WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Thinlómien]

I am on the three-peaked mountain. I have a feeling I've been here before. When I look back I see the lights of the city of Gondolin. But something pulls me forward, some unknown force. I can't resist. I want to stop but my feet don't obey me. I'm going deeper to the dark. I'm afraid. They are waiting for me, as if summoned by my fear. They feel me approaching, they hear the blood pounding in my ears, they smell my sweat. I'm trying to turn back, but even if I could, it would be too late. There's one behind me, there's one beside me, there's one before me. I stop. They come closer. Flame and shadow, shadow and flame, merging into one, parting into three. I scream.

”Mother! I had the dream again.”
”It's alright, darling, it's alright.”
”It was the cave dream again.”
”I know, my darling, I know.”
”It was the third time.”
”Let's go to tell Grandpa Turgon, darling, let's go.”

~*~

”What be it, my dears, that ails you?” High King Turgon asked.
”The little one has had the dream again. Something must be done. I fear... the worst”, Idril said, glancing at her son.
The King looked at his grandson. ”The three-peaked mountain again?”
The boy nodded. ”They were there”, he said in a small voice.
”I must send someone to investigate”, the King said, ”there might be something to this. After all, you, Eärendil, are the son of Tuor the Messenger of Ulmo and my daughter Idril, who sees far.”
”Lord, I will go, if it pleases you!” a clear voice came from behind the King's throne.
”Glorfindel of the Golden Flower, I did not know you have the evil habit of eavesdropping! More would it please me if you used your gift for good.”
”Then, my lord, let me go to the mines!”
”Your wish is granted. Glorfindel of the Golden Flower, you shall go to the mines at the three-peaked mountain and find out what is happening there. And don't forget to take your sword with you.”

~*~

Every step takes me closer to the three peaks. A dark cloud lingers above the mountains. There's something wrong. Glorfindel shook his head. He had a bad feeling about this.

~*~

The old miner Thinlómion frowned. ”Anything special? Well, we found a new lode of iron ore this morning. That was a good find, even though I'd rather have found a silverlode. They are rare these days. Maeglin's miners found last year, but it was a thin one...”
”Excuse me, master Thinlómion. Anything else?” Glorfindel asked impatiently.
”Oh, nothing special, I guess. Three new workers came here yesterday, but that's hardly anything special, it happens all the time: the workers come and go. No one stays for long, except Maeglin's folk, they are the only ones who like it here.”
”Speaking of workers... where am I going to work?”
”Hmmm... I think you can work under my old friend Aganwë. I'll show you to his place, he'll assign you your duties.”

~*~

”I can’t understand why there’s no word of him!” Tuor bellowed.
“Hush”, said his wife, “you’re waking the little one. He should sleep.”
“How could I be silent, my fair lady? My friend, one of the finest and most valiant men there ever was in this city, is in trouble, possibly already dead.”
“I’m sure nothing’s wrong with him. There might have just been... snow in the mountains, so no messenger has been able to pass. Or maybe he just doesn’t have anything to report.”
“Or maybe your father hasn’t sen fit to tell me anything”, Tuor said, an edge of bitterness to his voice, “or maybe Glorfindel is dead.”
“You know my father isn’t like that! He took you here, treated you like his own son and let you marry his daughter. How could you accuse him of such thing? Tuor, that kind of hot-headedness is not like you. What is wrong with you?”
“Idril, Idril, don’t you see? Glorfindel, my friend, has walked to an unknown danger and probably died. But it should have been me, not him. It was my son’s dream, not his, wasn’t it? I should have gone, not him.”
“He was willing to go.”
“I would have been too, but no one saw it fit to tell me.”
“My love, you were away and the matter was urgent.”
“Nevertheless, it should have been me, not him, to go to investigate this thing. It is more than my duty to go after him and see nothing has happened to him.”
“Tuor, don’t leave me, don’t leave our son. I fear... I fear the Enemy knows. You should be here to protect Eärendil if...”
Tuor kissed his wife lightly on the top of her head. “I promise no such thing will happen. Don’t be afraid. I’m sorry, but I must go.” He let go of his wife, turned and walked away.
“Tuor! Don’t leave me!”
He glanced one last time to his wife, but said nothing and hurried to find his weapons and traveling gear.

~*~

Idril could not sleep. She knew everything was not well. There had been no word of Glorfindel or of her husband. My love, to think that you’re there in the mines and that there might be a deadly threat there... She had demanded and pleaded that her father should send a party of soldiers to see if everything was alright in the mines. He had declined it. He had said: “It would ruin everything. The soldiers couldn’t know if Tuor and Glorfindel were safe and sound unless they forced them to reveal. That would ruin the whole operation. They’re both there, spying, in a miner’s disguise. If they were to reveal themselves to my soldiers or leave a word, everybody in the mines would learn their true identities and their mission would fail. No, we must just wait patiently.” But Idril, she couldn’t wait any longer.

