WW XXIX Dor-en-Gaur

[Boromir88]

When I get back in the morning I'll do whatever I can to help. I'm going to ask you all to trust me, whether you do or not it's up to you. You should all know by now that I can get suspicion away from me in much craftier ways than posing as a hunter (or any gifted). The reason I may be left alive for a little bit is because the wolves are scared and indeed I am very much like the 'logical hunter.' And that's what makes me far more dangerous to the wolves at night, as I have a better chance of having a wolf on my list. Where if I'm lynched, it's one person that dies...so like I said don't lynch me.

I'll be back to start talking about suspects and all that good stuff. That's all I'll say further on the matter as there's more important things to get onto. You either trust me or you don't, if you decide you don't it'll be your own fault.

[Rikae]

One more thing:

Originally Posted by Durelin

And why bother apologizing for your mistake when it comes to Celuien? You voted for Volo, approving his lynching. If you really feel the need to apologize, why not apologize for your suspicion of Volo? Just doesn't make much sense to me.

I wasn't "apologizing for suspecting Cel". I saying she was my only lead last night and now I'm confused.
As for Volo, it was him or Boro when I came back from school. If Boro's the hunter, I made the best choice open to me.

[Durelin]

There was nothing saying you could only vote for those two...

[Rikae]

As I understand it, there were still retractable votes out there; Boro could still have been lynched.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Although I do find your first point against Rikae interesting and find that it might have some merit, I also find that you are taking this thing about Rikae's appologise a bit too far. (Durelin)

I think it is great that you pay atention to the small things, but this seems to be going a bit overboard. I know that when I find out that people I have suspected are indeed innocent, then I feel bad and want to appologise. Sometimes I do, sometimes I don't, so for me it does not seem like a particular suspiciouse thing to do, just a thing one sometimes do.

anyways I will leave you all in a bit and return when I have had some sleep. . . .I have a lot I need to work out about certain people.

[Rikae]

As promised...my list; and then to bed.

Durelin - She seems sincere; I get the feeling she's an ordo.
Thinlómien - not giving off a "different" vibe that I can see. She is a bit quieter than usual, but I trust her for now.
Kath - Always makes me vaguely uneasy; I'm beginning to think it's just her style.
Rune son of Bjarne - Can't be sure. Possiblly gifted or fanged?
Boromir88 - I'll trust him for now; in the future we'll see.
Mithalwen - She seems quite honest. I don't suspect her.
Lalwendë - She seems the same as last game; since she's so new, I doubt she would seem that way if she were evil.
Farael – Making me more and more uneasy. There is something forced about his posts I don't like.
Naria - Nothing to say.
Anguirel - Like I said, seems to be a bit too slippery.
Mormegil – Posting too little for Morm; suspicious.
Firefoot - Seemed to be "talking a lot and saying little" on day one, but today seems to be saying more of substance, and therefore less suspicious.
Eomer - Possible wolf flying under the radar.
Gil-Galad - Paranoid and loopy, but feels innocentish.

Top suspects: Farael, Anguirel, Morm.

[Durelin]

Eh, I don't want to leave everyone too bored, so...

++Rikae

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Yes that is right Morm, I only write things I do not belive. . . .I can honestly say that I did not see Boro's, post before it was linked and what I wrote was my emidiate thoughts on the subject.

anyways, this is totaly unimportant and not a sign of suspicion, but there was a part of your post I did not understand.

What did you mean by this, I cannot see the conection between this and what you said about voting me and I am just wondering if I missed something. (I hate not knowing what people talk about)

What I was talking about here is my approach to WW. Recently I decided to follow my instincts more. I used to analyze the minutia and get hung up on the minutia, now I just read flow and get a feel of the environment at the macro level and spot anomalies at that point. Something doesn't feel right with you. To be fair you seem to have taken over, to a degree, what Kath used to be for me...my perennial suspect. I'm a bit biased when it comes to you and my instincts may be wrong accordingly.

Reading Rikae does make me suspicious of her. Admittedly one of the reasons, not the only one mind you, is the way she listed you in her suspect list.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Rune son of Bjarne - Can't be sure. Possiblly gifted or fanged?

