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Old 05-13-2006, 08:41 AM   #81
JennyHallu
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Well I'm back, I've read over everything and have decided that I need to go read over some things more carefully. I'll probably be voting between 4 and 5 hours early, so be warned. It seems it has taken us a good 12 hours to come to the conclusion that we ought to out the Evil Wizard, which is certainly slow moving for a village of so many souls.

I have had a few thoughts: In the first post, Loki claimed to be the reclaimed wolf, but SPM, you didn't even mention that in your "lists", making up three possible wolf teams that did not include Loki at all. That struck me as odd, if not a little careless coming from you. My poor Celuien! Whyever did she marry you?

I hate to admit it, as I love to disagree with a particular supernatural phenomenon, but his analysis of the motivations and fears of each of the Wizards makes a good deal of sense, and seem very well thought out indeed. Thank you, one among many semi-anonymous ghouls.

Now I wish to read more closely the ruminations of Nogrod, the Fool. Be back with more thoughts.
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Old 05-13-2006, 08:46 AM   #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil
At the risk of dying early, I have to say that this is a pretty good idea and shouldn't be discounted due to dubious morality. Why leave those around that you trust that much less than others? Then again, it's rather reassuring to have people around that you don't trust because at least then you aren't totally without target. Whichever way, don't be so quick to deny possible strategies; it makes you look nervous.
I didn't say we should rightaway discard the tactic, I just said in my opinion we should preferably look at the actions of the people, not at the people themselves. I repeat that I'm afraid that if we start to use only one viewpoint we won't get very far and in the worst scenario we'll be blind to what really is going on and who is who.

I'm afraid the EW is reading this thread and laughing. This confusion serves him/her very well, I fear.

And who wouldn't be nervous in a maniac game like this?

edit: x-posted with Jenny
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Last edited by Thinlómien; 05-13-2006 at 08:49 AM.
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Old 05-13-2006, 08:47 AM   #83
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sealing my fate early?

The point is, there are some players that, when wolf and when innocent, act noticably different. There are some players that you are more confident in your ability to gague. And there are some that you will never understand regardless of anything pertaining to anything else. Mormegil, for instance: if he's a wolf, we're screwed; we'll never know... it would be mere whim that would ever have us catch the dear.

See what I mean? If you kill the players that you are completely uncertain that you'll ever be able to nail down in any situation, you'll simplify your own life.

Of course, the village would be more boring without them, but you might keep your sanity longer.
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Old 05-13-2006, 08:51 AM   #84
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Silmaril

Well, I am here, after a long journey from my woodlands cottage.

I've browsed the thread and read snippets here and there, but didn't really find much to interest me, except for this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamond, my illustrious mother-in-law
This includes Nogrod, Lhuna, Zali, Firefoot, and if he's a really good boy, Eonwe.
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You see Mom, I'm a good little boy, a good little boy...
Anyway, I'll try me best.

I haven't much to post right now, but I promise to actually read the thread right after this post and come back with something or other.
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Old 05-13-2006, 08:52 AM   #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
I didn't say we should rightaway discard the tactic, I just said in my opinion we should preferably look at the actions of the people, not at the people themselves.
But some people act really weird. Always. You can't trust actions. You can trust that there are some people you'll never trust.

I like my logic. I dunno about you guys.
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Old 05-13-2006, 09:00 AM   #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fea
Mormegil, for instance: if he's a wolf, we're screwed; we'll never know... it would be mere whim that would ever have us catch the dear.
Well, the GW or the Seer, once we get one, could find that out pretty easily. At this point I think it's better to concentrate on those who we find suspicious of wolvery or wicked wizardry than to those who are potential threats if turned a wolf.
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Old 05-13-2006, 09:04 AM   #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant
At this point I think it's better to concentrate on those who we find suspicious of wolvery or wicked wizardry than to those who are potential threats if turned a wolf.
I disagree. The end.

