Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Right, but a few of us threw out there that we should think about an alternative plan, and a couple of people said "maybe Zil", and not a single person actually said "okay, vote Zil if you don't want to lynch Sally".

Except for (as I took it at the time) Zil himself, which is why I didn't want to vote him. Ironically, considering what I posted yesterDay before the sally debacle, I'm beginning to think Zil may well be innocent after all. I'm still wondering about you.
But it's true, like Lal said and Mac yesterDay, those of us who didn't want sally lynched screwed it up bigtime.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Except for (as I took it at the time) Zil himself, which is why I didn't want to vote him. Ironically, considering what I posted yesterDay before the sally debacle, I'm beginning to think Zil may well be innocent after all. I'm still wondering about you.

I actually agree with that. I'm by no means letting him off the hook - I still think at least one of the people who voted Mac right at the end was a wolf - but I'm getting a better feeling about Zil toDay and a much, much worse one about Boro (and Lommy).

[Lalaith]

One thing that occurs to me before I turn in - if Lommy is a wolf then Lottie is probably not and vice versa.

[Brinniel]

My gosh yesterDay was a mess. I am baffled why Sally last-minute switched to Mac - compared to everyone else, he appeared to be on the more innocent side. But I guess that at least takes the question of whether two wolves were on the table Day 2.

I don't think a Lommy-wolf would be so bold to lead the charge against Sally. It's more likely to me that a wolf (or two) just went with the flow because with seven votes against Sally post-hunter reveal, that would've been a much easier way to hide. The fact that Inzil was so keen to jump on her doesn't make me feel any better of him. I do not trust him one bit.

I'm actually liking what Boro has to say toDay. Strange, I know. I'm still wary of him due to the timing of his vote on Mac, but maybe less so.

[Kath]

What is it with these sudden reveals at the end of a Day?! And the Hunter. It's been a while since I played, but isn't the idea generally to not lynch the Hunter, especially so early on, because of the risk of them taking down an innocent?

Originally Posted by Eonwe

My suspicions haven't changed since my last list, so Zil, Boro, and Sally are my top choices, followed by Lommy and Lalaith.

Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwaggon for someone I don't think is evil, so, let's make this a thing:

++Sally

Eonwe, what made you choose sally over your other two suspects at the point of voting? sally already had a vote at that point but Inziland Boro were pretty heavily suspected too. I'm particularly interested in this vote because it was before sally's reveal.

Originally Posted by Inzil

You know what?
I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself.

++Brinn

For being Rikae's Day 1 vote, for getting by since, and because the QT baddies are daring us.

Do the same, vote for someone else, or me,

Annoyed innocent here or calculated wolf? I think the self-sacrificial attitude does actually make me feel a bit better about him, but then I'm interested to know what he felt about sally, as this did put Brinn at 2 votes while sally already had 4, and at the time he was the only other lynch candidate with votes. Also, voting for sally would have been him actually working to save himself whereas the vote for Brinn was by no means putting himself safe.

Then sally reveals.

Legate seems suspicious of her - who do you claim you are hunting - whereas Pitch seems happy to take it at face value.

Originally Posted by Lommy

If Sally was the real hunter and thought she's gonna get lynched, wouldn't she let us do it and gun for whoever she thinks is the most suspicious, then let us analyse the bandwagon against known innocent her the Day after? We're not yet at a point where we can't afford lynching an innocent. I'm aware it's a question of playing style and how many risks you want to take, but if I was in Sally's position and the hunter I would never ever reveal.

A very strong reaction from Lommy.

Shasta also absolutely not believing sally. But he and Lommy have very different opinions on how to go about this. Lommy feels lynching sally either rids the village of a wolf pretending to be the Hunter, or means the Hunter can use their power and hopefully catch a wolf. Shasta feels it should be left to the Night. I think Shasta's version is safer for the village. Lommy's is high risk which she did admit herself, but felt it was early enough in the game that losing an innocent wouldn't be so bad. In terms of numbers, perhaps she's right, but I still think leaving the Hunter to the Night would have been better. Especially as if the Hunter was killed at night, and took down an innocent, then at least in the Day there might have been a chance of lynching a wolf, and so it would have been one wolf and two innocents dead, rather than now what we have with three innocents dead.

Lottie ok with lynching sally, unless she was sally's pick.

Rune did not want to lynch sally. Nor did Boro.

Legate agreeing with Lommy that not lynching sally would leave a 'what if' cloud over her role.

Lalaith didn't want to vote sally.

Mac was on the fence.

Reading it back over, it was utter chaos by this point. Lottie goes with what she said and votes sally, despite knowing sally was suspicious of her. This pushed sally's vote count high and was risky for Lottie - unless she's a very bold wolf I think this speaks to her innocence. Lottie does, however, plead for sally not to hunt her. Interestingly, sally did heed this and changed to Mac. Doesn't point to Lottie's innocence or guilt either way but apparently she is very persuasive!

Originally Posted by Mac

We're still relatively early in the game, so the chances of a hunter picking an innocent is relatively high and worth the risk for the wolves. It's in the end game that a hunter is very powerful.

I think this sums up my feelings about the issue. sally agrees with this, but still goes for Mac.

Lalaith changes her mind and votes sally - can I ask what caused the change, Lal?

Legate and Shasta both vote sally. Shasta didn't want to lynch the Hunter in the earlier discussion, so I'm assuming his vote was because he was convinced she wasn't the Hunter.

Brinn ... I didn't spot her opinion on sally earlier. What were your thoughts, Brinn?

Rune sticks to his not-lynching-the-Hunter guns and votes Inzil.

Boro changes his mind and votes sally in the interest of self preservation. Why the change of mind here, Boro? I know you cross posted but I don't think you were actually in danger at this point. The majority of the village had voted and sally was already well in the lead with votes.

Mac votes Greenie - well, he had suspected her all day and the decision was made.

Pitch, who had seemed to believe sally straight away, votes Eonwe. Pitch, what was it that had you so convinced?

sally did not help herself, that much is certain. RL can't be helped but this was nuts. Lottie and Lalaith seemed to be reacting to the situation as it presented, whereas Shasta, Lommy and Legate seemed convinced sally was either evil or that lynching the Hunter would be of more benefit than leaving them alive. I still think the theory was wrong, but we can see from Legate's role that that doesn't automatically equal wolf.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Right, but a few of us threw out there that we should think about an alternative plan, and a couple of people said "maybe Zil", and not a single person actually said "okay, vote Zil if you don't want to lynch Sally". It was possible, and I'm pretty sure it would've worked, too. I didn't make that call because I decided to take the risk and hope Sally was a wolf. If I was a wolf, I would have known she wasn't, and I would've known I was likely her target, so I definitely would have committed to Zil as the alternate option.

Yeah, Lottie is feeling innocent to me here. A lot of names were in the mix as alternative candidates yesterDay but no one pushed forward with a vote. We now know sally was the Hunter and she had Mac and Lottie as her top suspects. We now know Mac is innocent and I'm pretty confident with Lottie being innocent, so I can see why the wolves didn't want to push anyone else forward.

[Pitchwife]

Also let's not focus on Lommy vs Lottie to the extent of neglecting those who added to the suspicion against sally later: Brinn, Greenie, Eönwë, THE Ka (who actually tried to make something like a case against sally, beyond 'her vote was bad and she's acting weird').


Bedtime now. I'm on annual leave, so I'll probably pop in sometime in the Afternoon and be back a few hours to DL.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inzil

This is quite a lofty position for someone who voted the same way, albeit early,

I voted Mac before no one even half seriously suggested Huey was a vote candidate. The bandwagon against him came totally out of the blue for me. Therefore, my vote was in no way related to Huey. While Sally, yourself, and a few others voted Mac after Huey as a possible vote candidate. I don't see how does this not make you more likely wolves?? Of course, my vote doesn't make me innocent or you guys' votes don't make you guilty (case in point: Sally), but I was talking about probabilities. It is more probable for a vote that put someone else ahead of a known wolf to be a wolf's vote than for an average vote to be a wolf's vote. I understand if you disagree with my suspicion, but I don't understand if you disagree with the logical principle behind it.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Again, why is it that only a wolf could be resigned to the fact that they know they're going to face suspicion? I think you greatly exaggerated this about both of us.

In my experience wolves are more prone to overreact to suspicion or potential suspicion, because they are nervous of getting caught. Again, absolute basic werewolf principle I thought you'd agree on. And again, yes, being jumpy doesn't mean you're automatically a wolf. But again, it makes it more likely because wolves are jumpier on average than innocents.

Originally Posted by Zil

Because she's RL busy, maybe?

Eh, if the claimed hunter hasn't voted yet, then I would assume they haven't sent their pick either. If they're RL busy and have to send their pick early, I would assume they'd also vote early.

Originally Posted by Inzil

That's a pretty cavalier attitude, considering that the odds were still heavily in favor of Sally tagging an innocent over a wolf. "You can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, amirite"?

Basically. Look, I know it's a question of playing styles, but I think ww is the most fun when all the special roles get to do their thing, even if it's less advantageous for the side I'm playing in. Maybe mathematically Sally had higher chances of hitting an innocent. But I thought that it would be fun to give her the option, and we could live with the consequences. Maybe the break from ww made me take this game less seriously. Maybe I'm a bit of a cobbler, then. But I'm certainly not a wolf.

Anyway, the whole discussion of my attitude about "Sally the hunter" is pretty theoretical. You have to understand I was 90% sure she was a wolf. 90% of my brain was "I don't trust her, I don't trust her, I don't trust her let's kill her". The remaining 10% was "but ok what if she is actualy the hunter? what then?" and my brain's answer was "well it's just gonna be fun and it would be epic if she stabbed a wolf". I will readily admit that I was arguing for lynching a potential hunter making sense just because I wanted to get Sally lynched because I was convinced she was a wolf, not the hunter, so I kinda twisted my whole logic around that. I see I'm still doing it to a degree...

