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Old 03-19-2006, 07:29 AM   #321
Eomer of the Rohirrim
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Shield

I think the wolves are, for the most part, staying out of this Seer talk. They want the villagers to get in a tangle all by themselves.

I think we should double-lynch Kath and Lhuna. The day after, Glirdan and Farael.
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Old 03-19-2006, 07:44 AM   #322
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Shield Response to TGWBS's & Tar-A's votes

Yeah, I like defending myself. If I didn't you'd say I was hiding, so here goes.

If 0 wolves were voted for on Day One, then they start looking to villager defences to find a Seer. Anguirel defended Garin, so they kill him.

If 1 wolf voted for on Day One, they are scared of Seer dreaming about said wolf. Example: If LMP is a wolf, they kill Eomer or Gurthang because they voted for him. This could only have been the case if Glirdan was the one wolf (which was my mistake).

I have no idea where I got that 0 or greater-than-1 idea. It was a mistake. I was thinking out loud. Wolves generally don't make stupid mathematical mistakes like that. If I am a wolf I don't make mathematical posts because I'm not clever at it. Because I'm innocent I can afford to just type whatever the hell I'm thinking at that time. I think that stupid post I made actually speaks in my favour!

Anyway, the answer could be obvious: Anguirel was killed because Glirdan feared him. Or: we were totally wrong in our Day One voting.

Anyway...

Tar, I referred to Anguirel's post #21 and not his post #69. He accused both me and Kath there. I'm not denying that Anguirel's death implicated Kath, me and Glirdan. In fact, that was my whole point. I was asking why Farael defended Kath and not me when we were both mentioned in #21; and I asked why certain villagers were quick to point out that Anguirel's death made Kath look bad, while at the same time ignoring me and Glirdan.

I don't understand what is wolvish about that.


* And a quick response to Glirdan. Don't play dumb with me, laddie! You know fine well what I was asking you. I'll say it again: If you are innocent, then why did the wolves not gleefully accuse you on Day Two, considering Anguirel voted for you? Seems very odd to me.
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Old 03-19-2006, 07:47 AM   #323
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So, Spawn was a seer. This is a suprise to me, to be honest, but I'm not sure it won't also be one for our lupinous assailants. I'm inclined to agree with Tar-A in post #294 that it may have just been a ploy by the wolves to even the ratios of sexes. This then makes me think 2 things: (1) the wolves are equally split between the sexes or (2) the wolves are all male. Pure speculation, that, but just a thought. I certainly am not willing to support TGWBS's suicide pact yet, but it's something to bear in mind, I think. Playing the odds on day three whiffs somewhat of desparation, and we're not desperate yet. (Are we?) I do agree with TGWBS that the lovers do need to be taken seriously, though.
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Some may not view the lovers as as important as the wolves, but they are dangerous dissidents - especially the innocent lover, who appears as an innocent to the Seer. (TGWBS)
My inclination to think Spawn a random kill means that I'm less suspicious of Kath than others. Not, however, totally unsuspicious. For two days now Kath's been at the wrong end of some pretty serious grilling. Would the wolves expose one of their number to that? It seems like the perfect set up, but it could also be the perfect play! I'm not sure, though I'm also loathe to rule any possibility out.

As for Lhuna: I'm still very suspicious of her. I've yet to hear anything from her to displace my original suspicions and now that Spawn's been revealled as a seer her support of my original premiss makes me think I m ay be onto something.
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Old 03-19-2006, 07:48 AM   #324
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Quickly popping in here -
I just want to say that I don't think we should lynch anyone before they've had a chance to say something. The reason should be obvious....
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Old 03-19-2006, 07:55 AM   #325
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Agreed in principle, Lalaith, but sometimes that's just not possible because of the timezones. I guess what I'm saying is that an early vote shouldn't necessarily be seen as damning.
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Old 03-19-2006, 08:37 AM   #326
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Shield

You're right Lalaith.

More fun with maths (much simpler this time):

We should begin the double-lynches. They ensure that more kills are made by the village than the wolves. They ensure that we have greater chances of catching wolves.

And my picks for today, though I agree we should wait to hear from them, are Kath and Lhuna.

I don't think games should include double-lynchings, but since we are 'blessed' with them, it would be folly to not maximise their benefits.
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Old 03-19-2006, 08:45 AM   #327
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You know, Eomer has a point about the double-lynching thing. I mean, who says it is beneficial for the village to drag things out? The wolves only would have more time to confuse us.

That said, I don’t wish to jump to conclusions yet. There are many villagers we still need to hear from and this is becoming a rather one-sided story if you ask me. One third of us is now guilty, and Lhuna and Kath ain’t enough to cover that.
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Old 03-19-2006, 08:55 AM   #328
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Quote:
this is becoming a rather one-sided story if you ask me. One third of us is now guilty, and Lhuna and Kath ain’t enough to cover that. (Cailin)
What do you mean by that Cailin? I'm not accusing you or anything, I just don't catch your meaning.

