Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[the phantom]

Anyway, I definitely plan to look back at the Day 1 voting, as now we can entirely assume the innocence of the runner up, Sally. And of course we know Boro was innocent as well, meaning that the Day 1 voting was indeed quite clear cut so far as what the baddies would be hoping for.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by the phantom

If it was totally up to me, I'd want the six Reps to be... let's see here... Celuien, Steve, Rune, Lommy, Legate, and Kath. But obviously that's not going to happen.

Hmmm.... Two hours to decide.

Now that you mention it I would love to see Kath as a rep. It would be interesting to see more from her.

++Kath for Representative

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Now that you mention it I would love to see Kath as a rep. It would be interesting to see more from her.

++Kath for Representative

KATH SAID SPECIFICALLY TO NOT MAKE HER A REP AS SHE WON'T BE HERE.

This is suspicious.

Just got out of the shower, so to make my vote clear-

++Nerwen

Will respond in a bit.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Well, I made a mistake then. It is unfortunate, but don't expect that I remember everything that everybody says or that I always get to read all the posts.

[the phantom]

THE VOTES:
Green-->Inzil
Foley-->Green
Kath-->Inzil (2)
Legate-->Rune
Steve-->Rune (2)
Lommy-->Nerwen
Rune-->Kath
Shasta-->Nerwen (2)

THE REPS:
Inzil
Rune
Nerwen

I would suggest not nominating anyone new unless you are quite certain everyone will show up and vote today. There are 13 of us, meaning that SIX is the MAX amount of Reps we can have, and we've already nominated five different people.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Inzil- I don't particularly like the way he led off Day 2 asking, "Why is Phantom still alive?" It sounds too much like the subtext is, "Why not kill TP? I would've killed TP. But he's alive. I'm not an Elf." And of course I still don't like his Day 1 comment I mentioned yesterday- his encouragement of people not to Rep-vote. His chief suspects were certainly Wilwa and I, and he said that he wanted Wilwa dead before Sally, but he voted Shasta for Rep (Shasta had been after Sally). I'm not sure if that's suspicious so much as it's... confusing.

You're still wrong about the not-voting vs random-voting, but it's useless to argue.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

edit: xed with Shasticle (that's a really perv nickname btw)

That was coined in the previous game, and came from his being locked in a freezer. You should have been there.

Originally Posted by the phantom

If it was totally up to me, I'd want the six Reps to be... let's see here... Celuien, Steve, Rune, Lommy, Legate, and Kath. But obviously that's not going to happen.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Now that you mention it I would love to see Kath as a rep. It would be interesting to see more from her.

[highlight++Kath for Representative/highlight]

Kath? Really? I'd be interested to see it too, but not when she explicitly said she wouldn't be around at all the latter half of toDay on this thread.

So, the ones with two votes are Nerwen and Greenie. Both have already been reps, but as a plus they're not on tp's 'want' list, so maybe pretty safe.

++Greenie for rep

because she was nominated by Foley first, and Foley's one of the ones I least suspect at this point.

x/d with Shasta, Rune, and tp.

[Inziladun]

Bah. Said they both have two votes, but I meant one at that time.

[the phantom]

THE VOTES:
Green-->Inzil
Foley-->Green
Kath-->Inzil (2)
Legate-->Rune
Steve-->Rune (2)
Lommy-->Nerwen
Rune-->Kath
Shasta-->Nerwen (2)
Inzil-->Green (2)

THE REPS:
Inzil
Rune
Nerwen
Green

LEFT TO VOTE:
Celuien
Mira
Nerwen
Phantom

[the phantom]

Well, guess what? I just missed the deadline.

[the phantom]

Well, if Kath indeed cannot be around at all to vote, I guess it wouldn't have done me any good to make it back in time for the deadline anyway, as she would've been the only person I could've made a Rep. Bleh. Whatever.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Zil, Greenie, Rune, and Nerwen are your Reps. Enjoy the power bestowed upon you by the masses.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Alas, the Curse strikes again.

Mira will probably not be posting any time soon, and since she's puking, I'm informing you that you'll be taking pity on her and not killing her toDay.

