TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[mormegil]

Alas, I have arrived too late for my message to do any good. I was sent by Lord Thingol to warn of Sauron's designs to overrun this region by the use of wolves. It seems that his goal is nearly accomplished and he has now set his eye upon us.

Since I am already here however, I will stay and risk my own life in helping to capture these foul lycans. Our objective can be accomplished by working in concert with each other and being open and examining everyone with precision and accuracy only then can we root these demons out from us.

Although I do have my preconceptions about the cur Eomer. I have lived in Doriath long enough to know his reputation there. I could turn him in for the bounty upon him, but for the sake of this village I will let him live and pray that he is at least innocent of being a werewolf.

[Cailín]

Phantom... dead...? I still refuse to believe it. I came here, hoping for safety, but it seems there is no escaping from Sauron and his horrible wolves. It is sad we did not get your message sooner, dear Morm, but as you say, we are here now and can only do our best and pray we will not face the same fate as so many villages before us.

We have one, clear advantage, though. We have all seen it happen before, and we know what it is like. We may not be as adept at picking out the wolves at a single glance, like Sir Phantom was, but we are no helpless newbies either. Therefore, let us do the obvious thing . Let’s all discuss this, question each other, debate, point out suspicious behavior and argue till the wolves are so weary they cannot even tell one loud villager from the next. They are bound to slip up in time. And if that doesn’t work, we can always force feed some suspicious folk one of my excellent love potions and see if they rush into a passionate confession.

[Anguirel]

Alas. Though I was once a famed pursuer and slayer of werewolves, I was sorely wounded in rescuing a village some time ago, and only narrowly saved from the werecurse by a passing healer; my sword will be of little use.

However, I shall put the benefit of twelve years in the saddle against Sauron's minions at your disposal.

Since there is no doubt that to dispatch this last village, Gorthaur will have sent the finest wolves in his arsenal, we are unlikely to catch one on this, the first day. The question is, should we give up hope and fall upon a volunteered innocent?

I think not-the problem being that such a lynching would leave no trail. Though we may in the rage of our loss, manipulated by wolves, rend apart one of our guardians, at least we will be able to cast cold, analytical eyes as to why we did so...who was directing us...

Wolves will rarely be bold enough to start bandwagons-though having said that, that statement may encourage them to. They will use subtle sophistry, malign influence, that appears to make the situation clearer but in fact obfuscates it. Beware of those who seem too confindent-"Well, if X is innocent, Y is certainly guilty."

We do have one Seer dream; but I would advise the Seer not to hint about it yet in any way, even if an innocent is about to be lynched. Worse things happen at sea, frankly; Seer, we need you to be undetected, to last, survive, and dream...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I don't know whether to envy those of you who have had experience fighting those horrible werewolves or to be glad that I was able to live here in peace for so long! I am sad and bewildered, but it will not help me or us all if I am overcome by emotions. I must try to collect my thoughts to be able to find a way for us to escape the worst, the complete obliteration of the village that is our home.

I have made garments for so many of you; they clothe you well, but now I cannot help but wonder what dark hearts are concealed by those warm, sturdy yet lovely materials. How am I to trust any of you? Words are like clothing - they often hide what is underneath them. I cannot judge by what anyone says, but must wait to see what your actions reveal.

Fortunately, I have time today. I finished the most necessary sewing and ironing tasks yesterday, so I have nothing pressing to do. Besides, I do not want to be alone in my home or shop after this foul deed, lest fear overcome me. For now, I take comfort in speech with you, my fellow villagers.

[Cailín]

It's a comfort to hear that so far, everyone is prepared to stand up and fight this new threat, instead of going straight into hiding and helplessly await our doom.

Anguirel has some valuable points and I think I should add we should be careful of wolves trying to steer the lynching into a singular direction early on. Better to first get a general impression and then spread the voting, so we may avoid the wolves planning anything in advance. Being able to do that is their advantage over us and as long as we can undermine any strategizing, we should be fine.

