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Old 12-03-2007, 03:31 PM   #281
Feanor of the Peredhil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Farael
For the time being, I still think Sally is just awfully suspicious and that we should lynch her
I can't help but agree. A great deal because of this post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Perhaps we shall see my friend, perhaps we shall see.

No totally kidding. I just meant that no matter WHO got lynched, regardless of whether it was me or someone else, lynching more than one person was a bad plan. Sorry for the confusion. Or am I?
Really, it strikes me as odd that an innocent this far into the game would intentionally create chaos like this.
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:33 PM   #282
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Two things that caught my eye:

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green Wolf
Volo is troubling me greatly at the moment. Though his latest post explained a little, there is definitely something there I don't like. Just a gut-feeling, probably.
[...] I'm ready to go for Volo as well if there is a great possibility of a double-lynch that my voting for Volo would prevent.
and

Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
I have now gone back and read the posts of A Little Green.

She strikes me as somebody who has failed to notice a couple of important things or is intentionally ignoring them.

First, she continually asks what is so suspicious about morm, despite the fact that reasons for suspicion have been given already. Second, she doesn't seem to understand why I'm being careful about voicing opinions and why I've made a couple of jokes about not being eaten.

The first point, as stated earlier, could indicate a morm-Green partnership.
Quote:
Since A Little Green does seem to be kind of new here, I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt for now and go with

++mormegil
Okay, I suspected Green because she was too careful, and indeed she was...classic newbie behaviour. That's why her quote about Volo gets to me. She says he's troubling her, but she's not sure because it's more of a gut feeling. Then she says she'd be willing to vote for him to prevent a double-lynch. She does, though in an effort to save herself. It could've easily been a wolf-on-wolf vote.

Menel's post makes me uncomfortable. He goes on about how he finds Green suspicious and comes up with this Green-morm theory. In the end, he concludes that Green's suspiciousness is just newbie behaviour and votes morm. Could that be a wolf trying to save his mate?

Other thoughts:

Why was Legate killed? Well, he wasn't seriously suspected by anyone and perhaps the wolves noticed that. Is it possible they thought he was the seer? I don't know...I fear putting too much thought into seer theories after the discussion it led to yesterDay..

Anyways, I'm still not quite sure about Lommy. While she was persistant on Green yesterDay, she did make a big deal about not voting for her Day 1 because she was a newbie. Still, I think I might bump her down to the neutral zone because she doesn't seem quite as suspicious as she did yesterDay.

Even as a newbie, I don't think Green would go to such great lengths to protect a fellow wolf, so that makes morm innocentish in my eyes.

EDIT: Mass X-ed from #271 on. Geesh...

EDIT: No, wait...I x-ed with Kuru's post too. You guys are posting too fast for me to catch up!
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:33 PM   #283
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Crossed with Sally.

[expression of malcontent]
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Last edited by Feanor of the Peredhil; 12-03-2007 at 05:47 PM. Reason: content. to keep it family friendly, as requested by morm on the admin thread
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:34 PM   #284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
*runs about wreaking further havoc among the village, just to see what kind of reactions she can garner*


Oh, how tempted I am to come up with another off-the-wall vote. But I think if I did it again today there might be a holy furry uprising and I would die at the hands of the mob. Thus I'll keep my mouth shut today (voting wise at least hehe) until I can get a grasp of what you others think. In other words, the fun has only begun, but I'm taking a several hour sabattical from my intrigues.
Ok, THAT'S IT. I'm voting for you unless the Seer him/her self has a better plan. While I enjoy being odd and off the walls quite a lot, I at least try to put SOME meassure of content into my posts on Day 3!! And most importantly, since we nailed ourselves a wolf, there IS some hard evidence to be found.
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:34 PM   #285
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Thanks Volo, the list is quite useful.

About Sally, if I were her I would make a post to try and defend and maybe explain my decisions and actions more clearly. Because all the explanations have, at least in my case, only managed to make me more confused and suspicious.

This last "we shall see" is not what I would expect from an ordo. This lack of arguments makes me think she's a wolf that finds it difficult to get out of this difficult situation.
I mean, were she an ordo, which I for now doubt, I would expect some more defensiveness...
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:38 PM   #286
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Farael View Post
Ok, THAT'S IT. I'm voting for you unless the Seer him/her self has a better plan. While I enjoy being odd and off the walls quite a lot, I at least try to put SOME meassure of content into my posts on Day 3!! And most importantly, since we nailed ourselves a wolf, there IS some hard evidence to be found.




Frankly I'm too lazy to defend myself. Last game I got suspected (if only briefly) for saying the first day that I knew only of my own innocence, and this game I don't want to bother to convince you. And I don't plan on stirring up havoc really, just testing everyone's reactions to my posts. Some are quite intriguing, to say the least.
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:39 PM   #287
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Oh man, all this posting is going tooo fast!

Anyway, just cross-posted with a lot, probably will with this post as well...I mean I somehow manage to confuse everyone unintetionally pretty much every first day...but Sally seems to try.