It's the first day. Nothing is conclusive but that which we know from our "lorebooks" and our experiences with our fellow villagers.

hits head on table knowing that this argument will get me killed
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Old 05-13-2006, 09:05 AM   #88
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And why am I even arguing this? It was a comment. My actual advice wasn't to kill people on whim (or Morm would be dead because I hold grudges for my ancestors ) but to search for wizards!
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Old 05-13-2006, 09:06 AM   #89
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Fea, I understand what you are getting out and, in some wierd way, it makes sense. In my book of lore of past Werewolf Villages, I've noticed that some people will always act the same. Whether they're innocent, Gifted or Cursed, they will always act the same. I am like that myself and I've noticed the same with SpM and morm. So, to restate what Fea said, it's dangerous to go by how people act.

x-posted with those above
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Old 05-13-2006, 09:21 AM   #90
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Kitanna ~ Will eat her beau for midnight snack before the game is over.
Diamond, how ever did you learn my plan?

Loki seems to have gathered some suspicion around himself.
Quote:
I am, obviously, the best pick(And, being newest to the forums) and least suspicious of the group. Chances are good that I would not have been considered to be anything evil and wrong... just yet
This caught my eye when I first read it and then I see Nogrod also feels this comment needs to be watched. Nogrod also mentioned Loki's "wolfish" defense of himself ofone little comment made. I'm not really concerned about that it's his first game and Day one. It's not all that surprising he's a bit jumpy. But the comment above has me worried. What exactly is Loki trying to tell us? Trying to taunt us?
Quote:
I merely remarked that being new to the game would make me appear to be rather UN-canine in nature. A very good choice to curse, if you would. However, if you do so wish to ignore this offer of insight upon the thought processes of those who had attempted to transmogrify me, be it well on yourself. Think of it as me being a wolf. It's your bloody loss, villager. Unless, of course, you are a wolf, and turning suspicions on me is naught but a not-so-clever scheme to remove suspicions from yourself. Bear in mind, lycanthrope, that when I am lynched, eyes will turn upon thee...
An open challenge to Nogrod? And he says "when" he's lynched, not "if" he's lynched.
Also Loki says since this is his first game he is less likely to be accussed of wolvery. Not true in my opinion and saying that only brings more suspicion on him.

But moving on the plan Gurthang set forth and phantom elaborated on is a good one.
Quote:
Now, phantom makes the situation sound pretty bright for us, but that's what the Evil Wizard would like to do; to make the Villagers believe that we don't have much to be scared of.
A terrifying idea. Phantom the EW? I'd rather not think about it. The plan is still a good one and the things the EW should fear still hold true.

Well I really must run now, but I shall return in an hour or so to contribute some more.
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Old 05-13-2006, 09:26 AM   #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glirdan
So, to restate what Fea said, it's dangerous to go by how people act.
Yes, and it's dangerous to go by the personalities of the people. Werewolf is always dangerous, whatever method we use.

Anyway, I still stick to my earlier comment and agree with dancing spawn's latest post.

Fea, you say you'd like to spot the EW. Have you got any theories how would s/he be acting? Or any candidates worth mentioning?
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Old 05-13-2006, 09:36 AM   #92
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The voting thus far:
1. Nilp --> Nogrod (Nogrod 1)
2. Lhuna --> Eomer (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1)
3. Gurthang --> Lommy (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1)
4. Diamond --> Loki (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 1)

I know the Day is young yet and these votes may give little indication as to how the Day will end, but I need to start the list for my own sanity. What with such a large village, I very quickly begin to forget who's voted for whom.

Now, as for the talk so far, I've chimed in with my opinion (that we ought to look for the EW). I don't think, though, that the GW should declare him/herself. It's up to his/her discretion when to declare, and until then, it's best to stay hidden, in case the EW gets into a good position to challenge before the GW does.

My own suspicions? Well, Loki's behavior seems strange. By "strange behavior", just to clarify, I mean the subtley made claim that he was cursed and un-cursed, and his somewhat abrasive reactions to people's passing comments. However, my suspicions of him may be mainly just because I can't find anyone else to suspect. He's the only one who has really stood out so far, and that itself casts him in slightly a better light, as it would be risky for a wolf to stand out that way.

I also find Lhuna's suggestion about the GW revealing him/herself slightly odd. It doesn't seem like a good idea to me (see above).

OOC Note: Cross-posted with a bunch of people, as I've been working on this on and off for a while due to a rather interesting computer situation...
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Old 05-13-2006, 09:38 AM   #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yours truly
Well, the GW or the Seer, once we get one, could find that out pretty easily. At this point I think it's better to concentrate on those who we find suspicious of wolvery or wicked wizardry than to those who are potential threats if turned a wolf.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil
I disagree.
Quote:
My actual advice wasn't to kill people on whim (or Morm would be dead because I hold grudges for my ancestors ) but to search for wizards!
Isn't that agreeing then?

