Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Macalaure]

Then suddenly fire burst from the Meneltarma, and there came a mighty wind and a tumult of the earth, and the sky reeled, and the hills slid, and Númenor went down into the sea, with all its children and its wives and its maidens and its ladies proud; and all its gardens and its halls and its towers, its tombs and its riches, and its jewels and its webs and its things painted and carven, and its laughter and its mirth and its music, its wisdom and lore, its rubber ducks and cuckoo clocks. ~ The Akallabêth.

We are in the year 3319 S.A. All of Númenor has been devoured by the Sea…

All of Númenor? No! The top of the Meneltarma still peaks out of the waves, and its inhabitants will not cease to resist the dreadful power of that phantom Eru Ilúvatar.

Few they were who made the way up the hallowed mountain… um, hill, now… and saved their precious lives from the jealous paws of eternal death. There were rumours that even their queen, Ar-Zimraphel, was able to escape, but none knew whether she hid amongst them, and little did they trust her anyway.

One of the men stood up: Macalaure, most proud and strong, loved by women, adored by children and envied by men, most lordly and radiant, mostly brave and… ahem… well, anyway, the captain of the reserve he was.
“Fear not, loyal men and women of the King of Númenor, the rightful King of Men and of all lands east and west of here. The phantom that is being held before our eyes to keep us blind struck us with mighty fate, but he that is his master shall yet prevail, and he will deliver us from this phantom!”

Encouraged by such mighty and glorious and unsurpassed words, the survivors took heart. The land that was so large, but used to seem so narrow, now was narrow indeed, but, after all, it was still there. Considering what lay behind them, little worse could now happen anymore.

Or could it?


Note: Do not post on this thread before the game has started. For questions or anything else, go to the admin thread (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=13672&page=1).

I will post the detailed rules soon.

[Macalaure]

Rules


The general stuff:

In a night phase of the game, the Were-Faithfuls may pm one another. They choose one player to kill, who is removed from the game at the end of the night phase.
In a day phase of the game, all villagers, including the Faithfuls, may talk to each other on the game thread. No pming except to me. The village must decide on which one of themselves to lynch at the end of the day. The lynched person is then removed from the game.
When a player is killed or lynched, their role will be revealed. He may no longer post or pm about the game until it is finished.
Every night phase and every day phase lasts 24 hours.
The innocents win if all Were-Faithfuls are dead, the Were-Faithfuls win if their number equals the number of non-Were-Faithfuls.


Lynchings:

Every player has one vote. It should look like this, be on a separate line and bolded:

++Macalaure

Every player may retract their vote once per day if they want to. This should look like this:

--Macalaure

If more than one player has the highest number of votes, the one who reached this number first will be lynched. There are no multiple lynchings.


Roles:

4 Were-Faithfuls decide per pm whom to kill each night and try to conceal their identities at day. They too must vote.
1 High Priest of Annatar (seer) will dream of one other villager each night and wake up knowing that villagers role.
1 Ranger may protect one of his fellow villagers from being killed by the Faithfuls at night. He may not protect the same villager twice in a row. A villager who has been protected successfully will know he has been saved, but not by whom or from whom.
1 Hunter pms me an ordered list which length is equal to the number of living Faithfuls. If the hunter is lynched/killed, then the Faithful who is highest on this list will die with him. If there is no Faithful on it, then, if the hunter is lynched, the innocent at the top of his list dies, if the hunter is killed, he dies alone.
Ranger and Hunter know each other’s identity. They may not pm with one another at day or night. They may not protect/hunt each other.
1 Tar-Míriel (cobbler) belongs to the innocents, but is in reality hoping for the Faithfuls to win. She does not know the Faithfuls’ identity and the Faithfuls don’t know hers. At the end of each day, Tar-Míriel will pm me a list of the villagers who she thinks are the Faithfuls. I will give this list to the real Faithfuls to brood over. Of course, the player who plays this role may be male, too.
13 Ordinary Villagers may talk and vote on days, like everyone else. They are quiet at night.


Various:

The deadline for days and nights is 9 PM GMT (real time counts, not faulty forum time)
All players shall be in invisible mode
A person who doesn’t vote for two consecutive days is removed from the game (the Mod may grant amnesty)
The game thread is only for the game and all the game takes place only in it. Other discussions (e.g. announcements or apologies for RL hindrances, questions of whatever type) belong into the admin thread.
You may edit your posts to correct faulty grammar/spelling, change bolding/italicising and mark cross-posting. You may not alter the content.


And don’t forget:
It’s only a game, so don’t be offensive;
It’s only a game, so don’t be offended.
:)

[Macalaure]

Dark were the days beneath the black, towering clouds which covered the skies, disrupted only by cruel lightnings that smote the very earth. These were the hours when the remaining Faithfuls, who hid themselves from their hunters, gathered in the docks of Rómenna to leave Númenor for good. But in these moments, when faced with the decision to leave their beloved lands, a few wavered. One of them spoke up.

“My Lord Elendil, my heart does not endure to be parted from the land that is my home, regardless of what it has become, or what will be its end. Faithful I will be until Eru takes me to him, but I will not go away from this place that saw the birth of my forefathers and me.”

“I understand the longings of your heart,” answered Elendil “for mine longs for the same, but it accepted that the land I love as much as you do will never in any age again be like it was. I will give you leave readily, but know that little good will befall to you, should you stay.”

“I know too well what might be my fate here, and nothing I can think of soothes my fears, now even less, since even you my Lord do not know what is left to do in this wonderful place that has become so full of dreads.”

“One advice I might be able to give you: If you wish to remain in the land of our fathers, then seek out the Faithful that do not wish to part from Númenor, and let them join you in secret, if they are willing to go with you, and share in your design”

“And what shall that design be?”

“To remain unnoticed in the midst of the worshippers of Sauron, pretending to be one of their own kind; but during the night, to seek their homes and give the Gift of Eru to those who are so exerted to reject it. You shall be…

… Were-Faithfuls!”


Night one has begun. Faithfuls, start your plotting. Priest of Annatar, dream a little dream for me. Everybody else, see you tomorrow.

[Macalaure]

A list of the survivors of the near-drowning of Anadûne:

Brinniel
Durelin
Garin
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
the guy who be short
Holbytlass
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Kitanna
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe
The Might
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Roa_Aoife
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Saucepan Man
Thinlómien

[Macalaure]

Disturbed by the horrible event of seeing his land drown in the floods of the Sea, Macalaure found it difficult to find sleep in the night. His thoughts were wide awake and his heart would not find rest. Suddenly there were noises heard outside his makeshift hut. “The others seem to be just as restless as I am.” he thought. Then slowly the door opened and four shades were seen in the dim light. They closed the door and stood in a half circle around his bed.

“Who are you?” Macalaure asked.

“We have come to bring news, first to you and then to all others through you.”

“I do not know what you mean!”

“Well, what you do know is, I suppose, that all hearts in Númenor are not drawn to Sauron. There are yet four of us here to serve the One, and so we will do until the utter end.”

A disdainful laugh escaped the mouth of Macalaure. “There are yet some of you we have not wiped out? Very well. Before the end comes you shall see that only the service to Melkor confers true power. Melkor gives life, your Eru only death.”

“Well, that we shall see." said one, and the Faithfuls drew closer around Macalaure.


*~*


The next morning the surviving Númenoreans gathered upon the Hill of Meneltarma to debate their future. But they noticed that Macalaure was not among them, so they went to his hut to see for him.

There was nothing that could have prepared them for what they were about to see. They opened the door and there lay the dead body of proud Macalaure, sickly defaced. Quickly they rushed towards him.

“I do not think he died an easy death” said Lalaith, kneeling over him “There are seven deep cuts over his body, but they have been given the time to start to heal.”

“And seven of his bones are broken!” said Nogrod, appalled and disgusted.

“Let us have more light inside here.” said Durelin, and lighted a torch.

And in this moment they saw the writing on the wall on the other side of the room. Written in Tengwar letters and in the language of the High-Elves – and in the blood of the victim – it said:

“Seven scars and broken bones
and one dead Mac!”

There the hearts of the people of Westernesse were stricken with horror and many cries of pain were heard.

Alone Rune, Son of Bjarne, kept his courage:

“The Faithfuls have plotted against us. They strike first. The next blow shall be ours!”


*~*


The Dead:

Macalaure (mod) - brutally killed by Faithfuls in Night One


The Living:

Brinniel
Durelin
Garin
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
the guy who be short
Holbytlass
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Kitanna
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe
The Might
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Roa_Aoife
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Saucepan Man
Thinlómien


Day 1 begins. You finally may start posting now. Wolves, stop pming. I need the lists of the hunter and the cobbler before the end of the Day.

[Mithalwen]

Since I am here, I may as well post but obviously there isn't a lot to say :rolleyes: However with such a big village I am sure there will be screeds to read when I get back.

This should be and interesting game - several new players, a few returners and a slightly unusual line up of roles. Given we don't want to force gifteds to out themselves to save their necks or to out those we think may be gifted in order to defend them, we should remember that that gifteds as well as wolves are liable to give out an "odd" vibe and that while in most villages only the wolves know about each other here the hunter and ranger know about each other. But if anyone has a watertight method for distinguishing gifted odd vibe from wolvish odd vibe please share!

We also have a cobbler.... I will try to resist the assumption that it is the Saucepanman (at least til he has posted).

[Lalaith]

Well I'm here too, and my goodness it's quiet. Of course, it's always hard to post early as there's so little to say, and one ends up prattling about nothing. But as I'm not going to be around again until (RL) tomorrow evening, I may as well stick my head above the parapet now.

distinguishing gifted odd vibe from wolvish odd vibe please share

Hmmm....I agree about being careful because of gifteds giving off odd vibes. But I'm not sure about that above comment Mith, if I suspect anyone of being gifted I'm not going to share that suspicion openly with fellow villagers who may be nasssty werefaithfuls.

But I'm also intrigued about these new twists on roles, the lists are a variation I'm not familiar with.
And I'm steeling myself for the pages I'm undoubtedly going to have to wade through when I get back....a demain, Numenoreans.

[Mänwe]

Well here I am three, being rather new to the entire experience, my life on this here Island had always been a quiet one. So if I am generally quiet well that is my reason. As a fisherman I prefer the waters not the land, would that I were on a ship or corral. Certainly any place else than here with that defaced corpse, i've seen my fare share of bloated bodies of drowned sailors, but this is all rather evil.

I wouldn't be surprised that people would give out odd vibes. I myself feel slightly odd. Though I assure you my vibes are all of pity, remorse and anxiety over what has occured. Still those who give out odd vibes may be doing so by way of double bluff...but your right, early posts do seem to ramble.

Though i'd add as a sailor quick decisions saves lives, and while i don't cast aspersions often nor am I accusing now who be the culprit, but I am eager to find out who twas that perpetrated this foul deed, and i've never much liked the look of Hookbill....

[Kath]

Ooh it feels odd not to have an occupation. What are you supposed to ramble about in your first post!? :0 The rules I suppose, or the narration.

Four wolves plus a Cobbler eh? And no more Gifted's than usual to balance it. Though I suppose we do have a very high number of ordinary villagers and the Hunter and Ranger know each other and so we will be spared the hell that is two Gifted's going after each other without realising it!

What ratio do we have then. 13 ordos to 8 with roles and only one death per Day and one per Night (so long as the Hunter doesn't take anyone down with them). Someone better at maths than me may disagree but I'd say that gives us pretty good odds no?

Anyway, that's it from me. I'm a bit lost for what to say right now. I'll be around for a while yet though.

[Nogrod]

Okay. With just one kill per Night, if I understood the rules correctly, the wolves are quite outnumbered. So let's make a brave face, Macalaure's gruesome death nothwithstanding. Those of us who will live up to the fourth or fifth Day should have good chances of winning this one.

I must say I share Mith's concern about reasoning a gifted from a were-Faithful and thence can't see the reason why Lalaith wishes to try to make an issue out of it. Well, that was the second post anyhow and as such forgivable...

But those Valar-loving Nerds are up to us! Shame on the concept! Maybe we just lynch the kindest ones and be done with it? So bad Foley is not playing as she's so loving person you could tell she's a friend of the ones in the Undying lands... :)

But what that leaves me - with persons I know even a little - is Holby, Mith and Lommy, neither of whom I would wish to help lynched at this stage (well, who could one wish to lynch at this stage anyhow?).

So we'll see about this.

Hard to jump on anyone yet...

[Glirdan]

Oooo!! No job, no posting going on!! Just how my ancestors described it in their lorebooks of old!! Well, except for the no job part....

So, four Wolves and one Cobbler, eh? Quite interesting.....quite interesting indeed. Well, with too few posts and it being the first day, I'm going to go for a little stroll to think about this whole mess. I hope there will be more posts when I return as I may have to vote way before the Day is through. I bid you adieux.

[Nogrod]

Before I go to sleep as I have to, just a few first impressions... (I'll try to be more forthcoming later on the Day)

Mith seems to be her normal innocent self and making somewhat good points. With this evidence I would not vote her.

Lalaith I've reconsidered now and just think she is only hasty and short of anything to discuss this early. But there are so many newcomers in this game that some open speculation might indeed be good for us (no offence to the newbies - I myself am still working to understand how this game works...) and the combination of roles surely is a new one. (To look at the Hunter-list stuff, please check the last game and Macalaure's comments on them in the discussion thread)

Of Manwë I have no clue about. Looks good, but we also saw Lalwendë making it out quite far with this "looking good" -thing. But basically it sounds innocent...

Kath, oh my God... She sounds herself whether she's a villain or not. Everything looks nice and okay, as it should... No way to tell anything about her now and possibly in any near future unless she's dead. But if she's a villager, we would lose a lot in the endgame without her experience and wits.

Glirdy looks somewhat normal but there is a feeling I get from his post... I don't know what. I know I myself disagree with voting the most "usual suspects" as it tends to turn bad for us, but still I can't help feeling that from those already posted I would say he's the most suspicious one. But that's a little to say and calls for reconsideration after some more posting from you all...

So no bright ideas this far. Hopefully later...

[Roa_Aoife]

What, no mad cap theory for victory, Nogrod? How can I argue with you if you don't give me something to argue against? :p

we should remember that that gifteds as well as wolves are liable to give out an "odd" vibe

This is true, and it's how gifteds stay alive- because of their suspiciousness the wolves leave them as a smokescreen. So what are you suggesting? Refrain from voting for someone we think is acting suspiciously just because we fear lynching a gifted? The gifted can take care of themselves. In fact, it's their responsibility to do so. If they behave in a manner that gets them lynched, then they are bad gifteds. On the other hand, if they are so unsuspicious that they get killed, that is their fault also. Any comments about gifteds should be left to the wolves at Night. Your comment to me looks like an attempt at a smokescreen, to raise fear and paranoia.

I'm going back to summarizing everyone.

[Garin]

I too am unnerved by the lack of traditional jobs within the village. It seems as though are citizenry are a pack of aimless derelicts. However the lack of role playing might make it more difficult for the were-faithfuls to disguise themselves.

I don't like any talk of gifteds this early in our villages plight. It is not our duty to sniff them out. It is their duty to remain hidden and to serve the village. I have some experience in detecting the lupine within our ranks but I am thrown by these "faithfuls" and their lack of the usual evil musk.

Nogrod, it is fine that you are familiar with some of our villagers but don't let that cloud your judgment. They could be among the the treacherous. This is definitely a time in which no one can be trusted.

[Nogrod]

Nogrod, it is fine that you are familiar with some of our villagers but don't let that cloud your judgment. They could be among the the treacherous. This is definitely a time in which no one can be trusted.Don't think I'm leaning to trust anyone here... Some things just help to orientate one in the beginning of the game when the loose threads are scarce. I truly hope I have something real to chew after I come back tomorrow (RL).

What, no mad cap theory for victory, Nogrod? How can I argue with you if you don't give me something to argue against?Sorry to let you down but I need to wake up early. If I'm alive tomorrow or there is something interesting later toDay rest assured I will have an idea or two... ;)

[Roa_Aoife]

*sigh* We don't need jobs to catch wolves. We don't even need voting records. We need people to talk. That means you, Glirdan. Mith had nothing to respond to and yet she made more impact than you did. There's always something to comment on. So get to commenting people.

Seriously, it's Day 1, everyone's alive, where are they?

I have to go for now, but I expect to be reading through at least 3 pages when I get back at 5 AM GMT. *waggles finger*

[The Saucepan Man]

So, a bunch of self-righteous Were-Faithfuls dare blight our haven, do they? Still, with Lord Annatar’s blessing, I am hopeful that we will soon have them nicely sacrificed upon His Unholy altar.

We also have a cobbler.... I will try to resist the assumption that it is the Saucepanman (at least til he has posted).Can’t be me. The cobbler is, after all, a Queen, and so female. :p ;)

On a more serious note …

But if anyone has a watertight method for distinguishing gifted odd vibe from wolvish odd vibe please share!What? So as to help those foul Faithfuls spot Gifted behaviour? Unlike Nogrod, I share Lalaith's reservations over that comment. I also think it will be unhelpful to discuss likely Faithful behaviour, at this early stage at least, as it tells the Faithfuls precisely how not to behave to avoid being spotted.

The best way forward, as I see it, is to observe the words of those who speak and draw conclusions over the patterns of behaviour that we see before our eyes, rather than speculating about how the Faithful might behave in the future. And that requires us all to talk. So, as always, I bid all here not to hold your tongues. Bring forward your thoughts, your suspicions and your accusations, so that we may debate these at our counsel. Do not be afraid to speak, for it is only by speaking that we will catch these abhorrent souls. I will not look kindly upon those who skulk in the corners of this thread (without good reason).

Well here I am three, being rather new to the entire experience, my life on this here Island had always been a quiet one.So, laying low fishing, when you should have been out sacrificing Faithfuls to the Lord Annatar, eh? By your words, it seems that you would rather be fleeing to the mainland with the blashphemer Elendil and his crew, than here among your brethren. Are you one of his crew, mayhaps?

Then again, I rather agree with you about that Hookbill fellow. :D

[The Saucepan Man]

However the lack of role playing might make it more difficult for the were-faithfuls to disguise themselves.The role-playing never lasts too long anyway, and always leads to a debate over who most suspiciously carried it on as long as possible to avoid saying anything too serious. :D I agree that its absence provides a welcome lack of distraction. Though it has led to a few posts decidely lacking in content, but nevertheless seeking to register a presence *cough* Glirdan and Kath *cough*.

So what are you suggesting? Refrain from voting for someone we think is acting suspiciously just because we fear lynching a gifted?To be fair, it is always worthwhile to bear in mind that Gifteds can sometimes appear suspicious, by their nature. As a serial misguided voter-for-Gifteds, I can attest to that. My concern was more with the invitation to discuss openly likely Gifted and Faithful behaviour.

[Nogrod]

What bothers me is that I tend to agree with Roa here (as we should be the cat and the dog - which one of us is what is an open question)...

Glirdy seems to be too detached for a villager. Just casually making himself present but in an alienated way. It sounds bad to be sure.

Hope you have more to say later on Glirdy! I know it's early, but there are things to be observed other than "substance" also early in the game, like attitudes behind the words... the problem is that an unenchanted villager might go for it as you do.

Bring forward your thoughts, your suspicions and your accusations, so that we may debate these at our counsel. Do not be afraid to speak, for it is only by speaking that we will catch these abhorrent souls. I will not look kindly upon those who skulk in the corners of this thread (without good reason).I do agree with this! See the bolding to underline it... It's almost downright insulting that I'm the number one poster at this point with just a few posts. :)

Speak up people, otherwise we can't nail the baddies... and if it becomes to that, I will be the first to vote for those who do not talk without an acceptable explanation.

[Mänwe]

As I said I am not one to hold my tongue, certainly when matters such as this arise. Listening and speaking are, I echo everyone’s thoughts, essential to our victory. Among those words spoken are a few I would highlight.

Originally posted by Nogrod

I truly hope I have something real to chew after I come back tomorrow (RL).

‘Chew’ being the operative word, be that human flesh you so wish to sample? Tired of the hard maggoty bread served aboard ship? I should know I’ve tasted it many a time, yet my appetite turns more to fish than human. It is why I do “looks good”, :D fish is the food of the brain. You are alluding to the absence of others, as does Roa, perhaps your furry ally.

Originally posted by Roa

Seriously, it's Day 1, everyone's alive, where are they?

You also seem impatient to meet everyone; I cannot help but think it’s not just for a bit of idle chatter. Seeking the tastiest amongst us? I assure you, your lupine nose would turn at the smell of my quarters. Being stained with the smell of fish, which I would add is not in order to hide my evil musk!

For why would I wish to lay low? Saucepan Man, why should I?

Originally posted by Saucepam Man

So, laying low fishing, when you should have been out sacrificing Faithfuls to the Lord Annatar, eh? By your words, it seems that you would rather be fleeing to the mainland with the blashphemer Elendil and his crew, than here among your brethren. Are you one of his crew, mayhaps?

I am the villagers’ fisherman; I supply a staple diet, why should I wish to kill my customers? I do not deny that sailing with Elendil would be an experience, but the boat I wish for is a simple fishing corral not the mighty ships of said Mariner.

Originally posted by Saucepan Man

Then again, I rather agree with you about that Hookbill fellow.

I am glad you see sense and agree with me. Has he been in your mind of late?

[The Saucepan Man]

You are alluding to the absence of others, as does Roa, perhaps your furry ally.I do wonder whether our fisherman, despite his suspiciously peaceable ways, might have a point here. While it doesn't necessarily mark them out as Lembas-eating, Valar-loving surrender monkeys, it does seem to me that Roa and Nogrod are being unduly harsh on those who have not had an opportunity to speak so far.

It is but little over three hours since Mac's body was discovered, and yet Roa and Nogrod are behaving as though it is a crime not to have posted yet. I agree that we want everyone to speak, but I hardly think it incriminating that there are a fair few who have not been able to do so thus far.

In any event, both mathematically and logically speaking, it is likely that at least one, and quite probably, two of our four Faithfuls have spoken already so far. I doubt that berating those who are not yet with us is likely to lead us very far at this stage. I'd rather leave any consideration over what to do with the silent ones, if there are any, until much later in the day, when silence will be more of a relevant consideration.

[The Saucepan Man]

Has he been in your mind of late?Sorry, missed this. No, like you, I just don't like the look of him. :p ;)

[Kitanna]

I just popped in before locking myself away for an hour or two of studying. What I've seen so far has left me somewhat speechless. Most of what I would have said is general and has been stated by more than one other person.

One thing is something of Nogrod's:
Glirdy seems to be too detached for a villager. Just casually making himself present but in an alienated way. It sounds bad to be sure.
I haven't played with Glirdan in quite some time, but from what I remember his first post has never been one for substance, usually just some in character remark and then he's gone. I'm willing to overlook this first "alienated" post (as Nogrod puts it), but only if following posts have some substance and in some way benefit.

Well, I need to go for a while, but hopefully I will only be gone for a few hours.

[Nogrod]

I do wonder whether our fisherman, despite his suspiciously peaceable ways, might have a point here. While it doesn't necessarily mark them out as Lembas-eating, Valar-loving surrender monkeys, it does seem to me that Roa and Nogrod are being unduly harsh on those who have not had an opportunity to speak so far.

It is but little over three hours since Mac's body was discovered, and yet Roa and Nogrod are behaving as though it is a crime not to have posted yet. I agree that we want everyone to speak, but I hardly think it incriminating that there are a fair few who have not been able to do so thus far.Well mister Saucepan! I happily saw this before I turned the computer down. This I would call hypochrisy indeed. You are yourself making an appearance of trying to get people speaking but nicely use the similar intentions of others as points against them...

Now who would like to have some named lynchees here this early from the part of the "village" that will probably be noisy and active enough? I do not know of my unduly harshness here but your posting seems to fit the description. I don't think I have said it's a crime to not have posted yet - the timezone-issues and all and only the first hours - but you seem to be happy to make a lot out of it... So I must just ask why as I know you to be a wise player...

So what's the problem? You don't sound innocent my friend... it's not the "substance", but the feeling behind it... trying too hard to look helpful and reasonable, so much as to lose your integrity? Who knows...

It's yet early hours though. I hope we'll have something more to talk when I come back. It would be sad to be wrong with you and basically I wouldn't want to see you go before your time without a good reason (you being a wolf or a cobbler).

The talkers we do need...

EDIT: X-d with Kitanna, and agreeing...

[Durelin]

Alack, you are right, Kath! I'm at a loss. I guess I'll actually have to think. Think? In my first post? That doesn't sound healthy...

But what makes this Day 1 even crazier than the lack of various "role-playing nonsense" is our numbers. While we ordos are 13 strong, and we have some help on our side in the way of a Seer, Ranger, and Hunter, we're up against five nasties who want us all to die. Now I see that some people are rather optimistic about this, and I'd like to be, too, but...that's a lot of us to just go at each other's throats, isn't it?

Everyone who's discussing how the wolves are/will behave is out of their minds. It's Day 1. The wolves don't have to do anything but sit back and let everyone get confused, bogged down by theories and plans.

So what do I have to suggest? Not much, unfortunately, other than stirring things up a bit more. So I quite agree with SPaM and Noggy...and I apologize for not having more time. I'd rather be catching Faithfuls than scanning Latin poetry at this point, trust me...

I find the bits of back and forth between Manwe and SPM interesting, and the simple fact that Manwe is so keen in his fisherman routine. But I suppose after so many WW games starting off with everyone at least a little in character, he wouldn't want to miss out. :D

I find Mith's comment about the Gifteds rather strange, as well. It's nice to know who your allies are, but not if it means your enemies know all about them, too. She seems "easy-going" in a way I would think speaks to her innocence, except it feels a tad forced to me. The "oh, if anyone just so happens to know how to find out who the gifteds are, that'd be dandy!" thing seems forced in this way to me...but that's just me.

Glirdan's post irks me, as any post does that says nothing but complains about people saying nothing. While it's understandable that there's not much going on and so not much to do, I think a little effort to "stir something up" (yes, I'll use that phrase as much as I want!) would have been nice.

I see that Nogrod and SPaM have posted the most...all is right with the world... :p

Another interesting remark, this one from Garin...

Nogrod, it is fine that you are familiar with some of our villagers but don't let that cloud your judgment. They could be among the the treacherous. This is definitely a time in which no one can be trusted.

While I quite agree with not basing guilt/innocence on past experiences, I can just imagine a new-Wolf thinking "don't trust those people you've played with before, but trust me." Nogrod and anyone who's even played one game before comes with a lot of baggage that can mean a person is considered more innocent or more guilty.

Agh, I need to stop before I start reading things into every word of every post.

Unfortunately I'll have to go in a few hours not to return till just about an hour before the deadline tomorrow, so...give me something to read! ;)

Oh, but don't worry...I'll give you a vote to consider before I go.

[Mänwe]

And all the talkers are assembled here, sniping away at one another. The talkers ought to talk less before those who talk less become talkers themselves. Besides talk can just as much make things difficult as easy. I say all here apart from myself have the musky taint of evil about them, to coin an earlier phrase. Nogrod, Roa, Saucepan Man, Kitanna, be you the four faithfuls.

Nogrod, have you perchance merely not heard my questions, or does your ignoring them hide a darker truth? Ahhh the power of rhetoric, not lost among simple folk such as I, fisherman, renowned for it. A well known fishermans tale;

One fisherman has a hook deep in his wrist.
Second fisherman, "Whoose fault was it?"

No need for an answer, the answer is within the first fisherman, yet he chose not to give it. As you have done, with no answer it is 'your fault'. I sense denial in you, something that itches to be released, beneath a full moon perhaps?

Seems to me everyone picks upon Glirdan from the start, Roa, Nogrod are you using this to deflect any insinuations upon yourselves?

[Mänwe]

Sorry, missed this. No, like you, I just don't like the look of him. :p ;)

Sorry I missed this. How last did you see him?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

hmmm after having read through what have been said and done so far, very little jumps to my attention.

It has been the usual non-substance talking and other things I cannot be bothered mentioning.

Of the few things that have seemed slightly odd for me is in fact the latter posts of Mänwe, it is probably mostly because I am not used to his style of writtin/playing, but I do find his whole Nogrod, Roa, Saucepan Man, Kitanna "case" a bit weird.

He pretty much only focus on Nogrod, which seems weird to me, I do how ever understand why he asks the questions he does. . .It has always annoyed me when people can just ignore questions and nobody notices, it is not always a sign of wolvery, but then again nothing ever is.

I don't understand why there are so little elaboration or non about the others. . .

*sigh* We don't need jobs to catch wolves. We don't even need voting records. We need people to talk
Exactly and jobs were brilliant for making people talk, yes the first post would mostly be useless or close to, but it was good as an "conversation starter/accelerator". People have gotten used to it being the way to get the game started and it is therefor only natural that they comment on the lack of occupation.

