Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha! [Archive] - Page 2

Laitaine

08-17-2005, 07:55 PM

And your plan not the sort of thing that the Bear would propose as, if we lynch arcticstorm, there is a greater risk that the Wolves will kill him/her to-Night.

Not true, my friend--the Werebear really would be quite protected
If Arctic’s lynched, he wouldn’t have to worry ‘bout being detected.
He’d live to see another day and kill another night
And isn’t it the rule that Beorning wins in werewolf fight?

Aside from that, I do agree with everything you've said.
Arctic is the Sheriff, but tomorrow likely dead. :(

The time is drawing near, friends, for me to cast my vote
Today, it is most complex to consider all you've wrote.
There is little strange behavior going round our hapless town,
And I sincerely don't want to look like an evil clown.

But friends, today is difficult, there's little proof to see.
I'll have to go by my best guess--it's not great, believe me.
So far, the only people I've seen act suspiciously:
Gil-galad and Non, both too quiet and very vague too me.

Gil has written such a lack, it's really hard to know
And Non has seemed to bent on telling us that he's no foe.
Out of the two, Gil just seems a rather bumbling fool

(no offense)

But Non has spent far too much time telling us he's cool.
And "cool," of course, means "innocent"--but I am not convinced.
I think you may just be the one who had our Firefoot minced.
Or maybe you are the Black Beorning and you work alone,
Whatever fiend that you might be, I think it's time you're owned!

I realize that's a switch for me--from B]Durelin[/B] to Non,
But Durelin's not spoke much today--my choosing her'd be wrong.
Again, it's simply my best guess that I follow today...but...
I will wait till later to see what you others say.

*plays recorder in subdued tone, looking around suspiciously*

Durelin

08-17-2005, 07:56 PM

I am still suspicious of Durelin. She explained herself a little yesterday, but now I see her quick vote(yesterday) for Saucepan Man. That vote smells like an attempted start at a bandwagon.
A bandwagon? There was too much suspicion around CoD for me to convince anyone otherwise. The bandwagoning against CoD had already begun, and there was no stopping it.

arcticstorm the other Shirrif? Well, if he is not lying, then he will be killed tonight anyway. If he is lying, then he will not. Thus tomorrow we'll know if he's lying or not. Perhaps not for sure, but we'll have a better idea.

Actually, I think that your comment yester-Day is probably nearer the mark:
SaucepanMan says too much, and really has no idea what he's doingI think you're right. :p

Boromir88 is my prime suspect to be a wolf or the bear. Particularly the bear. He helped greatly in getting CoD lynched, though rather subtly, and not being the leader of the accusations. I'm wondering what he's trying to say here:

However, my vote for him was not in an attempt to start a bandwagon (there were other purposes which I wish not to reveal).
The two L's are suspects for wolves as well, due to their relative quietness, and their voting. Lalaith was the last to vote for CoD, Lataine voted for me, perhaps to separate herself from Lalaith, or just because she thought CoD was innocent (which he was). I'm not sure about these two.

Dancing Spawn is someone I will keep my eye on as a possible wolf, as her vote for CoD was very well timed.

I'm not sure about Gurthang either. He says he is still suspicious of me, though I was not a part of the lynching of CoD. I know this does not completely assure anyone that I am innocent, but I'd like to hear more from Gurthang as to why he is suspicious of me.

I think Gil-Galad is the Cobbler, and is too brash to be a wolf. Or he is simply the usual confused innocent villager

Most of this has already been said by others, but I thought I should voice my own suspicions, that are mostly based upon others' posts. Sorry for my absence. And again, I am forced to depart before the end of this day, and thus I must vote at this point. (It's about 9:45pm here, and Day will end at 8 am. Sorry, that's too early for me. :p)

++Boromir88

Sorry, he's the best shot I can think of. Someone might as well start the voting. I hope no one will consider this an attempt to bandwagon. Obviously everyone should vote for who they think is guilty. This would be a very sorry attempt at bandwagoning, anyway....

Meneltarmacil

08-17-2005, 07:56 PM

Well, I have to *ahem* "leave ye village hexagon" in a few minutes and don't really feele like getting up after all ye other votes are in, so I'll juste vote like I saide earlier.

++Gil-Galad

Now to set ye Beare and Wolfe trappes arounde my fortified manor house...

arcticstorm

08-17-2005, 07:59 PM

My minde is somewhat blanke at this pointe. arcticstorm, if thou hast any insighte as a Sherriff, I aske thee to share it.

Unfortunately, when Firefoot died she had many people, at least ten, as possible wolves, and I had at least one other on the list. AS to Samwise's possible solution of lynching me tonight, it would be a mistake to lynch a known innocent. Doing so would free up two more innocents to die tonight, though by lynching someone else we may kill an innocent, we may get a wolf or bear.
As to Saucepan's plan that we lynch everyone else, It would not work even if everyone voted for themselves, and I did not vote. Because we know the wolves, bear, and cobbler would not vote for themselves. And though they would reveal themselves in that way, they conceivably could force a quadrupel lynching. Kill two more tonight. That is 6 dead. out of 14 left? leaving those 4, plus what, four others? So the villagers would not be able to lynch them all at once, because the wolves and cobbler would help eachother. maybe killing one of them with the help of the bear. So what we would have is 1 or 2 wolves, 0 or 1 cobbler, 1 bear, 4 villagers. so say the wolves kill a villager. and the bear, in his best interests, would have to kill a villager. leaving 1 wolf, 1 cobbler, 1 bear, 2 villagers. so this day the bear would not want to kill the wolf, because the cobbler, I doubt would support him in the end. BUt maybe. But if the 2 villagers and the bear get the last wolf. leaving one death at night. what would be left is 1 cobbler 1 villager 1 bear. If the cobbler decides in the last to support the bear the bear would win, if not the villager would. If a villager is killed during the day, instead of the wolf. The wolf would kill the bear, and with the cobbler's help would win the game. And by mixing the other scenario's around, I do not see many paths leading to a villager victory.

wilwarin538

08-17-2005, 08:01 PM

I have to go to sleep and really don't want to get up early tomorrow. But I'm afraid I can't vote today. I am still suspicious of certain people but not enough to vote for any one. I will hopefully wake tomorrow to the death of a werewolf or bear.

(my reasons for not voting are the same as they were on day one)

SamwiseGamgee

08-17-2005, 08:10 PM

Ok, articstorm, I hear you. My idea was only that, and it would only have worked if everyone got on board, so there we are. My big concern is if the wolves don't kill you tonight what are we going to do? At that point I'm going to find it very hard to continue believing you.

Now I must take my rest. I hope to be up just in time to vote and hopefully see a wolfen fiend hang!

arcticstorm

08-17-2005, 08:17 PM

Samwise, with your and Durelin's recent posts. If I was a wolf and there was a known innocent, that not everyone was convinced, but is willing to accept. I would leave him alive tonight kill two other innocents, so that the next day the village would kill the known innocent suspecting him of lying. So if I do survive tonight, the chances are slim that I will survive the next day and night. They may try to convince the village that I am not what I say by keeping me alive tonight, killing two innocents, and convincing the village to kill a known innocent the next day, it would further their plan even more. Either way, I will not survive the next night-day-night period. If I am not lynched the next day by the village calling their bluff they will kill me the next night.

The Saucepan Man

08-17-2005, 08:32 PM

As to Saucepan's plan that we lynch everyone else, It would not work even if everyone voted for themselves, and I did not vote.Actually, it would not work because the Wolves, Bear and Cobbler simply wouldn't vote. It might be manageable with more known innocents and an agreed deadline for voting - but it's too risky to warrant any other Gifteds declaring themselves. I was really only looking for reactions.

My big concern is if the wolves don't kill you tonight what are we going to do? At that point I'm going to find it very hard to continue believing you.There are a number of reasons why arcticstorm might not die tonight. Gurthang and arcticstorm have both outlined the main ones. Another is that both the Wolves and the bear might (rightly or wrongly) think that they have identified the Seer. I really do not believe that arcticstorm is bluffing, and I will continue to believe that even if he survives this Night.

Oh, and you can add wilwarin538 to my suspect list. I don't care what the reasons are. At this stage in the Day, deciding not to vote at all is suspicious behaviour in my eyes.

arcticstorm

08-17-2005, 08:52 PM

I have been thinking hard about whether to vote now or later, the only problem is I do not know if I will be here in time, but I will risk it. Right now I am most suspicious of Gil and will most likely vote that way later on today. If I am back in time, I will review everything else before posting my final vote. I am going to rest for a while and contemplate things.

Boromir88

08-17-2005, 08:55 PM

I will have to follow Meneltarmacil in this. I have never been more convinced that someone is guilty of treachery then tonight.

Yesterday, I was juggling between voting for CoD, Gil-Galad, and Durelin. Regretably I made a wrong choice. So, coming into today Gil-galad was my main suspicion and nothing new has been said to change that suspicion. In fact, I am more confident than I have ever been previously...

His slipperyness and quick responses got him passed yesterday, and got my mind off him, and led me down the wrong path to CoD. I do not intend to have the same thing happen today.

++Gil-Galad

Boromir88

08-17-2005, 08:56 PM

Posting again, to sort of explain why I did not vote for Durelin. With her defense of CoD she's slipped down in suspicion for me. That doesn't mean I'm totally convinced, but she has definitely moved down the radar since yesterday.

Nonnacedak

08-17-2005, 09:38 PM

Yesterday I voted for Gil-Galad and I think today will be no different. Reasons for this vote have been said many times over so I feel I dont need to say why.

++Gil-Galad

I guess I have spent most of my posts stating that Im innocent and it has brought a tiny bit of suspicion my way. I guess Ill just attack from now on like everyone else.

wilwarin538 is of course up there. Havent heard much from her/him and not voting is a act pulling in suspicion. I mean if your not gonna vote listening to your words is kinda a waste of time.

Hopefully before the next day period Im still alive and the decisions will get easier. I must retire to my shack for now. Night Night!

Laitaine

08-17-2005, 10:25 PM

So, coming into today Gil-galad was my main suspicion and nothing new has been said to change that suspicion. In fact, I am more confident than I have ever been previously...

His slipperyness and quick responses got him passed yesterday, and got my mind off him, and led me down the wrong path to CoD. I do not intend to have the same thing happen today.[/B]

*yawn* Too tired...no time...to think...of good rhymes...
You words...sound true...I would...believe you...
However...I still...think Non...has ill will...

I think Gil-Galad is the Cobbler, and is too brash to be a wolf. Or he is simply the usual confused innocent villager

*shakes sleep out of eyes, frustrated*
I still can't believe Gil can be our best pick
Frankly, his speech suggests he's rather thick.
Wouldn't a wolf put more thought to the game
And at least try to stop people slandering his name?

*shrugs. yawns*

Could be a trick...though I think it's quite dumb...
But I guess there's a chance that he is a wolf-bum.
Agreed, Gil's been acting in a rather weird way,
But Non has defended himself every day.

If Gil is a werewolf, then I'll be impressed
I didn't think wolves would act like they care less.
But if it is true, then I will stand corrected
And gladly play tunes as his body's bisected.

*yawn* My vote...will still go...to who I think....the foe...

++NONNACEDACK

Gurthang

08-17-2005, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by Durelin
I'm not sure about Gurthang either. He says he is still suspicious of me, though I was not a part of the lynching of CoD. I know this does not completely assure anyone that I am innocent, but I'd like to hear more from Gurthang as to why he is suspicious of me.

I guess it's not so much that I'm still suspicious of you, as it is that I've not become unsuspicious. Your first day posts confused me and made me suspicious of you(hence my DAY 1 vote for you) and early into DAY 2 I still thought you were acting odd. You haven't done anything else since then I would consider really suspicious. So I'm not really that suspicious, it's more like I'm just keeping an eye on you.

Now, as I have said before, I still think Gil-Galad has acted wolfish. Especially for that unexplained DAY 1 vote. So:

++Gil-Galad

voting so far(including me):

Boromir88 - 1
Gil-Galad - 4
Nonnacedak - 1

Lalaith

08-18-2005, 01:32 AM

I don't have time to read through everything properly right now, but I will say this.
1. It is extremely unlikely that Arcticstorm is bluffing. Not only does past evidence speak in his favour (I had more or less worked out it was him) but nobody else has come forward to disagree with him.
2. Top of my suspect list right now are Lmp and Gil. In fact, in case I don't have time to come back, I'm going to go for it, I think Gil is a fairly safe vote.
++Gil-Galad

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-18-2005, 03:46 AM

I still think that Gil is more likely a cobbler than a werething. Mith said that maybe we shouldn't ignore the obvious. She didn't probably think that she would get caught so soon and tried to cover her double bluffing friends. Or then she felt safe enough to left a clue right under our noses so she could gloat later. But maybe this Gil mystery will reveal to us soon.

Votes are:

Boromir
1. Durelin

Gil-Galad
2. Menel, 3. Boromir, 4. Nonnacedak, 6. Gurthang, 7. Lalaith

Nonnacedak
5. Laitaine

Seven out of fourteen have voted. Wilwa said that she won't vote so that leaves six votes left. Basically, anything can still happen.

I'm quite suspicious of Nonnac right now. Also, I wonder why Lalaith accused me by saying that I hadn't mentioned Mith earlier although that wasn't true. But my biggest suspect is lmp.

I've voiced my suspicions of him a couple times earlier and SpM has some very good points in his post #244. I won't probably be able to come back before the voting is closed... you know, I'm trying to make the biggest glass vase this hamlet has ever seen.

So, I'll vote for ++LMP.

littlemanpoet

08-18-2005, 04:02 AM

Is this a not-so-cryptic hinte that we oughte to looke out for Laitaine? Or is this Knighte reading too muche into thy poste?

You're reading too much in. I had actually composed it when I was still most suspicious of arcticstorm & Boromir, figuring only one might get lynched, the other survive, and want to get rid of me because I'm too close to the truth; which obviously ain't so! (durn it) But I felt like posting the ditty anyway. Sorry to mislead yet again! I just made another custard pie.

::LMP smashes eggy custard pie in own face::

What makes me suspicious are your mistakes...

I blame that on my very shorthand notes. I jot a quick couple words on each post to get the kernel idea and hope for the best. Unfortunately, it has resulted in some mistakes in the details. Sorry about that. If I were a werewolf or werebear, I would be far more careful than I have been, for reasons stated in my first post toDay.

It's not inconceivable that Lmp had the same suspicion as I did about arcticstorm and set about flushing him out on purpose with his accusations. :D You give me far too much credit.

I agree it would be foolish to be set on one person. Quite. As you saw, I had two. Now I have none. Sigh.

I just thought of something. And this is probably as bad an idea as arcticstorm's: double lynch. Maybe we get lucky and kill two werethings at one go. Probably not though. Still, I just feel like Gil is playing games with all our minds instead of being a werethingy. Therefore, one of my next most suspicious gets my vote:

++ Nonnacedak

Laitaine, paint me not with the brush of wickedness.
Though I've mistaken twice today, 'twas attempted rightliness.
Note too that your sprightly versing I most certainly have noticed,
and is my main grounds for leaving you off my werelist.

And I agree with you about Nonna, obviously.

Also, lmp, you said that in post #44 I voted late and safe for Mith. Um, no. I was second to vote for her, convinced by Firefoot's reasoning. I did notice that your vote came later than the others, but my notes also revealed that Mith had already been under suspicion well before your vote; which still makes me doubt you. It would have been, borrowing the words of Spawn, a shameless act from a fellow werewolf, but werewolves are shameless. They have to be. Your crazy plan to lynch a known innocent worries ME about YOU. Nevertheless, it appears to be too bold for a werethingy. Others have sufficiently answered you.

Spawn seems innocent because she has been straightforward, just as you have, SPM. She sounds right. Funny, I thought I did, too, yet I'm suspected of being a Bear. But then this time in our village is all about reading things into others' words which may or may not be there. Sigh.

And think about this: Perhaps the wolves and the bear will both try to kill arcticstorm. Or maybe he'll survive because they figure the other evil party will go after him. Or they'll both take a stab at who they think the Seer might be instead.

As for the Bear, well LMP remains my prime suspect. Just a note in case you all lynch me. Since I'm not the Bear, who's the best choice instead? But please don't try for the Bear if you have a good idea who a Wolf is!

Now here goes Durelin, casting suspicion so far and wide that I gotta wonder if we weren't onto somthing earlier. I mean, what's up with a suspect list of no less than five fellow villagers when there are only 2 werewolves, 1 werebear, and 1 cobbler? I suppose maybe she's being "thorough". Hmmmm....

Wilwarin's continued failure to vote is less than stellar gaming, for one thing, and otherwise suspicious.

I just saw Spawn's vote for me. Oh well. If I die before I wake....

SamwiseGamgee

08-18-2005, 04:13 AM

++ Gil-Galad

I'm really pretty sure that he's some sort of were-creature, and even if he's not the confusion he's casting in this village is counter-productive and distracting. That may sound fanatical, but it's really just me saying that he could be the cobbler.

I must leave now and earn my keep- I hope to reurn in time to find a gallows with a werewolf or bear hanging upon it. If there is not may Wargy protect this village of Hamlet.

wilwarin538

08-18-2005, 05:08 AM

Well luckily I have wocken up this morning early enough to vote, its 7 am where I am so that doesn't happen very often. I hope you guys beleive me when I say that I din't vote because I was not prepared to vote for any one, now after reading what has been said since last night I will vote for:

++Nonnacedak

For reasons stated by others.

arcticstorm

08-18-2005, 05:10 AM

I have been thinking about this, and with Gil most likely being the cobbler and probably going to be lynched anyway. I will therfore vote for our resident feline who has been on my suspicion list for some time.

++Durelin

The Saucepan Man

08-18-2005, 05:35 AM

Well, with only two votes left (including mine), Gil-Galad will be lynched, and there is thankfully no possibility of a tie.

I am still inclined to believe that Gil is innocent or the Cobbler. I can't help but feel that, were he a Wolf, he would have made sure to vote yester-Day, when the voting was tight, to save himself. Then again, his Day 1 vote speaks against him, as does his claim, earlier to-Day, that he might be the victim of a frame-up.

I suppose that there are worse choices than Gil. He just might be a Wolf, and could quite possibly be the Cobbler. And, if he is innocent, I highly doubt that he is one of our remaining Gifteds.

Well, since my vote will now make no difference, I will use against the one person of whom I have become more and more suspicious as to-Day has progressed.

++ DANCING SPAWN OF UNGOLIANT

She states that she voiced suspicion of Mithalwen on Day 1, but that was at a time when Mithalwen, with 6 votes, looked fairly likely to be lynched. She voted for her shortly afterwards, when Mithalwen's fate was almost certainly sealed. That seems to me to be a perfect way for a Wolf to clothe herself in innocence and thereby profit from the death of one of her own kind. Also, her vote for CaptainofDespair was fairly decisive, putting him two votes ahead of Gil-Galad. Quite possibly, she concluded from what he had said in his defence that he was the Ranger.

I remain suspicious of the others identified in my previous post too. And, whether Gil-Galad turns out to be Wolf, Cobbler, Bear or innocent, his death may well serve to provide further enlightenment.

Oddwen

08-18-2005, 06:14 AM

The votes crept in, and silently put a "lynch me!" sign on the back of none other than Gil-Galad, that resident gravekeeper, town cryer, and garrisoned soldier.

"Year ye, hear ye, I am about to be lynched!" he cried as they took hold of him. "Who will dig my grave?"

"Oh, I don't think you'll need one," they said. "As we're going to burn you at the stake, and there'll be nothing left of your body when we're done."

"Correct me if I'm wrong but is that a CHALLENNNNNGE?? Double doooooooooooooooooce!"

And as he brought his red glov'd hands to bear, his friendly face through his red parka morphed! A snout began to grow from whence sprung his nose, a tail sprung from his hinder parts, and he snarled fiercely. Then he began to caper about strangely. "You thought I was the Cobbler! That is so dumb! That sounds like it is soooo dumb!"

They took ahold of him and struggled him to the remains of the Ugly Duckling, and tied him to the pole that LMP used to dance with when he was drunk.

Gil struggled and glared and howled at the throng, but paused when Saucie brought a lantern.

"Hey Sauciepan Man, whaaaaat are you doing?"

Saucie said naught, but threw the lantern onto the alcohol-soaked wood.

"Jibblie jibblie jibblie!" shuddered Gil as the lantern cascaded towards the wood, and immediately burst into a fireball visible from eighty leagues away. Indeed, far away Rohan was summoned to Gondor before they realized their mistake.

When the Villagers raised themselves from the ground, all that was left of the scene was a huge pile of ash and a twisted metal pole.

"Now that," said the Villagers coughing and spluttering, "Is a jorb well done."

"Hey!" cried one digging at the ashes of the fire. "This isn't dirt! I-it's pudding!"

"YAY!!"

---------------------

Living:
Arcticstorm
Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Gurthang
Laitaine
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man
Wilwa

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3
Gil-Galad (Werewolf) - Lynch'ed!! on DAY 3

It is now NIGHT 4. DAY 4 will begin in 23 3/4 hours.
I need names from the Bear, Seer, Wolf, and Hunter.

Oddwen

08-19-2005, 06:02 AM

Arcticstorm labored far into the night, writing furiously on his treatise entitled "Tom Bombadil: Maia, Enigma, Starship Captain or Ulari?", when there came a tap on his shoulder. He whirled around, but there was no-one there.

After a moment's pause, he returned to his work. There came another tap.

This time, he jumped out of his chair and rolled under his desk. In these times, it didn't pay not to be paranoid.

A pair of furry feet exited the closet, and tiptoed towards the desk. Arcticstorm readied the small dagger that he kept about his person and hoped it would be enough.

The Wolf jabbed a long pole underneath, pinning Arcticstorm against the wall and crushing him. Arctic struggled, and finally tipped his desk over, scattering papers and snapping the pole. Most of "Balrog Wings: Crispy or Regular Recipe?" and "REB: Could it be Real?" immediately combusted in the fire, and many other works were destroyed in the struggle that ensued.

And long was the struggle, and though Arctic put up a good fight, in the end he was overcome. The Wolf made a good meal out of him, and wrote a paper of its own entitled "Philosophers: A Thorough Inspection Of the Innards Of", and went off whistling.

The Villagers were dismayed the next morning - their only known innocent was dead. They gathered up his remains and laid them to rest, along with most of his papers (They didn't hold much with superstitious "canonicity"), and some drawings that had been Firefoots.

And then what sorrow met their eyes as they gathered for the DAY- Wilwa, that same who discovered 538 new species of butterflies in her lifetime, they found against the wall, pinned with a single long nail. Even the Bear, it seems, is not without a sense of subtlety.

But wait, the breath hadn't quite left her! "Who did this to you?" they cried.

But all she said was "Tell the Mormegil that Wilwarin is here", and then she died.

Alas, the sorrow that was theirs!

Living:

Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Gurthang
Laitaine
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3
Gil-Galad (Werewolf) - Lynch'ed!! on DAY 3
Arcticstorm (Sherriff) - Touched by a ten foot pole on NIGHT 4
Wilwarin (Villager) - This fine specimen displayed on NIGHT 4

It is now DAY 4. Have fun.

**note**

I will be out of town until Sunday. Please forward any DAY and following NIGHT questions/business to Shelob.

littlemanpoet

08-19-2005, 06:24 AM

I'm writing this post during NIGHT phase in order to post as soon as I can on DAY 4 ...

1. I'll survive the Night.

So why am I predicting my own survival? No, I'm not a werebeast. Rather, the werebear won't kill me because I'm diverting suspicion from her. Yes, look for a female, I think; potentially Lalaith. Further, the werewolf will leave me alone because all your suspicions against me are diverting attention away from her too (yes, female again, is my guess, like Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant. Can't help thinking SPM is onto something there.

2. The Seer will be killed tonight, attacked by both werebear and werewolf, because that person has not bee subtle enough to escape their notice.

3. Arcticstorm will escape death for one more night because neither werebeast can afford to allow the Seer to stay alive for another night.

4. The Seer will have dreamed of me last night, because of so much suspicion directed my way. And therefore will have been apprised of my innocence. But fat lot of good that does me, with seer dead. If the Seer has, by some crazy chance survived the Night, please vouch for me before you die, because you know I'm innocent.

5. Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant and Nonnacedak will not have been killed, because I think the former is the Bear and the latter is the remaining Wolf. Spawn voted for me when the issue was well decided, to keep suspicion on me.

If, by some bizaare chance, our Hunter has led the werewolf and werebear to believe him to be the Seer, he will have pulled off a major strategy coup, and we are on our way to winning, against all odds. If this has been the case, congratulations on a game most excellently played.

I recommend a double lynching of Spawn & Nonnacedak; better to survive and face the wrath of Moddwen

++ Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

Lalaith

08-19-2005, 06:44 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith
It's not inconceivable that Lmp had the same suspicion as I did about arcticstorm and set about flushing him out on purpose with his accusations.

You give me far too much credit.

Au contraire, mon cher boulanger, I know you to be a most intelligent chap, and if I could work it out then so could you, easily.
You made a comment yesterday I found rather interesting:

Or maybe he'll (Arcticstorm) survive because they figure the other evil party will go after him. Or they'll both take a stab at who they think the Seer might be instead.

A fair point, perhaps. But could it also be interpreted as a message to your fellow-furry? The bear and the remaining wolf do not know each other's identities, they cannot communicate by PM. By this stage of the game they are enemies, the bear will be trying to kill the wolf. But one thing unites them, they would both want the Shirriff dead, but they would also want another kill in the night. They had to make sure they were both following the same plan.