I can see Eomer's point, in that there's no advantage to us drawing this affair out, but what if we've been wrong and Kath and Lhuna are both innocent? From Spawn's accusations of them both we can be fairly sure neither of them is the seer, but losing two ordos would be a major blow nonetheless, much moreso than losing only one. We could potentially lose three innocents (one of which could be the seer) by daybreak tomorrow. Are we ok about that? It's an idea with merit, this I do not deny, but it's a risky one, and we should all be aware of that before we commit to a course of action.
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Old 03-19-2006, 09:09 AM   #329
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So spawn was one of the Seers...

Three possibilities:

1. Kath and/or Lhuna are wolves who killed spawn for her suspicion of them.
2. Evening the male/female ratio, as suggested previously.
3. Wolves setting up an innocent Kath/Lhuna and happened coincidentally to find a Seer.

I agree with the double lynching plan, though not with TGWBS's version of lynching all males. Both because of the previously mentioned problems with numbers of remaining villagers and the possibility of killing the remaining Seer,
but also because it diverts attention from my side of the divide too well. I would be quite surprised to not find at least one female wolf.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lmp on Farael
1. He has picked his target and is going whole hog after that one person until that person's identity is known one way or the other. This would not be a surprise.
I'm inclined to think this is the case.

I'm off to reread Lhuna's posts.
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Old 03-19-2006, 09:21 AM   #330
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Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee
What do you mean by that Cailin? I'm not accusing you or anything, I just don't catch your meaning.
I was trying to imply that of the nine (now ten) people who have posted so far, I would not be surprised at least one of them has their own hidden agenda.

Quote:
I can see Eomer's point, in that there's no advantage to us drawing this affair out, but what if we've been wrong and Kath and Lhuna are both innocent? From Spawn's accusations of them both we can be fairly sure neither of them is the seer, but losing two ordos would be a major blow nonetheless, much moreso than losing only one. We could potentially lose three innocents (one of which could be the seer) by daybreak tomorrow. Are we ok about that? It's an idea with merit, this I do not deny, but it's a risky one, and we should all be aware of that before we commit to a course of action.
Well, that's why we should wait for all people to have a say first, as far as that is possible. But it is unlikely - if the wolves indeed are smart - that suspicion of either Lhuna or Kath would disappear tomorrow if it does not toDay. By lynching them one at the time, all we would do is buy the wolves another Night to kill more innocents and we'd be in the same position with less allies left.

I hope you see my point: unless Lhuna or Kath is the other Seer (which is almost impossible), the Seer would not be sacrificing him/herself to save one of them and one more Night is not beneficial for either them or the village. The villagers are by now so suspicious of the both of them that unless someone comes along with groundbreaking theories or evidence, they are going to end up lynched anyway. And then a double-lynching is better than one.
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Old 03-19-2006, 09:29 AM   #331
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I've just gone back through some of the earlier posts by Lhuna and Kath and have come to the conclusion that maybe a double lynch would be the correct action for today. I want to make it clear, though, that while I support such a course of action today I do not necessarily think it should be the norm from now on.

Also, I said we could end up with three dead innocents by daybreak, but that's only one eventuality. There are many possibilities, too many for me to list, but her's the best possible scenario: we could have three dead wolves by daybreak. How? Well, there are other ways it could work but: Kath and Lhuna are wolves, but not lover wolves (that's two dead wolves). By night the first wolf vote cast is for the ordo-lover. That would kill the third wolf and rid us of the lovers. So, on closer inspection Eomer's plan is a good 'un.
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Old 03-19-2006, 09:37 AM   #332
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First off, sorry for the posts after Day ended yesterday. I had just jumped into reading without checking the end or the admin thread. Our dear Prophet has told me the posts can remain, which is good, because I don't have to retype my thoughts now.

Later I'll finish up the reading and catch up on everything. Oi, long day coming...
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Old 03-19-2006, 09:41 AM   #333
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Well, well, how nice of you all to plan my death while I'm not around Obviously I don't agree with you killing me but there is little point in proclaiming my innocence as that never goes down well.

As for spawn and her accusations of me, I'll have to go back and have a re-read as I hadn't noticed they were that strong until Eomer and Farael started pointing them out.

On the subject of double-lynches, I dislike them whether I'm one of the prospective lynchees or not, and would prefer not to have them, at least not this early where there is still such a high chance that we would lynch two innocents in one go.

TGWBS's idea about lynching all the males to find the Lover and possibly a wolf is a little dangerous, especially since it again involves double lynches. If all the wolves are female (as someone suggested) it adds even more danger as only the deaths of the ordo Lover and one wolf would be gained, leaving a pretty low ratio of villager to wolves. (That last bit was based on guesswork, if someone could provide the actual maths I'd be very grateful.)

