Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[Boromir88]

I mus' say I too am baffeld by the wulves selecshun of Miss Wilwarin. Seems rather odd to pick sumone who was growin' in suspishun and I'm totally baffeld by the choice.

Just sum response to the early talkin' so far:

With all due respect to our esteemed retired tutor and harbourmaster, but a double-lynching is never anything but a terrible idea – especially so early on – as all it does is double the chances of lynching innocents, which…guess what?...we did.

I aint no real big favor of double-lynchin' but this to me makes mormegil seem more innocen' than before. I jus' dun think a wulf wuld put 'imself in that situation, cus it will just be far too risky. Mormegil's actions to me seemed like 'e believed eider Rune or Gurthang was a wulf, and in order to catch the wulf 'e felt the need of lynchin' 'em both. It jus' so 'appened that neider of 'em were wulves.

The other is Lhuna. She’s been able to keep a pretty low profile so far, for all that she’s been about and appearing to be helpful, without ever really lending a hand.

I'm not sure about Formendacil yet, 'e still seems fairly innocen', but I agree wi' yur suspishun on Lhuna. She 'as barely gone talked 'bout yet, and I shuld think wulves would want to keep sumone who can quietly stay unner the radar, so to say.

So, Lhuna, migh' as well come out wi' it and tell us of any lycanthropay yu are 'part of?

This admittedly haphazard method, then, has me looking at Mormegil and The Saucepan Man right now - two people who seem very reasonable and very helpful, but who would make dangerous wolves.

I explained why I think mormegil's vote yesturday seems more innocent then guilty. It just appears to me that 'e thought one of 'em wus a wulf and wanted to make sure 'e got 'em. It so 'appens against 'is luck that neider were wulves. But, if one of 'em wus, we'd be praisin' mormegil right now, or 'least I would. If 'e was a wulf, that move jus' seems too risky fur a wulf, to put 'imself under the microscope so to say. 'Owever, 'e could very well be doin' jus' that, tryin' to pull off a bluff.

I must begin to look as the Panman. Really, we 'ave givin' 'im the benefit of the doubt so far, but whut 'as 'e done to be productive fur us? Also, I'm kindof wonderin' why 'e 'asnt been whacked by the wulves yet? The choice of Wilwarin seems odd, and I jus' begin to wander why Panman 'asnt been whacked yet? Also, all 'is talk aint been very 'elpful to us so far.

We 'ave 10 peeple left in the village. Two 'ave to be wulves. So this gives us a 20 purcen' chance of catchin' one today. Since I know I aint no wulf, I'm excludin' my name givin' me 9 peeple to choose frum.

Aiwendil
Fordim
Formendacil
Holby
Kath
Lhuna
Mormegil
Panman
Wayne

I still think Aiwendil and Fordim as innocents so far today. I'm less sure of Formendacil, but I 'ave nuttin really strong to go on to say 'es a wulf. I aint that suspishus of mormegil yet eider, 'is vote yesturday just seems risky fur a wulf.

So, back to process of 'limination, this leaves 5 peeple, and accordin' to me math, one of 'em is logically a wulf.

Holby
Kath
Lhuna
Panman
Wayne

Whether I think 'es a wulf or not, if Wayne aint gonna speak up, I will follow Fordim's vote. The wulves arent gonna get rid of 'em. Though I would 'ope 'em to go after Wayne, like they mystically went after Wilwarin, but I doub' it. If Wayne aint gonna be a 'elp the longer we let 'im stay around the 'arder it will be, we will eider 'ave to suck up and keep 'em, or lynch 'em.

Holby, 'er non-vote yesturday looks strangely odd. Unless I missed sum explanation, its never a good idear not to vote, even if you aint confident in a decision.

Kath 'as been a mysterty to me so far, she like Lhuna I fell 'as gone under the radar. Doesn't say a 'ole lot, which doesn't constitute wolfishness, but 'asnt really been mentioned yet, and that gets me worried if shes a wulf.

Lhuna, same reasonin' as Kath, we seem to 'ave forgotten she was apart of the village, and we cant let wulves just sneak 'round unnoticed.

I explained my suspishuns on Panman above, and will be looking 'ore at 'im today. Though, right now not sure if it constitutes 'is lynchin'.

So, Kath, Lhuna, Wayne, spek up or foreva 'old yur peace.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

With all due respect to our esteemed retired tutor and harbourmaster, but a double-lynching is never anything but a terrible idea ...

I can see as ye ain't a gambler, me Operatic Oyster Opening friend. I'm with Aiwendil on this one. 'Ad Rune turned out to be a Wolf and Guthang the Cobbler, as a nummer 'ere suspected, we'd all be throwin' a party right now and there's be no mutterin' 'bout double lynchings bein' a bad thing. On the basis of me suspicions at that time, I thought Master Morm made a good call, and I ain't a goin' back on that now.

Does that mean I reckon Mormegil to be innocent? No it don't. On the one hand, it would take a bold Wolf to make such a suspicious (as it turned out) move. But on't other, I don't doubt it's sommet a Wolfish Morm might think as 'e could pull off knowin' that the likes of me might regard it as too "obviously suspicious" for a Wolf.

As for the remainin' votes, I don't reckon that they are as useful as yesterday's, bein' as so many voted for the two that were lynched.

Voted for either Rune or Gurthang: SpM, Fordim, B88, Formendacil, Aiwendil, Mormegil

Voted for another: Lhunadarwen, Kath

Did not vote: Holbytlass, Wayne

Now 'ere be a nummer of things to muse over like. Did a Wolf vote for either Rune or Gurthang? Did a Wolf vote for another? Did a Wolf not vote?

The odds, and plain common sense, lead me to think that at least one Wolf voted for either Gurthang or Wayne. Which troubles me as they all be people who I 'ad previously reckoned likely to be innocent. Me current thinkin' is that one Wolf voted for either Rune or Gurthang and the other either voted for another or did not vote. It would be quite risky for a Wolf not to vote, but I wouldn't put anythin' past that young Wayne. Seems to me as 'e ain't a great one for strategies and the like, but just does whatever seems right to 'im at the time.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

But I'm also interested in any constructive criticism anyone might have - what other variables could be considered?

Well, yer system be fine as far as it goes, Master Aiwendil. But I reckon that it be of little use until we 'ave a few day's votin' under our belts. That's plain to me from the fact that it rates me so highly. See, I reckon our lynchin' of Spawn was a bit of a lucky strike. Most times, in such a situation, the village would 'ave lynched two innocents and no Wolves at this point. The fact we bagged a Wolf on the first day rather skews the system early on, d'you see, by favourin' those as voted for 'er too highly. Over time, though, it will even out more.

Not sayin' it's no use. But I think we need a few more days afore we start thinkin' of usin' it to guide our votes.

As for other variables, you need to look at when people voted and the state of the votes at that point. You take some account of this at yer point 1, but there are other factoes - whether people created or broke ties, whether they might 'ave been votin' to save a fellow Wolf and the like. You should also bear in mind that Wolves may well quite willin' to sacrifice one of their nummer (particularly early on) to gain credibility like. And you need to take account of the Cobbler, though Gawd knows 'ow you might do that.

Finally, seems to me yer system accords to much weight to votes alone. Votin' is one of the most useful ways of spottin' a Wolf, I accept. But there are other ways, based on people's behaviour and what they say durin' the day. Though, again, that's awful difficult to take account of, bein' as Wolves will act in different ways dependin' on the circumstances and are quite capable of behavin' in a manner as makes 'em look pure as the driven snow.

