Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[SamwiseGamgee]

In the Lover's scenario... yes, in principle, they could. (Cailin)

Ok, but would they also then urge for the death of the second?

[Caranlondien]

DAY ONE

Post #18
Asks that Louds talk as much as usual and Quiets post at the very least once per day.
Responds to Lhuna, who requested that we not spread our votes too thin, by asking how thin is too thin?
Responds to Eomer, who had said something about not lynching Lhuna, by asking if he has a reason not to.

#52
Says, "The werewolves are understandably being very cautious today."
Says that Gurthang (who had suggested TGWBS and Valier were the Lovers) is being over-eager, but that is nothing out of the ordinary.
Points out that Valier accused "the unemployed" rather randomly (but we were all being random that day, so I don't think it's so strange).
Takes note of Samwise's accusation of Cailin, based on her early and random vote for Lalaith. Says this isn't much evidence against Cailin.
Says that Lhuna's suggestion that we not spread the votes too thin is "not as helpful as it seems".
Brings up Eomer's (brief) defense of Lhuna.
Lists those who have given substantive posts already:
Lalaith #4
Spawn #7, 17, 30
Cailin #9
Celuien #12
Kath #16
Samwise #48
Caran #49
Eonwe #50
Ang #51
But, we know there was at least one wolf in there.

Post #67
Responds to Anguirel, who had written:

Ah. LMP, my axe had forgotten about you...

I'm tempted to accuse you at once, but auld lang syne works better as a last minute swing than as the foundation for a denunciation.

Still, stone-cutter, I'm not a-liking your arbitrating tone of voice. ..

Replies with in-character jest. Of course, Anguirel was killed by the werewolves the first night; I can't remember if anyone brought this up in Days past, but this might also have pointed back to LMP. I'm more inclined to attribute it to his accusation against Kath, though.

Post #68
Responds to Eomer's plan, which involved voting for LMP. Says "If you feel you must. 'Twould be a shame if it backfired..."

Post #87
Lists the vote tally so far, and says he is disconcerted that more votes have not already been cast.

Post #91
Suggests that perhaps the werewolves are waiting to vote later. Says the werewolves are hiding well. Votes for Eomer, saying that

Knowing his status may be about the most useful thing that can be garnered out of Day One.

DAY TWO

Post #206
Defends vote for Eomer based on Eomer's defense of Lhuna and his cryptic vote, which LMP argued could be interpreted in various ways.
His defense of his vote is rather long, but not really suspicious-looking, as he was asked for a defense. He points some suspicion towards Lhuna, saying possibly she and Eomer are the Lovers.

Post #219
Points out that the Ordo-Lover probably knows the identities of the wolves.

Post #221
Responds to Caranlondien's statement that "LMP is looking suspicious[/B] for what I called his "attack" on Lhuna and Eomer. He points out that he was asked for an explanation of his vote (which I hadn't noticed). Once again, nothing really suspicious.
Says that Eomer, Spawn, and tar-ancalime are above his suspicion for the day, due to they have been concise, well-reasoned, and suspecting the same people he suspects. 2/3 of those people are now known innocents.

Post #224
Quotes The Mod God's rules concerning the Lovers to show that the wolf can, indeed, tell the ordo-lover who the wolves are.

Post #228
Responds to Samwise's displeasure at his thought about the Lovers.

Post #270
Raises point:

One of the best werewolf strategies is to say as much that is true as you can, so that the few lies you must tell slip by. However, some basically honest people can't help themselves, and when they play werewolf, they confess more than they mean to.

Points this out about Lhuna. Also points out that Lalaith has been "polling the village."
Brings up Cailin's suggestion that we lynch another guy. Honestly, I had forgotten that [B]Cailin[B] brought up this plan before TGWBS even did. She was more subtle about it, so there wasn't as strong a reaction. LMP, howev er, asks:

But what if you're a werewolf, Cailin? And what if your fellow werewolves are all female? Just a what-if. Did you not see the wisdom in going after the werewolves in order to get rid of the Lovers? Or are you trying to distract the villagers' attention from this most sensible villager strategy? And if so, why?

Says Lhuna, Cailin, and Lalaith seem to be looking out for each other. Says he may vote for one of them, or for Eonwe or Samwise.

Post #272
Says he's more suspicious of Lhuna and less suspicious of Eonwe.

Post #273
Strongly accuses Lhuna.

Post #274
Seems sure of Lhuna's guilt, and votes for her.

Post #277
Says with five voters to go, all hope is not yet lost for toDay. (Hopes we will lynch Lhuna).

DAY THREE

Post #316
Criticizes Farael's argument as a "trumped up story" (Which we later found to be true). Scolds the villagers for voting based on what annoys us.

Post #317
Thinks Farael might be "a desperate lover, doing all he can to protect his wolvish love." (Implying Lhuna to be the wolf in the relationship...)
Suggests we double-lynch Lhuna and Farael.

Post #320
Says TGWBS's plan (actually just a formalization of Cailin's plan) has flaws.