You don't need to tell me I was wrong about Sally, and that I was stupid, and that I literally pressed my fellow villagers to lynch our hunter. I perhaps ignored whether it's strategically wise because I was too blinded by my conviction that Sally was bluffing. So yes, I shot us in the foot a little, and you can be angry and frustrated about that, but I truly thought I was doing what's best for the village.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I also note that Lommy was not one of the people asking for the name of the person Sally was hunting, and didn't try to suggest any names or anything like that. She seemed completely fine with whatever Sally decided - which, given that none of the people Sally suspected are people I think are at all likely to be wolves, I find really concerning.

Wrong. I was not one of the first people to ask her who she's hunting, because it simply did not cross my mind to do so. However, once the question had been brought up, I seconded it. And yeah, I was fine with whatever Sally was going to pick. I trusted that if she was miraculously the real hunter, she might have a good guess. Also I admit that I also thought "well, if she happens to be the hunter, it's her problem who she picks, not mine". Irresponsible? Maybe a little, yes, but once again I repeat: I thought it was extremely unlikely she actually was the hunter. I certainly did not spend any time speculating who she might hunt if she's the hunter, because a) like I said I did not think she was the hunter in the first place, b) I would not think that the suspicions she voiced on the thread had anything to do with who she's hunting in case she was the actual hunter. Most hunters I've seen don't want to keep their cards on the table like that.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I agree btw that Lommy's bloodlust at the close of yesterDay was quite scary.

I'm sorry, I can get a bit of tunnel vision in werewolf. Whether I'm right or wrong is about 50-50... At least, with Sally and Mac dead I'm forced to start afresh, and I think I've learned to take a breather when I get tunnel vision.

Originally Posted by Pitch

She came out of the gate yesterDay (#593) asserting there had to be at least one wolf who voted Mac after the first Hui vote, and other people (Lottie, Brinn, Eönwë) repeated the point so often that 'suspecting the late Mac voters' almost turned into a meme. Makes me wonder whether we are to be distracted from a wolf in the EARLY Mac voters (or, if there is indeed a wolf among the late voters and sally was use to distract from them).

For the record, I still think it's extremely likely there is a wolf among the late Mac voters - it just wasn't Sally, who I pegged as the most fishy of them. But there is more than one wolf left, so there could be a wolf among the early Mac voters too. Or among the Huine voters. Or among those who didn't vote either. But I thought the late Mac voters were the most likely bunch and thus the best place to start.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I really don't see why innocents would blithely wave goodbye at a revealed Hunter, who, if they were legitimate, still had a worse than even chance of hitting a wolf.

I'm trying not to get annoyed, because frankly I deserve to be judged for yesterDay, but can y'all step down from your high horses for a sec, however deserved your seating up there? The only people who could have known Sally was the real hunter were the wolves. None of us others knew that. We had to weigh her claim and decide what to think of it. A lot of us had the unfortunate starting point that we were already suspicious of Sally for one reason or another. Claiming to be the hunter is quite a good wolvish lynch prevention tactic because a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them. So I would certainly take a hunter claim with a bigger pinch of salt than say a seer claim. Besides, later it was brought into the discussion that Sally should tell us who she's hunting. She did not react, even though she seemed to be around. That also seemed dodgy to me. She could have said "I'd rather not tell" or told us a name and maybe given us more to analyse that way because now the people not voting Sally would have been protecting both Sally AND whoever she named. To me, she looked like a wolf caught in the middle of a half baked ploy, unsure how to proceed.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I really didn't and don't care for Lommy's assertions that we could totally afford to lynch an innocent this early

I'm gonna stand by this and say, yes we could. We probably can toDay too, but we obviously shouldn't.

Also I'm just gonna say that personally I think Lottie's "oh please Sally don't hunt me I'm innocent!!!" looks pretty innocent (especially paired with her Huey vote). I mean I guess she might be a brilliant wolf, but my infamous logic tells me she's unlikely to be one.


edit: xed with everyone on this page

[Eönwë]

Wow, looks like I need to catch up on what happened after I left.

Originally Posted by Kath

Eonwe, what made you choose sally over your other two suspects at the point of voting? sally already had a vote at that point but Inziland Boro were pretty heavily suspected too. I'm particularly interested in this vote because it was before sally's reveal.

I had to go, and we've seen how quickly sudden bandwaggons can appear and there were only 2 previous votes when I voted (and one for was for Brinn, who wasn't someone I wanted to be lynched), so I just wanted to do my best to ensure that one of the three that I strongly suspected (the other two being Zil and Boro) was a viable lynch candidate.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Kath

Pitch, who had seemed to believe sally straight away, votes Eonwe. Pitch, what was it that had you so convinced?

About which of the two?


sally - it really felt like a rehashed plot from the Day before, with some of the same arguments that had been used against Mac being used against sally, and since I was feeling miuch better about Mac by then, I was wary of the same happening to sally. Plus, as I said yesterDay, the sallywagon was being pushed (and pushed very hard) by a mixture of people I didn't and don't particularly trust. I had noticed sally hint at her role earlier, so when she revealed I was willing to give her the benefit of doubt.

Eönwë - I've been suspecting him since D1, based on a mix of mostly very uncontroversial posting, throwaway vote for Urwen, IMO possibly wolf-on-wolf vote for Hui and eagerness to jump on the sallywagon. I regret not doing this earlier when it could have mattered.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Kath

Brinn ... I didn't spot her opinion on sally earlier. What were your thoughts, Brinn?

I did put my opinion in before voting. Initially, I responded to Lommy's doubt of Sally's claim, stating that I was pondering the same thing. I posted that I was considering Inzil or Sally, but want to know who Sally's suppoed hunter pick was. Her lack of response made me doubt her more, which is why I voted her.

[Eönwë]

So if my count is correct, we have 14 left in the village - 4 Infectors, 8 innocents, 1 Lalaith, and 1 seer. A ratio of 10 Good: 4 Bad.

I think that means we have 3 Days (I see Boro said 4 earlier). The worst case scenario:

• ToDay: We quarantine a Good. 9 good: 4 bad.
• ToNight: Infectors infect a Good. 8 good: 4 bad.
• ToMorrow: We quarantine a Good. 7 good: 4 bad.
• ToMorrow Night: Infectors infect a Good. 6 good: 4 bad.
• OverMorrow (does anyone ever use that term in this game? this seems like a useful way to reference it): We quarantine a Good. 5 good: 4 bad.
• OverMorrow Night: Infectors infect a Good. 4 good: 4 bad. Infectors win.

So we actually have toDay, toMorrow, and the Day after toMorrow to catch the Infectors.


It's unlikely that it'll go that badly for us, especially since we still have the Seer, but it is important because it means that we're definitely in the mid-game now, which (at least, based on my previous games) means that we're more likely to see more complex plays from the wolves - maybe more wolf-on-wolf (since now when one dies they'll have had a lot of Days to implicate others), maybe more bluffs, more aggression, etc. So just something to watch out for.


edit: x-ed since my last post.

[Thinlómien]

Ugh, I wanted to look at the lynch yesterDay and at Legate's posts but it's closer to 3am (oops) so I'm gonna do that tomorrow.

Still gonna say that the lynch was strangely unanimous. Clearly, a lot of innocents weren't believing Sally, and the wolves felt safe enough to hop in. As has been pointed out, mathematically Sally didn't have a particularly high chance of hitting a wolf. I guess the risk was worth it for the wolves and it was easy to hide in the flurry of innocents. Sally got 10 votes, so in the very least 3/5 of the Sally voters were innocent. Which makes the lynch possibly more difficult to analyse.

I also want to look at those who did not vote for Sally, and if any of them comes off as too sure of Sally's innocence. What a nicer place for a wolf to chill than staying away from a big innocent-on-innocent bandwagon that's bound to get scrutiny the next Day?

Safe to say, there are likely wolves both among those who did and those who did not vote for Sally. I think only closely analysing people's proclaimed reasons to do what they did will tell who's who. Or maybe not that either because I'm getting less and less convinced that werewolf is about logic.


edit: xed with Brinn and Pitch

[Eönwë]

Since I suspect both Zil and Lommy, I'm very inclined to see Zil's attack on Lommy toDay as a way to distance them from each other. It's only a matter of time before Zil gets quarantined (and rightly so, IMO - he's been suspicious throughout), and it might be enough to make her look better in hindsight (after all, it seems bold for a wolf to go after one of their own so strongly and before anyone else, right?). On the other hand, if Lommy is lynched toDay, then it looks like Zil spearheaded the attack, so it makes him look good in retrospect.

Maybe my judgement is clouded because I'm already convinced that Zil is evil and almost convinced that Lommy is too, but that's the feeling I'm getting here.

[Eönwë]

And again, it's mid-game, I don't think it's too bold for an Infector (in this case Lommy) to have gone all-out on the Sally quarantining. Since she's already in the public eye as suspicious, she doesn't have much to lose by being in the spotlight, and the end result is that a non-wolf got lynched.

[Brinniel]

Just some initial thoughts about everyone:

Lommy: Like I said, I don't think a wolf would be bold enough to lead the charge like she did. If innocent, she certainly would be an easy target for the wolves toDay.
Lottie: I am leaning toward innocentish for her vote Day 2 and the fact that she didn't make a strong push for an alternative when she knew she might be hunted. Still, I haven't completely discounted the possibility that she could be a clever wolf who doesn't mind taking risks.
Pitchwife: His vote on Day 2 looks innocent to me and there was nothing in his behavior yesterDay that makes me think otherwise.
Kath: Has been a bit under-the-radar, but right now I feel okay about her since I agreed with her suspicions yesterDay.
Lhuna: Wasn't really around yesterDay. Still find her suspicious for reasons stated yesterDay.
Inziladun: His behavior and voting record combined, I find him highly suspicious.
Greenie: She's been floating a bit under the radar for me, so I'm not quite sure. I do find myself going back and forth on her.
Boromir: Wary, but right now feeling okay about him.
Lalaith: I think she could've possibly been a wolf-on-wolf voter on Day 2. She was resistant to vote Sally, and then she did.
Eönwë: Another potential a wolf-on-wolf voter on Day 2. He voted for Sally early yesterDay. If Inzil is a wolf, this could make his vote more suspicious. I think there's a fair chance that he or Lalaith are wolves, but less likely both of them are.
Rune: Ugh, I really don't know about him at this point.
Ka: Not sure about her either.
Shasta: I've liked his thinking so far and he's feeling genuine to me.

