Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Meneltarmacil]

Far to the east of the known world lies a great mountain range. In these mountains, a village may be found in one of the numerous valleys. It is a small village, as villages go, and generally a peaceful place.

However, that all changed when they arrived. People, they say, who took the form of villagers by day, while transforming into savage, bloodthirsty wolves by night. Every morning, the villagers could generally count on waking up to death.

Did the villagers ever stop these vicious beasts? That remains to be seen...

Welcome to the latest in Werewolf. Not a lot of explaining to do on the part of roles, except as follows:

No entirely new roles have been invented. There may be a few variations on old ones, though.

The villagers post by Day, and vote for whomever should be lynched. Whoever has the most votes will be killed off at the end of each Day. Votes should be posted like this:

++Nilpaurion Felagund

No retractable votes or multiple lynchings in this game. If there is a tie for most votes, I'll randomly determine the single lynchee by rolling a 20-sided die.

The game ends when the number of wolves equals the numbers of the villagers and overwhelm them. If Lovers exist, they have to be the only ones remaining at the end of the game to win. In the case of a Werebear, he/she wins if the Bear and one villager are left alive at the end. If it's a Bear and the wolves, the wolves win. For a Bear and one Wolf, the outcome is random. I hope I've made that clear.

The Day/Night transition will take place at 5:00 PM Eastern time. I was about an hour and 45 minutes late here, mostly due to connection issues.

Alive:

Brinniel (Clumsy blacksmith)
Gil-Galad (Wild Bandito)
Glirdan (Gibbering local hermit who suffers from insomnia)
Legate of Amon Lanc (Uruk chieftan in retirement)
Macalaure (Ninja Wizard)
Mithalwen (Potter)
Meneltarmacil (Time traveler from the future)
Nogrod (Well-known nincompoop-miller who always thinks he's right)
Rikae (Anachronistic motion capture actor)
Roa_Aoife (Innkeeper)
the guy who be short (Baker)
The Sixth Wizard (Magician who is Lousy and Rubbish)
Thinlómien (Goat farmer)
xyzzy (Traveling Merchant)

Night 1 has started.

[Meneltarmacil]

(Note: Please activate Invisible Mode if you have not already done so.)

The villagers awoke as the day dawned.

Glirdan, gibbered to himself as he tried to go to sleep by counting Thinlomien's goats (there weren't any sheep around, so this was the best he could do).

The guy who be short tried to find out why Nogrod hadn't processed enough grain for his bakery, but wound up getting insults instead.

Xyzzy was not making a lot of progress in his attempts to sell his wares to Legate of Amon Lanc, who kept demanding disgusting things like "man flesh." To add insult to injury, Gil-Galad swiped some of the merchant's goods behind his back.
Meanwhile, Brinniel tried to make a set of bread knives for the baker, but wound up hitting her fingers with the hammer instead.

A wizards' duel had broken out in the street. The Sixth Wizard tried to shield himself against Macalaure's martial arts attacks, but only managed to turn his own wand into a chicken dinner.

Rikae was rather confused by all this, wondering where the studio was.

As Mithalwen worked on another pot, she suddenly heard a scream, as did the others. They ran to the source of the cry, and found Roa_Aoife up at Meneltarmacil's house. They shuddered when they saw it.

Underneath the stuffed head of the Tyrannosaurus rex which the Time Traveler had killed using a high-frequency laser rifle from the year 2378, in front of the fireplace, Meneltarmacil, or rather, what was left of him, lay. Several dirty paw prints could be seen around the area.

"Werewolves," Legate of Amon Lanc said. "They must have devoured him during the night."

"We'd better prepare for the worst," Macalaure added. "This village is in trouble."

Alive:
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Roa_Aoife
the guy who be short
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien
xyzzy

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Devoured by wolves on Night 1

Thus begins Day 1. You may commence posting.

[Glirdan]

What ho? Menel's dead?? So THAT was the sound I heard last night.....stupid insomnia keeping me up all night......

Hey, where'd those goats go? I need sleep.....Maybe I should go get a pound of knives from that crazy Brinniel person.....Or get those wizard type people to perform acrobatic feats for my amusement....yes....

Wait...What? Where am I? Did you hear all that?? Stupid gibbering inducing insomnia.....I think I said that wrong.....Let's try it again. Stupid nductin ib bering somniain.....I need sleep...... I'm gonna go count the petals on that tree if you need me.....

[Rikae]

Wait - we've started already? Sorry...hang on *struggles with lycra suit* *hops on one foot* *collapses in a heap*.

There are thirteen of us; one is a CGI character who does everything I do. All I have to do is find out who it is, and I'll have a known innocent...

*runs around on all fours, barking like a dog*

ooops, maybe not the best choice...

*imitates a cat coughing up a hairball*

...nothing...

oh well, it was worth a try.

[Gil-Galad]

oy... this no good at all man...

this bad time, panic is a big no-no


Quero Menel...

[Roa_Aoife]

*sigh* I was afraid of this. If I ever mod a game of werewolf, there will be no occupations, etc.

We have 13 people, so I highly doubt that Menel put more than 3 wolves into the mix. On the other hand, that doesn't exclude a wearbear or a cobbler. Personally, the issue means nothing to me, as we'll know soon enough if there is a werebear (by the number of kills ToNight) and a cobbler, while dangerous, is not a pressing matter until later in the game. Lovers can be as much of a danger to the wolves as us, so that can be left until later as well.

We don't know if we have a seer, hunter, or ranger, or what rules have been applied to them if they are in the game (do they know each other, can they communicate with each other, etc.) We must be extremely wary of people who come out as gifteds at any point in the game, because without knowing what we have, it would be easy for a wolf to use that as a cover. So, even if a gifted proclamation goes uncontested, it's posible that the role isn't even in the game. Gifteds, if there are any, will need proof greater than a lack of contest if they plan on revealing. Fortunately, this could be an even greater risk for the wolves, seeing as they don't know if they will be contested or not.

We could also have a mythomaniac, cursed, or birthday dreamer. The mythomaniac and the birthday dreamer could be good as easily as they could be evil, so we should let that issue be. We don't know if we have a ranger though, so if we go a night with out a kill, we cannot assume that a person was protected.

So, with that out of the way, we can stop worrying about roles which might not even be here, and just focus on catching wolves. We have no way of knowing what's out there until we lynch them or the wolves (and whatever else) kill them. (And if I've left out a role, I apologize, but I've probably never encountered it before.)


A wizards' duel had broken out in the street.

I didn't know Gurthang was in this game. :p

[Rikae]

*sigh* I was afraid of this. If I ever mod a game of werewolf, there will be no occupations, etc.
More's the pity. :p

We must be extremely wary of people who come out as gifteds at any point in the game, because without knowing what we have, it would be easy for a wolf to use that as a cover. So, even if a gifted proclamation goes uncontested, it's posible that the role isn't even in the game. Gifteds, if there are any, will need proof greater than a lack of contest if they plan on revealing. Fortunately, this could be an even greater risk for the wolves, seeing as they don't know if they will be contested or not.
This doesn't sit right with me. The fact is, a hunter, a ranger or a seer who's only dreamed of innocents won't have any such proof to offer, as I'm sure you know: I'd still prefer they come forward rather than be lynched! I'm not sure I like the way Roa advocates mistrust toward revealed gifteds with one breath, and points out that claiming giftedness would be a risky strategy for wolves with the next.

We could also have a mythomaniac, cursed, or birthday dreamer.
I've never heard of a birthday dreamer. What is it?

[Glirdan]

Roa
We must be extremely wary of people who come out as gifteds at any point in the game, because without knowing what we have, it would be easy for a wolf to use that as a cover. So, even if a gifted proclamation goes uncontested, it's posible that the role isn't even in the game. Gifteds, if there are any, will need proof greater than a lack of contest if they plan on revealing. Fortunately, this could be an even greater risk for the wolves, seeing as they don't know if they will be contested or not.

Rikae
This doesn't sit right with me. The fact is, a hunter, a ranger or a seer who's only dreamed of innocents won't have any such proof to offer, as I'm sure you know: I'd still prefer they come forward rather than be lynched! I'm not sure I like the way Roa advocates mistrust toward revealed gifteds with one breath, and points out that claiming giftedness would be a risky strategy for wolves with the next.

I'd have to agree with the actor person there, Rikae. There's something about that there....uhhh....let me check my hand for her name....uh....Brinnel..no....Mith...noooooo.....Gi l...nuhuh.....Glirdan....THAT'S ME! :D What am I going to have for breakfast??? OOO!! Butterfly....pretty.....

What?? OH!! Right....about Roa!! Ya, that's the one. There's something bout that one there that doesn't sit right at all. No it doesn't. Too inconsistent with her....her idea's? No...her thoughts!! Ya....I want sleep.....

I agree that at this point it would be risky for them there Gifteds to proclaim themsleves. But who in their right mind would do that at this point unless they were on the verge of being lynched? So why even bring up the idea that the Gifteds should remain hidden when we all know that they will and they already have that set in their minds? It's....ummm....confusing....and....umm....unnervi ng what she said. Ya, that's what it is....Look at that flower!! It's pretty.....

Rikae
I've never heard of a birthday dreamer. What is it?

Birthday what? Dreamer what?

[Roa_Aoife]

This doesn't sit right with me. The fact is, a hunter, a ranger or a seer who's only dreamed of innocents won't have any such proof to offer, as I'm sure you know: I'd still prefer they come forward rather than be lynched! I'm not sure I like the way Roa advocates mistrust toward revealed gifteds with one breath, and points out that claiming giftedness would be a risky strategy for wolves with the next.

Normally, when someone comes out as a gifted, we don't know if they're telling the truth or not, and all we have is that no one else is saying "No, they're lying- it's really me!" In this game, we don't know if we even have gifted, let alone being able to tell if a "revealed gifted" is lying or not. Remember- we don't have retractable votes this game. There won't be a last minute turn around or sudden random bandwagon. At least, such an occurance is highly unlikely. If someone is feeling pressure, gifted or wolf alike, they would have to do something well before the last minute. A gifted being suspected may choose to not risk waiting it out. At the same time, a wolf may do the same, banking on the fact that the pretended role may not even really exist. Yes, it would be risky for them to do so, but far less risky, since we don't know what we have and what we don't. The wolves may be planning on using that to their advantage, and I wanted to make sure that everyone was aware of it and on the look out.

Gifteds, if they are in this game, will just have to be more clever than that.

I've never heard of a birthday dreamer. What is it?

In my understanding, a birthday dreamer gets one dream on a pre-ordained Night phase. As to whether they become the role of the person they dream of, or merely learn the identity of the person, I'm not clear on.

Glirdan, you jumped on Rikae's single point and appear to be trying to turn this into something much greater.

What?? OH!! Right....about Roa!! Ya, that's the one. There's something bout that one there that doesn't sit right at all. No it doesn't. Too inconsistent with her....her idea's? No...her thoughts!! Ya....I want sleep.....

Inconsistent? How?

I agree that at this point it would be risky for them there Gifteds to proclaim themsleves. But who in their right mind would do that at this point unless they were on the verge of being lynched? So why even bring up the idea that the Gifteds should remain hidden when we all know that they will and they already have that set in their minds? It's....ummm....confusing....and....umm....unnervi ng what she said. Ya, that's what it is....Look at that flower!! It's pretty.....

I think you've misunderstood me entirely, or else you are intentionally misrepresenting my post. I said we shouldn't immediately believe someone who claims to be a hunter, for example, especially when we don't even know if there is a hunter. And as I pointed out to Rikae, there are no retractable votes this game. A gifted could not afford to wait until the last minute, and niether could a wolf if they wanted to use that strategy. I did not say "Gifteds should definitely not reveal," I said "Villagers should be aware that the wolves will find it a great deal easier to pose as gifteds in this village." (Paraphrased.)

Glirdan, role playing is all well and fun, but I'm bothered when people use it to cover accusations or make them look less serious, and that's what your post looks like to me. That combined with the way you jumped on Rikae's point is making you look very suspicious indeed.

[The Sixth Wizard]

Curse Macalaure and his pointy stars! I was just about to turn him into a toad, I'm sure of it!

Do you think the mystery surrounding this game will help the wolves in the long run? Reading all this, perhaps they will go for some drastic reverse-psychology as well. Do the complete opposite of what you just said! Wow, Werewolf is more confusing than I thought!

Must retire to ponder these thoughts. . .
(The Sixth Wizard pulls out a crystal ball, which promptly falls apart, and he grumbles and sticks more stickytape on the top)

Glirdan, role playing is all well and fun, but I'm bothered when people use it to cover accusations or make them look less serious, and that's what your post looks like to me. That combined with the way you jumped on Rikae's point is making you look very suspicious indeed.

I can assure you I'm not doing such a thing to confuse you, unlike Glirdan, who may well be a bad guy.

[Roa_Aoife]

Wow, Werewolf is more confusing than I thought!

You have no idea....... :rolleyes:

I can assure you I'm not doing such a thing to confuse you, unlike Glirdan, who may well be a bad guy.

I understand the fun of it, and I've indulged myself from time to time. It's when people thread accusations with such in-character posting that my suspicions are piqued.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm off to bed. I'll be on again to vote in about 9-10 hours, before I leave for work. Hopefully people will be more active by then. Come on people, a village needs noise!

Right now, Glirdan looks the most suspicious to me, but seeing as almost 2/3 of the village haven't even shown up yet, that's not saying much.

[Brinniel]

Well, I'm sorry I didn't post immediately, but as you must realize, it can be rather difficult to type with bruised fingers. Ow... *rubs her swollen fingers*

Anyways, Day One seems to be the most difficult of days to make judgements. I can't really find anyone suspicious right now, especially when I haven't heard from very many yet. Hopefully, when I return tomorrow there will be plenty of new posts.

This whole mysterious roles thing could be...err...rather interesting. I'm certainly hoping Sixth Wizard is wrong and it won't become an advantage to the wolves in the long run. Hmm...I'm actually not sure whose advantage this will be to, if anyone at all. We'll just have to see how it plays out. But as Roa stated earlier, it is probably best we don't worry about all these mystery roles and focus lynching a wolf toDay. With that said, let us get started and begin posting people!

I can't wait up any longer and most definitely need my rest. If all goes well, this thread should at least be on page 2 by the time I return. Until later...

*attempts to get up out of chair, but somehow manages to trip over it. Brinn then falls in the most ungraceful manner taking the chair down with her*

*gets up, again ungracefully, and places chair upright*

Don't worry about me...I'm okay... :rolleyes:

[The Sixth Wizard]

Well people, it's 6:30pm for me over here in Melbourne, and I really can't stay on the computer for much longer. If no-one has posted by my 7:00pm I'm afraid I shall have to vote anyway, as I don't really hold with the notion of getting up at 7:00am on my school holidays. :p

[Thinlómien]

I'm here and unfortunately must leave within an hour. (See admin thread.) Damn the lack of net access. :( Fortunately I will be able to post more in the Days to come (if I'm still alive).

~*~

I don't understand this attack against Roa. I think she speaks sense and I don't find myself suspecting her... (See Roa? Someone's inclined to trust you this early... bad for your fame... :p)

Rikae? She seems pretty innocent too. To me it seems she just misunderstood Roa.

Glirdan then... he's the one to turn heads this morning... and for a reason. His jump to support Rikae's feeble-ish accusations so early is like an example from the classic Spot-a-Wolf -book. He seems suspicious to me, yet I wonder if a wolf'd be this... obvious. Anyway, there's nothing out of his character, but if I recall correctly, this has been the case with all glirdanes whether innocent or guilty. So the point of this ramble? :rolleyes: He is suspicious, but I'm not sure if he's guilty. I don't like making very hasty decisions. However, if further rereads bring nothing new or nothing that wakes my suspicions happens while I'm still around, I'll be voting him.

Brinn? Sixth? Gil? No idea, you can't tell much from their posts.

The others? Even less idea about them silent ones.

[Macalaure]

We have 13 people, so I highly doubt that Menel put more than 3 wolves into the mix. On the other hand, that doesn't exclude a wearbear or a cobbler.I doubt we have a werebear. Remember this would mean two kills per night! We wouldn't stand a chance...

And that's as much as I am going to speculate about what roles we have and what roles we don't. I highly doubt such speculation will get us anywhere. They will only distract us from looking for wolves. Beware of those who try to discreetly encourage such discussions without taking active parts in them!


Well, it's still early in the game and there is little to be said concerning wolves. The only one who raises one of my eyebrows is Glirdan. His claim that Roa is inconsistent looks a bit bad. The way he mainly takes up and simplifies Rikae's point gives the impression of a wolf trying to launch a 'suspicion bandwaggon', hoping others will join it while the wolves watch idly and unnoticed.

Nothing more to say at the moment.

[Thinlómien]

Yes, Glirdan seems quite taking Rikae's point - which was not an accusation in my opinion - and turning it to an accusation while trying to make it seem that Rikae's with him there... Looks quite bad...

And Mac and Roa seem to be taking the "don't do like I do, do as I say"-attitude to discussing the roles... ;) However I agree with them we shouldn't speculate them too much. Maybe tomorrow, or later, but not now when we have no evidence (eg. what happens during the night, no "proper" narrations...).

[Thinlómien]

++GLIRDAN

He looks quite bad.
(Though possibly he looks too bad to be a real baddie. :rolleyes: )

I must say that the evidence against him is in a way quite feeble (at this phase of the day) - I would love to hear Glirdy explaining his actions or responding to the accusations against him in some way, for one, and it's never wise to judge on the basis of only a few posts - but I'm going to vote him because he simply seems clearly the most suspicious of those who have posted this far.
I hope I'll have more to go on with my future votes.

It's a bye-bye from me for toDay...

[The Sixth Wizard]

Well, a few people at least think that Glirdan is a Werewolf, perhaps this means a cobbler is not involved here? And I tend to agree that he is suspicious. I need to get off the computer now, so...

++Glirdan .

Sorry mate if you are innocent, whereas if you are guilty ...

DEATH TO YOU! :mad: :eek:

[Glirdan]

Okay, roleplaying over for me for now.

Roa
I think you've misunderstood me entirely, or else you are intentionally misrepresenting my post. I said we shouldn't immediately believe someone who claims to be a hunter, for example, especially when we don't even know if there is a hunter. And as I pointed out to Rikae, there are no retractable votes this game. A gifted could not afford to wait until the last minute, and niether could a wolf if they wanted to use that strategy. I did not say "Gifteds should definitely not reveal," I said "Villagers should be aware that the wolves will find it a great deal easier to pose as gifteds in this village." (Paraphrased.)

And now I am clear. I was actually a litte befuddled by what you had posted which made me leery(sp?) of you. Sorry for jumping down your throat.

Now I am quite disturbed by Sixth's and Lommy's votes for me.

Lommy
I must say that the evidence against him is in a way quite feeble (at this phase of the day) - I would love to hear Glirdy explaining his actions or responding to the accusations against him in some way, for one, and it's never wise to judge on the basis of only a few posts - but I'm going to vote him because he simply seems clearly the most suspicious of those who have posted this far.
I hope I'll have more to go on with my future votes.

She first votes for me. Then she goes on to say that the evidence is feeble ad that she would like to hear my response but is votingon my because I'm the most suspicious when almost 1/3 of the players have not voted yet. Now, I take into account her time zone problem as that is why I myself have to vote now.

However, I'm not as disturbed by her vote as I am by Sixth's.

Sixth
Well, a few people at least think that Glirdan is a Werewolf, perhaps this means a cobbler is not involved here? And I tend to agree that he is suspicious.

Voting for me on the pure fact that a few people are suspicious of me and that he agrees I'm suspicious. Alright and dandy. But no explanation as to why I'm suspicious? That worries me. Sure it's a Day1, but if you yourself are suspicious of someone, at least explain what you're suspicious of and not just say "Oh everyone else is suspicious and so am I." To me, that looks bad.

And because of that (and because I have school in an hour till after closing time :rolleyes: ) I shall cast my vote for

++Sixth

Now I shall go and count those leave above my shed to help me fall asleep.

[the guy who be short]

Hello village.

I am suspicious of Thinlomien for a number of factors. Observe-ye:

I don't understand this attack against Roa. I think she speaks sense and I don't find myself suspecting her.
I disagree. Talking about gifteds and all that this early is in no way helpful. They can also work things out for themselves. That Roa-post looks like it was trying to be helpful, but wasn't saying much that was helpful to the village.
Her accusations and vote for Glirdan. Seems to be on very shoddy evidence to me.
I agree with them we shouldn't speculate them too much [about roles]Isn't that what Roa, who she defends, was doing?
Tradition!
I am also uneasy about Roa, as I said above, and The Sixth Wizard, for jumping onto the attack on Glirdan.

EDIT: Hmmm. Cool indents.

[Mithalwen]

*sigh* I was afraid of this. If I ever mod a game of werewolf, there will be no occupations, etc.

Personally, the issue means nothing to me, as we'll know soon enough if there is a werebear (by the number of kills ToNight) and a cobbler, while dangerous, is not a pressing matter until later in the game. .




While I agree with much of what you said three little points :

1,Go on! Mod sometime, you'll love it ...

2, Because we don't know about rangers, a single kill tonight wouln't absolutely exclude a werebear.

3, I wish my last village had relised that about cobblers :rolleyes: :p

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hai! Hay! Yoi! Hai hola! Whazzup down here, youngsters? Dis body didn't yet start to rot, and ya'll already accusing and voting! Uh, it's noon already... okay, I understand. Go check yer goats, Lommy. Go check your stuff, staff, Sixey, you lubber. We understand you have much to do.

Meanwhile! As some of you rats pointed here earlier, we cannot think we could do something clever today. Tis the first day, and unless these Howlers are totally stupid and make some mistake, then we can't hope in much evidence. So any souffy- err... soup- err...soup-his-thick-a-teeth... what? Oh, sophisticated, thank you very much - debates are of no use now. We have to wait for other days. The best we can do is to hope we'll be lucky enough today to pick a stupid Wolf, or that we are lucky enough to pick a random guy and look, he's a wolf! Well, I don't believe in miracles. "Early shots go mostly off," I always said to these little snufflers, but d'ya think they listen?
But that's not that we should sneeze at this. I know, the evidence is too feeble, feeble. The evidence is always feeble at this point! But this doesn't mean to cast chaotic or blind suspicions or to jump a bandwaggon for no reason. It's better to think for yourself. Let's look at what caught my eye, or ear, in this little debate.

I can assure you I'm not doing such a thing to confuse you, unlike Glirdan, who may well be a bad guy.
Hay, and what's that? Man, no one accused ya of anythin' an' you say THAT? Nay don't take me wrong, but this looks strange. When me my lads returned from Dagorlad, I asked one of my lads, Zolg: Ai, why didn't you use yer bow? You were afraid, eh? He didn't answer, he had to do something first. But that little maggot Shagbag came and said: Sir, I didn't use my bow but it was because I didn't have much arrows. Know what I mean? I wasn't even going to ask him, and here he came. This is what you did, Six. I know, maybe all too stupid for a wolf, but...

As for the triangle debate happening up there, meaning Rikae, Roa, Glirdy. I have seen this before. Back then, one was a dirty wolfish Tark-lover and one a Cobbler. I don't think we have a Cobbler here, though everything's possible. But I see these talks as pretty "cookin' out of water". And one wolfy sluggard could no problem hide in there.

Only to add my opinion on that "roles-whatroles-revealing-whatever", I think we shouldn't worry that much, we can only speculate and that's about nothing, until one beautiful day the line "you have lynched your Seer" appears. But I suggest we bear in mind these posts now here, and in case someone reveals proclaiming "I'm a Ranger", double-check if what he does makes sense with what he wrote here about revealing roles.

I'm off, gonna re-read, re-check. I already have some suspects on today, but still it's the whole afternoon ahead of us and... well, just stay sharp.

EDIT: X-posted with all these guys down from the "DEATH TO YOU" scream.

[Mithalwen]

I don't see what is so suspicious about Roa ..we all know she likes to get peopletalking and likes to analyse. Since this game has more or less unlimited variables it doesn't give her much to work on so what else to talk about is the possibilities. And she is spot on to say that it is suspicius for gifteds to declare. For myself I will almost vote to lynch anyone who declares as a hunter this game. I always think it is self defeating for a hunter to declare and this game where there could be no hunters or two hunters it would make a great cover for a wolf.

Other roles used but not mentioned are Shirriffs and wasn't there a weaver once ..I remember talk of it but not if it were actually used and what it did.

Mythomaniacs previously don't take their role until Night 2 since the idea is that it is a choice informed by the first day's observation.

[Mithalwen]

Well I will have to get back to work in a couple of minutes ..I hope that it is a bit livelier when I return....... actually that is a bit of a cert since Noggin should be arount ....

[the guy who be short]

And she is spot on to say that it is suspicius for gifteds to declare.I'd rather a more important gifted (the Hunter isn't that important) declared themselves rather than letting themselves be killed. THat would be a huge blow, losing a gifted by our own hands.

[Mithalwen]

I'd rather a more important gifted (the Hunter isn't that important) declared themselves rather than letting themselves be killed. THat would be a huge blow, losing a gifted by our own hands.

Of course it is a blow but if a ranger declares they will die that night anyway and a seer may not be able to be protected. Given that there are no retractables, what do we do? Sacrifice an innocent in all likelihood then provide the wolves with a "no brainer" kill. Obviously individual circumstances apply but IAm speaking from the perspective of someone who panicked into declaring both times and it was less than ideal...

[the guy who be short]

It's better to lynch anybody and have a chance of getting a wolf than to lynch a Seer/Ranger. If they are in a position where they are likely to be lynched, that means they will die anyway. They may as well declare, let the wolves get them at night and let the village try to get a wolf in the day rather than killing the gifted.

Like you, I am talking generally and individual circumstances apply. In any case it will be up to the gifted when they're about to snuff it to decide what to do. No point speculating any further.

[Macalaure]

She first votes for me. Then she goes on to say that the evidence is feeble ad that she would like to hear my response but is votingon my because I'm the most suspicious when almost 1/3 of the players have not voted yet. Now, I take into account her time zone problem as that is why I myself have to vote now.If you have to vote, you have to vote. And if you only have one miserable suspect then you might vote for that one, though you would rather not.


I don't want to defend Roa ( :eek: ), but I don't see anything suspicious about her first post. There was nothing else to talk about at the time but roleplay, and her points make sense. It's better to state that gifteds have a more difficult task revealing themselves early on Day One than when the situation is at hand and everybody panics.


The best we can do is to hope we'll be lucky enough today to pick a stupid Wolf, or that we are lucky enough to pick a random guy and look, he's a wolf! Well, I don't believe in miracles.Not so pessimistic, my Chieftain! There are more stupid wolves than one might think, and even smart wolves can be caught early.. sometimes.


