Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Which brings me to Elempi ...

Well, it’s not really a spat. I find him suspicious and he finds it tiresome that I should find him suspicious as it is so passé. I find it rather tiresome too, in fact, but suspicions are stubborn blighters once aroused.

My dear Elempi, your theory is perfectly plausible. Except for one thing. If the phantom and I were both Wolves, and had identified each other as such, then there is no way that either one of us would wish to see the other outlast him, bragging rights or no bragging rights.

I am rather inclined to view that finely wrought but (ultimately) implausible and potentially damaging theory of yours as a further sign in your guilt, Elempi.

There you have it. I am now convinced that Espiem's suspicions of me have less to do with the facts of this game and more to do with his inclinations. Therefore I'm done engaging Espiem as nothing I say will affect his inclination. Attack away, Espiem, I'm more than tired of it, and will not engage. You see, this is a game, and games are supposed to be fun, and this has stopped being fun. Okay, moving on.

As I said at the head of my theory post, I wasn't sure I believed my theory, and what has been said tends to reinforce that the phantoms was speaking the truth, which does not, mind you, make him pure as the driven snow; more like pure as roadside snow in March. I guess I'm just not used to innocents, IF he's innocent, being more devious than (or as least as devious as) the werewolves. I guess I've learned something then. Thanks. Be that as it may, I'm going to follow through on the one thing that has gotten corroboration from a number of fellow players, and that is the suspiciousness of Eomer.

So my vote is changing based on these corroborations:

--Diamond

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

[Roa_Aoife]

Borrowing phantom's list:

SPM for lmp (1)
Eomer for Kath (1)
lmp for Di (1)
Ang for Eomer (1)
Mith for Nogrod (1)
Esty for Di (2)
Mith take back Nogrod (0)
Mith for Eomer (2)
Phantom for Eomer (3)
Nogrod for Kath (2)
Kath for Esty (1)
Roa for Di (3)
Lmp takes back Di (2)
Lmp for Eomer (4)

I have to say that I'm not terribly convinced of Eomer's guilt, and I'm still not sure why everyone is voting for him. Certainly if he comes out innocent, I'll be far more wary of the people who seem to have jumped in quite suddenly. (And phantom, I'm not buying that "ploy" routine for this one. Not that I was buying it before, but I'll more than just ignore it.)

[Diamond18]

And I don't like your hair.

Buh.... my hair? You don't like my little tiara? *sniffles*

Alright, I'm in the throes of backpain and all Adviled up, and I just sat down at the computer at 8 PM to find a veritable slew of posts to read through. Gods, you people are vociferous. I have to admit that I started skimming because you all lost me somewhere on the last page.

I have no idea who the wolves are. I have very little idea what's going on. I hurt. I'm useless, I know it. But I can't do anything about it today, since there's no way I'm going to make head or tails of all these posts in 20 minutes.

Phantom, you needn't warn me about my behavior being lynchable. Go back and read that phrase of mine which you quoted, interpreting it in its most literal sense, and you will find that warning me aginst such an endeavor is fruitless.

At any rate, I'm not a nervous wolf. You'll never find out if I'd make a good wolf or not, and I need hardly say why.

Okay, but I will. This is my last Werewolf game for what I think will be a very long time. I'm only in this one because it's Fea's game and I could not miss it. I'm an innocent -- and I drew all that attention to Diamond's Rule because I'm looking back on my career from the standpoint of one saying goodbye. This is it. I'm innocent, always was, always will be rememebered (if remembered) as being perpetually clean as the driven snow. If a little wicked at times.

Looks like it's me or Eomer toDay. And, what ho, Eomer was the other chap on my grudge list of two!

++Eomer

I'd vote for myself if it wasn't Eomer on the chopping block across from me. Too good to pass up.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Diamond

Buh.... my hair? You don't like my little tiara? *sniffles*

Nope, always hated it, always will, though I'll certainly miss seeing it werewolf games. (Even though I probably won't be around much myself.) It would be such a shame to find you really innocent and having never known the pleasures of being lupine.

[Diamond18]

I channelled all my evil energies into the two games I Moderated.

If you ever see a picture of Daffy in a tiara, do be sure to send it my way.

