Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Oddwen]

Our Village. Our unexpected sorrow. Here and lynched again. And what happened after.
Adventures of Twenty Villagers. The tale of the Werewolves, compiled by Various Villagers from their own observations and the accounts of their friends. What we did with the Black Beorning.

The hoped for Downfall
of the
Werewolves
and the
Return of the Cobbler

(as seen by the Villagers; being the memoirs of Members of the Barrowdowns, supplemented by the accounts of the Mods and the learning of the Admins.)

Together with extracts of various entertainments.

-------------------------

Welcome to Barrowdowns Werewolf, Version 8.0.
Rules are as set forth in the seven previous versions.

DAY and NIGHT shall be 24 hours in length. During the DAY, Villagers will choose one or more of their fellows whom they suspect to be beastly to lynch. During the NIGHT, Werewolves and Beorning will each choose one victim to slay.

Game ends when either all the Wolves and the Beorning are killed, or when the Wolf to Villager ratio is equal. In which case, I pity your poor hides.

DAYS end and NIGHTS begin at 12:00 Noon GMT. Or you can look at the time on the Moderator's post and count 24 hours from then.

Please keep your One Ring firmly on your finger during the remainder of the game. (Please stay invisible)

-------------------


Roles in this Village are:

Ordinary Villagers: Ords work during the DAY to make sure there are no more marauders by NIGHT. The usual method is killing one of their own.

Werewolves: Wolves communicate at NIGHT and only at NIGHT to choose one victim, and then PM their choice to the Mod. They can then stir up speculation during the DAY and snicker behind their furry paws.

Black Beorning: The Beorning turns into a bear and chooses one victim per NIGHT to kill. He could kill a Wolf, or he could kill an Ord. He wins only if he is the ONLY surviving Villager. Wolves and Beorning are not in league.

Hunter: The Hunter makes a choice of another Villager each NIGHT to take down with him if he is Werewolf Fodder or Lynched. Preferably a Beast.

Ranger: The Ranger chooses one Villager each NIGHT to protect from WOLF attacks. He is ineffectual against the Beorning.

Seer: The Seer chooses one Villager each NIGHT to dream about. It is then revealed to them if said Villager is Naughty or Nice.

Cobbler: The Cobbler hates his life so badly that he wants the WOLVES to win. He will do anything within his limited power to confuse the Villagers and so ensure a Werewolf victory, including letting himself be lynched. He does not know who the Wolves are. The Cobbler appears to be an innocent villager to the Seer.

Sherriffs: The Sherriffs are two individuals who know that the other is innocent. They can PM during the DAY, and the DAY only. How they choose to play these cards is up to them.

-----------------------------

Once you're dead, you're dead. Please refrain from posting either here or in the original thread.

Any OOC comments can be taken to the original thread (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=11911&page=26&pp=40). (Abscences, etc.)

Any game-related questions, please PM me and I will answer in the original thread.

Votes are irretractable, and must be on a seperate line like this:

++ODDWEN

Any aberrance from this rule will be punished with a squeaky hammer to the head and a desultory limerick with their name in it.

-----------------------

Our list of players is as follows:


1. Alcarillo - Bartender
2. Arcticstorm - Philosopher
3. littlemanpoet of Willowbottom* - Baker
4. Boromir88 - Town Coroner
5. CaptainofDespair - Shrew Farmer
6. Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant - Glass Blower
7. Durelin - Town Feline
8. Encaitare - Splenetic Lamenting Lover
9. Firefoot - Animal Artist
10. Gil-Galad - Garrisoned Soldier, tripling as Town Cryer & Gravekeeper
11. Gurthang - Annoying Animal Rights Activist (AARA)
12. Laitain - Minorly Annoying Minstrel
13. Lalaith - Soothsayer
14. Meneltarmacil - Ye Olde Knighte
15. Mithalwen - Blessed Cheesemaker
16. Mormegil - Alchemist
17. Nonnacedak - Ice Fisherman
18. SamwiseGamgee - Warg Historian
19. Saucepan Man, The - Burly Ex-Miner
20. Wilwarin538 - Butterfly Researcher

There are:

3 Werewolves
2 Sherriffs (who may reveal themselves)
1 Black Beorning
1 Cobbler
1 Seer
1 Hunter
1 Ranger/Guardian
10 Ordinary Villagers

It is now NIGHT one. DAY one will commence in 24 hours. Seer, please PM me with the Villager of your dreams. Wolves may communicate, Sherriffs may not.

[Oddwen]

Looking at my own reflection,
When suddenly it changes,
Violently it changes
Oh, no. There is no turning back now,
you've woken up the Werewolf in me.

-------------------





Day broke as usual on the small Village of Hamlet - cold, cold, cold. And cold. Did I mention cold? Well, it was the middle of winter high up on a mountain, so the frigidity was justified. It wasn't met with cheers of joy every day, that's all.
Villagers went about their early morning duties as usual, though niggling at the back of their minds was the feeling that something wasn't right.

Alcarillo felt it as he set up the barstools.
Arcticstorm felt it as he read his theology books.
littlemanpoet felt it as he baked Zali's bread and tried on her clothes.
Boromir88 thought about it as he investigated the death of a chicken.
CaptainofDespair felt it while he herded up his shrews in preparation for the shearing later that day.
Dancing Spawn felt it as she started her inferno and sorted her glass.
Durelin felt it as she ate one of the Captain's shrews.
Enca felt it, but thought it was another symptom of lost love.
Firefoot felt it as she readied her pencils to draw a shrew.
Gil-Galad almost thought about crying it to the town, but instead went about digging a grave for the chicken.
Gurthang felt it, and it made him even more irritable about the 'Poor, pooooor chicken'.
Laitaine wrote a song about it. In D-minor. Of course.
Lalaith felt it and muttered "Sooth, sooth." Most who heard her thought she was talking about needing her chimney cleaned.
Menel felt it as he polished his armor.
Mithalwen felt it as she milked her goats.
Mormegil felt it as he turned gold into less gold.
Nonnacedak felt it as he prepared to go down to the lake and fish.
SamwiseGamgee felt it as he scornfully compared a shrew to a lyena.
Saucie felt it, even though he had been at the bar since it opened.
Wilwa felt it as she lamented her career, but was slightly more elated when she spotted a rare snow moth.

Even so, it was several hours before they noticed that something was indeed amiss. Where was their healer?
"Where is Oddwen?" they asked. "Even she never sleeps quite this late."
A few of her closest friends went across to her house, and knocked on the door. But no answer - how absurd! The friendly neighborhood chiropractor always was prompt! Not before noon usually, but always prompt after that.
"Maybe she threw her back out," suggested one. With growing crowds and alarm, they entered her house and looked for her.
"She's not in the house," they said in wonderment. "But she couldn't have left - there are her shoes and coat, on that skeleton thing she keeps around."
"She doesn't even have a fire going, and in the dead of winter too," another said, and opened the woodbox. A scream strangled its way out of the throat of the villager - and the others gathered in alarm. Another skeleton lay in the woodbox.
But a closer examination by one of the more stout-hearted revealed that this skeleton was not "another", it was the original. The one sporting Oddwen's kine-hide jacket and shoes was not a wired together reference guide at all, it was leftovers from a meal. In the pocket of the jacket they found a note:

*burp*
Werewolves three
Hee hee hee

"She's been...murdered! Eaten!" they gasped in horror. "By Werewolves...and is that supposed to be poetry?! Worser and worser! But why? Why would they attack our little peaceful village Hamlet?" A trip to the pantry revealed a clue - as they opened it, splintered wood and shredded calfskin tumbled out. It was all that remained of Oddwen's drums.
"Why would they destroy those?" murmured the village.
"I was so fond of her playing," said one sadly. "Especially when she'd yodel."
"Aye," said another growing misty eyed. "It was a comfort on those long nights."
"Reg'lar as clockwork she was, the sun'd go down, and up would go an hour long beatin' solo."
"She was good too, couldn't have missed the rhythm more'n every other measure. And you've never *heard* such dynamics!"
"Some days, the only break she took from playin' would be to serve a customer."
"She was a selfless lass, always ready to come to me house to play me to sleep when I couldn't."
"She used to come and beat on me Saucepans."
"Remember the band we formed last summer? Dear Oddwen on the skins, Laitaine playin' her flute, Menel there on his bagpipes and old man Saucie callin' the moves for the dance?"
No doubt about it - these Wolves were insane, attacking a harmless, peaceful village for no reason.
Their lamentations were cut short as Boromir88 entered, bringing in the dead chicken.
"Eew," the Villagers cried. "Eew!"
"I've discovered the reason for death," cried Boromir. "It was stepped on - by a bear!"
This was met with another shock. What? Eh? Bears? Nonsense!
A trip outside to the chicken shack quelled their doubts. There in the snow were tracks of the largest bear anyone could remember remembering. They circled Oddwen's little hut and wandered in and out of the Village. They found several other small squashed animals in its wake.
"Werewolves and frostbite and bears, oh my!" cried the Villagers.
They swore revenge on the Wolves and the bear for dear Oddwen and (on the insistence of Gurthang) the poooooooor chicken.

-----------------------


It is now DAY one. Werewolves, stop PMing. Sherriffs may start. DAY will end in 24 hours.

A reminder: please do not edit your posts for anything other than minor mistakes. Double posts are okay, remember.

[Gurthang]

This is truly a tragic day; but I fear that even more tragedy will befall us before we are all able to rest. Oddwen will be sorely missed, if for no other reason than her calm thinking would have been an immense help during this newly darkened hour.

But I hope that we will all be able to think like rational humans in this matter. Do not be rash in your decisions here. We don’t know everything behind this event. These werewolves may have been forced to do this foul deed. After all, they are creatures who do things by nature and instinct. Perhaps they were responding to some threat they saw to themselves, and so they would blame us for the starting of this matter.

But know this: I am not saying what they did was right. I am searching for a peaceful end to this predicament, if that is at all possible. Maybe if we leave these werewolves alone, they will leave us alone. Perhaps this is just a big misunderstanding that will end here if we don’t continue it. If we could all think about this from the wolves’ point of view, maybe we can figure out a non-violent way of resolving this situation. Yet knowing the nature of us as humans, I’m not sure that will be possible. :(

Still, I hope we won’t be too hasty in the decisions we are about to make. All of our lives are at stake here, which makes this a very tense scene. Clear thinking is what we need. There is something I think we all overlook at times, but we would do better if we remembered this: Werewolves are People, too! :eek: ;)

[(400th post!)]

[Alcarillo]

Alas! Poor Oddwen, we knew her well. I'll always remember the way she ordered he drinks at the bar; with a straight back, never slouching. *sheds tear* So, this is the first day of lynching. I suppose we could just look for suspicious posts or randomly pick somebody to lynch (probably not a good idea). We'll be in the dark until we come up with a sort of strategy for nabbing these werewolf (and bear) menaces.

[Boromir88]

Gurthang, we have a death on our hands, apparently killed by werewolves, and above that bears too. I doubt peace is going to be a good solution.

Though I do agree we should clearly think this through, no sense in irrationally starting a mass man hunt, or should I say wolf hunt? We don't want to get ourselves into a situation where we are just hanging anyone we see.

[mormegil]

Gurthang, if wolves are people too all the more reason to kill them and quickly. I've got my experiments to get back to and I do hope that this tragic event won't interfer with my gold making. Now I find it telling that our animal rights activist there is so willing to support these wolves. I tell you they can think and they know right from wrong. I say we burn them and warm ourselves by their fires.

[Firefoot]

Now why would anyone want to kill poor Oddwen? 'Tis a sad day indeed for the village of Hamlet.

I can't say as I have any pity for our wolves; from what I've heard tell they tend to be cunning creatures who know exactly what they're doing. They've got to be lynched. The problem is finding out who them wolves are, and I don't see any way to do that save by careful observation and keeping our wits about us.

We'll have to see, but today I reckon we're just going to have to get lucky.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Wolves and bears on one night! Well, that's just great. These werewolves may have been forced to do this foul deed. They were forced by their thirst for blood, I say.I suppose we could just look for suspicious posts or randomly pick somebody to lynch Random accusing and random lynching are two very different things. On this day everything looks suspicious - we have murderers among us. I don't expect to be much wiser at the end of this day but let's not do any hasty decisions yet. It's still early. But there's one thing I want to say: let's not show them any mercy for we shall receive none.

[littlemanpoet]

I am Azaelia of Willowbottom. No, really. It's just that I've had this really, really bad magical transformation happen to me. I think it was the last great wish of Oddwen whispered to some god before she died. So yes, I'm the Baker, but you can call me LMP. It's easier.

Urk! Sorry! Urk! I'm having an attack of laryngitis and won't be able to communicate properly for I don't know how long, so I'm just going to vote now. If that looks suspicious, so be it. Yes, it's totally <urk> random, but what else do you expect on Day One?

++ Gurthang

On the grounds that he's an annoying animal rights activist. So there.

[Durelin]

Oh my... *daintily picks a tiny shrew vertebra out of her teeth*

Poor poor Oddwen...Odd she was, but not a bad sort of odd.

Werewolves...ick...even worse than dogs! I'd claw one to pieces if I didn't have a long afternoon nap scheduled....

*begins licking her paw* Mmm...shrew... I need to take a bath to get this taste all over me....

++ Gurthang

On the grounds that he's an annoying animal rights activist. So there.
Startling! Not really grounds for suspicion, though. A random vote is a random vote.

Wait...this place is called Hamlet? Mmm...little ham... *purrs*

Ooh, look, a butterfly! *chases after it*

(You do know cats have short attention spans...)

[arcticstorm]

We need not be too quick in making accusations today. especially not until we have seen what everyone has to say, just maybe the wolves are waiting for us to start accusing eachother,before they come and put there own two cents worth in. Today of all days is not a day for hasty actions. and those who seem guilty at first may be as innocent as a newborn. And those who appear to be innocent, may in fact be rotten to the core.

Do not persons often err about good and evil: Many who are not good seem to be so, and conversely?
Bear this in mind as we try to find out who our real enemies are

[SamwiseGamgee]

articstorm, your 'shades of grey' argument does not wash with me. During my many years of lupine study I have learned one very important thing: werewolves are evil, and there are no two ways about it!

For most of my life I have toiled and worked to gain a better understanding of Wargs, and in doing so my path has often crossed that of a werewolf- not without a shudder running down my spine I hasten to add. One thing I have learned above all else, and this we must agree upon fellow friends of Hamlet: werewolves ARE NOT people. They are cold, vicious, systematic killers whose sole aim in life is to bring pain, misery and suffering upon all those they come across. The fact that by day they mascarade as friendly villagers cannot be allowed to dim our vision.

Gurthang, I find your opinions worrying. Tell me friend, how do you hope to approach a werewolf, his breath still strong with the odour of dear, precious Oddwen's blood and seek a peaceful solution? Your way is folly, Gurthang! Explain yourself, or you shall leave me no option but to call for your death!

[The Saucepan Man]

*Saucepan finishes his pint of Alcarillo's Best Bitter and orders another*

Eee bah gum, 'ere's a right mess and no mistake. Since t'fateful day when t'mines closed, this 'ere Village 'as taken me in and shown me kindness, like. And that there Oddwen was one of t'kindest of all. Let my voice join t'voices of those who 'ave sworn revenge on these foul beasties.

Maybe if we leave these werewolves alone, they will leave us alone. Perhaps this is just a big misunderstanding that will end here if we don’t continue it.'Fraid, I cannot agree with thee there, brother Activist. Pure though thy 'eart may be in this matter, it seems plain to me as t'nose on thy face that these 'ere creatures will stop at nothing to kill again 'ere t'next day dawns. And mayhaps yonder bear will be joining them in their killing spree, like. Thee says that Werewolves are people too. To my mind, that only means that they pose ever t'greater danger to us.

Though I do agree we should clearly think this through, no sense in irrationally starting a mass man hunt, or should I say wolf hunt?But that is exactly what we should be doing. We must look carefully at what everybody says and judge all by their words. And by end of t'day, we must choose one Villager (but no more than one, my friends, for now at least) that we believe to be one of these murderous fiends and 'ang them 'igh. On a majority vote, like. But I do agree with thee that we should not be 'asty in making our choice. I for one will regard anyone who shows undue 'aste with suspicion.

*glares at LMP*

Since we have little to go on for t'present, I plan on going by what my fellow Villagers say. And I believe that anyone who remains quiet or who says little to aid our cause should be rightfully viewed by t'Village as suspicious. 'Tis my belief that all accusations should be backed by good reasons. It is only by forcing t'Wolves to speak like and to give reasons for what they say, and thereby possibly incriminate themselves, that we will 'ave anything to go on when t'time comes to vote.

[Note: Fellow Villagers will no doubt be grateful to hear that Saucepan's ridiculous accent will be present for this post only, to establish character, like.]

[Encaitare]

Werewolves! I knew something was amiss, I knew it... but no one listens to me anyway...

So they got Oddwen, did they? I didn't like her. But only because she didn't like me. No one gives a rat's behind about me anymore -- O, my lost love! Why, oh why did you have to listen to the prattle of that stupid wizard?

Ahem. The trick, I think, will be to get over it and try to sort out who these barely-literate wolves (not to mention this abnormally-sized bear) are. What? Don't think I can't hear you whispering behind your hands. I'm dejected, not deaf. You don't see me getting over anything, you say? Well, you all haven't had your hearts broken, have you? Have you?

I didn't think so.

I don't like these things Gurthang over there is saying. Tripe, if you ask me. That littlemanbaker might have a good idea in lynching Gurthang Wolf-Friend.

EDIT: Cross-posted with the ex-miner.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Patience, Encaitare. There are still villagers who have to post. I too am suspicious of Gurthang's apparent love of these murderous beasts, but as t'old boy Saucepan said, we should be loathe to jump hastily decisions. Aafter all, do you want to wake up in the morning with the blood of an innocent villager on your hands because you jumped to a hasty conclusion? Verily I say, in such a situation you are no better than the werewolf yourself.

[Mithalwen]

The trouble is Mr Pan Man is that what is there to say so early in proceedings? Unless anyone has concrete evidence, our choice will be random, at best based on hunch or suspicion.

Alas due to my well known posting schedule, I will perhaps not be able to speak enough or frequently to satisfy you ( I can reach the "parish pump" but once a day at weekends - those goats are such a tie.) Nevertheless I will offer what I can in the short hours open to me - hunch and suspicion though it be.

My initial instinct is that those who speak first may be eager for a reason. To get in quick with sorrow for the dead and to manipulate opinion. And when the person who speaks first defends the murderers of the innocent Oddwen (though with his warped sense of priorotes perhaps his main grief was for the chicken....) my suspicions are redoubled. Perhaps he has very good reason for his sympathy with animals..... I am not being spiteful, even though he does want me to change the name of my plain cheese from mousetrap to "nutrition for humanely detained rodents while awaiting their release into the wild" ......

Boromir also spoke swiftly.... given that this village has been so peaceful until now, it hasn't given him much in the way of employment opportunities, maybe he has been on a work creation scheme. And how does he know so much about bears... Well I will think more on what others have said, before I decide, but as I said I must cast my vote early..... nevertheless since we are many. at least I may vote in the knowledge that my vote may not be too significant given that it cannot be based on all the evidence. These are indeed serious matters - none are more serious than life or death. I have no hard evidence these are observations only.

[Boromir88]

Originally posted by The Sauce Pan Man: But that is exactly what we should be doing. We must look carefully at what everybody says and judge all by their words.

Perhaps you have misunderstood. Of course we want to go after these beasts, but the key word is "irrational," not turning this into a mob of poking fingers and a mass hysteria. There can be an orderly way to do it.

Gurthang, I must say your words are rather suspicious, are you suggesting that we just let this go? Not hunt after the Werewolves and apparently a bear that has murdered Lady Oddwen? This is exactly what we have, a murder, and we must find who these things are and lynch 'em.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

We need not be too quick in making accusations today. especially not until we have seen what everyone has to sayBut if anybody doesn't accuse anyone there won't be anything to say.I'm having an attack of laryngitis and won't be able to communicate properly for I don't know how long, so I'm just going to vote now. Yes, it's totally <urk> random, but what else do you expect on Day One? Maybe it wouldn't have been so random if you had waited until nightfall...or if you hadn't voted at all. This little vote of yours might make others suspect Gurthang, too. Wether the suspicion is undue or not, I don't know.

But really, Gurthang, put the animal rights aside and think of our human rights!

[Alcarillo]

*Pushes more beer into Saucepan Man's hands*

I too am a bit suspicious of Gurthang and his hasty vote, but I myself don't have enough proof of his guilt to convince me.

There can be an orderly way to do it.

But how? I suppose we just wait for everybody to say something a few times to hear their opinion. Any other ideas? This first day will be the most difficult without any clues.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

My initial instinct is that those who speak first may be eager for a reason. To get in quick with sorrow for the dead and to manipulate opinion.
Someone has to be the first, anyway. I wouldn't count on that too much. The earlier we start discussing our situation the more time we have to ponder this problem. I have to admit, though, that I've never trusted those who lament very conspicuously, either.

[Mithalwen]

But if anybody doesn't accuse anyone there won't be anything to say. Maybe it wouldn't have been so random if you had waited until nightfall...or if you hadn't voted at all. This little vote of yours might make others suspect Gurthang, too. Wether the suspicion is undue or not, I don't know.



Your first point is very true Dancing Spawn, but your second is harsh on those of us who cannot be "in the village square" (online) frequently during the day. Not to vote may cast suspicion on oneself and few are going to be noble enough to risk that rather than cast suspicion on another, even if it is premature. (I am aware of this dilemma particularly because the fixed length day timeframe means (if I survive) I am almost certainly going to have to cast my vote relatively early. ) NB if this bit belongs in the other thread - my apologies and I will move it).

[The Saucepan Man]

The trouble is Mr Pan Man is that what is there to say so early in proceedings? Unless anyone has concrete evidence, our choice will be random, at best based on hunch or suspicion. I agree that all we have at present is hunch and suspicion but we should use them to arrive at a conclusion which is at least sensible, even though it may turn out to be wrong.

Alas due to my well known posting schedule, I will perhaps not be able to speak enough or frequently to satisfy you ...I would not necessarily regard someone who only makes a handful of contributuons as supicious. I am far more concerned with the content of what is said. If people cannot participate frequently, so be it. But they should at least make some attempt at sensible analysis when doing so. It is only in our foes' interests to make "content-lite" contributions. As an example of such, I would cite Durelin's first post. And that's not an accusation, you understand. I am merely using it for illustrative purposes at present.

A question though. If someone knows that they will not be able to vote later in the day, is it better, if they are innocent, for them to vote when they can or simply not to vote that day? I have my own thoughts, but would welcome the views of others.

And to add something further which I hope may contribute to the discussion, is it not the case that acting with obvious suspicion on the first day is most un-Werewolf like behaviour? It might be a double-bluff, but a very dangerous one on Day 1, when anything vaguely suspicious is picked up on. It may be Cobbler behaviour, but I would prefer to bag a Wolf or two or a Bear first before turning my attention to the Cobbler.

Perhaps you have misunderstood. Of course we want to go after these beasts, but the key word is "irrational," not turning this into a mob of poking fingers and a mass hysteria. My objection was to your counselling against starting a wolf-hunt. I agree that we should approach this rationally. But a wolf-hunt is precisely what we are now engaged on.

(And let's not foget that Bear. Bagging him or her will reduce our exposure during the Night.)

[The Saucepan Man]

I too am a bit suspicious of Gurthang and his hasty vote ...It was LMP who voted hastily for Gurthang, Alc. Methinks that you have been indulging rather too much in your own fine beer. :p ;)

To clarify, which one is it that you are casting vague suspicion on?

I see that dancing spawn anticipated my question about voting early. My own view is that it depends how much has been said already. LMP's very early vote is supicious, but would a Wolf act that suspiciously on the first Day?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Your first point is very true Dancing Spawn, but your second is harsh on those of us who cannot be "in the village square" (online) frequently during the day.Not to vote may cast suspicion on oneself and few are going to be noble enough to risk that rather than cast suspicion on another I don't blame him. I'm just making observations. It seemed to me that he don't really care if he's making himself look questionable. If that looks suspicious, so be it.And let's not foget that Bear. Bagging him or her will reduce our exposure during the Night. I'd say it's our primary goal to lynch the bear. As long as there are wolves and a bear around, we lose two good villagers a night (unless they attack each other).

[Alcarillo]

It was LMP who voted hastily for Gurthang, Alc. Methinks that you have been indulging rather too much in your own fine beer. :p ;)

To clarify, which one is it that you are casting vague suspicion on?

I guess that's what happens when you read through a bit too quickly (while drinking). LMP is the more suspicious, to me, of the two, having voted so early and based on so little proof. Gurthang is less suspicious, but only because of his little "werewolves are peple, too!" comment, which was only in character. So my main suspicion is with LMP, although I won't be as quick as he to cast my vote. I'll wait too hear everybody.

[Mithalwen]

Well trying to guess the degree of bluff is just mindspinning. It may be an error to dig too deeply and ignore the obvious. Personally if push came to shove, I would vote in better conscience for someone who had acted suspiciously than someone who hadn't - in the absence of something more definite. Also getting the cobbler would be a better result for the village than lynching an innocent. Remember the cobbler's aim is to help the wolves, is it not.....?

AS for the not voting thing ... well much as my instinct goes against casting a vote before all the evidence and opinions have been heard, my schedule means that my first chance real chance speak on weekdays is at 1pm BST ie noon GMT the moment when the day/night begins. I then have an hour and a few hours potentially after work. I will try to get in early enough to check before work but realistically there may not be enough time to make a good call. I could end up never voting if I took the more "ethical" stance of not voting early. That would be a dereliction of the duty to vote. Maybe I should have sat this one out but I didn't realise the timing implication and there really isn't anything I can do about it short of quitting my job. In the circumstances I think it better to vote early than not vote at all. It would be arrogant for me to think that I would be so influential that those around later would find my vote more persuasive than evidence that came to light after I voted, knowing my situation. With 20 living villagers quite a few vote will be needed surely to hang someone. If I make it to the later stages I will obviously rethink (and if I must set the alarm even earlier ...)

[The Saucepan Man]

Also getting the cobbler would be a better result for the village than lynching an innocent.Agreed, but our primary goal should be to lynch someone who can harm us. Failing that, the Cobbler would be better than an innocent Villager. However, I doubt that the Cobbler is likely to be acting too obviously suspicious from the off either.

I understand the suspicion being cast in LMP's direction. I myself am suspicious of him for his behaviour, although I have a nagging doubt that it was not the behaviour of a Wolf or Bear (or a Gifted, for that matter). But I am concerned about the degree of suspicion that Gurthang is attracting for what was only really an 'in character' comment. I don't know whether he is gulity or innocent, but I am loathe to condemn him on that alone.

[Mithalwen]

Agreed, but our primary goal should be to lynch someone who can harm us.

Well that the wolves and bear are the primary source of danger is goes without saying but a cobbler who succeeds in getting innocents hanged is also a killer even if (s)he doesn't get his hands bloody himself/herself . A dead innocent is a dead innocent no matter how they meet their end. I wouldn't place so much distiction between the cobbler and the beasts. Confusion is a dangerous weapon and if the cobbler survives too long the fate of all will be in their hands.

All this does not help me much as the sands of time slip away. Soon I must go having heard - what half? the village speak. Do I vote for Gurthang who I suspect also for his promptness even if his ic words are disregarded and be accused of bandwagonning? Do I not vote (a cop out) :( or vote utterly at random and hope that enough people have enough information to make a wiser choice that will make mine a token vote.... aieeeeeee

We live in interesting times. I will see if an analysis of who has spoken and what helps ....

[mormegil]

I'm in favor of all voting if that's the discussion.

However in working out my latest chemistry equations it came to me like lightning, it did. I know who is guilty!

I say Firefoot, Mithalwen and Articstorm are the wolves among us and this alchemist is never wrong...you'll see one day I will turn this metal here into gold.

[Mithalwen]

I'm in favor of all voting if that's the discussion.

However in working out my latest chemistry equations it came to me like lightning, it did. I know who is guilty!

I say Firefoot, Mithalwen and Articstorm are the wolves among us and this alchemist is never wrong...you'll see one day I will turn this metal here into gold.


Now that really is a random accusation ..... !!!! I have warned you about eating strong cheese late at night...... How can I defend myself against that? All I can say is that you have been saying the day when you produce gold will be dawning for years ...and it aint getting any lighter is it? Anyone with any sense knows you have to mine for gold... even dwarves know that ..... but no you think you can turn base metal into it without the effort of actually doing some hard work.

Also I might say it is a nice wolf trick to try and point the finger at someone who has announced she has to go imminently and cannot remain to defend herself. Trying to find an easy target to save yourself are you?

[Meneltarmacil]

Ah, 'tis too bad that our deare Oddwen hath been taken from us by these foule wolves. I have rolled my die of twenty sides and it hath landed on ye olde 12, ye number of Laitaine. However, trying ye random approache may not be needed here. It seems that ye olde baker, LMP hath indeede voted rather quickly. To me, it appeareth likely that thou art ye Cobbler, LMP, but keepe in minde that even ye Cobbler may not be ye type to be doing something that risky on ye firste Daye.

