Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Another idea:

Originally Posted by Di on the discussion thread

Um... we're starting today? Nogrod, Boromir, and I are all still playing another game. Is this going to be a problem?

How about we solve their conflict by lynching them first?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I think Nogrod is not a wolf. Why would a wolf bother stirring the pot on the first day and making that point against SPM? It only draws attention.

[Mithalwen]

But Bethberry ... you are posting.... you are participating ....... perhaps we should ask our resident philosopher if you are"in the game".


.....

[the phantom]

Beth might be a WW. Yes indeed. I don't think anything Fea has said rules out the possibility of more WWs existing outside the list of players. But whether or not these outsiders can influence the village- I don't know.

Has anyone noticed that there are no conditions for victory? Does a village of two WWs and two villagers equal WW victory? Does slaying two village WWs equal villager victory? We do not know.

All that we know is that there are thirteen players and that two of the thirteen are WWs. No, it is not possible that Beth is one of the two WWs. Fea specifically says that out of the 13 players, two are WWs. Not only that, but she precisely defines who the 13 players are. There is no loophole there. If Beth is a WW, she is an extra.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Fea

Yes. If you want to.

Okay, I'm only to this point and doubt I'll get much further before I have interviews to go and do but I say curse you Fea! This is complete craziness and makes me want to freak out. How are we suppose to know who and how to lynch when you keep doing stuff like this? I guess I should have known what a Fea game would contain but I am a bit surprised by this new revelation, so to speak.

[The Saucepan Man]

Will, this has proven to be an extremely productive day so far.

Not.

Still, hardly suprising, given the circumstances. Fea might as well have chosen the first lynch victim by the toss of a thirteen-sided coin for all that seems to have been achieved so far.

And we still don't know for sure whether the Wolves are a team or whether they hunt alone. I would have thought that to be a rather important piece of information. But I might as well have been running around in lime-green lycra tights brandishing a beetroot and shouting "wibble" at the top of my voice for all the good that it has done raising it.

As regards the suspicion cast in my direction for making a pre-game enquiry on this matter, it is something that I would wish to establish whether I was innocent or a Wolf. If I were a Wolf, however, I would not have shared the answer to my enquiry but rather allow the original assumption that the Wolves were playing as a team (albeit without knowing each other's identity) to stand.

Until advised otherwise, I will contine to base my approach on my understanding that they are in competition.

I do accept that my idea of creating a 13-way tie is off the cards, following Fea's subsequent clarification. It was not, however, a Wolfish ploy (indeed, had it been, it would have been an extremeley stupid one). It was an idea based upon my reading of the rules at the time, and one which I thought might put the Wolves under pressure.

If we are basing our ideas on Fea having some hand in the choice of Wolves, then my inclination is to look at those most capable of messing with the villager's heads. In that regard, the phantom, Diamond, Boro and Roa are the ones that spring to mind.

On the other hand, I take Nogrod's point that one could come up with reasons for Fea selecting any one of the villagers as a Wolf. I also share Ang's tentative view that at least one of the Wolves (if not both) was randomly selected.

As for grudges, they are not something which I particularly hold in Werewolving terms. The closest I come to holding a grudge is having people that I nearly always end up suspecting at some point in a game. For current purposes, that would cover elempi, Eomer, mormegil and the phantom.

Not sure who might have a grudge against me. Elempi, perhaps, from the time of my one Wolvish ancestor. Alos, possibly, Mith and Nogrod for my family's Goosey history.

Finally, I have only had an opportunity to review the latest contributions to our debate briefly, but I get the distinct impression that both Boro and the phantom have directed a fair bit of their energies today at telling us why they should not be lynched.

I shall go back and review the discussion to date.

My understanding, based upon the start time, is that the day will end at 2am GMT. If I am wrong, I should be grateful to stand corrected. If I am right, I should be back around 3 hours before the close of the day and will hopefully be around until the deadline.

[Kath]

Perhaps it might be an idea to try and lynch the wolves we know reside within the player list before we go panicking about those who may or may not exist beyond it? After all, if we lynch two wolves and the game is still going on we'll have our answer anyway. Bb is probably here simply for distraction, and look how well it's working!

Originally Posted by Sauce

But I might as well have been running around in lime-green lycra tights brandishing a beetroot and shouting "wibble" at the top of my voice for all the good that it has done raising it.