Boromir88

08-19-2005, 06:46 AM

This will be my only post you'll see from me in a while. I'm going on a little trip, but should be back by 6 or so, so I'll be able to vote and weigh in and all the rest, just you won't see many posts from me until later.

lmp, I am more sure of your innocence today mo so then yesterday. I think you will have to do some explaining (for me atleast). I agree that the wolves would not stick together so closely especially on day 1. That would have to be the boldest move I would have seen played, it does give you no flexibility. The only thing is, the wolves could have set this plan up, but not intending one of their own to be caught on Day 1. So, that I think you'll need to explain to me, because I can not know your innocence, and it'll be you or if the Seer steps out that will have to convince me.

I know suspicions of me are arrising. I will say this before I go, if I was the bear I must be a really stupid bear to continually vote the same way people have claimed the bear would vote. Would you not think? Anyway, when I get back I'll explain more if needed.

As far as catching the bear. I think it's accurate to say the bear does not care who gets lynched as long as its not himself/herself. So, either the bear votes very early (Durelin) who has often done so, though this may be because of not wanting to get up. Or the bear votes typically late, hoping to get a double lynching. (When I look through the votes I'll give some insight).

I am less inclined to believe it's Durelin. She did defend Captain when he was being put up for werebearary. I don't think a bear would do that, if the bear does not care who gets lynched. In fact, if she was the bear, she would know Captain was not the bear, therefor probably would have voted for Captain, knowing she'd be killing an innocent.

Lalaith

08-19-2005, 07:11 AM

Oh, and another point, I am quite baffled by Lmp's post above. First he says I'm the bear and dancing spawn is the wolf.
Then he says spawn is the bear and Nonnacedak is the wolf and suggests a double lynching of both of them (Nonnacedak was btw the first to vote for Gil the wolf two days running, so he's a pretty treacherous wolf if he is one...)

Nonnacedak

08-19-2005, 07:32 AM

Well let me say first off I have yet to not vote for a wolf...... Mith, Gil, Gil. I would be willing to bet a day's worth of trout that LMP or Laitaine is the other wolf. The lonesome last wolf was trying to get suspision on me therefore voting for me just because I have been the bane of their existance.

I cant prove that Im not the bear or can I say that I think I have any Idea who it may be. If you must lynch me though so be it. At this point Im willing to take one for the village.

Laitaine

08-19-2005, 07:49 AM

*raises eyebrows* Gil, a werewolf…*whistles*

Well, I never saw that coming, but clearly I was wrong
I still think the final werewolf is our fisher, Non.
Makes perfect sense for him to jump on wagon for Gil‘s kill,
His reasoning for doing so sound much like our dear Gil’s:

Yesterday I voted for Gil-Galad and I think today will be no different. Reasons for this vote have been said many times over so I feel I dont need to say why.

Compare:

after reviewing the posts, i have decided to cast my vote to

++Gurthang

no hard feelings chap, my reasons have already been said by other people, so instead of wasting time...

*eyes bulge*
Gil-galad was a wolf, my friends, we can’t believe his words.
Non sounds so much like him, he too should not be heard!.

(Nonnacedak was btw the first to vote for Gil the wolf two days running, so he's a pretty treacherous wolf if he is one...)

Gil already’d been suspected for these past two days
It wasn’t like Non just decided he wanted his friend slayed.
Suspicion stacked against him, Gil really had no chance
I tell you, Non jumped on the wagon, saving his own pants!

*takes a deep breath, blows soothing D on recorder to calm self*

‘Twould not be fair to vote for him without his chance to speak.
But I tell you, in my eyes, Non, your future’s very bleak.
And now my friends, I must depart for the entire rest of day.
(I’m moving into college that’s about five hours away).
I doubt I will be able to come back before day ends,
But I don’t think it fair to vote now and not hear from you friends.
I have my firm convictions against that character Non,
But vote without his chance to speak? I will not have it done.

Friends, if I do not return, then my vote won’t be cast.
I realize this is risky, but I will not vote too fast.
By “fast,” I mean right now, because I’m leaving soon today.
Wish me luck upon my journey, and may you all find your way.

*bounds off with eighteen trunks and bags, tooting trusty recorder*

Gurthang

08-19-2005, 07:54 AM

Well, I must say I am somewhat distrurbed by LMP. He seems sincere, but allow me to point something out:

Originally posted by LMP
4. The Seer will have dreamed of me last night, because of so much suspicion directed my way. And therefore will have been apprised of my innocence. But fat lot of good that does me, with seer dead. If the Seer has, by some crazy chance survived the Night, please vouch for me before you die, because you know I'm innocent.

That sounds like a wolfish attempt to flush out the Seer. That wouldn't make much sense, considering the Seer wouldn't vouch for him because either he hasn't been dreamed of or he knows that LMP's a wolf. Unless LMP is the cobbler. Or he could be bluffing.

I'm going to read back over his posts and see what I can find.

Meneltarmacil

08-19-2005, 08:14 AM

littlemanpoet

08-19-2005, 08:54 AM

I've noticed that a few of you are immediately working with the hypothesis of "Say LMP is a werebeast; how do his words read?"

Seeing as I'm getting so much attention anyway: If you're thinking about voting to lynch me, I propose that you also try out the hypothesis of "Say LMP is actually an innocent Ord, fumbling around blindly just like the rest of us; how do his words read?"

Then compare your results. I haven't done the comparison because I already know what I am; I don't need to. But go ahead and do it, I request, and see what the results are. I'm not convinced I'll come out "smelling" any better, but I'd be interested to see what you come up with.

Okay, yes, I contradicted myself. My final paragraph and vote were tagged on very early this morning and I forgot to read what I'd written last night. Sorry. Consider my final paragraph to supercede the ones they contradict.

Lalaith, I still say you give me too much credit. I may have intelligence, but analysis is not my strength. I try to do my best, but as you have seen, I'm not that great at checking my facts - - - especially when I don't have the kind of time (or home computer) available that this situation requires.

Oh, and about the above proposal/request, ask yourself "why would LMP vote so early again...

1-if he was a werewolf?
2-if he was a werebear?
3-if he was an innocent Ord as he claims?

See what you come up with. Again, I'd be interested. Since I've already voted, I'm not sure how much I'll be back, but I promise to read every post at least once.

Durelin

08-19-2005, 08:55 AM

I don'te thinke we shoulde let Durelin out of our sights. On ye firste Daye, she voteth not for Mithalwen, but for Firefoot, who turneth out to be innocente. On ye seconde Daye, she bandwagoneth withe CaptainofDespair and attempteth to lynche Ye Saucepan Man, while yesterDaye, she saith:

I think Gil-Galad is the Cobbler, and is too brash to be a wolf. Or he is simply the usual confused innocent villager
and insteade voteth for Boromir88. Notice a patterne? On bothe Days when a Wolfe is aboute to be lynched, she attacketh someone else. I thinke she is ye laste Wolfe, or ye Cobbler.
First of all, I knew Saucepan Man had you all against CoD, but I felt he was innocent, so I felt my best bet was to vote for who he considered to be guilty. I just did not want innocent blood on my hands.

And as for Gil...I'm sorry, but I think he played the role of the werewolf way too openly. I never would have expected a wolf to have done so. I suppose that might be why he risked it. But now we have two wolves down, and the victory of the village looks possible....though so does the victory of the bear.

LMP's plan is interesting. It might be our best bet. But we need to hear from Dancing Spawn, and it would be nice to hear some more from Nonnedack. I think it's more possible that Non is the bear, though it is also possible that he is a wolf, simply because there was little he could do to stop any lynchings of his fellow wolves. They were caught red-handed, being very wolfish.

I still am unsure about our Boromir. Unfortunately it seems he will be gone, and I'd much like to hear from him. Darn. Well, hopefully I shall have time to look over previous posts later (again).

I am also still not very trusting of Saucepan Man. I still think it's possible that he is a rather bold bear. Whatever he's been doing, it's been keeping him out of suspicion, either rightfully, or not.

And there should be no ruling out of anyone, I believe. We have one wolf and one bear left, and I think it's, in a way, easier for them to hide now.

EDIT: Cross-posted with LMP...maybe others....

The Saucepan Man

08-19-2005, 08:58 AM

OK, folks, let’s not panic. While there’s no denying that arcticstorm’s death is a blow, it was not unexpected. And it was likely that another innocent would die too. I’m sorry that it was wilwarin, but it at least knocks another Villager off my suspect list. Take heart, fellow Villagers. Let’s look on the positives. We killed another Wolf last night, a fantastic result, and we still have our Seer and our Hunter.

Now, I have to date advocated keeping an eye out for the Bear, and I counsel no differently to-Day. But we have now happily arrived at a situation where killing either the Wolf or the Bear will put an end to the two kills per night. And, while a lone Wolf may be more difficult to spot, we do have much more to go on as far as the Wolf is concerned. In particular, the votes cast to date. I therefore believe that we should today concentrate on catching the last Wolf. The fact that we have now killed two Wolves makes the previous days’ votes even more helpful in this task.

So, here’s my traditional list of yester-Day’s votes:

1. Durelin for Boromir88 (Boromir 88 - 1)
2. Menel for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 1)
3. Boromir88 for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 2)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3)
5. Laitaine for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3; Nonnacedak - 1)
6. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 4; Nonnacedak - 1)
7. Lalaith for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1)
8. Dancing spawn for LMP (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1; LMP - 1)
9. LMP for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
10. SamwiseGamgee for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
11. Wilwarin538 for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1)
12. Arcticstorm for Durelin (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1)
13. SpM for dancing spawn (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1; dancing spawn - 1)

Gil-Galad did not vote. (Perhaps he thought that, by not doing so, he would divert suspicion away from himelf should he survive the Day.)

So what can we learn from this?

I would say that the following are almost certainly not Wolves, because of their early votes for Gil-Galad:

Meneltarmacil
Boromir88
Nonnacedak
Gurthang

That list happily coincides with my list of Villagers who are almost certainly not Wolves from the Mithalwen vote. SamwiseGamgee was on that list and for that reason, I believe him innocent of Werewolvery too. Nonnacedak has pointed out that he is the only Villager to have voted for a Wolf on each Day. I had noticed that too. His votes are so not the votes of a Wolf. So I hope that we will have no more nonsense about him being the Wolf.

*glares at LMP and Laitaine*

The only other person to vote for Gil-Galad was Lalaith. At the time she voted, he could still have been saved. But it was unlikely and she perhaps thought that she would be better off voting for him to given the appearance of innocence and “go it alone” as the lone Wolf. So she remains one of my suspects, but less so.

That leaves:

The Saucepan Man
Durelin
Laitaine
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
LMP

Indeed, if you look back on the previous Days’ voting, knowing now the identity of two of the Wolves, these are the Villagers whose votes look the most suspicious. Laitiane and dancing spawn have voted suspiciously each day.

Yes, I am on one of my own lists again. How bold of me! Only, I can assure you, if you are not already convinced, that I am no Wolf and I am no Bear.

I said yesterday that I do not believe that LMP is the Wolf. I did not say why. I think that perhaps I should now explain. On Day 1, as has been noted on a number of occasions, Mithalwen suggested that he might be the Seer. Her grounds for doing so were his status as a replacement of Azaelia of Willowbottom. If he was a Wolf, she would surely not have drawn attention to that issue. I had been reluctant to point this out earlier in case he was the Seer. I am now convinced that he is not. He is either the Hunter, the Cobbler or the Bear. So he should not be lynched today (assuming that you agree with me that we should be focusing on the Wolf).

In light of all that, I am now all but convinced that our remaining Wolf is one of the following:

Durelin
Laitaine
Lalaith
Dancing spawn

Let’s examine each one in detail:

Durelin: She voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1, for a known innocent. Her early vote for me on Day 2 is less suspicious – wanting to save CaptainofDespair in case he was the ranger (as he was) is most un-Wolfish behaviour. She was top of Gil-Galad’s Day 2 suspect list (the only suspect list he ever made). She voiced suspicions of him on Day 3, but thought that he was either the Cobbler or a confused innocent (as did I). Her early vote for Boromir88, who never seemed like a potential lynch victim to me, was most un-Wolfish. She is suspicious, but least so out of my four Wolf suspects.

Laitaine: She also voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1, again for a known innocent, and mildly defended Mithalwen at the same time (although I recognise that she would have had a better chance of saving Mithalwen had she voted for Gurthang, Firefoot or Menel). She was mildly suspicious of Gil-Galad on Day 2, but also suggested that he might simply be “deranged”. She did not vote for him, but instead voted for Durelin to put her equal on votes with Gil. In her favour, Gil-Galad did also include her on his Day 2 suspect list, but that may have been a tactic in case he was caught. Laitaine mentioned Gil-Galad (amongst others) as suspicious on Day 3, but later suggested that he seemed only to be a “bumbling fool”, rather than a Wolf. And she defended him again when voting (for Nonnacedak), suggesting that he was innocent but “rather thick”. At that time, he still only had 3 votes and might yet have been spared the noose. Indeed, Laitaine seems to have been quite dismissive of Gil’s guilt throughout – perhaps supporting his “nonchalant” behaviour. What better way to surreptitiously defend a fellow Wolf than to criticise him as an innocent fool. She is very suspicious, although she is almost certainly not the Bear (because of her vote for Alcarillo followed by his death at the Bear’s hands (paws?) the very next Night).

Lalaith: She mildly defended Mithalwen and voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1 for another potential lynchee, but not the obvious one (Gurthang). She voiced no suspicion of Gil-Galad on Day 2 and voted for CaptainofDespair at a time when Gil-Galad could still have been lynched (although that could potentially have resulted in a double lynching). She voted for Gil-Galad on Day 3, but had not accused him at all previously, having said that he was either just being himself or was the Cobbler. Moreover, her Day 3 vote came at a time when he was looking likely to be lynched. She is still suspicious. She could be trying to hide with her vote for Gil, having decided that the Village looks kindly on those who have voted for Wolves and thinking she had a good chance of going it alone. But I suspect her less than I did.

Dancing spawn: On Day 1, she said that she thought that it was the Village’s primary aim to catch the Bear (perhaps an attempt to protect the Wolves). She could have been hiding with her vote for Mithalwen on Day 1, since Mithalwen’s fate was practically sealed. She did voice suspicions of Mithalwen when she still could have been saved, although she also said at the same time that we should not necessarily be looking at those who were most suspicious. She did voice strong suspicions of Gil on Day 2, but said she thought he might be the Cobbler. She then voted for CaptainofDespair to put him two ahead of Gil. She maintained her stance that Gil-Galad was the Cobbler on Day 3 and voted for LMP, a possible Bear (or Cobbler) but no Wolf. Her defence at #227 seemed to me to be a little over-the-top, but perhaps a Wolf would be careful to avoid displaying the same behaviour that gave Mithalwen away. Dancing spawn is still very suspicious in my eyes, but less so than Laitaine.

So my suspects for Wolf are Laitaine, dancing spawn, Lalaith and Durelin – in that order. LMP is still my prime suspect for Bear but, as I said, I think that we should focus on the Wolf today.

Lalaith

08-19-2005, 09:08 AM

Something has occurred to me.
Lmp may be the Cobbler. Yesterday, he urged the Seer to dream of him. If the Seer did indeed dream of him, he will just see an ordinary villager, of course.

SpM, I insist you you retract this statement about me, as misleading and untrue:
but [Lalaith] had not accused him at all previously, having said that he was either just being himself or was the Cobbler.
Here's what I said in post 220.
Gil-Galad - Like nearly all of us have said. Could be a wolf, could be the cobbler, could just be Gil.
Chief wolf suspects: LMP and dancing spawn. Minor wolf suspect: Gil.

I shall now go over your statements about others as well to check for accuracy. *glares suspiciously*

The Saucepan Man

08-19-2005, 09:24 AM

SpM, I insist you you retract this statement about me, as misleading and untrueCalm down, Lal! You have moved from chief Wolf suspect to Wolf suspect No 4 on my list over-Night. ;)

OK, it's not strictly correct, for which I apologise. I had not spotted your reference to him as a minor Wolf suspect, admittedly. But there was no intention to mislead and I don't think it really changes the import of my point.

Edit: That should be Wolf suspect No 3 ... :rolleyes:

Lalaith

08-19-2005, 09:32 AM

Harrumph. You miners are all the same. Putting words into people's mouths and twisting them something they didn't mean.

The Saucepan Man

08-19-2005, 10:00 AM

Some thoughts on what has been said so far today.

The Seer will be killed tonight, attacked by both werebear and werewolf, because that person has not bee subtle enough to escape their notice.This was LMP’s prediction for last Night. Personally, I think that the Seer has been very subtle – perhaps even too subtle (and no, that’s not an attempt to flush him or her out). However, I think that LMP may have thought that he had spotted the Seer yester-Day. I also believe that he dropped a hint as to who it might be and that (assuming that he is the Cobbler or the Bear) he was hoping that the Wolf would have picked up on it. I have an idea who LMP thinks the Seer might be, but I think that he’s wrong.

Nonnacedak will not have been killed, because I think … [he] is the remaining Wolf.

I still think the final werewolf is our fisher, Non.
Makes perfect sense for him to jump on wagon for Gil‘s kill,Please. Just look at his votes. A Wolf might vote for another Wolf at a critical time once or, if very bold, twice even. But three nights in a row!!??

LMP’s and Laitaine’s insistence that Nonnacedak is the Wolf look very suspicious to me. He may be the Bear, but he is not a Wolf.

I know suspicions of me are arrising.They are? As far as I can tell, only Durelin is suspicious of you.

Oh, and about the above proposal/request, ask yourself "why would LMP vote so early again...

1-if he was a werewolf?
2-if he was a werebear?Simple. You would do so to divert suspicion. Your early Day 1 vote has previously been noted as making you seem overly suspicious and therefore not something a Were-thing would do. If you are innocent, then you should not be voting with such haste, before we have all had a chance to share our thoughts over yester-Day’s lynching and last Night’s kills. I suspect dancing spawn too but I cannot be anything like certain and most certainly would not vote for her without giving her the opportunity to speak.

Lmp may be the Cobbler. Yesterday, he urged the Seer to dream of him. If the Seer did indeed dream of him, he will just see an ordinary villager, of course.A very good point. If he’s not the Bear, he may well be the Cobbler. Either way, however, I think we should be looking for the Wolf today.

And it seems to me that, so far to-Day, there has been far too much defensiveness and not enough analysis.

Lalaith

08-19-2005, 10:25 AM

Actually I would ask the Seer, whoever s/he, to be careful. I think attempts are being made to flush him/her out, and with eleven of us left of which only two killers remain, we need you around more than ever....

I am becoming increasingly convinced that lmp must be the Cobbler. As well as my Seer point earlier, I thought - why else flush out arcticstorm as Shirriff so conspiciously? If Lmp were a bear or wolf, having realised arcticstorm was the Shirriff he could just have killed him that night, the open way it was done suggests it was done for the benefit of the weres, not actually by a were.
So today we could do a lot worse than lynch Lmp.
BUT, Lmp's vote for spawn has got me wondering. Could it be a double bluff? Lmp knows he is under suspicion by an awful lot of us. His lead is unlikely to be followed, the vote might divert the rest of us away from spawn.

SamwiseGamgee

08-19-2005, 10:33 AM

I'm with SpM on this one- let's try to lynch the wolf tonight and concentrate on bearish behaviour later on. At the moment I do have a pretty good idea of who is the bear, but the wolf I am not so sure of. I think that Laitaine, however, is our biggest suspect at the moment. However, now that we know that Gil was a werewolf, we know that the werewolves were clearly willing to take some pretty considerable and frankly brazen risks to try and win this one, which means that some people who hadn't originally featured in my thinking are now creaping their way in.

As a little extra, lmp, I want you to know that I am not satisfied with the explanations you have given for the criticisms you made of me way back when (no really, when was that? I shall have to check!) and I will confront you on that soon, but not today: today I have other business.

The Saucepan Man

08-19-2005, 10:34 AM

Actually I would ask the Seer, whoever s/he, to be careful. I think attempts are being made to flush him/her out, and with eleven of us left of which only two killers remain, we need you around more than ever....I thoroughly agree. I do not, repeat not, want the Seer to come forward unless they have identified both of our remaining beasts. However, I do have some thoughts as to who the Seer might be and will be scanning certain Villager's posts very carefully for some guidance.

So today we could do a lot worse than lynch Lmp. We could do a lot better, though.

LMP as Cobbler is beginning to make a lot of sense, Lalaith. Your reasoning looks sound to me and I am now beginning to suspect you a lot less than I did previously.

The Saucepan Man

08-19-2005, 10:40 AM

However, now that we know that Gil was a werewolf, we know that the werewolves were clearly willing to take some pretty considerable and frankly brazen risks to try and win this one ...True, although it is more likely, in my view, that the Wolves will have behaved in different ways to avoid becoming conspicuous through similar patterns of behaviour.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-19-2005, 10:48 AM

I suspect dancing spawn too but I cannot be anything like certain and most certainly would not vote for her without giving her the opportunity to speak. Thanks, that's very generous of you.
Well, my vote for Mith is suspicious because I voted a wolf with the majority and my vote for lmp is supicious because I didn't vote a wolf with the majority. Make your minds, good people. :p

The Seer has done great job hiding his/her role. I trust the Seer's own deliberative ability to decide when to step forth. Anyway, the Seer is welcome to dream of me because I have nothing to hide.

I'll go now back to read what everybody has said during these last days. I just wanted to let you know that I'm here in case you want to start accusing me. ;)

Gurthang

08-19-2005, 11:09 AM

LMP, after going back and reading through you posts, I am now much less convinced that you are the werewolf or the werebear. But I am becoming increasingly suspicious that you are the cobbler.

One thing I have noticed is that you doubt your own ability to analyze and deduct, yet you said that you know who the Seer is because they have not been subtle enough. If true, you are obviously, and thankfully, smarter than the werecreatures because our Seer is still alive.

I'm going to look over the voting, and try to make a table out of it so it will be easier to read. I don't know if that will work, but...

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-19-2005, 11:31 AM

It's a shame that it was the wolf that killed Alcarillo because his death hardly leaves us any tracks to follow. The bear, for one, can kill whomever s/he pleases so I guess we can't draw too many conclusions from Wilwa's death, either.

I think it's plausible that lmp is the cobbler since I'm fairly convinced that there's something wrong with him. However, I agree that it's the easiest and most rewarding thing to kill the wolf today.

Btw, I don't like when people say things like "any fellow wolf with half a brain-cell would do one of two things" or "I must be a really stupid bear to coontinually vote the same way people have claimed the bear would vote". There aren't rules how a werebeast will act. Therefore there aren't any rules how they won't act, either.

Meneltarmacil

08-19-2005, 12:17 PM

I can'te put my finger on what Laitaine mighte be hiding. I doubte she is an Ordinary Villager, but what she truly is I knowe not. She maye be a Wolfe withe ye way she defendeth Gil-Galad and did not give her vote to Mithalwen, but suche actiones may indicate a Cobbler as welle.

A Wolfe she may be, in my opinione at leaste. I shalle be watching her, and will vote for her later unlesse something better cometh along.

Gurthang

08-19-2005, 12:21 PM

Okay, making a table is taking way to long, so I am just going to copy Saucepan Man's lists from each day. I have put wolf names and those that voted for them in Bold.

Day 1
1. LMP for Gurthang (Gurthang 1)
2. Mithalwen for Gurthang (Gurthang 2)
3. CaptainofDespair for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 1)
4. SamwiseGamgee for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 2)
5. Durelin for Firefoot (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 2; Firefoot 1)
6. Meneltarmacil for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 3; Firefoot 1)
7. Gil-Galad for Gurthang (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 3; Firefoot 1)
8. Boromir88 for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 4; Firefoot 1)
9. Alcarillo for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 5; Firefoot 1)
10. Nonnacedak for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1)
11. Mormegil for Meneltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1)
12. Laitaine for Alcarillo (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1)
13. Gurthang for Durelin (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
14. Lalaith for Menltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
15. Arcticstorm for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 7; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
16. Dancing spawn for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 8; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
17. The Saucepan Man for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 9; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
18. Firefoot for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 10; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)

Did not vote: Encaitare and wilwarin538 (although wilwa had earlier explained that she might not be able to vote).

Day 2
1. CaptainofDespair for SpM (SpM – 1)
2. Durelin for SpM (SpM – 2)
3. Meneltarmacil for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair – 1)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 1; Gil-Galad – 1)
5. SamwiseGamgee for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 2; Gil-Galad – 1)
6. Boromir88 for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 3; Gil-Galad – 1)
7. arcticstorm for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad – 1)
8. Laitaine for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 1; Durelin – 1)
9. Wilwarin538 for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 2; Durelin – 1)
10. Encaitare for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 1)
11. LMP for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
12. Dancing spawn for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
13. Firefoot for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 3)
14. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
15. SpM for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 6; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
16. Lalaith for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 7; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)

Gil-Galad did not vote.

And Day 3
1. Durelin for Boromir88 (Boromir 88 - 1)
2. Menel for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 1)
3. Boromir88 for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 2)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3)
5. Laitaine for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3; Nonnacedak - 1)
6. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 4; Nonnacedak - 1)
7. Lalaith for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1)
8. Dancing spawn for LMP (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1; LMP - 1)
9. LMP for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
10. SamwiseGamgee for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
11. Wilwarin538 for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1)
12. Arcticstorm for Durelin (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1)
13. SpM for dancing spawn (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1; dancing spawn - 1)

Gil-Galad did not vote. (Perhaps he thought that, by not doing so, he would divert suspicion away from himelf should he survive the Day.)

Seeing as how both Gil and Mithalwen voted for me on Day 1, it would stand to reason that the other wolf would not have voted for me. Which is exactly the reason I am suspicious of LMP. It's too good of a bluff to not work out. Yet his other posts make me think he is a cobbler rather than the third wolf.

So, let's take a look at the voting (of us living).

Nonnacedak is the only one who voted for a wolf every day.

Those that got wolves two out of three:
Boromir, Gurthang, Meneltarmacil, and SamwiseGamgee.

