Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[the guy who be short]

The moon had just risen, large, cold and quite cheesy looking. As a cloud brushed by, a shadow fell upon the small hamlet below. The villagers, mostly heading to bed by now, shivered in the dark. The last restful day of their lives had just ended.

Rules:

The players represent a village, and each member of the village has a role, which is kept secret. Most players are Ordinary Villagers, but three are Werewolves, one is a Seer, one a Hunter, one a Ranger, one a Cursed Villager, and two are Shiriffs. The goal of the villagers is to eliminate all of the werewolves. Likewise, the goal of the werewolves is to eliminate the villagers, which they can do if the number of non-werewolves is equal or less than the number of werewolves.

Gameplay

The game consists of two different phases: Night and Day. The game begins with a short Night post before the first Day.

Night

Night lasts 24 hours, or less if all night-time activity is completed before then.

During Night, only Werewolves may PM one another. The Werewolves must PM the Moderator about who they have chosen to kill.
The Seer must PM the Moderator concerning their Dream.
The Hunter must PM the Moderator concerning who they want to kill if they die.
The Ranger must PM the Moderator concerning who they want to protect.

Day

Day lasts 24 hours, or less if all day-time activity is completed before then.

During the daytime the villagers all wake up and find that one of their own has been killed by the werewolves. At this point at least one player is a werewolf and so someone is gonna get lynched.

During this phase all players, including werewolves who have assumed villager form, must publicly discuss their suspicions. Eventually it will reach a point where villagers start to cast votes for who they feel is a werewolf and must be lynched. Votes are non-retractable and are cast by bolding a name with a ++ sign before it, all in capitals, e.g. ++THE GUY WHO BE SHORT. At the end of the Day (or earlier if a majority is reached before this) the player with the most votes is lynched (killed) and their secret role is revealed. If votes are tied, all nominees are killed.

When the lynching is finished all the villagers go back to their homes to sleep and the next Night begins.

Winning

The villagers win if they kill all of the werewolves. The werewolves win if they kill enough villagers so that their numbers are equal. At this point the werewolves can openly rise up and slaughter the rest of the villagers.

Roles (in slightly more detail):

Ordinary Villagers: All they have to do is deduce the werewolves by Day.

Werewolves: Choose one person to kill per Night by PMing one another and discussing their ideas, then PM the Moderator with this decision. Werewolves may not PM each other during Day. During Day, they should try to avoid detection as werewolves.

Seer: Chooses one person to Dream about each Night. The role of this person is revealed only to the Seer. During Day, the Seer should use this information to influence the debate as inconspicuously as possible.

Cursed Villager: The Cursed Villager doesn’t know that they are cursed. If the Cursed Villager is killed by Werewolves, the moderator will announce that nobody was killed. The Cursed Villager then becomes a Werewolf and is introduced to his/her new team mates. If the Cursed Villager is lynched, whether before or after transformation, their role will not be revealed.

The Werewolf Hunter: If the Hunter is killed by a Werewolf or hanged by Villagers, he/she names one other player before being killed. That player is then automatically killed. The Hunter should PM the Moderator each Night to say who they want to kill if they die during night. If the Hunter is lynched during Day, there might be a small delay in the beginning of the next Night as they will need to contact the Moderator

The Ranger: Each night, the Ranger names another player. If that player is the Werewolf victim, the victim survives and there is no death that night.

The Shirriffs: These are two otherwise Ordinary Villagers who know each other and thus know that they are both innocent. They may PM one another by Day to discuss ideas, but not by Night.

Discrepancies

Compromising privacy: You can say you're a villager/seer/werewolf, etc. all you want, but under no circumstances should you post anything that would give your claim absolute credibility. You are not allowed to post any PMs or other private conversation between yourself and the game moderator. Infractions of this rule are grounds for immediately disqualification from that game and all future games.

Outside interference: Once you are killed in a werewolf game you should no longer post in the thread, or the Werewolf I thread, or communicate with players that are still alive in the game. You're dead. Dead people tell no tales. Breaching of this rule will result in disqualification from all future games.

Private Messages: Players may not PM one another about the game; all discussion must be open. The exceptions are the Werewolves, who may only PM one another during Night, and Shirriffs, who may only PM one another by DAY. Please remember to keep space for PMs from other players or the Moderator, if relevant.

Role Play: Players should not refer to the game as a game. I will have to insist that you do not mention past villagers whatsoever as this rule was completely ignored last game. It is, of course, okay to theorize concerning werewolf tactics. This hardly requires the words “When I was a Werewolf in Game II…” to be attached to the front of the theory. Breaking this rule will result in a warning, breaking it a second time will result in automatic lynching.

Absences: Each player must make at least one post per Day, however short. This post does not have to include a vote, voting is not compulsory. If a player will be away for more than one Day, they should announce a trip on this thread. If no information is given beforehand, players who do not post anything during a Day phase that is roughly 24 hours long, or two Middle-sized Day phases (about 12 hours each) will be automatically lynched. Absentee villagers will not be lynched on DAY 1 as they have no chance to tell the others about their absence beforehand. Lynching of absentees starts on Day 2.

Please remember to stay invisible. You can do this by going to User CP, change options and clicking the Invisible Mode button.

Rules are important. Just to be mean, anybody who dies through rule breaking will have an incredibly boring death. ;)


Players:

Anguirel (Travelling judge, a brehon)
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Seamstress)
Celuien (Weaver)
dancing spawn of ungoliant (Housemaid)
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Sea-faring rapscallion)
Esgallhugwen (Candlestick [and Candle] maker)
Evisse the Blue (Baker specialising in fortune cookies)
Feanor of the Peredhil (Mysterious Artist)
Firefoot (Runs a Fruit Stand)
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Lalaith (Wet-nurse)
littlemanpoet (Butcher with a tendency to speak in doggerel)
Nilpaurion Felagund (Suspicious person)
Oddwen (Village Idiot)
Saurreg (Furrier)
the guy who be short (Scholar specialising in lycanthropic lore)
the phantom (Arrogant healer)

The village comprises:

3 Werewolves
1 Seer
1 Ranger
1 Hunter
1 Cursed Villager
2 Shirriffs
9 Ordinary Villagers



It is now NIGHT 1. NIGHT will end in 24 hours (6pm GMT, 1:00pm EST, 12:00pm Central) or earlier if all night time activity (a PM from the Seer and a PM from the werewolves notifying that they are ready to begin) ends before then.

[the guy who be short]

The villagers awoke after an uneasy slumber, silently gathering in the village square. Each of them had found it hard to sleep, and were convinced that they had heard howls during the night. The memory of the previous night’s unrest seemed strangely reinforced – something felt, well, different. Was it the still air, or the distinct lack of birdsong, or the absence of people walking into the Village Midget?
Suddenly, one of the villagers broke the silence, saying quietly “hang on a minute… where’s the guy who be short?” The whisper echoed around the square.
And indeed, the friendly village Dwarf was missing.
“Perhaps he’s fallen sick?” somebody piped up.
But of course, everybody knew dwarves don’t get sick. Suddenly, all the feelings of unease returned, redoubled.
As one, the rabble rushed to the Dwarf’s humble abode. Somebody knocked on the door, to no reply. Without words, the menfolk rushed the door, which collapsed inward under its weak hinges.
The villagers poured into the single-roomed abode. The books the Dwarf usually pored over were all ripped to shreds, scraps of scrolls littering the ground.
And there, lying next to one of the walls, was sprawled on his stomach the unliving body of the guy who be short. His left side lay in a pool of blood where large chunks of flesh had been hewn out of his carcass, and the open wound seemed to glow crimson. The villagers stood, dumb.
“Bite marks… Werewolves” somebody muttered. And indeed, this was no strange form of leprosy: the marks of wolvish canines were visible for all to see. You didn’t need to be a scholar specializing in lycanthropic lore – incidentally, the guy who be short was - to see that.
“What’s that? somebody else asked, indicating the wall by which the carcass lay. As one, the people looked, for there, scribbled upon the wall in blood, was a thinly etched “3.”
“What could that possibly mean… are the perpetrators saying they want three more lives?”
“No… His fingers are bloody, look. When they attacked him, he must have written that in desperation with his own blood. It’s a final warning from the guy who be short. There are three beasts amongst us…”

Living:

Anguirel
Azaelia of Willowbottom
Celuien
dancing spawn of ungoliant
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Esgallhugwen
Evisse the Blue
Feanor of the Peredhil
Firefoot
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Nilpaurion Felagund
Oddwen
Saurreg
the phantom

Dead:

the guy who be short (Villager) - partially consumer by werewolves on NIGHT 1.

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 14


It is now DAY 1. DAY will end in 24 hours at 4pm GMT, 11am EST, 10am Central, or earlier if a majority is reached before then. May I remind the werewolves that they may no longer PM one another, and the Shirriffs that they may. :)

To quote Film-Theoden:
So it begins.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

"What a fantastic shade of crimson..." the artist of the crowd breathed, as she stared open-mouthed at the horror before her. "So vivid... I wonder if I could replicate it..."

Well, folks, I propose a beginning. We've got a problem on our hands, and no way to solve it logically... at least not yet. So here is my solution: let's blame the butler. Everything is always the butler's fault, so there's the obvious answer.

Wait... what do you mean, we haven't got a butler? Fine... we'll do the next best thing. Let's all say Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant is at fault. If it wasn't the butler, let's blame the maid.

[Celuien]

Alas for the guy who would be short! His lycanthropic knowledge will be sorely missed - it seems that werewolf lore is what we need most now.

We've a problem on our hands and no mistake. But I'd like to wait a bit before coming to any conclusions about the identities of the monsters among us...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

What's the point of waiting, Celuien? It's not like the werewolves are going to take two steps forward from a long line of villagers and shout "Hey y'all, you should lynch US!" Our best bet is to randomly pick (although don't do what I did... the first time I closed my eyes and pointed to the list on the screen, I opened my eyes to find that I was preparing to accuse myself!).

My point is that, since we have no way of knowing, at least until our seer shows up, and let's hope we don't misunderstand his or her message :eek:, all we can go on is random accusations and observations of people's reactions to said accusations. I still say let's beat on Spawn a little. It's not like we have anyone better to accuse. *no offence, Spawny m'dear* Once we see who allies themselves with who, as well as who accuses who and why, and factoring out old grudges and that sort of thing that could sway a vote... then we can start to really figure things out. Until we've got a lot of useless gibberish being sent back and forth, we can't know who's paws are stained scarlet with TGWBS's blood.

[the phantom]

Fea is somewhat correct. Here on this first day we are pretty much shooting in the dark.

However, I don't believe that we should just pick a target and pull the trigger.

I suggest that someone volunteer to be lynched.

Yes, you read that right.

Besides wolves, this village has special individuals who can help us to find wolves, and we want to be sure and not lynch them today.

We have a 17.6% chance of picking a wolf. It would be nice to get one, but the odds say we won't.

We have a 29.4% chance of picking either the seer, the ranger, the hunter, or one of our two sheriffs. We definitely don't want to lynch one of them.

We have a 52.9% chance of picking an innocent villager.

Since the odds say we will pick an innocent villager, I suggest that one of them step forward and volunteer to be lynched. That will ensure that we do not lynch one of our gifted villagers, and also we just might kill the cursed villager (which would be a blow to the wolves).

So, if you are an innocent villager without any special abilities and you also think you might be in and out of town a bit and thus not able to participate in our werewolf finding endeavor that much- then perhaps the greatest thing you can do for this village is to volunteer to be lynched today.

Anyone?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

What a fantastic idea, phantom. Here's a better one: if it's the smartest, greatest, most logical, and best thing to sacrifice your innocent self for the good of the village, why don't you volunteer for it yourself?

EDIT: Oh, and now that I think of it more, that's a terrible idea. No offense or anything. ;) Let me explain why your idea sounds wolfish to me:

When we cast our votes today, we have a disturbingly high chance of slaughtering an innocent. As bad as that is... if somebody volunteers to be slain, then we GUARANTEE that we slaughter an innocent! Why in the world would we want to make absolute certain that we are killing a non-wolf villager? What the heck is the point of it? It will leave us back to square one, only tomorrow morning, instead of one villager slain by wolves and one villager maybe lynched, we'll have two dead innocents, and the only new information we'll have is who the werewolves decided to kill. We're going to have that no matter what, so why, I ask, do you think it's a good idea to make absolutely certain that we kill somebody innocent?

[the phantom]

why don't you volunteer for it yourself?
I see that you ignored one of the requirements for someone to volunteer themselves-
...and you also think you might be in and out of town a bit and thus not able to participate in our werewolf finding endeavor that much
I don't meet that requirement. I will be in town and active every day.

It would be much better to lynch an innocent who might be absent a lot because, as you know, if someone is gone too long then they are automatically killed anyway.

More listening and less talking my dear. ;)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Right. It's still a horrible idea. Read my edit to see why.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, well, well. First things first: send for the cleaner!

I always liked the dwarf. Oftentimes we would drink rum into the wee hours. Course! he would always end the occasions; always wanting to study a bit before bedtime. Improves the learning, don't you know? A clever little fellow and no mistake. I'll miss him.

But 'ere we have an idea to flush out these beasts, proposed by the phantom. 'Tis an interesting one and no mistake. Only problem I have is this: no one wants to die! I certainly will not offer myself up to be executed like a common thief. I've dodged that before and I'll do it again. No, no, no sir; we got ourselves werewolves to hang, not our friendly villagers.

If anyone else wants to offer hisself up for sacrifice then go ahead; I'll let you know right now that it ain't going to be me. I guess some among you will take that stance as hard evidence of my wolfish ways, but so be it. I'm selfish; deal with it.

As for the wolves, I have me suspects: that Anguirel for one. He's a trickster and no mistake. Oftentimes I wish I had his certain way with skullduggery. A wicked wordsmith, no doubt. Sure, he has a high place in the village, but what better place to keep silent?

But then, I have a lot of suspects. Oooh, I think I need some rum and fresh air to sort this one out.

Hang on, wouldn't it be a good idea to search the houses of every villager? You never know, we might find some wolf hair tangled on the door, or odd saliva hither and thither. Just a thought.

Forth!

[Firefoot]

The problem with this method is that we are guaranteed to be lynching an innocent, as, obviously, a wolf won't volunteer to be lynched. Also, we won't learn anything by it as we would all be voting for the same person this way and we won't have people's responses to judge. We won't have gotten anywhere and will be in virtually the same spot tomorrow.

Edit: Basically what Fea said in her edit...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

If it wasn't the butler, let's blame the maid. ... I still say let's beat on Spawn a little.
Well, that's just nice. I should have listened to my mother and gone to law school. As an innocent, I'm rather disinclined to die in spite of phantom's probability calculation.

It's true that the wolves don't probably care, who is going to get lynced on the first day as long as s/he isn't one of them and therefore we can't point them out by their behaviour. However, the Seer might have something interesting to say. I'd also like to see other residents participating the negotiations before we decide anything drastic.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

*looks abashed*

Yes, sorry about that Spawn. You just happened to be the second person that I randomly picked.

I have to agree with Eomer also... even if we weren't guaranteeing ourselves two dead innocents, nobody really wants to die, so nobody is going to step out and say "Hey, lynch me!" Except me. You can lynch me if you really feel the need to. ;) Means I can get back to my drawing in peace.

PS: just kidding about that lynching thing

[the phantom]

if somebody volunteers to be slain, then we GUARANTEE that we slaughter an innocent!
We are nearly guaranteed the slaughter of an innocent anyway, it's just that with my plan we won't accidentally kill the seer or somebody like that.

My plan is basically to preserve our gifted villagers for as long as possible. The wolves do not have a very high probability of selecting the seer during the night, and so, if we kill someone who for sure isn't the seer the first two days, then the seer is very likely to survive until day three.

And if the seer survives until day three, he/she will have a nice bit of information for us to use. And if the guardian is still alive as well, the seer will be able to come right out and declare himself/herself and request the guardian's protection thus giving us another dream to base our accusations on.

Our main purpose should be to keep the seer alive until at least day three or four. If we can do that, then there are ways of flushing the wolves out even if the seer has not had any successful dreams.

And honestly, with the population advantage that we currently have, lynching a for-sure innocent today and tomorrow will only take us down to a 10 to 3 advantage, which is where some towns who have been plagued by wolves start off at the beginning. The difference between those towns and ours, though, would be that our seer will have had three dreams to work with.

Numerically, my idea makes sense.

The primary obstacle to the plan is whether or not anyone will volunteer.

[Firefoot]

Except you're still promoting the idea of deliberately lynching an innocent that would not even give us information as to who might be guilty. This would seem to benefit the wolves very much.

And, interestingly enough, according to my very reliable sources (coughcoinflippingcough), phantom is one of our wolves... :eek: ;) :rolleyes:

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

No-one's going to offer themselves up except you phantom. Unless of course, you're................a wolf! :p

Just kidding. I realise that you may very well be the Seer, Guardian or whatever.

Anyway, too much emphasis on plans and methods. Let's just watch the accusations and voting patterns. We can work out the problem. Sure, some of us are going to die in the process but we can do it.

Case in point: I accuse Lalaith. She's always been pretty quiet and suspicious in my mind. Also, I'm sure I saw her one Autumn eve a few years back, stealing through the trees with a malicious glint in my eye. Course, you all said I was crazy back then: "Crazy ol' Eomer, one too many drams agin'!"

Well, don't say I didn't warn ye. Keep an eye on that lass. And Anguirel too.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Alas for the poor stouted fellow.

We have a 17.6% chance of picking a wolf. It would be nice to get one, but the odds say we won't.

We have a 29.4% chance of picking either the seer, the ranger, the hunter, or one of our two sheriffs. We definitely don't want to lynch one of them.

We have a 52.9% chance of picking an innocent villager.

Hum... I don't like those odds. As for the "17.6%", will that decrease, as W-Ws are eliminated? I'd hate to think what it would be like if we managed to get all bar one of the W-Ws... We might be here for weeks! :eek: ;)

And Firefoot, coin flipping is, in fact, the best kind of determining anything! :D At least, I think so anyway...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Our main purpose should be to keep the seer alive until at least day three or four. And here I thought that our main purpose was to kill werewolves. What could I have been thinking?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It's outrageous thinking like that that's gonna get you slain, m'dear!

[the phantom]

Except you're still promoting the idea of deliberately lynching an innocent that would not even give us information as to who might be guilty.
And how, pray tell, would you get that information?

Who voted for who rarely tells you anything at all. A common villager knows nothing about who is guilty, therefore their vote tells you nothing. Only the vote of a werewolf means anything, and we don't know who the werewolves are.

The only way we might be able to pick out werewolves based on their votes is if we catch one first, which is extremely unlikely. In fact, it is more likely that we will lynch one of our gifted villagers than it is we will lynch a wolf.

Given that fact, it would be a good idea to remove both the wolves and the gifted villagers from consideration on day one, kill an innocent, and allow the seer to gather information during the night. Need I remind you that the seer is the ONLY villager who can ever possess real information?

[Kath]

And here I thought that our main purpose was to kill werewolves.

This is true Fea but the phantoms point remains true. If we leave the vote up chance there is far more chance of us lynching someone important to the village, someone who could be of more help in the werewolf hunt than an inoocent villager.

But the main flaw in the plan remains, it is unlikley that there is anyone selfless enough to give up their own life for the wellbeing of the village except those who are more useful alive.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Might I remind you that the Seer had a dream last night? The villagers already have information, we're just either not skilled enough to see it, or we haven't been exposed to it yet. Killing an innocent today ups our chances of killing a gifted innocent tomorrow, unless you plan on having an offered sacrifice daily until it's only werewolves left? Somehow I don't see that working well.

[the phantom]

If we leave the vote up chance there is far more chance of us lynching someone important to the village, someone who could be of more help in the werewolf hunt than an inoocent villager.
Yes.
But the main flaw in the plan remains, it is unlikley that there is anyone selfless enough to give up their own life for the wellbeing of the village except those who are more useful alive.
Yes.

Kath seems to have a good understanding of things.
The villagers already have information
Not enough- yet.
Killing an innocent today ups our chances of killing a gifted innocent tomorrow, unless you plan on having an offered sacrifice daily
1) Even if it ups our chances of killing one tomorrow, it lessens our chances of killing one today. That's not really an argument.
2) I do intend on offering a daily sacrifice.

But before you freak out, I'm only suggesting two- one today and one tomorrow. As I said earlier, if the seer and guardian make it through the first two days and nights alive then we will be in excellent shape and still have a significant advantage in numbers.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

What's the point of the villagers winning, if you leave none left to celebrate?

[the phantom]

What's the point of the villagers winning, if you leave none left to celebrate?
That query is so nonsensical I can barely begin to answer it.

It doesn't matter who is left alive at the end as long as none of them are wolves. The ultimate positive outcome for a villager is for the village to win, so if the village wins nothing else matters!

Please remain silent if you can only ask questions like that.

[littlemanpoet]

Phew! I'm free at last from my day at the shop,
and find the boards already at a hop!
Plans a flinging accusations flying,
and just one guy singing while trying
to lie, did you notice the tongue slip
of ol' Eomer, in his little quip
which I'll quote:

I accuse Lalaith. She's always been pretty quiet and suspicious in my mind. Also, I'm sure I saw her one Autumn eve a few years back, stealing through the trees with a malicious glint in my eye.

D'you notice the goof he wrote?
Trying on Lalaith to cast suspicion,
he accuses himself with his malediction!
His words I've bolded.
With his own lips he's told it.

'Course I could be wrong,
but I might be right!
the phantom's plan is strong,
but what wight
will say lynch me
seriously?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Good observation lmp, but isn't the aim of the game to find werewolves and not make me look like an idiot? :rolleyes: :D

The malicious glint in my eye is entirely different from a werewolf's.

phantom, you seem very sceptical of voting patterns telling us things. Why so? Fallacious reasoning in voting can tell us oodles. Say littlemanpoet votes for me based on my previous mistake (which, of course, he won't because he's no fool). If he votes for me it should be based on other things (ruffling of feathers, perhaps?) but not on so silly a thing.

And werewolves can let their guard down and make vital mistakes. So let's keep our eyes peeled.

[the phantom]

Why would you put your words into verse
when you can speak frankly, simple, and terse?
This is not the place for artistic expression,
we have wolves to catch, this is not a poetry session!
Poetry is at best an annoyance,
to glean from it meaning requires clairvoyance
What I'm trying to say should be terribly clear-
we do not want you silly poems here!

;)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

And you should talk, tp, when your best plan is knowingly slaughtering innocents? Forgive me when I laugh at you.
Our gifted villagers are a perk, nothing more. They are just as expendable as anyone else. So what if the Seer dies? The odds are against us that we'll even know who it is until it's too late. And can the Ranger protect for more than one night in a row? If we kill the Ranger? Then everybody's chances of night time survival are still equal. Our Shirriffs are helpful only to each other, and even that is slim, as neither has anything to go on but hunches. Our Hunter is who we should be most worried about slaying, because he or she takes someone to the grave beside him/her, but even that isn't that bad, because the Hunter has what, a 17.6% chance of picking who also dies accurately?

Though we may mourn the loss of our gifted members, their deaths will not be as severely detrimental as intentionally killing people that we know aren't werewolves! While I can appreciate your idea, tp, I cannot condone it, and I will not. I want everyone listening to know that, should you decide to offer up evening sacrifices, I am whole-heartedly against it. I see it only as saying "Well, we know for certain that you are innocent, so we'll kill you, instead of the sketchy looking guy over there." Completely pointless.

[Kath]

But surely this plan makes some sense for today as so far we have no 'sketchy looking characters', well with the possible exception of Eomer and his little Freudian (?) slip there. Since we have nothing upon which to base our votes and guesses one innocent and less important villager's death will mean we still have the Seer, the Rangers and the Shirrifs, the latter of which we surely need both of or they become useless.

[the phantom]

Fea, you're going to get yourself lynched.
Our gifted villagers are a perk, nothing more. They are just as expendable as anyone else.
An absurd statement.
So what if the Seer dies?
The most absurd statement I've ever seen.
Though we may mourn the loss of our gifted members, their deaths will not be as severely detrimental as intentionally killing people that we know aren't werewolves!
Wrong. The numbers are against you. Removing wolves and gifted villagers from the lynch pool is a statistical advantage at this stage in the game. If you add them to the lynch pool, the chances of killing a gifted villager are greater than killing a wolf, therefore it is a statistical advantage for the wolves in that it would increase the chances of their primary foes being killed.
I see it only as saying "Well, we know for certain that you are innocent, so we'll kill you, instead of the sketchy looking guy over there."
What "sketchy looking guy"? Where is he? Can anyone point him out?

No.

Everyone will look equally sketchy to innocents because innocents know nothing. As a matter of fact, it is likely that the wolves will purposefully behave in such a way that they appear to be the LEAST SKETCHY. Duh.

At this point I am almost willing to abandon my plan and lynch Fea just for being extremely silly.

I mean, honestly Fea! You said "So what if the seer dies?"! Who says stuff like that? You, Fea, are definitely the most "sketchy" looking person thus far. If you are a gifted villager I would recommend that you quit acting like this, because it's going to get you lynched.

Unless, of course, Fea is acting like this on purpose knowing she will get lynched?

Perhaps she is sacrificing herself and agrees with my plan after all?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Kath - I'm watching you.

The joke had passed yet you felt the need to bring my name up again? Hoom hroom indeed.

This is exactly the fallacious reasoning I was talking about. lmp was clearly joking; I don't think you were.

If innocent then you should realise this and post it. You cannot suggest me on such evidence; we need hard evidence.

Like the malevolent glint in Lalaith's eye. :D Let her speak!

phantom, you posted that 'joke' earlier, which suggested hostility at lmp. Such a strange post, as it added nothing to the discussion. So unlike such a wise man as yourself. Tell me, what was the purpose of this? Now is not the time for jokes: an innocent man died last night!!!

As for your hostility towards Fea: it's completely justified. She's mad, I tells ye. String her up!

[littlemanpoet]

Pardon my penchant, phantom I can't help it.
Nor can you if you'll let me tell it. :D
And Eomer, maybe you just just mistaked,
but maybe ol' Sir Freud's not so baked.
Don't think I didn't notice you try
to cast my suspicion as fooler-eye. :p

And werewolves can let their guard down and make vital mistakes.

And did you make one?
Hmm? Gotta won-
der, you rapscallient
excuse for an innocent!

And I gotta say
that Peredhil Féa
is getting more convincing
with each passing posting.

[Kath]

But Eomer, with no evidence to speak of whatsoever except for a hidden message from the Seer somewhere around you have to use any evidence available to you whether hard or soft.

[Firefoot]

Phantom has called Fea's statements absurd (and I rather agree with that), but wouldn't they also be absurd things for a werewolf to say? What kind of idiot werewolf would say something so very incriminating? Especially this early when we have naught but virtually blind accusations to go by?

Unless, of course, she made a mistake, and I won't discount that possibility.

But I'd like to hear from some more people before making any serious accusations.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

What "sketchy looking guy"? Where is he? Can anyone point him out?
*points to the guy that's trying his best to knowingly kill innocent people and make it look like he's doing it for their own good*

How is it that I am making myself look guilty by trying to make people see that killing off people that we know are innocent will not help us in the long run? Isn't it better to take a chance and maybe kill a werewolf, instead of give up all hope at this stage of the proceedings and immediately start killing off the good guys?

How is it that people are agreeing with the phantom's hair-brained "let's just get volunteers to die" idea? The idea is that we don't want innocent people to die! It doesn't matter if the person is a seer or if the person is an identity-less villager, that person is still innocent, and we aren't supposed to be killing the good guys!

As a matter of fact, it is likely that the wolves will purposefully behave in such a way that they appear to be the LEAST SKETCHY. Duh.