This is the kind of behavior that I've seen numerous times from lycanthropic cohorts. The, "well he may be guilty or innocent, I'm just not sure" talk. It's too wishy-washy for my tastes. Most wolves aren't in the business of attacking their fellows, though there are some amongst us who would and have done so I don't believe Rikae to be one of them.

She also concerns me for her concern over the fact that I'm not posting much. I stated prior to the game ever starting that I would be posting much less than normal and you acknowledged it. Now you are trying to use it against me. I have yet to read all of yesterday's post (sorry I started a new PC game and am spending way too much time on that and work is busy) but out of what I have seen this seems to be the truth.

Boro, I doubt he's guilty. I tend to trust him.

Firefoot and others who haven't played with Farael, this is par for the course. He is behaving rather normally, which is find something rather small and persue it doggedly to the bitter end. He has been correct but often his suspicions this early prove wrong. The problem is, if I remember correctly, he has been a wolf and behaved very similarly.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

This is the kind of behavior that I've seen numerous times from lycanthropic cohorts. The, "well he may be guilty or innocent, I'm just not sure" talk. It's too wishy-washy for my tastes.

I think you mis-interpret Rikae. She's not saying, "might be guilty, might be innocent", she's saying (IMO) that Rune seems to have a special role, good or bad. As it's known from experience, it's sometimes tricky to see the difference between gifteds and wolves; both may seem jumpy. What bothers me in her statement, is that she openly speculates about gifteds. Why would an innocent villager try to give wolves any ideas of the gifted's identities ie help the wolves in their who's gifted-speculation...? If I was an innocent Rikae and suspected that Rune's either gifted/fanged, I'd phrase it differently, for the village's sake, and wouldn't mention the gifteds at all. Either she's a rash innocent or a wolf or a cobbler.

Rikae seems always a bit too eager to launch a campaign against Ang after she's been accused to take the attention away from herself, but actually an innocent person could do that too. (That's wishy-washy for you, morm, I guess and that's what is called the (in)famous Lommy-flipflopping - however I personally think it's just thinking aloud and not single-mindedly concentrating on one aspect and forgetting the others. )

Overall, Rikae certainly needs to be watched.

I also suspect morm slightly. If there was a slip-under-the-radar-mormegil, it would be him in this game. He's much more quiet and - if I may say without offending - much less aggressive than usual.

As to the dagger guy... I think s/he's on our side, but s/he's a bit tricky since s/he seems to have a "license to kill". I think that clearly shows from the narration, s/he sees that Cel did not transform to a wolf, wouldn't that mean s/he was after wolves? But we can't known if s/he has unlimited license to kill, only Night1 license to kill or just one license to kill to use whenever s/he wants. I personally think the night1-thing most probable: this game would turn into mindless slaughtering, if s/he had unlimited license to kill + s/he'd have too much power and if s/he had just one kill to use whenever s/he will, I doubt s/he would have wanted to use it on Night2, when there's but the posts of one day to support your decidions, unless s/he was under serious murder/lynch threat.

Those are the first thoughts that popped to my head, unfortunately I must go now (since my speech lessons' feedback awaits and then I'll move from school to Noggie's place), but it will be only 2 hours at maximum that you'll have to wait for the return of my shiningly sheepish presence!

[Lalwendë]

So far I've not seen Gil doing anything odd today so my vote from last time may change. But once a funny feeling is there, it never goes away entirely, so I will keep watching I think.

Right now I'm suspicious of Durelin's sense of certainty. This is what happened on the first day, suspicions began and then a rollercoaster set in and we ended up lynching an innocent, one who I pointed out was far too 'clearly' suspicious. I will look again I think at the origins of Volo's lynching and see if I can work out who was the instigator. The other thing here is that Durelin suspects Rikae for suspecting Celuien at first - I think she was just making a stab in the dark because she's being analytical today (unlike yesterday when none of us had anything to go on).

One person is slightly weird today and that's Morm. Is he being honest that he's trying a new approach? Or is it because he has a 'special' role? Even though I don't know what he's usually like (verbose I presume) the very fact that he says he has 'changed' is odd. Glad he's more talkative though.

