Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[Mithalwen]

I's getting a bit late for me.... Must try to decide. And reread Noggie on Menel yesterday. Just that vote when it was too late to count (and which he hasn't explained) seems as if it could be wolf on wolf... but his interraction with Menel may enlighten. Volo raised some interesting points about him too but it is good to look for oneself....

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I see opinions are flying around. I don't have much time now, and I won't be here for the DL. So I'll just vote. I first thought about Kath, since as I said earlier, my suspicion on Noggins does not reach any alarming level right now... and seeing quite a lot of people suspect her as well, I think it might be an attempt in a good way, hopefully.

Oh, and one note:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

But then [Legate] voted Menel and that made him look innocent - until the beginning of this Day when someone came up with the possibility of two wolf groups.

It was myself

I'll decide yet about the vote, but will just read through here, but I think I cannot contribute in any way to this discussion... I'll post my vote in short time.

[Rikae]

Aganzir, that was not nice....

Boro is evil.
From his arguments with Menel yesterday, to his initial post today, and through until now, he has maintained a certain calmness and equilibrium - there is a lack of drive; his accusations (and declarations of probable innocence) sound reasonable on the surface, but lack substance or reasoning worthy of such an experienced player. Mind you, I don't mean the calm of an ordo, who knows their death is not important...it's an indifference, not to his own death, but to the guilt or innocence of others...a lack of rigorous reasoning...

If no one will join me now, I plan to analyze him thoroughly tomorrow. If I am dead, you know who to go for...

In any event, I will put my money where my mouth is...

++Boromir88

Is a wolf, or I'll eat my headset, cord and all.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Ah but it makes typing quicker if you don't expalin what seems obvious! Yes I sawTGWBS 's vote after I had posted my query about your (Nogrod's) vote timing.

But what seems obvious when you type may not be obvious by the time when you click the submit button...

And about my vote-timing. I almost forgot.

If you look back to the last ten minutes or something I was the one who was actually wishing for a Kath or Shasta vote by then as Menel was my third candidate (he looked a heck of more suspicious than Xyzzy who was about to be lynched but I would have preferred Kath or Shasta anyway). I went through some trouble to find out who could yet vote and what's the possibilities on those last minutes, counting it all the time. I don't remeber the exact times but after Sixth's vote I went mad and got to look once again the possibilities. It seemed quite a lost case - not even to lynch Menel as I doubted Xyzzy would appear anyhow. I only remember that when I got to refresh the window both Legate and Xyzzy had given their votes. I got in to make my vote and felt happy that we had managed to lynch one who was more probably a wolf (Menel) than the other candidate (Xyzzy) with 5 votes over 4 as no one was to be coming in at the actual last minute. The truth was revealed after I had cast my vote...

Anyone who wishes. Try to make it better yourselves the next time.

It's easy to say afterwards when you have time to think what one should have done in a tight place.

EDIT: X'd from Mith onwards...

[Mithalwen]

Blimey Rikae - I am checking for new posts after I get to a page end in my reread - and after the first few pages the only thing I felt certain of was that Boro was innocent. Now I have to decide if I was completely misled. Or if I should look at you..and I have so little time now aieeeeee

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Boro is evil.
From his arguments with Menel yesterday, to his initial post today, and through until now, he has maintained a certain calmness and equilibrium - there is a lack of drive; his accusations (and declarations of probable innocence) sound reasonable on the surface, but lack substance or reasoning worthy of such an experienced player. Mind you, I don't mean the calm of an ordo, who knows their death is not important...it's an indifference, not to his own death, but to the guilt or innocence of others...a lack of rigorous reasoning...

Well, I don't know... Boro seems quite ok to me, but you do as well... from the beginning I feel it more like a two-innocent skirmish... though I am more sure with you than with Boro... but still he seems innocent to me...

And this *points up at Noggins' post* is what makes me feel good of Noggie in short. I don't think he could arrange that, even if they were together with Isabell - how would they plan this?