Post #416
Asks "What did the dead innocent get right?" Looks at both lynched innocents and those killed by werewolves.

EDIT: Forgot to label it as "LMP"

[Caranlondien]

Sorry, I have to go and I can't finish right now. I'll be back soon!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

In response to Lommy: I don't get what you don't get about #48. If you clarify I'll gladly clarify.

I don't understand why there is a bigger chance to kill two innocents in Day 1 than in any other Day.

I read your post, but it didn't affect my opinions in any way, neither positive nor negative.

Ok, but would they also then urge for the death of the second?

That's exactly the point. You weren't the first one to suggest it, though you said you'll support it and urged other people to support it and then voted against it. Doesn't exonerate you.

[Cailín]

I have been going over Caranlondien's post and can find little substantive against her except for the mere facts, voting records...

Nothing truly incriminating, though.

There is someone out here who is a remarkably skilled liar. And I don't like it.

Ok, but would they also then urge for the death of the second?

Clearly, they would. Otherwise they'd look suspicious. This is no formal accusation, Samwise, merely pointing out that by now I'd expect anything from the wolves.

Caran, I see you correctly brought up my original plan for lynching males so as to identify the Lovers. However, at that time I was still a little... caught up in my own setting for this game. As you probably know, I more or less invented the Lovers as they were played here and was planning on modding a game involving them myself. I already figured out for myself I'd use two male wolves and two female wolves... and somehow in my mind this developed into the assumption that all Lover-games would necessarily need two male and two female wolves. Completely silly of course, but I hope that explains my switching positions here just a little.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien, concerning LMP

Post #317
Thinks Farael might be "a desperate lover, doing all he can to protect his wolvish love." (Implying Lhuna to be the wolf in the relationship...)
Suggests we double-lynch Lhuna and Farael.

That's really interesting... how did he guess? This - I think - might point to his wolvishness, though the matter is not as simple as it seems...

[Caranlondien]

Another cancelled Lumberjack Class...

Back to work on my LMP analysis.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Response to Lommy #604: it wasn't a mathematically backed-up theory, it was simply based on the assumption that day one votes tend to be somewhat random and not necessarily based on good reasoning, so day one is the least wise day to double lynch. I guess I'm paying the price now for not being precise enough back then.

I agree with Cailin that we have a very talented liar in our midst and I think we must all be very careful.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

Response to Lommy #604: it wasn't a mathematically backed-up theory, it was simply based on the assumption that day one votes tend to be somewhat random and not necessarily based on good reasoning, so day one is the least wise day to double lynch. I guess I'm paying the price now for not being precise enough back then.

Now I got your point. I agree you should express yourself more clearly, Mr Cash.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I' about to go out for the next six hours or so. Please don't view my absence as suspicious. I will be back with analysis and theories aplenty!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

I' about to go out for the next six hours or so. Please don't view my absence as suspicious. I will be back with analysis and theories aplenty!

Ok, but I don't promise not to vote you during your absence!

[Thinlómien]

People in order of suspiciousness:

Suspicious ones:
Samwise Gamgee - see my analysis.
Lalaith - constantly suspected but tends to slip under the radar. I have a bad gut-feeling about her.
littlemanpoet - he knows things and has a suspicious voting record
Naria - scarily silent, doesn't contribute much when he posts
Formendacil - a clever wolf

Almost neutral ones:
Valier - she is suspicious - but after all that's her playing style.
Cailín - usually very reasonable but sometimes her behaviour makes me uneasy (fg. random accusations).
Caralondien - clever but has a suspicious voting record.

Innocents?:
Gurthang - reliable, see the double-lynch of Lhuna and Kath.
tar-ancalime - reasonable and has an unwolvish air.

Innocents for sure:
Thinlómien - unless Nilp lied to me about my role.

[Caranlondien]

Okay, I was on Day Three, post #416...

Post #416, continued
Says perhaps werewolves took advantage of Eonwe's situation on Day Two (he had trouble getting to a computer), and took advantage of that to lynch him.
Summarizes what the dead innocent said that we still aren't sure of:
Garin thinks Cailín is innocent
Anguirel defends Cailín against Samwise; LMP points suspicion to Glirdan, since Anguirel voted for him.
Makes another list, which you can go back and read if you want; It's too much to try to summarize his summaries!

DAY FOUR

Post #417
Analyzes Spawn's posts for clues.

Post #418
Says Eomer, TGWBS, and Farael have all sown confusion. We now know that none of these people were wolves, although Farael was a Lover.
Says that Kath is worthy of "having an eye kept on her", but right now all the noise about her is a distraction from the more obvious candidate, Lhuna. Says TGBWS's suggestion that Spawn did NOT dream of Lhuna is "garbage".

Post #419
Rejects TGWBS's plan.

Post #423
Corrects himself about Lhuna's Day One vote.