Which brings me to me final point fer now. The deaths of Rune and particularly Gurthang, and the fact that Wilwa turned out to be innocent, show the dangers of concentratin' on those as are generally reckoned to be actin' suspiciously. While that was the basis for me stickin' up for Wilwa yesterday, I still made a mistake by focussin' too much on Gurthang an' Rune. They were actin' suspiciously to my mind, an' others seemed to see it the same way. So they 'ad to be guilty, or at least one of them did, right? Wrong. Mayhaps our experience should tell us that those most likely to be Wolves are those as are conspicuously avoidin' doin' anythin' which might make them seem suspicious.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The choice of Wilwarin seems odd, and I jus' begin to wander why Panman 'asnt been whacked yet?

I won't deny that I 'ad wondered the same misself. I fully expected not to wake up this morning. But then the same might be said of a nummer 'ere - such as Master Hedgethistle, Formendacil, Aiwendil, mormegil (although 'is central role in the double lynching might explain why 'es been kept alive) and, of course, yerself Farmer Crabbe.

Mayhaps I 'ave not been "whacked" yet on account of the fact that, as you kindly point out, I've got just about everythin' hopelessly wrong so far. I accept that I 'ave been mistaken on many counts so far (though not on Wilwa), but I can assure you that I'm tryin' me best to fathom this 'ere conundrum out.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Holby, 'er non-vote yesturday looks strangely odd. Unless I missed sum explanation, its never a good idear not to vote, even if you aint confident in a decision.

You need to take a look at the town notice board (aka the admin thread).

I agree, though, that both Kath and Lhuna 'ave been somewhat flyin' under the radar so far. Then again, Kath is the only one left out of the three as I suspected most yesterday and, given 'ow wrong I was on t'other two, I'm beginning to doubt the thoughts that led me to suspect 'er too.

[WaynetheGoblin]

My sister was killed by wolves. I already have a vote. I have been metsioned in almost every post so far. This sucks. A vote from Fordim makes him one of my top suspects.
1.Lhuna
2.Fordim
3.Morm
4.Saucepanman
5.Kath
6.Boromir
7.Holby
8.Formen
9.Aiwendil
I dont have time to explain my list. I am very tired. You will see me tommorow.Good-bye.

[mormegil]

I'm actually beginning to suspect that either Boromir, Fordim or Saucie is a wolf. The reason being is that rarely have I been this confused and these three could be subtle enough to pull one over on me very easily, though I admit everybody could pull one over on me these three could do it most easily.

Out of the three I'm beginning to suspect Saucie the most. I'm low on time so I will explain in brief. Perhaps Jack's implication of Saucie's innocence was put forward so that Sauce would not suspect him at all of being the seer and trying to get on his good side while he had some more dreams hoping to find more wolves. Now his clues put her over the top and Saucie the meticulous, spotted that and killed him that night.

He voted Fordim the first day. He didn't do anything to save Spawn, that's okay, remember Spawn was going to be abscent during many of our discussions and proffered herself as the sacrificial wolf.

Notice that while he says he has no clear idea of guilt he continually stirs the pot and is very influential in who the town votes for.

Finally this wolf pack has been very bold and confusing. Saucie would know to kill Wilwa would be to confuse the village and he would be able to plant new seeds of confusion in our mind. I'm not sure I'll vote for him but I'm looking closely at him as well as Lhuna, Formendacil and Kath. The other two (Boro and Fordim) I will keep a close eye on but probably not vote that way today.

[Holbytlass]

Sorry I missed the voting. It's my busiest time of year what with all the orders for holiday hams, I was rushing so I could come vote and I 'bout sliced off me thumb. So I go looking for the doc but he's never around ! Had to make do with a fish-hook and catgut string.

Well, I would've voted Gurthang seeing as I was suspicious of him. Sorry to have put Morm in that position, but I don't blame him for his decision. Most of us were suspicious of either of the two and basically Morm saved us a day of haggling over the one who would have survived had Morm broken the tie. It's a shame they was both innocent, but the numbers are dwindling down and it will get tougher for these wolves to hide. Wilwarin, that's an odd choice. Hope to not sound callous but at least we still have the rest of our gifted.

Originally Posted by [B

Aiwendil[/B]: 1. A wolf is more likely to have voted for a known wolf at a time when it did not seem likely that known wolf would be lynched. So for such votes, let's only subtract 1 instead of 2.

A wolf would vote for a fellow wolf at a point when their death is inevidable, but you'll have to do the math on that.
Which, by the way, would fit Aiwendil's vote record, on DAY1. He was the second to last to vote, and he broke the tie putting Dancing Spawn ahead. On the surface, that looks good, but if we look at it from a point of her being the sacrificial wolf, he did it at a time when she just needed that last nudge to put her on the chop. And Aiwendel is so careful, and I'm so suspicious of him.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

Not revenge so much as payback, m’lad. So far, Formy’s been getting something of a free pass and the only one as has been pointing a finger at him is now lynched…and a proven innocent, I might add removing any tint of wolfishness from his accusations.

Well, I would agree with you that the "proven innocent" thing, as nice as it is, is possibly a little unfounded, thought true. As for the no one pointing a finger well... you appear to be doing just that, if somewhat cautiously.

I've got a question for our Mod, or possibly for one of our more experienced members, which I couldn't find the answer to in Post #1. It regards the Cobbler. Does the Cobbler appear as an Innocent to the Seer? My understanding was that he/she did... Furthermore, when he dies, do we find out right away that he/she was the Cobbler, or do we have to wait until Game End?

I've never played with a Cobbler before, so I'm curious...

My main thought is that if the Cobbler is kept secret until Game End, then we may have killed him (I still say that Gurthang acted Cobblerish, whether he was or not).

A secondary thought that occurred to me in the writing of this, was that if the Seer dreams of Cobblers as Innocents, then some assumptions about this village may be wrong.

I checked the first post of the thread for clarification, but didn't find any.

[Lhunardawen]

I'm very certain we have wise wolves against us. I cannot think of any reason why they would choose to kill Lady wilwa when she was under much suspicion. Either they were hoping that she's gifted or just wanted to add another dead ordinary to the list, I have no idea. But mark my words: I'm very sure that one of those we deem very helpful to the village is a treacherous lycan, no offense.

I really find it weird that the only person who ever voted for Lady wilwa was Mister Gurthang. Thus there's no one the wolves could possibly frame directly for her murder. The strategy behind this kill is really beyond me, but then again I'm not a wolf so it makes sense that I don't comprehend.

Originally Posted by Mister Fordim

The other is Lhuna. She’s been able to keep a pretty low profile so far, for all that she’s been about and appearing to be helpful, without ever really lending a hand. Her vote for Wayne was a nice safe one in that it wouldn’t raise any eyebrows. Then she votes for Kath – pretty much the same as with Wayne. A nice vote to make for a wolf: you’re seen to be out there helping things along, but you’re voting for ‘easy’ targets, and what’s more there’s little chance they’ll be killed so there’s going to be no risk of people coming round after saying, “she voted for an innocent!”

Mister pearl diver, sir, I cannot really be blamed for keeping a low profile...perhaps you know about those things called time zones, sir? Now you can all say that I'm hiding behind my weird time zone; say what you will, but I tell you I'm innocent.