And Esty, whether it is an asset we have fought wolves before, remains still to be seen. Our wolves also likely have past experience and can consequently more or less anticipate the reactions of the village. Besides, we still never managed to actually establish a wolvish behavior pattern.

Also, I’m sad to inform you all, later this day, a very important costumer from another village will be paying me a visit. Since this particular costumer is one of those skeptic people, I can predict without a doubt our wary attitude shall be undeservedly ridiculed, but I must admit I'm loath to lose such great patronage and will therefore be forced to keep my additions to our discussion brief today. I am sure, however, you will hardly miss my input and should the situation become extremely dire or confusing, I will naturally immediately rush to the cause, despite my customer's protests.

[Firefoot]

Sensible statements from all, sensible indeed. Yet fair words may hide a foul tongue, as it's said. Who can tell whether the words are heartfelt or utterly empty, masking the beast inside?

Now, a werewolf could be anybody, but there's some less than respectable characters lurking around this village. What have Fea and lmp been up to this past night? Or Shelob, finally looking to rise above your station by gaining that foul Sauron's favor? Or perhaps the opposite, Anguirel, trying to hide behind his noble facade?

These are dark days, dark days indeed - and as long as there are these wolves around, there will no doubt be suspicion and doubt. Yet we must work together. Our enemies delight in the division of their enemies.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hovering hippos! Hi-jinx have hindered my hopes, as it were.

Now hold on just a moment, my lovelies, don't stare at me like that! It's true that I'm a newcomer to this here village and so you'll all be wary of me; only natural, I suppose. But my designs included little more than laying low in this fine country and seeking peace. Angry Elves I may have expected, but Werewolves? That puts an apple in the mustard, if you take my meaning.

Nevertheless, you may yet be glad of my arrival, O fair townsfolk! I have much experience of combat. I am at your service.

In addition to the wise comments delivered beforehand, I would also ask my new fellows to look out for those things that we have to look out for, for they are placed so as to be found by those who are looking, if you'll follow me.

One other pressing matter: Is there a saloon in this town?

[Boromir88]

Pah, phantom missed? What's this? The guy was nothing but a cocky lil airhead. Always wanting to be called, lord, or master, like he was someone of importance.

As far as my predictions, I just kind of want to take some stabs and see how close I am...

Sauce is a wolf because you just have to suspect someone like Sauce in the beginning, always, it's just the way it is.

Lhuna's a wolf, because she's not much of a healer, and I don't know why she calls herself one. I had went to her one time to find a cure for this dreaded wart that I had, all she did was cause me to spring more of them. Then I had to get my big toe amputated.

And Estelyn's a wolf, because her sewing is horrendous, only a werewolf with giant claws could do that bad of a job.

Anyway, how's everyone this morning?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Sauce is a wolf because you just have to suspect someone like Sauce in the beginning, always, it's just the way it is.

Boromir I believe that you are a bit touched in the head. There is nobody in this village named Sauce, unless you are using that as code for your friends. Somebody so cock-sure of his own ideas worries me especially when at least his first assumption is incorrect.

Now I have a method on the first day that could help us identify wolf behavior. If all innocents truly and surely pick a random person and go after them, then it will be just that random. It allows us a chance to get a wolf without influence but more than likely if one of there's is set to die they will be bailed out by a cohort, thus helping to reveal at least one or two. Mind you this is a best case scenario and more than likely we will just end up killing an innocent and get only minimal knowledge but it might be worth having a go.

[Anguirel]

I'm going to try and draw some conclusions from what I've heard so far. None of them, however, will be solid enough to vote on the strength of at this stage. I am not making any accusations and I do not aim to subliminally attach connotatations of guilt to anyone. I am just feeling for any possible source of information.

I shall approach this in terms of strategy. The other practical strategists have been Cailin, Firefoot, Eomer (sort of!), and, er, Boromir (which shows how little I have to go on...)

Cailin's first post is partly neutralised by her second (firstly asserting that our experience is a good thing, then reminding us of the experience the wolves also possess). She gives out useful general advice, which I would tend to agree with-discussion followed by a spread set of votes. Nothing suspect yet, or particularly helpful, admittedly.