As for Lhuna, I agree that spawns' death makes her look bad (and yes myself too) and I'll take a look at the posts made by her and in regard to her.

So, I'll be back later with a post when I've got all these things clear in my head.
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Old 03-19-2006, 09:59 AM   #334
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Shield

Actually Kath, I didn't refer to Spawn's accusations at all. I just agreed with the people who had already analysed Spawn's posts. Your name cropped up here, there and everywhere; and I had already suspected you.

I don't like double-lynchings either — that's why I've often campaigned against them. But since we have them at our disposal...

Use double-lynchings and 67% of deaths are decided by the village and only 33% by the wolves.

Yes, we lose innocents quicker, but our chances of catching wolves increase.
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Old 03-19-2006, 10:08 AM   #335
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Suit yourself guy, suspect me as you please... there are a few more "reminders", read up to my post if you want to see where I found them. Then you can go check by yourself.
Oh, apologies. I left out, what, one post? That brings the total up to 4 extremely vague mentionings of somebody being discussed anyway. Quick! Lynch her!

And here's the one post you mention, Farael, that I left out, because I thought it so trivial.

Quote:
I'll say it once again, Kath did post before Anguirel made the "Empress Kath of the Dread Meerkat" post. I don't know if that makes much difference, but it's good to keep the facts straight. Post 193, spawn
This is what you base your accusations on!

Answer me, if spawn had dreamt of Kath and not Lhuna, why she voted for the latter?

Yes, all of you pushing for a Kath lynching... you're just making it worse for yourself. We innocents aren't blind, you know. You can't make things up and expect us to accept them.

Call me shrill if you wish. When people dare to influence the village into accepting illogical arguments, I shall be shrill.
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Old 03-19-2006, 10:23 AM   #336
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Shield

We innocents? So you're not a wolf anymore?
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Old 03-19-2006, 11:02 AM   #337
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I know some of you hate it when I do this and I'm sorry to redo spawn but I need it straight in my own head. This is only Day 1, I'll look at Day 2 and what's been said so far toDay a little later, so if there are things I've asked which seem obvious now then don't fret, I'll pick up on them later. However, obviously I have read the posts from the following Days, so it's all a bit mixed up.

Spawn:

Day 1:
Some bewailing of Nilp and them some good advice about the voting and saying that people should act same way as usual.

Reminds that bandwaggoning is not a crime if you suspect the person. A fair point that many forget. Also asks for reasoned votes, even on Day 1, though she realises that can be hard.

Says it’s better to go after the wolves than the Lovers. Well that’s true but perhaps then the wolves may have thought she was the ordo Lover since she seems to be trying to stop people looking for them. Someone said that the wolves knew who the Lover in their own ranks was. How would they know that unless the wolf Lover had told them, and where would be the point in that? I don’t see that as a very likely course of action. I think the wolves are probably looking just as hard for the Lovers, and perhaps thought they had found one.

Argues against Valier and Guy’s being Lovers, as it seems silly that they would leave messages since whichever was a wolf, their fellow wolves would pick up on it. Again tries to dissuade people from Lover-talk. She does it so reasonably that no one but Garin seems to argue against it, but if the wolf who is the Lover had reason to think his/her partner was in the running for the Night’s kill, he/she may have picked up on these points and so suggested spawn instead.

Looks like she’s supporting Lalaith and Cailín, or actually perhaps just Cailín. Either way it’s in response to Samwise, saying his case is undetailed and unfounded.

Thought my vote odd as the reasoning was the same as that of someone in a past game, and because she thinks Eomer is a good player to keep around if innocent. While this is true, it is the not knowing whether he is innocent that causes the problems, as he is a formidable opponent. The only way to know his role is either to lynch him, the wolves to kill him or the Seer to dream of him and reveal his role. The wolves are unlikely to kill him as he can generate mass confusion on his own, the Seer is unlikely to reveal anything until they have at least two of the four wolves if not three, especially now that we only have one Seer and not two. Therefore lynching him is the only viable solution. It sounds harsh I know, but I’m scared of him!

Agrees with Lhuna and votes Eonwe since the tie is not longer there.

Picks Samwise up on a possible wolvish slip.

So, if we're trying to work out what her Day 1 dream was it was possibly Valier, Guy, Lalaith or Cailín, which leads me to think that these four are likely innocents. However, I saw nothing there to indicate that she was the Seer, and it's only by really stretching what she said that I can find anything hinty in there.

And having just seen her first post on Day 2, she was making a case against Glirdan.



Farael:
Day 1:
Actually starts off the Day trying to make a case against Ang. Well there’s a thing! Was this ever brought up? (Guess I’ll find out in a couple of pages). And if so why was it dropped? Oh and he mentioned wanting to confuse the village. I think that’s likely an in-role comment, but still.

