Tol-In-Gauroth XXIV: Battle of the Band[Wagon]

[Diamond18]

I’m going to go through all the posts (hopefully, if I can swing it in the time I have, curse the board) and give my impressions of each player, in the order they are listed in Sleepy’s posts.

Glirdan

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...5&postcount=13

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...9&postcount=26

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...5&postcount=80

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...5&postcount=85

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...8&postcount=94

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=105

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=107

Glirdan is worrisome to me. The first day I did not find his hasty vote particularly strange as I’m know what it’s like to have to vote early with little to go on. His opening post is very par for the course as far as character play goes… lots of shock and exclamation over the mod’s death is vintage Glirdy.

However with the dawn of day 2 he really starts striking me as off. He attacks Folwren, starting by using what was clearly throwaway commenting on Sleepy’s death, something which never sits well with me. When something is obviously meant as in character or as a chatty preamble I honestly don’t understand why anyone would use it as a serious condemnation. Unless you were really trying to cast suspicion or suspected the player of taunting. At any rate, the rest of his case against Folwren has some merit, but since I tend to feel Folwren is as blindingly innocent as… snow that’s really bright… I find the way he goes after her to be somewhat unsettling. Plus, he seems to shy away from the notion of voting for her but ends up doing so on encouragement from Nogrod not to let others direct him. Which is odd.

I could see myself voting for him, but the one thing that holds me up is that I’ve played with Glirdan before and have known him to behave somewhat oddly and yet be innocent. So I don’t like to fall for the “he’s oh so lynchable” pitfall and kill an innocent merely for playing style. I shall have to evaluate the other candidates.

Macalaure

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...0&postcount=31

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...9&postcount=46

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...4&postcount=52

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...8&postcount=61

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...2&postcount=63

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...5&postcount=69

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...9&postcount=71

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...1&postcount=73

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...0&postcount=96

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=113

I had reservations about Mac’s early Day 1 posting (see my previous posts). The timing of his vote for Volo seems to speak well, but his wording still gives me pause, as he seems to reiterate a lot that he didn’t suspect Volo all that much. This strikes me as trying to put emphasis on the luckiness of him spotting a wolf Day 1, lest we think he knew Volo’s identity and was intentionally sacrificing him.

Diamond18

Doesn’t post much, posts nonsense when she does show up. I’d keep an eye out for that bad seed if I were you.

THE Ka

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...7&postcount=19

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...0&postcount=29

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...5&postcount=93

Bit at a loss about Ka. She voted Volo for reasons I don’t quite understand, and since she turned out to be right could be seen as having good instincts or being in the know. Her vote was cast at a particularly safe time, being the first to vote for Volo, so this could well be wolf-on-wolf tactics. On Day 2 she has so far made some statements speculating on how the wolves are behaving, which kind of doesn’t give me much of an idea about anything.

Lommy

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...3&postcount=32

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...1&postcount=36

Well I don’t have much to go on. I really have nothing to observe on except that I dislike not having anything to observe on. She did seem to overestimate my posting, saying

Diamond didn't start with cuddly in-character bantering? I'm not sure what to make of this either, but it's nice to see her starting serious discussion this early.

I’m not sure who’s posts she was reading but it wasn’t mine. I mean, I did start in character, with links! And then said nothing of great consequence beside yawning over the Day 1ishness of the Day so far. So. Weird. Also, she called me cuddly. Like Snuggles the Fabric Softener Teddy Bear? Them’s fighting words.

Yeah, so basically, a whole lot of nothing. Shady….

Celuien

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...9&postcount=14

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...6&postcount=21

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...3&postcount=24

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...0&postcount=34

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...1&postcount=40

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...2&postcount=88

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...4&postcount=92

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=102

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=104

Celuien feels pretty innocent to me at this time. Her posts have all been calm and reasonable. Maybe she gets her serenity from knowing who are wolves and who are not, but at this time I don’t feel suspicious enough to start speculating on that. Nothing factual really supports it. She cast a vote for Volo at a time when putting him in the lead on a day notorious for spread out votes, so unless she was trying to fenris wolf him, I look favorably on her voting record.

Eonwe

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...69&postcount=9

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...7&postcount=25

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...2&postcount=42

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...7&postcount=45

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...7&postcount=49

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...5&postcount=53

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...9&postcount=56

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...6&postcount=97

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=110

Day 1 is pretty much par for the Eonwe course as far as I know. If I recall correctly, he usually gets lynched just by annoying people with his random voting. Day 2 he speaks less, but gives a pretty well reasoned vote for Glirdan (as these things go). Right now I haven’t really got a feel on him either way, but I don’t think I’ve ever been able to get a feel on him in the past, so this isn’t surprising.

Nogrod

Augh. The idea of going through all Noggie’s posts just killed me a little. But since he has been very talkative I’ve already formed a feel for him, and I don’t suspect him at this point. His vote for Volo speaks well, unless it’s a fenrising, but I’ll worry about that later if I should have reason to. For now, I’m not even considering voting Noggie so I’ll skip re-reading all his posts.

Durelin

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...2&postcount=15

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...6&postcount=81

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...2&postcount=91

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...8&postcount=98

Durelin I feel fairly comfortable with at this time. Not sure why, as she hasn’t posted very much and her Day 1 post was kind of flaky. But I’ve seen Durelin play before as an innocent (heck, as a gifted) and this isn’t unusual and doesn’t mean she isn’t being helpful. In #98 she brings up a phrase of Mac’s that I also puzzled over – however I ended up just deciding that his grammar was off and am not sure whether anything more can be read into it. If it is a slip of a deeper kind, could be quite telling, but I don’t know, those kinds of phrase fudges can be innocently made in haste.

Boro

Boro is kind of the same story as Nogrod for me. If I had been able to start this earlier and not forced to cram it into 2 hours, I’d go over his posts but I’m starting to do this shorthand. At any rate, he voted for Mac whom I was also a bit suspicious of yesterday (still am) so nothing about that raises red flags.

Folwren

I’ll make this short: I’m pretty sure she’s innocent. The only wolf I can recall being histrionic was Valier once, otherwise this is just something wolves don’t do. Innocents do it and get lynched for it, but wolves, not so much. Or maybe I’m just feeling really emphatic, because I recognize a lot of her sentiments as ways I’ve played games in the past. Whatever. Not voting for her.

Rune

I’m still kind of clueless about Rune, which made me uncomfortable enough to vote for him Day 1. However, I think I have enough suspicions of others after Day 2 to vote for one of them.

Unfortunately, in concentrating on the living I’ve sort of run out of time to give a real good look at Volo’s behavior in relation to others. I have mainly his last post to go on.

Okay, I probably have some more to catch up on since I started working on this, so now to see who I’ve cross posted with.

(Sorry I didn't format the links nicely, I usually do, but it just takes forever. I didn't even take down the links for the last ones. I do so hate being rushed).

[Celuien]

There has been a half hour reprive on the deadline.

This is very frustrating. I don't have time to go back through the thread now because of the deadline and Downs being down for so long. Boro is still making me nervous, but I'll trust Folwren's judgment for now and let that pass. I think she's probably innocent.

Also frustrating is that I see Glirdy coming up as a chief lynching candidate. Please don't. I really, really think that he's not guilty.

The only votes are two for Glirdy, one for Folwren and one for Durelin. I believe, but don't know that Folwren is innocent. I'm sure that Glirdy is. And I don't know about Durelin, but think she's innocent.

I want to save Glirdy. What can I do?

[Diamond18]

I think I'm going to vote for Mac. I'm not going to commit till closer to the actual cut off time, though.