Unless they are playing us with a mult-layered bluff, dullard. Where is the best place to hide? Out in the open.

Perhaps she is sacrificing herself and agrees with my plan after all?
God, tp, what part of "This is the stupidest idea I've ever heard" don't you understand?

At this point I am almost willing to abandon my plan and lynch Fea just for being extremely silly.
And at this point, I'm almost entirely willing to lynch the phantom, just because he's so insistant that we kill innocent villagers on purpose. What kind of innocent person does that?

As for your hostility towards Fea: it's completely justified. She's mad, I tells ye. String her up!
Either you're both insane, or you're both werewolves. Quite honestly, I hope you both die, just because it would make me feel better. Tell me how it's justifiable to be hostile toward somebody who is trying to keep her village from making a terrible (and really stupid) mistake?

Push my buttons more, tp, Eomer, and I'm going to start a campaign against you. What in the world has happened when logic means killing innocent people while werewolves run free?

[the phantom]

Tell me, what was the purpose of this?
What, my poem post? I just couldn't resist. :p
As for your hostility towards Fea: it's completely justified.
Unfortunately, she always acts like this, so who knows if there is an actual reason for it?
And I gotta say
that Peredhil Féa
is getting more convincing
with each passing posting.
I sincerely hope you aren't saying that her arguments are convincing in some way other than convincing you that she is off her rocker.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

I am still unclear as to what advantage we gain from having the seer around. Besides the novelty, of course.

Nice poem LMP, living up to you're name.

Good observation lmp, but isn't the aim of the game to find werewolves and not make me look like an idiot?

Nicely put. The Downs is a friendly sight where we should all try to be nice to each other. Even if we are about to get eaten by the W-Ws. :eek:

[Celuien]

Volunteers for lynching??? :eek: That's one line that won't be too long.

Something else that's occured to me with this plan is that once someone volunteers, they've effectively given the biggest "Look - I'm an innocent" sign that they could possibly put forward. I don't know about the rest of the village, but I would be very hesitant to lynch a volunteer. And that could provide cover for the wolves if they see it as a way to declare innocence and also see a low probability of the rest of the town taking up the offer. Furthermore, if we follow through on lynching volunteers, an innocent does volunteer every day, and then is lynched every day, it just depletes the population of villagers and keeps us from lynching a real wolf.

Féa's saying that gifted villagers are expendable doesn't quite sit well with me. It's not enough to raise my suspicions with any certainty though...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I accidentally said outright that I am a werewolf with a malevolent eye? You rascal lmp!

By mistakes I referred to the trusting of fallacious reasoning. I did not refer to switching my 'her's' and my 'my's' in a tale including 'her' and 'me'.

But I know all about your trickery, o yes! I remember the japes we used to pull in our younger days. Remember that goat we set loose in Evisse's garden? Those were the days....

*ahem*

Anywho, you really haven't lived life yet, if you ain't got no regrets. And I am regretting my lazy use of possessive pronouns....

Why do I think that someone will vote for me on that basis....

[the phantom]

How is it that I am making myself look guilty by trying to make people see that killing off people that we know are innocent will not help us in the long run?
You are obviously missing the entire point of the plan. The entire point of the plan is to help the village "in the long run". My plan accepts that innocents will die early and attempts to at least preserve our gifted villagers. That is most definitely helpful in the long run.
Isn't it better to take a chance and maybe kill a werewolf, instead of give up all hope at this stage of the proceedings and immediately start killing off the good guys?
NO!!!

Sheesh. I've already demonstrated the statistical disadvantage of attempting to randomly select a wolf. I think you need to go back and read my first few posts again.
The idea is that we don't want innocent people to die!
BUT IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN ANYWAY AT THE BEGINNING!!! The most we can do is pick which innocent dies.

What is so difficult to understand about this???

You either have poor math and reasoning skills, or you are a foolish wolf.
Where is the best place to hide? Out in the open.
True, and who has been the most openly guilty so far? You!
What in the world has happened when logic means killing innocent people while werewolves run free?
Your arguments have already demonstrated your weak grip on things that involve logic, so I don't think you should be trying to comment on logic (or lack thereof) in any situation.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I would like to point out that the werewolves are probably laughing heartily at this bicker.

[littlemanpoet]

Off her rocker? Well, not exactly.
You're both loudmouths, matter of factly.
Maybe you're both werewolves and creating this fuss
to distract the rest of us
to throw us off the (hint hint) scent.
Or maybe you're both innocent.
Who's to say?
Who knows how you'll play?
One thing's sure,
it's that Eomer
made a word slip
which may be a mere blip
or it may be evidence
of his malfeasance (sp?).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I now congratulate lmp on joining Kath in the 'silly serious' club.

Actually, he's ahead of Kath in the suspicion list. Why would he keep referring to that obviously honest mistake? He's not stupid, so....

[the phantom]

I am still unclear as to what advantage we gain from having the seer around.
You've got to be kidding.

I'm not even going to answer that, Hookbill. Somebody else do it.
Something else that's occured to me with this plan is that once someone volunteers, they've effectively given the biggest "Look - I'm an innocent" sign that they could possibly put forward. I don't know about the rest of the village, but I would be very hesitant to lynch a volunteer. And that could provide cover for the wolves if they see it as a way to declare innocence and also see a low probability of the rest of the town taking up the offer.
Excellent observations.

That is why, if people like the plan, we must follow through on it. If the wolves think "They won't really do it once we step forward" then they will- and people will think it makes them innocent.
Furthermore, if we follow through on lynching volunteers, an innocent does volunteer every day, and then is lynched every day, it just depletes the population of villagers and keeps us from lynching a real wolf.
We would only do it the first two days.
Féa's saying that gifted villagers are expendable doesn't quite sit well with me.
No kidding.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay, I'll admit that saying the Seer is expendable is a little hasty of me. Wait... no I won't.

Right now, we have a Seer. He or she knows somebody's identity. Chances are high that he or she knows the identity of somebody that, quite frankly, we don't care about.

So we'll kill an innocent today. The wolves will kill an innocent tonight. There's a chance, however small, that the wolves are going to kill our Seer tonight any how, unless of course he or she comes out and says "Hey everybody, I'm the Seer. Ranger, you need to protect me tonight." In that case, the wolves have the chance of slaughtering the Ranger instead, and then the Seer is up for grabs the next night.

Or the wolves swipe the hunter, and two people die. Or, of course, the wolves swipe one of tp's expendable innocents, and apparently nobody cares, right?

My point is, that, probability for day one aside, your numbers aren't going to help us win the game, because there is the human error quotient. The Seer could be killed tonight, and then you wasted a life for nothing.

Any how, since nobody is going to listen to me about my opinion on tp's colossally stupid kill-plan, here's a brain-teaser.

Neither Anguirel nor Lalaith have posted yet, and yet Eomer's accused them both. Twice. Why, Eomer?

[littlemanpoet]

Obviously honest, you say.
Okay,
that may be.
We'll see.

Yes phantom's plan has more merit
if we limit it
to two days
but hey
don't look at me
to offer to all of thee
myself to volunteer.
It's clear
to me of course that I'm no wolf
but only in the pudding is there proof.
All right, it's supper time
I'm making sure to get mine.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I would like to point out that the werewolves are probably laughing heartily at this bicker.
Unless one of the bickering duo is a werewolf. *glares at the phantom*

Okay... you've got to listen to me. I would rather try to catch a werewolf and screw up, than freely give up the chance to even try.

I don't care if an "innocent" steps forward to die. I will not be voting for whoever that person is. I'll take my chances with luck and try to kill somebody that actually is supposed to die.

[the phantom]

Chances are high that he or she knows the identity of somebody that, quite frankly, we don't care about.
Wrong.

If the seer is able to identify someone as being innocent, it is extremely valuable if you know how to use the information.

If the number of proven innocents ever equals the number of wolves then the villagers automatically win if they behave correctly.

I don't expect you to see how that works. It's a bit complicated and tough to figure out at first, but it's true.
There's a chance, however small, that the wolves are going to kill our Seer tonight any how, unless of course he or she comes out and says "Hey everybody, I'm the Seer. Ranger, you need to protect me tonight." In that case, the wolves have the chance of slaughtering the Ranger instead, and then the Seer is up for grabs the next night.... The Seer could be killed tonight, and then you wasted a life for nothing.
The chance of the seer or Ranger getting killed during the night will not be affected by who we kill today, so no, the life will not have been wasted.

If they kill the seer then they kill the seer. There's nothing we can do about that.
I'll take my chances with luck
Luck over a more statistically sound plan?

Typical seventeen year old. :rolleyes:

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Why have I accused Anguirel and Lalaith?

Hmm.....

As this appears so blindingly obvious to me, I'm not going to answer you directly, at least not for a while. I am going to wait until every other person speaks (or at least most other people).

For fear of wasting my time. :rolleyes:

You wouldn't grasp at such feeble straws for no reason, now would you Miss Fea? This is precisely the fallacious reasoning I talked of earlier. From my perspective, you are probably innocent: don't ruin that by taking the bait meant for werewolves.

[the phantom]

Why have I accused Anguirel and Lalaith?

Hmm.....

As this appears so blindingly obvious to me, I'm not going to answer you directly, at least not for a while. I am going to wait until every other person speaks (or at least most other people).

I know what you are doing.

Good call.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I think it would have been, had a certain someone not called me on it.

But anyway........that Nilpaurion Felagund always struck me as a troublemaker. :smokin: Let him speak!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

If the number of proven innocents ever equals the number of wolves then the villagers automatically win if they behave correctly.

I don't expect you to see how that works. It's a bit complicated and tough to figure out at first, but it's true.
Just because I don't like your plan doesn't mean that I don't understand it, or that I don't think it has a number of merits. So don't bother with the condescending and infuriating "I don't expect you to understand" and the "typical seventeen year old" stuff.

Clarify this part of it for me: the Seer (or whoever else it is in your head) knows that these three are innocent. How does he or she convey this information to the rest of the innocents without the wolves finding out also?

The chance of the seer or Ranger getting killed during the night will not be affected by who we kill today
Sure it will, math-boy. If we take one innocent out of the pool, then there are less people for the wolves to kill, thereby increasing their chance of randomly selecting someone we want to keep. If you need smaller numbers, here are some.

There are three fish in the pond, a blue fish, a red fish, and an orange fish. The fisherman is guaranteed to catch one. He has a 1:3 chance of catching the blue fish. If we take out the orange fish and leave it on the shore to die or something equally gross, then there are only two fish left. It means that the fisherman now has a 1:2 chance of getting the blue fish. Capiche?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

You wouldn't grasp at such feeble straws for no reason, now would you Miss Fea?
I never do anything without reason. And since it was "bait", and a set intentionally, how can you call it grasping at a straw? I noticed something odd, and called you on it. What's wrong with that? M'boy, m'boy... if you want to set a trap, you need to be more subtle. And at least come up with a lie when you get called on it, instead of saying "I just changed my mind about your innocence because you pointed out my mistake." It's the same thing you did to LMP. Because he found a [Freudian?] slip and is teasing you about it, he's guilty. Way to play.

[the phantom]

How does he or she convey this information to the rest of the innocents without the wolves finding out also?
The seer would have to step forward and expose his/her identity. But there is a point that, if reached, it won't really matter if the wolves know who the seer is.
So don't bother with the condescending and infuriating...
What about my "arrogant healer" role don't you understand? :p

And now let's look at your math skills...
Sure it will, math-boy. If we take one innocent out of the pool, then there are less people for the wolves to kill, thereby increasing their chance of randomly selecting someone we want to keep. If you need smaller numbers, here are some.

There are three fish in the pond, a blue fish, a red fish, and an orange fish. The fisherman is guaranteed to catch one. He has a 1:3 chance of catching the blue fish. If we take out the orange fish and leave it on the shore to die or something equally gross, then there are only two fish left. It means that the fisherman now has a 1:2 chance of getting the blue fish. Capiche?
I can see how this might seem logical to you if you don't think too hard, but there is a huge mistake in your little fish-catching analogy.

You are assuming that it is possible to fish without one of the fish being taken out. That is not the case today. You said-
If we take one innocent out of the pool, then there are less people for the wolves to kill
But what you forgot is that someone will be taken out of the pool NO MATTER WHAT, whether my plan is instituted or not! So your little fish thing doesn't apply at all.

Don't try to beat me at math.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Hold your horses, only fools rush in, when in Rome and a couple of other useful proverbs! You are causing me a headache. I have my own theories, too, but I won't say more yet nor give any reasons because that would lead me to "an incredibly boring death". A part of me agrees with phantom's plan but it'll be useless if we lose our seer within next couple of days or nights. We have a 17.6% chance of picking a wolf. Well, the Seer has 18.75% chance to pick a culprit in case s/he didn't dream of a wolf last night - otherwise the odds are a tad better... But the problem is that we wouldn't probably believe him/her anyway and we'd lynch him/her as a wolf.

There are just too many "what ifs". Sigh. I'm off to bed now. Please, more reasoning and less fighting. And let's wait for those who have remained silent.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

No. See, we already know that a fish is coming out. That's a freaking given. If we take out our own fish, we definately help the wolves. If we take an educated guess, we probably help the wolves. There's quite the difference there, being that if we guess right, we aren't helping them. There's that margin of hope that we can't over-look.

Don't try to beat you at math? Fine. If you agree to stop trying to beat me. Period.

And did you realize that we're stealing the show? How's about a temporary truce (you're still dumb :p) so that we can force some of the others to take action?

[the phantom]

There's that margin of hope that we can't over-look.
But with that margin of hope comes an even larger chance of giving the wolves a huge boost, since as I said before, there is a greater chance of lynching a gifted villager than there is of lynching a wolf.
you're still dumb
*sigh*

You realize that only someone dumb would call the phantom dumb? :p
How's about a temporary truce so that we can force some of the others to take action?
As long as you promise to behave yourself. ;)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It was bait. It was bait for the werewolves. Werewolves who are intentionally trying to sway the votes and by that means lynch an innocent. Why should you be desparate to take the opportunity to set me up? It was designed so that a werewolf may set me up, not an innocent. Said werewolf would be clutching at straws. Any innocent would have no reason to go anywhere near the straws. By the way, (couldn't help but notice) you did point out my accusations while the phantom was grilling you, despite the fact that I had accused Ang about 30 posts ago. Did you just 'notice' it there and then, yes?

At least come up with a lie when called on it? I don't see the point: everyone can see the game now anyway. I'll lie when it suits me, not when every werewolf has realised what I was plotting. As for subtlety, it seemed subtle enough to fox you. You should have just played along and then maybe, just maybe, we would have a trap for the wolves. Why should you be opposed to this trap? I mean, you are already so opposed to the phantom's. Can you offer any worthwhile suggestions in catching a wolf? Or do you just want to hang those who are trying?

Apparently I said something along the lines of "I just changed my mind about your innocence because you pointed out my mistake".

Ok, ok, this is amusing. Please refer to the mistake of mine that you pointed out. I don't recall it. lmp's point (and teasing) was noted and laughed at. It is his repetition of the point that I am wary of. Why should I be called on the slip over and over? If you see that as a werewolf's slip then suit yourself. Just remember to look at the context of the post; you will see (hopefully) that it was an honest mistake.

Oh, and I didn't say that lmp was guilty. I merely pointed out what I believe to be suspicious behaviour.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Well, what a tangle. I'm not sure what to make of some of this...
But I will place myself firmly against the idea that one of us innocent villagers volunteers to be lynched. As said before, if it's such a great idea, why doesn't Phantom volunteer.
Also, I still don't understand how a guaranteed innocent death is any better for us than risking lynching an innocent. I personally would rather lynch one of my fellow innocent villagers accidentally, without having them volunteer. If we lynch by vote, we at least have some chance of actually picking a wolf. If we lynch a volunteer, we're guaranteed to lose an innocent, therefore lessening the villager-to-wolf ratio. I bet they'd laugh in glee.
I vote for at least trying to lynch a suspicious character rather than lynching a known innocent.
There may be a "statistical disadvantage" as Phantom calls it, but to my mind, a chance is still a chance.

EDIT: In fact, we're guaranteed to lose two innocents before we get to vote again, if we take Phantom's method: one would die and one would be killed at Night. On one hand, we definitely won't lose one of our important villagers, such as a seer or a guardian during the day, but at Night, anything can happen. I'd say we have about the same chance of lynching someone important as the wolves do of killing one tonight. It would be a shame to lose a seer or guardian or hunter this early in the game, but I prefer to take the route that provides us with a possibility of lynching a wolf instead of definitely losing an innocent villager. If we vote, we at least have a chance of success.

[the phantom]

As said before, if it's such a great idea, why doesn't Phantom volunteer.
You're right. That was "said before", and it was also answered before (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=394756&postcount=8), so it was rather pointless for you to repeat, unless you are merely trying to plant a bug in people's ears that I should be the one to die. But why would you want to do that? Hmm...
If we lynch a volunteer, we're guaranteed to lose an innocent, therefore lessening the villager-to-wolf ratio. I bet they'd laugh in glee.
We're going to be lessening the villager-to-wolf ratio even if we don't follow my plan (odds are).
There may be a "statistical disadvantage" as Phantom calls it, but to my mind, a chance is still a chance.
So you are willing to do something despite a statistical disadvantage? That doesn't sound too smart.
On one hand, we definitely won't lose one of our important villagers, such as a seer or a guardian during the day
Yes, that is the plan's strong point.
but at Night, anything can happen
That is always the case, plan or no plan, so that doesn't really matter.

Also, if the seer is killed during the night, all we will have to do is look back at his/her posts to see what hints were given and we will at least have a bit of guidance.

[the phantom]

I was going to hold my tongue on this for a bit because of the temporary truce Fea and I have, but I feel the need to say it after Azalia's comments.

WHY IN THE WORLD would you ask someone why they aren't volunteering? It's a stupid thing to do, because obviously the best reason not to volunteer would be if you are a gifted villager, which is something you certainly do not want to admit to being. There is not an answer to that question that could possibly have a positive effect on the village, but it could certainly have a negative one.

If I would have answered "Well, um, because I just really think there are better choices than me", then the obvious implication would be that I was a gifted villager and the werewolves would kill me the following night.

Fortunately when I wrote up my requirements for volunteering I included the notion that the best volunteers would be inactive ones. Sure, it is a good thought in and of itself, but the primary reason I included it was to provide a reasonable answer to the question "Why aren't you volunteering?" in case the question was asked (directed at me or anyone else).

You see, I figured that question would be asked by someone before it was ever asked, and I also thought that asking the question might be a sign of a werewolf.

To my mind, Fea and Azalia asking why I haven't volunteered is quite suspicious. It's almost as if they are hoping to trick me into outing myself as a gifted villager.

Why else would you ask?

An innocent would know to hold his/her tongue so as not to risk exposing a gifted villager.

[Lalaith]

Good evening fellow villagers. I'm sorry not to have joined in the discussion before, but even on such a terrible and tragic day as this, my first duty was to my babes who were fretful and needed tending. Now they are all sleeping soundly and I can share my thoughts with you all.
I agree that on this first day, we will almost certainly be lynching at random. But to knowingly kill an innocent - surely not. Is it not our humanity that seperates us from the werewolves? If we sink to their level in order to defeat them, have they not won, anyway?
I note my name has cropped up as being under suspicion. I accept that with the random element of today's vote, any one us could end up dead at the hands of the rest and that one may be myself: there is little that any of us can say to each other at this stage to convince of our innocence.
I wondered what lay behind the hints of the phantom? I asked him to beware, because I felt he was leading us to infer that he was a 'gifted' villager, and thus picked up by the werewolves as their next victim. But I see that while I was composing my thoughts he has pre-empted this observation.

[Lalaith]

We know this:
There are three working together towards a common purpose. They know who they are and who the enemy is.
There are two also working together towards a common purpose. They know who they are, but they don't know who the enemy is.
There is one person on his own, who now knows if one other person is a friend or an enemy.
There are the rest - eleven - blundering around in the dark, knowing our own innocence but no-one else's.

Can anyone trace any threads of common purpose from the posts so far?

[Saurreg]

Alas for poor shortie! I will surely miss him and his irrelevant information on the woodland diet of werewolves when human flesh is unavailable and our ongoing debate on the feasibility of acquiring werewolf pelts.

For shame! For shame!

[littlemanpoet]

I've washed my hands after supper.

Evidence. Evidence. Evidence. Yes, Eomer, it was slim evidence at best, but evidence is about all we really will have to go on, besides luck or a plan (if enough people are willing to follow it). You certainly do seem to come across as one of the innocents, but wouldn't that be what we should expect out of a smart werewolf? Not saying that you are, but not saying that you aren't.

Getting back to the phantom's plan. With the two day limit it makes a lot of sense to me, but there's just one little problem. Well, no, a big problem. Nobody's volunteering. I'm certainly not going to! I want to stay alive as long as I can! Who wouldn't? So like I said, it looks like a good plan except for that one glaring flaw.

[Oddwen]

A sad day indeed -
That our friend had to bleed
In defiance of his creed
So bid him godspeed
As we, out of need
Search out beasts hairy and flea'd
Kick 'em in the knee!
This story ain't twee -
So, I beseech thee,
Pray that I won't think up more rhymes.


Indeed, verily forsooth and etc., conundrum after conundrum present themselves like lemmings.

As to THE phantom's plan - I think it has merit. On one hand killing an innocent will increase the odds in the Villager's favor, yet on the other we're not killing werewolves and they're matching our loss with their own kill.

Would this plan work if it were not done in the first two days? Could we go back to it in the later stages with the same effect?

[Celuien]

Well, if The Phantom's plan is only applied for a couple of days, it could work. But there's still the no volunteers problem that's been pointed out frequently. I'm not planning to volunteer - lynching is an unpleasant business, particularly for the one being lynched. :p Plus, I'm not totally comfortable with lynching a known innocent for many of the reasons given above (reducing debate/chances to analyze voting patterns and providing unintentional cover for wolves). Although this does seem less relevant early in the process where most of us are pointing blindly anyway. Later on I'm afraid it could spell disaster.

Fea doesn't seem as suspicious as I was starting to think earlier. Just, umm, noisy. :D Not particularly werewolfish. But I don't know - it's too late for my muddled brain to work properly. More in the morning...

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

To my mind, Fea and Azaelia asking why I haven't volunteered is quite suspicious. It's almost as if they are hoping to trick me into outing myself as a gifted villager.

Why else would you ask?

An innocent would know to hold his/her tongue so as not to risk exposing a gifted villager.

I was not asking you to volunteer seriously...I just had noticed that you were arguing particularly strongly without seeming ready to support your plan fully yourself. I'm not trying to frame you up. I'm not trying to get you lynched. It's just a fact that no one wants to die.

I am not working with Fea or trying to trick you into admitting that you are a gifted villager, Phantom...I don't even think that you are, just at this stage. It's hard to know anything about anyone.

As to another thing you said about me going with a statistical disadvantage not being logical... As I've said before, I think that completely having no chance of lynching a werewolf while at the same time having the certainty of killing an innocent villager is just not that great a situation. Either way we choose, we're at a disadvantage.

Also, I just don't think it particularly realistic that any villager, innocent or otherwise, is going to volunteer to die on the first Day. I certainly haven't seen anyone raising their hands.

And you seem to be suspicious of me. If I was a wolf, I'd be keeping my head down and just watching with glee as you lynch an innocent villager without any help from me. Obviously, that's not what I'm doing.

I simply see a small chance of catching a werewolf as being better than no chance at all, in spite of the risks. That's just my opinion. Perhaps we'll have to agree to disagree, since we're basically saying the same arguments over and over.

[Saurreg]

Tis a sad day here in Storyland. But well water must be drawn, chickens fed, cows milked and foxes skinned; life must go on.

Right, on with the show.

I am surprised that our resident seadog Eomer has already set his sights on not one but two fellow villagers without any rational explanation at all and when LMP pointed this out, he quickly threw in FN as another suspect. Was he drunk when he made those statements? Or does he know something that we do not? I do not know but I shall be keeping my eyes wide open.

The Phantom must be commended for trying to come out with a sensible plan to safeguard the wider interests of the village. Note that I said "trying" 'cuz in this ole trapper's eyes, that hare-brained scheme hasn't got any darned legs to stand on - much like those funny-looking raccoons I processed last week. Selfless morality is lacking in these parts and if we go back the good ole tradition of death by mob; at least we stand a chance (no matter how slender) of hanging a darn man-wolf.

Therefore I submit that we stick to the lynching. Dead wolf on the scaffold and a major contribution to the study of their darned kind (especially whether or not they remain furry after death). What's there not to like? But nevertheless The Phantom deserves alittle praise for his idea. I'd give him a complimentary gold star if I had one but I don't. Then again, I've never had much gold on me.

[the phantom]

Nobody's volunteering.
But there's still the no volunteers
Selfless morality is lacking in these parts
You are all correct, of course. I imagine no one will be willing to step forward, but there's always a chance.
I am not working with Fea or trying to trick you into admitting that you are a gifted villager, Phantom...I don't even think that you are
Don't try and take the wolves' eyes off of me, or anyone else for that matter. Though I'd like to live till tomorrow, if the wolves kill me tonight that would mean our seer would have the opportunity to dream another dream, so don't openly suspect that I am not gifted. If you really think I am a plain old villager, you should want the wolves to suspect that I am gifted so they will kill me and thus leave the seer, ranger, and such alive.

Now, I know it was just a passing statement, Azalia, so I'm not saying you made some sort of case for me not being gifted- this is mainly just a warning to everyone to help in the future.
I'd give him a complimentary gold star if I had one but I don't.
Well, we healers have plenty of gold, so how about I give you a gold star and you can give it back to me? :p

By the way, I have some other thoughts besides my plan but it would be best for me to hold them for now.

[the phantom]

I'm feeling quite tired after all this talking. I'm going to go take a nap.

I'll see you all a bit later.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

*spit* I'm innocent. I'll volunteer.

Volunteer for what, may I ask?

I dunno. "Volunteerin'" sounds mighty fun. *cough*

By de whey, Eomer, thanks for keeping my role alive, pardner. Someone suspicious ain't one if he ain't suspicious, if y'all know wat I mean. *spit*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Why would Eomer point to one person?

Why two?

Or why any at all?

Why would the phantom suggest such daring, excellent, yet glaringly flawed plan? And why would Fea and Azaelia violently oppose it if nobody would be volunteering anyway?

And Saurreg, who is this FN?? :confused:

Why ask this questions? Are you trying to point something out, but are too scared to be seen pointing?

Hush, alter-ego. You're not supposed to be here. I'm the only one who joined, remember? I don't see your name on tgwbs's list, don't I?

[Evisse the Blue]

Simple. Neat. And wrong.
:p

Looking back, and if I had brains enough to count correctly, I see that we have 5 against the plan, and 5 basically agreeing with the plan. This tells us...absolutely nothing... Except that everyone is pretty much as confused as I am. Even those that didn't agree see this one major flaw that nobody will volunteer. Oops, wait, someone did volunteer. That means we found our scapegoat, did we? Who better to lynch than the suspicious guy? ;)

Would this plan work if it were not done in the first two days? Could we go back to it in the later stages with the same effect?
What would be the point of that? I understood the only benefit of this plan is that it can be used in the beginning stages when we have not much to be suspicious of. :confused: Although, some suspicions are clearly forming, even at this stage *looks at the web of accusations, insults, slips. etc*

Well, I'm off to make the pizza, y'all must be hungry after all this fighting. Except those of you who feasted last night, that is.

[Lalaith]

This is hard. I must be away from the village now, and won't be back until the end of the vote.
I had hoped that by now some votes would have been cast. To be the first to name a lynching victim is a difficult thing, both morally and strategically.