The question for me is what does she want to achieve as an innocent?
Because if she turns out to be an innocent, I shall be very, very, very disappointed with the playing style as it's pretty much cobblerish and not helping us at all. She simply can't be an ordo...
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:39 PM   #288
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...although I have to admit there are strong elements of confusion coming from Sally's posts at the moment.
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:49 PM   #289
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Like I've said it before, I feel that Sally is a Wolf. Reasons:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo View Post
Sally: Now she sure hunts morm! She constantly flirts with the idea of being a Wolf, which seems like something a Wolf wouldn't do, but it's driving me crazy. I'm capable of imagining a Wolf who does that, even a newbie Wolf - no, especially a newbie Wolf. Sally appologised that she wouldn't be productive, and truly, she hasn't been productive. I'm thinking of she might be a Wolf who thinks of being very far from being lynched - there's not enough try there, as if her appologisive tone is an excuse for just being around.
The more I read her posts, the more I feel that that's our Wolf.
And besides she doesn't seem to be sad at all for not being productive, on the contry she smiles a lot and I have a feeling that she simply doesn't care for the survival of the Village.

What I don't want is a bandwagon starting from the very morning, because the earlier we vote the less of the Day we use to discuss things.

And like I've said before, morm has been targeted by both Lily (Kuru has it here.) and Sally (I mean her constant suspicion and votes) in rather wierd situations.


I found a little more:
Lily's post about The Might doesn't look like something about a Wolf partner. It is more like "trying too hard" to look helpful to me.
The Might rises higher on my Innocent list.

Aganzir suspects Lily quite strongly here. Again, I don't feel a Wolf partner would have done that to a friend so early. I seem to recall that this is the strongest suspicion on Lily on Day1. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Aganzir stayes high and Innocent.


I have very little clue of who might be the fourth Wolf if I'm right about Sally and morm. Probably not Fea. I'd say Menel or Farael, but I'll not get too certain about it.

It's late and I should go to sleep. Xd with everything since #285.
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:50 PM   #290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Might View Post
Oh man, all this posting is going tooo fast!

Anyway, just cross-posted with a lot, probably will with this post as well...I mean I somehow manage to confuse everyone unintetionally pretty much every first day...but Sally seems to try.

The question for me is what does she want to achieve as an innocent?
Because if she turns out to be an innocent, I shall be very, very, very disappointed with the playing style as it's pretty much cobblerish and not helping us at all. She simply can't be an ordo...
Ack my internet keeps dying! I start a post, say something, go to post, and it dies! I'm cursed :S

Again, not answering to the "can't be an ordo" theory, but rather to my posting style. Dang it I can't stay away from the bloody game like I said I was going to, but when I get back I'm going to have an actual post. In the meantime I want to get as much stirred up as possible and make as many people talk as I can muster. As I alluded to before, I want plenty to reply to when I get back and plenty to reference from other people. And if you want to lynch me for it, I don't blame you, because I probably seem like a complete nut case. If you do though, make sure to look back at today's posts and see what's been thrown around. I'm perfectly willing to stir up stuff and get killed if it helps the village as a whole sniff out a werewolf.

Oh dear and I'm late for work almost. Much like yesterday I thought I wouldn't get on the internet but just couldn't stay away. Blast. *turning off computer in five minutes*
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Last edited by satansaloser2005; 12-03-2007 at 03:52 PM. Reason: x'd with Volo and Kuru
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:53 PM   #291
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Just a post of all of Legate's most recent posts (since the beginning of Day 2) to maybe help me or you find some clues. I apologize for the length. I also edited out the smilies as I'm not allowed to have as many.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
NOTICE: cross-posted with all since Fea's long post "Everybody that directly mentioned her". I don't have time (or more, energy) to write another thing corresponding to the posts I x-posted with, but I will surely think about them till tomorrow. The main point of this is that the concerned person, morm, has posted meanwhile.

I don't have probably much to add to what was already said. I believe most of what was voiced makes sense, except for, as always, my wife, who is chatting here and making improbable theories instead of preparing something to eat for me (that's how it works at us Sackville-Bagginses). What I mean: Agan, the reasons you say could have been also reasons for her getting killed seem to be very, very weak points. I mean, seriously, I don't think anyone would kill Valier only because he considered her hunches dangerous or that he was a quiet one (that seems really silly to me because there were others speaking about quiet ones and, anyway, surely not ALL the wolves are quiet ones? Or what? Well they could be, but I believe everyone focuses, to a certain extent, on the quiet ones. At least in certain stage of the game it would come). These could have been secondary reasons, but if one of them were, there had to be also one primary reason that was not one of these two. And that I believe to be her comment:

As it was said. I think it's as simple as that: the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try). That seems the most probable to me. The question would be, what part in their reasoning plays morm - is he one of them? Could be: it's not very clever for a wolf to eliminate a person who seems to nail you, the more if he later shows to be a Seer who dreamt of you (which could very well be true), but still it's better to eliminate her when she speaks only about "hunches" and while she does not say yet "he is a wolf, because I dreamt of him". Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once. Third possibility, they simply did not care and the main thing was killing Valier. Fourth possibility, morm is one of them and he wanted to use this as a double-trick, as he could cover himself by saying "of course had I been a wolf I wouldn't have done that". But the latter seems the least probable to me, because no one says it would even work. It would be more like a random toss: okay, it will bring me in the spotlight, let's see if I can save myself or not.
But all of this is stemming from the basic idea, as I said, that Valier was killed because of being the Seer. It's not the only possibility, but for me really the most probable. I can't just imagine a clever wolf-morm saying "Arrgh! Valier voted me, we must kill her!" as the only reason. He would have three companions to calm him down, in any case.