Those that got wolves one out of three:
Dancing Spawn, Lalaith, and Saucepan Man.

And those that never got a wolf:
Durelin, LMP, and Laitaine.

It makes sense to me that a wolf would not vote for a fellow were all three times. It is also unlikely they would not vote for their fellow at least once. That leaves the middle seven of us.

Boromir- voted early for Mith on Day 1 to put her ahead of me. Not very supsect.

Gurthang- (of course I don't suspect myself, but I'll write something here anyway) Voted for Gil two in a row, and early yesterday.

Meneltarmacil - voted early for Mith on Day 1, also to put her ahead of me. Not very suspect.

SamwiseGamgee - voted for Gil to seal his fate. (There still could have been a tie, but Gil would have died anyway.) Slightly suspect because the other voters that day weren't sticking together.

Dancing Spawn - voted late for Mith to seal death's door. Yet Saucepan had still voiced intent to vote for Mith. Slightly suspect.

Lalaith - voted in the middle for Gil to give him a four vote lead. Not very suspect.

Saucepan Man - voted late for Mith after death was assured. Slightly suspect.

Of the three that I just named 'Slightly suspect', I am only slightly suspect because I have not suspected them before this. I'd be interested in hearing some more from them.

I also note that LMP and Durelin have not voted for a wolf, and I have supsected both of them before.

Wow, sorry that was so long.

littlemanpoet

08-19-2005, 12:42 PM

Okay, I've had it. The more I say, the more everybody suspects me of something I'm not. Meanwhile the Cobbler, Werewolf, and Werebear are all chortling to themselves. They'll leave me alone every night because everybody suspects me so freakin' much until everybody decides to waste their bloody Day (whether it's 4 or later) voting to lynch me.

If I say "lynch me to at least stop confusing everybody who is also innocent", you'll all just figure that proves I'm the cobbler.

SPM, I'm sorry for not playing according to your favorite strategy, or even good strategy. My early vote this time was to try and flush out somebody or something, to take the initiative away from the bad guys, if I could. But it's getting all of the innocents more off track than anything else. I'm very sorry about that. It seems every time I say something you guys just read all kinds of stuff into it that I realize after the fact appears to be there. I apologize. I'm frustrated because I want us Innocents to bloody win, and at this rate it won't happen.

Oh, and SPM, AND EVERYBODY ELSE: I noticed that you didn't even consider the remote possibility that I'm just playing a really bad strategic game and am a bloody Innocent. I'm sorry to have mislead you all so badly.

I still think SPM is innocent, just wrong about me which means he's wrong about the Werebear. On everything else I think he's probably on target.

And Lal, please forgive me for acting cobblerish. I see how that can be read into my actions and words now. I sure as heck didn't mean it. This is SO d***d frustrating!!!

Oh, and Seer, don't come out until you have something. I'm expendable, but that does NOT make me the bloody cobbler! Gah!

Gurthang, the Seer is alive because the Seer is probably not who I thought it was. Smart Seer, yes. But it does not equate to me playing a very smart game.

I'm causing you guys so much confusion by UNINTENTIONALLY throwing you off track that you're right, I AM playing cobblerish, which is a shame, because I'm not the cobbler. But it may be better to get me out of the way anyway just so you have a clean slate.... on the off chance that we can beat the odds with 2 kills per Night for at least one more Night. I'm really sorry for setting back our odds, but maybe you just better off me, even though I'm innocent. And Ordinary.

No, please don't waste your Day lynching an Ordinary Innocent, because we need all the Days we have to get the werebeasts AND the cobbler.

I'm shutting up now because the more I say the more all the rest of you innocents get off track reading bullcrap into my words.

Nonnacedak

08-19-2005, 12:57 PM

I find this last post by LMP rather entertaining. :D

Gurthang's
Nonnacedak is the only one who voted for a wolf every day.

Enough said

At this point I think Laitaine is the lone wolf because she voted for me right after I voted for Gil the second time.

LMP has slide down my suspicions list for now

Hopefully the Seer can make some good guesses and help us out a bit. The bear is going to be difficult to find without it.

littlemanpoet

08-19-2005, 01:00 PM

Thanks, Nonna, I think. :p

By the by, SPM has convinced me of your innocence. Thanks for the words of semi-confidence.

Gurthang

08-19-2005, 01:13 PM

LMP, I don't know if that was all true or not, but either way it was pretty funny! :D I got this great mental image of you jumping around all mad and swearing and throwing things. That was great. :D (BTW, if I think you are the cobbler, which I still kinda do, I wouldn't vote for you; I'd just ignore everying you said :p )

I think I'll go read Durelin's posts, I don't really have anybody I'm extremely suspicious of right now.

littlemanpoet

08-19-2005, 01:20 PM

...if I think you are the cobbler, which I still kinda do, I wouldn't vote for you; I'd just ignore everying you said.

Better yet, just ignore EVERYTHING I've said. That way you won't get confused by misreading any of my words.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-19-2005, 01:59 PM

Take a deeeep breath, lmp. Frustrating when people think that you're something you're not, isn't it?

Our feline Durelin is confusing me (not probably in a cobblerish way, though). First I thought that she was a gifted, then I realized that she could be a werecreature and now she just seems fairly innocent to me. However, she has done some pretty weird things on these days. Her votes have been lone votes for people whom I'm hardly suspicious at all (as if that was any criterion but...) and her list about who are the wolves and who are gifteds was...err, interesting. But that doesn't necessarily mean anythinig.

I'm way too tired to think anything useful to say right now so I'm off to bed.

The Saucepan Man

08-19-2005, 02:28 PM

It's a shame that it was the wolf that killed Alcarillo because his death hardly leaves us any tracks to follow.I presume that you mean arcticstorm. But that's rather a strange thing to say, isn't it? Not only is it stating the obvious - it's a shame when any innocent dies and moreso a Gifted - but we all knew that it was pretty likely to happen and we all knew that his death would leave few tracks because he declared himself the Shirriff fairly early on yester-Day.

With each post you make, dancing spawn, my hopes are raised that you may dispel my dounbts over you. And with each post you disappoint. You say very little to actually help us in our hunt for the lycanthropes. All that you have done today, other than mildly defend yourself and make assertions of the obvious, is agree with most others that LMP may well be the Cobbler. Can't you just tell us which way you are thinking with regard to the beasts? But now you have retired to bed without having done so. :(

It is also unlikely they would not vote for their fellow at least once.Given that the two Wolves that we have killed only voted twice between them, I would disagree. Also, the voting has been quite tight throughout most of each of the preceeding Days. I wouldn't be surprised if the remaining Wolf has never voted for a fellow Wolf. Once at most. Which points towards the bottom six on your list.

I also note that LMP and Durelin have not voted for a wolf, and I have supsected both of them before. Neither has Laitaine. Why did you not mention her?

Why is there so little suspicion of Laitaine? Only SamwiseGamgee and I have expressed any serious doubts about her, although Menel gibbered vaguely about her. Am I missing something here? She is the only Villager who has voted suspiciously on every Day. Go on. Just look at her votes.

Of the three that I just named 'Slightly suspect', I am only slightly suspect because I have not suspected them before this. I'd be interested in hearing some more from them.You want to hear more from me? Really? I would have thought that I have said more than enough already. Well, OK then. I am innocent. You should have figured out why by now.

I too was amused by LMP's rant. But it only serves to encourage my growing conviction that he is the Cobbler (I can hear his exasperated (but non-Wolvish) howl right now :D ). It's less the behaviour of a Bear, but it could be a double bluff. Anyhow, we should not vote for him today.

Right now, I am inclined to vote for either Laitaine or dancing spawn.

Nonnacedak

08-19-2005, 02:49 PM

Why is there so little suspicion of Laitaine? Only SamwiseGamgee and I have expressed any serious doubts about her, although Menel gibbered vaguely about her.

I believe I have put Laitaine at the top of my suspect list. Im sure you just missed my measly little post but I just wanted to reaffirm that I believe Laitaine to be the last wolf.

Gurthang

08-19-2005, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by The Saucepan Man

I also note that LMP and Durelin have not voted for a wolf, and I have supsected both of them before.

Neither has Laitaine. Why did you not mention her?

I didn't mention her because the statement was meant to include those I have suspected before, and I have not suspected her. I don't recall anything that I've seen her do that has made me suspicious.

LMP, thanks for pointing out my bad spelling. :rolleyes:

Saucepan, you make a good point about the two lynched wolves only voting once each. I had noticed that, but hadn't thought too much into it. Which makes me laugh, because the only person the wolves have voted for has been me.

Nonnacedak

08-19-2005, 04:08 PM

I was looking through Liataine's posts and I found this suspicious. Its from day 1

Friends, the day is growing short and votes have flown around
Yet I’ve not seen a single person to be guilty-found.
True, Mithalwen’s accusations are somewhat strange to see,
But she had little time to post and must speak her mind quickly

She accuses then defends Mith in this statement. That is definatly something a wolf would do.

She also voted for Alcarillo in that same post who died I believe that first night. I have named my other suspicions of her in my past posts.

Im pretty much for sure voting for her but I will wait out and see what she says in her defense.

The Saucepan Man

08-19-2005, 05:28 PM

I believe I have put Laitaine at the top of my suspect list. Im sure you just missed my measly little post but I just wanted to reaffirm that I believe Laitaine to be the last wolf.I'm sorry for doing you a disservice, Nonnacedak. I was in a hurry when I posted before. I had noted your suspicion of Laitaine. I just neglected to include mention of you in my haste.

I didn't mention her because the statement was meant to include those I have suspected before, and I have not suspected her. I don't recall anything that I've seen her do that has made me suspicious.Then please look back at her posts and, in particular, when and how she has voted.

She accuses then defends Mith in this statement. That is definatly something a wolf would do.Indeed. It is one of the reasons that I suspect her strongly. Take a look at these snippets too:

It seems that there’s precious little proof to go on for today,
The only strangeness I observe is Gil’s vague-speaking way.
Of course, I too thought Alcarillo’s quietness was strange
But I was wrong on that account, so can Gil be deranged?

So far, the only people I've seen act suspiciously:
Gil-galad and Non, both too quiet and very vague too me.

Gil has written such a lack, it's really hard to know
And Non has seemed to bent on telling us that he's no foe.
Out of the two, Gil just seems a rather bumbling fool

(no offense)Notice the similarity? On each occasion, she makes mention of a Wolf's suspicious behaviour but then seeks to dismiss it.

SamwiseGamgee

08-19-2005, 05:33 PM

Some interesting discussion being had there, fellows of Hamlet. Whilst being most amused indeed by lmp's crazy rant, I couldn't help but keep my suspicions up.

Originally posted by The Saucepan Man
True, although it is more likely, in my view, that the Wolves will have behaved in different ways to avoid becoming conspicuous through similar patterns of behaviour.

But SpM, I can't help but think that maybe now lmp is trying a ridiculous double bluff. Now, having said that, I don't think him the wolf, but nonetheless I wonder if there's potential for him trying some elaborate scheme to escape wrath by being a bear, copying a wolf but us all thinking that no one would be so stupid! I don't know. Anyway, I won't be voting for lmp today, my concentration lies on the wolf. I've pretty much decided how I'll vote, but shall refrain for consideration.

Oh, and as a quick p.s. while I remember:

Originally posted by none other than myself
I'm becoming more and more sure that Gil is calling our bluff. I suspected him yesterday and having read his posts today, and especially #237, I'm pretty convinced that he's up to something. But what? is it cobbler, bear or audacious werewolf? Who knows. Also, Enca voted for him yesterday. Now, sure, I hear you groan that that's just too predictable and nobody'd be so stupid- but i just can't help wonder if it's one of those dangerous dances on the knife-edge of stupidity and brilliance.

That'll be on the side of stupidity, then. ;) We did well, guys. :)

SamwiseGamgee

08-19-2005, 05:56 PM

Well I just realised that last quote was because at the time I suspected Gil of beariness. :rolleyes: That's what I get for trying to be smart, eh? :p

Anyway, after some reinvestigation and note-studying I have decided that I shall vote. I'd just like to say, before I do though, that there is good reason for my early vote: I'm up in 7 hours for work, and thereafter won't be able to get online. I toyed with the idea of not voting, but I feel confident that this won't be a wated vote. *crosses fingers!*

++ Laitaine

Boromir88

08-19-2005, 06:04 PM

Took a little longer then I expected, but I'm back and will read through the posts and put in whatever I have to offer. :)

Meneltarmacil

08-19-2005, 06:07 PM

I have not made my minde up aboute LMP yet. He mighte be a Beaste/Cobbler, or he mighte be innocente. I wille have to looke into it some more. In the meantime, thoughe, I wille probably vote for Laitaine in an houre or two, due to her suspiciouse voting patterne and her tendency to conveniently droppe Wolves from her suspicions.

Boromir88

08-19-2005, 06:37 PM

Hmm, well reading though everything Laitane has grown up deeply in suspicion. As the last wolf? It's definitely growing in my mind.

LMP, has sort of slipped back. I don't know, I guess I'm buying his comments on not making sense, and just don't pay attention to him anymore. I still have suspicions on him, but he's nowhere near the top.

I think there should be no consideration by the Seer to step forward as of right now. Especially with still two killers on the loose. Though, it'd be nice to go down to one after tonight.

I have a possible way to find the bear, but since we are intent on catching the wolf tonight, I'll hold off.

I have no idea what to make of dancing spawn. She does defend herself, but it's ever so slight and as Saucepan says she's added very little.

Top wolves:
1. Laitane
2. dancing spawn.

Gurthang

08-19-2005, 06:58 PM

Well, I've read through some of Laitaine's posts, and I do see what you think is suspicious. Most of her posts seem to arouse suspicion and then cast doubt as to its credibility. Really, that provides nothing to the conversation, and only makes our heads spin. Cobblery? but I though that was LMP... :confused:

I don't really have any other real suspects at the moment. So I would not be surprised if I voted for Laitaine later. I'm still watching LMP and Durelin, though. None of those three voted for a wolf the first 3 Days and they all voted differently each day. The order of suspicion probably goes: Laitaine, LMP, Durelin. Yet they are all pretty close in my mind.

Meneltarmacil

08-19-2005, 07:02 PM

Welle, I mighte as welle cast my vote now.

++Laitaine

is ye moste likely suspecte, for reasons I have stated earlier. Plus, a wolfe pelte woulde looke goode in my Greate Hall...

Durelin

08-19-2005, 07:02 PM

It seems it's between Laitaine and Dancing Spawn. In my mind, they are not the only possibilities (I don't feel comfortable trusting anyone, even with only one wolf and the bear left) But, for reasons stated mainly by LMP and Saucepan Man (surprise, surprise)...

++Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

I'm not getting up early tomorrow, sorry. Take that as you will.

cross-posted with Meneltmarcil. Thanks Menel for making my vote look strategic. :rolleyes: :p

The Saucepan Man

08-19-2005, 07:33 PM

Well, it seems as though I have started a Laitaine bandwaggon here. Ulp! That always worries me ...

The votes currently stand at:

Laitaine - 2
Dancing spawn - 2

I still don't know which one of those to vote for. Laitaine is the slightly more suspicious in my eyes. But it could be either. Which way will our Cobbler vote, I wonder, if the votes stay evenly divided between them (if he or she has not voted already)?

I have not discounted the possibilty of Lalaith and Durelin. Perhaps they will not be in contention today. If so, I doubt that I will vote for one of them. In which case I shall have to choose between Laitaine and dancing spawn. I have time. I will wait to see how things pan out.

Boromir88

08-19-2005, 08:00 PM

I am not totally convinced on dancing spawn, and do not wish to jump into a hasty decision that contributed to Captain's lynching. Right now Laitane looks more suspicious, but I too will wait it out for a while. Hopefully things get cleared up better, but doesn't look like it.

Boromir88

08-19-2005, 08:57 PM

I've debated long enough, knowing I won't get up in time to vote (especially since it's Saturday), I'll have to cast my decision now.

As I said above I'm less inclined to vote for dancing spawn. She's been ever so slightly growing in suspicion, but it's a move I can't make yet, just seems too risky at this time...

++Laitane

Gurthang

08-19-2005, 11:23 PM

After viewing a lot of posts today, I've become more suspect of some and less of others. It's a tough decision. I think most of us are satisfied, for now, with LMP, and it looks like the choice is between dancing spawn and Laitaine. (By the way, Boromir, Laitaine has that second 'i' in it. ;) ) Between those two, I am hardly suspicious of dancing spawn, so I feel that I must vote for:

++Laitaine

Votes so far:

dancing spawn - 2
Laitaine - 4

With five left to vote, it can still go anywhere.

Nonnacedak

08-20-2005, 12:12 AM

Well its about that time where I must head back to my humble shack and hit the hay stack and that means I must vote.

I still havent heard any kind of defense from Laitaine so that even strengthens my suspicions.

++Laitaine

Hopefully we find out much in the morning to come!

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-20-2005, 02:05 AM

I presume that you mean arcticstorm. Oh, that's right, arcticstorm, of course.

But that's rather a strange thing to say, isn't it? No, it isn't, thank you very much. It would have left us much more clues if the bear had killed arcticstorm and the remaining wolf had picked another target.

Can't you just tell us which way you are thinking with regard to the beasts? But now you have retired to bed without having done so. Yes, I can tell you but not in the middle of the night. ;)

The living are:

Boromir88, I believe he's innocent. His voting hasn't been suspicious at all. I also had the theory somewhere back on the first pages that Gurthang, Boromir, mormegil & Alcarillo are innocent and I still believe that that's the case.
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant, I know for a fact that she's innocent.
Durelin, As I said earlier, she has done some pretty weird things earlier but as I read her posts over and over again I'm inclined to believe that she's innocent.
Gurthang, I don't think he has acted suspiciously. At least if we look at his votes. He keeps track of villagers' behaviour and keeps things nicely in order. I think a werecreature (or the cobbler) would try to confuse us more.
Laitaine, Many of you suspect her and your reasoning sounds very plausible. Arcticstorm suspected her to be the bear very early on. She votes always for a person who doesn't previously have any votes. I think it's little odd to throw your votes around like that.
Lalaith, I can't tell much of her votes but I think her suspicions of Boromir and Gurthang were odd. Also, it seemed to me that she's trying to avoid the spotlight by shifting some blame on me (page 6). But that might be nothing.
littlemanpoet, I still think that something's not right with him for reasons I've said a few times before. His rant was cute, though.
Meneltarmacil, Can't say that I'd be any suspicious of him. He has voted twice for a known wolf at a very early stage.
Nonnacedak, I think he has acted quite suspiciously by trying to emphasize his innocence but funny enough, I'm starting to believe him.
SamwiseGamgee, He has managed to fly under my radar but closer examination of his behaviour reveals nothing wolvish or bearish in him.
The Saucepan Man, he is either an innocent or the bear. Out of all people he'd be able to play the bear so boldly. He acts as suspiciously as the next guy but just because he points that out himself it doesn't make him guilty? See how his suspects have a tendency to end up lynched? He's very persuasive though he doesn't directly tell us how to vote. If he's the bear, he is extremely dangerous.

There. That's what I think of my fellow villagers. Almost anyone can still be the bear. And now I have to leave you for a while (still not finished with the biggest glass vase ever). I'll be back.

Lalaith

08-20-2005, 02:57 AM

One problem I have with coming to a decision is that I really have no idea who the Seer is. I have a list of about four who I've worked out almost certainly *aren't* the Seer, a couple of unlikelies, but other than that, who knows. I'm glad s/he's still around, though.

I hadn't really thought about Laitaine as a suspect too much, but her insistence on Nonnacedak being a wolf, in the face of all evidence to the contrary, is really odd. (If Spawn is right about there being no rules for were-ish behaviour, then I suppose it is just conceivable that Nonna is a wolf. But I would be a very suprised soothsayer indeed if it were the case.)

Lalaith

08-20-2005, 03:04 AM

One thing that has just occurred to me is that Laitaine has said she won't be here today. I feel slightly uncomfortable about lynching someone in their absence.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-20-2005, 03:54 AM

This is my last chance to speak toDay and I'm in a terrible hurry.

We all seem to agree that we want the last wolf dead before the bear or cobbler. In that case I think that Laitaine is a very good choice.

However, if you decide to lynch me I suggest a double lyncing. Take someone with me cause otherwise you still have two werebeasts and the cobbler.

One thing that has just occurred to me is that Laitaine has said she won't be here today. I feel slightly uncomfortable about lynching someone in their absence. I'm glad that didn't stop us lynching Mith on the first day.

++Laitaine

Lalaith

08-20-2005, 04:37 AM

Ok, I'll spell out what I was trying to hint at in my posts above and why I'm unhappy about lynching absentees.

The Seer has kept very quiet so far. If our lynch victim is the Seer, s/he can at least have a chance to jump in before the end and tell us what s/he knows before death, but if s/he isn't even there, then we will be none the wiser.
Now, I don't particularly think Laitaine is the Seer. But then again I have no idea who the Seer is.

The Saucepan Man

08-20-2005, 05:16 AM

I had rather hoped that things would be clearer when I woke up. Unfortunately, they are not. Well, dancing spawn has given us the benefit of her thoughts, at least. But they do not dispel my doubts over her.

Still, Laitaine is now going to be lynched whichever way I vote. Unfortunately, we cannot read too much into dancing spawn's vote to seal Laitaine's fate, because it came down to either her or Laitaine.

I had been toying with the idea of a double lynching. Admittedly, it could potentially have resulted in the death of four innocents before Day 5 begins, rather than three, but it would eliminate two strong suspects. In any event, a double lynching is now impossible.

The Seer has kept very quiet so far. If our lynch victim is the Seer, s/he can at least have a chance to jump in before the end and tell us what s/he knows before death, but if s/he isn't even there, then we will be none the wiser. A fair point, and one which I had in mind too. I think that it is very unlikely that she's the Seer, but I'm willing to wait until nearer the deadline to see if she does turn up.

littlemanpoet

08-20-2005, 05:19 AM

After you have "offed" me tomorrow, or whomever, please take a look at how Menelmacar always seems to see which way the wind blows, then make others' reasoning his own in his posts. Maybe once you see after my future lynching that I am indeed innocent, you might just bag this guy as a werebeast in the nick of time.

I shall be out of the village for much of the upcoming Night and Day, only returning soon enough to cast a vote late in the Day; since I'm sure, being as suspicious as I am, the werebeasts will conveniently (to them) let me live.

The Saucepan Man

08-20-2005, 05:29 AM

After you have "offed" me tomorrow, or whomever, please take a look at how Menelmacar always seems to see which way the wind blows, then make others' reasoning his own in his posts. Maybe once you see after my future lynching that I am indeed innocent, you might just bag this guy as a werebeast in the nick of time.It has not gone unnoticed, LMP, by me at least. You are still on my "Bear watch" list, but as you become more Cobbleresque (great word Boromir :D ), Meneltarmacil is becoming a strong contender.

The Saucepan Man

08-20-2005, 05:54 AM

Well, it doesn't look like Laitaine's coming back. Let's hope that she is the lone Wolf.

++ LAITAINE

Lalaith

08-20-2005, 05:57 AM

I'm just not convinced enough about Laitaine, despite the weird stuff about Nonnacedak. I'm inclined to not vote at all, frankly, but that's against my principles. But I don't want the risk of a double lynching either, with two deaths a night already(possibly) I'm just not convinced that two deaths a day is a good idea.
So as it's kind of inevitable already, I'll go for:
++Laitaine

Sorry, my dear rhymster, if we're sniffing up the wrong tree.

Lalaith

08-20-2005, 05:59 AM

My computer is slow, I didn't see SpM's vote above before I posted. Just for the record.

Shelob

08-20-2005, 06:05 AM

The sun's dying light swept over the towns central polygon
It was settled, the minstrel would play her own funeral song.
The villagers went to where poor Laitaine sat alone,
In the shadows none saw how long her face had grown.
"We're sorry" one said, with the noose in his hands,
"But we're at a loss, you know how it stands."
She said it was alright, that there was no need,
She understood their plight, for her life wouldn't plead.
They lead her then to the gallows with care,
For one never knew with the wolves-of-the-were.
With the noose around her neck, the sun sank ever more,
The seeming peaceful Laitaine let out a fearful roar.
Her slowly growing face exploded with out cause
Her fingers dropped her recorder, it's too hard to play with claws.
As one the remaining villagers leapt back in fear and shock,
But for a moment, before they leapt at her with tooth, nail and rock.
The fight lasted but a little while, what with the odds and all.
The villagers returned to homes, fearing no wolfish call
But by her body a villager stood, seeming sad, with head hung
The bear remains and changes slow for

NIGHT 5 HAS NOW BEGUN.

Living:

Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Gurthang
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3
Gil-Galad (Werewolf) - Lynch'ed!! on DAY 3
Arcticstorm (Sherriff) - Touched by a ten foot pole on NIGHT 4
Wilwarin (Villager) - This fine specimen displayed on NIGHT 4
Laitaine (Werewolf) - Boo hoo hoo, Wolves are through. DAY 4

Oddwen

08-21-2005, 06:01 AM

The Villagers awoke with a new spring in their step - no more Werewolves! Now there need only be one kill in the NIGHT. Wait a minute...'kill'...what did that remind them of?

Oh yeah. One of their number was missing.

After making a list and checking it twice, they went off to the perpetually nice Soothsayer's house. They hardly bothered to knock, but went inside.

Alas, Lalaith lay there on the floor, her head flattened by the paw of the bear. Beside her was a scribbled note, reading "Sooth! Sooth! Sooth! Soooooooth!"

Nobody knew what it meant. Ah, wait a minute...in her closet, there was a new suit. Of course, she was talking about a new suit! With that cleared up and their demeanor as cheerful as it could be under the circumstances, they started the talks for the DAY.

Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Gurthang
littlemanpoet
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3
Gil-Galad (Werewolf) - Lynch'ed!! on DAY 3
Arcticstorm (Sherriff) - Touched by a ten foot pole on NIGHT 4
Wilwarin (Villager) - This fine specimen displayed on NIGHT 4
Laitaine (Werewolf) - Boo hoo hoo, Wolves are through. DAY 4
Lalaith (Villager) - Verily and forsooth, she was crushed on NIGHT 5

It's now DAY 5. Y'all know what to do.

Gurthang

08-21-2005, 07:56 AM

Poor, Lalaith. I can honestly say she her soothing was always calming to me. I wonder why this beast would choose her? Alas the time to mourn is not now, but will come soon.

Well, congratulations to everyone on getting all three wolves in just four days. We only lost one innocent to our own hands in the process, giving us a 75% accuracy! Let's keep up the good work, and we can get this bear in a Day or two.

If our Seer has found our bear, I suggest stepping out so we can finish this today. If you haven't, well, then don't.

Now, we can concentrate on catching that bear. So far we have had mixed feelings about who to go after, but now we all have one objective.

I'm still leaning towards LMP being the cobbler, which means I have no idea what to do with him now. I was suspicious of Durelin on day one, so I think I will go back again and see if I can find anything in her posts.

P.S. After Saucepan shows us his newest voting list, I'll see about making another post including all of them.

The Saucepan Man

08-21-2005, 08:23 AM

Alas poor Lalaith! I suspected her, Villagers.

In fact, I had her pinned for either a Wolf or the Seer. The latter being the reason why I never voted for her, or suggested others should, despite her being one of my chief suspects. It seems the Bear may have thought that she was the Seer too, which is interesting.

I am not sure that yester-Day's voting will tell us much concerning the Bear. But here it is in any event:

1. LMP for dancing spawn (dancing spawn - 1)
2. SamwiseGamgee for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 1; Laitaine - 1)
3. Meneltarmacil for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 1; Laitaine - 2)
4. Durelin for dancing spawn (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 2)
5. Boromir88 for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 3)
6. Gurthang for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 4)
7. Nonnacedak for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 5)
8. Dancing spawn for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 6)
9. SpM for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 7)
10. Lalaith for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 8)

Unfortunately, voting patterns tell us much less about the Bear than they did about the Wolves. But they may help, so it is worth looking at them.

I really do not have a lot to go on as for as the Bear is concerned at the moment. LMP remains my chief suspect, although he may well also be the Cobbler. And, if he is not the Bear, then what he said at the end of yester-Day concerning Meneltarmacil makes some sense.

I will not be around now for a few hours, but will return later to share what further thoughts I may have.

PS I wonder what the Cobbler will do now? Now his/her team has lost, will s/he throw his/her lot in with the Villagers or the Bear? Or simply give up contributing ...? :p :D

Gurthang

08-21-2005, 08:39 AM

Originally posted by Saucepan Man
I wonder what the Cobbler will do now? Now his/her team has lost, will s/he throw his/her lot in with the Villagers or the Bear? Or simply give up contributing ...?
Or try to force us into a multiple lynch the last day so nobody wins. In which case it would be better to be rid of him.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-21-2005, 08:40 AM

I'm still leaning towards LMP being the cobbler, which means I have no idea what to do with him now. Yeah, it isn't the cobbler's duty to help the bear win, now is it?

It seems the Bear may have thought that she was the Seer too Interesting thought. Well, it's time for me to go back to read Lalaith's posts. I'll post more in a few hours.

SamwiseGamgee

08-21-2005, 09:58 AM

So hands up if you're not the werebear and thougfht it'd be a great idea! :rolleyes: :p But seriously, we did well, fellow villagers, and now we know there is but one evil being left in our midst. However, the hard work is just beginning. This Beorning isn't going to be easy to find. I have my suspicions, but the more I think over the subject the more I realise that perhaps those I suspect least of all and have even come to trust may be the bear. *gasp* But anyway, whatever we've been doing thus far it's worked pretty well, I would say, and so we should keep at it. I'll post later this evening/night when I've looked back over the thread. I leave you with my thought for the day: Trust nobody. :D

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-21-2005, 10:25 AM

There are basically two people who seem bearish to me.

I'm willing to believe that SpM is on our side though I suspected him before. I just can't understad why he isn't dead yet. There aren't many who suspect him (at least in public) and he's been very helpful in the werecreature hunting. He also has a habit of making strong cases against people finding quotes, good reasons and searching every inch. The odd thing is that then he steps back and says that it might be that way, who knows, and lets us start voting.

Anyway, my first bear candidate is Meneltarmacil.
I wonder why ye Beare killed Enca? She was ye quieteste person in ye village. It wouldn't make a lot of sense to try and silence someone who's barely spoken. That was a bit odd statement (Samwise noticed that, too). I believe it likely that ye Beare was among those who voted for ye Captain yesterDaye. Ye Beare was probably one of ye people who caste a lot of suspicione on him too, as it would drawe it awaye from him/herselfe. I muste be off soone, but after I returne in a fewe hours, I shall reviewe postes by those such as Boromir88... I admit that sounds reasonable. However, he voted for CoD himself but because he brought this up, it makes him look innocent. A wise bearish tactic?

Menel has voted all three wolves + CoD, so he's been mostly helpful but if it's really the bear's interest to get rid of the wolves, Menel would have done great job as one.

Then there's lmp. I'm a bit afraid to make a case against him because he might throw custard pies at me or have a tantrum but I'm going to say this nevertheless. Look at Arcticstorm's post here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=406701&postcount=194) and how lmp answered (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=406779&postcount=224) it. I think it seems a bit over-selfdefensive considering that arcticstorm said that it might just be an attempt to frame lmp up. Lalaith seemed suspicious of lmp as well and now she's dead, too. Wether lmp isn't the bear and this is a frame-up or then he's indeed the last werebeast and he's kind of double bluffing.

This isn't particularly bearish but take a look at lmp's post #230 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=406820&postcount=230) . It seems that he's practically saying that Boromir is a gifted. Wouldn't a regular innocent want to keep it to himself if he thinks he's found a gifted?

I think lmp's post #275 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=407092&postcount=275) is just really weird. Lalaith had some interesting points in her post #290 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=407146&postcount=290) . I'm more inclined to think that lmp's the cobbler than a bear but who knows. At least his voting seems cobblerish.

Ok, that was confusing but so are my thoughts. I'll be back later.

Nonnacedak

08-21-2005, 11:13 AM

Hurray the wolfs are no more! We just need the bear and we will finally be able to sleep well at night. Im about as lost as the rest of you on this one. Hopefully we wont lynch the seer tonight so he/she can have a bearish dream.

Your thoughts on Meneltarmacil are interesting. Its to bad we cant go off voting patterns anymore. That really helped a lot.

Ill have to scour the posts to come up with any sort of help.

Great job everyone on the wolf massacre. :D

The Saucepan Man

08-21-2005, 11:47 AM

A few further thoughts.

(NB My use of masculine pronouns should not be taken as indicating that I believe the Bear to be male - he or she could be either gender.)

First, a question. How quickly would the Beorning want to kill off the Werewolves? While they are alive, he benefits from the two kills per Night. There is a chance that they will kill him, but he knows that they will not be wanting to do so because they want two kills per Night and they win if he is the only other Villager left standing with them at the end. The risk the Bear takes by keeping them alive is that they will mistakenly kill him, believing him to be innocent (or Gifted).

I am not sure of the answer, but I do wonder whether the Beorning will have wanted the Wolves killed off quite so quickly. It seems to me that he would at least have wanted the last Wolf to remain alive a little longer.

Now, we could not be sure that Laitaine was the last Wolf, but she was certainly a prime candidate. Only LMP and Durelin voted for dancing spawn. Problem is, dancing spawn was quite high on most people's suspicion lists too. One of them is probably the Cobbler. That doesn't necessarily mean that the other is the Bear, but it's worth "bearing" in mind.

This isn't particularly bearish but take a look at lmp's post #230 . It seems that he's practically saying that Boromir is a gifted. Wouldn't a regular innocent want to keep it to himself if he thinks he's found a gifted?But wouldn't the Bear simply have killed Boromir88 himself last night if he thought him Gifted? LMP's statement seems more likely to have been a Cobbleresque signal to the Wolves.

But let's face it, the Bear could be just about anyone. By my calculation, we have about four Days maximum (including today) to find him. Otherwise he wins. That doesn't give us a lot of wiggle room.

Boromir88 said yester-Day that he had an idea to find the Bear. I hope that we will hear from him soon.

Durelin

08-21-2005, 12:02 PM

Notice that pretty much everyone that The Saucepan Man has been *suspicious* of is dead.

I say that Saucepan Man is the bear.

Or it's someone else.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-21-2005, 12:14 PM

Durelin, yes, I noticed that, too. See how his [SpM] suspects have a tendency to end up lynched? He's very persuasive though he doesn't directly tell us how to vote. If he's the bear, he is extremely dangerous.
I say that Saucepan Man is the bear.

Or it's someone else. I agree. Except, you can insert any name over SpM's and the sentence still sounds perfectly plausible.

But wouldn't the Bear simply have killed Boromir88 himself last night if he thought him Gifted? Maybe, unless he didn't really mean that or he thought the wolves would take care of Boromir. As I said, it seems more of an action of the cobbler than bear, though.

Meneltarmacil

08-21-2005, 12:30 PM

It wille be harde finding ye Beare, but I can telle you now that I am not a Beare no matter what thou thinkest of me. I am merely another innocente like thee. However, I cannot prove my innocence to thee so my statemente helpeth little. But as for Bearish-looking people, I suggeste we looke at Boromir88. He hath been somewhat involved in ye discussiones, but doth not poste as often as ye others here. Perhaps he trieth to stay under ye radar whilst posting juste enoughe to not be extremely suspecte. He putteth in critical votes for Wolves, but as dancing spawn pointeth oute, this maye be in ye Beare's beste intereste.

Gurthang

08-21-2005, 12:49 PM

Durelin, I've read through most of your posts. I can't find much 'bearish' activity, but I am not quite sure what to look for. I just have some strange uneasy feeling about you.

Some of you are now leaning on Saucepan Man a little. I have not been suspicious of him before, but that is because he hasn't done anything that I would call suspicious. But, of course, what better place for a bear to hide than right in the forefront of the attack at the wolves. Still, if he were the bear, I think he would have misled us and left the wolves alive a little longer, so he would continue the two kills per night.

Maybe we should take a look at Nonnacedak again. I was satisified with his innocence a while ago, but he really seems to do a good job of staying hidden. He posts little, and seems too worried about people implicating him.

Boromir, you said you had a way to find this bear. I am really at a loss about finding it, so I would love to hear your plan.

Boromir88

08-21-2005, 01:07 PM

Me gifted? That's kind of funny.

Anyway, my plan for finding the bear was the bear is probably in the majority each time (which means a lot of people could be suspected), but I'll get all the voters together and see who's name keeps reappearing.

So, I think it's true that the bear doesn't care who gets lynched as long as it's not himself. I don't buy the strategy of the bear wanting to keep the wolves alive, first off, s/he doesn't know who the wolves are, and two it's not him/her that's getting lynched. I just don't think the bear would benefit greatly from the wolves being around.

I mean we have to think that yes the bear benefits from another kill a night with the wolves around, but that other kill could he/she could be the one that's knocked off. Therefor, the bear might want to get rid of the wolves as fast as possible, and again, doesn't matter who gets lynched (wolf or not) as long as it's not him/herself.

Since we've had such a hard time finding the bear at this point, I think the bear is hiding amongst everyone. Hiding in the majority, because right now it appears as anyone could be the bear, and it's hard to pick out one person. But, let's attempt to anyway.

So, Day 1 for Mithalwen (wolf)...

1. Captain of Despair
2. Samwise Gamgee
3. Meneltarmacil
4. Boromir88
5. Alcarillo
6. Nonnacedak
7. Arcticstorm
8. Dancing spawn
9. Saucepan
10. Firefoot.

Day 2, for Captain of Despair (Ranger)...

1. Meneltarmacil
2. Samwise Gamgee
3. Boromir88
4. arcticstorm
5. Dancing Spawn
6. Saucepan
7. Lalaith

Day 3, for Gil-galad (wolf)...

1. Meneltarmacil
2. Boromir88
3. Nonnacedak
4. Gurthang
5. Lalaith
6. Samwise

Day 4, for Laitane (wolf)...

1. SamwiseGamgee
2. Meneltarmacil
3. Boromir88
4. Gurthang
5. Nonnacedak
6. Dancing Spawn
7. Saucepan
8. Lalaith

The ones in bold are the ones that voted in the majority atleast 3 of the 4 times. I believe the bear is one that is in the majority. The problem is only one of these is the bear, the others are innocents. So, here's my further thoughts.

Boromir88- Me? Yes, I vote a lot in the majority, but bear, I can say I'm not.

SamwiseGamgee- Doesn't say too much. Seems to go along with whatever people have to say, doesn't put in much of her (correct?) own imput. Mildy suspicious.

Dancing Spawn- still not convinced one her. She recently has offered some useful information, told us some thoughts on people, not too suspicious, but again mildly.

Meneltarmacil- He does often vote and looking back through some of his posts he's grown in suspicion. Ok so here it is on Menel...

Both mormegil and lalaith voted for Meneltarmacil on Day 1. Both are now dead. Set up? Perhaps Menel thought mormegil was the Seer, as he was the first one to vote for Menel, then decided to whack him that night hoping he found the Seer. Lalaith is now gone I must admit this points to Meneltarmacil.

Also on Day 2 (i'll search for the post number) when deliberations on Captain and Gil-galad began he chimed in for the Seer to dream of whichever one did not die in the lynching. Trying to get the Seer drawn away from you Menel?

He's more than mildly suspicious, but I'm afraid at this stage it's hard to tell, Menel could be the bear, or could just be an innocent, as could everyone.

Finally Saucepan- To be honest, there's nothing I see in Saucepan to suggest that he is the bear. Though I must suppose some suspicion towards him, as no one can be trusted. But, quite frankly, I'm not too concerned about Saucepan being the bear.

Just doesn't fit, Sauce has been vocal, and attempting to help. The bear is extremely hard to locate right now which gets me thinking One, s/he's hiding in the majority, two s/he's quiet and low key.

So that points to...(and in order)

1. Meneltarmacil
2. Samwise
3. Dancing Spawn

Note: This is just my reasoning, please by all means don't think I'm right, decide for yourself. It's just a possibility I am suggesting we all consider.

Boromir88

08-21-2005, 01:14 PM

I noticed Nonnacedak has also voted in the majority 3 out of 4 times, so my thoughts on her...

Another one like Samwise, doesn't say a whole lot, so this gets mildly suspicious, but right now I'm not too worried about Nonna either so...

1. Menel
2. Samwise
3. Dancing Spawn
4. Nonnacedak

Meneltarmacil

08-21-2005, 01:30 PM

Both mormegil and lalaith voted for Meneltarmacil on Day 1. Both are now dead. Set up? Perhaps Menel thought mormegil was the Seer, as he was the first one to vote for Menel, then decided to whack him that night hoping he found the Seer. Lalaith is now gone I must admit this points to Meneltarmacil.

mormegil was killed by ye Wolves, not ye Beare, so if I was ye Beare (whiche I'm not), I didn't kille him.

Trying to get the Seer drawn away from you Menel?

No, juste trying to finde ye Beare. I am innocente, and if ye Seere did investigate me, he/she woulde see it thus. I was merely advising him/her to dreame about suspiciouse people.

I vote early because I am advised in my householde to "leave ye village hexagon" at a certaine houre and wishe to get my vote in before that houre. Nothing wrong withe that, is there?

Thou appearest to be in ye majority a lot by thine owne admissione, Boromir. By thine owne reasoning, thou lookest Bearish. Defende thyself, if thou canst.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-21-2005, 01:44 PM

Thanks, Boromir, that was informative. I believe the bear is one that is in the majority. I agree that the bear might have voted with the majority once, twice or even three times, but four? Voting majorities of a day have always been under strict observation in case there are bandwagoning wolves. Why would a bear want to risk his/her skin by voting suspiciously? I think it would be clever to vote a few times for someone who has almost enough potential to get lynched but avoids the noose at the end of the day.

Boromir88

08-21-2005, 01:58 PM

Mormegil was killed by wolves? I didn't see this, all I read from the post of who was killed at night was he was blown up. If this is the case, then my idea isn't as strong.

As for the defense of myself Meneltarmacil. One, you haven't offered a lot on why you are suspicious of me. But, what you have offered, I will say...

He hath been somewhat involved in ye discussiones, but doth not poste as often as ye others here. Perhaps he trieth to stay under ye radar whilst posting juste enoughe to not be extremely suspecte.

I don't post a lot simply because I don't have a lot of oppurtunities to post. I can't post in the morning. Then I can't post again til noon, and that's usually only enough time for one post. Then I don't post until after work and after I've eaten. So, that explains why I don't post a lot. I don't think one should base their suspicions on that, but rather what people have to say in their posts.

For example, you don't seem to say a whole lot in your posts. As Saucepan has said it's not a matter of how much you post, but what you say in your posts. Unless I'm wrong, I haven't seen you say a whole lot except what's been going on, same case with Samwise, hence my suspicion of both of you.

Also, you and me are in the same boat for voting early. I don't think we should judge by the time someone votes, but who they've voted for. Time is very tricky as I vote usually around 11 when the news comes on and I'm ready to go to bed, as I do have to get up for work.

If anything, I would think the bear would vote late to try to achieve a double lynching.

As I've said Menel, and to others, my ideas may not be right. And my list doesn't include everyone, therefor, for the ones that don't vote in the majority, here's what I have to say on them. Though I don't think too much of these people being the bear.

Durelin- As I said, she did defend Captain of Despair. I would think a bear would be one in the voting for Captain, as only the bear would know that that person wasn't the bear. Unless she wanted to keep the suspected bear alive as long as possible? As far as the group I did not include above, she is the most suspicious.

Gurthang- He's been helpful, doesn't seem to be the bear. I mean he did have a fit when it was the bear who killed the chicken.

lmp- He has drawn a lot of suspicion but I think he's just the cobbler. He is the prime canidate for the cobbler it seems, as by his own admission he draws a lot of confusion and never did he vote for a wolf I don't think.

I'm making a list just to include everyone on who the bear could be...And due to recent considerations, it has changed.

Right now tied at the top is Menel and Samwise. Menel has come up and explained himself, until I would like to hear from Samwise as she also has been looking closely suspicious.

1. Menel and Samwise-tied
3. Dancing Spawn
4. Durelin
5. Nonnacedak
6. LMP
7. Gurthang
8. Saucepan

I think that's everyone.

Meneltarmacil

08-21-2005, 02:23 PM

Mormegil was killed by wolves? I didn't see this, all I read from the post of who was killed at night was he was blown up. If this is the case, then my idea isn't as strong.

Originally posted by Oddwen, emphasis added by me:

Apparently, the Wolves had stuck firecrackers in Morm's (always the heavy sleeper) ears, and set them alight.

Nonnacedak

08-21-2005, 03:41 PM

Just to set the record straight on this Im a guy. Anyways right now every person basically has a little suspicion towards them. Thats not making things any easier. :confused:

I like what Saucepan was saying about keeping a wolf alive at the end. Right now I guess those that did not vote for Laitaine would be my prime suspects. They would be Durelin and LMP who already had a lot of suspicion on them.

The Saucepan Man

08-21-2005, 04:13 PM

Some interesting thoughts, particularly from Boromir88 and dancing spawn:

Anyway, my plan for finding the bear was the bear is probably in the majority each time ...

I agree that the bear might have voted with the majority once, twice or even three times, but four? Voting majorities of a day have always been under strict observation in case there are bandwagoning wolves. Why would a bear want to risk his/her skin by voting suspiciously? I think it would be clever to vote a few times for someone who has almost enough potential to get lynched but avoids the noose at the end of the day.

I would think a bear would be one in the voting for Captain, as only the bear would know that that person wasn't the bear. Unless she wanted to keep the suspected bear alive as long as possible?I tend to agree with dancing spawn that the Bear is unlikely to have voted with the majority on every Day. I wonder if perhaps the most instructive vote, in this regard, might be that which led to the lynching of CaptainofDespair. After all, CaptainofDespair was a suspected Bear, not a suspected Wolf. He was unlikely to have been a Wolf for his early vote for Mithalwen on Day 1.

So let's try to look at this vote from the Bear's persepctive. He knows that CaptainofDespair is not the Bear and he is probably pretty certain that he is not a Wolf. In fact, it was clear from what CaptainofDespair said before the voting started that, if he was not the Bear, he was most probably the Ranger (as indeed he was). Now, the Ranger cannot offer protection from the Bear's attacks but he can protect against the Wolves' attacks and therefore limit the Night-time exposure to one kill. So the Bear might well have wanted him kept alive. Also, with two Wolves still alive, the Bear would probably have wanted another Wolf to be lynched on that Day. In addition, CaptainofDespair was a Bear suspect and so, as Boromir88 suggested, it was perhaps in the Bear's interests that he stayed alive. Finally, the Bear knew that CaptainofDespair was probably innocent and that therefore those who voted for him might well be under suspicion the next Day.

All of that would tend to suggest that, on Day 2, the Bear would probably have voted to save CaptainofDespair and kill a Wolf. So, of those who are still alive, who did not vote for CaptainofDespair on Day 2? The following:

Durelin
Nonnacedak
LMP
Gurthang

Durelin voted for me. An unlikely vote for a Bear, because I was never under serious suspicion of being a Wolf (she voted for me as a Bear suspect) and, given the way that the discussion was going, a vote for me was unlikely to save CaptainofDespair. Generally, I feel that she has acted un-Bear-like and so don't regard her with any great suspicion.

Nonnacedak voted for a likely Wolf candidate, Gil-Galad, who was in fact a Wolf. As others have noted, he has said little and, while having an uncanny ability to spot Wolves (fellow lyncanthropes?), has added little to the Bear debate. And, again as others have noted, he has always been at pains to defend himself against any accusations.

LMP is the Cobbler. I am now convinced of that.

Gurthang, like Nonnacedak, voted for Gil-Galad on Day 2. But he has been helpful in his contributions and posted at length in a seemingly genuine effort to catch both the Wolves and the Bear. I don't really find him suspicious at the moment.

That, of course, does not excuse anyone else. It remains quite possible that the Bear did vote for CaptainofDespair on Day 2. I just think it more likely that he did not. I agree with Boromir88 that both Meneltarmacil and SamwiseGamgee look suspicious, for their frequent but largely uninformative, posts. Menel more so. I think that Samwise has offered some solid ideas and opinions on occasion. Menel has been more talkative today, but only really to defend himself and accuse Boromir88, against whom I see very little evidence, of being the Bear.

So, my two current main Bear suspects are:

Meneltarmacil and Nonnacedak.

Gurthang

08-21-2005, 04:46 PM

I too am uneasy about Nonnacedak. He did vote for a wolf everytime, but that does not make him un-Bearish. He really seems too worried about seeming innocent and has managed to fly relatively under the radar. I'm thinking about voting for him, but I still want to know what you all think, because, although I am suspicious of Non than others, I am not all that suspicious of anybody.

The Saucepan Man

08-21-2005, 04:57 PM

They would be Durelin and LMP who already had a lot of suspicion on them.Nah, it looks to me like the Bear voted for Laitaine yesterday. Durelin just doesn't seem the ursine type to me and I think that, given his absence from the proceedings to date, we can probably take it for granted that LMP's the Cobbler.

I'm thinking about voting for him, but I still want to know what you all think ...I shall probably vote for either Nonnacedak or Meneltarmacil today but, as usual, I shall probably vote near the deadline in case there are any other developments in the meantime.

SamwiseGamgee

08-21-2005, 06:01 PM

Well for the first time in this village's short history it appears I'm having some pretty stiff suspicions aimed at me. Interesting. It is in the very nature of bearishness ( :rolleyes: ) that I can no longer defend myself with regular votes for wolves. Indeed, it now appears that this is being used against me. Ho-hum. So, what defense do I have to offer, besides the fact that I'm not actually the bear? There's at least one of you who knows that, possibly two.

I guess I could call upon post #242 as a defense, where I floated the idea of lynching articstorm in an attempt to remove options from the wolves. Of course, if I were the bear I'd probably want to do that anyway, though- so who knows? :rolleyes:

At the moment I'm most suspicious of Nonnacedak and dancing spawn. My suspicions of lmp have been somewhat subdued, mainly because I reckon that he was probably the cobbler on closer inspection of the thread.

So, there you have it: my defence. Not much, but the truth is that owing to the nature of the bear there is little I can say. I'm not the bear, guys. Please believe this. Oh, and boromir88, I am also not a girl! :p

SamwiseGamgee

08-21-2005, 06:14 PM

Just realised I didn't realise why I was suspicious of who I said I was. So, an explanation:

Nonnacedak: Seems at pains to point out his own innocence, a point I first noticed in post #138. Since then (Day 2) I've been keeping a close eye on him, but I've never really suspected him enough to vote for him...until now. No, I'm not going to vote now. However, I may well vote for him when the time comes.

Furthermore, Non, you've really not contributed enough. Now, I know people are levelling the same claim at me, and I know how I feel about the accusation and hence the reason I'm going to let you answer it. So, Non, impress me.

dancing spawn: Something just doesn't seem right, and seeing as I'm really leaning pretty hard towards lmp being the cobbler, it leaves me wondering if she isn't in fact our bear. I'm not as convinced of her bearishness (again! :rolleyes: ), so I'm going to go off and think long and hard.

We live in dark times, friends.

Boromir88

08-21-2005, 06:34 PM

Samwise, well you make a good argument for yourself, and bring up things that I missed. (Sorry about the girl mix-up, same to you Nonnacedak). Now you know why I don't attempt to make guesses on the "How do you imagine other BDers?" thread. :p

I'm not too worried about Nonnacedak. Though he has defended himself quite a bit, I just don't see himself as the bear type. I have this uneasy feeling if we lynch him that he's not the one we're looking for. However, that's probably how I'll feel about everyone when voting.