Was still suspicious of Ang even later in that Day with Garin’s odd behaviour.

Votes Ang, and follows with an apology, which is exactly what Lhuna was accused of doing Day 2, yet no one mentioned Farael’s doing the same thing? Somethings odd there. Perhaps those focusing so much on Lhuna are trying to remove suspicion from Farael? It is possible that both are wolves and one is being used as scapegoat though.

That's all a bit farfetched I'll admit, but I just don't see why the suspicion surrounding him disappeared all of a sudden.


Lhuna:
Day 1:
Appears quite late due to timezones.

Thought Garin and Glirdan innocent. Some suspicion of Lalaith, Naria and Eonwe, with good reasoning for the first two, though she relies on feelings about the latter.

Votes Lalaith along with an apology to Garin if she’s wrong. I’ll grant this seems odd, but doesn’t she do it quite often?

It is very much against her that she did not break the tie, even with her principles and refusal to vote for someone she didn't find suspicious. Yet I wonder whether a wolf would go to such lengths and put themselves in a position where they are certain to be accused. It's possible yes, but is it really that probable? And yet with all these arguments against her I find myself leaning more and more toward the idea that it could be. Dang persuasive people! Right now, I'm switching between thinking her innocent and guilty every 5 minutes. In this 5 minutes, I'm on the innocent side.

That's it from me for now. Looking back at my ramblings it appears that I think spawn was killed due to her perhaps being the Lover, Farael is suspicious to me and I'm wondering why the suspicion on him was dropped, and while I can see the points against Lhuna right now I think her innocent. Oh, and I would rather not be killed thank you very much. Opinions welcomed!

And Eomer, one thing:
Quote:
Knowing his status may be about the most useful thing that can be garnered out of Day One.
That’s from lmp. Wasn’t just me who had the idea that we needed to know what you are.

Ooh and Cailín <-- Look! I learned! Never again shall you see a Cailin from me, as promised
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Old 03-19-2006, 11:51 AM   #338
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Alas for our deer Spawn!! May her soul rest in peace and aid us in our search for the Wolves.

Now to adress a few things.

Quote:
Or maybe it's simpler--I freely admit I haven't taken the time yet to look at spawn's posts yet. I will do it, and with the question in mind that I proposed yesterday for all wolf kills in this game: What did she get right?(Thinlo)
I like that question Thin. Definetly one that I'm thinking of at this point for both Ang and Spawn and for everyone else who gets attacked at Night.

Quote:
However, you seem convinced that Kath was dreamt of. Why? Why would the Seers pick Kath? Surely they would go for TGWBS, or Garin, or LMP, or Eomer? The loudmouths who attract attention.

I see no reason why Kath would be dreamt of on Night 2 after Day 1s proceedings. Unless Eomer had already been dreamt of and found innocent. Hmm.(TGWBS)
I must agree that I think the Seer's would have dreamed of the loudmouths first. However, I do see a reason for dreaming of Kath: her quietness. She (along with a few others amongst us) have been fairly quiet. Yes, that's how Kath normally is. Kath is intelligent and could get away with being a Wolf if she really tried and for that reason, as well as her quietness, I believe that it's quite possible the Seer's dreamed of her. However, I find a Lhuna dream much more likely.

Quote:
Day 3 - 6 men, 10 women.
Night 4 - 6, 9
Day 4 - 4, 9
Night 5 - 4, 8
Day 5 - 2, 8
Night 6 - 2, 7
Day 6 - 0, 7(TGWBS)
I must ask you this: What makes you think that the Wolves will continue to systematically attack a female each Night?? I mean, they did attack Ang. We can't base our votes on something that we have no concrete proof on.

Quote:
And a quick response to Glirdan. Don't play dumb with me, laddie! You know fine well what I was asking you. I'll say it again: If you are innocent, then why did the wolves not gleefully accuse you on Day Two, considering Anguirel voted for you? Seems very odd to me.(Eomer)
I have to options here: to either hide and make myself look more guilty, or to say straight up that I don't know....which I just did. So, as you see, I have no idea. Now, I realise that this is probably going to inciminate me more in your's (and many others) eyes, but I honestly don't know. Maybe they thought that I was in enough trouble that I'd end up getting myself lynched??

Now I'm going to go back through posts from Eonwe and Spawn from yesterDay as well as Day 1.
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Old 03-19-2006, 12:04 PM   #339
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Just popping in. There is so much to read, two pages to be exact! I will take my time and read them through. I do think the majority of the village should come up with a strategy. Perhaps a double lynch is in order today. I am not so convinced of who the two lynchees should be yet. I don't think we should treat this like a good old witch hunt,or wolf hunt. Instead we should have a consensis of people we think should be lynched TODAY.

