WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[Nogrod]

“The Noldor came at last far in to the north of Arda; and they saw the first teeth of the ice that floated in the sea, and knew that they were drawing nigh to the Helcaraxë. For between the land of Aman that in the north curved eastward, and the east-shores of Endor (which is Middle-earth) that bore westward, there was a narrow strait, through which the chill waters of the Encircling Sea and the waves of Belegaer flowed together, and there were vast fogs and mists of deathly cold and the sea-stream were filled with clashing hills of ice and the grinding of ice deep-sunken. Such was the Helcaraxë, and there none yet had dared to tread save the Valar only and Ungoliant.”

“The fire of their hearts was young, and led by Fingolfin and his sons, and by Finrod and Galadriel, they dared to pass to the bitterest North; and finding no other way they wandered at last the terror of the Helcaraxë and the cruel hills of ice. Few of the deeds of the Noldor thereafter surpassed that desperate crossing in hardihood or woe. There Elenwë the wife of Turgon was lost, and many others perished also…”

- The Crossing of Helcaraxë as told by J.R.R. Tolkien in “The Silmarillion”

The snowy blizzard was filling their eyes and mouths, forcing them to lean on each other, bending down to resist the onpouring snow. The icy desert cracked and hummed beneath their feet making their misery and anguish even harder to endure. There was only the wind, and the blinding snow and ice all around them.

Elenwë was making her way with her husband Turgon’s household. They were fighting against the storm of frost like all the others. There were no lords or servants here. There was just the Noldor united against the might and the ill-will of the Helcaraxë.

First Elenwë thought she had only imagined it. She thought she heard a faint crack as she took a step. She glanced at her young daughter, Idril, and saw the same fear in her eyes. Others were having similar expressions. Elenwë knew she was not the only one who had noticed the cracking. “Stay calm! Walk carefully, but swiftly. The ice seems more solid over there near Fingon’s host. Let’s try to get there”, Lord Turgon shouted to his household. His words were muffled in the snowy wind.

Cautiosly, the company started to move again. Suddenly a huge gap opened beneath their feet. The grey sea bursted out with a huge roar, splitting a small group of Elves from the others. Many were screaming as they saw their kinsmen fall into the storming water. Elenwë and a couple of other Elves had barely avoided falling to the gap which was now separating them from the host. They were on an ice floe. It started to move.

Many were taken by the grey waters. Idril and Turgon were both with the main host. Elenwë cried out from the floe. Turgon bellowed desperately and was calling others to help in any way they could. Aredhel picked a great elven rope from her package and tried to hurl it to the ones on the floe. It fell short. The rope drifted on the grey waves separating the unfortunate ones from their kin. Galadriel and Finrod Felagund were watching in horror the things unraveling. “I have a bad feeling about this. That was no accident”, Finrod called to his sister Galadriel over the gusting winds.

- The Crossing of Helcaraxë as told by Sinlómien and Nogwë in “The Lost Histories of the Noldor”

[Thinlómien]

The players:
3 werepenguins
1 cobbler
1 seer
1 ranger
1 logical hunter
8 ordinary elves

Werepenguins:
Each Night they choose an elf to kill. The werepenguins may PM with each other during the Night phases. No PMing during the Day. One of them must PM the kill to Nogrod, hopefully one hour before the deadline at least, so that the narration can be in time (we will be flexible with this as there might be timezone problems, but would hope the wp:s could sent their kills in time). The werepenguins win when there are as many wps left as there are villagers – then they are just happy to devour the remaining elves.

Cobbler:
Is an ordinary elf who just wants the penguins to win (affected by them on their journey? :p). S/he will play as an ordo, but wins only if the penguins win. In this game, the cobbler will be seen as the cobbler by the seer when dreamed of, but counted as an ordo in the tallies.

Seer:
Each Night chooses an elf to dream of. The elf’s role will be revealed to the seer. The seer PMs her/his dream choices to Nogrod each night. The seer is on the ordinary elves’ side and wins if the werepenguins are defeated.

Ranger:
Each Night the ranger chooses an elf to protect. The chosen elf can’t be killed by the penguins that Night; the ranger protects him/her. The ranger plays on the ordinary elves’ side and wins if the werepenguins are defeated. The ranger can’t pick the same elf to protect for two Nights in a row.

Logical Hunter:
Picks an elf to hunt whenever s/he wishes to; s/he can change her/his pick whenever s/he wants to. The following rules apply to hunter kills. If the hunter has picked a werepenguin and is killed during the Night, s/he will take the picked wp with her. If the hunter is lynched, her pick will go with her if s/he has voted for the hunter on that particular Day. So the hunter only takes with her/him
a) picked penguins at Night
b) her voters at Day.
The hunter should feel free to reconsider her/his pick at anytime during the game. S/he is not tied to the one pick/Night –rule and s/he doesn’t have to change her pick Nightly. The logical hunter is on the ordinary elves’ side and wins if the werepenguins are defeated.

Ordinary Elves aka Ordinary Villagers:
Have no special activities to perform and win if the werepenguins are defeated.


Miscellaneous Rules:

- The Days and the Nights last 24 hours

- The deadline is 10 PM GMT

- The roles will be revealed upon death

- Everyone has a choice of retracting her/his vote once each Day

- There will be no double-lynches

- If there's a tie, the player reaching the highest vote first is lynched

- There will be no clues in the narrations

- The dead players can’t post on the thread

- No player can use PMs to verify anything they say

- Editing is only allowed to correct spelling/grammar mistakes, to go back and bold/italicize something etc. or to mark cross-posts

- All players must be in the Invisible Mode

- The werepenguins are the only players allowed to PM with each other during the game, but only during the Night phases

- All discussion about RL hindrances etc. should take place in the TiGJ-thread, which we hope all the players would check frequently

- The votes should be cast as follows:

++ Nogrod

(on a separate line, bolded, ++ in the beginning when voting, or -- when retracting a vote)

- Players who don’t post or fail to vote in two days in a row will be removed from the game


All gifted/wp picks will be PMd to Nogrod
All urgent matters/questions please PM to both Nogrod and Thinlómien (basicly we’re working on the same computer and will be logged in as one or the other)

All narrations are written in co-operation so all comments (positive and negative) to both of us, please.

THIS POST IS 13 MINUTES LATE FROM THE ACTUAL HOUR OF THE DEADLINE. 24 hours to Day1.

[Thinlómien]

The ice-floe drifted for a couple of days on the unknown seas. But on the third day of floating the Elves marked something weird in the horizon. There was a flock of strange birds they had never seen before coming towards them. They were elegant in their black and white, incarnations of true beauty. The Elves looked at them in astonishment: those magnificent creatures didn’t fly on air like other birds, but flew in the water swimming with the grace the Elves had never thought possible.

The gallant birds, penguins - as the Men of the later ages called them, but to which the elves had no word for - surrounded the floe and quacked amiably. Those gentle creatures took the floe and started carrying it to a new direction. The Elves were astonished, but let the birds do what they were doing. There was no better choice at the moment. No one dared to touch these magnificient animals whose origin was unknown to them.

As the evening was drawing to a close they noticed an island in the horizon. The penguins were steering the floe determinedly towards it. The island was small, but there was a major building in the middle of it, all lit up and shining for miles away. Eventually they got to the shore as the stars were just starting to glow. The penguins rushed around them and the Elves showed their gratefulness by patting them on the head, stroking, and even hugging them. A few cries were heard since the penguins rewarded some overfriendliness with a sharp peck, but generally the scene was very warm. The penguins started pointing towards the palace in the middle of the island. The Elves thanked their odd guides once more and started to climb the hill to the palace waiting for them up there.

The doors were open. Warm candle light from the great chandeliers welcomed them to an extensive assembly hall. There was no sign of any living creature to be seen. The Master or the Mistress of the house seemed not to be present, but there was an abundant meal set ready for eighteen in the Great Hall to their left. The starving Elves didn’t hesitate, but hurried to the table with passion. All the main courses, fruits and delicacies one could imagine were laid ready: a whole deer filled with pheasants, whole roasted piglets with apples in their mouths, lamb tagine with apricots in a huge bowl, several smoked salmons, shark’s fin soup and turtle broth, steamed artichokes with fennel, tomatoes and beans with ginger, cream and cheese gratinated cauliflower, ostrichs’ tongues, quail’s eggs, frog legs, goose liver, sturgeon caviar, ants in honey, pineapple with mint and caster sugar, prunes and plumes, grapes and kiwi fruits, coconuts, tiramisu, saffron-spiced rice pudding, halva, apple pie with vanilla sauce, truffles, hazelnut brownies... And there was no shortage on beverages either: the finest wines and champagnes, meads and ales of various sorts, freshly squeezed fruit juices, cold spring water and numerous teas flavoured with all imaginable herbs.

“But where is Lady Elenwë?” Valier, the chambermaid, asked in the middle of the meal. All the party had been concentrating on filling their stomachs and no one had noticed that their mistress was gone.

“I saw her in, and my Lady surely entered the house” said Roa_Aoife, Elenwë’s personal guard, “but I haven’t seen her since I saw the meal.”

The others were quite overtaken by the news and started to grow restless. No one could accuse Roa though. They had all been lured by the meal.

“We must find her!” Macalaure, Lord Turgon’s nephew proclaimed.

“We must find who?” asked Dimwë the half-wit, Elenwë’s second cousin.

“She hasn’t used her pot” Kitanna dropped in, looking worried.

“Not here. Master not here” called a strange croaking voice from above them. Everyone tried to spot the speaker. “Look there, it’s a parrot!” shouted Boromir88, the Mouth of Turgon. They glanced up to see the green bird swinging on a perch high, near the roof. There was a moment of silence. “Rooms upstairs. Good night!” The parrot took to its wings and disappeared through the open roof window.

They were all filled and tired and confused. “I think noble ladies know when to get some sleep as well as we simpler ones” said Naria, the goat herder. “Right. Let’s go to sleep” agreed Encaitare, the standard-bearer. The elves were too weary and tired to mind the peculiarity of the situation. They decided to think about it the next day.

There were bedrooms available on the second floor, all made ready to sleep in. They snuggled up in the soft cushions and luxurious linens.

Instantly they all fell into a deep, dreamless sleep.

Little did they know of what would ensue...


Players
Valier - Elenwe's personal chamber maid
Diamond18 - Dimwë the half-wit second cousin of Elenwë
Naria - Family's goat herder
Macalaure - Turgon's nephew and part-time-repentant kinslayer
Lalaith - Aredhel's tutoress
Firefoot- Aredhel's friend
Jenny - An Embroiderer, lost, not related
Roa - Elenwë's personal guard
phantom - Ecthelion's hotheaded nephew and personal squire
Boromir - The Mouth of Turgon
spawn - animals' dung cleaning specialist
Kitanna - servant who empties and cleans chamber pots
Encaitare - A standard-bearer
Anguirel - Lalwende's semi-canonical lutenist and Findis's demi-canonical flautist
Eonwe - Turgon's herald


NIGHT 1 begins now.

Werepenguins PM at will to make your plans until the start of the Day1.
Seer pick your dream and PM it to Nogrod.
Hunter, you may PM Nogrod your choice whenever you wish.

[Nogrod]

It was over midnight and two werepenguins were already assembled in the basement.
“So, we must get rid of the two singer-songwriters tonight”, the Chinstrap said.
“Easy job, I daresay”, answered the Rockhopper.
“Where’s the Emperor, by the way?” asked the Chinstrap.
“Probably taking care of ‘matters of the state’”, the Rockhopper grinned.
“To state the matter, the Emperor’s busy”, chuckled the Chinstrap.
“With the current state of the affairs, I’m not wondering that” the Rockhopper commented.
They both bursted up in laughter.

“The idea was not to wake the whole party with that foolish chuckling of yours” a dry voice interrupted as the Emperor emerged from the shadows.
“Yes, boss” the two smaller penguins agreed.
“Let’s get to the bussiness now. And no tomfoolery, I warn you”, the Emperor said.

Quietly the three took the Bomb and left.

-----------------------------

Instead of sweet birds singing, the elves were waken up by an explosion. They hurried out from their rooms to the place where Thinlómien’s and Nogrod’s rooms should have been, but they saw Nothing.

Actually seeing Nothing for the first time in one’s life is quite a mind-boggling experience. It was most weird, nothing they would have imagined Nothingness to be. It was there in front of their eyes but then, it wasn’t. The two rooms were missing, the doors to them were missing, the ceilings were missing, the beds were missing, the pillows were missing and both Thinlómien and Nogrod were missing too. Everything was missing but Nothing.

There was no trace of Lady Elenwë either.

“There’s nothing there” said dancing spawn of ungoliant, the animals’ dung cleaning specialist.
“Obviously” answered Eonwe, the herald, wryly.
“Except Nothing, of course” snapped in Anguirel, Lalwendë's semi-canonical lutenist and Findis's demi-canonical flautist.
“Did you hear the bang?” asked Firefoot, Aredhel’s friend.
“Yes, it was a Big Bang” answered Lalaith, Aredhel’s tutoress.
“A mighty darn huge Big Bang” put in the phantom, Ecthelion's hotheaded nephew and personal squire.
“Yeah... Hey look! There’s a note on the floor!” called JennyHallu, a lost embroiderer. She picked the note and read it out aloud:

“The Big Bang: Nothing may give birth to something, but that something may end up being Nothing.”

“Breakfast. Downstairs. Breakfast downstairs”, croaked the voice of the green parrot they had encountered last night.

-----------------------------

~ The Dead ~
Nogrod - a troubadour, singer – mod blowed up in the Big Bang on Night1
Thinlómien - a troubadour, harpist – mod blowed up in the Big Bang on Night1

~ The Living ~
Anguirel - Lalwende's semi-canonical lutenist and Findis's demi-canonical flautist
Boromir88 - The Mouth of Turgon
dancing spawn of ungoliant - animals' dung cleaning specialist
Diamond18 - Dimwë the half-wit second cousin of Elenwë
Encaitare - A standard-bearer
Eonwe - Turgon's herald
Firefoot- Aredhel's friend
JennyHallu - An Embroiderer, lost, not related
Kitanna - servant who empties and cleans chamber pots
Lalaith - Aredhel's tutoress
Macalaure - Turgon's nephew and part-time-repentant kinslayer
Naria - Family's goat herder
the phantom - Ecthelion's hotheaded nephew and personal squire
Roa_Aoife - Elenwë's personal guard
Valier - Elenwe's personal chamber maid

Day1 has now begun.

Penguins stop PMing.
Everybody start discussing.

[the phantom]

I knew those beastly little birds were no good the minute I laid eyes on them! I wanted to beat them off the ice, but noooo... you all said "Oh, they're cute, don't hurt them" and "They're just pulling us to safety."

Well, does it look like we're safe now? Ha! The flightless fiends haven't brought us to safety, they've brought us to death. And what's worse, they're making a sport of it, killing us slowly and prolonging the misery.

Birds that can't fly- that is just plain perverse! They are obviously Melkor's handiwork. Only he would do something so ridiculous.

If you'll excuse me, I'm going to have a look around- mainly I'll be looking for those black and white evil-doers. If I find one, I'm going to make a meal out of it, whether you think it's cute or not!

[Roa_Aoife]

Cats, Ducks, Orcs, and now Penguins... what's next? I'm almost afraid to ask. :rolleyes:

I have failed in my duty to protect the Lady Elenwe, and I am greatly shamed for it. I will try to regain my honor by taking revenge on the beasts who harmed my mistress. Now, then, how to catch them?

I'm not one for theory making- I'm better at analysis, but I have nothing really to analyze at the moment. It seems this game will be nice and straight forward, aside from the cobbler. About said cobbler- lynching the cobbler would be no great loss to us earlier in the game when there are many of us. My greatest concern is that the cobbler, rather than getting him/herself lynched, will survive, and lead the village astray, (such as the case of Saucepanman during the attack of the Wereducks.) That said, we should be very careful concerning theories and reasoning, and look very closely for faulty logic or baseless assumptions, especially if someone keeps stating a theory as fact.

Like Big Bangs, etc... ;)

EDIT: Elenwe, not Eonwe- but you have to admit, it's an easy mistake when you're rushed.

[the phantom]

About said cobbler- lynching the cobbler would be no great loss to us earlier in the game when there are many of us. My greatest concern is that the cobbler, rather than getting him/herself lynched, will survive, and lead the village astray
But in order for the cobbler to purposefully lead us incorrectly, he will first have to know which way is correct (i.e. he must know who the WPs are).

But he doesn't know. He's as clueless as the rest of us. He may guess right who the WPs are, but he is just as likely as us to guess wrong, and therefore his leading may actually lead us to a WP, and he may defend an innocent thinking that they are a WP. There's no telling.
That said, we should be very careful concerning theories and reasoning, and look very closely for faulty logic or baseless assumptions, especially if someone keeps stating a theory as fact.
Honestly, there is no reason for an intelligent Cobbler (or WP) to do any of this. It is easily possible to form a good solid theory that incorrectly pegs an innocent as a WP or a WP as an innocent.

The possibilities are endless.

In past villages, my ancestors were able to come up with decent reasoning for why pretty much every single villager was a werecreature.

[Eonwe]

Failed to protect the "Lady Eonwe", huh? I believe you meant "Lady Elenwë". Are we preoccupied a bit there Roa? Maybe thinking of a midnight snack, eh? Well, we'll see about that.

:p

Of course, I'm just joking, and will of course try to make that plain, given my possition on the whole first day shenanigans deal. :p

Both of you are correct about the cobbler. We don't know and he doesn't know, so I say we just leave him alone for now. After all, what really can we do at this point?

All for now, I'll check back in later tonight, hopefully.

[Diamond18]

Never fear! Dimwë is here!

I say we get all of this over with quick and kill

++EOMER! ++EOMER I say! Yar!

Hahahahahahahaha!

Ha.

Ha.

.
.
.

Er, what was that? He's not actually playing? Well pffifle it all. *sigh*


- - EOMER


But I would like to council anyone that if someone by the name of Eomer or Aimé or Hansel or Neil or Bubba should float ashore, we should not only kill him quickly, but in a messy fashion.

Now excuse me whilst I wonder off in a half-wit fashion and get lost in the hallways of this... place.

(OOC: yeah, I wasted my first retraction. But as I will be around at deadline time tomorrow, I don't foresee really needing it. And I needed to get that vote off my chest, where it's been sitting for a week or so and it's got a rather big buttocks so it was getting hard to breathe, you see.)

[Boromir88]

Here ye, Here ye, by order of Lord Turgon, brother of Aredhel and Fingon, son of Fingolfin, and King of Gondolin he sends this message:

I have my utmost confidence that this village can proceed onto victory.
Some may lose their lives along the way,
but their purpose in achieving victory for the innocent will not be forgotten.
Use the talents and gifts that you all are blessed with.
And after the Werepenguins are brought to justice,
there will be rich reward to those who survive.

Signed: Turgon Lord of Gondolin


A note on the cobbler, the biggest set back to having a cobbler would be the confusion he/she could potentially cause. As phantom says there guess as who is a wolf is just as good as any other ordinary villager.

While it is much more beneficial to lynch a werepenguin, getting rid of the cobbler would still be a victory for us. For we will eliminate the WP's ally and not be lynching an innocent villager purposefully trying to catch the wp's.

[Valier]

Well since there's not much to say on the first day I give you my take on everyone...Please don't be offended....just for fun :p :D


Anguirel -He's a sneaky one and I wouldn't put it passed him. He is a little well.... birdy.

Boromir88 - He is definately a Werepenguin..ya I said it!

dancing spawn of ungoliant - Eww she cleans up poo!..I'll keep my eyes on her.

Diamond18 - Very hard to judge at times, but can also be a sneaky baddie.

Encaitare - Hmmmm I don't know

Eonwe - Always so loud with his heralding!! someone to watch.

Firefoot- Friend hey?.....We'll see...

JennyHallu - She's bad to the bone

Kitanna - who cleans chamberpots I ask you? her hands are already dirty

Lalaith - So nice and trustworthy.....or is she?

Macalaure - Hi, I'm Macalaure, you may remember me from such ww games as....Oh wait,I've never met he\she before. newcomers are scary

Naria - Definately bad

the phantom - He's so hotheaded...what else is needed?

Roa_Aoife - She's for sures the E.W. .....Oh ya I mean she's SO bad!!

Valier - Forever doomed to find the bad guys

[Diamond18]

Diamond18 - Very hard to judge at times, but can also be a sneaky baddie.

I wish. :p


JennyHallu - She's bad to the bone

*cough cough* That was my line. :p

I don't really see what the discussion about the Cobbler is here. The Cobbler is bad, and dangerous. Even if they don't manage to figure out who the wolves are an expertly nudge them to victory (a la SpM... and I believe TORE was once a victorious Cobbler, though I didn't read that game, just saw it in the Grimoire) they are a liability and do not have the Elves' well being in mind. If we can kill Werepenguins instead, yay us, but if we get the Cobbler I'll be smiling.

A possible scenario would be for the Seer to dream of the Cobbler, and if/when they reveal, they can just tell us to ignore whatever that person says. :D But as this scenario requires the Seer revealing (and consequently dying) I still think that lynching the cobbler (or laughing when the penguins kill him/her at night) would do us just fine.

[Firefoot]

Our dear leaders Turgon and Elenwe, gone!? Aiee! I say we run around like leaderless chickens with our heads cut off, haphazardly voting and hoping to kill some penguins!!

Er, yeah. Miscellaneous comment of the day. I had to do it.

Concerning the cobbler: the cobbler is only bad if s/he survives to the point where there are an equal number of villagers and WP's excluding the cobbler. That's bad. But right now, I'm definitely not worried about the cobbler. As long as s/he ends up dead somewhere along the way, we're fine. Who knows? The wolves might even kill him/her... the wolves don't know who the cobbler is, either.

Now, who looks guilty...? Roa, obviously not doing a very good job of guarding Elenwe... and phantom the squire isn't doing an outstanding job either...

[Boromir88]

Some quick comments on people so far before I must be off...

Valier and Eonwe are acting too strange to be evil penguins. I don't think wps would act in this manner in the very early goings of the game.

Firefoot brought up useful comment on the cobbler, one which I completely forgot about, seeing as I have no remembrance of a cobbler for a very very long time now. So Firefoot I'm ok with for now, a very logical sensible person to have around.

I can't find much significance in Roa's, phantom's, or Diamond's, posts yet, so there's nothing for me to go off of.

I shall now depart.

[JennyHallu]

Dearies, after some friendly introductions all around, couldn't we focus on finding these incendiary enemies? The cobbler is useless without werecreatures.

And as I can see it, a bomb and a...a...nothing do not point to penguins. Those cute little birds couldn't possibly have made a bomb. I don't know anything about pyrotechnics, but I'm sure it requires opposable thumbs, or fingers, or something.

But perhaps that hotheaded transparent youth knows something we don't. A Freudian slip perhaps? How do you know the penguins are evil? I think he must be one of them.

[Eonwe]

Valier and Eonwe are acting too strange to be evil penguins. I don't think wps would act in this manner in the very early goings of the game.

Haha! Yes but think of the double-bluff implication on that one will you! And don't complain to me if the triple-bluff gets to you. You signed up for this were-penguine expose! :p

[Naria]

Hi everyone! It's been a really long hard day trying to keep those goats in check. I really don't have too many thoughts on the goings on so far and I'm too tired to care right now. I'll be back on around 11 hours or so from now(CST) with hopefully a clearer head. :)

[Macalaure]

So, this is my first Werewolf game and I have to say, I was a little bit nervous. Will I be able to detect a werewolf before they or my fellow villagers kill me?

And I haven't said anything yet and I'm already scary to Valier...

But then I was happy to read what the phantom wrote:


That said, we should be very careful concerning theories and reasoning, and look very closely for faulty logic or baseless assumptions, especially if someone keeps stating a theory as fact.

Honestly, there is no reason for an intelligent Cobbler (or WP) to do any of this. It is easily possible to form a good solid theory that incorrectly pegs an innocent as a WP or a WP as an innocent.

The possibilities are endless.

In past villages, my ancestors were able to come up with decent reasoning for why pretty much every single villager was a werecreature.

So we aren't supposed to think about convincing arguments for our votes but to lynch each other completely at random? That takes a lot of pressure off me, thank you. :p

As I see it, the cobbler's dilemma is, that he first has to detect his wolves and then put together arguments that are exactly contrary to his actual thoughts. Same holds for the Werepenguins themselves, with the advantage, that they can exploit unreasonable behaviour of innocents, whereas the cobbler will fall for this.

The easiest way to protect our selves and make life harder for penguins and cobblers, is to put together convincing, logical arguments for our votes and suspicions. This shoulb be easier to do for us innocents, since we don't have to "make something up".

Well - my thoughts... coulb be bogus... I'm new here.

[Anguirel]

Oh dear, this is not a very positive situation. The confounded penguins seem to have something against minstrels.

Right. Just to be on the safe side, I'm not touching my lute or my flute till those acccursed creatures are all unmasked. And frankly, I don't care if that makes me even less canonical.

So far...

I always like an opportunity to pick a fight with the phantom. Sadly, his two posts so far have been eminently sensible. Penguins are evil and the cobbler will probably try and seem intelligent-unless they're in the more direct suicidal mode. All the same, o kin of Turgon, I do not trust thee. With you it's assuredly guilty till proven innocent.

Eonwe's contribution is slight but to be fair he's low on material at that point.

Diamond, were she not Dimwe Diamond and entitled to a little...skittling, would be still more worrying than she already is.

Valier's behaviour is normal and not that suspicious.

Boromir's first post seems to deliver little helpful thought, but he sometimes takes a while to get into his stride. The last time I accused him on a Day One he turned out to be a Ranger. And his second post is much better.

Firefoot's proposed course of action is the one I shall probably adopt, headless chickenery and all. With Boromir and the phantom she's one I'd fear most as a penguin, but that's no real basis for lynching. Yet.

[the phantom]

We don't need to worry about the Cobbler. We're going to lynch a couple non-WPs during this little adventure, and the WPs are going to be killing non-WPs (obviously) every night, so there's a decent chance that the Cob will bite the dust without any effort on our part.

Not to mention the fact that he counts as a villager in the tally, so he helps us in that way.
Concerning the cobbler: the cobbler is only bad if s/he survives to the point where there are an equal number of villagers and WP's excluding the cobbler. That's bad.
Well yeah, but if that situation comes up a clever villager could preempt the WPs and step forward and claim to be a WP and demand that the Cobbler vote with him. Then perhaps a real WP would step forward to contest the claim? Then it would be up to the Cobbler to decide who was the real WP.

Even if the Cob is the tie-breaking vote, he might not necessarily vote the right way- that is if the remaining villagers are also pretending to be WPs.

Am I explaining that well? I'm really sleepy, so sorry if everything I say is muddled.
How do you know the penguins are evil? I think he must be one of them.
I already explained my logic dearie. Flightless birds are not natural- they border on sickening in my mind. I think they are the handiwork of Melkor, and therefore they are evil.

Anyway, I'll say more later on in the day.

For now, Seer- don't you dare hint about last night's dream in such a way that is recognizable! Wait until at least tomorrow before dropping hints, and try to keep them subtle.

I would recommend that everyone drop a hint of innocence about a fellow villager or two in the following days as if you were the Seer and had dreamed that person innocent. That should make it easier for the Seer to hide.

Giving hints about guilt won't be as good a cover for the Seer, because with these odds it is likely you will hint at the guilt of a non-WP, and so the WPs will quickly cross you off the list of possible Seers.

Oh, and before I go- Spawn is a WP. But she's too pretty for me to vote for right now.

I'll be back later.

[Macalaure]

Now the phantom scares me.



Well yeah, but if that situation comes up a clever villager could preempt the WPs and step forward and claim to be a WP and demand that the Cobbler vote with him. Then perhaps a real WP would step forward to contest the claim? Then it would be up to the Cobbler to decide who was the real WP.

Even if the Cob is the tie-breaking vote, he might not necessarily vote the right way- that is if the remaining villagers are also pretending to be WPs.

In which case he is likely to reveal himself. Then all werepenguins will vote for him and win. It's not forbidden to vote for yourself, is it?
And if he's not tie-breaking, no penguin will bother to sacrifice itself to save the cobbler.



I already explained my logic dearie. Flightless birds are not natural- they border on sickening in my mind. I think they are the handiwork of Melkor, and therefore they are evil.

I always thought they were made by Ossë to please the Tele... wait, yes, they are evil.



