WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men

[Mithalwen]

"It is not one I am prepared to take though. Rikae those were not linked. I do not belive Nogrod ot be a wolf. I do think it is possible that our guardian may have been able to protect teh same person twice. I think it hightly unlikely that a lill was missed accidentally - there is only one incident in the books of Lore of such a thing happening that I know of, but most guardians may not protect the same person twice. Therefore the wolves were most likely going to go for the same victim and the guardian assumed this and used their unusual power again. That is how I read last nights events. " responded Mithalwen.

[Macalaure]

"The words of Nogrod and the Guy who be short:

The whole thing started with Guy's strange, but excusable, behaviour on Day One. Nogrod appreciates Guy's vote and even defends it from Lhuna.
Then, later, he has mixed feelings about him. His reasoning is fair, but it comes a bit out of the blue. He then lists Guy as one minor suspicious and doesn't mention him anymore before he votes him even though an other of his suspects is in the lead.

The next day, Nogrod is suspicious about Guy's over-friendliness, but the supposed ineptitude of the wolves lessens his suspicion. He defends his vote before anybody was able to accuse him (explicable). Guy doesn't like the way Nogrod treated him the last day (of course) and is suspicious of him in turn. Nogrod explains his vote more. Guy understands then, but takes up Izzy's point and accuses Nogrod about being more busy with self-preservation than the interest of the group, a statement which is not very sustainable. Of course, it makes Nogrod suspicious again immediately.
Guy is now convinced about Nogrod's guilt because of his theoretical statements which he doesn't agree with. Nogrod gets a little bit angry in turn because he feels not listened to and misrepresented. I think both are both wrong and right in this part of their argument.
Guy then goes into mathematics to prove his point, which maybe he shouldn't have done. He also takes back the self-preservation argument and mostly drops his suspicion of Nogrod. This flip-flop has very innocentish-confused feel to me.
Nogrod then forms the theory that Guy was trying to launch a bandwaggon against him and gave up on the attempt. This argument is quite a leap in reasoning. It's also strange because by it he makes Guy appear in a bad light while he avoids the term "wolf".

Today, Guy is suspicious again because of the bandwaggon thing. His stance is quite defensive, but reasonable. He also accuses Nogrod of trying to distract us. Nogrod doesn't really answer to all this because he would rather go after wolves. But then, Nogrod ignoring Guy's points strengthens Guy's opinion. Understandable as an innocent, convenient as a wolf, I'd say. I don't like it that Guy calls it a "test".
Nogrod answers quite furiously, now. He points out flaws in Guy's arguments, which are valid points as far as I can see. There's something fuzzy about his tone here, and I don't mean the furor. He doesn't go as far as to call Guy guilty, which is quite consistent.
In response, Guy re-presents his reasoning and the course of his suspicion. He is not unaggressive, but he's also very straightforward, which gives an innocent feel again.
Nogrod's response is somewhat strange. He claims that Guy is being retaliatory, which I do not see, and points out that somebody who makes a wrong case isn't necessarily evil. There's an appeasing tone which I hold a little suspicious. It's strange that he is so sure about this half-innocent-half-guilty thing.


Quite passionate and enjoyable debate there - a soon-to-be classic maybe. Both have leaps in their reasoning, but mostly argue sound. So, I'm afraid, it comes down to tone, which is naturally a very subjective thing. I think the Guy wins here, because his straightforwardness is far less suspicious than Nogrod's occasional evasiveness and appeasing tone.


So... yeah... because something's fishy in his posts:

++Nogrod."


(crossed with Guy and Mith)

[Nogrod]

"Do you Brinn actually believe that someone of my family would miss a kill while a wolf? I mean honestly? Or to pick up one Beleg protected the first Night for that matter? I'm not sure if I'd need to feel insulted indeed with this... You all can sleep and ignore things as much as you want but at my age we don't need the sleep that much and we still retain our wits not to lose kills if in position to make them...

So your argument is faulty because we know the wolves missed last night - and were clumsy the Night before. That's not me you're looking for.

I would go for Gil or Izzy from whom these slips could be anticipated. Or then Mith as it is possible she missed a thing or two - or to Lhuna the suspicion over whom I share with Rikae as I told you earlier. She seems too happy to trail throwaway points made by others when they serve her purposes.

But anyhow, it's your choice and I know you can't take my word as I say it. But as I said, if I'm dead the wolves will rejoice and those voting me with non-existant reasons hopefully will have very hard times toMorrow.

I'm just afraid no one here will then have the willpower to actually sit down and analyse the outcome and thence the wolves win... but I'm hopeful anyway."

[Mithalwen]

Mithalwen spoke again " You fail to consider, Mac, another possibility of why Nogrod may seem evasive and less straightforward. It is the possibility I have suspected for a while and now believe though I do not know. I may indeed be misguided but I beg you reconsider." The woman fell silent again, biting her lower lip anxiously.

[Mithalwen]

"While it ill behoves me to speak against the absentees, I find it disconcerting that Gil spoke more before in the time before he left thanI have ever heard him speak. If the theory stands that a kill was missed then he I would suspect. " Mithalwen tried desperately to draw attetion to other possibilities.

[Macalaure]

While he was preparing/recovering from his speech, Rikae and Mith addressed Macalaure and he now found the breath to respond to them.

"Rikae, those two, Nogrod and Guy, probably aren't objectively the obvious choices, but to me, right now, they are. I'm not pursueing Izzy, Mith or Gil, because lynching a third silent one in a row will do us no favour, and you, Brinn and Lhuna I really don't feel guilty so far, in contrast to Nogrod and Guy.

Tomorrow, I will reconsider all this, hopefully with more evidence to look at.


I understand where you are coming from, Mith, but I still think Nogrod's guilt to be the more likely reason than other things."

[Mithalwen]

Mithalwen snorted to herself. Whatever the straits she would not have failed in her duty even as a servant of Morgoth. Had it been her duty to kill she would have found a way.

[Nogrod]

"Did I say I'm hopeful? Not so much any more I must say...

