Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[Holbytlass]

An island comprised of 15 villagers (and then some)
3 wolves
1 seer
1ranger
1 hunter
1 cursed
8 ordinary

wolves: may P.M. each other to strategize and choose one victim at NIGHT only. During the DAY, wolves transform to villagers and participate in the discussions.

seer: chooses one villager a NIGHT to dream about, that person's secret role will be revealed (Cursed villager will be 'seen' as ordinary villager).

ranger: chooses one villager a NIGHT to protect. If the wolves choose same person that person is saved. Ranger cannot protect self and cannot protect same person 2 NIGHTS in a row.

hunter: chooses one person to kill at time of their own death.

cursed villager: does not know that s/he is cursed (seer will 'see' them as ordinary). If s/he gets lynched, they die as as ordinary villager, if they are attacked by wolves, they become a wolf.

TO WIN:
Villagers win if they eliminate all wolves.
Wolves win if they eliminate villagers till they equal the number of wolves (still alive), then the wolves can openly revolt.

~DAY/NIGHT phases are 24 hours long
~no mass lynchings
~nonretractable votes
~In the event of a first place tie, villager who received the first vote will die.
~no game related p.m.ing to each other (except wolves at NIGHT), even if you died
~once dead, stay dead. No posting on game or admin thread

Players:

Mormegil(M)-blacksmith specializing in weaponry
The Perky Ent(M)-pipeweed pusher, I mean salesman
Formendacil(M)-The Newspaper Editor-in-Chief Emeritus, Ph.D
Wilwarin(F)-sketchydrawer
TheSaucepanMan(M)-big beefy lumberjack
EomeroftheRohirrim(M)-Purveyor of Mystical Oddments
Shelob(F)-official pebble painter
ArcticStorm(M)-preacher
Gil-Galad(M)-Gonzalo the Llama Paladin Conqueror of distant lands
Alcarillo(M)-silversmith
AbercrombieofRohan(F)-anchoress
Marcolie Lamen(F)-Math book editor
AzaeliaofWillowbottom(F)-grassbasket maker
Boromir88(M)-brain unwasher (deprogrammer)
Cailin(F)-dramatic soprano


*game will start in about 40 minutes after Holby's death narration*

[Holbytlass]

In the wee of the morning, when the hours still belonged to nocturnal animals, a cool breeze blew across SeekHaven Island. It spoke of the new season when leaves were bursting forth in colors and the inhabitants would celebrate this year's bounty. It promised to be a beautiful day.

A scream shattered the calm. Those nearest jerked awake, threw on robes and ran out of their homes to find out what was going on.
"It sounded like it came from Holby's," said a villager. So the few of them grabbed lanterns and hurried up Riverside Path.

"Oh my," one said weakly. Before them lay Holby's door, it was torn off its hinges.
They ran into the little shack and a pitiful sight met their eyes. Holby, the pigeon-girl, was still in bed lying in a pool of her own blood. A faint gargled whisper escaped her lips.

"Were...", Holby whispered.
"Were..."

"Where's what, sweetie?", someone asked.
"Wolves", Holby breathed her last as a crimson bubble popped and trickled down her cheek.

"No-o-o," cried some of them, "werewolves? but how? why?"
"That's not all," a grim voice answered, "by the looks of things, these werewolves killed all of Holby's birds and from the different sized tracks we're dealing with three of them."

"We need help from the mainland," stated somone. So they made their way across North Bridge and received another shock. All the boats were destroyed.

"Clever beasts," said the same grim voice, "Don't you see? We're cutoff. No carrier pigeons to send messages and no boats to flee. Well, come on. We need to alert the whole town 'cause somebodies gonna pay."

As they trekked back down alerting all and summoning the cemetary keeper, the breeze picked up again. This time a mournful wail that spoke of a haven that turned to hell........


*wolves stop P.M.ing, DAY ends at 8:00p.m.EDT (12:00a.m. GMT)*

[The Perky Ent]

Alas, that those sneaky devils have taken Holby. She was a good person, to the last. And we're trapped! What are we to do?!? We have a sketcher, a blacksmith, a lumberjack, a silversmith, and a dramatic soprano. Surely we could build a boat and escape the wol- Ah....how would we know who the wolves are if we don't stop to look. Clearly, we cannot escape the island until the wolves are dead. What a tragedy this is! It's times like this I'm glad I have pipeweed to settle my stomache


:smokin:

[mormegil]

THEY KILLED THE PIGEONS!!! HOW AWFUL!

The whole Holby killing is a bit disconcerting as well. Well it looks as though business will be picking up for me.

Anybody need a weapon or two?

[Gil-Galad]

it begins indeed...

aye Mormegil, i shall be needed my sword, the grand uhh... well make me a sword then name it and Gonzalo shall conquer the wolves from this cursed town!

[The Saucepan Man]

I'll have some of that pipeweed, Perky. But I need no weapon, sir blacksmith. I prefer to rely on my trusty axe.

Looks like we need to find three Wolves out of the fifteen of us trapped here. Now all ye Villagers hear this, and particularly the Lycans among us.

I don't trust those who do not speak much.

I don't trust those who do not vote.

I don't trust those who make accusations without backing them up with good reasons.

and

I don't trust those who change their minds frequently or without reason.

Anyone doing any of those things will be subject to a long, hard examination from me. We ain't gonna find the Wolves by staying silent or by continually making baseless accusations. It is only through discussion and exchange of ideas that we will have any chance of tracking them down.

Oh, and I don't trust mysterious folks with grim voices. Who on earth was that? ;)

[The Perky Ent]

Aye, I would like one too. If you please, can you engrave it saying
Cookie Monster's Bane. He won't stop going for my cookie dough!

[Alcarillo]

Poor Holby! What an atrocity! And now we're cut off from the mainland, too. Let's lynch those werewolves and avenge our pigeons!

I suppose I'd better start making those silver bullets.

[The Perky Ent]

Ah, Saucepan. My regular! You need another fix...i mean, barrel? I believe your favorite was Bluebeard's Delight. Am I not right? And in regards to Saucepan's list, I follow the same code. But at the same time, my brother lived in a far off town, may his soul rest in peace. His town was invaded by a monster of some sort a heard. The monsters turned out to be the people running the investigation against the monsters! It is for this reason, that I also will not trust anyone who seems to be running the show from an omnipotent throne. Everyone is a suspect, but some are more than others.

And Saucepan, you can pick the barrels up any time you like (assuming those werewolves aren't running around)
:smokin:

[The Saucepan Man]

He won't stop going for my cookie dough!Who?

I suppose I'd better start making those silver bullets.What are these bullets you speak of? ;)

[Gil-Galad]

I accuse Alcarillo of witchcraft! burn him!!! burn him!!! he turned me into a newt!

[The Perky Ent]

Thank the stars! Alcarillo kept me from double posting! Saucepan Man, that person I am refering too is none other than Cookie Monster. He lives down Martin Luther King Blvd, formerally Riverside Oaks!

:smokin:

[The Saucepan Man]

Thanks Perky. I needed that, what with all the stress 'n all. Purely medicinal, you understand ... :rolleyes:

I suggest that we all repair to the inn, charge our glasses and get down to some talking. Er - why do we not have an innkeeper? :confused:

Darn! He must be safe on the mainland. Bad planning! Oh well, we can always leave the money on the counter.

It is for this reason, that I also will not trust anyone who seems to be running the show from an omnipotent throne. Everyone is a suspect, but some are more than others.Well, I don't suggest that we go round lynching people just because they are being vocal and offering up ideas. But you are right. At this stage, no one is above suspicion.

[Alcarillo]

What are these bullets you speak of? ;)

The obligatory anachronism, of course. :rolleyes:

I accuse Alcarillo of witchcraft! burn him!!! burn him!!! he turned me into a newt!

It's not witchcraft, it's gunpowder weaponry!

[The Perky Ent]

I accuse Alcarillo of witchcraft! burn him!!! burn him!!! he turned me into a newt!


Wow, Gil-Galad! I can really seen how saddened you are by Holby's death.
Well, I don't suggest that we go round lynching people just because they are being vocal and offering up ideas. But you are right. At this stage, no one is above suspicion

Well, from what I heard, two of the villagers were running the show for days. It wasn't just that they were vocal. They were dictation the entire show, slowly poisoning the minds of the villagers. Good think pipeweed isn't poison ;)

If you want, I might have a couple of glasses left in my broken distillery! Though, some people might have to share. I hear the innkeeper went to dislant lands, in search of business. Bromomeer, I think his name was ;)


:smokin:

[The Saucepan Man]

Saucepan Man, that person I am refering too is none other than Cookie Monster. He lives down Martin Luther King Blvd, formerally Riverside Oaks! Someone call the deprogrammer. I suspect Perky's losing it ... :eek:

It's not witchcraft, it's gunpowder weaponry!You turned Gil into a newt with gunpowder? Hmm, curious.

[Gil-Galad]

Alcarillo could have done something with the Gunpowder thingy to kill Holby!

[Márcolië Lamen]

Alas, poor Holby is dead. And so not to infect the others we must find them ourselves. I'll keep a Calculus book upon me at all times in order to knock one upon the head if I find myself in such a position to need one, but what do we do? Three wolves in our little village of 15. A whole fifth of us are wolves, us 80% must protect ourselves somehow to root out them and decrease there numbers to the limit of zero.

[The Saucepan Man]

Alcarillo could have done something with the Gunpowder thingy to kill Holby!Could be worth following up. We need to work out how Holby died.

Darn! The pathologist is away on the mainland too.

Darn! That's another anachronism ...

[wilwarin538]

Oh my! Not Holby! :eek: She was the only one in the village not creeped out by me drawing everything in town. She was amasing to draw, one of the only people I could manage to capture on paper. I will miss her greatly.

And we are trapped, I always knew it was a bad idea to move to an island. :rolleyes:

We must find these werewolves and quick. Or else our village will dwindle to an even smaller number then it already is. :(

[arcticstorm]

I am horrified to find that this monstrosity has happened under my very nose. I cannot beleive that we have three murderous scoundrels on this island with us, oh the horror of it all, I have failed in my attempt to bring an aspect of spirituality to this island. But we need to remember what is written in the good book, whoever sheds the blood of man by man shall his blood be shed. We need to root out these wolves and put an end to their reign of terror for good.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Oh dear, such a tragedy. Holby...and the birds...*sniff*

I don't suppose anyone needs a basket? No? Well, a girl can hope, can't she?

I say we get out there and hunt down some werewolves!

[arcticstorm]

let us examine what we have here

first of all, we have a death, killed by "wolf-men" or whatever you want to call them.
Second we have no way on earth of determining who is one of them, yet. Hopefully soon one of them will slip up and reveal himself to us, when/if that happens, we need to watch those who defend him, and those who are the first to accuse him. I will be keeping a careful eye on events as they unfold. I do not want to administer injustice and have some innocent blood on my hands.

[The Perky Ent]

Could be worth following up. We need to work out how Holby died.

Yeah, I wouldn't mind hearing more from Alcarillo, since we don't have a lot to go on. And now to The pan who be saucy's question. How did she die.

Well...*takes out a pipe, fills it, lights it, and begins to smoke*

Before them lay Holby's door, it was torn off its hinges.
They ran into the little shack and a pitiful sight met their eyes. Holby, the pigeon-girl, was still in bed lying in a pool of her own blood. A faint gargled whisper escaped her lips.... ...."That's not all," a grim voice answered, "by the looks of things, these werewolves killed all of Holby's birds and from the different sized tracks we're dealing with three of them."

Well, I'd say question number one (as it's the first piece of information) is how the door was knocked down. The entire description of her death is fairly vague. The only people we know of that are skilled in arms are Mormegil (blacksmith), SaucepanMan (big beefy lumberjack), and Alcarillo (silversmith). This is just arms mind you, and I have no doubt the wolves could use their bear (get it? bear! ) claws to knock it down. In terms of who wields what, we know that Mormegil makes swords, and saucy likes his axe. And of course, the most deadly weapon of all, Márcolië Lamen with the calculus book ; ). There are no mentions of marks on the door, but I have no doubt arms would help. They aren't necesarily my prime suspects, but it is something to keep watch on, I guess. Also, let us not forget that the hunter and the ranger also bear arms. Once again, the people I have listed are not necesarily on my suspect list, since I have not made a list yet, and it is too early to tell.


In terms of a bloody pool, that's fair wolves game. And as for the birds, well...smart planning, or someone hates birds. Either way, it's too vague to tell. Any ideas anyone? If you want, you can think it over with some pipeweed. If no one has anywhere else to turn, I myself would be intrigued in Alcarillo's defence from Gil-Galad's acusations.

:smokin:

[mormegil]

Oh my! Not Holby! :eek: She was the only one in the village not creeped out by me drawing everything in town. She was amasing to draw, one of the only people I could manage to capture on paper. I will miss her greatly.

My theory is that Wilwa, our little artist, enjoying to draw Holby so much, by her own admission, drew her too many times and got bored with her muse and the finite poses that the living Holby could offer. When Wilwa couldn't stand it any longer she let her desire to draw her favorite muse in a different position to get the best of her and killed her so as to provide her with new material for her twisted art!

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Once upon a daylight dreary, while I pondered, weak and weary,
Over many a quaint and curious volume of forgotten lore,
While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
As of someone gently rapping, rapping at my cavern door.
" 'Tis some visitor," I muttered, "tapping at my cavern door;
Only this, and nothing more."

Presently my soul grew stronger; hesitating then no longer,
"Sir," said I, "or madam, truly your forgiveness I implore;
But the fact is, I was napping, and so gently you came rapping,
And so faintly you came tapping, tapping at my cavern door,
That I scarce was sure I heard you." Here I opened wide the door;---
a villager there, and nothing more.

Long I stood there looking, peering, long I stood there, wondering, fearing
Doubting, dreaming dreams no mortals ever dared to dream before;
But the silence was unbroken, and the stillness gave no token,
And the only words there spoken were the whispered words,
What is it? This I whispered, and the upset villager murmured back the word,
“"Werewolves!” Merely this, and nothing more.

Back into the cavern turning, all my soul within me burning,
I needed to make up my mind quickly, something I was not good at, before
"Surely," said I, "surely, I must go down to the village.”
Let me see, then, what thereat is, and this mystery explore.
Let my heart be still a moment, and this mystery explore.
" I must go help with everything and more."

Down I ran the stately path, and into the village filled with wrath
And asked the village, “Who hath committed this unsightly gore?”
And not a sound reached my ears; though faces were drenched with woeful tears
I have not seen such a tragedy in all my books of lore
Why me, O God? I am but a faithful servant of your lore.
We must kill the wolves and nothing more!

P.S. I will not talk in poetic form the entire time, I just thought Poe was befitting for this dreadful time.

P.P.S. And I know the rhyme scheme is off where I changed some things, deal with it.

[Formendacil]

Clearly, my friends, there must be some connections between these werewolves hidden in our midst. They did not change to their true beings at dusk, and then all "happen" to descend on dear Holbytlass together. They must know each other well in real life.

And who have we seen being chummy so far more than The Saucepan Man and Perky... Indeed, they have been not only chummy, but also rather flippant about the whole affair, going on about smokes and pipeweed, which is really a most disgusting habit, and dangerous to one' health, to boot. Collusion? Perhaps...

Remember who it was that first started casting unwanted suspicions at quite possibly innocent villagers? The Saucepan Man!

I don't trust those who do not speak much.

I don't trust those who do not vote.

I don't trust those who make accusations without backing them up with good reasons.

and

I don't trust those who change their minds frequently or without reason.

Is he poking fun at himself, or do the latter two suspicions mask a malicious intent in the first two?

I do not know yet whether or not to suspect these two, nor have I any idea who a third person would be if they were guilty, but it is strange that they put themselves forward immediately with illfitting humour and comradeship so soon after this tragic event. It could be a sign of friends we can trust, or it could be a sign of comrades with a darker past...

I do not know yet...

[The Perky Ent]

Abercrombie - Interesting choice. Very clever, but ...the raven. Raven ---> birds . First thing that popped in my head when I saw that was Holby's dead birds. Makes me thing...

And secondly, And who have we seen being chummy so far more than The Saucepan Man and Perky... Indeed, they have been not only chummy, but also rather flippant about the whole affair, going on about smokes and pipeweed, which is really a most disgusting habit, and dangerous to one' health, to boot. Collusion? Perhaps...



Yes, we have been rather chummy, haven't we? I guess I just talk too much. If I seem to be blabbing to much about this and that, it's only for the destruction of the werewolves. I'm just trying to group thoughts to try and see patterns in the way people are acting. But foremost, INSULTING MY PROFESSION :eek: I have never been so insulted! The Newspaper Editor-in-Chief Emeritus, Ph.D, pfft! Truly you are full of lies and slander, if you are suggesting that pipeweed is a disgusting habbit. I happen to consider it as an art! Long have I worked on different brands of pipeweed, various recipies, and the fine mastery of smoke rings. Although I don't deny that it is harmful to one's health, in these trying times we need to losen up before we kill each other (ie lynch innocents and not the wolves)! Do you call cooks disgusting when they serve meals made from the inner parts of animals? Disgusting, my friend, is in the eye of the beholder. However, I do not approve of the death of villagers and slaugher of innocent birds. I would hope you reconsider before you insult my job. An old friend once told me never get in a fight with someone who buys ink by the barrel, but I won't stand by meek and helpless as someone questions my integrity! Good day!

:smokin:

[mormegil]

Yes, we have been rather chummy, haven't we? I guess I just talk too much. If I seem to be blabbing to much about this and that, it's only for the destruction of the werewolves. I'm just trying to group thoughts to try and see patterns in the way people are acting.


As am I. Interesting behavior has been noted.

[Formendacil]

Well, I do not wish to condemn people out of hand, but I have a vote to make, I believe, and it would be most tardy of me not to do so.

They say "let he who is without sin, cast the first stone", and while I am certainly not a saint, I am not a werewolf, and can only hope that my word will be taken as truth on that point, and so I must cast the first stone...

I do this reluctantly, and with great hope that I do not arrogantly condemn an innocent lamb among us, but I have a burden which cannot be set aside, (see here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=417842&postcount=1530)).

However, although I continue to have my suspicions about Saucie and Perky, I will cast my stone in another direction, fulfilling my civic duty and thus setting an example to the good citizens.

For reasons that really don't exist, I randomly accuse:

++Márcolië Lamen

[Cailín]

Ai ai ai ai!

Sorry, my dears, I have not rushed to the cause earlier, but you all know my shows (for whom, I wonder, stuck here on a nearly forsaken island?) finish so late, I've never been an early riser. Mia poor Holby! So kind, so peaceful and now she's lying in an early grave. Oh, such a harsh world we live in.

Now, we have not much to go on today, except that we are probably dealing with either very silly wolves or wolves that are able to build boats. If they cannot, they will be stuck on this island forever and eventually starve to death, when all of us (alas, alas) are long gone. That does not help much, cause I have no idea who is able to build boats or who is lacking in the brain area.

So who to look at? We already have an early vote - but explicitly stated for no reasons. I agree with what Saucy says here:

I don't trust those who do not speak much.

I don't trust those who do not vote.

I don't trust those who make accusations without backing them up with good reasons.

and

I don't trust those who change their minds frequently or without reason.

But something tells me we should also listen to dear Perky; for just because people are smart, vocal and logical, this does not mean they are innocent - no! - I shall be observing them very closely as well.

I personally think that - if we are dealing with slightly intelligent wolves - they will try to discover a pattern in what we innocent villagers are saying. As soon as they find out a pattern and we become (*gasp*) predictable, they will have a far easier time to delude us and guide us to our bloody and painful deaths. And who is more predictable than the one who reasons clearly and comes to logical conclusions?

I suggest, Mr. Saucepan, that you slightly revise the statements above, which I'm sure were well-intended, and never rule out those people you think make sense. For the only ones who can make sense of this situation... are the ones who started it.

[The Saucepan Man]

This is just arms mind you, and I have no doubt the wolves could use their bear (get it? bear! ) claws to knock it down.Precisely. The fact that morm and I have weapons is neither here nor there.

Clearly, my friends, there must be some connections between these werewolves hidden in our midst.Quite so. But they’d be crazy to make it too obvious early on, before having had any any opportunity to assess the “lie of the land”.

And who have we seen being chummy so far more than The Saucepan Man and Perky... Indeed, they have been not only chummy, but also rather flippant about the whole affair, going on about smokes and pipeweed, which is really a most disgusting habit, and dangerous to one' health, to boot. Collusion? Perhaps...Well, I can assure you that there was no intent to collude on my part. Perky was one of the few people around at the time and I wanted to get the discussion going, as it is only through talking that we will have any hope of catching these fiends. If we are going to start accusing people simply for talking and sharing ideas, then we might as well all slit our throats now.

As for being flippant about Holby’s death, well I am far more concerned with preventing further innocent deaths than with mourning someone who is now beyond our help. Anyone who spends more time mourning than in trying to find the Wolves looks suspicious in my eyes.

*Glares at wilwa and Azaelia*

As for pipeweed, well it helps clear my head. :smokin: :D

I suggest, Mr. Saucepan, that you slightly revise the statements above, which I'm sure were well-intended, and never rule out those people you think make sense. For the only ones who can make sense of this situation... are the ones who started it.Quite so. As I said earlier to Perky:

But you are right. At this stage, no one is above suspicion.I am not ruling anyone out. But I am not going to start accusing those who seem to me to be talking sense solely because they are being vocal, without any other evidence against them.

Right now, we have little in the way of evidence and in the absence of anything solid, I am most inclined to vote for those who are being least helpful.

Of course, going by my own criteria, Formendacil is looking the most suspicious at present. He outlines suspicions against two Villagers which are tenuous at best (and I would say as much even if I was not one of those that he suspects), and then votes for someone completely different without any shred of an explanation. Yet I am somewhat disinclined to vote for him solely on the basis of that alone when he is not present to explain himself further. He had to vote early and any vote that early on is going to be more or less randomly picked.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I see that The Saucepan Man has just made the point that I was beginning to formulate. Azaelia and wilwa's 'nothing' posts are precisely what I'd expect from: a) Bumbling newbies, or b) Insincere wolves. Now, word on the street is that the two of them have had previous experience in fighting wolves (at least that's what Ol' Bluetooth down in the woods told me – you may not have seen him but he's a decent fellow; I play cards with him at times).

Strange contributions from the two.

Formendacil's behaviour is also worrying. He casts suspicion on two villagers and then votes for another, completely at random. I don't like random voting.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

And who have we seen being chummy so far more than The Saucepan Man and Perky... Indeed, they have been not only chummy, but also rather flippant about the whole affair, going on about smokes and pipeweed, which is really a most disgusting habit, and dangerous to one' health, to boot. Collusion? Perhaps...

So, Formendacil, you claim suspicion of Saucepan and Perky, and yet you voted for Marcolie...Why not vote for those you already have suspicion of? Not, trying to bandwagon, just trying to get answers from what is unclear (to me at least.)

To Perky, I didn't wish to make comments against the birds! Actually, I hadn't even made that connection...

[Shelob]

Sorry to come somewhat late, couldn't be helped.

First off I'm not so sure if we can form a list of criteria and say "wolves will match this pattern", some wolves will but as soon as we define the list the smart one's will be sure not to. However to the point that the list says "Everyone is suspicious" it works, regardless.


Secondly, in regard to the list, "good reasons". Good reasons, indeed reasons of any kind, are somewhat hard to come by on the first day...right now I'm rereading and rereading looking for (probably) non-existant clues. After today though we'll have more to go on and so "good reasons" shall (hopefully) become more common.

For myself though, I can't come up with anything concrete. I'm reading posts and getting feelings, suspicions, about people just from the tone of their posts. For where that leads me now I would suspect everyone. From such a wide and varied list though I would pinpoint The Perky Ent, Mormegil, and Gil-Galad as being currently above the rest.

Mormegil I have little reason to suspect, but his intitial and almost over-reaction to the fate of Holby's birds has a strange feel to it. For Perky it is that he has said a lot and yet said a rather small amount. Not to say he's being unhelpful, some of what he says holds merit, some of it though seems to be naught but idle chatter.

For Gil-Galad, like Wilwarin and Azaelia he has posted little and all of it unhelpful...

and now I must escape...or be all but literally lynched (ah parents, the horror, the horror)...

[The Saucepan Man]

First off I'm not so sure if we can form a list of criteria and say "wolves will match this pattern" ...My purpose in setting out my criteria was not so much to identify a pattern of Wolfish behaviour, but to encourage them to talk and (when the time comes) to vote. If they don't talk and vote, we are going to have a very hard time spotting them. So, having set out my criteria, I will have no hesitation in voting for those that I do not think are contributing sufficiently. Even if they turn out not to be Wolves, I would rather see the back of them than innocent Villagers who are contributing to the debate. Particularly when there is very little in the way of other evidence to go on.

Having said that, you are right, Shelob, to point out that we should be wary of those who say much but tell us little.

Good reasons, indeed reasons of any kind, are somewhat hard to come by on the first day...True. But any reasoning, even gut instinct, is better than nothing because it gives us something that we can possibly work with.

Before the voting gets underway in earnest, I would just like to point out that it is in the Villagers' interests (and against the Wolves' interests) to keep the voting spread out as much as possible. Wolves love bandwaggons, because they can hide in them. If the voting is spread out, then it makes it more difficult for them to hide and they might be forced into a bold move to save one of their furry chums.

That doesn't mean that you should vote for someone that you have little suspicion of. But just bear it in mind when the time comes to vote. And keep an eye on how the voting progresses. There is no danger of a mass lynching, but it is worth taking into account who might buy it in the event of a tie.

[Márcolië Lamen]

So, Formendacil, you claim suspicion of Saucepan and Perky, and yet you voted for Marcolie...Why not vote for those you already have suspicion of? Not, trying to bandwagon, just trying to get answers from what is unclear (to me at least.)

I was wondering this too, not relation to the fact that the vote was for me. I really don't see the point of random votes if you have some supisions if you don't mention any reason why not to.

Then again, keping around those strongest players has reason, though it has killed many a village. If we choose this hopefully we don't doom ourselves like I heard they have from visiters before.


First off I'm not so sure if we can form a list of criteria and say "wolves will match this pattern" ...

I feel we could make a stronger statement and say if we made such a statement the wolves would try to avoid it stronger.

Most important now in the beginning is getting all involved so we have information to go on. If there are those who aren't participating its easier for the wolves to hide like this. Simarilly spreading out votes and avoiding bandwagoning now at the beginning at least.

There's not much information at all now, and it is very important to look at what we can, but I know that I am not the person best at first day lists and such. I will try though once I finish editing Chapter 3 of this new book.

[Cailín]

Before the voting gets underway in earnest, I would just like to point out that it is in the Villagers' interests (and against the Wolves' interests) to keep the voting spread out as much as possible. Wolves love bandwaggons, because they can hide in them. If the voting is spread out, then it makes it more difficult for them to hide and they might be forced into a bold move to save one of their furry chums.

Spreading the votes is a very sensible idea, so the voting pattern might tell us something tomorrow. However, it is then also very easy for the wolves to get the one they wish to get killed, really killed without raising much suspicion.

I fear it's almost like it's unavoidable to kill an innocent on day One. Most depressing... I think it would be helpful to not head into one or even two or three particular directions early on. If the wolves have no idea where the village is heading, they will be unable to get any control over it. Voicing suspicions is good, making early and rash decisions about who's not going to survive this day is only helpful to the wolves.

--

Anyway, I suppose it's time to start voicing suspicions. The Perky Ent, for example, is a name I'm hearing a lot toDay, especially in relation to The Saucepan Man. Right now, I don't think them guilty of anything, except something in relation to possibly illegal smoking substances. I must say Perky seems rather Perky about all this, but then again, he is Perky.

Formendacil... strange vote. But any vote so early in the Day would seem strange - as has been said before - and I really think SpM just scared him by saying he wouldn't trust anyone who failed to vote. Also - I'm very reluctant to vote for someone unable to defend himself. It's too easy.

Wilwarin and Azaelia both only expressed their sentiments so far... Which means I cannot accuse them of anything, which is ever so suspicious.

Shelob I find myself agreeing with, even though she has not said much. I can see where her suspicions come from, but do not necessarily share them.

Eomer and AbercrombieOfRohan both jumped on Formendacil's case, after Saucepan Man mentioned his suspicions of him. Are they werewolves trying to subtly lead the village into lynching an innocent? Probably not, but I do find it worth mentioning.

Márcolië Lamen, oh! you are cool, most definitely. Anyone slightly more foolish would have started defending him or herself after the vote, but you know and trust we will all see it as something completely random and meaningless. You are smart without being in danger and your thoughts seem to be put into words most carefully. Not that they're very helpful - but you stay in the picture. I will be watching you (but in a good, friendly not necessarily involving nasty gallows sort of way, for you are not yet in my top suspects list).

The others I'm still trying to get some more on. I see I have not voiced any real suspicions, probably because I don't have any. It's terrible to feel you have to distrust your fellow villagers...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You must admit though, Cailín, that Formendacil has a case worth jumping on. :p

What do you mean by the strategy of spreading the votes being

'very easy for the wolves to get the one they wish to get killed, really killed without raising much suspicion'

I don't quite follow you. If they really want to get a particular person killed then they will likely need to band together and vote for the same person, which would be very brave indeed; not to mention (or, in fact, to mention) highly suspicious – especially if they all come in near the end of the day to do it.

[Cailín]

That would be right, Eomer, if we did not spread the votes. If a lot of different people have - let's say - two votes, because we are trying to spread them, it would just take one wolf-vote, not three, to condemn someone they wish to get rid of - someone they suspect of being a gifted, perhaps. Though I admit this would be a highly unlikely situation today, since I don't think the wolves are gunning for anyone in particular just yet. But that's what I meant.

You must admit though, Cailín, that Formendacil has a case worth jumping on.

Yes. As does everyone on our little island right now. ;)

[The Saucepan Man]

If a lot of different people have - let's say - two votes, because we are trying to spread them, it would just take one wolf-vote, not three, to condemn someone they wish to get rid of - someone they suspect of being a gifted, perhaps.That would be a very risky thing for them to do in such a situation. Which is one of the reasons why it's a good idea to spread the votes around. If we have to lose an innocent (which, let's face it, is the likely outcome to-Day), then it will be pill less bitter to swallow if it helps lead us to a Wolf.

I'm beginning to form some useful impressions here, but I'm not going to share them until I see how things develop.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ah, I see what you mean, Cailín. And about that last comment – suspicious little minx, are you? You won't find many friends with that attitude, young lady. ;)

After some thought I now believe that Formendacil is trying out a strategy. I say this because I am fully aware how intelligent the man is, and I don't think he would do anything carelessly (though his vote may seem careless). I'll explain this in more detail later; those who understand this potential strategy will also understand why I can't name it right now.