[Diamond18]

I don't want to vote for Folwren, Durelin, or Glirdan, but of those three would vote Glirdan. As of right now it wouldn't matter, though. So I'd still vote Mac.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

I think I'm going to vote for Mac. I'm not going to commit till closer to the actual cut off time, though.

Well, I'll go where I have to, though I'm not sure about Mac. I am certain about Glirdan, and I'd rather save someone I'm fairly certain is innocent.

[Durelin]

Alright, I'm going with my original suspicion. Though now that he's voted for me, I'm a little less suspicious... At least, I don't think it wise for a wolf to actually vote for his accuser. Glirdan's being odd, and I see he already has...two votes? Well, as I recall that's rather normal Glirdan. But my memory fails me quite a lot...

At any rate, I don't feel I've seen enough yet to vote for him, particularly since he's already got a couple.

Hrmm.

Eh, it has to be... Two minutes left?

This might help you two decide, Di and Cel.

++Mac

[Diamond18]

++Mac

[Celuien]

Thank you, Durelin.

++MAC

I hope he's a wolf. I have my doubts. But at least Glirdy is safe.

[Boromir88]

This was my post before, but due to the technical difficulties it didn't come out. I'll try to get everything down before, but this will be rushed to get in time.

Thinlomien, due to problems with computer access already, put that with the technical difficulties recently. I'm willing to let Lommy go for today, but don't expect this grace from me the next day.

Celuien. I wouldn't necessarily call it a spat we had, that seems like a rather hateful connotation. I suspected you, you defended yourself, that's business, it's how it works. I'll be watching you more closely tomorrow, but for today you have cooled a little bit of suspicion.

I felt like something wasn't right with Mac yesterday and I bought his explanation as far as he had never been in that Day 1 situation before. Nogrod did point out a good argument, but I happen to disagree. I did also wonder about this comment, which seemed strange:

First, I was the one who suggested that the remaining people voted Volo. Just because I happen to be the second of the actual voters doesn't make it a cover.

I was wondering about this, I'm beginning to think though that Mac is an innocent. He makes a comment that I honestly don't think a wolf would make:

Out of the ones who have two votes, I don't like to vote for me and I don't like to vote for Folwren. This leaves me again with Volo, whom I could vote for though with a bad conscience and a bad feeling

Nogrod bolds that last part, which I guess would mean he's emphasizing it. The thing is I've seen this saying all too many times during my long history in werewolf, and there's only two situations I've seen.

1. It's an innocent who is worried about lynching another innocent. Which is understandable, and has happened many many times. If you don't know the identity of the person you voted for, you'll feel bad if that person is innocent, or even worse a gifted. This is a natural feeling of an innocent player who's not sure about his votee's identity.

2. It's a wolf to use an excuse to get away from suspicion of voting for an innocent. The wolves of course know who's an innocent, and they're goal is obviously to get innocents lynched. In order to stay away from suspicion, they'll put out this as an excuse to look innocent and they were misled.

I've never seen that comment used by a wolf to vote for another wolf partner. Becuase, the wolves also know their partners, and if they are going to contribute to a partner's death they want to appear strong and make a convincing argument. So people will say...'Look this person was a very influential factor in the death of a wolf, he/she is probably not one then...' I've never seen a wolf act weak/unsure when they cast a vote for another wolf partner. So, for me this right now speak to me that Mac is innocent.

Which leaves me with Glirdan. Di says he is an aggressive player, and the short records I have of Glirdan (1 game, 1 day) this is true. It could just be though that he's using that aggressive behavior, a normal Glirdan personality, to disguise his true aggressive self.

That means.

++Glirdan

(I'm already going to edit this because I know I'm probably mass cross-posting).

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I did not say anything but boromir made a bit nervouse already yesterday, the reason for me not saying anything is because I wanted to observe him first.

I cannot go show the evidence due to conection problems and lack of time.

He in his agreeing with me, he kind of shifted the focus from him to me, I might be overanalysing, but it could be a way of securing him self if people found his arguments suspiciouse. .


there is more, but it will have to wait.

++Boromir

sorry for all

[Celuien]

Arrgh. I feel like I'm yelling at the walls.

[the guy who be short]

Really this time.

Sleepy will come and write up a death post later.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Alright. Glirdan and Mac are both tied at three votes.

Mac is an innocent.
Glirdan is the hunter.
Glirdan takes Folwren (another innocent) with him.

I'm busy at present but I shall have their deaths up soon.

[Sleepy Ranger]

It was time for death. Glirdan and Macalaure were both lined up and the ones who would live to see tomorrow watched them, wondering how to end their lives. Whilst they thought Folwren stepped up and said, "While you think I shall sing a song which I feel fits this moment." No sooner had she said that that the phantom band began to play. Caught by surprise Folwren nearly fell over but she managed to stay on her feet and began to perform.

You've cried wolf to often
And now there is no place to hide
And you've made your own coffin
By keeping all your fears inside of your heart

Don't wait 'till tomorrow
'Cause what if tomorrow doesn't come
You'll wait until it's just too late
And thing's'll be fallin' in on you.

Look out they're falling.
Look out they're falling near you.
Look out they're falling. . .

Before she could finish however Glirdan smacked his guitar against Folwren's skull. She dropped flat, face first onto the ground. Glirdan did not let up though, he struck his guitar against her head over and over. It had broken as had her skull. Glirdan struck so fast that nobody had any time to react even Folwren could barely complete a scream. She passed out as blood stained her face and trickled down her back, forming a pool around her.

Glirdan stood over her breathing heavily. Nothing happened. She just lay there motionless. She did not transform. She was just dead. "I... I was wrong..." said Glirdan. Glirdan the hunter. He raised his hands trying to explain the situation to the rest but when he opened his mouth it was not words that escaped but a scream, a rather disgruntled Thinlomien had thrown a large rock at him.

It struck him in his stomach and he doubled over as Nogrod pierced his eyes with a loose guitar string. Glirdan, now blinded, shrieked and flailed around aimlessly. Boromir88 shoved him away from the crowd and straight into the fatal magical barrier that was meant to keep them in. Glirdan would have been wide eyed had Nogrod left him with any. He did not pop. He shrieked.

Glirdan was being streched. This time there was a pop as his left arm unattached itself from his body, followed by his right arm. Next to go were his legs. Glirdan then dropped to the ground, a bloody mess. The survivors turned around sickened by what they had just seen and as they did they saw Macalaure.

They had nearly forgotten about him as he stood there silently. They looked at one another. They more or less all agreed there had been too much blood spilled but Macalaure would have to go. He had been voted to go after all. "Please, my friends. I know you wish to kill me but I request you let me play one last melody on my harp." Said Macalaure calmly. "Do not listen to him! He is a wolf!" came a cry from the crowd.

"Silence!" Said Celuien commandingly and snatched up a stray violin. She pulled out a string and pricked her finger. "Will do." She said softly and stood near Macalaure. "You may begin but one false move and you're dead." She had the string aimed at his neck and there was not so much as a bead of sweat on her skin.

Macalaure played calmly, touching the hearts of nearly all who were there. "Oh enough of this. Just do away with him already." came Durelin's agitated voice. "Will you shut up and let us enjoy the music?" Said The Ka in response. "Both of you. Silence." Cried Celuien waving her arms.

Unfortunately she thrust her arm a bit too far and stabbed Macalaure through his neck. "Oh my..." she said as she drew it out. "Sorry." And with that she inserted it through his heart and lay it to rest. This day had not gone well. Three deaths, no wolves and there was still the night to come. As they retreated to the Tavern they hoped that the morning would bring better news.

