Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What Roa did was something I have called "A Devil's Advocate" -view over someone. Looking at someone's posting with the evil eye, trying to see any suspicious things you could find and gathering them to a summary. She has done that before, and I have done those - not to speak of the master of the art Spawn... I guess we all have done those as both innocents and villains. So making of them does not make one suspicious, but the reactions to them do count.

I certainly agree with the last point. As for whether the making of the analyses renders Roa suspicious, I would welcome hearing from her why she chose Esty and I. I have not looked back, but my recollection is that she posted her analysis of Esty, then posted a list identifying Esty and I as “probable Wolves”, then went on to analyse me. I get the impression that she had decided (for whatever reason - possibly virtuous, possibly malign) that Esty and I were her suspects for toDay and then went on to analyse us with that in mind.

Someone (Ang?) mentioned before that her timing (Daybreak and Dusk) were fortuitius for a Wolf. And, if she is a Wolf, she has used that to her advantage. She seems to have had a large hand (paw?) in setting today’s agenda.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Wouldn't actually kill him for being a lawyer .... but it has to be born in mind that lawyers are trained to present cases.......

Oh, I’m no glory-seeking fancy-dan advocate. Simply a corporate background boy. However, I do rather pride myself on being able to present convincing positon papers.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I know. Am voting unhelpfully and feeling generally a bit inert and cavalier.

Hehe. I almost labelled you as “cavalier” rather than “profligate” before, but did not because I feared you might take it as a compliment.

Phantom, are we ever actually going to get some serious analysis from you, or are you still in dark-man-of-mystery mode?

[Nogrod]

Well just looking at the bare facts - and then interpreting them a little...

tp was one of the favourite-suspects on Day1. After that he has not gained any substantial suspicion - Roa and myself and I think some others have given a point or two against him after that, but nothing of any consequence. To counter that many a people have been happy to affirm their trust on him. Just that alone should ring some bells... So is he just so convincing with his innocence? Or is there a fear-factor involved by which no one wishes to suspect him?

At least his voting record is more than safe (according to the standards I think fit here eg. the wolves are not afraid to bandwaggon, on the contrary). On Day1 he casted the last vote for Di (bringing her even with Boro). On Day2 he brought Eomer to 3 votes. I agree he's an asset if innocent but I wouldn't count on it either. No one should go on unscrutinised...

Di was another favourite suspect on Days1 and 2. One of her voters was lmp we know is innocent but tp's vote (D1) does stand a bit safe there... Then again Di set entirely safe votes for Boro (the first vote of which no one can blame if the reason is ranting) on Day1 and for Eomer as the last voter on Day2 herself.

I don't know what to say of her. She introduced the law of Di being always innocent and told us she would be quitting WW after this one... that sounds genuine as I can't see her making a trick like that in a game. Or then she might do it. But probably not.

Spm is the hard nut to crack (who isn't?). He sounds the most reasonable one here and just because of that he should be lynched? No. There seems to be a bunch of situations where an intelligent Spm-wolf would have acted just the way he has (look my earlier posts for more) but still I feel him more innocent than guilty. But is my feeling right? I don't trust it even though I feel it.

But his voting record looks quite terrible. First he votes tp and changes to lmp, then on Day2 sticks with lmp as the first vote of the Day. Surely he can say his votes have been fun and based on old rivalries, but due to that they are safe too... ToDay he jumps on Roa and that sounds more innocent, but not freeing in anyway. It was early enough and he will have his chance to change it if needs be... As I said, very hard to see.

But as I've said before, I'd like to see him in the game as he makes sense and if innocent would help us a lot. If a wolf, well, he'll slip sooner or later (if he hasn't already?).

Kath is an enigma here. Were she a wolf, she would be playing a wonderful game. A nasty tactics, I admit. But she's done that before and would be a nice and balancing wolf for Fea.

Her voting is a talking example of this. On Day1 a waggon vote on tp (the last of them) and on Day2 carefully sprerading the vote after I had commented about wolves wishing to narrow the suspects as long as they are not among them themselves.