So, as I said - I agree with the basic opinion that was outlined here, and for the finish before I go to sleep, I can say my feelings on the posts of the people who appeared here today this far. Lommy, especially her last (totally confused ) post strike me as very innocentish (if you are a wolf, Lommy, this far you are fooling me brilliantly). Sally makes me quite nervous with these cannibalistic notes, but she is always like that, as far as I noticed. The Might holds up to the image I have created of him, so even he looks more or less okay. Fea is helpful... very helpful. Does she do that always? Agan, last but not least, seems genuine, though... though. Her points that I criticised above play no role in that - they seem genuine. Simply wrong (from my POV) opinions. But the general way of the post can be also that a wolf has arrived here, realised where the wind is turning to and posted according to it. But who knows.

I'm leaving now. Bye.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Okay, I was here reading but as I said, I don't have energy to write anything new, just a conclusion: after all I have read, up to Volo's post now above me*, I still stand behind all I said in my post, so it's still valid. These are my last words for now and let me only say that morm's reply, though very, how to say that, intelligent-looking, made me think more that he indeed can be a part of the wolf-clan, prepared to create havoc centered on him with the result left to destiny, either he survives or heroically dies for the pack. It's, let's say, 60% now for me that it is like that (before, it was 50-50 for me whether he is or is not). That's the only change.

*Oh, and yes, I didn't read Farael as it seems to open a whole new topic (also from a totally "new" person), I will do so tomorrow.

Really leaving. Bye.

EDIT: okay, x-ed with Farael. What he says more or less accords to what I think - as you can read above in my post. I like this post of him. Will read the long one later. REALLY leaving. Bye.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Hmmmmmmm. I have read everything but I probably don't have anything constructive to add to the discussion right now. The best thing I can do now is to ventilate the thoughts that go through my mind on everyone:

GREEN ZONE

Farael
Lommy
Volo


YELLOW ZONE

Brinniel - like I said earlier, seems okay. Though in the last game, she seemed okay to me and was a wolf. In fact, I got similar feelings about her as I get now. But there is nothing more to support the fact.
Fea - seems trying to look helpful or simply does what she does, and there is nothing particularly suspicious about her now.
LG, though the more I read the more I am getting paranoid about her. But that's not my fault, that's how some others still speak about her...
Macalaure - where is he, anyway?
Shasta. There is very little to be gathered about him. A little out-of-game note: I once again realised that I am thinking of him as about female. And that goes on and on even though I repeatedly noticed that and tried to do something with that in about four or more earlier games. Please Shasta, do you mind if I call you differently, because Shasta and Shastanis still both seem like female names to me. Could I, for my personal purpose, call you either Shastan or Shast? I know it both sounds horrible, but it will help me much. And you can pick the one you like better

ORANGE ZONE

My lovely wife Ah heck, she's in fact almost in the yellow zone, just there is something in the way she posts... that makes me feel uncomfortable.
Kath makes me feel somewhat uneasy.
Kuru. My suspicion about him from tomorrow still lasts. Where is he toDay?
Meneltarmacil - as it was mentioned here, maybe he's a little overdoing that with his "Number five is still alive!" comments.
Mormegil Harrybelly - like I said, it's 60:40 now with him that he may be a wolf.
The Might I just made an interesting theory on what behavior he could have adopted had he been a wolf. It was based on the observation of his behavior in the last game. I'd say a wolf-Might could have picked a good innocent horse and follow his judgements, no one could blame him ("I am a newbie and I am not sure, so I follow other people whom I consider wise"). Actually, he said that in one of his first posts, but seemingly he does not do that. Maybe his hope was ruined by my negative response. Nevertheless, it's a theory I thought of when trying to imagine a wolf-Might.
Sally Like I said in my first post toDay.


RED ZONE

More or less waiting to be filled with the person who I am going to vote for.


And Morm, I did vote. I see some kind souls even explained that for me already... But whatever, seems to me that it was not your fault but probably Kath's, since she did not, for whatever reason, place my name in the list of voters, and it looks like you used the list of votes she placed in her post, right? Anyway, here you can see that it's better to see to everything yourselves and not just copy what others post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Mac, just a note. If you think my vote was fishy in any way, look at my post #105. A post before, you personally pointed out the danger of double-lynch and I was the first one who asked whether people are going to vote Nerwen and then after me there was the line of others, including you, who confirmed they'll vote for Nerwen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Very simple, Fea. It was a reply to my remark pointing at the male-chauvinistic manners in the Sackville-Bagginses' family. Though I must say it's a good objection to be raised, since if at any hobbit family, it definitely does nor work like that at the Sackville-Bagginses from what we know. I have to remember that for further, since it was obviously off-role.