(And don't bother pointing out the irony of me myself falling for it earlier; rest assured, I am already aware that it makes me look bad :rolleyes: ).

[mormegil]

Cailin speaks wisdom when it comes to Formendacil

Formendacil... strange vote. But any vote so early in the Day would seem strange - as has been said before - and I really think SpM just scared him by saying he wouldn't trust anyone who failed to vote. Also - I'm very reluctant to vote for someone unable to defend himself. It's too easy.

and

You must admit though, Cailín, that Formendacil has a case worth jumping on. Yes. As does everyone on our little island right now

I see Formendacil's vote as, what he said it to be, an attempt to fulfill his civic duty even though he really had little to go on he bravely voted. This is not a defense of him per se, rather an attack against those who wantonly accuse somebody for casting a random vote on day one. The most important part of what Formendacil said was this

However, although I continue to have my suspicions about Saucie and Perky, I will cast my stone in another direction, fulfilling my civic duty and thus setting an example to the good citizens.

For reasons that really don't exist, I randomly accuse:

He told us about his suspicions and admitted it to be random. I by no means think him innocent yet I think we should be careful to not get rid of him today based solely on this.

I would like Wilwarin to answer my little theory on her.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The more I consider this [Formendacil's vote] the more it makes sense.

Earlier, Saucepan Man said that he didn't trust those who:

Do not vote or change their minds frequently or without reason.

That's fair enough by my reckoning. But, he also says that he doesn't trust those who:

Do not speak much or make accusations without backing them up with good reasons.

Now fair enough, there's a difference between 'not trusting' and 'having suspicions of'. But I'm not sure I agree with Saucey here. I'd rather trust someone who makes one or two good posts than someone who says a whole lot of nothing. And 'stirring the pot' is absolutely necessary. Whether intentional or not, that's what Formendacil's vote has done (stirred the pot, that is); and I think it could prove to be useful. That is in no way a knock on Márcolië Lamen.

In my opinion, our chief danger is posts of no substance; and I count accusations of any nature to be a substance of sort.

[The Saucepan Man]

Eomer. I had hoped that I had explained all this in post #36 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=417906&postcount=36). You will see that I also agreed with the point that one or two posts of substance are a lot more useful than a whole lot of nothing.

As for unexplained votes, they do as a rule arouse my suspicion. But, as with all such matters, one must examine them on a case-by-case basis. In Formendacil's case, there are certainly extenuating circumstances. Basically, I think that we can take it for red that he had no option but to vote early, at a stage when there was very little information available. So, he voted randomly and made it absolutely clear that this was what he was doing. No attempt to make up spurious reasons for his vote. I took this into account in commenting earlier on his early vote (post #32).

Whether intentional or not, that's what Formendacil's vote has done (stirred the pot, that is)...Darn right it has. That was part of what I meant when I said that I was forming some useful impressions. And one such impression involved your reaction to Formendacil's vote, as stated in post #33 and quite forcefully repeated in post #39. You now seem to be backtracking. Any particular reason?

[Márcolië Lamen]

There is probably good in having 'stirred the pot', as long as people don't bandwagon or something against me killing an innocent. It forces others to come and talk. But everyone please don't hold it against me. I know it was random and because of that I couldn't defend myself against reasoning even if it would be worth it...

Everyone help with that and come out and talk. We need it for the good of the village, any substantial post helps us weed out those guilty of slatering our friend Holby


I can't voice suspsions I don't have, and I am suspicious of everyone on our island, well other than myself...
I feel it'd probably be better to not kill off the strongest strategiests because chances are since its so early in the game they're innocents. But be wary watching them still, almost more wary since they may be able to hide if they are wolves better than others.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sorry Sauce. Reading through the thread, some things jump out at me and others are pushed into the background. You did explain it pretty well.

And yes, I did underline Formendacil's name on the suspicion list. But 'forcefully repeated' it? Was it the tongue-smiley :p which added that extra 'force'?

I have since seen other options regarding Formendacil's vote; it's called being open to suggestion, and being un-dogmatic. I'm also noticing that our posts reflect similar behaviour in regard to this, Saucy – as in: Formendacil, from suspect to useful tactical strategist. It seems that my argumentative nature has spawned a rally out of nothing.

I'll have to vote very soon. The spirit-world calls to me. Plus, I have beads to tie.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++AZAELIA OF WILLOWBOTTOM

Because she didn't even try to set tongues wagging in her sole post; all she did was cry and try to keep as far away from the suspicion list as possible whilst at the same time making herself visible.

If I go this evening or tonite, please heed my warning: People do change their minds. Eru knows it's already got me in trouble, but I don't regret it. Far more worrying, I think, are empty posts. Watch out for them.

Away I go; to complete my tasks with my eyes on the night. Good luck!

[Boromir88]

Did somebody call for the deprogrammer? Perky losing his mind? Perhaps everyone is losing their mind. If anyone needs help with this tramatic experience I can make everyone forget in a few 20 minutes, just call me on over.

To the business at hand, as I said I would have very little time today, and this will be the last chance of me being on for today, so I'll have to make my decision.

Reading through the posts here I'm following the logic used against Formendacil and Azaelia.

Because she didn't even try to set tongues wagging in her sole post; all she did was cry and try to keep as far away from the suspicion list as possible whilst at the same time making herself visible.~Eomer
That indeed I find suspicious, and who I seem to be most voting for. This would also point towards Wilwarin.

I recognize nothing different in Sauce than I have before, so for now, he's fine with me, though he may be using the strategy to get his wolfishness unnoticed.

Though Formendacil's strategy is odd, quick votes, quick suspicions, I doubt a wolf would be so bold on Day 1 as to attract that much suspicion. I think our wolves are hiding and not saying much.

Also, I encourage you all to have your own brains and think for yourself, not do as the Romans do in Julius Caesar.

With that being said my vote must be casted very soon as I will be gone.

++Wilwarin.

[wilwarin538]

I would like Wilwarin to answer my little theory on her.


Well your theory is very wrong. I would never want to draw any one in such a condition. I would also never hurt any one for the sake of my sketches.

I also think its unfair for anyone to have voted so early when there could have been no way for me to defend myself(school). The same probably goes for Zali.

If you want my suspicions they are everyone who has voted so far. So Eomer, Boro and Formendacil. All three voted for people who hadn't posted very much, so they were eather random(Formen) or based on almost nothing(Boro, 'Mer).

I will most likely vote for one of them.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

I did not mean to be vehemently accusatory in my post against Formendacil, I was merely questioning his vote. It was (and is) far too early to have definite suspicions, and my questions were asked more rhetorically than anything else.

And so the recap:

Perky, Gilu-Gadi, and Mormegil spoke with the usual somberness towards the death of such a great member.

Saucy posted fourth with this interesting quote:

I don't trust those who don't speak much.
I don't trust those who do not vote.
I don't trust those that make accusations without backing them up with good reasons,
and
I don't trust those who change their mind frequently or without reason.

Now, I think this is kind of an odd (note: not necessarily wolvish) thing to post for two reasons.

1. Saucy says right off the bat which things he suspects in a player. This could aid the wolves, because they immediately know the type of thing a player like Saucepan looks for.

2. In spite of this, I do not not trust Saucepan, because he is too big an asset to the village to lose, but more importantly it just seems a logical step towards weeding out the wolves from the villagers by posting the things that are suspicious.

Back to the recap:

Saucepan and Perky banter about nonsensical things such as pipe-weed and drinks from the tavern. Trivial and harmless, I suspect they are doing nothing more than keeping interest growing and progressing until the blood starts to spill.

Interspersed in this Gilu-Gadi makes an accusation against Alcarillo. I can't decide whether or not Gilu is joking about his accusation and just pointing fingers, because we have little else to go on, or whether he really found something suspicious in Alcarillo's post. Hey Gilu, if you're reading, can you explain if you were being serious?

Originally posted by Perky Ent
If no one has anywhere else to turn, I myself would be intrigued in Alcarillo's defence from Gil-Galad's acusations.

Alcarillo, I too, am curious as to what your defense is, please explain.

Then Mormegil claims that he suspects Wilwa, but seemingly (to me at least) he does this only in jest and is just trying to get things started.

Formendacil claims suspicion of SPM in one of his two posts. Claims that Pan Man's first post is "casting unwanted suspicions at quite possibly innocent villagers?" I disagree, for I think SPM is doing the exact opposite and warning innocent villagers not to act this way. My initial half-hearted suspicion of Formendacil begins.

Perky once again posts with role-playing fluff. Is he trying to appear helpful, while covering up a dark secret? I do not know.

Formendacil returns and casts the first vote for Marcolie. He says that he knows that she is probably innocent, but needs to vote and must accuse someone, even randomly.

Saucepan returns and assuages my worries about him slightly, when he says:

Perky was one of the few people around at the time and I wanted to get the discussion going, as it is only through talking that we will have any hope of catching these fiends.

This was exactly as I had thought, so I felt better about SPM's posts. He also mentions that Wilwa and Azaelia have not made sufficient contribution to the discussion. And he claims suspicion of Formendacil.

Both Eomer and I seemingly "latch on" to SPM's post and suspicion of Formendacil. I know that, at least on my part, I was already slightly, slightly curious about Formendacil's behaviour and was just doing my part as a wondering innocent. I, quite simply, wanted to know what he was up to.

The idea of spreading the votes around as to dissaude a werewolf bandwagon comes up. I most definitively agree with this proposal.

Cailin comes in and posts a "friendly" watchful post on Marcolie.

Second vote of the day from Eomer against Azealia. He warns the village against voting for people just becuase they change their minds and he warns to look to the people who post often and say little.

Boromir enters and posts a vote against Wilwarin for not saying helpful things. He expresses the same sentiments felt by most of the villagers.

Wilwa posts and demands to know why she is being punished for being at school. She says that she is suspicious of those who have voted (Eomer, Boromir and Formendacil.)

From this, what should I think? It appears that SPM is being his usual logical self and I've nothing yet to say against him.

Formendacil's vote while suspicious, is a very risky move for a wolf to make and so I shall not vote for him just yet.

I think the one who tops my list right now is Perky Ent. As both Shelob and I have said, he posts often and says little. This could just be the by-product of the first day and a game that can be fun with a bit of roleplaying, but I still think that he could just be a wolvish fiend floating by.

Forgive the length, I'm just trying to get organised.

[Shelob]

My purpose in setting out my criteria was not so much to identify a pattern of Wolfish behaviour, but to encourage them to talk and (when the time comes) to vote. If they don't talk and vote, we are going to have a very hard time spotting them.

Even if they do talk we may have a hard time...but I see what you mean.


For the rest of this, as it stands an early vote tells us little...we can argue about what Formendacil, Eomer or Boromir88 were trying to do with their early votes but until we've all the votes (and their outcome) we can't really look at and for the meaning behind the votes. As it is now they have voted either because they're wolves hoping to start a bandwagon, or they simply have to due to time. Their votes have probably all been different in order to keep things spread out and to therefore keep down the chances of bandwagon and (hopefully) forcing the wolves into a pressured situation.


For suspicions...I don't know, I'm not inclined to suspect those who voted early simply because they voted early, as I said before until we can see more of the picture we can't see the reasons behind their votes...
Those I had before I still suspect, and those I've not yet named I still suspect (except myself, but then you probably figured that). Of everyone though I am right now most inclined to suspect Gil-Galad, it remains a combination of my initial suspicion and the fact that he has said nothing of real use. He has simply and persistantly (considering his few posts) accused Alcarillo...

[The Perky Ent]

drinks from the tavern. Trivial and harmless, I suspect they are doing nothing more than keeping interest growing and progressing until the blood starts to spill.

I do what I can if I can fit it in. It adds to the ambiance of the island.

Current votes

Formendacil ---> Márcolië Lamon
Eomer of the Rohirrim ---> Azaelia of Willowbottom
Boromir ---> Wilwarin
Azaelia ---> Gil-Galad

Well, I know I have gotten off on the wrong foot with Formendacil, and I was under the impression he would vote for either me or Saucy. I was quite suprised to see his vote for Marcolie Lamon. I fear there might be some secret strategy he's playing at. Wilwarin and Azaelia's express of caring are noted, and I'm still considering them. But, as said, they could be either be wolves or , like other people in the previous werewolf, innocent townsfolk who just got off on a bad foot. Now, silence isn't golden in this game, and I think the silent one's will start to register on my radar. Right now, people that will probably end up on my suspect list are Formendacil, Gil-Galad, Alcarillo. Those are just a few of the ones i'm considering. Oh, and saucepan man as well, simply because I can't trust him by the nature of his posts, and his list of what to look for in a wolf. Who better to make a list of what to look for in a wolf than the wolf itself? I'm not acusing saucepan man of being a werewolf, but I'm definitly considering it!

:smokin:

[Cailín]

Sorry for my longer than intended absense. I'm going to read through the latest posts now and will have to vote very soon...

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Well. Shame on me for making a rushed first post. I think, though, that as someone (Eomer?) has said, that as I have had previous experiences fighting wolves, I would not be so bad as to post like that. Well, let me put this forward: If I was a wolf, having had previous experience fighting wolves, would I really make the same dumb mistake as they say a wolf attempting to appear innocent would make? I don't think so.

Self-defense is a suspicious action. Shame on me twice. (apologies for the sarcasm)

I don't like how Sauce was right out there right away with his "I don't trust" list. It's very forward and, perhaps, does not take into account extenuating circumstances (in my case, school and visiting relatives).

And now I must be off again. I do not know who to vote for, but I will not be back before the deadline. What a dilemma. I wish to make clear that the following vote is made fairly randomly...

++Gil-Galad

Because he confuses me with his rather meaningless posts against Alcarillo. And I have nothing else to go on. (if he turns out to actually have a good reason for this suspicion and behavior, wow I'm going to get lynched bad :p )

[arcticstorm]

Those murderous lupines are doing an incredible job of concealing themselves, I have been listening to what everyone has been saing, and still I have almost no one on my suspect list. Formendacil's vote was rather suspicious when he had previously voiced suspicion in others, but it seems that it was just a random vote because he had no leads. Furthermore, it seems like no one is willing ot really make the first move and actually accuse someone else of being a wolf, yes we have had a few votes due to suspicious circumstances, but no one has actually accused anyone, it has all been an "I don't know" proposition. I have been looking at everything and I will be waiting for about an hour before casting my vote so I can see if anyone accidentally slips up, but right now I am pretty much dismissing Eomer, Boromir, and Formendacil, because I do not think a wolf would be stupid enough to vote so early. I will decide later who to vot efor, and God help us all if we are wrong in our decision

[Cailín]

Ai, this is indeed hard. To vote so early with so little to go on. Who to trust?

I’m quite reluctant to either vote for Wilwa or Azaelia, because I do not wish to jump on the Eomer – Boromir bandwagon (interestedly, though they voted for different people, they followed the same chain of thought. Not saying it’s a bad chain, but I distrust any chains today.) The Saucepan Man seems cluelessly himself, Formendacil has been too brave to not live through the day. I’m also inclined to trust Morm, Shelob and Marcolie for now.

So who do we have left?

Well, I don't think we'd wish to lose Eomer just yet. At least his posts are of a legible length (as opposed to some of mine) and he says no more than necessary.

The Perky Ent... I do not trust you. But then again, dramatic people never trust the perky ones. It's simply unnatural.

Gil-Galad: suspicious as ever. He appears to be completely ignorant of the situation and instead mumbles something about witchcraft. Strange medieval practices I’m not so fond of. But is it wolfish?

Alcarillo has not been very helpful either – less so even. Also, bullets? Don’t know what it means, but it sounds evil to me.

AbercrombieofRohan is really an adorable poet, so she won’t be getting my vote today. Not saying anything about tomorrow.

Articstorm does not want any innocent blood on his hands. But how about his claws or fangs or furry skin? He has said too little to make me trust him and is just making some general statements and observations to stay in the picture.

Boromir88… you were late indeed. Oh well.

So, I guess you could say Alcarillo, Gil and Arcticstorm are the three villagers I’m most suspicious of right now. I chose randomly, and

++ARCTICSTORM

You’re it.

[Gil-Galad]

i swear i went eenie weenie miny mo ++Saucepanman


see you sunday

[mormegil]

++Perky

not so random, he is the one that seems most suspect to me and Wilwa is not out of my sights yet.

His reaction to accusation seemed interesting and I noted it and posted my note too.

[The Saucepan Man]

I am slightly confused about the timing. Holby said the Day would close at 12pm GMT, which would be 1am for me I think, taking account of Daylight Saving. But I'm not sure. I'm working on a post with my thoughts, but don't want to miss the deadline. How long have we got?

[Shelob]

Alright...I understand needing to keep the vote close but there's also I point where I find it to be rather ridiculous. As it stands we have 7 votes--all for different people...

Assuming that somepeople will miss the deadline (or "miss" the deadline, if they feel the need) we're fairly close to having a completely pointless situation. A close vote is one thing, a this tie-vote where the first voted for will be lynched because there was no majority tells us nothing.

Therefore, I'm placing myself in prime lynching position for tomorrow by putting one person ahead of the others. Think of it as you will, but this is not a wolfish trick--it is rather an attempt to make any such tricks more visible.

With that I'll vote
++GIL-GALAD

Not randomly as all the other votes have been, but because I find him particularly unhelpful.


SPM--we should have about an hour, maybe an hour 15min....but to be safe go with an hour.

[The Perky Ent]

++Perky

not so random, he is the one that seems most suspect to me and Wilwa is not out of my sights yet.

His reaction to accusation seemed interesting and I noted it and posted my note too.


Yes, I have been rather talkative, haven't I? Just trying to figure out the safe from the wolf. Right now, I'm leaning twords Gil-Galad. He seems to be quite the cobbler. Random accusations with very little to back them up. I hate to seem like bandwagoning, but he has dwelt in my thoughts for quite some time. But I'm going to take the time before I vote to reread all the posts, and see if I can pick anything up before I make my decision

:smokin:

[Alcarillo]

I apologize for my long absence from the village discussions, for I had some work at my forge to attend to.

It seems that I am now suspected by some, mostly for my silver bullets comment. Don't silver bullets kill werewolves? Or vampires? Or is it gold bullets? Nevermind. The accusations against me seem very tenuous, anyways.

I would like to hear from those silent people, especially Gil-Galad. He accused me of witchcraft (jest or not, I do not know), and now many people seem to have listened to him. Perhaps he and his werewolf friends have decided to cast suspicion towards me?

Lynching somebody because he or she's been very quiet sounds a bit unfair, but so early in the game I can see why it might be done. Silence does not tell us anything, and so late in the day I would expect a little more.

EDIT: His vote for the Saucepan Man seems to have no basis. If you're voting randomly, don't vote for a helpful villager!

[wilwarin538]

Well I don't really want to add another name into the mix of votes, so I won't vote for one of the boys I mentioned before. Instead I will vote for:

++Perky

I reread everything and I am now also suspicious of him. He talks a little to much.

So my list(in no order):
Boromir88
Eomer
Formendacil
Perky

[arcticstorm]

Articstorm does not want any innocent blood on his hands. But how about his claws or fangs or furry skin? He has said too little to make me trust him and is just making some general statements and observations to stay in the picture.


while it is true that I have only making general statements instead of accusing anyone, there is a reason for that. Frankly I am just extremely befuddled, and we cannot afford to make many mistakes. I do not know who to vote for today since I have no clue as to who could be a wolf.

with that in mind, I will continue to look and judge people's reactions to what people say, and then I will make my final call. Unfortunately that means I will probably have a blank vote today, unless something changes soon.

[The Perky Ent]

++Gil-Galad


I've given my reasons. He acuses people out of the blue

I accuse Alcarillo of witchcraft! burn him!!! burn him!!! he turned me into a newt! Most likely an attempt for humor, but I see it as something that could be a problem. Alcarillo could have done something with the Gunpowder thingy to kill Holby! Once again, Gil shows poor reasoning for acusing Alcarillo of being a werewolf. His lackluster logic (huray for aliteration!) for his reasonings gives him feeble support. i swear i went eenie weenie miny mo ++Saucepanman


see you sunday :rolleyes: I swear, if this game had a cobbler... In my opinion, Gil-Galad seems to be a poor slot to fill in the village, and unless he is operating out of some strategy, I am disapointed. Certainly, he is capable of posting more than a sentance, and guessing literally randomly on who to kill. If all these examples aren't enough, I don't want someone in the village who will randomly try to kill an innocent just because it's the luck of the draw. Several people have voted with much doubt and little clarity as to why, but at least they give the best explanation they can as to why the person they're voting for deserves to die.

Oy! :smokin:

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I could make a case against just about everyone (even myself ;) ) at the moment. Equally, I can find things about just about everyone that could speak of their innocence.

A few of the reactions to things that I have said interest me.

Some people seem to have mirrored my comments with their own thoughts. Eomer of the Rohirrim comes to mind. After I pointed out that Formendacil’s early vote met my criteria for distrust (but signified that I was disinclined to vote for him to-Day), he made an accusation of Formendacil, which he later backtracked on. He also picked up on my comments about Azaelia and wilwa. Abercombie also seems to have been following along with my train of thought to an extent. This unnerves me, since I am worried that one or both of them may be trying to identify themselves with me. I think that I am a pretty good candidate to die to-Night (assuming that they cannot find the Seer) and they may be hoping that my innocence, when discovered, will shield them (good grief, I sound like the phantom :rolleyes: ). Eomer concerns me in particular since, even though I was antagonistic towards him, he avoided rising to the bait.

Some seem to have misinterpreted my comments - perhaps mistakenly, or perhaps wilfully. Eomer did this when he overlooked my explanation of my reason for setting out my criteria (post #36), but retracted his comments when I pointed him towards it. Yet others have subsequently done the same:

Saucy says right off the bat which things he suspects in a player. This could aid the wolves, because they immediately know the type of thing a player like Saucepan looks for.I already said that I was trying to provoke the Wolves into talking and voting, rather than staying quiet and hiding.

I don't like how Sauce was right out there right away with his "I don't trust" list. It's very forward and, perhaps, does not take into account extenuating circumstances (in my case, school and visiting relatives).I already said that I would be looking at things on a case-by-case basis. Of course I am not going to vote for somebody if there were good reasons for them not being able to contribute.

Then there was this comment by Abercrombie:

In spite of this, I do not not trust Saucepan, because he is too big an asset to the village to lose, but more importantly it just seems a logical step towards weeding out the wolves from the villagers by posting the things that are suspicious.

You said that you do not trust me because I am an asset to the Village and because I seem to be trying to weed out the Wolves. An innocent mistake - or a Freudian slip?

And then this by Cailin:

The Saucepan Man seems cluelessly himself ...Well, I fully acknowledge that my reasoning may be awry. But how do you know it is?

All of these comments have got my suspicions up.

Then there’s Gil. Let‘s face it, there’s always Gil. Perhaps we should lynch him now because otherwise we will be considering lynching him every Day until he is finally lynched. It's almost inevitable that he will be at some point. He had a flurry of comments early on (just after I said I distrust those who do not speak), but said very little of substance. His baseless accusation of Alcarillo is suspicious, but it may just have been banter. What concerns me more is that, on the back of this, Perky has made a number of demands that Alcarillo explain himself. What for? A random accusation by Gil based on Alc's mention of gunpowder? I don’t get it.

The early votes from Formen and Boro don’t really concern me at the moment. They have been adequately explained, although I may revisit them tomorrow, if I get the chance.

I agree that the lack of substantive comments in Arcticstorm’s contributions is slightly suspicious. Same goes for wilwa (although at least she has voted). But I’m not going to hold it against them just yet.

That leaves morm, Shelob, Alcarillo and Marcolie, against whom I have no evidence at the moment.

So. Who should I vote for? Like Shelob, I don’t think there is any need now to spread the votes out further. My hunch is that, with the votes spread out so much and the likelihood of a Wolf being in danger, at least one Wolf and possibly two are leaving it ‘til late to vote. Those who have not voted yet are Abercrombie, Alcarillo, Arcticstorm, Marcolie, Perky and, of course, me. At the risk of looking suspicious myself, I am going to leave it for now and see what happens. I have about 40 minutes, as I understand it.

Edit: Cross-posted with Perky, who has now voted.

[Márcolië Lamen]

I really don't know what time voting closes...

In terms of voting I really have no idea. So choosing mostly randomly but taking into consideration not losing the highest strategists, my vote goes to

++articstorm

[Alcarillo]

The only person whom I have suspected is Gil-Galad. His useless chatter, random accusations, and random vote are just too unhelpful. He is the only person I am suspicious of at the moment, and he has had plenty of opportunities to defend himself, and yet he does not.

++Gil-Galad

Even if he turns out to be innocent, we, as Saucepan Man said, will eventually lynch him; and it's better to lynch an innocent today than later when it matters most for the village. On the first day, he seems like the best choice to me. Let us hope that he is a wolf.

[The Saucepan Man]

Perky, I find it hard to square these two comments of yours:

If no one has anywhere else to turn, I myself would be intrigued in Alcarillo's defence from Gil-Galad's acusations.

Once again, Gil shows poor reasoning for acusing Alcarillo of being a werewolf.I would prefer to avoid cutting off my pipeweed supply, so I would welcome some sort of an explanation ...

I would note also that Abercrombie followed Perky's lead in demanding an explanation from Alcarillo on the basis of Gil's ludicrous accusation:

Alcarillo, I too, am curious as to what your defense is, please explain.These two, together with Eomer, are at the forefront of my thoughts at the moment.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, with three votes to go, it's between Gil-Galad and Perky.

Gil-Galad would not be the worst choice that we could make. Even if he's innocent, it would remove a stumbling block to future voting. I am not wholly convinced of his guilt, though.

Perky, however, I do suspect. And I wonder if there is some sort of effort going on to make sure that he does not face the noose. I shall have to vote shortly, yet am still undecided between the two.

[Shelob]

As it stands though it's
Perky-2
Gil-4

unless there's a sudden sweeping movement for Perky the best a vote for him could do was pressure the wolves...which is a good enough reason to vote for him, you can't gain anything by voting for Gil-Galad...with a 3:4 vote it'll at least make it so the wolves have to really think (provided they've not all voted already)

[mormegil]

Votes are

4 for Gil
2 for Perky
2 for Articstorm

those are the ones that really matter at this point. It looks as though Gil will be lynched though I suspect Perky more. The only way for Perky to be gone is if all 3 remaining vote for him. If there is a wolf left and Perky is a wolf they will avoid voting for him. Keep that in mind if we find out Perky is a wolf.

[The Saucepan Man]

I had left arcticstorm out of the equation, morm, because I do not intend voting for him.

... which is a good enough reason to vote for him, you can't gain anything by voting for Gil-Galad...with a 3:4 vote it'll at least make it so the wolves have to really think (provided they've not all voted already)My thoughts exactly, Shelob.

It looks as though Gil will be lynched though I suspect Perky more.I agree.

++THE PERKY ENT

Let's see what happens ...

[mormegil]

I had left arcticstorm out of the equation, morm, because I do not intend voting for him.


I figured but I thought I would add him anyway. Now I feel Shelob fairly innocent because she voiced the same thought I had at the same time. We both thought of a way to add heat to the wolves.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, if they don't vote, I shall expect explanations from Abercrombie and Arcticstorm tomorrow. Provided I am still here, that is. :rolleyes:

[Shelob]

she voiced the same thought I had at the same time.

It calmed most of my suspicions on you too...though my initial reaction was more along the lines of "Great, somebody else is taking over my mind."

I shall expect explanations from Abercrombie

Actually, thinking on it, I'm pretty sure Abercrombie had something from about 4.30 to 8-ish (EDIT: eastern time)...which would explain why she hasn't voted now...though she probably could/should have voted early...

[Holbytlass]

*time*

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

No!!!!

++ Perky

Oh, my gosh, look for an explanation of the other thread, I'm so sorry.

[Holbytlass]

The village of Seekhaven Island was established over 100 years ago. It was a place of peace, harmony and a simpler life than the hustle and bustle of mainland towns.

It was prosperous in its own right. With plenty of resources to keep all the trades busy and rich soil that yielded hardwood trees and grains and produce form the communal fields. All this was traded amongst themselves and sold to the towns. Commerce was alive and well, but the barge would not come for another month.

All day the villagers came to the Inn and debated long and hard on who would do such an atrocity. All were at a loss as to who, but time waits for no one and winter was coming. So all came and went as much as they could for daily chores needed to be done.

"Some semblence of normalcy must be maintained," one sagely said.
And the others agreed if only for a chance to to escape the hot debates so they could hear themselves think.

But all too soon, the sun grew large and very orange as it cast long shadows of haystacks and piles of pumpkins. Most came back to the Inn to do the unthinkable, vote for someone's death.

At long last, the tally had been counted and Gil-Galad Gonzalo the Llama Paladin Conqueror of Distant Lands was to be executed.

"I'm innocent! I did no such thing!" he cried, but to no avail. A couple of the men grabbed him and hog-tied him for good measure.

"Now what are we going to do?" was the cry. Afterall, nothing like this had ever happened. So they all wracked their brains for werewolf lore and someone finally remembered something about silver.

The silversmith and the blacksmith were called upon. "Blacksmith, take your arrows and go with the silversmith and dip the tips in silver."

As this was done, Gil-Galad was then dragged out and tied to a tree.
Those who voted for him took up bows and in 'firing squad' fashion shot Gil dead.

And dead he stayed.

Instant remorse filled everyone but something had to be done tonight.

"We should all sleep in the Inn," someone suggested.
"Yes, safety in number." some cried.
"No, easy pickings." others cried.

To each their own. Night had come all went to bed.

~Wolves may start P.M.
Names form wolves, seer, ranger, hunter


ordinary:11
wolves:3

dead
Holby(mod-pigeon girl) clawed from wolves night 1
Gil-Galad(Ordinary)shot by firing squad day1

living
Morm
Perky Ent
Formendacil
Wilwarin
Saucepan Man
Eomer
Shelob
Arcticstorm
Alcarillo
Abercrombie
Marcolie
Azaelia
Boromir
Cailin

[Holbytlass]

One lay awake listening intently, deer bedding down in the crisp leaves, frogs croaking, neighbors snoring. A smile spread across the one's face, as it got up and went out the door already transformed.

Sniffing the woodsy smell with it's keen nose, it loped to the appointed spot where the other two were waiting. Seeing one another, they laughed rather nervous barky laughs, pleased with the first kill and avoided being killed. True, it was one less person to taste sweet meat from but better he then they. The only downside was the villagers now knowing about them.