But I can't say that is in some way conclusive. She might just be herself wishing to stay alive the first Days to gear up later... Not that I approve of the tactics, but if we're after the wolf here and not after the tactics we approve, then I'm not sure if there is enough reason to vote her.

Estelyn basically got through the first two Days by a goodwill. Even though the possibility of Fea choosing her was raised a few times. I've talked of her enough earlier so I will not say much here.

But she has brought someone up from one to two votes everyDay (Boro, Di, Spm)! Could anyone think of a safer way to be a wolf? I mean she withdraws early but she always votes for someone who already has votes...

Even though I feel wrong to suspect her my reason says she is a worthwhile candidate for a wolf.

Roa seems to be another fear-factor player here. No one dared to suspect her until Spm (by force) and Ang decided to give it a try (as she had gone away... how convenient?). She's a human, c'mon! I've lost to her, I've won her and I've also won with her!

She makes cases, yes she does. But she does them both innocent and a baddie. Her voting record is quite hard to interpret as she has voted for Di on two first Days (on Day1 starting the vore for Di, on Day2 closing it) and her vote for Esty toDay was quite well founded - I'm not making comments on how good the reasons were as I think I have lots of better reasons to suspect Esty, but that she had prepared a case for her first and then voted on grounds of it. Rational player voting if needing to go off early - or very rational wolf-voting.

I'm very unsure about her too. Somehow I'm inclined to see her as innocent this time, but something tells me otherwise. It just feels so stupid to suspect her in every game... *computing*

Ang and Mith to come (of whom I seem to know nothing)... I just need a break and will ease your reading by cutting this to smaller units...

I will also have to say something more definitive abut this too as I have to vote...

[Nogrod]

Oh, this seems to be too much for me as it's a bit over 3AM here - well saturday to look for but I have to wake up at least around Mid-day...

So this will be short and to be continued if I'm alive toMorrow.

But I have checked some basics anyhow.

Both Ang and Mith were somewhat loud and careful at the same time on Day1.

After that I lose control of them (and have no time to read more properly) and find them more dizzying than informative. Well that suits Ang better than Mith as I think she feels quite herself. If she turns out the wolf we should all go and cry at the full moon one day after this...

Ang has voted somewhat safely and has behaved somewhat likewise. OnDay1 he casted the very first vote of the game for tp and on Day2 the first for Eomer early in the game. ToDay he has voted Spm first in the air of the earlier Days but then actually changed it to Roa. At the same time he has declared to fall into the fun-stuff as we can't win but still making the first steps to actually try to involve himself towards the results of the vote? Now what to say of this? Either something fishy or then just being in the funny mode and suddenly starting to think about it (just to save Spm, for instance?).

Mith on the contrary made the Bb-vote on Day1, but now as I look at it I'm not so sure how risky it was in the end - seems to have produced relative safety indeed... Her vote and the retraction for Eomer doesn't say much either. ToDay her vote on Esty seems pretty safe (others have made the case to look convincing enough) but she has plausible arguments on her behalf for it (pragmatism).

I will need to think a moment... a vote coming soon and then to bed...

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by SPM

Phantom, are we ever actually going to get some serious analysis from you, or are you still in dark-man-of-mystery mode?

Heh- I'm always in that mode.

As far as "serious analysis", throughout the game I've pretty much provided what I felt needed to be said. The vast majority of my thoughts I keep to myself, for this game is so incredibly hunch/feeling based (because of the lack of WW teams) that most of my thoughts are whimsical feelings, which change with every read-through. I mean, I can tear all sorts of holes in every thought I have, so why pass along such garbage to the village? It would only waste your valuable time.

But that said, I am going to at least do a little bit of "serious analysis".

I should like to start with firsts. First posts, that is. First posts might be as telling as anything. Mine was, I believe.

Di's first post

Esty's first post

Kath's first post

Roa's first post

Di's first post is light, short, and plays on the idea of using grudges. It seems to be very much in line with her usual attitude. Of course, we've never seen her as a baddie, so who knows?