[Firefoot]

I say Firefoot, Mithalwen and Articstorm are the wolves among us and this alchemist is never wrong You're wrong. *Shrugs.*

Personally, I'm disinclined to believe that either LMP or Gurthan is guilty. I think our wolves are more likely to either be in the background somewhere or posting fairly frequently but not doing a lot of finger pointing or gathering much attention. Granted, that's just about everybody... but when the time comes to vote I will be looking at people who are posting but not saying much.

I haven't seen anything blaringly suspicious yet. Morm's random list is just that, random, but I'm not overly concerned. I'd like to hear from those who haven't posted yet, as well.

[Gurthang]

My, my, my. It seems I've earned a lot of suspicion because of my occupation. Many of you are pointing to my statement about wanting a peaceful end to this situation as being suspicious. I even heard a few comments about me supporting the wolves. :eek: I must say, I am rather offended about that. :(

When I said I would like a peaceful end, I did not really have much hope that that would be possible, and I said as much. And I am certainly not supporting their deed. It was wrong, and justice should be served, but I was also saying that during the course of justice, we must not act rashly.

I also notice that LMP has earned some suspicion because of his vote for me. I am not in suspicion of him. And seeing as he hinted that he will probably not post again, I can see the reason behind his early vote.

Originally posted by The Saucepan Man
Thee says that Werewolves are people too. To my mind, that only means that they pose ever t'greater danger to us.

Hmm. I hadn't thought of that.

I also want to point out that we have not heard from CaptainofDespair, Lalaith, Laitaine, Nonnacedak, Gil-Galad, or Wilwa yet. I agree that waiting until all have spoken is a good idea.

[Mithalwen]

Hmm well if LMP is the cobbler .... well how could he know what would help the wolves with only a few posts on the board? The cobbler isn't privy to any special information is he? He can only make his deductions like the rest of us. It occurs though that his behaviour might be good cover for a Seer. Make it look like a random accusation so you don't have to declare yourself and hope that people join the bandwagon? Just a theory.... I mean the seer is very vulnerable while the Bear live since the Ranger can't protect from the Beorning. I know that it would be flukey that the Seer would strike lucky straight off AND that the person would be foolish enough to behave so conveniently suspiciously (albeit partly IC) but flukes do happen...... The Seer has just over a 50% chance of having identified a significant villager .... and with only 4 (?) villagers left to speak at all, I haven't seen a better indication.

Hey I'm clutching at straws here. I have about 15 minutes to decide.....

[Mithalwen]

2nd post due to cross post with Gurthang... I cannot wait.... for all .. I have to go with what we have which isn't a lot....

[CaptainofDespair]

Hmm...suspicious.

Gurthang has caused me to raise an eyebrow. I shall ponder him and his thoughts. I doubt he should be worried about at the moment, however. He may be annoying, and an animal rights activist, but he does not appear too guilty, at least not yet. Time will tell.

Though, Durelin has given me a cause for worry, as she has eaten one of my shrews. We will see what part she has to play, if any.

I'd rather not randomly lynch someone, but Gurthang is the only one truly 'on my radar'.

[Nonnacedak]

Ah the day had been great and full of large trout before I had heard of the death of poor Oddwen... I must confess that I will be looking over my shoulder much more often now when I wander off to the lake by my lonesome. After hearing the cases of almost everyone in the village I honestly dont know who is guilty or innocent. I am surrounded by liars and I am but a humble trout fisherman. Mormegil's accusations seem completely baseless. If it came down to it with the evidence I have at the present I would choose that animal loving freak named Gurthang! I must hear from the few villagers left who have thus far been silent to make a final decision. Us innocents must filter through the lies to save our poor village! I await the silent!

[Mithalwen]

I have got to decide now and it isn't easy. I am afraid that I had always thought that if I had to make a random decision I would go for the person who posted first on the principle of "If you can't be fair, be arbitrary" . While I can see the sense in that his behaviour is too obvious, it is also possible that it is a double bluff. It is also possible that LMP is the Seer ( reason for the last minute sub?).
Many others also suspect him so, not having the luxury to wait and fearing personal consequences of not voting...

++ Gurthang

[Gurthang]

Mithalwen, that doesn't seem very fair to me, voting for me just because I posted first. I must also say that if you think LMP is the Seer, you really shouldn't point him out like that. If he is, and the wolves believe you, you just showed him to them.

This may sound like it's out of spite, but I am now suspicious of Mithalwen. She is voting for me on very unsteady grounds(cuz I was first to post). She's also posted twice as many times as anyone else, yet really hasn't said to much. Mostly just her musing to herself about the various roles in our village. Hmmm.

Still, I want to wait until others say what they think. It sounds like we won't hear from Mith again today; I'm not sure I'll vote for someone who hasn't had a chance to defend themselves.

[Meneltarmacil]

It may be that Mithalwen is a beaste or ye Cobbler, but at this pointe I don't see enough evidence to be certaine of thy suggestion, Gurthang. However, LMP might be in neede of some protection from nowe on. Or is he a Wolfe or Beare trying to look like ye Seere to avoide yon gallows? 'Tis a toughe situation.

[Firefoot]

I agree; Mithalwen's vote of Gurthang seems suspicious to me. While I can see why people might be suspicious of him, I think that he was just playing up his animal rights activist role. Mithalwen's vote doesn't seem like much other than a band-waggoning vote, and voting just because someone posted first doesn't seem fair. In fact, it seems less likely to me that a wolf would post first, not more. Now, I am not by any means saying that Gurthang is innocent; I just think that we need to look at our reasons for voting for people a little more closely.
Now that really is a random accusation ..... !!!! I have warned you about eating strong cheese late at night...... How can I defend myself against that? All I can say is that you have been saying the day when you produce gold will be dawning for years ...and it aint getting any lighter is it? Anyone with any sense knows you have to mine for gold... even dwarves know that ..... but no you think you can turn base metal into it without the effort of actually doing some hard work.

Also I might say it is a nice wolf trick to try and point the finger at someone who has announced she has to go imminently and cannot remain to defend herself. Trying to find an easy target to save yourself are you? Does this defense of Mithalwen's sound a little over-hysterical to anyone else?

I'd say it's our primary goal to lynch the bear. As long as there are wolves and a bear around, we lose two good villagers a night (unless they attack each other). This makes some sense to me. The problem is that the bear will probably have an easier time hiding since s/he, like most others, only know the role of his/herself and will honestly be looking to lynch the wolves. There will be no evidence of teamwork, etc.

[Lalaith]

Sooth, sooth, forsooth.
I've been reading and mulling over what all my fellow villagers have said and it tells me very little.
But my foresight tells me much - that this is just the beginning. And while we are still many, and most of us are innocents, we are alas unlikely to stumble upon the guilty so soon.
As for our chief suspect of the moment, I do not think it very were-ish behaviour to call attention to oneself so quickly, as Gurthang did. He may be a clever double-bluffing wolf but it would be a big gamble to take so early on.
The hasty voters have also laid themselves open to suspicion but this does not mean necessarily that they ARE suspicious.
I myself will wait a while to cast my vote.

[Boromir88]

Originally posted by Mith: Boromir also spoke swiftly.... given that this village has been so peaceful until now, it hasn't given him much in the way of employment opportunities, maybe he has been on a work creation scheme. And how does he know so much about bears...

Believe in what you may my dear Mith...also, I'm sorry but it doesn't take a microbiologist to figure out what bear prints look like.

Well, my Sauce Pan Man, I think it may be that I worded myself wrong. Of course I think we should go on a wolf-hunt, just not a chaotic one that sends masses of people to their wrongful death.

I'm not by anyway near casting my vote. Of course, I have a few suspicions, but I think it's good that we sit back and wait for everyone.

I will say Mithalwen's recent posts have come out to be a bit odd. In her reasoning for voting for Gurthang. Now, I have my own supsicions of Gurthang, but not simply because he posted first. May I ask you this...for the most part your first post makes sense, but there's one little phrase that gets me suspicious in your first post...
Maybe if we leave these werewolves alone, they will leave us alone.
I think it's been made quite clear that the wolves don't want to leave us alone, they're here to kill, so I hope this was just a suggestion?...Do you think this is a strategy that we should pursue?

[SamwiseGamgee]

Well, well, well, my friends. We are all becoming rather hysterical, aren't we? Can't you see that this is exactly what those foul beasts of destruction want, you fools! We must remain calm, as the man of many saucepans has said.

However, one must remain on one's toes. And so, to Mormegil I turn. Baseless accusations and rantings? This time, child, I shall put those down to rather too long spent in the presence of dangerous fumes, but let it be known: I'm keeping my eyes on you, laddy!

Gurthang, it appears you have explained yourself well, doesn't it. Were it not for a certain development I would be very close to casting my vote for you. But no. I think you are simply a misguided individual, not evil. So, this incident- what is it?

Mithalwen, you call for the death of Gurthang. Why? Your explanations do not wash with me, frankly, and I find your behaviour most suspicious. Are you not, in fact, simply voting for he with most fingers pointed in his direction in order to start a reaction? Yes, you'd like that, wouldn't you? Most suspicious, most suspicious indeed.

[Gurthang]

Boromir, it is clear to me now that this village will not leave these werewolves alone. We have started a wolf-hunt, and it will not end until they are dead or we are. Which is what I feared. If it could have been possible to get the wolves to simply stop the killings, it would have saved many innocent lives. Yet now both we as villagers and them as wolves will be killing. Any possibility of a peaceful end is gone.

I must admit that in all my travels and defenses of animals, I've never come across werewolves before. In fact, the only time I've even heard of them was when they had already been destroyed by a village, or they had destroyed the village. I've always liked to be optimistic and believe that they are misunderstood. But according to what SamwiseGamgee says,

Origianlly posted by SamwiseGamgee
For most of my life I have toiled and worked to gain a better understanding of Wargs, and in doing so my path has often crossed that of a werewolf- not without a shudder running down my spine I hasten to add. One thing I have learned above all else, and this we must agree upon fellow friends of Hamlet: werewolves ARE NOT people. They are cold, vicious, systematic killers whose sole aim in life is to bring pain, misery and suffering upon all those they come across. The fact that by day they mascarade as friendly villagers cannot be allowed to dim our vision.

it seems that they will not be satisfied with just Oddwen's death.

I want to again stress that we should take our time in this matter. Not to say that we should just sit around and wait for them to kill us, but rather find credible evidence before we make descisions. I have received two quick votes already, the very thing I have been speaking against. Please, take your time before voting.

[wilwarin538]

This is terrible. Oddwen always was one of the only ones who was interrested in my research. I will miss her deeply. :(

At this moment I can't say I am ready to vote for anyone. I will be keeping my eyes on Mithalwen, her vote was strange and I believe Gurthang was just playing his role.

[Meneltarmacil]

Of those who voted for yon Animal Rights Activiste, I suspecte Mithalwen more than I do LMP, as her so-called "arbitrary" choice looketh a greate deale more like bandwagoning to myselfe. It doth indeede sound like foule play.

Whatever ye case may be, I believe we shouldst watch those who vote for Gurthang by ye ende of this Daye closely. Verily, I tell thee, verily a Wolfe or a Beare or both shall be among them, unless I am mistaken in my reasoning or they are refusing to bandwagon as it woulde cast suspicion upon them.

But as for nowe, I shall waite to vote until later this Daye.

[Alcarillo]

My suspicion is also now cast towards Mithalwen. Gurthang is just not suspicious enough for me, and I'm not risking killing off a seer by voting for LMP. Then again, anybody could be the seer, and this could just be a deceitful trick. Mithalwen seems to have drawn too much attention to herself. I am definitely thinking of voting for her, but I'm cautious to do so so early into the day. As with everybody else, I will wait.

Here's my suspicion list:

1. Mithalwen
2. LMP
3. Gurthang

[CaptainofDespair]

Having done some internal discussion, I believe I have come to a satisfactory vote. Gurthang does not seem suspicious any longer. It is too early to tell if it is merely him playing up the role of activist, or the signs of a wolf/bear/cobbler. Being that I was never suspicious of LMP, as random guesses at lynchings seem reasonable on day one, my vote is not swayed that way. Instead, I will cast my vote towards Mithalwen, as her earlier bandwagoning vote seems odd. It could be a possible sign however, that LMP and Mithalwen are both wolves.

++Mithalwen

[SamwiseGamgee]

CoD, your vote is brave. But I must say, I am convinced that you are correct. I was at first loathe to vote so early, but I cannot hold back any longer. I find Mith's behaviour most suspicious, and I have to do it, may Wargy forgive me.

++Mithalwen

[Laitaine]

*taps thighs like a set of bongo drums and sings in D minor*

Oh woeful day within our town, my song cannot express
The fright and sorrow people feel when faced with certain death!
The noble Oddwen had no power against these wolves’ volition,
They tore her skin and slashed her flesh beyond all recognition!
It was no doubt a valiant fight our healer gave the beasts
Unfortunately, not good enough, as she is now deceased!
But friends, let us not mourn too much for our Oddwen’s demise,
We must move on and try to cut these werewolves down to size!

*sighs in beat*

Had not my minstrels perished in a baking accident,
We could perform a funeral march that simply screams “lament.”
But since they’re dead, let’s move ahead and kill off this wolf-scum
And show them that though we may look it, we’re not all that dumb!

I choose to wait and view the votes of others in our group
Though it seems Gurthang or Mithalwen are sure to leave our coop…

*blows mournfully into recorder*

[arcticstorm]

Right now, I am not suspicious of Gurthang in the slightest. Because simply, Gurthang's actions are not those of a wolf, but rather, at the best, just what he claims to be, an ordinary villager/ Animal Rights activest, and at the worst a cobbler. No wolf would say anything to make people a little suspicious of him right off the bat. And if he is the cobbler, right now, he would be the least of our worries, we need to get rid of that bear, and soon. The sooner we can get rid of him and focus solely on the wolves, the more members of our village will stay alive.
Right now, I am most suspicious of Mithalwen, but I am not ready to commit anything yet until I have heared some more evidence.

[mormegil]

Well well things are moving rather quickly are they not? We already have 4 votes. I'm surprised that we do and it makes me look seriously at all 4. In particular Captain of Despair and Samwisegamgee and to a lesser degree Mith. Samwise's bandwagoning was odd and I will look at that lad closely for that and for talking down his nose to me...the man who will make this town of rubbish rich, that is if I decide to share my future weath.

[wilwarin538]

I am still not suspicious enough of anyone yet to vote and it seems, because of time differences, I may not be able to vote at all this Day. Unless I wake early, which I don't think will happen.

I wanted to inform you of that so the lack of a vote from me doesn't come as a surprise.

[Durelin]

Hmmm.... All these 'thuthpithious' people...

It's interesting to see that we have all focused just on about three people: Gurthang, lmp, Mithalwen. There are many people who have been staying under the radar as of now. Focusing on anyone specific at this point is essentially random accusation followed by some lovely bandwagoning, which could easily get an innocent person killed. Of course, it could also get a wolf or the bear killed, but the law of averages says otherwise, considering that decidedly the majority of us are innocent. At this point, I feel obligated only to not jump on the great bandwagon of doom (cats are very independent, you know), since there is little more I can do. Thus, I must pick at almost complete random: in other words, someone who has done a very good job at posting and simultaneously remaining 'unsuspicious.'

So... Drum roll, please...

++Firefoot

No hard feelings, please. There's nuthin' to go on.

Now time to stalk some shrews, followed by a nice stretch in the dirt, a lovely bath...and then it's bed time for me.

[Meneltarmacil]

I think I have waited long enough to vote. Following my previous suspicions, my vote goeth to:

++Mithalwen

Suggestion: If ye Seere findeth ye Beare, he/she mightst want to make sure everybody knowest it. I do not want ye Seere to die, but ye Beare is a major concerne, as pointed oute before.

[Gil-Galad]

Hear Ye Hear Ye, i am sad to report the death of fair Oddwen, any help with the burial shall be greatly appreciated

(i have to read over the past posts before i shall cast my vote for evidence)

Mithalwen:3
Gurthang:2
Firefoot:1


after reviewing the posts, i have decided to cast my vote to

++Gurthang

no hard feelings chap, my reasons have already been said by other people, so instead of wasting time...

[arcticstorm]

Durelin, while I agree that a random accusation may get a wolf killed, I disagree in that all accusations need be random today. Let us focus on the facts of the case for a little bit:
1.Oddwen is dead
2. WE have heared from most of the village, have had about two hasty votes, and at least three votes against people because of it.
3. There have not been many leads into the who behind the murders\
4. The nature of wherewolves is that they will not let us be until they have killed us all.
5. While it is bad to lynch an innocent villager, it is even worse to lynch two ro three villagers on the first day, if one of them is guilty, and two innocent, we will still lose some more from our number at night. and then they will be even closer to their goal.
so although I am not 100% sure of the guilt of Mithalwen, it is better to lynch one person on the first day instead of putting two or three in danger. I will go ponder the course of events for a while before actually posting my vote, but right now Mithalwen tops my suspicion list but when I return, I will give you all my final vote. Hopefully by that time I will have more to go on

Today of all days will inspire random voting, but we still need to be wary of them. Unfortunately, our day is over halfway through and we still have not gotten any solid information against anybody. But I think your accusation against firefoot is still unfounded.

But there are more important matters at hand, Where is our illustrious grave-keeper, and why has he not helped us in our search for the truth? Has he not had time enough to prepare Oddwen for buriel and offer his own two cents worth into our debate? Let him come and let us know who he beleives is responsible for this dastardly deed.

edit:disregard my last statement, crossposted with Gil

[Boromir88]

Well, this is going to be my last shot of internet access before the day ends, so here comes my thoughts along with a final vote...

Gurthang, was my original biggest suspicion, at one time I felt pretty sure I was going to vote for him. But recently I think he's explained his stance well (atleast for now), and I don't find a good enough reason to vote for Gurthang.

Mithalwen has been the person that seems to be growing in more fame around here, or atleast one of the center of talks as to who is getting it. I just find it difficult to jump on the wagon and vote for someone that is not here to defend themselves and defend their position, no matter how strange their "voting techniques" are. But then again, the lady Oddwen was unable to defend herself. Since we are dealing with some monstrous animals, I'm afraid fairness isn't something that we should focus on so early on. Clearly it seems as even Mithalwen will agree with that..."If you can't be fair, be arbitrary"

There are a few others that have attracted suspicion as well and I don't think it wise to just solely look at Mithalwen and Gurthang (who seem to be the two main talks). I mean mormegil comes out with his random list of the three wolves, which is odd in my eyes, but I wonder if this is just from an odd alchemist or some wolfish trick? And lmp is unable to be here quickly voting, casting his decision, barely before talks started. Now, could this be he just doesn't have the time to be here, or was he quickly trying to start a bandwagon recognizing some people were suspicious of Gurthang?

So, with all that, as difficult as I find to do this, being fair isn't something that I'm concerned with right now. Lives are at stake, and if that means finding the wolves (and bear) who did this, then being "fair" just sometimes doesn't work. I atleast don't think it works early on, it's pretty much a flip, and odds are stacked against us, but action must be taken...

++Mithalwen

[Alcarillo]

Somebody must go to their death this dreary day, so I am voting for

++Mithalwen

She certainly has attracted a lot of suspicion. Gurthang has lost most of his suspicious-ness in my eyes. He certainly has explained himself, too. His actions don't look very wolfy/beary, either. LMP has only posted once and confused us all with his quick vote. Who knows what he is? Seer, cobbler, whatever. I'm just too puzzled by him. I will keep my eyes on him, though. Mithalwen is the oddest of these three.

As for Mormegil's sudden predictions, they certainly make him a target. At the moment he doesn't worry me too much.

[Nonnacedak]

I must retire to my shack therefore I must make a decision. Mithalwen seems to me to be the most likely person to get lynched at the moment. I daresay we all have very little evidence to go off but hey there are rules to life we must follow so let the lynching's begin!

++Mithalwen

Anyone who has voted at this point can very easily be wrong or right with so many culprits and so little evidence. Well Im off to dream about the trout!

[mormegil]

This bandwagon against Mithalwen is moving too fast! If she is innocent, I do not know, we innocents are giving far too much cover for the wolves. People are simply voting for her and saying that their reason is, in essence, because everybody else is doing it she is might suspicious. Admittedly her behavior was a bit odd but to me on this first day that is less telling than somebody's who is ready to vote for somebody based on popular opinion.

So far Mithalwen has gathered 6 votes
CaptainofDespair
Samwisegamgee
Meneltarmacil
Boromir
Alcarillo
Nonnacedak

have voted for her in that order. I would feel fairly confident in saying that if Mith is innocent we have at least one wolf in that pack (pun intended) and if I were to narrow it even further I would choose the following 4 at my top suspects from that small list

Samwisegamgee
Meneltarmacil
Boromir
Alcarillo

and I will add further to my notorious lists and say

Meneltarmacil
Alcarillo

are the most suspect in my opinion.

They have been moderately vocal but haven't said too much. They avoid any risk at all and vote on the easy train where they hope to hide in the large numbers. their votes are critical ones 3 and 5. The 3rd puts Mith in the front and the 5th makes it an uphill battle for Mith to survive.

This vote is possibly a bit random but I feel most strongly (though I do have some doubt of course on this day) that

++Meneltarmacil

is the most likely wolf among my list.

[mormegil]

Sorry for the double....

I would strongly suggest that any true innocent think a bit more before they jump on a bandwagon. This is a very dangerous thing to do on DAY 1. We don't want to give too much cover to these wolves.

Oh and Gurthang is innocent

[Laitaine]

Friends, the day is growing short and votes have flown around
Yet I’ve not seen a single person to be guilty-found.
True, Mithalwen’s accusations are somewhat strange to see,
But she had little time to post and must speak her mind quickly
I myself have little time to post in this debate,
Therefore I understand quite well her cursed time constraint.
Gurthang has already eyebrows raised ‘cuz of his job,
Yet there is little proof to say he leads the werewolf mob.
No doubt we jumped on him because he’s easy to accuse,
I do not want to lynch him just because of his rare views.

At first for me, it was LMP who had earned my suspicion
It seemed his quick vote for Gurthang could be a secret mission.
He voted fast and disappeared, and little proof was said
That Gurthang was the one that our fair village should make dead.
But I recall he couldn’t stay--he had just one chance to vote.
Therefore I waver in my choice and everything I’ve wrote.

It seems to me the likely wolf among us would be smart
(S)he is probably one we’ve been ignoring from the start.
It is the character of wolves to stay out of limelight
Therefore, our choices of Gurthang or Mith hardly seem right.
Since it’s Day One and therefore unclear what we know,
I take a guess at those who look LEAST LIKELY to be foes.
Who here has been somewhat accusing but stays out of blame?
I chance it is the rogue who took Alcarillo for his name.

*wails with grief, burying face in recorder*

If only peace reigned in this town, instead of twisted fear
And we must all vote for someone, even though it seems unclear…


++ALCARILLO

[Gurthang]

I've been looking over everything that has been said, and I must say I can't make much sense of it. A lot of it seems to be bandwagoning here and there, some around me and some around Mithalwen. I'll agree that she is acting supsicious, yet I am disinclined to vote for her because she claimed a lack of time to post. I'll be keeping her under my eye, though.

Other than that, Durelin's posts have been somewhat confusing and her choice of vote for Firefoot was a bit startling. Mormegil keeps bringing out his lists, and then Boromir, Alcarillo, and Nonnacedak all jumped on the Mith wagon. There seems to be so little to go on, and yet too much at that.

That said, a vote must be made. I will go with:

++Durelin

She makes me the most uneasy and confused, and her vote for Firefoot was based on the fact that Firefoot wasn't suspicious. That seems rather odd to me. It may be true that the wolves are hiding well and looking innocent, but that doesn't mean we should attack those who look innocent just on that hunch.

[Alcarillo]

and I will add further to my notorious lists and say

Meneltarmacil
Alcarillo

are the most suspect in my opinion.

They have been moderately vocal but haven't said too much. They avoid any risk at all and vote on the easy train where they hope to hide in the large numbers. their votes are critical ones 3 and 5. The 3rd puts Mith in the front and the 5th makes it an uphill battle for Mith to survive.


You accuse me of being only moderately vocal, but that is simply because I can barely make a definite decision (and who can? It's only day one). I find the evidence against all a bit shaky. I voted for Mithalwen because no others seemed suspicious enough to me. This is only the first day, so we're bound to make a few mistakes as we make shots-in-the-dark before we get real ideas about who is who. And you accuse me of hiding in large numbers, but nobody wants to stick out like a sore thumb, plain for blood-thirsty werewolves and paranoid villagers to see and mistake as a threat. I just don't want to seem like a gifted or a bandwagon-starter (it seems that I might've joined one though!), prime suspects.

I wouldn't put too much concern on vocality. Some people are just more/less vocal than others, those in the middle.

P.S. I'll short change you the next time you buy a drink!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

mormegil comes out with his random list of the three wolves, which is odd in my eyes Morm's accusations cause reactions and reactions are our only clues thus far. I don't say that he's quilty nor that he's innocent. All I know is that his behaviour is reasonable.

Mith said: "It is also possible that LMP is the Seer." I find this odd for two reasons. 1) Why would she want to associate Lmp with the Seer? If she really thinks he is the Seer she should keep it hush-hush. But I think all this is even weirder because 2) I think Lmp is just obviously not the Seer.

Also, as Firefoot pointed out, Mith's self-defense did seem a tad over-hysterical. But would a wolf be so clumsy? We should not underestimate them!

I think Alcarillo's suspect list is odd. 1. Mith, 2. Lmp, 3. Gurthang It seems that many of our villagers think along those same lines. But don't you see, the wolves are probably just hiding on the background waiting for the bandwagoning to begin - it's even possible that since the villagers are doing so fine with throwing their votes for certain "suspicious" people by themselves, the wolves don't have to bandwagon and they can appear as innocents.

Alcarillo's suspects have one thing in common: they have somehow drawn attention to themselves by acting differently than the majority. I think a wolf wouldn't do so on the first day. Not even as a double bluff.

[The Saucepan Man]

Apologies to one and all for my extended absence this day. Alcarillo's beer must be stronger than I thought. :eek: ;)

Well, much has happened since I spoke last, and I have been musing over all that has been said and done.

The most significant development is that, following initial suspicion against Gurthang and lmp, a significant backlash has developed against Mithalwen.

I must admit that, as I mused upon what has been said, I too felt Mithalwen to be suspicious, even before I saw the bandwaggon against her begin to develop. The fact that it has makes me question my initial conclusion. However, my reasons for suspecting her remain firm. She defended her need to vote early rather too forcefully in my view (in post #26). She also reacted very defensively against mormegil's random accusation (a tactic to elicit reaction, in my view) - compare her reaction (post #30) to that of Firefoot (post #32). And arcticstorm didn't even bother to respond to it. And her vote for Gurthang might be taken as an effort to nurture and develop the (then) bandwaggon against him, which was based on nothing but the fact that he posted first and 'in character'.

So, while I am loathe to join a bandwaggon, I am still minded to vote for Mithalwen. Even if she is innocent, her death may prove to us to be helpful for I believe that mormegil (in post #62) talks sense and that at least one Wolf will (if she is innocent) have voted for her at a decisive stage in the bandwaggoning. His list of those who would be most suspicious in those circumstances makes sense to me too, ie:

Samwisegamgee
Meneltarmacil
Boromir
Alcarillo

Although I would (reluctantly) have to include Firefoot on the list as she was the second to vote for Mithalwen (and quite early too). At least one other Wolf will (if Mithalwen is innocent) probably be amongst those who have voted quite deliberately to avoid the bandwaggon, so as to distance themselves from it.

If Mithalwen is guilty, then we should look carefully at Gil-Galad, who seems to have tried to swing the voting away from Mithalwen and back towards Gurthang, with little more reason than there was to vote for him at the beginning of the Day (post #57).

I also think that we should bear in mind those who have contributed, but said little to aid the Village in our cause (and who might thereby be hoping to 'fly under the radar'). In my view, this list comprises:

CaptainofDespair
Encaitare
Gil-Galad
Laitaine
Lalaith
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
wilwarin538

Of those who have spoken more frequently, I am least suspicious of mormegil, Firefoot (hence my reluctance above) and dancing spawn, largely because their thoughts seem to be along the same lines as mine. That, of course, doesn't make them innocent. But I am less inclined to view them suspiciously at this stage.

The time approaches to vote, and I am probably going to cast mine for Mithalwen for the reasons stated above. But I am conscious of the fact that every vote now for her brings her closer to the point where her death will be certain. I have time, and so will hold off for the time being in case anything further of significance is said.

[The Saucepan Man]

My apologies to Firefoot - having checked back, I see that she has not yet voted. I mistook her early suspicion of Mithalwen as a vote.

CaptainofDespair was the second to vote for Mithalwen, so (if Mith is innocent) I would add him to morm's list.

Edit: Wrong again! CaptainofDespair was first to vote for Mith. SamwiseGamgee was second!

I really must pay more attention. :eek:

[Lalaith]

Sooth, sooth....while I slept much has happened. Sundays always were strange days.
In our little Hamlet, some of us speak out more than others. This is not an indication of guilt. Also, those that speak more are useful to our initial investigations, be these speakers guilty or innocent. Why, you ask? An innocent speaker is active and will bring forth reaction from others. And if they are eventually found to be guilty, and have said much, we can examine their thoughts retrospectively, while a taciturn wolf leaves a most unrewarding body of evidence behind him.
Nor is quietness an indication of guilt. Even in these dreadful times there may be duties a villager must carry out which keeps them away from this place where are opinions are heard, particularly at what my foresight tells me our descendants will call "a weekend."

