WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hats off for G55 from exceptionally well put up show!

(...)

That said, nothing has changed my view on Sally (look my last posts about her) and I'm pretty much okay voting her as well.

Okay, I hate this triumphalistic attitude Nog sometimes has (the first sentence). But anyway, this "I can vote either way" really sort of pings my radar, it is a bit as if it was "I can vote G55 (especially if she's a fellow Wolf), but if I can avoid it, fine". Or, of course, if the three of them are WWs (well, in a way that would be really lucky, but we saw a Seer death on Night 1, anything is possible...), then he also does not have much choice. Hm, thinking of that, it really isn't likely that they would all be, just because of this - if they were, Nog wouldn't come up suddenly with suspicion about sally if he wanted to drive people away from his fellows.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It is true, though, that the Cobbler is probably to be found *somewhere* in the current mess. In fact I could even say Sally's behaviour might fit her being the Cobbler, unable to make up her mind if G55 is a wolf or not. –That's "might fit", mind you– I could perhaps say the same thing of Lommy, too.

Interesting point about Lommy, though again, I would sort of have expected the Cobbler being more "active" in making a mess. But, of course, maybe in this game the Cob can be a bit more careful, wishing to remain around to utilise the gift etc.? About sally, I think even *that* might be more plausible - with the randomness of some of her ideas. But that's exactly why I would like to see more from her, since now she just comes and starts talking some rather random things...

Okay, all in all, right now I feel like voting Nog, but then again, if G55 is going, then at least there will be peace of the questions and also, it might clarify the roles of sally and Nog on top of that (and either further support or lessen the reasons to my suspicion of Nog, and clarify something about sally's motives. It's also possible if e.g. she was a cobbler and it was not a Wolf-vote, or cobbler-vote or whatnot...).

EDIT: x-ed with some Nogs

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so it really makes no sense to start a third bandwagon, and I am not sure people would vote for that anyway,

++G55

P.S. I hope too many people aren't in risk of being modfired, or that they vote...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Good thing I stayed up so late (my time, anyway.) I just realized I never voted!

++G55

As I said, I feel like we pretty much have to know what she is - and if we don't lynch her, we'll likely be in the same boat tomorrow.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, I hate this triumphalistic attitude Nog sometimes has (the first sentence).

I feel everything but triumphalistic... and yes, I could vote either way as I'm not too sure about either but think that I have reason enough to wish to try either.

[Nogrod]

I see no reason to compete with how the vote is going... so

++ G55

[Nerwen]

Well, then, may as well be–

++G55

EDIT:X'd with Nog.

[satansaloser2005]

Rub you the right way? Seriously, Nog, I really [I]am[I] a delivery girl....

Well, crunch time, and since the sultry minx isn't on the table, my vote shouldn't be a surprise.

++the little Gal

Cobbler or wolf, it's still evil (although obviously I prefer the latter).

Heading into work. I hope the lynch goes good (aka not toward me, please). Good luck!


X'd since Nog's #159

[Kitanna]

With Inzil dead the drinks had stopped. This was as terrible a loss as the seer. How could they continue without Inzil giving them their ale? Angry and thirsty the Hobbits deliberated on what to do now.

“It was Gal, look how guilty she looks,” the whispers began early.

The resident Red Riding Hood had never done anything to anyone. When they were sick she'd skipped to their homes with baskets of goodies. She'd been the one to catch the wolf two years ago who had masqueraded as an elderly Hobbit with gout. But now they all whispered it was her. Her and the gouty wolf had teamed up so she got all the food.

“I've done nothing wrong!” The bewildered Hobbit lass protested.

She was ignored. Her neighbors' accusations grew louder. Terrified to her core of meeting a similar fate to Pitch's, Gal decided this would be on her terms. From her basket she produced a paring knife. It's main purpose was to cut apples, but now she used it to slice down her forearm. The vein opened and she brandished the bloody knife.

“You've all made a huge mistake!” She cried.

Her desperate plea moved no one. “Let's leave her out in the cold.” Shasta suggested. The floor already had enough blood staining it. No need to add to it.

“I won't let you touch me!” Gal was weakening as she lost more and more blood. With her good hand she took the knife and slammed it into her throat. There was a gasp, a gurgle, and wide-eyed terror as Gal slid to the floor. No one moved. Nothing happened. They'd been wrong again.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Glirdan
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Lommy
Aganzir
Sally
Kath

Night 3 Begins

According to my count Glirdan failed to vote both days. If I miscounted, please correct me before Night 3 ends.

[Kitanna]

Lommy couldn't sleep. Too many bad things were happening around the village. She sat up in her bed, a blanket over her head. There were a few hours until dawn. It was a shame daylight no longer guaranteed safety. The Hobbits had gone crazy over the last few days.

Lommy removed the blanket from her head. Something smelled of burning wood. Was that smoke seeping in under the door? Wonderful. The fiends were going to serve the wolves cooked meat for a change. The bewildered Hobbit jumped from bed, grabbing a basin of water. She pulled the door open and prepared to douse the flames.