The wind whistled through their fur as they debated on who tonight. They chose the safer route and headed for a single home occupied by a single person...

At first light, everyone assembled for the head count. Guts tightened and mouths dried when they came up one short. Running to the bank of the river, they found the home empty, so the search began.

Another scream ripped across the island, this time from the fields. All ran to the spot where one stood frozen pointing to the pile of pumpkins.

On the top, a head was placed. The top of the skull was removed and the eyes, tongue and brain matter were scooped out. It was filled with pebbles and a flickering candle, the melted wax oozing out of every orifice.


*Entertainment value only! No quotes, theories or suspicions will be based upon narration (other than why they killed who they killed). There are no hints and any coincidence is unintentional, if you are seeing them then that means you are desperate and/or paranoid!*

villagers:10
wolves:3

dead
Holby(mod) clawed from wolves night 1
Gil-Galad(Ordinary)shot by firing squad day1
Shelob(ordinary)killed by wolves jack-o-lantern style night2

living
Morm
Perky Ent
Formendacil
Wilwarin
Saucepan Man
Eomer
Arcticstorm
Alcarillo
Abercrombie
Marcolie
Azaelia
Boromir
Cailin

~wolves stop P.M.ing

[The Perky Ent]

...Alas, Another one bites the dust. I was afraid that Gil-Galad was not of the lupine, but as Alcarillo said Even if he turns out to be innocent, we, as Saucepan Man said, will eventually lynch him; and it's better to lynch an innocent today than later when it matters most for the village. he was doomed. Shelob's death really isn't that suprising, as there were no real suspicions twords Shelob, and the werewolves could get away with it easily. What to do, o what to do!?! TGIPT: Thank God It's Pipeweed Time!

:smokin:

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm very sorry to see Shelob go. Our exchange close to the deadline for voting yester-Day made me think that she was probably innocent. Although it also puts morm in a favourable light, as far as I am concerned.

I suspect that Shelob was killed because she was not high on anyone's suspect list and, having voted for Gil, her death does not leave us with much of a trail.

As for Gil, well it's always sad to see the back of another innocent, but there are worse choices that we could have made.

I am not sure that it will tell us much to-Day but, anyway, here is the voting for yester-Day, in order and showing the state of voting with each vote:

1. Formedacil for Marcolie Lamen (Marcolie - 1)
2. Eomer for Azaelia (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1)
3. Boromir88 for wilwarin (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1)
4. Azaelia for Gil-Galad (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 1)
5. Cailin for Arcticstorm (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 1; Arcticstorm -1)
6. Gil-Galad for SpM (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 1; Arcticstorm -1; SpM - 1)
7. Mormegil for Perky (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 1; Arcticstorm -1; SpM - 1; Perky - 1)
8. Shelob for Gil-Galad (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 2; Arcticstorm -1; SpM - 1; Perky - 1)
9. Wilwa for Perky (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 2; Arcticstorm -1; SpM - 1; Perky - 2)
10. Perky for Gil-Galad (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 3; Arcticstorm -1; SpM - 1; Perky -2)
11. Marcolie for Arcticstorm (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 3; Arcticstorm - 2; SpM - 1; Perky -2)
12. Alcarillo for Gil-Galad (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 4; Arcticstorm - 2; SpM - 1; Perky -2)
13. SpM for Perky (Marcolie - 1; Azaelia - 1; wilwarin - 1; Gil-Galad - 4; Arcticstorm - 2; SpM - 1; Perky -3)

Did not vote:
Abercrombie of Rohan
Arcticstorm

I'm off to reveiew yester-Day's events. In the meantime, I would welcome a response to some of the points I raised towards the end of the day yester-Day, particularly from Perky and Abercrombie. I would also like to hear from arcticstorm why he did not vote yester-Day.

[The Perky Ent]

Aren't I the popular one :rolleyes: Sorry if I sound idiotic and foolish, Saucy, but what would you like to know? I know I'm high on people's suspect list, so I'd really like to see what I can do to prove i'm not a werewolf (other than getting lynched, though I see that's what several of you were going to do.)Let's see what happens . . . What would you have me do?

:smokin:

[The Saucepan Man]

Sorry if I sound idiotic and foolish, Saucy, but what would you like to know?A response to this would be nice:

Perky, I find it hard to square these two comments of yours:

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Perky Ent
If no one has anywhere else to turn, I myself would be intrigued in Alcarillo's defence from Gil-Galad's acusations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Perky Ent
Once again, Gil shows poor reasoning for acusing Alcarillo of being a werewolf.

I would prefer to avoid cutting off my pipeweed supply, so I would welcome some sort of an explanation ...

[The Perky Ent]

Maybe I do need that deprogrammer! Originally Posted by The Perky Ent
If no one has anywhere else to turn, I myself would be intrigued in Alcarillo's defence from Gil-Galad's acusations.

It appears that I had scanned past Alcarillo's post, or had forgetten it's existance. I apologize for confusing you, since I believe he already defended it. Once again, Gil shows poor reasoning for acusing Alcarillo of being a werewolf.

I would prefer to avoid cutting off my pipeweed supply, so I would welcome some sort of an explanation ...

What I meant by that, which I think I had explained earlier, was that his acusation was out of the blue, and didn't have any real facts behind it. It wasn't something like "Johnny the Balrog should be lynched! He keeps giving off hints about fur and claws and himself being a wolf! He's a werewolf! lynch him!" There was no real evidence that could be proven against him. I hope these are satisfactory answers, as I am not the wordsmyth I once was (or never was :( ).

:smokin:

[The Saucepan Man]

That's all very well, Perky. But I still don't get how you can square backing up Gil's accusation with later using it as a basis for voting for Gil. You accused Gil of making a baseless accusation, and yet it was just as baseless when you earlier judged it sufficiently meritorious as to require an explanation from Alcarillo.

[arcticstorm]

I would also like to hear from arcticstorm why he did not vote yester-Day.


I do not know who to vote for today since I have no clue as to who could be a wolf.

with that in mind, I will continue to look and judge people's reactions to what people say, and then I will make my final call. Unfortunately that means I will probably have a blank vote today, unless something changes soon.

I had to leave for a few minutes as well before voting closed to go work on something for sunday, and I got back literally 1 minute after voting closed, and had I had time after reading through the votes, I would probably have given my vote to Perky, but I still have no clue as who might be a wolf. I have a little more to go on now and will vote before the end of the day.

[The Perky Ent]

Wow Saucepan Man! You are quite the wordsmith! You sure you're a big beefy lumberjack, and now a lawyer? I even had to look up meritorious. Quite astounding, really. I applaud your inquisition against me, as it is very extensive.
That's all very well, Perky. But I still don't get how you can square backing up Gil's accusation with later using it as a basis for voting for Gil. You accused Gil of making a baseless accusation, and yet it was just as baseless when you earlier judged it sufficiently meritorious as to require an explanation from Alcarillo.

I really can't support myself in the way you want me too. It was the first day, and I know I screwed up. I didn't have a strong case aparently, and I spoke too loud, making everyone suspect me. Anyone else other than Saucepan Man want to know something from me?

:smokin:

[The Saucepan Man]

Wow Saucepan Man! You are quite the wordsmith! You sure you're a big beefy lumberjack, and now a lawyer?Well I get a lot of time to think and mull things over up there in them woods. ;)

I didn't have a strong case aparently, and I spoke too loud, making everyone suspect me.I still do, although your explanation does have a non-Wolvish ring to it. I would have expected a Wolf to have tried to cobble something a bit more convincing together. But perhaps I should not expect the obvious.

It seems to me to be a great shame that Abercrombie and arcticstorm were not able to vote yester-Day, for then we would have seen whether they would indeed have voted for Perky, as they claim they would have done. Had they done so, Perky rather than Gil would have been the village's chosen lynchee. Abercrombie's claim seems the truer to me as she did at least voice suspicions of Perky earlier in the Day, but arcticstorm indicated no such thoughts. Mind you, he didn't seem to have any theories, which is itself suspicious.

[The Perky Ent]

I really wish more people were talking right now. It just seems to be Saucepan questioning my faults at this point. Saucepan Man, I really don't know what to say about you. You seem to be rallying people to your experiment Let's see what happens... and it's starting to make me think of what I posted in the beginning But at the same time, my brother lived in a far off town, may his soul rest in peace. His town was invaded by a monster of some sort a heard. The monsters turned out to be the people running the investigation against the monsters! It is for this reason, that I also will not trust anyone who seems to be running the show from an omnipotent throne. Everyone is a suspect, but some are more than others.

You just seem to have too much control. I really don't know what to say about you. I can't find any signs in your writing as to who you are, which is most likly due to your being in previous werewolf games. You really are a mystery to me.

I don't think Formendacil has explained yet why he voted for someone out of the blue, after saying he suspected Saucepan and I. I'd like to hear why.

:smokin:

[Boromir88]

Alas poor Shelob, she was a client of mine. I actually had to deprogram her once. Rather sad story, was taken in by a cult and brainwashed to starve themselves. Her parents, now long gone, begged me to deprogram her. Some people say it's an odd occupation, many think it's brainwashing, and in some ways it is, I mean you have to brainwash to undo a brainwash, but tis a sad day.

On to business at hand. I explained many days before that I wasn't going to be around on Friday, hence my quick reply and quick vote. I didn't have much time to think for myself, so I was basically going off of what others were saying, but no more my friends, heres some observations.

Ok, Voted for Perky:
Mormegil
Wilwarin
Saucepan


Voted for Gil:
Perky
Shelob
Alcarillo
Azaelia

Voted for arcticstorm:
Marcolie
Cailin

Voted for Azaelia:
Eomer

Voted for Wilwarin:
Boromir

Voted for Sauce:
Gil-galad

Did not vote:
Abercrombie
arcticstorm

Based off voting from yesterday, I think one wolf voted for Gil-Galad. Shelob is killed, could be an attempt to make those who voted for Gil-galad look innocent. Right now this points to Perky and Alcarillo.

I also think a wolf did not vote yesterday. Yesterday, I took arcticstorm's comment about not wanting to have an innocent's blood on his hands as being a preacher he would naturally not want to have innocent's blood on his hands. But, I must look at this and say it's somewhat suspicious. At some point in time I think you'll have to step out and vote, and you may make a mistake and he/she will turn out to be innocent. Bottomline is, if you don't vote you look suspicious to me, because you aren't assisting in killing these beasts.

I don't find early votes suspicious especially when 2/3 come out and said prior that they would be going and wouldn't be back.

This leaves one more wolf, but I don't got anything too concrete off voting so I'll have to go to the posts...

Mormegil:
Suspected: Formendacil, Wilwarin
Voted for: Perky

Perky:
Suspected: Alcarillo, Mormegil, Sauce, Marcolie, Formendacil, Gil-galad
Voted for: Gil-galad

Formendacil:
Suspected: Sauce, Perky
Voted for: Marcolie

Wilwarin:
Suspected: Eomer, Boromir, Formendacil
Voted for: Perky

Saucepan Man:
Suspected: Perky, Abercrombie, Eomer, Gil-galad, Cailin
Voted for: Perky

Eomer:
Suspected: Formendacil, Azaelia
Voted for: Azaelia

Shelob:
Suspected: Gil, Mormegil, Perky
Voted for: Gil-Galad

arcticstorm:
Suspected: None
Voted for: None

Alcarillo:
Suspected: Gil-galad
Voted for: Gil-gald

Abercrombie:
Suspected: Perky, Gil-galad, Alcarillo, Mormegil, Formendacil
Voted for: No one, but if in time would have been Perky.

Marcolie:
Suspected: No one strongly that I found
Voted for: arcticstorm

Azaelia
Suspected:: Saucepan
Voted for: Gil-galad

Cailin:
Suspected: Wilwarin, Azaelia, Eomer, Formendacil, Alcarillo, Gil-galad
Voted for: arcticstorm

Ok, so what's all this jumbo mean. As I said above, it may be a ploy by the wolves to kill Shelob in order to make a fellow wolf who voted for Gil look innocent. This would point to Perky and Alcarillo

Perky, Abercrombie, and Cailin had rather long suspect lists. Whether this show uncertainty or a wolf trying to stir up the pot and throw out several names I can not tell, but worth being watched.

I too am worried about Abercrombie's "attachment not only to Sauce, but also to me. As I said in my only post yesterday...
I recognize nothing different in Sauce than I have before, so for now, he's fine with me, though he may be using the strategy to get his wolfishness unnoticed.

Though Formendacil's strategy is odd, quick votes, quick suspicions, I doubt a wolf would be so bold on Day 1 as to attract that much suspicion. I think our wolves are hiding and not saying much.
Abercrombie basically reiterates what I said...
From this, what should I think? It appears that SPM is being his usual logical self and I've nothing yet to say against him.

Formendacil's vote while suspicious, is a very risky move for a wolf to make and so I shall not vote for him just yet.
I'm also not sure about the whole point of the recap? I see nothing to take from it except a long post that says what's gone on so far. Though it may be an attempt to help us and give a rundown, if someone wanted to know they could just look.

Saucepan is acting like his usual self, being one of the most helpful around, but since I'm a simple villager I do not trust him and wouldn't put it passed him of him trying to pull something over on us. However, at this point I seem to be thinking along his same lines and as long as his suspects turn out to be wolves and not innocents then I have faith in him.

So right now the names I keep seeing myself typing are:
Perky
Abercrombie

Ones I'm looking to see more from:
arcticstorm
Azaelia
Alcarillo

More will come later, I must be off.

[arcticstorm]

OK,
first of all, I agree with Boromir's assessment that a wolf probably voted for Gil yesterday. Ans with the other two being Perky, Azalia and Alcarillo, it makes for an interesting assessment, if they did not. But let us assume for a second that Perky is a wolf. then we could eliminate Morm, Wilwa, and Saucepan from suspicion probably. It would be too risky to vote for a fellow wolf if there is a chance he is innocent. So I will make a bold statement and say one of these three is probably a wolf, and therefore Perky is more than likely innocent. Yes earlier I did say that I probably would have voted him yesterday, but after having looked a little closer at things, thanks to Boromir and Sauce, I will lean closer to Alcarillo or Azalia. Today I will probably vote for one of them, unless something changes. Furthermore, I would like to point out that would I have voted yesterday, I really had no suspicions. But I had made a random choice in my mind while I was working. I got back to my dismay to find the voting closed 1 minute prior, so I was at least thankful of posting my intentions to not vote yesterday. So right now the top two are Alcarillo and Azalia, with Morm and Wilwa filling the next two spots on my suspicion list.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Ok, I've given my explanation for my no vote yesterday, but I'll restate it just in case someone missed it. (All times are EST)

I had driving lessons from 6-7:30 in a town not far from mine, approximately a 15 minute drive. Do the calculations and I figured I had about 15 minutes to read and vote. We got to the driving school a little early, approx. 7:21, so I was even more reassured. Then everything went wrong, because when my mom pulled in, about 7:30, she said she had to go and re-schedule appointments and so I began my panic. We didn't end up leaving there until 7:45 and I was in a mad state. Believe me when I tell you that I wanted to vote so badly and I'm terribly sorry I missed it. It's my fault, I should've voted earlier, when I knew I had the time. Please forgive me.

But what's done is done, and I can't change that.

Now, on to suspicions.

Saucepan Man you claimed suspicion of me because I seemed to be following too closely to your suspicions. So tell me, what else choice did I have? It was the first day, I'd never played in a BD werewolf game before, you are a logical leader. I think that there are plenty of other members who would say that you make assumptions that are straightforward and reasonable. That doesn't mean that I trust you, it means that during a time when I was about as indecisive as a person can be, I looked to someone who was, may I remind you, assuming the leadership position with his own knowledge. (If I may be so bold to presume that.)

That's not to say that I had no thoughts of my own, because I was most definitely formulating my own thoughts and opinions during this time and I have been ever since the game started. There are times in my long post, where my thoughts are my own and I do speak from my own opinions. The entire post is my own opinions, I'm actually quite proud to say...

So enough of this nonsense, because Saucepan, you'll either believe my innocence or you won't, but if you want anything else, do not hesitate to ask.

I'm also not sure about the whole point of the recap? I see nothing to take from it except a long post that says what's gone on so far. Though it may be an attempt to help us and give a rundown, if someone wanted to know they could just look.

It was more to get myself organised than anything else, but yes, that is what I was attempting to do (give everyone else a rundown, interspersed with my thoughts).


Quote: Me
In spite of this, I do not not trust Saucepan, because he is too big an asset to the village to lose, but more importantly it just seems a logical step towards weeding out the wolves from the villagers by posting the things that are suspicious.

Quote: The Saucepan Man
You said that you do not trust me because I am an asset to the Village and because I seem to be trying to weed out the Wolves. An innocent mistake - or a Freudian slip?


And Saucepan, wouldn't it be:
If I had said I do not trust SPM, it would mean, that I don't trust you. However, if I said, I do not not trust you it would mean that I do, correct? (I know it's impertinent...) ;)

[arcticstorm]

After another quick glance at Boromir, I would say that we shoiuld take a really close view at Morm and Wilwa,
MOrm's early suspicion of Wilwa and then later vote for someone else may be a wolf trying to play innocent by suspecting another wolf, should she get lynched.

ALso I would like to point out that she pretty much did the same. But who could be their third wolf, definately not Sauce, it would be way too risky, but maybeAlcarillo or Azalia? Or who did she suspect that Morm did not? Boromir and Eomer. SO my suspicion list has been changed a little
1.Mormegil
2. Wilwa
3. Alcarillo
4. Azalia
5. Boromir
6. Eomer

[mormegil]

So artic if I read you correctly you are saying that I'm a wolf because I had early suspicions of Wilwa and then changed my mind? If you read my suspicion of Wilwa it's rather groundless and ludicrous. It was more to get something moving and I found a way twist what she said. In this post (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=417839&postcount=29) I quietly noted my suspicions beginning to rise for Perky and the behavior that followed only made my all the more suspicious. I still think Perky is guilty and don't find his answers to SpM interrogation satisfactory. I found this post by Perky a bit unsettling

...Alas, Another one bites the dust. I was afraid that Gil-Galad was not of the lupine, but as Alcarillo said

If you do not think Gil to be guilty then why vote for him? I realize the voting was close between you two but you never once mentioned that as a reason for you voting. However, if it were a reason and you were a true innocent I believe in this situation a true innocent should still vote for somebody they find guilty, even though it may mean they are lynched. Now if you were gifted then it could be a reason but I don't think you are gifted, I think you are a wolf.

Articstorm I really don't understand your logic here

But let us assume for a second that Perky is a wolf, then we could eliminate Morm, Wilwa, and Saucepan from suspicion probably. It would be too risky to vote for a fellow wolf if there is a chance he is innocent. So I will make a bold statement and say one of these three is probably a wolf, and therefore Perky is more than likely innocent.

If Perky were a fellow wolf then there's not a chance he's innocent. This seems like a convoluted statement meant to confuse and throw us off your tracks. That's right I think you are a wolf too. You appear to be attempting to shift attention off Perky on to others. And this is after you said that you suspected Perky and probably would have voted for him too had you been able to. Your story changed really quickly and you suspect me for changing my early, ridiculous suspicions of Wilwa to a more substantial Perky.

I'm beginning to see a nice little collusion between Articstorm and Perky. I'm not sure why anybody would suspect me at this point if there is any suspicion still on Perky. If Perky is innocent or Gil was a wolf then I could see it but as it stands and what we know it makes no sense.

On a side note, Abercrombie what are these 'driving lessons' you speak of? Will they help this struggling blacksmith in his trade? Is it some new craft that I could make and sell or witchcraft? I'm confused.

[The Perky Ent]

If you do not think Gil to be guilty then why vote for him? I realize the voting was close between you two but you never once mentioned that as a reason for you voting. However, if it were a reason and you were a true innocent I believe in this situation a true innocent should still vote for somebody they find guilty, even though it may mean they are lynched. Now if you were gifted then it could be a reason but I don't think you are gifted, I think you are a wolf.
Well, just like in this quote

Even if he turns out to be innocent, we, as Saucepan Man said, will eventually lynch him; and it's better to lynch an innocent today than later when it matters most for the village

that was partially my reasoning. He was suspicious to me, but I didn't have a strong feeling he was a wolf. I don't think anyone should have a strong feeling who a wolf is on the first day other than A) The seer who could have seen it, or B) reading the villager say 'Ahem! I'm a werewol- I mean, Steward. I'm voting + +BlahBlah (THIS ISN'T MY VOTE FOR TODAY. IT'S AN EXAMPLE) because he thinks I'm a wolf, and I don't want him trying to lynch me so the villagers can find out i'm a wolf'. I didn't have a gut feeling he was innocent, but I was, given his suspicious behavoir, willing to give it a chance. However, if it were a reason and you were a true innocent I believe in this situation a true innocent should still vote for somebody they find guilty, even though it may mean they are lynchedWell, if we all thought like you, this game wouldn't be interesting, now would it? I did find Gil-Galad to be guilty to some extent, and that is why I voted for him. I didn't say i swear i went eenie weenie miny mo ++Saucepanman


see you sundaythat also seemed suspicious too me. Need any more proof that I enough to go on to lynch Gil-Galad for day one? Mormegil, you seem to try to be throwing us off your tracks, at least from the way I'm reading it. There's nothing more enjoyable than everyone hypothetically call you a werewolf (That's sarcasm, if you didn't realize it) :rolleyes: In spite of this, I do not not trust Saucepan, because he is too big an asset to the village to lose, but more importantly it just seems a logical step towards weeding out the wolves from the villagers by posting the things that are suspicious. I don't know if it's necesarily logical, but I do think it is very dangerous to have a big asset to the group. I hate to say every man for himself, but the only ones that can work together are the wolves, and they're working among us. I will certainly not trust anyone unless they specifically say something like "I know I may seem mean at times, but it's the price you pay for me protecting you" which is the person saying they're the ranger (not that they'll last long if they publically declare it). If I were to analize this thread like a math problem, I'd say y'all were using guess-and-check, plugging in different people into problems, picking more for your equation until you find the right one. By this equation, I mean the whole "let's assuming one of the werewolfs voted for Gil. Now let's say it's perky...


Mormegil, I do not have a collusion between Arctic. I'm not sure where you get that from.

:smokin:

[Cailín]

Poor Shelob! She was indeed a logical choice for the wolves, cause she suspected few and was suspected by pretty much no one. Her suspects other than Gil-Galad were Mormegil (though it seemed she had changed her mind about him before the end of the day) and The Perky Ent, which does not tell us much except that I feel slightly more inclined to believe in the innocence of both.

Perky, it seems, is still high on many people’s suspect list – but I’m not sure about him. He seems too obvious to be a wolf. His vote for Gil did not seem very strange or suspicious to me yesterday – for I think he voiced suspicions of Gil before either one of them was clearly in the lead. Though I was sad to find out Gil was innocent, I don’t think we should regret our choice too much – undoubtedly we would have had to lynch him sooner or later ;) I'm aware The Perky Ent is still someone who will get votes today, and he might very well deserve them, but I don't think his death would tell us much, except how terribly wrong we all were. But I'm really not sure about that.

Arcticstorm is also someone I’m still keeping a close eye on. His reasoning is flawed indeed, and though being illogical is not necessarily a wolfish trait, I think he bears watching.

SpM, yesterday you said some things concerning Eomer and I’m slightly disappointed you did not repeat them today. I did see some sense in your accusations.

Eomer of the Rohirrim comes to mind. After I pointed out that Formendacil’s early vote met my criteria for distrust (but signified that I was disinclined to vote for him to-Day), he made an accusation of Formendacil, which he later backtracked on.

This was strange indeed. After getting little support for his Formendacil-is-evil campaign, he pretended to have changed his mind and admitted he ‘fell’ for Formendacil’s strategy (what – was Formendacil trying to get himself killed?) and then tried to start a bandwagon against those with empty posts, namely Wilwarin and Azaelia. I think he expected more people to vote for Azaelia, because there were some (including me) who indeed found their absense not helpful and even suspicious.

Eomer concerns me in particular since, even though I was antagonistic towards him, he avoided rising to the bait.

Another thing that worries me. He seems very much in control of himself and there’s a definite tactical thoughtfulness in each of his posts.

Because of this, I could also make a slight case against Boromir88, but just a slight one.

Well, I fully acknowledge that my reasoning may be awry. But how do you know it is?

I did not intend to say your reasoning was awry. I apologize, I sometimes say things that mean something entirely different than what I want them to. I really only pretend to speak English. I meant your reasoning seemed to be purely that – reasoning – without any knowledge others may not have. As you always tend to do. I don’t know if that’s just being very clever, or you’re truly what you seem to be.

There's still many of you we have not heard from today, so I'm still waiting for more things to go on. I'd like a reaction from Eomer to this, though.

[arcticstorm]

Basically my logic is that at least one wolf was probably in each main group of votes. With that in mind, there is a possibility taht Perky is not a wolf because it would be too risky early on for the wolvesto vote the first day for a fellow wolf and have a chance at getting him lynched.
So I looked at who voted for Perky, however if Perky is a wolf, I can pretty much eliminate either Mormegil or Wilwa from being wolves. My entire idea of Morm or Wilwa being wolves hinges on the other one being one and Perky not. SHould any of those things be disproved, both Morm and Wilwa would not be high on my suspicion list for a while. I still beleive that 1 wolf voted for Gil, either Alcarillo, Azalia, or Perky. And while any other arguement I may have hinges on Perky being innocent, I want to beleive him innocent for the time being. But should that be disproven today, I would have to look more closely at those who distanced themselves from him and those who joined late into the vote. I would also look at those who led the vote once it was clear he would die anyway. But I am getting ahead of myself here. Right now, I cannot see anyone connected to Perky, by being close to, or distancing himself from him. But should someone be able to prove me otherwise, that he is, indeed. a wolf, I would join the village in administering justice.

On day 1 it is usually a good strategy for wolves to distance themselves from other wolves, and then vote for someone else entirely. I do not know if this is what happened, but that is one of the things my reasoning is based on.

[wilwarin538]

This post won't be as long as I like it, but I will post a longer one this afternoon.

For now all I can say is that my suspect list has become very small. Yesterday, like most people I think, I was accusing people somewhat at random. I don't really suspect Formendacil, Boro and Eomer anymore. I was just trying to get my thoughts together.

But when I voted for Perky I really did, and still do suspect him. He talks to much and most of the time it doesn't say much. So he is my only suspect for now and I see myself voting for him later.

I'll be back later.

[Boromir88]

Arcticstorm is also someone I’m still keeping a close eye on. His reasoning is flawed indeed, and though being illogical is not necessarily a wolfish trait, I think he bears watching.~Cailin
He makes pretty good sense to me basically he said he thinks wolf voted for Gil. (Perky, Azaelia, and Alcarillo)

Then he says that if Perky's a wolf he can pretty much mark off Wilwarin and mormegil as innocent. If Perky's innocent, wilwarin or mormegil (maybe both) are wolves.

And right now he's unsure about Perky being a wolf but if someone can convince him he'll help in the wolf's rightful justice.

Hope that helps. And I must say I cannot be one to convince anyone of Perky's wolfishness, or not, I agree with Cailin and think that his actions just seem too suspicious. I think only Perky can show us his true self. Despite this, Perky is still one of my top suspects.

Right now I'm sort of bought on Abercrombie's reasoning for the no-vote (which she would have voted if there was no time left and that vote would have been for Perky. So if Perky's a wolf, I can pretty much write off Abercrombie). And on this explanation...
It was more to get myself organised than anything else, but yes, that is what I was attempting to do (give everyone else a rundown, interspersed with my thoughts).
Though I'm still not sold on the "attatchment" to Sauce and me, however much sense it seems to make.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Cailín, in particular, take note.


#32. SpM 'glares at wilwa and Azaelia'. Considers Formendacil most suspicious but says he is 'somewhat disinclined' to vote for him.

#33. Eomer basically agrees with SpM. Voices suspicion of wilwa, Azaelia and Formendacil. Why is this copying? If it's a good idea then it's a good idea.

#39. Eomer says, again, that Formendacil is worth watching.

#42. Eomer changes mind about Formendacil. Admits that it could make himself look bad.

#44. Eomer states again that he has changed his mind about Formendacil. Eomer discusses SpM's wolf criteria – but NOT in an antagonistic manner. Doesn't suspect SpM at all.

#45. SpM appears hurt that Eomer missed the modifications to SpM's wolf criteria. Don't be hurt, sir, I meant no harm or offence; it was accidental.
SpM glides past the Formendacil question. At least Eomer was honest enough to admit that he had changed his mind and that it looked suspicious. SpM actually skips over this, claiming that he saw all along what Formendacil was doing. Are you forgetting something SpM? You said that Formendacil was most suspicious. When did you change your mind, exactly?
SpM gets angry with Eomer. Says I'm backtracking. Wants reasons. Conveniently ignores the reasons I already supplied (that I changed my mind after consideration of strategy) and conveniently ignores his own backtracking. Clever.

#47. Eomer apologises for earlier miss of SpM's modifications. Eomer comments on the similarities between his and SpM's thoughts.

#67. SpM says that Eomer is suspicious because he avoided 'rising to the bait' when SpM was being antagonistic towards Eomer. Does anyone think he would have quelled suspcion of me had I risen to the bait and got angry? No matter what I do or say SpM is picking on me. He sees a target in me and he's going for it, convinced of his own skewed logic, and convinced that he can charm everyone in the village with his pretty prose.

#67. During a rant about misinterpretation, SpM totally misinterprets the words of another villager, Abercrombie of Rohan, when she says 'I do not NOT trust SpM'. Double negative, don't you know? He then has the audacity to suggest that this is a Freudian slip. No, it's just a lack of understanding from you, sir. AoR seems to have casually sidestepped this issue. I won't. That's SpM twisting and shouting as only he can.


(I do not think I have missed anything which adds to these points.)


Because of his prominent position in the village debate, The Saucepan Man is trying to take control by subtle methods of manipulation. Perky Ent alluded to this at the start of Day One and I believe he spoke wisely.

My vote for Azaelia yesterday was due to a lack of (even slightly decent) options. Today, though, I have no doubt in my mind. The Saucepan Man is as treacherous, as cunning and as wolvish as the day is long. Off with his furry head, I say.

++THE SAUCEPAN MAN

I would also ask you all to keep this in mind: I have taken part in numerous treasure hunts and for the most part my ineptitude in them has been terribly evident. By picking on me, The Saucepan Man is attacking an easy target. Not so Eomer of the Rohirrim. The fame of The Saucepan Man is second to none in this accursed land, and his iron-grip is ever strong.

