Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Shelob]

Or few lower (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=447462&postcount=2275)

DRAMATIS PERSONAE
Shelob--Mad Scientist/doctor
AbercrombieofRohan--Retired Yeti Spotter
Saucepan Man--foreign dignitary
Farael--alchemist
Mormegil--soldier
Aiwendil--cook
Glirdan--musician
Formendacil--knight
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant--shepherd
Nilpaurion Felagund--fishmonger
Lhunardawen--princess
Eomer of the Rohirrim--priest
Littlemanpoet--silversmith
Kath--beekeeper
Garin--baker
Holbytlass--governess
Anguirel--banker
Celuien--resident amphibian
Tar-Ancalime--ex-leper
Gil-Galad--devoted Lupine enthusiast
Boromir88--magistrate

ACT I

Scene i
Thunder and Lighting, Enter three WOLVES

First Wolf: When shall we three meet again, in thunder, lighting or in rain?
Second Wolf: When the hurly-burly’s done, when our task’s over and done
Third Wolf: That will be ere the rise of sun.
First Wolf: Where the place?
Second Wolf: Upon the Heath.
Third Wolf: There to meet with MacDeath.

Scene ii
A moonlight dappled forest clearing, Enter ABERCROMBIE

Abercrombie: (muttering) They made me retire. I could find a yeti, all I have to do is look. DO YOU HEAR ME? I WILL FIND A YETI!
(While she’s been mumbling a large, dark shape enters behind her)
Abercrombie: No yetis over there.
(She half turns, the shape moves closer and she spots it)
Abercrombie: Yes? I do believe it’s…yes, YES! A yeti! I’ve spotted a Yeti!!!!!
(The shape moves into a patch of moonlight and is revealed to be a giant bear.)
Abercrombie: AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

(Exit, chased by a bear)

Scene iii
This and all following scenes take place in valley village Eaumor. Eaumor is nestled between mountains on its west and east. A river runs through the valley from North to South and runs along the Western edge of the village. To the east of the village is a dark (and very expensive) forest. The forest stretches across most of the eastern mountains and there lives within it the Mad Scientist/Doctor SHELOB. Everyone fears this mysterious scientist, yet since she’s come to their valley no one has died of sickness, injury or old age, for all that she’s kept these villagers alive and unharmed the rumours of her unnatural experiments are believed unquestionably by the residents of Eaumor.
It is early morning in the village square. The sounds of people waking up and beginning their day can be heard.
Enter GARIN and AIWENDIL

Aiwendil: Now Garin, I know you’re afraid of bees, but trust me. Just ask Kath for a little bit of honey and use it in your baked goods, it’ll make them much better.
Garin: (panicking slightly) But they’re bees! They can sting you!
(He backs away from Aiwendil. He trips into the shallow fountain in the square’s center and begins to scream)
Aiwendil: Garin, Calm Down!

(Garin has crawled out of the fountain but his continued screaming has drawn the attention of the other villagers, enter FARAEL, GLIRDAN, FORM, SPAWN, NILP, LHUNA, EOMER, LMP, KATH, HOLBY, ANG, CELUIEN, TAR, GIL, and BORO)

Littlemanpoet: Quiet! Quiet Garin! What’s the matter with you?
Garin: (stuttering) S-S-She’s…She’s…
Holbytlass: (trying to calm Garin) Who’s what dear?
Garin: Shelob. Fountain. Dead.

(This announcement gets quite the response, many villagers make dubious comments while a handful, including Eomer and Gil-Galad, rush to the fountain and pull out the ex-scientist/doctor’s mutilated corpse)

Celuien: My Fountain? MY fountain you say?
Gil-Galad: (while the body is being dragged out of the fountain) She’s been badly clawed up. This definitely looks like the work of at least two very unhappy werewolves. Three even, though it’s a little hard to tell for sure.
Eomer: I found this on her. It’s gotten rather wet but it appears to be a letter, written in her blood if not her hand.
Lhuna: Well? What does it say?
Eomer: (reading) Shelob hath murdered sleep and therefore Eaumor shall sleep no more, Death shall sleep no more.
Formendacil: “Death shall sleep no more” I don’t like the sound of that.
Farael: Nor do I.

(Enter MORMEGIL and SPM, from the Eastern forest)

Dancing Spawn: Hello, who are you two? Would either of you happen to know anything about this death, or have seen some suspicious looking wolves around?
Mormegil: We’ve just arrived here, the most we can tell you is that this morning, in the forest a little way from where we’d camped, we passed the remains of what we assumed was a villager. She was torn to pieces. A short distance from her remains was the corpse of a huge bear. Someone had put a good number of arrows into the thing, and cut off its head.
Saucepan Man: We’ve come with a message for Shelob, but The sight is dismal; And our affairs come too late: The ears are senseless that should give us hearing.
Nilp: Excellent, well, I am…
Kath: Nilpaurion, leave be. This whole thing is smells fishy enough without you muddying up the waters.
Nilp:…a fishmonger. I was only going to sell them fish Kath, what else could I have said?
Tar-Ancalime: You know, I’ll bet the villager who’s remains they found was Abercrombie. She gave me some alms last night before heading off towards the woods, and I heard her muttering something about wanting to find a yeti.
Anguirel: Alms? For an ex-leper?
Boromir88: Enough! I suggest we all get settled for the day and gather back here in the square. We should do our best to track these beast-people down, may we be as lucky in our shots as whoever hunted down the creature which kill poor Abercrombie.

(Exaunt all but Glirdan)

Glirdan: (singing) When that I was and a little tiny boy,
With hey, ho, the wind and the rain,
A foolish thing was but a toy,
For the rain it raineth every day.

But when I came to man's estates,
With hey, ho, the wind and the rain
'Gainst knaves and wolves we’ll shut our gates,
For the rain it raineth every day.

(Exaunt)

Scene iv
(The central square. Enter all)

[littlemanpoet]

Alas and alas, this is no good at all.
We're all going to die, mark my words.
There are werewolves amongst us,
and they will kill kill kill!
We are doomed.

All right, I've given me little speech for the sakes of this play which is apparently the thing, so now I'd have ye all pay attention for a might bit. I've silver, you see, and silver's a good thing when it comes to werewolves, see, as good or better than it is for making the ladies look pretty, you see, and I've got a fair bit of it for it's my trade. Now: I've made knives of it, a pretty little collection. Each of ye should purchase a nice silvery knife from me so as to make sure that who ever is our hunter winds up with a silvery knife. And if every last one of us has one, maybe one as is a werewolf will have bad luck and sit no its own silver knife and thereby do itself in.

Now, I hear tell that there's a seer or two in this here village, and that they can't be trusted. One of 'em's right all the time, the other's wrong more than half the time and we've no way of telling until one of 'em's dead, and that's not a good thing. But see, the werewolves aren't all pretty minded about this neither, 'cause they know that there's two seers, one true and one false, and the longer they both stays hidden, why the worse for them! Because that gives the true seer lots of time to gather facts, and who knows maybe we'll be lucky and the false seer will be found out in some way, though me fears the most likely is to get lynched or mauled, more's the pity. Well, that's all I'm saying for now. If some of you folk have wisdom to add, all the better.

Still, we're doomed unless we use our noggins and pay close attention to likely signs of lycanthropy.

Oh! The knives are five gold coins a piece.

[Anguirel]

Werewolves, you say? Are you quite sure? Right.

I'm afraid interest rates are going to have to rise.

The bank of Anguirel, Anguirel and Anguirel (Angangang PLC) will otherwise continue to function properly and cater for every inhabitant of Eaumor. We do not take responsibility for loans that turn out to be, in retrospect, to wolves.

However no one with a visible tail will be permitted onto our premises.

Now, I'm going to retire for a nice, ah, morning slumber and mull the business over. Business acumen can become sleuthing expertise in a pinch.

I want to end by emphasising that drama is all very well, but Polonius was an idiot...

[Glirdan]

Alas for poor Shelob. Tis a sad day to know that Wolevs are amongst us. I'm so frightened that when I practiced this morning, I couldn't hit high C!! :eek: Shelob was one of the only people who truly enjoyed my singing, and now she is gone. May her soul rest in peace.

And Abercrombie as well!? Oh this is truly a sad day. Why on Arda would the Wolves want to attack those two? What have they ever done to hurt anyone?

Now, to get to the matters at hand, I know this is quite obvious, but for those who don't know me, I like to be blantantly obvious. So, here we go: we have to cath these Wolves. And what's this? Two Seers, one of which is always right and the other pretty much alway wrong!? We are in a terrible state. Luckily, we have our nightly protectors. May you guard us well.

Now, I must say that we come up with a strategy and I have one already. It's simple: we get rid of the quiet people. ( :p ). They cannot be trusted. I have heard from others who have travelled and have lived in a village with Wolves that there is always one quiet one, one talkaive and one in between. So, I say we flush out the quiet one by lynching everyone who is to quiet. What say you!?

[Boromir88]

Werewolves you say? Why this was like the last village I was at...Salem I believe it was. I authorized 12 lynchings and one man to be crushed, alas I had to call an end to it all because it turned out the whole town went into hysteria and everyone was being accused of lyncanthropy. If I hadn't put an end to the madness everyone in the village surely would have been lynched. I shall do my part and authorize all lynchings if though shalt offer substantial proof of werewolvery.

Lmp don't use these desperate times to further the thickness of your wallet, a good noose is much better than any of your silver devices.

[tar-ancalime]

*shouts from 100 yards away*

No silver knife for me. No noose neither. I'm safe from the wolves--none of you will go near me, so why should they?

How many times do I have to tell you, it's EX-leper!

[Aiwendil]

Oh! The knives are five gold coins a piece.

Five gold coins for a knife? Madness, I tell 'ee. Still, I've half a mind to take one. Only I hope that Boromir's right, the wolves get the noose, and the knife will be used solely on vegetables!

Now, I know we don't have much to go on as yet. But it seems to me that random accusations and similar nonsense will only help the Wolves. Meseems the sooner we get down to some serious discussion, the better the chances of our village surviving.

With that in mind, I offer a few questions for all to consider in the hope that they may provoke some useful discussion of villager strategy.

1. What is the most reliable way of spotting a wolf? Should we focus on the accusations people make, on the general tone of their posts, or on their voting records?

2. What should the Gifteds' strategy be? My own feeling is that the Gifteds, and our Seers in particular, should emphatically not risk revealing themselves unless necessary. Especially at the outset, the prime goal of the Gifteds should be to survive.

3. Among how many people should we spread the votes today? I would guess that with nineteen villagers, we should try to spread the votes among about five or six people, which would make the chances of at least one of them being a wolf fairly good.

Any thoughts?

And by the way, Wolves, to quote a famous Hobbit, I cook better than I cook, if you see what I mean.

[The Saucepan Man]

Enter THE SAUCEPAN MAN, Viscount Kettle and Fourth Earl of Lower Churdlecombe-in-the-Wold, Stage Right.

Zounds! Well that's just great isn't it!? I journey all this way from fair Albion, far away over the water, to meet with your resident mad scientist and part-time local dignitary. And forsooth! When I get here, I find that she hath verily kickèd the bucket. And what is more there are Werewolves to contend with, and seemingly Bears to boot. Ah well, the twinning of this village with Lower Churdlecombe-in-the-Wold shall have to wait. I know little of Werewolves, for they are but a legend in my land. But I shall do what I can to aid you in rooting them out.

May I suggest that all come forth and tell what they know of this foul deed. Let no one hold back, for it is only through discussion that we will have any hope of identifying these dreadful beasts. And when the time comes to choose one of our number to face the gallows today, as surely it will, I hope that all will see the sense in discharging their civic duty and casting their vote. For, over time, I imagine that those votes will tell a story in themselves, and only the Wolves have anything to hide in the telling of it. And I trust also that everyone will appreciate the wisdom of spreading our votes out as best we can. For it is only if the Wolves are in danger during the Day's voting that we may force their hands, or should I say paws.

Now, I must say that we come up with a strategy and I have one already. It's simple: we get rid of the quiet people. They cannot be trusted.While I have some sympathy for this view and will not look kindly upon those who hold back and do not contribute to our discussions, I believe that some restraint is in order here. Quietness alone doth not a Wolf make. We must look for other evidence in that which is said and, more importantly, in the way that the votes are cast.

Oh! The knives are five gold coins a piece.

I'm afraid interest rates are going to have to rise.Er - perhaps it is a cultural thing, but aren't you being just a tad opportunistic there? ;)

[Kath]

Just poking my head in before I go see to the bees. This werewolf business is a bad one. But I'm not sure that this free for all, make as much money as you can state of things isn't worse! Just as long as they don't take my honey I'm happy.

[tar-ancalime]

But I'm not sure that this free for all, make as much money as you can state of things isn't worse!

Nothing wrong with a good healthy dose of capitalism, eh, comrade?

It could be that one of these speculators will find a real solution--after all, what greater motivators than fear and money? We've got both in abundance.

Actually, now that I think of it, I've only got fear. Alms for the poor?

[mormegil]

A soldier I am and always will be. While I possess great physical prowess and dexterity it's my mind that has won me many a battle. I am able to out think my opponent and that, my friends, will be your greatest asset: A sound mind, reasoned logic, good mannered patience and random accusations.

Gil-Galad too much lupine in him already
Tar -Ancalime was only healed of leprocy because she became a wolf
Celuien a resident amphibian? More like resident lycan.
and Holbytlass as governess seems to govern the wolves more

Take my word for it friends there's two wolves in that pack.

[Farael]

Werewolves you say? ahh the 1,4-difanged-3-tailedfurrybeasts!! maybe we should spread some 2-sworded-1bigmeanhunter and hope for a favourable reaction... oh, but the reaction constant favours the wolves at this point... I guess that we must wait.

Poor Shelob! we were working together trying to find a way to turn gold into rocks... she was such a charmingly insane scientist! I guess I should be sorry for AbercrombieofRohan but who needs a Yeti spotter? Sulfur spotter would be much more useful.

And talking about sulfides, I shall go prepare some more sulfonamides for tar-ancalime... EX-leper he says, but better be safe than sorry.

I will be back later on, fellow villagers.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well I am glad, Master Cook, that you have suggested some strategies that do not simply involve the slaughter of those who are quiet but (quite possibly) innocent. I do, however, have some reservations over one or two things that you say, and will throw my thoughts out, for what they are worth.

1. What is the most reliable way of spotting a wolf? Should we focus on the accusations people make, on the general tone of their posts, or on their voting records?All three, I should say, and more. We should focus on everything that is said and done, for therein might lie clues to guilt. As for the voting record, it is clearly important. But moreso over time and most particularly when we catch a Wolf.

2. What should the Gifteds' strategy be? My own feeling is that the Gifteds, and our Seers in particular, should emphatically not risk revealing themselves unless necessary. Especially at the outset, the prime goal of the Gifteds should be to survive.I would prefer to trust to the Gifteds' discretion to act as they see fit, based on what they know.

3. Among how many people should we spread the votes today? I would guess that with nineteen villagers, we should try to spread the votes among about five or six people, which would make the chances of at least one of them being a wolf fairly good.While (as I have said), I think that it is a good idea to spread the votes, I would counsel against setting an arbitrary limit. By doing so, we may unwittingly be restricting ourselves only to innocents. Everyone should cast their votes as they think best and if that results in a wide field, then so much the better.

[Glirdan]

I'm sorry my firends, but I must leave for the rest of the Day. I've been called out of town on a sudden emergency. I must vote and I tell you now that it is mostly random.

++Gil-Galad

Devoted lupine enthusiast my rear end! It's more like he's an expert lupine.

Good bye my friends.

*If you want real reason for my abscence, check the original thread. Thanks.

[Gil-Galad]

woah woah woah Glirdy, though i admire the Lupine, i would never want to be one, don't be rash Glirdan, senseless voting will get you know where!

[littlemanpoet]

Now, I must say that we come up with a strategy and I have one already. It's simple: we get rid of the quiet people. ( :p ). They cannot be trusted. I have heard from others who have travelled and have lived in a village with Wolves that there is always one quiet one, one talkaive and one in between. So, I say we flush out the quiet one by lynching everyone who is to quiet. What say you!?
Too arbitrary. Let's see what people say (or not). If someone acts suspicious, lynch that one instead of an arbitrarily picked quiet one. There's not guarantee that the three werewolves will follow the ol' quiet/middling/loud format anyway.

[littlemanpoet]

Lmp don't use these desperate times to further the thickness of your wallet, a good noose is much better than any of your silver devices.Easy for you to say, oh thou majestic magisterium, sir; you're on the guvment payroll. Those of us who actually have to work for a living must come up with whatever profitable methods we can for keeping body and soul together.

[littlemanpoet]

Good questions, Aiwendil.

I offer a few questions for all to consider in the hope that they may provoke some useful discussion of villager strategy.

1. What is the most reliable way of spotting a wolf? Should we focus on the accusations people make, on the general tone of their posts, or on their voting records?For starters, such helpful questions as these lead me to suspect your innocence. By contrast, I have found that werewolves find it difficult to put on the act of innocence, and their guilt can often be read between the lines of what they say when they "suspect" others. Also, some werewolves tend to explain their strategy by means of conjecturing how they "suppose" a werewolf might think. These aren't definites, but they help me lean toward suspicion, if you take my meaning.

2. What should the Gifteds' strategy be? My own feeling is that the Gifteds, and our Seers in particular, should emphatically not risk revealing themselves unless necessary. Especially at the outset, the prime goal of the Gifteds should be to survive.I've already spoken regarding the Seers: stay hidden, both of you. Make very, very subtle hints that can be referred to should you be killed. I agree with your advice otherwise.

3. Among how many people should we spread the votes today? I would guess that with nineteen villagers, we should try to spread the votes among about five or six people, which would make the chances of at least one of them being a wolf fairly good.That seems reasonable to me; that way, the werewolves will be forced to vote in a telling way. However, five or six? That may spread things too thin, maybe? I don't know.

[littlemanpoet]

While (as I have said), I think that it is a good idea to spread the votes, I would counsel against setting an arbitrary limit. By doing so, we may unwittingly be restricting ourselves only to innocents. Everyone should cast their votes as they think best and if that results in a wide field, then so much the better.
Hear hear!

[Boromir88]

Well I'm going to pop in here before I retire to my quarters. Just some observations.

Good discussion so far, though I must say nothing that I already don't know myself.

Saucepan is acting like his usual self, offering advice, counsel, sounding intellegent. So, there's no reason to think him of lycanthropy. Though he could know this and use it to his advantage.

Mormegil comes out with his random accusations as usual.

Glirdan quickly votes as usual. And it always seems to be the most obvious target.

lmp jumps right into things and gives his opinion as usual.

Gil-galad's quick witty remarks as usual.

People telling their woe and condolensces for the dead...umm as usual.

Everything just seems usual...too usual.

This false seer scares me as it could cause a whole mass of confusion for the entire village giving everyone the wrong information and going by our own mind to judge who is the right seer and who is the false seer. Above all people it will be the Seer who I would put my trust in to authorize the lynching of a wolf, but if we don't know who the false seer is, then this could cause some big problems.

[Holbytlass]

Holbytlass as governess seems to govern the wolves more.
Well, Master Morm, I will be the first to admit my charges are like a pack of wild animals but if ye are implying those innocent babes are the culprits behind poor Shelob and Abercrombie's deaths then shame on you. But no worries, I suppose a soldier has seen situations that would make my hair curl.
I assure you and all others that my charges were tucked in all night and I was by their side seeing as they have come down with bad headcolds.

1. What is the most reliable way of spotting a wolf? Should we focus on the accusations people make, on the general tone of their posts, or on their voting records?
Now not always but it seems suspicious when a person wants to hang someone else that had made an arbitrary or even tacky accusation when everyone else feels that it was in jest. In my experience, sometimes the tattletail had done the worst offense.

2. What should the Gifteds' strategy be? My own feeling is that the Gifteds, and our Seers in particular, should emphatically not risk revealing themselves unless necessary. Especially at the outset, the prime goal of the Gifteds should be to survive.
Of course, in agreement there-lay low, but not too low or Glirdan will hang ye ;). Oh I suppose the usual is in order:don't be obvious, but be clear and don't get killed!! If it's likely a seer is going to be lynched try to come and post a clear list of whom you've dreamt of.

3. Among how many people should we spread the votes today? I would guess that with nineteen villagers, we should try to spread the votes among about five or six people, which would make the chances of at least one of them being a wolf fairly good.
A bit of spread is good, but how are we to know exactly how many.

[tar-ancalime]

This false seer scares me as it could cause a whole mass of confusion for the entire village giving everyone the wrong information and going by our own mind to judge who is the right seer and who is the false seer.

Well, yes.

It seems to me we've got to play as though we'd already lost the Seer (blind, if you catch me). We can dispense with the usual Seer-related flotsam of the first few days: people looking for hints that aren't there, declaring that they know who the Seer is, silly warnings to keep hidden, and the rest of that nonsense. We've just got to do the best we can and wait for later in the game, when we'll (if we're lucky) get a great gift from the true Seer.

The wolves will be looking for both Seers, but not too hard--if they kill the false Seer too soon, we'll be relieved of our doubts and they'll lose their advantage. I think both Seers have got a bit of breathing space, at least from the wolves.

I'd like to propose a moratorium on Seer talk--we can't know who is true until one of them dies, and the longer we wait the more information we'll get. So let's play as though neither of them is here.

[Celuien]

*Celuien enters, dripping water from her soaking froggie feet*

Alas for poor (ribbit) Shelob and Abercrombie. Especially for Shelob, the only mad scientist...erm...doctor who ever tried (ribbit) to understand my peculiar condition. If only she'd lived a little longer, maybe I would have been cured. Celuien a resident amphibian? More like resident lycan.
Now, now morm. Don't let's be hasty. While my amphibious tendencies certainly make me a stand-out among the ordinary villagers, I'm far from a lycan. Indeed, why would I put poor Shelob in my own fountain? No, no. It's a frame-up, if you ask me. Ex-lepers like tar-a are far more suspicious. How did they come by a cure, after all? Deals with the lycanthropic side? I wonder. And bankers like Ang, well, everyone knows that bankers are naturally suspicious.

Anyway, gifteds, please stay hidden for the time being.

This little water-dweller is sleepy. Too many hours up snaring flies. But I'll return in a few hours.

[littlemanpoet]

It seems to me we've got to play as though we'd already lost the Seer (blind, if you catch me). We can dispense with the usual Seer-related flotsam of the first few days: people looking for hints that aren't there, declaring that they know who the Seer is, silly warnings to keep hidden, and the rest of that nonsense. We've just got to do the best we can and wait for later in the game, when we'll (if we're lucky) get a great gift from the true Seer.I agree. I was more or less trying to say this. Thanks for saying it better.

I'd like to propose a moratorium on Seer talk--we can't know who is true until one of them dies, and the longer we wait the more information we'll get. So let's play as though neither of them is here.The only problem with this is that seer talk is one more piece of the village talk by which we may be able to snare a werewolf by means of his/her words. So although I sympathize with your desire for clarity, too much of that kind of clarity at this early stage might help the werewolves (to hide out in the open) more than the innocents.

[Aiwendil]

Littlemanpoet wrote:
However, five or six? That may spread things too thin, maybe? I don't know.

But if we only spread them among, say, three or four, then chances are that all those voted for will be innocent. And if all those voted for are innocent, the votes end up telling us nothing. It seems to me that five or six is the optimal number - enough that we're likely to include a wolf and not enough that we allow the wolves a great many 'safe votes'. But I certainly did not mean to suggest that we adopt any such arbitrary number as an absolute standard. I merely suggest that we aim, rather approximately, for the 5 - 6 range.

I think people may be worrying a bit too much about the false Seer. True, his/her presence may lead to confusion. Certainly it would be better not to have a false Seer. But bear in mind that a 'dream' from the false Seer is no more likely to be wrong than a random guess by a bewildered villager. As long as we all bear the existence of the false Seer in mind, I think we should get along all right. I certainly don't see any call for a moratorium on talking about the Seer; though I would, again, advise the Seers themselves to stay completely hidden. Note also that, at least in my opinion, the chief value of the Seer is to be gotten after the Seer has died (after a long and fruitful life, I hope) - and when either Seer dies his or her true nature will be revealed to us.

[Lhunardawen]

Before anything else, let it be known to the masses that I, your princess, am not, I repeat, NOT an ordinary villager.

I'm extraordinary.

With that piece of information lodged in your crania, I propose, nay, demand that I must NOT in any case whatsoever be lynched by Day or killed by Night. Violators will be punished in the most fitting manner.

Thank you.

P. S. How do y'all like my title? I think our foreign dignitary in particular will find it, umm, interesting...

[Lhunardawen]

Now, to business.


Now, I must say that we come up with a strategy and I have one already. It's simple: we get rid of the quiet people. ( ). They cannot be trusted. I have heard from others who have travelled and have lived in a village with Wolves that there is always one quiet one, one talkaive and one in between. So, I say we flush out the quiet one by lynching everyone who is to quiet. What say you!?I say you ought to be lynched for that.

Princess though I am, there are certain realities in life over which I have no control, and with regards to this play or whatever we call this thing, I name a bizarre condition called timezones as my greatest bane. I've searched high and low for someone who can cure me, but to no avail. The grave effects of the condition include a disturbing degree of quietness on my part. And can you blame me, musician?


All three, I should say, and more. We should focus on everything that is said and done, for therein might lie clues to guilt. As for the voting record, it is clearly important. But moreso over time and most particularly when we catch a Wolf.I couldn't agree more. However I must warn everyone of the perils of reading too much into what is being said. Many a village in the past have been completely destroyed by the kin of these villainous carnivores because their denizens look farther than they ought to look, if you see what I mean.

I also agree with the ex-leper tar-ancalime's thoughts on the Seers. Stay as hidden as you can, do not give blatantly obvious "hints," and choose your dreams well!


For starters, such helpful questions as these lead me to suspect your innocence.If it's any good news, Aiwendil, I think the same of you. But if you ever so much as reveal a furry tail...

Alas, the time for my princess lessons (Calculus, actually :rolleyes: ) draws nigh. I'll be back in three hours or so with a vote. Speaking of which, NOBODY must suspect me for voting early everyDay. Anyone who does so will be pushed down the stage and out of the theater.

[Formendacil]

Friends, villagers, countrymen, lend me your ears! I come to bury these ladies, and to praise them!

So wise so young, they say never live long, yet I am nearly done to death by this slanderous deed- for what is life without the fair maidens Shelob and Abercrombie? Mine chivalry is affronted, for I, the noblest Knight of this land, was powerless to assist them!

Alas, poor lasses! I knew them well, good villagers.

Though these deaths be madness, yet there is method in 't! We need but find the method and we find these things of darkness!

This is the unkindest cut of all, that we have no madness of yet in which to find a method. Let every villager negotiate for himself his defence. The course of Werewolf-hunting did never run smooth. O, what Werewolves dare do! Are not many done to death by slanderous tongue? Here's ado to lock up honesty!

Remember: Cowards die many times before their deaths. The valiant never taste of death but once! How poor are they that have not patience...

Something is rotten in the village of Eaumor!

[mormegil]

Formendacil, when will you knights learns that being a soldier is far superior to your station? You've wrapped yourself up in quixotic fantasies and dilluted your true purpose.

Now on to business.

Lhunardawen is a bit haughty and may be hiding pointed ears under her tiara.

All but Gil have responded to my accusations much like I would expect. I will not reveal yet what I think of those responses but will continue to hold them in high suspicion.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

[Yavanna gilled rower here.]

Oh, The Saucepan Man from foreign lands, have you ever seen anything like my sign? ;)

Ah, dancing spawn, the Princess Shepherdess. ( :p to Lhunade-hime*) My name is Mamandil, and I would like to sing a ballad of--

*thwack thwack thwack* Listen, ignoble-class person, you will do only two things in this village: Sell fish and vote. ¿Comprende?

No Español.

*facepalms* Never mind . . .

Spanish . . . voting . . . that reminds me. I remember Farael carping about obtaining the Moderator's Gallstone to achieve immortality. That's pretty susfishious, isn't it?

Besides, I have a promise (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=447227&postcount=2270) to him, and on my honour as a merchant of mer-products, I shall keep it!

++Farael

Never did understand his lecture on the Krebs cycle of life, anyhow? :p
__________________
*hime - princess (Japanese)

[Lhunardawen]

Fishpaurion Fishagund, you're nothing but a second-rate trying hard copycatfish. :p


Lhunardawen is a bit haughty and may be hiding pointed ears under her tiara.Ah, dear soldier...perhaps I do. Maybe I'm an Elf. Who knows?

But if I were you, I wouldn't insult our Don Quixo...I mean our knight so much. As a matter of fact, why don't we make it a law? "All insults directed at the knight henceforth shall go 'rubber glue back to you.' "

Within the hour or so I shall come up with a name which I shall affix to two plus signs, and after that you shall see me after my royal beauty rest, on the next Day. Now will someone show me some fur before I go? I don't want to waste a vote.

[Anguirel]

Also, some werewolves tend to explain their strategy by means of conjecturing how they "suppose" a werewolf might think. These aren't definites, but they help me lean toward suspicion, if you take my meaning.


I disagree that trying to discover wolves by empathatic thought experiment is necessarily wolvish. It can simply be an effective way of exploiting what we know of character and likely strategy to our benefit.

I agree with the...ex-lepress...on the state of affairs of our Seers. True Seers and False Seers, whoever they be, speak with manifold, contorted tongues. It is by stout steel and cunning that we will defeat these wolves, not mumbling, confused riddles! Let us regard ourselves as a village without a Seer.

We'll make them regret they ever picked this place for raiding!

[Lhunardawen]

Let us regard ourselves as a village without a Seer.While I very well agreed to this, I wonder how the lycans will play this up. Any conjectures? They might help, they just might.

[Lhunardawen]

Perhaps I could answer my own question.

Naturally even as we speak they are on the hunt for the Seers. Yes, I think both of them, because none of us know which is which. I suppose they'd be doing off the "careful" ones first. And they'll take advantage of the Seers' quietness so they won't be able to reveal anything before they are killed.

Should we be wary, then, of those who call out the Seers or express disagreement to tar-ancalime's proposition? Or is this actually some sort of a lupine tactic (not that I'm suspecting the ex-leper)? Hmm...

[tar-ancalime]

originally posted by the Lhuminous Princess:

Should we be wary, then, of those who call out the Seers or express disagreement to tar-ancalime's proposition?

While it's always wise to suspect those who disagree with me (and it's a method I often employ, in Gaurhoth as in life), I wouldn't go that far here, Lhuna. I don't want to create any kind of cut-and-dried loyalty-oath-like environment: those are the easiest situations for wolves to wriggle out of.

Village: Let's suspect anyone who calls out the Seer!
Wolves: Hey guys, let's stop talking about the Seer!

or, perhaps,

Village: Let's trust anyone who posts in blank verse!
Wolves: We're innocent, we're innocent, we say!
So please believe us, for the love of God!

I stand by what I said earlier, but I don't think we can make any bold declarations about what we do or don't find suspicious--unless we're being a little duplicitous ourselves.

[tar-ancalime]

Should we be wary, then, of those who call out the Seers or express disagreement to tar-ancalime's proposition? Or is this actually some sort of a lupine tactic (not that I'm suspecting the ex-leper)? Hmm...

Well, there's the entire paragraph from which I drew the quote in my last post. Somehow I missed the second half of it, in which Lhuna qualifies her statement. So, I guess you can take my entire last post as a multi-paragraph extrapolation of that last sentence.

[Anguirel]

And, of course, the idea of wolves doing anything collectively is a pleasantly ludicrous one. They'll all seize different methods most suited to their skills.

[Lhunardawen]

*sigh* It's time.

++GLIRDAN

He's most likely innocent, but what can I do? As a respected Dwarf from a village of old, Kuruharan I think his name is, aptly put it, "Day Ones :rolleyes:"

I decree that no one suspect me for voting in such a manner, even if Glirdan is later proved to be indeed innocent.

Farewell, fair village, and see you soon.

[The Saucepan Man]

I am glad to see that this seems a fairly talkative village. Some musings follow on what has been said since I was last here.

Also, some werewolves tend to explain their strategy by means of conjecturing how they "suppose" a werewolf might think. These aren't definites, but they help me lean toward suspicion, if you take my meaning.

I disagree that trying to discover wolves by empathatic thought experiment is necessarily wolvish. It can simply be an effective way of exploiting what we know of character and likely strategy to our benefit.I tend to agree with the Banker on this one. What is it they say? To catch a Wolf, one must try to think like one. And it can help in assessing innocence as well as guilt. Having said that, we should still take care over what we say in this regard. As tar-ancalime has suggested, we do not want to provide the Wolves with a ready-made guide on how to act to avoid suspicion …

Mormegil comes out with his random accusations as usual.Indeed. Though he has said that he prefers to use the power of his mind to his strength at arms, his accusations are made seemingly without any rational basis. Still, it is standard behaviour for Captain morm and, although I don’t hold much with random accusations, I will be interested to see what conclusions he has reached concerning the responses to them.

Glirdan quickly votes as usual. And it always seems to be the most obvious target.Well, it seems that he had good reason to vote early. But I agree that he has chosen an easy target. Legend tells of the quietness and confusing nature of Gil-Galad’s predecessors ( ;) ). Nevertheless, it is risky behaviour for a Wolf to draw attention to himself by voting so early and for someone who had not at that stage spoken, and I somehow doubt that a Wolfish Glirdan would be so bold. Not at this stage, at least.

It seems to me we've got to play as though we'd already lost the Seer (blind, if you catch me). We can dispense with the usual Seer-related flotsam of the first few days: people looking for hints that aren't there, declaring that they know who the Seer is, silly warnings to keep hidden, and the rest of that nonsense. We've just got to do the best we can and wait for later in the game, when we'll (if we're lucky) get a great gift from the true Seer.I certainly agree with this. As I said earlier, we should trust the Gifteds to get on with doing their jobs as they think best. There has been far too much Seer talk already for my liking. In my view, it serves only to distract us from the job at hand.

The only problem with this is that seer talk is one more piece of the village talk by which we may be able to snare a werewolf by means of his/her words.I disagree. Too much Seer talk can only help the Wolves. How do you envisage that it might ensnare them? Surely it is better to focus our discussions on who might be the Wolves, rather than on how the Seers should be behaving.

I will be keeping an eye on those who seem to be encouraging this talk of Seers. *Glares at littlemanpoet and Aiwendil*

But I certainly did not mean to suggest that we adopt any such arbitrary number as an absolute standard. I merely suggest that we aim, rather approximately, for the 5 - 6 range.Well then, I agree. But none should regard themselves as constrained by it. Still, we have three votes already for three different villagers, so it seems already that the votes are likely to be well spread.

Before anything else, let it be known to the masses that I, your princess, am not, I repeat, NOT an ordinary villager.

I'm extraordinary.Hmm, your imperious manner befits your station in life. And that would be a bold statement indeed for a Wolf. But your vote for Glirdan concerns me. I accept that you had good reason for voting when you did and it is fair to say that there is not yet much to go on. Yet, if Gil-Galad was an easy target, then so is Glirdan at this moment in time. Do you really think that a Wolf would have acted in the way that he did?