I think the idea of killing one gender to catch the lovers is interesting....but then again...I don't know! I will be back with hopefully something helpful and not annoying.
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Old 03-19-2006, 12:23 PM   #340
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Eonwe

Day 1

Post #26 - Starts off with the basic "Oh, there's Wolves and a traitor amongst both sides". Says that he's going to vote randomly and chooses the tenth person above which happened to be Garin if nothing else turns up to change his mind.

Post #33 - Finds Lovers thing interesting. Compares the Lovers to Cobblers. Asks what the Wolves are doing about it and believe that they are doing nothing except watching their backs. Figures that the Ordo Lover is laying low. Thinks this will be a rather interesting game.

Post #38 - Finds Garin's vote interesting and thinks that mass suicides won't honour our Prophet.

Post #50 - Believes we should play this game like any other for when we weed out all the Wolves, the Lovers will be revealed as well. Thinks it's reasonable to guess that the Wolves are equally divided in gender then edit's and changes mind (thinks our Prophet chose the Wolves completely randomly).

Post #57 - More talking about the Lovers.

Post #60 - Is baffled by TGWBS but will hold off suspicions of him for later. Edits: finally realises that when one Lover dies, the other does as well.

Post #62 - Quotes Garin and says that he forgot to mention he was a lazy way-faring stranger.

Post #88 - Votes Garin (randomly). Says it's funny because he started the bandwagon.

Day 2

Post #170 - Likes the fiery discussions that have been raised. Mourns over Ang. Says he will try to go through all of the days posts as well as the Day 1 posts for personal analysis.

Post #197 - Votes Valier because he does not want to be lynched by Prophet (as said in Post #1) and Valier posted before him.

Well, there's not much to gather from his Day 2 posts. I did find something interesting in Day 1 though. In his post #33, he says that he figures that the Ordo Lover is probably laying low. I'm inclined to agree with him on that and there are a few who have been rather quiet. Those would be Naria, Caranlondien, Valier and Kath. I think we should start looking at the other three (Kath has been looked at already toDay).

I may not be able to return with my analysis on spawn until later.
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Old 03-19-2006, 12:32 PM   #341
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glirdan

Those would be Naria, Caranlondien, Valier and Kath. I think we should start looking at the other three (Kath has been looked at already toDay).

I may not be able to return with my analysis on spawn until later.
I can only speak for me, but I know I have not been that quiet. I know I have not come up with anything substancial as of yet, but with the time zones I find it a little hard to keep up, with all the people we have in this village.
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Old 03-19-2006, 12:34 PM   #342
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An impassioned plea

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glirdy
I must ask you this: What makes you think that the Wolves will continue to systematically attack a female each Night??
Well, the entire point of killing off the men is to get the Lovers. If the wolves kill a male, they simply make it easier for us to get rid of them. Then aid us.

Eomer: Sorry. I forgot my place for a moment.

Now, the impassioned plea.

If we are to adopt the double lynching scheme, it MUST be done TODAY. It cannot wait. Already there is a tiny chance - 6% - of failure if all the wolves are female. Waiting any longer to implement the plan means we will not have enough days to do so.


Not only does double-lynching men mean we will definitely catch the lovers, it also increases our chances of catching wolves, as Eomer rightly said.

Observe:

We lynch one person today. It is random. They have a 4/18, that is a 22% chance of being a wolf.

We lynch two people. There is a 14/18 x 13/17 chance of their being an innocent; that is, a 40% chance of being a wolf.

These are random chances, not real chances. In real life the wolves influence us, and lead us astray, a problem with four of them. By limiting who we vote for to the male gender, we reduce the randomness of the votes and minimise the wolvish influence, so that in real terms, the chance of catching a wolf is significantly higher.

Not to mention a 25% chance of grabbing the lovers today, or a 50% chance over two days.


I will reiterate, this is the FINAL day that this is realistically possible. It makes sense to accept it, as hard as it may seem, men. Embrace your suicidal tendencies for the greater good.
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Old 03-19-2006, 12:36 PM   #343
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My first reaction to TGWBS's plan is that it seems foolish. I think it's a plan that the wolves would be fine going along with; they, too, want to discover the lovers. Furthermore, I think that the remaining female wolves would have an easier time hiding amongst the innocent females who would essentially have been hand-picked by the wolves, through their kills each night. As has been pointed out, there are several of us who are comparatively quiet (for my part, it's due to lack of experience ) At the end of TGWBS's plan, the remaining female wolves would be able to use that quietness to shift suspicion to the wrong people. In fact, TGWBS's plan seems like one the wolves might come up with...
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Old 03-19-2006, 12:40 PM   #344
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caran