[Durelin]

I agree with you about Manwe's latest posts. His chatter is the ultimate Day 1 "in-character nonsense." The fact that it is the *ultimate* (a little...extreme?) makes me wonder if it's a copy, a fake of what most of us have seen before.

I know, I know...me complaining about "in-characterness?" But this feels a bit odd. Or maybe this whole "no-jobs" thing is just getting to me.

Right, enough with the talk of jobs and no jobs...

It's Day 1, it's rather quiet, and, typically, I have nothing better to go on.

++Manwe

His bragging of his fisherman wisdom is getting to me. ;)

I shall be back to check things out and reconsider my vote as early before the deadline as possible (hopefully I shall be snowed in a bit at home, and so will have plenty of time, but I am far from optimistic).

[Kitanna]

And all the talkers are assembled here, sniping away at one another. The talkers ought to talk less before those who talk less become talkers themselves. Besides talk can just as much make things difficult as easy. I say all here apart from myself have the musky taint of evil about them, to coin an earlier phrase. Nogrod, Roa, Saucepan Man, Kitanna, be you the four faithfuls.
I'm not familiar with Mänwe's style, but I am trying to understand the logic here. I could understand grouping four people together based on occupation on Day 1, but I'm not following what line of thought he used here. Out of the four he seems to focus on Nogrod and gives no reason as to why he picked the other three (except a little mention of Roa). Mänwe, I hope you plan on explaining this at some point in time.

[Mänwe]

Lackaday, it has come to this, accusations, would that I have it any other way, alas Mac lies dies, disfigured, four culprits there are, and four I dare name, I see nothing absurd or strange in that? How so then would you accuse me as being one of the Faithful, one who would kill, I have spoken in all honesty.

To many times have you all seen someone speak in honesty and being persecuted for it, find that they were indeed honest and innocent of the accusations. You all speak of the lack of jobs, and here I am writing as if I were a fisherman (which I am) I speak the truth, tis not I who is afflicted with the lust for human flesh.

Durelin, you must reconsider. Why should I vehemently deny being a Faithful if indeed have nothing to hide. Because it would seem if I were to stay silent you would use this as further proof against me, seeing as you all, so far, are so avid that silence marks someone as a Faithful.

Perhaps I have been unjust in my accusations, that we all are talking means none of us are what we seek. Would you not better wait till my questions are answered? Rune picks a valuable point, Nogrod has not yet answered them, why so?

Still does not mean I cannot stand by my accusations.

Edit: Simul with Kitanna

Kitanna I have my reasons, but seeing as there is a great deal of mistrust between us all I would not as yet venture to explain. Though I find your own reasoning for Glirdan being a faithful tenuous also.

[Mänwe]

I would like to ask though why my fishermans ways are so strange to you all? Are our thoughts and conversations not all baseless at the moment?

[Kitanna]

Kitanna I have my reasons, but seeing as there is a great deal of mistrust between us all I would not as yet venture to explain. Though I find your own reasoning for Glirdan being a faithful tenuous also.
Of course there is mistrust, so why waste a chance to try to alleviate some of that? The longer you wait the more suspicious you look.
Also I think you misunderstand what I said about Glirdan. It wasn't a suspicion. I didn't say I thought him a faithful. I said I found his first post a usual post for him, but in future posts more substance is needed.

[Rikae]

I'm sorry I'm so late -
as I read through the posts this far, the only person that jumps out as overtly suspicious is Manwe - not because of his in-character posting (I don't see anything wrong with a bit of light-hearted banter) but because there is something slightly forced, or fabricated, about the actual content of his posts.
For example:
Still those who give out odd vibes may be doing so by way of double bluff...but your right, early posts do seem to ramble.This makes no logical sense - since it's already been pointed out that both baddies and gifteds could seem "odd", the only person for whom such a vibe would be a bluff would be an ordo. But does it make any sense for an ordo to bluff in such a way? Manwe seems to be making the sort of pseudo-analytical comment a faithful would use as a smokescreen.

Then there is his second post, where he accuses several people in one fell swoop and with little basis. He seems to be tossing suspicion around indiscriminately, hoping it will stick somewhere, and just about anywhere will do.

For lack of any other leads at the moment, I'll vote:
++Manwe

[Mänwe]

Then we do have crossed fishing lines somewhere. Your words are now as clear as cloudless sky. Though on your point about my accusations I cannot see how they are more ambiguous than everyone elses. The moments after such a horrific event are usually dominated with flying accusations with little evidence.

I picked you because (and in hindsight perhaps wrongly on light of what you actually meant) your pouncing on poor Glirdan's posting seemed only to reflect what everyone else was doing, whether merely commenting on his first activities or labelling him as suspicious I still felt you were following suit with Nogrod and Roa, who also immediately pounced upon him. Glirdan I have noticed seems to be always quickly accused and eliminated. Perhaps he does not help himself still on most occasions he has proven innocent. That was my reasoning for choosing you three. As simple as that. *Points to 1st post, I thought it outlined my reasons for choosing them clear*

I threw SPaM into the furry mix for no other reason that to throw an accusation. :D That and I am curious as to why he believes that Hookbill is the shady character I am sure he is...that and he was agreeing with what I was saying. Perhaps he is trying to take shelter under my innocent shadow is all I am saying. Though why Nogrod would want to argue against SPaM if SPaM is indeed a Faithful, though strange tactics are always a foot. Perhaps a double bluff...

[Mänwe]

Rikae my throwing accusations is nothing new, it has been done many times before. I am simply trying to help all others get ideas flowing, innocent villagers that is. Mhm, 'forced' perhaps, sincere most certainly. Though I add my accusations are only in light of what ive read, and I pick out particular points of those postings. They are not any old chaff thrown out to disguise the homing in of a missile.

For the moment I stand by what I say, and urge all other villagers to do the same.

++ Nogrod.

[Holbytlass]

Aargh, Macalaure's body isn't even properly taken care of yet and already fingerpointing and votes have occured. And annalyzing?! We are not opposed to this but wow- a few prayers for the dead may be in order and perhaps a few more for inspiration. Although quite frankly I'm not sure who we're to pray to.

I don't find Manwe suspicious at all but these votes that have accumulated already is weird. I know, I know they can be retracted but the fact someone is following someone so closely so early sends red flags.

But what that leaves me - with persons I know even a little - is Holby, Mith and Lommy, neither of whom I would wish to help lynched at this stage (well, who could one wish to lynch at this stage anyhow?).
Let me help you out, at least with me. I am notoriously quiet-although I try not to lurk. Sometimes I'm bad, sometimes I'm good and alot of times I'm extra good. SpM can attest to that.

And all the talkers are assembled here, sniping away at one another. The talkers ought to talk less before those who talk less become talkers themselves. Besides talk can just as much make things difficult as easy.
Oh, I get this perfectly-they do make it easier.

[Gil-Galad]

i definately got to play it slow now...

i will review and post later in morning, but right now i see that Nogrod and Manwe are under speculation so i will view them

[Garin]

Durelin: I can just imagine a new-Wolf thinking "don't trust those people you've played with before, but trust me."

I assure you that this is not my first venture into such a village. I just haven't been around for nearly a year because of my travels.

I'm still unsettled by Mith's talk of gifteds. It doesn't seem to be something an actual gifted or a ordo villager would dare bring up but one of these Faithfuls or a Cobbler would.

I can understand Manwe wanting to bolster dialog by making blind accusations but the downside is offending the wrong people and taking a quick trip to the gallows. Plus, having to switch to such a defensive mode always makes one look guilty.

Sauce is terribly hard for me to read anything from. If he is innocent, I doubt the Faithfuls will kill him at night because he will probably be viewed as suspicious by us villagers sooner than later.

Roa and Nogrod did seem a little feisty very early on. I already alluded to the fact that Nogrod was more hesitant to lynch some more than others did not sit well with me. It just seemed like an odd first day stance to take.

Did I mention how much I love first day?

That's why Kitanna hassling Manwe for better reasons didn't make too much sense to me. It pretty much impossible to back up suspicions this early. Maybe someone is trying to draw the seer out of hiding?

I hoped to address everyone who has posted but I'm out of time for now.

I think at least one Faithful was among the earliest posters and I doubt if they are addressing each other much while wearing their daytime disguises.

It is possible they might try to sacrifice one of their own early on as a diversion.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, what an awakening!

I'm saying forward that I have no experience with Were-faithful, not even with Were-wolves as some of you have (being serving under our lord Annatar a long time ago or being hunted by the wolves in Hither lands before poor old king Pharazon made peace with lord Annatar). And the dispute about possible murderers of poor Macalaure already runs - until I was able to collect (I hope at least some) the information posted here, about a hour has passed and I have yet to leave for a moment, but fortunately, I'll be back in little time and then rethink everything. Possibly, something will come to me. But so far now, I want to add my bits to the discussion, just from what popped on me when reading this through. Only from my random thoughts, hopefully if I am completely "out of plate", you'd just ignore this.

I didn't quite catch the point of Mith and Lalaith's dispute about the Gifteds, generally (as someone already said here) I think it is the best for the Gifteds to stay hidden, so there is no concern of distinguishing them - they will try to leak their own bits of information to us, if I understand it correctly, it's the best they can do (without accidentally sacrificing themselves by revealing their identity).

Some peoples' posts seemed strange to me somehow at first, but after reading later on, I think I learned that is some way of "normal behavior" for them.

Mänwe seemed a little bit, let's say, harsh to me, but still this does not prove to me he's a Were-faithful. But if he is not Were-faithful, then I think it's just nonsense to make too much a mess like he did. Only for illustration, this:

Seriously, it's Day 1, everyone's alive, where are they?
You also seem impatient to meet everyone; I cannot help but think it’s not just for a bit of idle chatter. Seeking the tastiest amongst us? I assure you, your lupine nose would turn at the smell of my quarters. Being stained with the smell of fish, which I would add is not in order to hide my evil musk!
This seems to me like accusing out of nothing. I also might add here that Roa seems ok to me, I didn't spot anything strange on her behavior here.

I'll write more now, but I really have to leave (I am 10 minutes late already, hence, I start understanding the WW players' feelings :D ). But surely I'll come back again and then re-think everything and hopefully bring things further.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Blast! I knew I'd left it too late. Now I have to read through all these posts before making any proper comments.
If nothing else, the death was... poetic? 'Seven' things an' all that stuff...

Back soon to make proper comments...

[Thinlómien]

I can't see how Lalaith is suspicious. I think she sounds very innocent and reasonable and I don't think she's making an issue about Mith's comment. I don't see Mith as particularly suspicious either. I think their discussion about gifteds is one most probably between two innocents. Of course you can't be sure of anyone's innocence at this phase, but these two ladies don't ring my alarms right now.

...the Hunter and Ranger know each other and so we will be spared the hell that is two Gifted's going after each other without realising it!You've obviously forgotten the disastrous possibility of a hunter (or a ranger) being against the seer.... *coughyouandDiamondkilledmormonce* ;) Anyway, I think the situation is pretty equal; there is four (instead of the normal three) baddies and they have a helper, but in other hand, there's more ordos than normal and the faithfuls have only one kill per night, as Nogrod noted. (As a sidenote, I think that comment of his was a bit weird... I mean, it was kind of Noggie-like silent criticism about his side being outnumbered...)

I've been often persuaded (either by myself or my fellow villagers) to lynch an innocent Glirdy, since he's acting in an odd way, so I'll be a bit more careful this time. Whether he's innocent or guilty, he's weird. Keeping that in mind, I have nothing against him... yet. (No this does not mean I think we should not pay attention to him or not to try to analyse him, this just means that we should keep in mind that he often tends to seem very suspicious even when he's innocent.) I think some people are making a bit too big fuss about a first post...

What bothers me is that I tend to agree with Roa here (as we should be the cat and the dog - which one of us is what is an open question)...Dog = wolf and I've not forgotten about Valier's werecats game, so what about lynching these two? Then we'd be done with 50% of the Faithfuls. :p

...it does seem to me that Roa and Nogrod are being unduly harsh on those who have not had an opportunity to speak so far.

It is but little over three hours since Mac's body was discovered, and yet Roa and Nogrod are behaving as though it is a crime not to have posted yet. I agree that we want everyone to speak, but I hardly think it incriminating that there are a fair few who have not been able to do so thus far. I disagree with you here. They've talked about silent posters, but I don't see the, as "behaving as though it is a crime not to have posted yet". I think they're their normal "speak up people"-selves. I can assure you they're far worse when they're really harsh on silent people... :D

Mänwe's totally weird, but not necessarily in a bad way. He's had some good points.

Rikae's quick vote on Mänwe is quite weird. I mean, she just comes, makes a few points, votes and leaves. Of course she might be in a hurry, but why didn't she say that. She might have tried to lay pressure on Mänwe to get him jumpy to see if he's a wolf or not, but I'm not too sure about that option. After all, there had been some pressure on him already. If she wanted to pressure test someone, why had she to choose Mänwe? Speaking of which I think his calmness speaks for his innocence.

Pretty much everyone seems their normal selves and I have hardly any suspicions. I'll reread the thread again next, and see if I can come up with anything more intelligent and original than this first-impression post...

edit: xed with Legate and Hookbill

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Though i'd add as a sailor quick decisions saves lives, and while i don't cast aspersions often nor am I accusing now who be the culprit, but I am eager to find out who twas that perpetrated this foul deed, and i've never much liked the look of Hookbill....

The only murderin' I'll do is in a slanderous story in a Newspaper form. :p

Then again, I rather agree with you about that Hookbill fellow

Infamy! Infamy! They've all got it in for me! :eek: Look, I know the story about your house being burned down was only half true, but it was a slow news day!


I am glad you see sense and agree with me. Has he been in your mind of late?

Now, the main reason I've refrained from joining these games is because I'm not too good a judge of character and I tend not to read into what people say... but it seems to me that you are hinting at Old Saucepan 'O as being a what do you call it... seer or whatever. Surely suggesting it would put him in danger and we would want to keep him in case he proves helpful, and shouting, "I say! I think he's the seer" will surely either lead the wolves / Were Faithfuls onto him. So... bad form old chap...


Sorry, missed this. No, like you, I just don't like the look of him.

What the? I! Do I have something on my face?

Legate Surely everyone is a bit jumpy on Day One? I mean, someone just got killed. Let's not jump on people's backs until we have a bigger trampoline... But I see your point and this are Serous matter and we must consider all angles... I'll need to think about all this.

[Brinniel]

Well, as I am quite new to all this, I have been observing for the last several hours trying to figure out exactly what to say. I have a tendency to be great observer and sometimes forget to jump right in, so I will be sure to do my best. So, here I shall take my first plunge...

Many seem to be accusing Manwe, and while he may be "harsh" as Legate puts it, he is also new to this and perhaps harshness is simply his style...foolish maybe, but that's no reason to immediately point fingers at him. I do not see any reason to suspect him...not yet at least. I think I would rather like to observe him a little longer first...

Infamy! Infamy! They've all got it in for me!
Hmm...now Hookbill, you seem a bit nervous about all these one-liners made on you. Do you have a reason to be worried? Hiding something perhaps?

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Hmm...now Hookbill, you seem a bit nervous about all these one-liners made on you. Do you have a reason to be worried?

Wouldn't you? :rolleyes:

It just seemed a bit random that they were all being so mean. :(

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

(Cpl. Hicks in the movie Aliens)

I like to see Lommy's, Hookbill's and Brinniel's posts here. (I think it is far better to come and see five new posts since you left than seeing a 40-post long thread like I did in the morning.)

First, only in reaction to them, I have to say only that I quite agree with Lommy's post. To your concerns, Brinniel & Hookbill, I supposed I can bear the one-liners about Hookbill only as a funny, maybe a little rpg-ish chatter (since he hasn't even posted when it was spoken about), or at least I thought so. I think it'd be better to be careful not to start anything from nothing. This is/are a serious thread, right? Do you really seriously think they are accusing you, Hookbill? And Brinniel, do you really seriously suspect Hookbill of something because of this? If not, I think it'd be better not to even start with it, or at least, if it seems we decided not to be too much roleplayish this time (which is a shame, I think).

In general. Seems to me (only seems, I might be badly mistaken) many people assume too much here. I already said that about Mänwe, the same is with the Saucepan Man (see Lommy's post). Although I understand we need a good deal of people who are more forward, because otherwise we'll never move out of place, too many accusations won't help us, I think.

I think I now understand how important is that all people post, because otherwise there is nothing to learn. And who sits and says nothing, is likely a wolf (err, Faithful) - or in worse case, he is a villager (who is not worth anything for the community, if I say it very nastily). But the wolves also need to go around and make a mess by putting us on wrong track, thus, if everyone participates in the discussion, possibly "the one who speaks the loudest bears the banner of the Tree".

Mänwe seems generally most suspicious to me because of, as I mentioned, his ruthless behavior. Also for some unknown reason he seems "mixing apples with pears" (Roa with Nogrod). Perhaps I am completely ignorant, but while Nogrod might seem a little bit suspicious (but so far I put Nogrod under the cathegory "posts strange, but perhaps it's normal like that and there are more who post similar"), I don't see anything suspicious about Roa, and I don't know where some - namely Mänwe, the Saucepan Man and Garin - take that she seems suspicious.

Anyway, I tried to express my feelings on all the matters here, and this is just the best I can do for now. Hopefully, in time I'll learn how to walk in it better. I'll be back, but don't know when yet, but surely before the evening.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Do you really seriously think they are accusing you, Hookbill?

Ho-ho-ho! Of course not! :D (But they can expect slander in upcoming Newspapers *Evil grin* )

I agree with Legate that Mänwe has been just a tad ruthless. I will, for now, put it down to over eagerness or possibly chocolate. As I've said, I don't think I'm the kind of person to deal out death and judgement, even the wisest cannot see all ends.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Exactly. And also as the awful Elf-creatures say, "advice is a dangerous gift, even from the wise to the wise". I supposed it is not serious, Hookbill, but Brinniel's reaction seemed serious to me. Perhaps I am getting paranoid from all this (and it's just the first day!).

[Brinniel]

And Brinniel, do you really seriously suspect Hookbill of something because of this?
No, I can honestly say I do not seriously suspect anyone in particular at this point of time.
Though, perhaps, Hookbill's reaction was slightly overdone. ;)

I still feel hesitant about accusing Manwe, no matter how harsh he may seem. I don't know...I will have to think about this some more before casting in my vote...

[Thinlómien]

Perhaps I am getting paranoid from all this (and it's just the first day!).When I first read this thread through, my first impression was that this is the most paranoid first day ever. But probably I was just exaggerating... :p

[the guy who be short]

I'm unhappy with day one banter. Day ones almost always end in the lynching of an innocent for the most spurious evidence; thus far, I have seen nothing much condemning from anybody.

I should mention that there is a prophecy (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=398395&highlight=tgwbs+campaign#post398395) to be fulfilled. Kath is mean, and should be lynched. :p Well... give me a reason not to, Kathwin.

I will also say that our votes so far are for Manwe and Nogrod, who have both been loud. Other than them, suspicion seems to fall on those that are loud, simply because they have something to say. This can then be analysed and twisted, whether intentionally or not, in all sorts of ways. For this reason, I have always been more inclined to suspect the quiet, who seem to "fly under the radar".

And so I will mention with only mild suspicion (which is more than I have for anybody else) the quiet:
Holbytlass admits to being quiet.
Kath (prophecy!) hasn't said much yet.
Gil-galad has said nothing worth mentioning.
Glirdan has said little (and, on a side-note, said Adieu. Which God, eh? :p) However, it interests me that among all the quiet people, people have jumped on Glirdan alone. I wonder why. I doubt it is Faithfuls, for they never seem to have coherent strategies for Day 1, wishing rather to let the ordos confuse themselves. So why have all you people jumped on Glirdan and not any of the others on this list? Roa, SpM, Durelin, this means you.
Lalaith and Mith, other than the early posts, have been very quiet.
Nothing from The Might.

I appreciate we have several hours of Daylight left, so I will not attack those who have said nothing. For all I know, they could come and say something valuable in a few hours. I am therefore most suspicious of those who have spoken without saying anything.

[Holbytlass]

It is quite the canundrum of DAY1's. Day one lynchee is usually a high poster voted for by those who wish to be helpful to the village and only rarely is a baddie caught. Quiet/nontalkers are rarely lynched as it's seen as bad form to lynch someone without giving them a chance to speak.

So at this point, all those who have been highly accused/voted for and those doing the major accusing I find innocent at this time.
namelyManwe Nogrod Lommy Durelin Rikae that's not to say that those who accused hadn't gotten a hit but we just don't know till the deed is done.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

wow there is a lot of people really confusing me. . .

People seem to be very jumpy and are reacting somewhat strongly to small things, normally I would be happy to see such actions as it is good for analyzing. This time however the people who do so are not someone I have played with before and therefor it might just be "paranoia" as Legate puts it.

I do not know what to think about Holby's post she does not say much, mostly it is just random comments, save for her thoughts on Mänwe and the votes he has gained. It just seems very neutral, but I am fearing that the main reason I look at this with suspicion is because not long ago I encountered a "Bad Holby"

Hookbill seems innocent to me and do not understand the fuzz there was made about his post.

[Thinlómien]

Good point about that jumping on quiet ones, TGWBS, and I'm glad to hear from you. Now there's just one villager who hasn't posted yet and many jolly Day1 hours to go...

~*~

Holby, I find it weird that you put me on that list... I mean, hardly anyone has accused me this far, and I don't think I've been accusing much either (I've just said that Rikae's a bit weird and one little comment of Nogrod's is odd)...

~*~

I hate voting this early. But no net access home = early votes. (In future - assuming I'm alive - I will vote a few hours later, but today I just can't hang aruond in the school library later.)

++Rikae

She's the only one to catch my eye today. I'm not very convinced of her guilt, but she's the biggest suspect I have at this phase. Besides that I can't get her early vote on Mänwe I think she jumps on Mänwe a bit too eagerly. Her case against him is not - in my opinion - very reasoned, or voteworthy. (But I'm afraid this case against Rikae isn't one either. :rolleyes: The difference - or how I see it - is that I need to vote right now and as far as I know, Rikae didn't have to vote when she voted.) But I consider it a fact that you rarely have anything reasonable to go on before Day2, or late Day1.

Also, I'm keeping my eye on Durelin, she's a bit too fast to accuse too...

dit: xed with Rune

[Kath]

I should mention that there is a prophecy to be fulfilled. Kath is mean, and should be lynched. Well... give me a reason not to, Kathwin.
And you shall have one! Go back to that thread, read the next post down and you shall find the following comment, typed by you:

Hehe, Kath, I'd never do that.
So my dear if you go against your word and vote for me on the basis of a prophecy you yourself negated, well, that wouldn't be very innocent looking now would it? :p

Ah so, what's been going on? Manwe seems to have got himself into quite a bit of bother. Right now I don't think it's anything suspicious. He's a newbie (right?) finding his own place in these games. I for one want to see how he behaves in later days. If it turns out that the four he named really are the Faithful's we may have another Valier on our hands! At any rate, I don't want to see him lynched at present.

Legate looks to be the self-appointed voice of reason. I'm all for making sure people don't take things too personally but with his mediating between Hookbill and Brinniel (something there was no need for) he seems to be trying to set himself up as the calm one. I don't know, I just don't like it.

Hookbill appears to be behaving normally to me. The accusations against him haven't actually been accusations in the sense that people think he's guilty (except possibly from Manwe who keeps repeating it) and he hasn't been overly defensive. His replies were amusing more than offended.

Durelin apparently flourishes without an occupation to fall back on! Perhaps we shouldn't allow her one is future games. :p

Got to go again. It's good that people have started to talk, we've had a comment from all but one player now is that right? Hopefully they'll have spoken by the time I get back and I'll have to whole village to have a quick look at.

[the guy who be short]

So my dear if you go against your word and vote for me on the basis of a prophecy you yourself negated, well, that wouldn't be very innocent looking now would it?Ah, but we are an island of treacherous Numenoreans! What are these values that you speak of - loyalty and integrity? Sounds mighty Faithful to me!

(I'd just like to make clear that the whole Kath-prophecy was a joke. My bone to pick with her was quietness, which she is overcoming.)

[Holbytlass]

Holby, I find it weird that you put me on that list... I mean, hardly anyone has accused me this far, and I don't think I've been accusing much either (I've just said that Rikae's a bit weird and one little comment of Nogrod's is odd)...
I merely stated a handful of names that are in the thick of things on this first day and are usually innocent. The pattern of vocals taking each other out sort of thing, as in you voting for Rikae for voting Manwe-all three of you are most likely innocent. All are vocal. But by all means I can put you on my forming suspicious list :D.

[The Saucepan Man]

Unfortunately, this day holds much for me on another plane of existence, so I’ll try to get my thoughts down on all that has transpired while I have been away in one go. Apologies, as always, for the length. My nickname, it seems, is well earned. :rolleyes:

This I would call hypochrisy indeed. You are yourself making an appearance of trying to get people speaking but nicely use the similar intentions of others as points against them...I fail to see any hypocrisy here at all. While I am keen for people to speak as much as possible, I am content to give them more than a few hours to do so. You, on the other hand, appeared to be rather cheesed off that most of the village had not spoken in the early hours. And, as I said, I didn’t think it necessarily marked you out as a Faithful. It was, for me, simply a point to consider among the others. Now, however, I am not so sure. I find your reaction to what I would regard as a quite reasonable observation on my part quite interesting. And I note the little “dig”, questioning why I am apparently not living up to my (supposed) reputation as a “wise” player – which looks to me to be calculated to evince a reaction which you might use against me.

Now I see that some people are rather optimistic about this, and I'd like to be, too, but...that's a lot of us to just go at each other's throats, isn't it?Indeed, I did note the haste with which some villagers sought to reassure the village of our prospects. Nogrod and Kath, I think, were the main culprits. It’s possible that one or both may be trying to lull us into a false sense of security. One should never be over-confident where Faithfuls are concerned.

Sorry I missed this. How last did you see him?If you mean in role-playing terms, I saw him as a disreputable and shady fellow. If you mean in terms of whether he might actually be a Faithful, he had not posted at the time of our exchange. He has now, but I see nothing overly suspicious in what he has said (other than his attempt to blackmail us by threatening slanderous stories in the press ;)).

Which brings me to the vexed question of Mänwe, who appears to have gathered some early suspicion. At first, I did find his posts rather strange and difficult to follow. But that may just be his style, so I am not prepared to condemn him for it without more. And, when one considers what he says more carefully, there is actually a fair degree of sense there. As for his bold early accusations, well it is a tried and tested tactic to put some names into the pot and see what reactions it provokes (let’s call it the “mormegil manoeuvre” :D), so I am not too concerned about that.

What does concern me, however, is that there appear to have been a number who have championed him as a primary candidate for lynching, and I do wonder whether this might have resulted from a perception by one or more of the Faithful that his style might make him a possible Day 1 lynch. In this regard, I am rather suspicious of Legate, Kitanna and, in particular, Rikae, all of whom appear to have jumped on Rune’s tentative suspicion of Mänwe and Durelin’s early vote for him. Rikae’s vote, being as it was in her first post, was made with alarming alacrity (although I accept that it is retractable).

I am also slightly concerned at the way that Glirdan appears to have been targeted, by Nogrod in particular, without him actually having said very much. While his insubstantial first post annoyed me too, I don’t see it as any particular reason to suspect him, without more. I wonder whether he too may have been targeted as a potential easy Day 1 lynch. And, for the record TGWBS, I did not “jump” on Glirdan, but merely (like you) mentioned him, along with Kath, as one of those who had posted, but without much substance (Holbytlass and Gil-Galad had not posted by that stage). Nogrod, on the other hand, appears to have gone further and perceived sinister motives behind Glirdan’s inconsequential offering.

So at this point, all those who have been highly accused/voted for and those doing the major accusing I find innocent at this time.
namelyManwe Nogrod Lommy Durelin Rikae that's not to say that those who accused hadn't gotten a hit but we just don't know till the deed is done.

Holby, I find it weird that you put me on that list... I mean, hardly anyone has accused me this far, and I don't think I've been accusing much either (I've just said that Rikae's a bit weird and one little comment of Nogrod's is odd)...I found Holby’s list rather strange too, as it did not really reflect fully my understanding of those who have been doing the most accusing and/or been under the most suspicion. Also, she does rather avoid drawing any conclusion with the statement: “but we just don't know till the deed is done”. How is that supposed to help us?

In conclusion, based on what has occurred so far, Nogrod and Rikae look the most suspicious to me. I still have in mind Mithalwen’s early comment about Faithful/Gifted behaviour, but much has happened since then, and I am inclined to view it for now (and without more) as a “first post” statement designed to get discussion underway.