Anyway...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jenny
I have had a few thoughts: In the first post, Loki claimed to be the reclaimed wolf, but SPM, you didn't even mention that in your "lists", making up three possible wolf teams that did not include Loki at all. That struck me as odd, if not a little careless coming from you.
I had to go back to look if that's really true. Sauce actually said this,
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sauce
And, much as I would like to see the back of him for his antagonistic behaviour and insufferable gloating, I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard. His reputation, even before this Day, makes him a quite likely candidate for lynching. Then again, one motive for claiming to be the de-Werewolved villager would be to divert attention from himself. If that was his intention, then it has backfired. Nevertheless, I will disegard him for today, based on my reasoning above.
but I would have been interested to hear a bit more about this from him than that he's just disregarding Loki because he doesn't believe that the EW would have picked him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitanna
A terrifying idea. Phantom the EW? I'd rather not think about it. The plan is still a good one and the things the EW should fear still hold true.
I'm not saying that he's the EW, but I'd rather consider all options than blindly trust him. Besides, why would he make flawed theories and lie? I've heard enough of his ancestors not to be too swift to declare him innocent.
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Old 05-13-2006, 10:14 AM   #94
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I was rather enjoying being single. Still... who might it be?
Why, Fea, who else but Mormegil? He has been a widow for too long, which is making him very peevish and with all these things going on, someone should keep an eye on him. And you two have so much in common. What do you say, now?

I do not really get your plan, by the way, as it seems you are contradicting yourself. I am all for finding the Evil Wizard and will gladly sacrifice both my sons in the search of this mastermind ( ), but we cannot just lynch them randomly because they are amusing.

It's a dilemma, certainly. In a large village such as this one, the silent ones will easily escape our notice, thus making them possible dangerous enemies. And when we have gotten rid of the wizards, we don't want all clever men and women dead and buried already. On the other hand, the EW is perhaps the cleverest of all. Should we sacrifice the intelligent ones in our search for the ultimate baddie? Meh. I don't know.

---

I also must say that I do not really understand your reasoning concerning Loki, Celuien. If sowing confusion purposedly is not reason enough to get you lynched on Day one, what is?

You think Lalaith as most desirable, Eomer? My guess of the Day is Firefoot. However, that is fairly irrelevant.

Quote:
I'm not saying that he's the EW, but I'd rather consider all options than blindly trust him. Besides, why would he make flawed theories and lie? I've heard enough of his ancestors not to be too swift to declare him innocent.
What are you trying to imply, here?

However, though I should not be pointing fingers at him, if anyone is likely to have indulged in the arts of magic -though I cannot say whether any success was had- it might perhaps be... Well, I would never say that aloud, of course.
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Old 05-13-2006, 10:36 AM   #95
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Eye

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caran
I don't think, though, that the GW should declare him/herself. It's up to his/her discretion when to declare, and until then, it's best to stay hidden, in case the EW gets into a good position to challenge before the GW does.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caran
I also find Lhuna's suggestion about the GW revealing him/herself slightly odd. It doesn't seem like a good idea to me
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spawn
I think it's a bigger blow to the Village to be left without all three Gifteds and fewer wolves than with a fully functioning trio of gifts and a wolf or two more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spawn
I find there to be something odd in Lhuna's behaviour.
Firstly, I don't agree with her suggestion that the GW might want to reveal themselves now...
Now that the GW has no Gifteds on his/her side, and there are two wolves among 30 villagers, the numbers wouldn't be very favourable for us.
No. I completely disagree with you guys. There is nothing wrong with Lhuna asking the GW to reveal. He doesn't fear a wizard challenge now. It's better for the village (worse for the EW) to have 2 wolves versus nearly thirty innocents than it is to have 10 wolves, 3 gifteds, and 10 innocents, so just because we don't have gifteds does not mean the wolves have a greater advantage now.

Honestly, what are the odds of one of the two wolves surviving down to the end? Pretty darn low.

Anyone who is saying or thinking that the EW may want to challenge soon is off their rocker. The EW wants things to drag on as long as possible. The EW WILL NOT CHALLENGE EARLY.

