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Old 08-12-2012, 09:13 PM   #121
Inziladun
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Well, I've been waiting to see if anyone had any concerns I could answer, or anything. I'm sorry, I just need to go to bed now.

If possible I'll try to check in before DL, but don't count on it.

Choose well. I'm done regardless, so good luck.
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Old 08-12-2012, 09:15 PM   #122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inziladun View Post
Well, I've been waiting to see if anyone had any concerns I could answer, or anything. I'm sorry, I just need to go to bed now.

If possible I'll try to check in before DL, but don't count on it.

Choose well. I'm done regardless, so good luck.
I'll do what I can, Dun. I hope you sleep well.
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Old 08-12-2012, 09:25 PM   #123
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Copper sounds genuine and innocent.

Pitch, meanwhile, looks less than so:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.
That's a good way of playing a reverse psychology trick on inocents - "they wouldn't think that a wolf would be dumb enough to add (not even correct... add) to another's statement something that could incriminate him" line of thought. A kind of bluff. A wolf would not emphasize his own guiltiness, right? That must make him innocent etc.

I don't like it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.
And this makes the lights flash red a lot. Kit could, eventually, name the innocent or not name him based on how she feels at the moment. But the more she prolongs the moment of revelation the more interaction and reaction we have to glean information of. On the other hand, a wolf can potentially save their hides by erasing this interaction before it has begun. When I think back to previous instances of such a situation happening it was a wolf who would ask this prompting question.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna View Post
7: She lists our odds again. Stating After reading her scenarios this comment doesn't look too good. The village is so small, losing an innocent through a lynch should always matter.
But that's not what copper said. She was stating the possibilities of a Pitch-modfire or no Pitch-modfire. Not a lynch. And she said that it does not make a difference in the short-term, since no one can stop the wolves at night, and for the villagers it wouldn't matter if they lost during the Day r the following Night. But she said that it'd the worst-case scenario and that it would indeed matter in the long-term.

And I think you're being too harsh with us ordinary villagers. It's a big decision, after all. Let us digest all the information and turn it over in our heads a couple times.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna View Post
I am being quite angry with this village and am going to keep my dream to myself. It's thanks to Zil who refuses to go down, but just wants to confuse things. I'm frustrated and angry. I also have nothing to lose but my own life at this point.
But the village has a victory to lose without that name - not immediately, but eventually?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
In this suggestion, Pitchwife himself would be the packmate he's suggesting Nessa threw away her vote on. Was this a typo, or something?
More like a moment of objectiveness - or reverse psychology. (See above)


Incidentally, can someone please remind me the policy for tied votes?

---

Now after giving my two cents on the previous comments i can adress the Seer issue.

I am more inclined to believe Kit in this. My reasons:

1. She could have been lynched toDay, but it wasn't such a life-or-death situation that she had to save her hide with a false reveal. She wasn't yelling "lynch Zil instead" on the way to the gallows. She kind of said it out of the blue.

2. She revealed first.

3. What Shasta said about naming the ordo.

4. Zil as a fake Seer would of course name her as a wolf, and it's just too convenient to name Nerwen. Not impossible, but just sooo convenient to name an opponent and a dead person.

5. Since Zil is 50% chance a wolf and I suspect Pitch as the last wolf, it looks too much like the two of them are pushing a Kitwaggon together.


So pretty much Zil has my vote, unless something happens overnight that makes the world (or at least my mind) turn over.

If Kit is lynched regardless and turns out innocent, Zil would be the next one to go and I will be looking really hard at Pitch. However, if by some miracle she turns out to be wolf, Zil will likely not survive the Night and Pitch gets off the hook.


Edit: xed with a bunch
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Old 08-12-2012, 09:55 PM   #124
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To elaborate on my #2 reason (or say what I left unsaid in the previous post): since Zil is second, he's in a self-defence position. He'd do so regardless of alignment. But since Kit revealed first, she's not directly and this moment defending herself, but rather just putting the facts out there.


On a different note, upon rereading his posts Pitch might not look as bad as he seemed to me earlier. There are many what-ifs and holes of other kinds in the picture I had in mind earlier. That's not to say he's off the hook completely by a far shot, but perhaps not so suspicious as to make the siren turn on. Kind of like the orange category rather than the red.
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Old 08-12-2012, 11:04 PM   #125
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This took me forever to write, and I still haven't come to any conclusions yet.

Summary of Inziladun

DAY 1:
1. Asks me if I've given a pre-emptive defence.
2. Says I'm making a point of distancing myself from the wolves, and that the upside of a small village is that suspicious people are more likely to be wolves than Radagast.
3. Says it's harder for submarines to stay low in a small village. Asks for sub-hunter volunteers.
4. A few small things including "Kit strikes me as a bit off, but it's really a thin thing."
4. Explains more about sub-hunters. Thanks me for clarifying some things about my behaviour.
5. Says I caused an eyebrow raise but he's not going to vote for me on Day 1. Of Kitanna says she "still gives some ill-defined feeling of unease, but that's all. " Considers voting for Shasta or Sally, seemingly joking.
6. Responds to Kitanna's call for his reasons. "Just the feel of the first couple of posts. Like I said, it's pretty thin."
7. Goes to bed, hopes to be back before deadline to vote.
8. Briefly mentions everyone but Shasta and Galadriel. Says he was trying to use me as wolf bait earlier. Wonders who to vote for: Kitanna, Sally or Nessa.
9. Votes Kitanna. Says "If she turns out evil, Nerwen, and especially Nessa, might be packmates. If innocent, Sally will look pretty bad in my eyes."

Day 2.

1. Sees no reason for Nerwen to have been killed. Of his vote, says he "decided that it was more unlikely Sally as a wolf would have latched onto Kit the way she did, than it was that Kit herself was evil. I wasn't all that enthused about voting Kit, I just didn't see any better options." Says things would have changed if he'd seen Nessa's vote.
2. Says "What I said about Coppermirror I saw as both a noteworthy mention, as well as an opportunity to see if anyone else suspiciously latched onto it.
My words about Kit had no such secondary thought behind them." Had thought yesterDay that "it might be that Nerwen, by casting suspicion on Sally for voting Kit, and Nessa for echoing it, might be packmates of Kit".
3. Says "Nessa's vote looks inexplicable. I suppose it's possible she put in a vote for a packmate-Pitch".
4. After Kitanna's post, he claims to be the Seer. Says he voted for Kitanna on Night 1 and was gunning for her with the "vague suspicion". Claims his dream last night was Nerwen.
5. Tried to be vague enough that the wolves wouldn't kill him, but to give enough info that villagers could go after her after his death. Thought that "Nerwen might have been trying to raise Sally as an alternative lynch to Kit" and dreamed of her for that reason.
6. Votes for Kitanna.
7. Says people are free to ask questions.
8. Gives his opinions of guilt/innocence.