[Eönwë]

I thought it might be useful to look through Hui's posts again in light of what we know now. I found this post:

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Okay, reading over my main suspects (Mac, Pitch, Lommy, Zil, in that order for now):

Mac: Thought innocent yesterDay, but realised today that was down to not trusting the way people were suspecting him, when those people were a (now) known and a probable innocent. ToDay, launched straight into 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf', and starts in on Kitanna, which is an interesting line in view of, y'know... Kitanna. And he keeps trying to implicate the people who suspect him. I really don't like this.

Pitchwife: My chief suspect yesterDay, for his actions in the GLP & several 'just asking questions' posts; also his position on the Brinn-wagon (both suspicion and voting). Launches toDay with "this may implicate Brinn, except isn't that almost too obvious?" - I'm starting to view this less as 'just asking questions', and more as 'they will say both no and yes'. He suspects Zil with no explanation (at the time), and later pushes both the start and the stop of the Kit discussion, including one 'saw it as I was writing' crosspost that makes me feel like his post was intended to take credit for starting the 'let's shut it down' discussion.

Lommy: My second suspect yesterDay, mostly for reasons of tone I think. ToDay, she seems a lot better. #350 is a good example of this - she's not sitting there saying 'yes, but maybe no', she's analysing the evidence for both (all) sides of the discussion. And she's cast the first vote, too.

Zil: Completely off my radar yesterDay; it's those short posts of his. Today, spent a fair few posts talking about things we know aren't true, such as Rikae-wolf; even more posts on the Kit discussion; really, I'm seeing a lot of posts where Zil's contribution is shorter than what he's replying to! It may be just his style, so he's not top of my list, but he does look (at least at times) like a wolf trying to look active without having to say much.

I'm starting to worry I might just trust people who write long posts on multiple topics. :-/

Okay, at the moment I'm likely to vote Mac, but will take Pitch as still looking about as suspicious as yesterday (Mac's just more suspicious). Lommy I'm going to call neutral for now. Zil I think there's a better-than-even chance is a wolf.

At the moment, two of my top three have 1 vote each. It's going to be interesting to see who gets offered up to take the heat off them...

hS

While obviously Mac is innocent, I think it's extremely extremely unlikely that there are no wolves in this list. I'm still definitely leaning towards Zil and Lommy as suspicious, but given that Pitch has been flying under my radar since Day 1 (other than his constant suspicion of me), I think I should probably give him another look-over.

[Loslote]

So while I have a bit of time, I'm going to go through and take a look at something I consider very suspicious: the way Lommy talks about Boro in the context of the late Mac voters - or rather, the way she really doesn't talk about him at all. To begin with, she goes through the votes themselves:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Sally -> Macalaure 4

Another one who steered clear of the Huine issue, wondered aloud if she should vote Mac or Lottie. Went for Mac who had more votes of the two at the time when Huine was rapidly gaining more votes. Extremely dubious vote - especially if we take into account that at least to me at this point Huine didn't seem like a "lost case" at all.

Inzil -> Macalaure 5

"Because I distrust Lottie, and to a lesser extent, Pitch." Huh? Basically implied without straight up saying so that he would prefer not to lynch Huinesoron. The placement of this vote is pretty dodgy, but Inzil's last minute "Watch Huey be a wolf. " (after the lynch was resolved but the deadline had not come yet) has a very innocent ring to me.

...

Boro -> Mac 6

Claims to have crossposted, I'm not sure with quite how many votes. Still, clearly a vote that was - intentionally or unintentionally - towards saving Huinesoron. Therefore, deserves scrutiny.

Sally, Zil, and Boro all post at essentially the same time, especially given that Boro's vote is crossposted. She takes a much harder line on Sally and Zil, but acknowledges that Boro's vote "deserves scrutiny" as well.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Can I start giving paranoid wolf awards? YesterDay Mac and Brinn for thinking they're being framed by the Rikae kill, toDay Sally and Inzil being convinced they're done for. None of that looks very innocent to me.

Sally looks very furry to me right now. She did before, her vote was the worst, and her apologetic attitude toDay is not helping her cause at all. Fishy fishy lupine fish.

Here, Lommy is responding to Zil, and brings up Sally, linking them as both being late Mac users. She does not mention Boro here, though I believe she responds to his calling votes against her "throw-away" later in that post.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Bear watching

...

Boro - oscillating between weird Boro and normal Boro in this game. The glimpses of normal Boro I have seen have been mostly very reassuring to me, but his yesterDay's vote makes me more wary of him again.

...

Bear even more watching (trying to differentiate here because I realised I put like 80% of the village in the same category)

...

Would seriously consider quarantining

Zil - I used to think him quite innocent, and also was reluctant to join the chorus of lowkey Zil suspicion which seemed to be based on nothing more than the usual kneejerk "suspicious vibe" that always surrounds him - as I said, he's generally someone who's quite easy to get lynched so it makes sense for wolves to keep him on a suspicion list. But he's making me very uneasy now with his dodgy vote yesterDay, his fatalistic attitude about getting lynched toDay, and being fixated only on a few villagers (as someone said, convenient if he's a wolf thinking he's getting the axe).

Mac - okay, I hate to say this, but he has started to seem a lot more innocent to me. Like, my gut feeling is a lot better, but my logic still cannot fathom why innocent Mac would have acted the way he did yesterDay. Greenie summarised this quite well in her #666.

Sally - Eeevil cupcake. Eeeevil. Has been suspiciously safe in her choices since the beginning, tried to save Huine yesterDay, toDay first seemed to have given up and now is trying to convince people she'd have bussed a fellow!Huine. There's nothing innocent in this mix. Certainly my main suspect at the moment.

Here, Lommy puts Boro two full suspicion categories above Sally and Zil, saying only that his vote makes her "more wary of him". She is not really suspecting Boro at all, placing him in the company of me, Kath, Lhuna, and Rune - largely people who didn't vote for either Huin or Mac - even though he should be just as suspicious as Zil and Sally, since he did exactly the same thing they did.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But if it comforts you, I still suspect Sally more and I'm not sure two wolves would have done the same fishy packmate-saving move with similarly incriminating timing.

So just as a statement: I'd prefer to lynch Sally toDay because the evidence against her is pretty overwhelming, but I'm not opposed to Zil or Mac.

Responding to Zil again. Lommy isn't considering Boro as an option at all, and isn't including him in the group of late Mac voters. She continues to push Sally over Zil.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

It is possible but why is it *likely*, Sally? Even if you were innocent yourself, you should have no idea about Zil. Addendum: oh, so this is just about maths? Not a very strong argument, given that maths doesn't take into account that you both voted to save a known wolf.

Here she is asking why Sally doesn't think it likely that she and Zil are wolves. Again, she doesn't mention that Boro also did the same thing, which actually would have strengthened Lommy's argument: one in three is more statistically likely than one in two.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I voted Mac before no one even half seriously suggested Huey was a vote candidate. The bandwagon against him came totally out of the blue for me. Therefore, my vote was in no way related to Huey. While Sally, yourself, and a few others voted Mac after Huey as a possible vote candidate. I don't see how does this not make you more likely wolves?? Of course, my vote doesn't make me innocent or you guys' votes don't make you guilty (case in point: Sally), but I was talking about probabilities. It is more probable for a vote that put someone else ahead of a known wolf to be a wolf's vote than for an average vote to be a wolf's vote. I understand if you disagree with my suspicion, but I don't understand if you disagree with the logical principle behind it.

This was toDay, responding to Zil's comment that Lommy also voted for Mac. Here she says that "Sally, yourself [Zil], and a few others voted Mac after Huey as a possible vote candidate." What I find interesting is that the few others is actually just Boro. Unless you count Shasta, which I don't.

In her very first post after Huin was quarantined, Lommy said that Boro's vote deserves scrutiny, but then proceeds to not mention it at all when talking about how the group of late Mac voters are suspicious. She only brings it up again in a list, where she places Boro in the second-best category but claims his vote makes her wary. Lommy strongly pushed suspicion of that group of people, while completely ignoring the third person in the group. If Lommy and Boro are packmates, this would have been Lommy pushing suspicion for votes like Boro's exclusively onto innocents (or an innocent and a wolf who was already under suspicion, if Zil is evil) who happened to vote the same way Boro did. If this strategy works, we would have lynched Sally yesterDay, Zil toDay if we still wanted to pursue that line of questioning, and we probably would have gotten distracted by something else long before we got around to Boro. This would be a great strategy for the wolves! I suspect that Lommy and Boro are packmates, and I would absolutely be willing to vote for one of them toDay.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If this strategy works, we would have lynched Sally yesterDay, Zil toDay if we still wanted to pursue that line of questioning, and we probably would have gotten distracted by something else long before we got around to Boro. This would be a great strategy for the wolves! I suspect that Lommy and Boro are packmates, and I would absolutely be willing to vote for one of them toDay.

Posting from my phone is cumbersome, but I think this makes good sense. I would be tempted to add Brinn as a potential packmate also.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Posting from my phone is cumbersome, but I think this makes good sense. I would be tempted to add Brinn as a potential packmate also.

If Brinn is a wolf in a pack with Lommy and Boro, she's being very bold about defending them. I guess I could see it as a possibility.

[Eönwë]

Ok, well it looks like not much has happened since I left.

I will hopefully manage to be in the last hour or so before the deadline.