I'm pondering Boro, not as a suspect but for his strategy which is risky. Whether he is a Hunter or not is by the by I think as he has put the seed of that possibility into people's minds; it may bring him protection but as time goes on, if we don't get the wolves it might make the rest of us who manage to stay alive get increasingly suspicious. And if he's not the Hunter and the real Hunter stays alive that long, he or she may start up a lynch mob against Boro as the struggle to live becomes more desperate. Interesting. He's not a suspect yet, but he's certainly an enigma.

Who did this stabbing in the dark thing to poor Celuien? Lommy ruminates on this one. Is it mere accident that she is the first to do it at length? Everyone's shied away from any mention of it til now. Or is Rikae the villager with the golden dagger? Had she felt railroaded into changing her original vote for Celuien after Volo turned out to be innocent? More importantly, is all this trying to work out the golden dagger owner is a big distraction?

[Nogrod]

Sadly Naria will not be able to play the game. She will be removed from the lists.

She would have been an ordinary Villager...

[Thinlómien]

Sadly Naria will not be able to play the game. She will be removed from the lists.
She would have been an ordinary Villager..

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

More importantly, is all this trying to work out the golden dagger owner is a big distraction?

Even if it's not intended as one, it might become one. I think no one should concentrate on it too much. (In my opinion it can be discussed as long as it does not rob the attention from catching the wolves.) I think next night will show more about it.

Now, I'm off to read the this day through properly, hopefully a longer and more insightful post will follow.

[Mithalwen]

I'm here - will be back for longer later but this is not great .. Day 2 and we have lost a quarter of the village ...... Interesting choice of kills.... and I do want to trust Boro but having bawled out Farael in another place on the counterproductiveness of declaring as Hunter, I have been fretting that I made a mistake... however I really hope not...

[Thinlómien]

First off, I'm pretty a bit worried with the situation. 13 people, of who three are wolves. Not very bad for us yet, but as wolves get two kills per night and we keep lynching innocents, we might find ourselves dead sooner than we anticipated. As soon as we've got rid of one lycanthrope, we can take this easier: our doom will approach much more slowly, and in principle the numbers are in our side. (Original 19 players, which of innocents 16 and wolves 3; basicly pretty easy ww-situation for the good guys.)

Secondly, though last day there was plenty of talk, I still encourage people to speak up. I'd especially like to hear more from Eomer and Gil-Galad.

(You might notice I have an obsession to keep repeating what Roa_Aoife and Nogrod say, but she's killed and he's modding, so someone must keep reminding about these things. )

~*~

I agree with those who say Roa was killed because of her skills as a ww-player. Her powers of analysis are well known. Also, it occured to me, that she was pretty vocal, and she usually gets even more vocal when the game proceeds and that might be a little add to the reasons to kill her - for some persons. I know there are people (morm for example), who dislike reading hordes of pages of ww and to whose killing an analytical and intelligent villager who tends to have pretty much power in the village and who floods the thread. Who knows.

Mac then. Well, he's known to be an intelligent and helpful villager too. And he's also something who could be called a "secondary intellect" (forgive me for the choice of words ) and thus the wolves might have expected him to be less probably protected (being less obvious wolf kill) and thus just he's dead. It also might be that the villagers normally considered "great players" are wolves and they're trying to kill intelligent people who are not easily lead/deceived out of the way. For such a kill Mac is ideal.

It also might have been that Mac and/or Roa were killed because of their opinions. The wolves might want to eliminate the villagers who don't think the way they do or who suspect them to silence them. And then there's the possibility of a frame-up (though there's no seer in the game), of course. Now that I've gone through all the possible reasons that come to my mind, I can conclude that the first ones I came up with both of the dead separately are the ones I believe in. Thus I also conclude, that we shouldn't dwell on their deaths anymore (haha, I'm well aware of showing you bad example myself), before there's been more kills and we can see a pattern, if there's one.

~*~

Originally Posted by Firefoot

The word I would use to describe her [Lommy] is “happy” – or maybe “light-hearted” would be better…

I bet that's only because the over-abusing of smilies...

Originally Posted by Rikae

Kath - Always makes me vaguely uneasy; I'm beginning to think it's just her style.

