Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Gwath

There is a fourth option for cobblers: to confuse and mislead in any direction they can.

You can only mislead when you actually know the correct direction.

If you have no clue as to anyone's identity, how do you know that the person in line to be lynched isn't in fact the Seer? So why try to muddy things up when perhaps things are already going well for the WWs?

People always go on about Cobblers causing confusion, but I don't buy it. The fact is, we already don't know anything. How more confused can you possibly get? There is no need to add extra confusion, and there is no guarantee that attempting to cause confusion would even help their cause, so what's the point? It seems like wasted effort to me.

However, you are right that there is a fourth major thing the Cobblers can do to help the WWs. But it is something that if brought up would probably help the Cobblers more than the village, because I really think that this particular thing is likely something that hasn't occured to more than a couple of the Cobblers.

[Gwathagor]

I disagree. You can mislead by obstructing rational thought, by presenting other options, by decreasing the odds that the right choice will be made. As you said: the cobblers are playing the odds.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I disagree. You can mislead by obstructing rational thought, by presenting other options, by decreasing the odds that the right choice will be made. As you said: the cobblers are playing the odds.

Phantom says we can't get any more confused, so why would the Cobblers waste their time trying to confuse us? But I say that the longer we go on, the more information we have, so that the less confused we are. In my opinion, Cobblers will be easier to spot the longer we're down here, but by the same token, Cobblers will be much more dangerous the longer we're down here.

...If you'll excuse me, I need to find some water. All this stone is giving me a headache. Roanes aren't meant for extended periods underground.

*drags off his sealskin*

[the phantom]

Ah, so you're saying that the Cobblers might try to confuse us about things such as village rules and such?

Well yes, I suppose if a situation arises that they might do such a thing, but it seems rather risky to me, seeing as people who know better can catch them on it quite quickly. They would have to play it off as if they just didn't know the rules well. But then that would mean not stating their misinformation with too much conviction.

As for the rest of it-

by presenting other options

I see no harm in anyone presenting options. It would encourage opinions and debate.

by obstructing rational thought

That seems rather nebulous. How exactly do you do such a thing? How does one actually change the manner in which another individual processes information?

I think you and others are assigning far too many powers to the Cobblers. Their power lies in the manner of their deaths. If they die early or die at night, then the WWs likely lose. If they dodge death or die exclusively during the days, then we have our work cut out.

[Gwathagor]

I'm done arguing the point. You use your criteria, I'll use mine.

[Brinniel]

Okay, I'm here...finally.

First thoughts:

Nogrod is hurting my eyes with all those 1.2.1.1's or whatever..

I notice that the phantom has once again become the center of attention.

When it comes to who to lynch, of course wolves are our priority. We should do everything to seek the wolves out because lynching them wins us the game. But we also must remember that there are only two wolves...and while it is a big advantage to us, during these first Days it's going to be tricky to actually lynch one, especially with cobblers around. With so few wolves, we do have lee-way to lynch inaccurately. And since the cobblers are also our enemy, if we strongly suspect someone to be a cobbler, we should lynch them right away rather than save them for the hunter. Yeah we'd be lynching someone counted as a villager, but they are still an enemy and it's better to get a cobbler out of the way rather than risk lynching an innocent. And by doing so, we'd give the hunter a chance to seek another cobbler. After all, there are four of them.

Just because cobbler don't know the identity of the wolves, I wouldn't put them out of the picture. In my experience, I've seen the role of cobbler play out as a mixed bag. Sometimes the cobbler can end up hurting their allies more than helping them (though I actually haven't seen that too often). In other times, the cobbler can be the one who wins the game for the wolves. So yes, they can be dangerous.

One thing we need to watch out for is Day 1...or rather, toDay. So often, one player makes a post that looks suspicious and suddenly everyone starts voting them simply because they can't find any better suspects so early on. Wolves have always taken advantage of that, but cobblers can especially use that opportunity to bandwagon and lynch an innocent.

[Thinlómien]

Hello everybody. I was investigating penguins and their underwater flying, but now I'm here...

First off, I must agree with tp, Nerwen and Gwath (and others?) that the cobblers probably don't know each other. I think the quote says, rather clearly, that they know they have allies and how many of them there are, but not who they are exactly. Mr Nogrod looks quite cobblerish for not getting the point and also because of going unnecessarily deep to in-character and by making all those very confusing lists of his... I don't claim he doesn't make sense, for he mostly does, but something in the floody and badly arranged manner disturbs me. It looks very much like something he could do as a cobbler.