Oh, The Saucepan Man from foreign lands, have you ever seen anything like my sign?Aye, I have seen its like before. But not in these parts. And ‘tis a helpful contribution to our e-moot. Your quick and unreasoned vote for Farael does not speak in your favour, but I see that you were discharging an oath sworn before the village was beset by these unhappy circumstances. For now, your vote notwithstanding, I am inclined to view you as innocent.

As matters stand, I would like to hear from dancing spawn of ungoliant, Eomer of the Rohirrim and Garin none of whom have, I believe, joined our discussion as yet. Oh, and I would like to hear something more useful from Farael, Formendacil and Kath …

[Boromir88]

But if we only spread them among, say, three or four, then chances are that all those voted for will be innocent.
That I would agree with. There are 19 villages 3 of which are wolves, making it an approximately 6:1 ratio. So with 6 votees the math tells us one is a wolf. 3 or 4 would be too little. Though I agree with Sauce and that a cap should not be set at all. Though math shows us one wolf per 6 villagers...I do not always trust math. Everyone should just vote for who they think looks the most wolfish.

In my prior post I talked about how usual things were going a long, or atleast they were going a long with the way I expected. Well, Lhuna seems unusually chirpy. I doubt she'll be back today, but a lot of posts for our princess in a short time, mostly filled with junk that's of no use to anyone.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm pleasantly surprised that random accusations aren't just flying around although they may sometimes prove helpful, too. It's time for a little summary about what has been said toDay:



lmp: Gives a rather glum speech and wants everyone to buy a silver knife. Says the Seers cannot be trusted, but they should remain hidden. However, the Seers should leave subtle clues that help us when they're dead. Disagrees with Glirdan's "lynch the quiet ones" suggestion because we can't know how the wolves will act. Thinks that wolves can usually be spotted based on how they suspect others or make theories how a lycan could act. Thinks Aiwendil's questions make him look innocent. Somewhat agrees with spreading the votes widely, agrees with Sauce on the voting. Also agrees with tar-a's suggestion to act as though we didn't have the Seers, but says that the usual Seer talk may help us to find the wolves.

Anguirel: Talks about bank stuff, thinks Polonius was an idiot. Disagrees with lmp that stating possible wolf strategies is necessarily wolvish. Agrees with tar-a's Seer plan, wants the Seers to talk "with manifold, contorted tongues". Says it's ludicrous to think that the wolves are acting collectively instead of taking different approaches on the situation based on their skills.

Glirdan: Laments for the dead, says we're in a terrible state, but luckily we have the Guardian and the Hunter. Wants to lynch the silent ones. Votes for Gil because of his occupation.

- Well, I assume the vote was due to his occupation because at this point Gil hasn't even spoken yet, although I think he might be trying to get rid of a not so talkative villager because of... hmm, some bad memories. -

Boro: Promises to authorize all lynchings if there's enough proof of wolvery, prefers a noose to lmp's knives. Says that the discussion has been good, but nothing new has been said. Thinks Sauce is innocent and mormegil, Glirdan, lmp and Gil has acted as usual. All in all thinks that everything seems (even a bit too) usual. Says the false Seer can cause a whole lot of confusion, would trust the Seer to authorize the lynching of a wolf, but as long as we don't know who the false Seer is, it's problematic.

tar-a: Says she's safe from the wolves although stresses the word EX-leper. Says fear and money are great motivators although she has just the fear part of the combination. Thinks we should act as though we didn't have the Seers at all. Says the wolves are looking for the Seers, but not too hard because they want to keep us in doubt. Doesn't think tha we should suspect those who disagree with the "we have no Seers" plan or those who seem to be calling out the Seers because it's too easy for the wolves. Doesn't think we can decide what's suspicious and what's not.

Aiwendil: Says random accusations are useless for innocents, wants to have serious discussion, asks questions about good ways to spot a wolf, how the Gifteds should act and how to vote. Wants to spread votes wider than lmp and thinks approx. 5-6 is a good number. Thinks we don't have to worry about the false Seer so much even though they might cause confusion. Says there's no need to stop talking about the Seers although they should remain hidden. Says the Seer is most useful when they're dead and we can be sure of their identity.

- Although lmp and Lhuna seem to think that Aiwendil is innocent because of the questions he asked, I think it would be a good way for wolves to poll people what they think to be suspicious and ask how the Gifteds are probably acting and then adjust their behaviour to look innocent based on the answers.
I agree about the Seer thing, though. We're in a tricky situation. If someone steps forth and says that they're the seer, no one can know if they're telling the truth. -

Sauce: Wants everyone to step forth to talk and vote, wants people to spread their votes and understands Glirdan's suggestion to kill the silent people, but doesn't quite agree. Referring to Aiwendil's questions says that we should focus on everything people say and do and finds the voting record impostant. Trusts the Gifteds' own judgement to decide how to act, thinks everyone should vote in a way that seems best to them.

Kath: Says that it's a bad thing that we have wolves here, but is happy as long as her honey business is safe.

morm: Brags about his soldier skills, says that two of Gil, tar-a, Celuien and Holby are wolves. Says soldiers are better than knights and thinks that Lhuna's proudness may mean that she has pointed ears. Also says that everyone except Gil has answered his accusations as expected,but doesn't reveal his thoughts of them yet.

Farael: Tries to rid us of the wolves with Chemistry, isn't convinced that tar-a's an EX-leper and therefore wants to prepare sulfonamides for her.

Gil: Says that he admires lupines, but doesn't want to be one, warns Glirdan about senseless voting.

Holby: Defends herself against morm's accusations. thinks that it's supicious when people take accusations that are presented jokingly too seriously.

- If you mean that when someone who is being accused as a joke takes it seriously, it's wolvish, then I agree. However, I don't think that other villagers should disregard the accusations that people say against each other even though they seemed like a joke. -

Wants the Gifteds to lay low, but not too much (or Glirdan will want to lynch them). Doesn't want them to be obvious but clear enough although they shouldn't get themselves killed. Says that if the Seers are in danger of getting lynched, they should reveal themselves and provide us a list of their dreams, thinks spreading the votes is good.

Celuien: Laments over the dead, defends herself against morm's accusations, says tar-a and Ang look much more suspicious than her, says the Gifteds should stay hidden.

- Hmm, morm's accusation was a joke (I should think). Why is Celuien trying to shift "suspicion" on tar-a and Ang? -

Lhuna: Claims to be an extraordinary villager and she must not end up dead in any case. Says Glirdan should be lynched for his suggestion and laments the time zones.

- I don't think Glirdan meant you, Lhuna, with lynching the silent ones... right now you've spoken the most. -

Agrees completely with Sauce on focusing on everything although warns about analyzing too much what people say, agrees with tar-a concerning the Seers and with lmp on Aiwendil looking innocents. Threatens people if they should suspect her for voting early. Answers morm's accusations, says that people shouldn't insult Formendacil and wonders how the wolves will react to the village acting like it had no Seers. Says the wolves are hunting for both Seers and probably will go after the quiet ones first. Wonders if we should take a look at those who are calling out the Seers or disagree with tar-a's suggestion. Votes for Glirdan whom she thinks to be most likely innocent. Forbids anyone to suspect her because of her vote.

Nilp: Asks Sauce's opinion of his sign, wants to sing a ballad and votes for Farael as promised.


***

I'm a bit surprised that so many people are giving advice for the Gifteds about how to act. I'm sure they can decide themselves what to do better than us who don't actually even know who they are and how they usually act. This is not "hide the Gifteds". We are trying to find the Wolves. I'm sure the Gifteds can manage on their own pretty well, so let's leave them for a while and focus on the possible wolves, shall we?

More thoughts later.

Edit: Sauce and Boro's last posts aren't included in my summary.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Good heavens! What has happened to our beautiful home? Monsters and demons, O my! I warned you, I warned you all! Our Holy Lord will not stand for such wickedness and debauchery as has been demonstrated here in recent times. Whither morality, I ask? It is not too late, though. My Church will forgive and welcome all sinners (especially at this time when the funds are running low).

Now, to catch these wolves.

My ancestors (at least those who were genuinely trying to catch wolves ;) ) all told me a similar story, that being that other villagers will ridicule you for trying to read too much into Day One's discussion; and they were bitter and furious about it! For sure, we don't have voting records or tell-tale deaths to work with, but we certainly have the 'feel' of the village to gauge. That is why I will always try to imagine What would a wolf do? How would a wolf post? And if that makes someone in this village suspicious of me then I say: Don't be silly! I believe (and please debate this with me) that on Day One, wolves are going to be mostly timid: not too keen on offering big ideas, convoluted strategies, or hardline accusations.

Of course, there's not a lot to work with, but I totally disagree with those who lament poor discussion as being 'Just a Day One.'

*looks sharply at Lhuna*

*is quickly defeated in the staring-contest because of her beauty and power*

Goodness gracious me, what am I saying? The lovely Princess has ever been a friend of the Church. And it simply would not be right to lynch a being of such majesty, would it? Now Princess, about the state of my church...

[Holbytlass]

Thank you, Spawn, for the summary. It certainly has brought up a bit of questionable behavior to light that would need further analyzing.

- If you mean that when someone who is being accused as a joke takes it seriously, it's wolvish, then I agree. However, I don't think that other villagers should disregard the accusations that people say against each other even though they seemed like a joke. -
True, but what I was trying to explain as another wolvish behavior for example:a third person trying to get Mormegil lynched based solely on his obvious joking-type random accusations to get discussions started, especially if the village as a whole feels what Morm did was harmless-that third person seems wolvish.

[tar-ancalime]

dancing spawn, I'm sure you put a lot of work into that and I do appreciate that.

However, what exactly are we supposed to take from it? All you've done is summarize today's posts, out of order. You seem to have given equal weight to the very first few posts of the Day (in which people are, as usual, drawing heavily on occupations for the sake of having something to write about), and the posts that followed in which we (lamentably) discussed the Seer situation. I just don't see what a summary like that can tell us.

Now, on to other matters:

Originally posted by The Man with the Pans, directed at Elempi:

Too much Seer talk can only help the Wolves. How do you envisage that it might ensnare them? Surely it is better to focus our discussions on who might be the Wolves, rather than on how the Seers should be behaving.

You know, I'm with you, Saucey. The more time we spend on "who's the Seer? What should s/he do?", the less time we spend on "Who's a wolf? What are they up to?"

But on the other hand...

lmp's comments are not to be dismissed. It might be that early Seer talk could become useful later in the game as an artifact, once some identities (preferably at least one wolf) are known. We could look to see who was most eager to deflect discussion onto the Gifteds, for example.

But that's going to be true of every kind of discussion, and I just don't think it's a compelling argument. In the end Saucey is right. We've got to focus on lynching a wolf tonight and creating a useful voting record.

The above is my last Seer-related comment. I'm done. (That's there to keep me honest--as strongly as I feel about this, I know I'm as susceptible as anyone to getting drawn into ongoing discussions. Maybe I'll be able to refrain if I've got this statement on the record.)

Now, to matters at hand--

Something about dancing spawn's post really rubs me the wrong way. It's so long, so intricate, and so devoid of any new information. Being as it's the first day and all, and as my vote is going to have to come in the next few hours, unless I see anything that compels me to place my vote elsewhere I'm likely to go with the dancing spider.

[Anguirel]

It must be admitted that Her Royal Highness' choice of vote is a strange and unhappy one.

On this day when the field is open and the evidence flimsy, why target a musician, whose songs and tunes will help allay the sorrows of these times? If all the world's a stage, Glirdan's art will liven that stage. We would be fools to rid ourselves of him without a solid basis.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

True, but what I was trying to explain as another wolvish behavior for example:a third person trying to get Mormegil lynched based solely on his obvious joking-type random accusations to get discussions started, especially if the village as a whole feels what Morm did was harmless-that third person seems wolvish.I agree with that.

tar-a, I certainly don't know if you can get anything out of the summary. However, it helps me to gather my thoughts, and when I list the posts like that, it's easy to see if people have really said something useful in their posts or are they just babbling something about their occupations, because to me those who post much yet say little are the most suspicious ones. The summary is in the most logical order I could think of: it's the order in which people made their first post toDay.

Also, when I hopefully can come up with a decent theory during a Day, I find many of the things I use as an argument in one post and I don't have to browse the whole thread through when trying to find something. So, I guess I've always done those summaries for selfish reasons, but if they happen to help other villagers to gather their thoughts as well, it's all the better. ;)

[Anguirel]

I believe (and please debate this with me) that on Day One, wolves are going to be mostly timid: not too keen on offering big ideas, convoluted strategies, or hardline accusations.


Nonsense, priest! A wolf plays to their strengths, pure and simple, and their enjoyments and appetites. If one of the wolves is of the type who likes to confuse and irritate his fellow-villagers with a master-plan or a good deal of loquacity, rest assured he will. The situation of being outnumbered and unleashed by day can prompt wolves to stunning and unheard of talkativity. As you well know, I deem.

[Gil-Galad]

++Glirdan



too wolfish for me, i don't quite trust him, hes acting somewhat rash, either hes a confused vilalger or more probably the cobbler

[The Saucepan Man]

I guess that the time has come for me to share my thoughts on my fellow villagers. We are, of course, still at a very early stage, but this is the way I am currently thinking.

Farael: Not a lot to go on. I would still like to hear more from him.

Mormegil: Nothing out of the ordinary from morm so far. I have no particular reason to suspect him at this stage.

Aiwendil: Has prompted some useful debate on strategies which is, frankly, more helpful on Day 1 than random accusations. That said, his comments did also prompt all this Seer talk, which I don’t like. I am keeping an eye on him.

Glirdan: His behaviour seems too risky for a Wolf to me. If a Wolf had to vote early, why vote for someone who generally comes under suspicion as a matter of course and so could well end up being lynched? It could be a bluff, but I’m inclined to think not for the moment.

Formendacil: Hmm, I would have hoped for something a bit more constructive. Reserving judgment for now.

Dancing spawn of ungoliant: Unlike tar-ancalime, I found her summary quite useful. Particularly as she included some of her own thoughts, which seemed sensible and some of which struck a chord with me. Coming across as innocent, although that always makes me worry. :rolleyes:

Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why.

Lhunardawen: I remain concerned over her vote for Glirdan. I am also puzzled as to why she felt so threatened by Glirdan’s suggestion to lynch the quiet ones, when she has been one of the more talkative villagers to date. A bold Wolf, if she is one, but it’s possible.

Eomer of the Rohirrim: Not really enough to go on at the moment, although I would agree with his general approach to catching Wolves.

Littlemanpoet: Guilty, obviously. ;) That said, I am uncomfortable with the way that he seems to have fanned the flames of the Seer debate. And I don’t like the way that he suggested that trying to think how a Wolf might act could be a sign of Wolfish behaviour. How else are we to catch these beasts? One to watch.

Kath: Nothing to go on. Again, I would like to hear more from her.

Garin: Still hasn’t graced us with his company, although there may well be good reason for that. Reserving judgment.

Holbytlass: Reacted slightly defensively to morm’s random accusation, but not to the degree that Celuin did. I am not reading too much into that at the moment.

Anguirel: A bit mercenary, but has generally talked good sense, albeit in a rather flowery fashion. No strong suspicions at the moment.

Celuien: Like dancing spawn, I was struck by her attempt to divert attention from herself to tar-ancalime and Anguirel in response to morm’s accusation. Has otherwise remained quiet. Looks suspicious as matters stand, but I would like to hear more from her.

Tar-Ancalime: I generally agree with most of what she has said, although I am not quite sure what she sees in dancing spawn’s post to make her suspect her quite so much. That concerns me, but for now I will give her the benefit of the doubt.

Gil-Galad: Very little to go on, as usual. His reaction to Glirdan’s vote seemed measured in the circumstances, but that is all he has contributed so far.

Boromir88: Hasn’t said too much yet, but what he has said has seemed sensible. Not sure what he means about everything being “usual … too usual”. Isn’t that what we should expect on Day 1? Still, no particular reason to suspect him.

Edit: Cross-posted with Gil-Galad and his vote, which looks decidedly un-measured ...

[tar-ancalime]

dancing spawn, you had me at "gather my thoughts." I can certainly understand that, and while my vote today is going to be somewhat random no matter what, I would rather not cast it for you.

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

Mostly random, Eomer, but I have to say: if you're innocent I'm glad to have you on my team, but if you're not I want you out of here before you even get started.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

++Glirdan


too wolfish for me, i don't quite trust him, hes acting somewhat rash, either hes a confused vilalger or more probably the cobbler
Ahem... according to our Moddess Goddess we don't have a cobbler in this village, I believe.

[Anguirel]

I would like to point out that I myself don't see much sign of malign intent in Celuien's so-called "diverted accusation" to tar-ancalime and I. As far as I can see, Celuien, accused via occupational banter, brushed it off via occupational banter, onto others, by using their occupations. I don't discern any real evidence in that...

[littlemanpoet]

I disagree that trying to discover wolves by empathatic thought experiment is necessarily wolvish. It can simply be an effective way of exploiting what we know of character and likely strategy to our benefit.I've fallen behind but will catch up, responding to one post at a time.

As to your rebuttal to me retort, Anguirel, I was saying that it helps me lean. By itself it is not enough, but in concert with other signs it ways the more heavily.

[littlemanpoet]

I disagree (with LMP). Too much Seer talk can only help the Wolves. How do you envisage that it might ensnare them? Surely it is better to focus our discussions on who might be the Wolves, rather than on how the Seers should be behaving. ... I will be keeping an eye on those who seem to be encouraging this talk of Seers. *Glares at littlemanpoet and Aiwendil*

:rolleyes: SPM, if you agreed with me at any point in time about anything, I would be greatly surprised. So that aspect of things is unchanged.

To answer your "envisage" question, however, I don't. I wait to see what I will see. If I "envisage" how I think things ought to look, it tends to limit my ability to see what's staring me in the face. Such as this: there's something about SPM that just seems a little off (this game). I can't really explain it, but will be reviewing his posts much more carefully. Things sound and look the same on the surface, but there's an undercurrent that I can't quite put my finger on, and it makes me wonder if he's furry. I'll be watching. Carefully.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Anguirel, I hear you. But I do suppose that the burden of being a wolf would cause any player a worry, and a tendency to blunt their words. I expect many 'Ooh, I'm sorry for voting this way's and 'I'll vote for you but I'm really not sure's—that kind of thing from any wolf, as long as they are not bold. I suppose that at least one and probably more are going to be extremely 'friendly', if you understand me.

Tar-ancalime, my worthy healed child, what has this Priest (who prayed for you every day) ever done to deserve such a vote? ;) Seriously, I would have thought that my posts could offer at least the tiniest bit of insight. You youngsters; no respect for the Church and the traditions of this land... *shakes head*

[Garin]

I'm afraid that I, Garin, have not been as participatory in our village affairs in the manner that I ussually like to be.

I was about to second Nilp's early call to silence the silents for once and all, because this Is my usual initial suggestion in these god-forsaken villages. File it in the 'better than nothing but pretty close to it" category.
Now I can understand how events can turn against you and force an abbreviated absence. However, I think our village should address those that are repeatedly quiet/unuseful.

I've just starting reading the last several posts, and will try to add something else soon.

Oh and I forgot the theatrics...

Abercrombie and Shelob are both dead?
WHHHHYYYYYYY??? NOOOOOO!!!! What diety would allow this to happen? They shall be avenged.

As for those villagers trying to fill their purses on the villages' misfortune... I offer the village free bread. We can't get the lupines on empty stomachs. It is a dark rye that was Shelob's favorite. Help yourself.

She was the only one who bought it anyway.

edit: Grammar
edit: Glirdan was the one that suggested the lynch o' the silents. Sorry, I was in a hurry.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Some thoughts of a few villagers:

- Gil received a vote from Glirdan who suggested getting rid of those who don't post much because one of the three wolves is usually a quiet one (this theory may not apply in this village because I think everybody's quite talkative). Well, as it happens, Gil finds now Glirdan wolvish (or was it innocent/ cobblerish?), pulls his usual "I'm stupid, ignore me" act and votes for Glirdan.

There's nothing unexpected in Gil's behaviour and Glirdan's vote for him seems a bit unfair as Gil hadn't even said a word when this vote was cast. However, I think Glirdan just has some traumas of quieter villagers that cannot be healed and I don't think his vote itself looks very wolvish.

- I just noticed that I accidentally left Formendacil out of the summary, but then again, he didn't even say much... I would like to hear more from him as well as from Kath, Celuien and Farael.

- Much of what Lhuna has said is spoken through her role. That doesn't look suspicious to me, but her vote for Glirdan is oddly unreasoned. Was it just because Glirdan suggested killing the silent ones and Lhuna thought that she belonged into that category? However, it is Day One, but I wonder if she really thought that Glirdan was the most likely person to be a wolf at that point. If so, why did she say: "He's most likely innocent, but what can I do?" An excuse for her vote if we should actually lynch Glirdan and then start looking at Lhuna?

- One last thing, it's worrying that I'm getting paranoid already on Day 1, but did someone just say that we want to kill The Rohirrim? :rolleyes: *sigh*

I shall go to eat grass with my sheep. I'll be back later.

[Garin]

I failed to mention my distaste for this false seer business. It gives us a quite a dilemna. (Really Garin? Do go on..)

Our best hope is that the village or even the wolves, kill him or her-- thus revealing their identity. Not that I am clamoring for the death of an innocent, the Falsey just seems to benefit the wolves more.
They know who they are and know who is totally off the mark in identifying them.

I'm sure I am repeating what others have said. I admittedly still need to read several posts.

I have no voting strategy and no suspects, as of yet. I will likely vote late.

I won't say much into I can read all of the posts.

Back to baking....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

We have to remember that Glirdan had to vote early. I must get that in as it looks like I shall also have to vote early. :rolleyes:

My guess is that he chose to vote for Gil because Gil is notoriously quiet and hard to decipher anyway. Lhuna voted for Glirdan pretty much on the basis that he was the only one to vote so far. Gil voted for Glirdan pretty much out of spite. It might be a tremendous place for Glirdan to hide (the very first vote) but I am definitely leaning towards Glirdan's innocence; and possibly a bit of foolishness on the part of Lhuna and Gil. Wolvish? I cannot tell.

[Aiwendil]

The Saucepan Man wrote:
I will be keeping an eye on those who seem to be encouraging this talk of Seers. *Glares at littlemanpoet and Aiwendil*

That said, his comments did also prompt all this Seer talk, which I don’t like.

And what harm, I ask thee, has "all this Seer talk" done? It seems to me that it's in the best interest of the village for us to be speak freely regarding strategy. Wolves thrive on secrecy. I trust that the Seers are intelligent enough to decide for themselves how to act, and that they will take advice from fellow villagers only when it seems suitable to them.

Well, enough about that. In general, though, I'm pleased to see that the Day 1 discussion has been largely one concerning strategy rather than a parade of random accusations.

My thoughts turn now toward my vote. In spite of the (I think) fairly productive discussion so far, it's still Day 1 and we have very little to go on. No one so far has struck me as particularly wolvish; in all likelihood (alas!) my vote will fall upon an innocent. But that's no reason to make it random; I shall at the least endeavour to make a (slightly) educated guess.

Of all the villagers, the one that seems to me to have been the most helpful so far is littlemanpoet. I am inclined, for the moment, to think him innocent. If he's a wolf, then he's one most adept at playing the "helpful thinker" role.

Boromir88 and SPM both seem to be helpful as well. At this early stage, I certainly wouldn't go so far as to call either of them "likely innocent". But it seems to me that neither should be lynched on the first Day.

Glirdan worries me slightly. He calls for the lynching of quiet villagers and then votes for Gil-Galad. Now, I can see how an innocent villager could easily do both of those things. But the vote for Gil-Galad seems a very "safe" move for a wolf.

tar-ancalime is another one I have my eye on. Perhaps I'm reading too much into her posts, but it looks to me like she's eager to find excuses to bring suspicion upon people - first with her proposed moratorium on Seer talk (suggesting perhaps that anyone who talks about the Seers is to be suspected) and then with her statement that Spawn's summary "rubs me the wrong way". She has backed off of both of these, declaring that her moratorium was not intended to be a wolf-test and that Spawn's summary is not suspicious. Could be a wolf testing various approaches and backing off when they seem not to be working.

I realize I am grasping at straws here, but that's as it must be. Again, neither Glirdan nor tar strikes me as "likely a wolf". But based on the rather meager evidence we have so far, I am leaning toward voting for one of them .

[Farael]

Aiwendil: Says random accusations are useless for innocents, wants to have serious discussion, asks questions about good ways to spot a wolf, how the Gifteds should act and how to vote. Wants to spread votes wider than lmp and thinks approx. 5-6 is a good number. Thinks we don't have to worry about the false Seer so much even though they might cause confusion. Says there's no need to stop talking about the Seers although they should remain hidden. Says the Seer is most useful when they're dead and we can be sure of their identity.

I come back to you at the turn of the tide, bringing news of cyclopentanes and thiotriazoles. According to my instruments..... AIWENDIL IS A WOLF!!!

Let's get this day-one accusation started
Now, I know we don't have much to go on as yet. But it seems to me that random accusations and similar nonsense will only help the Wolves. Meseems the sooner we get down to some serious discussion, the better the chances of our village surviving. (post #7)

At the point this was written, there was nothing to go on with. And random accusations are not as useless as my featured acusee will make you think. If you are lucky, you may get the spotlight on a wolf, who will hopefully then make a mistake a honest villager will pick on later. Discussions can be left for later on the day, when villagers like myself have at least some evidence to go on. Such as the one presented above and the next one coming up

The Questions:
Even though one may think that a wolf will want to take a leading role in the village, so that people follow him (or her) while he carefully chooses plausible innocents to be lynched, it is quite a risky move. Only a bold wolf would do such thing, but how about Aiwendil's move? He is basically letting others take the lead, but at the same time he's putting himself on the 'good' side of the leaders. SpM, Morm or LMP are lilkely the most persuasive characters and Aiwendil seems to be trying to get them to trust him. Smart move, if you fear they may make a good case against you, isn't it?

Following piece of 'evidence'

I think people may be worrying a bit too much about the false Seer. True, his/her presence may lead to confusion. Certainly it would be better not to have a false Seer. But bear in mind that a 'dream' from the false Seer is no more likely to be wrong than a random guess by a bewildered villager. As long as we all bear the existence of the false Seer in mind, I think we should get along all right. I certainly don't see any call for a moratorium on talking about the Seer; though I would, again, advise the Seers themselves to stay completely hidden. Note also that, at least in my opinion, the chief value of the Seer is to be gotten after the Seer has died (after a long and fruitful life, I hope) - and when either Seer dies his or her true nature will be revealed to us.

I am not too comfortable with Seer talk in general this early... anything more than passing comments on them makes me cringe... but what really bugs me is what I bolded above. While it is true that we will not know whether the person that says to be the Seer is the true or false seer, it won't take long to realize who the false seer is once he(she) comes forward.

It is an astute and bold move to say that the Seer is useless 'till dead, master Aiwendil. That way, as long as the wolves don't nail the true seer too late, we villagers won't be able to trust whom we believe to be the Seer. And I think Aiwendil is also over-stating the problems the false seer might bring upon us. After all, it might not be long until we lynch someone the false seer has dreamt of and then he(she) will know who he(she) is.

I think you are smart enough to realize that, Aiwendil.... I think you are trying to sow dissent and uncertainty in our ranks.

Let's move on to post #60
And what harm, I ask thee, has "all this Seer talk" done?
Nothing, I think it's helping me to find a wolf

It seems to me that it's in the best interest of the village for us to be speak freely regarding strategy. Wolves thrive on secrecy
Actually, as it has been mentioned before, if we give out our strategy freely, the wolves will know how to avoid suspicion. It's just a matter of 'agreeing' on suspecting a certain kind of behaviour and then avoiding it no matter what!

in all likelihood (alas!) my vote will fall upon an innocent.
I'm never confident on those who try to downplay their votes, but I have done that before, so this is mildly a comment rather than a true piece of evidence. Although in the light of the preceeding points...

Comments on SPM, LMP and Boro
Again, we see Aiwendil trying to be nice to the most vocal ones.

Comments on Tar-ancalime
It's an easy target... If I wasn't so 'convinced' on Aiwendil's guilt, she'd be my prime suspect... but I think Tar-ancalime's mistakes look more like an innocent trying to do too much while Aiwendil's mistakes seem like a wolf trying to hide in plain view.

Again, neither Glirdan nor tar strikes me as "likely a wolf". But based on the rather meager evidence we have so far, I am leaning toward voting for one of them .

Again, trying to downplay his likely vote. While an innocent may say it once, it's now twice in the same post.

To conclude, I think that Aiwendil is being far too safe in his speech. Safe enough that it makes me think he's got something to hide. He's not playing a safe game for a villager because no villager needs to make sure the most vocal one's don't suspect him... an innocent villager knows he's innocent and trusts he will survive long enough to prove so. A guilty wolf needs to make 'friends' quickly, so that he can cast suspicion elswhere without any backlash when it's shown that the lynched person was an innocent (or even worse, a gifted).

For those reasons I say we perform the following reaction

Aiwendil + Gallows =====> Dead wolf

I will come back later with my vote... you can all probably guess who it will most likely go to.

[Farael]

Sorry, I realize you might find my quote of Dancing Spawn a little confusing... I meant to add that it was her comments what got the ball rolling against Aiwendil in my head, but I must have forgotten to write that in. Good job Dancing, but you are not off the hook just yet.

[Anguirel]

I'm strongly tempted to vote for LMP just to give everyone a nice, cosy, everything's falling out just as usual feeling. But I think I will restrain this urge for the time being.

So far-

Glirdan voted Gil

Nilp voted Farael

Lhuna voted Glirdan

Gil revenge-voted Glirdan

and tar-ancalime voted Eomer of the Rohirrim.

This means that I'm inclined to clear tar-ancalime for the moment. I don't agree with her choice, but it looks like a sensible and worthy attempt to stop the village getting bogged down in a Glirdan-Gil feud.

Gil on the other hand committed the cardinal sin of changing a throwaway early vote into a potential bandwagon. However, I'm not going to vote for him either, because it would be conformist and tedious to do so.

The people tempting me at the moment are three old favourites-LMP as mentioned above;

LMP's rival the Saucepan Man. While LMP's assertion that he possesses an unusual malevolent undercurrent seems like so much hot-air, the Viscount Kettle is sounding more reasonable in their confrontation at present and I always like to discomfit reasonable people;

And Boromir88, above all. For all Aiwendil's assertion that he looks like one of the helpful ones, he hasn't really said all that much, except the infamous "Seems to be business as usual" post. A lot of noose-babble too, well shown up by dancing spawn. Yes, I think Boromir88 is my likely target, unless the need of the moment changes.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, the time approaches for me to vote, as I cannot be sure that I will be back later. But first …

I don’t particularly like Gil-Galad’s reaction vote for Glirdan, but it does seem fairly standard behaviour for him. I am wary of suspecting the quiet and/or confusing villagers when that is there usual pattern of behaviour, but that of course does not clear him either. I would like to hear more from him, but I’m not confident that we will.

Something about dancing spawn's post really rubs me the wrong way. It's so long, so intricate, and so devoid of any new information. Being as it's the first day and all, and as my vote is going to have to come in the next few hours, unless I see anything that compels me to place my vote elsewhere I'm likely to go with the dancing spider.

Mostly random, Eomer, but I have to say: if you're innocent I'm glad to have you on my team, but if you're not I want you out of here before you even get started.This seems mighty strange to me. As far as I can see, nothing occurred between these two comments to “compel” tar to place her vote elsewhere. While I disagreed with her analysis of dancing spawn’s summary, I can see no particular reason to vote for Eomer either. And I am entirely unconvinced of the merits of voting for someone that you accept will be a valuable ally if innocent on the off chance that they may not. That would apply to most here.

I would like to point out that I myself don't see much sign of malign intent in Celuien's so-called "diverted accusation" to tar-ancalime and I.Well, it is Day 1, so we don’t have a whole lot to go on. I regard it a suspicious, but I would prefer to hear more from her before drawing any stronger conclusion than that.

... there's something about SPM that just seems a little off (this game). I can't really explain it, but will be reviewing his posts much more carefully. Things sound and look the same on the surface, but there's an undercurrent that I can't quite put my finger on, and it makes me wonder if he's furry. I'll be watching. Carefully.Well, well, what a surprise. Lmp and The Saucepan Man suspect each other. :D Of course, it is rather difficult for me to comment on my seeming “a little off” to you. :rolleyes:

[Garin]

I am quite displeased that I will not have time to examine every post to the extent I would like to and my vote will not be as informed as I desire. Tomorrow is another day.

Anguirel said: Yes, I think Boromir88 is my likely target, unless the need of the moment changes.

I guess i didn't appreciate Boro's early statement about approving the village's vote for the wolf. Probably, just playing in character. But it also sounds like a wolf's dream job.

This is all I can manage today.

Probably will only have time for a quick vote.

Good luck, all.

[Celuien]

Okay then, I'm back. Looks like there's been a lot going on since I took a nap and went to work this morning...

First, I'm not inclined to vote for Glirdy. Under most circumstances, I would find his early vote for Gil alarming, but then I checked the village bulletin board and saw his notice of time constraints. So I don't find that nearly enough to go on and would rather give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

For that matter, I'm not really finding much to go on, though, like SpM, I find tar-ancalime's shift from suspicion of spawn to a vote for Eomer odd. Must watch carefully.

As for my 'diversion,' Ang's right. Just occupational banter to open a conversation. Shine the lights on my lily pad as you see fit. I enjoy attention. :D

More later. I have to read the thread some more.

[Aiwendil]

Farael: What can I say? Except - sorry, wrong. In some cases, I think you are simply reading too much into my words. In others, you seem to have misunderstood me. For instance, you say:

And I think Aiwendil is also over-stating the problems the false seer might bring upon us.

But what I had in fact said was:
I think people may be worrying a bit too much about the false Seer

If that's "over-stating the problems", I'll eat my hat (once it's been properly seasoned, of course).

Also, I did not claim "that the Seer is useless 'till dead". I said that it seems to me that the Seer's greatest value is after he/she has been revealed (usually by death).

Anguirel wrote:
And Boromir88, above all. For all Aiwendil's assertion that he looks like one of the helpful ones, he hasn't really said all that much, except the infamous "Seems to be business as usual" post.

You make a good point. Looking back, I see that Boromir88 has appeared helpful while saying very little. It seems to me that this is just what a wolf would most like to do. However, I still don't see any particular reason to suspect Boromir at this point.

My vote will probably go to Tar-ancalime, for reasons stated earlier (and not to Glirdan because it seems better for the votes to be spread out). But I am not pressed for time and I will consider things again before making that final.

[Formendacil]

My apologies to all for my lack of participation thus far... coming down sick at work does very little for the brain- or for playing this game in general.

That said, I've always found posting on Day 1 to be a general waste of time for me. As noted elsewhere, I try to guess Werewolves by who seems to be playing wrong. With Day 1 being a journey through the absurd and with the game not having gone on long enough to detect any oddities in playing style, it seems pointless for me to post, since I have nothing to say.