I have nothing to say over this, it's purely there in case people missed it in the nice long post Sauce just made. The images!

[mormegil]

Quickly weighing in on Nogrod's questions of SpM. I doubt that we can use such information to incriminate him as he would behave the same way regarding this: innocent or guilty. That is not to say he is innocent but I don't believe that this is cause to alarm. I doubt Fea would have SpM be a wolf.

I say we lynch Fea and form our own order and rules here!

[Mithalwen]

All I can say is that it is a longstanding convention that people who are playing/modding are the only participants in a WW game. Observers may comment when all is over but only Newbies tend to shove in their oar during a game... and Bethberry is more or less the complete opposite of a Newbie. She does have a mischievous streak and may think that anything goes ..... in this game .... she could be Fea's unnamed sidekick (the fact that she said "he" may be a blind) or she is a wild card...hmmm

So much to ponder and now so little time....

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I say we lynch Fea and form our own order and rules here!

Now there's a fun idea - lynch the mod the very first day!! That's the one way to ensure she won't be the one winning at the end!

[Kath]

Oh! And thanks for the deadline Sauce.

[the phantom]

We can vote to lynch Beth or Fea, by the way. (though I wouldn't recommend it)

In the rules about votes it says-

All votes should be posted as

++PLAYER NAME

or

--PLAYER NAME

That makes it look like we must vote for players only, but it doesn't say "must"- it says "should". So technically we can vote to lynch Beth or Fea, just in case you were wondering.

But what we don't know is whether or not votes for non-players count. The rules don't say.

Not that I'd vote for a non-player anyway.

[The Saucepan Man]

++ The Phantom

Because he has spent an inordinate amount of time telling us that we should not lynch him today.

Because he is Fea's obvious choice of Wolf. And Fea likes double bluffs. So the obvious might well be the truth.

Because, as he has admitted, his logical analysis is of little use to us in this game.

And because the idea of lynching the phantom on the first day amuses me.

I do, of course, reserve the right to change my vote when I return ...

[Mithalwen]

Wibble is my line ....

And I don't have any grudges against any players .... As far as I know all issues are resolved (lets face it, I am not someone who conceals such things well...) ..... and so far it is one of those spells when the planets are in the right conjunction for me not to be squabbling with the Pan Man (yet) possibly the strangest factor of this game.


I am inclined to think that the Pan Man is innocent because it makes more sense ... it would be a bit risky and attention seeking for so early in the discussion. But while I am good at spotting a cobblerish Pan Man I find it hard to read him when he plays a less ambiguous role .... but I could vote for him to maintain the tradition if you so wish .. but I don't think it would be a great choice ...

The phantom is not a priority either ... he is being quite constructive... and tooo obvious.... but he and Fea have such a convoluted history .... argh .... make me the village contortionist I am getting into knots...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Everybody works for their side to win. That doesn't specifically mean that anybody is working together. However if a wolf wins, both wolves are allowed bragging rights, just as if a villager wins, all villagers may claim victory.

As for Bethberry, she was an unexpected bonus. I didn't ask her to post. But her post nevertheless amused me a lot. You can vote for her. You can vote for me. You won't know how such voting will affect the game unless you try it.

And the end of day is, for any still confused, just under six hours from now.

Also, my unnamed cohort in crime is not a player, nor has he posted. He has no bearing in this game.

[Mithalwen]

Now I am on the horns of a dilemma.....

I was just about to think better of my whim to vote BB (BethBerry is watching us!), as being too frivolous (though in the spirit of htis random game!) and plump for either Kath as my preselected random person or Noggin for being suspiciously quiet relative to timezone (mean maybe since he has two games concurrent) ... but now..it seems we can alter our destiny perhaps .....

I do have to go.... v soon ..oh...........

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Fea, you are a minx, a rascal, a devil, and a scamp and you are lashing my poorly ratiocination.

For this reason I will be unhappy with my vote, but as long as I accept that I could not possibly be happy with any vote then I will be able to sleep tonight.

Back.....soon!

[Mithalwen]

++Bethberry

I can't resist but though it be madness there is a little method in it... I do have to go now. I feel a vote for any of my other random suspects might be too significant at this early stage. I feel votes are going to be very spread out and two or three might be enough to seal someone's fate.... on this most random of first days I shall be completely random .... and risk the consequences if my fellow villagers think I am copping out... which is a valid perspective but heigh ho....