[Gil-Galad]

i would like to jump on to holby's statement of being quiet, i more commonly don't say much worth mentioning till later in the week(if you will), so this early i'm not much help at all...


i feel that Manwe is gaining a bit too much suspicion... and i don't feel his wolfish tendacies, here follows my wolfish hunches, remember they are just hunches


Saucepanman
Hookbill
TGWBS
Rikae

remember, they are hunches but my hunches have wierd ways of working them out

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Hookbill appears to be behaving normally to me... His replies were amusing more than offended.

Well, you've got to keep a light heart. I mean, it's not as if it's a matter of life and death... erm... wait... yes it is! :eek:

I fail to see any hypocrisy here at all. While I am keen for people to speak as much as possible, I am content to give them more than a few hours to do so. You, on the other hand, appeared to be rather cheesed off that most of the village had not spoken in the early hours.

I agree, and don't forget to factor in Time difference. A lot of posts happened while I was asleep!

other than his attempt to blackmail us by threatening slanderous stories in the press

Don't think I won't. ;) *writes down 'Saucepan man in 'eats house' scandal'*

At the moment, I cannot see that anyone has given any real reason to be voted for the lynching. It is early days, mind you and I am a terrible judge of character. Manwe made some off handed comments which I will put down to, well, a momentary lack of tact or something. But then again, it could be engineered to look like that... or it may be a triple bluff and... I don't know... I'll get back to you on this...

[the guy who be short]

I am answered regarding Glirdan, SpM. I also note that Roa did not actually voice much suspicion of him, so I retract the question from her also. But the question remains for durelin: Why were you worried by Glirdan not saying much, but not Kath?

I am also slightly concerned at the way that Glirdan appears to have been targeted, by Nogrod in particular, without him actually having said very much.Bear in mind this from Nogrod:

Speak up people, otherwise we can't nail the baddies... and if it becomes to that, I will be the first to vote for those who do not talk without an acceptable explanation.A sensible view, and one I fully endorce. Though the above question now goes to Nogrod also: Why pick out Glirdan and avoid mentioning Kath, who also said nothing, but with more words?



For the record, voting now stands at:
Durelin -> Manwe
Rikae -> Manwe
Manwe -> Nogrod
Thinlomien -> Rikae

In conclusion, here is a list of what I feel the following villagers are most likly to be, and why, in no particular order:

Innocent
Nogrod - Dislikes those who are too quiet. Makes sense.
SpM - Makes a lot of sense. His slight accusation of Mith (see below)perked my interest - a very good point I hadn't noticed.

Faithful:
Mithalwen - But if anyone has a watertight method for distinguishing gifted odd vibe from wolvish odd vibe please share!This information should obviously not be shared.
Manwe - Too harsh and questioning, doesn't explain his list of potential Faithfuls, secretive and too in-character. Accuses Nogrod for his vocabulary.
Rikae - Her first post was a vote. While I agree with the vote, I would like to know why it was cast so quickly. I, personally, would require time to decide on a vote.

I am also ever so slightly suspicious of the quiet for the very fact of being quiet: Glirdan, Gil-Galad, The Might.


Finally, three things aimed at three people:
1) I would like to hear more from Mithalwen about her early request for information on identifying gifteds. I am most inclined to vote for Mith, for that statement and for being so quiet thereafter.
2) I would like Rikae to explain how she came to vote so rapidly.
3) Gil-Galad, can you explain your hunches? I understand the point of a hunch is to be inexplicable, which doesn't help us, but still.

[Roa_Aoife]

To be fair, it is always worthwhile to bear in mind that Gifteds can sometimes appear suspicious, by their nature.

I'm well aware of that- but I believe it's the gifted's job to take care of themselves. We should go about the business of wolf hunting instead of fretting over our protectors.

What bothers me is that I tend to agree with Roa here (as we should be the cat and the dog - which one of us is what is an open question)...

*ahem* Meow. ;)

that's a lot of us to just go at each other's throats, isn't it?

You should have been here for Deuling Wizards.


I think I now understand how important is that all people post, because otherwise there is nothing to learn. And who sits and says nothing, is likely a wolf (err, Faithful) - or in worse case, he is a villager (who is not worth anything for the community, if I say it very nastily). But the wolves also need to go around and make a mess by putting us on wrong track, thus, if everyone participates in the discussion, possibly "the one who speaks the loudest bears the banner of the Tree".

Legate, you're a player after my own heart. :)

When I first read this thread through, my first impression was that this is the most paranoid first day ever. But probably I was just exaggerating...

Again, Deuling Wizards.



As to my accusers, (Manwe and SPM, and anyone else who I missed).

I never "jumped on" Glirdan. I was using him as an example of what not to do. Neither did I say that anyone quiet was a faithful. I've seen villages destroyed by quietness, and wolves come to easy victory because if it. It is a fact the woves, or cats or faithfuls, or penguins, or whatever else the great Mod God's happen to come up with, have a tendency to kill either the loudest or the quietest players. The loudest because a quiet village is easily overrun by bold wolves, and the quietest because it leaves no discernable trail for us to follow. So, be noisy, indeed, but more than that, put some SUBSTANCE into your posts. It's also true that the wolves divide their numbers during the day - some are noisy, some are quiet. They attack one of their own while ignoring the others. Quietness doesn't = wolf. Quietness doesn't even mean a bad player. But quietness does make it easier for the wolves to run the village, straight to the ground.

As I said, I've seen villages destroyed by their own quietnes. But I've never seen I noisy village go down for speaking, except when that speaking is all but hot air.

I'll be back in a moment with some analysis.

[Roa_Aoife]

Nogrod (Because I have to)

1st post – Thinks we have a good chance of winning, agrees with Mith about
the dangers of lynching a gifted, finds Lalaith’s posts odd, thinks we
should lynch the nice ones, doesn’t want to lynch Thin, Holby and Mith, says
it’s hard to jump on anyone just now.

2nd post – First impression: Mith- innocent, Lalaith- hasty but innocent,
Manwe- unknown, Kath- unkown, Glirdan- suspicious

(Why do people do this? I never understood.)

3rd post - Says he's not trusting anyone, banter with Roa

4th post - Worried that he's agreeing with Roa, thinks Glirdan is too detached, suggests looking at attitude, agrees with SPM about talking

(That would worry me, too, if it wasn't what we always agree on)

5th post - Says SPM is being hypocritical, and blowing things out of proportion, thus making SPM suspicious

(I can see his point about SPM. Infact some other things bothered me about him.)

I actually don't see anything here other than typical Nogrod. I don't believe he "jumped on" Glirdan at all, and at one point he even agreed with Kitanna that it would be beneficial to wait and see what Glirdan had to say. All the cases against him don't seem to hold much merit with that in mind.

So, his great accuser, Manwe:

1st post – immediately points to newbiness, and typical quietness, suspects
that everyone will feel odd, brings up double bluffing, throws vague
suspicion on Hookbill

(Ah, the good old "Newbie" defense.)

2nd post - thinks Nogrod and Roa are suspicious for being too harsh on the quiet, response to SPM's suspicions?, jumps on hookbill line from SPM

(For someone who accuses other of jumping onto easy targets, he seems mighty jumpy himself.)

3rd post - says the four faithfuls are Nogrod, Roa, Saucepan Man, and Kitanna, says Nogrod hasn't answered his questions yet, thinks this makes him guilty, says Roa and Nogrod are picking on Glirdan to draw suspicion from themselves

(A bold statement, but nothing to back it)

4th post - again, grabs onto Hookbill line from SPM

(SPM's clearly joking, but Manwe seems almost serious about this.)

5th post - says since there are four faithful, he names four suspects, doesn't think it's odd, calls back to remember other innocent who were lynched, asks Durelin to reconsider, says he would only vehemently deny being a faithful if he was one, says he may be wrong, but would wait until Nogrod answered his questions, cross posted, said Kitanna's suspicion of Glirdan makes her suspicious

(His defense here is full of holes and shady aspects. Firstly, spotting all four wolves on Day 1 is impossible, secondly, a good portion of the village wasn't even present at this point. It just screams of recklessness. Also, pointing to all the innocents who were lynched for being too suspicious looks designed to cause hesitation in everyone. Also, what question did he ask Nogrod that was vital? I've been keeping a running summary of everything written, and even I missed it.)

6th post - suggest that everything is baseless right now

(If everything is baseless, what are you blathering on about?)

7th post - Understands Kitanna now, says flying accusations are only natural, explains his suspcion as people who pounced apon Glirdan, except for SPM, who was just a baseless accusation to stir things up, but does suspect him on grasping onto his Hookbill idea

(Flying accusations never helped the village. At best, they confuse and focus our attention on a select few, blinding us to whatever else lays out there.)

8th post - Says throwing accusations about is nothing new, says he's just trying to get other's ideas flowing, Votes Nogrod

(How can it not be new for you if this is your first time playing? This screams cop-out to me.)

Conclusion: If he's not a Faithful, he's the Cobbler.

SPM next.

[Nogrod]

First of all I think a wise were-fatihful would avoid controversies espacially on Day1. Why to stand out aloud while sitting in the shadows is more than enough? So I do not think Manwë is a wolf. He plays too daringly to be one.

Secondly. Before you collectively decide that I'm a baddie-maniac after Glirdy trying to get him killed with any cost, just think of it a second. And maybe you should also look what I wrote about Glirdy

#12Glirdy looks somewhat normal but there is a feeling I get from his post... I don't know what. I know I myself disagree with voting the most "usual suspects" as it tends to turn bad for us, but still I can't help feeling that from those already posted I would say he's the most suspicious one. But that's a little to say and calls for reconsideration after some more posting from you all...

#19Glirdy seems to be too detached for a villager. Just casually making himself present but in an alienated way. It sounds bad to be sure.

Hope you have more to say later on Glirdy! I know it's early, but there are things to be observed other than "substance" also early in the game, like attitudes behind the words... the problem is that an unenchanted villager might go for it as you do.
So that's it. Not much in a way of "targeting him".

But what I am concerned is all those people who pick up ideas from others and start to carry that lended flag around ("X had good points about Y"). As we know the were-faithfuls need to fabricate their cases and so they are always somewhat superficial. What then better than lending an idea from a misguided innocent?

Okay. I'll reread the stuff before continuing.

[Holbytlass]

I think Mithalwen's vibe comment about sharing is rhetorical but does have merit in cautioning us to be careful. I quite recall the village where almost all specials had to reveal themselves because they were being lynched. Since she has not pursued this I think others are taking this beyond what its meant to be.

[the guy who be short]

Since she has not pursued this [statement about finding gifteds] I think others are taking this beyond what its meant to be.She hasn't pursued it, because she hasn't been here. That statement is the only thing she has said, and so the only thing, thus far, to judge her upon.

It also didn't feel rhetorical to me.

[Mithalwen]

TGWBS ..I have been quiet becasue IU haven't been near a computer again til now... just off to read up on what I have missed.

[Roa_Aoife]

I quite recall the village where almost all specials had to reveal themselves because they were being lynched.

I quite recall a village where the same happened, and we had so many known innocents running about it was near impossible for the wolves to hide. (And they didn't for very long.) Anyways:

SPM

1st post - banter with Mith, thinks discussing faithful behavior is dangerous, thinks analysis of words is the best course of action, request people to talk, mild jab at Manwe

2nd post - thinks the lack of roleplaying is nice, responds to Roa: the gifted tend to look very suspicious

3rd post - Thinks it's odd that Nogrod and Roa are "berating" the quiet.

(Here he clearly takes things out of proportion. Niether Nogrod nor myself "berated" anyone. We said the exact same thing that he said- talking good, quiet bad)

4th post - joking about Hookbill

5th post - Will be busy today, doesn't think he was being hypocritical, says Nogrod appeared angry that people had not spoken, says he never thought it made Nogrod look Faithful, but his reaction to the statement did, calls his own point reasonable vs Nogrod's unreasonable reaction, says Kath and Nogrod may be trying to lure us into a false sense of security, more joking about Hookbill, seems to exonerate Manwe for being new, Worried about the people who are voting for him, says Glirdan has been targeted by Nogrod, finds Holby's list a bit strange, thinks Nogrod and Rikae are the most suspicious

(Again, making Nogrod appear more agressive than he actually is. Nogrod never appeared angry over anything. Also, I note his little move there comparing his reasonableness to Nogrod's (implied) unreasonableness. Very clever. He also seems to be eager to form a bond with Manwe.)

Well, SPM and Manwe can't both be wolves. It'd be way to obvious, and SPM is a more subtle man than that. But SPM irks me in a most sinister way. He's too good at directing his wording to point one way, when he's actually meaning something else. I never trust him, to be sure, but I especially don't like his case against Nogrod. It's not like him to blow something up like that. Not when he's innocent, anyways.

[Garin]

Legate said: or in worse case, he is a villager (who is not worth anything for the community, if I say it very nastily

I'm not comfortable with someone calling ordo villagers worthless. It offends my sense of community. It also could be Legate's way of saying, "I am not an ordinary." Everyone, wants to be viewed as an ordo on day one. Finally, the village still wins if only regular ol' villagers are left standing. On the first day I look for the slightest reasons to vote for a lynch and... I'm just not sure yet.

Also I didn't like Legate saying that I listed Roa as suspicious. I simply said Roa was acting feisty. Hardly a condemnation.

I tend to agree with Lommy and Sauce about Nogrod and Rikae being at the top of the suspicious. I'm not parroting them. I had come to that conclusion over night (Earlier with Nog) and just saw my suspicions mirrored by two veterans of these games. Two crafty veterans mind you.

Regardless, I need to vote as soon as possible. In about five or so minutes.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, just remind everyone, The Might did say that he would have trouble being around toDay, and possibly on Day 2, so he may not make it today. Hopefully he'll make it by the end of Day 2, though, or he'll be removed.

[Mänwe]

I would just like to interject briefly in response to Roa's comments. I am not taking the banter about Hook seriously, I had always meant it as a joke. Though my accusation of him still stands. And I still want to see Nogrod lynched.

'I'll be back'

[Garin]

Nogrod, your level of participation and the riskiness in posting so much has saved you from my vote thus far TODAY.

Rikae made one of those infamous SAFE votes. Didn't start the voting, didn't cast the deciding vote, it was too early to have any real valid suspicions just hunches, it looked like a bandwagon was starting but not quite... ( A good place to hide your vote)

Of course, I could be accused of doing the same. ;)

The only thing keeping me from voting for Mith is that Mith made the first post, I think. Such bravado for a Faithful.

I have got to vote now....
If I voted for Rikae it would be viewed as a safe vote. Just maybe R is acting more like an uninspired ordinary disenchanted by a boring role.

Nogrod would be a more dangerous vote and could get me in trouble. Plus if Nog is not a bad guy we would lose a valuable member of the village. No offense Rikae. However Nog would be one dangerous faithful.

Okay, a few more minutes....

++Nogrod

edit: corrected misspelling

[the guy who be short]

Garin, why exactly did you vote for Nogrod? I just searched through all your posts and found no reasoning behind the vote than "If Nogrod were a faithful, he would be dangerous."

[Mithalwen]

Roa likes lots of talk so she can examine it. There is nothing odd about that per se.

I am going to have a look at the various people who have taken the somewhat flippant sentence of my "stating the obvious" first post so seriously while (wilfully?) ignoring the serious one - since I know I was well intentioned I have to consider that they may not be:

"Given we don't want to force gifteds to out themselves to save their necks or to out those we think may be gifted in order to defend them, we should remember that that gifteds as well as wolves are liable to give out an "odd" vibe and that while in most villages only the wolves know about each other here the hunter and ranger know about each other. But if anyone has a watertight method for distinguishing gifted odd vibe from wolvish odd vibe please share!"

With nothing to comment on I just wanted to remind the village of the possible dynamics. I can't be certain whether someone seems odd becasue they are a wolf trying to fly under the radar or, say, a ranger who is trying to second guess the wolves as well as catch them but if someone seems "odd" then I do think it is worth reviewing them with all possibilities in mind before you start a bandwaggon. I am not saying don't go after those who you find suspicious.

I hope that is clear...

And if rhetorical means what I think it means - ie not expecting an answer - yes it was.......

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I would like to second TGWBS. . . Garin's latest post was one big contradiction, atleast the way I read it.

Nogrod, your level of participation and the riskiness in posting so much has saved you from my vote thus far TODAYeven though there is a "thus far" in there, I still get the imprssion that Garin is going to stay away from Nogrod, but then:

Nogrod would be a more dangerous vote and could get me in trouble. Plus if Nog is not a bad guy we would lose a valuable member of the village. No offense Rikae. However Nog would be one dangerous faithful.

Okay, a few more minutes....

++Nogrod
It does not make sence. . .from what I read, Garin does not vote Rikae because it would be a safe vote.

So he votes Nogrod simply because he could be a dangouress opponent and but he also find that this could be dangouress for him.

The only thing I can conclude is that Garin is afraid to vote any of them and then votes for the one he fear the most.

I might vote Garin because of this post. . .it is weird on so many levels.

[Garin]

To The Guy Who Be Shot: (I still love that old typo)

This is one quote from an earlier post of mine:

I already alluded to the fact that Nogrod was more hesitant to lynch some more than others did not sit well with me. It just seemed like an odd first day stance to take.

Plus I agreed with some of Sauce's and Thin's speculation. Which could turn out to be a dangerous stance in itself.

The vote was not an easy one and doesn't sit too well right now. That's why I still don't appreciate Rikae's quick vote.

PLUS, the Nog vote puts me in the Manwe camp. I'm not comfortable there. Manwe's desperation and revenge complex makes me uneasy.

I really don't have much time right now. Maybe I'll retract and re-vote before I head to work. Maybe not.

Also, everyone seems to trust Legate right now. Call me a worthless villager but...

[Roa_Aoife]

I think Garin just reasoned his vote for Nogrod as being the least suspicious vote for him to make. He doesn't vote for Rikae because it could look "safe" and thus suspicious, so instead he votes Nogrod, because it's "riskier" and thus makes Garin look innocent.

This is odd, because Nogrod is actually the safer vote because of all the (baseless, in my opinion) suspicion against him right now.

EDIT: crossed with Garin.... I'm not sure I'm buying that.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

maybe you are right Roa, but I am far from convinced. . .

It could be that I just don't like the whole thing about the risk level dictating who you vote for.

I for one will not decide who to vote for based on that.

[Garin]

I just like to live dangerously I guess. This is pretty much standard for me. Vote for me if you like although I assure you it would be futile. Unless you are a faithful.

When I started my post, I had decided NOT to vote for Nogrod. Then I ended up going against my instinct at the end.

I am confused and really distracted by the clock right now because I really need to go right now and won't monitor the game the rest of the day.

--Nogrod
++Rikae

Because you shouldn't take votes lightly.

EDIT: LAST POST TODAY. GOOD LUCK

[Roa_Aoife]

Rune, I'm not sure we understand each other. I'm not trying to exonerate Garin by any means. I was just writing what I think his post meant, as there seems to be confusion.

Garin seems... well, alarming right now. I hesitate becaue I remember from before Garin left us, and he does have a 100% lynch rate, as well as a 100% ordinary villager rate.....

Still, if your style of play gets you lynched, it's time to get a new style of play. I was all set to vote for SPM, but now I'm not so sure.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

I really have no idea! I'm awful at reading into what people say and more often than not, I don't get the wrong end of the stick, I get a whole different stick from a different tree. It's not even the same kind of wood!

Ahem. But enough of this silliness. I seriously have no idea, but I am being led to Manwe because he made fun of me ( :p ) and also because he was being, if not tactless, then suspicious. I won't vote for him now because I'll probably get another idea soon enough.
Garin has had some interesting things to say. Voting for Nogrod out of the blue and then changing when challenged seems... if not odd then... erm... not... so... odd?

Also, everyone seems to trust Legate right now.

Well, he's made some good points so far but that by no means he's innocent. But, I say he's innocent until proven guilty as are all ye here. But then again, isn't the basis of this game 'trust no-one'? Sorry to break the 4th wall.

[Nogrod]

I have been thinking about Mr. Spam and the more I do it the more confused I get.

It looks like he is grasping at every straw he can twist. And it looks pretty odd.

First he goes on saying that myself and Roa are berating the quieter ones when all I had said about the issue is practically this here:
#19Speak up people, otherwise we can't nail the baddies... and if it becomes to that, I will be the first to vote for those who do not talk without an acceptable explanation.When he comes back 12 hours later he sticks with his original and obviously faulty idea that:
#58While I am keen for people to speak as much as possible, I am content to give them more than a few hours to do so. You, on the other hand, appeared to be rather cheesed off that most of the village had not spoken in the early hours.
Then he goes on adding that remarkable suspicion that Kath and I are up to no good as we had voiced some optimism because of the basic setting of the game.
It’s possible that one or both may be trying to lull us into a false sense of security.I mean what is this? How does this relate to anything? How do people act in a state of "false security" and what follows from that? Sorry but I just don't get this. If on the other hand SPaM is only trying to come up with anything someone might bite, then it would be more understandable.

Anyhow he then makes the next points
What does concern me, however, is that there appear to have been a number who have championed him (Mänwe) as a primary candidate for lynching, and I do wonder whether this might have resulted from a perception by one or more of the Faithful that his style might make him a possible Day 1 lynch.
---------------
I wonder whether he (Glirdy) too may have been targeted as a potential easy Day 1 lynch.So long as the lynch is not bent towards one of them it's pretty much the same to the were-faithfuls who is lynched. Why risk making an open campaign? But only if there is something like a big fish to be lynched.

And then there was this stuff about me targeting Glirdy especially which I think I already showed was nonsense.

So what to make of this? Is he just in a hurry and careless and just forgets what has actually been said? But he manages to remember things wrongly always towards the same direction...

If there ever was anyone trying to frame someone else, this might meet the criteria?

EDIT: X'd with a host of posts.

[The Saucepan Man]

3rd post - Thinks it's odd that Nogrod and Roa are "berating" the quiet.

(Here he clearly takes things out of proportion. Niether Nogrod nor myself "berated" anyone. We said the exact same thing that he said- talking good, quiet bad)OK. For the second time today, I was not “taking things out of proportion” when I made this comment. I was merely noting that it seemed rather odd to be criticising people for not having posted yet when we were only just over three hours into the game (and in the middle of the night, for some people). The points that I had in mind in particular in making this statement were the following:

There's always something to comment on. So get to commenting people.

Seriously, it's Day 1, everyone's alive, where are they?

It's almost downright insulting that I'm the number one poster at this point with just a few posts. :)

Speak up people, otherwise we can't nail the baddies... and if it becomes to that, I will be the first to vote for those who do not talk without an acceptable explanation.I would probably have thought little more of it, but for the reaction my comment seems to have garnered, which is where the disproportionate reaction lies, to my mind.

I never "jumped on" Glirdan. I was using him as an example of what not to do.I never said that you did. Indeed, I don’t think that I accused anyone of “jumping” on Glirdan. Nogrod’s early statements concerning Glirdan’s (only) post did, however, arouse my suspicions. He repeated them above, but I shall set them out here for ease of reference:

Glirdy looks somewhat normal but there is a feeling I get from his post... I don't know what. I know I myself disagree with voting the most "usual suspects" as it tends to turn bad for us, but still I can't help feeling that from those already posted I would say he's the most suspicious one. But that's a little to say and calls for reconsideration after some more posting from you all...

Glirdy seems to be too detached for a villager. Just casually making himself present but in an alienated way. It sounds bad to be sure.

Hope you have more to say later on Glirdy! I know it's early, but there are things to be observed other than "substance" also early in the game, like attitudes behind the words... the problem is that an unenchanted villager might go for it as you do.Glirdan’s first post is nothing more than an “I’m here, but have nothing much to say”. Now, while this sort of post does annoy me, I am not inclined to view it as sinister, taken alone. Nogrod, however, referred to him as “the most suspicious one” (at that, admittedly early, stage) and categorised it as “bad to be sure”. Yes, he said he wanted to hear more from Glirdy. But, if Glirdan was identified as a possible Day 1 target by the Faithfuls, then this was an appropriate time, from their perspective, to start sowing the seeds of doubt in him.

But SPM irks me in a most sinister way. He's too good at directing his wording to point one way, when he's actually meaning something else. I never trust him, to be sure, but I especially don't like his case against Nogrod.Trust is a difficult thing to come by in this game, so I would not expect you to trust me. But, I should be grateful if you would explain your reasoning further. I have said nothing other than that which I intended to say, and mean. My “case” against Nogrod, which actually amounts to finding him one of the two most suspicious villagers at this stage, is based upon the various points identified in my previous post which, while seemingly innocuous when taken individually, are sufficient to arouse my suspicions when taken together.

I hope that clarifies.

Your “case” against Manwe, already an early contender for possible lynching, in turn troubles me, Roa. However, I still find Rikae, with her hasty vote for him, the most suspicious among those agitating against him, so my main suspicions remain with her and Nogrod. And I cannot believe that both you and Nogrod are Faithfuls. Melkor help us if you are.

I am not sure whether I will be around for much longer, so must vote soon. I will review to see whether there are any other points worth considering before doing so.

[Durelin]

Typically, the two "loudest" people in the village, namely Nogrod and SPaM are getting some serious looking at. (And are going at each other. Ah, if Boro was in the mix there'd be five pages already.) I don't like this "lynch them, because if they are a Faithful, they're going to be dangerous. Well, if they aren't, could they not be "dangerous" to the Faithful in turn?

I'm not saying ignore them - that would be purely foolish - but we've been here before, people. Day 1 or 2, and we're already thinking "agh, so and so is here and alive?!" People say SPM is grasping, people say Nogrod is...wait, what exactly is everyone's point? That he's being accusatory? Well, what else can ya do? Any general theories are pretty much a waste of time. It's all about reactions.

And I find Manwe's reaction rather interesting. He still doesn't feel right to me, but I think a Faithful would be a little more honey-tongued than he is.

Rikae's jumping in and voting doesn't really make me suspicious of her, but the fact that she chose Manwe in succession with my vote, to bring him ahead in votes already is a little odd. It might seem crazy to be suspicious of people who agree with you, but...well, maybe you have a point there... :p

Garin - I apologize. I wasn't sure whether you had played before or not, but even if you had, I still thought a number of people in this game probably have never played with you before (including myself).

But now I find you pretty darn odd looking. You would have seemed more innocent to me had you stuck with your Nogrod vote, but the way you back off as if to avoid confrontation, and go with someone who's been remarked on quite a bit (and for the nice, simple reasoning of a quick vote)...looks like your trying to find an easy way out.

Well, really all I know is that it's quite funny that Kath seems pleased that I got down to business in my very first post, while Lommy finds it suspicious. You can't win. :D

[Brinniel]

My, my...

I certainly wish I had more time to mull over this, but I'm afraid I must leave shortly, therfore I must cast my vote now. I admit, I've had a name in mind for the last hour, yet I do find Garin's recent behaviour rather odd...to suddenly change votes when under pressure. I won't deny, for a moment I reconsidered my selection.

Yet, I do not change my mind so quickly and must go with my first instinct. She may end up being the popular choice, but I don't really care because I'm just going with my gut on this one. She only posted once, and within that post, made a hasty vote with little reason to back it up...so that is why I must vote for:

++Rikae

This will most likely be my last post for the first day, so I shall take my leave...

EDIT: X-ed with SpM and Durelin...

[Nogrod]

Okay... That was a nice episode!

I just can't find sense in what Garin just did, be he an innocent or a werecreature. It looks quite incomprehensible whatever way I try to look at it.

If he is a were-faithful he must be the jumpiest one I've ever seen... If he is an innocent he is the most confused. And still earlier in the day he seemed to be perfectly sensible.

Why did he wish to jump on me out of the blue as he clearly had no points against me? And why did he have to cover it up to that confusing theorizing? Well, there was already Mänwe's vote and SPaM's twisted interpretations. Was he hoping to put the ball rolling but when confronted withdrew because he realised how bad he would look toMorrow if I would have been lynched? A werecreature might be that jumpy. At least as he seemed to have been in a hurry (RL) and had to make a rushed decision...

I need to think again.

EDIT: X'd from SPaM on...

[Mithalwen]

I remember Garin being most perplexing the last time we played ...nothing has changed... that was very peculiar ....

[Roa_Aoife]

OK. For the second time today, I was not “taking things out of proportion” when I made this comment. I was merely noting that it seemed rather odd to be criticising people for not having posted yet when we were only just over three hours into the game (and in the middle of the night, for some people). The points that I had in mind in particular in making this statement were the following.

You had the unfortunate responsibility of being the Mirth Mod when the ugly incident went down about playing styles, and niceness, and respect, etc, so you know how Nogrod and I are when we are "berating" anyone. Not only that, but you had time to comment on these before you did so, and yet you waited until Manwe made his case. Convenient, because if Nogrod is lynched and found innocent, the first perspon everyone will look to is Manwe, not you.

