Werewolf VI (the saga continues in a rather continuous way)

[littlemanpoet]

My computer's working better now. Phew! (though not perfect)

I am leaning toward the innocence of Morm & Firefoot, so their lists of suspects I hold as only slighlty less authoritative than guy's

We have 4 votes in favor of the plan. Of those 4, we have:
3 against Saurreg,
4 against Holby,
3 against Gil, and
2 against Lhuna.

guy has explained that Saur claims to have thought Eomer a shirriff, then voted for him anyway. He has explained his vote.... as Holby did; but defending one's vote is not necessarily a sign of lycan.

As it is, we need more approvals of the plan before we go ahead. I'd like to see some continued discussion of the suspects.

And any idea what the Hunter ought to do to help our plan, if not choose B or C?

[mormegil]

I can see that Saurreg appears guilty and I agree but I think that Holby seems more suspicious and therefore should be the lynching victim of this day.

[the guy who be short]

Bed calls me. However, before I go, I would ask Saurreg to defend herself. Why did you say that?

I need to go back and check up on Holbytlass' record myself, as I'm loth to go by other people's evidence. I shall have that done by the morrow.

[Holbytlass]

I admit that this isnt' the great evidence but I was able to gleen something from DAY 1 and also using my instinct I think I can say that Holby is a wolf.

Post #46. Seems fairly certain that Eomer is innocent and yet begins attacking him almost immediately after and votes for him.
Holby-Wrong, I'm fairly certain that's when I began to see Eomer as odd.

Post #53 I have an idea who might be the shirrifs but if they aren't saying anything maybe I shouldn't.

I realize that this could be taken to have two meanings. One coud be that she's a wolf and doesn't want to them to vocalize who they are or that's she innocent and thinks that it's best left to them to announce themselves.
Holby-If I was a wolf I wouldn't have said anything and waited till night to tell the other wolves.

In post #89 she either inadvertenly or intentionally misreads what Eomer said in post 31

What he meant to say is that we need to look at people closely and not narrow our minds to one person because he looks a bit suspicious which we did yesterday on poor Eomer. I believe this was an intentional misread.
Holby-It was unintentional, and it has happened before. Like when I thought LMP wanted the seers to say nothing at all.


She starts the day today being defensive of her vote.
Holby-Because LMP says of me (and others) "Defend yourselves if you can."

But I think the most telling that I cannot give an exact post # on is her behavior seems very wolvish to me. She was the one the kept subtely redirecting us to Eomer. She let LMP (innocent) lead the charge but kept the heat on but in a less noticable manner. She gave a very decisive vote to clinch Eomer's death. She is acting very wolvish. Posting and saying things but staying out of the spotlight, directing us to Eomer in a subtle way, and going back and forth with Firefoot.

Holby-I feel I was not subtle, I saw Eomer to be most suspicios and said so throughout even to voting for him. I did postpone as late as possible so he could clear things up. I didn't change my vote and bandwagon on Gil, I maintained, how is that wolvish?

I do like the plan except of course me being number 1 suspect.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

I do like the plan except of course me being number 1 suspect.

Then offer us a list of your choosing.

[littlemanpoet]

Regarding Saurreg

Originally Posted by the guy

After voting for Eomer, he tells us he thought Eomer was a Shirriff! Why would an innocent vote for somebody he thought was a Shirriff?

Although I found Saurreg's post defending his vote against Eomer rather confusing, I was able to glean that he had thought that Eomer was either a werewolf or a shirriff.

So either Saurreg is a werewolf trying to be deviously misleading, or he honestly decided that the guy was right that Eomer wasn't a shirriff, and therefore must be a werewolf.

I honestly find the second of these two choices more likely.

The only damaging evidence is that he was the second to vote for Eomer

Regarding Holbytlass

After rereading all her posts, I see that the only real damaging evidence is that she was the last to vote for Eomer. Everything else looks like somebody stumbling through and making sense of things on the second or third try (not unlike Kath who was innocent).

Now, I really doubt that more than one werewolf voted for the same person (Eomer). It's possible that I'm wrong, but it would be unwise to bandwagon like that. The only reasoning against that would be a Feanorian double-bluff, figuring that since people would think it too stupid, then do it because the best place to hide is out in the open. Are our werewolves capable of that kind of thinking? It depends on how experienced and/or intelligent at least one of them is.

I've been leaning toward two rookies (gilly and Lhun) and one veteran (Holby) so far, but my theory could be as holey as a sieve.

An Alternative Theory of Werewolvishness

So what if we have a very experienced and excellently double bluffing trio of werewolves? Who would be hiding out in the open, which translates as playing an aggressive game that is well thought out in advance to redirect opinion away from themselves, and spread the voting out over as many villagers as possible in order to avoid suspicion brought on by the hardest evidence of all (i.e. voting record)? I know it can't be the guy, nor myself, being shirriffs. Who have been the smart, aggressive ones who have been the most influential, including mentioning each other as suspicious, maybe even planning cross-posts? Not saying that I believe this to be the case, but sure can't be overlooked. The people who have filled this category are: mormegil (voted for Gil-galad); Firefoot (also voted for Gil-galad); and Saurreg (voted for Eomer).