I would suggest to not be too strict about my companion in wizardry, the Sixth Wizard. It's not nice to lynch somebody on the first Day of his first game, especially when he's no longer there to defend himself.

[the guy who be short]

There are more stupid wolves than one might thinkOh really? Perhaps you can tell us more, Mr Mac the Magician... I wouldn't be surprised to find such a man shapeshifting at night!

[Gil-Galad]

Brinn? Sixth? Gil? No idea, you can't tell much from their posts.




i fail to see how anyone can tell from the first posts...

but i got a little itch from Lommy's post... she just came right out and tried to defend Roa... could be a virtuous villager, but everyone should know that if they are an ordinary, they are on their own

so that makes me inclined to think that either Roa and thin are wolves... or our gifted...

Suspicous:
Thinlomien
Roa

[Macalaure]

Oh really? Perhaps you can tell us more, Mr Mac the Magician... I wouldn't be surprised to find such a man shapeshifting at night!I just don't like it when people bemoan that we aren't going to catch a wolf on Day One except by luck, especially when it's still this early one the Day. :)

[Rikae]

I just have a moment to check the posts now, but I'll be around before the deadline.

Right now the whole Glirdan issue is most attention grabbing. While I raised an eyebrow at the way Glirdan's second post seems to misrepresent the issues, I can't decide whether to believe it's willful misrepresentation or innocent misunderstanding. The blending of "oh, pretty butterfly..." in character comments with suspicion feels off to me too, but I'll reserve judgement for the time being.
Something about TGWBS bugs me. He says that Roa's first post is "trying to sound helpful without being helpful", and that phrase immediately jumped out at me. It's become sort of a stock-accusation that's easy to fling around, and doesn't really make sense so early in the game. It seems a little too generalized, and especially bothers me coupled with the suspicion toward Thinlomien for voting early (in my experience, she almost always does, and I think TGWBS knows that).
I also wonder why he wouldn't want a hunter to reveal:
I'd rather a more important gifted (the Hunter isn't that important) declared themselves rather than letting themselves be killed. .If I'm not mistaken, an ordinary hunter only kills if he/she is killed by wolves. It seems to me the wolves would like very much to have a hunter safely lynched, rather than revealed.
I don't care for Legate's defeatist attitude; we may have slim chances of catching a wolf on day one, but they are certainly better if we actually make an effort!

EDIT: x'd with Gil and Mac
EDIT2: Oh yeah, just Mac. I forgot seeing Gil's post.

[Nogrod]

I just don't like it when people bemoan that we aren't going to catch a wolf on Day One except by luck, especially when it's still this early one the Day. :)I do wholeheartedly agree with Macalaure here. And in fact there are actual possibilities of catching a wolf on Day1 if the village just a) keeps talking and b) keeps talking sensibly (not only the rolestuff). Many a wolf has met their maker in the end of Day1, with reasoned voting... So let's not downplay our chances. I personally tend to put those people higher in my list of suspicions who say we should just trust our luck or vote randomly on Day1. That's what suits the villains best.

I share the view a few here that Roa was just trying to make a reasonable point at a phase of the game where there was basically nothing else to say and thence will look more suspiciously to those who tried to make a case out of it. The problerm with Roa surely is that she would do that as a villain too... :confused:

Glirdy then? He looks so bad again... but I would actually hesitate with lynching him once again on Day1 because he looks suspicious. That's what he manages to do everytime.

Also I happen to know that Lommy had no choice but to vote at that time and I don't envy her situation. If you throw judgements over her voting please tell us whom you would have voted on that hour and with what reasons? That doesn't rule out the possibility that Lommy is a baddie who loves her situatiuon where she can vote "safely" everyDay because of the timezones / netaccess -things.

Okay. I'll check the thread again and try to see if there is anything else to say. I need to attend to a meeting soon but will be back to play actively the last three hours or something.

[Roa_Aoife]

Oh good, people talked! That makes me so happy.

So, the "Day 1's are useless" "No they aren't" debate has been started. Well, I'll admit that when no one talks on Day 1, very little gets done. However, you can catch people in lies or contradictions, especially if they're vocal. It's been done before, and it can happen again. Day 1 is the most useless when everyone bemoans how useless it is, and nothing gets done.

I disagree. Talking about gifteds and all that this early is in no way helpful. They can also work things out for themselves. That Roa-post looks like it was trying to be helpful, but wasn't saying much that was helpful to the village.

No way helpful? You don't think it's helpful to point out that a wolf could easily hide as a gifted, especially in this game, and that we should be aware of it? Would you rather I wait until Day 3, when someone suddenly says "Wait, I'm a gifted!" and everyone panics and tries to find someone else to vote for? At such a time, that point would do more harm than good, causing even greater confusion than what typically happens on such days.

Her accusations and vote for Glirdan. Seems to be on very shoddy evidence to me.

She had to go, and it's probable that she won't be on again until after the Day has ended. Voting for the person you find most suspicious isn't suspicious, it's what everyone does. I like that much more than a random vote.

Isn't that what Roa, who she defends, was doing?

What was I doing? Perhaps you didn't read the full post. I systematically went over the possible roles, established what we could and could not do about them (mostly nothing), and ended it by saying:

So, with that out of the way, we can stop worrying about roles which might not even be here, and just focus on catching wolves.

I garuntee you, if I hadn't brought it up, someone else would have, likely a wolf, and tried to stir conversation and debate about it. I find your means of accusing me through accusing Thin to be extremely shady.

Moving on....

so that makes me inclined to think that either Roa and thin are wolves... or our gifted...


Openly marking suspected gifted makes me very nervous indeed. And knowing how quiet Gil tends to be, I have little hope of getting a better read off of him.

And finally....

And now I am clear. I was actually a litte befuddled by what you had posted which made me leery(sp?) of you. Sorry for jumping down your throat.

I'm not so sure I accept this defense. If you weren't clear, why jump so readily on Rikae's point? Why not ask for clarification instead? You used some pretty dire wording for mere "befuddlement."

I have to vote now, since I won't be back till after the deadline.

++TGWBS

He worries me the most right now, especially since I am wary of anyone who tries to carry on a debate about roles we might not even have, and he keeps doing just that. Not to mention he says:

Talking about gifteds and all that this early is in no way helpful.
and then
I'd rather a more important gifted (the Hunter isn't that important) declared themselves rather than letting themselves be killed. THat would be a huge blow, losing a gifted by our own hands.
and
It's better to lynch anybody and have a chance of getting a wolf than to lynch a Seer/Ranger. If they are in a position where they are likely to be lynched, that means they will die anyway. They may as well declare, let the wolves get them at night and let the village try to get a wolf in the day rather than killing the gifted.

For someone who thinks talking about gifteds is unhelpful, that's aboutall his posts have been. And that, for you people who think Day 1's are useless, is a contradiction.

Edit: Crossed with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

With this little posting I can see Roa, Brinniel, Macalaure and Mith speaking in cool and wise ways. It makes me think better of them but at the same time it nags me whether their honeyed lips conceal a terrible secret.

I thought Rikae a bit suspicious based on her reaction to Roa but find her now sharing my slight suspicions of tgwbs. I also thought tgwbs's suspicion of Lommy a bit lupine (see: four points in a list this early in the game - even though the last one was a joke). I do not claim that Lommy is innocent - to me she is a potential werewolf as all you others - but the way tgwbs made his "case" was somewhat worrying. Even if I myself think that wise wolves just sit back and relax on Day1, there is no rule that no wolf should not actively try to steer the voting on Day1. Of course if there was a case that a fellow (thence Glirdy?) was suspected? That could make sense at least on the early game when it's not standing out so clearly. But that is weak indeed.

I'm somewhat confused about Legate at this moment. He speaks a lot of sense there, a lot of nonsense and then somethings that just ring my alarm-bells...

The sixth wizard surely looks pretty odd too, but as someone already noted, it would be a shame to lynch someone for that reason in his first game Day1.

I'll be back, hopefully with something more constructive to say...

EDIT: X'd with Roa

[the guy who be short]

Something about TGWBS bugs me. He says that Roa's first post is "trying to sound helpful without being helpful", and that phrase immediately jumped out at me. It's become sort of a stock-accusation that's easy to fling around, and doesn't really make sense so early in the game. It seems a little too generalized, and especially bothers me coupled with the suspicion toward Thinlomien for voting early (in my experience, she almost always does, and I think TGWBS knows that).Firstly, I nowhere stated any suspicious of Thinlomien for voting early. Misrepresentation is a dangerous game to play, Rikae...

As for why I didn't like Roa's post, if I must go into detail to satisfy you, let's go:

She starts off talking about what roles might be in this village, how many wolves, etc. These are all thoughts that the rest of us should already have had and so there is no real point in saying that it's unlikely that there are more the 3 wolves.

She then says we have to be wary of people coming out as gifted because they may just be wolves. She casts doubt on whether we'll have a ranger/seer/hunter at all; I personally can't imagine that the village would be left without the first two at all. She also conveniently says that being uncontested is not proof of being gifted, and that greater proof is required. This strikes me as wolvish; she's striking down any revealed gifted before they even have a chance to reveal themselves.

She says this:We don't know if we have a ranger though, so if we go a night with out a kill, we cannot assume that a person was protected.So no kill means that the wolves just decided not to kill anybody? :confused: Why not come to the sensible conclusion that no kill = ranger? Why is she trying to make us doubt even this?

So, with that out of the way, we can stop worrying about roles which might not even be here, and just focus on catching wolves.Which is what we were meant to be doing anyway. That whole post just seems to be filler, so we can see she's said lots of words. The words themselves seem to say little; the little they say, I construe as wolvish.


I also wonder why he wouldn't want a hunter to revealThe way I see it, a Hunter is more likely to kill an innocent than a wolf. They're also unimportant on the grand scale; a seer can reveal wolves and innocents, a ranger can protect known innocents. A hunter can't really do much.

[Gil-Galad]

i fear i must vote now for i won't make the deadline too...

so today my vote must go to

++Thinlomien

[the guy who be short]

Whom I cross-posted with earlier.

For someone who thinks talking about gifteds is unhelpful, that's aboutall his posts have been. And that, for you people who think Day 1's are useless, is a contradiction.Very shoddy basis for voting. Both those comments you mentioned (and there were only two) were in response to Mith.

No way helpful? You don't think it's helpful to point out that a wolf could easily hide as a gifted, especially in this game, and that we should be aware of it? Would you rather I wait until Day 3, when someone suddenly says "Wait, I'm a gifted!" and everyone panics and tries to find someone else to vote for? No. No. And no.

We all know wolves can hide as gifteds, and I've already said I don't think this game is special or magical. I can't see us not having a Seer or Ranger.

Also I'd rather you didn't say anything at all. All that first post has caused is unnecessary speculation; I and others have been forced to reply to it and carry on with this useless role-speculation.


What was I doing? Perhaps you didn't read the full post. I systematically went over the possible roles, established what we could and could not do about them (mostly nothing),
And you don't count that as overspeculation about roles, eh?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ai! Steady now! I think this is going too far unnecessarily. Gnarl, if anyone values my opinion, this speaks for both tgwbs and Roa's innocence - at least concerning this matter, this discussion. tgwbs's defence seems too real, honest, you know what I mean. Roa on the other hand, I think - tgwbs, you might not see it, but - very very much reminds me of the "teacher syndrome". I have experience with it myself when teaching little Orcs, and I think this is just it. I absolutely see your point, tgwbs, but I think Roa just tried to point out something, even if it seemed obvious to you (to me, also), because she thought there might be people who wouldn't think of it. And she might be right. So no accusations based on this one from me, and I suggest you don't as well.

Oh, don't think that's all from me. Just had to step in, Whiteskins. I'll be back. Just need a quiet rest and time to think, curse you! *walks off to his hut and slams the door*

[the guy who be short]

I suppose Legate is right in this. Roa and I are both known for loudmouths, and loudmouths have a thing for calling attention to themselves and getting lynched for no reason.

This gives me 5 minutes to vote. I'm still not happy with Rikae misrepresenting me, but my accusation of Lommy stands. Will probably vote for her.

[the guy who be short]

++LOMMY

Fare well and vote wisely.

[Mithalwen]

With the usual caveat that you can never discount Roa as a wolf (and I am sure she would be insulted if we did), her post, at an early and extremely quiet phase, reminded me rather of my ill fated first post in my last game where with the absence of anything to discuss I stated the somewhat obvious as what I believe Americans call a "heads up". Two of the people who jumped down my throat for my innocent comments turned out to be wolves.

I really can't imagine what else there was to say at that point ..especially if you are not into the rpg side ...in fact had timezones been different I might have said similar things. Unless Roa is one of them the wolves would be delighted to get her lynched today so unless I see some evidence a heck of a lot stronger that "helpful without being so" I shall look more suspiciously at her accusers.

Yes seeming to be helpful can be an indicator but it more often applies to "empty analyses" - reporting the deeds of others without applying any insight or drawing conclusions.... Day 2 or 3 stuff. :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

Back then... Just a general point to begin with.
All that first post (=Roa's) has caused is unnecessary speculation; I and others have been forced to reply to it and carry on with this useless role-speculation.First post does not cause a flood but those who continue it. I can't see all the stuff talked here around Roa's post being only forced replies... :p But it has provoked interesting reactions to be sure. So it might turn out useful, not perhaps toDay but later in the game.

[Mithalwen]

Yay I am not alone!!!

[Nogrod]

Yay I am not alone!!!No you aren't! :D

The votes and the outspoken reasons for them so far. I’ll come up with a word or two with them in a minute...


Lommy ++ Glirdan
Yes, Glirdan seems quite taking Rikae's point - which was not an accusation in my opinion - and turning it to an accusation while trying to make it seem that Rikae's with him there... Looks quite bad............
I'm going to vote him because he simply seems clearly the most suspicious of those who have posted this far.
Sixth Wizard ++ Glirdan
I can assure you I'm not doing such a thing to confuse you, unlike Glirdan, who may well be a bad guy.
Glirdan ++ Sixth
Voting for me on the pure fact that a few people are suspicious of me and that he agrees I'm suspicious. Alright and dandy. But no explanation as to why I'm suspicious? That worries me. Sure it's a Day1, but if you yourself are suspicious of someone, at least explain what you're suspicious of and not just say "Oh everyone else is suspicious and so am I." To me, that looks bad.
Roa ++ tgwbs
For someone who thinks talking about gifteds is unhelpful, that's aboutall his posts have been. And that, for you people who think Day 1's are useless, is a contradiction.
Gil-Galad ++ Lommy
but i got a little itch from Lommy's post... she just came right out and tried to defend Roa... could be a virtuous villager, but everyone should know that if they are an ordinary, they are on their own ......... so that makes me inclined to think that either Roa and thin are wolves... or our gifted...
tgwbs ++ Lommy
I am suspicious of Thinlomien for a number of factors. Observe-ye:
1. I don't understand this attack against Roa. I think she speaks sense and I don't find myself suspecting her.I disagree. Talking about gifteds and all that this early is in no way helpful. They can also work things out for themselves. That Roa-post looks like it was trying to be helpful, but wasn't saying much that was helpful to the village.
2. Her accusations and vote for Glirdan. Seems to be on very shoddy evidence to me.
3. I agree with them we shouldn't speculate them too much [about roles] Isn't that what Roa, who she defends, was doing?
4. Tradition!


So all in all that makes:
Glirdan 2
Lommy 2
The Sixth 1
Tgwbs 1

6/13 have voted.
1/13 has not been seen yet.

[Mithalwen]

The last being Xyzzy who hasn't checked in for several days. Has Menel given a policy on no shows? Is it very cynical of me to suggest that we might do worse than to preempt it? No offence to Xyzzy who probably doesn't know the game has started yet but I am not very so persuaded of the guilt of those who have been voted for so far.

Glirdan seemed off ..but sometimes people genuinely get the wrong head of the stick, Sixth just seems to be cutting her teeth, Lommy ... I need ot have a look but didn't raise any hackles and TGWBS.... well I disagree with him but that doesn't necessarily mean he is guilty ;) ... I disagree with Rikae too but she is not in the frame and I am not sure it is helpful to widen the field too much at this point. If a alterantive is needed I would rather remove a non combattant....

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am back and I must say I spent a lot of time thinking about who these wolves might be. However optimistic I would like to be, I ended up being very pesimistic about the possibility we catch a wolf today. But as I said earlier, this does not mean giving it up, I am merely stating facts based on probability. Many images of a werewolf came through my mind. First it seemed it's Rikae in bright lycra suit, then it's a sort of small penguin-gal, then it must be a pack of dirty little wizards; or maybe it's all the lot together.

One of the other persons is Nogrod. He might be honest, though... there are several things which seem really alarming to me. He seemed playing too much of a "goodie" to me in his first post. And later then, I am naturally suspicious of people who make summaries. I didn't say that in the last game, because all my colleagues did that at that time :D But that's fact: a werewolf does best to make summaries for himself, so it does not take much effort from him to post them to others.

And Brinn. If I were a Wolf and were her (=person first time in a wolf role), I wouldn't probably do much until the end, which is exactly what she does. Though someone said here that accusing someone because of posting nothing-containing posts is silly now, I'd still want to point it out. She did it. Just to bring it to attention, if nothing else. Also, Nogrod seems to quite easily merge her with the other people who posted more, while I think that Brinniel didn't say that much, actually. This is exactly what the other wolves did to me when I was a wolf - putting me in one sack with other innocents, so that no one noticed.

That's what I had to share. Ponder it or not, agree with it or not, speak to it or not (but rather speak than not). I have spoken.

[Nogrod]

Lommy: Voted for the one that was clearly (to my mind at least) the most suspicious-looking at the time of her vote. Were she a wolf she would admittedly have brains to do the same. But lynching on Day1 a player who could be of a big help later just because of that is IMHO very short-sighted. Proposing that is almost lupine.

The Sixth: Clinged to Lommy's vote immediately with not the grandest of outspoken reasons (Lommy at least stated her reasons for suspecting Glirdy) but also he had to go then. It's hard to blame him on that either at this point I would say.

Glirdan: I don't like "retaliatory" voting at all and think it's a safe position to the wolves to hide as many tend to "understand" that kind of thing. But in the end - thinking of the cause of the villagers - it's pretty counter-productive as a villager should only try to get the wolves, not to retaliate. Every vote counts. But it's Day1 and some people do not believe we can do something with them and blah-blah... But I'm pretty uncomfortable with lynching Glirdy as it seems always turn out to be a lynching of an innocent who just looks suspicious and weakens our chances. Must think about this still.

Roa: Gives a reason to her vote which basically is not the one I think makes tgwbs look a bit suspicious. But unless there is more to be laid against her I would not vote for her toDay. The same as it is with Lommy: I wouldn't like to see a great asset go on Day1 with basically non-existant reasons.

Gil: He is a disturbing one. He states a reason, sure, but the open speculation about gifteds in that spot really confuses me. Then again I don't think a wolf-Gil would do that. And like with Glirdy, a lynched Gil normally turns out an innocent... This also makes me wonder about Roa a bit as she threw some suspicions into Gil's direction because of his gifted-speculation... a villager rarely throws suspicions against those who will not be there to answer for themselves if they are not pretty confident about their case. Maybe I should rethink about Roa still?

tgwbs: This I find somewhat suspicious or at least unnerving. He had time to play and took actively part in it but then decided to go for his first suspicion (quite weakly built case - and if one thinks of it - not an obvious choise of an innocent villager). Sad to say, but in the last game he was voting in a similar-feeling detached manner. I suspected him of that then and he turned out to be a wolf. It would be luck indeed if he were to be a wolf in two games in a row but not impossible. Still I'm a bit unhappy with voting him as the same that goes for Lommy and Roa applies to him too. I wouldn't like to lose an innocent tgwbs on Day1.

So what to say? This seems to have made me more unsure about everything...

There are still some people who have been quiet enough even though they have posted...

[Mithalwen]

Yes that is possible ... but what I meant is that ther has been so little activity and so many variables, that it is hard to post something substantial. Ordos know nothing - as someone pointed out - we are on out own. It leaves little but speculation and hypothesis based on previous villages which withthe best will in the world tends to be subjective.

It is dangerous to assume that becasue someone has a different style to us that they are guilty asn easy to be lulled into a false sense of security by someone who seems to think the same way as us.

Not that that helps.. we have very little time now...

[Macalaure]

The way it looks right now, I think I will end up voting for tgwbs. The only other person to wave a flag is Glirdan, but I would rather hear of him tomorrow.


tgwbs:

He starts with suspecting Lommy for thinking Roa unsuspicious, and her reasons for this. He says Roa's post was trying to look helpful without being helpful. I don't see how he got that particular idea. It maybe wouldn't be so suspicious to me if it wasn't so widely common to throw suspicions onto someone saying "he's trying to look helpful without being helpful", just like Glirdan's claim Roa is "inconsistent". It's not that he is suspicious of Roa (everybody should), but the way he expressed it.

Then he argues with Mith about if and how gifted should reveal their roles (without being forced to!). He criticises my point about stupid wolves, which was in a surprisingly aggressive manner for such a minor thing.

Later he defends himself against Rikae, again going into details about gifteds.

He defends himself against Roa, who had voted for him. The line Nogrod quoted already indeed looks interesting. If he feels forced to be speculating about roles, then why does he? He didn't have to, at least not to that extent.

He votes Lommy.

Roa and I are both known for loudmouths, and loudmouths have a thing for calling attention to themselves and getting lynched for no reason.This one worries me greatly. It sounds like he's downplaying what he had said this Day to just being a loudmouth and calling attention to himself. It seems like it's meant to suggest we shouldn't look at his words in detail because it's all just volume.

edit: crossed with mith and nogrod

[Nogrod]

Not that that helps.. we have very little time now...We do have an hour and a half I presume? With daylight savings GMT is not the same as English time, remember? Or then I'm totally wrong and we are in a hurry. :confused:

[Mithalwen]

We do have an hour and a half I presume? With daylight savings GMT is not the same as English time, remember? Or then I'm totally wrong and we are in a hurry. :confused:


I don't know I get confused.... :(

Sorry I didn't realise the Downs had adjusted for daylight saving here ... and I have no watch and teh computer says 4am ...
I think we have the extra hour though what it will avail...

[Nogrod]

The last being Xyzzy who hasn't checked in for several days. Has Menel given a policy on no shows? Is it very cynical of me to suggest that we might do worse than to preempt it? No offence to Xyzzy who probably doesn't know the game has started yet but I am not very so persuaded of the guilt of those who have been voted for so far.I need to read more of tgwbs now and also look if I can spot anything else of interest from the thread so far. But that is not totally cynical to my view either. If we have no good "case" on anyone we still have the mathematical probability's worth chance with Xyzzy and if s/he is not going to even log in then s/he's just a dead load whom the wolves won't touch in any case and s/he might be a wolf too... 3/13 chance, or something... as we don't know the exact situation)

So if it looks like pure random or very improbable in the end we should perhaps consider Xyzzy?

But how many of us is going to be here around the deadline? And surely if Xyzzy appears the situation is different.

[Macalaure]

It seems like Xyzzy hasn't realised that the game has started. Lynching newbies on Day One is not nice. We can still consider lynching him on Day Two.

[Brinniel]

I think that Brinniel didn't say that much
I didn't say much in my first post honestly because I didn't have much to say. I'm always puzzled on what exactly to write at the beginning of Day One, and it's a bit difficult to make analysis when there's few posts.

Only an hour and a half until deadline and I'm still not sure who to vote for. From my experience in the last game, the wolves often turn out to be the least suspicious ones on Day One. Of course, this is a different game, with different wolves, and a different situation. But I will still keep that thought in mind...

Anyways, I'm pretty certain on the people I will NOT be voting for:

Glirdan: Yes, his behaviour earlier was a bit odd, but too often the ones who seem so obviously suspicious turn out to be innocent. I don't think we should be too quick to vote for him, not this early in the game.

The Sixth Wizard: His decision to bandwagon with Lommy's vote was a bit strange, but I do not think that his a reason to vote for him toDay. After all, he had no choice but to vote early due to time zone issues, and there was still very little to go off of at that hour. Plus, he is a newbie to this...and I know I would hate to be lynched on Day One of my first game. Besides...I'd like to hear more from him before becoming too suspicious.

Lommy: While she could easily be a wolf, it is too early in the game to tell. Like Sixth, she had to vote early on for a reasonable explanation, so I can't really judge her based on her vote selection. I would still like to hear more from her in the upcoming Days, and hopefully, she'll be able to stick around longer.

With that said, I will begin examining those who are not on the list above and look for any suspicious behaviour that will help me make my voting decision.

And as mentioned, xyzzy still has not shown up...and it appears he has not been active since Saturday. A bit of a disappointment since I was interested in hearing from him. Hopefully he'll show up sometime between now and the deadline..

EDIT: X-ed after Legate's last post.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So if it looks like pure random or very improbable in the end we should perhaps consider Xyzzy?

Well, I would say this is not nice if xyzzy plans to show yet - maybe he has some troubles we don't know about... but from the typical Orcish point of view, "why not, he's a dead meat." But seriously: if he does not show in the game at all, then it's 100% sure thing not killing a participating innocent and something around the 3/13 chance of killing a Wolf, as Nogrod said... well, unless someone is trying to save his neck here by putting in an already dead substitute :p , I think this is a thing to ponder. If we only knew if he's coming back... this way it's maybe too rough.

[Mithalwen]

I know it is not "nice" and that it is cynical and if htey had logged on more recently I wouldn't have suggested it but I will seriously consider doing so if I don't become more certain of the guilt of the current votees .. I would rather vote for Xzzy for not being here than Sixth for being here but perhaps being a bit green and in a different timesone ot everyone else. And it is a common wolf tactic to kill the quietest person on Night one ot leave no clues...

It isn't ideal -especially as we could end up killing a gifted as easily as a wolf.

Without dissing the wolves of my last game - teh villagesrs were hog-tied by ordo drop-outs ... it is in that context I am suggesting this ruthlessly pragmatic course.

[Nogrod]

It seems like Xyzzy hasn't realised that the game has started. Lynching newbies on Day One is not nice. We can still consider lynching him on Day Two.You're right. But if we wait for him to Day2, then why not to Day3 and surely we have at least something against someone else... The "real quiets" become more and more dangerous every Day that goes by. So a Day1 is the easiest place.

But I'll welcome any better solutions. I've eyed through tgwbs "shortly" :D and am a bit puzzled still. He speaks sense oftentimes but makes also points and acts (votes) in a lupine way too... and the overall feeling I get from him is more of the malvolent one than an innocent one. But the last is just gut-feelings.