(Now I'm going go whimper in the corner and curse the day I decided to lug heavy boxes of books around whilst wearing heels.)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Day has ended. Eomer, love of my life, you shall be missed.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

They all knew. They could no longer deny her renewed - her deadly - role in their lives. They could do nothing... only pray, and only play along. They heard her whisper once again upon the wind, the whisper of insanity, a desperate artist, a sweet, sensual, maniacally disturbed and nightly composing the lives of her subjects as those within a play, murmuring softly to herself in the moonlight that her world, the world of these fated villagers, the world of these poor souls, was nothing more than a stage, with them nothing but players, each with a role to carry out, a part to play, and an exit to be written and performed. The long despairing village tried their level best to discount her... she was there... it would help nothing to dwell on her madness, yet others saw there could yet be method to it. They could not fall to endless tears... not yet... there was time. The Dark Lady had not yet won... so long as a single innocent soul survived, she could not win.

They reasoned, or tried. The friendships of a lifetime crumbled as accusations were slipped like silver daggers through the air and into innocent and guilty backs alike.

One name, just one, was spoken with great surety, and he that bore it tried, oh how he tried, and his words were beautiful, and his fight glorious, and his death utterly tragic.

"Traveller, you are new to us," spoke a man. "You met us with the evening and left us with the dawn, only to return again."

"I left," he responded, voice in dream, "to see my lady love."

"Is that so?" The village was afraid. Short-tempered. Uncertain. Cruel.

"Yes." He spat at their feet, glaring eye to eye, standing tall in the late afternoon shadows, and his skin burned gold in the sun.

"And where did you go, to see so fine a lady?" Merciless. He was finished. This had no meaning. Merely play. Torment. What answers would he give? What could he say to tell them what next they should do? Who amongst them would no longer be, once dawn broke the horizon and slowed the power of the Lady in the Tower? Could his next words have meaning? They wondered, and they prayed, and they knew they could not be certain.

He stood and shivered slightly, and his eyes became distant and he was silent 'til a stone flew through the air, whistling in the silence, and kissed his forehead with crimson affection. He glared, feeling no pain, and his dark eyes now glowed brilliantly in the twilight of evening.

"You would dare to doubt me my affections! Weak fools, you all," he seemed to grow suddenly in stature, and they withdrew in fear. "You would wilt in her presence, in her gaze, in her dark gaze, for my mistress' eyes are nothing like the sun. Her hair is midnight and her skin moonlight, and all I have is hers and she has me."

He rose, madness in his eyes, and attacked with bare claws, with wild abandon to defend himself from their hatred.

The single string music of a bow, the whistle of the arrow, the dull drum thud of impact, and he fell. HIs blood pooled around him and his lips parted, and once more, for the last time, he spoke, and it was with endless sadness as his last strength drained from him, and his eyes saw clear again, and he tried only to explain, to apologize, to ask them to understand. "My only love," he begged with final breath, "sprung from my only hate."

As her slave lay dying, the Dark Lady, high in her chambers, laughed to the sky.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

She came to him as he slept and they spoke, and he was afraid, but he stood tall on the cemetery bank upon which the moonlight slept sweetly. He heard no voice, but words made themselves clear to him, and her gown billowed in an unseen breeze, and her eyes were dark and colder than the soulless shadowed sky.

"What is this," he asked, and could not hear his voice, "which I see before me, speaking words I cannot hear with lips that move no more than the frozen stars that light us and call lie to this place? Come, let me clutch thee. I have thee not, and yet I see thee still. Art thou not, fatal vision, sensible to feeling as to sight? or art thou but a shadow of the mind, a false creation, proceeding from the heat-oppressed brain?"

"Tell me, poet, what you think you see."

"A lady - a spectress of deceit - a fearsome creature of the night. And..." he paused, sighed, "I glimpse before me that which will end me." The village slept, and the unhappy spirits slept uneasily in their graves, and the gravedigger dreamt of his death, and in his dream a child screamed, and a red-haired man looked blindly to his past, and a hound howled; and they returned to him, and a woman wept; and he heard the faint tap dance of rolling dice.

And when they woke at dawn, as though from enchantment, the village looked in resigned sadness upon the body of the gravedigger, lain carefully, with no signs of struggle, within his own grave, pale and peaceful, and a headstone lay upon the ground above him, and it read, carefully carved, 'To sleep, to risk to die... perchance in dream.'

