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Old 08-05-2010, 03:54 PM   #1121
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You missed my entire argument, bud. I didn't just assume Nerwen was Persephone.

Greenie KNEW that she was Persephone. That's where my argument takes off from.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:01 PM   #1122
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Greenie knew Persephone, yes, but it's not necessarily Nerwen.

Also, an interesting quesion. Since Demeter's place was to protect Persephone, doesn't that in a way make her evil? Kind of like the cobbler's secretary or something? And if so, why would she be hinting at Persephone's identity?

Either way, really, I'm not sure I buy this.


More thoughts in a moment, but first dinner.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:09 PM   #1123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Greenie knew Persephone, yes, but it's not necessarily Nerwen.
Yes it is. She's the only person Greenie ruled out as being a Wolf. Done. Over.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Also, an interesting quesion. Since Demeter's place was to protect Persephone, doesn't that in a way make her evil? Kind of like the cobbler's secretary or something?
No. Persephone is not evil in the beginning, not to mention that keeping her alive is good for the tally, and in addition having Hades die before her grants an extra power to Persephone, which she may use for the good of the village.

And perhaps most importantly, she protects Persephone at night. During the night after Tum revealed, the Werewolves could have opted to kill Persephone in order to grant Hades a revenge kill to use on Tum, but Demeter's power prevented that sort of thing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
why would she be hinting at Persephone's identity?
Because she knows it could be useful to the village. For instance- right now.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:26 PM   #1124
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Okay, cool. I never was quite sure on that part.

One problem with that though. The wolves couldn't have done that, because Hades wasn't allowed to say who his beloved was. I'm just sayin'.

And maybe Greenie just didn't suspect Nerwen. Think of that?

I'm going to go look at Greenie's posts myself to see what I can find. Back soon.

ETA: Oi, Downs, I wasn't done. I was trying to add that I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but that I don't think we should run with an assumption that's not been proven accurate. I'll certainly keep it in mind though.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:34 PM   #1125
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Greenie knew Persephone, yes. That doesn't prove it's Nerwen conclusively. So not done, and not over.

I do, in fact, have to vote early. There's a chance I'll be back before DL, but I don't want to risk it.

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Old 08-05-2010, 04:35 PM   #1126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
One problem with that though. The wolves couldn't have done that, because Hades wasn't allowed to say who his beloved was. I'm just sayin'.
But the Wolves could have figured it out even easier than I did due to the fact that they knew precisely who Hades was (so his hint would've been easy to find).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
And maybe Greenie just didn't suspect Nerwen. Think of that?
Someone already made that point!

And my counter-point was- Greenie knew who Persephone was, therefore she knew that person was not a Wolf. So why list them as a Wolf? The fact is everyone here besides Nerwen was at one time or another on Greenie's radar. Would it make any sense for her to do that to Persephone? Especially when she knew good and well that, upon her death, everyone would look at her posts to see who Persephone was?

It makes no logical sense.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:38 PM   #1127
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So if we want to know who to vote we need to know who not to vote for, toDay at least. However, I think I have toMorrow's lynch sealed.

Nerwen is probably not Hephaestus because she could have saved BG on Day One, but instead put in a throwaway vote for Nog which basically ensured that BG was lynched.

Shasta could be Hephaestus, for the opposite reason. He voted to bring Steve to three votes (to BG’s five at the time) and after that more people started to vote for Steve. This was almost certainly a bandwagon vote to save BG, and why else would he save her? She was his lover.

Phantom could be Hephaestus, but I don’t think it’s very likely. He voted to close Steve’s vote gap with BG but to be honest I think we all knew she was doomed at that point, so it could have been just for show, so that if Steve was lynched later and was the cursed, Phantom could do his shiny ‘I told you so’ dance or whatever. He does rather like to do that.

Mira, based on Day One....she was one of the deciding votes. Probably not Hephaestus. Of course it’s possible she was counting on the entire “Steve is cursed” discussion to save BG’s hide, but I think it’s highly unlikely she would take such a high risk as BG’s lover.