I would recommend that everyone drop a hint of innocence about a fellow villager or two in the following days as if you were the Seer and had dreamed that person innocent. That should make it easier for the Seer to hide.

This way nobody benefits of the seer. Then it's better if he remains silent about his knowledge at all.
You really are serious about everybody should giving baseless assumptions. Is there an easier way for the werecreatures to hide?

[Anguirel]

Well...Macalaure, about the seer, you have a point and you don't. If the Seer is killed, it will be clear whose hints we should look at-ditto if they reveal themselves. What the phantom's plan will mean is that we won't be able to act on what we suspect is Seerish advice before a death or revelation...but that hampers penguins more badly than it does us. So all in all, I'm sorry to say that the phantom's plan seems pretty good...

Unless he himself is one of our foes and has already spotted a hint, in which case his proposed strategy is hideously ironic. Urrgh.

Anyway, at this stage I'd rather have no hints at all. We shouldn't be too absorbed in our assets-the Gifted Ones will make themselves known at the right time-instead we should have an eye to our insidious enemies.

Incidentally, phantom old chap, are you still into killing Ordinary Elves on Day One to prevent the accidental lynching of a Gifted? I'm not.

[the phantom]

Then all werepenguins will vote for him and win. It's not forbidden to vote for yourself, is it?
I didn't even consider that option. Personally, I don't think a vote for yourself should count. It's absurd.
This way nobody benefits of the seer.
I see there is a certain concept you aren't grasping. We don't want the village to benefit from the Seer's knowledge early on, because frankly, if the Seer is giving obvious enough directions for the village to follow, the WPs will instantly be aware of the Seer and KILL HIM!!

That's the LAST thing we want.

We want the Seer to survive long enough to dream of a WP (or two) and then take the risk of revealing his identity.
Then it's better if he remains silent about his knowledge
Yes, early on anyway.
You really are serious about everybody should giving baseless assumptions.
Well, what else is there? Villagers know nothing! Therefore a villager cannot possibly make a concrete accusation! The best a villager can do is form theories and analyse voting and posting patterns. You can call this "baseless assumptions" if you wish, but it's the best thing we have until we get our hands on some Seer dreams.

The more dreams, the more information we have, and the only way for the Seer to get lots of dreams is for the Seer to remain hidden for a while.

Get it?
Incidentally, phantom old chap, are you still into killing Ordinary Elves on Day One to prevent the accidental lynching of a Gifted?
Ha ha ha! :D That was one of my finest moments, if I may say so. If you recall, that village did not take my Day 1 advice and as a result lynched their own Ranger.

Tsk tsk.... the phantom should always be obeyed.

(gah, I've really got to go to bed now)

[Anguirel]

At least a lynched Ranger leaves a trail of suspicion. A lynched ordinary volunteer is far more grave in that it leaves little apparent room for analysis. (Vide my lynching in WW XII, kind of, though as it turned out the werecreatures were responsible...)

So I would advocate not repeating that particular strategem.

Right. I said I'd be quiet today due to, er, study of Endorian tongues [Latin] and so I am now going to fade off the scene for a bit.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

This way nobody benefits of the seer. Then it's better if he remains silent about his knowledge at all. I was actually going to suggest something similar to what phantom said. The easiest situation for the ordos is if the Seer can hide themselves among the villagers until they have dreamed of the WPs or many enough villagers in order to guarantee a victory. If we accidentally lynch a couple of innocents along the way because we didn't know who the Seer is, it doesn't matter as long as we can kill every last penguin here.

In which case he is likely to reveal himself. Then all werepenguins will vote for him and win. That's true, and it has happened before. Anyway, even though the Cobbler might be able to come up with some mischief even before that, the penguins are our primary target, so let's try to catch them so that we don't get into that kind of a situation at all.

That's it for now. When I return, I hope to have time to take a look at Firefoot and Roa - and sir Anguirel, perhaps.

[Macalaure]

I see there is a certain concept you aren't grasping. We don't want the village to benefit from the Seer's knowledge early on, because frankly, if the Seer is giving obvious enough directions for the village to follow, the WPs will instantly be aware of the Seer and KILL HIM!!

That's the LAST thing we want.

We want the Seer to survive long enough to dream of a WP (or two) and then take the risk of revealing his identity.

I do grasp that concept. What I don't grasp is your idea that everybody should act seerish at the beginning in order to hide the seer. This will cause a lot of fuss in which the werewolves maybe can hide, too.
The seer should just remain quiet about what he knows until he knows enough.



Well, what else is there? Villagers know nothing! Therefore a villager cannot possibly make a concrete accusation! The best a villager can do is form theories and analyse voting and posting patterns. You can call this "baseless assumptions" if you wish, but it's the best thing we have until we get our hands on some Seer dreams.

But wouldn't it help to do exactly that in a logical manner, as Roa suggested right away, instead of:I would recommend that everyone drop a hint of innocence about a fellow villager or two in the following days as if you were the Seer and had dreamed that person innocent.

Just asking. :confused:

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

What I don't grasp is your idea that everybody should act seerish at the beginning in order to hide the seer. This will cause a lot of fuss in which the werewolves maybe can hide, too. The only people making a fuss about it right now seems to be you. ;) Usually people make cases to defend and accuse their fellow villagers. A couple of Seerish hints here and there doesn't make the situation for the ordos any different because they know to disregard them while the Seer is still alive and they ponder the analyses, but the WPs won't be able to take advantage of that strategy at any point.

The seer should just remain quiet about what he knows until he knows enough. That's for the Seer to decide.

But wouldn't it help to do exactly that in a logical manner, as Roa suggested right away, instead of: Worry not, it's the custom to be as reasonable as possible. The thing is that only the WPs and the Seer in this village know something for sure, but it doesn't stop the rest of us from analysing everything that talks.

Now I'm seriously going.

[Macalaure]

I still don't understand it. *sighs*

Giving seerish hints while not being seer and being as reasonable as possible doesn't mix to me.


But that's why I only joined a Junior game, so never mind. I'll just wait and see... er, read.

[Firefoot]

Well yeah, but if that situation comes up a clever villager could preempt the WPs and step forward and claim to be a WP and demand that the Cobbler vote with him. Then perhaps a real WP would step forward to contest the claim? Then it would be up to the Cobbler to decide who was the real WP.

Even if the Cob is the tie-breaking vote, he might not necessarily vote the right way- that is if the remaining villagers are also pretending to be WPs. The cobbler votes for theirself. Wolf votes with cobbler. Game over. (See WW VII)

[JennyHallu]

Those poor pretty penguins...I just never expected they might be evil! My dear Phantom (which phantom were you, again?), your extensive knowledge of them frightens me, for I know little about anything.

I'm enjoying my nice low-stress existence though...my ancestors have had a viciously evil streak that seems to be skipping the proverbial generation right now.

Come on guys...can't we get past all this Gifted-talk? It makes me terribly nervous. If you start speculating on who's gifted I'll be forced to distribute earplugs so the penguin-cursed on this little isle won't be able to hear you.

Anyway, I think the phantom, Encai, and Valier are looking rather avian.

[Lalaith]

Well, this is all very civilised. After the epic dimensions of the last village I lived in, just a page to be getting on with. In fact, I feel quite up to a post analysis.

Phantom: disses penguins. Second post, answers Roa by pointing out cobbler is clueless. Says it is possible to make up theories about anyone, innocent or guilty.
Third post: don’t worry about Cobbler. That a clever villager could, at crunch-time, fool the Cobbler by impersonating a WP. Tells the Seer not to hint until tomorrow. Asks people to drop hints about innocents to help hide the Seer. Says Spawn is a WP, presumably in jest.
Fourth post: says he hadn't thought of a self-vote, that people shouldn’t be able to vote for themselves. (Tell that to Nilp and Guy!) Continues to explain Seer theory to Mac, that Seer must remain hidden.

Roa: prefers to analyse than theorise. Worries about cobbler, and warns against “faulty logic or baseless assumptions” and people stating theory as fact.

Eonwe: jokes with Roa, and then agrees with both Roa and phantom about Cobbler.
Second post, jokes with Boro about strangeness, points out possibility of double or triple bluffs.

Diamond: jokes, votes for Eomer. I do sympathise…
Second post, talks about the possibility of the Seer revealing the Cobbler by saying “ignore what x says.” (A bit odd – if the Seer was revealing anyway, then simply saying x is a Cobbler should be more straightforward. And for the Seer to reveal for the sake of unmasking a Cobbler seems foolhardy)

Boromir: posts in character but then says odd things. Talks about the confusion caused by the cobber, and also agrees with phantom, that the cobbler doesn’t know anything, but then seems to say it is important to lynch him anyway, which is I think what Roa was saying.
Second post – finds Valier and Eonwe “too strange” to be WPs. Is good with Firefoot because of her Cobbler comment. Sees nothing in the posts of Roa, phantom or Diamond.

Valier – first post is vintage Valier fuzzy logic. It’s early days, of course, but her family are famous for their instincts, if they are innocent…

Firefoot: continues the Cobbler debate. Makes the point (correct IMO) that the Cobbler is only really dangerous when s/he survives towards the end.
Second post: points out (which Mac already did) that Cobbler and wolves could all vote for Cobbler.

Jenny: says Cobbler is useless without the werecreatures. Voices half-jokey suspicions of phantom?
Second post: Keeps talking about phantom’s suspiciousness, and mentions own innocence. Says we should stop talking about gifteds. Says phantom, Encai (who hasn’t posted yet) and Valier are avian.

Naria – checks in to say she’s tired.

Macalaure – points out his nervous newbie status. Interprets Phantom’s post as an invitation to random lynching. Re-opens Cobbler debate, makes quite interesting point about distinction between cobblers and WPs. Thinks the arguments of innocents will be more logical than those of the guilty. Again points to newbie status.
Second post: answers phantom’s point about WP impersonation by saying the WPs could all vote for the Cobbler. (A good answer, actually) Also argues that people shouldn’t impersonate Seer.
Third post: continues to argue with phantom about Seer Impersonation, pleads for logic rather than confusion.

Anguirel – wants to fight phantom, finds him sensible so far but also guilty til proven innocent. Thinks Eonwe’s contributions are slight, Diamond’s are worrying and Valier’s are normal. Thinks Boromir’s first post is unhelpful but his second better. Thinks Firefoot’s headless chicken suggestion is sensible (!?) and fears her most, along with Boromir and phantom, as WP.
Second post: answers Mac’s Seer point, and agrees with phantom – although he remembers phantom might be guilty and thus ironic. Then says he doesn’t want hints at all. Remembers phantom’s “deliberate lynching of innocent” scheme, disagrees with it.
Third post: answers phantom, points out lynched volunteer leaves no trail.

Spawn: Agrees with Seer Impersonation plan. Thinks Mac’s Cobbler point is correct but hopes it won’t come to that.
Second post: argues, but in reassuring way, with Mac. Thinks a few Seerish hints harmless, that while everyone will try to be reasonable only the WPs and Seer know things for sure.

Yet to post: Kitanna, Encataire

This analysis is as much for my benefit as everyone else's. At the moment, I can only presume my own innocence. Looking over it, I'm quite interested in a few things, such as people who seem to be taking up two points of view simultaneously, and Mac's and phantom's interplay. Back for more, later.

[the phantom]

Just dropping in to let everyone know that I won't be around until the very end of the day (last half hour).

Are there double lynchings? If so, I'll be around to make sure one doesn't happen. See ya later.

[Boromir88]

Some interesting discussion we've had since my last visit.

Haha! Yes but think of the double-bluff implication on that one will you! And don't complain to me if the triple-bluff gets to you. You signed up for this were-penguine expose!~Eonwe
The only person I would expect to double-bluff is phantom...and actually I wouldn't put it past Anguirel either. Now that I say that I'm probably going to get double-bluffed out of my mind by everyone I least expected to. :rolleyes:

Ok, so we have three little devil penguins in the village, and 14 villagers, which means approximately 1 wp to 5 innocent. So here goes my process of elimination:

Valier
Diamond18
Naria
Macalaure
Lalaith
Firefoot
Jenny
Roa
phantom
spawn
Kitanna
Encaitare
Anguirel
Eonwe

Like I said before I doubt wp's would be this eccentric and wild in the beginning. So for now there's no reason to suspect Valier.

I wonder if Diamond was making fun of me when in a past village my great grandfather first voted for Saucepan Man, but SpM wasn't even a member of the village. :rolleyes: Oh boy that was fun. Anyway, like Valier seems to eccentric to be a wp. But this I do find odd:
A possible scenario would be for the Seer to dream of the Cobbler, and if/when they reveal, they can just tell us to ignore whatever that person says. But as this scenario requires the Seer revealing (and consequently dying) I still think that lynching the cobbler (or laughing when the penguins kill him/her at night) would do us just fine.
And exactly why would we want the Seer to do that? If someone comes out and says...don't pay attention to this person, then the penguins are going to find the Seer rather easily.

Also, and I'm going to need a mod ruling on this one, if I remember correctly since the Cobbler is an ordinary villager, if the Seer dreams of the cobbler all the seer is told is that person is innocent. Since the cobbler is a villager...just a twisted villager.

Naria I don't know at this point. Naria seems to be one of those silent contributors. Doesn't have to post a lot (unlike me) to have solid input and contribution to the village. I will be expecting to see more substance instead of just, hi I'm tired bye, but in this early going there's no reason to cry penguin.

Macalaure is just catching onto the game, which means he's one of the most innocent looking ones to me so far. His lack of understanding and his objection to phantom's proposal speaks towards his innocence. There's no reason for penguins to attract that much attention to themselves early in the beginning. Seems like he's your ordinary innocent that is trying to help the village.

Lalaith, I don't mind summaries, really I don't see a point...i guess it's more for organization, I'm never going to use it. There's nothing particular that waves a flag for me in Lalaith's post.

Firefoot, if innocent can greatly benefit the village, if penguin would probably be our demise. But we shouldn't lynch a player like Firefoot on Day 1, unless she wants to tell us a little secret that only 2 other people know? :p

Jenny just doesn't sit right with me. Seems like she's trying to squelch conversation and that's all we have on Day 1. Says if we start speculating who is gifted she thinks the penguins will catch on too easily. Now that I see sense in, if someone suspects a gifted, it's best to keep your mouth shut and keep it to yourself. But you see here Miss Embroiderer no one is talking about who is gifted, we are formulating a plan and possible strategies that the gifteds might want to try if they so desire.

Roa there is a common misconception about theories, everyone seems to think it's just baseless and preposterous. Now a true theory is a hypothesis based UPON facts. So, the facts are sitting out there and then based on those facts you form a hypothesis which = theory. And for everybody except the wps and the Seer all we have to find the penguins are theories. Which means taking facts, like what people say, how they vote, who's killed...etc taking that knowledge and using it to present a hypothesis that is backed up by facts (aka a theory).

phantom seems like the normal which leaves me undecided on him right now. He always comes out and talks strategies and plans these crazy schemes that everyone just disregards. So phantom is acting the same, but phantom will play the same whether he be innocent or a devil penguin. So I see phantom and Macalaure's little disagreement as two innocents, phantom proposes a plan and as usual somebody thinks it's crazy. But of the two I would expect phantom to be the penguin.

Spawn backs up and says she was going to say something like the phantom, for everyone to just leave clues on who they feel is innocent. Seems a little fishy to me...trying to associate yourself with an innocent perhaps?

Anguirel, has popped in couple, said his say, nothing strange there.

Eonwe Seems like she's having some Day 1 fun, but I hope that changes from our herald.

Well I think that's everybody and now on "phantom's plan". Now, correct me if I interepretted this wrong, but to me, this sounds like you're proposing all we do is sit and post a couple people to be innocent, name no one you think is guilty, this way the Seer can stay hidden.

Of course the Seer needs to stay alive as long as possible but this can be done without this strategy. Long long time, some 20 mega-zillion years ago my ancestor, the first of my family line to be haunted by wolves (as well as a werebear) was the Seer. And stayed until near the very end when at last revealed himself assuring victory for the village. And I'm reminded of my fathers game not too long ago...ok so my father didn't do so well, but Lommy our seer stayed out of wolf hands and when the time was right revealed herself.

Anyway, what I'm saying is theories, and who we find "guilty" is all we have (excluding the Seer) and that's OUR way of finding penguins. If we just go around claiming who's innocent we have nothing to go off of when it comes to voting, and who knows who'll be lynched. A talented and gifted Seer can effectively stay hidden without having to do this.

[JennyHallu]

I'm not trying to squelch conversation. I'm trying to turn it from fruitless cobbler-and-see talk to penguin catching. I've been in 3 separate villages where an evil villager was lynched on the first day, and I'm the last person you'll see complain about not having much to go on on day 1, especially since I ascribe none of those kills to luck.

I want to figure out who the evil ones are! And you, Boromir, have obliged by moving your focus. Thank you.

That quote from Diamond...I must have missed it. But she knows better! Must reread. Again. I really shouldn't contemplate village (I mean icefloe) matters at the same time as *aHEM* embroidering for my livelihood. I get confused.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Giving seerish hints while not being seer and being as reasonable as possible doesn't mix to me.
It can be just a choice of words or whatever. Ask Boromir because he can seereally how that is to be done. ;) (Just to be clear, I'm referring to an old incident here)

I think I could make a case against every one of you now, but maybe that's not very reasonable considering that many of you have posted only once, so I shall wait until more posts will come.

In the meantime, I'm worried about Ang.

His first post is a noble attempt to make an analysis with minimal amount of material. Maybe a bit too noble, actually.
At that point ten people had posted and he picked six of them (who had posted once or twice) to inspect. All the statements of the villagers contain a positive and negative side, but we don't get any kind of a real conclusion of that. Yes, it's hard to tell, but that hardly provokes discussion and it's something a WP would want to do in order to appear helpful.

-He said that he likes fighting with phantom, but phantom makes sense. Ang is suspicious of phantom until he's proven innocent, but he agrees with phantom's points.
-Ang said that Eonwe hasn't contributed much, but defends him by saying that there's not much material in the village anyway.
-Diamond was worrying, but she could have been more worrying while Boro's first post looks a bit unhelpful, but the second one is better.
-Valier isn't very suspicious because she behaves normally, and Ang agrees with Firefoot although he's afraid that she could be a WP. Still, he doesn't want to lynch her for that - yet.

In Ang's second post he answers Macalaure that the Seer theory has two sides, but phantom's plan seems pretty good unless he is a WP. Next thing he says that he'd rather not have hints at all because we should concentrate on the enemies instead of gifteds. To me the plan isn't about concentrating on gifteds, but trying to distract the WPs while we pay attention to catching them.

He asks if phantom wants to go with his ancestor's plan about lynching volunteers and says that he'd not support the idea.

In his third post Ang just refers to his ancestor and explains why he thinks that lynching volunteers is a bad idea. Well, why to bring it up in the first place, then?

All in all, Ang has been more, well, not necessarily flip-floppy, but careful than what I would have thought. I don't get the usual innocent feeling when reading his posts, and having no certain opinion about anything looks penguinesque, so I look forward to his future posts.


Oh, and what makes Jenny leave Cobblerish hints on purpose, I wonder...


ps. Please, people, read the rules, and you'll find playing much easier. ;)

In this game, the cobbler will be seen as the cobbler by the seer when dreamed of

There will be no double-lynches

[Lalaith]

Yes, I was just going to say that, Spawn (regarding rules...)
Also, interesting what you say about Anguirel - I'm inclined to agree. Ang is usually one of nature's Cobblers but RL pressures might make him less playful than usual.
I agree that Ang should be watched closely - also Di, who can hide much behind the kooky facade, and Macalaure, so keen to emphasise his newbie status and yet able to worst phantom on the cobbler issue.
I am also having bad feelings about my old comrades in evil, Boro and phantom.

[Firefoot]

I'm finding it interesting (not suspicious, necessarily) that already we've had two people try to do full out analyses on everyone (Valier's doesn't really count, I'd expect stuff like that on Day 1)... to be quite honest, I wouldn't have thought there enough material to be worth doing them. For myself, I'm not really seeing anything particularly notable or suspicious yet... Tsk tsk.... the phantom should always be obeyed. When we start doing that, that's probably when you turn up as a wolf... ;)

[Kitanna]

I would recommend that everyone drop a hint of innocence about a fellow villager or two in the following days as if you were the Seer and had dreamed that person innocent. That should make it easier for the Seer to hide.

This is also a good plan because if a non-gifted villager drops a subtle hint on who they think is guilty and turns out to be correct the penquins may kill him/her thinking they had gotten the real seer. Of course we would lose an innocent in the process, but our seer would be intake.
I think phantom's plan is a good one, but if everyone is dropping hints to mask the real seer we have to remember WP are doing it too. They can hide in hint-dropping as well.

Macalaure=I do grasp that concept. What I don't grasp is your idea that everybody should act seerish at the beginning in order to hide the seer. This will cause a lot of fuss in which the werewolves maybe can hide, too.
Yes they can hide too, but think of it this way. We're all dropping hints, the WP's are picking through random hints trying to find our seer, they kill an innocent, another day begins with random hints, they pick another innocent. If they do end up getting the seer we will have hints to look at, a clever seer can make a dream into a hint that is easily decoded. And if we are in danger of lynching the seer one day, they come forward and reveal what they know. That night if the ranger is alive still he/she protects the seer and we are blessed with one more dream. In any case though the WP's can hide like the seer, the pros of phantom's plan outweigh the cons.

Jenny=If you start speculating on who's gifted I'll be forced to distribute earplugs so the penguin-cursed on this little isle won't be able to hear you.
Thus assuming you know who the three cursed are, because I'm pretty sure you don't have earplugs for the whole village. Embroiderers don't make that much... :p

Boromir=
Macalaure is just catching onto the game, which means he's one of the most innocent looking ones to me so far. His lack of understanding and his objection to phantom's proposal speaks towards his innocence. There's no reason for penguins to attract that much attention to themselves early in the beginning. Seems like he's your ordinary innocent that is trying to help the village.
I quite agree, though I'm not a fan of him using his newbie status in his first few posts, I think his speaking against phantom's plan speaks highly of him, at least for today.

Anguirel=
Unless he himself is one of our foes and has already spotted a hint, in which case his proposed strategy is hideously ironic.
I don't think it really benefits a WP phantom to make such a suggestion. He could have picked up a hint, but I highly doubt the seer dropped a hint at this point. Boromir said he doubts phantom would be such a double-bluffer, today I'm inclined to believe that. I think it's too early for a WP to give a plan that so endangers their teammates, but of course I've been wrong about these things before. For right now I lean toward phantom being an innocent, though it may change as the days go on.

Spawn=
His first post is a noble attempt to make an analysis with minimal amount of material. Maybe a bit too noble, actually.
I don't really find a lot of suspicions in Anguirel's first post. He's doing what he can with what he's got. I'd be more concerned with Anguirel jumping on phantom's ideas the way he does. He whole-heartdly agrees with phantom's cobbler and seer ideas without (or it seems to me) really giving thought to what might go wrong with them. Anguirel is a bit suspicious to me, but not overly so. I would like to watch him for a bit.

[JennyHallu]

Thus assuming you know who the three cursed are, because I'm pretty sure you don't have earplugs for the whole village. Embroiderers don't make that much... :p


I'll have to make them from embroidery thread, but luckily my basket seems to have gotten lost with me. *sets to earplug manufacture*

[Diamond18]

Um, okay, I hope all this Werewolf 101 stuff is mostly for the benefit of Mac, because it's seriously boring. Yeah, the Seer wants to say hidden until s/he has gathered enough info to be useful. Yeah, we're probably bound to lynch a few innocents on the way. Yeah, the Cobbler can vote for his/herself. Yeah, some ordo's may want to act Seerish to deflect attention from the real Seer.

Maybe it's the lack of Noggie playing, but where are the actual crazy theories and real debates?

I tend to agree with those who see little point in the analyzations so far. I admit that I skimmed the ones posted so far. I mean, I just read the posts they're analyzing. :)

Boro... no, I'm not making fun of you. I didn't even know about that mishap. I was just taking out some latent, um, frustration from the last game I was in. I did not get to vote the last day, but surely would have voted Eomer if I'd gotten to the thread 2 hours earlier than I did.

Also, I wasn't saying the Seer should reveal just for the sake of revealing the cobbler. Ha, ah ha ha ha. I was just saying that, if the Seer feels the need to reveal a Penguin or two (for example, in the first game I played in, you revealed KuruWolf after FeaWolf was already dead, and left us to find KitWolf ourselves) and also happened to know who the Cobbler is, they could let us know. But the Seer should only reveal if s/he has actual Penguin-centric information to share. The Cobbler would just be icing on the cake.

Oh yeah, and tp, read the rules. I'm the half-wit around here. :p

[Macalaure]

Sorry to bore Diamond even more, but


Pros and Cons of Phantom's plan (as I understand it):


pro: The seer will have a good chance to hide from the wolves.

A talented and gifted Seer can effectively stay hidden without having to do this.Yes, but

pro: If the seer is killed by the wolves nevertheless we always have his list, whatever happens.


con: If everybody has his own "If I was the seer, then"-list, then the wolves can cancel out everybody who has a wrong guess on his list as a possible seer. No good. So the real seer has to mix at least one wrong dream into his list.

con: This plan is likely to handicap and confuse us in the "theories"-section.

[Valier]

Wow I don't think I've ever been called eccentric before....nice....:p

I for one also think all this ww 101 is boring, we know how the game works and I think if everyone left seer hints, all us Ordo's will have more of a hard time picking out the WP's. I understand why you think this is a good plan, but I am sure the Seer can take care of themself for at least awhile. I will be around for most of the day today, so I will be making a list shortly with who I think the baddies and goodies are.

[Kitanna]

con: If everybody has his own "If I was the seer, then"-list, then the wolves can cancel out everybody who has a wrong guess on his list as a possible seer. No good. So the real seer has to mix at least one wrong dream into his list.

con: This plan is likely to handicap and confuse us in the "theories"-section.
I'm not sure what you're getting at with your cons, Macalaure. At this point the seer has had one dream, any other hints he/she drops will be mere guesses on his/her part. I'm pretty God awful at math, but the chances of a non-gifted innocent villager getting another innocent right in their phony predictions is pretty good, and the WP know who is innocent and guilty so it'll be harder for them to cancel out whose really gifted and who's trying to confuse them. The seer wouldn't have to mix in a wrong dream.
But this is the last I'm going to say on the seer plan because there are more important things to focus on as the day draws on.

[Anguirel]

Ah, fair ladies, what a fanbase you are...

Ahem. I can see in retrospect that maybe I wasn't playful enough, and I sympathise entirely, I mean, you brought me along for the entertainment and I seem to have been rather dull. I heard a lay, long ago, about the Lord of Evil Morgoth before Tulkas captured him, and how he used to turn minstrels that bored him into tortellini.

But personally, I'm not quite sure I'm so desperately guilty as charged. I might not have been playful, but, as spawn herself readily admits, there wasn't all that much to play with at the time of writing. Yet I had to churn something out as I had picked out that section of the morning for my main period of imput, leaving the rest for some work.

Now, naturally, you've called me away for rather harder work. I feel a thousand bills trained on my effete minstrel frame. Yep, bills.

His first post is a noble attempt to make an analysis with minimal amount of material. Maybe a bit too noble, actually.

The island resonates to my gulping at this point. Should've guessed it from that tricolon earlier. Incidentally, Ungoliantina m'dear, what happened to your Firefoot and Roa analyses? Not enough material?

At that point ten people had posted and he picked six of them (who had posted once or twice) to inspect. All the statements of the villagers contain a positive and negative side, but we don't get any kind of a real conclusion of that. Yes, it's hard to tell, but that hardly provokes discussion and it's something a WP would want to do in order to appear helpful.

The stringent criteria for my choices were simply the ones that caught my interest. I might as well criticise you for not examining Firefoot and Roa-though in fact I'm not going to do so. I was saying as much as I could and what I genuinely thought, not just some vain controversy-courting gauntlet-chuck challenge. Seems it didn't pay off.

-He said that he likes fighting with phantom, but phantom makes sense. Ang is suspicious of phantom until he's proven innocent, but he agrees with phantom's points.

Yes, that's what I said, and I meant it. Unlike the redoubtable phantom, I don't instantaneously see a case against anyone I choose to accuse. Now (as with Saucy in an earlier adventure) I suspect phantom but am damned if I can justify my fears. He's just as usual; indeed predictable.

In Ang's second post he answers Macalaure that the Seer theory has two sides, but phantom's plan seems pretty good unless he is a WP. Next thing he says that he'd rather not have hints at all because we should concentrate on the enemies instead of gifteds. To me the plan isn't about concentrating on gifteds, but trying to distract the WPs while we pay attention to catching them.