Furthermore, the old police adage about "Anything you say can and will be used against you" comes to mind. If one has nothing to say, then posting randomly so as not to appear suspicious is pointless, since people will find your posting just as suspicious as your not-posting.

[The Saucepan Man]

And now I must vote.

For reasons that I have stated earlier, my main suspects at this point in time are elempi, Celuin and Lhunadarwen. I am also concerned about tar-ancalime’s flip-flop vote. However, she was talking sense before that so I am prepared, for now, to regard it as an attempt to break up the “Glirdan-Gil” feud, as Anguirel puts it.

I will content myself with keeping an eye on lmp for the time being. I find him suspicious but, if innocent, he will undoubtedly be of great benefit to the village. And a vote for him from me now seems a bit peevish, if you get my meaning. :D

Since I said that I would prefer to hear further from Celuin before acting on my suspicions arising from her reaction to morm’s random accusation, I will hold to that. There is simply not enough to go on with her at this stage.

Which leaves me with Lhunardawen. Her vote for Glirdan seemed to be picking on too easy a target for my liking, given his very early vote for Gil-Galad. And despite trying to label herself as one of the quiet ones, she seems to have been rather eager to make her presence felt while she was here. It’s not a lot to go on, but that’s pretty standard for Day 1. And it’s just about the most that I have to go on at the moment.

++LHUNARDAWEN

[Celuien]

Our best hope is that the village or even the wolves, kill him or her-- thus revealing their identity. Not that I am clamoring for the death of an innocent, the Falsey just seems to benefit the wolves more.
They know who they are and know who is totally off the mark in identifying them.
.

True, but worst case scenario is that False Seer identifies an innocent as a wolf and the village acts on the false information. So where does that take us?

1) We've attacked an innocent and reduced our population by one, something we're sadly likely to do anyway over the next few days. Then we the information given was incorrect and also know who the False Seer is. So...
2) We've identified one known innocent for the next day. One less person for the suspect list in the next day's discussions. Unless the wolves decide to eat him/her overnight. Then we're back where we started.

Altogether, I don't think the False Seer hurts the village that much, since we're not likely to be following directions for long if incorrect.

The only caveat would be a wolf impersonating a False Seer. But that's an event that would bring one or both Seers out fairly quickly and reveal a wolf in the third candidate. That's not something I'm particularly expecting to see.

And that, my friends, will be the last Seer related commentary I make toDAY.

*continues reviewing the discussion archives*

[Anguirel]

Well, I believe I now have the confidence to vote thus:

++BOROMIR88

I have often suffered through refraining to vote for Boromir...but never through voting for him! Let's see if this fits the pattern.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Mormegil's post #29 is a bit weird. Remember he had previously accused tar-ancalime, Celuien, Gil and Holbytlass (seemingly randomly). In #29 he says that they had all responded in the way he had expected them to (apart from Gil). What happened was this: Holby and Celuien laughed it off; tar-ancalime didn't even mention it; and Gil defended himself against Glirdan's vote, not mentioning Mormegil either. Mormegil then says he will continue to hold them (whoever 'they' are) in high suspicion.

I'm not accusing you Morm; I just find the post to be rather strange and would appreciate an explanation.

I'll have to vote very soon. While tar's vote for me does seem slightly odd, I'm hesitating to vote for her because it will look like it's done out of spite. Saucepan Man, you have also commented on tar's vote. Do you think there could possibly be unity between tar and dancing spawn, and that they tried to insert a little bit of early animosity between them? Dancing spawn did say something like she couldn't believe that someone wanted to kill 'the rohirrim' or something I couldn't quite understand, and inserted a Sarcastic Smilie. Maybe she just loves me. Or maybe those two lassies might be worth keeping an eye on.

[Farael]

If that's "over-stating the problems", I'll eat my hat (once it's been properly seasoned, of course).

Also, I did not claim "that the Seer is useless 'till dead". I said that it seems to me that the Seer's greatest value is after he/she has been revealed (usually by death).


Garlic or salt?
In the same sentence you say
But bear in mind that a 'dream' from the false Seer is no more likely to be wrong than a random guess by a bewildered villager
Which is far too 'dramatic' given that, for example, should the False Seer 'discover' a gifted or a wolf, we can be comfident that that person will NOT be a gifted or a wolf(probability of the random draw being a gifted/wolf is 3/19 and the probability of that person being actually a gifted or a wolf is also 3/19... therefore the probability of the person that the False Seer dreamt a gifted/wolf being actually a gifted/wolf is 3/19 X 3/19 =0.025 or 2.5%). While it's not nearly as certain as what the True Seer will say, it's still something to go with, specially this early in the game.

And while, true, I maybe expressed myself wrong.... you say "people are worrying too much, the false seer is completely useless." yet I just showed you he's not totally useless. Worst case scenario, another known innocent. And then you say "the true seer is most useful when dead" so my point that you are trying to move us away from looking for hints of Seer'ism 'till the Seer is dead (when it might be too late to do anything about it, as guessing at subtle 'hints' is by no means a science.) still holds. Or I think it does.

If you really want to adress my suspcions, do explain why you try to befriend all the loud ones?

Until you do, and given that I must go now (quite ironically, to a Chem Lab in RL)

I shall vote

++Aiwendil

[Formendacil]

Being sick, being clueless, and being intent on keeping the pool of candidates wide open for lynching, I shall join forces with my "Twin" and vote:

++ Boromir88

[Celuien]

Of Aiwendil and Farael:

I have to disagree with Farael's analysis of our local cook. Aiwendil merely looks to have been discussing strategy and feeling the same day 1 uncertainty with regard to his vote that should pretty much be expected given that there's no real evidence at this point. And honestly, I don't see anything in Aiwendil's commentary that jumps out as deceptive or distracting. While Farael is concerned over the 'safety' of his posts, it doesn't really seem like the same type of 'safe' post I'd expect from the lupine. It's only safe in that what he said seemed rational and non-controversial. But what he said was helpful, not an empty. And while I know there's been some upset over discussing gifteds early, it's a reasonable enough to address concerns over the un-gifted member of our Seer pair (there, I went and said that word again :rolleyes: ). Could Aiwendil be a wolf? Yes. Any of us could be. But I don't find it particularly likely right now. And so I'll dismiss him from my ballot toDAY.

And as for Farael, the boldness of his accusations clears him from toDAY's suspect list as far as I'm concerned. It would be a brazen wolf who would come out that noisily against a villager today when it would be so much easier to join the general confusion and bandwagon or to make a random selection that leaves no evidence for future discussion.

[Anguirel]

We now have seven candidates on offer:

Gil
Farael
Glirdan
Eomer
Lhuna
Boromir

and

Aiwendil.

Methinks the vote is perhaps spread enough...

EDIT: Cross-posted with Formendacil's vote, an interesting development, and Celuien's post

[mormegil]

I've been out busy with the soldier business and it's taken more time than I would like it to. However let me weigh in on some things and put forward my suspicions.

Tar, I do suspect but for reasons that have been stated. I would like to vote for her but I think I will hold my hand for the time being and not spread out votes further.

Celuien I do find her moderately suspicious. The way she responded was odd and her behavior since has been a bit on the defensive. I don't think I will vote for her but I will watch.

Farael I think his post about Aiwendil was helpful, though I don't entirely agree with him I think he is on the right track.

Anguirel I don't understand half of what he says, I guess I'm a simple man of war and not a banker that speaks to naught but coins all day. Anyway, his sudden onset of suspicion towards Boromir is odd. While I can see some of his point I would find this behavior a bit more suspicious on day 2 or 3. On day 1 there really isn't a lot to go on. However what really is nagging me about Ang is how he outlined his suspcions and then almost as an afterthought included Boromir in it and then went fully after him.

Gil-Galad. I may actually vote for him because of his behavior and if not now when? He'll be the constant enigma and everyday we will be wondering.

So

++Gil-Galad

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Formendacil's vote for Boromir88—he attempts to pass the blame to Anguirel should it prove nasty for the village. Could be nothing; but isn't Formendacil usually more vocal? Not at all convinced by the whole 'Day One is too hard to judge yet anyway' argument.

Sorry Lhuna but royalty or non-royalty, promise to defend you or no promise, little sister or not ( :( ), your vote strikes me as wolvish. The whole 'Oh, I'm sorry Glirdan, you're probably innocent but what can I do?' seems a bit too friendly and wanting-to-be-loved. Not so much the way you voted but how you voted.

++LHUNARDAWEN

Others I'm most suspicious of: Spawn, Tar, Mormegil, Formendacil. A lot of villagers are looking innocent to me but we all know how quickly things change.

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:
should the False Seer 'discover' a gifted or a wolf, we can be comfident that that person will NOT be a gifted or a wolf

Sorry, but this is wrong. The False Seer's dreams are random - so the False Seer's dream is no more nor less reliable than a random guess. You seem to be continuing to misconstrue and complicate the few points I made about the False Seer. Normally, I'd say you're behaving very Cobblerish, but apparently we've no Cobbler! So I tend to think you are simply a mistaken villager. I agree with Celuin that your accusation is unlikely for a wolf - though I suppose it might be a very bold move.

Anguirel wrote:
Methinks the vote is perhaps spread enough...

This makes me wonder whether I should follow through on my earlier analysis and vote for Tar-ancalime. Seven candidates is a lot already. Must think on it.

[Aiwendil]

Okay, on second thought, as I don't particularly suspect anyone on the list, and since the more I think about it, the more wolvish Tar-Ancalime looks to me, I will vote:

++Tar-ancalime

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ah yes, I should say I deliberately picked out of the 7 (or 6 in my case ;) ) that had already been voted for. I wouldn't have, though, if I hadn't found any of them suspicious.

[mormegil]

I'm not accusing you Morm; I just find the post to be rather strange and would appreciate an explanation.

It has served it's purpose and generated some conversation. And by all means feel free to accuse me.

[Garin]

True, but worst case scenario is that False Seer identifies an innocent as a wolf and the village acts on the false information. So where does that take us?

My hope is that we luck upon the false seer, but that's like saying I hope we find out who the werewolves are.

I was leaning towards Boromir but then got busy at work and cross-posted with a few votes for Boro.
I'm now leaning towards Lluna to even things out.

Even Gil, but I always want to vote for him.

Anybody have a quick tally, my internet time is limited?
be back in 15.

[Anguirel]

Gil-2
Farael-1
Glirdan-2
Eomer-1
Lhuna-2
Boromir-2
Aiwendil-1
tar-ancalime-1

I think.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I need to go soon and I shall cast my vote in a moment. However, a few things before that.

Farael makes some good points about Aiwendil in his theory. Some good arguments have been presented against tar-ancalime, too. However, at this point neither seem very suspicious, plus it's usually a bad sign if Sauce and I agree on a theory... the suspect is bound to be innocent. :p ;)

As far as I can see, nothing occurred between these two comments to “compel” tar to place her vote elsewhere.
Actually, tar-a said why she dropped her suspicions of me:dancing spawn, you had me at "gather my thoughts." I can certainly understand that, and while my vote today is going to be somewhat random no matter what, I would rather not cast it for you. Well, everyone can ponder themselves if that's a good enough reason for them, but it's a reason nonetheless.

The only caveat would be a wolf impersonating a False Seer. But that's an event that would bring one or both Seers out fairly quickly and reveal a wolf in the third candidate. That's not something I'm particularly expecting to see.I can't believe I'm getting into this, too, but how so? The only way we can indentify a wolf if s/he's playing a Seer is if one of the Seers is already dead. Neither of the real Seers know which is the false one and therefore can't step forward and question if the wolf in a Seer's costume really is the other Seer. Hey, can the Seer choose to dream of themselves? It's probable that the false one would get some other answer as 'Seer' to his/her dream and they would know that their dreams mean nothing... Okay, that's enough. Now, the voting.

Frankly, I have no idea whom I will vote toDay. I'll go doing some rereading before I vote.

[Farael]

Sorry, but this is wrong. The False Seer's dreams are random - so the False Seer's dream is no more nor less reliable than a random guess.

The False Seer's dreams are random.... so if the False Seer finds a gifted or wolf, odds are it won't be true... as I said before. If the False seer finds a wolf, there's a 97.5% chance that it's actually an innocent or gifted.... if the False Seer finds a Gifted, there's a 97.5% chance it's actually a wolf or innocent... and for the first days, that's a heck of a good chance.

[Aiwendil]

Dancing Spawn wrote:
The only way we can indentify a wolf if s/he's playing a Seer is if one of the Seers is already dead. Neither of the real Seers know which is the false one and therefore can't step forward and question if the wolf in a Seer's costume really is the other Seer.

Well, if a wolf claimed to be a Seer, then both Seers could come forward. It still could cause a good deal of confusion, though. I, for one, will be rather skeptical about anyone who claims to be a Seer.

[Kath]

With little time available to me toDay I won't have the opportunity to go through all these posts as thoroughly as I would like, and so rather than go through half and perhaps make a bad call on the basis of that I'll vote

++GIL

Because, ok, it takes a couple of Days sometimes to get into the swing of things, but not even reading the list of what roles are in is a bit off. Also, his vote, which seemed to be pure revenge for Glirdan's vote for him, which was an admittedly random vote. This is all pretty usual stuff for Gil, but perhaps we should stop letting people off for 'just being <insert name here> and get rid of them.

I apologise for the lack of involvement. I'll do better!

[Anguirel]

The False Seer's dreams are random.... so if the False Seer finds a gifted or wolf, odds are it won't be true... as I said before. If the False seer finds a wolf, there's a 97.5% chance that it's actually an innocent or gifted.... if the False Seer finds a Gifted, there's a 97.5% chance it's actually a wolf or innocent... and for the first days, that's a heck of a good chance.

Never rely on good chances, m'boy. A financially unsound tactic.

[Aiwendil]

Farael: It seems to be almost a moot point, but:
If the False seer finds a wolf, there's a 97.5% chance that it's actually an innocent or gifted.... if the False Seer finds a Gifted, there's a 97.5% chance it's actually a wolf or innocent... and for the first days, that's a heck of a good chance.

Yes, but this has nothing to do with him/her being the False Seer. Anyone could accomplish just as much on his/her own by picking a person and rolling some dice to determine a random "dream".

But I'm not even sure what the point of this argument is anymore . . .

[Celuien]

I can't believe I'm getting into this, too, but how so? The only way we can indentify a wolf if s/he's playing a Seer is if one of the Seers is already dead. Neither of the real Seers know which is the false one and therefore can't step forward and question if the wolf in a Seer's costume really is the other Seer. Hey, can the Seer choose to dream of themselves? It's probable that the false one would get some other answer as 'Seer' to his/her dream and they would know that their dreams mean nothing... Okay, that's enough. Now, the voting.

Arrgh, I would have to get drawn back into this, wouldn't I?

Suppose a wolf steps forward and says, "Hey, I'm the Seer. So-and-so is a wolf. Lynch him." Village acts and finds out the statement was incorrect. Both real Seers remain hidden. Then the village thinks that they've found the false Seer. So far, we have a wolf hiding out as the false Seer. So yes, as long as ONLY the wolf has come forward, the wolf is safe. But that's a mighty risky position to be in, because sooner or later, whether by self-declaration or death, one of the actual Seers will be revealed. And then the second one definitely knows the wolf is a phony. I guess I just view Seer impersonation as a bad wolf strategy because it dooms the impersonator, even if not immediately. If I implied we would figure it out right away, I apologize. That's not what I meant.

EDIT: cross-posted with Aiwendil, Kath, Farael and Anguirel.

[Holbytlass]

No one stands out so suspicious that I'm confident in my vote but Lhuna and Tar-anca are two that got my gut tingling.
Lhuna because of the Feanor-like manner of saying "don't lynch me I'm special"-yes could be occupational banter.
Tar-anca, because even if one does not agree with the analysis, it's weird to get bent out of shape just because a person posts their thoughts.

++Tar-ancalime

[Celuien]

Just realized the deadline is drawing near. I'm going to have to vote now.

++GIL

Essentially for the same reasons as Kath gave and because I'm not finding much reason to suspect anyone else. Boromir, granted, isn't quite acting the way I would expect and that's worrying me, but I'd rather vote for Gil and be wrong than have that happen for Boro since I'm fairly certain that Boro won't continue in enigma mode. And I'd missed that quote from tar-a that spawn pointed out just now, so my main point of suspicion against her is now gone.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Arrgh, I would have to get drawn back into this, wouldn't I?Sorry. :D

Well, if a wolf claimed to be a Seer, then both Seers could come forward. It still could cause a good deal of confusion, though. I, for one, will be rather skeptical about anyone who claims to be a Seer.But the Seers don't know that it's not one of the actual Seers who's revealing him/herself but a wolf unless the real Seer has dreamed of the false one and knows who s/he is. Then there's what Celuien said, but I don't think that there's anything we can do about it, so let's use our energy for catching the wolves.

Quite a few votes were cast while I wrote my last post. If Anguirel's list is correct, we already have eight lynching candidates:

Gil
Farael (Who voted for him? I can't see the vote, but maybe I'm not looking carefully enough)
Glirdan
Eomer
Lhuna
Boromir
Aiwendil
tar-ancalime

There's no point to add another person on the list, I think.

Oh, well,

++Lhunardawen

for the reasons that other people have already stated & also my post #57.

[Garin]

Starts to type + + G-I......
Then B-O-R-

Taps fingers. L-H....

++Boromir.

I guess I'm going with my first instinct.

[Boromir88]

It's funny how a man who has a life and job outside Werewolf and can't always be fulltime committment to check up every hour is the one that's get's everyone's accusations. Sorry if I'm not vocal enough, but that's due to time constraints as I do have other work that must get done. But now I am back and I fully plan to go through everything and give my input if it serves anyone well.

I thought the concensus was it's not how many posts but what's in the posts? From what I've read it seems like the main gripe on me is that I haven't posted a lot, but you all think what I've said is sensible...funny than how I am guilty. Oh well, prepare to hear a bunch more from me now.

[Anguirel]

From what I've read it seems like the main gripe on me is that I haven't posted a lot, but you all think what I've said is sensible...

No, our main gripe is that what you've said looks constructed to appear sensible, but isn't particularly...compared to your usual form anyway.

[littlemanpoet]

And Boromir88, above all. For all Aiwendil's assertion that he looks like one of the helpful ones, he hasn't really said all that much, except the infamous "Seems to be business as usual" post. .... Yes, I think Boromir88 is my likely target, unless the need of the moment changes.

Up to post # 63 so far....

I'm glad to see this growing suspicion. Boromir's attempt to instill fear in the same quoted post got my notice, as it did SPM's (I believe).

That's all for now.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, here's a reconstruction of the voting so far, hope it's soon enough:

1. Glirdan -> Gil-Galad (1)
2. Nilp -> Farael (1)
3. Lhuna -> Glirdan (1)
4. Gil-Galad -> Glirdan (1)
5. Tar Ancalime -> Eomer (1)
6. SPM -> Lhuna (1)
7. Anguirel -> Boromir (1) (glad to see it by the way)
8. Farael -> Aiwendil (1)
9. Formendacil -> Boromir (2) (right on!)
10. Mormegil -> Gil-Galad (2)
11. Eomer -> Lhuna (2)
12. Aiwendil -> Tar (1)
13. Kath -> Gil-Galad (3) (grrrr!)
14. Holbytlass -> Tar (2)
15. Celuien -> Gil-Galad (4) (double grr!)
16. Spawn -> Lhuna (3)
17. Garin -> Boromir (3) (good!)

and now for my addition:

++ Boromir88

Simply most suspicious.

[Boromir88]

To clear up my "usual...too usual" post, I was remarking that everything has gone
(at that point) as I expected it to go. I expected Sauce to be one of the more vocal ones and he is. I expected Mormegil to post random accusasion and he did. Glirdan usually is one of the first ones to vote and he was...etc. It's like that "quiet...too quiet" everything's going as I expected, but kind of unnerving that everything well...is usual.

So, as far as thoughts on people. I doubt Anguirel is a wolf, he first brought up suspicion on me, and he's stuck too it. A wolf I doubt would be so daring on day 1, to bring up suspicion. No wolves are usually the bandwagoners, they tag along to other people's suspicions. Because it's hard to distinguish a bandwagoning wolf from a lost/following innocent. So, Anguirel is simply a misguided innocent right now (at least in my thinking).

I'm mostly worried about Garin who has jumped around. He tags along to Anguirel and suspects me. I first said Lhuna WASN'T acting usual, she seemed more chirpy, SPM (and I believe Eomer) went further to explain and voted for her. Garin remarked that he was now leaning more towards Lhuna then myself, then he suddenly switches back to me. It just seems like Garin is playing a handy job of either being a bandwagoning wolf or a lost innocent.

Aiwendil also puzzles me as he first defends me and includes me with Sauce and lmp then he jumps onto Anguirel and says Anguirel is right.

Formendacil pops in and gives no explanation for his vote for me. But, I don't know his post seems to be that he's more lost right now.

So from what I've looked at Aiwendil or Garin seem to be my likely votees for today. Unless something changes here.

[Boromir88]

Now lmp immediately falls under my suspicion as he for some reason votes for me. If I am lynched today I would seriously look at lmp and find out which of the other people with 3 votes he has tried to save.

Now my vote changed I don't want to vote for Gil-galad but I must save my own life. I never wanted to vote for Gil, but my innocence is insured in myself and Gil I can't be sure. I seriously doubt Gil is a wolf but I'm forced to make that decision because I think we have a wolf in a pack that has voted for me.

++Gil-galad

[Aiwendil]

Boromir88 wrote:
Aiwendil also puzzles me as he first defends me and includes me with Sauce and lmp then he jumps onto Anguirel and says Anguirel is right.

To clarify: I had said that you and SPM seemed to me to be helpful. Then Anguirel's post got me thinking, I looked back, and found that you were perhaps not quite as helpful as I'd remembered. So I nudged you, shall we say, from my "helpful; maybe innocent" category to my "simply don't know" category. I find the number of votes against you strange, as there are certainly some more suspicious characters around (like Tar). I think we may want to think carefully tomorrow about those who have voted for Boromir.

[littlemanpoet]

Now lmp immediately falls under my suspicion as he for some reason votes for me. If I am lynched today I would seriously look at lmp and find out which of the other people with 3 votes he has tried to save.I don't blame you .... if you're innocent ... which if you are, I hope you survive in spite of my vote, since I enjoy discussions with you involved (aka werewolf gaming). And I'm well aware of the dire circumstances my vote puts me in, so late and so seemingly deciding. Conclude what you will - that's your job.

[Boromir88]

And I'm well aware of the dire circumstances my vote puts me in, so late and so seemingly deciding. Conclude what you will - that's your job.
But your vote isn't as risky as it seems Mr. silversmith.

You only tied voting between myself and Gil-galad. But you knew one thing, you knew I was now around to cast my vote. With only you and myself left to vote you tie things up forcing me to vote for someone I didn't want to to save my own skin and now put me in a bad spot because I did so. So honestly mr. lmp don't build yourself up to sticking your neck out and making a "risky" vote. Because the way I see it, it aint that risky, you have actually now put me in a bad spot because I had to vote for Gil-galad to save myself. Which I'm sure (unless by some miracle Gil is a wolf) I will be in the same water tomorrow, even worse.

[Shelob]

Glirdan: Gil-Galad’s a wolf, “enthusiast” clearly means we need to lynch him.
Gil-Galad: Really?
Mormegil: Can we think otherwise?
Saucepan Man: Maybe he’s just being Gil?
Kath: Why should that be an excuse?
Tar-Ancalime: And what about this False Seer?
Boromir88: That’s a non sequitur if I ever heard one, enough questions. Gil got the majority of the vote so we have to lynch him.
Gil: You had it in for me didn’t you? Right from the beginning.

(The villagers have now all gathered around Gil-Galad, they begin to shuffle him towards the edge of the square where they’ve erected a makeshift gallows.)

Gil: Who am I that so much should converge on my little death?
Celuien: You’re a wolf that’s who…probably…maybe…we think…ribbit…

(They’ve now got Gil on the gallows with the noose around his neck. The crowd is gathered around so close that it’s hard for anyone not right up front to see exactly what’s going on)

Gil: There must have been a moment, at the beginning, where you could have…
Littlemanpoet: But we missed it. (holding one of his silver daggers ready, just in case) So if you don’t mind…

(The lever is pulled, Gil drops and is killed rather quickly when his neck breaks. He dies cleanly without any signs of Lycanthropy, no sudden growth of hair or fangs.)

Lhunardawen: Well.
Anguirel: We’ll know better next time.

(Sorrowed, the villagers drift away towards their houses. The square begins to grow dark with shadow, Glirdan’s lamenting song can be heard softly for awhile, before that too fades away.)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Nilpaurion Felagund
Lhunardawen
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Littlemanpoet
Kath
Garin
Holbytlass
Anguirel
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

Dead:
Shelob--killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie--killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad--Lynched at the close of DAY 1

DAY 1 has ended, NIGHT 2 has begun. Please refrain from posting. Usual Night PMs requested and expected. Thank you.

[Shelob]

(Early morning, shortly after the sun has risen. The moon has not yet set and can been seen just above the ridge of the Western mountains. The village square is as empty as it was left the evening before.)

Voice from the well: Sooth…sooth… (fading) sooth…

(Enter SPM, FARAEL, MORM, AIWENDIL, GLIRDAN, FORM, DANCING SPAWN, NILP, LHUNA, EOMER, LMP, KATH, GARIN, ANGUIREL, CELUIEN, TAR-ANCALIME, BOROMIR88, from various points within the town.)

Formedacil: Look at the moon, how strange the moon seems. She is like a little princess who wears a yellow veil, and has little white doves for feet.
Lhunardawen: Why thank you, though I wouldn’t say the moon is quite as pretty as I am.
Form: Huh? What was that?
Mormegil: (exasperated) Knights.
Voice from the well: (very faint) Sooth…
Farael: Does anyone else hear that?
Celuien: Ribbit.
Kath: That?
Farael: No, not Celuien.
Anguirel: You mean the person saying “sooth”?
Dancing Spawn: Now that you mention it I think I did hear someone saying “sooth”. It sounded rather like it was coming from the well.

(The villagers proceed to go crowd around and look down the well)

Tar-Ancalime: Can anyone see anything?
Eomer of the Rohirrim: I can see the back of your head. Maybe if we stopped crowding and got some light we could see what was down there.

(They do so.)

Glirdan: It’s Holbytlass!
Boromir88: Holby! Holby! Are you alright? Quick somebody get rope and see if we can get her out of there.

(NILP runs to get from rope from where he fixes fishing nets. The Villagers manage to pull up the now fully dead HOLBYTLASS)

Nilp: We’re too late, she’s dead.
Aiwendil: But she was just alive, we heard her saying “sooth”.
Saucepan Man: I wonder why she was saying sooth anyway, you’d think you’d be calling out for help if you were trapped in a well.
Glirdan: Her eyes! Look at them!

(The villagers take a moment to look closer, Holby’s eyes have been pulled from their sockets. The eyes themselves are probably still down in the well, but the wolves had kindly left two notes stuffed in the sockets to make up for the absence of the eyes.)

Littleman Poet: (taking the note from Holby’s left socket and reading it) “Lest she see more, prevent it”
Garin: (taking the other note and reading it) “Out, Vile Jelly!”
Lhuna: She was our seer wasn’t she, the werewolves killed our Seer…

(Some villagers nod in agreement, all are stunned by this turn of events. The moon dips behind the mountains as the villagers begin their DAY)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Nilpaurion Felagund
Lhunardawen
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Littlemanpoet
Kath
Garin
Anguirel
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)—Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2

DAY 2 has now begun, you people know what to do.

[Anguirel]

Well...on the credit side the False Seer is the least of our worries now...

On the debit side our only reliable source of information has been silenced when she scarcely had time to begin her research.

Holbytlass suspected Lhuna and tar-ancalime, but said she was "confident" in neither. I doubt she dreamt of a wolf.

Could she have implied during her hypothetical rambling that mormegil was innocent? Possibly, and he's a typical first dream, but the evidence seems frightfully thin.

I fear the wolves picked up on this aside about Seers-subtle enough to escape my notice, but the wolves obviously do not have eyes and ears dulled by dealing in accounts...

If it's likely a seer is going to be lynched try to come and post a clear list of whom you've dreamt of.

Finally-it seems to me that the False Seer is now no use and, mercifully, knows it. Perhaps he or she would help the village most by admitting his identity and giving us a "proven innocent", or the closest we're going to get to one, to work with?

Day 1 left us a wealth of clues and information. We must exploit it fully today, and avenge our Seer's loss.

[Celuien]

Ouch. Holby the Seer? This is a blow. :( I certainly never suspected she was gifted after yesterday.

I'm inclined to think this was an unlucky stroke of luck working against us, but I'll go back over yesterDAY's posts to see if she did drop any hints that might have been picked up by the evil forces lurking among us.

[mormegil]

I tend to agree with Anguirel on this. I don't believe Holby dreamt of Tar-A but I still find her suspicious. However I've been thinking things over and I really suspect LMP currently. I prepared a long post regarding him which I will post shortly after some formatting and additional explination.

[mormegil]

Post 2

His comment here could be construed as an attempt to have the hunter show him/herself prematurely.

Now: I've made knives of it, a pretty little collection. Each of ye should purchase a nice silvery knife from me so as to make sure that who ever is our hunter winds up with a silvery knife. And if every last one of us has one, maybe one as is a werewolf will have bad luck and sit no its own silver knife and thereby do itself in.


It’s not like usual when somebody sells a weapon, they do it without naming roles. However, this seems much more like an attempt to get the Hunter to step forward and say “I’ll buy a weapon”. For the wolves it’s to their advantage to kill the Hunter as quickly as they can. That way he/she is less a liability to them than at a latter stage of the game.

Also this is the post that he started his infamous ‘seer talk’

Post 16 and 17

Quick post with no real content


Post 18

He quickly identifies himself with Aiwendil and seemingly agrees with him. To me it seems as though he’s pushing too hard for us to find him innocent which always sets off alarms in my mind.

Post 19

Agrees with SpM


Post 24

It seems to me we've got to play as though we'd already lost the Seer (blind, if you catch me). We can dispense with the usual Seer-related flotsam of the first few days: people looking for hints that aren't there, declaring that they know who the Seer is, silly warnings to keep hidden, and the rest of that nonsense. We've just got to do the best we can and wait for later in the game, when we'll (if we're lucky) get a great gift from the true Seer.
I agree. I was more or less trying to say this. Thanks for saying it better.

I'd like to propose a moratorium on Seer talk--we can't know who is true until one of them dies, and the longer we wait the more information we'll get. So let's play as though neither of them is here.
The only problem with this is that seer talk is one more piece of the village talk by which we may be able to snare a werewolf by means of his/her words. So although I sympathize with your desire for clarity, too much of that kind of clarity at this early stage might help the werewolves (to hide out in the open) more than the innocents.


It seems that he twist Tar-ancalime’s words here doesn’t it? Basically I understood Tar to be saying that the seer should really be quiet and not leave any major clues. Then LMP comes in nobly and brave to say that she is requesting too much clarity from the seers and that this type can only serve the wolves. I find this entire post to be a bit odd.


Post 53

Is a response to a rebuttal of a retort of Anguirel. LMP comes across as being too keen to answer everything here and cover any and all tracks.


Post 54

Posts that he and SpM never seem to agree and states that he is somewhat suspicious of him but doesn’t know why. “Things sound and look the same on the surface, but there's an undercurrent that I can't quite put my finger on, and it makes me wonder if he's furry” To me it comes across as him opening the back door for an attack on SpM.


Post 98

Out of nowhere he comes up with his suspicion of Boromir making it seem like he had this all along and yet never mentioned him previously and yet was around enough to post a rather large amount.


Post 99

Does a list of votes and gets mad at Kath and Celuien for voting for Gil 3rd and 4th. Obvioulsy he wasn’t trying to save a fellow wolf but perhaps appear as though he thought Gil to be innocent and wanted to save him. Yet he knew that Boromir would have to save himself by killing Gil.

Speaking of the Boromir bandwagon I don’t see why it took off so quickly. I didn’t find that comment really suspicious at all, probably because that is how I felt too. Day 1 is never much fun and everything seemed to be normal. I hope to be able to look a little bit closer at Boromir today but as it stands I think that LMP is much more guilty than he is.

My conclusion is that LMP is definately suspcious and most likely a wolf. If he is a wolf it's not likely that Tar-A is because of their talk earlier. Unless there is some major change I think I will be voting for LMP. He has posted often, many with little or no content. He seems nervous, obviously he's not the seer and I don't believe that he's another gifted. I really think his behavior is indicative of a wolf.

[Glirdan]

Oh my!! The True Seer is gone already. :( Well, on the plus side, the False Seer has just been shut down because now he/she knows it. This is not good.

I wish I could do more to help the village, but sadly, I have been called away from town once again (see original thread for reasons [I'll have a more in depth thing about that up soon]) and may not be able to participate as much as I would like.

As for Gil's death, my part in it was complete randomness. I hope that you do not hold that against me.

[Aiwendil]

Gramercy! We've lost the Seer already!?

Well, we're dealing either with a pack of brilliantly perceptive wolves or a pack of bloody lucky ones. I must say I neither expected poor Holbytlass to be lynched nor had any idea she might be the Seer.

This makes much of the Day 1 discussion (centering around the roles of the two Seers) seem completely wasted. And up to a few minutes ago I thought it had been unusually productive.

Well, we must move on. Anguirel is right, meseems, that the False Seer is now completely useless and should probably come forward.

The Day 1 voting record needs to be looked at carefully. There are some things about it that bother me. First of all, there's the fact that Gil-Galad was lynched. I can, to an extent, understand why somebody might vote for him; but I think there were others who looked far more suspicious.

Of more concern to me, though, are the votes against Boromir. I'm afraid I don't understand the basis for the suspicion of him at all. I agree with what Anguirel said yesterday about his posts seeming more helpful than they actually were. But to me, that seems to be a far cry from substantial evidence. I don't consider Ang's vote particularly suspicious, since (it being Day 1) there was little to go on, and we were endeavouring the spread the votes around. But I'm worried by the way Formendacil, Garin, and LMP seem to have latched on to that and made a nearly succesful effort to get Boromir lynched. In the event, they failed - but they did force Boromir to vote for Gil, thereby ensuring Gil's death.

I said yesterday that LMP struck me as the most genuinely helpful villager. When I look back at his posts, they still look that way to me. But I have a hard time reconciling that with his vote for Boromir, and his apparent sudden, fervent conviction that Boromir should be lynched. Still, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, on the basis of his general helpfulness yesterDAY.

That leaves me with Formendacil and Garin; both look fairly suspicious to me right now. Perhaps they'd care to explain their votes?

The other person I'll be watching carefully today is Tar-Ancalime. YesterDAY, she was my top suspect. While I admit that the DAY 1 evidence was slim, I still can't help but feel that she has been "testing" various approaches (moratorium on Seer talk, suspicion of Spawn) and then very quickly backing off when they come under fire. Her vote for Eomer looks like a typical, random DAY 1 vote - but it also looks like a fairly safe vote for a Wolf.