But if I need to go let me speak my mind then - and I hope this time you listen. You'll learn the sincerity of this soon enough it seems.

I still think our wolves missed last Night. And unlike guy proposes I was online yesterDay comfortably and would never miss a kill - I would call someone on sms or whatever if I had personal troubles getting there inbto the spiritual world... this I feel a bit insulted about, that you seem to think that I would be that stupid or unresourceful. Sorry but I had to say this. Otherwise everything's fine.

Lhuna, if a wolf is the most cunning one but not unfathomable as her way of manipulating - as Rikae said - can be noticed.

Mac then I'm also very unhappy about right now. He is intelligent man but still refuses to see the point (clumsy wolves) and after looking at his posts I find them pretty odd. He seems to start almost every speech that he has concerning me with "Nogrod is suspicious... but he has a good point". Now what is this? Only now lately he has gotten encouraged to leave the pleasantries aside - even his last post looks quite calculatedly apologetical as one comes to think of it.

I mean Mac please tell me, how come you think the best option toDay is lynching the guy or me, the only ones who have actually tried a bit more and given some effort? Isn't it the best for the wolves if the speakers are taken out?

And if someone should be suspected for the "leaving a kill unmade" during the Night then you fit the description perfectly. To see how you now defend the quiets is just perfect wolf-tactics.

Mark my words toMorrow.

I'll have some more of them after a sjhort break but encourage you to consider thinking about these clumsy wolves whom we clearly seem to have around here."

[Rikae]

"Mithalwen, whatever Nogrod is, I don't think that he is Turin.

His last post has a very desperate feel to it; and the fact that he goes back to his old arguments doesn't look good at all.

I'm not at all confident about this, but the sun is setting; and, at the very least, this way we will know something tomorrow.

++Nogrod"

EDIT: Crossed with Mac, Mith & Nogrod

[Mithalwen]

"I never said I thought he was" said Mithalwen "but my heart tells me this is folly".

[Nogrod]

"Oh my...

Well you innocents can only blame yourselves.

Being lazy comes with a prize.

When you all vote for me just to be comfortable and to fit in the majority - to save your own necks, possibly? - you will have no readout from toDay's voting either.

So you are in the zero position toMorrow.

Fools you are but that's going to be your problem from toMorrow on.

I'll still peep in before I lay to your axe for I hope I can do you a favour still toDay. Although I'm not sure if you deserve that favour..."

Nogrod laughed to himself and looked around emphatically. Oh people, won't you ever learn... He shook his head and thought.

[Brinniel]

"Nogrod, you started the Day agreeing that a no-kill could be a strategic move, and now you have changed your mind? And Rikae, I do not think he is Turin either....or Nienor for that matter. If he were, he would have been kind enough to reveal by now, knowing his fate for some time.

"I am becoming less and less suspicious of tgwbs and more unsure of him. His arguments toDay have made more sense.

"Of Mithalwen, if Nogrod is guilty, she's innocent...but if he is innocent I will take a closer look at her toMorrow.

"And Nogrod, I am still mildly suspicious of Izzy, but as I said before, I didn't want a quiet one to be lynched again. But I will definitely take interest in her toMorrow.

"And now, to finalise this:

++Nogrod

"Honestly, if he is not a wolf, I will be shocked."

[Mithalwen]

"What kind of logic is that" demanded Mithalwen " ...setting up a victim for the lazy tomorrow Brinniel?". If he is innocent why is it that the one who defended him is suspicious.. not those who were so eager for his death. I am spoilt for choice as to where to cast my vote for to me you seem complicit and blind to what seems obvious to me "

[Nogrod]

"Okay.

I'm addressing this to toMorrow for those of you alive still. You need a view from a known innocent toMorrow anyway in this mess.

I'm not Turin. I said it already but as that seems to pop up again I'll restate this. So you're not killing two toDay.

I happen to be an innocent though and well... that was your choice. Blame yourselves toMorrow - but also look closely those who triggered this and those who were too happy to follow. Especially those who hadn't voiced that strong suspicions on me earlier but were now happy to jump for a vote - notwithstanding how reservedly they made they vote.

Unforunately you all went under the same spell and the voting record will give you too many candidates. What's even worse, with your enthusiasm you've left a wolf a chance to not vote me as I'm dead with your innocent votes already.

If the wolves missed last Night and were short-sighted yesterNight then they are from the pack of Gil, Izzy and Mith.

If it was a purposeful tactical move look at Mac and Rikae. Their carefulness earlier and resolve toDay makes them look pretty bad in myh eyes right now.

And see how they went in concerto to wonder that whether that was a deliberate tactical move by the wolves it must have been me who's behind it. But the whole idea behind the trick is that you should do it if no one suspects you! That fits to them but not to me.

And Mac's half-hearted defence of the quiets really bothers me now as it wouldbe the perfect wolf-strategy right now.

Also Rikae's claim that going back to old arguments is somehow suspicious is frivolous when the situation is that everyone seems to have forgotten what our situation is as everyone were so keen to follow any drop-outs from the little discussion between me and the guy. So going back to our real task was good, not bad.

Which brings me back to the guy. If he hadn't popped in at the last hour with those funny ideas I would have said that don't lynch him because he is innocent. Maybe he is Androg, or maybe there isn't such a role. He feels innocentish but then again he started this whole thing in a way and kept it going. If we have a cobbler here, guy is the one. Unfortunately you can't afford to lynch him toMorrow anymore to check it...

Lhuna is either a manipulative wolf or then a short-sighted innocent thinking first and foremosat of her own survival... You have to find out which.

I'm not sure if I mentioned everyone here. But there's little time left.

I'll try to figure out which I think the most probable before the blade."

[Mithalwen]

"From many suspects I cast my pointless vote

++Brinniel

for two very safe votes and a bit of dubious gender bending...."

[Brinniel]

"Mithalwen, if he is indeed innocent, I didn't say it would confirm your guilt. But I would find it possible that a wolf would loudly defend someone they knew was an innocent in order to avoid a lynching toMorrow.