***

Night 2

Dead
Sleepy Cowell (Mod) - Beheaded and mounted on a wall.
Volo (Wolf) [Kai Hansen] - Popped by the magical barrier he helped set up.
Meneltarmacil (Innocent) [Elvis Presley] - Suffocated and disected.
Glirdan (Hunter) [Hedley] - Blinded and had his limbs popped off.
Macalaure (Innocent) [Maglor] - Stabbed with a sharpened violin string.
Folwren (Innocent) [2nd Chapter of Acts] - Flogged with a guitar.

Alive
Diamond18
THE Ka
Thinlomien
Celuien
Eonwe
Nogrod
Durelin
Boromir88
Rune

[Sleepy Ranger]

Only eight of the nine that had gone to sleep awoke that day. They assembled in the lounge but there was no dead body there. No trace of death what so ever. They took a head count but that only resulted in eight. One was missing. "Did you count yourself?" asked Celuien, sounding like a school teacher. "Here, let me... one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight..." One was missing.

"Where is my guitar?" Asked Nogrod all of a sudden. This led to a bit of a murmur. It turned out everyone's instruments had vanished. When the search indoors proved fruitless they head outside and there, at the shell, was some sort of weird disfigured rack holding all their instruments. They slowly approached it and when they did arrive they wished they had not. It was Diamond18.

She had been twisted, broken, snapped and all other such delightful words which had resulted in her becoming their new instrument holder. "I don't think I want to play anymore..." muttered Thinlomien softly. There was a note near by.

Friends,
Time is scarce. Things have tourned sour. Diamond18 was your seer but do not despair there are things you do not see, things you do not know. Perhaps in the end this will work in your favor. I must be quick for I fear if I am found out there shall be nothing preventing the wolves from picking you all off. Your numbers have dwindled greatly.

I wish you luck!
The Phantom of the Battle-O-Bands

Day 3

Dead
Sleepy Cowell (Mod) - Beheaded and mounted on a wall.
Volo (Wolf) [Kai Hansen] - Popped by the magical barrier he helped set up.
Meneltarmacil (Innocent) [Elvis Presley] - Suffocated and disected.
Glirdan (Hunter) [Hedley] - Blinded and had his limbs popped off.
Macalaure (Innocent) [Maglor] - Stabbed with a sharpened violin string.
Folwren (Innocent) [2nd Chapter of Acts] - Flogged with a guitar.
Diamond18 (Seer) [Nickel Creek] - Disfigured into an attractive instrument stand.

Alive
THE Ka
Thinlomien
Celuien
Eonwe
Nogrod
Durelin
Boromir88
Rune

Day 3 has now started. Deadline is noon EST tomorrow.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I did think I had spotted the seer, but it was not Di. . . I guess this has been symptomatic for how I have played in this game.

I shall return within 20 min to explain my rather confused vote yesterday and then say nothing for 6 hours.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

My Reason For Voting As I Did:

Originally Posted by Boromir

Perhaps it was a bit confusing, but Rune put my words better than myself...odd, huh?

Let me give you this poker analogy, you don't want your opponent to know your plan, or how you are playing. Beacuse, if they do you are too easy to predict and the other players and they will make you pay for it. I find Werewolf to be the same, I don't want the wolves knowing my mind, so I won't say what I find to be wolvish. Now, if something does look wolvish to me, I'm going to jump out and say so, but I won't discuss what I'm looking for in order to find wolves.

I agree with Rune, if we all collaborate and set out what we think wolves would do, then they will make us pay for it. It will make our moves too predictable.

I was really flattered and am really flattered about Boromir saying this(I am not used to compliments), but something about it made me uncomftable. At one hand he just confirm what he has already said, but the last paragraph moves focus from him to me. . .could this be away for him make him self more secure incase people found this view on thing wolfish?

Originally Posted by Boromir

I was expecting more of Rune today, as he said he would, but didn't see it. I fully understand though, that unexpected things come up, we all get busy dealing with our fan-mail and what not...I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt today.

He expected more of me, because a jokingly post about me naming the wolves on Day 1. Normally I don’t pay heed to comments like these, but after getting the feeling he was building up a case against me. . .

Not a case as such, but making small comments where he does not directly accuse me of anything, but if suspicion was cast upon me, he could with advantage use this to distance him self from me with or to cast further suspicion.

He then votes for Mac, witch put an innocent level with a wolf. Granted I voted for Mac too and for the exact same reason. It still needs to be mentioned though when looking on the large-whole.

Granted I was shooting sparrows with cannons, but it was something that caught my eye and Boromir is cunning. When you add Nogrod’s case against him, well then it seemed like the best case I could make. It has to be said that because of yesterdays breakdown, I could not look through Boromir’s posts until after the deadline.



I hope that this clarify my confused vote yesterday, I hope that today will be the day when I become an asset to this game rather than utter rubbish.

[Nogrod]

This is just unfair! Yes, we made a good kill in the end of Day1, but I mean three innocents dead in a Day when only half of the people were able to vote (or something, haven't checked the actual numbers) including the hunter! And now Di, the Seer!

I don't know what Glirdy had in mind when picking Folwren... I just can't get it. And had the Downs worked yesterDay someone could have broken the tie last night and leave us with only one dead... But that's past and can not be reverted anyhow.

So I'm going to look through what Di said, but am a little confused about the prospect of talking openly to each other about what we find from her posts. I mean that there are at most two innocents she knew (clearly she had no wolves spotted) and having an open consensus over the innocent personalities will most probably be their downfall, an open death sentence executed by Night... Maybe we all should take our own tour on Di's posts and hold our tongues, only to come forwards if someone is actually trying to kill the possible innocents? I must see to Di's posting first before setting my mind on this.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

I'll only speculate about the obvious or about which looks like obvious.

It seems Di had no dream of a wolf as she voted for two innocents and her main suspects - as far as we know - have turned out innocents.

It seems pretty clear to me that of the yet living Diamond hadn't a dream on:
The Ka
Lommy
Eonwe
Rune

So that leaves as possible dreamt of innocents:
Celuien
Nogrod
Durelin
Boromir

The problem is, that from that lower list only two can be known innocents to Di, most probably only one as I'm afraid that Folwren was the other dreamee of hers... But we can be quite certain that her other dream was not Volo, Menel, Glirdy or Macalaure either, so there should be at least one innocent in the lower list. Not much but something.

Surely there are degrees of possibility in there and we should really check them out everyone. I have quite a strong opinion about the one dreamee (the other being Folwren?) in that list, but will not specualte about it yet. Let's not dress the table too ready for the wolves.

[Boromir88]

At one hand he just confirm what he has already said, but the last paragraph moves focus from him to me. . .could this be away for him make him self more secure incase people found this view on thing wolfish?~Rune

If I agree with you I'll say I agree with you. If I disagree with you I'll say I disagree with you. I'm straight forward and blunt, there's no hidden messages, nor clues, nor secret evil intentions throughout any of my posts. I say what I mean.

He expected more of me, because a jokingly post about me naming the wolves on Day 1.

Actually no I expected more of you because you said you would until your RL interview got in the way, which I think is understandable.

Not a case as such, but making small comments where he does not directly accuse me of anything, but if suspicion was cast upon me, he could with advantage use this to distance him self from me with or to cast further suspicion.

Again there's no hidden agenda in my posts, I say it like it is, and you can take it for face value. The most potentially dangerous people to the wolves can be the 'talkers' like Nogrod and myself. I say potentially dangerous, because if we're wrong in our suspicions than good for the wolves, if not though we can be a big thorn in their sides. I get the feeling that what we have going on here is the wolves have pinned us against eachother here. I've had no reason to suspect you, I found what you said to be quite reasonable. I just expected to hear more from you because you said there would be and I didn't see it (because of several different reasons). I think what the wolves have done is cleverly pinned us against eachother so we spin in circles over and over. While they're in the background watching the people who could be potential problems argue with eachother and lynch eachother. If that makes any sort of sense at all, I'm rather wordy at times, when I need not be.