I didn't say that this working theory would lead to conclusive evidence, and it has not done so. If the theory held, morm and Firefoot would have voted for different people, and the werewolves would have tried to make sure an innocent got lynched; we're not sure if Gil is innocent.

I wanted to bring this up for us to think about carefully, because it would be a very werewolfish thing to be quick to bandwagon onto a very good plan so as to avoid suspicion. Note, morm and ff were the first two to approve of my plan. That does not mean I think they're werewolves. All of FF's posts point to her not being a werewolf (but she thought the same of me in another life). Of course, that M and F were quick to approve of my plan may show nothing more than that they are innocent loudmouths who are intelligent enough to see that it's a great idea and therefore approved it on its obvious merits.

Okay, I've had my say. I don't want us bandwagoning against three innocents. It would waste a Day and Night.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

3 against Saurreg,
4 against Holby,
3 against Gil, and
2 against Lhuna.

Considering I'd like to take myself out for personal preservation, and I hope I have given good reason for Morm's initial thinking me a wolf and how he is mistaken. TGWBS and LMP are innocent and I think Firefoot and Morm are.
That leaves Nilp, Lhuna, Oro, Gil, and Saurreg, so based on the votes taking myself out my list is....

1Gil
2Saurreg
3Lhuna

4Nilp
5Oro

[Firefoot]

So we have proposed lists of:

LMP
A) Holby
B) Lhuna
C) Gil

Morm
A) Holby
B) Gil
C) Saurreg

TGWBS
A) Saurreg
B) Holby
C) Lhuna

Holby
A) Gil
B) Saurreg
C) Lhuna

LMP
A) Morm
B) Firefoot
C) Saurreg

I could potentially go along with any of these, though my top three suspicions are probably the three on Morm's list, but I can see the sense in the other two lists as well.

I'm going to go read through the rest of the thread again; I'll let you know if I find anything of interest.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

So we have proposed lists of:

Don't forget my list:

A) Holby
B) Lhuna
C) Gil

& my new list (just to think about):

A) Morm
B) Firefoot
C) Saurreg

Edit: I'm really interested in seeing posts from Saurreg (especially the analysis), Nilp, Lhuna, Gil, and Orom.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Just posting to say that yes, I'm here, and that in about ten hours, I'll make a post of substance.

Oh, and yeah: Lynch me.

[Firefoot]

LMP - Duly noted and edited.

If people want to go with your new list, I think I would move Saurreg to the top (at this point. I want to hear what he has to say as well). I'm not really going to respond to your accusations; I'll let my posts stand for themselves.

Concerning Gil - I think it's odd that he was immediately so suspicious of TGWBS's and LMP's claim to be Shirriffs. Maybe he didn't have time to think it out, but (to me, anyway) it seemed pretty clear pretty quick that no wolf in his/her right mind would do that... Not a lot else can be gleaned from his other posts. He got extremely irritated that we were voting for him for lack of substance. His vote for Eomer makes sense according to his given reason (to save himself). I'm certainly suspicious of him, and his posts have done nothing to alleviate that - unfortunately, there's also nothing concrete to comment on.

Saurreg - I can see where his analysis would fit coming from either a wolf or an innocent. He commented on several people as being possible wolves - some of them now proven wrong. He could be a wolf casting suspicion on others or a confused innocent. I'm not sure what to think of his vote for Eomer. I don't know that I want to lynch him, but certainly I think one of the Seers should dream about him. (Note: my uncertainties may be based on the fact that at the end of Day 1, I was thinking him innocent. Eomer's warning is a double-edged sword: once you think a person is innocent it is very easy to 'see' them as innocent...)

Holbytlass - defended gifted villagers, was against deliberate killings of innocents. Generally a good sign, however, both would be things that a clever/experienced wolf would say. I think she probably has more figured out than she's saying.

If Holby is a wolf, I don't think that Gil is - why would she put him as Suspect A? I'm starting to suspect a Holby/Saurreg alliance - Saurreg said in his analysis post, "worth taking a look at," but there are several more that he seemed much more suspicious of, actually calling them possible lycans. Holby put him as her Suspect B; however, it makes more sense to keep two people on her list who are already on people's lists (that is, Saurreg and Lhuna), even if one of them is a wolf. After all, he wouldn't be lynched until tomorrow, and in the mean time it would remove suspicion from herself.

Admittedly, this is pretty tenuous. But I'll put it out there anyway.

Oh, and I'm starting to wonder if we maybe shouldn't have a Seer dream about Nilp anyway, just to save ourselves the headache of trying to figure out whether he's single, double, or triple bluffing, or not at all. Seriously.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

LMP - Duly noted and edited.

thanks.

If people want to go with your new list, I think I would move Saurreg to the top (at this point. I want to hear what he has to say as well).