Mithalwen and Gurthang are speakers, and for the reasons stated above I would be reluctant to lose them so soon.
Is it too late to save one or the other? Perhaps. But of those who have put forth their reasoning here, I am inclined to agree with Mormegil and dancing spawn. But who to vote for? I am inclined to abstain as I do not like to send what would, under the laws of probability, almost certainly be an innocent to his/her death but this death will happen whether I will it or no and to sit out is the act of a coward.
To cast a vote at this stage for someone who has not yet garnered any votes at all, is also a way of avoiding responsibility, I fear. At the moment, looking after what has been said and done, I suppose it is Captain of Despair who I am most suspicious of, but there is little point casting a vote for him.
So making my choice from those who have already received votes I will cast my vote for
++Meneltarmacil

PS Mr Saucie, I would absolve Laitaine from your Miner's List of the Silent. Composing all one's replies in verse takes time, I suspect!

[arcticstorm]

Unfortunately, there is still not much to go on. and with at least two or three, maybe more, who have not yet voted, this day could still go either way. BUt I am convinced that random voting may be needed. But the most important thing right now, is not to allow more than one person to die, with one or two people who may still get tied with Mithalwen in the last hour of voting. Even though I am no way near as suspicious of him as I was originally, I reluctantly must post my vote for

++Mithalwen

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm about to go to make some glass vases and I don't know if I'm able to come back before the voting is over so I must cast my vote now.

The votes thus far are:

Gurthang
Lmp, Mith, Gil

Mithalwen
Captain, Samwise, Menel, Boromir, Alcarillo, Nonna, Arcticstorm

Firefoot
Durelin

Meneltarmacil
Morm, Lalaith

Alcarillo
Laitaine

Durelin
Gurthang

I think that Mith has acted really suspiciously but I don't think we are dealing with stupid wolves. On the other hand, if she dies, we don't have to ponder her weird acting later. 15 villagers out of 20 have voted. Have all the wolves and bear have voted? If all remaining villagers vote for someone who already has votes, Mith is off the noose [edit: too late]. If not, Mith's going to die or the wolves, bear or cobbler can tip the scales and force a tie (which would be more or less a catastrophe...)

This is somewhat against my own principles but 1) We cannot afford a double lynching 2) At least we have some reasons to suspect her and the voting isn't just random.

++MITH

Someone said once that it isn't bandwagoning if you really think somebody's guilty. Only, I don't find anyone particularly guilty today. But it's not fair either to throw your vote away because you fear that you look suspicious if you vote like the majority.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, nightfall approaches and not much more has been said to aid me in my deliberations. Although I agree with arcticstorm and dancing spawn that we must not allow a tie to occur in the voting today.

So I will go with my current suspicion (reasons stated above) and vote for Mithalwen. Although I believe that this vote will seal her fate, so be it. I have little reason to vote for anyone else at this stage. I hope that she is guilty. But, if not, maybe her death will serve to aid our cause.

If she is guilty then it seems quite likely that no Wolves were amongst those who voted for her, at least earlier on, because the voting has been quite tight all the way through.

But if she is innocent, then I believe that at least one Wolf and quite possibly the Black Beorning too were amongst those who voted for her.

Since I completely fudged the analysis of those who voted for Mithalwen earlier, here is an updated (and hopefully accurate) list - in order of voting plus the state of voting following each vote:

1. CaptainofDespair (Gurthang -2; Mithalwen - 1)
2. SamwiseGamgee (Gurthang -2; Mithalwen - 2)
3. Meneltarmacil (Gurthang -2; Mithalwen - 3; Firefoot - 1)
4. Boromir88 (Gurthang -3; Mithalwen - 4; Firefoot - 1)
5. Alcarillo (Gurthang -3; Mithalwen - 5; Firefoot - 1)
6. Nonnacedak (Gurthang -3; Mithalwen - 6; Firefoot - 1)
7. arcticstorm (Gurthang -3; Mithalwen - 7; Firefoot - 1; Meneltarmacil - 2; Alcarillo - 1; Durelin - 1)
8. dancing spawn (Gurthang -3; Mithalwen - 8; Firefoot - 1; Meneltarmacil - 2; Alcarillo - 1; Durelin - 1)
9. The Saucepan Man (Gurthang -3; Mithalwen - 9; Firefoot - 1; Meneltarmacil - 2; Alcarillo - 1; Durelin - 1)

Hopefully this list will aid us in the unfortunate event that Mithalwen is innocent.

Either way, at least, the wolf-hunt continues ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Oops, fogot to vote ...

++ MITHALWEN

[SamwiseGamgee]

Well, by my understanding the voting looks like this:

Mith: 9
Gurthang: 2
Meneltarmacil: 2
Firefoot: 1
Alcarillo: 1
Durelin: 1

Most interesting. It does seem that the campaign against Mithalwen is gathering a head of steam, doesn't it- surely this hasn't been aided by the silence of said individual over such a period of time.

So, mormegil, it would appear you are viewing me with suspicion. I am no bangwaggoner (?), let me tell you. I voted for Mith because (1) I didn't think I'd be online again before day ended and (2) with that in mind, on the balance of probabilities I thought Mith the most suspicious. Now, however, my mind is in turmoil. I wonder if in fact you, mormegil are one of those nocturnal blood-letters. Random patterns of accusation and a predisposition to making good looking lists may seem the innocent work of a bumbling alchemist, but I'm not so sure. Alas, I have cast my vote and so little can be done. Nonetheless, my voice should be heard.

[Firefoot]

Overnight Mithalwen seems to have gathered enough votes that mine doesn't really count, but here's what I think about each person who has gathered votes:

Gurthang - Not very suspicious; I think he was just playing his role.

Mithalwen - I have found her suspicious almost from the start. I'm afraid she isn't a wolf, but I think she could be. She has given more reasons for us to vote for her than anyone else; my only fear in lynching her is that she could be gifted and she hasn't been able to defend herself.

Firefoot - I'm not suspicious of myself.

Meneltarmacil - I'm semi-suspicious of him. His posts have been short and contributed little; he joined the bandwaggon for Mithalwen. He could be a wolf trying to slip in under the radar.

Alcarillo - I've had a niggling suspicion of him from the start for no reason at all. He's saying the right things, and it's probably nothing. Nothing that I'd lynch him for, anyway.

Durelin - Her vote for me was... odd. I don't particularly suspect her, though, as she had to vote early and hadn't had time to gather evidence on anyone.

I think that Morm's list of Samwise, Menel, Boromir, and Alcarillo may have some merit, though I am not very suspicious of Boromir at this point.

++Mithalwen

Even though I hate band-waggoning, I think she may be the most likely suspect that we have at the moment, and her death could be telling.

[The Saucepan Man]

SamwiseGamgee - your list is correct save that I believe that Gurthang attracted 3 votes (lmp, Mithalwen and Gil-Galad).

Having recalculated, I see that it was dancing spawn's vote and not mine that sealed Mith's fate. Ah well, I voted believing that it was down to me and I will not be shirking my responsibility for participating in her death (whether she be guilty or innocent) simply because it was not.

[Oddwen]

And so all at once it was decided. Mithalwen, who was always so generous with her excellent cheeses, would be the first to be lynched.

"I hope the rest of the Village realizes the sacrifices they're making," muttered Mith. "Sacrificing cheese for revenge..."

Saucie looked dismayed. "Aye, I did enjoy the ale and cheese tasting."

But die Mith must, the why had been told, how was now the big question.
After deliberation, they rigged up a gallows not far up the mountain out of an old tree that had somehow grown with a bend as if it had forseen the use o't.

"Well Mith, if you are innocent, no hard feelings, eh?"

Mith levelled her steelly glare at the speaker.

"You're all cheddar heads, you know? Out of all the Villagers you had to choose me."

"I think it was a "gouda" choice," muttered one. "Get it? Gouda...ah, never mind."

One moved closer to place the rope around Miths neck. With a snarl, Mith exploded!

The Villagers gasped in horror at the transformation! Eyes they had thought so kindly before went blood red and fairly glowed. Hands previously so genarous with cheese clawed the air as if to shred it to bits, and ears once thought shapely, well-rounded and shell-white went pointy and...hairy.

As one man, crying "You Meunster!" the Villagers forced the rope over Mith's neck, and pulled the stepstool from underneath her.

Mith tried to shout curses at her executors, but all that came out were strangled growls. Her struggles grew less, and with a not-at-all-called-for obscene gesture at the crowd, the body suddenly went limp and dead.

The Villagers immediately started an impromptu square dance, accompanied by Laitaine who played in a key that was not minor.

They had killed a Werewolf, and on the first DAY no less!

Living:

Alcarillo
Arcticstorm
littlemanpoet
Boromir88
CaptainofDespair
Dancing Spawn
Durelin
Enca
Firefoot
Gil-Galad
Gurthang
Laitaine
Lalaith
Menel
Mormegil
Nonnacedak
SamwiseGamgee
Saucie
Wilwa

Dead:
Mithalwen (Werewolf) Lynched by Villagers on DAY 1

This is precidented! And unexpected!
DAY one is ended, it is now NIGHT two. Wolves may PM, Sherriffs may not.
I need names from the remaining Wolves, the WereBear, the Ranger, the Hunter, and the Seer.

[Oddwen]

The Villagers awoke suddenly the next morning. What was that sound that just occured? A pop, a crackle, a snap? Then came another noise - an earth-shattering ear-splitting heart-rending mind-bending toe-tapping eye-batting atogether bad-sounding crash.

Hastily, they threw on what clothes they could reach, and assembled in the Village Square, which was actually hexagon in shape, but that doesn't come into this tale.

What was that smell that did have a part in the tale, which was told met their nostrils? That of ale and beer and wine? Had Saucie belched? Nay, he vehemently denied that. Then, a horror caught their eye. The bar...the Ugly Duckling...was it gone?!?

They started towards it, but many cast themselves the ground and wept, unable to go on. Few ended up at the wreck, and those that did were sore tempted to weep also. There were bear tracks everywhere. Bear hair was caught on splinters of wood, a tree nearby was scored fourteen feet high with claw marks, and the mangled body of poor Alcarillo was coated with beer and bear saliva.

Such a wailing had never visited Hamlet, and it seemed as if it would never end. They treated the body of Alcarillo with the respect you'd expect for a bartender, and debated what to do with the ex-bar.

They were arguing wether it was best to set the ruins on fire, when suddenly they noticed that the voice of their alchemist hadn't spoken up on the chemical danger yet. Horrified, they counted what Villagers were left. Yes...they were only seventeen.

There was a mad rush to his house, which fortunately was still standing. A hope unlooked for sprung into their hearts.
"Maybe he slept through that!" they said to themselves. After all, Mormegil was slightly deaf from many so-called "Controlled Volatile Experiments". "Yeah, after all, The Mormegil cannot be slain, save by mischance, or an evil arrow from afar."

Knowing this, they passed on knocking and went straight inside. There he was, lying in his bed, covers pulled all the way up so his feet stuck out.

Funny, they thought, we don't remember him having red sheets....red? Uh-oh.

Fearing the worst, they pulled the covers back. Seeing the worst, they jumped back.

Morm's head was almost completely blown away. They noticed then a strange burnt smell in the air, which they had at first taken as some experiment gone awry. The walls and ceiling were spattered with blood, which spoke of a explosion.

Apparently, the Wolves had stuck firecrackers in Morm's (always the heavy sleeper) ears, and set them alight.

Pinned to the bedstead, they found a note reading thusly:

Morm go BOOM!


"They didn't bother to rhyme," they said in relief. Then they turned the paper over.

So will this ROOM!


Screaming, they exited the building (fortunately avoiding a jam in the doorjamb) and hurled themselves to the ground as the building exploded in colored flames behind them.
So began another DAY.

-------------------------

Living:

Arcticstorm
Boromir88
CaptainofDespair
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Encaitare
Firefoot
Gil-Galad
Gurthang
Laitaine
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man
Wilwa

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Chicken (Poultry) - Crushed by a bear on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2


DAY 2 will end in 24 hours. Wolves, stop PMing, Sherriffs may start.
Please embolden your votes.

[The Saucepan Man]

Alas poor Alcarillo and mormegil. And alas poor Alcarillo's bar. I knew it intimately. :(

Unfortunately, they were both likely suspects to die since it was evident from yesterday's proceedings that they were most probably innocent - of Werewolvery at least. Mormegil's "random" accusation of Mithalwen helped to flush her out and Alcarillo's vote was one of the decisive moments of the "bandwaggon" against her. I salute them both posthumously for their important roles in our good fortune on DAY 1.

And fortunate indeed it is that Mithalwen turned out to be a Wolf. Not only because we now have one less of the fiends to deal with, but also because over half of the remaining Villagers voted for her and the voting was tight throughout most of the Day.

More in a moment when I have sorted my thoughts ...

[Lalaith]

What an extraordinary 24 hours in this village. The slaying of a werewolf the first day is unprecedented indeed. I for one did not think a wolf would be as talkative as Mithalwen was.
But I am very sorry for the loss of Alcarillo and Mormegil, they were deep-thinking insightful members of our community who could have made useful contributions in this dreadful time.
I don't know what the rest of you think but I am inclined to absolve the first four on Saucie's list of votes for Mithalwen, of being werewolves.
That is not to say that one of them couldn't be the cobbler or the Black Beorning. Neither of the Cobbler or the BB knows who is a wolf or a villager any more than the rest of us do, am I right?

[Meneltarmacil]

LMP doth not really stande out as being suspicious to me. Yes, he mightst be ye Seere, ye Cobbler, or possibly even a Beaste, but his poste doth not give him much reason to suspecte any of these things. He did say that he’d be unable to say anything else and that doth explaine why he woulde be silente afterwards, and why he voted so quickly. It was lucky that he caused Mithalwen to jump on his bandwagon, though.

Those who voted for Mith should be investigated in mine opinion. It is certainly possible that a Wolfe woulde vote for her to cast off suspicion, and if so, only one Wolfe woulde probably be found among them. However, as there is also a Beare in our midste, more than one foule beaste may be among them.

Gil-Galad’s vote for Gurthang looketh suspicious to me (ye Saucepan Man noticed this earlier), as his vote tied Gurthang and Mithalwen for ye most votes immediately after my vote placed Mith in ye position to be lynched. Almost as if he was trying to keep her from yon gallows...

In defense of myself, I pointe oute that I was already suspicious of Mithalwen before anyone voted for her.

Finally, to appease yon Animal Rights Activiste, I suggeste using ye guillotine for lynchings, as it maketh for a quick deathe unlike ye gallows.

[CaptainofDespair]

Well, well...

We got ourselves one wolf. But, it is indeed sad that we must lose Alcarillo and mormegil, possibly due to it. We must avenge them, by gutting the foul beasts who have slain them (after a hanging, of course)! But, where to look, and who to suspect?

Well, I have a few suspects on my list of 'Who done it?':

LMP- I believe there might be a possible connection between the 'early' votes of LMP and Mithalwen. Since Mithalwen turned out to be a werewolf, and had voted with LMP for 'Gurthang', suspicion of a connection lingers. It may be nothing, but I'd rather be sure.

Wilwarin- I view his responses as suspicious. Sure, there were the 'restraints' to voting, but he had few suspicions of anyone. It sounds like a wolf trying to avoid detection, maybe.

Gurthang- He is still questionable, though my suspicions of him are minimal at the moment. A few more insights from him might help sway me either way.

Menel- He is now on my list. His comments on switching from the gallows to the guillotine draw suspicion. Perhaps he is only catering to Gurthang's activist-ness. But, he could be a wolf or the bear, hoping to give his mates (or himself) a clean death, should they be caught. I could also just be paranoid.

Lalaith- She seems to be trying very hard to fly under the radar. Perhaps she is a wolf? We will see.

Gil-Galad- His vote for Gurthang seems suspicious. Only he, Mithalwen (known wolf), and LMP voted for Gurthang. Since I am suspicious of LMP as a conspirator, I feel Gil deserves some suspicion as well.

[Lalaith]

She seems to be trying very hard to fly under the radar

Hardly, friend shrewmeister. I was the second (by seconds) to post today. And as you can see from my post above, I no longer suspect you, of wolfishness at least.
This cobbler and bear business makes it all much more confusing, to be sure. Can someone confirm: am I right in thinking that if the Seer dreams of the Bear, s/he is told it is just a normal villager?

[The Saucepan Man]

Here is a summary of the voting on Day 1 which, I believe, may well assist us in our deliberations today. It is in the order in which each vote was cast and identifies the state of the voting after each vote cast.

1. LMP for Gurthang (Gurthang 1)
2. Mithalwen for Gurthang (Gurthang 2)
3. CaptainofDespair for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 1)
4. SamwiseGamgee for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 2)
5. Durelin for Firefoot (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 2; Firefoot 1)
6. Meneltarmacil for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 3; Firefoot 1)
7. Gil-Galad for Gurthang (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 3; Firefoot 1)
8. Boromir88 for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 4; Firefoot 1)
9. Alcarillo for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 5; Firefoot 1)
10. Nonnacedak for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1)
11. Mormegil for Meneltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1)
12. Laitaine for Alcarillo (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1)
13. Gurthang for Durelin (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
14. Lalaith for Menltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
15. Arcticstorm for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 7; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
16. Dancing spawn for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 8; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
17. The Saucepan Man for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 9; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
18. Firefoot for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 10; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)

Did not vote: Encaitare and wilwarin538 (although wilwa had earlier explained that she might not be able to vote).

Now, I believe that all of those who voted early on for Mithalwen are probably innocent of Werewolvery. The voting was too tight for another Wolf to risk casting a vote for her throughout much of the day. So I am fairly confident that the following are not Wolves (although any one of them, with the exception of course of Alcarillo, might still be the Black Beorning):

CaptainofDespair
SamwiseGamgee
Meneltarmacil
Boromir88
Alcarillo (as the Night’s events have so unfortunately proved)
Nonnacedak

CaptainofDespair and SamwiseGamgee could have been voting thinking that the votes would not accumulate as they did. But this would have been risky for a Wolf because much suspicion had already been cast in Mithalwen’s direction before the votes against her began to stack up.

I would also conclude that Gurthang is probably no Wolf because Mithalwen voted for him when there was a lot of suspicion against him. I do not believe that she would have voted for another Wolf in those circumstances.

Arcticstorm, dancing spawn, Firefoot and The Saucepan Man (yes, that’s me) all voted for Mithalwen when her death seemed likely or was a foregone conclusion, so their innocence is perhaps less easy to determine from the outcome. However, arctictorm and Firefoot both voiced firm suspicions against Mithalwen earlier in the Day. Dancing spawn’s vote sealed Mith’s fate and, although Mith was probably a gonner already given that I had indicated that I would most likely be voting for her and wilwa had said she was unlikely to vote, I really have no basis for suspecting her. Her contributions yesterday seemed sensible and helpful to our cause. As for me, I had already indicated that I would most probably be voting for Mithalwen before arcticstorm and dancing spawn voted. And I can assure you that I am neither Wolf nor Black Beorning.

In light of the above, I believe that we should today focus on those who went against the “bandwagonning” for Mithalwen. Of these, we can of course discount mormegil (who was in any event, as I have said, instrumental in flushing her out). The others are:

Durelin
Gil-Galad
Laitaine
Lalaith

Of these, I would say that Gil-Galad is particularly suspicious because he tried to switch the votes back on Gurthang just when they were beginning to gather for Mithalwen. With his vote, he brought it back to a tie between them. At the very least, he has a case to answer. I am also curious about Durelin’s seemingly random vote for Firefoot. She seemed very keen to divert the Village away from the ‘obvious’ suspects, one of whom we now know to have been a Wolf.

And we should not forget littlemanpoet who voted rashly yesterday for someone who I believe is not a Wolf, and who was mildly defended by Mithalwen.

The remaining two Villagers are Encaitare and wilwarin538, neither of whom voted. Wilwa gave advance warning that she might not be able to and, although that does not clear her, it makes her less suspicious in my eyes. Encaitare, on the other hand, contributed only once (and rather aggressively so) and chose not to vote. I suspect that she may be the Cobbler.

Based on the analysis above, my current main suspects are as follows (in order of suspicion):

1. Gil-Galad
2. Durelin
3. Laitaine
4. Encaitare
5. Lalaith
6. LMP

Of course, all of the above is aimed at hunting down a Wolf. I realise that it does not help us at all in identifying the Black Beorning. But then what do we have to go on as far as the Bear is concerned? I would dearly like to track him or her down too, but I fear it may be difficult. Does anyone have any ideas on that score?

[wilwarin538]

I know this might sound crazy but I don't beleive that we will have any idea of who the Beorning is until he's killed atleast three people. Then we could try to figure out who would be most likely to want to kill those three people, who knows we might even be able to figure it out with two , or maybe even one person. So, who would want to kill Alcarillo?

PS:My reason for not voting is because of time, day starts and ends at 8am for me. So I will be voting before I go to bed which would make my vote a little early.(sorry if this isn't supposed to be here :o )

[Lalaith]

Alas I do not have time to respond fully to your post Saucie but on this:
But then what do we have to go on as far as the Bear is concerned? we are agreed.

Which is why I repeat my question above - can the Seer reveal the Bear?

[wilwarin538]

...can the Seer reveal the Bear?

Yes, I believe s(he) can, its the Cobbler they can't reveal is it not?

[Oddwen]

Yes.

[Gil-Galad]

Hear Ye Hear Ye Sad news again for the death of two residents of our fair village! Mormegil and Alcarillo! Tis a shame

[The Saucepan Man]

So, who would want to kill Alcarillo? Well, Alcarillo voted for Mithalwen, so that doesn't help. Other than her, he voiced suspicions of Gurthang and LMP. But that was early on, when most others were thinking along the same lines, so it doesn't really take us much further either. Laitaine voted for Alcarillo but, unless she is going for a bold double-bluff, it would seem rather clumsy for the Bear to kill, on Night 2, the person he or she voted for on Day 1.

Unfortunately, I suspect that we will need an incredible stroke of fortune to bag the Bear during the first few Days. Still, we have a number of possible candidates for the other two Wolves. I outlined my top suspects earlier. I would particularly like to hear from Gil-Galad, Durelin and Laitaine.

Edit: Cross-posted with Gil-Galad. Correction - I would like to hear more from him.

[Gil-Galad]

Usually i hate decisons, but i was rather rushed and in my haste voted for Gurthang, when i read back later in the day, my suspiscon turned to Mithalwen, bu alas it was too late, she was already voted out and to my(and the rest of the village) she was a werewolf, also i didn't intentionally vote for Gurthang to tie up the votes for Mithalwen, as i said before, Gurthang seemed like the more likely culprit

[The Saucepan Man]

Usually i hate decisons, but i was rather rushed and in my haste voted for Gurthang, when i read back later in the day, my suspiscon turned to Mithalwen, bu alas it was too late ...Well there was nothing said after you voted that made Mithalwen seem any more or less supicious than she already was, save for the fact that the votes against her accumulated. The basis upon which I suspect most voted for her was already there before you voted. Do you mean that you did not read what had been said up to that point when you voted? If so, it would surely have been better to wait until you had a chance to do so before voting.

... also i didn't intentionally vote for Gurthang to tie up the votes for Mithalwen, as i said before, Gurthang seemed like the more likely culpritYet you posted the number of votes that had been cast up to that point when you voted, so you clearly knew that you would bring them to a tie.

I'm sorry, Gil, but I really don't buy your explanation. For the time being, you remain at the top of my suspect list.

[Gil-Galad]

Well to be honest, i really never read much of it, i just skim through and whichever seems more reasonable i go with...so most of my votes aren't really how i feel......now you don't know what to do

[Durelin]

My word! What a victory! One wolf down, only two more to go. Though we have that horrible Beorning to deal with...

And of course, I must be the suspicious one because I did not vote for Mithalwen. That's a bit much to assume, seeing as no one really knew that Mithalwen was a wolf. And I take quite the offense to that...I am decidedly feline, and not in the least bit canine. If I was trying to draw attention away from Mithalwen, I think I would've done a better job. :p But oh well.

Well, Saucepan Man's already done a good job with this, but I'm going to do some listing, too, just to put some things together.

Who voted for Mithalwen (in order):

CaptainofDespair
SamwiseGamgee
Meneltmarcil
Boromir88
Alcarillo - innocent
Nonnacedak
arcticstorm
dancing spawn
Saucepan Man
Firefoot

Who didn't vote for Mithalwen, not in order:

Durelin
Mormegil - innocent
Lalaith
Laitaine
Gurthang
Gil-Galad
lmp
Mithalwen - wolf

Who didn't vote at all:

Encaitare
wilwarin

The two remaining wolves have to be within the second group (excepting Mormegil) or third group, or within the tail end of the first group. The bear could be anywhere.

I really have no idea who could really be said to be suspicious. Let's see...

Durelin - Sorry, I'm innocent. Lynching me would be a complete waste of time.

Lalaith - Her (I hope I'm right) vote for Meneltmarcil was strange, I think. No stranger than my vote, certainly, but still, strange. Mormegil was the first to vote for him, and though we know him to be innocent now (sadly), it is strange that Lalaith followed this vote.

Laitaine - Interesting vote for Alcarillo, though no more suspicious than my vote, again. She was the only vote for Alcarillo, unless I am mistaken. Which may be the case, since it is quite early in the morning for me.

Gurthang - He drew some early suspicion, and then voted for me. Mithalwen was a wolf, and so I doubt he is one as well. His vote for me was justified, I think.

Gil-Galad - His vote for Gurthang was a little odd, but though it came later than other votes for Gurthang, it was still an early vote, and thus he had little to go on.

LMP - First to vote, and voted outright for Gurthang. It seems something got in the way of him being here to vote later. 'Tis understandable. Plus I doubt I wolf would be as stupid as to vote first...unless they're that smart...hmm. ;)

Mithalwen - Well, she was a wolf. She also voted for Gurthang. LMP-Mithalwen-Gil-Galad...hmm...

Saucepan Man - He talks a lot, he likes making lists, and he voted for Mithalwen a little late in the precedings. Though that doesn't say much, since it's good to wait as late as you can to vote.

Firefoot - Voted last for Mithalwen, when she knew her fate was sealed. But, it's the same thing as with Saucepan Man. Late votes are good.

Encaitare - We've barely heard from her. This could be for a variety of reasons. We need to hear from her before I can really say anything. Same thing goes for Wilwarin.

What's scary is that the bear could be anywhere. The bear could be CaptainofDespair, or SamwiseGamgee, or Meneltmarcil, or Boromir88...it could be anyone. The first three, and perhaps the fourth could also be a wolf. Could. It could be that they did not expect Mithalwen to get many votes, and thus separated themselves from being seen in cahoots with her through voting for her.

We need to weed out the bear almost more than we do the wolves, since I don't think we can take two kills a night for very long. Though the bear may kill the wolves, the likelihood of this isn't on our side.

Sorry for the horrible length of that...

[Meneltarmacil]

Gil, thou verily didst not give muche of a reasone for thy decisione, all thou saidst was that thy reasons had already been stated by other people. As ye reasons given were only because of an in-character commente that had been misinterpreted (this had been mentioned by ye time thou posted), I suspecte thou hidest thy true reasone.

And my commente about ye guillotine was merely a bit of in-game joking arounde, Captain.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well to be honest, i really never read much of it, i just skim through and whichever seems more reasonable i go with...so most of my votes aren't really how i feelHmm, if you are a Wolf I would have expected a much more spirited defence than this. Funnily enough, your flimsy defence makes me suspect you less. But, for now, you remain within my sights.

......now you don't know what to doDo any of us, really? The Wolves' knowledge is the most complete and yet there are gaps in that which we may be able to exploit to our profit.

Durelin, your long post confirms my suspicions of you. You say a lot, but you are not really 'saying' anything - well, nothing which has not been said already.

And I feel that we need to hear more from Encaitare, wilwarin538 and Laitaine. We have killed one loud Wolf. Perhaps the other two are more the silent type ...

[CaptainofDespair]

I really have no idea who could really be said to be suspicious. Let's see...

Durelin - Sorry, I'm innocent. Lynching me would be a complete waste of time.

Lalaith - Her (I hope I'm right) vote for Meneltmarcil was strange, I think. No stranger than my vote, certainly, but still, strange. Mormegil was the first to vote for him, and though we know him to be innocent now (sadly), it is strange that Lalaith followed this vote.

Laitaine - Interesting vote for Alcarillo, though no more suspicious than my vote, again. She was the only vote for Alcarillo, unless I am mistaken. Which may be the case, since it is quite early in the morning for me.

Gurthang - He drew some early suspicion, and then voted for me. Mithalwen was a wolf, and so I doubt he is one as well. His vote for me was justified, I think.

Gil-Galad - His vote for Gurthang was a little odd, but though it came later than other votes for Gurthang, it was still an early vote, and thus he had little to go on.

LMP - First to vote, and voted outright for Gurthang. It seems something got in the way of him being here to vote later. 'Tis understandable. Plus I doubt I wolf would be as stupid as to vote first...unless they're that smart...hmm. ;)

Mithalwen - Well, she was a wolf. She also voted for Gurthang. LMP-Mithalwen-Gil-Galad...hmm...

Saucepan Man - He talks a lot, he likes making lists, and he voted for Mithalwen a little late in the precedings. Though that doesn't say much, since it's good to wait as late as you can to vote.

Firefoot - Voted last for Mithalwen, when she knew her fate was sealed. But, it's the same thing as with Saucepan Man. Late votes are good.