He will wait and wait and wait, and will only challenge if he has several wolves and gets lucky during the night (he ungifts someone or his wolves kill a gifted or two- that would be the perfect time to challenge).

Here's a bit more yapping and strategy from me...

The GW is bound to be discovered by the time the population favors the EW (he can be discovered through lynching, wolf kill, or EW curse). In addition, the GW wants to preserve his gifteds and lynch wolves, therefore he will feel considerable pressure to step forward and provide the village with safe lynch candidates.

There is nothing for the GW to fear right now, and odds say he won't escape detection long enough for it to be profitable, not to mention there is the risk of losing his gifteds in the daily lynch without his guidance.

The GW WILL REVEAL himself by the end of Day 3, or at the latest Day 4 (could be as early as tomorrow). Revealing himself is the logical thing to do. Each day he will lead our lynch mob. He will provide two or three candidates whom he knows aren't gifted or Seer-dreamed-innocent, and we will pick from them. He will also take all of his scry info and the Seer's dream info and pass it to at least one other gifted besides the Seer so that even when he is gone all knowledge will be preserved in at least two individuals.

It is also possible that one wolf will be held back as a Hunter target. In other words, if the Seer finds a Wolf tonight, the GW will leave him alone and will not try and uncurse him or get him lynched, but instead pass that wolf's name to the Hunter in case the Hunter is killed. That way, he'll have a guaranteed wolf kill.

That could be very valuable late in the game. If there are only a couple wolves left and the Hunter is the last of the gifteds, he could go ahead and reveal himself, tell the village outright the results of all Seer dreams and GW scries up to that point (but leave out the identity of the known wolf), and then that night when the wolves slay him he takes one of them down.
Quote:
A terrifying idea. Phantom the EW? I'd rather not think about it.
Actually, I don't think it's that terrifying. What are the odds that I will escape the attention of both the GW and the Seer? Not too high. Phantom=EW would lead to a resounding villager victory, I assure you.

Lastly, I have decided to blindly trust Sauce until the Wizards die. As I said earlier, Sauce and I both might be attractive wolves for the EW to pick, but he would want to do it late in the game. And even then it would be risky.

I'm going to trust the GW and Seer to take care of Sauce, and listen to what he has to say.

That's all I have time for right now. I have a bit of business to attend to. I'll be back later.
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Old 05-13-2006, 10:45 AM   #96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
Fea, you say you'd like to spot the EW. Have you got any theories how would s/he be acting? Or any candidates worth mentioning?
Several theories, nobody I feel the need to reveal.

However let's use our lorebooks, shall we? The recently published ones pertaining to activities that may take place on holiday from the village.

The evil wizard (okay... speaking plainly now...) volunteered for the job. The evil wizard, ergo, is somebody with a bit of time on his or her hands at the moment. The evil wizard is probably not going to be one of the students playing with finals coming up. The evil wizard is probably not going to be somebody that can't guarantee specific hours during the day in which to take care of wizarding business. The evil wizard (and the good, yes, the good) are going to be players with a bit of time to spare.

Remember that when accusing. "Yes, this person looks suspicious. Maybe a wolf, but since this, this, and this are happening in his/her life, what is the likelihood that s/he would volunteer for a time-consuming position?"

Think about it. It's no guarantee, but it's a good thing to keep in mind.

I want to remind people not to take Loki for granted. S/he's a new player and seems to be making mistakes in terms of surmising how we do this. But I'm fascinated by our trickster and I don't think we should assume him/her to be making silly mistakes. Keep in mind that all statements could very well be planned.

Don't discount anything. This statement is not for any one player or about any one player. Don't assume anything.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cailin
Why, Fea, who else but Mormegil?
The way the two of us bicker? I rather think the village would prefer we stay bitter single folk.

And as to the phantom being the evil wizard? He can't be. So say I.
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Old 05-13-2006, 10:56 AM   #97
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I hate day one. I hate day one. I hate day one. I hate day one. I hate day one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
I would rather not have people voting preventively, with reasons "oh, the EW might have chosen him/her, since s/he is so xxx" or "s/he's too dangerous if s/he is turned into a lycantrophe, let's kill him/her". That's so wrong that it screams.