[Diamond18]

I know it's early, but The Dark Lady said we could post, so....

I cannot express in mere words how happy I am that Eomer was a wolf. There's a bit of revenge I can lay to rest. I am almost sure that he was the hand picked wolf, I mean, he was the love of her life, eh?

But Elempi, why Elempi? I thought he was gathering some suspicion, enough to keep him alive. Hmm. I shall have to ponder this. After television, of course.

[Roa_Aoife]

Ah, the death of LMP. Why? To throw the obvious suspicion on SPM? Or to throw suspicion away from him?

*sigh* Back to my analysis, though they seem to be going unused. I was held up at work, so it's going to be a little while yet.

[the phantom]

THE LIVING-

Anguirel
Diamond18
Estelyn Telcontar
Kath
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Roa_Aoife
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

THE DEAD-

Boromir88 (innocent)- bravely faced the gallows on Day 1
mormegil (innocent)- bled by the WWs on Night 2
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)- outed by shrewd villagers on Day 2
littlemanpoet (innocent)- lain carefully in grave on Night 3

[the phantom]

SPM for lmp (1)
Eomer for Kath (1)
lmp for Di (1)
Ang for Eomer (1)
Mith for Nogrod (1)
Esty for Di (2)
Mith take back Nogrod (0)
Mith for Eomer (2)
tp for Eomer (3)
Nogrod for Kath (2)
Kath for Esty (1)
Roa for Di (3)
lmp take back Di (2)
lmp for Eomer (4)
Di for Eomer (5)

[the phantom]

So, lmp died.

lmp????

That seems like a weird choice.

Why was he killed, do you think?

And since I posted yesterday's votes, which votes do you think might be wolvish, and why?

First, do you honestly think Eomer was trying to kill his fellow WW? He certainly acted as if it was a sure thing that the WWs were doing this. I don't believe him. But if you do, then surely his vote for Kath indicates that Eomer thought Kath was the other WW.

If you want to read a post containing important Eomer thoughts from yesterday, his big list can be found in post #211.

And while we're on Kath- what's with her vote? She was in danger when she voted and rather than vote for one of the other leaders she threw away her vote on Esty.

[the phantom]

Oh, and in case anyone asks why I voted for Eomer so suddenly and without explanation, here's what I have to say to that.

First, keep in mind that Eomer was not on my innocent list. He was listed as "Maybe WWs, but I am starting to form opinions on them and will make up my mind eventually". So definitely don't say that he wasn't one of my suspects to begin with.

And then Eomer made post #211. In my mind, this was the post that made me willing to vote for him. Eomer's over-willingness to assume the reason for the kill was the "wolf-guns-for-wolf" idea set off alarms for me. He was hopping onto the train started by SPM and I and was running with it a bit too far, trying to lead us astray. And the fact that he caused the theory to implicate himself further incriminated him in my mind. In seemed like a WWish thing to do.

After reading that particular post, if you remember, I said this-

Note: I think it may prove to be telling one way or the other that Eomer has been all day today more than willing to assume that morm was killed because a WW thought that he was the other WW. Take from that what you will.

As you can see, Eomer had my attention at that point. My eye was on him.

After that, I took some time to explain my ploys/traps, and then it was time for me to rush off to work, so I quickly cast my vote for Eomer.

I certainly won't claim to have been sure of Eomer's guilt by any means, but I will say that I couldn't really think of anyone that I had particularly stronger suspicions of. He made me very uneasy. In addition, I trusted that Ang was (and is) an innocent and was willing to hop on board Ang's cause.

So there you go. That's why I voted for the evil Werewolf yesterday.

Also, if you want to take a look back at a couple of yesterday's posts, here are some places you may want to start-

SPM's post #180
lmp's list #208
Esty's list #201
Ang's list #207

[Roa_Aoife]

Estelyn Summary

Day 1
Post 1- Wonders if her vote will count if there aren't any bandwagons, doesn't know how to reach consensus, points out that SPM's plan means that Fea could play by herself

Post 2- Remark that we shouldn't trust phantom just because he says so, in character nonsense

Post 3- Reminds everyone of her 100% innocent record

Post 4- Also 100% winning streak

Post 5- "Moi?! On your lynch list? How did that happen?"