Encaitare - We've barely heard from her. This could be for a variety of reasons. We need to hear from her before I can really say anything. Same thing goes for Wilwarin.

What's scary is that the bear could be anywhere. The bear could be CaptainofDespair, or SamwiseGamgee, or Meneltmarcil, or Boromir88...it could be anyone. The first three, and perhaps the fourth could also be a wolf. Could. It could be that they did not expect Mithalwen to get many votes, and thus separated themselves from being seen in cahoots with her through voting for her.

We need to weed out the bear almost more than we do the wolves, since I don't think we can take two kills a night for very long. Though the bear may kill the wolves, the likelihood of this isn't on our side.

Sorry for the horrible length of that...

Me? A Bear? *gasps* What nonsense! I can assure you, on the honor of my shrews, that I am no such thing.

As for you, why not lynch you? Maybe you have something to hide? Are you a gifted? Hmm...Into the future I cannot see. Perhaps you can?

[Laitaine]

Friends, forgive me, I must leave, but I will be back soon
I must run errands this morning, and I’ll be back around noon
(EST)

[Durelin]

Durelin, your long post confirms my suspicions of you. You say a lot, but you are not really 'saying' anything - well, nothing which has not been said already.
Hehe...so, all I had to do was post a long post, and that's it, I'm a wolf? Wow... Considering you, Mr. Saucepan Man, have made rather long posts yourself.

And what's wrong with me not really saying anything? I'm trying to get everything sorted out in my head in my own way. I cannot attack anyone yet. There is too much time left in this Day to really do so.

[littlemanpoet]

Congratulations, fellow innocents, on nabbing a werewolf first time. I am happy that my early vote was instrumental in flushing her out (I will admit that I didn't plan on that kind of strategic use of it, but now I've learned something useful).

One of the last five people who voted for Mithalwen (by which point her fate seemed pretty much decided) is probably a werewolf.

Gurthang, you seem no more guilty to me now than any others here. As I said in my first post, it was a purely random vote. Glad I did it, though I'm apologetic that it was you.

I'm not going to bother defending myself but concentrate on attempting to flush out more werewolves, or the cobbler, or the werebear. If you want to vote for my lynching, that's your business.

My laryngitis is pretty much healed (in other words I have more internet access now).

Now to study previous posts.

[The Saucepan Man]

...so, all I had to do was post a long post, and that's it, I'm a wolf? Wow...No, I suspected you already because you voted against the flow when votes were already beginning to stack up for Mithalwen and she was drawing closer to the noose. All you have said in defence of that is that, had you been trying to divert the voting from Mithalwen, you would have done a better job. I suspect that the remaining Wolves were trying to draw votes away from Mithalwen (one of them at least, and quite possibly both), but could not do a better job without being too obvious about it in the event that they failed (which, of course they did). So your explanation does not clear you in my eyes.

And you yourself have noted that Lalaith's vote was 'strange' and that Laitaine's vote was 'interesting' when, as you imply, they did much the same as you. Rest assured that those two remain on my Wolf suspect list for the same reason that you are there.

And what's wrong with me not really saying anything? I'm trying to get everything sorted out in my head in my own way. I cannot attack anyone yet. There is too much time left in this Day to really do so.While I agree that it is far too early in the day to begin voting, it is not too early to begin discussing likely suspects. Otherwise, when the time comes to vote, we will all be shooting in the dark.

I have identified my suspects and my reasons for suspecting them. But the list is by no means cast in stone. I am willing to listen to all who speak. And I consider it to be the duty of all innocent Villagers to speak their mind and contribute towards the Village's cause. Anyone who does not do so will join my suspect list.

[Durelin]

I am willing to listen to all who speak. And I consider it to be the duty of all innocent Villagers to speak their mind and contribute towards the Village's cause. Anyone who does not do so will join my suspect list.
Alrighty then.

SaucepanMan, you are a wolf.
arcticstorm is the other wolf.
Firefoot is the werebear thing.

CaptainofDespair is a gifted innocent villager.
Lalaith is the Seer.
LMP is the Cobbler.

And just as a note, remember that cats don't wear shoes.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Plus I doubt I wolf would be as stupid as to vote first So, are you confessing? :p

Well to be honest, i really never read much of it, i just skim through and whichever seems more reasonable i go with...so most of my votes aren't really how i feel......now you don't know what to do That was just the shakiest explanation I've seen. I'm toying with the idea that Gil is our Cobbler. He's acting quite suspiciously to me and his lamenting seems too exaggerative.

I'll post more later when I've reread everybody's posts.

[Gurthang]

Alas, poor Alcarillo and mormegil. We villagers have taken great loss, especially I think with mormegil, who I beleive was onto something. Alcarillo will also be missed, her ale was the best and helped me clear my head.

Durelin, I voted for you yesterday, for the very reason that Saucepan Man pointed out. You're still on my suspect list.

Meneltarmacil, I have become somewhat suspicious of you. Mormegil was the first of just two to vote for you, and now he's dead! That does bring suspicion onto you. I wouldn't think a wolf would be so obvious, yet what better place to hide than where a wolf wouldn't be? You're on my watch list, also.

Note: My watch list is not the same as my suspects list, so you're not in the spotlight yet, per se.

I think we should also look to Mormegil's supsect lists to see what we can find. If I've found everything, the list included Me(early on), Firefoot, Mithalwen and Articstorm(those three just to watch reactions), Alcarillo, and Meneltarmacil. WE know Mith was a wolf and that Alcarillo is innocent. That leaves Meneltarmacil, Firefoot, and Arcticstorm. Those three all voted for Mithalwen:

Meneltarmacil to put her in the lead to get lynched.
Arcticstorm was the vote one before her fate was sealed.
Firefoot after she had gotten a majority.

I would look especially at Firefoot and Arcticstorm, since Mith being lynched was already highly likely when Arcticstorm voted, and was already guaranteed when Firefoot voted. They have made my suspect lists.

Gil-Galad has also made me suspicious, for his vote for me and his flimsy reasoning. I'm watching him also.

EDIT: cross-posted with Durelin, Saucey, LMP, and dancing spawn. Durelin is acting even more odd.

[Durelin]

So, are you confessing? :p
No, just confusing. :D

That should be an 'a', of course...

[The Saucepan Man]

Alrighty then.

SaucepanMan, you are a wolf.
arcticstorm is the other wolf.
Firefoot is the werebear thing.

CaptainofDespair is a gifted innocent villager.
Lalaith is the Seer.
LMP is the Cobbler.Well, that's helpful. Thanks. :rolleyes:

Reasons would be nice ... (though not for the Gifteds - let's not do the Lycanthropes' job for them, eh?)

I'm toying with the idea that Gil is our Cobbler. He's acting quite suspiciously to me and his lamenting seems too exaggerative.I'm now thinking along the same lines and veering more towards Durelin as a (feline) lupine. And that's not just because of her random accusation of me. I have already stated my reasons for suspecting her.

[arcticstorm]

As of right now Laitaine is on the top of my suspect list toward the black beorning. She have beleived yesterday that she caught a wolf with Alcarillo and when the villagers didn't agree with her she decided to take the matter up into her own hands. It would be easier for the beorning to take the victory with the wolves out of the way. There would be no possiblity of her being killed at night, and with no partners, not much evidence would be able to be found. So I am guessing that last night she killed who she thought was a wolf. To pave the ground for her victory.
Those are my thoughts on the beorning, more to come later

[Durelin]

Reasons:
SaucepanMan and arcitcstorm both voted for Mithalwen when Mithalwen's death was sealed.

SaucepanMan says too much, and really has no idea what he's doing. arcticstorm says too little, and seems like he's trying to lay low a little too much.

Firefoot just doesn't feel right to me. Yep, that's all the reason I have. I don't know how else to catch the bear...considering they want pretty much everyone dead, eventually.

EDIT: Sorry, but it's time for my nap now. I'll have to sneak back later to vote and see if you all are going to lynch me.

[CaptainofDespair]

As of right now Laitaine is on the top of my suspect list toward the black beorning. She have beleived yesterday that she caught a wolf with Alcarillo and when the villagers didn't agree with her she decided to take the matter up into her own hands. It would be easier for the beorning to take the victory with the wolves out of the way. There would be no possiblity of her being killed at night, and with no partners, not much evidence would be able to be found. So I am guessing that last night she killed who she thought was a wolf. To pave the ground for her victory.
Those are my thoughts on the beorning, more to come later

Interesting theory, Arctic.

It does seem reasonable. My vote might possibly go towards her this day. I'd very much like to find a wolf. But since the wolves can only kill one a night, and there are two left, it might still be prudent to get the Bear done away with, so that we might only lose one this night.

However, you could be a wolf, trying to get rid of the competition.

So, my list of suspects now includes Laitaine, as the possible Black Beorning.

[The Saucepan Man]

Meneltarmacil, I have become somewhat suspicious of you.If Meneltarmacil is a Wolf, he is a bold one indeed to take such a significant role in a fellow Wolf's demise and then kill one of the Villagers who voted for him. Perhaps he felt that the seeming innocence arising from the former act would cover the latter one. But I believe that there are more likely candidates.

As of right now Laitaine is on the top of my suspect list toward the black beorning. She have beleived yesterday that she caught a wolf with Alcarillo and when the villagers didn't agree with her she decided to take the matter up into her own hands.I agree that it is in the Bear's interests too to kill the Wolves. But surely, given his part in Mithalwen's lynching, Alcarillo was one of the less likely suspects for Werewolvery. And, as I said earlier, a Bear who kills the one who voted for them is either clumsy or very bold.

SaucepanMan and arcitcstorm both voted for Mithalwen when Mithalwen's death was sealed.Agreed (although there was still a theoretical chance at least that someone else would be lynched when I indicated that I would probably be voting for her and when arcticstorm voted).

SaucepanMan says too much, and really has no idea what he's doing.Saying too much is not a crime, provided that one is trying to help the Village by rooting out the beasts which beset us. That is what I have been endeavouring to do. What about you? It seems to me that your posts only serve to spread confusion.

Admittedly, I am pretty much shooting in the dark. But aren't we all? Except the Werewolves, who at least know who their foes are. And, if I really have no idea what I am doing, how come your first (long) post of the day pretty much followed the reasoning set out in my (long) post?

Firefoot just doesn't feel right to me.Yes, Firefoot could be the Black Beorning. But so could just about anybody at the moment, unfortunately.

[Encaitare]

OOC statement: The reason I didn't vote was because I didn't realize voting would end so early (8 AM for me). The last game's voting ended around 12:30-1:00 PM, and I was used to that schedule. I'll try not to let it happen again, although it will mean I will always have to vote somewhat early.

-------------------

So some of you actually want me to talk now, do you? Is murder what it takes for you to want to talk to me? You're sick, all of you! O, would that my love were here...[/raving]

SaucepanMan says too much, and really has no idea what he's doing. arcticstorm says too little, and seems like he's trying to lay low a little too much.

Saucie could just be trying to help, as zealously as he does it. His lists are certainly in-depth. Arcticstorm has attracted a lot of suspicion:

I would look especially at Firefoot and Arcticstorm, since Mith being lynched was already highly likely when Arcticstorm voted, and was already guaranteed when Firefoot voted. They have made my suspect lists.

arcticstorm is the other wolf.

But then there's also this:

However, arctictorm and Firefoot both voiced firm suspicions against Mithalwen earlier in the Day.

As for Laitaine, our little minstrel: I am not sure what made her suspect Alcarillio. The only thing he seemed to do was defend Gurthang, which could be suspicious -- but I do not believe that Gurthang is a wolf.

8. Boromir88 for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 4; Firefoot 1)

I think it's safe to say that Boromir is not a wolf, because he would not have tipped the scales towards voting for her -- before he voted, Gurthang and Mithalwen were tied.

I'll be skulking in the shadows over there until this evening, I think.

Edit: cross-posted with Saucie.

[Boromir88]

It was a good bag on Day 1, I credit a lot of it to luck and won't likely get another one tonight. But, there was also some good work done by a lot, and if we can keep together again, solve things through we may yet get another wolf (or even the bear).

I agree Saucepan that is it certainly the time to start deliberating and talking suspects.

Now my original suspicion going into the day was actually Alcarillo, alas I was sadly proven wrong. I say this because Mithalwen had accused myself and Gurthang of posting "early," but Alcarillo who posted before me did not get this accusation. (Post 16) Perhaps she was trying to protect a fellow wolf? And despite Alcarillo's vote for Mith, I still was suspicious (and still think a wolf is hiding there). Again, this was not so.

So, right now topping my list is Gil-Galad. I think it is conclusive to say that with gathering suspicion on Mithalwen, and prior votes towards Gurthang, Gil-Galad was hopefully trying to swing back some people to protect Mith.

So does that mean that the three wolves are working together (all voting for Gurthang)? I don't know about lmp, he doesn't seem to have made anything yet atleast.

Durelin, all Saucepan is doing is getting together who voted for who and trying to figure it out that way. Right now I think that's the best chance we got. Long posts and writing a lot doesn't make someone guilty I'm afraid.

I still think one of the other wolves is in the group who voted for Mithalwen:

Captain of Despair
Samwise
Meneltarmacil
Boromir
Alcarillo (obviously this isn't the case)
Nonnacedek
Dancing Spawn
Saucepan
Firefoot
Arcticstorm

Right now I have absolutely nothing to go off of, but I do have an idea on who to watch.

Now anyone could be the bear. Right now, since it is hard to see who is the bear it may be in the club who did not vote. (Wilawarin, and Durelin). As I look more closely at the posts I will get more onto who I believe the bear is. I still think the bear should be are main priority, since as long as the bear is around there will be two killings a night. But it would surely be hard to find the bear at this point, unless the Seer happens to pick one out in his/her dreams.

[Firefoot]

I don't care if you decide to lynch me. But don't lynch me because I was the last to vote; Day ends at 7 a.m. my time, so I have two choices: vote super early or super late. Personally I prefer late because it lets me see people's responses overnight. And I don't care to get up around 3 am just to get my vote in early. So you will probably be seeing a lot of later votes from me.

And, as some have pointed out, I was already suspicious of Mithalwen before I went to sleep; my vote was leaning that way anyway.

I'll be back shortly with something more substantial after I've reviewed the thread and thought a little bit more.

[Boromir88]

One I must make a few corrections in my previous post, the other I was also cross-posting with Encataire. One I had said...

Right now, since it is hard to see who is the bear it may be in the club who did not vote. (Wilawarin, and Durelin).
In my mistake it was actually Wilwarin and Encataire who did not vote. And now seeing this, I don't have much suspiscion towards either of them. My main susipiscion when making this post was actually towards Durelin who seems to be handing out roles to try to get some attention away from him.

I agree with Firefoot's statement....
And, as some have pointed out, I was already suspicious of Mithalwen before I went to sleep; my vote was leaning that way anyway.ement...
It was actually her post (post #41) that got me looking at Mithalwen and turning my suspiscion away from Gurthang.

And I am also faced with Firefoot's case, only for me it's better for me to vote earlier (which is about 11-12 pm my time) then get up at 7 am and vote.

[Meneltarmacil]

Meneltarmacil, I have become somewhat suspicious of you. Mormegil was the first of just two to vote for you, and now he's dead! That does bring suspicion onto you. I wouldn't think a wolf would be so obvious, yet what better place to hide than where a wolf wouldn't be? You're on my watch list, also.Ye Saucepan Man hath already said what I woulde have said, so I am not going to argue with thee over thy notions. It seemeth people had been getting suspicious of me due to my supposed bandwagoning and ye Wolves may be taking advantage of this by killing Mormegil and casting more suspicione on me as a resulte. Lalaith jumped on Morm's suggestione, perhaps she coulde be a Wolfe.

[wilwarin538]

Originaly posted by The Saucepan Man
Durelin
Gil-Galad
Laitaine
Lalaith

Of these, I would say that Gil-Galad is particularly suspicious because he tried to switch the votes back on Gurthang just when they were beginning to gather for Mithalwen. With his vote, he brought it back to a tie between them. At the very least, he has a case to answer. I am also curious about Durelin’s seemingly random vote for Firefoot. She seemed very keen to divert the Village away from the ‘obvious’ suspects, one of whom we now know to have been a Wolf.

And we should not forget littlemanpoet who voted rashly yesterday for someone who I believe is not a Wolf, and who was mildly defended by Mithalwen.


I agree with most of that. The way Gil voted was very suspicious and his defense wasn't that great. I am also slightly suspicous of Durelin. LMP I am not altogether worried about, but I will keep my eyes on him. Regarding Laitaine and Lalaith, well I'll have to read their posts before commenting.

So right now my only real suspects are Gil-Galad and Durelin. Once I reread the two Ls' posts I will comment on them.

[wilwarin538]

Well, I have reread Laitaine and Lalaith's posts and I am now suspicious of them. Reasons are that both of them voted for people who eather didn't have any votes or only had one, it could be that they either suspected those people or wanted to distract attention from Mith. Also in post #68 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=406026&postcount=68) Saucie made a list of people who had posted but had said very little. Out of those 8 people Lalaith chose to only defend one person, Laitaine.

So you have heard my oppinion, you may hear from me again within the next 2 hours but then after that you wont hear from me for a while. I will be able to vote today.

[Firefoot]

I had started out thinking that there was probably at least one wolf that had voted for Mithalwen. However, looking at those who voted for her later (I doubt anyone who voted for Mith early is a wolf, for reasons other people have already stated), I don't find myself particularly suspicious of any of them. I feel pretty comfortable with SpM and Arcticstorm, and Dancing Spawn seems pretty innocent to me. I might look twice at Nonnacedak, but I'm not overly suspicious.

So, the rest of villagers are:

LMP - I'm not too concerned about him. He had a valid reason for voting early, and based on what evidence we had at the time, Gurthang was a reasonable choice. He's not completely off my radar, but he's extremely peripheral.

Gil - He is acting very strangely, and his defenses are extremely weak, though I won't go into that too much since other people have pretty much said how I feel. Most confusing to me is his statement that his votes aren't usually how he feels. His vote for Gurthang certainly seems like an attempt to draw attention away from Mith. I have no idea what he is playing at, and his moves seem foolish for either a wolf or a villager.

Durelin - I'm not sure if I'm suspicious of her or not. First she votes for me for no apparent reason. Then she apparently doesn't have anything on me, saying "Late votes are good." Now she claims I'm the were-bear because I don't feel right to her. Um, sure. Besides, she claims Arcticstorm and SpM both are wolves, with both of whom I feel fairly safe. I can't tell if she is a confused innocent or a wolf trying to remove the spotlight to innocents.

Laitaine - I need to hear more from her before I decide anything. I'm only a little suspicious of her, mostly for her odd vote of Alcarillo.

Gurthang - I don't think he's a wolf because it would have been incredibly silly for Mithalwen to be the second person to vote for a fellow wolf when he is the only one with votes. Could be a bluff but I doubt it, as his posts don't seem terribly suspicious to me.

Lalaith - She has the feel of trying to get by under the radar. She hasn't really said a whole lot when she has posted. I don't really know how I feel about her.

Encaitare - I'd like to hear some more from her, though at this point I'm not overly suspicious. I would like to know who she finds suspicious.

Wilwa - I don't really know about her either. I'd like to hear more from her as well.

I've pretty well left the werebear out of my musings since I figure it could be anybody, even someone that I'm pretty comfortable with. I think we'll have to wait and see on that one, though Arctic's theory of Laitaine seems fairly credible to me.

Edit - cross-posting with Wilwa and Menel.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

WereMithalwen said yesterday: My initial instinct is that those who speak first may be eager for a reason. To get in quick with sorrow for the dead and to manipulate opinion.Four first persons to post were Gurthang, Alcarillo, Boromir and Mormegil, respectively. Morm is now proven innocent. Could this mean that the other three can be excused, too, from wolvery (is that a word)?


Nonnacedak has posted only twice. She/he (I'm so sorry, could someone please enlighten me concerning this matter) tried to separate her/himself from the culprits quite fiercely. By Nonnacedak: "I am surrounded by liars and I am but a humble trout fisherman." "Us innocents must filter through the lies to save our poor village!" Nonnacedak was the sixth person to vote Mith, though. I'm suspecting that s/he could be the bear.

But it's Gil who is my main suspect today. He posts very little. Yesterday he posted once to vote for Gurthang but he didn't even give reasons why. He said that his "reasons have already been said by other people". Who? Today he lamented the two deaths and posted two unbelievably flimsy explanations for his actions. Now, is he a wolf, cobbler or neither of those?

One thing that bothers me is Mith suspicions about Lmp being the Seer. She said it twice that she's quite sure about it yet the remaining wolves didn't kill him during the night. Is Lmp one of the wolves?

Random thought of the day: Imagine if Saucy is the bear. He's being so helpful in identifying the wolves. He even said himself: "I agree that it is in the Bear's interests too to kill the Wolves." He'll kill us all when we're not looking. :eek:

I see that Lalaith & Laitaine seem suspicious to a few of you. I ponder that theory a bit later.

[Lalaith]

I don't post so much because I like to read and ponder everything that has been said before jumping in with my own ha'porth. And with so many villagers, there is a lot to ponder!
I have my own theories on yesterday's voting which will take time to explain and I will do so later tonight. But I would like to throw in one question for others to ponder (other than my question about the Bear and the Seer which I repeated twice but no-one has answered! :( )
Anyway, my question is this. I am puzzled by Gurthang's voting yesterday. When he voted he had 3 votes against him, and Mithalwen six. In his shoes, with seven people still left to vote, I would probably have tried to guarantee my survival by voting for Mithalwen. But he didn't, he voted for Durelin. I'm fairly sure Gurthang isn't a wolf but this was a strange thing to do, could he be the Cobbler?

(And a vote against a cat for an animal activist, even more curious!)

[Meneltarmacil]

Lalaith doth seem a little suspiciouse, as I mentioned earlier, but I am not that confidente she is a Wolfe. She holdeth seconde place on my suspecte liste.

Gil-Galad, though, is ye moste suspiciouse in mine opinione, due to his vote for Gurthang yesterDaye withoute a cleare reasone after Mithalwen gained ye moste votes. If I had to vote now, I woulde vote for him.

Durelin may be ye Cobbler trying to draw suspicione towarde those who verily are innocente, but she is not as suspiciouse as either of ye others.

So Ye Olde Suspecte Liste goeth as follows:

1. Gil-Galad
2. Lalaith
3. Durelin

[Boromir88]

Just another possibility to Lalaith's and Laitane's defense of one another, they could even be the Sheriffs? Or they couldn't who knows.

Four first persons to post were Gurthang, Alcarillo, Boromir and Mormegil, respectively. Morm is now proven innocent. Could this mean that the other three can be excused, too, from wolvery (is that a word)?Dancing Spawn, don't forget Alcarillo was another innocent.

Also I find your thoughts on Nonnacedek interesting. The sharp defenses of Mithalwen pointed out by Firefoot (post #41) got me mostly in my decision to vote for Mithalwen. Certainly it can be seen as it's the same case for Nonnacedek.

The thing I keep seeing is if someone's accused and they are harsh in their defense they're most likely are guilty. If someone's innocent, and they know they're innocent, there should be nothing to fear. There was the Indian belief where they would heat up an iron bar, and would touch it on the tongue of a suspected liar. If it burned the person he was a liar, if it didn't he was ok. The belief was if you know you're not a liar there shouldn't be nothing to fear, so the saliva in your mouth will stop your tongue from burning (only placed it for not even a second, not like they held it there). But, when you're afraid you don't produce enough saliva, the rod would burn you, then you're a liar. Bottom line is we can't check people's saliva, but those who are harshly defend themselves are afraid of something. Those who know their innocence should not be worried.

[Lalaith]

Aye, fair words you speak, Boromir, but against this I would say, that I have seen cases in villages stricken by tragedies such as ours, where the innocent said nothing, assuming their innocence would cry out to the heavens, but returned after absence or sleep to find their fellows had bandwaggoned against them and they were doomed.
So I will say this, as a last word before my return later tonight, to those who have voiced suspicions against me: that if I am a wolf I am a very stupid one. At the time I voted, Mithalwen the wolf had six votes against her and Gurthang had three. Any fellow wolf with half a brain-cell would do one of two things. He would either decide Mith was doomed anyway and vote for her himself to divert suspicion, or he would try to save her, or at least make a tie, by voting for Gurthang, the only other possible villager who was at risk of lynching. He would not, as I did, vote for someone completely different who had little or no chance of being lynched.

And I would also say that in our haste to put our own words forward, let us not forget closely to study the words of others.

[The Saucepan Man]

I've only time for a brief comment right now. I'll be back in a few hours to elaborate further on what I say below.

... other than my question about the Bear and the Seer which I repeated twice but no-one has answered!I had assumed that Oddwen's quick "yes" provided the answer - ie that, if the Seer dreams of the Bear, he or she will be identified to them as the Bear.

Random thought of the day: Imagine if Saucy is the bear. He's being so helpful in identifying the wolves.I'm not.

And here are my thoughts on how we might identify the Bear. The Bear doesn't mind who is lynched during the Day, as long as it is not him (reference to male pronouns to include the female). So it seems to me that it is in the Bear's interests to stir up suspicion and, as subtly as possible, to throw out a fair few accusations, while trying not to act overtly suspicious himself. He will also be looking to jump on any credible ideas on who should be lynched and try to develop them, in order to keep the lynch mob as far away as possible from himself. He will be particularly keen to promote any theories as to who (other than him, of course) might be the Bear.

From what I have observed, the Villager who most fits this pattern of behaviour is CaptainofDespair. I am fairly certain that he is not a Wolf, but I am becoming increasingly suspicious that he may be the Black Beorning. When I come back later, I'll explain why in more detail.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Just another possibility to Lalaith's and Laitane's defense of one another, they could even be the Sheriffs? Or they couldn't who knows.I was thinking about that, too.

Dancing Spawn, don't forget Alcarillo was another innocent.
Oh, right, thanks! But this doesn't change my theory. On the contrary, Alcarillo's innocence supports it.

Any fellow wolf with half a brain-cell would do one of two things. But we don't know how many brain-cells the beasts have. In other words, it would seem to me that randomness is a perfect disguise because it cannot be tracked down.

[Laitaine]

O Happy Blessed Yesterday, a werewolf fiend was dead
Although they aimed to kill us, it was their time instead!
O Friends Who Thought They Had No Clue, we had our first success
Amplify your efforts so we maintain our progress!
Although we killed one of those fiends, the wolves attack us still
And this time, they have slaughtered our poor precious Mormegil!
Not only that, but that Bear had to kill one of our friends,
That vicious beast has got our barman, brought him to his end!
O Foolish Me, for thinking Alcarillo was a foe
I wish there could have been a better way for us to know!
Perhaps I should explain the vote I cast on yesterday,
I chose at random someone who had not had much to say
Make no mistake, I doubted that my choice would be correct,
I just chanced a wolf would be one we would not suspect

As of right now Laitaine is on the top of my suspect list toward the black beorning. She have beleived yesterday that she caught a wolf with Alcarillo and when the villagers didn't agree with her she decided to take the matter up into her own hands. It would be easier for the beorning to take the victory with the wolves out of the way. There would be no possiblity of her being killed at night, and with no partners, not much evidence would be able to be found. So I am guessing that last night she killed who she thought was a wolf. To pave the ground for her victory.
Those are my thoughts on the beorning, more to come later


Clearly my vote was amiss, I’d followed flimsy thought
But I assure you, Noble Friends, ‘twas not my havoc wrought!
Arcticstorm, I must say that your theory is quite wise
But I encourage you to look as from a Beorning’s eyes
Why would the Bear take such a risk and draw such great attention
To kill the very person of which they had just made mention?

I think the Bear would like you all to think that it is me,
For the very reasons Arcticstorm has put so succinctly.
Believe when I say, my friends, that I am not the Bear.
And although my words mean little, listen with great care.
Arcticstorm could be simply trying to pin his guilt on me,
But I do not think this the case--his thoughts run honestly.

Saucie made a list of people who had posted but had said very little. Out of those 8 people Lalaith chose to only defend one person, Laitaine.


Lalaith did defend me when my posts took so much time
(You can imagine just how trying it is to speak in rhyme)
But I think that comment was a passing kindness, nothing more
I think Lalaith is just a normal person in this war.

It seems that there’s precious little proof to go on for today,
The only strangeness I observe is Gil’s vague-speaking way.
Of course, I too thought Alcarillo’s quietness was strange
But I was wrong on that account, so can Gil be deranged?

*dabs eyes with hankie*

Whatever is the case, my friends, my life has lost some years
I never thought a werewolf would make off with poor Morm’s ears!

[CaptainofDespair]

From what I have observed, the Villager who most fits this pattern of behaviour is CaptainofDespair. I am fairly certain that he is not a Wolf, but I am becoming increasingly suspicious that he may be the Black Beorning. When I come back later, I'll explain why in more detail.

Go ahead. Lynch me.

You'll be sorry when my death is shown as a vain enterprise. Then, you'll have another night where two will die.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Go ahead. Lynch me. O these suicidal villagers! Can't you make a case to defend yourself? It would help a tad more in discovering the true culprits.

[CaptainofDespair]

O these suicidal villagers! Can't you make a case to defend yourself? It would help a tad more in discovering the true culprits.

If I'm innocent, I shouldn't have to defend myself. The evidence will clearly speak for itself. And how would it help? If I'm innocent, it narrows down the field. Sometimes, one can only have faith that his fellow villagers aren't country-bumpkins who lynch innocents at the drop of a hat.