The three stood outside her bedroom, fanning the smoke from a burning log toward Lommy's door. “Surprise,” they said. One of them slammed a fireplace poker into her gut.

Across town Glirdan burst into flames while making a midnight snack.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Aganzir
Sally
Kath

Day 3 Begins

[Nogrod]

What was the final ruling about two people tied in votes? Double-lynch, no-lynch, first to gain votes, last to gain...?

It is quite important.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I found it:

Originally Posted by Admin thread post #61

In the event of a tie the one who garnered more votes first will be lynched.

We're doomed.

It would be nice to reason the wolves out though, but yeah: this was going very badly from D1 onwards already. Well done wolfsies.

[Nerwen]

Perhaps I'm being very dense at the moment– I've had a long day– but why are we "doomed", Nogrod?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

We're doomed.

Not really. After all, there are only three wolves, whereas there are yet five innocents who can band together. If we lynch a wolf toDay, I think the village stands a fair chance of winning this. If we lynch an innocent toDay, yeah, it's a pickle, but it's still not the doom you present it to be at the moment.

Unless of course you're just trying to destroy village morale, in which case, do feel free to continue your attempts, because it won't work on me.


In other news, look at that. For once a modfire worked out in the innocents' favor. It's about time.



x'd with Nerwen

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Perhaps I'm being very dense at the moment– I've had a long day– but why are we "doomed", Nogrod?

Well, I thought it more than obvious. But if you think it isn't, then in case the wolves don't see it, I'm not going to tell it to them.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

In other news, look at that. For once a modfire worked out in the innocents' favor. It's about time.

Oops... I'm so used to bad news I had totally ignored that Glirdy was the cobbler (from a neutral POV: oh what a role wasted there...).

Well, that changes things.

Hah, I was already entertaining the idea of "revealing" myself as the cobbler and trying to lure the wolves or/and the cobbler into the open - but the tie-votes -ruling kind of destroyed the idea. Good I didn't do that. It would have looked pretty odd to reveal oneself as a dead-person's role.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Having a Cobbler dead, I think, sort of compensates for the death of two people, and maybe it is still better than having him actively messing around (although Glirdan wasn't very active). Nog's "prophecies of doom" are certainly rather overdone, but looking at the number of players, a live Cobbler could have been potentially dangerous, maybe not toDay, but soon.

In any case, one question for start toDay would be why Lommy was killed, if there can be any lead, because she wasn't very active (or distinctive in some special way), I'd say, except for her following Agan to vote for sally in the end of the previous Day.

There are many questions still existing and now it sort of seems that lynching G55 yesterDay did not actually clarify as much as I hoped it would, though at least it "clears space" for other things. Of the things it clarifies, it might possibly be only the thing that the votes of Nog and sally on Day 1 were not Wolves saving a packmate, though that of course does not rule out the possibility of the two of them being Wolves still. Also, it basically did end up being the way Nerwen feared and it was almost unambiguous vote (maybe that was also one reason for the WWs targeting Lommy, eliminating a person from the "different camp", so that eventually it would be more difficult to determine anything about the votes? Though there would probably be more reasons than just this, but it sounds rather logical to me).

As I won't be here for the DL toDay and basically the second half of toDay in general, I will try to play now and in the evening (my time). I am going to quickly take a look at Lommy's posts now, likewise it might be perhaps worth it to review Glirdy's posts, even though he probably did not have time to Cobble around much. I would also still like to take a look at Agan as I intended and maybe some of the submarines, like Shasta or Kath.

Will be around...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so Glirdan, in fact, did not say anything almost at all, basically only one of his posts being somewhat relevant, and that mentioning G55 in totally ambiguous way and also Nog in slightly defensive way, but that's it. Basically a non-appearing Cobbler.

Lommy, apart from suspecting G55, was listing also Nog and Sally as her suspects, in fact listing Nog and G55 as (possibly!) even more suspicious than Sally, however she decided to vote the latter. Maybe quoting directly:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

++Sally

Apart from Gal (and possibly Nog), she's the most suspicious person around, and like I said, we need some competition. However, if Agan and Nog are in cahoots, I'm literally going to bang my head against the wall because that was so neat.

In her list earlier, she lists also Agan there (whom she also had voted originally on Day 1) - she does not list sally back then yet:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Suspiciousish

Glirdan - mild bad vibes.

Galadriel - pretty fishy. But she's totally right about herself taking all the attention and that being very harmful if she's not a wolf herself.

Nogrod - awfully quick to throw Galadriel to the lynch block, which could make sense regardless of her role if he was a wolf himself. Just btw I didn't like Nerwen's "others, discuss this while I sit back and relax" comment, makes me suspect something fishy between Nerwie and Noggie actually.

Aganzir - she's enjoying herself too much to be completely innocent.

Of other stuff, she mentioned Zil probably dreamed Menel, I have no idea how that could be relevant (at most I would say, if Menel was a Wolf and this was true, he wouldn't want to kill her. But it's really rather random). She also believed Kath innocent.