The Saucepan Man will go all out for me after this but do not be intimidated by him. If Eomer were a wolf, he would not be insistent on a quarrel with The Saucepan Man; to act in such a way would be madness. I am foolish and awful at staying out of trouble, but I don't think I'm mad yet. The Saucepan Man is a wolf.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I'd appreciate hearing why you tink I'm the second wolf, Arctic. You didn't really explain yourself.

As I said before, I voted for Gil because I really didn't see any other options, and his posts were decidedly unhelpful. He posted no real evidence to support his claims over and over again. It was confusing and, as others have said, supposing he continued to act that way, we would have lynched him later anyhow.

So people make mistakes. My first post was a mistake. Gil's method of playing was a mistake. Voting for Gil was also a mistake. That doesn't make me a wolf. And it didn't make him a wolf, either.

[mormegil]

Eomer those are interesting thoughts on SpM. I'm not sure whether or not I believe that he is a wolf though. I will make it very clear that, most likely, I will vote for either Perky or Articstorm and hope that I get some support. Notice I said that I most likely will, thus meaning I may change my mind but not likely.

The death of Perky will tell us a couple of things. If he is a wolf then, as Articstorm said, we can assume that Spm, Wilwa and I are innocent. But what has troubled me is that Artic is insistent on assuming that Perky is innocent. Why should we assume that

a. Anybody is innocent and
b. That the person who got the second most votes is innocent

That's why it seems to me that Artic and Perky are in cahoots. Articstorm is all but refusing to accept the fact that Perky may be guilty, he seems to be trying desperatley to cast favorable light on him. The only time I do that is when I'm convinced of somebody's innocence ie when I did with Shelob, and she was innocent.

Eomer and others, in regards to SpM I'm sure that the seer has already dreampt of him or will do so soon. So I think it to be our goal to identify one or two of the wolves and if SpM is a wolf then the seer will find that one out for us.

[The Perky Ent]

So I'm still on the lists, eh? That's what I get for opening my mouth. Quiet ones die and loud ones die. Takes a werewolf to stay just enough under the radar. I think there's a talkative wolf out there, a standard wolf who posts every so often and mildly, and a quiet werewolf who is staying deep under the radar. If he is a wolf then, as Articstorm said, we can assume that Spm, Wilwa and I are innocent.Hmm....so when I die, SpM, Wilwa, and Mormegil are no longer suspects? Well, according to your plan I'm dead by then, but these people happen to be people i've recently come to suspect, and this could be a werewolf (Possibly Mormegil) trying to throw people off the tracks of his friends.

Once again, I'm advising against using formula's you can't check without around three days and a seer. I wouldn't do something where it's "If we lynch perky, these people are automatically innocent". At this point, I'm really not sure who to suspect, and since my last list was so suspicious, I'll have to think even more on it. At the end of the day, I'm going with my gut, and that's how I advise you to vote. To you really think the person you're voting for is innocent?

Yeah, I know. This was a bad post, but I'm freezing and haven't had enough time to gather my information!

:smokin:

[The Saucepan Man]

Based off voting from yesterday, I think one wolf voted for Gil-Galad.It seems to me that Gil is the last innocent that the Wolves would have wanted lynched, if you take my meaning. I suspect that a Wolf would only have voted for Gil if s/he needed to do so to save his/her own skin or that of a fellow Wolf. Which rather puts Perky in the frame if a Wolf did vote for Gil.

I think it fairly likely that the Wolves avoided voting for the same person, unless they were forced to do so. And, if one of the Wolves did not vote, I would suspect arcticstorm more than Abercrombie who did, at least, make some useful contributions yester-Day.

You just seem to have too much control.

I looked to someone who was, may I remind you, assuming the leadership position with his own knowledge.

However, at this point I seem to be thinking along his same lines and as long as his suspects turn out to be wolves and not innocents then I have faith in him.I don’t like all these suggestions that I am trying to assume leadership. I am attempting to do no such thing, and will not do so until and unless I become convinced of the identity of a Wolf. All I have at the moment are thoughts and suspicions and, as far as I am concerned, I am merely setting these out for the benefit of the village. It is up to people whether they listen to me or not. Certainly, Boro’s “condition” for trusting me seems to be a rather hard one to discharge. I get the feeling that I am being set up for a lynching in the event that any of my suspicions prove to be mistaken, which is almost inevitable in this game. Indeed, Eomer, in his attack on me (of which more later) referes to the “convincing” nature of my posts.

However, if I said, I do not not trust you it would mean that I do, correct?Bah! Tricksy double negatives. (And yes, Eomer, I genuinely did not spot the double negative.)

I'm beginning to see a nice little collusion between Articstorm and Perky.I agree. Arcticstorm is one of the few people who has had anything positive to say about Perky to-Day. I also find his musings rather confusing, as if they were designed to throw us off the trail. He is basically saying that, if X is a Wolf, then Y is innocent, but if X is innocent, then Z is a Wolf. Who better to know of the guilt and innocence of X, Y and Z than a Wolf, and what better way to point us in the wrong direction when one of them is killed or lynched than this kind of reasoning?

SpM, yesterday you said some things concerning Eomer and I’m slightly disappointed you did not repeat them today. I did see some sense in your accusations.Well I still suspect Eomer, Cailin, but more recently I had been focussing on other strong suspects. It seems rather alarming to me that, in these circumstances, Eomer has chosen to come out with such a blistering attack on me to-Day and that he has seen fit to vote for me without awaiting a response.

No matter what I do or say SpM is picking on me. He sees a target in me and he's going for it …My, you seem to be very oversensitive, Eomer. I really don’t think that outlining my suspicions of you (along with a number of others) and then focussing on others who have seemed more suspicious can be described as “picking on you” or “going for you”. Cailin noted that you had somewhat dropped off my list of top suspects.

Your case against me seems to be mostly based on the “Formendacil situation” yester-Day. In this regard, I fail to see what has changed from yeter-Day, when you seemed happy not to rise to the bait of my suspicions (except, of course, that you not rising to the bait formed part of my suspicions against you).

SpM glides past the Formendacil question. At least Eomer was honest enough to admit that he had changed his mind and that it looked suspicious. SpM actually skips over this, claiming that he saw all along what Formendacil was doing. Are you forgetting something SpM? You said that Formendacil was most suspicious. When did you change your mind, exactly?I have not changed my mind about Formendacil at all. And I have not backtracked in the least. I said that Formendacil was “most” (meaning “very”) suspicious on the basis of my stated criteria. But I did not feel inclined to vote for him until I heard further from him. Since he was not around, there seemed little point in pressing the case against him any further at that stage. I did feel that his early random vote was possibly very risky behaviour for a Wolf, but I have most certainly not dismissed him from my suspicions. And I never claimed to have interpreted his vote as a tactic. I merely agreed that it had stirred up the pot (which it had).

Your blistering attack and quick vote, pretty much out of the blue, does give me great cause for concern, Eomer. But there is some sense, I suppose, in what you say about a Wolf being unlikely to take me on directly. All I can say is that, if you are not a Wolf, then you are barking up the wrong tree.

I would add that I still have my suspicions of Azaelia and wilwa. They seem to to me to be doing very little to help locate these Wolves. I would rather see contributions of the quality of Eomer’s accusations against me (even though he is wrong) than occasional contributions which tell us next to nothing.

[wilwarin538]

Hmm....so when I die, SpM, Wilwa, and Mormegil are no longer suspects?

Well that just made me positive that you are guilty. Because I consider that him admiting he is a wolf, since Morm, SpM and I are only cleared if he is a wolf, not just if he dies.

The way that was worded makes it sound like he is guilty so I'm going to vote now.

++Perky

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

On a side note, Abercrombie what are these 'driving lessons' you speak of? Will they help this struggling blacksmith in his trade? Is it some new craft that I could make and sell or witchcraft? I'm confused.

Chariot driving, Morm, it may come in useful someday, though at my young age, I can't really see a point right now...

Perky, it seems, is still high on many people’s suspect list – but I’m not sure about him. He seems too obvious to be a wolf.

I'm in the same boat Cailin, except instead of Perky, it's articstorm. I mean really, what wolf wouldn't vote on the first day? It is bound to cause mass suspicion and hysteria, and probably a bandwagon vote against the offending player (in this case, articstorm.) He also posts with very odd reasoning that's already been mentioned by Morm and Cailin and Boro, so won't repeat it. But, this reasoning seems more helpful (or at least, tries to be more helpful) to me than Perky Ent's.

But, on the other side of things (*shakes fist at John Stuart Mill*), if we lynch articstorm today, and he's innocent, it will point to Mormegil especially, though Cailin to a lesser extent as well. I think this will prove helpful in finding an alliance of wolves. Because, look at who Mormegil has aligned himself with, SPM, Wilwa, and somewhat to Cailin. Now, I highly doubt that both SPM and Wilwa are wolves, because it would practically be suicide for three wolves to vote for the same person on the first day (assuming Morm is a wolf.) But, I would warrant that at least one of the three is a wolf.

Oh poot, I'm back to being useless again. :rolleyes: Now I'm stuck, because both of the above are hypothetical situations and I'm trying to provide factual evidence for which to help out the village. Well, if nothing else, this will prove how thoroughly confused I am...

crossposted with SPM and Wilwa.

[Boromir88]

Quiet ones die and loud ones die. Takes a werewolf to stay just enough under the radar. I think there's a talkative wolf out there, a standard wolf who posts every so often and mildly, and a quiet werewolf who is staying deep under the radar.~Perky Ent.
I agree with that, which makes either Perky, me, or Sauce, Eomer, or Abercrombie (atleast these are who I think the "louder" mouthed-villagers are) a wolf. I can say I'm a simple villager spewing my ideas, and for right now, despite Eomer's argument against Sauce, I'm not going to send him to the gallows yet
because...
I am merely setting these out for the benefit of the village. It is up to people whether they listen to me or not.~Sauce
Sounds often like the logic I use...have a brain! (No pun intended...well...of course there was).
Boro’s “condition” for trusting me seems to be a rather hard one to discharge. I get the feeling that I am being set up for a lynching in the event that any of my suspicions prove to be mistaken, which is almost inevitable in this game.~Sauce
Indeed I am, what lovely villagers we all are. Of course I do realize we all are bound to make a slip-up once or twice, you and I should both know that, I'm talking about consistantly making the wrong choices. Steering everyone in the wrong direction. Whether you're innocent or not, we can't have someone influencing the decision to lynch villagers instead of wolves, and if I see a trend of innocent's being lynched and not wolves, my immediate suspicioun goes to the loudmouth everyone seems to be listening to. It's the leaders fault!

Right now I see no reason to scream lynch Abercrombie! Lynch Eomer! So that leaves' Perky as our loud-mouth wolf.

As for a medium guy (to me this includes) Morm, Cailin, and arcticstorm.
I see no reason to say Morm and Cailin are wolves yet. arcticstorm I'm unsure about, and most likely will not vote for him but always watch him. I follow his reasoning and ideas, but I again find myself agreeing with Perky (who actually I suspect most right now...kind of ironic), in atleast I MYSELF can't write anyone off as an innocent, no matter how the voting has went. Atleast early on in the game. I wouldn't put it past wolves to try some sort of tricksy strategy.

For our quiet ones...Alcarillo, wilwarin, Azaelia, Formendacil and Marcolie (who's disappeared...I hope that's everyone). Wilwarin and Azaelia right now I'm ok with. Marcolie's, Alcarillo's, and Formendacil's disappearances get me worried. Right now more likely Alcarillo or Form.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Poor Shelob. Many a times I've sat with her laughing about books innabilities to number correctly. We must find the wolves and avenge these innocents slain.


Morm seems to be very strong against Perky but not enough to become a commoner on suspect lists. Trying to stay just active enough to hide the fangs? Also, the one most connected to Shelob yesterday and beleiving she was innocent.

Perky Ent coming up often on lists of suspects, voted for Gil and I feel most likely one wolf did so. Voiced how he was suspicious of many-possibly trying to stir the pot, possibly hiding, and Artic is strongly for his innocence though. I doubt both are wolves because that'd be too open. For me he looks suspicious but almost too suspicious because I doubt a wolf would be so open about it. Howeverm he does manage to talk alot without saying too much.

Formendacil voiced suspicions of two yet randomly voted for another, I'd still like reasoning on this. In general I'd like to hear more from Form before making any decisions.

Wilwarin not very loud, nor very quiet, changed vote from suspisions yesterday, however from reading style others are higher on list for me.

Saucepan Man- loud, is either leading our village against the wolves or pretending too. For now I give him the benefit of the doubt because he'd be too important too lose.

Eomer most noticably is his strong offense against SpM, and anything that strong of statement (especially only on one) is suspicious, but again, I'm forcing myself to say would a wolf be so outright.

Arcticstorm I can't really understand artic's explinations that he has for suspicions. Also, listing suspsions without explaining why. Suspicious to me.

Alcarillo voted for Gil and was against him the whole time. Not voiced much else. Another one I'd like to see talk agian before making a decision on.

Abercrombie repeating what others said alot. This I think is helpful, but also could be a way to hide. I'm holding nothing against her for the lack of vote, but would like to see more personal thoughts.

Marcolie I don't know how others view me, and since I know myself to be innocent I don't know what to say about myself.

Azaelia been quiet, voted for someone other than her suspicions pointed to. I'd like to hear more, but she's already suspicious in my mind, not as much as others though, but she's managed to talk little yet not nothing.

Boromir like some others has very useful breakdown summeries of votes. Someone active but not overly so. A good posistion for a wolf to be, but judging by posts not one with suspision now.

Cailin suspected many right away yet voted for another one. However, judging from her post today I can't help but find myself agreeing with her.


All suspisions are comparative since I am suspicious of someone for simply living on this island. That comes when wolves manage to invade.

[Alcarillo]

I'm here! And I say "Lynch somebody whose death would give us the most information". Even if that person turns out to be an innocent, we then know more about what other villagers are likely to be. According to this, we should lynch Perky, right?

And out of the group-that-voted-for-Gil-minus-Shelob he seems to be the most suspicious. It is true that I am part of that group, but lynching me solely on a single vote doesn't sound like a good idea. Perky has been suspicious since yesterDAY, and there are reasons for his lynching besides his voting.

Just my thoughts.

[The Perky Ent]

He is basically saying that, if X is a Wolf, then Y is innocent, but if X is innocent, then Z is a Wolf. Who better to know of the guilt and innocence of X, Y and Z than a Wolf, and what better way to point us in the wrong direction when one of them is killed or lynched than this kind of reasoning?

Um...actually I wasn't saying that. That's the logic other people are using to try and figure out the wolves. I'm not sure what to think of Wilwarin, although your vote doesn't really suprise me. I guess I'm currently looking at moremegil, Wilwarin, and Azaelia. My gut tells me I should look into them more, as I haven't really spent much on who they are.

I'm sorry y'all find me suspicious, as I'm just a lonely wonderer who travels around and smokes his pipe.

:smokin:

[Márcolië Lamen]

Because of our gathering here, I feel it'd be better to double post to explain that I was out learning about training dogs to carry my books for me this morning and unable to attend our meeting for that reason. I wish I'd managed to be here earlier though.

In terms of lynching Perky to gain information, I really have to wonder if thats what the wolves were hoping we would do. He keeps coming up as too out there for me to be a wolf, and one that wolves would vote for but not connect themselves too because of this suspision. Then again, anyone could be trying to bluff.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Azaelia been quiet, voted for someone other than her suspicions pointed to. I'd like to hear more, but she's already suspicious in my mind, not as much as others though, but she's managed to talk little yet not nothing.


I knew I should have clarified. I did not say I was suspicious of Sauce at that time, just that I didn't like his list.

Besides, on the first DAY there wasn't much to go on for suspicions.

And I'm still looking for an explanation from Arcticstorm on why he suspects me. He never clarified.

And Perky, what am I doing to give you a "gut feeling" that I am worthy of suspicion?

If you don't explain your suspicions, there is no way for me to defend myself.

[The Saucepan Man]

Um...actually I wasn't saying that. That's the logic other people are using to try and figure out the wolves. Um ... I never said that you were. I was referring to arcticstorm. :rolleyes:

It seems to me that there are a lot of votes gathering for Perky, and I fully realise that I am one of those who has voiced suspicions of him. But I would remind everyone of the benefits of spreading our votes out, at least in the early stages of voting. Not to the extent that the voting becomes meaningless. But having 6 or 7 who are in danger throughout is helpful, as at least one of those 6 or 7 is likely to be a Wolf. And I like to make these Wolves sweat during voting. :D

My own suspicions are currently directed mainly towards Perky and arcticstorm, and Eomer less so. But I will need to review everything that has been said and do some major thinking before I cast my vote. Depending on what I come up with and how the voting goes, I may end up voting for someone else entirely.

[Cailín]

A lot to catch up on, while I'm actually in a terrible rush, so forgive me for skipping a few points.

In terms of lynching Perky to gain information, I really have to wonder if thats what the wolves were hoping we would do.

This is what Marcolie said, but others before have said that lynching Perky will give us the most information. Pray, tell me, what do we know if Perky is found innocent? Only that we were all very wrong on Day 1. Should Perky prove to be indeed a wolf, I think the other wolves already gave up on him last night when he was second to be lynched. There's no one really sticking up for him now (except this might be seen as sticking up for) so I'm not really sure what this would tell us. I'm not saying lynching Perky is the worst idea - for all I know, he could be a wolf - but there is no concrete evidence against him, except that he talks a lot of nonsense since the start of Day 1.

I agree with that, which makes either Perky, me, or Sauce, Eomer, or Abercrombie (atleast these are who I think the "louder" mouthed-villagers are) a wolf.

I'm not sure if we can divide the wolves into categories... maybe there's three quiet wolves, maybe three loud ones... Anyone could be a wolf and practically everyone is behaving like they've always been behaving. I'm pretty sure there's at least one wolf in the people you mention here, though.

Well I still suspect Eomer, Cailin, but more recently I had been focussing on other strong suspects. It seems rather alarming to me that, in these circumstances, Eomer has chosen to come out with such a blistering attack on me to-Day and that he has seen fit to vote for me without awaiting a response.

Eomer's accusations seemed far too fierce to me and I'm not sure what he's trying to achieve here. I thought about it for some time and I could only come up with one thing. There's no way he would have made himself any less suspicious by saying nothing to my accusations and there's no way he could have deflected them otherwise. And he very well knows that.

He states he would never pick a fight with SpM if he's a wolf. Ridiculous. He would never have attacked SpM were he an innocent. He cannot know whether SpM is a wolf or not (except if he's the Seer of course, which I doubt) and an innocent would never attack another helpful villager so outright if he knew he had to pay for his possible mistake the next day - it's too dangerous to the village to lose two innocents in a row. It is the move of someone desperate - and who would be desperate because of a minor accusation on Day 2 when we're already almost certain who's going to the gallows today?

If SpM is lynched and proven innocent, Eomer dies tomorrow. He knew this when he voted. And yet he did. Is he really thát convinced of SpM's guilt to risk the whole village? Or is he a wolf trying to take two players instead of one down with him?

Make your choice, my beloved fellow villagers. Even though I think neither one of them will be hanged today.

[mormegil]

He is basically saying that, if X is a Wolf, then Y is innocent, but if X is innocent, then Z is a Wolf. Who better to know of the guilt and innocence of X, Y and Z than a Wolf, and what better way to point us in the wrong direction when one of them is killed or lynched than this kind of reasoning?

Um...actually I wasn't saying that. That's the logic other people are using to try and figure out the wolves.


Actually according to how I understand it he was refering to Articstorm's logic.


I'm here! And I say "Lynch somebody whose death would give us the most information". Even if that person turns out to be an innocent, we then know more about what other villagers are likely to be. According to this, we should lynch Perky, right?

I agree in that today unless somebody better appears on the radar we ought to lynch the person who gives us the most information. I disagree that it would be Perky though. I would rather see Articstorm. If he's guilty I think we can assume the Perky is likely to be guilty too based on the colusion I noted earlier. If Perky is guilty then we can almost assume that Wilwa, SpM and I are innocent as well due to our first day voting of Perky. If Articstorm is innocent then I will be closely examined and I invite such examination of myself because I truly have nothing to hide. I am admitting that there is a chance that both Articstorm and I are innocent though I believe Articstorm is guilty.

My eyebrow has recently been raised to Márcolië Lamen but not sufficient to go after her today. But I will make it known that I will look more deeply at her in the future. I didn't yesterday because of Formendacil's random vote, it didn't seem just to go too strongly after her because of that.

[The Saucepan Man]

Another quick thought on Eomer.

Generally, it seems to me to be a good Wolfish strategy to hang around 'til near the end of voting in case a vote is needed to save a fellow Wolf or condemn a dangerous innocent. But it makes sense in this game to vote first, given the strategic value of a first vote in the event of a tie. I had thought Eomer's early vote to be too bold and risky a move for a Werewolf. But, if the voting is tight (as I hope and expect it will be) and I receive another vote or two, he has managed to put me in quite a dangerous position.

This, taken together with Cailin's thoughts, makes it quite possible that Eomer has given himself the role of sacrificial Wolf and is looking to take as many innocent villagers as possible out with him.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So Cailín thinks it would be ridiculous for Innocent-Eomer to attack The Saucepan Man? Well, quite frankly m'dear, I think you're being ridiculous when you say that. Because:

1) Eomer is an Innocent Villager.

2) Eomer sees Saucepan Man twisting and attacking pretty much everything I say.

3) Eomer thinks this is wolvish; innocents wouldn't be acting in such a way.

4) Eomer thinks he can help the village catch a wolf.

5) Eomer votes for Saucepan Man.

Just what on Middle-earth is so 'ridiculous' about that? Please let me know, and I'll try to act in a less moronic fashion.

And reasoning for the early vote? I couldn't see when I could get back to the village square to talk with you people. In fact, I'm neglecting some important work right now, so you'll have to excuse me.

Good night. And try substituting 'fierce' with 'passionate' when you talk about me. ;) Thank you.

[arcticstorm]

He is basically saying that, if X is a Wolf, then Y is innocent, but if X is innocent, then Z is a Wolf. Who better to know of the guilt and innocence of X, Y and Z than a Wolf, and what better way to point us in the wrong direction when one of them is killed or lynched than this kind of reasoning?
first of all, let me update your post a little I am saying if X is awolf then y is quite possibly innocent, but if x is innocent than z is quite possibly a wolf. There are no guarantees to this, but I just tend to try to follow a more deductive approach using the inductions that others have already stated.
With Azalia I'd appreciate hearing why you tink I'm the second wolf, Arctic. You didn't really explain yourself. I have you on the list following Boromir's inductions about a wolf probably voting for Gil.

I am less supicious of Perky right now because he seems too suspicious, like Formendacil yesterday. Right now everyone is suspecting him and he needs an advocate, even if it is not that good of one. Even if he is guilty, what the village needs is to look at everyone through all lenses, and not just focus on a few suspicious behaviors and only focus on those. My induction is that the wolves will be playing on this and are going to allow him to live as long as we do, because the village is supecting him. I am not saying he is innocent, but I am saying at least one, if not two of the wolves, are going to be among the least supicious in the village. They will not beleading the attack on perky, but they will join in, and not near the end either, somewhere in the middle if that is where it ends up.

[Cailín]

So Cailín thinks it would be ridiculous for Innocent-Eomer to attack The Saucepan Man? Well, quite frankly m'dear, I think you're being ridiculous when you say that.

He states he would never pick a fight with SpM if he's a wolf. Ridiculous.

Read again, sweetie. I say it's ridiculous you would never pick a fight with SpM if you were a wolf.

If Eomer were a wolf, he would not be insistent on a quarrel with The Saucepan Man; to act in such a way would be madness

As you more or less say here. Actually, I think you'd be more than mad enough to do that. As a matter of fact, I think you already did. But hey, we each have our own thoughts and toDay, I am fighting a losing battle I believe.

Good night. And try substituting 'fierce' with 'passionate' when you talk about me. ;) Thank you.

Fine. I'm here to please. ;)

---

Articstorm, I'm sorry, but all these xs and zs and everything are far too confusing. Just tell me who you think is guilty?

[mormegil]

The interplay between Eomer and SaucepanMan is indeed becoming very interesting. And SpM's theory of Eomer being a sacrificial wolf is intriguing though possibly misguided. I hope that all we have here is two misguided passionate people who find guilt in each other. Nothing has changed and to help voting come along I will vote

++ARTICSTORM

and would suggest that we keep the voting close between about 4 people or so. 7 seems too many to add any real fear to the wolves.

I would like to give a piece of advice for our dear seer: Please dream wisely. I know that you are but I believe that at times we get so caught up in certain people, ie Eomer and SpM currently that we overlook others and those others end up being the wolves. So dream of somebody that may be somewhere in the middle of you suspect list. You don't need to heed my advice but consider it.

[Alcarillo]

Time for me to vote.

++The Perky Ent

A generally suspicious fellow, he's been on suspect lists for the past two days. If the voting goes mostly between him and Arctic, we could try to figure out who's trying to save whom by the last votes.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Well, well, well, we come to it at last, the great battle of our time.

++ ARTICSTORM

I feel (eeny meenie miny moe told me, between Articstorm and Perky ent) that Articstorm is a wolf. Mostly I only went along with this because of the amount of information that we shall have if he is innocent. Of course, I hope that if we lynch him he proves to be furry, but I also think we can learn from his death.

[Boromir88]

I'm not sure what to make of this opposition against arcticstorm. Either he's fooled me and he's fair in language, but since I find myself agreeing with him right now, I can't vote for him. His theories make sense, and as he's said...
first of all, let me update your post a little I am saying if X is awolf then y is quite possibly innocent, but if x is innocent than z is quite possibly a wolf. There are no guarantees to this, but I just tend to try to follow a more deductive approach using the inductions that others have already stated.
I am less supicious of Perky right now because he seems too suspicious, like Formendacil yesterday.~arcticstorm
I also agree with this.
The interplay between Eomer and SaucepanMan is indeed becoming very interesting. And SpM's theory of Eomer being a sacrificial wolf is intriguing though possibly misguided. I hope that all we have here is two misguided passionate people who find guilt in each other.~mormegil
Or two wolves playing a game with eachother, which is quite scary. Though with Eomer's words and early vote I doubt it as a strategy a wolf would use, but nevertheless something that I wouldn't doubt Sauce and Eomer trying to pull off.

Marcolie's cooled my suspicions, but I said earlier I wanted to hear more from Alcarillo. Nothing's changed and this particularly gets me worried...
I'm here! And I say "Lynch somebody whose death would give us the most information".
I would never propose this strategy, let's lynch someone who we get info out of, even if he's innocent. It may be Alcarillo's strategy, as an innocent, and possibily looking down the road, but this is something I do not concur with or I would not propose unless that person is becoming a burden on the village. Which I do not see Perky as being yet.

I won't vote for Alcarillo today, because one it will throw yet another name out there, and two I don't think it will go anywhere, but I want to hear an answer tomorrow. (If I'm alive).

I'm going to follow Eomer and say...

++Saucepan

He worries me.

[Cailín]

So, currently tis

Saucepan - 2
Arcticstorm - 2
Perky - 2

Boromir88 - this is the second time you vote the same way as Eomer (though not literally). Are you sure you wish to be in league with a suicidal wolf?

[Boromir88]

Boromir88 - this is the second time you vote the same way as Eomer (though not literally). Are you sure you wish to be in league with a suicidal wolf?
Being a simple villager I don't know who's a wolf and who isn't. So, of course I'm always worried about who I'm siding with and who I'm suspecting, at any moment I may be wrong. As I said earlier I have no reason to suspect Eomer as of yet, could be good, or could mean my own death, only time will tell.

Well, I must be off, supper time then I won't be back.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Summary of votes so far

SpM (3)
Boromir
Eomer
Zali

Artic (3)
Abercrombie
mormegil
Perky

Perky (5)
Alcarillo
wilwarin
Cailin
SpM
artic

Azaelia (1)
Marcolie

I'm debating throughing another name into the mix to spread out votes, but am not sure whether or not to yet.


edit: updating votes as people vote

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Decisions, decisions. I think I will vote now. I believe that we should keep the number of suspects down as a way to make wolves nervous. So I'll vote for someone already on the table. The person on the voting list that I am least suspicious of is Perky, and it seems like people want to lynch him because of the information it would bring, and not because they are sure he is a wolf. It's just convenient that his death, innocent or not, would tell us something.

Sauce (due to his strong assertions and passionate argument against Eomer) and Arctic (because I think his reasoning is flawed) both send up red flags, but I think Saucy's red flag is a little redder.

++Sauce

because of that paradoxial part of WW: defend yourself and you look suspicious, but you can't just let yourself be lynched, either. It's the way he's going about defending himself that looks suspicious to me. I'm very sorry that I can't give any better explanation than that...it just sends up red flags to me.

edit: cross-posted with Marcolie and Boromir (that is, they posted while I was still working on my reply)

[Cailín]

:confused:

This is strange. How did SpM get blamed for my attacks on Eomer? I don't believe, Azaelia, you have read everything quite thoroughly, either that or you're suddenly high on my suspect list. I can imagine why the wolves would find SpM a bigger threat than me, for I fully accept he is a generally more intelligent player than I am, but I cannot believe a villager would vote for him because of what I suggested today.

Be back soon with more...

[The Saucepan Man]

Interesting. As matters stand I get lynched, even if Perky or arcticstorm get another vote each.

I wondered, when I talked about Eomer putting me in a dangerous position by giving me the first vote of the Day, whether anyone would take the bait. It seems that the bait has been well and truly taken.

I rather tend to the idea that Eomer is not a Wolf. He just seems too guileless to me at the moment. If he was a Wolf, I would expect him to play much more intelligently, rather than putting himself well and truly in the firing line as and when I am proven innocent. And he just doesn't seem the type to volunteer for the sacrificial role out of a group of three Wolves.

But it is clear to me that either Boromir88 or Azaelia is a Wolf, for their subsequent votes for me. What an opportunity for the Wolves to rid themselves of one thorn in their side (me) while implicating another (Eomer). It's unlikely that both are, as that would be risky, but it's a possibility.

At the moment, my inclination is that, out of the two, Boro is the more likely Wolf. his vote for me came out of nowhere - he previously suggested that he tended to trust me - whereas Azaelia has at least expressed doubts about me previously.

I will save my vote, as I may have to save myself. And believe me that, although I am innocent, I will not hesitate to do so, as I believe that the village is better off with me alive. If I don't have to save myself, I will probably vote for Boromir88.

[The Saucepan Man]

Double posting because I had not read Azaelia's post properly.

Sauce (due to his strong assertions and passionate argument against Eomer)Could you point me out where I have made any strong assertions or passionate arguments against Eomer to-Day, please? I might have had justification to do so, but I don't believe that I have sought strongly to argue his neck into the noose.