[the phantom]

REP VOTES ALL THREE DAYS:

Celuien--> Foley, (----), (----)
Foley--> Celuien, (----), Green
Green--> Nerwen, Steve, Inzil
Inzil--> Boro, Shasta, Green
Shasta--> Izzy, Nerwen, Nerwen
Nerwen--> Lommy, Shasta, (----)
Lommy--> Green, Nog, Nerwen
Steve--> Green, Legate, Rune
Rune--> Lommy, Steve, Kath
Legate--> Nerwen, Foley, Rune
Kath--> (----), (----), Inzil
Mira--> Phantom, (----), (----)
Phantom--> Celuien, Legate, (----)

MUTUAL VOTES:
Celuien & Foley (*)
Rune & Steve (*)
Green (*) & Steve
Green & Inzil (*)
Nerwen & Shasta (*)
Nerwen & Lommy (*)

We can only guess as to whether or not the Elves are concerned with direct voting ties like this. If they're looking to tie Orcs to them in case they're lynched, then the suspicious of the two votes will be the second one that links the pair (I marked the second player to vote with a star).

VOTING TRIANGLES:

Legate-->Rune-->Steve

A triangle, with Steve voting for both other members instead of one.

Lommy-->Green-->Nerwen

A triangle, with a double bond between Lommy-Nerwen.

VOTING TANGLES:

Green for Nerwen & Inzil, Inzil for Green & Shasta, Shasta for Nerwen, Nerwen for Shasta

So basically what we have there is one mutual pair (Green-Inzil) voting for another mutual pair (Nerwen-Shasta). Plus each mutual pair has a member with another mutual voter, Green-Steve and Lommy-Nerwen.

CONCLUSIONS:

Um....? Well, the obvious answer is that we have no idea what the Elves have decided to do, so who knows? But if we were to go with the simple idea that Elves want each other in power and wish to tie themselves to innocents, then you possibly have a Green-Inzil-Steve grouping trying to tie themselves to Shasta, Nerwen, Rune, and Legate?

Bleh, I'm too tired to think about this stuff. Too much to do and no sleep to fuel me. I'll come back after I get some work done.

[the phantom]

Okay, now that Sally is dead and all, it is time to go back to Day 1-

We have two choices here- assume there were NO Elves elected, or assume there was an Elf (or Elves) present in the voting. We know for a fact at this point that both of the candidates running against Lottie were innocent, and so the desires of the Elves would be quite clear on that first day (to vote or encourage a vote away from Lottie).

If the Elves were playing straight up, that would mean the following could be showing Elf colors-

Green- Voted Sally
Celuien- Voted Boro
Nerwen- Voted Sally & Boro
Shasta- Push Sally over Lottie

(And I see in my post above that Green, Nerwen, and Shasta are linked by Rep votes as well.)

I'm still not completely buying anyone who was pushing Sally over Lottie that first day. Lottie was actually talked into her early vote by me, where as Sally's came out of left field with no basis in anything, which of course caused me great alarm, as my number one fear was that Sally was the Seer and she was hiding it with silly randomness.

I mean, did no one else think that at all??!! Obviously I couldn't say anything about it at the time, but it did really really annoy me that the thought didn't occur to more. People never vote completely and totally randomly. It is always based upon something. And so if someone comes on and votes before any posts have been made, the first conclusion my mind leaps to is that the person already has information!

Now, as the day went along naturally my knee-jerk reaction cooled, and I realized that her odds of being the Seer were still not terribly high given the size of the village, but still, it was a possibility that I could not discount, and she was certainly higher on the potential list than most. I mean, how big an idiot would I be if I let a Seer who had dreamed of me die? My talk of Boro being a safe candidate that day- I really did mean it. He was one person that I was pretty well certain was not the Seer, and that's the main reason I preferred his lynch. For me Day 1 wasn't about lynching an Elf so much as it was about not lynching the Seer. You know me- always fear the worst.

Now, as Day 2 rolled along I watched Sally carefully and was able to cross her off my potential Seer list, and so I wasn't so worried about her lynch after that (though I still thought her innocent). But yesterday aside, it still doesn't take away from what happened Day 1, and I can't help but wonder if someone who pushed or actually tried to lynch Sally over Lottie wasn't in fact quite aware that Lottie was the safer choice.

Of course I realize that this theory of mine has about zero chance of being acted upon considering two of the four Rep voters are among those I am accusing.

[Nerwen]

Firstly, apologies for the non-vote. I couldn't get online in time.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Lottie was actually talked into her early vote by me, where as Sally's came out of left field with no basis in anything, which of course caused me great alarm, as my number one fear was that Sally was the Seer and she was hiding it with silly randomness.

I mean, did no one else think that at all??!!