Summa summarum - the people she suspected are the ones I find rather suspicious too, so I wouldn't be too surprised about that the motive for her death might have been, apart from what I suggested above, simply that she was suspecting a Wolf, or even several Wolves. However that kind of reasoning has not been very common among Wolves lately, I think (or at least when I was last playing), and also, she certainly wasn't the only one who suspected those people. Again, if the reason was the opposite and the WWs wanted to frame somebody up, this is rather an extensive list, so not sure if that would work (if she suspected heavily just one person, fine, I could understand that). I have not been able to find anything that would point to her looking like a Ranger in her posts, which is a motive I would have expected from the WWs the most. Maybe the WWs just feared her being a sharp player and wanted to get rid of her, then. I would bet something between that, a Wolf on the list and/or the "no track in the voting list" idea I mentioned earlier. I wouldn't put that past Agan, for instance, to get rid of Lommy in such a manner (since she just briefly dropped suspecting her at that point, so there won't be immediate connection between them), of course we still have the full amount of Wolves, the whole pack needed a decisive motivation.

I shall be around, re-reading somehow, although I also have non-WW obligations. Hope more people show up to discuss.

[Nogrod]

You do walk in interestingly ambiguos terrain Legate, and that makes me quite uneasy.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Nog's "prophecies of doom" are certainly rather overdone, but looking at the number of players, a live Cobbler could have been potentially dangerous, maybe not toDay, but soon.

No. We would have lost toDay.

Three wolf votes + one cobbler vote = 4. Now there are four innocents, but unlike the wolves & at this situation the cobbler, they can't co-operate. Add to that the fact that wolves & cobbler will probably look into the thread in time and be interested to get the picture... so they'd had all it takes to secure four votes first.

Luckily I was wrong as the cobbler is dead.

There are many questions still existing and now it sort of seems that lynching G55 yesterDay did not actually clarify as much as I hoped it would, though at least it "clears space" for other things. Of the things it clarifies, it might possibly be only the thing that the votes of Nog and sally on Day 1 were not Wolves saving a packmate

No. It is not "might" or "possibly". It definitively proved it. G55 was an ordo, if you have "forgotten" that.

I though it would be redundant or at least not worthwhile to remid you that all the suspicion you might have gathered from D1 voting is now obsolete. Dead, gone, kaputt, over and dealt with.

But it looks like Legate is too happy to try and keep up that suspicion that it makes me, as I said, quite uneasy.

Originally Posted by Legate

(maybe that was also one reason for the WWs targeting Lommy, eliminating a person from the "different camp", so that eventually it would be more difficult to determine anything about the votes? Though there would probably be more reasons than just this, but it sounds rather logical to me).

Now this sounds believable, well possible at least. How nicely you manage to get under the skin of a possible wolf-train of thought!

We need some new openings toDay as it looks like we have stuck on wrong trails the first two Days, and we just can't afford a mislynch anymore.

After saying that I have to make a similar kind of announcement Legate made. I will be coming back before going to sleep and will probably have some time then. On the latter end of the Day I'm able to come in for a shortish time, but not for long. Sorry.

[Nogrod]

Shasta, Legate, Nerwen!!!

Just thought about new openings and tried to think who are the persons who have received little or no suspicion thus far... Scary list.

Okay. No time to pursue that or any other combination of players right now. Hopefully something better, later.

[Nogrod]

PS. I still suspect Sally though, because of her totally unmerited and sudden buddy-buddying and tip-toeing from yesterDay.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

No. We would have lost toDay.

Three wolf votes + one cobbler vote = 4. Now there are four innocents, but unlike the wolves & at this situation the cobbler, they can't co-operate. Add to that the fact that wolves & cobbler will probably look into the thread in time and be interested to get the picture... so they'd had all it takes to secure four votes first.

Yes, but the Wolves would first have to communicate with the Cobbler somehow. Okay, technically it is possible, but anyway, doesn't the Cobbler still count as innocent in the tally? So we won't have lost toDay. Anyway, this is irrelevant now anyway.

No. It is not "might" or "possibly". It definitively proved it. G55 was an ordo, if you have "forgotten" that.

I am not saying "it might possibly mean these weren't Wolves saving a buddy votes", I am saying "it might possibly be the only extra thing we learned from G55's death". That was the point of the paragraph, as you can see.

We need some new openings toDay as it looks like we have stuck on wrong trails the first two Days, and we just can't afford a mislynch anymore.

Whereas I agree that we definitely should be very careful and reevaluate stuff, it does not mean dropping entirely everything. I mean, for example for me, it really did not change that much. Your and sally's vote on Day 1 wasn't a Wolf-saving-Wolf vote, that is clear, but it does not change anything about the rest of the stuff you have been saying that I considered suspicious throughout previous Days. And of course, you being earlier under some scrutiny (also by dead Lommy, nonetheless!), now trying to completely erase everything we have been gathering in the past sounds rather... well, fishy. Does not really make me see you any better.