I think we should preferably look at the actions of people (I know it's difficult on day 1), since we really can't predict the wizard tactics (or at least I can't).
Good advice...'cuz what are we gonna do, kill anyone with destructive potentail? That's everyone! Though...hmm, mass lynch anyone?

True - referring to our 'lorebooks' isn't going to help us much, only confuse us, because every story of past villages is different.

So yeah, I guess I'm just repeating Fea. Hmm.

I don't believe I'll be voting today, because I haven't found a reason to see anyone suspicious enough to warrant one, and because I won't be back to vote. I have chickens to catch!

*runs off with a fat red pullet, dodging the effective strokes of a battledore!*

x-posted w/ tp & fea
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:01 AM   #98
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Fea! Fea, Fea, Fea!

I can see you.

I think we should lynch.....Caranlondien? She'd make a fine wolf and the EW knows it. She's sensible, adds to the discussion, and I don't think she'd get lynched had I not put her name on the shortlist.

If I were the EW, I'd create a monster from her.
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:06 AM   #99
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I must agree with Phantom. I jut can't see any reason of the EW picking up her/his wolves from the stack of Spm, Spawn, Ang etc.. That would be very risky indeed. A wise EW would pick her/his chances differently. And we shall see these dynamics unfold in the days to become.

The EW would like to engage the "good players" into her/his camp, but the first day s/he would not be so bold? Spm, Spawn, Morm, Ang, etc. would be great assets to the EW along the game - as they had first built up an appearance of innocence. But then, they would be too obvious.

I'm really scared about those that have not posted yet - or just have posted namely. I will have to look at that too. Basically voting for those who do not share the game anyhow.
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:07 AM   #100
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Just checking: Does this day end in 3 hours? So many votes still to come!
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:08 AM   #101
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:17 AM   #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim
Just checking: Does this day end in 3 hours? So many votes still to come!
No, it is ending in 5 hours.

I'm convinced about the phantom's theory. It just makes sense. Nogrod is talking sense as well. But that doesn't release them from my suspicion.
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:19 AM   #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phantom
He doesn't fear a wizard challenge now. It's better for the village (worse for the EW) to have 2 wolves versus nearly thirty innocents than it is to have 10 wolves, 3 gifteds, and 10 innocents, so just because we don't have gifteds does not mean the wolves have a greater advantage now.
Even though the EW wanted to postpone the battle as long as s/he can and even though the GW didn't have to be afraid of being called into a duel early, revealing his/her identity leaves the EW with the last word to say which we don't want because then s/he can start the battle whenever we reach the baddie/gifted ratio that pleases him/her.

However, I see your point about the GW stepping forward on Day 3 or 4, and although it's up to the GW themselves, I tend to agree. Still, if the GW/ Seer/ Villagers manage to spot the EW before that, it'd be great.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod
I jut can't see any reason of the EW picking up her/his wolves from the stack of Spm, Spawn, Ang etc..
Yeah, I don't see much point in the EW choosing Ang either - especially since he's not playing.
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:22 AM   #104
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Apologies for showing up late, all...I'll probably be mentioning some old stuff, but here we go.

A suggestion was made earlier to lynch people who were *not* likely to be a seer, ranger, etc, and my name came up on the list as an unlikely pick and therefore suggested lynchee. I feel that this is somewhat unfair. I certainly do not profess to be such a person as would be wanted by both sides, or to be one of those lucky enough to be gifted. However, I feel that dismissal of anyone, including the other names on the list, is a mistake. Perhaps both wizards wanted an unlikely pick--it makes it that much more likely that the certain person would not be picked by the other wizard, or that they would be lynched for their suspected role. If that makes any sense.

I thought I'd throw my two coins' worth in, as it applies to me, even though it seems that everyone has moved on from this particular issue.

I am leaning toward agreeing with my mum on the subject of Loki, though. There's something in his attitude that just sets me on edge. It's not necessarily a bad thing, as we're all bound to disagree with one another at some point, but he seems a little overly antagonistic.

And Phantom: Make me dinner? Aww, how kind of you! *blushes* *warily eyes Diamond-mum's battledores*

(EDIT)- (OOC-I just noticed this, and I think it is fitting in a way that my 300th post would find its home here)
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:24 AM   #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
Just checking: Does this day end in 3 hours?
I'm working on the basis that the Day ends at 10pm GMT - in about three and a half hours from now. If I am wrong, please someone tell me, as I will otherwise miss my vote.