Post #424
Says perhaps Lhuna's response to TGWBS's plan ("it makes me think you are the sole male wolf") is close to the truth - perhaps there are 3 females and 1 male wolf. Suggests we double-lynch TGWBS with Lhuna instead of Kath. Trying to shift suspicion away from Kath? Possibly...

Post #426
Responds to me saying I would support a TGWBS lynching.

Post #429
Realizes he can't rely on Lhuna to help lynch TGWBS, and so votes for Lhuna.
Explains his suspicions of Eomer and TGWBS. Mild accusation against Formendacil for defending Lhuna and accusing Kath. Continues to think all the talk of Kath is a distraction.

I think tar-ancalime, Caranlondien, Thinlomien, Samwise, & Farael are probably innocent. I think that Gurthang & Cailín are probably not werewolves either. I'm not sure about Valier, Lalaith, Glirdan, Kath, Naria, & Celuien. I'm really suspicious of Formendacil, Eomer, & Guy. And I think Lhunardawen is so furry it must hurt

DAY FOUR

Post #479
Agrees with Lalaith's suspicions of TGWBS. Calls Cailin "one of the more suspicious based on voting records." Responds to Lalaith (who said she was most suspicious of Formendacil, TGWBS, and LMP) by saying that a healthy analysis of all three should point her in the right direction.

Post #481
Agrees with Cailin that we shouldn't put any stock in what Lhuna said at the end of Day Three. Says he is suspicious of TGWBS. Asks Lalaith to post more to allay suspicions of her.

Post #482
Agrees with tar-a that we should look at Glirdan.

Post #485
Thinks Farael may have let something slip in his desperation.

Post #522
Posts chart of votes. Concludes TGWBS is a werewolf, and makes conjectures about others' innocence based on TGWBS's assumed guilt.

Post #532
Responds to a point raised in my analysis of Farael, and says maybe TGWBS isn't a wolf. Thinks more, then says maybe he is a wolf.

Post #533
Agrees with TGWBS that double-lynches favor the innocents.

Post #534
Correction / joke

Post #550
Defends tar-a's post as not seeming contradictory to him. Agrees that Lhuna voters are not automatically innocent.

Post #551
Continues to think TGWBS is guilty, and votes for him. Makes a "just for the record" post of who he thinks is guilty / not guilty.

DAY FIVE

Post #574
Now thinks Lhuna voters are more likely to be guilty.

Post #591
Analyzes everyone based on several factors; conclude Samwise, Caranlondien, and LMP look the most suspicious (but exempts himself since he "knows he's innocent").
Points out that perhaps double lynches should not continue, since we no longer have a large number-advantage.

Conclusion:
I keep asking myself why LMP is still alive. A lot of us have been inclined to trust him. This is bordering on dangerous territory, but he is definitely clever enough to fool us all through an implied masquerade. I'm just not sure about him, and I have to think.

I'll be back in a bit

[Formendacil]

Good Morning, good village...

It's nice to wake up and find oneself still alive!

Okay, reading over the Day's discussion, it seems that we have two main topics on our minds. The first, of course, is Why Did the Wolves Kill Celuien? The second is, Is SamwiseGamgee Guilty?

To address the first: I have no idea.

Thinking on the issue, I am in agreement with those who think that Celuien must have exhibited some Seer-ish qualities. At this point in the game, I don't think the Wolves can afford to leave the Seer alive.

That said, however, I'm a hedgehog if I can see anything in Celuien that looked Seerish. Now, I obviously can't see it as the Werewolves do, but from where I'm sitting, nothing about her looks particularly suspicious. Most of Celuien's suspicions weren't expressed strongly, and they tended to wander a little, I thought.

But what reason does that leave for the Werewolves to go after Celuien? You'd think, that if they couldn't get the Seer, they'd take down one of the more prominent- more dangerous- villagers. LMP definitely comes to mind.

So, the question for me is: did the Werewolves, having no idea who the Seer was, opt to throw the village into mass confusion by killing someone who was otherwise pointless to kill?

I am left rather confused by this whole matter, and shall set it aside then, and move on to SamwiseGamgee, the second matter.

To be honest, it feels as if this whole anti-SamwiseGamgee movement came out of nowhere. He's been on my "seems innocent" list since Day 1, and on a lot of other people's lists as well. And, looking back, I can't really say that he looks particularly guilty. He was, as much-noted, a member of the anti-Lhuna campaign that saw Lhuna lynched. Now this, in and of itself, does not strike me as particularly guilty- several people voted Lhuna. On the other hand, it is a strike against him.

On the theory that Lhuna's Lover-ness was NOT deduced by the Werewolves until the course of that day, is it possible that Samwise was setting himself up the day before (when he also came out against Lhuna) to look good if Lhuna got lynched?

I'm still unsure as to where to place Samwise in my mind: Guilty or Not? The trust of the village in him over the last few days is a hard habit to break. I mean, it's one thing for me to think him relatively innocent- most of the village has been in agreement.