IE...this is your "not flip-flopping exactly, but" point. I don't regard so called flip-flopping as an invariable crime. To me a post should be a fluid unit of thought not length, and if you start at a different position from where you began it can actually be helpful.

About Seer-hints vs their lack-you're frightfully keen on pushing this, spawn. I simply think not doing something en masse is rather easier than doing something en masse. If we go along with the plot, some will hint, and some won't because they're individualists, or foes, or nervous Gifteds, or just don't like the plan. This gives the penguins a framework which may ultimately harm us more than them.

He asks if phantom wants to go with his ancestor's plan about lynching volunteers and says that he'd not support the idea.

In his third post Ang just refers to his ancestor and explains why he thinks that lynching volunteers is a bad idea. Well, why to bring it up in the first place, then?

You emphasise my leaning on "ancestral" advice, and I don't much like the implication that I'm a wicked, superior pseud who just rises above the press with a few tedious anecdotes. Now I'm not only a second-rate jester, but rather a bore as well.

I brought up that phantom theory because the phantom, as I said, is enormously predictable and having seen him wave about his tired old Seer hint plan, crafted many, many moons ago, I was interested in whether he was sticking with the rest of his usual manifesto too. I was sort of carrying out a preemptive strike against those smug flourishes of his that we all know and love.

All in all, Ang has been more, well, not necessarily flip-floppy, but careful than what I would have thought. I don't get the usual innocent feeling when reading his posts, and having no certain opinion about anything looks penguinesque, so I look forward to his future posts.

And vice versa. I continue to have the highest regard for your analysis.

Now, I suppose I'd best pick a target for you bloodthirsty masses to be amused by. Get back to my duties as the unwitting Cobbler. I am forced to vote early, but will attempt to round off some fairly token reasoning.

[Kitanna]

Anguirel's last post is what I like to see. Mainly because it sheds a bit of light on him. Anguirel is extremely quiet when he's evil, making one or two posts a day and slipping under everyone's radar. So far he's made four posts, which is more then he'd have made as an evil. His defense also speaks pretty well of him. However there are also a few posts that Anguirel brought up in his last post that worry me as well.


The island resonates to my gulping at this point. Should've guessed it from that tricolon earlier. Incidentally, Ungoliantina m'dear, what happened to your Firefoot and Roa analyses? Not enough material?
...
The stringest criteria for my choices were simply the ones that caught my interest. I might as well criticise you for not examining Firefoot and Roa-though in fact I'm not going to do so. I was saying as much as I could and what I genuinely thought, not just some vain controversy-courting gauntlet-chuck challenge. Seems it didn't pay off.
Though Anguirel makes a reasonable point about Spawn focusing on him and not Firefoot and Roa. He says he won't make a case of it, but he brings it forward twice so that no one forgets Spawn went for him and not the other two. A reasonable post, but a bit of it feels like him trying to throw the suspicions off himself and onto Spawn.

Yes, that's what I said, and I meant it. Unlike the redoubtable phantom, I don't instantaneously see a case against anyone I choose to accuse. Now (as with Saucy in an earlier adventure) I suspect phantom but am damned if I can justify my fears. He's just as usual; indeed predictable.
...
I brought up that phantom theory because the phantom, as I said, is enormously predictable and having seen him wave about his tired old Seer hint plan, crafted many, many moons ago, I was interested in whether he was sticking with the rest of his usual manifesto too. I was sort of carrying out a preemptive strike against those smug flourishes of his that we all know and love.
vote early, but will attempt to round off some fairly token reasoning.
Once again he brings up the phantom and his natural distrust for him. Seems like overkill, he made it clear he doesn't trust the phantom in his first few posts, but he brings it up too often for comfort. We all have certain players we distrust because of what has happened in the past, but there is no need to reinstate that point in almost all one's posts.

Now Anguirel's defense of himself and his talkative nature show him in an innocent light. But throwing Spawn's suspicions of him onto her and his constant phantom points give him a more guilty façade.

[Boromir88]

ps. Please, people, read the rules, and you'll find playing much easier.~spawn
That's always been my problem, I skim through the rules, and it's probably going to get me into trouble one of these days. I want to get right straight to the start, and get going, I don't go through the set-up as much as one probably should. I find rules to be boring and think that there should be none except the bare minimum to keep from an all out frenzy from going on. :p

It can be just a choice of words or whatever. Ask Boromir because he can seereally how that is to be done.
Oh boy a trip down memory lane. :p Funny thing is it looks like I just did a little typo and didn't put in a space, but actually it was done on purpose...fun times. :D

I'm finding it interesting (not suspicious, necessarily) that already we've had two people try to do full out analyses on everyone (Valier's doesn't really count, I'd expect stuff like that on Day 1)... to be quite honest, I wouldn't have thought there enough material to be worth doing them. For myself, I'm not really seeing anything particularly notable or suspicious yet...~Firefoot
For me it's setting up what's coming up next, in that I was getting down sort of the first "feelings" of everyone's post. Most people had posted by this time and many more several times, and I was remarking upon the type of feel that I got from their posts, which is all leading up to what I'm doing soon.

I'm not trying to squelch conversation. I'm trying to turn it from fruitless cobbler-and-see talk to penguin catching. I've been in 3 separate villages where an evil villager was lynched on the first day, and I'm the last person you'll see complain about not having much to go on on day 1, especially since I ascribe none of those kills to luck.~Jenny
My fault then and this makes you seem more innocent in my eyes. I still stand by that it will be beneficial to lay down plans and ideas that our gifteds may want to consider. It's their own decision to come up with, but just some ideas for them to think about. I agree only good to the penguins can come out of someone saying "I think so and so may be the Seer," but was pointing out this was not the case. It was possible strategies being discussed, not actually naming anyone. And that response there makes you look innocent to me.

So now onto what I was talking about before and the kind of feel I got off of people's post. These are the ones that to me, as of right now have a more innocent look to them:

Spawn
Jenny
Eonwe
Valier
Macalaure

Most of them I already explained why they appear innocent before. Spawn for her input on Anguirel she seems innocent. I don't know yet what to make of Anguirel, but Spawn's input is beneficial, helpful, and usually I don't suspect the one's who announce stronger suspicions this early. For it's a bold move for a WP to stick their neck out and first really start the suspicions.

Unsure, now these following people could really go either way. Some have a more innocent feel to them, but wouldn't put it past them if they were a WP. Others there's just nothing definitive to go off of and outrightly declare them in the other two categories:

phantom
Firefoot
Naria
Encaitare
Diamond

phantom always has strategies always appears helpful, and right now seems to be more innocent. There's nothing that cries out penguin, but the scary thing with phantom is he'll play the exact same whether he's innocent or not. He'll be proposing ideas, talking strategies...etc, be it he innocent or evil penguin.

Firefoot, hasn't said a whole lot yet, seems to be more observant so far today. Perhaps that's just because there's really not too much out there. Again, like phantom, I like the advice from her so far, but it wouldn't surprise me if she was a wolf.

Naria and Encaitare both haven't posted anything yet. Well Naria did, but I'm not counting that. So, I can't make a decision on them yet at all.

And Diamond has just confused me so far. The cobbler business seemed awkward to me, I'm glad she came out and explained it more, but she's not done anything to make me feel like she's innocent like the "innocent looking" group.

And those who seem strange and since I'll be gone for 2-3 hours then come back, one of these people will most likely get my vote today.

Roa
Lalaith
Anguirel
Kitanna

Roa has come in established a presence in the village, but really hasn't if you know what I mean. Also, as I remarked before I don't agree with the "don't throw around theories or baseless arguments," and what do I propose you want us to do to catch a penguin miss Guardian?

Lalaith is the one I'm probably most concerned about right now. I said in my last post I didn't see anything that caught my alarm, but now with her recent post there have been a few things:
Talks about the confusion caused by the cobber, and also agrees with phantom, that the cobbler doesn’t know anything, but then seems to say it is important to lynch him anyway, which is I think what Roa was saying.
If you read through more carefully yes I agreed with both phantom and Roa but they were two seperate points made about the cobbler. I said yes to phantom saying the cobbler's guess to who the penguins are as good as an ordinary villager...meaning they don't know. And I agreed with Roa that the cobbler's death would be a positive for the village. Now this comment didn't seem to strange to me at first but it's what comes after:
Looking over it, I'm quite interested in a few things, such as people who seem to be taking up two points of view simultaneously
I am also having bad feelings about my old comrades in evil, Boro and phantom.
It just seems like she's trying to nudge suspicion towards other people. Not outrightly make a stance, just kind of saying "hey I have a bad feeling about them," or "this is odd" (and then something that was misinterpretted). Just seems to me that she's trying to get suspicion nudged towards other people without risking a lot.

Anguirel, I must say Spawns comments were very intriguing on Anguirel. At first it seemed to me like Anguirel was going off with what he had at the time, but good points have been raised against him. I'm going to hold off until he gets back.

Kitanna, she's looking suspicious not as a penguin but as the cobbler. Comes in with the first post, but I must say Kitanna you have confused a lot of stuff. Which means I don't think a penguin would be this clumsy so right now you feel like the cobbler.
This is also a good plan because if a non-gifted villager drops a subtle hint on who they think is guilty and turns out to be correct the penquins may kill him/her thinking they had gotten the real seer. Of course we would lose an innocent in the process, but our seer would be intake.
Actually phantom's plan (as I have read it, again correct me if I am wrong) was not to hint guilts, but to hint innocents. Because phantom argued that if someone is hinting guilts and it's not one of the penguins, then the penguins know that person must not then be the Seer. So, to cover the seer it's hinting innocents therefor the penguins have a harder time finding the seer, not guilty ones as you have seed.

Boromir said he doubts phantom would be such a double-bluffer, today I'm inclined to believe that.
Actually I said of everyone in this village I expected phantom the most likely to pull a double-bluff.

Kitanna's made a few misinterpretations it looks like, seems too clubsy to be a penguin, but very well could be the cobbler.

[Boromir88]

...just cross posted with a bunch of people, but I have to go for now so will be back later with more.

[Anguirel]

Anguirel's last post is what I like to see. Mainly because it sheds a bit of light on him. Anguirel is extremely quiet when he's evil, making one or two posts a day and slipping under everyone's radar. So far he's made four posts, which is more then he'd have made as an evil.

I know this is against my interests, Kitanna, but actually that's piffle. I've been cursed twice and on both occasions I talked constantly right until I was dragged, flailing, kicking, biting, and howling, to the gallows and the gibbet-the only exceptions being when I was away.

I always talk a lot, I think. Not Lommyesque quantities, but quite a lot nonetheless. I'm a sort of middleweight loudmouth.

Oh, and that stuff about dragging Spawnowen through the coals about Firefoot and Roa and then disingenuously claiming I wasn't accusing her for it is a good sighting by you, but it was, sort of, intended as a joke. Basically it means I've been struggling with too much [Latin] oratory today. Cicero, er, Feanor, uses that technique all the time in his polemics...

Mentioning the phantom a lot. Well, how could I not. I mean, he is Eru, isn's he?

[Kitanna]

Actually phantom's plan (as I have read it, again correct me if I am wrong) was not to hint guilts, but to hint innocents. Because phantom argued that if someone is hinting guilts and it's not one of the penguins, then the penguins know that person must not then be the Seer. So, to cover the seer it's hinting innocents therefor the penguins have a harder time finding the seer, not guilty ones as you have seed.
I know phantom's plan is to hint innocents, but I'm saying hinting a guilty can benefit too, incase the innocent's hint happens to be right.

PS: Anguirel, I got you confused with someone else. So my point about you being quiet is no longer valid.

[Valier]

Hmmmm I just noticed this...Phantom are you aware that you have again placed an arrow in your posts? Are you trying to make yourself look good? Or is this a plan to make people think you are gifted? Sorry but I find that weird. I think You would indeed make a good and well played stinky Cobbler! The things you say sound good, so people tend to follow you, and adding the arrow again to your posts, suggests you are false in some way.

[Macalaure]

Chance of a regular innocent to pick one other innocent now: 12 out of 15

Same after one lynching and one killing: 9 out of 12 (if no wp is lynched)

12/15 * 9/12 = 3/5 a chance for an innocent to pick two other innocents. Only a little more than 50-50. The wps can single almost half of us out as possible seers. And that after two days! Way no good.


But I think we can abandon all this for the reasons Ang gave, anyway. It's unlikely that all innocents will join in...

[Anguirel]

Right. Well, I do share some of Boromir's concerns about Lalaith. She's in an extremely neutral position. She grandly, but quite languidly, sanctioned dancing spawn's angle on my nefariousness (though considerate as ever she was prepared to factor in IRL) and then casts a rather wide net:

I agree that Ang should be watched closely - also Di, who can hide much behind the kooky facade, and Macalaure, so keen to emphasise his newbie status and yet able to worst phantom on the cobbler issue.

However, she's fishing in a pretty wide sea, after all, so perhaps she can be excused. Unless my metaphor turns out to be literal and pinquoid, of course, ho ho.

The thing about me being "one of nature's Cobblers" stung rather, I confess. But I shouldn't let that affect my actions unduly.

Neither am I going to vote for the phantom. I do not condemn him, only his Master Plans, which Macalaure has proved adept at ripping apart. I don't much like plans. Particularly at this stage.

I will probably vote for Eonwe or Kitanna-decision and reasoning pending.

EDIT: Kitanna-just a guess-did you confuse me with Formendacil? We are actually twins separated at birth, y'know.

[JennyHallu]

Macalaure...maths always make me nervous, but shoddy maths make me downright suspicious.

Our proverbial villager-er-iceberger can discount himself, knowing his own innocence, so his first pick is out of 14, not 15. 3 are wolves: therefore his chances of correctly naming an innocent is 11 out of 14.

On day 2, assuming we have lost 2 innocents, he is down to 12 choices. His chances are now 9 out of 12.

But you are assuming randomness, and that simply does not hold. An iceberger does not, perhaps, know anything, but neither are we incapable of intelligent analysis. The more information we have to work with, the higher the chance of being correct in our analyses. And each innocent revealed by death increases the real information we have, and makes analysis even stronger. I have great faith in the power of these icebergers!!

[Diamond18]

Valier, tp almost always uses the arrow in his posts.

[Anguirel]

Right. My case on Kitanna was basically founded on her way of being-like Lalaith actually, but at greater length-a backer, not a starter. She qualifies and hedges and does not greatly disagree with those going before her. I also thought she might be obscuring truths with layers of theory, but it's dawned on me she just made a couple of mistakes.

So with little time to lose I am going to have to vote for Eonwe with the shoddy justification of his quietness. I really must dash soon or I won't get any supper-I'll try to get back before the deadline and possibly retract but I fear it will be tricky.

Better a pretty lame vote than no vote at all, eh?

++EONWE

[Firefoot]

Though Anguirel makes a reasonable point about Spawn focusing on him and not Firefoot and Roa. He says he won't make a case of it, but he brings it forward twice so that no one forgets Spawn went for him and not the other two. A reasonable post, but a bit of it feels like him trying to throw the suspicions off himself and onto Spawn. That caught my eye too. Actually, more interesting to me is that Spawn brought up Roa and myself in the first place at that point... I only had one post, and it wasn't exactly a very weighty one either. Not exactly much to look at. There might be more now, I suppose, but not much... as Anguirel noted, I'm sort of in observation mode at the moment. Day 3 is usually about when I start getting it in gear, maybe Day 2 if the village has been active.But you are assuming randomness, and that simply does not hold. An iceberger does not, perhaps, know anything, but neither are we incapable of intelligent analysis. The more information we have to work with, the higher the chance of being correct in our analyses. And each innocent revealed by death increases the real information we have, and makes analysis even stronger. I have great faith in the power of these icebergers!! Exactly. And it's a lot easier to pick out an innocent than a penguin.

[Macalaure]

Jenny, I got the counting wrong. You're right, it's 11/14 and the second day it's 8/11 then, because you can't pick the same twice. But that's even worse actually. Enough of that.

Why does Ang vote for the silent Eonwe, when Enca has been even more silent?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

con: If everybody has his own "If I was the seer, then"-list, then the wolves can cancel out everybody who has a wrong guess on his list as a possible seer. No good. So the real seer has to mix at least one wrong dream into his list. No-one talked about lists. Having lists won't be a good thing.

I know phantom's plan is to hint innocents, but I'm saying hinting a guilty can benefit too, incase the innocent's hint happens to be right.I think normal cases work better than hints when trying to deduce who's guilty.


Anguirel, you are far from a bore, you know that, but that wasn't the point. Also, not everything I write is meant to accuse. This, for example...

"At that point ten people had posted and he picked six of them (who had posted once or twice) to inspect" ~Spawn about Ang

...wasn't an accusation, I'm just clearing the backgrounds. Incidentally, Ungoliantina m'dear, what happened to your Firefoot and Roa analyses? Not enough material? Ooh, I got a new nickname? Thanks! (Although I like the old one even better.) Yes, you're right. That and lack of time. Roa has posted only once, and even though I could have made a case out of that, I wanted to see if there would be something funny in her other posts, too, or if it was just a first post thing before I accuse her. It was pretty much the same with Firefoot. Besides, I don't want to say out loud what caught my attention in their posts before I have more evidence. But hey, at least we got some discussion going on so that certain experienced players won't get bored... :rolleyes: ;)


I'll vote soon, but I have no idea yet who shall get my vote. I'll go rereading a bit.

[Diamond18]

Alright, well, here's my "this is my gut feelings on people" post. I'm probably totally off base as usual, but hey, one must participate as much as one is able.

Valier - seems her usual self, nothimg much to comment on, could be anything.

Diamond18 - Quack. Or whatever it is that penguins say.

Naria - One little post. Naria's usually quiet, but this makes her dangerous. I worry.

Macalaure - New, outspoken, feels genuine and innocent. Tied with Ang for most posts so far.

Lalaith - Only two posts and does a rather early analysis. Hmmm. Not sure what to think.

Firefoot - Feels innocent.

Jenny - Feeling innocent to me so far, she's posted a bit more than in the last few games, almost reminds me of when she used to actually be on the good side. So, feels innocent.

Roa - One post? Roa, why aren't you posting?

phantom - Feels okay for now.

Boromir - Seems quite innocent.

spawn - Feels innocent

Kitanna - She seems a bit too outspoken and somewhat careless in some of her points to be a KitPenguin. Evil Kitanna, note, is usually very careful and nearly impossible to find fault with.

Encaitare - No posts. Interesting. I've never played with Enca and don't know any of her habits. Could someone enlighten me?

Anguirel - Feels okay. For now.

Eonwe - Quiet, a bit shady.

I'll be off for a bit but back before the deadline to vote.

[Encaitare]

As usual, I'm writing my post as I catch up on what's happened. And as I mentioned in the WWJ thread, 10 PM GMT doesn't work out so well for me (as it is 6 PM EST), hence my latecoming. RL circumstances cause me to have to vote now or never.

Now for my observations...

Phantom is his usual outspoken self, which is great when he's an ordo... because as much as I hate to admit it, he usually has some pretty good ideas. :p His suggestion in post #20:

I would recommend that everyone drop a hint of innocence about a fellow villager or two in the following days as if you were the Seer and had dreamed that person innocent. That should make it easier for the Seer to hide.

makes me feel like he is innocent. Then again, he is an experienced player and knows how to bluff well.

Giving seerish hints while not being seer and being as reasonable as possible doesn't mix to me.

Even though Phantom uses the phrase "as if you were the Seer" doesn't mean that every suggestion that someone is innocent means you're behaving in a Seer-ish manner. Above, I just said that I think the phantom is innocent, but that is based on what he has said thus far rather than me trying to fake the WPs out.

Voting at present:
Eonwe: 1 (Anguirel)

It looks as though I really didn't miss much in the past 21 hours... most of today's discussion does seem to be "Werewolf 101," as it's being called. I'm going to reread the discussion and cast my vote in about half an hour.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Diamond.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I typed this as I read through, so it might be a little messy. Also, I'm going to go back through, now that we're near the end of Day 1, to analyze a few people who have peaked my interest. These are people that don't sit right with me, so I'll be back. Also, I apologize for my long absence- I was kept busy with some RL things.

Well yeah, but if that situation comes up a clever villager could preempt the WPs and step forward and claim to be a WP and demand that the Cobbler vote with him. Then perhaps a real WP would step forward to contest the claim? Then it would be up to the Cobbler to decide who was the real WP.

In your scenario, the other villagers would have to figure out which WP was which as well, thus creating general confusion. It would hurt the village more than it would hurt the WP's or the cobbler.

To everyone- I believe spawn already said this, but the seer knows what he/she is doing. Leave them alone, and let them figure out their own plan. It's up to them if they drop hints or keep quiet. I've seen both be useful to the village, and it will depend on the seer and what they wish to do.

Roa there is a common misconception about theories, everyone seems to think it's just baseless and preposterous. Now a true theory is a hypothesis based UPON facts. So, the facts are sitting out there and then based on those facts you form a hypothesis which = theory. And for everybody except the wps and the Seer all we have to find the penguins are theories. Which means taking facts, like what people say, how they vote, who's killed...etc taking that knowledge and using it to present a hypothesis that is backed up by facts (aka a theory).

I never said I disliked theories, just that I'm better at analysis and summaries, like the one Lal provided. The truth is, you can postulate all day long, but in the end hard evidence, like what is provided in summaries and analysis, can't be denied with any sort of reasonableness, unlike a theory which can be shown false. In the end, you can't deny a fact. But that is neither here nor there- we all have our own way of playing, and we are all pretty good at it.

Once again he brings up the phantom and his natural distrust for him. Seems like overkill, he made it clear he doesn't trust the phantom in his first few posts, but he brings it up too often for comfort. We all have certain players we distrust because of what has happened in the past, but there is no need to reinstate that point in almost all one's posts.

While I trust Ang about as much as I trust anyone (ie, not at all), the point made here is faulty. Ang was answering the suspicion against him stated by Spawn, not trying to continually point out his distrust for phantom. His repeat of Spawn's focus on him is suspicious, but not this. After all, he was questioned for it- we'd suspect him more if he refused to answer.

Roa has come in established a presence in the village, but really hasn't if you know what I mean. Also, as I remarked before I don't agree with the "don't throw around theories or baseless arguments," and what do I propose you want us to do to catch a penguin miss Guardian?

As I stated previously- I said I wasn't one for theories, but I never said don't state them. I did, however, say that we should be wary of baseless arguments, because they are, in fact, baseless. Trying to get someone lynched with no real reasoning is highly suspicious to me. For example- I will be the first to say Valier's instincts are scarily accurate, but I won't simply go along with her suspicions if she is unable to back them up in anyway. I cannot, and maintain my intellectual integrity. Are you suggesting that we simply ignore reasoning all together? I will not follow an illogical suggestion.

EDIT: Cross posted with Diamond and Enca- don't worry, I'm here, I've just been tied up.

[the phantom]

No time right now- I'm on a quick break at work. I'll be back later.

I just wanted to say that, for reasons which I'll reveal later if I feel like it, I strongly believe that Mac is innocent. He took my innocent bait, you might say.

[Lalaith]

Well, I'm sorry so many of you are bored. I'm not.
I think we've had some rather interesting responses so far.
Firstly, the joint prodding of Spawn and myself have done wonders for Ang - he seems to be back to his charmingly prickly self. (There, do you feel better now, Ang? "Nature's Cobbler", I only meant you had an inherent sense of mischief. Honest...)
I also cast some aspersions elsewhere, and there have been some interesting responses to that, too. Two people say they find analyses boring/pointless, and then do fairly lengthy analyses themselves. Diamond, your last post, you go through everyone and basically say you think they are all innocent? What was the point?
Then there is Boromir. I mention him in my list of suspects, he retaliates by putting me at the head of his list, and seems to be quoting from two of my posts implying they are from the same post. He also seems to have read my initial post more carefully than he appears to have done...something I have seen werecreatures do before.
Like I said, it's all very interesting. But then, maybe I'm easily pleased.

[Encaitare]

My suspicions upon rereading the thread:
- Lalaith, because I feel that a detailed post analysis so early looks like the person is trying a bit too hard to appear helpful.
- Spawn, for singling out Anguirel when it doesn't seem as though he's any more suspicious than anyone else.

I would like to remind everyone, especially those who are suspicious of people because they are quiet, that more posts does not equal more likely to be innocent! Some of the best werecreatures have been very vocal, outspoken players. Yes, silence from players is frustrating because it gives the others less to work with. But unfortunately, we all have RL to deal with... like me, right now. I therefore cast my vote for

++ LALAITH

Probably wrong, but it's as good a guess as I can make at this point.

Current voting:
Eonwe: 1 (Anguirel)
Lalaith: 1 (Encaitare)

[Diamond18]

Diamond, your last post, you go through everyone and basically say you think they are all innocent? What was the point?

It's my feelings on everyone. So sue me if you all feel mostly innocent. :p

Though, if you'll notice I did not actually say "I think everyone is innocent." I could either suggest you go reread my post or just point out that I have slightly niggling feelings about:

YOU
Roa
Eonwe
Naria
Enca
Valier

Okay, now I'm really off for a bit. :rolleyes:

[JennyHallu]

Yay for one retraction. The end of my embroidery duties approaches, and at about this time daily I must take a short constitutional before true relaxation begins. Sometimes I make it home and back to iceberg duties by nightfall, and sometimes I do not. Therefore: a vote!

++a phantom

Because I distrust "innocent tests" with reasons withheld. Even a seer looks for bogus reasons for his trust, and trust or distrust granted without reasoning doesn't help anybody.

This may or may not change. I don't know.

[Macalaure]

Nah, I can't resist to do a "Who I feel is evil or not"-post, though I don't think it will contribute much.


Anguirel
Said in post #44 that most probably not everybody will join Phantom's plan. - Now what would be better for the wolves than a seer-hiding-plan only half of us participate in? So, he feels quite innocent right now.

Boromir88
Good analyses. No suspicions about him as yet.

dancing spawn
Difficult to read for me. Have to keep watching her.

Diamond18
No idea.

Encataire
Seems quite innocent - at the moment.

Eonwe
?

Firefoot
Feels innocent.

JennyHallu
I cannot give a reason yet, but she does not feel good to me.

Kitanna
I don't want to repeat the points already made: Suspicious.

Lalaith
Leaves me with a weird feeling. I wished I felt better about her.

Naria
...

the phantom
The "Looks foul but feels fair"-type. As nobody here sees him/her-self capable of reading him, I surely don't.

Roa-Aoife
Feels fine with me.

Valier
Would be high on my suspicion list, but since many said she acts like always, she's alright for now.


So, few innocents, few suspects, many question marks, as one expected.


I just wanted to say that, for reasons which I'll reveal later if I feel like it, I strongly believe that Mac is innocent. He took my innocent bait, you might say.
Ah! uh... well, thank you.
But, please, share your thoughts.

[Valier]

I've been reading through and just wanted to say a little bit about my thoughts on each player so far.

Ok so on my list of potential WP's I have Anguirel, Naria, phantom.
I think the points Spawn made about Ang were sound and having played with Ang before I know he is a very compatent werecreature. I know for a fact that he will still attack and argue and banter even if he is a baddie which makes him dangerous. Naria on the other hand is always quiet and hard to judge, making it easy for her to slip by. Now I have only played with the phantom once and I see that he did use an arrow in his posts there, but I find it distracting. It makes me think he does it on purpose to mess with people like me.

Others I find iffy so far are Mac, hiding behind a newbie status can help when used right, but all the math so early on in the game makes me leery.I think Eonwe is always a potential threat and needs to be watched or else he too can slip by undetected for a long time.

Most of the others I either have no idea about yet or they feel innocent. Jenny, Spawn, Boromir, Diamond, Firefoot are in my feels innocent list.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I just wanted to say that, for reasons which I'll reveal later if I feel like it, I strongly believe that Mac is innocent. He took my innocent bait, you might say.
Unless the whole thing was orchestrated by you... One thing that I find interesting in Macalaure is that he (she? Apologies, but could someone confirm that) seems to be aware of the subtleties of the Cobbler role and how a Seer can hide, for example, but messes up some basic things. Seems a bit orchestrated, as I said, but on the other hand, I can still remember my WW newbie days.

I'm suspicious of Kitanna as well. Her suggestion in post #49 could be rather disastrous for innocents and she's been a bit careless toDay. Yeah, I suspected Ang for being careful and Kitanna for being careless. Oh well.