Let's hope Brinniel comes back as she has said almost nothing toDay. And yes Legate, I thought she made sense early on the Day - and during that time she had not posted any less "substantially" than anyone else. But now I am getting a bit worried as she promised to be back. But I also wonder your ends as the point you make about it looks pretty trivial and most of all ill-construed.

And where's Rikae?

EDIT: X'd with Brinniel onwards...

[Mithalwen]

I feel moreuneasy about Glirdan and TGWBS than Lommy and Sixth. Rikae makes my uneasy but gah.....

Do I feel strongly enough about them to vote?

Or do I make the unkindest cut ....

Nogrod may be right ..... I wish we knew Menel's stance on no shows...

[Nogrod]

If we only knew if he's (Xyzzy) coming back... this way it's maybe too rough.That's the problem. And I think Mith also pointed it out. If he's not coming we should lynch him and take our chances, if he is, that is a bit rough as you say.

But a better possibility is of course to find a wolf who has been around toDay... An hour to do it.

[Gil-Galad]

wow i did make deadline...


well here is my math

if lommy = wolf

then roa and sixth may = wolves or confused villagers

but if lommy is innocent then sixth and roa may have some light to their innocent

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I didn't say much in my first post honestly because I didn't have much to say. I'm always puzzled on what exactly to write at the beginning of Day One, and it's a bit difficult to make analysis when there's few posts.
Ai, this reaction quite eased my suspections on you. I might say this is what my ears wanted to hear. Alright, I'll leave it for now.

It isn't ideal -especially as we could end up killing a gifted as easily as a wolf.
Assuming xyzzy is not a Gifted himself :rolleyes:

Roa and I are both known for loudmouths, and loudmouths have a thing for calling attention to themselves and getting lynched for no reason.This one worries me greatly. It sounds like he's downplaying what he had said this Day to just being a loudmouth and calling attention to himself. It seems like it's meant to suggest we shouldn't look at his words in detail because it's all just volume.
You think so? Well, I thought about it when tgwbs took my intervention quite well that he maybe adopted this idea too quickly - but on the other hand, something really seemed honest on all of this. So if for something, I wouldn't suspect him for that.

EDIT: X-ed with all except Mith from my last post.

[Mithalwen]

I fear that given his location and age he may well be in school til the deadline. And as a experienced RL WWgamer I don't htink he'd take it personally... I don't like this but it may be the best ..unless we are certain of Glirdan or TGWBS..andI can't hand on heart say I am....

[Mithalwen]

Legate ..that was I was saying! Nogrod said that Xzzy might be a wolf and I was saying yes but he might be a gifted..thoug if he is he may not be being so useful...

[Brinniel]

Well, thanks to Who's Online, I've noticed xyzzy seem to come online consistently every few days, so I do think he will return. The question is.. when? I did take notice that it was his birthday yesterday...so possibly that could be a reason he has not shown up. I'm not sure... :confused:

Anyways, I don't intend on voting for him. I do not like to vote for people who have not had the chance to speak. Let us wait and see if he shows up toMorrow, and then we can come up with a decision.

EDIT: X-ed with Legate on

[Nogrod]

Okay. Here's what I think.

Gil-Galad & Glirdan both post normally just a little and look more than suspicious. It’s like flipping a coin with them...

The Sixth Wizard a first-timer who has been in the game. I wouldn’t like to vote for him.

Roa_Aoife & Thinlómien might play the way they do were they wolves but with this evidence I wouldn’t like to risk voting them.

Macalaure & Mithalwen I’m feeling somewhat well right now. It doesn’t mean I will declare them innocents, no way, but I have no wish to lynch them on Day1 with non-existant reasons.

Brinniel: She looked sensible as she returned. I have no reason to suspect her any more than other up above.

That leaves:

Rikae & Legate of Amon Lanc: I have some slight suspicions on the gut-level. I’m sorry I may not have time toDay to word them out but I try if I have time.

the guy who be short: I am a bit worried about... but not sure if I'm ready to help lynch him. He could be a good one on our side.

Xyzzy: well, we’ve discussed this already...


I am quite sure that at least one wolf dwells in that upper portion of my list, most probably two. But... as the Day has not been the most produvctive I've seen, I'd like to go for someone from the "downstairs", or then Gil or Glirdy to make a blind try...

[Mithalwen]

Brinniel - As the only North American here now - do you know if he is likely to be on school vacation now? UK kids are.....

[Nogrod]

Well, thanks to Who's Online, I've noticed xyzzy seem to come online consistently every few days, so I do think he will return. The question is.. when? I did take notice that it was his birthday yesterday...so possibly that could be a reason he has not shown up. I'm not sure...Good that you checked it. I'm beginning to think too that we might do wise to wait for another Day with him. When Mith said he had been online on Saturday the last time I was beginning to think he might not appear... But that makes our choice even harder toDay...

[Macalaure]

Lacking any new ideas, let's have a look at the vote count.

Lommy -> Glirdan
Sixth -> Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Sixth (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1)
Roa -> tgwbs (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1)
Gil -> Lommy (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1, Lommy 1)
tgwbs -> Lommy (Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1)


Left: Brinniel, Nogrod, Mith, Legate, Rikae, me and, of course, Xyzzy.

[Nogrod]

Please people, don't shy away with your opinions! Only the wolves would love to hang around and check how the villagers go forwards to the last minute frenzy...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

well here is my math

if lommy = wolf

then roa and sixth may = wolves or confused villagers

Interesting, I thought about this as well. I like that, bandito! Seems living in the wild was good to yer brains. Yer brains is similar to mine.* That's one reason why I pondered Lommy at the start. If we don't choose xyzzy, apart from Nogrod (who still seems somewhat... wolfish is the word - to me), she is the other option...

*Everyone might ponder whether uruk brains ís to be relied on.

Legate ..that was I was saying! Nogrod said that Xzzy might be a wolf and I was saying yes but he might be a gifted..thoug if he is he may not be being so useful...
Oh, sorry, I didn't catch. I must say I generally have the most trouble with your posts, I generally have to read them all at least twice. Don't know for what it is, some elvish plot or other. :p

So... to make matters clear... what do you think about xyzzy? Is there a possibility to vote for him, or are we leaving this out? I am for that if nothing, it would not harm the village - probably. But if someone else, then someone else... just to know who to vote for.

EDIT: x-ed with all from Nogrod's post after Brinniel's down...

[Mithalwen]

I thinkI have been quite honest.

I feel uneasy about TGWBS but fear that sensitivity about "gifted talk" might be the mark of a gifted rather than a wolf.

I know I will be thought a hard hearted witch for this but I think I am still seriouly considering going for Xzzy..... sad becasue he is so enthusiastic but we don't have the luxury of numbers to be too nice....

[Nogrod]

So... to make matters clear... what do you think about xyzzy? Is there a possibility to vote for him, or are we leaving this out? I am for that if nothing, it would not harm the village - probably. But if someone else, then someone else... just to know who to vote for.Seven votes to cast - probably six as Xyzzy is one of them - and the leaders in votes have two each... Everything is possible.

[Macalaure]

The two I'm suspicious of to some degree at the moment are only tgwbs and Glirdan. Lynching Glirdan on Day One has seldomly been a good idea, so I would prefer tgwbs.

++ the guy who be short

I don't get the feeling anything is going to happen in the last half hour to change my mind. Better to start the voting frenzy now than with only 10 minutes to go.

[Nogrod]

I feel uneasy about TGWBS but fear that sensitivity about "gifted talk" might be the mark of a gifted rather than a wolf.Here I must disagree. A gifted would not show that sensitivity, he would just ignore the talk and stay out of the discussion...

[Brinniel]

Brinniel - As the only North American here now - do you know if he is likely to be on school vacation now? UK kids are.....
Well, spring break in the US varies in each city. Looking at his age I'd say he's a freshman...which can be either junior high or high school. Amazing at what one can do on the internet though...I just checked the Ozark High School website and their spring break was a few weeks back. Of course, even though he is from Ozark, that does not necessarily mean he goes to that school. From what it looks like, he is currently at school (is Missouri in EST or CST? I'm not sure..), but I could be completely off on this.

I think it would be a waste of toDay to vote xyzzy, when we can vote for someone who is actually suspicious. I plan to give him at least another Day to show up and I ask that everyone else does the same.

Ack..I'm running out of time to make a decision. I still want to analyze Roa and Gil. Another post coming...

[Macalaure]

Here I must disagree. A gifted would not show that sensitivity, he would just ignore the talk and stay out of the discussion...
Exactly. (though I remember a certain Rangrod from Valier's last game who did act similar ;) )

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, from what Menel said on the admin thread, it seems that it's up to us whether to lynch or not xyzzy. For this, I'd maybe reconsider and wait. Reversing Nogrod's theory, he's 10/13 an ordo, so even if he does not do anything, he is still an ordo to count against the wolf numbers. If he were a wolf though, it would be very, very, very nasty to have him around, even lynch all the wolves and then kill each other without even thinking about him. Very scary.

Wait, will read if someone has posted now and then probably cast my vote...

[Mithalwen]

Oh I thought Mo was Montana and mountains.... gah...

[Mithalwen]

However ..there is probably a wolf among us now ... if Xyzzy is a wolf, then saying it is too mean to lynch a newbie no show first day is a good cover....

[Nogrod]

Even if I agree with Macalaure with his vote as a reasonable try toDay I somewhat object to his way of playing it. No discussion, no further points or taking part on the discussion... Looks a bit too detached to me. A wolf would do just like that. Have a case and stick to it without surrendering yourself to the discussions too much as someone might start suspecting you (look how Legate decided to start suspecting me out of nowhere as soon as I started to post more... :D ).

Sorry to be this outspoken now. I mean not to confuse, but as I have been spared of the most suspicions I'm pretty high on the Nightly kill-list and wish to say what I can.

So look closely for Macalaure toMorrow. And Roa too. Her slightly jumping on Gil was something I wouldn't wait from her were she an innocent, I'm afraid. But where she a wolf it was a mistake on her part and she rarely makes them... :confused:

[Brinniel]

but i got a little itch from Lommy's post... she just came right out and tried to defend Roa... could be a virtuous villager, but everyone should know that if they are an ordinary, they are on their own
While Lommy's words that Roa is making sense could cause some questioning, I do not think that is a good enough reason to vote for her. Gil may have been the first to vote for Lommy, but he did so only after tgwbs pointed out his suspicions of her. Gil seems suspicious to me, but too often the village lynches him and he turns out innocent, so I'm not so sure...

I could consider tgwbs, but I agree with Nogrod that if he is innocent, he could be good to have around. I will not vote for him toDay, but will examine him later.

[Nogrod]

Upgrading the vote.

Lommy -> Glirdan
Sixth -> Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Sixth (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1)
Roa -> tgwbs (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1)
Gil -> Lommy (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1, Lommy 1)
tgwbs -> Lommy (Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1)
Mac -> tgwbs (Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2)

Not voted: Brinniel, Nogrod, Mith, Legate, Rikae, Xyzzy.

I might indeed add Macalaure to my voting-list, but I'm afraid it's getting to the frenzy stuff which very rarely brings good results (it has produced them to be sure).

[Mithalwen]

I don't want to leave this to a last panic. If noone is of the same mind then it fair enough. This is cruel but I would rather hang fire on TGWBS and take my chance - Brinniel we don't have later ...

++ Xyzzy

[Nogrod]

If there is to be a Xyzzy vote, I might consider joining it as the other possibilities look quite problematic.

I might go more likely to Macalaure than tgwbs, but that's a hard decision as I would like to see both of them on our side. Somehow Mac's way of playing this evening has unnerved me. It's too clean and kind of disinterested, too self-securing... the marks of a wolf play.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, seems this makes it clear to me. *glances at the clock*

Nogrod, from your last words, I'm gonna close an eye or two... quite daring for a wolf to post something like that... though I think you are very inventive one... but I'm returning to my early suspicion.

++Thinlómien

[Brinniel]

Normally, when someone comes out as a gifted, we don't know if they're telling the truth or not, and all we have is that no one else is saying "No, they're lying- it's really me!" In this game, we don't know if we even have gifted, let alone being able to tell if a "revealed gifted" is lying or not. Remember- we don't have retractable votes this game. There won't be a last minute turn around or sudden random bandwagon. At least, such an occurance is highly unlikely. If someone is feeling pressure, gifted or wolf alike, they would have to do something well before the last minute. A gifted being suspected may choose to not risk waiting it out. At the same time, a wolf may do the same, banking on the fact that the pretended role may not even really exist. Yes, it would be risky for them to do so, but far less risky, since we don't know what we have and what we don't. The wolves may be planning on using that to their advantage, and I wanted to make sure that everyone was aware of it and on the look out.

Gifteds, if they are in this game, will just have to be more clever than that.

While at the surface, it seems Roa is trying to be helpful with this reasoning, I can just as easily see a wolf doing this to confuse people. In my last game, Roa was the cobbler and her comments were not the least bit helpful. This game, we don't even know if we have a cobbler, yet I do not doubt that a werewolf would use Day One to confuse. Roa could be innocent, but right now it is difficult to say. At this time, I am more inclined to think her a possible wolf.

[Mithalwen]

Yes... I was thinking of him with his instant rejection of teh Xyzzy vote suggestion..of course he may just be a more noble person than me!!!!

[Nogrod]

Five votes left. Four if Rikae does not appear from somewhere... Three required for a lynch this far.

Mac anyone?

Or then Xyzzy?

EDIT: X'd with a vote etc...

[Mithalwen]

Curse you last minuters ..I don't see that Lommy is supiscious and now we may lose her ..gah non retractable votes.... grrrrrrr

[Macalaure]

I did an 'early' tgwbs-vote to get a waggon rolling. Obviously it worked the other way around. I don't care whether I'm suspected or not, but that current vote for Lommy is a shot in the dark which I would like to highly disencourage!

[Rikae]

Sorry; I seem to have had the wrong time in mind as the deadline for some reason.

For reasons previously stated (sorry, I haven't had time to read the last few posts):

++Glirdan

[Mithalwen]

but then ....MacIwouldhave needed to study..one for another day...... out of my hands...for now

[Nogrod]

I don't like Lommy going with such futile reasons.

Legate: you should be watched really closely from now on.

[Mithalwen]

Noggin ...maybe you should save your daughter? :p

[Brinniel]

Six minutes to go...

I already said I would not vote for Glirdan, Lommy, xyzzy, and Sixth and I still plan not to.

If I had more time, I'd put more consideration at tgwbs, whom a lot seem to be suspicious towards. But he's not at the top of my list, so he will have to wait.

Gil is too often suspicious and ends up innocent, so I will not vote him toDay.

That leaves Roa:

++Roa

It probably won't make much of a difference at this point, but for me, she remains the most suspicious.

[Nogrod]

Nothing else to do now. Better to shoot at darkness with Glirdy than Lommy.

++ Glirdan

So bad. But we'll see toMorrow (those who see it) how this went and who were involved...

[Macalaure]

Brinn!

Why vote Roa now?

[Nogrod]

I guess we got lots to think from these last moments for toMorrow...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, if you said earlier, I might have voted for xyzzy. I hope I'm not wrong. The main point is, if nothing else, I stand elliminating one of my suspects. And at least the Lommy voters seem not wolves to me.

[Mithalwen]

Cop out or conscience of course...time will tell which!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Whatever we tried to do, rumble still happened :o

[Meneltarmacil]

Day 1 is over. Glirdan has been selected for lynching.

[Brinniel]

Because I think tgwbs may be as innocent as Lommy.

And I promised not to vote Glirdan.

EDIT: X-ed with Menel. Sorry...

[Meneltarmacil]

(That's quite alright, Brinniel. :) )

"Five goats... Six goats... This isn't working... Why couldn't they be sheep..."

"LYNCH HIM!"

Glirdan turned to see an angry mob of villagers coming after him.

"Lynch? What's going on? Why am I being lynched? Where am I? Who are you?" the hermit gibbered.

The villagers grabbed him and hauled him off to the gallows anyway.

When they were halfway there, however, something strange happened. Glirdan threw them off with surprising ease. The villagers looked on in horror as he grew taller and sprouted thick, dark grey fur along with yellowish fangs.

His transformation complete, Glirdan the Werewolf threw back his head and let out a terrifying howl. He charged at the villagers, enraged.

The villagers, fighting for their lives, picked up some large rocks nearby and started throwing them at the charging wolf. Luckily, one of them hit him in the head, knocking him to the ground. The villagers continued to throw rocks until they were sure he was dead.

The villagers started celebrating, as they had killed their first werewolf.

Alive:
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Roa_Aoife
the guy who be short
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien
xyzzy

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Devoured by Wolves on Night 1
Glirdan (Werewolf): Stoned to death by Villagers on Day 1

It is now Night 2.

[xyzzy]

Edit: What are you talking about? I didn't accidently discuss the game at night outside the thread at night.

A wizard did it.

[Meneltarmacil]

Xyzzy, please discuss issues of that sort on the admin thread. It's nighttime here, so players can't post on this thread right now.

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, I'm starting Day 2. Nobody has died. You may begin posting.

[Nogrod]

I have a suggestion. I hope you agree with it.

So how about we just make a deal that no one discusses the events of the last Night and uses none of the information s/he might have gained, direct or indirect, as evidence or reason to back up any of her/his views in-game?

The other possibility surely is that we exploit all there is, but I think that would not be wise if we wish to maintain something like a fair play here.

Surely everyone is allowed to make her/his deductions of things that have happened outside the game-thread - I have done a lot myself already. But let us try to not use them as arguments in-game and try to find other ways to make our points about suspicions and feeling easier about people?

Ok?

[Macalaure]

Here are a few things I've been thinking about during the night. It doesn't take into account anything that happened around the deadline. It's mainly a look at the votes and a closer look at two suspicious ones.


So...

1. Lommy for Glirdan ~ Suspicious, more beneath.

2. Sixth for Glirdan ~ No way would a wolf have voted like this.

3. Glirdan for Sixth ~ -/-

4. Roa for tgwbs ~ I agree with her reasoning for tgwbs and would call it an innocentish vote, though with Roa you can never be sure.

5. Gil for Lommy ~ What can you say about this? I never know what to do with Gil. I'll leave him to you.

6. tgwbs for Lommy ~ If he's evil, then this vote would have been good move to save Glirdan. His reasoning isn't the best.

7. Mac, that's me, for tgwbs ~ I admit that, if Lommy is evil, then this vote looks really, really ugly.


Now it's Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, tgwbs 2 and the interesting part begins. I rule out the possibility that Glirdan, Lommy and tgwbs are our wolves. Their early Day One behaviour would've been too suicidal. I think it's quite possible that one of the latter two is the second wolf, which gives a high probability that the third wolf (assuming that is their number) was still out there at this time, thinking how he could save Glirdan and the other. Would you vote the innocent one and risk looking bad yourself later, or throw your vote away and hope the best?


8. Mith for Xyzzy ~ This looks like throwing away, but she was encouraging everybody to follow her vote. I think it looks quite innocentish.

9. Legate for Lommy ~ One could look at this as an attempt to save Glirdan, but his suspicions of Lommy seem honest.

10. Rikae for Glirdan ~ No wolvish vote, as it puts Glirdan back into the running.

11. Brinn for Roa ~ Suspicious, more beneath.

12. Nogrod for Glirdan ~ The vote looks good if Lommy is innocent, of course, and if we had a combo of Glirdan-Lommy-Nogrod, then he wouldn't have attacked my vote for tgwbs like he did. I regard his vote as innocentish, though I don't forget that the evil Nogrod has a history of backstabbing his comrades.



On Lommy: Her vote looks too smooth for my liking. I sense some wolf-on-wolf-action here. Lommy had to vote early, and if she's evil she had to put up a vote that would be defendable later on. For both, evil and good Lommy, voting Glirdan was the only real option. Also, it looks like she was voting him while disencouraging everbody else to follow her:He is suspicious, but I'm not sure if he's guilty.
He looks quite bad. (Though possibly he looks too bad to be a real baddie. :rolleyes: )
I must say that the evidence against him is in a way quite feeble


On Brinniel: Her first post when she returned is a defence of Glirdan (and Lommy!), this especially looks not well:Glirdan: Yes, his behaviour earlier was a bit odd, but too often the ones who seem so obviously suspicious turn out to be innocent.She then votes Roa, a throwaway vote, especially when there are no retractions. She doesn't want to vote Glirdan and Lommy. She says she doesn't want to vote tgwbs because she has no time and wants to examine him later. Wouldn't it have been better to look at tgwbs now and Roa later, given the vote count? Of course, this is only Brinn's second game, so this is really not definite evidence, but if Lommy xor tgwbs are a wolf, then Brinniel could well be the third.



Conclusion (concerning votes, not overall suspicion):


suspicious ~ Lommy, Brinn

somewhat suspicious ~ tgwbs

unsure ~ Gil, Legate

somewhat innocent ~ Roa, Rikae, Nogrod

innocent ~ Sixth, Mith

[Nogrod]

I must both agree and disagree with you Macalaure. :D
For both, evil and good Lommy, voting Glirdan was the only real option.I think so too. But things being thus, I can't see it as an argument towards her guilt in any way. You say she discouraged others to follow her way. True in a sense. But that depends on how we interpret her "doubts" about her vote. I must say - had I been in her position - I would have done exactly the same: said that sadly I have to vote now and there are no other sensible candidates to vote but I'm afraid lynching Glirdy on Day1 doesn't normally produce good things.

That said, I wouldn't still say Lommy is an innocent. As I said, as forced to make the decision I wished to shoot in the dark with Glirdy more than Lommy (and miraculously it paid off!), but I hope there will be some light with Lommy toDay. There is too little of anything from her yet to make any balanced decision.

About Brinn I'd say the same thing, yes and no.
She then votes Roa, a throwaway vote, especially when there are no retractions. She doesn't want to vote Glirdan and Lommy. She says she doesn't want to vote tgwbs because she has no time and wants to examine him later. Wouldn't it have been better to look at tgwbs now and Roa later, given the vote count?You're right that her vote for Roa looks pretty weird. Probably too weird as any wolf would know that that kind of voting raises too many eyebrows? But your second point is a bit unfair I'd say. It looks like she was getting into looking at Roa about 15 minutes before the deadline when there still were 6 people who had not voted and two votes were the highest. So the vote count on that moment was not what it was when she voted two minutes before the DL (and honestly: do you think someone could "analyse" tgwbs in less than two minutes?). So I must say that your point looks a bit fabricated.

That said, her decision in the end to vote for Roa is quite odd. Here I do agree.


tgwbs for Lommy ~ If he's evil, then this vote would have been good move to save Glirdan. His reasoning isn't the best.This is a point with which I don't disagree at all! :D I must say I will be looking tgwbs much more closely toDay. He raised my suspicions yesterDay and this kind of stuff brings me back to suspect him even more. Good point.

[The Sixth Wizard]

Well hello fellow Were-wolvers! I am back once again a mere hour past the switch...

I would suggest to not be too strict about my companion in wizardry, the Sixth Wizard. It's not nice to lynch somebody on the first Day of his first game, especially when he's no longer there to defend himself.
Hark! A voice of reason!

...Lommy: Voted for the one that was clearly (to my mind at least) the most suspicious-looking at the time of her vote. Were she a wolf she would admittedly have brains to do the same. But lynching on Day1 a player who could be of a big help later just because of that is IMHO very short-sighted. Proposing that is almost lupine...

...Glirdan: I don't like "retaliatory" voting at all and think it's a safe position to the wolves to hide as many tend to "understand" that kind of thing. But in the end - thinking of the cause of the villagers - it's pretty counter-productive as a villager should only try to get the wolves, not to retaliate....

...tgwbs: This I find somewhat suspicious or at least unnerving. He had time to play and took actively part in it but then decided to go for his first suspicion (quite weakly built case - and if one thinks of it - not an obvious choise of an innocent villager). Sad to say, but in the last game he was voting in a similar-feeling detached manner. I suspected him of that then and he turned out to be a wolf. . .


Speaking of shorty ;) , we should probably now suspect those who were kinda agreeing with Glirdan. Reading back over the posts:

I don't think Thinlomien was using some wolf kill wolf strategy. I think that might just be a bit too open on the first day. Just my opinion.

TGWBS was suspicious against Lommy and Lommy was anti-Glirdan. Plus he was suspicious about me! (the nerve :eek: ) He then has a go at Mac, and Roa (innocents I think), and proceeds to vote for Lommy. I am pretty sure he's a werewolf, myself.

Legate probably not. But he does say TGWBS is honest, which I am sure he is not.

Gil-galad voted for Lommy but I don't think he's a werewolf.

Mithalwen seems to be one of the good guys. So's Roa.

Brinniel: I think this might be our wolf. In a vote for Roa maybe she's trying to take some of the heat off Glirdan. That's not very concealed, but it's her second game...

Nogrod, good guys. Rather a voice of reason. Gifted?

As you can see I am a great Thinlomien supporter I'm afraid. :cool:


So my opinions are that TGWBS, Legate(?) and Brin are the most likely in my mind to be werewolves at this stage in the game.

[xyzzy]

...I'm startlingly confused.

So, TGWBS sounds dangerous. Who's Lommy? Is that the Thin-something-or-another-with-non-English-characters-thrown-in guy? Wow, I'm confused...

I think I'll probably vote for TGWBS, another individual with whom I'm not familiar, but not immediately, in case something new comes up.

Gil-galad voted for Lommy but I don't think he's a werewolf.
Which one - GG or Lommy?

[The Sixth Wizard]

Sorry, Lommy = Thinlomien and I meant Gil-Galad

[Brinniel]

After voting Roa yesterday, I ended up kicking myself...hard. Yes, she was the most suspicious for me at the time, but after I posted, I realized how dumb and suspicious I was making myself look with a throwaway vote. My second choice probably would've been to vote Glirdan, and while I still thought him innocent then, I would've rather had him lynched than possibly innocent Lommy and tgwbs, who both could be very helpful if they are on our side. Yet, I already said I wouldn't vote Glirdan and I don't like changing my word without a good enough reason.

When I first started ww, I thought I'd be so good at sniffing out the wolves...how wrong I was. Glirdan reminded me of Manwe from the last game, who turned out innocent. I honestly did not think a werewolf would act so obviously suspicious. Apparently, I'm quite terrible at this... :rolleyes:

Anyways, the lynching of a werewolf Glirdan, has indeed helped me come up with some thoughts:

Mac stated this early on in response to Legate:
There are more stupid wolves than one might think
His comment points out that there are in fact wolves who do put out an odd behaviour and act suspicious. At a time when Glirdan was acting so obviously suspicious, I don't think a fellow wolf would point that out. This makes Mac seem more innocent to me.