Like Evisse, I am confused by many things. Was Feanor's and phantom's fight indeed a smokescreen, as lmp suggests? On the other hand, why were Eomer and phantom so keen to label our artist crazy? She made mostly good sense to me. And what of the fence-sitters, who backed phantom's plan and whose only objections were pragmatic (no-one volunteering) rather than moral?
Phantom's strategy is based on a risk-adverse principle - killing an innocent as a safeguard because the chances of lynching a gifted villager being too high. Yet his own behaviour has been the opposite of risk-adverse. He has been running the risk - if of course he is himself a non-werewolf - of being identified, rightly or wrongly, by the werewolves as a gifted villager. Of course, our healer is a clever and complicated person, and so contradictory behaviour from him is less suspicious than from someone else. But still....
I will have another cup of coffee before I leave, and mull over what scarce evidence we have so far, and try to pluck up the courage to cast my vote.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

For every complex problem, there is a solution that is
Simple. Neat. And wrong.

Only too true.

Phantom, if lynching the gifted villager is dangerous, is not lynching a werewolf more dangerous? The longer we leave them to roam, the less chance of winning we have. If we do get rid of the gifted one, then yeah, its a set back, but we'll just have to work a little harder, look deeper and use the large thing between our ears.

[Lalaith]

Curses. With so many strong opinion formers in this village, I never thought it would fall to me to be the first to stick my head above the parapet. But circumstances sadly dictate it. The lady of the manor was last night blessed with issue and I must away to collect my new charge, and will not return until after the lynching. I know I could simply not vote at all. But we village women fought a bitter battle for the vote, and it would be wrong not to use this hard-won democratic right. Well, here goes.

There is little chance of lynching a guilty person today and this weighs heavily on my conscience.
To help me in my choice I have split the village into three groups.
There are those who have been completely silent: Anguirel, Esgallhugwen.
There are those who have been most outspoken: phantom, lmp, Feanor, Eomer.
There are those who come somewhere inbetween: Azaelia, Celuien, dancing spawn, Evisse, Firefoot , Hookbill, Kath, Nilp Felagund, Oddwen, Saurreg and myself.
Now, I don't think any of this is necessarily significant. Personal circumstances and personality differences come into play here, I know, as much as innocence or guilt. But I tend to agree with phantom's point that a noisy person can be useful to have around for a while, whether they are wolf or human. The silent group should have a chance to speak, so I will pick a name, more or less at random, from the middle group. As I didn't like phantom's volunteer victim plan, I will pick someone who was more inclined to support it: +++KATH.
I am sorry, and I hold my nominee no particular grudge, but someone had to be named.

[Celuien]

The time for a vote is drawing near, and I'm still so lost.

After consideration, my final vote on the phantom's plan will have to be a no. I think it was a rational enough plan, but I don't see enough of a risk/benefit trade-off to justify going after a known innocent (not to repeat myself too much), even with the volunteer that we now have.

And now a quick disclaimer: the following opinions and theories are related solely to events on day one. Future deviations from these theories should be taken in the context of the day on which they occur and not necessarily considered flip-floppin or werewolf-like behavior. :)

At this point, the phantom, Fea and Eomer are at the bottom of my suspect list. The plan put forward by the phantom does seem to have been put forward with the interest of the village at heart, even if I can't agree with it. Fea's actions in the argument look to be more like debate than trying to set anyone up for lynching.

Eomer has been mentioned as a suspect based on his slip of the tongue earlier, but I don't think it makes him a wolf. If it's a genuine mistake, it's one that a smart wolf wouldn't be likely to make since they have to be guarded. It's too easy for us to pick up on something small as an excuse for lynching on the first day. If it's intentional, it's also un-wolf-like because it's too obvious a double-blind for a wolf, again leading to lynching. But I can think of a good reason for an innocent to put a baited slip like that out for discussion.

I'm not sure what to think of lmp, but I like the poetry. And I think it's a good idea to keep louder participants around for a while.

This, of course, leaves me with a wide field from which to pick my vote. I have some other theories as well, but this isn't a good time to put them forward. I need more data, and I'm afraid of causing confusion or aiding the wolves if I put my idea out too soon, whether I'm right or wrong. But RL is calling at the moment so further discussion and my vote will have to wait for a bit.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Well, a happy occurence it is to wake up alive. My suspicion of the phantom is lessening, although I do not know why. His logic battles ceaselessly with my own. I'll explain more in about an hour.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

One vote for Kath, eh? Hmm, I had pointed her out earlier but I'm not sure I'd like to vote for her. Sure, she called my mistake 'slim evidence' but evidence nonetheless. I would have hoped that a sensible villager could see that it was an honest mistake.

It's very hard to describe but I am sure that there's no way of seeing wolf-tracks in that mistake. I was telling a tale from yesteryear (not even a serious one at that, as has now come into the open) and I mixed up my words. I cannot discuss technicalities of language as my knowledge is not great enough. I'm just going to have to trust the judgment of the village. But I will not hide from it. I will not sweep it under the carpet. If you want to seriously debate the slip then please speak.

Thanks for the vote of confidence Celuien.

I see littlemanpoet has backtracked somewhat. Wise, I think.

Nilpaurion Felagund made little of my accusation. He's a jovial fellow and low on my suspicion list.

Lalaith is perhaps a stranger case. She didn't use my name at all despite my harsh accusation against her.

[Evisse the Blue]

I did some more thinking on the phantom's plan. I'm not good with numbers, so I'll stay out of that department.
Now, I think the phantom may have presented this plan in good faith. However
I'm quite astonished at the fact that he actually expected anyone of us to volunteer to be lynched. As far as I know, none of our fellow villagers is suicidal, or a martyr. And everyone of us serves a purpose, for instance, if you kill me, who's gonna bake cookies for you lot?
Let's suppose one of us did volunteer, today and on the following day, and they'd be done away with like sacrificial lambs. What are the rest of us going to do? Just sit back and watch? Inocents and werewolves alike? Come on, the werewolves would probably be doing their nails (claws), watching us do their work for them, and doing or saying nothing to incriminate them. And let's say the Seer does get to dream three nights in a row. What are the chances of him/her dreaming of a werewolf especially if there are no suspicions whatsoever to base their dreams on? And their actually dreaming of a werewolf would be the only benefit we could draw from this situation. If they only dream of inocents, there'll be no way for them to present us with this information and they'll die in vain, without providing even that little support.
Also the Shiriffs and the Hunter especially will have by that third day when the voluntary lynchings will stop, very little to go on, so they won't be able to do much to help the village. And by the third night, when the villager population decreases significantly, the wolves would have increased odds of doing away with those important people, just when they would have begun to make themselves useful.
So this is how I support my initial disagreement of the plan.

I don't dismiss the possibility that the 'plan' was a bluff orchestrated by the phantom and Fea (they certainly seem like the types, these two ;)) but even if they did that, I think it may have been put forth to study our reactions to it, and not because they're werewolves trying to snare us. As I said before, the plan was doomed from the start because no one in their right mind was going to volunteer.

My suspects at the moment are: Oddwen (her brief statement quite unsettled me), Imp (way too merry at such a sad time - the nerve! :p, was ready to support phantom's plan but then also supported Fea, and picks obsesively on Eomer without anything to go on but that over discussed Freudian slip). I'd also be inclined to suspect Lalaith because her voting on the basis of who was more/less vocal seems a bit superficial to me, and even more so, randomly picking out of an artificial category....hmm. But I can somehow understand her confusion because there I'm in complete darkness as well.
If I were to cast people into categories, I'd do it on a different criterion, (though I won't guarantee for its objectiveness); that criterion being: are you really saying something, or just making small talk. (Small talk can take up lots of space too, so being very vocal hardly means in my view, being inocent).
It's this blurryness of sides I find unsettling.
I won't hurry to cast a vote yet because I want to hear from Anguirel and Esgalhugwen so I can get a complete picture.

[Celuien]

Okay, just a few more things...

Right now, I'm leaning toward a vote for Oddwen. Granted, she's only made one comment, but there's something a little odd here:


As to THE phantom's plan - I think it has merit. On one hand killing an innocent will increase the odds in the Villager's favor, yet on the other we're not killing werewolves and they're matching our loss with their own kill.

Would this plan work if it were not done in the first two days? Could we go back to it in the later stages with the same effect?

I'm uneasy about her suggestion of using the plan later - that's exactly the time when using this method is worst for the villagers. Unfortunately, I know that this is as much a shot in the dark as anything else.

Where are Anguirel and Esgallhugwen?

EDIT: Cross posted with Evisse.

[Firefoot]

I think Lalaith has the right idea of voting for someone on that in-between list, as I highly doubt at this point that any of our loud-mouths are werewolves. From there, I think Evisse has the right idea of looking for the people who have talked but not contributed. This would seem like a good way for a werewolf to hide in the middle of everything.

Before I vote I'll have to review the thread more carefully - I'll let y'all know what I think then.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Well, a happy occurence it is to wake up alive. My suspicion of the phantom is lessening, although I do not know why. His logic battles ceaselessly with my own. I'll explain more in about an hour.
Okay... It's been "about an hour" and me not suspecting the phantom is... I dunno. I'm moody. Right now my mood is saying "Well, when I offered up a truce (temporary though it may be), he didn't fight me on it, so that's a point or two in his favor." Mind you, I still hate his sacrifice plan. All probability aside, you're still killing innocent people. That just doesn't sit well with me.

I don't dismiss the possibility that the 'plan' was a bluff orchestrated by the phantom and Fea (they certainly seem like the types, these two ;)) but even if they did that, I think it may have been put forth to study our reactions to it, and not because they're werewolves trying to snare us

What a brilliant idea. The two of us, planning a very public arguement that goes almost entirely against our usual "I agree, phantom ol' pal" and "Fea's right, as usual" discourses. A pair of werewolves, making it disturbingly obvious that we both want to save lives, we just hate the way each other plan on doing it. Or... not. What people forget is that we PM all the time, and we argue like siblings. You should have seen the stuff about lab dissections... :rolleyes: This whole huge debate? There's no bluff, there's no layer subtly hidden beneath, no hidden agendas. I think he's got a flawed, sketchy, morally uncertain plan, and I'm telling him so, and at the same time, trying to keep people from following it.

And I agree with Evisse... we need to hear more from the quiet ones. That's why tp and I stopped arguing for a little while.

[the phantom]

Who to lynch? That is the question.
My suspicion of the phantom is lessening
At this point, the phantom, Fea and Eomer are at the bottom of my suspect list
First, thank you for viewing me as innocent.

Second, if too many people believe I am innocent then the wolves will probably kill me sometime soon, seeing as it is to their advantage to keep mainly suspicious people around.

But that's okay.
Yet his own behaviour has been the opposite of risk-adverse. He has been running the risk - if of course he is himself a non-werewolf - of being identified, rightly or wrongly, by the werewolves as a gifted villager.
Indeed, I have. This is mainly to be a thorn in the wolves' side.

Werewolf One- "Should we kill Phantom? He appears to be a gifted villager."
Werewolf Two- "No, you idiot, he's doing that on purpose to protect the seer, and since many people think he is innocent and perhaps gifted the guardian will probably be guarding him tonight. It might prove disasterous to try to kill him."
Werewolf Three- "But what if he's double bluffing? That'd be just like him. He probably is the seer or guardian hiding right out in the open."
Werewolf Two- "And if he is the guardian like you say he'll probably be guarding himself since he figures the wolves will try to kill him. No- going after him is too risky."
Werewolf One- "Grrr. He is so annoying. I don't care, Werewolf 2, I say we kill him!"

And the fact that I have admitted my intentions just now won't change anything. In fact, it might just add more fuel to the fire in the minds of the wolves.

Well, since no brave soul stepped forward, we will have to pick a lynching suspect. Perhaps we should look at the reaction to my plan.

Part of what I'm going to say is based on the assumption that the wolves are not communicating during the day, since they are NOT supposed to talk to each other during the day. *glares at werewolves* You'd better not be breaking the rules.

When presented with my plan, the most likely wolf reactions would be-
1) Huh? What in the world? How should I respond? Is this a trap? I'm too scared to respond, it might be some sort of trick. I should wait for Werewolf Two to say something and follow his lead.
2) Huh? What in the world? How should I respond? Is this a trap? I'm too scared to respond, it might be some sort of trick. I'm not going to post at all. I'll just pop in at the very end of the day and say something to avoid automatically getting killed by the non-participation rule.
3) Oh joy! This plan would make sure that I don't die today or tomorrow! Woo hoo! I approve.

Keep those reactions in mind and go back and see if you see any of those patterns.

Concerning pattern #1, could Azalia have been following Fea's lead?

Concerning pattern #3, perhaps Kath is indeed a good choice for lynching. But the thing is, innocents would approve to if they recognized the odds.

Pattern #2 is the most intriguing. I am very suspicious of those who have not posted yet- Ang and Esgal. If they pop in between now and the deadline then they fit into pattern three quite nicely.

In addition, the wolves probably figured it was likely that a lynching candidate would emerge from amongst the villagers who were present for most of the debate. Isn't that usually the case with such things? Therefore, perhaps they thought a good strategy would be to allow a candidate to be picked and receive a vote or two, and then pop on to avoid getting killed by the non-participation rule, and of course make some excuse for not being here sooner.

I have some extremely urgent work to do- the Smiths have a sick child I need to attend to- so I will have to cast my vote now.

+ + Esgallhugwen

Maybe Ang and Esgal aren't wolves but they certainly aren't helping our position by staying so silent. If they don't get a post in very soon they will automatically be killed anyway, so perhaps we might as well kill one of them? Then again, a wolf would not allow himself/herself to be killed like that, so watch and see if they show up at the last minute.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Werewolf One- "Should we kill Phantom? He appears to be a gifted villager."
Werewolf Two- "No, you idiot, he's doing that on purpose to protect the seer, and since many people think he is innocent and perhaps gifted the guardian will probably be guarding him tonight. It might prove disasterous to try to kill him."
Werewolf Three- "But what if he's double bluffing? That'd be just like him. He probably is the seer or guardian hiding right out in the open."
Werewolf Two- "And if he is the guardian like you say he'll probably be guarding himself since he figures the wolves will try to kill him. No- going after him is too risky."
Werewolf One- "Grrr. He is so annoying. I don't care, Werewolf 2, I say we kill him!"
Or, there's the other option that's been running in my head the whole time, but that may not be true (remember my last post):

Werewolf One - The Phantom: Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. I can't believe how many people are actually attaching themselves to my plan to kill innocent people. And they think it's for their own good to do it! This is perfect. Now if only Fea would shut up, I'd be perfectly poised to convince the whole lot of them to kill themselves without my even pointing fingers.

[Firefoot]

Phantom, I'd say there is a fourth pattern:

4) This would certainly benefit us, but not so much the innocents. {In so far as we are deliberately killing innocents...} I'll pretend to be an innocent and be opposed to the plan.

Perhaps you had this in mind when you said, "Concerning pattern #1, could Azalia have been following Fea's lead?", since this would be what Fea was going for if she were a werewolf, but I thought I'd put it out there.

And anyway, I don't really think Fea is a werewolf.

[Celuien]

I have some, ahem, deliveries to make that will keep me away from the village until after the deadline, so I'm going to have to vote now. I wish I could have waited until everyone made an appearance. And I wish I could have left time for a defense. But I'm going to take a deep breath and vote for

++ODDWEN

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I don't have really much time right now so I'm not going to beat about the bush. Here's some of my thoughts. I think phantom made his plan for the good of the villagers. However, it's too delicious a situation for the wolves not to take advantage of it because that's what wolves want to do on days: lynch an innocent.

If the wolves aren't too tricky, the easiest way for them to act would be just sit back and enjoy the show. Or then they (or some of them) could try to ally with phantom.

I was more suspicious of Kath and Lalaith than other villagers but Lalaith being the first one to vote for Kath doesn't seem to fit my scheme. Maybe I'm a tad more suspicious of Kath than Lalaith at the moment.

I understand why Celuien finds Oddwen's suggestion weird. I have to admit, though, that I had thought that we could vote using our senses today and then move on to the plan if we have no luck catching a wolf (which is probable). It's gambling on lives but I think it would be really sad to force an innocent to volunteer to be killed on the first day.

I'll be back before the night and by that time I'd like to hear something of Anguirel and Esgallhugwen as well.

EDIT: I must be a really slow writer. Basically other people have now said everything I was going to say but never mind, never mind...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I've always hated time constraints... Wish the artist luck... I must very shortly submerse myself in the nightmare that is a physics test. A really big one. A three hour long one. But that, so you know, is why I have to post my suspicions now, and with little evidence to back me up, because I didn't realize what time it is, and I haven't got enough to spare to go dig myself up quotes.

EOMER OF THE ROHIRRIM

Although he is outspoken, and very obviously in the thick of things, he's not really *doing* anything. At the first he was on my side, saying that the phantom had a nice plan, but that it won't work. A short time later, he switched sides to say that he thought the phantom's hostility toward me was not a bad thing, and that I am insane for trying to keep innocents alive, regardless of their special qualities. His minor slip in use of possessive pronouns has absolutely nothing to do with this vote, although I found LMP's notice of it really funny. What bothers me more is that Eomer seemed upset that LMP was teasing him over it. Also, Eomer "set a trap" for the werewolves by randomly accusing two people that there was no reason for. At first I thought that Eomer was the Seer, because he mentioned Anguirel twice, and I assumed that he was using Lalaith to somewhat shield such an obviously random accusation. But then he accused Lalaith again, which made me question his motives, so I asked him point blank. He then accused me of taking bait meant for werewolves, and that's just weird. It's like saying that a dolphin cannot possibly get caught in a tuna net. It happens, and it's not the dolphin's fault.

LITTLEMANPOET

Slips in pretty frequently to analyze what we're saying. But he's not much helping out with his own thoughts, except for the brilliant (although wrong) idea that the phantom and myself were in cahoots.

FEANOR OF THE PEREDHIL

Doesn't want to die. Which, of course, is why I won't volunteer myself for tp's scheme, but that's okay, because it looks like Nilpy's up for the dubious honour. I hope people realize that my bickering with tp is an honest fight, with no ulterior motives. Except, of course, to annoy him into saying something more revealing. ;)

THE PHANTOM

I'm beating my head against a brick wall on this one, so I'm just going to give up. My opinion hasn't changed any (except for the fact that I currently think that him living another day won't really hurt anything). If anybody questions me again, I'm just going to post saying "cough previous posts cough". It's pointless for me to keep repeating myself, when I think I've made my point well enough already.

SOMEBODY ELSE

You people don't even make me remotely nervous. Except for one. But I haven't got the time to properly explain myself, and a hasty vote for "somebody else" would be sure to make me look either insane or expendable. Which is why I'm going to try to slip in before voting ends to cast my final vote, since I'm torn between three people right now.

EDIT: because I have to leave right now, and there are only 18 minutes left of daytime hours, I have to vote, reluctant though I am. Somebody else, other suspect... you're getting off lucky on this one. ++EOMER OF THE ROHIRRIM

[Saurreg]

Time is running out. Blood must be spilled to satisfy the want for vengence by shortie and I must go set my traps before it gets too dark in the woods.

In any case good folks, may I remain you all of the common rule of the village that sez dat he who fails to open his mouth during the inquisition will never have to opportunity to use it again... Cuz he'll be dead! Hahahahaha... Erm, sorry bad joke.

Anyway, should both Anguirel and Esgallhugwen continue to be absent for the next two hours, they willl have their life forfeited in the most brutal of ways. We are a sadistic bunch, no?

We have a vote for Oddy and to be fair we have one for Esgal also. So that means following the current tide of public opinion and speaking trend, three will go sleep in the neitherworld tonight. Jah?

At the rate at which things are going I don't think I need even to vote today. If we hang more than three, then I will seriously doubt the structural capacity of the scaffold beam and if we tear more than three to tiny pieces limb from limb, us men would be so tired that we'll sleep through tomorrow!

It is late now and my ability to communicate and understand the English language in its written form is diminished. I shall go set my traps and retire to bed with hopes that a big bada** grizzly is dumb-dumb enough to get caught in it. Bear fur is in high demand you know? And if we do capture a werwolf tonight, leave me the caracass - if it's all furry as I suspect it would be, I'll skin it and sell it to setup a local academy devoted to lycan-studies in memory of shortie. Goodnight.

[Firefoot]

Okay, I've gone through the thread again and here's where I'm at.

Of the people on Lalaith's 'in-the-middle' list, the following all seem to be contributing with useful thoughts and ideas, or at least have an innocent feel to them: Celuien, dancing spawn, Evisse, Hookbill, Nilp Felagund, Lalaith, and myself. I am not particularly suspicious of any of these people.

However, Azaelia, Kath, Oddwen, and Saurreg are all sitting uneasy with me right now. Oddwen's post seems a little strange to me, however, I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt that she was just trying to broaden conversation. For Azaelia, Kath, and Saurreg, it is more that 'something isn't right,' and while I don't particularly care to vote for any of them, there really is not a lot of evidence one way or the other. So I guess my vote is for ++SAURREG. Sorry, old chap, if I'm wrong, but at the moment all choices seem fraught with error.

Edit: So right now the vote is tied with 1 vote each to Kath, Oddwen, Esga, Eomer, and Saurreg.

[the guy who be short]

There seems to be a little confusion. I'll remind villagers that voting ends at 4pm today, that is... about 5 minutes.

Also, absent villagers do not get killed on Day 1 because they have no chance to post that they'll be absent.

You should all really read my posts more carefully. :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Fea votes for me?

Well, I didn't agree with you about phantom's plan. I was wary of the plan regardless of you.

As for being suspicious of you (by saying 'String her up!) that was in regard to the comment you made about the Seer being unimportant. That was a crazy thing to say.

Littlemanpoet's teasing? I laughed about it too at first; it was the repetition which made me uneasy and suspicious of him.

As for accusing her of taking the bait, I understand: it was an easy thing to do. I'm not angry with you for that.

I didn't accuse Lalaith twice, did I? It was only a ploy anyway.

Oh, Fea also points out that I'm 'not really doing anything'. Sorry, but did you miss everything I said? I was trying to draw out werewolves by tempting them with fallacious reasoning.

Miss Fea, I am suspicious of you, however I shall hold my vote for a couple of minutes. You are not the only suspect.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I feel very uneasy about this but I want to save myself. (I'm selfish, deal with it.)

I will vote for ++ KATH

I mentioned her as a suspect earlier. Even if she is only a slight suspect, I must choose her as things stand (because lots of people seem to have forgotten the time)

Why do I think the werewolves are laughing.....

[the guy who be short]

As the village plunged into confusion, votes were cast everywhere. The villagers were completely baffled and seemed to be voting more or less at random.
And so it was that, with only two votes, Kath “won” the vote.
A gaggle of villagers gathered around Kath in the village square. Pitchforks glinted and danced in the light of spluttering torches as the rabble surrounded her, though the majority of the villagers merely looked on, unconvinced of her guilt.
“Please! Please listen!” Kath pleaded. “I’m innocent, I tell ye. I’m a simple – er… well, I don’t really have a profession, but I’m innocent, I tell ye!”
But the villagers would have none of it. Kath’s screams were quickly silenced as she disappeared under a hoard of angry villagers wielding traditional peasant-weaponry. “Die! Die wolf!” they chanted, laying upon her.
A few moments and many kicks, prods and pokes later, the villagers stepped back, expectantly waiting for the now severely beaten carcass of Kath to transform into a werewolf.
It didn’t.
“Alas! We have slain an innocent!” they wailed.
But worse was yet to come. The villagers rushed to inspect Kath’s home, and were surprised to find a cloak, a sword, a bow, quiver and arrows stashed away. For Kath was in fact the Ranger of the village, their sole protection from death in the night.
The villagers stood in shocked silence as they tried to absorb the harsh fact that they had slain their Ranger.

Living:

Anguirel
Azaelia of Willowbottom
Celuien
dancing spawn of ungoliant
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Esgallhugwen
Evisse the Blue
Feanor of the Peredhil
Firefoot
Hookbill the Goomba
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Nilpaurion Felagund
Oddwen
Saurreg
the phantom

Dead:

the guy who be short (Villager) - partially consumer by werewolves on NIGHT 1.
Kath (Ranger) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1.

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 13


Some things to sort out:
I think there might have been a little confusion about voting, as people are used to voting at 6pm. Please read the Mod posts very carefully, as they do say when the DAY / NIGHT phases start and begin.
I'm sorry I was unable to post this earlier, but both Esgallhugwen and Anguirel did PM me about being busy on this first DAY. I was unable to post it earlier due to illness, exams, etc. Anyway, they won't be dying toDAY. Also, I was sure I posted that absent villagers would not be lynched on DAY 1 as they wouldn't have the chance to tell fellow villagers that they wouldn't be there, but apparently it wasn't there when I checked the rules. Sorry about this, I'm editting it in (not that it matters now). Absentees will be lynched starting from the morrow.

For now, it is NIGHT. NIGHT ends at 4:30pm GMT, which I believe is 11:30 EST and 10:30 Central Time, or earlier if all NIGHT-time activities are received by me before then.

[littlemanpoet]

Sorry, I knew this was going to happen, but RL sleep and business at the shop kept me from voting until it was too late. I hope that the time spread works out better next time. :(

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Blast, I waited too long to cast my vote. Not that I would have made a difference... :( Poor old Kath, we've lost the ranger... Must try harder next time.

[the guy who be short]

It is NIGHT-time, y'know. You lot are meant to be peacefully in bed, ie quiet. :p

[the guy who be short]

After another sleepless and uneasy night, the villagefolk gathered in the village square, unsure of coming events. Had the fearsome Gaurhoth slain another innocent in the small hours?

At first, nothing seemed untoward. The villagers were all there, all fifteen – fifteen of them? Where was Azaelia of Willowbottom?!

Fearing the worst, the villagers sped to the seamstress’ home. They pushed open the door (oh! If only the village had a locksmith!) to find… nothing. Well, almost nothing. Looking closer, they noticed a small puddle of blood in the middle of the floor, though puzzlingly there was no body. Perhaps this was a ray of hope…

“Eru save us! Look!” one of the villagers cried, pointing at the door they had entered through. There, impaled to the wood through her hands and feet by her own knitting-needles, was nailed the body of Azaelia of Willowbottom. But worse still were the hundreds of small pins and needles that had been driven into her flesh, covering her small and innocent frame. Blood had poured down from her many piercings, staining her garments red, so that only a few small trickles managed to crisscross the door and dribble to the floor.

"Alas for Azaelia of Willowbottom! Her blood shall be avenged this day!"

Living:

Anguirel
Celuien
dancing spawn of ungoliant
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Esgallhugwen
Evisse the Blue
Feanor of the Peredhil
Firefoot
Hookbill the Goomba
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Nilpaurion Felagund
Oddwen
Saurreg
the phantom

Dead:

the guy who be short (Villager) - partially consumer by werewolves on NIGHT 1.
Kath (Ranger) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1.
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Villager) - turned into a pincushion on NIGHT 2.

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 12

It is now DAY. DAY will end at 5pm GMT tomorrow, which I believe is 12:00 noon EST and 11:00am Central.

[littlemanpoet]

Alack and alas for our poor Azaelia!
How could the fiends so meanly impale ya?
For this dastardly deed they must be made to pay,
with their lives and 'twould be best if we lynch one today!
If this be the way the beasts used her last night,
how would they use on me my butchering knives?
At least there's no sign that she was the Seer.
Might that one most subtly convey whom to fear?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Poor Azaelia. What a way to go...

I think it is only right and proper that I apologise humbly and sincerely to every villager and especially Kath (wherever she may be) for the integral part I played in the lynching yesterday. I accept great responsibility and feel dreadful about what happened.

