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Old 12-25-2007, 03:08 AM   #161
Isabellkya
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Alright, the relatives are gone and I've a bit of time before I must sleep. So going over the posts thus far.. I've found a few things which just kinda jump out at me. I know people have voted by now.. so I'll just converse with myself. :P

I haven't played many games here with Shasta where he's lived long enough to get a read on his style. But I have played with him elsewhere many times. All in all, he seems to be taking a defensive stance against accusations of his possible wolfness due solely on his new (I guess) playing style here; in becoming more vocal upon requests from others in previous games. The majority of his posts are just fodder.. they don't seem to contain much of substance. He isn't on my suspect list yet; as I've heard tale of a previous game where he'd been a wolf and had been taking hints from his fellow wolf/wolves as what to say/do. I haven't see such things yet, and I would believe it would be pretty obvious if such things happened.

Nerwen on a whole bothers me just a bit. Her posts seem to be mainly about game mechanics, and agreeing with others. In one post, she even went as far as to say that she could be convinced to vote a particular way. At first it struck me as quite innocent, yet combined with her other posts; it was like a flashing radar light went off. I get the feel, that it could be her taking subtle hints from her wolfish pals.

To me Nogrod seems to be his usual self, especially in his attitude towards wanting to lynch the quieter players over the louder ones. Quite understandable.. and I think I've seen such comments in every single game I've played with him. Probably because he always targets me as one of the more quieter players, and it is hard to not notice.

Valier is another edging up to the top of the suspect list, as everything he's said; seems to be non-commital (unless I mis-read something.)

Macalure's insistance on lynching Nogrod is a bit worrying. Innocents have the freedom and luxury of debating and retracting votes when possible. Wolves however, when on a lynch-hunt don't have that.

So I shall vote, and would like to see if anyone else has anything to say before deadline.

++Nerwen


X'ed with Nerwen and Aganzir.
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:28 AM   #162
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I don't really understand this Nerwen bandwagon. At least to me she looks rather innocent, and the reasons to vote her aren't the best I've seen. I must say I'm not the least surprised if there are a couple of wolves among the Nerwen-voters.

I am voting for

++ Nogrod

but I'm ready to switch my vote for Shasta if necessary.
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:34 AM   #163
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Okay, I went somehow through the rest of toDay's posts and I have a few things to add.

I stand behind what I said about Rikae. Now after I read all of her toDay's posts, I am pretty convinced of her being innocent.

I am glad SpM is around, though I know what he is capable to do, nothing rings my alarm on him this far. I am looking forward to what he has to say to us in the future.

I don't know what to thing about Aganzir. Given recent experiences, I know better than to trust her. She is not particularly suspicious, yet I am worried that finding her unsuspicious may actually be a reason to worry. Yet I also don't want to overreact based on oversuspiciousness. Let's say my feelings about her are not in the left nor in the right for the time being, though I'm staying alert.

Kath is one who really troubles me. I mentioned her vote above, now also her exchange with Boro. The overcombinating part of me could come up with wild theories like both of them being wolves, though then Boro's vote for Kath (retracted) would be quite strange thing for a wolf to do against a fellow wolf. Yet, a "double-trick" (like "no wolf would do such a thing") is always possible and not even that surprising from Boro.

I am kind of concerned by so little interest put in those who are not as vocal, the attention seems to focus mainly on several players. Yet in a big village on Day 1 it isn't that strange and maybe for the better, so there is not that much confusion on Day 1. So maybe now it isn't the right time, only let's not forget that in the future.

Well, time is pressing and I have to vote soon. Hope the voting madness didn't start yet.

EDIT: x-ed with Isabellkya and Aganzir.
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:36 AM   #164
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Half an hour of time and there are 8 votes left.

Did you read Rikae's latest. That was something.

I said I suspected her because she provedly twisted my words and said I posted something that I didn't to make me look bad.

Now she defences by explaining why she actually didn't mean to suggest we should lynch Legate etc. (which is totally different question).

And how she ends then?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikaewolf
Frohe Weihnachten, everybody, and be good, for goodness' sake!
I know someone says that's nothing but let me tell you that's something. That's a backbone-reaction of a wolf.

Okay, we can do it.

++ Rikae

EDIT: X'd with Agan and Legate
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:40 AM   #165
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
Half an hour of time and there are 8 votes left.

Did you read Rikae's latest. That was something.