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by SPM

Because he has spent an inordinate amount of time telling us that we should not lynch him today.

When?

I've done that in many villages, but not this one.

In post #35 I answer Di when she asks about Fea making me a WW.

In post #58 morm has raised the question again, but from a more specific angle, and I answer him.

In post #66 I tell Ang (who voted for me) that his quest to make me a Fenris wolf is pointless.

That's it, Sauce. When you consider that I've posted, by my count, 16 times today, I've hardly spent any time at all trying to convince people not to lynch me. And when I do say anything, it is always in direct response to someone questioning me. Would you have me ignore everyone, oh wise one?

Now, I don't mind you voting for me, but please... use real reasons and not made up ones with no truth to them. That reason is ridiculous. You can do better.

Originally Posted by SPM

Because he is Fea's obvious choice of Wolf. And Fea likes double bluffs. So the obvious might well be the truth.

I've already adressed that. It's highly unlikely.

Originally Posted by SPM

Because, as he has admitted, his logical analysis is of little use to us in this game.

That is true of everyone, so that's hardly an argument.

Originally Posted by SPM

And because the idea of lynching the phantom on the first day amuses me.

That is the only good reason you give.

If you decide you don't want to change your vote and stick with me, then I would ask that you would repost your vote with your only real reason listed and all that other useless drivel omitted.

And quite frankly, your first reason for guilt is so incredibly far off base and wrong that I almost want to suspect you because of it. Clean up your act, Sauce, this is subpar thus far.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++LITTLEMANPOET

There is no reasoning other than that I know Fea would like to have you as a wolf, and also because there are only a couple of people I'm willing to rule out immediately.

You ain't one of them.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am a little wary of LMP .. not because I think him guilty but because of previous form of using WW to settle scores...

I have but one score to settle. Well, actually two, but I can't take out the moderator for having been the one who caught me out way back in game 4 (or was it 3?). So I must make my (revocable) revenge vote:

++ANGUIREL

[Boromir88]

Eomer:

I think Nogrod is not a wolf. Why would a wolf bother stirring the pot on the first day and making that point against SPM? It only draws attention.

When Nogrod's a wolf, he's capable of doing anything, as unwolvish, or unprecedented as it might be. Don't under-estimate him.

Sauce:

If we are basing our ideas on Fea having some hand in the choice of Wolves, then my inclination is to look at those most capable of messing with the villager's heads. In that regard, the phantom, Diamond, Boro and Roa are the ones that spring to mind.

I can easily add you to this list. If memory serves me correctly, you were quite able to manipulate and mess with innocents mind when you were a wolf Mr. Sauce.

[the phantom]

I forgot- there's another reason your vote disappoints me, SPM. Remember reading this-

Originally Posted by Esty

Well, we could tackle the matter from the other side - each of us declares whether or not s/he is a werewolf! Really, people - are we going to trust phantom's word that he isn't?!

Originally Posted by me

...actually you should trust my word that I'm not a WW, for a reason that is obvious and yet probably not known except perhaps by one or two observant individuals who have been in many villages with me.

When I said "one or two observant individuals who have been in many villages with me" I thought you were one of them. Have you not noticed anything today that would make you trust my words? If not, oh well, maybe it's not as obvious as I thought. I'll have to tell you what it was after this is over. You'll laugh when you hear it.

Or maybe you do know what I mean but you're a nasty WW! But I'm leaving you alone today, so it doesn't matter.

[the phantom]

I'll be back before the deadline. Have fun.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Since my day is soon ending, I must make a decision soon. I've counted the votes so far; here are the results:

2 votes for Phantom

1 vote each for:
Boromir
Bb
LMP
Anguirel

It would be logical to cast a vote for one of them, as adding yet another candidate would only scatter votes more and make then less effective. Since Bb is not a player, voting for her is not logical. For some strange reason, I do not yet mistrust Phantom. I have no reason yet to mistrust LMP or Ang. I'm not sure about Boro - he's an experienced player with quite a few games under his belt.

Vote still pending due to indecision...