Firefoot merely emphasises that we can't trust anybody. Her post is short on substance, and could possibly be interpreted as casting suspicion on a carefully selected bunch of innocents with a fellow-wolf thrown in; on the other hand it could be no more than it seems. For reference, she murmurs against Shelob, Fea, lmp, and me. Marginally more suspicious than Cailin. But probably I'm following a wrong scent and she's just stirring up a little discussion. Impetuosity isn't wolf-Firefoot's style.

Eomer...is playing an "irritate everyone in sight" game. More power to him!

Boromir is obviously just having a lark, but jocularity could hide a darker purpose. Besides, I demand that he retract his slur on the Lady Estelyn's sewing, or, injured though I am, I shall not shrink from challenging him to a duel a l'outrance...

EDIT: The messenger has entered the debate. I must say, I commend his plan. There seems to be no especial pit trap in following it-that I can see-though I doubt it will be dramatically successful either...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Slandering my sewing, Boromir?? What kind of foul strategy is that? Even were I truly a werewolf, during the day my hands would be as skilled and delicate as you see them now. Were I truly a werewolf, would I give myself away by crude craftsmanship? Nay, talk like that is foolish at best and suspicious at worst. That is not the way to pin down who is guilty.

I claim no knowledge of anyone's secret inner life. On this first day, we can only guess and choose at random. As yet, we have only words, no deeds by which to judge our fellow villagers. May the Valar guide our choice - and that hopefully without the delay with which they so often act!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Irritating people, lord Anguirel? How say you! 'Tis only my nature to talk in such a way. Though granted I've made a few enemies along the road. I'll aim to make myself a fearsome enemy of them thar wolves, tho'.

The ol' peepers have been working and they do believe they've spotted something, even this early. Anyone else? I'm not sure I want to spell it out yet.

And hail my hobbits, I do think I'll ha' to find the saloon masel'! Good day!


PS. I never knew that ol' Sir Phantom an' all, but I hear he was a rousing good chap. The village'll miss 'im, I'm sure. Rich fellow, by any chance?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Cailín

...we can always force feed some suspicious folk one of my excellent love potions and see if they rush into a passionate confession.

I'll take one now. As they say, 'eat, drink, and be merry for tomorrow someone will have been found dead' at the claws of werewolves. Well, I know how to be merry, and I'd be quite willing, Cailín, to help you be merry too.

Don't doubt that I'll be quite serious in the discussion, but we can't have discussion all day and not relieve ourselves of the stress in one way or another.

I'll have to be away doing inventory of my casks, so I'll just trust to my handy Elven Loremaster Ears (ELE) to record the discussion while I'm gone.

[Anguirel]

Forsooth, I do hope that yonder man-at-arms Eomer be not a wolf, for it will be nigh on impossible to bring myself to vote for him...

My good esquire, supposing thou art innocent, thou hast left the villagers pondering on this...

Originally Posted by Eomer

In addition to the wise comments delivered beforehand, I would also ask my new fellows to look out for those things that we have to look out for, for they are placed so as to be found by those who are looking, if you'll follow me.

while the wolves will be puzzling exactly how much they ought to fear your strong right arm...

Still, you seem a sturdy fellow, and I shall vouchsafe thy character against the denunciations brought by the Elvenking's messenger...for the present...

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Estelyn Telcontar

I am sad and bewildered, but it will not help me or us all if I am overcome by emotions. ... I finished the most necessary sewing and ironing tasks yesterday, so I have nothing pressing to do. Besides, I do not want to be alone in my home or shop after this foul deed, lest fear overcome me.

Then take comfort with me, fair clothier, and I can soothe your whelming feelings. My room is just upstairs and I've prepared it especially for your comfort and relief. And if you feel the need to discuss the horrors, I am quite willing to do that as well, just you and me.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

The ol' peepers have been working and they do believe they've spotted something, even this early. Anyone else? I'm not sure I want to spell it out yet.

I think I may see what you are speaking of and though I find you a miscreant rouge I may tend to agree with you and won't spell it out yet.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

What have Fea and lmp been up to this past night?