But anyway, it is a comment that does not concern the game itself.

And by the way, Aganzir is a "she".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Alright, some views on the current situation.

I see many people speak about Lilla Greenhand here as being suspicious. Well, for myself I can say she seemed more or less genuine to me at the beginning and that this image is beginning to dissolve slowly, as I said before. The opinions she holds in her #223 could make me suspect her more: given her overall behavior, she seems to follow certain long-time suspects, and she holds to them whatever the case. Also, she seems to defend morm, which, in the case he were a were a were a were wolf (sorry, that was the keyboard), could point to her as a pack-mate, and vice versa. But the main thing are the long-time suspects, as I said - bite and hold, maybe once the bit of flesh will fall off. That moves her to the orange zone for me.

However, what strikes me as terribly wolfish was Sally's post:

And even the rest of it. I don't see that she would be as much attacked upon, but look what she does! "It is unlikely that both of US are wolves" - what is that supposed to mean? I would understand if she said that about someone else. I would understand if she said that at the point when, let's say, morm revealed a wolf and she were accused. But this? Why? How? What?
I simply don't get this comment. I said before what I thought about her posting, and I tried to be reserved because I had problems with not being suspicious on her because of her style even if she were innocent. But I cannot resist now and switch her into the red alert zone. Unless there appears another candidate in my red zone, or unless there is any voting crisis and threat upon someone whom I consider innocent, I'll probably vote her toDay.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
"Not much time marine, so listen up. I'm opening the hangar door..."

I can already see the votes flying around like mad. Based on previous suspicion,

++sally

EDIT: x-ed with Mac and Volo. Volo, have you waited a minute, maybe you would have had a reason
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Sally -> morm
Farael -> Rikae
Shasta -> Volo
morm -> Volo (Volo 2, morm 1)
Fea -> Lily (Volo 2, morm 1, Lily 1)
Kath -> Lily (Volo 2, Lily 2, morm 1)
Aganzir -> Lily (Lily 3, Volo 2, morm 1)
Menel -> morm (Lily 3, Volo 2, morm 2)
Volo -> Lily (Lily 4, Volo 2, morm 2)
Legate -> Sally (Lily 4, Volo 2, morm 2, sally 1)
Brinn -> Lily (Lily 5, Volo 2, morm 2, sally 1)
Mac -> Lily (Lily 6, Volo 2, morm 2, sally 1)


So given the remaining votes it looks like it's clearly LiGre (liquor?) today. Only let me voice my pity over the fact that from such a big bandwaggon there is worse to obtain any info about the voters (be she a wolf or not).

And TM, you missed something - the votes are far further now already (and maybe more while I am writing this).

EDIT: x-ed with mac and liquor
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:53 PM   #292
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Okay, I really don't get what's going on with Sally's posts.

To intentionally cause confusion in such an obvious way is practically suicidal for a wolf. Yet at the same time, why would an innocent want to confuse us?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Frankly I'm too lazy to defend myself. Last game I got suspected (if only briefly) for saying the first day that I knew only of my own innocence, and this game I don't want to bother to convince you.
Okay, so perhaps you don't care about your own life. But if you are innocent, you should care about the village and make an effort.

EDIT: X-ed with Volo, Sally, Might
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:54 PM   #293
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Now that was something inexcusable. My poor dear husband. I'll give you Sharkey, you dirty murdering ruffians!!
And Might, don't you dare to speak about my husband like that!

Ok.

Menel, a nice find about those getting killed being Volo's main suspects. I'd like to mention though that I wouldn't be much surprised to see him trying double bluff. But I'm also a bit surprised how little time it took you to notice whose suspects the kills were.

My main suspects at the moment are
sally
Brinniel / Menel. I think it sounds unlikely both of them are wolves. At the moment it's just a feeling based on how they treat each other. I'll read their posts again later.
morm, given how Greenie treated him.

I don't know what I should think of Lommy. I think I'll have to reread (tomorrow) her posts before saying anything.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sally
Frankly I'm too lazy to defend myself.
If you are an innocent, that's quite selfish. In the worst possible situation we lynch you because you didn't bother to defend yourself after making pretty suspicious comments and find out you're innocent, thus weakening our chances. Werewolf is not an individual sport.

Off to sleep.

edit: xed since Volo
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Old 12-03-2007, 03:56 PM   #294
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Quote:
I want to get as much stirred up as possible and make as many people talk as I can muster.

-and-

I'm perfectly willing to stir up stuff and get killed if it helps the village as a whole sniff out a werewolf.

-Sally
But if you're innocent what's the point of getting everybody talking about you?

Its not like we don't have other leads to follow at this point. We don't really need innocents dancing out on limbs and getting everyone confused and suiciding themselves at this particular moment.

Of course, if you are a wolf what is the point about getting everybody talking about you too...