EDIT: X-ed with Mith

[Mithalwen]

Not really convinced this post was made 8 minutes before the deadline. A bit late to get a swing especially when (unlike Rikae) you aren't putting your money where your mouth is. You really seem a bit halfhearted in wanting Menel gone - given that you were around when Boro and I voted for him just before 10 but you wait a full hour before trying to drum up support for your prefered candidates and after Xyzzy had received another vote. WIth half an hour to go.. how realistic was this.... ?

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Volo - I found something worth noticing in his behaviour.
When someone says he has been behaving suspiciously, he thanks them for pointing it out, saying he has forgotten about it and then tells what he has done wrong, in a regretful way. If he's a wolf, it's too easy for him to make himself look innocent by doing that - confessing he's been wrong and being sorry.
See posts #142 and #155.

Haha! Funny of you to mention this as I recall being arrogant in the preveous game and the game I was Wolf in. And don't forget that you yourself are often appologetic.

Gah. Nogrod, I don't know how you manage it, but I woudn't like to suspect you. Last time it was this hard to suspect people was after I lynched the Innocent Diamond...


EDIT: Xd with Mith.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, I don't know... Boro seems quite ok to me, but you do as well... from the beginning I feel it more like a two-innocent skirmish... though I am more sure with you than with Boro... but still he seems innocent to me...

You must remember that Boro almost always looks innocent... I must say that I share Rikae's sentiments with Boro to a degree. And Boro had a perfect cover in the fact that him going after Menel on Day1 would be no news anyhow and would look perfectly normal. So he would have had a nicely prewritten role for Day1 with almost no danger of getting lynched. And what happened?

But. There are things I'm not quite so secure with.

Was Menel wishing to sacrifice himself for Boro to go forwards? With their mutual history... well I think I don't know enough about it. Maybe someone of you "elders" might say a word on this?

Or was it that Boro had the perfect luck as he was the bear/godzilla/member of the other clan and hit the jackpot? I could imagine Spm making two competing wolf-gangs and putting Menel and Boro to the opposing teams just for the fun of it... although as far as I know Boro tends to win those matches so it might be a bit unfair. Someone who knows better might fill us in with this one.

Taking these into account I would be reluctant to vote for Boro without better reasons as the problems seem heavier. Losing an innocent Boro would after all be a big loss - not the least in a game where we will have two or even three kills per Night and all those silent partners around...

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Not really convinced this post was made 8 minutes before the deadline. A bit late to get a swing especially when (unlike Rikae) you aren't putting your money where your mouth is. You really seem a bit halfhearted in wanting Menel gone - given that you were around when Boro and I voted for him just before 10 but you wait a full hour before trying to drum up support for your prefered candidates and after Xyzzy had received another vote. WIth half an hour to go.. how realistic was this.... ?

Actually that post makes me feel safer about Nogrod. Especially if Izzie is Innocent. The post can well be directed to the next Day in case Nogrod wouldn't survive the Night.


EDIT: Xd with Nogrod

[Mithalwen]

Kath seems cobblerish but Nogrod now seems wolfish.

Don't know what to think about Rikae now she has suspected Kath and then reduced her suspicion . Had a little spat with Aganzir, a bigger spat with Boro, and voted for Boro (which she said she probably would). She has seemed reasonable on so much but the fact we have drawn such vastly different conclusions regarding Boro is making me linger.

There are occasions when innocents destroy each other but they both seem so certain that they are on different sides ..it is arresting.

But I'm tiring and my concentration is not improving...

[Mithalwen]

Volo, sorry I don't quite understand what you are saying ... and I can think of a few game where Boro got lyncehd as an innocent day one.. so...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

You really seem a bit halfhearted in wanting Menel gone - given that you were around when Boro and I voted for him just before 10 but you wait a full hour before trying to drum up support for your prefered candidates and after Xyzzy had received another vote. WIth half an hour to go.. how realistic was this.... ?

Meanwhile I was making my post #111. It is about 50 minutes after your vote. Yes. And it took me that long to make. Sorry. I'm a slow one (ask Lommy, she loses her nerve with me when we play with the same computer because I need time ).

And anyhow your argument is totally missing the point. I wasn't enthusiastic to see Menel gone as I didn't think him the best candidate. Sadly we normal people here don't know what is the role the others have so we can't know beforehand who is the right lynchee! I thought he was a better candidate for lynching than Xyzzy was but as I said, I preferred to see Kath or Shasta gone.