I never said that you did. Indeed, I don’t think that I accused anyone of “jumping” on Glirdan. Nogrod’s early statements concerning Glirdan’s (only) post did, however, arouse my suspicions. He repeated them above, but I shall set them out here for ease of reference:

I was responding to Manwe when I said that. You know as well as I do that Nogrod's "case" (if it cam be called that) against Glirdan is standard for early in the Day, not having much to go on, and throwing things out there to be discussed. In fact, Manwe did the very same thing, albeit in a far bolder and tactless manner. You find those who jumped on Manwe for such behavior suspicious. Is it so surprising that I do the same?

Glirdan’s first post is nothing more than an “I’m here, but have nothing much to say”. Now, while this sort of post does annoy me, I am not inclined to view it as sinister, taken alone. Nogrod, however, referred to him as “the most suspicious one” (at that, admittedly early, stage) and categorised it as “bad to be sure”. Yes, he said he wanted to hear more from Glirdy. But, if Glirdan was identified as a possible Day 1 target by the Faithfuls, then this was an appropriate time, from their perspective, to start sowing the seeds of doubt in him. (Emphais mine)

That's a big IF. Yes, early targeting is a tactic, but in order to see Nogrod's posts as such, you'd have to pre-assume him guilty. If he's innocent, it makes sense as an attempt to look at what was available and make a statement about it.

Trust is a difficult thing to come by in this game, so I would not expect you to trust me. But, I should be grateful if you would explain your reasoning further. I have said nothing other than that which I intended to say, and mean. My “case” against Nogrod, which actually amounts to finding him one of the two most suspicious villagers at this stage, is based upon the various points identified in my previous post which, while seemingly innocuous when taken individually, are sufficient to arouse my suspicions when taken together.

Of course you say what you intend- you're subtle and clever with words. (Lawyer :P ) That's why I look for subtleties (such as making Nogrod seem unreasonable, or as though he is behaving in a manner not typical to him.)

I hope that clarifies.

It does, but not what you intended to clarify.

Your “case” against Manwe, already an early contender for possible lynching, in turn troubles me, Roa.

No explanation as to why? Such a shame, since expect the same from evryone else. (Except Manwe, whose case you've latched onto and are attempting to bolster.)

However, I still find Rikae, with her hasty vote for him, the most suspicious among those agitating against him, so my main suspicions remain with her and Nogrod. And I cannot believe that both you and Nogrod are Faithfuls. Melkor help us if you are.

How convenient that you have a fall back lynchee. This way you can back out and vote for either of them to avoid the suspicion of lynching an innocent.

EDIT: X'd with everyone since SPM's last post.

[Nogrod]

I'm a bit troubled by SPaM. But probably not enough to vote for him toDay. He would make a fine were-faithful and a darn good cobbler (I remember that one still... :) ) but lynching him with no better points than what I have now I find a bit too risky. If he's innocent he surely is an asset to us all.

Garin is another one I suspect somewhat. But there's something rotten in that whole affair I just can't pin down.

Rikae's vote-post did raise my eyebrows too and I would be very glad to hear something from her before the Day ends.

But as SPaM reminded me about my post last night (RL) I might also go for someone who has not contributed as the time comes. A contributing villager I think is much more fun to play with than a non-poster.

Happily there's time still.

[Kitanna]

I've only had a chance to skim and so far the thing that has really caught my attention is Rikae's vote. I'm going to read through the posts I've missed and I will hopefully get through them all before I have to return to class.

[Rikae]

Well, I've been sleeping - and then I've been in school. What can I say? I voted early because (as I said on the admin thread before the game started, I believe), I wasn't sure if I would make it back in time to vote again, plus we have retractable votes. Manwe looked the most suspicious at that point.

In regard to the rest of the day's posts, I have just one thing I'd like to mention:
I think I now understand how important is that all people post, because otherwise there is nothing to learn. And who sits and says nothing, is likely a wolf (err, Faithful) - or in worse case, he is a villager (who is not worth anything for the community, if I say it very nastily). No, Legate. In the worst case, he is a gifted. Surely you know that...

I really don't have anything else to say at the moment, although I will be around, and may well change my vote - although it doesn't look as if it will matter. Manwe, as I said, seemed like the only lead at the time, but that means little, so early. In fact, it does seem that the most suspicious person on day one usually turns out to be innocent. I'm watching everyone closely... but I think I'll avoid naming other suspects just yet. As someone once said I'll wait for them to incriminate themselves further... :D

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Hmmm I am at loss about what to do. . .

so far my thoughts are mostly directed at 5 people

Garin - Goes with out saying. . .it was very odd and I cannot figure out what that means.
Mänwe - Had some weird reasoning going or at least was just hard to understand. . .
Brinniel - Her reaction to Hookbill was quite odd
Legate - Legate's involvment in the Hookbill affair seemed somewhat fake. . .like he was trying very hard to become some sort of mediator
Holby - As I said before her quietness revoked bad memories, but I am feeling more easy about her now.

I will probably vote for one of these soon

[the guy who be short]

What can I say? I voted early because (as I said on the admin thread before the game started, I believe), I wasn't sure if I would make it back in time to vote againI could not find this on the admin thread.

As it is, neither Rikae nor Mithalwen has convinced me of their innocence. The evidence against them seems greater than the evidence pointing to their innocence.

However, Garin is the person who stands out most today after his voting. What on Arda was that? First he voted with no justification, then he backed down under pressure. If he is not a Faithful, he must be Tar-Miriel (after a quick sex-change, of course). The sooner we rid ourselves of him the better.

++GARIN

This is my last post today. Farewell.

[Roa_Aoife]

I was hoping to hang around till the end, but I have to be leaving.

So far, my top suspects are Garin and SPM. Garin, for that weird display before he left, and SPM for everything I've alread stated. (Because, Annatar knows Nogrod's never acted like that before. Ever. Nope. Totally anti-Nogrod. [And yes, that was sarcasm.]

Tempting as it is to vote Garin, I'm going to let him slide on the possibility that he may have been rushed. For now. That doesn't mean that I won't be looking at him later.


++SPM

Hopefully I'll see you on the Morrow.

[Rikae]

I could not find this on the admin thread.
I went back and looked and you're right - I said "Tuesday and Thursday".
Mondays vary - believe me or not, but I couldn't be sure if I'd get a chance to vote; I suppose I should have said so.

[Kitanna]

Looking at Rikae's vote and reason for voting for Manwe, I can see her logic. The thing that gets me is how close her vote is to Durelin's vote for Manwe. I'm not sure what to think of how Rikae voted. I hope she comes on before Day ends, though it seems unlikely since her vote was cast so early.

I'm glad to see Manwe addressed my questions and concerns and I understand his reasoning behind the four he picked in earlier posts (Nogrod, Roa, SpM, and myself). I feel somewhat better about Manwe when he's not dancing around a topic and avoiding answering questions.

I find this rather interesting, Glirdan's first post seemed very Glirdan to me. It was short and was of no use to anyone, but Nogrod jumped on it as alienated and distant from the village, sort of a forced response. Yet Gil-Galad's first post was much the same as Glirdan's, unhelpful and short, yet no one jumped on him as Glirdan was jumped on.

I'm wondering about this talk of Manwe being, ruthless (started by Legate I believe). I'm not sure if "harsh" is how I'd label him.

But what raises my eyebrow more is Garin's vote for Nogrod. Then a few posts later he switches to Rikae. First he voted for someone who was considered suspcious, but had not yet gained any votes, then he switches to someone who already has a vote and votes for her in a "safe vote" way. A safe vote being what he criticized her for in the first place.

Argh, I must run off to class and need to vote now. While Rikae's vote worries me (mainly due to the closeness of it to Durelin's) I am more uncomfortable with Garin and his vote.

++ Garin

His vote for Nogrod seemed odd. He had a case going against Rikae, but decided not to vote for her because it could be viewed as a safe vote. I feel that the vote for Nogrod could be seen as an equally safe vote. However a few posts later he changes his mind and switches the vote to Rikae. I'm confused by his actions and am somewhat alarmed by them.

Edit: cross-posted with Rikae, TGWBS, Rune, and Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

Durlein -> Manwe
Rikae -> Manwe
Manwe -> Nogrod
Thin -> Rikae
Garin -> Nogrod
Garin -> (-Nogord) Rikae
Briniel -> Rikae
TGWBS -> Garin
Roa -> SPM
Kitanna -> Garin

Rikae 3, Manwe 2, Garin 2, SPM 1, Nogrod 1

Left to vote:

Gil-Galad
Glirdan
Holbytlass
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Saucepan Man

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am not sure I will have a chance to check again before deadline so I have to cast my vote now. . .I would like to vote Legate, more or less on a gut feeling, but I do not want to spread the vote more around so I will have to go for Garin, I think him more likely to be wolf than Mänwe.

++Garin

[The Saucepan Man]

You had the unfortunate responsibility of being the Mirth Mod when the ugly incident went down about playing styles, and niceness, and respect, etc, so you know how Nogrod and I are when we are "berating" anyone.By "berating", I did not mean to imply that either you or Nogrod where being offensive in the terms of the incident you refer to, and I apologise if it came across that way. My intention was merely to note as interesting (and, potentially, a relevant consideration) your seeming annoyance that so few were posting at that early stage.

I was responding to Manwe when I said that.

As to my accusers, (Manwe and SPM, and anyone else who I missed).

I never "jumped on" Glirdan.I understood from the latter that you were also responding to me.

That's a big IF.Of course it is. But I was considering it in the context of the other points that I have raised. The point has been made that there is generally very little to go on on Day 1. I have been doing no more than outlining the points that I have found suspicious today. Of course I cannot be sure that my suspicions are well-founded. No one can (with one possible exception).

No explanation as to why?For the same reason that I regard the others who have been busy making cases against Manwe as suspicious. He presented himself as an easy target in the opening stages. He may well be a Faithful, or a Cobbler, for all I know. But I don't get that impression from what he has posted so far.

It does, but not what you intended to clarify.You seem to have made your mind up. There is little more that I can add to what I have said already.

I'm a bit troubled by SPaM. But probably not enough to vote for him toDay. He would make a fine were-faithful and a darn good cobbler (I remember that one still... ) but lynching him with no better points than what I have now I find a bit too risky. If he's innocent he surely is an asset to us all.I could well say the same about you. But, then again, the point equally applies to Rikae, my other main suspect today.

As for others who are bubbling in my suspicions:

Garin: It practically goes without saying that his behaviour over the Nogrod/Rikae vote was odd. But then, as Mith has noted, Garin is a specialist at looking guilty when he's innocent. :rolleyes: :D

Holby: Posting enough to be noticed, but saying very little. It's normal for her to be relatively quiet, but she's deadly with it when she's a Wolf (or, in current terminology, a Faithful). I'm keeping an eye on her.

Brinniel/Hookbill: That little exchange was interesting, but I'm prepared to put it down to a reaction to misunderstood banter - for now.

Mithalwen: For reasons earlier noted, although I am inclined to take her explanation at face value for the time being.

Still, Nogrod and Rikae remain foremost in my suspicions. It's a difficult one, since both would be a great loss, if innocent (or should I say, corrupt ;) ). But Rikae's seeming enthusiasm for promoting the (then) gathering Manwe bandwaggon looks the more suspicious to me. And I find the explanation unconvincing. There was a large part of the Day to go when she voted.

++RIKAE

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Aaahh! I really don't want to vote because I have no idea who to vote for. :(
But since time is running out I'll have to make a decision...

Garin's actions were odd, yes, but for now I shall put it down to either sloppy thinking or... I don't know... Gnomes. I can't vote for him now because there really isn't enough evidence to support a lynching. I think that whoever I vote for will probably be wrong so I'll have to go with my first instincts.

Manwe acted rather oddly and I must say relatively weirdly. I don't know the fellow well enough to gage weather or not it is his usual style or not or weather I am basing it all on because he said I was shifty... but I really do not have a theory at the moment so...

++ Manwe

Sorry, Manwe, I'm really stuck for ideas. If you get lynched and I'm wrong... I'll give you a pot 'o golds. :(

[Mithalwen]

I must register disagreement with some of this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=510902&postcount=13) post of Roa's.

Wolves will usually refrain from killing an ordinary innocent who is garnering suspicion since it indeed shields them and they aren't going to waste a night kill on someone who they have a chance of getting lynched. However I would be astonished is wolves let anyone they suspected of being a gifted survive - unless it was the Hunter.



Well someone has to look at Roa.... :p

[Rikae]

I agree with Mith; Roa's comment looks either poorly thought out or deliberately misleading. Since we're talking about Roa, we can obviously leave out the first option...

[Nogrod]

One thing that kind of bothers me - I tend to get this nagging feeling everytime the Day starts to draw near to an end - that maybe the werecreatures play exactly the way I think they should play if they were to win nicely. I mean being non-confrontational and relaxed, out of everyone's minds and eyes, far away from the center of discussion where the innocents bite each other.

If I ask this question from myself I must say that quite many of us do qualify. It is quite funny that although we all know this we still go with those who arouse the most discussion.

It's probably a bit too late to turn the pile upside down and start looking at it anew. Although with nine votes left (+retrackies) everything is open in principle.

[Mithalwen]

I wish Lalaith had posted more - her single post has made me uneasy because I am not sure she would misconstrue it accidentally.

Manwe - well it can be dangerous to give people the benefit of the doubt but he just seems new to me..... but of course he might also be a new wolf...

Rikae dear ...... I have to go and see why everyone else finds you suspicious - I will be very careful before I give you the benefit of the doubt again... :p

A first day vote for the Pan Man would be traditional but this squabbling between him and Roa is puzzling. But if I were going to choose the two players most likely to argue the toss.....(well Nog would also be a challenger )but....

This is hard. Everyone apart from the Might who seems to have withdrawn definitely has posted but not enough to fully get a handle on.

This village is much quieter than I expected.

[Holbytlass]

++Garin

[Lalaith]

I'm back. Things aren't quite as bad as I thought (I was fully expecting 5-6 pages a la duelling wizards) but still there's a lot of catching up to do.
I have no idea at this stage who is and isn't a Faithful. But I've got a hunch about Tar-Cobbler.
I like not this:
Although quite frankly I'm not sure who we're to pray to.

This may of course be a passing comment, but really, those of us who are true Numenoreans are quite sure who to pray to - the great Annatar. Could this be a leetle smokesignal to those wretched werefaithfuls?
So, with so little to go on, I will cast a vote 'gainst heresy,

++HOLBYTLASS


Oh and two more thoughts:
All these quarrels and squabbles. There are those who like to pass the first day or so in this fashion and so be it, life's rich tapestry, blah blah. Nothing wrong with that. But what I don't like is rows that appear from nowhere and then miraculously blow over with no trace. Tis a wolvish trick, I think.
I also agree with Garin, the wolves, being four, may well be preparing an early sacrifice.

[Durelin]

I might let my vote stand where it is, as though I find Rikae and Garin to be acting oddly, I don't feel like I have enough to go on them. Well, not that I really have enough to go on with Manwe, either. I know a lot of people have been overlooked by all of us, but especially when you have this many people in a village, if you try and look at everyone you'll just confuse yourself! Or, I will. If anyone thinks they can do it, please go right ahead.

Related to that note, I do agree with you, Mith, about Roa. She's loud and seems dying to lynch SPaM, but she hasn't gotten much notice. She calls him grasping, but I think surely the same could be said of her. We're all grasping for something, because someone's getting lynched, and we're trying our darnedest to get a baddie! And considering it's Day 1, there's not much to grab on to.

But as I said, Day 1, 21? villagers...insane.

Sorry, TGWBS, I totally missed this from earlier:

Why were you worried by Glirdan not saying much, but not Kath?

Only because he was rather hypocritical. Kath made no remark about how more people should be talking, while Glirdan said "ooo, no posting going on" and "I hope there's more posting when I return" but did nothing about that. Perhaps he was not as negative about it as I likely read into his post, but...it just stood out to me more than Kath's post did. And since then, she has at least contributed some. Though, now that I think on it...I recall her posting and making remarks, but nothing really stands out to me. Makes we wonder if she's trying to maintain a helpful presence while not really making any points and/or accusations, to try and remain safe. I may be remembering completely wrong...I need to go through her posts again...

Hookbill brings up an interesting point about Manwe here that I missed:

I am glad you see sense and agree with me. Has he been in your mind of late?

Now, the main reason I've refrained from joining these games is because I'm not too good a judge of character and I tend not to read into what people say... but it seems to me that you are hinting at Old Saucepan 'O as being a what do you call it... seer or whatever. Surely suggesting it would put him in danger and we would want to keep him in case he proves helpful, and shouting, "I say! I think he's the seer" will surely either lead the wolves / Were Faithfuls onto him. So... bad form old chap...

Bad form indeed. Makes me think he might be the Cobbler, rather than a Were-Faithful.

And I still want to see Nogrod lynched.

I've always disliked those sorts of remarks. People are deemed suspicious often by their "waffling" or by seeming to be uncertain, but certainty, feigned or unfeigned, bothers me. So Roa's posts have been bothering me, but I believe that to be her style. Still, style or not, I will not dismiss it.

Argh, but Nogrod brings up a good point - one I quite agree with, and I believe touched on earlier. We always go after the same people, the ones that are perhaps "easy targets." I'm sure part of it is that we all (well, most of us) want to survive, at least for a few Days. But does that mean the "easy targets" necessarily aren't baddies? I tend to dismiss bold people as likely innocents, and I feel like that's a bad habit, though going after only the bold ones is one, too.

Ah, Middle Road, where have you gone? Oh, yeah...this is WW.

Nogrod - You suggested the possibility of looking at things anew. Any new thoughts?

Edit: Crossed with Holby, Lalaith

[Nogrod]

A few comments on some people I haven't yet have time to look at closer...

I'm a bit puzzled by the way Roa has played toDay. I mean she seems to defend me in every corner. That makes one uneasy. Or maybe she's using me just as her hobby-horse to go after Spm? Anyhow that I need to think toMorrow if I'm still around.

Another one who puzzles me a bit is tgwbs as I think I have agreed with almost everything he's said toDay. That also makes me worried as I see that through agreement I'm getting to trust him.

Kath I'm afraid as I always seem to be. She has posted little hanging under every radar just to possibly sting when the time is ripe. She knows how to do that.

------

And an update on voting:
Durelin -> Manwe
Rikae -> Manwe (Mänwe2)
Manwe -> Nogrod (Mänwe2, Nogrod1)
Thinlomien -> Rikae (Mänwe2, Nogrod1, Rikae1)
Garin - > Nogrod (Mänwe2, Nogrod2, Rikae1)
Garin - - Nogrod (Mänwe2, Nogrod1, Rikae1)
Garin - > Rikae (Mänwe2, Nogrod1, Rikae2)
Brinniel - > Rikae (Mänwe2, Nogrod1, Rikae3)
Tgwbs - > Garin (Mänwe2, Nogrod1, Rikae3, Garin1)
Roa - > Spm (Mänwe2, Nogrod1, Rikae3, Garin1, Spm1)
Kitanna - > Garin (Mänwe2, Nogrod1, Rikae3, Garin2, Spm1)
Rune - > Garin (Mänwe2, Nogrod1, Rikae3, Garin3, Spm1)
Spm - > Rikae (Mänwe2, Nogrod1, Rikae4, Garin3, Spm1)
Hookbill - > Mänwe (Mänwe3, Nogrod1, Rikae4, Garin3, Spm1)
Holby - > Garin (Mänwe3, Nogrod1, Rikae4, Garin4, Spm1)
Lalaith - > Holby (Mänwe3, Nogrod1, Rikae4, Garin4, Spm1, Holby1)

[Rikae]

It's funny how prophetic the first post turned out to be.
Given we don't want to force gifteds to out themselves to save their necks or to out those we think may be gifted in order to defend them, we should remember that that gifteds as well as wolves are liable to give out an "odd" vibeAnd here you are about to lynch your seer.

Sorry if this is premature, but with 20 minutes left I didn't dare wait any longer.

[Durelin]

Oh lord, I knew this was going to be off to a bad start... :( :(

--Manwe

++Garin

[Nogrod]

Rikae I believe would fight back if she'd be a werecreature. So how she is that calm and quiet?
---
Look what I wrote before I saw what Rikae told us just a minute ago! :(

[Mithalwen]

Oh £$%^$$£££ Who best to vote for since the people who I suspect most aren'tthose who others do ..not convinced of Manwe or Garin's guilt but we need our seer ..... arrrgh

[Nogrod]

Okay. From between Garin and Mänwe I'd think Mänwe not being a were-faithful (too reckless for that) but possibly a cobbler. There is something cobbleresque in his one track mind stuff...

Garin is just a mystery to me still. A very-very jumpy wolf or just a plain innocent who always gets lynched? Or now as he finally is a werecreature he's even more jumpy than normally?

Oh my.

[Rikae]

It's not that bad - at least I'm not the ranger!

[Mithalwen]

Rikae was a very bold wolf last time but...... if she is lying she will get found out ere long and if she tells the truth she will be needed...

[Nogrod]

Please Mith, if you have any fresh ideas tell us... although I know the history of last minute "fresh ideas" as they tend to turn out into disasters more often than not if they are taken in at last minutes. :confused:

[Roa_Aoife]

Had a few moments and thought I'd check up on the end of the day.

And here you are about to lynch your seer.

Well, that's great.

I'll solve the dilema for you.

--SPM

++Garin

He's the one tied with Rikae, after all.

[Lalaith]

Ok Rikae, I'll buy what you've said. Now, given you've had a dream already, tell us what you've seen. In your opinion, is it ok to switch to Garin?

[Lalaith]

Actually sorry, arrgh, what was I thinking.

The Ranger will protect you tonight and then the wolves will kill the known innocent. DON'T tell us the known innocent if you have one.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Just to that "Legate is pushing himself in the Hookbill issue" thing, I was merely wanting to comment the few posts which have been before me, between my last post and that one, and it was not supposed to be the main point of my post, the main part of my post was the rest.

Since much has happened here since my last post, and since it is not much time of daylight left, I am not given much time to rething everything properly and less yet to post some more ideas here. The main concern is now to vote, right? Well, I have the same feeling like writing a test at school, that type of test where you have to mark correct answer, and you don't have a clue and must choose. In these cases, although the answer which seems most likely to me might not be correct, I'd rather be mistaken by choosing what seems likely to me than make a stupid mistake by choosing something which even seems less likely to me. Therefore, I stand with my early suspicion, at least I was more sure at that point than I am now.

++Mänwe

[Nogrod]

I think Mänwe might be more a cobbler than Garin a were-faithful. But hard to say...

[Roa_Aoife]

Certainly, Rikae shouldn't reveal anything until Tomorrow.

[Mithalwen]

Lalaith probably would be my choice since I can't decide about Roa and Spm. Usually Lalaith seems fine to me and now she doesn't. Every time I have played with her before seh has either been ordo of gifted. I think I may be playing a Lalith wolf for the first time. But I might be prejudiced.

[Mithalwen]

Quite... unless she has a wolf. We have one known innocent (assuming she is truthful and that is enough for a single ranger) . Assuming we don't manage to lynch the ranger :rolleyes:

[Durelin]

Wow, there were a lot more people around then I thought. I guess I jumped the gun thinking voting Garin was my only option. Argh.

[Mithalwen]

++Lalaith
since Rikae seems safe

[Nogrod]

Okay. If there is someone still thinking I'll leave the door open as I think this more likely a hit to the baddies...

++ Mänwe

EDIT: X'd with Mith... :confused:

[Rikae]

I can tell you this much - I don't know anything for certain about either Manwe or Garin.

[Lalaith]

I'm not at all sure about either Garin or Manwe, I think both too bold for wolvishness. Between the two I'm more inclined to go for Manwe as obviously our seer must be safe.

---HOLBY

+++MANWE

[Macalaure]

Long the Númenoreans debated their next step, even though some still seemed to be too shocked to talk much. It was clear to them that there were Faithfuls among them and therefore one of them had to die. But who should that be?

After much back and forth it was agreed that Garin should be lynched.

“But why me?” Garin asked shocked “I serve the Lord Melkor like the next of us. I cannot believe you doubt my faith and devotedness!”

“Well, we don’t really do that, to be honest,” answered the guy who be short “but your ways of worship seem strange to us, and, frankly, we don’t have anybody better.”

“But can you not see that this is madness!?”

“You see, Garin, it is an evil hour that puts such a choice on us, but we cannot help it.” said Kitanna “Prove your faith in Melkor by accepting your death as a thing inevitable and honourable!”

“What?? No way!”

But more he was not able to say. Silently Holbytlass took up her huge scythe and approached Garin from behind, and in this moment, with one skilled swing, she decapitated him and Garin lay dead at the villager’s feet.

“Search his body!” ordered Durelin, but all they found was a talisman that proved Garin’s belief in Melkor and Annatar, the god who is his prophet. Garin was no Faithful, but one of them.


Crestfallen the Númenoreans left the peak of Meneltarma and went back to their huts as the sun was setting and it was getting dark.

“Now that I get to think about it, couldn’t we have searched Garin before we killed him?” asked Hookbill, the Goomba, as they descended the hill.

“I think the way we handled it is a quite proven method. And if it works, I don’t see any reason to change it at all.” Roa answered composed.

*~*


The Dead:

Macalaure (mod) - brutally killed by Faithfuls in Night One
Garin (ordo) - decapitated with a scythe on Day One


The Living:

Brinniel
Durelin
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
the guy who be short
Holbytlass
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Kitanna
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe
The Might
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Roa_Aoife
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Saucepan Man
Thinlómien


Wolves, send me your kill. Seer, send me your dream. Ranger, send me your protectee. Hunter, send me your list. It would be best if you do so until about one hour before the deadline, so I have time to write the narration.

[Macalaure]

Long Holbytlass lay awake that night. Thoughts kept on surging into her mind. She had killed a person, and not just some misguided and death-deserving Faithful, but one of their kind.

What has she done?

Finally, she got out of her bed and made her way back to the Meneltarma, where her horrid deed took place, and where Garin’s body lay unburied.

*~*

The next morning, the villagers made themselves on their way, too. Both Holbytlass and The Might, but nobody else, were missing, but the two were not to be found in their huts. Then, on the top of the hill, they recovered them. The bodies of Holbytlass and The Might seemed to rest upon the corpse of Garin, but on closer inspection, both were found out to be dead.

“There is a letter!” cried Mithalwen, and then she read it alound:


Dear respectable remaining residents of the Island of Westernesse,

I can no longer live with the guilt I have brought upon me and I will now try to correct my fault. There is only one way in which Garin’s death can be undone, and nothing else is left to do for me in this hour: I will sacrifice my own blood to pray to Melkor and bring Garin back.

Tell Garin I’m sorry for what I have done, and that I now have paid for it.

Your Holbytlass.


But under it, more has been scribbled hastily, and in a different writing:


Didn’t work! Didn’t work! Need more blood! Need more blood!

Yours deceasingly,
The Might


...and splatters of dried blood surrounded it.


“Well, indeed it doesn’t seem to have worked.” observed the Legate of Amon Lanc, examining Garin’s body, which looked as decapitated and as dead as before.

“Of course it didn’t work!” Rikae added resolutely “How do we expect Melkor the Great to have mercy upon us, when there are still Faithfuls among us? Melkor is a god of the strong, mind you! Once the Faithfuls fertilise the ground, the dead who believed in Him will rise again and we all shall be deathless henceforth.

Let us be thankful nobody died by the hand of the Faithfuls this night. But right now, there is work for us to do!”


*~*


The Dead:

Macalaure (mod) - brutally killed by Faithfuls in Night One
Garin (ordo) - decapitated with a scythe on Day One
Holbytlass (ordo) - committed suicide to revive Garin in Night Two
The Might (ordo) - committed suicide to help Holbytlass reviving Garin in Night Two


The Living:

Brinniel
Durelin
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
the guy who be short
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Kitanna
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Roa_Aoife
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Saucepan Man
Thinlómien


Wolves, stop pming. Hunter and cobbler, send me another list. Now let the Daily discussions begin!

[Nogrod]

Well the numbers surely are shrinking with a bit too fast pace but happily there seems to be some good news as well with the Ranger making a great save. And now our Ranger too has a known innocent in her/his pocket and will probably live at least up to toMorrow. So with that save we kind of managed to get a borrowed Seer for one Night! Meaning: in Day3 we should have at least two living known innocents around and possibly the ranger might save it then again (50-50 chance of them being around on Day4 as well)... That would help our task considerably.

Kudos to her/him! And a bow.

I for one am ready to take Rikae now at face value. Lying about giftedness never pays in the long run so long as roles are revealed with death and so her coming up that soon would have been folly if she fakes it = I don't believe she faked it.

I'll see a couple of things now but will then have to go to sleep. Happily toMorrow (RL) I'll be able to flood the thread as my choir rehersals have been cancelled. :p

[Roa_Aoife]

First, some replies that I didn't have time for at the end of yesterday.

Wolves will usually refrain from killing an ordinary innocent who is garnering suspicion since it indeed shields them and they aren't going to waste a night kill on someone who they have a chance of getting lynched. However I would be astonished is wolves let anyone they suspected of being a gifted survive - unless it was the Hunter.