So here. I am going to take a look at Kath and Shasta and Agan, most of all, but it will be kind of spread throughout the whole evening...

[Meneltarmacil]

As per my previous Days' statements, we should stand a good chance of finding a wolf if we look at the G55 bandwagon.

Specifically, I don't think a wolf actually started it, and probably did a back-and-forth "G55 or Pitchwife?" thing on Day 1.

After Day 1, much of the focus of conversations was on G55, who warned us that we should really look around at other people. A wolf in this case was probably trying to make sure that didn't happen. So we should be looking for someone who, during Day 2, kept trying to redirect suspicion onto G55.

I'll post an analysis of who that might be later.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, but the Wolves would first have to communicate with the Cobbler somehow. Okay, technically it is possible, but anyway, doesn't the Cobbler still count as innocent in the tally? So we won't have lost toDay. Anyway, this is irrelevant now anyway.

How about the cobbler saying: "Hi wolves, tell me what to do". That was my immediate plan of impersonating the cobbler after I saw we were reduced to 8 players. But then I saw the rule considering ties - and then I was told the cobbler was no more...

But yes, that is redundant now.

I am not saying "it might possibly mean these weren't Wolves saving a buddy votes", I am saying "it might possibly be the only extra thing we learned from G55's death". That was the point of the paragraph, as you can see.

Ahh, okay. I did read it the other way, but I guess you're right. *language*

Originally Posted by Leg

Whereas I agree that we definitely should be very careful and reevaluate stuff, it does not mean dropping entirely everything. I mean, for example for me, it really did not change that much. Your and sally's vote on Day 1 wasn't a Wolf-saving-Wolf vote, that is clear, but it does not change anything about the rest of the stuff you have been saying that I considered suspicious throughout previous Days.

Naturally we should not drop "entirely everything". Heh, I'm not sure how suspicious I should take your wordings to be, though. "Entirely everythnig"? You really thought someone suggested that?

I actually posted a postscript saying I'm still suspicious of Sally, but because of something she did yesterDay, not because of her vote on D1.

I just hope we all are able to separate the two things when facing time-constraints or other such stuff. We just can't vote wrong toDay.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, but the Wolves would first have to communicate with the Cobbler somehow.

Not really. The wolves could just have held back their votes until a sufficient number of players had voted for a non-wolf. Or the cobbler could have got himself lynched - in theory, at least, as Glirdy wasn't the most active player. In the end, all it would've taken was for one innocent to vote wrong tomorrow, and the wolves could've jumped on it. It's not like they were offered an automatic victory on a silver plate today, but as they are surely clever and all, I'm sure they would've found a way to steer the lynch in a favourable direction.

Yesterday I was feeling the worst about sally and Nog, but Legate has now pretty much replaced Nog on my suspect list. I'm also sorry about Lommy's death because I had gradually started to trust her, not the least because she followed my vote for sally. I'm also okay with Kath, so that would probably leave Nerwen or Shasta as the last wolf, or Menel because I don't think we can tell for sure if Zil dreamt of him. I read his posts and if I had to make a guess, I'd say he had decided not to leave hints yet - either because the chance of his early death was so slim, or he couldn't for some reason do that.

I'm off to see a friend now, will be back in some hours. I hope to take a look at sally and Legate then - the latter being maybe even more worrisome than the former because of the extent to which I disagree with his notions about people.

I'd also like everyone to remember that if two innocents vote for a different innocent, the wolves are free to do as they please with the lynch.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How about the cobbler saying: "Hi wolves, tell me what to do". That was my immediate plan of impersonating the cobbler after I saw we were reduced to 8 players. But then I saw the rule considering ties - and then I was told the cobbler was no more...

Yes, I see, though still, there would've been still more innocents - like I said, if the cobbler counts as innocent - and the WWs would still at least have to do a Night-kill, which the Ranger could've prevented. But yeah, whatever.

Naturally we should not drop "entirely everything". Heh, I'm not sure how suspicious I should take your wordings to be, though. "Entirely everythnig"? You really thought someone suggested that?

Well that's what seemed really suspicious to me, that you would suggest that. So if you didn't, then all right.

Anyway - okay, so I don't know how much time I will have still. I didn't have that much time after all anyway, but I managed to review the people I wanted.

Upon rereading Agan, I actually think she is not really worrisome in any special way. Yesterday, what triggered my interest in her came from her reaction to sally who voted her, Agan's vote for her seemed retaliatory. That is about the only thing, otherwise she had said a lot of sensible stuff and not really that much suspicious things, if you don't count all the "blood!" stuff, which was rather random. So I really don't feel the need to move her to any suspicious zone or anything.