Post 6- Appreciation to Diamond, banter about being an attractive WW candidate

Post 7- "If it wouldn't give the wolves an advantage, lynching Bb would be a great idea!"

Post 8- Suggests lynching Boromir, Di, and Nogrod to solve their time conflict

Post 9- "Now there's a fun idea - lynch the mod the very first day!! That's the one way to ensure she won't be the one winning at the end!"

Post 10- Vote count, says she would vote for someone who already has a vote to make voting effective, voting Bb makes no sense, still trusts phantom, has no reason to mistrust LMP or Ang, worried about Boromir because "he's an experienced player with quite a few games under his belt."

Post 11- in character

Post 12- clarification on previous typo, votes Boromir "based on several next-to-nothings"

Day 2
Post 1- can't understand Fea's narration, but assumes it's there for a purpose, wonders if we will not know the role of the deceased, thinks we don't have a chance for logic in this game, thinks Fea was displeased with one of the wolves, says her vote for Boromir was statistically inevitable, doesn't think our accuracy will be any greater

Post 2- Says phantom's conclusion (post #164) makes her think of Diamond, doesn't believe in Diamond's rule

Post 3- Points to newbieness as reason for being quiet, is suspicious of Di, still trusts phantom

Post 4- thinks she was chosen due to the rarity of her presence, thinks she will be less calculable for the experts

Post 5- says next few posts will be for amusement

Post 6- WW, Books forum-style

Post 7- TiG Palantir of Fortune

Post 8- New Werewolves - Introduce Yourself Here

Post 9- Says she really can't think of anything constructive, posts her gutfeelings, trusts phantom, distrusts Di, uncertain about everyone else

Post 10- Votes Diamond

Post 11- corrects vote

[Roa_Aoife]

Analysis

Day 1 saw a whole lot of nothing from Estelyn. Her pessimism about our situation is similar to phantom's "pessimism," only hers is far more subtle and less attention getting. She also makes a point of stating multiple times that she trusts phantom, which I personally find odd. Rule No 1 of any WW game involving phantom is "Don't trust phantom, at least not until Day 2." Did she really trust the Ploy Master, or was she buddying up in attempt to appeal to his oh so large ego after he began noticing her lupine appeal?

She posted more than some others on day one, yet said the least out of everyone. I believe the term for this is frothiness, and frothiness is always worrying. It's a rather convenient place to hide, and she's managed to slip below the radar again. Nogrod said that one liners wouldn't be problem in this group, but Esty has a number of them. She also uses the old "Newbie Defense" saying that it's her inexperience in the game that causes both the quiet and the froth. She appeals to all our egos by saying that she's learning from us.

On Day 2, she continues with her pessimism about logic in this game. She also picks up on Di, and sticks with it through out the day, which is consistent, but makes me wonder if it's not a wolf picking up new prey. She conveniently and continuously points to the logic of others to make her case, posting nothing of her own reasoning.

What has me the most worried is her 10 post of the game, #105, where she briefly but systematically eliminates her choices for a vote. What bothers me is her reasoning. She actually wants to bandwagon on the leaders, thus continuing her lack of need for an actual case. She eliminates the main leader, phantom, with her statement of trust, then cuts out the other likely candidates, LMP and Ang, because she "has no reason to mistrust them." Boromir, on the other hand, has lots of experience and so is more dangerous. Her bizarre (to me, anyways) trust in phantom aside, the reasoning she uses to vote for Boromir is equally applicable to LMP and Ang, if not more so.

At this point in time, few people (namely Diamond) had any sort of case against Boromir, and it was mostly facetiousness. A safer vote could never be thrown.

[the phantom]

I haven't done exaustive Roa-style research on yesterday's quotes 'n votes, so this list here I'm giving is likely to change a bit later today after reading all of the information that the rest of you will no doubt bring up about what went on yesterday.

But for right now, my list...

COMPLETE ANGELS
Ang
Mith
Nogrod
the phantom
SPM

THE BETWEENERS
Kath
Roa

NEEDS TO BE EXAMINED CLOSELY
Esty
Di

(heh heh- I just noticed... this list is biased- all the guys are "angels" )

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by phantom

(heh heh- I just noticed... this list is biased- all the guys are "angels" )

Sexist.

[Roa_Aoife]

Oh, and the ever so popular list of opinions, because noone cares right now, but everyone will care when I'm dead:

(And I discount my self from the list because you should all know where I stand on that.)