However, I will not be made a scapegoat. Why were only 6 votes cast? What went wrong?

I do not want sympathy, to ask for such would be in horrible taste. However, I hope you can all appreciate the uncomfortable position I was put in. I could have:

1) voted for no-one, killing 5 villagers in one go.

2) voted for a different villager, killing 6 villagers in one go.

or 3) chose one of the other 4 villagers with one vote each, killing one villager.

Needless to say, I wanted to stay alive myself so I chose option 3, and it turned out very badly. I didn't really have a lot to go on.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Wow. That's not good about Kath... I can already hear the phantom saying "See guys? If you'd listened to me, this wouldn't have happened."

And wow, wolves... that was a really gory death. I hate needles. But look at the cool design the blood made on the floor...

[Lalaith]

This is just dreadful. The loss of good Azaelia, of course, but also of our gallant Ranger, through my suggestion. When I returned to the village last night, I little suspected I would find that my more or less random vote would have such dark and dire consequences. I honestly expected that my suggestion would be lost in the melee of voting, after all, there were 17 of us.
Brave Kath, wherever your spirit roams, my humble apologies. I am quite mortified, and if the village now turns on me, I won't be in the least surprised.

But please, fellow villagers, wherever your vote goes, let your voices be heard in future. Remember, "for evil to triumph it only needs the good to do nothing."

[the phantom]

I seem to remember someone putting forth a plan to avoid killing a gifted villager yesterday, but the other villagers just didn't like it and thought it would be for the best to just randomly pick someone.

Well, congratulations everyone- we lynched our ranger yesterday.

*bitterly mumbles something that sounds like "I told you so"*

What I am wondering is- why Azalia?

With the ranger gone, the wolves had a free opportunity to go after the seer, and Azalia was definitely not the seer. She posted yesterday but did not even hint at anyone's guilt or innocence as a seer would have done.

Either there was a better reason to kill Azalia than going after the seer, or the werewolves aren't really using much of a strategy.
Why were only 6 votes cast? What went wrong?
Perhaps no one wanted to be blamed for the death of an innocent?

With only six votes, it is entirely possible that not a single wolf cast a vote.

Or perhaps all three voted.

Who knows?

Is there anything we can learn from the voting?

Perhaps.

If Eomer is a wolf, then it is very likely that either Esgal, Oddwen, or Saurreg is also a wolf (I suspect Esgal the most of these three, mainly because I haven't heard from her). You see, Eomer popped in at the end to break a five-way tie. Even though his name was one of the names on the list, a smart wolf would have voted for a sixth person and taken five innocents with them to the grave. Five innocents is too juicy a prize to pass up. The only way a wolf would break a five-way tie is if there was another wolf besides himself on the list, because killing four innocents is not worth the price of two out of three wolves.

Now, I am not suggesting that Eomer is a wolf, because an innocent would've done exactly what he did, too. I am just saying this for future reference in case he gets lynched or is killed by the hunter and found out to be a wolf.

Also, if Fea is a wolf then it is probable that neither Esgal nor Oddwen are wolves since those two had votes before Fea voted. A wolf most likely would have tacked on their vote to an innocent (such as Kath) in order to ensure the survival of their friend.

The only case in which that wouldn't be true is if Fea had no fear that Esgal or Oddwen would receive any more votes (or enough to get lynched, anyway).

The same thing can be said of Firefoot. If she is a wolf then it is likely that the people who received votes before her (Esgal, Oddwen, and Fea) are not wolves.

Of course none of this is absolute. I am just attempting to provide some possible theories to work with.

Now, let's hear from everyone. What do some of our active participants from yesterday have to say? Celuien, Eomer, Firefoot, lmp- what are your thoughts?

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Truth ye hath spoken, Lalaith.

Alas, poor Azaelia. But really, Wear wolves, the pins and needles, weren’t that a little too far? What happened to good old-fashioned eating by w-ws? Obviously, Middle Earth wear-wolves are different. :|

But look at the cool design the blood made on the floor...

That's a little in bad taste, isn't it Feanor? Show a little respect. :o

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Seeing as how I have an other-world engagement of quite a lot of importance tomorrow night, I will not be around much, if at all, tomorrow. Also, my other-world party to celebrate tomorrow night's event of some importance is on Sunday, so I won't be around all afternoon that day, and there is quite the chance that I will be dead to the world for a long time Monday morning. That's not to say I won't try my best to be here and finger-pointing, but, just so you know, if I disappear for awhile, that incident of some importance to life and future happiness and success is at fault.

And now, I feel that I must continue to blame Eomer, because when I went to bed last night, he was still the one I was most suspicious of, followed closely by LMP, who was tailed by the phantom. And right up there mixed in with the group is that crazy Someone Else that I haven't bothered to name yet.

Even though there have been two deaths, I can't change my mind over a lynching set by two votes (I pity you on that one, Eomer), and a seemingly random night-time slaying. Until somebody else says or does something to take my attention from the Scotsman, he's where my eye rests.

EDIT: about that comment that was in bad taste... I'm an artist. I notice these things. I once freaked out a nurse who was prepping me to donate blood when I said with a grimace and a cringe that "Well, at least it's a really cool color." Sorry if my randomness upsets anyone.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Don't worry, Fea, you are forgiven... though my eye of suspicion is on you. A little whack should get it off, its nothing to worry about ;) . You are causing me a little suspicion. But not enough to convict you to a vote just yet. So, no worries. :p

[the phantom]

I have a bit of work to do, now. Though we are in great peril, we must not wholly abandon our jobs. Well- I certainly can't, anyway. If the healer doesn't heal then we'd have even more deaths on our hands.

I will return in three hours or so.

Don't be too hasty while I am away. Let us hear from everyone today.

[Firefoot]

I suppose I don't really have a lot of thoughts right now. Concisive thoughts, that is. For one thing, I would have thought that more people would have voted yesterday. I was not looking for a five-way tie; rather, I was unconvinced enough of the others' guilt that I chose not to vote for someone already voted for.

I don't know. I don't see as a lot of information can be drawn, either; the whole deal was very random and not enough people voted for any real conclusions to be drawn.

Here are the results from the voting, just for clarity so we don't have to dig back through the thread (proven innocents underlined):

Kath - 2 (Lalaith, Eomer)
Esga - 1 (phantom)
Oddwen - 1 (*Celuien*)
Eomer - 1 (Fea)
*Saurreg* - 1 (Firefoot)

Did not vote:

Anguirel - RL activities kept him away all day
Azaelia
dancing spawn - was confused about voting deadline
Esga - RL activities kept her away all day
Evisse - confused about voting deadline
Hookbill - missed voting due to power cut
Kath
littlemanpoet - missed voting
Nilpaurion
Oddwen
*Saurreg* - left in the middle of voting without voting

What I think we need to do is somehow structure the voting so that the wolves can't pull it whichever way they want. Yesterday it would have been extremely easy for the wolves to take out one or more innocents without us being the wiser. For one thing, more people ought to vote. I'm not blaming those of you who didn't; I'm just saying that in the future it would be best if everyone tried to. More information can be gained and there would be less chance for the wolves to manipulate the voting.

[Celuien]

Poor Kath. She will be missed. And how could the wolves do that to Azaelia? Terrible. :(

I think that the most important thing is to figure out why the wolves picked Azaelia last night. I had my thoughts on who the various gifted villagers might have been and Azaelia wasn't on the list. Of course, neither was Kath, although she turned out to be our Ranger. So unless the wolves picked up on something that I missed, I don't think they were looking for the Seer or Shirriffs.

Although Firefoot voted for Saurreg yesterday, Azaelia and Kath were both on her suspect list, and both proven innocent. It could be that either Oddwen or Saurreg (or both) is a werewolf and that Azaelia was chosen to discredit that list. They could also be attempting to cast suspicion on Firefoot by showing that two of her four suspects were innocents. Of course, accusing an innocent on the first day doesn't mean much. I'm just trying to find some logic in Azaelia's death. I don't think she accused anyone yesterday, but I will check again to be sure.

I'll have to review the thread some more to see if I can come up with anything else...

Quick RL notice: I have a 5 to 6 hour drive ahead on me on Saturday, to be followed by unpacking and trying to set up Internet access in the dorm where I'll be staying temporarily. I won't be able to check in much until Sunday, but will do my best to make an appearance before the deadline.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Firefoot has a point. Think of what a blow it would have been yesterday if Eomer hadn't gotten in just before voting ended.

And just for the joke of it, let's all kill tp while he's gone. I'm sure he'd appreciate it. ;) :p :D

[Lalaith]

The only case in which that wouldn't be true is if Fea had no fear that Esgal or Oddwen would receive any more votes (or enough to get lynched, anyway).

My trouble is, how could *anyone* know whether or not more people would vote after them? Except Eomer, who posted with just 2 minutes to go.
And why did Saurreg, knowing that three villagers stood to die, therefore think it was ok for him not to vote? And did he not think that perhaps he would join them (as indeed he almost did, were it not for Eomer's last minute vote...)

[Lalaith]

Suggestion to Firefoot - could you edit your excellent list with a list of those who didn't vote, and why (eg the two who had notified of their absence etc) I think that could be significant, too...

[Hookbill the Goomba]

There was a power cut in my area before I was able to vote and by the time it was over, I had forgotten. :( It was not my fault, so don't castrate me! Perhaps some people did not vote as it is the first night and it was very unlikely that we'd catch a W-w so early on. I don't know, I'm only guessing.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

A little confusion happened to me yesterday concerning the deadline. I was typing my post in the belief that I had yet an hour till I have to cast my vote. I sent it but obviously night time had come and I ended up deleting the post.
Unfortunately I have to admit that I would have voted for Kath because somehow I felt she was suspicious. I see that I was terribly wrong and almost built phantom a "told you so" placard.

Another thing I would have liked to say yesterday is that I wonder, what made Saurreg say this: "I don't think I need even to vote today." When does he need to vote, then? I don't want to attack anyone (yet) especially because I feel bad because of my stupid time zone blunder. I'm just thinking aloud. And I'll think aloud more a bit later.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Fea, you seem to suspect littlemanpoet, phantom and myself simply because we have held correspondence with you, and thus natural suspicion had the chance to arise. The loudmouth effect. Also, I note you didn't take the time to react to my riposte, which I gave right before Kath's death. All you did was reinforce your suspicion of me. I'm not sure this is completely fair. If my points do not satisfy you then please explain how and why.

I wouldn't look too far for a reason in Azaelia's death. No loudmouth would be killed; Esgal or Ang wouldn't be killed (for reasons all gamers must surely realise ;) ) and there was not a whole lot of distinction between the others. Azaelia did annoy the phantom with one of her posts, maybe it was to cast suspicion on the phantom?

I am much more interested in why the wolves didn't go after the phantom. Maybe they just haven't picked up on the central aspect of his plan. Think about it. Either the wolves are not smart at all, or the phantom is one of them.

Saurreg's behaviour at the end of the last day was odd. I'm not sure why he would willingly put to death a whole bunch of people. Surely he could have nominated one villager out of the list, to avoid large-scale and mostly unintelligible bloodshed.

Anyway, I think we all realise that voting is important today. Let's see some participation, people!

[Firefoot]

Lalaith (and everyone) - list has been edited accordingly. I listed the reasons of those who gave them and added a few notable comments (eg about Saurreg leaving in the middle of voting).

It is completely understandable for people to accidentally miss a vote for whatever reason. However, if you know (or find it likely) that you will miss a vote, vote earlier. There is nothing wrong with this. Though no one wants to be the first vote, voting before everyone else is better than not voting at all, especially at this point in the game.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Well, Eomer, if you want me to address your comments, here I go.

As for being suspicious of you (by saying 'String her up!) that was in regard to the comment you made about the Seer being unimportant. That was a crazy thing to say.

I wasn't saying that the Seer isn't important. I was, and still am, saying that we don't need the Seer to win. What's important is innocent villagers that have some talent at picking out guilty faces, gift or not.

Fea, you seem to suspect littlemanpoet, phantom and myself simply because we have held correspondence with you, and thus natural suspicion had the chance to arise. The loudmouth effect.
You got it. Nobody else was making as much noise as us, so I felt obligated to pick my suspects from people who actually gave me some reason to feel that way.

If my points do not satisfy you then please explain how and why.
Whether I am satisfied or not, it is always good to have a public suspect. People get sloppy if they think your mind is set.

[Evisse the Blue]

And it's mostly aimed at me and at those who arrived yesterday just in time for the lynching and didn't get to cast the vote. I was foolishly certain the voting deadline was 6 PM GMT. For what it's worth it, I'm really sorry, Kath. :( And if you guys are wondering, I was going to vote, and my vote would have been for Oddwen. So all the more I kick myself right now, because even if Oddwen is innocent, I doubt she is a gifted villager. But then again, nobody guessed Kath was a gifted villager - although, having looked back now I read things differently: the way she reacted to phantom's plan, recognizing that it could offer her protection.
I too am at a loss as to why Azaelia was slaughtered by the werewolves tonight (and in such a gruesome way too! :eek: )

But something else is on my mind right now: Feanor's vote for Eomer yesterday. I don't find any logical basis for it, and it seemed to be a gut reaction to him suspecting her. Anyway, I am most puzzled by the time when she chose to cast that vote (20 minutes before the deadline) - and while some of us thought the deadline extended to 6 PM GMT, Fea knew the voting was going to end in 18 minutes, she said so in her post. By that time, 4 other people were voted for. The chances that innocents were going to come in those 18 minutes to ensure that 5 people didn't get lynched were about as high (or I'd rather say 'low') as werewolves coming along to ensure a few more got lynched. If no one else showed up, those 5 would have died anyway. Now, the problem is we can't know for sure if people didn't vote because they didn't pay attention to the deadline change or werewolves didn't show up to vote because a werewolf was on that list. Or - the other possibility, that has already been mentioned, that werewolves did vote. In that last case, Fea's vote for Eomer when so little time was left seems highly suspicious.

[Celuien]

Thanks, Firefoot.

The more I think about it, the more suspicious I am of Saurreg. It doesn't make sense for an innocent not to vote once the tie was in place. Reading his post (http://forums.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=394949&postcount=92) again, it looks like he expected not three but five villagers to die since we didn't know that Anguirel and Esgallhugwen had given notice of their absence yet. In fact, seeing that post almost made me wish I could retract my vote for Oddwen. Of course, I realize that I was involved in creating the tie, but at the time, the only other votes were for Kath and Esgallhugwen. I saw no reason to be suspicious of Kath, so I didn't vote for her. I didn't want to vote for a villager who hadn't said anything yet, which is why I didn't cast my vote for Esgallhugwen. And I did expect a few more people to vote before the deadline to prevent a potential five-villager slaughter. I'm going to be watching closely for Saurreg's posts...

I suppose Azaelia's selection could have been a random draw from the non-loudmouth pool.

Maybe the reason that the phantom wasn't targeted (assuming he's not a wolf, of course) is that he said that he expected to be killed soon and they weren't going to give him credibility.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

But something else is on my mind right now: Feanor's vote for Eomer yesterday. I don't find any logical basis for it, and it seemed to be a gut reaction to him suspecting her.
You know why I voted for Eomer? Because I was truly only suspicious of three people. You know which three people? The phantom, Eomer, and Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (she, by the way, is "Someone Else"). None of them were on the list, so no matter what, I was going to be voting for somebody besides those people. I wasn't about to vote for a person I didn't suspect. So I had my three guesses, and I had to pick which one. I posted my suspect post and then, when finished, I looked at the clock, remembered I had to go take a three hour Regents exam very soon, and then suddenly remembered that the deadline was in 18 minutes. I knew I wasn't going to be able to come back, so I had to EDIT in a snap decision. Since I was most suspicious at Eomer at that point, I tagged him for it. Then I went and may or may not have failed a long and arduous physics test. I simply assumed that a few more of our many villagers would show up and vote, since there was such a wonderful twenty minute window of opportunity.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Maybe the reason that the phantom wasn't targeted (assuming he's not a wolf, of course) is that he said that he expected to be killed soon and they weren't going to give him credibility.

Yes, the same thought crossed my mind. Although, its still early days and I think he'll show his true colours soon enough.

Eomer, you're thoughts on the possible accidental lynching of our seer are interesting. No, we don't need the seer, par se, but he / she's a useful tool (yes, I've read the rules a little more now :p) I will be suspicious of anyone who would try to lynch someone with seer like qualities so early on in the game....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Um, Hookbill, you've completely lost me. I have no idea what you are talking about.

Dancing spawn? Hmm, I'm intrigued as to why her name has been brought up as a suspect. I'm looking keenly at phantom and Saurreg as two of our wolves at the moment.

[Esgallhugwen]

Alas, I am gone for a day and look what has befallen our quiet village! My poor Grandmother's house (located in a distant village) nearly decided to take a swim in the flooded Longbow. I had travelled there to ensure she was indeed safe, I also needed supplies for my candles.

I've thought up a wonderful idea for you Lalaith , scented candles. Lavender would be wonderful for soothing those restless little charges of yours, and the glow of the flame would act as a 'night light' to scare the shadows away. What do you think?

But anyway, I must admit I was slightly taken aback that the Phantom had voted for me, but then again I couldn't make it for the first Day so I suppose his decision will not bode ill with me. It was a 50/50 chance between Anguirel and myself, I can't really hold anything against him.

But Kath! That's horrible and what poor luck we've been given on the first day, our Ranger being taken from us not by the claws of wolves but by our own panicked confusion. I've also read everyone elses ideas, and then Azaelia was slaughtered. Why would they go after her, she was quiet enough, and didn't really speak out against anybody.

I must go through my thoughts again before I come to a decision about who is most suspicious.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Here are my thoughts on the hidden wolves:

the phantom offers his plan to lynch an innocent villager who does not possess 'special powers'. He does not offer himself. There's a slight chance that he is a self-serving hypocrite who thinks that he can be the one exception out of the ordinary villagers, but that's probably only a slight chance.

He is basically coming out into the open, right at the start of the game, and telling everyone that he is a gifted villager or a werewolf.

If the werewolves honestly didn't pick that up then I'm sorry for being so damn sensible in public, and they will kill him tonite anyway. But it's not my fault; the phantom himself put out this thinly veiled message.

Why didn't the werewolves kill the phantom? It's quite possible that they put little thought into their selection. It's quite possible that they just overlooked the phantom's claim and decided to keep him alive as a useful and troublemaking loudmouth.

However, it's also quite possible that the phantom himself is one of the furry fiends.

(I realise that if you take my advice we will probably end up lynching a Seer-phantom. Well, we have little else to go on. If that happens then by all means, lynch me for being so pathetically wrong.)

Saurreg offered a little "O, well done old boy! It's nice to see someone thinking about the good of the village, even though the plan itself isn't perfect." Clearly, the werewolf's way of protecting his ally yet keeping him at arm's length.

It fits together. (And yes, I am aware that just about every theory 'fits together' and that coherentism is a rubbish theory of truth.)

But there you have my two suspects: the phantom and Saurreg.

If yesterday was anything to go by, don't listen to me. :rolleyes: But realise that if the phantom is innocent, the werewolves will kill him tonite if we don't lynch him. So we won't actually lose anything (except, perhaps, the phantom's occasional jovial nature! :D )

[the phantom]

I've been gone for a bit so I'm going to go back and respond to everything that has happened since I have been gone.
But anyway, I must admit I was slightly taken aback that the Phantom had voted for me, but then again I couldn't make it for the first Day so I suppose his decision will not bode ill with me. It was a 50/50 chance between Anguirel and myself, I can't really hold anything against him.
Thanks for understanding, Esgal.
I think that the most important thing is to figure out why the wolves picked Azaelia last night. I had my thoughts on who the various gifted villagers might have been and Azaelia wasn't on the list.
Here, Celuien makes the same observation that I made earlier. Why in the world did the wolves kill Azalia? I haven't spotted a good reason so far- not a good enough reason for the wolves to have lynched her over someone who was possibly the seer.
And why did Saurreg, knowing that three villagers stood to die, therefore think it was ok for him not to vote?
what made Saurreg say this: "I don't think I need even to vote today."
Saurreg's behaviour at the end of the last day was odd.
The more I think about it, the more suspicious I am of Saurreg. It doesn't make sense for an innocent not to vote once the tie was in place. Reading his post again, it looks like he expected not three but five villagers to die since we didn't know that Anguirel and Esgallhugwen had given notice of their absence yet.
Well, well- it seems that Saurreg is the flavor of the day. But I don't believe he is as suspicious as you are making him out to be.

The way I see it, only four votes had been cast and he assumed that there were more on the way, and that a decision would be made without his vote. I mean- is there anyone who thought that voter turnout would be as low as it was? I doubt it.

It is possible that the people he suspected the most already had a vote against them, and instead of casting a vote for one of them he wanted to leave them tied and then wait and see if anyone tried to come rescue them.

Plus, there were others who made an appearance but did not cast a vote. Many others. I don't really see anything within Saurreg's posts to place him as a suspect above all the others who sat on their votes, nor above those who did vote.

At this point, I might like to lynch Anguirel simply because he hasn't shown up.

As far as people who have been around, my eye is on Eomer.

Eomer, when speaking of why the wolves killed who they killed, said this-
No loudmouth would be killed
And yet, a couple lines later he said this-
I am much more interested in why the wolves didn't go after the phantom.
First he says that wolves would not kill a loudmouth (I am a loudmouth), and then he wonders why I wasn't killed. That seems very odd to me. Is he trying to give a reason for why he wasn't killed (because he is a loudmouth) but somehow not extend to me the same excuse he is using for himself.

Very suspicious.

And actually, I thought that I stood a good chance of getting killed last night. As I plainly said yesterday, I was trying my best to be a thorn in the wolves' side. I was hoping that they would perhaps try to kill me and the ranger would guard me and thus ruin their night. Once we lost our ranger I was expecting to be killed (well, I thought it likely anyway).

The way I saw it, the main reason for the wolves not to kill me would be if they were going to try and set me up the next day, which Eomer appears to be doing.

Once again, I am suspicous of him.
Either the wolves are not smart at all, or the phantom is one of them.
Oh really, Eomer?

Even if I was a wolf, that would not make their selection of Azalia smart.

The best defense I can offer as to why I am not a wolf- I would have made a much better kill last night.

Anyone who knows me well knows that to be true.

And don't even say it was some sort of trick. It is not advantageous for a wolf to pass on an opportunity to kill the seer simply to attempt some sort of trick which may or may not work.

There is no way that I would've killed Azalia and you know it.
I'm looking keenly at phantom and Saurreg as two of our wolves at the moment.
Really? I don't believe you.

I believe that you think Saurreg and I are the two sheriffs and you are hoping to kill one of us during the day and one tonight.

You were on my short list of possible seers, but you are not on it anymore since you are going after me and I am not a wolf.

EDIT: just saw Eomer's last post
He is basically coming out into the open, right at the start of the game, and telling everyone that he is a gifted villager or a werewolf.
That was one of the points of what I did. I am not the seer, but if I could make the wolves suspect me and go after me at night then that would ensure that the seer was not killed that night. I was doing my duty as a villager- protecting my seer.
But realise that if the phantom is innocent, the werewolves will kill him tonite if we don't lynch him.
Clever, Eomer. You are painting this as a "we might as well" sort of situation.

I think that we should lynch you instead.

You have done exactly what I figured the wolves would do today if they left me alive- try and set me up.

[littlemanpoet]

Frustrated. Thus I dispense with any (intentional) doggerel.

I could have set my alarm extra early in order to have more than the mere 5 minutes before 6 am EDT to place in a hurried vote, but didn't want to make a rush judgment that I would regret later. I'm not allowed to play games while I draw and quarter my carcases, so I had to wait until I could get away for lunch. By then the vote was over and I "spoke up" as soon as I could - I'm sorry that it was officially "night".

I do not at all like the fact that the last few voting hours of both days are turning out to be in the morning while I have to be at the shop. Exceedingly frustrating.

Will post more when I get a chance. Supper's on.

[Lalaith]

I've realised (not having had much experience with werewolves before) that there is much to learn. For example, how great a part of one's thoughts should one share? There is the need to band together the innocents, but how to do this without alerting the wolves?
Anyway, I still think honesty is the best policy so here are two thoughts of mine.

1. The Werewolf Slaying
Azaelia was probably killed, as Kath was, more or less at random. The fact that the wolves got the hunter was a lucky strike. BUT I believe that the wolves picked their victim out of the non-voters. Voters leave a trail, clues to something or other, while non-voters are a tabula rasa.
The other thought I had regarding the slaying was that Azaelia was, along with Feanor and myself, the most vocal opponent of phantom's volunteer plan. However, unlike Feanor and myself, Azaelia failed to vote. I am not convinced that this is significant, however.

2. Yesterday's Vote
From yesterday's events, the evidence points to Eomer probably NOT being a werewolf. Werewolves are allies. If he were a werewolf he would not have had to save himself, one of the other werewolves could simply have stepped in and voted for one of the other nominees. This would not have drawn suspicion to Eomer, because there were three other nominees also saved.

There are however three reasons I can think of why Eomer would have had to vote to save himself and yet still be a werewolf:
a. Because the other two werewolves weren't around. I am slightly suspicious that Eomer waited around until the last minutes to save himself, as if he were waiting for someone else to do it. (Mind you, this would also work if he were a Shirriff and the other Shirriff wasn't around)
b. Because ALL THREE werewolves were, by chance, nominated. So one of them had to step in to stop the slaughter.
c. Because two of the three werewolves were nominated and the third wasn't around.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Wow phantom, you're really not gonna like that last post I made..... ;)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

the phantom brings up an excellent point and I am very glad he has. It allows me to give an explanation of my seemingly contradictory quotes.

- I did say that the werewolves would not kill a loudmouth.

- Then I did wonder why they hadn't killed the phantom (a loudmouth).

There is a reason for this.

In between making those comments, I considered the phantom's plan in greater depth.

Originally I had thought that he was certainly safe from the wolves just because he was a loudmouth, prone to cause trouble and confusion among the innocent villagers.

But then, I realised the meaning of his lack of volunteering for his plan, thus suggesting that he is gifted or a werewolf. Which begs the question, why was he not killed by the werewolves if he is gifted.

I realise I was not especially quick to grasp this myself but hey! I'm no werewolf, I don't have to carefully consider which villager to feast upon! :p



EDIT TO ADD: I was quick to reply to that query, phantom. Not so your follow-up. I am off to bed. Don't consider apparent hesitation to be suspicious, please.

[the phantom]

Lalaith, you are doing some good thinking but you haven't quite got it figured out.
If he were a werewolf he would not have had to save himself, one of the other werewolves could simply have stepped in and voted for one of the other nominees. This would not have drawn suspicion to Eomer, because there were three other nominees also saved.
That is completely wrong.

It would've been far more suspicious for someone else to step in and save Eomer than it was for Eomer to save himself- because that is what an innocent would do. It is always excusable for someone to cast a vote to save their life. We never hold that against someone because they literally have no choice, therefore Eomer was the perfect person to save Eomer.
But then, I realised the meaning of his lack of volunteering for his plan, thus suggesting that he is gifted or a werewolf. Which begs the question, why was he not killed by the werewolves if he is gifted.
That is the question I asked at the beginning of the day. Azalia was extremely unlikely to be gifted, so why in the world was she killed?

And even if the wolves thought that I was a plain villager trying to trick them into killing me as the seer, there were much better choices besides Azalia.

The only reasons I can think of to kill Azalia are-
1) The werewolves aren't doing much thinking
2) Killing someone who was obviously not gifted would be a sure way to get everyone to wonder why no one who appeared to be gifted was killed. Who looks the most likely to be gifted? Me.