How many times this has to be said?

Gah...

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Volo, sorry I don't quite understand what you are saying ... and I can think of a few game where Boro got lyncehd as an innocent day one.. so...

Umm... Yes? Neither do I understand you.


I myself am more willing to vote for somebody who has managed to slip under pretty much everybody's radar. Such as Mormegil and Feanor, followed by Shasta, Sixth, Izzie and to some extent tgwbs.

Although I don't have high hopes for this plan working... Well, suit yourselves in the Days to come.

And is it just me or has the suspicion level been low on the whole? A few accusations here and there, and that's it...

I better go sleep.


EDIT: Xd with Nogrod

[Mithalwen]

And that is all very well but sometimes you have to accept that you aren't going to get what you want and make the best of it. And set and example. It just seems sneaky to say I voted so late because I wanted someone else lynched. At least Rikae has the courage of her convictions - even though I don't really agree with them. But yes I am getting fixated.

Gah .... Anyone want to gang up for a cop out vote for Gil?

[Kath]

Mith is quite correct. Although I wasn't aware of a change in my playing style I do have a lot more time on my hands at the moment so if there has been one it may be down to that. It's been a long time since I joined a game in order to fill time constructively rather than for procrastination purposes!

Anyway, so. The results of my rather longwinded analyses came out looking something like this:

Guilty:
Lommy
Nogrod
Sixth

Innocent:
Aganzir
Mith
Rikae
Boro

Don't know:
Volo
Legate
Guy
Izzie
morm
Gil
Fea
Shasta

Of the ones I have down as guilty I would be most inclined to vote Lommy, but she has had so little time to post so far that I really don't want to. It could be the time constraints on her that is causing the odd feel in her posting. Given that my vote is more likely to go to Nogrod, who also feels very off to me, but has had far more opportunity to speak.

Oh and I wanted to say something about Gil. If he never turns up I think it extremely unlikely that he has a special role of any kind. Given that, we should leave him be. He may be silent and so completely unhelpful in that regard but he will boost our numbers in later days when it is important.

[Mithalwen]

Ok fair point not Gil (why I am agreeing with Kath? I've jsut said I think her a cobbler? ... actually if I were to go random it might be Shasta - that first post was odd..... but I seem to be making no sense to anyone now.... least of all me *wibble*

[Kath]

You think I'm a Cobbler? I thought I was a were-bear, or perhaps a wolf. Seems I missed something. But if I was a Cobbler I'd be dead by now anyway. Only time I had that role the wolves killed me first Night.

Just me, Mith, Noggie and Volo around. Where is everyone else? It's getting pretty close to the deadline for so many to be missing.

[Volo]

Gah. I'm still in my school day rythm, not WW Day rythm. I'm sleepy. I want to go to sleep. Good night and good Night.

++Kath

May you have a good time reading through the thread later on.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kath

Just me, Mith, Noggie and Volo around. Where is everyone else? It's getting pretty close to the deadline for so many to be missing.

I'm here, deciding whether to vote you or not, Kath. I'm pondering Isabellkya, who, after all, seemed sinister also after yesterDays events when she saved Menel, though as she puts it it was unintentional. There's so little input from her - but the input that is, unlike from the others who also have little input, does not feel much good. But I don't know and to be honest, I am tired. So I'll probably not complicate the things and vote you.

Will shut down the light, turn on the alarm clock and when I return, I'll post my vote.

EDIT: X-ed with Volo.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

And that is all very well but sometimes you have to accept that you aren't going to get what you want and make the best of it.

I agree. But as long as you have a chance to avoid the lynching of someone you feel is clearly less suspicious than some others then the innocent villager tries to avoid lynching the innocentish with all effort. Remeber. You speak with hindsight here. I acted in total darkness as to who where what yesterDay.

At least Rikae has the courage of her convictions - even though I don't really agree with them.

I'm not sure if it's courage vs. sneakiness if someone votes early (RL reasons are a good reason to vote early anyhow - but early votes are always easier) even if independent-mindedly or actually takes part during the minutes where things are decided. You see what happened when I did the best I could...