Definitely innocent:
No one

Probably innocent:
Nogrod
Diamond
(Try not to have a heart attack, you two.)

Possibly wolves:
Everyone

Probably Wolves:
Estelyn
SPM

[Diamond18]

NEEDS TO BE EXAMINED CLOSELY
Esty
Di

Getting a bit forward, are we now?

[Diamond18]

Probably innocent:
Nogrod
Diamond
(Try not to have a heart attack, you two.)

I'll try, but....

Eeeeeeek!

Anyway, I'm working on my "Who Killed Limpy?" um, thingie, at the moment. He just seems like a rather odd choice for a kill, and so there has to be something there. But you know, I must get psyched up about this endeavor because it involves the reading of SpM posts. *faints*

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Roa

Sexist.

So it would seem.

Originally Posted by Roa

Probably Wolves:
Estelyn
SPM

SPM, eh? Does that mean you'll be doing one of your Roa-style examinations on him? I'd be interested in seeing one.

[the phantom]

Reasons for a WW kill-
1) To get someone who is suspicious of you out of the way.
2) To cast suspicion on those suspected by the victim.
3) To cause those who were not suspected by the victim to look innocent.
4) In order to leave no clear path to the WW. (the WW would be listed neither as suspicious or innocent with the victim)

If the WW killed based on #1 it implicates- Roa and Di

If the WW killed based on #2 it clears- Roa and Di

If the WW killed based on #3 it implicates- the phantom, SPM, and Mith

If the WW killed based on #4 it implicates- Nogrod, Kath, Ang, and Estelyn

And then past these more basic conclusions is a layer of bluffing which would make the opposite true in each case.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by phantom

one of your Roa-style examinations on him

You know, I learned that style from Ang of all people in my first game, WWJIII. He was a werewolf, in the end, but the tool still proved useful. (Helped me catch Valier.)

Originally Posted by Di

But you know, I must get psyched up about this endeavor because it involves the reading of SpM posts.

If you're going to do a "me-style" analysis on SPM, then I'll take this opportunity to hit the sack. (I was trying to psych myself up as well- my goodness, that's a lot of work.) If not, then I'll be happy to stay up and actually work on it. Or you take Day 1 and I'll take Day 2, or something of that sort.

[the phantom]

I'll take SPM's day 3 posts.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I'll take SPM's day 3 posts.

Har, har.

[Diamond18]

If you do Day 1, I'll do Day 2.

I have to re-read Day 2 anyway, since I had to skim a lot at the end of yesterDay.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Dear me, Roa's analysis almost makes me scared of myself!

Let me say one thing now, then I will not repeat it. Any "frothiness" (I love that word, Roa! ) in my posts is there because I fully intend to have fun in this game. I joined it because it was to be simple, with none of the complicated roles and changing characters that have been so prevalent in many WW games. If my playfulness gets me suspected and lynched, so be it. But as the song says, "Girls just wanna have fun."

Actually, so far my playing has produced a balanced result - one negative rep, one positive rep, one lynch vote, one plea to keep me alive for my entertainment value. Why should I change anything...

Now, to get down to toDay's business: I'm glad we have found one of the werewolves, though it makes finding the second one more difficult statistically. We do, however, now have data to analyze. The problem is that any conclusions to be made are a matter of interpretation.

Votes for Eomer: Ang, Mith, phantom, LMP, Di Of those, LMP is proven innocent by his death. Only one werewolf is left to have killed him. So that werewolf can no longer be going for a fellow werewolf.

If one of the votes for Eomer came from a fellow werewolf, Ang, Mith, phantom, and Di are the suspects. There is, of course, the possibility that they are only shrewd players who had his measure from familiarity with his playing style.

The primary question now is: Who killed Elempi? That is the remaining werewolf. Was it SPM with his constant feud? He did vote for him yesterDay. I will have to look at LMP's previous posts more closely to see if he was suspecting someone and had to be killed before the remaining WW was discovered.