[Bêthberry]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

All I can say is that it is a longstanding convention that people who are playing/modding are the only participants in a WW game. Observers may comment when all is over but only Newbies tend to shove in their oar during a game... and Bethberry is more or less the complete opposite of a Newbie. She does have a mischievous streak and may think that anything goes ..... in this game .... she could be Fea's unnamed sidekick (the fact that she said "he" may be a blind) or she is a wild card...hmmm

So much to ponder and now so little time....

Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a min-u-te!

This is a game thread? This is the game?

It looked like an RPG discussion thread. How was I to tell the difference? Idle banter without votes, lines thrown in like Fordim's song themes. Mods, mods! Confusion! Confusion between fora/forumtari/forumtiri.

*shuffles sheepishly over to discussion thread* Don't tell me. I'll find character posts over there. Sheesh. No wonder I don't join these games.

[Nogrod]

Even though we're playing in the fun-mode for Day1 - and wouldn't think it bad if we continued with that tone on the later Days even if we started playing more "seriously" (meaning not less fun but with some actual points made other than ww-history or ranting over previous encounters) - I still think we might try to come up with some reasoned decisions. I've had a really busy day and had have not so much time to stick in here as I would have wanted. And yes I admit, I have been the not-fun one as I haven't been able to gear up to the feeling due mostly to myself having to share my computer with Lommy today and needing to see to her little sisters social needs too...

But really, in this game everything seems possible. If we just look at the conventional idea of at least two of us being wolves and concentrating on it, so how would they act? At least one will surely be in the "safe-mode" if not both of them on Day1. What I mean: we may joke and poke each other but those being wolves will wish to carry the day and not to lose. So: they will mind their steps.

If Fea has made some picks or luck has so dictated, there will be also loud and funny wolves (minding her/his steps too within the limits of personal ranting around). In both ways this seems probable as most of you have been really entertaining (it's quite rare that I laugh out aloud in front of a computer screen...), so there is enough to choose from.

I might stick to my suspicion on Spm but I will try to make one last look before I vote and go. Here in Finland we have passed midnight and I have to wake up early...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

+offers Bb a glass of nice fresh in-character milk

[Kath]

Excuse me while I beat my computer.

Due to technical problems I'm going to have to (try to) vote now.

++THE PHANTOM

I'm bandwaggoning and I know it. Thought I might try a change in style since with the level of madness in this game it won't do any harm! Reasoning? Why not? After all, some have voted for Bb who isn't even in the game. I had half a mind to vote for Rune and see what happened. But I took my own advice and decided to go for someone we know is playing. It's random, but biased, based on the names that popped up at me when I thought about the thread.

Now, let's hope this actually posts.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Grrrr - not being able to edit is definitely a downside of this game! I hope the fact that I inadvertantly typed a + instead of an * at the beginning of my in-character post doesn't confuse anyone. That was not a vote for Bêthberry! Here comes my vote now, based on several next-to-nothings:

++BOROMIR


...heading off for random dreams...

[Boromir88]

Based upon several psuedo-scientific studies I have done, here are my findings.

We have 13 members here (including myself). 1 wolf was chosen randomly, another was hand-selected. Therefor we have the random probability and chosen probability respectively. The chosen probability consists of several factors including (though they may vary from applicability of one person to the the next)....What kind of wolf Fea would want, how long/short it's been since that person was a wolf last (if ever), the climate of their geographical location ('hot' weathered places people tend to be more easily angered/violent...thus more likely to be wolves than cold or mild weathered climates), the order and amount of posting, and the norms of the society a person lives in. Plus various other random factors. Therefor, stated below is the probability (random, chosen, and mean) of each villager (excluding myself):

Anguirel:
random: all palyers have the same chance of being the random chosen wolf...so 1/12 or 8.3%

fits some of the categories, like the kind of wolf Fea would want, lives in a hotter climate, also a hostile/traitorous society.
chosen: 87%
Mean: 47.65%

Diamond18:
random: 8.3%
chosen: fits nearly every criteria to a T...99.9%
Mean: 54.1%

Eomer:
random: 8.3%
chosen: high probablility of being picked by Fea, unpredictable behaviour...52.6%
Mean: 30.45%

Estelyn
random: 8.3%
chosen: Very pleasant personality and and a pleasant/idealistic location. She may be chosen by Fea for these reasons, so 22%
Mean: 15.15%

