Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[Volo]

Lommy looks Innocent to me. Well, all the Lommys I've seen have so far been Innocent... But still...

Shasta doesn't look Innocent.

[The Saucepan Man]

Time's up. Voting closed. No more discussion.

Result to follow in due course ...

[The Saucepan Man]

The sun had almost set and Isabellkya had been chosen to die. The remaining delegates turned to her brandishing torches and whatever weapons came to hand. Terror was in the eyes of the delegate from the remote village of Kyaq as they approached her and, spinning on her heels, she ran. The crowd immediately set off after her but, gaining some ground, she darted in between two huts. In desperation, she hurriedly scanned her surroundings in the hope that there might be some place to conceal herself. Alas, there was nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. The small passageway ended in a wall. Cornered, she turned, petrified, to face the savage mob.

But as the delegates neared Isabellkya, her frightened features gave way to a sneer, which politely moved over in deference to a snarl, which in turn was chased away by a growl. Falling on to all fours, she began to grow in size as hair sprouted on her arms and legs and began to spread over her entire, rapidly morphing body. Her fingers split, making way for cruel blood-red claws as her mouth stretched to form a beastly snout arrayed with a fearsome set of razor-sharp teeth. Twice the size of a man now, she glowered at the delegates, who had been halted in their tracks by the sudden and alarming transformation. It did not take long for them to reappraise the situation.

“Run away!” cried one.

“Run away! Run away!” agreed the others.

Turning as one, the mob careered back down the alley, jostling and scrabbling at one another in their terror. With a howl, the great She-Wolf leaped forward and bounded after them. But, just as she began to draw level with the stragglers, a small fox sprang out from a small cluster of bushes and darted between her legs. Startled, Isabellkya was momentarily caught off balance and, fell crashing snout over tail to the ground. The villagers needed no second chance and were immediately upon her, axes, pitchforks and blades hacking, slashing and thrusting in a wild frenzy of blood-letting.

When at last they stepped back, all that remained was the bloody, battered and decidedly dead body of Isabellkya.

The dead:

The Saucepan Man - Slaughtered and boiled up in a spicy ghoulash on Night zero.
xyzzy - Got bored of the role-based banter and hung himself quietly on Day 1 (Ordinary Innocent)
Meneltarmacil - Fatally wounded in sooth he was and crawled awaye to find ye deathe in ye woodes on Nighte 1 (Werewolfe)
Rune Son of Bjarne - Hunted and added to his own trophy collection on Night 1 (Ordinary Innocent)
Durelin - Spied on things which should not be seen and got hung for it on Night 1 (Thief)
Kath - Burned at the stake and spurned by her Lord on Day 2 (Priestess of Sauron)
Rikae - Tickled mercilessly and died with a smile on her face on Night 2 (Oridnary Innocent)
Legate of Amon Lanc - Underwent radical optical surgery and lost his life and his foresight on Night 2 (Druid)
Isabellkya - Mometarily caught off guard by a darting fox and set upon by the frenzied mob on Day 3 (Werewolf)

The living:

Mormegil
Aganzir - the Dwarf delegate of a Woodsmen village
Gil-Galad
Shastanis Althreduin - the extremely detail-oriented centaur delegate from the Plains
Volo - the very hairy delegate from as far as it gets
Nogrod - the moody delegate from the Witch-burners' village who is ready and willing to form a theory to suit his feelings whatever the facts ...
Boromir88 - the filibuster delegate from Laketown, whose geography is not that good
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien - the Delegate of INSTRAW
the guy who be short - the delegate from nearby Necropolis
Mithalwen - the delegate of an anarco-sydicalist commune, taking her turn as a sort of executive officer for the week
Feanor of the Peredhil - the slightly offbeat delegate who offers controversial suggestions to the moot regardless of lycanthropic tendencies

Night 3 has fallen. Things that go bump in the Night may start bumping.

[The Saucepan Man]

As the delegates rose from their troubled slumbers on Day 4 and emerged from their huts, they were startled to find a headless horse sprawled in the village square. It lay oddly, as if its back had been broken and its legs protruded at unlikely angles. Closer inspection, however, revealed the human torso trapped beneath the equine hulk and they immediately recognised the extremely detail orientated centaur delegate from the Plains. As the delegates straightened his broken body, they saw that his skin, once a burnished bronze, was now blue and pale as if the very life had been squeezed from him. Suddenly, his eyes snapped open and he stared up at them, whinnying in pain.

“Who did this to you?”

“Was it the Wolves?”

But the only reply they received was a gurgled “neigh”. Uncharacteristically, but perhaps understandably, Shastanis Althreduin was rather short on the detail as the life drained finally from him.

But their troubles did not end there. As on the morning of the second Day, a further two of their number were missing and, once more, they made the dreadful pilgrimage to the absent delegates’ huts.

