Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Celuien]

Afterthought: Sleepy as an Orc fits for those who want to believe that Jenny really meant it when she said the last Orcs had two word names...

[Diamond18]

The Short and Tragic Life of One Strangely Named Elf Who Was Too Smart for Her Own Good
Or, an Analysis of Spawn's Posts

I'm going to approach Spawn's posts with the assumption that the Orcs thought she was the Shaman, and that something in these posts made them extremely uneasy. There are alternative modes of thought, such as that the Orcs want us to analyize her posts with the mindset that they thought she was the Shaman. But I can only handle so many theories knocking about in my head at once.

Spawn's posts:

#31 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=460585&postcount=31) - #34 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=460616&postcount=34) - #44 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=460638&postcount=44) - #140 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=460990&postcount=140) - #158 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=461049&postcount=158) - #166 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=461084&postcount=166)

In her first post, Spawn puts forth a very sensible argument that the dreamers should opt for sound arguments rather than obscure hinting. Any ordo could do this.

In her second post, Spawn names some names -- Diamond, Roa, Findëasëa, Sleepy Ranger The first two, she seems suspicious of. She brings up Findëasëa's newness and seems ready to be forgiving of it. To Sleepy she makes a vague comment that is mostly a reply. This makes Diamond and Roa seem the most suspicious in her view. Roa is the one she spends most time on.

In her third post, Spawn votes for Roa.

Result: Spawn's Day 1 posts cast the most suspicion on Roa.

On to Day 2:

Even if she was the Shaman, she would not have any special knowledge because her dream would have gone to Zali. But it's still worth taking a look at what she said.

In her fourth post, Spawn explains her reasons for the previous Day's posts. Knowing she was an Ordo, we can pretty much take her at her word when she said she was just posting things that had caught her attention. Making, in other words, sound arguments. But maybe you're an Orc reading this and think, "She's the Shaman and she dreamed of Roa and she knows Roa is an Orc."

First post, she goes over more names -- Azaelia, Findëasëa, Grendelien, Naria, Kitanna, and Legolas. She doesn't seem very suspicious of any of these people.

Third post, votes for Nogrod. She doesn't want to put Diamond in the lead for lynching. She doesn't mention Roa again.

Result: Day 2 eases some suspicion on Roa, because if you're thinking Spawn's the Shaman and knows Roa's dirty little secret, wouldn't you think she'd continue to go after Roa? Her vote for Nogrod would have to be based on her face value reasoning, because as the Shaman she wouldn't have gotten her own dream. So why would she abandone the guilty Roa and go after someone she couldn't know about? Maybe, as an Orc, you just assume that she's trying to protect herself and not seem too "Shamanlike" by continuing to go after Roa based on logic that has been called into question by Nogrod.

The combined Days posting makes me suspicious of Roa, depending on what the Orcs are thinking. It's entirely possible they saw how suspicious it would make Roa if they killed Spawn. On the same token, isn't it kind of stupid to kill someone who has boldly accused you? Roa's not stupid. And what does all this say about Nogrod? He seemed highly suspicious of Spawn's reasons for voting Roa. Would an Orc, worried about his fellow Orc being in the spotlight, seek to force her accuser into admitting being the Shaman? That seems unwise. Because you'd get your fellow Orc killed, even if you did then confirm who the Shaman was. Wouldn't it be more wise to carefully avoid addressing Spawn's comments in hopes that no one really notices ?

Okay, that's it for now. I'm disinclined to vote for Roa. I'm not sure what to think of Nogrod. I am going to look at Jenny's posts.

[Caranlondien]

Jenny:

DAY ONE

#13: Agrees with Celuien that dreamers should not reveal their dreams immediately. Jokingly accuses Dancing Spawn, Roa, Sleepy, and Diamond

#27: Says she'll be in and out today. Tells village to quit obsessing over dreams. Says that revealing dreams helps the orcs narrow down who the Seer is, and thus Nogrod's fierce support for the plan makes her nervous.

#47: Lists those she finds suspicious: Nogrod, because she thinks he's supporting a bad idea; Diamond for "general hyperness"; and Sleepy for random vote.

#52: Votes for Diamond, for lack of substance.

DAY TWO

#108: Rejoices we are all still here, but says she almost wishes we knew who the "wolves" had gone after (hmm, wonder why she'd wish that :D ). Says she awaits Celuien's analysis with interest.

#121: Tells Diamond there is a big difference between volume and substance.

#136: Tries to explain away Diamond's suspicions of her by saying that she didn't object to a discussion about dreams, but did object to spending the whole day on them. Says she still finds Diamond pretty suspicious.

#157: Tells Nogrod she's suspicious of him. Says she thinks Dancing Spawn is innocent (noting most of the village is, too - perhaps trying to go along with the majority?).

By the time she made her next post, Jenny knew she was going to die. I have to assume that from this point on, she's doing her best to confuse us, and she's done a heck of a job...

#219: Implies Zali is another wereorc. Says both remaining orcs have more than one word in their name and are "sneaky sneaky". Implies one of the orcs is male, and another is experienced in the role. Tells the orcs not to kill the dreamer, but rather someone like Spawn, Roa, Nogrod, or Diamond.
Votes for Grendelien, for "the joyful friendship we've been developing".

#222: Says Findeasea is a wolf.

#223: Says Naria is an orc.

#227: Sarcastically wishes Sleepy good luck in analyzing her posts.

#229: Says Naria really is an orc.

Summary: In her posts before the revelation that ensured her death, Jenny mostly talks about suspicions of Diamond. She initially suspects Dancing Spawn, but then (sensing the village's general opinion, I think) backs off and decides Spawn is innocent. She also mentions Roa, Sleepy, and Nogrod jokingly, and follows up suspicions on the latter two. She mentions Celuien (although only to say she eagerly awaits her analysis).

In her posts after it became clear she would die, she tells the other orcs to kill Spawn, Roa, Nogrod, or Diamond. She also essentially asserts six things about the identities of the orcs:

1) Zali is an orc.
2) Both remaining orcs have more than one word in their name.
3) One of the orcs is male and another is experienced in the role.
4) Grendelien is an orc.
5) Findeasea is an orc.
6) Naria is an orc. (And she says this twice.)

Clearly, they can't all be true. Possibly, none of them is true. But, I suspect, at least one of them is true. Unfortunately... I have no idea which one(s).

EDIT: Cross-posted with a bunch of people...

[Nogrod]

I have smoked a couple of cigarettes thinking about this - as I couldn't get sleep - and now Celuien's posts really made up my mind. We have non-retractable votes, and I know, some of you might vote before I get back online after some sleep.

So, I'll follow my principles, I've stated - and discussed earlier, and go on to reveal a dream.

Sleepy is not an orc.

The things I have been wondering before Celuien's posts, have been:

- When should the dream be revealed? That was decided by the post of Celuien and my need of sleep: there could be some serious voting before I come back, and we can't afford an innocent lynch - if we can avoid it. This lessens the scope for our targets by one.

- Could the revealment really be helpful or not? Now I say yes, because the orcs have lots to think about: they missed the seer by going after Spawn two nights in a row, if so, then they can't be sure about Zali's rangership either, and now they will be given Sleepy's known innocence. There are some nuts to crack for you monsters! What to do? Yes, what to do? Chew that!

- Should I hide my knowledge? Well, I have been such a loudmouth, that I have a constant fear of death every night, that I just can't count on my waking up at each game morning. If I died the next night, my dream would have been wasted, and with these suspicions stated by Celuien - and partly by his own behaviour the first day - Sleepy would have been lynched one day, quite soon - and that would have been just one more innocent lynch.

So here we go. Carpe diem Sleepy! Show that you can be of help! I know, I'm putting you to a harms way now, but that's just to make things harder for the wolves. You can face death, look it straight to the eye, don't you?

EDIT: X-posted with Diamond & Caran

[Nogrod]

When do I get to sleep!!?? Just have to make "just one comment" more...

The Jenny-analysis...


#47: Lists those she finds suspicious: Nogrod, because she thinks he's supporting a bad idea; Diamond for "general hyperness"; and Sleepy for random vote.

#219: Tells the orcs not to kill the dreamer, but rather someone like Spawn, Roa, Nogrod, or Diamond.


#47 I think my idea is shining ever more brightly after these occasions... :D

#219 I think it should be read differently: she was talking to us villagers, to get rid of Spawn, Roa, myself and Diamond? Well, that should be checked... I was a bit confused myself about the subject of that sentence when I read it the first time.

Good night. (Good morning...)

[Caranlondien]

No need for an orc to kill a dreamer, boys and girls, what are the odds he/she gets a dream again? Kill someone really threatening, like Spawn, Roa, Nogrod, or Diamond.

#219 I think it should be read differently: she was talking to us villagers, to get rid of Spawn, Roa, myself and Diamond? Well, that should be checked... I was a bit confused myself about the subject of that sentence when I read it the first time.
Actually, that's how I read it at first, too, but after re-reading it, I think she is talking to the orcs. She starts out talking about how there's no reason for the orcs to kill a dreamer (I guess she means Zali?), and her second sentence seems to be in reference to the first, so it looks like she's still talking about the orcs doing the killing.

Even more cunning, perhaps it's meant to be ambiguous, to confuse us even more...

[Caranlondien]

And I, too, must get some sleep. Hopefully things will seem clearer on the morrow...

[Diamond18]

The Crazy Orc That Was
Or, an Analysis of Jenny's Posts

Jenny's posts:

#13 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=460501&postcount=13) - #47 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=460655&postcount=47) - #52 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=460678&postcount=52) - #121 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=460925&postcount=121) - 3108 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=460906&postcount=108) - #136 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=460957&postcount=136) - #157 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=461048&postcount=157) - #129 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=461187&postcount=219) - #222 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=461190&postcount=222) - #223 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=461191&postcount=223) - #227 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=461196&postcount=227) - #229 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=461199&postcount=229)


The thing that stands out most to me, about Jenny, is understandably that she was my loudest accuser. I did not at first understand why she was so quick to jump on me for lack of substance, I began to suspect that she was an Orc who had sniffed out an easy scapegoat, and now I'm sure of it.

In her second post, it's Nogrod, Diamond, and Sleepy she points the finger at. I am thinking she was testing the waters to see who she could get others to bandwagon for. Especially since Nogrod has claimed to dream of Sleepy's innocence. If this is true, that shows that Jenny accused three innocents in this post. Like I said, testing the waters.

Third post, she votes for me. I later said this about this post:

#54 Votes for Diamond saying not enough substance. (Diamond finds this whole trend highly annoying and no fun at all, and thinks Jenny is one to talk, but then she’s already spoken her piece about that. :p)

(It was post #54 when I wrote my analysis, and now it is #52. You'll remember some posts had to be deleted, changing the post numbers after that.)

To this Jenny was quick to say:

Diamond, there is a big difference between volume and substance.

Still going after me, and probably feeling the heat of my suspicion. After I wrote a more detailed opinion post, she wrote a more detailed defense of herself. This can all be considered rubbish now that we know she was guilty. I was right to suspect her posting and she knew it.

So anyway, because Jenny seemed set on me as her favored scapegoat, I really have to wonder: what were her fellow Orcs doing? Were they supporting her in this endeavor? Were they playing the Good Cop to her Bad Cop? I know that a few players agreed with Jenny about me (Naria, LiS, Kitanna, Caran, Nogrod and Celuien at first) and others didn't (Grendilien, Nogrod and Celuien eventually, Roa, and Sleepy) so now I'm of course wanting to look closely at these people. Though Nogrod and Sleepy may be off the hook.

Of course, her fellow Orcs may have decided to mostly ignore me in order to distance themselves entirely from Jenny.

And then, I may be totally narcissistic to think any of the posts to or about me have any real significance. But Jenny didn't make many posts and most of them (pre-outing) either were excuses as to why she couldn't be active, or accusations of me.

I'm not sure I even want to try analyzing her posts after she was slated for death. They're obviously only there to drive us crazy.

[Diamond18]

Actually, that's how I read it at first, too, but after re-reading it, I think she is talking to the orcs. She starts out talking about how there's no reason for the orcs to kill a dreamer (I guess she means Zali?), and her second sentence seems to be in reference to the first, so it looks like she's still talking about the orcs doing the killing.

Frankly, I think she wanted the villagers to find Spawn, Nogrod, Roa, and Diamond as suspicious. By telling the Orcs to kill them, she could be pretending to bluff, by basically telling two of the Orcs to kill themselves. That's what I'm guessing she wanted some villagers to think. Look who's on the list.

Spawn = Innocent
Me = The person she's been trying to get lynched
Nogrod = possibly innocent, looking so if he's honest about Sleepy
Roa = the person who would be extremely suspicious if Spawn had been the Shaman

So right now I'm thinking this is a case of speaking the truth to make it look like lies. Or just speaking the truth, period.

There is a possibility this is split in half, with me and Spawn innocents and Roa and Nogrod Orcs. But I don't believe that. My instincts tell me all four are probably the same and therefore all four are innocent.

[Grendelien]

But then there is the question, why didn't she protect her last night?

Assuming Zali is the Ranger, and she really did protect Spawn the first night, Spawn cannot be protected a second night in a row. If Zali remembered this, then why would she have revealed that she protected Spawn the first night, knowing that she can't protect her the second night? It may have been because she wanted us to believe that she truly is the Ranger, and is not lying about it...or it may be because she wanted to gain our support by rescuing an innocent (Spawn), who Zali, if she were an orc, would've already known to be an innocent before the killing.

[Diamond18]

Assuming Zali is the Ranger, and she really did protect Spawn the first night, Spawn cannot be protected a second night in a row. If Zali remembered this, then why would she have revealed that she protected Spawn the first night, knowing that she can't protect her the second night?

The Orcs knew that Zali protected Spawn. So it was for the benefit of the innocent villagers that she revealed this. Assuming she's been telling the truth. And I think she is, mostly because there was really no need to put Jenny on the chopping block yesterDay. She had no votes. She was successfully flying under most people's radar. It would be a most reckless Orc-on-Orc action to suddenly out her, I think. I do not think it is beneficial to the two remaining Orcs to have lost Jenny the way they did -- as an Orc Zali could only survive for so long pretending to be the Ranger.

[Grendelien]

Nogrod, reading over your post again, were you asking why Zali did not protect Spawn last Night (assuming that Zali did not protect Spawn the first Night)? I don't want to misinterpret your words.

[Grendelien]

The Orcs knew that Zali protected Spawn. So it was for the benefit of the innocent villagers that she revealed this. Assuming she's been telling the truth.

Ahh yes, I forgot about this. Sorry about that. I think I did misinterpret Nogrod's post.

[Diamond18]

People I am most suspicious of:

Kitanna
Naria
Legolas in spandex

These three are all very quiet and have either voiced suspicion for me or voted for me. It is my feeling that at least one of them is an Orc and has been acting as Jenny's accomplice to some extent.

People I am less suspicious of:

Findëasëa
Caranlondien
Grendelien
Celuien

Caran and Celuien both voted for me the first day but seemed to mostly drop their suspicion afterwards. They could be Orcish accomplices who drew back when I showed up to defend myself. Or they could be innocents who joined Jenny's bandwagon because the reasoning looked good. Only, Celuien voted for me first, so if anyone was starting a bandwagon that day, it was her.... Hm.

Findëasëa and Grendelien are on my radar but I haven't got more or less reason to suspect them than anyone else in the first two categories.

People I am least suspicious of:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Nogrod
Sleepy
Roa_Aoife

[Diamond18]

Okay, boys and girls, this is it for me. I normally don't like to vote so early in the Day, but tomorrow I don't expect to be around hardly at all, and I know I won't be around at the deadline. So there's not much point in putting it off.

+ + Kitanna

If you don't see me at all for the rest of the Day, don't be surprised. I may pop in, but no time for long analysis or anything. If the need should arise for me to defend myself, bloody tough luck. You can look at my earlier posts and imagine what I might say. ;)

[Findëasëa]

It seems that the claims that JennyHallu made before her death were aimed at promoting dissent among people. She mentioned some of the villagers most prominent, if also most questioned, individuals. We know at least one of these people, Spawn, is innocent. For reasons that I state below, I believe that Nogrod is also innocent. The other two she points out as dangerous are Diamond and Roa. Jenny subsequently accused some of the most quiet members of the village including Grendelian, Naria and myself. The separation of these groups seems to me a clear tactic that would cause confusion and disagreement. This is a really intelligent strategy, playing off of the apparent differences between the quiet and more talkative villagers.

I would guess that at least one of the names mentioned is a wereorc. The identities of the wereorcs might be more obvious if she were to leave out or to include both of the wereorcs in either the group of names mentioned or not mentioned. She probably wanted to make the wereorcs as unrelated as possible in people’s minds. Among the first four that she mentions the two that I have not ruled out yet are Diamond and Roa. She points out Naria twice as a wereorc. I might be wrong, but it would seem that this would be too obvious of an approach. A wereorc would most likely not want to draw attention to any sort of connections that could exist. Jenny seemed in control in both her earlier posts and the ones she made after she was made aware of her impending death. I doubt she would make this kind of move. I do not really know about Grendelian, but she does not stick out as suspicious to me as of yet.

I thought it was interesting that she threw more suspicion upon the quiet members of the group. As was discussed earlier, it would make sense if the orcs wanted to throw suspicion upon those in the village with the most contribution, in order to cripple the village and to leave the quiet members to get picked off with little resistance. Jenny’s accusations, therefore, could point towards a loud orc. I know that the statements that Jenny made after learning about her death were meant to confuse and lead us astray, but, given her skill, it would make sense that she put a good deal of thought into her posts so that it would not implicate her fellow orcs.

I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.

[Grendelien]

I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.

I have been thinking the same things, with the exception that the dream really did fall into the hands of Nogrod. I have come up with three possibilities, all of which coincide with Findeasea's post. But please, correct me if any of you find error in my reasons.

Assuming that Nogrod really did receive the dream (which I believe he did, because, as Findeasea stated, it would be too risky for him to lie about receiving the dream), and the dream really was about Sleepy (considering Sleepy's recent posts against Jenny's orcish outbursts could make him seem entirely innocent or entirely guilty, I believe the Shaman did chose Sleepy to dream about) here are some possibilities I came up with:

1) both Nogrod and Sleepy are wereorcs. I don't thnk that Nogrod would lie about Sleepy's nature, because it would just be too risky for them both. If we ever lynched one of them, or if an ordo received a dream about either, both would be done for. They may have done this, hoping that they would kill the Shaman before an ordo receives a dream about them, but it just seems too risky. That may be a risk they are willing to take, but I find it highly unprobable.

2) Nogrod is an orc, and Sleepy is an ordo. If the shaman did choose Sleepy, and the dream happened to fall into the hands of Nogrod, Nogrod could have truthfully revealed that Sleepy is an ordo. This way, if Sleepy were later killed by the remaining wereorcs or lynched and his elfish identity revealed, this would give us reason to believe that Nogrod is an ordo.

3) Both Nogrod and Sleepy are ordos. This seems fairly likely, and I will read over Nogrod's reasons for revealing the dream again in the morning.

As Findeasea stated, there is a chance that Nogrod did not receive the dream and is lying about Sleepy's identity, but I agree that this would be even riskier than receiving the dream and lying about Sleepy.
There is also a chance that the dream was not about Sleepy, and Nogrod is just trying to get the Shaman to say something...but by doing this, even though the orcs would know the identity of the shaman, they would be down to 1. I don't think they would risk lowering their numbers to 1 at this point.

So, based on this, I have a feeling that both Nogrod and Sleepy are innocent, or that Nogrod is an orc and Sleepy is innocent. But please add to/correct anything I said, for the reasons that I give are just thoughts!

[Celuien]

Sleepy is not an orc.

Well there goes my theory. :rolleyes: I doubt that the dream is a lie.

Known (?) innocents:
Zali
Sleepy

Votes:
Diamond -> Kitanna (Kitanna -1)

I'd better find myself some more suspects toDAY. Unfortunately, it's a somewhat bisy day since I have rehearsals tonight, which is going to complicate my suspect search..

[Nogrod]

So. Assuming that Zali has told us the truth, we will have quite a clever orcish thing going on.

Trying to kill Spawn on the first night was a clever thing. It would take out one good player(Spawn), and point the finger on another (Roa). So kind of a "two-in-one" -stuff.

Killing Spawn on the second was clever too. It was safe (no ranger coming in between there any more), and it made Roa look even worse + it also casted some minor doubts on me (Spawn, who now was proven innocent, had suspected and voted for me DAY2).

On these grounds I think it was wiser for them to kill Spawn first - pressing on the villagers suspicions towards their active fellows. Zali could be on their list next.

So the whole stage is set for us to suspect Roa (and possibly me too). In an individual scene, Jenny then tries to make us believe, that we should get rid of Spawn, Roa, Diamond and me.

Enough for the time being for me to go on jumping over either Diamond or Roa. [Edit: Oh this broken english of mine! I mean: I'm not going to waste my energy on them today]

If that is the case, we will really have to start working on this.

[Sleepy Ranger]

First off I'd like to say, I shall accept death and all that may come of it. My journey so far has been great and I really enjoyed playing a fool on Day 1, Day 2 turned the tide in our favor and I did begin to stop acting like a fool, this may be our last day together so I shall try my best to help you as well as I may. I don't blame you for anything Nogord, you did good. I knew you were innocent though I may have been in a bit of doubt earlier. :)

If I'm not back again this time tommorrow.... Carry on... Carry on... Doesn't really matter

Too late... my time has come... send shivers down my spine, bodys aching all the time... good-bye everybody I've got to go, got to leave you all behind and face the truth

Mama... ooo (any way the wind blows)... I don't want to die, I sometimes wish I'd never been born at all

Sorry couldn't resist doing that...

My Opinions On You!

Caranlondien: Possibly Innocent
I don't really see anything wrong with her but theres something in the back of my mind that keeps telling me that her posts have a level of guilt in them. Are you hiding something from us Caranlondien? If so, cough up.
Possible Risk: ***
---

Nogrod: Innocent
I was certain of his innocence since the time Spawn was proved innocent. To me it seemed Spawn was coming onto him too hard, which made it look like if she were a wolf then she was trying to make it look like Nogrod was innocent (which he wouldn't be) yet Nogrod has been reasonable and I believe that hes innocent.
Possible Risk: None to us
---

Grendelien & Findëasëa: Possible Orc(s)
They both seem to have that new person demanor for some reason, they seem like they want to try their best to help. I don't like it. However it would be odd for both to be orcs so I'd say if one is an orc the other is innocent however theres a big chance both are innocent.
Possible Risk: ***
---

Celuien: Innocent
I think Celuien is innocent... I could be wrong but I think she is... y'know I think she may be the shaman...
Possible Risk: **
Note: She is the shaman!
---

Zali: Ranger
---

Diamond: Innocent
Its obvious shes an innocent, I refuse to listen to any theories anyone would have regarding her. If at the end of all things Diamond is revealed to be an orc I'll drop my title of 'King of Quotes'!
---

Kitanna: Orc
I'm almost certain Kitanna is an orc that and I've never liked players who are too aggressive. I'll probably vote for her or Naria today.
Possible Risk: *****
---

Naria: Orc
I don't know why but I believe JennyHallu for some reason...
---

Sleepy Ranger: I... am... Sleepy... Ranger...!
:)
---

Legolas in spandex: Hopeless noob
That is all that needs to be said.
---

Roa_Aoife: Innocent
At this stage I can't see her as anything but.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Wait...! I just though of something! Could it be possible that Zali is in fact *not* the Ranger but the Shaman? Think about it, she came out as ranger to keep her shamaness self hidden. And she probably thought it may work to confuse the orcs. On another note if I'm wrong and the actual Shaman has dream about an orc would they please come out? I dunno I just have a feeling the Shaman is Celuien!