On the other hand, the evidence does seem to be pointing in his general direction, and from what little I know of him from elsewhere (such as the Warg Society), he definitely comes across as intelligent enough to pull the wool over the village eyes.

Still not sure... but I'll be back later...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

To be honest, it feels as if this whole anti-SamwiseGamgee movement came out of nowhere.

That's usually the case with villagers who tend slip under the radar that become suspected.

I know my suspicions of Samwise come mainly from the things I found in my analysis. A strange idea came to my mind. If I had analysed anyone else, would I suspect him/her rather than Samwise? For wolvishness can be seen in anything, if it's looked for. Anyway, he remains at the top of my suspicions' list.

I would like to add that I don't suspect him - or anyone else - strongly. The whole village is playing an innocent -looking game and I have to suspect someone.

I agree the person who said we're having a few good liars in the village. Or if not liars, then good hiders(sp?).

[Thinlómien]

Hmph, I have to go and I won't be able to get back.

++SamwiseGamgee

I hope I'm not mistaken.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Caran, I see you correctly brought up my original plan for lynching males so as to identify the Lovers. However, at that time I was still a little... caught up in my own setting for this game. As you probably know, I more or less invented the Lovers as they were played here and was planning on modding a game involving them myself. I already figured out for myself I'd use two male wolves and two female wolves... and somehow in my mind this developed into the assumption that all Lover-games would necessarily need two male and two female wolves. Completely silly of course, but I hope that explains my switching positions here just a little.

Yes, this does explain it.

In any case, I'm not really that suspicious of Cailín right now. There certainly isn't anyone I've entirely ruled out as a possible werewolf, but, she and Valier are both on my Least-Suspected list, the latter because she really seems sincere.

Formendacil said that all this suspicion of Samwise seemed to come out of nowhere; However, I agree with Thinlómien:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

That's usually the case with villagers who tend slip under the radar that become suspected.

I don't think that our overlooking someone for the first few Days means we should feel obligated to continue to overlook them.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Formendacil said that all this suspicion of Samwise seemed to come out of nowhere; However, I agree with Thinlómien:

I don't think that our overlooking someone for the first few Days means we should feel obligated to continue to overlook them.

Oh, I agree...

I'm merely pointing out the fact that he HAS been overlooked- and either the fact that he was overlooked or the fact that he is now being looked at probably points to a Werewolvish influence.

If the first fact, the one that was being overlooked to begin with, is the Wolvish fact, then we know clearly where to lay the blame- at the feet of SamwiseGamgee.

If the second fact, the once that he is now being looked at, is the Wolvish fact, then we must ask ourselves who the Wolf is that is instigating this whole possibly wild goose chase.

Of these two possibilities, I'm of the opinion that the first one seems more likely- and I would not be surprised indeed if there was a Wolf hiding in SamwiseGamgee. Nevertheless, if only because he has been so UN-suspicious over the past few days, it behooves us to ask WHY he is no longer unsuspicious. Have we begun to see through his disguise? Or are we being coerced into thinking we are?

I think the first more likely- but I do not discount the second.

[Lalaith]

It was Cailin this morning who first began to talk about Samwise, I think, and then Thinlomien followed up with her analysis of him.
Not saying that's suspicious, in itself. But that's my impression of how the Samwise thing began.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Thinlomien

The whole village is playing an innocent -looking game and I have to suspect someone.

I completely agree with you on this point! I have found this game and the players in it hard to judge. I have been fairly quiet and not throwing random and strange theories out there. I normally see weird connections and plans forming around me. I usually get a feeling about someone and say 8 times out of 10 I tend to be correct at the end. I see analysis as confusing, I swear my brain does not work that way. I think the things I see about others are usually arbitrary or soft in reasoning. But this game........wow it's hard to tell.

I think I will read over posts from Lalaith and samwise's posts and see what I can get out of them. I will likely vote for one of these two.

[Lalaith]

Er....Mithalwen isn't playing in this game, Valier....

[Cailín]

First time experience for me: my computer crashed while I was writing an extended post. Good thing, perhaps. It was all nonsensical anyway.

I am still waiting for the Big Yellow Schoolbus to hit me.

Innocent(-looking)

Valier
Tar-ancalime
Gurthang
Cailín

Don't Know / Not Overly Suspicious

Formendacil
Lalaith
Thinlómien
Naria

Feel Slightly Uneasy About (mainly due to presumed intelligence)

Caranlondien
SamwiseGamgee

Feel Genuinely Worried About

Elempi

---

It basically comes down to this. Analysis is making my head hurt right now -my intellect seems to be failing the village- and I am inclined to vote instinctively toDay. I have a bad feeling about littlemanpoet (I always have bad feelings about him, though. Even when I was a wolf myself in XII I thought him guilty). Unless something eventful happens or I find evidence against mystifying Naria, I shall most likely vote for him.

Am rather sleepy now, so expect me back in about 8 hours from now.