Duly noted and accepted.

I'm not really going to respond to your accusations; I'll let my posts stand for themselves.

As I said in the post to which you refer, I doubt that you're a wolf, but the point had to be raised because I don't want us wasting either lynches or dreams if we can avoid it.

Concerning Gil - I think it's odd that he was immediately so suspicious of TGWBS's and LMP's claim to be Shirriffs. Maybe he didn't have time to think it out, but (to me, anyway) it seemed pretty clear pretty quick that no wolf in his/her right mind would do that... Not a lot else can be gleaned from his other posts. He got extremely irritated that we were voting for him for lack of substance. His vote for Eomer makes sense according to his given reason (to save himself). I'm certainly suspicious of him, and his posts have done nothing to alleviate that - unfortunately, there's also nothing concrete to comment on.

I've noticed that nobody has commented on my "rookie werewolf" theory, of posting on a Werewolf thread during a Night phase. Anybody have any thoughts on that?

Holbytlass - defended gifted villagers, was against deliberate killings of innocents. Generally a good sign, however, both would be things that a clever/experienced wolf would say. I think she probably has more figured out than she's saying.

Good point.

If Holby is a wolf, I don't think that Gil is - why would she put him as Suspect A? I'm starting to suspect a Holby/Saurreg alliance - Saurreg said in his analysis post, "worth taking a look at," but there are several more that he seemed much more suspicious of, actually calling them possible lycans. Holby put him as her Suspect B; however, it makes more sense to keep two people on her list who are already on people's lists (that is, Saurreg and Lhuna), even if one of them is a wolf. After all, he wouldn't be lynched until tomorrow, and in the mean time it would remove suspicion from herself.

I found Holbyltass's list to be rather a cop-out. No reasons offered, just trying to be agreeable as wolvishly possible; at least that's my sense. Yeah, I'm going back and forth on her.

Oh, and I'm starting to wonder if we maybe shouldn't have a Seer dream about Nilp anyway, just to save ourselves the headache of trying to figure out whether he's single, double, or triple bluffing, or not at all. Seriously.

I'm thinking we have enough viable candidates against whom there is real (if minimal) evidence to lynch and dream of besides Nilp, at least for the first Night.

I'm heading to bed (way too late) and will cast my vote in the morning, after which there will be 3 1/2 more hours for developments to have occurred. I hope more happens by the time I vote than yesterday.

[Saurreg]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I sort of made a logical leap that Eomer would presume the innocent was me due to my plan, and I was right. Even if that weren't the case, I know Eomer is very clever, so I simply presumed he would try to apply logic to the situation.

Contradict yourself here. Eomer's posts only brought about more suspicion against himself and ultimately his doom. If that was the use of intelligence and logic, it is very poor practice indeed. I cannot tell why you would think that ploy of his as smart.

1. It was a gamble, not a risk.
2. The contents of his post incredible
3. He chose to be mysterous and thus suspicious to all

The only reason why I think you are such a rabid supporter is because he vouched for your innocence and hence you feel obliged to clear his name.

As mentioned in my post, I wanted to wait for you to clear that enigmatic post of yours but you came in too late for reasons I do not know of. And as I have posted in my analysis, Eomer was the most perculiar and his strategy most bizzare. This led me to believe very strongly that he could be a werewolf throwing in a big gambit. A make or break move I should say. RL pressed and I had to vote and hence as the biggest suspect (bigger than LMP was time flowed), I had no choice but to vote for him based on deduction. And in anycase I was the second to vote for him and I believe my reason for doing is so is far better than LMP's. If the rest of the people did not agree with the points as posted above, they would not have followed suit either.

EDIT: If my post wasn't clear last night, then it could be because it is late and Im' tired and when i'm tired my understanding and ability to communicate in English diminishes... Kinda like that misleading post in my first game.

[Firefoot]

I've noticed that nobody has commented on my "rookie werewolf" theory, of posting on a Werewolf thread during a Night phase. Anybody have any thoughts on that?

I don't know that it's anything conclusive... it could just as easily be a "rookie innocent" mistake. I hear what you're saying, though.

I'm off to bed now too... I won't back for about 8 hours, but I will be back in time to get my thoughts together, vote, etc.

[Saurreg]

Firefoot
Voted for: Gil-galad
Posting Behaviour: Logical rejoinder and counter-suggestion to TGWBS's aborted plan. Thought Eomer might have been a sheriff. Questions Mormegil's suspicions. Post 38 easily misinterpreted. Voted for Gil-galad when majority was leaning towards Eomer. Centerist - offers nothing. Nonchalant (apathetic) attitude to Gil makes reasoning of vote reads dubious... Thinks there is a Saurreg/Holby alliance due to Saurreg's wording.

Gil-Galad
Voted for: Eomer
Posting Behaviour: Did not answer to Mormegil's punt. Vots for Eomer to save his skin. Could truly be misunderstood r a lycan blanding into the background as hard as possible. Strangely enough the fitst to tretort against TGWBS' claims. RADAR ALERT!