So it seems likely that the reason Azalia was killed was because the wolves thought that they could easily shift suspicion to me the next day.

Where as if they had killed me during the night- who would be their lynching suspect for today?

No one else is as easy a target as I am.

So there you have it.

Azalia was killed in order to get me lynched and Eomer is in the process of carrying out the plan as we speak.

[Lalaith]

No phantom, I don't think you understand my point. I had already thought of the "what would an innocent do" thing.
Let us say Eomer is a werewolf, and lmp is another werewolf. Lmp steps in when the votes stand at Eomer 1, Kath 1, Esg 1, Oddwen 1, Saurreg 1. He posts "OMG, unless I do something four villagers will die. Ok, I'll vote for, um, Kath." How is that suspicious? And even if it is, how do we know if it is Esg, Oddwen, Saurreg or Eomer he is trying to save?

I got your point, however, about a clever werewolf thinking that a death of one of his allies would be worth it, as it was taking out four villagers as well. So it is as you said possible that one of the other werewolves had already been nominated too.

I've thought of another reason why werewolf-Eomer might have to save himself: if the other werewolves had already done their nominating when he was nominated. That basically means phantom and Celuinen (as I know I'm not a werewolf.)
However while it is perhaps possible that either phantom OR Eomer are werewolves, I don't think they both are. Phantom and Feanor, possibly (there's a bit too much Beatrice and Benedick in their rowing)

[Esgallhugwen]

Hm, so it seems Saurreg, Eomer and the Phantom, have most suspicion laid upon them. At least the way I've been reading.

At first I didn't quite agree with the Phantom's first plan, perhaps making him slightly suspicious due to the gravity of killing some of our own, but today I'm agreeing with his thoughts for the most part. But I can't be highly suspicious of Eomer either. Everyone wants to be able to save their own skins, he was only doing what is in his human nature, and how can we truly hold that against him?

But why would he say the werewolves will kill the Phantom tonight? Again he draws suspicion to himself, when he could have said they may or might kill him. Perhaps I'm looking to deeply into his words.

Saurreg seems to be violent but that may well be due to his occupation as a Furrier.... I suppose. He did seem to be looking forward to Anguirel and myself being lynched due to our absence, which I'm glad was not the case, RL can get in the way at the horrible times. :(

[Lalaith]

Thank you for your kind offer of candles, Esgalhugwen, it is good that someone is thinking of the children at this terrible time.
But where is Anguirel?

[the phantom]

I suppose I understand your point, Lalaith, but I think a second wolf stepping in to save Eomer would have been worse for the wolves because if that second wolf ever gets lynched then we would know he was protecting someone on day one.

And seeing as there were many people tied, it would have been likely that he was protecting two someones, since one single wolf would be glad to die if he can take five or six people with him.

I believe that Eomer was the logical choice to save himself.
Phantom and Feanor, possibly (there's a bit too much Beatrice and Benedick in their rowing)
:p

Well, all I can say to that is Fea and I act like that all the time, even when we're not in this werewolf-plagued town. It's a combination of competitiveness, love of arguing, and extreme chemical and biological attraction. ;)
I'm agreeing with his thoughts for the most part. But I can't be highly suspicious of Eomer either.
Why not? I think my case I've made is pretty strong. I believe that he killed Azalia because he thought he could set me up today, and the reason he is going after Saurreg as well is because he thinks we are sheriffs.

Read my last couple of posts again.

[Esgallhugwen]

Please read my above post again Phantom I had to make an edit and in that time you had already posted. I do believe you have some very solid evidence and therefore will not be needing to read your posts again.

Perhaps I'm simply too merciful, and want to give others as much chance as they can get. On the other hand being merciful when blood crazed hairy demons are prowling about won't save me from their foaming maws. And I don't want to pick you simply because you chose me by chance. That would be foolish, especially if you happen to be one of our remaining gifted.

[Esgallhugwen]

Thank you for your kind offer of candles, Esgalhugwen, it is good that someone is thinking of the children at this terrible time.
But where is Anguirel?

Your welcome Lalaith, someone has to think of the children, pray that they survive this.

And good point, what has befallen Anguirel? I hope he has not been trapped in RL again.

[the phantom]

what has befallen Anguirel?
I am somewhat concerned about him too, but I'm going to leave him (and others) alone for a while and wait for more people to post their thoughts on my theory about Eomer being a wolf and killing Azalia in order to set me up today.

Speak up, villagers. Doesn't my idea (found here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=395163&postcount=128) and here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=395168&postcount=133)) make sense- or at least as much sense as anything else we have?

[Esgallhugwen]

I agree with Phantom, please start to speak up fellow villagers. I don't want to be rushed to vote but I have to go soon and I am worried I won't be able to make it back in time to vote. I want to hear what the others can bring to the discussion.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Well, all I can say to that is Fea and I act like that all the time, even when we're not in this werewolf-plagued town. It's a combination of competitiveness, love of arguing, and extreme chemical and biological attraction.
Thanks a lot, jerk. I just choked on my white chocolate Reese's peanut butter cups (or their canonical equivalent) because that last part of your explanation made me laugh so hard.

Anyhow... There's nothing more clarifying than taking a few steps back (or, more accurately, spending a few hours out of town) to see who's accusing who, and who's alliances changed over night.

Phantom, I want to lynch you. I haven't figured out if the reason I suspect you so much is because after your condescending "I wouldn't expect you to understand" type insults yesterday, not to mention your undying superiority complex, I've been looking for reasons to think you're guilty. Which is why I'm not going to vote for you. Again. I don't want sheer annoyance with your self-preservation to cloud my vote. Not that it isn't endearing and all, but you know... still annoying.

And guys, you're looking at the phantom's non-death or potential death all wrong. Who argued most against him yesterday? I did. Because he's got a sketchy idea. So if the werewolves really wanted to frame somebody by killing our phantasmic buddy, they'd slaughter him brutally in order to make me look guilty. If he's a werewolf, he'd know that he could get me by sacrificing himself to the masses. See, the idea is that he's put forth the idea that either he's a wolf or a gifted villager. Since the wolves didn't kill him last night, it means that either he's a wolf, or that the wolves want us to think he is, and save themselves the trouble by letting us deal with him. I'm pretty much thinking the latter right now, but my thoughts change a lot.

The fact that the wolves got the hunter was a lucky strike.
The wolves didn't get the hunter. Heck, the villagers didn't even get the hunter. We accidentally killed the Ranger. There's a big difference.

The other thought I had regarding the slaying was that Azaelia was, along with Feanor and myself, the most vocal opponent of phantom's volunteer plan. However, unlike Feanor and myself, Azaelia failed to vote
Firefoot was pretty vocal against the phantom also. Just to point out.

Now... I have a big problem. I have places to see, things to go, and people to... wait a minute... :p Strike that, reverse it. My problem is that I cannot stay online all that much longer, and the chances of me getting online tomorrow are not high, since I'll be away from home from 8:00 AM 'til 9:00 PM EST, if I even make it home at all. So I have to vote... right now.

Since I haven't distrusted Eomer today as much as I've distrusted the phantom, and I've already said I'm not voting against the phantom today... it means that I have to pick somebody else. It was pointed out that my accusation of Spawn was random. It wasn't. It just seemed that way because I hadn't mentioned it before, and when I finally did, I didn't bother to share with you why I was suspicious. Here's why: yesterday when I "left to go paint", she hadn't posted very often. Thrice, to be exact. She made comments on what was going on, and she made certain that she was actually there, but at the same time, she was not contributing personal opinions. That makes me nervous. I'm more comfortable around loudmouths, because even if they're hiding over half of what they're thinking, they're still saying enough to potentially damn themselves. If that's not a sign of innocence, I don't know what is, since wolves like to stay out of the hangman's noose, if you'll pardon the pun.

So... my vote... since I'm long-windedly procrastinating. Eeny meeny miny... no... I can't do that. That's just not fair. Not Eomer, because I don't suspect him, even though I've spent the better part of two days harassing him. I just wanted to see him squirm. Not the phantom, because I don't want to vote for him for the wrong reasons. That leaves me to contemplate my suspects from yesterday, because today nobody is doing anything sketchy. I don't much suspect Dancing Spawn right now, though I don't know why I shouldn't. Maybe it's because I've been so busy agonizing over those other two loudmouths.

Regretfully... I must vote, by default, for the other person on my day one suspect list. ++LITTLEMANPOET, I'm terribly sorry if you're innocent, but since I've cancelled out the other three... You know... maybe I should just volunteer myself to be lynched. It would mean less thinking. ;) :p

[Firefoot]

Hm, there's been a lot of accusations flying. I am unconvinced of the guilt of both Eomer and phantom, though phantom is higher on my list than Eomer. Right now I am not inclined to believe that either are werewolves. As for Saurreg, I'm still rather suspicious of him but he hasn't posted anything recently so there's not really anything more to go on there. I would like to hear what he has to say.

At this point, I think our wolves are more likely to be lurking in the background, offering up some "useful" comments; generally, just blending in (and they seem to be doing a pretty good job of it. I don't feel very suspicious of anyone). It doesn't make sense for a wolf to be a loudmouth.

For the werewolves, this is also why Azaelia made a good target. Her death leaves us no real indication of who the wolves are (except for phantom, but that feels more like a frame-up. That would be the worst thing for wolves to do would be to kill someone they brought especial attention to during the day - especially when there are so many to choose from).

I was hoping to clear my own mind by writing this, but no such luck, alas. I would really like to hear some more from Saurreg, Oddwen, Nilpaurion (too bad he lives in such a different time zone), dancing spawn, and Anguirel.

[the phantom]

For the werewolves, this is also why Azaelia made a good target. Her death leaves us no real indication of who the wolves are
But is that a good enough reason for the wolves to pass up a chance to kill the seer?
except for phantom, but that feels more like a frame-up
Yes, that is correct. Frankly, framing me is the best reason I see for killing her, and who is it going after me today? Eomer.

About the only way I'm going to vote for someone other than him is if someone offers a theory that seems more believable than mine.

I've seen finger pointing, and people saying "I'm suspicious of so-and-so", but I have yet to see very many people really get into the minds of the wolves and try to determine what they were hoping to accomplish by killing Azalia.

Surely they were trying to accomplish something?

Wolves kill-
1) Whoever they think is the seer.
2) Someone that will make a wolf look innocent.
3) Someone that will make an innocent look guilty.

We can rule out #1. No one would think she was the seer.

#3 would be what I'm talking about- the wolves killed her to try and set me up. Of course, there were about four or five people they could've killed to accomplish the same thing, meaning that they picked Azalia randomly from amongst a small group.

I haven't really looked at #2 so far today. Maybe I should.

In fact, I will right now.

I briefly suggested an Azalia-Fea combination, so killing Azalia could've been done to make Fea look innocent.

Firefoot, in post #93, grouped Kath, Azalia, Saurreg, and Oddwen together.

Kath died yesterday, Azalia died last night, and Firefoot cast her vote for Saurreg and appears to be leaning that way once again.

If Saurreg gets lynched and is found to be innocent, that would mean three of Firefoot's group of four will have been proved innocent, and thus would probably make people want to excuse the fourth person, Oddwen.

So, if the wolves killed Azalia in an attempt to make one of the wolves (or several) look innocent, then Oddwen, Firefoot, and Fea would be our likely wolves.

Logically it sounds pretty good, but I still think my idea is more likely, and Eomer killed Azalia to set me up.

Unless both ideas are true, and Eomer along with two of the other three (Firefoot, Oddwen, or Fea) are werewolves.

But, of course, the chances of me identifying all three werewolves on day two is very slim.

[Saurreg]

Ah! Woe be unto me. It would appear that this poor innocent furrier is at the brunt of almost all accusations.

To my detractors I tell this to you; I am not a werewolf and you should all stop eyeing me. I did not vote in my last post before the lynching quite simply because I did not know that we had only a few minutes left, I thought we had two more hours to hear more arguments and detect any arguing and voting patterns. On my screen the time is now reflected as of typing is GMT 1252 am. So go figure...

The voter turn out yesterday was indeed very oddly low, reflecting the uncertainty of the majority of my fellow villagers on who is a werewolf. These are goodly folks who cannot bring themselves to simply vote on whim against their conscience. I also cannot, which is why I waited until it was too late.

Infact may I bring your attention onto this quote:

Also, I was sure I posted that absent villagers would not be lynched on DAY 1 as they wouldn't have the chance to tell fellow villagers that they wouldn't be there, but apparently it wasn't there when I checked the rules. Sorry about this, I'm editting it in (not that it matters now). Absentees will be lynched starting from the morrow.

That was the basis of my supposed "glee" and bloodthirst when I posted in regards to Anguirel and Esgallhugwen. I merely stated what the GM has confessed as misfacts.

Firefoot has indeed pointed out that my last post was odd. That's true. But pray tell if I were a werewolf, why would I make myself such a prominent target? In any case you all can see that by the time voting ended - no one came forth and supported me or such. I was clearly on my own yesterday collaborating with no one whatsoever. So I thank you footie for your "endorsement" ;)

Perhaps we should be looking closely at those who voted yesterday and rethinking the rationale behind their supposed reasons. ;)

[Saurreg]

Firefoot lumped yours throughly with Kath, Willowbottom and Oddwen. Both Kath and Willowbottom are "coincidentally" no more and I am now the main suspect.

Is it just me? Or do my beady lil' eyes detect a pattern here? Oddwen, you'd better look out for yourself.

[Firefoot]

Firefoot cast her vote for Saurreg and appears to be leaning that way once again. Do I? Actually, I'm not really leaning anywhere at the moment (or when I wrote that post). What I meant was that of the three people who seemed to be getting the most suspicion, I would choose Saurreg over phantom or Eomer. I honestly have no idea who I will be voting for, though, and am not leaning towards anyone (though there are some people I am leaning away from - notably Celuien, Hookbill, and probably Evisse and Lalaith).

phantom, based on what evidence we do have, your argument makes some sense (except it's not true, since I'm not a wolf :p ). I won't deny that two of the people on my list turned up innocent. But I will repeat: "That would be the worst thing for wolves to do would be to kill someone they brought especial attention to during the day - especially when there are so many to choose from." If I were a wolf, I would not have picked Azaelia, simply because I did bring attention to her as being on my suspicions list. As you've shown, killing Azaelia would give me the appearance of guilty - a contradiction of your #2: make a werewolf look innocent.

[Celuien]

Ah! Woe be unto me. It would appear that this poor innocent furrier is at the brunt of almost all accusations.

To my detractors I tell this to you; I am not a werewolf and you should all stop eyeing me. I did not vote in my last post before the lynching quite simply because I did not know that we had only a few minutes left, I thought we had two more hours to hear more arguments and detect any arguing and voting patterns. On my screen the time is now reflected as of typing is GMT 1252 am. So go figure...

Fair enough. There was a good bit of confusion yesterday with respect to time zones. As an aside for everyone, this site (http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/) might prove useful.


Also, I was sure I posted that absent villagers would not be lynched on DAY 1 as they wouldn't have the chance to tell fellow villagers that they wouldn't be there, but apparently it wasn't there when I checked the rules. Sorry about this, I'm editting it in (not that it matters now). Absentees will be lynched starting from the morrow.

That was the basis of my supposed "glee" and bloodthirst when I posted in regards to Anguirel and Esgallhugwen. I merely stated what the GM has confessed as misfacts.


I'm still a little bit uneasy about this. I realize that you were just restating the misinformation we had, but given the huge number of potentially dead villagers we could have had yesterday if this scenario had been in effect and a tie had been reached, I would have thought it incentive for a vote. Even if a vote was just to break the tie and not completely based on a suspicion. Better two automatic lynchings and only one voted lynching than a three way tie and the two rule-breaking deaths.

Firefoot has indeed pointed out that my last post was odd. That's true. But pray tell if I were a werewolf, why would I make myself such a prominent target? In any case you all can see that by the time voting ended - no one came forth and supported me or such. I was clearly on my own yesterday collaborating with no one whatsoever. So I thank you footie for your "endorsement" ;)
True, it wouldn't be the smartest move for a wolf. But it's also not to the wolves advantage to obviously look like they're working together.

Perhaps we should be looking closely at those who voted yesterday and rethinking the rationale behind their supposed reasons. ;)
Agreed. And I will be doing so before the vote.

The phantom's reasoning certainly has merit. I still can't quite convince myself of Eomer's guilt. But if Saurreg dies and turns out to be innocent, I'll have to reconsider my reasoning and look in his direction.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

All this theories of yours are flawed. You know why?

I am a Werewolf.

You see, we killed Azaelia because she was second on the alphabetical list of villagers. Anyone who's second on any list is scary. Add to that the fact that our ultimate plan is to find the cursed villager, who is said to bring balance to this game (i.e., there will be more of us). The cursed villager is probably not gifted, so we kill the silent ones.

Then there's this added advantage--we could put blame on the phantom, who could shift blame to Eomer. Because of this confusion, they'll both die. Muahahahaha!

Having said that, lynch me. Now.

Post-traumatic Possum. We intend to kill the gifted villagers through lynching, though. They taste bad. ;) (Sorry to any gifted villagers there.)

[littlemanpoet]

At least this time is appears that I will get a chance to vote quite late (unless a major disaster occurs at the shop), so I will probably hold off until then ... unless some werewolf mistakenly rears its ugly head by some mis-speech.

Being a newcomer to such turmoil as we have in this (formerly) fine village, I'm having a hard time knowing which end's up, so thanks, Firefoot, for the wonderful list. I hope that helps clarify things for me. I am understandably distressed to be voted for! And why? Mere suspicion? What did I do? What did I say? Ah, yes. I picked on Eomer as someone who made a Freudian slip, and I wouldn't let go. Now, did I not let go as some kind of werewolfish ploy? No. You see, I do put quite a bit of credence in the mistaken word, the 'oopses' in posting. Maybe that's too intuitional of me, but hey, that's me. Or did I not let go because it was at that time the only evidence I could see anywhere, however slim? The latter.

Eomer's post defending himself made me think that I had been wrong. I became convinced that Eomer was nothing more than a bad liar, trying to point at Lalaith to try and flush out a werewolf or three. At least, that was what I thought until I read the rather enlightening thoughts of a few others of you in regards to Eomer. I am frankly impressed with the phantom's erudition. He seems to know how these things go, and thus must be well read, and has an excellent grasp for strategy. I'd say that's gonna help, and I'm really worried that the werewolves are going to off him.

The problem I'm having is that the suspicions and vote that have already come out could be werewolves trying to influence the rest of us. That drives me nuts. For that reason, those suspicions and votes must be studied carefully or else we make yet another disastrous mistake. :eek:

Lalaith (voted for Kath) is astute, has a large vocabulary (which means what, LMP?), and has gotten into the game of double think. This merely means that she has a lot of noodles upstairs. She has bemoaned her own vote, but that's just good form. She has wondered about the phantom's brashness, as in why would one be so brash, unless one were a werewolf, but then did some double think and left that in a muddle.

Eomer (voted for Kath) accused Lalaith as a ploy, then voted for Kath to save his own skin. Smart. I still question if a werewolf could hold himself back from letting four or five villagers all get lynched at once? That's my main reason for thinking Eomer might be innocent. But why is he getting all suspicious about the phantom, whom I find it hard to suspect?

the phantom (voted for Esga) is looking more like an innocent all the time, despite Eomer's assertions to the contrary. While true that his morality seems to veer towards the more pragmatic, it could be argued that that is precisely what we need. So I tend to think that he is probably an innocent working to his strengths to help the rest of us "eliminate the distractors", as they say in those anachronistic detective novels (which don't exist yet but that's too bad).

Celuien (voted for Oddwen) seems (so far) pretty straight up analytical. Hard to know what to think of that. I don't think her suspicion of Oddwen is any more sure than she seems to have thought.

Feanor's (voted for Eomer) vote for me has really got me wondering. I know I'm innocent, and that obviously makes me suspect her. At first she sounded so concerned for the good of the village, and maybe her vote for me is just a (WRONG) shot in the dark, but maybe it's part of some twisted, evil plan. Wish I could be sure.

Firefoot (voted for Saurreg) does try to be helpful. Which doesn't really say much either way.

Did not vote:

Anguirel - (RL activities kept him away all day) Well, our mod explained this one, so he remains a mystery.

dancing spawn - (was confused about voting deadline) asks for reason and less fighting and liked the phantom's plan. Or at least says she did.

Esga (RL activities kept her away all day) had the same situation as Anguirel, so she also remains a mystery.

Evisse - (confused about voting deadline) seems innocent to me.

Hookbill - (missed voting due to power cut) isn't saying much one way or the other. A mystery.

littlemanpoet ( missed voting) is not a werewolf. Plain and simple. Being new to this kind of thing, I'm liable to make some stupid mistakes in reasoning from time to time, but am quite educable. And confusable. :p

Nilpaurion is a mystery.

Oddwen's question about using the phantom's plan later in the game seemed rather harmless to me.

Saurreg - (left in the middle of voting without voting) does seem to lend himself to suspicion. But who's to say?

Two thoughts about the werewolves.

First. It has been suggested that they're stupid. What werewolves would seem stupid? One option would be those who haven't been involved in this kind of thing before, which I realize lumps me in with them, but that's one thing I can think of, and I know I'm not a werewolf. Or they have someone who is a master strategist leading the way. Um, who amongst us fills the bill? Whereas it's true that the phantom fits that bill, I still find it hard to imagine that he is playing the double game. Eomer seems pretty talented that way too. So do Celuien and Lalaith.

Second. Just a suggestion. Wouldn't the Seer be more effective if still alive toward the end of the game when the chances of dreaming of a werewolf are a better odds? Wouldn't it be therefore better if the Seer remained silent early? Granted, such a strategy runs the risk of the Seer being killed accidentally either by village lynchers along the way, or the werewolves, but might it not help us in the long run if the Seer kept quiet about his/her dreams until late in the game? Maybe I'm all wet, but I maybe this might help us win in the end.

I'm bushed. Dragging. That was a lot of work. So who are my primary suspects? Um, one more read over what I've written a sec.....: I guess my top suspects are Eomer, Saurreg, and dancing spawn. Sorry if I'm wrong.

EDIT: I just read Nilpaurion's latest gem of a post. What are we to make of that? Why would anybody say "I'm a werewolf, lynch me"? To cause greater confusion? Nil, you've succeeded. :eek: My first thought is Nil's just playing with all of us, and could not possibly be a werewolf, because a real werewolf wouldn't try to get himself offed. On the other hand, why would an innocent claim to be a werewolf and risk a lynching? Is it because this person agrees with the phantom and is virtually volunteering? Possibly. Or is this the cursed villager who really would rather be a werewolf? The last thing we want to do is add to the werewolf population. At any rate, my analysis is that Nil is not a werewolf but may want to become one(?).

[Saurreg]

True, it wouldn't be the smartest move for a wolf. But it's also not to the wolves advantage to obviously look like they're working together.

Exactly. But even if the those furry snarling vermins were to have "acted" surely they would not have overdone it would they? Our enemies are very resourceful and cunning. This I'll give them.

The phantom's reasoning certainly has merit. I still can't quite convince myself of Eomer's guilt. But if Saurreg dies and turns out to be innocent, I'll have to reconsider my reasoning and look in his direction.

Ole Sauggy, the beloved furrier need not die today if everyone takes a good close look at all the arguments and reasoning posted so far. ;)

Although Firefoot voted for Saurreg yesterday, Azaelia and Kath were both on her suspect list, and both proven innocent. It could be that either Oddwen or Saurreg (or both) is a werewolf and that Azaelia was chosen to discredit that list. They could also be attempting to cast suspicion on Firefoot by showing that two of her four suspects were innocents. Of course, accusing an innocent on the first day doesn't mean much. I'm just trying to find some logic in Azaelia's death. I don't think she accused anyone yesterday, but I will check again to be sure.

Two dead out of a list of four - that's one out of two. I think this is reason enough already to suspect a pattern is in play here. Let's have a deal Celuien; since the odds are stacked against me and should my life be forfeited today, promise me you will look eye Firefoot carefully, especially if she votes for me again.

Someone else has already pointed out that footie voted for me the last round and am leaning towards me again. She herself admitted that she only voted for me because they was no obvious target at all- a stab in the dark if you like and all because of my post last night (which I have explained myself). Now even before I have posted for this round, she has already chosen to make me her target. I do not know why she would do so even though many of the villagers have not even posted yet. Sounds pretty vindictive to me.

Another person to look out for is Eomer - of all the accused he could pick, he picked innocent Kath. Now he is looking out for me and The phantom. I believe he is only using the latter as a screen and his target is yours truly also. Think about it, if Phantom and I were werewolves in cahoots, why would we have been so obvious?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

If you took my post above seriously, don't. ;)

phantom, how sure are we that you are not using Eomer's words to bounce the blame? How sure are we that you are not doing what you said he is doing--making an innocent look guilty? Hmm?

But don't worry. You're relatively low on my wolf-metre--relatively, because most of you folks look canine to me:


Anguirel is still not here. If he does show up on the last minute toDAY, I'll starts some serious chin-scratching and humming.


Celuien, spawn, Esgallhugwen, Evisse, Firefoot, Lalaith and Hookbill seem to have succeeded in turning the focus away from themselves. Hmmm . . .


Eomer of the Rohirrim, Saurreg, and the phantom are obvious suspects, and I trust the reasoning why they are. But one never knows if they are just the victims of the real wolves's plot.


Feanor of the Peredhil is attracts too much attention for a wolf, although if I were a wolf, that's one of the best ways to hide myself.


littlemanpoet is wonderfully poetic. Which doesn't make him not a werewolf.


Nilpaurion Felagund. Obviously a wolf. Lynch him. :p


Oddwen has posted but once yesterDAY. This noncommital of hers may imply something . . .


Now, I have to vote. 1700GMT is 0100PST. (Thanks for the concern, Firefoot. :) ) Now, since I really have no-one who looks more suspicious than the others, I have to choose one who is just . . . odd.

++ODDWEN

[the phantom]

To my detractors I tell this to you; I am not a werewolf and you should all stop eyeing me. I did not vote in my last post before the lynching quite simply because I did not know that we had only a few minutes left, I thought we had two more hours to hear more arguments and detect any arguing and voting patterns. On my screen the time is now reflected as of typing is GMT 1252 am. So go figure...
After seeing this, I would suggest leaving Saurreg alone for the time being.

Not voting is the main reason we have to accuse Saurreg, but there were TEN other people who did not vote, so this hardly sets him apart.

Wouldn't you prefer to lynch someone who has more solid evidence against them (in the way of theories and such)?
phantom, based on what evidence we do have, your argument makes some sense (except it's not true, since I'm not a wolf
Well, my theory left room for you not to be a wolf since I named four people (Eomer, Oddwen, Feanor, and you).

Remember earlier today when I said this-
If Eomer is a wolf, then it is very likely that either Esgal, Oddwen, or Saurreg is also a wolf (I suspect Esgal the most of these three, mainly because I haven't heard from her). You see, Eomer popped in at the end to break a five-way tie. Even though his name was one of the names on the list, a smart wolf would have voted for a sixth person and taken five innocents with them to the grave. Five innocents is too juicy a prize to pass up. The only way a wolf would break a five-way tie is if there was another wolf besides himself on the list, because killing four innocents is not worth the price of two out of three wolves.
That reasoning would agree with my theory of Oddwen being a wolf. It seems to me that Eomer's death might be the most useful in determining other wolves. What do you think?

Good thoughts, lmp. I'd like to answer a couple of questions you asked.
Second. Just a suggestion. Wouldn't the Seer be more effective if still alive toward the end of the game when the chances of dreaming of a werewolf are a better odds?
Yes.
Wouldn't it be therefore better if the Seer remained silent early?
Not necessarily.