[Lalaith]

I think we are all (I mean the innocents) feeling befuddled today, and I think voting is going to be scattered all over the place. I don't know who to vote for either, I've got a couple of hunches but that's really all they are, just hunches, no evidence.

And it's the scattering that worries me. The innocents are blundering, the wolves know what they are doing and they are focused. They'll be able to push through the lynch they want.

[Lalaith]

I'm going to bed now. I'll be back to vote in the morning.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Right. Wasn't away six hours after all, but now that I'm back I want to voice something: Lommy has me thinking. Now, she didn't raise the issue of my being a wolf, but she was the one who ran with it. Now I'm not overlooking Cailin here, but I genuinely think her innocent. Lommy however, wasn't brave enough to accuse me first off, but she was willing to really get laid into me once someone else had. I know I'm innocent, and I know that if Lommy were the seer and had dreamed of me she'd know that as well. If she is the seer and hasn't dreamed of me then it'll hurt the whole village if I'm lynched, found to be my innocent self and she went after me like she did.

So, knowing how well the seer has played thus far and coupling that with my innocence I can't help but think that Lommy is acting somewhat wolfishly. I haven't had a very thorough look back through all she's said, so can't comment too strongly. However, with an early vote for me when a lot of folks seem to be viewing me with some suspicion I can't help but think that maybe she's trying to start a ball rolling which will get another innocent out of her way without her having to get her fangs dirty.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Cailin, I noticed you added presumed intelligence. Dead right. Very flattering, though, that some think me intelligent.

Just a few questions: Lalaith, what was your comment about Mith about? Missed that one.

Also, I am fine with people looking into me. If they do so I think the truth will out and I'll be found (and when all's said and done proven) innocent. However, let's be sure that we don't focus solely on me. There is, quite probably, a wolf flying below the radar, and that's what worries me. Now that doesn't necessarily mean they haven't been suspected yet, but it does mean that as this game goes on the less you say the more likely you are to come under fire.

However, my number one suspect at the moment is the fairly vocal Lommy. Analysis can be, as Valier pointed out, head-numbing. However, I'll follow up on my gut instinct and do some. If anyone else wishes to do so also feel free.

[Gurthang]

Part 4 will be coming soon. I just got it done, but I want to proof it first. It's pretty long, so I apologize for that much of it.

I'm with Samwise on this one. I've not been suspicious of him before, and I'm really surprised with how the village has taken off with the thought of lynching him. I haven't finished my complete analysis yet, just the research part, so I won't know exactly until I finish that.

I can see that Formendacil is pretty much staying out of it. Might be the right thing to do, as I don't know.

One thing I do find slightly odd is that Samwise seems a little overly protective of his own health. Which, to the contrary, brings up a good point towards Caranlondien in that she was questioned and decided to continue doing analysis rather than worrying about getting lynched. A wolf will be more worried about survival.

[Gurthang]

Analysis by Parts

First, I feel that I should point out that one of part of my analysis (Part 1 actually) was my gut instinct. However much you do or do not trust me, I doubt that anyone but me should be relying on my gut. So, I won't be offended if you pretty much just ignore that part when making your own conclusions.

Now, on with my analysis.

Part 4: Individual Voting:

Obviously, an innocent person can vote in a way that looks suspicious. It's not plausible that only the wolves would vote 'suspiciously' because the innocents don't really know for sure what they are doing( me included ). That said, certain voting will still look suspicious, whether the person is innocent or not. So, this is how suspicious a vote looks, and I'll have to do it for each person seperately, so it will be long. I will be putting my own opinions in italics, so they can be easily seen as my own thoughts.

Caranlondien - Day 1: Votes for Anguirel. Gives decent reasoning. (0) Day 2: Votes for Lhuna. Still wants double lynch. (0) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. Widens gap between Kath and Lhuna. In light of the planned double-lynch, I really don't like this vote. (-1) Day 4: No vote.

tar-ancalime - Day 1: Votes for Farael. Hit the lover, but that doesn't really tell us much for Day 1. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eomer. Quotes reasons. Despite voting for an innocent, her extensive reasoning makes it less suspicious. (+1) Day 3: Votes for Kath. Narrows gap between Lhuna and Kath. Too easy for a wolf to vote for Lhuna, it wouldn't make sense for one to vote for Kath. (+1) Day 4: Votes for Glirdan. Can't say yea or nea about it. I probably would have done the same. (0)

Cailín - Day 1: Votes "randomly" for Lalaith. Can't know anything for sure about this one. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eonwe. Only current suspect with a vote already. Doesn't seem suspicious. (0) Day 3: No vote. This allows double lynch. (+1) Day 4: No vote.

Naria - Day 1: Votes for TGWBS. Her reasoning was strange, but typical Day 1 vote. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eonwe. "...after I jump on this bandwagon!!" (-1) Day 3: Votes for Kath. Ties Kath and Lhuna with 3 voters left. Very unlikely for a wolf. (+1) Day 4: No vote.