I said I suspected her because she provedly twisted my words and said I posted something that I didn't to make me look bad.

Now she defences by explaining why she actually didn't mean to suggest we should lynch Legate etc. (which is totally different question).

And how she ends then?
I know someone says that's nothing but let me tell you that's something. That's a backbone-reaction of a wolf.

Okay, we can do it.

++ Rikae

EDIT: X'd with Agan and Legate
I don't understand that last at all. "Be good for goodness' sake" seems to me just a farewell fit for the holidays. I'm not sure I like how you call that a "backbone reaction of a wolf". Would you care to explain that?

Really, the only reason I voted Nerwen was because she had the same amount of votes as I had, but to be honest I'm seriously considering retracting my vote and voting EggNogrod. We'll see how the next few minutes play out...
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:42 AM   #166
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Well I am quite torn now. How many people are left to vote? Four? I am not sure if voting for Boro may to gain some support still. But I will try, there is still time and retractions available.

++Boro

EDIT: x-ed with Nog and Shasta
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:44 AM   #167
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A vote count, for anyone up at this hour (Merry Christmas by the way, to everyone, it's nearly 4 in the morning for me):

Nogrod 3 (Mac, Spm, Aganzir)
Nerwen 4 (Kath, Valier, Shasta, Isabellkya)
Shasta 3 (Farael, Rikae, Nerwen)
Boro 2 (morm, SPM)
Rikae 1 (Nogrod)

Edit: X'd with SPM.

Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 12-25-2007 at 03:45 AM. Reason: Added SPM's vote
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:45 AM   #168
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
Would you care to explain that?
I think it's better to lynch a werewolf when we have a chance than not. Don't you agree?

A wolf needs to be agreeable, to give out positive vibrations. Innocents need to be brave enough to step on other people's toes also.

That's a feel-good & be nice thing... "for goodness sake"... good gosh!

My argument against her I've made already earlier. This just topped it.
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:45 AM   #169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir
I don't really understand this Nerwen bandwagon.
Me neither. I can see where the Shasta-voters come from, though I disagree with them, but I don't understand why people are so suspicious of Nerwen.


Nogrod, in case the two of us will still be alive tomorrow, you'll have to explain to me what a "backbone-reaction of a wolf" is. Otherwise I might think it's a way for a wolf to justify a throwaway vote.

(exd with everything since Shasta pointed out the same I just did)
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:46 AM   #170
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Nog, now that was pretty strange what you said. Really. It was said here before that you post very little, resp. short, which is unusual for you, well, whatever, but this is the same thing as I said about Boro - taking a thing from the post that does not, in my opinion, have anything to do with the game? Again, if you said it as a joke, whatever, but basing suspicion on it? What puzzles me is that you surely know to do better, Nog!
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:48 AM   #171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
I think it's better to lynch a werewolf when we have a chance than not. Don't you agree?

A wolf needs to be agreeable, to give out positive vibrations. Innocents need to be brave enough to step on other people's toes also.

That's a feel-good & be nice thing... "for goodness sake"... good gosh!

My argument against her I've made already earlier. This just topped it.
What???

Now, all the things you said before at least sounded reasonable, but what is this??
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:48 AM   #172
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Ack! I meant Legate instead of SPM in my previous post. Sorry.
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:51 AM   #173
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have not voted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
Really, the only reason I voted Nerwen was because she had the same amount of votes as I had, but to be honest I'm seriously considering retracting my vote and voting EggNogrod. We'll see how the next few minutes play out...
Really, I know this isn't nice, but if you don't switch to Nogrod I'm going to switch to you.
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:53 AM   #174
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No, with my reason for voting Nerwen simple self defense, and EggNogrod more and more suspicious, I think I'm going to

-- Nerwen
++ Nogrod


Edit: X'd with Agan. You're right, that's not very nice. I'm tempted to take back my retraction, simply because I hate it when people attempt to force me to do things. <.<

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Old 12-25-2007, 03:53 AM   #175
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C'mon.

I'm not saying we should lynch Rikae because of that goodness sake -thing.

I have an argument which I believe is valid aganst her. Be fair for once Mac.

That was something that just kind of assured me I am right.


Oh Aganzir... Well four wolves to drive their favourite lynch as soon as they have enough innocents on their side.

That threat hopefully will be remembered toMorrow...