Thought it, rejected it. Sally's not an idiot.

[Nerwen]

Not that I'm complaining about your looking at those of us who voted someone other than Lottie. Fair enough. I mean any SoE among the reps wouldn't be too pleased at having one of their own Fenrissed, obviously. I am somewhat concerned at Greenie's reaction to my analysis of Nog, too.

By the way: you still don't have "known Orc" status in my eyes, phantom. I've said why the Night-kill tends to support your innocence, but also why it doesn't prove it.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thought it, rejected it. Sally's not an idiot.

I wasn't trying to imply that she was, but rather- someone could try and take advantage of making an "idiot-move" banking on people thinking it is stupid and thus discounting it, you know? Sally being who she is, I definitely didn't think I could discount it at the time.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By the way: you still don't have "known Orc" status in my eyes, phantom. I've said why the Night-kill tends to support your innocence, but also why it doesn't prove it.

Yes yes, I'm not dead yet, and so can't be "known". Certainly. But given both the night-kill and my Day 1 abstaining from the vote, I would at the least hope I'm solidly in the lower half of suspects.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Not that I'm complaining about your looking at those of us who voted someone other than Lottie. Fair enough. I mean any SoE among the reps wouldn't be too pleased at having one of their own Fenrissed, obviously.

Yes, I'm really hoping there was an Elf voting on Day 1. I want there to be a trail. And speaking of trails, I very much hope that both Kath and Mira aren't Elves.

[the phantom]

Early morning tomorrow, so off to bed. I'll try and check in and read sometime in mid to late morning, but if there is a lot of action I may not have time to respond until lunch. I'll be around as often as I can after that.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

The problem is that as the game wears on, I seem to be getting less and less confident about who I find innocent or guilty.

This seems to be a common problem in this village..

Originally Posted by Feamoddess

Alas, the Curse strikes again.

Mira will probably not be posting any time soon, and since she's puking, I'm informing you that you'll be taking pity on her and not killing her toDay.

Seriously, what is it with this game??

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thought it, rejected it. Sally's not an idiot.

It did cross my mind, yes, but like Nerwen I rejected the idea quite soon seeing how she behaved after the vote. That brings me nicely to talk about why I suspected Sally, since that has been questioned. Her rep vote on Day 1 was odd to be sure, but what I found really suspicious and what made me vote her over Lottie on Day 1 and continue finding her elvish on Day 2 was how she posted, otherwise. Her purposeful hiding behind phantom, jumpiness, and open opportunism (such as not saying she suspected Lottie because that would be seen as suspicious) made me seriously suspect her. Obviously I was wrong, but at that time it seemed reasonable.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I am somewhat concerned at Greenie's reaction to my analysis of Nog, too.

Which part of it, exactly?

[A Little Green]

I need to get some studying done now, but I'll be back later and hopefully have enough time to analyse someone.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I will be near my computer most of the day, but I am afraid I won't have time for a lot of in depth analysis. Though I hope that I will have time to look over the posts of Nerwen, Greenie and Shasta.

And I might as well make it clear now that I do not want to vote for Phantom or Lommy.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Seriously, what is it with this game??

Like she said, we're under a curse.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

It did cross my mind, yes, but like Nerwen I rejected the idea quite soon seeing how she behaved after the vote. That brings me nicely to talk about why I suspected Sally, since that has been questioned. Her rep vote on Day 1 was odd to be sure, but what I found really suspicious and what made me vote her over Lottie on Day 1 and continue finding her elvish on Day 2 was how she posted, otherwise. Her purposeful hiding behind phantom, jumpiness, and open opportunism (such as not saying she suspected Lottie because that would be seen as suspicious) made me seriously suspect her. Obviously I was wrong, but at that time it seemed reasonable.

For my part, I thought it would be a good idea to lynch one of them, and I didn't really care which.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Which part of it, exactly?

Well, all of it– that is, you seemed rather keen to dispute a case against you that really barely existed in the first place. I mean, I thought I'd made it clear that I only mentioned the possibility of "Seer"–Nog supposedly dreaming A Little Green Elf because I didn't want to leave anything out, rather than because I thought it at all likely. But maybe it didn't look that way to you.

[Folwren]

I'm about to head to work, but I've been looking at Shasta's posts for the past ten minutes or so, and for how hard he lobbied against Sally and Lottie that first day, I'm inclined to believe that he's not an SoE. If he had been, he would have steered people's attention away from Lottie if at all possible, and he certainly did not.