Shasta was also not very striking on first Day, or in fact, on neither of them, because his posts are not very many. In any case, on first Day, he was maybe a bit "harsh" in reactions to some people, but that's about it. His vote (for G55) he claimed to be because of her original suspicion of Menel, yet then she backed away and voted Pitch instead. That's a sound reasoning. On Day 2, he continued with pursuing G55, the question is if he still found her suspicious or if it now just fitted his intentions that she was under heavy fire within the village. In a similar way, he raised a point about sally and also later slightly about Lommy. He had some good points too (like that the village should not focus only on one person - even though he said it in a context where the issue was something else at that moment, or pointing out Kath's inconsistency), but in the end the total amount of his posts is not a very big number. I would say he might be a under-the-radar type baddie who sort of fits into the flow, but he is not striking in any obvious way.

Last of all, Kath, she posted in the end probably even less than Shasta. Which is a pity, since at first she started relatively nicely and actively. Starting with discussing the Cobbler might have been a Wolf trying to turn the discussion into that (give signals to the Cobbler, make him give signals back; evidently the Cobbler did not react), but it might have been just inquisitive wish to start the conversation. She voted G55 on Day 2, based on that she thought her more likely Zil's Seer-dream than Menel. That may sound to some like a bit feeble excuse, but maybe too feeble for a Wolf. The most interesting point of all, however, is probably the "Pitch is not dead"-thing. I really wonder if a Wolf would make such a weird slip (I mean, the WWs probably should have the best idea about who is dead and who is not, unless she completely missed the game, like, rest of the Day and missing the Night or something as complicated). I cannot really imagine Kath making that up, so even though I dislike "meta-reasoning" as a rule, that would speak for her genuinity in my book.

All in all, I think - since I have to vote early - I might just go with my strongest suspicion at the moment, that being still Nogrod. If I have time, I could reread a bit of some old posts, but seriously not sure if I will have time. I shall be back still to vote in something like an hour or somesuch (or depends how long I stay up).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

All in all, I think - since I have to vote early - I might just go with my strongest suspicion at the moment, that being still Nogrod.

The reason for that being...?

Btw. where are you people? If no one else is ready to fight, neither will I use my late night for this. Honestly. Come forwards.

[Kath]

I'm going to be able to vote later tonight as it's not a school day tomorrow. Just thought I'd pop in and say.

Having quickly flicked through, I think Agan, sally and Nog could be an interesting wolf trio. Aga suspects sally but lessened her suspicion of Nog toDay in steady phases. Nog's 'fake cobbler/cobbler/no cobbler' business was ... interesting. sally? Don't know yet.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The reason for that being...?

Well, it's mostly the continuous suspicion I have of you. From Day 1, your behavior is this little by little feeding some suspicions (Day 2, BIG feeding, in fact). You were at the start of the initial debate about Menel, which might have been just testing water, and then you suddenly became active in the Pitchwagon. YesterDay, you were certainly the most vocal in the G55 suspicion - even though of course none of us has clean hands in this process, but then again, we of course cannot completely dismiss what was happening yesterDay, that's exactly what the WWs would want. In fact, if that was their intention, they in fact partially succeeded in that by now having, except for some Aganzir, basically all yesterDay's votes under the same "voting umbrella" (which once again btw brings me to the idea that that was their intention with the kill of Lommy). You were, I think (or correct me if I misremember), apart from Kath, I think the one person really pushing the "Inzil dreamed of Wolf G55"-theory, sometimes with a bit ridiculous arguments, even. Basically that.

It is true that it is now clear you weren't saving any packmate on Day 1, but the rest of it still holds. If I look around at all people here, you are the one who seems to me has been casting the most suspicions around and in fact leading the village's course the most, I'd say.

EDIT: x-ed with Kath

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, as for my planned analysis:

Nogrod looks like he might fit the bill for his Day 2 behavior.

I was looking over the posts from that day to find a point where someone other than G55 agreed with looking at other people, and I found one such instance.

Once Lommy had brought that point up, Nogrod turned up and instantly made multiple posts about G55. Nogrod later was the first person to question G55 on her "frustrated innocent" post after others were starting to waver on her.

I have also known Nogrod to play a very dangerous "influential wolf" in the past, so he's quite capable of pulling it off. Beware, villagers.

Sally also seems a bit suspicious, as she was the first to attack G55 on Day 2, with her focusing on G55's "savage blow" wording. Shasta suspected that this was an attempt at getting the villagers to focus on G55, reinforced by the fact that the first to jump on it was the Cobbler.

Sally also avoided suspecting G55 at one point, only to reverse course rather quickly after Nogrod's attack following Lommy's post.

EDIT: x'd with Legate

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, it's mostly the continuous suspicion I have of you. From Day 1, your behavior is this little by little feeding some suspicions (Day 2, BIG feeding, in fact). You were at the start of the initial debate about Menel, which might have been just testing water, and then you suddenly became active in the Pitchwagon.

With Menel I was kind of late and actually didn't so much suspect him but was asking why he was doing it (basically ending up thinking he was just out of touch), but if you look closer, the thing I was strongly against was the content of his message which was "lynch those who try to play and save the submarines" (to put it in somewhat strong terms) as I also clearly indicated he should not be lynched after coming back after such a long time.