The Strange is strong in this one.
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:08 PM   #295
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Sorry for any offense Aganzir, though I am not sure what you mean.

Lol, that made me laugh Kuruharan, too bad none of the wolves is called the Strange or else things would have been quite clear.

I am not quite certain about the way Sally wants to help us notice who the wolves are by behaving like this. You would notice that it's pretty much all that accuse you, and the wolves at least at this point will probably do the same, as it would be too incriminating to support Sally. So actually...it doesn't help us at all.

It could well be that the wolves noticed that Sally is a main suspect and use this confusion to keep us only concentrated on this.
I say we should maybe try to talk about other possible wolves as well.
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:14 PM   #296
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Aganzir, I read Volo's posts in order to do an analysis of him that I posted yesterDay. That bit about his supects was one of the first things I noticed about him.

Mormegil is still my prime suspect, now more than ever. His frequent agreement with A Little Green and her defense of him, along with the mysterious shift in his playing style, just screams "I'm a wolf!" to me.

The reason I suggested that A Little Green might just be a newbie and not a wolf was only used to justify a tricky choise of vote on my part. A lot of what mad her look suspicious was also present in morm and I reasoned that while there was a possible explanation in Greenie's case, morm should have known better. I was not trying to say that A Little Green was innocent, just that morm looked more wolfish than she did.

As for Sally, I hadn't been paying her a lot of attention, but I'll go check her posts now.
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:15 PM   #297
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It could well be that the wolves noticed that Sally is a main suspect and use this confusion to keep us only concentrated on this.
-The Might
Except she's the one doing this. If she is a wolf and is doing this as cover...we'll have to kill her sooner or later.

If she's not a wolf...ummm...yeah.

Quote:
I say we should maybe try to talk about other possible wolves as well.
- The Might
Yeah, what happened to the morm-thwacking I was expecting to engage in today...

Unless of course this is a clever plot to save him...
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:19 PM   #298
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Maybe this would be too risky...but what about a morm / Sally double-lynch?
I mean, I am not sure what to think about such an attempt, that is why I'm asking what your opinion is?
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:22 PM   #299
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Except she's (Sally) the one doing this. If she is a wolf and is doing this as cover...we'll have to kill her sooner or later.

Yeah, what happened to the morm-thwacking I was expecting to engage in today...

Unless of course this is a clever plot to save him...
It may be a plot to save him, but I'm not too sure as to the "clever" part... after all, Sally herself was the one who said that Morm and her just could NOT be wolves together.

Yeah, right...
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:24 PM   #300
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Maybe this would be too risky...but what about a morm / Sally double-lynch?
I mean, I am not sure what to think about such an attempt, that is why I'm asking what your opinion is?
I'm not big on double-lynchings. They are too easy to mess up...and the wolves get to vote too...

And what if they are both innocent after all...

On the other hand...attempting to organize one might flush some people out.

I'm still inclined to say "no" though...

And I have a feeling this might become a topic of heated (and totally beside the point) contention if we tried it.
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:29 PM   #301
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I've gone back and read Sally's posts, and I was quite surprised at the results.

Sally appears to say nothing good or bad about herself, and hardly leaves anything to follow, except for the fact that she feels very regretful about not being able to participate more. Her recent comment about not even bothering to defend herself is, well, familiar to me, since it's happened to me before. Sally is basically the kind of person who tries desperately to participate and be helpful, but whose desperation eventually will get her lynched for giving the impression of wolfishness. It's happened to my ancestors before.

And yes, I know that people are going to call me a wolf for writing what I just wrote, but I just can't see any evidence for her being either an innocent or a wolf. I know that a wolf could post like her just as easily and the desperation would make sense there as well (my wolf ancestors have been lynched like that before), but I really don't think there's enough substance in her posts to tell one way or another.

Anyhow, regardless of what happens, I agree that mormegil has to be lynched, and soon. If a double lynch is what it takes to kill him, I'm willing to go for it.
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:34 PM   #302
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Three dead people to look at. Sweet.

(this post will be cross-posted with everything on page 8)


A Little Green


Before I start, let me say that I think it's very unlikely that no wolf voted for her. There are 8 votes for her. One, perhaps two must be wolvish.


Lily and the Might

Lily wrote these rather suspect lines about the Might
"His defence does look very feeble to me, but then again that makes him seem pretty innocent if you see my point."
"The Might's self-vote struck me as odd. I would say that it was more the behaviour of a frustrated innocent than of a plotting wolf."

He returned it with this:
"I think it was A Little Green that put it best, I simply wasn't in the mood of again being voted like in the last game only because I act a bit confused and maybe confusing."
He voted her in a safe 7th position. The interaction of Lily and the Might is extremely fishy.


Lily and Sally

"Nerwen and Sally both look pretty innocent at the moment."
This could be the mentioning a fellow wolf as innocent in a minor comment. It could also be nothing.


Lily and Lommy

Lily attacked Lommy consistently and in a way that makes it appear serious. Lommy suspected Lily continuously, too, although she kept her newbieness in mind. This behavior doesn't fit to two wolves, even if they agreed on lynching each other. In the one case, they keep the village's attention on each other way too much, in the other it's not aggressive enough.