Believe me, it well might be. I feel just the same!

~*~

Originally Posted by Ff

The one thing that struck me about him was that he was the first one to really go after Volo and was the first one to vote for him (at a time when numerous other people had votes), but as the Day drew to a close, he backed off of this suspicion. This to me seems very much like a wolf, basically fobbing his vote off on an innocent (who did, admittedly, appear very wolvish) whom he figured would not be lynched. He’s definitely on my more suspicious list.

That is well perceived, and I agree it seems a bit fishy... *adds Ang to the "to be watched" category*

Durelin seems pretty quick to attack Rikae. It makes me feel uneasy about her. When little suspicion for Rikae appears, she's eager to jump on and bring up new points against her. Of course an innocent with some existing suspicions would get extra boost from others agreeing with her, but Durelin's a bit too uncautious...

Originally Posted by Rikae, about Ang's views in an analysis

b) Voting for “a random person, probably Durelin” is a contradiction. [But is it really? Random just means he chose for no real reason; it doesn't mean he didn't choose yet. Actually, choosing early makes it more likely to be random.]

There's two possibilities to define "random vote" in ww, and it always makes people confused. The first is that it's random, you cast dic etc. The second way to make a "random" vote is to choose someone for a stupid or intentionally unreasonable reason, for example "I don't like her occupation" or "he got me killed in the last game" or "he's Nilp" or "she used the word 'pancake' ". Volo apparently meant the latter one, and Anguirel understood "random vote" to mean the previous one and that's why he attacked him. Or that's how I see the situation.

I'm inclined to believe Boro's claim for a few days. Ruling someone partly out from the suspect list really helps, a bluff like that would be a bit too bold (maybe) and I trust my gut feeling. Last autumn, Boro was twice or thrice a wolf and everytime I got vague "bad feelings" about him, and that didn't happen when he was innocent. I'm not getting "bad feelings" from him right now, so I'm inclined to concentrate on other people for now.

EDIT: xed with Mith

[Thinlómien]

I don't think he should be trusted. Last game, Holbywolf kept voting me single-mindedly (like Farael seems to start doing now) and she managed slipping under the radar beautifully. People started to disregard her votes ("oh, it's just the regular Lommy-vote") and she managed to avoid analysis (which usually follows the lynch-bandwagons). Speaking of which, I'm very surprised no one has yet attacked yesterday's Volo-voters screaming that wolves hide in bandwagons...

[Thinlómien]

I decided to make something summary-ish.

Might be innocent
Mith - I've no reason to suspect her this far.
Boro - as I said, I'm inclined to believe him innocent.

Middle zone
Kath - the more I think of it, the more I become convinced she's actually innocent and I suspected her yesterday just because of her general playing style... Anyway, I'd like to hear more from her before making any solid conclusions.
Rune - he's just like he's normally and doesn't make me particularly suspicious, but I'm aware I might trust him on too futile grounds... It's pretty difficult to form a proper picture of him.
Gil - basicly, I can't say anything about him, but he's pretty normal. Speak up, Gil, even if you have schoolwork, so have many other people!
Firefoot - I myself see no particular reason to suspect her. Good points have been made against her by others anyway, so I can't banish the thought there might be something wrong with her after all.

Wary of
Lal - there's something in her or in her general attitude that doesn't sit right with me. I don't know what it is or why it makes me feel uneasy, but I just think it's better not to trust her too much. (And no one else either, for that matter. )
Eomer - like always, he seems a bit suspicious. I'd like to hear more of him.
Rikae - I agree she seems a bit suspicious and she does some things that make me uneasy, but she also makes things that make me think she's innocent. Anyway, she's more on the bad side in my opinion.

Fish
Durelin - too eager to attack Rikae, also there's something evil about her that I can't put my finger on.
Farael - see my previous post. I know he tends to be weird, but I like it more when he's vocal, full of theories and weird than this slip-under-the-radar-ish single-minded weirdness.
Ang - also vaguely suspicious. Despite her own suspiciousness, Durelin makes me think there's something wrong with him.
morm - I still think he's as close as someone with his personality and reputation can get to slip-under-the-radar.