Do you really think a wolf-Noggie would have hanged around 1.30 AM half-dead from several days of 4 hour sleeps RL just to get more suspected? To save Menel perhaps? Oh no. I was a wolf with Menel once. I lynched him on Day1 and contributed to it heavily earlier on the Day (aided by Boro). No way. For wolf-Noggie it's the security of himself and his image among the villagers. For the innocent Noggie it's the villager's good - even if it arouses controversy or suspicions because those are needed to get things going and the wolves to reveal themselves.

We should be hunting wolves and not having this absurd cross-examination.

Or is this what to aim for Mith? How come you were so sure about Menel's guilt yesterDay? You can't say you were sure or that there weren't other candidates as suspicious as he was? How come you managed to pick him as so sure candidate?

[Mithalwen]

OK ... I have to go and I have decided that since I disagree with Rikae, noy convinced enough of Dury's goodness to join the Kath bandwaggon and am apparently just too thick to understand Nogrod. I shall take another slightly random path - Volo mentioning TGWBS made me have another look. He has made one random and one rather facile vote. It has worried me that so few have focused on so little - this may open the field usefully.

++ TGWBS

[The Sixth Wizard]

I have little time now as I am afflicted with the cursed blight of school in about an hour... but I'll vote.

Thus far the most suspicious for me have been Boro, Kath and Nogrod. I'm thinking Kath is the Cobbler or the WereBear. Nogrod looks like a wolf too... And Boro is just a bit strange. Of all of them, the first doesn't seem like he needs lynching yet, while Nogrod might be gone by the end of the Night anyway with all this mass murdering going on, so I'll vote:

++Kath

[Boromir88]

I just got back in, and skimmed through a bit, tsk tsk Rikae and Nogrod I'm going to have to tell them what is going on as they have absolutely not clue.

Anyway, I'm probably going to vote for Isabell - who made a wolvish vote yesterday and did absolutely nothing to calm my suspicions. I would vote for Rikae, because if she's not a wolf she's only harming this village, but it appears that would be a waste, plus I want to see her eat her headphones, or whatever it was she promises to do when she finds out I am no wolf.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Or is this what to aim for Mith? How come you were so sure about Menel's guilt yesterDay? You can't say you were sure or that there weren't other candidates as suspicious as he was? How come you managed to pick him as so sure candidate?

You seemed to find the reasoning good at the time. I wasn't sure but he looked the most suspicious at the time I had to vote. So I voted for him. I didn't know ...

[Aganzir]

I'm around, but I've been reading through the thread and thus been silent.
I would love to vote for Rikae, but I'm not sure if there is any chance to get her lynched. If no one else is willing to vote her, I'll probably vote for Kath.

Izzie and Shasta I'm a little worried about. Shasta hasn't been around at all toDay, Izzie has made one post if I remember correctly. But voting either of them would feel like throwing away.

edit: xed with Boro and Mith

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, why complicate it. It looks many people have chosen her anyway.

++Kath

Good night.

[Nogrod]

Oh Mith! If I'm dead toMorrow please remeber to check that woman. That vote was soo weird one at this stage...

Let's get back to toDay's bussiness.

Morm -> Kath
Lommy -> Kath
Tgwbs -> Kath
Rikae -> Boro
Volo -> Kath
Mith -> tgwbs
Sixth -> Kath (Kath5, Boro1, tgwbs1)

7 voted, 9 left to vote.

Basically it could be anyone, but practically? Any other good choices around (even if Kath sounds good to me) we should discuss?

EDIT: X'd from Sixth's vote onwards.

[Nogrod]

Updated...

Morm -> Kath
Lommy -> Kath
Tgwbs -> Kath
Rikae -> Boro
Volo -> Kath
Mith -> tgwbs
Sixth -> Kath (Kath5, Boro1, tgwbs1)
Legate -> Kath (Kath6, Boro1, tgwbs1)

[Kath]

Aganzir, I would dearly love to save my own skin by voting Rikae but I just don't think she is suspicious.

But I don't want to die. Even though so many people are finding me suspicious I think I can be of help to the village if given longer to prove myself. So I'll vote for someone I at least think is suspicious, and hope it results in my survival, if only for a little longer.