YesterDAY, I also suspected Glirdan, largely because he looked like a Wolf playing a fairly safe game. While I have no reason to change that opinion, and therefore I still consider him a possible suspect, the other people I have mentioned now look more Wolvish to me, overall.

So the people I intend to look at especially closely toDAY are Form, Garin, and Tar.

Edit: Crossed with Mormegil and Glirdan.

[Boromir88]

Holbytlass suspected Lhuna and tar-ancalime, but said she was "confident" in neither. I doubt she dreamt of a wolf.~Anguirel
I doubt she did too. It may be a set up by the wolves. Tar-Ancalime and Lhuna were both some of the main suspects yesterday, perhaps the wolves are trying to set those to up?

I will tell you all one of the important things to get out of Day 1 (directing this towards Formendacil!) is we get to see how people will act. Wolves have to constantly avoid suspicion, they have to keep our "eyes" off them, and the noose away. In order to do that for a long duration of time wolves have to flip-flop, they have to disguise themselves into what the public is saying/doing. In order to avoid suspicion then they must change and flip-flop. So, the importance of Day 1 is to see how people act at the start and how they act for the rest of the game.

Wolves like to blend in with the crowd because as long as there are several people who vote for the same person, or have the same feelings as the rest they have a better chance of surviving, because there's more people grouped together.

So here's my thoughts on all my fellow villagers...

Saucepan: has been helpful and informative. Sharing his thoughts and information, no reason to suspect him yet. But I usually really don't start thinking Sauce suspicious until Day 3 or 4.

Farael and Aiwendil I'm putting them together for seemingly yesterday they exchanged fisty-cuffs. To me it seems like they are either both innocent (which I think as of right now) or they set up these accusations as a wolvish ploy. So to me they are either both innocent, or both guilty.

mormegil: seems pretty innocent. I'll wait for him to conjure up a rediculous plan before I tell him how wrong it is and start suspecting him for getting us distracted with such ludicrous ideas.

Glirdan: honestly I don't have much to go on with Glirdan right now. Two posts so far. His vote doesn't make him look wolfish, but I want to hear more from Glirdan. It's early but seems to me rather hypocritical...let's lynch the quiet ones...yet Glirdan's been quiet (:which I understand he has a reason for, which is why I will wait: )

Dancing: One of the more helpful one's yesterday. Providing a good summary and including some good opinions. Maybe one of the best posts from yesterday. I always get the thought that one of these "helpful ones" is really a sharp-toothed wolf leading us astray. But so far I will say Spawn is not a wolf.

Nilpaurion: Another one I need more from to make a clear judgement. One soul post, nilp, come on we can't pick up after you.

Lhuna: She's one of my most suspicious looking ones as I remarked yesterday. Perhaps Holby's death was a set up, perhaps not. No matter what the case, she still remains near the top of my list.

Eomer: Seems mostly the same as Sauce, which goes further to back my suspiciouns that one of the helpful ones is really a traitor wolf.

Kath: Another one I want to hear more from. I will remain undecided until I do so.

Garin: Fits perfectly the description of the flip-flopper I remarked about above. But the tough decision about this is...is Garin an innocent that bases his decision off of what we say? Or is he a bandwagoning wolf to get someone innocent lynched?

Anguirel: Based off yesterday in that he started the suspicion on me I doubt he's a wolf...or if he is he's a bold wolf for jumping right into the action and making sure he was heard. One thing I must ask him in that he didn't make sense yesterday. Anguirel, how does something look sensible if it really isn't? It's either sensible or it's not. You either think...this makes sense or it doesn't...how can someone seem to be saying something sensible?

Celuien: He opening post which contains little insight, just the "oh we are in trouble bit" turns my radar on. But not ready to hang our frog yet.

Tar-ancalime: I don't really see the main suspicion on her. The only thing I think that looks somewhat suspicious is her continuous seer talk after she proposed that we stopped talking about the seer. It seems to me that Holby's death the wolves either got lucky or they were trying to attatch more suspicion to tar-ancalime.

of course I save the best for last...lmp, for any insight on how I feel about lmp just go to yesterdays closing discussion... :p

so I think that's everyone which makes my suspicions:

lmp
Lhuna
Garin
Celuien

[Formendacil]

But I'm worried by the way Formendacil, Garin, and LMP seem to have latched on to that and made a nearly succesful effort to get Boromir lynched. In the event, they failed - but they did force Boromir to vote for Gil, thereby ensuring Gil's death.

Latched onto it?

My dear Aiwendil, I do not deny that the fact that Anguirel had just voted for Boromir played a part in my choice to vote for him. As a matter of fact, it played a very major role in things. It was my intention to even the number of candidates up for lynching who were tied. At that point, I believe that Gil and one other villager (not sure who) were at two votes each- but I'm not positive on that count. It was my intention, therefore, to add another candidate to the leading number of ballots, going along with the school of thought that suggests that spreading the votes around makes for better next-day analysis.

And yes, it was a bit of a "safe" vote in that respect- but I remind you that Day 1s are typically devoid of logical reasons for voting, and since no one in the village had made an obvious slip like saying "I am a Werewolf", if I wished to have my vote to serve a purpose it made more sense to level the voting field a little than to try and find someone suspicious.

And, for what it's worth, I did find Boromir to be slightly out of character... but that could be an absence of time as much as anything else.

Now, on the subject of the dead seer, we are really in a fix here, since the Seer would only have had one dream before her death that we can find clues to- if she even left any! From my own stint as Seer, I know it's possible that she didn't even leave any at all.

And, even if we DO find this one innocent/guilty villager, that's not a lot of help...

[Formendacil]

So here's my thoughts on all my fellow villagers...

I guess I'm either honoured to come in for no suspicions or insulted for not being a fellow villager... That's twice I've been left off of major lists in this game so far. Thank you Boromir, thank you Spawn. If I was a wolf trying to hide, you'd undoubtedly be my two accomplices...

Now, by and large I've got no major disputations to make about your list, Boromir, but I'd like to make a comment or two regarding:

Garin: Fits perfectly the description of the flip-flopper I remarked about above. But the tough decision about this is...is Garin an innocent that bases his decision off of what we say? Or is he a bandwagoning wolf to get someone innocent lynched?

If you ask me, Garin leans more towards your first option than your second. As noted elsewhere, I'm a player who tends to judge people by how closely they play to form, and described as such, Garin is playing perfectly to form. He is, from what I've watched, very much a flip-flopper, especially early in the game. He is also, and I crave your indulgence Garin for saying so, rather overly-eager to ingratiate himself with the village.

That said, however, I'm not willing to say that he's not a Werewolf yet, since both of the two games he's played that I was also a part of, he turned out to be a Werewolf in the end...

[Boromir88]

I realize I left out Formendacil...besides me getting a hint Form doesn't enjoy Day 1's I didn't see much else. I guess Form's vote does make sense if from what he read he determined me as the most suspicious (again Day 1's is hard to choose) lmp's vote just strikes me off because he doesn't give anything to suddenly wanting me lynched and simply is pleased to see me suspected. Again, just out of the blue.

This makes much of the Day 1 discussion (centering around the roles of the two Seers) seem completely wasted. And up to a few minutes ago I thought it had been unusually productive.
I'm starting to think the Seer discussion was started and fanned to a wide discussion by the wolves in order to keep us distracted from our task, which was to catch wolves. Then totally make Day 1's discussion unproductive by nabbing the Seer. It may have been an attempt to get clues as to who our Seer was, and get us focused yesterday on what the seer should do instead of looking at who the wolves are.

This would point towards lmp, anguirel, tar-ancalime, and I believe spawn and Celiuen (if I'm wrong with the last two correct me) who all extensively, or continued the discussion of our "seers."

[Garin]

This is a hard pill to swallow. This cannot be a coincidence, we have some cunning wolves in our midst. Either that or they are extremely lucky. Nonetheless, this was their victory and I mourn the dead seer.

Oh, Gil too...

That being said...

I had no intention of joining any bandwagon yesterday. I just couldn't get back into the village until late. We had 3 main contenders in the vote and I chose one. I didn't bury my vote early on or make a safe vote for someone who hadn't a chance of being lynched. I chose, using what meager evidence was presented, the most suspicious candidate. I didn't think Gil was a wolf, but I wanted to kill Gil because he is Gil. Not a good enough reason. The only reason I then wanted to vote for Lhuna was to even up the votes and force those telling "late wolf votes."

Which, brings us to Boromir...

His frantic last minute posts and his vote brings back memories from a past life.
Does no one else find those posts distressing?

I will attempt to address them in detail when I leave the bakery today.

[Boromir88]

my apologies for leaving you out Form, I realized it after the post of course and we now must have just been in a fury of cross-posting.

[Formendacil]

my apologies for leaving you out Form, I realized it after the post of course and we now must have just been in a fury of cross-posting.

No offence taken. It is, more than anything else, rather amusing...

I realize I left out Formendacil...besides me getting a hint Form doesn't enjoy Day 1's I didn't see much else. I guess Form's vote does make sense if from what he read he determined me as the most suspicious (again Day 1's is hard to choose)

No, I really don't care for Day 1s... A necessary evil, of course, but not an enjoyable one. I'm not alone in this opinion either... Just ask Kuruharan how he feels about Day 1s.

[littlemanpoet]

It’s not like usual when somebody sells a weapon, they do it without naming roles. However, this seems much more like an attempt to get the Hunter to step forward and say “I’ll buy a weapon”. For the wolves it’s to their advantage to kill the Hunter as quickly as they can. That way he/she is less a liability to them than at a latter stage of the game.
Now: I've made knives of it, a pretty little collection. Each of ye should purchase a nice silvery knife from me so as to make sure that who ever is our hunter winds up with a silvery knife. And if every last one of us has one, maybe one as is a werewolf will have bad luck and sit no its own silver knife and thereby do itself in.You ninny. Can't you see how I made it crystal clear that EVERYBODY should buy a knife so that the Hunter could NOT be picked out? You're readin way too much into thing here, my man. I'll say it once and never again, because it's pretty useless to even bother: I'm an ordinary innocent. Waste your time suspecting me all you like, fine so be it, but it's wasting your time.

I don't have time to answer any of the rest of your trumped up charges. Back later.

[Celuien]

Hmm. Crawled all over Holby's posts and couldn't find a strong clue of who she dreamt of or anything that pointed her out as gifted. The defense of Morm seems a bit too light to indicate a dream. I guess the wolves were lucky.

Finally-it seems to me that the False Seer is now no use and, mercifully, knows it. Perhaps he or she would help the village most by admitting his identity and giving us a "proven innocent", or the closest we're going to get to one, to work with?

Maybe - but villagers still have a large numeric advantage and knowing the identity of only one known innocent doesn't change the ratio much. Better, perhaps, to stay hidden until knowing a definitive innocent can make a big difference, since known innocents tend to be wolf targets by night?

Sorry for lack of insight at the moment. I only have a few minutes to post just now (sharing a phone line with several other people). Will be back later.

[The Saucepan Man]

Zounds! We have lost our Seer already. And our True Seer at that. To lose one Seer might be regarded as unfortunate, but to lose the True Seer is a bloomin' disaster. :eek:

I cannot recall anything that Holbytlass said that might have suggested that she was the Seer. Then again, I cannot recall much of what she said at all. Either Holby's vote yesterday puts tar-ancalime in a rather bad light or this is a rather clumsy attempt to frame her. My suspicions of tar yesterday notwithstanding, I am inclined to the latter view. It would take a bold Wolf indeed to kill one of the two who voted for her, especially if she did suspect Holby to be the True Seer. Perhaps she is counting on us seeing it as an attempt to frame her, but I frankly view that as unlikely. I will have to go back and look at Holby's contributions from yesterday, but my initial reaction is to agree with those who doubt that she dreamed of a Wolf.

In the meantime, as is customary, here is yesterday's voting record:

1. Glirdan for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-1)
2. Nilpaurion Felagund for Farael (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1)
3. Lhunardawen for Glirdan (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-1)
4. Gil-Galad for Glirdan (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2)
5. Tar-ancalime for Eomer of the Rohirrim (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1)
6. The Saucepan Man for Lhunardawen (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1)
7. Anguirel for Boromir88 (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1, Boromir88-1)
8. Farael for Aiwendil (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1, Boromir88-1, Aiwendil-1)
9. Formendacil for Boromir88 (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1)
10. Mormegil for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-2, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1)
11. Eomer of the Rohirrim for Lhunardawen (Gil-Galad-2, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1)
12. Aiwendil for tar-ancalime (Gil-Galad-2, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-1)
13. Kath for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-3, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-1)
14. Holbytlass for tar-ancalime (Gil-Galad-3, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2)
15. Celuin for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-4, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2)
16. dancing spawn for Lhunardawen (Gil-Galad-4, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-3, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2)
17. Garin for Boromir88 (Gil-Galad-4, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-3, Boromir88-3, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2)
18. littlemanpoet for Boromir88 (Gil-Galad-4, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-3, Boromir88-4, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2)
19. Boromir88 for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-5, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-3, Boromir88-4, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2)

All voted (thankfully).

Some interesting ideas have been put forward today already, which I will need to consider. And I have some ideas of my own to share, based on yesterday's votes, which I will do shortly.

One thing, though. I am not convinced that the False Seer should come forward yet. Yes, it would give us a known innocent, but the False Seer can still dream and we know that their dreams are most likely to be wrong. Might that be of some use? If for example, they dream of someone and see a Wolf, the likelihood is that person is innocent. So it might be worth them staying hidden for a while yet in order to accumulate more information. It is really up to the False Seer, since they would most likely be signing their own death warrant, but we have time before the voting begins in earnest to consider it.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

So, we lost our Seer. Nasty. 'Cod rest her sole.'

Now, yesterDAY's voting was quite interesting, as I had hoped. What did I see?

1. The Boromir88 bandwaggon was constructed so hurriedly (it started two and three-quarters of an hour before the end of the DAY) and so flimsily (there was no evidence that I could see, really) that any attempts to rush it past a pregnant crab would result in serious physical injuries. Speaking of which, I would like to do some to the builders of this bandwaggon, preferrably one involving a snapped thoracic vertebra. :smokin:

2. The Gil-galad bandwaggon was, well, somewhat predictable. Gil must be paying for surviving seven DAYs in the previous game. But enough of him. Glirdan's vote looks innocuous for now, Boro's vote was, well, excuseable. morm's vote, in combination with his posts, looks understandable as well. Now, what struck me were Kath's and Celu's vote. Aside from Gil being Gil (I sympathise with him, during DAY 1s, at least), there was no proper reason, really. Well, they're marked with question marks on my list, not exclamation marks--ones which marks all of those who built Boro's waggon--, so I just wanted to point it out.

3. The Lhunardawen bandwaggon was a veritable surprise for me. Although the reason looks well enough. I'd like to think (and hope) that all the builders of this bandwaggon are innocent (or this village might suddenly have a cobbler[sic]. ;) )

4. The other votes: You know my (uninspired) reason for voting Farael. tar-ancalime's vote for Eomer also has an exclamation mark on my list. These two could possibly be wolf-on-wolf voting, although I'd say now that I'm not a Werewolf. (Thanks for the vote of confidence, Sauce. :) ) Farael's vote could also be wolf-on-wolf, although I don't think a Werewolf would bother making an elaborate case--and that was DAY 1, after all. Randomness rules. Farael is cleared for now.

I think the Glirdan voters are innocent--well, we now know Gil is innocent, and I would like to hope that my sister is, too. (Perhaps I should watch her while she sleeps, maybe she'll talk in her sleep and give me hints.) The tar-ancalime voters look innocent, too--we know Holby is innocent, and Aiwendil looks pretty normal, for now.

So there. I am looking closely at (in order): Littlepoet Man, Anguirel, tar-ancalime, Formendacil, and Garin.

[tar-ancalime]

Good heavens! This is a pickle.

Ordinarily I'd be closely examining the posts of those who voted for Gil-Galad, but frankly I don't see the efficacy of that approach in this case. His obvious mistake about the Cobbler made him an easy target for people who didn't know where their votes should go; Boromir clearly voted to save himself.

Which brings me to yesterday's Boromir campaign:

I don't understand this at all. One vote, two votes at random, I can understand: it was the first Day, after all, and you've got to vote for someone, and we can't all vote for Gil-Galad. But four votes for Boromir, forcing him to vote to save himself at the dire last minute? I just don't see the basis for the suspicion.

Formendacil has already explained his vote; Anguirel's I'm ready to assume was largely random and for the sake of "spread;" but I'd like to hear more from lmp and Garin about their votes. Especially Garin, in light of this:

Which, brings us to Boromir...

His frantic last minute posts and his vote brings back memories from a past life.
Does no one else find those posts distressing?

No, I don't find them distressing at all--what else could he have done in that situation?

Now, Boromir, I'm well aware that I'm coming under some scrutiny myself today, so I do apologize if anyone postulates an evil alliance between the two of us because of this post.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, my thoughts on the voting.

First off, I too found it strange that Boromir88 accumulated so many votes. I saw nothing in him yesterday to attract particular suspicion. Elempi seemed particularly aggressive in his desire to see Boro lynched. More reason still to keep an eye on him.

But my main suspicions arise from the votes cast yesterday for Gil-Galad. I am not sure how he became such a prime suspect. His reaction vote for Glirdan worried me at first, but when I considered it further it seemed to me to be a most un-Wolfish thing to do. It was bound to draw attention, so why would a Wolf do it? And there was nothing else to go on, other than the fact that he was quiet. But that is standard behaviour for Gil.

The following voted for him (in order): Glirdan, mormegil, Kath, Celuin and Boromir88.

I am still inclined to view Glirdan's early vote for Gil as being too risky for a Wolf, given that Gil was quite likely to be in the running to be lynched (as indeed he was).

Boro's vote could go either way. I should perhaps correct a seemingly general misapprehension. Boro did not have to vote for Gil to save himself. He voted last, at a time when he and Gil were tied on four votes each. Had he voted differently, Gil would still have been lynched because there are no double lynchings and Gil received the first vote. But in those circumstances, wouldn't a Wolfish Boro simply have "throw away" his vote, especially when he claimed to have other suspects, rather than voting for Gil? On the other hand, perhaps he felt that a vote for Gil would look more innocent as he could claim that he had no choice (which is precisely what he did). So Boro's vote for Gil could go either way for me.

To my mind, the most suspicious votes for Gil are those in between. Gil was an easy target, especially as he already had one vote. Perhaps the Wolves thought they could avoid the noose if they promoted him as a candidate. Or perhaps one of them had attracted some votes and was at risk of being lynched.

Mormegil's vote put Gil equal with Glirdan and Boro on two votes each.
Kath's vote put him one ahead of Glirdan, Boro and Lhuna, on three votes.
Celuin put him two ahead of Glirdan, Boro, Lhuna and tar-ancalime, making him the clear favourite for the noose.

I suspect that there is one Wolf (although probably no more) among those three Gil voters. And there could well also be a Wolf among those who were potentially saved by those votes. I am inclined, for now, to think Glirdan and tar innocent and I am unsure about Boro. Which leaves Lhuna, my prime suspect from yesterday. But would a Wolfish Lhuna kill Holby, who cast suspicion on her yesterday? Possibly. If she is a Wolf, she was a bold one yesterday.

So, my current suspects (and in no particular order as matters stand): mormegil, Kath, Celuin, elempi and Lhuna.

I will review Holby's posts from yesterday and the contributions made already today. But it is getting late in my part of the village ( ;) ), so I may not be back until later today (RL: tomorrow).

[The Saucepan Man]

His obvious mistake about the Cobbler made him an easy target for people who didn't know where their votes should go ...Ah yes. I had forgotten that. But that is pretty standard Gil-Galadian behaviour too. :rolleyes:

[tar-ancalime]

from The Saucepan Man:

Boro did not have to vote for Gil to save himself. He voted last, at a time when he and Gil were tied on four votes each. Had he voted differently, Gil would still have been lynched because there are no double lynchings and Gil received the first vote.

Really? I thought if there was a tie it was the moderator's pleasure to decide which one got the noose.

[The Saucepan Man]

Really? I thought if there was a tie it was the moderator's pleasure to decide which one got the noose.Looky here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=447145&postcount=2266)

Actually, I see that I had it slightly wrong. In the event of a tie, it is the first person to reach the number of votes they are tied on. But Gil reached 4 votes before Boro did, so Gil's fate was sealed by the time that Boro voted.

[tar-ancalime]

Thanks for checking on that, Saucepan Man. That's what I get for not doing my homework. :rolleyes:

So where does that leave us? I'm still confused about the Boromir bandwagon (sounds like the tour bus for a rock band, don't you think?).

[Glirdan]

I must say that going over a few posts (quickly), a few people seemed to jump right on the "let's get rid of the quiet ones" suggestion that I came up with. I say that we look closely at them *coughLhunacough*. Me saying that was a complete ploy to bring out discussion. Not exactly what happened, but close enough.

Firstly, I must say that I'm glad to see that some people saw my vote for what it truly was: randomness. Those people know who they are.

Now, when I say Lhuna, I mean it. She really jumped at me when I suggested it. Then she goes and votes for me for coming up with that idea and my random (which I said in my vote post) vote for Gil. Talk about a quick reaction to it. Definetly at the top of my list.

Now to adress a few things:

Too arbitrary. Let's see what people say (or not). If someone acts suspicious, lynch that one instead of an arbitrarily picked quiet one. There's not guarantee that the three werewolves will follow the ol' quiet/middling/loud format anyway(Lmp)

This is completely true and with in this group of villagers, I must say that we are all too smart enough to do this, especially seeing as this is what happens in other villages. I think if the Wolves were truly smart, we wouldn't have that combination. We'd probably have all three equally loud and talkative. Which really doesn't help us to go through their posting patterns.

Awsome questions you came up with Aiwendil and I will adress them right now:

1. What is the most reliable way of spotting a wolf? Should we focus on the accusations people make, on the general tone of their posts, or on their voting records?

Voting records don't always help, but they are a very good way to go by. The accusations people make is definetly good to look at the Day after that person has been killed or lynched and proven innocent. As for the tone of the post, well, it all depends on how you yourself take the posts. Because one person could take something that was supposed to be humourous and turn into an accusation which could lead to trouble for both people.

2. What should the Gifteds' strategy be? My own feeling is that the Gifteds, and our Seers in particular, should emphatically not risk revealing themselves unless necessary. Especially at the outset, the prime goal of the Gifteds should be to survive.

I find that this question isn't as bright as the previous one simply because that's the intention of not only the Gifteds, but the Wolves as well. As for revealing themselves, I think only if the need is desperate they should reveal themselves.

The third one doesn't really apply toDay. However, I still believe that we should probably spread the votes, slightly. Keep it concentrated on those who voted for the known innocents.

While I have some sympathy for this view and will not look kindly upon those who hold back and do not contribute to our discussions, I believe that some restraint is in order here. Quietness alone doth not a Wolf make. We must look for other evidence in that which is said and, more importantly, in the way that the votes are cast.(Spm)

I do quite agree. As I said earlier, that suggestion was merely a way to start discussion and as you see, it didn't quite work out how I planned it.

I'll have more up in a bit.

[The Saucepan Man]

Some further brief thoughts before I retire.

I can see nothing in Holby's contributions to indicate that she was the Seer. So it seems most likely to me that the Wolves just got lucky, and it also seems that we are unhappily left without any clues as to the one dream that she did have.

I fear the wolves picked up on this aside about Seers-subtle enough to escape my notice, but the wolves obviously do not have eyes and ears dulled by dealing in accounts...

If it's likely a seer is going to be lynched try to come and post a clear list of whom you've dreamt of.With all that confounded Seer talk going on yesterday, I hardly think it likely that the Wolves would have picked up on this one comment, even if Holby did mean it as a subtle Seer hint. Which I doubt, as it just comes across to me as sensible advice.

It’s not like usual when somebody sells a weapon, they do it without naming roles. However, this seems much more like an attempt to get the Hunter to step forward and say “I’ll buy a weapon”. While I can see merit in some of the points that you make concerning lmp, morm, I am not sure that this tells us much. It looks to me just like the sort of comment that I would expect from a silversmith, ie role play. Moreover, it would be a foolish Hunter to step up and say: "Yes, I am the Hunter. I'll have one please." And an even more foolish littlemanwolf to expect the Hunter to do so in response to his invitation. :D

I'm starting to think the Seer discussion was started and fanned to a wide discussion by the wolves in order to keep us distracted from our task, which was to catch wolves. Then totally make Day 1's discussion unproductive by nabbing the Seer. It may have been an attempt to get clues as to who our Seer was, and get us focused yesterday on what the seer should do instead of looking at who the wolves are.I am inclined to agree with you there, Boro. But it seems to me that the main culprits in that regard were Aiwendil and littlemanpoet. And perhaps Celuin too, who pointedly said that she did not want to talk about the Seer, and then went on to do so at length ... :rolleyes:

[Glirdan]

I say you ought to be lynched for that.

Princess though I am, there are certain realities in life over which I have no control, and with regards to this play or whatever we call this thing, I name a bizarre condition called timezones as my greatest bane. I've searched high and low for someone who can cure me, but to no avail. The grave effects of the condition include a disturbing degree of quietness on my part. And can you blame me, musician?(Lhuny)

Like I said, she jumped at me rather quickly. I have the same timezone illness that you have oh fair one. Now, I know I seem to be attacking you a lot, but I must ask, what made you jump at me so much??

He's most likely innocent, but what can I do? As a respected Dwarf from a village of old, Kuruharan I think his name is, aptly put it, "Day Ones "

I decree that no one suspect me for voting in such a manner, even if Glirdan is later proved to be indeed innocent. (Lhuny)

Now this makes absolutely no sense as has been said on numerous occasions. If you believe that I'm innocent, why go and vote for me and say but what can I do? Well, here's a few suggestions:

~Look carefully through ALL the posts and take what you can from them.
~Don't vote for someone, say they are probably innocent and then say "but what can I do?"

(I am being positively evil!! :p )

On this day when the field is open and the evidence flimsy, why target a musician, whose songs and tunes will help allay the sorrows of these times? If all the world's a stage, Glirdan's art will liven that stage. We would be fools to rid ourselves of him without a solid basis.(Ang)

Well, at least someone else likes my singing. :D

This is the end of my answering to things from yesterDay.

I will move on to toDay in a minute.

[Glirdan]

There's only one thing that I really have to adress toDay and it's Boro's vote. Why on earth would you vote for Gil (if you didn't suspect him [forgive me if you did for I only breifly scanned the posts]), why on Arda did you vote for him? Everyone knows fully well that if it comes down to a tie, the person to reach that number of votes first would be lynched. Your vote sealed Gil's fate. So, that brings me to this: why did you not vote for the person you suspected??

[Celuien]

Since Lhuna, along with elempi, seems to be heading up the suspect list, guess I'll take a look at them.

Lhuna:
Most of the suspicion of the Princess seems related to her attack on Glirdan for the suggestion to lynch quiet villagers. And her...ahem...haughty tone with demands not to be killed. ;) The second part is just being in character, I think. Although, as Boro pointed out, it was strange to be so stongly against Gilrdy's plan when she was at the moment among the most vocal villagers.

Elempi:
I'm also somewhat puzzled by his strong joining in on the Boro bandwagon. Yes, Boro wasn't quite himself yesterday, but that's been changed today, as I thought it would. And as much as I hate to do it, I'm starting to find myself agreeing with SpM's assessment that he might have been trying to flush out the Seer. Although I find myself wondering if wolf-Elempi would be that obvious. I seem to recall reading a history of an extremely subtle namesake of his who did turn out to have lycanthropic tendencies. That one would have been more careful. Still, I'll eagerly await his promised answer.

And finally SpM, since you brought it up, I really didn't want to get drawn back into the Seer argument yesterday. But a question was posed about my post. If I ignored it, that would have looked suspicious, since I'm sure someone would have accused me of trying to cause confusion by leaving an ambiguous statement out for discussion (which had already started before I returned). I figured it was better to answer and clear up any questions I may have caused than to let it sit and possibly generate even more debate. Does that answer your concern about my re-entering the discussion?

[littlemanpoet]

Also this is the post that he started his infamous ‘seer talk’Just who the heck decided that seer talk was infamous, bad or wrong to do? I saw people's points about not talking about the seer too much and said so, then had second thoughts which I voiced in answering tar. Twist?!? Twist?!? What madness is this?

He quickly identifies himself with Aiwendil and seemingly agrees with him. To me it seems as though he’s pushing too hard for us to find him innocent which always sets off alarms in my mind.I agreed with him. Don't you ever agree with anybody around here, Morm? Huh? Huh!!?? If that identifies me with him, fine I'll play your game. I'm betting Aiwendil's innocent. So sure I'll identify with him, for the most obvious reason which I won't rant about. But I'm sure that anything I say in my defense you will only see through the filter of your obviously well matured suspicions.

Is a response to a rebuttal of a retort of Anguirel. LMP comes across as being too keen to answer everything here and cover any and all tracks.You're wasting your time with yet another "seeming"

Posts that he and SpM never seem to agree and states that he is somewhat suspicious of him but doesn’t know why. “Things sound and look the same on the surface, but there's an undercurrent that I can't quite put my finger on, and it makes me wonder if he's furry” To me it comes across as him opening the back door for an attack on SpM.Fair enough. It felt that way to me. I have inside information that he's not guilty and that Boromir is. If you're wondering where that inside information comes from, I'll tell you: my brain .... intuitive style, know what I mean?

Out of nowhere he comes up with his suspicion of Boromir making it seem like he had this all along and yet never mentioned him previously and yet was around enough to post a rather large amount.Maybe it seems as out of nowhere to you, but that's just because you're not sitting in my shoes. I had formulated my suspicion about Boromir before I read Anguirel's post, and was glad to see his agreement with me. Then I had to (you know, some of us do this) work. I can't do my silver smithing and be here discussing things at the same time.

Does a list of votes and gets mad at Kath and Celuien for voting for Gil 3rd and 4th. Obvioulsy he wasn’t trying to save a fellow wolf but perhaps appear as though he thought Gil to be innocent and wanted to save him. Yet he knew that Boromir would have to save himself by killing Gil.I'm not trying to appear anything but what I am: innocent and a little bit obnoxious. Deal with it. I got mad at them because I wanted more votes against Boromir, whom I still suspect.

Note to self: Oh, but that would be too simple and straightforward and obvious, LMP, you can't possibly have meant that; why it would mean you're [heaven & mormegil forbid: innocent :eek:]) Welllll, guessy whattee!

Speaking of the Boromir bandwagon I don’t see why it took off so quickly.Timing, my man, strictly timing. But you won't be believing anything I say anyway, so whatever.

I didn’t find that comment really suspicious at all, probably because that is how I felt too.I guess it takes all kinds. You look at things with your objective scientific approach, I look at things half the time objectively, half the time intuitively. We're not going to come up with the same results. Guaranteed.

Day 1 is never much fun and everything seemed to be normal. I hope to be able to look a little bit closer at Boromir today but as it stands I think that LMP is much more guilty than he is.You crackpot.

My conclusion is that LMP is definately suspcious and most likely a wolf.Sure I'm suspicious. I like being suspicious. As long as I don't get lynched it keeps me in the game longer. So suspect me to your heart's content. But you're wasting time if you lynch me. Trust me. Oh, yeah, that's right. You've chosen not to. Fine. Waste your vote if you like.

If he is a wolf it's not likely that Tar-A is because of their talk earlier. Which means that she could be in my book.... obviously.

Unless there is some major change I think I will be voting for LMP. He has posted often, many with little or no content. He seems nervous,Nervous! You bliddy idjit! I'm excited to be playing again. I like doing this. "Seems" again. Mormo, go find another pet theory, and I hope youre next one's better.

obviously he's not the seer and I don't believe that he's another gifted. I really think his behavior is indicative of a wolf.Hah! haha! You make me laugh. Blind fool. ;)

[Boromir88]

Now, Boromir, I'm well aware that I'm coming under some scrutiny myself today, so I do apologize if anyone postulates an evil alliance between the two of us because of this post.~tar-ancalime
Is there something you want to tell us? I mean are you trying to tell us there would be a reason why people would think I'm evil by this post of yours? Is there some dark secret you're hiding? :eek:

There's only one thing that I really have to adress toDay and it's Boro's vote. Why on earth would you vote for Gil (if you didn't suspect him [forgive me if you did for I only breifly scanned the posts]), why on Arda did you vote for him? Everyone knows fully well that if it comes down to a tie, the person to reach that number of votes first would be lynched. Your vote sealed Gil's fate. So, that brings me to this: why did you not vote for the person you suspected??~Glirdan
Honestly, and this is neglect on my part, I apparently didn't read through that post carefully (don't even have a recollection of that post until Sauce provided the link) and was unaware of the no double lynchings.

You are right though in that I didn't suspect Gil as a wolf. I had no reason to think he was a wolf, but why I voted for him was of course me thinking I was saving my life...when in actuality Gil's fate was already sealed. But the fact remained I know I'm innocent, though I didn't believe Gil-galad was a wolf, I couldn't be positive of his innocence. I felt like I was forced to vote for Gil-galad so I wouldn't be lynched a long with him, but now I know in actuality I didn't save my life.

So I withdraw these comments I make in post 104 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=447998&postcount=104) about lmp...but I insert these new ones. Assuming lmp was informed on the no double lynchings, by tieing votes between me and Gil-galad he keeps his hands clean from lynching Gil-galad (because only a wolf-now with the absense our seer-knows who is innocent or not). Of course knowing, that Gil-galad would already be hanged, why incriminate himself by voting for him, he would keep his hands clean in the matter.

[Garin]

Tar says: Formendacil has already explained his vote; Anguirel's I'm ready to assume was largely random and for the sake of "spread;" but I'd like to hear more from lmp and Garin about their votes. Especially Garin, in light of this:

I see an alliance of wolves in the mix. Why are you so concerned about my vote for Boromir?

It was the first day, and who says I will vote the same way? Boromir is not a proven innocent... unlike Gil.
My intuition is a wolvish one (see my aforementioned past lives) and I saw plenty of it in Boromir's last minute posts. I understand he was saving his skin, but I remember a couple of times I was in the same furry position. I really felt for the guy.

I explained that I had little time to listen to our fellow villagers and quickly perused their comments. I could just as easily be questioned for getting on a Lhuna bandwagon or killing an innocent Gil. I evened things up, as I said, to examine the last minute votes and posts.

I hope to explain why I found Boro's posts suspicious, but I must go now. I have less time for village than I hoped, kill me if you must.

More later. Let me just say... Only a fool would vote to lynch me.

Let me die at the claws of wolves. I am but a simple baker and want to go out with a little drama. Baking bread all day... my forefathers all died of yeast infections. (It was a horrid demon yeast.)