I don't think anyone on the last category overtly suspicious. The more I play werewolf, the less assured I generally become about my suspects. (Ang, don't say anything about the last game, it was an exception. ) The wolves - whoever they are - are hiding their furs quite well: there are no "obvious wolves".

I don't even think that all the three wolves are some Durelin+Anguirel+Farael+morm -combo, but I think some of them might be wolf/wolves; they are the ones that look most suspicious to me right now. So: if you asked me "who are the wolves?", I couldn't answer, but if you asked me "who are wolvish?" I'd answer with the names I just mentioned. Hopefully this makes some sense, because I can't explain it better than that.

[Mithalwen]

Lom the wolves seem to have 3 kill per night ......

I am interested by the choices... and wonder if each wolf got a free choice or if this was a group decision. I know that wolves sometimes go for quiet folk on night one to give few clues ... this clearly wasn't the case.... so I do wonder if there isn't at least one wolf among the Day 1 quiet folk. I know Gil, Morm and Kath cite RL but that doesn't mean they are automatically innocent. So the wolves picked folk they were scared of .... Celuien tends to have very reliable instincts and she seldom attracts suspicion so you can see why wolves would want her out of the way.

Roa is a slightly different case. While she is one of the most tactically aware players she is also someone who is more likely to attract suspicion simply because she can be so convincing as a wolf. The wolves obviously wanted her out of the way immediately rather than hoping to engineer a lynch. So was Roa on to something? And who did the rangers protect I wonder... Day one needs to be looked at in these terms I think.

BTW I have started removing my sig to save space on a long thread.. might make (re)reading easier...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mith

Lom the wolves seem to have 3 kill per night ......

I disagree; I interpreted the three deaths the way that they (wolves) have two and that there's a mysterious golden dagger -person (who's on the village's side), that has a license to kill, or at least one had one last night.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

BTW I have started removing my sig to save space on a long thread.. might make (re)reading easier...

Have you?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

There is obviously confusion about the roles. It seems as though there is a villager with a free kill, sort of like a good Werebear; but I have been presuming there is a Seer too.

[Mithalwen]

Yes Lommy .. I just got distracted by something you said about Lalwende and have been checking it out.


I had a impression that we hadn't heard much from her and yet I looked at the lists and saw she had posted a lot. Then I checked out her posts and they are not insubstantial as such but not actually giving anything of herself away. So much vote monitoring that I had to check her role to make sure she wasn't a pollster or statistician. Her earlier posts are all comments on others' opinions it seems rather than her own. In other places, seeming super helpful people have turned out to be wolves making their presence felt wihtout giving anything away.

This ringing major alarm bells and she is now my prime suspect. I should be around later almost to the end so I don't have to vote now .. want to do more reading and obviously Lalwende should be around more later...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If the wolves presumed there was a Seer it is worth noting that they took out two Gil-Galad voters. Macalaure also went after Rune strongly at the start but then cooled off towards the end of the day.

If they just went for them because they are clever and were making sense then it doesn't tell us much.

I'm surprised Roa wasn't protected: she seemed to have gained trust very early on.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I disagree; I interpreted the three deaths the way that they (wolves) have two and that there's a mysterious golden dagger -person (who's on the village's side), that has a license to kill, or at least one had one last night.

Oh well I suppose I thought that was the hunter .... and may give a different perspective on the kills .. fact is though 3 innocents are still dead... so the situation isn't that much better...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

If the wolves presumed there was a Seer ....I'm surprised Roa wasn't protected: she seemed to have gained trust very early on.

I am suprised Roa wasn't protected too .. unless the Rangers cannot protect against this golden dagger bod.... it GDB is a (currently misguided avenging angel rataher than the hunter)

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm surprised Roa wasn't protected: she seemed to have gained trust very early on.

The only explanation I can come up with it is that all the rangers wanted to spread the protection and everyone assumed someone else was protecting Roa...

Why do you think the wolves would think there was a seer? I think Nogrod quite clearly hinted that there was to be no seer, and if you think it from the mod's point of view, wouldn't the villagers be too overpowered with a seer and three rangers?

edit: xed with Mith x2

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Where did Nogrod hint that? Without a Seer there's practically nothing to go on.