Currently, my thoughts are:

I'm most interested in voting for Zil, Boro, or Lommy. Based on reasons I've stated on previous Days, plus Lommy's actions yesterDay and the interaction between the three, I suspect that there are at least two Infectors in this group.

I'm still suspicious of Lalaith and Rune, and I suspect that at that there is at least one Infector in that pair.

I'm feeling better about THE Ka now that it turns out Mac was an innocent.

I'm a little concerned at how well Greenie and Kath have been flying under my radar.

I'm still feeling mostly good about Pitch, Shasta, Lhuna, Lottie, and Brinn, but a few of them have said things that made me raise my eyebrows (and there is the possible Pitch-Hui link mentioned in my previous post) and I think it might be time for me to make sure I'm not giving people free passes based on earlier innocent-looking actions.

edit: fixed a sentence

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sorta at a loss after yesterday. I was very much expecting Sally to be a wolf.

The reason I decided I was ultimately not gonna fight to not lynch her was Lommy's bit about the wolves ultimately not needing to kill her; I'm used to Hunters that have a bit added to their role, where they can beat a single wolf 1-on-1 at the end of the game. That isn't present here, but I didn't think about it till fairly late.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

And again, it's mid-game, I don't think it's too bold for an Infector (in this case Lommy) to have gone all-out on the Sally quarantining. Since she's already in the public eye as suspicious, she doesn't have much to lose by being in the spotlight, and the end result is that a non-wolf got lynched.

YesterDay was Day3, so scarcely mid-game in this big village. Also I don't think I have been widely suspected until toDay. You're looking at toDay's situation to make sense of yesterDay, and it doesn't add up.

Lottie - yes I didn't focus on Boro's vote despite it being similar to Sally and Zil's. That's because I thought Sally and Zil looked suspicious for other things as well, while for Boro the vote was more or less the only suspicious thing about him. I don't see why this is weird. If someone that overall seems innocent to you does something dodgy, I think it's natural to move them into an unsure category in your head (as I did with Boro yesterDay). While if someone you already consider dodgy does something dodgy, it's red flags time (that was me about Sally yesterDay, and to a lesser degree about Inzil).

I'm really torn about Inzil at the moment. I still don't like his vote from the Day before yesterDay, and I don't like his crusade against me toDay because granted I made myself a very easy target yesterDay. But I am aware there's still a chance he's a misguided innocent (a position I can scarcely judge) and in suspecting him I'm throwing myself into an interesting adventure called tunnel vision, part three.

Eönwë's suspicion of me feels very opportunistic to me, while Pitchwife and Lottie's more organic and understandable. Granted, this might be partly because I have other reasons to think Lottie and Pitch innocent, but nothing in particular for Eönwë.

Now I'm off to look at Legate's posts. Meanwhile you guys please think about the fact that only the wolves could have known that Sally was innocent yesterDay. I'm sure that's carrying echoes into toDay in terms of bashing people who genuinely thought Sally was a wolf.

[Lalaith]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Sorta at a loss after yesterday. I was very much expecting Sally to be a wolf.

The reason I decided I was ultimately not gonna fight to not lynch her was Lommy's bit about the wolves ultimately not needing to kill her;

That is one whole bunch of negatives. I'm at a loss to make sense of it....

[A Little Green]

Okay so further proof of my utter cluelessness in this game – yesterDay I developed a theory that maybe Mac’s suicidal tendencies were due to him being the Hunter who had pegged a wolf and wanted to be offed. Looks like it’s time for another serious rethink.

Regarding the Legate kill, I think it’s possible he was picked just because more or less everyone agreed he was innocent. That said, I don’t think wolves can ever afford to kill someone just for that when there’s a Seer still on the loose. Our Seer will have had four dreams by now. Granted, some of those s/he dreamed may have died already, but even so, it’s a growing risk for the pack and I don’t think they can entirely ignore it. In light of that, this quote from Legate struck me -

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, one thing is (nearly?) for sure - the votes in Sallywagon can't all come from Wolves. (I mean technically... that would be super bold... but probably they wouldn't yet do something like that! Besides if it was these four, then they'd have no reason to.)

Could this have been a possible reason why Legate was killed? This could have looked like a slip from a Seer-Legate who knew Sally wasn’t a wolf.

Originally Posted by Inzil

You know what?
I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself.

++Brinn

For being Rikae's Day 1 vote, for getting by since, and because the QT baddies are daring us.

Do the same, vote for someone else, or me,

I thought this was noteworthy. While I agree that Brinn still merits looking at (I’m not comfortable with the free-ish pass she is getting lately), Inzil effectively going “que sera sera, lynch me if you like” rubs me the wrong way. Could be Wolfziladun trying a bit too hard not to appear defensive – especially in comparison to Sally, who was being suspected for similar reasons and was definitely acting defensive.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Btw what I just said about self-exoneration and calculated votes also applies to Eönwë's reaction to me this morning. "I drove the last nail into Huiwolf's coffin, how dare you suspect me?" But you had to vote at a point when your vote would likely be decisive, and if you knew that Mac would come up innocent if lynched, voting Hui was your only viable option. 'looks like it's going to have to be...' = 'I don't like it, but I have no choice'?

I’ve been inclined to think Eonwe rather innocent than not so far, but this is a good point.

Originally Posted by Mac

Bring the butter, my body is ready!

Originally Posted by Boro

++Sally

Really don't like the idea of a panic bandwagon against me. If you're the hunter, happy killing.

If you're a wolf, thanks for giving me 500 heart attacks, but I'd consider us even considering the trick I pulled on you previously.

Originally Posted by Kath

Boro changes his mind and votes sally in the interest of self preservation. Why the change of mind here, Boro? I know you cross posted but I don't think you were actually in danger at this point. The majority of the village had voted and sally was already well in the lead with votes.

I agree with Kath here – this was strange. Boro does seem more than a little paranoid here, essentially voting Sally to prevent a panic bandwagon against himself even though he didn’t look like a very likely lynch candidate at this point. Mind you, going after people who seem “paranoid” hasn’t served me very well in this game

Originally Posted by Boro

1. Inzil I need to get a better read on, but there's a lot to be answered for with your defense yesterday. I never pegged you as a "roll over" type, until yesterday

2. Can we trust the QT now? Please. But I swear if they give us Brinn again I'm going to lose it.

2. 3/4ths of you are as suspicious as suspicion can be.

3. I'm starting to get a clearer picture, and imagining a pack of Lhuna, Lottie and Inzil. An unknown 4th at the moment, but I'm starting with you 3.

My voting may have been crap, but Lhuna's yours is completely clean since Day 1. Alarm is raised.

Lottie you managed to convince the hunter to change her choice in the last second and I have no idea why.'

Hm. I agree with 1, and with that Lhuna deserves a closer look and Inzil is a very possible wolf, but the rest of this I either disagree with or find fishy or both. Regarding the QT – yes, we can trust that the QT vote is benign; but no, we can’t trust that it’s any more likely to be correct than that of any other innocent, non-Seer person. Following the QT’s lead would give a very easy alibi for a wolf to vote for an innocent without raising too many eyebrows, so no, even with an innocent-majority QT I don’t really trust anyone who places too much weight on what the QT decide.

Regarding Lottie – that last point is off. Regardless of Lottie’s role, it would have been in her interest to try to convince Sally to change her pick. I’d have been stupefied if she hadn’t tried. Regarding Inzil – while I agree that he is one of the most suspicious people in this village, I think it would be very convenient for a Borowolf to say so if they were fellows. Inzil is a fairly possible lynchee either toDay or some other day soon, so an easy candidate for wolf-on-wolf bussing. Especially for a fellow who, like him, voted for Mac in a way that could have been an attempt to save Huin.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her. I voted for her because I thought there was an actual chance she was a wolf. If I really wanted to vote somewhere else, I could have pushed for Zil, who had also been suspected. In my opinion, the fact that there was no coherent alternative at all should speak to the idea that the people in Sally's crosshairs were not evil.

Despite my general dislike for statements that start with "if I was a wolf", Lottie makes a good point here – the wolves would have known Sally’s claim was genuine, and a wolf thinking they were under fire from the Hunter would have had a motive to try and lynch someone else.

Originally Posted by Lommy

WELLLlllllllll I got what I wanted...

...but it turned out not to be what I wanted after all. I have gone through a full cycle of *despairing laughter* -> what use is logic in werewolf when it's always wrong -> I should really have been the cobbler -> "hey at least I won't have to wonder about Mac and Sally for the rest of the game" overNight and now I'm trying to recover and be useful toDay. I mean what else can you do?

But yes, looks like yesterDay wasn't my brightest moment. Nor the Day before... But I can hardly do worse toDay - unless I decide to vote the seer and press for their lynch.

This makes me feel somewhat better about Lommy – though I might be biased since I’ve been wrong in much the same way about much the same people, so I can kind of see how that’s entirely possible.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I don't think a Lommy-wolf would be so bold to lead the charge against Sally. It's more likely to me that a wolf (or two) just went with the flow because with seven votes against Sally post-hunter reveal, that would've been a much easier way to hide. The fact that Inzil was so keen to jump on her doesn't make me feel any better of him. I do not trust him one bit.

This was my first impression, too. I could see a Lommywolf voting for Sally before the reveal, then consciously pushing for a Sally lynch regardless; but Lommy’s bloodlust (I love this mental image btw!) was a bit too open for this read to seem plausible for me. I think a Lommywolf would have made the same arguments for a Sally lynch after the reveal, but made them in a way that looked more balanced and reasonable rather than frantic and bloodlusty.