[Boromir88]

lmp...well how convenient you suspect the very thing Anguirel did, but before Anguirel and now expect us to think that you "had" suspicions on me you just didn't feel like saying them until the very end of the day?

lmp, I almost want to say lynch me so people see behind your twisted words, but no that wouldn't work well. You see I think you are now caught in a trap. Since you are caught you are going to take down everyone you can with you (which apparently would be me)

I'm not trying to appear anything but what I am: innocent and a little bit obnoxious. Deal with it. I got mad at them because I wanted more votes against Boromir, whom I still suspect. e).
And yet you still refuse to give reasons.

[Aiwendil]

It occurs to me that I didn't offer an answer to my own question 1 from yesterDAY. To some degree, my questions were merely intended to spark serious conversation, but I should say a word or two about what I think the best ways to spot a wolf are. It seems to me that voting is the one place where the wolves can't hide. A wolf, it seems to me, will be willing to say anything. But what a wolf fears is the hangman's noose - whether it be 'round his/her own neck or a compatriot's. To put it another way: wolves and villagers will probably sound more or less alike, but they won't vote alike. That's why the anti-Boromir campaign looks so suspicious to me.

Having said that, it would be foolish to look at the votes and ignore the discussion. No doubt there are signs of wolvishness to be found in the discussion. But it seems to me that those signs will be harder to read there than in the voting record.

On to other things. Formendacil gives a decent account of his vote for Boromir:
My dear Aiwendil, I do not deny that the fact that Anguirel had just voted for Boromir played a part in my choice to vote for him. As a matter of fact, it played a very major role in things. It was my intention to even the number of candidates up for lynching who were tied. At that point, I believe that Gil and one other villager (not sure who) were at two votes each- but I'm not positive on that count. It was my intention, therefore, to add another candidate to the leading number of ballots, going along with the school of thought that suggests that spreading the votes around makes for better next-day analysis.

Okay, that's a fair explanation. Still, it looks just the way I'd expect a wolf's attempt to push for Boromir's death to look. It comes after suspicion and even a vote have been cast in Boromir's direction, but it doesn't come at the end, where it would perhaps appear too decisive.

So Form is still most definitely still on my suspect list. Garin's vote looks even more wolfish - which, of course, simultaneously makes him seem less and more suspicious. Garin may be a bold wolf trying to save a comrade (assuming one of the other lynch-candidates at that point was a wolf) or simply trying to force Gil's death.

The more I think about LMP, the stranger he seems. If not for his sudden attack on Boromir I would probably deem him "likely innocent". LMP - would you care to explain your strange zeal? Or should we perhaps be calling you littlewolfpoet? The other possibility that occurs to me is that LMP might be the False Seer and that perhaps he dreamed that Boromir was a wolf. Wild speculation on my part for wild behavior on LMP's.

Actually, come to think of it, I wonder whether perhaps Farael's strange attack on me may be explained that way. Farael - perhaps you are the False Seer and dreamt me a wolf? Another shot in the dark, and really not particularly relevant as I don't consider Farael a likely suspect at this point. If he's a wolf, he's quite a bold one.

Thanks to SPM for correcting a misperception that I shared - that Boromir was forced to vote for Gil. Nonetheless, unless Boromir is a wolf playing a very elaborate strategy, it seems to me that he was under the impression, at least as of yesterDAY, that he had to vote for Gil to save himself. Which more or less makes his vote look unsuspicious to me.

Now perhaps I can correct a misperception on SPM's part. He wrote:
One thing, though. I am not convinced that the False Seer should come forward yet. Yes, it would give us a known innocent, but the False Seer can still dream and we know that their dreams are most likely to be wrong. Might that be of some use? If for example, they dream of someone and see a Wolf, the likelihood is that person is innocent.

Unless I misunderstand the rules for the False Seer, this is not accurate. The False Seer's dreams are random, which means they give literally no information either way. In fact, anybody can very easily be a perfectly good False Seer on his/her own. Simply make a list of the possible roles (3 wolves, 1 ranger, 1 hunter, 1 false seer, 11 ordinary villagers), choose the target of your dream, and select one of the roles randomly. Congratulations! You've dreamt that is a [insert role you randomly picked]. So now we know that said person is probably [i]not said role, right? Wrong. We've no more information than we started with. Namely, that information is the total number of villagers and the number in each role.

Sorry if I seem to be ranting at this point. I understand that there are all kinds of fallacies one can fall into in dealing with statistics. But the False Seer's sole usefulness at this point is that of a known innocent (and that's still assuming that the wolves are not so bold as to attempt an impersonation).

Another small bone to pick with SPM. He wrote:
I am inclined to agree with you there, Boro. But it seems to me that the main culprits in that regard were Aiwendil and littlemanpoet.

This was in regard to the DAY 1 Seer talk. I make no apologies for the role I played in it. It still seems to me that the earlier we cut out the typical froth and nonsense ("Alas that our moderator is dead! I randomly accuse X, Y, and Z") and the sooner we get to a serious discussion, the better for the village. I can't see that the Seer talk did any harm. In the event, it turned out to be wasted, but only because we were so unlucky as to have our True Seer die on the first NIGHT. If somehow that discussion helped the Wolves pick out Holbytlass as the Seer, then I'm sorry for my part in it. But I honestly don't see how the wolves could have picked her out based on what she said yesterDAY. The more I think about it, the more her death looks like a random stroke of ill fortune.

Edit: Crossed with everything after post 132. I must learn brevity.

[Garin]

Sorry for the double post, but we must also look at those who made safe votes for those not in the race to be lynched.

edit: cross-posted, it wasn't a double post.

[tar-ancalime]

From Boromir88:

Is there something you want to tell us? I mean are you trying to tell us there would be a reason why people would think I'm evil by this post of yours? Is there some dark secret you're hiding?

Nah. Take a look at this:

from Garin:

I see an alliance of wolves in the mix. Why are you so concerned about my vote for Boromir?

See what I mean?

[littlemanpoet]

First off, I too found it strange that Boromir88 accumulated so many votes. I saw nothing in him yesterday to attract particular suspicion. Elempi seemed particularly aggressive in his desire to see Boro lynched. More reason still to keep an eye on him.You're a ninny too. You should know by now that when I make a decision, I'm decisive with it. I get aggressive. See past villages ... in which, by the way, if you care to trace behavior patterns, I was also innocent. Enough about that.

Okay, I've only read as far as the first 2 paragraphs of post # 125 (of course who's going to believe that?), so someone may have already taken care of this next step for me:

Based on yesterday's voting and discussions:

Probably innocent:
SPM
Farael
Aiwendil
Spawn
Anguirel

... these folks were helpful and insightful or, in the case of Farael, too aggressive to be construed to be a werewolf; still, that aggressiveness is a useful thing to hide behind as long as you don't get bitten by it by a Day 1 bandwagon, which she avoided.

maybe innocent:
Glirdan
Nilpy
Lhuna
Eomer
Tar

....I just don't have enough to go on to be sure about these folks. They each were the first to vote for their particular choice, which does not necessarily mean they're not werewolves, but voting for previously offered lynchees is more likely what a werewolf would do.

suspicious:
mormegil - 2nd vote for Gil-galad .... very safe; in addition, his typical pattern for Day One seemed a little more pat than usual, a little less forthright. I thought this (if you dare believe me) before his accusation against me. By the way, that very accusation doesn't necessarily make me wonder, because this is also a typical part of his pattern. However, added to the strangely more mysterious than usual nature of his Day One suspect list and follow-ups, it makes me wonder.

Formendacil - 2nd vote for Boromir .... very safe. - and his posting seemed a little odd too. How so? Well, not as thoroughgoing as I would expect of him.

Kath - 3rd vote for Gil-galad ... a safe place to put one's vote. I find no other oddities surrounding her, so she is not as suspicious to me as the first two above.

Garin - 3rd vote for Boromir ... he's new to me, so I don't really have much of a basis to say anything useful.

Celuien - 4th vote for Gil-galad .... that's it regarding her too. Another safe vote, but not as safe as the 2nd and 3rd votes.

Boromir - 5th vote for Gil-galad .... obviously to save his neck. He's not going to believe me when I say that I actually, believe it or not, didn't make the really obvious connection that he was the only one who had to vote when I tied things up. I got caught in the moment with less than a half hour ago and just plain missed it. My sorry. Quite embarrassing, especially considering that some of you seem to find me so :rolleyes: "persuasive" or a "rival" :rolleyes:

So that's who I'm looking at. My three main suspects are thus: Mormegil, Formendacil, & Boromir. Yikes! :eek: Now there's a strong werewolf team! Heaven (or the Valar, Valinor, and all the rest of ye merry saints and angels, or whatever mythic paraphernalia we adhere to in this village) help us!

[Garin]

Sauce said:
One thing, though. I am not convinced that the False Seer should come forward yet. Yes, it would give us a known innocent, but the False Seer can still dream and we know that their dreams are most likely to be wrong.

The False Seer experiment failed the second our dear True Seer shuffled off this mortal coil.

The False Seer is now but an innocent villager with no reason to PM the Mod Gods unless he or she likes feeling cheated.

Our Falsie should be more inclined to follow his or her intuition and logic rather than these horrid random dreams. Does Falsie want to be perpetually stuck in day ONE?

I think not.

Once a fool realizes he or she was the fool.... walk away. Sorry Mods.

[littlemanpoet]

Assuming lmp was informed on the no double lynchings, by tieing votes between me and Gil-galad he keeps his hands clean from lynching Gil-galad (because only a wolf-now with the absense our seer-knows who is innocent or not). Of course knowing, that Gil-galad would already be hanged, why incriminate himself by voting for him, he would keep his hands clean in the matter.I was so informed. It didn't matter to me because I was voting for the one I thought most suspicious. Plain and simple. If I was a werewolf, I grant that I would have been that careful. Quite incrimination from that point of view. However, I voted for your lynching, Boromir, and rooted for others to do the same, because I had myself quite convinced (and still suspect you) that you are a werewolf. Of course I could be wrong! Who couldn't?

[littlemanpoet]

Post # 137 (http://www.forums.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=448280&postcount=137) seems a little too "both sides against the middle" to me. Reminds me of a certain "Gaur-ancalime" from another village I failed to survive in a past life. Add to that the fact that he was convenient #3 voter for Boromir, and he seems more suspicous to me. Would a werewolf vote for a fellow werewolf? Yes, especially if they waited to be amongst the last to vote so that the voted for werewolf could counter the effects of the fellow werewolf's vote; risky, but not beyond the pale; especially since it tends to separate the two from each other in other villagers' minds. So I'm not done suspecting Boromir, but Garin seems even more suspicious.

[littlemanpoet]

lmp...well how convenient you suspect the very thing Anguirel did, but before Anguirel and now expect us to think that you "had" suspicions on me you just didn't feel like saying them until the very end of the day?No, silly wolf, I didn't have the opportunity to say them any sooner. Check the posting times and you'll see that my posts correspond to (#1) a nice long evening, (#2) my very brief lunch half-hour, and then (#3) late afternoon after getting back from work.

lmp, I almost want to say lynch me so people see behind your twisted words, but no that wouldn't work well. You see I think you are now caught in a trap. Since you are caught you are going to take down everyone you can with you (which apparently would be me) .... Oh how dramatic. :rolleyes:

And yet you still refuse to give reasons. Okay. Here goes. In post
20 (http://www.forums.barrowdowns.com./showpost.php?p=447724&postcount=20), now infamous as your "as usual" post, you built a theme and variations, to a crescendo of "too usual", instilling fear. I picked up on that: "Why is Boromir trying to subtly create an additional level of fear in regard to these other people? What's his game?" And the you added "this false seer scares me" ... there's that fear again. I wondered why. Perhaps Boro is actually a little scared of this situation. But maybe he's setting something up very subtly. Hmmmm! So I concluded that you were at least as suspicious as anybody else on Day 1, and more than most. As I've said before, once I make a decision, I ride it, maybe too hard. There you have it.

[Glirdan]

Well, I must make my vote and it shall be for the one whom I've really suspected the most toDay.

++Lhunardawen

I've said my reasons earlier. Good luck everyone

[mormegil]

Sign: You by evil pinwheel


Wow LMP that was unexpected!

I was called a "crackpot", "bliddy idjit", and a "Blind fool".


Also it was implied that I do not work, however I do and actually that explains some of my different behavior that you noted I demonstrated on Day 1. I have a new job that keeps me busier than my previous one.

But I really don't know what to make of it all. I've seen you get frustrated before and rant thusly. Even though you implied that I am incredibly obtuse, dim witted and that my logic is specious, my suspicions of you are somewhat lessened, even though you find me too thick to change. Notice that I said lessened and not vanished. I still hold Tar-A in fairly high suspicion. The whole Garin chat hasn't done much to convince me of his guilt. There are many others that I would still like to hear from.

As for my vote for Gil, I don't regret it. Gil always is somewhat an unwitting cobbler so to eliminate him early is not as bad as it could be.

Oh and for the record I had forgotten the double lynch rule too. I guess I'm use to double lynching being allowed.

[littlemanpoet]

The False Seer experiment failed the second our dear True Seer shuffled off this mortal coil. ... The False Seer is now but an innocent villager with no reason to PM the Mod Gods unless he or she likes feeling cheated. ... Our Falsie should be more inclined to follow his or her intuition and logic rather than these horrid random dreams. Does Falsie want to be perpetually stuck in day ONE? ...
I think not. ... Once a fool realizes he or she was the fool.... walk away. Sorry Mods.

But the False Seer might get it right once or twice. Granted the rest of us can take the False Seer's info as dicey, but it's still info. So I think that False Seer ought to at least pick a name, even if it has a rather strong chance of being wrong. It might be right, just one of the times. Better than the rest of us, scrambling after votes (a reasonably strong indicator) and people reading too much into others' posts. Anyway...

Hmmmm.....Now, how would Morm and Boro construe what I just wrote as wolfish? What possible use could a dreaming false seer be to the werewolves, keeping quiet? Seems a wash to me, unless the false seer gets lucky....

[mormegil]

My opinion of the false seer is that they are fairly useless now. I don't see how their dreams can be useful. We won't know if they are right or wrong until the person is dead. It might be helpful for him/her to come forward but I think it's up to him/her to do it. Likely they will be killed that night or the next but at least it will avert the killing of our true gifteds.

[Aiwendil]

LMP wrote:
But the False Seer might get it right once or twice. Granted the rest of us can take the False Seer's info as dicey, but it's still info.

Am I inadvertantly speaking some arcane language? It's not info. It's random. Seems to me that to waste any more time discussing the False Seer and his/her "dreams" would only distract us from our more important business.

[littlemanpoet]

My opinion of the false seer is that they are fairly useless now. I don't see how their dreams can be useful. We won't know if they are right or wrong until the person is dead. It might be helpful for him/her to come forward but I think it's up to him/her to do it. Likely they will be killed that night or the next but at least it will avert the killing of our true gifteds.I'm leaning toward your innocence. And I see your point.

Am I inadvertantly speaking some arcane language? It's not info. It's random. Seems to me that to waste any more time discussing the False Seer and his/her "dreams" would only distract us from our more important business.Point made. Fine by me.

[Garin]

As I said earlier, "Falsie" is now an Ordo. They must think this way. Logic will serve him or her better than chasing rainbows. Littlemanpoet seems to have changed his mind on any usefulness the False Seer might serve but the fact that he still seemed open to the option of Falsie coming forth is suspicious. It would do nothing but bringing a powerless innocent forth and making him or her prime wolf bait. Plus, it would be easy for a wolf to claim themselves the False Seer because we would have nothing to prove or disprove his or her innocence or guilt.

Lay low our precious fool.

[Aiwendil]

Sign: Hoi! I wilt my pun

A few more thoughts for now - I'll be gone for a while but back a few hours before the end of the DAY.

So LMP has responded to the accusations coming his way. He sounds genuine to me. But, then, I don't doubt that he'd make a clever wolf, or that he'd be able to modulate the tone of his posts to suit his needs. And I keep coming back to what I mentioned earlier - that the one place where a wolf can't hide is in his vote - though he can, of course, try to explain it away the next DAY.

LMP claims that he suspected Boromir before Ang posted his suspicion; he then expresses exasperation when this claim is doubted. Now, LMP, it seems to me that no one is denying that you could very well have come to suspect Boromir before Ang's post. For my part, your story (i.e. simply not enough time to post earlier) is a perfectly believable one. But that doesn't mean that it's true. The fact remains that we had no evidence that you suspected Boromir until very late in the DAY. Surely you acknowledge that, from out perspective, your claim to have suspected him earlier could be a wolf's frantic attempt at backpedaling and getting out of a tight squeeze.

Having said that, I don't think I'll be voting for LMP today. My reasoning is that, so far, the only real piece of evidence I can find against him is his sudden anti-Boromir stance. Everywhere else, he has (to me at least) appeared to be a genuinely helpful innocent. If he's a wolf, he's doing a remarkable job of playing that role. As of toDAY, I think there are others suspects that it would be better to look at.

I don't quite know what to make of Tar-Ancalime. When I return, I'll probably go over her posts thus far more carefully. There was something in the way she was acting yesterDAY that seemed fairly lupine to me. I suppose it was that she looked like she was consciously maneuvering. That was enough for my vote on DAY 1, but now I feel I must go back over what she's said and see if I can make this feeling more concrete.

Which leaves Form and Garin as my top suspects for the moment, for reasons stated earlier.

[Formendacil]

So Form is still most definitely still on my suspect list. Garin's vote looks even more wolfish - which, of course, simultaneously makes him seem less and more suspicious. Garin may be a bold wolf trying to save a comrade (assuming one of the other lynch-candidates at that point was a wolf) or simply trying to force Gil's death.

Fair enough... I'm not guilty, of course, but I've no problems with being on the suspicion list. As LMP said about himself, being suspicious is usually a good survival tactic, so long as it doesn't go too far. And as Morm noted in another game, I rather like living on the edge in here...

So that's who I'm looking at. My three main suspects are thus: Mormegil, Formendacil, & Boromir. Yikes! Now there's a strong werewolf team! Heaven (or the Valar, Valinor, and all the rest of ye merry saints and angels, or whatever mythic paraphernalia we adhere to in this village) help us!

Egads! What a nightmare! Boromir and Mormegil agree with me often enough outside this game, but with these games I find myself butting heads with them more often than not....

More later. Let me just say... Only a fool would vote to lynch me.

Interesting comment here... a veiled reference to being a Gifted? A simple, Innocent, statement? Or a Werewolf's ploy? Definitely a phrase to remember...

Now, for a few comments regarding the False Seer and his/her dreams...

You do realize, of course, that even if the False Seer reveals themselves, they don't necessarily have to tell us the truth regarding who they dreamed about! If they had strong suspicions regarding who was innocent and who was guilty, all they would have to do is change the names around, and no one would be the wiser. And, if the False Seer was an insightful player, there's no reason why their guesses couldn't be even more accurate than the false answers.

That said, I agree that the only value of the False Seer is a proven innocent. However, I've never seen any indication that proven innocents are useful before Day 4 or 5- when they can become a rallying point for a shrunken village. That said, I would caution the False Seer to wait a couple days before coming forth, but if they choose to do so now, they can at least rest assured that the Ranger can protect them for a night...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

[No anagrams there. Well, maybe there is. ;) ]

Okay, voting time.

Of lmp . . . I remember my (and his) first game, where he was a Werewolf. He wasn't so aggressive then, I think, until the later DAYs. I don't know why I said that, but someone might find this amusing. Or helpful, though I rather doubt it.

He's very defensive, but then again, I think I'm the only one who doesn't go über-defensive when under intense suspicion.

I fear this DAY 1 would turn into a 'Lynch him!'-'No, lynch him!' between lmp and Boro that would cost us two innocents and enough confusion for the Werewolves to hide behind in. How about we back off for a while here?

tar-ancalime's 'random' vote is still troubling, although since it was DAY 1, it could have been pure randomness. She's still very much suspicious, but I will not vote for her toDAY.

Garin is Garin is Garin. Is flip-floppy and somewhat confusing. Is Garin. Again, my eyes are on him, but I will not clamour for his hanging.

Formendacil, based on the only game I've played with him, seems to imitate me ( :p ) on DAY 1s, being somewhat kooky and all. If he has fangs I think someone will see it later. For now, you're safe.

Now, Anguirel. He started the Boromir bandwaggon, with a reason which (to me) seems pulled out of thin air. Or paranoia. Or something. I think he just inflated the shock value of a single post that most of us have ignored. (Maybe it's our fault?) Enedwaith, since he's the one most suspicious to me it seems apt to vote for him.

++Anguirel

[Lhunardawen]

Are you all blind? Or are you simply incapable of utilizing your mental faculties? I said I am a princess. A royal invader girl. Capiche?

But although those who voted for me yesterDay deserve thirty lashes with the whip - if not more -, *sigh* I'm inclined to think they're innocent. Yes, even you, you traitor of a priest-slash-big-brother-slash-promise-breaker. After all, I was, in some way, a bit deserving of votes that Day. And while somehow I'm flattered that you think that a bold princess wolf can pull off what I did then, thanks, but no thanks. I can command a royal anyone to turn me into a wolf if I want to.

One thing I'm just wondering is this: If you thought my vote for Glirdan was a safe vote, don't you think it was an equally safe act to vote for me? A rhetorical question.

I'll be back after reading and pondering on everything that's already been said.

By the way, bravo Wolves. :rolleyes: Luck or skill, may you have less of it from this moment on.

Poor Holbytlass! An honorable burial is due her; I shall have it arranged as soon as possible.

[Lhunardawen]

Oh, and another thing. I was talkative at that time because all you other weird people from weird time zones are silent or sleeping or whatever you were doing. And since you haven't talked much prior to my arrival, naturally I'd have more posts than you all have...until you arrive. But look now, I'm sure I'm way down the list.

Glirdan, I think your vote for me toDay is a bit justified. I think you're innocent. That, or a dumb wolf messing up with the wrong girl.

[Anguirel]

Thanks Nilp . I hope your theory gathers a little support-it will probably increase my life expectancy rather than the reverse...

As for Boromir...too many of you seem to be treating it as though Boromir was lynched and found innocent. This did not occur. He is still as suspicious as ever in my eyes.

I'm sure he'll understand. I just can't afford to ignore the blighter. Once you take your eyes off Boromir's worthy, solid posts, they won't be drawn back again by lustre of shock till it's too late. I observed that even for Day 1-and like Eomer I don't see why Day 1 shouldn't be a day for discussion like any other-his posts were unusually flimsy.

What do I mean by saying they seemed sensible, Boromir? Well, actually I said they were constructed to look sensible. They didn't draw much attention by laying out accusations and theories. They contained a large proportion of role-play, not that I'm against that. They just looked...unnoticeable and slight.

Then I said to myself "Wait, Anguirel old chap! You're just about to ignore one of the most devious players in this village! Now, for the sake of argument...what will happen if you shine a light on these posts and their failings by gunning for their author?" So I did. The unnoticeable nature of the posts had backfired. My suspicions struck a chord with many others.

I believe I saw the signs which often tell a cautious, wise wolf. And I'm not willing to back down yet.

On another note, I agree with Aiwendil that the Seer is now of no use but that he or she can "prove" his or her own innocence. However, I've been convinced that he or she should lie low longer till the village is smaller and his/her revelation can be of more use.

[Lhunardawen]

Some incredibly far-fetched theories from Day 1:

(I will laugh hard at those who take any of these TOO seriously.)

1. Anguirel-Glirdan association of some sort. Remember the former's defense of the latter after my vote for him, in which Anguirel used Glirdan's job as the musician? I don't know.

2. Farael's the Hunter. He mentioned the role as a substituent to one of his organic chemicals, and could have been a not-so-subtle Day 1 hint.

3. Suspicious:
Elempi - Talk about a spirited defense! Could be another one of your ancestors' infamous rants, but Elemdoubleyou can certainly pull of being defensive.
Anguirel - The Boromir vote could have been a result of reading too much into one post. Maybe not. Initiating the bandwagon (as it turned out later) is a bold wolf move, but hey, you can manage it. I guess.
Kath and Celuien - Those votes for Gil were TOO safe.
Garin - History would make this doubtful, but Werewolf roles don't have memories.
tar-ancalime - Flip-flops come to mind.

4. Innocents: SpM, morm, Eomer, Aiwendil, spawn, Boromir88, Glirdan, Farael.

Of course my position entitles me to a change of mind - a privilege which I might use in a little while, when I've recovered from information overload.

Oh., As a lot have said before me, the False Seer is now completely useless as a gifted. I'd advise them to stay hidden for now, though, and just speak up when they're in danger of a lynch.

[tar-ancalime]

tar-ancalime - Flip-flops come to mind.

You know, I don't mind being under a bit of suspicion, but this accusation in particular really rankles. It has been used against me before (in...other villages, also in relation to Day 1 activities).

I think that the people accusing me of...wearing a particular type of sandal...have two things in mind from yesterday:

First, my call for a moratorium on Seer talk. After it was suggested (by Lhuna, I think) that what I really wanted was to suspect anyone who talked about the Seer, I clarified my position: I didn't want to set up a litmus test; I actually don't think talking about the Seer is suspicious; I just think it's counterproductive. That would be the reason for the moratorium: to focus on catching wolves, instead of on other issues. I thought my second post made that clear.

Second, my (admittedly tart) critique of dancing spawn's post. As others have noted, sometimes these "helpful summaries" are nothing but smokescreens for wolves. It's very easy to compile data, write a very long post, and seem to have contributed without actually adding anything new. Having used this tactic myself as a wolf, I was suspicious of dancing spawn's post and I attacked it to see what she would do. Her calm response that she had done it largely to gather her own thoughts (she didn't ignore me, nor did she get defensive), added to the fact that no one else seemed to have a problem with her post, led me to relax my stance. The original post had to be argumentative--how else could I judge the response to it? Leaving out the venom would have guaranteed I'd be ignored.

So please, suspect me all you want--like lmp, I welcome it--but this particular suspicion I don't understand. Especially since in the same post in which she accuses me of flip-flopping, Lhuna writes this:


Of course my position entitles me to a change of mind - a privilege which I might use in a little while, when I've recovered from information overload

Now I know that a princess has certain privileges an ex-leper could never imagine, but I'd like to think I'm just as entitled to change my mind about dancing spawn as she is about anyone else.

[Lhunardawen]

Probably more sensible thoughts...but still not too much so.

1. Anguirel pointed out a possible (uber-subtle) hint that Holby made with regards to her Seership, and admits that it's very easy to pass over it. Could be an attempt to get to our - the innocents' - side, but could also be a bluff. Trying to be helpful while gloating that "Hehe, we found your Seer. Nyahnyahnyah." I'm sure mormegil's familiar with this theory, aren't you, morm? Wasn't at all accurate the first time it was used, but who said it can't be used again?

2. Speaking of morm...(here we go again)...I find his vote for Gil yesterDay a bit unsettling. A safe vote, yes. And we think, "Whoever said an experienced player like morm can't make a safe vote?" Woosh! and away he goes from the suspect list.

3. Oh. I guess I have to answer Glirdan, right? Hey, a princess like me can be forgetful at times. So, looky here, Glirdy!
Like I said, she jumped at me rather quickly. I have the same timezone illness that you have oh fair one. Now, I know I seem to be attacking you a lot, but I must ask, what made you jump at me so much??Hey, I didn't jump. Not with these high heels, I can't jump. I went into a dramatic rant to defend myself. There's a difference, if you'll look closely.

Besides, is your timezones as grave and crippling as mine? Nyahnyah.

Now this makes absolutely no sense as has been said on numerous occasions. If you believe that I'm innocent, why go and vote for me and say but what can I do? Well, here's a few suggestions:

~Look carefully through ALL the posts and take what you can from them.I command you to go back to my posts and count the posts that come before them. I thought that Eomer name sounded suspicious, but I wasn't about to vote for someone I haven't heard from yet. Besides, if you're sure that I'm sure that you're innocent, why do you have to question me for voting for you? Just say you suspect me and be done with it.

~Don't vote for someone, say they are probably innocent and then say "but what can I do?"I'm the princess. You can't tell me to do anything. Got that, musician? :p

Besides, it was more the odds I was referring to regarding your innocence, not your behavior.

(I am being positively evil!! :p )No, you're being positively impertinent, young man. Don't you know to whom you speak?

4. Suspects: Elem/doubleyoupi, Anguirel, Kath, Celuien, tar-ancalime

Sigh. I'm still quite at a loss and it's time for me to go.

I wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt even for just a Day - plus I know what the Mordor you just went through ;) - but your name attracts the plus signs as Celuien's long sticky tongue attracts flies.

++LITTLEMANPOET

P. S. tar-ancalime, I've utilized my own pair of sandals in this post, so I'll no longer suspect you for using yours. However, you remain suspicious for that Eomer vote. Like Nilp said, it could be a wolf-on-wolf vote. On the other hand, it could be a safe random vote. It just doesn't sit right with me, now that I've thought about it.

[Celuien]

This is somewhat unsettling:


My intuition is a wolvish one (see my aforementioned past lives) and I saw plenty of it in Boromir's last minute posts. I understand he was saving his skin, but I remember a couple of times I was in the same furry position. I really felt for the guy.

More later. Let me just say... Only a fool would vote to lynch me.

Too much sympathy for the furry type. And a bit too strong on the 'don't lynch me' warning. It sounds like a variation on the old 'lynch me and you'll be sorry' bit used in desparate attempts to avoid the noose. Also odd since elempi seems to be the ead suspect today, and there are a couple of others (probably including me) ahead of him in the ranking.

Anyway, I'm not comfortable with voting elempi. That spirted defense he gave doesn't seem like something from the wolf-lmp repertoire. Although he could be pulling a bluff...

Lhuna, too, doesn't really seem too wolvish right now. I think she makes some good and interesting points in her last post, though I can't follow her vote.

Tar-a has done a good job of explaning herself, I think.

I'm almost certain Aiwendil, Farael and SpM are innocent. Boro is cleared for now by his switch back to usual practice.

My time runs short. Must leave for fly-catching duty at the frog home manufacturing plant. So...

++GARIN

Hopefully I'll make it back in time to chat some more, but I might not.

[Boromir88]

As for Boromir...too many of you seem to be treating it as though Boromir was lynched and found innocent. This did not occur. He is still as suspicious as ever in my eyes.
I doubt this will change your mind, but you read too far into the post, but you are sticking to your guns, so that makes me think you are innocent. I don't think a wolf would continue to stick to their same reasoning if most of the village seems to think you are looking too hard at things.

I for once am beginning to watch my own back with the people who are going along saying there's nothing to make from the post you accuse me for. Which I agree them, mind you, but I find buttering up very suspicious. I think one wolf has done so (perhaps Celiuen or Lhuna fit this)

I'm sure he'll understand. I just can't afford to ignore the blighter. Once you take your eyes off Boromir's worthy, solid posts, they won't be drawn back again by lustre of shock till it's too late. I observed that even for Day 1-and like Eomer I don't see why Day 1 shouldn't be a day for discussion like any other-his posts were unusually flimsy.
Oh I understand :p , that was at a time with not much action and simply random accusations/seer talk, which I feel like not getting involved in. Then the one thing I did think was strange (Lhuna's post) I jumped to, then it was work time so I was unable to attend for the rest of the day and after this post I won't be back until late, probably half an hour before voting again.

I fear this DAY 1 would turn into a 'Lynch him!'-'No, lynch him!' between lmp and Boro that would cost us two innocents and enough confusion for the Werewolves to hide behind in. How about we back off for a while here?~Nilp
I agree, it definitely occurs to me that the wolves can be sitting back laughing at us while two innocents want eachother's heads, but you know my feeling on lmp...He's gotten me to think real hard with his posts, as I don't want to jump into an irrational decision.

lmp's post certainly has me thinking, I want to believe him, but I also never want to be dooped and fooled by a wolf...that's part of the reason for my strong feeling on lmp. Though my suspicions on Lhuna and Celuien are rising, they vote for those who are facing a lot of suspicion today...
20, now infamous as your "as usual" post, you built a theme and variations, to a crescendo of "too usual", instilling fear. I picked up on that: "Why is Boromir trying to subtly create an additional level of fear in regard to these other people? What's his game?" And the you added "this false seer scares me" ... there's that fear again. I wondered why. Perhaps Boro is actually a little scared of this situation. But maybe he's setting something up very subtly. Hmmmm! So I concluded that you were at least as suspicious as anybody else on Day 1, and more than most. As I've said before, once I make a decision, I ride it, maybe too hard. There you have it.
Which you are looking too hard at, like Anguirel...so you lessen in suspicion I'll say, but I'm certainly not willing to just believe you and accept you with open arms as you may send me to a horrible death at night!

For the record I actually buy Anguirel and lmp's suspicions on me. It wasn't my intent to cause any fear, but I can see how it looks like I did. My first post I did talk about the past village of Salem, them infamous werewolf trials in that mud hole. I don't see how that constitutes me as being a wolf, but I definitely see what you mean by me thinking I was trying to establish fear. You are wrong, because it wasn't my intent, but I can see how you get that impression.

I am more worried about those who seem to be going with the lmp/boro/anguirel debaucle-(mormegil, Lhuna, and Aiwendil). What I mean it's as if these have attempted to try and get lmp lynched today.

Mormegil starts out the day with this intricate post of the long suspicion of lmp. As I said I doubt a wolf would take such a strong stance of who to go after, and go right after some one, he did know from yesterday's posts that I would be after lmp and Aiwendil said we should look at those who voted for me. So, he did know their were suspicions established on lmp and perhaps this is his attempt to get everything going against him. But, morm has backed down from his suspicions now after hearing lmp, so I don't think him that suspicious as the other two I will mention.

Lhuna puts me in the innocent category and now votes for lmp, seemingly riding on the suspects of others.

Aiwendil has been doing a clever job of keeping fairly away, yet still seems to be egging it on. He doesn't want to commit fully to accusing lmp, but has done a good job of subtelty saying we should look at him.

Celuien as I think I said above, voted for Garin, who may be starting to get the ball dropping on him as suspicions of Garin have grown.

With all this in mind my suspects (in a jumpled no particular order, but who I will most likely be considering my votes for today...)

Lhuna
lmp
Aiwendil
Celuien

Mormegil I'm still unsure about, and because of that I don't want to rashly lynch him yet, especially since he's good to have around.

Eomer and spawn I am expecting more from our scholarly contributers. And unless I've missed something Farael and Kath too have been really quiet.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I have some rereading to do before I post more, but first, here are a few thoughts.

Holby's death. As others have said, she wasn't very clear about her dream. However, as most of you seem to think, I agree that she didn't accidentally blurt out anything that would have given away her role. So, either killing her was a random choice of the wolves or then they were after something.

Here's a little discussion I had with Holby.
Now not always but it seems suspicious when a person wants to hang someone else that had made an arbitrary or even tacky accusation when everyone else feels that it was in jest. In my experience, sometimes the tattletail had done the worst offense.(That was her answer to Aiwendil's question no.1)

If you mean that when someone who is being accused as a joke takes it seriously, it's wolvish, then I agree. However, I don't think that other villagers should disregard the accusations that people say against each other even though they seemed like a joke.True, but what I was trying to explain as another wolvish behavior for example:a third person trying to get Mormegil lynched based solely on his obvious joking-type random accusations to get discussions started, especially if the village as a whole feels what Morm did was harmless-that third person seems wolvish.