[Boromir88]

Dancing Spawn, I must say for myself that is enough evidence for me. If CoD is playing a bluff it truly is a bold one if he encourages us to lynch him. Though that could be the bluff, in this case I come to doubt it.

Laitaine, I wonder in how you seem to know what bad guys killed who...
Although we killed one of those fiends, the wolves attack us still
And this time, they have slaughtered our poor precious Mormegil!
Not only that, but that Bear had to kill one of our friends,
That vicious beast has got our barman, brought him to his end!
O Foolish Me, for thinking Alcarillo was a foe
(emphasis mine)

It surely does interest me in how you know that the wolves killed mormegil and the bear killed Alcarillo.

[Firefoot]

B88 - Oddwen made that clear in her death post:the mangled body of poor Alcarillo was coated with beer and bear saliva. Apparently, the Wolves had stuck firecrackers in Morm's (always the heavy sleeper) ears, and set them alight.

[Meneltarmacil]

Captain, it seemeth to me that thou art trying to use ye idea Boromir88 mentioned of ye innocente not defending themselves as harshly as ye guilty. Thou dost not defende thyself aggressively in order to make it appear that thou art innocente. As for me, I knowe not whether or not thou art a Beaste, but I shall wait for ye Pan Man to explaine why he suspecteth thee.

I would requeste that finding ye Beare be ye Seere's top priority. As ye Wolves generally seeme to leave more clues behinde, ye Seere seemeth one of the few reale goode ways to tracke downe suche a Beaste.

And may I also add that SamwiseGamgee seemeth rather quiete lately. I am not saying that he is a Beaste, just making an observatione.

Ye Olde Suspecte Liste remaineth ye same for ye momente.

[Durelin]

From what I have observed, the Villager who most fits this pattern of behaviour is CaptainofDespair. I am fairly certain that he is not a Wolf, but I am becoming increasingly suspicious that he may be the Black Beorning. When I come back later, I'll explain why in more detail.
Interesting idea, Saucepan Man. I can believe that.

Of course, CaptainofDespair's threats are ones to keep in mind. We cannot afford to lynch a gifted, even if we do have one wolf down. Two kills a night is going to hurt us badly enough.

My main susipiscion when making this post was actually towards Durelin who seems to be handing out roles to try to get some attention away from him.
Her, please, my dear Boromir. :)

[Nonnacedak]

Aye it has been a busy day with the local trout... Just to get a some info out there to everyone quickly (Because the trout are needing my special assistance atm) Im going to post a quickie but I will make a more detailed post at a later time today. Let me just say I helped lynch a wolf (which was rather exciting I must admit) and I believe I was 6th or so in the voted for Mith therefore proving my innocence as not being a wolf. I must read over the post's more in depth to point some fingers and help my case.

[Boromir88]

Firefoot, well that explains it. That obviously never crossed my mind.

Well, just forget what I said Laitaine, obviously it's not going anywhere.

[SamwiseGamgee]

My goodness, I wish someone would buy us a replacement cockrel after we lost that faithful crower the night before last- now I've slept in. Nevertheless, it seems you fellow villagers of mine have been busy at the discussion table. So who do I see as suspicious here in Hamlet? Well, firstly there's Gil-Galad. The problem is, am I just bandwaggoning? But no, every argument I see laid out against him follows through and makes sense- in particular I myself noted his vote against Gurthang when it came along, rooting as I was for the death of that thrice-cursed beast Mithalwen. My eyes are placed firmly upon Gil-Galad at the moment. However, others do not escape this wizened old soul's steely gaze.

Firstly, there's CoD. I thought his randomness a little suspicious, but following his last two posts I have become even more suspicious of him. I put it to you, fellow villagers of Hamlet, that CoD is calling our bluff. Now I dare not urge you to vote, such would be folly, but I would like a better explanation from CoD and some cross-examination.

SpM, you tear me in two here. I want to trust you with all my heart, I really do, and I want to believe that your posts are long and insightful because you're thinking only of Hamlet. However, I can't get the following thoughts out of my head: (1) you voted for Mith yesterday when there was a very high probability if it wasn't in fact definite (can't remember) fact that she was going to hang; and (2) all those oh-so-helpful posts serve very well to focus everyone's attention on a whole bunch of different people except you. I don't know, man. I'm nowhere near voting for you, though, and I'm telling you because I really hope you can help clear yourself.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Seeing as double posts are allowed:

Nonnacedak, you're blowing your own trumpet for jumping on a bandwagon which was gathering steam all the time? (Post #135) That doesn't prove your innocence at all. Unlucky, kid, you just popped onto my radar!

[CaptainofDespair]

Explain myself? Hmm...that seems reasonable, I suppose.

First, I will explain my so-called 'bluff'. I have made no bluff to call. If you wish to lynch me, go ahead. Mark my words, though. If you do lynch, the Reaper will come calling for two more of you. I am not the Beorning. I am not a wolf. I don't care if you believe me or not. But it will be your heads they find in the morning.

As I won't be able to return tonight for another round, I fear I must vote.

Thus, I will vote for The Saucepan Man. Why? I have secretly been suspicious of him. He zealously seeks the wolves, yet provides little in the way of tracking down the Beorning (which should be the most important task, as wolves will take 3 days to get rid of their kill per night). Now, I know that I am not the Bear, so I count myself out. Thus, to me he and Laitaine are my only Beorning suspects. But, since I am more suspicious of him, I choose him over her. I call him a Bear in sheep's clothing!

++The Saucepan Man

[SamwiseGamgee]

A very early vote, and only just after I also voice some suspicion of SpM. Oh dear, oh dear. That's not the behaviour of an innocent villager, I don't think.

[littlemanpoet]

Sorry for not posting nearly as often as some of you, but I do have all that baking to do, during which time I CANNOT step away from my ovens and leave everything to burn.

I have done an overview of Day One. Sorry, haven't had time to look at Day Two, so sue me.

My really suspicious list:

Lalaith: She says she suspects Captain of Despair then votes for Menel. Huh?

Durelin: She votes compltely randomly for the rather innocent seeming (by all others) Firefoot. Then starts defending herself and making wild accusations as hysterically as Mithalwen the day before (Okay, I did peak at her day two posts).

my mildly suspicious list:

Boromir: Is too aggressive in his attacks against Gurthang over the in-character animal rights thing.

Encaitare: Points at Gurthang for merely being in character.

Wilwarin: for not voting when she could have.

Nonnacedak: for voting for Mithalwen because she was likely to get lynched; of course, that would be very rookie in a werewolf...

my not even remotely suspicious list:

LMP
Dancing Spawn
Saucepan Man
Firefoot
Laitaine
Captain of Despair

my probably not suspicious list:

Arctic Storm
Gil-Galad
Gurthang
Samwise
Meneltarmacil

My reasons are, in general, for the not so suspicious groups, are that you guys are making sense to me, and have so far not said anything that seems suspicious. Or, overly suspicious in the case of my final list.

Hope that helps. I'll be voting late like Firefoot, and for the same reason.

[Boromir88]

I have secretly been suspicious of him. He zealously seeks the wolves, yet provides little in the way of tracking down the Beorning (which should be the most important task, as wolves will take 3 days to get rid of their kill per night)
Well, Captain we all know you read Saucepan's post of suspecting you for the Beorning. His description of what the beorning might do seems logical enough to me. And indeed I believe he has been the only one to give insight on the beorning, everyone else (including myself) is just clueless on the matter. I agree with Meneltarmacil, best hope in finding the beorning is the Seer, but there are a lot of people to choose from so I don't see that day coming anytime soon.

LMP, whether you are still suspicious of me after this, is up to you or not. I did take back my suspicion from Gurthang after he provided a reasonable stance and have yet to accuse him of anything again. (post #59)

[Laitaine]

Go ahead. Lynch me.

You'll be sorry when my death is shown as a vain enterprise. Then, you'll have another night where two will die.

*looks up from recorder, intrigued*

An interesting statement, Captain--very risky too
It sounds as though you’re hinting we’ll regret if we kill you.
But not the normal sorrow when a single villager dies
Perhaps you are the Ranger, or you have the Seeing eyes.

*taps recorder against chin in thinking gesture*

However, this seems far too bold a taunt to ringeth true,
Therefore, O CaptainofDespair, I keep my eye on you.
I don’t know whether you’re brave or if you’ve pulled a chancy bluff
But it’s certainly confusing, and that might be enough.
“Enough,” I mean, to lynch you--a sad thought, I’m aware.
But I’d not risk my village to your ways, wolven or bear.

*purses lips* Still…

I will not vote till later, to see what others say
Alcarillo’s death has taken my self-confidence away
I would not want to vote again and be completely wrong
Therefore, I’ll watch the others’ views--then write my voting-song.

*blasts a D on recorder*

[Boromir88]

Well, now that I have looked more hard through the posts on day two, it's time to start putting some pressure on...who? Why Captain of Despair....

Coming into today I had taken Sauce's post into account and began thinking of Gil-galad. However, Gil-Galad's lackadaisakle (spelling?) defense actually seems like Gil-Galad being Gil-Galad so I am less sure of that.

So, let's see what we got...In post #95 Durelin says...
What's scary is that the bear could be anywhere. The bear could be CaptainofDespair, or SamwiseGamgee, or Meneltmarcil, or Boromir88...it could be anyone. The first three, and perhaps the fourth could also be a wolf. Could.
When reading this I interpret it as Durelin merely saying that anyone could be a the bear. Not pointing fingers at anyone, not accusing anyone, just mentioning that anyone could be a bear. So, I did not take this as an accusation, but bringing up the point that anyone could be the bear.

Someone took this differently in post #98, Captain firmly proclaims his innocence...He even goes so far as to try a little "back at you. You accuse me I accuse you." He even goes so far as to suggest that Durelin is the Seer, afraid of something is he?
Me? A Bear? *gasps* What nonsense! I can assure you, on the honor of my shrews, that I am no such thing.

As for you, why not lynch you? Maybe you have something to hide? Are you a gifted? Hmm...Into the future I cannot see. Perhaps you can?

Why would he be afraid that Durelin could look into the future? He obviously is afraid for some reason I think that post clearly shows it.

Then later on in post #123, I talk about people should only be stoutly deny their innocence if they have something to be afraid of (however I do agree Lalaith in that this always is not the case. I still think it to be an accurate way to judge).

Suddenly Captain's defense of himself seems to change in post #128 and 130...
Go ahead. Lynch me.

If I'm innocent, I shouldn't have to defend myself. The evidence will clearly speak for itself. And how would it help? If I'm innocent, it narrows down the field. Sometimes, one can only have faith that his fellow villagers aren't country-bumpkins who lynch innocents at the drop of a hat.

As Meneltarmacil points out in post 132:
Captain, it seemeth to me that thou art trying to use ye idea Boromir88 mentioned of ye innocente not defending themselves as harshly as ye guilty. Thou dost not defende thyself aggressively in order to make it appear that thou art innocente.

Now at first I will say I was skepticle of this, but as I see how Captain reacted earlier to being accused (which I didn't think it was an accusation), I think he was trying to fool us. Flip-flopper have we?

[Gil-Galad]

Go ahead. Lynch me.

that sounds like a challenge!


but yeah, i just got back from sailing, but i'll try to pay more attention, my supects list

1. Durelin
2.Laitaine
3.Mr.Saucey-the-Man-with-the-pan

[Gurthang]

Originally posted by LMP
my mildly suspicious list:

Boromir: Is too aggressive in his attacks against Gurthang over the in-character animal rights thing.

Encaitare: Points at Gurthang for merely being in character.

littlemanpoet, I just want to point out to you that you voted for me yesterday for about that same reason.

Now, I'm completely confused by CaptainOfDespair, Gil-Galad, and Durelin. CaptainOfDespair's 'lynch me and you'll see' posts are really stumping me. It is true that innocents have died and more will in these proceedings, but that doesn't me you should tell us to kill you, it just doesn't make sense. Gil-Galad voted for me yesterday saying that his reasons were stated by others. And now he is just confusing the heck out of me with his posts. Durelin: I voted for her yesterday because of my suspicion, and today she is also making strange statements and not really going anywhere with her posts.

Yet someone else has come into my spotlight. Nonnacedak. Two out of his three posts seem to have been aimed at saying he's innocent. To quote:

post #37
Us innocents must filter through the lies to save our poor village!

post #135
Let me just say I helped lynch a wolf (which was rather exciting I must admit) and I believe I was 6th or so in the voted for Mith therefore proving my innocence as not being a wolf. I must read over the post's more in depth to point some fingers and help my case.

He did vote 6th for Mith, an unpivotal spot in the voting, especially when many others had already voiced their probable votes for Mith. It wouldn't be a bad spot for a wolf to step in and vote. And the fact that he is making such a big about that 'proving his innocence' makes me even more suspicious of him.

So, my suspect list(since everyone seems to love lists so much ;) ) goes as follows:

1. Nonnacedak
2. Durelin
3. Gil-Galad
4. CaptainOfDespair

[Gurthang]

After just reading Gil-galad's and Boromir's posts, (I cross-posted with both) I am now a little more suspicious of both Gil and CaptainOfDespair. Gil-galad seems to be trying to push the noose over to Captain(which could be the right way to go). The quotes by Captain that Boromir provided also make him seem suspicious.

Those two have moved up some, but I'd like to hear what people think of Nonnacedak.

[Gil-Galad]

woah my dear fellow Gurthang, i said that to quote Homestarrunner...mainly for humour purposes...and it was yo uyourself that said my humour goes unappreciated

[SamwiseGamgee]

I must say, Boromir88, I like your reasonig towards CoD, quite simply because I was in Durelin's little list, but didn't feel the need to lash out like the cap'n. After all, did that dirty blood-drinker Mithalwen not give herself away by protesting rather too much?

If I have to do a suspicion list (I know I don't have to- I just want to! :D ) I would go for:
1/ CaptainOfDespair
2/ Gil-Galad
3/ Nonnacedak
Those three are in no particular order, though- they're simply the three people I most likely see myself voting for before nightfall.

[CaptainofDespair]

Oh what have we here...

I'm thrilled I was able to return, as my shrews needed little tending today.

Well, shall we believe the old Captain when he says he might be a gifted? But which one, or am I lying? What choices we are presented with....

Can we believe what anyone says at this point? No. If I am the Beorning (as I am not a wolf by any of your reckonings), how can you tell? You really can't. So, how can you trust Saucepan's ideas on how to tell the Beorning apart from others? How do you know he isn't the Beorning? You don't. It is unwise to trust him until he is proven innocent. Striking haplessly in the dark is not a prudent course, either. You have suspicions, but can you risk killing me, should I be one of the all important gifted villagers? You might need me to die for you, not become your pin cushion of spite. So, do you rely on personality quirks (these are my natural tendencies, mind you), or do you rely on actual findings? Alcarillo was killed by the bear, but why? Did I vote for Alcarillo? Did I mention him prior to his death in, significant fashion? No.

So, go ahead and be witch-hunters, and burn me at the stake. But you all, like the Inquistion, will find nothing but the dead corpses of the innocent.

[Gurthang]

Gil-Galad: Point seen. (Although it was rather Out Of Context.) But just to make sure I understand, which statement are you talking about? The 'challenge' one, or something else?

If CaptainOfDespair is not the cobbler, than he is playing the role to a 'T'. He's really confusing me by hinting he's a gifted yet seeming to care little if we lynch him. I can't for the life of me understand why a normal, or even a gifted, villager would do that.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm, some interesting developments while I have been away.

I said that I would explain why I believe that CaptainofDespair may (note the emphasis on may) be the Black Beorning. And so that is what I shall do.

I do not believe him to be a Wolf. He started the ball rolling with a vote against Mithalwen after quite strong suspicions had been voiced against her. It was clear at that stage that others would probably follow suit. I do not believe that a Wolf would vote for another Wolf in those circumstances. Far too risky.

But this is the behaviour of a Black Beorning - to pick up on suggestions of guilt (in others than himself) and encourage them. Interestingly, earlier on Day 1 (post #36), he had picked up on the suspicions then being voiced against Gurthang and also made a random accusation against Durelin (perhaps to add her name into the mix). Next time he posted (post #49) was to vote against Mithalwen after Gurthang, Firefoot, SamwiseGamgee and wilwarin538 had all commented on her suspicious behaviour. Not the actions of a Wolf - but the Bear doesn’t mind who is lynched as long as it’s not him and his name is kept off people’s list of suspects. If Mithalwen turned out to be a Wolf (as she did), his first vote for her would stand to his credit. If not, that would be an innocent Villager down and he could distance himself from the outcome by pointing out the earlier suspicions voiced by others. He was quiet for the rest of the day.

As I said earlier, the Bear is likely to be throwing accusations about while trying not to look too conspicuous. He doesn’t mind who he accuses because he doesn’t care who gets lynched as long as it’s not him. CaptainofDespair started off today (at post #83) by voicing mild suspicion of no less than six Villagers - LMP, wilwa, Gurthang, Menel, Lalaith and Gil-Galad. Two of those (Gurthang and Menel) have not behaved remotely suspiciously in my view.

But what I find really interesting is the following:

What's scary is that the bear could be anywhere. The bear could be CaptainofDespair, or SamwiseGamgee, or Meneltmarcil, or Boromir88...it could be anyone.

Me? A Bear? *gasps* What nonsense! I can assure you, on the honor of my shrews, that I am no such thing.Durelin’s accusation was not a serious one. She was simply making the (valid) point that the Bear could be anyone. So why did CaptainofDespair feel the need to jump in and refute the suggestion quite so defiantly? (I see that Boromir88 has picked up on this too.)

I also said earlier that the Bear is likely to encourage any suggestion that another Villager might be the Bear. Which is exactly what CaptainofDespair did (#110) in response to arcticstorm’s suggestion that Laitaine might be the Bear. And although I still harbour suspicions that Laitaine may be a Wolf, she is no Bear. It is very unlikely that the Bear (who needs to stay alive more than any other Villager since otherwise he/she has lost) would risk killing the person he/she voted for the Day before. And only Laitaine voted for Alcarillo on Day 1.

So this was the state of the evidence when I made my suggestion that CaptainofDespair might be the Bear. I really was in a hurry, and so could not elaborate. But I was also interested to see what his reaction would be without such elaboration.

And what does CaptainofDespair do? He reacts quite strongly by calling the Village’s bluff, adding a vague implication that he might be a Gifted Villager:

Go ahead. Lynch me.

You'll be sorry when my death is shown as a vain enterprise. Then, you'll have another night where two will die.Then, just after SamwiseGamgee has voiced a mild suspicion of me, he picks this up and runs with it by voting for me (#139). What’s more, he accuses me of being the Black Beorning on the basis that I have been zealously seeking Wolves while providing “little in the way of tracking down the Beorning”. Well, excuse me, but (as Boromir88 has pointed out) I believe that I am one of the few Villagers who has made any effort to consider how we might identify the Black Beorning. In my view, his vote was simply a reaction to my having voiced suspicions against him, as his stated reasons for doing so do not stand up to scrutiny.

CaptainofDespair’s reaction to my suggestion that he may be the Bear has therefore simply served to strengthen my belief in his ursine nature.

And yet I hesitate to condemn him. He is the only Villager who has given me any basis for suspecting as the Bear. But I may very well be wrong. If we want to lynch the Bear, he seems the prime candidate. But the evidence is circumstantial and he may yet turn out to be innocent. I accuse him in good faith, but I am most reluctant to see the blood of an innocent on my hands. And that is why (for the time being) I only say that he may be the Bear.

More later, once I have had time to muse over the other matters discussed while I was away.

(I realise that this repeats some of the reasoning recently expressed by other Villagers, but I composed it before reading their posts. It is encouraging to see that others are thinking along the same lines.)

[Firefoot]

Alcarillo was killed by the bear, but why? Did I vote for Alcarillo? Did I mention him prior to his death in, significant fashion? No. Actually, I would be less suspicious of you if you had been suspicious of him or voted for him. At this point in the game, I don't see why someone would accuse a person in the Day and then kill them at night - it only points the finger in the were-person's direction. This is also why I find it unlikely that Laitaine is the were-bear.

I think that CoD's vote for SpM is odd, and I think that there are people who are much more suspicious than SpM. CoD votes for SpM, who he thinks may be the Black Beorning, then he comes back and says that it's basically a shot in the dark to go after the BB. Hmm... contradiction? I think it is entirely more likely for CoD to be the bear than SpM.

[Meneltarmacil]

Thou speakest well, good Saucepan Man. CaptainofDespair, thou art verily on my Suspecte Liste, tied for firste place with Gil-Galad. I shall not vote until later, though. I suggeste lynching either Captain or Gil toDaye, then having ye Seere dreame about ye other toNighte.

And if it is Captain we lynche, why not burne him at ye stake like he suggested?

And for ye recorde, here is Ye Olde Liste:

1. CaptainofDespair and Gil-Galad are tied
2. Lalaith
3. Durelin

If I had to put roles to each, I woulde say that Captain is ye Beare, Gil and Lalaith are ye Wolves, and Durelin is ye Cobbler. But, ye evidence regarding ye laste two is not as convincing thoughe.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Actually, I would be less suspicious of you if you had been suspicious of him or voted for him. At this point in the game, I don't see why someone would accuse a person in the Day and then kill them at night - it only points the finger in the were-person's direction. This is also why I find it unlikely that Laitaine is the were-bear.

And it's why I'm very suspicious of CoD. Excellent point, Firefoot.

[Boromir88]

Some intriguing arguments have been made I see...

Meneltarmacil: If I had to put roles to each, I woulde say that Captain is ye Beare, Gil and Lalaith are ye Wolves, andDurelin is ye Cobbler. But, ye evidence regarding ye laste two is not as convincing thoughe.
Surely a noble proposition good sir knight, however I do find it unlikely that you've pinpointed all three roles down. There's bound to be a bad guy hiding within the "appeared" good guy crowd, it's just I say a likely chance.

I must say I am stuck in the same hole as Saucepan, I find today even more difficult then yesterday. Yesterday, I'd say I was about 20% sure Mithalwen was someone we wanted to get (which was the highest). Today I fear it's even less.

Captain surely looks the most suspicious to me, but it truly is a tough, tough choice. Our likelihood of not killing another villager today is very, very slim. Nevertheless, but we must do what we must do. Yesterday, was a tough choice and it turned out for the better, today will even be tougher to make. Like I said when I first awoke on the new day, working together, figuring things out will get us through this as it did on day 1.

[Nonnacedak]

Well it seems that some suspision has moved my way. Ill just say that atm I dont have a ton of time to speak and yes I get very behind hearing all the chatter about he said this, he said that therefore taking the little time I have.

Like I said before I was the 6th to vote for Mith therefore If I was the wolf that would be a rather risky spot to throw in a vote to a fellow wolf. With that said think what you will.

There is no way for me to prove by words that Im not the Bear as it could be almost anyone.

I still dont really think I have a whole lot to go off for suspects right now but I would say that there have been some really good arguments against Gil-Galad but I am going to wait and see what other experts (as I am definatly not one) have to say before I cast any kind of blame.

Oh and to clear up something very important. I be a male :p

[The Saucepan Man]

Some further thoughts on recent discussions:

So I will say this, as a last word before my return later tonight, to those who have voiced suspicions against me: that if I am a wolf I am a very stupid one. At the time I voted, Mithalwen the wolf had six votes against her and Gurthang had three. Any fellow wolf with half a brain-cell would do one of two things. He would either decide Mith was doomed anyway and vote for her himself to divert suspicion, or he would try to save her, or at least make a tie, by voting for Gurthang, the only other possible villager who was at risk of lynching. He would not, as I did, vote for someone completely different who had little or no chance of being lynched.On the contrary, voting for Gurthang would have put you clearly in the spotlight. I cite as evidence the suspicion that Gil-Galad (who did just that) has attracted today. There were still six votes to be cast when you voted. It was still possible that someone other than Gurthang or Mithalwen would be lynched. Your vote was for Meneltarmacil, who had already attracted one vote. The more I think about it, the more I think that this was exactly what a Wolf would do in your situation. Certainly, I do not think that a Wolf would have voted for Mithalwen when there was still a realistic chance that she might escape the noose.

I don't know, man. I'm nowhere near voting for you, though, and I'm telling you because I really hope you can help clear yourself.I trust (and hope) that my words speak for my innocence.

And now back to the Captain:

Striking haplessly in the dark is not a prudent course, either. You have suspicions, but can you risk killing me, should I be one of the all important gifted villagers? You might need me to die for you, not become your pin cushion of spite.Problem is, Captain, if you are spared the noose and are indeed innocent, your own words have most probably condemned you to a grisly death tonight. You are most unlikely to be a Wolf, we are all agreed on that. But if you are not the Bear, you have all but declared yourself as a Gifted Villager and (even if you are not) you have thereby made yourself a target for the Bear to-Night.

I will not be voting tonight. I shall wait until tomorrow and probably vote late. Currently, I am inclined to vote for one of the following:

CaptainofDespair (for reasons which should be obvious)
Durelin (for her strange behaviour earlier today)
Lalaith (for the reasons noted at the beginning of this post) or
Gil-Galad (for the reasons stated earlier today)

My main concern over voting for either Durelin or Gil-Galad is that their behaviour just seems too obviously suspicious. And I remain far from convinced of anyone's guilt.

[Boromir88]

Well time is ticking for me. I may be on later tonight but it's not going to be a probability. I'm not going to cast my vote yet because I can't bring myself to voting on just one person, and who that person is going to be. I think it might take the night to figure this one out, in which case you'll see my vote (like Firefoot's probably) much later (around 7 am my time).

This however again is not a probability in that I will get up in time to vote. So right now the chance of me voting is I'd say 60% and probably likely to decrease. Just letting people aware of this if you don't see a vote from me.

[Durelin]

I'm wary of this bear talk, as I do think that the bear would be more cautious than CaptainofDespair has been. I think his posting more reflects that of the Cobbler. But, he could easily be a bumbling bear.

I see that, of course, you are still suspicious of me.

Durelin: I voted for her yesterday because of my suspicion, and today she is also making strange statements and not really going anywhere with her posts.
I will say plainly that this is because I have no idea where to go! There has been so much confusion, and I am more inclined to take in information and process it in my own way. That may sound like a load of crap, but it's true. And you know what...I think pretty much everyone talks a lot, but doesn't say any more than I have. We all make accusations over little things, and glossing over the fact that we really don't know who anyone is, we vote to kill someone.

But anyway... I'm very afraid to say at all that I agree with Saucepan Man, as I think his jump at CaptainofDespair has kindled a bit more excitement than it should have, most likely to his benefit, even though he continues to say that he is only saying that the Captain may be the bear. I just don't think the bear would be so bold as the Captain has been. This kind of boldness comes only from one who is sure of their innocence, and most likely is confused as to who is who, and who to trust.

What I find interesting about Saucepan Man, is that he fits his own description of the bear extraordinarily well. As far as I can tell, he has only attacked, and not really defended anyone's innocence. This could mean that he doesn't care who lives or dies. Also, he is avidly pinning the role of the bear on CaptainofDespair, and, as he said, the bear is wont to do so. Also, you have "thrown out a fair few accusations, while trying not to act overtly suspicious yourself," just as you said the bear should act.

It's possible that your detailed description of what the bear should be doing is what in fact you are doing as the bear. It's possible. And since right now you are a better bear than the Captain, I'm more inclined to think that you are the guilty one.

I feel horrible voting in such haste, but I will not be able to return until next morning's light. Thus, I will make my hasty vote, and, at the risk of being seen as a co-conspirator of CaptainofDespair (though, if he's the bear, then he has no friends), and at the risk of getting myself lynched, I will vote this:

++The Saucepan Man

[Meneltarmacil]

I believe I have waited long enough. My vote goeth to:

++CaptainofDespair

as ye persone who is believed moste likely to be ye Beare. Hopefully, only one shall die toNighte insteade of two.

[Durelin]

I am going to shamelessly (almost) double post because I cross-posted with a few people.

Problem is, Captain, if you are spared the noose and are indeed innocent, your own words have most probably condemned you to a grisly death tonight. You are most unlikely to be a Wolf, we are all agreed on that. But if you are not the Bear, you have all but declared yourself as a Gifted Villager and (even if you are not) you have thereby made yourself a target for the Bear to-Night. This is interesting... Don't you mean the Wolves tonight? I mean, really. It's in the best interest of the Bear to kill the Wolves, not a gifted. The gifted villagers are completely defenseless against the bear...only the wolves can kill him. I may be viciously jumping on this, but I find it interesting that you said the bear, when I would expect the wolves to bother with killing a gifted villager. Though I suppose the bear might be afraid of him being the seer, the wolves have to worry about all of the gifted villagers.

Now, it is time for me to depart. I do hope I return not as a spirit.

[arcticstorm]

As of right now, after reading through all the evidence presented to day so far,
my suspect list follows:
Bear: Captain of Despair

cobbler: Gil Galad
Gurthang

Wolves: Gil Galad
Durelin
Nonnacedak

[Encaitare]

I'm replying as I read the thread, so forgive me if the same points have been addressed by others.

One thing that bothers me is Mith suspicions about Lmp being the Seer. She said it twice that she's quite sure about it yet the remaining wolves didn't kill him during the night. Is Lmp one of the wolves?

LMP could be one of the wolves, since Mith tried to label him as the seer and therefore make us want to keep him alive. Looking back at Mith's posts, it's evident that she was playing pretty boldly, posting a lot but getting very indignant if she was accused. This might have been a trick she hoped would clear a fellow wolf (note might).