So, that's my opinion on one person....

-- Foley

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

[Folwren]

Um.............this is turning out REALLY bad. All of our ordos are dying randomly and no elves are falling by the wayside.

[Inziladun]

Do the Elves have the aid of some 'divine' powers, or something?

Anyway, I'm swamped at work, but I'll do my best to look things over later before I vote. I'd like the input of my constituents if possible (not that I promise to go along with your suggestions, just so you know).

I won't be voting toDay for Mira (since she's apparently a victim of the Curse), or Foley, since she really looks the most innocent at the moment.

[Mirandir]

People I think are innocent:
Phantom
Nerwen
Shasta
Mira

People I suspect so are thus probably innocent:
Foley

People I tend to trust so are thus probably furry:
Kath
Rune
Steve

People I don't particularly have feelings on:
Greenie
Legate
Lommy
Zil

I'll elaborate more on that later, but the meeting I woke up for was cancelled so I'll be going back to bed now and hopefully not waking up again until my afternoon meeting.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

That was coined in the previous game, and came from his being locked in a freezer. You should have been there.

Seems like that. Poor Shasta!

Somehow I feel malicious since tp missed a deadline.

Originally Posted by Phantom

Lottie was actually talked into her early vote by me, where as Sally's came out of left field with no basis in anything, which of course caused me great alarm, as my number one fear was that Sally was the Seer and she was hiding it with silly randomness.

I mean, did no one else think that at all??!! Obviously I couldn't say anything about it at the time, but it did really really annoy me that the thought didn't occur to more. People never vote completely and totally randomly. It is always based upon something. And so if someone comes on and votes before any posts have been made, the first conclusion my mind leaps to is that the person already has information!

No. First off, I would never expect the seer to be so careless even if it was Sally and secondly no one else than you could have made assumptions based on your innocence because you are the only one who knows it. (This is not to say your innocence is a fact but I just can't bother to write this in a more speculative way because it's difficult to phrase and you should get my point in any case.)

And AAAAAARGH with the modfires. Since we have already lost three ordos, can't we get one wolf modfired just to be fair?!!

And there goes my last suspect, too, proven innocent.

This game is beginning to be hopeless from my part. The only positive stuff I can come up with:
- I just became quite sure Steve is a wolf - someone has to be
- our seer is still alive
- I just managed to analyse my lack of motivation in this game: not enough visible necessity to work hard and seemingly not enough clues (because of the lesser amount of votes) but given the latest modfire I think I'm getting my motivation back slowly... we just can't afford to give up. Also, thanks to tp for making an effort toDay by those vote analyses, it made me feel a bit more hopeful.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

- I just became quite sure Steve is a wolf - someone has to be

Ah, now why Steve?

[Nerwen]

And what do you think of Greenie and Legate?

[Thinlómien]

To be really helpful -

No idea why Steve. There's something troublingly smooth in his manner and choices when it comes to suspicions and votes etc.

And no idea about Greenie and Legate. Currently thinking Legate is probably innocent and very unsure about Greenie.



I think I need a good reread, or at least a good reread of the complete vote tallies. Now I'm off to read a book, do the dishes and have dinner, but I'll be back in a few hours to start doing something about my disturbing blankness of my wolf list.

Nerwen - do you have any idea about whom you're going to vote toDay yet?

[the phantom]

I'll be home and able to post in an hour or so. I'm posting now just to say-

GAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!

(responding to the modfire)

Now we have two fewer days to catch the culprits than we originally had! Which is another reason I'm against multi-lynches in the early going. We're best served to extend the game as long as possible and gain as many night-kills and votes as we can to use as evidence. Anyway... yeah... stop dying people. If you can't participate any more, just show up once a day and vote me for Rep. Even if you aren't certain of my innocence you at least would help the tally that way.

[the phantom]

Okay, so, when I add up my suspicion post here and my Rep-votes post here and my Day 1 lynch-vote post here, what do I end up with?

RATHER SUSPICIOUS ORCS:
Green
Inzil
Shasta
Nerwen

PARTLY SUSPICIOUS ORCS:
Legate
Steve

LESS SUSPICIOUS ORCS:
Lommy
Rune

NO READ ORCS:
Foley
Mira
Kath

[Folwren]

During lunch break, I read some of Day2, and most of what I read was the ongoing discussion between Nerwen and Phantom. I am not quite sure what to make of it all, but as you two are fairly constant players, I figured I may as well ask the questions that were bothering me...