What Fea and I have been up to in the privacy of my bedchamber is strictly between the two of us.

Oh. I see that my words seem to imply a quite specific activity. Ahem. Well. I can assure you that I was in my bedchamber last night, though of course I did go outside to the latrine once during the night, if you must know.

And what of you, Firefoot? What were you doing last night?

[Anguirel]

You varlets! Thy cryptic maunderings are most infuriating.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It's ok, Ang. If you weren't going to vote for me anyway then it's useless trying to point you in that sweet and truthful direction.

Mormegil is a trusty servant and a far more worthy fellow than I (though I offer Thingol no regrets) and I think he is wise enough to see what has been laid out.

Look: we have a Seer in this village, or so I am told. It is imperative that he/she stays alive for as long as is necessary for our cause. It would be downright awful to lose him/her on the first day. Try not to make the lynchings too random, even here on this first Day.

A pity things are turning out as they are, what with the Wolves invading an' all. It appears that that outrageous character littlemanpoet would have batted my notoriety right into thae shadows! Ah, for peace and quiet!

[Anguirel]

The noble line of the Knights of Anguirelli number some Seers among their ancestors; and I can impart this much family lore. No post-mortem "trail" is worth a succession of dreams made safely. O farsighted one, wherever you be, do not expose yourself unduly-perhaps even at all-dropping hints too early. All too often a valiant Seer has paid the highest price far too soon for lacking subtlety...

Incidentally, if we wish to avoid lynching one of our gallant band of heroes, then I am happy to volunteer myself for the noose; if the village truly wills it, though I would rather follow Master mormegil's strategy...

[Formendacil]

Alas! 'Tis bad enough to come in from a lonely night at work (and worse having to work at what I work), but coming in to find that the village is in a bigger pile of turds and stools than my job consists of is no fun...

I won't bother the village with my suspicions simply because I don't have any. As yet, we have no way of knowing who the vile Werewolves are, short of leaving the village and handing ourselves up to Sauron...

None of us is so foolish as to want to do that, methinks. Although Sauron would be rather pleased, I suppose...

But still, I am not certain that we shouldn't lynch somebody. True, it is an awfully hard fate for anyone here in the village, and I'm no more eager to volunteer myself than the next villager. But it isn't unheard of to catch a Werewolf on the first day, now is it?

That said, I'm not going to push for a lynching. I've got a bad track record of lynching all the wrong people- why do you think I shovel man-turds for a living? And I'll say this regarding my last village- I was lucky to get out in time- and according to some storytellers, I didn't. Werewolves are exceedingly cunning creatures, and are very good at sowing fear and dissention...

My question regarding Master Mormegil's strategy is this: If there are fifteen villagers, and fifteen votes cast for fifteen victims, then is the one who was voted for first just lynched off- on the strength of ONE vote, one-FIFTEENTH of the population?

It's not a likely scenario, I'll grant, but if you're counselling us to vote as randomly as possible, it is quite possible that we'll end up with someone being executed with hardly any suspicion, and most likely innocent. I agree that's a dangerous thing to all bandwaggon together against somebody, and that the chances of catching someone are no greater, but at least with a bandwaggoning you have the weight of a truer village majority behind you...

I don't suppose it's possible for ALL of the village to not vote. Would the phantom of our departed leader hound us to the grave for that? If EVERYONE in the village participated, would it perhaps be manageable...

[mormegil]

The way the plan would work is it might be discernable for us to see whose votes might not be so random, if you take my meaning. Wolves will inevitabely save themselves if need be and it may help further down the road and the beauty of it is that we eliminate wolfish influence from the true innocents vote and leave their influence to a more macro, and easier to detect, scale. Though as most plans for order are normally shot down I'm sure this plan for order based on not having order will be shot down as well.