If the seer is quiet and then gets killed, there is no way of knowing what dreams the seer had. And seer dreams are the most valuable thing that a village can possibly be given.

Because of that, staying quiet is a huge risk.

It will probably keep the wolves off the seer's back at night since they won't suspect him/her to be the seer, but it might get the seer lynched during the day.

If the seer decides to be quiet, then the seer would definitely want to keep a close eye on things particularly at the end of the day and if it looks like his/her life is going to be ended by the votes of the village, he/she should immediately divulge all of the information in his/her possesion.

So- being quiet keeps the seer safe from the wolves, but it could be disasterous if the seer is killed without leaving us any clues.

[Saurreg]

Saurreg offered a little "O, well done old boy! It's nice to see someone thinking about the good of the village, even though the plan itself isn't perfect." Clearly, the werewolf's way of protecting his ally yet keeping him at arm's length.

It fits together. (And yes, I am aware that just about every theory 'fits together' and that coherentism is a rubbish theory of truth.)

But there you have my two suspects: the phantom and Saurreg.

If yesterday was anything to go by, don't listen to me. But realise that if the phantom is innocent, the werewolves will kill him tonite if we don't lynch him. So we won't actually lose anything (except, perhaps, the phantom's occasional jovial nature! )

Allow this uncouth furrier to laugh in your face. HAHAHAHHAHA!!!

Everybody could see for miles that The Phantom and I complimented one another and you were the only one naive enough to use this a the basis of your rationale.

Of course no one would listen to you now that you have been cast a suspect also. :p

"So we won't actually lose anything" That's a very careless and haughty joke to make doncha think - belittling the importance of lynching an innocent individual? Are you sure you're not a werewolf? :D

We have so many villagers in this round and you have already set your sights on yours truly even without waiting for the others to post, you and Firefoot. What's to say the both of you aren't "complimenting" each other also.

[Celuien]

Two dead out of a list of four - that's one out of two. I think this is reason enough already to suspect a pattern is in play here. Let's have a deal Celuien; since the odds are stacked against me and should my life be forfeited today, promise me you will look eye Firefoot carefully, especially if she votes for me again.

Okay, that's a deal. I am currently much less suspicious of you.

LMP - my vote for Oddwen wasn't anything more than a guess prompted by her question, which could very well have been innocent. It was purely a shot in the dark on the first day. Although I am starting to wonder about her silence today, especially in light of the phantom's theories.

It's awfully late for me. I should take a nap in preparation for the upcoming events.

[Saurreg]

I thank you Celuien for your promise. But if you turn out to be a werewolf mastermind toying with me, may the bite of a thousand feas be upon you!

The more I read the more suspicious I am of Eomer and Firefoot. The druken sailor and vendor of rottened fruits have been the most direct in their accusations in this round - even before they got to read the posts of other villagers in this large village of ours. It would seem that they are either unwilling or unable to sit back, let the posts flow in and try to detect patterns and such. Without much solid evidence or sound analyse they have narrowed down their choice of victims to The Phantom and me in an amazingly short time.

I may not have a chance to do so later and so I cast my vote against ++Eomer of the Rohirrim with a suggestion that we drown him. Should I get my way this evening then I will turn my sights onto Firefoot.

In either case should I get lynched or murdered tonight, let this post be my last Testimonial statement and contribution to the village.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Phantom and Eomer seem to be the biggest contenders for werewolfhood at the momnet. I doubt that they both are, unless they are being incredibly clever... hum, it's going to be hard to cast a vote... *ponders* Sorry, but the phantom seems too overly suspicious to be a w-w. So, my vote goes to

++ Eomer.

:( Sorry, if you're innocent... But unless he’s been cleverer than I’ve given him credit for, you seem the more likely than phantom at the moment.

[Anguirel]

A dastardly crime has been perpetrated, villagers. To adminster justice, I am forced to circulate the land without roof nor stock above my weary head. I thus sleep alone, in the wild, unguarded, under my favourite blanket of tawny tartan. It is still often chilly, and I occasionally have a dram of whisky to keep myself warm.

I should have noticed that the whisky was slightly darker than usual as I glugged it down. I fell into a long, dark, sleep, troubled by flibbertigibbets and purple cockroaches, and the howling of some vast and terrible beast. All this, I fear, was caused by some noxious drug slipped in my whisky. There is someone in this village with something to hide...with murder to hide...who would rather not have the judge awake.

It was only thanks to the benevolence of a passing Elven healer that I recovered my senses. I borrowed a horse and rode hard back to the village gate, my heart filled with dread...and then it was that tidings of woe and of slaughter reached my aching ears.

I shall pass judgement soon. But first you must judge me, for a brehon's character must be unimpeachable. While I investigate the facts, listen to my tale and determine whether I deserve punishment or pity.

((Blasted internet connection...))

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Right. Just.....hold on a few moments, alright? This madness has to stop. I'll post again very soon. It may take me 10 minutes or whatever so just hold on if you feel the need to vote for me. Just take a deep breath....

[Evisse the Blue]

After having listened carefully to all of you, I am very confused but I'll assure everyone I won't miss voting this time. On my list of suspects are Eomer, Fea, Saurreg, phantom, Oddwen, Lalaith, Firefoot. *shrugs* well, that's my list. About half of the population.
I'm gonna wait before I cast my vote to give Eomer the chance to defend himself, he's earned the benefit of the doubt here.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

On DAY 1, there were five villagers who attracted votes. One is now dead. So there were four obvious suspects in the village at the start of the day. Why on Middle-earth would a wolf-Eomer (who already had adversaries in Fea, who voted for him, and littlemanpoet, and likely the rest of the village angry with me for killing the Guardian) why would this wolf-Eomer then go all out to lynch the phantom and Saurreg? It's not because of any 'special powers'; I think I have pretty good reasons.

Phantom, whether you like it or not, you will not last long. What I hope is that we lynch you tonight and get to burn your foul werewolf carcass. This seems pretty unlikely because most villagers think you are innocent. The werewolves are likely to go after you in the night if you are innocent. Regardless of what happens, suspicion over you will not rest and the villagers will lynch you in the next couple of days. I'm sorry, but you brought it on yourself with this plan of yours.

You accuse Werewolf-Eomer of thinking the phantom and Saurreg to be the Shirrifs. This is a straightforward role-reversal of my actual opinion that you are both werewolves, because you are labelling me as a werewolf and thus a werewolf must think you two are Shirrifs (apologies for the awful wording). This does not make sense. I came to separate conclusions that you are different werewolves, and the little correspondence between you two simply sweetened the deal. If I know that you are both innocent, it is utterly ridiculous for Werewolf-Eomer to assume that you two are the Shirrifs because of that one tiny comment. That's lazy reasoning from you, and frankly I would expect better from an innocent villager.

This is how the phantom chose to avoid suspicion over Azaelia's death: I would have made a better kill and you know it Eomer. Um....actually I don't know it. What would constitute a better kill? Apart from you phantom, I see no better kills in this village. There are a couple who were safe and many who were options for the snarling beasts. You accuse me of killing Azaelia? Well, I can offer no real defence. It certainly fits together. Just like it would fit in the plans of every other villager. So I'm not going to offer a half-baked defence because there is none. Oh, apart from 'I didn't do it'. But what's the point in saying that?

'Azaelia was extremely unlikely to be gifted' - Ok, but who else was? Except you, of course, phantom.

You seem to think that you are being set up phantom. Well, I can tell you a little story about someone who is being set up. A certain sea-faring rapscallion who finds himself being mercilessly attacked by the wolves, simply because he spotted a mistake. How clever of you to get the I'm being set up! chant going before anyone else, phantom. What better way to gain sympathy? It disgusts me. The person who is crying about set ups is the very one who knows their ins and outs better than any other. The phantom is very clever but that will not save him. Not in the end.

As for Saurreg, his defence does not satisfy. Even if he did think that voting hours would be extended, he did say that he probably wouldn't need to vote. His contribution smacked of a 'Well, goodnight! Try to sleep well' No indication that he would come back to vote later on. No suspects really mentioned and no proper defences offered.

And just notice the desparate wolves helping each other out. I know the phantom's next move, the one he makes when my striking corpse is floating in the sea; he will turn on his wolf ally. Or would have done had I not guessed this. O no, you two are in it deep now.

Whichever one you want to choose my friends. It seems like I will attract more votes but so be it. The phantom and Saurreg are two of our werewolves, that is my guess. If you decide to kill me then I won't be (too) angry. After all, the wolves are deviously tricky. But when my innocent body is there for you all to cry over, remember my words.

I'll be back to vote later; whichever one, the phantom or Saurreg, offers me the best chance of staying alive I will choose, though I fully expect to be leading the way. It's two wolves against one innocent. The odds are not in my favour.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If he is neither gifted nor werewolf, the phantom suggests that he should be immune from volunteering for the plan - because he acts as a suspect. The werewolves will always wonder whether he is gifted, probably go for him, and lo and behold! it was a ploy and they have murdered the innocent and ungifted phantom.

What's the point in this, when no-one was voting until late on DAY 1? I think the phantom made the second or third vote (could be wrong, it was something like that). The only previous vote was Lalaith's apparent shot in the dark towards Kath.

You might as well have offered yourself up, ol' boy. It wasn't as if the rest of us had more pressing choices.

And before anyone points it out again; yes, there is a good chance that the phantom is a gifted villager. There is also a good chance that he is a werewolf, certainly more so than practically every other villager.

I'll point this out again too: the phantom, if innocent, will not last long. Yes phantom, this is a very convenient thing for Werewolf-Eomer to say. It's also convenient for every innocent villager to notice this. I realise that you have a reputation for being clever. You may well be the cleverest one among us. However, the rest of the village should not diminish and should not be encouraged to. Villagers should never be immune because of their intelligence.

[Evisse the Blue]

The thing I am the most certain of is that everyone was up for grabs by the wererwolves tonight. Including the phantom. He himself predicted this. Why wasn't he killed? For the werewolves, even if they reached the conclusion the phantom is not gifted, he would still be viewed as an important asset to the villagers. His reasoning is logical, and most of us have the tendency to follow his lead, don't we? Even if we start by arguing against him, we're not likely to hold that position for long, right, Fea?

The reason he gave for him not getting killed (that he was going to be lynched the next day) does not sit well with me. Why would the werewolves risk a certain murder over an uncertain lynching? Because no one can predict for certain who will be lynched the next day, whether they're villagers or werewolves, nor can they predict the general way the accusations will be headed the next day. Unless of course, the werewolves are loudmouths whose aim is to lead the crowd towards voting for a certain someone.

So, if Eomer is a werewolf, he would have to gain support from people who would be as certain of the phantom's guilt as he is. But I don't really see this happening and the deadline is fast approaching. In fact, all is see is people as uncertain of the phantom's innocence as I am. I tend to see more people leaning towards Eomer being guilty, which will make it more certain that he gets lynched than the phantom.

Now, a big part of me tends to think they are both innocent, with nothing but a subjective feeling to support this.

Anyway, I will not vote for either of them. I will vote for ++ Lalaith which is more of a strategical vote than a 100 % suspicion and hope more people will come to vote. Still half an hour to go and some of you promised they'd be here.

EDIT: Oh God, y'all should lynch me for being dumb. :rolleyes: :p I should check Celuien's link to time zones, because apparently it's much earlier than I thought....there's plenty of time to go still...*curses poor time orientation* Well, anyway, my vote and reasoning are not affected by this minor (though dumb! :o ) oversight.

[Celuien]

Well now, there have certainly been lots of developments... :eek:

Saurreg suspects Eomer (voted) and Firefoot.

the phantom says Saurreg is innocent and vice versa. The phantom also thinks that:
1) Eomer is a wolf who picked Azaelia to set him up, or
2) There's a Firefoot, Oddwen and Fea lupine triumvirate if my theory that Azaelia was killed to make Oddwen/Saurreg look innocent is correct. He thinks this is less probable than the Eomer theory.

Eomer suspects the phantom and Saurreg very strongly. Entirely understandable if he's innocent since they've come out equally strongly against him.

Fea's suspect list consists of the phantom, dancing spawn, Eomer and LMP. Her vote today is going to LMP. I see no particular reason to suspect dancing spawn or LMP since they wouldn't have accomplished much by killing Azaelia and Azaelia's death is the only concrete evidence of wolvish thinking that we have right now.

I honestly believe that lynching Eomer is a mistake. The only evidence against him is the now notorious slip from day 1 and the phantom's theory that he is involved in a frame-up connected to the death of Azaelia. But Azaelia's death didn't particularly cast suspicion on the phantom more than it could have been used against anyone else.

I don't particularly think that the phantom is a wolf either. The wolves wouldn't pick him simply because he generates so much controversy, whether he looks suspicious or not, that it's easy for them to hide in the background.

Which leaves me with the problem of fitting a pattern to this madness. I haven't discounted the possibility that the wolves' pick last night was as random as our choices yesterday and that they are howling with glee at our attempts to fit their actions into a masterful plan. I'm going to have to make my choice soon and I have quite a dilemma in that none of the current leaders in the vote count strikes me as a furry beast. My selection of Oddwen yesterday was more or less a blind stab, although her guilt does fit in nicely with theory above. The vote is going to have to be one that gives us information. If Eomer is innocent, my attention will go directly to the phantom, Saurreg and Firefoot. If he turns out to be a wolf, I'll be absolutely certain of Saurreg's innocence - although I'm not as suspicious of him now as I was earlier, I'm also not 100% convinced that I shouldn't vote for him. What a tangle.

Incidentally, I'm no werewolf mastermind. Somehow, I have a sinking feeling that I'm going to be someone's midnight snack.

[Anguirel]

I have heard the charges of the pursuants, the legatees, the apologists and the prosecution as lain down in the minutes kept in the Village Hall.

I shall begin with a question: if a man is killed by another man, and not by a ravening beast, is his killer not still a murderer, and should he not still be punished? Should we allow the wolves of Tol-in-Gaurhoth to corrode our justice system, our ancient laws, bonds, and rights, our morality, in its entirety? Or should we fight for them?

I maintain that we should; and that the phantom's scheme of "voluntary lynching" was nothing less than an intimation to murder or suicide, which goes against all the tenets of man and of Eru. Whether or not moonlight reveals hair on the phantom's palms, then, he deserves punishment! But for myself, I am inclined to believe that fur does coruscate about him when the lunatic light shines. Our honest and eloquent sailor Eomer has acquitted himself well in words as he has no doubt previously done at the cutlass's edge. Besides, the healer's high estimate of his own worth thoroughly deserves a little humbling. No true officer of the law or visionary of light would show such swollen bombast.

As for the wet-nurse Lalaith, I am fairly convinced of her innocence; she was caught in mischance, terrible fate, that cast our poor Ranger from Arda. More may be found hereafter; and truly, tales have been told of she-wolves suckling bairns; but for the moment; I clear her. Next!

Nilpaurion Felagund. If a Werewolf, he is a debonair one. However, so far only his own, somewhat colourful confession points at him...and I would argue it points for him.

And the furrier, Saurreg...this is an unfortunate man or a sly creature. If he is guilty, the phantom is further implicated; but to use him as a touchstone would be grossly unfair, seeing as he is snared in his defence of his fellow villager. I believe the healer is likely to be backed up elsewhere, whereas if the furrier is a foe, the healer is almost assuredly alongside him. the phantom is thus the shrewder target.

I shall, therefore, vote that ++the phantom (hereinafter called "the condemned") be hanged by the neck until he is dead. The law has spoken.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

A vote for Lalaith? Now that's interesting....

When I am dead all suspicion will turn towards the phantom. He will point out that I had no real knowledge and thus my opinions are not valid.

But...

I hope I have been able to show that the phantom's death is inevitable and that his lynching will not be much worse than his death by werewolf.

the phantom is a dead man walking. We might as well choose him now. I don't think he is the Seer as the Seer probably would not claim the limelight right at the start of the game. I can't see any reason to vote for Lalaith. Unfortunately, I can see a reason in voting for me. :( The phantom is clever, and he has brilliantly attacked me with everything he has. He is scared. You can all see that.

At least my death will not be in vain.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Just saw Anguirel's vote: there is a chance.

++ THE PHANTOM

There is my vote.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

she (spawn) hadn't posted very often. Thrice, to be exact. She made comments on what was going on, and she made certain that she was actually there, but at the same time, she was not contributing personal opinions. That makes me nervous.
As odd as it may sound I don't have time to hang online 24/7. I post when I'm available to post and that's it. I make comments about what's going on simply to clarify my own thoughts. While you "loudmouths" fill pages with your quarrel, I want to sum up what I feel is essential.I'm more comfortable around loudmouths
Yeah, yeah, birds of the same feather flock together :p


And here are some "personal opinions" for you all.

Azaelia opposed phantom's plan (post #60). She said that she doesn't think that tp's a werewolf, though. Later Azaelia said that "you (phantom) seem to be suspicious of me".
Wether Azaelia's death is a frame up for turning us against phantom (as many of you have mentioned) or then somebody's double bluffing... who? -I haven't figured that out yet but somehow I don't find phantom very suspicious.

Celuien, spawn, Esgallhugwen, Evisse, Firefoot, Lalaith and Hookbill seem to have succeeded in turning the focus away from themselves. Hmmm . . .
I don't know about the others but in my case this is as it should be. Sure the focus should be on the wolves rather than innocent villagers. ;) Of course, if you lynch me then we can as well follow phantom's plan.

I'm not as suspicious of Saurreg as I was earlier. Somehow I sympathize with his deadline confusion.

EDIT: Could I possibly be any slower writer?!

EDIT2:

Here are the votes thus far (hope I didn't miss anyone):
Fea: lmp
Nilp: Oddwen
Saurreg: Eomer
Hookbill: Eomer
Anguirel: phantom
Eomer: phantom
Evisse: Lalaith

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Evisse voted for Lalaith.

[Celuien]

Current vote count: Eomer and Phantom tied at two votes each, one for Oddwen and one for lmp.

At this point, it looks like either Eomer or Phantom will be the victim today. Neither option appeals to me, but I don't think anyone else is going to garner enough votes for a lynching. I've decided against voting for Saurreg today because even though I'm not totally satisified with his defense, I'm no longer certain enough to cast my vote. Even if I did vote for him, I don't think the rest of the village would go along.

Nilp's repeated confessions look like he's following through with my idea that a wolf could use volunteering as a method of hiding out in the open. Unfortunately, I don't see enough evidence to vote for him either.

I'd also like to point out that Oddwen is going to have to stop in on the debate soon or face becoming our automatic lynchee. I hope that she comes - this silence is making me very uneasy. I can't decide if her non-appearance to due to RL, or a wolf strategy. If Oddwen is a wolf, she could be avoiding the proceedings to prevent our gathering enough suspicion to want to vote for her and then stepping in at the last minute to prevent the automatic clause from coming into effect. Last minute votes could also be a useful strategy to cause tied votes or to rescue a wolf.

I think I've made up my mind. Oddwen has made me uneasy enough by silence to bring back my suspicions from yesterday. I really, really do not want to vote for Eomer or Phantom. My other suspect, Saurreg, is probably not going to be lynched even if I do vote for him, nor would his death as a wolf give me very much information. There is a chance that since Oddwen has a vote from Nilp that we can lynch her today. Even if she's innocent,voting for her could avert a double-lynching of an innocent if she doesn't come in before the deadline. And I want to test my theory on [a]Azaelia's[/b] death. FIanlly, if she is a wolf, I'll really be wondering about Nilp on the basis of separting himself from Oddwen by his vote and the repeated confessions.

++ODDWEN (hoping this doesn't become a tie).

EDIT: just saw spawn's edit for the vote count. I'm such a slow typer...

[the phantom]

Well- no matter who gets lynched today, this will definitely go down as one of the most fascinating/entertaining rounds of voting ever.

One thing that I am wondering about- why did Fea vote for lmp over Eomer? She voted for Eomer yesterday so why didn't she do it again?

Perhaps she only voted for him on day one because she knew that he was waiting to break the tie with his vote and that he would not actually die. In other words, it was an opportunity for a wolf to vote for another wolf when the voting still appeared to be "undecided".

Where as today, Fea thought that her vote might actually end up tipping the scales, so she picked a third person to vote for rather than her wolf friend or his primary opponent.

Not that all that's necessarily true. Just a theory.
If I know that you are both innocent, it is utterly ridiculous for Werewolf-Eomer to assume that you two are the Shirrifs because of that one tiny comment.
Why? Wouldn't that be exaxctly the way the Sheriffs would point to themselves?
And just notice the desparate wolves helping each other out. I know the phantom's next move, the one he makes when my striking corpse is floating in the sea; he will turn on his wolf ally.
First, I am not a wolf.

Second, I am not planning on turning on Saurreg.
You might as well have offered yourself up, ol' boy.
I have offered myself up somewhat- but to the wolves! Not to the village as a lynching suspect!
I'll point this out again too: the phantom, if innocent, will not last long.
Wrong. If I am right about you then I will likely die tonight, that is true, but if I am wrong about you then there is no way the wolves will kill me tonight since they will know that the village will be ready to lynch me the following day.
And before anyone points it out again; yes, there is a good chance that the phantom is a gifted villager.
I think you are saying that to cover yourself.

You are hoping I am gifted and then when I turn out to be you will say "Hey, guys, don't blame me- I did say I was worried he might be a gifted villager, after all. Sorry 'bout that, phantom."
I maintain that we should; and that the phantom's scheme of "voluntary lynching" was nothing less than an intimation to murder or suicide
For a man of the law you don't have a very good head for such things.

I seem to recall a story of one who was without sin who offered himself up for the good of the people.

Did he sin in doing so?

No, that was heroism.

I was asking someone to be a hero, yesterday.

And as you can see from the lynching yesterday in which we killed our valuable ranger, the villagers should have adopted my plan.
I shall, therefore, vote that ++the phantom (hereinafter called "the condemned") be hanged by the neck until he is dead. The law has spoken.
What a pity that "the law" is so very wrong.

And now there appears to be a three way tie between Eomer, Oddwen, and our arrogant healer.

This is not exactly what I expected.

At least more votes are getting cast this time. We will certainly have more to examine tomorrow than we did today.

If you are innocent, Eomer, then sorry but it was just your bad fortune that you went after me today. Since last night I have had it in my head that the wolves would only leave me alive if they were going to try and lynch me today, and you stepped right into my prediction, so I hope you don't blame me.

Either you are a wolf or you just have awful timing.

But you shouldn't have been going after me in the first place. There is a very obvious reason why, and I am sure that at least a couple of my fellow villagers have spotted it.

Are you unlucky- or are you a wolf?

I suggest that we find out.

+ + Eomer

[Firefoot]

I seem to have attracted a lot of suspicion while I've been asleep, from Saurreg in particular. I must say that this feels very much like a knee-jerk reaction. Whereas phantom's arguments actually are based on such knowledge as we have, Saurreg's tend to follow this pattern:Someone else has already pointed out that footie voted for me the last round and am leaning towards me again. She herself admitted that she only voted for me because they was no obvious target at all- a stab in the dark if you like and all because of my post last night (which I have explained myself). Now even before I have posted for this round, she has already chosen to make me her target. I do not know why she would do so even though many of the villagers have not even posted yet. Sounds pretty vindictive to me. For one thing, did you read my last post? I stated pretty implicitly that I was not leaning towards anyone at the moment, and in an earlier post I said that I wanted to hear what you (and some others) wanted to say before passing judgment. Yes, I find myself suspicious of you, and you are doing nothing to dispel those suspicions (though I do accept your reason for not voting yesterday. My suspicions are no longer based on that). However, you are not my 'target.' I seem to be yours, though, for the mere reason that I voted for and "passed judgment" on you. And, please, don't call me "footie." Nothing against you, there, just commenting.

I am still uneasy with all this voting for Eomer and phantom, for similar reasons as Celuien stated: I honestly believe that lynching Eomer is a mistake. The only evidence against him is the now notorious slip from day 1 and the phantom's theory that he is involved in a frame-up connected to the death of Azaelia. But Azaelia's death didn't particularly cast suspicion on the phantom more than it could have been used against anyone else.

I don't particularly think that the phantom is a wolf either. The wolves wouldn't pick him simply because he generates so much controversy, whether he looks suspicious or not, that it's easy for them to hide in the background. So, that being said, I will cast my vote for ++ODDWEN. I think she is more likely to be a wolf than either Eomer or phantom.

[Saurreg]

Friend Phantom remains true! How can anyone doubt his innocence (or even mine)? Forgive me if I'm wrong but if he was a cunning and scheming werewolf, would he have remained steadfast and honorable to the very end? Sticking to his point of view? He would have done exactly what Eomer has predicted and waited to the very end to point a finger at me. But here he is, marking up and confirming his choice even when any shift in balance might happen.

There are fifteen villagers left and seven voted before Phantom cast his. With the odds increasingly stacked against him, why would he not have waited until the next seven votes are cast or when the dateline is reached before making a gambit to save his own skin?

*points at Eomer*

False charlatan! Thy doom is near!

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Oooh, its hoting up! It seems, at time of writing, to be a three-way tie, Eomer, Phantom and Oddwen. That's odd *groan*, the case against Oddwen is interesting, although I am less suspicious at the moment, this could grow depending on how today's votes go. I'll be watching carefully.

Just to update spawn's list; this is how it stands...

Fea: lmp
Nilp: Oddwen
Saurreg: Eomer
Hookbill: Eomer
Anguirel: phantom
Eomer: phantom
Evisse: Lalaith
Celuien: Oddwen
the phantom: Eomer
Firefoot: Oddwen

Leading (or losing?) people:
Eomer (3 votes)
Oddwen (3 Votes)
Phantom(2 Votes)
LMP (1 vote)
Lalaith (1 Vote)

As the returning officer I... er... sorry, wrong poles. :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

In answer to Saurreg's question, the phantom really wants me out of this game. He also thinks it likely that, out of the remaining villagers, more will vote for I than Oddwen. And this attack on Oddwen seems mightily strange to me. Don't be surprised that the phantom voted for me, even though there be a couple of hours left.

I think finding the Shirriffs will be much harder than finding the wolves. We all give each other nice little comments here and there.

Also phantom, I am not wrong about your status as dead man walking. If the werewolves don't kill you tonite because they think the villagers will lynch you tomorrow.........then the villagers will lynch you tomorrow and you will be dead.

Ladies and gentlemen, the phantom will not last many more days. He will die soon. He is more likely to be a werewolf than any other villager. He is also more likely to be a gifted villager than any other villager. It's worth taking the chance, especially because Death is on his doorstep anyway.

Also, the phantom is utterly correct in saying that I am inserting a get-out clause in my contract. I do think there is a good chance he is a gifted villager. But I hope that everyone can see that his death is inevitable, and the sooner it happens the sooner this confusion shall be cleared.

I'll say right now that I won't be sorry if he turns out to be innocent. He himself has given everyone reasons to be suspicious of him. He is the most sensible choice to lynch. It's not like Kath, who did not really offer any good reason for us to lynch her, and for whom I feel terribly sorry.


Sorry for yammering on and on. I do agree with the phantom on this: that today's voting and debate has been extraordinarily fun and frantic. I just hope it proves useful in the end.

[Celuien]

In answer to Saurreg's question, the phantom really wants me out of this game. He also thinks it likely that, out of the remaining villagers, more will vote for I than Oddwen. And this attack on Oddwen seems mightily strange to me. Don't be surprised that the phantom voted for me, even though there be a couple of hours left.

Well, as I said, the main reason I voted for Oddwen is that I don't think you're a werewolf and am also unsure about Phantom. Plus, she's a prime candidate for an automatic lynching right now and I'd rather vote for an innocent (if she is innocent, which I'm not sure of) who's out anyway for not saying much than a possible innocent who has a chance to stay in, if you follow me. One lynching is better than two from the villager's population advantage standpoint.