One morning Turgon found a note from his rooms.
“Dear father,
I see you can’t send soldiers to check if my beloved is alive and well. Thus I must go myself. I can’t stand this any longer. I have gone to the mines, in a miner’s disguise and I wish to find my dearest (and also Lord Glorfindel). Take care of my little son and see he is safe.
With love,
Idril Celebrindal”

High King Turgon was grieved and strangled with worry, but he couldn’t send soldiers after his daughter. He knew that if there truly were Morgoth’s servants in the mines, the last thing they should find out was that the High King’s only daughter was there.

He might have sent the soldiers anyway, if he had known that his grandson Eärendil had run off and left to the mines as well.

[Thinlómien]

The players:
3 Werebalrogs
Seer
Ranger
Hunter
Cobbler
8 ordinary miners

among which are the Lovers.

Werebalrogs:
Each Night they choose a villager to kill. The werebalrogs may PM with each other during the Night phases. No PMing during the Day. One of the werebalrogs must PM the kill to me, preferably one hour before the deadline at least, so that the narration can be in time (I will be flexible with this as there might be timezone problems, but would hope the wb:s could send their kills in time). The werebalrogs win when there are as many wbs left as there are villagers – then they are just happy to massacre the remaining villagers.

Cobbler:
Is an ordinary person who just wants the balrogs to win. S/he will play as an ordo (so no special abilities), but wins only if the balrogs win, so s/he will try to make them win. However, s/he doesn’t know who the werebalrogs are. In this game, the cobbler will be seen as the cobbler by the seer when dreamed of, but counted as an ordo in the tallies.

Seer:
Each Night chooses a person to dream of. The person’s role will be revealed to the seer. The seer PMs her/his dream choices to me each night. The seer is on the ordinary people’s side and wins if the werebalrogs are defeated.

Ranger:
Each Night the ranger chooses a person to protect. The chosen person can’t be killed by the balrogs that Night; the ranger protects him/her. The ranger plays on the ordinary people’s side and wins if the werebalrogs are defeated. The ranger can’t pick the same person to protect for two Nights in a row.

Logical Hunter:
Picks a person to hunt whenever s/he wishes to; s/he can change her/his pick whenever s/he wants to. The following rules apply to hunter kills: if the hunter has picked a werebalrog and is killed during the Night, s/he will take the picked wb with him/her. If s/he has picked an ordinary villager or any gifted, s/he will die alone. If the hunter is lynched, his/her pick will go with him/her, be s/he guilty or innocent. The hunter should feel free to reconsider her/his pick at anytime during the game. S/he is not tied to the one pick/Night –rule and s/he doesn’t have to change his/her pick Nightly. The logical hunter is on the ordinary people’s side and wins if the werebalrogs are defeated.

Ordinary Miners aka Ordinary Villagers:
Have no special activities to perform and win if the werebalrogs are defeated.

Lovers
Might be any people from the roles mentioned above. If the seer dreams of a lover, s/he does not see him/her as a lover, but as their actual role (for example an ordinary villager or a werebalrog). I will not give any further information about the lovers to anyone but the lovers themselves.


Miscellaneous Rules:

- The Days and the Nights last 24 hours.

- The deadline is 7 PM GMT.

- The roles will be revealed upon death.

- There will be no double-lynches (or triple or quadrupule or whatever...) lynches. The first one to reach the highest vote count will be lynched.

- There are no retractable votes, so once you’ve voted, you can’t change it.

- If there's a tie, the player reaching the highest vote first is lynched

- There will be no clues about the gifteds, werebalrogs or ordinary villagers’ identities in the narrations.

- The dead players can’t post on the thread.

- No player can use PMs to verify anything they say.

- Editing is only allowed to correct spelling/grammar mistakes, to go back and bold/italicize something etc. or to mark cross-posts, so it’s not for changing the content of one’s posts.

- All players must be in the Invisible Mode.

- Players are forbidden to talk to each other about the game anywhere else but on the game thread. (And admin thread for off-game announcements.) Werebalrogs and lovers, of course, make an exception.

- Absences etc. should be announced in the admin thread (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=14361), which I hope all the players would check frequently.

- Players who don’t post or vote in two Days in a row will be removed from the game.