Lily and morm

I don't see why people suspect morm so much because of Lily's comments. I can't believe that a wolf-morm would have allowed a newbie-Lily-wolf to defend her as unskillfully as this.


Lily and Volo

She asks him twice to explain a point, which is suspicious. If he was innocent, wouldn't she rather have tried to put Volo's unclear statements in a bad light instead of urging him to explain? There's also:
"Volo is suspicious, but I'd be reluctant to vote for him because I don't have valid arguments against him."
Her late vote means nothing.

Volo, on the other hand, seems to be more serious with his suspicions against Lily. He didn't mention her on day one and then pursued her on day two. He gives her the almost deciding 4th vote. If a wolf tried to actively kill Lily, then Volo fits the description.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo
The other Lily-voters look good too.
I disagree and point out the convenience of this statement.


Lily and Menel

"I found Menel's continuous joking about not being eaten disturbing.
my vote today will most probably be Menel."

Menel finds her suspicious but chooses morm over her for reasons I think are understandable.


Lily and Aganzir

There's the brief interaction about loud/silent at the beginning of day 2. Aganzir only really mentions her once, declaring her suspicious.
As a wolf, she would have had options to vote otherwise and not give Lily the 3rd vote. If she wanted to sacrifice her, she would have treated the suspicion differently, I think.


Lily and Brinn

Brinn seconds one of Lily's question to Volo, which is slightly suspicious. But she finds her suspicious after her analyses, and she was careful to declare somebody suspicious in those.
She gives her the 5th vote, finally sealing her fate.


Lily and Fea

Fea gives a detailed answer about why morm is suspicious. She's the first to vote her, ideal for a wolf-on-wolf. All this would be suspicious, but her answer to Lily gives me a genuine feel.


Farael said Lily is consistently clueless, which is a slight late attempt of defense.

Kath thinks Lily suspicious and gives her the second vote. Very little to go after.


no interaction: Shasta, Kuru


only considering the interaction with Lily:

suspicious: Volo, The Might

a little suspicious: Sally, Farael

neutral: Aganzir, Menel, Fea, Kath, Kuru, Shasta

innocent: Lommy, morm, Brinn


I'll have a look at Legate and Rikae tomorrow. I won't have a lot of time and will be forced to vote early, about 3 hours before the deadline.
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:36 PM   #303
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One last thing on Sally: I feel her actions are too risky for a wolf, but I'm still not certain. Right now, I am more confused than anything.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
If you do though, make sure to look back at today's posts and see what's been thrown around. I'm perfectly willing to stir up stuff and get killed if it helps the village as a whole sniff out a werewolf.
Okay, I do agree that if she is innocent, at least one wolf is taking advantage of her strange behaviour. But Sally, I don't see why you think you need to die to help us sniff out a wolf. After all, there are plenty of trails already; we just have to look for them.

While we can't put Sally out of the picture completely, Might is right; we need to look at other suspects.

Looking at the voting yesterDay, I think there was at least one wolf-on-wolf vote, maybe more. Perhaps we should take a closer look at those who voted Green without expressing any serious suspicion of her before the voting bandwagon began. I definitely want to check into that when I return.

But for now I'm really tired and in serious need of a nap. I'll be back later tonight with some more detailed thoughts. No major flood posting from me toDay; I know you all will be so disappointed.

EDIT: mass X-ed
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:36 PM   #304
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Just to put it out there, I'm totally against multiple lynchings.

They're too easy to screw up, they're too easy to hide behind, they're not very sportsmanlike.

Still, you're right Kuru. It would be interesting to orchestrate one just to see what happens.

With the goal in mind that we not actually kill multipeople, it would be interesting to set up a multiple lynch and see who steps in at the last minute.

But that's a dangerous game to play.
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:52 PM   #305
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Just to put it out there, I'm totally against multiple lynchings.

They're too easy to screw up, they're too easy to hide behind, they're not very sportsmanlike.

Still, you're right Kuru. It would be interesting to orchestrate one just to see what happens.

With the goal in mind that we not actually kill multipeople, it would be interesting to set up a multiple lynch and see who steps in at the last minute.

But that's a dangerous game to play.
The problem with that is that we'd need all village to agree to it... if just a couple of us chose to vote on our own, then the wolves might very well orchestrate a triple-lynch by voting for a third option that has gotten a vote or two.

There's 14 of us. An ideal case would be seven and seven votes for the two suspects, but that's unlikely to happen. A more realistic scenario would be that we could expect maybe five votes for each, while four other people vote on their own. If we are unlucky, the wolves could possibly arrange it so that we wind up having three people with three votes a piece, rather than two with five/seven.

While that might point at other wolves, it'd leave us with ten people and (worst case possible) three wolves for tomorrow. If they take such a chance and manage not to look too suspicious, it'd doom the village.