[Oddwen]

A-ha! So a body's only able to make one post and you're afraid of her? Hmph.

To clarify my last (and only) statement, I merely meant that the phantom's plan didn't have a following and was not likely to be picked up on that day, and I was wondering if it could be implemented later and if it would be profitable for the villagers.

I can't decide if her non-appearance to due to RL, or a wolf strategy.
RL, my dear Celly, unfortunate RL.

I also find your "stab-in-the-dark" theory suspicious.

And Lé Hookbill -
although I am less suspicious at the moment, this could grow depending on how today's votes go
So...you're most suspicious of the people who get the most votes?

And oooh, Zali's death may have been perpetrated by dumb wolves...that can only mean...hang the village idiot!


And something else. Firefoot was concerned about Nilp's vastly different timezone, and Nilp was grateful. Was Ff perhaps concerned because Nilp has had trouble participating in Werewolfery Counsel? Though that could mean that they are the Sherriffs.
Hmmmmmmmmm. Perhaps Nilp only volunteered yesterday because he knew that the Phantom's plan wouldn't go, and Nilp would sound like the "hero". Wouldn't you just loooooooove to be the hero, Nilpsie?
His insistence could be true...though would Adam and Alice give him any peace if he was telling the truth? :p


And Saurreg's last post seems to point that he and the Phantom are in cahoots...on whose side, I don't know. That's how it seems to me, don't hurt me Phantom *whimper*

Edit just saw Celuien's post: So...you're wasting a vote on someone who you think will be killed anyway? I find the attack against me indeed strange, and thee unsettling.

++CELUIEN

[Saurreg]

In answer to Saurreg's question, the phantom really wants me out of this game. He also thinks it likely that, out of the remaining villagers, more will vote for I than Oddwen. And this attack on Oddwen seems mightily strange to me. Don't be surprised that the phantom voted for me, even though there be a couple of hours left.

Presumption is dangerous and I do not think it is The Phantom's way. Not especially when there were seven to be made. I doubt anyone here would want gamble on such odds.

If you garner more votes then that is because you have made yourself too great a suspect to be ignored. :p

I also question the rationale behind Oddwen's votes (i.e votes against her). In her post she pointed out that the Phantom's plan had both an advantage and also a flaw. She then questioned if the method could also be adopted for latter stages.

Interesting.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

So...you're most suspicious of the people who get the most votes?

No, what I meant was which way you voted. If you'd voted Eomer or phantom, I'd be a little less suspicious... but now seeing who you did vote for, my whole theories of who is a wear-wolf and who isn't has been a little shaken. So if you are a w-w, I take my hat off to you.

[Oddwen]

I also find your "stab-in-the-dark" theory suspicious.
What I meant was that I found your "stab-in-the-dark" against me yesterday rather suspicious - if you were an unwiser wolf you doubtless would have gone for Ang or Esgall who were no-shows yesterday, but you went for a side-show instead. Your insistence upon me today seems to point towards wanting folks to think that you don't change horses in the middle of the stream.

Also - if I make it through to tomorrow, things are looking in RL that I won't be able to post Saturday.

Edit - Hookbill:

If you'd voted Eomer or phantom, I'd be a little less suspicious... If I jumped on the bandwagon, you mean?

So if you are a w-w, I take my hat off to you. So that I can get to your neck easier? You are too kind. :rolleyes:

[Saurreg]

At this point of time, I find Oddwen... quite innocent.

I shall wait and see the other votes.

[Lalaith]

Quick, someone tell me! I've just arrived back, I want to read through all the posts but not sure if I have time before voting closes. Have I got 5 minutes, or 1 hour and 5 minutes?

[Celuien]

What I meant was that I found your "stab-in-the-dark" against me yesterday rather suspicious - if you were an unwiser wolf you doubtless would have gone for Ang or Esgall who were no-shows yesterday, but you went for a side-show instead. Your insistence upon me today seems to point towards wanting folks to think that you don't change horses in the middle of the stream.

Also - if I make it through to tomorrow, things are looking so that I won't be here.

Well, if I'm wrong, I truely apologize. :( But really, my vote is not a matter of keeping the village from thinking I'm changing horses. I very nearly decided to go for Saurreg today, but I wanted to see how the theories played out and this seemed like the best way to test it.

To clarify, by not voting for Eomer or Phantom, I needed to pick someone who looked able to snatch away a majority and I thought that a possible no-show who had a vote already and *could* possibly get a majorty would be a better way to try and stop a phantom, Eomer, Oddwen triple-lynching than going for someone unlikely to get any votes. Not a wasted vote by going for someone I thought would die anyway, but a way to put a majority to someone who would die anyway to keep us from losing two villagers instead of one.

I realize I look pretty suspicious now, but I genuinely voted in the way I hoped would help the village most, even if my reasoning turns out to be horribly wrong.

[Saurreg]

Forum time is now 2:57 pm. Go figure...

tt's d same time that got me into trouble.

[Celuien]

It's 11:00 EDT, there should be one hour left.

[Lalaith]

Oh mussy me, I'll just have to hope I have an hour...is our esteemed moderator about to assure me?
Anyway for what it's worth I don't particularly suspect Oddwen and I think the phantom is more likely to be a wolf than Eomer. I am also suspicious of Saurreg but a vote for him will be pointless at this stage.

[Saurreg]

I am also suspicious of Saurreg but a vote for him will be pointless at this stage.

You know, you can always pray that the last few late-comers would suddenly decide that I make a good werewolf. :rolleyes:

[Saurreg]

I still don't get it...

http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/

As of time of typing, GMT time is now 1511 hrs (?) and my local time as reflected by the site as 2313 hrs (correct).

Shouldn't we have at least 1hr 45 mins left?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It's true that there are a few more votes left.

Enough to get Saurreg lynched, which is desirable as far as I'm concerned.


EDIT TO ADD: GMT actually means GMT+1 in summertime, I think. :rolleyes:

45 mins left.

[Saurreg]

Ah Eomer! Come to play? Always the optimist I see...

EDIT: Perhaps you should open that webpage I linked. Doesn't hurt to be a bit more knowledgeable.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

It's British summer time. Here in Blighty its 16:20 ish. Add one hour to GMT and you get the British time. I believe that leaves us... oh, rounded up to about 40 minuets to lynch us a wear wolf.

[Saurreg]

I thank you for your information Hookbill. At least someone here knows what he's talking about.

[Lalaith]

One thing I am pretty sure of. Whoever the Seer is, will last night have asked to dream of either phantom or Eomer. So someone on here knows the truth about at least one of these two chief suspects. But who? Oh, the frustration....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I wouldn't be surprised if the seer dreamed about me. I think there's a good chance the seer dreamed about Fea.

Now, Hookbill, perhaps you could clarify for us what you meant in post #124 (I think that's the right number).

You mention my thoughts on 'the possible accidental lynching of the seer'. When did I talk about this? You also seem to finish the post by directing suspicion upon me (suspicion which, as far as I can see, makes zero sense). And then you voted for me.

Just curious, is all...

[Saurreg]

One thing I am pretty sure of. Whoever the Seer is, will last night have asked to dream of either phantom or Eomer. So someone on here knows the truth about at least one of these two chief suspects. But who? Oh, the frustration....

You posted on the assumption that the seer would have asked about P or E? What if the Seer asked on Oddwen? Myself or even you?

What happens if the Seer asked if it was LMP? (dammit, where's d ph43r smiley when you need it)

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Good Lord, I can't remember. Just ignore that post; I think I must have been going slightly mad.

[Saurreg]

Aren't we all.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

When I'm gone, be sure to string up Hookbill the Goomba. :p

Who knows what bizarre influence he has had in killing me.

[Anguirel]

I hope we will save you yet, my good rapscallion...or at least take that sophist of a healer with you. Alas, though, it is in the hands of the quorum of citizens, who will not accept the advice of a higher authority, it would seem...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm suspicious of almost everyone which is rather frustrating. Eleven people have voted for six different villagers now. I'm beginning to think that the wolves aren't that "stupid" (well, no offense) anyway after causing this kind of shattered voting results.

There's a funny "I'm a martyr" flavour in Nilp's sayings not to mention that "I am a werewolf but don't take me seriously" statement. It may have been a joke as he says but to me it looked like a sure way to try to appear innocent.

Why does Eomer keep repeating that phantom won't last long? I'm not sure where he's trying to get but I find it odd. He has had some reasonable points, though.

I don't want a tie between any villagers. Since I don't have any certain information about who's guilty and who's not my vote is based on two things: Who's posts and actions I find most odd and how can I assure you that I'm not a werewolf (and don't you dare lynch me just for saying this for I think no-one wants to look quilty if they're pure as the wind driven snow :p)

Now, should I vote for Saurreg or Eomer. I'm willing to give Nilp another day because he might very well be just toying with the "kill me" stuff. Saurreg doesn't have any votes yet but obviously there are some others besides me who think he's suspicious. Eomer for one has three votes already. Maybe I should just start using the good old voting method: s/he just confused me, let's kill him/her! (Only kidding)

After reading all your arguments over and over again I'm beginning to lean towards voting for Eomer. That said... ++ EOMER

[Saurreg]

The influence of good judgement?

[littlemanpoet]

Time is slipping away. I have a chance to vote, and will do so although I have not been able to do more than scan the vote count so far. I will not vote for the phantom, as I think he's innocent, and we sure don't need a three-way lynching! Nor am I of a mind to allow a two-way lynching either. Therefore, since Oddwen is not on my suspect list but Eomer is, I cannot but do what my duty requires: ++ Eomer There. My vote is cast. I do hope we will have drowned a werewolf this time.

EDIT: Well shoot. dancing spawn beat me to it. Well, it wouldn't have changed a thing.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If my points are good then it is obvious that the phantom is a werewolf, will be killed by werewolves very soon, or will be lynched by suspicious villagers very soon.

*sighs*

I wish I could be more eloquent. But this looks like the end...

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Sorry Eomer, but that’s the way it goes. I'm still new to the game, so my judgement isn't really all that respectable. Rest in peace good Rohanian... of that’s the word...

[Anguirel]

Alas, it is so, I fear. Perfidious and insidious vermin of wolves. Ah, well, my dear buccaneer, come round to my camp beneath the elm trees and I'll help draft your will.

[Esgallhugwen]

I seriously can't believe that the phantom or Eomer are werewolves, and not even Saurreg seems to be that suspicious anymore. And Oddwen is only the village idiot.

C'mon folks I think we're going down the wrong path, and I wish I knew the right way but I don't. I'm gropping in the dark like the rest of you so I have no better choice but to pick ++ Oddwen

Sorry poor village fool if ye be not a wolf, I feel that Eomer and the phantom however loud mouthed they are hold more innocence. And picking someone who has said nothing will not help matters at all.

I fear we are doomed.

[Lalaith]

I may be completely wrong (as I was before, alas) but I do think Eomer is innocent, and perhaps also gifted. I don't suspect Oddwen, but I do think phantom is suspicious. There are two more people left to vote of which I am one. (Haven't got time to work out who the other one is!)
I would vote for phantom but that would make no difference so I will vote for ++Oddwen. However it looks like I am wasting my time, and probably my life, because if Eomer does turn out to be a werewolf I will look so extremely suspicious, what with my role in killing the Ranger, that I will be done in tomorrow anyway. Oh well.

[Lalaith]

My good candle-seller, so it was you that was wanting. Eomer is reprieved. I hope he deserves it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, this is my last goodbye. Many thanks to those who have shown faith in me. To the others, I don't really hold anything against you. But this is my advice to you when you see my corpse languishing in the icy depths.

Read my posts carefully. If you think about it, you will see that the phantom is an absolutely sensible candidate for lynching. You will not lose anything important and there is a good chance that he is a wolf.

Saurreg is just obviously a werewolf. He is callous and sneaky and his defences are shoddy.

Oh, and quiz Fea on her weird flip-flopping. I don't even pretend to understand her decisions. She might be a good choice for lynching, just to get her out of the way of rational judgment. :p

I am less suspicious of littlemanpoet, for what that's worth.

And Nilpaurion....*sniff*.....good luck with your quest, my friend!

Farewell.

[Saurreg]

Two for the price of one. Super...

[Anguirel]

I fear we are doomed.

I would like to give some heartening and inspirational speeches to rally your spirits. Instead, alas, economic pressures of demand must induce me to raise the cost of will-drafting from a dozen of eggs to a couple of braces of pheasant.

[the guy who be short]

Well, all votes are in so no more posts soon. Expect some death soon. :)

I'm incredibly sorry about messing up the times and causing so much confusion. I take all the blame, and it's most embarassing. :o In future, I will be sure to say BST rather than GMT.
If people are still confused, you can look at the time of my post. The next phase ends about 24 hours later.
If people are still confused after that, PM me with your location on the world map and I can post times in your local time too.

Sorry again.

[Lalaith]

I hope I'm not breaking rules by posting but I wanted to say that in my last minute panic I added up wrong, I thought Eomer had been saved but he hasn't. And I realise that I also need not have voted for poor Oddwen. Sorry again. Oh dear.

[the guy who be short]

The villagers had finally found some solidarity in their voting on the second Day of this terror – well, sort of. Two separate mobs developed, one surrounding Oddwen and the other Eomer of the Rohirrim in the village square.

“Who shall we get first? The idiot or the mariner?” somebody asked.

“I will die first,” Eomer and Oddwen replied simultaneously. They looked at one another sheepishly, for neither suspected the other. There was a short silence, and then, “the Lady may go first, if she so wills.”

Oddwen proffered herself to be slain, but the villagers weren’t quite sure what to do. They didn’t want to make another mistake… was the evidence sufficient? But the deed had to be done. A villager walked up to her, knife drawn, asking what she would like.

“I shall be serious for a moment. I want you to build a gallows, so that no more should suffer as I must now suffer. Consider this my dying wish.”

And saying so, she took the knife from his hand and slew herself. Her body collapsed to the ground with a dull thud. The villagers surrounded her, waiting for a transformation, breath drawn.

They breathed out, not through relief but through want of fresh air. The tenseness of the moment passed, and still nothing happened. It was evident that another innocent was dead.

The mob turned angrily on Eomer of the Rohirrim, snarling and little better than wolves themselves. Senselessly, they blamed him for Oddwen’s death.

“Ulmo shall be his judge!” they declared. “Take him to the river!”

Eomer informed them that he was quite capable of walking, and would take himself to the river if they would follow him. They perambulated to the nearby stream whence they drew their water; it was a tributary of the river Malduin that flowed into Teiglin that flowed into Sirion the Great and thence to the Sea. “So shall I come to Ulmo…” said the rapscallion, gazing sadly down the river, and in his death he looked both noble and fair.

“Bind his arms and his legs and throw him into the river! If he is guilty, then Ulmo shall reject him, and he shall float upon the water. Then we shall draw him out and kill him! If he is innocent, Ulmo shall demand of him a hug, and he shall be drawn to the river’s bed. There shall he drown and die a noble death.”

Eomer looked unconvinced. “Am I the only person who sees a flaw with that plan?” he asked. But they ignored him, and bound him, and cast him into the water. He splashed and fell deep into the running stream, and bounced on its bed. Forced to inhale the water, he asphyxiated.

“Ulmo wanted a hug from him… he is innocent!” the villagers said.

The body floated up again, driven by the force of the water.

“He is guilty!”

The body hugged the stream-bed once more. But his body had still not transformed, and it was now clear that he was innocent of all guilt, other than perhaps being a bit of a rogue.

“Alas!” Wailed the women, for Eomer was much loved before the coming of the werewolves. “Who could do such a horrible thing to such a handsome man?” His body drifted away to be received by the sea, bobbing up and down at intervals.

The villagers held a small meeting, decided that the current method of allowing guilt to be judged by the streams didn’t really work. By a vote of thirteen to none, it was removed from the village law-books, though unfortunately some foolish people took it up again several millennia later.

Living:

Anguirel
Celuien
dancing spawn of ungoliant
Esgallhugwen
Evisse the Blue
Feanor of the Peredhil
Firefoot
Hookbill the Goomba
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Nilpaurion Felagund
Saurreg
the phantom

Dead:

the guy who be short (Villager) - partially consumer by werewolves on NIGHT 1.
Kath (Ranger) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1.
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Villager) - turned into a pincushion on NIGHT 2.
Oddwen (Villager) - lynched with kitchen utensils on DAY 2.
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - lynched and drowned on DAY 2.

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 10

It is now NIGHT 3. NIGHT will end tomorrow at 5:30pm BST, 1:30pm EST, 12:30pm CST, that is 24 hours from now (check time of post). NIGHT may end earlier if all NIGHT-time PMs are received before then.

Edit: Lalaith, I'm not going to eat you or anything, but in future could you please limit such posts to the next day? Giving that explanation wasn't really that necessary. Thanks. :)

[the guy who be short]

The villagers woke bright and early, eager to witness more morbid and gruesome killings. A quick scan seemed to show that the ego of the village square was half of what it should have been – the phantom was missing!

The villagers rushed to his home. The healer was dead, they knew, but they were curious anyway. They gathered in a small room where the phantom liked to make his potions, to find him stretched on the floor under his bench. A shattered vial was by his side, and his face showed peace rather than fear. It was clear that, hearing the wolves coming upon him, he had chosen to poison himself rather than die at their paws. Indeed, his body was unmolested by the werewolves, and this seemed to be the case.

The villagers looked crestfallen at the lack of blood and gore.

They looked around the phantom's home, to see if any secrets were hidden away. Forcing a dark cupboard, they found a well made set of drawers. They opened one of these, and stood gobsmacked. It contained file after file after file. What could be in them?

The villagers rifled through the papers, amazed to find documents concerning absolutely everything about them – their likes, their dislikes, all their little moves. It was clear the the phantom was a Shirriff, one of the Secret Police of King Orodreth who spied on his citizens to keep them orderly. (This is a little known story, actually. Orodreth was actually a fearsome dictator, who kept careful tabs on the doings of all his followers. His mass censorship managed to keep this out of the history books).

In the confusion, the villagers did not notice one of their members slip a small envelope from under a corner of carpet into their pocket.

Usually the people would have been thrilled to rid themselves of one of the Secret Police – but in these perilous times, it was most damaging…

Living:

Anguirel
Celuien
dancing spawn of ungoliant
Esgallhugwen
Evisse the Blue
Feanor of the Peredhil
Firefoot
Hookbill the Goomba
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Nilpaurion Felagund
Saurreg

Dead:

the guy who be short (Villager) - partially consumer by werewolves on NIGHT 1.
Kath (Ranger) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1.
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Villager) - turned into a pincushion on NIGHT 2.
Oddwen (Villager) - lynched with kitchen utensils on DAY 2.
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - lynched and drowned on DAY 2.
the phantom (Shirriff) - poisoned himself on NIGHT 3.

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 9

It is now DAY. DAY will tomorrow in 24 hours at 6pm BST, 1pm EDT, 12:00 noon CDT, or earlier if a majority is reached before then.

Edit: The following villagers have given notice of their potential absence on this thread and will be exempt from the auto-kill rule: Celuien, Feanor of the Peredhil.

[Anguirel]

Ironic indeed. the phantom was correct about his innocence, but the late heroic seaman Eomer was even more wise about his survivability.

It seems to me that we must examine the village records, and see who fanned the flames to destroy Eomer-in particular those who committed themselves late, but decisively.

The healer-shirriff's demise has assured one thing for me-as I said earlier, the furrier Saurreg is unlikely to be a werewolf and to be acting alone. Indeed, his defence of the phantom, effective and well-timed, makes me suspect he is the other shirriff (as the phantom claimed that Eomer had guessed). I feel free to suggest this as, alone, a shirriff is of limited use to the village, and I do not feel this possible exposure will increase the chances of his murder by wolves. Despite Eomer's parting words to us, I believe we can absolve Saurreg of guilt, whether to conspiracy or murder.

As for my own exhortation that the phantom be hanged, I am unapologetic. His divisive tactics and feudings, in any case, did not befit his lawful rank and harmed the village more than they benefitted. But I will add that he was undoubtedly a brave, if misguided, man, utterly true to his own convictions; the convictions that the wolves among us exploited. Eru keep his soul.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Why in the world did he have to be so arrogant, self-assured, and most of all, willing to kill people "for the good of the village"? I was convinced that the fool was a wolf. Now I have to go and ruin all my partying this afternoon by coming up with new suspects since you all went and lynched my old one, and then the one I most wanted to lynch went and got suicidal on me. Do you know what a damper this puts on my afternoon? :rolleyes:

I recommend taking a closer look at Firefoot, unless in my skimmings I missed something important (such as her not actually being alive any more). Either she's bad enough at this that she's been wrong about all of her suspects, or she's trying to frame them up because people think she's trustworthy. Either way, it's not reassuring.

[Lalaith]

So we are nine. :(

And the souls of two of those already dead lie heavy on my conscience, our poor Guardian and innocent Oddwen, slaughtered by my numerical idiocy. And poor phantom, I was so wrong about him, as he was so wrong about Eomer.

I have thought however of one slight silver lining. At least, if we wake up with no-one dead, we will know for sure that the wolves' ranks have been swelled by the cursed villager - there will be no optimistic pondering about Guardian success. Of course, among our many lynching blunders, the cursed villager may already lie dead.
Among our nine innocents, we still have our Seer and the Guardian, and one lonely Shirriff.
It is ironic to think that of those five who were nominated on our first day, three are now dead and all were innocent. Esgalhugwen and Saurreg are remaining nominees surviving from that first day. No-one stepped forward to save them, either, so can we deduce from that, that both are innocent? (Phantom could not save Saurreg, if Saurreg was in truth the other shirriff, as he had already voted).
Or was perhaps one a werewolf, and his two partners in evil ready to let him die for the sake of taking four innocents with him in a mass lynching?
Will the other shirriff now step forward and declare himself, I wonder?

[the guy who be short]

Guardian = Ranger = Kath = Dead.

The Hunter is still alive.

[Anguirel]

I also wonder if the Shirriff will come into the open. More interestingly, will wolves, or simple rogues and tricksters who love to sow confusion, claim shirriffdom; a risky tactic, but potentially a rewarding one? We must be on our guard. In the end, I believe the direct unmasking of the shirriff will only help the wolves; however, we may indirectly unmask the shirriff by defending villagers on the grounds that we believe they are the shirriff, as I did with Saurreg. This shows the clarity of our thought processes and helps back up our rhetoric and theories with appropriate rationale.

[Lalaith]

Sorry, I just keep getting those two mixed up. I think I must be in denial about the whole Kath thing, I felt so bad about it. :(

[Lalaith]

Anguirel, I know what you are saying, but if a wolf was to pit himself against the true shirriff, it would have to be a wolf with a convincing case, one who has made posts supporting the phantom?
But of those gifted who are still left, will the wolves at this stage be so keen to kill any of them?
The Seer, once dead and thus with his/her identity revealed, leaves a meaningful trail of posts behind him/her, which could help the survivors.
The Hunter might on his death kill one of the werewolves.
The remaining Shirriff is no more use than an ordinary villager.
No, I think that the werewolves will be looking to kill the Cursed villager. If of course we have not already killed him.
I tried to save Eomer because I thought he might be the Seer, as he seemed to know my innocence. But that was when I thought the phantom guilty. I thought Eomer had also dreamt about the phantom, you see.
The Seer has now had three dreams. Can we find his or her hints?

[Anguirel]

For their sake, I hope not. We want this putative trail to be rather longer...

Now, to the main matter at hand. Who helped put the nail in Eomer and Oddwen's coffins, especially when there was little left to lose, but also in cases of particularly skilled prosecution? Supporters of lynching the phantom-among whom I am numbered-should be impartially examined as well. But most of all-beware the bandwagon.

Oddwen's innocence was clear to me the moment she wasted her vote on a tit for tat against Celuien-a candidate unlikely to attract support, who all evidence of her argument suggests she is genuinely trying to work things out for the village. That was not the action of a wolf.

On the other hand, Evisse's much earlier denunciation of the luckless Lalaith strikes me as rather more sinister; this could have developed into a strong case due to Lalaith's earlier apparent misfortune with our Ranger. Note also Evisse's insistence on her vote's tactical nature-an attempt to duck blame if Lalaith is found to be innocent. It seems slightly lupine, though this only occurred to me ten minutes ago, and is far from a developed or reinforced case...

[Firefoot]

I recommend taking a closer look at Firefoot, unless in my skimmings I missed something important (such as her not actually being alive any more). Either she's bad enough at this that she's been wrong about all of her suspects, or she's trying to frame them up because people think she's trustworthy. Either way, it's not reassuring. But I was right about both Eomer and phantom, wasn't I?

I am not having a very good time choosing my suspects right now (obviously). Towards the end of voting I was feeling irritated with Saurreg for his comments such as "at least someone here knows what he's talking about." (Note: I said irritation, not suspicion. I'm not ready to blame anybody yet today.)

For what it's worth, yesterday's voting was:

Eomer - 5 (*Saurreg*, Hookbill, phantom, dancing spawn, lmp)
Oddwen - 5 (Nilp, *Celuien*, Firefoot, Esga, Lalaith)
Phantom - 2 (Anguirel, Eomer)
LMP - 1 (Fea)
Lalaith - 1 (Evisse)
Celuien - 1 (Oddwen)

Day 1's voting with newly proven innocents filled in. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=395113&postcount=111)

Anyway, I'm going to review the thread more closely before making more accusations. Hopefully we can bag a werewolf today.

[Lalaith]

Anguierel, looking for chief prosecutors is not always the right solution, it was after all phantom who drove the Eomer bandwaggon. He just had the wrong end of the stick.
I'll tell you what puzzle is keeping me awake at night - the first day's voting.
Did the wolves vote or abstain? Did sit back to enjoy a wholescale massacre, or did they engineer it?

[Evisse the Blue]

Hmmm. I think the phantom was kinda right. The werewolves might have tried to frame him and lynch him on Day 2, then when they couldn't do it, they killed him at Night. Why else wouldn't they kill him on Night 2 then, only to finally do him in the following Night? So maybe we should start looking at the way everyone voted. My theory is that last Day's events were an attempted lynching against phantom that got out of hand, because people somehow were more persuaded to vote against Eomer and Oddwen. I do suspect however that the last votes for Oddwen at the very end of the Day were placed in order to create the tie.

Either way, it's not reassuring.
Even less reassuring is you coming up with different suspects every day. That and the fact that on day 1 you told Eomer and phantom 'I hope you both die' and then, lo and behold...You're gonna tell me you didn't vote for Eomer on day 2, yes I know....Also, it doesn't look like you'll be voting for LMP on this one...

As for why I voted for Lalaith yesterday...
Basically I wanted to scatter the votes. And I wasn't convinced of either one's guilt (the phantom's or Eomer), so I didn't want to vote just to go along with the crowd. Most mistakes are made like that, as we all must realize by now.
At the moment I cast my vote, I could see two sides forming: pro phantom and pro Eomer. One of these sides was guilty, one was innocent. Or ironically they were both innocent, as I see it now, and the wolves were somewhere in the middle, laughing. As I couldn't tell which was which, I decided to select from my suspect list another name, in order to scatter the votes. This way, there was a bigger chance there was a werewolf on the lynch list.

Ironically, Oddwen was also on my suspect list, but as I went back to read through what she said, I realized I had ridiculously little against her.