Azaelia and Boro now look equally suspicious to me.

[arcticstorm]

I am inclined to beleive that Saucepan is innocent, so I will try to seve him from the noose if I can, unless it condemns me.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Seeing as everyone seems to be saving votes to keep people alive, I'll make the vote that I had been debating over making for a while now and vote for
++Azaelia
suspicious especially after her voting for SpM, and another place to spread votes out too. She was much more suspicious than the three voted for so far to me at least anyways.

[The Perky Ent]

++Arcticstorm



:smokin:

[Cailín]

I will have to leave now and despite the fact that I still have doubts whether he's just a blundering innocent or not, I will vote for

++The Perky Ent

Hoping that articstorm at least will do the same. I just don't want SpM to die because of my hotheaded accusations.

If I do not survive the Night, I think you all know who to go after tomorrow (or am I creating a set-up here?). ;)

[arcticstorm]

I do not want innocent blood on my hands, but I will trust you and in order to save Sauce,
++Perky Ent

[The Saucepan Man]

If I die to-Day or to-Night, I shall outline my pick for the three Wolves:

Perky - for the reasons outlined by many previously, most particularly his flaky vote for Gil and his inadequate explanation of it. And for his vote for arcticstorm. It would have been too obvious and too risky to vote for me. It just seems the most sensible Wolf vote at this stage in proceedings.

Azaelia - for posting relatively frequently but saying very little. And for voting for me, on very shaky grounds, and thereby trying to eliminate both me and Eomer from the game.

Marcolie - for her vote for Azaelia - a vote for a fellow Wolf at a stage where it is very unlikely that she will be lynched.

I might well be wrong. But I am convinced that either Boro or Azaelia is a Wolf, and its possible that both are. And I think that Perky may well be a Wolf, although I am by no means certain.

On that basis, given the current state of voting, I have no option but to vote for:

++The Perky Ent

I strongly believe that the village is better off with me alive, unless one of the other options is a gifted. If Perky dies and turns out to be gifted, then I will no doubt have a lot of explaining to do to-Morrow. But to-Morrow is another Day, and I somehow doubt that he's gifted.

Edit: Cross-posted with arcticstorm and Cailin. I might have voted differently had I seen their votes before voting myself. Oh well, what's done is done.

[The Perky Ent]

(or am I creating a set-up here?).

Um...yes! I personally don't think Saucepan to be a werewolf. I just went with my stomache (which could be going haywire, since I have a cold) and it told me that I shouldn't trust Arctic, so that's why I voted what I did. I do hope you don't just bandwagon me to save Saucepan.

:smokin:

[Cailín]

I did not, Perky. I do distrust you and I know many others do. It would really clear things up to know whether you are innocent or not.

Now I really must leave.

[The Perky Ent]

If Perky dies and turns out to be gifted, then I will no doubt have a lot of explaining to do to-Morrow.

Indeed you will! Have fun protecting yourself at night with me dead ;)


Looks like this is my number. If I die, Good game everyone! Glad to take part in your little experiment :rolleyes:

:smokin:

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, it looks like Perky's going to-Day. Sorry, Perky, you wouldn't have been my first pick for the gallows to-Day, but there we go.

I doubt that I shall die to-Night, what with all the suspicion around me. If I do, it could be an attempt to set up one of those that I have strongly accused to-Day. But I tend to think that I am getting close to the Wolves, particularly as far as Azaelia and Boro are concerned. At least one of those two is a Wolf. I am sure of it.

Edit: Cross-posted with Perky. Well well, it looks like he's the Ranger. Shame he's not the Hunter. Oh well, looks like I shall be busy tomorrow. :rolleyes:

Doesn't change my other suspects though.

[The Perky Ent]

Oh well, looks like I shall be busy tomorrow.

I wouldn't have it any other way.

I doubt that I shall die to-Night

I'm not stopping you :p SaucepanMan, you made me almost want to get lynched. You were just too confusing. Tomorrow would be a good time to go into lawyer mode. An eye for an eye http://forum.barrowdowns.com/ubb/icons/icon8.gif :cool:

:smokin:

[The Saucepan Man]

An eye for an eyeSad to say, but you're probably right. Shame, because it's one sure-fire way of handing over the village to the Wolves.

I have been reviewing the voting in light of Perky's claimed (and now probable) innocence.

My top suspects are now:

Azaelia: As noted before, has posted quite frequently and said very little of help. Voted for Gil-Galad yester-Day and me to-Day. Her vote for me to-Day looks to me like an attempt to take out both Eomer and I.

Marcolie Lamen: Voted for arcticstorm (someone whom I now tend to view as innocent) yester-Day and Azaelia to-Day. Her vote to-Day was a perfect opportunity for a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Wilwarin: Like Azaelia, has posted quite a bit, but said little. Voted for Perky yester-Day and to-Day. Has made very few other accusations.

Note that none of these have voted the same way on a Day, yet all of their votes look suspicious to me.

Hell, I could be completely wrong. I certainly haven't dismissed the idea of Boro, or indeed a number of others, being a Wolf. That's just the way that I'm thinking at the moment.

[wilwarin538]

Cross-posted with Perky. Well well, it looks like he's the Ranger.

Oh crap.

Well I guess I'm going to have to come up with a nice long defence for myself.

I would like to apologize Perky. :(

[Formendacil]

Dear Readers of the Wasted Times,

My apolgies for taking so long to getting back to you. The great danger of issuing a press statement is that the time of its release is dependent on the publication's going to press.

First of all, I'd like to thank those who defended me in my absence during the latter half of Day 1 of this terrible tragedy, and thus far in Day 2. I'd like to state that, while I cannot provide conclusive evidence that would not be struck down as hearsay, I was, in fact, doing as Eomer said, and really just striking out to get the pot stirring and to fulfill my civic duty before being called away for an unavoidable emergency.

At that point in Day 1, it was impossible to tell from the scant evidence who the killers were. Without a second crime or third crime to determine a pattern, and without a local law enforcement to gather clues, our only recourse for the gathering of information that would lead to a conviction was to poke and prod people into talking- and possibly revealing more than they ought.

Unfortunately, this did not happen, and I mourn the death of Shelob, my fellow common villager.

However, having managed just now to review the debates of those trying to solve the mystery, I have to wonder just who is guilty.

Boromir, and Eomer are temporarily granted indulgences on my part, in their defence of me, and in that they seem to be more cautious in their voting- while still seeking the truth- which is as it should be.

Saucepan Man, however, seems too pushy in his attempts to seek the guilty. And I do not absolve him of guilt in my own mind, but I will keep him on my personal suspect list.

Azaelia is my true fear at the moment. She says enough to be considered active, but lets the debates flow mostly without her input. Seems werewolfish to me...

I am very suspicious of Perky as well, but for now, I think it best that I vote:

++Azaelia of Willowbottom

[The Perky Ent]

Oh crap.

Well I guess I'm going to have to come up with a nice long defence for myself.

I would like to apologize Perky. :(



*hops up and down in a circle* I was saying to myself "I just bet someone's gonna say 'Oh crap. He's the ranger. >.<' and I got my wish "

I apologize for you having to come up with a defence, but that's the price you took when you voted for me :D Your apology is accepted. I'm actually having more fun knowing i'm condemned.

I am very suspicious of Perky as well ...where have you been the last few posts? Just for this one post, unlike all my others on this thread, I will not use the pipe icon, but the sword! :rolleyes:

[The Saucepan Man]

It's a shame that you weren't here earlier, Formendacil. We might have spared Perky and caught the she-Wolf Azaelia. :(

[Holbytlass]

*TIME* all votes are in

[Holbytlass]

It was a grim day and the sky reflected the grey in everyone's heart. After retrieving Shelob's remains, some helped the cemetary keeper dig holes, others helped prepare and dress the bodies for their eternal sleep.

There were befitting obituraries and lifelike sketches of the deceased in the newspaper. The tradesmen worked hard on the tombstones made of finely grained woods and metals interlaced with silver.

The funeral was held at mid-morn, under the angry sky. The villagers passed by the dead saying their final goodbyes and placing in each open casket a small token or trinket of importance, while a sweet soprano voice sang lyrics of haunting beauty of life and loss.

Spiritual and psyche councel were available, but everyone wanted to get the ghastly deed done, another had to die.

Again much speech and again votes tallyed. When The Perky Ent- pipeweed salesman's hit highest, the men came to hog-tie him as well.

"There is no need." said Perky, with his right hand raised palm forward.
"I have always been in service to this village and you have my word that I will not run."

They followed him outside, where he knelt down by the tree, unsheathing his sword. The villagers watched in awe as his countenance grew fair and determined. Perky sang in a language known only to a few elite.

"I hope this will bring the much needed knowledge to help you all, I make my final sacrifice. I lived by the sword and honorably die by the sword." With these final words The Perky Ent-Ranger of the North, plunged his sword through his torso.



villagers:9
wolves:3

dead
Holby(mod) clawed from wolves night 1
Gil-Galad(Ordinary)shot by firing squad day1
Shelob(ordinary)killed by wolves jack-o-lantern style night2
The Perky Ent(ranger)executed by his sword day2


living
Morm
Formendacil
Wilwarin
Saucepan Man
Eomer
Arcticstorm
Alcarillo
Abercrombie
Marcolie
Azaelia
Boromir
Cailin

~wolves may P.M.
~names from wolves, seer, hunter

[Holbytlass]

After the Ranger's ultimate sacrifice, the men solemnly bore him on their shoulders back into the Inn with the women trailing behind wailing and gnashing of teeth.

They laid Perky on the bar of the tavern hall. Then began a night of celebration, opening many barrels and smoking many pipes in his honor and the others' memory. Music and dance filled the hall along with cheers.

Hours later the tavern hall was thick with smoke and the fevered pitch still high. One foolishly stepped outside alone for a bit of fresh air. Trying to gaze through the cloud filled sky for a glimpse of the stars, the one didn't notice until too late the three wolves sprinting towards themself.

One of the wolves leapt up and caught the villager by the throat dragging, with the help of the other two, the one deeper into the woods....

The villagers finally woke up, their heads as hazy as the hall and suffering massive hangovers. All lined up for the morbid and mandatory head count.

Instant sober for they were all of them there.





villagers:8
wolves:4

deadHolby(mod) clawed from wolves night 1
Gil-Galad(Ordinary)shot by firing squad day1
Shelob(ordinary)killed by wolves jack-o-lantern style night2
The Perky Ent(ranger)executed by his sword day2
nobody on night3

living
Morm
Formendacil
Wilwarin
Saucepan Man
Eomer
Arcticstorm
Alcarillo
Abercrombie
Marcolie
Azaelia
Boromir
Cailin

~wolves stop P.M.ing

[wilwarin538]

I'm going to quote myself here. Oh crap.

Looks like we now have 4 woles to worry about.

I would just like to say that I'm sorry for my very large part in Perky's lynching. I was so sure about him and was terribly wrong. Now I can't help but think that it's my fault he is gone.

I'm going to think a little harder about who I suspect and come up with some better reasons.

I can't do that now, but I will tomorrow.

[Boromir88]

Oh my, our wolves have caught thee curs-ed. I wonder if anyone else here happens to be a deprogrammer? I'm beginning to feel I need an unbrainwashing!

If we don't catch a wolf tonight, our situation becomes dire. With no Ranger, and if the hunter doesn't happen to pick a wolf we could be down 6-4 going into the next day. I'm curious to see who this newly acquired person is, but let's focus on a wolf tonight.

My suspects:

1) Arcticstorm- he tops my list today, as you will see in a post (probably tomorrow but maybe later tonight) arctic had no suspicion of Perky, even as went as far as saying he believed Perky probably wasn't a wolf, but still ended up voting for him.

2) Sauce- Same reasons as yesterday. Don't trust him, and trust him even less now that he voted for Perky and tries to turn suspicion towards me.

3) Alcarillo- Doesn't say much. Voted for Gil and Perky, not a very good track-record.

[arcticstorm]

I am inclined to beleive that Saucepan is innocent, so I will try to seve him from the noose if I can, unless it condemns me.

1) Arcticstorm- he tops my list today, as you will see in a post (probably tomorrow but maybe later tonight) arctic had no suspicion of Perky, even as went as far as saying he believed Perky probably wasn't a wolf, but still ended up voting for him.


Now with this, as my previous quote says, I was more inclined to beleive in Sauce's innocence than Perky's. At the time I thought that Saucepan would be more useful to the village than Perky, and so I tried to save him. Unfortunately this led to the lynching of our ranger. We have to be very careful, We only have two chances to catch a wolf before they kill us all.

[wilwarin538]

Just an idea but how about we lynch who ever we think the Wolves might have chosen last night? I know we can't really know that since we don't know who the wolves are, but its just an idea.

You know everyone has a 50/50 chance of voting for a wolf. Just thought that was kinda strange.

[arcticstorm]

actually, it is more of a 33% chance of voting for a wolf since one third of the population is made up of wolves. Obviously we ar elucky because the seer is still alive, but unfortunately any dreams he may have had earlier that have pointed to an innocent are completely useless now. I will go back through my records and post a list of how the votings went yesterday.

[arcticstorm]

I have not checked up on anybody's suspicions yet, but here is a list of who voted for whom in order yesterday

Eomer voted for Sauce
Mormegil voted for Arcticstorm
Alcarillo voted for Perky
Abercrombie voted for Arcticstorm
Boromir voted for Sauce
Azaelia voted for Sauce
Marcolie voted for Azaelia
Perky voted for Arcticstorm
Cailin voted for Perky
Arcticstorm voted for Perky
Sauce voted for Perky
Formendacil voted for Azaelia

[Boromir88]

I am less supicious of Perky right now because he seems too suspicious, like Formendacil yesterday.~arcticstorm post #120

And I said...
I also agree with this.~post #125
And my main reason for not voting for him.

Which you go further on to say in the post I quoted you on above...
Right now everyone is suspecting him and he needs an advocate, even if it is not that good of one. Even if he is guilty, what the village needs is to look at everyone through all lenses
and...
They will not beleading the attack on perky, but they will join in, and not near the end either, somewhere in the middle if that is where it ends up.
Which you joined in, though it was towards the end, but as you say "a wolf wouldn't join towards the end, but in the middle..."

And since I think arctic is possibly a wolf, I wouldn't doubt if we had a Sauce-arctic duo, who seem to be connected, yet not in a strong way. Arctic says, if Perky's a wolf he wants to write off Sauce (with a few other names-I think Wilwa and morm, though I think he might have just tried to throw them in there) as an innocent.

Just an idea but how about we lynch who ever we think the Wolves might have chosen last night? I know we can't really know that since we don't know who the wolves are, but its just an idea.~Wilwa
Not a bad idea, our situation is becoming desperate, this may be of some help.

Edit: I got the suspects, but just debating if I want to save it for tomorrow, I might as well do it now.

[mormegil]

Just an idea but how about we lynch who ever we think the Wolves might have chosen last night? I know we can't really know that since we don't know who the wolves are, but its just an idea.


I was thinking along the same lines myself. If I were guessing who would have died tonight I would have said that 3 candidates were most likely.

SpM
Eomer
Cailin



This is of course under the assumption that they were not already wolves. I say SpM and Eomer because of their little battle. If both are innocent the wolves take out an intelligent villager and cast a lot of suspicion on the other. Now this would be an obvious set up attempt but we, the villagers, would possibly believe they were trying to pull off the double-bluff.

Cailin, intelligent and contributing member but had little to no suspicion on her. Just like Shelob the night before.

I am thinking though that the new wolf will show us some change of heart that will be telling.

I am beginning to view Marcolie with much greater suspicion. I think there is much more than meets the eye in her and I think I may be voting for her today.

[The Saucepan Man]

The situation is already dire, Boro. A third of the Villagers are now Wolves. You are right that we need to catch a Wolf to-Day. Which is why I believe that all of the remaining innocent Villagers (and I can assure you that (still) includes me) need to think clearly and carefully to-Day. It is not a Day for half-cocked accusations or hasty voting. We need to look at all the evidence that we have so far, if possible with freash eyes. It is very easy to get stuck in the rut of suspecting and accusing the same people each Day. Suspicions accumulated over the two Days may well prove right, but each Day the evidence changes and we need to look at it with fresh eyes. This is even more true now than it was before as we unfortunately have a new enemy to contend with, someone who will not have been thinking like a Wolf up until now. On the plus side, it does increase our odds of catching a Wolf, but that is little comfort.

In any event, for these reasons, I am reconsidering everything anew. I have done much thinking to this end overnight but, given the addition of an extra Werewolf, I need to think some more.

For now, here is the voting from yester-Day, in the usual format:

1. Eomer for SpM (SpM - 1)
2. Wilwa for Perky (SpM - 1; Perky - 1)
3. Mormegil for arcticstorm (SpM - 1; Perky - 1; arcticstorm - 1)
4. Alcarillo for Perky (SpM - 1; Perky - 2; arcticstorm - 1)
5. Abercrombie for arcticstorm (SpM - 1; Perky - 2; arcticstorm - 2)
6. Boromir88 for SpM (SpM - 2; Perky - 2; arcticstorm - 2)
7. Azaelia for SpM (SpM - 3; Perky - 2; arcticstorm - 2)
8. Marcolie Lamen for Azaelia (SpM - 3; Perky - 2; arcticstorm - 2; Azaelia - 1)
9. Perky for arcticstorm (SpM - 3; Perky - 2; arcticstorm - 3; Azaelia - 1)
10. Cailin for Perky (SpM - 3; Perky - 3; arcticstorm - 3; Azaelia - 1)
11. Arcticstorm for Perky (SpM - 3; Perky - 4; arcticstorm - 3; Azaelia - 1)
12. SpM for Perky (SpM - 3; Perky - 5; arcticstorm - 3; Azaelia - 1)
13. Formendacil for Azaelia (SpM - 3; Perky - 5; arcticstorm - 3; Azaelia - 2)

I will post my further thoughts, either later tonight or tomorrow (RL time).

In the meantime, might I ask why you suddenly voted for me out of the blue yester-Day, Boro? It is all very well to say that I am vocal and articulate and therefore, if a Wolf, dangerous. But that equally applies to you, and to a number of others here. And it was only your latching on to Eomer’s vote for me, without having previously given any indication that you might vote for me that turned my suspicions towards you. I thought I saw an attempt to use Eomer as a “patsy” and kill two (innocent and, for the Wolves, troubling) birds with one stone, as it were. But, as I said, I am now considering everything afresh. Basically, as matters stand, I am not discounting anybody. But neither do I intend making any rash accusations.

Edit: Cross-posting with a few people there.

[Boromir88]

Mormegil:
Suspected- Perky, arctic
Voted for- Day 1: Perky
Day 2: Arctic

Formendacil:
Suspected- Sauce, Azaelia, Perky
Voted for-Day 1: Marcolie
Day 2: Azaelia

Wilwarin:
Suspected- Perky
Voted for- Day 1: Perky
Day 2: Perky

Saucepan:
Suspected- Perky, arctic, Azaelia, Boromir, Eomer (though less than the rest)
Voted for- Day 1: Perky
Day 2: Perky

Eomer:
Suspected- Sauce
Voted for- Day 1: Azaelia
Day 2: Sauce

Arcticstorm:
Suspected- Alcarillo, Azaelia, Wilwarin, mormegil
Voted for- Day 1: No one
Day 2: Perky

Alcarillo:
Suspected- Perky
Voted for- Day 1: Gil-galad
Day 2: Perky

Abercrombie:
Suspected- Sauce, Wilwa, morm, Cailin
Voted for- Day 1: No one
Day 2: arctic

Marcolie:
Suspected- Perky, arctic, Alcarillo
Voted for- Day 1: arcticstorm
Day 2: Azaelia

Cailin:
Suspected- arctic, Eomer
Voted for- Day 1: arcticstorm
Day 2: Perky

Azaelia:
Suspected- arcticstorm, Perky
Voted for- Day 1: Gil-galad
Day 2:Sauce

I definitely think a wolf was in Perky's lynching. Which means...
Alcarillo
Wilwarin (you forgot her arctic)
Cailin
SpM
arcticstorm

Now I'm strongly suspicious of three people in this group, Alcarillo, Sauce, and arctic. I'm more incline to believe Alcarillo or arctic at this point, over Sauce. (I'm going to change from my first post).

Alcarillo's gotten his hands dirty in the lynching of innocents twice and arctic I've explained earlier. I don't think 3 wolves would all vote the same this early on. It's a very bold double bluff to try to pull off, but it would give them no room to move around or free themselves.

Azaelia and Marcolie seem to follow along with other suspects. Which could mean they are a wolf, are a target for the wolves therefor the ex-cursed, or were innocent villagers convinced by arguments.

I got a bad feeling about Eomer, if you want to know scrounge through posts yesterday and try to find it. I wish to not incriminate anyone.

So, to date:
1) arctic
2) Alcarillo
3) Eomer/Sauce
4) Azaelia/Marcolie

Ok, so who is are possible victim yesterday, I will fill in my thoughts tomorrow.

[Boromir88]

In the meantime, might I ask why you suddenly voted for me out of the blue yester-Day, Boro?
I had voiced suspicions prior. I said I most likely wouldn't vote for you unless you start lynching innocents, but I had a change of mind. I didn't latch on to Eomer, I feel you may be a danger, and still are, but between you, arctic, or Perky yesterday (I remind you yesterday, my thoughts have changed today) I felt you were the most suspicious.

[Márcolië Lamen]

*sigh*

Alas, I come from my studies and find that a third of us are now hiding furry feelings of murder.
I don't trust myself to word feeling correctly, since I've been half asleep all day and have a headache, as well as having to be amoung the sick. Tomarrow though, I'll definitally be able to analyze everything.

Judging off of feelings top suspects.
1. Azelia
2. artic
3.Eomer
4. someone who was an easy kill...Cailin perhaps?

Sorry about not being able to say more now

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Azaelia and Marcolie seem to follow along with other suspects. Which could mean they are a wolf, are a target for the wolves therefor the ex-cursed, or were innocent villagers convinced by arguments.

At least in my case, you hit the nail on the head with the last point. I am innocent, I was just convinced by arguments. I don't think I was a wolf target. I'm under too much suspicion for them to decide to kill me. I'm probably doing them a favor right now by drawing attention to myself.

Marcolie, what "feelings" are you basing your suspicion of me off of? I don't like being in a situation where I give people a "bad feeling" because there is no way to defend myself from that, other than to say that the feeling is misplaced.

It's getting late for me here, and I am not thinking my best. I will "see" you all tomorrow (in RL time, not WW time).

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, time for some thoughts.

Let’s look at the voting on Day 1.

It has been suggested that a Wolf probably voted for Gil. Out of those who voted for Gil, only Azaelia and Alcarillo remain alive. I do still wonder whether Gil would have been top of the Wolves “lynch list”. I suspect that they would rather have kept him around for a few Days, since he would have acted as a kind of “insurance policy” for them on a subsequent Days. That said, I certainly do not discount the possibility that a Wolf voted for Gil on Day 1.

What is more interesting about the voting on Day 1 is that it was well spread out until about half-way through the voting. With 7 Villagers attracting votes, I am sure that at least one of them was a Wolf. Those who attracted votes on Day 1 were (excluding those no longer with us):

Marcolie Lamen
Azaelia
Wilwarin
Arcticstorm
SpM

Now, when all of these Villagers (plus Perky and Gil) had one vote each, I am sure that one of the Wolves and quite possibly two will have come in to steer the voting away from the Wolf that I believe to be on that list. They will have voted for Gil, Perky or (assuming that he is not a Wolf) arcticstorm.

Wilwarin and I voted for Perky. Shelob, Perky and Alcarillo voted for Gil (but we can obviously discount Shelob and Perky). Marcolie Lamen voted for arcticstorm.

On that basis, I would conclude that one and quite probably two of the following are Wolves:

Marcolie Lamen
Azaelia
Wilwarin
Arcticstorm
Alcarillo

(Yes, I know that my reasoning also points to me, but I know that I am not a Wolf.)

It’s unlikely that both Azaelia and Alcarillo are Wolves, as I would have expected them to spread their votes between diferent Villagers.

So then we come to Day 2 voting.

Eomer launches in first with a strong attack on me. He is fierce and passionate but in my view somewhat over the top. He accuse me of having picked on him and having gone for him when, in my view, I did no such thing. This does seem a rather risky way for a Wolf to behave, but Eomer is undoubtedly one of those who could pull off such a bold move as a Wolf.

Eomer’s vote, together with Perky and articstorm having been in the frame from the precious Day’s voting (and, in arcticstorm’s case, his failure to vote), meant that there were really only ever three candidates for lynching on Day 2. That’s a shame because it means that the voting tells us less than it might otherwise. But so be it.

As I will explain later, I am currently inclined to view arcticstorm as innocent (or at least as innocent up until last Night). I know that I am. So, as far as I am concerned, the only likely candidates for lynching on Day 2 were all innocents. Therefore no need for the Wolves to put in any saving votes. They could concentrate on one or two people that they wanted to see lynched. I believe that I am one of those. Hence, I consider that at least one of those who voted for me is a Wolf, namely:

Eomer
Boromir88
Azaelia

I also believe that at least one Wolf voted for Perky. That implicates:

Wilwarin
Alcarillo
Cailin
Arcticstorm
SpM

Since I don’t believe that, at that point, either arcticstorm or Cailin were Wolves and I most certainly am not, that leaves Alcarillo and wilwarin.

Assuming, again, that the Wolves spread their votes out (and they could certainly afford to), the third Wolf would have voted for either arcticstorm or Azaelia (possibly a “safe” Wolf-on-Wolf vote). Those people are:

Mormegil
Abercrombie
Marcolie Lamen
Formendacil

So why am I inclined to believe that arcticstorm and Cailin are (or at least were) innocent? Because, if they were Wolves, I would have expected them to vote for me rather than Perky, as I picked up no indication that Perky was the Ranger and I doubt that the Wolves did either. By voting for Perky in order to save me, Cailin and arcticstorm were putting themselves in a very precarious position since, when Perky was proved innocent, they were likely to come under suspicion, even moreso as both of them had earlier expressed doubts as to Perky’s guilt. It’s possible that a Wolfish arcticstorm would have thought that a vote for Perky would be more likely to save him, but I somehow doubt that. He knew that Cailin had already voted for Perky and he knew that I was likely to. So I just don’t see Wolves acting in the way that arcticstorm and Cailin did at the end of yester-Day.

So, taking the two Days’ voting together, I believe that the three original Wolves will be found amongst the following groupings:

Either Azaelia, Boromir88 or Eomer

Either wilwarin or Alcarillo

Either mormegil or Marcolie Lamen

I have not included Formendacil or Abercrombie, as I don’t real have much of a handle on them at the moment. I do tend to think, however, that a Wolf would not have acted as Formendacil did on Day 1.

At this stage, I am finding it difficult to pinpoint it any more than that.

OK. I know what you are thinking. Sauce’s reasoning relies almost entirely on him being innocent. Well, of course it does. That’s because I am innocent silly :p . But I don’t expect you to take my word for it. My reasons for setting all this out are partly to order my own thoughts and partly to assist the remaining innocents, should I either be lynched to-Day or be set upon by Wolves to-Night. Oh, and it may help other innocents to order their own thoughts, whether or not they share my conclusions.

As for wilwa’s idea that we try looking for the fourth Wolf by considering who the Wolves were likely to have attacked last Night, there may well be some merit in it. Of course, I know I was not attacked but, even if you do not take my word for it, consider whether they would have attacked someone who was likely to be in the firing line to-Day. For what it’s worth, I think that the following would have been the most likely victims (assuming that they were not already Wolves):

Mormegil
Boromir88
Cailin

Possibly Eomer too, although they may have thought that he would have come under suspicion to-Day, or that he would be useful in furthering suspicion of me.

[Formendacil]

T'is a sad day. No one died, t'is true, but an innocent has been taken from us regardless. He or she who was once as innocent as a lamb is now as perilous as any of the fiends who attack us. I have been mulling it over, and here are my suspicions:

Mormegil: Mormegil attracts the least of my worry. He cannot be the Seer, though, since he would not have voted for Perky on Day 1 and still suspected him on Day 2. It's possible that he's been playing a clever game, but I do not see him as an original werewolf, and I don't see him as the mostly likely target.

Wilwarin: Wilwarin attracts my suspicion. She voted for Perky two days in sucession, and is plainly cleared of being the Seer on that score, for she would likely have known that he was the Ranger. Wilwarin seems like a likely Wolf to me, but not as the Cursed One.

Saucepan: For the same reasons as Wilwa, I think that Saucey may be a Wolf- but not the Cursed One. He talks a great deal, and casts suspicions on pretty much everybody, but does little to definitely convict any of them until he sees which way the wind is blowing. The question is, is it harmless chatter or dangerous motives?

Eomer: I don't think that Eomer was an original Werewolf. But if Sauce and Wilwa WERE two of the culprits, then he maybe the new Werewolf, thanks to the opposition he put up, especially to Sauce.

Arcticstorm: Arcticstrom seems suspicious to me. He kept a low profile the first day, and helped vote Perky off yesterday. Again, I do not think him the Cursed One.

Alcarillo: If Alcarillo was a Werewolf, he's hidden it well. Nothing he's done yet has set off a Werewolf warning in my mind, although he may simply be staying undercover fairly well. He doesn't seem like a Cursed One candidate.

Abercrombie: This young lady doesn't seem like the Cursed One to me, nor a Werewolf. But I'm putting her down as a backup Werewolf. She might be the undercover one. Voting for Arctic yesterday may have been a front...

Marcolie: Marcolie was the victim of my first, random, vote, but thus far there is no evidence that that vote had anything going for it other than random. I don't think that she was a Werewolf. I'm almost certain that she wasn't the Cursed One- unless the Wolves decided to go for an unknown rather than a loudmouth.

Cailin: Much the same as Marcolie. I have nothing yet against her that would suggest she is a werewolf. But her vote for Perky yesterday is a sore spot...

Azaelia: I suspected her yesterday, and I still do. However, her voting record means that if she's a werewolf, then Sauce probably isn't. Still, she could also have been the Cursed One.

Boromir88: Mostly out from under my suspicion, Boro could still be the Cursed One. He strikes me as a major target for the Wolves, if he was innocent.

Now, I obviously consider myself innocent. As a matter of fact, I am innocent, but that is going to be rather difficult to prove, now isn't it?

My suspicions lie strongest on Azaelia, Arcticstorm, the Saucepan Man, and Wilwarin. I doubt if those exact four are the four werewolves, but statistically speaking, one or two of them ought to be...