And on a much simpler note, the only way a double-lynch would work out is if both lynchees are not only willing to go through with it... but also truthful about it. There's too much at risk, the wolves know it too so even if we try to orchestrate a double lynch, I highly doubt they'll fall for it and show their hand.
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:53 PM   #306
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Well, I've decided to look at the Volo-voters. It was a pretty short list, including only Shasta and... our good friend mormegil.

Morm has had enough said about him already, and I'm planning to vote for him toDay.

Shasta has been extremely silent. This worries me. We need to hear more. A certain desire to denounce morm seems to be present here, though it's to difficult to tell what that means at this point.
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Old 12-03-2007, 04:55 PM   #307
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Oh, and I think that a double-lynch does have a lot of problems with it. I was too eager to lynch morm earlier to consider that. Arranging one intentionally will be problematic, and I suggest we just vote for those we think are guilty.
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Old 12-03-2007, 05:35 PM   #308
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Two things that caught my eye:

and


Okay, I suspected Green because she was too careful, and indeed she was...classic newbie behaviour. That's why her quote about Volo gets to me. She says he's troubling her, but she's not sure because it's more of a gut feeling. Then she says she'd be willing to vote for him to prevent a double-lynch. She does, though in an effort to save herself. It could've easily been a wolf-on-wolf vote.

Menel's post makes me uncomfortable. He goes on about how he finds Green suspicious and comes up with this Green-morm theory. In the end, he concludes that Green's suspiciousness is just newbie behaviour and votes morm. Could that be a wolf trying to save his mate?

Other thoughts:

Why was Legate killed? Well, he wasn't seriously suspected by anyone and perhaps the wolves noticed that. Is it possible they thought he was the seer? I don't know...I fear putting too much thought into seer theories after the discussion it led to yesterDay..

Anyways, I'm still not quite sure about Lommy. While she was persistant on Green yesterDay, she did make a big deal about not voting for her Day 1 because she was a newbie. Still, I think I might bump her down to the neutral zone because she doesn't seem quite as suspicious as she did yesterDay.

Even as a newbie, I don't think Green would go to such great lengths to protect a fellow wolf, so that makes morm innocentish in my eyes.
Brinn has made the most sense to me. I think she is on to something honestly and I've had a bad feeling about Volo and Menel...but to be fair I still do about Lommy. To put one other in I have Kuru as a suspect. His first post today seems really dd to me. Kuru, as a veteran, should know that if I were a wolf I would never allow such a thing as what Green said. I think it far less likely that a wolf would say something like that than attack, slightly attack mind you, another wolf. Kuru, I'm a bit disappointed in your efforts.

Top suspects:

Volo
Menel
Lommy
Kuru


Mind you I've only read to just after Brinn's post that I quoted but I figured I'd better say something or I'd never get anything in at all.

Slow down on posting a bit! Now Sally is rather confusing but I'm guessing she's an innocent trying to be silly and garner reactions...though likely unfruitful
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Old 12-03-2007, 05:48 PM   #309
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Mormegil is still my prime suspect, now more than ever. His frequent agreement with A Little Green and her defense of him, along with the mysterious shift in his playing style, just screams "I'm a wolf!" to me.
This is the pot calling the kettle black but Menel this is rather lazy of you! I don't recall ever agreeing with Green. Can you provide quotes? As to my shift in playing style I have tried to address this over the past...oh 4 to 6 games I've played. I don't have as much time as I did in the past ergo the days of morm being the top poster are gone. I do what I can and I got a bit tired of being type cast for everything...so yes there is a change but it's not just this game it's longer term and intentional
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Old 12-03-2007, 05:52 PM   #310
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Kuru, as a veteran, should know that if I were a wolf I would never allow such a thing as what Green said.
As a veteran, I know that people can say things off the cuff that are out of the control of the other wolves and land themselves and others in hot water.

And there are other reasons to be suspicious of you besides just that.

You've been acting a bit odd the whole time and your vote yesterday is questionable in a number of ways.
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Old 12-03-2007, 05:56 PM   #311
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Maybe this would be too risky...but what about a morm / Sally double-lynch?
I mean, I am not sure what to think about such an attempt, that is why I'm asking what your opinion is?

Even if you suggested a Menel/Volo double lynch I would say that is foolish at this stage.

Edit: I'm only to this post so far.
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Old 12-03-2007, 06:10 PM   #312
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Morm, the points I mentioned were:

You and Green both agreed that Lommy Looked suspicious.

You and Green both suspected me based on my in-game sarcastic jokes.
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Old 12-03-2007, 06:21 PM   #313
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If it's quotes you want:
Mormegil suspects Lommy

Mormegil suspects Menel

A Little Green suspects Lommy and Menel

Though I'm feeling a bit uneasy, as these quotes don't seem to suggest quite as much of a conspiracy as I thought there was. Maybe I'm reading too much into this. However, I don't really have a lot of other leads at this point.
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Old 12-03-2007, 06:30 PM   #314
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Morm, the points I mentioned were:

You and Green both agreed that Lommy Looked suspicious.