[Mithalwen]

Of course with 3 rangers the wolves may have gone for "people they would like out of the way but weren't yet conspicuous enough for protection".. that makes the choices more logical ....

I guess if a/the rangers trusted Boro they might have protected him since a hunter kill at this stage is more likely to be wrong and unwittingly help the wolves.

And on the subject of Boro I did wonder if I might inadvertantly have given the impression that I knew for certain about his innocence when I defended him... my actions were based on instinct not fact.....

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Where did Nogrod hint that? Without a Seer there's practically nothing to go on.

I think it was when he was discussing the ideas for the game.... way back..

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Wolves don't know that for sure, though. So perhaps they were going for a possible Seer. Maybe a long-shot.

[Mithalwen]

Well yes because whatever the role of GDB, there are 2 other gifted we have no clues on... or do we...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Well yes because whatever the role of GDB, there are 2 other gifted we have no clues on... or do we...

Right, and another of them is evil, unless I've misunderstood something.

I'll go to study spanish, I'll be back sometime later toDay.

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

This ringing major alarm bells and she is now my prime suspect. I should be around later almost to the end so I don't have to vote now .. want to do more reading and obviously Lalwende should be around more later...

I have been here all along my dear.

I was adding up votes because I was getting very excited about being in my first really big game, and I'm one of those sad saps who stays up on election nights watching the incoming results and the Swingometer (with lots of beer, like it's a sport...). Psephology. The horrible thing is, I've been getting worried that someone would start suspecting me because of butting in to Mac's 'thing' on the last 'Day' with the stats and now he's dead! I'm in two minds now about posting the (clumsy) analyses of the odds that I'd figured out this morning

Or, is this a turnaround strategy from Mithalwen after I mentioned late on Day One that her vociferous support of Boro was very noticeable? Now I did suspect that something was very fishy indeed about this. It was so upfront that it went beyond bluffing. I suspected that Mithalwen could have been one of the Rangers at first, defending Boro (which made me feel at ease last Night because I'm still not onboard with that anti-Boro bandwagon), but now I am beginning to think that Mithalwen may be some kind of Cobbler? That would not necessarily mean Boro was a Wolf, but Mithalwen might think he is?

Now I'm seriously confused. I might go and get my marmalade sandwich and ponder some more.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Scenario: Wolf Gil-Galad, much to the evil-doers displeasure, is harrassed on Day One. He gets quite close to being lynched. The other wolves know the slayings of Roa and Macalaure will point to Gil but they accept that the village will probably want to lynch him sooner or later; and so they kill a couple of Gil voters in the hope that one is a Seer.

[Kath]

Why do you think the wolves would think there was a seer? I think Nogrod quite clearly hinted that there was to be no seer, and if you think it from the mod's point of view, wouldn't the villagers be too overpowered with a seer and three rangers?

It's possible that the inclusion of whatever this role is where someone has, as you say Lommy, 'a license to kill' might even that out, as with both Hunter and apparently this one there is always the chance of killing an innocent villager. We know there are three Rangers and three 'others'. Boro is telling us one of those 'other' roles is a Hunter, another is the one with the golden dagger ... what's the third? Do we have any clues from the narration? Since it doesn't appear that we do we can only speculate, but there is nothing to say that we don't have a Seer either. Would certainly be helpful!

I don't have a huge amount of time right now so I'm going to give my opinions on the villagers and then hop off. I will be back later and will be around for the end of the Day so I'll not vote yet.

Lommy - is floodposting with such glee that I don't think she can be a wolf. If she were I get the feeling that she would be more careful over what she was saying and so post far less frequently.

Rune

Boro - well we have his assurances that he is the Hunter. No one else has come forth to deny this and it is a role that benefits the village more from being out in the open, so I am going to believe him.

Mith - feels innocent to me. There is none of the over-defensiveness or mild panicking that usually accompanies her posts when she is anything but an ordo. Also, if she had any role I don't believe she would be so confused over all the others.

Lal - I think is still finding her feet. She was overly defensive at first but she has been coming up with her own theories and has been quite decisive. If Lal was a wolf this would be her first time and I don't believe she would be so confident.