The first was a creepy, fearsome place, decked out with skulls and bones. At first, they thought that they had discovered a Wolfish lair. But then it dawned on them that this delegate had merely decorated his hut according to the customs of his village, so as to make himself feel at home. Of his body they could find no sign, until they caught sight of a skeleton of noticeably short stature lying in the corner in a pool of blood, and saw that its component bones were less yellowed by the years than the remainder of the gruesome décor. In places, flesh and sinews still hung from them, but they had largely been picked clean by lupine fangs. The bones of the delegate from nearby Necropolis had joined those of his ancestors.

The interior of the second hut was equally grim. It’s occupant lay there, her body slashed and torn, riddled with gaping wounds. Yet it seemed that she had not died straight away. Her arm was outstretched and a bloodstained finger pointed to a message that she had scrawled in her own blood on the floor.

“You realise that this doesn’t mean I’m not a Werewolf …” it read.

Feanor of the Peredhil had remained offbeat and controversial to the end, regardless of lupine tendencies. Which, incidentally, she did not, and never had, exhibited.

Yup, it sure was the slaughter of the innocents.

The dead:

The Saucepan Man - Slaughtered and boiled up in a spicy ghoulash on Night zero.
xyzzy - Got bored of the role-based banter and hung himself quietly on Day 1 (Ordinary Innocent)
Meneltarmacil - Fatally wounded in sooth he was and crawled awaye to find ye deathe in ye woodes on Nighte 1 (Werewolfe)
Rune Son of Bjarne - Hunted and added to his own trophy collection on Night 1 (Ordinary Innocent)
Durelin - Spied on things which should not be seen and got hung for it on Night 1 (Thief)
Kath - Burned at the stake and spurned by her Lord on Day 2 (Priestess of Sauron)
Rikae - Tickled mercilessly and died with a smile on her face on Night 2 (Ordinary Innocent)
Legate of Amon Lanc - Underwent radical optical surgery and lost his life and his foresight on Night 2 (Druid)
Isabellkya - Mometarily caught off guard by a darting fox and set upon by the angry mob on Day 3 (Werewolf)
Shastanis Althreduin - Had the life squeezed from his half human, half equine form on Night 3 (Ordinary Innocent)
the guy who be short - Consumed and reduced to nothing but bare bones on Night 3 (Ordinary Innocent)
Feanor of the Peredhil - Brutally attacked yet lived long enough to write her bloody epitaph on Night 3 (Ordinary Innocent).

The living:

Mormegil
Aganzir - the Dwarf delegate of a Woodsmen village
Gil-Galad
Volo - the very hairy delegate from as far as it gets
Nogrod - the moody delegate from the Witch-burners' village who is ready and willing to form a theory to suit his feelings whatever the facts ...
Boromir88 - the filibuster delegate from Laketown, whose geography is not that good
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien - the Delegate of INSTRAW
Mithalwen - the delegate of an anarco-sydicalist commune, taking her turn as a sort of executive officer for the week

Day 4 has begun. Stop doing any Night things you may have been doing and start doing your Day things.

[Volo]

Now this looks sad.

But at least I don't have to wonder what Fea is anymore...

Could it be that we do have a Gifted of some sort. Maybe an Eagle witch the mechanics of the Assassin. Could go to every death I guess.

What I do think is that Nogrod is Innocent.
At least if the Wolves are in one pack. I don't think he'd give Izzie advice to be louder and then kill her for listening to the advice. Anyway, way too brave even for him to do as it would have been were he Wolf.

[Thinlómien]

To be honest, I feel like throwing an onion at someone. Three kills during one Night! That's just outrageous. (I admit having the foolish hope that maybe with two wolves dead, there would be just one kill per Night. It sems I couldn't have been more wrong. ) Anyway, this is quite downright ridiculous. I mean, even if we keep having a baddie-lynch rate like this, we're going to lose, and soon. Not something to cheer you up. Soon I'm beginning to wonder if we have just have one ordinary wolf team and The Evil God Saucepan just rolls a dice every Night to decide how many kills they get...

More seriously, I think one of last Night's kills must have been done by an innocent gifted (some sort of assasin) who just misjudged things. Because it would be more than downright ridiculous if baddies (of various sorts) would get three kills one Night. (Except, of course, if Sauce is rolling those dice, being an ex-D&D player and all... )

edit: xed with Volo

[Volo]

Yeah. It must have been a Goodie Gifted. Because there were two kills the preveous Night and now three, it can't really be Wolf or Bear as they have kills every Night.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

(Except, of course, if Sauce is rolling those dice, being an ex-D&D player and all... )

Haha! And that was probably a "special die" to have Fea taste her own medicine.

[Volo]

Wait a minute! A Cursed Villager! The preveous Night would be explained by that, or just a simple Ranger...

*sigh*

[Aganzir]

While I agree that three kills for baddies would be too much, I have to ask which one of those kills could have been done by someone who is on our side? They're all quite brutal. Or then Spm is just having fun?

Tgwbs was killed by a wolf / wolves. That leaves Shasta and Fea. I guess one was killed by a bear / wolves / something, the other by an assassin or something that is on our side.