Also, there's still something that makes me wary of Firefoot's, but I need to go now, so I don't have time to explain.

I was a little suspicious of Jenny, but now I think that she's either the Cobbler or an innocent. If she's a penguin, then I must say that was a nice trick.


++ Kitanna

Good Night!

[Roa_Aoife]

Boromir analysis (because he's seemed off to me since his second post)

1st post

Nonsense (ie in character posting), says the biggest set back of the cobbler is the confusion that could be caused, agrees that getting rid of the cobbler is benefitial to the village

2nd post

Says Valier and Eonwe are acting too wierd to be penguins, thinks Firefoot is logical, doesn't see anything of significance in Roa's, phantom's or Diamond's posts.

3rd post

Says the only person he would expect to double bluff is phantom, or possibly ang,lists all the villagers minus himself:

Valier- too eccentric to be guilty
Diamond- also too eccentric, but he finds her quote about the seer and cobbler odd

Doesn't know about Naria

Mac- thinks mac is innocent, and behaving like a newbie
Lal- doesn't mind summaries, but doesn't really see a point
Firefoot- if innocent, good, if not, bad
Jenny- trying to squelch conversation
Roa- goes off about theories being a good thing
phantom- more likely to be a penguin than Mac, acting normally
spawn- seems fishy
Ang- nothing strange
Eonwe- having day 1 fun

Disagrees with phantom's plan

4th post

doesn't like to read the rules, remark about typos, answers Firefoots remark about analysis,responds to Jenny with apologies, thinks it's a good idea to lay down ideas for the gifted to follow

List of blieved innocents:

Spawn- for input about Ang
Jenny-
Eonwe
Valier
Macalaure

List of iffys

phantom- phantom plays the same when guilty or innocent
Firefoot- more observant than anything else
Naria- nothing really posted
Encaitare- nothing posted
Diamond- too confusing

List of suspected

Roa- doesn't like her supposed dis of theories
Lalaith- thinks lal is trying to nudge suspicion towards other people
Anguirel- spawn's comments
Kitanna- cobbler

5th post

Note on having cross posted

analysis to follow

[Firefoot]

Jenny, Diamond, and Macalure all feel rather innocent to me right now.

I have to go (or at least I will shortly), so a vote:

++Lalaith

She just isn't sitting right with me.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, a couple things caught my eye here- in his second post, he said there wasn't enough in my post for him to say anything, but later on he sites that same post for moving me to the top of his suspicion list. Then he stated on his point about Lalaith that he didn't like summaries- in the middle of a summary he was doing himself. You don't get much more contradictory than that. His sudden suspicion of Lal also seems to be a nervous response to her mild suspicion of him. Really, his main reason for suspecting her are comments that she madde about him.

Then there was this:

Actually I said of everyone in this village I expected phantom the most likely to pull a double-bluff.

No, actually you said this:

The only person I would expect to double-bluff is phantom...and actually I wouldn't put it past Anguirel either.

Really, misquoting yourself? Boromir is looking very bad to me right now, and I will most likely vote for him. There a few others that I will look at though, if I have the time. (I'm a little short on that at the moment.)

[Boromir88]

Are you suggesting that we simply ignore reasoning all together? I will not follow an illogical suggestion.~Roa
I don't recall suggesting we should ignore reasoning. I find theories facts and reasoning to go hand-and-hand and should be used. If I misinterpretted what you said then that's my own mistake, but I read this:
That said, we should be very careful concerning theories and reasoning, and look very closely for faulty logic or baseless assumptions, especially if someone keeps stating a theory as fact.
And to me it looked like you were comparing theories to "baseless assumptions." But, a theory isn't a theory without facts to support it. So, I was saying that theories aren't baseless because theories have facts to back it up (according to the true definition of a theory that is), and if it doesn't have facts then it's not a theory. Anyway point is, I thought there you were saying theories were baseless and we shouldn't use them. If that's not what you were saying then I stand corrected.

Two people say they find analyses boring/pointless, and then do fairly lengthy analyses themselves. Diamond, your last post, you go through everyone and basically say you think they are all innocent? What was the point?
Then there is Boromir. I mention him in my list of suspects, he retaliates by putting me at the head of his list, and seems to be quoting from two of my posts implying they are from the same post. He also seems to have read my initial post more carefully than he appears to have done...something I have seen werecreatures do before.
If you are here saying I am one of those two people you'll find you are greatly wrong. I never said, nor will I ever say that analysis is boring and pointless. I said for me I don't use "summaries" because I don't see why we hsould it's all right there. I'm perfectly fine with people using summaries, if that helps them sort out everything, but me personally I don't use them and I don't see a point in them. But I never said I was anti-analysis if that's what you are implying, that's actually all I really do. :rolleyes:

If you call it retaliation then so be it, I can't change your opinion on that. But accusing me because I like to read through carefully? Sorry if I like to look at what people are posting. Perhaps you should read through more carefully instead of applying twisted logic to what I say.
He also seems to have read my initial post more carefully than he appears to have done...something I have seen werecreatures do before.
No I read through your first post carefully the first time. Initially, your first post I found no concern over, even though you did suspect me. It was your post after when I went back and re-thought about your first post. Because in your second post you were just kind of snipping around saying some names of people you're suspicious of but without saying anything else. Just that phantom and I seem odd to you.
and seems to be quoting from two of my posts implying they are from the same post.
Even if that's what I was doing I fail to see what significance it would have. Seems to me Lalaith you're grasping at straws trying to dig your way out of a hole.

I know phantom's plan is to hint innocents, but I'm saying hinting a guilty can benefit too, incase the innocent's hint happens to be right.~Kitanna
It looked to me like you were saying you agreed with phantom's plan then talked about naming guiltys, but phantom's plan said we shouldn't name who we thought was guilty. So really you weren't agreeing with phantom's plan, because his plan was against that. :)

[Lalaith]

Roa, I'm glad I'm not the only one. Of my original list of suspects, Boro is the one that still sticks out. (Although phantom has been a bit odd, all this dashing in and out, dropping gnomic hints about Maclaure.)
Boro, you are being really defensive and it adds to my uneasy feeling about you. I really don't like getting into tit-for-tat rows with people, particularly not on Day One, but this just seems to me the best thing to do:
++BOROMIR

[Boromir88]

Wow Roa this is greatly surprising me...
he said there wasn't enough in my post for him to say anything, but later on he sites that same post for moving me to the top of his suspicion list.
Umm, that list wasn't in anyway numbered. Perhaps you should go reread where I said I was Lalaith concerned me the most.

Really, misquoting yourself? Boromir is looking very bad to me right now, and I will most likely vote for him. There a few others that I will look at though, if I have the time. (I'm a little short on that at the moment.)
Talk about being picky here are we. I have one little word change and I'm contradicting myself? Kitanna said that I didn't think phantom would double-bluff, and I said no you should go back and reread where I said he is the one I feel most likely would double-bluff.

Then he stated on his point about Lalaith that he didn't like summaries- in the middle of a summary he was doing himself.
Umm I never have posted nor never will post a summary. There's a difference between going through every post on each person and reciting what they said (which is a summary) and going through the posts and staying one's feelings on everyone (which I would call analysis).

Roa, I find this act of taking things out of context and twisting really really strange did I hit a nerve?

[JennyHallu]

I did make it back!

Some interesting stuff has been going on, but not really enough to get me to change my vote. I'll keep it where it is. For now.

Roa, I'm with Boromir. Not real impressed with that analysis. Just knocked you up a peg.

[Roa_Aoife]

And to me it looked like you were comparing theories to "baseless assumptions."

Well, you were mistaken. I said that we should be wary of baseless arguments. It's too easy to misdirect people with an argumetn that has no fact behind it. Also, while theories are supported by facts, they are not, in themselves, fact, and someone who seems eager to have us adhere to one theory as fact is directly misleading us. You said this:

don't throw around theories or baseless arguments," and what do I propose you want us to do to catch a penguin miss Guardian?

I didn't say "don't throw around" anything. I said becareful of those who do. Theories are all well and good- baseless arguments aren't. It greatly concerns me that you would hold those up.

If you are here saying I am one of those two people you'll find you are greatly wrong. I never said, nor will I ever say that analysis is boring and pointless. I said for me I don't use "summaries" because I don't see why we hsould it's all right there. I'm perfectly fine with people using summaries, if that helps them sort out everything, but me personally I don't use them and I don't see a point in them.

Saying that you don't see a point in something and saying that something is pointless is the same thing. Way to contradict yourself again.

Even if that's what I was doing I fail to see what significance it would have.

It means that you're trying to look like you're giving a well thought out analysis, when you are- in short, misleading the village. I also note that you didn't outright deny it.

[Anguirel]

Thank Eru I managed to get here on time. I come back to you now...at the turning of the tide...maybe...

Things are starting to erupt into a sordid Boromir vs Roa and Lalaith struggle. I don't believe any of these three to be deserving of lynching, not yet at any rate.

But Roa's case-as Lalaith overlooked in her relief in finding an ally, but as Boromir pointed out-is fairly flimsy, based on a contradiction that does not exist. This seems to be a genuine misunderstanding and so I am inclined to spare the rod here.

In any case, I really don't want Lalaith to be the victim of this (or Boro). I am tempted to turn the Kitanna campaign into a feasible possibility; she seems more suspicious to me than either of them, with quite a few generalisations and cunning fudging verbiage.

Diamond-because she brought up the spirit of ennui-oh I'm so bored-which has had vast psychological repurcussions among the more easily led players-is also pretty voteworthy in my eyes, but at this stage she's not as realistic a candidate.

--EONWE, ++KITANNA

[Roa_Aoife]

Roa, I find this act of taking things out of context and twisting really really strange did I hit a nerve?

I haven't twisted anything. I posted the summary before the analysis so people could see for themselves what you did, and the order in which you did them. Then I pulled out the things that bothered me and elaborated on them.

Umm, that list wasn't in anyway numbered. Perhaps you should go reread where I said I was Lalaith concerned me the most.

Again, you fail to answer the actual point- it wasn't about me being your top suspect, it was that you used a post to put in your "likely to vote for" list, that you previously stated as not being enough to say anything about.

[Anguirel]

Roa, what about this...

Talk about being picky here are we. I have one little word change and I'm contradicting myself? Kitanna said that I didn't think phantom would double-bluff, and I said no you should go back and reread where I said he is the one I feel most likely would double-bluff.

You conveniently didn't address it. Face it, you've got something wrong. There was no essential contradiction. Now please, prune your pride and have a glance elsewhere-you're really good value when you're not barking up the proverbial errant tree.

[Roa_Aoife]

You conveniently didn't address it. Face it, you've got something wrong. There was no essential contradiction. Now please, prune your pride and have a glance elsewhere-you're really good value when you're not barking up the proverbial errant tree.

I didn't address it because I conceded the point. But that wasn't my only point against him, so my case is not destroyed. And how do you know I "barking up the wrong tree?" Have you considered that I might be right? You seem to be assuming my innocense- a dangerous thing to do in this game.

[Lalaith]

But Ang, do admit, Roa's right about one thing: Boro is being oddly defensive...

[JennyHallu]

Quote:
If you are here saying I am one of those two people you'll find you are greatly wrong. I never said, nor will I ever say that analysis is boring and pointless. I said for me I don't use "summaries" because I don't see why we hsould it's all right there. I'm perfectly fine with people using summaries, if that helps them sort out everything, but me personally I don't use them and I don't see a point in them.

Saying that you don't see a point in something and saying that something is pointless is the same thing. Way to contradict yourself again.

Analysis and summaries aren't the same thing, Roa. Once again, not a contradiction. Beginning to be quite suspicious on my list there. If you're not a penguin, you might be a shoemaker, but I'm less and less sure of your innocence.

In fact,

--phantom
++Roa

[Anguirel]

Given the extreme frailty of the evidence against him, yes, it's quite odd he's bothering to defend himself at all...

It seems I got myself overly fussed about the deadline. Is it a bit later than our 10:00? [Finnish, perchance?] I now rather wish I'd voted for Diamond.

[Boromir88]

Boro, you are being really defensive and it adds to my uneasy feeling about you.
I'm sorry if defending myself means calling people out when they twist around and talk about contradictions that aren't even there.

And Roa I repeat I never said anything about being against analysis. I said I find no points in summaries, summary is not an analysis. Please stop making it look like I said anything wrong about analysis, because that's what everyone does. The fact is you have taken my words out of context and twisted them. Somehow you claim "you're my top suspect" when I said Lalaith concerned me the most.

Roa's acts are strange but it actually in a wierd way makes her look more innocent to me. She's just being far too aggressive, and this makes me think Lalaith is behind all this. Lalaith, you've been nudging suspicion towards me all day hoping someone would bite. Roa seems more like a lost innocent than a bandwagoning penguin.

++Lalaith

[Valier]

Roa I don't like your comment here

You seem to be assuming my innocense- a dangerous thing to do in this game.


I think saying this is just as dangerous. You seem to be quite defensive today of all days, why? I know you usually bicker with other players over stuff (which is fine) but like I said today? you are making yourself seem more and more suspisious.

[JennyHallu]

I didn't address it because I conceded the point. But that wasn't my only point against him, so my case is not destroyed. And how do you know I "barking up the wrong tree?" Have you considered that I might be right? You seem to be assuming my innocense- a dangerous thing to do in this game.
How does questioning your analysis assume your innocence? Is this a bit of a slip?

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm afraid I don't have time to stick around.

++Boromir

Maybe I'm just being stubborn, but he doesn't sit right with me. Notice, also, Ang, that he's ignored the point of two accusations, and instead confuses the matter at hand. I honestly don't know if it's deliberate, but Boromir's too smart for it not to be.

[Diamond18]

Something I posted has had vast psychological repurcussions among the more easily led players? Score!

Now, there's seems to be a debate going on about the differences between theories and baseless arguments, not to mention the difference between summaries and analysis.

For my part, I doin't have concrete feelings towards posting reviews of others' posts. I've toyed with a few different ways of going about it in my short WW career. I think, at the moment, my preferred way of doing it is waiting until we have some actual deaths or proven identities to go on, and then analyzing players that ping us wrong. I mean, I feel like reviewing someone's posting history is a lot more worthwhile after we have some known facts, the kind which only come about from lynchings, night deaths, seer reveals, and to a somewhat lesser extent, convincing Gifted proclimations. That's why all the analyzing and post reviewing has somewhat bored me today. I also prefer to just link to a post instead of summing it up, and then giving whatever impression I have of said post, with a possible quote if it seems necessary. This way, people get to read new stuff (ie my opinions) without having to slog through a recap of posts they already read -- and if they want to verify the exact post for themselves, well, there's a handy link.

But that's how I've taken to doing it. Obviously, others don't. I might not like reading over long summaries, but I'm not going to tell anyone to stop doing it because frankly they ain't gonna listen to me anyway.

Right now, I'm not sure what to think of all the arguing. To paraphrase the noble SpM, it's almost always the ones as look most fair that are most foul. So right now the high profile nickering of people like Ang, Roa, Boro, and Lal make them look a bit foul, depending on your viewpoint. Which worries me that, much like in Kath's game just now, provides ample room for the Weres to hide. Face it, if Lommy hadn't dreamt of her dad, he'd have made it to the end and lunched on the whole village, perhaps sacrificing Lhuna and Tom along the way, while everyone else was in a flurry to lunch tgwbs and Durelin et al.

[Anguirel]

The firepower in this struggle is unequal, against Lalaith , and I fear it profits none but the penguins. Are there any moderates out there willing to take a punt on Kitanna?

[Thinlómien]

The deadline is 10 PM GMT (not BST), which means that you have 48 minutes left.

[Roa_Aoife]

Somehow you claim "you're my top suspect" when I said Lalaith concerned me the most.

No, you're still missing the point. You moved me onto your list of suspects for a post you said had nothing worth mentioning. That is the point. Your refusal to acknowledge this only makes you look worse to me.

How does questioning your analysis assume your innocence?

He stated that I would be helpful if I focused elsewhere. If I were a were-penguin or a cobbler, I wouldn't be helpful at all. Therefore it seems that he is assuming I'm innocent.

[Diamond18]

Bollywogs. I have to leave and am not at all confident on who to vote for. Oy. But I have a job interview, and I can't be late for it.

+ + LALAITH

I don't know, there's been a lot of twisting words or perceived twisting of words going about, but some of the things she's said about other players hasn't sat well with me. I wish I had time to actually articulate this more. Also, I keep worrying that none of these high profile players today are guilty. But hopefully whatever happens with the lynching today and the death tonight will make things a little clearer.

[Kitanna]

++Anguirel
He's the only one I have even the slightest suspicions for. Even if my suspicions and reasons are weak, I'd rather vote for him instead of picking someone at random.

[Lalaith]

Oh Diamond, not again.

[Lalaith]

Vote count (curse these retractables, hope this is right)

Lalaith 4 (Enca, Firefoot, Boro, Diamond)
Boro 2 (Roa, Lalaith)
Kitanna 2 (Spawn, Anguirel)
Anguirel 1 (Kitanna)

Nine votes down, six to go? Am I right?

[Macalaure]

Unless the whole thing was orchestrated by you... One thing that I find interesting in Macalaure is that he (she? Apologies, but could someone confirm that) seems to be aware of the subtleties of the Cobbler role and how a Seer can hide, for example, but messes up some basic things. Seems a bit orchestrated, as I said, but on the other hand, I can still remember my WW newbie days.
It's a he.
I followed two or three previous Games through or half through. (wereducks, dueling wizards e.g.)

By the by, to all, just call me Mac, please. One more Maclaure or Macaluare and I'm going to scream.


I'm happy the "theories"-discussion ceased. I think we all agree that we cannot do without theories, but that they have to be coherent. If they're not, and somebody will be there checking that, it will give its writer a sure rise on everyone's suspicion lists.


So, whom to vote for. I don't have a real suspect yet and considered to vote for somebody who has no votes yet and to abstain this way. But not voting is voting for the majority. I can't give good reasons for anybody, all I can say is that Kitanna to me feels worse than Lalaith.

++Kitanna

(edit: cross-posted with Lalaith)

[Anguirel]

Ah. I fear the battle is lost. Oh well, you lot had better be right and I wrong. An innocent Lalaith is a real asset, and if you've just gone and squandered it...

EDIT: I feel your pain, Macalaure. (Hee hee, I'm Maglor savvy enough to spell it right. He taught me to play the lute and flute back in Valinor, y'know. Excellent fellow, bet he's very sorry about the Kinslaying. Ahem.) I had a long period of being mistaken for a petite maiden called Anguriel...

ANOTHER EDIT: Ah. All is not lost.

[Valier]

Well I see no reason not to go with my gut on this one

++Anguirel

I think his push for Kitanna is odd and his remark about being the unwitting cobbler are also odd. Ang is a smart guy and I find his playing to be a little over zealous for the first day. This may change, but I doubt any thing could change my mind today.

[Lalaith]

Sigh. I didn't want to have to do this, but I must. There are only 3 votes left of which 2, Naria and Eonwe, are notorious no-shows.
An innocent Lalaith, might, as Ang so nicely says, be an asset to the village but a Seer Lalaith is definitely so.
Boro is a Werepenguin.
Are Eonwe or Naria around, if so, we can still vote for Boro if everyone who still can retracts. Please say so quickly.

Ranger, if we can save me from lynching, please protect me tonight.

[Roa_Aoife]

Boro is a Werepenguin.

Told you so. :p Great job, forcing the seer to reveal herself, guys. Nice try to save her, though, Ang.

[Thinlómien]

We forgot to mention it, but as usual, if there's a tie, the first one to get most votes will be lynched.

[Kitanna]

Lalaith can still be saved.

[Lalaith]

Argh, where is everybody?

[Anguirel]

Ah. To quote from one of the finest Werewolf players, in my view, to grace these boards:

wibble

I bid you goodnight. Well done Lalaith, and I hope you can be rescued yet.

[Lalaith]

Kitanna, I would rather, obviously, save myself by lynching Boro than by lynching you. If you are around and are in a position to retract your vote, please announce yourself now.

[Kitanna]

I want to be sure you survive regardless of where the votes go. If that means I have to vote for myself then damnit, I'll vote for myself.

[Valier]

Well ok then I retract

--Anguirel

++Boromir88

You tricksey!!!!

Good job Seer! If your wrong though I say you be the shoe maker.

[Lalaith]

We have ten minutes. Kitanna, hold off for five minutes.

[Roa_Aoife]

There are three voters left, and several retractions can be made- however, if no one shows by dealine, I'm retracting my vote to vote for kitanna, and Kitanna, I hope you vote for yourself to save her.

Leaders:

Kitanna 3
Lalaith 4
Boromir 3

We need two more votes for Boromir

[Naria]

I have had a little bit of time to read through everything and their seems to be a lot of bickering back and forth between a few people and yes I find that quite odd for the first Day. The only one that stood out for me however was


++Lalaith

Ugh....I honestly don't know(Day ones really suck). I feel I need to put someone down rather than no one. Well the deadline is fast approaching so I doubt this vote will change. I hope to have more time(unexpected RL stuff came up today) the next Day to help.

[Kitanna]

I seriously didn't want to do this, but if you don't vote for Boromir then Lalaith will die tonight. I'm the ranger and if you lynch me Roa then Lalaith isn't going to survive.

[Macalaure]

Alright.

--Kitanna

++Boromir88

He played the "I've been lynched first the last game"-card. Only a penguin would do that. :p

If Boro turns out to not be a penguin, Lalaith is going to be very dead by the end of next day.

[Lalaith]

Ah, you're around still too Roa. Good. Hold off awhile. I will wait til just before deadline and if I have to, I will also retract to Kitanna.
Sorry Kit.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, that just sucks then. Nevermind. NAria- what are you doing?

[Lalaith]

Naria!!!!! Nooooo!!!!!

[Macalaure]

Did Naria really just do that? Where's the phantom, by the way?

[Lalaith]

Oh Lord. This is a shambles.

[Roa_Aoife]

Naria- even if you doubt Lalaith's claim, we can test it by lynching Boromir. If he's a wolf, she's slightly more trustworthy, if not, then we know she's a wolf. If you let he seer die, then we know what you are.

[Naria]

_ _ Lalaith

++ Boromir88

Sorry soooo sorry......I cross posted with like alot of everyone!!!! HOLY CLAP this is close

[the phantom]

Here I am, with just minutes to spare!

For those of you wanting my to explain things- you'll just have to wait. My schedule has just been too rough today. If I'm alive tomorrow I promise I'll answer any silly little question you have about me.

At this time, I am unwilling to vote for Firefoot, Jenny, Spawn, Lalaith, and Mac. They could be WPs playing extremely well (in which case I'll be onto them soon enough), but I think it's more likely that they are innocent.

Now, Boro and Anguirel- one of them is a WP. Maybe both. Who knows? They've both done a couple things to make me suspicious. Boro has displayed a certain trait in such a way that it reminded me strikingly of myself when I've been a Wolf in the past.

I will vote for....

+ + Boro

Sorry if you're innocent, old boy, but you just struck the wrong chord with me in my hurried read-through of the day's events. If I read more slowly and carefully maybe I'd clear you, but alas, I haven't the time.
Phantom are you aware that you have again placed an arrow in your posts?
Yes.
Are you trying to make yourself look good?
I don't have to try.
Or is this a plan to make people think you are gifted?
Nope.

I always use arrows. I've had arrows next to my posts for... oh... almost four years on the Downs.
I think You would indeed make a good and well played stinky Cobbler!
Thanks! I readily admit that I would absolutely love to be a Cobbler some time, but I'm not the Cobbler in this village.

Good luck surviving the Night everyone.

[Kitanna]

--Anguirel
++Boromir

[Lalaith]

Ok, I think I'm safe. Poor Kitanna, I'm sorry you got dragged into this.

[Roa_Aoife]

And Lal is safe! Good job Naria! Boromir now has 5 votes.

[Kitanna]

Ok, I think I'm safe. Poor Kitanna, I'm sorry you got dragged into this.
I figured you were innocent, so I planned to retract my vote for myself at the last minute even before you came forward. You'll be safe for at least one more night.

[JennyHallu]

Way to go, guys. I'd have helped, but I already used my retractable.

[the phantom]

*gasp*

Wow. A lot happened while I was rereading the first couple pages and writing my last post. The parts about Lal and Boro probably sound a bit stupid now that we know the facts. :rolleyes:

[Thinlómien]

Please stop voting and discussing now.

Boromir's death up soon.

[Roa_Aoife]

That was the most nerve-racking ten minutes of my month.

EDIT: Cross posted with mod again. I have to stop that.

[Thinlómien]

They had been informed about their horrid situation by the Parrot when they reached the Great Hall. Had they been humans, they would have been at each others' throats in minutes. There would have been the usual banter of Men, accusations thrown randomly around and people offended by others’ harsh words and attitudes.

Happily humans hadn’t yet been invented.

And behold! These noble Elves sat around the table in the Great Hall and started a civilized and learned discussion about possible options and theories – even speculating the nature of theories in general and their usefulness. There was also some debate on the nature of the horrid bird-creatures haunting them, arguments concerning the theory of probability and the correct mathemathical deductions from it and naturally stories of old were recounted.

“I knew those beastly little birds were no good the minute I laid eyes on them! I wanted to beat them off the ice, but noooo... you all said ‘Oh, they're cute, don't hurt them’ and ‘They're just pulling us to safety’”, began the phantom.

All the Elves hadn’t had similar feelings though:
“Those poor pretty penguins...I just never expected they might be evil!” Jenny said, evidently shocked.

“I have failed in my duty to protect the Lady Eonwe, and I am greatly shamed for it” Roa, Elenwë’s personal guard, admitted, “I will try to regain my honor by taking revenge on the beasts who harmed my mistress.”

“Failed to protect the "Lady Eonwe", huh? I believe you meant "Lady Elenwë". Are we preoccupied a bit there Roa?” Eonwe replied, pulling a face to her – clearly recalling the numerous times in the past he had been taken for a female.

“I say we get all of this over with quick and kill EOMER! Yar! Hahahahahahahaha!” Dimwë the half-wit suggested. Then, with a sigh, she continued: “Ha. Er, what was that? Well pffifle it all.”

“Well, this is all very civilised”, Lalaith commented.

And for a while it continued in a civilised manner as especially Boromir and Roa were entangled in a debate.

“Roa there is a common misconception about theories, everyone seems to think it's just baseless and preposterous. Now a true theory is a hypothesis based UPON facts. So, the facts are sitting out there and then based on those facts you form a hypothesis which = theory”, defined Boromir.

“As I stated previously- I said I wasn't one for theories, but I never said don't state them. I did, however, say that we should be wary of baseless arguments, because they are, in fact, baseless”, argued Roa, “The truth is, you can postulate all day long, but in the end hard evidence, like what is provided in summaries and analysis, can't be denied with any sort of reasonableness, unlike a theory which can be shown false.”

“There's a difference between going through every post on each person and reciting what they said (which is a summary) and going through the posts and staying one's feelings on everyone (which I would call analysis)”, Boro replied with yet another definition.

“While theories are supported by facts, they are not, in themselves, fact, and someone who seems eager to have us adhere to one theory as fact is directly misleading us”, Roa claimed.

The debate went on and on. Some of the Elves found it a bit boring, but Boro and Roa obviously didn’t.

“I say we lynch Lalaith. She tries too hard to seem helpful”, Encaitare suggested.

“Nah, let’s lynch Kitanna. She’s too careless”, spawn disagreed.

“No! Boromir is the most suspicious. He’s over-defensive”, Lalaith said.

All of them got some support, especially lynching Lalaith.

When the situation started to look quite bad for her, she sighed: “An innocent Lalaith, might, as Ang so nicely says, be an asset to the village but a Seer Lalaith is definitely so.” She added: “Boromir is a werepenguin, by the way.”

“Oohh! You tricksey”, Valier cried, “Let’s kill him!”

“Alright”, Macalaure agreed.

“Let’s kill Lalaith – no, let’s kill Boro!” Naria dropped in suddenly, a bit confused.

“Yes, let’s cast him to a gorge!” the phantom called.

“And let’s chain him first so that he can’t escape” added Kitanna.

They carried the chained Boromir to the cleft they had marked when they had gotten ashore last evening. As they reached the cleft, they felt their burden lighten. To their horror they saw Boromir morph. He shrunk and started to grow black feathers, his arms changed to little wings and his eyebrows became long and yellow.

http://i69.photobucket.com/albums/i55/Thinlomien/werepenguins/wwjrockhopper.jpg

Scared, the Boro-penguins carriers dropped him down. The Rockhopper penguin faced them defiantly, ignoring his chains. “I still say that a summary and an analysis are not the same thing”, he screaked.