I don't have the time right now to comment on why I think what I said above is what we have going on in this village, but I will get to that more when I return in a few hours.

I hope that this clarify my confused vote yesterday, I hope that today will be the day when I become an asset to this game rather than utter rubbish.

You're no closer today than you were yesterday.

This is just unfair!

Yah, yesterday was just a down right awful day in many many ways. That's life, time to move on, forget about it and let's turn this thing around.

[THE Ka]

Sorry for being gone so much yesterday, RL issues happen, and unfortunately it was one that I am still dealing with. One of my relatives passed away recently, and I only learned of this a bit ago, so, I've been busy dealing with this. Sorry again.

Gah, so much has happened... Okay, I am going to have to catch up with the rest of you, if I am going to have anything worthy to say. I guess I should start by answering a few questions, even if they are a bit repetitive and utterly worthless here.

” It looks like a deep insight to the wolf-mind. I mean not the usual "yes I can imagine how they thought" but actually how could you deduce the things you've said, the internal conflicts or bad co-operation, if not having the experience of being one?”

It’s not much deep insight, more of me mistaking I had enough time to play ww in my last game. I had to kill myself off because of a thesis paper, plain and simple, and my fellow wolves in that game were a bit concerned how they would do. So, because they understood that I was dealing with RL issues, they devised a plan along side setting myself up, for me to take a dive, so I could go attend to my needs outside of the game. Fortunately it worked out, and I left as the first lynching, with no ties as to who my fellow wolves were, only the fact that I wrote as suspiciously as I could, setting myself up for votes, ect. Afterwards, when I was able to watch on my own free time after writing my paper, how the game was developing (like watching a play, I might say, to see how everything was going) I wished to see how the plan that was set up was working. I would say, it passed with a 70% efficiency, due to reasons of the two remaining wolves being in time complications, thus one of them was caught, but it did take awhile at first to narrow the choices down for the players. Afterwards, it was quite easier for the players to find the last wolf. Essentially, the important element for the wolves was the fact that it was: The volunteering wolf was lynched on the first day, because they acted ‘suspicious’, thus leaving most of the other players on other days without much plausible evidence to use as a reference, and two, allowed the wolves to have a cover and appear to be thinking the same way as everyone one else (my fellow wolves in that game voted for me, ect).
Now, I highly doubt Volo was in a similar situation as this, but I will admit it is close in circumstances to how my fellow wolves acted in the game I have mentioned.
In all meaning, I am only being resourceful, because no one likes to be a fool in ww too many times, and because it is helpful to learn from the past.
Also, it would be utterly stupid to have any of the two wolves remaining to set themselves up, because this plan can really only work on the first or second days with one wolf. Any other days with more than one, and you’ve pretty much ruined the sport of actually playing at all in a game for everyone by doing this.

I will have to continue reading posts from yesterday and today to catch up with everyone, so, I am sorry this is such a short reply. I hope to have more to understand soon.

[Nogrod]

I've been asking myself the same question over and over again and somehow can't make it fit. Why did they kill Diamond? Did they have a hunch that she was the Seer or were they just picking her in random and getting lucky?

The problem in the last scenario is, that as a couple of my forefathers were lycantrophes, I know from their tales that getting done with those innocents who seem to have a hung of things or otherwise seem frightening is a major priority. Well, my forefathers were ethical enough to argue against the other wolves to let those "vocal players" live for the sport and balance of it, but the general feeling with my forefathers mates were that "the better player, the earlier kill". So we either have wolves who:

- play with cunning intelligence added with high moral standards (my lorebooks could make a separation of players here)
- were thinking Di actually hit a nail somewhere and decided to make sure of it before she could do more damage (my reasoning could make a separation of players here)
- are unsecure and try to make as secure kill as they can and do not take risks with the obvious ranger picks not to lose a kill (my hunch & lorebooks combined could make a separation of players here)

The problem surely is, that the lists based on these three cases would be very different indeed.

So if for instance myself, Boro, Rune, Celuien et.al. are all innocents and still alive, why didn't the wolves kill one of us? Was there something in Di that stood up for them as an alarm sign or were they just plain unsure about whom the ranger would pick and made a (lucky) trial of someone else? Or is someone or someones taking the gambit here and going for the less suspectible ones during the Nights just to hang around in the shade of other talkatives?

I'll come back with some more specific thoughts later as its getting late (RL) here...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Boromir there is no need to get angry or defencive. . .I admited I had almost no case, but I thought that you guys would like an explanation to why I voted for you!

Maybe it is better if I say it simple: something you said made me uneasy about you, Nogrod said somethings that enhanced this. I had no better alternative, ergo I voted you.

Now if you will excuse me, I have to go look on previouse post to see if I can build up a real case this time.

[Celuien]

All I can say about yesterday is arrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhhhh.

Voting record, with known innocents italicized:

1. Glirdan -> Folwren
2. Eonwe --> Glirdan
3. Macalaure --> Durelin
4. Folwren --> Glirdan
5. Durelin --> Mac
6. Diamond --> Mac
7. Celuien --> Mac
8. Boromir --> Glirdan
9. Rune --> Boromir

Yesterday's voting unknowns were Eonwe, Durelin, Boro, Rune, and me.
Non-voters were Ka, Nogrod and Lommy.

Just statistically speaking, I'd be surprised if no wolf voted even with all the problems the site was experiencing. Which might mean that a wolf might be found among Eonwe, Durelin, Boro, Rune, or me.

I feel pretty comfortable with Durelin's innocence.

Actually, the vote that makes me most uneasy from yesterday is Rune's for Boromir. When it was made, it was a throwaway that could have been used to break the disasterous tie between Mac and Glirdan. Yes, I know that Boro caused the tie, but looking at the times, it was a crosspost with the Mac votes. Glirdan, unfortunately, did make himself (as usual) suspicious enough to be lynched. I just have to wonder if any wolf would take such an exposed position as to fail to break a tie. It might have been a crosspost, but maybe not.

I agree with Nogrod's list of non-dreamt-of villagers based on Diamond's post here.

As for the list of possible list of people who were dreamt of, I don't think that I was one of them.

[THE Ka]

Was there something in Di that stood up for them as an alarm sign or were they just plain unsure about whom the ranger would pick and made a (lucky) trial of someone else?

Going back and reading up on what has happened since I've been gone, this is a good point.

The problem surely is, that the lists based on these three cases would be very different indeed.

Yes they would, but at least you’ve managed to break it down into possibilities, which will help figure out the reasoning (or lack thereof) for the wolves going after Diamond. It doesn’t seem like this is going to be in any ways an easy thing to figure out, and it seems like everyone is a bit lacking in free time, like myself.

If I’ve read up correctly, there is probably only one other person (besides Folwren, possibly) that diamond has dreamt about (or got to so far, until she was killed, and her dreaming stopped), that no one seems to know who they are yet.

I don’t think it was a person in question that she dreamt about, but possibly someone she was going to dream about, that might have had the wolves rid of her. Though, it doesn’t seem likely they could have known, unless they were keeping an eye on the pattern of votes, or activities of members, and took a really guess and with diamond’s posting attitude, and made for a kill.

Also, Folwren’s battle with being thought of as a wolf could have been another lucky diversion for wolves to hide in a bandwagon of votes, and possibly try to sway voting opinion away from more suspicious activities.
It just seemed a bit fishy how long that lasted, though, it was the second day, and we still didn’t have much to go on.