I really can't tell anything at this moment, I tried to go back to look through the 4 people who were killed by the bear (Alcarillo, Encataire, Wilwarin, and Lalaith) but to no avail, as these fellow villagers didn't seem to talk too much, or point at many people. That's why I think the bear is relatively the queit type that's hoped to sort of blend in with the majority.

Originally posted bySp Dancing awn: I agree that the bear might have voted with the majority once, twice or even three times, but four?
That very well could be true. Not saying I was on to any leads when I made that post, it was just an idea that I sort of conjured up. :)

Meneltarmacil

08-21-2005, 08:00 PM

Welle, I may die soone, but I'll vote anywaye.

++SamwiseGamgee

It's as goode a guesse as any, plus I'm kind of out of ideas.

littlemanpoet

08-21-2005, 08:15 PM

Q1 Why did LMP survive yet another night?

A1.1 The Beorning would be a fool to kill such a prime target of suspicion.
A1.2 LMP is the Beorning.

Q2 Is LMP the Beorning?

A2.1 Impossible, because LMP is an Ordinary Innocent.
A2.2 Impossible, because LMP is the Cobbler (see Q5 below)
A2.3 Impossible, becaue if LMP was the Beorning he would have killed The Saucepan Man on the first or second night, because as has been proven, he's too dangerous to the lycanthropes to be left alive. Which begs the next questions.....

Q3 Why didn't the werewolves kill SPM?

A3.1 They feared he was the Hunter, which is still a possibility (can the Hunter kill the Beorning?).
A3.2 They suspected that he might be the Beorning, in which case killing him would
(1) remove one of their own number (I believe it is a fact that a werewolf or Beorning attacking each other would end up in the death of both?);
(2) be counterproductive to their goal of getting rid of two innocent villagers per night for as long as possible.

Q4 Why didn't the Beorning kill SPM?

A4.1 Because the Beorning wants to lose.
A4.2 Because SPM is the Beorning.

Q5 Is LMP the Cobbler?

A5.1 To my understanding (waiting for more information from the Moddwen on this), the Cobbler has already lost, so s/he might as well reveal her/himself unless for spite s/he wants to see the Beorning win.
A5.2 No, because if I were the Cobbler, I would have realized that I've lost and would reveal myself and ask that you get rid of me, because that's how I play the game. I call upon the Cobbler to do this. Take that for what you will.

Q6 What if SPM is not the Beorning?

A6.1 Then the Beorning has been most unwise in allowing SPM to survive so long. Personally, I don't think anybody playing the game is that unwise; but I could be wrong.
A6.2 I notice that SPM has pulled back from LMP as his primary suspect, dismissing me as the Cobbler. This seems most convenient (and I admit I did my part in lending credence to this clever piece of strategy) after he so persuasively cast suspicion my way as the Beorning just two Days ago.
A6.3 SPM has assiduously been at work to discredit me since the beginning of this entire lycanthropic nightmare. Why would he do that if he were not seeking out likely innocents at whom he could conveniently cast suspicion?

I could be wrong. It could well be that Meneltarmacil is as guilty of Beorningness as he suddenly appeared to me (and apparently to SPM - how convenient-) yesterDay.

But then I find myself drawn back to the same original question that started this entire Q&A session:
How is it that SPM, not an object of much suspicion, has survived this long?

I rest my case.

littlemanpoet

08-21-2005, 08:27 PM

Oh, one more Answer to the Question of "Is LMP the Cobbler?"

A: If LMP was the Cobbler, he wouldn't give a rip who the Beorning is. Since he is doing all he can to discover the Beorning, it should be clear that he is not the Cobbler.

Nonnacedak

08-21-2005, 08:44 PM

Ok so I guess the reasons people think Im a Bear is because I havent posted enough and of who Ive voted for. Those seem like unsolid reasons to me.

SamewiseGamgee I guess being the only one voting for a wolf every night isnt contributing enough. I also believe I was one of the main reasons Laitaine was lynched. Anyways I will not impress you because I dont really care.

I did think SPM would have died by now as well. He is very helpful to have (well against the wolfs) but that could easily be why he has had basically no suspicion cast his way.

People keep saying that all I do is defend when that is really not true. Go read my posts. The first were I will admit but since then I have not really defended myself at all.

Nonnacedak

08-21-2005, 09:38 PM

Well Im going to sleep so I guess I have to vote.

This is a tough call but Im going with:

++SamewiseGamgee

I was going to vote for Saucepan but I figured I would let him go for at least one more night.

Durelin

08-21-2005, 10:19 PM

What have we got to lose but his clanging? :p And I think LMP makes the most sense today. Cobbler? I doubt it. And even so, he makes sense.

++The Saucepan Man

'Tis an honest vote! Chuck no potatoes hither!

Boromir88

08-21-2005, 10:29 PM

LMP, making sense? That's funny, by his own admission he's confused the heck out of us. His post of Q and A I don't see as solving anything...especially what he's claimed.
Since he is doing all he can to discover the Beorning

++LMP

Gurthang

08-21-2005, 11:16 PM

Originally posted by Nonnacedak
SamewiseGamgee I guess being the only one voting for a wolf every night isnt contributing enough. I also believe I was one of the main reasons Laitaine was lynched. Anyways I will not impress you because I dont really care.

You don't really care. Hmm. That almost sounds like the Cobbler to me, except I doubt the Cobbler would nail a wolf every time he voted. That would be killing your own team completely. And I don't like this new non-chalant attitude we are getting from Non. Since he's not the Cobbler, and I am now coinvinced he is not for the villagers, he must be our Bear.

++Nonnacedak

If you think this is somewhat early, well, I'm going to bed, and as tired as I am I seriously doubt I could drag myself out of bed to post in the morning.

voting so far:
SamwiseGamgee - 2
The Saucepan Man - 1
LMP - 1
Nonnacedak - 1

votes left: 4

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-22-2005, 02:19 AM

Durelin has been awfully quiet today. She voted for SpM without giving reasons. I'd like to hear more from her.

I've noticed that others have started wondering, too, why SpM is still alive. Lmp offered some reasons but does SpM have a clue about this matter?

You [Nonnacedak] don't really care. Hmm. That almost sounds like the Cobbler to me, except I doubt the Cobbler would nail a wolf every time he voted. I thought that, too but I really don't know what to think of him.

I'm now less convinced that Menel is the bear.

*sigh* Well, I have time. I'll go to do some rereading. At this point I'd believe that I'll cast my vote for Nonnac, Samwise or SpM.

littlemanpoet

08-22-2005, 03:37 AM

I have given all the reasons I need to already.

++ The Saucepan Man

LMP, making sense? That's funny, by his own admission he's confused the heck out of us. His post of Q and A I don't see as solving anything...especially what he's claimed.
:
Since he is doing all he can to discover the Beorning

I really thought my Q&A post had done quite a job of pointing out much of the likelihood that SPM is our Beorning. It's a pity you can't see that. I refer you to an early post of mine (quite early but I don't have the time to go find it) in which I said something to the effect that it was a little odd that SPM was the first one to give us insight into the mind of a Beorning.

The Saucepan Man

08-22-2005, 03:39 AM

In a way, I'm glad that some Villagers are starting to suspect me. It leads me to conclude that they are probably not the Bear.

I've noticed that others have started wondering, too, why SpM is still alive. Lmp offered some reasons but does SpM have a clue about this matter?I know why I'm still alive and, because I did not die last Night, I reckon the Bear knows why I'm still alive. It's the same reason that I think the Bear is unlikely to cast suspicion in my direction or vote for me. You'll have to figure it out for yourselves. If you figure it out wrong and end up lynching me, so be it.

Menel votes for Samwise without having previously given him much consideration. That's interesting.

So is this:

I was going to vote for Saucepan but I figured I would let him go for at least one more night.Don't you mean at least one more Day? Are you confusing your Day-time voting with your Night-time kills?

To my mind, such evidence as we currently have points towards either Menel or Nonna being the Bear. Since Menel has received no votes today, I'll vote for:

++ NONNACEDAK

Edit: Cross-posted with LMP. I didn't see his vote before voting but, even if I had, I would still have voted the same way.

littlemanpoet

08-22-2005, 03:43 AM

You don't really care. Hmm. That almost sounds like the Cobbler to me, except I doubt the Cobbler would nail a wolf every time he voted. That would be killing your own team completely. And I don't like this new non-chalant attitude we are getting from Non. Since he's not the Cobbler, and I am now coinvinced he is not for the villagers, he must be our Bear.

Why are you so certain that Nonna is not the Cobbler? I know I'm not the Cobbler, and seeing as his claim not to care follows upon my call for the Cobbler to reveal himself, maybe, just maybe, that's as close as we're going to get to an admission. I bet Nonnacedak is the Cobbler.

voting so far:
SamwiseGamgee - 2
The Saucepan Man - 2
LMP - 1
Nonnacedak - 2

votes left: 2

The Saucepan Man

08-22-2005, 03:52 AM

I bet Nonnacedak is the Cobbler.I'm sorry, but that is a ludicrous suggestion. Even a totally inept Cobbler would not have voted for a Wolf on every single Day and played such a major part in their demise.

Oh, and to answer a question that you asked:

Q3 Why didn't the werewolves kill SPM?

A3.1 They feared he was the Hunter, which is still a possibility (can the Hunter kill the Beorning?).Yes, the Hunter can kill the Beorning. :rolleyes:

littlemanpoet

08-22-2005, 03:54 AM

I know why I'm still alive and, because I did not die last Night, I reckon the Bear knows why I'm still alive. It's the same reason that I think the Bear is unlikely to cast suspicion in my direction or vote for me. You'll have to figure it out for yourselves. If you figure it out wrong and end up lynching me, so be it.

Well, I did suggest that in my Q&A post, didn't I?

So with two votes left, I'm willing to offer what support I may by giving SPM the benefit of the doubt.

Those of you who still have to vote, please vote for someone besides SPM.

By the way, according to the rules as stated by Moddwen in her first post, the Cobbler has lost because the Werewolves are all gone. Cobbler: The Cobbler hates his life so badly that he wants the WOLVES to win. He will do anything within his limited power to confuse the Villagers and so ensure a Werewolf victory, including letting himself be lynched. He does not know who the Wolves are. The Cobbler appears to be an innocent villager to the Seer.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-22-2005, 03:57 AM

I don't have any other choice than vote for Samwise, Nonnacedak or Saucy because I think that we agree that a triple lynching would be rather inconvenient in case Samwise won't appear to cast his vote.

++NONNACEDAK

The Saucepan Man

08-22-2005, 04:37 AM

Well, I doubt SamwiseGamgee is going to vote for himself. He might vote for me to get a double lynching, but that would be very suspicious behaviour.

In any event, Nonnacedak will now be lynched.

If it's not him, my next choices would be Meneltarmacil and LMP. I had only (conveniently :rolleyes: ) discounted you, LMP, because your absence for most of to-Day suggested that you are probably the Cobbler. Your re-appearance has made me reassess that conclusion.

If Nonnacedak is innocent and I die to-Night, you can probably discount those two. They are unlikely to risk killing me.

SamwiseGamgee

08-22-2005, 05:26 AM

Well, SpM, your guess is right: I won't vote for myself, and I won't vote for you. Insane as it may sound, for some unknown reason I can't help but trust you. Sure, I've thought it odd that you're still around an all, but that doesn't implicate you as the Beorning. So, sticking with my original suspicions I shall now vote. This could be a great moment of victory or our bleakest failure.

++ Nonnacedak

Oddwen

08-22-2005, 05:50 AM

Decided they early that to die would be Nonnacedak, their fisherman. After all...bears eat fish in the winter, right? How did Nonna bring back so many fish so consistently? Yeah, he's a bear alright!

They dragged him down to the lake wherin he kept holes open that he might rip the fish from their watery beds to become meals for the Villagers.

"Well," they said, "As boring and clichéed as it sounds, you're going to sleep with the fishes!"

They forced him down to his knees and his head into a hole, and as his struggles grew less, the flame in their hearts did also.

As he finally went limp, their hearts were as cold as the ice they stood on.

"Oops," they shivered. But then as they pulled the body from the hole, they were somewhat heartened. Latched onto his nose was a fine catch of a fish!

"Maybe it's a way of showing his forgiveness for our mistake," they sniffled. "It's a good sign!"

But as they laid hold of it, the pirhana nearly snapped their fingers off. The Villagers ran screaming back to Hamlet.

Living:

Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Gurthang
littlemanpoet
Meneltarmacil
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3
Gil-Galad (Werewolf) - Lynch'ed!! on DAY 3
Arcticstorm (Sherriff) - Touched by a ten foot pole on NIGHT 4
Wilwarin (Villager) - This fine specimen displayed on NIGHT 4
Laitaine (Werewolf) - Boo hoo hoo, Wolves are through. DAY 4
Lalaith (Villager) - Verily and forsooth, she was crushed on NIGHT 5
Nonnacedak (Villager) - Went to sleep with the fishes on DAY 5

'Tis indeed and forsooth NIGHT 6. Will the Seer, Bear and Hunter kindly sent me 1 (one) name each.
DAY will begin in 24 1/6 hours.

Cobbler - sorry, you've already lost. You are free to wreak havoc or get yourself killed, whatever you will.

Oddwen

08-23-2005, 06:08 AM

The sixth DAY since the start of these proceedings broke, and the Villagers awoke to a wonderful smell.

"Mmm," they said. "At least Zali...er, LMP doesn't let the recent tragedies get in the way of her...ah, his job."

They wandered to the bakery in hopes of getting free doughnuts, or pastry therof. The door was wide open.

"That's Zaaa-aa...LMP for you!" they said. "Never one to turn away customers!"

Greeting them as they entered was a huge display of jelly filled doughnuts.

"Yay!" they cried, "With sprinkles!" And with great aplomb and ado, they set about consuming the sugary treats.

But after a few bites, the chewing slowed down to a rate of about 2 CPM.

"What kind of jelly is this?" one asked.

"It's not strawberry," cried one.

"It's not raspberry," mumbled one.

"It's not cranberry," muttered one.

"Is it Goldberry?" wondered one.

"It's not gooseberry, or currant or apple or cherry," worried one.

"Is it LMPberry?" screamed one.

Such a spitting was never seen in a bakery before! Retching and yowling, the seven exited the bakery. Some lay on the snow and rolled about in agony, some stood shaking their fists to the wood, but all were extremely ticked off.

"Wait a second," said one. "Why wasn't he made into an LMP cobbler?"

They again entered the Place of Bakes, giving LMP's final resting place(s) a wide berth. But not a cobbler could they find.

Just a note reading:

"She wasn't the Cobbler!"

"Drat!" said they.

-----------------------------

Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Gurthang
Meneltarmacil
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3
Gil-Galad (Werewolf) - Lynch'ed!! on DAY 3
Arcticstorm (Sherriff) - Touched by a ten foot pole on NIGHT 4
Wilwarin (Villager) - This fine specimen displayed on NIGHT 4
Laitaine (Werewolf) - Boo hoo hoo, Wolves are through. DAY 4
Lalaith (Villager) - Verily and forsooth, she was crushed on NIGHT 5
Nonnacedak (Villager) - Went to sleep with the fishes on DAY 5
littlemanpoet (Villager) - Baked into doughnuts, with sprinkles on NIGHT 6

Now beginneth DAY 6. Lynch whom you pleaseth.

Meneltarmacil

08-23-2005, 06:30 AM

Alright, only seven of us left, with a Beare in our midste. Let's looke at ye voting from yesterDaye:

Voted for Nonnacedak (innocente): Gurthang, Saucepan Man, dancing spawn, SamwiseGamgee

Voted for SamwiseGamgee: Menel, Nonnacedak (innocente),

Voted for Ye Saucepan Man: Durelin, (EDIT: ) LMP (innocente)

Voted for LMP (innocente): Boromir88

It appeareth that after Nonnacedak and myselfe cast early votes for SamwiseGamgee, Gurthang came and started a Nonnacedak bandwagon, whiche I notice Ye Saucepan Man jumped on. I also notice that Saucy was eager for CaptainofDespair's innocente bloode earlier. Coulde he be ye Beare, trying to hide in ye open?

Boromir88 hath not my complete truste either. He goeth after an innocente who, even if he were ye Cobbler, woulde not be able to do us muche harme anyway now that ye Wolves are deade.

Boromir88

08-23-2005, 06:47 AM

Boromir88 hath not my complete truste either. He goeth after an innocente who, even if he were ye Cobbler, woulde not be able to do us muche harme anyway now that ye Wolves are deade.
I call it a set up. If you notice that is the first time I did not vote with the majority. Why, I didn't vote in the majority you'll have to figure out.

I actually think a lot of people are being set up at this point. I've been pondering LMP's post, as to why Sauce hasn't been killed yet. And doing that, I've also pondered why I haven't been killed yet. But, let's look at who the bear has killed...

Night 1- Alcarillo
Night 2- Encaitare
Night 3- Wilwarin
Night 4- Lalaith
Night 5- LMP

As you can see a lot of these people have not left a trail as to who to go after. The bear is being extremely quiet, knowing if he/she kills one of the ones speaking out and talking suspects the village will look at our posts and figure out who it is. So, the bear is killing people that don't talk a lot, or don't give us much to go off of, making it extremely difficult. With that being said I must look at Gurthang, and be interested in what he has to say? As ever since Day 1 we've sort of took his character for granted and haven't asked much from him.

Edit: Since I haven't looked thorougly through LMP's post, perhaps we can find something from LMP's post, but I wouldn't count on it.

The Saucepan Man

08-23-2005, 06:48 AM

Alas poor littlemanpoet, I liked his pies (until to-Day, that is. *Urk!*).

But why did the Bear kill him of all people? As he said on numerous occasions, he was a prime suspect - for Cobbler if not Bear. Perhaps the Bear thought that he was the Seer. That seems the most likely reason.

And it's a shame about Nonnacedak, for he served the Village well in rooting out the Wolves. I am sorry for my part in his death.

Oh well, as always, here's yester-Day's voting:

1. Menel for SamwiseGamgee (SamwiseGamgee - 1)
2. Nonnacedak for SamwiseGamgee (SamwiseGamgee – 2)
3. Durelin for SpM (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 1)
4. Boromir88 for LMP (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 1; LMP - 1)
5. Gurthang for Nonnacedak (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 1; LMP – 1; Nonnacedak - 1)
6. LMP for SpM (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 2; LMP – 1; Nonnacedak - 1)
7. SpM for Nonnacedak (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 2; LMP – 1; Nonnacedak - 2)
8. Dancing spawn for Nonnacedak (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 2; LMP – 1; Nonnacedak - 3)
9. SamwiseGamgee for Nonnacedak (SamwiseGamgee – 2; SpM – 2; LMP – 1; Nonnacedak - 4)

A few thoughts occur.

I doubt that those who voted for me are guilty of anything more than Cobblerishness. LMP, as we now know, was innocent (poor chap - that rant was genuine after all :( ) and Durelin I now suspect as the Cobbler.

Boromir88's vote is interesting. He voted for LMP at a time when LMP had not yet arrived in the Village Hex and seemed a dead cert (to me at least) for Cobbler. Might he be the Bear - trying to avoid suspicion by voting for someone he thought few others would vote for? Then LMP gets pureed. Could it be a set-up, or a bold double-bluff?

And SamwiseGamgee's vote is also worth noting. Unusually, he waited until the last minute to vote. Perhaps any Villager who looks in danger of being lynched would do the same thing. But it may have been the desparate attempt of a Bear doing his best to avoid the noose. He could, of course, have tied Nonnacedak and me for a double lynching, but that would have looked too suspicious.

That said, the Bear could still be any one of you. One thing's for certain. I am not the Bear. I hope that you all realise that and don't go wasting any votes on me today.

Of course, if the Seer dreamed of the Bear last Night, then we are in luck and the Village is saved. If not, then I trust the Seer's judgment to say no more than he or she feels able.

But beware, folks. We probably only have two more Days (three at most) to get this right.

The Saucepan Man

08-23-2005, 07:54 AM

As you can see a lot of these people have not left a trail as to who to go after. The bear is being extremely quiet, knowing if he/she kills one of the ones speaking out and talking suspects the village will look at our posts and figure out who it is.Actually, littlemanpoet was pretty outspoken.

In case it helps, I have reviewed the suspicions voiced by the Bear's victims concerning those of us who remain. This is my own interpretation of their posts, so please feel free to comment if you view it differently.

Alcarillo: Mildy accused Gurthang (Day 1)
Encaitare: No accusations against any of the survivors.
Wilwarin538: Mildly accused Durelin (Day 2)
Lalaith: Voted for Meneltarmacil (Day 1); Mildly accused Boromir88 (as the Bear), dancing spawn, Gurthang and Menel (Day 3).
Littlemanpoet: Voted for Gurthang (Day 1); mildly accused Boromir88 and voted for Durelin (Day 2); suspected Boromir88 and then cleared him, also suspected Durelin (Day 3); voted for dancing spawn and pointed to Meneltarmacil as a possible Bear (Day 4); accused and voted for SpM and then cleared him, maintained suspicion of Meneltarmacil (Day 5).

The name that sticks out for me is Meneltarmacil. He is the Villager that littlemanpoet suspected most after me (and he cleared me before the end). Now, it would be bold of Meneltarmacil to kill one of those accusing him. But perhaps, given all that we have said about it being unlikely that a Bear would do that, he felt that he could get away with it.

Gurthang

08-23-2005, 08:52 AM

Blck! I've rinsed out my mouth twenty times, and I still can't get that aweful taste from my mouth. To kill LMP is one thing, but to do this to him and us! This is a triply unpleasant morning, indeed!

Originally posted by Boromir88
As you can see a lot of these people have not left a trail as to who to go after. The bear is being extremely quiet, knowing if he/she kills one of the ones speaking out and talking suspects the village will look at our posts and figure out who it is. So, the bear is killing people that don't talk a lot, or don't give us much to go off of, making it extremely difficult. With that being said I must look at Gurthang, and be interested in what he has to say? As ever since Day 1 we've sort of took his character for granted and haven't asked much from him.

I'm not quite sure what your question is. I can understand what you say about the victims being quite, except LMP and Lalaith weren't, but I don't see how that points to me. If you can specify why you are accusing me, I'll try to prove my innocence as much as I can.

Originally posted by The Saucepan Man
Boromir88's vote is interesting. He voted for LMP at a time when LMP had not yet arrived in the Village Hex and seemed a dead cert (to me at least) for Cobbler. Might he be the Bear - trying to avoid suspicion by voting for someone he thought few others would vote for? Then LMP gets pureed. Could it be a set-up, or a bold double-bluff?

That's kind of what I was thinking. That would be a bold double-bluff indeed. And with Boromir's mention of reverse-psycology earlier, it just might be crazy enough to pull off.

And speaking of crazy ideas, I've just thought of one, but it requires the cooperation of the Cobbler, and I don't know if that will work out. But here's the idea: if the Cobbler announces himself, then we have a known innocent. If we could organize a *mass lynching* leaving just the cobbler, then the village will win. And if we try to do it, and someone does not cooperate(besides the cobbler), then we will know that that person is the bear.

Now, having said that, I don't know if the Cobbler will go for it, since he's not on our side. But it's a thought.

The Saucepan Man

08-23-2005, 09:01 AM

And speaking of crazy ideas, I've just thought of one, but it requires the cooperation of the Cobbler, and I don't know if that will work out. But here's the idea: if the Cobbler announces himself, then we have a known innocent. If we could organize a *mass lynching* leaving just the cobbler, then the village will win. And if we try to do it, and someone does not cooperate(besides the cobbler), then we will know that that person is the bear.Two problems with that:

1. The Cobbler is unlikely to be cooperative. S/he doesn't care who wins.
2. I am not sure if the Village does win if the Cobbler is the last one left standing.

I hope that everyone will, by now, have realised why it is that I am innocent. I could preside over a mass lynching, but I would be uncomfortable doing so with at least two, and possibly three, Days left to find the Bear. Perhaps we could visit the idea to-Morrow. I might die tonight, but the Bear would be taking a great risk in killing me.

Durelin

08-23-2005, 10:07 AM

What I find interesting is that the bear killed the suspected Cobbler. Chances are, the Cobbler is a good innocent to keep alive for the bear, as he may not help the villagers. Though, of course, he may help them a lot. I guess it was a toss up, particularly since it wasn't certain that LMP was the Cobbler.

I still say it's about time we lynched Saucie. Or Boro.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-23-2005, 10:23 AM

2. I am not sure if the Village does win if the Cobbler is the last one left standing.
And what a great victory it would be with all villagers dead...

Let's not panic yet. We still have two gifted among us.

I can't decide what I think of Menel. You know, analyzing every word of other villagers' can make you rather paranoid. Gurthang came and started a Nonnacedak bandwagon, whiche I notice Ye Saucepan Man jumped on. I also notice that Saucy was eager for CaptainofDespair's innocente bloode earlier. Coulde he be ye Beare, trying to hide in ye open?

Boromir88 hath not my complete truste either. He goeth after an innocente who, even if he were ye Cobbler, woulde not be able to do us muche harme anyway now that ye Wolves are deade.
Funny. These are the ones I'm the least worried about right now. Well, except maybe Gurthang. It seems to me that most of us took his innocence as granted after Mithwolfwen voted for him on Day 1. Maybe it would be wise to keep an eye on him.

Boromir88

08-23-2005, 10:39 AM

Durelin, it would be unwise to lynch me, I'll put it that way. As I mentioned earlier I've given clues to why I vote the way I vote, LMP caught on, but I guess few others have. I still recommend you looking why I voted for who I did yesterday, and why I didn't vote for Nonnacedak.