Another one who seems a little eyebrow-raising to me is Form... I mean, the guy is obviously a fraud for he says:

Originally Posted by the snowbird

Besides, I'm Dúnedain. Elvish languages are the only one I can read!

while we all know that the word "Dúnedain" is plural form and the singular would be "Dúnadan"... and that's definitely an Elvish word!

Anyway, I think we have no trouble. Two wolves are easy to find - or should be easy to find - and after that it doesn't matter that there's a horde of cobblers. By the way, I disagree with the phantom with their ability to cause chaos and confusion. They can very well do that. Present points that seem reasonable and make villagers think about them just to realise they don't make any sense. Make weird last minute votings. Write long nonsense posts to dull others' minds and to appear helpful while actually saying nothing. Stay silent for so long that they become enigmas. Those are just a few examples. I think we shouldn't underestimate their capacity. They can be very dangerous. But the good thing is that they're finished as soon as the wolves are. Also, if it should ever happen that the cobbler hunter has to come out (let's hope that won't happen though), s/he can provide us with a list of non-cobblers - if there have been any failed kills.

Originally Posted by Groin

Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then.

Well, I can agree about slips of tongue being a way to hunt wolves, but we shouldn't count on that because all wolves don't make slips and some people make wolvish slips even if they're innocent.

Originally Posted by Groin

Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!

...and beware of those who stay so silent that you can't form a picture of them. The Holy Old Debate!

Tp's way of advicing all sorts of gifted looks rather weird to me. Not that it's uncharacteristic of him, but it irritates me a little... he's obviously trying to gain some control over the village, once again.

It feels so good to be back in all this mess again. I think I did miss the game.


edit: xed with Brinn - Hi Brinn! *waves*

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Groin Redbeard

Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

Slightly ironic, don't you think?


Ok, well at least more people have spoken up. But it's day one, so anything could happen.

And look at the post-counts. I wonder who's ahead :

the phantom 16
Nogrod 6
Eönwë 5
Gwathagor 5
Macalaure 3
Formendacil 2
Nerwen 2
Durelin 2
Brinniel 1
Groin Redbeard 1
Thinlómien 1
Lalaith 1
Shastanis Althreduin 1
Rikae 1

edit: x-èd with Lommy

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Another one who seems a little eyebrow-raising to me is Form... I mean, the guy is obviously a fraud for he says: while we all know that the word "Dúnedain" is plural form and the singular would be "Dúnadan"... and that's definitely an Elvish word!

I was wondering when someone else would notice that. but wouldn't it be more correct to say "a Dúnadan" or if he's sticking with the plural he could have just added "of the" to get "I am of the Dúnadain".

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Tp's way of advicing all sorts of gifted looks rather weird to me. Not that it's uncharacteristic of him, but it irritates me a little... he's obviously trying to gain some control over the village, once again.

As usual

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I was wondering when someone else would notice that. but wouldn't it be more correct to say "a Dúnadan" or if he's sticking with the plural he could have just added "of the" to get "I am of the Dúnadain".

Well, yes, that occured to me too but it was funnier to phrase it that way... after all he claimed he knows Elvish, but he didn't say anything about knowing English...

I just don't know what was the point of posting the post count this early though... it strikes me as exactly the kind of useless information cobblers are interested in. On the other hand, it is something a bored ordo could do while trying to say something at least to keep the village awake...

And lastly, what's it with everybody considering this Day1 so important? Have I missed something? Of course day1s are important in a way as later investigation material but half of the village seems to regard this Day almost as something sacred and throwing around mystical comments that toDay will tell everything about this and that... weird. (Actually, rather funnily, strikes me as the sort of nonsense cobblers could say. Why am I seeing cobblers everywhere? Why don't I see wolves anywhere? That would be more useful...)

In fact, now that I got to it, I think pretty much everybody is seeing cobblers everywhere, not wolves. That is understandable (cobblers have been a big topic and it's much easier to spot cobblerish than wolvish behaviour this early) yet pretty disturbing...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Hi Brinn! *waves*

*waves back*

Originally Posted by Lommy

Tp's way of advicing all sorts of gifted looks rather weird to me. Not that it's uncharacteristic of him, but it irritates me a little... he's obviously trying to gain some control over the village, once again.

My thoughts exactly. And once again comes the temptation to disobey everything he says emerges...

Originally Posted by Groin

Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!

Originally Posted by Lommy

...and beware of those who stay so silent that you can't form a picture of them. The Holy Old Debate!

Noooo, don't say it! I wonder if it's actually possible to go a single WW game without that debate arising...

Originally Posted by Lommy

And lastly, what's it with everybody considering this Day1 so important?

Day 1's have their uses, though I'm not sure if they're that important. But I do think it's the easiest Day for wolves and cobbler to hide...