In fact, TGWBS's plan seems like one the wolves might come up with...
I may be but that would put him in great immediate danger if he was a wolf by purposing we kill the men first. Could be a VERY bold bluff.
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Old 03-19-2006, 12:40 PM   #345
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Originally Posted by Caralondien
In fact, TGWBS's plan seems like one the wolves might come up with...
Wonderful percentages those...
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Old 03-19-2006, 12:45 PM   #346
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
that would put him in great immediate danger if he was a wolf by purposing we kill the men first. Could be a VERY bold bluff.
One that I think he's already proved himself capable of by calling himself a wolf every other post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TGWBS
Wonderful percentages those...
Werewolves win as a team, meaning they can afford to make sacrifices. I'm just made very nervous by the fact that a plan like this announces our intentions for the rest of the game, giving the werewolves the upper hand, as they can both weed out the lovers and take their time deciding exactly which female ordos to put their female wolves up against.
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Old 03-19-2006, 12:48 PM   #347
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I have little time now but just quickly stopping by.

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Ooh and Cailín <-- Look! I learned! Never again shall you see a Cailin from me, as promised
Kath, dear, you make me so proud. I'd almost not want to suspect you anymore. I'm glad to see a substantial post of yours.

TGWBS, have you so little confidence in us finding wolves that you propose such a drastic plan? I see you believe in neither Lhuna's nor Kath's guilt, but surely you must have some ideas. I am inclined to believe this is just more suicidal tendencies. Normally I'd go along with such a plan, I believe, were I not almost convinced of Lhunardawen's wolvishness.
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Old 03-19-2006, 12:50 PM   #348
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Shield

Something has changed.

TGWBS, despite your vote for me yesterday, I have faith in you.

If we're going with two males then I suggest Glirdan (because Anguirel's killer may be obvious) and Farael (because of his weirdness regarding Anguirel and Kath). I also think it's wise to lynch Lhuna. What say to a Lhuna & male lynching tomorrow?
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Old 03-19-2006, 01:03 PM   #349
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Quote:
In fact, TGWBS's plan seems like one the wolves might come up with...
True. Even though one (TGWBS) of the wolves, or even two were male the idea would be profiting for them.
I don't think the idea is good. Haven't you people thought that if we only follow that plan, we can't lynch any female suspects, and that's over half of the village. A stupid idea, I daresay.

Quote:
Or maybe it's simpler--I freely admit I haven't taken the time yet to look at spawn's posts yet. I will do it, and with the question in mind that I proposed yesterday for all wolf kills in this game: What did she get right?(Thinlo)
I wasn't the one who said that...

Spawn was a seer. She knew that if she died her posts would be analysed very carefully. If she wasn't sure of Lhuna's guilt, why would she have attacked her so fiercely? She might have voiced suspicion of her, but I don't believe she would have been so steadily against her at the end. Though I fear we're again following wrong traces and lynching an innocent again.

Someone, I don't remember who and when, said that it would be strange if the seers dreamed of Kath and Eonwe. What particularly strange is there?
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Old 03-19-2006, 01:07 PM   #350
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Formendanalysis

Because I've been a little uneasy about him.

Day 1

Post 27

Unwilling to accuse as it will result in it being used against him later.

Post 64

Analyses us all. What stands out about this post is the inability to make any concrete stands. He just vaguely accuses or defends everybody, with a huge show of being unsure and not knowing where to turn.

Interestingly, he doesn't analyse Eonwe... but I have no idea why.

Anywho, he says that spawn is probably evil due to her name. He suspects Garin because of his track record - illogical.

Says the wolves should fear Anguirel for being intelligent - a warning to his friends? A call for support? And then, Ang dies...

It's hard to make much, really, from the uncommited material he gives us.

Post 121

Says Garin should be saved because he once modded a game with him in it. I see. And yet, there was suspicion before. Odd.

Says Glirdan seems normal and then votes for me - an easy vote. He also creates a tie but 12 minutes before the deadline, hoping somebody will break it. Strange man.

Post 131

Joke.

Post 133

Says nothing important, he will return later.

Day 2

Post 203

Gloats about Garin being innocent, and how he knew it...

Says Anguirel's death is "a heartening choice on the part of the wolves." How did we miss this before?!

Says that I said 9 people voted for Garin, questioningly. If you don't know something, look it up, darn it!

Defends Lhuna - says she votes late due to timezones. Says he finds the idea of him and Lhuna as lovers interesting, and something Nilp would do. Hmmm.

Post 213

Tries to deflect suspicion from Lhuna to Samwise. Then says he doesn't seriously suspect him! But that by trying to save Garin, he was actng on Wolvish knowledge. Doesn't bring up that the same could be said of him.

Says to watch for Lovers giving hints. Him and Lhuna?

Post 216

Says Cailin got him thinking about Thinlomien, vaguely accuses her, then says he's inclined to not think her guilty. Sigh.

Ponders whether Glirdan or I could have lovers.