I don't know what Glirdy had in mind when picking Folwren... I just can't get it.

Yeah, I don’t understand that either… Either something random of Glirdan, or something that turned out very helpful, though sad. After this we really learned that Folwren was innocent, which cleared away any left over bandwagoning suspicions.

It seems like maybe our wolves are not playing entirely by expectations, but are being a bit more active instead of hiding, or making stealthy plans. I don’t know how to entirely explain it, but it this game just seems different from past ones I’ve played (however few), and I keep getting this nudge that the wolves are being more than what they are expected as, and doing some very crafty blending, and sly talking. Maybe being obvious or quite un-wolfish is a new tactic. It just seems plausible in this game right now.

I still have some catching up to do from being away yesterday, so, I’ll try to be back.

[Durelin]

Dang, that's not good...

Personally, I think Di was just a lucky catch for the wolves, and an unlucky catch for us innocents.

I see I was quite wrong on Mac...how shocking.

Hmm…let’s look at Di’s posts real quick…

Folwren, Durelin, or Glirdan, but of those three would vote Glirdan

Perhaps she dreamed of Folwren, and maybe myself? Well, that doesn’t help much, considering, and it certainly doesn’t help me at all…

Celuien feels pretty innocent to me at this time. Her posts have all been calm and reasonable. Maybe she gets her serenity from knowing who are wolves and who are not, but at this time I don’t feel suspicious enough to start speculating on that.

…

Day 1 is pretty much par for the Eonwe course as far as I know. If I recall correctly, he usually gets lynched just by annoying people with his random voting. Day 2 he speaks less, but gives a pretty well reasoned vote for Glirdan (as these things go). Right now I haven’t really got a feel on him either way, but I don’t think I’ve ever been able to get a feel on him in the past, so this isn’t surprising.

…

Augh. The idea of going through all Noggie’s posts just killed me a little. But since he has been very talkative I’ve already formed a feel for him, and I don’t suspect him at this point. His vote for Volo speaks well, unless it’s a fenrising, but I’ll worry about that later if I should have reason to. For now, I’m not even considering voting Noggie so I’ll skip re-reading all his posts.

…

I’m still kind of clueless about Rune, which made me uncomfortable enough to vote for him Day 1. However, I think I have enough suspicions of others after Day 2 to vote for one of them.

Okay, so there’s more of that, I know. Unfortunately I don’t have an abundance of time. But, I think we can say that Di was most suspicious of Mac, Glirdan, and Lommy yesterDay, followed by THE Ka and Rune. Of those, we know now that Mac and Glirdan were innocent. So that leaves us with:

Lommy
Rune
THE Ka

Lommy we just don’t see much of, but I’m starting to feel prepared to lynch her anyway. Rune has been very much like his forefather that I’m used to, who was actually a distant canine relative…I’ll have to see about him, though.

I feel basically the same as Di did about Boro and Nogrod, though I’m a little more suspicious of Boro.

Hmm…Celuien’s talk of wanting to save Glirdan is interesting…it is possible that she set herself up for this one. But, a wolf wouldn’t have bothered with such an approach, I imagine, if they only knew that Glirdan was an innocent, and I cannot see how the wolves would have suspected Glirdan to be a Hunter.

I feel the wolves were as blind as us innocents, and were just as ‘lucky’ as we were to catch a wolf on Day 1 to catch the Hunter and the Seer in one day and a Night (though I’d say us innocents’ bad luck played a part in that…).

Now, though…well, the wolves are probably feeling pretty dandy.

If I had to vote now, it would be for one of these candidates (listed loosely in order of suspicion, though it is very difficult to narrow things down right now): Lommy, Rune, and Celuien…

It’s rather quiet today… I will be able to return a little over an hour before Nightfall, but will have only a short time to decide and vote… I do hope there will be more to go on then, even if I will not have too much time to look over it.

Edit: Cross-posted with THE Ka and Celuien!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Actually, the vote that makes me most uneasy from yesterday is Rune's for Boromir. When it was made, it was a throwaway that could have been used to break the disasterous tie between Mac and Glirdan. Yes, I know that Boro caused the tie, but looking at the times, it was a crosspost with the Mac votes. Glirdan, unfortunately, did make himself (as usual) suspicious enough to be lynched. I just have to wonder if any wolf would take such an exposed position as to fail to break a tie. It might have been a crosspost, but maybe not.

It most sertainly was a cross post! My vote was there 5 minutes after the others, that could be enough for me to have seen the other votes, but I was re-frasing and trying to figure out who to vote for based on my memories so it took me a bit more than 4 minutes tow write that.

I am curiouse about one thing. . .How come you were so sertain of Glirdan's inoccens? I knew that he acted pretty much the same has he normaly does, but I still was not sure. You state quite clearly that you are certain that he is not innocent. There must have been a specific reason.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I am curiouse about one thing. . .How come you were so sertain of Glirdan's inoccens? I knew that he acted pretty much the same has he normaly does, but I still was not sure. You state quite clearly that you are certain that he is not innocent. There must have been a specific reason.

Well, it could have been past experience with Glirdan. Whenever I suspected him, he always turned out to be an innocent. And he acted the same way as he did then.

Some more math. We have eight villagers remaining. Two are wolves, one is the Ranger and one is the mytho, meaning that 50% of the village is not ordinary. My question is if anyone thinks revelations would be helpful at this point.

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Some more math. We have eight villagers remaining. Two are wolves, one is the Ranger and one is the mytho, meaning that 50% of the village is not ordinary. My question is if anyone thinks revelations would be helpful at this point.

NO! I don't think we have enough to get much of a benifit right now. I'd say, cross your fingers, and hope you get thorugh this time, until the wolves have killed off enough to make the ratios a bit more pleasing. But obviously, its your choise.

At a bit of a loss right now, I'll focus on Durelin's list of Lommy, Ka,and Rune.

[Boromir88]

Boromir there is no need to get angry or defencive~Rune

There was no anger in my post, or at least none intended. It was defensive though, but that's how I am when I get suspected.

Some more math. We have eight villagers remaining. Two are wolves, one is the Ranger and one is the mytho, meaning that 50% of the village is not ordinary. My question is if anyone thinks revelations would be helpful at this point.~Celuien

There is also the possibility that the Mytho is another ordinary innocent.

I like Durelin's reasoning, though I still don't find Rune to be a wolf. I think he's just being led in the wrong direction. As I have a feeling that the wolves are sitting back and letting us go after eachother. Which would be a smart thing to do for them, I would think. They are keeping those who could be a problem for them occupied by us going after eachother and just lynching eachother off. Instead of killing us at night. Because why would the wolves kill the talkers if they are completely wrong with their suspicions?

I think right now we are approaching this the wrong way. The wolves will keep around the talkers as they know they can be influential and sway the vote, and will keep us talkers around as long as we aren't big thorns in their side. So, that means I'm going to be taking close looks at

The Ka (who seems more active today like she's anxious to keep the people who are talking against eachother and come under scrutiny) View this post.

Eonwe, who's being like Eonwe, the quietness and randomness is typical. Which gets me worried.

Lommy, like I said yesterday I was willing to give her a little benefit because of the advanced warning ahead of time about not having a great amount of computer access...but that's not going to continue to fly especially since I really don't find Nogrod, Celuien, or Rune to be that suspicious as of right now.

After thinking a little bit, I realized there really wasn't all that reason to suspect Celuien. I think I was just grasping at some straws and trying to make a connection between Menel's suspicions of her and then Menel's death. What she's said today I agree with about the mess of voting that ended yesterday.