One thing maybe worth mentioning. Gil is apparently not playing. Assuming that he's no wolf and thus excluding him there are 8 of us left, and at least two of them should be baddies. Now if we had two wolf teams as I believe, there would be 2-4 wolves left. At worst it might be four wolves against four innocents. So everybody had better think even more carefully than usually who to vote, and when.
However improbable it might be that there are that many wolves, it is possible. And if there are, and they have realised this, I think it's better that we realise it too before it's too late.

Lommy, you said yesterDay you were slightly surprised by the kill choices (Legate and Rikae). May I ask who you would have expected to die, then?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Volo

I don't think he'd give Izzie advice to be louder and then kill her for listening to the advice. Anyway, way too brave even for him to do as it would have been were he Wolf.

I wouldn't ceratinly put that past him.

As to my current feelings about our diminishing village.

Mormegil - Seems slightly more innocent than guilty, although suspecting those he always suspects would be a very good cover for a wolf.

Aganzir - I think she's very difficult to get a grasp on. She has done nothing to make me particularly suspicious. As a side note, she seems to be slipping under everybody's (including mine) radar...

Gil-Galad - Is not here and is hopefully innocent.

Volo - I think he feels innocent. (Although, at times he sems so confused that it looks like faking...)

Nogrod - He seems his normal self - helpful, contributing and smart. Yet, the problem is he is the same as a wolf. I have the feel I should start concentarting on him, as I've let him slip under my radar, or so it seems. If I had to bet for his intentions, I'd put my money for he being innocent, but I wouldn't be happy to do it.

Boromir88 - I don't know. He feels quite genuine, but something tells me that I shouldn't trust him too much. (Maybe common sense. ) I'm not particularly worried about him right now.

The Sixth Wizard - Could be guilty, could be innocent. I think he always acts somewhat suspiciously, whatever his role. Yet, TGWBS took up good points against him. I'm wary of him.

Thinlómien - Innocent.

Mithalwen - She's my top suspect right now. Her sort of non-committality (is that a word?), placement in the Gil-discussion and my bad gut-feeling about her could point to her guilt. Also, I find her way of throwing suspiion and/or placing people into spotlight quite wolvish. For example, yesterDay she said I was slipping under everybody's radar, although morm had quite vocally suspected me and Sixth had expressed concern over my and Volo's chatting.

Is there really only 11 of us?

So, in conclusion:
innocentish - Boro, Volo
not too worried about - Agan, Noggie, (Gil)
just can't say - morm
slightly worried about - Sixth
seriously worried about - Mith

I have a slightly bad conscience because I feel I trust those I know from RL all too easily...

edit: xed with Agan

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Is there really only 11 of us?

Actually, 9.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Lommy, you said yesterDay you were slightly surprised by the kill choices (Legate and Rikae). May I ask who you would have expected to die, then?

Well, I wasn't expecting anything in particular, but not Rikae or Legate as they had been both (especially Legate) under suspicion and both had done something somewhat suspicion-awakening during the last hours of the previous day (Legate's vote explanation and Rikae's vote).

I'll go to sleep now (it's more than 3.30 am here) but I'll be back tomorrow (RL). Hopefully I will have time to analyse Mith.

edit: xed with Agan. Me and maths.

[mormegil]

tgwbs -> Isabell
morm -> Lommy
Fea -> Gil
Volo -> Sixth
Mith -> Gil
Boro -> Fea (Isabell1, Lommy1, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Sixth -> Lommy (Isabell1, Lommy2, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Lommy -> Isabell (Isabell2, Lommy2, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Agan -> Isabell (Isabell3, Lommy2, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Isabell -> Feanor (Isabell3, Lommy2, Gil2, Fea2)
Shasta -> Gil (Isabell3, Lommy2, Gil3, Fea2)
Noggie -> Isabell (Isabell4, Lommy2, Gil3, Fea2)

Well 2 of the 3 Gil votes were by known innocents. Admittedly I could be wrong about Mith and if I am I deserve to be duped because she has me fooled. Just to make it clear to all and not to debate the point I am going under the assumption that we have a Bear and a pack of 3 wolves. We have a good guy who can kill at night too. That would explain why there was no third kill one night and a kill on the other. Also the good guy or the bear killed Menel. My guess is that the good guy killed Fea as she would have been a good suspect and neither the wolf nor bear would be likely to kill her.

I would feel safe to say that a wolf did not vote for Isabell yesterday but that doesn't mean the bear didn't. That is what complicates this.

So based on voting let's look shall we....

Morm votes the first vote for Lommy. I can't be too objective but I'll try. Lommy was suspicous at the time and continues to be so this vote is not overly significant but leading votes are always a bit suspicious especially when a wolf is killed later and the vote preceding it by an innocent TGWBS was for the wolf. It would seem that perhaps I was trying to avert an Isabell campaign, if so I was very unsuccessful and didn't really campaign strongly for Lommy's death per se.

Volo's vote for Sixth was an odd vote and never caught on. I haven't paid much attention to sixth as nothing has struck me as odd but again first votes are always a bit suspicious and what was said about me could be said here too. Was he trying to lead us astray. Gil may have been an easier choice though which leads us to....