First we were talking about general situations in a village, but then she took morm as her example (with the italicized 'obvious'). She could have dreamed of him, but it's not certain. Why, morm might be a wolf who thought it would be convenient to kill someone who has just supported him because it would be so silly that no one in full possession of their senses would suspect him because of that.... I mean... Oh, well. (No, I don't find morm suspicious now.)

Now, there's the framing up option. As some of you should know, it's not always a frame-up if a villager's death clearly points at someone. :rolleyes: I wouldn't disregard the possibility that either tar-a or Lhuna could be a wolf who got scared of Holby's suspicions. There were other people, too, suspecting those two, but Holby had been pretty quiet about her opinions of other villagers until the post when she voted, so it didn't leave that many clues.


That's it about Holby. I should probably warn you that I'm going to do a summary again as soon as I can whether you like it or not. If you feel that I'm only summarizing what has happened, read between the lines (both literally and figuratively speaking) and you'll see that my opinions are pretty clearly out there. Oh, and so that no one would feel manipulated by the "long post = poster is innocent, short post = poster is guilty" fallacy, I can divide it into smaller pieces if you want to. :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

:p (You clever cats)

Yes, I've been quieter than usual. I'm finding it more difficult to get onto the interne.........vvvvillage these days so please bear with me.

And don't for one moment disregard myself, Kath, spawn and the other quieter villagers. This is looking dangerously like we're going to lynch littlemanpoet, then Boromir, then Garin, then tar, and then whoever else is picking fights with each other. Wolves thrive on village in-fighting so never ignore the villagers who are staying well out of it.

I know that implicates myself but I think it's a point well worth making.

Formendacil is looking very tricksy to me at the moment. I'm away to 'check the archives', so to speak. Be back quite soon (hopefully).

[mormegil]

I'm back and fairly confused. I still don't know why we haven't heard from Kath and Farael. I really want to hear from them before I vote. As it stands I still suspect LMP, but also Tar-A though I'm confused about her too. However Celuien is still hanging around in my mind as is Anguirel among others.

I appreciate Eomer's comments about not ignoring the quiet ones. The biggest problem is that it's hard to lynch them because of lack of evidence, but I will begin to go after them if nobody else seems overly suspicious in my mind.

[Anguirel]

Right. I think I might embark on one of those dreaded lists. But before then I do have a major point to make.

Although I think the noble Viscount Kettle, aka the Saucepan Man is too quick to dismiss the case against Boromir88, he does make a great deal of sense when he suggests we look in closer detail at the Gil-Galad voters. For a lot who have, after all, succeeded in lynching an innocent, they're sounding remarkably pious and self-justifying today.

Vide mormegil's patrician little remark about Gil always being an unwitting cobbler anyway. However accurate this is, it is misleading. It hides the fact that you, morm, did the obvious thing with the obvious result.

It's no coincidence that the Gil-Galad voters coincide heavily with the voters suggesting that the Boromir bandwagon was founded on little or no evidence. The possible misdeed of the Boro-voters-who might still be right-is to them a far more suspect misdemeanour that their own understandable mistake.

But come on. Lynching Gil-Galad is the action of a sleepwalker, a mere reflex, not a case. "Stop behaving like a fool! Die!" Is there really so much fabulous evidence in that? So much more tactical than wanting Boromir to at least undergo a proper test? Before I mentioned my leading suspicion, Boromir was completely out of the picture. No one even mentioned him. And that's never a good sign.

Having said that, were I a wolf I personally wouldn't have voted to lynch Gil-Galad. Such a dull course of action.

[mormegil]

Having said that, were I a wolf I personally wouldn't have voted to lynch Gil-Galad. Such a dull course of action.

Interesting that you say this and yet didn't vote Gil. Are we to assume that you are a wolf then Master Anguirel?

Again I do not regret my vote for Gil, while not a wolf I think it helps the village in the long run the wolves probably would never kill him and we would be left with an unhelpful enigma. Much time of our days would be wasted in debate as to whether or not we should kill him. So I made a preemptive strike.

[Anguirel]

A facile point, mormegil. Yes, if you like, of course you're entirely free to think me a wolf.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I picked on Formendacil in my last post, but looking back at his contribution this day he does explain his vote for Boromir very well. I am inclined to back off him for now, although I was suspicious of the whole Day One is unhelpful play he made yesterday. It all seemed like a bit of an excuse to not look at him critically. Though having indeed looked at him critically, he seems to pass.

Which, in itself, makes me suspect him—as if he said 'Don't look at me! But in case you do, I've got it covered nonetheless.' Too clever for his own good? Is Formendacil clever? :p ;)

I guess anything can be construed as wolvish.

[tar-ancalime]

I agree with Eomer of the Rohirrim that the four most likely suspects for the day seem to be:

Garin
me
littlemanpoet
Boromir88

With one exception I don't really see what all the fuss is about.

lmp is being argumentative, chimerical, and caustic. That's business as usual and no real reason to suspect him, though a lmp-free village would certainly be less confusing. He is expecting us to take his word for it when he says things like "but that's what I've thought all along!" It's the Gaurhoth equivalent of "I meant to do that!" or "The sun was in my eyes!" But this ground has been covered by others and I won't rehash it. It strikes me as entirely in character for him and no reason to suspect him....any more than usual.

The suspicion that seems to be building against Boromir88 continues to baffle me. I've never lived in a village with him before, so perhaps there's an elephant in the room that everyone but me can see, but from where I sit there's nothing outstanding about his posts. That doesn't mean I think he's innocent, mind you--I'm just not sure where the suspicion comes from.

I'm engendering suspicion, as I always seem to (sigh). I honestly don't know why. The flip-flop thing i've addressed. I can only really find one other concrete suspicion: Aiwendil doesn't like that I'm "maneuvering." Well, what on earth are the rest of us doing? Perhaps I'm not as adept at it as some. But yeah, I"m maneuvering. I'm manipulating. I'm trying to get people's goats a little bit. It's largely because I don't think we've made a lot of progress since yesterday. I don't have a clear picture of anyone yet; I'm still fishing for reactions and trying to get to know everyone. So if that means I'm suspicious, that's cool.

Garin, on the other hand, seems to be acting deliberately to obscure things. In response to my request that he explain his vote for Boromir88, he suggested (as I predicted) that Boro and I were wolves in alliance; he then wrote this (emphasis mine):

It was the first day, and who says I will vote the same way? Boromir is not a proven innocent... unlike Gil.
My intuition is a wolvish one (see my aforementioned past lives) and I saw plenty of it in Boromir's last minute posts. I understand he was saving his skin, but I remember a couple of times I was in the same furry position. I really felt for the guy.

I explained that I had little time to listen to our fellow villagers and quickly perused their comments. I could just as easily be questioned for getting on a Lhuna bandwagon or killing an innocent Gil. I evened things up, as I said, to examine the last minute votes and posts.

I hope to explain why I found Boro's posts suspicious, but I must go now. I have less time for village than I hoped, kill me if you must.

What he essentially says is that, like lmp, he's using his "intuition" to channel some kind of weird spectral suspicion against Boromir88. He didn't listen to anyone else; he saw things that bothered him in Boro's last posts. He "hope[s] to explain," but (shockingly) this does not occur. He then returns to post several times about the False Seer, still not having provided this mysterious explanation. Keeping the suspicion of Boromir alive while not revealing anything? Yeah, my vote today has got to go to

++Garin

[Anguirel]

No, I don't buy this Garin thing. His character is not that of a wolf in sheep's clothing, but a bit more subtle than that-a Hyrcanian rhinoceros in wolf's clothing in sheep's clothing. He's a natural wolf, but also a natural unsuccessful wolf, from what I've seen of him.

Basically tar-ancalime is accusing him for using an approach based on empathy and extensive perusal of space between lines. But sometimes I think such a tactic can be of use to the village, as I've said many times before. Logic is a cesspit. Sometimes people would get on faster if they listened to the "weird spectral urges", rather than employing their vaunted logic to do the thing they've already done the last seventeen times.

If a Gil vote yesterday was uninspired and clunking, and a Boromir88 vote was, and to hear many, is, fairy-chasing, then perhaps a compromise can be found in the third most successful bandwagon-Lhuna's. I now intend to investigate the evidence, the history and the ramifications of the Case Against The Princess...

One more point before I do so-I distrust any and all posts, like tar-ancalime's above, that take an extremely narrow premise and refuse to broaden it. tar limited herself to considering three options. That's the kind of play that gets innocents killed for sterile, traditional reasons.

[littlemanpoet]

Lhuna's list of innocents is too long for so early in this holocaust. It possibly means she must know something. Only werewolves know that much.

[Farael]

Note to self: do NOT try to heat a big ball of 1,2,3.4-aminothiatriazoles at temperatures over 130 degrees C.

HA! Try to find my anagram there.... and while you are at it, try declaring in clear words whether or not you are a wolf.

Just to clear something Lhuna said... no, even though I mentioned the hunter as a substituent, I mentioned it as a reactant with the wolves to form a happy village or something like that... I still want to try that reaction but it might have to wait a little.

Does anyone else feel Garin's not-so-subtle hint very unsettling? I'm confused, had he never been in a wolf-infested village in other lives of his I would understand, but as an experienced player he should know better! Still, of course, I am not quite certain Aiwendil is innocent. I know, this might be 'overkill' and what saved my acid-burned rear-end yesterDay might be bad today yet... I do believe that there is something fishy (or should I say wolfy?) with this villager.

I don't think I'll vote for him toDay given that he is not likely to get lynched and he is not the only suspicious one but... I will be back soon with more evidence against him. I think I can still dig up some more.

And just remembering something that happened in a village of werewolves infested by heroes, I beg Aiwendil does no take my 'attacks' personally... I'm just playing the game, whatever I say is not meant to imply in any way what I think of you outside of the village.

[Anguirel]

If that's serious, LMP, it's as cheap as the point morm scored against me a second ago, or against you about the silver knives! Be a tad more reasonable...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

As promised... (Note: I'm cross-posting with everyone after post #165)

Anguirel: Although Holby suspected Lhuna and tar-a, doubts that she dreamed of either. Possibly dreamed of morm, but that doesn't seem very likely to him. Thinks the wolves spotted Holby to be the Seer, asks if/ suggests that the False Seer should reveal themselves providing a known innocent. Thanks Nilp for suspecting him, because it may make him stay alive longer. Reminds that Boromir isn't a proven innocent and agrees with Eomer that Day 1's discussion didn't have to differ so much of any other Day's discussion and (therefore) he found Boro's posts flimsy. Later agrees with Aiwendil that the Seer is useless except as a proven innocent and they shouldn't reveal themselves yet.

- If the wolves really spotted Holby because of the quote... Well, I'm speechless. My thoughts on the Seer matter are in post #165. -

Celuien: Didn't suspect that Holby was the Seer, thinks it was just a lucky chance for the wolves that they picked Holby. Thinks Holby didn't dream of morm and it would be better for the False Seer to stay hidden for now. Says Lhuna's behaviour was a bit strange and is puzzled by lmp's, explains why she was involved in speaking of the Seer yesterDay. Votes for Garin because of "too much sympathy for the furry type" and his 'don't lynch me' post. Isn't comfortable with voting for lmp because of his defence which, however, might be a bluff. Doesn't find Lhuna wolvish now and thinks tar-a's "flip-flop" explanation is good. Is almost certain that Aiwendil, Farael & Sauce are innocent and clears Boro for now.

morm: Agrees with Ang that Holby didn't dream of tar-a, but is suspicious of her anyway and makes a case against lmp (#110). Doesn't understand the Boromir bandwagon, but tries to look closer at him toDay. However, finds lmp more suspicious than Boromir. Thinks that if lmp's a wolf, tar-a probably isn't. Later doesn't suspect lmp so much anymore, suspects tar-a and isn't convinced by the accusations made against Garin. Doesn't regret voting for Gil because eliminating him isn't that big a loss, admits that he had forgot the double lynching rule, too. Says the False Seer is useless now, but it could be helpful is s/he came forward thus protecting the true Gifteds.

- Well, it's most important that the Ranger stays alive. The wolves attacking the Hunter might be a good think for us if s/he chooses the target well. I agree with most of the villagers that it's too early for the False one to reveal themselves that it would really benefit us. -

Glirdan: Says his part in Gil's death was completely randomness and hopes it isn't held against him.

- Really, now? You just happened to pick Gil who fell in your 'silent people' category. Besides, in your post #14 you said it was mostly random. I'm not holding anything against you (yet), but it would be nice if you stood behind your actions. -

Says his suggestion to lynch the quiet ones was a mere ploy to make people talk which kind of failed, wants to look at Lhuna and agrees with lmp saying that if the wolves are smart, they don't use the quiet/moderate/talkative combination.

- Actually, the problem with that kind of thinking is that the way the wolves act depends on who they are. If the wolves are talkative by nature, it looks weird if two of them start holding back. If the wolves are smart, they act like they would act when they're innocent. -

Answers Aiwendil's questions echoing the answers that people said yesterDay. Later repeats that he's suspicious of Lhuna and is glad that Ang liked his singing. Doesn't understand why Boro voted for Gil and says that "everyone knows fully well that if it comes down to a tie, the person to reach that number of votes first would be lynched. Your vote sealed Gil's fate."

- Well, if you read the posts before yours, you might have noticed that there really was confusion about the double lynch rule. Also, as you said, Gil would have been lynched anyway, so Boro's vote did not seal Gil's fate. -

Votes for Lhuna.

[B]Aiwendil: Had no idea that Holby was Gifted, agrees with Ang that the False Seer should probably come forth. Says Day 1's voting record needs to be looked at, somewhat understands the votes for Gil, but thinks that there would have been more suspicious villagers to vote for. Doesn't understand the Boromir bandwagon although again agrees with Ang that Boro's posts looked more helpful than they were, but that's not enough evidence. Doesn't find Ang's vote suspicious, but is more worried of Form, Garin and lmp's votes that forced Boro to vote for Gil and seal his fate. Although he finds lmp's talk against Boromir odd, is ready to give him the benefit of doubt because of his Day 1's helpfulness. Is most suspicious of Form, Garin and tar-a, who seemed to be testing different approaches, pluse her vote could be suspicious. Isn't suspicious of Glirdan anymore. Says his three questions were supposed to encourage serious discussion.

- Well, I found the question no.2 rather odd. Of course we want to keep the Gifteds alive as long as possible, so as for their strategy: do not step forward and say: "Hey, I'm the Ranger", or "Wolves, if you want to kill the Seer, pick me." Why was it all of the sudden relevant to start talking about how the Gifted's should act? That's up to the Gifteds to decide, and that question doesn't speak for Aiwendil's favour. -

Thinks the Boromir lynching campaign looks suspicious, thainks the voting record is most helpful now. Finds Form, Garin and lmp wolvish based on their votes, sayd lmp or Farael might be the False Seer. Explains that the information the False Seer gets in actually no information at all. Doesn't apologise his part in the Seer talk because thinks it didn't do any harm and it's better than random accusations.

- I agree that serious conversations are most helpful, but the Seer talk didn't make us much wiser. However, random accusations cause reactions that may prove helpful later. I hope we might get something out of the Seer conversation later, too. -

Thinks Holby's death was just a lucky pick for the wolves.
Later thinks that lmp sounds genuine, but might still be a wolf. Doesn't know what to think of tar-a, but she seemed wolvish on Day 1, suspects Form and Garin the most.

Boromir: Thinks Holby's death might have been intended to set up tar-a or Lhuna. Gives his thoughts of every villager, finds lmp, Lhuna, Garin and Celuien most suspicious. Says Form's vote makes sense, but lmp's is odd. Thinks the Seer talk was orchestrated by wolves trying to distract us from concentration on them. Because of that, suspects lmp, Ang, tar-a, spawn and Celuien.

- As I said in my posts #41 and #93, I agree that the Seer talk was mostly unnecessary. What you say makes sense, but I'd add Aiwendil and perhaps Farael on the list, though. -

Finds tar-a's apology odd. Explain his vote to Glirdan, says lmp's caught in a trap and he won't give enough reasons for suspecting Boro. Thinks Ang's innocent because he sticks to his opinion of Boro, says that buttering up is suspicious and perhaps one wolf (Celuien or Lhuna) has tried to defend him.

- That sounds plausible. I think there was a reason to vote for you, Boro, but it was hardly better than any other reason on that Day. Therefore I think it's odd to take so absolute sides on this matter. -

Agrees with Nilp's "'Lynch him!'-'No, lynch him!'" scenario and understands why lmp and Ang are suspicious of him. Mains suspects are Lhuna, lmp, Aiwendil and Celuien, is still unsure of morm. Wants to hear more from Eomer and spawn (and Kath & Farael).




~INTERMISSION~

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ha ha! What a majestic title! :D

So this post is about Farael. His actions and the response to those actions have been quite interesting.

He comes out with a blistering attack on Aiwendil, which — while I don't think is particularly strong — is still pretty interesting. Nevertheless, general reaction to the attack is peculiar:

-Aiwendil shrugs it off, basically saying 'You're wrong'

-Celuien deduces that Farael is very probably innocent.

-Nilpaurion declares that Farael is likely innocent.

-Lhunardawen declares that Farael is innocent.

-No-one else questions Farael.

I thought that maybe Farael was one of the Seers and had dreamt of Aiwendil. We now know that he is not the True Seer and I'd like him to re-evaluate his case against Aiwendil today; see if he attacks or retreats.

But why has nothing come of the Farael controversy? As soon as LMP makes his case against Boromir people attack on both sides; as soon as Mormegil attacks LMP many many words are exchanged and suspicion is thrown on all sides. What's so different about this case?

Because if a wolf can simply attack someone particulary strongly — by posting convincingly that so-and-so is a wolf — and that's all he/she has to do in order to be labelled 'Too bold to be a wolf', then he/she's going to get an easy ride.

I could be way off here; but it's something that struck me as I read the entire thread again. There seems to be a discrepancy here. Please share your thoughts.


Edit to add: Farael has just posted but I didn't see it.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

And here we go again. :p


Formendacil: Says Ang's vote for Boro played a big part in his own voting; he wanted to even up the numbers. Admits that it was a "safe" vote, but reminds others of the nature of Day 1. Thanks Boro and spawn for leaving him out of their posts, says that if he were w hiding wolf, they would be his accomplices. Defends Garin by saying that he is likely to be innocent, but isn't ready to say that he's not a wolf. Tells that he judges people based on their usual way to act. Says being suspicious is a good surviving tactic and he likes living on the edge.

- Yes, it might be a good surviving tactic for an individual to act somewhat suspiciously on purpose. However, wouldn't it be more useful for our village to act as helpful as possible and try to find the wolves? -

Doesn't think it's wise for the False Seer to step forward this early.

Garin: Explains his vote and wonders why tar-a is so concerned about it. Thinks Boro's last posts on Day 1 were wolvish because he could relate to them. Says that he could as easily be questioned for joining Lhuna or Gil bandwagon, but he voted to even things up. Says only a fool would lynch him. Thinks we should look at those who weren't involved in bandwagons. Thinks the False Seer shouldn't follow the dreams anymore but use their own logic instead. Finds it suspicious that lmp seemed to be "open to the option of Falsie coming forth". Says it would be easy for a wolf to claimto be the False Seer.

- Well, in that case I suppose the real False Seer would reveal themselves and we'd lynch the most suspicious one or both. I'm not sure if the wolves want to do such a sacrifice to get rid of the False Seer. -

littlemanpoet: Answers morm's accusations and is still suspicious of Boro. Based on Day 1's events thinks that Sauce, Farael, Aiwendil, spawn and Ang are probably innocent, and Glirdan, Nilp, Lhuna, Eomer and tar-a may be innocent. Finds morm, Form, Boro, Kath, Garin and Celuien suspicious. Later says that he voted Boro because found him wolvish (and still finds), but admits that he could be wrong ("who couldn't"). Finds Garin even more suspicious than Boro based on his post #137. Finally gives reasons for his suspicions of Boromir (look at #20). Thinks the False Seer should keep dreaming and wonders how morm and Boro will use that statement against him. Leans towards morm's innocence and agrees that the False Seer isn't useful after all.

Sauce: Lists the votes, doesn't think that the False Seer should reveal themselves yet saying that their dreams might still be of some use. Finds the Boro bandwagon strange, but the votes for Gil even more suspicious. Thinks Glirdan's vote for Gil is too risky for a wolf, though. Corrects the misconception of a tie, thinks at least 1 wolf voted for Gil or was saved by other one voting for Gil. Suspects morm, Kath, Celuien, lmp and Lhuna. Thinks the wolves were just lucky to pick Holby. Says some of morm's points of lmp are good, agrees with Boro that it's possible that the wolves were responsible of the Seer talk which points to Aiwendil, lmp and maybe Celuien.

Nilp: Finds the Boro bandwagon oddly flimsy and hurried, says Gil bandwagon was quite predictable, but Kath and Celuien's votes seem unreasoned, but not as much as those in the Boro wagon. The votes for Lhuna were really unexpected, but thinks (hopes) that everyone who voted for her are innocent. Clears Farael for now, thinks tar-a's vote for Eomer might be a wolf voting for another wolf.

- Sounds plausible, especially because I think there's something wrong with Eomer, and I'm going to go analyzing his posts when I'm done. -

Thinks that Lhuna and Aiwendil are innocent, most suspicious of lmp, And, tar-a, Form and Garin. Later says that lmp is defensive, but that's quite understandable, and the quarrel between lmp and Boro may result the deaths of two innocents. Finds tar-a susicious, says Garin is Garin, but will keep an eye on him, isn't suspicious anymore. Votes for Ang because his Boromir campaign seemed too unreasoned.

- Trio Doom! Quite fitting name for the wolves. Oh, and please keep off the grass. My sheep are trying to eat. -

tar-ancalime: Doesn't think looking at those who voted for Gil helps much because he was an easy target.

- I think that's a reason why we should look at them. It's too easy to hide there. -

Doesn't understand the Boro bandwagon, wants lmp and Garin to explain their votes, apologises if her post make Boro and her look like fellow wolves. Explains her apology by quoting Garin and explains her "flip-flopping".

Lhuna: Thinks those who voted for her are innocent, poses a rhetorical questionabout safe votes, thinks Glirdan is either innocent or a dumb wolf. Suggests tha Ang and Glirdan are connected, Farael's the Hunter, suspects lmp, Ang, Kath, Celuien, Garin and tar-a, and finds Sauce, morm, Eomer, Aiwendil, spawn, Boro, Glirdan and Farael innocent, but says that her opinions shouldn't be taken too seriously. Wants the False Seer to come forth only if they are about to get lynched. Thinks Ang might be guilty because he tried to explain the wolves' pick by quoting Holby, finds morm's vote unsettling and answers Glirdan's questions of her vote jokingly. Votes for lmp, agrees with Nilp that tar-a's vote for Eomer might be a wolf on wolf vote.


That's it, I think. If I accidentally left something out, it's because my brain has softened for staring at the comp... eh, palantir too long.

[Garin]

1) I suspected Boromir due to his earliest comments. I was able to read all of the posts but not thoroughly and I certainly read the posts concerning and authored by my votee for that day.

2) Memories light the corners of my mind. I found the last minute posts by Boromir wolvish because I have been there. For those who point out my "I felt for the guy" comment as being wolvish, I guess you are conceding that Boromir is a werewolf.

3) I didn't intend to hint that I was a gifted. I am an ordinary baker with not much to live for and really don't care if you lynch me but only for my devotion to the village's success.

4) I think out my decisions but I regret lacking the time to document them to serve and educate the village. I've had last minute things evolve and have nary the time to sit at a computer for too long. Sorry village. I loathe the unhelpful and I'm trying not to be one of them.

5) I currently suspect tar-ancalime and Boromir and truly want to expound but the baking must come first.

As for Celuien. You'd rather be an animal than a respectable trade? Interesting. But I don't have enough suspicion just yet.

Edit: Changed "baking must be come first."

[Anguirel]

Eomer's post on Farael is most interesting-especially as people have used similar logic to say I'm probably innocent because of the vehemence of my attacks on Boromir. In both cases, Eomer is right that the assumption should be questioned.

Now...it's interesting to see that all the voters on the Lhuna bandwagon have generally kept out of the Boromir/LMP controversy. This lot are, or would like to be pictured as, "the Voice of Reason".

Saucie has behaved as diplomatically as his occupation would suggest, rubbishing the Boromir case while investigating the Gil-Galad bandwagon.

Eomer has posted many observations of clarity and sanity like the one above, and also at a timely moment reminded the village at large to remember to look at relatively quiet contributors, like him and Spawnowen.

Lady Spawn herself has weathered the criticism of her method and ploughed on teasingly with her impartial analyses.

My point is, you may wonder? Well, I'm not sure. It's interesting that the Lhuna voters all occupy sensible mediating roles, but rather than pointing to their guilt I think it may simply imply that the Lhuna cause was more astute than the Gil-Galad bandwagon, and, ah, less limbstretching than the Boromir bandwagon.

So ultimately, I'm strongly tempted to vote Lhuna this evening, and also Nilp-though I am hampered in both cases by the fact that they suspect me and it may seem to be spite. But it isn't, honest. It's the recognition that attacking Boromir was a gamble that doesn't appear to have been very lucrative, more's the pity...

[Farael]

Post#112
Says he’s concerned of those who voted against Boromir. He argues for Anguirel’s innocence (given that it was Day 1 and he was spreading his votes… I believe that it has also something to do with Anguirel being dangerously smart as an enemy) and so suspects mostly Formendacil, Garin and LMP. Then he drops LMP off the list (does anyone else find a pattern here?) and goes after Formendacil and Garin…. Which are fairly safe accusations to make. Formen has been under a bit of suspicion and Garin seems to be most skilful at getting himself killed or at least under suspicion than Nilp.

The other person I'll be watching carefully today is Tar-Ancalime. YesterDAY, she was my top suspect. While I admit that the DAY 1 evidence was slim, I still can't help but feel that she has been "testing" various approaches (moratorium on Seer talk, suspicion of Spawn) and then very quickly backing off when they come under fire. Her vote for Eomer looks like a typical, random DAY 1 vote - but it also looks like a fairly safe vote for a Wolf.

Yet another safe suspicion by Aiwendil. And if I’m not confused, Aiwendil himself has been a little flippy-floppy as well. That by itself is not a bad thing on Day 1, but again, it all adds up, little by little.

Now on to post#139

It occurs to me that I didn't offer an answer to my own question 1 from yesterday

I can’t recall who started the argument of Boromir trying to look helpful while doing very little but…. Look!! Right there!! If that’s not trying to be helpful while being quite innocuous then I’m the True Seer

And here we have a little contradiction
It seems to me that voting is the one place where the wolves can't hide. A wolf, it seems to me, will be willing to say anything. But what a wolf fears is the hangman's noose - whether it be 'round his/her own neck or a compatriot's. To put it another way: wolves and villagers will probably sound more or less alike, but they won't vote alike
Somewhat true, very safe thing to say and yet…. Also somewhat wrong. It would be a BIG mistake to disregard the accusations and reasoning because you can also find werewolves in there. Werewolves cannot bandwagon with other people’s ideas for ever because sooner or later they will get lynched for bandwagonning (a cardinal sin of werewolf) and therefore they ought to bring up new ideas, new accusations… and of course, they are limited on who they can point their fingers at. By the way, I ask of you fellow villagers… what have I been saying about today’s featured acusee (Aiwendil I mean) for a while now? He has been all to willing to forgive some and accuse others.

Aiwendil himself realizes his last comment was not the best because he follows it with

Having said that, it would be foolish to look at the votes and ignore the discussion. No doubt there are signs of wolvishness to be found in the discussion. But it seems to me that those signs will be harder to read there than in the voting record
Flip Flop!!!! Right there!! Wasn’t Aiwendil himself the one to argue that flip-flops were suspicious? He’s saying A LOT of things and yet adding VERY LITTLE. Look at it, he says that the voting record is the chief tool for finding the wolves, as wolves would be willing to say anything to defend themselves, then he says that it would be foolish to ignore the discussion, then he says that the voting record is still the best way to go.

First of all, I would assume that most of the experienced gamers know all of this. And I don’t think we have any rookies in this village, do we? Second, it was a flip-flop… definitely a flip-flop

Third, YesterDay Aiwendil made a comment of the Seer being most useful dead (happy now?) now he makes a comment about the votes being the most useful way of finding wolves…. Does anyone else get the feeling that he is trying to restrict the range of information we work with? Ever so subtly and without totally compromising in favour of his own ideas, he hints that maybe we should stop paying so much attention at what was said and pay more attention at what was voted.

Well Aiwendil, are you afraid that someone will dig-up something you said that you rather left forgotten? And furthermore, it’s Day 2… while we have SOME voting evidence, we are still pretty ‘naked’ with regards to voting patterns and such.

On the same post (136) he expresses concerns for chiefly for Formendacil, somewhat for Garin and then LMP…. But the accusation against LMP is the most ‘watered’ one. Pretty weak as accusations go.

A little more down his post, Aiwendil defends his role in yesterDay’s seer-talk. Nothing wrong with that, besides the fact that he seems all too willing to drop the subject.

In the event, it turned out to be wasted, but only because we were so unlucky as to have our True Seer die on the first NIGHT (bolding by me)
It’s not all said and done, the Seer talk might still bring up some information!! I wouldn’t disregard ANYTHING said as possible evidence… as you can probably see.

On to post 154
So LMP has responded to the accusations coming his way. He sounds genuine to me. But, then, I don't doubt that he'd make a clever wolf, or that he'd be able to modulate the tone of his posts to suit his needs.
The fact that Aiwendil rises LMP’s name so often and yet accuses him so little is making alarms sound all over the place. This last quote, for example, says that LMP sounds innocent to him, but then LMP is clever enough to sound innocent when he is not. Really good move if you are a wolf. If LMP gets lynched, he can say that he still had some suspicions… if LMP is forgiven by most of the village, he can say that he did not really suspect him after all. This is followed by
And I keep coming back to what I mentioned earlier - that the one place where a wolf can't hide is in his vote - though he can, of course, try to explain it away the next DAY
Well, again, saying lots of words and very little information… the wolf can’t hide in his vote, but the wolf can try to explain it. See? Both sides of the coin, he might just be a very, VERY cautious villager…. But then, so much caution points towards him being a wolf trying to sound reasonable and at the same time, not give anything for others to really rally around.

LMP claims that he suspected Boromir before Ang posted his suspicion; he then expresses exasperation when this claim is doubted. Now, LMP, it seems to me that no one is denying that you could very well have come to suspect Boromir before Ang's post. For my part, your story (i.e. simply not enough time to post earlier) is a perfectly believable one. But that doesn't mean that it's true. The fact remains that we had no evidence that you suspected Boromir until very late in the DAY. Surely you acknowledge that, from out perspective, your claim to have suspected him earlier could be a wolf's frantic attempt at backpedaling and getting out of a tight squeeze.

Having said that, I don't think I'll be voting for LMP today. My reasoning is that, so far, the only real piece of evidence I can find against him is his sudden anti-Boromir stance. Everywhere else, he has (to me at least) appeared to be a genuinely helpful innocent. If he's a wolf, he's doing a remarkable job of playing that role. As of toDAY, I think there are others suspects that it would be better to look at.
The first paragraph had me thinking for a moment that I was aiming my sights at the wrong person…. Look!! He is actually suspecting LMP and in a very careful way, he’s saying that LMP could easily be ‘back-pedaling and getting out of a tight squeeze’

Then the second paragraph comes and AGAIN, Aiwendil lets LMP off the hook. His last sentence seems pretty innocent but given my thoughts that he might be trying to subtly manipulate the village’s eyes to focus towards a certain point (away from the seer ‘till he’s dead, away from the discussions and into the voting… and now away from LMP and against easier targets?) I find it fishy as well.

By the way, having finished my reading and accusing based on Aiwendil’s posts, I find something that spawn brings up very interesting(no my friend, you are not in the clear just yet, I’m finding you useful for the time being and that’s it) If I’m not mistaken Aiwendil suggests that I might just be the False Seer (which I’m afraid I am not). Wouldn’t it be great for a wolf if I were? All my previous accusations are moot (hey, he was the false seer acting on false information!!) and he’s on the clear for a couple of days (come on, it was the False Seer thinking I’m a wolf, don’t pay attention to accusations based on that)

Ok, still catching up…. Eomer, you are right… I am playing the safest game for a wolf because no wolf would be THAT bold… I’ll keep it in mind if I ever AM a wolf, but this time I’m afraid I’m not.

Finally, I just had a moment of clear thought and another reason against Aiwendil sprouted up. I’m alive. Think about it, what reasons were there to kill Holby? Slim to none, if you ask me. She didn’t sound too seer-like, and she didn’t make any strong accusations against other villagers. I have….if the wolves had killed me, they could have easily started a bandwagon against Aiwendil without getting their hands too dirty (after all, the one who starts a bandwagon is rarely suspected, but those who follow them are…)

My friends, I said I would not vote for my acusee just because it didn’t seem likely that I’d get him lynched just today but if you got this far into my post I ask of you…. Re-consider your stance, it’s not too late to get rid of this wolf

++Aiwendil

[Farael]

Sorry to double-post, I forgot to say

Odds are I will leave in about an hour and not come back 'till after the deadline. Good hunting!!

[The Saucepan Man]

Is it just me, or is this possibly the most talkative village in the history of Werewolf-beset villages. Even I am having a hard time keeping up! :eek: ;)

Apologies for my absence for much of today, but legal – er – foreign dignitarial duties have kept me occupied for most of the day.

For now, two few brief observations.

On the False Seer thing, I defer to Aiwendil’s undoubted greater knowledge on probability theory. But I still think he/she should remain hidden. As others have said, a known innocent is generally more useful when the Wolf:Villager ratio is lower than it currently is.

And I am not at all convinced that all these “signs” are genuine. I trust Nilp, for now, because we have history. But it seems to be becoming yet another bandwagon (to adopt a much-used phrase) as far as I can see …

More detailed thoughts to follow, once I have had a chance to catch up.

[Garin]

Sauce: Is it just me, or is this possibly the most talkative village in the history of Werewolf-beset villages. Even I am having a hard time keeping up

I agree completely.

Back to baking.

[Anguirel]

Well...what an interesting legacy Farael has left us.

I must say that if I were the sort to be convinced, then it's quite a case. Though the obsession with Aiwendil not wanting to pick a fight with LMP doesn't seem all that plausible.

I'd had Farael down as the False Seer myself, I must admit. There's an outright denial for the wolves and villagers alike to consider. Hmmm.

I think this time, the ripples may be larger. They certainly deserve to be. That was a fine philippic.

[Aiwendil]

Farael - No, I don't take your attack personally. I am rather bewildered by it. You take much of what I say quite out of context, and you attribute opinions to me that I have not expressed. For instance, you take one of my statements out of context and thereby conclude that I want "to disregard the accusations and reasoning". When, upon reading my comment in full, you find that this is not so, you call it a "flip flop". It's not; it's a simple, coherent position: voting record = most reliable; discussion = important but less reliable. (And by the way, I was not the one to argue that "flip flops" are suspicious. I never even used that phrase until this post).