[Findëasëa]

sleepy ranger:
You confuse me. We, or at least I, believe that Nogrod's dream about you was true and that you are an innocent. My question then is why you are posting your suspicions about who the shaman is? Isn't it in our best interest to try to hide this from the orcs? Let them do the figureing on the shaman. Making statements about who you think is the shaman only serves to limit the pool of people that they suspect.

[Sleepy Ranger]

sleepy ranger:
You confuse me. We, or at least I, believe that Nogrod's dream about you was true and that you are an innocent. My question then is why you are posting your suspicions about who the shaman is? Isn't it in our best interest to try to hide this from the orcs? Let them do the figureing on the shaman. Making statements about who you think is the shaman only serves to limit the pool of people that they suspect.

Rest assured, I know what I'm doing. I've got something up my sleeve, its a wild card and I think its the ace of spades.

[Roa_Aoife]

Scanning through- I have to go back and re-read everything, but this caught my eye.

Especially since Nogrod has claimed to dream of Sleepy's innocence. If this is true, that shows that Jenny accused three innocents in this post. Like I said, testing the waters.

Just because Nogrod dreamed deosn't mean he's innocent. He may be an orc trying to cover his tracks. Dreamership doesn't equal innocent in this game, since even the orcs can dream. Not that I don't trust Nogrod (I don't) but it seems a bit rash to assume this means he's innocent when it doesn't.

Also, I wasn't particularly suspicious of Diamond before, but she keeps pointing to Jenny's accusations as though they place her above suspicion somehow. The one game where I played as a wolf, I was quite ruthless in going after one of my teammates during the day. If Jenny was paying special attention to you, it could mean quite the opposite.

And also this-

I have smoked a couple of cigarettes thinking about this

Stop smoking. It's bad for you. :p

[Celuien]

Hmm. Am I the Shaman?

I'm not going to say. If you think I am, please don't say anything more to help the Orcsies spot me.

If you think I'm not a gifted, also don't say anything for now. It'll just help protect other Shaman candidates from being killed at night if I'm the leading Shaman suspect.

Either way, I'm probably doomed toNIGHT. But I don't mind. I've done my job. ;)

Not saying anymore about this subject.

[Caranlondien]

Not much time... I'm almost late for class.

First, I agree with Roa that Jenny's fervor in pursuing Diamond certainly doesn't rule Diamond out as a suspect. Neither does Nogrod's declaration that he dreamt of an innocent Sleepy make Nogrod innocent. And neither does Jenny's mention of Roa make her innocent, as Diamond seems to think. I'll be keeping a close eye on those three (Diamond, Nogrod, and Roa).

However, I do believe that Sleepy is innocent. If an orcish Nogrod had lied about an orcish Sleepy, in a few days time we'd all be wondering why Sleepy wasn't dead yet. And once we knew one of them was an orc, we'd have a nice little trail to follow to the other. I don't think Nogrod would be so foolish.

This is all I have time to write for now, but I'll be back a few hours before the Day ends; good luck, fellow villagers, in sorting out this mess while I'm gone.

[Kitanna]

First off, I'd like to respond to Sleepy.
She can be a rather aggressive player at times, in fact I believe shes been aggressive in all the games I've seen her play. Her silence disturbs me, could something be wrong? I don't know but I'd definately like to hear from her.
Indeed something is wrong, my lung has been coughed up and that is why I have not been around much. I'm not trying to fly under the radar.
I'm almost certain Kitanna is an orc that and I've never liked players who are too aggressive. I'll probably vote for her or Naria today.
Why? Because I'm agressive? That's a day one excuse for trying to get someone lynched, not a day three reason.

Interesting that the orcs would kill her over Zali. Why not go for the gifted rather than the known innocent?
I wondered at this myself. Were the orcs angry Spawn didn't bite the dust on Night two so they decided to go after her again. Now if Spawn was going to be a "safe" kill for them on Night Two it wouldn't make sense for them to try to kill her again on Night Three, unless they thought she knew something.
On Day One Spawn mostly suspected Roa and Diamond, but she mentioned Findëasëa and Sleepy. (But it appears Sleepy is innocent due to Nogrod's dream) Her mention of Findëasëa was quick and not so much of an accusation. Something like that could be enough to get the orcs attention.
On Day Two her first post was mostly defense against Nogrod's suspicions. She also mentioned Findëasëa again in her Day Two posts. Findëasëa is the only name Spawn brings up twice in an analysis. May mean something, it may not...
If I were a wereorc, I would try as hard as possible to make my image separate from that of my fellows in the minds of the other players.
When villagers outline what they would do if they were werecreatures, I always feel a little unsettled. It's like "Hey, I would never do this to the village, therefore I'm not an orc."

There's more interpretation than that, Nogrod. It's possible that Jenny didn't mention either of her fellow orcs, in hopes that we would focus away from them and onto these. I think a better question would be who isn't mentioned by her?

Then again, Jenny's clever. She may have counted on us not believing her, and so deliberately called her teammates for what they were.
One way or the other Jenny was trying to confuse us. I think she most likely named off one of her fellow orcs and kept the other one silent. Jenny's is clever and it's possible she was anticipating the village response. So, she gave us a list of names and she mentioned at least one teammate knowing we'd either look carefully at those she mentioned or those she didn't, but not both. Looking at everyone will be like repeating day one.
I do find it interesting that she revealed Rangerness without really any prompting
I'm sure Zali will speak for herself on this, but perhaps she thought if we knew her role she'd have more credibility when it came to the dream.
Though, now that I think about it, if they really thought Spawn was the Shaman, they'd know that Zali could protect her again, and would go right for the source.
The ranger isn't able to protect the same person two nights in a row though. So if the orcs thought Spawn was the shaman they should know she'd be unprotected the next night.
1) Zali is an orc.
2) Both remaining orcs have more than one word in their name.
3) One of the orcs is male and another is experienced in the role.
4) Grendelien is an orc.
5) Findeasea is an orc.
6) Naria is an orc. (And she says this twice.)
While it's hard to say what is true and what is not I'd say number 1 is false. I feel Zali is innocent, though we can never be sure, I think she told us the truth about her role. Also I think of the other five "clues" Jenny left, number 3 will probably be the truest. Of all the others I think if any were to be true this one would be the one. I don't follow all the WW games, so I can't say who is experienced in the werecreature role. I think the part about one being a male is true, simply because the odds of the orcs all being one sex are slim.
Sleepy is not an orc.
I'm glad Nogrod revealed the dream. I was far from convinced of Sleepy's innocence.
If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. If Nogrod is an orc he could see reveals Sleepy as an innocent a way to clear his name. He reveals Sleepy because Sleepy has gathered suspicion today and if he saves Sleepy from the noose he'll look good. And should Sleepy die during the night (any night) Nogrod can always say "Well, I saved Sleepy from a lynching, why would I be foolish enough to kill him at night?"
Now I am not convinced of Nogrod's innocence at all. I believe he speaks the truth about Sleepy, but I have been weary of Nogrod since day one and his revealing the dream does nothing to take away my suspicions.
Wait...! I just though of something! Could it be possible that Zali is in fact *not* the Ranger but the Shaman? Think about it, she came out as ranger to keep her shamaness self hidden. And she probably thought it may work to confuse the orcs. On another note if I'm wrong and the actual Shaman has dream about an orc would they please come out? I dunno I just have a feeling the Shaman is Celuien!
Ack! I discourage revealing who you think is the shaman because you just might be right. I have an idea who I think it might be, but for fear of being right I won't reveal it. The last thing I want is our shaman getting mauled in the night.
As for Zali being the shaman and just pretending to be the ranger I recall Fea trying something like that and it ended badly.

[Nogrod]

I don't think Nogrod would be so foolish.


Well, thank you! Just from the brief look at this, I thought this village had gone completetly mad!

RL-issue: have to visit my mom, as she requested. I'll be back in some couple of hours and try to hang as long as I dare: I have work tomorrow, and the closing time of theDay here is 3AM today.

I have read the posts again, and am starting to think, that maybe I should put Diamond back to my list of suspicions...

Basically I looked at the posts of three yet unknown to me, eg. Caran, Grend & Find.

Just a shortcut (bus leaves in then minutes).

Caranlodien I do not suspect much, even her judgements on the basis of her (very good) analysis seem weird or even contradictory at times...

Findëasëa has started quietly and made some confusing choices to beging with, but she has been getting better all the time.

Grendelien seems intelligent, a bit too intelligent to be a total newbie (just like had been pm'd about the stuff all night?) Also see Spawn's analysis on her! See for yourselves! This is just a "look and see" -warning. I don't know what to make of her. Looks very good - and thence very bad...

I'll try to be back asp. and try to elaborate then.

PS. Sleepy: C'mon, cool down! Just help us now, please! You will probably be alive tomorrow anyhow...

[Sleepy Ranger]

Look Nogrod, bear with me for a while. I know what I'm doing, trust me on this. I am calm, I know I won't die tonight but if I see to trap an orc I'll take it. Just trust me on this, I know what I'm doing. :)

As for you Kitanna, you hadn't posted in a long while and I guess I worded my post wrong but I meant to say that it didn't suit your aggressive nature. And I didn't know about your lung so yeah.

[Grendelien]

If Nogrod is an orc he could see reveals Sleepy as an innocent a way to clear his name. He reveals Sleepy because Sleepy has gathered suspicion today and if he saves Sleepy from the noose he'll look good. And should Sleepy die during the night (any night) Nogrod can always say "Well, I saved Sleepy from a lynching, why would I be foolish enough to kill him at night?"
Now I am not convinced of Nogrod's innocence at all. I believe he speaks the truth about Sleepy, but I have been weary of Nogrod since day one and his revealing the dream does nothing to take away my suspicions.

I've had this suspicion as well, but it's possible that Nogrod is an ordo and has hidden motives in mind when revealing his dream. I'm very torn between these two possibilities.

[Grendelien]

Grendelien seems intelligent, a bit too intelligent to be a total newbie (just like had been pm'd about the stuff all night?)

Hahah, ouch, Nogrod. I know my posts before weren't substantial, but I assure you my list of obvious possibilities was my own. I was thinking about your dream all last night, trying to come up with as many possibilities as possible (where is the thesaurus?). I omitted the ones supporting the possibilty of your innocence, simply because, if you are innocent, I believe you have a hidden agenda, which I don't think should be disclosed at this time. However, I cannot be sure of your innocence, simply because I have two contrasting thoughts about you eating at my brain. For the purpose of narrowing suspects, I'm going to move onto the other villagers for now, unless I find substantial evidence supporting your innocence of verifying your guilt.

[Diamond18]

Though, now that I think about it, if they really thought Spawn was the Shaman, they'd know that Zali could protect her again, and would go right for the source.The ranger isn't able to protect the same person two nights in a row though. So if the orcs thought Spawn was the shaman they should know she'd be unprotected the next night.

D'oh. That was my quote and it was a typo. Could = couldn't. Which makes more sense in the context I was using, I hope. I have a bad habit of leaving off contractions. :rolleyes:

Anyway, I have very little time as I am late for work (the story of my life, yes, I know) but I just wanted to say, I love you Sleepy. :) And if that looks suspicious, I don't care. :p

[Sleepy Ranger]

As for Zali being the shaman and just pretending to be the ranger I recall Fea trying something like that and it ended badly.

No, it was WWJ I and the villagers won that. The irony of it all was that the ranger was pretending to be the seer and the seer was pretending to be the ranger.

but I just wanted to say, I love you Sleepy. :)

Ssssshhh! Don't let Ka hear you...
Anyway since I'm off for the day I'll leave my vote;

Grenden seems to be too good to be true at the moment so I'll leave it at that. I've gone through things and decided voting for Naria could be folly or it could actually be the right way down, as for Kitanna, good to have her back but I still can't shake off that dis-trust for her.

I hope I'm not making any mistakes, I'm trusting you on this one JennyHallu, please don't be pushing me the wrong way!

++Naria

EDIT: Just decided to add, "I love you too, Diamond you cute little duck!"

[Naria]

I hope I'm not making any mistakes, I'm trusting you on this one JennyHallu, please don't be pushing me the wrong way!

Well Sleepy, just like everyone has been saying Jenny is a smart little weasel!! She is definitely "pushing" you in the wrong direction. Why on earth you would want to believe a werecreature is beyond me! If you are an ordo then you have definitely made a mistake, if you are an orc than it makes perfect sense why you would trust her and vote for me. However, I do believe that Nogrod has dreamt of you and found you to be innocent :p .

Once again, though. Nogrod could have dreamt of Sleepy and is just saying that he is an ordo when in fact he could be an orc. Remember the one with the dream can do with the dreamt information as they wish. It would be a very clever plan indeed. Nogrod says, "hey Sleepy is an ordo" when he could be Nogrod's sidekick, meanwhile making himself and Sleepy look like innocents...hmmm. I wouldn't put it past either one of these two to come up with such a dubious plan. However, just food for thought and I will leave this topic for now.

I am going to re-read over everyone's posts and will be back with my findings. It may take me awhile, but I will get it posted.

[Nogrod]

Once again, though. Nogrod could have dreamt of Sleepy and is just saying that he is an ordo when in fact he could be an orc. Remember the one with the dream can do with the dreamt information as they wish. It would be a very clever plan indeed. Nogrod says, "hey Sleepy is an ordo" when he could be Nogrod's sidekick, meanwhile making himself and Sleepy look like innocents...hmmm.


Well. I don't like to be this kind of an old grumpy to whine on everything, but just look at what I have said at my first post:

= Nogrod #2
My basic instinct would say, we just come forwards with them, one by one, as we have them. The orcs possibly won't get very far with lying about them (one "found out" -lie - when the dream goes to an orc that tries to save a fellow - would get another orc lynched immediately?)

And I have tried to make that point all along: the dreamers are not proven innocents, they are vessels to carry the dreams - and given to the wrong hands, they might be deceitful - but not long-lasting ones.

I have not claimed innocence by revealing my dream. I do trust your judgement on that - as Zali will have to trust our judgement over her. We might have reasons against her or then not - and the same goes with me.

I am not so stupid, as to try this kind of gamble, were I an orc. Please. I guess the orc having a dream, should just stay quiet - that would gain some confusion, sooner or later... and would not give the villagers the edge of one votee as the day closes.

But you believe, what you want to believe. I didn't reveal my dream to save my butt - with this I agree with Celuien: better that I go than a gifted going. I revealed it, because it will make the night more confusing for the orcs ("whom to go after?"), and because Sleepy was getting suspected, and I knew he was innocent. Let's not lynch innocents, if we can avoid it. It will be just a couple of days onwards, when the question of pure mass (the ratio between the innocents vs. the orcs) comes forwards and will start to dictate all the things done here...

This to begin with. I'll come back soon with some thoughts about Caran, Find & Grend...

[Caranlondien]

Grenden seems to be too good to be true at the moment
I have to stick my nose in here and say that I came under suspicion for exactly the same reason in the last WW game... and I was innocent, just doing a darned good job on my own :D

For now I'm willing to put aside my suspicions of Zali. Right now I'm feeling most suspicious of Nogrod and Kitanna. Typical loud wolf/quiet wolf there (with orcs instead of wolves, of course). And I can't shake my feeling about Roa (I know, I know, I have Analysis Disease, and I can't trust anyone after I've analyzed them). If only I had time to look deeper at the suspects, but, suspicious as it may seem, if I want to eat today I have to run over before class, and I shan't be back until an hour or two before the Day ends.

[Grendelien]

I was planning on analyzing other villagers’ posts, but Nogrod’s recent suspicion of me came as a surprise. I was thinking for some time about why he would outwardly suspect me, and I came up with two reasons:

1)Nogrod is an ordo, truthfully revealed the dream he received about Sleepy, and sincerely believes that I am an orc.
2)Nogrod is an orc, truthfully revealed the dream about Sleepy, and believes me to be the Shaman or Ranger. Now, suppose I were lynched and you all found out that I am innocent, Nogrod would appear suspicious. However, he is smart, so why would he put himself in such a suspicious position? I was thinking about this, and it occurred to me that Nogrod knows that we think him smart, so he knows that we would think “why would Nogrod put himself in that position if he were an orc? That’s not smart.” The villagers may think him unlikely of doing such a thing, and he would therefore look less suspicious in the villagers’ eyes.
Then I thought about why Nogrod would use the early post of an innocent villager (Spawn) as backup to accuse me of being an orc. At that point, all posted suspicions had little bases to support the suspicions. Once again, I believe that since Nogrod knows we think he is smart, upon finding out I was innocent the villagers would not bind him to this reason for accusing me because they might find it too weak a reason for an orc to use, thus finding Nogrod to be innocent.

Right now Nogrod seems the most suspicious to me. It is possible that he is an ordo, but my suspicions tell me he could very well be an orc. I realize that this defensive post on my part, and offense against Nogrod appears suspicious, especially if Nogrod does turn out to be innocent. However, I currently believe him to be an orc. I will not vote until later, just in case anything comes up that reveals Nogrod's identity.

[Celuien]

I don't want to vote so early and after having been so relatively quiet today (RL got busy today), but I'm going to have to due to that rehearsal I was talking about lasting until about an hour after the day ends.

++ KITANNA

I'm willing to trust Diamond on this for today, as my suspect has gone up in smoke.
:rolleyes:

I'm not sure why Sleepy felt compelled to announce that he thinks I'm the Shaman. It's strange, and but for the dream announcing his innocence, I'd have added it to evidence for his being an Orc. I hope that plan of his is working out the way it's supposed to if he's innocent. (Actually, I can think of one reason for innocent-Sleepy to do it, but if he genuinely thinks I'm the Shaman, it doesn't work.)

Ugh. I case I don't survive the night, here's where I was going with Sleepy/Nogrod:

1) Nogrod as an Orc who did receive the dream about Sleepy.
1a) Sleepy is also an Orc and Nogrod used the dream (knowing it would be confirmed as a dream) to show his colleague's 'innocence.' They then planned to out the Shaman the next day with the confirmed innocent of the pair.
1b) Nogrod is an Orc using the dream of an innocent Sleepy as cover. This argument has already been made.

For the options under section 1, I actually think 1a would be the more likely. I'm still a bit perturbed over the 'Celuien is the Shaman' stuff.

2) Nogrod and Sleepy are both innocent.

For the record: This the the theory I currently accept, just because I've been inclined (even without dream evidence) to trust him from the beginning because his behavior has felt innocent to me. But, it's entirely possible that I'm wrong, so, if I'm dead tomorrow, because 1a is plausible, please look in to it for me.

See you in the morning, I hope.

[Roa_Aoife]

OKay, I'm back in, and I looked at Jenny's posts after the dream reveal to see who she didn't mention. They are:

Legolas in spandex
Kitanna
Celuien
Caranlondien

I already analyzed Caran and Celuien, and they both looked fairly innocent. Or rather, there was nothing that jumped out at me from them. LiS... I sincerly doubt has any special role in this game. That would leave Kitanna. Of course this alone isn't enough to cause great suspicion. I'm going to go back and analyze her to see what I find.

Also, since I was looking for Jenny's posts after the reveal, I found this:

I've been going back and forth about this ever since I got in yesterday night. And subtlety was foiled: Jenny plays too well.

This confused me because I didn't remember her mentioning Jenny before. I went back, and I found only one mention- she disagreed with something Jenny said about Diamond. Not really going "back and forth" about anything. Zali, could you clarify what you meant?

EDIT: Cross posted with Celuien

[Roa_Aoife]

It's almost closing time, so here's the vote count:

Kitanna 2
Naria 1

Have we heard from everyone today?

[Nogrod]

It's almost closing time, so here's the vote count:

Kitanna 2
Naria 1

Have we heard from everyone today?

2½ hours to go - as we have one more hour by Farael, as the starting was delayed...

But good question. Legolas iS I think I haven't seen, but others missing?

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Interesting that the orcs would kill her over Zali. Why not go for the gifted rather than the known innocent?


What a twist. The two orcs remaining are either brilliant or very, very silly.

Sure, I'm not a direct threat, but I am in the way.

Wow. I'm sorry for showing up late, all. I thought I was a done deal, and just came on idly wondering what my death scene looked like.

This confused me because I didn't remember her mentioning Jenny before. I went back, and I found only one mention- she disagreed with something Jenny said about Diamond. Not really going "back and forth" about anything. Zali, could you clarify what you meant?

I was not clear there, and I apologize. I meant that I'd been going back and forth in my mind as in "Do I say anything? Or is it too much of a risk to my role as Ranger?"

Either way, I think I'm pretty much dead toNight.

I'm going back to review the thread now.

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna
Day 1
1st post - suggests waiting until a true innocent is about be lynched before revealing dreams, points out that wereorcs would be able to twist dreams in their favor with out having to lie, fears the shaman could get found out this way.
2nd - Isn't suspicious of anyone in particular, summarizes day so far
3rd - brief analysis of those voted for- Roa is slightly suspicious, Diamond is acting oddly, no opinion on Glirdan or Jenny, annoyed with Sleepy. Votes Sleepy.

Day 2
1st post - Doesn't think Spawn's suspicion of Roa was bad, but doesn't think Roa is a threat right now, worried about gut feelings, concerned about Diamond's statement of being unhelpful, finds Zali suspicious, agrees with Celuien about orcs paring with innocents, Votes Diamond, says she's not overly suspicious of Diamond, but her unhelpful post has made her worry.

Day 3
1st post - Says she's been ill, says aggressiveness is not a good reason for lynching someone, discusses the causes of Spawn's death, points out that Findeasea was the only one mention on both Day 1 & 2 in a suspicious manner, also nervous by Findeasea's talk about her own werecreature behavior, thinks that Jenny mentioned at least one teammate, doesn't believe Zali is an orc, thinks it's most likely that one orc is male, suspicious of Nogrod, discourages talking about who might be a gifted.
No Vote yet

Analysis coming. (I'm going back to my usual way of doing things.)

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna seems to be behaving in a very careful manner. She walks a steady middle ground on all debates (except the dream one, which was Nogrod vs. the village, as per usual). She makes lots of definite statements about a lot of people, which isn't really being definite at all. This could just be an innocent villager with no clear idea of who to suspect, or it could be a quiet orc trying to stay out of sight. On the whole, I wish she would post more so we could get a better picture of where she stands.

[Roa_Aoife]

Legolas iS I think I haven't seen, but others missing?

A quick check shows that LiS is the only one missing now.

[Nogrod]

”The case Grendelien” – read as a Devil’s advocate...

I thought long before I posted this. I see the mood has changed, and what I started as a quite harmless occupation of looking at certain people who have avoided any thorough analysis or negative interpretations, seems to me now quite doubtful. But after all, it's just a game.

So Grendelien & others, read carefully! This is not an open accusation, but the thing I have gotten as I have analyzed your posts with the eye of you being an orc! That is not to say you are one.

I'm sure, that a similar story could be wrought out of almost anyone...

#24
if the dreamer tells us the dream, s/he will most likely be killed if the dream is incriminating

Trying to distract us? The dreamer is not the first to be killed...