Holbytlass
Voted for: Eomer
Posting Behaviour: She agrees immediate to TGWBS' plan without batting an eyelid, when everybody has yet to endorse. Takes a analytical approach she voted for Eomer. wants to save the special villagers as long as possible.


ittlemanpoet
Voted for: Eomer
Posting Behaviour: Claims to be sherriff (believed by most)

Lhuna
Voted for: Gil-galad
Posting Behaviour: Insubstantial post. Votes for Gil for no apparant reason. Vote comes 11 mins immediately after Morm's. RADAR ALERT!

Nilpaurion Felagund
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: Bizzare disruptive post

Orominuialwen
Voted for:
Posting Behaviour: Insubstantial post. Nothing to work with. Not present during voting.

the guy who be short
Voted for: firefoot
Posting Behaviour: Offers contradicting reason to post 72 contents. Claims to be sherriff. Dubious reason behind vote for firefoot.

Mormegil
Voted for: Gil-galad
Posting Behaviour: Suggested a less than perfect scheme that might end in random senseless lynch (what for?). Singles out TGWBS and Oro (why?) out of no where and then thinks TGWBs is innocent. Highly erratic post behaviour. The delivery of that post contradicts its meaning? Leads the vote against Gil that is immediately followed by Lhun. Strangely absent in current round. Interesting... Very interesting.

**********************

Firefoot - I believe you read too much into my words. To me , could be a lycan/werewolf and take a closer look holds the same. I dunno, diff culture diff way with words? In any case I do think you are innocent as of now.

It is a pity so many players choose to remain so silent and thus we are unable to analyze their posts. At this point of time with TGWBS and LMP most probably our sheriffs and innocent, most of my suspicions fall on Gil and Lhun

In the spirit of gamesmanship I want to believe in Gil for his difficult RL problem. But the very short and immediate retort to the supposed sherriffs' claims almost immediately, seem to indicate that he was closely monitoring the game. And then poof! Nothing else. But that could also be interpreted that his father coincidentally allowed his access then. His first post is also enigmatic - he offered nothing to the game whatsoever.

Lhun is more difficult. She had a role in Gil-galad's votes and it came 11mins after morm's. The timing is suspicious and so far she has laid low and offered us nothing against us. If she was a wolf then we have only her vote to analyze. But that is too slim a lead.

Therefore I vote for

++Gil-galad

And pray my vote holds true. The rest of my suspects in order are:

1. Lhun
2. Morm
3. Holby
4. Oro
5. Nilp
6. TGWBS
7. LMP
8. Firefoot

Anyone who have not posted automatically earns an upper slot in my list.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Saurreg

Mormegil
Voted for: Gil-galad
Posting Behaviour: Suggested a less than perfect scheme that might end in random senseless lynch (what for?). Singles out TGWBS and Oro (why?) out of no where and then thinks TGWBs is innocent. Highly erratic post behaviour. The delivery of that post contradicts its meaning? Leads the vote against Gil that is immediately followed by Lhun. Strangely absent in current round. Interesting... Very interesting.

I've posted 7 times today so I don't see that as abscent myself.

I put forward how I felt and have responded to ideas and now I am just sitting and reading what has been posted to further analyze and adjust my opinions.

I am somewhat pacified by Holbytlass' defense. I would move her to second or third on my list and bump Gil up to number 1 meaning lynch today. So my revised list is

A. Gil-Galad
B. Saurreg
C. Holbytlass

[Lhunardawen]

How could we have done such a thing to such a handsome guy?
And poor Kath, she would have been of great use to the village.

But I see I am suspect. From what I can read I am suspicious because:
a) I voted for Gil 11 minutes after morm did
b) My vote for Gil has no apparent reason
c) I posted nothing substantial
oh, and
d) I posted in the original thread at NIGHT

At the time of my first post it was Gil who stood out as most suspicious to me because of that totally senseless post of his. Rash it might seem of me, but it so happened that just as I was thinking about actually voting for Gil (since RL does not allow me more time online), I saw morm vote. I could not see anyone else who was worth voting for at that time so I decided to vote for Gil right before RL grabbed the computer off my hands.

I was not able to post anything of substance due to the time constraint. But now that I have thought a little about the events, I have a few questions of my own...later.

As for posting at NIGHT, it was a day when I was most free to catch up with everything else I missed on the Downs. I realized my mistake too late. lmp, I am indeed a rookie - that's not my fault. But I'm most definitely not a werewolf.

tgwbs, don't I have the right to defend myself if I am accused falsely, and through an unreliable method at that? But you have to admit the abacus is really unreliable. If I seemed extremely defensive, that was due to my theatrical mood at the time. You know, it's hard to be a Lhunatic. You just don't know what mood you'll have until it hits you right smack on the face. But thanks for telling me (indirectly) that I was being theatrical then.