Let me just say I helped lynch a wolf (which was rather exciting I must admit) and I believe I was 6th or so in the voted for Mith therefore proving my innocence as not being a wolf.

Having helped lynch a werewolf is not necessarily proof of innocence, as SamwiseGamgee said. It's true that you did opt to vote for the wolf instead of Gurthang, who had the next highest number of votes, but even so -- voting for a wolf does not always mean innocence, and repeating how one has helped lynch a wolf is even worse (cite Eomer in WW7, if such references are permitted).

I looked over SpM's nice little chart of voting stats, and I think it's interesting how the wolves apparently did not try to divert suspicion onto Gurthang after it seemed that Mith was the primary target. If the wolves voted late, perhaps it was too late for them to do so, but it could have been possible when Mith had 6 votes (which was a plateau for some time) and many villagers had not yet voted. Nonnacedak brought Mith's vote count up to six; while she had six votes, these people voted for others:

11. Mormegil for Meneltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1)
12. Laitaine for Alcarillo (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1)
13. Gurthang for Durelin (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
14. Lalaith for Meneltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)

If any in this group had been wolves, it would have made more sense to vote for Gurthang rather than those they chose instead, who had only one or two votes. Although the wolves could have decided to give up since Mith was likely to be lyched, it was still early enough to tip the scales.

I therefore am suspicious of Gil, because when Gurthang had 2 votes and Mith had 3, he voted for Gurthang to tie it, possibly hoping that others would bandwagon on Gurthang.

Encaitare: Points at Gurthang for merely being in character. littlemanpoet, I just want to point out to you that you voted for me yesterday for about that same reason.

Yes, LMP, I was agreeing with what you said -- remember that you were the one who brought it up. I thought Gurthang's words seemed a little suspicious at first, paired with the fact that he spoke up right away (seemed a little eager to me), but I am no longer suspicious of him.

Alcarillo was killed by the bear, but why? Did I vote for Alcarillo? Did I mention him prior to his death in, significant fashion? No.

The Beorning kind of acts randomly, doesn't s/he? It doesn't matter much to him/her who dies -- that's the role. If anything, I'd think the Beorning would try to avoid killing those s/he had mentioned, to separate him/herself from the victim as much as possible.

I'll vote around midnight, I think. I'll be looking at the stars, I suppose. Sometimes they make me feel less lonely...

[SamwiseGamgee]

Let's stop a minute here, guys. The only person who has provided lengthy and meaningful insight thus far is SpM. I'll tell you this for certain: I am not a wolf and I am not acting as one in defending SpM, a fellow wolf, as you may think. I am really uncomfortable with the idea of killing SpM tonight, especially after some of the behaviour we've witnessed today. I can't tell you guys how to vote- but pause and look back over the posts: do you honestly think SpM is guilty? Is Durelin, though, perhaps beginning a campaign against SpM because he senses the time is right to have us kill one he knows is not one of hiss fellow wolf-cloven? I wonder.

[The Saucepan Man]

What I find interesting about Saucepan Man, is that he fits his own description of the bear extraordinarily well.A fair observation. But, if I was the Bear, do you really think that I would outline what I believe to be the Bear's likely pattern of behaviour and then go and act in precisely that way myself? That would be a bold bluff indeed.

This is interesting... Don't you mean the Wolves tonight? I mean, really. It's in the best interest of the Bear to kill the Wolves, not a gifted.No, I meant the Bear. If CaptainofDespair is not a Bear, only the Bear will know that. If he is innocent but escapes the noose today, the Wolves may still suspect him to be the Bear. And I believe that it is in the best interests of the Wolves to keep the Bear alive for as long as possible since they win if only they and the Bear survive and they profit from the two kills per night. The Bear however (and this assumes the Captain is not a Bear) may well conclude from what he has said that he is a Gifted Villager and therefore target him tonight.

The gifted villagers are completely defenseless against the bear...My understanding is that only the Ranger is powerless against the Bear. If the Seer dreams of him/her, then he/she will be revealed. And if the Hunter is attacked by him/her, the Hunter's chosen victim will die.

Funnily enough, Durelin, your vote for me as the Bear lessens my suspicions of you. For the reasons stated above, a Wolf is unlikely to vote for someone they believe to be the Bear. Unless, of course, you are the Bear ...

[Nonnacedak]

Ok because of some lovely suspicion pointed my way and the fact that I dont have much more time tonight I am going to throw a vote out there.

I think the fact that Gil-Galad did start to sway the votes back for Gurthang when Mith was starting to get ganged up up shows us a lot...

I also want to get a vote out there early (since voting 6th has made some people think Im the wolf ~sigh~) to someone who I think really is a wolf. I do realize that voting early makes me a possible bear but really the only defense I have is to say is Im simply not the bear! (yes I know its pathetic)

++Gil-Galad

Good luck to us all!

[The Saucepan Man]

I believe that Gil-Galad is the most likely candidate for the Cobbler. Yes, he has acted suspiciously. But, in the face of some pretty heavy accusation, he has done little to defend himself. I agree that aggresively defending oneself is suspicious behaviour but, if Gil was a Wolf, I would expect a little more from him than he has shown to date.

Interestingly, if my running observations are correct, everybody has voiced suspicion of Gil-Galad except LMP, Durelin and Lalaith. And while LMP has made acusations against both of them, I believe that neither Durelin nor Lalaith has voiced any serious suspicion of the other.

Right now, my thinking is along the following lines:

Black Beorning: CaptainofDespair

Wolves: Lalaith and Durelin

Cobbler: Gil-Galad

But, as I said, I'll vote tomorrow.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Well, I'm going to vote. I begin work in just a little over 3 hours ( :( ) and won't be able to vote before nightfall.

++ CaptainofDespair

I'm as sure as I can be that he's the bear. Furthermore, he's the person I'm most suspicious of at the moment, and so I'll vote for him. Judge me as you will.

[Boromir88]

Well, well, I'm back. I have figured out in my best interests to hope for me to get up and vote, but im interested in seeing more.

We have an interesting decision on our hands...Tough one for myself. So here's out it been so far.

1. Captain of Despair: for Saucepan Man (Saucepan: 1)
2. Meneltarmacil: for Captain of Despair (Saucepan: 1, CoD: 1)
3. Durelin: for Saucepan Man (Saucepan: 2, CoD: 1)
4. Nonnacedak: for Gil-Galad (Saucepan: 2, CoD: 1, G-G: 1)
5. Samwise: for Captain of Despair (Saucepan: 2, CoD: 2, G-G: 1

With this new voting situation unfolding, hmm Durelin has slipped in to be a likely vote.

Edit: crossposting with Samwise, filled in the additional vote.

[Boromir88]

Well, I'm posting again because I have come to a decision. I was going to wait til morning but I fear I won't get up and can't put this off.

The thought of having the blood of an innocent on my hands is disturbing, but the idea of letting go the possible black beorning is even more...

++Captain of Despair

[Firefoot]

Well, I'm getting too tired to think clearly and so will be turning in for the night. At this point, I honestly do not know who I will be voting for, though my (not so short) list is: Durelin, Gil, Lalaith, CaptainofDespair, Nonnacedak, in no particular order. Laitaine is still on my watch list but I doubt I will be voting for her.

I think that this vote could be telling - we shall see.

[arcticstorm]

After weighing all the evidence presented so far today, I must post my vote for

++Captain of Despair

[Laitaine]

If CaptainOfDespair is not the cobbler, than he is playing the role to a 'T'. He's really confusing me by hinting he's a gifted yet seeming to care little if we lynch him. I can't for the life of me understand why a normal, or even a gifted, villager would do that.

Point well put, my dear Gurthang, I had not thought of this.
I’d forgotten that the Cobbler would go far to steal death’s kiss.
Which brings us to the question: whose life is he trying to save?
Perhaps he realized that a wolf’s in danger of his grave.
Perhaps we should look at his posts with very careful eyes
Something clearly triggered this quick race to his demise.

I just don't think the bear would be so bold as the Captain has been. This kind of boldness comes only from one who is sure of their innocence, and most likely is confused as to who is who, and who to trust.

That may be the case, my friend, but that seems to bold a ruse
A man talks like this also when he has nothing to lose.

*sighs at the thought*


What I find interesting about Saucepan Man, is that he fits his own description of the bear extraordinarily well. As far as I can tell, he has only attacked, and not really defended anyone's innocence. This could mean that he doesn't care who lives or dies. Also, he is avidly pinning the role of the bear on CaptainofDespair, and, as he said, the bear is wont to do so. Also, you have "thrown out a fair few accusations, while trying not to act overtly suspicious yourself," just as you said the bear should act.

Another clever point, my friend, of which I am aware
It seems to me that CoD is Cobbler, not the bear.
When Captain took up quickly his most suicidal stance,
I would have thought it obvious the motive for his rants.
Saucie could have seen this as a chance to pin his blame
And aimed it at the earliest suspicious-looking name.

A fair observation. But, if I was the Bear, do you really think that I would outline what I believe to be the Bear's likely pattern of behaviour and then go and act in precisely that way myself? That would be a bold bluff indeed.

*purses lips*

However, Durelin, our Saucie counters very well.
If your claims were true, then it’s far too simple to tell.
I think a Bear (or wolf!) would hide his plans with much more skill
For now, I think that we should keep Saucepan Man with us still.

*yet another sigh*

I think perhaps, dear Durelin, you aren't in the clear.
YOU were the one who stomped the bar or ripped of both Morm's ears!
Whether you are bear or wolf, I do not care to know.
Your aim to take out Saucepan Man makes you the likely foe.
So far, Samwise Gamgee said, he's given much insight
A wolf or bear would want him killed, whether it's day or night.

*sniffles*

'Tis sad there's such suspicion among our once-friendly town,
Yet 'tis the only way we'll live while these wolves are around.
Out of all the people here, Durelin acts with most guilt
Villagers, I’ll wake next morn to see whose breath we’ve stilt.

++DURELIN

[wilwarin538]

Since I don't beleive Saucepan Man to be guilty and I'm not convinced enough to vote for CoD I will vote for:

++Gil-Galad

Since he's one of the only ones I am actually suspicious of.

[Encaitare]

I have already stated my reasoning in my last post, so here's the vote.

++GIL-GALAD

[Gurthang]

Originally posted by Me
So, my suspect list(since everyone seems to love lists so much ) goes as follows:

1. Nonnacedak
2. Durelin
3. Gil-Galad
4. CaptainOfDespair


Since I made that list, Nonnacedak has somewhat satisfied me; enough so that I will not be voting for him TODAY. Durelin has explained herself close to satisfaction, except for one point, so I do not think I will vote for her again, TODAY at least. Her vote for Saucepan is somewhat frustrating me, because I do not consider him to be suspicious at all. It really doesn't make sense that he woudl talk about the Bear so much and be talking about himself. I think he is innocent.

So it comes down to Gil-Galad and CaptainOfDespair. Gil voted for me yesterday at a crucial time, and many have said they consider it a wolfish trick. On the other hand, Captain has been acting rather cobblerish to me. I'm still going to wait, which means I will be voting very late (within a half an hour of the end of the DAY), but I think it will be for one of those two.

Votes received so far(no order):

Saucepan Man - II
CaptainOfDespair - IIII
Gil-Galad - III
Durelin - I

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

You might need me to die for you Wolves might need a Cobbler to die for them...

As far as I can tell, he [SpM] has only attacked, and not really defended anyone's innocence. I think it's suspicious behaviour to defend your fellow villager. The wolves and bear might want to bind themselves to an innocent or the wolves might defend each other. No ordinary villager can have certain information who's guilty and who's innocent.

You have been quite talkative while I was taking a nap. Now that I have read through what you have said I think that the suspicion towards Gil, CoD, Lalaith & Durelin seems reasonable. I think either Gil or Cod is the Cobbler but I don't know what to think of Lalath and Durelin. I won't vote for them today, at least not before they say something that puts the last nail in their coffin.

[littlemanpoet]

I've read as far as post 120. Am having a hard time keeping up with this, which I implied in my response to the need for a replacement player.

Gil-Galad seems immature to me, and that's about it. Not particularly suspicious.

Durelin has majorly ratched herself up as suspicious.

Lalaith also seems somewhat suspicious. She kept asking about the Seer/Bear question.

Nonnacedak seems suspicious to me over her "surrounded by liars" comment, but that could be in character.

Boromir's post # 113 seemed like a great diversionary tactic.

WilWarin in post 118 gave some pretty incisive reasoning regading Lalaith & Laitaine. I think she's innocent.

Running out of time here, so:

++ Durelin

I have no idea, by the way, of who has voted for whom. Just thought you should all know that.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

++ CAPTAINOFDESPAIR

For reasons, see Saucy's post #152.
I'm now quite wary of Durelin, too, but I need to be sure if there's something wrong with our Captain.

[The Saucepan Man]

I see that there have been sugestions that CaptainofDespair may be the Cobbler. But I am not sure that I follow the reasoning in this regard.

As far as I can see, the only Cobbler-like behaviour that he has displayed resulted from my suggestion that he may be the Black Beorning. That was at a time when no votes had been cast and various names had been thrown around as possible Wolves. It seems to me that there was far too little uncertainty at that stage to provoke a Cobbler into acting suspiciously in the hope of offering him/her-self up in place of a Wolf. I don't think that CaptainofDespair is the Cobbler. I do, however, still think that he is the most likely candidate for Black Beorning.

I would also add that our priority should be to lynch either a Wolf or the Bear. The Cobbler is a thorn in our side and an asset to the Wolves, yes, and I would rather see him or her lynched in place of an innocent Villager. But better still to lynch one of the lyncanthropes.

For me, the issue comes down to whether we gun for the Bear or one of the remaining Wolves. There is far more chance of bagging a Wolf than a Bear, particularly as (based on the Day 1 voting) there are a number of Villagers who are most unlikely to be Wolves. But it would be great to bring down the Bear and thereby reduce our exposure at Night.

If we are going for the Bear, then I believe that CaptainofDespair should face the gallows today. He is the only Villager who, in my view, has displayed any firm evidence of Bearish behaviour.

As for the Wolves, my prime suspects are Durelin and Lalaith. But I have not discounted the possibility of Encaitare, wilwarin538 or Laitaine being Wolves either.

The following, in my opinion, are most unlikely to be Wolves:

CaptainofDespair
Meneltarmacil
SamwiseGamgee
Boromir88
Nonnacedak
Gurthang

Gil-Galad I believe to be either the Cobbler or a confused but innocent Villager. His behaviour just seems too risky to me for a Wolf, particularly with one of their number down already.

Which leaves Firefoot, arcticstorm, LMP and dancing spawn. They all seem to be acting innocently to me. But, then again, that does make me rather uneasy about them ...

[Firefoot]

There are five people left to vote: SpM, Lalaith, Gurthang, Gil, and myself. With the score at Gil - 3; CoD - 5; SpM - 2; Durelin - 2; the vote could still go to any of these. I do not feel suspicious of SpM at this point, and I keep going back and forth on Gil. That leaves CoD and Durelin. I'm hesitant to vote for CoD since he would have to be the bear for the lynching to be sucessful, and I'm not convinced that I think that. Durelin could be either a wolf or the bear (I don't think she's the bear, though), and the choices for wolvish candidates are much fewer than those for bear. I want to lynch the bear, but the most important thing is to lynch a were-something. The bear will probably be easier to catch after another night or two.

Slightly random aside - I just started thinking again about why a bear would kill Alcarillo. Alcarillo only ever really indicated two other people besides Mithalwen to be suspicious - Gurthang and LMP (who he thinks is suspicious just for the early vote). His posts #48 and #60 are of note. Post #48 he decides Gurthang is pretty suspicious, then in #60 he changes his mind. Perhaps Gurthang is the were-bear? I'm not particularly convinced, but it's food for thought.

Anyway, back to Durelin vs. CoD. While CoD has certainly shown qualities that could be those of a bear, there are too many suspects for bear for us to have any certainty of catching him/her, I think. It would be different if we didn't have any suspects for wolves, but we do, and I think Durelin is likely enough to be one. Hence, my vote is

++DURELIN

[Gurthang]

Well, after having thought about it, and with time winding down, I will vote for:

++Gil-Galad

Captain is acting like a cobbler in my opinion, and as Saucepan mentioned a couple posts up, we need to bag a wolf or bear before the cobbler. Gil has been acting the most wolfish, in my opinion, especially yesterday when he voted for me to tie up the voting.


Votes received so far(updated):

Saucepan Man - II
CaptainOfDespair - IIIII
Gil-Galad - IIII
Durelin - III

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, having reviewed the proceedings to date, I have revised my prime Werewolf suspects. Lalaith I still believe to be a Wolf. Her vote on Day 1 looks very suspicious to me, for the reasons stated at #158. But Durelin has been acting too suspiciously for a Wolf, in my opinion. I doubt that a Wolf would have voted for me thinking that I was the Bear. And she made some random accusations earlier today, which I see as un-Wolfish behaviour. So she has moved down my list of suspects, to be replaced by Laitaine.

Laitaine voted for a known innocent on Day 1, and put in a mild defence of Mithalwen when she did so. Alcarillo was killed by the Bear over-Night. Perhaps the Bear had identified her as a possible Wolf and was trying to frame her as the Bear. That would fit in with CaptainofDespair’s encouragement of arcticstorm’s theory that she might be the Bear (assuming that CaptainofDespair is the Bear). Also, as has been pointed out, Lalaith defended Laitaine when I identified her as a possible suspect for being one of the “quiet” ones.

So, my revised list:

Cobbler: Gil-Galad or Durelin

Wolves: Lalaith and Laitaine

Black Beorning: CaptainofDespair

And now comes the time to vote.

++CAPTAINOFDESPAIR

My vote may well condemn him to the gallows. But, if he is innocent, I would be complicit in his death even if I hadn’t voted for him, since I was the one who first raised the possibility of him being the Bear. And, for the reasons stated earlier, if he is innocent, he’s most probably a gonner to-Night anyway.

On another note, unless CaptainofDespair is innocent, it is quite possible that I will not survive this NIGHT. If that be the case, all I can say is bring it on! :p :D

[Lalaith]

Ho hum. There was an Unexpected Party in RL at Soothsayer Mansions last night, with unscheduled guests descending, so I have only now time to read through all the thread and respond in a race against time at the last minute, no doubt making me even more suspicious. Sigh. And I don't have as much time to explain myself as I'd like.
I will vote for
++Captain of Despair
to avoid risk of double lynching which I think would be disasterous for us. But I am somewhat suspicious of Durelin and I am still not at all happy about Gurthang's strange failure to save himself yesterday. I suspect him of being the Cobbler. Boromir's posts seem to have some desire to confuse, about them.
Firefoot, along with the first four to vote for Mith, is not a wolf, whatever else she is.
Saucie would make a dangerous foe indeed, I do hope he is not an enemy, but he has I think tried to be helpful, and his reasoning in post #85 was very sound. I think he and Samwise might be Shirriffs.

[Oddwen]

Voting is closed. Expect death shortly.

[Oddwen]

And so decided the Villagers - that CaptainofDespair was Bearish. Enough to lynch, anyway.

"Go ahead. Lynch me. Make my day," said the Shrew Farmer. "You'll see."

He offered no struggles on the way to the faraway lynching tree, he just walked in stony silence.

They tied the rope to his neck and stood back. Pulling the stepstool from underneath him, he hung for only a moment before the change.

Where once a crooked tree had stood, with a rope attatched, there was a crooked tree on the ground, with a rope trailing in the snow.

"He is such an evil being, that the tree itself could not bear him!" cried the Villagers. "It's the hidden bulk of a bear! It's a good omen!"

But they couldn't very well hang him on a felled tree, could they? So they searched for other methods.

They tried feeding him to his own shrews, but they fawned at his feet and attempted to eat the other Villagers.

They tried to impale him on a sliver of wood from the wrecked bar, but it snapped beneath his weight and barely punctured his skin.

They tried to set fire to the bar, but surprisingly, the wood would not catch.

They tried to drown him in the horsetrough, but it sprang a leak and crumbled from disuse, leaving a wide swath of ice around it.

"Wow," they said. "He must be really evil if nothing in the natural realm will touch him! I guess it's up to us, then."

So they stood him in the Village Square, which has been noted not to be square but hexagonal, and plunged a knife into his breast.

The only change that came about was that he was no longer standing.

The Villagers wondered at that. Could they have been...wrong? Chasing after an innocent with murderous intent? Then one of them caught a glimpse of metal underneath his cloak, and uncovered a sword and shield.

Now how could that fit underneath his cloak? No wonder he had looked so bulky and seemed so suspicious!

They wondered why they had not noticed the fastening on his cloak, a many-rayed silver star.

Uh-oh...one feared to say it...Standard-issue Ranger gear.

A trip to CoD's house clinched it. Hidden in various places were more swords and shields, some worn with use.

They'd killed the Ranger, and insured that there would be two kills a night after all.

----------------------

Arcticstorm
Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Encaitare
Firefoot
Gil-Galad
Gurthang
Laitaine
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man
Wilwa

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Chicken (Poultry) - Crushed by a bear on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2


It is now NIGHT 3. Sherriffs kindly stop conversing, Wolves kindly may start.
I need names from the Wolves, Seer, Hunter, and Bear.

[Oddwen]

The Lady Wormtongue wandered to her favorite moping spot outside the village, where the cliff faced out over the valley, and sat to watch the sun rise. She sighed, and remembered her Grima whining about the "Nassty yellow face", and a tear dropped from her eye.

"Stupid wizard," she sniffed to herself.

A figure materialized out of the woods. "No-one should walk alone, especially in these troubled times," it said.

"I'm always alone," replied Enca.

"I know what it is you seek. Rest assured, it is very near."

"All I want is to see my Grima again, but that is impossible. Three nameless Hobbit archers took care of that."

"I know."

The figure suddenly grea larger. "You shall see your Grima soon," it said, and its voice had grown with its figure.

The Bear roared, and charged. Enca stood bravely at the edge of the cliff, and met the onslaught. It was of course, no contest, and the Beorning swept her off the cliff.

"Griiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiimmaaaaaaaaa!" The cry echoed through the valley, and even years later, when a visitor chanced to shout a "Hello!" over the cliff, it would come back as "Grrrriiiimmmaaaalllo!"

-------------


Meanwhile, in the Village, two stealthy forms crept into a house, and gathered by the bedside of the occupant. They reached out clawed hands and...turned the lights on.

Firefoot sat up with a snap. "Whu? I wa'nt asleep! There was a fly in my eye and I was trapping it!"

Then she focused, and it left her speechless. There in front of her were two intruders dressed in bright clothes, odd wiggs and large red noses.

"What..." she began, but the two interrupted her.

"Hello!" they cried. "We're here to entertain you!"

"I don't want to be entertained," she said, but it was more of a question than a fact. "I have to be well-rested and alert for tomorrow, as I have important conversations to engage in."

The intruders merely started to dance and caper about, performing strange gymnastic feats. Firefoot watched hypnotically, as if to ascertain wether or not she was dreaming.

The intruders stopped their dance, and stood grinning at her.

"You liked that? Wait 'til you see our encore!" Then they struck. Firefoot put up a great struggle, but in the end she was overcome. They left her crumpled body in the middle of the room, with her Sherriff's badge atop it. Then the Wolves snuck away muttering.

"Why did I have to wear the pink? I look so silly!"

"Shut up and help me get this fake nose off..."

The Villagers were dismayed the next morning when they found the signs by the cliff, and the body of Firefoot. When they removed her body, only one stayed behind in her cabin to check in their secret hiding place for a letter.

Living:
Arcticstorm
Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Gil-Galad
Gurthang
Laitaine
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man
Wilwa

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3


It is now DAY 3. Wolves stop PMing, Sherriff...uh, nevermind.

[Meneltarmacil]

Captain was ye Ranger? That's not goode. I'm sorry I voted for him. Him and Firefoot...two Gifteds deade already. Deare me...

I wonder why ye Beare killed Enca? She was ye quieteste person in ye village. It wouldn't make a lot of sense to try and silence someone who's barely spoken.

I remaine suspiciouse of Gil-Galad and Lalaith, and possibly Durelin.

[SamwiseGamgee]

In fact, Meneltarmacil, I would say that killing Enca would actually be the best course of action for the bear: kill a quiet villagers for no reason and avoid leaving a trail that leads to you. Remember, the wolves are working as a team- the bear isn't. In fact, it serves the bear to actually just kill randomly and avoid raising suspicions about him/herself. Thtat's why it's so hard to actually identify the bear.

As for the wolves, I haven't yet had a chance to go through the thread and form my suspicions on who would want to kill Firefoot, and I'm leaving for work soon. I won't be back until Midnight (GMT+1), so don't view my early post and sustained silence afterward as suspicious, please.

[Lalaith]

I can see why suspicion is being directed towards those of us who did not vote for Mith on the first day. But bear in mind that none of the villagers (except the 2 other wolves and very, very possibly the Seer) actually knew that Mith was a wolf.
If she had turned out to be innocent, suspicions would now be directed in a very different way. For my part, I didn't join in because I don't like bandwaggoning. But I can see why other people are keen on it, its a good way to avoid being singled out for suspicion.

As for Gil, I can also understand why he is under suspicion. I'm not too happy about him myself, but on the other hand, perhaps he is just being Gil.
I'm still feeling wary about Boromir and Gurthang. Boromir's assertions that innocence should not defend itself seemed instrumental in the lynching of our Ranger. And Gurthang because of his funny voting on the first day.
On a personal level I am of course worried about Mene and Saucie as they suspect me, but I am trying not to let personal feelings get in the way. However I do sense the hints of some kind of complicity between Mene and Boromir.

[Lalaith]

Oh and apologies for failing to notice Oddwen's reply yesterday about my Seer question.

[Laitaine]

O Horribly Depressing Day, we’ve lost more of our town
This time they were thrown off a cliff or entertained by clowns!
These werewolves have sick humor, that is one thing for sure
They are so perverse that I cannot take much more.

Clearly, yesterday we made a very grave mistake
Captain was the greatest loss that we ourselves could make
Well--no, we have the Seer still--but will (s)he too last long?
Or will I have to write for him/her a dismal funeral song?

Friends, we must be careful--we killed our main protection
Wolves would much more cunningly hide from our best detection
Even our sly Cobbler has been keeping a lowdown.
Clearly, we must scour every corner of our town.

Who did Encai talk about? Who did FF blame?
What motive would these beasts have to take out each dame?
But careful, these fiends won’t be who these two women accused!
A wolf (or bear!) would kill to frame another as a ruse.
Encai talked of several names: LMP, Non, and Gil
Firefoot had shown that lynching Durelin was her will.
Now we must look at these names, and how they have connection
With Encai’s rather hasty fall and Firefoot’s dissection.

*taps recorder in lap, frustrated*

Of course, these beasts could double-bluff--so think with thorough care.
I will not be here most of the day, but vote early? I don‘t dare.
I will come back here later tonight to see what has been said.
And now my friends, I play a song to honor our new dead.

*honks a D minor arpeggio most despairingly*

[arcticstorm]

After hearing of today's deaths I have reviewed everything said by the four killed at night. I will start by listing what was said, suspicion-wise, by the wolf victims, and then will move to the bear victims.

Morm's first list of suspicions points to Firefoot, Mithalwen, and myself. The next time he voices suspicion, he changes it to Samwise, CoD and Mith. Later he voices suspicion of anyone who voted for Mith, in case she was innocent, with special interest on Menel and Alcarillo. He then votes for Meneltarmacil. He was probably killed for his role in bringing out Mith.

Firefoot: On Day one she was only really suspicious of Mithalwen and voted for him.
On the second day, she originally posted a little suspicion or confusion toward Gil, Durelin, Nonnac. Laitaine, and Wilwa.
Later she became mionorly suspicios of CoD. With her list being Durelin, Gil, Lalaith, CoD, and Nonnacedak.
And later points out that Gurthang may be the bear.
She votes for Durelin as wolf, because there are too many people who could be the bear.

On to the Bear victims.
Alcarillo: voiced minor suspicion of Gurthang but more toward LMP. Later he put Mith on the top of the list and voted for him. NOt much to go on there yet, but I will examine it further with Enca's suspicions later. He ended up by voting for a Mithalwen.

Enca: On Day 1 she voiced suspicion of Gurthang early on, and didn't say much else for the rest of the day
On day 2: Post suspicion of LMP being a wolf. She becomes suspicious of Gil and votes for Gil. She may have beeen killed for her contributions shortly after the day was half over, but let us look at that closer.

Alcarillo's next suspect was LMP, he got himself killed.
Enca also voices some suspicion of LMP and gets herself killed by the bear. This may be a coincidence or it may be someone trying to frame LMP. Or maybe LMP is the bear. Yes Enca voiced suspicion of him being a wolf, but if people vote to kill him of wolvery, he still dies wether he is a wolf or a bear.

Right now my wolf suspicion list is Durelin first followed by Gil
and LMP heads up my bear suspicion list.

[Lalaith]

At this stage I also think both wolves and bear are killing those who are not under strong suspicion from the village. The reasoning being that they wouldn't bother killing off people that the villagers might lynch for them anyway.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I am truly sorry for my role in CaptainofDespair's death. If only he had not reacted quite so indignantly to my suggestion that he might be the Bear and then all but revealed his secret role, he would probably be with us still.