"But you really shouldn't have to worry about that because right now I think Nogrod is guilty and therefore, you innocent (a wolf wouldn't be so foolish to defend a fellow wolf so strongly, in my opinion). "

[Macalaure]

"I've been suspected for defending the quiet outlaws. This is not true. I'm not saying Izzy, Gil or Mith are innocent, it's quite possible that one of these is a wolf. However, having lynched two silents recently, I don't think it's a good idea to do it again. It would be possible that we would find us in the same evidence-less situation tomorrow again!
I also can hardly believe that both wolves come from this group, which makes the idea of sleepy wolves that forgot to kill appear mysterious.

I don't even suspect Nogrod that much, but everyone else looks less suspicious to me. I agree with Nogrod that the vote count is horrible, and it's good that he's providing us with his latest thoughts."

[Nogrod]

"The last words it is then.

I'm still inclined to believe in these clumsy wolves. But the only problem in that is would Morgoth have chosen such a clumsy duo to do his bidding? That you should think toMorrow.

The idea of Mac and Rikae would make much more sense from the standpoint of Morgoth who chose them in the first place. And they would have played skillfully with it. Although I'm not sure if I'd run to compliment them afterwards as I think their win in the end would have been achieved mainly by them being quiet. And that's not sporty behaviour I'd wait from them. And mostly achieved by guy who kept me away from discussing other things than his "points"...

I'll be not saying anything about the possible guilt or innocence of the guy. He was the most entertaining person here by a mile. He tried and argued and that made things fun. Really young man, it was good to talk with you even if you were wrong..."

Nogrod took a step forwards and hugged the younger man.

"I hope you're innocent and will bag the wolves for me after this... promise?"

He looked at the young man into the eyes and nodded to him encouragingly. At the same time he heard Mith voting and turned his head towards her.

"Oh, Brinn... that I'll leave up to you.

By the way this last minute silence is quite telling as well... Check out toMorrow who have been up late and who have now fallen back after a confidence of their succeeding vote. Just a hint..."

Nogrod turned to face the people.

"I'm ready. Do what you wish if you're still awake. It's fair that the old ones go first. Let the Valar bless you innocents even if you make bad decisions. And protect Turín and Nienor, otherwise you won't live for too long."

Suddenly something distracted him. It was Macalaure.

"Oh Mac... your explanations sound hollow at this moment... Save them for toMorrow and let's see what people think of them then. Now let an old man die in peace."

Then he kneeled down and laid his head low.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

"It is settled, then," said Lhuna. "It's you, Nogrod."
The old man's eyebrow rose. "You surely don't know what you are talking about. I am not in any way connected with these hounds of Morgoth!"
"But we chose you," said the guy who be short, picking up a long rope. "Come on, do not prolongate it."
Nogrod gave the short guy a scornful look. "What do you want me to do? Let myself bound up like a dog? There is no way you make me do it."
"But we – we chose you," stammered Isabellkya. The outlaws gave each other uncertain looks. The old man was sitting, almost leaning his back against the wall, but everyone saw his muscles stretching, he was ready to move in a moment. Nogrod was old and short, but stout and strong man, and most of them knew he could defeat one of them in a fight without any trouble.
"We have to move together," said Macalaure. "Let's take the weapons and surround him. He cannot face us all..."
Angered, Nogrod jumped up. "Youngsters!" he shouted. "That's what happens always when they gain power! Young blood, no senses! Look at yourselves!"
He lifted up his hands. "I am unarmed. And there is good seven of you, and still you are afraid of me. I am not a werewolf, damn you! Those you seek are among you!"
"We are not afraid of you," said Rikae. "If you attempt something, I can finish you, even though I am older. You saw it the first day."
"And that's exactly how it's going to end," said Nogrod. "Fools! I am not a werewolf!"
"That's what we shall see," said the guy who be short.
"Enough talk! Let's kill him!" cried Macalaure. To encourage his companions, he picked up a short spear that was laying near the wall.
Nogrod reached to his belt. The drawn blade glinted in the light of lamps hanging from the ceiling. "I am not going to get myself killed! This is the last warning!"
But the outlaws finally decided to move. The guy who be short charged at Nogrod with sword drawn, but the old man parried his blow with such strength that the attacker was hurled backwards. Turning, Nogrod avoided Macalaure's strike and slashing with his sword, he cut the spear in half.
Suddenly, Brinn sprang up in front of the condemned outlaw. There was a glimmer of a blade and then an iron clash.
"You almost surprised me," muttered Nogrod, in the last moment stopping the blow few inches far from his throat. "You are quick, young girl," he said, "but you are also weak," and with force, he pressed Brinn's blade further from himself. But at the same moment Isabellkya leapt to his side and taking advantage of the old man's momentary incautiousness, she stabbed her dagger deep in his back. Voicelessly, Nogrod tumbled to the ground, dropping his sword; and falling on his face between his bag, his tea-cup and the last slice of bread, the old man died.

"Was he a wolf?" was the first question asked.
The outlaws surrounded the dead body. No change was seen.
"Oh, no," came through Lhuna's lips.
"Another night full of fear," muttered Mithalwen.
"Damn it!" said Brinn. "I was sure we were right this time."
"Apparently not," said Rikae. "Gah! But I fear this loss may prove deadly for many of us."
"If there is even hope for us," said Macalaure, turning away.

The inhabitants of Amon Rûdh – dead:

Ibun son of Mîm, killed by a Werewolf on Night 1
Shasta alias Saeros, outnumbered and stabbed on Day 1
Xyzzy the Outlaw, stoned to death on Day 2
Nogrod the old Outlaw, caught off his guard on Day 3

The inhabitants of Amon Rûdh – living:
Mîm the Petty Dwarf, outside the hill for an unexpectably prolonged period
Rikae
Macalaure
Isabellkya
Brinniel
Lhunardawen
Gil-Galad, outside the hill for an unexpectably prolonged period
the guy who be short
Mithalwen

Night 4 begins. Outlaws sleep. Túrin, Beleg and werewolves discuss. Whoever has anything to send, PM me ASAP.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Once again, two dark shadows were creeping in the stony halls. Once again, they trod towards their victim. Penetrating the darkness with their sharp senses, they easily found the place where their prey was hiding.
Once again, they were not the only ones who was awake in the room.