[Anguirel]

The plan is original, but I don't think our wolves would be rash enough to fall into its trap. However, since it has not been essayed before, and seems at the least right unlikely to backfire, I am prepared to make a trial of it. I shall allow the Valar to assist and advise my vote, rather than mere reason, relatively soon.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

The way the plan would work is it might be discernable for us to see whose votes might not be so random, if you take my meaning. Wolves will inevitabely save themselves if need be and it may help further down the road and the beauty of it is that we eliminate wolfish influence from the true innocents vote and leave their influence to a more macro, and easier to detect, scale. Though as most plans for order are normally shot down I'm sure this plan for order based on not having order will be shot down as well.

Probably, I suppose...

But let me ask another question:

Supposing all the villagers pick on the wrong people (not an impossibility, by any means), leaving the Wolves free to vote for each other and/or regular villagers, saving themselves and killing off others?

Your plan is a well-thought one, but I'm thinking that it cannot really succeed, without eventually disintegrating into a regular bandwaggoning. All it takes is two random-voters with the same suspicions voting the same way, and posting their thoughts, and you've got the makings of a bandwaggon.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Well, LMP, it seems to me that your kind offer of comfort is a bit indiscriminate, to say the least! If you spread your favours so generously, how are we to assume you a good judge of character? Aside from that, I would not risk being alone with any inhabitant of our village for awhile...

[Anguirel]

To the chase! As my grievous wound keeps me from the saddle, I tend to immerse myself in the study of lore and poetry in the darkling hours. As a result, I must say my piece quickly, acting in accordance with the messenger's untried scheme.

Hence...to avenge the insult to the Lady Estelyn, and because of a residual distrust of the Dor-Lomin folk, lacking any sense of honour as they do...

++BOROMIR88

Can this man make his living by insulting his betters, including those among the gentler sex? He is either an idle layabout or a wolf.

[the guy who be short]

Alas! Death is upon us!

Death! Death! *tugs furiously upon beard*

Now that the theatrics are comfortably over, I would like to assert that I am most definitely not a weredwarf. Whoever heard of such a ridiculous creature?

So who is a werewolf?

Well, it seems quite obvious to me... Yes, that's right. Sauron.

Other than him? Not quite sure yet.

[Anguirel]

Aye! I have our triumvirate! the guy who be short has shown the way...

Sauron, Draugluin and Carcharoth. There, I've saved the village. I must be the Seer!

I sense the presence of many other villagers...why then this silence? Am I to be left alone to test mormegil's plan? Let's get the debate continuing...

[Boromir88]

Boromir I believe that you are a bit touched in the head. There is nobody in this village named Sauce, unless you are using that as code for your friends.~mormegil

Ok, so I'm a little paranoid, but atleast I'm no fool.

You people think you're so high and mighty for defending (And perhaps saving) villages from the wolves destructive path. It's rather ridiculous if you ask me, and goes no way to clear your name at all. It may even look more suspicious, either you had a lucky escape, or you made a bargain with the wolves, and now you've come to kill us!

Sensible statements from all, sensible indeed. Yet fair words may hide a foul tongue, as it's said.~Firefoot

So, would you agree that foul words may hide a fair tongue?

As much as I would hate to admit it, despite Anguirel's vote for me, I doubt he's a wolf. Atleast, above anyone else here he's worthy of the title "sir" (ahem, unlike "Lord" phantom), however foolish and mislead of a knight he is.

I wouldn't doubt it if a wolf jumps onto Anguirel's foolish vote to watch me kick over today, but this village is more moronic than I thought and every last one of you deserve to be slaughtered and cut into tiny pieces by the wolves If I'm hanged.

Lhuna and Estelyn still remain as my suspects and since mormegil has corrected me, and he seems really to be the most brilliant one here so far, I don't really mind him. So, my last suspect is the guy who be short, who tried to be funny with the "weredwarf" comment, but it really wasn't.

[Boromir88]

On a note more specifically for Estelyn...

Slandering my sewing, Boromir?? What kind of foul strategy is that? Even were I truly a werewolf, during the day my hands would be as skilled and delicate as you see them now. Were I truly a werewolf, would I give myself away by crude craftsmanship?

The truth hurts.

On this first day, we can only guess and choose at random. As yet, we have only words, no deeds by which to judge our fellow villagers.

You say this, then thou attack me for doing that exact thing! Sounds a bit hypocritical, does it not?