Kath
random: 8.3%
chosen: Nothing suspicious about the climate she lives, nor the persona of a werewolf. Much like Estelyn only even less probable at 15%
Mean: 11.65%

littlemanpoet
random: 8.3%
chosen: Lives in such a good environment and society of pleasantness...it's suspicious. Plus several other traits...84.7%
Mean: 46.5%

Mithalwen
random: 8.3%
chosen: Questionable/chaotic environment with all her secretive 'assignments.' Plus needs to redeem herself from past wolfing experiences. High probability of 92.3%
Mean: 50.3%

mormegil
random: 8.3%
chosen: Nice location...wish I was in Utah, although Nevada is better. Anyway, low probability of 12.67%
Mean: 10.485%

Nogrod
random: 8.3%
chosen: Would be a good wolf choice by Fea, and tough to nab him...other than that doesn't fit well into the other criteria...25%
Mean: 16.65%

Roa_Aoife
random: 8.3%
chosen: High likelihood...seems similar to Mithalwen so one or the other is likely a wolf....93%
Mean: 50.65%

the phantom:
random: 8.3%
chosen: says he isn't so...0%
Mean: 4.15% or virtually nil

The Saucepan Man
random: 8.3%
chosen: fits into some categories, not so good in other an even...50%
Mean: 29.15%

(note: there is a +/- 12.446% margin of error)

Based off these statitistics the highest wolf probabilities are:

Diamond
Roa
Mithalwen

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, it’s still unclear to me whether the Wolves are on the same “side” and that both win if one survives to the end. Fea’s “clarification” here is ambiguous, but suggests that they are on the same side. So I guess that’s the best that we are going to get.

Phantom, when I re-read your posts, I received the very clear impression that you were taking every opportunity to suggest that lynching you would not be a good idea. Which leads me to wonder whether lynching you might in fact be a very good idea. Particularly as, whatever misapprehensions that I may have been under in my first post, the following still holds true:

Originally Posted by me

We have no Gifteds to worry about. Since it is more than likely that we will kill a few innocents along the way to victory, we should not worry about doing so. It’s not like we will be killing our Seer or anything. Innocents, therefore, should not be afraid to die while we still have a significant advantage in numbers.

My reasoning for voting for you should not really have provoked such a vociferous defence in an innocent villager, particularly as I made clear that I may well change my vote before the day is out.

I am beginning to reconsider that now.

Yes, you would be an obvious and predictable choice for a Wolf by Fea. Which is what, to my mind, makes it such a distinct possibility.

Originally Posted by the phantom

When I said "one or two observant individuals who have been in many villages with me" I thought you were one of them. Have you not noticed anything today that would make you trust my words? If not, oh well, maybe it's not as obvious as I thought. I'll have to tell you what it was after this is over. You'll laugh when you hear it.

I have read your words very carefully and seen much which has given me cause for thought. In a game of Werewolf, however, it is very dangerous to take anything said at face value. As I said, you would be one of the first players on my list of Wolves capable of messing with villagers’ heads. Still, if you are messing with my head, you are doing so successfully, as this gives me reason to reconsider yet again.

And while on that subject …

Originally Posted by Boro

If memory serves me correctly, you were quite able to manipulate and mess with innocents mind when you were a wolf Mr. Sauce.

Actually, I am not very good at messing with people’s heads. If I am innocent, I tend to post whatever theories or opinions I have at the time. If I am a Wolf, I work through ruthlessness and deception. But I am ill-equipped when it comes to the type of serious head-messing that Fea and TP are capable of.

If the truth be known, I hope that the phantom is not a Wolf. I will change my vote if a better option presents itself. But, right now, he’s about the only villager that I have any reasonable basis for suspecting.

Btw - going by Fea's further clarification on the timing, the day will end at 3am GMT. Which makes it unlikely, although possible, that I will still be here at the deadline.

[Nogrod]

Preview
Quote:Originally Posted by SpmFirst, the Wolves will be looking to kill each other, as well as killing innocent villagers. Indeed, I would go so far as to suggest that a Wolf's prime target at the moment will be the other Wolf.

Quote:Originally Posted by SpmAs regards the suspicion cast in my direction for making a pre-game enquiry on this matter, it is something that I would wish to establish whether I was innocent or a Wolf. If I were a Wolf, however, I would not have shared the answer to my enquiry but rather allow the original assumption that the Wolves were playing as a team (albeit without knowing each other's identity) to stand.