"Step closer and I will change you from the wolf to a hedgehog," said a voice coming from the corner. In the dim light of a suddenly revealed lantern the werewolves saw a dark figure with face covered, holding a long black bow. They have seen that bow before.
"I am not joking," said the person. "And you can bet I can shoot. If that Dwarf didn't force me to break my bow, you will see what is a good bow in the hands of a good bowman. But now you still have the chance. Now, back up! You survived this far, but I can spare you of your victory."
The werewolves hesitated for a moment. There was a possibility that the man bluffed. But the bow they saw was the bow that nearly hit them twice. They did not want to risk anything. Slowly, they retreated back into the dark tunnel.

"Fools," said Andróg, smiling to himself. "What is some Beleg against me?"


When the first rays of sunlight touched the hill, short figure of Mîm appeared in the cave entrance. He was carrying a heavy sack. "Mîm found some roots," he said, dropping it on the ground.
"And that's everything you brought?" asked Rikae. "Where is the one who accompanied you?"
"I am here," said Gil-Galad as he entered the cave. The other outlaws looked at him with surprise: He was bruised, dirty and appeared exhausted. He more fell than sat to the ground. "We did not find much, there were no animals nearby and we were afraid to wander too far into the woods. So the Dwarf decided to bring some roots, he says they are edible."
"Yes, good," nodded Mîm. "The Men may prepare their food now, the sun has risen..."
"What did you do out there so long?" asked Brinn suspiciously.
Gil-Galad looked at her with weary eyes. "Damn wilderness," he said. "The day before I was hunting some deer or what it was – and I hurt my leg. We had to camp outside, because we couldn't return till sunset. And in the morning, I realized that little creature just disappeared!"
"Mîm was searching for some herbs to help the Man," explained the Dwarf.
"Yes," said Gil-Galad. "But I thought the scoundrel left me there to die and..."
"...and so you went home alone with hurt leg, and when Mîm returned, he didn't find you," assumed Macalaure.
"Well, yes," said Gil-Galad.
"So it's just your own fault, then," said Mithalwen. "You should have believed him."
"Mîm spent half the day searching for the Man," said the Dwarf. "His leg is better now, but still it took us long to reach Amon Rûdh. We had to camp out for one more night before we could climb up here."
Gil-Galad only muttered something to himself and laid on the stony floor, completely exhausted.

The inhabitants of Amon Rûdh – dead:

Ibun son of Mîm, killed by a Werewolf on Night 1
Shasta alias Saeros, outnumbered and stabbed on Day 1
Xyzzy the Outlaw, stoned to death on Day 2
Nogrod the old Outlaw, caught off his guard on Day 3

The inhabitants of Amon Rûdh – living:
Mîm the Petty Dwarf
Rikae
Macalaure
Isabellkya
Brinniel
Lhunardawen
Gil-Galad
the guy who be short
Mithalwen

Day 4 begins. Night is over, no more talks in shadow. A new day has risen, start to talk, everyone who is alive in these halls!

[Brinniel]

Brinn looked around at the others, and when no one spoke, she started:

"Well, it seems that Nogrod was right after all and Androg really is among us; once again, someone was protected. It is already Day 4, and there is yet to be a wolf kill...these wolves really are clumsy, yet at the same time, they remain so well hidden.

"The events of yesterDay turned out to be a complete disaster, and we know that at least one, possibly two wolves were in on the bandwagon. The only good that has come out of this is at least we now have someone's thoughts to analyse, and while we cannot know anything about his suspicions for sure, Nogrod was correct on something, so hopefully his death will give us some clue onto who may be our wolves.

"It is essential we catch a wolf toDay in order to maintain our survival. Right now I want to take a closer look at Izzy and Gil-Galad as I think it is most likely at least one wolf is among them. Hopefully Gil isn't too exhausted to place some input toDay because we really need to hear from him.

"For the time being, I need to take a closer look at what Nogrod had to say, and everyone else, for that matter. I want to think things over before I speak anymore."

[Isabellkya]

Izzy gazed around at the sleeping group of outlaws and noticed that Gil had returned, and that Brinniel was awake. She counted the numbers, and thanked good fortune that once again everyone had escaped the night unscathed.

'I as well find it a bit odd, yet fortunate that the wolves have failed to kill one of our numbers for the fourth night in a row. I wonder what could be behind this. I will sit here and marinate upon my thoughts for the moment.'

[Gil-Galad]

Gil looked around after hearing from the remainder about the comments on himself earlier

"So our fellow Shasta was one of them eh? what surprises me is that after i voted out shasta as a werewolf, i was immediately attacked the next day for being one myself... do i really have to point out the idiocy of that now? why would a werewolf root out his fellow one in the first day? that would lower the chances of them wolves surviving greatly... and my dear Brinniel has been adamant in reminding everyone about me... i'm sorry but that sounds like your a wolf trying top sway everyone to get rid of my hunches of other wolves... you, my dear brinniel, are my prime suspect for being a dirty wolf!"

Gil's voiced rasied as he sat back in a corner and ate some of the roots he gathers

"++Brinniel!!! out with her, if you don't beleive me and then decide to kill me off, you will all know anyways, so either kill brinn today or kill her next day after i'm dead, your choices!! but let my last wish be that wolf be killed after me...or i will come back from the dead and stuff..."

[Brinniel]

Hearing Gil-Galad's words, Brinn folded her arms, raising an eyebrow.

"Gil, you obviously have some catching up to do. We do not know whether Shasta as Saeros was on the wolf side. In fact with Androg among us, it's looking more likely Saeros was simply here to steal Turin's role as Androg has stolen Beleg's. Unless you have a reason to know otherwise...