Of me: probably innocent.
Of G55: probably innocent.
Of Sally: doesn't strike him as a likely wolf.
Of Shasta: doesn't come to a firm conclusion. Mistrusts him in general. Wonders why he would vote for Nessawolf if he's also a wolf.
Of Pitch: finds him enigmatic. Likes his skepticism in sorting between the Seers. Wonders why Nessa went for him: a throwaway vote, or a wolf wanting to vote for a packmate who was unlikely to be lynched?
Of Eomer: trips his radar. Thinks Eomer deliberately misunderstood his intentions with his plan earlier. "his vote for Sally could be his picking up on what Nerwen had said, trying to divert things away from Nessa"

9. Leaves to go to bed. "If possible I'll try to check in before DL, but don't count on it. "

Summary of Kitanna

DAY 1:
1. Two very trivial posts with little content. Understandable given the point in time. Leaves.
2. Comes back, says it seems as if not much has happened and she'll be reading what's happened.
3. Asks for a reason for Inzil's vague feelings of suspicion. "I'd like a reason. I've said almost nothing."
4. Says there's not much she can say that hasn't been said and resaid.
5. Says Eomer must know the game has started. (Not suspicious.)
6. "I guess I woke up just in time to see votes garnered against me for being vaguely uncomfortable and creepy." Says will probably vote for Inzil as doesn't like his vague feeling and doesn't like the way he claimed to have tried baiting people with me and not her.
7. Votes for Inzil. "I don't trust anything he's said. I'm especially annoyed that he claimed to "bait" Coppermirror, but accused me."

DAY 2:
1. Claims to be the Seer, and claims that she's seen Inzil is a wolf. Says she assumed she would be lynched yesterDay and almost didn't make it.
2. Claims to have dreamt of an innocent on Night 1, and Inzil on Night 2. Says she has a terrible record as a Seer and that sacrificing herself now makes sense.
3. Says that there's nothing she can do to convince us of her innocence over Zil's fake reveal, and that Zil wants us to waste the day. Says that Zil's other dream is conveniently dead. Refuses to give the name of a living known innocent to a village which doesn't trust her.
4. Responds to Pitchwife's concern about why she won't reveal the Innocent: "I've given you a wolf already. And if that still gets me lynched I don't feel inclined to help this village further. I will reveal my dream if this village trusts me enough to lynch Zil." and "You may all waste the day trying to decide who you want to believe. I have nothing left to say on the topic. Once I get back to my house I will concentrate on finding the third wolf."
5. Analyses a number of villagers.

Of me: "That makes me wary, but I'm not sold on her as guilty. I'm not convinced she's innocent either. I'd like to see what else she has to say".
Of Shasta: Thinks he looks slightly innocent because he gave the first vote for Nessa. Doesn't like that he didn't give much of a reason for that vote.
Of Sally: Says she looks like a frustrated innocent crunched for time.
Of Galadriel55: Doesn't know what to make of her. Agrees with her point that a vote for someone who isn't there is easy to hide behind. Thinks it's interesting so many of her suspects are dead, and though she can see her steering votes to packmates, doesn't know if it would happen on Day 1.
Of Eomer: Thinks he may well be Wolf#3. Wants a closer watch kept on him regardless of what happens toDay.
Of Pitch: "Pitch is probably innocent."

She also adds that "I am being quite angry with this village and am going to keep my dream to myself. It's thanks to Zil who refuses to go down, but just wants to confuse things. I'm frustrated and angry. I also have nothing to lose but my own life at this point."

6. Responds to Sally's vote for her with a mock vote for herself. "Just don't kill Sally. She's my other packmate."

This post is getting long, so I'm going to consider my suspicions in a second one. (I still have to write it! This is taking quite some time.)

Anyway, my initial position was one of suspicion for Inzil because it seemed as if a wolf-Kitanna would have little to gain from coming forward. But once Kitanna started posting more about being the Seer, she started sounding really suspicious for her sudden anger at the village and refusal to name the other known innocent (...but I don't see what a wolf would have to gain from that). I'm not confident enough to come to any conclusions yet. I want to consider everything carefully. I'm going to get back to a proper analysis now.

But for the meantime, Kitanna, if you're around now and if you're the Seer, why are you angry with the village? Why are you abandoning us? Please come back and give us the name of the known innocent.

Unfortunately I wasn't here early enough to ask Inzil questions. Although I haven't got any questions in mind yet, I'm sure I will soon.
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Old 08-13-2012, 12:17 AM   #126
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Question

Okay, I have some questions now. My question for Kitanna about why she got angry with the village so early still stands, but I've got some more. If anyone who can answer them happens to be around, please respond, because answers to these will help me a lot.

Inzil, toDay before Kitanna came forward as the Seer, you seemed to downplay your suspicion of her. Why did you do that, and why didn't you come forward as the Seer toDay yourself beforehand?

Everyone else...If you know, can you tell me whether or not Kitanna's sudden frustrated reaction towards the village is consistent with what you know of her? I've read old stories about other villages with werewolves in them, of course...and a few of them have descendants in this very village. But really, those are very old stories. (It doesn't help me much to know how someone might react back in 2006!)

As things stand, the votes are

Kitanna (3), Inzil (1)

Kitanna for Inzil
Inzil for Kitanna
Pitchwife for Kitanna
Sally for Kitanna

Galadriel says "So pretty much Zil has my vote".
Eomer has yet to vote.
Shasta has yet to vote.
I have yet to vote.
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Old 08-13-2012, 01:40 AM   #127
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Would it not be likely that, were Kitanna a wolf, they would have killed obvious-Seer Inzil last night? I'm inclined to believe Kitanna at this stage. But it doesn't really matter because they'll both be dead by tomorrow. We need to find the third wolf.