Post 222

Seems surprised that the innocent lover knows the wolves. This is obvious.

Jokes a little with Cailin about voting for him, and reiterates that he is not convinced with the Thinlomien case. Why are he and Cailin talking on such amicable terms?

Post 283

Looks at Eonwe and Lhuna for being frontrunners. Thinks neither is innocent. Wastes vote on Kath. Accuses her of flip-flopping. What happened to him on Garin?


Conclusion: Worried. Seems loverly, and not in a good way. I don't like his lack of commitment.
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Old 03-19-2006, 01:07 PM   #351
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Spawn

Day 1

Post #7 - Mourns the loss of our Prophet. Agrees witht Lhuna that Day 1's aren't just random blabberings and also believes that it is highly likely that no Wolf would get voted for that Day. Thinks people should vote for someone they find most suspicious then says we should leave the voting talk for when that time comes around. Finds it good that Lalaith wants to help the quiet ones yet believes that it will be easier for the loudmouth Wolves to hide if she does so.

Post #17 - Quotes Thinlo and says that you are not bandwagoning if your vote is for someone that you think is guilty. Continues by saying that as long as someone gives a good reasoning behind their vote, it will help us find the Wolves. Quotes Ang and says that as soon as all the Wolves are dead, the mysterious Lover will be too. Reagards the Ordo Lover as a Cobbler.

Post #30 - Quotes Gurth and Garin and disagrees that Valier and TGWBS are the Lovers. Quotes Samwise and says that Cailin was just filling out her duties as town gossip and that her vote for Lalaith is purely random.

Post #124 - Takes a moment to ponder the voting. Can't tell much of Cailin or TGWB's vote. Thinks that Garin might have been bluffing when he said "I am actually not sure what came over me, I've always held the suicidal with great contempt." Thinks that Lalaith's vote for TGWBS could be considered as suspicious because her votes is based on occupation. Can't make hide or tail of Eomer's master plan so doesn't think of anything of his vote. Finds Kath's vote wierd. Finds tar's vote the best reasoned of the day. Wasn't impressed by Eonwe's voting reasons. Finds Celuien's vote reasoned. Doesn't know what to think of Glirdan's reasoning but finds him acting completely normal. Finds Farael is acting normal but disagrees with his voting reason. Finds Naria's behaviour completely normal but doesn't like it. Doesn't find Caranlondien suspcious. Can't tell much of Valier's vote for Glirdan as she doesn't give reasoning why she finds him suspicious.


Post #128 - Votes Eonwe because his vote is to wierd.

Day 2

Post #151 - Wants to go through Ang's posts even though Tar had already done so. Finds that most of Ang's posts were speaking against Glirdan yet she finds that Glirdan had been acting like usual. Doesn't think the Wolves went after Ang because he was a Seer but assumes that the Wolves are trying to get rid of them ASAP.

Post #164 - Quotes Lalaith and asks why would the Wolves have though Ang was Garin's fellow Seer if Garin was proved innocent at the end of Day 1. Finds that Lhuna's behaviour has changed. Found Form's behaviour rather risky.

I have to finish here for the time being. I'll be back later (hopefully) to finish it off.
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Old 03-19-2006, 01:15 PM   #352
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You know TGWBS.... your plan might have the right odds but.... if we set out to do it, it's a win for the werewolves. No, they won't be too silent, but of course they won't be too loud... the female werewolves just have to go with the flow of the village, discussing calmly the death of every single male, even their furry counterparts. Given that they know who the males are (and given that the male werewolves will probably accept their faith and make the sacrifice) they'll accuse them, look innocent enough for the rest of the village and sail easily for the win.

If you can tell me how you will avoid the female werewolf/werewolves from going after their own kind and looking innocent enough after all is said and done, be my guest and start the lynching.... but until then, I say we drop this crazy theory.

By the way, Kath
Quote:
Originally Posted by Myself
Sorry if I'm mistaken, but I can't believe a true seer would be so careless.... and I don't think it was JUST roleplaying, the choice of words was too strong.
I'm not really apologising to Anguirel for the vote, I'm saying that I'll be sorry if I vote for a seer. I'm sure you'd be sorry too, or are you one of the four people who rejoiced in Spawn's death?
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Old 03-19-2006, 01:17 PM   #353
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I have to vote soon and again I have no idea, who to vote. The signs lead to Lhuna, but then again, I/we might be completely misled. I don't know what to think, and I don't feel that it's very fair to vote Lhuna before she's got a chance to defend herself.
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Old 03-19-2006, 01:17 PM   #354
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Defending The Plan. Yes, it deserves capitals.

Quote:
Werewolves win as a team, meaning they can afford to make sacrifices. I'm just made very nervous by the fact that a plan like this announces our intentions for the rest of the game.
The aim of the plan is not to map out the rest of the game. It is to root out the lovers. It could, if we are lucky, be finished toDay. There is a 50% chance it will be done by tomorrow.