#83
Ah, I've been beating my brains over this this choice for some time..this is a very difficult decision to make. It is true that Diamond18's posts lack significant substance, which is suspicious, but the detailed analyses of each elf (or orc) by certain players, such as Celuien and Norgrod could be a diversion. It's really hard to say. My suspicions of everyone are high at this point. However, I will have to cast my vote for

++Glirdan

This is funny: managing to cast suspicion on three vocal villagers, and then giving a vote for a fourth innocent...

#139 is so carefully crafted! Throwing accusations on Caranlodien, binding them to the innocence of Spawn – which the orc would know beforehand –and withdraws herself by saying she just goes by her paranoia!

Though I was suspicious (I need to find a synonym for this word) early on, at this point, I can find little evidence, other than my normal paranoia, that Caranlondien is a wereorc. Her posts seem reasonable (gah, more paranoia rising to the surface) and unhasty. If we later discover that Spawn is innocent, this may be some ilk of indication that she is a wereorc...but at this point, everyone is making claims, so I cannot find evidence to prove her guilty.

Then she “worries” about Celuien and Nogrod, toned down by:
This is no reason to believe right off that Nogrod or Celuien are definitely wolves, or are definitely innocent.
If orc-stuff, very well crafted!

Then comes this quite interesting posting sequence: #190 & #193

At #190 she seems to be an expert on were-gaming, outlining the possible ways the orcs would think and act, basically seeing lots of defensiveness as a sign of orcsery. Then on #193 she goes on saying, she would have voted for Spawn or Nogrod (not the two I might think of having foremostly been on the defence!)

, but that Zali’s announcement would regard her some analysis over Jenny’s posts and other analysis over her.

So is she trying to divert us? Hoping the others would also think, that there is some analyzing to do? About half an hour before the deadline, when everything hanged on the balance of action?

After my post:
I don't think you need to. Jenny has been dreamed of, and I trust it, because it would be fool's work to be an orc-Zali and to lie about the one dreamt of. We should find the lie out immediately after Jenny's death, and would kill Zali the next day...

She very quickly retreated and started to play a villager... Even trying to make things nice and right in her post #203
You're right, Nogrod, Azaelia, and Sleepy, I don't know what I was thinking...if Jenny's innocent, then we know Azaelia was lying...but I trust Azaelia's truthful!

& #209...

Then there was this quite an odd exhange of posts between Grendelien and Diamond (posts #260-263). I must admit, I didn’t quite get the point. :confused:

#267 Analysis of possibilities between me and Sleepy as I had revealed my dream.

But why this haste to speculate my orcness? I don’t think it bad to raise the question, but why to go then from my post, stating:

Nogrod#278
Grendelien seems intelligent, a bit too intelligent to be a total newbie (just like had been pm'd about the stuff all night?) Also see Spawn's analysis on her! See for yourselves! This is just a "look and see" -warning. I don't know what to make of her. Looks very good - and thence very bad...

To this:

#287
I was planning on analyzing other villagers’ posts, but Nogrod’s recent suspicion of me came as a surprise.
... LOTS OF SPECULATION OF POSSIBLE ORCNESS IN HERE ...
Right now Nogrod seems the most suspicious to me. It is possible that he is an ordo, but my suspicions tell me he could very well be an orc.

Jumping around a bit – but still staying calm enough to make the save at the end (“it is possible...”)?

I don’t know, what to say about this. If there is a bandwagon tonight, you others will see, how it was started. Caran helped a lot in that. I try to hang on long enough to make some sort of analysis over her too, but let’s see.

I would hate to see Grendelien as an wereorc, and my guts tell me she isn't one. But I hope you others (Grendelien included!) help me with this. Mainly I would like to hear some points concerning the stuff I have bolded. Remember: only two people are orcs, others are goodies. Let's be careful, about the reasons we trust and join the lynch today...

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

But if you think that through, you will see more miracles: if Zali is a wolf, she could have mentioned Spawn just as a point to be affirmed the next night (maybe the real "save" was not Spawn? The ranger would not disagree about that openly - although the wolves might like her/him to do it). Her innocence quaranteed this way? But then there is the question, why didn't she protect her last night?

I did not protect Spawn last night because I couldn't. By Farael's rules, I am not allowed to protect a player more than one night in a row.

This was not a Wolfish plot. I am really the ranger. Why would I draw suspicion to myself by placing Spawn and Spawn only alongside me on my "innocent" list?

I am by no means clever enough to pull off a gifted impersonation. Hey, I can't even manage being a gifted without opening my big mouth and letting the secret fall out.

Wait...! I just though of something! Could it be possible that Zali is in fact *not* the Ranger but the Shaman? Think about it, she came out as ranger to keep her shamaness self hidden. And she probably thought it may work to confuse the orcs.

Now why would I do a thing like that? Coming out as any kind of a gifted is like tattooing "ORC BAIT" across your forehead in huge orange letters. Shaman? Ranger? both are a danger to the orcs. The Shaman is, admittedly, a greater danger. As ranger, all I can do is get in the way. However, any gifted impersonation is very risky and usually backfires.

Celuien, I think I'm probably next on the Orcs' kill list, rather than you... I am a self-admitted ranger, and only someone else suggested that you were the shaman. The village knows something definite about my role in the game. They have no such fodder on you. I'm guessing Spawn died as the result of my foolishness yesterday in an attempt to provide the rest of you with at least a known innocent come morning.

So my apologies, Spawn. I'm sorry I got you killed. I was honestly expecting to die instead...

I'm sure Zali will speak for herself on this, but perhaps she thought if we knew her role she'd have more credibility when it came to the dream.

Actually, I didn't think it would lend my dream anything. By that time, Jenny was already pretty much lynched, thanks to help from the handful of villagers who had not yet voted. I was frustrated at not having been able to be a bit more subtle about my dream and frustrated that I would not be able to save myself if it should come to that. I was annoyed because I saw the dream as an end of the road, as far as my ranger skillz went. I was sick and not thinking the clearest. And so my sense of melodrama took the spotlight. Hence the comment about the pain of irony.

[Nogrod]

And all of you: remember the thought behind Devil's advocacy! We should try a thought (here, a person) as hard as we can, and if we can't find a problem, we think her/him good! So this is also one way of building trust among each other.

[Nogrod]

As ranger, all I can do is get in the way.

But even if I agree with you about the probability of you being the next on the list of the orcs, please think carefully, who to cover the next night. You'll have all the chances to become a double hero - one we will remember for a long time!

[Roa_Aoife]

Celuien, I think I'm probably next on the Orcs' kill list, rather than you... I am a self-admitted ranger, and only someone else suggested that you were the shaman.

Be careful what you say, Zali, if you really are the ranger. The orcs may figure out who you're going to protect and kill someone else. Please avoid statements like this, you'll only hinder the village.

Edit: Cross posted with Nogrod

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

But even if I agree with you about the probability of you being the next on the list of the orcs, please think carefully, who to cover the next night. You'll have all the chances to become a double hero - one we will remember for a long time!

No worries, Nogrod. My brain is (slowly) ticking.

And as for my thoughts on who is innocent, Roa...I'm keeping my big mouth shut this time. *breaks out the duct tape*

[Roa_Aoife]

35 minutes to the deadline and only three people have voted. Where is everyone?

I'm getting my vote in now. Kitanna has been mentioned over and over by people, but never really manages to get a lot of suspicion. She's one of our quietest villagers, she doesn't seem to be following her usual pattern, she was specifically not mentioned by Jenny. The little things are really starting to add up on her, so

++ Kitanna

I don't think I was wrong yesterday; I don't think I'm wrong now.

[Findëasëa]

35 minutes to the deadline and only three people have voted. Where is everyone?
The voting is extended an hour toDay to compensate for the late start.

[Nogrod]

NO ROA!

I tried to say this once before!

1½ hours left now!

Normally 11pm GMT, today 12, check Farael's beginning post for today!

[Roa_Aoife]

1½ hours left now!


Oh no! I missed that completely! Oh well, it doesn't matter much, since I'm holding to my suspicion of Kitanna. Unless something of great significance happens in the next 45 minutes (because that's when I have to go anyways), I doubt I'll change my opinion.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I am very short on time (though I do understand that there is an extension). But I'm going out with my family now, and don't know when I'll be back. So I have to vote now.

About the only believeable thing I could take from Jenny's posts is that the orcs are "sneaky sneaky"...The rest was obviously meant as a confusion. I am not nearly as suspicious of Naria as I am of others, though I agree that at least one of the people Jenny named is an Orc.

Looking back for behavior that could be sneaky, like several other people, my mind floated to Kitanna. Like Jenny, she plays well, and appears both helpful and clever.

I think there's such a thing as too helpful and too smart for your own good, though...and hers may be that case. After seeing the reasonable, ordinary-seeming Jenny become an orc, I'd rather err on the side of caution than allow an orc to sneak off.

So I am going to vote for

++Kitanna

today.

Here's hoping all turns out well.

Cheers!

[Grendelien]

Don't we have 1 hour and 10 minutes left?

[Grendelien]

Sorry, I didn't refresh the page quickly enough!

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, Gren, if you're here, have anything to add?

[Farael]

... who is the prettiest of them all?"

"What do I know? I'm a clock not a mirror. You know? tick-tack-tick-tack.... I told you, I'm a talking clock but you wouldn't listen. What do you want a talking clock if you don't listen to it, anyway? what you want if a talking mirror, geez....."

"Well, then what can you tell me?"

"I can tell you that there is still about an hour left for discussion and voting before the end of the day."

[Kitanna]

Short on time, I don't really have much to add from what I said earlier.
I see I've gathered plenty of suspicions. I know I'm innocent, but I also know no one is going to believe that until I hang from the noose or I'm mauled in my sleep.

I have suspicions of Findëasëa and Nogrod mostly. Of course seeing as very little time is left and to put in a vote for either of them would seem like a safe/ waste of a vote I'll help the village with its doubts.

++Kitanna

[Roa_Aoife]

Ugh, self-voters. I swear, there's one in every village. Kitanna, if you're innocent, then lynching yourself doesn't help us. There are still plenty of people left to vote, so it's not as though you're a defintie lynch. Offer a defense, come up with a reason why someone else ought to be suspected, just don't give up like that! If anything, this just makes you look like an orc trying to bluff her way out of dying. Well, I'm not falling for it.

[Grendelien]

[QUOTE=Nogrod]I don’t know, what to say about this. If there is a bandwagon tonight, you others will see, how it was started. Caran helped a lot in that. I try to hang on long enough to make some sort of analysis over her too, but let’s see.

I would hate to see Grendelien as an wereorc, and my guts tell me she isn't one. But I hope you others (Grendelien included!) help me with this.QUOTE]

Nogrod and the rest of the villagers, please understand me and take me as sincere when I say that I certainly would not want to start a bandwagon to lynch Nogrod, because a lot of consequences follow, and I certainly would not want to take responsibility for anything so drastic, especially if Nogrod is innocent. Even though I raised, rather boldly for my liking, what Nogrod's possible plans could be, and even though I may still vote for Nogrod at some point because mysuspicions are not put to rest, I would not want people to vote for you solely on the reasons I proposed. It would not be wise, because there is the possibility that I'm an orc too, (although I maintain my innocence). I don't think a majority vote for you is going to occur anytime soon because I'm sure people suspect me.
I am not going to ignore the chance [1) on my annoying list of possibilities)] that Nogrod is innocent. If you are innocent, and you have a plan in mind, you should probably not disclose it. And if you do have a plan as an innocent villager, I hope it is fulfilled. It would be awful, and I would feel awful, if you are not an orc and are lynched, because, assuming you're innocent, you are/would be a great asset to the village. I too would hate to see you as a wereorc, but the possibility remains, so I do not plan on taking you off my suspicions list anytime soon.
This post gives people another reason to suspect me for thinking I am backing off (for the possibility of Nogrod's innocence is very probable), but I'm not backing off as far as thinking Nogrod could be a severe threat. I hope, Nogrod and fellow villagers, that this explanation will suffice for the time being.

[Nogrod]

”The case Caranlodien” – With Devil’s advocate view -light version (too tired to get intensive...)

Basically she seems to be one of the most careful and thoughtful members of the village – and her analysis seem to be very good indeed! As I do not know, what you others have thought, while you have posted, I can just rely on her analysis on me #163. She seemed to get the point I was stating easily (as some others have kind of twisted them, or not understood, what I have meant).

But then there is this curious aspect on her action too. She seems to be very eager to point out interesting (#131) or good (#133) points I have made, and then she makes this total mis-statement:

#152
Nogrod makes good points, but he also makes me uneasy. Are you suggesting that without well-founded suspicions to go on, we should lynch the quiet people? I can see some of the appeal. It's true, what you said, that quiet people get more and more dangerous as the game goes on. But that's also the sort of plan a bunch of loud orcs would want.

That reasoning is clearly flawed, and I wouldn’t think a person of her intelligence would do that (I guess at least Celuien - and partly Roa have pointed this also later).

The fun starts, when she analyses my posts (#163). The analysis is good – as I have said - but then she goes on to say, that she will keep an eye on me. Making an add-on to inform us, that my post done while she was analyzing my earlier posts “addressed her concerns”, and that she was less suspicious of me because of that.

In #173 She comes up with the idea, that me and Celuien are at odds concerning the quiet-ones – which clearly is not the case. Why did she make such a lie? Still, she continues, that I have made good points on my behalf.

Then comes the jackpot:
#184
I have to go soon, and must decide how to vote. It's difficult, because one can interpret a single action in so many ways - Nogrod seems reasonable, and not set in a single way of thinking. Or, perhaps he's eager to please, and doesn't want to ruffle anyone's feathers. My analysis of Roa didn't yield much, and I'm not ready to sacrifice someone who, if she is innocent, is surely an asset to the village.

Decisions... I'll go re-read a little and then cast my vote.

And it took whole ten minutes to vote for me... I must say, I’m astonished! She has been careful enought to announce my good points and arguments, and then she just votes for me, almost out of the blue! And even as I do agree with myself being not set to just one way of thinking, I just can't see, how you could interpret me as "eager to please"! :D

And she has been continuing the same way today also. In #276, she says:
However, I do believe that Sleepy is innocent. If an orcish Nogrod had lied about an orcish Sleepy, in a few days time we'd all be wondering why Sleepy wasn't dead yet. And once we knew one of them was an orc, we'd have a nice little trail to follow to the other. I don't think Nogrod would be so foolish.

But just then on #286, she goes:
Right now I'm feeling most suspicious of Nogrod and Kitanna. Typical loud wolf/quiet wolf there (with orcs instead of wolves, of course).

So playing thoughtfully, and not suspiciously. But then somehow managing to twist her vote / open suspicions at the right moments to go on just the other way, she has been talking all the time?

I don’t know, what to say about this. Has she blind spots? Is she deliberately trying to seem like a thoughtful villager, but under that cover, trying to influence the other villagers to lynch a loud-villager (if she is an orc, she knows, I’m innocent)? At least today, her timing would be excellent...

But as with Grendelien, I have to say, that I would hate her to be an orc. Would be a good asset to us, if “proven” innocent. So come and defend yourself – and all you others, have your say. I would like to hear good reasons for your actions and to come to believe your innocence! (This goes to Grendelien also – if I haven’t spelled that out already, clearly enough)

[Roa_Aoife]

And she has been continuing the same way today also. In #276, she says:
Quote:
However, I do believe that Sleepy is innocent. If an orcish Nogrod had lied about an orcish Sleepy, in a few days time we'd all be wondering why Sleepy wasn't dead yet. And once we knew one of them was an orc, we'd have a nice little trail to follow to the other. I don't think Nogrod would be so foolish.

But just then on #286, she goes:
Quote:
Right now I'm feeling most suspicious of Nogrod and Kitanna. Typical loud wolf/quiet wolf there (with orcs instead of wolves, of course).

So playing thoughtfully, and not suspiciously. But then somehow managing to twist her vote / open suspicions at the right moments to go on just the other way, she has been talking all the time?

I can see most of your case, but this bit I think I would view differently. The general consensus has been that even if you're an orc, you wouldn't be lying about Sleepy's innocense. So then all that she's saying is that the dream was most likely true, but you are in no means off the hook.

[Nogrod]

I cross-posted with many.

Just two comments, then I have to see the posts better and think of my vote.

Kitanna: Roa is right, this won't help us as a village - and as a bluff it's very bad. Shame on you... :)

Grendelien: As I said, I'm inclined to believe your innocence, and am more so now (even there seems to be no real reason for it). I hope we both are alive tomorrow - and there is one orc less to deal with. But we should try each other, to see, whether we can trust. That's what the villagers need - the orcs know the situation, we must build the bridges without PM's or outside knowledge...

[Nogrod]

I can see most of your case, but this bit I think I would view differently. The general consensus has been that even if you're an orc, you wouldn't be lying about Sleepy's innocense. So then all that she's saying is that the dream was most likely true, but you are in no means off the hook.

I have never boasted being off the hook... I even said, that I haven't thought of saving my butt with the revelation. I think you all remember the first day, and what I thought about people should do having a dream? It is plain, that we dreamers are just "the vessels" (I'm starting to hate this idiom...).

[Roa_Aoife]

I have never boasted being off the hook... I even said, that I haven't thought of saving my butt with the revelation.

I never said you did. I'm just saying that you're making a contradiction when there isn't one to be made.

[Roa_Aoife]

New Vote count

Kitanna 5
Naria 1

Now where is everyone?

[Nogrod]

I'll try to make a tally for us.

This looks very weird indeed...

[Grendelien]

Haha, Nogrod, every post you make me very nervous...your posts strengthen the chance of your being innocent or your being an orc, and very, very good one at that. I cannot shake the notion that you are trying (as an orc) to develop bonds with ordinary villagers. You already have Sleepy's trust, because you revealed his innocence, which I believe to be true. Could it be you are just trying to get to me next? I am willing to see you try to support your innocence and, if you really are innocent, to try to come to the realization that I am innocent as well. I can't waste anymore time! I must vote soon.

[Nogrod]

Kitanna 5 (Diamond I, Celuien III, Roa IV, Zali V, Kitanna VI)
Naria 1 (Sleepy II)

And Diamond: Roa's intrpretation was right: the Roman numbers are showing the order of the vote cast.

[Caranlondien]

In #173 She comes up with the idea, that me and Celuien are at odds concerning the quiet-ones – which clearly is not the case. Why did she make such a lie? Still, she continues, that I have made good points on my behalf.
A "lie"? I assure you, if and when I get the role of orc (or wolf), I will not be so stupid as to use lies to sway to village. That statement was an honest mistake. I thought I had read Celuien saying that she disagreed with you. As for my vote for you based on admittedly little reasoning, it's because WE HAVE NO STAND-OUT SUSPECTS! We talk and talk, but it's all paranoia and little stabs at people here and there. Nothing concrete. I've honestly seen very little in the way of good ideas recently, and I've been frustrated with that. A girl's gotta vote for someone, eh?

[Farael]

TheThe voting closes in 15 minutes. Given that I let Legolas IS's non-vote go I will give you all a freebie. But two unexplained no-votes will mean your death.










In-game, of course. :D

[Nogrod]

= Grendelien
I cannot shake the notion that you are trying (as an orc) to develop bonds with ordinary villagers. You already have Sleepy's trust, because you revealed his innocence, which I believe to be true. Could it be you are just trying to get to me next? I am willing to see you try to support your innocence and, if you really are innocent, to try to come to the realization that I am innocent as well.

Welcome to the WW-game... :D

But really. You may not know, but this is not the first time Sleepy is trusting me with more than suspicious levels... I can't say anything else, but I hope you trust the arguments - we have nothing else to play wisely.

A "lie"? I assure you, if and when I get the role of orc (or wolf), I will not be so stupid as to use lies to sway to village. That statement was an honest mistake. I thought I had read Celuien saying that she disagreed with you. As for my vote for you based on admittedly little reasoning, it's because WE HAVE NO STAND-OUT SUSPECTS! We talk and talk, but it's all paranoia and little stabs at people here and there. Nothing concrete. I've honestly seen very little in the way of good ideas recently, and I've been frustrated with that. A girl's gotta vote for someone, eh?

Please forgive me my playing the "advocate". I just thought we should see something new for a while (all the people have just talked of me, Roa, Diamond etc...).

Tomorrow, those of us alive, will be much wiser, and we can get to this conversation again? At least I hope, I will be part of it.

[Naria]

I'm back. I don't believe Kitanna to be a orc....and I know that I'm no orc soooo. I think I will be voting for a third party.

In my most suspicious list I have

Celuien
Nogrod
Roa
Grend

I will be voting for one of these four toDay

[Nogrod]

How many of us here? If just Caran, Grend and me, we have no chances to avoid Kitanna being lynched... I'm not sure she is an orc, but on my suspicion list, she stands quite high anyhow (the suicide thing got me thinking - I admit).

[Grendelien]

Does Findeasea have yet to vote as well?

[Findëasëa]

I have not voted yet.

[Nogrod]

Does Findeasea have yet to vote as well?

Yes, she does.

EDIT: X-posted with Findësëa

[Roa_Aoife]

People who have voted:

Diamond, Sleepy, Celuien, Roa, Zali, Kitanna

[Caranlondien]

Okay, the people who have been under suspicion lately:

Grendelien: I just don't find her suspicious. There's something earnest in her tone, and I'm not ready to vote for her yet.

Nogrod: I've expressed my suspicions of him. I still don't trust him. I have no background playing WW with him, so this is only theorizing, but... as an orc, would Nogrod be so defensive about my case against him? It would look very suspicious if/when it's found out that I'm innocent. And he strikes me as the kind of player who wouldn't make a mistake like that.

Kitanna: She just voted for herself, possibly ensuring she'll be lynched. Not so high on my list anymore.

Roa: No one else seems to really suspect her anymore. I can't drop her off my radar, though. I don't think I'll vote for her toDay.

Naria: Sleepy suspects her. And I trust his innocence. With time racing by and just a few minutes left to vote... I might very well trust in his opinion. But I'm not ready to use that as a reason just yet...

I know that not all of you left can be orcs. Any other suspect ideas? We can still save Kitanna!

[Roa_Aoife]

9 minutes people, hurry up!

[Nogrod]

Any other cases in mind, anyone? We are five, if i reckon it right. We would need a sixtht to turn the tables... in case Naria doesn't want to vote for herself. :D (And I wouldn't like that)

[Findëasëa]

Hmm… lots of votes for Kitanna. I am not sure what I think of her, so I will not be joining in this trend. As I described earlier toDay, I think that it is highly plausible that Jenny was very careful in the wording of her last bunch of posts. Of the four people that she mentioned as dangerous I believe at least one is a wereorc. I ruled out Spawn, for obvious reasons, and Nogrod, for reasons mentioned in my earlier post. I was left suspecting Diamond and Roa. Upon further consideration, Diamond seems a lot less suspicious. She was attacked by at least one confirmed orc the first day. This does not seem to be a logical tactic, as this attack nearly resulted in Diamond’s demise. Roa is the only person left of the four listed. I hope that I am not limiting myself meaninglessly to these four, but I feel that it would be sloppy of me not to follow my logic in this case.
Roa always acts the ‘helpful innocent.’ I am not sure if this is her usual approach, it just seems like a clever way to say a lot without contributing or giving away her opinions. I vote for Roa, not necessarily because I am convinced of her guilt, but because she is the strongest suspect that I have at this time.
++Roa_Aoife

[Roa_Aoife]

Roa always acts the ‘helpful innocent.’ I am not sure if this is her usual approach, it just seems like a clever way to say a lot without contributing or giving away her opinions.