Valier - Day 1: Votes for Glirdan. Reasoning was occupation mostly, but Day 1 is random. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eonwe. Votes for leader for being 'most annoying'. (-1) Day 3: Votes for Kath. Narrows gap that ended in double-lynch. Wouldn't make sense for a wolf to vote this way, one Lhuna vote pretty much stops the double and doesn't look suspicious. (+1) Day 4: No vote.

Lalaith - Day 1: Votes for TGWBS. "Following his advice." Seems mildly suspicious, but not enough for a negative. (0) Day 2: Votes for Eonwe. Because of Eonwe's random vote on Day 2. Could be a safe vote for a wolf, but just as easily could be enough reason for an innocent. (0) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. This widened the gap between Kath and Lhuna (which was bad), so could be a wolf trying to save Kath. (-1) Day 4: Votes for Glirdan. Ties Glirdan and Guy for doulbe-lynch. Can't tell anything from this, there were still many voters left. (0)

Thinlómien - Day 1: Votes for Glirdan. Seems most guilty to her. (0) Day 2: Votes for Naria. Votes for an unknown in a six way 2 unknown-2 wolf-2 innocent tie. Drawn between Lhuna and Naria, saw Naria as more suspect; I can't blame her. (0) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. First vote for Lhuna. Could be setting up lover-wolf to look innocent. (0) Day 4: Votes for TGWBS. Can't really say anything, as I also was mildly suspicious of him. (0)

Formendacil - Day 1: Votes for TGWBS. Ties Garin and Guy. He put up a tie between two innocents, but with all the support for double lynchings... (0) Day 2: Votes for Kath. Ensured Eonwe's death. It seems far to much like a wolf voting for a fellow when someone else already has the noose around their neck. (-1) Day 3: Votes for Kath. Ties Lhuna-wolf with Kath-wolf. Extremely unlikely that a wolf would bring his true fellow up beside a Lover. (+1) Day 4: Votes for Naria. Votes for an unknown rather than bandwagoning, but could be wolf not breaking the tie. (0)

littlemanpoet - Day 1: Votes for Eomer. Seems retaliatory; although I, on Day 1, was also sure there was something going on between these two. Eomer was acting slightly odd, so no negative. (0) Day 2: Votes for Lhuna. Gives reasons through several posts. Extensive reasons and quotes seem unlikely, as it would be wolf building a case against wolf. (+1) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. After this, a double lynch would have been much more difficult. One more Lhuna vote might have doomed it. (-1) Day 4: Votes for TGWBS. Don't know anything. (0)

Gurthang - Day 1: Votes for LMP. I felt that there was something between Eomer and LMP and sided with Eomer. (0) Day 2: No Vote. Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. Creats tie and double-lynch. (+1) Day 4: No Vote.

SamwiseGamgee - Day 1: Votes for Garin. Breaks Garin-Guy tie. I doubt a wolf would be worried enough to break a tie between two innocents. (+1) Day 2: Votes for Lhuna. Brings Lhuna into a tie for the lead. Unlikely for a wolf to bring up a fellow, even if he suspected her of Loverness. (+1) Day 3: Votes for Lhuna. Widens gap between wolf and Lover-wolf. In light of the planned double-lynch, I really don't like this. (-1) Day 4: Votes for Glirdan. Can't tell anything. (0)

Extra +'s and -'s:

+1 for being first to vote for a wolf. A wolf would be less likely to push another wolf forward for lynch:
Thinlómien
Formendacil

+1 for voting for a wolf twice:
Caranlondien
Formendacil
LMP
Samwise

-1 for voting for an innocent thrice:
Lalaith

So, totals(top + extra):

Caranlondien -> -1 + +1 = 0
tar-ancalime -> +2 + 0 = +2
Cailín -> +1 + 0 = +1
Naria -> 0 + 0 = 0
Valier -> 0 + 0 = 0
Lalaith -> -1 + -1 = -2
Thinlómien -> 0 + +1 = +1
Formendacil -> 0 + +2 = +2
littlemanpoet -> 0 + +1 = +1
Gurthang -> +1 + 0 = +1
SamwiseGamgee -> +1 + +1 = +2

So, lastly, the inevitable list for this little voting test (by that I mean Part 4):

Looks innocent:
tar-ancalime
Formendacil
SamwiseGamgee

Looks suspicious:
Lalaith
Caranlondien
Naria
Valier


I'll return later and finally decide what I conclude from all that.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I can see that Formendacil is pretty much staying out of it. Might be the right thing to do, as I don't know.

Alas, but I can stay out of it for no longer. I'm off to work pretty quick, and I might not be back before the deadline- if I'm back at all.

So I must vote.

Well, Samwise looks suspicious, right enough- there's no denying that. And, in the absence of other candidates (Naria's still around, I'll grant, but she wasn't TOO suspicious yesterday, and I'm too hesitant to do it today...), I guess I'm stuck with him.

++ SamwiseGamgee, with several misgivings.