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta also absolutely not believing sally. But he and Lommy have very different opinions on how to go about this. Lommy feels lynching sally either rids the village of a wolf pretending to be the Hunter, or means the Hunter can use their power and hopefully catch a wolf. Shasta feels it should be left to the Night. I think Shasta's version is safer for the village. Lommy's is high risk which she did admit herself, but felt it was early enough in the game that losing an innocent wouldn't be so bad. In terms of numbers, perhaps she's right, but I still think leaving the Hunter to the Night would have been better. Especially as if the Hunter was killed at night, and took down an innocent, then at least in the Day there might have been a chance of lynching a wolf, and so it would have been one wolf and two innocents dead, rather than now what we have with three innocents dead.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Look, I know it's a question of playing styles, but I think ww is the most fun when all the special roles get to do their thing, even if it's less advantageous for the side I'm playing in. Maybe mathematically Sally had higher chances of hitting an innocent. But I thought that it would be fun to give her the option, and we could live with the consequences. Maybe the break from ww made me take this game less seriously. Maybe I'm a bit of a cobbler, then. But I'm certainly not a wolf.

Regarding this whole issue – I think whether or not to lynch a self-proclaimed Hunter is very much a question of playing style and strategy, and in itself doesn’t give us much about a player’s alignment. Lommy’s explanation here sounds like something she would think regardless of role. The only bit rubbing me the wrong way is the last bit. “I’m certainly not a wolf” won’t convince anyone, even if true.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm trying not to get annoyed, because frankly I deserve to be judged for yesterDay, but can y'all step down from your high horses for a sec, however deserved your seating up there? The only people who could have known Sally was the real hunter were the wolves. None of us others knew that. We had to weigh her claim and decide what to think of it. A lot of us had the unfortunate starting point that we were already suspicious of Sally for one reason or another. Claiming to be the hunter is quite a good wolvish lynch prevention tactic because a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them. So I would certainly take a hunter claim with a bigger pinch of salt than say a seer claim.

I think Lommy is making sense here, too.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Since I suspect both Zil and Lommy, I'm very inclined to see Zil's attack on Lommy toDay as a way to distance them from each other. It's only a matter of time before Zil gets quarantined (and rightly so, IMO - he's been suspicious throughout), and it might be enough to make her look better in hindsight (after all, it seems bold for a wolf to go after one of their own so strongly and before anyone else, right?). On the other hand, if Lommy is lynched toDay, then it looks like Zil spearheaded the attack, so it makes him look good in retrospect.

Maybe my judgement is clouded because I'm already convinced that Zil is evil and almost convinced that Lommy is too, but that's the feeling I'm getting here.

Hm. Definitely a possibility – if Lommy is a wolf, the pack would have been prepared for her to be under fire toDay for her role in lynching Sally. That said, the wolves would have been prepared for this even if Lommy isn’t one of them. Inzil starting the Day with a straight-up case against Lommy looks somewhat rehearsed, like something he (or his pack) had decided to go for in advance. And even if Lommy is innocent, it makes sense for Inzil to be the one of the pack to go most heavily after her – as he’s one of the most suspected people around, him being implicated in an orchestrated lynch of innocent Lommy wouldn’t really matter that much. I could see him and his pack deciding that he’s pretty much a goner but at least he could try to stick around for one more Day by getting Lommy lynched first.

I want to have another look at Legate's posts at some point to check for possible "Seer clues", as well as another look at a few players we haven't really focused on. It's entirely possible we're dealing with a wolf pack of, say, THE Ka, Kath, Rune and Lalaith, happily watching from the sidelines as louder and more chaotic players lynch each other.

[Lalaith]

Kath

Lalaith changes her mind and votes sally - can I ask what caused the change, Lal?

For the same reason Legate did (we actually cross-posted) I got freaked out by the fact she didn't say who she was hunting. Up til then I'd been waiting on an agreed alternative to sally.
Coulda, woulda, shoulda.....Shoulda just voted earlier for Eonwe. Not sure if it would have helped though. Zil was coming up as an alternative with a lot of people but I didn't really feel enthused by that alternative bandwaggon - I felt similar about him as I had about Mac - couldn't quite see what all the fuss and suspicion was about.

Might go back and have another look at him toDay to try to get my head round the continuing Zil suspicion, if I have time.
Today I am mostly feeling good about Pitch and Rune. Although Pitch - at the risk of sounding a hypocrite, why didn't you vote Eonwe earlier? Greenie I have had good feelings about all game but I need to check to see if anything happened yesterDay to change that.

[Thinlómien]

Day1

Notable that he was in the middle of the fake votes plan contoversy. Would the wolves think a seer would stick his head out like that? I wouldn't; but then again, Legate himself didn't seem to consider his own actions very controversial, so maybe he would have. Also I wouldn't put it past the wolves to have mostly concentrated on later Days. Anyway, something worth noting.

Made this absolutely silly joke early on Day1, singling out Zil:

Originally Posted by Legate

Those who are here now are fairly active already, but hey, we can't all be Wolves, right? Or... *dun dun dun dun* (No, that's not a pun on Inziladun. OR IS IT?)

which I wouldn't read much into unless his later suspicions are consistent with that.

List #88. Personally I think most potential seerish (ie clearly saying either innocent or guilty) phrasing is:

Lottie has raised some eyebrows, but it seems to me like she acts the way innocent Lottie would.

But of course, a lot of people hadn't posted very much yet when he made the list, so as an apparent seer his "dream" could have been someone he simply didn't get to comment yet. Such as Rune, who he hoped would post and then once he did, he says

Otherwise... I have good feelings about Rune, especially his post #117 seems genuinely innocentish to me.

Interestingly enough, Inzil of whom he made the jokey wolf remark early on Day1 doesn't appear on Legate's list at all.

About Lalaith his first comment upon her appearance was

That was as fishy first post as they go. "Everyone is a Wolf, hint hint not me."

Which I guess in an alternate unierse could have been Legateseer jumping on dreamt wolf Lalaith as soon as she appears on the thread.

Fake voted Kitanna. If the wolves thought he'd been the seer, would they have assumed he'd have voted a dreamt wolf if he had one? I would think that more plausible than not.

Made a second list #226. The one thing that stands out to me is in his "innocent" zone this one:

Marx - I mean, Rune - is to the point, and I sense no falsehood in his tone. Okay now.

The second time he makes a vague point for Rune's innocence, and Rune is the only person he either trusts or suspects about whom he is 100% consistent the whole Day.

This makes me feel better about Rune. If the wolves thought Legate was the seer, they most likely thought he had dreamt of innocent!Rune on Night1.

Keeps suspecting Kit and Brinn, voted Brinn.


Day2

Is rather vocal about that knowing Brinn's role would be very helpful (already mentioned this the Day before).

(Jokingly??) suspects Pitch for wanting to be a fly on the wall in the QT with Rikae and G55.

Thinks there's at least one wolf among "Lhuna, Boro, Shasta, Kitanna, Greenie and/or Eönwë (and/or Lalaith)" but doesn't quite reach a conclusion which one.

Calls Zil and Pitch "suspicious as Morgoth wearing a tutu under the Two Tree" for talking about Kit. Still "on the verge" about Kitanna, but possibly changed his mind enough for it to look like a seer dream...?

Bad vibes about Lottie, and to a lesser degree, about Huinesoron.

Another list #455. Suspects Huine, Lottie, Brinn, Lommy, Kitanna, Zil, Mac and Greenie. Considers Rune (again), Kath, THE Ka and Shasta innocent.

Starts the Huine wagon and tries to convince people to join him. Very bold if he had indeed been the seer, but I guess the wolves couldn't discount that option.

(Meanwhile, doesn't want to take a stance on Lommy vs Mac, and keeps suspecting Brinn. Mildly suspects Lottie and Greenie too.)

Presumed Legate-seer dreams: Night1 innocent Rune and Night2 guilty Huine?


Day3

Analyses the previous Day's voting in #632, but doesn't conclude much.

Mild to middle grade suspicion towards: Boro, Zil, Brinn, Sally, Lhuna, Greenie.

Mild to middle grade trust towards: Kath, Pitch, Shasta.

Another list which I'm gonna quote because it's just names:

Originally Posted by Legate

Wary of:
Greenie
Lhuna
Inzil
Boro
Brinniel
Eönwë

Thought guilty earlier but think better now:
Lottie

Flip-floppy about:

Thinlómien
Sally
Lalaith
Macalaure

Nothing particular on:
Pitchwife
THE Ka

Feeling good about:
Kath
Shasta
Rune

States he would prefer to vote Brinn, Boro or Eönwë.

Lots of frantic posting in the Sally mess. Did not trust Sally's reveal and voted her. Parting shot:

Topic for the next Day: "Who among those who abstained from voting (or voted when it matters no more) are Wolves, et cetera."

Hmm. Night3 seer!Legate dream? Innocent Kath or innocent Shasta, but pretty impossible to say which. Possibly innocent Lottie with how she go her own category on the list, but would the wolves think the seer to draw attention to their dream like that?

~*~

Conclusions: If the wolves killed Legate for looking like the seer (and what else are they looking for than the seer?) I'm 99% sure Rune is innocent (unless the wolves somehow read Legate's posts in an absolutely different light than I just did, but Legate's consistent trust in Rune really stands out on reread).

Sadly that's the only conclusion I'm confident about. Also looks like they could have thought he dreamt of wolf!Huine, which doesn't help us very much.

Lastly, I feel a little better about Shasta, Kath, and Lottie, but I'm hesitant to say Legate's death exonerates them all.

A curious addendum? How Brinn stands out. Legate suspected her quite consistently, although not with a seerish conviction perhaps. More interesting is how he said it would be useful to know Brinn's role (both end of Day1 and early Day2) and went on suspecting her. Would a wolf!Brinn have interepreted this as seer!Legate wanting to dream of her and doing so, but for some reason concentrating primarily on other suspects (Huine and Sally) on the next Days, perhaps hoping he can come out in the near future with knowledge of wolf!Brinn and a few other dreams? I mean, from my pov, if Legate was a seer, Huinewolf looks like the most likely Night2 dream, but would paranoid Brinnwolf think otherwise? Perhaps?


edit: xed with all three previous posts

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kath

Annoyed innocent here or calculated wolf? I think the self-sacrificial attitude does actually make me feel a bit better about him, but then I'm interested to know what he felt about sally, as this did put Brinn at 2 votes while sally already had 4, and at the time he was the only other lynch candidate with votes. Also, voting for sally would have been him actually working to save himself whereas the vote for Brinn was by no means putting himself safe.