Lommy was the first to vote for Glirdan, not followed long after by Sixth. While both had no choice but to vote earlier on, I do not think either would pull a wolf on wolf vote so early in the game when no one else has even voted. I feel pretty sure both are innocent. Of course, I've been pretty off so far, so who knows...

Yesterday, I felt pretty suspicious about Roa, but now I know that Glirdan was a werewolf, I think my suspicions were quite misguided. Early on, there was a misunderstanding between the two where Glirdan jumps on Roa, and Roa retaliates. Now, of course misunderstandings can happen between wolves, most certainly to misguide us innocents, but I do not think they would attempt this within the first few posts of Day One. Glirdan's attitude towards Roa and vice versa makes me think her much less suspicious than before, and unless something dramatically changes toDay, I do not think I will vote for her again for now.

Later, I will go back and look through yesterDay's posts and look for suspicious players.

Well, we're down one wolf...two more to go? Ah..that's the difficult thing about these mystery roles. Boy, will we be lucky if we catch another toDay. Already, I see the suspicions towards me coming, and so in my defense, I will honestly state that Day One was a completely misguided Day for me. Do not take my stupidity and poor judgements for werewolfery. And hopefully toDay I will be slightly (or rather, a lot) more accurate in figuring out who the werewolf might be...

[Rikae]

We got one!
What was that you were saying last night, Legate? ...:D

Since we have no kill today, I'm assuming the wolves' intended victim was protected? Kudos to our ranger - nice work!

I still find TGWBS suspicious, as I did yesterday. His vote tying Lommy with Were-Glirdan only makes him look worse, but more suspicious still is Brinniel, who starts off day one by posting an 'empty' post (not necessarily suspicious, as I've pointed out); promises not to vote for a wolf (along with a passel of others), and when the lynchee is definitely Glirdan, she posts this:

Because I think tgwbs may be as innocent as Lommy.
And I promised not to vote Glirdan.
EDIT: X-ed with Menel. Sorry...
What? As innocent as Lommy? I don't find Lommy especially suspicious, but we certainly don't know she's innocent...(perhaps Brinniel does?); and, now that the jig is up, she won't say she thinks Glirdan is innocent, no, certainly not "as innocent as Lommy" or "innocent as TBWBS"! Only that she promised not to vote for him.

I'm inclined to think Sixth and Nogrod are innocent because of their votes yesterday.

EDIT: x'd with Brinniel.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, I made it. Since 4 of the 13 villagers (by my count) voted Glirdan, I wonder if a wolf might not be hiding among them in a safe spot. I'm going to do an analysis on them, and if I have time, I'll be back with more.

IN the mean time, here's a list of who thought Glirdan was innocent, who expressed suspicion of him (not necessarily voting for him), and who ignored him all together:

Unsure/Innocent
Rikae
Thinlomien
Brinniel
Mith

Suspicion
Roa
Sitxh Wizard
Mac
Nogrod

Not mentioned
TGWBS
Gil
Xyzzy

Mentioned only
Legate

Back soon, hopefully.

[Roa_Aoife]

Glirdan Voters-
Lommy, 1st vote, put Glirdan in running
Sixth Wizard, 2nd vote, gave him a definite lead
Rikae, 3rd vote, put Glirdan in lead again
Nogrod, 4th vote, changed no positions

Strictly by placement of the votes, Sixth looks most innocent (especially given Glirdan's reaction), followed by Rikae, then Lommy. Nogrod's vote doesn't make him suspicious, per se, but it doesn't clear him either, especially, since, as a wolf, he would be doing the safest possible thing he could do. So, I'll start with him and the move backward in my suspicion list, finishing with Sixth. *buckles in for a long ride* I'll be back shortly.

[Gil-Galad]

time for my math to come in now...


1. Lommy for Glirdan

2. Sixth for Glirdan

3. Glirdan for Sixth

4. Roa for tgwbs

5. Gil for Lommy

6. tgwbs for Lommy

7. Mac for tgwbs

8. Mith for Xyzzy

9. Legate for Lommy

10. Rikae for Glirdan

11. Brinn for Roa

12. Nogrod for Glirdan

Lommy, sixth, nogrod and rikae are the only ones to have voted for Glirdan, so by following the math, they obviously tend to be the more innocent ones then. what bugs me the most about yesterday is the irractic voting from alot of people, usually bandwagons spring up.

Mithalwen and Brinniel both voted for somebody that was not really under specualtion, it could be that they were confused vilalgers not knowing who exactly to vote for or desperate wolves trying to waste votes...

another thing that bugs me today, is Macalaures post, is it a conicendence that your inncoent list contains Mith and Sixth, which if i do math again, included your self will equal the remaining wolves? (i'm uncertain right now of how many wolves we have in the vilalge, is it three or four?) if it is indeed only 3 wolves then i will proabaly let this accusation slide. but if it is four then that would explain for sixth, trying to be sneaky on his first time. also, Glirdan vote for sixth, as a safety thing, would then draw suspicion off of Sixth who may be a wolf

in conclusion, here is my list... which i stole from mac's post

suspicious ~ Lommy, sixth

somewhat suspicious ~ Mithalwen, Macalaure

unsure ~ Tgwbs, Legate,

somewhat innocent ~ Roa, Rikae, Nogrod, Xyzzy



also, Glirdan vote for sixth, as a safety thing, would then draw suspicion off of Sixth who may be a wolf. i can't beleive i almsot forgot this, but it makes os much sense.

Glirdan = wolf

Glirdan voted for sixth after he himself received 2 votes, so he could try and save a fellow wolf by voting for them, thus drawing any suspicion off of sixth.

Sixth = wolf?

still to be determined, but i'm fairly certain my vote will be on Sixth... i don't like that tricky buisness glirdan has left behind for us to do...

[Roa_Aoife]

Glirdan voted for sixth after he himself received 2 votes, so he could try and save a fellow wolf by voting for them, thus drawing any suspicion off of sixth.

Nice try, but only two people had voted. Sixth's vote and reasoning made him very suspicious, and the only reason he did not recieve more votes was because it was his first day of his first game, and everyone wanted to be nice. Glirdan's vote for Sixth clears him, if anything, since, given the timing, a turn around was highly possible. "Playing a wolf 101: When in doubt, throw a suspicious innocent to the mob."

I haven't dropped my suspicion of you since Day 1, and this certainly isn't abating it now.

[Gil-Galad]

Nice try, but only two people had voted. Sixth's vote and reasoning made him very suspicious, and the only reason he did not recieve more votes was because it was his first day of his first game, and everyone wanted to be nice. Glirdan's vote for Sixth clears him, if anything, since, given the timing, a turn around was highly possible. "Playing a wolf 101: When in doubt, throw a suspicious innocent to the mob."

I haven't dropped my suspicion of you since Day 1, and this certainly isn't abating it now.


now don't tell me your falling for the whole compassion thing too? as i said before, there is nobody you can trust in WW unless absolutely cleared by the Seer, which we don't know so far, but if you are defending sixth, then you are raising suspicion to yourself, for you and sitxh could be the other wolves we are hunting...

[Brinniel]

Responding to Rikae:

My last comment was a very rushed post, and what I wrote didn't exactly come out how I meant to say it. Lommy could very well be a wolf, though I still think her more innocent for reasons stated above.

At the time I voted, it looked like Lommy could be lynched, and there were a few who really wanted to save her. After all, the reasons to vote for her weren't good enough in my opinion, especially when she had no choice but to vote early on. At that moment, it looked like the only way to save her would be by voting tgwbs, and while I really have no clue if he is innocent or not, nor did I yesterday, I did not want to be the one responsible for lynching a possibly innocent tgwbs. tgwbs does make good analysis, and if he is innocent, I would hate to lose him so early in the game. Looking back at it, I could've (and maybe should've) voted for Glirdan, but I cross-posted with Rikae and voted before Nogrod and didn't think the voting would swing his way. And I chose not to vote for him for reasons I stated in my last post. I thought it would be bad of me to suddenly change my position...boy was I wrong... :o

Roa- Okay, correct me if I'm wrong, but checking back, it was Rikae's vote for Glirdan that tied him with Lommy. Nogrod's vote was what decided his fate. Makes Nogrod look pretty innocent to me.

[Roa_Aoife]

Roa- Okay, correct me if I'm wrong, but checking back, it was Rikae's vote for Glirdan that tied him with Lommy. Nogrod's vote was what decided his fate. Makes Nogrod look pretty innocent to me.

You're right- I missed Legate's vote, who put Lommy in the lead over Glirdan and TGWBS. Rikae brought Glirdan up with her vote to tie him.

I question however- Assuming Nogrod is a wolf (a big assumption, but as I'm analyzing him right now and it doesn't look good, I'm willing to make it) where could he have voted? Gone for Xyzzy- a throw away vote, which would no doubt get heat? Voted Lommy to put her in the lead- if Lommy is innocent, and she definately appears that way, it clearly looks like an attempt to save Glirdan? Voted TGWBS- a three way tie which would be decided by dice roll, allowing a chance for Glirdan to die anyways, thus again looking like an attempt to protect Glirdan? Or, vote Glirdan- sealing his companion's fate but making him look innocent in return, thus allowing him a few days of un suspicion to drive the village as he pleases?

I tell you now, I wouldn't hesitate to sacrifice a fellow wolf. No "wise wolf" would. I wouldn't put it past Nogrod at all. Not to mention, all of the waffling he did before hand. (All coming up in my analysis.)

[Rikae]

Oh, now I see why there wasn't a wolf kill. It still does give us an advantage, anyway!

Regarding Nogrod, while I understand the possiblity of a wolf sacrificing another wolf, I don't think it would be likely at such an early stage. If Nogrod had saved Glirdan by voting for someone else, it wouldn't reflect badly on Nogrod until Glirdan's role was revealed, after all. The day one lynchee is usually innocent, anyway; if a wolf Nogrod had voted for TGWBS or Lommy, he could have saved his fellow wolf and "saving Glirdan" wouldn't be much of an issue if Glirdan wasn't a known wolf. It would look like a shot in the dark, which everyone's vote pretty much would be on Day 1.

[Roa_Aoife]

Regarding Nogrod, while I understand the possiblity of a wolf sacrificing another wolf, I don't think it would be likely at such an early stage.

Don't be so sure- it's happened before. Ask Lommy. She's in the Fenris Wolf club because of her fellow wolf Ang, who managed to survive till the very last day, mostly because everyone regarded him as innocent for voting her. If I'm not mistaken, he was the deciding fact, when a vote the other way would have lynched someone else entirely. I remember- it was my very first game, and I was one of those who believed Ang innocent. I've done the very same thing, and so have many others.

[Nogrod]

Unusually I seem to be at least half-awake at this hour and can't resist commenting on a few points.

It's funny that Roa and an over-active Gil (does this sudden activity tell us anything? he's a wolf = bad for us, or he's just actually starting to play the game = good for us) are having a row. That would suggest to me that at least another one of them is innocent. If they were both wolves they would not argue like that as it would be quite clear that Roa could talk Gil to the gallows in a wink of an eye if she so wanted.


Don't be so sure- it's happened before. Ask Lommy. She's in the Fenris Wolf club because of her fellow wolf Ang, who managed to survive till the very last day, mostly because everyone regarded him as innocent for voting her.I agree with the "don't be so sure" -part here. Helping to lynch a mate is a good tactics for a werewolf in certain situations. I've done that myself as Roa has been keen to remind you.

But I'm a bit puzzled why always so intelligent Roa is so happy to jump on my vote and to try and make an issue out of it. It's the same kind of argument that some people here seem to throw on Lommy. "It was the reasonable thing to do (her vote on Glirdy and my vote on Glirdy), but if s/he were a wolf, s/he would have done the same..." That's hardly an argument. If a vote is reasonable for an innocent and if a witty wolf would thence do the same thing, it can't be counted as an argument for someone's lupinity.

With that logic everyone who voted reasonably should be seen as especially suspicious.

And that's hardly the way Roa herself thinks about the matters, right? I don't remember seeing Roa who would have carried the card of random voting yet... :p

Now I need to get to sleep at last. Sad I didn't have time to see Roa's analysis which I kind of hoped for. It seems she makes it with piety - at least with what comes to the time she has spent with it... :cool:

[Roa_Aoife]

But I'm a bit puzzled why always so intelligent Roa is so happy to jump on my vote and to try and make an issue out of it. It's the same kind of argument that some people here seem to throw on Lommy.

It's not that I find your vote suspicious. In fact if it were your vote alone, I wouldn't find you suspicious at all. (Well, at least not more suspicious than anyone else.) I'm merely arguing that it doesn't make you unsuspicious, if that makes any sense. People are keen to exonerate you for the placement of your vote. I'm telling them why that's foolish.

Now I need to get to sleep at last. Sad I didn't have time to see Roa's analysis which I kind of hoped for. It seems she makes it with piety - at least with what comes to the time she has spent with it...

I'm especially pious when analyzing you, dear. :Merisu: (Finally found a use for that!) If you want it done quickly next time, don't post so much.

[The Sixth Wizard]

Oh man, people I thought were innocent are plastering ridiculous accusations over each other, this only makes it harder to tell who's the wolf . . . What's more they're plastering things over me! :D

Glirdan voted for sixth after he himself received 2 votes, so he could try and save a fellow wolf by voting for them, thus drawing any suspicion off of sixth.

That was a bit of a big assumption, don't you think? After only two votes, both near the start of the day, one by a newbie (me) and one by a suspect (Lommy), do you think Glirdan would really have given himself up to his fate to make me look completely innocent? And do you think that I would have accused him so early on the game?

now don't tell me your falling for the whole compassion thing too? as i said before, there is nobody you can trust in WW unless absolutely cleared by the Seer, which we don't know so far, but if you are defending sixth, then you are raising suspicion to yourself, for you and sitxh could be the other wolves we are hunting...

Cobbler?

My new list of suspects...

TGWBS
Legate of Amon Lanc
Brinniel
Gil-Galad

Retalitory? Moi? :Merisu: :D

[Roa_Aoife]

Nogrod (Summary in regular, thoughts in Itallics, final analysis in Bold)
Day 1

1st post - Agrees with Mac about people bemoaning Day 1, says the village should keep talking with less roleplay, will suspect people more for saying Day 1's are useless, thinks Roa was making a reasonable point, but remembers Roa is reasonable as a villain, hesitates to lynch Glirdy based on record, confirms that Lommy has no choice but to vote early

Standard "Day 1's are NOT useless" spiel, to be expected, interesting "Roa makes sense but could still be evil" point, followed by, "Glirdy looks bad but could be innocent," followed by, "Loomy has a valid excuse, but could be using that to her evil advantage." Waaaay more waffling in the first post than I expect from Nogrod. Very inconclusive for him. Sets off some alarms.

2nd post - Thinks Mac, Rikae, and Roa are being "cool and wise" but worries that they could be deceptive, thought Rikae was suspicious for point against Roa, but finds her sharing the suspicion of TGWBS, thinks TGWBS suspicion of Lommy is suspicious, doesn't think Lommy is innocent, but thinks the case against her is worrying, thinks that a wise wolf relaxes on Day 1, but doesn't rule out a wolf trying to steer the voting, concerned by Legate, also sixth, but doesn't want to lynch him on his first day.

Again with the waffling. For talking so much, he says very little of impact. His best suspicion is TGWBS, but basically for his case against Lommy, whom NOgrod waffles over some more. This is followed by a lot of, "So and so is confusing, so and so is odd" but nothing concrete. He said himself that a wise wolf sits back and lets the innocents decide who to lynch- so far, his posting style looks like just that. Even worse, he looks like what Iwas doing as a cobbler, throwing a little bit of suspicion everywhere and letting the innocents decide who to go after.

3rd post - points out that the fault of a "flood" is not the first poster but those who want to carry on the discussion, thinks the discussion surrounding Roa's post will be usefull later.

Actually, this post seems fine. At least he says something somewhat definite.

4th post - Lists the votes and the stated reasons for each vote, plus vote count

He's putting some meat into his vote counts now. I wonder if he'll draw any conclusions or continue waffling.

5th post -
Lommy's vote for Glirdan- not suspicious, but doesn't make her innocent, doesn't want to lynch her just yet.
See: Waffling
Sixth's vote for Glirdan- see Lommy
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/waffling
Glirdan's vote for Sixth - doesn't like retaliatory voting, thinks it's counter productive to never vote like that, tangent about Day 1's, uncomforatble lynching Glirdan, wants to think about it
What's that sign say? oh, "Waffle House"
Roa for TGWBS - doesn't think the reasoning is good, doesn't want to vote her with out more evidence
Most conclusive thing yet
Gil for Lommy - disturbing, "confused" about his mentioning of the gifteds, wonders about Roa suspecting Gil for the same reason, (?) doesn't want to lynch him for the same reasons he doesn't want to lynch Glirdan- the two usually turn out innocent
That defense almost worked for the Lupine Glirdan. Almost.
TGWBS for Lommy - somewhat suspicious and unnerving, thinks the case is weak, thinks TGWBS is voting in the same way he did when he was a wolf (last game), suspected him then for the same reasons, not impossible for him to be a wolf two days in a row, doesn't want to vote him on Day 1.
He almost had it, he really did. Almost a genuine solid anything, but it was not to be. Dashed upon the accursed rocks of "But he could be helpful if he's not evil, even though he's clearly evil looking."
Feels more unsure of everything, vaguely pointing to the quiet

This is the most surprising of all. The normal Nogrod will usually aim for the quiet first, but here his gesturung towards them is almost feeble! I know you like to be cautious, but this is taking it too far. Where's the Nogrod who pulled a case against me literally out of thin air? I'm getting deeply concerned by this behavior.

6th post - question about time

7th post - Wants to relook at TGWBS, gives credence to Mith's plan to lynch xyzzy, says mathmatically he has about a 3/13 chance of being a wolf

The waffling aside, this has all the alarms ringing. Just a few posts ago, we had a possiblity of catching a wolf. Now he might go for a mostly random vote? He didn't want to kill Sixth because it was his first day of his first game, but the same doesn't apply to Xyzzy? Further more, he has a perfectly good lynch candidate, the most suspicion person he has, and somehow now, he's dropped him. What happened to looking at TGWBS further? This looks a great deal like a wolf trying to feel out his fellow players to see where the lynch is likely to go.

8th post - worries that waiting to lynch xyzzy will cause us to forget him enitrely, still "puzzled" by TGWBS, some of what TGWBS says makes sense, but other things are more suspicious, thinks TGWBS feels more malevolent than inocent, hopes Brinniel returns, wonders where Rikae is

Again he thinks TGWBS is supicious, but does nothing about it.

9th post - Thinks that lynching xyzzy may be best if she isn't coming back, but is unsure about that, thinks it's better if we vote for a possible wolf who's been present

And TGWBS doesn't count? Oh right, if he's innocent (because he's clearly not suspicious in anyway) he'll be very useful later

10th post - Thoughts on everyone Conclusions, maybe?
Upstairs
Gil and Glirdan - Post normally and look highly suspicious. Could go either way. Waffle, waffle, waffle
Sixth - first timer, doesn't want to vote for him
Roa and Thin - could be evil, but doesn't want to vote for them with so little evidence
I almost wouldn't mind him suspecting me, if it meant he be conclusive about something
Mac and Mith - not suspicious at all, but doesn't want to call them innocents "No way"
Brinniel - Sensible, doesn't suspect her anymore than anyone else
that's like a conclusion
Downstairs
Rikae and Legate - slightly suspicious
first I've heard of it
TGWBS - Worried about him, but still not dure he wants to lynch him
Of course not, why lynch someone you suspect, when you can lynch someone you have even more doubts about?
Xyzzy - already discussed
last resort safety vote, got it.

One or two wolves could be in upstairs list, but wants to vote for someone from downstairs list, or maybe Gil or Glirdan

Wait, so all this time you've been saying "Yeah, Glirdan looks suspicious, but he always does, and he's always innocent. I don't want to vote for him." Now, he suddenly a possible lynch candidate? And you prefer to vote from someone in the "downstairs" section (carefully not labeled with strong wording such as "More suspicious") where TGWBS is, but you don't mention him. The only consistancy you've had so far is that he looks more suspicious than anyone else, and yet you don't even mention him as a possible vote.

11th post - wants to wait for xyzzy

I'm not even gonna bother.

12th post - urges village not to shy away from opinions

You're one to talk

13th post - "Seven votes to cast - probably six as Xyzzy is one of them - and the leaders in votes have two each... Everything is possible."

14th post - Disagrees the TGWBS might be gifted for being sensitive to gifted talk- thinks a gifted would merely shy away from discussion.

Why is it that the only conlusions so far have nothing to do with catching wolves?

15th post - Agrees with Mac's vote for TGWBS, thinks it's reasonable, but disagrees with how he voted, "no further points or taking part on the discussion," thinks it's detached and that a wolf would do the same, mentioning that he might be killed, suggests everyone look at Mac and Roa (because Roa "jumped" on Gil)

So, you agree that TGWBS is suspicious, but instead of actually voting for him, you find someone else who voted for TGWBS suspicious. And why? Because he voted and left. No one else who did that merited suspicion from you, why him? And, just because it's iritating me- I didn't jump on Gil, so much as I mentioned that it made me suspicious of him, which you did as well. I recall many wolves accusing innocents of behavior that they themselves were doing in the past. It's in that book that Lommy mentioned, "How to Spot a wolf."

16th post - Updated list, thinks he might vote Mac, but doesn't want to spread the vote

Voting TGWBS, your primary suspect from your second post on wouldn't spread the vote.

17th post - Might consider joining xyzzy vote, would more likely vote Mac than TGWBS, doesn't want to vote either, thinks Mac's way of playing is too clean

where did that come from? You went from slight suspicion to likely vote in three posts, all without Mac doing anything at all! And what's with this xyzzy nonsense? You look like a wolf trying to find a safe place to hide.

18th post - Asks if anyone wants to go with Mac or Xyzzy

I'm incredualous at this. Out right asking for people to jump on a bandwagon either for someone who hasn't even shown up yet, or for someone whom suspicion of just matierialized out of no where. Why did he suddenly drop TGWBS? Sure, he didn't want to vote for him because he might be useful, but the same certainly applies to Mac. Why is it better to vote Mac than TGWBS? I can only think of one reason- Lommy is tied for the lead (I'm counting the cross posting as Nogrod didn't know she was in the lead) with Glirdan and TGWBS. He's blatantly encouraging everyone to lynch someone else, a substitute who hasn't even gotten votes yet. He said himself- nything could happen.

19th post - Doesn't want Lommy to go on such futile reasoning, thinks we should watch Legate

but it's okay for Mac to go on the same?

20th post - Decides to kill Glirdan "a shot in the dark"

Lommy makes a convenient excuse to suddenly change your mind about killing Glirdan and gaining a very secure seat for the next few Days. Why did you drop your suspicion on TGWBS for Mac? A vote for TGWBS would have at least given a chance for your top suspect to go down. I might expect this from someone else, but not from you, Nogrod. You're usually more definitive.

21st post - "I guess we got lots to think from these last moments for toMorrow..."

Overall, this is not the Nogrod I'm used to. He talks alot with out saying anything definitive. In fact, he reminds me of a wolfish SPM. Not to mention he completely droped his suspicion of TGWBS when there was a real possibilty of getting him lynched. Not a true contradiction, prehaps, becuase he did say repeatedly that he didn't want to vote for TGWBS. Of course he also said the same about Mac, and then turned around and blatantly tried to start a bandwagon for him in the last minutes. All Day he said nothing certain, which looks to me like he was trying to keep his options open, waiting like a wise wolf, as he so elegantly put it, to see who the unknowing villagers would lynch. When it looked like Glirdan was going to be lynched, he dropped his "Glirdan is usually innocent" attitude, and went for a vote that would no doubt make him look innocent to everyone. (See, it worked.)

The question remains- is this enough to lynch him? In the end, it comes down to odd behavior, and "fluff" as it were. Alarm bells are ringing, and unless he can justify this satisfactorily, or something better comes along (I'd really like to see an analysis of the others, plus one of TGWBS and Legate), he'll definitely be at the top of my list.

I have a lot to do in the morning, so I need to sign off now. Becuase of my schedule I may not be able to vote. However, I would rather not vote at all than vote now. See the admin thread for my reasons.

[Brinniel]

Gil- Your suspicions on Lommy are rather confusing. At first you say:
Lommy, sixth, nogrod and rikae are the only ones to have voted for Glirdan, so by following the math, they obviously tend to be the more innocent ones then
And then you place on your suspicious list:
suspicious ~ Lommy, sixth
Now, perhaps you are going more on gut instinct rather than mathematical reason. Do you still suspect her for the same reasons as your comment yesterDay?
but i got a little itch from Lommy's post... she just came right out and tried to defend Roa... could be a virtuous villager, but everyone should know that if they are an ordinary, they are on their own
If you could please further explain your reason here, I'd appreciate it.

Roa- Like always, you are indeed persuasive. And perhaps I am more easily convinced now that I don't really suspect like I did yesterDay, in fact, I hardly suspect you at all anymore. Of course, I won't completely let you off the hook; I am still wary and would hate to be completely misguided...again. Now, I haven't really had a reason to suspect Nogrod thus far, but your argument does seem quite clear. Nogrod still isn't at the top of my suspicion list, but I have bumped him from "possibly innocent" to "unsure." And I will be sure to take a good look at his future posts.

I would still like to analyze some possible suspects, but it is getting late, so I might not get that far before retiring for the night. I think I will get up earlier than normal to look deeper into this thread, as I have class in the afternoon and won't be back until an hour before deadline, which won't give me enough time to do any good analysis.

[Thinlómien]

People seem rather edgy and snappy considering that we're doing really well, one wolf dead and no dead innocents this far... :p

Even though I'm happy that no one died last night, I would almost have preferred someone dead. Before you start shouting: "Eek! She wants the wolves to kill us! Lynch her!" please listen to my reasoning ;). We outnumber the wolves right now quite clearly at this phase so it would not have been that horrible to lose one of us to gain evidence. I don't doubt there's plenty of evidence in yesterDay's voting and discussion - especially as the lynched one was a nasty lycanthrope - but kill evidence always gives some further information about the wolves' way of thinking and who are they afraid of/want to see dead, and thus clues of who they might be. But maybe it's good this way after all, the more innocents alive, the better for us, even one villager can make the difference. (So what was the point? I was just thinking aloud I guess... :rolleyes: )

Roa, I find your analysis of Noggie extremely funny, but I've not yet decided whether I agree with it or not.

A longer post to come...

[Brinniel]

For a big chunk of the end of Day One, there was a discussion on whether to vote for xyzzy. As of right now, I feel pretty confident that at least one wolf was involved in this debate.