++GUY

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would vote for Rikae, because if she's not a wolf she's only harming this village, but it appears that would be a waste, plus I want to see her eat her headphones, or whatever it was she promises to do when she finds out I am no wolf.

I don't see how I'm harming the village, when I haven't accomplished anything.

[Boromir88]

So, as morm has said, Mith is most likely an innocent...can't see why she isn't. And that makes Morm also an innocent to me. Hasn't said much, acted a bit strange, but that is no wolvish behaviour Morm is doing.

I would disagree with Mith about tgwbs sudden change from Kath and Rikae looking innocent to suddenly suspecting them. I think this actually speaks to his innocence, when I've skimmed through a bunch of posts I look at pretty much only any post that has my name, and I get a much different reading when doing that than if I go through and look at every single post.

It's just the sort of thing I would say, if I were a wolf and you suspected me.~Rikae

Now this looks highly suspicious! See, realize that I am not you, and if I were a wolf, I would not wish to similar to someone else's wolvish behaviour. It's very dangerous to assume that someone (who was a wolf) would say the exact same thing you would (if you were a wolf) in a similar situation. Believe it or not, I am not this bold and daring as a wolf, I am more reserved and meticulous. I don't even want to know how I look right now...probably rather straight-forward and slighly looney (only slightly ). I'm pretty much just winging out whatever springs to my mind right now.

Oh, and you however, are quite right that I am very calm right now...probably because I'm pretty confident we will have one less wolf by tomorrow morning.

And as far as Nogrod is concerned who seems like Rikae's gotten to him a bit...I expect more of the crackpot plans and bluffs he talks about. That is very Nogrod like, so I find him to be a lost innocent right now who's taken too much ear into Rikae's obviously wrong 'case' against me. And naturally, Nogrod's style of thinking of the unconventional, is quite nice to have around (as we get to see an consider other possibilities), but it always butts into my straight-forward (and as Nogrod said one time...'no-nonsense') style of playing.

Edit: x-posted with everyone since my last post

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, why complicate it. It looks many people have chosen her anyway.

++Kath

Well. If everyone votes the same person we have nothing to read toMorrow from the voting. It's the perfect hide-out for the wolves.

I agree with Agan that Shasta and Isabell could be good candidates as well (I've almost totally forgotten Shasta toDay).

Not the least because with this rate of killings during the Nights we're losing our active players in one or two Nights and then the village is very quiet indeed...

[Boromir88]

If there's no other possible candidate besides Kath, I will refrain from voting for today. As any other vote would be a waste and I do not wish to contribute to the lynching of a person I believe is innocent.

[Aganzir]

Haven't voted:
Aganzir
Gil
Shasta
Nogrod
Boro
Isabell
Fea

Will vote, I guess:
Aganzir
Nogrod
Boro

If we want to lynch someone else than Kath, it would require at least two others coming online. Gil and Shasta probably won't, but Isabell and Fea might come - I don't know.
This is not to say "let's not lynch Kath", this is to say I would like to see them voting also.

edit: xed with Boro

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

That is very Nogrod like, so I find him to be a lost innocent right now who's taken too much ear into Rikae's obviously wrong 'case' against me.

Um, I haven't even really made a case against you yet. Certainly not before my last post.

[Nogrod]

So Boro said he could go for Isabell as well as Aganzir?

I suspect her too but my only reservation here is her newbieness so she might have been just baffled and not knowing the situation back then... but the silence of the fiture village kind of concerns me as well and she could be more cunning than I now grant her...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If there's no other possible candidate besides Kath, I will refrain from voting for today. As any other vote would be a waste and I do not wish to contribute to the lynching of a person I believe is innocent.

Believe? Or know?

This is only going to make you look worse tomorrow - whatever Kath's role is.

[Boromir88]

So Boro said he could go for Isabell as well as Aganzir?

Oh what the heck, since enough people are talking about Isabell (I think Legate also said he may vote for her) lets give this a shot:

++Isabellyka

[Nogrod]

Where are you people?

Ten minutes!

Even if I suspect Kath more I might try Isabell just for the future talking of this village.

But three people aren't enough to do it.