Lal voted soon enough that I can’t find a voting connection strong enough to affect my opinions. The same goes for Foley.

I’m not Hephaestus because....well, I’m not. Derp.


So right now my favorite choice for Hephaestus is Shasta, seconded possibly by Lal or Foley. Everyone else (with the exception of Phantom) had a major part in dooming BG, and I can’t see Hephaestus doing that right at the start of the game.

(Note: I removed most of my meta-reasoning before I posted this, because some facts and RL opinions of other villagers was influencing my opinion on people’s votes. Thus, I draw these conclusions from the likelihood of someone acting a certain way based solely on their role.)


ETA: Awwww, he just left. Where's the fun in that?
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:39 PM   #1128
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Shasta just voted for Mira.

If both are innocent, then the game is over. The Wolves and Lover merely need to tack their votes onto that vote.

But, you will observe that nothing of the sort happens. One of them is bad. Guarantee.

I've shown why it's very very likely Shasta. Can anyone make a similarly strong case for Mira utilizing known roles? If not, then you know which way to vote.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:40 PM   #1129
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Greenie knew who Persephone was, therefore she knew that person was not a Wolf. So why list them as a Wolf? The fact is everyone here besides Nerwen was at one time or another on Greenie's radar. Would it make any sense for her to do that to Persephone? Especially when she knew good and well that, upon her death, everyone would look at her posts to see who Persephone was?
I've listed people I trust before as suspects. People who are moderately suspected are less likely to be Night kills, and thus are safer. So yes, you could be right, but I don't think we should plan our entire Day around that fact, at least not without everyone looking into it for themselves.

EDIT: x'd with Phantom
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:43 PM   #1130
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Shasta just voted for Mira.

If both are innocent, then the game is over. The Wolves and Lover merely need to tack their votes onto that vote.

But, you will observe that nothing of the sort happens. One of them is bad. Guarantee.

I've shown why it's very very likely Shasta. Can anyone make a similarly strong case for Mira utilizing known roles? If not, then you know which way to vote.
I'm pretty sure Shasta's not Hades. Rather, I'm really thinking he's Hephaestus, and he can't be both, so....you know.

I need to look over the voting record (now that I can compile it all, since someone *cough* Phantom *cough* did nothing to help with that all afternoon) in full.

Oh, and we're not done yet. Let's just make sure we all swing in the right direction.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:43 PM   #1131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
So yes, you could be right, but I don't think we should plan our entire Day around that fact
So, we shouldn't plan our day around the best piece of evidence that we have?

Show me any other knowledge available to us. Seer dreams? Nope.

The only concrete thing we have to go on is that Greenie KNEW for a FACT who Persephone was. Reading her posts, the extremely obvious conclusion is that Persy is Nerwen.

Sorry, m'dear, but that is by far and away the only logical place to start.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:44 PM   #1132
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So, we shouldn't plan our day around the best piece of evidence that we have?

Show me any other knowledge available to us. Seer dreams? Nope.

The only concrete thing we have to go on is that Greenie KNEW for a FACT who Persephone was. Reading her posts, the extremely obvious conclusion is that Persy is Nerwen.

Sorry, m'dear, but that is by far and away the only logical place to start.
No, I mean we shouldn't take your word on said piece of evidence. Big difference.

Love you too, Phantom, darling.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:44 PM   #1133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
I'm pretty sure Shasta's not Hades. Rather, I'm really thinking he's Hephaestus, and he can't be both, so....you know.
So, you don't think he's this Wolf, but rather that Wolf.

A Wolf is a Wolf. Vote for him.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:46 PM   #1134
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So, you don't think he's this Wolf, but rather that Wolf.

A Wolf is a Wolf. Vote for him.
No no no no no. See my "kill Hades" post earlier this afternoon for why it actually matters which wolf we get toDay.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:55 PM   #1135
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Guess what? It's time for me to leave for softball, and I can't be absolutely certain that I'll be back before deadline. So...

++ Shasta

If I am wrong, the game is over, because the 2 Wolves and Lover will just pile on.