Here are some quotes that come from this discussion:
So if it looks like pure random or very improbable in the end we should perhaps consider Xyzzy?
It seems like Xyzzy hasn't realised that the game has started. Lynching newbies on Day One is not nice.
Well, I would say this is not nice if xyzzy plans to show yet - maybe he has some troubles we don't know about...
I know it is not "nice" and that it is cynical and if htey had logged on more recently I wouldn't have suggested it but I will seriously consider doing so if I don't become more certain of the guilt of the current votees ..
Anyways, I don't intend on voting for him. I do not like to vote for people who have not had the chance to speak. Let us wait and see if he shows up toMorrow, and then we can come up with a decision.
what do you think about xyzzy? Is there a possibility to vote for him, or are we leaving this out? I am for that if nothing, it would not harm the village - probably. But if someone else, then someone else... just to know who to vote for.
I know I will be thought a hard hearted witch for this but I think I am still seriouly considering going for Xzzy.....
I think it would be a waste of toDay to vote xyzzy, when we can vote for someone who is actually suspicious. I plan to give him at least another Day to show up and I ask that everyone else does the same.
it seems that it's up to us whether to lynch or not xyzzy. For this, I'd maybe reconsider and wait. Reversing Nogrod's theory, he's 10/13 an ordo, so even if he does not do anything, he is still an ordo to count against the wolf numbers
his is cruel but I would rather hang fire on TGWBS and take my chance - Brinniel we don't have later ...
++ Xyzzy
If there is to be a Xyzzy vote, I might consider joining it as the other possibilities look quite problematic.
Nothing else to do now. Better to shoot at darkness with Glirdy than Lommy.
++ Glirdan
Well, if you said earlier, I might have voted for xyzzy. I hope I'm not wrong.

Oh geez, that's a lot of quotes... But it basically summarizes the entire discussion.

Okay, we do not know for sure whether xyzzy is innocent, but for right now let's theorize in the instance that he is...

Mac and I were the only two who were directly against voting for him. Mac didn't want to kill off a newbie on Day One and I wanted to give him another chance to show up. I have no regrets about my stance to not lynch him yet, and I still think it was for a good reason.

Legate, however, seemed a bit confused on whether or not to vote for him. He thought about it, but ended up deciding to wait and voted instead for Lommy. After Mithalwen's vote, he again switched back to thinking he should've voted for xyzzy, but by then it was too late. I suppose we could keep an eye on Legate, but I don't think what happened here makes him seriously suspicious. He seems more like an innocent caught in the middle of confusion on who to vote for and feeling a rushed with the deadline only minutes away.

Nogrod was the one who originally came up with the idea to vote xyzzy, and Mithalwen followed in agreement, though she was the only one who ended up voting for him. Now if xyzzy is innocent, then a werewolf Nogrod or Mithalwen, or even both, would knowingly push for the lynching of an innocent, using his absence as an excuse.

If Mithalwen were a wolf, she could play her innocence saying she voted for xyzzy because she was rushed and unsure on who else to vote for, and she'd rather vote for an absent innocent than a present one. Seems like a good excuse...or a credible cover.

Now let's say if Nogrod is a wolf, whether he is one with Mithalwen or not, the most sensible thing for him to do is to separate himself from her and her single vote for xyzzy and vote someone else instead. Now it seems unlikely that a werewolf would send a fellow wolf to his grave, but if Roa is right in her theory, then it makes perfect sense. After all, what better way to lose suspicion than to vote for the werewolf?

If Mithalwen or Nogrod are wolves, then why would Mithalwen vote xyzzy over tgwbs and Nogrod vote Glirdan over Lommy? Of course, the most obvious answer could be that either Lommy or tgwbs are wolves. But then, we also must remember at this time Lommy and tgwbs were tied in votes with Glirdan. If either had voted for one of them, they could've easily helped to seal the fate of an innocent...which could end up directing suspicion towards them.

Alright, I know this is a major theory I have here, and while I may quite possibly be completely off, I still think we should keep it into consideration. It's probably very unlikely that both of them are wolves, though it could happen. If one of them is a wolf, then I think it is more likely to be Mithalwen based on her voting.

I'm still considering Gil and Rikae as slightly suspicious (perhaps this comes from more of a hunch than anything), but since I do not immediately see any major evidence going against them as of right now, and I would like to go to bed, I will not worry about them until later.

EDIT: X-ed with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

2. Sixth for Glirdan ~ No way would a wolf have voted like this.I'm not too sure. A cunning and bold wolf might. But I agree that a Sixthwolf wouldn't probably, since that sounds more like some experienced player's trick.
I don't like how Mac is trying to make everything too simple. This, and the things he said about me and Brinn. Kind of raises my eyebrows.

Just a little piece of advice for you, Sixth. If you think someone looks gifted, don't say it aloud, since the wolves might pick your gifted-suspect (that they'd not have noticed before) and if they too think s/he looks gifted, kill him/her. :)

As you can see I am a great Thinlomien supporter I'm afraid. Haha, thank you.

What has happened to Gil??? I quite like his new self, and would not like voting him right now without strong judgement.

Don't be so sure- it's happened before. Ask Lommy.Don't ask me. I have traumas. (Not really. :D) Even though that game might have something to do with the fact that I never want to be a wolf again... *shudders* ;)
Anyway, enough with old, funny memories. Roa's right here. A wolf could very well do a thing like that.

I'm suspicious of TGWBS. I know I always am, but his actions yesterday were quite weird and eyebrow-raising. I will take a closer look at him before leaving.

I'll unfortunately have to leave and vote within an hour, I hope I manage to make a few posts before it.

edit: xed with Brinn

[Thinlómien]

Brinniel - I think she's innocent. I think she seems genuine when speaking about her "faults" and she's reasonable and has good points, especially that last post of hers was very interesting. This far, I have no reason to particularly suspect her.

Gil-Galad - Like I said, I like his new self. :p I don't know whether he's innocent or not, but as it's still early game and he isn't particularly suspicious I suggest we keep him around and see what happens... It's be a pity to "reward" him for his increased participation by lynching him. So this early, I won't be voting him unless he is clearly suspicious. Later, I won't be giving him any benefits.

Legate of Amon Lanc - He prances around like a hog on laughing gas. I hardly believe anything else than an ordo would be doing this. This is in contradiction with his late yesterday actions, which I find somewhat suspicious. I think he was not taking any stance and jumping around from one suspicion to another like a mad frog. (Sorry, Legate. :D) Difficult to define...

Macalaure - He's far too hasty and edgy! Where has his normal, cozy self disappeared? Suspicious...

Mithalwen - I always have hard time suspecting her since her posting style - which is so sympathic and amusing - somehow always set my alarms off. She feels innocent, but Brinn has very good points about her possible guilt. So I think she's kind of "middle/gray zone" for me.

Nogrod - Unlike Roa, I think he seems mostly like his normal self. But that does ceratinly not mean he's innocent, he seems the same as a wolf too. Though I think he's maybe summarising more than he usually does this early in the game... hiding behind summaries? Anyway, it's such a minor thing I won't let it grab my attention. So all in all, Nogrod as well is in the "gray zone" for me.

Rikae - Could be any way. I honestly don't have any idea about her. Need s to be watched.

Roa_Aoife - Seems innocentish for her reasonableness and her day1 interactions with Glirdy. However, I think her cause against Noggie was a bit too fierce and slightly far-fetched. For example, she (IMO) totally unnecessarily attacks Nogrod's minor gut-suspections. Anyway, I think Roa seems more innocent than guilty.

the guy who be short - His case against me is quite stupid. I mean, he seems to try to make everything say suspicious in some way. He also seems to deliberatedly misunderstand Roa. Also Roa had good points against him.

The Sixth Wizard - Judging on his vote, Glirdy's vote for him and the general feel of him, he seems innocent-ish. I remain quite unsure about him, though, before I hear more of him and can make more solid conclusions.

xyzzy - Well not much to say but unless he starts posting more frequently, I wouldn't mind lynching him in such a easy situation for us as it's right now. (One wolf already dead, all innocents still alive.)

I'll probably be voting TGWBS or Mac, unless I get some last-minute-frenzy against Mith or Legate.

[Thinlómien]

++TGWBS

His case against me was ill-constructed.

I agree with them we shouldn't speculate them too much [about roles]
Isn't that what Roa, who she defends, was doing?I was not defending Roa in general, and that should be easy to see. I said I found nothing wrong with her points. I didn't say that role talk is suspicious. If I had said so, I'd definitely be flip-floppery. But I said we shouldn't specualte about them too much, meaning that it's a secondary thing and gets the attention away from the important. Also, he deliberatedly seems to misinterpret Roa by saying she says gifteds shouldn't reveal. Furthermore, like Roa pointed out, he says that gifted-talk is no way helpful, but continues it himself. He seems very edgy/jumpy too.

And the worst crime, he's a conservatist... ;)
I am suspicious of Thinlomien for a number of factors. Observe-ye:
. . .
4. Tradition!

[Macalaure]

tgwbs for Lommy ~ If he's evil, then this vote would have been good move to save Glirdan. His reasoning isn't the best.This is a point with which I don't disagree at all! :D I must say I will be looking tgwbs much more closely toDay. He raised my suspicions yesterDay and this kind of stuff brings me back to suspect him even more. Good point.Um, I only said it would've been a good move to save Glirdan, which is actually quite obvious, and not a very good point. And "His reasoning isn't the best" surely isn't.
It's weird you point this one out like that.


Concerning Brinniel, I think I'll buy her explanations for yesterday. I'll put her back to 'averagely suspicious'.


Roa's analysis, wow... truly excellent. *bows*
... and appetizing as well. Is anybody else fancying a waffle right now? ;)


Let's have a look at Nog's voting situation:

If Nogrod is evil, then in all probability either tgwbs or Lommy aren't (4 wolves in a village of 13? No way.)

Case 1: Lommy is evil.
Wouldn't he have secretly welcomed my vote for tgwbs then? Sure he wouldn't be open about it, but why'd he be so adverse to it? I think an evil Nogrod would've reacted along the lines of "tgwbs? Hmm, yeah, well, maybe, what do the others think?" Unless.. he was already sure he wanted to do some backstabbing at this point, and my vote gave an alternative he didn't, in fact, welcome anymore.

Case 2: tgwbs is evil.
Nogrod's "tgwbs is suspicious but I will rather shoot into the dark than vote for him" looks horrible in this light. Actually, it looks almost too horrible and obvious.

Case 3: they're both innocent.
In that case, Nogrod had all the options he wanted to save Glirdan without drawing attention to himself. If we were talking about anybody else but Nogrod, I would probably dismiss this possibility, but Glirdan's game, where Wolfgrod lynched more wolves than the innocents did, still gives me shudders.

I'm really puzzled about Nogrod and looking forward to his reaction to Roa.


People seem rather edgy and snappy considering that we're doing really well, one wolf dead and no dead innocents this far... :p You know, these are the tiny things that really make my alarms ring. Why, why, would an innocent say things along the lines of: "Oh, come on, we're doing well, let's just play it the easy way now"?


edit: crossed with Lommy's last two

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I only just read through the today's posts, so these are just immediate reactions to what I marked down while reading them through. (revising it, it is quite chaotic) Will follow after some time with forming my opinions on everyone.

8. Mith for Xyzzy ~ This looks like throwing away, but she was encouraging everybody to follow her vote. I think it looks quite innocentish.
I marked this one, since saying "it looks quite innocentish" is quite easy way to dispatch the case. Though I wasn't suspicious about Mith for that, I would look for any possible connection between Mith&Mac, just to be sure.

Mac's post reminded me yet of something Lommy said yesterday, I marked it, so I post it here:
He looks quite bad. (Though possibly he looks too bad to be a real baddie. )
This is why I suspected Lommy in the first place. I think generally, ambivalence is the typical sign of werewolfery. "Oh, I would vote this [fellow wolf], but perhaps I am just too suspicious." "I don't know about this [innocent villager], but I just am not sure."

The problem is: a) It might be quite stupid of Lommy being a wolf to say such things as above. b) Voted for her comrade? It's dangerous because someone might jump the bandwaggon and she couldn't know the vote on Glirdan would be safe, on the other hand, early votes go often out later in the day. How could she know if the vote will win? Be she a wolf or not, true is, what Mac says, that she probably had no better option to vote at that moment. (and I don't see anything suspicious on Mac saying that... who said that? Roa?)

I don't think Thinlomien was using some wolf kill wolf strategy. I think that might just be a bit too open on the first day.
But she didn't know at that time, so it actually wasn't open at all. It might have played to her favor that she didn't have enough time. Cf. above.

Sixth looks most innocent (especially given Glirdan's reaction)
I agree with this, though for me better argument than Glirdan's reaction is that he was one to join the Glirdan bandwaggon. If he didn't, the solitary vote of Lommy might have gone unnoticed or whatever... so I don't think Sixth guilty now. While I suspected him yesterday, I didn't want to vote for him for the "killing newbies is not nice" reason, and now, since Glirdan proved to be a wolf, I think him innocent. Though by this reason I would consider Lommy innocent as well, she was the first one to vote for Glirdan and could not be sure what it will produce, cf. above, so this suspicion lasts.

Oh, now I see why there wasn't a wolf kill. It still does give us an advantage, anyway!
You see why there wasn't a wolf kill? Tell us, why?

Oh, and one thing I just have to add:
Who's Lommy? Is that the Thin-something-or-another-with-non-English-characters-thrown-in guy?
Yes, she is that guy. :D

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy's last two and Mac's

[Nogrod]

I don't know what to say of Roa's little analysis... funny perhaps is the right word? But it also make me a bit more worried about Roa.

So why?

Firstly: The main argument seems to be that I waffle and am not decisve. I myself am more than suspicious of people who are very decisive on Day1's. Being decisive this early normally means that one has some knowledge we others don't have. Or that it's a wolf who tries to cover her/his tracks in a monomania.

Secondly: It looks like it is just a bit too fabricated. As I've said before, I know Roa to be an extremely good player and she really has an evil eye with her summarisings / analyses. But this is just not the quality I've used to. And even though I know she loves to show how good she is in making damning analyses, as a villager she would in the end wish to help us others and not try to artifically make points from where there are none.

Just a few corrections.

I'm a wolf because I didn't want to lynch tgwbs yesterDay? Now that would be quite stupid from a wolf-Noggie. Were he a wolf it would have been my best choice as it would look pretty good in my voting record and were he not I would have gotten rid of a formidable enemy quite easily leaving no suspicious tracks behind.

I brought Mac up because I thought he was acting suspiciously. That happened late in the game, not on the early stages. You can't suspect someone's actions before they act... Mac's early posting looked okay, his late posting didn't.

Why I was suddenly ready to go for Glirdy? Simply because it was a choice between him and Lommy. Both were shots in the dark for me, but I believe Lommy can make a difference if innocent - and she had acted reasonably, unlike Glirdy who had acted suspiciously.

Xyzzy then? Maybe all of you who make your points about that affair should read what was said about lynching him yesterDay once more before you continue? Mith suggested the "cynical idea" based on the possibility that he will not join the game in the first place (it would not have been the first time when a first-timer doesn't show up). I thought it worth considering as Mith said he had been online on Saturday the last time. I voiced my concern that there is a possibility he could show up on some phase of the game and then it would be cruel (although I don't know how long one could be allowed to not appear just because they are newbies). After Brinn told us about the birthday stuff, I decided not to pursue that track anymore.

[Nogrod]

I'm inclined to trust Brinn and The Sixth right now. And I have no major worries about Legate, Mith or Rikae. Xyzzy I can't say anything about.

Gil and Lommy are hard to judge. There are reasons to suspect them and there are reasons to judge them innocent. Need to look at them more closely toDay.

I have some slight concerns on Roa and Mac, but I don't believe (at least yet) that they could both be wolves so I must be wrong at least with the other one of them, possibly both.

tgwbs still tops my list of suspicions. Where is he now, anyway?

I'll be away for a few hours but will be back in good time to do some analysis - I hope to have time enough to look at Gil, Lommy, Roa and Mac - and of course tgwbs.

[the guy who be short]

Well, I'm here now.

I'll just say my general feelings, having read over the thread, before I go on to proper analysis of yesterday's going-ons and try to draw conclusions from them.

I am still suspicious of Lommy, and especially don't like the way she's voted for me again. More on that later. I'm also very wary of Roa, who has built a case against Nogrod out of air (or waffles). I think these two are likely to be a lupine pair.

Finally:
and honestly: do you think someone could "analyse" tgwbs in less than two minutes?). 17 years and they still don't know what's wrong with me!

[the guy who be short]

Edit: From above, I didn't mean "again." Lommy has only voted for me once so far, of course.

Lommy

She's just voted for me for voting for her with an "ill constructed" case. Retaliation is not in the village's interests, and I feel my case to be both justified and reinforced by her behaviour today.

Firstly, in her first post, she supports Roa's post about the gifteds. Rikae (sensibly, in my opinion) picks holes in Roa's argument, but Lommy thinks she's innocent too, merely misunderstanding. She attacks Glirdan for supporting Rikae's "feeblish accusations" - feeble-ish? It's a sound accusation. Roa advocates mistrust of any person revealing themselves as gifted; how is that possibly good? She then votes for Glirdan.

To me, with hindsight, this looks very much like a wolf-on-wolf vote. Lommy says her evidence is feeble, so she can distance herself from it in the future, but she still manages to vote for a fellow wolf. Saying her evidence is feeble also decreases the potential of the vote becoming a bandwagon.


In response to Lommy's post today:
I was not defending Roa in general, and that should be easy to see. I said I found nothing wrong with her points.Same difference. If you agree with someone's points, you agree with them.


I didn't say that role talk is suspicious. If I had said so, I'd definitely be flip-floppery. But I said we shouldn't specualte about them too much, meaning that it's a secondary thing and gets the attention away from the important.
Fair enough. This is a problem is misinterpretation on my part; I thought the comment about role talk meant that Lommy thought role-talk in general should be discouraged.


Also, he deliberatedly seems to misinterpret Roa by saying she says gifteds shouldn't reveal.
She says we shouldn't trust anyone who reveals. Nice andh andy thing for a wolf to get into people's minds early.


Furthermore, like Roa pointed out, he says that gifted-talk is no way helpful, but continues it himself.
In response to others.

He seems very edgy/jumpy too. That what Werewolf's about. :D

I'm also wary of the Lommy-fanclub that seems to be springing up, and think it's at least partly wolf-influenced.

[the guy who be short]

Lommy -> Glirdan
Sixth -> Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Sixth (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1)
Roa -> tgwbs (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1)
Gil -> Lommy (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1, Lommy 1)
tgwbs -> Lommy (Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1)
Mac -> tgwbs (Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2)
Mith -> xyzzy (Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2, xyzzy 1)
Legate -> Lommy (Glirdan 2, Lommy 3, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2, xyzzy 1)
Rikae -> Glirdan (Glirdan 3, Lommy 3, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2, xyzzy 1)
Brinn -> Roa (Glirdan 3, Lommy 3, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2, xyzzy 1, Roa 1)
Nogrod -> Glirdan (Glirdan 4, Lommy 3, Sixth 1, tgwbs 2, xyzzy 1, Roa 1)

From this, to me, Sixth looks innocent for a secondary Glirdan vote.
Mac's vote for me looks like an attempt to create an alternate bandwagon to Glirdan (and Lommy), especially since he says numerous times that he doesn't want to lynch Glirdan (while still keeping suspicion on him).
Mith's vote for xyzzy... I disagree with the idea, but it's the kind of idea she has when she's innocent, done in good faith.
Rikae must be innocent.
Brinn's vote is incredibly random and odd, but I don't see it as reason to suspect her. I don't think a wolf would do such a thing in her position.
I don't think Nogrod is a wolf. If he were, and presuming Lommy to be a wolf too, I think the sensible course of action would be to vote for me so that there would be a 1/3 chance of an innocent dying, rather than 0.

Interim Conclusion:
Suspect Lommy and Roa.
Mildly suspect Mac.
Quite sure Nogrod, Rikae and Mith and Sixth are innocent.

Of the rest, I haven't formed any conclusions yet.


Just found this:
He defends himself against Roa, who had voted for him. The line Nogrod quoted already indeed looks interesting. If he feels forced to be speculating about roles, then why does he? He didn't have to, at least not to that extent.I feel forced to, as I said. I can't let misinformation reign. Roa says not to trust outed gifted, of course I have to confront that. Mith reinforces Roa's view that it is suspicious for gifted declare, so I have to counter it again.

[The Sixth Wizard]

if you think someone looks gifted, don't say it aloud, since the wolves might pick your gifted-suspect

Yeah, I'm aware, but sometimes I just kinda blurt stuff ou- FREE DAVID HICKS! Er, hehehe... :rolleyes:

Seriously though, here comes my final opinion for the Day. I would have posted this before Lommy voted but had to go to swimming training for a couple of hours. A vote awaits!

Brinniel ~ May be a wolf, but not really suspicious at this point in time.

Gil-Galad ~ Accused me rather feebly with bad reasoning, then tried to back it up to Roa, calling her a suspect as well, and without any real evidence.

Legate of Amon Lanc ~ Originally suspects me openly, then retracts that when he sees no-one else agrees with him. Still suspicious, but I'll wait 'till later to vote 'im.

Macalaure ~ Complicated. Inclined to find out more.

Mithalwen ~ As mysterious as ever. ;)

Nogrod ~ Voted for Glirdan, late in the Day. If I was a wolf, I sure wouldn't press home Glirdan and not gain much in the way of trust, so probably innocent.

Rikae ~ Also voted Glirdan, after Nogrod. Same as above.

Roa_Aoife ~ Sheesh, and you say Nogrod waffles :D ... teeny weeny bit suspicious...

the guy who be short ~ His vote yesterday is still very suspicious. He also didn't post much since then. Very close to voting him, don't know whether to join the Thinlomien bandwagon. . .

Thinlómien ~ It might be my death, killed by wolves, lynched after she gets lynched herself, but I still hold trust in our good ol' goat farmer. I still don't reckon she would have tried to get rid of Glirdan so soon in the game if she knew he was a wolf. And if she did, it sure hasn't paid off anyways.



...10 mins later, after reading TGWBS's post...

Yep, that's done it.

++ the guy who be short

By the way, that's probably my last message for the day.

[Mithalwen]

Don't be so sure- it's happened before. Ask Lommy. She's in the Fenris Wolf club because of her fellow wolf Ang, who managed to survive till the very last day, mostly because everyone regarded him as innocent for voting her. If I'm not mistaken, he was the deciding fact, when a vote the other way would have lynched someone else entirely. I remember- it was my very first game, and I was one of those who believed Ang innocent. I've done the very same thing, and so have many others.

It was partly the Lommy sacrifice, and partly because I misinterpreted something the player later revealed to be the seer said as clearing him definitively - fortunately i realised they had been referring to the vote not a dream just in time to make the right decision...

Doing a lunchtime flit so unlikely to be much of substance til later.

Feel rather more positive today .... wolf gone... and it seems we have a good rangery type person ...

I would just say that my Xyzzy vote was intended as a damage limitation exercise not as a throwaway. Fortuanately you all ignored me :D I think I have been playing this game too long.. overcomplicating it... :rolleyes:

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I don't feel it right to just drop someone off of my list of suspects, but I guess it's the best I can do now if I am not to end in total confusion.

Six is not that case, however - I think him innocent based on his Glirdan voting.

Brinniel is what goes with the above. From many things she says, she could be a not-so-clever newbie wolf, since certain things she says wouldn't be much wise for a wolf to say. But I'd rather think her an innocent.

Tgwbs makes me slightly nervous. Though I thought him okay after his arguing with Roa at the end of page 1, some suspicions started to bubble inside me later then. On the other hand, last post (#143) of his has one significant thing about it: all the thoughts stated there correspond with my thoughts. :confused: Should I be worried, should you be worried (of my intelligence), or should I be happy?
Well, all thoughts, except for this:
Rikae must be innocent.
Only simply saying that? These out-of-nowhere conclusions seem strange.

The same goes for Roa. I think she's okay, though she can be as much a wolf as innocent, I don't know her that good to tell this. On these two (her and tgwbs), I don't have any clear opinions formed.

Rikae At first I thought she might have been suspicious, later dropped it. The point is also that she voted for Glirdan at the moment Lommy was one vote ahead, and she herself admits she didn't have time to go through the posts of Day 1 before. A wolf who wouldn't know if there didn't appear a better suspect than Glirdan during the day would probably still try to vote for someone else, like catching the Lommy bandwaggon or voting on xyzzy and using the fact that she wasn't around as an excuse if the lynched proved innocent.

Gil-Galad looks like "normal" Gil-Galad, apart from his sudden burst of activity. Which might be just a momentary anomaly, like a sudden burst of activity in sun spots. Whatever the case, I am not able to learn anything "for" or "against" from his posts, so I am leaving him out now.

Mith. Seems innocent = this is the best word to use. She seems innocent, though she may be a very, very, very cleverly playing wolf. I'm gonna keep an eye on her, but I cannot lynch her just because she looks innocent :p
Feel rather more positive today .... wolf gone... and it seems we have a good rangery type person ...
Excuse me, but I have the idea I'm missing something. I thought (judging from the admin thread) the wolves didn't agree on whom to vote, or didn't post it, or whatever, so from where the speaks of ranger? (Sorry if I am dumb.)

Of xyzzy I, obviously, cannot say anything.

This leaves my favourite suspects, Lommy, Nogrod, and newly emerged Mac. Unless something drastic happens, I'm going to focus on these three and pick one of them for my today vote.

Will be back and explain what and why.

[the guy who be short]

Post 3 - In role.

Post 8 - Accuses Roa on the back of Rikae's comments. Bear in mind that Day 1 is perfect for wolf-on-wolf suspicion.

Post 20 - Apologises to Roa. Now, this is interesting - he says he is suspicious of Lommy and Sixth for voting for him, but he says he is more worried about Sixth, and votes for him. If Lommy is a wolf, this could be Glirdan suspecting her for the future, but avoiding voting for a fellow wolf (Which at that point would mean 2 wolves on the voting list, 0 innocents).

And that's all he said.

[Roa_Aoife]

She says we shouldn't trust anyone who reveals. Nice andh andy thing for a wolf to get into people's minds early.

For the last time, that is not what I said. I said we should be wary of revealing gifteds because it's a lot easier for a wolf to do so in this game. I can almost garuntee a gifted who feels pressure won't wait till the last moment to reveal. It wouldn't do any good since we don't have retractables, and their chance of being saved would be almost nil. It's not like someone's going to come out in the last 10 minutes and say "No wait!" and we're all going to waste time trying to figure if they're lying. We'd have plenty of time. We don't even know if we have gifted, let alone if someone claiming to be gifted is lying. I know you seem confident that we have at least a ranger and seer, but I honestly don't know why. We could three shirrifs, or maybe all hunters, or maybe just a birthday dreamer. It looks more to me like you're setting up for a "reveal" and are upset that I'm ruining your plans.