Farael - seems to be playing in his usual style. Slight problem there as his usual style is the same whether he's innocent or guilty. He almost feels less agressive than usual though, so perhaps he is doing what I thought Lommy might if she were a wolf and is playing it slightly safe. I'll look back at him later.

morm - I love this new playing style! I don't suspect him at all at the moment, but that's actually because I feel to have barely heard from him, which is not something I am used to with him. When I come back I'll look through the thread to make sure that's just a feeling and not actually the truth.

Gil - ah Gil, it has been a while since I've played with him and he does seem amazingly more into the game than I recall. It makes me really not want to lynch him, but it also makes me quite suspicious. I can believe that he has a role, I don't know which side it's for.

These are the people I can't get a handle on at the moment:
Durelin
Rikae
Eomer
Ang

So, when I return, I will take a good look at those four as well as morm and Farael, and probably Gil.

EDIT: Cross-posted with about half a page of people.

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Scenario: Wolf Gil-Galad, much to the evil-doers displeasure, is harrassed on Day One. He gets quite close to being lynched. The other wolves know the slayings of Roa and Macalaure will point to Gil but they accept that the village will probably want to lynch him sooner or later; and so they kill a couple of Gil voters in the hope that one is a Seer.

I was a Gil voter, and I'm still keeping an eye on him as I've already said this morning, and oddly I've come under some suspicion today for things that aren't weird in any way. If it's the same group going after his voters, then this would show up in some of the names who voted for Volo (or even Boro?) yesterday?

Anguirel also voted for Gil - notably changing at the last minute. Watch it, Ang, I note that Lommy who was picking me apart was also looking at you!

I'm waiting for the lynch mob to descend now.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

My problem seems to be that I have come in to this case baised. . . I have had a tendency to be suspiciouse of the same people as I have been in previouse games. . .and being sympathetic towards people I have had some sort of connection with in other games (or on other threads) and it is troubles ome. Because as I try not to be baised I risk closing my eyse for the people I normaly suspect and be overly suspiciouse of people just because I feel good about them.

So I am split between if I should search through my "feel good list" or my "feel bad list". . . .

Now Gil has been a subject of attention today and I must say that he has gotten a bit of my attention as well. He has not posted much, but that is what could be expected and he did warn us of thise, what bothers me is that he seems to lack the controvercie that normaly gathers around him. This makes me un-easy and think that he for once is actually trying to stay alive for as long as possible. He may be a wolf and I might end up voting for him, it is too early to say now. . . .

[Lalwendë]

I won't be dissuaded from doing an analysis which is what I enjoy.

Yesterday's Votes
Gil
Durelin, Anguirel (x-ed from Volo), Roa, Me, Mac

Boro
Gil, Kath, Volo

Volo
Mithalwen, Farael, Eomer, Morm, Celuien (x-ed from Naria), Firefoot (x-ed from Boro), Rikae (x-ed from Anguirel)

Dead
Volo - lynched
Mac - slain
Roa - slain
Celuien - stabbed

Mac and Roa were both Gil voters. I think we were all dodgy about the way Volo got set about by the mob too, with Anguirel changing at a late stage. Nobody here seems much in cahoots aside from a feeling that Volo was being so over the top he couldn't possibly be a wolf. Incidentally, there's an interesting game dynamic of those who believe in outright 'honesty' and those who suspect it as bluster.

Volo came in all guns blazing and he was an easy target really. A blameless lynch? I'm not so sure today. There have to have been, statistically speaking, some innocents involved in voting for him. With seven votes, we can take away Celuien leaving six votes. Would all of the wolves go for one lynch? Has that ever happened? There are a fair few names in here that have not as yet raised any suspicions with me. Mithalwen and Morm I have already mentioned as raising doubts for the first time today, and I have been considering Farael but there's nothing much to go on yet. I doubt Eomer would be silly enough to raise this notion if he was a Wolf. Or would he? Bearing in mind I am new to this? Of course Celuien was innocent. That Rikae switched from Anguirel suggests she was swept along as if she had been in this 'camp' she'd just have stuck with Anguirel, him being an enemy. But Firefoot is interesting as she switches from the Volo-lynch-camp rival, Boro. So from this I deduct Mithalwen, Morm, Firefoot as definitely fishy and Farael worth a second look. If Gil is a wolf then we have a list of five there, which narrows the odds.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

So I am split between if I should search through my "feel good list" or my "feel bad list". . . .