Some thoughts to follow ...
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:27 AM   #106
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*cries*

Why do you all write so much!? It takes so long to go through and then you feel cheated when you reach the end because half of it's just random banter anyway.

But, enough complaining! It won't help us find these wizards. So, things that caught my eye.

Loki's attitude is an obvious one. In the past such extreme defensiveness over the slightest little thing has been viewed as suspicious behaviour. Also, his continual repetition about the EW being most likely to choose him because he's a newbie sent up flags. You've pointed it out once, ok, but to do it two or three times and make a big thing of it? I just thought it odd.

Gurthang and his 'go after the wizards' plan I thought a good one. If we can rid ourselves of the EW soon, we will have fewer wolves to contend with. phantom's point about it not mattering that we have very few gifteds since we would have so few wolves is also a good one.

Oh and it was that suggested certain people would be chosen for certain roles. Please GW if you want this village to survive DO NOT choose me as Ranger! (Haha Diamond very funny )

And that was about it that I really thought worth commenting on, though there are probably things I've missed.

Now I appear to have been grounded, thanks Dad , so I must disappear for a bit. Should be back in a couple of hours though, well before the deadline don't worry.
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:28 AM   #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man
I'm working on the basis that the Day ends at 10pm GMT - in about three and a half hours from now. If I am wrong, please someone tell me, as I will otherwise miss my vote.
Isn't 10 PM GMT about 4½ hours from now? Or am I just making a mess because of time zones?

x-posted with Kath, as it would matter...
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:33 AM   #108
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Quote:
I must agree with Phantom. I jut can't see any reason of the EW picking up her/his wolves from the stack of Spm, Spawn, Ang etc.. That would be very risky indeed. A wise EW would pick her/his chances differently. And we shall see these dynamics unfold in the days to become.(Nogrod)
I can see that side to the argument and it makes sense. But what if the EW predicted this kind of thought? What if he knew we would think like this and decide to choose one of them anyway?

Now I find something odd with Oddwen (ha! get it? oh never mind). Oddwen isn't normally one to run off and not vote, so what's with this behaviour? Why would she(?) not vote and know full well that this could potentially get her into trouble tomorrow or in Days to come? This is rather odd...

OCC - Lmp, if you're there and don't mind, could you verify how long we have until the Day ends?

Edit - x-posted with Lommy and my belovecd Kath (hurry back!!)
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:33 AM   #109
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Lommy, 6pm EDT = midnight here and 10pm in England. It's now ~8:30 which leaves the villagers 3 and a half hours to vote.
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:35 AM   #110
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I am so confused now.

Spawn - you seem to know. What timezone are you in? GMT + 2 or 3?
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:35 AM   #111
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Yeah, Saucey...check your clock. I'm in EST, and 6 EST is 4 and a half hours from now.

Who is looking most suspicious now to me?

Sauce: He seemed a little fast to discount Loki, and his suggested werewolf teams seemed too cut and dried for me. While I agree that Loki is (to put it gently) obnoxious, it can only help the village to know who was turned twice, and no one else has come forward to deny his claim.

No one else is really standing out much...honestly in a village of this size, I expected to see it...noisier, I guess. I can actually keep up though! Yay!
(We'll see if I change my tune during the week.)

I did reread Nogrod's posts as I said I would, and found them....

Inconclusive. Nogrod is a hard nut to crack first day though, because whether innocent or guilty he completely changes his style between day 1 and day 2. Withholding judgement.
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:41 AM   #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant
Lommy, 6pm EDT = midnight here and 10pm in England. It's now ~8:30 which leaves the villagers 3 and a half hours to vote.
But aren't we in +3 GMT because of the daylight saving time? That would make it 1AM...

Quote:
Now I find something odd with Oddwen
I agree with my older brother here. I don't like people who don't vote. That will just leave the other villagers with one bit of evidence less for or against the person in question. According to my werewolf lorebook, werewolves and gifteds are the most reluctant to make choices, but as there are no gifteds around at the moment, Oddwen is a bit suspicious...

edit: xed with Cailín and Jenny
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:41 AM   #113
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Time Zone Clarification: The game ends at 6 PM EDT. It is now 1:50-ish EDT. That means the day ends in about 4 hours and 10 minutes, give or take, as my computer's clock is a couple minutes off.