"I have never seriously suspected you alone, Gil. Frankly, I had no clue what to think with you away and all. I mentioned you in my speeches, as have many others, simply so we would not overlook your silence and the possibility you might be furry.

"And your hunches of other wolves? But you have said practically nothing thus far...I do not understand what you mean. What makes you so confident I'm a wolf, anyways? I do not like this quick and aggressive attack you've placed on me, and it has poor reasoning behind it. I seriously hope this isn't all you have to say toDay because if it is, things will not be looking good for you..."

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

"And your hunches of other wolves? But you have said practically nothing thus far...I do not understand what you mean. What makes you so confident I'm a wolf, anyways? I do not like this quick and aggressive attack you've placed on me, and it has poor reasoning behind it. I seriously hope this isn't all you have to say toDay because if it is, things will not be looking good for you..."

Gil quickly looked over

"of course not, if i get voted out then my role as innocent will be determined and your role as my chief prosecutor will be in question and it will be your funeral too... so you can either give up this continus adamant againest me and work together if you are indeed an innocent amongst us or continue this..." Gil looked around for words "crusade of yours againest me and spell your own doom, this will either end up into two innocents dying or one innocent sacrificing themselves for a wolf to be rooted out, i would perfer that one shall stand and one shall fall but now is not the time to point fingers at lesser people in this cave! If you are indeed ready to put aside your attack on me then i will do all in my power to hope that our other brethern do not band wagon on you to take you down as an innocent, but if you defend againest this statement, a statement that has offered you a way to live, then i call upon my brothers to make you reveal yourself to who you are and be rid of us!"

Gil, with eyes afired, continued to stare at brinn

"i admit that i am not sure if you are indeed for certain wolf or innocent, but i must defend myself, as you and others have said i have lacked in, and i will not take these threats of death lightly! i will indeed fight to my death and see a sunrise again! so here is my defense my dear brinniel, and now you must make your choice and spare me anymore talks of me being unresponsive, you know well enough of my absence and now that i am back i will not go quietly into the night!"

Gil sat back down and draped a blanket over himself

[Lhunardawen]

Roused by Gil's outbursts, Lhuna sat up in her straw bed with a jerk, and panic washed over her as it does over a student who oversleeps. But she soon saw that everyone was yet alive, and again she felt relieved and wary at the same time.

"Has this even happened in the villages of old?" she asked no one in particular. "I am quite confident the wolves are making history on this hill. Never before has any creature of Morgoth failed so greatly in his task! In this I am more fully convinced that inexperienced wolves are among us.

"YesterDay was certainly a disaster, and alas that Nogrod spoke the truth! But if his death gains us anything, it's that I'm sure a wolf or both of them could be revealed by intense recollection of yesterDay's proceedings.

"The first to vote for him was tgwbs, and we need not be reminded of the misunderstanding they had. But tgwbs seemed sincere, and I doubt he would be so reckless as to be so noisy, and to start the whole thing, so to speak, if he was a wolf. This makes me believe him innocent.

Izzy

[the guy who be short]

Guy awoke and looked around once more, counting heads, before being told that the wolves had been thwarted once again. He sighed.

"While it is indeed good news that the Wolves were defeated once again, this means we have had no wolf kills for three nights. This is terrible for the village, because we have nothing to analyze from the wolves.

The voting record also is quite dismal; yesterday, the lynching of Noggy was almost unanimous. The day before, xyzzy was killed with an overwhelming majority. Not only do we have few clues from the Night, we also have very little to work on from the Day.

I have to say, I am disappointed with my part in the lynching of Nogrod. I was so certain he was a wolf. Although he wished me to 'bag the wolves' for him, I'm not sure how useful looking at his final words will be. In his final two posts he expressed suspicion of Mac, Rikae, Lhuna, Gil, Izzy and Mith, and also me earlier in the day. This is hardly promising.

Instead, it may be worth looking at what other people said about him at the time. And the voting record. Nogrod said 'Blame yourselves toMorrow - but also look closely those who triggered this and those who were too happy to follow. Especially those who hadn't voiced that strong suspicions on me earlier but were now happy to jump for a vote - notwithstanding how reservedly they made they vote.' In this, I think he is right, and I shall be following that up."

Guy almost receded to think a little, but one last thought came to him.

"Half the day is gone and we have said dismally little. I beseech every member of our band of outlaws to say as much as possible."

[Macalaure]

Macalaure took a deep breath for the many things he was about to say:


"Firstly: Of Nogrod's suspicions on the last day:

Throughout the game, he wanted us to lynch the quiet ones, Gil and Izzy in particular, Mith to a much lesser degree.

Despite their quarrel, he wasn't really suspicious of Guy. At the end of the day he raises his suspicions a bit again, but not to a serious extent.

He makes a good point about Lhuna (too willing to take up other's points) which might be worth to be considered. I'll have to take one more look at her.

He's suspicious of Rikae and me, for saying that he might skip a kill and try to lead us astray. (In my case, this was just a thought that crossed my mind. If you look at my speeches, you will see that I never pursued this idea.)

He's suspicious of me in speech #168, and I can see where he comes from.

If the wolves forwent their kill for tactic reasons, he thinks it's Rikae and me.
However, I cannot see any such tactics anymore. Why not kill at one night and (try to) kill in the others? Makes no sense. I'm still not so eager to agree on the "clumsy wolves"-thing. Even the most clumsy wolf gets a kill right sometimes. I'd rather think that Beleg and Androg have been very apt (and, undebatably, rather lucky as well).