Nerwen, why did you press Phantom so hard about being the seer? It seemed very important to you that he have an explenation for making his last minute seer-confesion/reveal thing on Day 1. Why so? Were you trying to decipher whether or not he really WAS the seer? Why was it so important to you? If you think it links him to an elf, then say so, please.

At first I thought your split vote on day 1 was suspcious, but after considering it for a while I think that this was an un-elvish thing to do, because if you had wanted to save Lottie, who at that point had three votes and I don't think anyone else did, you could've given both your votes to Sally or something like that. I can't remember numbers exactly.

But harping on and on about Phantom seems strange to me. Please explain.

While looking through Day1, I found something which strengthens my opinion that Inzil is not an elf:

Originally Posted by Inzil post 225

That's the way I see the Sally and Lottie votes too. I don't know whether tp is a SoE, but I flat-out disagree with him on this. And it feels likely that there's a SoE among the three of them.

I don't think an elf would draw attention to that. If anything, they'd try to draw attention away. Or...as Mirandir did, join in the fray without really drawing any guilty attention to herself. Why is she considered clear of the radar? Because in the past, Mir has acted crazily excited when she's bad? Hm...

Phantom, how is it you've missed voting so many times this game? That's insane.

In all honesty, I don't think he is guilty. I think if he had been, he would've tried to save Lottie. I know Nerwen said, "baddies have said before, "if I were a wolf, I wouldn't act in such a way" or "if I were a wolf, I would've done this."" but still....to let a fellow wolf get killed that first day? Seems risky and unloyal to me - unless there was some greater cause that she was being sacrificed for, which I don't currently see.

Quite honestly, I think we have a wolf among our quieter set of people. Good luck finding that stuff out.

So...that whole post to say:

Phantom - probably innocent
Inzil - probably innocent
Nerwen - a little questionmark, but also probably innocent.

Sorry I've got nothing better. My time is so scattered that my reading of the thread is scattered, too. It took me almost two hours to compose this post.

X-posted with Phantom

-- Foley

[Folwren]

Maybe I'll look at Kath next....after I study my science more.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, all of it– that is, you seemed rather keen to dispute a case against you that really barely existed in the first place. I mean, I thought I'd made it clear that I only mentioned the possibility of "Seer"–Nog supposedly dreaming A Little Green Elf because I didn't want to leave anything out, rather than because I thought it at all likely. But maybe it didn't look that way to you.

Ah well. I misunderstood you, then. I thought that while you didn't find it probable, you still definitely considered it a possibility - and since I didn't find it a possibility that made sense, I ventured to point that out.

I'll be here for an hour or two now before going to sleep. This obviously means that I have to vote in an hour or two.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sorry that I missed toDay, although looking at this thread (didn't have time to read it yet, but the fact that only about half a page has been posted since yesterDay evening and that there is that nice comic strip in the middle tell me enough) I don't seem to be the only one missing, or not missing much. I want to re-read stuff and then post soon enough, but first I have to check how does it look with the Tolkien reading planned on this evening (see other threads). Ah well, busy times, busy times...

[Kath]

Ahem, so uh ... hi. Apparently, I've had the deadline wrong in my head ever since this game started and well, as you can see I'm here. So while I'm not a Rep despite Rune's strange efforts I am around if anyone has questions etc.

[Folwren]

Kath

In her post 460 where she analyzes a lot of people, I think she went to good lengths to figure each person out and her summaries make sense. In 461, she voiced her conclusions. Three of her four unknowns have been proven to be innocent. One of of her leaning towards guilty has been proven innocent, and Inzil is the second one. So far, she looks fine to me...

Problem...she voted for Inzil to be rep the next day....she says he is posting well... on the otherhand, I know that, being a giftedless innocent, one's mind can easily be changed from thinking someone guilty to thinking they're innocent and vice-versa, so maybe it's not a problem.

I'm curious about if she can pinpoint her gut feeling about Rune. Kath? If you're around will you explain?

And that's all I've got on her. She seems alright to me.

Hey, look! I cross posted with Kath herself...and Legate.

[Kath]

Cross-posted with Foley there.

I'm curious about if she can pinpoint her gut feeling about Rune. Kath? If you're around will you explain?

Quite honestly I can't at the moment. I may go and find all his posts and look through them properly, see if it was just gut feeling or if there was something that triggered it.