It is my usual approach (some people here can vouch for that) and I was under the impression that I was contributing and stating opinions quite a bit.

[Caranlondien]

I'm sorry but I have to leave. I don't know who else to vote for.

++Naria

EDIT: Cross-posted... unfortunately... with Findeasea

[Roa_Aoife]

4 minutes!

[Grendelien]

I'm sorry, Nogrod, but I just can't shake this suspicion yet. If you are innocent, I really, really hope you survive, which looks like might happen. I do not mean to be deceitful by saying that I will eventually give you a chance if you survive. There is this overwhelming feeling that I can't shake just yet. For now, I have to do what I feel is right at this moment. I'm sorry if you are innocent.

++Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Well, there seems to be no point in voting right now. Kitanna is dead, and that's it.

So as my vote will be of no consequence, I might just show my contempt to the way Legolas iS has played (she will be dead also?), newvie as she is... Sorry Legolas. Come again, but try to play too!

++ Legolas in Spandex

[Naria]

I'm voting

++Grendelien

No time to explain now, if i'm alive next Day I will try and explain.

[Roa_Aoife]

What is this? There are villagers her who aren't helping a bit! Vote people! Stop waiting for the last second or you'll miss the dead line!

Edit, cross posted with last 3 posts... nevermind...

[Nogrod]

I'm sorry, Nogrod, but I just can't shake this suspicion yet. If you are innocent, I really, really hope you survive, which looks like might happen. I do not mean to be deceitful by saying that I will eventually give you a chance if you survive. There is this overwhelming feeling that I can't shake just yet. For now, I have to do what I feel is right at this moment. I'm sorry if you are innocent.

++Nogrod

Don't worry... :D Hope we can discuss more tomorrow

[Farael]

TIME!!!! Cease posting, death scene coming up

[Farael]

It was a rather slow day in the village, voting-wise. It seemed some people had secretly celebrated the lynching of JennyHallu and many a hung-over face could be seen. Some accusations were tossed about, some accusations were responded to. For most of the day, Kitanna was the lead candidate for lynching, accumulating 5 votes as the day went on. There were still about six more people to vote and the time of the lynching was drawing closer, when something extremely unlikely happened.

Grendelien, Naria and Nogrod decided to vote at the exact same time. Their votes were swiftly recorded on the vot-a-tron and thus this sudden cheap-shot of destiny sealed Kitanna’s fate.

They grabbed her and tied her to a long pole. Yet they could not decide what to do with her, so they left the pole leaning against Farael’s lab wall and huddled up to decide what to do.

Nogrod: “I say we burn her. These wereorcs deserve nothing better”

Naria: “No, we’d spend too much firewood, and for some reason it’s still freezing cold even though we are supposed to be in mid-winter right now. How about we throw here on the river and let her drown?’

SleepyBarrel: “No, she’d float… she’s tied to a pole”

toc toc toc toc toc toc toc

Grendelien: “Sleepy! You promised not to kill anyone else after Day 1”

Sleepy: “Its not me.. what IS that noise?”

toc toc toc toc toc toc toc

Naria: “Erm, Roa where did you get that pole from?”

Roa_aoife: “Oh, yes I forgot to tell you. I found it in your flower shop”

Naria: “Did that pole happened to have a hole close to the top?”

Celuien: “Why, yes! It was the perfect size to fit Kitanna’s head on”

Naria: “Did anyone look inside the hole to see what was in?”

The question was answered by many embarrassed looks.

Naria: “I will share a secret with you…’

Findëasëa: “She is a wereorc!! Lynch her!!”

Naria: “See why I hardly ever talk? It’s impossible with you guys. No, I’m not a wereorc. What I was going to say is that I.. .well, I have a pet woodpecker. That log of yours is it’s home”

toc toc toc toc toc toc toc

The villagers went pale as they heard the knocking sound again

toc toc toc toc toc toc toc

Azaelia went to her house and quickly brought a blanket. They covered Kitanna’s body without looking and then lifted the covers enough to see one of her hands. It had long, white fingers with well polished nails, Kitanna was clearly not a wereorc.

The village fell silent, they had lynched their first innocent even if by accident. Disgusted, they all went home, without noticing they had forgotten something. Or rather Someone.

Legolas in Spandex was still standing next to Kitanna’s blanketed body, and she decided to lift the blanket and take a peek. With a scream, she ran away into the forest, never to be seen again.


There are still 2 wereorcs, a Ranger and a Shaman living.

Now living:
Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
JennyHallu: Doomsday prophet
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Findëasëa: paleoelfropologist
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Diamond: Inept Jewel Smith
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife aspiring ballad writer

Now dead:
FaraelMod: He dyed… erm I mean died.
GlirdanRepentant werewolf : Choked on an apple. No wonder why werewolves are carnivores.
JennyHalluWereorc: Escaped the village, but could not escape the laws of physics.
Dancing Spawn...: Just a merchant: Trapped on a deathly spider’s web.
Kitanna:The town's gate-keeper: Had a lobotomy performed by an angry woodpecker.
Legolas in spandex: Legolass (A movie-Legolas impersonator): Overwhelmed and or frightened into leaving the village after seeing what had happened to Kitanna

[Folwren]

The night was extremely still. Very still. The stars twinkled overhead in a nonchalant manner very different from the skulking figures below. "Come along, you stinking maggot," hissed one of the figures (the orcs lost their manners after sundown), "we don't have all night. That ranger might come around before we even begin the job at the rate you're going!"