Poor Rune, I feel the same way and it's horrible, fortunately I've almost got over it toDay. (Yes, Rune was on my sympathising-list... )

Lalwendë, because of the few posts you've made during my absence I feel less uneasy about you. But I didn't quite get what you were saying in #234...

~*~

Now, about the special roles
On the admin thread, all quotes by Modgrod

There will be three additional characters that may benefit the village or the wolves, depending on their luck and judgement.

Of those three at least yet undisclosed characters:

One of them would be new to this game. At least I haven't seen one like that before. The two others would be more familiar, but with a little twist. One of them might have some real influence on how the things turn out, another one would have her/his share over the fortunes of the village and with the third one everything would be a bit more subtle. My initial idea was and is that I would not disclose these roles to you before the game but that you might get some hints / revelations through the Nightly narrations about them.

Of those three undisclosed ones two would basically be on the side of the villagers and one on the side of the wolves. They could all benefit the cause they are fighting for but they could also harm their cause. The one being on the wolves' side would not be counted as a wolf but as a villager in the last Days tally, but would win along with the wolves if they win.

So, with these quotes, Boro's revealment and the narrational hints I think the three mysterious roles are:
1) Some sort of hunter = Boro - on the village's side.
2) The golden dagger guy who has (at least to some extent) a license to kill - on the village's side, probably both the one who has "influence" and the "new one" (referring to Nogrod's words about the roles in the admin thread).
3) Some version of/ a sort of cobbler - on the wolves' side.

~*~
Back to spanish, but again, I'll be back.

[Anguirel]

To recover from such a hideous Night, we really need to look for wolves. That means no theorising about a Seer who certainly does not exist - one of the main experimental points of this game was to see how well multiple Rangers could function without a Seer, I think. We need to concentrate on the crux of the problem.

At least we have many known innocents - Macalaure, Roa, Celuien, Volo and pretty much Boro too (I also see no reason to challenge his status as the hunter.) On the minus side, Celuien's death almost certainly doesn't lead back to a wolf. If this dagger-wielder insists on leaving corpses with useless trails like that one, they could be a real hindrance. Let's hope, as Thinlomien guessed, that they have only one kill.

I will post what I think about the votes as soon as poss; they are probably our most useful fund of information. For the record, I'm inclined to think Gil-Galad innocent too. I'm not at all sure that a single wolf came under serious threat last night.

One interesting thing to observe is that yesterday the general mood seemed to be that Firefoot was suspicious. By this morning the general mood veers towards me, I get the feeling. Durelin was a loud proponent of both causes. Hmmm.

[Gil-Galad]

i am inclined to Thinlomiens posiston of Fareal using that method to slip under the radar...

without any other suspicons( i'm such a loving guy sometimes) i must submit my vote



++Fareal

[Lalwendë]

Lalwendë, because of the few posts you've made during my absence I feel less uneasy about you. But I didn't quite get what you were saying in #234...

I was speculating on what Eomer observed, looking at the patterns of behaviour against or pro those who voted for Gil yesterday. Doing that little analysis though, I've realised you are probably not one of the ones who may or may not be in the group acting against Gil voters. Farael is in this group seemingly, without going deeper into his posts, and yet he is quite vehemently against you, Lommy. Why would he bluff to that extent? It would just make any plot far too baroque and complex.

I think you are right on those roles, especially going by Nogrod's narration as the day began. All this speculation on what they might be is smokescreening as it seems more or less clear, all apart from which side everyone is on for sure and how much people know about who has what role. And what purpose does it serve if we root out Rangers? It would only help the wolves. I think it would be safer too for the Hunter and the dagger person to remain quiet, even if whoever has this dagger is a bit scary as it's like having a lynch opportunity that's not subject to a vote so we're all vulnerable if they get it wrong.