As for those 'easy targets' you speak of, can I help it if I really find them the most troubling? Why should I vote for a person just because everyone else is voting for him/her, when I can't see much reason to give him/her my vote?

Another nice move, if you’re a wolf: casting suspicion on another person without making outright accusations, and using that to cover her real message: “I didn’t know as Jack was the Seer – no sir, I didn’t! I sure can’t be a wolf! No way!”

Excellently done, sir. You've uncovered my real message. Because I didn't know Jack was the Seer, and I most certainly am not a wolf.

Now that you've mentioned that, my suspicions of Mister mormegil are starting to solidify. I shall explain it later.

[Lhunardawen]

The Case Against Mister mormegil

(Now please don't make fun of my reasoning, sirs and ladies. I've been thinking, and this is what my young mind came up with.)

1. He voted for Gurthang when everyone else who have read the words of Aiwendil voted for dancing spawn. It could be that he was counting on us thinking it is impossible for a werewolf to go against the flow. He had given a very convincing explanation behind his vote to give it more credibility (and that was easy to do on the first Day), but he could just have really been trying to protect dancing spawn. And it's possible that through his reasoning he could sway others to vote for Gurthang to save dancing spawn. But to be safe, he added that he is not proclaiming her innocent, but he's not overly concerned with her.

But dancing spawn was lynched, and it probably didn't matter much to the werewolves. If I may say so, they could have chosen to sacrifice her, as mormegil had repeatedly pointed out:

However with those that voted for Spawn is should be remembered as SpM pointed out they could be a wolf. I say this because as we know Spawn was going to have problems participating in our daily meetings and council so perhaps she was a sacrifice to help establish innocence.

and again much later

...remember Spawn was going to be abscent during many of our discussions and proffered herself as the sacrificial wolf.

Now that's scary. How did he become certain that she "proffered herself as the sacrificial wolf"?

But funnily, the next Day Gurthang came under heavy fire and was lynched. But this time, he could have voted for Rune instead to spread his votes a little and to not make it seem that he was all over innocent Gurthang. Rune was a safe vote after all, because he was also under heavy suspicion.

2. He uncovered the possible hints Jack included in his posts pertaining to his Seership. Now it could just have been that he was the first to be around to point them out, but he could also have been "assigned" during the Nightly werewolf meeting to unveil the hints that they've found confirming Jack's Seership. And we wouldn't question that, knowing he is wise and all. What's more, we will credit it to him as helpfulness, and that places him off our radar.

3. He was the one who gave the first solid suspicion on wilwa and backed them up with sensible proofs. Again, credit to his helpfulness.

4. He offered a plan that he admitted was likely to be dismissed. What's even more interesting is that the plan will very possibly not harm him at all, because it targets the suspicious-sounding, and he definitely isn't one of them. Again again, credit to his helpfulness - even if it wasn't put into action.

5. He was responsible for the double lynching of Rune and Gurthang. Like all else, this works both ways for him, but it is definitely suspicious. Especially since as I recall it was wilwa he was really suspecting...

Now that I think of it, maybe all my points above work both ways for him. But still I leave it to you all to decide whether I'm a delusional child or one who thinks beyond her age.

I shall try to be back later toDay, but there's possibility that I can't. I still don't want to vote so I will try my best to be back. Thank you, sirs and ladies.

[The Saucepan Man]

The choice of Wilwa last night was certainly mighty strange. I can see naught in her posts which might have suggested that she was gifted. And so I must concur with those who reckon that she was chosen mainly with a view to confusin’ us.

Equally puzzlin’ is why the Wolves have not targeted one of those as is generally reckoned to be an asset to the village, but who (up to now) ‘ave not come under serious suspicion. By this, I really mean misself, Formendacil, Fordim Hedgethistle, Aiwendil, Boromir 88 and mormegil. It occurs to me that the Wolves may reckon as they ‘ave a good chance of steerin’ the village against one or more of ‘em, and so bring about their lynching. Some of the names mentioned (like misself and Fordim) are loud ‘uns, and loud villagers can ofttimes provide fertile material for building a case. Others ‘ave mostly got things wrong so far (like misself and mormegil), again providing grounds for attack.

I ‘ave already seen signs to day of attempts to build a case against me an’ that makes me suspicious of those who be doin’ it. But I am wary of the dangers of suspectin’ people just ‘cos they bring up points against me. So I shall wait and see what else comes up before makin’ any firm accusations today.

[Kath]

Double lynchings eh, looks like they're more trouble than they're worth! Rune and Gurthang both innocents. Now I'll admit to having thought Gurthang was likely the Cobbler, but Rune? I never did understand the suspicion on him. And wilwa dead too, so that's three innocents in a very short space of time. The only good thing is that none of them were Gifted, the bad thing is that there is now a higher chance the wolves will get a Gifted toNight.

So, now that I have some time, lets have a look at those who are still alive.
Aiwendil – early first day poster with an immediate answer to an acusation of being non-commital. Has some good ideas on wolf strategy (because he knows them?) but then some rather contradictory ones on Seer strategy. He tries then to explain, I wonder whether he just couldn't articulate it in the way he wanted. Is then accused by spawn of wanting to make it too easy for the wolves. With the knowledge that spawn was a wolf this could be an attempt for the two to distance themselves. Lhuna then agrees with his ideas, but since I find her suspicious I'm not sure that she's not trying to ally herself with someone seemingly innocent. spawn votes for him and again I wonder why - because of his Seer talk is her reason. Perhaps she was trying to make it look like she wanted to keep the Seer hidden, or she wanted to take suspicion of Aiwendil. Saucepan Man agrees with him and sees him as an innocent. Rune was also suspicious of Aiwendil, but since we now know him to be an ordinary innocent we can't take them as any kind of proof. mormegil backtracks on his early suspicion of Aiwendil though claims he only suspected him in the first place to get some talking going on. As so far my view of Aiwendil is that he is innocent this makes me suspicious of morm. Gurthang is also suspicious of him, but again he had no real basis or knowledge. We hear from the man himself who refutes suggestions that he wants all to follow one plan, he just suspects those who thought his proposal was a trick - fair enough, if his proposal was innocent, suspicious if not. Boro finds no reason to suspect him at all. So Day 1 he seems completely innocent to me.

Complains at the Seer for leaving clues that would get her killed and then suspects anyone who voted for Formendacil. Suspects wilwa (who we know now to be innocent) and Gurthang (same again). Fordim sees him as an innocent. Suspects Saucepan Man for similar reasons to my own. I hadn't seen the clues to Jack's Seership and those who did may have used it for their own gain - but that's later. Has a lot of support from Gurthang, so is allied with a known innocent. Holby is suspicious of him due to sparring with spawn, saying he bandwagons and leads people away from his own vote - she makes some sense actually. Formendacil thinks Aiwendil could be a wolf due to his voting. Lhuna feels he is innocent as she did on Day 1 - so at least she's consistent. Is defended by Sauce though he does not believe Aiwendil to be wholly trustworthy, though he does not suspect him. Boro again counts Aiwendil as an innocent - I think due to the voting. Holby puts him as one of her top suspects. Aiwendil then strongly suspects wilwa (a now known innocent) for her wolf-like vote, though that is only going with the general consensus of the village at the time. Argues against morm's plan (thankfully) and then says he suspects Rune, Gurthang and wilwa - oops! Fordim is relatively sure Aiwendil is not a wolf. Gurthang now sees him as innocent, which is a reversal from the Day before. Rune sees him as an innocent. Aiwendil then votes for Rune, and suspects both Gurthang and wilwa in the same post, again, looking at what we know now - oops! Day 2 I again can't see him as suspicious.