Mith (dang my whole paragraph on Mith was erased) I'll write it again. I see Mith's vote for Gil as the most suspicious so far in as much as Gil is a nonfactor right now and it seems that this vote could have been an attempt to get an easy lynching of an easy candidate. However, would Mith be better served by voting for Lommy or Sixth and pushing a campaign in their direction? Even so, at this point would she realize how quickly the Izabell bandwagon would role. There was only one vote and not a huge amount of talk yet. I feel Mith is innocent and if she has fooled me I deserve to be duped and she deserves credit. I AM going to move her, in my mind, from innocent to slightly suspicious based on what I have said. I just realized in looking back up that Mith's vote was second which is slightly more suspcious because Gil was an easy kill and they almost succeded.

Boro votes for Fea which seems a bit premature to do so. I think this vote very suspicious just like I find Mith's. Fea could prove easy cannon fodder if somebody wanted her lynched and not many have played with her as much as I have (Boro and Mith are some that have) so Boro would realize that it would be easy to get the newer players to suspect her. However, I've been on Fea's team when we were wolves before and I saw her in action so I have a good read on her so that may be some excuse for Boro's vote. Boro is wise and cunning and makes an excellent baddie. He has single handedly beat everybody before so don't put anything past him...ever! He's a top suspect on my list.


I don't a lot of time remaining right now

What I am thinking now is that only those who tried to save Isabell last night are possible wolves. Any that voted for Isabell or others are possible bears so I think we pick off that last wolf today and focus on the bear tomorrow. Hopefully I will come back and do a bit more detail on the other voters too.

[mormegil]

Where is everybody?

Sixth's vote is tough to read because it could be from a wolf (if Lommy is innocent and I don't believe she's a wolf), bear or innocent. I haven't looked at him enough to really get a feel on him yet.


Lommy's vote for Isabell essentially exonerates her of lycanthropy in my mind as well as Agan and Noggie but doesn't eliminate them from being a bear. I would avoid the group that voted for Isabell yesterday as I already said. Hopefully I can review Boromir, Sixth, Volo and Mith in that order. I hope others would help me out on this and hope that people review me a bit more too.

[Boromir88]

I think it's time for me to spill everything. I hope this doesn't turn out to be a bad move, but I think now is the best time. There isn't much time left, and any known innocent (if you all can trust me) is going to give just one less person to have to think about voting for. The only thing is I wish I knew how many more baddies we have amongst us. But anyway...

it can't really be Wolf or Bear as they have kills every Night.~Volo

On there contraire, there is bear...moi. Though I promise I am a Great and good Bear, not a wicked Black Beorning that has turn to evil and kills for pure pleasure. Each night I have the choice of making a kill or guarding somebody (hence why Night 2 there were only 2 kills).

Night 1, Menel was my choice, I was thinking about guarding somebody, because I never want to make a dreadfully wrong choice for a kill. But, I talked myself into having the guts like Ang when he was the madman 007 assassin .

Night 2, I wish I had the guts again because Isabell was my main suspect, but I thought any choice would have just been a shot in the dark, so I decided to guard Mormegil, and not kill that night.

Night 3, I thought first about killing Gil, just so he would no longer be a distraction. Then I changed to Shasta because I thought Shasta's vote at the end looked extremely wolvish, but alas I made an error.

So, there you have it, I am the Great Bear, with the ability to kill someone or guard someone at night. I'm probably going to turn out to be wolf meat tomorrow night, but with all these kills each night, I know we don't have a lot of time. I thought the best thing to do was to reveal, to give everyone a known innocent (if everyone trusts me) and just one less person to have to think about voting for. Also, before I'm dead, I hope to take another wolf down with me, so anything as far as whom I shall kill Night will be of great help and I'll take into consideration.

(I admit having the foolish hope that maybe with two wolves dead, there would be just one kill per Night. It sems I couldn't have been more wrong.)~Thinlo

Perhaps it was like that one village with the Werewolf Packleader? Wasn't there something like the wolves got 2 kills until the Packleader was dead, or was the only one left?

[Thinlómien]

Hmmm... I'm inclined to believe Boro's claim. (Yet a little doubt remains in my mind. I mean, after the gifted-speculations which have taken place and growing suspicion against him, I find making such claim seems just somewhat shrug-worthy....) Well, I guess I'm going to believe him for now. He should die soon enough be he really innocent. (How comforting a thought. ) Besides, a good bear in Anduin Vale sounds just fitting.

Do we have a balck beorning, some evil power opposed to the good bear? Or do we just have two wolf teams? I'm leaning to thinking we have two wolf teams with two (hopefully just two, three would be a disaster) wolves in each. Thus, Menel and Izzie were in different teams, as there still continue to be at least two kills per Night.

Morm, I think a fellow wolf might have voted Izzie in order to look better. That has happened quite often. Also, I'm not sure if a fellow wolf would have risked his/her neck by "trying to save" Izzie. (What "trying to save" votes there even were? The Izzie-wagon advanced quite rapidly and the only ones voting at the time of it, but not voting in it are dead. Makes me wonder...)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Thus, Menel and Izzie were in different teams, as there still continue to be at least two kills per Night.

But why would Izzie have saved Menel then? Or was her vote only random, as she said, and she didn't know Menel was a wolf?