EDIT: X'd with Shasta
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:54 AM   #176
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Oh, what is this situation about? Till recently, I did not have any reason to suspect Nogrod. Yet this? Nog, surely you don't want me to lynch you? I have two strong pros: what you did and also that I would save Nerwen by that. Unless I am mistaken the fate of todays vote is in my hands. Oh my, don't make me do it! Yet I consider Nerwen less suspicious than you. This is ridiculous.

--Boro

++Nogrod


*shakes head*

EDIT: x-ed since Aganzir. Oh well.
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:57 AM   #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
This is ridiculous.
It is.

Remember all this toMorrow.

And happy holidays if someone doesn't come to her/his senses and fast..
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:57 AM   #178
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I don't know why I'm going to go in to explaining this...it wasn't a big deal, but Legate seems to think it is so...

My "us" comments toward Nogrod were opening jests for the most part...but point being I was simply asking Nogrod what he meant by "us." As if he is a wolf, he could be saying "us" in reference to his werewolf buddies, if he's a villager than he is referring to fellow innocents. But, by saying "us" it creates a feel good "I'm stuck in the same boat" sense, as if he is like me...when really he could be a werewolf. I'll say it again, poor communication is a problem in this game, so I'm just trying to ask for people to explain clearly If you've read the thread that has been a consistant problem, people aren't being clear.

As far as Nogrod's recent comments...what's so wierd about it Mac? Ya his vote looks like a throw away, but he's right wolves have to appear buddy buddy to get on the villagers good side. Where innocent villagers can be brutally honest and "step on others toes."
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:57 AM   #179
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Quote:
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I'm not saying we should lynch Rikae because of that goodness sake -thing.

I have an argument which I believe is valid aganst her. Be fair for once Mac.
I know, but you concluded it with it, but it was no point at all and very contrived. Notice that I haven't ever suspected you because of your suspicions of Rikae. I'm very far from being convinced by them, but if you happen to be innocent, which I very highly doubt, I will definitely reconsider them.
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:59 AM   #180
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Shield

Not happy about Nogrod being lynched. The way it happened looks odd to me.

Nerwen looks worse to me.

++NERWEN
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:59 AM   #181
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++Shasta

I don't like this new found bandwagon to lynch Nogrod. I'm not sure he's innocent but I have no clue what is going on with this sudden urge to lynch him
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Old 12-25-2007, 03:59 AM   #182
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I need to post only once on Day1 from this on...
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Old 12-25-2007, 04:18 AM   #183
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Eye end of Day 1...

Sorry, but no narrative or anything right now. It's past 4 AM- had to set my alarm just for this.

You'll learn Nogrod's role in a few hours. For right now, it's back to sleep for me. For those who have nightly activities, remember that tonight is 36 hours. You have plenty of time.

Living-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Azaelia of Willowbottom- apprentice to Rikae
Boromir88- assistant to the apprentice to Rikae
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Farael- conspiracy theorist
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
Macalaure- jailer
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
Nerwen- miller
Rikae- midwife/wise-woman
Shastanis Althreduin- herbalist
The Might- shephard
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker
Valier- basket weaver

Dead-
Nogrod- reticent lumberjack

IT IS NOW NIGHT 2. YOU MAY NOT POST.
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Old 12-25-2007, 11:37 AM   #184
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Eye Day 1 ends...

When the votes were counted, the lumberjack, Nogrod, came out ahead.

"Oh well," he said. "At least I had a bit of fun."

"Grab him!" several villagers shouted. But there was no need. Nogrod placed his hands together behind his back and made no attempt to escape. "I will meet death bravely!" he declared.

As Aganzir, the hangwoman, led Nogrod to the gallows, he espied between a gap in two houses a small boat on the shore of the lake. Due to his cooperation, his captors were gripping him only lightly, and so with a burst of super-human strength he broke both their holds as well as the ropes around his hands and arms and took off towards the boat.

"After him!" shouted Eomer, who was rather looking forward to digging a grave for Nogrod. But it was too late. Nogrod was far too quick, and had already pushed the boat out into the lake and was paddling like mad towards the fog bank that lay some thirty feet off the shore.

"The fog will surely let him pass," said Rikae, the wise-woman, "For it is clear from his physical prowess that he is in fact a Werewolf. His master controls the fog. He will go through."

As Nogrod disappeared into the mist, the villagers were certain that Rikae was correct. But even as they turned to walk back into the village, Nogrod appeared again, his back to the village, paddling with all his might directly towards them. The small vessel ground to a halt on the stony bank, and Nogrod leaped out with a laugh, but his smile died as he turned and found that the fog had betrayed him.