Also, all this "Rikae must definately be innocent" worries me. Yes, she just happens to have the perfect vote placement, but she herself said that she hadn't read through the thread. Maybe she didn't know that a vote for Glirdan would tie him with Lommy. Or perhaps she made a mistake and miscounted the votes, like I did, and thought to do the safest thing (for herself) and vote to lynch Glirdan. (The point I used for Nogrod applies here as well.) I'm not saying she's definately guilty, but we really should know better than discount someone for a mere Day 1 vote. I've only seen her as a wolf once, but I know she's very good at avoiding suspcion.

Concerning my analysis of Nogrod- I love it when people discuss my analysis, even if they're against it. It forces people to say something concrete and form opinions. That said, Nogrod's reaction to my post gives me pause. He's calm, rational, even, and doesn't brush it off with a "Well, I guess we just misunderstand each other," or "We're both loud and that's probably why we suspect each other so often." ON the other hand, waffling, as Legate pointed out when discussing Lommy, is incredibly wolvish, especially to the extent Nogrod did it.

One more thing gives me pause though, and while Nogrod was right in suggesting we not use the information learned from last night's events, I can't help but think that a wolvish Nogrod would never let a kill get away.

[the guy who be short]

For the last time, that is not what I said.We must be extremely wary of people who come out as gifteds at any point in the game, because without knowing what we have, it would be easy for a wolf to use that as a cover. So, even if a gifted proclamation goes uncontested, it's posible that the role isn't even in the game. Gifteds, if there are any, will need proof greater than a lack of contest if they plan on revealing.How could you possibly interpret that as "we should be wary of revealing gifteds" rather than "we should not trust people who reveal themselves as gifted?" This is beyond me. You are contradicting yourself and digging your hole ever deeper...

[Gil-Galad]

I don't like this... Lommy defends Roa first day... now Roa defends Lommy second day... and Sixth is attacking me because i attacked him first... which is totally understandable...


hmmm... i'm not sure who my vote is going for today, TGWBS seems innocent to me, so i have no ill-feelings towards him.

bah... can't really decide... i haven't heard much from Mac and Mith lately, my two other slightly suspicous... but with Miths last post, i think i'm going to have give my vote to her, reason:






Feel rather more positive today .... wolf gone... and it seems we have a good rangery type person ...

Seems to me, your just stalling for your post and stating facts that can't really be brought into the spotlight

I would just say that my Xyzzy vote was intended as a damage limitation exercise not as a throwaway. Fortuanately you all ignored me I think I have been playing this game too long.. overcomplicating it...

Again, she said something that would bring very little suspicion onto her, and she tried to give a reason for her vote... but i still beleive that this might be a wolf trying to cover for Glirdan and now with Glirdan gone, she is trying to move on and hope that nobody remembered this, but i did...

I've always tried to catch the whole "sneaking-under-the-radar" move for Wolfs... so hopefully i caught me one Lupine...

++Mithalwen


Edit: X-'ed with Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

The main argument seems to be that I waffle and am not decisve. I myself am more than suspicious of people who are very decisive on Day1's. Being decisive this early normally means that one has some knowledge we others don't have.

Caution is understandable, but what you did was rediculus. In fact, what you did looked like a wolf/cobbler throwing suspicion in as many directions as possible, waiting for one to bite. And while you had a perfectly good suspect, with more than enough evidence, you dropped it. You, who says "Day 1's are useful- we can catch a wolf on Day 1," were terribly indecisive, and that just doesn't match.

It looks like it is just a bit too fabricated.

A convenient catch all statement. But I see you avoid saying how.

I'm a wolf because I didn't want to lynch tgwbs yesterDay? Now that would be quite stupid from a wolf-Noggie. Were he a wolf it would have been my best choice as it would look pretty good in my voting record and were he not I would have gotten rid of a formidable enemy quite easily leaving no suspicious tracks behind.

At the time, TGWBS would have been in a three way tie for the lead. He was a possibilty, no ta sure thing. Perhaps you didn't want to risk two fellows at once. And it's not like voting Glirdan didn't have the same effect, except that Glirdan was more finalized.

I brought Mac up because I thought he was acting suspiciously. That happened late in the game, not on the early stages. You can't suspect someone's actions before they act... Mac's early posting looked okay, his late posting didn't.

Your reasons for suspecting Mac are as bad as TGWBS's reasons for suspecting Lommy, if not worse. He's suspicious becuase he left after he voted? Since when is that a mark of a wolf? And you went from suspecting him to trying to start a bandwagon in three posts. You could have just as easily asked people to help you lynch TGWBS, but you didn't. Becuase you didn't want to get rid of someone who could be a good ally? You said the same about Mac.

While it may seem rude, Glirdan, who has difficulty with suspicion and being present, is a much better sacrifice than TGWBS.

Why I was suddenly ready to go for Glirdy? Simply because it was a choice between him and Lommy. Both were shots in the dark for me, but I believe Lommy can make a difference if innocent - and she had acted reasonably, unlike Glirdy who had acted suspiciously.

Saving an innocent and voting a wolf? How perfect for you. Of course you couldn't vote Lommy to save Glirdan- you had said that she looked innocent and that you wouldn't vote for her with out better evidence. It would be a huge contradiction. With Glirdan, on the other hand, you had at least opened the door a few posts back when it looked like no one else would go for your attempted bandwagons.

What I really don't understand is why you tried to bandwagon for two people who had almost no evidence against them, but not for the one person for whom you had expressed any real suspicion.

Edit: Crossed with Gil

[Roa_Aoife]

How could you possibly interpret that as "we should be wary of revealing gifteds" rather than "we should not trust people who reveal themselves as gifted?"

Because I said:

We must be extremely wary of people who come out as gifteds

Oh, you're right, the "extremely" there makes it into a statement of not trusting gifted at all. I can totally see where you're coming from, and it doesn't look like you're twisting my words at all.

You've been trying to get me lynched since Day 1, even going so far as to put comments against me in your analysis of other players. Why not just get it over with and analyze me? It's what you want to do.

[Roa_Aoife]

I really must vote now- I have to go to work. Right now, my top suspects are:

Nogrod- for the reasons I stated above
TGWBS- Everything else aside, he's being very backhanded in his attacks on me, sneaking them into analyses on other players, etc, and he keeps twisting my words to make them seem different
Gil - because while I appreciate his greater activity, the things he's saying are sending up all sorts of red flags- his deliberate pointing out potential gifted, his baseless case against Sixth, (it's not compassion Gil; it's common sense), and lastly, his dropping his suspicion against Lommy and Sixth and going for Mith. Mith is is suspicious, no doubt, but the reasons he uses are fabricated at best

And I'm going shamelessly metagame (use outside knowledge) and vote

++Gil

Because he's the most likely to let a kill slip away.

I know you didn't want us to use that, Nogrod, and that's honorable and admirable, but I can't help having that thought in my head. It seems silly to ignore the common sense of the matter.
Otherwise, it honestly would have been a coin toss between TGWBS and Nogrod.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, if someone with more time could analyze Rikae- people getting ignored for for a vote is just waaay to convenient.

[the guy who be short]

Do we have to go into semantics, Roa? Nowhere in that first post of yours does it even indicate that "we should be careful not to accidentally reveal our gifteds." It very clearly advocates mistrust of anybody who claims to be gifted. I do not need to analyse you, because your unreasonable obstinance on this matter is more than enough to make me confident of your wolvishness.

[Gil-Galad]

Gil - because while I appreciate his greater activity, the things he's saying are sending up all sorts of red flags- his deliberate pointing out potential gifted, his baseless case against Sixth, (it's not compassion Gil; it's common sense), and lastly, his dropping his suspicion against Lommy and Sixth and going for Mith. Mith is is suspicious, no doubt, but the reasons he uses are fabricated at best




wow... i didn't say i wasn't suspicous of lommy and sixth anymore, i just said that i was confused about the whole Lommy-Roa relationship that has made me thinking...

and now yo uare defending Sixth about being compassionate... sigh... now don't tell me that is not fabricated, i may drop my suspicions of Sixth if somebody shows me a complete post, but for now i'm still wary of Lommy and Roa, i don't like this tag-team againest me one bit...

i say to ye vilalgers, if you join this bandwagon, then i urge you to persecute Roa and Lommy because i don't like being cornered by everyone


in conclusion, i say that Roa's reasons are fruitless at best againest me...

[Macalaure]

I'll try a new approach, I'll list all the people who look innocent to me.. and then go for who is left.

Innocent:
Brinn. Appears very honest and helpful today. Ignoring her vote, I see no reason not to trust her right now.
Legate. Seems earnest. I don't agree with everything he says, but his points don't look made up, but honest. Curious to see why he suspects me, though. I hate being suspected by people who I trust in turn.
Mith. Did not say much today so far. I trusted her yesterday, and nothing has happened to change that.
Sixth. His vote yesterday looked innocent, and so does his general behaviour.

Very probably innocent:
Rikae. Another innocent-looking voter yesterday. I always find it difficult to read her, though.
Roa. I find nothing suspicious about her at the time. However, she's Roa, so she never looks entirely innocent.
tgwbs. He seems to attract quite some suspicion today. Interestingly, what he said today makes me feel a lot better about him. Like with Legate, I don't always agree with him, but what he says looks honest.

Unsure:
I still don't have a clear picture of Gil and Xyzzy.

Which leaves me only with: Nogrod and Lommy.

If you look at Nogrod from one angle, he looks very wolfish, from the other angle, he looks rather innocent. I simply don't know how to judge him.

Lommy is my (only :rolleyes: ) real suspect right now. I will have a close look at her later.


Apart from that:Your reasons for suspecting Mac are as bad as TGWBS's reasons for suspecting Lommy, if not worse. He's suspicious becuase he left after he voted?Well, I did not leave after I voted. I just don't like voting in the last minutes. I even have to admit that I did try to start a bandwaggon against tgwbs, which some suspected. It's because that's what I like to do with my votes: achieve to lynch somebody! I would've been more active on it if I had a better reasoning.

[the guy who be short]

I'm afraid I must leave now.

++Lommy for reasons already stated.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Whatever might have happened here today and yesterday at the end, I went through everything and I realized I have to stand behind my early option. Thinlómien. One other thing emerging here today about her would be the possibility of her and Six being connected. I know they are both early-voters, but we are not in Day 1 anymore. See: Day 1 - Lommy has to leave, votes Glirdan. Six has to leave, votes Glirdan. Day 2 - Lommy has to leave, votes tgwbs. Six shouts about Lommy fanclub, votes tgwbs. Eeek. Something smells here. Though I have said I'll leave thoughts on Six to later then, this is strange.

Mac I was getting a little bit suspicious of because there still seemed to be something slippery on him; particularly I was interested in his case against tgwbs, which I felt to be fabricated. I must say, the main point is because I felt tgwbs innocent and didn't feel it right to accuse him. It crushes with my logic, if they were both innocent, that this case appeared. However, after going through all Mac wrote, I now see him clearer than ever and am prepared to drop him from my suspect list. He seems innocent and logical.

Nogrod I have very strong opinion on: either he is a total wolf who should be lynched rightaway, or he is a very good and intelligent innocent and... yeah, lynching him would be the worst thing to do. I somehow can't put the evidence together this time, I am not as concentrated as I should, or something like that. I am not dropping him, but probably, unless something else happens, I am going to vote for Lommy today. I am saying this in forward, though I am not going to cast my vote now yet in case something happens (so far there was just a tgwbs and Mith bandwaggon forming, and who knows what might happen), but if anyone else thinks we should vote for Lommy, I say straightforward I am for it and I will cast that vote later. I just want to use the advantage of having time till later before the deadline, so I'll cast it later (if we had retractions, I'd have cast it at that point).

EDIT: X-ed with Gil and the last two.

Edit - Ad Mac:
Okay pal, in your last post, you swept off the last suspicions. I drop everything against you - if you are a wolf, then you must have miraculous abilities.

Edit - Ad tgwbs:
Seems the Lommy bandwaggon has started, so I am not alone (cf. above). Will still wait yet, though...

[Nogrod]

One more thing gives me pause though, and while Nogrod was right in suggesting we not use the information learned from last night's events, I can't help but think that a wolvish Nogrod would never let a kill get away.

And I'm going shamelessly metagame (use outside knowledge) and vote
++Gil
Because he's the most likely to let a kill slip away.
I know you didn't want us to use that, Nogrod, and that's honorable and admirable, but I can't help having that thought in my head. It seems silly to ignore the common sense of the matter.Okay. So be it. And now that you mentioned these again I guess the milk is spilled wide enough anyhow. And looking at the brighter side of this: if Menel has some nasty surprises for us in this game maybe it's just fair we can also use some unfair means of getting our wolves... (I remember Lommy once got my ancestor who was a wolf by mod-Glirdy slipping the sex of the wolf in the narration... so this would not be the first time)

So you're absolutely right with the first one. I was there before and after the deadline and would never let a kill slip. If I were a wolf and my mate wouldn't be around near the deadline I'd take action by myself, not bothering to wait for my lazy / unfortunate mate (I'd send a kill to the mod on my own and added that it's subject to change if my mate miraculously reappears from somewhere before the DL, or something like that).

And what you say about Gil is just what I have been thinking myself. That's why I picked him back to my "needs to analyse" list as I wished to be able to read him through and find something else to suspect him for than this "probably the one to be able to miss a kill" -argument...

In fact I'm going to try and do just that now. And take a look at few others as well as I think I need to do some rearranging in my mind about certain people - mainly dropping them from my suspicions if the rereading allows that.

[Mithalwen]

Blimey, clearly I should have read the admin thread at lunchtime!!!!

Rather annoying to be described as stalling when one has made a huge effort to participate even for 20 minutes 4-5 hours earlier than wouldhave been otherwise possible...... :rolleyes:


Idle wolves ..... does anyone really think for a second that I would have missed a kill? I was online yesterday til nearly the deadline thought I am not sure I posted enough to prove it.

[Brinniel]

Nogrod, you wrote earlier:
I have a suggestion. I hope you agree with it.

So how about we just make a deal that no one discusses the events of the last Night and uses none of the information s/he might have gained, direct or indirect, as evidence or reason to back up any of her/his views in-game?

The other possibility surely is that we exploit all there is, but I think that would not be wise if we wish to maintain something like a fair play here.

Surely everyone is allowed to make her/his deductions of things that have happened outside the game-thread - I have done a lot myself already. But let us try to not use them as arguments in-game and try to find other ways to make our points about suspicions and feeling easier about people?
Okay, Roa has decided to exploit this issue...her vote is not exactly something I agree with, but I'm not going worry about it for the moment.

The thing is, Nogrod seemed so against making arguments and decisions based on what happened last Night. Now that Roa has brought it up, he seems a little too eager to jump on Gil for the same reasons. This makes me a bit uneasy.

So, perhaps we could go on analyzing who the wolf may be based on last Night's events, but I don't think that'll get us anywhere. Alright, maybe some could be more likely to let a kill go than others, but honestly, would any wolf really want that to happen, especially after a Day One lynching of their mate? I think the most likely explanation for what happened is that something came up in RL for at least one of the wolves that was unavoidable and there was a misunderstanding between the two on who was submitting the kill. I'm not sure...but it's not something we will know until the game is over. But I think lynching someone only based on this is very weak.

I still don't understand this bandwagon against Lommy. Perhaps I am being blindly misled, but for now I have to agree with Sixth and say her posts seem fairly honest and trustful to me. I don't know...all this mistrust towards her is rather confusing to me. If she is still alive tomorrow, I suppose I'll start examining her more closely...maybe there is something I'm just not seeing.

On tgwbs, I really have no idea whether he is innocent or not...certainly there are plenty who seem to think the latter. While I don't agree with his suspicions on Lommy and Roa, he doesn't really give off a wolfish vibe for me. As of the moment, I feel rather hesitant to vote for tgwbs.

Okay, this is how I'm seeing things right now:

Most Likely Innocent:
Sixth Wizard

Possibly Innocent:
Lommy
Macalaure
Legate

Unsure:
Roa
tgwbs
xyzzy
Rikae

Slightly Suspicious:
Gil-Galad

Suspicious:
Mithalwen
Nogrod

[Macalaure]

Lommy's posts yesterDay have been talked of enough, so here's what she said today. She has very limited time, let's see how she spent it.


First (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=515993&postcount=132)

She comments about people being snappy and edgy, when at the same time we are doing fine. I already said how suspicious I find this.

Her comment about the non-kill is classically lommyish, but does not really further our cause.


Second (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=515996&postcount=134)

She says a cunning and bold wolf might have voted like Six did. Doesn't this imply that a cunning and bold wolf would have voted the way Lommy herself voted, too? Yet she said the things I said about her made her raise an eyebrow (without explanation why). If I'm oversimplifying things, then at least I'm not aware of this.

What has happened to Gil??? I quite like his new self, and would not like voting him right now without strong judgement.I don't know what this is supposed to mean. Did I miss something? Gil is more outspoken than he used to be (praise Eru!), why is she putting talk about voting him in there?

She's suspicious of tgwbs and will look at him closer.

There's also some good advice for Six and some joking. All nice, but isn't time pressing us?


Third (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=515997&postcount=135)

Brinniel - innocent: agreement here
Gil - again, says she likes his way, but immediately talks about lynching him again, even though she says she doesn't want to. I'm sorry, but this leaves a sneaky impression with me.
Legate - funny, yes, but I have no idea how she got there.
Me - hasty and edgy? I don't know about hasty, but I'm sure I've been more edgy in some past games.
Mith - puts her in the middle zone, but somehow this one feels really sneaky
Nogrod - she made up her mind about Roa's analysis and apparently decided to dismiss it.
Rikae - nothing
Roa - she decided not to like Roa's analysis, that's ok. She still believes Roa to be innocent, that's ok, too.
tgwbs - bad case against her, deliberately misunderstanding Roa, Roa makes good points against him: this is all not inherently suspicious, but, lacking a better word right now, hasty.
Six - innocentish, but unsure: this is interpretable in both ways
Xyzzy - nothing, of course

Her conclusion: tgwbs or me, maybe Mith or Legate


Fourth (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=515998&postcount=136)

She votes tgwbs for his bad case against her. Just because it's not unexpected now, it doesn't mean it's not retaliation.He seems very edgy/jumpy too.Yes, he does! But that does not necessarily point towards wolvishness. More often, in fact, it points towards the opposite.



Well, Lommy's posts today do not cry wolf, but also aren't model-innocentish by far. I did not encounter one thing that made me feel more easy about her than before. If she is evil, then her behaviour fits seamlessly. If I had a better suspect today, I would go with that one, but I don't. Unless something strange happens, I will vote Lommy today.

This makes three votes for Lommy now. I'm really interested in seeing what rivaling bandwaggon will appear against Lommy's.


PS: I suggest that those who spill the milk shall have to drink it. :( :rolleyes:

edit: crossed with Brinn

[Mithalwen]

We don't know if we have a ranger though, so if we go a night with out a kill, we cannot assume that a person was protected. Roa

So no kill means that the wolves just decided not to kill anybody? Why not come to the sensible conclusion that no kill = ranger? Why is she trying to make us doubt even this? TGWBS

Maybe we have very cunning wolves rather than idle ones... but Brinniel, that isn't a confession..... :rolleyes:

Is it coincidence, TGWBS trying to frame Roa, or Roa bluffing....? I need to go through everything... but if anyone else is inclined ot give their opinion I woul dbe interested.

[Brinniel]

As of now, the official voting count looks like this:

tgwbs: 2
Mithalwen: 1
Gil-Galad: 1
Lommy: 1

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong...

Five votes down, seven to go...

I have to run to class right now, but I will be back around an hour before deadline, which should give me enough time to vote.

[Macalaure]

We don't know if we have a ranger though, so if we go a night with out a kill, we cannot assume that a person was protected. Roa

So no kill means that the wolves just decided not to kill anybody? Why not come to the sensible conclusion that no kill = ranger? Why is she trying to make us doubt even this? TGWBS

It just occurred to me that we might have a Cursed Villager among us, a villager who, when attacked by the wolves, turns into one of them. This would result in a night without a kill, too.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

It just occurred to me that we might have a Cursed Villager among us, a villager who, when attacked by the wolves, turns into one of them. This would result in a night without a kill, too.
But why would then Menel speak about delaying the deadline because of the wolves not sending him the kill?

[Mithalwen]

I doubt he would have actually stated that he had decided not to kill anyone in those circumstances. But that doesn't mean that there isn't a cursed of course....

[Nogrod]

Okay. Here's what I have for Gil-Galad

D1
#5 Two line nonsense.

#31 Suspects Lommy for “defending” Roa. Speculates whether they could be our gifteds. Ends up suspecting them both. A weird post I must say.

#38 Votes for Lommy

#62 Comes back to state his point that if Lommy is a wolf then Roa and The Sixth might be as well and if she is innocent then the two would be innocent as well.

D2
#120 His longest post in ww-history as he said it. And it’s just so weird... First he lists the votes from D1 and says that those who voted for Glirdy tend to be innocent (which is not true or at least anything obvious). He notes that Brinn and Mith voted somewhat strangely.

Then comes this I don’t know what to say about:
another thing that bugs me today, is Macalaures post, is it a conicendence that your inncoent list contains Mith and Sixth, which if i do math again, included your self will equal the remaining wolves? (i'm uncertain right now of how many wolves we have in the vilalge, is it three or four?) if it is indeed only 3 wolves then i will proabaly let this accusation slide.It is followed by reasoning about Glirdy trying to cover for his mate The Sixth by voting him. But it was that early so would that have been necessary or wise? I don’t think so.

Then his list:
suspicious ~ Lommy, sixth
somewhat suspicious ~ Mithalwen, Macalaure
unsure ~ Tgwbs, Legate,
somewhat innocent ~ Roa, Rikae, Nogrod, XyzzyPost ends with a suggestion to vote for The Sixth...

#122 Answers Roa by a counter-attack. Doesn’t think people should be “compassionate” towards newbies. Suggests that if Roa defends The Sixth she might be a wolf defending her mate.

#150 Votes for Mith because Mith tried to cover for Glirdy with her vote on Day1. Which I find an interesting interpretation. Wonders about Lommy defending Roa and then Roa defending Lommy. Thinks tgwbs innocent.

#156 Defends himself against Roa again, quite concernedly. Thinks Lommy and Roa have a tag-team against him, feels cornered by everyone (accuses Roa and Lommy about it).


So what to say of this? I think most of his stated reasons to suspect this or that player are quite bad. But it's hard to read him in the first place. He really manages to puzzle me.

I had some preliminary ideas about him and Lommy being two wolves but I think I need to drop that idea. His insistence on suspecting (and voting) Lommy is not something I'd expect from a lupine Gil - from some others I might expect it though.

The only thing that raises my eyebrows with some real concern is his unexpected activity in this game. It's a good thing, no doubt about that. It just makes me wonder a bit.

I'm less convinced of his lupinity at the moment but would not free him from suspicion either.

Something on Lommy in a minute...

EDIT: X'd with many...

[Nogrod]

I happily noted that Mac had done Lommy for toDay so I can spare myself from writing everything down.

So here's what I have on Lommy D1.

#15 Cool post, defending Roa and Rikae slightly and suspecting Glirdy with reservations. Especially this caught my attention:
Glirdan then... he's the one to turn heads this morning... and for a reason. His jump to support Rikae's feeble-ish accusations so early is like an example from the classic Spot-a-Wolf -book. He seems suspicious to me, yet I wonder if a wolf'd be this... obvious.Could be read as a wolf-on-wolf suspicion but could be read off quite innocentishly as well.

#17 Makes the case against Glirdy more open:
Yes, Glirdan seems quite taking Rikae's point - which was not an accusation in my opinion - and turning it to an accusation while trying to make it seem that Rikae's with him there... Looks quite bad...

#18 Votes Glirdan with the following explanation:
He looks quite bad. (Though possibly he looks too bad to be a real baddie.)
I must say that the evidence against him is in a way quite feeble (at this phase of the day) - I would love to hear Glirdy explaining his actions or responding to the accusations against him in some way, for one, and it's never wise to judge on the basis of only a few posts - but I'm going to vote him because he simply seems clearly the most suspicious of those who have posted this far.Her reservations over her vote are perfectly reasonable as there was little to base one’s decision at that time and as an innocent one would be a bit worried about one’s vote. But then again it is easy to see that as a wolf she couldn’t switch from the road she had taken and vote for someone else anymore at that time – and she was in a hurry, innocent or not.


Summa summarum. It's pretty easy to construct two interpretations on Lommy here. In the one she's the reasonable and caring villager who tries to remember every time the best of the village, is careful (to the point of waffling? :D ) and calm. In the other she's the cunning wolf who exploits her RL-hindrances to the fullest and wears the mask of a reasonable person with little time on her hands. I wouldn't be surprised by either one. She could pull out the tricksery stuff but she could as well be innocent.

I need to find better candidates...

[Nogrod]

And just two small points before I take a short break (I'll be back soon).

Reading Glirdy on the way of looking Lommy and Gil brought these two things forwards...

Glirdy's way of raising suspicions on Roa in #8 speaks to the favour of Roa being innocent.

In #20 he first suspects Lommy and then eats that suspicion and goes for The Sixth. I don't know if this clears The Sixth but I think it's one more small thing that makes me think him innocent. What about Lommy then? If there were reasons to suspect her of wolvery this might add to them but if not... I'm not sure. Just thought it would be good to remind you of these two things.

[Mithalwen]

I am probably being dim but I can't quite see why Lommy is drawing so much suspicion.

I am slo still uneasy about Brinniel's saying she had promised not to vote for Glirdan yesterday then backtracking today to say he was second choice for a vote. Those statements don't square to me but I may be biased becasue she is trying to make a case against me :rolleyes: ..however the reasoning for my (allegedly) throwaway vote still stands.......


Legate makes me uneasy too... I think last's endgame is significant but need to take another look.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I will not repeat all the things said on / by tgwbs yesterDay. I just sum up some of the things that bothered me with him yesterDay.

His bogus case on Lommy and insistence to stick with it.

His stated view that we should not use our time discussing the gifteds and his actions of doing mainly that (and thence making it harder to have any other discussion).

All this “trying to look helpful without being helpful” –stuff. It’s all too easy way to throw accusations around when there is no substance. Admittedly he has made quite a row about the possible substance with Roa after these events...