I'm inclined to believe Boro, too. That explains also why all the kills were so brutal.
I think you could forget Gil. If he's a wolf and hasn't been contributing at all, I doubt Spm would let him win. That if anything would be unfair. But on the other hand, if the number of the wolves was as big as or bigger than the number of the contributing innocents, the wolves could just ignore Gil and decide in the thread who to lynch in order to win.
Anyway, maybe better if you try to catch a wolf? That at least improves our chances.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by morm

I would feel safe to say that a wolf did not vote for Isabell yesterday but that doesn't mean the bear didn't.

Apparently, the bear didn't.
However, I agree with Lommy that it's possible that also a wolf voted Izzie.

For two reasons:
1) Excluding tgwbs (dead & innocent) and me (innocent), there are still Lommy and Nogrod who voted for Izzie. I believe the both could vote a fellow wolf, but of those two I think Noggie is more suspicious. When he voted, it was already quite apparent that Isabell would die (she got three votes before Gil), and certainly Nogrod wouldn't try to save a fellow wolf by voting someone else when he has first said he'll probably vote Izzie.
2) If there are two wolf teams, a member of one could easily vote a member of the other. Especially if they don't know each other.

I think Izzie-voters should not be treated differently just because we happened to lynch a wolf.

[The Sixth Wizard]

I'm starting to think like morm now, that wondering what manifest evil we have is getting us off the track. What does it matter, Lommy, what variation of dastardly beasts we have after us? How will it affect our strategy? What we need to do is verify Beorn88's claim and find the evil guys.

Is there really only 11 of us?

*Are there* I do believe.

2) If there are two wolf teams, a member of one could easily vote a member of the other. Especially if they don't know each other.

True. We can't rule out that the wolves didn't vote for another wolf by mistake, or that there are none left. Annoyingly, this rules no-one out, if we just go by votes.

[Mithalwen]

Only time for a skim through .... but I do find it amusing that Lommie suspects me for being non-committal while Nogrod suspects me for certainty.....

Yet to decide about Boromir's alignment......

Ponders.... *goes for lunch and analgeasics*

[Volo]

Hah, Boro, I knew that would be the case and am very happy that it is. You deffinitely looked like the last Gifted (Ranger or Assassin), but now that you turn out to be both. Now that is good. Because that means we have two kills toDay, doesn't it?

As scary as the "M" in McDonalds. Worth attention:
Mithalwen - My top suspect, though I've let my attention down for some time. So many things to take into account...
Mormegil - I'm sure that Rikae and Legate didn't die just because they'd leave little trails. Of all the people, I think Mormegil would be the most capable in doing the deeds.

Worth more attention:
Nogrod - He is on the tip of a knife. I do feel like he's Innocent, unless there are two Wolf teams, and he being on Menel's side. Possible, but I think we should try finding the other Wolf first and see if we win.

Pretty much Innocentish:
Aganzir - The eyes of an Eagle finding all those clues in the narrations. If she's a Wolf, she deserves victory.
The Sixth Wizard - Well, since Izzie was evil, I'm pretty happy thinking that Sixth is Innocent.
Thinlómien - Lommy has pretty much flown out of my radar's reach. Though I'm very happy to think that she's Innocent. So far things have looked in her favour.

The Beauty and the Beast:
Volo - Innocent (and I wouldn't say that were I Wolf, just droppes off the possibility of playing a Gifted).
Boromir88 - As stated in the first lines of this post, I trust him, completely.

The evil behind it all:
Gil-Galad - Forget him, he's not in the game. Although if he is using the flaw SPM's rules and is a Wolf who just sends one PM in a Night and does nothing else, kudos. But you don't deserve victory! Forget him. If he wins, we don't lose and could just swallow our pride and accept it.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Morm, I think a fellow wolf might have voted Izzie in order to look better. That has happened quite often. Also, I'm not sure if a fellow wolf would have risked his/her neck by "trying to save" Izzie. (What "trying to save" votes there even were? The Izzie-wagon advanced quite rapidly and the only ones voting at the time of it, but not voting in it are dead. Makes me wonder...)

There is truth in this Thinlo and if true it is likely that Nogrod would be the wolf. If he broke the tie for Isabell by voting for Gil it wold have only been too obvious perhaps. And voting for a third candidate to even tie it up in three way such as voting Lommy would be pointless as Isabell was the first to reach three votes and would have died. Thank you Lommy for reminding me of this. Too true and Nogrod is not out of suspcion of being a wolf or a black beorning. I highly doubt that Agan is a wolf in that his was the third vote for Isabell but an evil bear is a distinct possibility there.

I am going under the assumption that Boro is innocent as he says. The idea fits perfectly into what I've been saying all along. With that said it is important that we get a baddie tonight. That will give us a bit of breathing room as I speculate kills would drop to one a night. If we don't get one tonight the situation looks grave indeed, especially with Gil (likley innocent) not being around to help out one bit.

[Volo]

In all the possibilities the survivors on Day5:

(Another name could be instead of Mith and/or Morm, but since I suspect them the most I put their names where they are.)