Now for my query: mormegil, this might be totally irrelevant, but is there more to that Oromin example of yours in post #12 than meets the eye?

lmp: Your plan is good, but as for my list of suspects, I'll have to do more thinking. But for now I'm quite suspicious of Saurreg, Holby, Oromin, and Firefoot, in no particular order.

Last note before heeding RL call: Good job, mytho!

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I have a plan. By using a rather scientific method (a co-worker choosing a number 1 to 12) and matching that number on the list provided above I vote we go for somebody at random today. He choose number 10, which would corespond to Oromin. It is of course a shot in the dark and this way seems as easy as any.

Now for my query: mormegil, this might be totally irrelevant, but is there more to that Oromin example of yours in post #12 than meets the eye?

Nope it was completely a random pick. My thought was that since we are more likely to get a innocent villager on the first day and compounding the problem is influence by the wolves why not make it totally random. Also it allowed to get some responses and gauge reaction. Just because I mentioned this shortly after TGWBS responded to it did not mean that I had stopped gauging reaction. Why I believed at the time that TGWBS is innocent is because he wanted to take a more methodical approach to finding somebody to kill...possibly increasin our odds of getting a wolf. Of course, that didn't work and we killed poor Eomer...why I don't know he seemed very innocent to me. Anywho there was the possibility that TGWBS was defending Oromin because they are a wolf pack. It wouldn't be likely that TGWBS would make such an obvious blunder...again why I believed him innocent. Of course, I continue to believe that both LMP and TGWBS are innocent.

I've listed before but I will group people in three groups. Group 1 are the most suspicious. 2 not as suspicious but I don't believe them innocents yet. Group 3 people I know to be innocent.

Group 1
Gil-Galad
Saurreg
Holbytlass

Group 2
Nilp
Lhuna
Oromin

Group 3
Firefoot
Mormegil
TGWBS
LMP

I feel fairly confident in my vote today for

++Gil-Galad

I would ask that seer 1 dream of Saurreg and seer 2 dream of Holbytlass. Again it's time for bed and I dont' have time to post in the morning so that is why I vote now. If the seers are to dream of somebody else I think the either LMP or TGWBS should list the final decision.

[Lhunardawen]

Oh, okay. Thanks, morm. Looks like I have to think back to square one, then.

Now, to business.

Gil-galad - He most likely was just being himself on his first post. I'm ready to understand that he voted for Eomer because he was the most suspected of at the time aside from himself, and thus, to save his own skin...or fur. Eventually became too dramatic about being suspected because of his posts. Then he suspected tgwbs and lmp of bluffing about being sheriffs (that would be quite a normal reaction) but said nothing else afterwards. Hmm...

tgwbs and lmp - There's no sense for both of you to pretend being sheriffs so I'll take your word for it. That was a nice show you had out there at the start by the way:

Originally Posted by lmp

An' as fer thet plan of guy, it was fart in the head, plain an' simple.

Originally Posted by tgwbs

If a Shirriff is about to by lynched - tell us who the other one is! The werewolves are forced to lynch them.

morm - There's more to you than meets the eye. And right now I don't mean that as a bad thing.

Holby - Hammered the final nail on Eomer's coffin with, in my opinion, unreasonable reasons. Explained herself, but still a bit suspicious.

Firefoot - No doubt about it, she's smart. Seems innocent to me, but could be a very sneaky werewolf trying to hide by helping the village out. Or someone learned.

Oromin - Did not vote yesterday. Still not much substantial posts. Could be a werewolf trying to distance herself from the game or an innocent with not much idea what to do.

Nilp - Whatever he is, lynch him.

Saurreg - He was too keen on lynching Eomer, so he could be innocent, or a werewolf hiding behind that assumption. First to suspect me. Attacked tgwbs on defending Eomer. Could be in cahoots with Holby.

Lhuna - Immediately voted for Gil after morm due to RL. Too defensive about tgwbs' abacus. Obviously a Lhunatic.

So on my suspect list are: A: Saurreg, B: Holby, and C: Gil.

I need more posts from Oromin to see if she really is innocent. And Firefoot I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

lmp, while I think your plan is a great idea, are we willing to compromise the seers' lives? And how can we utilize the hunter? Thoughts, anyone?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Lhuna

lmp, while I think your plan is a great idea, are we willing to compromise the seers' lives? And how can we utilize the hunter? Thoughts, anyone?

The seers should only speak up if they've found a werewolf .... or two; or are about to be lynched. That way they stay hidden from the werewolves.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I would ask that seer 1 dream of Saurreg and seer 2 dream of Holbytlass.

I'm good with morm's request.

++ Gil-galad

Edit: Saurreg did not approve the plan. Conclude what you like from that.

[the guy who be short]

We have three wolves still, and I'm not at all confident about the votes for G-G. He seems strange, but then again he always is.

That said, I have no idea who to vote for. Saurreg and Lhuna remain on my suspect list but seem to have answered themselves. Holbytlass seems most suspicious to me.

++Holbytlass then.