- The votes should be cast as follows:

++ Aganzir

(on a separate line, bolded, ++ in the beginning)

- Aganzir will be the mod-in-case-of-emergency. She will be there if I'm somehow unable to come to stop the day or something like that. She has also helped me with planning and we will co-write some narrations. You can trust her word about things in this game (unless I have said something that disagrees with what she has said).

~*~

Players
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lhunardawen
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Naria
Nerwen
Nogrod
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
The Might
Volo

~*~

Please don’t post anything on this thread before Day1 starts. If you have something to say concerning this game, post it in the said admin thread.

Night1 will start today, November 11th, on 7pm GMT. The roles will be given out before that.

[Thinlómien]

Night1 starts now. Lovers and werebalrogs, you may send PMs. Seer please send me your dream pick. Hunter, you may choose a "victim", but you're definately in no hurry, because it's me who's going to die toNight anyway.

Day 1 will start tomorrow at 7.00 pm GMT, so this first Night will be a bit shorter than a usual Day/Night phase.

Please don't post anything here...

[Thinlómien]

A clear voice came amidst the sound of falling water.

”Ei múmitaloa lucita yócsi, hei múmí! Cun hamara hípú yo tahtien vyócsi, hei múmí...! Nyt carceloi cansa ya cunnailla soi, cas múmeilta elamá opia voi... hei múmí!”

Tuor recognised both the song and the voice instantly. It had to be Glorfindel, singing the famous battle (and bath) song of the House of the Golden Flower. Tuor couldn't help smiling. So his friend was alive and well and as cheerful as usual. Sighing, Tuor retreated back to the shadows. It was better that they did not see each other. It was better Glorfindel wouldn't see him at all and that he did not see Glorfindel in his disguise. If they knew each other, they might not be able to hide their friendship and thus their mission would be risked.

~*~

Eärendil took off his miner's clothes. Pretending to be an adult was harder than he had expected. He folded up the clothes and hid them behind a stone. Resolutely, he walked into the little brook, curled up in a ball and fell asleep.

~*~

”Who is it? Who is calling me?”
”Don't you know my voice, darling, don't you know?”
”You shouldn't be here.”
”You shouldn't be here either.”
”You know I must be here. But you don't have to.”
”I couldn't be without you any longer.”
”It is not a reason to risk your life.”
”Maybe love is more important to me than it is to you.”
”Oh, let's not start quarrelling, my love, it has been so long since we last met.”
”I guess it depends on what you consider a long time...”
”Every second without you feels like a hundred years.”

~*~

”He said he suspects some spies have arrived from the City”, said the Balrog with Swing.
”Then we must act”, said the Balrog with Bling.
”That shall we do”, agreed the Balrog who Sings.

They decided to make the roof of the passageway collapse. They started whipping the roof with their fiery whips and the Balrog who Sings started singing:

”Just whistle while you work
And cheerfully together we can tidy up the place
So hum a merry tune”

”What's going on?” Thinlómion the Old Miner asked grumpily. ”You woke me up. Who are you and what are you doing to the roof?”
”We are da Werebalrogs, dude!” the Balrog with Bling replied enthusiastically.
”And we're making the passageway collapse”, the Balrog with Swing continued easily.
”Don't let it bother you, forget your troubles,
Try to be just like a cheerful chick-a-dee”, the Balrog who Sings adviced the old miner.

”Stop right now, thank you very much! You foul creatures of Morgoth! I'll wake the others and they'll kill you!” Thinlómion shouted.
”That you're not going to do”, warned the Balrog with Swing and picked the elf up. He rose up and started flying around the cave in circles.

”Do balrogs have wings?” the Balrog with Swing asked casually.
”What?” asked Thinlómion.
”Do balrogs have wings?”
”Of course they don't!” Thinlómion shouted, horrified by the unnatural idea, ”There's nothing in the books that states they have actual wings!”
”A pity”, said the Balrog with Swing, ”then we must fall. Because I can't fly without wings.”

They fell together. The old miner's frail bones broke when he hit the stony floor. His twisted body was surrounded by a great shadowy fire. Then the Balrog with Swing emerged from the flame and bowed. His companions applauded. He grinned. ”Now let's get back to work.”

~*~

The miners woke up when the passageway roof came crashing down. In the chaos that followed, no one noticed that three of the miners didn't actually look like they had just woken up nor that there was one miner whose hair was dripping water.

”What the Utumno is happening here?!” satansaloser2005 shouted.
”The roof of the passageway just collapsed!” Nogrod roared.
”We're in a dead end”, screamed Lhunardawen.
”We are trapped”, The Might said, fear in his voice.
”Don't worry! We have plenty of space here, so we're not going to suffocate”, Mithalwen said.
”Besides, there's a brook running over there and we all have food with us, don't we?” Volo said cheerfully.
”This doesn't look so bad, after all”, Kath concluded.
”But this does!” Gil-Galad said, upset, ”come and see what's happened here!”