[Mithalwen]

Since I usually say this anyway can I just cut to the chase and say "Lets kill Nogrod"? I have only started skimming through and he is already doing my head in by appearing to use binary number.

[Mithalwen]

And other forms of number for which I have forgotten the names not being a Mathmagician ... and he seems to be talking cobblers *wonders if anyone else understands what will in another time and place be known as Cockney Rhyming Slang*.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Ah, cobblers.

I know a thousand different stories of comet crashes into Jupiters, but they all end differently. Some, like the famous Real Hope and The Quacking Cooking Implement went on to win the game, many others just rolled over and died, and a lot in between these two scenarios. We cannot really gauge how effective the confusion a cobbler sows--doesn't mean we'll discount it, but it shouldn't unduly concern us. An innocent is about as likely to confuse as a cobbler; how, then, can we differentiate that two? Motive? An innocent can wish a fellow innocent lynched, as much as a cobbler can. A cobbler can help someone he/she/it thinks wolvish survive, but what he/she/it thinks, really, is about as correct as any of us can come up with. Maybe more, depends on the person. Question is, who here knows who the cobblers are?

I agree with Eönwë when he said:

I say "Aim for a wolf and if you miss, you'll probably hit a cobbler."

and this is how I'll play this game. I mean, think about it: Aside from the identity of one other person, a wolf (during the DAY) is just as clueless as a cobbler or an innocent. So catching one is almost as easy (or not) as catching the other.

I usually work with votes, enedwaith, so . . . same diff.

Hm, very tempted to lynch Nogrod. His ramblings remind me too much of the story of an enlightened Elf who refused to write an essay on the Enlightenment.

Eönwë is being Eönwë-ish, as usual. Same for a phantom (he's being a phantom-ish, not Eönwë-ish[/b].)

Mum agrees with me about Nogrod, so yay!

The 'DAY 1 is utter rubbish' people are out in force. Hail, brothers!

End of story. There will be, of course, a sequel.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Oh, and I just thought of this: Gifteds, if anyone comes out and says he/she/it is so-and-so, but you know they're not, because you are, don't counter-declare. He/she/it may help lynch an innocent for one DAY, but at least we get the satisfaction of him/her/it being chewed the following NIGHT.

Of course, the impostor could very well be a wolf, and not a mere cobbler, which means a counter-declaration the following DAY could be a mess. So I guess it'd help if the cobbler assassin targets our impostor, too, that NIGHT.

Oh, Angamandi, just lynch me.

[Nerwen]

Alas, O factotum, I do not understand this arcane language. At least, not that part of it.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Tp's way of advicing all sorts of gifted looks rather weird to me. Not that it's uncharacteristic of him, but it irritates me a little... he's obviously trying to gain some control over the village, once again.

So it would seem:

Originally Posted by the phantom

I am trying to set up the way this village should be played, and then hope that I am able to play it better.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Noooo, don't say it! I wonder if it's actually possible to go a single WW game without that debate arising

No, it isn't. So let's get it over with.

Lynch the quiet ones!

No, lynch the loud ones!

The quiet ones!!

The loud ones!!

The quiet ones!!!

The loud ones!!!

The loud ones!!!!

The quiet ones!!!!!

(Continue until somebody is lynched.)


There.

As for the benefits of trying to lynch cobblers vs trying not to lynch them... I don't see how that helps at this stage of the game. We are trying to lynch wolves... so in the end we just have to go for someone who looks suspicious.

EDIT: X'd with Nilp (twice).

[Thinlómien]

Feanor of the Peredhil - hasn't posted anything yet
Shastanis Althreduin - hasn't really said much, hasn't given any impression
Formendacil - nothing alarming nor reassuring this far
Kitanna - hasn't posted yet
Eönwë - the only thing that occurs to me about him is that he doesn't look like a cobbler...
Nerwen - looks like normal Nerwen ergo I don't know
Kath - hasn't said anything yet
Nilpaurion Felagund - kind of makes sense, but doesn't really say much... purely based on gut-feeling is slightly wolvish but really, he could be anything
Durelin - no idea
Brinniel - has an innocentish manner for now
Gwathagor - has an innocentish manner, but I wouldn't be too sure
Nogrod - smells of cobbler
Lalaith - looks like normal Lalaith ergo could be anything
A Little Green - hasn't said anything yet - but will say something as soon as I've finished this post
the phantom - is advicing others, arguing and taking the lead... in a way that's fishy but he's always like that...
Groin Redbeard - not enough data
Mithalwen - no idea, except that seems rather vengeful...