Dead:
Mithalwen - Lynched.
Mormegil - Killed by Boro.
Boromir88 - Killed by Wolf/Wolves.
+ X - If Mith turns out to be Innocent and the Wolves don't both target Boro, then one more person will be dead.

Alive:
Aganzir
Gil-Galad
Volo
Nogrod
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien
- X

1. In the worst case there are five of us left tomorrow. Two of which Wolves. The problem being Nogrod's and Lommy's absence (noted in Admin Thread). Still pretty good chances to win.*

*Ah, maybe no. If Gil is Innocent and doesn't vote. Then we're in trouble.

2. Second worst case would be that we catch only one Wolf and we still have only five survivors (i.e. Boro kills a Wolf but we lynch an Innocent). Much more probable to me than possibility 1.

3. We lynch a Wolf, Boro kills a Wolf, we win straight away.


And don't forget that I'm not putting a Wolf stamp on Mith and Morm yet!


EDIT: Xd with Morm.

[Thinlómien]

Volo - how come you're so sure about the numbers of the gifted and the baddies? I mean, on what grounds do you assume that we have just one gifted left? And on what grounds do you assume we have two wolves around? Have I missed something or are you possibly a bit too quick to jump to assumptions?

I must say, morm's bugging me too. I mean, he seems to pretend to be more stupid than he is. I just feel his arguments are more full of holes than normally, and it troubles me.

As to the absence I talked about in the admin thread, I doubt it will exist as we're probably not going aboard (we've been switching whether we go or not for about a week now... ).

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Volo - how come you're so sure about the numbers of the gifted and the baddies? I mean, on what grounds do you assume that we have just one gifted left? And on what grounds do you assume we have two wolves around? Have I missed something or are you possibly a bit too quick to jump to assumptions?

Ok, I do admit that it was a bit quick to assume. I (and you yourself) don't believe there were six Wolves in total, that would be a bit too much. And anyway, if that is the case, we're already doomed (if the Wolves can win united)...

And I didn't have any need assuming we have more Gifteds. If that is the case, it's great. Anyway, I don't/didn't think we have more Gifteds.

At the moment I think we have (just to make myself clear):
- 2 Wolves, possibly (and probably) from opposite teams.
- 1 Ranger/Assassin, Boromir the Bear
- 6 Innocents

[Nogrod]

Whether one trusts Boro's claim or not one should do well not to vote for him toDay. If he actually is the assassin/ranger I don't believe there is a normal ranger as well. So the wolves (or whichever Godzillas) will kill him during the Night. In the best case he is able to defend himself or to take one baddie with him and in the worst he's just one innocent less. Those of us still alive will know all this toMorrow. So I would leave Boro be even if I'm not at all ready to put it past him to fool us completely here.

Right now I'm growing very suspicious of Mith. Her vote for Gil yesterDay looks pretty bad - even though both Fea and Shasta voted Gil as well. It's just a bad vote and one that a wolf would like to cast.

We should not forget that even though the victorius Isabell-wagon realised itself pretty late on the Day it was clearly something everyone knew was coming. Her getting lynched was no surprise to anyone as so many people had said that they would be voting her. So if Mith is (was) in cahoots with Isabell she would not have wished to vote for her but to bring forwards another candidate, Gil the easy kill that is...

[Aganzir]

Nogrod, could you please explain these comments from Day 2? They keep troubling me.

Originally Posted by Noggie

The familiar logic of all the baddies knowing each other vs. all the blind goodies doesn't work here. . . . So possibly not two sides but three.

To me it seems that you're saying "Hi, I'm a wolf, where's the other team? I know you're out there, we could co-operate."

Originally Posted by Volo

The Beauty and the Beast:
Volo - Innocent (and I wouldn't say that were I Wolf, just droppes off the possibility of playing a Gifted).
Boromir88 - As stated in the first lines of this post, I trust him, completely.

I didn't know there were lovers in this game.

[Nogrod]

Just a quick look at people here. I'll be able to play more nearer the end of the Day but now need to make dinner and clean up before my father comers to visit us.

Gil - let's leave him be. The odds are that he is an innocent and then counts on our numbers. I do agree with Volo here: if he is a wolf and wins he doesn't actually win. The moral victory would be ours then.

Boro - as I said let's see it with him toMorrow for the next Night will tell us a
lot about him anyway.

Aganzir and Lommy - they both feel genuine but I must admit that they have more or less flown under my radars and I would need to change that. I hope get a klook at them later toDay.

Morm - it's good to see morm back on action after those oneliner Days. Not one I would be happy to vote toDay as he can be a useful villager. But I need to read him a bit more closely before making any judgements.

Volo - as odd as always . He's one of those I find extremely hard to grasp (like Rune).

The Sixth - after Isabell turned out a wolf I think it highly unlikely that Sixth is a wolf as well (two wolves trying to save their mate just minutes apart from each other). But if the wolves (or whatever baddies there are) don't know about each other it could be possible though.

Mith - I'm getting suspicious of (see my earlier post). I'm going to read her later toDay to see whether my suspicions are worth something.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Nogrod, could you please explain these comments from Day 2? They keep troubling me.