[Roa_Aoife]

SPM Summary

Day 1
Post 1- "Wolves are in competition" theory, isn't worried about wolves learning anything new from it, since any wolf should have figured it out, suggests the wolves prime target will be each other, believes that a wolf must be the lone survivor to win, agrees with Ang that we have all the cards, says innocents shouldn't worry about dying, says he has little to go on, is wary of any suggestion to focus attention on any one villager

Post 2- the "One vote apiece" plan

Post 3- Responsive post: To Esty- We're essentially flipping coins anyways, To Morm- doesn't think that the tie must necessarily be two-way; To Ang- his knowledge is due to pre-game enquiries

Post 4- rethinks point about ties, concedes that morm may be right

Post 5-
• Doesn't think the day has been productive, says no one has bothered to think about whether the wolves are working together or alone,
• says he would have made his inquiry whether he was a wolf or an innocent, and that as a wolf, he would have kept it to himself,
• recants 13-way tie plan,
• thinks that the players most capable of messing with our heads are the likeliest wolf choices,
• agrees with Nogrod that everyone here makes a good wolf choice, agrees with Ang that one Wolf was completely random.
• Says he holds no grudges and doesn't know who would hold a grudge against him
• Always suspects LMP, Eomer, Morm, and phantom (THREE ARE DEAD, LOOK OUT PHANTOM!)
• Thinks that both Boromir and phantom have directed a lot of time telling everyone they're innocent

Post 6- Votes phantom
"Because he has spent an inordinate amount of time telling us that we should not lynch him today.
Because he is Fea's obvious choice of Wolf. And Fea likes double bluffs. So the obvious might well be the truth.
Because, as he has admitted, his logical analysis is of little use to us in this game.
And because the idea of lynching the phantom on the first day amuses me."

Post 7- Insistence that it's uncertain that the wolves are working together, response to phantom's defense http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=112

Post 8- To Nogrod- "as it turns out, it seems that I was quite possibly laboring under a misapprehension." (Not sure what he's referring to.)
Clarification about expendable villagers statement, say professions of innocence and heated defenses are going to look suspicious to him
List of villagers and reactions:
Ang= slightly suspicious, but good value
Boro= can't tell if he finds him suspicious or not
Di= nothing to go on
Eomer= Dangerously quiet
Estelyn= Not really suspicious
Kath= suggestion of wolfishness in vote
LMP= useless and suspicious
Mith= Less suspicious than most
Morm= See Eomer
Nogrod= Nogrod
Roa= good optimism
Phantom= really suspicious
Vote Tally

Post 9- Response to Roa, agrees that traditional uses of voting record are not viable

Post 10- Says that a Kath-wolf voting for tp makes him look innocent, but this is hypothetical, since phantom is his prime suspect

Post 11- Says he may vote for Boromir, but is leaning towards LMP

Post 12- Vote record
Says phantom has made solid contributions, while LMP has not, doesn't like the reasoning behind his vote for Diamond, says Fea would likely pick him for a wolf, retracts phantom vote, votes LMP
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=131

Post 13- Vote record

Post 14- Says he may have voted Boromir had he seen his vote before his retraction

Post 15- Says he will hang around till the end of the Day

[Roa_Aoife]

Analysis of SPM on Day 1

The first thing that jumped out at me was his stance on phantom, which changed quite suddenly. Between the attack on phantom's defense, and SPM's change in vote, Phantom is silent. There was nothing to cause SPM to drop his vote, especially in the rather nonchalant manner in which he does it. It makes it seem like the whole thing was smoke and mirrors, with no substance at all.

Also, his post #131 bears heavy scrutiny. His reasons for voting LMP are heavily flawed at best and completely bogus at worst. He said himself that heavy statements of innocence would attract his attention, and Diamond did this more often than phantom did, to be sure. Yet when LMP used that reasoning to vote for Diamond, SPM found it a suitable reason to vote for his lynching. He also didn't like that LMP had voted based on a grudge, which numerous others had done during the day. It comes across, to me at least, as a heavy charade.

He also bears the same muted pessimism as Esty. He keeps hinting that we're hopeless, and that there's no room for logic here, with out ever actually stating it. He also keeps pushing his "the wolves are at each other's throats" idea through all of it. Why? What purpose did it serve?

Personally, I think Nogrod was on the right track.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm going to go back and check all of LMP's posts to see if he was on to anyone.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, too many posts to list individually, so I will sum up what I have found in LMP's posts and voting:

#241 was his last post; in it he exonerated SPM of any real suspicion, saying that their spats were just the usual. He is somewhat suspicious of the Phantom, but his suspicion of Eomer resulted in a change of his vote, away from Di to Eomer. It would seem, then, that neither SPM nor Di had reason to dispense of him.