While what you say is true, I believe you completely missed my point. Yes, the wolves will kill anyone they suspect of giftedness. HOWEVER, they can't tell a gifted from a particularly suspicious innocent any better than we can tell a suspiciously acting gifted from a wolf. (And as was demonstrated yesterday, that's very difficult.) THE WOLVES DO NOT KNOW WHO THE GIFTED ARE. (Except when the gifted reveal themselves.) They can't. All they have is a best guess and gamble- is this villager a gifted and thus good for us to kill, or just an ordo we could be using for lynch bait tomorrow? Every suspicious ordo they kill removes one more villager for them to hide behind. Not to mention the trails that more vocal of us tend to leave. (One reason I dislike quietness so much- a quiet ordo leaves no trail when dead.)

Honestly, I don't know why we're even disagreeing over this- it's common sense, and we're both saying the same thing, but from different angles.

I'm a bit puzzled by the way Roa has played toDay. I mean she seems to defend me in every corner. That makes one uneasy. Or maybe she's using me just as her hobby-horse to go after Spm? Anyhow that I need to think toMorrow if I'm still around.

To be honest, it's quite closer to the later. As SPM said himself, the analysis of words is how wolves are caught. When I returned in the second half of the day, I set about summarizing every post that was made, and adding brief thoughts on it. (You saw the results of that in my analysis that I posted yesterday.) Why just three? Those were the top three that caught my interest. (Okay, I analyzed Nogrod out of force of habit.) When I could find nothing against you, (and I can usually find something against anyone) I saw the charges against you as being nothing more than huffing and puffing.

At first I thought Manwe was more suspicious for it- he had no backing, his case was truly coming out of thin air, and he was being pretty dogged about it. He was so desperate for people to stick blame to that he grabbed onto Kitanna, though she had done the opposite of what he accused her of. But then I analyzed SPM. SPM is arguably one of the best players in this game. And yet, here he was, latching onto a newbies baseless case, and even trying to bolster it with carefully worded propaganda. So in a way, I was "using you" to "get" SPM, in the sense that I found his case against you to be the most suspicious thing of the Day, and I am almost thuroughly convinced that he is a Faithful who wanted to look helpful, and latched onto the suspicion of a prominent and dangerous player. At the end, he even backed down and voted for his conveniently placed other "suspect," who was much closer to lynching.

And Oh, look! She the seer! Whoops. Pretty silly of you, SPM.

Too bold for a wolf? Depends on the wolf, and somehow I doubt that SPM could be anything but bold. (He's way too active and influencial.)

And do I believe Nogrod is innocent? Not unless Rikae dreamed of him and says so. I just think the case against him was pure fabrication.


There were three bandwagons yesterday, for Rikae, Garin, and Manwe. I'll be looking at the voters for Rikae first, and then Manwe, but I'd appreciate it if someone else looks at the Garin bandwagon. (I'm in it, afterall.) Or perhaps, multiple people...

Also, Rikae, if you would be so kind as to let us know what you know. Hopefully, you can clear up the messy Manwe question.

[Nogrod]

Sorry people... I was maybe getting a bit too optimistic back there... :(

It just occured to me that the wolves might have been so stupid as not to try and kill someone else safely the last Night but go straightforwards to Rikae (counting she's the Seer) and thence obviously be denied the kill in the first place.

Or is it a most Devillish plan where all this is staged to cover up for a false Seer? But it shouldn't work. It just couldn't. Too risky (even for Roa? :) ) so long as a right Seer still lives and killing her/him soon would be most reckless too - even with four faithfuls around.

So maybe we don't have two known innocents toMorrow. I was just too happy, too early...

EDIT: X'd with Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

Rikae voters in order of vote

Thin - first vote, put Rikae in the running
Garin - second vote, tied Rikae for lead
Briniel - third vote, put Rikae in lead ahead of Manwe
SPM - fourth vote, put Rikae in lead ahead of Garin

Thin Day 1

1st post - Doesn't think Lalaith or Mith is suspicious, points out that the hunter may still kill the seer, thinks the game is equal, finds statement by Nogrod about the wolves having just one kill odd, says she has nothing against Glirdan, banter about Roa and Nogord dynamic, disagrees with SPM about Roa and Nogrod being harsh on the silent, thinks Manwe's weird but has some good points, thinks Rikae's vote on Manwe is weird, thinks Manwe's calmness speaks for his innocense, doesn't have any real suspicions

2nd post - Thinks this is the most paranoid Day 1 ever.

3rd post - thinks that TGWBS idea to look at the quiet ones is good, questions why she is on Holby's list, has to vote early, Votes Rikae, says she's the biggest suspect she has, thinks she jumps on Manwe too early, considers it a fact that there is very little to go on until Day 2, also keeping an eye on Durelin.

While I typically expect more from Thin, she did explain that she would have trouble being present for Day 1. Less "frothy" than usual, but again, she had less time... Honestly, I don't see anything out of place here. I'm starting to get suspicious just because of that. ;) Basically, she offers commentary on evrything that's been an issue up until her arrival, in typical Thin fashion. As for the placement of her vote- Wolves tend for the middle, rather than the begining. She wasn't the first to find Rikae's vote odd, so I don't think she could be painted as the starter.

Briniel Day 1

1st post - Points to Newbieness, says she's been observing for a while, and will try her best, would rather observe Manwe a little before pointing fingers at him, thinks Hookbill is a little nervous about the accusations.

2nd post - doesn't really suspect anyone at this point, still feels hesitant about accusing Manwe

3rd post - wishes she had more time to think about things, had a first thought but is now looking at Garin too, decides to stick with her instinct and Votes Rikae, has to leave.


All Newbies have different ways of starting. Some, like Manwe, are very bold. Some, like Brinniel it would seem, are more thoughtful. I dislike it when newbies point it out, but she only said so once, and it seemed like more of an apology than an attempt for pity. I did find her comment to Hookbill odd, and I wish she had given more reasoning behind her vote for Rikae, but at this moment, I'm not sure she should be lynched for it.

As for the others who voted for Rikae, Garin is dead, and you all know what I think of SPM.

I will say this, though- if not for his vote, Rikae would not have had to reveal. This was after she returned and explained herself, and he was the only one who refused to believe her, and the case against her had almost as little backing as the one against Nogrod. It seems like he picked on her out of all the others who voted for Manwe (including Durelin, who voted first, and clearly had enough time to return, which was something that SPM said against Rikae.)

Back with Manwe voters in a little bit.

[Rikae]

I doubt very highly looking at the people who voted for me will reveal anything useful. As has been pointed out several times (and repeatedly in the last game) gifteds tend to look suspicious. I imagine looking at the Garin voters would be more fruitful...

Oh yes...this is my last day among you. As four of you know already, the ranger protected me last night.

I think I'll leave it at that for now.

[Mänwe]

Oh Roa you are being helpful, showing us newbies how its done, though I prefer a spear to a bow on all accounts far more effective at skewering that fish in the shallows. Still we have but to wait until tomorrow when we may expect to find Rikae's body horribly mutilated.

To coin a cliche phrase, there is something fishy going on here and its not just my cloths. Mhm the blend of fish and lupine musk it cannot be a pleasant combination I am sure.

Neither is this mix of blood and fish, poor Might and Holby.

Though I wonder why you are being so helpful Roa, surely providing such excellent analysis would attract the Faithful's to you like a bee to beautiful flower, unless of course you are safe in the knowledge that they would not attack one of their own kind?

[Nogrod]

Even though I still agree with you Roa on SPaM's suspiciousness yesterDay I've learned to be a bit paranoid with you too... :rolleyes:

Basically I don't think that "out of the thread" speculations are to be encouraged but this one I just couldn't help noticing. You posted two lengthy posts within three minutes interval in the first half an hour of the Day. So you had them prepared in advance I presume? No one can deny that people mighn't use their spare time making posts ready for the next Day already beforehand even if they didn't know whether they would be alive or not on that following Day. But it just bothers me a bit right now. I mean I like to do a lot of work for a game when I have time but not use hours to it beforehand if I wouldn't be certain I will be alive... and we know who the people here are who need not worry about them surviving the Night. :eek:

EDIT: X'd with two last ones

I think I'll leave it at that for now.Your choice. Just do not let us lynch that innocent in the end of the Day...

[Lalaith]

I imagine looking at the Garin voters would be more fruitful...

Just what I was going to suggest. I know some people switched to save Rikae, but even so, there was something not quite right about the Garin bandwaggon.

As for the two departures. I was so sure Holby was fishy, and now it seems she was an ord all along. No werefaithful slayings though.
Was this due to a thwarted attempt by the weres to kill the seer, or did the Mod take pity on us and decide the death by departure of two ords was enough to be getting on with?

[Roa_Aoife]

Manwe voters

Durelin - First vote, put Manwe in the running
Rikae - Second vote, put Manwe in the lead
Hookbill - third vote, had little effect on standings
Legate - fourth, kept Manwe in the running
Nogrod - fifth, tied Manwe with Rikae
Lalaith - sixth, put Manwe in second

Unless someone comes out to contest Rikae's claim, she's a known innocent. And Nogrod I've already analyzed.

Durelin, Day 1

1st post - Says the numbers will make this crazy, thinks it's silly to discuss wolvish behavior, says we need to stir things up a bit more, interested in back and forth between Manwe and SPM, finds Mith strange, thinks her nonchalance is forced, concerned by Glirdan's post, response to Garin

2nd post - thinks Manwe is enganging in "ultimate" Day 1 nonsense, says she has nothing better to go on, votes Manwe, says his "fisherman's wisdom is getting to her/him (?), hopes to be back before deadline, but is uncertain.

(Weak reasoning, but given the ammount of evidence available, and the time limitations, it's understandable)

3rd post - Says the two loudest people (SPM and Nogrod) are getting the most looking at, doesn't like the reasoning of "if they're Faithful, they'd be dangerous," "We've been here before...", doesn't get the case against Nogrod, finds Manwe's reaction interesting, thinks a Faithful would have been more "honey-tongued", doesn't think the timing of Rikae's vote is odd, but rather that is was for Manwe, thinks Garin is Odd looking

(Durelin sure says a lot in one post. I find her statement that SPM was one of the two most looked at players odd. To my knowledge, I was the only one looking at him, though others had disagreed with him. I don't know that anyone said either was being suspected because they could be dangerous if Baddies.)

4th post - thinks her (?) vote for Manwe might stand, but also thinks Rikae and Garin are acting odd, doesn't have enough to go on, even though she doesn't really have alot for Manwe, either, reminds us that a lot of people aren't being looked at at all, agrees with Mith that Roa hasn't gotten a whole lot of notice, response to TGWBS, says Glirdan worries her because he complained about the lack of posting, but did nothing about it, thinks she needs to look at Kath again, think Hookbill brings up a good point, thinks Manwe may be the cobbler, doesn't like Manwe's comment about wanting Nogrod lynched, also bothered by Roa's certainty about SPM, uncertain about going after bold players or quiet players, asks Nogrod for new thoughts

(In her previous post, she said she was no longer certain about Manwe, and here she admits to having no real case, but she seems very content to let her vote stand. All this post has is a lot of waffling about whether or not it's prudent to attack the loud players or not. The fourth paragrapgh can basically be summed up in "The loudest players could be bold innocents, but they could be bold wolves, too." For all her talking, she comes to no conclusions about anything, except that alot of people are acting strange. )

5th post - changes vote from Manwe to Garin

(A vote to save the seer. I can't fault her for that, unless she's trying to make herself look good.)

6th post - Thinks she may have jumped the gun on her vote for Garin

Some odd things from Durelin's posts. Though she says she dislikes waffling, she does an awful lot of it herself, especially in her third and fourth posts. She admits to having no case againast Manwe, but she does very little to find anything, it seems.


Hookbill next.

[Durelin]

Excellent! Yay Ranger!

After I saw that we were losing two of our ranks, and with our Seer already outed, I must say I was even more pessimistic than usual. This has me a little more hopeful, though. But, with four wolves out there, we've got a lot of work to do.

Oh yes...this is my last day among you. As four of you know already, the ranger protected me last night.

Wait...but...I feel like I'm missing something here. How do you know for certain that the Ranger protected you? It is most likely, because that's playing it safe, but...the Wolves have to be...well, as Nogrod said rather stupid to waste a Night's kill. But, I didn't think anyone was told that they were protected. Then again, I've never been saved. :D

Why would the wolves choose to risk wasting a nice kill? Is it simply stupidity, or were they that desperate to kill Rikae for some reason?

I guess I might be wasting my time, as there's no way to know. I think Rikae might be right about her voters, though. While it is certainly a possibility, I think the majority of us were suspicious of her, myself included. So with what little time I have I'll try and look over Garin's voters, and also look at those who deviated from the bandwagons. On Day 1, innocent lynchings are extremely probable, so I don't see a reason for a Wolf to put him/herself in the middle of a bandwagon on Day 1. Of course, it is possible we got closer to lynching one of them than we think. Possible, though not probable.

Manwe - Roa's excellent analysis is a great help to us! Looking at a person's behavior point-by-point is extremely helpful, and obviously not all of us are so good at such analysis, or have the time to go through everything. If we live in fear of the Faithful, we will surely die. But perhaps your behavior is now somewhat explained - you just want to stay alive? Understandable...but the Faithful will kill us all if we don't actively try to hunt them down.

Edit: Crossed with Nogrod, Lalaith, Roa. All I can say is that I did not say I had no case for Manwe. I just didn't have a lot to go on him. I don't think I was alone in not having a lot to back my vote.

[Macalaure]

...or did the Mod take pity on us and decide the death by departure of two ords was enough to be getting on with?
How should I put it best?


No.

:p

[Roa_Aoife]

Basically I don't think that "out of the thread" speculations are to be encouraged but this one I just couldn't help noticing. You posted two lengthy posts within three minutes interval in the first half an hour of the Day. So you had them prepared in advance I presume? No one can deny that people mighn't use their spare time making posts ready for the next Day already beforehand even if they didn't know whether they would be alive or not on that following Day. But it just bothers me a bit right now. I mean I like to do a lot of work for a game when I have time but not use hours to it beforehand if I wouldn't be certain I will be alive... and we know who the people here are who need not worry about them surviving the Night.

I work on the assumption that it doesn't matter if I die or not- I need to have the work done and ready. You may be bothered if you wake up dead and all that work goes to waste. I'm just not.

Besides, with the exception of the last game, I'm very rarely killed by the wolves until far later in the game. (I draw way to much suspicion during the Day to be wasted as a kill so early in the game.) Besides, as I'm quite vocal in my suspicions, if I'm right and nail a wolf, it's too dangerous to kill me, because it will paint a clear and direct line to the culprit.

Let's not tip-toe around this. I'm an ordo- I have no reason to fear death. Only wolves and gifteds do that.

Back to work.

[Lalaith]

Okay. So let me get this straight. So do we assume, villagers, that the Ranger protected Rikae and the wolves tried to kill her?

I may be missing something, but I think this is odd. Would the wolves not assume that the Ranger *would* protect Rikae - or did they risk a double-bluff?

[Roa_Aoife]

We shouldn't assume anything. Only the wolves and the Ranger know what happened last night, and they're the only ones who need to know. It changes nothing for us toDay, unless the ranger comes forward. And that would be highly unadvisable at this stage. They'd be signing their own death warrant.

[Nogrod]

Okay. About 5½ hours before my wake up call...

Just no new ideas springing up to my mind right now and no time to make any lengthier analysis.

I hope I can join us opening some new ways of looking at this later on the Day as I seem to have at least three wolves out of my grasp, at worst all four of them.

Speak people. :)

[Rikae]

Durelin - Mac told me I was protected by the ranger.

I suppose the faithfuls might have gone for me hoping the ranger, assuming they wouldn't want to waste a kill, protected someone else last night so he/she could protect me tomorrow, when I'd be in greater danger. It had occured to me that the ranger might do that, maybe the faithfuls had the same thought? Good thing he/she didn't decide to!

[Nogrod]

A villager who has been protected successfully will know he has been saved, but not by whom or from whom.Plain and simple. Although we yet have only Rikae's word for it. But as I said earlier, I'm ready to take her word now and concentrate on other issues like finding the faithfuls.

I'll be back for the last 5-6 hours.

EDIT: X'd with Rikae...

[Roa_Aoife]

Hookbill Day 1

1st post - says he left too early, thinks the death was poetic

(What does he mean he left too early? Was he here at the start of the Day and just didn't comment? Why would he do that?)

2nd post - banter with Manwe and SPM, suggests that Manwe is suggesting SPM is the seer, thinks everyone is jumpy on Day 1

(While he seems to suspect Manwe for his rather ambiguous statement to SPM, it seems as though Hookbill is really the one trying to point out the Seer, and the only one making a big deal about it at all is him. Honestly, if you read into that statement, you ought to keep your mouth shut.)

3rd post - More banter

4th post - Thinks Manwe has been ruthless, but is willing to put it down to a newbies over eagerness

5th post - More banter, doesn't suspect anyone

6th post - Still can't figure anything out, does find Manwe suspicious, but now also Garin

7th post - Doesn't want to vote, thinks Garin was being odd, but writes this off as sloppy thinking, says Manwe acted oddly, doesn't have a better theory, Vote Manwe, apologizes

Between the banter and silliness, it was hard to find anything of substabce in Hookbill's posts. I don't know if he's ever played before, but he seems very lost. Or rather, he seems like he's trying to seem like he's very lost. It has a very played up feeling. Also, he apologizes for his vote, and that's always suspicious to me.


Back soon with Legate.

[Durelin]

Thanks, Rikae, Nogrod. I missed that, and I will take Rikae's word for it.

Now I need to run. Have a lot of homework on my plate largely because I've been putting it off. I will try to be back in a few hours or so.

[Roa_Aoife]

Legate, Day 1

1st post - Points out newbieness, took an hour to read through the thread, will have to go soon, doesn't understand dispute between Lal and Mith, thinks gifteds will try to stay hidden, says some people seemed strange, but later realized that this is "normal" for them, says Manwe seems harsh, but doesn't quite suspect him yet, thinks it was nonsense for him to make such a mess, thinks he was accusing out of nothing, will be back later

(Seems fairly reasonable and well thought out. I can't find fault with his/her's (?) reasoning here.)

2nd post - Agrees with Lommy's post, doesn't like Brinniel's and Hookbill's banter, asks them to stop and get to business, thinks SPM and Manwe are assuming too much, understands how important it is for everyone to be active, finds Manwe the most suspicious, finds Nogrod strange, but thinks it may just be normal for him, doesn't suspect Roa at all, doesn't know what Manwe, SPM and Garin are talking about, will try to be back before the end

(I'm starting to think someone else ought to analyze Legate, as I'm feeling a bit too partial. I can't help it! I like the kid! And I agree with everything said! Not surprisingly, I find Legate reasonable.)

3rd post - agrees with Hookbill, thinks Brinniel seemed serious with her responses, feeling paranoid

4th post - quick response to Rune, is unsure, but would rather be mistaken in choosing what feels most correct and be wrong, than make an even bigger mistake by choosing something else, Votes Manwe

Okay, someone else look at Legate. S/he reminds me way too much of me when I first started. I can't find anything wrong with the posts, but I'm really thinking I'm partial here.

[Roa_Aoife]

Lalaith, Day 1

1st post - it's quiet, won't be around again until much later, agrees with mith that we should be careful about lynching gifteds, but not sure what to make about sharing ways to distinguish gifteds from wolves, intrigued by new twists on the roles

2nd post - Has no idea is a faithful, but has an idea for a cobbler, thinks comment made by Holby may be a signal to the Faithfuls, Votes Holby, wonders about the rows that begin and then blow over suddenly, agrees that the wolves may be trying an early sacrifice

(That was... odd. Taking one comment from Holby as evidence enough to lynch her? That seems really strange from Lal, and I'm not sure if she's serious or not. Not having much to go is one thing, but it looks like she's not even trying.)

3rd post - asks Rikae what she dreamed, asks if it's okay to lynch Garin in her stead

4th post - cancels last post, realizes that the wolves would just kill the known innocent instead.

(Okay, rushed thinking, it seems.)

5th post - Isn't convinced of either Garin or Manwe's guilt, wants to protect seer, retracts vote for Holby, votes Manwe

(What? Rikae was already well past safe. Not only that, even if she missed the other votes, Garin would be the logical choice since he was tied with Rikae. This just screams safe vote.)

Lal's looking very odd here. I think I may give her some greater scrutiny through out this Day.

Okay, with that done, I must be off. (I have some chores to do.) I'll be back, hopefully in a few hours.

[Lalaith]

5th post - Isn't convinced of either Garin or Manwe's guilt, wants to protect seer, retracts vote for Holby, votes Manwe (What? Rikae was already well past safe. Not only that, even if she missed the other votes, Garin would be the logical choice since he was tied with Rikae. This just screams safe vote.)

Just caught this before bedtime and thought it deserved picking up on.

Yes, I knew Rikae was almost certainly safe at that point but you never know, hasty last-minute voting by people who don't finish reading a thread, it has happened....so I switched my vote to be sure.
The two alternatives were Garin and Manwe, and I felt Garin was probably innocent - as he indeed proved to be. Of the two, I preferred to see Manwe lynched as I wasn't as sure about him.

But I would like to see the Garin voters analysed. I don't have time to do it myself, unfortunately.

[Mänwe]

I would like to make a small point about Legate's annoyance over the banter. I find it rather odd. Why get annoyed? Banter may cause people to slip up, and the things they say may reveal their mood. Meh, this is a game...albeit involving death.

[Gil-Galad]

I would like to make a small point about Legate's annoyance over the banter. I find it rather odd. Why get annoyed? Banter may cause people to slip up, and the things they say may reveal their mood. Meh, this is a game...albeit involving death.



hmmm... i would have to agree with Manwe there... Legate is now on my list... but at the bottom, but it could be just a character flaw

but for now, my main thoughts are still on Saucepanman, and thus so must my vote be for i may not get another time to say it...

++SaucePanMan

again as usual, apoligies if i have made a mistake

[Durelin]

I need a break from Catullus and his ego, so...I post.

again as usual, apoligies if i have made a mistake

So...you've covered all your bases in one sentence?


I would like to make a small point about Legate's annoyance over the banter. I find it rather odd. Why get annoyed? Banter may cause people to slip up, and the things they say may reveal their mood. Meh, this is a game...albeit involving death.

I agree, it is a game. So maybe fun bantering should be a part of it (and I think it is, whether it "should be" or not. But you question someone's denunciation of bantering, while you have not only denounced analysis but also pretty much deemed it "wolfish."

Thank you for the analyses, Roa. I actually find your analysis of Hookbill most interesting to me because I can't say I've considered him much, unfortunately. He played Day 1 undeniably safe, and asserted mostly typical humour and "banter," keeping his posting light. Without accusations - with evidence backing them or no - or even serious *investigation* of people, there's no lines crossed, no one's offended, no trails. And on Day 1, you can get by with that.

We'll have to see if he continues to try and do so toDay, I suppose.

I'll be back as soon as I can (if I have a brain left after more Latin and some calculus in the mix). The Garin voters need serious looking at, as well as the no voters.

Oh...and anyone want to venture a post-by-post analysis of Roa? ;)

[Roa_Aoife]

Whee! Takin a break!

So... where is everyone? *sigh* Not the quiet thing again....

Please, to everyone, the last thing we need to get into is a debate about what should or shouldn't be part of the game. Banter, role-playing or whatever else, everyone has their own opinions on it. A debate about it will only get ugly, fast, and people's feelings will get hurt, and it will all just be bad. TRUST ME. Save the critiques on how people played until the post-game.

For now, the only banter that bothers me is Hookbill's, and that because it's 90% of his contribution to the discussion from Day 1.

[Roa_Aoife]

Oh...and anyone want to venture a post-by-post analysis of Roa?

Good luck! I'm trying to beat Nogrod in post count this game. ;)


I'm going to start on the other Garin voters, since no one else seems up to the task.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Well, I do not do post-by-post analysis and I am a Garin voter, that might make me baised when doing the analysis.

Anyways I did not spot anything overly suspiciouse when I looked over the posts, I guess I will have to read through them again as having no new to add is normaly not apprichiated.

[Roa_Aoife]

Garin voters

TGWBS - first vote, put Garin in the running
Kitanna - second, put Garin in second
Rune - third, tied Garin with Rikae
Holby - fourth, tied Garin with Rikae
Durelin - fifth, put Garin in lead
Roa - sixth, no real impact on lynch

Holby's dead, and I can't analyze myself. So...

TGWBS, Day 1

1st post - doesn't like Day 1 banter, says innocents tend to get lynched for "spurious" evidence, banter with Kath, points out that suspicion tends to fall on the loud, lists the quiet, questions Nogrod, SPM, and Roa for Glirdan suspicion

2nd post - more banter with Kath, clarifies that the "prophesy" was a joke, and truly suspects for quietness

(For someone who says he doesn't like the banter, he's engaging in it quite a bit.)

3rd post - Accepts SPM's explanation for Glirdan, also retracts question to Roa, wonders why Durelin is worried about Glirdan but not Kath, also asks Nogord why he picked out Glirdan and not Kath, voting record, feelings on villagers: Innocent- Nogrod, SPM; Faithful- Mith, Manwe, Rikae; Slightly suspicious- Glirdan, Gil-galad, The Might; Wants to hear more from mith about gifted question, wants Rikae to explain her vote, wants Gil to explain his hunches

(Seems straight forward, but I wonder why he keeps hinting towards Kath. Also, with the voting record and lists, it feels like he's trying to beef up his post and make it seem more substantial than it really is.)

4th post - Disagrees with Holby, says mith's statement is we have to judge her on since it's all she's said

5th post - Asks Garin why he voted for Nogrod, thinks the only reason is, "If he were faithful, he would be dangerous."

6th post - tells Rikae he couldn't find her notice on the Admin thread, isn't convinced of either Rikae's or Mith's evidence, says Garin stands out the most, says we better get rid of him, Votes Garin, leaves for the Day

(Something about this last post seems... forced somehow. In fact, every post he's made is filled with the air of finality that I just don't like.)

Kitanna next....

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna, Day 1

1st post - most of her thoughts have been stated by others, willing to over look Glirdan's first post if he can come up with some substance later, leaves

2nd post - doesn't understand Manwe's logic, thinks he just randomly grouped three other people with Nogrod, not much explanation for it

3rd post - suggest Manwe alleviates mistrust with some explanation, corrects him about her thoughts on Glirdan

4th post - Has only had the chance to skim, and Rikae's vote is the only thing of interest

(What happened with Manwe? Did she just drop it? Why?)

5th vote - Can see Rikae's logic for voting Manwe, but is concerned about the timing, hopes Rikae will come back, accepts Manwe's response to her questions, feels better about him, says Glirdan seemed normal, but Nogrod jumped on it as alienated from the village, points out that no one mentioned Gil-galad's post, not sure she'd label Manwe as harsh, finds Garin's vote for Nogrod and then switch to Rikae very odd, has to leave for class, Votes Garin, says his vote for Nogrod was just odd.

(This post bothers me. She says she can understand why Rikae voted for Manwe, but she seems content to exonerate him all together. A case of "a row just blowing over," as someone else said. Also, she too accused Nogrod of "jumping on" Glirdan. I'm starting to suspect a triad between SPM, Manwe, and Kitanna. The question is, who's the fourth?)

Next Rune, and then Durelin, and then I'll be leaving for the night (RL), I think.

[Roa_Aoife]

Side note: w00t! Fifth page! :D

[Mänwe]

Durelin I did not specifically say nor was I secretly alluding to analysis being 'wolfish' my intention was only to draw a parallel with what others have said on the 'helpful' issue. That being, the Faithful's may want to appear useful as though they are on the ordo's side. That was my intended meaning. I can see as plain as anyone that analysis is useful. :)

And on my point on banter, well I admit, my motive was partly one of making a point that it should be part of the game. But, have we not seen Legate's 'mood' toward it. Perhaps he is unable to decipher the banter from the real, he is edgy, and finds it hard to interpret...perhaps making his work as a Faithful harder?

Oh and Roa, I think you missed a part of her post where she then states that she understands my logic for those I chose, whether that helps or not I don't know, just thought i'd add it.

Edited with Roa's post.

[Roa_Aoife]

Rune, Day 1

1st post - Says everything thus far Day 1 nonsense that he cannot be bothered to mention, finds Manwe's case odd, says Manwe is focusing on just Nogrod, which is odd, but understands the question Manwe asks, but doesn't understand why there's so little elaboration on the others, says Jobs were accelerators for making people talk

(I dislike his statement that everything before his post was pretty much useless banter. That was hardly the case. Already, a few theories, suspicions, and questions were being discussed. Why would he want to dimiss those? So that he wouldn't have to comment on them? Also, I still don't know what question Manwe was asking Nogrod that was so important.)