To me it seems that you're saying "Hi, I'm a wolf, where's the other team? I know you're out there, we could co-operate."

In the quote I was actually just reminding us that we can't probably interpret the Nightly kills in traditional manner as there is a chance that the wolves (godzillas, whatever) don't know each other or that there may even be three sides and thence the logic is different. Now I would only add that the very same thing adheres to our interpretation of the Day's voting as well...

Even as we don't know the exact structure of this game there assumedly are two sets of baddies ranging from 1-3 each side. If they could win in cahoots the game would be highly inbalanced against us. And why then there being two different camps if they can win together? And if they can't they will be rivals to each other. And that is good news to us.

There being an actual competition between the baddies would make the game more even as well: lots of baddies around but rivalling each other. I think that would sound like a Spm game.

The only thing that kind of bothers me with this interpretation is that how come the baddies haven't killed any other baddies during the Nights? Just bad luck? That brings me to the question about who killed Menel in the first place? Boro said he did it and that sounds believable. But is he what he claims to be? Well, we'll see about that toMorrow.

Gah. Confusing...

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Mith, #79

and more than one wolf - probably more than two since, I think it would be unusual and technically incorrect ot use some when referring to two. Two wolves in such a large village would be suprising

I have a mighty feeling that Mith is Izzie's pair. And that there are two Wolf teams, both of two Wolves.
That comment feels like a bit too much knowledge has been given to much. As is she knew that there are (or might be) two teams of two Wolves. Ok, I might be overthinking, but...

[Nogrod]

Here's what Mith has said about Isabell in this whole game...

#99
And Isabellkya has returned and is new and perhaps should be given a chance (we have perhaps enough candidates for one night) . But I would say that quiet people survive because they are given the benefit of the doubt too long .. and then sometime villages panic or are manipulated into lynching them when there is no room for error and find that they were innocent all along.

#180
Izzy seems to be a Gil-stitute.. which wouldn't be so bad if we didn't also, in theory also have Gil.

#312
Isabellkya reminds me a lot of Gil in behaviour. Has attracted the attention, been given the benefit of the doubt at first and then attracted a fair number of votes.

Funny that she doesn't even comment on the most suspicious issue with Isabell (the Menel-saving vote), not to say she would have even considered voting her... A wolf-mate would do just that, stay silent about the topics that bring your ally to the fore and just ignore them.

I would say Mith seems to be avoiding discussing Isabell and that I find suspicious.

[Mithalwen]

Volo, my word were based on a thorough knowledge of the English language and common sense.

Perhaps we should ask Nogrod why voting Gil was so bad when he suggested. There will be laughter in paradise from me if you lynch me and Gil turns out to be a wolf.

I think Nogrod has been suspicious with his commments and voting. When I sussed out Menel he applauded my thoughts - but failed to make the vote that would have lynched him. Now he seems to claim that my success was based on knowledge not good instincts - with what intent? My guess is he has been keeping me around as a foil - needed to keep a few talkers to stop him looking so exposed. No doubt he will claim some Agent Provocateur role but I think Loup-Provocateur is more likely.

If I look suspicious - do you not think that was intended to a point? I got lynched night one last game for looking so innocent. Of course if is a hard act to balance.
Lynching me won't help the innocents at all.

[Mithalwen]

Your late vote saved Menel in my opinion. And though we know now that Isabeelkya was a wolf we don't know that you are innocent. Isabella at least at that point was a hapless newbie. You are not.

Attack is clearly your chosen form of defence but when I challenged you, you became very defensive. Histrionic almost....

[Volo]

You might want to examine the chat between Nogrod and Mith during Day1. Seems like they found out each other's teams there. That is they do feel like Wolves and there were many things that hint of their understanding on Day1. Just read through Nogrod's and Mith's posts.


Day2:

Nogrod encourages the idea of Durelin triggering her own death.
Also he symphasises with Izzie (until her death is pretty clear later on).
#144 Is a wierd little rant that might be worth noticing.

A lot of pretty empty talk from both Nogrod and Mith who now began quarelling together. Still rather weak and safe talk, no real accusations, but slowly advancing. Given that there are two opposite Wolf teams, this might be a Wolf on Wolf arguing.

Nogrod "creates difference in the voting" by raising an anti-Izzie campaing. I still have no idea whatsoever what the wisdom of that was... He mentions it only once during Day3 and doesn't go for any analyses. Just to create some talk hiding the real Wolves?


Day3:

Mith thinks of Izzie as the second Gil-Galad. Might be a good trick, as GG is usually lynched Innocent from pure paranoia.

Nogrod slowly moves to the lynching of Izzie though still keeping Sixth as a possibility. Says that he might be turned to vote Gil, I think he should have known better...

In #344 Nogrod still gives himself loads of space giving many names he might vote. Wouldn't an Innocent want to be more clear by the cost of not being able to change the suspect in the last minute as there is no sure information anyway. Well, ok, I have to admit that voting in the last minute is pretty typical with Nogrod, but...