I wanted to vote for someone who was on my suspect list and whose position I was not at all sure of. And if you want to know the reasons Lalaith was even on my suspect list, here they are: she seems a very logical and analytical person who nonetheless did cast a hasty vote for Kath on day 1 (ok, I know it was day 1 and all of us were dancing in the dark, but there were more suspicious characters than Kath around) , then even on day 2 she managed to work her way around arguments in such a way that I couldn't tell who she was suspecting, (which made her one of those 'grey' characters I mentioned as suspicious on Day 1. She said she would have voted for phantom but didn't, instead cast her vote for Oddwen to save Eomer whom she claimed she thought was gifted. But whatever reasons we all had to think Eomer was gifted, must have been disspelled by then, as no gifted one would go so aggresively after someone like he went after the phantom and Saurreg. Also, I wanted to see if she usually ignores her name coming up under suspicion, or she just made an exception when Eomer half jokingly accused her on Day 1. On Day 2 Lalaith somehow manages to create a tie between two innocents. Of course, she could argue that simply cross posting with Esga could mean she missed her post above, which is quite believable.
But why wait until the very end to cast your vote? And not to forget, I quite suspect Esga as well.

Also, there's something else I find unsettling about Lalaith: she keeps bringing into discussion the gifted villagers, in such a way, as if she expected us to point towards this person or that as being gifted, or to share our opinions of who is gifted and how. Not that innocent villagers are not allowed to wonder who the gifted villagers are, but are you willing to risk such information to be out in the open in order for you to have more certainty?

[Anguirel]

Evisse, a well written defence of your action; I am now slightly less worried about you. Most well-conducted. Have you considered entering the legal profession? Brehon courses provided for nineteen groats.

However, though I agree with you that it's unwise to speculate on the identities of those to whom we owe our survival (as it does the wolves' work for them,) I think at present that Lalaith is trying to sort things out, in her own mind as well as ours. She's groping after clarity. I have nothing solid to back this up, only instinct.

Firefoot, thank you for your evidence. It seems to me that your own guess for Saurreg was a solely "gut-feeling" matter. As for Esga, she was denounced without a shred of evidence, by someone we know for sure was not the Seer. The first shortlist is thus hardly valid as a suspect list. We need to look at Day 2's activities.

[Lalaith]

Having watched the tragic outcome of the phantom vs Eomer battle, I know what harm two busy innocents suspecting each other can do. So I will hold my fire regarding Evisse's accusations until I have slept and thought.
Until tomorrow, villagers, adieu.

[littlemanpoet]

As I showed in post #150, everybody but everybody seemed like they could be either lupine or innocent. That tells me that the wolves are doing a great job of covering their identities. Saurreg seemed guilty to me based on his day one voting record, but the phantom's good word in S's direction is indication of his likely innocence, not to mention S's likely status as a shirriff. What about day 2's votes?

As I made quite clear in my vote post, I was trying to avoid a tie, especially since I didn't think Oddwen was a werewolf. So of my list of three suspects, I voted for Eomer because (1) he was on my personal suspect list, and (2) there was building consensus against him. If the consensus had been building against Saurreg instead, I would have voted for him without apology, for the same reasons.

There are, however, two individuals who worked to get Oddwen up even with Eomer, and that concerns me. Are Eswen and Lalaith werewolves, in cahoots together? I have already said that I think Lalaith is no fool. On the other hand, if she is not a werewolf, she has made some pretty ghastly muffs. If E and L worked together to get the votes up even in order to lynch two for the price of one, they made an awfully bald move, which could be construed as a stupid move for a pair of werewolves. It just seems too obvious. Unless they brilliantly played a bold move, counting on us using double-think so that we'd say "nah, they can't be the werewolves, that's too obvious". So basically there's not enough evidence there.

So who does that leave as possible werewolves worth lynching (here we go again)?

Saurreg voted for Eomer who was innocent. Saurreg is probably the other shirrif, which means he's not likely a werewolf.

Celuien voted for Oddwen who was also innocent. She seems innocent to me, but then she could be playing a very clever "hide the identity" game.

Feanor voted for me. I'm innocent. That does make me wonder. She has flip flopped too. She is a loudmouth when she's not too busy, but that means very little. Most recently she has cast aspersions against Firefoot. Hmmm..... However, Evisse's recent comments on Feanor's Day 1 words show me that Fea is more emotive than wolfish; it just strikes me as too obvious a statement.

Firefoot voted for innocent Oddwen. Gut instinct, so far, is that Firefoot's not guilty.

Anguirel voted for the innocent phantom. Does not seem wolfish to me ... so far. Gut instinct, that.

dancing spawn voted for innocent Eomer. She is on my suspect list, but only on the strength of Feanor's suspicion (even though she voted for me).

Evisse voted for Lalaith. She thinks now that there was a possible conspiracy to lynch the phantom, which failed. That would mean that her suspects are Anguirel and ... um ... Eomer. But that doesn't work, since Eomer's innocent. And dead.

Hookbill voted for innocent Eomer. He, like Firefoot, have done us the service of keeping score (which I guess I sort of do too). Nothing especially "damning" about that.

littlemanpoet - I voted for innocent Eomer. As I said earlier, I was pretty convinced that the phantom was innocent; which has been proved now, sadly. I had to vote either before 6 am EDT or after 11 am EDT, and chose to use my vote more wisely toward the end, since I really wasn't sure which of my three to vote for early, and didn't want to waste my vote.

Nilpaurion voted for innocent Oddwen. He's playing a game of "sheep in wolf's clothing", which may or may not be dangerous.

So far all of us have been proven wrong except for Feanor and Evisse. Congratulations to the both of you that the person you voted for has not died and been shown to be innocent ... yet. ;)

So basically what I come up with is that Day 2's votes tell us next to nothing about who the werewolves might be. So now what?

Well, there is one interesting factor. Anguirel noted that Eomer was right about the phantom. What else did Eomer say in his swan song post #209)? That Saurreg is just obviously a werewolf. Well, we doubt that now. That Fea is flip flopping and a good choice for lynching. Well, I am sympathetic with that view, as she voted for me, but that is not a good enough reason. I appreciate his good word for me. And what the heck was he saying to Nilpaurion? I didn't get that.

So who am I left with as possible werewolves? Well, I'm not sure of anybody. You guys are all playing a superb game. But somewhere amongst us are three werewolves - or four! :eek: Let's all keep our eyes open, my friends.

And I shall try to revive my penchant for doggerel soon. :)

[Firefoot]

Well, I've gone through the thread a bit more as promised. Here's what I've been thinking.

I am doubtful that Celuien is a werewolf. She has been analytical and straight to the point; her points are logical and make sense. Nor do I feel very suspicious of Hookbill or Evisse. I don't see anything very werewolfish about them.

I have mixed feelings about Lalaith. She has been conservative, though has offered her opinions in a fairly straight-forward manner. She has given the appearance of being open-minded. Both good strategies for both innocents and wolves. She followed the Eomer case very closely, generally leaning towards his innocence; she put several cases forth "if he was a werewolf, this... but if he wasn't, that..." She has commented about werewolf strategy, which would seem to indicate innocence, however, it has not been enough that it would give away werewolf strategy if she were to be a werewolf. On a scale of 1-5, I would put her at about a 3.

If Lalaith is a werewolf, I would then look towards Anguirel. I am mildly suspicious of Anguirel anyway; he seems to put himself above suspicion (and this may be because he is innocent, of course). He has been fair and not very vindicitive (again: a good strategy for both wolves and villagers. It doesn't necessarily mean anything); I almost wish he would be a little more concrete. He has at least three times now mentioned Lalaith's innocence (post #'s 165, 223, 227), generally in passing as if not to bring too much attention to her but enough to gently nudge others that way. I don't see any other evidence of this; if these two are our wolves, I think that the third has not attracted much negative attention yet.

I'm still not comfortable with Saurreg, for reasons already stated; primarily now his apparent knee-jerk reaction to my previous accusations. Also, as I said before, my irritation with his rude comments, more likely to produce division than the unity we innocents need. However, I see no real concisive evidence for him to be a werewolf. I shall remain watchful here.

Nor am I comfortable with Fea. Numerous times, she has tried to nudge the accusations in my direction. If she were a wolf, I would justify the deaths of Azaelia and Eomer as a possible attempt to set me up: Azaelia, who I had already expressed suspicion on (plus Kath), then phantom, who I thought to be innocent, and would "make sense" for me to kill according to my theory that a wolf would not kill anyone that they had cast suspicion on publicly. The other odd thing that I find about Fea is her insistence about lmp. Except for her erroneous accusations of me I would say she was the seer. However, she seems too noisy and, well, vehement to be a wolf. She brings a lot of attention to herself, so unless this was to hide the other two 'quiet' wolves, this would argue against the Fea=werewolf case. So, I don't have a lot of backup here, but I will again be watchful.

Nilpaurion is just a mystery. I am inclined to think him innocent, though.

I am leaning towards the innocence of Esga, dancing spawn, and lmp. In particular, lmp's analysis post seemed fairly correct based on what evidence we had at that point.

So there you go. None of this is concrete, rather, it is likely to change. But based on what people have said so far this is where I'm at. Besides, someone needed to comment at length today. Maybe this will stem some discussion.

Edit: cross-posting with lmp.

Edit 2: After reading lmp's post, I am further convinced that lmp is probably innocent.

[Celuien]

Alas for the phantom. We've lost another gifted villager, as I feared he was.

I feel sick about my vote for Oddwen yesterday, now that we now she was an innocent as well. I hope that she can forgive me for voting against her, wherever she is. I did what I felt I had to do to try and save the phantom and Eomer, of whose innocence I was certain. Or rather, I had as much certainty as possible for an ordinary weaver. Unfortunately, my plan backfired in the loss of two innocents, since my theory that implicated Oddwen (which I did fear was shaky) turned out to be wrong and we ended in a tie.

I'm not sure what to do today. My unease about Saurreg still exists, although most of my suspicions are founded on the grouping discussed yesterday in regard to Oddwen. The rest is based on the same reasons that other villagers have given. I'm also starting to wonder about Fea because of her targeting of lmp, who doesn't seem wolfish to me.

After yesterday, I'm having trouble finding any clarity. I think I'm going to wait and see what happens before I make any further judgments.

EDIT: It might prove useful to look at late votes that lead to the tie between Oddwen and the phantom yesterday. There might be a couple of wolves in there who took the opportunity to force a tie.

[littlemanpoet]

It might prove useful to look at late votes that lead to the tie between Oddwen and the phantom yesterday. There might be a couple of wolves in there who took the opportunity to force a tie. I discussed that in post # 229.

I see that there is continued unease about Saurreg. Didn't it seem clear that he and the phantom were sure of each other's innocence?

And Lalaith still garners suspicion? Though her voting pattern seems a bit too obvious and goofy, that could be by design, I suppose.

Mild suspicion of Anguirel? This is based so far on his failure to be concrete, as Firefoot admits.

And Feanor garners suspicion. I appreciate the confidence some of you have shown in me; it tends to make me think you are also innocent, Firefoot and Celuien, which was the direction I was leaning already. I did say Fea seems more emotive than wolfish, but then maybe emotive is just how Fea is, and she could still be a wolf. Her voting record should probably therefore be more sound as evidence in her regard, rather than the verve with which she posts. So far she has voted for Eomer, who was innocent, and for me. I can of course tell you I'm innocent also, until I'm blue in the face, but of course in the end you have to be the judge of that. Again, I thank you for your confidence.

[Celuien]

I discussed that in post # 229.

I see that there is continued unease about Saurreg. Didn't it seem clear that he and the phantom were sure of each other's innocence?

Ah, I missed that. It must be road fatigue - I've had a long trip between villages today. :)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Well... I've made it back from all my "painting and drawing", and yet I can still only fit in one good post before I disappear again.

Thanks for referring to me as emotive, LMP, because I'm a passionate loudmouth. It's true. We all know it, so there's no point in denial. :p I'm not a wolf though. Why would a wolf try her absolute best to shoot down a plan to kill innocents and try and lynch the guys trying to kill the good guys?

About that "I hope you both die"... pretty ironic, ain't it? Sorry if that arouses any suspicion, but I feel pretty special that the wolves went through all the effort of making me look guilty as all heck by killing the guys on my hitlist. Sure I feel bad that they were innocent, but I don't feel bad that they died. After all, the phantom tried to kill the good guys, and Eomer told him that he was right in that I was "insane". Now that may or may not be true, but it doesn't apply to the game. ;)

About my "targeting" LMP... I explained that really well, or so I thought. I had to vote in a rush. I only had four suspects. I didn't want to vote for the phantom out of annoyance, plus I suspected he was the Seer. I didn't want to risk it. Eomer, I no longer suspected. Remember my "It's always good to have publics "suspects" whether you suspect them or not?" Yeah... he was just the guy I pointed my finger at on Day One for lack of anything better to do. Spawn, I no longer cared about. I wasn't suspicious. By default, I had to vote for LMP. No hard feelings, ol' boy, but you were the only possibility for me at the time.

Now, however... I'm still going to say "LITTLEMANPOET IS A WOLF." He's just too polite of a loudmouth to be sincere. But then again... I'm also suspicious of Lalaith, just for good measure, and I think that The Barrow-Wight and The Saucepan Man and Esty are wolves.

No... in all seriousness... what the heck is with Nilpy? First he's saying "I'm innocent, lynch me." And then he says "I'm a wolf. Lynch me." Let's just lynch him and get the mystery out of it all. The only question is whether he's the Hunter and just wants a free shot at whoever he's got his beady little eyes on.

[Saurreg]

Fish, The Phantom is now dead and i have yet to return him his gold star.

I posted yesterday that I thought Oddwen was innocent and yet people still voted for her when the prime suspects were Eomer, The Phantom and I. Go figure...

Of Firefoot's list of four, three are dead and I was the favor of the day early on, with only Phantom by my side. I have not discounted my suspicions of her but that can wait (I hope. Yesterday's voting was interesting. It was a battle to the last between Eomer and the Phantom and then suddenly Oddwen's name popped out and won the tie.

Why Oddwen? As I recalled, she did not post much or anything during the second round to arouse suspicion except to express her indignance at the vote being levied at her.

Those who voted against Oddwen were (In chronological order):

Nilpaurion Felagund
Celuien
Firefoot
Esgallhugwen
Lalaith

More latter.

EDIT: I also believe as of this time that Feanor is not a werewolf. I believe she was the first to vote and she voted for LMP - a most improbable choice that as proven, was not followed upon by.

We have three wolves. They must have divided their votes between Eomer, the Phantom and Oddwen and just so that they don't appear to suspicious they could have changed their voting patterns such as having a different wolf vote for different candidates each round. But all three votes would have been cast for the one with the most votes and the runner-up.

Trends to look out for:

1. Any pattern of same names that have voted for the condemned and the next most suspicious together.

2. The same names appearing much latter during the vote.

[Saurreg]

EDIT: It might prove useful to look at late votes that lead to the tie between Oddwen and the phantom yesterday. There might be a couple of wolves in there who took the opportunity to force a tie.

There was no tie between The Phantom and Oddwen. It was the latter and Eomer. And why just The Phantom and Oddwen? Why not also look at the votes for Eomer also? Why have you discounted him? I would like to hear the reasons.

Those who voted for Eomer (In chronological order):

Saurreg
Hookbill the Goomba
The phantom
Dancing spawn of Ungoliant
littlemanpoet

And for those of you who still persist on calling me wolf. Have it your way. It's not as if I give a fish about it anymore because no matter how hard I try to exonerate myself, someone would still find the flimsiest of substance and use it to condemn me. So vote if you want. And if you think no one's gonna follow you, go ahead and bring your siblings, bring your mother and your father, bring your cousins, aunts and uncles. Bring your entire clan. See if I care.

[Saurreg]

Those who voted on Round 1:

Celuien for Oddwen
Firefoot for Saurreg
Lalaith for Kath
Feanor of the Peredhil for Eomer of the Rohirrim

I have already discounted Eomer and the Phantom because they are dead and innocent.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Slightly off-topic: I'm going to be away since I have work today but I'll be back a couple of hours before the deadline.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v604/hukbillgoomba/abc.bmp Oh dear

I'm a bit lost at the moment. All my w-w theories have just gone out of the proverbial window with the death of phantom. After Eomer turned out innocent, I was sure phantom would be a hairy one. But now... I'm going to have to think a little harder. :(

[Lalaith]

have already said that I think Lalaith is no fool. On the other hand, if she is not a werewolf, she has made some pretty ghastly muffs

Tell me about it. I can't tell you how stupid I feel. I got back an hour before voting, found everyone had been posting like crazy, and I wanted to read carefully before I voted. But not carefully enough, I honestly thought Eomer had four votes, not five, and in a gamble that the missing voter would show, and also wanted to save Eomer, I went for Oddwen. I had already deduced (post 130, sorry don't understand the dark arts of posting single post link) that Eomer was most likely innocent, and I thought he might be the Seer, and so needed to be saved.
Losgulhugwen also voted for Oddwen. (It was a double post - I didn't see her vote until I'd voted myself). Did she (I think it's a she!?) make the same mistake as me? It's quite possible...

As for my vote for Kath, I don't think I should be singled out for that. I don't think anyone made particularly good voting choices that day. Including those that didn't vote at all and left five villagers up for lynching. We know now that two of the other nominees were innocent and a third is quite likely to be innocent. And as for the fourth, phantom just voted for Losgulhugwen because he thought she would die anyway as an absentee.
(Btw Saurreg you forgot Feanor off your list of voters, she voted for Eomer, remember?)
I don't think you can blame me for Kath. But you can blame me all you like for the Oddwen stupidity, and honestly, if it weren't for the fact that it would be highly dangerous at this stage to lose another innocent, I'd offer myself up for lynching just so the village would lose a member who is clearly a liability. I really am sorry... but I am not a werewolf.

[Lalaith]

Oh and for what it's worth, I think phantom would have been safe from the wolves while Eomer still lived, and vice versa.

They were so busy throwing suspicion on each other, that they were both highly probable candidates for lynching, which is obviously of benefit to the wolves, who could sit back and watch the fun. Oh how they must have laughed. :(

[Saurreg]

(Btw Saurreg you forgot Feanor off your list of voters, she voted for Eomer, remember?)

Dutifully edited. Thanks for the heads up.

[littlemanpoet]

Now, however... I'm still going to say "LITTLEMANPOET IS A WOLF." He's just too polite of a loudmouth to be sincere. But then again... I'm also suspicious of Lalaith, just for good measure, and I think that The Barrow-Wight and The Saucepan Man and Esty are wolves.

Hardy har har. You are too funny. :p

Trends to look out for:

1. Any pattern of same names that have voted for the condemned and the next most suspicious together.

2. The same names appearing much latter during the vote.

This is an interesting theory. What you mean by #1 is unclear to me. If I understand it, it can only be applied to those who have actually voted on both days. I've thought of making a request that those who didn't vote, say how they would have voted, but I realize that the wolves would most certainly make the thing a fantasy at best. So we're stuck with the data available on this thread.

So the only people we can test your trend with, as I said, are those who have voted twice:

Celuien late for Oddwen then early for Oddwen
Firefoot somewhat late for Saurreg then early for Oddwen
Lalaith early for Kath then very late for Oddwen
Feanor of the Peredhil early for Eomer then early for LMP

I personally (on gut instinct mind you) doubt the guilt of any of these four. Based on your second criterion, none of them voted late twice. Based on your first criterion, Celuien was consistent; Firefoot voted according to suspicions as far as I can tell; Lalaith stabbed in the dark then tried to make sure there was no tie and failed;Feanor took two stabs in the dark.

Sorry, but because of the lack of voting the first day, there just isn't enough information. I would tell you how I would have voted on the first day, but you can bet the wolves would just use it against me.

[Anguirel]

There seems to be a small, but, to me, rather alarming, inclination within the village to string me up for my indecision...I cry you mercy. We all are innocent until proven guilty; concrete attacks lead to feuds like theEomer/phantom spat. hence I have avoided them.

My Lalaith asides have been, it is true, deliberately understated; this is to emphasise that my opinion is simply a supposition here. I think Lalaith innocent not because of any accurate analysis, but because instinct tells me she's blameless, and because I am somewhat convinced by her "oh, whoops, I've lynched another innocent, sorry, sorry, sorry," approach.

I will return when I have more confidence in my conclusions. At the moment the artist, the housemaid, and the butcher with poetic aspirations are bothering me a little. A union, sealed by a decoy vote, may exist between the artist and the butcher...though this is all in its haziest stage. And certainly not...concrete.

What is concrete anyway? We use good solid stone here within the bounds of Nargothrond...

[Evisse the Blue]

or, to keep it short and sweet, Trust no1. ;)

"Evisse voted for Lalaith. She thinks now that there was a possible conspiracy to lynch the phantom, which failed. That would mean that her suspects are Anguirel and ... um ... Eomer. But that doesn't work, since Eomer's innocent. And dead."
No. Let me explain what my theory was:

The phantom was not killed the previous night in order to lynch him the next day. The werewolves set a bait: as anticipated, Eomer took up on the obvious idea and started the anti-phantom bandwagon. Two things became apparent during Day 2 events: that the phantom was protecting Saurreg, and while for the innocents this could look suspicious, that could only mean one thing for the werewolves: that the two were the Shiriffs; second that the villagers were more convinced of the phantom's innocence than Eomer's. Now, I'm not discounting the possibility that wolves may have voted for Eomer too. But my theory at the moment is that they had been meaning to lynch the phantom, but then, when too many people turned to vote for Eomer, they realized this was a lost cause, so they stopped trying to vote for the phantom, as it would have achieved nothing. Saurreg said: "yesterday's voting was supposed to be between Eomer and phantom." Yes, this is certainly how it looked like up to a certain point. How then did Oddwen attract so many votes as to have a tie with the much more unpopular at the time Eomer? Of course you can say: people were uncertain of either one's guilt. Fair enough. But why did everyone who didn't vote for either Eomer or tp turned to Oddwen? Why not scatter the votes? The higher the probability you'd make a wolf sit up and pay attention, maybe even make a mistake. The trouble with boarding any bandwagon is that it makes the Day's voting and probable outcome very predictable for the wolves. So if they're clever they plan everything in advance and the rest of us are just gonna go with the flow.

Anyway. I heard Lalaith's defense, (numerical confusion) now I would like to hear Esga's.
She also voted for Oddwen at a time when she couldn't have known (if she's innocent) that a wolf wouldn't step in to create a tie. A vote for anyone else could have assured no possibility of creating a tie. She also made it clear that she didn't suspect Oddwen all that much. In fact, she's another one of those who you can't tell whom they are suspecting.

Anguirel, I'm ready to believe your 'protection' of Lalaith as based on a gut feeling, as I had a similar feeling when it came to Eomer's and phantom's innocence, but I can't overlook the fact that you were the first to vote for phantom yesterday being very sure of his guilt, and tried to get as many people to do the same.

Also, everyone, remember gut feelings can be wrong.

Make of this theory what you will.

As I said, I'll like to hear more from Esgalhugwen.

Dancing spawn looks suspicious to me at the moment because I can't place her anywhere. Unless she's just a very confused innocent, she could very well be a wolf who's lying low and not venturing any daring remarks.

Now, Nilpaurion Felagund. He makes this funny post here:

"Then there's this added advantage--we could put blame on the phantom, who could shift blame to Eomer. Because of this confusion, they'll both die. Muahahahaha!

Having said that, lynch me. Now.

Post-traumatic Possum. We intend to kill the gifted villagers through lynching, though. They taste bad. (Sorry to any gifted villagers there.)"

Heh. Interesting strategy I must say. Not far from what actually happened. Except that Oddwen died too, whom Nilp voted as if to avert blame in case both the phantom and Eomer got indeed lynched together.
Unless I hear more of Nilp's 'serious personality' I'm gonna assume he's a werewolf hiding in the open.

The only person I don't suspect at the moment is Saurreg, for reasons that I think are obvious to everyone.

Now I'm gonna go and prepare a salad with tomatoes, green pepper, bacon and salty cheese, which everyone will surely enjoy.

[Saurreg]

...

WALL OF WORDS!!!!

http://img105.echo.cx/img105/2415/monkeyshocked20nn.jpg

[Saurreg]

What you mean by #1 is unclear to me.

Let me clarify;

1. A is the condemned one and B is the next in line with the most votes. B can also be another condemned one as in the case of Eomer & Oddwen.

2. If there are three wolves, they would be voting either all for one, or two for A and the last for B and vice versa.

3. Either way we play with it, all three wolves would have voted.*

*I base this on the very likely assumption that our wolves don't play dice (chance) and would always be around to try and shape things into the way they want it to go.

Of course I will not discount the fact that only two wolves would put in decisive votes and the third would either be absent or even vote at random just so that it would not be so apparant that three people are working together.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I will no longer need to state my audacious claims, as I am already in suspicion, which is enough for a suspicious person. :)

First of all, forgive me, Oddie-woddie poo, for I have cast the first stone at innocent you.

Second, cousin Eomer ( ;) ), I shall avenge your death, or else my sister will kill me. But wait, she can't do that--see my sig.

Third, yesterday, I have made a list of the remaining members, and tried to determine guilt or innocence depending on what has been said or unsaid in this thread. This is what I came up with:

Anguirel - possible innocent. He, after all, sympathised with Eomer. Or could it be that since there was no werewolf on the chopping block, he could sympathise with an innocent who would likely die, so he could hide his true identity?

Celu - possibly a werewolf. Why the strange dealings with Saurreg?

Esgal - possibly innocent. But why vote for Oddie?

Evisse - mysterious. I have no idea where to place her.

Fea - almost certainly a werewolf. Zali's death might just be a smokescreen to reduce suspicion of her. Plus her silence during the last vote unnerves me.

Firefoot - possibly a werewolf. Although she might also be a seer. But this:

And something else. Firefoot was concerned about Nilp's vastly different timezone, and Nilp was grateful. Was Ff perhaps concerned because Nilp has had trouble participating in Werewolfery Counsel? Though that could mean that they are the Sherriffs. (Oddie)

might bind our fate. So if the wolves devour me, please look real hard at her direction.

Hookbill - almost certainly a werewolf. He's just too good, although I can't find anything solid to back up my gut feeling.

Lalaith - possibly innocent. But why the vote for Oddie?

lmp - possibly a werewolf. Why did Fea vote for her, when it was quite clear that the Eomer, Saurreg, and tp were in the shooting gallery?

Nilp - an innocent werewolf? You decide. Although quite frankly, it's better to be lynched than to be eaten. Although it might be good to win. ;)

Saurreg - you say he's innocent, although I'm not quite sold. tp's death might just be a ruse, after all.

spawn - possibly innocent. But why vote for Oddie?

There. But since I can go online tomorrow before the deadline, I might postpone my vote to see the developing trends. Although if none develops I am inclined to vote for Fea. But haste makes waste, and innocent blood is too precious to waste.

He's a wolf! Lynch him! Lynch him!

Hush! tgwbs, can you keep my alter-egos out?

[Hookbill the Goomba]

So that's what a werewolf looks like! :p

Dancing spawn, to me, seems to be acting a little more suspicious than Saurreg. Although, I had the same feelings about Eomer and phantom, and they both turned out innocent! Oh woe is me! I can tell I'm not going to be very good at this game.

Oh and for what it's worth, I think phantom would have been safe from the wolves while Eomer still lived, and vice versa.

It would seem that that was true. I was convinced that either one of them was a w-w, but when they both turned out innocent I must admit I felt partly responsible for fuelling to fire. I.e. If I'd voted Phantom, then Oddwen would have died alone. However, perhaps if they had stayed in the game, we would have been distracted from finding the w-ws by their "He's a w-w!" "No he is" bickering.

Hum, I’m going to have to formulate some thought for possible w-ws...

[Saurreg]

I concur with Elvisse. Nilpaurion is acting too strange.

There's this Chinese saying; "Far away in the horizon, but right before your eyes"

Perhaps we have a werewolf in the open after all? ;)