“That’s enough!” Roa shouted, “Push him down!”

“Down with the werepenguins!” Lalaith agreed and helped Roa push the Rockhopper into the void.

He screamed as he fell.

~ The Dead ~
Nogrod - a troubadour, singer – mod, blowed up in the Big Bang on Night1
Thinlómien - a troubadour, harpist – mod, blowed up in the Big Bang on Night1
Boromir88 - The Mouth of Turgon – werepenguin, cast into a gorge on Day1

~ The Living ~
Anguirel - Lalwende's semi-canonical lutenist and Findis's demi-canonical flautist
dancing spawn of ungoliant - animals' dung cleaning specialist
Diamond18 - Dimwë the half-wit second cousin of Elenwë
Encaitare - A standard-bearer
Eonwe - Turgon's herald
Firefoot - Aredhel's friend
JennyHallu - An Embroiderer, lost, not related
Kitanna - servant who empties and cleans chamber pots
Lalaith - Aredhel's tutoress
Macalaure - Turgon's nephew and part-time-repentant kinslayer
Naria - Family's goat herder
the phantom - Ecthelion's hotheaded nephew and personal squire
Roa_Aoife - Elenwë's personal guard
Valier - Elenwe's personal chamber maid

Night 2 begins now.

Werepenguins start PMing.
Seer, ranger and penguins send your picks to Nogrod.

[Nogrod]

The Chinstrap was restless. One of the penguins was already dead, after only one day.
“We’ll all die soon. The Master’s plan is madness”, the Chinstrap muttered, walking in circles on the basement floor.
“No we don’t. We have the wit to stay alive. Only, of course, if no Rockhopper-like foolishness is performed”, the Emperor remarked coldly, entering the room.
“I think he was brave”, the Chinstrap feebly disagreed, but the Emperor didn’t bother to pay attention.
“Now, let’s go. We have an operation to accomplish.”

As the penguins reached the corridor from different directions, they saw just what they had expected to see. Kitanna was standing in front of a door leading to one of the bedrooms, her beautiful Elven ranger’s sword unsheathed. As planned, the Chinstrap started towards her easily, waving its head from side to side cheerily, looking as innocent as a penguin can look.
“You won’t get her!”, Kitanna yelled and took a step towards the Chinstrap, raising her sword to a swing.
“It’s not her we are after. It’s you.”, the Chinstrap answered politely.

Damn we don’t have the Rockhopper anymore, the Emperor cursed to itself, jumping a bit clumsily to peck Kitanna’s neck from behind as her attention was drawn to the Chinstrap. Still the Emperor managed to hit Kitanna to a nerve and stunned her immediately. The Chinstrap was nervously glancing around as The Emperor started the logical operation. Slowly it peeled the layers of Kitanna’s mind with the help of “the Methodological Doubt”. Finally, after putting under doubt all her earlier sensations, memories, affections and beliefs, it got to the roots it had been searching for. To the extreme certainty of one’s existence offered by the link between matter and mind, the assurance of feeling to be here and now. The Emperor snapped that link off with an argument on behalf of the soul’s autonomy and grinned foully. The totally disconnected soul of Kitanna’s vanished in a puff of logic.

The Chinstrap was looking at the now soulless body of Kitanna in amazement and then asked somewhat apologizingly “So she’s not there any more, right? Just like that? But how...?”
“You see. No matter means no extension and no extension means not occupying a place in space. And before you ask it, no I don’t know what happened to her soul – I only know that logically it can’t be in any “place” any more, and so not in her body, or anywhere around either. And that’s enough for us. Lost. Just vanished!” The Emperor answered almost patiently. Then its beak made something comparable to a smile “We’ll get back to bed now, but you surely should pay a visit to the Master’s lectures one day?”
-------------------------------

When the Elves woke up, they were dreading what would they find. They came out to the corridor, and found one of them missing.
“Where’s Kit?” Jenny, the lost Embroiderer asked worriedly.
“I fear she has been killed by the maniac birds”, the Chamber Maid Valier answered.
“No, there she comes!” the semi-demi-canonical musician, Anguirel, cried out, pointing to the stairs.
To their relief, they saw a bruised Kitanna climbing up the stairs.
“Oh, Kit, we were so worried about you! I’m so glad to see you ali...iv...” Firefoot called, stopping suddenly. She had noticed the same thing as all the others. Kitanna wasn’t normal. Her eyes were empty, and she was tumbling with every step. Never before she had been that clumsy; her occupation as a servant who empties and cleans chamber pots had required the ability of walking in stairs without fumbling.
“Kit, what has happened to you?” the Herald Eonwe asked, terrified.
There was no answer. Kitanna turned and started walking towards the wall.
“No, Kit, stop!” her kind of colleague spawn cried, but that had no effect. Kitanna tumbled head first to the wall and fell.
Lalaith, the tutoress, ran to help her up. She forced Kitanna to face her and asked “What’s wrong, Kit?” There was no answer, only an empty, mindless stare. No word, no expression, no recognition. No one in her.
“Braindead, hehe. I’m not the most stupid one anymore. Haha! Me wiser than Kit? Mwahahaa”, Dimwë the half-wit commented, voicing the fact all the others had feared.
“I’m afraid it’s more than that! She’s a zombie, a living dead, a wrap without a content, an elf body without a soul to inhabit it.” Said the horrified phantom, “I said these creatures are made by Melkor!”

The shaken elves stood there, quite at loss as to what to do with Kitanna’s animated, soulless body. It seemed to walk around slowly by itself, crushing and tumbling on everything on its way. As long as it moved it would had felt wrong to bury it, but then again, without a permanent watch it would just hurt itself even more. No one liked to figure out how “she” would look like in the evening with all the bruises...

“Breakfast. Downstairs. Breakfast downstairs”, croaked the familiar voice of the green parrot from the Great Hall.
“Naria and Roa, you are used to take care of the others. Could you bring that one down with us?” asked Encaitare, “I’m confident only with bearing standards.”
Just as they were all starting downstairs Lord Turgon’s nephew, Macalaure, noticed Kitanna’s ranger’s sword at the floor. It had gone totally unnoticed so far. He picked it up and yelled after the others “Did you see this? We’ve lost our hidden protector!”

No one disagreed the gloominess of the news.

~ The Dead ~
Nogrod - a troubadour, singer – mod, blowed up in the Big Bang on Night1
Thinlómien - a troubadour, harpist – mod, blowed up in the Big Bang on Night1
Boromir88 - The Mouth of Turgon – werepenguin, cast into a gorge on Day1
Kitanna - servant who empties and cleans chamber pots – ranger, body and soul separated by Cartesian Dualism on Night 2

~ The Living ~
Anguirel - Lalwende's semi-canonical lutenist and Findis's demi-canonical flautist
dancing spawn of ungoliant - animals' dung cleaning specialist
Diamond18 - Dimwë the half-wit second cousin of Elenwë
Encaitare - A standard-bearer
Eonwe - Turgon's herald
Firefoot- Aredhel's friend
JennyHallu - An Embroiderer, lost, not related
Lalaith - Aredhel's tutoress
Macalaure - Turgon's nephew and part-time-repentant kinslayer
Naria - Family's goat herder
the phantom - Ecthelion's hotheaded nephew and personal squire
Roa_Aoife - Elenwë's personal guard
Valier - Elenwe's personal chamber maid

Day2 has now begun.

Penguins stop PMing.
Everybody start discussing.

[Lalaith]

Good morning/evening, fellow elves and werePingus.
Well, it is as I feared. Poor Kitanna, a hollow, non-existential shell of her former self. It is good that we got a penguin but not so good that we had to out both the ranger and the seer on the way.
Well, on to the business of toDay.
Firstly, and most importantly: the person I dreamt of last night was not on the evil side. What else s/he might be, I will of course not divulge. The question is, whether should I reveal the identity of the elf in question.
I am inclined to reveal - even though, now Kit is no longer among us, it endangers the individual concerned. Because it will give the innocents someone to rally round toMorrow, after I am dead. However, I would like to hear a few opinions first.

Secondly, and less importantly, I’d just like to explain, in case some of you were shaking their heads at my recklessness yesterday, the strategy I was trying to carry out – a strategy which alas backfired. In the past, if I die before the end, it is usually at the hands of the wolves rather than the lynch mob, because I am generally considered innocent. So in an attempt to ensure safer nights, I tried to pick a few fights and garner more suspicion during the Day than I usually do. I also thought that voicing my suspicion of a WP might make the WPs more reluctant to kill me, even if I didn’t succeed in getting the WP in question lynched.
However, I was clearly a little too successful on the suspicion front..
...speaking of which, Diamond, my dear old bean, are you familiar with the works of Douglas Adams? I am starting to feel like the bowl of petunias (aka Agrajag) to your Arthur Dent.
I’ll come back with more once I get some feedback on the revelation question.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, after what happened yesterday, I can't say I'm surprised at Kitanna's death. I assume Lal will tell us her dream when she signs on. Even if she dreamed of an innocent, we at least have decided the were-penguins' moves for the next two nights. Well done, Kitanna and Lal.

In the mean time, I'm going to go back and sort Boromir's reactions to others, and other's reactions to Boromir, and I encourage others to do the same.

EDIT: Cross-posted

Lal, if you think the person is likely to end up lynched, reveal them. otherwise, it might be pointless. However, keep in mind that the goal of the individual villager is not survival forself, but survival for the village. If you can keep us from lynching an innocent person it will help us narrow the field of suspects, if even by a little.

[Valier]

I agree I think you should tell us Lalaith who the Ordo is unless they are gifted. that will clear up at least something. It totally sucks that we have virtually lost two of our gifteds on the first day, but at least we got a WP in there. If we know another innocent it may help in narrowing this down.

[Roa_Aoife]

Actually, if the person is the hunter, you should definitely tell us who they are but not tell us that they are the hunter. The hunter is no good unless they get killed. Otherwise, I don't think it will hurt the village to have a known innocent.

[the phantom]

Tell us, Lalaith.

Sure, that guarantees the WPs will kill him/her, but at least the village will have one person tomorrow that has an agenda they can trust, and can rule out one person when rounding up suspects.

Kitanna died to give you another dream. You might as well tell it. We'll look like idiots if, three days down the road, we lynch someone and after the game we learn that the person was a proven innocent.

[the phantom]

Just so everyone knows, it was primarily this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473291&postcount=46) post that made me suspect Boro of being a WP. There was just something about the way he listed his suspects and the way he addressed their guilt and innocence that set off an alarm. When I read posts, I try to look past their actual words and get a feel for what they're really saying, or where they are trying to lead me.

I didn't really have time to do that yesterday, but when I skimmed that post by Boro, it was like I didn't even have to try and interpret it. I'm guessing it's because he and I are similar in some ways and also because the two of us have been Wolves together in past villages. His post said to me "I'm a WP and I'm trying to hide my fellow WPs on my lists, trying to put some seeds of accusations in the minds of others without coming out and doing it, trying to sound generally positive about people so as to not attract a backlash, and definitely trying to show how truly clueless I am as to the identity of the WPs."

It reminded me of my thoughts when I've been a wolf.

I picked up on that sort of mood a bit from Ang too which is why I listed him with Boro as a suspect near the end of yesterday.

Right now I'm trying to analyze the voting order. I'm thinking I'll have time to do that and post some thoughts a bit later.

Any theories about the Boro post I linked to, and where on his lists he put his fellow WPs?

[Macalaure]

Finally some time to really read through everything that has been posted yesterday. I think I like nights, if only there wasn't this, well, bloodshed at the end of it. *shudders*
Poor Kitanna. I regret ever having voted for her. She wouldn't have revealed herself if I didn't.

One thing that troubled me when I reread, was that known villain Boromir88 was very quick at calling me innocent, for no real reason. Now I realized that, too, Ang, Diamond, phantom and Firefoot thought me innocent, all for little or no reasons (I'm quite curious about what tp might bring up today). Interestingly, except Firefoot each of them is on the top half of my suspicion list. On the other hand, spawn and Valier, who are in the lower half, raised more or less reasonable concerns about me.

Let's have a word about Anguirel.
He defended the vicious Boro against Roa. Maybe, like admittedly myself, he was just fond of Boro's innocence and found, again like me (though I didn't write about it), Roa's points to be weak. Then came Post 84 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473369&postcount=84). So Boro didn't need to defend himself, yet Ang does so for several posts? Irony? A slip? Maybe...

But later he says he doesn't like Lalaith to be lynched, at a time, when Boro was still/already in danger.

Then he voted for Kitanna. But then, of course, I did, too.

I hate people who are suspicious and unsuspicious at the same time. It makes me suspicious about them.


Now, this was supposed to be followed by an elaborate analysis on why I don't believe Kitanna to be the true ranger. So much for that. I still don't understand why she revealed herself, she wasn't pressed so severely. She could be alive now and still saved Lalaith.


Lalaith, whether you reveal the innocent or not, I don't think we will rally around him/her. Could be the cobbler, after all.
I agree on Roa. Don't tell us whether s/he's the hunter. That will give the penguins something to chew on and the innocent a chance not to be killed this night.

[Diamond18]

Firstly, and most importantly: the person I dreamt of last night was not on the evil side. What else s/he might be, I will of course not divulge. The question is, whether should I reveal the identity of the elf in question.
I am inclined to reveal - even though, now Kit is no longer among us, it endangers the individual concerned. Because it will give the innocents someone to rally round toMorrow, after I am dead. However, I would like to hear a few opinions first.

If it was me, go ahead, because I have this feeling I'm more useful as a half-witted known innocent than an unwitting cobbler stumbling around, as I seemed to have been yesterDay. If you dreamed of a different ordo, I really can't say.... I suppose, if I were you, I'd keep mum unless it seemed that person was about to get lynched. If it's the Hunter, I'd keep mum either way, I think, because they might have a good chance of nabbing a Penguin should they be lynched. But, as I'm not the Hunter, they may have a different opinion. So I'm rambling pointlessly. *sigh* The one time I was a Hunter I was rather suicidal and it turned out badly, so maybe sparing the Hunter from doing something stupid (apologies to our Hunter, whoever you may be, you smart person you) is worth a reveal.

By the way, now that I see you're the Seer, your strategy yesterDay makes perfect sense. I should have seen it, or at least guessed it, before you revealed, but I'll plead general paranoia and temporary stupidity due to being time strapped. :rolleyes:

However, I was clearly a little too successful on the suspicion front..
...speaking of which, Diamond, my dear old bean, are you familiar with the works of Douglas Adams? I am starting to feel like the bowl of petunias (aka Agrajag) to your Arthur Dent.

Yes, I am familiar with them. I've read them all! I know Arthur Dent very well (and identify with him endlessly) but the bowl of cherries is slipping from my memory.

I bookmarked all of Boromir's posts, and intend a read-though/analysis. It is a bit unlucky to have two of our gifteds revealed and one down for the count, but on the up side, I now I have plenty of solid info to go on, which makes me feel less like whimpering and more like analyzing.

EDIT -- X-posted with, like, everyone since Lal. :rolleyes: Also, bad English, and not the musical kind.

[the phantom]

Ang, Diamond, phantom and Firefoot thought me innocent, all for little or no reasons (I'm quite curious about what tp might bring up today)
I'll answer that later. Er... actually, I suppose I have time right now.

My response to you dates back to a Werewolf plagued village long ago in which my ancestors lived (WW III). A fellow by the name of Fordim put forth a Seer protection plan, and the responses it got were interesting. My ancestor was an Innocent in that village, and tried as hard as he could to determine if the plan would truly help the Seer (because as an Innocent he obviously cared about the Seer's well-being).

For a time he went along with it just to test reactions, but then came out strongly against it and pointed out the odds of someone making an incorrect dream declaration, thus narrowing the Seer list for the wolves.

You, Mac, did the same exact thing yesterday. You went out of your way to point out the danger of the plan, even going so far as to do a probability calculation. In other words, you were behaving like me when I was innocent and a similar plan was introduced.

That's why I quickly moved you into the innocent column.

[Lalaith]

That's why I quickly moved you into the innocent column.

And you, my dear phantom, have been moved into mine. I dreamt of you last night, and as I seem to have your permission, I reveal this now.
No Mac, phantom cannot be a cobbler, the rules for this game state that if I dream of the cob, I am informed of the fact. But whether phantom is anything more, I leave for the penguins to find out, if they dare.
I thought long and hard about who to dream of, as this would be my last. In that horridly churlish and ungrateful spirit that WW breeds in one, I pondered on both my allies of yesterday, Ang and Roa. If either were a WP who suspected my pursuit of Boro as Seerish behaviour, it would make them look very good to either defend me, as Ang did, or help me pursue my quarry, as Roa did.
Of course, both have perfectly good alternative reasons for their actions. I have had reason to be grateful for Ang's chivalrous nature in past villages, so his defence of me was not unexpected. Roa could easily have picked up on dodgy stuff in Boro's posts off her own bat, as Phantom has just explained he did.
So in the end I chose Phantom for the following reasons:
1. Because I worried about his "whoops I didn't read all the thread" vote for Boro, it made him look rather good, and therefore, in my eyes, suspicious.
2. If he turned out to be innocent, and thus the known innocent on Day Three, he would probably encourage the village to do something sensible.

[Diamond18]

One thing that troubled me when I reread, was that known villain Boromir88 was very quick at calling me innocent, for no real reason. Now I realized that, too, Ang, Diamond, phantom and Firefoot thought me innocent, all for little or no reasons (I'm quite curious about what tp might bring up today).

Hmm, well, I can't speak for others, but you just seemed a bit too guileless and overt in all your opinions/thoughts and that's why you felt innocent to me. Problem is, I felt more or less the same way about Boromir. So, if it makes you feel better, I am now paranoid about you. :D

But seriously, it is quite easy for a newbie to be very quiet and sail along for a bit on the "newbie" card. People will chalk it up to the person being cautious or overwhelmed, and magnaimously "give them a chance" for at least a few days. So, if a newbie is a wolf, their compatriots may council them to take advantage of this and lay low no matter how competent or comfortable they may actually feel. You didn't do that, hence, I didn't see much contrivance in your posts. You seemed to be operating on your own.

All of which explains my thinking yesterDay. Boro's guilt has shaken my confidence in my gut feelings from yesterDay. The one thing I did get right was Kitanna, though. I knew she wasn't being careful and quiet enough to be her usual evil self, but then, I have experience with Kitanna. Still, I'd like to think that if I'd been thinking clearer I would have seen through Boro. *grumble grumble*


Lalaith, whether you reveal the innocent or not, I don't think we will rally around him/her. Could be the cobbler, after all.

No, s/he couldn't. Says so in the roolz.


In this game, the cobbler will be seen as the cobbler by the seer when dreamed of, but counted as an ordo in the tallies.

edit, X-posted with tp and Lal

[Lalaith]

For Diamond, with reference to this and the previous WW game...(look under Agrajag) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minor_characters_from_The_Hitchhiker's_Guide_to_th e_Galaxy)

(It came to mind when I said "oh no not again" yesterday. It was what the petunias said as they fell through space...)

[Diamond18]

For Diamond, with reference to this and the previous WW game...(look under Agrajag) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minor_characters_from_The_Hitchhiker's_Guide_to_th e_Galaxy)

(It came to mind when I said "oh no not again" yesterday. It was what the petunias said as they fell through space...)

Oh dear, yes, now I do remember. Happily, though, I haven't actually suceeded in killing you either time. Does it mean anything that I wouldn't have voted for you that last day, had I actually showed up in time to vote? :rolleyes:

[Roa_Aoife]

This is a quick summary of Boromir's reactions and other's reactions to him. I've noted all our "knowns" and listed the overlapping behavior. If I've made a mistake in someone's view on the matter, I apologize (this was done quickly). Please feel free to correct it as needed.

NOTE: This is as things were previous to Lal's reveal (except for the phantom, as he crossposted his suspicion with the reveal and all the chaos that ensued)

People Boromir Suspected

Lal
Roa
Kitanna
Ang

It should be noted that two of the above are known innocents

People Boromir though innocent

Valier
Mac
Jenny
Spawn
Eonwe

People Boromir wasn't sure about

phantom
Firefoot
Naria
Encaitare
Diamond

Note: one of the above is a known innocent

People who suspected Boromir

Lal
Roa
Phantom

Note: Two of the above are known innocents

People who thought Boromir innocent

Valier
Ang
Jenny
Diamond
Mac

People who didn't know either way

Eonwe
Naria
Kitanna
Spawn
Firefoot
Enca

Note: one of the above is known innocent

Overlaps

Mutually suspicious

Lal
Roa

Note: One of the above is known innocent

Mutually Trusting

Valier
Jenny
Mac

Mutually Ignored/ Unsure

Firefoot
Naria
Eonwe
Enca

[Lalaith]

Oh, and one other thing, before I go:
Mac, you say that Kitanna didn't have to reveal herself. Well, I can see why she did. Things were getting very fraught, right up at deadline, and we were considering falling back on lynching her if people didn't come forward to lynch/retract on Boro. I wonder if at least one of the people around at the time was a WP, biding their time to see which way the votes were going. It was looking pretty good for the WPs at one point, both the front runners (ie Kit and I) in the voting being innocents.
Any thoughts, elves?

[Naria]

Well this looks awfully grim for us. Yeah we caught a wp, but at the seer's and ranger's expense. And now one of the two(kitanna) is dead toDay. Not good at all. Btw can anyone answer one question that has been confusing me since it happened. Why did Kitanna feel the need to reveal herself? Hmmmm....maybe I'll find the answer myself when I go back and reread everything. I'll be back after I'm done.

[Macalaure]

Thanks to the phantom and Diamond. This now may look suicidal, but I think I would have done the same if I had some secret feathers. I couldn't have remained quiet, and messing up a plan by not just saying NO (like Boro and Ang(!) ) but giving random pros and cons - that's me. :p

Oh, and I am overwhelmed. I'm just acting. :smokin:
You seem to see hints in posts that I can't even see when pointed out.

Also, and I'm going to need a mod ruling on this one, if I remember correctly since the Cobbler is an ordinary villager, if the Seer dreams of the cobbler all the seer is told is that person is innocent. Since the cobbler is a villager...just a twisted villager.
Somehow, this kept sticking in the back of my head. Curse you, penguin!

What troubled me about Kitanna was that in one post she said she saves her retraction for possibly retracting on herself, and in the next it's "I need to remain alive - only I can save Lal."
Made no sense to me, but doesn't matter anymore, now.

EDIT: Well, goodnight. Read you tomorrow.

[Roa_Aoife]

Why did Kitanna feel the need to reveal herself? Hmmmm....maybe I'll find the answer myself when I go back and reread everything. I'll be back after I'm done.

Well, it started with Ang, previous to Lal's reveal, who decided to try to lynch Kitanna to save both Boromir and Lal. Mac joined it, though he'll have to speak for his own reasons. After Lal's reveal, we were concerned, since Lal was leading the votes and there wa so little time left, that we would lynch our seer. At that point, Kitanna was second in votes, and she said that if enough people didn't show up to vote Boromir, she would change to vote for herself. Later on, Lal and I agreed with this sentiment, and stated that if no one had voted for Boromir by a few minutes till, we would change our votes to Kitanna as well, to save our seer. Then Kitanna pointed out the fatal flaw in all of this by revealing herself. I don't know what she was thinking when she offered to vote for herself in Lal's place, but perhaps she wasn't expecting it to get to that point. I guess as time drew closer, she realized that it might, and decided that she needed to reveal to protect both herself and Lal.

[the phantom]

I dreamt of you last night
Well, that's fine and all- I often dream of you too, my lovely little Lalaith, but I don't go telling everyone. ;)

Roa- nice list. Thanks for doing that.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the votes fell like this-

(PI=Proven Innocent, WP=Werepenguin)

Ang for Eonwe---------- Eonwe-1
Enca for Lal (PI)-------- Lal (PI)-1, Eonwe-1
Jenn for tp (PI)--------- Lal (PI)-1, tp (PI)-1, Eonwe-1
Spawn for Kit (PI)------ Lal (PI)-1, Kit (PI)-1, tp (PI)-1, Eonwe-1
Firefoot for Lal (PI)----- Lal (PI)-2, Kit (PI)-1, tp (PI)-1, Eonwe-1
Lal (PI) for Boro (WP)--- Lal (PI)-2, Kit (PI)-1, tp (PI)-1, Boro (WP)-1, Eonwe-1
Ang for Kit (PI) (RETRACT Eonwe)--- Lal (PI)-2, Kit (PI)-2, tp (PI)-1, Boro (WP)-1
Jenn for Roa (RETRACT tp)--- Lal (PI)-2, Kit (PI)-2, Boro (WP)-1, Roa-1
Boro (WP) for Lal (PI)--- Lal (PI)-3, Kit (PI)-2, Boro (WP)-1, Roa-1
Roa for Boro (WP)------- Lal (PI)-3, Kit (PI)-2, Boro (WP)-2, Roa-1
Di for Lal (PI)------------ Lal (PI)-4, Kit (PI)-2, Boro (WP)-2, Roa-1
Kit (PI) for Ang---------- Lal (PI)-4, Kit (PI)-2, Boro (WP)-2, Roa-1, Ang-1
Mac for Kit (PI)---------- Lal (PI)-4, Kit (PI)-3, Boro (WP)-2, Roa-1, Ang-1
Val for Ang--------------- Lal (PI)-4, Kit (PI)-3, Boro (WP)-2, Ang-2, Roa-1
Val for Boro (WP) (RETRACT Ang)--- Lal (PI)-4, Kit (PI)-3, Boro (WP)-3, Ang-1, Roa-1
Naria for Lal (PI)-------- Lal (PI)-5, Kit (PI)-3, Boro (WP)-3, Ang-1, Roa-1
Mac for Boro (WP) (RETRACT Kit)--- Lal (PI)-5, Boro (WP)-4, Kit (PI)-2, Ang-1, Roa-1
Naria for Boro (WP) (RETRACT Lal)--- Boro (WP)-5, Lal (PI)-4, Kit (PI)-2, Ang-1, Roa-1
tp (PI) for Boro (WP)--- Boro (WP)-6, Lal (PI)-4, Kit (PI)-2, Ang-1, Roa-1
Kit (PI) for Boro (WP)--- Boro (WP)-7, Lal (PI)-4, Kit (PI)-2, Ang-1, Roa-1

I'll make some detailed comments on the voting later. For right now, I'll just say that from the voting alone, Valier looks suspicious. Anguirel, Diamond, and Mac also make votes that would be the logical vote for a WP to make at the time it was cast. Firefoot's too, though a bit less so.

[Roa_Aoife]

I have a question for those who have played with Boromir (I've only known him as sub-mod):

Two of the people Boromir suspected are known innocents. This casts a bit of spotlight on myself and Ang. I know I'm innocent, but no one else does (except the wolves) but is Boromir the type of wolf to cast suspicion on a comrade or the kind to direct attention away from his comrades? I wouldn't be surprised if it was the former, since that's what I would do, but if it is the latter, then I'd like to be able to put Ang on my "slightly less suspicious list" since it's kind of short at the moment.

[Diamond18]

I've only played with Boro when he was the Seer. Which is making it a bit difficult for me to glean anything useful from his posts. I may dig through the Grimoire to find games in which he was a Wolf. But since tp played with him as a wolf, and is a known innocent whom we can trust, that seems like an awful lot of work, so I think I'll hold off for the moment and see what tp says.

[the phantom]

I'm a little busy right now, but I'll try and dig some stuff up later. I have a historical book at my disposal containing snippets of private messages sent by Wolf-Boro to Wolf-Phantom and Wolf-Lalaith in WW X.

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, then, in themeantime, we should move ahead with our analysis. A couple people are pinging on my radar screen- Ang and Jenny- and I'm going to look further into them. (Hence why I want to know about Boro-pengiun's gaming habits.)

I have a historical book at my disposal containing snippets of private messages sent by Wolf-Boro to Wolf-Phantom and Wolf-Lalaith in WW X.

I don't want to be picky concerning this, but I don't think we're allowed to use pm's as evidence, just as we can't reference other threads outside of previous games, though we'd need a mod call on this one.

[JennyHallu]

Hey I'm around...but I'm likely to be very quiet toDay. And I'm tipsy. Don't mix Scottish ancestry and whiskey...makes me a snappish drunk. But it was tasty.

Anywho...my readings over Boro's posting made Mac ping, once again, on my radar screen. No offense to your test, TP, but Boro certainly didn't expect to get killed yesterday, and it just seemed that he emphasized and re-emphasized Mac's newbieness and innocence. Made me nervous.