For my money, Coppermirror and G55 are probably innocent. Their votes for Nessa were crucial.
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Old 08-13-2012, 01:52 AM   #128
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I don't necessarily believe all of the theories I've written below. But here:

If Inziladun is the wolf and Kitanna the Seer (speculation)

- Zil may have backed off on his suggestions because he realised he was in danger of getting lynched this Day.
- It was sensible for Kit to come forward immediately.
- Zil had no choice but to come out as a fake Seer.
- It was overly convenient that Zil claimed to dream of Nerwen. He may have thought he was sure to go down, and didn't want to reveal any more innocents.
- He remained calm while Kit lost her temper, and gave away her advantage. A wolf would have a better chance of keeping calm.

Both Kitanna and Inziladun have given lists of those they find suspicious. If the Seer, Kitanna must have hidden the innocent in the list.

I think that if Kitanna is the Seer, she's withholding the known innocent's name because that person will without a doubt be taken in the night if she does. She seems to have had a bad run of Seer-ship in the past. Maybe she was sure she would be lynched and this is why she will not name the innocent.

If Kitanna is the wolf and Inziladun the Seer (speculation)

- Zil may have backed off on his suggestions because he realised he was in danger of getting lynched this Day.
- Kitanna wanted to draw out the Seer, as Pitchwife suggested.
- OR she already thought that Inzil was the Seer, and thought she could get him lynched without using up a Night kill. (Risky...)
- The wolves were in extreme danger toDay from the Seer. A good strategy would be to throw suspicion on the probable innocents, and eliminate the Seer. (But then again, Zil was sure to look like the Seer. It's very risky to go after him toDay rather than last Night.)
- Either way, Zil had no choice but to come forward as the Seer.
- Kit's sudden anger is a calculated attempt to make herself look innocent.
- She's not giving away the name of a "known innocent" (or fake innocent...) because she doesn't want to hand us information. (? I don't think that makes sense. Well, perhaps it's simply a confusion tactic.)
- She did this now because she needs to distract us from catching the third wolf.

I'm troubled because whether or not Inzil is Seer or Wolf, it made some sense for him to be hedging his bets on the first day with what he said at first was a plan to use me as bait but later said that it was all aimed at catching a dreamed-of Kitanna-wolf. Whatever happened he could claim either option.

Both of them have gone through their suspicions. That's what I think a Seer would do. They are both casting suspicion on people.

Honestly I find both our possible Seers very suspicious. I don't feel comfortable being the person to bring Kitanna to 4 votes out of 8, ensuring either a Kitanna lynch or a tie (which would be decided randomly). My gut tells me Kitanna, and my head tells me Inzil, and I don't know which to go with. By now I've spent about 5 hours looking at this, and I'm none the wiser, but much more tired and out of patience. So I'm going to cop out on this and leave it up to the three other people who have yet to vote. We'll know soon enough who's telling the truth, I suppose, even if the circumstances aren't ideal. I may or may not be back before the deadline.

++Inzil
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Old 08-13-2012, 03:01 AM   #129
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Might as well do this now.

++ INZILADUN
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Old 08-13-2012, 03:49 AM   #130
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Current votes: Kitanna (3), Inziladun (3)

In order of placement:

Kitanna for Inziladun
Inziladunfor Kitanna
Pitchwife for Kitanna
Sally for Kitanna
Coppermirror for Inziladun
Eomer for Inziladun

Galadriel and Shasta are the only ones yet to vote.

I've thought about it some more, and I'm now reasonably happy with my vote for Inziladun.
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Old 08-13-2012, 04:16 AM   #131
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Which means I'll be casting a deciding(ish) vote.

However, it's an easy one at this stage of the game.

++Inzil

Besides everything that's left me in favor of Kit as the real Seer, G55 (should she return) was already planning a vote for Inzil. Tying it up would be silly.
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Old 08-13-2012, 05:07 AM   #132
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I went to bed angry and woke up feeling better.

Sally was Night 1 dream. I do hope G55 does the right thing and votes Zil. Then I can take the hit in the Night and Sally can live another day as a known innocent.
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Old 08-13-2012, 05:16 AM   #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna View Post
Sally was Night 1 dream. I do hope G55 does the right thing and votes Zil. Then I can take the hit in the Night and Sally can live another day as a known innocent.
If that's true, then I'm very pleased! I can stop suspecting her.
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Old 08-13-2012, 05:29 AM   #134
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Phew. I'm glad we voted for Inzil, then. (Unless Kitanna is a very mean wolf, there was no reason for her to come back at this point just to give us a name, when it looks nearly a sure thing that Inzil will be lynched. Unless G55 doesn't show or has changed her mind.) It's good to know that we can trust Sally. I wasn't sure what to think of her. Thanks for coming back to tell us that, Kitanna.
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Old 08-13-2012, 05:58 AM   #135
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Oh, my post above is wrong. I'm sure you all noticed, but anyway, since the count is Kitanna (3) and Inzil (4), if G55 doesn't turn up, Inzil will still be lynched. The only way he won't be is if G55 votes for Kitanna.
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Old 08-13-2012, 06:10 AM   #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna View Post
I went to bed angry and woke up feeling better.

Sally was Night 1 dream. I do hope G55 does the right thing and votes Zil. Then I can take the hit in the Night and Sally can live another day as a known innocent.

That....that actually may make sense. I found your interaction with my on Day 1 to be a it, as I said, creepy, but that....hmmmmm. I can go for that.

At work now. No more reveals while I'm gone, k?
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Old 08-13-2012, 06:45 AM   #137
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++Inzil
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Old 08-13-2012, 06:48 AM   #138
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Kit, if you're the Seer (which I believe you are and hope you are), I love you. If you're a wolf, kudos for messing with our heads.
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Old 08-13-2012, 07:00 AM   #139
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Huh, am I alone here? This is the first time participate in a Day when everyone votes early and there is no last-minute rush of analyses, suspicion, and votes.

To use sally's word, creepy. It seems unnatural, even though whenever there is a rush we complain about it all the time and urge people to vote early. *sigh*
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Old 08-13-2012, 07:01 AM   #140
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Huh, am I alone here? This is the first time participate in a Day when everyone votes early and there is no last-minute rush of analyses, suspicion, and votes.
I think everyone actually voted and voted early.