Secondly: Of the voting order:

1. the guy who be short (been suspicious of Nogrod almost all day. If he's a wolf, he's a gutsy one not afraid to commit)
2. Lhunardawen (there's been a lot of suspicion against Nogrod around when she made this pivotal vote. I'll have a look at her reasoning later. Taken by itself, this vote looks bad)
3. Isabellkya (this important vote gave Nogrod the clear lead and is suspicious therefore. It certainly doesn't make Izzy look better)
4. Macalaure (destroyed all hope left. It's less suspicious than Lhuna's and Izzy's vote, I think, but suspicious nonetheless)
5. Rikae (not the best reasoning behind it. Could be the vote of a wolf going with the flow. But she could easily have made a more well-reasoned vote for somebody else (esp. as a wolf, I mean), which makes her vote look better)
6. Brinniel (again, could be a wolf going with the flow)

Mithalwen's defensiveness of Nogrod could be wolvish in theory, but I get an extremely innocentish feel from it.


Thirdly: Of the things that have been said today:

Brinniel mainly states the obvious and Izzy states precisely nothing.

Gil obviously hasn't caught up on the game yet (Shasta is no werewolf and Brinniel hasn't been the most adamant to lynch him). Nevertheless he gives a vote, which raises my eyebrow, too. Brinn's reaction seems honest to me.

Now, in all the werewolf-plagued villages that my ancestors have been through, they have never encountered the offer "I'm not suspicious of you if you're not suspicious of me"!
You're not sure if Brinniel is a wolf or not. You see the need to defend yourself (of course) and you do that by voting her. Then you say you won't go after her if she doesn't go after you. That's the most horrible case of self-preservation I have ever come across."

After he ended his speech, he sat back to let Lhuna continue her's.


(crossed with the Guy)

[Lhunardawen]

"Izzy had suspected both tgwbs and Nogrod throughout the Day, and voted for Nogrod in the end. She also suspected Rikae, but it feels to me like a retaliation for the suspicion the latter also casted upon her. Definitely suspicious behaviour.

"Rikae, from being unsure of Nogrod's suspiciousness, saying that he's the Nogrod we all known, ended up voting for him because he appeared desperate ere the end and looked bad for reusing his arguments. That's quite a jump, if you ask me. Risky move for a werewolf, though, because it reeks of jumping into a bandwagon, and the old woman should have enough wisdom to avoid that. I find her a tad less suspicious than Izzy, and it's doubtful they are wolves together.

"Mac has me admiring him for this risky but honest remark, on the possibility of lynching tgwbs or Nogrod: We need a proper dead body to analyse, one which leaves something that we can really analyse! And if the wolves won't supply us with one, we might have to do it ourselves. He spoke true, and shows that he is serious in hunting down our wolves. From the start he had suspected Nogrod more than tgwbs, following their arguments to the point of practically abandoning all thought of the others. In the end he basically used subjectivity as the basis of his vote, which was for Nogrod. The effort he exerted in analysing their exchange, and his relative steadfastness now puts him in my innocent list.

"Mith makes me worry about her adamant stand that Nogrod is innocent. It's perfect because it was her against all of us, practically, and now she has all the right to say I told you so. But there are only a few people who could know for certain his innocence. One would make us trust her, but the other would make us lynch her. Another thing to consider is her amount of contribution, apart from the issue concerning tgwbs and Nogrod, and that for me tips the scale towards the suspicious side. She voted for Brinn, for reasons I do not completely understand, and the way she attacked Brinn after she cast her vote for Nogrod makes me all the more wary of her.

"Brinn stood her ground in her suspicion of Nogrod, and voted accordingly. I'm feeling rather neutral towards her.

"Mind that these are mostly based on yesterDay's votes and could change if other factors are also considered. My suspects are Mith and Izzy or Rikae.

"Now, Gil, I haven't forgotten you. Your long disappearance casts doubt on your lycanthropy, but again the killing could be done even in your absence, I believe, but I don't think that would be the case. I advise you not to be too jumpy, though, or I for one might forgo my previous assumption and contemplate on having you lynched."

Out of breath, she lay down on her straw bed again and shut her eyes, and breathed deeply.

[Brinniel]

Brinn shook her head, finding this young man's words to be rather ridiculous.

"How could you say that I would be the chief prosecutor of your lynching, Gil, when no one has even considered you a prime suspect yet? I don't know where you're getting the idea that I'm pulling this 'crusade' against you....I have never before specially targeted you as a possible lynchee.

"Yes, as one of the silent ones you have been a suspect, I won't deny that. But this mostly comes from the fact that there have been no wolf-kills and I think that it's due to clumsy wolves, and I feel pretty sure at least one of those are silent. But honestly, due to some of her posts from the past Days (which I will go over later), I thought Izzy to be the more suspicious one. And now with this sudden outburst of yours, I must reconsider this. It is even possible both of you are wolves...

"This entire argument of yours is folly, boy. Either you indeed are a wolf panicking after another Night of no kills, or you are very, very blind."

EDIT: X-ed with tgwbs, Mac, and Lhuna

[Lhunardawen]

From where she lay, her eyes still closed, Lhuna let out a silent chuckle.

"Too willing to take up others' points? I, Mac? If this is concerning my agreeing with an observation made by Brinn, of which Nogrod took note, I had already explained myself. I had overlooked, and apologised."

[the guy who be short]

Guy took up a stick and walked over to the voting record for Days 1 & 2. Underneath, he wrote the record of Day 3.

Day 1:
tgwbs: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 1)
Gil-Galad: ++Shasta (xyzzy: 1, Shasta: 1)
Lhuna: ++Macalaure (xyzzy: 1, Shasta:1, Macalaure: 1)
Rikae: ++Shasta (xyzzy: 1, Shasta: 2, Macalaure: 1)
Nogrod: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 2, Shasta: 2, Macalaure: 1)
Brinn: ++tgwbs (xyzzy: 2, Shasta: 2, Macalaure: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Macalaure: ++Shasta (xyzzy: 2, Shasta: 3, Macalaure: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Nogrod: --xyzzy (xyzzy: 1, Shasta: 3, Macalaure: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Nogrod: ++tgwbs (xyzzy: 1, Shasta: 3, Macalaure: 1, tgwbs: 2)

Day 2:
Rikae: ++Izzy (Izzy: 1)
tgwbs: ++xyzzy (Izzy: 1, xyzzy: 1)
Lhuna: ++Nogrod (Izzy: 1, xyzzy: 1, Nogrod: 1)
Rikae: --Izzy (xyzzy: 1, Nogrod: 1)
Rikae: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 2, Nogrod: 1)
Mac: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 3, Nogrod: 1)
Brinn: ++tgwbs (xyzzy: 3, Nogrod: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Nogrod: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 4, Nogrod: 1, tgwbs: 1)
Mithalwen: ++xyzzy (xyzzy: 5, Nogrod: 1, tgwbs: 1)

Day 3:
Guy: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 1)
Lhuna: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 2)
Izzy: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 3)
Mac: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 4)
Rikae: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 5)
Brinniel: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 6)
Mith: ++Brinniel (Nogrod 6, Brinniel 1)

He looked around. "I shall refer to this later. Feel free to use it yourselves, too."