[the phantom]

Anywho...my readings over Boro's posting made Mac ping, once again, on my radar screen. No offense to your test, TP, but Boro certainly didn't expect to get killed yesterday, and it just seemed that he emphasized and re-emphasized Mac's newbieness and innocence. Made me nervous.
I'll take a look at those posts later. There may be something to that. Of course, Boro emphasizing Mac's innocence could have been done just so we'd lynch an innocent Mac. You know how nasty those penguins are.

And I don't want you to think that I'm not considering Mac whatsoever, though. If he was completely off my list, I wouldn't have included his name in my list of possible Penguinish votes.

And about the history book I have containing interviews with Boro88's great great grandfather and known werewolf, Boro85, I think I'm allowed to use it, Roa.

The rule about not using pms to verify what someone is saying- it seems fairly obvious to me that the rule is meant to guard against someone giving a direct quote from the pm sent to them by Nogrod or Lommy that assigned them their role. I doubt they had in mind a villager recalling a past conversation with another villager that was not in any way written with this current village in mind.

[Diamond18]

I'm in the midst of reading over TiG X right now.... Tell me, did any of you post PM's at the end? If so, they've become public knowledge just like any game posts from that game, so I would think could be used just the same.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm in the midst of reading over TiG X right now.... Tell me, did any of you post PM's at the end? If so, they've become public knowledge just like any game posts from that game, so I would think could be used just the same.

Caran did, at the end, but Boromir wasn't in that game that I recall. The Wolves were Jenny, Caran, and myself, the seer was Naria, and the ranger was Zali.

I'm not finished with my summaries and analysis, but I need sleep now, so I'll try to finish them tommorrow (RL).

The rule about not using pms to verify what someone is saying- it seems fairly obvious to me that the rule is meant to guard against someone giving a direct quote from the pm sent to them by Nogrod or Lommy that assigned them their role. I doubt they had in mind a villager recalling a past conversation with another villager that was not in any way written with this current village in mind.

As I said, I'd like a mod ruling on it- I'm all for catching wolves, but I'm more for playing by the rules. Honestly, you could just tell us what he's prone to do- there's no reall reason to use them.

[Encaitare]

I feel that Boromir is a savvy enough player to have placed a fellow wolf in his suspicious list, which leaves us only with Roa and Anguirel. Nothing's definite, of course, but it is still a possibility.

Roa

Was the second person out of 7 to vote for Boro. Lalaith was first, and Roa cast her vote long before Boro's penguin-ness was revealed. Roa said that she was suspicious of Boromir since his second post, which read:

Some quick comments on people so far before I must be off...

Valier and Eonwe are acting too strange to be evil penguins. I don't think wps would act in this manner in the very early goings of the game.

Firefoot brought up useful comment on the cobbler, one which I completely forgot about, seeing as I have no remembrance of a cobbler for a very very long time now. So Firefoot I'm ok with for now, a very logical sensible person to have around.

I can't find much significance in Roa's, phantom's, or Diamond's, posts yet, so there's nothing for me to go off of.

I shall now depart.

In post #72, Roa explains why she found Boro so supicious. In the post quotd above, Boro said that her posts were not very significant, but later cited one of those posts as grounds for suspecting her. He was also contradictory in other small ways. At the time I felt like Roa was being nitpicky with the way she compared every little thing he said, but now I'm glad she did. With the way Roa and Boro were going back and forth so heatedly yesterDay, I think it's safe to say that Roa is innocent.

Anguirel

He writes in a Day 1 post:

Anyway, at this stage I'd rather have no hints at all. We shouldn't be too absorbed in our assets-the Gifted Ones will make themselves known at the right time-instead we should have an eye to our insidious enemies.

Incidentally, phantom old chap, are you still into killing Ordinary Elves on Day One to prevent the accidental lynching of a Gifted? I'm not.

Perhaps Ang and the phantom are just two very different players with two very different styles. Yet I feel like the suggestion that there be no attempt to divert attention away from the gifteds is a bit suspicious.

So with little time to lose I am going to have to vote for Eonwe with the shoddy justification of his quietness.

It's true that Eonwe was very quiet, only posting a couple of times without any analysis, and didn't even cast a vote. But this makes me wonder why Ang chose to vote for Eonwe when he wasn't the only quiet player. I hadn't even posted at all by the time Ang voted. I suppose it was the lack of substance in the posts rather than the absence which made Ang make the choice he did.

Conclusion about Ang: inconclusive. :rolleyes: He doesn't seem terribly suspicious to me at present, but I am not placing him on my probably-innocent-list.

[Diamond18]

Okey dokey, I've read through TiG X and gleaned just a couple things from it. In the early stages of the game Boro mostly ignored his fellow wolves or voiced only slight suspicion of them -- they were never amongst his top suspects. He barely interacted with Lalaith but did exchange some posts with tp. He latched onto the innocent Kuru and for most of the game treated him as innocent, only voicing any real suspicions late in the game, and only backed off when Kuru revealed himself as the Hunter. Other players he seemed to vary on as one would expect a convincing sort of innocent to do... I didn't find much that seemed to matter on that score. Some interesting early posts of Boro's were: #107 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=414862&postcount=107
) #200 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=415318&postcount=200) & #256. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=415771&postcount=256)

Note that in #200 he names phantom among the least suspicious and Lalaith only in the somehwat suspicious.

So, to compare that to this game...

Borrowing Roa's handy list:

People Boromir though innocent

Valier
Mac
Jenny
Spawn
Eonwe

People Boromir wasn't sure about

phantom
Firefoot
Naria
Encaitare
Diamond

If Boro is following his usual wolvish behavior, then it's QUITE likely that there is one Werepenguin per group. From the second group I can rule out tp and myself, which leads me to want to look closely at Naria, Firefoot, and Enca. Unforunately, we have no knowns from the first group (unless you are an innocent in that group, then you can rule out yourself, happily). But I am fairly certain that the two wolves do not share a grouping.

If Boro was following his usual wolvish behavior, this group is looking pretty good at the moment:

People Boromir Suspected

Lal
Roa
Kitanna
Ang

Well, obviously Lal and Kit are innocent. I'm inclined to look favorably on Ang and Roa for the time being, since Boro has shown a proclivity for being less supicious of his fellows in the early stages.

Of course, as I'm sure some are eager to point out, there is one inherent flaw in looking too closely at the parallels between TIG X and our current game. Boro may not have been behaving exactly the same. Boro has only been a werecreature once before, so we do not know whether he is the sort of mix it up or stay the same when evil. I'm inclined to think he's more likely to stay the same, but that's just me. Also, he most definitely had different compatriots for this game since Lal and tp are both innocents. Unless, that is, Lal is lying a blue streak and all three were once more teammates, oh horror of horrors, but as we have had no true seer step forward to declaim her, I'm not going to weird myself out with that prospect too much.

[the phantom]

I'm in the midst of reading over TiG X right now.... Tell me, did any of you post PM's at the end?
Yes. I used to write a review after every game of WW I was in. In this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=417853&postcount=427) post, I have a link to the page containing my review. It's public knowledge.

[the phantom]

Okay, now I'll quickly explain the comment I made earlier.
For right now, I'll just say that from the voting alone, Valier looks suspicious. Anguirel, Diamond, and Mac also make votes that would be the logical vote for a WP to make at the time it was cast. Firefoot's too, though a bit less so.
Why are their votes Penguinish, you ask?

Here are my reasons for suspecting their votes (in order from most suspicious to least).

1) Valier
She voted for Anguirel when the voting stood at-
Lalaith-4
Kitanna-3
Boro-2
Roa-1
Ang-1

She cast the vote when there were only three non-voters left. At that point, Lalaith had not revealed, and so it was a solid bet that, with two people already above him, Boro was safe, and thus a fellow Penguin's vote was not necessary to save him. A smart penguin would probably not vote for Lal or Kit (don't want to be part of lynching an innocent), would not vote for Boro (too risky to vote for him at that point), and would not vote for someone who had no votes at all (it would look like a throwaway vote).

The perfect scenario would be to vote for a Penguin with only one vote. It would create seperation without much of a risk. Is that what happened? Are Valier and Ang Penguins? We'll find out eventually.

2) Anguirel
He cast a very early vote for Eonwe. That's not a huge risk though, because we have retractable votes. As soon as Boro received a vote, Ang switched his vote to Kitanna, tying her for the early lead with Lalaith at two votes a piece. Padding Lalaith's lead would've been a bit too bold for a Penguin, so Ang did the next best thing and elevated another innocent into the lead.

3) Diamond
When Boro moved up to two votes with Kit and just behind Lal (who had three), Di stepped in and bumped Lal back up to a two point lead.

4) Mac
When Mac steps in it is a decent bet that Boro is safe (down 4-2 to Lal), and so Mac votes for Kit, bumping her up from 2 to 3. That seems like the sort of thing a Penguin would do. Instead of voting for the leader and getting the hands dirty, or appearing like you're trying to pad the lead to save a fellow penguin, you instead elevate another innocent up to near the top.

5) Firefoot
She was the first to stack her vote onto someone who already had a vote. Also, she never tried to retract despite the fact that she had voted for the Seer. That doesn't sound like Ff (though I guess it's possible she was just busy).

[Lalaith]

Lal is lying a blue streak and all three were once more teammates
Now wouldn't that be fun. But alas, no. This is my last Day among you...I will die, Di, tonight, at the hands of those avian monstrosities.
Speaking of which, (ie the fact that we were all teammates) I too have my opinions on Boro as a wolf, although no-one seems to have had the courtesy to ask me for them, ahem.
I think Boro's wolvish behaviour would depend on who his team-mates were. The plan, when we were all wolves together that time, was that phantom would do his usual thing, and I would lie low. This seemed to work, so he never had to attack either of us, although I remember him saying he would certainly have no compunction in rounding on one of us if necessary. He would also I think quite understand if, say, a Roa-style wolf decided to attack him.
What I do find unlikely is that he would go on about Mac's innocence in that obvious way if Mac were one of his team-mates.

I like your list Phantom. In Ang's defence, I would repeat that his defence of me was not unexpected. A guilty Ang might have copied this behaviour possibly, voted for Kit saying "I hope this saves Lalaith", and then disappeared pleading revision duties or something. But I don't think he would have stuck around trying to convince everybody else, as well, in the way he did. But I could be wrong.
(And if I am, I will make a point of calling him Angurl-iel for a long time after this.)

[Lalaith]

she saves her retraction for possibly retracting on herself, and in the next it's "I need to remain alive - only I can save Lal."

Again, I feel I must defend the brave, dead Kit. She had to say she was prepared to retract to herself, otherwise she would have looked extremely WP-ish and we would have lynched her anyway.

I also must give credit to Roa's very useful postings today, - but also giving credit to her WW brilliance, she is one of the few players here who could carry off the double-act of being so helpful and still being a WP.

[Anguirel]

I must say, Kitanna's death scene was one of the most...disturbing I've ever read. Mindlessness. Urgh. Certainly, penguins that fester kill far worse than wolves.

Now that the phantom is a proven innocent, I have a cunning plan. phantom me hearty, be as utterly patronising, superior and irritating as possible. Then maybe the two remaining recreant scum won't be able to resist temptation, will kill you next Night and grant Lalaith another dream. Hmph. Maybe not.

More seriously, I have a good deal of conduct to explain last night. The question that seems to be being posed most widely is: what was the point of that first vote for Eonwe?

Well, I said it was shoddy at the time. Both Enca and Naria were admittedly as quiet or quieter than Eonwe, so my stated reasoning of Eonwe's silence was bilge. I can only plead the following facts-

1. I was in a great hurry. It was developing into rather a tricky evening. Ergo I had little time for analysis.

2. At that point I actually wanted to accuse Kitanna, but felt doing so without devoting time to building a proper case would be a cop-out. Eonwe was my back up. (Of course, I ended up voting for Kitanna on pretty dodgy evidence anyway, in the event, due to mistaken hype about the deadline.)

3. I was pretty sure Enca would turn up and contribute later, while Eonwe-who I know as a veteran deadline-dodger-might well have already said his peace. And as for Naria, to be honest I'd forgotten she was playing...though as it turned out she certainly made the final moments rather more dramatic...

So, yes, last night was a total mess, probably the greatest disgrace I've mired myself in since the Shamville days. What did I say about Boromir again?

"Given the extreme frailty of the evidence against him, it's quite odd that he's bothering to defend himself at all."

At the time I thought it was rather a bon mot. Doh.

I think, however, that my suspicions of Diamond may not be quite so wildly misguided. More on that anon.

[Lalaith]

Further to my previous post about Kitanna having to reveal: rather than ponder the wherefores of this, we would be better employed inspecting the circumstances which forced her out of the closet.
I'm talking about the people who were hanging around at the end of deadline, but not coming forward, once I had revealed. An honest person would, under such circumstances, immediately declare their presence, and suggest/ask how their vote might best be put to use, or perhaps more impulsively, put that vote to use immediately.

I will, later, go back and inspect the course of events, with timings, to get a better grasp of this.

[Nogrod]

The rule about not using pms to verify what someone is saying- it seems fairly obvious to me that the rule is meant to guard against someone giving a direct quote from the pm sent to them by Nogrod or Lommy that assigned them their role. I doubt they had in mind a villager recalling a past conversation with another villager that was not in any way written with this current village in mind.the phantom is right. All past conversations between any one of you can be used. Obviously the moral question is not removed with a ruling like this - so if someome has sent you a private message, s/he has assumed it to be private... but that's another matter already.

The ruling only denies the use of any PM's that you have sent or received from the mods just before or during the game.

[Firefoot]

First off, I do have a lot to say. But I am currently dead tired (was up all night - long story), and many of my comments will be waiting for later - hopefully sometime toDay. Some of my thoughts have already been stated by phantom and Roa especially - his point about Valier was particularly resonant. I also noticed Ang's vote as being rather suspicious, but based on his posting, I'm not at all convinced he is guilty. I'm thinking it was more or less bad timing for him.Also, she never tried to retract despite the fact that she had voted for the Seer. That doesn't sound like Ff (though I guess it's possible she was just busy). Take the busy option. After I voted, I left.

Something more comprehensive later. I'm not thinking at all right now.

[Lalaith]

Nine of our 15 were definitely around after I revealed last night:
Kitanna, Lalaith and Phantom, although that's not relevant as we are all PIs.
Roa (who voted for Boro just after 10pm, saying she had to leave, but then stuck around)
Jenny (who had already used her retractable at the time I revealed)
Anguirel (who left just after the revelation and before voting deadline, if he is to be believed)
Naria, Valier, Macalaure.
Not around, apparently, or at least not posting: Eonwe (the only non-voter), Enca, Firefoot, Diamond, Spawn, (all of whom I think had said, as they voted, that they were going and not coming back) and the werepenguin Boro himself.
I revealed at 10.42pm.
Kitanna comes out and says she is around, but is understandably reluctant to change her vote to herself. Anguirel says good luck and good night (how could you have left when it was getting so exciting, Ang?)
Valier was the first to place or change her vote after I revealed, at 10.48pm. She went straight for Boromir, rather than ask what to do or plump for the Kit option. Does that make her look more, or less, guilty? I am inclined to say slightly less. Kit was ahead in the voting, and she had gone for Kit, (who had not said she was the ranger at this point) Valier could have subsequently argued that it seemed the only way to save the Seer at the time.
At 10.51pm, a whole bunch of stuff happens all at once. Kit reveals she is the Ranger. Mac retracts from Kit to Boro (but remains suspicious) and Naria comes on and makes her interesting vote, which she later says was a cross-posting mistake.
Roa wonders if she (Naria) does not believe me, and tells her "if you do not vote to save the Seer, we will know what you are." (Interesting that both Mac and Naria are puzzled why Kit revealed, although they were both around right at deadline and knew how tense things got...)
Then Naria changes her vote, Phantom comes on and votes for Boro, Kit retracts to Boro and everything falls into place.

[Anguirel]

To be completely honest, I bade you goodnight at post #105, as there was little more I could do or say, but followed avidly till post #120, when my, er, weariness came upon me [network shut down].

[JennyHallu]

Like I said last night, I'm not going to be around toDay. So this is my vote:

++Mac, just Mac.

Because I really think Boro's posts point to him as a Penguin.

[Anguirel]

Ooo. Impetuous, but I don't see much wrong with that per se . This quiet day needs a bit of shaking about if we're to get something useful and considered out of it.

My philippic against Diamond is taking some time to brew. But it is coming...

[Macalaure]

Yay! My first vote!

I somehow feel the need to explain what I did last day and what was happening from my point of view. There was a lot of cross-posting, I hope I get it all right.


When I voted, it was Lal 4, Kit 2, Boro 2.

To me, Lal felt weird, but not necessarily guilty, Kit was suspicious and Boro looked quite innocent.

So, to give Lal a better chance of surviving, I voted for Kitanna, deeming her the lesser loss. (34 min until deadline)

Then, Valier chose Ang, making Lal reveal herself. (18 min until deadline)

I was pretty stunned, but there was still time, 3 votes, and a lot of retractions left. I was pondering my options, preferring to go after Boromir.

Valier retracted to Boromir next: Lal 4, Boro 3, Kit 3. Thus I retracted to Boromir as well, making it 4-4-2.
That I made Roa's and Lalaith's possible retractions useless by this didn't appear to me then. I was just hoping that somebody more will choose Boro (didn't expect Kitanna to do that, as I still didn't trusted her).

While I typed, Naria stepped in and Kitanna revealed herself. (9 min until deadline)
Had I retracted earlier, it would have taken pressure off her. She could have retracted to Boromir, put him in the lead and everything would have been fine.
Let's assign bad timing to Mordor, where it belongs.

The vote of phantom and the retractions of Naria and Kitanna then saved the day.

Rereading it all, it was quite close. I didn't feel it that bad at the time.

Further to my previous post about Kitanna having to reveal: rather than ponder the wherefores of this, we would be better employed inspecting the circumstances which forced her out of the closet.
Seconded, though I'm still at a complete loss about Post 125 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473420&postcount=125) (before?).

[Lalaith]

I expect she meant she'd switch to Boro. But don't agonize over it, she WAS the Ranger, it's official...

[Lalaith]

I just had a thought, about how penguins might vote, with regard to the new rules about the Logical Hunter.
If the hunter is lynched, her pick will go with her if s/he has voted for the hunter on that particular Day.

So, with this in mind, a penguin might be reluctant to be on the "winning team" when it comes to lynch-voting, as an innocent lynch victim might be the hunter.

So rather than bandwaggoning an innocent for lynching, a penguin might prefer to vote for one of his own, particularly if they don't appear to be at risk of lynching, or to vote for an innocent who *isn't* going to be lynched.

Now, Boro of course voted for me, an innocent who looked in real danger of being lynched. Maybe he realised that I was probably the Seer rather than the Hunter. Maybe he was telling the truth when he said he didn't pay enough attention to rules.
But it's worth bearing in mind.

[Anguirel]

Analysis: (I used not to do these because they're exhausting. I now think they might be less exhausting and a wee bit more to the point than the typical Ang-forged denunciation that is so close to your hearts. Don't worry, I'll follow with one anyway)

#9-gag. Good excuse not to retract if something comes up-as it did. (Sorry Diamond, I am always infuriated when people attack me for my jokes and you ought to be too, but I think it has to be said.)

#12-"I wish" could actually be a blatant Cobbler hint, but I reckon it's just repartee. Despite her later claim to boredom with the subject, she plunges into the rule-flicking here with merry abandon. I don't see her Cobbler comment as that suspicious though actually, if read in contest. Interesting that Boro picked up on it first, incidentally. Probably quite a good idea for a werepenguin to direct a ropey attack that's clearly a shambles at one of his comperes.

#40-the notorious "I'm so bored" post.

AUDREY "DIMWE" HEPBURN: Oohhh, do let's stop quawrelling about this tedious things. They're so petty...

She has a chat with Boro that doesn't contain much, relating slightly to past lives; could be a relatively innocuous looking sign of linkage. But it's the boredom that worries me:

One creature only is so foul and false/He is Ennui!

Ennui is indeed a powerful thing. It appeals to peer-pressure and stuff and easily gets sympathy. It's a bit conspiratorial, a laugh behind the hand, even a flirtation. An accusation of caution and possible boredom by Spawnowen had even got me het up at about the same time. And look how many people felt accused by Diamond's statement or agreed with it: Macalaure, Valier, Boromir, Roa (if I remember rightly)...

By the by-Boromir's apparent judgement of Diamond was one of qualified suspicion. IE, surprise, he hedged his bets and blurred.

#59-quick analysis. Predicts Kitanna's innocence. Doesn't suspect Boro. More anti Lalaith than not.

#65-reinforces suspicion of Lalaith

#89-teases me (valid)...still bored...can only be bothered to analyse in light of solid knowledge. Irrelevant re-cap of previous wereattack, but valid poin tabout duels obscuring culprits.

#93-votes Lalaith for "twisting words". Looks forward to some clear evidence-presumably Lalaith's corpse. She can't retract this one! A bit hasty and vote-happy? Might have a reason for it

#139-prempts (not particularly likely) dream of herself. As innocent, eager to stop pedants like me accusing her. As werebird, cynically certain she wasn't dreamed of and increasing cred. Hmm. Hunter ramble. I must say, Diamond, it's a bit...boring? Heads off to analyse Boromir at the speed of sound

#142-despite quip, shows quite strong faith in Macalaure's innocence. Says her gut feelings are negated due to recent events. Points out she was right about Kitanna -yes, indeed you were, missy.

#152-waits for Phantom's views. Later wonders about PMs. (I find the WWX stuff a bit of a red herring. Every village is a new page, to my mind, with new tactics.)

#160-puts faith in lumping names in lists and consistency from game to game. Isn't this is all a bit of a massive distraction? Qualifies her views though. Does bring up possibility of Lal and phantom as in cahoots, which is frankly pretty loony, but what do you expect...

Right, well, that's about it. What I think of it coming up.

[Anguirel]

Diamond's voting-which is what you pure statisticians out there might regard as the crux-is quite definitely frivolous at best and dangerous and worst. Her first vote is so conspicuous and natural and funny that it seems to be challenging you to dare to criticise it. Her second vote, on the other hand, is rather drab and sly and not particularly coherently supported. It puts Lalaith, as the phantom notes, well ahead of the other candidates again. It's consensus. Anguirels don't much like consensus.

Her interaction with Boro reveals a typical penguin-pack commander relationship as exercised by a loudmouth like Boro. Not very well constructed suspicion on one side. Total acceptance on the other. She seems to predict Kitanna's innocence and may be repeating the trick with Macalaure.

Since Lalaith's revelation she's been apologetic, maybe a bit over-anticipatory, especially with that remark suspecting, or saying she suspects, that she's been proven innocent.

And it's all in such a delightfully care-free manner.

I'm afraid my first vote this evening is going to have to go to you, Bright Young Thing. I know my performance looks like a one-track advance today, but I have also examined Roa a bit and she still seems a figure exuding fewer Machiavellian vibes.

I will again keep my second vote back and aim to return at about nine or half-past (my time, one hour earlier GMT apparently) to check nothing's happened requiring some retracting, as per yesterday. In the mean time, it being the Saturday evening after, ahem, musial performances [exams] I will have some revelry to do.

++DIAMOND

Oh, and, my friends, generally, speak up. Today is so quiet I'm suspecting we've lost more than one Cartesian soul...

[Eonwe]

Here I am, with my head spinning a bit. I'll hope to make the best of it though.


So now onto what I was talking about before and the kind of feel I got off of people's post. These are the ones that to me, as of right now have a more innocent look to them:

Spawn
Jenny
Eonwe
Valier
Macalaure

Of course, it could go either way, but I would be willing to bet that there is a wolf thrown in there. But maybe not. Just something to keep in mind.

I'm gonna have to wait a few days, perhaps, before I can form any real suspicions. I like to let the evedence build up and look for inconsistancies.

[the phantom]

I've got to leave (probably for the day), so here's my last minute stuff. I'm not that concerned with getting all my thoughts out there because I know I'm going to be alive tomorrow, and I should have more time late tomorrow.

Everyone should examine posts #33 and #46 made by Boro and try to guess where he is hiding his fellow Penguins on his lists.

Here is a summary of what Boro says as well as my feelings about Boro's words about his fellow villagers.

He says Valier is innocent in both of them, and I already said that Valier's vote yesterday was a possible Penguinish vote. Feeling- makes me suspect Valier.

He mainly argues with Diamond. Feeling- I'm not sure, but leaning towards not suspecting Di.

Naria was largely absent, and so he says nothing except that he'd like to see more from her. Feeling- I can't get much from this, but I don't suspect Naria.

He pegs Mac as an innocent newbie in both posts. Feeling- Mac could be guilty (I already said his vote might be suspicious), but I'd place others in front of him.

He says that Firefoot could be a dangerous enemy, but a useful villager, and so shouldn't be lynched early. He also liked her advice, but said he wouldn't be surprised if she was a wolf. Feeling- Boro's reaction to Firefoot makes me suspicious, and she was also one of my possible Penguinish votes.

He says Jenn doesn't sit right early on, but then moves her to innocent. Feeling- It makes me slightly suspicious. If you'll notice, Jenn also voted against Roa when it became clear that Roa was not going to give up her attack on Boro.

He mainly argues with Roa, and ends up listing her as a high suspect. Feeling- I could be wrong, but the argument didn't seem contrived. I think they were truly in opposition.

He said Spawn was a bit fishy and perhaps tying herself with an innocent (me), but then moved her to especially innocent status mainly because of her helpful input on Anguirel. Feeling- It doesn't make me suspicious, and it makes me less suspicious of Ang.

He said that Ang hadn't done anything strange early, but then he latched onto Spawn's suspicions but says he'll refrain from taking action against him till he's back. Feeling- As I said earlier, Boro's reaction to the Spawn-Ang thing puts them lower on my list.

He doesn't say much about Eonwe, except that he's probably innocent. Feeling- Could be hiding a penguin amidst the innocent, but there's not enough for me to go on.

He doesn't say much about Enca and leaves her undecided. Feeling- I don't have much to go on.

The proven innocents, Lal, Kit, and I-

He attacks Lal and tries to get her lynched.

He thinks Kit might be the Cobbler.

He thinks I appear innocent, but says that you can never be sure with me.

So anyway, there's a bit of info for you. Put it to use if you want. Keep in mind that I know less than nearly everyone (because the Seer dream was about me, therefore I can't rule out an extra person like the rest of you can).

So, my choices are in order Valier, Jenn, Firefoot, Mac, and Ang.

I'll vote for...

+ + Valier

[Encaitare]

Here are the two people whom I believe are innocent:
1. Roa, as I explained in post #159.
2. Mac, for several reasons. Firstly, his newbie questions and challenging of the phantom suggest that he is an ordo. Secondly, after Jenny voted for him toDay, he said,

Yay! My first vote!

I feel as though any werecreature, especially a first-timer, would have a feeling more along the lines of "oh, crap". Could be a clever bluff, but I don't think so. And thirdly, the phantom is a known innocent and a TiG veteran, and he suggested Mac's innocence (though he also places Mac's vote as mildly suspicious). As an unknown, phantom is dangerous, but as a known innocent I trust him.

Voting thus far:
Macalaure: 1 (JennyHallu)
Diamond18: 1 (Anguirel)
Valier: 1 (the phantom)

[Diamond18]

I think Boro's wolvish behaviour would depend on who his team-mates were. The plan, when we were all wolves together that time, was that phantom would do his usual thing, and I would lie low. This seemed to work, so he never had to attack either of us, although I remember him saying he would certainly have no compunction in rounding on one of us if necessary. He would also I think quite understand if, say, a Roa-style wolf decided to attack him.

Yes, after reading tp's WWX summary (PMs, mainly) it's seems you were quite the well oiled machine. But, seeing as things worked out so well for him in that game, Boro might be inclined to suggest a similar strategy to his wolves. A sort of if it ain't broke don't fix it mentality. On another flip side, knowing that both you and tp were innocents in this game might make him wary of behaving in a manner the two of you would instantly pick up on.

Yet, all possibilities to the contrary aside, I find it intereseting that the people Boro's historical habits shed a bit of suspicion on have also made suspicious votes in their own right, this game.