[Thinlómien]

And I didn't mention this in my last post although I was supposed to... I'm now going, but I will be back before the deadline. (I will miss the last hour of toDay though as they've finally decided to show the second season of Rome on Finnish TV and I don't want to miss it...)

[A Little Green]

Hullo, my dear friends - I see there are many of us gathered in this dark and unholy place, far from Varda's stars (Buy a pocket-size Menelvagor, tax-free, and a teddy bear for the seventeen first purchasers! *wink wink*).

Originally Posted by the phantom

I am trying to set up the way this village should be played, and then hope that I am able to play it better.

I don't think it's any big news that I'm annoyed by the phantom's open aim to manipulate the village. Even if he was right and his way of playing this village was profitable, I'd still prefer it so that every player plays in the way s/he sees fit. I don't think it's anyone's duty or right or even possibility to choose how the village is to be played.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Two wolves are easy to find

I disagree - I think two wolves are as hard to find as five. Though we have less wolves to catch, we also have a bigger chance of lynching a non-wolf. A very cunning wolf can fool us just as neatly with one or four packmates.

Then there is still this proverb -

Originally Posted by Ëonwë

Aim for a wolf and if you miss, you'll probably hit a cobbler.

I disagree again. A wolf and a cobbler, though they work for the same goal, have entirely different methods of working because they have very different tools with which they can work. It doesn't go in the way that if a person who looks suspicious isn't a wolf, s/he is then most likely a cobbler. A cobbler doesn't necessarily look suspicious in the same way as a wolf does, because cobblers have less to hide.

I see I just come, disagree, and go. Menelvagors, anyone?

[A Little Green]

Wait - where exactly is everyone?

And one more note: I don't think the post count reveals much or indeed anything. One can post two posts per day and be much more substantial than someone who posts a horde of one-liners.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

And one more note: I don't think the post count reveals much or indeed anything. One can post two posts per day and be much more substantial than someone who posts a horde of one-liners.

I was just pointing out that the phantom (almost wrote the pantom there) had, at that point,, 10 more posts than the second higher poster, and that he in fact produced over a third of all posts (discounting mods) onn this thread. His voice is (or at least was then) larger than anyone else's. Statistically, every 3 posts, you would get one of his, so he can definately affect us. That was my point.

And, not to be rude, but this isn't the stock excchange, by the way. People here would like actual valuable things such as Sam's belt buckle which was stolen by wights.

And where are you people anyway?

[A Little Green]

Really, this is a bit too quiet.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Oh, and I just thought of this: Gifteds, if anyone comes out and says he/she/it is so-and-so, but you know they're not, because you are, don't counter-declare. He/she/it may help lynch an innocent for one DAY, but at least we get the satisfaction of him/her/it being chewed the following NIGHT.

Of course, the impostor could very well be a wolf, and not a mere cobbler, which means a counter-declaration the following DAY could be a mess. So I guess it'd help if the cobbler assassin targets our impostor, too, that NIGHT.

I fear I don't follow the logic. Could you clarify?

I had some point I would have liked to bring up but unfortunately forgot what it was.


EDIT: x-ed with Ëonwë - Hooray! Someone is here! Hello!! (Oh crap, my triple post ceased to be a triple post...)

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Ëonwë

And, not to be rude, but this isn't the stock excchange, by the way. People here would like actual valuable things such as Sam's belt buckle which was stolen by wights.

Honestly, man, belt buckles are so last se... umm... age. (Try our newest pocket-size supernova! *salesperson smile*)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I fear I don't follow the logic. Could you clarify? (Green)

Situation: Someone claims to be gifted.

Possibilities:

1. He/she/it is telling the truth.
2. He/she/it is lying, and is a cobbler.
3. He/she/it is lying, and is a wolf. (Less possible than Possibility B, due to scarcity of wolves.)

Best Response of Gifted:

1. Nothing.
2. Do not counterclaim, hope that wolves believe the 'gifted' and he/she/it is consumed that NIGHT.
3. Counterclaim immediately, and get a wolf's head.

*But how to differentiate between Possibility B and C? Nearly impossible, so play the numbers game (2:1 cobbler:wolf ratio + value of wolvish numbers to Evil Side) and do Response B.

A somewhat random plan of response, and there are many holes to be plugged, but I do hope it achieves its purpose.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Honestly, man, belt buckles are so last se... umm... age. (Try our newest pocket-size supernova! *salesperson smile*) (Greenie)

Do you happen to have the rare collector quark star? I heard from the people of Further Harad that the quark star is supposed to turn a cobbler into a banana split.

*wink wink at everyone*

[Durelin]

Nilp makes excellent points. The gifteds should not come out if there is a false reveal. As we saw last game, counter-reveals are rarely believed. In this game, though, the cobblers have more reason for and more to gain from a false reveal.