Edit: my clock is apparantly 10 minutes off. 4 hours and 20 minutes.
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:43 AM   #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cailín
However, we might assume the Evil Wizard does not follow your train of thought.
Quite possible. But since so many people seem to have been thinking along the same lines, I think it more likely that s/he does. The EW is almost certain to be one with experience of Werewolves.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Cailín
Logically, the Good Wizard would scry those whom he believes likely to be the Evil Wizard. And likely candidates for that profession are generally those you deliberately excluded from your list.
I’m not so sure. Would someone who was likely to be scryed or dreamed of early on really volunteer to be the EW? And would they be selected as such? I rather doubt it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
I can't help thinking that the EW might have actually chosen these "big guys" since he/she might predict that we make the kind of assumptions of intelligent-but-not-big-guys -players as I did in my last post. It seems that the theory is quite basic since it occured to me without much thinking, so I think the EW would try to avoid such predictable choices.
The EW most likely has plenty of time to go for the “big names”. I still think it highly unlikely that s/he would go for anyone likely to be dreamed of (or lynched) on Day 1. The fact that the theory is an obvious one would not stop the EW following it, as it still leaves a lot of names to choose from.


Quote:
Originally Posted by spawn
Well, usually the villagers are ready to give a newcomer the benefit of doubt, a Seer won't usually bother to dream of someone completely new and depending on who the Wizards are, I think it's possible that the idea of making Loki a Wolf intrigued the EW.
I am not disregarding Loki because he was a likely Seer dream, but because he is a likely Day 1 lynch (more likely than many others). Anyone perusing the discussions which occurred prior to the arrival of our Wizards would have been able to deduce as much.


Quote:
Originally Posted by JennyHallu
... but SPM, you didn't even mention that in your "lists", making up three possible wolf teams that did not include Loki at all. That struck me as odd, if not a little careless coming from you.
He’s not on my list because I do not trust his claim and because he falls into the “possible Day 1 lynch” category.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Gurthang
Which is, ironically, saying that we should be looking for those of less 'ww repute'. Not a pleasant thing to be accusing people of. In fact, I'm entirely offended that I am even considered on you list.
Ah, being on the list does not make you a worse Werewolf player than the “big names”. In fact, it should be taken as a compliment, as I listed those players who I would want on my side, if I was the EW, but who are less likely to be spotted or lynched on Day 1 than some others I could mention.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
I think we should preferably look at the actions of people (I know it's difficult on day 1), since we really can't predict the wizard tactics (or at least I can't).
All in good time. As this is Day 1, I see no reason not to use other strategies to help us find the Wolves or the EW. Considering who might have been chosen as the EW, and who the EW might have chosen as a Wolf are two such strategies.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Celuien
Killed wolves can be replaced overnight, so why bother to save them in the day and risk a self-exposure?
The EW wants to make as many Wolves as possible, and so is likely to try to steer the village away from lynching his/her chosen ones, provided it does not risk exposing him. S/he is the only one who knows who both of them are. We would be lucky indeed to spot him/her today, but this knowledge might serve us well in future Days.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
Now, I'm just saying, that if I were a wizard, of any persuasion, I would have chosen Lalaith. She's my number one pick for the wolf-who-was-cured. And I base that on pretty much nothing but a feeling.
An excellent point. Lalaith or Firefoot would be good choices, but there are others too. By deleting from my previous list those who I think the GW might pick as a choice of Gifted, I can narrow it down further, as follows:

Azaelia, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Diamond or Gurthang

My vote will come later, but it will most likely be for one of those.
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:45 AM   #115
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Okay... I got confused, too. I thought most of us were following daylight saving time.
I'm in +2 zone, but due to DST it's +3 added to GMT 0. However, in England the time is GMT +1, once again due to DST putting Lommy, Nogrod and I two hours ahead of them.

If the deadline is at 10pm GMT 0, then yes, it's 1am here.

edit: Thanks, Zali, for the clarification.
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:49 AM   #116
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Well, I return armed slightly by having read up till now, but how much that will do for me, I don't know.

This game is going to be very very confusing, and is proving so already. My stratagy is to freestyle it and see what happens. I think that's what we'll all have to do.

Here's some brief comments and thoughts of mine.