I think today I may almost certainly vote for one of the following:

Valier
Jenny
Spawn
Eonwe

Seeing as Spawn is gone for RL reasons, I hesitate a bit to condemn her, but then, I haven't done any sort of analysis on hers posts. Eonwe as a non-voter is a mite suspect, seeing as he could have conveinently maintained his low profile instead of making a stand on the endangered Seer/Ranger issue. My gut feeling on Jenny was to not be suspicious, but I've thought "Oh no, she can't possibly be evil again," before, and been wrong, so I'll have to try and be more analytical about her, methinks.

At any rate, should time permit, I'd like to do at least some mini-analysis on those four people. I've got 3 hours, I'll see what I can do with it.

Oh, and note, that list is taken from people Boro thought innocent, but I have left out Mac, because I'm sufficiently confident in his innocence for toDay and don't feel like analyzing him.

As to Ang and his... er, philippic... against me (does this have something to do with horses or tp? :p) he seems rather genuine and that coupled with Boro's stated suspicion of him makes me feel him innocent. However, I do have bad memories of laughing at a certain Scotsman's description of me in a past game and thinking it made him seem less suspicious not more, and he turned out to be a wolf, so maybe I should overcompensate in a paranoid way and suspect Ang anyway. Yeah, try and follow that logic, I dares ya. :p

[Macalaure]

Proved innocent: Lalaith, phantom

Innocent to me: spawn, Roa

More innocent than guilty: Anguirel, Diamond, Enca

undecided about: Eonwe, Naria

more guilty than innocent: Valier

guilty in my book: JennyHallu


++JennyHallu


Now, over to the why:

Jenny has been flying under my radar yesterday. Admittedly, her vote for me made me take a closer look at her.

In her posts 15,30,34 and 39 she wanted us to not go after the cobbler and to stop the Gifted-talk. Much nonsense in there as well.

In 53 she corrects my fault and sympathises with phantom's idea, but not overly so.

66: votes for said phantom, because he thought me innocent without giving a reason. Ignores his proposal to give explanation later.

76: she's with Roa on Boromir. Obviously, not enough to make her retract her vote.

83: turns around, suspects Roa and retracts to her.

126: regrets to already have used her retraction.

155,171: suspects me and casts her vote. Only reason: my position on Boromir's list. No word about why me and none of the other ones on it.

phantom already pointed out Boro's behaviour towards her, so I won't repeat. Boromir seemed very eager to put her lower on his list.

I'm not sure Jenny is a werepenguin. Her behaviour seems a little too clueless. Maybe the cluelessness of a cobbler on a Day 1? Too intangible, too trying to not stand out. Too suspicious.

I hate to vote for somebody who won't be here today, but alas.

[Valier]

I just wanted to say I find it a bit odd that I am on quite a few suspect lists and I am confused as to why. I voted for Ang yesterday because my gut tells me he is a baddie. I would not have changed my vote from him at all, but Lalaith came out and told us Boro was a WP so since I was around of course I would change my vote to help the village. My suspects as of late are....Anguirel, Naria, Mac

I believe at least one of these is a WP and more than likely one is also the cobbler. I will try to see if I can come up with a bit more reasoning before I vote.

[Valier]

Oh and Ang.....
Why Dimwe is Dolorous

Why the use of an anagram may I ask? Are you the cobbler and your trying to mess with people like me who can't solve them?

[Diamond18]

Valier

#11 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473123&postcount=11)

Opens with a joking predictions/stereotypes sort of post. On the surface, nothing to read any meaning into. Oh, but this is Downsian Werewolf were every joke, quip, and throwaway comment must be analyzed within an inch of its life! Haha! So, note that her opinions run to these sorts of categories (becuase you know you love the categories)

Definity bad:

Boromir
Jenny
Naria
Roa

Slightly or vaguely suspicious:

Ang
Spawn
Dimwë
Eonwe
Firefoot
Kitanna
Lalaith
tp

No opinion:

Enca
Mac

Well, that was fun, pointless, and boring all at once. Interesting to me, though, that the strongest conviction she seems to display (even jokingly) is that Boro is definitely a Werepenguin. Either her instincts are frightening even when she is only joking, or she knew this and was being frightfully bold.

#42 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473284&postcount=42)

Here she agrees with me about Werewolf 101 to be boring. This isn't surprising, as Valier is outspokenly more of an instinct and feeling kind of a player than a strategm and theorizing sort of player, and all the WW101 fell under the strategm and theorizing. So this is not suspicious coming from Val. She promises a post with another overview of baddies/goodies, but a serious one this time.

#50 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473296&postcount=50)

Questions tp about the arrow icon. I found this strange last game and find it strange again, but then, I have been on the board almost as long as tp has and have known him to use that icon as a calling card in any situation.

#68 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473340&postcount=68)

Comes through with the promised "thoughts on players" post. Potential wp's are Ang, Naria, phantom. Finds Naria and Mac "iffy." Says "Jenny, Spawn, Boromir, Diamond, Firefoot are in my feels innocent list." Others she doesn't know about. So, obviously, of the known innocents she suspects tp (for his use of icon, apparently) and doesn't mention the other two. The known wp is on her likely innocents, which doesn't necessarily mean anything, to which I can attest. :rolleyes:

#86 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473372&postcount=86)

Here she dislikes Roa's comment when Roa says it's dangerous to assume her innocence. Not really sure what's so off about Roa's comment here, myself. It's really actually sort of a "No, duh" comment because it is dangerous to assume other people's innocence. I think it's necessary to a point but it is dangerous.

#99 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473389&postcount=99)

Votes Ang, questioning his push to lynch Kitanna. I myself didn't like Ang's suggestion to lynch Kitanna because I thought her innocent, but perhaps this was Ang sensing Lal's Seerishness, so in a way it makes sense.


The firepower in this struggle is unequal, against Lalaith , and I fear it profits none but the penguins. Are there any moderates out there willing to take a punt on Kitanna?

Things started to get rather jumbled and cross posted at that point in the Day so it's kind of hard to tell what people were thinking. But I find it interesting that she made her Ang vote even after Lal made that rather telling "Oh Diamond, not again" comment. I can tell you, even though I read that post after the deadline when I got home, it gave me a chill, sort of like the precurser to the "oh d'oh" when she came right out and said she was the Seer. So the fact that Val said, "Well I see no reason not to go with my gut on this one" and went ahead and voted Ang in that strange period between "Oh Diamond, not again" and the reveal, when a vote to save Lal would have been better, makes me question how well that gut is working.

#108 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473401&postcount=108)

It takes her 6 minutes to change her vote after Lal reveals. I'd say that's pretty quickly, which tends to speak for innocence in my mind. I mean, she could have laid low and said that she left for the day after voting Ang. But then, being so sneaky may simply have not have occured to her and she rushed to do the good looking thing.

#134 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473575&postcount=134)

Advocates that Lal reveal her dream.

#183 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473747&postcount=183)

Questions why she on people's suspects lists and restates her likely trio of wp's from yesterDay. Still suspects Ang.

#184 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473748&postcount=184)

Questions Ang on a supposed anagram. Frankly, I don't think this even is an anagram. What's it supposed to say? *scratches head*

So, my opinions.... She seems a bit suspicious in some posts then less so in others, which makes her feel a bit slippery to me. I can well understand tp's vote for her. I will take a look at some other suspects before making a decision about what to do about her.

[Anguirel]

Audrey Hepburn has it right. If there's an anagram in the title Valier brought up, I definitely didn't intend it. I can't do anagrams either. Too lazy.

It's just a heading, Valier...Dimwe is Diamond's name and dolorous means grievous, IE, guilty. I was struggling for alliteration (was thinking of dystopic. Actually should have put Descartes, that would have been quite appropriate) but it goes no further than that...as far as I can see...

[Lalaith]

Hehe. Like a fool, I've been shoving that line into various online anagram generators. You should have seen what they came up with...

[Encaitare]

I agree with Mac about Jenny... I've been a bit suspicious of her since her early vote for Mac, largely because I believe all the signs point to his innocence. I'm going to review Jenny's posts and see if her earlier posts confirm today's vote.

EDIT: cross-posted with a lot of people... Valier and everyone since.

[Valier]

Ok Ang I get it now. I still find the way you are pushing for people to get lynched is a little cobbleresque. I know you at least a little, to know that you are more than capable at rallying people to your cause. You seem to be acting mostly like yourself, but more pushy... I think it odd. As for Naria, she is a crafty player. Quiet, but she normally makes it fairly far in the game, which could be dangerous if she is a hidden baddie. Now Mac is the lowest on my list right now and I'm not quite sure what to think about him yet. I'll be back shortly. Oh and Diamond nice analysis of me (no really) But what's up with the arrow? Hee hee

[Diamond18]

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

#25 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473222&postcount=25)

Supports tp's plan and states that even if we lynch some innocents it doesn't matter so long as we eventually get all the werepenguins. Also advocates not worrying about the Cobbler. Voices intent to take a look at Firefoot, Roa, and Ang.

#27 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473229&postcount=27)

Counters Mac's disagreements with the whole "everyone act seerish" plan.

#35 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473258&postcount=35)

Replies to Mac again, states she could make a case against everyone, then goes on to make a case against Ang.

#58 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473310&postcount=58)

Says lists would be bad, talks a bit more to/about Ang.

#69 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473341&postcount=69)

Says shes a lot suspicious of Kitanna and a little suspicious of Jenny, then votes Kitanna. Odd, why the sudden switch away from her earlier quarry?

Okay, so now after reading over that Spawn is looking rather odd to me. None of her posts really say that much, though, granted they're Day 1 posts. She seems to go after Ang then back off without much reason either way. There's an appearence of the usual Spawn incisiveness but I feel as if it's a veneer. Spawn might indeed be avian or cobblerian. I'm still hesitant to vote for her, though, because Nilp said she'd be gone and she really can't defend herself or make any more substantial Day 2 contributions to judge.

[Roa_Aoife]

Hi, everyone. I apologize for being back so late- an appointment of mine ran over.

Before I go back and do the analysis, there are some things I want to remark on:


I also must give credit to Roa's very useful postings today, - but also giving credit to her WW brilliance, she is one of the few players here who could carry off the double-act of being so helpful and still being a WP.

Thank you, this is quite flattering. ;)
Though I've discovered the fatal flaw in being a good werewolf- even when you're innocent, people think you're just being devilishly brilliant. :p

The ruling only denies the use of any PM's that you have sent or received from the mods just before or during the game.

Good to know. Carry on, then. (Because you needed me to say it.)

Roa (who voted for Boro just after 10pm, saying she had to leave, but then stuck around)

I did leave- I left work, and I didn't know if I'd make it back through traffic before the dealine. I did, and logged back on just after Lal's reveal.

Oh, and, my friends, generally, speak up. Today is so quiet I'm suspecting we've lost more than one Cartesian soul...

Blame Nogrod and Thin- the two loudest players beside Diamond and myself are watching instead of playing. *shakes fist towards sky*

Other things- I'm starting to suspect Ang's true profession is a shoe maker.

I'm not concerned about Eonwe- if he doesn't vote today he gets taken out by Mod-fire of DOOOOOM, so I suggest not wasting a vote on him.

Since I don't have much time left, I'm going to do just one analysis. If I end up having time left over, I'll try for the other. So, I'm going to look at Jenny, and if there's time, it'll be Ang.

EDIT: cross posted with last 3

[Encaitare]

Jenny still doesn't sit right with me. She voted for the phantom, whom we now know to be innocent, then retracted in favor of Roa, whom I also believe is innocent. And finally she voted for Mac on Day 2, and I feel Mac is innocent. You could call it differences of opinion, but I don't like it. Also, there is this:

Way to go, guys. I'd have helped, but I already used my retractable.

Why does she reiterate this? It seems like the kind of thing that doesn't have to be said, and something that often gives werecreatures away is repeating certain points in the attempt to make themselves look innocent.

No offense to your test, TP, but Boro certainly didn't expect to get killed yesterday, and it just seemed that he emphasized and re-emphasized Mac's newbieness and innocence.

TP and I have also said that Mac is innocent, and neither of us are WPs.

Roa has said that she is going to do an analysis of Jenny. It is very likely that Jenny will be receiving my vote, but I'm going to wait for this analysis in case Roa picks up something I've missed.

[Macalaure]

Would anybody bother to explain to me what that shoemaker is about? :rolleyes:

[Diamond18]

Eonwe

I thought about skipping Eonwe and going right to Jenny, but he only has three posts so it's not like it'll take a lot of time. So:

#8 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473112&postcount=8)

Mostly banter but is another advocate for not being concerned about the Cobbler.

#16 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473162&postcount=16)

Very odd and unsettling reply to Boromir, in my opinion. Really. Read it and tell me this isn't strange.

#178 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473730&postcount=178)

Repeats what has pretty much already been said about Boro's likely innocent list. Then states he'll have to wait a few DAYS for evidence to pile up before he can form any real suspicions. Days? Days?? There's already evidence out the wazi-hoo-hoo, my friend, we have 4 known players already, and even if 2 of them are dead, that give plenty of evidence to look at.

Conclusion:

Eonwe is evil and must die. Okay, to put it in a slightly less hyperbolic manner, he hasn't posted much or voted at all, hasn't given RL reasons why he hasn't posted much or voted at all, and managed to say some pretty bizarre things when he has posted. A little throwaway commenting here and there is all fine if you're at least trying to also participate, but this is just downright Gilesque in its wilful non-participation. I don't like it.

Alright, on to Jenny, though I'm running out of time.

Oh wait, I just saw this:


I'm not concerned about Eonwe- if he doesn't vote today he gets taken out by Mod-fire of DOOOOOM, so I suggest not wasting a vote on him.

That's right. Okay, can we get a 100% sure confirmation from Lomgrod whether or not Eonwe is going to bite the dust toDay? He pretty much said he ain't gonna vote.

[Valier]

The cobbler=Another name for shoemaker

[Diamond18]

Would anybody bother to explain to me what that shoemaker is about? :rolleyes:

Cobbler.

The reasoning behind this is that a cobbler, or shoemaker, has such a horried job that it drives them to insanity and werecreature wannabe-ness. Really, I prefer the term Goose, but then, you all knew that. ;)

[Macalaure]

Thank you, Valier (I still suspect you, nevertheless :p )
Not a day passes at the downs without me learning something.

One thing about Eonwe:

On Boromir's first list he's the most suspected by him.

On the second he's among the innocents. Eonwe didn't post in between the two and Boro doesn't give reasons for this move.

Edit: Thank you Di, too.

[Valier]

Thank you, Valier (I still suspect you, nevertheless :p )


As I you ;)

[Nogrod]

Okay, can we get a 100% sure confirmation from Lomgrod whether or not Eonwe is going to bite the dust toDay? He pretty much said he ain't gonna vote.

Miscellaneous rules (#2)
- Players who don’t post or fail to vote in two days in a row will be removed from the game.

[Valier]

I do agree with both Diamond and Mac on their points about Eonwe. He is an odd fellow in every game I've seen him play in, so his behavior is not that off, but I say if he doesn't want to vote or contribute for days that he be Mod-God killed.

[Anguirel]

One other thing about Eonwe-the poor chap's male. Careful, Macalaure, we two who have known feminisation would not wish to inflict it on another, eh?

As some of you may remember, I far prefer being accused of being an evil fiend (which implies a measure of sadistic cunning) to being a Cobbler (which implies blundering imbecility.) I am deeply hurt and shall weep by myself in the dunce's corner.

Or I would if it wasn't for Maria Callas. What a woman! Never thought she would be such brilliant Werewolf music! Perhaps the excitement her voice is causing in me is destroying my ability to reason, hence the Cobbler accusations...

[Valier]

Ang would you rather I just call you a Penguin? Would that make you feel better?

[Anguirel]

Yep. Thanks Valier, I know I can always rely on you to cheer me up.

[Valier]

That's all we need around here is a cheerful Penguin :rolleyes: :p

[Valier]

I know I'm flooding, but where is everyone? There is only 4o minutes left!

[Roa_Aoife]

Jenny Summary

Day 1

1st post - points out that the cobbler is useless with out penguins, asks everyone to move away from cobbler discussion, some in character nonsense, supposed nonsense accusation of phantom.

2nd - Second nonsense accusation of phantom, makes a point about her innocense, asks people to move away from gifted talk

3rd - response to Boromir's mild suspicion of her, says she's trying to move the village away from the cobbler talk to penguin catching, thanks Boromir from moving his focus from the cobbler to penguins, says she missed Diamond quote, thinks Diamond should know better, remark about work

4th - nonsense response to Kitanna's nonsense accusation

5th - Corrects Mac's math, says that we shouldn't assume randomness in equations, says we are capable of analyzing who might be innocent, and who isn't

6th - Says she may or may not be back before deadline, claims retractions, vote phantom for "innocense tests" and poor reasoning

7th - Thinks she'll leave her vote where it is, doesn't like Roa's analysis of Boromir, thinks it makes Roa suspicious

8th - Decides Roa's attack on Boromir makes her either penguin or cobbler, changes vote to Roa

9th - Question's Roa's statement about Ang's assumption of innocense

10th - Pops in after Lal is safe "Way to go, guys. I'd have helped, but I already used my retractable."

11th - Says she'll be quiet today, is slightly tipsy, thinks Boromir's reaction to Mac makes Mac suspicious

12th - Says she won't be around, votes Mac, sites Boromir's reaction as reason for vote

Analysis

Several things stand out to me on this (and feel free to say that I'm being nitpicky or seeing something that isn't there, but I don't promise to believe you. :P)

First, twice in a row she gives silly reasons for suspecting phantom, now known innocent. This would be ignorable as nonsense, except that she voted for him later, simply for using a test to look for innocents. The fact that she singled him out early on, and later voted for him , seems like she's slowly trying to find a reason to "get" him.

Second, Boromir started off by being mildly suspicious of her, then changed his mind later on and moved her to his "innocent" list. This could be some touch and go wolf interaction, trying to make each other looks good.

Third, in her fifth posts she says that we are capable of discerning innocents for ourselves with out being random, but in her sixth posts she votes for the phantom because he was trying to discern innocents.

Fourth, she turned on me as soon as I started an attack on Boromir, going so far as to declare me a penguin trying to make up a case for an innocent and question my statements about other players.

Fifth, her "popping in" just after Lal is safe to say, "Oh, I wish I could have helped, but, you know how it is..." seems fairly pointless. I was around, talking making suggestions, when my help was very limited- I had already voted for Boromir, so retracting to him would help, and I couldn't vote Kitanna after her reveal, so I couldn't help by retracting to her. Others, such as Kitanna, also stuck around, even though there was little or nothing they could do. To me, it seems she's trying to preempt suspicion for not helping.

Sixth, she "popped in" again, and voted for Mac, someone who is very unlikely to be lynched today. Seems like a safe vote.

Seventh, there are her attempts to turn the conversation away from the cobbler, which I've seen in another cobbler named SPM, who wanted the whole village to believe the cobbler was dead.

And finally, her statement about being innocent- the last time I saw her make this statement she was a newly turned wolf.

So, the conclusion this leads me to is that she is either fowl or faker. (Read: penguin or cobbler.)

[the phantom]

My afternoon engagement was shorter than I expected, so here I am again. I skimmed the thread again, paying especial attention to Boro.

As you know, feelings about people generally change every time you reread, so here's my new suspect list.

1) Valier- See here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473732&postcount=179) for my suspicions.

2) Eonwe- In rereading, I just didn't like the way Boro talked about him, and then ignored him while grouping him with his innocents.

I think it is likely that either Val or Eonwe is a Penguin. Unfortunately, I have a suspicion that if we find one of the two guilty, the other is definitely innocent.

I also agree that it might be a waste to vote for Eonwe at this point seeing as he will possibly get slain by the Mods.

3) Jenn- See here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473732&postcount=179) for my suspicions.

I won't list any more suspicions right now. I don't want things to be too muddled.

[Eonwe]

but I say if he doesn't want to vote or contribute for days that he be Mod-God killed.

Oi! Yes, its true I'm not a top poster, but that's no cuase for a mod-god lynching! And I do want to contribute, but am just bideing my time.

Mac, yes I'd thougt of B88's lists, and hoped nobody would notice that. It does put me in a bit of a pinch, but I can't really defend myself, as I don't know what was happening in Boromirs mind.

[Firefoot]

Hum. I'm not really feeling any less tired now than earlier, and since I'm not particularly concerned about dying before the next Day, I'm going to wait till then to post my thoughts. Sorry, all. For now you'll just have to take my word for it that I'm not voting randomly...

++Valier

[Roa_Aoife]

Eonwe, you do realize that if you don't vote today, you'll be removed from the game, don't you?

[Anguirel]

Wei-irrd. This is not Firefoot as I know her. She's possessed by some wack Bacchic demon. Or something. Exams, perchance? Pneumonia? Unrequited love?

[Diamond18]

JennyHallu

#15 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473150&postcount=15)

Seems mostly banter and in character. Makes a comment about the Cobbler being useless without werecreatures.

#30 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473238&postcount=30)

Strange, this opening line seems more like an opening post opening line, but it's her second post. She again directs a bit of banter tp's way. Then makes the comment about getting past gifted talk which was later described and debated over as being a conversation squelcher.

#34 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473254&postcount=34)

Denies the squelching accusation, elaborates a bit on her stance. Refers to a Diamond quote and me knowing better... I assume it was about me talking about the Seer letting us know about the Cobbler.

#39 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473280&postcount=39)

Just a bit of banter, in response to someone's quote (not credited) which seems to be accusing her of the avian-flu.

#53 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473300&postcount=53)

Points out a flaw in Mac's math and says it makes him seem suspicious.

#66 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473336&postcount=66)

Votes for tp, based on his comment about Mac being innocent for undisclosed reasons.

#76 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473358&postcount=76)

Now finds Roa suspicious due to her Boro analysis.

#83 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473368&postcount=83)

Follows through with a vote and enteres into the analysis/summary debate of Roa and Boro.

#87 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473373&postcount=87)

Continues to poke holes in Roa's quotes.

#126 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473421&postcount=126)

Quite conveinently states that she'd have helped save Lal but for her usage-uppage of her retractable quota. This does seem a bit suspicious, especially since the way she used her retractions was a bit careless. (I should talk, I know.)

#155 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473625&postcount=155)

Says she won't be around because she's... drunk. (Tsk!) Returns to her early suspicions of Mac citing Boro's trust of him as all the more reason to suspect him.

#171 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473698&postcount=171)

Votes along these lines.

Conclusion:

I feel that Jenny is either a very preoccupied ordo or the Cobbler.

[Eonwe]

Eonwe, you do realize that if you don't vote today, you'll be removed from the game, don't you?

But of course. That happenins in 28 minutes, too! :eek: :p

[Naria]

Hi all. Sorry for my absence. I've been packing all day getting ready to move(RL).

As you all know Day ones are horrible and for me at least, Day twos aren't much better :rolleyes: . I have to say though that in light of all the analyses done on Jenny she does look rather evil at this point. I have played in a couple of games with her now and she usually has a lot more to say. I found myself un nerved by her "pop" up vote for Mac with little reasoning(also another thing that she doesn't do) She usally has really good reasoning behind her thoughts and votes. She also has played in the manner that she is now(whilst being a wolf). She is crafty and can pull off a good bluff. That in itself is why I will be voting for

++JennyHallu

[Eonwe]

And so I shall vote, for there are but twenty-five minutes left, now.

++Valier

[the phantom]

Since you're the Seer, Lalaith, and are certain to die tonight, just let me know if you want me to change my vote to someone else. I think that you should be allowed to give an order of two if you wish simply because of your position and the fact that this is your last chance.

Of course, you might not want to have a say in this. It's possible such a decision might be dumped on me tomorrow as the lone proven innocent, and I can already tell you that I'm not looking forward to it. So I can understand if you'd rather not order us around. It's up to you. I'm just letting you know that I'm willing to vote with you if you request it.

[Macalaure]

Now we have three analyses of Jenny...

Wouldn't it be better if those who follow just refer to the first one and point out where they differ and what they can contribute to it?

[Anguirel]

Just out of interest: does anybody sympathise with my lone Audrey Hepburn position on Diamond at all? Am I just a soapbox-dwelling madman?

If the answers to the two questions posed above are respectively no and yes, then...I'll be even more convinced I'm right...

[Roa_Aoife]

And so, I shall vote as well:

++Jenny

I'll do the analysis of Ang tonight, and post it first thing in the morning. I'm also going to do Naria. Just because she's a werewolf Ninja. ;)

Current vote count

Valier: 3
Jenny: 3
Mac: 1
Diamond: 1

Valier is currently in the lead as she reached three votes first. Unless I left someone out.

EDIT: bunch of cross posts

[Diamond18]

I've cross-posted with just about everyone on this page. I see that Roa and I are thinking along somewhat the same lines with Jenny. I think she's being a bit too odd to be avian, but then, that could be bluffing. My money, for what it's worth, is on her having a penchent for cute shoes.

Eonwe, really, if you vote toDay just to stay alive, without any intention of truly participating, I will more than likely try my best to get you lynched tomorrow. Sorry to sound nasty about it, but you're just not helping the village with this behavior.

Right now, of the people I analyzed, I feel that Spawn's posts were the most Penguinesque. I would really like to vote for her, and frankly am only stopped by the fact that she's gone toDay. I'm not sure what the vote count is at so I supposed I ought to have a look at that.

Since I have time enough at last (yay for getting four analysis done in 3 hours!) and bit of OT:

Or I would if it wasn't for Maria Callas. What a woman! Never thought she would be such brilliant Werewolf music! Perhaps the excitement her voice is causing in me is destroying my ability to reason, hence the Cobbler accusations...

My Werewolfing serende of choice is often the music of Muse. It's so wonderfully dramatic and frantic and filled with hysteria that it does wonders for fueling the feelings of paranoia.

[Lalaith]

Thanks Phantom.
Actually, I am not sure how to vote, as I have no definite suspects. I think many of you innocents feel the same, which is why it has been quiet today. It is always thus, I find, after being given a bit of concrete evidence, everything else seems so nebulous.
Here are my thoughts on those unknowns that remain. Of course, I have told you all I know for sure so they are only the thoughts of a clueless innocent. But at least you all know that they are honest opinions.
Anguirel - Roa_Aoife - amber/red. Do not lynch either of these people yet, as they are too useful as innocents. But they do worry me, so please watch them. Roa especially. She was a toss-up with phantom in “who to dream about”. I can easily envisage a scenario whereby a WP-Roa would spot my attack on a WP-Boro, and then go for him herself in order to create “a row” (always off-putting to onlookers, especially on Day One).
Diamond18 – Valier, Macalaure -- flickering green straight to red. One minute I think they’re guilty as anything, the next that they’re innocent as lambs. Which makes me think that one of them is the Cobbler.
Encaitare – red. I don’t know why, she hasn’t posted much, but I’m getting bad, callous vibes off this one. I’d vote for her today if there was any point.
Eonwe - amber. Contributes next to nothing – would a WP be so non-committed? One thing I don’t like, he seems very sure that he’s going to survive, as he is going to get a better handle “in the next few days.”
Naria – amber/red. Would a WP make so many careless mistakes? Well, yes, perhaps a WP Naria would, trying to combat the Ninja-Naria image.
No light, because I don’t have a handle on at all: dancing spawn of ungoliant - JennyHallu. Firefoot. Of the three, I find Firefoot the most suspicious and Spawn the least.

Oh, and I asked about whether to reveal or not, for a reason. It was obvious that I should reveal. I wanted to see who agreed. Ironically, it was only phantom who gave a free and frank reply along these lines.

As for my Logical Hunter point, posted earlier: this principle, going by yesterday’s voting, makes Di and Mac look quite good (both voted for innocents at a time when they looked like they were going to be lynched), also Ang, as he switched his vote to an innocent, trying to get them lynched….but Valier does not great, throwing her vote away at a crucial time on someone very unlikely to get lynched.

[Diamond18]

Just out of interest: does anybody sympathise with my lone Audrey Hepburn position on Diamond at all? Am I just a soapbox-dwelling madman?

I sympathise with you Ang, and don't think you are a soap-box dwelling madman.

(Or maybe I just said that out of a sadistic Skittlesque desire to drive you even more crazy.)

Thank you for the vote count, Roa. I think I may vote Valier, since both she and Jenny are looking bad, but I feel Jenny is more Cobbler material, and Valier has been more sneaky.

[Valier]

So this looks pretty bad for me right now:( You are all being misled! I am an Ordo and you'll be wasting a day of Penguin catching!! Please rethink this! I would hate to die on the second night with barely a good reason why!

[Roa_Aoife]

Just out of interest: does anybody sympathise with my lone Audrey Hepburn position on Diamond at all? Am I just a soapbox-dwelling madman?