I thought that he was bluffing when he (more or less) claimed to be Gifted. But I am pretty sure that at least one, and quite possibly two, of those who voted for him believed his claim and concluded that he might well be the Ranger. Unfortunately, they were correct.

I agree with SamwiseGamgee that poor Encaitare was a good choice of kill for the Black Beorning. Although, having said that, just about anybody would be a reasonable choice except, perhaps, someone who had accused him or her yester-Day.

I am very sorry to lose Firefoot. Her insights have always been helpful and her loss is all the more grievous in light of her Shirriff status. I have a pretty good idea who the other Shirriff may be, but it is for him or her to decide whether to reveal that. If they do, they will face almost certain death tonight, but may be able to help us today.

My suspicions concerning the Wolves are, at the moment, pretty much as they were at the end of the Day yesterday. Lalaith and Laitaine are my main suspects, although I am less suspicious of Durelin in this regard. her early vote for me yesterday, on the grounds that she believed me to be the Bear, just does not seem to me to be Wolfish behaviour. And Gil-Galad is almost certainly the Cobbler or a misguided innocent. He did not even turn up to vote yester-Day when his neck was on the line throughout much of the Day.

I am, however, retaining an open mind, and I really have no idea now who the Bear might be. Time to look back on the proceedings to date in light of last Night's gruesome and tragi-comedic happenings.

[Gil-Galad]

i would have to agree with Lailaith there, the Wolves/bear are hitting people off that aren't big on suspicon.... oh yeah, Hear ye Hear Ye, Firefoot and Enca have both been deceased, were running out of graves, more news at 11!

Edit: also yesterday, i totally forgot to vote when i got back home, i'll try to remember today(think to, i usually have to vote early...)

[Lalaith]

*sigh* at Saucepanman's continuing suspicion of me. I would suspect you right back, my friend, were it not for the fact that I think your late vote for CoD yesterday seemed to be reasoned from the same motive as my own vote, to avoid a double lynching, and that this is something only a person with the village's interests at heart would do.

As for the other Shirriff, my instinct at this stage, is that they should keep quiet unless they are in serious danger of being lynched. And that anyone who has suspicions about his/her identity should also keep quiet.

[Durelin]

I knew there was something innocent about our poor Shrew Farmer! And his shrews were so tasty...the poor little buggers... Alas Firefoot, I am so sorry for my initial vote for this innocent soul. And poor Enca, who did nothing to harm anyone.

I'm afraid I will be gone till later this day. Please do not take my absence as suspicious. I'm sure you probably have many other suspicions of me, but I hope you will take a moment to reconsider, before we lynch another innocent. Our Ranger is gone, we are vulnerable to the wolves and the bear. I hope the Seer has some insight, whoever they are. And I hope our Hunter will have good judgement, whenever the wolves come upon him.

Since I have had more time to look at others' posts, Gil-Galad is giving me much suspicion, since he is very wolfish- probably the Cobbler, as you say. He has yet to have anything to say. Some people accuse me of the same thing, but I think that to be unfair.

My trust for The Saucepan Man has been lessened even more, but I do not think it is grounds for lynching...yet. His taking of the lead is either just him being very helpful as an innocent (and perhaps even gifted), or he knows something we all do not due to his guilt.

I see Laitaine and Lalaith are under suspicion. When I return later, I will read through everyone's posts more carefully.

I would love to hear more from LMP, as he seems to be escaping any consideration. His absence is most likely understandable, but I'd still like to hear what he has to say.

Sorry, I must depart now. Please do not lynch me while I am gone, and insure yet another night of two kills and two wolves.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here’s my handy list of Day 2 voting:

1. CaptainofDespair for SpM (SpM – 1)
2. Durelin for SpM (SpM – 2)
3. Meneltarmacil for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair – 1)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 1; Gil-Galad – 1)
5. SamwiseGamgee for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 2; Gil-Galad – 1)
6. Boromir88 for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 3; Gil-Galad – 1)
7. arcticstorm for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad – 1)
8. Laitaine for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 1; Durelin – 1)
9. Wilwarin538 for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 2; Durelin – 1)
10. Encaitare for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 1)
11. LMP for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
12. Dancing spawn for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
13. Firefoot for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 3)
14. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
15. SpM for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 6; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
16. Lalaith for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 7; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)

Gil-Galad did not vote.

I still believe that none of those who voted second to sixth for Mithalwen on Day 1 are Wolves. To have voted for a fellow Wolf on Day 1, at a time when she was attracting all the votes but could yet be saved, would be an incredible bluff. A good way of looking innocent thereafter, perhaps. But surely too risky.

And, as I have said above, I believe that at least one Wolf, and possibly two voted for CaptainofDespair yesterday, concluding that he was (as indeed he was) the Ranger.

The only Villagers who were not in the first six to vote for Mithalwen and who voted for CaptainofDespair are:

Arcticstorm
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
The Saucepan Man
Lalaith

Arctistorm’s accusations of Mithalwen earlier on Day 1 make him less suspicious in my eyes. And I know that I am innocent.

Which leaves Lalaith and dancing spawn. Lalaith I already suspect. But I really have no idea about dancing spawn. She seems innocent, but it might prove dangerous to assume her innocence simply on that basis.

I am less convinced that a Wolf would have voted for Gil-Galad, since he is such a prime candidate for Cobbler (even if he is not one). The Wolves don’t know who the Cobbler is, but will want him or her to stay alive for as long as one of their own number is not at risk.

Difficult to say who the Bear would have voted for as, let's face it, the Bear can vote for just about anyone without looking too suspicious.

I must admit that, on reflection, the Night's events make me even less suspicious of Durelin, of Werewovery at least. Firefoot's killing points to her, since she made strong accusations against Firefoot yester-Day and Firefoot voted for her. That looks mightily like a frame up to me (although it could be a bold double-bluff, I suppose).

I'm still feeling wary about Boromir and Gurthang. Boromir's assertions that innocence should not defend itself seemed instrumental in the lynching of our Ranger. And Gurthang because of his funny voting on the first day.Surely, though, you cannot suspect them of being Wolves. Boromir88's vote for Mithalwen was pretty decisive, and Mithalwen's vote for Gurthang speaks in his favour. Either of them could be the Bear, of course. Indeed, it would not surprise me at all if the Bear was hiding in that gaggle of Villagers who voted early for Mithalwen.

LMP heads up my bear suspicion listArcticstorm, the analysis that leads you to that conclusion is an attractive one. And my thoughts have been leading in that direction too. My only concern is that his very early vote on Day 1 might be regarded as overly risky behaviour for a Bear. Nevertheless, I feel that LMP has a role to play in all of this.

As for the other Shirriff, my instinct at this stage, is that they should keep quiet unless they are in serious danger of being lynched. And that anyone who has suspicions about his/her identity should also keep quiet.I tend to agree. Unless there is some way to organise a mass lynching ...

[Lalaith]

Can I point out, with regard to the Saucie's list, that if you check the times of the posts yesterday, you will see that his and my vote were more or less simultaneous.
At the time I posted, the voting stood at CofD 5, Gil 4. A vote for Gil, as far as I knew, would have resulted in a double lynching. It was not until after I made my post, I saw that SpM had also voted for CofD.

[wilwarin538]

I am very sorry to lose Firefoot. Her insights have always been helpful and her loss is all the more grievous in light of her Shirriff status. I have a pretty good idea who the other Shirriff may be, but it is for him or her to decide whether to reveal that. If they do, they will face almost certain death tonight, but may be able to help us today.

I don't understand this. Why would the other shirriff be in any danger? Isn't it the Seer and the Hunter that the wolves and bear are after right now? The shirriff isn't really a threat to them.

[Lalaith]

Wilwarin, a known innocent is very useful to the other innocents of the village, strategically. You can look at WWIV to see why.

[wilwarin538]

Wilwarin, a known innocent is very useful to the other innocents of the village, strategically. You can look at WWIV to see why.

I know this. Its the way Saucie said that if the other shirriff reveals themself they would definetly be the one to go tonight. Why is that? Why would the wolves or bear be threatened by the shirriff?

[Meneltarmacil]

I believe it likely that ye Beare was among those who voted for ye Captain yesterDaye. Ye Beare was probably one of ye people who caste a lot of suspicione on him too, as it would drawe it awaye from him/herselfe. I muste be off soone, but after I returne in a fewe hours, I shall reviewe postes by those such as Boromir88...

[The Saucepan Man]

His taking of the lead is either just him being very helpful as an innocent (and perhaps even gifted), or he knows something we all do not due to his guilt.Actually, I think that your comment yester-Day is probably nearer the mark:

SaucepanMan says too much, and really has no idea what he's doing :rolleyes: ;)

Its the way Saucie said that if the other shirriff reveals themself they would definetly be the one to go tonight. Why is that? Why would the wolves or bear be threatened by the shirriff?For the reasons that Lalaith stated. A known innocent, if declared at the right time, can certainly be very dangerous for them. I said "almost certain" because they would of course rather go for the Seer if they thought that they had identified him or her. And it might be dangerous for them to go for the Hunter if they felt that he or she was on to them.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm speechless. Well, that might not be an entirely bad thing but really, I cannot make a proper case against anyone right now. Well, I could blame Durelin for a couple of reasons. She voted for Firefoot and now she's dead. She also tried to draw attention from Gurthang, Mithalwen & lmp but on the other hand, that's what I did on Day1, too.

As Saucy pointed out, Lalaith's suspicions towards Boromir & Gurthang are odd. She also kept asking if the Seer can reveal the Bear and her post #124 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=406271&postcount=124) was somewhat weird. But I think she's rather the bear than a wolf.

Mithwolfwen said very early on the first day that "trying to guess the degree of bluff is just mindspinning. It may be an error to dig too deeply and ignore the obvious. Personally if push came to shove, I would vote in better conscience for someone who had acted suspiciously than someone who hadn't - in the absence of something more definite." Is this supposed to be a clue or was she just talking to make her post look longer?

Why do wolves want to kill somebody? 1) to frame someone up, 2) they think they've found the Seer, 3) they're bluffing

So, Morm and Firefoot were killed by wolves but even though I'm considering all the options above, I can't pinpoint any culprits. I'll post more later if I can sort out my thought.

[Gurthang]

Alas, more blood has been spilt. I shall miss Firefoot especially, as I greatly admired her work and often conversed with her about the animals she drew. Encaitare, the poor girl, I have always felt sad for her. As strange as her Lover was, it was a bitter loss to her none the less.

And CaptainOfDespair was our Ranger. That is a bitter loss to all of us. I that Saucepan Man is right when he says that one or two of those we hunt were likely in the voting for Captain. She hinted very early that she was a gifted, and some may have voted for that reason.

I am still suspicious of Durelin. She explained herself a little yesterday, but now I see her quick vote(yesterday) for Saucepan Man. That vote smells like an attempted start at a bandwagon.

Gil-Galad, I'm still suspicious of, too. Some of you have mentioned that it's just him being himself, and I am somewhat inclined to beleive it, yet his voting on the first day still seems to point him out as a wolf, and he confuses me, which makes me wonder if he's the cobbler.

I would love to hear more from Nonnacedak. He posts very little, and seems to be worried about people thinking he's guilty when no one has suspected him. He's still just slightly suspicious to me.

[Lalaith]

She also kept asking if the Seer can reveal the Bear
Do you really think that if I was the Bear I would have drawn attention to myself like that, surely I would have just quietly asked the Moderator by PM?

I asked about the Seer and the Bear openly because Saucie asked for a discussion, with all of us coming up with ideas on how to catch the bear and I didn't know if the Seer could be useful to us in this, or not.
I asked twice because as I said above, I didn't spot Oddwen's reply.

[Lalaith]

She hinted very early that she was a gifted, and some may have voted for that reason.

You know, that's a very good point. Obviously the wolves knew CoD wasn't one of them, so they would be the only ones who knew for sure that he wasn't bluffing.

[littlemanpoet]

I have been busy at my baking ovens, preparing some special treats for those of you who remain alive, to observe a memorial to CaptainofDespair and those who have been grievously slain during the night.

For those who voted to lynch CaptainofDespair I've prepared custard pie with extra whipped cream. Here you go!

::LMP throws custard pies (egg) in the faces of Arcticstorm, Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant, Saucepan Man, Boromir, SamwiseGamgee, and Meneltarmacil::

And for each of you who voted more wisely, I present you each with your own Dainish Pastry, straight from the Iron Hills! Enjoy! Oh! There's an extra pair for our two dear departeds. Oh well, I guess I'll have to eat them myself.

::eats them himself::

Now to it.

SPM's werebear motivations and strategies set is but one of a number of possible choices for the werebear. Durelin, though I still suspect her, did wisely say that the werebear wouldn't be as brash as CoD. SPM's werebear strategy is only the most obvious choice, and therefore one that the werebear might be tempted to set aside because of its obviousness. What troubles me most about SPM's werebear strategy is that it applies every bit as well to your typical innocent villager. Note: in the following text I have substituted "an innocent villager" for "a Black Beorning"

But this is the behaviour of an innocent villager - to pick up on suggestions of guilt (in others than himself) and encourage them.
And an innocent villager would do this on the grounds that it would make sense to him/her.
Interestingly, earlier on Day 1 (post #36), he had picked up on the suspicions then being voiced against Gurthang and also made a random accusation against Durelin (perhaps to add her name into the mix). Next time he posted (post #49) was to vote against Mithalwen after Gurthang, Firefoot, SamwiseGamgee & wilwarin538 had all commented on her suspicious behaviour. Not the actions of a Wolf - but the Innocent Villager doesn’t mind who is lynched as long as it’s not him and his name is kept off people’s list of suspects.
This last sentence just stood out to me so strongly as lawyerly persuasion at its most dangerous. I am NOT saying that SPM is suspicious, I'm saying that he let his theorizing take flight without checking all the angles. Very dangerous and tempting behavior for someone who is overeager to catch a bad guy. And quite understandable.
If Mithalwen turned out to be a Wolf (as she did), his first vote for her would stand to his credit. If not, that would be an[other] innocent Villager down and he could distance himself from the outcome by pointing out the earlier suspicions voiced by others. He was quiet for the rest of the day.

Upshot: I think it's wrongheaded to try to go after the Black Beorning, especially when there are some obviously suspicious people hanging around. Even if there weren't, it's still unwise to go blindly after the Black Beorning with shots in the dark that are more likely to take down an innocent villager than going after werewolves is. We're used to going after werewolves, and have proven ourselves not too shabby at it. Yes, I know that 2 villagers per night will continue to get killed, but the sooner we take out 2 more werewolves and/or the cobbler, the less likely the villagers will lose this battle. The odds are against us! Do not dilly dally with half-baked schemes and persuasions! We've lost our Ranger, who NEVER seemed guilty in the least to me, at any point.

And there's another thing. The introduction of the Cobbler into our scenario has rendered the noble suicide for the sake of the village, suspect. In other villages, when someone did this, it was obvious to the rest of the villagers that they were voting for the wrong person. Now it could be the cobbler, but probably isn't, precisely because the cobbler is probably going to be more subtle than that. Even so, saying "make my day" actually is now counterproductive whereas it used to reveal innocence, because the speaker "just might" be the cobbler.

Gurthang, earlier you reminded me that Boromir and Encaitare were only doing what I had already done, accusing someone for being in character. The difference is that I was the first, and they bandwaggoned on my idea. If it had been the other way around, I'd be the suspicious one.

I am now less suspicious of Durelin because her voice of reason in post #160 echoes my sentiments exactly, and her reasons for wild posting have (to me at least) the ring of truth (and maybe I'm a fool, but you gotta go with something, eh?).

I too did notice that SPM fits his description of the werebear quite well. And it's just as interesting that he was the one to get into the mind of a werebear first. Now, that may be good citizenship at its best, but then again it may be something more furry. Not that I believe that, but NOBODY BUT NOBODY should escape scrutiny, and that includes yours truly, of course.

Lalaith strikes me as either the werebear or a certain type that I choose not to specify...

If I were the Seer, I should like to dream about Arcticstorm, whose posts have been bland and safe, his votes safer, flying so far under the radar that he seems mighty suspicious to me upon reading through my notes. He's been too invisible, letting the loudmouths point the finger at others, covering over his quietness. Very furry behavior, seems to me.

Which brings me to another point about innocence versus guilt and how to tell the difference under these circumstances. Fortified with the knowledge of their own innocence, these types tend to view attacks against themselves as suspicious; thus people like CoD basically hit back, because they became suspicious of SPM for attacking them. Same goes for Durelin, whom, since her post #160, I now believe to be innocent. You see, people who are not cobblers or werecreatures tend to post the first thing they think of because they don't feel that they have to cover their butts. Werecreatures and cobblers are saddled with a constant job of doublethink, and that's the kind of thing that shows, and it's what we need to look for.

Boromir is also looking furry to me, because of his safe voting, his tendency to divert attention away from certain things towards where he wants it (post 113 for example).

So I think we should give serious consideration to lynching one and dreaming the other of Arcticstorm & Boromir.

Likely Innocents, on the strength of their contributions to finding furry beasts:
Dancing Spawn
Gurthang (first to attack Mith)
SPM
Oh, and me.

Probably innocent on the strength of their sometimes contributions and rather guileless posting:
Durelin
Gil-Galad
Meneltarmacil
Wilwarin
Laitaine (it's way too hard to write verse that scans and rhymes, AND be a wereanything. I should know!)

Somewhat suspicious:
Nonnacedak (posts 37, 135, 157, 167)
Samwisegamgee (posts 44 - conveniently late vote for Mith-, 137 - SPM too clever-; in his defense, I agree with him that we should have stopped the craziness in voting for SPM - post 165.

Very suspicious:
Arcticstorm
Boromir

There. Phew!

[The Saucepan Man]

I can see why suspicion is being directed towards those of us who did not vote for Mith on the first day. But bear in mind that none of the villagers (except the 2 other wolves and very, very possibly the Seer) actually knew that Mith was a wolf.
If she had turned out to be innocent, suspicions would now be directed in a very different way.

The fact is, Lalaith, that Mithalwen was not innocent. And, as you say, the two other Wolves knew that. So, while it is perfectly reasonable for an innocent not to vote for her, it is nevertheless very likely that one Wolf at least, and possibly both, did not either. And, in those circumstances, the logical thing for a Wolf to do would be to vote not for the Villager that Mithalwen had voted for and who had the second highest number of votes (which would look too suspicious) but to vote for someone who had already been voted for and who might yet be lynched in her place. Which is exactly what you did.

I am not (yet) saying that we should lynch Lalaith, because she does seem to me to be genuine in what she says. But her record does not speak well of her.

However I do sense the hints of some kind of complicity between Mene and Boromir.

I believe it likely that ye Beare was among those who voted for ye Captain yesterDaye. Ye Beare was probably one of ye people who caste a lot of suspicione on him too, as it would drawe it awaye from him/herselfe. I muste be off soone, but after I returne in a fewe hours, I shall reviewe postes by those such as Boromir88...

That’s interesting. Was Menel reacting to Lalaith’s suggestion of a link between himslef and Boromir88? I am not quite sure what to make of that.

Has anyone yet got any kind of a handle on dancing spawn? She seems to be coming up with lots of points, but little in the way of conclusions. I would like to think her innocent, but she troubles me at the moment.

[Lalaith]

But her record does not speak well of her
On the first day, no-one really knows what they are doing. I didn't think either Mith or Gurthang guilty (as both were acting too suspiciously!) so I went for what I thought was a feasible alternative.
On the second day, I did exactly what you did, SpM. So what was the problem there? (well, other than the fact that poor old CofD was the Ranger, of course... :( )

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Do you really think that if I was the Bear I would have drawn attention to myself like that, surely I would have just quietly asked the Moderator by PM? Yes, dear, that's why I said it.

While reading all posts from the beginning I thought that there was something wrong with Boromir but it seemed more wolvish than bearish and therefore I have mostly abandoned my suspicions. I mean, if he was a wolf his vote for Mith would have been quite shameless.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well well, LMP, your long post provides much food for thought.

SPM's werebear motivations and strategies set is but one of a number of possible choices for the werebear.Well pardon me for trying to catch a Bear! My understanding was that it was the expressed preference of many in this Village to track down the Bear as a priority, in order to cut down the number of kills per Night. And, while I recognised the difficulties of spotting Bearish behaviour, I tended to agree that we should not overlook the Werebear in our eagerness to find the Wolves. Also, I seem to recall some suspicion being cast in my direction for being zealous in my hunt for the Wolves but not being quite so energetic with regard to the Bear.

What troubles me most about SPM's werebear strategy is that it applies every bit as well to your typical innocent villager. Note: in the following text I have substituted "an innocent villager" for "a Black Beorning"I agree with you to an extent, but I cannot accept that the following is a fair analysis of an innocent Villager’s motives:

Not the actions of a Wolf - but the Innocent Villager doesn’t mind who is lynched as long as it’s not him and his name is kept off people’s list of suspects.Of course innocent Villagers mind who is lynched. Innocent Villagers should be very careful about bandying names around, in case the wrong people (other innocents and Gifteds) get it in the neck. Of course, the Village is bound to lynch innocents and probably even Gifteds in its search for the lycanthropes. It’s unavoidable and, unfortunately, it happened to us yester-Day. But innocents should and do care who gets lynched. Not so with the Bear. He or she is free to accuse, and vote for, whomsoever he chooses as long as it does not attract too much suspicion.

I should point out that I did not vote for CaptainofDespair purely for his pattern of behaviour, but also for his reaction to my suggestion that he might be the Bear. With the benefit of hindsight, it was understandable. But at the time, it made him look mighty suspicious to me. And I am sure that I was not alone in that.

I am NOT saying that SPM is suspicious … I too did notice that SPM fits his description of the werebear quite well. And it's just as interesting that he was the one to get into the mind of a werebear first. Now, that may be good citizenship at its best, but then again it may be something more furry.You seem to be casting a fair degree of suspicion in my direction for someone who does not think me suspicious … :p

Upshot: I think it's wrongheaded to try to go after the Black Beorning, especially when there are some obviously suspicious people hanging around.I agree that we should be careful about who we lynch as a candidate for Werebeardom. I fully acknowledged yester-Day, when deciding how to vote, that there was a greater chance of catching the Wolves than the Bear. But I, and others too I am sure, found the temptation of bagging the Bear just a little bit too tempting. So, yes, we should try not to be too reckless in our search for the Black Beorning. But we should not neglect him. And I am wary of anyone who suggests that we should concentrate exclusively on the Wolves.

If I were the Seer, I should like to dream about Arcticstorm, whose posts have been bland and safe, his votes safer, flying so far under the radar that he seems mighty suspicious to me upon reading through my notes. He's been too invisible, letting the loudmouths point the finger at others, covering over his quietness. Very furry behavior, seems to me.Funny how you are making a very strong accusation against arcticstorm now, shortly after he identified you as his main Werebear suspect, having (as far as I can see) never accused him previously. You now have the dubious honour of topping of my “Bear-watch” list too.

Boromir is also looking furry to me, because of his safe voting, his tendency to divert attention away from certain things towards where he wants it (post 113 for example).Please could you explain this? I don’t see anything “diversionary” in what he has said.

[Boromir88]

I do not deny my influence in Captain's death. I sadly had a part to play in it, I will admit, putting some strong accusations towards him. However, my vote for him was not in an attempt to start a bandwagon (there were other purposes which I wish not to reveal). If you want to know you'll have to see how I responded to Captain's quick vote and figure it out for youselves.

Boromir is also looking furry to me, because of his safe voting, his tendency to divert attention away from certain things towards where he wants it (post 113 for example).
You're quite right, I do divert, but got it backwards. I don't do it for myself, lmp.

Gurthang, earlier you reminded me that Boromir and Encaitare were only doing what I had already done, accusing someone for being in character. The difference is that I was the first, and they bandwaggoned on my idea. If it had been the other way around, I'd be the suspicious one.
Another thing mistaken lmp. In post #2 Alcarillo voiced some concern for Gurthang. My post after #3 voiced stronger concerns. And continued until Gurthang defended his stance in which case I turned my decision towards Mithalwen (which was a much wiser choice).

I say we try something new. Our plans failed yesterday when it came to Captain, it's time to try something new. As we voice our thoughts on what the "bear" or the "wolves" would do, that gives them ideas on what to do. So to say things like "a bear would obviously not do this, it would be to suspicious"...or the "wolf would not do this...etc" they pick up on these things and do that exact thing knowing it would look TOO suspicious to us therefor they can't be the bear/wolf. It's something that I would like to call as using reverse psychology, we say to do this would be way too suspicious therefor that person can't be the wolf/bear, so they go ahead and do it that way, knowing we won't cast suspicion on them.

For instance, we said Laitane voted for Alcarillo, then next day Alcarillo is killed by the bear. This would be far too suspicious for a bear to kill the person he/she voted for on Day 1, so Laitane can't be the bear. On the contrary she (right?) could be.

Also, on for the wolves I'm doing my first suspect list for the wolves in which case Gil-Galad and lmp are most suspicious to me. Gil-galad for reasons continuing from the last day, and despite me thinking his defense sounds exactly like Gil-galad, being Gil-galad, that's what he wants us to think. So, reversing it, he puts this lackluster defense up knowing we'll think oh, it just sounds like something Gil-galad would say, so they it can't be him.

lmp, for the reasons of Mithalwen's quick identifying him as the seer. To me there is no reason to believe lmp is the seer. Mithalwen did not plan on getting caught so early, so this could have been some wolfish strategy designed at the beginning, to cast off suspicion. Again we have Mithalwen, Gil-Galad, and lmp on day one all voting for Gurthang. 3 wolves sticking together? This would all be too suspicious, so it can't be, it would be too bold. But, "reversing it," the wolves know we'll think this, therefor all 3 wolves stick together and vote the same.

For wolves: Most suspicious-
1. Gil-galad
2. lmp

For bears, most suspicious-
1. Laitane.

Everyone else is also suspicious so here's my breakdown of (more, less, or almost none suspicious)

More Suspicious:
1. Durelin
2. Lalaith
3. Nonnacedak

Less Suspicious:
1. Meneltarmacil
2. Gurthang
3. wilwarin
4. Samwise

Almost no suspicion, to the point where they just seem fully innocent:
1. Saucepan Man
2. Dancing Spawn
3. Arcticstorm

Edit: More to come on why I think this way with the lists I made further on once I look harder through the posts.

[The Saucepan Man]

As we voice our thoughts on what the "bear" or the "wolves" would do, that gives them ideas on what to do.Precisely. It's called herding. ;)

Almost no suspicion, to the point where they just seem fully innocent ... Dancing SpawnI tend to agree. But could anyone tell me exactly why dancing spawn seems innocent to them? She seems innocent to me too, but I can't quite put my finger on why that is. Which makes me uneasy ...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

As we voice our thoughts on what the "bear" or the "wolves" would do, that gives them ideas on what to do. I agree but we should remember that what we say may not be what we really think.For wolves: Most suspicious-
1. Gil-Galad
2.lmp
That would explain why lmp is still alive after the Seer talk. If lmp wasn't a wolf he would have been an easy and untraceable prey for the wolves. I'm more inclined to think Gil as a cobbler, though.

Btw, SpM, I'm aware that you don't know what to think of me but since I guess I'm not eligible to answer your question I just disregard it. :p

[Boromir88]

this post is mainly for lmp...

Boromir is also looking furry to me, because of his safe voting, his tendency to divert attention away from certain things towards where he wants it (post 113 for example).
Frankly, to be honest, I do divert, but Post #113 is not a diversion. That was my post of possibile suspicions coming into the day (as I plan on doing everyday). They are thoughts gathered from the lynching that day, and the people chosen to be killed at night, not to start a diversion.

My only diversion comes when talks of votes coming up. (Which you will have to find where those posts are, I've already given some clues). As you will see these posts come much later when actual voting begins, my intentions you will have to find out for yourself, or maybe it will become clearer in the coming days. Since, I have not gotten into trouble of being lynched, I think it is unfair to say that I steer attention away from myself. To seereally what I try to do is up for your own interpretation.

I tend to agree. But could anyone tell me exactly why dancing spawn seems innocent to them? She seems innocent to me too, but I can't quite put my finger on why that is. Which makes me uneasy ...
I feel much of the same. I say Dancing because she contributes to the cause, and her voting is not all that suspicious.
11. LMP for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
12. Dancing spawn for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
She could have died it up between CoD nad G-G, so that mostly shows to me that she's not the bear. The bear might try to get a double lynching.

Not a wolf because her vote sealed Mithalwen's fate. She could be a cobbler, but it seems highly unlikely if she's trying to find the wolves. Afterall, the cobbler would want to help the wolves.

This is why I think Gil-galad is the wolf, and not the cobbler. The cobbler doesn't have any idea who the wolves are, and with voting close, I doubt on Day 1 the cobbler would tie things up to try to take pressure of Mithalwen. It so happened that Mithalwen was a wolf, and the only person to know Mithalwen is a wolf, is the other wolves, therefor tieing the votes makes him look more wolfish then cobbleresque.

[Lalaith]

I’ve got a bit of time on my hands right now but probably won’t have much time later, except to come on to read and vote tomorrow. So, as many of us have been posting our opinions on our fellow villagers, here’s mine.
Oh one thing before I start: I wanted to follow up the point Gurthang made earlier about the wolves knowing that CoD wasn’t bluffing. I thought this was good reasoning but then I realised the wolves might also have thought, like a lot of people clearly did, that CoD was the werebear and so WAS bluffing. In which case they might, or might not, have voted for him.