If I am right, and anyone innocent votes for someone other than Shasta, the game is over.

Have fun, guys.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:56 PM   #1136
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*blinks*

I just lost the game. o_O

*gulps*

Anybody there?
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Old 08-05-2010, 05:45 PM   #1137
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Yeah, I'm here. Trying to decide what to do. Particularly as my time zone makes me have to vote so stupidly early.

On top of the various logical puzzles my fellow players are presenting, I've just thought about another thing to consider - what happens if Mira is modfired?
1 If Mira is a wolf (which I really think he is) we vote for him, and he is modfired as well, we are in a good position to win the game.
2. Even if Mira isn't a wolf, is modfired, and we have voted to lynch Mira anyway, we haven't lost the game.
3. But if Mira is modfired, isn't a wolf, AND we get the lynch wrong, we have totally lost the game.

Unfortunately I have no way of knowing if Mira is likely to post or not. I will have to go to bed long before deadline.
My head is going round in circles.
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Old 08-05-2010, 05:59 PM   #1138
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*cough* Mira is a girl *cough*


In other news, allow me to clarify.

Don't freaking vote for:
Sally
Phantom

Probably don't vote for:
Foley
Nerwen

Vote for:
Shasta
Mira
Lal


Considering that we can't afford to split the vote anymore than we already have, we're stuck with the first two suspects in that last category. Which is sort of fine with me, although I really think the odds are good of Lal being a wolf, possibly even Hades.
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Old 08-05-2010, 06:32 PM   #1139
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The thing is, we all seem fairly sure who Phantom is and if so why are we trusting him. In fact, CAN we be sure that Phantom is who we think he is?
Mind you I don't trust Shasta either. Could be skittish, could be sinister.

Once again, I've been trying to figure all of this out while far too sleepy. When all's said and done, I think voting for Shasta is too much of a risk and I think my Mira logic works.

++MIRA-KEEPER
PS sorry about the gender confusion
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Old 08-05-2010, 06:37 PM   #1140
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Oh freaking bother.
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Old 08-05-2010, 07:51 PM   #1141
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mreep!

*slinks in* Oh hai. Family crises + awful drives home + disgustingly boring day at work = massive shock that I actually remembered to get on here. Looks like it's a good thing I did, too. Dying isn't all that high up on my list of things to do tonight (not that much is after eating and sleeping).

Lynch me and you're definitely not doing the village any favors. Pick your method of convincing, but make it fastish because I can't guarantee how long I can stay awake.
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Old 08-05-2010, 07:55 PM   #1142
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Well who are you? Or can you say?

And oh, heavens. Foley voted on the wrong thread. *meeps* Does that still count?
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Old 08-05-2010, 07:55 PM   #1143
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Also, hai dere.
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Old 08-05-2010, 07:57 PM   #1144
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Well who are you? Or can you say?

And oh, heavens. Foley voted on the wrong thread. *meeps* Does that still count?
Fabulous question. Guess who deleted the PM with her role? Oh, that's right, this kid. Ima try to get a hold of our fabulous mod and ask.
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Old 08-05-2010, 07:58 PM   #1145
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Fabulous question. Guess who deleted the PM with her role? Oh, that's right, this kid. Ima try to get a hold of our fabulous mod and ask.
You....you don't know who you are? Seriously?
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:00 PM   #1146
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You....you don't know who you are? Seriously?
Oh I know who I am, I just don't remembering if revealing is kosher or is going to get me yelled at.
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:02 PM   #1147
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Oh I know who I am, I just don't remembering if revealing is kosher or is going to get me yelled at.
Okay, gotcha. I was gonna say....
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:04 PM   #1148
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Well you could always put out a suspect list in the meantime?

Yeah, I know, I'm being co-dependent. I'm sugared up and lonely. Shush.
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:11 PM   #1149
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Well you could always put out a suspect list in the meantime?

Yeah, I know, I'm being co-dependent. I'm sugared up and lonely. Shush.
Ah yes, my dear, I could. However, that would require me going back and reading a whole lot of stuff that is bound to confuse me and I'm not all that sure my poor head can take that at the moment.