It seemed the suspicion on Sally was largely based on her place on the Macwagon. My vote was similarly placed, and I saw no other reason to be worried about her.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

It's unlikely that it'll go that badly for us, especially since we still have the Seer, but it is important because it means that we're definitely in the mid-game now, which (at least, based on my previous games) means that we're more likely to see more complex plays from the wolves - maybe more wolf-on-wolf (since now when one dies they'll have had a lot of Days to implicate others), maybe more bluffs, more aggression, etc. So just something to watch out for.

This strikes me as "saying something without really saying anything". Dodgy.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Just some initial thoughts about everyone:

Lommy: Like I said, I don't think a wolf would be bold enough to lead the charge like she did. If innocent, she certainly would be an easy target for the wolves toDay.

First, I think a Lommywolf could easily afford to be aggressive there. There are still four wolves. And knowing that if Sally was really the Hunter, her odds of targeting an innocent were good.

[Boromir88]

I'm going to be occupied for most of the day, but will be back before DL.

For the QT. I would vote +-Lhuna

Ok, it stinks when your time zone doesn't allow you to be around when all the insanity unfolds. Still she made 2 safe votes. Not safe because of the TIME, but safe because of the people she suspects.

She mentions Huey's slip, but doesn't follow up on it.

1st was a self-vote.

2nd was a flimsy vote for Lommy that she still hasn't explained.

Boro changes his mind and votes sally in the interest of self preservation. Why the change of mind here, Boro? I know you cross posted but I don't think you were actually in danger at this point. The majority of the village had voted and sally was already well in the lead with votes.~Kath

I agree with Kath here – this was strange. Boro does seem more than a little paranoid here, essentially voting Sally to prevent a panic bandwagon against himself even though he didn’t look like a very likely lynch candidate at this point. Mind you, going after people who seem “paranoid” hasn’t served me very well in this game~Greenie

When I voted, Lottie was the 5th vote for sally. Not including mine, 8 people still had to vote. Lottie, Legate, and to some degree sally, Mac, Brinn, Greenie had stated suspicions on me. Pardon me for worrying a panic-wagon of "don't lynch the hunter" went towards me in the last 5 minutes, after G55's "reveal" had everyone rushing to save her except for Kit.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I think a Lommywolf would have made the same arguments for a Sally lynch after the reveal, but made them in a way that looked more balanced and reasonable rather than frantic and bloodlusty.

I don't see it that way. The only innocent reason for such surety was if SeerLommy knew of a Sallywolf, which plainly is not the case.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Inzil starting the Day with a straight-up case against Lommy looks somewhat rehearsed, like something he (or his pack) had decided to go for in advance.

Actually, that's how I see Lommy beginning the case against Sally.

x/d with Boro

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I don't see it that way. The only innocent reason for such surety was if SeerLommy knew of a Sallywolf, which plainly is not the case.

Are you saying an ordo cannot become 90% convinced of someone's guilt just based on their posting? Moreover, a fellow innocent person's guilt?

[A Little Green]

Initial thoughts for toDay:

Leaning innocent:

Lottie – multiple reasons, but particularly her instrumental part in lynching Huinwolf as well as very vocally agreeing with him and pointing it out herself on Day 1. Doesn't look like a plausible wolf pair.

Pitch – I still think Huinwolf wouldn’t have pushed the attention on the GLP and especially Pitch’s role within it so heavily if it implicated a packmate.

Lalaith – Might need to reconsider, but I do think it’s a good sign that she voted for Huinwolf even though she had previously mentioned feeling uneasy about Mac and so would have had a perfectly valid alibi for not bussing a packmate.

Shasta – Still mostly gut feeling combined with his effort to subtly protect Kitanna in a way that wouldn’t necessarily occur to a wolf.

Rune – Haven’t seen anything to worry me so far, and Lommy’s Legatolysis (which sounds like a medical condition btw) brings up a good point about how if the wolves killed Legate for looking like the Seer then Rune most likely isn’t one of them.

Could be anything:

Lommy – On the fence about her. Has a pretty horrible track record so far (though I’m not really in a position to judge anyone on that ), but I think an evil Lommy would have been smoother and less bloodlusty about trying to get Sally lynched. (As she pointed out herself, a wolf would have known Sally was telling the truth and consequently would have known exactly how bad an all-out attack on her would look in retrospect.) On the other hand, I still think she seemed somewhat more jumpy than usual earlier in the game, and her mutual suspicion with Huinwolf could easily have been wolf-on-wolf.

Kath – I still have worryingly little read on her considering how active she’s been. Has stayed out of the spotlight and the big controversies, and barely interacted with Huinwolf.

Lhuna – On the fence about her too. Her voting record doesn’t tell us much; admittedly yesterDay’s no vote was due to RL and understandable, but Day 1 she voted for herself which gives us literally nothing, and Day 2 she voted for Lommy for reasons that still aren’t entirely clear to me. There was also the bit where she pointed out Huinwolf’s slip when no one else did but then didn’t follow up on it, which I still think could be a possible indication of guilt (a wolf would be more likely to notice a wolf slip because she’d know that’s what it was).

Eonwe – I get a general good vibe from him, but don’t really trust vibes anymore. He was very careful and diplomatic especially earlier on. Cast the deciding vote on Huinwolf; though as Pitch pointed out, if he knew he was casting the deciding vote, I could see an Eönwölf bussing a packmate knowing that the alternative would leave him looking pretty bad.

THE Ka – Like Kath, has carefully stayed out of the spotlight and the big controversies while contributing actively. Barely interacted with Huin. I don’t like how she seconded Inzil bringing up Kitanna’s slip and thus contributed to outing the Ranger but then didn’t take part in the ensuing discussion about it – and consequently, isn’t really mentioned when that whole debacle is discussed. Admittedly if Inzil is as guilty as he looks, Ka more than likely isn’t; for two wolves to be the first to poke at a likely Gifted would be brazen in a way I don’t think Inzil and Ka would be.

Leaning guilty:

Inzil – Interactions with Huinwolf basically amount to mutual suspicion without votes, and then Inzil voting for Mac over Huin at a fairly crucial moment. First reacts to this with fatalistic “I know this incriminates me!”, then later when both he and Sally are being suspected for their vote placements as well as following paranoia and defensiveness, he drops this tone and basically tells the village to lynch him if they want. Then starts toDay with an all-out attack on Lommy that looks somewhat rehearsed to me (regardless of Lommy’s role).

Brinn – I’m still not comfortable with her. Huinwolf defended her very vocally; she voted for Huin on Day 2 at a fairly crucial point which makes her look better. Admittedly she had been pretty heavily suspected herself, so possibly thought she couldn’t afford to visibly save a packmate people were already connecting her to. Enough has been said about her (especially earlier) concern with keeping her hands clean and overt focus on how the Rikae kill is connected to herself. I’d like to reread her posts from yesterDay and toDay to check what she’s been doing since, as she’s largely disappeared from the public eye aside from those cyptic votes from the QT.

Boro – I find him increasingly worrying. Lightly suspected by Huinwolf while saying he doesn't want to lynch Huin and voting for Mac over him at a fairly crucial time. Admittedly I’m not sure if a Borowolf would be this open about it. Additionally, I’m not comfortable about how he’s repeatedly suggesting QT-related plans that don’t make sense to me from an innocent POV (though admittedly complex ploys and strategies aren't really my strong point so it's possible I'm just missing something) – first when we had an evil-majority QT he suggested bringing the pre-votes back which would have been very useful for the evil QT, then when questioned about this he said something along the lines of wanting to mess with them; then toDay he’s suggesting we start to trust the QT vote now that they have an innocent majority, which doesn’t make sense to me either (other than as an easy way of justifying a vote that doesn’t incriminate himself). Also not sure what to make of his voting for Sally to save himself from a last-minute panic bandwagon against himself that, frankly, didn’t look at all likely.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Inzil

If it had been me, there's no way I'd have said who I'd really picked. I'd have picked a name out of thin air.

Why is that Inzil? In this situation, although sally didn't specifically put a name out there until very late on, her vote did at least indicate which way she was planning to go with it.

Originally Posted by Lal

Well at least the baddies are no longer in the majority on the QT.

That really will be interesting in terms of Brinn. We haven't really been able to tell whether it's the baddies pushing that name or not the past two Days, whereas toDay the innocents definitely control the vote.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Are you kidding me? Sally's suspicions were all based on gut feeling alone, and I guess my insisting that I was not a wolf convinced her. But you know what I was thinking all last Night? "Well, there's no way I'll be alive in the Morning. The wolves are going to think I was trying to hint that I was Gifted. They'll definitely kill me toNight." I was very surprised when I saw that I was still alive, and I half thought, "maybe the wolves are going to try to prod a little, see if they can figure out if I was Gifted hinting or not." But I really didn't think anyone was going to be this blatant about it.

There must have been a good reason for the wolves to go for Legate last Night because actually I largely agree with this in terms of possible wolf thoughts. Lottie's choice to vote for sally even though she knew she was one of sally's top suspects I think would have made it hard for them to believe she was the Seer though. That would have been one hell of a risk for her to take.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Lommy: Like I said, I don't think a wolf would be bold enough to lead the charge like she did. If innocent, she certainly would be an easy target for the wolves toDay.

Actually, from what Lommy has said herself about her attitude towards the game, I could absolutely see a Lommywolf leading the charge and being entirely willing to take all the flack for it the following Day. What a great way to pull suspicion onto pretty much just one person. Even if she's lynched, if all the discussion has revolved around her and her actions at the end of yesterDay, it would surely leave fewer clues as to the identity of her fellow wolves.

Amidst all this, I really would like to hear more from Lhuna. I know timezones are a pain, but my previous suspicion of her for the Kit discussion hasn't gone anywhere.