Esty's first post emphasises cluelessness, and she complains about not being able to influence the vote, and she doesn't like the idea of a random lynching. This is Esty's first post from her other game (WW XII). There is a huge difference between the two. Why? Is it just role-play and nothing else?

Kath suggests that on Day 1 we lynch based on past grudges so that they're gone by Day 3 or so and we don't fall back onto them. I'm really intrigued by this. It seems to be a good thought and yet not helpful at all. She also says that there are ways of picking out the WWs despite the format. In her next post she says she doesn't have any grudges. How convenient considering she suggested lynching grudges. She posts a couple more times asking about the deadline and voting. She jokes about SPM in #87. Then she does another one liner. Then she votes for me and says that she's bandwagoning. Would a WW come out and say this? It seems to me the answer is yes.

Roa objects to Ang's comment about Fea wanting to break Roa's winning streak. She says "Hey! I've lost before. Ask Nogrod- he was there. Once, sure, but it still counts. And it was completely my fault. Curse my boldness! It was the end of me!" Is she trying to make herself look less dangerous? She doesn't like the Di-rule. Then she refutes my pessimism and says that the village is not powerless. Buttering up the chances of the villagers?

Okay...

Take my opinion with a ladle of salt, for I have not had time to go through and read all the posts of my four suspects. But as it stands right now my order of suspicion-
Kath
Roa and Esty
Di

I'm feeling like voting for Kath.

[Nogrod]

Ang – Spm (Spm1)
Roa – Estelyn (Spm1, Estelyn1)
Estelyn – Spm (Spm2, Estelyn1)
Spm – Roa (Spm2, Estelyn1, Roa1)
Mith – Estelyn (Spm2, Estelyn2, Roa1)
Ang – Roa [-Spm] (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2)

So four votes left (and the possibility of some retractions...), Di, Kath , tp, Nogrod to vote.

I'm a bit wary of both Mith and Ang as they have kind of slipped under my radar so far. I know them both to be capable in their own manner. But still I can't see myself voting on them as I have nothing more specific or grounded for either of them.

Diamond I'm also quite ready to leave be for the moment. It's guts more than any reasoned arguments.

Roa I'm not at all in ease with, but Spm's concern about her choice of the ones to "analyse" set aside I have no reason to doubt her more than others. I could see her as the wolf Fea wished to be in... She has been a goodie also, well one or two times...

Spm I do suspect somewhat but I also think that he might be just a victim of being suspicious as he is a loud villager with good points and clearly present for all to see.

The same somewhat goes to tp. I might have millions of reasons to suspect him (and I do), but then again he seems contributing enough and with quality to not be my lynching choice for toDay.

That leaves me to my two suspects, Kath and Estelyn.

I have been suspecting Esty for a while now and could vote her on the basis of it. Still my guts say the opposite. It might be that Fea picked her just to fill this job but still I waver here...

Kath has been a bit too quiet toDay to be a wolf but otherwise I'm thinking of her as my primary suspect right now.

RL or tactics?

I can't say, so I'll vote for:

++ Kath

again.

[Nogrod]

Just as the last one for toDay...

Ang – Spm (Spm1)
Roa – Estelyn (Spm1, Estelyn1)
Estelyn – Spm (Spm2, Estelyn1)
Spm – Roa (Spm2, Estelyn1, Roa1)
Mith – Estelyn (Spm2, Estelyn2, Roa1)
Ang – Roa [-Spm] (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2)
Nogrod - Kath (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2, Kath1)

[Diamond18]

Apologies for my absence. I'm not quiet, I'm just not around. Work. Sleep. The usual.

So, it's taken me an hour to read through everything once, if I try re-reading, I'll just miss the deadline. This bites, as I can't really read between the lines of anyone's posting, I haven't the time. So my decision on who to vote for comes down to this....

++Kath

Because, at this moment, it creates a three way tie between Esty, Roa, and Kath, and leaves their fates up to blind luck. Which is no worse a discerner of their guilt as I am.