2nd post - is confused by a lot of people, says there's alot of jumpiness, and while he would normally analyze this, he's never played with the people who are the jumpiest, is concerned about Holby's post, thinks Hookbill is innocent

(Way to contribute to the "nonsense." Not much here, except a big "I don't know." Again, what happened to Manwe? Have we found a fourth?)

3rd post - Seconds TGWBS, says Garin's post is a contradiction, thinks he might vote Garin for his post

(latching onto the first suspect who presents himself, but Garin was actung very strangely)

4th post - doesn't like risk level dictating who one votes for

5th post - Says his thoughts are now directed at 5 people: Garin, Manwe, Briniel, Legate, and Holby

(Well, that came out of nowhere. I really wish he'd offer more explanation than one line each. It seems like he's forcing this list to seem less single minded.)

6th post - Is unsure he'll be back in time, wants to vote Legate, doesn't want to spread the vote, Votes Garin

(Again, the suspicion of Legate has very little explanation beyond a feeling, and it seems more like he's forcing it so we don't assume he's really part of this band wagon. Something is off here.)

I was going to do Durelin, but then I remembered that I already got her with the Manwe voters. :rolleyes: Anyways, how many people have I analyzed now? And how many does that leave? Rikae, I'd wish you'd tell us who those innocents are (I assume that if you'd found a wolf you'd have told us right away) because it'd make this go faster.

Also, I was curious- does the rule about those who are absent applicable to voting or merely to presence? I ask because Glirdan as yet has only one post and no vote, and I wanted to know if he remains absent for the day whether he will be killed or not.

Honestly, Glirdan, if you don't have more posts than the dead at the end of toDay, I may consider voting for you on Day 3. It's a nuisance to have to wonder about you when we could be focusing on something substantial.

[Roa_Aoife]

Oh and Roa, I think you missed a part of her post where she then states that she understands my logic for those I chose, whether that helps or not I don't know, just thought i'd add it.

Who? Durelin or Legate? And which post? I'd like to correct that, though I still think someone else ought to analyze Legate as well.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, I've just realized that with my analysis toDay and yesterDay, and excluding myself and Rikae, I've only got four people left to analyze! And as they're all quiet people, this shouldn't take long at all.

(See, Nogrod, this is why analyzing during the Night phase when you've nothing better to do is worthwhile. Sure you could die in the night, but if you don't, way more work gets done.)

EDIT: I forgot, those people are:

Gil-Galad
Glirdan
Kath
Mithalwen

So, I'll skip Glirdan- I believe everything that can be said about his ONE post has been said already. Gil-galad, coming up. (This shouldn't take long.)

[Roa_Aoife]

Gil-galad

1st post - Decides to take things slow, will review and be back later, decides to look at Manwe and Nogrod because they are under the most speculation

(Really playing it safe here- he says he's going after the two most suspicious people at the time, but never comes back with any conclusions.)

2nd post - Says that he also has a tendency not to say much, doesn't think Manwe is a wolf, lists his hunches: SPM, Hookbill, TGWBS, and Rikae

He does not return to vote on Day 1

3rd post - Agrees with Manwe, puts Legate at the bottom of his list, is worried that he won't return, Votes SPM, apologizes

While I, too, think SPM is guilty, I'd like to see more reasoning from Gil. Also, I don't like his apologizing. (I never like it, really. Either you think someone is guilty, or you don't. If you do, have some conviction in your vote. If you don't, then don't vote for them.) However, as he's cited parental trouble in the Admin thread, I'm going to let him slide for now.

Parents can be such a bother, wouldn't you say, Thin? ;)

Kath next!

[Roa_Aoife]

Kath, Day 1

1st post - feels weird with out an occupation, states the ratios and odds, thinks we have good odds, feels lost

(All she does is state the obvious, However, she is admittedly one of the very first posters, and it looks more like she honestly doesn't know what to discuss rather than trying to appear present with out actually doing anything.)

2nd post - Banter with TGWBS, doesn't think Manwe is suspicious, but just new, wonders if he might be another Valier, thinks Legate is trying to set hemself up as "The Calm One," thinks Hookbill is normal, comment about Durelin and lack of roles, has to leave

No vote, but she explains that on the admin thread. I always have a hard time reading Kath, but she's being especially non-controversial right now. She's making a presence, and she looks like she saying something of substance, but in reality, nothing she says is a new thought. With only two posts, she's barely above Glirdan. I'm definitely keeping a close eye on her from now on.

Mith next, and then I'm done for the night. (Everyone can breathe a sigh of relief.)

[Mänwe]

Mhm, but surely then if she was truly not trying to appear 'present' wouldn't you just not post? Stating the obvious as her first post and as one of the first posters to use a popular phrase, 'screams' of wanting to appear present. Do you not think? If she was really straped for something to say, you'd just not say anything.

I mean most people here are bashing on about 'substance'.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

So I started this post with the intention of saying that Roa's skills in analyzing was not as great as I thought, but as I started to think about what she said I found that she was more correct than I first thought.

Some of my theories my seemed forced and that is because they are. . .I have to force my self to find things I find suspicouse otherwise I would seldom get more than 1 suspect at the time. So yeah many of my suspicions is not based on me seing something and saying "that is wolfish" but more a case of me thinking "that is slightly odd" and then start to make a shaky case out of it.

I have never claimed have any analytical skills, if I do then they do not show because I seldome have pations to make analysis like Roa's.

Anyways you might not belive me, but I did/do want to vote Legate, his attempt to be the voice of reason just seemed over the top. He reminds me of those ever so good people that end up being the real bad guy in cartoons. . .I don't know what else to say as their is not theory behind it, it is purly gut and feeling that legate is trying to hard.

I still feel the same about Mänwe, I think he acts weird and I do suspect him, but for some reason at the same time I have seriouse doubts that he is a wolf. . . It is hard to explain, but it was kind of the same feeling I had about Garin and that was why I mentioned that I would rather lynch Legate.

I suppose it might be that the people that really strikes you as acting in a really weird/wolfish way is very seldome wolves, in fact I can't remember when I last spottet a wolf like this. Whenever I have had the luck to spot a wolf it has been on small things, like a slight twist of words.

Warning: If people start talking about me being over defencive I will beat them with a stick!

When a post is made about me, I feel that I should respond in order to clarify or confuse further.

[Mänwe]

Or kill them during the night? :D Sorry I couldn't resist.

[Mänwe]

Roa, as to where Kitanna stated she understood me;

I'm glad to see Manwe addressed my questions and concerns and I understand his reasoning behind the four he picked in earlier posts (Nogrod, Roa, SpM, and myself). I feel somewhat better about Manwe when he's not dancing around a topic and avoiding answering questions.

Post #96.

[Roa_Aoife]

Mith, Day 1

1st post - Not alot to say, thinks the game will be interesting, cautions everyone about gifteds and their odd vibes, reminds everyone of the cobbler

(While I disagree with Mith about being cautious of gifteds, I find little to suspect in her first post. She managed to stir up quite a bit with it, despite being the first post of the game.)

2nd post - Says she hasn't been near a computer since her first post, is going to read what she's missed

3rd post - points out that Roa likes talk so she can examine it and doesn't find it odd, decides to look at the people who have made a big deal about her joking statement while ignoring her serious one, says she just wanted to remind the village of possible dynamics and to consider all the angles before going after someone suspicious, says her statement about sharing details was rhetorical

(Again, while I disagree with her about her view on the gifted, she seems very reasonable at this point.)

4th post - Remembers that Garin has a tendency to look suspicious

(What happened to looking at the people who misunderstood your statement?)

5th post - Disagrees with Roa about gifted

(Well, that was expected, though she still hasn't looked at the people who ignored her serious statement, and in seems more in favor of looking at the one person who didn't.)

6th post - feels uneasy about Lal's single post, thinks Manwe is just new, wants to see why everyone finds Rikae suspicious, says a vote for SPM would be traditional, but is puzzled by the squabling between him and Roa, though the two are the most likely to argue "the toss" (?), says the village is much quieter than expected

(Ah, here they are. I wish she'd put a little more into it though. There's just a brief summary on each. I'm not sure what to make of that.)

7th post - Doesn't know who to vote for, wants to save Rikae but isn't convinced of either Manwe or Garin's guilt

(While I can understand the frustration, it's better to lynch an innocent and save the seer than to quibble about it and let the minutes slide away. It worries me. Does she know both are innocent and doesn't want to be tied to an innocent bandwagon?)

8th post - Says Rikae was a very bold wolf last game, but she will be found out quickly if she is lying

(I'm not sure what the point of this was. Everyone realizes this, I think, and I don't believe that anyone had called Rikae into question yet, though I could be wrong.)

9th - Says Lal would be her choice since she can't decide about Roa and SPM, says Lal doesn't feel right, and she may be playing with an evil Lal for the first time.

10th - agrees that Rikae shouldn't reveal anything until Day 2

11th - Votes Lal, since Rikae is safe

(Well, at least she stuck to her guns, small as they may have been. I can respect sticking with your own conclusions instead of going with a bandwagon, but it still seems like she went with a safe vote instead of risking a vote for Garin or Manwe to save our seer. I don't trust her hesitation, here.)

Okay, having analyzed everyone in the village except the dead, the known innocent, and myself, I feel I've made my fair share of contributions to the village for now. I'm going to bed, but I should be back well before the end of the Day. (I may check back in a little bit, if I can't sleep, but no promises.)

[Roa_Aoife]

Mhm, but surely then if she was truly not trying to appear 'present' wouldn't you just not post? Stating the obvious as her first post and as one of the first posters to use a popular phrase, 'screams' of wanting to appear present. Do you not think? If she was really straped for something to say, you'd just not say anything.

I assume you mean Kath? I think you misunderstood. I said that she looked like she was trying to appear present, not the opposite. And that was for her second post, not her first. In her first post, yes, she put some effort in to being helpful, or at least appearing that way. So we're in agreement on that point, I guess.

Rune, I think I'm willing to buy it, but I didn't analyze you because I think you're particularly suspicious, but rather because it's a help to the village and gives everyone something to think about and discuss. (See, it's working!)

Roa, as to where Kitanna stated she understood me;
Quote:
I'm glad to see Manwe addressed my questions and concerns and I understand his reasoning behind the four he picked in earlier posts (Nogrod, Roa, SpM, and myself). I feel somewhat better about Manwe when he's not dancing around a topic and avoiding answering questions.

Post #96.

Oh, right, that's where I said:

...accepts Manwe's response to her questions, feels better about him,...
...she seems content to exonerate him all together....

I didn't leave it out; I just shortened and paraphrased it. I try not to go word for word in a summary. That would negate the purpose of a summary.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Oh I know why you analyzed me, but I still felt like I should answer.

[Mänwe]

Roa thank you ever so for your definition of 'summary'.

And,

You said,

(All she does is state the obvious, However, she is admittedly one of the very first posters, and it looks more like she honestly doesn't know what to discuss rather than trying to appear present with out actually doing anything.)
[my bold]

That was your comment for her 1st post, right?

If so, I was suggesting that in fact she WAS trying to appear present in her 1st post as well as her 2nd. Which is different from what you say, you think in her 1st post (if indeed this was your comment for her 1st post, which I assumed was because the comment was beneath your summary of her 1st post) she was just honestly not knowing but in her 2nd she was trying to appear present.

[Roa_Aoife]

Can't sleep, so I thought I'd check up again. (Wretched werewolf addiction! I thought I'd quit, but noooo. First, Fea and then Nogrod have to drage me back in, and now I've relapsed. I'm going to have to go back to WW Rehab again....)

Ahem, anyways....

Manwe, I seriously think lines are getting crossed here, and I'm starting to think it's deliberate.

I said:

(All she does is state the obvious, However, she is admittedly one of the very first posters, and it looks more like she honestly doesn't know what to discuss rather than trying to appear present with out actually doing anything.)

then

No vote, but she explains that on the admin thread. I always have a hard time reading Kath, but she's being especially non-controversial right now. She's making a presence, and she looks like she saying something of substance, but in reality, nothing she says is a new thought. With only two posts, she's barely above Glirdan. I'm definitely keeping a close eye on her from now on.

I'd like to point out that the parts in parenthesis are my imediate thoughts on each post. This is evident in my analysis on Mith, where for two posts I was wondering at the lack of her promised analysis, only to find it in the third. I used to do analysis differently. I would post the summary, and then I would post my analysis seperately. I found that most people would skip the summary and go right to the analysis, which was based on the summary. It just created a big hole. So I modified my style a bit, and instead I put my imediate thoughts on each post right after the summary, and finish the analysis at the end by tying it all up.

You said:

Mhm, but surely then if she was truly not trying to appear 'present' wouldn't you just not post? Stating the obvious as her first post and as one of the first posters to use a popular phrase, 'screams' of wanting to appear present. Do you not think? If she was really straped for something to say, you'd just not say anything.

To be honest, I'm still not sure if you were agreeing with me, or disagreeing with me, or just ignored the second part of my analysis. I didn't know which post you meant, and I only deduced it was Kath because this was posted shortly after my analysis of her. So I clarified with:

I think you misunderstood. I said that she looked like she was trying to appear present, not the opposite. And that was for her second post, not her first. In her first post, yes, she put some effort in to being helpful, or at least appearing that way. So we're in agreement on that point, I guess.

Which you apparently still misunderstand, because you said:

If so, I was suggesting that in fact she WAS trying to appear present in her 1st post as well as her 2nd. Which is different from what you say, you think in her 1st post (if indeed this was your comment for her 1st post, which I assumed was because the comment was beneath your summary of her 1st post) she was just honestly not knowing but in her 2nd she was trying to appear present.

You're right, in a way. My initial reaction to her first post was that she was simply strapped for things to talk about. With the look at her second post however, it seems a pattern of saying what's already been said. Hence the other 75% of my analysis, which you apparently missed.

Roa thank you ever so for your definition of 'summary'.

I always try to be helpful, especially to those who seem to need it.

[Thinlómien]

Yay for the ranger!

Nogrod's first assumption that the ranger and the wolves were after someone else than Rikae certainly caught my attention today, yet I don't know what to think of it. It seems a genuine innocent idea, but it could also be a clever wolvish ploy... I must think more of it before making a final judgement, but I just wanted to mention that/ point that out.

~*~

Uh, oh, Roa, quite a flood of posts. I hope you're not a faithful - no one's ever going to be able to nail you by analysing your posts! :eek: :D

Parents can be such a bother, wouldn't you say, Thin? Agreed. But in this family, werewolf-wise, it usually goes the other way around... :p

~*~

Okay, I have nothing intelligent to say right now, I don't know what to think, except I vaguely suspect Durelin and Brinniel and Kitanna right now, (and I'm keeping my eye on Noggie and Sauce as well). I think I'll reread the thread and see if I can come up with more concrete (old or new) suspicions or evidence.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Hookbill Day 1

1st post - says he left too early, thinks the death was poetic

(What does he mean he left too early? Was he here at the start of the Day and just didn't comment? Why would he do that?)

I meant I'd left it too late. Sorry, must have been a typo. I didn't comment after the first two comments because I had nothing to go on and said to myself 'I'll leave it a while' then left it too long and there were many posts I had to read which was annoying for I am lazy. :rolleyes:

(While he seems to suspect Manwe for his rather ambiguous statement to SPM, it seems as though Hookbill is really the one trying to point out the Seer, and the only one making a big deal about it at all is him. Honestly, if you read into that statement, you ought to keep your mouth shut.)

Yes I think I probably did read into it too much. As I said, I'm not too good at this game.


Between the banter and silliness, it was hard to find anything of substabce in Hookbill's posts. I don't know if he's ever played before, but he seems very lost. Or rather, he seems like he's trying to seem like he's very lost. It has a very played up feeling. Also, he apologizes for his vote, and that's always suspicious to me.

I've only played once before and it was a long while ago. In my last game I made terrible mistakes and generally had a bad game. :( Hence I've been hesitant to join any WW games because the first one went so badly.

Well, I can't say anything I've read here leads me to any theories. I'll come back when I have something to say. (As I said on the Admin thread, I'll do my best to post but I've got a busy day...)

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I spent a couple of minutes reading Nogrod's statements, and I'm more confused than I was a few minutes ago.

Well the numbers surely are shrinking with a bit too fast pace but happily there seems to be some good news as well with the Ranger making a great save. And now our Ranger too has a known innocent in her/his pocket and will probably live at least up to toMorrow. So with that save we kind of managed to get a borrowed Seer for one Night! Meaning: in Day3 we should have at least two living known innocents around and possibly the ranger might save it then again (50-50 chance of them being around on Day4 as well)... That would help our task considerably.

Kudos to her/him! And a bow.

Sorry people... I was maybe getting a bit too optimistic back there...

It just occured to me that the wolves might have been so stupid as not to try and kill someone else safely the last Night but go straightforwards to Rikae (counting she's the Seer) and thence obviously be denied the kill in the first place.

Or is it a most Devillish plan where all this is staged to cover up for a false Seer? But it shouldn't work. It just couldn't. Too risky (even for Roa? ) so long as a right Seer still lives and killing her/him soon would be most reckless too - even with four faithfuls around.

So maybe we don't have two known innocents toMorrow. I was just too happy, too early...

It's just weird... I mean, he's a sensible and rational guy, we all know that... And as to a kill that has been denied when there's a known seer, wouldn't it be logical to think that the ranger played it safe protected the seer and the wolves risked trying to kill her? I mean, thinking from the wolves' point of view, there's still four of them, three ordos are dead, the seer's revealed... They have a situation in which they can risk checking if the ranger was protecting Rikae or not. And they decided to take this risk. That's how I see it. My question is why is Nogrod making this so complicated? I know he can think in a bit complicated way at times, but... Also, calling the wolves stupid sounds like something a wolf could do. I don't understand this... Is Nogrod a confused and far-fetched inocent, a cobbler or a bluffing wolf?

edit: xed with Hookbill

[Brinniel]

I will honestly admit (since there still seems to be some talk about it) that in my first post, my comment about Hookbill was just harmless banter. Yet, as I observe him, I am beginning to question his innocence. He repeatedly admits that he is not good at this game, that he is unsure and a bit lost. While his comments do seem sincere, there is a small part of me that wonders if his confusion is just a ploy.

I believe it is Roa who said I am a thoughtful player, and indeed I am. I must think further on this before making any actual assumptions...

Anyways you might not belive me, but I did/do want to vote Legate, his attempt to be the voice of reason just seemed over the top. He reminds me of those ever so good people that end up being the real bad guy in cartoons. . .I don't know what else to say as their is not theory behind it, it is purly gut and feeling that legate is trying to hard.
Indeed, this is an interesting thought. I haven't really formed any opinions over Legate yet, though I would like to see how he posts toDay.

[Thinlómien]

I will honestly admit (since there still seems to be some talk about it) that in my first post, my comment about Hookbill was just harmless banter. Yet, as I observe him, I am beginning to question his innocence. He repeatedly admits that he is not good at this game, that he is unsure and a bit lost. While his comments do seem sincere, there is a small part of me that wonders if his confusion is just a ploy. I actually agree with you. I mean, 90% of his posts is either banter, wailing about not being good in this game or defense of himself. Sounds suspicious, but would a wolf do this?
I agree that his comments about his confusion seem sincere, but there's the possibility he really is confused, and he uses it to his own advance (to get sympathy or seem harmless or to avoid making any real cases and thus tracks) by repeating and exaggerating it. That's something to consider.

[Thinlómien]

So, all votes and the reasons for them, from yesterday: (I'm doing known innocents too, just for the record)

1. Durelin for Mänwe
For a little extreme day1-chatting, "his bragging of his fisherman wisdom is getting to me" and she says she has nothing better to go on.

2. Rikae for Mänwe
"Because there is something slightly forced, or fabricated, about the actual content of his posts" , underlines that there was a "lack of any other leads at the moment".

3. Mänwe for Nogrod
No reasoning in the actual vote post. Has previously suspected him for numerous reasons - at least for "alluding to the absence of others", for picking Glirdan so early, for not answering Mänwe's and Rune's points/questions and because suspecting a wolvish co-operation of Noggie, Roa, SPM and Kitanna.

4. Thinlómien for Rikae
For a weird early vote and an unreasonable case, emphasises too that there's not very much to go on yet.

5. Garin for Nogrod
Because he didn't want to vote his other suspects (Mith and Rikae) and because Nogrod might prove a dangerous werefaithful.

6. Garin retracts from Nogrod and votes for Rikae
Is confused. Because voting Nogrod was in fact against his instinct and "because you shouldn't take votes lightly".

7. Brinniel for Rikae
Says she's going with her gut and because Rikae "only posted once, and within that post, made a hasty vote with little reason to back it up...".

8. TGWBS for Garin
Says he must either be a faithful or the cobbler, because of his weird vote and vote switch.

9. Roa_Aoife for SPM
Because of everything she had stated before and because she thinks it's suspicious for Sauce to consider Nogrod's behaviour unusual since in her opinion he's just normal. The previous states suspicions are Sauce trying to make Nog look more aggressive than he actually is, Sauce being eager to form a bond with Mänwe, Sauce comparing his own reasonableness with Nogrod's unreasonableness, Sauce's "too good at directing his wording to point one way, when he's actually meaning something else", Sauce has Rikae as a "back-lynchee" and Roa doesn't like Sauce's cases against Noggie overall.

10. Kitanna for Garin
"His vote for Nogrod seemed odd. He had a case going against Rikae, but decided not to vote for her because it could be viewed as a safe vote. -- I'm confused by his actions and am somewhat alarmed by them."

11. Rune for Garin
Does not want to spread the vote (would have preferred voting Legate), and says that Garin's more suspicious than Mänwe. Previously has said that his voting post (the vote for Nogrod) is contradictory and that he's odd.

12. SPM for Rikae
"Rikae's seeming enthusiasm for promoting the (then) gathering Manwe bandwaggon looks the more suspicious to me." Also finds her explanation about time problems unconvincing and her vote placement suspicious.

13. Hookbill for Mänwe
Because he has no better suspect and Mänwe acts oddly, admits that this might be retaliatory suspicion.

14. Holbytlass for Garin
There was nothing else than the vote in her post (and as she's a known dead innocent I'm too lazy to reskim through the thread to find out if she suspected him before or not, and if yes, why).

15. Lalaith for Holbytlass
Because she thinks Holby's a cobbler sending signals to the werefaithfuls.

16. Durelin retrcats from Rikae and votes for Mänwe
Obviously because of Rikae's revelation. Has had somewhat vague suspicions about him before.

17. Roa retracts from SPM and changes to Garin
Again, because of the seer-thing. Garin was her other main suspect (alongside with SPM), mainly because of his "weird display before he left" meaning the vote-switch, I assume.

18. Legate for Mänwe
States no reasons in his vote post, has previously suspected him for accusing out of nothing and being harsh/ruthless and mixing Roa with Nogrod.

19. Mithalwen for Lalaith
"Because Rikae seems safe." Has expressed suspicion of Lalaith's first post and has sais that unlike usually, Lalaith does not seem fine to her.

20. Nogrod for Mänwe
Thinks he might be the cobbler. Voting to assure Rikae's safe (or so I assume).

21. Lalaith retracts from Holby and votes Mänwe
To assure that Rikae's safe. Is not very inclined to suspect Mänwe in general.

~*~

Well, that took almost an hour and I'm not sure if I'm any wiser. :rolleyes: Not my method, it seems.

Lalaith's second vote has been criticised, and I don't see why. It seems everybody was a bit confused about the vote counts late yesterday and every good servant of Annatar would try to assure that the high priest's safe.

I don't know precisely why, but Brinn's vote makes me slightly uneasy. It's somehow too clean and fitting... and bandwagonish... but I don't know. I'm trying to puzzle if I would have still voted Rikae at that phase of the day, or would I have had some better suspect... I don't know... But if it's a possibility that I'd still had voted Rikae, should I exonerate Brinn's vote?

I understand Rune did not want to spread the vote, but... Why didn't he build a solid case against Legate and try to convert others to his side rather than give up his only serious suspicion not to spread the vote?

~*~

I'll be back in a few hours, then I can be around for about an hour (or a bit less) and then I have to vote and go.

[Rikae]

Well, sorry to inform you of this folks, but you're relying on analysis done by none other than Tar-Míriel.
I wouldn't waste today's lynch on Roa, if I were you, but perhaps she's left a bit of a trail in her voluminous contributions. After all, she probably has a good idea who the faithfuls are.

Of course, lynching Roa will prove I'm the "high priestess"; but tonight will prove that at any rate.

You might want to take a look at anyone else who has suspected Nogrod, or at the very least, you can write him off the suspect list - he's innocent.
I'm sorry I haven't been more help - I should be able to join the discussion this afternoon (EST), but if not, good luck!

[Thinlómien]

Okay, thanks for exonerating Nogrod, now I don't need to be puzzled about those statements!

And OMG (if I'm allowed to use that term ;)), believe me or not, I almost posted half-jokingly toDay that Roa might be the cobbler !!! since she's flood-posting in such amounts and that countless analysises (analysi?) is a very good way of confusing people... But then I concluded that flooding analysis is Roa's normal behaviour and decided to forget about the idea of Tar-Roael and leave the joke be...
What can we conclude from this? Answer: always trust your sense of humour. :p

Now (before you all get annoyed with me ;)) I'll start working on something more contributive/constructive...

[the guy who be short]

Thank you Rikae for that information (although I thought the Seer would see the Cobbler as an innocent?). I was just about to say that you should reveal your dreams before you die toNight (inevitable, as you were protected yesterNight).

Now then, it is vexing that Roa is Tar-Miriel, and hopefully we'll be able to analyse her posts and glean some information.

However, much more to the point, we have two known innocents: Nogrod and Rikae. This is very important because, while their views are subjective, they are innocent. Anybody else could be a wolf, and so their views and analyses can never quite be trusted - look at Roa for example. I was just thinking how helpful all this analysis is, and it turns out she's been trying to deceive us all this time.

What we must do, then, is use Nogrod and Rikae as a platform. Our votes should be based upon their ideas, simply because we know that their ideas are all coming from innocent people.

We should take this opportunity while we can. Rikae will die tonight, and Nogrod will probably die soon after.

I will now name a few of my own suspicions before going over posts by Nogrod, Rikae, and Roa.

[Thinlómien]

What we must do, then, is use Nogrod and Rikae as a platform. Our votes should be based upon their ideas, simply because we know that their ideas are all coming from innocent people.So were getting back to idolising known innocents? It's something I dislike. While you can argue that their opinions are certainly not wolvish ones or ploys, their ideas aren't any better only because they're known innocents. I think everybody should heed the known innocents' advice - and give it more worth than to other villagers' advice - but the village should not leave thinking to only a few people or trust the known innocents' judgement simply because they're innocent. I think you can safely say that we should trust and heed Rikae and Nogrod more than other fellow villagers, but we certainly should not stop believing in our own reasoning or stop thinking ourselves or limit our list of suspects because Rikae and Noggie don't suspect some people.

This might be only because I disagree with TGWBS on this matter, but suggesting that seems a wolvish thing to do... I mean, what's a better tactic for a wolf than idolising known innocents? Pretty much everyone agrees that their advice should be heeded, and by suggesting things like this you generally get more trust and people might consider you more innocent... I can't express this properly, but I think this is suspicious.
Besides, if TGWBS was a wolf, whose companions were not much suspected, this could be a very good tactic for him, taking the attention and the lynch-mob further from his fellows.
But I guess I won't pursue that interpretation further, because I have no more basis for claiming that than claiming that I look like a wolf whose fellows are suspected by Rikae and Nogrod and I'm trying to save them by attacking TGWBS's theory... :rolleyes:

~*~

And I guess we shouldn't heed anything Roa says anymore. From now on, she will try to confuse us even more. Even though she does not know the identities of the wolves, I'm sure she can manage to mess up our minds and thoughts and even that itself is an advantage to the wolves.

[Rikae]

Well, before I go, if you're going to be using my ideas as a starting point I suppose I should let you know what I've been thinking today...
I know I said looking at the voters-for-me was futile, but I do think Lommy has been giving off a faithful-ish vibe - slightly nervous, jumpy and unsubstantive, trying to appear helpful... I don't have time to go into a detailed analysis right now (religious rites, ie, school), but I'll try to supply one before I ... get off the train at Baltimore. (Kick the bucket, buy the farm, you get the picture.)
I just thought throwing that out there might give you somewhere to start...although this is just a hunch on my part, and certainly fallible.

EDIT: X'd with Lommy.

[Thinlómien]

A rather funny cross-post. :D

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I must go now.

++TGWBS

Because of that latest. Also, if you look through his earlier posts, he's very careful, unlike usually (as an ordo). This strikes me as wolvish carefulness. Also, he posts voting data etc little nice things that makes me think he also might try to seem helpful... I dunno. And add gut feeling to that pile. The more I read his posts, the less he sits right with me.
If I and he are both still alive today, I'll certainly analyse him more thoroughly.