PS: Zil, you're a hateful, hateful wolf.
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Old 08-13-2012, 07:03 AM   #141
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I'm here too, waiting to see what the result is. I'm fairly confident it will be as expected.
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Old 08-13-2012, 07:04 AM   #142
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"I have a confession to make," said Kitanna after gathering the townsfolk together. "I am not the simple hermit you see before you. I am in fact Radagast the Brown, and have used my magic to reveal that Inziladun is a werewolf."

"I have had enough of your lies, hound of Saruman," replied Inzil. "I am the Brown Wizard, and this beast is trying to trick you."

"If you're a wizard, then I'm the King of Gondor," retorted Kit.

"Give it up, you animals!" shouted Sally. "I'm Radagast, and you're both wolves!"

"You can't all be Radagast," observed Coppermirror. "But which one's telling the truth?"

"I say we put them all to a test and let Eru sort them out," G55 suggested. "That way, it'll be fair."

"OK, pie eating contest in five minutes!" said Inzil, accpting the offer. "Let's get this over with."

The villagers agreed, and soon a large number of pies were brought out. After an hour or so, Inzil had won.

"Congratulations, Inzil," said G55. "You get to be lynched."

"What?"

"You picked a contest you were sure to win, baker, and that ravenous appetite doesn't help you any."

Inzil suddenly flew into a rage. "That's it! I don't care how secret we were supposed to be! I've had it with these people!"

With that, he transformed into a ferocious wolf and charged at the villagers. However, he hadn't noticed just how many pies were still left. A food fight started, and the villagers shoved pie after pie into the wolf's face until he suffocated.

---------------------------------------
The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Tavern lackey
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Kitanna: Cranky hermit
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Impaled by wolves on Night 2
Inziladun (Werewolf): Killed in pie fight with villagers on Day 2

It is now Night 3. Villagers, stop posting. I need names from Radagast and the remaining wolf.
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Old 08-14-2012, 08:01 AM   #143
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The rain was falling hard and fast that night, and Kitanna had retired to her small cabin on the outskirts of the village. Once inside, she dispelled the illusion that had been maintained during the day. Where the hermit had been now stood an old man dressed in a brown hood and robe, holding a gnarled oaken staff.

For the hermit Kitanna was merely a cover for Radagast the Brown, who had moved to Rohan upon learning of Saruman's treachery. The wizard lit a fire with his staff and pondered what to do about th last wolf.

Suddenly, there was a loud Bang and the door shuddered. Radagast raised his staff and peered cautiously at the door.

"Enter if you must, wolf, but be warned, for I came from the same stock as your master," he said.

The wolf accepted the challenge, knocking down the door and leaping upon the wizard with a savage growl. The old man was surprisingly strong when provoked, and threw the wolf back. The wolf momentarily paused, seeing Radagast somehow greater in stature and glowering menacingly.

"Begone and trouble this village no more!" shouted the wizard. The wolf was no fool, though, seeing the illusion for what it was. The beast leapt forward again, knocking the wizard back and shattering his staff into pieces. Shaken by this new twist of fate, Radagast offered little resistance as the wolf snapped his neck.

Before the wolf could devour the body, though, it dissolved into a grey mist. Rising upward, it hovered for a while until a wind mysteriously picked up and carried it west.

All the villagers found in the morning were a pile of tattered robes and a broken staff.

Saruman grinned upon seeing what had transpired. At last that meddlesome, bird-loving fool had gotten what he deserved.
--------------------------------------------------------
The Living
Coppermirror: Toymaker
Eomer of the Rohirrim: Tavern lackey
Galadriel55: Half-deaf tapestry weaver
Pitchwife: Grumpy old man
satansaloser2005: Wandering minstrel
Shastanis Althreduin: Wandering minstrel

The Dead
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Gutted by wolves on Night 1
Nessa Telrunya (Werewolf): Beaten and burned by villagers on Day 1
Nerwen (Ordinary Villager): Impaled by wolves on Night 2
Inziladun (Werewolf): Killed in pie fight with villagers on Day 2
Kitanna (Radagast): Neck snapped by wolf on Night 3

It is now Day 3. Villagers, post away.
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Old 08-14-2012, 08:49 AM   #144
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Oh. Right. There's no ranger in this game. Forget I said anything then. D'oh. I clearly need to pay more attention. Anyway, moving on.

So....lycanthropy....
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Old 08-14-2012, 09:13 AM   #145
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Shield

The only thing that looks certain, from Inzil's posts, is that Sally is innocent. That's... helpful.

I would also propose that Inzil was trying to buddy up with Pitch, early in Day Two. I get the feeling from this interaction that Pitch is innocent. Add to that list Coppermirror and G55, due to their votes for Nessa, and my guess for third wolf is the one left over:

Shasta.
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Old 08-14-2012, 09:52 AM   #146
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Kitannagast, your sacrifice was noble! But now we need to get a new cranky hermit for Isenbridge.

Come to think of it, we need a new baker, midwife, fisherman...And we need to advertise for a new horse trader, too. Nerwen, maysherestinpeace, was...perhaps not the most honest of them all. The horses are in such bad condition that I bet that's why the werewolves haven't tried to eat them.

Let's just not tell potential new bakers what happened to the last one.

We're doing extremely well. I honestly never expected us to get past Day 2.

Anyway...

Wolves: Nessa, Inziladun.

Potential wolves: Eomer, Shasta, Pitchwife.

Probably innocent: Galadriel55

Known innocents: Sally, Coppermirror (known to me, anyway)

Deceased known innocents: Nerwen, Kitanna

So naturally I'll be looking at the three I consider most suspicious. Day 1 and Day 2 before Kitanna's revelation should be the most useful, because after that point, Inzil and the other wolf knew Inzil was done for. That said, Inzil was already under suspicion at the start of Day 2, so they should have been very cautious then...Anyway, for Pitchwife, there's no choice but to look at Day 2. At present I don't have any particular idea of who is the most suspicious of those three. I'm not totally ruling out Galadriel55, but I think it's very unlikely that she's a wolf.

I have to sleep now, so I'll be back later.
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Old 08-14-2012, 10:20 AM   #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
The only thing that looks certain, from Inzil's posts, is that Sally is innocent. That's... helpful.
Or, you know, from Kit's post.