ToDay can't work out why the wolves went after wilwa, and seems genuinely not to know. Then starts on an insane numerical list which puts him as the least suspicious - certainly odd. Boro again sees him as an innocent. Again has support from Sauce, which makes me think he's more likely to be innocent because the support is so absolute. Is very low on Wayne's list though, as usual, we have no reasoning for this. Holby remains very suspicious of him for his voting yesterday, with him being the last to vote for spawn. Lhuna seems to feel that he should be trusted since it was his posting that brought about suspicion of spawn.

That's everything from the last few Days. From all that I can't see that Aiwendil should be suspected, but I began this post with the idea in my head that he was innocent. I would appreciate it if someone who is looking at him as a wolf (i.e. Holby) would read through all that and see if there's anything suspicious looking.

So, Kath, Lhuna, Wayne, spek up or foreva 'old yur peace.

Enough chatter for you now? I'll do this again for someone later but just before I head off I'm really looking hard at Sauce right now. He picked up on all Jack's clues, if before the kill then it's likely he is a wolf, if after then maybe not so much. But I don't trust him.

[Boromir88]

I won't deny that I 'ad wondered the same misself. I fully expected not to wake up this morning. But then the same might be said of a nummer 'ere - such as Master Hedgethistle, Formendacil, Aiwendil, mormegil (although 'is central role in the double lynching might explain why 'es been kept alive) and, of course, yerself Farmer Crabbe.~Sauce

Tis true, I admi' I wus surprised I wusnt wacked yet. We've 'ad three killin's, I wus expectin' to be wacked or if not me, Aiwendil on Night 2. But seein' as the wulves found the Seer they obviously went with the more dangerous threat, cus all I got is me guts. But, I'm baffled by this recent kill and why one of the names you mention above (includin' misself) wusnt wacked last night.

You need to take a look at the town notice board (aka the admin thread).

Thanks fur explainin' I thought I missed sum'in.

Lhuna's argumen' against morm makes sense. It seems like morm knows a lot about the wulves strategy (the sacrifice of Spawn and the pointin' us to the words of the seer), yet despite all this knowledge of wut the wulves are doin' 'es failed to be of any 'elp.

Despite this argument Lhuna 'as come up with she culd also be a wulf who sees that she's fallin under the scope and is searchin' for sumone to turn the village 'gainst.

It now occurs to me that 'least one wulf is sittin' on the 'igh groun' so to say. Knowin' that us villagers are down 'ere jus' goin' roun' in circle, there's a quiet wulf out there that is jus' sittin' back laughin' at us, while we go after eachuthuh. I dun think both wulves are quiet ones, I think it's logical to say that there's a loudmouf wulf stirrin' the pot so to say, an' a quiet wulf watchin' it all.

So my loudmoufs:

Fordim
Panman
Aiwendil
mormegil

My quiets:

Lhuna
Kath
Wayne
Formendacil
Holby

Of the loudmoufs, I still dun surspect Aiwendil or Fordim. I think of the two, Aiwendil seems most likely to be the innocen' one (unless Holby can come up with sum explanations why). Fordim's vote fur Spawn to put 'er in the lead culd be cus 'e didn't think she wuld be lynched, but if she wus 'e now culd go unsurspected, but I dun think so at this point.

Mormegil and Panman look to be the mos' suspishus of the loudmoufs. Both, who 'ave said a lot, and we've taken as wise and knowledgeable 'ave done fairly little to 'elp us and despite all their analysis 'avent a wulf kill to back it up. I wuldnt doubt if one of 'eese two is the wulf puttin' their fingers in the stew.

Of the queits, Formendacil remains to be a puzzle to me. I 'ope sumone can figger 'im out and share, cus right now though 'e be quiet, it aint no reason to think 'es a wulf, it wuts been in 'is few posts that count.

Holby, I cant use 'er no-vote against 'er, cus of the circumstances, but right now she seems to be anuthuh quiet innocen' cus of 'er suspectin' Aiwendil. Seems odd you may say, but any innocen' with only a gut to go on 'as to wunder whos doin' the leadin' after las' night.

Wayne continues to come an' go, and I wuld vote fur 'im soon, cus 'es only goin' to be more of a trouble. Though Panman is right, it scares me that 'e may be a gifted.

Lhuna, I've explained above, though 'er pos' against mormegil makes sense, a good wulf can twist aroun' the truth to 'is/'er own advantage. Though I mus' agree with wut she says on morm.

Enough chatter for you now?~Kath

It relly aint 'ow much you pos' or 'ow often you pos' its wuts in 'em that counts. While this is a 'elpful analysis of Aiwendil, it's basically an regurgitation of wuts gone on the las' few days, but I look forward to wut else yu 'ave to offer befor the days out.

[WaynetheGoblin]

Im back and after thinking about this morning. Saucepanman is at the top of my list morms reasing makes sense to me.Lhuna is probebly the cobbler I suspected her on day 1 and 2 and I think she making the villagers lyeanch people that she thinks is innocent. Morm is a helpful player hes doing what every player should do.Boromir I dont know he Just seems suspicous to me.Kath is not strang or acting weird to me I am begining to think she is inocent.Fordims vote for me was ok because he has a good reoson for it but I wouldent like any more but I still think he is suspiceus.Formen looks fine to me nothing suspicous about him. Aiwendil is another one I dont know about. Well I going to school now good bye

[The Saucepan Man]

'Zounds! 'As someone bin a puttin' sommet in the good doctor's water? 'E's just said more in one post than 'e's said in the past two days together.

Originally Posted by Wayne

Saucepanman is at the top of my list morms reasing makes sense to me.

True 'nuff that it makes sense. True, that is, if you take things as I've said 'n done out of context, wrap 'em all up in a nice tidy bundle and add a few prejudicial words for decoration, like. A similar kind of thing could probably be done fer most villagers 'ere. Since Mormegil's case against me 'as been brought up, though, I will comment on one thing as 'e says:

Notice that while he says he has no clear idea of guilt he continually stirs the pot and is very influential in who the town votes for.

Does anyone 'ere (those as is innocent) 'ave any clear idea of anyone's guilt? All I can go on is me suspicions, and I've taken' care to outline 'em clearly (unlike Morm, I might add, bein' as 'e never explained why Rune suddenly appeared on 'is suspect list). 'Ave I really "stirred up the pot" any more than anyone else? And, while I'm flattered you think an' 'umble harbourmaster like me to be influential, I reckon that most, if not all, 'ere are more than capable of makin' up their own minds.

It was these thoughts from Master Mormegil as got me thinkin' that maybe 'e is a Wolf an' 'is strategy is to leave me alone last night with a view to leadin' the case against me during the day. Then again, I've thought similar of 'im before and bin proven wrong. However, I tend to agree with Boro that Mistress Lhuna brings out some good points against 'im. True 'nuff, they work both ways, but it's the very fact that Morm 'as appeared so 'elpful that makes me worry 'bout 'im. Wouldn't that be the best way for a Wolf to act? Yet, as Boro points out, 'e (like me, I accept) 'as actually got little right so far.

Originally Posted by Wayne

Morm is a helpful player hes doing what every player should do.