Oddly, Diamond guilty had crossed my mind a few times. The only problem is that I've never actually seen her guilty. Has she ever been guilty? If it'll make you feel better, I'll run up an analysis on her, too.

[Valier]

Well in the interest of saving myself for one more day...

++JennyHallu

[Anguirel]

I sympathise with you Ang, and don't think you are a soap-box dwelling madman.

Oh, come off it. The answer to that second question is obvious...after all, I support the Conservative Party...

[Diamond18]

Well, on the likely chance that my computer will thwart me within the next 10 minutes, I'll go ahead and vote now.

+ + VALIER

[Encaitare]

All that has been said about Jenny has only supported my suspicions.

++ JENNYHALLU

[Diamond18]

Oh, come off it. The answer to that second question is obvious...after all, I support the Conservative Party...

Oh fine then, put me down as a Yes/Yes. :p

[Lalaith]

I support the Conservative Party
*Don't* remind me. I may decide to change your light to red, just to annoy you. Ha ha.

Anyway, I'm not completely happy about this but I think that of the two leaders, Valier is the more suspicious so I will go with her.
++VALIER

Do we get to find out the Cobbler when s/he dies, btw?

[Roa_Aoife]

The only people left to vote are Spawn and Lal, and Spawn isn't going to be here today. So

Jenny: 6
Valier: 6
Mac: 1
Diamond: 1

Unless there are retractions, then Jenny is hanged.

Edit Corss posted with Lal and adjusted accordinly.

[Nogrod]

Do we get to find out the Cobbler when s/he dies, btw?Yes you will. All roles are revealed after the death... as it stands in the rules. :)

[Lalaith]

Goodbye, elves, and good luck, may the Valar watch over you.

[Roa_Aoife]

Good bye, Lal. Well done, and thanks for your help.

[Anguirel]

Oh be a sport, Lalaith, I just yearn for the days when politics was a jolly good show and Asquith and Balfour had dinner together...I'm a very benevolent sort of voter.

Which is why I don't intend to seal any fates now...I'm really not convinced of the innocence or guilt of either Jenny or Valier. I would vote for Jenny before Valier, if you want my opinion, but in this case I'm sticking to my crumbling Crimean guns.

[Nogrod]

Jenny's death coming soon...

Elves stop voting.

The Day2 has ended.

[Nogrod]

Lalaith opened the discussion of the Day noting that she had dreamt of an innocent last night. Then she went on to quote tales of old, trying to explain the others her suspicios behavior the last Day.

“Lal, if you think the person is likely to end up lynched, reveal them. Otherwise, it might be pointless.”, said Roa, Elenwë’s personal Guard.

Elenw’ës personal Chamber Maid, Valier echoed the Guard: “I agree I think you should tell us Lalaith who the Ordo is unless they are gifted. That will clear up at least something.”

“Tell us, Lalaith.”, insisted Ecthelion's hotheaded nephew and personal squire the phantom.

Turgon’s nephew, Macalaure, was a bit more hesitant: “Lalaith, whether you reveal the innocent or not, I don't think we will rally around him/her. Could be the cobbler, after all.”

Lalaith came forwards: “You, my dear phantom, I dreamt of you last night, and as I seem to have your permission, I reveal this now.” So the phantom was the known innocent amongst them.

Maybe it was because of Kitanna’s body – tied to a chair by now and looking at them with empty eyes – but they all seemed to feel gloomy and nervous in her presence. But no one had any better ideas to come up with her either. So the discussion for the most of the Day went on quietly, reservedly and at best analytically, and at worst elves defending their actions the last Day. The general feeling was very different comparing to the first Day. Many were drawn to the old stories, remembering what different elves had done in similar kind of situations before and whose elders had been doing what.

Macalaure tried to sum up the general feeling by saying: “I think I like nights, if only there wasn't this, well, bloodshed at the end of it.” That note was received with total silence.

Anguirel, annoyed by this overall silence, tried to change the mood: “"Oh, and, my friends, generally, speak up. Today is so quiet I'm suspecting we've lost more than one Cartesian soul..." But it was clearly deemed to not be a funny Day.

There were some suspicion raised over certain elves and then those very same elves being defended by others. At last Jenny informed that she would retreat and vote for Macalaure. Soon after, Anguirel presented a case against Dimwe and voted for her.

Turgon’s herald, Eonwe dropped in, “I'm gonna have to wait a few days, perhaps, before I can form any real suspicions. I like to let the evidence build up and look for inconsistancies.”

After his announcement the phantom made a case against Valier and voted for her. Encaitare the standard bearer defended both Roa and Macalaure, of which Macalaure went on voting for Jenny with his reasonings. The feeling was getting more tense by the minute.

The civilised demeanour of the elves was maintained only with an effort: “Would anybody bother to explain to me what that shoemaker is about?”, asked Macalaure. “The cobbler is just another name for shoemaker,”, answered Valier immediately. “Thank you, Valier. I still suspect you, nevertheless.” Macalaure returned the comment. “As I you.”, Valier snapped back. The general feeling was bent on mutual suspicion.

Jenny saw the votes piling up on her at the late hour and thought to herself: Surely I will be more at my home with these charming penquins anyhow. I’m going to get away, to the sea with these elegant creatures! Silently she slipped through the Assembly Hall to the great doors and took out from the building. There was just the sea around the small island. How far could I swim?, she thought and measured her chances. Not far, but I could try! Maybe these gallant creatures will carry me away to their haven, to peace and tranquility with them!

My gift of being unseen by the others has betrayed me!, she thought as she jumped in to the icy cold waters and started to swim away from the island. She had just heard the other elves gotten worried about her absence. “Where is she?” called Macalaure. “We should lynch her!”, yelled Naria. The others were already pouring out from the building. “There she is! She’s trying to swim away!” yelled Roa, “Kill her!”, she shouted. All the elves ran to the shore. Valier and Encaitare were the first to reach the shore. They took their bows and shot them, hitting Jenny to her back. The red stain of blood was barely visible in the oncoming darkness of the night. Roa, Naria and Macalaure sent one more patch of arrows to make Jenny’s death a definitive fact. Jenny’s body floated on the waves. There were a couple of penguins around, starting to carry her body away from them, out of their reach. She hadn’t changed into anything, but clearly was taken care by the penguins far away.

“So, the conclusion this leads me to is that she is either fowl or faker”, said Roa, watching the body being carried away by the Penguins.

”I feel Jenny is more Cobbler material”, Diamond rephrased her last words on the subject.

The cobbler she sure was.

~ The Dead ~
Nogrod - a troubadour, singer – mod, blowed up in the Big Bang on Night1
Thinlómien - a troubadour, harpist – mod, blowed up in the Big Bang on Night1
Boromir88 - The Mouth of Turgon – werepenguin, cast into a gorge on Day1
Kitanna - servant who empties and cleans chamber pots – ranger, body and soul separated by Cartesian Dualism on Night 2
JennyHallu - An Embroiderer, lost, not related – cobbler, shot dead in to the sea on Day2

~ The Living ~
Anguirel - Lalwende's semi-canonical lutenist and Findis's demi-canonical flautist
dancing spawn of ungoliant - animals' dung cleaning specialist
Diamond18 - Dimwë the half-wit second cousin of Elenwë
Encaitare - A standard-bearer
Eonwe - Turgon's herald
Firefoot- Aredhel's friend
Lalaith - Aredhel's tutoress
Macalaure - Turgon's nephew and part-time-repentant kinslayer
Naria - Family's goat herder
the phantom - Ecthelion's hotheaded nephew and personal squire
Roa_Aoife - Elenwë's personal guard
Valier - Elenwe's personal chamber maid

Night 3 begins now.

Werepenguins start PMing.
Seer and the penguins send your picks to Nogrod.
Hunter feel free to change your mind when you wish to (send your possible new pick to Nogrod at any time).

[Nogrod]

“So Lady Elenwë has taken this tutoress of Aredhel to be her mouthpiece, yes?” asked the Master, but didn’t wait for an answer. “I know exactly what to do with her now. But if the Lady herself is involved, I'll have her hindered, just to see that she doesn’t interfere too much with the Plan. You should mind the other Elves, as that is your part of the deal. And this Lalaith in particular, she must be dealt with tonight” said the Master, leaving no room for dispute.
“Sure, Master. What should we do?” asked the Emperor. The Chinstrap had braved to meet the Master the first time and was frightenedly nodding in agreement to everything that was said.
"When speculation paints its gray on gray, then has a form of life grown old, and those clinging to it are mislead. And that’s good! The gray on gray cannot be rejuvenated, but only known; the Owl of Minerva first takes flight with twilight closing in. We shall not let these Elves to gain any other knowledge than that given to them afterwards”, the Master made a rhetorical pause here, but then continued, “Lady Elenwë plays a dangerous game letting her petty folk know things beforehand. That must not happen again! Let her little darling feel the claws of real Wisdom, the ones of the Owl of Minerva herself! You know the statue of the Owl at the Assembly Hall? Call it with its true name and it will do your bidding."
“Surely Master, surely”, the Emperor answered and bowed down. The Chinstrap thought it wise to mimic the Emperor’s gesture, and almost tumbled to its beak.
“Sorry...”, it muttered but was sharply beaked by the Emperor.
“We’ll go now, Master. We well see to the Owl”, the Emperor said.

----------------------

“Lalaith...”
She woke up, hearing again the familiar voice calling her.
“My lady Elenwë?” she asked softly and got up from her bed.
“Come to me now...”
Lalaith wrapped her cloak tightly around herself and stepped to the corridor. She could hear the Lady’s words though they were hardly louder than a whisper.
“Come, I’m here in the Hall... I found you your information...”
Quickly but silently Lalaith started to walk down the stairs.
She was halfway through the stairs when she saw the Lady Elenwë in the other end of the hall.
“I must run, Lalaith, but I can tell you that my guard, Roa_Aoife, is...”
Her voice was muffled by the screaming and the wingbeats of the parrot, who had suddenly appeared from nowhere. Elenwë couldn’t do anything but try to defend herself from the flapping wings and the sharp beak and claws. The parrot forced her to retreat to a side corridor. Lalaith tried to run to her, but only then she saw a small penguin at the end of the stairs, looking up to her cheerily. Lalaith stopped, horrified. “They say your name is Laughter...”, it chuckled. Lalaith’s heart was bumping ever faster in her chest.
“...let’s see if you can laugh at this”, continued another, colder voice from above her. Instinctively, she turned around to see the speaker. It was a penguin, too, a bigger and a more majestic one. It was standing at the top of the stairs, blocking her way back to her room. She was trapped.

Then she heard the loud and slow pounding of a huge pair of wings from above. The Owl of Minerva was gigantic. She had never seen a flying creature like that before. It fell upon her with a force that was far beoynd the strength of her slender being. It tore her eyes from their sockets with just one light grip of its talons. Lalaith screamed and fell down a couple of stairs. The pain was too much for her to be conscious of anything else. Before she could rise up the heavy wings were on her again. The Owl ripped the right half of her face off with its talons and simultaneously tore a terrible cut to her left side. Lalaith went down the remaining stairs and rolled to the floor just to receive the third and the final attack. The huge bird landed over her, leaving her beween its massive legs. It bowed slowly down to her, and then in a flash hit her breast with its beak, scavenging her heart out from her chest.
“True wisdom comes afterwards, not before”, noted the Emperor coming down the stairs.
“Splendid, indeed”, echoed the Chinstrap, grinning maliciously.
The Owl of Minerva hopped away from Lalaith’s motionless body and turned to a statue once again, watching over the Assembly Hall from near the main entrance with eyes of marble.
“That should be enough”, said the Emperor.
“Yay, cool guy, that owl”, affirmed the Chinstrap as they climbed up the stairs to reach their bedrooms before dawn.

--------------------------

“What a mess! And I have to clean all that, I suppose”, said spawn, the animals’ dung cleaning specialist, noting the organs spread on the stairs.
“Hey, there’s a body downstairs!” Naria said, agitated.
“It must be Lalaith...”, Firefoot said, her voice trembling.
“Or what’s left of her”, put in Dimwë the half-wit.

A few of the Elves dared to descend the stairs to the mauled corpse that had once been Lalaith. “This is as we feared. Her eyes have been pecked out. We have lost our Seer”, the phantom said, turning away from the appalling sight.

They heard a voice from high up above: “Breakfast-time. Breakfast, anybody?”

~ The Dead ~
Nogrod - a troubadour, singer – mod, blowed up in the Big Bang on Night1
Thinlómien - a troubadour, harpist – mod, blowed up in the Big Bang on Night1
Boromir88 - The Mouth of Turgon – werepenguin, cast into a gorge on Day1
Kitanna - servant who empties and cleans chamber pots – ranger, body and soul separated by Cartesian Dualism on Night2
JennyHallu - An Embroiderer, lost, not related – cobbler, shot dead in to the sea on Day2
Lalaith - Aredhel's tutoress – seer, blinded, mutilated and torn apart by the Owl of Minerva on Night3

~ The Living ~
Anguirel - Lalwende's semi-canonical lutenist and Findis's demi-canonical flautist
dancing spawn of ungoliant - animals' dung cleaning specialist
Diamond18 - Dimwë the half-wit second cousin of Elenwë
Encaitare - A standard-bearer
Eonwe - Turgon's herald
Firefoot- Aredhel's friend
Macalaure - Turgon's nephew and part-time-repentant kinslayer
Naria - Family's goat herder
the phantom - Ecthelion's hotheaded nephew and personal squire
Roa_Aoife - Elenwë's personal guard
Valier - Elenwe's personal chamber maid

Day3 has now begun.

Penguins stop PMing.
Everybody start discussing.

[Macalaure]

Time is not on my side, so today I can do little more than cast my vote and leave it to your trustful hands to analyse that recent bandwaggonry.

The unlucky one would be:

++ Eonwe

Eonwe and Valier both are on top of my suspects list. I pick Eonwe because, in the case I am wrong, the loss of an innocent Valier would be worse in my opinion than the loss of an innocent Eonwe.

By the way: 4 people died an none of them an ordo. What are the chances for that? ;)

[the phantom]

They killed Lalaith? I'm shocked!

[Diamond18]

If I am thinking correctly, we are to expect analysis on Ang, myself, and Naria coming from Roa early toDay, no?

toDay I would like to hear more from Spawn, Firefoot, and Eonwe. Spawn topped my possible penguin suspicions yesterDay. I am also still very suspicious of Valier. And I would like to take a look at Enca and Firefoot, probably will do analysis on them. I would have analyzed overnight, but you know, ennui and all. :rolleyes:

It is, I suppose, good to have the Cobbler out of the way, but I'm not as happy about it as I thought I might be. Jenny was rather an overt Cobbler, and I think she served her purpose exactly as she wanted to yesterDay, garnering the most attention and the most lynch votes in lieu of a werepenguin.

[Diamond18]

They killed Lalaith? I'm shocked!

:rolleyes:

Okay, Mr. Known Innocent, what are you real thoughts on toDay? *puts pressure on tp's phantasmic shoulders*

[Roa_Aoife]

Lal chose to dream of me last night.... what a shock... :rolleyes:

Here's the Ang analysis- I'm almost done with Diamond. After these two, Naria ought to be a walk in the park.

Ang Summary

Day 1

1st post - some in-character nonsense, likes to pick fights with phantom but can't because he's being sensible, still doesn't trust phantom, short overview of players:

Eonwe's contribution is slight but to be fair he's low on material at that point.

Diamond, were she not Dimwe Diamond and entitled to a little...skittling, would be still more worrying than she already is.

Valier's behaviour is normal and not that suspicious.

Boromir's first post seems to deliver little helpful thought, but he sometimes takes a while to get into his stride. The last time I accused him on a Day One he turned out to be a Ranger. And his second post is much better.

Firefoot's proposed course of action is the one I shall probably adopt, headless chickenery and all. With Boromir and the phantom she's one I'd fear most as a penguin, but that's no real basis for lynching. Yet.

2nd - disagrees with Mac about phantom's plan, thinks it's a good idea unless he's a penguin, would rather have no hints at this stage, says gifteds will make themselves known at the right time, wonders if phantom wants to lynch ordinary elves to save gifted, says that he doesn't

3rd - response to phantom, says a lynched ranger leaves a better trail than a lynched ordinary (AN: How ironic...), a lynched ordinary volunteer leaves almost no trail, states again that he thinks we shouldn't follow this idea, leaves

4th - Answering accusations, some nonsense, says he had only a little time in which to make input, and that gave him only a little to go on, hence the lack of depth in his posts, points out that Spawn has yet to do Roa and Firefoot analysis, says he analysed the people who caught his interest, again points out tha Spawn hasn't made a case against Roa or Firefoot, says he doesn't want to criticize her about it, doesn't necessarily see a case against everyone he chooses to accuse, doesn't trust phantom but doesn't see a case against him, says his posts are line of thought, points out that we can't really do a plan in masse anyways, says he was concerned about phantom's reused seer plan, says he has to vote early

5th - response to Kitanna, points out that he's as noisy evil as he is innocent, says his point about Spawn with the Roa-Firefoot analysis was a joke

6th - Shares Boromir's concern's about Lal, says she's casts a wide net, but is fishing in a wide sea, decides not to vote for her, or phantom, but doesn't like phantom's plans, will vote for either Eonwe or Kitanna

7th - says case against Kitanna is founded on her being a "backer, not a starter," thinks she just made a few mistakes, Votes Eonwe for quietness

8th - Doesn't think that Boromir, Lal, or Roa deserve a lynching, thinks Roa's case against Boromir is flimsy, doesn't want Boromir or Lal to be a victim, decides to vote for Kitanna to save Lal, also considers voting Diamond for being bored

9th - Advises Roa to look elsewhere

10th - agrees that Boromir's defensiveness is odd, wishes he had voted Diamond instead

11th - Asks if anyone else is willing to vote Kitanna to save Lal

12th - Afraid that Lal will be lynched

13th - Says goodnight, hopes Lal can be saved


Day 1 analysis

The biggest thing that stood out to me when reviewing Ang on Day 1 is that he made a point to say that he did not advocate lynching innocents to keep from accidentally lynching gifted twice. Then, towards the end of the day, he suggests lynching Kitanna in order to save Lal, going so far as to get the ball rolling himself, and making repeated requests that others join him. There is a huge discrepency between what he said and what he did.

Some other, slightly less incriminating things I saw- he continually tried to discourage the attack on Boromir, but, unlike Jenny, assumed that all involved were innocent. When I am a wolf and someone assumes I'm innocent, I laugh with glee; when I'm innocent and someone assumes I'm innocent with no real reason, I get very worried. I'm the only who knows I'm innocent except the wolves- everyone else is clueless about it. Day 1 especially is a bad time to assume innocense with out cause.

Also, his opinion on Eonwe changed drastically without Eonwe actually saying anything in between. First, Ang says Eonwe's contribution is slight, but to be fair, he had little to work with. Then, he suddenly moves him to a likely vote for being too quiet. This is what Boromir did with me, so a repeat of this behavior does not bode well.


Day 2 Summary

1st post - some nonsense, explains vote for Eonwe:

In a hurry, wanted to vote for Kitanna but didn't have time to make a case, knew Enca would show up later to contribute unlike Eonwe, forgot Naria was playing

Didn't take Boromir's defensiveness seriously, thinks suspicions of Diamond may be better placed

2nd - Admits to being around for a little longer after saying goodnight

3rd - Finds Jenny's vote impetuous, but not incriminating, says his ccase against Diamond is coming

4th - Case against Diamond, see http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473718&postcount=176 because I'm too lazy to summarize that whole thing, but he does make a big deal aboutDiamond's boredom statement

5th - More about Diamond, says her voting makes her look bad, point about her interaction with Boromir, says Diamond said that she suspected that she'd been proven innocent, says he examined Roa and she still looks innocent, votes Diamond, asks people to speak up

6th - Answers Valier, explains "Dolorous"

7th - Reminds everyone that Eonwe is male, says he'd rather be accused of being a penguin than a cobbler, some nonsense about music

8th - "Yep. Thanks Valier, I know I can always rely on you to cheer me up."

9th - Remarks that Firefoot is acting oddly

10th - Wonders if anyone else thinks Diamond is suspicious

11th - Banter

12th - Isn't convinced of Valier's or Jenny's guilt, though would vote Jenny before Valier



Day 2 analysis

There's less to look through, but this is what I found:

He hurredly adresses his vote for Eonwe as not having enough time, though he had enough time to stick around, adress the attack on Boromir, and then vote Kitanna to save Lal. Never does he give a reason for his sudden switch on his thoughts about Eonwe, Nor does he supply better reason for why he wanted to attack Kitanna.

Also, he stated it on Day 1, and again on Day 2, but for some reason he likes to accuse people before having a case against them. That seems a bit backwards to me, and terribly sneaky. If you want to find someone guilty when you review them, you will. Essentially he plants seeds of doubt about a player, then helps them grow by getting evidence about the guilt.

Then, he made a direct mis-statement about Diamond. She never said that she suspected Lal had dreamed of her- she said that if Lal had dreamed of her, it would be perfectly alright by her to be revealed.

Finally, towards the end, there was a lot of posting filled with a lot of nothing. People who talk a lot without saying anything make me suspicious.

In his favor though, some of the points against him by Spawn and Kitanna weren't very good ones, and he did admit to being around at the end, though this could be a double bluff to make himself look innocent.

[Firefoot]

First off, I would like to apologize for my lack of posting yesterday. I really was just dead tired. But I've done lots of thinking (before and since), and have some things to say.

First off, I think that the two remaining penguins are Encai and Valier, although I'm more sure about Encai.

This fits with my theory (and others', as well, I've noted) that Boromir would only have one wolf in each of his lists. I looked at his "most suspicious" list, and left were Ang and Roa, but I was extremely hesitant to mark either of them as penguins because their arguments with Boro seemed too genuine to be fabricated. So I put them on the back burner for a while and looked at the other two lists. From the middle list, after I took out phantom and myself, that left Encai, Naria, and Diamond. Diamond just didn't seem guilty to me, and besides has since voted for Valier to tie the vote between her and Jenny (this only really works as reasoning if Valier is a wolf, I suppose). There wasn't a lot to either of Naria or Encai, but of interest was that in Encai's post 159, she completely hi-lighted Ang and Roa as being on Boro's probably guilty list - taking attention away from the other two lists and in effect her. Also, she voted for Jenny when the vote was tied at 4-4, assuring that it would be Jenny to be lynched because even if Lalaith voted for Valier (as she did), Jenny would still be lynched because we knew Spawn would not be voting. (Again, this only works if Valier is a wolf...)

As for Valier, she started out in her first couple posts saying that Boro was one of the "definitely guilty ones", but he soon faded out of sight. She then started attacking Ang pretty fiercely (who I'm thinking is innocent), and Naria keeps reappearing in her posts as well. Then you have her possibly evasive vote for Ang when the voting seemed fairly set to go for Lalaith while Boromir's down a couple votes.

Barring these two, I think I would look at Naria, Eonwe, and Spawn, but these three are more on my "in-between" list. These are the people I don't really know anything about... I'll probably look at them sometime toDay. Mac, Ang, Diamond, and phantom (duh) are on my likely innocent list.

YesterDay's voting:

Macalaure – 1 (Jenny 1)
Diamond – 1 (Anguirel 2)
Valier – 5 (phantom 3, Firefoot 5, Eonwe 7, Diamond 10, Lalaith 12)
Jenny – 5 (Macalaure 4, Naria 6, Roa 8, Valier 9, Encai 11)

Did not vote: Spawn

[Roa_Aoife]

I would like to note that, in my own personal perspective, I hesitate to find Ang guilty. Here's why- Boromir, our known wolf, put him in the most suspected list with Lal, Kitanna, and myself. We know that Lal and Kitanna are innocent, and I know I'm innocent. Given Boromir's past behavior concerning his fellow wolves, it would seem unlikely that he would put him on the suspected list if he were actually a wolf.

However, I do know that several players like to "change it up" a bit when repeating a role, and Boromir may have changed his play. That's why I'm not ruling Ang out.

[Valier]

*Sigh* well it looks like I will be spending most of the day defending myself. I find it quite amusing to read peoples analysis of me and the weak evidence there is against me. My voting has not been off. I voted for Ang because I think he is a WP, why else do you vote for someone. Boromir at first thought me innocent, which I found slightly odd, but I figured he was perhaps the Seer and had dreamt of me, that is why I did not vote for him at first, but of course after Lalaith revealed he was a WP, I switched my vote to him. I am innocent and I would love to stick around and help the village, but it's hard when everyone comes up with bogus stuff on you. Please I really think our Werepeguins lie in either Anguirel, Naria, Eonwe, Firefoot. I will try and give more info today on why I suspect these people. Mostly Ang and Naria

[Diamond18]

Er, Val, our reasons for suspecting you are a lot less bogus than, say, your reason for finding tp suspicious before Lal revealed him to be innocent. Also, how is your vaguely stated suspicion of Ang (and vote for him) something that we should not question, but you can pooh-pooh our suspicions and votes for you?

[Firefoot]

So, Valier, all of a sudden I'm suspicious because I suspect you? Seriously, to this point the only place you've even mentioned me is once as being innocent... As for Ang and Naria, the only reason I've really found for your suspecting them is because they *could be* crafty players as wolves. Ang seems to be a complete gut instinct. And I don't remember you mentioning Eonwe before at all.

[Roa_Aoife]

While I don't trust Valier any more than the rest of you (excluding phantom), I would like to point out that Valier never has distinct reasons for finding someone suspicious, and always goes by gut instinct. Always. And she's frighteningly accurate with her gut instincts. So, if you're looking for something to condemn her with, that ain't gonna cut it. Now, her changing her mind suddenly about someone is something worth mentioning, since I've never known her to give up a pursuit once she's after someone.

[Diamond18]

Encaitare

#60 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473320&postcount=60)

Says that timezone will cause her to be quiet, states that she feels tp is innocent, agrees that the WW101 has been a bit boring, and doesn't think she's missed much.

#64 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473332&postcount=64)

Says she's suspicious of Lal for early anlysis and Spawn for singling out Ang, and defends quiet people. Votes for Lal, with the qualification that she's "probably wrong."

#159 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473640&postcount=159)

This is the first really suspicious post, in my view. She thinks that Boro would put one of his fellow penguins in his top suspects, and goes on to focus on Roa and Ang. You can chalk it up to difference of opinion, but I feel that it's more likely Boro would have put his comrades in his innocent to mildly suspicious categories. If that's true, Enca here could easily be attempting to direct the Elves away from looking at the lists where her and her feathery friend reside, and hoping to divert suspicion onto Roa and Ang. In her analysis of Roa and Ang she says that she thinks Roa is innocent and Ang is inconclusive, but this does not necessarily mean she wants the rest of us to agree. As long as we are focusing on these two, we are devoting our energies to them and not to others. By herself not finding them overly suspicious, she avoids looking as if she's attacking them.

#180 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473737&postcount=180)

Says that she thinks Roa and Mac are innocent. For Mac she cites his questioning and challenging, his joy at being voted for, and the fact that phantom whom she trusts find him innocent.

#188 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473754&postcount=188)

Agrees with Mac about Jenny and states intent to analyze her posts. If we are to find something avian in this, it could be that she has chosen an innocent to cling to (previous post) and is now bandwaggoning on his suspicions.

#192 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473758&postcount=192)

Analysis of Jenny. She also says -- "TP and I have also said that Mac is innocent, and neither of us are WPs."

I find it slightly disturbing that she constantly reiterates that Phantom is innocent, and here lumps herself in with him as if she is also a known. She says she'll probably be voting for Jenny but will wait for Roa's analysis. With Mac, Phantom, and Roa I see a trend of her clinging to those who are known innocent or she claims are innocent. I also worry that she may have figured out that Jenny was a suicidal Cobbler and gratefully started going after her.

#228 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=473798&postcount=228)

Votes for Jenny, pointing to "all that has been said" supporting her suspicions.

What I don't like about this is that Jenny was the Cobbler and Enca never allowed for this, even though she claimed to be paying a great deal of attention to what other people were saying about Jenny, and both Roa and I voiced suspicions about Jenny being the Cobbler.

Conclusion:

Well, some of the things Enca's said and done are very suspicious. I can come up with reasons why they're avian. The only problem I have is that I've never played with Enca nor read a game in which she played, so I don't know how Innocent Enca behaves any more than I know how a guilty Enca might behave. I feel a bit like repeating my detective work on Boro and looking for games to read in which Enca was a wolf, or really, any game in which she played.