Can it be true though? Could my psychic flaming wolf boy be....well, a psychic flaming wolf boy? My partner in song, tell me it's not true!

Actually, toDay is going to be rather horrid for me; I'll have but a couple of hours this evening to really read through things, and I doubt I'll be able to be on my laptop at all. I'll make a list this afternoon and try to post it before I head off to my evening plans. Let us get the last wolf toDay so that I may be alive to claim the victory with you. For Kit!
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Old 08-14-2012, 11:05 AM   #148
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O the horror of it all! Kitannadagast, I shall weave the tragic tale of your end into my tapestries, so that your heroic deeds will be remembered forever!



My suspicion list at the moment is a copy of mirror's, except that just switch my name around with hers. I shall take a look at Shasta, Pitch, and Eomer.
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Old 08-14-2012, 12:27 PM   #149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
I would also propose that Inzil was trying to buddy up with Pitch, early in Day Two.
He didn't have to. In case it isn't clear, I finished reading Day One's proceedings thinking that he was probably the Seer who had dreamed a Kitwolf (as may have been intented by his "ill-defined feeling of unease" and voting her on such vague grounds); only if that was true, the wolves would have spotted him and killed him instead of Nerwen (Shasta, I hope this answers your question in #112). When Kit revealed and he counter-revealed, I thought this could be an alternative wolf plan to get rid of him. Obviously not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
I get the feeling from this interaction that Pitch is innocent.
That is of course nice to hear, but are you sure you aren't trying the same tactic you just ascribed to Zil?
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Old 08-14-2012, 01:26 PM   #150
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OK, so the unknowns from my perspective are (in alphabetical order) Cop, Eomer, Gal and Shasta. The last wolf has to be one of these four.

For the record, I don't like all the hullabaloo Cop made about herself and Gal being innocent based on their roles in slaying Nessa, never failing to associate the two of them, which has a whiff of wolf buddying up to innocent. Also, her explanation of how she came to vote Nessa in #67 would sound wolvish like hell if Nessa hadn't been a wolf herself (more or less "Hm, I need someone to suspect, I think I'll pick Nessa. O look, she's done something suspicious! Great, I can vote her now!")
On the other hand, her D1 vote tied Nessa with Kit, and her D2 vote was the second for Zil after three for Kit. I have a hard time imagining a newbie wolf cub making two such brazen wolf-on-wolf votes in a row, and am therefore inclined to believe her innocent and chalk the passage in #67 up to noobishly awkward wording.

(to be continued)
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Old 08-14-2012, 02:28 PM   #151
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Eomer
His dislike of both the Nessa votes and Nessa'sown vote, maintaining a conveniently neutral position, as well as his throwaway vote for sally on D1 could fit the third wolf. His first reaction to the two seer-reveals was pretty non-committal (#100), but later he argued in Kit's favour (#127) and ended up voting Zil, tying him with Kit at three votes each.

Now I know (unlike the rest of you) that Zil's and Nessa's packmate did the sensible thing yesterDay and voted the dreamed wolf, leaving it to two innocents to try to lynch the revealed Seer; so the only thing about the D2 votes we can draw conclusions from is the time they were made and how they changed the tally. That said, I highly doubt a wolf would tie their packmate with the seer -

- although, like Eomer said himself in #127, it didn't matter because they'd both be dead anyway (even if Kit had been lynched, Zil would be lynched toDay), and the wolf would of course want to make xemself look good, so it would actually be a sensible thing to do from both perspectives. Garrrh.

It's difficult to reach a conclusion about him, but if I limit the amount of overthinking I'm willing to engage in, he does look better toDay than he did early yesterDay. As to his suspecting Shasta over me, I can only say it seems a very Eomerish thing.

(to be continued)

* * *

PS. Where is everybody else, by the way? Looks like I may end up quadruple-posting...
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Old 08-14-2012, 03:23 PM   #152
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Galadriel, the 55th of her name
On D1 she first suspected Nerwen for some vibe feeling (in a post that x-ed with Nessa's vote for me and Cop's vote for Nessa), but then scolded Nessa rather harshly and drove the final nail into her coffin. Could be a wolf deciding to push what's falling and make herself look good in the process, but on D1 and with two votes for an innocent to piggyback on? I doubt it. Her explanation for her vote in #63 does sound a little self-conscious though.

YesterDay she turned up rather late, seemed to trust Kit from the get-go and suspected me for pushing the Kitwagon together with Zil.

(Which reminds me, I owe her an answer to this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gal55 #123
And this makes the lights flash red a lot. Kit could, eventually, name the innocent or not name him based on how she feels at the moment. But the more she prolongs the moment of revelation the more interaction and reaction we have to glean information of. On the other hand, a wolf can potentially save their hides by erasing this interaction before it has begun. When I think back to previous instances of such a situation happening it was a wolf who would ask this prompting question.
In theory, you're totally right. In praxi, I had to vote by the time I did, and had to make up my mind which seer to trust, so I pressed Kit for her dream because if she was fake, she might somehow contradict herself, and took her refusal as indication that she had no dream to tell and was reluctant to invent one. If I could have waited, I would have.)

She later relativized her suspicion of me, keeping me in the orange category however, and later gave the last vote to Zil after stating her intention to do so earlier.

Oh well. A wolf would of course have known that Kit was genuine, which could explain her lack of doubt, and she only voted Zil when the only other thing she could have done would have been to create a tie, which would have been frowned on once their roles were known. But her stated intention to vote Zil was apparently one cause for Shasta to vote him, and I don't know that a Galwolf would have gone to such lengths to lynch her packmates. If she's lupine and wins this way, I'd say she deserves it.

(to be continued)

* * *

Really, where are you all? I'm getting tired of talking to myself. Maybe I shouldn't sign up for games where the only time I have to play is when nobody else is online.
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Old 08-14-2012, 03:25 PM   #153
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Silmaril The Three Musketeers

I only quoted the posts I think important. And I only read the thread up to my last post; I refreshed the thread and saw that Pitch (and perhaps others) posted after it, but I want to post this first and then read new posts.


Shasta

DAY1:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
Funnily enough, I was going to say relatively the same thing... only replacing your name with Eomer's. Hmm. I do need to vote (I'm about to hit the hay), so I think I'm going to go ahead and vote for -

++Nessa
There were only two votes at that point, both for Kit. This vote for Nessa looks more like a psychic at work than a wolf bussing a mate.