I don't think I was dreamed of either, nor do I think Celuien or Nogrod was dreamed of. She all seemed rather unsure about us. She had no suspicions of us at the time, but there's a note of uncertainty. Durelin is really the one she comes out best to defend:

Durelin I feel fairly comfortable with at this time. Not sure why, as she hasn’t posted very much and her Day 1 post was kind of flaky. But I’ve seen Durelin play before as an innocent (heck, as a gifted) and this isn’t unusual and doesn’t mean she isn’t being helpful. In #98 she brings up a phrase of Mac’s that I also puzzled over – however I ended up just deciding that his grammar was off and am not sure whether anything more can be read into it. If it is a slip of a deeper kind, could be quite telling, but I don’t know, those kinds of phrase fudges can be innocently made in haste.

Though I guess there is a little bit of uncertainty in this post...the 'I just don't know.' It just sounds like Diamond has defended Durelin more than the rest. She felt 'comfortable with Durelin at this time,' explaining her post 98 as likely just grammar mistakes. There always has to be a bit of uncertainty with a Seer if they want to lay low. It just looks here that she has defended Durelin more than anyone else in Nogrod's list, which looks right to me. Also, with what Durelin's reasoning in her last post, I don't see a reason to suspect her at this moment.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Cel

All I can say about yesterday is arrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhhhh.

That sums it up pretty well. Please, dear people, no double lynches without a good reason. They benefit the wolves, because it's very probable that more innocents die.

(I will post more in a while, I'm off to explore yesterday's voting.)

[Thinlómien]

Okay, rereading yesterday's voting did not make me any wiser.

However, here come my opinions on my fellow villagers:

THE Ka, Nogrod and Rune all have an innocent air to me.

THE Ka's reasonable arguments and her early attack against Volo make me feel more at ease with her. She's not jumpy or flip-floppy; she seems rather calm even when defending herself.

Of Nogrod I could say that he's contributing. (Surprise! Surprise!) He does not flip-flop and has good points. Overall, he seems innocent. Actually, his a bit hasty attack on Glirdy on Day1 and his "I suspect everyone" - attitude yesterDay speak for his innocence too. Usually he seems to be more aggressive as an innocent than as a wolf, so this comforts me too. (Or maybe I'm just too tired to suspect him this time too... )

Rune's reactions to things feel very genuine. I hope I'm not undersestimating (or insulting) Rune if I say that as a wolf he normally leaves trails and alarming signs and is thus normally caught pretty soon. There have been none this far.

I won't be voting any of these three today.

Then, we come to the less clear cases. No one rings an alarm, but no one assures me of their innocence. These people are Cel, Durelin, Boro and Eonwe.

Like so many of the others, I'm inclined to believe Durelin innocent. Nothing in her worries me in particular. She acts as I've seen an innocent Durelin act. (Though, of course she can be a wolf who's bluffing well.) Unless she does something remarkably suspicious today or I am forced to vote her to save some of those I feel more innocent I won't be voting her today either.

Eonwe is a dangerous questionmark. His randomness and quietness make him a scary opponent. I still guess he's innocent and he has not made any especially wolvish actions and my gut-feeling tells me so ( = he's innocent) too, but I do not dare to trust this Sir Donkey since I have so little to go on. Speak up, Eonwe, please!

I guess that leaves Celuien and Boromir to be the remaining wolves. I'm pretty confident at least another of them is a furry beast. I distrust Boromir more than Celuien.

One of my reasons to suspect Celuien is this:

Originally Posted by Volo, the dead wolf

Celuien: Now here is a strange one. She hasn't said anything good today, or then I'm too blind to see. She might be a wolf but today we can't vote her out really can we?

When I read this, it screamed to me "fellow wolf, fellow wolf". The legendary wolf tactic; suspect, but not too strongly. I might be underestimating Volo's intelligence or ability to do tactics in ww (sorry if I'm doing so), but I think it'd be very easy for an inexperienced wolf to act this way. (More experinced players could maybe avoid this since they know how people usually expect wolves to treat their fellows.)

I must admit that my suspicion of Celuien and Boromir is based on general impressions and feelings of other people's innocence rather than pure reason and facts. I will thus try to manage to do an analysis of both of them in order to clear my mind and hopefully bring up something new points, either for or against their guilt.

[Thinlómien]

Celuien analysis

Day 1
#14 Just checks in. Says she's against random votes too. §§ Pretty much all reasonable people are.
#21 Says that avoiding strategic discussion hurts the village more than the wolves and all the village has to go on is strategy and open debate. Says we need to have to win as a village. Says that village having a tactic or not having one is same in that sense that the wolves can use both against us. §§ Speaks sense. I agree with her. Does not seem wolvish.
#24 States the common opinion(/misunderstanding?): "I'd thought Menel suggested laying out how to find wolves, and Boro had said that doing that would let the wolves use that info against us." Says the same as I comment below: discussion surely benefits the village more than the wolves, unless it goes to extreme. Says she does not know a red flag before she sees it. §§ Again, she speaks sense and thinks the same way as I do.
#34 Agrees with me that Durelin and Glirdan are just being themselves and says she's a part of the majority that don't have any specail suspects. §§ She seems to think exactly along the same lines as I do.
#40 Votes Volo. Says she can't get a read on the posts and it makes her uncomfortable. §§ She means Volo's posts? They were somewhat difficult to grasp at. What is notable here, is that she cast the second vote for Volo. Second vote is often the important one. Though there was much suspicion of other people (Foley, Glirdy) around, I'm not sure if a fellow wolf would risk this.

Boromir analysis

Day 1
#7 Presents his (in)famous comment on discussing tactics: says that if the village speaks of the tactics openly it is easier to hide for the wolves as they know how we expect them to act. Agrees that random-votes are bad. §§ I don't get his point; the discussion surely benefits the village more than the wolves, unless it goes to extreme, eg. "ten rules how to spot a wolf". And what do you on Day1 if not discuss tactics? In-character bantering? On random votes, see what I said about Celuien's first post.
#17 Says: " . . there must be some sort of unity amongst us . . . but our best chance of winning comes down trust in individuals (and that's where the unity comes in). Do I want to trust you? Do you want to trust me? As the days go on we will all be able to establish our own cases against who we think are the wolves and the people we feel safe about." Explains his earlier words as: ". . . I don't think it's a good idea to talk about what we will be looking for the wolves to do, because that makes it far too easier for wolves to hide in and look innocent. If I spot something that looks wolvish, I go right after and jump on it. I don't like to discuss my own personal strategy as far as what I'm looking for the wolves to do, because that makes it easier for the wolves to get on my 'innocent' side, as they will know my mind and what I'm looking for." Half jokingly points out Glirdan's too dramatic reaction on Sleepy's death. §§ I'm not sure if I agree with his earlier theory or if it makes sense, but his explanation of his opinions makes sense. However, he seems to be taking back his words a bit. He might be only clearing his words, but he might also be adding bits in to sound more reasonable.
#28 Compares ww to poker. (= You don't want the opponent to know your cards.) Agrees with Folwren about Durelin. Foley said: "Why the crazy and random vote the THE Ka, Durelin? I really dislike random votes like that, but it makes me think that. . . that a wolf wouldn't do it. I don't know why I think it." Boromir says he dislikes random voting, but does not understand why do people always think that the first random voter of the day is a wolf. Is suspicious of Glirdan because he votes Durelin because of randomness and in the next sentence states his own vote as quite random. Says that Menel, Eonwe, Folwren and Rune all seem sensible so far. §§ Poker analogy makes sense, but I see a slight contradiction in the Foley-Durelin case. Flip-flopping perhaps? First he says he agrees with Folwren (who was suspecting Durelin) and then he questions the logic of accusing the first random voter. Thus, he questions his own logic (if I understood him right) and ain any case he questions the logic of the person he agreed with in the previous sentence.
#37 Suspects Mac because he's acting un-macalaureishly. (Says he does not get the same solid, innocent feeling of Mac as he usually does.) §§ As pointed out by some people before, I find this quite hasty. Mac had just posted one post that implied (at least to me) that he's to be back.
#47 Quick summary on people. Menel, Nogrod = seem innocent, contribute, Rune = gives him the benefit of doubt, says he would expect more posting from him, Ka = agrees with her reasoning, says she's sensible, Thinlomien = good points about Foley, seems innocent for now, Eonwe = good points about evidence. At this phase, adds that mathematically it's very possible, that one of the people listed above is wolf. Summary continues: Diamond = difficult to read and thus dangerous, Volo = shady, could be a great asset, Durelin, Celuien = more worried of other people than them, Folwren = a bit too protective, Mac = suspects for previously mentioned reasons and because of "the behavior of 'discussing strategy is good, but it doesn't help us because no one will ever agree.'", Glirdan = suspicious. §§ I've never understood the point of saying who one does not suspect and then counting the mathematical possibility of a wolf on the list. Surely the list is tried to make thus that it contains no wolves so if the analyser is even a bit clever, the lsit should have less wolves than mathematically would seem probable. (I'm not sure if I'm making sense at all, but my main point is that mathematics are just confusing things in this kind of place.) Besides, his maths is little shady. He gives the first half six persons and one wolf, the sencond seven persons and two wolves, from six and seven it's almost as possible that the gorup of six has two wolves as that it's the group of seven that have two wolves, if one thinks only mathematically. I kind of missed Mac's "the behavior of 'discussing strategy is good, but it doesn't help us because no one will ever agree.'".
#54 Leaves and votes Mac with gut.