The night was too clear and too peaceful for the work that lay ahead, but they didn't care or notice. The door of their victim's house was closed and bolted from within, but these orcs didn't care or notice that, either. . .

~~~

The elves gathered together in the town square, shivering in the cold, clear morning. No one said anything for a minute as everyone's eyes scanned everyone else. . .once, and then twice. . .and then, in some cases, thrice.

Nogrod: We're not all here.

Grendelian: Yes, thank you for pointing it out. He pulled out his knife as he spoke and before Nogrod could voice his fear that Grendelian was threatening him, he began to whittle a stick held in his other hand.

Zali:(faintly) I didn't think. . .

Roa_Aoife: Why didn't you save her?

Naria: She didn't know. Said very softly and barely loud enough to be heard.

Celuien: Poor Diamond.

Findëasëa: Well, let's go see what happened.

The villagers all turned and walked towards Diamond's house. As they drew near, they saw all the front windows on the first floor shattered and smashed in. The door was still closed and bolted. Roa offered to go in and unbolt the door, and the others didn't argue. In another moment, the way was opened and everyone trooped in. Silently they searched the equally silent house. A scream brought all of them running to a room towards the back of the place. Caranlondien stood in the middle of a room with no windows. Her hand was over her mouth and she looked ready to faint. When she saw the others, she pointed with a shaking hand at the corpse of their jewel smith.

The others stole forward, as though frightened that the dead might not be as dead as she looked and might leap up, full of unlively life. Celuien bent and picked up a maltreated and misformed stone from the ground. It was a diamond.

Sleepy: Looks like the orcs simply scared her to death. No wounds or anything.

Celuien didn't look up as she gently placed the stone on the desk before the dead jeweler. "Poor Diamond," she said for the second time that morning, and no one knew if she referred to the jewel or to their dead villager.


Now living:
Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Findëasëa: paleoelfropologist
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife aspiring ballad writer

Now dead:
FaraelMod: He dyed… erm I mean died.
GlirdanRepentant werewolf : Choked on an apple. No wonder why werewolves are carnivores.
JennyHalluWereorc: Escaped the village, but could not escape the laws of physics.
Dancing Spawn...: Just a merchant: Trapped on a deathly spider’s web.
Kitanna:The town's gate-keeper: Had a lobotomy performed by an angry woodpecker.
Legolas in spandex: Legolass (A movie-Legolas impersonator): Overwhelmed and or frightened into leaving the village after seeing what had happened to Kitanna
Diamond18: Simply a normal, very bad stone cutter - scared to death by orcs

[Celuien]

*pinches self*

Still alive. I didn't expect that at all. I really thought that either Zali or I would be toast last night. Still, it's good to be here.

Poor Diamond indeed. :( What puzzles me is why Diamond? I'll have to reread her analyses from yesterday, again on the basis of what could she have been right about to get herself killed.

More later...

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Wow.

Wow.

And just again, in case I forgot.

Wow.

I never would have expected the Orcs to go after Diamond: She drew enough suspicion to herself that I had marked her as innocent, but not at risk--Orcs tend to keep people that draw suspicion to themselves around, since it's easier to hide that way.

It gives me pause--Are the orcs operating under some master plan, or are they just really lost without Jenny?

I guess that today, we are supposed to wonder about the innocence of Sleepy, Nogrod, and perhaps even myself.

By waking up this Day, I recognize that all three of us draw some suspicion: Is Nogrod working with Sleepy? Am I an orc hiding under a disguise as a ranger?

I am honestly very surprised at both who the orcs picked, and by the fact that I am still alive enough to be surprised.

This calls for a reworking of my suspicions. I'll be back later.

[Findëasëa]

Hmm that’s interesting. Strange that they would choose Diamond who was under so much suspicion early on in the game. Maybe they figured that Jenny’s attack made her look innocent so decided to get rid of her. The fact that the ranger is still in the picture could factor into why they might not have chosen someone more obvious. I guess we will need to deal with the question toDay of why Azaelia is still alive. I personally still believe that she is innocent, for reasons that I listed in previous posts. It could be a tactic by the wereorcs to get us to question her loyalty. Even though I believe she is innocent, it is probably something we should discuss.

[Findëasëa]

I also wanted to clear something up about my vote yesterDay.


me:
Roa always acts the ‘helpful innocent.’ I am not sure if this is her usual approach, it just seems like a clever way to say a lot without contributing or giving away her opinions.



Roa:
It is my usual approach (some people here can vouch for that) and I was under the impression that I was contributing and stating opinions quite a bit.

Roa: I should have phrased my post a lot better. I didn’t mean that you do not contribute or state your opinions, but that your apparent helpfulness might be a distraction from giving away actual opinions which might put you in a guilty light. Hmm… I still feel like what I am trying to say is not coming out right. The best way I can think to phrase what I mean is that the root of your contributions is not exactly clear to me.

I am sorry if I called you suspicious falsely, but I just didn’t want to risk not saying anything in case my feeling was right.

[Celuien]

Looking briefly at Diamond's posts, here top suspects from yesterday were:
Kitanna
Naria
Legolas in spandex

At the end of yesterday's voting/auto-eviction, only Naria remained alive. If Diamond's suspect list was a factor in her selection, that either means Naria is an Orc who killed Diamond to protect herself, or that Naria is innocent and Diamond was killed to start a lynch Naria bandwagon.

Naria doesn't seem to be a bold sort. So I don't think she would have gone for a suspicion causing bluff (look at me! I can't be an Orc if Diamond was killed - it brings to much suspicion on me) as an Orc by killing Diamond. For that reason, I think Diamond's death points to Naria's innocence.

Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Findëasëa: paleoelfropologist
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy: A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife: aspiring ballad writer

(Apparently confirmed innocents underlined.)

I know that I'm no Orc. So the last two Orcs are to be found among Caran, Nogrod, Grendelien, Findeasea, Naria or Roa. We have a 1/3 chance of catching an Orc today.

What I'm wondering is if it's worth revealing more dreams today. There are still two unrevealed dreams out there. If those dreams are of villagers in that group, then we would improve our Orc catching chances to 50/50. Or would it be better to wait until tomorrow? If we're wrong today and lynch an innocent, we start tomorrow at 5:2 for villagers, so tomorrow is when it's critical that we lynch an Orc.

Of course, our number of unknowns could increase overnight too if Zali or a dreamed-of villager dies. It's up to you who received dreams to decide, I guess.

What does everyone think of this?

[Celuien]

I know that I'm no Orc. So the last two Orcs are to be found among Caran, Nogrod, Grendelien, Findeasea, Naria or Roa. We have a 1/3 chance of catching an Orc today.
Or to clarify, I have a 1/3 chance of catching an Orc, as do the other 4 innocents in that group. The rest of you have a 2/7 chance, which is close enough to 1/3.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

As to dreams, we don't know who has had those unrevealed dreams--One of them could have died with Diamond or Kitanna, and the rest of us would be none the wiser.

As to my innocence, Findeasea--I am your ranger, believe me or not (and I know that you do believe, this is just a general statement, but since you asked...). You can lynch me yourselves, just to be sure, but I wouldn't recommend it--You'd only find out what you already knew about me. Or you can wait for the Orcs to make me a victim. It can't be long now. Frankly, it's making me nervous--why am I still alive?! I shouldn't be here. By all accounts, my dumb mistake of revealing myself should have killed me a long time ago. Surviving one night? A fluke. But two? Well, I'll repeat, it certainly makes me nervous... Am I being played? I'm not offended by people saying that my innocence should be examined--I'd be wondering the same thing...so discuss away, but be aware, it may lead from the path of finding an orc.

I think we need to decide several things today.

1. Innocence of Nogrod, Sleepy, and perhaps, myself, according to some.
2. Why Diamond died last night.
3. What is the Orcs' larger plan?
4. Or is there even one?

I think Diamond must have said something, however small, to make the orcs think her a threat. Or perhaps they were just trying to get around me by steering away from the more obvious choices (which I won't be sharing, obviously--from here on out, there will be no thoughts from me about who is innocent. I don't want to drop any clues for the "sneaky sneaky" orcs.) and picking someone who was already somewhat suspicious. Like I said before, it makes me nervous. I feel like I can't get a handle on what it is we're dealing with, in terms of strategy.

Personally, I want to hear more from Naria...I know this is a bit rediculous coming from a notorious "quiet one", but it's gotten to the point that her quietness is beginning to make me nervous...An unexplained vote (though, granted, she did promise an explanation), no attempt to defend herself--something there just doesn't sit right. I think it's fairly likely that if she posts more today that my suspicion of her will dim somewhat, but I need to hear more. Like the orcish strategy mentioned above, she eludes understanding.

I feel like I'm just repeating myself, so I'm going to stop now, haha.

[Grendelien]

I've been thinking very long and hard about who the possible Shaman could be. I have a thought, based on posts (I'm sorry this is terribly, annoyingly vague, but I think it's crucial to protect the identity of the possible Shaman), and if it turns out to be somehow miraculously correct, I believe the innocence of some unknown villagers may be confirmed.

There would be three remaining ones that I would still be unsure of- Naria, Roa, and Caranlondien.

I'm definitely not going to suspect these three right away, because I know that my thought on who the Shaman is may be very, very wrong, and therefore detrimental to the village. Unfortunately, I won't know if my thoughts are correct unless the Shaman is exposed or killed, and I'd rather be wrong than have that happen. Since I know that I could very well be wrong in my guess, I'm not going to accuse any of the three right away...but I will keep myeye on them.

[Farael]

Indeed, now I'm all yours, my lovely village. Ok, not quite, but at least my times should be a little better.

First of all, a huge thanks to Fowlren for starting the day for me. I just got home, so the day would have started about four hours late if it wasn't for her =)

Second, this day will also be an hour longer to compensate for the late start.

Third, good luck, both wereorcs and villagers! and gifteds and anyone else who happens to be reading this note.

[Caranlondien]

It's late, my time, and I must get some sleep, so I can't post very much right now, but here's a little explanation I wrote whilst twiddling my thumbs overNight…

Please forgive me my playing the "advocate". I just thought we should see something new for a while (all the people have just talked of me, Roa, Diamond etc...).
I hope you didn't think I was truly offended; I understand the need to look at everyone, and I can see how some of my actions, just like everyone else's, can be seen as suspicious if looked at in the right way. When re-reading my response, I can also see how it could easily be read with a much harsher tone than I intended :rolleyes:

Really, I was just reacting to the word "lie". I know this is a game of lying -- I know that two of you are orcs, so two of you are lying to me right now! (Looks around accusingly.) But small lies about facts that everyone's going to go back and check anyway don't make sense as an orcish strategy, and I, at least, have been looking for more substantial reasons to suspect people.

[Nogrod]

This is getting intresting - and I'm getting more afraid every day, for our orcs are no basic-orcs. Sadly, they seem to have intelligence.

I don't think killing Diamond was jumpy or without a very cunning reasoning behind it (so, I don't believe, that Jenny was the "leader"-orc).

But clearly, our ranger (whoever she is) was played fool this night - and I'm very much afraid of the next night, if that indeed is the orc-plan. Then our shaman has some tough choices to make today. And if Zali is our ranger, she has been made to look quite guilty as well. And I think, most of the villagers were beginning to trust Diamond to be innocent, so no bad choice that either: vocal, well-hunched (at least what comes to Jenny), likely innocent - who would not have been protected with high probability. So I'm not so sure, ´whether Diamond's posts help very much. She seems to be just an ideal kill before the real one the orcs are after.

[Nogrod]

I totally agree with Celuien, that we should really start thinking about our chances with some revealments. Two innocent-lynches more, and we are about done with. I quess we can make a mistake today, but not any more tomorrow.

But going on with the calculations by Celuien.

The shaman is alive, and has one dream = two innocents known (or even better: one known innocent and one known orc!)

I had the dream on Sleepy, and know my innocence = two innocents known (and I understand, that you can't take this for granted - just from my point of view, then)

If Diamond (or an orc) wasn't the dreamer (chances: 7/10), we have one more dream from last night = two known innocents (or even better: one known innocent and one known orc!)

Assuming Zali innocent, at least for the sake of an argument, we might have, in the best case, 7 known / believable innocents / orcs! That would leave just two unknowns!

These wouldn't be "granted innocents" to all of us, but somewhat believable to guide our attention: to start taking better look at those not known yet. We would have very very bad luck indeed, if both orcs would be included in this known or believable innocents list! And I guess we have pretty nice chances, that there is no orc on the list - so the orcs are among the 3-4 (5?) unknown?

Of course there are possibilities that make this not so good a plan.

We can't be 100% sure about the dreamers, but we may trust those dreamed of to be what they are. Of course, there is the possibility of an orc jackpot too: an orc receiving a dream about another orc - when that orc really should "reveal" her fellow-orc as an innocent. And I must agree, that you have a reason to apply that possibility to the case of me & Sleepy. Although, as happily the probability for this is quite small, I'm not sure, whether one should go on betting on that option.

Also: the shaman might have had her first dream on me - or the one receiving the dream last night. That would reduce the number of known / believable persons with one.

So, what to do?

I would think it wise for the dreamer to come forth with her dream. It would ease our task to pick the wolf tonight. Our shaman must look at the situation herself, and judge it, as she sees best.

And if by some unprobable twist of the situation, Zali would be just a ranger impersonator, our real ranger probably should come forwards quite soon, pointing to Zali's orcishness. If an orc would try to twist this revealement, we would be killing innocent Zali tonight, but getting the orc tomorrow, and I don't quite think, the orcs would like to be reduced to one at this point of the game. And anyhow, I'm quite positive about Zali's innocence, so this probably isn't something we should be very much afraid of.

[Nogrod]

Triple-posting! :smokin:

I hope you didn't think I was truly offended; I understand the need to look at everyone, and I can see how some of my actions, just like everyone else's, can be seen as suspicious if looked at in the right way. When re-reading my response, I can also see how it could easily be read with a much harsher tone than I intended :rolleyes:


I think no-one should be offended, as this is - after all - just a game. :p But no, I didn't think you were harsh, just reacting - as anyone (me included) probably would, when seeing a somewhat twisted analysis on one's posting...

Using the word "lie" was probably a bit strong choice, and you are right about the foolishness to use that kind of lies as an orc tactics...

[Nogrod]

Quadruple...

I will cease posting in a minute.

Just that no-one gets me wrong: I'm not saying, that everyone should rush to reveal her knowledge on the double. I'm more likely wishing everyone to see for the wisdom of the "plan" - and more than that, the possible flaws in it. If we agree it is reasonable, we should go for it, if we see problems big enough, we shouldn't.

I'm just afraid, that we very soon will need to take on some more drastic measures, as we are losing ground all the time with no good ideas to go forth with.

[Roa_Aoife]

OOC- I had a small emergency that kept me busy most of yesterday, which is why I'm so late posting today. - OOC

I too was curious to see Sleepy, Celuien, and Zali alive, and Diamond dead. Thinking about it, Nogrod's explaination makes the most sense, which could mean several things.

Sleepy and Celuien are innocent, and the orcs didn't know who Zali our protector would pick to protect, so they killed Diamond (for the reasons listed by Nogrod)

Sleepy and Celuien are innocent, and the orc Zali didn't know who was protected.

Sleepy is innocent, and the orcs Celuien and Zali didn't know if he would be protected or not.

Sleepy is an orc (along with Nogrod), and intended for Zali to Celuien.

Now these are just possiblities. I personally think the dream of Sleepy was true, though Zali's continued life and constant reassertion of her status make me nervous. Not only that, but her continued statement of her surprise is sounding more and more contrived.

And if by some unprobable twist of the situation, Zali would be just a ranger impersonator, our real ranger probably should come forwards quite soon, pointing to Zali's orcishness.

I don't think I agree just yet. The village isn't in such dire straights that we need to sacrifice a gifted. Really, by your own assesment, we seem to be in a rather good position. The presence of the ranger may be keeping the orcs from going after the ones they really want to go after, like Sleepy and Celuien. If Zali isn't the ranger, then the true ranger should stay hidden a little longer. If we lynch an orc today, the reveal would probably wholly uneccessary. If we don't, then, and only then, would I say the ranger come forward.

[Roa_Aoife]

Roa: I should have phrased my post a lot better. I didn’t mean that you do not contribute or state your opinions, but that your apparent helpfulness might be a distraction from giving away actual opinions which might put you in a guilty light. Hmm… I still feel like what I am trying to say is not coming out right. The best way I can think to phrase what I mean is that the root of your contributions is not exactly clear to me.

I am sorry if I called you suspicious falsely, but I just didn’t want to risk not saying anything in case my feeling was right.

Suspecting people is part of the game. (Right now the only person I don't at least midly suspect is Sleepy.) There are no hards feeling over that. I don't understand what you're saying though- I'm contributing, helping the village, definitely stating my opinions, and that makes me more suspicios? By that reasoning, Nogrod and Celuien are also highly suspicious. Please explain why I'm standing out.

Nogrod- I've found another flaw in your plan. What if Diamond was the one dreamt of last night? What if Spawn was the one dreamt of by the Shaman first? That would certainly throw a kink in your plans. For someone who accused Spawn of spreading Orcish propaganda, you seem to come up with a lot of faulty plans yourself.


*pinches self*

Still alive. I didn't expect that at all. I really thought that either Zali or I would be toast last night. Still, it's good to be here.

Why didn't you think Sleepy would die?

I've been thinking very long and hard about who the possible Shaman could be. I have a thought, based on posts (I'm sorry this is terribly, annoyingly vague, but I think it's crucial to protect the identity of the possible Shaman), and if it turns out to be somehow miraculously correct, I believe the innocence of some unknown villagers may be confirmed.

There would be three remaining ones that I would still be unsure of- Naria, Roa, and Caranlondien.

I'm definitely not going to suspect these three right away, because I know that my thought on who the Shaman is may be very, very wrong, and therefore detrimental to the village. Unfortunately, I won't know if my thoughts are correct unless the Shaman is exposed or killed, and I'd rather be wrong than have that happen. Since I know that I could very well be wrong in my guess, I'm not going to accuse any of the three right away...but I will keep myeye on them.

I'm curious to know how you can narrow the list down so far. There have only been four nights, therefore only four dreams. One of those was of an Orc, so that leaves only 3 dreams, another was of Sleepy, so that's 2 to reveal known innocents. One was just the previous night, and the dreamer may not have arrived yet, so you really only have one to go on, from the first day. In regular games, dreams go directly to the seer, and even then, if the seer dies, we can't always interpret their posts properly. If a seer thinks someone is innocent, that doesn't mean they dreamt of them. Likewise, if a seer thinks someone is suspicious, it doesn't make them guilty. So, how, in this game, when the dreams don't necessarily go to the Shaman, are you able to narrow the list so far down, just by figuring out who the Shaman is?

[Sleepy Ranger]

Well I got back from school a long while ago but I haven't posted till yet because the 'Downs was down for me.

I'll probably do a list later but for now, Finde and Grend seem the most orcish to me.
All of a sudden Zali is starting to seem suspicious to me, self-admitted ranger, why is she still alive? Take her out and the orcs would be free to kill who they wish but wait... maybe shes been left alive in hopes that we'd begin to suspect her? I know this has been gone over before but all of a sudden I don't find Zali to be so much the hero she was on Day 2.

First I'd like to address this post made by Grend

Haha, Nogrod, every post you make me very nervous...your posts strengthen the chance of your being innocent or your being an orc, and very, very good one at that. I cannot shake the notion that you are trying (as an orc) to develop bonds with ordinary villagers. You already have Sleepy's trust, because you revealed his innocence, which I believe to be true. Could it be you are just trying to get to me next? I am willing to see you try to support your innocence and, if you really are innocent, to try to come to the realization that I am innocent as well. I can't waste anymore time! I must vote soon.

I've trusted Nogrod since before he had the dream I find this an invalid point. He had no need to develop a bond with me since there already is one, at most posting that just weakened the bond rather than strengthened it and now with Diamond's death I assure you its been severed completely.

And what do you meant 'get me next'? Do you mean Nogrod is trying to get everyone to like him so that nobody'll vote for him? Pardon me but I find this to be an absurd theory. It would take someone very charismatic or really desperate to try something like that, no offence to Nogrod but as I said in ME Idol, you lack the X-Factor. And with the current confusion I'd say its not the orcs who are desperate. Don't get me wrong, Nogrod can put up a convincing arguement but when it comes to making friends of everyone in the village? Is that even plausible?

Now then, back to Finde and Grend. They've been playing rather well and honestly I find them to be suspicious. Grend has seemed eager this whole game and her recent post of minimizing the list of suspects based on what the shaman says just seems weird to me. As Roa stated, even in a normal game its not much better. As for Finde shes just seemed kind of jumpy. On the last Day she relied on JennyHallu to pick who to vote for, now I know that other people did this as well but I didn't find her reasoning to be all that reasonable.

Sorry for the intrusion but heres something about Grend that caught my eye.

Post #313 she states shes reluctant to start a band-wagon. Why? Is it because she a band-wagonning an innocent would draw the wrong attention and she knows that Nogrod is an innocent? (Due to her being an orc) Also, in the post she quoted, Nogrod was suggesting that Caran played a part in it. Could this be one orc coming to the aid of the other?

In the same post she says the she wouldn't want people to vote someone based on her reasons. I just find it weird that someone would openly be so unsure of themselves. At this stage, to me at least, it looked as if she wouldn't vote Nogrod but then later (Post #339) she does vote for Nogrod and says she doubts he'll get lynched. Now she could have just jumped onto the Kitanna band-wagon but she chose to go the safe way and vote Nogrod.

And today (Post #354) it seems that shes dropped all her suspicion for Nogrod. This contradicts with her saying that she wouldn't cross Nogrod off her suspicion list anytime soon. Nogrod said that he'd defend himself tommorrow if they were still alive, however I don't believe thats happened as of yet.

I'd prefer to wait for Nogrod's post before making any more comments on Finde.

There would be three remaining ones that I would still be unsure of- Naria, Roa, and Caranlondien.

I'd also like to say something about this. If you used the shaman as a basis to determine who is innocent and who is not then know this, on Day 2 the only people who didn't have suspicions against me were Nogrod, Roa and Diamond. True nobody had really made any theories against me but note, at a point it would seem that everyone would have been ready to vote for me except for Nogrod, Roa and Diamond.

*pinches self*

Still alive. I didn't expect that at all. I really thought that either Zali or I would be toast last night. Still, it's good to be here.

Oh? The orcs won't kill Zali because (a) she is one of them or (b) her not being dead yet has given rise to some suspicion. As for yourself, I doubted the orcs would go for you just because I made a claim that I believe you're the shaman. I didn't expect them to kill me either but I think they'd prefer to kill a proven innocent.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'd also like to say something about this. If you used the shaman as a basis to determine who is innocent and who is not then know this, on Day 2 the only people who didn't have suspicions against me were Nogrod, Roa and Diamond. True nobody had really made any theories against me but note, at a point it would seem that everyone would have been ready to vote for me except for Nogrod, Roa and Diamond.

Are you saying that Nogrod or myself is the shaman? (Stop doing that- you're going to get someone killed.) I don't think that works quite well. Wouldn't it make more sense for us to dream of you if we thought you were suspicious? Sure, we could think you were innocent, and sent a dream to prove it because everyone was turning against you, but that seems a bit far fetched. And I know Nogrod can't be the Shaman, because last time I saw him as a seer, he was fairly reluctant in coming forward. (Until he was about to be lynched.) He seems to be playing a bit differently this game than usual, which has me worried, but I've noticed he's been toning down his agression lately, so it could just be that. Over all, I'm fairly certain that Nogrod isn't the Shaman.

Now stop theorizing about the Shaman! Honestly, Sleepy, only you could be a proven innocent and still look like an orc. :D

[Caranlondien]

Grend has seemed eager this whole game and her recent post of minimizing the list of suspects based on what the shaman says just seems weird to me.
I was just working on a post about this (not specifically about Grendelien, but more about the general tendency to narrow down the suspect list) when I saw you'd already said it, Sleepy.

What I was going to say is, I'm fine with suspicion coming my way; If it comes down to numbers, I'm willing to die if it means the village will win. But it worries me that we're eliminating other suspects so easily! Right now, the only person whose innocence I'm (almost completely) sure of is Sleepy. I know we have to start somewhere, but narrowing our suspects so drastically looks an awful lot like an orcish tactic to protect an orcish ally.

[Findëasëa]

Roa:
Roa: There are no hards feeling over that. I don't understand what you're saying though- I'm contributing, helping the village, definitely stating my opinions, and that makes me more suspicios? By that reasoning, Nogrod and Celuien are also highly suspicious. Please explain why I'm standing out.

As I stated when I was voting, I think that Jenny probably put a lot of thought into her post in order to shield her wereorc friends. She would probably not have listed four innocents outright. I find it more likely that she has hidden one of her fellow orcs in the list. I already explained why I feel that Nogrod is innocent.

me: I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.

Diamond and Spawn are both obviously innocents. Roa, you are the only one left of the four that I still consider a possible orc. I am using the list given by Jenny as a basis for my argument, and Celuein is not given on this list.

Sleepy:
Sleepy: On the last Day she relied on JennyHallu to pick who to vote for, now I know that other people did this as well but I didn't find her reasoning to be all that reasonable.

I understand that you don’t think my reasoning is solid. I just feel that finding an orc is all about analyzing the little details. If an orc can help it they are not going to leave any convincing evidence. The list left by Jenny probably involved a good deal of thought. I doubt she would have failed to list at least one of the wereorcs.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Diamond and Spawn are both obviously innocents. Roa, you are the only one left of the four that I still consider a possible orc. I am using the list given by Jenny as a basis for my argument, and Celuein is not given on this list.

And this proves what? Maybe JennyHallu left that one orc off the list to throw you off. Have you thought about that?

[Celuien]

Why didn't you think Sleepy would die?
I thought that Zali or I would be more obvious threats to the Orcs than a mere known innocent and thus more likely targeted for eating. So I thought the priority would have gone to killing one of us first.

[Sleepy Ranger]

I thought that Zali or I would be more obvious threats to the Orcs than a mere known innocent and thus more likely targeted for eating. So I thought the priority would have gone to killing one of us first.

You're admitting that you're the Shaman?

[Roa_Aoife]

I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.


Your reasoning here is critically flawed. If you look at the bolded sections, you have completely contradicted yourself. First, you say that it's clever, then you say it's desperate, then you fail to take into account one very large possibility: Let me explain:

Because of how the dreams work, anyone, including an orc, can recieve a dream. It's not that I think Nogrod is lying about having a dream of an innocent Sleepy. I do not, however, think that means he can't be an orc. The move is far from desperate, and is infact quite a clever one, if it is true. You have continually ignored this possibilty. This looks a great deal like one orc trying to cover for another, and I find it disturbing.

[Findëasëa]

Sleepy:
And this proves what? Maybe JennyHallu left that one orc off the list to throw you off. Have you thought about that?