#226 expounds his reasons for suspecting both SPM and Phantom.

#212, his first vote yesterDay for Diamond.

#208: His list - this could be an important clue!

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Who I think is innocent (all gut feeling as there really, really isn't much else that can honestly be said by anybody with any certainty at all {Elempi glares at Espiem}):

Elempi (obviously)
the phantom
Espiem
Mithalwen

Who I'm not at all sure about:
Nogrod
Kath
Anguirel
Estelyn

Who I think may be a werewolf:

PreciousPrism18

Roa
Eomer

Eomer has been rather quiet and rather disengaging, and his posts nonchalant and disarming. I don't trust that in him.

Roa is capable of just about anything. I learned that in a certain DW game.

Diamond: she's due.

More in a bit - real life calls me away now. (Well, barks me away, actually - time to walk the dog...)

[the phantom]

I've been rereading posts and just generally skimming over the thread. After doing so, I feel the need to remake my guilt list.

Every time I reread my feelings change. That's so annoying. It reminds me I don't have anything concrete.

PURE AND SPOTLESS
Ang
the phantom

LEANING TOWARDS INNOCENT
Esty
Mith
Nogrod
Roa
SPM

KEEP AN EYE ON
Di
Kath

There are several people that I'm swinging back and forth on from one extreme to the other as I read the thread. Mainly it's Di, Kath, Mith, and SPM. I swear, sometimes I think they're completely innocent, and then two minutes later I'm ready to vote for them. With SPM though it may just be that I have an inclination to get into it with him as I have in past villages. That's why I didn't do a Roa-style myself on him. I wanted to see others do it- people who don't have my fight-with-SPM urges.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

One brief thought that came to me upon reskimming the thread: The "who would Fea choose as a WW" argument is worth nothing. She handpicked the whole lot of us - there's not one who is easily expendable or a "most likely to get lynched on the first day" candidate. She would have loved to make each and any of us a werewolf. Can you imagine how difficult it must have been for her to choose only two?!

[Anguirel]

I'm not all that proud of my catch yesterday...I stooped to conquer...

SPM was right to say that my "honeytrap" was actually less real than it might have looked. Declaring my ploy was in itself a ploy, to create some spurious evidence and encourage Eomer votes. Still, I suppose the fact it all worked was a Good Thing.

I notice Nogrod is no longer entirely saintly in the phantom's view. Care to tell, o phantom, why you were previously so sure that you warned Mith off him? Or is it merely that the sight of people defying your innocence list is painful to you?

Last night's kill was, of course, the unanimous choice of one wolf. I thought it was going to be me, actually. LMP seems to fit the pattern of killing the relatively quiet and trailless, though not as much as morm did.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

...that should be "whom" would Fea choose, of course. For someone like me, used to rereading my own posts and editing to correct all typos, spelling and grammar errors, the non-editing rule is indeed annoying!

[Diamond18]

I started doing a SpM analysis, which has so far entailed my studying his day 2 psots. I have come away with a groove on the side of my face that matches the edge of the desk perfectly, and a feeling that SpM is innocent. I'll try to come back tomorrow with something less vague. In the meantime, his posts are free for the reading....

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=157

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=171

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=172

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=180

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=181

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=236

Mainly, I'm finding it hard to believe that he would kill Elempi after having him as a pet suspect. Unless his suspicion was all carefully voiced in order to make me think this way....... But really, it seems to me that a wolfish SpM would have kept LMP around.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Back to analysis of LPM's posts:

#178 replies to SPM's suspicions and asks the reason for them. His summary:

SPM is just as dangerous in this game as any, whether innocent and a threat to the werewolves, or a werewolf and a threat to the village. The odds are 2 in 13 that he is innocent; but if he is not, he is a most dangerous enemy. Let us take care.

#176 defines his reasons for suspecting Di: "Protested too Prodigeously for my liking... ... her unnecessary defense which struck me as likely as not as that of a first time werewolf whose nerves have gotten to her."

His first day first vote for Ang can be seen in the context of previous happenings and was revoked anyway to vote for Di.