Can't disagree with you there. But then, three out of the four innocents who 'ave died so far were actin' in a way generally thought to be unhelpful and suspicious. Mayhaps it's time we started lookin' at those who are goin' out of their way to appear as helpful and innocent as possible.

I shall 'ave me eye on Master Mormegil today, that's fer sure.

One last thing afore I go fer a while:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

A secondary thought that occurred to me in the writing of this, was that if the Seer dreams of Cobblers as Innocents, then some assumptions about this village may be wrong.

I fully accepts the implication behind that comment. Even if you think Jack did dream of me an' find me innocent, that don't clear me of bein' the Cobbler. I ain't, but I don't expect you to take me word fer it. You'll just 'ave to make up yer own mind.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Mister Boromir

Despite this argument Lhuna 'as come up with she culd also be a wulf who sees that she's fallin under the scope and is searchin' for sumone to turn the village 'gainst.

Begging your pardon, sir, what I just did would be a very risky thing for a werewolf to do. If I were a wolf and I build such a convincing case (though mine's still not yet so convincing, it seems) against who I know is innocent, and if I were successful in having that person lynched, wouldn't I just have tied the rope around my own neck and strangled myself? No, sir...I am risking even my life (because we never know what the Night will bring) for what I've seen, and felt you should all realize. If I'm wrong, I'm so sorry Mister mormegil. You're just too good to be true. But while you are not yet proved innocent, you are suspicious on those grounds.

[Lhunardawen]

Mister PanMan sir, my name is Lhunardawen. NOT Lhunadarwen. And please don't call me mistress...I'm too young for that.

[mormegil]

Lhuna your suspicion of me is just fine and you need not apologize for it. I don't know what to think of your post. It does one of two things in my mind. Elevates you to wolf status or completely innocent. I say that because I am innocent and it seems wolfish to me to attack me but I say innocent because it seems that you went through many posts (although some were taken out of time context) and that you truly thought on it. Now that could be a wolf but this is something I do often as an innocent so that helps me think you innocent. Though it is interesting to be told..."you're being to helpful, therefore you must be a wolf."

More later

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Mister mormegil

..."you're being to helpful, therefore you must be a wolf."

If the latter is false, then the former is a compliment. But if the latter holds true...well, I wouldn't want to say anything impolite and I think you know what follows that.

Because a growing little girl like me needs her sleep, I shall have to vote even though little has been said so far. And since I don't want you thinking I'm fickle for suspecting one so strongly yet voting another...

++mormegil

I think you'll survive the Day anyway, and whether or not I voted wrongly shall be known within the coming Nights and Days.

G'night, everyone.

[mormegil]

I just noticed something that it very interesting and narrows my search a bit further. At the start of the day, most everybody, found me more or less innocent and gave me the benefit of my doubt last night. But now after Lhuna brought up her arguement against me we have two people jumping on it. Fair enough and not odd in itself, so to speak, but what is odd is who jumped on. Boromir and Saucepan Man, two people who ususally don't listen to others counsel and rather give their own. While Lhuna's arguement was decent I don't believe it solid enough to have influenced those two. They haven't fully committed themselves but are beginning to subtly implicate me so as to sway others in my direction.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

It was these thoughts from Master Mormegil as got me thinkin' that maybe 'e is a Wolf an' 'is strategy is to leave me alone last night with a view to leadin' the case against me during the day.

Saucepan, you give me far too much credit. My ineptitude at influencing people should be widely known by now. Also only a suicidal wolf would try and match wits with you and I am neither no wolf nor one with wits to rival you. I think my own mediocrity clears me of this charge.

So now I am suspicious of (in order)

Boromir
Saucepan
Holby
Formendacil

I realize that I haven't mentioned Holby before but she's just not sitting right with me and there's another thing or two. One example that keeps coming back to my head is this

Originally Posted by Jack

To Holbytlass's vote, I've one thing to say with a merry twinkle in my eye:

"Ha!"

I realize I assumed that Jack dreampt of SpM but I'm thinking it's possible she dreampt of Holby and that could help explain this a bit and her vehemence against her the first day, though it could just be the way Jack is and that this "Ha" was more a way of saying your vote is ludicrious because I am the seer and if you kill me you will loose a great asset. However other things about Holby aren't sitting right and I have an uncertain feeling about her and sometimes you need to trust to you instincts and luck rather than and logic.

[The Saucepan Man]

Quiet today, innit?

Originally Posted by SpM

Mister PanMan sir, my name is Lhunardawen. NOT Lhunadarwen. And please don't call me mistress...I'm too young for that.

Please accept me 'umble apologies Missy Lhunardawen.

Originally Posted by mormegil

At the start of the day, most everybody, found me more or less innocent and gave me the benefit of my doubt last night.

Yesterday, I said:

Originally Posted by the old 'arbourmaster

Mormegil: ‘Is vote yesterday is mildly suspicious, for the same reason that Kath’s vote is. ‘E seems to be ‘elpful ‘n all, but the very fact that there is little to pin ‘im down on concerns me slightly. Still, I can’t see any solid grounds for voting for him.

Early on today, I said:

Originally Posted by that 'arbourmaster again

Does that mean I reckon Mormegil to be innocent? No it don't. On the one hand, it would take a bold Wolf to make such a suspicious (as it turned out) move. But on't other, I don't doubt it's sommet a Wolfish Morm might think as 'e could pull off knowin' that the likes of me might regard it as too "obviously suspicious" for a Wolf.

Missy Lhunardawen's case against you did not start me off suspectin' you. Rather, they confirmed me suspicions an' brought together a few things I couldn't quite place me finger on afore. Basically, she be sayin' that that yer apparent willingness to be 'elpful an' gain "brownie points" with us all was worryin' 'er. That's exactly what I was feelin' yesterday, but I couldn't quite work out why. An' 'twas the things she pointed out as 'elped me understand why I 'ave this bad feelin' 'bout you.

Also, 'avin' bin convinced that I would not live to see the morn, I came to the tentative conclusion this morning that the Wolves might start tryin' to sway the village against me in the 'ope of gettin' me lynched. When you aired your suspicions of me, it fitted the behaviour I was kinda expectin' from the Wolves, an' that 'eightened me suspicions of yer too. So, you see, I ain't "piggy-backing" on Lhuna's thoughts at all. Rather, I already 'ad me suspicions of yer, and she confirmed 'em.

Originally Posted by mormegil

My ineptitude at influencing people should be widely known by now. Also only a suicidal wolf would try and match wits with you and I am neither no wolf nor one with wits to rival you. I think my own mediocrity clears me of this charge.

You are too modest, my friend. I 'ave always regarded you as a desirable ally, but a dangerous enemy.

Originally Posted by mormegil

They haven't fully committed themselves but are beginning to subtly implicate me so as to sway others in my direction.

If you are innocent, then you and I be makin' the same mistake 'bout each other. I 'ope you are innocent, but I still 'ave me concerns.

I don't know whether I'll vote fer you. But, apart from the ever-present engima that is Wayne (and particularly 'is non-vote yesterday) an' me residual concerns over Kath from yesterday, I ain't got much else to go on at the mo'.

[mormegil]

I must say that I am confused. I don't want to continue to go head to head with Mister Saucepan Man. It's too reminiscent of an epic battle I once heard about between two contestants, one young rouge, whom I think was named Eomer and the other had a similar name as yours mister SpM. Anyway those two went at it tooth and nail and turns out both were innocent.