[The Saucepan Man]

I got a bad feeling about Eomer, if you want to know scrounge through posts yesterday and try to find it. I wish to not incriminate anyone.Interesting that you should say that, Boro. I wonder whether you may have picked up on the same thing that I did as I mused over the proceedings to date last Night. I wasn't going to say anything, not yet anyway. And I am most certainly not going to point anyone towards it because, like Boro, I don't wish to incriminate anyone.

But your comment certainly goes a long way towards lessening my suspicions of you, Boro.

[Alcarillo]

A third of us are wolves? The game is getting dangerous. We must think like the wolves if we're going to catch the cursed one, at least. So who would the wolves kill?

1. A useful person, on the loud side, without whom the village would have a difficult time catching wolves. Cailin, Saucepan Man, Boro, and all the loud ones. Unfortunately, if we lynch one of these people and he/she turns out to be innocent, we have lost a valuable member of the village.

or

2. A quiet person, whose death would probably not help the village make any plans. Myself, Marcolie, a few others fall into this category.

The problem is knowing which sort of people the wolves go after. I tend to think of the first category, which Shelob fell into, is what the wolves would want to eliminate first, and especially last night, when the ranger was gone. The ex-cursed could also be somebody people would be hesitant to lynch. Saucepan Man or Boro or another with little to no suspicion could certainly be the ex-cursed. Somebody with a good voting record could also be the new wolf. However, if we do lynch one and he turns out to be innocent, our village has suffered a grievous loss. If we let him live and he is a wolf, then his influence is surely a very grave danger.

[The Saucepan Man]

The ex-cursed could also be somebody people would be hesitant to lynch. Saucepan Man or Boro or another with little to no suspicion could certainly be the ex-cursed.I wish it were so, but I hardly think that, after yester-Day's events, I fit the description of one with "little or no suspicion". :rolleyes:

I agree that we may be going down a very dangerous path if we try to second guess who the Wolves would have gone for last Night. I think that we have a much better chance of spotting one of the three original Wolves from the evidence accumulated over the past two Days' comments and votes.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

So they got the cursed? Oh dear...

I think Wilwa's hit on something good with trying to rationalize who the wolves would've killed last night.

At the end of the day yesterday, people who were looking suspicious were (and not just on my suspicious list, on everyone's):

Azaelia
Boromir
Marcolie
Wilwarin
Saucepan Man
Mormegil
Eomer

So what does this tell us? This is like half the village.

I do think though, that they would've tried to keep a few of these people around, which means we can cross them off as the cursed. (Keep in mind I'm just talking about the newest addition to the wolf family, any of these people might very well be wolves.)

Azaelia and Wilwarin are both very similar players in my mind. They are both also very suspicious, what with their frequent posts and infrequent reasoning. I can pretty much write them off as not being the cursed, they seem far too likely for wolf fodder.

The same goes for Marcolie, she barely posted at all yesterday, which is sure to be suspicious and wolves would not want to kill her off.

So I'm left with Boromir, Saucepan Man, Mormegil and Eomer. And of these four, it seems to me the two most likely candidates for wolvery are Saucepan Man and Mormegil.

They are both loud and smart; they're both players that, if killed the wolves would benefit from it. The only other person that I can include in this category is Cailin, who from what I saw yesterday, is a capable player and if she's been consistently mentioning names of wolves, probably would have been killed.

So of the possibilities for Cursed, I think these three are the ones we should focus on:
Saucepan Man
Mormegil
Cailin.

I've not the time to look at who might be the three old wolves, but tomorrow I'll return.

crossposted with SPM, Alcarillo

[The Saucepan Man]

The more I think about this, the more I think that this suggestion of looking for the "ex-Cursed" is a very bad idea. It diverts us away from looking for the original three Wolves and presents the Wolves with a perfect opportunity to lead us into lynching yet another innocent. And even if we were to find the fourth Wolf, it would tell us little if anything about the identity of the original three Wolves, because that person will have been thinking and voting like an innocent up 'til now. If, on the other hand, we catch one of the original three, there is likely to be some kind of a trail that we can follow to the other two.

I suspect that there is a Wolfish plot going on here to divert us away from finding the original three.

And if that makes you think that I am the fourth Wolf, well you are wrong, but I am willing to take that risk in order to offer what I consider to be good counsel.

[Formendacil]

The more I think about this, the more I think that this suggestion of looking for the "ex-Cursed" is a very bad idea. It diverts us away from looking for the original three Wolves and presents the Wolves with a perfect opportunity to lead us into lynching yet another innocent. And even if we were to find the fourth Wolf, it would tell us little if anything about the identity of the original three Wolves, because that person will have been thinking and voting like an innocent up 'til now. If, on the other hand, we catch one of the original three, there is likely to be some kind of a trail that we can follow to the other two.


On the flip side of the coin, however, if we find the Cursed One by deducing who would likely have been taken yesterday, we would learn WHY they were taken, and thus WHO was likely to have taken them.

After all, we can learn the pattern of the murderers by the crimes they commit. The attacking of the Cursed One is merely the third murder, botched.

[The Saucepan Man]

On the flip side of the coin, however, if we find the Cursed One by deducing who would likely have been taken yesterday, we would learn WHY they were taken, and thus WHO was likely to have taken them.Well, think what you will. But I fail to see why identifying the intended victim should tell us a great deal about the identities of the attempted murderers. After all, the Wolves were acting on the basis that their "victim" would be revealed and they would therefore have targetted someone who would not point too much suspicion towards them.

After a Day or two, however, there will be the beginnings of a trail leading from the fourth Wolf to the others, since they will have been working together for some time.

I still say that we focus on the original three, at least for to-Day.

[mormegil]

But I fail to see why identifying the intended victim should tell us a great deal about the identities of the attempted murderers. After all, the Wolves were acting on the basis that their "victim" would be revealed and they would therefore have targetted someone who would not point too much suspicion towards them.


I think we are forgetting that the wolves main target would be the seer. So if we could think who they would think the seer is then we would know who that person suspected and what made the wolves kille him/her. The major problem with this whole thing though is we won't know, if we kill a wolf, whether of not they were the fourth wolf. But in my thinking Cailin is most likely candidate for the fourth wolf. She seemed a lot like Shelob to me.

I still say that we focus on the original three, at least for to-Day.

considering all the difficulties I agree.

I will try and review everything said and post more later.

[mormegil]

I don't really have much time to explain reasoning here, after spending hours reading through all that has been said, but I think I have a decent top 5 suspect list. This is in no particular order.

1. Eomer
2. Alcarillo
3. Azaelia
4. Saucepan Man
5. Marcolie

I wouldn't be surprised if 3 wolves were in that list. But now I need to decide which one to vote for.

Much of the reason I suspect them has already been stated so I won't repeat that but on SpM onpost 165 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=418862&postcount=165) he is rather emphatic in his assertion that he is innocent. I believe I counted at least 4 times his expression that he is innocent, a very uncharacteristic thing for SpM to do. This makes me view him as the fourth wolf. I will review what has been said when I wake up (RL) and take into consideration all of it.

[Cailín]

Uh oh. The Cursed has been found. The odds are slowly turning against us, out of 12 players, there are now 4 wolves among us.

I was most relieved to see I had survived the night, because I figured I’d be an easy kill, since I was not really high on anyone’s suspect list. But the wolves must have gone for someone else. Now, we can spend hours debating on who this might have been (likely candidates being Boro, SpM, Formendacil or Mormegil, assuming they were innocent before) but we will - especially since a third of us are now wolfish, probably not figure it out and end up lynching a helpful innocent.

So, let’s get back to the original wolves...

Mormegil - I’m not sure about him. I’m inclined to trust him for now, since I agree with most of what he has been saying toDay and yesterDay. It is true, he voted for Perky on day one and still suspected him strongly the next day, but he’s really not the only one who has a voting record against him.

Formendacil - Far too quiet to trust.

Wilwarin - I think Wilwa might be one of our wolves here. She attracted some suspicion during the last few days, but never quite enough to get her in any real danger. When we started suspecting her, it was together with the other quiet villager Azaelia, but now Azaelia is the only one still really on our radar. It’s hard to explain, but if Azaelia is innocent, I think Wilwarin is definitely someone to look at.

Saucepan Man - I trusted him yesterDay (which is pretty obvious when you look at the way I voted) and still am pretty much convinced he at least wasn’t an original wolf.

Eomer - He’s very likely getting my vote today. I just don’t trust him. His behavior on Day 1, which I brought up yesterday, he only deflected by attacking SpM in a most passionate way. If you look closer at the evidence we have against him... And then look closer at how little suspicion he has attracted even despite that... That is the mark of a wolf, and a clever one.

Arcticstorm - I trust arcticstorm far more than yesterDay, but I don’t think he’s entirely cleared just yet. I very much hope he turns out to be a wolf, so we weren’t wrong about everything. On the other hand, he voted for Perky, following me, more or less because I asked him to (yeah, that was an oops), which would be risking thing to do if he were a wolf indeed.

Alcarillo - Might be wolfish. I really dislike quiet people, since I am unable to conjure up any evidence against them ;)

AbercrombieofRohan - Someone who has not attracted much suspicion yet, but we should not forget about. She did not vote the first day, but claimed she would have voted Perky (not really such a great excuse now, huh?) and steadily votes for Perky the next day.

Marcolie - I said I’d be keeping an eye on you, but I failed miserably. I seriously distrust you now, especially since you voted so strangely yesterday. Certainly, Azaelia was on most people’s suspect list by then, especially after Perky bravely decided to reveal himself, but it’s a very easy vote, for you are not suffering from post-Day 2 trauma right now, as most of us secretly are.

Azaelia - I do not think she’s a wolf. She has been attracting suspicion since Day 1, yesterDay at the end of voting time, everybody suddenly believed her to be furry and evil. Sure, she has a little explaining to do, but I’m one of those crazy ones who think that the more suspicion people attract from the beginning, the more likely they are innocents.

Boromir - I had him very high on my suspect list for a while, because he seemed mostly to be following Eomer, who everyone knows I distrust. His posts today, however, seem more helpful and far more innocent. I think he might be the Cursed. He still may be a wolf. But I am very ready to admit most of the negative vibes I get from him are due to his inappropriate avatar ^^

My suspect list, as of now:

1) Eomer
2) Marcolie / AbercrombieofRohan
3) Wilwa / Boromir
4) Formendacil

*waiting for everyone to wake up*

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Wonderful. Guardian gone, cursed transformed. I suppose the Seer will go tonight.

I'm not at all sure who might have been the Cursed villager, but Cailín is one of the original wolves. I noticed this as I lay in bed, fearful, last night.

I'll explain her wolvish ways momentarily.

[The Saucepan Man]

I think we are forgetting that the wolves main target would be the seer.I had not forgotten that. I just do not think it helpful in the least to speculate openly who the Seer may or may not be or who the Wolves may have thought that the Seer was.

... on SpM onpost 165 he is rather emphatic in his assertion that he is innocent. I believe I counted at least 4 times his expression that he is innocent, a very uncharacteristic thing for SpM to do.Very observant, morm. In normal circumstances, you would be correct. But much of the reasoning in that post is based on the fact that I am innocent, and it was therefore necessary to state the fact where appropriate to show the (attempted) logic of my reasoning (and also to avoid the inevitable accusations that I had deliberately omitted myself from categories of suspicious villager into which I fell myself).

Now I have some work to do. Trees don’t chop themselves down, you know. I will try to return during my lunch break and set out my thoughts on each of my remaining fellow villagers.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

#119. Eomer claims this about Cailín:

"...Cailín thinks it would be ridiculous for Innocent-Eomer to attack The Saucepan Man"

and then goes on to argue exactly why it's not ridiculous.


#121. Cailín claims that Eomer is twisting her words. What she actually said was this:

"He [Eomer] states he would never pick a fight with SpM if he's a wolf. Ridiculous."

and chides Eomer: "Read again, sweetie."


Well, noble villagers, let me ask you to make up your own minds. Here is exactly what Cailín said in that first troublesome post – #116:

"He states he would never pick a fight with SpM if he's a wolf. Ridiculous. He would never have attacked SpM were he an innocent."

Is that correct? Was I right about that implication all along? Did she forget what she herself had typed? Is she actually saying that no innocent has the right to attack The Saucepan Man?

Cailín just lied. She hoped that you wouldn't notice; she hoped that I would be too timid to respond. Cailín's lie, which she told in her post #121, is audacious and very bold indeed.

It looks to me as if Cailín and The Saucepan Man are on the same side. Probably both, but certainly one of them, is a werewolf. Why they picked my contributions to corrupt and defile I don't know, but they did. Just as well I have my eyes open.

[Cailín]

I'm sorry, but since when does poor use of the English language make someone a wolf?

What I was trying to say was: it's ridiculous to think Wolf-Eomer would never attack The Saucepan Man. He would sooner not attack him if he were innocent. But anyway, let each make up his own mind as to who is in the right here. This lie, fierce attack, badly expressed sentence or whatever you wish to call it is in my opinion a trifle matter anyway.

Is she actually saying that no innocent has the right to attack The Saucepan Man?

Really now. :) That would be a bold thing to imply. Every innocent has the right to attack anyone. You, however, are no innocent and have no rights whatsoever. :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So just what does "He would never have attacked SpM were he an innocent" mean, exactly, if not that innocents would not attack SpM?

Maybe you didn't directly link the word ridiculous to the following sentence, but the implication covered both following and preceding sentences. Even if you didn't say I was ridiculous you did clearly imply that I was wrong.

Poor use of the English language, you say? Nay Cailín, you sly bundle of sweetness and deceit, you are clearly too clever to make such a mistake.

At this stage I would also point out that Cailín's accusations of me are generally of the "You just are!" variety. I'll cite sources momentarily.

And I'll also deal with Saucepan Man's riposte momentarily.


Edit to Add: I'll actually deal with SpM later. Work calls me.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

#98. Claims that I started my own 'Formendacil-is-evil' campaign. What I actually did was agree with SpM and said that Form's behaviour is "worrying".

Claims that I tried to start a bandwagon against those with empty posts, namely wilwa and Azaelia. What I actually did was point out that they could prove unhelpful. I agreed with SpM on this point... I wonder where Cailín's suspicion of SpM is?

And here's one of Cailín's better pieces of evidence (SpM seemed worried by this too): "[Eomer is] very much in control of himself and there's a definite tactical thoughtfulness in each of his posts" Because only wolves have controlled and thoughtful natures, right?

#116. Claims that my attack on SpM is "desperate". Why, Cailín asks, would I viciously attack someone who most likely wasn't going to the gallows? I reply: Wasn't SpM third on the suspect list that Day? I'm not sure. Anyway, Cailín had a point here: Why should I choose someone else to argue against? Why did I not jump on a bandwagon? Why not indeed...

#126. (To Boromir) "Are you sure you wish to be in league with a suicidal wolf?" (To which Boromir made a pretty funny 'What are you talking about?' response).

#176. Says that I only deflected suspicion by attacking Saucepan Man, but it should be clear that I was only able to attack SpM by defending myself. Read the post again if you like; it's all there. Says that there is a lot of evidence against Eomer but not too much suspicion. This is a monstrous claim. There is too much suspicion on me, when you balance it with the amount of 'evidence' against me.

#180. Eomer is apparently no innocent and has no rights.

[Boromir88]

If we are going to be looking for who was targetted, I can come out and say It wasn't me. I'm not the cursed, I'm not a wolf, I'm not the hunter, I'm not the Seer, just an ordinary villager. I'm surprised I wasn't targetted yesterday, but here's some reasons why...

1) They think I'm the Hunter, which is foolish, because I'm not.

2) They don't think I'm the Seer, and they shouldn't or it would even be more foolish.

3) I think I'm on the right trail. If I was wrong, I think I would have been targetted yesterday, to set up those who I suspected. So that tells me I think one of these three are a wolf...arctic, Alcarillo, SpM, and if we put in Eomer, I probably have 2/4. If the wolves kill me, that would point suspicion to those I suspected, so since I'm not dead yet (nor have I met any new friends) that tells me I'm right.

Who was targetted yesterday? Well, from what we know wolves like to set people up. Like on Day 1, they killed Shelob who suspected and voted for Perky, so they could set up Perky for the lynching. So lets see who are prime suspects were yesterday, and see who the wolves may have gone after.

I would say these people were the prime suspicions yesterday.
arctic
Sauce
Azaelia

So, the wolves were probably trying to set up one of these three people for lynching today. Right now, I think the person most likely (that if he wasn't a wolf) would have been set up by the wolves, because it would be too dangerous to kill him would be Sauce.

So, who suspected Sauce yesterday?
Boromir88
Formendacil
Eomer
Abercrombie

It wasn't me yesterday, take it or leave it. I'm being straightforward and blunt. I got nothing to hide for I'm neither a gifted nor a wolf, all you would get out of my death is ordinary blood.

So excluding myself, since I think Eomer is a wolf hiding in that group they got either Abercrombie or Formendacil. I'm more inclined to believe Formendacil at this point, because Formendacil doesn't post a whole lot and doesn't give us a lot to go off of.

Anyway those are my thoughts assuming that if Sauce was innocent those were the people who would have been killed by the wolves yesterday. At this point, I think this was the case, if Sauce is innocent the wolves would more likely try to lynch him then wanting to kill him.

So, if arctic's innocent and the wolves are trying to set him up...
Mormegil
Sauce
Cailin
Azaelia
Marcolie

So who would have been the most likely target here? I'm too suspicious of Sauce, Azaelia and Marcolie right now, they may very well be a wolf amongst them. Again, I don't think Sauce would have been one killed yesterday, because one he's either a wolf, or two he's innocent and to kill him would be too dangerous. They wouldn't wish to kill Sauce until he becomes a bigger thorn in their side (meaning catching a wolf).

So, Cailin or mormegil....hmmm I'm stumped here. I'm leaning more toward morm. Who can be a problem for the wolves, but right now he's left a small suspicion trail, and maybe wrong on his suspects, definitely on atleast one of them (Perky and arctic)

If Azaelia was being framed...

Those who suspected her...
Sauce
arcticstorm

Hmm, much smaller list to chose from. I've already said my thoughts on why Sauce probably didn't meet new buds yesterday (though he may very well already had friends). arctic, would be a choice similar to why the wolves would chose morm. If he was innocent, so far he's left not much of a trail to follow, I think he's wrong in a lot of his suspects, although there probably is a wolf in there (Suspects: Alcarillo, Azaelia, Wilwa, morm).

So, that leaves probably targets as:

Formendacil
Mormegil
arcticstorm

Though, I most likely will not go for who the ex-cursed was today, much more interested in finding a wolf, but if that helps anyone, maybe more light can be shed on the matter.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, my thoughts on the other villagers will have to wait, because I think that we have found a Wolf. Nay, I do not think. I am certain of it.

Eomer of the Rohirrim is a Wolf. He always has been.

I know that I said that this was not a Day for hasty accusations and early votes, but with such certainty in my mind, I have no alternative but to set out the case against him so that others will hopefully see what I am now able to see.

He seized on my early suspicions of Formendacil on Day 1 and tried to create a bandwagon against someone who was not here to defend himself. When he saw that, quite sensibly, many villagers were prepared to give Formendacil the benefit of the doubt, he backtracked and categorised Formendacil’s early vote as a ploy, designed to stir things up. He claimed to have fallen for it himself. Of course, he had. That’s why he had to quickly backtrack.

When I called him out on it, he was all very amiable about it and pointed back to his earlier claim to have “rumbled” Formendacil’s ploy.

Nothing much changed concerning the Formendacil situation. Yet, on Day 2, Eomer came out fighting. He claimed that I had been picking on him. As I have already made clear, I had been doing no such thing. I had merely questioned why he was backtracking on his earlier suspicions of Formendacil. An entirely reasonable question to ask, I believe, and it featured among a number of thoughts concerning possible Wolfish behaviour that I expressed that Day.

My initial reaction was to believe Eomer innocent but misguided, because I felt that a Wolf would not take such an extreme position in response to what was simply a request on my part for him to explain his behaviour further. And when Boro (pretty much out of the blue) and then Azaelia followed suit and voted for me, I (wrongly I now believe) assumed that one of them was a Wolf, trying to use Eomer’s misguided but innocent (as I saw it then) accusation against me to get me lynched and then use that to go against Eomer.

But that was not the case. I had it right when I pointed out that Eomer’s early vote for me had put me in a precarious position. He had to come out strongly against me because, to have any chance of getting me lynched that Day, he had to pin me with the first vote of the Day. And he hoped that people’s seeming natural distrust of one, such as me, who is so vocal, would attract me a few more votes, possibly sufficient to condemn me. He nearly succeeded.

A bold move for a Wolf, definitely. But, as long as others voted for me, he would be in a position to deflect the criticism of me onto those others. Eomer is one of the villagers present who is more than capable of pulling that off.

Then there is the small matter of certain things that have been said concerning Eomer which convince me of his guilt. Unfortunately, I do not feel able to elaborate on this, but I hope (from his earlier comment) that Boro at least will know what I mean.

And the icing on the cake is Eomer’s vehement attack to-Day on Cailin (who is one of the villagers I suspect the least) based on the flimsiest of evidence. He has seized on a comment by Cailin which I regard as fairly innocuous (and most certainly not Wolfish). Cailin was merely saying that, in her opinion, Eomer was unlikely to have launched such a strong attack on me if he is innocent, but was more likely to have done so if he is a Wolf. Sentiments which I now agree with. He backs this up by asserting that Cailin’s suspicions of him are unfounded and that she is merely accusing him of being a Wolf without evidence to back her accusations up. Not so. Cailin has outlined why she suspects Eomer on a number of occasions. And if she suspects you so strongly, Eomer, she is quite within her rights to call you a Wolf. As I am doing now.

Eomer’s attack on Cailin is another bold move, particularly as she has not come under much suspicion. Again, however, it is something that Eomer would feel he had a good chance of pulling off. He also links Cailin and me, presenting a possible Wolf pairing to the village. A move, no doubt, designed to divert votes away from those who actually are Wolves. And also, I believe, there is some desperation creeping in as he is concerned that he is in danger of having his Wolfish nature unmasked to-Day (and I sincerely hope that it is). A bold move, therefore, for desperate times.

One further piece of evidence against Eomer. He makes very few accusations. Indeed, he makes one accusation per Day and sticks with it. Similarly, he has rarely, if at all, expressed a view on who he feels able to trust. Save for those he targets, he is leaving very little in the way of a trail.

So I’m going to make a bold move and vote right now.

++ EOMER OF THE ROHIRRIM

If Eomer is not a Wolf, I will eat my axe. Though I doubt I shall need to as, in the unlikely event that he proves innocent, I shall be facing the lynch mob. So be it. I am prepared to take that risk, as I am certain that I am right on this.

And I fully accept that this early vote is likely to attract a few votes for me to-Day. if I end up being lynched to-Day, I will be proven innocent, and you will know who to go against to-Morrow.

I would add that I doubt that more than one Wolf voted for me yester-Day, although it is possible. Nevertheless, my firm belief in Eomer’s guilt assuages my suspicions of Boro (further) and Azaelia.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Great Googly Moogly! There might be just the two options today, people. Let's see, let's see why Saucepan Man suspects me.

In between my initial suspicion of Formendacil and my retraction of that suspicion, a grand total of one villager (Cailín) suggested that suspicion of Formendacil was unwarranted. So when SpM states that 'many villagers' would not follow me and that that's what caused me to change my mind, he is lying. You see, because many and one are not quite the same thing now, are they Saucy? So that's one lie.

He says that I am unfairly accusing SpM of 'picking on me'. But I'll let the village be the judge; recall that SpM freely admitted to being antagonistic with me. Maybe 'picking on' is the wrong phrase as it implies a certain degree of uniqueness. Let's just call it bullying, shall we?

Apparently, I had to pin SpM with the first vote of the Day. Why? I could see that Perky Ent was being harrassed a great deal and that he would be a certain candidate for lynching. I actually had very little hope that we would be able to lynch you on Day Two. It didn't concern me, I wanted to get these thoughts in the air immediately. O, and my early vote said nothing as I didn't know that I would be back to hear your defence. I was only able to make one quick post later that Day.

SpM also suspects me because I do not say whom I trust. Get this: I don't trust anyone. I have absolutely no reason to.

By the way SpM, I've already outlined exactly why Cailín's arguments do not work. The two of you are pulling off a perfect little wolvish trick. I know very well you two have the trust of the village and that I don't; but I don't care. You two will not last. Whether it's today or tomorrow or the day after that, this village is going to kill you. Whether I'm there to see it is really irrelevant. The village still has the numbers advantage; they can afford to make one more mistake. Killing me would be that mistake. However, I would not criticise the village for choosing so. Your treachery is going to shock them.

++THE SAUCEPAN MAN

To the village and excluding The Saucepan Man, Cailín and their two allies: I have absolutely no idea what plan they will follow after this evening's execution. I also have no idea who the other two wolves are. So I apologise for not being able to give more help.

It's on the edge of a knife.

[mormegil]

This is highly interesting and fits perfectly into what I would expect to see from Eomer and SpM. If Eomer was an original wolf, as I suspect, and SpM is the fourth wolf, as I suspect, I had anticipated seeing both of them going at each other. This seems counterintuitive but I shall attempt to explain.

On DAY 2 Eomer went after SpM with much 'passion', I think he did this because he was hoping to get some support for lynching SpM. Let's face it we all want to trust him but we are all afraid to do it too. So Eomer played on this fear and set the wheels in motion. Hoping to pull off the double-bluff Eomer and his cohorts attacked SpM at night, but to their great surprise he was cursed as is now one of them.

Now the question would be: "What do we do now?" For Eomer letting go of SpM would be too obvious and SpM giving up on Eomer would be too easy as well. So they came to an agreement that basically states that they would continue to go after one another, each voting for the other early on thus one getting killed today. What this would do is basically make it so that if Eomer is killed and proven wolf we all assume SpM is innocent and the same is true if we produce a guilty SpM then Eomer looks innocent. Because, certainly wolves wouldn't go after each other, would they? Of course they would, and in this case they had little to no choice. They are content to sacrifice one so the others innocence is assured. Also what this pulls off is that I suspect our seer dreamt early on about SpM and if Eomer is lynched (which is more likely) then with an "innocent" SpM the seer will have no need to dream of him again thus solidifying his victory.

This may seem a bit far fetched but really it's not unlikely. I've noticed a change in posture of SpM that is very uncharacteristic of him and I think he's trying to adjust to his new role as a werewolf and is experiencing some growing pains.

Now I still believe Alcarillo to be guilty. But SpM was right about Eomer when he said that he left no trail to follow. So his loss wouldn't be as damaging, overall to the WW team, as the loss of others would be.

I don't know how Cailin fits in this, my opinion is she's simply an innocent bystander that found some of Eomer's behavior rather suspicious and decided to attack.

[The Saucepan Man]

:D

There might be just the two options today, people.And that might not be a bad thing to-Day. It might flush out one or two more Wolves, unless you have already agreed that, if necessary, they should sacrifice you. Personally, I have no fear of death. I am not gifted, so my death would not be the worst choice the village could make. There would still be one more chance to get it right.

You see, because many and one are not quite the same thing now, are they Saucy? So that's one lie.No. Not a lie at all. You see, I had stated that that Formendacil looked most supicious on the basis of the criteria that I stated at the outset, and there had been some questions raised on those criteria - Shelob and Marcolie both queried them, as well as Cailin. Indeed, I had interpreted Marcolie as having queried Abercrombie questioning of Formendacil's early vote. I must admit that I had thought that mormegil had expressed agreement of Cailin's words of caution on Formendacil before you started backtracking. But, looking back now, I see that was not the case.

But it matters not. The fact is you did backtrack. And you did so because you worked out (or were at least concerned), on the basis of the comments made in the intervening period, that a bandwagon against Formendacil was unlikely to start gathering serious momentum and that you might end up looking suspicoous for your early accusation.

But I'll let the village be the judge; recall that SpM freely admitted to being antagonistic with me. Maybe 'picking on' is the wrong phrase as it implies a certain degree of uniqueness. Let's just call it bullying, shall we?I am more than happy to let the village be the judge of whether I was "bullying" you on Day 1, as patently I was not.

It's on the edge of a knife.Not quite yet. Your death would rid the village of a Wolf. My death would at least help the village to make the right decision to-Morrow.

[The Saucepan Man]

... and SpM giving up on Eomer would be too easy as well.I might remind you, mormegil, that I ended up yester-Day believing Eomer to be the innocent "patsy" of either Boro or Azaelia. Had I been transformed over-Night, then the sensible course would have been to continue in that vein.

Edit: I agree, however, that the Seer probably dreamed of me on Night 1 or 2 but, unfortunately, can no longer fully trust me now as s/he could before.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Zali, why I had 'felt' you suspicious is well summerized by Sauce


Azaelia - for posting relatively frequently but saying very little. And for voting for me, on very shaky grounds, and thereby trying to eliminate both me and Eomer from the game.

However, since then I have changed my mind, reading today and find you to be one of lesser suspision, mostly through a better logical mind, but also very importantly because of more suspicion on Sauce.



Morm - I'd be inclinded to trust him before last night, however I think he'd have been one of the likelier victims of the wolves if they choose to try to set someone up. I don't think Morm is one of the original wolves.

Formendacil- too quiet, suspicious for that in itself. I don't think Form is the forth wolf, but possibly one of the three trying to stay inactive.

Wilwarin-attracted suspision but never acted on, voted for Perky twice which could point either towards an innocent convinced, or a wolf trying to eliminate a danger who ended up being more. Very unlikely the fourth wolf but suspisions lie upno Wilwarin for being one of the original three.

Saucepan Man- I hadn't suspected Sauce before today, but between going so strong today saying he was innocent, as well as the bantering and arguing, even leading to voting, between Eomer and him have me convinced at least one is a wolf.

Eomer- Like Sauce suspisions on Eomer are largely increased today. The logic against Cailin and going as far as saying Cailin is a wolf seems very wolvish, but at the same time seems too risky. Eomer is on the top of my suspect list now, but also seems like an innocent drawn to go all out.

Arcticstorm-Like Wilwarin has attracted suspision that has since fallen off.

Alcarillo-Another quiet one, but not to the degree of Form. Possibly a quiet hidden wolf.

Abercrombie-not attracted much suspision, which is the main reason I'm suspicious of her, either as a ex-cursed, or as a wolf. I wouldn't find Abercrombie suspicious except for it seems like the wolves are always who you least expect. I'll give her the benefit of the doubt for now though.