[the guy who be short]

Guy spoke again. "I have to admit, I am quite worried about Mith, for several reasons.

First off, there was here huge show yesterday while Nogrod was being lynched. When first thinking about this, I thought this pointed to her innocence. However, she really did overdo it.

Mith obviously thought Noggy was gifted. I think she was hoping that, upon being lynched, this would be the case; this would point to her being his fellow gifted.

What bothers me most about yesterday is that she was present since Izzy's vote for Nogrod, the third vote, but she did not vote until the end. Why? If she was truly concerned about Nogrod being a gifted, and truly wanted to save him, why not vote early, with good reasons, and attempt to create an alternative bandwagon? It really seems contradictory that she was worried Nogrod would be lynched and end up gifted, but didn't commit herself to saving him. It seems that ultimately, she wanted him lynched, thus getting rid of what she thought was a gifted, with the added bonus of making her appear innocent and gifted toDay. I bet it really annoyed her that he wasn't gifted.

There are other things that bother me about Mith. She seemed intent on making it seem that the wolves had been defeated by gifteds on Night 3, rather than sleeping through it, despite evidence to the contrary.

Then there is her sudden jump on Brinn merely for saying that an innocent Nogrod would make Mith look bad...

There's also the way that Mith has kept up a presence, but not actualy said much. Going over the last couple of Days, I've found that she's expressed no opinions at all about Rikae, Mac or Lhuna - a third of the village, and a significant third at that.

So, I await her reasons and also some input about the people she has, perhaps conveniently, avoided mentioning at all. I will now look for other suspects."

He walked off and started looking at the voting records he had drawn earlier, mumbling to himself.

[Brinniel]

"Okay, so here are my thoughts one everyone:

"tgwbs is one I had been extremly suspicious of for sometime. But as I mentioned previously, I grow less and less suspicious as time goes on. His apologies for misjudging Nogrod seem sincere, and I still think he did give some good reasoning behind his vote yesterDay, even though he was wrong. I'm not sure guy would be so bold with this vote if he were a wolf.

"Lhuna was suspicious of Nogrod since she voted him on Day 2. Because of this, I don't think she simply voted him yesterDay to jump the bandwagon. All her posts so far have a sincere tone, and still don't find her suspicious. Still, I would not disagree that we need to keep an eye on her, because for all I know, she could be fooling us all.

"Of Mithalwen it's hard to say. I agree with Lhuna that it could go either way. But I'm more inclined to think her leaning towards innocent. After all, I think a wolfish Mith would anticipate that her defense could backfire, plus I doubt she would fail a wolf-kill three nights in a row...

"Mac remained consistent with his arguments against Nogrod and everything else throughout yesterDay. For the time being, I just don't see a good enough reason to seriously suspect him.

"Of Rikae, I'm not sure about. Looking at voting alone, she was unsure of Nogrod's guilt throughout most of the day, but in the end she jumped in and voted him anyways, which could make her suspicious. But then again, like I said with Mith, I imagine a wolf Rikae would manage to make a wolf-kill at least once out of three Nights.

"Gil-Galad is questionable. Even with his return, we have still heard little from him. His silence and recent behaviour makes me feel suspicious for reasons I have previously stated.

"And Izzy...I did not like her vote yesterDay. If any vote seems most suspicious, it is her's. After all, Nogrod said to watch out for the third voter, and I have a feeling she may have cross-posted and not seen that comment when she voted...which would make her a clumsy wolf indeed. And I don't like how little content most of her thoughts have. And has anyone noticed her first sentences of each Day she has spoken:

Day 2: "Izzy opened her eyes and sat up, upon her bed. She surveyed the sleeping inhabitants and noticed the numbers were the same. She thanked the good protectors, whoever they might be, for keeping watch through the night while they slumbered."

Day 3: "Izzy opened her eyes and rubbed them to expel the last remnants of her slumber. She headed towards the others and took a seat. She reflected on the events of yesterDay and yesterNight. She shook her head at the ruthless slaughter of the innocent outlaw Xyzzy, as well as thanked good fortune for bringing yet another kill-free evening."

Day 4: "Izzy gazed around at the sleeping group of outlaws and noticed that Gil had returned, and that Brinniel was awake. She counted the numbers, and thanked good fortune that once again everyone had escaped the night unscathed."

All of these first sentences are very similar. Now while each Night has ended in a similar way, by now she shouldn't be thanking 'good fortune,' for we all know that at this point a wolf-kill would be better than a no-kill for the sake of finding something to analyse. Something about her words seems very fake and planned to me...

"Okay, I really need to rest my eyes for now. I will be back later to put in some more thoughts."

Brinn leaned backed against the rocks and closed her eyes.

EDIT: X-ed with tgwbs

[Mithalwen]

Mithalwen spoke, "I have not been quiet from act of will rather because I have been constrained. This style of debate is hard for me. Certainly if I were a wolf I would not have missed ANY kill.. I would have found a way. ... but I am not. Yes I thought Nogrod gifted. I did not KNOW... I prefer not to explain my reasons at this time.

I am afraid having believed Nogrod gifted my readings of the discussions have been coloured by this and it must wait my return in a few hours for greater analysis. I am beginning to think that no ranger could be so blessed and this lack of kill is a cunning ploy. Bizarre as it may seem. Leads me to suspect the mathmagicians though..." Mithalwen fell silent and returned to her work.