Gurthang, you can say I'm mildly suspicious of you. It's nothing solid. But, Day 1 there were a few suspicions on your words and everyone seemed to have discarded it as you being in character. And that still may be the case, but you've gone unnoticed since Day 1, and the silent people seem to be getting knocked off, merely interested in hearing what you have to say on the matter of how do we get this bear.

And indeed it would be a very bold double bluff to continually vote the way people say a bear would vote, and then offer ideas to how to catch the bear and then do that exact thing. But, believe what you want.

Funny. These are the ones I'm the least worried about right now. Well, except maybe Gurthang. It seems to me that most of us took his innocence as granted after Mithwolfwen voted for him on Day 1. Maybe it would be wise to keep an eye on him.
That has been my thinking.

I'm not quite sure what your question is. I can understand what you say about the victims being quite, except LMP and Lalaith weren't,~Gurthang

Actually, littlemanpoet was pretty outspoken.~Saucepan
He was, but as far as compared to the rest of us he was fairly quiet. Though there are a few others that don't mention much (Meneltarmacil and Samwise), but they still give suspects and there thoughts. LMP was more outspoken the last couple days when people began suspecting him, and so far has been the most talkative from the ones to have been killed by the bear.

Lalaith, I didn't see many ideas from. There were some suspicions but I saw mostly from what other fellow villagers were believing.

The name that sticks out for me is Meneltarmacil.~Saucepan
I had pointed out the same suspicions yesterday when offering my idea on to how to catch this bear. Though I did back off towards the end of the day, he's still one of my top suspects now.

The Saucepan Man

08-23-2005, 10:48 AM

I still say it's about time we lynched Saucie. Or Boro.Any particular reason?

Maybe it would be wise to keep an eye on him.I'm keeping an eye on everyone.

The Saucepan Man

08-23-2005, 10:52 AM

Sorry to double-post, but there is something I forgot to ask.

Menel, why did you vote yesterday for SamwiseGamgee without having previously mentioned any strong suspicion of him? Prior to that, your "maine suspecte" appears to have been Boromir88. Why the sudden switch?

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-23-2005, 11:09 AM

I'm keeping an eye on everyone.
Well, two eyes, then. ;)

Boromir, you are playing dangerous game. But I tend to agree with you.

Right now I'm leaning towards Menel's innocence. Perhaps he was just testing people's reactions with his last post.

My top three suspects are (in no particular order) Durelin, Samwise & Gurthang.

Durelin

08-23-2005, 11:16 AM

Oh blast it, I have to actually think this through, don't I? :p

Any particular reason?The bear could easily have killed you before you got the chance to rat him out. Either you're the bear, or you've been completely off on your Bear suspects. You did help both the Village and the bear by getting rid of all the wolves. Boromir seems to work in similar ways, though it is a little too obvious if Boro is the bear, as LMP's death would give him away.

Durelin, it would be unwise to lynch me, I'll put it that way. As I mentioned earlier I've given clues to why I vote the way I vote, LMP caught on, but I guess few others have.Are you suggesting you're the Seer?

Menel, why did you vote yesterday for SamwiseGamgee without having previously mentioned any strong suspicion of him? Prior to that, your "maine suspecte" appears to have been Boromir88.Good question.

I also think that we should take a closer look at Dancing Spawn and Gurthang.

I don't trust anyone right now, and certainly not Saucepan Man. I think he's going to get us all lynched...next thing you know, he'll be proclaiming himself the Cobbler. ;)

Meneltarmacil

08-23-2005, 11:19 AM

Ye main reason that I was suspiciouse of Boromir88 was because he was staying somewhatte sliente, posting juste enoughe to not appeare highly suspiciouse, and I thoughte he was doing so deliberately. My suspiciones lessened when I hearde that he really didn't have a choice aboute it. As for who I thinke ye Beare is, I thinke he/she is probably one of ye ones who voted for Nonnacedak yesterDaye, possibly Gurthang since he started ye bandwagon, or maybe dancing spawn who put Non in ye leade.
(I crosse-posted withe Durelin--I was not juste copying her.)

The Saucepan Man

08-23-2005, 11:29 AM

Either you're the bear, or you've been completely off on your Bear suspects.The latter. :D Although I believe that I may now be closing in for the kill ...

Durelin, the only remaining Villager, other than yourself, that you did not throw some suspicion towards in that one post of yours is SamwiseGamgee. Is there any doubt now that you are the Cobbler? I mean, we just have to look at your spectacularly bad (or good, depending upon how we look at it ;) ) voting record with regard to the Wolves.

Menel, you didn't answer my question ...

Meneltarmacil

08-23-2005, 11:34 AM

Menel, you didn't answer my question ...
I really didn'te have a lot of leades to go on at that pointe. I had only a fewe minutes lefte before I had to "leave ye village hexagon" and since I was not that suspiciouse of Boromir88, I figured I'd try to vote for someone who stoode a chance of being lynched rather than looking like a hairy beaste and voting suspiciousely or not at all.

Durelin

08-23-2005, 11:42 AM

Durelin, the only remaining Villager, other than yourself, that you did not throw some suspicion towards in that one post of yours is SamwiseGamgee.Oh...I forgot about him... :o Sorry, Samwise.

Is there any doubt now that you are the Cobbler? I mean, we just have to look at your spectacularly bad (or good, depending upon how we look at it ;) ) voting record with regard to the Wolves.Now, this is why I wanted to lynch you. Even though I actually still think you might be the bear. Though really I don't care either way. I just want you lynched because you made me lose.

Actually, the wolves lost all by themselves. And there was nothing I could do to stop it. I congratulate you, wolves, for making my life even more miserable! I knew I never should have trusted any canine. And I especially thank Sauciepan Man for his spectacular performance, whether it is sincere innocence or mock. The rest of you are slow on the uptake. :p

And thus, without further ado...

++Durelin

Who ever told you cats don't wear shoes?!

Shameless EDIT: Saucepan Man is the Hunter, and Boromir88 is the Seer.

Gurthang

08-23-2005, 12:01 PM

Interesting. I see two possibilities.

1. Durelin is the Bear and is lying so that we will not kill her.
2. She is the Cobbler and has given us a known innocent.

We now have a choice. We can lynch Durelin to make sure she is not the bear, but that would throw away the advantage of having a known innocent. Or we try to do the multiple lynch and either flush out the bear or lynch it in the proceedings. I think she is the Cobbler. I was suspicious of her towards the beginning(not necassarily of being the cobbler; I'm not as smart as some people. *cough*SosPan*cough*) and I can see that her voting shows that she avoided voting for wolves. Only, since she voted for herself, we can't get a mass lynching, not toDay at least.

Or there is always option three: you could do none of the above and completely ignore my idea like last time I brought it up. :p

The Saucepan Man

08-23-2005, 12:06 PM

And I especially thank Sauciepan Man for his spectacular performance, whether it is sincere innocence or mock.And if indeed you are the Cobbler, may I congratulate you on a game well played, despite the lack of support from your Wolf buddies ... :D

OK, here's my plan.

If you had not picked up on my numerous (and probably far too heavy handed) hints already, I am the Hunter. If anyone else claims to be the Hunter, they are the Bear and will have lost by doing so. The Bear already knows that I am the Hunter, I am sure of it, so there is no harm in me revealing this now.

Durelin has owned up to being the Cobbler. Of course, there is still a outside chance that she is the Bear playing a last, desparate card. But she is certainly not an innocent Villager. So I suggest that we lynch her today. Then, to-Morrow, we will have at least one known innocent (myself or the Seer, possibly both). We organise a mass lynching of everyone - excluding that one known innocent. The Bear will either vote for an innocent who already has a vote (in which case he will have revealed himself, one innocent dies and there will be two innocents left on the last Day to vote for him), he will play along (in which case he dies) or he will refuse to vote (in which case he dies).

The only drawback is if I unwittingly kill the Seer tonight. It may therefore be worth the Seer owning up now. Either s/he or I will then die tonight, but we still have our known innocent tomorrow, because the Bear can only kill once per Night.

But, before we go any further (and certainly before the Seer reveals him/her-self), please can everyone think about my plan and let me know if they can see any drawbacks or loopholes. I don't think there are, but we must be sure before implementing it.

It's drastic, I know, but I think that it will at least guarantee that the Beorning cannot wreak havoc in any other Villages.

Edit: Cross-posted with Gurthang, who is thinking along similar lines.

Durelin

08-23-2005, 12:16 PM

1. Durelin is the Bear and is lying so that we will not kill her.
I wish! Like I don't expect you bloodthirsty villagers to lynch me either way... Plus I already voted for myself, deary. :p

SamwiseGamgee

08-23-2005, 01:38 PM

I think your idea may be the only way we can do it, Saucepan Man, and I'm going to throw my lot in right away. It's the only way it can be done.

++ Durelin

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-23-2005, 01:42 PM

Okay, at least this clears something up.

We have 5 villagers whose identity we don't know + SpM + Durelin (if she really isn't the bear in a cobbler's disguise).
The only drawback is if I unwittingly kill the Seer tonight. It may therefore be worth the Seer owning up now. I'd rather keep the Seer around. I think I've spotted the Seer but I'm not sure about that. If the Seer knows one or even two villagers who are innocent, it might be wise to step forth and finish this today. If s/he has been most unlucky, all his/her dream subjects are already dead. Hmm... tricky.

Durelin has voted for herself.
There are 6 votes left. What if everyone votes for him/herself except SpM and probably the Seer if s/he reveals him/herself? If someone doesn't show up and vote, SpM or the Seer can vote for them. That's one shameless way to end this, though.

What if we keep Durelin around and do a double lynching? If the bear isn't among them, there would be (if the Seer reveals him/herself) the bear, Durelin, one gifted and one villager left tomorrow, right? I mean, that's the case if the bear kills the Seer next night. Then the last two villagers vote for themselves. If one of them don't, s/he's the bear and Durelin and the last gifted can save the day. Does this work or am I missing something? This would require some co-operation from Durelin, though. Let's get you to terapy, girl! Life's worth living!

Durelin

08-23-2005, 01:42 PM

I think your idea may be the only way we can do it, Saucepan Man, and I'm going to throw my lot in right away. It's the only way it can be done.*gasps* You're just saying that because I forgot to accuse you! :eek: ;)

Lynch Saucepan Man, he's lying about his hunterness, he got the guardian killed... *insert Jedi mind tricks here*

EDIT: Therapists are tasty...

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-23-2005, 01:49 PM

Ah, sorry for the double. I guess I didn't read SpM's post carefully enough. Yeah, I'm up for it. That plan sounds flawless to me. Only, I'm pretty convinced that Durelin's the Cobbler. Can't we lynch some another people today so we might be done with this sooner? Maybe not. I'll come back later and vote for Durelin, if that's what we have decided then.

SamwiseGamgee

08-23-2005, 01:53 PM

I must admit, I was hurt to not be accused by the cobbler! Am I really that boring? :( :p

dancing spawn, I think SpM's plan works better, because it leaves us with better options tomorrow. It requires everyone who's innocent to pull in together, but it can definitely be done. I do agree, however, that if the seer can provide a list of innocents s/he should let us know. What do others think?

SamwiseGamgee

08-23-2005, 01:55 PM

Sorry, dancing spawn, cross-posted with you. So, no difference of opinion, then! :D

Durelin

08-23-2005, 01:56 PM

I like dancing spawn's plan better... I'll cooperate... You may chop off my tail if I don't!

SamwiseGamgee

08-23-2005, 02:00 PM

What do you guys think of the seer dreaming of SpM tonight? It would clear up the possibility of crazy suspicions tomorrow. Or are we comfortable with SpM's innocence? Or perhaps the seer has already dreamed of SpM.

The Saucepan Man

08-23-2005, 02:00 PM

Actually, it occured to me on the way back to my hut (ie on the train home) that we can finish this here and now.

Durelin is either the Cobbler (likely) or the Bear (unlikely). She has already voted for herself.

If the Seer reveals him/her-self now, and perhaps identifies one or two others as innocent, we can simply lynch everyone else. (Sorry, I know that sounds harsh, but we don't want the Bear escaping to wreak havoc elsewhere, do we now). This we can do by everyone who is not a known innocent agreeing to vote for one other person who is also not a known innocent, thus:

A (Hunter) - does not vote.
B (Seer) - does not vote.
C (Durelin) - already voted for C
D - votes for E
E - votes for F
F - votes for G
G - votes for D

That assumes that there are only two known innocents. If there are more (because the Seer has identified them), then they don't vote either.

In this situation, the Bear (assuming Durelin is not the Bear) can:

1. vote according to that plan - in which case he dies.

2. vote for a Villager other than the one allocated to him - in which case that Villager dies today, another innocent dies overnight and the Bear is lynched by the remaining innocent Villagers (3 or 4, depending upon whether Durelin survives or not) to-Morrow;

3. vote for himself - in which case he dies; or

4. not vote - in which case he dies and an innocent Villager is saved.

The plan requires that every innocent Villager vote according to the agreed "rota".

Of course, the Bear may declare himself as the Seer. Once the Seer has declared, therefore, we need to wait until every Villager has confirmed that they are not the Seer before we go ahead. If someone else claims to be the Seer, the Bear is clearly one or other of those claiming to be the Seer and we lynch one of them. If he is not the Bear, we lynch the other one to-Morrow.

The same applies with regard to the Hunter role, in the event that you still don't trust me (although looking back through my posts should reveal the clues that I have left).

The only problem with this plan is that, if Durelin is the Bear and the Seer is not able to reveal any other known innocents, then the Cobbler still has an opportunity to put a spanner in the works. I tend to think that Durelin is the Cobbler but, if anyone has any doubts, then we might have to revert to Plan A (see my previous post).

So, what does everyone think?

Edit: Cross-posted with lots of people. Looks like the plan outlined above is out of the window. I'll have to review what everyone has said to catch up ...

SamwiseGamgee

08-23-2005, 02:05 PM

It can't work. I already voted for Durelin. Sorry! :(

The Saucepan Man

08-23-2005, 02:12 PM

SamwiseGamgee's vote for Durelin means that she has 2 votes. We can't therefore put Plan B into effect. We could go for a double lynching, but I would rather keep as many people around for to-Morrow as possible - just to make sure. Plan A is probably the better one anyway.

I wonder if I could simply not hunt tonight to avoid any possibility of inadvertently killing the Seer? Moddwen?

Of course, it means I'll probably die to-Night and you'll have to be sure that you trust the declared Seer before orchestrating the mass lynching. Also, if this happens, be sure to vote according to the method I outlined above (C votes for D, D votes for E etc), rather than everyone voting for themselves. It avoids the possibility of the Bear not voting and being free to kill another Night.

What do you guys think of the seer dreaming of SpM tonight? It would clear up the possibility of crazy suspicions tomorrow. Or are we comfortable with SpM's innocence? Or perhaps the seer has already dreamed of SpM.I suspect that the Seer has already dreamed of me. But, either way, the Seer should not waste time dreaming of me. If you want me to point to some of my earlier clues, I shall. But the Seer should dream of someone else - either to pinpoint the Bear or to have another known innocent around to-Morrow.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-23-2005, 02:18 PM

Hey guys (and a girl), unfortunately I'm off to bed now. Whatever you decide, I'm up for it.

Boromir88

08-23-2005, 02:27 PM

I am the Seer. If I have found the bear I would have fessed up already, but I KNOW two innocents, one I'm pretty confident in.

Indeed Dancing Spawn, I was playing a bold game. My intentions were to stay alive as long as possible, and by doing that I had to look like the bear. The Bear would not kill me if I was being suspected, as long as he/she did not know I was the Seer. So, I may have been playing too boldy, I may not have.

Anyway, I know two innocents...Saucepan and Durelin. Though Durelin appears to be the cobbler. (So, Durelin is not the bear Gurthang).

I feel pretty safe with Dancing Spawn. It appears only her and LMP caught the hints I dropped off...
My only diversion comes when talks of votes coming up.
See, I've been sure of Saucepan's innocents for a while. Hence my defense of him. I also, knew Nonnacedak was innocent, why I did not vote, and tried to take suspicion away. Perhaps, I should have voted for someone who would have gotten more votes, but aye I tried.

To seereally what I try to do is up for your own interpretation. (emphasis mine)
I had known LMP caught on to this so there was no point in dreaming of him. He either was innocent, or I would be killed the next day. Therefor, when I did not die that night I knew of his innocents. And I'm pretty confident in Dancing Spawn, as for a few days now she's suspected me as the Seer, and since I'm still a live I'm pretty confident in her innocents.

So, that leaves...Meneltarmacil, Samwise, and Gurthang.

The Saucepan Man

08-23-2005, 03:00 PM

Thanks for coming forward Boromir88. I did strongly suspect you as the Seer, right back to when LMP noted your supposed "diversionary" behaviour, but I could not be sure that you were not the Bear trying to look like the Seer. Certainly, I have never hunted you.

Of course, to be sure, we have to wait and make sure that no one else confesses to being the Seer. I doubt that anyone will.

In case any doubt reamined over my identity, I have just been gathering together all the clues I left to my identity. I'll set them out anyway, as they vouch for Boromir88's innocence too, I believe.

I use the arrow icon on many of my posts, particularly when accusing or putting forward ideas (although it seems that Menel uses this too - I had not noticed before). It's the sign of the Hunter. :D I would also cite my insistence on Day 1 that we were on starting a wolf hunt (#13 and 22). In my posts, particularly early on, I included lots of references to tracking, hunting, flushing out, bagging etc werecreatures (#80, #85 (final paragraph) and #91 to name but a few). See also posts #97 (having Gil-Galad in my sights - if only I had gone with my initial suspicions of him), #102 and #111 (shooting in the dark). There are more of these references earlier on, although I carried on using them, albeit less frequently, throughout. When I stated my innocence by saying that my words spoke for themselves (#158), I meant it literally. The biggest clue of all, though, was at the end of Day 2 (#184):

On another note, unless CaptainofDespair is innocent, it is quite possible that I will not survive this NIGHT. If that be the case, all I can say is bring it on! :p ;) Oh, and all that business yesterday when LMP wondered why I had not been killed? I suspect it’s because the were creatures picked up on my hints and dare not kill me.

It looks now like we can now put Plan A into effect by lynching Durelin. Either Boromir88 or I will probably die to-Night (unless the Bear makes a last ditch attempt to make us look guilty).

I will post later with my ideas on how the voting should go to-Morrow (in case I do die to-Night).

Of course, the Bear could always own up now and save us all the bother (not to mention the lives of innocent Villagers). I'll hold off from voting, just in case he or she does.

Gurthang

08-23-2005, 04:14 PM

Wow, I can see that people have finally caught onto my idea of a mass lynching, but with SamwiseGamgee's vote for Durelin, that cannot happen toDay. I agree now that lynching Durelin is a good plan, just so she can't screw things up, not like we have any choice. :rolleyes:

I will vote later though. Meneltarmacil has been silent since Saucepan Man annouced his ability. I just want to make sure everyone is on the same page before voting for Durelin.

Boromir88

08-23-2005, 04:21 PM

I agree now that lynching Durelin is a good plan, just so she can't screw things up, not like we have any choice.~Gurthang
Or we could even try to find the bear tonight? I am right now most suspicious of Meneltarmacil. But, I would be in favor of all voting for Durelin if that's what is decided.

I will post later with my ideas on how the voting should go to-Morrow (in case I do die to-Night).~Saucepan
I would count on you making through the night, but who knows, just in case it would be a good idea.

I will probably post some final thoughts on people before the day ends.

The Saucepan Man

08-23-2005, 05:25 PM

Or we could even try to find the bear tonight?I too am most suspicious of Meneltarmacil, due to his silence. There's still a chance, though, that the Bear could be one of the others and that he is buying time to think. So I think that it's too risky to try for the Bear to-Day. If we get it wrong, we have to contend with both Durelin and the Bear to-Morrow and that could mess things up.

So, here's the final plan - Plan C. :D

First, wait as long as you can before voting, just to make sure that the Bear does not try to pass themselves off as the "real" Hunter or Seer. Then, when you have to vote, vote for Durelin.

If anyone tries to claim that they are the Hunter or the Seer and we can still lynch them to-Day, then we should do so (if we get it wrong, we can lynch the other one to-Morrow). If we can't do that because there are already too many votes for Durelin, then we either go for a double lynching to-Morrow or lynch one to-Morrow and, if we get it wrong, lynch the other the following Day (when there will still be two innocents left).

The following assumes that we lynch Durelin to-Day.

Unfortunately, Boromir88 will probably die to-Night, since the Bear will want to avoid either himself being pinpointed or two innocents being around to-Morrow. Unless I am certain of the Bear, I will not hunt tonight, to avoid killing another innocent. That means that I may die, but then Boromir88 will survive. Happily, whatever the Bear does over-Night, it will not avail him if all goes to plan.

So, tomorrow, we will have (at worst) 1 known innocent, 3 other (unknown) innocents and one Bear. We vote as follows:

A (Hunter or Seer) - does not vote.
B votes for C
C votes for D
D votes for E
E votes for B

That assumes that there is only one known innocent. If there are more, then they don't vote either.

In this situation, the Bear will have to do one of the following:

1. vote according to that plan - in which case he dies.

2. vote for a Villager other than the one allocated to him - in which case that Villager dies to-Morrow, another innocent dies overnight and the Bear (ie the one Villager who did not vote according to the plan) is lynched by the remaining two innocent Villagers the following Day;

3. vote for himself - in which case he dies; or

4. not vote - in which case he dies and an innocent Villager is saved.

The plan requires that every innocent Villager vote according to the agreed "rota".

The plan guarantees, I think, a victory for the Villagers. It is up to the Bear how many innocents die in the process.

If anyone can see a flaw, please bring it up as soon as possible. Otherwise ...

Let's hunt some Bear! :D

(Hehe, I have been wanting to say that since Day 1.)

PS There is one question that I must ask of the mighty Moddwen:

Can the Hunter choose not to nominate a victim over-Night?

Meneltarmacil

08-23-2005, 06:07 PM

Saucepan Man, thy idea soundeth like a goode one. Even if it's a bit bloody, we have to stoppe ye Beare soone. I'll wait as long as I can before having to exit ye village hexagon, and vote for Durelin unlesse ye Beare revealeth its identity somehowe.

The Saucepan Man

08-23-2005, 06:54 PM

Nice of you to join us, Menel. ;)

I am retiring for my mid-Day nap now. But I sleep lightly and shall have my finger on the trigger of my trusty silver-bolted Crossbow, Weresbane, just in case anyone furry decides to come a'sniffing round. :p

When I return, I shall vote for Durelin, unless there have been any radical developments in the meantime. As always, I'll be voting late, so as to keep an eye out for any Bearish tricks.

Boromir88

08-23-2005, 07:12 PM

I will get to bed earlier, so I can get up in time to cast a vote then. (I think setting the alarm might help). If nothing's changed since then, my vote goes to Durelin.

Meneltarmacil

08-23-2005, 08:00 PM

Not muche time lefte unlesse I get up earlier than usual during ye summer. I thinke I'll vote now.

++Durelin

Durelin

08-23-2005, 10:24 PM

I agree now that lynching Durelin is a good plan, just so she can't screw things up, not like we have any choice. :rolleyes:*harrumph* I am horribly offended! Me? Screw things up?! Personally I think I'm a waste of a lynch...

Curse you all! I hope the Bear is smart enough to get you, though I doubt he'll get out of this one.

And to think all I've wanted for the past couple days was to get Saucie lynched :p Oh, and you made it onto my list, too, Boromir. And yes you should be honored...

Not muche time lefte unlesse I get up earlier than usual during ye summer. I thinke I'll vote now.

++Durelin
Ahh...third time's a charm. ;)

Gurthang

08-23-2005, 11:19 PM

Well, to bed, to bed, so I must vote:

++Durelin

See most of you toMorrow.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-24-2005, 12:18 AM

I am the Seer. Phew, great! I thought I was getting paranoid. You used a lot the verb "see" when others would have said "find" or something, but that "to seereally" was the strongest clue (though you cleverly added some other typos to the same post).

I think it's a little odd that we lynch only Durelin today considering that we know that she's not the bear. I would have preferred a double lynching today to a mass suicide tomorrow. But now when Durelin already has four votes it's impossible.

++DURELIN

Sorry, girl.

The Saucepan Man

08-24-2005, 02:55 AM

... but that "to seereally" was the strongest clue (though you cleverly added some other typos to the same post)Hehe, good one Boro. I hadn't spotted it.

I believe that SamwiseGamgee is the only Villager who has not posted since Boromir88 uncloaked ( ;) ) himself. It seems to me that it is now most unlikely that Boro is not who he claims to be.

Had Samwise not voted for Durelin so early, we could (following Boro's revelation) have finished the Bear off today. That makes me suspicous of him.

Gamgee or not Gamgee, that is the question ... :D

I think it's a little odd that we lynch only Durelin today considering that we know that she's not the bear. I would have preferred a double lynching today to a mass suicide tomorrow.The risk there is that if we got it wrong, we would have only four Villagers tomorrow and (if the Bear went for option 2 identified in Plan C) only two on the final Day - one innocent and one Bear - which would, I believe result in a Bear victory.

I too would have preferred to leave as many innocents alive as possible and holding a mass lynching to-Morrow is regrettable. But it is the only way to ensure that the Beorning does not escape to kill again elsewhere.

++ DURELIN

Alas, poor Durelin, she played her role well.

I cannot be certain of the Bear, so I will probably not hunt to-Night. That means that I may die. If I do, then remember, fellow innocents:

If anyone else claims to be the Seer, lynch them. Then, if they were the Seer (highly unlikely, in my view), lynch Boromir88 the following Day.

Otherwise, vote according to Plan C, as set out in my post #416. It is important that each person does not simply vote for him/her-self, since that would allow the Bear to win by waiting until the end of the Day and then not voting. Known innocents should not be included in the vote and should not themselves vote.