"Welcome back!" said Legate as he seized a broken paddle from the ground and struck Nogrod forcefully in the head.

Nogrod dropped to the ground, dead.

The fog boiled and billowed, and from its depths a voice cursed angrily.

Living-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Azaelia of Willowbottom- apprentice to Rikae
Boromir88- assistant to the apprentice to Rikae
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Farael- conspiracy theorist
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
Macalaure- jailer
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
Nerwen- miller
Rikae- midwife/wise-woman
Shastanis Althreduin- herbalist
The Might- shephard
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker
Valier- basket weaver

Dead-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)

IT IS NIGHT 2. YOU MAY NOT POST.
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Old 12-26-2007, 04:00 PM   #185
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Of the many laws which govern Middle Earth, some are taken quite for granted. And so it was that the sun which should have risen in the East the next morning caused quite a stir amongst the early risers by appearing just over the northern-most point of the island and calmly striding its slow way low around the horizon, a mere dull glow in the heavy fog.

Perhaps an hour after dawn, as the sun shone from a point which seemed to be a bit west to the west of north, a voice seemed carried to them by the wind, a voice of great beauty and power, of hope and wisdom.

"My children, do not fear, for triumph shall be yours, and you shall be glorified in my name!”

And the villagers cried out with laughter, brave and sure, though three were filled with great terror.

And another voice broke forth from every direction, crashing upon them violently, silencing the first, and cried “Begone, for your power is as nothing compared to mine! Begone, for my three shall destroy you and yours. Spirit, flee at my command, for this village is mine!”

With this, the fog seemed to recede from the shoreline and the villagers gasped as the rent and drained body of Shasta was revealed laying mangled in the gentle wash of waves. His face was pale, serene in his death, though many claw marks had cut his skin, and many plants of the water had tangled themselves through his hair and around his throat.

The first voice cried to the village, "Maintain hope and dread nothing!"

Yet the other voice returned, drowning the other, and said, "My three, together we shall rid this island of the undeserving who walk upon it."

And laughter echoed, causing the island to tremble, and the voice from afar was silenced, and the fog returned, and the village began to speak.

---

Living-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Azaelia of Willowbottom- apprentice to Rikae
Boromir88- assistant to the apprentice to Rikae
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Farael- conspiracy theorist
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
Macalaure- jailer
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
Nerwen- miller
Rikae- midwife/wise-woman
The Might- shephard
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker
Valier- basket weaver

Dead-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Shastanis Althreduin- herbalist- Night 2 wolf slaughter (VILLAGER)

IT IS DAY 2. YOU MAY POST.
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Old 12-26-2007, 04:28 PM   #186
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Shata? An odd choice indeed. Of course, being a suspect with many people it is a good choice for the wolves in that it causes many of us to wonder as I am now.

I had a look over Nogrod's posts and one thing stuck out to me as I'm sure it did many others and was spoken of yesterday and now we should look at it in a new light, knowing he was a wolf. His little back and forth all day with Mac. What does it mean. Was it Nogrod going after an innocent or wolf going after wolf. That is a question that must be answered before the day is over in my opinion. We have a good chance of bagging another wolf if, as I think it to be, Nogrod was playing the wolf going after wolf strategy thinking it would buy one of them an exemption if the other were lynched.

Sadly, I haven't had time to review Mac's posts but hope to in the next 7 hours or so.
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Old 12-26-2007, 05:48 PM   #187
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Well, let's take a look at the votes yesterDay

Nogrod 5 (Mac, Spm, Aganzir, Shastanis, Legate)
Nerwen 4 (Kath, Valier, Isabellkya, Eomer)
Shasta 4 (Farael, Rikae, Nerwen, Boromir)
Boro 2 (morm, Legate)
Rikae 1 (Nogrod)

There are two I've highlighted, I also underlined the Nogrod voters

Now, with two votes to go and Nogrod having a 5-3 lead over both Nerwen and Shasta, Eomer voted for Nerwen, pulling her up to 4 votes, with Boro still having his vote left.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
Not happy about Nogrod being lynched. The way it happened looks odd to me.

Nerwen looks worse to me.