You and Green both suspected me based on my in-game sarcastic jokes.
So if two people have similar suspects for similar reasons and one turns out to be a wolf the other is by defualt? Specious at best Menel.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuru
As a veteran, I know that people can say things off the cuff that are out of the control of the other wolves and land themselves and others in hot water.

And there are other reasons to be suspicious of you besides just that.

You've been acting a bit odd the whole time and your vote yesterday is questionable in a number of ways.
Fair point but what, I ask was odd about my vote yesterday? I didn't have a lot of time and voted with my gut on somebody who I suspected. I don't follow the odd the whole time concept and I could and would say the same for you and Fea...the only person I play with a lot and isn't acting very different is Lommy which is the one saving grace for her in me not thinking she as guilty looking as my other 3 suspects. Kath I'd like to hear more from you.
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Old 12-03-2007, 06:39 PM   #315
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Don't forget how A Little Green defended you last time. As for whether or not you allowed it, I doubt a senior wolf would want himself to get caught giving adivce to a newbie wolf and be lynched for it.

Then there's the matter of what could be an attempt to frame Volo. Again, you seem to be a likely candidate for that.
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Old 12-03-2007, 08:21 PM   #316
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I just read all of A Little Green's posts again and I must say that it is interesting how much she talked about Lommy and Volo but didn't ever really bring anything up of any substance against them. It's the classic wolf accusing wolf but not really knowing why but making sure to mention them so that when one is lynched it doesn't look so obvious. The usual pattern, as a wolf, is to 'suspect' one of your fellows but not to a point to actually get them lynched and keep one in the innocent category along with others.

My guess is that one of the two is guilty. She spoke more about Lommy and less about Volo but when her fate was sealed she voted Volo, which is telling in my opinion. Again, I feel less inclined to Lommy's guilt and more to Volo's.
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Old 12-03-2007, 08:21 PM   #317
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Hey all, it's gone 2 am here but I thought I'd pop in with a quick post. I haven't read much of the thread from toDay but what worries me is that some people, I'm mostly looking at Kuru, have popped up and gone 'right, let's lynch morm'. I'm actually a lot more comfortable with morm toDay. I never saw the connection between him and Greenie that many people mentioned and unless Brinniel turns out to be a wolf I doubt morm is one. Had Greenie been innocent I would have been more conviced of morm's possible wolvishness as I wouldn't have put it past him to set up an innocent like that, but as it is I'm becoming more enamoured of this set up idea.

I just really don't like the single-minded pursuit thing. I've done it before I know, and it always seems to end in disaster. Like all that arguing between Rikae and Nerwen on Day 1, it had most of the village convinced that at least one was a wolf and they both turned out to be innocents. The fact that Lommy and morm had the same thing going yesterDay has me thinking they're both innocent, as the back and forth posts felt much as Rikae and Nerwen's did.

Also, no double lynches if we can help it! We are far more likely to lynch two innocents than even one innocent and a wolf. Let's not take our numbers down ourselves.

So, apart from taking morm off the list I'm going to stick with my suspects from yesterDay for now, which leaves me with:

The Might
Brinn

I actually haven't had a proper look at Brinn which I wanted to do (not an analysis, she's done too many posts for that!) but I caught The Might's first post toDay and it seemed a bit overdone.

I might also add Menel to that list of suspects. I know it was Kuru I was complaining about earlier but he feels like a misguided innocent to me. Menel could be too, some of his comments smack of not concentrating on the game a lot, such as his belief that Rikae is still in it, but his arguments are still ... I can't explain it, he's just not fitting right to me.

Also, despite what someone said, I do want to take a look back at what Legate said over the past couple of Days. If the wolves have already tried one set up (this is assuming morm is innocent) there is nothing to say they haven't tried a second.

Back later.
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Old 12-03-2007, 08:30 PM   #318
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I also noticed something else that is almost comical, Legate felt I was guilty too. I think the wolves are busy working on setting me up which is odd to me...at least they are accomplishing their goal of us not talking about them. What I wonder is if they want me dead so bad why don't they just kill me? I would posit that at least one of the 'let's kill morm' crowd is a wolf. They probably got together and said that one of us will take up the reigns and work it out while the other two may follow. I would think Kuru has this and he intentionally took the risk of posting so expressly and so quickly because he is REALLY good and can pull that off. Again, that lends itself to my belief that he is guilty. Menel I'm not sure of as Kath points out he is not paying too much attention...is that wolfish? It could easily be...why would he need to read who died? But generally, not always, wolves are a bit more obervant to details...but I think it's the former in this case.
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Old 12-03-2007, 08:40 PM   #319
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I'm sorry about Rikae. That was an honest mistake.

And to be completely honest, I don't usually read every single post on the thread, especially if I've been away for a few hours and a whole page has been created in my absence. I do go back and read posts if I feel the need, though.
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Old 12-03-2007, 08:46 PM   #320
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Actually, I'm not quite as sure of mormegil now as I was before. I'll take some time in the morning to check out his posts in detail, then put up an analysis. For now, though, I'll stick around to answer questions but I doubt I'll do much more here until after I've slept on it.
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