So, the survivors, in alphabetical order:
Arcticstorm – voiced early suspicions of Mithalwen, so unlikely to be a wolf. Has not acted in a particularly Cobblerish way. Might conceivably be the Bear but I don’t think so.
littlemanpoet of Willowbottom – Our strangely gendershifting baker is to my mind a possible wolf. Mith's hint about the Seer, and his quick vote for Gurthang. If he thought Gil was the cobbler and CoD the bear, it might explain his vote for Durelin on day 2.
Boromir88 – His insistence that innocents need not and should not defend themselves was wrong and unhelpful, particularly with regard to his persecution of the late Captain. Possible Bear.
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant – SpM’s reasoning in post #200 puts her in the spotlight. (And yes, I know it puts me in the spotlight too) Voted for Mith after her fate was more or less sealed. LMP puts her in the category of those he doesn’t suspect at all because of their role in catching wolves, but this is odd as she never voiced any suspicion of Mith before she voted for her. I think she is a possible wolf.
Durelin – Her actions were initially skittish and random, but today she makes more sense. Mildly suspicious.
Gil-Galad - Like nearly all of us have said. Could be a wolf, could be the cobbler, could just be Gil.
Gurthang. That first day vote does bother me. He’s not a wolf, that’s for sure, and I don’t think he’s a bear, but he might be the cobbler.
Laitaine –Someone I’m just not sure about. Some of you have pounced on my early defence of her infrequent posting but that was just a passing comment, a fairly obvious piece common-sense.
Meneltarmacil – Again, mildly suspicious. I too noticed what SpM pointed out in post #212.
Nonnacedak – Another not sure. Like a lot of you, I’m finding it hard to get a handle on this character.
SamwiseGamgee – Not a wolf. He was “sure as he can be” however that CofD was a Bear, and voted for him early. Only mildly suspicious as cobbler or a bear however.
Saucepan Man – He rabble-rouses with Boromir’s help to lynch CofD. And, like dancing spawn, he voted for Mith suspiciously late. However unlike DS he did voice suspicions of Mith earlier in the day. He cheerfully implicates himself by his own reasoning in post 200. Few wolves would be so audacious but if anyone would be up for such a daring plan, it would be SpM. Yet… his reasoning has mostly been sound (except when it comes to his stubborn suspicions of my good self, ahem) and I somehow think he’s innocent.
Wilwarin538 – Again, someone I am not sure about at all.

Chief wolf suspects: LMP and dancing spawn. Minor wolf suspect: Gil.
Chief Bear suspect: Boromir.
Chief Cobbler suspects: Gil-Galad and Gurthang.

Lalaith reserves the right to change her mind on any or all of the above and is open to all reasonable argument.

[arcticstorm]

Not a wolf because her vote sealed Mithalwen's fate.


On the contrary, Her vote sealed Mith's fate, yes, but Saucepan and Firefoot had already voiced their suspicions of Mith and it was known that they were more than likely going to vote for Mith. With that in mind, it would be the perfect tactic for a wolf to cast the vote to seal the fate of a fellow wolf, when it is known that he will die anyway.

[The Saucepan Man]

Btw, SpM, I'm aware that you don't know what to think of me but since I guess I'm not eligible to answer your question I just disregard it.Well, I have no objection to you telling me why you seem innocent either ... :p

I had been thinking along similar lines to arcticstorm with regard to your vote for Mithalwen.

[Nonnacedak]

I know that it's risky to defend somebody but I've been thinking about things and I believe that Gurthang is innocent. The reason being is what Mormegil had said and done. I'm thinking that the wolves killed him because they thought him to be the seer. He got a lucky guess with Mithalwen and helped to flush her out. I can see how the wolves thought him to be the seer and he tried to cover his tracks by saying 2 others along with that. One innocent (Firefoot) and one unknown (Articstorm) then when he sees the Mith bandwagon going on tries to say "maybe she's innocent" The wolves probably viewed this as the seer saying "I'm not the seer" and to my mind the final factor for the wolves to think Mormegil the seer is when he proclaimed seemingly randomly that Gurthang is innocent. The wolves probably know he is so therefore this strenghtened their false belief that he was the seer.

Now this, to my mind shows that Gurthang is not a wolf, of course he could be the bear but I don't think so. Now I have been troubled in mind about Dancing Spawn. Similar to what SpM said she just isn't sitting right. I think also Mormegil may have pointed to Articstorm and guessed two of three wolves correct.

Ill try to post again soon. Will depend on the durned trout!

[littlemanpoet]

On to the Bear victims.
Alcarillo: voiced minor suspicion of Gurthang but more toward LMP. Later he put Mith on the top of the list and voted for him. NOt much to go on there yet, but I will examine it further with Enca's suspicions later. He ended up by voting for a Mithalwen.

Enca: On Day 1 she voiced suspicion of Gurthang early on, and didn't say much else for the rest of the day
On day 2: Post suspicion of LMP being a wolf. She becomes suspicious of Gil and votes for Gil. She may have beeen killed for her contributions shortly after the day was half over, but let us look at that closer.

Alcarillo's next suspect was LMP, he got himself killed.
Enca also voices some suspicion of LMP and gets herself killed by the bear. This may be a coincidence or it may be someone trying to frame LMP. Or maybe LMP is the bear. Yes Enca voiced suspicion of him being a wolf, but if people vote to kill him of wolvery, he still dies wether he is a wolf or a bear.

Right now my wolf suspicion list is Durelin first followed by Gil
and LMP heads up my bear suspicion list.

I'd like everyone to be aware that I did not read this post until after I submitted my own first of the day. Quite interesting, Arcticstorm, building up a trumped up case like this, looking for all the world like you're doing in depth analysis while only using others' words to build your own case. You are getting all the more suspicious. I won't vote for you just yet, want to read through all the posts first.

[Meneltarmacil]

After reading Boromir88's posts, I only finde a fewe clues that woulde hinte at what he is. He accuseth Gurthang on ye firste Daye due to ye in-character commente, then voteth for Mithalwen after Gil-Galad, putting her in firste place. That woulde hinte that he is at leaste not a Wolfe.

On ye seconde Daye, he pointeth out differente people as suspects, then leapeth on ye bandwagon for CaptainofDespair following Ye Saucepan Man's suspicions. His vote is ye one that putteth Captain in ye majority. He seemeth to not saye a whole lot, but goeth along with ye moste suspiciouse people at ye time. He mighte be ye Beare, but it is harde to telle ye Beare aparte from an Ordinary Villager, at leaste harder than it is to telle a Wolfe aparte. I finde him a little suspiciouse, but all I can saye is that he is probably not a Wolfe. I don'te have many leads to go on righte now.

[littlemanpoet]

Well pardon me for trying to catch a Bear!
You are forgiven. :p

And yes, I admit that a lot of my substitute "innocent villager" proofs were not as good as I had originally thought; the only one was that which I especially concentrated on. Most of that post was composed overnight while I hoped to survive the night, and I didn't have a chance to proof what I had put together in my halfhour lunch at my Bakery.

Of course innocent Villagers mind who is lynched.

Well, yes. I miss CaptainofDespair's presence among us very much.

::Glares back at SPM::

You seem to be casting a fair degree of suspicion in my direction for someone who does not think me suspicious … But my conclusion in that post regarding your likely innocence is clear.

I am wary of anyone who suggests that we should concentrate exclusively on the Wolves. Good point. Yet we have no clear idea how to flush one out with any confidence. That's why I say get the wolves. ... unless you have a really good sense for the werebear.

Funny how you are making a very strong accusation against arcticstorm now, shortly after he identified you as his main Werebear suspect, having (as far as I can see) never accused him previously. You now have the dubious honour of topping of my “Bear-watch” list too.

I welcome your scrutiny. As I said in a recent post, when I put up my first post for toDay, I had not read anybody else's yet, and when I saw his, I did have to smile at the irony of how Bearish my post suddenly looked. And appearances certainly do seem to matter a lot in this village. I hope content matters more. Judge my words versus arcticstorm's.

I don’t see anything “diversionary” in what Boromir has said.

Okay. At the time, apparently, I found his move toward the Bear somewhat suspicious. Now looking back it seems less so. I DO find, however, his list of Mithalwen voters to be quite telling. "One of the wolves is in that list"; obviously, he includes himself and arcticstorm.

What I find most interesting about my duo of suspects is that they both chimed in as suspicious of Mithalwen after others had done so. Then they both voted for Mithalwen after others had done so. On Day Two, the same thing turned out to be true in their votes for CoD

As a matter of fact, SPM, you seem to have a blind spot about Boromir, because he did NOT appear on your post # 200 list of those who had voted for both Mithalwen and CoD. That could be seen as suspicious, but I believe it is merely an error because you have yet to seriously suspect Boromir.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Well, I have no objection to you telling me why you seem innocent either ... I don't know if you are entirely serious with your accusations (I notice that many are happily climbing the bandwagon, though) but I'm going to defend myself a little.Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant – SpM’s reasoning in post #200 puts her in the spotlight. Now, what did he say there... SpM's suspicion of me is based on his belief that one or two wolves voted for CoD yesterday. When he had decided that, he had just to finger at the voting list of day1 so it would support his view. Simple yet not very accurate (sorry).

About my "late" and "death sealing" vote for Mith: much of the discussion happens while I'm asleep. On that morning I logged on - I mean, trod to the Village Hexagon and saw that many votes had already been cast (hence the title: Good grief!).

Lalaith said: "She [Spawn] never voiced any suspicion of Mith before she voted for her." Read closer. In my post #67 I said that I think it was weird from Mith to associate lmp with the Seer when he obviously (to me) isn't one. I also agreed with Firefoot that Mith's self defense was quite over-hysterical. Besides, if a bunch of people are already accusing her why should I? I've already seen her reactions and I can think without writing everything down.

I know, I also said that Alca's suspect list was odd (Mith (wolf), lmp (ooh, are we fellow wolves!?), Gurthang). I just thought that it wasn't wise to ignore all others who hadn't acted so gross. After that I went back and reread everything. Then I decided to vote for Mith for reasons I said in my post #72.

Now that Lalaith has managed to shift some blame on me, she suggests that lmp & I are the wolves. Now, of course I can't suspect anyone because you think that I'm trying to avoid the spotlight by blaming others. Can I make a case against my "co-wolf" lmp, then? :p I'd like to point out that I suspected lmp to be a wolf already in my post #120. Another thing I just noticed is that Mith slightly defended him in her post #21 when she probably thought that I was accusing lmp. Could this mean that he's a wolf, too? I don't know. I rest my case. ;)

edit: some cross posting but never mind

[arcticstorm]

I was hoping not to have to reveal this today, yet with two people seriously considering me to be a wolf, at least one of whom may be able to convince people to join his cause. I must now reveal myself to be the other sherriff.

[littlemanpoet]

I say we try something new. ... It's something that I would like to call as using reverse psychology, we say to do this would be way too suspicious therefor that person can't be the wolf/bear, so they go ahead and do it that way, knowing we won't cast suspicion on them. ... Laitaine .... Gil Galad - LMP/Mithalwen/Gil-Galad as wolves.

What you're talking about is a consistent strategy of double bluff, and a most daring one at that, played by all lycans. That would be binding themselves up to too tight a strategy. They would need more flexibility, don't you think?

So SPM thinks I'm a Bear and Boromir thinks I'm a wolf. Can't say I blame either one, considering we've got werewolves and werebears around. I see no point in defending against the plausibilities Boromir offers. I'll say only this: the werewolves have a statistical advantage as long as the werebear lives. They don't NEED to do anything as daring as what Boromir suggests.

Heh. The trouble with doing so much talking as I'm doing today is that the more I say, the more fodder the suspicious have of my guilt. I can't help that. But PLEASE, people, look at the cases against EVERY VILLAGER. Don't get sucked into a latest fad of who's guilty and who's not. That's what got us lynching CoD. Weigh the evidence of my words, of their words and votes. It's the best we have to go on.


Almost no suspicion, to the point where they just seem fully innocent:
1. Saucepan Man
2. Dancing Spawn
3. Arcticstorm


Funny, perhaps I'm using similar reasoning to accuse Arcticstorm and you that you're using to accuse me.

[littlemanpoet]

This is why I think Gil-galad is the wolf, and not the cobbler. The cobbler doesn't have any idea who the wolves are, and with voting close, I doubt on Day 1 the cobbler would tie things up to try to take pressure of Mithalwen. It so happened that Mithalwen was a wolf, and the only person to know Mithalwen is a wolf, is the other wolves, therefor tieing the votes makes him look more wolfish then cobbleresque.

Okay. This makes sense. It's just that Gil-galad seems frankly too nonchalant to even care about being a werewolf or not. Maybe he's a wolf putting on a narcissistic act, but if he is, I guess he's got me so far convinced. However, I'm satisfied with your defense, Boromir, for reasons I won't state.

[littlemanpoet]

I was hoping not to have to reveal this today, yet with two people seriously considering me to be a wolf, at least one of whom may be able to convince people to join his cause. I must now reveal myself to be the other sherriff.

Okay, thank you. I was beginning to want you to reveal yourself just because the bandwaggoning seems to be gathering against Spawn and me (including Spawn!) :mad: Maybe that's being emotional instead of clearheaded, but I was beginning to desperately want a known innocent around.

And if any werewolf decides to say "No, he's not the shirriff, I am!", then you're welcome to try it. I for one will side with arcticstorm and lynch you. So go ahead and make my day. :p

Well. My Day's initial slate of most suspicious has pretty much been wiped clean. Back to the drawing board.

Oh, and Arcticstorm, please accept my apology for forcing your hand. It was really too early for you to come forward, as there are too many werecreatures still alive. I'm sorry, fellow Ords, to have been instrumental in blowing what little chance we have of beating the odds.

By the way, it still seems really leaping to think that my vote for Gurthang on Day one makes me wolvish. You are quite right to say that such a thing is way too daring for a werewolf, especially in this particular game fraught with werewolves, werebear and cobbler, for them to have to mess around with that. They don't need to, more's the pity.

Back to the bakery for me, and I will vote very late. You won't be reading anything from me until very late. Off to make more custard pies, should the chance be available to throw them on the morrow.....

And if I die before I'm waked
I wonder what werething his bloodthirst has slaked?

[Meneltarmacil]

And if I die before I'm waked
I wonder what werething his bloodthirst has slaked?
Is this a not-so-cryptic hinte that we oughte to looke out for Laitaine? Or is this Knighte reading too muche into thy poste?

[Gurthang]

LMP, despite your vote for me on DAY 1, I am only mildly suspicious of you, and not at all for your vote. What makes me suspicious are your mistakes here:
Originally posted by LMP (post #141)
my mildly suspicious list:

Boromir: Is too aggressive in his attacks against Gurthang over the in-character animal rights thing.

Encaitare: Points at Gurthang for merely being in character.

To which I answered:

Originally posted by Gurthang (post #146)
littlemanpoet, I just want to point out to you that you voted for me yesterday for about that same reason.

Following that you said:

Originally posted by LMP (post #211)
Gurthang, earlier you reminded me that Boromir and Encaitare were only doing what I had already done, accusing someone for being in character. The difference is that I was the first, and they bandwaggoned on my idea. If it had been the other way around, I'd be the suspicious one.

Which is also wrong, as Boromir pointed out:

Originally posted by Boromir (post #216)
Another thing mistaken lmp. In post #2 Alcarillo voiced some concern for Gurthang. My post after #3 voiced stronger concerns. And continued until Gurthang defended his stance in which case I turned my decision towards Mithalwen

These mistakes could be simply that: mistakes. Yet they also look like twisting words; something a wolf would do. I kind of think it was just mistakes, but I am watching you because of the above statements.

Yet I am still more suspicious of Gil-Galad. That first day vote against me seems like an attempt to change the momentum, and was not really explained at all. He has not said anything since I last posted and a lot of his posts before that confused me. I want to hear from him again, especially since I think I will vote for him again toDAY.

And, if Gil-Galad would turn out to be a wolf, then I will be looking closer at LMP, since he, Gil and Mith all voted for me on DAY 1. Boromir's reverse psychology idea makes sense. (but that will be only if Gil-Galad is a wolf)

[Lalaith]

Oh dear. I'm really sorry about arcticstorm outing himself. My philosophical friend, I was pretty sure who you were, and while any defence I could give you would probably have done you more harm than good given the suspicion I've been under, I had a feeling SpM also had worked this out and would have tried to protect you (which is incidentally one of the reasons I was inclined to believe in his, SpM's, innocence).
It's not inconceivable that Lmp had the same suspicion as I did about arcticstorm and set about flushing him out on purpose with his accusations. Ho hum.

[Boromir88]

LMP, yes a double-bluff is bold, I wouldn't try using one, but who knows. To let you know (if it's any comfort) I'm nowhere near thinking about voting for you for any reason, atleast yet. I do have suspicions on you, but I do read what you have to say, as you have things to offer. I also agree that it would be deeply unwise just to look at one suspect. Yesterday, before I voted I had three people in mind, and toiled with the decision of sleeping overnight, and getting up early to vote. My concern was I wouldn't get up in time, therefor I decided to vote right before I went to bed (11 pm), and I had to make the decision then. Sadly, and regrettably, it was the wrong choice. I agree it would be foolish to be set on one person. ;)

Lalaith, I won't deny my involvement in Captain's lynching. To do so would be utterly stupid, as I was one of the vocal voices in his lynching. But, I did say that my idea of "innocence not having to prove their innocence. Only guilty people stoutly deny their innocence because they have something to fear" might not work.

I think using the indian example again, I mean I don't know about you. I may not have lied but I would certainly be afraid of a hot iron being put in my mouth, that could get someone scared, therefor their tongue burns and they were not a liar, just feered the hot iron.

Also, I offer possible solutions, whether people decide to agree with them or not is up to them. So, while I was instrumental in being one to voice my suspicion about Captain of Despair, I would not take full blame, nor accept taking full blame for I was only one of the several to decide to lynch him. Obviously others found sufficient belief in his lynching. As it turned out, we had the wrong person.

[Boromir88]

I'm posting again to step out and speak towards arcticstorm.

Tis a noble thing for you to do, to step out and declare your identity. I would have waited, as I didn't see much to suggest you were guilty (atleast I wouldn't have voted for you), but that does not lessen your honor. You will be missed, good sir.

[Gil-Galad]

you know what i just realized, since that i'm a suspect, the wolves or bear could kill off one of the villagers that are suspecting me to frame me and save their own hide, i great tactic that we kinda helped the wolves set up...

[Meneltarmacil]

Gil-Galad, thou hast been extraordinarily quiete recentely. I woulde have expected thee to vote for Captain, but thou didst not. I cannot comprehend what thou mightst be, though I still believe "Wolfe" is ye best answer. Do something suspiciouse and when people suspect thee, hide and say little...

My minde is somewhat blanke at this pointe. arcticstorm, if thou hast any insighte as a Sherriff, I aske thee to share it.

[Laitaine]

Also, I offer possible solutions, whether people decide to agree with them or not is up to them. So, while I was instrumental in being one to voice my suspicion about Captain of Despair, I would not take full blame, nor accept taking full blame for I was only one of the several to decide to lynch him. Obviously others found sufficient belief in his lynching. As it turned out, we had the wrong person.

Ah, but when I voted Alcarillo, it was said that I was scheming
Clearly, I was wrong, but all suspicion was not leaving.
Make no mistake, I’m on your side, ‘twas a very simple err,
To lynch you for a simple slip? I would never dare.
The ones that find you guilty, I think they are in the wrong
Now, I must go run and errand, so I’ll pause here in my song.

[Laitaine]

Is this a not-so-cryptic hinte that we oughte to looke out for Laitaine? Or is this Knighte reading too muche into thy poste?

I wonder much the same as you--but it may not be.
I notice that the wolves, too, write wicked poetry.

*sob, burying face in hands*

A saddened place the world is where art is simply jeered
My once noble profession is now, by wicked, seared!

[SamwiseGamgee]

I'm becoming more and more sure that Gil is calling our bluff. I suspected him yesterday and having read his posts today, and especially #237, I'm pretty convinced that he's up to something. But what? is it cobbler, bear or audacious werewolf? Who knows. Also, Enca voted for him yesterday. Now, sure, I hear you groan that that's just too predictable and nobody'd be so stupid- but i just can't help wonder if it's one of those dangerous dances on the knife-edge of stupidity and brilliance.

Also, lmp, you said that in post #44 I voted late and safe for Mith. Um, no. I was second to vote for her, convinced by Firefoot's reasoning. The mistakes which several people have pointed out that you made in that post worry me. Are they just honest mistakes or are they subtle perversions which you hoped nobody would pick up on? I just don't know what to think anymore! :rolleyes: :(

[SamwiseGamgee]

Here's a crazy plan I literally just thought of which may just be crazy enough to work: we lynch articstorm. We basically know that the wolves will want to kill him overnight, so it might just work for theses reasons: (1) it'll remove options from the wolves- killing articstorm is a safe kill for them, it sheds no extra light on the situation; (2) if the wolves leave articstorm alive tonight we're all going to be very suspicious tomorrow, and we're all going to start clutching at straws regarding bluffs; and (3) there's a small possibility that articstorm is bluffing. Suspicions of him were not really strong enough to warrant him revealling himself when he did. If he is bluffing, he won't be an innocent and so we'll net ourselves something hairy!

I've not even convinced myself this is a good idea yet- and you'll probably lynch me for even suggesting it, but I'm just throwing it out there for discussion.

[Laitaine]

Here's a crazy plan I literally just thought of which may just be crazy enough to work: we lynch articstorm. We basically know that the wolves will want to kill him overnight, so it might just work for theses reasons: (1) it'll remove options from the wolves- killing articstorm is a safe kill for them, it sheds no extra light on the situation; (2) if the wolves leave articstorm alive tonight we're all going to be very suspicious tomorrow, and we're all going to start clutching at straws regarding bluffs; and (3) there's a small possibility that articstorm is bluffing. Suspicions of him were not really strong enough to warrant him revealling himself when he did. If he is bluffing, he won't be an innocent and so we'll net ourselves something hairy!

I've not even convinced myself this is a good idea yet- and you'll probably lynch me for even suggesting it, but I'm just throwing it out there for discussion.

I don’t think I need to point out that this plan is dicey,
I daresay that Arctic's reaction will be fairly icy.
I’d rather take a chance and try to kill a wolf today--
Wolves want us to kill innocents, and therefore pave their way.

*purses lips* However…

We don’t know what will happen if Arctic lives the day,
We could just wait to see what Arcticstorm will say.
If he likes your plan, well, I still don't think it wise,
But before we even think about it, let's hear it from his eyes.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, yes. I miss CaptainofDespair's presence among us very much.

::Glares back at SPM::Now that's a cheap shot! Just like the one with which you launched your sloppy and undercooked custard pies. :p

You have talked much recently, and yet little you say goes towards assuaging my suspicions of you. And it seems that you were instrumental in our noble Shirriff's decision to reveal himself.

Yet we have no clear idea how to flush one out with any confidence. That's why I say get the wolves. ... unless you have a really good sense for the werebear.Well, you're my only real suspect at the moment. But, as it happens, I agree that there is probably much more to go on as far as the Wolves are concerned. I just don't think we should take our eyes of the Bear-ball while we are looking for Wolves. And it's worth bearing (no pun intended) in mind that the Beorning wants the Wolves dead too.

Judge my words versus arcticstorm'sIndeed we will. :p

(There we are, that's my cheap shot in return. ;) )

As a matter of fact, SPM, you seem to have a blind spot about Boromir, because he did NOT appear on your post # 200 list of those who had voted for both Mithalwen and CoD. That could be seen as suspicious, but I believe it is merely an error because you have yet to seriously suspect Boromir.It was not an error. My list, concerning who might be Wolves, comprised those who voted for Mithalwen when her fate was either sealed or pretty much so and who voted for CaptainofDespair. Boromir88 voted fourth for Mithalwen - putting her one vote ahead of Gurthang. Does anybody really think that one Wolf would vote for another in those circumstances on the first Day? I don't have a blind spot for Boromir88. I just find it extremely unlikely that he's a Wolf. I have not, however, discounted the possibility of him being a Bear.

I don't know if you are entirely serious with your accusations (I notice that many are happily climbing the bandwagon, though) but I'm going to defend myself a little.I'm not accusing you as such. I just want to know why it is that you seem so innocent in my mind. You make some interesting points in your defence, so I'm glad that you took the time to set it out.

SpM's suspicion of me is based on his belief that one or two wolves voted for CoD yesterday. When he had decided that, he had just to finger at the voting list of day1 so it would support his view. Simple yet not very accurate (sorry).I have explained the basis for the list (on which I included myself). No, it's not very accurate, but studying voting patterns is one of the few things that we have to go on at the moment. And it did not support my view as far as you are concerned since I was at that time (and still am) loathe to suspect you.

I was hoping not to have to reveal this today, yet with two people seriously considering me to be a wolf, at least one of whom may be able to convince people to join his cause. I must now reveal myself to be the other sherriff.I am sorry that you were forced into revealing yourself, arcticstorm. But it does restore my faith somewhat in my own judgement (after the CaptainofDespair fiasco) as I had an idea that you were the second Shirriff. I noticed that you and Firefoot mildly defended each other on the first two Days and I have never really harboured any serious suspicion of you. But now that you are revealed, I would greatly like to hear your further thoughts on our predicament.

So SPM thinks I'm a Bear and Boromir thinks I'm a wolf. I am fairly certain that LMP is not a Wolf, whatever he may be.

But PLEASE, people, look at the cases against EVERY VILLAGER. Don't get sucked into a latest fad of who's guilty and who's not.I agree with that. I most certainly do not go along with what anyone says uncritically. But we do have a decision to make today and so I for one welcome everyone setting out their views concerning our foes. In those circumstances, it is natural (and indeed beneficial if we are not to lynch more than one of our number) that a degree of consensus will form.

It's just that Gil-galad seems frankly too nonchalant to even care about being a werewolf or not. Maybe he's a wolf putting on a narcissistic act, but if he is, I guess he's got me so far convinced.I'm with you on that one.

These mistakes could be simply that: mistakes. Yet they also look like twisting words; something a wolf would do. I kind of think it was just mistakes, but I am watching you because of the above statements.Yes, he made a mistake with my list too (see above). By themselves they don't mean much, but it seems to me that a number of things are beginning to stack up as far as LMP is concerned.

It's not inconceivable that Lmp had the same suspicion as I did about arcticstorm and set about flushing him out on purpose with his accusations. Ho hum.There's another. I agree that it most certainly is not beyond the bounds of possibilty.

[Nonnacedak]

SamwiseGamgee your plan is very inventive I must admit but I say we not move on to something about a supposed known to everyone innocent(I say supposed cuz I guess Arctic could possibly be lying but that I highly doubt.).

We should stay on the Wolf hunt for now because we dont need something new for the wolves to hide under and argue about. I am not sure who to vote for at the moment so I would like to keep talking about those suspicious to help my stumped self out. :confused:

[Gurthang]

Samwise Gamgee, I must say that I, at least, will not lynch you for the idea, but I do not like it. Killing a known innocent is not going to help us as a village. Sure, it leaves the werecreatures in doubt, but they will still pick two others to kill tonight. By not lynching arcticstorm, we almost guarantee that we know what our opponets will do(they'll kill him), thus keeping us a step ahead. And we just might get a wolf or the bear if we lynch someone besides arcticstorm.

And think about this: Perhaps the wolves and the bear will both try to kill arcticstorm. Would that result in only him dying? If so, it would be good because we only lose one innocent tonight rather than two. Or perhaps they(wolves and bear) would both think the other will kill arcticstorm, so they both leave him and we have a known innocent alive tomorrow.

Personally, I would feel a lot better about lynching someone who is acting suspicious rather than lynching a known innocent. I'm still leaning towards Gil-Galad. His last post could be a sincere defense attempt, or it could be him trying to bluff himself to safety; I'm not really certain.

[The Saucepan Man]

Here's a crazy plan I literally just thought of which may just be crazy enough to work: we lynch articstorm.Wha- !!?? :eek:

No no and thrice no!

Two things:

1. Arcticstorm is not bluffing. The record backs him up. If he was, then the real Shirriff would step forward and declare themselves. I severely doubt that anyone will.

2. If we lynched arcticstorm, we would almost certainly guarantee the death of two innocents in the place of one. The Wolves would be able to choose another to kill in his place, and it's unlikely that it would be the Bear. It might even be the Seer. If we don't lynch arcticstorm, we have a shot at one of the Wolves or the Bear to-Day.

No, let's not go there. 'Tis a silly plan.

... you'll probably lynch me for even suggesting itOn the contrary, I actually think that it speaks in your favour. I don't believe you to be a Wolf because of your vote for Mithalwen. And your plan not the sort of thing that the Bear would propose as, if we lynch arcticstorm, there is a greater risk that the Wolves will kill him/her to-Night.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hows about this for a crazy plan - let's lynch everybody except arcticstorm ...

[Meneltarmacil]

*continueth to wipe ye custarde pie off face*

I'm not really convinced aboute anyone at this pointe. Gil-Galad is stille ye higheste on Ye Olde Liste (thoughe I'm eyeing Boromir88 with some suspicione now), so I'll probably vote for him in aboute 20 minutes unlesse something better turneth up.

[SamwiseGamgee]

You couldn't do it. It doesn't work mathematically. There's always going to be someone with two votes. That is on the assumption that silence works as a vote for yourself.