++NERWEN
It is a poorly explained vote, and it is almost admittedly trying to save Nogrod

Then Boromir votes for Shasta at the last moment. This is an interesting move and I'm not sure what he was trying to accomplish by it, but if he meant to save Nogrod he could've by voting for Nerwen (keep in mind that the LAST person to reach a tie is the one lynched)

Finally, I'd like to note that Mac voted first for Nogrod which would have been a safe wolf-on-wolf vote.

So what do I gather from here

Eomer is looking iffy for trying to save a wolf with no clear explanation (however, he does not say "hey, let's save Nogrod" he just says "Nerwen looks worse". If he had wanted to save Nogrod 'cos he felt Nogrod made sense I could've thought Eomer a misguided ordo... but the way he put it I'm not so sure that's the case)

Boromir is looking better, quite simply because if he wanted to save Nogrod he could've.

I'm not sure I'm ready to think that the Nogrod-Mac debate is wolf-on-wolf, but I do note that Mac had a safe vote.

Edit: Fixed a mistake with the voting record
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Old 12-26-2007, 05:54 PM   #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mormegil View Post
We have a good chance of bagging another wolf if, as I think it to be, Nogrod was playing the wolf going after wolf strategy thinking it would buy one of them an exemption if the other were lynched.
I wondered about that yesterDay. Their exchanges rang false to me for quite a long time. But then towards the deadline they seemed to be genuinely going after each other. And would Nogrod have been lynched at all if Mac hadn't started on him?

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Old 12-26-2007, 05:55 PM   #189
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Hmmm I also have given a thought to the Nogrod/Mac thing yesterday. I do admit that it is a little bold for 2 wolves on day one to argue so much, drawing attention to one another, then one gets killed. But I also had the thought....what if they did this on purpose? remember the wolves can pm during the day. Both Nogrod and Mac are bold players and I wouldn't put this bold move past them. Nogrod garnered suspicion so early on and it makes me think they planned it that way hoping us villagers would think that after all that Mac is innocent. Thus letting him slip through our fingers for the rest of the game.
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Old 12-26-2007, 06:10 PM   #190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier View Post
Hmmm I also have given a thought to the Nogrod/Mac thing yesterday. I do admit that it is a little bold for 2 wolves on day one to argue so much, drawing attention to one another, then one gets killed. But I also had the thought....what if they did this on purpose? remember the wolves can pm during the day. Both Nogrod and Mac are bold players and I wouldn't put this bold move past them. Nogrod garnered suspicion so early on and it makes me think they planned it that way hoping us villagers would think that after all that Mac is innocent. Thus letting him slip through our fingers for the rest of the game.
I wouldn't put it past either Nogwolf nor Mac. However, I'm still not sure about it. If you look at Mac's last post, it looks genuine to me.

Honestly, I'd hate to lynch Mac toDay and find him an ordo... what a payback for the most vocal advocant of lynching Nogwolf.

Also, looking back at Nogrod's posts there's his half-defense of Legate which would seem to implicate him as a wolf... but Legate cast the last vote for Nogrod so that's making him look rather good right now.

Edit: Grammar mistake
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Old 12-26-2007, 06:19 PM   #191
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I must echo. Shasta as the choice amongst the wolves is quite odd to me. He had been considered an easy lynch to some; and quite a few had voted for him. Which it would be a good thing for the wolves; to have that fodder in front of them. Unless of course their aim was to have us focus on that, rather than other things.

Eomer's vote and comment; don't strike me as that worrying. The sparseness, almost seemed to be a pre-emptive covering of Eomer's own behind, if Nogrod had turned out to be innocent. Yet the phrasing of the first sentence is all wrong to me.


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Old 12-26-2007, 06:23 PM   #192
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I've been looking at the way Nogrod has been treated by other villagers. I doubt Nogrod left leads to other wolves in his posts - it was Day 1, after all, and he would have to slip really badly to reveal one of the other wolves. The other wolves, however, seeing that Nogrod was about to be lynched, might have reacted in a telling way.

There is Eomer, who said very little substantial all day and then tried to rescue Nogrod in the last minute.

Boro attempted the same, but I can't read him at all at the moment. I will need to have a closer look at him later today.

However, would Wolf-Nogrod even want to be saved in the last minute? I would guess he's more the type of wolf who would go down for the team instead of telling them to save his skin come what may - especially since they were able to talk during the day. Still, Eomer and Boro are near my center of focus.