So I don't want a rehash of that, however I don't want to let you go if you are guilty. If time allows I will attempt a clsoer look at Boromir, Holby and Formen with a possibility of Kath.

[Aiwendil]

Mormegil began to draw my attention when my (admittedly somewhat baroque and haphazard) numerical method found him the most suspicious. Allow me to analyze some of his more important behaviour.

1. DAY 1: Finds my suggestions for the Seer contradictory.

If he is innocent: This is a very reasonable thing to say (though, I think, not true).
If he is a wolf: This is a move that keeps his options open. He is now in a position to go after me, should popular opinion swing that way; but he has committed to nothing.
If he is the cobbler: Seems a reasonable thing to say.

2. DAY 1: Backs off of his attack on my Seer suggestion; finds my suspicion of Spawn and Gurthang reasonable, but suspects Gurthang more, and votes for him.

If innocent: Nothing here directly contradicts his earlier suggestion that the idea was contradictory. He simply made the wrong choice between Spawn and Gurthang.
If a wolf: Seeing that no anti-Aiwendil coalition is forming, he changes tactics and latches onto my analysis, but tries subtly to steer suspicion away from a known wolf and toward a known innocent.
If the cobbler: It seems to me a little unlikely that the cobbler would vote for Gurthang, who was acting so very cobbler-ish.

3. DAY 1: Comments that the number of votes for Formendacil is strange.

If innocent: Like me, he thought it strange that so many would vote against someone who had so far done nothing suspicious. Very reasonable.
If a wolf: Knowing that all three of the people who voted for Formendacil were innocent, he begins to set things up to go after those people on DAY 2. A shrewd and very effective tactic.
If the cobbler: His comment seems more helpful than I would expect the cobbler to be. Remember that if he's the cobbler, then he did not know at this point that the three who voted against Formendacil were innocent.

4. DAY 2: Reviews Jack's posts and points to clues that he was the Seer.

If innocent: He has spent some time searching Jack's posts for clues and has uncovered some. This is not particularly helpful at this point.
If a wolf: He has already found those hints and is merely pointing them out. Note that if the wolves knew Jack was the Seer, then someone who notices the clues is more likely to be a wolf than someone who does not.
If the cobbler: I'm not sure why the cobbler would spend much time going over the Seer's posts for clues at this point.

5. DAY 2: Suspects Wilwarin.

If innocent: Wrong but reasonable.
If a wolf: He is carrying through on his plan from the previous DAY - i.e. going after the anti-Formendacil group, all of whom are known innocents. A fairly safe but potentially very rewarding move for a wolf.
If the cobbler: Perhaps, like The Saucepan Man, he thought Wilwarin's vote was too obvious for a wolf - and, suspecting that she's innocent, he goes after her.

6. DAY 2: Proposes a "short list" plan.

If innocent: He really thinks the plan could put pressure on the wolves. It seems to me that the plan is not likely to be particularly helpful, so if he is innocent then we must assume he failed to consider the plan carefully.
If a wolf: Two of the three he lists are known innocents. If Formendacil is innocent then he is trying to ensure that no wolves are killed on DAY 2. If Formendacil is a wolf, then he is betting that the other candidates will receive more votes.
If the cobbler: He is trying to confuse things by throwing a new element into the conversation.

7. DAY 2: Creates a double lynch by voting for Rune

If innocent: He thought that either Rune or Gurthang was guilty; he gambled and lost.
If a wolf: He saw a chance to eliminate two innocents while remaining fairly safe - since he was not alone in suspecting both of them.
If the cobbler: It seems unlikely that the cobbler would create a double lynch of two that were so suspicious.

Where does that leave us? Each of his actions is reasonable for an innocent. But each of his actions seems very reasonable for a wolf. I am not sure whether we should lynch him today. The others that seem suspicious to me at this point are Kath and Lhunardawen, who have been quiet enough to escape much notice and have made very "safe" votes so far - with the possible exception of Lhuna's most recent vote for Mormegil.

[mormegil]

I'm nearly done defending myself because I find that after a certain amount it is useless as people make up their own minds and listen very little to those whom they accuse.

It seems that a point of interest is my early post of pointing out that there was a contradicition, to an extent, in Aiwendil's recomendations to the seer. I ask you, has anyone considered that this was meant to stir some conversation on a quiet first day and help to identify a wolf? Which, if I may remind you, it did. Secondly my other short list plan has been a major point. I brought it forward to give to all to consider quickly and I didn't want it distracting from the days events, which I stated! So when it was obvious after 2 or 3 people arguing against it I withdrew my plan realizing that it was not the best idea. However it was put forward with our best interest in mind; putting heat on the wolves. We were fairly unanimous at the time in thinking that Rune and Gurthang were strong candidates for wolves.

Please consider with an open mind.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

I'm very certain we have wise wolves against us. I cannot think of any reason why they would choose to kill Lady wilwa when she was under much suspicion. Either they were hoping that she's gifted or just wanted to add another dead ordinary to the list, I have no idea. But mark my words: I'm very sure that one of those we deem very helpful to the village is a treacherous lycan, no offense.

Unless, of course, they didn't care about the Gifteds, and just went for an easy kill. Or, as SPM said, they wanted to confuse us...

Thanks, Morm for your answer on the other thread. It cleared up most of my question, but not this part:

Furthermore, when he dies, do we find out right away that he/she was the Cobbler, or do we have to wait until Game End?

Unless, of course, I just plain missed what was under my nose, but I somehow don't think so...

Now, to some thoughts on the village at large...

Aiwendil: don't know if he's a Werewolf or not, a comment that applies to everybody on the list, but a thought that I toss out to the village is that, as a newcomer to the game, Aiwendil has an advantage over the rest of us in that he has no established style that anybody is familiar with...

Boromir88: Another style-related thought here, one that I believe I mentioned before. Boromir has made a habit lately, of playing this game with a goofy twist- an insulting "Frenchman", silly accents, etc. As I said, I don't think we've ever seen a Werewolf do this, or at least keep it up all game long, and so it would make pretty good cover for the first Werewolf to do so.

Fordim Hedgethistle: His vote for Wayne is saying something... either that he's clueless (which seems really out place for this master genius, but hey! this is Werewolf), or else that he WANTS us to think he's clueless. The later seems, on the face of it, unlikely, and I really don't think it's the case, but this IS Werewolf, as I have already said, and Fordhim is a smart guy, as I also already said...

Holbytlass: I haven't really got a handle on this one... She seems to have picked up a bit of an anti-Aiwendil slant, but whether this is picking up on a Werewolf, being a Werewolf, or just being confused, I'm not sure. I've never played with her before, so her preferred tactics are unknown to me...

Kath has kept quiet. Again, not someone I've played with, but I get the impression that Kath is normally a quieter player. This would suit her well, if she's a Werewolf, but it is not, in itself, evidence of that. Her reaction, however, at the end of her last post, quoted here:

Enough chatter for you now? I'll do this again for someone later but just before I head off I'm really looking hard at Sauce right now. He picked up on all Jack's clues, if before the kill then it's likely he is a wolf, if after then maybe not so much. But I don't trust him.

Her response to the chatter query seems a bit defensive, as if she's trying to "fit in" as best she can. Again, the eternal question: is she trying to avoid suspicion because she is a Werewolf or because she isn't a Werewolf?