As to other people that bug me... Durelin. She comments everything and jokes about everything, her posts are mostly agreeing with others and her votes are weird and very safe... I don't like her in this game.

Kitanna is also slightly worrying. This is mostly a gut-feeling thing, though. But her vote placement and constant agreeing-humming make me wary of her as well.

[the guy who be short]

So were getting back to idolising known innocents? It's something I dislike. While you can argue that their opinions are certainly not wolvish ones or ploys, their ideas aren't any better only because they're known innocents... the village should not leave thinking to only a few people or trust the known innocents' judgement simply because they're innocent.
I certainly don't think we should stop thinking! I intend to analyse a few people I myself suspect - Lalaith and Brinniel - whom neither Nogrod nor Rikae suspect (I think). But the thing to bear in mind is that any analysis could be Faithful EXCEPT the analysis of the known innocents. You may call it idolizing to use this, but I call it common sense. If everybody were forced to vote from a shortlist selected by the known innocents, all of us - wolves included - would have to vote based on what is definitely innocent knowledge.

The problem with this is that the Faithful can manipulate the shortlist if one member is Faithful and the rest are not, but I think this makes them easier to catch afterwards.

The size of the shortlist must also be considered. We are 18, of whom 2 are known innocents, one is a known Tar-Miriel, and four are wolves.

This means 4/15 of the people who could be on a shortlist are wolves. About a quarter, so we'd have to have four people on the list for a reasonable chance of getting at least 1 wolf on it. I wonder if that would work? Could the wolves manipulate such a list with ease or not?

[the guy who be short]

Well, I've thought about it a bit, and I don't think a shortlist would work. The wolves would have four votes out of 15, which would be enough to influence others or save a compatriot.

Now something that confuses me about Day 1 is the Nogrod-Roa-SpM triangle. I commented on Nogrod and SpM sparring - a result, I believe, of their both being loud, rather than Faithful. Neither of their cases seems to be based on logic, - SpM accused Nogrod for encouraging people to talk, and Nogrod attacks SpM for making a lot of his statement encouraging people to talk. I feel, as earlier, that they are both innocent.

What interests me in all this is Tar-Miroa. Why did she latch onto Nogrod - something Nogrod himself was wary of? Did she accept SpM's accusation of Nogrod, thus thinking Nogrod was Faithful, and so attack what she thought was an innocent SpM? If so, why? SpM's accusation of Nogrod was not terribly convincing.

I suppose it's not really worth speculating on it. We'll never know; Tar-Miroa won't tell us. And it's not very important anyway.

On to analyses of Lalaith, Brinniel and perhaps Thinlo after that outburst.

[Gil-Galad]

so let me get this straight, Roa is Tar-Miriel(the cobbler) then? or what?


well my vote for Saucey is mainly, as always, that his posts are rather rare at times, he comes in, says a rahter long speech that probably only half of us try to read, then leaves again. i'm not criticizing him for the one post thing, just the big thing that tries to sum everything up, so my vote still stays

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, sorry to inform you of this folks, but you're relying on analysis done by none other than Tar-Míriel.
I wouldn't waste today's lynch on Roa, if I were you, but perhaps she's left a bit of a trail in her voluminous contributions. After all, she probably has a good idea who the faithfuls are.
:eek: I am perplexed. Our village is really going from bad to worse. Not only our numbers have thinned somehow in a very quick way, not only that Rikae is most likely doomed to die this night, but Roa is a cobbler!?! I was quite inclined to consider her a helpful villager at first, seems my judgement is not as good as I thought.

And to that what Rikae mentioned - what to do with Roa now. I agree it would be better to let her go, she cannot do much if we don't heed to her advice, or can she? If she can somehow help the wolves yet, I think it would be safer to get rid of her instead of risking lynching someone innocent. And, by the way, does she count into the villager count since she's been already revealed?

Anyways you might not belive me, but I did/do want to vote Legate, his attempt to be the voice of reason just seemed over the top. He reminds me of those ever so good people that end up being the real bad guy in cartoons. . .I don't know what else to say as their is not theory behind it, it is purly gut and feeling that legate is trying to hard.

I still feel the same about Mänwe, I think he acts weird and I do suspect him, but for some reason at the same time I have seriouse doubts that he is a wolf. . . It is hard to explain, but it was kind of the same feeling I had about Garin and that was why I mentioned that I would rather lynch Legate.

Oh, Rune, I can assure you I am not a cartoon bad guy. The thing with Hookbill I already explained. I am trying to collect as much as I can from what is going on around and then understanding it, and since I don't see anything much clear, I try to clear it up as much as I could. Brinniel at that time seemed replying seriously to a joke and I came right after her, so I asked. Nothing more, nothing less.

I think everybody should heed the known innocents' advice - and give it more worth than to other villagers' advice - but the village should not leave thinking to only a few people or trust the known innocents' judgement simply because they're innocent.

Exactly. After all, the plurality allows us to come to a better conclusion, one can correct what someone else has misinterpretated or overlooked, etc. Now I really see the power of the Seer and realize what loss it is to lose Rikae.

I know I said looking at the voters-for-me was futile, but I do think Lommy has been giving off a faithful-ish vibe
I don't see anything wrong with Lommy. She is as much suspicious as anyone else, but I found her thoughts rather logical so far. Unless she is masking herself too well with some inventive thoughts, like Roa did.

I will honestly admit (since there still seems to be some talk about it) that in my first post, my comment about Hookbill was just harmless banter. Yet, as I observe him, I am beginning to question his innocence. He repeatedly admits that he is not good at this game, that he is unsure and a bit lost. While his comments do seem sincere, there is a small part of me that wonders if his confusion is just a ploy.
In "response" to this I would quote one of Hookbill's earlier posts:
I've only played once before and it was a long while ago. In my last game I made terrible mistakes and generally had a bad game. Hence I've been hesitant to join any WW games because the first one went so badly.
I tend to believe Hookbill. Again, as with Lommy, if he is not bluffing very good, which I doubt, I think he speaks the truth.

If everybody were forced to vote from a shortlist selected by the known innocents, all of us - wolves included - would have to vote based on what is definitely innocent knowledge.
I think this is nonsense. As I said above, we need the plurality, otherwise we are stuck.

Lastly, my own inventive thoughts from what has happened here. I see we cannot bear as true what Roa presented to us, although it fills half of this thread. And at first I was going to thank her for this. *sigh* Now, I will stay focused on my own point of view, since other peoples' hints might prove to be wrong as they did now. Ah! Seems I finally caught the point of how this game is to be played. All right boys, will be back with some constructive thoughts.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, sorry to inform you of this folks, but you're relying on analysis done by none other than Tar-Míriel.

I don't know why the real seer hasn't come forward to destroy your claim, but perhaps they are waiting till tomorrow, when you clearly won't be dead. I know you have only my word to go on, but Rikae is lying! I'd sooner suspect her of being Tar-Miriel than a Faithful with this suicidal plan, but I'm not sure.

I wouldn't waste today's lynch on Roa, if I were you, but perhaps she's left a bit of a trail in her voluminous contributions. After all, she probably has a good idea who the faithfuls are.

Of course you wouldn't- it'd prove you were lying. Lynch me if you must, but wait until tomorrow, and then lynch her, becuase she'll still be around.

Only a few people can comeofrward and prove me right. Please do!

[the guy who be short]

Lalaith

Her first post is logical - we should not be sharing info on how to find gifteds!

Post 106 is when I first looked at her. She votes for Holbytlass for saing "I'm not sure who we're to pray to." Picking up on language like that seems silly when there's so much else going on. It was also a safe vote - Rikae and Garin had 4 each, Manwe had 3. As such, it seemed a waste of a vote cast for a reason lacking much thought behind it.

Posts 118-9 she tells Rikae to reveal her dream, then says not to because the wolves will kill this person if she does. I'm not sure what to make of this; it could be interpreted for or against Lalaith.

Her final post on day 1, post 129, switches her vote to Manwe to help save Rakae. I think at this point Rakae was already saved, was she not? In any case, that seems fairly reasonable to me.

All her posts today seem perfectly fine to me. I don't regard her as very suspicious after doing this analysis. In fact, I realise that my suspicion stemmed from Roa, who made Lalaith appear Faithful in her analysis. This, if anything, proves the importance of not taking other people's word for it - do research yourself. You are the only person you can trust.

Next, Brinniel.

[Roa_Aoife]

TGWBS - I was not the only person, nor the first, to find Lalaith odd looking. My analysis picks on every little detail, that's why I pride myself on it. Please, I didn't have any sinnister intentions with it.

[the guy who be short]

Brinniel has only posted 4 times.

Post 44 doesn't say much. She defends Manwe a little, attacks Hookbill a little, but that's it really. Not much to go on.

Post 49 continues in this way. She says she doesn't suspect anybody.

Post 85 votes for Rikae and suspects Garin. Now... I may be biased here, having suspected both these people yesterDay, but the logic seems sound to me. Garin's vote-switching was odd. Rikae's sudden vote was odd. However, perhaps Brinniel was merely latching onto these ideas which had already been formulated by others.

Post 181, today, ever-so-mildly accuses Hookbill.

I suppose what worries most about Brinniel is that she says so incredibly little. Her posts are scarce and scanty. It's hard to form an opinion about such a person, which is what worries me - it's so easy to avoid attention.

Potential vote from me. First, I will also analyse Mith, my last personal suspect.

[Roa_Aoife]

*sigh* So you're content to ignore me. Perhaps you are in this with Rikae, I don't know, but someone please listen instead of just blindly accepting her word for this!

I'd do an analysis on Rikae, but I fear it would be useless.

If no one's willing to listen, I'm going to stop talking.

[the guy who be short]

Roa - while others did mildly suspect Lalaith before you, you were the first to put together a case that was actually convincing.

Mithalwen

Post 6 is now infamous - how to tell gifteds from Faithfuls.

Post 67 - Says she's been quiet as she's been away from a computer.

Post 74 - She says she sees nothing odd about Roa. She defends her initial statement about telling gifteds from Faithfuls, stressing that she said she doesn't want the village to force gifteds to out themselves.

Post 87 - says Garin is always weird.

Post 101 - Disagrees with a post by Roa; says the Faithful would not let a gifted live.

Post 104 - Suspects Lalaith for "miscontruing" her post about sorting gifteds from Faithfuls. Also says it's hard to suspect anybody.

Post 112 - Cannot decide whom to vote for.

Post 115 - Says Rikae will be found out if she's lying.


Well, I'm cutting it off there. My entire suspicion of Mith was based on that single first post (which she has defended vehemently). It still doesn't feel right to me, but the rest of what she says seems okay. I'm no longer too worried about her.

[the guy who be short]

Roa - why would Rikae lie about you being Tar-Miriel, if she were not a Seer having dreamt of you? A fake-seer would be far better off naming two innocents to gain their trust.

Please just accept that the village is not going to trust you. To do so would be illogical.

[Roa_Aoife]

Roa - while others did mildly suspect Lalaith before you, you were the first to put together a case that was actually convincing.


I didn't build a case- I did an analysis. Which if, you hadn't noticed, I did of everyone. Except of course, Rikae, because I thought she was innocent. Hardly an attempt to get everyone to vote Lal.

Roa - why would Rikae lie about you being Tar-Miriel, if she were not a Seer having dreamt of you? A fake-seer would be far better off naming two innocents to gain their trust.


I don't know! Maybe she wants to cripple a vocal and helpful villager, and maybe she wants to make my analysis useless because Ifound something in there that she doesn't want anybody to look at! I don't know what her plan is, I just know that she's lying about being the seer, because I know I'm not Tar-Miriel.

There is one person who can come forward to stop the village from being mislead, and still not have us sacrifice any gifteds. The innocent who was actually protected last night. Please, don't let her drag the village down. If you come forward, then no true gifteds have to reveal, and we can stop Rikae from leading the village astray.

Please just accept that the village is not going to trust you. To do so would be illogical.

I never expect to be trusted, but I will not back down, because I know I'm telling the truth, whether you believe me or not.

[Mänwe]

Roa, and I sincerely thank you for it, you are a samaritan.

~~~

I would also like to add, that Roa seems to have lost her 'cool' after the accusation. Seems rather desperate; now we have Rikae a possible Seer (possible in the eyes of Roa and a few others) revealing her as the cobbler.

Still, if the four wolves attacked her last night, then they must have agreed that she was not lying when she revealed herself. So it is probable she is, unless of course as has been mentioned the Faithful's knew the Ranger would protect the Seer.

Mhm, perhaps Roa looses herself in her analysis, and looses us in her analysis. As has been said, she has the potential to continue confusing us with further analysis on us all. I would be content to ignore her now..vote for her even. If Rikae is not killed this evening by the wolves well we can then seriously doubt that she is the Seer, surely they could not risk letting her have another dream!

Another plus for voting Roa, is, if indeed she is the cobbler then we have eliminated a potential thorn in our side...however if she is innocent (I personally doubt it, I had reservations as Thin did over how 'useful' she was appearing.) Then it would be further proof that Rikae was lying to us. And if she were lying to us, well it would certainly look as if she were a faithful.

Would it not!?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Whither you like Roa or not and whither she is good or bad one has to recognise her skills! Even now when all evidence points towards her being the cobbler she mannage to put doubts in my mind.

I think the only sensible thing to do is to let Roa live for at least another day. . . That I think is the safest action to take.

About Legate. . .I deffinitly got a better feel from his last post than yesterday, it seemed more genuin. He is a bit flip-flopish/unsure about what he wants to do about Roa, I don't know if anything should be read into it or if it is as it seems, just normal doubts.

Some attention is gathering around Brinniel and I think it is justified, I know that RL has been pretty bussy for her so that could have something to do with why she is not saying much.

Something seems not to be right, maybe she is just a bit unsure about how to go about these affairs and therefor hold back when writting.

I also do not understand her suspcions against Hookbill, I suppose it might be kind of how iI felt about Legate.

EDIT: Cross Posted with Roa and Mänwe

[Nogrod]

I'd do an analysis on Rikae, but I fear it would be useless.

If no one's willing to listen, I'm going to stop talking.Okay, I'm here and listening again... :)

Please Roa, you have worked just as a great cobbler would. I know this from some experiences (nasty and nice). It's clear that a Cobbler's game actually starts only at a later date, but there is one thing the cobbler must ensure and that is not to be dreamt of early in the game. With a player of your stature it's pretty probable to be dreamt of so you'd have to be extra helpful to gain the trust needed. And what have you done? Look at how people have reacted to the news: "I was going to praise you, but *sigh*". Great playing Roa! *bowsdown*

Okay it is possible. A Cobbler/Faithful Rikae, after really thinking she was going to be hanged decided to make a last desperate try for it. But that would be checked soon enough and with our numbers we should have no worries about it, yet.

And anyhow. The real Seer (whether she is Rikae or someone else) knows two names now and the ranger knows whether s/he protected Rikae last Night or not and thence who is right. So nothing to worry so long as they both stay low. The worst that we might have now would be the Faithfuls getting the identity of our gifteds.

EDIT: X'd from Roa onwards...

[Roa_Aoife]

You'll have proof tomorrow anyways, because Rikae will still be alive.

It occurs to me now, that the wolves may have actually attacked her (assuming she's Tar-Miriel, because it would be a foolish move for a Faithful at this point), not realizing that she was the cobbler in disguise, and the ranger may have truly protected her. In which case, that's very good luck for the wolves side. As the rules state:

Tar-Míriel (cobbler) belongs to the innocents, but is in reality hoping for the Faithfuls to win. She does not know the Faithfuls’ identity and the Faithfuls don’t know hers.

If this is the case, then I have nothing to prove my innocense except my death, or the true seer's reveal. I'll just be patient then. Rikae will be alive tomorrow, I garuntee it. And then you'll see. The true seer can stay hidden another day. And since I've said all I can say, I'll be signing off for toDay. I'll still be reading along, though.

EDIT: Cross with Nogrod

[Brinniel]

I suppose what worries most about Brinniel is that she says so incredibly little. Her posts are scarce and scanty.
I'm not going to become all defensive at TGWBS's suspicisions, for I think it would be pointless. However, I will point out that I do not say much because I am a naturally quiet person. Perhaps it seems for you, but it's quite normal for me.

As for Roa's claims, I find it more likely she is lying than Rikae. After all, wouldn't it only be typical for a cobbler revealed to deny her role?

Back to Hookbill, he could very well, be honest, but then again, he good also be a good bluff. I'm still not sure about him...

And the more and more I am becoming suspicious of Legate. From his last post, he seems to think no one is suspicious and I find that a bit odd.

Anyways, I have to go to class and must vote very shortly, and I'm not quite sure who yet...

[Roa_Aoife]

Please Roa, you have worked just as a great cobbler would. I know this from some experiences (nasty and nice). It's clear that a Cobbler's game actually starts only at a later date, but there is one thing the cobbler must ensure and that is not to be dreamt of early in the game. With a player of your stature it's pretty probable to be dreamt of so you'd have to be extra helpful to gain the trust needed. And what have you done? Look at how people have reacted to the news: "I was going to praise you, but *sigh*". Great playing Roa! *bowsdown*

I always play this way, evil or not, and you know it, Nogrod. Analysis is what I do. Of course I'm not surprised you support Rikae- she named you innocent! As long as everyone believes her, you avoid scrutiny.

As for Roa's claims, I find it more likely she is lying than Rikae. After all, wouldn't it only be typical for a cobbler revealed to deny her role?


It's also be typical for someone who's innocent to deny that claim, as well, Brinniel.

I can see defending myself is getting me nowhere. Fine, believe Rikae. Lynch me and see that I'm innocent, or wait for her to be alive tomorrow.

[The Saucepan Man]

Apologies one and all for my silence toDay. My other life has been diabolically hectic, and I have had been able to do little other than skim read the thread since I was last here and gain some kind of bearing on where we are. And so much has happened in the interim!

So, my two major suspects turn out to be the Seer and a confirmed innocent, and one of my other suspects has been lynched and shown to be innocent. A pretty typical start for me. :rolleyes:

Looks like I need a major rethink, and I’m not going to get much of a chance to do that toDay.

I must say that I am delighted that our Seer has been able to spot that confounded Tar-MiRoaiel before she sadly leaves us to join Lord Melkor. I don’t believe Roa’s protests for one moment (particularly as she was so quick herself to accept Rikae’s declaration when it came). Her mischaracterisation of my participation yesterDay was so breathtaking (to my mind, anyway) that I could not believe that there was no malice behind it. As I read through, I was coming round to the conclusion that she must be the Cobbler, since she has been behaving way to boldly for a Faithful, even by her standards. So thank you, Rikae, for saving me the bother of having to respond. And apologies for my vote yesterDay (although you did look mighty suspicious to me at the time – ah, the irony of Mith’s opening statement :( ).

One productive line of enquiry, it seems to me, will be to review Roa’s “handy dandy” analyses and see who she may have been trying to draw suspicion away from. For her instincts are good and she may have spotted a Faithful or two. It’s obviously not something to rely on, since she was no more knowledgable than the rest of us and could just as well have been wrong. After all, it seems pretty clear to me that she had Nogrod pegged as a Faithful, and she was clearly wrong there (as, indeed, was I). Still, it’s worth looking into. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that I will have much opportunity to do so toDay.

The more I see of Manwe, the more I am inclined to view him as innocent. His style does look strange sometimes, at first glance, but it seems to me that there is often good sense behind it. He looks to have been the only one really pressing Roa, at a time when she was in full flow and it was clearly needed. So, I still have an eye to those who were pushing him forward as a lynch candidate early yesterDay (although, then again, look where that idea got me with Rikae …).

Other than that, my brief review has left me with little to go on. The only thing that really stood out was how little some appear to have been saying in their posts. Other have noted this too, I believe. Hookbill in particular springs to mind here, but also Brinniel, Kitanna and Rune (whose capitulation to Roa’s analysis of him I found rather curious).

But I’m not sure that this is really enough to warrant a vote, particularly given the limited time that I have had available to review matters. I would rather vote for Roa (and, indeed, would take great delight in doing so :D), than risk lynching an innocent.

Oh and Gil, I tend to post in bursts because I cannot spend all Day reviewing and posting. My other life tends to inhibit me from doing so. At least I offer up more than a couple of lines ...

I will be back to vote, but I am not sure that my further participation toDay will stretch beyond that. Sorry.

[Brinniel]

Urgh...I really hate to be rushed, but I have to go, so I absolutely must cast a vote NOW.

Though I am still a bit suspicious of Hookbill, I do not want to vote him just quite yet. A little more observation is required.

Legate's posts seem to be careful...too careful. He seems to want to be on everyone's side, and as I stated before can't seem to find anyone suspicious to him. While I'm still not sure about him, I have no one else to go on and must vote:

++Legate

If I have time to look back before the Day is over (which I probably won't), I certainly will.

[Nogrod]

Another plus for voting Roa, is, if indeed she is the cobbler then we have eliminated a potential thorn in our side...however if she is innocent (I personally doubt it, I had reservations as Thin did over how 'useful' she was appearing.) Then it would be further proof that Rikae was lying to us. And if she were lying to us, well it would certainly look as if she were a faithful.

Would it not!?Now you're talkin' my fisherman! Even though I would hate to lose an innocent Roa - I really would - there is sense in this. I mean I first hesitated and was kind of agreeing with Rikae's suggestion that we do not waste our lynch on her toDay. But there is one problem there and it is as follows.

If we let Roa live and Rikae makes it through the Night, we can't say it is because she (Rikae) is a Faithful and has fooled us or because the wolves are bluffing us. And that in turn would mean both that we kill an innocent toDay with some pretty considerable probabilities and that we will be faced with real tough dilemmas toMorrow as to what to do, thus increasing the risk that our gifteds feel the need to reveal themselves...

Lynch me and see that I'm innocent, or wait for her to be alive tomorrow.As I said up above: we can't say. It's perfectly possible she's alive toMorrow whether we lynch you or not.

But a truly ingenious piece of work here! It occurs to me now, that the wolves may have actually attacked her (assuming she's Tar-Miriel, because it would be a foolish move for a Faithful at this point), not realizing that she was the cobbler in disguise, and the ranger may have truly protected her.I mean this is perfectly possible! But it sure is highly unprobable as well. If Rikae is a cobbler fighting for her life all Roa says is possible.

Even though what Roa says is perfectly possible I would also like to remind us - and myself the most - that bogging down in this issue and not hunting for the Faithfuls would be an excellent masterpiece of Cobblery, the very thing Roa is here suspected of!

I'll need to take a break from this question now anyhow as my brain hurts... :p

I'll be doing what I can next to look for any possible villains around here as I'm not having all the time on Day3 (alive, if I am then).

EDIT: X'd with Spm & Brinniel

[Roa_Aoife]

I don’t believe Roa’s protests for one moment (particularly as she was so quick herself to accept Rikae’s declaration when it came).

When there is a seer reveal in the last few moments of the day, I vote to save the supposed seer, based solely on the premise that if they are faking, it will soon be found out anyways. It's safer to save the "seer" and wait for the next Day than to start doubting all over again.

Unless ofcourse, no one believes you.

Her mischaracterisation of my participation yesterDay was so breathtaking (to my mind, anyway) that I could not believe that there was no malice behind it. As I read through, I was coming round to the conclusion that she must be the Cobbler, since she has been behaving way to boldly for a Faithful, even by her standards.

The only "malice" in that case was toward someone whom I still believe to be a Wolf, and I'm not surprised that you're only too happy to support Rikae. After all, it "saves you the inconvenience" of having to answer my accusations. How very convenient for you.

One productive line of enquiry, it seems to me, will be to review Roa’s “handy dandy” analyses and see who she may have been trying to draw suspicion away from.

At least those aren't getting ignored. If that was your plan, you failed, Rikae.

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod

[Kath]

OOC: Ok. Essay is done, internet is working, let's get down to some serious game playing!

Well, I was about to ask whether anyone else thought Roa was posting like a mad woman in order to put people off analysing her for some dastardly reason, and thanks to Rikae I have an answer! For all that some people have said we might as well leave her alive since she's not a Faithful I think it would be worth killing her. Firstly we're rid of a most confusing influence, and second the thread will get a good bit shorter!

Roa reviewed almost everyone before Rikae came out with her dream, but of course she has no more idea on who the wolves are than we do so I'm not sure how much help those will be. It is possible that those she thinks look more innocent may actually be Faithfuls thanks to Cobbler logic, but since she doesn't know for sure nor do we.

However, on Day 1 she did specifically say she thought Manwe was either Cobbler or Faithful, which I think clears him slightly. Roa's bold, but I'm not sure she'd be so bold as to add support to an already forming bandwagon if she thought he really might be a wolf. Not that early on in the game.

I have to admit that I skim read all of those long analyses today and so can't say anything about them yet. I'll go back and read them, see if they give me any ideas.

EDIT: Cross-posted with at least 3/4 people.

[Roa_Aoife]

Even though what Roa says is perfectly possible I would also like to remind us - and myself the most - that bogging down in this issue and not hunting for the Faithfuls would be an excellent masterpiece of Cobblery, the very thing Roa is here suspected of!


If you believed me, you'd have a baddie right now. And a second, because this is far too convenient for SPM. Maybe that was Rikae's plan- she knows SPM is a Faithful and wants to completely discredit my case against him. By the time you know she's lying, it will have been forgotten.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, seeing as I started crying when I read Kath's post, I think I'm getting way too worked up about this. I'm going to take a break for a little while. Ask questions of me, if you want. I'll answer them when I get back.

[Durelin]

Way to go Rikae!! With just two dreams, you have nailed the Cobbler. Though there are still four wolves out there, we finally might have a lead on something.

And dang...that's a lot of work for just a Cobbler. :p

I feel we have no reason to think that Rikae is not the Seer, though unfortunately I suppose we will find out for certain tomorrow. I suppose the best course of action is mostly ignoring Roa, though we should try and use her "suspicions" and non-suspicions of people as leads.

The most obvious person she has expressed faith in is Legate. But...this is Roa. Why would her analysis leave him that spotless if she thought he was a wolf? While it is entirely possible (double bluff sorta thing?), I don't see her having any reason to do it, anyway. It wasn't as if he was in need of protection. We certainly shouldn't ignore her "I like him" business in the long run, but I think right now we will *crosses fingers* have more luck going in a more middle direction. Perhaps it would be better to look at those she barely acknowledged, and those she more mildly "defended" or approved of.

Of course, I doubt we have much information. Such a talkative Cobbler is largely out to confuse. Except that her analyses make sense! Considering she does not know who the wolves are (unless...the wolves or Mod Mac don't get to tell her or hint at whether her list is accurate? The wolves see it, though, right? But I suppose that doesn't tell them anything for certain, either.), perhaps she even did an excellent analysis sealing the death of one of her comrades. Sounds like something I'd do as Cobbler...well, when I'm not going after SPM just for the heck of it. I should have noticed it earlier; her sarcasm and persistent accusations are quite like the kind of Cobbler I enjoy. Thank you, Roa, for the entertainment.

I have one little quibble for Lommy...

16. Durelin retrcats from Rikae and votes for Mänwe
Obviously because of Rikae's revelation. Has had somewhat vague suspicions about him before.

I didn't vote for Rikae. I voted for Manwe (as you stated before), then I switched to Garin. Maybe I should try retracting a vote to vote for someone again to see if anyone notices. ;)

Right now I feel like Hookbill, Brinniel, and Lommy all have a bit of a forced, edgy sort of feel to their posts (yes, I used "feel" twice. So lynch me.), but I definitely do not suggest they are all three wolves or even two of them are, though it's possible. I think Brinniel's vote for Legate, though it is far from baseless, is a very easy vote - with the revelation of Roa as the Cobbler, the easiest choice for a vote is in fact Legate simply for her praise of him. Perhaps it is that easy, and she was defending who she thought was a wolf...but even then there's no guarantee he is one. And right now, I don't have a feel for him.

Unfortunately I'm at school right now so I can only do a quick skim. I'll be back later, an hour before the deadline, to say more. Wish I could be back earlier, but...well, one more year of high school. :rolleyes: *dashes off to Latin class*

[the guy who be short]

A meta-analysis.

We have two known innocents. In addition, we have one known Tar-Miriel (surely you people are not serious about having doubts? A fake-seer lying about having seen Tar-Miriel is illogical).

I have put together their views concerning every villager, except for themselves, of course. (In the case of Roa, as she is working to undermine the village, remember to invert everything she says). I will then compare what these three people think about each villager. Let's see what happens:

Brinniel
Roa thinks Brinniel is "odd." I think she's largely undecided here.


Durelin
Roa seems to find her slightly suspicious, which means she probably thinks durelin is innocent.

Gil-Galad
Roa has no strong feelings, is slightly suspicious.

Glirdan
Nogrod is ever so slightly suspicious, but his feelings aren't strong.

the guy who be short
Roa seems to find me suspicious, though does not go as far as thinking I'm a Faithful. She probably thinks I'm innocent.
Nogrod worries that he agrees with everything I say. I think this means he's largely undecided on me.

Hookbill the Goomba
Roa seems to find him suspicious, but not so much as to call him a wolf. She probably think's he's an innocent.

Kath
Roa has no strong feelings, slightly suspicious.
Nogrod doesn't seem to have any strong feelings.

Kitanna
Roa suspects her to be Faithful, which probably means she think's Kitanna is innocent.

Lalaith
Roa suspects her, though not so far as to call her a wolf. She therefore probably finds Lalaith innocent.

Legate of Amon Lanc
Roa "likes" and "agrees" with everything he says. She says somebody else should analyze him because she feels too partial. This points to her thinking he is a Faithful.

Mänwe
Roa calls him suspicious, meaning she probably thinks he's innocent.
Nogrod thinks he is not a Faithful.
Rikae thinks he is suspicious.

Mithalwen
Roa has no strong feelings, she's slightly suspicious.

Rune Son of Bjarne
Roa seems to find him suspicious, which probably means she thinks he's innocent.

The Saucepan Man
Roa attacks him fiercely, meaning she thinks he's innocent.
Nogrod attacks him fiercely, he thinks SpM is a faithful.

Thinlómien
Rikae thinks she has a "faithful-ish vibe."
Roa thinks she seems quite innocent, meaning she probably thinks Thinlomien is Faithful.



Well. Some more views from Nogrod and Rikae would certainly help matters. The following names are only from people whom at least 2 of our known 3 characters have commented on. As it stands, these people look worst:
Lommy

These people look neutral:
TGWBS
Kath
Manwe
SpM

Dear Annatar! Everybody else comes under "not enough data." Nogrod and Rikae, please share your opinions on people. This type of meta-analysis can be very helpful, I feel.

[Nogrod]

Maybe that was Rikae's plan- she knows SPM is a Faithful and wants to completely discredit my case against him. By the time you know she's lying, it will have been forgotten.No. I've no intention of forgetting Spm and indeed his last post awoke pretty similar reactions in me as it seems to have aroused in you. But remember also my dear Roa, the way a good Cobbler works is by being reasonable as often as she can and I have no doubt that most that you did at least on Day1 was quite straightforward and open. What else could you have done not knowing the identities of the Faithfuls?

Trying to say then: I think it much more probable that you're a Cobbler than Rikae as so many things seem to fit. As I said, I admit it's not fool-proof and there is a chance it being the more improbable way.

But I'll try to think of other things for a while just to refresh my mind.

[Nogrod]

Dear Annatar! Everybody else comes under "not enough data." Nogrod and Rikae, please share your opinions on people. This type of meta-analysis can be very helpful, I feel.I'm coming and going for it... :) I just need a short break.

But you should remember that with Roa you can't just turn the things around that easily. I for one believe she actually thought Spm to be a faithful for instance. Remember what I said about the cobbler role in my last post before this.

[Mithalwen]

Just checking in ..seems I have a lot ot catch up on...

[The Saucepan Man]

I find the possibility that Rikae is lying and Roa telling the truth remote almost to the point of impossibility.

The only "malice" in that case was toward someone whom I still believe to be a Wolf, and I'm not surprised that you're only too happy to support Rikae. After all, it "saves you the inconvenience" of having to answer my accusations. How very convenient for you.Yes, how very convenient for me to have to acknowledge that, yet again, I have managed to vote for the Seer (and so contributed to her having to reveal herself). :rolleyes: And I am not going to answer accusations from one whom I firmly believe to be the Cobbler.

I am running out of time and, in view of the limited time that I have had available toDay, I am not prepared to cast my vote for somone who may well be innocent when I can cast it for someone that I am convinced is the Cobbler.

So, without further ado …

++ROA_AOIFE

[Lalaith]

This is so annoying, I have only just got home, and must go out again quite shortly. I only have time to skim-read the thread. But there is one basic fact we have to go on.
The wolves killed no-one last night.
The most likely scenario:
Rikae is, as she says, the seer, the ranger protected her and the wolves, gambling on a bluff by the ranger, tried and failed to kill her.
In this scenario, Roa must the Cobbler.

Other possible scenarios.
Rikae is a wolf. In this case the wolves must have decided not to kill anyone, in order to confuse the village. Is that even allowed under the rules? Very unlikely indeed.

Rikae is the cobbler. This is slightly more likely. The ranger would have protected her, thinking her the seer, and the wolves, also thinking her the seer, try to kill her. But why would Cobbler-Rikae say Roa was the Cobbler? Cobbler-Rikae does not know, any more than the rest of us, who is a wolf. So, if we then turn on Roa and kill her, and Roa turns out to be a wolf, the Rikae-Cobbler will have failed in her duty.

No, I find these scenarios too unlikely to be plausible. So, rather than risk killing an innocent, I will vote:
++ROA

[Mithalwen]

TGWBS .. I think it is over simplistic to say that if Roa (assuming she is Tar Miriel) casts suspicion on someone it means she thinks they are innocent. I am not a hundred percent on Rikae (After last time, couldn't be :rolleyes: ), but whatever Roa is she is subtle and has a strategic mind - bet she plays chess. My query about her statement was made with the awareness that there might be aspects of the matter that had bypassed me completely.

I don't know why you are so hung up on my first post.... sometimes the only useful thing an innocent can do is to toss balls in the air and see who reacts. In such a spirit I maintained my vote for Lalaith - I didn't deliberately fritter time - I had no watch and was misled by the time differences (the Downs and Computer were bith wrong :( ). I thought Garin was being himself and Manwe seemed new rather than guilty so ..... One of those things you can't completely win on - I was criticised for an "anyone to save Boro" vote last time ....

[Rikae]

Now you're talkin' my fisherman! Even though I would hate to lose an innocent Roa - I really would - there is sense in this. I mean I first hesitated and was kind of agreeing with Rikae's suggestion that we do not waste our lynch on her toDay. But there is one problem there and it is as follows.

If we let Roa live and Rikae makes it through the Night, we can't say it is because she (Rikae) is a Faithful and has fooled us or because the wolves are bluffing us. And that in turn would mean both that we kill an innocent toDay with some pretty considerable probabilities and that we will be faced with real tough dilemmas toMorrow as to what to do, thus increasing the risk that our gifteds feel the need to reveal themselves...If you kill Roa today, you're throwing away every advantage I've managed to give you. If the faithfuls did decide to bluff by leaving me alive until tomorrow, you could lynch me then and prove my identity, and you would have another dream. Of course, the faithfuls know that and won't leave me alive - which means tomorrow you will have two known "non-faithfuls" - Nogrod and Roa.
Roa counts as an innocent, and since she's been revealed, she can do no harm. My dreams will be verified soon enough.
Kill Roa and you lose one "known nonfaithful" and reduce your numbers by one. Kill someone else and you stand a chance of getting a faithful - or at least, you still have two you can remove from the list of possible faithfuls tomorrow, when I'm dead.
Feel free to disregard my advice, but I'm telling you, you're throwing away your advantage.
I'll read over the thread one more time and post my thoughts on everyone in a few minutes...

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I'm back and much calmer now. I do find it alarming that no is even really considering that Rikae may be lying. (I'm not surprised at SPM.) Come one, people, are you just going to blindly believe without even the slightest doubt? The worst thing a village can do in werewolf is to ignore a possibilty that someone is lying.

Rikae is the cobbler. This is slightly more likely. The ranger would have protected her, thinking her the seer, and the wolves, also thinking her the seer, try to kill her. But why would Cobbler-Rikae say Roa was the Cobbler? Cobbler-Rikae does not know, any more than the rest of us, who is a wolf. So, if we then turn on Roa and kill her, and Roa turns out to be a wolf, the Rikae-Cobbler will have failed in her duty.

The bolded part is what I truly believe happened, in which case the Faithful and Rikae couldn't be in a stringer position. Rikae has shown herself to be as bold as I am. Here's a possibilty that you seem to be ignoring: Tar-Rikae believes me innocent, and someone I've analyzed to be a Faithful. (I personally think it's SPM, who naturally voted for me ) She doesn't want anyone taking me seriously, so she accuses me of being the cobbler, to cripple a powerful innocent and detract the case.

And look at what's happening: SPM has jumped on it and imediately voted for me with such an air of finality that it seems anyone who might believe me will be instantly suspected for doing so. TGWBS is just going along and saying all my points must mean the opposite of what I really say, which plays perfectly into this plan. And while some are pointing out the folly in this, no one is doing anything about it.

And consider this: If I was really the cobbler, wouldn't I have tried to disprove the "seer" the moment she revealed? Or perhaps even claimed to be the ranger and say that I didn't really protect her? You might say that the real ranger would disprove it, or even the hunter, but that in itself would be doing a cobbler's job in forcing gifted to reveal. You say I'm acting like a cobbler, but you also admit that I'm more sly than people seem to think. Am I really acting any different than I normally do? If I were the cobbler, I'd have a much better plan than "mass confusion" going.

EDIT: crossed with Rikae

[Roa_Aoife]

Why am I not surprised, Rikae? Of course you don't want me lynched, it will prove you're lying.


I'm half tempted to vote myself just to thwart you.

[Mänwe]

People, what Rikae says is why I wrote my second 'plus' for killing Roa, if we kill Roa and she is innocent we know that Rikae is lying without doubt. Rikae telling us Roa is the Cobbler is a perfect chance to sort the mess out of, is she (Roa) a Cobbler, and is she (Rikae) the Seer.

I do not think we would be losing an advantage, Rikae has given us the greatest adavantage of all, and that is too accuse someone.

[Durelin]

Popping in again real quickly. Yay for classrooms with computers...

Rikae - You have good points about Roa being another know non-Faithful (if you're telling the truth...I know very well that there are no certainties in this game, but I also know that you have to go with what's most likely or you're stuck), I disagree that she can do no harm. She can still vote, and particularly once our numbers start decreasing more as they undoubtedly will with all four wolves left, one vote can make a big difference. Everyone even has one retractable, so anything can happen.


If I was really the cobbler, wouldn't I have tried to disprove the "seer" the moment she revealed?

You had no way to effectively disprove her until she shared what she knew. Wisely she waited to do so, and you did, too. The Cobbler's point isn't to commit suicide. You weren't going to stick your neck out that far.

Edit: Cross-posted with Manwe.

[the guy who be short]

Mith - That first post seemed very weird to me (and to several others). However, I can accept that anybody can make mistakes. Also, you say the sentence was rhetorical (which I didn't perceive). Most of the rest of what you say seems innocent to me, so I don't believe you're a Faithful. However, on day one you have to suspect whoever you can based on whatever evidence you have. There's sufficient additional information today for me, at least (and I believe I have been your most dedicated attacker) to turn my attention elsewhere.

Nogrod and Rikae - thanks for the (up-and-coming) info on your thoughts on everyone. I'll admit I don't know Roa very well. If people think she's that tricksy, I'll remove her from the meta-analysis and we can just see what Nogrod and Rikae think. I suppose interpretation of Roa's words can go either way - she could be speaking her mind or lying to lead us astray. Perhaps it's better to look at people she's simply avoided mentioning strong feelings about altogether: Glirdan, Brinniel, Gil-Galad, Kath and Mithalwen.

I'm having a look at Lommy next.

[Roa_Aoife]

Manwe, is right. If you kill me, you'll know she's lying. If you let me live, you won't know if she's alive tomorrow because she's evil, or because the faithful are bluffing. Of course, if you let me live, the faithful may kill her because they still believe she's telling the truth (possible, but not likely, in my opinion) and you'll see on the list of the dead that she is Tar-Miriel. Because you're all right in one sense- this is too bold for a wolf, especially so early in the game.

[Rikae]

Durelin -Seems to be engaging with all the issues that are brought up and sincerely trying to be helpful. Feels innocent.
Glirdan – Entirely confusing and little content. Can't get any impression of him at all – might be a good idea to eliminate him as an “unknown quantity” soon.

Gil-Galad – Basically, same assessment as Glirdan.
Kath – Advised me not to start conversations as a wolf in the last game – something she's been doing now. She seems not to be trying quite as hard, or playing as carefully, as she does when a wolf – but it's subtle enough I doubt it's a deliberate trick.
Kitanna – Safe – claims speechlessness, not really with much apparent reason – points out Glirdan's Glirdanishness. Seems very to be flying under the radar.
Lalaith – First post seems relaxed, in an innocentish way, and pointing out the foolishness of drawing attention to gifteds also strikes me as sincere.
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe – Attention drawing in a way that, in retrospect, seems like the sort of innocent that looks suspcious on a day one. However, the comment about worthless villagers disturbs me...but he kind of reminds me of an innocent Morm.
Mithalwen – Posting first tends to look innocent – as I'm sure “Faithfulwen” would be aware.

Initially pointing out that gifteds can look suspicious could easily be an attempt to make suspicious looking faithfuls seem like possible gifteds, plus, she mentions the cobbler prominently on a separate line – a technique I've used myself, as a wolf, to get the cobbler's attention.
Rune Son of Bjarne – Always seems the same to me, guilty or innocent. Isn't particularly standing out.
The Saucepan Man – Starts off telling everyone to speak, stating simple, safe, obvious things. Seems keen to lynch Roa, which is NOT in the village's interests, as I said.






Suspicious:

Mithalwen

TSM

Kitanna




Moderate:

Glirdan

Manwe

Rune

Gil







Not suspicious:

Kath

Lalaith

Duralin




I have to go - I'll look at the rest when I get back.

[Mithalwen]

Actually I am considering ...... and also because ..well there is something from Day 1 that is bothering me and Ican't just think of what and why but I feel that the Nogrod, Roa, SpM interraction is important.

Now of the 3 I thought Nogrod seemed quite unsuspicious. Now if Rikae is bluffing she may have thought he was a good choice to name as an innocent since although if she were wolf she would know the innocents a plausible choice would be best. Whatever Nogrod's actual status he has nothing to gain by denying it at this point.

SpM usually winds me up (I don't know if it is deliberate or just the automatic consequence of him being a Gemini lawyer like my elder sibling :rolleyes: ), so I don't know if I am just being oversensitive about his quibbling.

However if Rikae is lying, then wouldn't it have been more sensible to claim to be the hunter.... don't have to produce dreams and have a good reason for being left alone at night....

On the other hand if she IS the seer I don't see why, having made a "hit", and knowing she could not be protected again she didn't immediately reveal her dream.

Need to read back and time is getting short - and I don't think I am getting anywhere.

[Roa_Aoife]

You had no way to effectively disprove her until she shared what she knew. Wisely she waited to do so, and you did, too. The Cobbler's point isn't to commit suicide. You weren't going to stick your neck out that far.


The cobbler's point is to create confusion and keep wolves from getting lynched, even if it means getting themselves lynched in place of a wolf. There were few enough people about that I could have called her a liar, bumped her into the lead with my vote, and created enough confusion that everyone else would have been paralyzed to do anything. With out any contention at all, everyone was confused and unsure of what to do. Imagine if I had contested her claim with one of my own!

The next day, a lynched seer with no reveals, and one known cobbler, who most people would have voted for and lynched, and that's two days you don't catch a wolf. That would be a great move for a cobbler. I should know, I've been thinking of that possibility since my first game with Nogrod. And you obviously haven't played with me very much, because I would definitely put my neck out like that. I have before, and I wouldn't hesitate to do it again.

[the guy who be short]

Re: Lynching Roa, I'm with Rikae on this. Killing the cobbler means not killing a potential wolf. Perhaps if our numbers were smaller, killing her would be a priority.

However, we are 18, of whom 2 are known innocents and one is Tar-Miriel. Our numbers can more than absorb Roa's one vote.

I think it would be benficial to go for a different villager. Nobody is taking Roa seriously because her argument makes no sense. When Rikae dies tonight, Roa will be proven to be the cobbler. Perhaps it will be interesting to see how she reacts. She will be in a very difficult position. She will be unable to sow confusion - her main role. She will be unable to serve her Faithful masters effectively because she won't be able to encourage people to vote for whoever she thinks is innocent - we wont trust her. And she wont be able to follow the village and vote for somebody who she thinks is Faithful, because that will kill one of her precious masters.

[Mänwe]

Rikae, I would like to point out I was not the one that made the 'worthless villager' post.