Isabellkya tried to defend him in #161

Quote:
To me Nogrod seems to be his usual self, especially in his attitude towards wanting to lynch the quieter players over the louder ones. Quite understandable.. and I think I've seen such comments in every single game I've played with him. Probably because he always targets me as one of the more quieter players, and it is hard to not notice.
...
Macalure's insistance on lynching Nogrod is a bit worrying. Innocents have the freedom and luxury of debating and retracting votes when possible. Wolves however, when on a lynch-hunt don't have that.
This kind of subtle defense is more worrisome.


But who really stands out to me is, you might be surprised: Aganzir. Let me explain.

In #120, she starts with being inclined to think Noggie innocent, in a list with many others.
In #126, she comes up with the theory of Noggie and me both being wolves. It's interesting that she also picks Shasta, another Nogrod accuser/suspect. While this paints Nogrod in a bad light, it also casts a bad light on those who suspected him.
In #131, she continues exactly that approach by attacking SPM. She also attacks Kath, for taking my side even though only to a small extent.

Then she's away for the night, and comes back like this:
In #159, she calls me her prime suspect, but among the given candidates, she'd prefer Shasta or Noggie.
Then she votes him in #162, while keeping the back door of retracting to Shasta.
#173 is strange. Why does she put so much pressure on Shasta? If this is a campaign to get another vote for Nogrod, then why does she only address him? And what exactly makes her so suspicious of Nogrod that she would start campaigning for votes against him? As far as I understand, he was not her prime suspect, but only a better of two evils.

Maybe I'm over-interpreting, but this is how I see it:
When Wolf-Nogrod first got more heavily suspected, Wolf-Aganzir felt the need to help him. She's too smart to do it obviously, after Nogrod's death that would come back to her, so she does it not by defending, but by attacking all of Nogrod's accusers. She even brings in a wolf-on-wolf theory to make sure people won't suspect her to be on Nogrod's side.
Then she had a few words with her fellow wolves. Nogrod told her not to defend him, but to attack him if necessary. She keeps me as her prime suspect, but votes Nogrod. She can pull it because of the earlier wolf-on-wolf talk. She never gives any more serious reasons for it. But she keeps herself a back door with Shasta. She puts Shasta under pressure, hoping he would falter and give her an unsuspicious way out of her vote for Nogrod. But Shasta retracted, which left her with a dead co-wolf, but at least made her a main contributor to his death.


PS: The first one to give out a Mac-Nogrod-wolf-on-wolf-theory backed with at least a little reason wins a prize, all others who come up with it win a prominent place behind Aganzir on my list of suspects.
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Old 12-26-2007, 06:30 PM   #193
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Well, the count after first Day obviously is not that bad, though it looks more like pure luck than anything else. Nevertheless, a good luck. Now we stand in front of analysing what yesterDay and this Night's kill can tell us.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mormegil View Post
Shata? An odd choice indeed. Of course, being a suspect with many people it is a good choice for the wolves in that it causes many of us to wonder as I am now.
Obviously. Could there have been some other reason? After all, there was also the chance of getting Shasta lynched still. The wolves could have picked someone else from the "background". Yet, Shasta indeed leaves a few tracks. I guess this would deserve looking through; it is late here now, but I will surely do that soon.

Now:

What you say, Farael, about Eomer's and Boro's votes would make sense. Especially in the latter case, indeed, had Boro been a wolf, he could have saved his packmate with no problem. That makes me indeed feel better about him. Eomer, on the other hand, could have attempted a "savior strike" with hope for someone to retract... the thing is, he really appeared out of nowhere so we don't know whether he was waiting in shadows for the right moments to cast his vote or whether he just came as a simple villager to do his job.

Mac then... looking at his exchanges with Nogrod, I don't necessarily think it was a wolf on wolf debate, yet I am not also ready to drop this possibility from sight. I only skimmed through their yesterDay's posts, I would need more time to look at them deeper. But basically from I saw, I get the feeling of genuine accusations (from Mac at least).

It is terribly late here and I will be back tomorrow (RL, I mean). Till later.