DAY2:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
Right, I'm here, and reading. Bit of luck on the Nessa vote - I noted someone else had seen what I'd seen about her, and something was telling me "bad!" and I had to vote, so. I apologize for my relative lack of being here. I'll do better.
Sounds realistic enough.

#112 is long and my comments short. Just a few remarks, replying to the other's comments. Asks for a few clarifications. Doesn't like sally's post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
Right, so, we've got Kitanna versus Inzil for today. I'm going to go back and look at Day 1 - although, interestingly, a Kitwolf would know all the innocents in the village, plus, this is a prime opportunity to mess with the village's mind should she be lynched (she tells us Person A is a dreamt innocent, dies a wolf. Was she trying to protect Person A (her packmate)? Was she trying to get them lynched via WIFOM? etc.)

It's weird to me that a Kitwolf wouldn't just go ahead and say someone was innocent. Whereas a frustrated innocent Kit might just be contrary because she's not being believed.
I entirely agree with this post, and this was part of my reasining for voting Zil yesterDay. Aside from that, I think that if Shasta is the last wolf he was rather mean to Zil. Had he not so obviously chose Kit as Seer here and continued with this attitude, he could have likely saved his mate. I know Shasta isn't the kind to feel bad about bussing mates, especially those that will be dead anyway the next Day at the latest, but the Kitwagon was going well and he could have bought Zil another Day with little risk to himself. This post basically changed the vote pattern around. (There was one vote for Zil and 3 for Kit at that point). This makes me think of Shasta as more innocent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
#15 - Inzil says Kit strikes him as "a bit off, but it's really a thin thing."

#22 - Inzil on Kit again - "some ill-defined feeling of unease"

#23 - Kit wants a reason for Inzil's suspicion.

#24 - Inzil mentions "the feel of the first couple posts."

#48 - Inzil - "It is a bit suspicious the way Sally latched onto what I said about Kit. Funny thing is, I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit."

#49 - Inzil votes Kit.

#52 - Kit - "I'll probably vote for Zil at this point. Because I don't like his "Kit strikes me as a bit off, but it's really a thin thing." and "I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit.""

#62 - Kit votes Inzil.

Conclusion - Well, it does look like a standard Seer lead-up on Inzil's part, and Kit does look a bit retaliatory, as though she's realized she's in trouble. But if that's so, and Kitwolf did realize Inzilgast had dreamt her, why not kill Inzil last night?
No comment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
Which means I'll be casting a deciding(ish) vote.

However, it's an easy one at this stage of the game.

++Inzil

Besides everything that's left me in favor of Kit as the real Seer, G55 (should she return) was already planning a vote for Inzil. Tying it up would be silly.
It was 3-3 when Shasta voted.




Eomer

DAY1:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
I do agree with Nerwen's last post. Problem is that it's a smart post for a wolf to make. Given Inzil's suspicion of Kitanna, especially the nature of that suspicion (based on 'feel') any subsequent vote for Kitanna is going to be scrutinised.

Would a wolf-Sally walk into that, though? Probably not, though maybe.

It's a really small village and the wolves could win quickly. They could be trying a bold manoeuvre. Say, wolf-Inzil spies their first victim (Kitanna made early posts) and sets it up for Sally to make the vote. Nerwen then jumps in to criticise that vote.

We could be looking at a move here. Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates.
So two of these are proven ordos and one is a proven wolf. I can see an Ordomer guess one out of three, and I can also see a Wolfomer throw a packmate into a list of suspects.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
At the risk of defending her and creating a sort of 'faction', there's something weird about Inzil's insistence on Kitanna. Trying to bait Coppermirror but ending up with Kit? I've just re-read the thread and I don't really see it.

Also, not at all clear how he feels he can judge Nerwen or Nessa's role by discovery of Kitanna's.
Eomer insists on questioning Inzil. I haven't played with him as a wolf yet, but I imagine he would have no trouble dumping a mate into deep water. This would make Wolfomer look good later if Inzilafolf is lynched: Eomer casts some doubt on him ("see, I suspected him too!") but at such a time when it was safe to do so.

Yet the above scenario is also a bit of a stretch. It could just be Ordomer suspecting a wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
If he had picked on innocent Kitanna, though, Inzil has vowed to go after Sally. So it seems unlikely that, if he's wolvish, that Sally is too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
I don't like either of the two votes for Nessa NOR do I like Nessa's vote for Pitch.
Votes Sally. This vote would fit in nicely with the scenario of a Wolfomer casting just enough suspicion on Zil to make the survivor look innocent should one of them be lynched. First he makes a combination of Zil-sally-Nerwen. Goes after Zil. Decides Zil and sally can't be wolves together. Votes Sally. Very cleanly done, if he's a wolf. And if he's not, that's also possible.

What picks me is that the two players with the most votes (Kit and Nessa) barely got a mention from him. All Day. Even at the end of the Day when all the talk was about them. I don't love the fixation on Inzil and sally.

DAY2:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
As I was asked about it, I will explain why I didn't like the first two votes for Nessa.

Nessa's post #42 is where it all fell apart for her, which I find.... rather fortuitous. She comments that she suspected Sally's actions in jumping onto Inziladun's train of thought, and voting for Kitanna.

To my mind, there is nothing suspicious here. Wasn't everyone a bit suspicious of what Sally did? But then Nerwen (proven innocent now) suspects Nessa from this, and Shasta jumps in with a vote. Coppermirror then votes for Nessa too, albeit with a better reason (Nessa's vote for Pitch). Coppermirror then clarified that the earlier 'suspicion' of Nessa was not a deciding factor, and so I look more favourably on her now.

G55's vote makes her look very innocent, that's true. I am less inclined to drop my guard around Shasta, however.
Ok.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
Inziladun,

Looking back.... I'm not really sure how I got confused!

So, to clarify: you did not really suspect Coppermirror, but were trying to hook a wolf into that particular net. Nothing came of it.

Your suspicion of Kitanna was genuine, and it inadvertently snared someone (Sally: whether good or evil we don't know, of course).

Apologies for being slow!