Of course, after talking about it this way, I wonder if a cobbler would risk it. Probably. They don't have much to lose.

I really am finding it hard to even toss out random suspicions atm. I'm always for lynching the phantom, though. I say we give Nogrod a little time.

Sudden thought: I bet Mith makes a great cobbler.

[the phantom]

*Phantom wakes up and is surprised to see that so little has happened*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I make a good cobbler. *pouts* Why pick on my mum, huh?

She's not your mother in this game.

Riiiiiight.

[Durelin]

Because to me you quite obviously make a good cobbler.

[the phantom]

Okay, here are my thoughts as of this moment.

Feanor of the Peredhil, Kitanna, Kath- Haven't shown up yet. Is this because they know good and well that Day 1 lynch candidates nearly always emerge from the villagers who've actually been around on Day 1?
Shastanis Althreduin- hasn't said much, but makes sense
Formendacil- one in character post, one post that says I'm a Cobbler or Seer
Eönwë- in character, a bit of support for me, down on Nog

(more people on the way, I'm going down the list....)

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Sudden thought: I bet Mith makes a great cobbler.

If you mean shoes probably not, if you mean one of those dishes with a scone topping well yes but not really my culinary style.

But in the context of Werewolf, who knows? Given that I can go a long time between picking werewolves I sometimes feel that I have been an unwitting cobbler in many of the games I have played. So while I suppose that should be a compliment, it would be a mistake to confuse haplessness with malice....

Nilp darling I love you too. *hugs*. But I can't remember playing a game with Durelin in which she hasn't suspected me. So it is quite normal for her to pick on me.

I need to read - got a little delayed and now distracted.

[the phantom]

Nerwen- seems honest thus far
Nilpaurion Felagund- entertaining and sensible
Durelin- a little like Nilp
Brinniel- puts off the innocent vibe
Gwathagor- we disagree, but I do not suspect him at all
Nogrod- he stumps me, nice in character stuff, and obviously spent some time with his points, most of which make perfect sense, but something about him seems off

(five more people to go...)

[Mithalwen]

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway? I know it doesn't get us a wolf (unless she is one) but we can't do any other harm?

[the phantom]

Lalaith- one post, but feels okay
A Little Green- I can't get a read on her
Thinlómien- her list makes me uncomfortable, don't know why
Groin Redbeard- not much to go on
Mithalwen- doesn't matter what she is, she should never be killed, she's too smart and charming and all that

[Thinlómien]

Funny, I did get Nilp's original point, but when he started elaborating on it, I got confused.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I don't think it's any big news that I'm annoyed by the phantom's open aim to manipulate the village. Even if he was right and his way of playing this village was profitable, I'd still prefer it so that every player plays in the way s/he sees fit. I don't think it's anyone's duty or right or even possibility to choose how the village is to be played.

Well, darling, we can always just ignore him. Let him say what he wants, we don't have to obey him. As long as he doesn't insist on anyone following his guidelines, I think we can cope with him.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I disagree - I think two wolves are as hard to find as five. Though we have less wolves to catch, we also have a bigger chance of lynching a non-wolf. A very cunning wolf can fool us just as neatly with one or four packmates.

Okay, they might not be easier to find per se, but there being just two of them makes the game easier for us. If there are just two wolves, they can't win by numbers ie it will take a long time until their number equals that of the innocent villagers, so we should have plenty of time to lynch innocents and cobblers before it gets too dangerous...

Originally Posted by Mith

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway? I know it doesn't get us a wolf (unless she is one) but we can't do any other harm?

...what? Why Kitanna? Because she's not talking? But Fea and Kath aren't talking either... Have I missed something, or what is it?


edit: xed with tp

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Mith

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway?

What, is she not going to be able to play or something? Is there modfire?

[Mithalwen]

Does noone read the admin thread....? IF in doubt read the instructions...

[the phantom]

To summarize my current leanings, I'm somewhat wary of-
Formendacil
Groin
people who haven't posted
people from Finland

I'm currently very trusting of-
Nilp
Gwath
Mith

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't think it's any big news that I'm annoyed by the phantom's open aim to manipulate the village.

Speaking for myself, I love being manipulated by the Phantom ... nobody does it better... makes me feel sad for the rest....

[the phantom]

Does noone read the admin thread....? IF in doubt read the instructions...

I read all the mod posts on this thread, and didn't see anything about it. The first post of the Admin thread doesn't have anything either. And I also skimmed the last page and didn't see anything from Kitanna about pulling out of the game.

That's as much as I'm willing to do right now. I'm trying to do work at the same time here, so cut me some slack.