You again accuse me of "flip flopping" with regard to LMP. Again, I think I have expressed a single, coherent opinion of him - that his vote makes him look suspicious, but that Garin, Form, and possibly Tar look more suspicious to me. That's not flip-flopping; it's holding a reasoned, considered opinion (we can't all be as single-mindedly stubborn as you, I'm afraid).

Anyway, I don't want to waste a lot of time defending myself against what seem to me to be rather tenuous arguments (but then, I know I'm innocent; perhaps that's why the arguments seem so weak to me). There is only one other point I want to address with regard to my past behaviour, and that is one made by Dancing Spawn:

Well, I found the question no.2 rather odd. Of course we want to keep the Gifteds alive as long as possible, so as for their strategy: do not step forward and say: "Hey, I'm the Ranger", or "Wolves, if you want to kill the Seer, pick me." Why was it all of the sudden relevant to start talking about how the Gifted's should act? That's up to the Gifteds to decide, and that question doesn't speak for Aiwendil's favour.

I don't see why it should be taboo to talk about the Gifteds. Of course their actions are ultimately up to them to decide. And of course no one thinks they should step forward and say "I'm the Ranger" or the like.

But there are different approaches available to a Gifted. For instance - does the Seer leave hints at the risk of being discovered or keep as quiet as possible until he/she has gathered a good deal of information? Does the Ranger try to protect the Seer at all costs or to protect the person he/she deems most likely innocent? Etc. If I were Gifted (which I'm not), I certainly wouldn't mind a few helpful suggestions.

Now I'm off to review the posts a bit more, particularly to see whether Tar-Ancalime still looks as suspicious to me as she did yesterDAY.

Edit: Crossed with Ang and Garin

[Garin]

I am going to stand by my vote. I am indebted to him because he suddenly failed to list me as a suspect. Interpret this as you must.

I stand by my suspicions and shall vote now.

I must leave the Downs until the reckoning hour.

++ Boromir

[Anguirel]

So far...

Glirdan voted for Lhuna

Nilp voted for Anguirel

Lhuna voted for LMP

Celuien voted for Garin

tar-ancalime voted for Garin

Farael voted for Aiwendil

Garin voted for Boromir

Which leaves me in a spot-stick to my guns and vote Boromir, dieing in the last ditch as it were, or fluctuate and vote Lhuna as I've been considering? I too will have to depart in an hour at most...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Sounds plausible, especially because I think there's something wrong with Eomer, and I'm going to go analyzing his posts when I'm done.
So...


#42 - First there's some semi-obligatory occupation talk.

His wolf catching method is: "What would a wolf do? How would a wolf post?" Fair enough, that sounds reasonable.

"I believe (and please debate this with me) that on Day One, wolves are going to be mostly timid: not too keen on offering big ideas, convoluted strategies, or hardline accusations." ~Eomer

Well, that's how he acted on Day 1. Maybe you're a wolf and you had to confess your sin?

#55 - Thinks that wolves will apologise their votes: "I expect many 'Ooh, I'm sorry for voting this way's and 'I'll vote for you but I'm really not sure's—that kind of thing from any wolf, as long as they are not bold."

Also: "I suppose that at least one and probably more are going to be extremely 'friendly', if you understand me."

All this sounds plausible. Already two posts without a word of fellow villagers... A trick how to appear useful without joining the conversations much.

#59 - Explains Glirdan, Gil and Lhuna's votes. Conclusion: "Wolvish? I cannot tell."

#72 - Now, here's something we may call an accusation.
The Mormegil's post #29 is a bit weird. Remember he had previously accused tar-ancalime, Celuien, Gil and Holbytlass (seemingly randomly). In #29 he says that they had all responded in the way he had expected them to (apart from Gil). What happened was this: Holby and Celuien laughed it off; tar-ancalime didn't even mention it; and Gil defended himself against Glirdan's vote, not mentioning Mormegil either. Mormegil then says he will continue to hold them (whoever 'they' are) in high suspicion. No, wait, we may not: "I'm not accusing you Morm."

Also, he asks Sauce's opinion if it would be acceptable to vote for tar-ancalime. Or that's how it looks like.

"While tar's vote for me does seem slightly odd, I'm hesitating to vote for her because it will look like it's done out of spite." ~Eomer

"Saucepan Man, you have also commented on tar's vote. Do you think there could possibly be unity between tar and dancing spawn, and that they tried to insert a little bit of early animosity between them?" ~Eomer

[ You know, I had somehow missed this post... Eomer, m'dear, I've never heard that a ':rolleyes:' would mean 'I love you', but I have to keep that in my mind. :D The smiley was supposed to refer to my paranoia which is now (almost) cured. As I said, I didn't see your suspicions of me earlier, and I'm sorry if you feel that I'm making this case against you just out of spite. ]

#78 - "Formendacil's vote for Boromir88—he attempts to pass the blame to Anguirel should it prove nasty for the village. Could be nothing; but isn't Formendacil usually more vocal?" ~Eomer

Why so insecure?

Votes for Lhuna because she fell into the 'friendly' category. Well, I can hardly hold that against him seeing that I voted for her, too, and that was one of the reasons why.

#166 - Says that we should look at the quieter villagers. A fine suggestion, I agree. But the way that he says it, mentioning that he's including himself to the list twice... Looks like by putting himself to the list so openly, he's looking sooo helpful and friendly - just like he said that a wolf would act.

Then he says that "Formendacil is looking very tricksy" to him at the moment. No reasons.

#171 - Well, he's not suspicious of him after all: "I picked on Formendacil in my last post, but looking back at his contribution this day he does explain his vote for Boromir very well. I am inclined to back off him for now..."

On second thought, he is: "...although I was suspicious of the whole Day One is unhelpful play he made yesterday. It all seemed like a bit of an excuse to not look at him critically."

And isn't: "Though having indeed looked at him critically, he seems to pass."

But still is: "Which, in itself, makes me suspect him."

"I guess anything can be construed as wolvish." ~Eomer

Now, that was revealing. :p

All in all, Eomer tries to appear helpful and friendly, but he says very little in his posts. No real suspicion in any direction that would make his hands dirty. Pretty clever. Right now Eomer's looking somewhat questionable to me. However, his point about Farael is interesting, and probably worth of taking a look at.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I might not be back later.

++LHUNARDAWEN

I gave my reasons yesterday and they remain worthy. I will show her no mercy despite her plea for friendship. My dear princess, you and I shall always be enemies within Werewolf, I fear. :D

[Aiwendil]

Post 22 - Tar-ancalime's infamous "moratorium on Seer talk" proposal. She says:
I'd like to propose a moratorium on Seer talk--we can't know who is true until one of them dies, and the longer we wait the more information we'll get. So let's play as though neither of them is here.


In post 35, she responds to Lhunardawen thus:
While it's always wise to suspect those who disagree with me (and it's a method I often employ, in Gaurhoth as in life), I wouldn't go that far here, Lhuna. I don't want to create any kind of cut-and-dried loyalty-oath-like environment: those are the easiest situations for wolves to wriggle out of.

YesterDAY, I said this looked like a wolf maneuvering. I still think it could be. But as I read and consider post 22 more carefully, it seems to me that it could just as easily - perhaps more easily - be nothing more than what it is at face value. That is, that Tar never intended the "moratorium" to be a platform from which to begin a wolf-hunt.

Post 44 - Agrees with SPM that too much seer talk can only help the wolves. But then says that early seer talk might be helpful later. One might call this a flip flop (eh, Farael?). But, though I think Tar does mildly contradict herself here, it doesn't seem a particularly Wolvish tactic in this case.

What worries me more is from later in this post:
Something about dancing spawn's post really rubs me the wrong way. It's so long, so intricate, and so devoid of any new information. Being as it's the first day and all, and as my vote is going to have to come in the next few hours, unless I see anything that compels me to place my vote elsewhere I'm likely to go with the dancing spider.


I can see nothing in the analysis by Dancing Spawn to which Tar was responding that suggests wolvishness. Surely we're all familiar with the "go through the villagers one by one" style of discussion - so what's so strange about it here? Tar's comment still looks to me like it could be a Wolf's attempt toget some suspicion rolling against Spawn.

In the next few posts, no one seemed particularly inclined to agree that Spawn's analysis was suspicious. And in post 50, Tar backs off:

dancing spawn, you had me at "gather my thoughts." I can certainly understand that, and while my vote today is going to be somewhat random no matter what, I would rather not cast it for you.

This is just the move I'd expect from a wolf when a subtle attempt at casting suspicion has failed.

Then we have Tar's vote for Eomer. As others have observed, this could be a random DAY 1 vote. And of course "it was a random DAY 1 vote" is the perfect cover for a wolf.

Post 124 - Tar suspects something wolvish may have been going on in the Boromir campaign. Here, I'm in complete agreement with her. Which makes me wonder a bit whether I'm being duped. But in my opinion there definitely was something strange about the Boromir campaign, so it seems perfectly innocent to comment on it.

Post 161 - Defends herself against various suspicions. Not much to go on here.

Post 172 - Agrees with Eomer that "the four most likely suspects for the day" seem to be Garin, LMP, Boromir, and she herself. She doesn't see anything particularly suspicious about LMP or Boromir; against she defends herself; she says that Garin seems to be deliberately obscuring things and then votes for him.

While I disagree about LMP not being suspicious, I do quite agree about Garin. This seems like either the well-reasonsed argument of an innocent or a wolf playing it somewhat safe.

So, where does this leave me? For what it's worth, Tar isn't looking as suspicious to me anymore. The only point that still sticks out, in my opinion, is the abortive attack on Spawn. Tar is definitely still worth keeping an eye on, but I don't think she's as likely to be a wolf as Garin or Formendacil.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Thanks for the analysis, spawn, because it makes me look pretty good! :p

It's true that I haven't been overly suspicious of many villagers, but I don't think I've been the least helpful person here, as has been reinforced by a couple of other villagers (whom I thank).

I raised suspicion against Farael, Farael's explicit defenders, and Mormegil before the LMP controversy (by the way, spawn, check out the differences between suspecting and accusing—it comes in useful when talking about this game).

Also, I did explain why I found Formendacil slightly tricksy yesterday (I just didn't repeat today). And I don't know what you mean by calling me 'insecure'.

Anyway, a good post nonetheless; and I certainly won't ask people to stop asking questions of me. It's about time someone queried me. :)

[Anguirel]

I have a feeling that was a cross post! Little did Eomer know of the gathering storm-clouds...

Well, I'm going to vote with him anyway. I fear that pursuing Boromir, like chasing some mythical stag, will only bring dissatisfaction, wistfulness and mystery if public opinion remains swayed by his sane solidity.

Flay me if you like, but as a villager my job is essentially composed of hanging. Therefore-though it feels cowardly-I'd rather vote for someone who's likely to swing. And if I'm wrong I'll jolly well take the blame...

So, Your Royal Highness, with all due respect, I hope your mystery will be solved at the end of a rope's end!

++THE PRINCESS LHUNARDAWEN

I propose that our outdated feudal monarchy be replaced by oligarchical rule by the merchant and banking elite. Viva la revoluzione!

Oh, and death to those wolf types too, if possible...

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, there has been a lot to review and I can do no better than give my thoughts on each villager as I have been reading through today’s contributions.

Farael: I am not sure what to make of his obsession with Aiwendil. I thought that his case yesterday was weak and based largely on a mischaracterization of what Aiwendil had said. But he brings up some stronger points today. Aiwendil is indeed looking “suspiciously reasonable”. Farael comes across to me as either an innocent behaving like a dog with a bone (albeit possibly a valid bone) or a Wolf who has chosen to be single-minded and thereby avoid suspicion. Difficult to tell which and, since he has only really focused on Aiwendil, there is not much else to go on.

Mormegil: Seemed unusually restrained yesterday, but has been more reassuringly vocal today (or earlier today, at least). I am wary of his vote for Gil though, as Gil was an easy target for a Wolf yesterday and an easy “mistake” to explain away today. Although it by no means sealed Gil’s fate, his was the vote that promoted Gil as a candidate for the noose. As for today, he made a very strong accusation of littlemanpoet at the outset, and then backed off quite considerably when lmp responded (#148). Was this because he saw the suspicion of lmp mounting and was concerned about being implicated in the lynching of a useful innocent? That of course depends on whether lmp is innocent, and I am most certainly not convinced that he is. Quite the contrary.

Aiwendil: I remain concerned over his involvement in the Seer talk yesterday. His other contributions, yesterday and today, had come across to me as sensible and helpful. But Farael has made some valid points about him seemingly taking few risks and keeping his options open. Still keeping a close eye on him.

Glirdan: I haven’t seen anything to alter my assessment that his first day Gil vote was an unlikely vote for a Wolf. As was his vote for Lhuna, a possible candidate for lynching today. Not much else to go on, as he only really dealt with Lhuna in his contributions today. Which might, I suppose, be regarded as suspicious in itself.

Formendacil: Well, I am prepared to buy his explanation of his vote for Boro for now. It looks to have been a sensible vote at the time he voted. Not much else to go on, really.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: Still talking sense. Which still makes me wary of her. :rolleyes:

Nilpaurion Felagund: Still innocent. Probably. :D

Lhunardawen: I suspected her enough to vote for her yesterday because of her vote for Glirdan, an easy target, and her reaction to his suggestion to lynch the quiet ones. She is implicated by Holby’s death. Holby suspected her, but not strongly enough to mark out a clear trail of blood from Holby’s corpse to her door. And she seems overly defensive about her time-zone malady, the problems of which I think we all know and understand by now. Her vote for lmp went along with the general feeling about him at the time, but it could be a risky vote if he is lynched and turns out innocent. Still, I already have her down for a bold Wolf if she is one. Still looking very suspicious to me.

Eomer of the Rohirrim: Not really sure what to make of Eomer. He has been present, but I don’t really get much of a sense about him from what he has said. Which, as spawn has said, might be regarded as suspicious. Not enough to draw any firm conclusions on yet, but I would prefer to see more substance from him.

Littlemanpoet: Still suspicious for his contributions to the strategy discussion yesterday (particular the Seer talk, which was bad, elempi, as it diverted us from our proper focus – finding Wolves) and for his aggressive pursuit of Boro. Has had a good rant today and comes across as overly defensive, but that’s standard practice for him. Then again, that’s the way I would expect him to behave if he is a Wolf. One thing strikes me, though. If, as you say, you are consciously trying to act slightly suspicious, why act so prickly about being suspected? Still high on my suspect list.

Kath: I don't think that we’ve heard from her today. Her vote for Gil, putting him ahead of the others on two votes, is suspicious and could have been an attempt to save a fellow Wolf (Lhuna perhaps). My initial reaction was to view her silence as suspicious but I am not so sure on second thoughts, as staying quiet in this village is akin to drawing attention to oneself.

Garin: Problem with Garin is that he always looks suspicious and always places suspicious votes. But he seems a bit “all over the place” to me today. Declaring that only a fool would vote to lynch him, yet acting suspiciously all the same. Suggesting that the False Seer should give up dreaming. Speculating that a Wolf might try to declare as the False Seer, which would surely be suicide for a Wolf. It doesn’t add up. But our baker seems to me to be an intelligent fellow so, if he is a Wolf, his mind isn’t on the job. I somehow doubt that he is, though.

Anguirel: Calm, cool and collected. Which is precisely how I would expect a Wolf to behave. My suspicions of him are growing, but it’s just a “gut feeling” at the moment, so not enough to warrant a vote. He did explain his vote for Boro well, but he has been keeping the pressure on Boro today (while not voting for him, I notice), and I am inclined to think Boro innocent.

Celuien: Her attempt to deflect morm’s random accusation yesterday still strikes me as suspicious. Looking back, I see that her involvement in the Seer talk was not as great as I had recalled. But the speculation on whether a Wolf might impersonate a Seer looks awfully like the way a Wolf might think, and not to catch a Wolf either. And totally unnecessary, as it was a hypothetical situation. Has kept active today without really saying much that is helpful. Not sure what to make of her vote for Garin, though. Could be risky, if he’s innocent (and I am inclined to think that he is). Nevertheless, she’s still looking suspicious in my eyes.

Tar-Ancalime: The fact that Holby voted for her yesterday and then died overnight still inclines me to view tar as innocent. She has explained her switch from her suspicion of dancing spawn, although the random vote still looks strange. So, not completely in the clear, but I’m viewing her as innocent for now.

Boromir88: The main thing that concerned me about Boro was his claim that he had no choice but to vote for Gil. However, I have a feeling that he was telling the truth when he said that he thought a double lynching was on the cards. Other than that, he seems to have talked good sense today. I am inclined to trust him, for now.

To summarise:

Main suspects: mormegil, Lhunardawen, littlemanpoet, Celuin.

Although, if lmp’s a Wolf, I doubt that mormegil or Lhuna are. And vice versa.

Making me nervous: Farael, Aiwendil, Anguirel

Just don’t know: Formendacil, Eomer, Kath, spawn

Probably innocent: Glirdan, Nilp, Garin, tar, Boro

And now I must cast my vote. The thing is, if lmp’s a Wolf, I will be feeling a lot more comfortable about mormegil and Lhuna, two of my other main suspects. On the other hand, if he’s innocent, then they are looking distinctly Wolfish.

So it seems to me that finding out one way or the other will be most instructive. Sorry if that sounds callous, but there you have it.

++ LITTLEMANPOET

[Anguirel]

What an extraordinary list of probable innocents you have, my Lord Kettle! I must remember to come back and investigate it if things go awry these evening. The inclusion of Nilp makes me particularly nervous. Ah well. Dionysus and Minerva call. Later, later...

[Aiwendil]

If I've not miscounted, the votes now stand thus:

Lhunardawen: 3
Anguirel: 1
Littlemanpoet: 2
Garin: 2
Aiwendil: 1
Boromir: 1

As I've said, the two I'm most wary of toDAY are Formendacil and Garin. The number of votes against Boromir yesterDAY is just too strange for it to be wholly innocent, in my opinion. I'd wager that one of the four who voted for him - Anguirel, Form, Garin, or LMP - is a Wolf.

For reasons I've discussed, I'm inclined to keep LMP around for the moment. And Anguirel's vote from yesterDAY still doesn't look as suspicious to me as the subsequent votes.

So I'm in favour of lynching Garin or Formendacil toDAY. Which means that I'll probably vote for Garin, since Form doesn't look likely to be lynched. However - I'm not voting yet just in case a few votes for Form do accumulate (I know that a few people have mentioned that he looks suspicious). If it starts to look like there's any real chance that Form will be lynched, I will have to go back and study Garin's and Form's posts more closely, to determine which of them is more likely lupine.

Just to let my fellow villagers know where I stand at this point.

[The Saucepan Man]

What an extraordinary list of probable innocents you have, my Lord Kettle!Well, I have said why I am currently inclined to view them as innocent. As I said, they are to my mind probable innocents as matters stand. I am pretty sure about Nilp, though. If I am wrong, I will be paying an impromptu visit to the Phillippines with a very sharp stick ... :eek: :D

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Thanks for the analysis, spawn, because it makes me look pretty good! :p If you're innocent: my pleasure. However, to me it makes you look 'not so good' and as a stubborn person, I might vote for you toDay.

I would have made the case meaner, but I didn't have time.

Suspect, v.t. 1. Have an impression of the existence or presence of (danger, a plot, foul play, collusion, a casual relation); half believe to be (I ~ him to be my brother, a liar, dying); be inclined to think that or that (I ~ you once thought otherwise; also paranth., as you, I ~, don't care).
2. Incline to mentally accuse of or inculpate, doubt the innocence of, distrust, (I ~ him of lying, of deep designs; a ~ed criminal, person ~ed of being one; ~ed persons; the ignorant ~ everybody).
3. Hold to be uncertain, mistrust, doubt the genuineness or truth of, (~ the authentityof the evidence). Hence ~ABLE a. (rare). [ME, f. L suspect- (foll.)]

Accuse, v.t. 1. Charge with a fault, indict, (person), whence p.p. as noun, the ~ed; blame, lay the fault on, (person or thing, as the times); ~e as offender, of offence.
2. Point to (subj. evidence etc., obj. a person). Hence ~'ER (-z-) n., ~'ingLY (-z-) adv. [ME acuse f. OF acuser f. L AC(cusare f. causa CAUSE)]


Right. I'll be back with my vote soon.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

To put it bluntly: I have suspected people, so to suspect me on the basis of not suspecting is totally contrived and false.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Eomer, is it this line that bothers you?

"No real suspicion in any direction that would make his hands dirty." ~spawn #190

To me it looks that you mildly suspect someone, but then take you suspicions back, start asking others' opinions or start hesitating = no real suspicion. That's how it seems.


Where's Kath? She has quite a few posts to read if she intends to come back toDay.

[mormegil]

I'm finally back and caught up on all reading. Man there is a lot of talk going on!

Anyway I remain suspicious of LMP and may vote for him today, however Spawn brought up an excellent arguement against Eomer that has me thinking. I see the the Lhuna train is gaining steam and I'm inclined to view her as more suspicious now than a couple of hours ago.

Something about Anguirel still strikes me as odd though. Farael's arguement against Aiwendil is making some sense too, much more than yesterday's day arguement. Is it enough to sway my vote? Not yet but I would like to hear more tomorrow about it.

I think I will hold off on voting for a bit and see where things go because I'm inclined to vote for either Lhuna or LMP over others at this point.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm debating with myself whether to vote for Princess Lhuna or Eomer.

ToDay a few things in Lhuna's behaviour have seemed wolvish. She had these theories that there would be a connection between Anguirel and Glirdan or that Farael would be the Hunter. However, she says that her opinions shouldn't be taken too seriously. Maybe it was a joke that I didn't get, but that looked weird to me. Also, the thing that she didn't really answer Glirdan's questions about her vote worries me. The 'answers' she gave were presented in a joking manner, which directed the focus away from the fact that she really didn't give any answers. The problem is that that kind of acting belongs to her occupation...


The votes are:

Lhunardawen: 3
Anguirel: 1
Littlemanpoet: 2
Garin: 2
Aiwendil: 1
Boromir: 1

I don't want to put Lhuna that far up in the lead at this point, so I'll stick to my case against Eomer. Besides, as a priest he'll forgive me if I'm wrong, but I'd better not mess with a royal.

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

[mormegil]

I thought I could possibly wait longer but I fear I will be unable to.

++Lhuna

I'll give LMP the benefit of doubt and I agree Lhuna is acting strangely sane today ;)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm not really sure what dancing spawn is asking from me so I'll say this: I suspect everyone. That's right. There are three wolves in this village and they could be anyone for all I know.

Yes, I have suspected some people and then taken it back: It's a method called querying someone and then gauging reaction. Yes, I have asked other people's opinions: that's called interacting with the village. Yes, I have 'hesitated' (or whatever you want to call it): that's due to a lack of certainty, because I — like everyone else in this village — have no knowledge of the roles of other people. And yes, I have mildly suspected some people: I trust that most other people have mild suspicions too.

'Real suspicion' is apparently an unattainable ideal according to this lady. And I'm very confident I could insert the names of many other villagers in place of Eomer in her analysis and end up with a similar result. I hope to quiz you on that tomorrow, Spawn, because I think there's a bit of selectivity in your choice of target today.

Has anyone investigated you yet? :smokin:

Good night.

[Aiwendil]

Okay, no chance of of lynching Formendacil toDAY, so my vote is for:

++Garin

. . . or should that be Gaurin?

[Boromir88]

Well I'm back a bit early which is a good thing, now I got all this reading to do. To kind of post on what I've skimmed through and I'll go back through for further insight...

I can't understand these gathering votes for Garin. I did remark that he has seemed rather unsure and "goes with the flow" but if that's his style (as this is my first game with him) then really I don't see a particular strong reason to suspect him.

I will make a compromise with Sauce and say it's likely a wolf voted for me or Gil-galad this includes:

Glirdan
Anguirel
Formendacil
Mormegil
Kath
Celuien
Garin
lmp

For a lack of substantial evidence I am going to take out Glirdan and Kath for today.

It appears Celuien, Formendacil, Anguirel, and Mormegil will avoid the noose today.

Leaving Garin and lmp. I am more confident in lmp's guilt then Garin's but I still find myself hard to pull that platform from underneath either of them. If I'm faced with having to decide between those two, I'll vote for lmp.

Lhuna isn't on the list, and I'll read through before I make a final decision on Tar-ancalime. But Lhuna or lmp will either get my vote today.

Now it's time to get some reading done!

[littlemanpoet]

I'm back from the silver smithy at last, and have all of page 5 plus to read before I vote. I may be skimming a bit.

I did notice that Lhuna voted for me, which at this juncture I find quite an interesting reaction to my suspicion of her. Trying to shut me up before I can get others to notice your wolfishness?

I still suspect Garin Boromir, but am less suspicious of Formy. Now to read.....

EDIT: My mistake, her vote came much earlier than my suspicion of her; I hadn't seen that post until just a few minutes ago. I have lots of catching up to do. Again.

[Kath]

Kath is here and I'm trying to catch up on toDay but I fear my participation will be rushed. I'll pop the reason on the other thread.

Would someone mind putting a list of votes so far up so I can see what's going on?

[littlemanpoet]

If that's serious, LMP, it's as cheap as the point morm scored against me a second ago, or against you about the silver knives! Be a tad more reasonable... (from post #176)
Sorry to offend your sense of seriousness. At the risk of referring too specifically to a "past life", Lhuna's long list of innocents reminded me of my own doomed experiment in wolfishness those many many lives ago. That's all.

[Kath]

Sorry! Just found one.

Lhunardawen: 4
Anguirel: 1
Littlemanpoet: 2
Garin: 3
Aiwendil: 1
Boromir: 1
Eomer: 1

Woah! Lhuna? Be right back after I've looked at why on earth that would have come about.

[littlemanpoet]

The fact that Aiwendil rises LMP’s name so often and yet accuses him so little is making alarms sound all over the place. Well, thank you for that. I almost missed this. That would indeed be a very clever wolfish ploy.

[Formendacil]

Allow me to offer some patronising advice to those who are interested: Never get sick. And, while you're at it, don't stay in bed for twelve hours. Because if you do, that's a LOT of Werewolf to catch up on...

I wish I had time to reply to more stuff that was written today. Lot's of interesting tidbits...

Alas, but it is ten minutes to the deadline, and I cannot. Just a short list of my suspicions, then.

Quite Suspicious: Aiwendil is the only person who leaps out at me today as being truly suspicious. To be honest, it very probably derives from his solid, continual declarations of my guilt. For that reason, I'm willing to offer him the benefit of the doubt, but to push so hard, consistently, for someone's guilt coming from Aiwendil seems to suggest some sort of knowledge other than a simple innocent would have. With the True Seer gone, that makes him either one of Three Werewolves or the False Seer. The statistics seem to point towards him being a Werewolf.

Near-certain Innocents: Eomer, Garin, Nilp- although I'm going to look pretty foolish if Garin gets the noose and turns hairy on us.

As for the rest, the fall into the Unsure/Slightly Suspicious Category...

With five minutes left before the cutoff, I must vote:

++ Aiwendil

[Boromir88]

What I find strange is from the suspicions for a lot of the day and the seeming agreeance that tar-ancalime would be a likely suspect...ummm she has no votes? This I truly find odd, though not really sure what to make of it. But I got the feeling today that tar-ancalime would be more likely hanged then Garin....hmmm what to make of this...

Celuien, Aiwendil and Tar have voted for Garin....Something I will certainly look at tomorrow.

Well, thank you for that. I almost missed this. That would indeed be a very clever wolfish ploy.~lmp
You need to do more careful reading I said the same thing as Formendacil this very morning.

To avoid mass cross-posting at the end, I will cast my vote now...

++lmp

[Garin]

Near-certain Innocents: Eomer, Garin, Nilp- although I'm going to look pretty foolish if Garin gets the noose and turns hairy on us.

You need not worry Formendacil.

[littlemanpoet]

Time's running out. I've read through post #186 and scanned the rest to see how the votes are going (last post scanned was #213.

My main suspects are at this time Lhuna, Garin, and now Aiwendil. If you don't like my intuitive way, sorry.

Boromir, Morm, and Formy of dropped somewhat.

The rest of you seem either innocent or I don't know yet.

Gotta vote, and I want to survive. Therefore:

++ Lhunardawen

Lhuna because of her stooopid list.
Garin seems guilty because of his both ends against the middle way, which some of you write off as in charater; I gotta go by what I know.
Aiwendil does seem to be bringing attention to me while not personally attacking; a very clever ploy that I would not put past a Wolf Aiwendil.

There you have it. Slim evidence, maybe, but you gotta go by what you believe you can trust. :shrug: Sorry if I'm wrong.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Boromir and Garin.

[Kath]

Well her first post toDAy was a bit "I'm so great" but then she is playing a princess!

Then a perfectly reasonable explanation for her quietness so far as I can see.

List of far-fetched theories:
Anguirel-Glirdan association due to Anguirel defending Glirdan.
Farael being the Hunter - haven't looked any where near hard enough to figure that.
LMP, Anguirel, Kath, Celuien, Garin and tar-a suspicious - with reasons so ok.

Advises the False Seer to remain hidden - I agree.

I guess she is being a little flippant, but I'm not sure if that's her usual playing style. Or whether it's due to her role.

So really apart from people perhaps being a little sensitive about some of her comments and way she's behaving I don't see much to be suspicious about.

But, with only 2 minutes before the deadline (and that's by my clock which is never right) I do have to vote.

I don't want to tie the voting, and it won't help Lhuna unless the one I vote for accumulates an extra vote. But in the hope that happens:

++

No, I can't. I haven't been involved and I won't vote randomly. Sorry.

[littlemanpoet]

Well, thank you for that. I almost missed this. That would indeed be a very clever wolfish ploy.
You need to do more careful reading I said the same thing as Formendacil this very morning.Undoubtedly true. I'm having a hard time keeping up. Now to go back and read posts I only scanned for votes ... which I don't like doing but time was almost up.

[Shelob]

(The villagers are gathered in the square, they’ve been talking and arguing all day. For all that though no one has really lost their temper…yet…)

Saucepan Man: We’ve been talking all day, have we come to any conclusions?
Nilp: Yep, things still smell Fishy.
Glirdan: But nothing smells fishier than our dear Princess Lhuna.
Celuien: I don’t know, Garin’s smelling rather fishy himself.
Lhuna: Could you people find a new joke, I’m getting really sick of that one.
Eomer: Perhaps "Cod" will inspire them?
Boromir88: Come on people, do we have a majority?
Anguirel: (looking up from where he’s been tallying votes) We do, the majority goes to Lhuna. Looks like it’s time for us settle her account.
Lhuna: You too? Well fine, I’ve had enough of your bad puns and I don’t see why I should put up with it any longer.

(Lhuna goes to leave, she heads towards the river. The villagers watch her for a moment before heading after her. The scene switches from the central square to the river bank, Lhuna is nowhere in sight)

Nilp: (calling) Lhuna, where are you?
Dancing Spawn: (having spotted something in the river) Umm…
Formendacil: How now, sweet shepherd?
Dancing Spawn: One woe doth tread upon another's heel, So fast they follow; dear Lhuna’s drown'd.
Everyone Else: Drown'd! O, where?
Dancing Spawn: (pointing) You see that willow, growing aslant our brook? She must have tried to climb it, you can see where a branch broke…
Garin: But was she innocent? She still could have been a wolf…
Littlemanpoet: You think a werewolf would have fallen and drowned?
Mormegil: No, she was innocent…but it is strange that the one we’d chosen to die should suffer a fatal accident, there’s something strange about this village.
Tar-Ancalime: Fishy even.
Kath: I think I’ll have to agree with Lhuna on one thing though, there are too many bad puns surrounding this whole, hairy buisness

(The villagers disperse, after rescuing Lhuna’s corpse from the river of course. The valley darks, while the wolves and remaining Gifted prepare for another NIGHT of action.)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Nilpaurion Felagund
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Littlemanpoet
Kath
Garin
Anguirel
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2

NIGHT 3 has begun, you know the spiel.

[Shelob]

(ToDAY we begin in the village bank, where the villagers are desperately searching for ANGUIREL.)

Boromir88: Anguirel, can you hear us?
Littlemanpoet: Come on man, call out.
Dancing Spawn: I don’t think we’ll find him, the wolves did a good job whatever they did.
Eomer: Without even a trace of his body, we’ll never be able to bury him properly…
Aiwendil: Has anyone looked in the safes yet?
Garin: Could anyone get them open?

(The villagers go take a closer look at the safes.)

Kath: This one isn’t closed all the way, we might be able to pry it open.
Formendacil: No, it’s stuck on something.
Mormegil: We won’t be able to open it.
Farael: Maybe you people can’t, but I’ve got Chemicals, stand aside.

(After many failed attempts Farael does manage to open the safe. Within it they find Anguirel, stuffed in and contorted and certainly not alive.)

Glirdan: Looks like we’re back where we were.
Tar: Only short another innocent.

(They leave the bank and it’s unfortunate banker, and return to the village square for another DAY of trying to find the wolves)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Nilpaurion Felagund
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Littlemanpoet
Kath
Garin
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)—Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3

DAY 3 Begins, yadda yadda yadda...and I’d like to apologise for this death but I woke up at 4.30 and had to leave, like, now. So the whole thing was written no more than 20 minutes, meaning it's not what I planned and I'm not happy with it, but it does what it needs to so I'm not going to complain (anymore).

[littlemanpoet]

I have been a bad sport and my own worst enemy, haunted apparently by the ghosts of my ancestors, one of whom was falsely accused by a Hunter, another of whom was falsely played by a Fool then lynched by that same Fool and his stooge Hunter. But those are old ghosts and do not apply to this generation, so even though that baggage has trammeled me up until toDay in this village, it shall no more. I set it aside.

I have wronged all of you and I am sorry. Sorry for having been so prickly just because I was wrongly suspected; sorry for having decided that it would be fun to be an obnoxious, offensive name calling virtual orc by way of self-defense; sorry for having haughtily decided in advance that because I am innocent, I don't owe explanations to anyone. I know better now: had I explained myself sooner and better, I would not have needlessly distracted you from the real quarry.

I do not expect anyone to believe me toDay, for I realize that I have squandered any trust or patience previously afforded me. I don't expect you to change your minds about me because of these words; I'm not quite that much of a fool. Havine received three votes yesterDay, and having been the second choice for lynching by at least three more of you, I am resigned to my likely fate, and will from this point onward, endeavor to mend my ways and be a help to the village rather than an attention diverting hindrance. Maybe my contribution toDay will be useful after I'm gone.

Thank you.

p.s.: I am sorry if this only adds more confusion to you, for I imagine that some of you are thinking that LMP has hereby done a flip-flop, and is even less to be trusted. Think what you must. I am prepared for the worst.

[Boromir88]

I think I'll be more of an observer today, that's something I need to get back to instead of being narrow minded and going after one person...(ahem lmp) which I take you are being sincere and if you are a wolf I deserve what's coming to me for being schnookered.