Originally Posted by Boro

When I voted, Lottie was the 5th vote for sally. Not including mine, 8 people still had to vote. Lottie, Legate, and to some degree sally, Mac, Brinn, Greenie had stated suspicions on me. Pardon me for worrying a panic-wagon of "don't lynch the hunter" went towards me in the last 5 minutes, after G55's "reveal" had everyone rushing to save her except for Kit.

A lot of people were looking for an alternative to sally here though, and Boro had previously stated he didn't want to lynch the Hunter, and with 8 votes to go another candidate could have garnered votes. Ok, self preservation, but did you actually believe sally?

[Thinlómien]

Quite universally suspected, Sally made a hunter hint before any voting took place. She said:

Originally Posted by Sally

Also, lynching me would either be a bad idea or a Very Bad Idea, depending on how my suspicions play out. Either way, you're not lynching a wolf, so maybe look elsewhere? Just saying.

Personally, I think it was blatant enough for anyone to notice, but I think everyone who voted Sally before her actual reveal - apart from myself - either didn't notice it or purposefully ignored it, which is interesting. I would like to hear what THE Ka, Eönwë and Greenie have to say about what they thought of the Sally quote above at the time.


THE Ka -> Sally

Pressed for time and weighed on by RL, casts the first vote on widely suspected Sally. An innocent with a genuine suspicion of Sally would do this, so could a wolf wishing to vote safely. Can't judge.


QT -> Brinn

Whatever is going on here. I guess toDay's qt vote might help - if they for some reason vote for Brinn again I think they know more than we do, and the Brinn vote yesterDay was a wolvish double bluff that's obvious to the quarantined. If they vote for someone else than Brinn toDay, then I don't think we can say much about this vote.


Eönwë -> Sally 2

"Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwaggon for someone I don't think is evil, so, let's make this a thing". Sounds quite genuine to me, which makes me feel a little better abut Eönwë who's otherwise rubbing me the wrong way a lot. Of course, this could be Wolfwë rephrasing "Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwagon for one of my fellow wolves, so, let's make this a thing" - but I'm not sure he would be that open about it.


Kath -> Inzil

"I won't be back now until deadline, and I still find Inzil the most suspicious based on what I said in my earlier post". Hmm. She steers clear of the Sally controversy with this, but to be fair, at this point it was no way clear that "whether we should lynch Sally or not?" would be the main discussion topic. A safe vote that could have started a rival bandwagon, given how many people at least mildly suspected Inzil, but didn't. Interesting.


Greenie -> Sally 3

Says she x'ed with Eönwë's vote for Sally. "As mentioned before, debating between Inzil and Sally - finding out Inzil's role would tell us more, but I'm slightly more certain about Sally whose behaviour today has looked, to use Shasta's word, much too scrambly for an innocent Sally with an unfortunate but accidental vote placement the Day before." I think this vote doesn't tell us very much until we know Zil's role.


Lommy -> Sally 4

I'm not going to discuss my own vote because I feel like both others and myself have done that ad nauseam already. I'll just put my reasoning here: "I'm 90% sure she's a wolf after the latest drama she tried to pull, so why not give her a headstart when I'm not half as convinced about anyone else." By "the latest drama she tried to pull" I mean her hunter hint. I wasn't more specific about it, because I didn't want the "real hunter" to feel too pressured to counter-claim. (Also referred to this a little later when I said "Not buying Sally's theatrics.", in case anyone's wondering.)


Inzil -> Brinn 2

"You know what? I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself. ++Brinn For being Rikae's Day 1 vote, for getting by since, and because the QT baddies are daring us. Do the same, vote for someone else, or me," I really have zero idea what to make of this, but it makes me feel a tiny bit better about Inzil. Wouldn't wolf try to make more sense? Also the comma in the end just leaves me baffled.


After this, Sally revealed for real, saying:

Busy, but I must beg of you....
Hey, don't lynch your hunter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Possibly notable: She likely crossposted with Brinn saying she's debating between Inzil and Sally.

Reactions:

Pitch trusts her and says he got her hint earlier, a little later defends her too.

Legate is skeptical and asking who is she hunting. Later Legate gets very vocal about repeating the question, heavily distrusting Sally's claim in the process. Also agrees with me (see below) that we can't count on the wolves to reveal Sally's true role for us.

I didn't buy the reveal at all and explained why.

Shasta says he got the hint but isn't buying the claim either, later he adds we shouldn't nonetheless lynch Sally and explains why. (I disagree with this and explain why.)

Boro is frustrated and confused. Later agrees with Shasta that Sally is likely faking but we still shouldn't lynch her.

Lottie believes Sally and says she's happy to vote someone else. Also: "It's too close to the deadline and we have no idea who her pick would be anyway. I'm not voting for Sally." Tries to bring other candidates to the table, namely Zil and Boro.

Rune pops in and asks if he got people's reasons for suspecting Sally right, without saying whether he believes her claim or not - soon adds that lynching Sally is too high stakes for him.

Brinn is unsure/skeptical about the reveal.

Lalaith doesn't say this or that about whether she believes Sally or not, just notes: "Like Legate I want Sally to tell us who she is hunting. So much unanimity on Sally is a bit unsettling."

Mac doesn't trust Sally's reveal but it still makes him hesitant to lynch her.


Sally -> Lottie

"Equal parts suspicion and self-preservation."


Lottie -> Sally 5

Does quite a legate180. The only reason I can see is that Sally didn't tell her hunting target, seemingly because she wasn't around. Vote accompanied about angry shouting that if Sally is the hunter she shouldn't hunt her.


Lalaith -> Sally 6

"Ok fine. Good luck if you're the Hunter Sally. So long if you're not. I'll miss your insouciance either way." I don't really like this vote. As far as I can see, Lalaith didn't particularly suspect Sally - or anyone else besides Legate, anyway, if memory serves.


Legate -> Sally 7

"Her blood be on us and on our children." whatever that means. Stayed extremely skeptical of Sally 'til the end.


Shasta -> Sally 8

"-shrug emoji-" From a person who was pretty loud that we should lynch Sally regardless of her role? Really?


Brinn -> Sally 9

"If she's the hunter, I don't understand why she would not say her pick." Consistent disbelief of Sally. But I have to say that her "quiet and reasonable" stance to the whole Sally debacle could very well easily be fake. Her actions would be very safe for a wolf who has decided offing hunter!Sally is worth the risk.


Rune -> Inzil 2

"meh." Well, he's going with his suspicions, casting a somewhat doomed vote for someone he suspects, rather for an either wolf/hunter lynching whom he considered too big a risk. Makes sense.


Boro -> Sally 10

"Really don't like the idea of a panic bandwagon against me. If you're the hunter, happy killing. If you're a wolf, thanks for giving me 500 heart attacks, but I'd consider us even considering the trick I pulled on you previously." The jumpiness here is a bit eyebrow-raising, but I can't disagree with the general sentiment about what if Sally actually is the hunter, I mean I thought the same myself.


Mac -> Greenie

"Just because. "


Pitch -> Eonwe

"Is everybody allowed a throwaway vote once in the game?"


No vote: Lhuna Not much to say about that, but speaking of her: don't look at her vote tally of yesterDay, it has several errors. I noticed because I used it as a basis for this pots while rereading the thread and the votes didn't add up. What I have presented here is the correct voting tally.


Thoughts: I'm not super keen on Lalaith and Shasta's votes, the former voting Sally without even saying whether she believes her or not, the latter voting Sally despite thinking it's a bad idea. Brinn's attitude towards the whole debacle looks super safe, but not necessarily sinister.

I would still like to hear from THE Ka, Greenie and Eönwë whether they caught Sally's hunter hint and what they thought of it.

I am really baffled that there were a lot of people who were either skeptical of or downright against lynching Sally, yet still they failed to bring forth another candidate. There was a lot of suspicion against especially Inzil but also Boro, but these didn't gain momentum. Why? Perhaps a lot of the people looking for alternatives for Sally were actually wolves but they didn't want to bring a fellow to the block when the lynch was going in a nice direction for them* and bringing forward a second innocent lynch candidate who they hdn't suspected very vocally so far seemed like too conspicuous a move?


*barring of course the fact that some wolves might have been scared of lynching the hunter because she might target them, but there were very few people worried about who Sally might actually pick - namely Lottie, Mac and Rune


edit: xed with Greenie and Kath

[Lalaith]

I am really baffled that there were a lot of people who were either skeptical of or downright against lynching Sally, yet still they failed to bring forth another candidate

Lommy my love - now this is too much. You seem to forget you were stomping all over the thread shouting at us about voting for Sally, we could barely get a word in edgeways!

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Are you saying an ordo cannot become 90% convinced of someone's guilt just based on their posting? Moreover, a fellow innocent person's guilt?

No, but I can't see such zealous urging being the product of a mere "90%".

Originally Posted by Kath

Why is that Inzil? In this situation, although sally didn't specifically put a name out there until very late on, her vote did at least indicate which way she was planning to go with it.

I think it potentially helps the wolves more than the innocents. If they know who the revealed Hunter is looking at, it helps them decide when to make a Night-kill if the Hunter isn't lynched.

Originally Posted by Kath

That really will be interesting in terms of Brinn. We haven't really been able to tell whether it's the baddies pushing that name or not the past two Days, whereas toDay the innocents definitely control the vote.

The innocents know less than Huey (and by proxy, G55), so their vote could be said to be even more random than the QT has been.

x/d with Lal

[Lalaith]

Lalaith -> Sally 6

"Ok fine. Good luck if you're the Hunter Sally. So long if you're not. I'll miss your insouciance either way." I don't really like this vote. As far as I can see, Lalaith didn't particularly suspect Sally - or anyone else besides Legate, anyway, if memory serves.

No this is not true and quite careless of you, Lommy. I had in fact talked myself out of suspecting Legate due to his Hui vote and had been highly suspicious of Eonwe since my analysis post of hiim earlier that day.
See my post 792.