So not Menel but what he suggested.

I don't think I suddenly became active in a Pitchwagon. He voted me against the basic reasoning an intelligent innocent keeps (don't vote someone with bad or fabricated reasons as that someone might be an innocent) and thus I thought he could be a wolf who doesn't think like an innocent has to, especially a wolf doesn't have to take care his reasons are as good as he can make as any vote for a wolf is a known vote and there is no such risk as an innocent's vote carries with it.

YesterDay, you were certainly the most vocal in the G55 suspicion - even though of course none of us has clean hands in this process

Like you say... and I was themost vocal yesterDay anyway as I had time then...

You were, I think (or correct me if I misremember), apart from Kath, I think the one person really pushing the "Inzil dreamed of Wolf G55"-theory, sometimes with a bit ridiculous arguments, even. Basically that.

Wrong again. Go and read again.

What I said was, that IF there was a seer-dream included (as to why they "knew" to pick Zil - as a possibility they got it right rather than just having a huge boost of luck), then there were two possibilities of which G55 made more sense - and actually fit nicely into the other pattern with Sally (remembering Sally's behaviour on D2 as well) etc.

If you go back and read you can see I have in one post two "arguments", one on how could it be Zil dreamt of Menel, and another on how it could be he dreamt of G55. Surely you don't try to say I was arguing them for real at the same time?

And anyway, without the hindsight we have now, I think the case with G55 being a dreamt wolf wasn't that far-fetched but actually fit in quite well with both the what happened around - and why they got Zil.

It is true that it is now clear you weren't saving any packmate on Day 1, but the rest of it still holds.

If you are an innocent, just reconsider as nothing you say holds as you can read from above. If you're a wolf as I now suspect, then what the heck... I must just hope everyone sees it.

If I look around at all people here, you are the one who seems to me has been casting the most suspicions around and in fact leading the village's course the most, I'd say.

If none casts suspicion around how are we going to vote, by rolling a dice? You actually agree, but at this moment this kind of thing suits your ends, doesn't it?

I may be bearing some considerable guilt on what has happened. I admit. But I'm not "triumphalistic" about it, as you cared to put it yesterDay. It's bad. But how about someone else started carrying the flag then? I think I have caued enough problems with my ideas about who's guilty thus far. So I'll leave it to you then. Or shall we roll a dice before the DL?

[Nogrod]

Menel (and anyone): Before you continue that "Nog lynched G55" meme, just answer one question.

Who do you think would have been lynched yesterDay had I been totally absent the whole Day?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With Menel I was kind of late and actually didn't so much suspect him but was asking why he was doing it (basically ending up thinking he was just out of touch), but if you look closer, the thing I was strongly against was the content of his message which was "lynch those who try to play and save the submarines" (to put it in somewhat strong terms) as I also clearly indicated he should not be lynched after coming back after such a long time.

So not Menel but what he suggested.

Well, that's putting it in really "strong terms", I would say rather misquoting. What he said was:

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

In any case, I suggest that if we have had no luck for the next few days and innocents die instead of wolves, we look at those who have been pushing them to their deaths. The most dangerous werewolf is an influential one, after all.

Effectively, if you took certain extreme route, it could lead to what you said, but I don't see it that way. That's really an extreme interpretation of it.

I, of course, do share your concern about quiet Wolves, as you must know. But this is not about ideology now, this is about what you use as tool to suspect someone. Suspect someone just because he has different opinion is a rather cheap way.

Originally Posted by Nog

I don't think I suddenly became active in a Pitchwagon. He voted me against the basic reasoning an intelligent innocent keeps (don't vote someone with bad or fabricated reasons as that someone might be an innocent) and thus I thought he could be a wolf who doesn't think like an innocent has to, especially a wolf doesn't have to take care his reasons are as good as he can make as any vote for a wolf is a known vote and there is no such risk as an innocent's vote carries with it.

But you turned on him. Anyway - this is more like general remark - did it ever occur to you that what you consider logical might not seem logical to everyone? Take this as friendly remark (especially if you are innocent), I think you very often have your own "clear logical set" which very often backfires, because it stems from some premise that does not really hold. (Remember that enthusiasm you yelled with when you reported G55's "Wolf slip" yesterDay. I thought that too at that moment. But it is exactly these "clear" things which often turn not to be so clear. I recall how once in my game you were sure you must lynch Roa because you were sure if she was an Ordo, she would have remembered the content of the Ordo-PM I sent to everyone...)

Originally Posted by Nog

What I said was, that IF there was a seer-dream included (as to why they "knew" to pick Zil - as a possibility they got it right rather than just having a huge boost of luck), then there were two possibilities of which G55 made more sense - and actually fit nicely into the other pattern with Sally (remembering Sally's behaviour on D2 as well) etc.

If you go back and read you can see I have in one post two "arguments", one on how could it be Zil dreamt of Menel, and another on how it could be he dreamt of G55. Surely you don't try to say I was arguing them for real at the same time?