However, this does nothing to stop me from thinking your suspicion of Kitanna is weird.
So keeps Zil hanging out there in the middle. Neither here nor there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
Whichever one it is, there will be connexions to analyse from Day One: both Kitanna and Inzil were in the thick of things. And considering that first days are often uneventful and lacking in content, I'm glad our Seer battle is between these two!
Hmm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
Would it not be likely that, were Kitanna a wolf, they would have killed obvious-Seer Inzil last night? I'm inclined to believe Kitanna at this stage. But it doesn't really matter because they'll both be dead by tomorrow. We need to find the third wolf.

For my money, Coppermirror and G55 are probably innocent. Their votes for Nessa were crucial.
Just like Shasta, Eomer takes Kit's side when there's still a chance to save Zil. But now less of a chance; Shasta and I all but voted already. So this post does not necessarily speak in favour of Eomer innocence.

Also, I don't like the "it doesn't matter" attitude. I think it matters very much if we get a wolf earlier rather than later.

#129 - Votes Zil.

DAY3:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim View Post
The only thing that looks certain, from Inzil's posts, is that Sally is innocent. That's... helpful.

I would also propose that Inzil was trying to buddy up with Pitch, early in Day Two. I get the feeling from this interaction that Pitch is innocent. Add to that list Coppermirror and G55, due to their votes for Nessa, and my guess for third wolf is the one left over:

Shasta.
Ok.





Pitchie

DAY2:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Seriously, sorry for doing a Kath yesterDay and thanks to Shasta, Cop and Gal for foiling Nessa Fenrinya's attempt on my unprotected life. Speaking of which, I wonder how much hope she had it would succeed - I mean, there had been some talk of submarine-hunting earlier, but lynching somebody who's in danger of modfire anyway would be considered a wasted lynch in most villages, especially one so small.

If, however, she felt she could afford to make a throwaway vote, there must either have been some chance of lynching an innocent at the time she voted - which would speak for Kit and against sally and/or Zil - , or her packmates hadn't voted yet and she was leaving things in their hands - which would point to those who voted after but not for her, i.e. Kit and Eomer (disregarding for now the possibility of wolf-on-wolf votes).

Now if the latter is true and Kit is one of the wolves, that would mean there were two wolves in danger of being lynched yesterDay and no innocent bandwagon to fall back on; which would explain the lack of any concerted attempt to save Nessa. But in this case I'd have expected to find Zil dead toDay instead of Nerwen.

* * *

Good questions both, I'd like to hear that too. But Cop, why did you think Nerwen a possible seer?
Neutral observations, imo. Doesn't say anything particular about role.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.
Objective observation or a self-deprecating wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Um, why would she want to distance herself from the lynching of a wolf? Doesn't make sense to me (unlike the rest of your reasoning here).


The thing is, everything she said against Nessa or other people was based on sound reasoning, and nothing looks to me like it was arrived at by Nightly inspiration. Trailless kill seems much more likely to me.

(x-ed with Kit and Cop. )
True.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
She's not saying she thinks, she says she knows.

Kit, when did you gain this knowledge?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Also, since you'll be dead toMorrow, I think it would be a good idea to tell us your other dream and give us a known innocent (assuming you didn't dream another wolf, in which case I'd think you'd have said so).
So far so good again. Nothing role-revealing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.
All right, so yesterDay that post got me into a mood that really went not in Pitchie's favour. The reason for that is that I've seen almost exact copies of that post said by wolves who want to avoid any extra interaction that may get them under suspicion, or to hide the fact that they have extra knowledge behind the convenient situation that now everyone knows it.

Now, though, as I reread the thread I can see a reason for an innocent Pitch to be so passionate about it. Kit didn't say she'll wait a bit before giving the name. She said she won't give it to a village that doesn't trust her, which, from a certain point of view, could sound ridiculous.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Hm, I must say you did strike me as the most seerish-looking person in this village exactly because of the vagueness of your suspicion.

Let's not be hasty though. I seem to remember I helped to lynch a seer Kit once, I'd be loath to repeat that mistake. But I must say her "I know a living innocent but I'm not going to tell you" attitude isn't exactly trust-inspiring.
Would that not be a convenient post for a wolf to make? "I don't like it, so that's my excuse for when she turns out innocent, but I'll vote her anyway since she, after all, is more suspicious and less believable and etc [insert "reasons"]".

But on the other hand, again, Pitch could just be an innocent who believed Zil but had a genuine bad feeling about lynching Kit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
And if we lynch Zil and find him genuine, the point will be moot anyway, is that it?
That's said about Kit's refusal to name the dreamed innocent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
I have to vote now, as it's bedtime for me and I most likely won't be able to come online again before DL (which is near the end of my workday).

I hate this whole situation, and if Kit's a wolf, she does the angry frustrated innocent part really well. Also I concur with some of her analyses, most notably those of Cop (whom I think more probably innocent, however) and Eomer (funny, since I considered him a likely packmate for a Kitwolf earlier).

How likely is it, though, that a Zilwolf just happened to random-suspect our seer, of all people, in a seerish-looking way? Also, how much danger of getting lynched toDay was Kit really in prior to her reveal? (Yes, I mentioned her as a possible packmate of Nessa's in my first post, and the thought that Zil was the seer and had dreamed her had crossed my mind, but his continuing existence among the living cast a lot of doubt on that.) What I'm saying is wolvish guilt may have led her to underestimate her chances.

I really think it makes more sense the other way 'round, and Kitwolf is sacrificing herself in order to take down the seer before he can dream her last packmate.

Therefore
++Kitanna

Zil, if you're a wolf, well done. Kit, if you're a wolf, that was a brave attempt; if you're the real seer, may we meet in the flesh some day so you can slap me to your heart's content.
Can't tell much about the intentions behind the words from the arguments; they are true and most things are taken in consideration. The vote for Kit could be cast by a confused ordo (sally's there too) or a knowing wolf. But it works just a bit too well if Pitch is the last wolf who was trying to save his mate, and since he voted early it explains why no one gave the final push to the Kitwagon. Unless the remaining wolf is bold and confident enough to sacrifice Zil just in case, even when there was a good chance of saving him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Just a note before I leave:

Shasta voted Nessa before she voted me. He was laconic enough about his reasons, but if I understand him right, he was going exclusively on the latching-on point mentioned by Nerwen.
A correction. Quite true.