The known innocent (Boromir88 if I am dead) should take the lead and set out, well in advance of the time for voting to begin, who is to vote for whom. Each innocent Villager should then make sure that they vote according to the agreed list.

Provided that all innocent Villagers follow the plan, then the only Villager (if any) who does not will be the Bear. Don't let that put you off. Follow the plan through unless you are absolutely sure of the Bear and can save innocent lives.

Adios. :smokin:

Boromir88

08-24-2005, 04:24 AM

Phew, great! I thought I was getting paranoid. You used a lot the verb "see" when others would have said "find" or something, but that "to seereally" was the strongest clue (though you cleverly added some other typos to the same post).
Yes, I did that intentionally, though I did not purposefully use the other typos...but hey having it be "clever" works. :D

If anyone else claims to be the Seer, lynch them. Then, if they were the Seer (highly unlikely, in my view), lynch Boromir88 the following Day.
I'm glad you have full faith in me :p .

Anyway, I can't believe I actually did get up this early...Before 6:30 is unheard of...

++Durelin

Boromir88

08-24-2005, 04:41 AM

I guess to not confuse things I should bold my vote...

++Durelin

Also, another reason for double posting is just a few final thoughts I had promised...

Saucepan- As said, known he was innocent since Night 2.

Dancing Spawn- Though I've never dreamed of her, I'm pretty confident she's innocent. As said, she's suspected me as the Seer for quite some time, and if she was the bear, and had any doubt I was the Seer, I would probably be dead by now.

Gurthang- Not too worried about him, as he did bring up the double-lynching idea.

So that leaves Samwise and Meneltarmacil.

I am most suspicious of Menel right now. It is odd how he suspects me as being the bear, yet doesn't vote for me. As if he was trying to keep me alive...to keep on being suspected? Then above that tries to set me up perhaps? I should have dreamed of him by now, but his old knighteth words, but not too confident now.

I can understand Durelin's votes/suspicions of myself (for kind of what Sauce said...thought I was the bear pretending to be the Seer. It was actually the other way around. I was the Seer pretending to look bearish, knowing the bear wouldn't kill me during the night as long as there wasn't some big public outcry for my lynching. So, I think it was more of a balancing act, trying to look suspicious, but not too suspicious). Anyway, which leads me to why I'm most suspicious of Menel...

I do find it odd he accuses me, then doesn't vote for me. Where Durelin atleast accuses me, then votes for me. It's like he's trying to keep me alive (since I was growing to being the suspected bear), but he didn't want to vote for me because to do so might give him away. So, sounds like he's been trying to set me up, turning you trusty villagers against me, when his hand in the matter doesn't get dirty. Trying to arouse suspicions, but not make himself incriminating enough to where he voted for me, and I would be lynched, obviously my identity would be revealed, and he could be facing some problems at thee gallows the next day.

I hope I didn't get lost in that jumbo back there but anyway...If I'm not alive tomorrow here's who I would vote for first, then so on...
1) Meneltarmacil
2) Samwise
3) Gurthang
4) Dancing Spawn (since she's not a guarantee, but I would vouch for her innocence, and if I'm wrong then I deserve to have all my medical instruments stuffed in me by the bear).

Good luck to ya'll if I don't get to speak to you again.

The Saucepan Man

08-24-2005, 04:42 AM

I'm glad you have full faith in me :p .I have 99% faith in you, let's put it that way. The remaining 1% is residual paranoia. ;)

The Saucepan Man

08-24-2005, 04:54 AM

As said, she's suspected me as the Seer for quite some time, and if she was the bear, and had any doubt I was the Seer, I would probably be dead by now.But the same might be said for Menel. If he is the Bear, and suspects that you are the Seer, why accuse you openly at all? Why not simply kill you over-Night? And dancing spawn might still be the Bear because, while she may have suspected that you were the Seer, she may also have not wanted to kill you in case you turned out to be the Hunter. Unlikely, perhaps. But possible.

I agree that Menel and Samwise Gamgee are the likeliest candidates. But I also think that the risk that neither of those is the Bear is too great. In my view, we should stick with Plan C to-Morrow in the continued absence of any certainty.

Boromir88

08-24-2005, 05:08 AM

And dancing spawn might still be the Bear because, while she may have suspected that you were the Seer, she may also have not wanted to kill you in case you turned out to be the Hunter. Unlikely, perhaps. But possible.
I'd agree with that.

But I also think that the risk that neither of those is the Bear is too great. In my view, we should stick with Plan C to-Morrow in the continued absence of any certainty.
True, there are to many "unknowns" it would be risky.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-24-2005, 05:32 AM

And dancing spawn might still be the Bear because, while she may have suspected that you were the Seer, she may also have not wanted to kill you in case you turned out to be the Hunter. Unlikely, perhaps. But possible. I wouldn't agree with that. :p

Anyway, if the next night doesn't change any plans, a mass lynching it is. Sad but effective.

Oddwen

08-24-2005, 05:58 AM

Enough bolded and double-crossed votes were cast to ensure that Durelin - felinest of cats - would DIE.

"Hooray!" she said. "At last! I just wish my poor Wolves were around to see this." And thus fell the only tear shed at her death.

They trundled her in a sack and then made the trip to the pirhana infested lake below, and threw her in. There was a furious bubbling, a froth of blood, and then Durelin popped back up.

"Two down, seven to go!" she said happily.

"Er...what?" said the Villagers.

"Well all cats have nine lives, sillies!" she cried clawing a few ankles. "Drowning and pirhana, is that the best you can do?"

So they stabbed her, beat her, hung her, burned her, froze her, suffocated her, and finally in desparation they quoted poetry at her.

"Aargh!" she cried at the last. "This is intolerable cruelty, this is!" and dropped dead.

Upon visiting her house, they discovered enormous amounts of doggy chewing toys and missing pictures of dogs drawn by Firefoot.

"Well," they said ruefully examining their pant legs, "That menace is over."

Living:

Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Gurthang
Meneltarmacil
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3
Gil-Galad (Werewolf) - Lynch'ed!! on DAY 3
Arcticstorm (Sherriff) - Touched by a ten foot pole on NIGHT 4
Wilwarin (Villager) - This fine specimen displayed on NIGHT 4
Laitaine (Werewolf) - Boo hoo hoo, Wolves are through. DAY 4
Lalaith (Villager) - Verily and forsooth, she was crushed on NIGHT 5
Nonnacedak (Villager) - Went to sleep with the fishes on DAY 5
littlemanpoet (Villager) - Baked into doughnuts, with sprinkles on NIGHT 6
Durelin (Cobbler) - Drowned, eaten, stabbed, beaten, hung, burned, frozen, suffocated and quoted at on DAY 6

Oddwen

08-24-2005, 05:58 AM

Oddwen

08-25-2005, 05:57 AM

The Villagers awoke to a lack of sound.

What was it they were missing?

The early morning meowing of Durelin? No...

The early morning ranting of LMP? No...

That was it! The ever-growing squeakings of the long-deceased CaptainofDespair's shrews! They were no longer squeaking.

They made their way over to his Shrewbarn, chatting about the voting that was to happen later that day. Then, entering the barn, they stopped short.

The body of Boromir88 lay in the middle of the paddock, his face eaten away by the hungry shrews. (There's nothing that shrews like more than a nice face.)

Strangely, his eyes were still intact, even though the only thing shrews like better than a nice face is a nice eyeball.

"Um," one Villager offered, "Maybe his eyes were magic?"

"Maybe his eyes just didn't taste good," said a more sensible headed Villager.

Well, whatever the case, B88 was dead. No more would they have the benefit of his dreams - only ones past.

Living:

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Gurthang
Meneltarmacil
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3
Gil-Galad (Werewolf) - Lynch'ed!! on DAY 3
Arcticstorm (Sherriff) - Touched by a ten foot pole on NIGHT 4
Wilwarin (Villager) - This fine specimen displayed on NIGHT 4
Laitaine (Werewolf) - Boo hoo hoo, Wolves are through. DAY 4
Lalaith (Villager) - Verily and forsooth, she was crushed on NIGHT 5
Nonnacedak (Villager) - Went to sleep with the fishes on DAY 5
littlemanpoet (Villager) - Baked into doughnuts, with sprinkles on NIGHT 6
Durelin (Cobbler) - Drowned, eaten, stabbed, beaten, hung, burned, frozen, suffocated and quoted at on DAY 6
Boromir88 (Seer) - He didn't seereally what was coming on NIGHT 7

DAY 7 begins now. Gentlepeople, start your gallows. *vroom, vrooooooom!*

The Saucepan Man

08-25-2005, 06:27 AM

Alas poor Boromir88, he willingly gave his life for the Village. Not that there is much left of the Village ... :(

Unfortunately, the only way to guarantee that we stop the dastardly Black Beorning in his (or her) tracks is to carry through the mass lynch plan. We could lynch one person to-Day and one more to-Morrow. Or we could go for a double lynching to-Day. Either way, if we get it wrong, we're doomed and the Bear goes free.

Being a cautious soul, I would rather go for the guaranteed kill. But, since I am the only known innocent (as proved beyond all doubt by Boromir88's death and confirmation as the Seer) and therefore will not be the one doing the dying, we should only do it if at least three out of the four others that remain agree.

If we do, then I suggest the voting goes as follows:

The Saucepan Man does not vote.
Dancing spawn votes for Gurthang.
Gurthang votes for Meneltarmacil.
Meneltarmacil votes for Samwise Gamgee.
Samwise Gamgee votes for dancing spawn.

It is regrettable, but the best way in my opinion.

But please - no voting until all have had an opportunity to be heard.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-25-2005, 07:04 AM

As you said, Saucy, it's regrettable but we cannot guarantee our victory in any other way. Well, except, you can always leave me alive and lynch only Gurthang, Menel and Samwise, but somehow I don't see that happening. :p

You know, it would be very decent of the bear if he (yes, he) just surrendered so we wouldn't have to kill everybody. But, of course, I'm asking too much.

Meneltarmacil

08-25-2005, 07:09 AM

I agree withe thee as welle, SpM. Ye Beare muste be stopped, even if it meaneth our deathes. This Knighte is prepared to die for ye village.

Gurthang

08-25-2005, 09:09 AM

Poor Boromir. He was always rather insightful, but in a not-so-obvious way. At least he was able to give us an innocent before he died. (I also wonder what became of CaptaionofDespair's shrews? ;) )

It is rather sad that our village will be reduced to one person after today. I almost feel it would be better to leave a couple of people so that we have a village left rather than just a person. But that being said, no one will trust anyone now except Saucepan Man, so I think we are going to have to do the mass lynching.

Just in case: I may not be on much toDay(college life and all). I don't know if you want to start voting without me or wait on me; that's up to Saucepan Man. Also if we do end up with just a double lynching, which is unlikely, I am more suspicious of SamwiseGamgee and Meneltarmacil than dancing spawn, so I would support lynching the two of them. But as I said, nobody trusts anyone, so that is unlikely.

The Saucepan Man

08-25-2005, 09:40 AM

It is rather sad that our village will be reduced to one person after today. I almost feel it would be better to leave a couple of people so that we have a village left rather than just a person.Indeed. I shall be quite lonely all on my own! Perhaps I shall move on in search of more foul lycanthropes to despatch, now that I am better acquainted with their ways.

Three Villagers have now signified their consent to the mass lynching plan. I don't think we need wait for SamwiseGamgee. Please could everyone now vote in accordance with the directions set out in my first post of today (#434). Remember, all innocent Villagers must follow this plan if it is to be successful.

The only way that the Bear can survive to-Day is to vote for someone other than his "assigned" Villager. If he (or she) does that, we lose an innocent to-Day, an innocent over-Night (probably me) and the remaining two innocents can kill him (or her) off to-Morrow.

I can always come in with a late vote and save the innocents if the identity of the Bear becomes clear during the course of to-Day.

Ask not what your Village can do for you, but what you can do for your Village. :D

Meneltarmacil

08-25-2005, 10:59 AM

Alrighte. Let's put this plan into actione.

++SamwiseGamgee

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-25-2005, 01:04 PM

C'est la vie.

++GURTHANG

SamwiseGamgee

08-25-2005, 05:22 PM

Guys, I am an innocent villager. Of this you may all be sure- I give you leave to do that! :p

So, as I cast my vote in accordance with the wisdom of our glorious hunter-leader, Saucepan Man, I can't help but wonder if Gurthang would've been the right guy to lynch on day 1. Or maybe Menel or dancing spawn are just resigned to their fate! As my vote-winner said, c'est la vie!

++ dancing spawn of ungoliant

p.s.- this is pretty hit or miss, but I think dancing spawn's the bear- the "c'est la vie" has convinced me.

The Saucepan Man

08-26-2005, 04:08 AM

Where is Gurthang, I wonder? There may be good reason for his delay, but it seems suspicious to me.

As matters stand, Menel and I will survive. If Menel is the Bear then, if it stays like that, he will prevail. But Gurthang will surely wish to prevent that if he is innocent. On the other hand, if Gurthang is the Bear, he will die in any event if matters stay as they are.

If Gurthang has not voted for Menel by shortly before the end of the Day, then I shall be forced to do so. I shall give advanced warning to avoid any danger of cross-posting.

SamwiseGamgee

08-26-2005, 05:33 AM

Oh dear, this isn't looking too good. Best of luck to you, SpM, I hope you time it right. *bites fingernails*

The Saucepan Man

08-26-2005, 05:44 AM

I hereby give notice that I shall vote for Meneltarmacil 10 minutes from now.

Gurthang - if you are innocent, do not vote for Meneltarmacil unless you have already done so by the time you read this message.

Fellow innocent Villagers - if Gurthang votes for Meneltarmacil having had opportunity to heed this warning, he is the Bear. No doubt, he hoped to cross-vote with me, survive one more Day and try to pass it off as an innocent mistake.

The Saucepan Man

08-26-2005, 05:55 AM

On second thoughts, if I vote for Menel and Gurthang is the Bear, he will vote for me, thus ensuring a total bloodbath.

I have no option. Let’s finish this now!

++ GURTHANG

If I am wrong in this, I will no doubt die to-Night and you will have to choose wisely to-Morrow.

If I am right, then all but the Bear will survive.

Oo-er! :D

Gurthang

08-26-2005, 05:55 AM

Originally posted by SamwiseGamgee
this is pretty hit or miss, but I think dancing spawn's the bear

Originally posted by The Saucepan Man
I agree that Menel and Samwise Gamgee are the likeliest candidates.

Originally posted by Boromir88
Gurthang- Not too worried about him, as he did bring up the double-lynching idea.

Hidden 'til the end; little good it did me though. :mad:

Allow me to explain myself. So that in your dying breathes you may know why this has befallen you all.

I was able to hide my hideous secret for a very long time. Long before I lived in this village, I've been cursed to walk the night as a bear. I tried to do no harm to anyone, and always thought of it as a curse. Yet I watched you constantly harass and even kill harmless creatures, who I felt were my sole duty to protect. But there were too many of you, and many of my little friends died. I was almost to the end of my rope, but then the last straw came. The wolves caused you to push me over the edge.

On that fateful night, when those ferocious wolves came into our peaceful village, it was all too clear what I had to do. I was revealed for not watching my step(I still feel bad about that chicken), and I knew that I was in grave danger, as well as the wolves I felt I should be defending. So I suggested trying to end the situation peacefully, and you almost lynched me for it! That is when I decided to eradicate this village. It became my new responsibility to insure that none of you could ever harm animals again. So I took my 'curse' and used it against you. Aided by those bumbling wolves, I intended to finish off this cursed little town.

Yet above all, I curse you Saucepan Man. You mercilous, malevelant, murderous Hunter! It brings me great regret that I will not see your death before this all has ended. I should have killed you at the beginning, yet I felt compelled to keep you around to defend me. Even as of yesterday, I had hope to acheive my objective, yet your choice of not Hunting bereft me of that last possibility. In the end it has meant my death.

++Samwise Gamgee

And so it comes down to this. With this vote, I will have accomplished my goal except three. And to those of you who survive, I say go and spread the word. Wherever creatures are persecuted, wherever they are unloved, wherever they are killed, remember: WereBears walk the night!

So now I say come at me. I will take one of you to death with me. Let's end this! :mad:

The Saucepan Man

08-26-2005, 06:04 AM

Foul words from a foul beast of the Night.

Yet I salute you. You offered fine sport. :p ;)

I am sorry Samwise that you must die too as we once and for all lay this wretched creature to rest.

Oddwen

08-26-2005, 06:06 AM

Two villagers would die today. SamGam and Gurth had attracted two votes each.

"Wait a minute," they wondered. "Why do we have to kill Sam if Gurthang has already confessed?"

"The Votes have to be upheld, otherwise people could go lynched and unlynched willy-nilly," explained SpM.

"Gosh, you seem to be awfully gleeful."

"Enough!" roared Gurthang. "I can't stand it anymore!" And with another roar, he changed shape! He became larger than any bear they had ever heard tell of, and also a tad hairier than they were sure was usual.

He ripped the head off of SamGam, and then turned towards The Hunter Man.

"You!" he boomed, and then charged.

SpM waited until he was almost too close for comfort, and then shot one arrow through the bear's eye.

Then he had to leap out of the way, because even a dead bear once in motion doesn't stop until it hits a solid object, which in this case turned out to be the mountain face.

The Villagers started to rejoice, but then paused. What was that rumbling?

Then a crack appeared in the mountain. With screams of terror, they threw themselves down the slope of the valley, fairly flying over the snow-encrusted fields in their fury.

Wonder of wonders, they outflew an avalanche. But Hamlet was lost forever.

"Ah well!" they said. "There will be other Villages!"

VILLAGERS WIN!

(Oddwen finally gets it right!)

Gurthang

08-26-2005, 06:19 AM

Well, I must say I played that rather poorly. Mainly my descision to leave Saucepan and Boromir alive so long. Saucepan, I must say that was a fantastice game you just played. :D

See I had it all worked out; there were three possibilities right there at the end.

1) Sauce votes me- I expected him to notice that Menel had voted with the set plan where I had yet to do, thus pointing him out as innocent. Knowing this, I was still planning on getting up very early in a vain hope to tie.

2) Sauce votes Menel- I was very happy when I saw that this is what Saucepan said he would do. It meant I could vote him and at least get a stalemate. (That is why I had to edit the ending. I was waiting with my 'stalemate' one ready to go, and I just posted it as soon as I saw that he had voted. I apologize, especially to Oddwen. Sorry. :( )

3)Sauce doesn't vote- This one, I didn't see happening really. I still had an ending prepared. I would have voted Saucepan and at least seen him die before the end. (I'm kinda mad that SamwiseGamgee didn't die in that finale! ;) Maybe he will, I think Oddy's writing.) That would still leave Menel for a villager victory.

But alas, our beloved Sauce realized the possibilities nigh to the end, and saved the village. Congratulations to all on a great game! I've really enjoyed my first, and being the first Werebear at that!

Oddwen

08-26-2005, 06:30 AM

Congratulations, all, to a game well-played! :D Especially to Gurth and SpM, sorry Gurth, I really wanted to see you win. ;)

(Apologies for that last post...I read "Saucepan Man" instead of "Samwise Gamgee" and it escalated from there)

Hmm, one thing I would change in the future would be the Cobbler. This role shouldn't be allowed to outlive the Wolves.

The Saucepan Man

08-26-2005, 06:31 AM

Maybe he will, I think Oddy's writing.Oh I do hope so. I have been looking forward to the grand finale ...

EDIT: 'Tis done. Thanks Oddie, and thank you also for a great job of moderating. Apologies for my interminably lengthy discourses on who I should Hunt. :rolleyes:

Saucepan, I must say that was a fantastice game you just played. Kind words, but rather over-stating the case, I fear. Were it not for me, CaptainofDespair and Nonnacedak might well have survived being lynched. I think that Durelin got it just about right:

SaucepanMan says too much, and really has no idea what he's doing.And now, at last, I can use it in my sig, as I have been wanting to do so for the past week or so. :D

But alas, our beloved Sauce realized the possibilities nigh to the end ...That was a very close run thing. I ran through all the possibilities and options in my head last Night, in case you did not show up to vote until the end. But that one eluded me until the very last moment ... :rolleyes:

I am glad that it did not come down to a mass lynching in the end. I am not a fan of the tactic. But I am very competitive, and so could not turn up what was in this game a valid stratagem.

More thoughts later.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

08-26-2005, 06:34 AM

Hooray! I was already prepared to die but surviving is just much more fun. For a moment I thought that we were all doomed but all's well that ends well or something like that. I am glad that it did not come down to a mass lynching in the end. I am not a fan of the tactic. Yeah, me neither.

Now, let's build a bar and go celebrating! :D

Thanks everyone, this was a really enjoyable game!

Gurthang

08-26-2005, 06:52 AM

Originally posted by Oddwen
Hmm, one thing I would change in the future would be the Cobbler. This role shouldn't be allowed to outlive the Wolves.

Or perhaps you should say that the Cobbler is for the wolves, but also against the village, so that they can still be on the Bear's team if it comes down to that. I have to admit, Durelin's coming into the open spawned a chain of confession that really sealed my fate.

Originally posted by Durelin
SaucepanMan says too much, and really has no idea what he's doing

Maybe, but you know who did have it right? Firefoot, way back on Day 2!

Originally posted by Firefoot (post #182)
Slightly random aside - I just started thinking again about why a bear would kill Alcarillo. Alcarillo only ever really indicated two other people besides Mithalwen to be suspicious - Gurthang and LMP (who he thinks is suspicious just for the early vote). His posts #48 and #60 are of note. Post #48 he decides Gurthang is pretty suspicious, then in #60 he changes his mind. Perhaps Gurthang is the were-bear? I'm not particularly convinced, but it's food for thought.

She deserves a lot of credit for figuring that out so early.(Well, at least saying she figured it out. ;) ) I knew I couldn't kill her or it would be obvious, but I didn't have to worry, the wolves did it for me! Lucky!

By the way, does anyone else find it ironic that this game lasted almost three weeks and then came down to a single descision in the last five minutes!

Meneltarmacil

08-26-2005, 07:17 AM

Well, it seems that the wolves' voting for you on the first Day led us to not suspect you for almost the whole rest of the game, Gurthang. Since we thought you were an innocent wolf victim, we didn't pay you a lot of attention when we were going after the Bear and as a result, you would have won if it hadn't been for our good Saucepan Man and his plan. Congratulations for surviving this long.

mormegil

08-26-2005, 07:36 AM

A well played and well modded game to all. It's still enjoyable to watch from the sidelines, but it is , of course, much better to play the whole thing through. Hopefully I haven't taken over Eomer cursed position for dying on the first day. :rolleyes: ;)

I think Boromir deserves a lot of credit too. He survived fairly long and when he saw that it was probable that he would die he sacrificed himself so as to pass on the information he had to the village.

The Saucepan Man

08-26-2005, 08:12 AM

First, a rather embarassing statistic:

Who Posted?
Total Posts: 455

User Name Posts
The Saucepan Man 77
Boromir88 39
dancing spawn of ungoliant 38
Gurthang 35
Meneltarmacil 34
SamwiseGamgee 32
Lalaith 30
Durelin 23
littlemanpoet 22
Oddwen 18
Nonnacedak 17
arcticstorm 14
Laitaine 13
wilwarin538 11
Firefoot 10
CaptainofDespair 9
Gil-Galad 8
Mithalwen 8
mormegil 6
Alcarillo 6
Encaitare 4
Shelob 1 I fear that rather substantiates Durelin's statement. :D

I am way too competitive. I have pages and pages of notes and spent far too long pondering over who to vote for during the Day and who to Hunt at Night. As Oddie can testify, I generally bored her silly with my theorising when PM'ing her with my Nightly Hunting targets.

My Hunt "victims" were as follows:

Night 2 - Alcarillo (I think - I didn't keep the PM)
Night 3 - Gil-Galad
Night 4 - dancing spawn of ungoliant
Night 5 - Laitaine
Night 6 - Meneltarmacil
Night 7 - SamwiseGamgee
Night 8 - No Hunter target

So, I didn't do too badly with the picking the Wolves (and neither did the Village generally), but I was hopless at spotting the Bear. Gurthang was very low down my suspect list until the very last Day, although I had him down as the Cobbler at one point.

I started dropping off hints that I was the Hunter right from the beginning (although they largely seem to have gone unnoted - I thought I was being too unsubtle). As the game progressed, I became convinced that the Werebeasts had picked up on my hints (which was not my original intention), largely due to my continued survival. I therfore tried to use this against them by naming my main suspects at the end of each Day. If I survived the Night, this would then strengthen my belief in their guilt. This worked, to an extent, with the Wolves (although I really should have stuck to my original instinct with Gil-Galad :rolleyes: ). But it failed to flush out the Bear, largely because (after Day 1) Gurthang did very little to arouse suspicion.

It meant that I could not protect the Seer as much as I would have liked, but Boromir88 did a pretty good job of concealing himself. And I agree that his noble self-sacrifice went a long way towards securing the Villagers' victory. Although, I did manage to nearly blow it at the end!

I actually like the way that the Cobbler role worked out. Durelin became a bit of a wild card once the Wolves were all dead - her revelation of her role (albeit ambiguous) did help the Village, but it also meant that we had to "waste" a Day lynching her. It would, however, had helped very little without some known innocents being around. And had she been on the Werebear's side following the Wolves' demise, it would have made Gurthang almost impossible to track down. I think that, once the Wolves all die, it is fair to allow the Cobbler to decide how to play it.

The Black Beorning was a great addition. As it turned out, this more or less divided the game into two parts, which worked very well. Before we began, I feared that the Beorning would have little chance of winning. But, played well (as Gurthang did), he is very difficult to spot with any degree of confidence. Basically, he can vote and kill almost with impunity and without leaving much of a trail.