Going on the basis of his votes, his secondary prime candidate was obviously Di. Since he was astute enough to find out the one werewolf we've caught so far, he might be onto something there.

The other person on his werewolf list (#208) is Roa.

I would not let either SPM nor Phantom off the hook of possible werewolves. Though I have not yet considered Phantom guilty, I am well aware of his abilities and trust him to be able to double/triple/quadruple bluff his way through any game.

Any earlier LPM posts are not relevant to the current situation, as I see it.


The following voted for Eomer: Ang, Mith, phantom, Di

Names on both lists: Ang (only initially and admittedly because of an old grudge, so probably not a serious suspicion)

phantom - always to be taken seriously as a possible threat

Diamond - for the same reason I myself had - too vociferous in her protestation of innocence. Anyone can say it, but making a rule of it is going too far!


So far, that would keep Di on top of my list of suspects. Right now, the others on that list are SPM and possibly phantom.

As to the others, several are relatively unknown to me, so I have no idea how to assess them. It's still early in the day, so maybe more evidence will show up.

[The Saucepan Man]

He he. So Eomer was a Wolf. Who’d have thunk it?

I would wager that, if the Dark Lady did hand pick one of her servants, then this was the one. If so, then the other Wolf was either a random choice or (more likely, on the basis of what we have been told so far) indirectly selected in some way. Either way, they are going to be more difficult to find.

It is difficult to draw many conclusions from the votes for Eomer yesterday. I am tempted to wonder whether the other Wolf had spotted Eomer’s furry inclinations and took the opportunity to help eliminate him. However, it just as likely that the other Wolf did not vote for Eomer, either because he/she did not spot him or because he/she was more intent on trying to kill innocents. So, I am doubtful that the votes themselves will tell us much. That said, the timing of them or the reasoning given might well hold some clues, so those are matters that I will be looking further into.

I tend to think that Eomer was keen to find and eliminate his fellow Wolf. As I explained yesterday, it would be the sensible thing for a Wolf to do. Eomer’s vote for Kath was based on such reasoning (that one Wolf had been looking for the other in selecting morm as their kill) and the best Wolfish plans are often based upon an underlying truth. This would implicate Kath, who has certainly been keeping a low profile (although she has sought to explain that). However, it presupposes that Eomer was following such a plan and that he had correctly identified his fellow Wolf, neither of which is anything like certain. I remain unsure about Kath, but will bear this in mind.

Now, Elempi …

Ah, Elempi. I am sorry if I impaired your enjoyment of this rollercoaster-of-a-game, but I did suspect you, and not simply because it is traditional for me to do so. Heartless though it may sound, I am rather glad that you bought it in the night, as I would undoubtedly have carried on after you today were you still here. Your removal eliminates something of a stumbling block for me …

But where does this leave me? My mains suspects yesterday where Elempi, Eomer and Esty, with a smattering of Roa thrown in. However, I need to consider the implications of Elempi as choice of nightly kill and also ponder what has been said so far today.

To avoid giving further headaches to those who would seek to analyse my lengthy and verbose posts (), I will cut this short here and return anon with some further thoughts.

[The Saucepan Man]

Elempi was a strange choice of kill. As I suggested before, his continued presence was diverting my attention from other possible Wolves, and he was also garnering suspicion in some other quarters (although not yet enough to warrant a vote from others).

So why kill him? One possibility is that it was an attempt to set me up. On the face of it, it seems unlikely that a Wolfish SpM would kill the villager that he suspected the most and voted for. But, because that is the obvious conclusion, a cunning Wolf may well have been seeking to implicate me as a double-bluffing Wolf.

Or was Elempi chosen because he had one of the Wolves on his “probably innocent” list. That would implicate the phantom, Mithalwen and me.

Or possibly, the Wolf was one of those Elempi most suspected, which would implicate Diamond and Roa. Diamond more so, I think, because she has been in danger of being lynched on both of the previous days and so would be more concerned to eliminate one of the possible votes for her.

However, I tend to think it more likely that the Wolf was one whom Elempi neither particularly suspected nor trusted, as this leaves less of a trail and points instead towards those in the categories identified above. This would implicate Ang, Noggie, Kath and Esty.

Since I am still inclined (for now) to view Nogrod and Anguirel as innocent, Elempi’s choice as nightly kill, to my mind, most strongly implicates Kath and Esty.