Marcolie-Looking at suspicious activity yesterday, someone in my place wouldn't be my target if I was a wolf. Following this I am not the ex-cursed.
Most suspicions that lie upon me are because of my vote yesterday. I did so because I had nothing against Perky or Sauce, and hoping to spread votes more. If I was in the same position now I would have voted for Sauce now instead. Reading what I am saying to me makes me look like I'm implying I have some extra knowledge as a seer or something, which I also am not. I am just an ordinary villager and would not like to draw people into false pretense of knowing anything more than them. I agree I look suspicious though.

Azaelia- at the end of yesterday was the most suspicious in my mind. With the growing suspision on those who had convinced me of her guilt before I voted, suspision is dying down. But I won't sit back and forget Azaelia either. I just feel like I have no reason to suspect her now. But this is all relating to the original three wolves. I think this suspect but not over on anyone may be a a good one to have been targetted by the wolves.

Boromir- I stick with my idea of Boro not being one of the original three wolves. Also, not one of the likely to have been targeting for trying to target someone else, but one that'd be more likely to be targetted as someone not very strongly suspected.

Cailin- I stick to the idea of Cailin not being one of the original three, however I think Cailin is alot more likely than Boro to have been the target of the wolves last night, for both not someone very strongly suspcted and someone who could have been used for a set up.

[mormegil]

I might remind you, mormegil, that I ended up yester-Day believing Eomer to be the innocent "patsy" of either Boro or Azaelia. Had I been transformed over-Night, then the sensible course would have been to continue in that vein.

Not completely accurate. This is the post (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=418850&postcount=160) where you said that and it was all part of this DAY. Call me a conspiracy theorist but I see what I said as possible and I want to raise awareness that just because one of you (SpM or Eomer) is guilty doesn't make the other innocent by default.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It's absolutely genius of The Saucepan Man to do exactly what I did (say that Formendacil is suspicious and then think better of it) and manage to criticise me for doing it. Bravo! You are without a doubt the cleverest wolf I have ever heard of; and my grandfather used to tell me tales of all sorts of clever wolves when I was a lad.

Also, Mormegil: You, sir, are very creative. :D

I'm actually quite enjoying this.

[Cailín]

Cailin- I stick to the idea of Cailin not being one of the original three, however I think Cailin is alot more likely than Boro to have been the target of the wolves last night, for both not someone very strongly suspcted and someone who could have been used for a set up.

This only goes if Eomer is indeed innocent - which he is not. He's guilty of both wolvery and trying to poison this village mind. I do agree, I was expecting to be dead today and if I wasn't me and didn't know I'm still alive, I would have definitely thought along the same lines as you there.

So just what does "He would never have attacked SpM were he an innocent" mean, exactly, if not that innocents would not attack SpM?

I think SpM quite explained what I actually meant there. And who knows, maybe I was just trying to express my undying love for The Saucepan Man.

Whether it's today or tomorrow or the day after that, this village is going to kill you (Me and Saucy).

Oh yes, I have no doubt. But which side of the village? I certainly will not let you enjoy to see either of us lynched by our fellow villagers. (I don't know whether to trust Sauce. Maybe I'll attack him tomorrow. But that's not very likely and will certainly not be toDay.)

I'm actually quite enjoying this.

Because you know exactly what is going here. ;)

---

This will not be a surprise.

++EOMER OF THE ROHIRRIM

That's not just a vote. It's a vow. :p

---

I'll have more thoughts on other possible wolves later.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Look at the attention I've drawn to myself – without need.

It's never the obvious choice.

[mormegil]

The Saucepan Man 38
The Perky Ent 23
mormegil 16
Eomer of the Rohirrim 15
Cailín 15
arcticstorm 14
Boromir88 11
Márcolië Lamen 10
Holbytlass 8
wilwarin538 8
AbercrombieOfRohan 8
Alcarillo 7
Azaelia of Willowbottom 6
Formendacil 5
Shelob 5
Gil-Galad 4

This is the current list of all who have posted and how much. A couple of things strike me. Firs is the general lack of posting for Formendacil, a mere 5 posts? Also it raises suspicion of those who are in the middle category such a Alcarillo, Azaelia, Abercrombie, and Wilwarin of the numbers Now there is nothing wrong with being a middle talker but those who don't add to much such as Alcarillo trouble me. Also my impression of Abercrombie is that she is trying to add but mainly following the lead of others. Out of those five I mentioned I am most troubled by Alcarillo and Abercrombie, though if I don't begin to hear at least a little more from Formendacil I will begin to look more his way too. My concern of Márcolië Lamen has remained static and after toDAY's proceedings, barring she isn't lynched, I will look at her again but toDAY is seems as though Eomer and SpM are stealing the spotlight, wanted or unwanted they have it.

[The Saucepan Man]

Gah! What's with all the nitpicking going on in this Village. Not nice, grooming/bonding monkey-style nitpicking. But nasty, malevolent, Wolfish nitpicking. Eomer constructs entire cases against Cailin and I on the basis of one or two (quite possibly ill-chosen) words among many. And now mormegil seems intent on picking me up on everything that I say.

Not completely accurate.In what way was I "not completely accurate"? I said that I ended up yester-Day inclined to think Eomer innocent, and that's the truth. I reiterated my reasoning in this regard first thing to-Day when explaining to Boro why his vote for me yester-Day made me suspect him.

My suspicions of Eomer were actually aroused once again when I reviewed the thread again over-Night (for reasons which I remain reluctant to explain). I wanted to be sure, so I held off outlining my renewed concerns. Subsequent events confirmed Eomer's guilt in my mind.

It's absolutely genius of The Saucepan Man to do exactly what I did (say that Formendacil is suspicious and then think better of it) and manage to criticise me for doing it.The difference is, my furry fiend, that I did so in one and the same post. :p I will remind you exactly of what I said:

Of course, going by my own criteria, Formendacil is looking the most suspicious at present. He outlines suspicions against two Villagers which are tenuous at best (and I would say as much even if I was not one of those that he suspects), and then votes for someone completely different without any shred of an explanation. Yet I am somewhat disinclined to vote for him solely on the basis of that alone when he is not present to explain himself further. He had to vote early and any vote that early on is going to be more or less randomly picked.In my view, a perfectly reasonable comment at that time. I made clear that I was unlikely to be voting for him in circumstances where he was genuinely forced into making an early vote (if he was to vote at all) and was not present to respond.

I'm actually quite enjoying this.I most certainly am not. If I die, the village has to find a Wolf tomorrow, and then has to find three more in short order. And if you die, we still have three more Wolves to find. It does not surprise me that you are the more cheerful of the two of us. :rolleyes: :(

[Boromir88]

My suspicions of Eomer were actually aroused once again when I reviewed the thread again over-Night (for reasons which I remain reluctant to explain). I wanted to be sure, so I held off outlining my renewed concerns. Subsequent events confirmed Eomer's guilt in my mind.~SpM
I explained that very reason today, which gets me pretty confident in my vote today. If he turns out to be a wolf, then I look at you in a more favorable light Sauce.
I got a bad feeling about Eomer, if you want to know scrounge through posts yesterday and try to find it. I wish to not incriminate anyone.~My second to last post yesterday.

++Eomer

[Formendacil]

Hmm.... I be seeing my name a good deal on today's portion of the thread, but t'is not all in good cheer. Many seem to think that my "quietness" is a mark of evil.

Well, so be it. There is naught that I can do about that. I post in spurts, usually in one or two larger dollops. I cannot remain glued to this situation, even if my death is at stake. There are greater things than Werewolves in this world...

That said, it seems to have, for today, boiled down to a Saucepan/Eomer contest. Which is the Werewolf?

Prior to today, I would have said that Sauce was the more likely Werewolf. His entire mode seemed more aggressive, as well as more threatening to me (the only innocent of whom I am certain). Eomer, on the other hand, seemed like a greater voice of reason- and incidentally less threatening to my own state of health.

However, these positions seem to be reversed today. Today it is Eomer who is playing the aggressive, threatening, possible Wolf, and Sauce who is remaining more quiet.

Of the two, Sauce's voting record is more incriminating. He voted for Perky two days consecutively. That's either the sign of having picked up on a definite mark, or of an innocent villager with an idea of Werewolf on his mind.

Eomer's vote is a bit more difficult to fathom, and I hesitate to make an predictions based on it, at this time.

Of the two, I am inclined to think Eomer the Werewolf at this time.

But I shall save my vote for a later hour.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

My vote is difficult to fathom? I have voted for SpM twice in a row now, for reasons which I have outlined clearly.

And Formendacil, you know that I haven't played reasonably and then aggressively. I've been reasoned and aggressive for two straight days now. Ever since I found that wolf.

And what's this? Boromir88 votes for Eomer and offers no reason!

The fun and games continue! :D

Edit to add: Sorry, sorry, sorry. No apparent reason. There is a reason lurking somewhere in his posts but I can't find it.

[Formendacil]

My vote is difficult to fathom? I have voted for SpM twice in a row now, for reasons which I have outlined clearly.

And Formendacil, you know that I haven't played reasonably and then aggressively. I've been reasoned and aggressive for two straight days now. Ever since I found that wolf.

And what's this? Boromir88 votes for Eomer and offers no reason!

The fun and games continue! :D

It is difficult to fathom simply because we do not know whether or not Sauce is a Werewolf or not. Of course, knowing that wouldn't necessarily clear things up, but in light of today's showdown between the two of you, I think it would pretty clearly exonerate you if he were to be a Werewolf.

If, on the other hand, Saucepan Man is innocent, then the implication would be very clear that you were likely a Werewolf.

Of course, there could still remain the great tragedy of two innocents playing off each other...

That last possibility is what scares me...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Don't think it's wolvishly cruel of me to say this, but if both Eomer and SpM are innocent I will not be able to stop myself from laughing at the absurdity of it all (from beyond the grave, of course).

[mormegil]

Don't think it's wolvishly cruel of me to say this, but if both Eomer and SpM are innocent I will not be able to stop myself from laughing at the absurdity of it all (from beyond the grave, of course).

Yes that would be rather ironic wouldn't it.

Now, I have yet to make up my mind in this whole debate of Eomer and SpM. I don't know if one is guilt, both are guilty or neither are guilty. However I would like to add another name to the mix. The person I strongly feel is a wolf is Alcarillo. I would like to see voting close between all 3 candidates for today. But it's appearing that Eomer is in the lead currently. My gut tells me that it's highly unlikely that there isn't a wolf among these three so

++ALCARILLO

[Boromir88]

And what's this? Boromir88 votes for Eomer and offers no reason!~Eomer
Aye, but I did offer a reason. You just have to look for it. As I said in post 161
I got a bad feeling about Eomer, if you want to know scrounge through posts yesterday and try to find it. I wish to not incriminate anyone.
Don't you know also, if you do turn out to be innocent we know who two wolves are.
Now, I have yet to make up my mind in this whole debate of Eomer and SpM. I don't know if one is guilt, both are guilty or neither are guilty.~mormegil
I think tomorrow's death will shed more light on the matter. I agree in what you said earlier that if Eomer does turn out to be a wolf we shouldn't automatically say Sauce and Cailin are innocent. Depending on who's killed next by the wolves, will shed more light on whether they are both innocent, both guilty, or one-one.
The person I strongly feel is a wolf is Alcarillo.
It would appear so, but it just seems to obvious and you have to ask would a wolf be that obvious? Only two reasons can explain Alcarillo's voting behavior, he's an innocent convinced by argument, doesn't have a lot of time to get on, so can't really come up with anything, or he's a wolf. I just don't think a wolf would be this obvious, but you have to question it.

[wilwarin538]

I suppose its voting time then. I personaly am not suspicious of SpM, and only slightly of 'Mer. Since I was only really suspicious of Perky beofre now there isn't really anyone I have been suspicious of before now. So I will vote for:

++Alcarillo

Mainly because there isn't any one else I could think to vote for and I don't want to get on the Eomer bandwaggon incase he is innocent. I would rather not give myself more suspicion by doing so.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Who could possibly vote for Eomer? He's so loveable...

I'll take my death for the good of the village, though. Think better of me if it turns out that way. At least I recognise that the village will be in extremely good stead tomorrow.

I dislike admitting to stupidity but I don't understand you Boromir. I know it sounds like it's dangerous for anyone to press you on your reasoning but I really don't realise why you're voting for me. Couldn't you be more straight-forward and gladden my heart just a little bit? If not then don't. The wolves will be scrabbling for clues everywhere.

And to ease my situation somewhat, I am now going to spend what seems likely to be my last few hours at a ceilidh. I'll try and have fun. :)

Until next time...

[Márcolië Lamen]

I'll take my death for the good of the village, though. Think better of me if it turns out that way. At least I recognise that the village will be in extremely good stead tomorrow.

Assuming you are innocent, a death of an innocent for the good of the village? Doesn't make sense.

I would be voting for Eomer now but I'm afraid of bandwagoning... so instead I'll hold off on voting to see if another innocent vote would be needed for strategy of weeding out the wolves.

[The Saucepan Man]

I know that I am usually one for spreading out the votes, but I would suggest that those villagers who are innocent cast their vote either for Eomer or for me. Because, if neither of us is eliminated, we are going to go through this whole Eomer v SpM thing again to-Morrow. And, if to-Day's lynchee turns out to be innocent, you cannot afford to make a mistake to-Morrow.

To-Day, you can afford to make a mistake. That mistake would be to vote for me, but at least it would point you in the right direction for to-Morrow. So, I would rather that you cast your vote for me than for someone who may well turn out to be innocent and then have to go through this whole thing again to-Morrow. Of course, I would advise you to vote for Eomer, but it is for you to make up your minds.

I think that it's a fairly safe bet, from your point of view, that either Eomer or SpM is a Wolf, so I would counsel you to choose between us.

Incidentally, I would not be quite so forthright in offering this advice if I strongly suspected Alcarillo, the only other candidate for lynching who has been put forward so far to-Day. But I have no reason to strongly suspect Alcarillo, other than for his quietness. And that's a trait shared by a number of villagers. I would regard a vote for Alcarillo to-Day as risky.

[Formendacil]

Curious...

By his suggestion here that this be a two-way race, Saucepan Man is either very craftily and wolfishly saving his own skin, while pretending to look innocent, knowing that the wind is blowing Eomer's way. On the other hand, it could be an honest attempt to help straighten things out, and lead to a victory by us villagers over the Werewolves...

I am still not decided as to which way to vote, but I agree that we should keep it between Saucepan Man and Eomer, for the sake of simplifying tomorrow's ramifications.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

AbercrombieofRohan - Someone who has not attracted much suspicion yet, but we should not forget about. She did not vote the first day, but claimed she would have voted Perky (not really such a great excuse now, huh?) and steadily votes for Perky the next day.

Ahem, read again Cailin, I voted for articstorm.

Abercrombie-not attracted much suspision, which is the main reason I'm suspicious of her, either as a ex-cursed, or as a wolf. I wouldn't find Abercrombie suspicious except for it seems like the wolves are always who you least expect. I'll give her the benefit of the doubt for now though.

I would call your attention to this:

Day 1:

Eomer and AbercrombieOfRohan both jumped on Formendacil's case, after Saucepan Man mentioned his suspicions of him. Are they werewolves trying to subtly lead the village into lynching an innocent?-Cailin

Abercombie also seems to have been following along with my train of thought to an extent. This unnerves me, since I am worried that one or both of them may be trying to identify themselves with me. -SPM

You said that you do not trust me because I am an asset to the Village and because I seem to be trying to weed out the Wolves. An innocent mistake - or a Freudian slip? -SPM

Well, if they don't vote, I shall expect explanations from Abercrombie and Arcticstorm tomorrow. -SPM

And so on and so forth... I take it you catch my meaning? I have been suspected, perhaps not as much as say, articstorm or Saucepan Man, but I still have.

Also, what kind of suspicion is suspecting someone because they haven't garnered any suspicion? Is it my fault that I haven't gained suspicion? Shall I put some more suspicion on myself? I'm just pointing out that it seems ridiculous to suspect someone because they've been ignored. Not that I want suspicion, but hey, I don't particularly want to act cobblerish and get myself lynched over here.

On to the SPM/Eomer thing:

I think both of them are wolves and they are attempting to pull off one of the old "go for each other's jugulars to avoid suspicion if one of us get's lynched" things. They've alternated suspicion, yesterday was SPM's day and today is Eomer's, but unfortunatley for them, it appears one of them will probably get lynched today. Unless some new evidence comes to light, I shall probably vote for one of them today.

[Cailín]

Ahem, read again Cailin, I voted for articstorm.

Sorry, AoR... My mistake.

I have to say you seem rather insulted by the attacks on you, while there is simply not anyone here who has not at least gathered some sort of suspicion. Be careful.

Eomer's vote is a bit more difficult to fathom, and I hesitate to make an predictions based on it, at this time.

Of the two, I am inclined to think Eomer the Werewolf at this time.

But I shall save my vote for a later hour.

I'd ask you, Form, and any other innocent villager still holding their votes to please make a decision soon. The longer you hold your votes, the more chance the wolves have of manipulating the voting so it will go their own way. Also, SpM has it right toDay. One of them has to go and spreading out the votes will not be very helpful - we might lose another innocent and be in the exact same situation tomorrow.

The wolves know who they can trust. We do not. They have that as a major advantage. Do you honestly believe there is anything anyone could still say toDay to make you trust either Eomer or SpM? I don't think so. Except, perhaps, a straightforward comment from the Seer, but that is not very likely to happen. Follow your instincts here, because SpM and Eomer are admittedly both strong players with clever reasoning abilities.

They are not both innocents. They have not been furry pals from the beginning. It is highly unlikely they are both wolves, though they may be trying to clear each other by having us lynch one of them today. So what? At least we'll have caught a wolf.

I know I have nothing solid to back this up. *dramatic sigh* But whatever the turn out tonight, I will die for it. What more can I give than my life?

You'll never hear me say this again. But please. Join the bandwagon. ;)

Who could possibly vote for Eomer? He's so loveable...

I know, we're all having a hard time. :p

[Márcolië Lamen]

There is good in voting for a suepct that is going to be repeatedly taking attention away from everyone else, even if it does cause a type of bandwagoning. But at tghe same time, it'd require a loss of a day of trail for the wovles, since they could easily have followed 'innocently' in the bandwagoning. Do not vote for Eomer or Saunce if you don't feel them, but instead feel another guilty. It'd just lead to over the top bandwagoning. However, more importantly, if you feel them guilty do not hesistate to vote either.
So with that I must vote for who I truely feel guilty
++Eomer

[Boromir88]

I dislike admitting to stupidity but I don't understand you Boromir. I know it sounds like it's dangerous for anyone to press you on your reasoning but I really don't realise why you're voting for me.~Eomer
You'll see all in good time, all in good time, though you might not live to see why.
The wolves know who they can trust. We do not.
And you never want to trust someone that says trust me. So, Cailin...trust me. :p

Votes so far:

Eomer (4)
Sauce
Cailin
Boromir
Marcolie

Alcarillo (2)
Mormegil
wilwarin

Sauce (1)
Eomer

With...Azaelia, arctic, Formendacil, Alcarillo, Abercrombie left to vote.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Might as well join the bandwagon.

++Eomer

Also, Cailin, I didn't mean for you to think I was insulted. It was more along the lines of mock horror/sacrcasm. I suppose I should've added a smiley or two...

[arcticstorm]

I have been looking at the evidence and I might as well vote for
++Eomer

[Formendacil]

I'd ask you, Form, and any other innocent villager still holding their votes to please make a decision soon. The longer you hold your votes, the more chance the wolves have of manipulating the voting so it will go their own way. Also, SpM has it right toDay. One of them has to go and spreading out the votes will not be very helpful - we might lose another innocent and be in the exact same situation tomorrow.

Well, I'm flattered to know you believe me innocent. Such a statement is hard to come by in these troubled times. Do not fear for the manipulation of my vote. I shall vote how I want to, when I want to, with little fear of being too badly manipulated.

As of this time, however, Eomer already has what is essentially a convicting vote: 6 out of 12, and no retractable votes allowed.

I'm going to stick with my older gut feeling and vote ++Saucepan Man, though it does no good (or evil) now. I still think him the more likely suspect, on whole. The Eomer bandwaggon, although it FEELS right, doesn't seem to have as much SUBSTANCE behind it as it ought...

[mormegil]

I believe with those two votes from Artic and AoR, Eomer will be lynched today. I truly hope that we bagged a wolf today and don't loose any gifted tonight. However, only time will tell. I still would like to see Formendacil and Alcarillo vote today.

Cross posted with Formendacil--thanks for the vote

[mormegil]

Sorry for the double post but I was wanting to know who people think the other wolves are, assuming Eomer is a wolf of course. I suspect most

Marcolie
Alcarillo
SpM

others to a lesser extent but I think this list may prove helpful if we get it from enough people.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK. Now that voting’s more or less done, it seems a good opportunity to set out my thoughts on the remaining villagers. Of course, this will be a complete waste of time and effort if Eomer turns out to be innocent, because you’re all going to lynch me to-Morrow. But that ain’t gonna happen ‘cos (unless I have been taken for a true fool, in which case I deserve to die) Eomer is as guilty as they come.

So, these thoughts are predicated on Eomer’s guilt.

Cailin: For her part in helping us to nail Eomer, I believe her to be innocent. Could have been the Cursed, but her behaviour to-Day speaks strongly against it.

Boromir88: I suspected him yester-Day, but my suspicions have greatly been reduced. Largely because he seems to have spotted the same thing that I did in connection with Eomer. But also because I don’t think that two Wolves voted for me yester-Day and I don’t think that a Wolf would have voted for another Wolf at the stage at which Boro voted for Eomer to-Day.

Mormegil: I have a strong feeling that he was the Cursed and is now a fully paid up member of the fangs and fur club. He would have been a good choice for the Wolves last Night, as he had attracted little suspicion and is a shrewd player - er - villager. He seemed helpful in the first 2 Days, and has continued to try to give that appearance. But his nitpicking of me to-Day got me worried. And his suggestion that both Eomer and I were Wolves, with one of us having been the Cursed, would be a perfect ploy to divert from his own formerly Cursed nature and also to keep suspicion of me up to-Morrow with one Wolf down to-Day. His vote for Alcarillo rang alarm bells with me too. With it being odds on that either Eomer or I was a Wolf, and even the innocent one’s death being of help, it was sensible to keep the voting between the two of us to-Day, rather than brining in alternative candidates, particularly ones like Alcarillo with little in the way of strong evidence against them.

Wilwarin: Another Wolf. She has been from the start. Throughout, she has said very little, and nothing much of substance at all. Yester-Day and to-Day, she made no accusations other than of the ones she voted for. Her grief for Perky (the oh crap and all that) seemed over done to me. She introduced the plan of looking for the new Wolf by trying to second guess the Wolves’ choice of victim, a plan that seemed to me to be designed to divert us away from the evidence before our eyes concerning the original Wolves to-Day. And she voted for Alcarillo to-Day, so the same reasoning applies in that regard as with mormegil.

Marcolie Lamen: I did suspect her quite strongly, and still believe that she may still be a Wolf. Her vote for Eomer could have been a Wolf-on-Wolf vote, sacrificing the doomed Eomer in an effort to establish innocent credentials.

Abercrombie: Not a lot to go on. But seemed over-sensitive to Cailin’s oversight and suggestion that she had not been under suspicion. Seized on wilwa’s plan to look for the fourth Wolf with relish. Again, vote for Eomer could have been a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Arcticstorm: After yester-Day’s fiasco with Perky, I was inclined to think him probably innocent. But he has said very little of help to-Day. His vote for Eomer could have been a Wolf-on-Wolf vote, but, as it condemned Eomer to the lynch mob, I am doubtful. If he was a Wolf, it would have been sensible to wait to see if someone else condemned Eomer, and then vote for him. Unsure, but still inclined to view favourably.

Formendacil: I really don’t know. He has said little, but what he has lacked in quantity, he has made up for with quality. He also pushed wilwa’s Wolf 4 search party idea, but his vote for me to-Day makes him less suspicious in my eyes. With Eomer condemned, a Wolf would surely have looked to put in a Wolf-on-Wolf vote, rather than voting for one who is soon (I hope) to be shown to have been one of those instrumental in getting said Wolf lynched.

Alcarillo: Very little to go on, but I do not see any evidence really that speaks of his guilt. He voted for Gil on Day 1 and Perky on Day 2, but it is inevitable that innocents will end up voting for other innocents, especially in the early stages. His late vote for Gil on Day 1 (effectively to condemn him) speaks in his favour as far as I am concerned, since I still believe that the Wolves would have wanted to keep Gil around for a few Days to take the heat off them.

Azaelia: As with Boro, I suspected her yester-Day for her vote for me. But I’m fairly sure that only one Wolf voted for me yester-Day, which makes her a lot less suspicious in my eyes. Very similar to wilwa in having contributed little of substance. But, whereas I believe that wilwa could get stuck in if she wanted to, I suspect that this is just Azaelia’s style. In any event, it is highly doubtful that both Azaelia and wilwa are Wolves, since they would avoid acting so similarly. And, to my mind, the evidence against wilwa looks stronger than the evidence against Azaelia.

So, my top suspects are mormegil (as the fourth Wolf) and wilwarin. Not really sure about the remaining Wolf, but Abercrombie and Marcolie Lamen seem possible candidates.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Azaelia: As with Boro, I suspected her yester-Day for her vote for me. But I’m fairly sure that only one Wolf voted for me yester-Day, which makes her a lot less suspicious in my eyes. Very similar to wilwa in having contributed little of substance. But, whereas I believe that wilwa could get stuck in if she wanted to, I suspect that this is just Azaelia’s style.


Ouch, Sauce, ouch. Thanks for holding such a high opinion of me. :p

Well! A lot has changed since I was last here.

I have thought and re-thought and have reached the conclusion that there is nothing I can do now, anyway...

++Eomer .

I hope we've caught a wolf today.

[The Saucepan Man]

Ouch, Sauce, ouch. Thanks for holding such a high opinion of me.I meant it in the nicest possible way. ;)

[mormegil]

Sauce just so you know what you consider nitpicking I found rather material. You claimed that you found Eomer to be a patsy at the end of the day yester DAY, however the quote came from this morning. The difference being if you were the fourth wolf you would have knowledge today you didn't yesterday. Therefore you tried to change your story, but when you say it didn't work you went back to attacking Eomer. Now I don't know if my theory is correct but I want it to be considered.

You of all people should understand the importance of minutia ;)

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I meant it in the nicest possible way. ;)

But of course! :D

And just to make this *not* a total nothing post, I do apologize for my lack of participation. I have a lot going on during RL days. (though, happily, I am able to participate once work is over in the evenings). I know I haven't been contributing much, and wish I was.

[The Saucepan Man]

Mormegil, just to be clear on this:

But it is clear to me that either Boromir88 or Azaelia is a Wolf, for their subsequent votes for me. What an opportunity for the Wolves to rid themselves of one thorn in their side (me) while implicating another (Eomer). It's unlikely that both are, as that would be risky, but it's a possibility.I may have used the word "patsy" to-Day, but the theory was the same.

[Holbytlass]

After the shock of another one being bitten and having evil course throught their veins, the villagers couldn't face each other yet. Paranoia lay heavy like the storm clouds over the island. It was bad enough that there were three to begin with but now somebody who was on their side had defected.

Some worked in the fields scything off the wheat and barley heads imagining them to be wolf-heads. Some worked the fishing nets flinging them over the sea wishing they could fling the wolves into the sea. Hammers rang, axes thudded, pens scratched, all trying to purge themselves through sweat and tears of their pain and hatred.

A wicked but necessary routine had integrated itself into village life. Time had come again to accuse, defend and vote. Two had risen in suspicion thanks to the finger pointing of each other. In the end, Eomer of the Rohirrim-purveyor of mystical oddments, garnered the most votes. Trepidation filled the villagers' souls, they had to kill a wolf, they needed to kill a wolf, but are they today?

The villagers took a moment to think how they were going to do the deed. Eomer seized the moment, transformed and grabbed one of the young ladies.

"Not one move." Eomer growled as he backed towards the door pulling the miss with him, her large amber eyes pleading for help. Slowly, slowly, still eyeing the others, Eomer made it to the door, then in an instant, shoved the gal towards the people and bolted for the woods.

The people reacted quickly, a couple of them caught the gal, and a bear- like shape darted out the door and threw his axe with precision. Whooh-whooh-whooh, the axe whistled end over end, till it thucked into Eomer-wolf's skull. He fell down dead.

The villagers cautiously walked up to his now human form and nudged it.
"How could such a handsome man do such a thing?"



villagers:8
wolves:3

dead
Holby(mod) clawed from wolves night 1
Gil-Galad(Ordinary)shot by firing squad day1
Shelob(ordinary)killed by wolves jack-o-lantern style night2
The Perky Ent(ranger)executed by his sword day2
cursed villager transformed on night3
Eomer of the Rohirrim(wolf)whacked by lumberjack's axe day3



living
Morm
Formendacil
Wilwarin
Saucepan Man
Arcticstorm
Alcarillo
Abercrombie
Marcolie
Azaelia
Boromir
Cailin


~wolves P.M.
~names from wolves, seer, hunter

[Holbytlass]

Squelching through the misty moisty bog, intermittenly wafting up hot reeky air. Searching, searching, but what is lost? Have to keep looking. Feet sticking, arms reaching for stunted trees to pull free. Gagging on the rotten heat blown on the face. A figure ahead shrouded in mist, with head turned back.

Jerking awake from the dream, the villager felt the hot reeky breath of the wolves standing over them. "It's.......!" But whatever 'it' is was never heard.

Morning came again, the wind biting cold. The villagers made their way past the Inn, through the cemetary, along the river to the easterly side of the island to the home of the missing villager.

There was no need to search. In the front lawn was a large wooden tub filled with water and apples, a figure kneeling into it, no doubt drowned. As the villagers pulled the body gently out, the head lolled back with eyes missing.


villagers:7
wolves:3

dead
Holby(mod) clawed from wolves night 1
Gil-Galad(Ordinary)shot by firing squad day1
Shelob(ordinary)killed by wolves jack-o-lantern style night2
The Perky Ent(ranger)executed by his sword day2
cursed villager transformed on night3
Eomer of the Rohirrim(wolf)whacked by lumberjack's axe day3
Cailin(seer)drowned bobbing for apples with eyes ripped out night 4




living
Morm
Formendacil
Wilwarin
Saucepan Man
Arcticstorm
Alcarillo
Abercrombie
Marcolie
Azaelia
Boromir

[mormegil]

Alas, I feared this would be the fate of Cailin today. I thought it fairly obvious that she were the seer. Notice how at the end I tried to get her, be asking all, to give us their suspicions. I was hoping that she knew at least one more or maybe could shed light on who was innocent. What I don't understand is why Boromir and SpM brought attention to it by saying they weren't going to bring attention to it.