What I am going to do, though, is go through toDay's posts at least and hash out the implications of voicing certain thoughts and whatnot.
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:22 PM   #1150
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Shiny. *snuggles you, hopes you're not furry and nasty*
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:31 PM   #1151
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Shiny. *snuggles you, hopes you're not furry and nasty*
Only if you ask Fea.

So I'm leaning toward Shasta. As much as I hate to admit it, phantom made a decent point regarding him. Also, I enjoy revenge votes.

There is a chance I could be persuaded otherwise, but sleepy!Mira would really like to be unconscious!Mira, so I'll probably vote early.
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:36 PM   #1152
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Reading her posts, the extremely obvious conclusion is that Persy is Nerwen
It may be obvious to you, tp... but I notice you consistently dodge my question. That is, how to explain Mac's trying to lynch me, from Greenie-Demeter's perspective? Now, there are characters who could have afforded to play like that on Day One, but not, I think, that particular pair. Also, reading back I notice you made a very forceful case for Mac's being Hades yourself, and maybe Greenie was following that.

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Shasta could be Hephaestus, for the opposite reason. He voted to bring Steve to three votes (to BG’s five at the time) and after that more people started to vote for Steve. This was almost certainly a bandwagon vote to save BG, and why else would he save her? She was his lover.
...And this is perfectly good reasoning, too. So yeah, he might be a wolf. I mean, he's done so little this game, he could be anything. But– for obvious reasons– I'm not exactly willing to vote him on phantom's say-so.

Also, this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by phantom
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So, you don't think he's this Wolf, but rather that Wolf.

A Wolf is a Wolf. Vote for him.
No no no no no. See my "kill Hades" post earlier this afternoon for why it actually matters which wolf we get toDay.
Meanwhile Lal's jumping on Mira, just as she jumped on Kath... and Mira seems to be trying to think of a role she can safely reveal as. Neither of them looks all that shining-clean to me.

EDIT:X'd with Mira and Sally.
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:38 PM   #1153
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Personally I think you're all evil.
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:41 PM   #1154
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Personally I think you're all evil.
What, leaving yourself out?
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:41 PM   #1155
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Only if you ask Fea.

So I'm leaning toward Shasta. As much as I hate to admit it, phantom made a decent point regarding him. Also, I enjoy revenge votes.

There is a chance I could be persuaded otherwise, but sleepy!Mira would really like to be unconscious!Mira, so I'll probably vote early.
Otherwise? What otherwise? It's you or Shasta; anything else will split the vote enough that the wolves might be able to just pile on someone and win.

This just looks weird.
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:42 PM   #1156
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Meanwhile Lal's jumping on Mira, just as she jumped on Kath... and Mira seems to be trying to think of a role she can safely reveal as. Neither of them looks all that shining-clean to me.

EDIT:X'd with Mira and Sally.
Ooor you don't know how awful my memory is. Ask Nienna, Fea, Lari, Alona, Shasta, wilwa, Glirdy, Formy...well you get the point. My memory is awful.
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Last edited by Keeper of Dol Guldur; 08-05-2010 at 08:42 PM. Reason: xed with sally
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:43 PM   #1157
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Otherwise? What otherwise? It's you or Shasta; anything else will split the vote enough that the wolves might be able to just pile on someone and win.

This just looks weird.
Well dear, last I checked you were pushing for either me, Shasta, of Lai. That would be the otherwise.
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:43 PM   #1158
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What, leaving yourself out?
Well I was going to explain my views on everyone, but then I wanted to make myself a snack. Then I realized that I didn't really need to post all that anyway, because you guys will be making me a snack later anyway.

Bad!pun is bad. Tired!Sally is tired.
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:53 PM   #1159
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Incidentally, dear, did you see my "analysis" of you? Any thoughts/protests?
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:56 PM   #1160
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Incidentally, dear, did you see my "analysis" of you? Any thoughts/protests?
Is this directed at me? I did see it, but didn't scrutinize. I'll go back and look just for you.
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