[The Saucepan Man]

Ahem! Did anyone notice that Lhuna was lynched and Ang just died? Perhaps we ought to be looking into what we can learn from that rather than wallowing in self-pity or withdrawing from the village!

Pah!

Here's the voting record:

1. Glirdan for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-1)
2. Nilpaurion Felagund for Anguirel (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1)
3. Lhunardawen for littlemanpoet (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1)
4. Celuin for Garin (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-1)
5. Tar-ancalime for Garin (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2)
6. Farael for Aiwendil (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1)
7. Garin for Boromir88 (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1)
8. Eomer of the Rohirrim for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-2, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1)
9. Anguirel for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-3, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1)
10. The Saucepan Man for littlemanpoet (Lhunardawen-3, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1)
11. Dancing spawn of ungoliant for Eomer (Lhunardawen-3, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
12. Mormegil for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-4, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
13. Aiwendil for Garin (Lhunardawen-4, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-3, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
14. Formendacil for Aiwendil (Lhunardawen-4, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-3, Aiwendil-2, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
15. Boromir88 for littlemanpoet (Lhunardawen-4, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-3, Garin-3, Aiwendil-2, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
16. littlemanpoet for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-5, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-3, Garin-3, Aiwendil-2, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)

Did not vote: Kath

Back shortly.

[mormegil]

Voting from yesterday

Glirdan for Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
Nilp for Anguirel (Lhuna 1, Ang 1)
Celuien for Garin (Lhuna 1, Ang 1, Garin 1)
Tar-a for Garin (Lhuna 1, Ang 1, Garin 2)
Farael for Aiwendil (Lhuna 1, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1)
Garin for Boromir (Lhuna 1, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1)
Eomer for Lhuna (Lhuna 2, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1)
Anguirel for Lhuna (Lhuna 3, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1)
SpM for LMP (Lhuna 3, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1)
Spawn for Eomer (Lhuna 3, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1, Eomer 1)
Mormegil for Lhuna (Lhuna 4, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1, Eomer 1)
Aiwendil for Garin (Lhuna 4, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1, Eomer 1)
Formendacil for Aiwendil (Lhuna 4, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1, Eomer 1)
Boromir for LMP (Lhuna 4, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 2, Eomer 1)
LMP for Lhuna (Lhuna 5, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 2, Eomer 1)
Kath no vote (Lhuna 5, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 2, Eomer 1)

I don't have much time to analyze

I'm not sure what to make of Kath's vote. Noble and appropriate or an easy way out? I'm leaning towards noble and appropriate.

The Lhuna train looks interesting, though I am on it, it makes me wonder about Eomer mainly and to a lesser degree LMP.

About LMP I"m not sure what to make of him one minute I'm convinced he's guilty and the next I'm convinced he's innocent. :rolleyes:

Edit: Cross posted almost the same info with SpM...thought I could beat him to it.

[littlemanpoet]

... wallowing in self-pity ...I refuse to take umbrage at this slight. It is not self-pity; you misunderstand. It is remorse. There is a difference, rest assured.

[Kath]

I'm not sure what to make of Kath's vote. Noble and appropriate or an easy way out? I'm leaning towards noble and appropriate.
Thank you morm. I decided it would be better not to vote as I had only had time to disagree with the lynching of Lhuna, I had not had time to analyse everyone and make a real judgement. Any vote I had made at that moment would have been random and more than likely based on feelings rather than evidence.

ToDay however I do at last have some real time to spend in this village! Expect a rather lengthy post from me tomorrow (RL) when I've had an opportunity to go through everything as thoroughly as I'd like to.

And thanks to lmp as well. Past grievances and general dislikes can lead to a lot of tension in a village and make the whole thing less fun. I think what you said was genuine, so thank you.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, first of all, I cannot help but comment on littlemanpoet's strange behaviour this morning.

It is not self-pity; you misunderstand. It is remorse.Bit dramatic, isn't it? Seemingly you are trying to appeal to the mercy of the village.

p.s.: I am sorry if this only adds more confusion to you, for I imagine that some of you are thinking that LMP has hereby done a flip-flop, and is even less to be trusted. Think what you must. I am prepared for the worst.Quite so. My very thoughts, even before I reached your little PS. You want to be helpful do you? Somehow I doubt that you will be. Because I believe that you are a Wolf. I suspected as much yesterday, and now I am pretty much convinced. I think that you are trying a change of tack because your previous modus operandi was sending off the wrong signals and almost got you lynched.

When I looked back over your contributions overnight, I noticed some very interesting things. Like this for example:

I have found that werewolves find it difficult to put on the act of innocence, and their guilt can often be read between the lines of what they say when they "suspect" others.

Sure I'm suspicious. I like being suspicious. As long as I don't get lynched it keeps me in the game longer. So suspect me to your heart's content.You say that Wolves find it hard to put on an act of innocence, a statement which makes sense to me. And yet you seek to excuse your own seemingly suspicious behaviour. It's all just to try to stay in the game longer, you say. I think that, when you realised that you were coming under suspicion, you needed to think of an excuse to cover it.

There's more. A lot more, and I hope to come to it later today.

But before that, I think that it might be fruitful to consider why the Wolves killed Ang. He voiced few suspicions on Day 1, concentrating mainly on calling for Boro to be lynched. He was the first to vote for Boro, a vote which was generally not considered to be overly suspicious (although those which followed for Boro were). On Day 2, he maintained his suspicion of Boro, but then started looking at Lhuna and Nilp. He ended up voting for Lhuna who, as we know, was innocent. On Day 2, he was suspected by Lhuna and Nilp, who voted for him (Nilp, that is). Other than that, he does not seem to have come under much suspicion.

So, does that implicate Boro? Might it implicate Nilp? I am not so sure, because I remain fairly comfortable about both of them (although I don't like the sound of you sloping off to the sidelines Boro - your input is most certainly needed at this grave time). It could be an attempt to frame up one or both of them. Possibly an attempt to relieve the pressure on the others who voted for Boro on Day 1? Or it could be that Ang said something to alarm the Wolves. I will go and have a look back through his contributions.

I also intend looking into the Lhuna voters a bit more closely. Lmp was one of them and I think that he is the Wolf in that pack. There may be another one there, although I am not convinced as Lhuna did look rather suspicious to me. Worth a look nevertheless. It's probably worth looking at those who voted for Lhuna on Day 1 as well.

[Aiwendil]

Fellow villagers, I'm afraid we're not in great shape. With four innocents dead (including the Seer), I think that toDAY may be the DAY that makes or breaks the village. We need to get our act together, discuss things rationally, and, above all, lynch a wolf.

Despite the flak I took from some for offering questions as a way to prompt intelligent discussion on DAY 1, I will lay out the things I think we need to ponder toDAY.

First, was Lhuna's death an unfortunate accident or was it brought on by the wolves? I must admit that I had not been watching Lhuna as carefully as I perhaps should have. For myself, I'll have to go back and review her posts and the arguments against her. Of course, we should watch everyone who voted for Lhuna toDAY.

Second, why did the wolves kill Anguirel? I've looked fairly quickly back over his posts and I see no hints of Giftedness. I also don't see any obvious frame-up scheme, especially since Ang had voted for Lhuna. To be honest, the choice confuses me a bit, for surely Ang would have come under suspicion toDAY for his vote, had he not been killed.

I expect that LMP will come under close scrutiny toDAY. He's certainly one of my top suspects. His behaviour so far has been somewhat slippery. Now, I don't hold it against someone that he changes his mind. It's often the mark of considered, rational thought. But LMP seems to be changing his mind without reason. On DAY 1, he utters not one word against Boromir until the very end of the DAY, when he becomes fervently in favour of lynching him. On DAY 2, he explains that, though he did not tell us, he actually suspected Boromir before Ang did. Early on DAY 2, his suspects are Boromir, Mormegil, and Formendacil (see post 142). Note that at this point Lhuna is "maybe innocent" and I am "probably innocent". In post 208 he pivots, mentioning Lhuna as a suspect. And then suddenly in post 216, his chief suspects are Lhuna, Garin, and me. He's almost become the quantum villager: it's impossible to know both his suspicions and the speed at which those suspicions are changing at the same time.

Again, changing one's opinions is not in itself suspicious. And if LMP offered what seem to me to be rational explanations for these changes of opinion, I would probably not think them much cause for concern. But LMP does not offer much in that department. Rather, he justifies his opinions by saying that he is going with his gut and playing intuitively. Now if that isn't a great excuse for a wolf to ride the ever-changing currents of public opinion, I don't know what is.

So the big question in my mind toDAY is whether LMP is guilty. If he's a wolf, lynching him toDAY would be a major victory, as he's a cunning fellow. I also need to review my two top suspects from yesterDAY, Formendacil and Garin.

One other point that occurs to me: there is one villager who has so far been more or less exempt from suspicion. I speak of The Saucepan Man. Of course, he's seemed helpful. That's as one would expect. I suppose this is a question that inevitably comes up at about this point in the game, but why is he still alive? I think it would be wise to review his posts carefully.

[Garin]

Littlemanpoet's quick post after the poor Anguirel's death seems almost too egregious.

Could a wolf be so bold as to appear so apologetic and hence so guilty? He offers no explanation, just remorse. Yes, this could be a clumsy lupine ploy.

Which brings us to the feud between LmP and Boromir... I am not convinced that they are at odds with eachother. This again could be some wolvish tactic.

I was never was convinced at Lhuna's guilt, I mentioned voting for her on the first day to simply even up the votes but was seriously cross-posted. Nonetheless, I have voted for no proven innocents and so I willl post my personal list of fools...

Celuin
Tar-ancalime
Aiwendil

One of you is a wolf. I can nearly envision those night-time PMs. "Let's not kill Garin because he will manage to get himself lynched."

I think that, despite the early success of taking away our blessed True Seer, this will be a very quick game and the werewolves will soon be defeated.

[Garin]

Second, why did the wolves kill Anguirel? I've looked fairly quickly back over his posts and I see no hints of Giftedness. I also don't see any obvious frame-up scheme, especially since Ang had voted for Lhuna. To be honest, the choice confuses me a bit, for surely Ang would have come under suspicion toDAY for his vote, had he not been killed.

It is obvious that Boromir is a werewolf. This was a safe kill for them. Ang votes for one of them on day one but votes for an innocent on day two.

Also note that Boromir eased the pressure off of me on day two. If I had been lynched he could have vindicated himself.

I'm going to be consistent and start the voting....

++Boromir

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I didn't get very much from my review of Ang's contributions. I did notice one thing, though. It's not much, but it might provide some assistance.

He mildly defended Glirdan (#45) and Celuin (#52) early on in Day 1 and Garin on Day 2 (#173). Might the Wolves have thought that he was our Hunter or our Ranger, defending a fellow Gifted? If so, it would speak in favour of one or perhaps more of those three.

So the big question in my mind toDAY is whether LMP is guilty.I'm pretty sure that he is.

Which brings us to the feud between LmP and Boromir... I am not convinced that they are at odds with eachother. This again could be some wolvish tactic.I have not discounted that possibility. Lmp knew at the time that he voted for Boro that Boro was not going to be lynched. It is possible that he was casting a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. The problem is that I can see very little else to concern me about Boro. I think it more likely that lmp was casting a "safe throwaway" vote. One which would not result in the lynching of an innocent and thereby attract suspicion.

One other point that occurs to me: there is one villager who has so far been more or less exempt from suspicion. I speak of The Saucepan Man. Of course, he's seemed helpful. That's as one would expect. I suppose this is a question that inevitably comes up at about this point in the game, but why is he still alive? I think it would be wise to review his posts carefully.Here we go. I wondered when this would come up. Indeed, I could pretty much have guaranteed that it would become an issue if I made it to Day 3 without getting lynched or mauled. Obviously, I cannot say why the Wolves have chosen not to kill me. But I could ask the same question about a number of other villagers - including you, Master Cook. Perhaps they thought that Ang was Gifted. Or perhaps it's because some of my reasoning has been awry. I was very suspicious of Lhuna, and I was clearly wrong in that. My suspicions of Ang were growing yesterday. Perhaps there is a Wolf among those that I was considering likely to be innocent. I don't know. But feel free to review my contributions as closely as you like. I have nothing to hide.

Now, I'm off to look at the Lhuna voters, if you don't mind.

[Garin]

Obviously, I cannot say why the Wolves have chosen not to kill me.

Sauce, i can say that it is mostly out of respect and also that you are destined to be a wolf.
(past life speaking)

So, are you a wolf?

[Formendacil]

Terribly sorry if this is too brief or muddled... but it seems I've got strep throat, and my brain isn't working quite as efficiently as normal...

I can't make heads or tails of what LMP is saying today... I'll have to take the word of the village as authoritative in that he's a Werewolf...

Or not...

Ugh... Go ahead and lynch me. My brain hurts.

[tar-ancalime]

from Aiwendil, regarding lmp: He's almost become the quantum villager: it's impossible to know both his suspicions and the speed at which those suspicions are changing at the same time.

I spit out my coffee laughing when I read this!

But really, I think that lmp's posts today are much more troublesome than the windmill-tilting he's been doing for the past two days. They're finessed and careful in a way that he generally isn't. Unless this is just another quick change, soon to be forgotten.

I think we'll have to wait and see what the poet does for the rest of the day--he looks like an easy target now, but how will he look in 20 hours?

I don't think Anguirel's death points at anyone. I think that's the whole idea--the wolves have killed a smart, vocal villager (and there are plenty of both in this village) without leaving a real trail, because he wasn't embroiled in any of the strong dialogues of accusation and defense that have sprung up:

Farael and Aiwendil

Boromir88 and lmp (except that lmp changed his mind and voted for Lhuna....sigh)

dancing spawn and Eomer (from late in the day yesterday)

Anguirel's death doesn't disrupt any of these conversations, any or all of which might be smoke and mirrors. That's why the wolves killed him.

[Garin]

Fare thee well Form... I understand taking ill and I'm inclined to trust you. Wolves tend to be involved no matter what happens upon them.

I have some nutritious bread if you are so inclined. I suggest you vote quite hastily if you are in such an illness.

Vote now.

[Kath]

Why should he vote now Garin? That seems very rushed. He may be ill but that's not to say he won't come back later. Early votes are all very well and good if you're certain but Form is obviously not. And opinions may change throughout the Day depending on what has been said.

I just don't think making a snap decision based on illness is of any use.

[tar-ancalime]

I'm with Kath, Garin. Unless Formendacil has a truly wicked strain of strep, it sounds like a great excuse to hole up with a vast pot of tea, a quilt, and our village. Give the man a chance!

Not that I'm without sympathy--I know how wretched it can make you feel, especially at the beginning. It just seems to me that to demand an immediate vote is taking things a little too far.

[Garin]

Kath
The early votes are the most condemnable and I happened to make the first. I guess I wouldn't mind company.

Who knows?

I need to head out now.

I am confident with mine.

[Garin]

know how wretched it can make you feel, especially at the beginning. It just seems to me that to demand an immediate vote is taking things a little too far.

This is why I am constantly seen as a wolf. I was trying to show sympathy and also give advice. If our boy is an innocent- please vote- and then please get better. The last thing he needs to worry about is this game. Strep hurts and fevers hurt the brain.

[The Saucepan Man]

Sauce, i can say that it is mostly out of respect and also that you are destined to be a wolf.
(past life speaking)

So, are you a wolf?Actually, I rather think that I am ever destined to be an ordinary villager. :rolleyes:

No. I am not a Wolf.

I just don't think making a snap decision based on illness is of any use.I agree. In fact, unless one is forced into them, I don't think that snap decisions, and especially snap votes, are particularly helpful at all. I am fairly sure that elempi is a Wolf. It is likely that my vote will go to him today. But I cannot be absolutely certain about him, and I am not going to vote until I have to.

Garin's early vote for Boro, with Boro having said very little and many villagers not having even spoken today, is of some concern. I did have him marked down as one of my probable innocents, but I may have to reevaluate that.

[Boromir88]

So, does that implicate Boro? Might it implicate Nilp? I am not so sure, because I remain fairly comfortable about both of them (although I don't like the sound of you sloping off to the sidelines Boro - your input is most certainly needed at this grave time).
I didn't mean it as in I won't be posting and doing what I can. It is my duty as magistrate.

Sauce, if you find lmp pulling a wolfish blind over our eyes I will put my trust in you. But, being able to know where lmp is coming from I'm inclined to believe he is telling the truth. Of course, I would not put it pas lmp trying to trick us...but falling under heavy suspicion, when you know you are innocent, but everyone is attacking you...you just have the feeling of giving it up and not caring what happens to you. You just get the, ok go ahead and lynch me, you will all see your flawed ways when I'm innocent...I hope you get what I'm trying to say. Coming from lmp's situation before, you just get a sense of giving it up. So, that's I now find it hard to pull the platform from under him. It could very well be a clever wolvish trick, one I would not put past him of doing, but I certainly understand where he is coming from.

Which brings us to the feud between LmP and Boromir... I am not convinced that they are at odds with eachother. This again could be some wolvish tactic.
Wolves have two allies. I have one ally...myself, so to put it bluntly you're wrong.
Also note that Boromir eased the pressure off of me on day two. If I had been lynched he could have vindicated himself.
Umm yeah if I have no reason to be suspicious of you then I typically don't suspect you. I suspected you on Day 1 due to your vote for me which seemed you pretty much just going with whatever the popular belief was at the time...People started suspecting me, you suspected me, people started suspecting lhuna, you suspected lhuna. You said lhuna was more suspicious, then say I was more suspicious. That was my reason I suspected you. But, I admitted, and was told by others, that you one could be an innocent that likes to put your trust in other people, or you could be a bandwagonning wolf that is trying to go with the flow, I believe the former. I also found it odd that you received 3 votes yesterday when I surely thought that it would be tar-ancalime who would be facing death, which I am fully planning to be looking into.

Who I am suspicious of right now...

Aiwendil: Farael has made some intriguing posts and I keep on coming back to the same thing I've noticed and others have noticed...Aiwendil's been cleverly getting us to look at lmp, without making a full commitment saying he's a wolf.

Spawn and Eomer: When the game progresses and innocents are dying I suspect those that take a semi-vocal/leader role. You know they just seem so insightful, and willing to help, it's hard to suspect them, but it's hard not to when it's innocents getting lynched instead of wolves.

The quiet ones are also falling into my suspiciouns. Glirdan, Kath, and Formendacil, anytime we start getting to where the quiet ones slip out of discussion and aren't mentioned I get worried. There is likely a wolf that is low key and is sort of cast-aside/forgotten about.

The no-vote of Kath I have a hard time figuring out too. Yes, I know she wasn't around for a lot of the day, and she didn't want to make a random vote (perhaps she's got a different philosophy then me, but I always think everyone should vote).

It looks wolfish because:
1. By staying out of voting she doesn't get her hands dirty in the lynching of an innocent.

It looks innocent because:

1. Lhuna's fate was already sealed, so her vote wouldn't hold any difference in the outcome.

2. Wanting to make a logical vote, and not pull a name out of the air and vote, because of her absense.

So if for my list right now:
Aiwendil
Spawn
Eomer
Kath

[The Saucepan Man]

Day 1 Lhuna voters (in order)

The Saucepan Man
Eomer of the Rohirrim
dancing spawn of ungoliant

Well, I was wrong about Lhuna obviously. But she did look the most likely to be a Wolf to me at the time.

Eomer drew her level on 2 votes with Gil-Galad, Glirdan and Boro. An understandable vote, perhaps, given that it was sensible to keep the voting tight, so as to make it difficult for the Wolves. But it could also have been a Wolfish attempt to put four innocents (assuming Glirdan and Boro are innocent) ahead in the voting.

Dancing spawn put her on 3 votes, ahead of Boro, Glirdan and tar-ancalime (on 2 votes each), at a time when Gil was on 4 votes. Not sure what that tells us, but it could again have been aimed at promoting innocents as the main candidates for lynching.

Day 2 Lhuna voters (in order)

Glirdan
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Anguirel
mormegil
littlemanpoet

I still think Glirdan's early first vote for Lhuna on Day 2 looks un-Wolfish. Lhuna attracted the third highest number of votes on Day 1 and was therefore a possible contender for lynching on Day 2 at the time Glirdan voted for her. An early vote can attract suspicion. An early vote for someone who is later lynched and proved innocent moreso. Conversely, therefore, I think that Glirdan's vote speaks in his favour.

Eomer is the only villager to have voted twice for Lhuna and one of only three villagers to have voted twice for known innocents (Glirdan and morm are the others). So that immediately makes him look suspicious to me. Which makes me wonder whether a Wolf would have voted so riskily two Days running. Then again, an Eomer-Wolf would surely be a bold Wolf. Dancing spawn brought up some good points concerning Eomer yesterday and I think that it may be worth looking back over his posts and spawn's analysis of him.

Anguirel was innocent although his vote, putting Lhuna ahead as it did, would otherwise have looked suspicious today.

Now mormegil, like Eomer, has voted twice for known innocents and his vote for Lhuna put her 2 votes ahead of anyone else. So that all makes him look quite suspicious. However, there's not much else to go on at the moment on morm and I still have the feeling that, if lmp is a Wolf, morm is probably innocent.

Littlemanpoet's vote was the one that sealed Lhuna's fate. Or was it? No, it wasn't. He voted last, at a time when Lhuna was on 4 votes and he was on 3. So Lhuna was already facing the gallows when he voted. Now, if lmp is a Wolf, why would he vote for an innocent who was guaranteed to be lynched? Why not place a "safe" vote elsewhere, or even a Wolf-on-Wolf vote?

Gotta vote, and I want to survive.He claimed that he was voting to save himself. When in fact he wasn't at all, as he surely would have known (even if he cross-posted with Boro, who voted for him). A "safe" vote at that stage might have looked suspicious, but his vote for Lhuna allows him to claim that he was forced into it (or, at least, that he thought he was).

So lmp remains my prime suspect. But, if there were two Wolves among the Lhuna votes, I have a feeling that Eomer might fit the bill.

[The Saucepan Man]

But, being able to know where lmp is coming from I'm inclined to believe he is telling the truth. Your understanding does you credit. But I have a feeling that you are having a Woolly Wolfskin pulled over your eyes. Call me a cynic, but lmp's lament just seems far too self-serving and convenient to me, at a time when he looked likely to come under suspicion. And I was struck by his wallowing (whether in self-pity or remorse) when, if he is innocent, his time here would be better served actually trying to find a Wolf. Sorry, but I just don't buy it.

I realise that, in my analysis of lmp's vote for Lhuna, I did not take account of the fact that Kath could yet have voted. however, it would have made no difference. Lhuna's fate was sealed by the time lmp voted for her.

Aiwendil: Farael has made some intriguing posts and I keep on coming back to the same thing I've noticed and others have noticed...Aiwendil's been cleverly getting us to look at lmp, without making a full commitment saying he's a wolf.Yes, I thought so too. So I took the liberty of looking back over Aiwendil's contributions over Days 1 and 2. And I can really see nothing in them to concern me. He has seemed sensible and willing to help find these fiends throughout. Which might, I suppose, be regarded as suspicous in itself. But I don't think that it's nearly enough to go on. There are others looking far more suspicious at the moment, to my mind. Farael's case, as far as I can see, boils down to an observation that Aiwendil has continually put forward ideas (whether strategies or suspects) and then backed off from them. I don't think that this fully characterises Aiwendil's contribution but, to the extent that there is any merit in it, I think that is Aiwendil's way - a tendency to over-analyse and see both sides of an argument. I can sympathise because I sometimes have the same problem. As for his supposed "flip-flopping" on lmp, given that I think that lmp is a Wolf I don't see any force in this at all. If they are fellow Wolves, Aiwendil has not exactly been doing his companion many favours. :D

And while Farael's posts may be intriguing as far as Aiwendil is concerned, they have not exactly been helpful in many other respects. He has focussed almost entirely on one villager. There are (currently) 13 other villagers, and three Wolves on the loose. It seems to me that he would better serve the village by looking for all of them, not just the one that he thinks he has found.

Indeed, the more I think about it, the more I think that it would be a fairly sensible Wolfish tactic to concentrate on one target, for that way he does not risk incriminating his Wolfish colleagues and avoids incriminating himself when innocents are lynched. His single-minded pursuit of Aiwendil has enabled him to avoid much suspicion to date and seemingly rather given him a cloak of innocence. Of course, he will look bad if Aiwendil is lynched and found to be innocent, but perhaps it is intended that he will then serve as a sacrifice to cover his fellows.

Now, I need to take a look at Eomer. I am not going to be around much tomorrow, so I want to collect my thoughts tonight as much as I can.

[tar-ancalime]

And while Farael's posts may be intriguing as far as Aiwendil is concerned, they have not exactly been helpful in many other respects. He has focussed almost entirely on one villager. There are (currently) 13 other villagers, and three Wolves on the loose. It seems to me that he would better serve the village by looking for all of them, not just the one that he thinks he has found.

All right, watch me pull an lmp:

That's what I've thought since Day 1. (Really! What, you don't believe me?
:D )

Farael's accusations are either based on a refusal to understand Aiwendil's sometimes subtle reasoning and willingness to consider several viewpoints and shades of gray (which style, as I have found to my own detriment, can be taken as a refusal to commit to one line of thinking), or they are totally unfounded. Nothing about Aiwendil's posts has made me think "Wolf!"

This is not to say, though, that I want to write off Aiwendil as innocent. He has me stymied; but Farael's crusade against him reflects much more poorly on the accuser than on the accused.

Now, to dancing spawn. Remember Day 1? When I thought that long post was a little suspicious? I backed off, both because of her calm response and because it didn't bother anyone else. But now? Now? I'm starting to look back at it. She's successfully set up a little feud with Eomer, which led Boromir to post this:

Spawn and Eomer: When the game progresses and innocents are dying I suspect those that take a semi-vocal/leader role. You know they just seem so insightful, and willing to help, it's hard to suspect them, but it's hard not to when it's innocents getting lynched instead of wolves.

If you ask me, they both look a little squidgy in their "argument," which strikes me as a little contrived.

I also don't want to overlook mormegil. He's been flying under the radar for the entire game. I have nothing more concrete than that, but he's making me nervous.

I"m not ready to let up on Garin yet, either--he could easily be hiding behind his personality, hoping to slide by on "Oh, he's just being Garin."

Where does this leave me? To be honest I'm at a loss. I haven't got any likely innocents at all--perhaps I'm becoming a little paranoid. I'm going to wait and see, while watching Farael, Eomer, and spawn very carefully. I'm going to think hard about lmp's sacrificial stance today (sacrificial la--er, wolf?) I'm going to continue to suspect Garin.

And all of this while trying hard not to forget the rest of the village--as I said, I haven't seen anyhting that screams "innocent."

[littlemanpoet]

One other point that occurs to me: there is one villager who has so far been more or less exempt from suspicion. I speak of The Saucepan Man. Of course, he's seemed helpful. That's as one would expect. I suppose this is a question that inevitably comes up at about this point in the game, but why is he still alive? I think it would be wise to review his posts carefully.

Because even though he's most likely innocent, he's doing the werewolves' job for them and gunning hard for an innocent (I have been no help in this regard), thus taking attention away from them.

[Farael]

Indeed, the more I think about it, the more I think that it would be a fairly sensible Wolfish tactic to concentrate on one target, for that way he does not risk incriminating his Wolfish colleagues and avoids incriminating himself when innocents are lynched. His single-minded pursuit of Aiwendil has enabled him to avoid much suspicion to date and seemingly rather given him a cloak of innocence. Of course, he will look bad if Aiwendil is lynched and found to be innocent, but perhaps it is intended that he will then serve as a sacrifice to cover his fellows.

Alright, I'll come clean now... no, I'm not a wolf by a long shot, but on Day 1 I was just having fun. I chose the villager who looked most suspicious to my eyes and made a case against him. The problem is, as I went through my 'case' I started finding some things that made me feel uneasy. On Day 2, I was rather convinced that there's something fishy with Aiwendil, but toDay I have a different idea.

I have exposed my doubts on the Aiwendil-LMP situation. Aiwendil is quick to raise some suspicions and even quicker to exonerate him... which has me thinking is likely a well thought-out wolfish plan. What I find most intriguing is that he actually has some suspects (other than LMP) from which he demands answers... and yet any comments from LMP seem to erase his thoughts. Of course, we could be dealing with a very empathic innocent villager, but I think I have a plan to put forward

It is still early and we are many innocents. Now is the time to take on risks, because the more we wait, the more difficult and costly it will be should we make a mistake. Now, I assume we all agree that LMP's behaviour has been far from easy to gauge. He will continue to be a distraction as days go on. I will leave it to others who have been paying closer attention to LMP to dig up information against him, if they feel like it, as I don't have time to do it myself right now. But given that my suspicions of Aiwendil are based mostly on his 'relationship' with LMP, today I would be in favour of lynching LMP. That would give me some information on Aiwendil and worst case scenario, we get rid of the most controversial villager so far.

Yet I'm not saying let's condemn LMP just yet, I would appreciate it if someone (other than me) analised his behaviour. I dont have time to do it right now and I doubit I will have time tomorrow

I realize you could think this as a response on those criticizing me for going after Aiwendil only but.... if you think about it, this would be an excelent way of digging up even more information about Aiwendil ;)

[tar-ancalime]

from Farael:

today I would be in favour of lynching LMP. That would give me some information on Aiwendil and worst case scenario, we get rid of the most controversial villager so far.

If it's information on Aiwendil you want, then it's Aiwendil you should vote for. It's an unfortunate fact of the game that the only accurate information comes from death.

But the second half of your statement is, while a little cold-blooded, intriguing. Get rid of those people who are muddying things. Back on Day 1 lmp told me that too much clarity could only help the wolves to hide. I couldn't disagree with this more. I think that smokescreens and side arguments are perfect wolf hiding places. You're absolutely right that if we're going to take any risks (i.e. lynch someone we're not sure is a wolf), it's got to be today. I think the only defensible reason for doing something like this is to eliminate someone who's not contributing, who's generating confusion, or who seems to be obscuring things deliberately. Someone who's making it more difficult to find the wolves. The test wouldn't be "wolvish/non-wolvish;" it would be "useful/non-useful." I'm not sure I like this idea (is it yours or mine at this point?) enough to run with it all Day, still less if I like it enough to try to organize a lynching around it, but I'd like to put it out there:

Is there anyone whose absence would make our job easier, regardless of whether or not they turn out to be innocent?

[littlemanpoet]

It is still early and we are many innocents. Now is the time to take on risks, because the more we wait, the more difficult and costly it will be should we make a mistake. Now, I assume we all agree that LMP's behaviour has been far from easy to gauge. He will continue to be a distraction as days go on. I will leave it to others who have been paying closer attention to LMP to dig up information against him, if they feel like it, as I don't have time to do it myself right now. But given that my suspicions of Aiwendil are based mostly on his 'relationship' with LMP, today I would be in favour of lynching LMP. That would give me some information on Aiwendil and worst case scenario, we get rid of the most controversial villager so far.This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.

[Farael]

This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.
LMP, you are smart... I'll concede that. What ever happens, you have earned my respect. Still, I think your death will benefit us all more than your life. I apologise if you are an Ordo and I might be in trouble if you happen to be the Hunter, but I still think you have got to go.

tar-ancalime,
You started from my idea and moved a little in your own direction. Not that there is anything wrong with that. I don't think we should make it a policy to go after the useless folk, specially because as I argued before, wolves would just have to appear useful and they'd save their foul skins. Yet this time I think that LMP's death would be more useful than his life. If anything, he is mudding up the water, while it's almost heart-breaking to see him post the way he has, and almost giving up his own life for the sake of the village... I don't buy it. He might be a villager resigned to his fate(Eru knows it has happened to.... my soul in other incarnations) but his behaviour is very troublesome. From what I hear, he has the potential to be a very good contributor to the village and so far, he has only created controversy. I'm sorry LMP, but your death will clear the waters some

And Tar-ancalime, I can't get Aiwendil lynched today, I haven't gained enough support... that's why I'm trying other tactics. Sort of like politics if you think about it. I can't get away with what I want so I'll compromise, support other ideologies if in turn it will help me gain support for mine. And if we find LMP to be one of those fiends, who will look at me in the eye and say Aiwendil is not?

[The Saucepan Man]

I thought that dancing spawn had made some fine points about Eomer, and I was right. I addressed Eomer's votes above. Here's what else struck me on looking through his contributions.

I believe (and please debate this with me) that on Day One, wolves are going to be mostly timid: not too keen on offering big ideas, convoluted strategies, or hardline accusations.I'm not sure that I like the suggestion that Wolves will act in a particular way, as it risks narrowing the scope of our search for them too much. I think it was Anguirel who said that the Wolves will play to their strengths and act accordingly, and I rather agree with our poor deceased banker. Having said, that, Eomer did not offer any big ideas, convoluted strategies or hardline accusations himself on Day 1, so (as dancing spawn pointed out) he fits his own pattern. A bluff?

I suppose that at least one and probably more are going to be extremely 'friendly', if you understand meThe same point applies, I think.

Saucepan Man, you have also commented on tar's vote. Do you think there could possibly be unity between tar and dancing spawn, and that they tried to insert a little bit of early animosity between them?I don't think I ever responded to this. Well, since you ask, it's possible, given that they have both voted for you on alternate days but I don't see anything stronger than that. I'm still viewing tar as an unlikely Wolf because of Holby's Day 1 vote and dancing spawn has done nothing to arouse my suspicion.

But why did you address that question specifically to me? Spawn noted that it seemed odd, and I am inclined to agree.

I'm not accusing you Morm; I just find the post to be rather strange and would appreciate an explanation.Eomer does not seem too keen on making accusations. Merely raising suspicions, without really pressing them home. He does the same thing with Formendacil in #78: "It could be nothing, but ...", and again on Day 2, when he calls Form "tricksy" then appears to back off and then reconsiders (#171).

To be fair, he does accuse Farael (#178). And, while I agree with what he says, Farael was a fairly safe target, having largely been deemed innocent for his attack on Aiwendil.

When spawn makes her case (#190), Eomer responds rather defensively (#193), pointing out the ways in which he claims to have helped the village. In fact, he has offered very little in the way of substance so far. He also tries to defuse her argument by drawing a difference between "suspicion" and "accusation", and later claims that he has suspected people (#200). Actually, Eomer, I would say that you have raised suspicions without really driving them home.

All in all, Eomer is certainly beginning to look suspicious in my mind. And now tar-ancalime is seeing collusion between spawn and Eomer. :eek: Hmm, I'll have to think about that. But tomorrow. Right now, I'm whacked.

PS I agree, Farael, that lynching lmp could be quite revealing. Quite possibly about Aiwendil, but also about mormegil, Boro (who has backed off from him today - I'm not discounting that possible Wolf-on-Wolf vote), and now quite possibly you too. I have already gone back over his posts myself and he looks pretty suspicious to me, but I don't have any time now to do a full analysis. I might have a chance tomorrow, but I can't promise anything. Or perhaps, given that I might otherwise be accused of trying to "influence" the village ( :rolleyes: ), people should look back themselves and make up their own minds.