I did not see that "if" there, but you are right, you spoke also of the other possibility. The support of "G55 was a dreamed Wolf" had drawn my attention more strongly yesterDay since your arguing for it was rather, well, illogical. But yes.

Originally Posted by Nog

And anyway, without the hindsight we have now, I think the case with G55 being a dreamt wolf wasn't that far-fetched but actually fit in quite well with both the what happened around - and why they got Zil.

Not sure what you mean by this one, but anyway, my brain is already getting sleepy.

Originally Posted by Nog

If none casts suspicion around how are we going to vote, by rolling a dice? You actually agree, but at this moment this kind of thing suits your ends, doesn't it?

Certainly not, of course. And where does all this sudden aggressivity come from? I state I suspect you and you start jumping back. Anyway, of course we need to suspect someone, what else is the game about, right? But there is difference between having your own suspicions and pressuring, openly or less openly, others to follow you. And I think, when rereading your posts, you cannot deny you have been doing that. Seriously.

Well, now I would actually really like that I could be around more - because now I would like to actually talk to you, Nog for a while still, to make more of your defense. But like I said, I cannot, I won't be around for the rest of the Day at all. Means I must vote, and despite granting some benefit of doubt of some things I said, I still think you are my best bet right now. But of course there is still the rest of the people, and with what was said about the importance of voting, I truly urge everyone to review their suspicions critically. Just let's not get led or misled.

++Nogrod

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Menel (and anyone): Before you continue that "Nog lynched G55" meme, just answer one question.

Who do you think would have been lynched yesterDay had I been totally absent the whole Day?

I do not know. I suspect you want me to say "You would, for being a submarine" or "G55, because people would still have found her suspicious." Or even, "I would, because you somehow saved me."

The truth of the matter is that I don't care to speculate on what would have been. Any or none of the above could have happened.

I also didn't suspect you as a result of Legate's posts. I came up with a likely pattern of wolf behavior, looked for someone who fit it, and that someone just happened to be you.

[satansaloser2005]

I have been unavailable for most of the day and will continue to be so until quite late this evening. I'm just popping by to post this so people know I won't be around. Moving on.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

I also didn't suspect you as a result of Legate's posts. I came up with a likely pattern of wolf behavior, looked for someone who fit it, and that someone just happened to be you.

I hate myself for defending Nog because he's bound to be a wolf if I do it, but to be honest he's always like that. You look for a potentially influential wolf, you find Nog who's always influential and a loudmouth regardless of his role.

In other words, I'm back. I'll take a quick look at sally now.

[Kath]

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler

Lommy:
Mentioned that G55 seemed to be making a case against Menel in strong terms. Yet found Menel suspicious. Seems to feel Pitch and Nog are innocent. Everyone else in 'maybe' category. Suspected Menel and G55 but didn't want to vote for them as she felt it might be their general Day 1 suspiciousness confusing things. So voted for Agan on 'gut feeling'. Suspects Nogrod for 'bussing' a wolf comrade. Remained suspicious of G55. Says if G55 is a wolf then sally and Nog's votes are suspicious. Thinks Menel was the Seer-dream as he was the first person Inzil mentioned.

So talked herself out of thinking Menel was suspicious - could Menel therefore be a wolf and the wolves are using the general good-feeling toward Menel as a nice cover? Had Glirdan, Nog and Agan down as suspicious, and possibly Nerwen. Now, even if the wolves had thought Lommy might be the Ranger, she wouldn't have had any real extra information, so could she have been killed for getting near the mark? Don't think she's a trailless kill. She posted well. Thinks Nog was talking about what the wolves thought like an insider, was suspicious of sally, but thought G55 might be a useful lynch. This wording was odd. I was thinking maybe the wolves thought she was the Cobbler, but then it makes no sense for them to kill her! Roles are giving me trouble this game.

Voted sally but looks like she's getting sure about Nog and Agan being evil. This trio stood out to me earlier too. If even two of them are wolves killing Lommy was a good move here before she started pressing them.

It does surprise me that no one has looked at Lommy's posts. Particularly people like Nog, Nerwen, Legate.


The Living ~ Posts from Day 1
Menel - was talking about 'influential' wolves not necessarily loudmouths. I do think this has been misrepresented. There is a different between having an effect within the game and being a loudmouth. Thinks Inzil's post is suspicious and almost - praises Nog - for noticing and questioning it. Votes Inzil. This is quite random. There hasn't really been much in the way of suspicions and reasoning. Following a wolf-buddy's lead?

Legate - immediately looks at Inzil and Pitch for not having very content filled posts. Early to make this kind of accusation really! Just starting conversation or testing responses maybe. Has comments on Pitch, Inzil and Agan mostly. Thinks Nog has good recent posts and that G55 is the better pick for the lynch.

Nogrod - thinks Menel does look suspicious for the way he talks about the obvious but that it could be due to not playing for a while. Talks about Inzil being spot on. I don't know whether this makes me less suspicious of him. Why say it in the thread if it's making you worried he knows a lot if you're a wolf? With G55 and Pitch now in the lynch running he begins to find them suspicious, but thinks it unlikely they are both wolves.