Lhunardawen is quite lucky to be in another timezone, since it masks pretty much any suspicions the village has. The most obvious things to suspect about her are, almost inevitably, timezone-related. Could this obvious disability (analogous to a missing leg) hide a smaller, but more dangerous one (analogous to fanged teeth)? I don't seriously think so, right now, but it's something to ponder.

Mormegil: Although I don't really suspect him of yet, I've played with Morm in both of my previous games, and one pattern of his that has become clear is that Morm likes a certain amount of control over the village voting process. Or, assuming that he doesn't like it, he's very good at getting it, anyway. In other words, Morm is both able and willing to save his vote until a crucial point in the voting process, letting him pick- with impunity- the person who is going to be lynched that day. By talking and planning about it, Morm is good at not looking suspicious because of this. This isn't necessarily bad, but it is a recurring theme, from the games I've played. Now, so far in the past, Morm has been innocent and gotten away with it, but if he is, or ever will be, a Werewolf, he could easily put this experience to deadly effect. Already in this game, he has cast deciding votes...

Again, it's partly timezone, but it's also Morm's style, and it should be watched...

The Saucepan Man: The only thing I wanted to bring up about this fellow was already done for me- by his own self, in that he MAY be cleared of Werewolf charges by our dearly departed Seer, but he is not necessarily cleared of Cobbler charges. However, SPM has, if anything, been LESS confusing than usual. Perversely enough, that almost makes him MORE likely to be the Cobbler. I don't think that SPM is really the Cobbler, but it's possible...

WaynetheGoblin: It is so tempting to think that Wayne is the Cobbler, but I believe that Wayne always plays this way- although I've not previously experienced it. Still, his about-turn this morning, in what SPM reacted to with this:

'Zounds! 'As someone bin a puttin' sommet in the good doctor's water? 'E's just said more in one post than 'e's said in the past two days together.

...is just enough to make one wonder. Clearly, Wayne is quite capable of being serious. Or is this being serious his way of being the Cobbler? I've no idea, but it looks strange.

Overall, I have no big suspects, which is a really bad thing in this game... If nothing really shakes me up today, I may do a Fordhim, and vote Wayne, but instinct seems to be saying that it would be a wasted vote...

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I can't find nought wrong with yer anaysis of Mormegil, Aiwendil. It all makes good sense to me.

I am not sure 'ow to react to Mormegil's seeming backing-off from 'is accusations against me. 'E may be a Wolf reconsidering 'is strategy, but then 'e may well be genuine. An', like 'e says 'imself, I don't want to waste effort battlin' 'with 'im if he is innocent. 'Specially bein' as, if 'e is, he could yet be a great asset to this 'ere village.

My instinct, though, is that if 'e was a Wolf, 'e would've waited to see 'ow is case against me went down with others afore backin' off. So, all in all, I'm prepared to do a little backin' off misself and spend some time lookin' at other possibilities - for now, at least.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

The others that seem suspicious to me at this point are Kath and Lhunardawen, who have been quiet enough to escape much notice and have made very "safe" votes so far - with the possible exception of Lhuna's most recent vote for Mormegil.

I agree that these two merit consideration, fer the reasons you give. Mayhaps, though, Lhuna did think 'er vote today for Mormegil was safe, bein' as she said 'erself that she thought 'e'd probably survive another day (just one more, Lhuna?). As fer Kath, well 'er votin' and her takin' Jack's words outta context already 'ad me suspcious of 'er. There may well be a Wolf 'ere. But I somehow doubt that both are Wolves.

Master Aiwendil, I 'ave to say that I find misself trustin' you more and more. If you're a Wolf, then you're a damn good one. I'm gonna kick misself real 'ard if it turns out that way, but I can't 'elp but think you innocent.

Oh, and 'ere's a question fer all. What are we goin' to do about Wayne? I find misself in two minds. On the one 'and, 'is behaviour is becoming more 'n more Cobbleresque to my mind. On t'other, that's 'ow 'e always acts ...

[Formendacil]

While posting, I seem to have taken quite a while, and a few people are now leaping onto an anti-Mormwaggon. Although I expressed a pretty lengthily-worded reason for suspecting him, I want to re-emphasize that Morm is playing in his usual style- which, as I said, doesn't mean that he's not a wolf, but it DOES mean that all such past experiences (that I've partaken in) ended up with him innocent.

[Boromir88]

Boromir and Saucepan Man, two people who ususally don't listen to others counsel and rather give their own.

I nevuh jumped onto anythin' I 'ave me own mind I do. I said that Lhuna's comments on you make sense...So far you seem to know a lot about wut wulves do, but yet you 'ave failed to be 'elpful and catchin' them.

I'm nearly done defending myself because I find that after a certain amount it is useless as people make up their own minds and listen very little to those whom they accuse.

Now who wuld do such a thing as that? Ignore sumthin' that sumbody 'as to say?

Oh, and 'ere's a question fer all. What are we goin' to do about Wayne?

I keep sayin' this and I say its the trufth. The more we keep 'im around the 'arder it will be to get rid of 'im. So, we eider jus' 'ave to put up with 'im and 'is ways, or lynch 'im, cus I dun think wulves will kill 'im. Though I dun think wulves would 'ave killed Wilwarin.

[Aiwendil]

Master Aiwendil, I 'ave to say that I find misself trustin' you more and more. If you're a Wolf, then you're a damn good one. I'm gonna kick misself real 'ard if it turns out that way, but I can't 'elp but think you innocent.

No need to worry yourself there, my good harbourmaster, for I'm innocent - though I don't doubt a wolf would love to be in my position right now. I'm afraid my good name may not serve me so well at night, however . . .

That things have been a bit slow today is certainly not helping us get organized in the wake of yesterDAY's upheavals. I must confess that I'm still a bit bewildered and I'm not sure to whom my vote will go today. I'm somewhat inclined to go after Kath or Lhuna, as I indicated earlier - but on the other hand, I'm tempted to take a chance and go for Mormegil.

I forgot to mention this quote from Mormegil earlier:

He voted Fordim the first day. He didn't do anything to save Spawn, that's okay, remember Spawn was going to be abscent during many of our discussions and proffered herself as the sacrificial wolf.

Whence does he get this? Perhaps I've missed something, but I don't think that Spawn said anything about being "absent during many of our discussions". Is his memory playing tricks on him or did he let slip a comment that Spawn made to her fellow wolves?

[Boromir88]

Aiwendil:

Whence does he get this? Perhaps I've missed something, but I don't think that Spawn said anything about being "absent during many of our discussions". Is his memory playing tricks on him or did he let slip a comment that Spawn made to her fellow wolves?

You can check the Town Notice Board, and I'm assumin' this is what mormegil was refurreein' to. Though I'm sure there's sum other things you can look up scrounging through all the notes and pages. But She was 'avin sum techincal difficulties.

Though, I still find it interestin' that 'e seems to know a lot about wulf knowledge, but 'asnt been 'elpful yet.

Mr. Mormegil: Sorry if I 'ave missd it, but wut is yur explanation fur the Wolves wackin' Wilwarin yesturnight?

[Aiwendil]

Ah, I see that notice now. Sorry I missed it.