Yes, I had thought of that. Like I said before, I am just trying to use my instincts about what she might have thought to do before she died to guide my theory. I think that any theory that a person might present is subject to different interpretations. I understand you do not agree with my interpretations . I just feel that in this situation Jenny was trying to throw us off by implying that all of the people on that list were innocents. I feel this is more plausible than presenting a list of innocents in the manner she did.

[Celuien]

You're admitting that you're the Shaman?
I refer you to my earlier post on this matter. You're not going to get a flat out yes or no from me unless I'm really backed into a corner for the reason that:
1) if I am, my revealing does the village very little good relative to the help it would give the Orcs.
2) if I'm not, saying so just puts the Orcs back on the trail of the real Shaman.

So my strategy is ambiguity.

I wish you'd stop pushing me on this. :rolleyes:

[Findëasëa]

Roa:
Originally Posted by Fin
I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.

Your reasoning here is critically flawed. If you look at the bolded sections, you have completely contradicted yourself. First, you say that it's clever, then you say it's desperate, then you fail to take into account one very large possibility: Let me explain:

Because of how the dreams work, anyone, including an orc, can recieve a dream. It's not that I think Nogrod is lying about having a dream of an innocent Sleepy. I do not, however, think that means he can't be an orc. The move is far from desperate, and is infact quite a clever one, if it is true. You have continually ignored this possibilty. This looks a great deal like one orc trying to cover for another, and I find it disturbing.


I did not contradict myself. I said it could be a clever ploy outside of the context of the situation that occurred the night before. When I categorize his actions as being desperate I was explaining that in the context of the suspicion that he fell under the evening before, it would be a desperate move to try to win the trust of the other villagers in this very transparent way. This does not seem to suit his style.

I completely understand that he could be an orc that had a dream about sleepy. That is exactly what I am taking into account in the post that you commented on. I am saying that I do not think that it would be likely that he is an orc trying to pass as an innocent by revealing the dream. It would be a transparent act.

[Roa_Aoife]

Obviously it isn't that transparent. You seem to be ready to accept it.

[Findëasëa]

Obviously it isn't that transparent. You seem to be ready to accept it.

My belief in his innocence does not stem from the fact that he revealed the dream, but from the context in which he revealed his dream. Upon analysing the situation I found that it seemed like a bad ploy for Nogrod to, after drawing so much suspicion, draw yet more by coming out with a dream.

[Roa_Aoife]

My belief in his innocence does not stem from the fact that he revealed the dream, but from the context in which he revealed his dream. Upon analysing the situation I found that it seemed like a bad ploy for Nogrod to, after drawing so much suspicion, draw yet more by coming out with a dream.

I don't see how coming out with a dream draws suspicion. It would seem to do quite the opposite. Afterall, I do not suspect Nogrod for the dream, I simply refuse to let it rule him out as a suspect. The fact that you seem so quick to dismiss him is rather disturbing.

[Caranlondien]

My belief in his innocence does not stem from the fact that he revealed the dream, but from the context in which he revealed his dream. Upon analysing the situation I found that it seemed like a bad ploy for Nogrod to, after drawing so much suspicion, draw yet more by coming out with a dream.

Ah, but perhaps an orcish Nogrod might have known the context of his situation would point in his favor... ;)

[Sleepy Ranger]

At the moment Finde seems to be very flimsy to me. That could very be due to having so much to answer to however Grend doesn't really strike to me as innocent either. I wish double-lynchings were there... :rolleyes:

Ahem, anyway, I'll probably be voting for Finde, Grend or Naria again. (The latter only if the other two can get up a very good defense for themselves) I'd like to see Nogrod post a bit more since I've grown a bit suspicious of him. Hes singing the same song we are does he have the same tune?

Is it just me or does Finde seem a bit confused?

[Grendelien]

I'm curious to know how you can narrow the list down so far. There have only been four nights, therefore only four dreams. One of those was of an Orc, so that leaves only 3 dreams, another was of Sleepy, so that's 2 to reveal known innocents. One was just the previous night, and the dreamer may not have arrived yet, so you really only have one to go on, from the first day. In regular games, dreams go directly to the seer, and even then, if the seer dies, we can't always interpret their posts properly. If a seer thinks someone is innocent, that doesn't mean they dreamt of them. Likewise, if a seer thinks someone is suspicious, it doesn't make them guilty. So, how, in this game, when the dreams don't necessarily go to the Shaman, are you able to narrow the list so far down, just by figuring out who the Shaman is?

If the person I believe to be the Shaman really is (although I'm starting to doubt this more and more based on what another villager has been saying), I found posts by this person earlier on that could be interpreted as a revealed dream, thus supporting (but not proving) the innocence of a villager. I cannot go any further about how the other villagers could be tied in to the possible innocence of that villager, because it would be giving too much away to the orcs, and like I stated before, the protection of our Shaman is crucial.

However, I know that the possibility of my being wrong is high. None of us will know who the Shaman is unless revealed, and I'd rather not have that happen...unless later in the game the Shaman has not been killed and knows the identity of an orc. I'm just putting this out there, off to the side just in case the Shaman is revealed. Please don't get me wrong, I know that even if the person I believe to be the Shaman really is, this doesn't prove the innocence of some other villagers...but I believe it could highly support their innocence.

And just to be clear, I wouldn't think to use this theory to narrow down suspects *now,* because that would be very foolish, considering we don't even know who the Shaman is, and my thought of the possible Shaman could be very, very wrong.

I must clear up some things that Sleepy brought to my attention:
I've trusted Nogrod since before he had the dream I find this an invalid point. He had no need to develop a bond with me since there already is one, at most posting that just weakened the bond rather than strengthened it and now with Diamond's death I assure you its been severed completely.

And what do you meant 'get me next'? Do you mean Nogrod is trying to get everyone to like him so that nobody'll vote for him? Pardon me but I find this to be an absurd theory. It would take someone very charismatic or really desperate to try something like that, no offence to Nogrod but as I said in ME Idol, you lack the X-Factor. And with the current confusion I'd say its not the orcs who are desperate. Don't get me wrong, Nogrod can put up a convincing arguement but when it comes to making friends of everyone in the village? Is that even plausible?

Obviously Nogrod would not be able to win over the trust of every innocent villager, if he were an orc, but I do not find it absurd to think that he would want to win the trust of some innocents. At the time, I found him extremely suspicious, suspicious to the point that I could not shake it from my mind that day. My suspicions have dwindled considerably based on his reasoning and his seemingly sincere objective to help the village. Could he be a very good liar? The chance is very likely, and should not be discarded. But right now, he is seeming less suspicious to me, personally.

Post #313 she states shes reluctant to start a band-wagon. Why? Is it because she a band-wagonning an innocent would draw the wrong attention and she knows that Nogrod is an innocent? (Due to her being an orc) Also, in the post she quoted, Nogrod was suggesting that Caran played a part in it. Could this be one orc coming to the aid of the other?

I did not want to start a bandwagon because I knew there is a possibility that Nogrod could be innocent. I certainly would not want to start a bandwagon on an unknown because the possibility of innocence would be forever in my mind...and if he were innocent, I would feel like I mislead my fellow villagers at a time when they could have focused their attention on hunting an orc.

In the same post she says the she wouldn't want people to vote someone based on her reasons. I just find it weird that someone would openly be so unsure of themselves. At this stage, to me at least, it looked as if she wouldn't vote Nogrod but then later (Post #339) she does vote for Nogrod and says she doubts he'll get lynched. Now she could have just jumped onto the Kitanna band-wagon but she chose to go the safe way and vote Nogrod.

I am being openly unsure of myself so that I can be as honest as possible. I am unsure of most villagers, because the arguments supporting their guilt or verifying their innocence are both very strong. I dislike making definite statements, unless 100% sure, because I find it necessary to keep all options open.

Like I stated above, I voted for Nogrod because I found him most suspicious at the time, and found more arguments either strongly supporting his guilt or stongly supporting his innocence. I went with my gut feeling and voted for him because I thought the signs of guilt overrode the signs of innocence.

And why would I jump on the Kitanna bandwagon when I did not find her as suspicious as Nogrod that day?

[Findëasëa]

I obviously have a lot to think about regarding Nogrod's innocence. My arguments do not have completely certain footing, but I am just trying to be as honest as I can about who I suspect and why. I cede the point that perhaps Nogrod imagined that people would assume that people would not suspect a wereorc to come out and divulge a dream so soon after having suspicion cast upon them. I still maintain, however, that Jenny's list is probably of some significance. Unfortunately I need to leave now and will not come back until after the deadline. If you all really feel that I am a threat to the village, by all means kill me. I am willing to sacrifice so the village will benefit. I just ask that you consider other possibilities before lynching on an innocent.

Although Nogrod is no longer assumed innocent in my theories, Roa still stands out on my list of suspects. My reasoning is that Roa only chose to question me about my assumption of Nogrod's innocence after she herself was called suspicious. It might have been a way to distract from the real issue.
++Roa

[Nogrod]

Well, well.

What would you people be talking about, if I wouldn't be playing? :D
(And anyone, really: do you still think it as saving your own butt -tactics to come out in to the open with a dream? hah...)

So reporting in - had a fast glance on what's being said, and will be back after some rereading & thoughts

The first and easy one just to begin with: Roa, you are right, the shaman might have dreamt of Spawn and Diamond. That I hadn't come to think about. My bad... but then again, that's what I asked, to see, whether there would be sense in opening up the game a little - or drastically even. Well, if we miss today, we must do something more radical tomorrow (or just hit right).

PS. And yes Roa: I have been toning down for a quite while already (after the two first games), so I think I'm quite in line with my way of playing today. That can be easily checked - if anyone is that interested... :rolleyes:

EDIT: X-posted with Find

[Nogrod]

This will not be done after rereading - or with very careful pondering (realized, I should write some RPG-stuff first). But as we still have time, I'll thought of just rolling a couple of balls forwards.

The worst scenario: If we make two mistaken lynces, the ratio between villagers and orcs will be 3:2. In this situation, I would call for the dreamer to come and help us (if it wasn't Diamond), for the narrowing down of the possibilities of a mistake, is of the essence now.

Secondly: I just realized, that no-one has suspected Celuien during the whole game! I might be wrong, in thinking that no-one hasn't mentioned her as a suspicious one, but just can't recall any serious accusations. If she is that clever, we should probably look at her doings too? I would hate to die and hear Celuien being the other orc! If we are ready to suspect Zali, why aren't we ready suspect Celuien too?

[Roa_Aoife]

My reasoning is that Roa only chose to question me about my assumption of Nogrod's innocence after she herself was called suspicious.

I've been pointing out that assuming Nogrod's innocense because of the dream is foolishness for sometime. That's nothing new. And if you're going to accuse me, I want to know what reasons you have for that. You said that your only reason was because I was the last possible orc on that list, so I merely pointed out the fallacy of that reason. Once others started pointing out the same fallacy, you backed away from your point, yet continue to give faulty reasons for accusing me. Go back and read. I haven't changed my opinion on the issue in question since it was brought up. Why are you distorting the facts?

[Sleepy Ranger]

Why are you distorting the facts?

Because shes a were-orc! Its staring us in the face, and we all know its true but obviously we're too stupid to see it!

My vote will be up soon since I have to go to bed.

[Naria]

My list of suspects and why:

Caran- She is usually fairly insightful and this time she seems not to be. She is all over the place in her accusations and her voting. She gives poor reasons for her votes(yeah, yeah....I'm one to talk, but this is about her now) and she usually does give good reasons. In her post #286 she suspects Nogrod, Kitanna and Roa, but later down the road she abruptly changes her path and votes for me instead of one of the three she mentions on her list. The reason she gave was really bad too, that she didn't know who else to vote for. What?! She had three suspects, all of a sudden it's a mystery on whom to vote for.

Celuien- I was on the fence about her, but kept her on my suspect list because there was something that is gnawing at the back of my neck. She was playing fairly normal, then Sleepy comes out and proclaims her to be the Shaman....she didn't like the idea at first, but now it looks like she is alot more comfortable with it. Maybe she is an Orc using the Shaman proclamation as a cover.

Gren and Fin- Aah, the newbies. They had a rough start, as to be expected, but went on and faced each question head on with very good reasoning. A little too good....and I doubt that we would be so lucky as to have another sibling helping them out in this game :p . I also doubt that both of them are orcs, One of the above two are probably helping them and that is why Gren and Fin seem to be so helpful.


My innocent list is as follows:

Sleepy- Nogrod dreamt of him

Nogrod- I dreamt of him last Night

Zali- Ranger. Yes she is acting quite weird about it, but I would too if I found myself alive again and again.

Roa- She hasn't done or said anything that has sent any red flags up for me and has been playing as Roa plays.

[Roa_Aoife]

Because I forgot last post:

PS. And yes Roa: I have been toning down for a quite while already (after the two first games), so I think I'm quite in line with my way of playing today. That can be easily checked - if anyone is that interested...

I thought so. You're playing about the same as last game. (Not that that frees you from suspicion, but I have one less reason to.)

Secondly: I just realized, that no-one has suspected Celuien during the whole game! I might be wrong, in thinking that no-one hasn't mentioned her as a suspicious one, but just can't recall any serious accusations. If she is that clever, we should probably look at her doings too? I would hate to die and hear Celuien being the other orc! If we are ready to suspect Zali, why aren't we ready suspect Celuien too?

Very true... How did she manage that? But you still owe us a Devil's Advocate Review on Findeasea. You told us you would yesterDay. Where is it?

Because shes a were-orc! Its staring us in the face, and we all know its true but obviously we're too stupid to see it!

Ah, what a convincing case. :rolleyes: I'm starting to swing this way myself, though.

And thankyou for clearing things up, Grendelien. I still don't quite follow, but I guess you can't explain any further without exposing the Shaman, so I'll accept that response for now.

EDIT: Cross posted with Naria. Nevermind about suspecting Nogrod then. Thank you Naria, even if you are an orc.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Bed-time for me! Anyway I've decided to drop my case against Naria since after going over my posts it seems like a rather silly reason. Once we reach a stage of desperation then mayhap I shall revert back to it. Remember the plan I mentioned yesterDAY? Well toDAYs lynching and toNIGHTs kill will be rather determinal in the success of it! So ye orcses bettah do what I expect ya to or ya gonna be in some beeeeg trouble!

Ahem, don't let me influence what you do since thats another important factor of my plan.

++Findeasea
*crosses fingers*

Lennon help us!

EDIT: Nogrod... friend! You and Naria are the last two orcs, aren't you?

[Nogrod]

Nogrod- I dreamt of him last Night


Well, thanks shaman! And thanks Naria to come up with it! Although this was bad in a sense, that we don't have any new "believable" innocents now. But maybe it is good, that the thing I knew, can be known by you others too... :cool:

= Roa
But you still owe us a Devil's Advocate Review on Findeasea. You told us you would yesterDay. Where is it?


I hadn't either the time or the energy to make it yesterDAY. I'll wrap up my RPG-stuff and get on to it (½+ hour). And I have some similar kind of stuff made on Celuien as well (done during the afternoon (GMT)). I'm coming back soon - and will be popping in every now and then, if something happens meanwhile...

EDIT: X-posted with Sleepy

[Sleepy Ranger]

Honestly, Nogrod... I was just playing. I believe you are innocent.

Don't Know

Caranlondien
Grendelien
Findëasëa
Celuien
Naria (Believe it or not, very clever move for an orc)
Roa_Aoife

Innocent

Zali
Sleepy Ranger
Nogrod

[Grendelien]

I've been reading over the posts, and have an idea who I'm going to vote for..unfortunately, I have class until 6:30 on another campus, so my vote will be very last minute. I'm going to bring my laptop with me and hope the room has wireless internet!

[Caranlondien]

The reason she gave was really bad too, that she didn't know who else to vote for. What?! She had three suspects, all of a sudden it's a mystery on whom to vote for.
Actually, I've been suspicious of just about everyone for the past few days. I listed Kitanna, Nogrod, and Roa earlier as my main suspects. Kitanna's reaction partway through the day convinced me of her innocence, though (I mean, she just about sealed her fate by voting for herself). So here was the situation: voting ending in a few minutes, only just enough players left to save Kitanna, I had to leave, and so couldn't wait for the village to reach a consensus. I didn't want to start a band-wagon to lynch a louder, helpful villager; even though I suspect them more, I'd want to be more careful in lynching them, since if they're innocents, they contribute a great deal to the village. I voted for you, Naria, because you're (self-admittedly) quite quiet and I suspected you more than I did Kitanna.

As for Findeasea, I can't help but continue to see her as a (somewhat clueless) innocent newbie (No offense, Finde!). Somehow I hadn't even noticed Celuien was so effectively flying under the radar, and I'll be more interested to see Nogrod's analysis of her.

[Celuien]

++ ROA

Mostly because of the business with Spawn early on. I wish I had more time to explain, but again, this has been a busy day.

The week before a concert, along with work, just isn't any fun. :(

[Nogrod]

RPG cleared!

Celuien: I hope you will still be sticking around - if we would have some questions for you... :)

[Caranlondien]

Well, so we've two votes for Roa and one for Findeasea:

Findeasea --> Roa (Roa 1)
Sleepy --> Findeasea (Roa 1, Findeasea 1)
Celuien --> Roa (Roa 2, Findeasea 1)

Left to vote:
Caran
Nogrod
Grendelien
Zali
Naria
Roa

Is this list correct?

[Nogrod]

Celuien, I’m again quite baffled about the things you do. You are such careful at times, and then so careless on another times... So it seems, that the time calls for The return of the Devil’s Advocate...


First of all, in #45 You list all the players, according to your suspicions, well almost all the players. Your list has no Jenny (now known and done for orc) in it, even though the numbers are right: Caran in unsuspicious two times...

Then on #67 you say:
I wonder. Should I regret my vote for Diamond?
At the same time, it's an awfully brazen thing for an orc to say.

On the second day you note it would be a bad move to try being a shaman impersonator, then you start talking about your ordoness (#156) and wonder, whether you are still alive the next day (#168) – nice to compare this to #67.

On the third day you firstly downplay Jenny’s posts – and say, the truths, if there are any, will be quite subtle. Then again it has f.ex. turned out, that from Jenny’s “dangerous”-list: Spawn, Roa, Diamond & me, I & we know three to be innocent already – and you weren’t even mentioned in the post(s) (no Celuien!)! If Jenny were listing the innocents, who would be dangerous from an orc point of view, it would have included you too, were you innocent...

From the third day onwards, you have also been defending Naria quite openly. Comparing things again. In #156 you make the second full list of your suspicions (DAY2), having Naria under the title “Really, really don't know”. In the morning (DAY3), you go making a case against Sleepy (not generally known innocent then, but to an orc of course) in #250, saying:
So Sleepy moves to the top of my suspicion list based on day 1. I haven't thought too much about what he's done since then, other than to guess that if he's an orc, Naria is innocent since he went along with Jenny's accusation.
This morning (DAY4) you go on to defend Naria again on #351:
At the end of yesterday's voting/auto-eviction, only Naria remained alive. If Diamond's suspect list was a factor in her selection, that either means Naria is an Orc who killed Diamond to protect herself, or that Naria is innocent and Diamond was killed to start a lynch Naria bandwagon.
Naria doesn't seem to be a bold sort. So I don't think she would have gone for a suspicion causing bluff (look at me! I can't be an Orc if Diamond was killed - it brings to much suspicion on me) as an Orc by killing Diamond. For that reason, I think Diamond's death points to Naria's innocence.
Now earlier you said, that if Sleepy is an orc, Naria is an innocent. As Sleepy turned out innocent, the case might have been left open again? But you will go againg defending Naria (probably a known innocent to an orc). You know, as well as we do, that WW is not so simple, that you can so openly trust someone - even though you had some reasonable grounds for it (and I don't claim you playing simple: far from it, if you are an orc). But it seems a bit odd, that you go on claiming someone's innocence in a dreamer/seer-like fashion.

And what's even more interesting: if people would have started to believe, that you would have had the dream on the night before your first defence of Naria, that would have pointed against my dream - making it look false! That could be exploited maybe tomorrow? Quite nicely weaved, I would say. But happily, Naria (some irony here...?) had the dream of me, and can now somewhat prove my word here.

Lastly this toying with the shaman-stuff. First I was afraid, that you were the shaman – and would be quickly spotted by the orcs. Then I kind of started to believe, that you were making a casual shaman impersonation – and being quite a brave ordo in doing it as offering yourself to the orcs. But just now I have started to think, that whether this vague posture of yours is a disguise towards us villagers, and not towards the orcs?

Well. That's the Devil speaking (against possible orcs? :rolleyes: ). I'm not myself so sure, what to make of this. But I would like to hear your assessments...

[Caranlondien]

Celuien certainly looks suspicious. She isn't here, is she? I'd like to hear a defense from her...

(Celuien's) list has no Jenny
Would an orcish Celuien really be so bold, as to leave out one of her compatriots?

My main question is, why is Celuien still alive? (Of course, I remember what happened the last time I asked that question...) Still, if the orcs thought they knew who the Shaman was, wouldn't they go for her (or him)? And, if they thought Zali might get in their way, wouldn't it be better to kill her, too, than to go on like this, trying to cast suspicion on her?

My head hurts from the confusion... Darn you, orcs! :(

EDIT: incorrectly gendered pronoun; sorry, Celuien!

[Caranlondien]

I'm beginning to think that either Zali or Celuien is an orc. The orcs' kills just don't make sense to me...

[Nogrod]

Celuien certainly looks suspicious.

My main question is, why is Celuien still alive? (Of course, I remember what happened the last time I asked that question...) Still, if the orcs thought they knew who the Shaman was, wouldn't they go for her (or him)? And, if they thought Zali might get in their way, wouldn't it be better to kill her, too, than to go on like this, trying to cast suspicion on her?


Certainly looks so. But that's what happens, when you look at people that way... :smokin:

But I'm also beginning to see the point of your main question better than earlier.

First I thought, that the orcs believed, they had nailed the shaman, and just decided to divert the ranger first (if she could come in between - they surely had sore memories about that), at the same time making her look very suspicious indeed - maybe hoping we would kill her ourselves. And Diamond was a good kill from the orc point of view, and probably safe for them (no rangering to meddle with it).

But really: they risked one more dream with that move too!!! It turned out a dream of me, but it could have turned out a dream of an orc! That would be both bold and confident, to almost being irresponsible orcseying...? How to explain this?

EDIT: X-posted with Caran...

[Caranlondien]

Here's the post I was working on when Nogrod posted his analysis of Celuien.

Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Findëasëa: paleoelfropologist
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy: A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife: aspiring ballad writer

I know I'm innocent. I believe the dreams about Nogrod and Sleepy. So the suspects left (for me, at least) are Grendelien, Findëasëa, Celuien, Zali, Naria, and Roa.

Grendelien - It's true that she's playing quite insightfully for a newbie. As I said before, I was once suspected for the same thing, and I was innocent. However, that doesn't mean she is. Now that Nogrod's a confirmed innocent, it does make her attack on him look rather worse, though she's toned that down somewhat.

Findëasëa - As I said earlier, I have a hard time seeing her as anything but a newbie right now, although I'm (of course) still uncertain of her innocence.

Celuien – (See previous posts)

Zali - I just don't see her as bluffing. Unless someone else comes out and says they're the Ranger, I'll believe her.

Naria - She's quiet, doesn't seem to be around much, but when she is, she's quick and to the point. It makes me nervous, but I haven't found anything tangible against her.

Roa - She's been on my suspect list for a while now, and I may end up voting for her. I just need time to digest Nogrod's analysis.

EDIT: cross-posted with Nogrod

[Caranlondien]

Ha, I forgot to go back and change what I said about Zali; I'm still more inclined to believe her innocent, and to suspect Celuien.

[Nogrod]

Grendelien - It's true that she's playing quite insightfully for a newbie. As I said before, I was once suspected for the same thing, and I was innocent. However, that doesn't mean she is. Now that Nogrod's a confirmed innocent, it does make her attack on him look rather worse, though she's toned that down somewhat.


I myself would be careful with that one too. Remember it was not "my attack", but what came about, as I tried to look at her as an orc... It might be of note, that the one doing such an analysis is innocent, but anyhow, I'm not sure it makes the case worse as such (ok., if she'd be someone's fellow-orc, that analyser might have used some sugary words about her, but from that s/he would have been caught immediately...).

[Sleepy Ranger]

I just woke up, its 1am, I see this and something springs into my head. I'll post it and go back to bed so if its flawed then please excuse me.

Last Two Orcs: Grendelien and Naria

This is very short and based entirely on one point, make of it what you will. Naria dreamed of Nogrod, told orc-friend Grendelien. Grendelien immediatly backs off Nogrod.

A bit lame and farfetched but chew on it, toy around, maybe someone can pick something up from here? I won't stop you from voting Roa but in my opinion shes done no wrong.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Nogrod.

[Caranlondien]

I myself would be careful with that one too. Remember it was not "my attack", but what came about, as I tried to look at her as an orc... It might be of note, that the one doing such an analysis is innocent, but anyhow, I'm not sure it makes the case worse as such (ok., if she'd be someone's fellow-orc, that analyser might have used some sugary words about her, but from that s/he would have been caught immediately...).

Good point.

I've been going back over Celuien's posts, and my initial paranoia is calming down a bit. I certainly wouldn't vote for her toDay if she doesn't come back to defend herself (for obvious reasons). This day is lasting an hour later than usual, right? I need to go back over some posts before voting...

I'm still considering voting for Grendelien, Roa, or Naria.

[Roa_Aoife]

I don't know, Nogrod. That list by Celuien may have just been a mistake, typed out by a tired (or otherwise preoccupied) mind. I wish she would have explained her vote for me better though. I dislike unexplained votes, especially from people who normally have very good explanations. The accused can't really answer them, because no suspicions have been listed. This village has gotten into a bad habit of that lately. I blame last minute voting, really. (Honestly people, yesterDay was just rediculous. Poor Farael having to write up that last minute death scene...) I won't press her untill she's present though. It's really unfair to attack people who you know won't be around to defend themselves.

edit: cross posted with a lot....

[Nogrod]

Good point.

I've been going back over Celuien's posts, and my initial paranoia is calming down a bit. I certainly wouldn't vote for her toDay if she doesn't come back to defend herself (for obvious reasons). This day is lasting an hour later than usual, right? I need to go back over some posts before voting...

I'm still considering voting for Grendelien, Roa, or Naria.

I'm thinking about the same concerning Celuien - and some nuts to crack for the orcs too - if she be innocent... :cool:

And yes, I just checked the same myself: one more hour today - so 1½ hours to go.

I'll go back to my Findëasëa-stuff. Interesting...

EDIT: X-posted with Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

This is very short and based entirely on one point, make of it what you will. Naria dreamed of Nogrod, told orc-friend Grendelien. Grendelien immediatly backs off Nogrod.

The problem with this is what Farael told us at the beginning- the dreams come at the very end of the Night, just as the Day starts. There would be no time for Naria to inform Grendelien.

[Sleepy Ranger]

The problem with this is what Farael told us at the beginning- the dreams come at the very end of the Night, just as the Day starts. There would be no time for Naria to inform Grendelien.

Oh, I see. And judging by Naria's posts I doubt there was any sort of code for the two to tell each other this. However, I'm almost certain there'll be a(n) [attempted] orc sacrifice today with the odds of the person doing it being an orc as well. Or else what Naria did would clear her from being an orc when she could very well be laughing her heart out at us, that evil black orc heart.

[Nogrod]

Just wanted to throw this one in too.