[littlemanpoet]

Question: Who has voted for the most innocents and Lhuna?

tar-ancalime: d1 Farael, d2 Eomer, d3 Kath, d4 Glirdan - 2 times.

Caranlondien: d1 Anguirel, d2 Lhuna, d3 Lhuna, d4 no vote - 3 times.

Thinlómien: d1 Glirdan, d2 Naria, d3 Lhuna, d4 Guy - 3 times at least, perhaps 4.

Samwise: d1 Garin, d2 Lhuna, d3 Lhuna, d4 Glirdan - 4 times.

Valier: d1 Glirdan, d2 Eonwe, d3 Kath, d4 no vote - 2 times.

Lalaith: d1 Guy, d2 Eonwe, d3 Lhuna, d4 Glirdan - 3 times.

Naria: d1 Guy, d2 Eonwe, d3 Kath, d4 no vote - 2 times.

Formy: d1 Guy, d2 Kath, d3 Kath, d4 Naria - 1 time, perhaps 2.

Gurthang: d1 LMP, d2 no vote, d3 Lhuna, d4 no vote - 2 times, but the d3 vote was legit.

Cailín: d1 Lalaith, d2 Eonwe, d3 no vote, d4 no vote - 1 time, perhaps 2.

LMP: d1 Eomer, d2 Lhuna, d3 Lhuna, d4 Guy - 4 times.

Well, that doesn't change a whole lot except to bring Thinlómien a little higher on my suspicion list, and drop Caranlondien a bit. That leaves Samwise and me as those most deserving of votes for lynching. I leave this village to be the judge. My single-minded, single-hearted effort speaks for itself, and there is much that I've added to this discussion over the days, as you all know. I've tried to be as helpful as I could, given the limits upon my intelligence and value to this village. Do what you must.
****************

Originally Posted by Formy

To be honest, it feels as if this whole anti-SamwiseGamgee movement came out of nowhere.

It should not have in my humble opinion, and I am to blame as much as anyone. But Guy may he r.i.p., is more culpable than most by attracting undue attention to himself for his Nilpy antics. Quite a distraction. Said distraction finally, mercifully, out of the way, fresh objectivity results in the current suspicions. That's the way this game goes. Samwise has been on my "probably innocent" list all game long too. But then it suddenly dawned on me that the werewolves, most likely well aware that Lhuna was the lover-werewolf, wanted her lynched. Thus, those who regularly voted for her are likely candidates for werewolf. The three who fit that catetory are Samwise, Caranlondien, and me. I've allowed myself to be played. That's why I think, despite their nay-saying to the contrary, that these two are most likely our werewolves.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

If I had analysed anyone else, would I suspect him/her rather than Samwise?

That is a malady that I fall into over and over again, which is why I've been trying (and often failing) to stick to as objective a set of criteria as I can muster.

I think that we would do well to be as objective as possible toDay. All of our analysis and hunchy suspicion is proving to send us all over the board. Meanwhile, there is evidence in the votes. The later in the game, the more that evidence aids the village. It's really quite deplorable that the site was down for hours yesterDay, and many of us didn't get a chance to vote. That doesn't help. Nevertheless, I would like to urge calmness. Don't panic. The werewolves may be focused, but they're also desperate. Do the math and figure it out. That said, I vote now for one of the three against whom the evidence is most telling:

++ Samwise

My "final post" list has not changed since yesterDay, except for the removal of Guy, Glirdan, & Celuien from them.

There's just one thing I wish to add: though their voting records are evidence to the contrary, I can't get over this sick feeling that Valier & Naria are quietly laughing in their sleeves, watching us flounder about, looking at people for this, that, and the next reason, but no zeroing in on them. *sigh*

[littlemanpoet]

I feel somewhat relieved to be voting the same as Formy, who has had an uncanny knack more often than not this game for getting the vote right. I see also that Gurthang has done a better job of what I was trying to do with the vote analysis. I hope mine helps a little bit.

[tar-ancalime]

I'm starting to get verrrry worried about lmp.

Over and over again he tells us that a wolf will strive to say as many true things as possible so that the lies will slip through.

Again and again he brings up the Day 3 voting, reminding us that Lhuna voters are the most obvious suspects from that data pool. In an aw-shucks manner he notes his own presence in that cohort; is he hoping that his honest-Abe act of continually reminding us of that situation will make him look better? (the lmp of my mind: "But I didn't mean me! Would I really have kept bringing it up if I was a wolf?")

And frankly, his constant massaging of my and others' egos is starting to smack of flattery. I have to admit it's worked so far, but really, he's starting to lay it on a little thick, don't you think? Talking about my (and Caranlondien's, and spawn's) "intellectual acuity," proclaiming me innocent at least once a day (this would be one of the "true things" a wolf should say, btw).

And, finally, there's this:

b. Samwise, Caranlondien, and LMP should be considered to be the most suspicious.

at the end of an analysis based on: voting, the suspicions of the dead innocents (looking for Seerish stuff, I think), and people who've given the "least help." These three have all voted for Lhuna twice; Samwise also shows up (wrongly, I think) on lmp's "least helpful list;" cutting him loose and ending the flattery, perhaps? Samwise and Caranlondien are also among the few who've been talked about today, with Samwise looking like an early favorite for lynching.