[Firefoot]

Gil - 3 (Saurreg, Morm, lmp)
Holby - 1 (TGWBS)

I'm still undecided as to my vote. It it comes down to it, however, Gil would be helping the werewolves a whole lot less than Holby would due to his internet access. I'm not sure if this should factor in or not... but it's something to think about.

I think that two of the three people who voted for Eomer on Day 1 are probably wolves - two among Holby, Saurreg, and Gil. If this proves true, we should know who two wolves are after tonight; hopefully we'll have lynched one of them.

Saurreg - it's quite possible that I read too much into your wording. But sometimes the wording counts.

I think it's extremely odd that not only did Saurreg not approve of LMP's plan, but he also still seems to doubt LMP's and TGWBS's claims to be Shirriffs. By now, I think that everyone has posted since they made their claim, and if there was ever any doubt it should be gone. The true Shirriffs would have certainly spoken up.

lmp, while I think your plan is a great idea, are we willing to compromise the seers' lives? And how can we utilize the hunter? Thoughts, anyone?

I'd say the best way for the Hunter to go would be to choose either Suspect B or C (which seem likely to be Saurreg and Holby, but could be Saurreg and Gil, depending on who is lynched...) These two people are generally the highest on everyone's suspicion list.

I'd really like to hear from Gil before casting my vote, but perhaps that's too much to hope.

[Holbytlass]

Firefoot:I think she (Holby) probably has more figured out than she's saying.

I don't, that's why I'm bumbling around trying to get everyone to see that i'm innocent despite the wrong vote for Eomer.


TGWBS:Saurreg and Lhuna remain on my suspect list but seem to have answered themselves.

I know it's too late on TGWBS's vote, but how haven't I answered myself?


LMP:I've noticed that nobody has commented on my "rookie werewolf" theory, of posting on a Werewolf thread during a Night phase. Anybody have any thoughts on that?

I'm not defending anyone here, but I personally find night phase good to go back and analize things because no one can post anymore. And I certainly look and post on other threads in the meantime.

++GIL-GALAD

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Mod's Note: This segment ends at 9:30, just to get back to normal. That means you have a half hour to finish voting, because there are more than five of you. Yes, five.

Knowing he would be unable to keep up with the thread toDAY, Gil-Galad had to make a snap-shot decision very early on on who to vote for in order not to incur my wrath by not being around. I was informed that he would vote for ++TGWBS because the Sherriff story felt kind of funny to him.

[Firefoot]

All right. Obviously we aren't going to hear anything more from Gil... and I'm as uncertain/suspicious of him as of anyone.

++GIL-GALAD

So the seers should go with Morm's plan:

I would ask that seer 1 dream of Saurreg and seer 2 dream of Holbytlass.

And the hunter should choose either Saurreg or Holbytlass.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Votes are irretractable and should be posted on a seperate line like this:

++FEANOR

Uh I believe you need to have you vote look like this Feanor

Please correct it so our mod doesn't get upset.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Gil-Galad, you are being voted off because they think you are a werewolf, not as a perceived slight. If you could not post often enough, and knew in advance, you probably should have waited for another round. Please refrain from making pointless posts here or elsewhere that affect the game in progress.

[Orominuialwen]

Well, I'm back. RL kept me away most of toDAY, but I didn't want to miss the vote through my own inattentiveness again. I got up at 1:30 am to set my alarm so I would be up in time to read and post before DAY ends.

First off, I'd like to say that the plan sounds like a very good idea to me. I'm going to wait until later in this post to make a list, though, since at the moment you all seem suspicious, except for lmp andtgwbs, who I am absolutely positive are innocent.

Gil-His behavior is suspicious, but I don't quite get the feeling that he's a wolf. I have absolutely nothing to back this up, so don't take my word for it, but I think he's just being himself.

tgwbs and lmp- I know they're innocent. There's no reason to doubt what you've said.

morm- I've got sort of a vague bad feeling about him. There might be absolutely no basis for this, but he strikes me as a bit odd. I'll have to wait and see how things develop to judge better.

Holby- She's been quite defensive, which could be either a sign of guilt, or somewhat panicked innocence. I think she might be a wolf.

Firefoot- I think she's just too logical to be a wolf. She's probably one of the most innocent-seeming to me, other than tgwbs and lmp.

Nilp- I think that he's innocent, but am not positive. I think his absences have largely been due to RL issues and that any suspicious behavior from him is probably just due to his personality.

Saurreg- he/she (sorry, can't tell whether you're a guy or a girl!) seems suspicious to me. They didn't approve the plan, as lmp says, and I think this is rather suspicious. Also, they've been acting defensive, but at this point I'm not sure what to think.

Lhuna- She's been quite defensive. This could either be because she's guilty or because she's inexperienced.



Now I see that Gil is pulling out, I will vote for him, even though I think he's innocent, to try and minimize unnecessary bloodshed. Sorry Gil, I don't think you're guilty, and I don't blame you for your RL issues, but if you're leaving anyway, I don't want to vote for someone else who may be innocent.

As far as a list goes, there isn't time now. Seer, please just go by other people's list and take my suspicions into account if you wish.