Day 1 conclusions
Celuien - If A is innocent and does thing x and B does thing x too, can we assume B's innocence? Not maybe, though it seems probable. Can we by that assume that B's guilty? No way. I'm leaning to Celuien's innocence and seriously consider quitting analysing her since she seems to think exactly the same way as I do. Either she's imitating an innocent logic very well or she's really innocent.
Boromir - Why, o why, did I ever promise myself to analyse him? He speaks so much that it will take a year. He's quite, though not overtly, suspicious and my main suspect. (Of course, my opinion might change, this was only Day1 analysis.)

I'm off to have a pause and then to continue maybe...

EDIT: I seem to be back to my old habit of flooding...

[Nogrod]

I'm back too and have just read the posts written after my last visit.

This is getting annoyingly complicated! (OOC: that's why I love this game!)

With a quick glance I might join those who think that Durelin's list is the best we have thus far and will try to see it further.

I also tend to agree with Boro that there may be something very crafty going on behind the curtains as all the "talkers" have been looking at wrong directions after Day1...

And then one more thing. I'm not sure whether Di was taken as a random. I have started to doubt it somewhat. Think of it this way. Firstly, the wolves had just gained a jackpot (three dead innocents) so they really could afford a little more risky kill the next Night. This would have been their chance to go for it! But they didn't. Secondly, my family-memoires tell me that when the lycanthrophes come up with a suspicion that someone is the Seer they will go for her/him whatever the cost. And as Di didn't overtly behave like a Seer, she must have gotten something right by chance to make the wolves go after her?

Or then those beasts were just incredibly lucky in being somewhat careful non-risk takers last Night...

[Thinlómien]

Glad I'm not the only one around.

I reread Diamond the Seer's summary post. If from that I would have to make out who she dreamed of, I'd say Durelin and Folwren. She seems to be most sure of Foley's innocence and Durelin she frees of guilt with rather mystic reasons "I don't know why I don't suspect her". Maybe these were the clues why wolves were after her. I don't know.

Please, please fellow villagers, as stupid as is to do a double lynch is to narrow down the number of lynch candidates because Diamond might have dreamed of them. Seers can trust some people though they have not dreamed of them. Just like ordos do. And they can get it wrong, too. I think whole this list-business is leading us to nowhere.

Now, I'm off, but I will return about 2h before the deadline. I have a bad feeling that I won't be able to complete my Boro-analysis.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Boro

There is also the possibility that the Mytho is another ordinary innocent.

True. But that would also give us another known ordo - the mytho and the ordinary pick. Almost like having another dream...

I haven't time to go through an analysis right now, unfortunately. Gut feeling tells me that Nogrod and Ka are innocent. Eonwe's response to my question a few posts up felt right, which leads me to think that he is also innocent.

Boro has calmed the suspicions I had yesterday, which may or may not be a good thing. His lupine ancestors have been quite good at tricking me. Be that as it may, I'm back to trusting him again on the basis of toDay's posts, though this is subject to change at any moment. I have trouble feeling certain about him.

Which brings me to Rune. Rune's pressing me to explain the details of why I thought Glirdan innocent is unsettling. I can think of a couple of very good reasons to let that topic drop. He's my top suspect right now. And since I may not back it back before the deadline:

++ Rune

If Rune turns out to be a wolf, Boro's defense of Rune may implicate him. Otherwise, though I find it hard to get a read on Lommy, she may be the other wolf. I just can't tell.

[Nogrod]

I'll go with a couple of suggestions.

I fully agree with Lommy that the Seer is as prone to make wrong judgements as we others are. Di's vote for Mac yesterDay kind of underlines the fact.

But I still would like to cross-examine different possibilities we have here.

1.
Di's a known innocent by now, so there is no malice included in her thoughts and as it is highly probable that she knew at least of one innocent, let's se her list once again.

Of those yet alive she held innocent:

Durelin:

Durelin I feel fairly comfortable with at this time. Not sure why, as she hasn’t posted very much and her Day 1 post was kind of flaky. But I’ve seen Durelin play before as an innocent (heck, as a gifted) and this isn’t unusual and doesn’t mean she isn’t being helpful. In #98 she brings up a phrase of Mac’s that I also puzzled over – however I ended up just deciding that his grammar was off and am not sure whether anything more can be read into it. If it is a slip of a deeper kind, could be quite telling, but I don’t know, those kinds of phrase fudges can be innocently made in haste.

Nogrod:

Augh. The idea of going through all Noggie’s posts just killed me a little. But since he has been very talkative I’ve already formed a feel for him, and I don’t suspect him at this point. His vote for Volo speaks well, unless it’s a fenrising, but I’ll worry about that later if I should have reason to. For now, I’m not even considering voting Noggie so I’ll skip re-reading all his posts.

Boro:

Boro is kind of the same story as Nogrod for me. If I had been able to start this earlier and not forced to cram it into 2 hours, I’d go over his posts but I’m starting to do this shorthand. At any rate, he voted for Mac whom I was also a bit suspicious of yesterday (still am) so nothing about that raises red flags.

Celuien:

Celuien feels pretty innocent to me at this time. Her posts have all been calm and reasonable. Maybe she gets her serenity from knowing who are wolves and who are not, but at this time I don’t feel suspicious enough to start speculating on that. Nothing factual really supports it. She cast a vote for Volo at a time when putting him in the lead on a day notorious for spread out votes, so unless she was trying to fenris wolf him, I look favorably on her voting record.

She seemed to be unsure about:

Eonwe:

Day 1 is pretty much par for the Eonwe course as far as I know. If I recall correctly, he usually gets lynched just by annoying people with his random voting. Day 2 he speaks less, but gives a pretty well reasoned vote for Glirdan (as these things go). Right now I haven’t really got a feel on him either way, but I don’t think I’ve ever been able to get a feel on him in the past, so this isn’t surprising.