All in all, it was a great game. I really enjoyed it, and so my thanks go to all involved - and most particularly Oddwen for a great job mod(wen)ing and for some extremely entertaining "death" scenes. I was quite chuffed to be the one to light Gil-Galad's pyre, even though I did not vote for him.

PS Still loving littlemanpoet's "rant". :D

Durelin

08-26-2005, 08:33 AM

That's the most fun I've had in a long while! :D

And sorry, Gurthang...but when The Suiceman Pan (hehe) pinned me like that, I had to go down with at least a little bit of my honor left. Besides, you helped kill my wolves. :p

Thank you all for such a great game (except maybe you wolves, *cough*...;))! Thank you especially to Saucie for being such fun, especially as the taker of most of my pointless abuse.

Thank you to CaptainofDespair who really made my lengthy survival possible. I knew they'd lynch you anyway.

A thousand thanks to Oddwen Moddwen for putting up with us all.

Oh, and thanks to Morm and Saucie for giving me another green box! *rejoices* I doubt my deserving of it, but it is quite pretty.

And...I gave myself away quite early in the game, actually. And not just by my behavior.

And just as a note, remember that cats don't wear shoes.
EDIT:
Hmm, one thing I would change in the future would be the Cobbler. This role shouldn't be allowed to outlive the Wolves.
Wha?! Noooooooooo!

The Saucepan Man

08-26-2005, 08:46 AM

I must say that I agree with those who have expressed elsewhere some dissatisfaction with the scope for mass lynchings. I was hesitant to suggest it, and even considered going back on the plan on the last Day. But I wanted to win and so opted for what I saw as a legitimate and seemingly effective plan.

As it happened, we did not end up with a mass lynching and, had I followed the plan through as I intially thought I should, it would have spelled disaster for the Village. But it is nevertheless true that, had the plan not been devised and then, for the most part, put into effect, Gurthang would probably have won. Menel and Samwise would probably have been the final Days' lynchees.

I have no objection to multiple/mass lynchings being banned in a game if that is what the moderator or players prefer. This could easily be done either by allowing retractable votes (which would make a planned mass lynching impracticable) or by simply having a rule that, in the event of a tie in the lynch vote, one Villager will be picked at random.

Encaitare

08-26-2005, 09:08 AM

Nice playing, everyone! Sauce, I'm glad you weren't the bear like everyone said... your lists were just too helpful to lose by lynching you. ;)

I feel kind of smart, because I caught the "seereally" clue... of course, I was dead by then, so not much I could do.

Great job modding, Odderator!

Gurthang

08-26-2005, 09:43 AM

One thing I'm still kicking myself for was that 'seereally' clue. I saw it and thought 'Hey, maybe that's the Seer'. But somewhere in the course of reading or thinking it slipped my mind. Blast me and my forgetfullness!

As far as that mass lynching goes, I first suggested it to try to pass off as innocent. Unfortunately you guys called my 'bluff', if you could even call it that, and decided to do it. I thought maybe I could tweak it so that I could still survive, or at least get a tie, but there were too many people left. *sigh*

Still, that was a fun game, especially being my first. And I must say that adding the Bear really spices things up a bit. Considering this would have been over by Day 4 if we didn't have the extra Were. Which I was serious when I was congratulating the villagers for killing all the wolves so quickly. That was mighty impressive.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

08-26-2005, 09:44 AM

Good game everyone! I enjoyed watching it. Gurthang was tremendous at keeping under the radar, and Hear Ye, Hear Ye!, Menel's posts were highly entertaining. :D

I get the feeling that, after past disappointments, Sauce was adamant that he would win this game; he really took charge of the village. And I suppose that he was ever so glad to finally get a special role. :)

Great comic deaths, Oddwen.

The Saucepan Man

08-26-2005, 09:46 AM

Which I was serious when I was congratulating the villagers for killing all the wolves so quickly. That was mighty impressive.As the Bear, would you rather that they had stayed around for longer? I suppose that it would have increased your chances, but they might well have targetted you over-Night.

The Saucepan Man

08-26-2005, 09:54 AM

I get the feeling that, after past disappointments, Sauce was adamant that he would win this game; he really took charge of the village. And I suppose that he was ever so glad to finally get a special role.I was overjoyed when I was assigned the Hunter role. It has a lot of scope, beyond just the "one free shot" when lynched or attacked.

My main aim at the outset was to avoid attracting too much suspicion and therefore being lynched. That was what happened in the last game that I played, because I was instrumental in lynching the Seer on Day 1 and then another innocent on Day 2. Once an innocent Villager is under sustained suspicion, it is very difficult to have much of an influence over what happens and I wanted to be very much involved in this game.

Gurthang

08-26-2005, 09:56 AM

The strange thing about that, Saucepan, is that I was for some reason really afraid that they would kill me that exact Night. I don't know why, but I just had a feeling the wolf(Laitaine) was going to kill me. I was rather releived to have that fear gone. I guess a couple more nights of two kills would have helped me, but I think I was just as afraid about surviving the night as most of the villagers!

Another note; about that first day. Long before I knew I was going to be the Bear, I had decided on the whole animal rights activist thing. I had planned to get up very early and put in my little 'speech' before anyone else could post. Then when I was told I was the Bear, I almost backed out of the plan. Yet I had already told everyone my occupation, so I did it anyway. And it actually worked for good. Not only did it buy me a lot of time(acting suspicious + convincing of innocence = no more suspicion for a long time), but it actually flushed out a Wolf!

I was afraid at first that you were all going to lynch me. What a great first Bear that would have been: Lynched on Day 1! :rolleyes:

littlemanpoet

08-26-2005, 10:00 AM

Funnest game I've played yet, and to think I almost missed it. At first I was extremely frustrated not to be believed by anyone, just about everybody reading duplicity into my words. After I ranted, I began to see that it could be used to my (and the village's) advantage. But even then I didn't play very well. :p

Concerning mass lynchings, maybe this sports analogy helps explain my view. Think of the old days of Bobby Knight's Indiana Hoosiers college basketball team. The game might be incredibly close, but the two guards, with five minutes left to play, would just dribble the ball and pass back and forth between each other until the opponents' frustration mounted and one of the guards got fouled. To the foul line, and back in play until the guards do it again. Or some teams actually put up with the frustration because their coaches would discipline them if they didn't, and finally in the last 15 seconds, they'd make a desperation foul, sending the Hoosiers to the line, and game on a knife-edge, but the Hoosiers were incredible foul shooters because ol' Bobby banked on this strategy game in and game out. Finally the NCAA established the 25 second rule, ending Bobby's incredible win streak. Bobby's ploy stopped the game from being good basketball and instead became the Bobby Knight show. Nobody liked it except for the state of Indiana.

So if you have a mass lynching plan in this game, you've ALMOST guaranteed your win, but you've curtailed the spirit of the game. That's my problem with it.

Multiple lynchings (like 2 maybe 3) I don't like much better, for the same reasons.

Consider this: if this really happened, the village's primary concern would be saving as many lives as reasonably possible. Lynching more than one victim a day would go against that. Yes, one might argue that getting the werebeast is worth the price of multiple lives, because then the evil has been destroyed, but this should still be done with great trepidation, and I think that a moderator, if allowing multiple lynchings, should have some kind of consequence built into the game, with more teeth than "a boring death".

Menel, I thought for sure you were the werebear right up until Gurthang admitted it.

Hmmmm.... so I did get something right after all, but wouldn't you figure it'd be by mistake! :p

The Saucepan Man

08-26-2005, 10:08 AM

I sympathise with your view, LMP, but, as far as I am concerned, if it's legal then its available. As I stated earlier, if it is felt to be undesirable, then it can be prevented by a few simple rule changes.

Consider this: if this really happened, the village's primary concern would be saving as many lives as reasonably possible. Lynching more than one victim a day would go against that.I think that it can be viewed as credible if one looks at the wider picture - the Villagers are sacrificing themselves to prevent the Werecreature moving on to another Village. Thus, more lives are saved in the long run. Remember, the Hunter is the sworn enemy of these beasts, so it is fitting that he would want to prevent them escaping to cause further harm, even at the cost of the remaining Villagers' lives.

arcticstorm

08-26-2005, 11:36 AM

I have no objection to multiple/mass lynchings being banned in a game if that is what the moderator or players prefer. This could easily be done either by allowing retractable votes (which would make a planned mass lynching impracticable) or by simply having a rule that, in the event of a tie in the lynch vote, one Villager will be picked at random.

I find that it would add a little more strategy to the game if for ties no one was lynched.

I would like to congratualte everyone for a great game played. I was dissappointed about the last day's lynching strategy, pretty much causing the wear things to acheive their goal by killing everyone, but I am glad that it only came down to two deaths.

If I recall correctly, right before I revealed myself, LMP thought I was too quiet. I wanted to give him a defense that was ooc to let him notice that I have been a member for 1 year now, and just recently got to 100 posts, at the time I still hadn't. And I wanted to point out that it took me over a month or two to even get 1 post, even though I was on the downs daily for an hour or two after school and another hour and a half at 9:00 every night.

All of the villagers, including LMP, played a great game. I do not see why you say you didn't. hence the reason for my emphasis of your name. And Gurthang, after I was lynched, this may be a little bad to say, being a sherriff and all, I was rooting for the bear even though I had no clue who he/she might be.

Laitaine

08-26-2005, 12:17 PM

Well played, all. I must say this was one really, really fun game. Even when I was killed, it was still fun to watch. Gurthang, I honestly had no idea that you were the werebear. I too thought you were just one of us wolves' innocent victims :-D

This was also the most mentally challenging thing I've ever done. Not only was I trying to figure out who was who, but I was also trying to do it in rhyme! This game has actually helped me to think on my feet, when it comes to poetry. I can write verse fairly quickly now, which is kind of fun. :-)

Saucepan Man, well played. I picked up that you were the Hunter maybe on Day 3 and of course, was afraid to kill you. I certainly wanted to take you out because you are one really, REALLY clever player, but since you accused so many people (myself and Gil included), I was afraid to kill you should I be your choice for the Hunting. That was my downfall--allowing you to live. Don't you feel special. :-D

I was almost positive LMP was the Cobbler until, of course, he died. You defended me quite a bit, my fellow poet! I was sure you had figured it out and were trying to protect me. :-D Durelin, did you know who the wolves were or did you have no clue at all?

Well, I hope you all enjoyed the poetry *shakes head, laughing* It may be a long time before I ever try to take on such a difficult task again. I hope it was amusing, at the very least. Thanks to all who gave me reputation points!

littlemanpoet

08-26-2005, 12:39 PM

Arcticstorm, my comment about your being quiet was strictly in terms of gameplay, and compared to others (like <ahem> SPM :D. I thought you played a great game, and made a noble sacrifice, although I did think that you fessed up your role a bit quicker than you needed to; after all, you did have defenders who were accusing me because I accused you. Now, didn't that make me feel frustrated! ;)

Laitaine, I must admit that I played this game (despite others' kind words to the contrary) with my heart instead of my head. Compare my rabidness in this game to, say, IV, when I was a werewolf. Just ask Feanor of the Peredhilhow reasonable I was in that one! She actually called me out to show some emotion! So I defended you because you were a poet, and I really meant it. Cobbler! I hated that role before this game; now I love it. Once I quit being so "freakin' frustrated" over being suspected by everything by everybody (LOL), I really got a kick out of it. I am indeed most impressed that you kept up the versing while a werewolf. I couldn't pull that off..... and I was only shooting for doggerel!

Hamlet is lost beneath molten ashes,
leaving no sign of lycanthropic disaster;
may wizards be found who can magically master
the werewolvish scourge and Beorning slashes.

Durelin

08-26-2005, 01:31 PM

Durelin, did you know who the wolves were or did you have no clue at all?
I admit that I really had no idea! I just didn't try too hard to get anyone lynched. :p

Lalaith

08-26-2005, 01:41 PM

Gurthang my friend, it was a good job you killed me when you did, as not only did it save our Seer for another night - it turned out the internet access at my hotel was fairly limited and I'd have had a hard time participating as fully as I'd have liked.
And LMP, I'm sorry I kept accusing you of being the Cobbler. I was absolutely convinced, it all fitted together so well...but your rant is even funnier, albeit pathos-ridden, now that I know you were telling the truth.
Well played everyone - cigars all round! :smokin:

Boromir88

08-26-2005, 03:31 PM

It was a very well played game to everyone.

Despite your loss Gurthang, I think you played the role well, there just wasn't much you could have done at the end. After Day 1 everyone just really assumed you were in character and were innocent. Well played, but with the nice plan Saucepan came up with, it pretty much assured your loss. Still a well played game.

mormegil, thank you for the compliments. :)

Well my dreams went like this...The thing is it seemed like anybody I dreamed of that night who was innocent, ended up dying that night, so it never really benefitted me or the village at all...except SpM that is.

Night 1- mormegil, more of just a random pick and my small accusation of him during the day I never saw as progressing much.

Night 2- Saucepan, I too got concerned as I saw him sort of taking control, just wanted to make sure what side he was on. Now, I wish I wouldn't have wasted that night, as I can see he left plenty of clues for his innocence, and the "Lets hunt some bear" that he was definitely the hunter. Well played Mr. SpM

Night 3- Gil-galad, if you notice the following day that was the only time I really made a suspect list. Because I had found Gil-galad that night to be a wolf. Though I did start pinning people down to certain roles towards the end of the game, in the beginning I did not want to list suspects just in case if I would die, because for the first couple days I was not on to anything and did not want to lead people astray. Then I found of Gil-galad's treachery, hence the first time making the suspect list.

Night 4- Wilwarin, sadly she died that night, so again didn't benefit anything.

Night 5- Nonnacedak, tried to save his life as he was going under suspicion, but I didn't want to draw too much attention to me as it could reveal who I was.

Night 6- Durelin, this night I contemplated between Durelin and Gurthang, and wish I chose my second choice. As Durelin was the Cobbler, and Gurthang was the true one we were going for.

Night 7- Meneltarmacil, he was really the most suspicious as again Gurthang managed to just pass through my dream again. He always seemed to sort of slip under, even after I began suspecting him again. Sorry I doubted you Menel.

It's glad to see the village has won, there are a few things I would try to do differently but overall I was pleased with the way I played my first wolf game. I wish I would have went with my earliest suspicions going into night 5 on Gurthang, but decided to choose Durelin, luckily this mistake did not cost the death of the village.

Again, well played to all.

mormegil

08-26-2005, 03:39 PM

One thing that I have wanted to know for a while now is why did the wolves kill me? It would be great to hear from the wolves on their thoughts and conversations.

Gurthang

08-26-2005, 03:40 PM

Actually, Lalaith, I misread LMP posts and thought that you were the Seer! When I found that you weren't, I was kinda mad at him; I think that's part of why I chose him next. That was another bad play of mine, I should have taken out the leaders of the village: Saucepan, but maybe Boromir. Those two misled kills probably were the worst choices I made in this game. :rolleyes: Aw, well, we all can't have a brain in our heads. :D

Gil-Galad

08-26-2005, 03:52 PM

i would have laughed if SauceMan was a Bear... if he was it would be a perfect cover-up

wilwarin538

08-26-2005, 03:58 PM

That was a lot of fun. I wish I could have lived longer.*Gives Gurthang the evil eye :mad: * You all played very well. :D

Gil-Galad

08-26-2005, 04:04 PM

Mith and Laitaine chose most of the vilalgers too kill, i chose Mormegil after Mith got lynched just for the fun of it, plus Mormegil has a history of going after me

Meneltarmacil

08-26-2005, 04:30 PM

Night 7- Meneltarmacil, he was really the most suspicious as again Gurthang managed to just pass through my dream again. He always seemed to sort of slip under, even after I began suspecting him again. Sorry I doubted you Menel. That's OK. I'll admit my actions were a little suspicious. I got lured onto the CaptainofDespair bandwagon mainly because of Saucepan's and your posts, and I did vote for people that others suspected, mainly because I had either come to the same conclusions myself (as in the case of Gil-Galad) or others' arguments were convincing enough and I was out of ideas.

wilwarin538

08-26-2005, 04:42 PM

Oddwen Moddwen I have a question. What was the point of my dying words? :confused:

Originally posted by Moddwen
But all she said was "Tell the Mormegil that Wilwarin is here", and then she died.

Was it purely for my confusion?

Lalaith

08-26-2005, 04:48 PM

Dying words of Finduilas....kind of....

Lalaith

08-26-2005, 05:08 PM

Oh, and I realised I'd been mistaken for the Seer, I was glad I died in a good cause.
Once an innocent Villager is under sustained suspicion, it is very difficult to have much of an influence over what happens
Tell me about it, SaucepanMan. :rolleyes:

wilwarin538

08-26-2005, 06:38 PM

Dying words of Finduilas....kind of....

A yes, of course. Silly me. :rolleyes:

mormegil

08-26-2005, 06:47 PM

Mith and Laitaine chose most of the vilalgers too kill, i chose Mormegil after Mith got lynched just for the fun of it, plus Mormegil has a history of going after me

So more or less a personal vendetta? Past games have no relection upon whether or not I suspect somebody in the current game. I think this is basically a rule that is unwritten but all adhere to.

The Saucepan Man

08-26-2005, 07:03 PM

Tell me about it, SaucepanMan.Well, my suspicions of you did lessen. And I had half a mind to you possibly being the Seer. Despite in being "in character", the reference in your first post to foresight got me thinking (always a dangerous thing ... ).

Well, I have assembled some edited highlights of my copious notes. Some of the comments are rather amusing with the benefit of hindsight, so I thought that I'd share them. Italicised comments have been added ex post facto.

Day 1

#1 Gurthang defends Werewolves - but just ‘in character’ comments. Or intentionally acting suspiciously? Cobbler?
#9 lmp votes hastily for Gurthang. Perhaps he cannot post again this Day. But why then just not vote?
#14 Enca is antagonistic - intentionally suspicious - Cobbler?
#26 Mithalwen defends her forced voting pattern rather too forcefully, given what I said.

Day 2

#84 Lalaith asks whether the Seer can identify the Bear (answer – yes) – might she be the Seer? Or the Bear? (That comment got me thinking about Lalaith being the Seer too.)
#94 Gil-Galad does little to defend himself – strange if he is a Wolf. Cobbler?
#110 CaptainofDespair agrees that Laitaine may be the Bear. Bearish behaviour to accuse many? And to jump on the suggestion that somoen else may be the Bear? (That was what started me on the CaptainofDespair wild goose-chase!)
#128 CaptainofDespair - “Go ahead and lynch me - you’ll be sorry”. Another 2 will die - could be the Ranger (if not the Bear). (Yes, he was the Ranger you idiot!)
#134 Durelin supports SpM’s theory on CoD being Bear (arrgh! - perhaps she is!!).
#138 COD votes for SPM - confirms my suspicions - jumps on SamwiseGamgee’s suspicion and a knee-jerk against my voicing suspicion of him.
#150 Desperate defence by CoD? Now openly suggesting that he is gifted. Maybe he is - if so, he’s a goner tonight.
#160 Durelin votes for SpM for fitting his own noted likely pattern of Bear behaviour! (This made me chuckle.)

Night 3 Hunter reasoning

Likely targets:

Lalaith – difficulty is, she just may be the Seer. She talks of having foresight (her character possibly offering good cover for her secret role). Question re Bear/Seer. Or she could be a Shirriff with Laitaine.
Laitaine – her Day 1 voting and mild defence of Mithalwen is a cause for concern. And she would be a neat fit with Lalaith for a Wolvish pair.
Durelin – lot of accusations against her. Could that be the Wolves, setting her up for a fall? If she’s a Wolf, they are unlikely to kill me tonight – too obvious. But if not, they may kill me to frame her. She may be the Bear, though.
Gil-Galad – I’m now pretty sure that he’s either the Cobbler or simply a confused but innocent Villager. (Doh!)

The other possibility is a Firefoot/arcticstorm pairing “flying under the radar”. Articstorm makes lots of accusations, but rarely backs them up. The only time he did was his accusation of Laitaine as a Bear. But why would they have voiced such suspicion of Mithalwen on the first Day? There was just too much other suspicion around her at that time. They would have had to have been very bold Wolves. They are more likely to be the Shirriffs. (Quite proud of that spot.)

Increasingly suspicious of LMP as the Bear. But he might be the Seer …

Day 3

#194 Arcticstorm suspects Gil-Galad and Durelin of Wolvery and thinks LMP may be the Bear (a good analysis to reach that conclusion). He may be the Bear diverting suspicion, but I tend to think that he’s the remaining Shirriff.
#207 Dancing spawn points at Durelin and Lalaith and airs a few ideas – but she is really saying very little. Dang that girl! She’s making me more suspicious of her with every post. ( :D This was quite frustrating, because I really wanted to believe her innocent.)
#211 LMP pooh poohs SpM’s “Werebear” analysis and suggests concentrating on the Wolves (as well he might …). Mildly hints at SpM being the Bear while also saying he believes me innocent.
#216 Boromir88 suggests not pointing out “Wolfish” or “Bearish” behaviour. He suggest that he has other motives in his “diversionary” posts. Does he recognise me as the Hunter? Or is he trying to protect the Seer? Or is it all bluff? (No, he was the Seer. :rolleyes: )
#228 arcticstorm reveals himself as the other Shirriff. Hurrah! I got something right at last!
#237 G-G wonders whether he might be being framed. He probably is. Actually, looking at who has accused him today - probably not. Maybe he is just a “guileless Wolf” as LMP put it.
#242 SamwiseGamgee suggest lynching arcticstormn to deny the Wolves a safe kill!!!! ‘Tis a silly plan. We lose two innocents for the price of one. Thankfully, there follow some posts rejecting it. (Sorry Samwise.)
#253 Durelin votes for Boromir88 as either Wolf or Bear. (Doh! He’s so not a Wolf.) (But then, she was the Cobbler.)
#257 SamwiseGamgee suggests that arcticstorm will look guilty if he survives the Night. Now that’s just wrong-headed. And giving the lycanthropes ideas. (Sorry again, Samwise. ;) )

Night 4 Hunter thoughts

On Night 4, I put into effect my soon to be patented Wolf-tracking system, rather a crude method which involved listing everything that pointed toward guilt, everything that pointed towards innocence, weighting them and the tallying the scores. I concentrated on Durelin, Lalaith, Laitaine, dancing spawn and LMP, my main suspects at that point. The scores worked out at:

Durelin: 3
Lalaith: 3
Laitaine: 12
Dancing Spawn: 8
LMP: 6

So, while undoubtedly crude, it actually proved pretty useful.

Hunter victim:

Either Laitaine or dancing spawn – probably go for Laitaine on basis dancing spawn should be questioned tomorrow if Boromir88 does not clear her.

Day 4

#275 LMP posts quickly with one he prepared earlier. Points at dancing spawn and Nonnacedak as the Wolf and Lalaith and dancing spawn as the Bear. Votes for dancing spawn. He’s all over the place. (Sorry, LMP.)
#281 Gurthang suggests that LMP may be the Cobbler. He may be right. A Bear probably wouldn’t say that of the prime Bear suspect. (Well actually, you old fool, he turned out to be the Bear ...)
#283 LMP stoutly defends. He’s being much too defensive here. If he is the Cobbler, perhaps he hopes to gain today’s votes.
#296 Dancing spawn also suspects LMP as the Cobbler, but is saying very little else!!! I wish that she (or the Seer) would convince me of her innocence. (Unfortunately, no one ever did.)
#299 LMP rants about how he's innocent, everything he says is leading us the wrong way and how we might as well vote for him, though he's apparently not the Cobbler. (This one gets my vote for best post of the game.)

Day 5

#360 Boromir88 is not too worried about Nonnacedak. Hmm - is that a hint? (Yes it was. Why didn't you pick up on it you dolt?)
#361 Menel votes for SamwiseGamgee. Why? He has not mentioned him before as ye suspecte.
#366 Durelin votes for The Saucepan Man. Foolish girl. Probably not the Bear. (Not so foolish, given her role.)
#372 LMP reckons Nonnacedak is the Cobbler. That’s just ludicrous. (Well ... it was.)

Night 6 Hunter reasoning

Well, either I go for Meneltarmacil or LMP, and hope whoever I go for, if the Bear, takes a punt on trying to kill me. Or I bank on the fact that neither Menel nor LMP, if either is the Bear, will dare attack me and go for someone else.

But who?

Well, I have gone for SamwiseGamgee for his uncharacteristically late vote when he was in the frame. Wouldn’t it be great if he was the Bear and tried to take the opportunity to knock me off to-Night …? (Yes, it would have been great. But it was not to be.)

It’s not much but, other than Menel and LMP, it’s the best I’ve got.

Oh well, let’s see …

Day 6

#381 Boromir88 is looking for a quiet Bear and names Gurthang. (So why didn't you listen to him? You thought he might be the Seer, didn't you!!??)
#384 Gurthang suspects Boromir88 for his vote yester-Day. Suggests a mass lynching presided over by the Cobbler.
#385 SpM points out that the Cobbler is unlikely to co-operate. Notes that he could preside over a mass lynching – they must know I’m the Hunter by now, surely? (Seems only the Wolves had picked up on that.)
#386 Durelin wants to lynch SpM or Boromir88. Why? Surely she’s the Cobbler. Just look at her record on voting for Wolves. (At last, I got something else right.)
#388 Boromir88 drops his hints again. Bold Bear strategy? Seer? Or something else? Suspects Gurthang (but mildly - based on Day 1 and subsequent appearance of innocence) and Menel (ref to SpM’s reasoning).
#396 Durelin owns up to being the Cobbler. Which means, of course, she could be the Bear … Aiiiieeeeeeee!!!! (Paranoia is a dreadful thing.)
#412 Boromir88 is the Seer (he’s very unlikely to be the Bear bluffing). (But you still thought he might be, didn't you ...?)