Nay, talk like that is foolish at best and suspicious at worst. That is not the way to pin down who is guilty.

Though the clothes you sew are rags I never thought you as a hypocrit!

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

To the chase! As my grievous wound keeps me from the saddle, I tend to immerse myself in the study of lore and poetry in the darkling hours. As a result, I must say my piece quickly, acting in accordance with the messenger's untried scheme.

Hence...to avenge the insult to the Lady Estelyn, and because of a residual distrust of the Dor-Lomin folk, lacking any sense of honour as they do...

++BOROMIR88

Can this man make his living by insulting his betters, including those among the gentler sex? He is either an idle layabout or a wolf.

I find this rather interesting that he says he will go along with the random plan and yet he seems to not be quite as random. I could be misreading this but it seems that I am correct.

It seems a bit odd and I wanted to point it out.

[Mister Underhill]

Once, Ghân-undé-Ghân was a great head man. Now I only make the stones, watch, and listen. I do not understand the ways of you Stonehouse folk, but I do not like to think of you all eaten by wolf-men. I will stay and help you seek these beasts. Ghân-undé-Ghân, called by you Stonehouse folk "Mr. Underhill", hopes you will remember next time you are thinking of spicing up your lawn or your front hall. Watch-stones also make good gifts and are both practical and affordable.

Twelve of us. Three wolves. Who will win? I do not understand the plan of mormegil. Perhaps you can explain it in such a way that a humble stone-carver can understand. You want us all to vote to lynch a different person, or only a "random" person and then see where the votes fall?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

Twelve of us. Three wolves. Who will win? I do not understand the plan of mormegil. Perhaps you can explain it in such a way that a humble stone-carver can understand. You want us all to vote to lynch a different person, or only a "random" person and then see where the votes fall?

That seems to be his plan...

Personally, I'm not convinced it will work, but I notice that it is Anguirel who is first out of the gates to cast a vote.

There goes any plan of a mass abstaining...

Random votes, random votes...

'Tis a most difficult thing to do, to cast a vote on what is, for all the information I have, a statistic of 11/14ths innocent...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I have no inclination to talk in role-playing riddles. I've been out of town a few days as can be ascertained by a peek at our dearly departed Sir Lord Master King (jeesh, does he want God next?) Phantom's edit of the start date. T'was my frantic begging that delayed our preceedings. As I've only just finished reading the thread after getting back to campus, surely you'll understand the lateness of my response. Mind you, I'm hoping that coming clean about this won't glean spite votes against me just to get revenge for making you wait...

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

The ol' peepers have been working and they do believe they've spotted something, even this early. Anyone else? I'm not sure I want to spell it out yet.

I've glanced something, but as it's only the very first day, and I've made similar mistakes in the past, I'll see if I can learn from my rashly accusational nature. Perhaps not though... perhaps I should go with my perverse sense of humor (though less so, apparently, than LMP's ) and just accuse you here and now of wolvish undertakings.

Anyhow, here's what I've gleaned:

Everybody speaks sense. How clever of them. Here's a bit more:

We ought to assume that I'm innocent (a good assumption, based on fact) and circle-vote. Each person is assigned someone to kill (I'm not included on this list, obviously) and votes for them. That way, when the day is done, everyone but one person (moi) will be dead, and the villagers will be victorious. If you like, I can then take my happily living innocence and go avenge the phantom by challenging Sauron to single combat. After all, I'm somewhat short, and if I keep accidentally slamming my shoulder-blade in the car door, I'll be unarmed.

Or if you don't want to assume that I'm innocent, we can have the Seer step forward to proclaim his/her innocence, as well as whomever s/he dreamt about, and circular vote that way, based on them.

Or, even better, we can continue blindly. To be honest, that sounds like a load more fun.

My own opinion is that I've found either two known innocents, or two known wolves. Quite frankly, I think that we should kill one of them off just to see which idea is accurate. *grin*

Or on another note, let's off mormegil... at random, of course.