Aganzir - fairly innocuous post. However some suspicion of me and also keeps Menel out of her 'guilty' list yet specifically mentions being unsure of him. Didn't like the way I talked about the cobbler. Out of nowhere states that Nerwen is a wolf. Ends up with Nog and Pitch as her suspicions and votes Pitch as she is more comfortable with that. Would be if she and Nog are wolf partners.

Missed out Nerwen, Shasta and sally I'm afraid, eyes are closing. Back in a few with thoughts and vote.

[Kath]

So Lommy voted for Agan and sally. I'm tempted to go the same way. I feel like she was on to something. I haven't looked at sally and she's only just around while I'm disappearing. Therefore:

++AGAN

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
All she says is that Pitch's vote for Nogrod made her uneasy, thus she votes for him. Her vote puts Pitch in the lead, but since G55 was an ordo as well, it doesn't matter much - except if she's a wolf, it might point at Nog being one as well.

DAY 2
After Nog and Nerwen reach the conclusion Zil may have found G55 a wolf, sally jumps on it by picking on G55's choice of words (a really savage blow) when she laments Zil's death. She disappears for hours again, and then says she might still want to keep her around for a bit because it's fun to watch her stew - but this is obviously not the case because in her next post she wonders why we haven't killed her already. I think sally was one of the strongest pushers for a G55 lynch - granted, she wasn't as loud as some of the others, but she was pretty consistent in her suspicion. I may take the moral highground because I was about the only one who ended up not voting for her, but especially in hindsight it's a bit hard to see what eventually made G55 so suspicious to deserve all but two of the votes.

Now we reach sally's first major contribution. She quotes Inzil's vote for G55 and suggests his phrasing (totality of circumstance) seems like a possible seer hint. She mentions several times the suspicious placement of her Day 1 vote - at least if G55 had been a wolf. This gives me the weird feeling that we're supposed to interpret it as following: If G55 is a wolf, sally is suspicious. If G55 is not a wolf, sally is not suspicious. Yeah I know it may not be that simple and an innocent could well have said it, but it would be very convenient for a wolf, and it would explain why sally stressed it so.
Sally grants that it wouldn't have made sense for Inzil to dream of G55 on night 1 but proceeds to say she doesn't suspect G55 because of a possible dream but because of her actions. She clearly started off by basing her suspicion on Inzil's opinions, though.
Then she agrees with Lommy who said I'm enjoying myself too much to be innocent. She (who has played with me countless times before) asks if I always refer to the cobbler as a she. This is of course highly subjective but I think she should have known better (at the very least after it was explained on the thread), and her reasoning looks therefore like grasping at straws. She cites G55 and me as possible recipients for her vote, and says she won't vote for Menel (for being amusing) or Nog (because he and G55 are not in cahoots).
In a later post, she calls for others to discuss me. She has no real points against me though (apart from a too happy to be good attitude), but she apparently wishes to bring me under the spotlight.
Right after that, she asks:

Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?

What exactly is this for? We don't find the cobbler until he's dead. We can't do anything about the cobbler. It's the first sentence that caught my attention. It basically says, "We want to find the cobbler!" while the second sentence works to cover the question's real nature. I think it's extremely creepy.

Later she votes for G55 (because I'm not an option) and says that cobbler or wolf, she's evil. I don't know at which point she came up with G55 being the cobbler, but what I noted is that she's awfully eager to get G55 lynched - no matter what, she has to die. And in my experience, it's usually wolves who show that kind of fervour when trying to get someone lynched. I remember several games of choosing a new main suspect each day and going strongly after them, one at a time, until we could secure the wolf victory. Sally's campaign against G55 reminds me of that.

DAY 3.
I may be biased by now, but this doesn't sit right with me:

Originally Posted by sally to Nog

If we lynch an innocent toDay, yeah, it's a pickle, but it's still not the doom you present it to be at the moment.
Unless of course you're just trying to destroy village morale, in which case, do feel free to continue your attempts, because it won't work on me.

Because lynching an innocent today is doom. It would only take one innocent to vote wrong tomorrow and we would've lost it.

And that's it. For Legate's information, my vote for sally yesterday wasn't retaliation - it was a reaction to a suspicion that made no sense and seemed both opportunistic and testing the ice for a possible cobbler reaction at the same time. It was a quick decision based on a gut feeling, but after an analysis, my logic supports my gut.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kath

Aganzir - fairly innocuous post. However some suspicion of me and also keeps Menel out of her 'guilty' list yet specifically mentions being unsure of him. Didn't like the way I talked about the cobbler. Out of nowhere states that Nerwen is a wolf.

Just in case it wasn't clear, my first post(s) weren't serious at all. I didn't really suspect you, and I said Nerwen was a wolf because she joked I'd do that after she defended me against something. That's quite a flimsy excuse for a vote.

[Nerwen]

Back and reading.