If we are having kind of rough times, then the orcses are not having it any more easier either!

They must choose their kill very carefully now, as the ranger is still here - and they got slapped on the face already once. If it is Zali, they might go for her this night. If Zali is a wolf, they will be just driven mad!

But they could choose me, or they could choose Sleepy. And even though Sleepy seems to playing with his left hand now, I know he can be smart and laborous, if he just gets the mood on. So they can't outcount him so easily either...

And the shaman-thing. It's starting to look all the more puzzled for them now, I think. Leads are weak now.

So go on and choose, orcs!

EDIT: X-posted again - with Sleepy, this time (so slow to type? :) )

[Grendelien]

Ok! I'm back! Let me read over things really quickly and post my vote...sorry it's so late!

[Caranlondien]

Lately I've wanted to start every post with "Oy"... because that is how I feel.

I have to leave soon. Unless something happens in the next 10 minutes, I'm voting for Roa.

[Caranlondien]

Grendelien, the Day doesn't end for another hour.

[Grendelien]

Oooooh, bless you Caranlondien...I was having a heart attack. Well, bless you if you're innocent...haha

[Caranlondien]

I hope I'm helping to lynch an orc.

++Roa

[Caranlondien]

Voting so far:

1. Findeasea --> Roa (Roa 1)
2. Sleepy --> Findeasea (Roa 1, Findeasea 1)
3. Celuien --> Roa (Roa 2, Findeasea 1)
4. Caran --> Roa (Roa 3, Findeasea 1)

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Roa, I feel that you are backing me into a corner.

Why do I keep re-asserting that I am the Ranger? Because people like you keep asking, suggesting that I'm not.

Why am I surprised? Because I expected to die long before now.

Fine. This is the last time you'll hear it from me.

I am the Ranger. Believe me or not. You can even lynch me if you like--I have been alive long past my time, by all accounts. Just be aware that if you do kill me, you will only find out what I tried to tell you before.

Cheers.

[Roa_Aoife]

Wow, I leave for 30 minutes and come back to see I'm about to die. I had hoped to give Findeasea more time to defend herself, but if the village lynches an innocent today, we'll be entering into a very dangerous zone. I know I'm innocent, and I'm almost certain Findeasea is an orc.

So,

++Findeasea

[Roa_Aoife]

Zali, I'm sorry if you're offended by my suspicions, but you are a "revealed" gifted who's still living. You can see why that looks extremely questionable. If you are the true protector, and the orcs are just messing with you, then we will find the truth. My only intent is to catch an orc, and if I have to back someone into a corner to do it, then that's what I'll do. Again, I don't intend any offense in this.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Zali, I'm sorry if you're offended by my suspicions, but you are a "revealed" gifted who's still living. You can see why that looks extremely questionable. If you are the true protector, and the orcs are just messing with you, then we know the truth. My only intent is to catch an orc, and if I have to back someone into a corner to do it, then that's what I'll do. Again, I don't intend any offense in this.

I'm sorry if I sounded grumpy... No offence was taken, (I'm rarely offended, and I didn't take anything you were saying as a personal attack). WW games :rolleyes: .

I do understand all the suspicion that I'm under from several directions. I see now the Orcs' plan here...I do expect mostly to die tonight, but if they can keep hoodwinking me and making me look suspicious until you all lynch me, I guess they will. In the same position, I'd probably start questioning the strange person who was claiming to be Ranger, as well.

So yeah. I'm off to review the thread.

[Nogrod]

Case Findëasëa - somewhat evil-eyed...

Somehow all of this could be read as a “developement story”. The first day just two posts (one “in character”, the other the vote), quite confusing to say the least, voting Glirdan for no substance...

On the second day she comes to the fore much more secure – and opening in-depht –analysis on how orcs would work
#176
I have been trying to analyze the information posted today and its significance in discovering wereorcs. If I were a wereorc, I would try as hard as possible to make my image separate from that of my fellows in the minds of the other players. This would be beneficial in that if one were to die the others would not be reveled.

In the end goes to vote Jenny as all is well.

On the third day really shows, that she’s got the hang of it. Is considerate and intelligent. The viewpoint still is that of an orc... and she seems to understand, what Jenny thinks, and how she would act. Also insisiting on her interpretation of Jenny’s post – that would make one of the listed “dangerous” an orc (an orc would know, if Jenny kind of slipped by mistake a clean list)

#266
A wereorc would most likely not want to draw attention to any sort of connections that could exist. Jenny seemed in control in both her earlier posts and the ones she made after she was made aware of her impending death. I doubt she would make this kind of move.

I thought it was interesting that she threw more suspicion upon the quiet members of the group. As was discussed earlier, it would make sense if the orcs wanted to throw suspicion upon those in the village with the most contribution, in order to cripple the village and to leave the quiet members to get picked off with little resistance. Jenny’s accusations, therefore, could point towards a loud orc. I know that the statements that Jenny made after learning about her death were meant to confuse and lead us astray, but, given her skill, it would make sense that she put a good deal of thought into her posts so that it would not implicate her fellow orcs.

In the end votes Roa, because believes Jenny’s list includes one orc, and Roa most suspicious (admitting: no good grounds though).

On the fourth day, continues from orc perspective... careful not to suspect anyone (vice versa), but asking us to think about Zali. The rest of the day was spent defending her suspicions over Roa, her interpretation of Jenny’s list (there is one orc in the list of four – namely Roa), and of her belief of my innocence (started to give in a bit just before Naria’s dream). Votes Roa on the basis of Roa turning the discussion away from her own possible guilt.

So what I see somewhat suspicious is her quick turn to be just another person (has been lectured after the first day?) - and so familiar with both the ways the orcs would work, and what kind of person Jenny is!

But very intelligent indeed - after grasping the way this game is played... So very dangerous as an orc!

[Nogrod]

I admit. That was a tough one - and my energies at quite a low level (2.25AM here). I wouldn't never like to vote someone being a newbie - and too smart, but this kind of has the suspicious levels of it...

Comments?

[Naria]

Well I just have time to get on here and vote. Seeing as Fin is higher up on my suspect list then Roa, I will vote for.

++Findeasea

Hope we catch an Orc today!

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I have no time left--Relatives are here, and I can't devote my full attention to the game today.

So I'm going to vote.

I'm not going to vote for Findeasea, Nogrod, though your post certainly gave me reason to think. I just don't want to get caught into voting for someone because she would be dangerous as an orc--that got Kitanna lynched yesterday.

I'm going to just go with my previous suspicion and vote for Naria. Granted, she came in, described her suspicions, but still, I feel like something isn't sitting quite right.

++Naria

[Nogrod]

Does anyone know, whether Find and Jenny know each other? I'm getting also very wary about this "I doubt she would make this kind of move" and "given her skill" -stuff. She would know, if they had PM'd, otherwise - ragerding this game and Jenny's posts there... probably not being so sure about that - given her apparent intelligence.

[Nogrod]

Sorry. Computer trouble - started jamming. These thing really know when to hit.

++ Findëasëa

Points soon... if comp. works.

[Roa_Aoife]

I hate it when the site goes down.

Nogrod, Fin only has 19 posts total on the downs. 17 of those are in this thread. Extended interaction with Jenny on the Down's isn't possible, and niether have ever mentioned knowing each other outside the downs.

[Grendelien]

I was suspicious of Naria before she revealed Nogrod's innocence, and upon revealing his identity I thought her revelation could be a diversion. However, I began to wonder why, if she were an orc, she would reveal the identity of someone who was under much suspicion himself. It could be that she was protecting the identity of a fellow orc, but I find this highly unlikely. I tend to believe now that Nogrod is innocent. If Naria is an orc, I find it unlikely that she would reveal the identity of an innocent (Nogrod) when he was under suspicion. However, Naria could want to gain some points with innocent villagers. I'll have to think about this more. My suspicion of her has been lowered a bit, so I won't be voting for her tonight.

The points brought up about Celuien in the analyses of her were very interesting. I too must admit that her change in tone is suspicious, but I dont want to vote for her tonight when she's not here to defend herself.

I'm unsure of Findeasea's and Caranlondien's innocence, so I won't vote for them tonight. My suspicion of Roa has not changed, so I am inclined to believe she may be an orc.

++Roa

[Nogrod]

1. Findeasea --> Roa (Roa 1)
2. Sleepy --> Findeasea (Roa 1, Findeasea 1)
3. Celuien --> Roa (Roa 2, Findeasea 1)
4. Caran --> Roa (Roa 3, Findeasea 1)
5. Roa --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 2)
6. Naria --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 3)
7. Zali --> Naria (Roa 3, Findeasea 3, Naria 1)
8. Nogrod --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 4)

And if Roa & Naria turn out to be the wolves, well, then I'm an ***...

[Nogrod]

Updated version...

1. Findeasea --> Roa (Roa 1)
2. Sleepy --> Findeasea (Roa 1, Findeasea 1)
3. Celuien --> Roa (Roa 2, Findeasea 1)
4. Caran --> Roa (Roa 3, Findeasea 1)
5. Roa --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 2)
6. Naria --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 3)
7. Zali --> Naria (Roa 3, Findeasea 3, Naria 1)
8. Nogrod --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 4, Naria 1)
9. Grendelien --> Roa (Roa 4, Findeasea 4, Naria 1)

So as Findëasëa got the vote first, she's the one to go...
If she turns out to be a wolf, the shaman might be wise to look at Grendelien next night. Not because of the last moment vote, but because there seems to be a similar kind of learning pattern there...

EDIT: Bold

[Roa_Aoife]

1. Findeasea --> Roa (Roa 1)
2. Sleepy --> Findeasea (Roa 1, Findeasea 1)
3. Celuien --> Roa (Roa 2, Findeasea 1)
4. Caran --> Roa (Roa 3, Findeasea 1)
5. Roa --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 2)
6. Naria --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 3)
7. Zali --> Naria (Roa 3, Findeasea 3, Naria 1)
8. Nogord --> Findeasea (Roa 3, Findeasea 4, Naria 1)
9. Grendelien --> Roa (Roa 4, Findeasea 4, Naria 1)

What happens in a tie?

EDIT: Cross posted with both Nogrod's posts

[Nogrod]

The bold in my last post is the reason, why I was so mad at my computer just jamming-jamming-jamming...

I believe, there is another explanation to Jenny's list - and this "deep knowledge" was just unnatural... My reasons for my vote.

[Roa_Aoife]

I don't thin kit was your computer- for about 10 minutes I couldn't reach the Down's either. The site also went down earlier today. Probably server troubles.

[Farael]

Alright, time is up... as Findeasea was the first to reach the fourth vote, she will be the lynchee

And you know what? shes just a poor ordo. Sorry, Findeasea you had a good game =)

Narration coming up in a bit.

[Celuien]

I'm sorry - I've been pressed for time these last few days. And shifting the end of the day later hasn't helped me any.

I'm not an Orc. Please believe me, and try to see what I've been trying to do since Sleepy gave me an opening by declaring me the Shaman. It's for the village's good. Don't really care if it gets me lynched tomorrow, since my more important purpose will have been acheived by then.

Further explanations will have to wait until tomorrow, since I'm probably already risking a crosspost with Farael. :rolleyes:

[Farael]

As the day wound down, it was time to cast their votes yet again.

Celuien: There is so few of us left… what if we get the wrong person, again?

Nogrod: Fear not, for I am convinced that Findeasea is an orc!

Findeasea: No I’m not

SleepyRanger: That is EXACTLY what an orc would say!

Grendelien: Keep in mind that it’s also what an innocent would say

Azaelia: Wait!! I think Naria is a wereorc!

Caran: What do you know? I think Roa is a wolf!

Nogrod: Orc

Caran Orc, yes.

In the end, it was decided that Findeasea would be lynched by a small margin. No, it’s not a grammatical error, by a small margin it was decided that Findeasea would be lynched using a terrible torturing device. The small margin.

How this machine worked is so terrible and gruesome that no exact records are kept, but this is what modern paleoelfropologists have been able to determine.

The soon to be lynched individual was put into a box. Not just any box, as this box had tiny little slits through which only something as thin as a sheet of paper would be able to pass through. And that is exactly how it worked. The poor victim was kept there as the villagers angrily ran just about any paper they could find through the slits, causing an unfathomable amount of papercuts. This proved fatal after only a few hours, yet by that time about half of the margins of all the papers would be coated in blood. Hence, the “small margin” name.

In any case, Findeasea was put into the small margin and the villagers took to their task. After many a books had been spent, the trashing and screaming stopped from within the box. Caranlondien opened it and her face went pale. “Findeasea” was just an innocent, like any other of us”. She said.

The villagers found the way to their respective homes and locked themselves in for the night.

There are still 2 wereorcs, a Ranger and a Shaman living.
Now living:
Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife aspiring ballad writer

Now dead:
FaraelMod: He dyed… erm I mean died.
GlirdanRepentant werewolf : Choked on an apple. No wonder why werewolves are carnivores.
JennyHalluWereorc: Escaped the village, but could not escape the laws of physics.
Dancing Spawn...: Just a merchant: Trapped on a deathly spider’s web.
Kitanna:The town's gate-keeper: Had a lobotomy performed by an angry woodpecker.
Legolas in spandex: Legolass (A movie-Legolas impersonator): Overwhelmed and or frightened into leaving the village after seeing what had happened to Kitanna
Diamond: Simply a normal, very bad stone cutter - scared to death by orcs
Findëasëa: paleo-elf-tropologist: Lynched by a small margin.

[Farael]

...but I have all the PM's in already and so I will post them here as it's unlikely I'll be here for the end of the day in an hour and a half. Please, don't post until then.

No one has died tonight (yaye villagers!!!)

[Nogrod]

I guess it's day already. And I'm off to sleep. But as Farael announced the "result" of the night early, I have had time to see to my first post. I'll be back somewhat later...

So thank’s Farael for revealing the situation ahead of time - and letting me to sleep!

And what news!!!

Great work ranger, just stupendous!

I must admit, that Zali is looking worse and worse every day she stays alive (so sad to say Zali, if you’re an innocent). It might just be the orc-plan – now backfiring really badly. Today, surely a thing to discuss – and the possible real ranger should start to think her position. Ratio now 6:2, so maybe not today, or then yes. We should look at this one closely today.

Secondly: I feel terribly bad about yesterday, giving the decisive vote to lynch Findëasëa. She really played well! But before I start sprinkling ashes over my head, I would like you to consider a couple of things about Roa. For I’m – unhappily – inclined to believe, that we had two innocents in the deathrow yesterday, and so whichever way I would have voted, would have ended in a disaster like this.

I agree with the many of you, that Roa can be seen as suspicious. We all can be seen (my Devil’s advocate –thing should show it). I’ve had my own suspicions of her as well – and I am not wholly conviced about my thoughts, but just that is the reason, why you others should evaluate them too. Roa is a resourceful player, and is a great asset, if innocent. I have mainly two things to believe her innocent (they are kind of intertwined, the first supporting the other – and in that way, the other giving a small boost of credibility to the first one).

Roa innocent?

The first reason.
Look at the ending of DAY1. After famously calling Sleepy a dork, she starts the thing I have thought over and over again.

So after Diamond came out with her quite peppery – and so loveble – defence, there was the following exchange between me and Roa:

Nogrod #73 11.39PM GMT
Diamond!

It's so nice to see you back as your usual self! My suspicions are dropped immediately... for the time being, of course.

Roa #74 11.42PM GMT
She may not last the day Nogrod. I believe she's in the lead for votes.

And there are three minutes between these posts.

Then just four minutes later, Roa updates the voting list (Diamond and Glirdan both having three votes), and says under it (#76):
Diamond reached 3 first, so she's currently the one slated for death.

Three minutes from the last comes the following Roa #79 11.49PM GMT
With 10 minutes left in the day, Nogrod had better get his vote in.

See the following fact: only people who had voted already + me (not-voted yet), had been carrying the discussion for over an hour already. It was only ten minutes to go, and only one non-voter around (me), and Diamond going to be lynched with drawn votes (because of the “first to get the highest”-rule)

So how does this look to you (especially #79)? To me, it looks like someone, who is genuinely worried about Diamond’s future. All Roa’s posts are sent within 7 minutes.

And if she was “genuinely” (based on hunch etc.) worried about Diamond – she isn’t an orc (as Diamond was an ordo). I know, that Roa can be quite crafty and careful player, but this seems to me just too good – as a cover-operation... (and if no-one else has noticed this but me, then it would clearly have been postured in vain...)

The second reason.
Jenny’s list. I have been quite convinced from the moment Jenny wrote that “Goodbye cruel world – and thank’s for all the fish” –letter, that she wasn’t as careful as she might have been. I know, she can be quite jumpy at certain situations. Maybe the posts following the first one were her attempts to repair what she had fumbled already? All the confusion-making stuff as some kind of repentance? Trying to make right what she had already kind of destroyed in a panicky / sentimental rage?

Then the list of dangerous players would be the list of innocents: Spawn, Diamond, me and Roa (three of those already shown).

To add to this speculation, I have been very thoughtful about that vote on Grendelien, and the add on about the joyful friendship we've been developing. She also accuses Zali quite openly of betraying her – and Zali is alive still – to all our wonder...

So it might also be, that we are not looking for a wolf among people like Celuien or Roa, but have Zali and Grendelien?

I don’t know. Sounds a bit too simplisistic, but somewhat believable: the pieces fit together, at least. I mean Zali’s living and Roa’s innocence both are kind of explained by Jenny’s list, as it coincides with both.

See to them yourselves, and bring forward points for and against my interpretation..

[Caranlondien]

The Village Times was late in arriving toDay (cough::theDownswasdown::cough), so I haven't been able to go back over the posts since hearing the (quite exciting) news that no one was killed last Night. (Hooray!)

Now, unfortunately, I have to get some sleep, so I'll post my thoughts tomorrow (hopefully I'll have some overnight ;) )

[Naria]

Yay!! Thanks again, Ranger....whomever that may be

I too am getting very worried about why Zali is still alive. I think she may be lying through her rotten little Orc teeth. I mean come on, one night....sure, two nights....maybe, but three nights....tsk, I really doubt that a werecreature would want to carry on wanting to kill villagers and have an obstacle in the way like the Ranger night after night. Yeah, maybe it could have been part of their plan, but I highly doubt that it would go on for this long. I would like to believe that she is the Ranger(and did) but this is just too much to swallow. Since she has already admitted to being the Ranger than it probably won't bother her too much to tell us who she protected last night.


Celuien, if you have something to add please do so toDay....instead of little hints here and there. Those don't help much and in fact they just add to the confusion. It would be great if you could explain this:
It's for the village's good. Don't really care if it gets me lynched tomorrow, since my moreimportant purpose will have been achieved by then.


I know that I am coming off as being rather bold, but I feel that we are running around in circles and will continue to lynch ordos instead of the remaining baddies and that is exactly what they want us to do. Nogrod has some good points and I agree. I don't know about a Zali-Gren duo though, mainly because I want to hear from Zali and give her some benefit of the doubt. But Gren has been sticking out in my mind for a couple of Days now....mostly from the end of the Day comments and her vote placements. I'll wait to hear from them and others before I say more.

[Celuien]

NB: This was written while the ‘Downs was down yesterday, so not all of it is as detailed as I’d like. I’ll write some more about Roa now that I have access to the village records again.

Hurray for the Ranger! A second time!

Nogrod: While possible that Zali is lying about her identity, I still doubt it, despite her longevity as a revealed gifted. Why?

Zali has lived three nights as a revealed gifted. On those four nights, the Orcs attacked
1) Dancing Spawn (nights one and two)
2) Diamond18
3) ?

Now, it is still my belief that Spawn was mistaken for the Shaman on Day 1, and that this was the reason for her being targeted on Night 1, and again on Night 2, when the Orcs knew she could no longer be protected. I’m still unsure why Diamond was killed. As for last night, I think I was the most likely intended victim (for obvious reasons) and was saved by Zali. I admit to appearing very, very Shamanish. Because someone potentially handing out dreams is more dangerous than the Ranger. That would nicely explain both Zali’s surviving the night and the save – I think I’d be a fairly obvious candidate for both death and protection. I really hope that I was the one. It would clear things up immensely today.

By the way, if Zali isn’t telling the truth, today would be a good time for the true Ranger to speak up, considering the ratio of unknowns to wolves (5:2).

If not me, I think it was you, Nogrod. Even if not the Shaman, you’ve been very insightful, and as a now-proven innocent, you make an extremely formidable opponent for the Orcs.

As for Naria, I have my reasons for tending to trust her, although I haven’t dreamed of her. I have my reasons for not saying more. Please bear with me.

As for my own behavior, I know it’s been odd for the past couple of days. But please, humor me for a few hours more. I’ll probably post a full explanation later. But not now, since part of the explanation will depend on whether or not I was the one guarded last night, though I’ll probably explain even if I wasn’t the one.

By dream/Ranger criteria, the last two Orcs are to be found among Celuien, Caran, Roa, Naria or Grendelien. Hopefully, there’s at least one more dream out there to exonerate some of this group.

I know I’m innocent, and, like I said, I have my reasons about Naria (unless something really changes today), so that leaves Caran, Roa, or Grendelien.

I voted for Roa yesterday. This was based largely on what happened with Spawn on day 1. My theorized sequence of events went that Spawn voted for Roa, and was then suspected of being the Shaman and targeted on Night 1, the Orcs being willing to sacrifice one of their number (Roa), to eliminate the Shaman and prevent further incriminating dreams. This continued to neatly explain Spawn’s death on night 2, since her suspicion of Roa waned, and if the Orcs continued to think she was the Shaman, or if they decided to act on the idea that we thought they attacked Spawn the first night in the scenario above, it would actually be less dangerous for Roa since they would now be able to show that Roa couldn’t have been the dream from Shaman-suspect Spawn.


At any rate, I would advocate lynching either Roa, Caran, or Grendelien today. If we make a mistake today, the remaining Orcs will then be identified. And the numbers will go like this:

NOW: 7:2
If incorrect, then
TOMORROW: 5:2
Then we’d know who to get, so we’d end the day at 5:1, start the next day at 4:1 and then win the game.

[Celuien]

Nogrod: Leaving Jenny off that list was purely an oversight on my part. She would have gone into a category of unsures. I wouldn't have been quite so careless to omit her if I were in fact an Orc (and therefore aware that she was one).

I'll now be away for a few hours. If the village comes to a consenus that they want the whole explanation from me today (my strategy is probably running to an end now anyway), I'll give it without waiting for confirmation about last night's events.

[Celuien]

Okay, fine. Naria, if you insist.

I am NOT the Shaman. Just an ordo.

So what have I been up to? At first, I was playing as I normally would and had no intention of trying to pull off any bluffs. Nogrod was the one who first put the idea into my head when he said that my trusting him on Day 1 could have been the sign of my having been the Shaman in receipt of a dream of him. Which led to my 'better me than someone else' comment. I didn't really think of playing this up at all until Sleepy declared me the Shaman. At that point, I figured some sort of discussion of why I could or couldn't be the Shaman would ensue, possibly threatening the true Shaman. Besides, if the Orcs could be persuaded that I was a probable Shaman, I figured they wouldn't go looking too hard for anyone else and I could guarantee at least one extra night of dreaming. Maybe I was wrong on that point, but my other goal was to protect Zali at night. As a revealed Ranger, she is a prime target --- unless that Orcs have a better one: the Shaman. So I took what Sleepy gave me and ran with it, dropping cryptic hints right and left that I don't think our Orcsies could possibly have risked ignoring. My goal was to ensure that the Orcs killed an ordo-me before taking out a gifted Zali (or worse, the real Shaman), at least until there were enough dreams to ensure a village win.

I think I've done that now with two Orcs to be found among five unknowns. We have the Ranger save from last night, which I'm hoping was of me, since that would take another unknown off the list, and one more dream, which probably should be revealed soon. In fact, today might be a good mass revelations day, though any revealing, is of course, left to the discretion of the revealers.

Satsified?

[Celuien]

And finally, my reason for trusting Naria can be boiled down to a simple statement or two. The Orcs have no reason to openly suspect or attack a Shaman candidate during the day because it would like mighty bad for them if I had been the Shaman and they got me lynched. So that makes me a bit more dangerous to attack in the day than your typical ordo. Innocents, however, have every reason to suspect people who are going around and leaving vague, cryptic hints of giftedness, then refusing to follow up on them. So since Naria led off the suspicion of me yesterday, I tend to trust her.

[Sleepy Ranger]

I don't have the time to post a good post right now but I just wanted to tell Celuien that she did a good job playing along. Just a note to everyone, if I really thought she was the shaman I wouldn't have said it.

Also, whoever had the dream please come forward. Alright people, we're in dire straits at the moment. I'm almost certain we'll have more than one person coming forward with a dream, one will be true the other will be a orc calling another orc an innocent or an innocent a orc. I only hope that the dream went to Nogrod again (highly doubted, he would probably have revealed it in his first post) because it didn't come to me. If we're lucky then Zali got it again but I don't know, this will be a very confusing day, mark my words.

[Roa_Aoife]

Celuien, your calculations are misleading. You and Naria are "knowns" only to you. (Though I don't see how attacking a possible Shaman during the day is grounds for trust.... ) Not only that, you are the only person here (so far) who still thinks Zali is a definite known. Rather than just three unknowns, we have six- You, myself, Naria, Zali, Caran, and Grendelien. Hopefully that will change when the dreamer comes forward. But if you're going to help the village, then you have to take our point of view into account. If you're an orc, what more perfect way to dwindle the numbers of the villagers while leaving yourself untouched than to have us believe that we only have three unknowns, that you, conveniently, are not a part of?

EDIT: I will be traveling today, so I will likely not be back on till a few hours before the end. I ask that most voting holds till then (if you can't, then you can't) because I may just have something interesting to say.

[Caranlondien]

Quick stop in, then I have to leave; I'll be back in 4 hours or so.

I, too, think Zali is looking more and more suspicious. And so I agree that if she's not the Ranger, the true Ranger should come forward now.


At any rate, I would advocate lynching either Roa, Caran, or Grendelien today. If we make a mistake today, the remaining Orcs will then be identified. And the numbers will go like this:

NOW: 7:2
If incorrect, then
TOMORROW: 5:2
Then we’d know who to get, so we’d end the day at 5:1, start the next day at 4:1 and then win the game.

Celuien, one thing about your plan; if you and Naria are the orcs, it ensures that you will win! If you're innocent, I'm sorry, but you must see that we don't know you are, unless a known innocent comes forward with a dream about you toDay.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Roa

[Nogrod]

I have a meeting I must attend to. I'll be back with more thoughtful (I hope) discussion in some hours time (six-seven hours before the deadline).

Just a few suggestions, hastily made (everyone should of course trust in their own judgements, but consider these).

Dreamer: come out!

Ranger (if not Zali): really consider coming out! (look below)

Shaman: wait for the two above... consider it then again (if we have even one believable suspect today, it might be best that you remain silent?)


Celuien is looking a bit weird now. F.ex. her Spawn-theory holds only if Zali is the real ranger! So if our ranger is not Zali, the true ranger's revealment of herself might give us two orcs in one (Zali & Celuien)?

Think...

[Celuien]

I very well know that I'm not a known innocent. Nor are Naria or Zali. They merely appear more likely innocent than not to me for reasons I've given.

Honestly, if you think I'm an Orc, go ahead and lynch me. I don't care because the village should still have enough information at this point to win. All you'll find out is that I've been telling the truth.

Waiting on Zali...

[Celuien]

By the way, Roa, I didn't say that I'm a known, nor did I say Naria is a known. I said that from my perspective - since I know that I'm not an Orc - the most likely candidates are you, Caran and Grendelien. That list is purely my opinion, and it happens to be an opinion I believe fairly strongly. So I presented my thought process for how I'm probably going to behave today. Interesting way to twist my post.
Though I don't see how attacking a possible Shaman during the day is grounds for trust
Think about it. Doesn't it look sort of bad to actively try to get a leading gifted candidate lynched? If you're an Orc, you don't want to do that because when the person is either found innocent or gifted, you're going to look very suspicious, so I would have been a bad, bad daytime candidate for an Orc to attack yesteday. On the other hand, it makes sense for an Ordo to question someone who's hinting at giftedness because innocents have cause for concern over imposters. Thus Naria's suspicion of me is grounds for me to trust her. You don't have to buy into the theory yet, but that's where I'm coming from with my suspicions. And it's where I think the village's time would be best spent on analysis.