As Rikae and Macalaure pointed out he also said this:
Roa and I are both known for loudmouths, and loudmouths have a thing for calling attention to themselves and getting lynched for no reason.
Pre-emptive lupine defence?

And most importantly his voting which nicely brought Lommy level with a known wolf. Also it felt like a detached vote: an innocent villager would not be ready to vote for a cabable player (and bring her level to share the lead) early in the game with that bad reasons tgwbs presented at the time. Also I got the same vibes from him the last time and he turned out a wolf then.

Then something from toDay.

#142 There is this “anti-waffling” of him... I mean his continued insistence on the interpretation on Lommy’s vote for Glirdy
To me, with hindsight, this looks very much like a wolf-on-wolf vote. Lommy says her evidence is feeble, so she can distance herself from it in the future, but she still manages to vote for a fellow wolf. Saying her evidence is feeble also decreases the potential of the vote becoming a bandwagon.
Lommy’s vote can be constructed both ways but tgwbs decides to be “sure” it is this way. That I find unnerving. Too decisive people are worrysome.

#143 This has all the good reasoning behind it:
I don't think Nogrod is a wolf. If he were, and presuming Lommy to be a wolf too, I think the sensible course of action would be to vote for me so that there would be a 1/3 chance of an innocent dying, rather than 0.
After Brinn had first appreciated Roa’s terribly bad analysis of me and then brought forwards her confusing theory about myself and Mith wishing to lynch Xyzzy because we were wolves (I don’t of course know about Mith but I doubt it) and Mac had also said Roa had good points and even speculated on it, it felt quite good to read these words of reason. But immediately I realised this psychological effect that it had and started to wonder whether that wouldn’t be just the thing a wolf-tgwbs would need to do? Appease some of those who openly suspected him the Day before. I was a good target as there had been some suspicions raised against me on weak grounds and I would then welcome his reasonableness and lower my suspicions... A bit complicated I agree and am not sure what to think of it.

#147 He still only includes interpretations that back his idea of Lommy and Roa being wolves. I don't deny the possibility, not at all, but a decent villager would note that there are other ways of interpreting things that are equally reasonable.

In general I’ll leave the row between tgwbs and Roa be. I see no reason to dwell in it now. But this argument against Roa in #155 needs to be restated just for fun:
I do not need to analyse you, because your unreasonable obstinance on this matter is more than enough to make me confident of your wolvishness.There is Finnish proverb that talks about a pot blaming a saucepan while they both are black on the sides...

So what to say about all this?

I have all the reasons to suspect tgwbs. More than others at this point I think. But I must admit that I waver again (even waffle? :p ). It may be just the differences in style or approach too... unlike tgwbs I can’t say I’m sure.

[Nogrod]

Btw. Brinniel, I saw this as I reread the posts.
Now if xyzzy is innocent, then a werewolf Nogrod or Mithalwen, or even both, would knowingly push for the lynching of an innocent, using his absence as an excuse.
Why should a wolf wish to drive openly a lynch of Xyzzy which draws attention? There were three candidates who could realistically be lynched by that time: Glirdy, Lommy and tgwbs. Assuming us the wolves we should have gone for Lommy or tgwbs and that would have been easy taking account of how many suspicions had been raised on them (I had suspected tgwbs already the whole Day). And you can’t say wolf-Nogrod and wolf-Mith didn’t wish to do that because also tgwbs and Lommy were wolves too... That’d make five wolves... :D


Where is everyone? An hour left!

[Mithalwen]

The only thing I would mention is the point I made about him saying that the wolves forgoing a kill was ridiculous.... if TGWBS is a wolf he has missed a kill.... would he do that to prove a point he had made himself....

But you are right about me not being a wolf Noggie...

[Nogrod]

if TGWBS is a wolf he has missed a kill.... That's true. And it is true of every other wolf-candidate too. But Brinniel is right. It maybe for whatever RL-reason.

[Macalaure]

But why would then Menel speak about delaying the deadline because of the wolves not sending him the kill?
Oh, no, no! You misunderstand me. Or I wasn't clear enough...

I was referring to Mith, who was referring to Roa's and tgwbs's general point about being able to count with a ranger if there's no kill in one night. If there is nothing special, as there was tonight, Roa is right here, because of the possible existance of a Cursed.

[Brinniel]

Why should a wolf wish to drive openly a lynch of Xyzzy which draws attention?
Because the reasoning behind lynching xyzzy, who is quite possibly innocent would make sense. As you and Mithalwen mentioned, you were not sure if he'd ever show up at all...a perfect excuse to lynch an innocent, while not making it look suspicious. Legate was partially going for this idea as well, and I know all three of you couldn't be wolves. If this was indeed a werewolf's plot, this using the "no-show-player" excuse did work in bringing at least one innocent onto the wolf's (or wolves') side. And such an excuse makes your actions towards the idea of a xyzzy lynch not suspicious at all.

Ugh...I feel like I'm rambling. I hope that made sense. :rolleyes:

[Mithalwen]

That's true. And it is true of every other wolf-candidate too. But Brinniel is right. It maybe for whatever RL-reason.


And he didn't post elsewhere on the downs yesterday... hmmm

[Macalaure]

Don't get me wrong, but I think all this speculation about who might have missed to send the kill to Menel and who might not is really low-level Werewolf...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh, no, no! You misunderstand me. Or I wasn't clear enough...

I was referring to Mith, who was referring to Roa's and tgwbs's general point about being able to count with a ranger if there's no kill in one night. If there is nothing special, as there was tonight, Roa is right here, because of the possible existance of a Cursed.
Oh. Of course, sorry. It seemed very strange to me you were discussing it.

And he didn't post elsewhere on the downs yesterday... hmmm
Oh, I don't think we should bring this into play... it's not fair play.

[Mithalwen]

Because the reasoning behind lynching xyzzy, who is quite possibly innocent would make sense. As you and Mithalwen mentioned, you were not sure if he'd ever show up at all...a perfect excuse to lynch an innocent, while not making it look suspicious. Legate was partially going for this idea as well, and I know all three of you couldn't be wolves. If this was indeed a werewolf's plot, this using the "no-show-player" excuse did work in bringing at least one innocent onto the wolf's (or wolves') side. And such an excuse makes your actions towards the idea of a xyzzy lynch not suspicious at all.

Ugh...I feel like I'm rambling. I hope that made sense. :rolleyes:


Not really.... since if I were a wolf I would not do something so conspicuous.... and I since you are suspicious it would not have been such a good plan to make myself look innocent would it? And Xyzzy has not been proved innocent.....

In fact on the surface, you would have to say if there were 2 wolves remaining and they failed (rather than designed) to demand a kill... then Xyzzy and Gil would probably be the 2 most likely too.. however there may be extreme RL circs that made a less likely player miss it.....

[Nogrod]

a perfect excuse to lynch an innocent, while not making it look suspicious.Possibly. But I still fail to see a reason for a wolf to act like that when there were much better candidates of whom someone had to be innocent if we don't have a pack of wolves around here... Anyhow, I think we have more important things to discuss now than this. There are still seven votes to give and all is open.

[Brinniel]

Don't get me wrong, but I think all this speculation about who might have missed to send the kill to Menel and who might not is really low-level Werewolf...
It's a waste of time. Really...you're not going to find out who the werewolf is through this. Let's be logical and base our votes on what's in this thread, not elsewhere.

Half an hour left... Where are Legate, Gil, and Rikae?

I'm assuming xyzzy won't be voting again...

Well, whether the posting speeds up or not, I think I'll vote very soon. I feel pretty confident in who I want to vote for, unless something dramatically changes...

EDIT: X-ed with a lot of people. There you are Legate...

[Nogrod]

Oh, I don't think we should bring this into play... it's not fair play.I agree. It might have been whatever reason between the earth and heaven so let's leave this. I myself feel much better this way too...

But any ideas you people? Everyone is just waiting, but waiting for what?

[Mithalwen]

Oh, I don't think we should bring this into play... it's not fair play.

This isn't cricket you know ..or these days maybe it is..... and I think the genie is out of the bottle on that one this game :rolleyes:


And I personally I always have a quick check at recent posting if someone claims RL has prevented them posting much. It is not fool proof but gives a hint as to the degree of economy with the actualite....

[Macalaure]

Let's fix it:

++Thinlómien

[Mithalwen]

Who blinks first of course ... :p

[Nogrod]

Who blinks first of course ... :pC'mon. That's foolishness! Why don't you people say what you mean (or why you vote like you do)? Why this secrecy? Wolves around perhaps?

I'm inclined to vote for tgwbs as I can't see better candidates.

What say you?

[Rikae]

I'm inclined to vote for TGWBS or Brinniel.

[Macalaure]

Can I persuade anybody to vote Lommy?

[Mithalwen]

Joke..Nogrod....?

OK I knowI am innocent and don't want to get lynched.

I have a suspicion that TGWBS may be gifted not a wolf but could be sooooooooo wrong.....

I still don't understand why Lommy is so suspected ....

Brinniel and Gil are definitely misguided and one of them may well be a wolf.

Both would be unlikely.

Legate makes me very uneasy but not exactly sure why..may be a memory of gettin git so wrong last game...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

But any ideas you people? Everyone is just waiting, but waiting for what?
Waiting for someone to slip, of course. After reading it I think I don't have anything to add to your little debate up here. I just hope you&Mith are not wolves.

And I personally I always have a quick check at recent posting if someone claims RL has prevented them posting much. It is not fool proof but gives a hint as to the degree of economy with the actualite....
I know what you mean and I agree with it, but then we can rightaway all play in Visible mode. Anyway, this is about nothing, let's leave that matter once and for all.

On a more gaming note - so far I have seen nothing here to change my opinion on my vote. I hope we won't see some wolfstream in the last moment. I am going to wait yet, so the last minute rumble makes sense, but Lommy it is for me.

[Nogrod]

Can I persuade anybody to vote Lommy?I do have some suspicions on Lommy too but at the same time there is as good case to be made that she is innocent. If she actually is able to participate more on Day3 I would like to hear more from her then...

[Brinniel]

Looking at the voting tallies, I'm not going to spread it out and make the mistake of another throwaway vote...

Nogrod still remains suspicious to me, though I'm also thinking that if we have a cobbler on our hands, he could quite possibly be it. I'll leave him alone for toDay.

I'm still not convinced Lommy is a wolf...I think she's more innocent than anything.

I'm also not convinced about tgwbs either. I think he's more suspicious than Lommy, but I don't want to vote for him.

I still find Gil a little suspicious, but I don't yet have enough evidence to make a strong case against him. So, I will let him off the hook...for toDay at least.

For reasons and theories I've already stated, Mithalwen has remained at the top of my suspicion list for sometime. With that said...

++Mithalwen

Hopefully, I won't be so far off as I was yesterDay...

EDIT: X-ed with last six posts

[Macalaure]

I still don't understand why Lommy is so suspected ....

Put very short, yesterday she voted Glirdan while strongly disencouraging anybody to follow her. She wasn't just saying she was not sure about him, but more.

Today, it's more a general 'aura' of... dishonesty. Many things she said just feel wrong (check my analysis)

[Nogrod]

I have a suspicion that TGWBS may be gifted not a wolf but could be sooooooooo wrong.....That thought has passed my mind too, but looking how decidedly he went for both Lommy and Roa already on Day1 and the way he plays overall quite eases that fear. No sensible gifted would play that way... too risky for the village. And tgwbs is a sensible guy.

[Mithalwen]

Oh why not vote me since I am clearly so unsporting? :rolleyes: But I think you are being hopelessly naive and unrealistic.... everyone refers to other games .... what is so wrong to check up as far as one can if people are being honest about their time for participation .... I mean I understand RL..I just take it with a pinch of salt if I see someone has posted a ton elsewhere the downs....

[Mithalwen]

++Mithalwen

Hopefully, I won't be so far off as I was yesterDay...




You are .... you are.....

[Nogrod]

Lommy > tgwbs
The Sixth > tgwbs
Gil > Mith
Roa > Gil
Tgwbs > Lommy (tgwbs2, Mith1, Gil1, Lommy1)
Mac > Lommy (tgwbs2, Mith1, Gil1, Lommy2)
Brinn > Mith (tgwbs2, Mith2, Gil1, Lommy2)

Not voted: Mith, Legate, Rikae, Xyzzy, Nogrod

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

That thought has passed my mind too, but looking how decidedly he went for both Lommy and Roa already on Day1 and the way he plays overall quite eases that fear. No sensible gifted would play that way... too risky for the village. And tgwbs is a sensible guy.
Well I don't know him but if anything, I would not vote for tgwbs today. I think there are far better candidates, and tgwbs really doesn't seem that much of a wolf now.

[Macalaure]

tgwbs 2
Mith 2
Lommy 2
Gil 1

This looks strangely familiar. :D

[Nogrod]

Okay. This waiting is ridiculous if everyone just waits for others to act.

++ tgwbs

EDIT: X'd with Legate and Mac

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh why not vote me since I am clearly so unsporting? :rolleyes: But I think you are being hopelessly naive and unrealistic.... everyone refers to other games .... what is so wrong to check up as far as one can if people are being honest about their time for participation .... I mean I understand RL..I just take it with a pinch of salt if I see someone has posted a ton elsewhere the downs....
Well of course, of course, then I wouldn't believe that person a green hat on St.Patrick's day. But stop it, or I'll start thinking you are a Cobbler.

[Mithalwen]

OK.....

He may be being random and untypical ..but he is wrong about me... and I really don't know about the others

++Gil Galad

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

EDIT: X'd with Legate and Mac

And would that have changed anything, Noggie? Or do you pity that we don't have retractions now?

[Rikae]

See: Day 1 - Lommy has to leave, votes Glirdan. Six has to leave, votes Glirdan. Day 2 - Lommy has to leave, votes tgwbs. Six shouts about Lommy fanclub, votes tgwbs. Eeek. Something smells here. Though I have said I'll leave thoughts on Six to later then, this is strange.
Legate, you know Sixth is a newbie. Quite natural for a newbie to follow the footsteps of a more experienced player, I'd say.
Legate needs to be looked at more closely. I may be dead tomorrow, so I thought I'd point that out.

As for today, I'll go with:

++The Guy Who Be Short

who I've suspected from the beginning, as I've said; there seems to be no better lead (though Roa makes a good point about Gil).

[Macalaure]

If Legate votes Lommy, it will come down to Rikae to decide, now.

(unless Xyzzy appears out of nowhere)


edit: *shakes head*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay... it's clear now.

++Thinlómien

EDIT: x-ed with Rikae and... who was it?

[Gil-Galad]

i don't like this... we are too spread out in our suspicions... but if IGWBS indeed proves to be a wolf, then we will have to analyze using WW-Math

[Mithalwen]

And just in case I'm dead ... remember if Xyzzy doesn't step up... you can't evade the issue indefinitely...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well this voting was maybe even more ridiculous than the ordinary are... but I think still if I voted earlier it wouldn't make any difference, I guess you wouldn't pick Lommy even if I posted that before, would you, Rikae?

[Brinniel]

Well, only a few minutes until we find out whether he is or not...

EDIT: X-ed with Mithalwen and Legate

[Nogrod]

Okay... it's clear now.So waiting for the undecisive voting place now were we? :D

[Meneltarmacil]

The guy who be short sat alone in his bakery, humming to himself as he baked some bread.

Just then, the other villagers barged in angrily.

"What is the meaning of this?" the baker demanded.

"You're going to the gallows for what you've done!" the miller shouted. "Don't bother denying it!"

"Was last night's pie really that bad?" TGWBS asked innocently.

The villagers carried him up to the gallows and put the noose around his neck. The baker's last words were:

"Gasp... I... hate... you... villagers... wish... the wolves... killed you...gaaaaack." No transformation occurred.

"Oops. Guess we were wrong," Mithalwen stammered. "But why were his last words so hostile?"

After searching the bakery, the villagers found the answer. Several nasty letters about the villagers had been hidden away, and moreover, there was a fresh peach cobbler sitting out on the counter.

Alive:
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Roa_Aoife
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien
xyzzy

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Devoured by Wolves on Night 1
Glirdan (Werewolf): Stoned to death by Villagers on Day 1
the guy who be short (Cobbler): Became the guy who be hung by Villagers on Day 2

Day 2 is over. Night 3 will not start until the usual time on Monday due to Easter. You can, however PM me names of targets and such over the weekend in between.

[Rikae]

Well this voting was maybe even more ridiculous than the ordinary are... but I think still if I voted earlier it wouldn't make any difference, I guess you wouldn't pick Lommy even if I posted that before, would you, Rikae?
Lommy? I haven't seen a plausible case for Lommy being a wolf yet, to put it simply.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So waiting for the undecisive voting place now were we? :D
No, waiting for Mith to vote... to be sure

EDIT: oh, sorry! Crossed the line.

[Meneltarmacil]

The sun rose beyond the mountain range, spilling its light over the peaks. Another day had dawned.

The villagers gathered in the center of town. It was a warm, beautiful day without a cloud in the sky, and they were intent on enjoying themselves. Something was missing, however.

"Where's Brinniel?" asked Nogrod the Miller. "I've got parts for my mill that should have been fixed overnight!"

Indeed, the blacksmith had not arrived with the others.

"She must still be working," said Rikae. "Poor girl has always been diligent, even if she's not very graceful. Come on; let's see what she's up to."

Inside the blacksmith's shop, however, a grim sight met their eyes. The body of Brinniel lay on the ground, crushed under her anvil. Paw prints were everywhere, and the shop looked like a hurricane had gone through it.

"Oh my..." Mithalwen stammered.

"It appears the wolves have claimed another victim," Macalaure commented dourly.

Alive:
Gil-Galad
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Roa_Aoife
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien
xyzzy

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Devoured by Wolves on Night 1
Glirdan (Werewolf): Stoned to death by Villagers on Day 1
the guy who be short (Cobbler): Became the guy who be hung by Villagers on Day 2
Brinniel (Ordinary Villager): Crushed under anvil by Wolves on Night 3.

Day 3 beginneth.

[Roa_Aoife]

Brinniel, eh? That's surprising. I was expecting Sixth.....

I'm going to go back through Brinniel's posts to see if I can pinpoint why she was killed. I'm also going to look through TGWBS's posts. I don't expect much- he's as tricksy as I am. More importantly, I'm going to look at people's reactions to him. I expect to find more there.

[Nogrod]

Brinniel, eh? That's surprising. I was expecting Sixth.....Either one of them... both being the most reasonable candidates. I can't see a surprise here.
I'm going to go back through Brinniel's posts to see if I can pinpoint why she was killed.Brinniel might have had points and any help we can get is good for us, but you won't get any traditional ww-evidence out of her (she being killed because of something she said).The reason why she was killed was most probably based on the "meta-reasons" - as you called them.

And with that I'll shut my mouth with that discussion.

I'll try to have a look around too before I need to go to sleep...

[Gil-Galad]

wow... i almost forgot about what happened last day so i have nothing to add right now... hopefully in a bit

[Roa_Aoife]

Brinniel might have had points and any help we can get is good for us, but you won't get any traditional ww-evidence out of her (she being killed because of something she said).The reason why she was killed was most probably based on the "meta-reasons" - as you called them.


You're probably right, but I want to take a look anyways. I'm more interested in how other people were reacting to her than her to them, if that makes any sense. Same with TGWBS.

[Nogrod]

I'm also going to look through TGWBS's posts. I don't expect much- he's as tricksy as I am.A good piece of advice. We should take everythnig tgwbs said with the famous pinch of salt...

I have experience of being a cobbler myself from earlier games. It's one of the most enjoyable roles there is - and also one of the most nerve-wrecking.

But some basics to interpret a cobblers posting should be shared...

He does not know the wolves identities (at least normally he doesn't - we don't know about it with this game to be sure). That makes the cobbler to adapt to one of the different strategies - others sure are possible.
a. Hunker down (play most normally) and try to stay alive (not charging anyone too openly) until you have better ideas of who is who and start to meddle only after that.
b. Go on openly chasing some random people and relieve others in a way that you can secretly try to inform the wolves about your identity. Then just hope the wolves will not get you during the Night.
c. If you have a hunch of the wolves identities, attack one of them with some hidden notes to them / relieve players you think bad for the wolves with the same fashion. Again: just hope the wolves will not get you during the Night.

But that's the starting position only.

A cobbler will adapt his game to the situation. In the case of tgwbs I strongly believe that at least after Day1 he knew he was close to the gallows (not the least because he had no chances to talk to himself at the deadline). So he would then adjust his posting accordingly. The only problem is, whether he was just double-bluffing us or whether he went further...

I'm more interested in how other people were reacting to her than her to them, if that makes any sense. Same with TGWBS.That sounds like a lot of sense to me.

[The Sixth Wizard]

G'day other Were-wolverinos! It has been a while since we were last on...

Brinniel, eh? That's surprising. I was expecting Sixth.....

It appears through my lack of experience I am being too open and getting myself killed. No matter! :)

So... TGWBS was a cobbler, Brinniel was just a normal villager (a win for us, as she wasn't gifted?) and Glirdan was a wolf. Seems so far my suspicions may be correct.

[Nogrod]

In general I’ll leave the row between tgwbs and Roa be. I see no reason to dwell in it now. But this argument against Roa in #155 needs to be restated just for fun:
I do not need to analyse you, because your unreasonable obstinance on this matter is more than enough to make me confident of your wolvishness.This remark I can see in a new light right now. Now why on earth did a cobbler say that? Trying to contact a wolf?

It indeed mirrors Roa's strategy in her last game as a cobbler and the rant she had with spm - and she also cleared me of all suspicion then as tgwbs did from Day2 onwards. Or was he trying to pose as a seer to my viewpoint at least? I remember Mith's concern about him being a gifted. I shared the same concern for a while after I read tgwbs's defence of myself and the way he set his suspicions / innocents lists on Day2. In the end I managed to get get myself over it and thought that were he a Seer he would not have acted that bluntly... happily so.

But I'm also a bit surprised of the way Roa decided to act as surprised with the death of Brinniel. That felt just like an undetached quasi-wonder to be made for the sake of saying something. But it's Roa and she rarely just fills in nonsense lines - and she was the one to first draw attention to these meta-reasons anyway... so she would have known?

I would also like to bring forwards the way Glirdy (known wolf) acted towards Roa on Day1. YesterDay I thought it talked in favour of her but now I'm not so sure anymore.

After Roa's initial discussion of the care we should take on any revealments Glirdy answered:We must be extremely wary of people who come out as gifteds at any point in the game, because without knowing what we have, it would be easy for a wolf to use that as a cover. So, even if a gifted proclamation goes uncontested, it's posible that the role isn't even in the game. Gifteds, if there are any, will need proof greater than a lack of contest if they plan on revealing. Fortunately, this could be an even greater risk for the wolves, seeing as they don't know if they will be contested or not.
This doesn't sit right with me. The fact is, a hunter, a ranger or a seer who's only dreamed of innocents won't have any such proof to offer, as I'm sure you know: I'd still prefer they come forward rather than be lynched! I'm not sure I like the way Roa advocates mistrust toward revealed gifteds with one breath, and points out that claiming giftedness would be a risky strategy for wolves with the next.
I'd have to agree with the actor person there, Rikae. There's something about that there....uhhh....let me check my hand for her name....uh....Brinnel..no....Mith...noooooo.....Gi l...nuhuh.....Glirdan....THAT'S ME! What am I going to have for breakfast??? OOO!! Butterfly....pretty.....

What?? OH!! Right....about Roa!! Ya, that's the one. There's something bout that one there that doesn't sit right at all. No it doesn't. Too inconsistent with her....her idea's? No...her thoughts!! Ya....I want sleep.....

I agree that at this point it would be risky for them there Gifteds to proclaim themsleves. But who in their right mind would do that at this point unless they were on the verge of being lynched? So why even bring up the idea that the Gifteds should remain hidden when we all know that they will and they already have that set in their minds? It's....ummm....confusing....and....umm....unnervi ng what she said. Ya, that's what it is....And after Roa answered him he said: Okay, roleplaying over for me for now. I think you've misunderstood me entirely, or else you are intentionally misrepresenting my post. I said we shouldn't immediately believe someone who claims to be a hunter, for example, especially when we don't even know if there is a hunter. And as I pointed out to Rikae, there are no retractable votes this game. A gifted could not afford to wait until the last minute, and niether could a wolf if they wanted to use that strategy. I did not say "Gifteds should definitely not reveal," I said "Villagers should be aware that the wolves will find it a great deal easier to pose as gifteds in this village." (Paraphrased.)And now I am clear. I was actually a litte befuddled by what you had posted which made me leery(sp?) of you. Sorry for jumping down your throat.

Now I am quite disturbed by Sixth's and Lommy's votes for me.Funny that Roa was this lenient to answer Glirdy just by way of saying that "I think you've misunderstood me entirely, or else you are intentionally misrepresenting my post". It's the nicest way I have ever seen Roa talk of any other person in this game who doubted her - unless she has had something to hide... :rolleyes: But see also the way Glirdy gets back into line after Roa's point...

Okay. I don't know. It's too late for me to continue to see if this case has anything of merit in it. I do normally suspect Roa (and she does suspect me). In that way we're even. I know I have now laid some points for suspecting her as I'm going to retire for the night (rl) and I can only guess what kind of full-scaled attacks she could launch at me while I'm away...

I'm not sure about this, not even convinced. And all the evidence we draw from tgwbs (with which my curiosity to look at Roa was raised) must be taken basically in line with the probabilty that he didn't know the wolves identities any more than we do... and that he wanted to lead us astray - but also to contact the wolves. That is one of the most pressing things for cobblers, to be recognised by the right persons... according to whom they believe are the ones... So all this is just what little raised my eyebrows before going to sleep. I hope I can be more elaborate with this and more importantly, with other possibilities as I awake and have some time to look at this more thoroughly.

[Roa_Aoife]

a. Hunker down (play most normally) and try to stay alive (not charging anyone too openly) until you have better ideas of who is who and start to meddle only after that.
b. Go on openly chasing some random people and relieve others in a way that you can secretly try to inform the wolves about your identity. Then just hope the wolves will not get you during the Night.
c. If you have a hunch of the wolves identities, attack one of them with some hidden notes to them / relieve players you think bad for the wolves with the same fashion. Again: just hope the wolves will not get you during the Night.

You forgot D. Confuse/ mis-direct discussion, and throw suspicion in as many directions as possible so as to create havoc in the village

Also, E. Play suspiciously so as to get yourself lynched in place of a wolf

And finally, F. Try to draw suspicion away from someone you believe is a wolf by creating suspicion against someone else, potentially someone bad for the wolves.