So I would rather go Eonwe (from the dodgy behaviour stated in my earlier post) or Boro toDay. Brinn would be acceptable (Second time taunt from QT - really?)
I am still not completely happy with Legate but because of his Huivote I feel a bit better and won't vote for him toDay.

I gave out three different lynch candidates as an alternative to Sally. And I argued with you about what was wrong with having a known innocent who the wolves were too scared to kill. And your reply was at 819 was (in keeping with your general mood) bloodthirsty.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Quite universally suspected, Sally made a hunter hint before any voting took place. She said:

Personally, I think it was blatant enough for anyone to notice, but I think everyone who voted Sally before her actual reveal - apart from myself - either didn't notice it or purposefully ignored it, which is interesting. I would like to hear what THE Ka, Eönwë and Greenie have to say about what they thought of the Sally quote above at the time.

I didn't think too much about it, to be completely honest with you. At that point, I was tired and had a headache (an actual one, not just a thinking-too-much-about-werewolf one), was pretty convinced that Sally was a wolf, and in general terms didn't think it likely that a genuine Hunter would want to drop hints at her role as this would effectively mean the wolves would be less likely to kill her, thus making her Gift useless. So with this combination of background factors, it did cross my mind that she was making a hint but I took it with such a big pinch of salt that it didn't really impact my decision-making.

[THE Ka]

[RL – Sorry for the long bit of silence, helping grieving family is always difficult the second day when shock wears off. I have some more time today so I’ll be catching up further. Thank you everyone for your words, I appreciate all of you. As for the Game, again, regardless of role and what’s happening in our RL let’s keep playing as a sort of solace in the storm.[/RL]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Claiming to be the hunter is quite a good wolvish lynch prevention tactic because a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them. So I would certainly take a hunter claim with a bigger pinch of salt than say a seer claim.

Are you echoing Mac’s statement of the wolves trying to get the hunter out of the way early to bag an innocent in the same Day?

Personally I’d take a Seer claim with a greater pinch, especially early game, unless the Seer happened to be extremely lucky and dream of a wolf on a previous Night (even so, that’s really risky as Seer you want to stay in as long as possible). Even if you’re using the ‘wait don’t do it, I’m really the Seer and this is what I know-‘ to try and either sway votes for your pack or just use it as last minute cover as a villager, it won’t keep you concealed for long. Other wolves might just decide to sacrifice you the next Day for being too hot a topic (and making any innocents who supported you guilty of collaboration to others), and if you were a villager and found lying, you could garner a lot of distrust for trying to flush the Seer out and possibly be thought a flustered cobbler.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

now that it turns out Mac was an innocent.

My Mac vs. Sally reasoning boiled down to what happened to Mac beforehand. It just seemed so forced as I’ve said before, like the wolves regardless of his innocence or not at that point, found him to be a sort of main distraction as they were trying to figure out gifted roles. He appeared coy and nervous which made it look like he was afraid of being caught due to Rikae appearing innocent, etc. and that was forced without abandon. I figured by being a pothole in the road, it would frustrate a few of them just enough to see who was upset by proximity.

The next Day, I spot Sally and then Zil casually joking in the same manner and poke them over it, asking if we’re going to see a repeat of yesterDay over Mac. Zil eventually gave an answer to other players, but Sally remained distant and coy over it and I dug further into her voting patterns and actions around DL on different days. I even ended up agreeing with Brinn when she pointed out Sally had begun to try and turn the wheel of attention towards the reason behind Mac votes when the majority of us were already becoming convinced it was something taken advantage of and others feeling duped.

I’d feel more duped over my Sally vote, but before knowledge of the hasty hunter reveal it just appeared that she was doing a lot of little to appear involved. Sort of what we saw from Hui in their list posts and a self-assurance that since Zil had appeared to garner enough attention early on yesterDay that it would be a unanimous vote for them. Considering what had happened with Mac until Legate had enough of a hunch to go back and pull Hui’s posts, Sally had come across to me as trying to bide time and pull the same as Hui, hoping Zil would take all direct hits since they were engaging all our questions at that point.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I would like to hear what THE Ka, Eönwë and Greenie have to say about what they thought of the Sally quote above at the time.

I remember reading it in passing first, then again, but at that point it sounded still coy and more like a cobbler move than a villager, which comes across as a flustered wolf that is trying to make us pause enough to try and find reasoning for voting along their suspicions so they can recuperate enough to start back again. In comparison between Sally and Zil at the time and with what had happened with Mac the previous Day still burning in my mind, I didn't want to entertain it and be lead down a rabbit hole. Unfortunately, even fumbled, I wasn't around to read the semi-reveal until after the Day had ended.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Actually, from what Lommy has said herself about her attitude towards the game, I could absolutely see a Lommywolf leading the charge and being entirely willing to take all the flack for it the following Day. What a great way to pull suspicion onto pretty much just one person. Even if she's lynched, if all the discussion has revolved around her and her actions at the end of yesterDay, it would surely leave fewer clues as to the identity of her fellow wolves.

I can't obviously say if I would play this brazen as a wolf too - perhaps, because like I said I feel more laidback about the game in general. On the other hand, it's possible being a wolf and feeling a loyalty to my pack would have made me want to avoid the spotlight.

I mean I certainly don't follow with Kath saying that if I was a wolf and lynched, the discussion being centered on me toDay would give you guys fewer clues about my packmates. On the contrary, it would be a freaking goldmine. In fact, even as it is, if you guys lynch me toDay, I want you to swear to look at the controversy I have created and look who jumped on it in an opportunistic way.

But that being said, I would very much like everyone to look at other people than myself toDay. I'm afraid the whole "is Lommy suspicious for spearheading the Sally lynch" debate is somewhat drowning out everything else.

I'm not the only one who voted yesterDay.

No one but me has even looked at the Legate kill.

Please guys, focus your energies somewhere else, at least a little while. Then you can decide who you vote. Frankly I understand why several of you suspect me, and perhaps I deserve to be lynched for how wrong I've been in this game, but I don't want to be lynched because getting innocent myself lynched would be about the worst conclusion to my track record in this game and I would not forgive myself for messing up that bad without having done anything constructive (that I can see the consequences of so far). I don't want to play anymore unwitting cobbler than I already have.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Lommy my love - now this is too much. You seem to forget you were stomping all over the thread shouting at us about voting for Sally, we could barely get a word in edgeways!

Come on. I didn't force anyone to vote Sally yesterDay, yet most people still did. I don't have any magic manipulation powers. Yes, I was arguing quite vocally for lynching Sally. (Side note: so was Legate, a known innocent.) You guys could have let me yell at Sally alone and ignored me and voted for someone else. Yet you didn't. You can blame me for my decision that was bad in hindisight, but you can scarcely blame me for your own. The Sally lynch was not my doing alone, yet that narrative is very much being pushed. Do you know who benefit from that narrative? The wolves. Both the wolves who voted for Sally themselves, and even those who didn't, because it's making me an easy lynch candidate.

Originally Posted by Zil

No, but I can't see such zealous urging being the product of a mere "90%".

Then be careful how zealously you press lynching me toDay. Anyway, I would like to link as a proof a game where I was the ranger and Mac was a wolf (ok not the same as this, as I turned out to be right there) where I was super convinced Mac was a wolf, went on a crusade that made everyone raise their eyebrows, then Mac pulled a fake ranger reveal and out of spite I refused to counter-reveal because I didn't want to give him that snippet of victory and everyone thought I was deranged and I think I was even lynched (and Mac the next Day). Fun times. Not my greatest moment, but I have thought of that game a lot recently because it was a great warning for me not to pick fights with Mac (which I nonetheless did in this game). *blows kisses to Mac in the qt if he's reading this*

Originally Posted by Lalaith

No this is not true and quite careless of you, Lommy. I had in fact talked myself out of suspecting Legate due to his Hui vote and had been highly suspicious of Eonwe since my analysis post of hiim earlier that day.

I remember you backed off the Legate suspicion but I didn't remember you suspected Eönwë. Sorry, my bad about that one. The Boro and Brinn thing though, it really just adds to my general unease about some fairly commonly suspected names floating around in the lynch discussion yesterDay but garnering scarcely any votes. Why did you, for instance, vote Sally and not Eönwë, or Boro or Brinn? Had you done that as soon as you started voicing your misgivings about the Sally lynch, there might have been an actual option to lynch someone else.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I didn't think too much about it, to be completely honest with you. At that point, I was tired and had a headache (an actual one, not just a thinking-too-much-about-werewolf one), was pretty convinced that Sally was a wolf, and in general terms didn't think it likely that a genuine Hunter would want to drop hints at her role as this would effectively mean the wolves would be less likely to kill her, thus making her Gift useless. So with this combination of background factors, it did cross my mind that she was making a hint but I took it with such a big pinch of salt that it didn't really impact my decision-making.

Noted.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Are you echoing Mac’s statement of the wolves trying to get the hunter out of the way early to bag an innocent in the same Day?

Hm, I'm not sure I understand this question, please rephrase if I answer the wrong thing. I simply thought claiming to be the hunter would be a quite cunning and in character move from a wolf!Sally, because (quoting myself) "a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them". I'm not sure it really depends on whether it's early or late in the game. Perhaps earlier is even better for wolves, but I wasn't looking at it timing-wise yesterDay.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I simply thought claiming to be the hunter would be a quite cunning and in character move from a wolf!Sally, because (quoting myself) "a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them". I'm not sure it really depends on whether it's early or late in the game. Perhaps earlier is even better for wolves, but I wasn't looking at it timing-wise yesterDay.

Got it, that answers it more for me. Kath had pointed out earlier with a quote from Mac the previous Day where he had mused that the wolves if targeting a hunter would want them out of the way early since the risk of the hunter taking an innocent was high. Before knowing his role, this could have been seen as a wolfish way of laying a subtle hint to pack mates, but now it's just a villager concerned.