Thinlómion's body was laying on the floor, half buried among the fallen stones. The other old miner, Aganwë, was kneeling by his body and weeping. ”Wake up, dear”, he sobbed.
”Oh Valar, Thinlómion is dead”, Legate of Amon Lanc whispered.
”What happened here?” Naria asked Aganwë.
”I don't know. Leave me alone, I don't want to see you, leave me alone!”, he screamed.
”I think he's gone crazy”, Shastanis Althreduin said in a low voice.
”Poor old man”, Macalaure said empathically.
”Go away! And don't disturb me unless you really need something. I don't care. My world has fallen apart. Kill each other or something, I don't care”, Aganwë said in a broken voice.
”I think we'd better leave him alone”, Brinniel suggested.

They moved away from the dead man and his grieving friend.
”Horrible things happen in this world”, Nerwen said, shaking.
”What shall we do?” Rikae asked hopelessly.

”There are three werebalrogs among you. Wipe them out. All of them”, a mighty unearthly voice bellowed from the little brook.

”Ulmo”, Eärendil whispered.


~ written by Thinlómien and Aganzir

~*~

Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - killed by a wingless balrog on Night1

Living
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lhunardawen
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Naria
Nerwen
Nogrod
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
The Might
Volo

Day1 starts. Elf miners and the ones disguised as such (in other words, all of you players), you can start discussing.

[Nogrod]

Let's just organise ourselves people.

The innocent miners to the left and do-gooders should blend in I suppose... and the baddies who are behind all this havoc to the right. Okay?

Now let's see the persons remaining at the right side and lynch them once and for all...

Well no one that is.

C'mon, be fair guys! What's all this hide and seek stuff about?

And how about if this one with wet hair being kind enough to explain?

[Mithalwen]

Care to say which side you are standing on? Nogrod? It would solve my dilemmas as to whether I should summarily vote for Kath for being inscrutable or Gil-galad for being confusing...:rolleyes: However I shall not be hasty. But actually reading posts might force me to abandon age long prejudices.... Anyone else talking?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

And how about if this one with wet hair being kind enough to explain?
Hey, but that's you, sir! What are you going to say on that?

C'mon, be fair guys! What's all this hide and seek stuff about?
Definitely! But are these shadow-and-flame guys fair enough to reveal to us?

But if they are not as fair guys, I wouldn't be as sure whether the actual villain would have already dried his head, so...

I only hope there is no xyzzy among us...

[Nogrod]

I only hope there is no xyzzy among us...Seconded indeed...

Care to say which side you are standing on? Nogrod? It would solve my dilemmasThat's easy... I'm a fool-proof pure basic innocent. But that's what I would say whatever my role was. Although in this case it's true... which I would also say in any possible role. But as I said, I'm an innocent, which fact I would admit in any... :D

And I'm afraid you Legate have it right. They won't reveal themselves so we just have to pick them out one by one with inquiry and deduction. Hopefully with some nice schemes and tactical manouvers as well. But all that in turn is impossible if there is no wider partaking in the discussions.

So if you Balrogs won't co-operate with lining yourselves against the wall to be executed would you then please open your mouths?

And surely everyone else is encouraged to open their mouths as well...

[The Might]

No point on blaming each other folks, as we know nothing for now. For all we know, it could be anyone of us.
But the question remains...who is it?

[Mithalwen]

Seconded indeed...

That's easy... I'm a fool-proof pure basic innocent.


Are you sure... if you think anything is fool-proof you are liable to find that someone has found a new class of fool.....

I suspect I may have to wait for tomorrow for much of significance..... due to the strange time zone issues that affect this part of Gondolin...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So if you Balrogs won't co-operate with lining yourselves against the wall to be executed would you then please open your mouths?

And surely everyone else is encouraged to open their mouths as well...
Which reminds me, unfortunately, the first Day is going to be a little bit tight for me, because it may happen that I am not going to be around here at the deadline so I'd be bound to vote somewhat early (wasn't it also Tuesday the first day in Gil's game?). And that would be in the morning, which is about 10 hours from now, so, not much fun. So, this is one more reason for everyone to talk, so that I may choose my vote based on some real evidence and not just randomly.

[Mithalwen]

However, it should be borne in mind that many peole are reluctant to vote for someone wh hasn't said much, "who hasn't been around to defend themselves" etc...and the wolves.... (given that it is unlikely but not impossible that all wolves are first time players) will be aware of that. Obviously deliberate non participation is a dangerous strategy but this is a small group to face 3 werebeasts and a cobbler even with a ranger about.