I may change my mind based on Kath and tp's votes.

[The Saucepan Man]

I am not so sure that Kath will be voting. It's 2.30am here in blighty.

Then again, she could end up voting in the aftermath of a wild freshman party ...

I have to say that I really don't think her a Wolf. If she were a lone Wolf, and she were able, I am sure that she would have been here today.

The alternative is that RL committments have been occupying her. In which case I think it rather unfair to lynch her, toDay at least.

[Diamond18]

Alright... SpM... you've tugged at my heartstrings.

- - Kath

+ + SpM

Hey, you might live....

So, it's up to either tp or chance. Look at it this way, if tp is a wolf, he'd be winning no matter who I voted for.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I went to bed some hours ago with the feeling that I might be dead in this game when I awoke in the morning, and trying to reconcile myself to that fact.

[teenager depression thought mode]When I'm dead they'll know the truth and be sorry they treated me like that![/teenager depression thought mode]

I awoke early - and in time to do something about my pending death chances. The following vote is based partly on SPM's suspicions that Roa's analysis of the two of us was setting us up in a two-horse race. Partly, it's my last attempt to stay alive.

--The Saucepan Man

++Roa Aoife

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by SPM

If she were a lone Wolf, and she were able, I am sure that she would have been here today.

That's what is driving me nuts. Surely she would show up if she were a WW. But then again- why? Would her RL schedule magically change or something? I don't know about anyone else, but when I was a WW and when I wasn't I liked to show up. And if I couldn't show up then I plain old couldn't show up.

And what if we don't lynch her today because it would be "unfair". Will we use that reasoning tomorrow if she is absent again? This sort of thing (lack of evidence due to quietness) drives me absolutely nuts.

Remember WW III, SPM, where the pack of WWs turned out to be all quiet females if I'm not mistaken. Remember how long it took for everyone to catch on and be willing to lynch them and by then it was too late?

Grr...

If you want to sway my vote then speak now. The deadline approaches.

[Nogrod]

I was just turning to sleep and going to turn down the PC when I saw what had happened.

Spm you seem to have a point here... and I'm afraid that you're right.

But that arouses the question of whom should we vote for then? (your coming in talks very well of you, I must say)

I need to go to sleep but I'll promise to give this one more round of thought...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by TP

And what if we don't lynch her today because it would be "unfair". Will we use that reasoning tomorrow if she is absent again? This sort of thing (lack of evidence due to quietness) drives me absolutely nuts.

No. I am suggesting giving her one day's grace.

I am not at all sure that she's a Wolf anyway. Other than her quietness, there's not a lot to suggest it.

[the phantom]

The voting-

Ang for SPM (1)
Roa for Esty (1)
Esty for SPM (2)
SPM for Roa (1)
Mith for Esty (2)
Ang take back SPM (1)
Ang for Roa (2)
Nogrod for Kath (1)
Di for Kath (2)
Di take back Kath (1)
Di for SPM (2)
Esty take back SPM (1)
Esty for Roa (3)

Busy day. This ought to make for some good stuff to analyze should we still be here tomorrow.

Roa-3, Esty-2, SPM-1, Kath-1

[Nogrod]

Ang – Spm (Spm1)
Roa – Estelyn (Spm1, Estelyn1)
Estelyn – Spm (Spm2, Estelyn1)
Spm – Roa (Spm2, Estelyn1, Roa1)
Mith – Estelyn (Spm2, Estelyn2, Roa1)
Ang – Roa [-Spm] (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2)
Nogrod - Kath (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2, Kath1)
Di - Kath (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2, Kath2)
Di - Spm [-Kath] (Spm2, Estelyn2, Roa2, Kath1)
Esty - Roa [-Spm] (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa3, Kath1)

[The Saucepan Man]

Current tally (I think) is:

SpM - 1
Esty - 2
Kath -2
Roa - 3

[Estelyn Telcontar]

This was Nogrod's last tally.

(Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2, Kath1)

I haven't counted back and am assuming it's correct. Based on that, here's the new voting balance:

Kath: +1, -1
Saucy: +1, -1
Roa: +1

That means the above count still applies in all but one case: Roa now has 3 votes.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

- four tally posts within a couple of minutes! The deadline must be drawing nigh...

[The Saucepan Man]

Yes, sorry. You're right. Kath currently has only 1 vote (Noggie's).

[the phantom]

From my perspective, the only meaningful vote I could cast right now would be a vote to tie Esty with Roa.

[Nogrod]

I know this is somewhat haphazard but still there is something here...

I do not think Roa to be the villain. She just makes sense (even though she picked Spm and Esty - not poor choices, to scrutiny).

But Esty being here as I know she lives in Germany and is only one hour behind myself who stupidly plays this game aty 4.50AM...

So how come you are here if you're not wholly disturberd about your fate and why to be disturbed about a game if you were not indeed the wolf?

-- Kath

++ Estelyn, the wolf-queen

[The Saucepan Man]

I had been tending to view Roa as the more likely Wolf than Esty in the latter part of toDay, but I'm not sure what to make of Esty returning at this hour. Any thoughts, Noggie and TP?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

who stupidly plays this game aty 4.50AM...

that meant myself, not Estelyn... but she's awake quite late too. Why?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I had been tending to view Roa as the more likely Wolf than Esty in the latter part of toDay, but I'm not sure what to make of Esty returning at this hour. Any thoughts, Noggie and TP?

Look at my earlier post with the vote. That's what I think right now...

[The Saucepan Man]

Hehe. Cross-posted with Noggie, who had already answered with his vote ...

I could change my vote, or we could leave it to the Dark Lady's machinations ...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Nogrod: The answer to your question is a remnant of jetlag from my recent trip. It's as simple as that. I'm "early to bed, early to rise" much of the time anyway, but still not quite back in Europe. However, if my waking early is what gets me lynched, so be it.

*shrugs

[Diamond18]

I was going to say something interesting, but I forgot what it was....

You know, it's too late now, but I wish I could change my vote to Esty. Her popping up now and being so desperate to save her own skin seems rather wolfish. Or maybe I've just forgotten what it feels like to be an ordo and care.

[Diamond18]

I cross-posted with... a lot. But I see that I'm not the only one thinking Esty's will to live a mite too strong.

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm inclined to trust you on this Noggie, as you are something of a Roa expert (which doesn't mean I'll blame you tomorrow if it all turns out wrong, rest assured).

What say you phantom?

[Nogrod]

It will go to Fea's dices again if no one changes...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

the phantom will remember that I made a point of waking up for the deadline of his game last year. And I was an innocent - one who managed to stay alive and win at the end!

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So how come you are here if you're not wholly disturberd about your fate and why to be disturbed about a game if you were not indeed the wolf?

I don't agree with your reasoning. Why shouldn't an innocent want to save his own life?

The ONLY way for an innocent to guarantee victory for the village is to be the last person standing himself, for an ordo knows ONLY his OWN identity for sure.

Should an ordo be willing to sacrifice his own life? If there is a Seer or other gifted to protect, then yes, but there are none such individuals here. I personally have no plans of letting myself die at any point, and therefore I refuse to condemn Esty for it.

++Roa

[Nogrod]

Roa3
Esty3

If I'm not wrong...

[The Saucepan Man]

Gotta do it now, if I'm going to do it.

--Roa_Aoife

++Estelyn Telcontar

[The Saucepan Man]

Ai! Utter confusion!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I don't agree with your reasoning. Why shouldn't an innocent want to save his own life?

Why a wolf shouldn't?

[Estelyn Telcontar]

phantom's vote made Roa 4
Saucy's made me 4

The Dark Lady will have to roll dice, then a head.

[Nogrod]

Dices, I say...

[the phantom]

It's a tie now, right?

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Saucy, I wish you'd have understood phantom's reasoning - he was right about me. Time will show.