Edit: Aaagh! Forgot to put in my vote!

++ GIL-GALAD

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Voting over, Gil is gone. Expect his death post shortly.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

It had been a long day of debate and discussion of strategy when it was decided not even nearly unanimously that Gil-Galad should die. It was very highly suspected amongst the village that he was taking place in night time wolvery, and so with five votes to seal his death, Gil-Galad was nailed to a crucifix.

"Well.." he said with not a small amount of consideration. "I suppose you really ought to always look on the bright side of death. That and split your infinitives."

And so, with these words, Gil-Galad cheerfully whistled until his terminal breath vacated his body. A short while later, the call was made for the collection of the dead. Though at first it was uncertain whther he was dead, alive, or just pretending, it was soon quite obvious that he was pretending.

"It's a miracle!" he cried. "I think I'm getting better!" Air streamed into his lungs as he was resurrected for a short time. His lungs expanded, filling up his chest. Then his chest expanded into a rather more bulky one. His nose expanded into a snout, and his teeth expanded into rather terrifying looking fangs. The village had found themselves a wolf, and now they were in grave peril. They had taken him down from the crucifix that he had seemed to have died on, and lo and behold! He'd been faking it. His transformation complete, it looked as though he was quite about to ravage the villagers standing awestruck around him.

A swift whack upside the head solved the matter. Gil-Galad (TTM) was knocked from his "second" and most unnatural life with naught but a quick look around to see if anyone was willing to prosecute for the aggrevated assault. Nobody was, seeing as how the plan was to kill him in the first place. The body was unceremoniously tossed into a wheelbarrow with the words "See you next Thursday" muttered, and a new NIGHT began.

-----------------------

NIGHT is now in session. Wolves, PM each other and then get word to me who dies next. Seers, dream something. Hunter, get me a name. Sherriffs, go to sleep. Villagers... also go to sleep.

Those Dead:

Eomer (villager): killed in a very ripped off horror-movie way
Kath (ranger): slaughtered to the sounds of GhostEomer's lute
Gil-Galad (wolf): killed in an entirely ripped off comedy-flick way

Mod's Note: Yep, it's Friday. ToNIGHT will be a few hours longer than usual, which is why I don't feel guilty that I'm running a wee bit late with this post. Depending on RL circumstances that you don't care about, I'll get a dawn post up between normal time and noon, but I won't guarantee a time because I can't.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

"What the!?!?" he cried.
"Don't make so much noise." he also cried.
"Shut up! I'm the one being attacked here!" he cried once more.

The two lycans advanced, a menacing glint in their eyes. Against all odds (and the moderator had indeed lost a bet over it), their choice for tonight's fun was none other than Mr. Personalities himself, Nilpaurion Felagund.

"Quiet", they hissed evilly, as they dragged his struggling form toward the stables. "Not that anyone will hear you, but you'll scare the horses."

And indeed, there were four horses. Nilp yelled all the more, just to spite the werewolves. The horses pranced nervously at the nearness of the creatures, but settled at Nilpaurion's gentle touch. He'd always liked horses. He admired their gleaming chestnut coats, their impressive build. They were a rather large set of geldings... stallion mean when they wanted to be, but they'd never take off after a mare.

He looked back at the wolves who were, oddly enough, conferring just out of his line of hearing. Ignoring them for a few moments, he looked closer at the graceful creatures. They trembled with nerves, but stood calm. Each horse was harnessed and attached to heavy chains that currently held them to the wall of the stable. He wondered at them, a growing sense of dread filling his every bone. The lycans advanced, settled on the details of tonight's wolvery.

"Nilpaurion Felagund, what say you? Do you See?"

"You're right in front of me, of course I see you." he said.
"Yes... we both see you." he said again.
"How could I possibly miss you, when you're hovering malevolantly like that?" he said.

"Yes... we thought you might answer as thus. Which is why we've prepared such a fitting death. You shall be drawn and quartered... one personality for each section of you."

"Wait.... I see a flaw with this plan. Nilpaurion... Adam... sometimes Alice... what is the fourth?"

They answered with a pair of terrifying smirks. "You, m'boy, are pretending to be Calm." And with that, they jumped him. He struggled heroically, but not hard enough. He yelled loudly, but not loud enough. He kicked them, but it didn't work. Within seconds, Nilpaurion Felagund was chained to four noble steeds and was soon discovering that he did not much like them any more.

With shrieks of pain and the obligatory exhuberant baying from the wolves, Nilpaurion Felgaund was drawn into several pieces in the wee hours of the morning. He had never offered any signs of Sight, he had never kindly offered to kill someone else in return for the taking of his life. The wolves had found a peaceful villager. Now, ironically enough, he was a pieceful one.

Upon finding his remains in the early hours, the village gasped in horror. The horses had been let free to graze. The separate sections of Nilp had been piled carefully and labelled with signs.

Nilpaurion Felagund labelled his left arm, several ribs, and a strip of intestine.