[The Saucepan Man]

So now do you all see why I was so certain that Eomer was a Wolf? Cailin was the Seer. She made good choices with her dreams. She dreamed of me on Night 1 (hence her trust for me) and Eomer on Night 2. I didn't pick it up until Night 3, but the clues are there. Of course, I fully realise that her dream for me is now of little benefit, given the transformation of the confounded Cursed one. But at least it allowed her to trust me for a while.

Cailin, wherever you are, you played your role marvellously and most of the credit for catching Eomer-Wolf must go to you. It is a great shame that it was necessary for you to reveal so much of yourself in the end in order to reveal that cruel beast. You have made a great sacrififice for the benefit of the village. I take my hat off to you. :smokin: :cool: :smokin:

We must find the three remaining Wolves, not just to save ourselves, but to avenge Cailin's cruel death and ensure that her sacrifice was worthwhile.

It would be useful to know who Cailin dreamed about on Night 3. I am sure that the clues are here, in post #176 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=418894&postcount=176).

In the meantime, here's the voting from yester-Day:

Voting:
1. SpM for Eomer (Eomer - 1)
2. Eomer for SpM (Eomer - 1; SpM - 1)
3. Cailin for Eomer (Eomer - 2; SpM - 1)
4. Boromir for Eomer (Eomer - 3; SpM - 1)
5. Mormegil for Alcarillo (Eomer - 3; SpM - 1; Alcarillo - 1)
6. Wilwarin for Alcarillo (Eomer - 3; SpM - 1; Alcarillo - 2)
7. Marcolie Lamen for Eomer (Eomer - 4; SpM - 1; Alcarillo - 2)
8. Abercrombie for Eomer (Eomer - 5; SpM - 1; Alcarillo - 2)
9. Arcticstorm for Eomer (Eomer - 6; SpM - 1; Alcarillo - 2)
10. Formendacil for SpM (Eomer - 6; SpM - 2; Alcarillo - 2)
11. Azaelia for Eomer (Eomer - 7; SpM - 2; Alcarillo - 2)

Did not vote:
Alcarillo

My own thoughts are much the same now as they were when I posted here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=419177&postcount=217) towards the close of Day yester-Day. But I will ponder further.

[The Saucepan Man]

What I don't understand is why Boromir and SpM brought attention to it by saying they weren't going to bring attention to it.And so it begins. Or rather, continues from yester-Day. :rolleyes:

I suspect that Cailin's fate was more likely sealed because others apparently could not see what Boro and I had picked up, and she was therefore forced into saying more than she would have liked in order to nail your fresh acquaintance.

[mormegil]

The wolves know who they can trust. We do not. They have that as a major advantage. Do you honestly believe there is anything anyone could still say toDay to make you trust either Eomer or SpM? I don't think so. Except, perhaps, a straightforward comment from the Seer, but that is not very likely to happen. Follow your instincts here, because SpM and Eomer are admittedly both strong players with clever reasoning abilities.


Saucepan Man - I trusted him yesterDay (which is pretty obvious when you look at the way I voted) and still am pretty much convinced he at least wasn’t an original wolf.

I think this shows one thing and only one thing. SpM was innocent to begin with. It doesn't mean that he didn't turn wolf the other night. Again I want to emphasize that I am not certain that my wacky theory has any merit but I think that we need to recognize that it's possible.

Arcticstorm - I trust arcticstorm far more than yesterDay, but I don’t think he’s entirely cleared just yet. I very much hope he turns out to be a wolf, so we weren’t wrong about everything. On the other hand, he voted for Perky, following me, more or less because I asked him to (yeah, that was an oops), which would be risking thing to do if he were a wolf indeed

Now this looks good for Articstorm, my guess is that she dreamt of him after all of the initial suspicion but didn't want to outright say it. My suspicion of him has lessened but not vanished.


Marcolie - I said I’d be keeping an eye on you, but I failed miserably. I seriously distrust you now, especially since you voted so strangely yesterday. Certainly, Azaelia was on most people’s suspect list by then, especially after Perky bravely decided to reveal himself, but it’s a very easy vote, for you are not suffering from post-Day 2 trauma right now, as most of us secretly are.

This seems pretty close to an accusation. That would mean that Cailin dreamt of SpM, Eomer, Articstorm and Marcolie. Now I could be wrong but this is by far the strongest suggestion she gave besides Eomer.

My suspect list, as of now:

1) Eomer
2) Marcolie / AbercrombieofRohan
3) Wilwa / Boromir
4) Formendacil

Let's keep this in mind while our discussion begins. I think there is wisdom in it. Notice that Marcolie ranked 2nd on the list.

[arcticstorm]

So they got the seer,
I knew that they would find him eventually, unfortunately with the cursed villager caught, not all of the seer's dreams will be able to help us. I tend to concur with Mormegil's choices on the dreams, as they seem to fit. I will be going and analyzing previous events and will let you in on my own two cents worth afyer I examine everything.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK. Why am I not the Cursed Wolf?

1. I took a lead role in slaying the Eomer-Wolf.

2. At the end of Day 2, there was much suspicion surrounding me. It is unlikely that the Wolves would have chosen to target someone who was a reasonable candidate for lynching on Day 3 (and who's death would have at least implicated Eomer). I am sure that Eomer felt that he would have a good chance of turning the village against me, with saubtle help from his buddies. He might have succeeded, but for Cailin having dreamed of him (something of which the Wolves were clearly unaware on Night 3, as they would have gone for her then had they been).

3. Mormegil's "theory" that Eomer and I were both Wolves, sparring with each other so as to establish the innocence of the survivor, does not hold water. As I have repeatedly explained to morm (seemingly to deaf, or more likely, Wolvish, ears), I viewed Eomer as more likely to be the innocent victim of a ploy by either Boro or Azaelia at the end of Day 2. Had I been tranformed over-Night, I would have been much more likely to stick with that approach and take the role of sacrificial Wolf myself, to Eomer's benefit.

In light of this, mormegil put a lot of effort yester-Day into trying to sow the seeds of doubt about me in the minds of the remaining innocent villagers, even though he did not end up voting for me.

I was thinking along the same lines myself. If I were guessing who would have died tonight I would have said that 3 candidates were most likely.

SpM
Eomer
CailinHmm. Who's top of that list, I wonder?

Much of the reason I suspect them has already been stated so I won't repeat that but on SpM onpost 165 he is rather emphatic in his assertion that he is innocent. I believe I counted at least 4 times his expression that he is innocent, a very uncharacteristic thing for SpM to do. This makes me view him as the fourth wolf.I explained the reasons in this regard. The reasoning set out in that post was predicated on my innocence. My innocence was therefore an integral part of the analysis.

This is highly interesting and fits perfectly into what I would expect to see from Eomer and SpM. If Eomer was an original wolf, as I suspect, and SpM is the fourth wolf, as I suspect, I had anticipated seeing both of them going at each other. This seems counterintuitive but I shall attempt to explain.

… For Eomer letting go of SpM would be too obvious and SpM giving up on Eomer would be too easy as well.As I have already explained, I would have been far better off in such circumstances sticking with the theory that I set out at the end of Day 2.

I've noticed a change in posture of SpM that is very uncharacteristic of him and I think he's trying to adjust to his new role as a werewolf and is experiencing some growing pains.I would be interested, morm, if you would cite some examples. To the extent that I did act any differently, it was because (following Cailin's continued strong accusation of Eomer and his attack on her) I became certain of Eomer's guilt and therefore acted accordingly.

I was wanting to know who people think the other wolves are, assuming Eomer is a wolf of course. I suspect most

Marcolie
Alcarillo
SpMBottom of the list now, but the only one remaining from the previous list - just so as to reinforce the suggestion.

You claimed that you found Eomer to be a patsy at the end of the day yester DAY, however the quote came from this morning. The difference being if you were the fourth wolf you would have knowledge today you didn't yesterday. Therefore you tried to change your story, but when you say it didn't work you went back to attacking Eomer.Wrong! As I explained at the end of yester-Day, and again above.

But you see how busy mormegil was yester-Day in laying the groundwork to attack me to-Day, notwithstanding my role in Eomer's death?

Mormegil's vote yester-Day is also extremely suspicious (as is wilwa's). It was clear that either Eomer or SpM was a Wolf. Better to vote for one or the other since, even if the innocent one (ie me) had been lynched, the village would have known who to lynch to-Day. So why vote for Alcarillo, in respect of whom the evidence is circumstantial at best, and certainly no stronger than most other villagers? My guess is that two Wolves voted for Alcarillo and one voted for Eomer (it could have been one for Alcarillo and two for Eomer, but I see that as less likely).

In any event, I am pretty much certain that mormegil is the Wolf formerly known as the Cursed villager.

[Boromir88]

A brave sacrifice my lady Cailin, thankyou in helping us with the wolf you found, and I'm sure this will help us weed out the others. I thought she was going to go today. After her words when I sided with Eomer Day 2 of voting, it was pretty apparent she was the Seer. That's why I was surprised she wasn't killed that Night. I hope this goes to my benefit of now showing people my innocence. I knew she was the Seer before, and I don't care what's the risk, if a wolf spotted the Seer they will have the Seer killed that Night, it's the most dangerous role in the game.

I concur and agree that she did also dream of Sauce. So, that makes me see less suspicious of him. It doesn't mean that he isn't the newly turned wolf, however as I explained yesterday I don't think Sauce would be a target for wolves. They usually don't kill loud-mouths until they become a big thorn in the wolves side, Wolves typically go after possible dangerous players, yet ones that don't leave a big trail to follow.

I will post what I normally do, but here's my thoughts coming into today. Ok, so I think we have one wolf that didn't vote for Eomer (maybe two).

DID NOT VOTE for Eomer:

Mormegil
Wilwarin
Formendacil

All these people look suspicious. I'm more inclined to believe Wilwarin is the wolf here. With Eomer's fate still uncertain she gets the voting within 1 between Eomer and Alcarillo. Plus said basically nothing yesterday except she was sorry for voting for Perky.

I would also attach suspicion to Mormegil and Formendacil. Formendacil's vote seemed like a throw-away, didn't have enough in ya to vote for a fellow wolf? Mormegil's vote is less suspicious, he was pretty suspicious of Alcarillo all day long (as was I). But, both aren't as suspicious as Wilwarin's that came out of the blue...possibly to try to swing the anti-Eomer opposition?

I think we also have probably two wolves that voted for Eomer. At this point I'm more inclined to believe that they were the ones who voted at the end (Marcolie, Abercrombie, arctic, Azaelia) once it was pretty apparent Eomer was going to be hanged.

Marcolie's is less suspicious as it gets Eomer ahead by two, but Abercrombie and arctic's seemed like tagging along to go unsuspected. Azaelia just seemed to vote, to throw off suspicion from herself. Especially when I spotted the only person she really strongly suspected that day was Marcolie. (Though I may have missed something).

Alcarillo's actions just seem way to suspicious to be a wolf. With so much question going to him, I would expect a wolf to say something in his/her defense, Alcarillo seems to go along with the majority, which is a characteristic of a wolf, or an innocent persuaded by arguments.

So my wolves at the moment are: (No real order and subject to change at any moment).

Wilwarin
Azaelia
arctic

I feel pretty confident now that Sauce is innocent. As much as we would think that wolves would go after a "leader" such as Sauce, it typically isn't the case early on. Though, I have been fooled, and it's still possible.

[Boromir88]

What I don't understand is why Boromir and SpM brought attention to it by saying they weren't going to bring attention to it.
Mormegil, I didn't really bring attention to it. The post is there for everyone to read, I basically said if you're interested in wondering why I'm suspicious of Eomer you'll have to look for it. To me it was pretty clear with Cailin and my exchange the night before, Cailin was the Seer and she had dreamed of Eomer. Honestly, I really didn't think we could have been more blatant in that exchange except for declaring that she was the Seer. Which was why I was surprised she wasn't killed that night. With that, I felt a little foolish in following Eomer in his vote for Sauce, but I can't take it back and wasn't going to make the same mistake the next day.

[mormegil]

Hmm. Who's top of that list, I wonder?

Bottom of the list now, but the only one remaining from the previous list - just so as to reinforce the suggestion

My lists have been in no particular order.



I would be interested, morm, if you would cite some examples. To the extent that I did act any differently, it was because (following Cailin's continued strong accusation of Eomer and his attack on her) I became certain of Eomer's guilt and therefore acted accordingly.

One was the assertion of how innocent you are. I know you've explained it but it still seemed odd to me. Another was your most recent post. Why such a strong defense when there has been no attack? The only possible people I could see that would want to defend themselves so emphatically are gifteds and wolves. And I know that you are not a gifted. An innocent shouldn't be so concerned about self-defense. Also your stong defense was interesting because it came after I said this today.

I think this shows one thing and only one thing. SpM was innocent to begin with. It doesn't mean that he didn't turn wolf the other night. Again I want to emphasize that I am not certain that my wacky theory has any merit but I think that we need to recognize that it's possible.

I admit it's a bit far-fetched but possible and I want people to recognize that you are not exonerated simply because you were key in Eomer's lynching. I wasn't anticipating having a showdown with you today, but you are seeming rather intent on it. I must ask myself why? I can't say that what I said about my theory was very offensive so again why are you so defensive?

[The Saucepan Man]

This seems pretty close to an accusation. That would mean that Cailin dreamt of SpM, Eomer, Articstorm and Marcolie.But Cailin only had three dreams before being slaughtered by the Wolves (discounting the dream they interrupted last Night).

Arcticstorm is a possibility, although she did say that he was not entirely cleared yet. My feeling is that, if she dreamed of a Wolf, she dreamed of wilwarin. And if she dreamed of an innocent, she dreamed of Azaelia:

Wilwarin - I think Wilwa might be one of our wolves here. She attracted some suspicion during the last few days, but never quite enough to get her in any real danger. When we started suspecting her, it was together with the other quiet villager Azaelia, but now Azaelia is the only one still really on our radar. It’s hard to explain, but if Azaelia is innocent, I think Wilwarin is definitely someone to look at.

Azaelia - I do not think she’s a wolf. She has been attracting suspicion since Day 1, yesterDay at the end of voting time, everybody suddenly believed her to be furry and evil. Sure, she has a little explaining to do, but I’m one of those crazy ones who think that the more suspicion people attract from the beginning, the more likely they are innocents.It looks the more liekly to me that she dreamed of Azaelia and found her to be innocent. Azaelia would have been a logical choice, given that she was looking very suspicious at the end of Day 2. Also, I directly accused her of being a Wolf, and Cailin would still have fully trusted me at that point. My question is, if Cailin dreamed of the Cursed villager that Night, the Night that the Cursed tranformed, would that person have been revealed to her as an innocent or a Wolf?

Boro, I am pretty confident that you are innocent too. You and I have one suspect in common (wilwarin), but I would ask you to take a close look at mormegil.

[The Saucepan Man]

Another was your most recent post. Why such a strong defense when there has been no attack?Um - that came well after you accused me of having undergone a change in behaviour. :rolleyes:

I would have thought that the answer is obvious. Part of my case against you is your eagerness to point out yester-Day that, even if Eomer was a Wolf, that did not mean that I was innocent and your "whacky" theory involving me as the fourth Wolf sparring with Eomer-Wolf. In order to put that case, I needed to show why it was unlikely that I was the fourth Wolf.

I wasn't anticipating having a showdown with you today, but you are seeming rather intent on it. I must ask myself why?Again, a no-brainer. I believe that you are a Wolf.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Poor Cailin, her sacrifice caught a wolf. Her extreme hinting in the end was a sacrifice for us so we must take it and have at least some innocents suvive because of her sacrifice.

Reading through I must agree, I appear to be a pretty strong possiblility of being dreamed to be a wolf. I won't be able to prove my innocence so if you must lynch me then don't keep me around to take attention away from those truly guilty.

I feel Azalelia to have been the one drempt and shown to be innocent, at least before the wolves got their fourth member.

In terms of SaucepanMan I have been persuaded that he is most likely not the ex-cursed, but I am not sure. We know he wasn't one of the original three at least...and it'd be more likely a quiet one had become the wolf instead of such a leader. We can't make assumptions though.

Most likely one wolf didn't vote for his or her peer and two did. I'd say at least one of these are within the last few to vote because at that point he was unsavable. The last four people were Me, Abercrombie, arctic, and Azaelia. I know I had an excuse to voting late, but it would not persuade anyone of my innocence. I had written up my post and went to submit it and lost wireless for an hour before I was able to actually vote because we were leaving school and I was trying to get it in before we got out of the wireless range.

So I suspect at least one of
Abercrombie and
artic

because they were the only two within the last 4. Possibly Azaelia too if she was not the one drempt of.

on Alcarillo I don't know what to think. The actions seem one of a wolf, but could also be an innocent, and with the little defence I wonder if he hopes people will defend him if he doesn't defend himself...

In terms of wilwarin I feel wolf. Hasn't posted much of value, and partnered with one of the three who didn't vote for Eomer and my theory that one didn't, the most suspicious one becomes even more suspicious.

In terms of Morm I feel a possible ex-cursed. Definitally not one of the original three but as a vicitim makes sense, and hasn't helped at all since we were unfortunately cursed. I wouldn't say I suspect him half as much as I did Eomer yesterday, but I can't cast him off as an innocent.

Boro and Form I suspect to be innocent, Form because of voting for Sauce yesterday instead of a wolf-on-wolf vote. (or was it bluffing?) and Boro because of the overall helpfulness.


High suspision
Wilwarin
Morm

Middle suspision
Arcticstorm
Abercrombie

Middle/Low suspision
Azaelia
Alcarillo
Formendacil
Boromir

Low Suspision
Marcolie
Saucepan Man



I know this will be cross-posted with some so sorry for repetitions

[mormegil]

I hope that no ill comes of this, but I feel that it will help the greater good even though it's likely I will die. I am the Hunter! I attempted to hint to SpM in saying that I know he's not gifted but seemingly he has me stuck in his head as a wolf and won't reconsider :rolleyes: . Now I do this because it will help give some clarity to our councils and cut out this seemingly endless blather about Mormegil being guilty.

In terms of SaucepanMan I have been persuaded that he is most likely not the ex-cursed, but I am not sure. We know he wasn't one of the original three at least...and it'd be more likely a quiet one had become the wolf instead of such a leader. We can't make assumptions though.

This was my goal, I wanted people realize that SpM is not necessarily innocent. I agree it's not likely he's a wolf but let's please keep that in mind that we can't assume.

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

Good try Morm the wolf. But alas! You are not the hunter, because I am! I surely expect to die tonight at the paws of your murderous devious little fellows.

Saucepan, your suspicions of the treachrous deviant are completely based in reason. You've already set out detailed claims of mistrust against Morm, so I shall not repeat them. I cannot stress this enough Do not hesitate to ask for more proof on my part , for I am willing to give. But as of right now, I have quite a lot of studying to be doing and I can't provide it. It is quite clear to me, who at least one wolf is tonight.

[mormegil]

Good try Morm the wolf. But alas! You are not the hunter, because I am! I surely expect to die tonight at the paws of your murderous devious little fellows.


Interesting! Unless our Moddess made a mistake, which isnot likely, your claims of huntership are patently false. I must say that I am glad that I stepped forward because now I know my death will not be in vain, for if I am lynched today I will bring you down with me. But as to your lynching or mine, I will let the village decide that fate.


It is quite clear to me, who at least one wolf is tonight

Quite so my dear!

[The Saucepan Man]

Good grief! Well, there's a turn of events! :eek:

So, unless anyone else comes along and claims to be the Hunter ( :D ), we know for sure that either morm or Abercrombie is a Wolf.

My inclination is to trust Abecrombie. If she was a Wolf, she would surely not claim to be the Hunter simply in reaction to a declaration by a mormegil-Hunter, as she is not in particular danger at this time. Given what has been said so far to-Day, a Wolf-mormegil is more likely to claim to be the Hunter than a Wolf-Abercrombie. Plus I had mormegil pinned as a Wolf in any event.

What do the others think?

[mormegil]

My inclination is to trust Abecrombie. If she was a Wolf, she would surely not claim to be the Hunter simply in reaction to a declaration by a mormegil-Hunter, as she is not in particular danger at this time. Given what has been said so far to-Day, a Wolf-mormegil is more likely to claim to be the Hunter than a Wolf-Abercrombie. Plus I had mormegil pinned as a Wolf in any event.


Oddly this makes me feel that SpM is innocent. Let me explain, I am along with AoR (and her two mates) are the only ones who know the whole truth. I find it difficult that a Wolf-SpM would come to her defense after such a blunder. Because when it is found that I am innocent then we will know AoR is guilty and that would naturally implicate SpM as suspicious. But by his coming to believe in her makes me think he is simply a misguided innocent. I offer myself to be lynched today because I know that I will be able to kill a wolf now, whereas at night I have no guarantee.

[The Saucepan Man]

I offer myself to be lynched today because I know that I will be able to kill a wolf now, whereas at night I have no guarantee.Well, clearly we should lynch one of you as, if we get the wrong one, he or she will take the Wolf in Hunter's clothing with him/her.

But which one?

Thoughts anyone?

[Márcolië Lamen]

edit: what I had said wasn't true and I just realized.

Of the two I'm more inclined to trust Abercrombie because Morm is on suspect list anyways...but that may be why the wolves are trying to take him down..

[mormegil]

I've told you my motives for telling you. I had no clue that AoR would falsely claim it and I truly thought that it would clear up our discussions today not cloud them more. I wanted to get my name off the suspect list so we could discuss true wolves and get away from me the Hunter. But again lynching me is okay because I will take AoR down with me, thus making my death worthwhile.

But what I would like to see happen is continued discussion as to who the other wolves may be so this day isn't wasted solely on AoR and me.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Another possibility is for us to lynch neither if we had strong suspisions on someone else. The wolves wouldn't be able to kill the hunter without losing one of their own at night too and we'd be able to watch the two of them for more suspicious activity. The wolf would know that, yes, but we wouldn't kill the hunter randomly and we may have better luck this way. Of course, this can not be over done and the hunter cant' be kept as an innocent forced to be kept alive too long or the wolves will manage to take over, but knowing that one of two people is a wolf may help us later on when we may have better chance of knowing which one is the wolf and which is the hunter.

Just something else to consider. We don't need to lynch one of these two. We need to at some point, but it may be best to keep our options open at this moment.

Either way we should at least discuss the other wolves to some degree.

[Formendacil]

Another day... another great loss... And already the Villagers-that-be are fighting- and this time they fight over which one is the Hunter: Mormegil or Abercrombie?

And so, my list:

Saucepan Man: As noted yesterday, Eomer's conviction goes miles towards helping exonerate Sauce. Unless he's our Cursed Wolf, which to me seems unlikely now, he is definitely a villager, it would seem. Cailin's faith in him prior to yesterday backs that up.

Boromir88: I trusted Boromir yesterday, and his successful diagnosis of the Wolf-Eomer only serves to firm up my feeling that he is, in fact, a most likely innocent villager.

Mormegil: I trusted Mormegil yesterday, but the fact that he didn't vote for Eomer- at a very crucial time too, when Eomer was leading in votes, but still at an early, indecisive, stage, is most distressing- as is his status as one of the claimants to the Hunter title. Thus far, I'm tempted to think Abercrombie the Wolf- but not definitively. In any case, Mormegil seems VERY suspicious.

Wilwarin: That Wilwa went along with Mormegil right after he started the Alcarillo distraction gives me reason to think that she could be another wolf. If anything, I suspect her MORE than Morm, since he COULD just possibly be the Hunter (although I think it unlikely at the moment).

Marcolie Lamen: Seems very unlikely right now to be anything other than an innocent villager. The only strike against her is that she's quiet- but as my own case shows, that doesn't necessarily indicate guilt, only a reason for a quiet suspicion. However, with bigger targets like Morm and Wilwa on the horizon, I am willing to pronounce her innocent- for now.

Abercrombie of Rohan: Seems more likely than Morm to be the Hunter, but the if she's NOT the Hunter, then she's definitely the Wolf. However, she seems a more likely hunter if only on the basis of the fact that she DID vote for Eomer yesterday, whereas Mormegil started, or tried to start, a diversionary vote.

Arcticstorm: I still don't trust Arcticstorm 100%, but his vote WAS the deciding one that killed off Eomer. I suppose it's possible he saw what way the wind was blowing, and wanted to avoid suspiction... No judgment here, just a cautious note to watch him.

Azaelia of Willowbottom: Seems suspicious. Her vote for Eomer came after he was already convicted de facto. Is it just an attempt to ingratiate herself with the Villagers, or is it a sign that she is one of them? Somehow, it seems easier to picture it as the former...

Alcarillo: This guy has me stumped. The fact that Morm and Wilwa voted for him in their attempt to upset the Eomer bandwaggon suggests that he is an innocent, but it COULD be the fourth wolf, keeping a low profile. What's more, he doesn't vote for ANYONE, which is even more suspicious, in my opinion. If Morm and Wilwa ARE the Wolves, then he's my bet for the last member of the quartet.

Overall, I think it will be clear who my big suspicions are: Morm and Wilwa. Their behaviour yesterday, and even more so the behaviour of Morm regarding the Hunter, strikes me as dangerous.

I would say that it would be best to strike down Wilwa. IF by some chance Morm is innocent, we will know when he dies tomorrow- and thus be certain that Abercrombie is a wolf...

[The Saucepan Man]

I've told you my motives for telling you.I can understand a morm-Hunter's motives for revealing himself, but I can also see good reasons for a morm-Wolf to claim the Hunter role. Being under some pressure and in danger of being lynched, he saw an opportunity to flush out the Hunter, which is important information for the Wolves, and possibly take the Hunter down with him. If the Hunter is dead, or if at least his/her identity is known to the Wolves, they can kill at Night without fear of losing one of their own.

What I find difficult to understand is why an Abercrombie-Wolf would claim to be the Hunter in response to a Hunter-morm's declaration. Why put herself at such risk? The only possibility I can think of is that she wanted to protect another Wolf who was looking to be in danger. Which would point to wilwarin, about whom many doubts have been expressed to-Day already. On the other hand, why put herself in the firing line to save a Wolf who will remain under suspicion?

But what I would like to see happen is continued discussion as to who the other wolves may be so this day isn't wasted solely on AoR and me.Oh, I have no intention of neglecting discussion of the other Wolves. Indeed, I think that it is essential that we all continue to put forward our thoughts, since this may well assist the Hunter in making his or her choice should s/he survive to-Day and be targetted by the Wolves to-Night.

Another possibility is for us to lynch neither if we had strong suspisions on someone else. The wolves wouldn't be able to kill the hunter without losing one of their own at night too and we'd be able to watch the two of them for more suspicious activity.I can see the sense in this - provided that we are confident in our choice. Clearly it would be better to-Day to lynch either mormegil or Abercrombie (resulting in the certain death of a Wolf) than to lynch an ordinary and innocent Villager.

On current thinking, and subject to further discussion, I would not be averse to the idea of lynching wilwarin to-Day.

Formendacil, your thoughts very much mirror my own, which helps to nourish my growing confidence in you. I will expand on my thoughts on the remaining villagers later to-Day.

[Boromir88]

Boro, I am pretty confident that you are innocent too. You and I have one suspect in common (wilwarin), but I would ask you to take a close look at mormegil.~Sauce
Indeed I have and now I will be so bold as in to say Wilwarin and Morm are both WOLVES. Mormegil has been a lot like Eomer in attacking Sauce. This is what the wolves have to do. To kill him would be far too dangerous and incriminating so they try to scheme up these wild possibilities and theories, that seem appealing but really have no basis behind them.

And Eomer and Morm seemed to be quite chummy between eachother yesterday...
Also, Mormegil: You, sir, are very creative.~Eomer, Post 191
To kill Sauce would be far to incriminating, especially if he was right on who are remaining wolves are (which I think he is), so they scheme up a plan to use against him to try to get him lynched. It's funny how I felt the same things that Mormegil was thinking of Sauce at first. I thought I wouldn't doubt it if Eomer and Sauce are both wolves going at eachother to fool everyone. But, once realizing Sauce wasn't an original wolf, and I doubt he's the ex-cursed, I backed off, while Mormegil still tries to push it.

I'd say Mormegil is our wolf and Abercrombie is our hunter. Why did Mormegil reveal his identity? There was no reason to. Really only Sauce was breathing down his neck, I was skepticle, but now it's very apparent to me morm's a wolf trying to get away with his treachery.

Abercrombie's revealing of herself makes perfect sense, because Abercrombie's the hunter and morm was lying when he revealed himself. There was no need to spout out he was the hunter, it was an attempt to get all of our suspicions off of him. If Mormegil was the hunter, there was no reason to reveal himself, he wasn't under that much suspicion, only from Sauce. Thankyou Abercrombie for stepping up, and letting us find another of these lupines.. If you didn't pick wilwarin tonight, I would suggest you to hunt wilwarin if the wolves go after you. But that's just my suggestion, you are the one who has to decide.

++mormegil

[Boromir88]

If that's hard to follow about, basically between who to believe morm or Abercrombie...

IF mormegil was the hunter, why did he feel the need to reveal his identity? To me there was no reason behind it, he acted like we forced him out of it. Which means he obviously is a wolf, trying to throw away suspicion, and get away with his treachery. Why he revealed himself just doesn't make sense IF he was the hunter, which makes him a wolf.

Abercrombie, if she was the hunter, she needed to reveal herself and I'm glad she did. If morm's trying to pass as the "real" hunter, it makes perfect sense for the true hunter to come out and say, hey I'm the hunter here. Morm's "I'm the hunter" was an attempt to stop suspicion from building up, and I'm glad Abercrombie has stepped up and revealed her identity. We now have another wolf down.

[wilwarin538]

Well I'm not even going to try to defend myself since you all seem so sure about me. But I will tell you(though it probably won't do much) that it will be a mistake if you lynch me.

I think Morm is the one lying about being the Hunter. I really don't think a wolf would pretend to be the Hunter after someone already admitted to it.

Yesterday I voted for Alcarillo, it was obviously one of my mistakes(I seem to be making a lot of those). I was terribly wrong about Eomer.

Now if both Morm and I were wolves, I seriously doubt we both would have voted for Alcarillo, especially within a few posts of each other. Eomer was most likely going to be lynched, that was fairly obvious at that point I believe. So I don't think two of the other wolves would have tried to get the voting in another direction. I was a fool to follow along with it.

Now let me guess. You are all going to say this was all a wolfish trick. Well fine. But it isn't.

I am going to vote now. Hopefully this will be my first right vote in the game(even though for all we know my vote for Alcarillo could have still been right)

++Mormegil

crossposted with Boro