I thought I explained that hypothesis. :rolleyes:

[Celuien]

Sorry for tripling, but I'm too annoyed and discombobulated to think straight right now.

Please, Ranger, let us know who you guarded last night.

And let me add my voice to those asking for outstanding unrevealed dreams.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I'm sorry I keep living...

But how can I be looking more and more suspicious when I actually managed to do my job last night?

And since you asked, I protected Celuien last Night.

Why do you think that no one else has come forward as the ranger?

Because maybe I am exactly what I say I am.

Lynch me if you dare. I am no orc. You'll only waste time and lose someone who is actually trying to help.

[Grendelien]

First of all, I just want to congratulate the Ranger on another fantasic choice!!
Secondly, I received the dream last night confirming Zali's innocence.

[Grendelien]

Oh, and as a quick follow-up, you can trust Celuien as well...That means we have three known innocents, and one (Nogrod) very likely innocent!

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

And yes, I agree that the dreamers should reveal dreams--We could really use a nudge in the right direction.

I am also annoyed and not thinking too clearly because I find it ironic that when I actually do my job for once, I'm still getting suspicion, suspicion, and more suspicion.

So fine. I'm sick of defending myself because all I'll do is repeat the same old things over and over--the Orcs are doing a good job of discrediting me.

So I'm done defending myself.

I'm done repeating myself.

I'll say again--lynch me if you want, but it will only put you one step closer to losing.

ETA: Cross-posted with Grendelien--Thank you very much :)

[Grendelien]

Ok, assuming Nogrod is innocent, which I believe, we have four unknowns: Roa, Naria, Caranlondien, and myself.

I was very suspicious of Roa at the time of my vote, but I must say that Nogrod's analysis of Roa caused my suspicions of her to dwindle. I went back and looked at some of her posts, and one particularly caught my eye that I hadn't considered before:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sleepy
This is very short and based entirely on one point, make of it what you will. Naria dreamed of Nogrod, told orc-friend Grendelien. Grendelien immediatly backs off Nogrod.


The problem with this is what Farael told us at the beginning- the dreams come at the very end of the Night, just as the Day starts. There would be no time for Naria to inform Grendelien.

This may not be a good reason for thinking her less suspicious...however, I was thinking that why would Roa, if she were an orc, make a post like this when suspicions of me were very high? If she and I were orcs, it would be understandable, but I am not an orc. I don't know if this is a significant quote to use, because anyone could have corrected Sleepy, but the fact that she responded first to his post gives evidence of sincerity...

I'm not going to rule out the possibility that Roa is an orc. Yet, my suspicions of her have dropped. That being said, Caranlondien and Naria are looking most suspicious to me at this point.

[Grendelien]

I found another post by Roa that could be interpretted as being sincere (please, anyone stop me if you think these posts are irrelevant):

Does anyone know, whether Find and Jenny know each other? I'm getting also very wary about this "I doubt she would make this kind of move" and "given her skill" -stuff. She would know, if they had PM'd, otherwise - ragerding this game and Jenny's posts there... probably not being so sure about that - given her apparent intelligence.Nogrod, Fin only has 19 posts total on the downs. 17 of those are in this thread. Extended interaction with Jenny on the Down's isn't possible, and niether have ever mentioned knowing each other outside the downs.

Once again, Roa responds rather quickly to Nogrod's question. Even though she thought Findeasea was an orc and voted for her, she ruled out something that would shine more light on Findeasea's guilt. If Roa were an orc, would she respond to a question that could possibly be further reason to lynch an innocent? It seems, to me at least, that she is trying to answer as truthfully as possible. However, as Nogrod said, Roa could be playing very craftily. It's up for debate.

[Caranlondien]

Wow, I'm glad the Shaman chose to dream of you, Zali! I trust Grendelien's dream, although, of course, that doesn't mean I trust her. So now (I, at least) know that the orcs are among Naria, Roa, and Grendelien. The problem is, when I look at those three, they all look suspicious... but one of them is innocent.

Grendelien makes some good points about Roa, but I still think she's suspicious-looking. She appears helpful, but I can't get much of substance out of her posts. I've been so suspicious of her for the last few Days that I think I'll have to go back over her posts to be fair. As for your latest point, Grend, Roa was actually casting more suspicion on Findeasea by implying that the only way Find would have known about Jenny's style would be through the PMs of wereorcs.

Grendelien looks to be in a good position by revealing the dream and upping the number of known innocents. Could be an innocent truly trying to help, could be an orc hoping the points she earns here will protect her from being lynched. And, depending on Roa's status, she may be defending a fellow orc.

Naria is the one I suspect most right now. Her most recent post seems almost like a set-up for her partner orc to reveal as the "Ranger":
I too am getting very worried about why Zali is still alive. I think she may be lying through her rotten little Orc teeth. I mean come on, one night....sure, two nights....maybe, but three nights....tsk, I really doubt that a werecreature would want to carry on wanting to kill villagers and have an obstacle in the way like the Ranger night after night. Yeah, maybe it could have been part of their plan, but I highly doubt that it would go on for this long. I would like to believe that she is the Ranger(and did) but this is just too much to swallow. Since she has already admitted to being the Ranger than it probably won't bother her too much to tell us who she protected last night.

She also continue to push Celuien on the Shaman-business, perhaps an orcish move to get their Shaman-suspect lynched the after a failed attempt at killing her last night?

My vote toDay may very well be for Naria. Her post prior to toDay's revelations makes me strongly suspect her.

EDIT: replaced "make" with "makes" - subject verb agreement is important!

[Grendelien]

Oh, I interpretted the reply as being that there was no correspondence between Jenny and Findeasea. I see your point now, about PMing.

[Caranlondien]

I also don't know if Grendelien would be so foolish as to connect herself so strongly with a guilty Roa, so I'm not sure that's really a point against her. Unless she's finally making a newbie mistake :P

EDIT: x-posted with Grendelien

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Ok, so now that I've had my mini-rant here (see my last two posts), I feel like I should get down to business.

I think it is highly likely that Naria will be getting a vote from me again toDay. It's not really a retribution for suspecting me so strongly--I'd be put off by her post whether or not its target was me. It would probably be almost funny if I was an orc: I'd be able to smile and perhaps make the part about me "lying through...orc-teeth" my sig line. However, I agree with Caranlodien that her last post does look like a set-up for some other orc to come along and say that they were really the ranger.

And Naria, if you're so convinced I'm an orc, why did you want to know who I protected last night--it's obvious that whatever I say, you can and will use against me.

And about Naria, herself, I think that she is either an orc (most likely) or just very ensnared by orcish plans. She has given a prime example of what everyone else is SUPPOSED to think about me (except that I am confirmed innocent now--thanks, Grendelien).

I'm much more inclined to think she's an orc, though.

[Naria]

First off, I would like to offer my apologies to Zali. We needed to know for sure what was going on and what your role was. Yes you came out and declared yourself the Ranger, but that didn't necessarily mean you were(for sure). Thanks to Gren for saying that yes you are the Ranger, I have no doubts whatsoever now that you are the Ranger.

I also added Celuien in there because I thought that she may be the true Ranger and just beating around the bush about it. I honestly didn't think that she was faking to be the Shaman....her hints came across to me as Rangerish. Now that I know better of the two of you, there will be no more talk from me about this issue. So thanks to both of you for what you have done for the village. :)


I know that I am innocent and implore you all to trust me on this
Nogrod
Sleepy
Zali
Celuien

Then there's just two left(Orcs)
Caran
Gren

Roa, I just don't know about....but I believe her to be innocent.

[Nogrod]

I love the news concerning Zali!
(Purely from villager's point of view, her orcishness revealed, would of course have been "better", but I have kind of trusted Zali so far, so I'm very happy with this)

It's looking far better now, anyhow. Okay, there is this chance of 1/4 x 1/8 =1/32 (? - I'm so terribly bad in probability maths), that Grendelien getting the dream is an orc and Zali another - and that the dream was of Zali. I wouldn't bet on it a penny, or a cent just now. If a rivalling ranger-claim comes forwards, I might think of it - we all should - but before it, I'm taking this as granted from now on. We have under four hours of time, and yet to pick a wolf today.

So I just came back, and have to see the things again...

EDIT: (again...) X-posted with Naria

[Caranlondien]

I have to go eat, and I’ve only gotten through Day 3 on my analysis of Roa (I already analyzed her Day 1 & 2, and I just don’t have the energy to go back through it).

Roa:

[B]Day Three[B]

#237: Wonders why the orcs killed Spawn instead of Zali. Thinks perhaps Jenny didn’t mention any of the other orcs, although maybe she did. Says we can’t be sure that Zali is the Ranger. Says we should go back and figure out why the orcs killed Spawn.

#239: Thinks it’s strange that Nogrod would suggest we don’t try to figure out the orcs’ strategy until toMorrow.

#244: Clarifies that she just doesn’t want us to proceed with the assumption that Zali is innocent. Doesn’t think the true Ranger should come out if Zali is lying. Also thinks we shouldn’t agonize over Jenny’s final posts, as they’ll likely just distract and confuse us.

#245: Says she’s just tossing out possibilities.

#274: Says that just because Nogrod got a dream doesn’t mean he’s innocent. Says Diamond isn’t above suspicion just because Jenny was attacking her.

#289: Lists those who Jenny did not mention (all of whom are now proven innocents except me). Says that from this list, she most suspects Kitanna. Wonders about Zali’s statement that Jenny was too good of a player, since Zali didn’t seem to make much of a case against her.

#290: Lists the vote count, wonders who we haven’t heard from so far.

#293: Summarizes Kitanna’s actions so far.

#294: Analyzes summary on Kitanna. Says she seems careful and she’d like to hear more from her.

#295: Says that only [B]Legolas iS[/U] hasn’t posted yet.

#300: Warns Zali to be careful about what she says, if she really is the Ranger, as the orcs might figure out whom she’s going to protect.

#302: Votes for Kitanna; mistakes closing time as an hour earlier.

#305: Says it doesn’t really matter that she mistook the time, as her opinion probably won’t change.

#309: Asks Grendelien if she has anything to add, since she’s here.

#312: Decries self-voters, saying that if Kitanna truly is innocent, she’d help the village more by trying to prove that than by helping to lynch herself. Says that it actually makes her look more like an orc trying to bluff her way out of dying.

#315: In response to Nogrod’s analysis of Caran, points out that two quotes of mine which Nogrod said are contradictory aren’t.

#318: Responds to Nogrod’s response.

#319: Relists vote count.

#331: Lists those who have already voted.

#333: Urges those left to vote to hurry. (There are a couple more posts like this, so I’ll just leave them out).

#336: Defends herself against Findeasea’s accusations. Says she thinks she has been contributing a great deal.

My thoughts: It’s funny, I only noticed this because in one of her early posts, she asked if she could call me “Caran”, but I noticed that she calls Grendelien “Gren” when no one else has. Perhaps she didn’t feel like typing in the whole name, or perhaps she got used to the “Gren” thing PM-ing the Night before…

What really strikes me, though, is her apparent helpfulness, while she really says very little besides poking holes in people’s theories and generally promoting confusion.

[Roa_Aoife]

Grendelien, how do you know we can trust Celuien?

This is likely the last post I can make today, sorry. (Visiting friends). I don't know if I trust Grendelien or Zali. By all accounts, Zali shouldn't be alive. It's possible that this is just a last chance attempt by the Orcs to protect their own and force the real protector out into the open. Certainly we wouldn't suspect again until it was too late. I urge the village to be careful in trusting these two. Something about this is a little too convenient.

++Zali

I can't believe she would be the real ranger and still alive after this.

Edit: Cross posted with last three.

[Nogrod]

Roa!

You are either too sincere, or then a frustrated wolf. And I really can't say which, for now...

But I must say, that vote of yours looks very suspicious! For your chance of being right seems to be 1/32. Well, that's a chance - and we should not openly outrule it, but still, I wouldn't bet on it...

Must come back to reading this.

[Nogrod]

Btw. Roa (again)

The only good reason to kill Zali tonight is another ranger-revelation. You know that as well as we others know it... So why this vote?

Or maybe it's you two? :D As you see, suspicions are easy to throw at people. I would like to see better. But still, I do not like Roa's sudden vote at all.

I try to make something like a Sherlock Holmes -puzzle, trying to cross-examine different possible pairs. It might take a while, but I'll keep my eye open and see the thread every now and then.

[Nogrod]

Triple posting: Where are you people?

So what do we know now about us people?

Now living:
Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy: A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife: aspiring ballad writer

“revelations” (by):
day1 not known (Shaman)
day2 Jenny –orc (Zali)
day3 Sleepy – innocent (Nogrod)
day4 Nogrod - innocent (Naria)
day5 Zali – innocent (Grendelien)

This looks somewhat trustworthy, as those dreams have criss-crossed each others. There is always the "maybe", but the probability of an orc having a dream of another orc is quite low...

If we would trust the dreamers too (from 3/4 to 2/3 probabilities), it would leave us with the unknowns:
Caran, Celuien, Roa...

As I am kind of “double credited” (shaman wanted to see, whether I was fooling with my revelation). It leaves the situation of the dreamers as Naria being a bit less suspicious than Grendelien – but that’s only mathematics, not anything we should jump for at this point...

But then people getting over each other – or defending them.

There is a nice threesome, that looks quite convincingly innocent to me now (it could be two orcs using an ordo to come along with them, of course).

That is Grendelien – Zali – Celuien.

Celuien’s depiction of her actions match with my suspicions – I thought she was taking the role of a shaman as the situation made it possible (I myself thought of adding to the confusion among the orcs by “revealing” myself as the shaman on DAY4 – I checked, that I could have had a convincing case: Celuien was first on all my innocent-lists DAY1, so that could have been the shaman-hint, if I would have been dead after NIGHT1 – happily or not, Naria’s revealment kind of undid my possibilities of doing it, as no shaman dreams of himself...), and I have tried to back her up ever since. She seems very logical in her twists and turns with this shaman impersonation – and possibly has pulled the leg of those orcs for a couple of times... (killing Diamond as believing her being protected + trying her last night)

She has the theory of orcs going after Spawn the first two nights, because the open suspicion on Roa (by Spawn, that is). That is believable, if what Zali tells us is true, that she defended Spawn the first night. (Btw. she also trusts Naria.)

Zali admitted protecting Celuien last night. If she’s the real ranger, she wouldn’t lie. So if there is no rivalling ranger claim, we should believe her – and thence believe Celuien also... Of course there might be some wolfish thing here, but, wait for Grendelien... (Btw. She is declaring to vote for Naria.)

Grendelien dreamt of Zali last night. Added, that we could trust Celuien as well. Somewhat she is also seeing Roa a bit less suspicious. If she would be an orc, she probably wouldn't have told us about Zali's innocence - had she the dream! An orc, having an innocent dream today, would just have shut her mouth? Or tried to confuse us by being seemingly helpful...

I’ll come with more in a minute (½ hour or something...)

[Celuien]

And since you asked, I protected Celuien last Night.
Thank you, Zali!

(See. I told you all I was was innocent. :p)

If you'll excuse me for about 45 minutes, I just got home from work, and would like to make myself some dinner before immersing myself in village business once again.

Roa continues to be my main suspect, in case you're wondering.

[Nogrod]

If, what I wrote, makes sense...

We have “proven” innocents:
Sleepy: I know that, as I got the PM
Nogrod: dreamt by Naria
Zali: dreamt by Grendelien & giving us a wolf

We might have some reason to believe on the innocence of:
Celuien: reasonable pattern of behaviour, backed by Zali

Somewhat innocent, although a bit unnervingly:
Grendelien: revealing Zali dream – might play also?

Naria: revealing my innocence, first today suspecting Zali & Grend – after revealment leaving both out of speculation, says had seen Celuien as a ranger and played along by suspecting her – trying to cover her path?

Totally unknown = detached from this revelation stuff:
Roa: some good arguments on behalf her innocence (the anxiety over Diamond...), some odd things to have done – f.ex. today: first saying, that she’s traveling today and not back until the last hours + promising to have something interesting to say then. Next call in: vote for Zali + saying visiting friends. If Celuien-theory is right: she's a wolf.

Caranlodien: Played well and intelligently. Today somewhat confusing (might be understandable - I am confused too): First suspects Zali & Celuien's thought of Naria being innocent. Then saying orcs are Naria, Roa or Grendelien (all suspicious) – adding that Grend is not so much so. Next suspecting Roa by the way she addressed Grendelien as Grend just by that and wasked permission to use Caran from her...

[Nogrod]

So my top suspicions at the moment (not reflected through, but now), at the order of suspicion, and at relative distance away from each other...

Naria / Roa


Caranlodien


Grendelien

Relatively assured of innocence:
Celuien

Zali


So the highest is the most suspicious, the lowest the least, regarding the whole list... But really: I don't know about these relative merits, this is just a hunch based on reasoning (=everyone's playing well)

PS. Remember: I may be somewhat skilled in bringing forward points or theories, but my hunches are bad indeed (in four WW-games this far, I have been proven right twice - or three times: and you just wonder the number of cases from which these three must be deducted... :rolleyes: )

[Celuien]

(Lovely, lovely chicken, rice, string beans and garlic bread. :smokin: )

Where was I? Right. I'll borrow Nogrod's format and present my suspect list, in order:

Roa
Caranlondien

Naria


Grendelien

Proven innocent:
Zali
Nogrod
Sleepy
Me (check out the math below)

I'll start out with Grendelien, as my least suspicious un-proven innocent.

Throughout the game, Grendelien has been insightful and helpful. I think revealing the dream to some extent confirms her innocence. I'll posit that an Orc in receipt of a dream about Zali would be hesitant to reveal it (choosing instead to remain silent - no way for us to know who got the dream and was Orcishly holding out even if the Shaman did come forward and list who was dreamt of) because that dream gave two confirmed innocents: Zali and me. There's no way for me to be an Orc if Zali guarded me. And if you want to go with the highly spurious theory that Zali is not what she claims to be, by the way, I'm still exonerated, because that theory requires Grendelien to lie as well, which would make Zali and Grendelien the last two Orcs. All three of us couldn't be lying. But that's probably the nuttiest argument that could be made right now in the abscene of an alternative Ranger claimant appearing at a fairly critical point.

No matter how you slice it, Grendelien's revealing the dream increases the pool of knowns significantly and greatly narrows the field of Orc suspects.

Therefore, because Grendelien narrowed the unknown pool to herself, Naria, Caran and Roa, I find her most probably innocent.

As for Naria, I've already made my case about her. Nogrod and Zali - there's a very good reason for her to have suspected me yesterday, and for her to have voiced suspicion of you, Zali. For that reason, I'm a bit hesitant to vote for her. See if you can work out what that reason is. I'm curious to see if you come to the same conclusion if you work from the idea that she's innocent. I could be all wet, but you never know...

Which leaves Roa and Caran. Actually, besides my process of elimination, the two of them seemed oddly coordinated in their attack on me today. Almost as if they'd worked it out beforehand. Notice that both of them react strongly to my list of remaining unknowns. Of the two, Roa is still my top suspect because of what I said before, and because of this post:

Grendelien, how do you know we can trust Celuien?

This is likely the last post I can make today, sorry. (Visiting friends). I don't know if I trust Grendelien or Zali. By all accounts, Zali shouldn't be alive. It's possible that this is just a last chance attempt by the Orcs to protect their own and force the real protector out into the open. Certainly we wouldn't suspect again until it was too late. I urge the village to be careful in trusting these two. Something about this is a little too convenient.

(plusses removed by me)Zali

I can't believe she would be the real ranger and still alive after this.
As I've said before, it makes no sense at this point for Zali not to be the Ranger. The real one would/should have come forward by now. And how can she seriously continue to imply suspicion of me with that opening question if she also believes that Zali is not the Ranger, and that Grendelien by extension is the second Orc? 3>2.

And so my vote, once again, goes to

++ROA_AOIFE

PS to Sleepy;
I don't have the time to post a good post right now but I just wanted to tell Celuien that she did a good job playing along. Just a note to everyone, if I really thought she was the shaman I wouldn't have said it.
Thanks. I sort of figured that's what you were up to. Quite an inspiration. :)

[Nogrod]

Today's vote:

Roa --> Zali (Zali 1)

Where are you?

Without another ranger's dream, we should not kill Zali... = my voting for someone else wouldn't matter, as Zali has had the first vote...

EDIT: X-posted with Celuien

[Celuien]

Where are you?
Oh, I'm here. Just a slow typer.

[Nogrod]

As we seem to not have seen any rivalling ranger claims, I'm believing the innocence of Zali and by that way, of Celuien (her good argumets were a kind of affirmation to me).

So. Maybe I was wrong with Roa last night (**hatestoadmit**)? Maybe her apparent distress about Diamond's (innocent!) life was just a fake one? I'm not totally easy with this one, but then again, Celuien's (supposedly innocent) theory on Spawn seership would point quite openly to Roa...

Twenty minutes, and wants to hear from you others too.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Roa's last post has me worried...and not just because she voted for me. Maybe I seem a little defensive, but it is, as you all must know, very difficult when you know you are innocent and others just don't see reason.

That said, I am in agreement with Nogrod about the order of my suspicion--My top two are Roa and Naria.

Naria's most recent post looks like a hasty cover-up to me, a quick back-tread in an attempt to avoid suspicion...Something about this doesn't feel quite right.

And I must say that Roa's vote for me lacks decisive proof that Grendelien's dream should not be trusted, and her main reason for lynching me in particular is that I have been alive for too long, and suggests that my continued survival is an orc plot to get the real ranger to come forward.

Well. I think that Roa is playing more dangerously, and I'm still not sure quite how she managed to escape the noose yesterday. So I will be voting for her, unless something changes in the remaining 20 or so minutes we have in the game.

Edited to fix time--my clock is fast.

[Nogrod]

Roa --> Zali (Zali 1)
Celuien --> Roa (Zali 1, Roa 1)

[Nogrod]

Well. I think that Roa is playing more dangerously, and I'm still not sure quite how she managed to escape the noose yesterday.

Well there is an answer to that... I was there, believing Roa's troubledness in front of Diamond being killed. And if she is a wolf - which I'm inclined to believe now. I'll just have to bow to her: wonderful performance!

[Nogrod]

Ok. Why are we hiding?

I'll go for it, and try to make well my last night...

++ Roa

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Ok, my clock is majorly freaking me out--I keep thinking I only have about 5 minutes, so I'm just going to vote now...though I'd like to hear from Sleepy, who hasn't shown up since his early post--this isn't like him.

I'm voting

++ROA

today, for reasons already outlined in my previous post.

And if I'm dead toMorrow, keep an eye on Naria, since I think she's the other orc.

[Grendelien]

Gah! I just got back, I was afraid I wasn't going to make it....are we not voting for another hour? (I always get it wrong)

[Celuien]

And if I'm dead toMorrow, keep an eye on Naria, since I think she's the other orc.
Will do.

Truly great Rangering, Zali. :)

[Nogrod]

I think this is on the normal schedule...

So 9 minutes to go.

[Grendelien]

Oh, and by the way, don't vote for Zali because she's very innocent...I'm sorry my responses are so jerky right now, but my heart's still racing from before!

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

And Nogrod, I agree--everyone is playing exceptionally well this time around.

Cheers to all--to the orcs for running us around in circles for a while

To our shaman--for the consistantly good dream choices

And to the rest of the village--for generally making the best of a difficult situation, and being reasonable, helpful, and consistantly intelligent.

Rock on!

~Your friendly neighborhood ranger, who doubts (for the billionth time) that she'll be alive come morning.

Edit: Cross-posted with Nogrod and Grendelien (whose tense-ness I can completely understand)

[Folwren]

Eight minutes, according to my clock. I'm filling in for Farael. Am I correct to think 6:00 Central Time?

-- Folwren, your over bearing, substitute mod.

[Nogrod]

Oh, Cut the crap, Zali! :D ;)

You have been just superb!

[Celuien]

I think so, Folwren, though I've been a bit confused over deadlines myself recently. :rolleyes:

[Grendelien]

Ok then, since I have very little time I will be as quick as possible and vote

++Naria

[Nogrod]

Eight minutes, according to my clock. I'm filling in for Farael. Am I correct to think 6:00 Central Time?


Just right. Only now its 6 minutes...

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Oh, Cut the crap, Zali! :D ;)

You have been just superb!

Aww, gee thanks, Nogrod...

I was sort of including myself in the rest of the village category.

(And I'm quite surprised how we managed to turn my dumb mistake several nights ago around!) :D

Edit: this particular bit of randomosity has been cross-posted with several people.

[Nogrod]

Roa 3
Zali 1
Naria 1

???

[Grendelien]

Oh, and to quickly add: I hope you're still alive in the morning, Zali! You've played wonderfully!

[Naria]

Sorry sorry I'm late!!

++Roa

I was on the fence about her, but her recent jump on Zali is just dumb :D

Hope we get us an Orc toDay!!

[Nogrod]

Btw. See Naria's last post #460.

Roa out of suspicion! If she turns out an orc, we will have some questions to Naria tomorrow...

EDIT: X-posted with Naria... :eek:

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Thanks, grendelien--I hope all of the innocent people are alive in the morning, but I can't make any promises--I've saved people twice but I've greatly outlived my rightful time.

It's been a good one.

Hope to see you all in the "Morning"

[Folwren]

That's it. No more talking. I'll have it up in less than ten minutes, I imagine.

-- Folwren

[Celuien]

Hope to see you too, Zali.

[Nogrod]

Our prayers go with you! (even us agnostics will do it this time...)

[Caranlondien]

I know it's a meaningless act, but
++Roa

I'm sorry, computer troubles at the most inopportune time...

[Folwren]

The villagers pulled Roa out towards the village square where a tall, bare tree kept watch over them.

Roa: You'll be sorry for this, I swear! You'll all die if you kill me! I'm unwastable...I mean, you'd be wasting a whole day (and a villager) if you kill me!

Nogrod: They all say that.

Zali: Aye, even if they're orcs.

Roa didn't say anything then, not even that he wasn't an orc. The look in his eyes that he cast towards Zali nearly made her tremble in her boots, but not quite. They came to the bare oak and someone produced a rope.

Roa: Don't use that. I'll get rope burn.

The others rolled their eyes. Nogrod took the rope in his hand and made a noose out of one end.

Nogrod: Who shall have the honours?

Roa: No one!! Step back, feinds!

He broke loose from the hands of his captors and bounded off several paces, pulling from beneath his shirt which wouldn't have really hidden anything a long, curved sword.

Roa: I'll cut you up into hamburgers!

Celuien: I don't know what hamburgers are.

The simple comment caught Roa off guard and in that second, Zali drew forth her bow with an arrow already on the string. Roa balked, turned and fled, but no two legged thing - elf or orc, as it turned out - could out run an arrow. Right before the door of one of his many victims Roa fell. From behind him the villagers stood in absolute stillness as they watched the fair elven body turn into one of a hideous orc.

Caranlondien: I'll bury it.


There is still one wereorc, a Ranger and a Shaman living.
Now living:
Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy : A barrel of apples

Now dead:
FaraelMod: He dyed… erm I mean died.
Glirdan: Repentant werewolf : Choked on an apple. No wonder why werewolves are carnivores.
JennyHallu: Wereorc: Escaped the village, but could not escape the laws of physics.
Dancing Spawn...: Just a merchant: Trapped on a deathly spider’s web.
Kitanna:The town's gate-keeper: Had a lobotomy performed by an angry woodpecker.
Legolas in spandex: Legolass (A movie-Legolas impersonator): Overwhelmed and or frightened into leaving the village after seeing what had happened to Kitanna
Diamond: Simply a normal, very bad stone cutter - scared to death by orcs
Findëasëa: paleo-elf-tropologist: Lynched by a small margin.
Roa_Aoife: Wereorc: Shot down by Zali while trying to flee hanging


Day ends. Remaining orc, PM Farael. Ranger and Shaman, do your thing, too.

P.S. I've been informed that Roa is a 'she' rather than a 'he', but when I wrote this, I wasn' t sure and I figured a girl would take less offence at being called a 'he' then a guy would at being called a 'she'. Forgive my laziness, now that I know, for not going back and editing.

[Farael]

Well, sorry guys for not being home... when I started the game I did not think about the little fact that on most Fridays I'm volunteering 'till around 7 30... but today I didn't get home 'till now (2 10 AM)

But then, a HUGE thanks to Folwren for saving me yet again. :)