~~~

tgwbs, I see your reasoning here, but do you not think to kill Roa and see what she really is would prove without a doubt whether Rikae was the seer...don't forget by your own reasoning, we will lose the Seer this evening, and so gain no more benefit from her.

Killing Roa and finding out what she is would prove without doubt whether Rikae is the Seer or not. It's a win win situation in a way, for if Rikae is not a Seer than we can kill her, with a certain knowledge she is either the actual Cobbler or Faithful thats if she does not die tonight. If she dies tonight then we have lost her, a possible Seer. But we knew we had lost her when she revealed herself yesterday.

Though there is the chance of one more dream...which if she isn't the Seer proven by whether Rao is the Seer would no doubt just be another lie. I'm starting to think that Roashould be the one to die....

Edited with tgwbs

[Mithalwen]

Mithalwen – Posting first tends to look innocent – as I'm sure “Faithfulwen” would be aware.

.


LOL I find quite the reverse - in my first games the first posters turned out to be wolves which was the reason I nearly just went home to bed on Sunday night. However because I believe you should participate as much as you can and I knew I would be limited, I started things off. If I were a wolf I would have kept quiet and not drawn attention to myself . However as an ordo, I believe the more discussion the better. I generated discussion far more than by some "in char RPG"psot customary for early posts that may be amusing but are seldom enlightening......

And I am not a wolf so please do not play around with my name. I really find it annoying when people do that....

[Nogrod]

Back again and the game is just getting better! :cool:

Good thing Rikae that you remembered that a Cobbler is counted as an innocent in the final counts! I had totally forgotten it. But Durelin also has a point. Especially in a game in a village that might still have some less informed villagers (those who can't bother to read what other people say) in their ranks an informed cobbler could be devastating. tgwbs is right that we can absorb one Cobbler now, but if the going gets tougher - fex. if we don't get some Faithfuls soon - then we'd had much harder situation to get rid of her...

So I must say I'm turning more and more to lynching Roa despite her brave effort. I mean there are some rewards to be gained with it.

And even without any extra-rewards the setting get clearer / lots of information starts to make sense. If Rikae is right which I see more likely then we've gotten rid of a potentially dangerous cobbler from the endgame and not lynched an innocent. If Rikae bluffs and Roa was an innocent, we know she'll be our Cobbler (or possibly although not probably our Faithful) and we can lynch her when we see it fit (if she bluffs I suggest we get the Pan man first).

Also we'll be having a host of other information from toDay to chew toMorrow too.

I'll try to make a summary now but will follow the discussion...

EDIT: X'd with Mänwe & Mith

[Mithalwen]

Just to make you aware that it seems Hookbill will also be leaving us. Unless he happens to be a wolf then we have "absorbed" 3 innocents in one day. You can't rely on a ranger save ... lynching the cobler for peace of mind might be an expensive luxury.

[Nogrod]

Just thought of reminding us with this as I had kept this in my Word...

Gil - > Spm
Lommy - > tgwbs
Brinniel - > Legate
Spm - > Roa
Lalaith - > Roa (Spm1, tgwbs1, Legate1, Roa2)

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I still think it would be best to leave Roa be today.
Even though I got a way better feel about Legate today he is the only one with a vote that I find suspiciouse and now Lommy will ask why I don't build a strong case around one of my other suspects then. . .the answer is: Because I don't have a strong case. But if I was not to vote Legate, I would probably go for Brinniel.

++Legate

[Kath]

We have something of a dilemma here. To lynch Roa or not to lynch Roa. Let's have a look at the possibilities:

1) We lynch Roa and find that she is the Cobbler, thus proving Rikae to be the Seer and Nogrod an innocent.

2) We lynch Roa and find that she is innocent, thus proving Rikae is not the Seer and Nogrod is unknown.

3) We do not lynch Roa and Rikae is killed toNight and found to be either the Seer (proving Roa's guilt) or not (disproving Roa's guilt).

4) We do not lynch Roa and Rikae is not killed toNight, meaning that nothing is certain and we spend the whole of tomorrow arguing the same point.

Now, for the most part I am inclined to think that option 1 is the best. However, on a re-read through just now I noticed something TGWBS said:

although I thought the Seer would see the Cobbler as an innocent
This was something I had forgotten. I know this was the case in previous games but it is possible that Mac had changed the rule here.

With the 'lynch Roa' options we do at least get some facts. We'll know if Rikae is the Seer or not. The problem there is that the second we have confirmation the wolves will kill her anyway. However, if we do not lynch Roa the wolves may well leave Rikae alive toNight in order that the village stays stuck on determining the roles of those two tomorrow. There are enough villagers around that it is more likely Rikae will dream of an ordinary villager than of a wolf so the danger is not that great for them.

Basically, lynching Roa, whatever she turns out to be, looks to be the best option for the good of the village. The only way that changes is if she is Gifted. We need to know whether Rikae is the real Seer or not or we're going to be relying on false information for the rest of the game. We could lynch Nogrod in an attempt to prove or disprove her claim, but there are many innocents and only one Cobbler.

So, unless Roa suddenly reveals herself as Gifted my vote will stand as:

++ROA

EDIT: Apologies, had an erroneous possibility.

[Roa_Aoife]

If the faithfuls did decide to bluff by leaving me alive until tomorrow, you could lynch me then and prove my identity, and you would have another dream.

Despite everyone ignoring, I'd thought I'd help by pointing this out. While, despite Durelin's claim, a cobbler can be suicidal, a seer never should be. To just accept getting lynched when you could keep living and providing dreams isn't very seeresque at all. In fact, it's the seer's job to live as long as possible. For her claims, she's not trying very hard to stay alive.

Though I'm sure everyone will just skip over this and ignore as they keep doing. If this continues much more, I may just withdraw from the game- there's certainly no point in sticking around now.

[Roa_Aoife]

2) We lynch Roa and find that she is the Seer as she claimed in post, thus proving Rikae is not the Seer and Nogrod is unknown.

So, unless Roa suddenly reveals herself as Gifted my vote will stand as:

I never claimed to be the seer. I only claimed to be innocent, which is what I am. You seem to mighty confused on your points, Kath. First I claim to be the seer, and then I've yet to claim any giftedness at all.

[Kath]

Roa, even if you are innocent, the only way we can know that and therefore lynch Rikae tomorrow is if you die or the real Seer (if Rikae is lying) dreams of you, reveals and clears you.

The second option will take Days to put into practice as a Seer not in danger of being lynched would not reveal for a mere innocent. In that case we would probably spend Days arguing over this, and so missing the opportunity to lynch actual wolves. Sometimes an innocent has to allow themselves to be lynched for the good of the village. It's hard to stomach and feels extremely unfair but it can lead to victory.

Yes I'm sorry about the Seer thing, as I said, an erroneous statement. I've corrected it. You said somewhere that there would be two roles known if we believed you and I simply assumed that meant you'd dreamt of them. I misread.

[Kitanna]

My time is limited for the moment and anything I could or would say appears to have been said already.

I have missed so much and I had something to say about Roa and Rikae. But how fast an idea can change. Here's something that is bothering me and rereading the rules has not helped. I'm guessing if the seer dreams of the cobbler their role is revealed as cobbler. It has not been that way before and the rules say nothing of such a scenario.

what to do with Roa now. I agree it would be better to let her go, she cannot do much if we don't heed to her advice, or can she?
A lot of damage can be done the longer a cobbler is kept alive.

I am a bit unsettled by this whole Rikae-seer/ Roa-Cobbler thing. As I started reading I today's posts I was willing to accept Rikae's innocence as seer and I also believed Roa was innocent. However, in light of Rikae revealing Roa I feel a shadow of doubt creeping over my mind.

Here's what gets me and makes me doubt somethings. Rikae thinks we should let Roa be.

I could understand this if Rikae knew one wolf, but she knows the cobbler and an innocent. Why suggest not voting for Roa when we have a non-innocent/ non-gifted that can turn the tide in favor of the faithfuls?

I wouldn't waste today's lynch on Roa, if I were you
later
If you kill Roa today, you're throwing away every advantage I've managed to give you.
I realize how bad this is for me to even dare to say this, but if Rikae is the seer she is giving us horrible advice. Even if we don't listen to Roa, keeping her alive today, or maybe even tomorrow, will only be more dangerous for the village. Roa is most likely going to die anyway, but Rikae telling us not to "waste" our votes on Roa disturbs me. If Roa is not innocent we need to eliminate her from the game.

Roa's latest posts scream of last ditch efforts and it is most likely true she's the cobbler. However, I cannot understand why Rikae would advise against the village voting for Roa. I just can't wrap my mind around that. At the end of today and as Day 3 begins all this confusion will be cleared up.

If Roa dies a cobbler, Rikae is the proven seer and dies in the night. We're out a dream, but we have killed the one non-faithful who could cost the village innocents a victory.
If Roa should die an innocent, Rikae is most likely faithful/cobbler and will survive the night only to be lynched.

I realize pretty much everything I just said is all over the place and at this moment I can't really clarify things. I also know I've put myself in a dangerous spot.

The last thing I have to say is getting rid of Roa is probably the best course of action. Her lose of her calm and collected manner makes me think Rikae is most likely telling us the truth and her words should be heeded.

However, I don't like the fact Rikae doesn't want us to waste our votes on Roa. I've seen a cobbler ensure werewolf victory and it is best to get rid of the cobbler as soon as possible. I only have a little doubt that Rikae is our seer, but that little doubt is keeping me from deciding where to vote. I will most likely vote Roa, but I'll wait and see.

[Macalaure]

I know this was the case in previous games but it is possible that Mac had changed the rule here.
Given some of the powers of Sauron, his High Priest sees all.

edit: I have only once been in a game where seers dreaming of cobblers was an issue, and there the seer could identify her/him. Therefore I thought it'd be clear. :o

[Roa_Aoife]

You're right, it would make it easier if I died, but I'm not upset about that. Werewolf is a game where you could end up dead at any moment. I'm upset because everyone is disregarding me as lying out of hand, and it seems they aren't even really considering the possibility that Rikae is lying, despite it being my word against hers right now. Frankly, that hurts. I can understand not trusting me- I wouldn't either- but this blind trust in Rikae is more than alarming, it's down right insulting!

As I've said, my death will prove Rikae is lying (hence why she is so resistant to the idea.) I've discouraged the real seer from coming forward, becuase one innocent isn't wirth it with so many of us to burnm through. And since, you won't even consider that I'm telling the truth until I'm dead:

++Roa Aoife

Heck, if everyone changes their vote to me, we can have the first unanimous lynch in WW history. (A small dream of mine. ;) ) I'm done contributing, and if everyone thinks my death is for the good of the village, who am I to argue.

[Nogrod]

Here's a duo I have some suspicions about, even though not so much as to wish to vote for either of them toDay. They're some of those I think we should watch more.

Lommy I thought a bit suspicious the first Day and when she started this Day throwing straws at me again I started worrying about her in full. But after doing some rereading I can't see her as my top suspect. But I'm a bit weary on her.

The one thing that striked me was the way she has handled Mänwe. She was one, alongside someone else (I can't recall whom) to contend that Mänwe even though weird spoke a lot of sense / had good points (this on halfway on Day1!). This was something I just couldn't believe then and still find it hard to understand (sorry Mänwe).

But that's not all to it. In her analysis of the voting reasons Lommy seems to give everyone voting Mänwe somewhat disputable or nonexistent reasons while she sees the trouble to find a host of reasons for Mänwe to have voted me (I think a lot more than Mänwe himself ever produced!)

So is she somehow trying to softly cover him?

So Mänwe is a second one I'm a bit at loss with. Partly due to this Lommy-connection. I thought he would make a too bold wolf and as there seems to be Cobbler candidates more than enough around toDay I'm not sure. Not the least because toDay, I think, he has been a lot more reasonable. Of course he might have received some instructions last Night from his pals...

[Mithalwen]

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh I have just been refreshing a completed page.... but then noone takes any notice of me either..... Don't you realise how short of innocents we are going to be.... Roa is either an innocent or a cobbler which counts as an innocent for victory. If she is a cobbler and known, she is neutralised.

I don't think we can afford to kill her with 3 players gone voluntarily and Glirdan looking iffy......

[Roa_Aoife]

Give it up, Mith. They aren't going to listen. They believe they can asorb the loss of three innocents (Myself and the kill of the night, and Hookbill, if he goes) and still be prepared to face four wolves. Since they all seem to trust Rikae, they're also gambling the loss of their seer. At which point, they'd be at 11 to 4, with only two gifteds. Of course, seeing as their wrong, they'll be at 10 -5, albiet with their seer still alive. (Assuming that the seer isn't the innocent killed tonight.) Who was it that was trying to say the village could asorb that loss?