The wolf-poet is bowing to expediency again, as he did when he voted to get rid of Lhuna, and as he has done throughout the game when he has flattered those whom he wished to influence, or whom he saw as threatening. Note that not too long ago, both Caranlondien and Samwise showed up on these "too smart to be guilty" lists.

Also, this list of three suspects (which conveniently includes the hot topics of the day) once again includes himself. It's the same shtick he's been pulling for days with his constant reminders that he voted for Lhuna. (the lmp of my mind again: "Aw, c'mon guys! I'm just being scrupulously honest, here! I didn't really mean me!")

I'm becoming more and more tempted to call his bluff. However, my hand is stayed by the knowledge that I was one of Glirdan's most vocal critics yesterday, and look where that got us! Pride goeth before a fall, and I was very proud of myself for voting Farael on Day 1, challenging Lhuna on the non-tiebreak, and voting for Kath. So I'll wait a little (call it a cooling-off period) before casting my vote.

EDIT: Cross-posted with a whole lotta people; I don't have time to consider all of these posts right now.

[Caranlondien]

Note: I typed this up before Gurthang posted his voting analysis, and before Formendacil voted, but the site was acting all weird and I had to reload it...

Formendacil made a good response to my last comment. But speaking of flying under the radar... he is certainly doing so.

For the moment though, my suspicions are focused on Samwise and LMP. I have to say I'm more suspicious of LMP than of Samwise. I'm afraid I may have a case of, well, whatever disease you want to call it when you get suspicious of whomever you analyze. Thinlomien made a good point about that.

[Caranlondien]

Tar-a, thanks for putting into words everything I was thinking but couldn't quite put my finger on about LMP. Like you, I'm feeling a little doubtful (as I was a strong critic of TGWBS yesterday), but LMP seems very subtley manipulative.

[tar-ancalime]

All right. I know I said I would wait. But I've looked at my magical hourglass, and it tells me I've got to get out of here and over to the spell factory before the forewitch fires me!

++littlemanpoet

[Caranlondien]

I'm going to go eat dinner, and I'll vote when I get back. My vote will probably go for LMP.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Well, I've been back through the posts and Lommy, I've got to say that whilst my suspicions of you have not disappeared, they have been eclipsed by my suspicions of LMP. I don't like the way that (and I know these have been said before) a. he flatters; b. he includes himself in suspect lists each day and then magically just becomes unsuspicious in those same lists 6hrs later; and c. the way that there are those who have 'fallen out of favour' and are now suddenly coming under increasing suspicion, almost one by one.

And Form's comment of my suspicion coming out of nowhere he seems overly keen to explain away, moreso than others who have dealt with the issue. (That's how it seems to me, anyway.)

[Gurthang]

Okay, so my conclusions.

Appeared on the suspicious lists:

Caranlondien - 1, 2, 3, 4
Naria - 1, 4
Valier - 1, 3, 4
LMP - 1, 2
Thinlomien - 2
Lalaith - 2, 4
SamwiseGamgee - 2, 3
Gurthang - 2
tar-ancalime - 3

Appeared on the innocent lists:

Cailín - 1, 2
Formendacil - 1, 2, 3, 4
SamwiseGamgee - 1, 4
tar-ancalime - 2, 4
Valier - 2
Naria - 2, 3
Lalaith - 3
LMP - 3

So, in order from most suspicious to least:

1. Caranlondien (4,0)
2. Valier (3, 1)
3. LMP (2,1)
3. Lalaith (2,1)
5. Naria (2,2)
5. Samwise (2,2)
7. Gurthang (1,0)
7. Thinlomien (1,0)
9. tar-ancalime (1,2)
10. Cailin (0,2)
11. Formendacil (0,4)

[Gurthang]

Voting:

SamwiseGamgee - 3 (Thin, Formendacil, LMP)
littlemanpoet - 1 (tar-a)

Left to vote:

Gurthang
Cailin
Caran
Naria
Valier
Lalaith
Samwise

Two things:

I would be okay with a double lynch again toDay. I haven't been very suspicious of Samwise, but he has three votes already, and I won't be surprised by more. If we do do a double, I'd like to see at least one of my top 4: Caran, Valier, Lalaith, LMP. I'll be sticking around for awhile, so I'll vote later.

Thing two. Tomorrow, should I be dead, I want the Seer to remember something. If you know three innocents besides yourself, then come forward and declare yourself and the innocents. It would then be 4 knowns vs. either 5 or 4 unknowns (two wolves). At that point it becomes a game of numbers and we can just double lynch our way to victory.

[Caranlondien]

Okay, I'm going to go over toDay's posts one more time, but unless some amazing revelation occurs to me, I'm voting for LMP, as I said earlier.