So establishing it here?

But the main point: is this good reasoning or lycantrophe-reasoning?What do I mean? Firstly I have done this kind of thing in few games earlier when I have been a villain. Make a revelation about the game-dynamics that is making the wolves more vulnerable - and gain a lot of trust to yourself!

Secondly I'm not sure whether this is even so daring as it seems to be more undecided one. Is this "shared information" actually bad for the wolves? More probably it might be an easy and safe piece of information to let loose? Someone would ask for it anyway so why not to strike first? Exactly the same line of thought one of my forefathers went through when he was a villain...

Thirdly it's over vague as it only points to general dynamics of the game and is not pointing to anyone in particular. So a safe bet to look like helping person but still not committing oneself to any real point-making about the others (okay, it was early in the game and this point might be a bit flawed by it, but I don't think totally flawed).

Well, these seem the best of reasons I can come up with on this weirdest of the Day1's I've ever seen...

If I'm not counting the very words of Spm himself with tp... That would indeed prove the point: a wolf would like to get rid of the other one to gain a control over the Nightly kills... and there seems to be a chance that tp is lynched. And surely Spm's points are not without a merit.

----------------------------------
I had some bad problems with the Downs (it was down for a while and ate most of my writing that is partly resurrected here) and I really need to get to sleep...

So

++Spm

I know I should tactically act differently as I have been gaining some suspicions (light or not - that will not count on most Day1's - and Roa will be just happy to vote for me too) and can't hang around any more. But I shall stick to my principles of voting with reasons, even mediocre ones, when better ones are not available.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm here!

Okay, so to begin; forget the voting record. We don't need it. There are other things we can look at. That said:

Originally Posted by Ang

Roa_Aoife - all I can say is whatever side Roa's on, Fea will be angling to break her victorious track record...

Hey! I've lost before. Ask Nogrod- he was there. Once, sure, but it still counts. And it was completely my fault. Curse my boldness! It was the end of me!

Originally Posted by diamond

Diamond18 is not evil. She has never been evil. She will never be evil. So let it be written, so let it be done. Or not done, depending on how you are interpreting the word "it" in this context. If "it" is "a moderator assigning an evil role to Diamond" then "not done" is the proper phraseology.

Granted, this is a bit of a shot in the dark, but I've never liked a hasty defense. Especially when it comes before any accusation. So Diamond's never been a wolf before. That just makes her more appealing to be on a short list of candidates. And it makes a hasty slip up quite plausible.

Of course, I could just fall back on my old nemesis, and vote for Nogrod, but he's too much fun to kill right away.

And again, phantom's pessimism and insistence that there's nothing we can really do irks me, especially after he started the day with a statement about secret plans. So we have no voting record. Cry me a river. There's more to werewolf than voting records and kill counts. We are not as powerless as you make it out to be.

And who was it that suggested villagers were expendable for now? I read it and now I can't seem to find it again. Anyways, whoever said it, that's a silly idea. Why should we be? It's not like we're dying to protect a gifted. That would make sense. The only thing we'd be protecting are the wolves, and I know we don't want that.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And who was it that suggested villagers were expendable for now? I read it and now I can't seem to find it again. Anyways, whoever said it, that's a silly idea. Why should we be? It's not like we're dying to protect a gifted. That would make sense. The only thing we'd be protecting are the wolves, and I know we don't want that.

I have no time to search for this but I remember the statement as well as I raised my eyebrows to it too. I have a vague feeling it was Spm... not a bad co-incidence if it was? You may correct this if I'm wrong.

[Roa_Aoife]

Ah, thankyou SPM for re-posting yourself. (I cross-posted. And before you start screaming about the time lapse, I was called away to dinner.)

So, as of right now, my top voting candidates are phantom, SPM, and Diamond. It may actually end up depending on a coin toss. I for one have never bothered to go for or against the general voting and just vote as my concious dictates.

Anyone have grudges against me? I don't remember....

[Diamond18]

Boro....

The chosen probability consists of several factors including (though they may vary from applicability of one person to the the next)....What kind of wolf Fea would want, how long/short it's been since that person was a wolf last (if ever), the climate of their geographical location ('hot' weathered places people tend to be more easily angered/violent...thus more likely to be wolves than cold or mild weathered climates), the order and amount of posting, and the norms of the society a person lives in. Plus various other random factors.