[WaynetheGoblin]

I am back from school and have noticed that unless somebody votes it will be a doubel now we already took the double lyeanch risk on day 2 and that was dumb.We could do it again but im not sure that it would help.I probebly wont vote it may cause a triple lyeanch I will be back in an hour or so and post on what happens. For the third time good - bye.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Mr. Mormegil: Sorry if I 'ave missd it, but wut is yur explanation fur the Wolves wackin' Wilwarin yesturnight?

My thought is that it's an attempt to confuse all of us, which it has worked.

Though, I still find it interestin' that 'e seems to know a lot about wulf knowledge, but 'asnt been 'elpful yet.

Being familar with and actually doing are two different things.

Aiwendil, my comments that you quoted were from a thought process of what would SpM as a wolf do and think. That is why it was written thusly.

I may go for Kath today because I'm not sure about her but then again I may go for Boromir. I still suspect SpM some and Formen though I'm horribly confused overall.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by WaynetheGoblin

I am back from school and have noticed that unless somebody votes it will be a doubel now we already took the double lyeanch risk on day 2 and that was dumb.We could do it again but im not sure that it would help.I probebly wont vote it may cause a triple lyeanch I will be back in an hour or so and post on what happens. For the third time good - bye.

Wayne go ahead and vote as it is highly likely that others will vote after you. I promise to vote today. Now there is no triple lynching so don't worry there, however if you do not vote I promise my vote will go to you on the grounds that you are either the cobbler or a wolf being quiet and confusing.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Jack

To Holbytlass's vote, I've one thing to say with a merry twinkle in my eye:

"Ha!"

The only thing I can say aout this in my defense is since now we know he's the seer, it makes sense that I might've been that night's dream seeing as I was suspicious of him and voted for him. Only he could've verifed my innocence, had he dreamt of and lived. I really believe he dreamt of SpM the first night, and I don't see Morm as suspicious. The only thing that worries me is if they both be wolves and have gone into this big public display of pointing fingers at each other, they both are smart enough to do so, but I just don't see them wasting so much time.

On Wayne, unless he's bluffing, I find in his post(s) sincere.
If there be a wolf in the loud group, I think it is someone who is more subtle and not loudest and we all know that I find Aiwendil most suspicious, I'm sorry but I stand by my gut.

As for the quiet group, there's got to definitely be one. There's just so many right now....

This is all rhetoric, but I'm just putting down where I stand on some people. I won't be back on so will have to vote now...

++Aiwendil

[WaynetheGoblin]

I dont want to vote for you I think your innicont. I dont about aiwendil and she is looking a little more suspicous to.
++AIWENDIL

I came back because I was bored.

[Aiwendil]

I dont about aiwendil and she is looking a little more suspicous to.

As I think I said before, that's "he".

I suppose it would be asking too much to suggest that Wayne elucidate his suspicion of me . . .

In any case, since I know I'm innocent (and since I don't want to kill an innocent), and since there's a chance anyone else could be a wolf, I'm willing to go along with any group to form a block of three votes for someone other than me. My preference, as I indicated before, would be for Mormegil or Kath. If there's a desire to WaynetheGoblin lynched, that wouldn't be particularly disagreeable to me either.

SPM, Boromir88, others - any thoughts?

[Formendacil]

Aiwendil and Morm seem to be the two under fire today... About Aiwendil I'm totally unsure, as so somewhat cautious about voting that way, but Morm seems wrong to me. I will, of course, be smacking myself VERY hard if he does turn out to have lupine habits, and ends up eating me...

But still, I can't vote for him today. His tendencies thus far have been too close to his normal (and innocent) patterns...

So I'll cast a token vote for Boromir88- not because I think him guilty, but because I think him suspicious, and I'm thinking that he hasn't come under enough scrutiny as yet.

This being (in all likelihood) my last post before work- and the day's end, I'll cast that vote now:

++Boromir88

[mormegil]

This day has been interesting. Rather quiet and focused. The more I think about it the more I consider Saucie to be one of the wolves and while this will probably make my life forfeit by not saving me, I will still go ahead and do what I believe an innocent should do and vote their conscience.

++The Saucepan Man

His behavior has been indicitive of a wolf. Being persuasive yet not committing to much. Allowing others to take his cues and run with them while he puppeteers them from behind so as to avoid detection. He would be intelligent enough to spend the time finding the clues that led to Jack's demise. I only did so after the fact when I knew he was our seer. The other things I have argued against Sauce still stand as to my reasoning as well.

If I die, then you will discover my innocence I put a charge on all to closely examine Saucepan for me. I'm not 100% positive of his guilt but I am more suspicious of him than others so please take my advise if I die.

[Aiwendil]

Formendacil wrote:

So I'll cast a token vote for Boromir88- not because I think him guilty, but because I think him suspicious, and I'm thinking that he hasn't come under enough scrutiny as yet.

Surely a "token" vote for someone you don't believe is a Wolf helps no one.

The votes, by my count, stand thus:

Aiwendil: 2
WaynetheGoblin: 1
Mormegil: 1
Boromir88: 1
The Saucepan Man: 1

Quite frankly, I don't see the point of voting for someone unlikely to be lynched in any case, such as Boromir or SPM. I should also point out that by means of such a vote, all one is doing is making it more likely that I will be lynched. If you truly believe I'm guilty, I can understand that. But I think an objective analysis does not confirm that supposition. If anyone would like me to put forward the points that I think speak in favour of my innocence, I would be happy to do so.

[Boromir88]

SPM, Boromir88, others - any thoughts?

'Onestly I 'ave never been more confused in my life, which leads me to believe we weren't surspectin' the right peeple yesturday, and we aint surspectin' the right peeple today.

I really believe he dreamt of SpM the first night

I'm not so sure of that. Jack sed we shuldnt 'ang Panman first day cus of 'is "smarts" and I agree. 'Owever Jack dun jus' defend Panman, but also other "smarts" like Fordim and mormegil. 'E said this 'bout Panman:

Saucepan Man is an important person here. He thinks more clearly than a few of us. Since we have to vote somebody off today, and since there are really no good reasons to vote anyone off, I highly recommend we not vote one of the smart people off. Saucepan Man, mormegil, and Fordim all fall into this category. True, some of us might suspect them, but at this point in the game, it would be folly indeed to kill any one of these.

Well Jack culdnt 'ave dreapt of all three, and it seems to me that Folwren defended Panman not cus 'e drept of 'im, but cus 'e is one of the smarter ones.

I actually think Jack 'ad dreamed of Wayne. It seems to me that 'e comes out and defends Wayne more than anyone:

I doubt Wayne's the Cobbler. Surely, he could be, but it's pretty much impossible to tell from this point. People think he's suspiciously silent and not giving any reasons for his votes and whatever else you'll bring against him. Well, right now, I would probably say that his silence isn't something that shows whether he's innocent or not innocent, because that's just how he is. He's a quiet little fellow, if you haven't noticed. Indisposed towards talking. You won't find out if he's a wolf by how many words he says

So, I aint so sure about Panmans innocence, and I say Holby pushin' the point makes both of 'em look more suspishus.

Despite Formendacil's vote fur me, it does make sense and I dun think 'es guilty. I 'avent been talked 'bout much and it seems like Formendacil is los' right now as to who to cas' 'is vote fur, and since I 'avent been talked about 'e choses me.

I'm totally as baffeld as the nex' person, but I gotta bad fellin' in my gut about Panman. And if 'e turns out to be a wulf, I wuld seriously look at Holby, who wants to push for Aiwendil's death (and I dun see why) and defend Panman.

++Panman