[the guy who be short]

Guy replied to Mithalwen quickly before going off to look at others' behaviour.

"Mith,

Firstly, it is quite clear that the wolves slept through a kill on Night 3. And no Ranger has been this lucky; we have a different Ranger today, Androg, than Night 2, Beleg.

And, of course, it would not be in the wolves' interest to refrain from killing, as it would then take them longer to deplete the village's population and achieve victory."

[Macalaure]

"As of now, I don't feel anything particularly wrong about Brinniel and I would want Rikae to talk and explain her vote of yesterday before I judge her today.

I took another look at Lhuna and didn't find any solid evidence against her in her words. But there remained a strange feeling. Due to Nogrod's suspicion, I will keep her in slight suspicion myself. I'll be interested what Rikae will have to say about her, who was suspicious of Lhuna yesterday but didn't vote her.

The likeliness of having sleepy wolves make Mith, Izzy and Gil good suspects. As I said, I do not suspect Mith (see beneath). I somehow can't put Izzy into any box and Gil is even more mysterious as usual.


I thought the Guy to be on the innocent side, but his recent words about Mith have me in doubt.

As she has just said (and elsewhere), Mith's behaviour is partly due to events that lie beyond us here. If she was a wolf, wouldn't it be foolish to spend almost her whole effort on declaring Nogrod innocent/gifted? Wouldn't there have been better things to do in the little time she had? Obviously, she didn't vote earlier, let alone build a case with good reason, because she had no clear suspect and no time to build that case that Guy demands. In the end she voted Brinn - without good reason - because she happened to catch her eye in that moment, it seems to me. Yes, she has not presented us any great opinions yet, but this points neither to wolf nor to innocent, but merely to an extensive and acute need for sleep.

Guy's case looks, I'm afraid, like a case built by a wolf against his own better knowledge. My eye is on him again."

[Rikae]

Rikae had been sitting quietly for most of the day, listening to the others. Now she spoke.
"I've been uneasy about Isabellkya from the beginning, and I'm glad to see that others are finally beginning to suspect her also. Her words do feel very calculated; there is even a hint of smugness in them, and she not only says nothing in today's post, but has really done little in the past three days but defend herself and cook. Furthermore, we can't ignore the fact that she fits the profile of an inexperienced wolf.
Mithalwen's defense of innocent Nogrod could be a wolf's attempt to look innocent or gifted, but as such would be too obvious for her, I think.
Gil-Galad's extreme defensiveness is certainly strange, and I don't know what to make of it.
Macalaure tends to look innocent because went after Nogrod so determinedly yesterday, however, his wolf father was similarly single-minded and bold, as I recall, so in his case, it doesn't entirely absolve him.
Guy speaks good sense and is helpful; this in itself doesn't prove him innocent, but I simply can't imagine wolf-Guy missing a kill (or skipping one for tactical reasons, for that matter.)
Lhuna, on the other hand, I could see doing such a thing. She feels very ...crafty... lately. This thing she said grabbed my attention:

"I am quite confident the wolves are making history on this hill. Never before has any creature of Morgoth failed so greatly in his task! In this I am more fully convinced that inexperienced wolves are among us."

I have a feeling, though I can't put my finger on why, that an innocent person would word this differently. It seems like just the thing a frustrated wolf might say, thinking she was throwing us off the trail.
She also expresses suspicion of Izzy, but that doesn't mean they aren't co-conspirators, especially at this juncture. And why she would pause so long after Izzy's name, I can't fathom.

Brinniel seemed quite odd in the past, but lately her words feel sincere and genuinely intended to be helpful. Maybe she is hitting her stride as a wolf; though I think it more likely she is relieved that the curse of her ancestors seems to have been broken.

My top suspects are, quite emphatically, Isabellkya, Lhuna and Gil-Galad. I'm almost certain a wolf - or two - can be found in that trio."

EDIT: X'd with Guy & Mac

[the guy who be short]

Guy walked off outside the cave, and read once again the voting record of the past few days.

"I am quite certain," he said, "that we have at least one, and perhaps two quiet wolves. The no-kill on Night 3 shows that the wolves somehow slept through the Night, which implies quiet wolves with poor communication to me, perhaps the absent Gil, as well as Izzy and Mith.

The behaviour of Gil recently has been quite bizarre. It seems he feels under pressure, a possible sign of wolvery. Mith tried half-heartedly to divert Nogrod's lynching onto Gil yesterday, so I think if Gil is a wolf, Mith probably wont be and vice versa.

Brinn makes a couple of good points about Izzy. However, I'm not really sure Izzy's vote is suspicious simply because Nogrod said to look out for the third voter: I don't understand what is meant to be suspicious about the third vote in particular. I suspect it was just an attempt to discourage people from voting for him... What worries me more about Izzy is that, like Mith, she fails to mention many people at all.

So, among the quiet, I am most in favour of lynching Mith, then Gil, then Izzy.

Oh, and about Mith, in response to Mac: I stand by my reasoning. It would not be foolish to spend the whole time campaigning against lynching Nogrod - if he had turned out to be gifted, it would have made Mith look very good indeed. I feel that she did have time to build a case if she wished: she certainly had more than an hour. I appreciate that there may be factors outside of our community that affect her behaviour, but I still find that behaviour suspicious, in relation to the Save Nogrod Campaign, and bizarre in reference to the "Our Wolves Didn't Sleep Through The Night, Despite The Evidence" thing, which she is still continuing.

I wish I had more time to analyze the Nogrod voters. Alas, I must go for a while, and return only to vote thereafter. Good luck, Outlaws."

[Rikae]

"On second thought, I'm not so sure Guy is helpful, so much as he appears helpful. Still, while I don't agree with his conclusions about Mith, his reasoning looks sensible and honest enough, not fabricated as Mac seems to find it. I'll have to look at him more closely, though."

EDIT: X'd with Guy