With that, option A was clearly not what TGWBS was doing, given his agressive suspicion of Lommy and myself. B is more of a possibility (one reason I'm looking into people's reactions to him). C would be far too straightforward for TGWBS. (He's more the type to double bluff us with that.) D, he clearly did with his continued discussion of potential gifted rooles and what we should do if someone claims to be a gifted. E is something I would suspect of a less experienced player, not TGWBS. F is as possible as B, especially since he tried to keep discussion away from Glirdan, whom we now know is a wolf. Of course, he didn't know that, but he could have suspected it, as others did.

In summary, A= no; B= maybe; C=probably not; D= yes; E= no; and F= maybe.

EDIT: Crossed with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

After I reread my last post, let me be clear.

It's pretty sure that tgwbs thought Roa a wolf. There's no other way of interpreting some of the points he made - the one I quoted in my last post is a good example.

But if he didn't knew who the wolves are (which normally is the case) that's not much of a proof to anything.

Waffling again now... but with a reason, I think.

Well. You all look at the things yourselves. To me it's now Good Night.

EDIT: X'd with Roa

[Nogrod]

You forgot D. Confuse/ mis-direct discussion, and throw suspicion in as many directions as possible so as to create havoc in the village

Also, E. Play suspiciously so as to get yourself lynched in place of a wolf

And finally, F. Try to draw suspicion away from someone you believe is a wolf by creating suspicion against someone else, potentially someone bad for the wolves. You sure are right with these... although I did leave your cases E and F out as they only go for certain particular situations. But case D I totally forgot. My bad... as I myself did just that for the first couple of Days as I was a cobbler a long time ago. That surely is one of the most important ways a cobbler could work...

Good night again... :)

[Roa_Aoife]

This remark I can see in a new light right now. Now why on earth did a cobbler say that? Trying to contact a wolf?

Or trying to get everyone else's suspicions riled up against a dangerous player. That's why the wolves leave me alive after all.

It indeed mirrors Roa's strategy in her last game as a cobbler and the rant she had with spm - and she also cleared me of all suspicion then as tgwbs did from Day2 onwards.

As I said at the end of my last game, my only strategy in defending you and attacking SPM was to get my identity to the wolves. I made no decisions about either of you in terms of wolvishness. But that game I had a list that I could send to the wolves every night, and through that I revealed myself. This was a special rule, specifically for that game. It is unlikely that TGWBS had the same tool.

But I'm also a bit surprised of the way Roa decided to act as surprised with the death of Brinniel. That felt just like an undetached quasi-wonder to be made for the sake of saying something. But it's Roa and she rarely just fills in nonsense lines - and she was the one to first draw attention to these meta-reasons anyway... so she would have known?

I wasn't acting surprised; I was surprised. To be perfectly honest, I had given virtually no thought to Brin whatsoever. Seeing as Sixth's voting record had/ has almost the entire village convinced he's innocent, I was fully expecting the wolves to take him out. Another target hadn't really entered my mind. In hind sight, (especially looking through the thread now), I'm beginning to understand. (Wish I'd payed a bit more attention to that.)

I would also like to bring forwards the way Glirdy (known wolf) acted towards Roa on Day1. YesterDay I thought it talked in favour of her but now I'm not so sure anymore.

Funny that Roa was this lenient to answer Glirdy just by way of saying that "I think you've misunderstood me entirely, or else you are intentionally misrepresenting my post". It's the nicest way I have ever seen Roa talk of any other person in this game who doubted her - unless she has had something to hide... :rolleyes: But see also the way Glirdy gets back into line after Roa's point...

Hey, I'm nice more often than you seem to think. Besides it was less than six hours into Day 1. I had reason to be a bit more cautious in my suspicions. I'm glad I was, or I might not have started looking at TGWBS. While I was more certain he had intentionally mis-interperted my post, the possibility that he was making a genuine mistake was very real. Further more, I almost always allow for that when I see people mis-representing things. The only exceptions are when I'm evil and trying to lynch an innocent, or when I'm innocent and certain I've found a baddie.

I know I have now laid some points for suspecting her as I'm going to retire for the night (rl) and I can only guess what kind of full-scaled attacks she could launch at me while I'm away...

I already brought up everything on Day 2. Unless I find something else on my read through and graphing (I'm graphing everyone's suspicions, etc), I don't see why I would attack you again. That'd be redundant.

[xyzzy]

Hmm...

At the (admittedly small) chance that TGWBS had any idea what he was talking about, I'm going to vote for...

++Roa

I won't be on until perhaps tonight, but probably tomorrow after day has ended... Darned schedule of mine, I blast thee to the very dankest parts of heck.

...Or somewhere equally bad.

[Roa_Aoife]

I went ahead and added Glirdan, just because.

Brinniel
Day 1, thought Sixth, TGWBS, and Thin as innocent,
suspected Gil and Roa,
slightly suspected TGWBS

Suspected by Nogrod and Legate,
thought innocent by none

Day 2, thought Legate, Mac, Sixth, and Thin innocent,
Suspected Gil, Mith, and Nogrod

Suspected by Mith and Rikae
Thought innocent by Legate, Mac, Nogrod, and Thin

TGWBS
Day 1, Suspected Roa, Sixth, and Thin

Suspected by Mac, Mith, Rikae, and Roa,
thought innocent by Brinniel and Legate

Day 2, Thought Mith, Nogrod, Rikae, and Sixth innocent
Suspected Mac, Roa, and Lommy

Suspected by Nogrod, Rikae, Roa, Sixth, Thin, and xyzzy
Thought innocent by Gil, Legate, and Mac

Glirdan

Suspected Roa, Sixth, and Thin

SUspected by Mac, Mith, Rikae, Roa, Sixth, and Thin



Something interesting- Day 1, Glirdan and TGWBS both had the same three suspects. Now, TGWBS could not have been certain that Glirdan was a wolf, but as Glirdan expressed these suspicions first, and as he avoided ever stating his opinion about Glirdan, it seems a very high probability that he figured it out. Lommy and Sixth did, after all.

The only other person to have these three as top suspects is Gil. Not sure what that says, but it's worth mentioning.

As for Brin, she was highly suspected Day 1, and had enough suspicion on Day 2 that she doesn't seem that obvious of a wolf kill. It leads me to wonder why her and not Sixth, who was trusted by almost everyone? I can't figure out if this points to a wolvish Sixth, or if the wolves had reason to pick Brinniel instead, such as suspecting her of giftedness.

And now that I've looked through, something else has caught my eye: Nogrod's post about potential Cobbler strategies for TGWBS makes option C (see quote) seem like the obvious choice. He even goes on to use it a reasoning for a case against me.

c. If you have a hunch of the wolves identities, attack one of them with some hidden notes to them / relieve players you think bad for the wolves with the same fashion.

This is very convenient for Nogrod, given that TGWBS said he was innocent. It reminds of what the wolfish SPM did when I was the cobbler- trying to make it seem as though I thought he was innocent. As I recall, the then innocent Nogrod didn't fall for it. Why so keen to go for it now, except that it clearly exonerates him?

[Roa_Aoife]

Ah, I forgot: Though Brinniel deemed Thin innocent, she stated that all the suspicion against Thin was making her rethink it, and promised to look further into Lommy today if she was alive. Fortunately for Lommy, Brin didn't make it through the night.

Nogrod was quick to suggest that there was no link between Brin's death and anyone else. That wouldn't be the first time he's protected Lommy.

Also:

It's pretty sure that tgwbs thought Roa a wolf. There's no other way of interpreting some of the points he made - the one I quoted in my last post is a good example.

Is it? I can think of multiple ways to interpert what he said to me. In fact, the way I took it was that he wanted me lynched, something the wolves are typically after, and something a cobbler would be happy to help with. TGWBS is an influencial player. I doubt he would launch so strong an attack against someone he thought was a wolf.

Well, Nogrod, you certainly aren't lowering my suspicions of you today.

[Gil-Galad]

I still can not shrug off my suspicion of Mithalwen...

Brinniel and Gil are definitely misguided and one of them may well be a wolf.


i don't like this, she "suspected" me and Brinniel of being a wolf, and with Brinniel dead, that leaves me, i think that perhaps Mithalwen is trying to direct the attention to me as being a wolf, and if she is the wolf, then she will shrug it off of herself...

don't like it one bit... plus the "i don't care" defenses she has been giving...

[The Sixth Wizard]

Do we have a hunter in the group? Was the Night 2 no-kill because of this or did the wolves just not post a name? Are we allowed to know, mister Menel? :Merisu:

Perhaps the wolves didn't go for me on Night 3 because they thought it would be too obvious. If the hunter really did stop the wolves Night 2 the wolves would have to be more wary, going for someone possibly valuable but not quite innocent in the public eye.

I'll start the rather tedious going over of people's posts soon, in the meantime, my old suspicions stand.

[Macalaure]

tgwbs dead, Brinn dead.

I'm not really surprised they went for Brinniel. Because of these stupid meta-reasons she and Six look(ed) very innocent. Probably the wolves thought Brinn more of a threat than Six. Her opinions are worthy of a second look. Hopefully she was more than just the greater potential threat.

tgwbs looks like an awfully obvious cobbler, in hindsight. I doubt we can read much from his posts. His knowledge was as incomplete as everyone's, and then he even had to twist what he thought he knew in whatever way. I'll try anyway.

Going to be back later.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I wasn't acting surprised; I was surprised. To be perfectly honest, I had given virtually no thought to Brin whatsoever. Seeing as Sixth's voting record had/ has almost the entire village convinced he's innocent, I was fully expecting the wolves to take him out.

Seconded. Even if Roa is lying at that moment to save her neck, this makes perfect sense.

Something interesting- Day 1, Glirdan and TGWBS both had the same three suspects. [Roa, Six, Lommy]
Interesting. If I now based my accusations mainly on what Glirdy and TGWBS did, it would cast rather positive light on Lommy - or if Lommy was a wolf, this would be the meanest trick I've ever seen from both the Cobbler and Glirdan.
But what Roa said about the same suspect does not necessarily prove anything - the common suspects were the three persons who were the most in the spotlight at that time, and it's only logical for the wolves (and their allies) to join accusing bandwaggons, at least a little bit.

As for Brin, she was highly suspected Day 1, and had enough suspicion on Day 2 that she doesn't seem that obvious of a wolf kill. It leads me to wonder why her and not Sixth, who was trusted by almost everyone?
Well, sorry, but this is extremely wolvish. "Hello folks. This and this happened. But wait - this looks strange. WHAT DO YOU THINK...?" Provoking a nowhere leading discussion, which could be as well the reason to kill Brinniel. (One wolf to another: Heya, let's kill Brinn, they'll spend half time debating about why the heck we killed her and not Sixth! - Yeah, yeah, pal, that's a good idea!) So unless anyone has any positive conclusion from why Brinn was killed, I suggest leave it and not post questions which raise debate. The only logical conclusion from someone posting a question to which he himself does not have an answer is that he is hoping someone else to look at it - and post an answer. But why not look at it myself´? You cannot trust the others' answers on that, unless you know they are innocent. So why even bring it up, unless it is a vital question, worthy very much to the village? I don't think this is the case - there are no direct evidencies like Brinniel being a powerful person capable of starting a bandwaggon against one of the wolves, so that the wolves had to kill her. Unless someone has any real evidence, I'd leave this matter.

I'm not really surprised they went for Brinniel. Because of these stupid meta-reasons she and Six look(ed) very innocent. Probably the wolves thought Brinn more of a threat than Six. Her opinions are worthy of a second look. Hopefully she was more than just the greater potential threat.
Yes, or this is another possibility of what the wolves might have thought. I doubt we can read something significant from this one. After all, wolves are wolves and do NOT want to be found.

To the whole TGWBS-Roa-whoeverelsewasthereatthestart issue, we should bear in mind that it was logical for TGWBS to "test water" for who the wolves might be (e.g. as I said earlier, "There is probably at least one wolf in the Roa-Glirdan-Rikae triangle" - TGWBS might have thought similar way). Just to bear this one in mind.

I'll be back! Said Arnie the Senator.

[Nogrod]

Just a piece of unuseful information...

I thought of making a print of the stuff at school so that I could read it in all ease somewhere f.ex. outside after the school as it's a fine spring day and one wouldn't like to just sit at home by the computer.

But I came to other thoughts as I saw the number of pages this game would take in print. 103, to be exact. :eek:

[Mithalwen]

I am just checking in but won't have time to do much.... and I still don't know what Gil is on about.... think I need to read day one.....

[Thinlómien]

This is quite downright ridiculous and unfortunate enough to be funny, but I managed to catch a flu during the easter holiday and should be recovering home... And as I - as most of you probably already know - don't have a net access home, this short library visit is all I can do toDay. I'll post something more related soon...

[Macalaure]

I tried to come up with something interesting, but failed. So here's an overview of my suspicions right now, just to appear helpful. :rolleyes:


Gil-Galad ~ *shrug*

Legate of Amon Lanc ~ fairly unsuspicious. He defends tgwbs even as he was already clearly going down. A wolf might do that, to say "I told you he was innocent" afterwards, but a wolf would have done that differently in some way, I think.

Mithalwen ~ she is somewhat strange, but I get an innocent feel from her

Nogrod ~ even though I still could imagine him being evil, I doubt it. Nogrod is a Sportswolf, and he wouldn't have gone the way to pursue a lynching of xyzzy. I rather guess an innocent Nogrod who doesn't know what else to do would have.

Rikae ~ I looked over her posts again and found nothing suspicious. I'm unfamiliar with a totally unsuspicious Rikae, and therefore wary. ;)

Roa_Aoife ~ I more and more find myself thinking: If Roa is evil, she deserves to win. I really find nothing suspicious about her.

The Sixth Wizard ~ unsuspicious

Thinlómien ~ The cobbler tries to lynch her and innocent Brinn thought her "more innocent than anything". I'm sorry, but I still suspect her like I did yesterDay.

xyzzy ~ ?


Two wolves are probably left and I find everybody but Lommy innocent. Gil? Are Legate or Rikae fooling me marvelously? Or is it really Nogrod in the end? This is frustrating.

[The Sixth Wizard]

Ok people, 10:00 pm (!) or so where I live so I must conduct a finale to my Day.

Gil-Galad ~ Keeps saying we are spread out in our suspicions, that he doesn't like what we are doing (and we have generally been on target so far) generally deterring us from things, doubtful of TGWBS's treachery, regularly suspicious vs. Mith and no-one else, which I think may be a way to keep us off track...

Legate of Amon Lanc ~ Really suspects everyone. He is very smart, I percieve. Blah blah blah... He seems too neutral for me to throw a vote away with him.

Macalaure ~ Same as above. Analyses a couple of people. Doesn't feel guilty overall, votes Lommy for discernable reasons.

Mithalwen ~ Pretty boring really. She doesn't say much in her (short) posts, though she insists quite overactively that she is innocent. Quite open, actually, openly suspects TGWBS as a gifted, and says :

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel

++Mithalwen

Hopefully, I won't be so far off as I was yesterDay...





You are .... you are.....

Nogrod ~ Garr, it's as if he's trying to put us off with LONG, I must admit, waffling posts. So let's decide from his votes. YesterDay: TGWBS. First Day: Glirdan. Two hits. So he is too innocent in his voting to be a wolf in my opinion, at least not yet. Plus he posts near the end of the Day, where the votes are decisive.

Rikae ~ Doesn't say much. I believe in the phrase 'innocent until proven guilty'. Perhaps people will exploit that of me in more Werewolf games.

Roa_Aoife ~ Another long poster like Nogrod. Her votes: YesterDay: Gil-Galad. First Day: TGWBS. Not too much to be discerned and I can't be bothered reading over hers in general.

The Sixth Wizard ~ The one and only! :D

Thinlómien ~ I'm thinking you'd have to be a suicidal wolf to vote and act the way Lommy has been. I find suspicions about her reasonable, but not truths. I don't, however condemn those who suspect her. Hey, I've been right thus far with voting the same as Lommy, why change now...

xyzzy ~ Innocent until proven guilty.

So my final decision... !

++Gil-Galad !

Good Night Everyone and don't let the Werewolves bite! :smokin:

[Meneltarmacil]

*re-animates*

I've already explained why there was no kill on Night 2 on the admin thread.

*crawls back into grave*

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, sorry, but this is extremely wolvish. "Hello folks. This and this happened. But wait - this looks strange. WHAT DO YOU THINK...?" Provoking a nowhere leading discussion, which could be as well the reason to kill Brinniel.

I don't see it as a discussion leading nowhere. There is a reason she was killed, whether it is the reasoning that she looked too innocent to leave alive, or if it was to draw suspicion away from/to the people she thought innocent or guilty. Or perhaps even because they suspected her of being gifted. I want to know that reason, because it will give huge insight into the wolves. Again, from "Werewolf 101" is lesson 42 "Always try to understand why a person was killed by the wolves." (Specifically Derived from the book "Advice on Hunting Wolves-- by Roa Johnson.") ;)

I find the people more eager to dismiss such discussion as wolvish, not those who would encourage it. *imagines Brinniel screaming at her screen because everyone is dismissing her death as uninformative*

For example, Brinniel dismissed Lommy as a wolf, which looks very good for Lommy. However, Brinniel also promised to look more closely into Lommy and why she was being suspected toDay, had she been alive. This could A. be bad for Lommy, or B. be bad for the people who suspected Lommy. So they killed her to avoid this.

I think people she exonerated should be analyzed, as well as people she didn't. I just don't have the time for it this game, so unless someone really worries me, I'm not going to bother. But I am not the only villager here.

Right now, Legate and Nogrod are not looking to good because they insist on dismissing the possibilities. Wolves wanting to hide their true reasoning would do that.

I'm really low on time. Legate has been bugging me for a while, but I've been so sure of Nogrod and Gil that I had excluded the possibility. (That'd be four wolves, after all.) But I find myself less sure of Gil, now, and Legate's continued insistance that we don't know that we don't have a ranger who stopped the kill on Night two bugs me. We all know the reason. I wish I had time to do the analysis of him.

And don't think I've forgotten Rikae. I still don't like how people are quick to discount her becuase of vote placement. If she's a wolf, we'll have played right into her hands.

I'm going to look at the two as much as I can, but I'm low on time. (I'll look at Rikae first- she has a third of what Legate's posted. I'll analyze at Legate toNight, and post that Day 4 first thing, provided I am still alive.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I don't see it as a discussion leading nowhere. There is a reason she was killed, whether it is the reasoning that she looked too innocent to leave alive, or if it was to draw suspicion away from/to the people she thought innocent or guilty. Or perhaps even because they suspected her of being gifted. I want to know that reason, because it will give huge insight into the wolves.
But the point was not that looking for evidence why Brinn was killed is useless. The point was that starting a debate on it without actively posting anything is useless. Simply said: if you already started to dig into that case, I'd expect you to say in the next moment "and I looked into it and I think it happened like this". Otherwise it seems that you don't have any interest in the subject you - yourself - brought into spotlight.

and Legate's continued insistance that we don't know that we don't have a ranger who stopped the kill on Night two bugs me. We all know the reason.
Continued? I said it once, if I remember correctly. And I said it because someone wasn't sure that the no-kill was really only because the wolves didn't send a kill, not because the Ranger saved it. And as you see, some didn't until now - look up before your post, where Six still had some doubts on it and poor Menel himself had to rise from his grave.

However, back to the topic:
For example, Brinniel dismissed Lommy as a wolf, which looks very good for Lommy. However, Brinniel also promised to look more closely into Lommy and why she was being suspected toDay, had she been alive. This could A. be bad for Lommy, or B. be bad for the people who suspected Lommy. So they killed her to avoid this.
I was about to point that if Lommy is among the wolves, it was a good move for the Wolves not to kill anyone from the Lommy-voters, otherwise, things might have become far more clear. So if you ask me, as I said earlier - and Mac said something similar - I think there are no "personal interests" in killing Brinniel.

I'm still waiting for more input from some other people, though... seems we are not hearing from Lommy today, so I might reconsider voting for her and wait till (if) she shows up.

[Roa_Aoife]

Rikae
Day 1
1st post - in character nonsense

2nd post - disagreement with Roa, would rather gifted come forward, slight suspicion

Interestingly, I was looking for people to debate my post. I figured the wolves (and apparently the cobbler) would try to carry on the debate about roles. Rikae was the first, and so seems to have fallen into the trap. I wonder though- she seems to take issue more with the way I argued rather than what I argued.

3rd post - Doesn't know what to make of Glirdan, will reserve judgement, Finds TGWBS off, primarily because of his accusations against Roa and Thin, points out that a hunter may not get to kill if lynched, doesn't like Legate's attitude

4th post - Says she hasn't had time to read through entirely, votes Glirdan.

This coupled with the last post bothers me slightly. She was so unsure of Glirdan, then suddenly pops in to vote for him. Admittedly, her vote tied Glirdan with Lommy, but she herself sad that she hadn't had time to finish the read through, so she may not have realized this was the case. She offers no further reasoning. It's very convenient for her that Glirdan was lynched and revealed to be evil- otherwise, she would have come under some fire for this.


Day 2
1st post - Thinks that the lack of kill means that a ranger protected the victim, finds TGWBS suspicious for tying Lommy with Glirdan, also Brinniel, for promising not to vote for a now known wolf, and for her last post of Day 1, thinks Nogrod and sixth are innocent

Knowing now that TGWBS was a cobbler, he makes a nice target for Rikae, who, if evil, could only have known that he was not a wolf. That is admitedly a big if, though.

2nd post - doesn't think Nogrod would sacrifice a fellow wolf so early, gives reasons why Nogrod could have saved Glirdan

Seeing as how I believe Nogrod is evil, I wonder if Rikae would defend him so. I somehow doubt it. Of course, if he's not (I can be wrong), and she is, this could be an attempt to "make friends" with a very powerful player. On the third hand, she could just be an innocent who really believes Nogrod is innocent.

3rd post - Defends Sixth to Legate, thinks Legate needs to be looked at more closely, Votes TGWBS, thinks Roa has a good point about Gil.

This looks very innocent, actually. Votes and leaves again.


Day 3
1st post - hasn't seen a plausible case for Lommy being a wolf



On the whole, she looks more innocent than guilty. However, there are a few things that irk me, and her reponse to my first post, which was used by a known wolf to attack me, makes me wonder. I can see her laughing evilly as a wolf because very few people suspect her, but I could also see her as a really good innocent. It's a tough call. I never like to exonerate anyone completely (that's how wolves slip by) but I don't think that justifies lynching her toDay. Tomorrow may be a another story.

[Roa_Aoife]

I have to leave NOW.

++Nogrod

As if it's any surprise.

[Nogrod]

++Nogrod
As if it's any surprise.Well, in a sense it is. I mean it took you up to Day3 to come up with that action... :rolleyes:

Okay. I've read the thread through with some speed. I need to eat now but will be back soon enough.

But I must say that Roa's vote didn't help to lower my suspicion of her at all. Not that she voted for me - as anyone has the right to vote for whomever they wish - but the lack of anything credible behind it. That doesn't sound like an innocent Roa at all. I'll be back with this later.

Also I've been thinking that as we clearly don't seem to have a werebear in this game (there was only one kill last Night and none in the first) it would suggest that we have lovers on board. Menel promised surprises and having a cobbler hardly counts as one. There might even be other ones but it's probably insensible to go on speculating about those too much.

It's looking interesting how f.ex. Macalaure has defended Roa from Day1 on quite insistently - his last post is one of the most curious where he says that he can't find anything suspicious about her - and basically suspects only Lommy - but when he finally lists his last doubts; whether Gil, Legate, Rikae or myself have indeed fooled him marvellously, he doesn't mention the chance that Roa has fooled him (which should always be on one's mind...). I'm just curious about that. I'll come to this later as well.

And a small correction still: Right now, Legate and Nogrod are not looking to good because they insist on dismissing the possibilities. Wolves wanting to hide their true reasoning would do that.I have nowhere stated that we should not look at what Brinniel has said. I openly said we might gain something from her posting - as from anyone's posting. And here we know she was innocent at least, so even if she didn't knew any more than we do, we can rely on her having good intentions and not trying to mislead us. Surely. But what I think was important to say was that I'm afraid the main reason she was killed lies elsewhere than in the actual substance she said. That I'm afraid is still true *cursed meta-reasons*. We should also remember that the wolves may also sway the interpretation on why someone was killed to serve their purposes. So insisting on reading something out of them is not any less suspicious than remarking their possible non-exacteness at particular situations. Indeed the wolves are much more ready to twist the interpretation of the dead one as they have had time to discuss and think the situation before the Day dawned.

[Macalaure]

Noggie, you're not helping your own cause. :p


Why do you suddenly start to speculate about werebears and lovers? There might even be other ones but it's probably insensible to go on speculating about those too much.Hear, hear... :Merisu:


I'm not aware that I've been defending Roa. I'm only saying that she looks innocent to me, which is what she does. he doesn't mention the chance that Roa has fooled himI also didn't say explicitly that Mith might have fooled me. Of course that chance exists. At this point right now, I just feel it far less likely than that Rikae or Legate might have.


And then there's a "small" correction about a point which is absolutely uninteresting. A debate about whether Brinn's points are useful or not is pointless (in the truest sense of the word), and bringing it up / keeping it in the spotlight - wolvish! If somebody picks something good up from her, excellent, but this is silly.


Waffles with cream.

[Macalaure]

Right now, I am still very suspicious of Lommy, but I obviously can't bring up anything new about her. I won't vote for her today, unless I really can't find anybody better, because she had no possibility to participate on this Day.

The great alternative would be Nogrod. He looks very suspicious at some times and very unsuspicious at other times. The alarming thing: everytime I played against an evil Nogrod, I felt about him this way!

I won't vote for Roa, Mith, Six and xyzzy.

I most probably won't vote for Rikae and Legate, unless somebody brings some very good points about them, or they themselves start acting wolvish suddenly.

Gil would be the only other candidate. I need to have a closer look at him to see clearer.

[Nogrod]

And then there's a "small" correction about a point which is absolutely uninteresting. A debate about whether Brinn's points are useful or not is pointless (in the truest sense of the word), and bringing it up / keeping it in the spotlight - wolvish! If somebody picks something good up from her, excellent, but this is silly. Funny you didn't point at Roa with that - who actually brought this issue back and used it to lay suspicion on me and Legate...

And I do disagree with you a bit. When something like that is used as a suspicion-caster there are all the reasons to counter them - at least when they are clearly fabricated... The bit I agree with you is that debating whether there is something in Brinn's posts without actually pointing to some is futile.

Why do you suddenly start to speculate about werebears and lovers?Because I started to get a feeling I was looking at a pair of lovers staring me from these pages we play...

EDIT: X'd with Macalaure