Adam was his head, right arm, neck, and the rest of his torso.

Alice was the left leg.

Random Others was the rest.

It was said in later years that Alice was not all-together happy with her lot, but such was life, and it could scarcely be changed.

--------------------------------------

DAY has begun. Wolves stop your PMing, Sherriffs, start. Seers have dreamt, Hunter has hunted, Nilp's been slain. DAY will end some time tomorrow morning. I won't guarantee the time, because it depends on several variables.

Dead:

Eomer (villager): killed like the little girl on The Ring on Day 1
Kath (Ranger): attacked unexpectedly on Night 1 (to the sound of Eomer's music)
Gil-Galad (Wolf): killed with a club on Day 2 with Monty Python jokes
Nilp (villager): drawn and quartered on Night 2

Alive:

Firefoot
Holby
Lhuna
LMP
Morm
Oromin
Saurreg
TGWBS

Have fun and be good, my children.

[the guy who be short]

Do these werewolves just kill for fun or something? You'd expect a lot more eatin' from such fiends.

Anyway, Nilp killed... weird.

So, theories:

Right. Nilp. Not sure about his death. Perhaps the wolves, seeing that with two known Shirriffs, the chance of killing a Seer was higher, chose to kill Nilp in the hope that he was one of them. Much more likely, they did it to confuse the heck out of us.

However, a lot can be gleaned from voting records, as per usual. Observe:

Day 1, the two front runners were Eomer and Gil-Galad.

Mormegil, Lhuna and Firefoot voted for G-G. No wolf would vote for another wolf on Day 1 - it would be sheer lunar-cy. I propose that all three of these are innocent.

However, Saurreg, Gil (known wolf) and Holbytlass voted for Eomer. I believe it was necessary for all three to do so to save Gil on the first Day. Saurreg and Holbytlass are, therefore, our wolves.

This isn't absolutely definite. Oromin didn't vote and could, potentially, still be a wolf. I doubt it though.

Yesterday, they both voted for G-G, with Saurreg initiating the voting. This was probably a ploy to create some sort of defense, as they saw the sway of opinion.

Seeing as good ole Firefoot is still alive, I'm waiting for her post of who voted for whom. Until then, I propose a joint lynching of Holbytlass and Saurreg. Should this fail, we should turn our attention to Oromin.

[Firefoot]

Fact: Holbytlass is a wolf.

The other wolf is either Saurreg or Morm - these are the only two whose role I don't know, and the other Seer should have dreamt of Saurreg - who I think is more likely to be guilty. (If, somehow, there was a mistake, there's always tonight - the wolves can only kill one of us.) I see no way that the villagers can lose: we lynch Holbytlass today and the other wolf tomorrow. Or, as TGWBS proposed, we could just have a double lynching and get it over with (I was forgetting that that was allowed...).

Just for the record... (and because TGWBS asked):

Gil - 6 (Saurreg, Morm, LMP, Holby, Firefoot, Oromin)
Holby - 1 (TGWBS)
TGWBS - 1 (Gil)

Did not vote: Lhuna, Nilp

I also think it's odd that Nilp was killed - perhaps they thought he was a Seer. Oh... actually, it does make sense. The seers were set to dream about Holby and Saurreg, and if they were both wolves, the only way to save one of them was to kill a Seer. Hopefully (for them) they'd get another Seer tomorrow night, and the third wolf's identity would remain unproven by a seer.

[the guy who be short]

Ah, Firefoot, I thought you were a Seer. The mytho-Seer actually. Please tell us all the people you've dreamt of so far for clarity.

I was gonna ask the Seers to come out actually.

[mormegil]

As for my guilt I can tell you that I am innocent. However if my record doesn't speak for itself I would suggest the other seer come forward if they dreamt of Saurreg as they were suppose to.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Ah, Firefoot, I thought you were a Seer. The mytho-Seer actually. Please tell us all the people you've dreamt of so far for clarity.

I was gonna ask the Seers to come out actually.

Wait on that Firefoot

In case Seer 1 didn't dream of Saurreg or myself. We shouldn't expose who they are. Suffice it to say that you don't know of Saurreg or myself.

[Firefoot]

Oromin - Seer (who I became)
Lhuna - Hunter
Holby - wolf

Unless I am completely mistaken, Oromin dreamt of lmp (see post 108). Of course, TGWBS is the other Shirriff.

This leaves Morm and Saurreg - one of them is an ordinary villager, the other a wolf.

[mormegil]

I would ask you to look at how I ended the day yesterday. Did it not seem that I was attempting to be the seer? I was hoping that it would be obvious to the actual seer especially to Firefoot the Mytho seer. I was attempting to be subtle in my manner but show that I was the seer so the wolves would attack me last night. I must say I'm a bit surprised to be alive today.

anyway there you have it.

[the guy who be short]

Morm, you certainly convinced me that you were the Seer. In any case, I find the evidence against Saurreg stronger. If the double lynching proves her to be innocent, we'll kill morm. Easy.

All we need to do is organise the double lynching.