Lommy:

Well I don’t have much to go on. I really have nothing to observe on except that I dislike not having anything to observe on. She did seem to overestimate my posting, saying

I’m not sure who’s posts she was reading but it wasn’t mine. I mean, I did start in character, with links! And then said nothing of great consequence beside yawning over the Day 1ishness of the Day so far. So. Weird. Also, she called me cuddly. Like Snuggles the Fabric Softener Teddy Bear? Them’s fighting words.

Yeah, so basically, a whole lot of nothing. Shady….

The Ka:

Bit at a loss about Ka. She voted Volo for reasons I don’t quite understand, and since she turned out to be right could be seen as having good instincts or being in the know. Her vote was cast at a particularly safe time, being the first to vote for Volo, so this could well be wolf-on-wolf tactics. On Day 2 she has so far made some statements speculating on how the wolves are behaving, which kind of doesn’t give me much of an idea about anything.

Rune:

I’m still kind of clueless about Rune, which made me uncomfortable enough to vote for him Day 1. However, I think I have enough suspicions of others after Day 2 to vote for one of them.

So it seems that Di wasn't going after anyone in particular (except Glirdy and Mac! ), if not for Rune, but even that was a bit mild.

It would be easy then to conclude that the wolves didn't kill Di because they thought she was the Seer as they had no reason to believe her the Seer in the first place? I'm quite ready to buy into that argument, but I still have some reservations with it. Something just dosn't feel right here. I'll try to elaborate that during the Day.

2.
But let's take another list first. Volo's list of other people from his last post just before he died (and I agree with those who say he wasn't quite up to the situaton and was writing the stuff with the following Days in mind).

I have checked Boro's neat listing (#100) and have added Boro to the "innocent -list" and moved The Ka from innocents to the "don't knows / unsures". I hope that looks fair enough to you others.

Who Volo named as innocent:

Menel - known innocent
Mac - known innocent
Lommy - ?
Nogrod - ?
Rune - ?
Boro - ?

Who Volo was unsure about:

The Ka - ?
Glirdan - known innocent
Diamond - known innocent
Durelin - ?

Who Volo thought was suspicious:

Folwren - known innocent
Eonwe - ?
Celuien - ?

So eight questionmarks there and two wolves among them. If the list would have ben made by a dying wolf named Spm, Morm, Spawn, or the like I would be quite ready to raise my hands and contend that we might as well forget the list as it would be full of bluffs, double bluffs, triple bluffs... But with Volo I might like to have a look at it.

I'm inclined to agree with Boro that Volo mightn't suspect his fellows openly (it's possible, though). So it would leave the "unsures" and "innocents" to be the possible wolves. After I have taken out myself and Durelin whom I consider innocent, as well as Boro, not so trusty as with Durelin, but still. It leaves me with a list of Rune, Lommy and The Ka.


So did I learn anything from this?

If Diamond was up to something and the wolves got nervous, then it looks a little bad for Rune, Lommy and The Ka, I would say. But, but... Di's suspicions of them are so openly roundabout, that I'm not sure whether they would actually make the wolves nervous in the first place. Then again, the list based on Di's "suspicions", "know nots" or "unsure ofs" or whatever, happens to be the same list I get suspicious from Volo's posting.

Must think about this further...

[Thinlómien]

I might be stupid. I might be wise.

However, I and my left and right eye wish to come out of the closet.

I'm the original seer.

Diamond was the mytho who chose me on Night2. (Obviously, since she was discovered a seer.) So stop analysing her lists. She did not get any dreams. Sleepy hinted this:

Originally Posted by narration

Friends,
Time is scarce. Things have tourned sour. Diamond18 was your seer but do not despair there are things you do not see, things you do not know. Perhaps in the end this will work in your favor. I must be quick for I fear if I am found out there shall be nothing preventing the wolves from picking you all off. Your numbers have dwindled greatly.

I wish you luck!
The Phantom of the Battle-O-Bands

Rune, Nogrod and THE Ka are ordos. That I know.

Celuien, I guess you're the ranger and thus must die next night I fear. Your reluctance to lynch Glirdy and obvious innocence on Day1 led me to this. Please come out too and protect me next night. We'll win.

That leaves us with three unsures: Boro, Eonwe and Durelin. Of these two are wolves. I'm very inclined to believe Boro a wolf.

If Cel protects me next Night, I'll get one more dream and we win the next day, regardless of who I dream of.

Of course, if this tactic will not give results, you know I'm a bluffing wolf and can kill me... I can't think of any profit a wolf could get of this.

[THE Ka]

Ugh... Okay, well it looks like my RL schedule is getting in the way of this game again, especially today, Tuesdays are my long days, and this most likely will be my last post for awhile. So, I am probably going to have to make a vote in this one. If I am lynched for it, I really don't mind. My RL schedule is just messing this game up horribly, and I am falling behind in analyzing.

Originally Posted by Boro

The Ka (who seems more active today like she's anxious to keep the people who are talking against eachother and come under scrutiny) View this post.

( Again, refer to my lack of free time that has been developing as of late, and my relative's death. I'm just too far behind on the wrong day. )

I guess I can give one last bit of thoughts on my mind.

I'm not going to vote immediately for Lommy, due to I understand and agree her RL, she has said in the admin thread that she would had a limit to net access this week, and I can understand this.

Here is something I've noticed, and I don't know how helpful it is, but it just seems alittle, well, too friendly...

Originally Posted by Boro

There was no anger in my post, or at least none intended. It was defensive though, but that's how I am when I get suspected.

I don't know how to put this completely, but it just seems interesting to note how whenever rune or boro explain something about their voting, they will nit pick at little details (like most people do... it's natural in a ww game), then either one will convince the other, and then it is compliments and reassurances. It just seems a bit, well, fishy. I am going to have to agree with Thinlomien about Boro, but just because someone analyzes quite alot, does not mean they can leave all ends trimmed up. Over-analyzing can seem like a fuzzy warm blanket of safety, or barrier of truth, though in this case, I think quite alot of talk is as suspicious as no activity at all...

Originally Posted by Boro

If I agree with you I'll say I agree with you. If I disagree with you I'll say I disagree with you. I'm straight forward and blunt, there's no hidden messages, nor clues, nor secret evil intentions throughout any of my posts. I say what I mean.

Originally Posted by Boro

Let me give you this poker analogy, you don't want your opponent to know your plan, or how you are playing. Beacuse, if they do you are too easy to predict and the other players and they will make you pay for it. I find Werewolf to be the same, I don't want the wolves knowing my mind, so I won't say what I find to be wolvish. Now, if something does look wolvish to me, I'm going to jump out and say so, but I won't discuss what I'm looking for in order to find wolves.

There are no 'secret messages', because if following the poker method, they never will leave what is concluded in one's head. That I agree. You cannot trust anyone in a game of poker, the same as with ww.

Though, jumping out and saying something without much of a conclusion (over-analyzing can have not much of a conclusion too, as never saying much), is equally suspicious for wolfish behaviour, and is the same behaviour as voting for others who vote at random, as on the first day.

I am finding this plan, though I may agree with certain aspects of it, a bit too suspicious. Especially right now.

I do not have enough free time as others as to entirely write out a long, rambling post on this, but I think I have done as much as I can for now.


As I said before, Tuesday is my long day, so I will not have time to finish anything, and I completely understand voting for me on this fact. I have to leave now, and I better get my vote up, since I do not have any time to later, so...

++Boromir88

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Well, I for one belive Lommy, we are simply too clueles for a wolf to pull such a bluff.

and Celuin, I thought you were the seer. . . I then forgot that the Hunter and Ranger knew each others identety, that is why I was stupid enought to bring that subject up.