Diamond18:
random: 8.3%
chosen: fits nearly every criteria to a T...99.9%
Mean: 54.1%

I live in Wisconsin, and it's November. So I protest. Make it 90%, at most.

[The Saucepan Man]

Nogrod, as it turns out, it seems that I was quite possibly labouring under a misapprehension. Not sure how that affects your reasoning, though, as I suppose it could all be an elaborate bluff.

Originally Posted by Roa

Anyways, whoever said it, that's a silly idea. Why should we be? It's not like we're dying to protect a gifted. That would make sense. The only thing we'd be protecting are the wolves, and I know we don't want that.

It was me. Although my point was that, since a number of innocents are almost certain to die along the way and there is no danger of mistakenly lynching a Gifted, innocents should not be afraid to die. Therefore, vociferous protests of innocence and laborious defences are likely to be twitching my radar more than usual (cue Wolves to make no effort at defending themselves …).

Here are my thoughts on my fellow villagers so far:

Anguirel: Has come up with some good ideas for finding a Wolf in this crazy and unpredictable village, not least the “What would Fea do?” analysis. But his vote for the phantom was rather specious. And I share Mith’s concerns over his attempts to curry her favour. Nevertheless, he’s good value.

Boromir88: Another one who seems keen to sway us against voting for him. Has come up with the occasional comment and some theories, not least his highly unscientific probability assessment , none of which really assist in identifying a Wolf. But surely the “probability assessment is just too silly for a Wolf. Then again, perhaps that is what he wants us to think …

Diamond18: Seemingly relishing a grudge match, with Boro in her sights. Little else to go on.

Eomer of the Rohirrim: Has commented occasionally, but not at length and nothing really substantive. Dangerous when he’s like this. Voted out of the blue for Elempi on the basis that he is a likely choice of Wolf by Fea (fair enough, actually).

Estelyn Telcontar: Seemingly still in “in-character banter” mode. Hardly surpirising in the circumstances, though. Little reasoning for her Boro vote, but he’s making me nervous too, I must admit. Worth watching, but nothing too suspicious so far.

Kath: Seems to have made some effort to suggest ways of actually finding a Wolf. But went with the developing phantom bandwaggon, which might suggest Wolfishness if the phantom is not a Wolf.

Littlemanpoet: Has said little of use and voted randomly, other than suggesting himself as a possible lynch candidate in a manner suggesting that he couldn’t possibly be a Wolf. Voted for Anguirel on the basis of a grudge.

Mithalwen: Some helpful thoughts. And then a vote for a non-villager. I suppose, given how little the voting will tell us, it’s not a major crime. And perhaps understandable in the circumstances. But still …

Mormegil: Much the same as Eomer, although has given a reason for his limited participation.

Nogrod: Characteristically and valiantly trying to steer us down a course of reasoning and logic. Against the odds in this village, I must say. Then again, this is standard Noggie behaviour, whether innocent or not. Jumped on my misconceived attempts at strategy rather quickly, resulting in a vote for me.

Roa_Aoife: Not really enough to go on at the moment. I like her optimism about catching a Wolf, though.

the phantom: ‘Nuff said on this subject (by me at least).

Bêthberry: Who?

Hmm, it seems that Boro and Elempi might be viable alternative options to the phantom.

Voting to date:
Anguirel: ++the phantom (1)
Diamond: ++Boromir88 (1)
SpM: ++the phantom (2)
Mithalwen: ++Bêthberry (1)
Eomer: ++Littlemanpoet (1)
Littlemanpoet: ++Anguirel (1)
Kath: ++the phantom (3)
Estelyn: ++Boromir88 (2)
Nogrod: ++SpM (1)

It would appear that Kath, Esty and Mithalwen at least are unlikely to be returning.

[Roa_Aoife]

Kath: Seems to have made some effort to suggest ways of actually finding a Wolf. But went with the developing phantom bandwaggon, which might suggest Wolfishness if the phantom is not a Wolf.

It doesn't matter if phantom is a wolf or not- Kath wouldn't know anymore than any of us, regardless of her role.

[Diamond18]

Muwah ha ha ha! Muwah ha ha ha ha!

Random bursts of maniacal laughter. Something about this game just makes me want to do that.