*The EW and GW are each going for the same people. It least on the surface. (They may deviate from my brian's logic, if you see what I mean.) I'm not sure what this means exactly, but it is an interesting point.

*I'm not going to touch the Loki bandwagon. Loki will have to sort himself out, and i want no part in it. There are pros and cons for either wizard scrying/cursing him, so there is no conlusive conclution that can be reached. As always, there are bluffs, double-bluffs, triple-bluffs, and nth-bluffs, so play it by ear, is waht I say.

*This arrugment goes for people like SpM, tp, morm, eomer, and others. So we'll just have to wait as see waht develops.

*Gurthang, I believe, was the first to bring up the point about finding the Wizards. Of course, I agree completely, that is certainly sound logic. But I at least have no idea how to go about this. Any thoughts as to what kind of trail they'll be leaving. I can't imagine any, other that general paranoia. Of course, be careful what you say becuase they will take theri cues for you.

*Randomness will prevail (at least today), or apathy.

Because I don't waht apathy to prevail, I will attack the self-proclaimed "Wizard of Apathy", Nilp. Hi-ya!

++Nilp

gotta run!
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:54 AM   #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zali
4 hours and 20 minutes.
That makes sense, as it is when the previous Night started. So that's 11pm here. I have time to vote later. Thanks Zali.

The phantom's point notwithstanding, I still think that we should try to avoid inadvertently "outing" the GW. There is likely to be a better time to lose him/her.


Quote:
Originally Posted by JennyHallu
Sauce: He seemed a little fast to discount Loki, and his suggested werewolf teams seemed too cut and dried for me.
Given the number of villagers, I am trying to narrow down the field. You don't have to agree with me. I have stated why I think Loki an unlikely pick for the EW, and I stand by it.

I am disinclined to vote for Oddwen, as her "no vote" draws attention to her. An unlikely move for a Wolf. That narrows my list down further.

Back later ...
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:55 AM   #118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
Isn't 10 PM GMT about 4½ hours from now? Or am I just making a mess because of time zones?
Hopefully you are just miscalculating. At least the last post by lmp -opening the game was made on 1am (our time) = 10pm gmt.

So sorry, but it's frustrating, when someone says, "I'll be back at six" - so six what, where, whence??? You have your time and we have ours. You can't just think, that we will automatically see your times when you just mention them from your own point of view... So take heed to the others also...
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Old 05-13-2006, 11:58 AM   #119
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Well, I am going to vote now as I cannot be sure I will be back on later. I might be, but just in case.

I have no idea whom the Evil Wizard might have cursed. Sure, Saucepan Man lists some likely options, but it all depends on the EW and most if not all of these I would also consider to be great choices for Gifteds. However, we do not have any Gifteds yet.

Also, all things considered, it seems probable (though my no means certain) that the EW is among those intelligent players who are still no immediate Seer dreams.

++ODDWEN

She is smart and could be very cunning, but is easily overlooked in a large village. She is therefore a good to-be-cursed option. Maybe even a wizard, though I cannot say I would know whether she has quite enough time on her hands.

She said she would probably not vote, which I don't like. Possibly a wrong move for a wolf -since it draws attention to her- but possibly not.

She's odd.

Last edited by Cailín; 05-13-2006 at 11:59 AM. Reason: cross-posted with SpM and Nogrod
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Old 05-13-2006, 12:05 PM   #120
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cailín
I also must say that I do not really understand your reasoning concerning Loki, Celuien. If sowing confusion purposedly is not reason enough to get you lynched on Day one, what is?
Agreed.

Quote:
Anyone who is saying or thinking that the EW may want to challenge soon is off their rocker. The EW wants things to drag on as long as possible. The EW WILL NOT CHALLENGE EARLY.
I, at least, am not saying the EW will want to challenge soon. What I said was that I think the benefits of the innocents knowing the identity of the GW would not outweight the potential costs should the EW somehow manage to maneuver him/herself into a good position before the GW does (the optimal position for the EW being that there are a fair number of wolves and few or no gifteds, and the optimal position for the GW being that there are few wolves and all 3 gifteds).

Knowing the identity of the GW will also help the EW's team. They'll scour the GW's posts for clues as to the identities of the gifteds (once we have some gifteds...)

I'm not saying I suspect those who have suggested the GW should reveal him/herself. Just saying I think you've got a bad idea there...
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