Anyways, I still don't have a clear picture of who might be the last wolf, but Pitch and Eomer seem to me more likely choices than Shasta.
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Old 08-14-2012, 03:42 PM   #154
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
- although, like Eomer said himself in #127, it didn't matter because they'd both be dead anyway (even if Kit had been lynched, Zil would be lynched toDay), and the wolf would of course want to make xemself look good, so it would actually be a sensible thing to do from both perspectives. Garrrh.
Good point, actually. I have looked over that in my analysis/summary. This kinda makes a number of points I made moot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
A wolf would of course have known that Kit was genuine, which could explain her lack of doubt, and she only voted Zil when the only other thing she could have done would have been to create a tie, which would have been frowned on once their roles were known.
Oh, I was torn alright. It was all because of Zil's D1 "I don't like Kit but it's really thin" talk that made me confused at first (since how likely is that?). But then there was the time when Seeromer dreamed Nerwen and Shasta the first 2 Nights, who he said were wolves, but they claimed to be both gifted. So coincidences happen. And other than that Zi's pick of Kit and Nerwen (the other Seer and a dead person) as dreams sounded just too much like a typical self-defensive fake reveal. Now if he said he's just an ordo, or said he dreamt someone else...

But anyways, I did debate quite a lot in my head. The reason you don't know about it is because I barely had time to write my final decision, forget about the process by which I arrived to it. I post only 2 or 3 times a Day, which is abnormally quiet for me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
But her stated intention to vote Zil was apparently one cause for Shasta to vote him, and I don't know that a Galwolf would have gone to such lengths to lynch her packmates. If she's lupine and wins this way, I'd say she deserves it.
Huh, I wish I would play like you describe as a wolf!

[/self-opinion]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitch
Really, where are you all? I'm getting tired of talking to myself. Maybe I shouldn't sign up for games where the only time I have to play is when nobody else is online.
I was there, but I was writing the analyses for 3 or 4 hours. It doesn't actually take that long, but it does when 5 different people call you to do all kids of stuff when you're in the middle of a thought process.
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Old 08-14-2012, 03:47 PM   #155
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Also, I don't know why exactly, but the last few posts by Pitchie make me drop my suspicions on him a bit again. Head tells me "danger" and vibes tell me "safe". Ddd Urgh! Why am I so conflicted about Pitch?


...I know why. Because Lommy isn't playing. Someone has to do her job for her.


(mirror, to explain this to you since I'm not sure you know how Lommy - aka Thinlomien - plays, she's famous for flip-flopping)
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Old 08-14-2012, 03:48 PM   #156
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Ah, it feels good to quadruple-post! Finally I feel like I'm playing properly!
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Old 08-14-2012, 03:58 PM   #157
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Shield

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Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Or, you know, from Kit's post.
That's the joke.
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Old 08-14-2012, 04:25 PM   #158
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Meh, no quintuple-posting :(

Shasta
Was the first to vote Nessa on D1, and one of the starters of suspicion against her together with Nerwen (accepting that he'd had the thought independent of her, as he claimed). At the time the only reason to suspect Nessa was her famous latching on to Nerwen's/Eomer's suspicion of sally for latching on... (you all know the story), so he couldn't foresee she would earn more votes for her throwaway vote for me; meaning if this was a wolf-on-wolf vote, he could not know Nessa would end up dead - although he had reason to expect Nerwen might vote her too (on the off chance of a Nerwen vote on D1), so it was risky as well as unnecessary, if not as risky as if he'd made the vote later.

(To be clear, I'm talking about the guy who won his last wolf game triumphantly over the corpses of his ruthlessly bussed packmates, so there's little in wolf-on-wolfing that I'd put beyond him.)

Turned up late on D2, long post in which he questions me, sally and Cop, explains himself to Kit and banters with Zil; nothing eyebrow-raising in there. Argued for Kit being legit; summary of Zil, concluding that
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta #115
it does look like a standard Seer lead-up on Inzil's part, and Kit does look a bit retaliatory, as though she's realized she's in trouble. But if that's so, and Kitwolf did realize Inzilgast had dreamt her, why not kill Inzil last night?
Weighing the arguments, nothing wrong with that.
Then votes Zil, putting him in the lead, because:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
Besides everything that's left me in favor of Kit as the real Seer, G55 (should she return) was already planning a vote for Inzil. Tying it up would be silly.
Now this last reason sounds weird to me. Shasta, if you believed Kit to be the real Seer (as your previous posts indicate), why even consider tying it up? Why even mention that it played a role in your decision, when "I believe Kit, see above" would have been perfectly sufficient? Or did you secretly wish you could have voted differently and gave yourself away here?
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Old 08-14-2012, 04:42 PM   #159
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Gal, just so you know where I was coming from yesterDay: a long time ago I was once a seer and had revealed when a wolf counter-revealed; my dream had been killed the Night before, while he claimed to have dreamt a living innocent. He was caught when he started suspecting the very person he claimed to have dreamt as innocent. (OK, that was Morsul, and Kit, even if a wolf, would never have been so clumsy, but it was worth a try.)
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Old 08-14-2012, 05:16 PM   #160
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Voting time again

So it's Eomer or Shasta.

Gal has two very good points here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gal's monster post #153
Votes Sally. This vote would fit in nicely with the scenario of a Wolfomer casting just enough suspicion on Zil to make the survivor look innocent should one of them be lynched. First he makes a combination of Zil-sally-Nerwen. Goes after Zil. Decides Zil and sally can't be wolves together. Votes Sally. Very cleanly done, if he's a wolf. And if he's not, that's also possible.

What picks me is that the two players with the most votes (Kit and Nessa) barely got a mention from him. All Day. Even at the end of the Day when all the talk was about them. I don't love the fixation on Inzil and sally.
and
Quote:
Originally Posted by the same
Just like Shasta, Eomer takes Kit's side when there's still a chance to save Zil. But now less of a chance; Shasta and I all but voted already. So this post does not necessarily speak in favour of Eomer innocence.
In my post on Eomer above I only looked at the tally, not the posts that were made between votes and stated opinions. This does change the picture.

Also, saying if that sally's not a wolf if Zil is and declaring me innocent and misled by Zil "buddying up to me" (which I must say I didn't notice if he did it) look like fishing for innocent allies.

Finally, Shasta isn't here to defend himself against my Freudian interpretation of his vote post, and I like to be sporting toDay.

++Eomer

Á vala Manwë, and good night.
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