You see, I'm not crazy about his plan. If we all vote "at random" then yes, we might be able to see who doesn't vote randomly, but it will take longer to analyze than if we all go off on our own ridiculous tangents. At least then, we have something to do tomorrow, yeah?

PS: dear clothier, I've finally managed to photograph the sign that says "Esty Street."

[Encaitare]

Greetings, all. It is long since we have all assembled together... how are we all? Holding up well? It is indeed a tragedy; Lord Phantom was a good man.

I have been taking note of all your responses and ideas, and here is what I have to say thus far:

Anguirel! How very noble of you to offer your life to the village. Yet as selfless an act as it may be, it would be to little avail. We would, if we lynched you, have fourteen to choose from (and thirteen by the time the next DAY begins). Even though the odds of finding a wolf are then better, it is likely that an innocent will be lynched toDay anyway. That, unfortunately, is just how the odds run. If we vote, then we will at least have a 1 in 5 chance of getting a wolf.

With his offer in mind, I am inclined to believe that Anguirel is either an ordo with the best interests of the village in mind, or a bluffing wolf who assumed people would respond with the reasoning I gave above.

Mormegil's plan confuses me slightly. Randomly pick one of our fellows to lynch? It seems a little bit fishy, and probably would not be that effective for seeing who is a wolf and who is not. It is clear some of us have already formed opinions and theories about each other, no matter how full of holes they may appear. A truly random vote would be impossible, especially now that Anguirel has already voted.

I must away, but I shall return to this place later in the evening to read all else you have to say and to cast my vote.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Mister Underhill, Formendacil, and Fea.

[mormegil]

I'm starting to think that I will not follow my own plan but the point is that while all votes from innocents are truly random those from wolves will most likely not be and therefore easier to track. But the likelihood of the plan succeeding isn't great but it's a plan nonetheless.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

O farsighted one, wherever you be, do not expose yourself unduly-perhaps even at all-dropping hints too early. All too often a valiant Seer has paid the highest price far too soon for lacking subtlety...

Then let all innocents be as loudmouthy as can be so that the merest hintings by the farsighted one, should they occur sooner than later, go unnoticed by the evil spirited ones, so distracted they will be by the noise of the rest of us.

Incidentally, if we wish to avoid lynching one of our gallant band of heroes, then I am happy to volunteer myself for the noose; if the village truly wills it, though I would rather follow Master mormegil's strategy...

Bad idea. If we have an innocent volunteer, assuming that you are, although it could be a brash werewolvish bluff, then there is no voting trail to follow to roust out the werewolves.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Estelyn Telcontar

Well, LMP, it seems to me that your kind offer of comfort is a bit indiscriminate, to say the least! If you spread your favours so generously, how are we to assume you a good judge of character? Aside from that, I would not risk being alone with any inhabitant of our village for awhile...

Forsooth! What do you think I was getting at? I am not such a one as to take advantage of an innocent, if that is what you are. I take advantage of no-one, and my heartfelt sympathy is certainly for all and anyone, no strings attached (although I don't mind you patronising my tavern). Far be it from me to indiscrimately boondoggle women to my bed! I am most discriminating in that pursuit!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hoom, hroom, hrm. Hmm...

Hark! We villagers must be realistic and we must be brave; let us face Death head on! Some of us are going to die; we have to accept this. At least in a couple of Days time the village should be better off – if not in numbers then at least in ideas.

But I don't give too much thought to random voting. Rest assured, whomsoever gets my vote will have done something to irk me. Fair, treacherous wolves, eh? The scunners!

I will also have to vote very early. But first, I'm going to....fish? Is there a loch around here?

[littlemanpoet]

I didn't really like the plan anyway, morm, no offense. Like most of these Day One plans, they tend to distract attention from trying to rout out the werewolves, they don't get enough support, and therefore they fail. Let's wait a few days by which time plans can be more helpful.

Fea, bad girl. I may have to dock your wages for that. The nerve of trying to impersonate someone from the far distant future. How anachronistic! Forsooth! And your plan sucks too. I think I ought to take you into my bedchamber and give you a proper spanking. Now, wouldn't that be fun?