EDIT: x-ed since Farael
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Old 12-26-2007, 06:59 PM   #194
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I've never seen a wolf be lynched because of his failure to recognise a christmas song before - and I was just trying to be 'in the holiday spirit', after all!
Now, something strange is going on today, and I think it's probably best to get all my thoughts out in the open here and see if anything can be made of them. Morm starts off by suggesting that Mac's attack on Nogrod was wolf-on-wolf, but makes no mention of anyone else involved in attacking Nogrod - his reasons for focusing on Mac aren't clear.
However, (although I hate to say it) Macalaure's post indeed looks sinister to me. I don't see how his arguments against Aganzir for turning so suddenly and viciously against Nogrod don't apply to Mac himself just as well, for although he opposed Nogrod from the beginning, he had little to back it up at first - it came out of the blue in what was quite possibly a preplanned way. Furthermore, his final "PS" sends chills up my spine. There is the same taunting, gloating quality there I saw Macwolf demonstrate in the last game.
Eomer & Boro's final votes look very different indeed, depending on whether or not they were crossed. I'd like to hear what they have to say about them toDay.
As for the wolf kill of Shasta, do you think they may have considered his jumpy behavior an indication of giftedness?
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Old 12-26-2007, 07:50 PM   #195
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Once again, apologies for my relative inactivity yesterDay, but my grip on events in this village was intermittent throughout the Day. I fear that age may be taking its toll on this world-weary traveller. I am still blacking out every so often, but I shall do what I can.

Hmm, why Shasta indeed? I can’t see any reason why the Wolves might have thought him a gifted and I would have thought that they would want to keep around anyone who had garnered as much suspicion as him. As I said yesterDay, he looked like a typical Day 1 scapegoat, and it seems likely that he would have been in the mix toDay, had he survived the Night. It’s not even as if his death doesn’t leave any trail. While his own accusations were pretty random and his votes more calculated to save his neck from the noose than anything else, he attracted a fair number of votes. Given that he was veering towards being s scapegoat, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there wasn’t at least one Wolf in his bandwaggon.

And as to the voting, like all of us here, I have encountered Werewolves before in my meanderings across Middle-earth, and I always like to look at the voting record in its entirety, including the timing of each vote. So, as is my wont, here it is:

Boro: ++Kath (Kath 1)
Mac: ++Nogrod (Kath 1, Nogrod 1)
SpM: ++Nogrod (Kath 1, Nogrod 2)
Kath: ++Nerwen (Kath 1, Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1)
Farael: ++Shasta (Kath 1, Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1, Shasta 1)
Boro: --Kath (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 1, Shasta 1)
Valier: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 2, Shasta 1)
Rikae: ++Shasta (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 2, Shasta 2)
Shasta: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 2)
Morm: ++Boro (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 2, Boro 1)
Nerwen: ++Shasta (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Isabellkya: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 2, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Aganzir: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1)
Nogrod: ++Rikae (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Legate: ++Boro (Nogrod 3, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 2, Rikae 1)
Shasta: --Nerwen, ++Nogrod (Nogrod 4, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Legate: --Boro, ++Nogrod (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 3, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Eomer: ++Nerwen (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 4, Shasta 3, Boro 1, Rikae 1)
Boro: ++Shasta (Nogrod 5, Nerwen 4, Shasta 4, Boro 1, Rikae 1)

Looking at this, I am quite puzzled as to why Nogrod didn’t do more to save himself. Why did he vote for Rikae when she wasn’t likely to be in the running for lynchification? And why didn’t he switch his vote at the last minute to either Shasta or Nerwen? My initial thought was that they too are Wolves and it would have done his pack little good, but Shasta’s proven innocence rather puts paid to that idea.
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Old 12-26-2007, 08:12 PM   #196
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
PS: The first one to give out a Mac-Nogrod-wolf-on-wolf-theory backed with at least a little reason wins a prize, all others who come up with it win a prominent place behind Aganzir on my list of suspects.
Okay, now I'm really getting worried about you. That's just creepy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
As for the wolf kill of Shasta, do you think they may have considered his jumpy behavior an indication of giftedness?
Probably. The same things that made him look wolfish would have been interpreted differently by the actual wolves. I suppose we should look through his posts for anything that might have pointed to him as the Seer, though as I recall he mostly just agreed with other people.

Now, about Nogrod– if there was a wolf-on-wolf thing involved, what happened? Did they intend to sacrifice him all along, or was it a strategy that backfired?

I think his teammates could have saved him at the last minute– why didn't they? Deliberate decision, or just a communication breakdown? We do need to allow for this having happened over Christmas.

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Old 12-26-2007, 08:13 PM   #197
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OK, so what about this Mac-Noggie fratricide theory? It would certainly explain why Nogrod did so little to prevent his demise. But there are a few problems with it. If NoggieWolf and MacWolf agreed to have a little spat to distance themselves, then it got rather out of hand. Surely Mac would have backed off rather than voting for Nogrod as he did and then forcefully pressing for his death. I doubt that they would have agreed for the outset that Noggie should die and be proven a Wolf to make Mac look better. Of course, given that Wolves may converse during the Day, its possible that they hatched the plan ‘on the hoof’ as it were, as the votes against Noggie stacked up.