Quote:
giving the werewolves the upper hand, as they can both weed out the lovers and take their time deciding exactly which female ordos to put their female wolves up against
This is a valid argument, and one I had not thought of. However, as I have said, the plan would ideally be implemented today and over and done with by the end of tomorrow (there is a 50% chance of this happening). This means the wolves probably wont be able to handpick absolutely everybody.

Quote:
TGWBS, have you so little confidence in us finding wolves that you propose such a drastic plan?
I have little confidence in a blind village with wolvish influence. I have more confidence in convincing statistics with no lupine influence.

Quote:
I see you believe in neither Lhuna's nor Kath's guilt, but surely you must have some ideas.
Actually, I think there may be a case against Lhuna. But most of my suspicions are against males.

Quote:
TGWBS, despite your vote for me yesterday, I have faith in you.
Thank you. I have been more convinced of your innocence this day due to your willingness to use double lynchings to our advantage.

Quote:
If we're going with two males then I suggest Glirdan (because Anguirel's killer may be obvious) and Farael (because of his weirdness regarding Anguirel and Kath). I also think it's wise to lynch Lhuna. What say to a Lhuna & male lynching tomorrow?
I want to analyse them properly. I agree with Farael, but I want to look into Glirdan. There's also a tiny chance that Farael is the other Seer, but poor at communicating his discovery. I'm looking at Form or Gurthang too.

As for lynching Lhuna - I want the lovers. I'd prefer sticking to men.
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Old 03-19-2006, 01:20 PM   #355
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgwbs
As for lynching Lhuna - I want the lovers. I'd prefer sticking to men.
Why the lovers? Why not the wolves? they are a bigger threat and finding the wolves leads to finding the lovers.

edit: Just noticed this was my 800th post! Hooray!
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Last edited by Thinlómien; 03-19-2006 at 01:41 PM.
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Old 03-19-2006, 01:22 PM   #356
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If you can tell me how you will avoid the female werewolf/werewolves from going after their own kind and looking innocent enough after all is said and done, be my guest and start the lynching.... but until then, I say we drop this crazy theory.
This is where people start using their brains. The plan will hopefully only take two days.

Once the lovers are dead, villagers have nine pages of records to go through for evidence. And, of course, new evidence will arise in the following pages. We manage by analysis now, and after managing by statistics, I see no reason why we would be unable to recommence managing by analysis.
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Old 03-19-2006, 01:29 PM   #357
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TGWBS
This is where people start using their brains. The plan will hopefully only take two days.
But what if it doesn't? It seems like you're trying to comfort us with a 50% chance. But there's a 50% chance it won't be that short.

Quote:
The aim of the plan is not to map out the rest of the game. It is to root out the lovers.
Regardless of what you proclaim the "aim of the plan" to be, it is what it is, and it does map out a large part of the rest of the game, if our 1 in 2 chances go against us. I understand the desire for some orderly, systematic way of doing things, but I think that any such system only benefits the werewolves, allowing them time to plan what to do at the end of the road.
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Old 03-19-2006, 01:30 PM   #358
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I hate this. There is nothing particularily suspicious about Lhuna except spawn's suspicions of her... I don't have strong beliefs about Lhuna being a wolf, but I don't have such beliefs about anyone else either...
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Old 03-19-2006, 01:31 PM   #359
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Why the lovers? Why not the wolves? they are a bigger threat and finding the wolves leads to finding the lovers.
I am working in reverse.

Killing the men means we will definitely get the lovers. Once we have the lovers, we have one wolf to work from.

As well as this, I don't like the innocent lover. They look innocent to the Seer, like a cobbler. This could ultimately be our ruin.
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Old 03-19-2006, 01:35 PM   #360
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the guy who be short
This is where people start using their brains. The plan will hopefully only take two days.

Once the lovers are dead, villagers have nine pages of records to go through for evidence. And, of course, new evidence will arise in the following pages. We manage by analysis now, and after managing by statistics, I see no reason why we would be unable to recommence managing by analysis.
No good analysis will happen as the wolvish slip-ups are usually with regards to them not wanting to vote/acuse too strongly another werewolf, nor someone who is bound to be known innocent shortly thereafter. If they know they'll loose the male wolves anyway, the female ones will probably act accordingly and sound exactly like any other villager..... if this plan is implemented and up until the moment is done, there will be no useful discussion Guy.... you just don't see it, do you? a 50% chance is not certainty by a long shot.... and once we all agree to go on with this insanity, the shewolves will agree to it as well and just follow along. No-one can blame them of bandwagoning as it will be the village's policy.... discussion will be reduced to the male werewolves doing their best to get innocents lynched before themselves and so giving their female counterparts a better chance once they are dead.... while the females keep safe.
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