Day4 (toDay):

Nogrod's post #387 looks fake. If Izzie's demise was already so certain, why did you have so many suspects to the very end and why, in that case, would Mith still try saving Izzie to look bad next Day?

I feel that your are waiting for Boro to survive next Night. Anyway, that is something an Innocent shouldn't have mentioned. If Boro survives the Night, he might be the one lynched tomorrow. I think that's a bad idea.


Having said that I'll stay with my main suspects: Mith, Morm and Nogrod. I'm even feeling like leaving Morm the possibility to defend himself tomorrow, though I think that there will be no need for that if we lynch/Borokill Mith and Nogrod. It's just such a soap.

I shoud have a break now, too much WW makes you feel confused.

[Volo]

Oh, Nogrod. Your post #391 was pretty lame, as you yourself used words very similar to those about Izzie. Sorry, that felt a move a bit too confident.

But neither has Mith drawn sympathy with those posts.


Hey! Anobody else awake, or are you the Wolves staying low and laughing at the loud ones as they tear each other into pieces?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlo

I must say, morm's bugging me too. I mean, he seems to pretend to be more stupid than he is. I just feel his arguments are more full of holes than normally, and it troubles me.

*sighs*

Well I am glad I'm bugging you, honestly, but I'm sorry if my arguements don't match up to your superior air tight cases presented to all of us. I'm doing the best I have when I have time. Perhaps since I'm not as prolific in my post as in times past it's easier to see the lack of lucidity in my thoughts.

Anyway Mith seems passionate and when she does get this way I find her even easier to read and honestly I see her as very lucid and intact. I say she is innocent. Nogrod on the the other hand continues to look more guilty by the minute to me. He seems insincere and not very genuine. It feels as though he's putting on an act...notice Lommy a lot of what I am saying are feelings so possibly not air tight .

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Well I am glad I'm bugging you, honestly, but I'm sorry if my arguements don't match up to your superior air tight cases presented to all of us. I'm doing the best I have when I have time. Perhaps since I'm not as prolific in my post as in times past it's easier to see the lack of lucidity in my thoughts.

Alright, alright. But I wasn't comparing to my "air tight" cases, but to your previous cases in previous games. I know you wanted to try a different, "less serious" approach to ww, but that does not mean you'll get away with playing dumb...

As to Mith, her reactions to the accusations against her just scream a wolf. Both her insincerity and her retaliatory attack against Nogrod right after Aganzir had questioned him. A bit like a desperate wolf trying to make a case against someone who the village might turn against...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Volo

I feel that your are waiting for Boro to survive next Night. Anyway, that is something an Innocent shouldn't have mentioned. If Boro survives the Night, he might be the one lynched tomorrow. I think that's a bad idea.

I guess Boro could speak himself out of the situation pretty easily, were he a beorning or a wolf. And I think the wolves should know it also, so it's just easier for them if they kill him. Unless they have a very good tactic how to get him lynched...

Noggie and Mith are my main suspects at the moment, and I will probably vote either of them.

Mith has been slipping under my radar, and that's not a good thing. She's been voting quite safely, except the first Day when she voted Menel. But I think she could be a wolf as well, especially if she and Menel were in different teams. But then I don't know about Izzie - if the wolf teams consisted of two wolves, why would Izzie have saved Menel if they weren't in the same team? Or was it not deliberate, and she didn't know he was a wolf?

I've gradually started to feel quite bad about Noggie during these last two Days. I had actually started doing an analysis of him toDay, but then my computer destroyed it and I thought I won't do it again (at least not yet, as I'm afraid I don't have the patience at the moment). But even that stump of an analysis made him look quite suspicious. Jumpy. Not genuine.

I'm quite sure that either Nogrod or Mith is a wolf (if not both). We can lynch one toDay, and Boro might kill the other at Night?

[Nogrod]

What is this now?

What more do you people require?

I'm very sorry that I have only been able to pick up one baddie / Day this far.

Talking of which... lynching Mith could give us one more. Her outright silence on Isabell & ducking the issue just scream a wolf. And note also Lommy's points just a few posts back.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Agan

I guess Boro could speak himself out of the situation pretty easily, were he a beorning or a wolf. And I think the wolves should know it also, so it's just easier for them if they kill him. Unless they have a very good tactic how to get him lynched...

Just warning... and saving Boro from wasting his time.

Originally Posted by Agan

Mith has been slipping under my radar, and that's not a good thing. She's been voting quite safely, except the first Day when she voted Menel. But I think she could be a wolf as well, especially if she and Menel were in different teams. But then I don't know about Izzie - if the wolf teams consisted of two wolves, why would Izzie have saved Menel if they weren't in the same team? Or was it not deliberate, and she didn't know he was a wolf?

Let's not make wild guesses on how well the Wolves know each other. Though there did seem to be flirtation between Nogrod and Mith during the first Day. I think that maybe only later Mith understood that Menel is also a Wolf. (Two She-Wolfes and two He-Wolves as teams?)

Well, I agree with Aganzir. But though there is no real need to hurry, it would be good to start deciding already now.


EDIT: Xd with Nogrod