On the other hand, it’s possible that there is merit in Mac’s theory that, having racked up a fair few votes, Nogrod subsequently hatched a plan with his fellow Wolves that one or more of them would pile in and seek to help themselves by helping him to his death. That would support Mac’s theory about Aganzir, and her sudden switch to pressing for Noggie’s death does look strange, and it might possibly point towards Legate too.

Then there are the last minute votes from Eomer and Boro. It seems pretty clear to me, given the timing, that their votes crossed. Accordingly, it’s doubtful that they are both Wolves, as they would have been able to coordinate their votes to save Nog, if that’s what they wanted to do. But, surely, if one of them if is a Wolf and did make an effort to save Nog, then he would have been able to coordinate a last minute rescue with Nog himself.

Much to ponder toDay. But, since it’s late where I am and I seem to be having one of my intermittent episodes, I shall take my leave for now. Back later toDay, hopefully.
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Old 12-26-2007, 08:23 PM   #198
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Ok, let me begin by apologizing for not voting yesterday, I got confused about the longer 1st Day and thought the deadline was 10 PM not AM. Anyway, I'll surely vote toDay. Well, Boro somehow seems rather innocent now, as he could have voted for Nerwen, in which case she would have been lynched as the last to get 5 votes. Or is this some strange WW tactic? Actually, Nogrod could have saved himself by -- Rikae and voting for Nerwen. but he didn't, although he was there till the deadline...I believe I am right about this. Does this not seem strange. It is true that Eomer's and Boro's votes also came in the last minute, but shouldn't Nogrod at least have tried to -- Rikae who clearly would not have been lynched and vote Nerwen? Unless of course this was planned...Nogrod taking one for the team as a plan? Crazy, but maybe true...
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Old 12-26-2007, 08:40 PM   #199
Valier
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This really does get confusing when the Wolves can pm each other. They could have orchestrated a whole mess of different plans, It is hard to be sure which if any they decided to use. Now I do think the voting may help us a bit in coming up with some theories as to who may be a wolf. For me the most suspicious looking today are. Mac, Eomer, Aganzir, The Might

Mac because I still have a feeling he may be a cunning wolf. But he is the lowest for now on my list.
Eomer, because his vote placement and way of explaining his vote seemed odd.
Aganzir, for the same reasons SPM and Mac have pointed out. He has seemed a little too planned in his actions.
The Might...Well his last post is odd and gives me a weird feeling.
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Old 12-26-2007, 08:46 PM   #200
The Saucepan Man
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Before I go for the night, I have been pondering this theory of Mac’s about Aganzir, and I‘m not so sure about it. At the time Aganzir voted, Nogrod had 2 votes, Nerwen had 4 and Shasta had 3. So why hatch a plan to kill Nogrod when it was far from likely that he would be the one to die? Although, at that point, Shasta was threatening to switch his vote to Noggie, there was no indication that Legate would vote for him. Surely a Wolfish Aganzir would simply have voted either for Shasta or Nerwen, particularly as she had already expressed suspicion for Shasta, rather than voting for someone she had previously thought of as likely innocent - a risky vote for a Wolf.

Mac, on the other hand, really started pressing for Noggie’s death following Aganzir’s vote and at a time when it looked like Shasta might well switch (as he indeed did). And he also immediately picked up on Noggie’s seemingly contrived reason for voting for Rikae. Now that could certainly have been planned between them. Nogrod, seeing that he might well be lynched, votes for Rikae with poor reasoning and Mac seizes on this to encourage further votes, having voted for him earlier. A MacWolf stood to gain from Noggie’s downfall far more than an AganWolf, surely. He could have switched votes to save Noggie, I suppose, but that would have looked awfully strange, and would therefore have risked spelling the doom of both, rather than just one, of them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Might
Well, Boro somehow seems rather innocent now, as he could have voted for Nerwen, in which case she would have been lynched as the last to get 5 votes.
Unless, of course he and Nerwen are fellow Wolves. Which could explain why Nogrod didn’t vote for her. Although it doesn’t explain why he didn’t vote for Shasta.

Bah! My brain’s fading. Time to go.
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