The innocents can't afford to be too noble .... no one can be discounted, not the quiet, not the noisy, and certainly not the pseudo helpful not the flyers-under- the radar....

but if noone else is around I shall go to my rest...

[Nogrod]

but if noone else is around I shall go to my rest...Well I'm around but there seems to be quite a little to pay heed to. I'll try anyhow. Just a moment.

[Nogrod]

As this seems to be quite sticky let's throw some balls around for catching... We should not play this game the way we have done this far but in a way actually trying to do something.

What has happened then so far?

Nogrod: Joking first post, tries to assert himself as the MC around here, at least in-characterwise. Very fishy indeed. And calls for the wet-haired one to explain her/his status? Now he must be up to something evil. I'd have all my red-alerts on at the moment. On second post he seemingly plays friendly with both Mith and Legate. That friendliness can be seen in his last post as well. And to top it all he seems to play with the possible innocense / guiltiness of himself in his second post - or the general fact of trusting / asking someone's word.

Mith: Starting with trying to make a jokingly warm relationship with Nogrod and indicating she might make the (safe!) vote for either Kath or Gil from tradition. That's as bad as saying one will vote by flipping a coin. No tracks left behind that is. Genuine wolf-tactics (Balrog-tactics): appeasing vocal players and backing up one's own vote forthcoming... On second post pure joking and passing the real discussion further. On third some general sense coupled with saying this and that cancelling each statement out = saying nothing. Looking helpful and villager-friendly while backing up her steps to come. Just what a balrog-Mith would do.

Legate: He calls people to speak but gives pretty little himself. Oh, how careful he is! Just look at them two posts! A joke, a storyline joke, making a comment on the undesirableness of non-posters, saying he won't be able to take part later in the Day, calling for people to talk so that he might make an educated deduction on what has been discussed. That is so carefully played... A balrog would mind his words that carefully.

The Might: Now what is this? What's the point of saying: No point on blaming each other folks, as we know nothing for now. For all we know, it could be anyone of us. But the question remains...who is it? ? And not saying anything else but that!
So looking very agreeable indeed - and stating nonconsequential trivialities? Wouldn't a balrog like to stage that kind of image of himself? Helpful-sounding & -feeling but noncommitant. Like from a werewolf-handbook!

Okay. I'm probably pretty wrong with a few around here and you may guess I'm not the most serious with these at this stage. But the point is, let's start making some advances towards creating real discussion. And with probabilities I might be right with one of the people posted this far...

And as I have said and acted so many times before: I'm more than happy to vote any non-posters out on the first Day if there are no good reasons to claim that a loudmouth actually is suspicious enough.

That sure is just my point of view.

But please do start talking fellows.

[Brinniel]

Well, I'm here, though I'm afraid I don't have too much to say. With fifteen of us, I was hoping it would be a bit noisier by now. I suppose we'll just have to wait around and see who shows up.

The innocents can't afford to be too noble .... no one can be discounted, not the quiet, not the noisy, and certainly not the pseudo helpful not the flyers-under- the radar....
I agree. These werebalrogs could be hiding anywhere among us. Everyone must be watched closely, even the most innocent seeming or these newbies among us...

EDIT: X-ed with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Well, I'm here, though I'm afraid I don't have too much to say. With fifteen of us, I was hoping it would be a bit noisier by now. I suppose we'll just have to wait around and see who shows up.Isn't this just the problem? If everyone just pops in and says "oh, there's so little to say, let's wait if someone comes along", aren't we just postponing the actual start of the arguments - to back our own tails? If everyone acted like this we would be only blind-guessing at things. So people need to take risks, to commit themselves for the game to exist. Otherwise we could just run a lottery for votes and stop this posting altogether. But where's the fun then?

Like those people sitting alone in their car in the morning traffic-jam and swearing why all those other cars have to be there while they are part of the problem themselves... :(

[Lhunardawen]

Okay, three werebalrogs, one cobbler, and a couple of lovers hidden somewhere. And then the standard three gifteds - and I hope there aren't any lovers there. But in any case, we innocent miners do stand a fighting chance.

I don't think we should give much heed to these lovers, at least not yet while the threat of the balrogs is still more immediate, but I'm quite sure they'll be male and female. And they would be carefully tiptoeing around each other in our presence lest they lose control and start displaying public displays of affection. Of course, now that I've mentioned that, they might instead openly and passionately disagree with each other. Bah, love. It's a nuisance.

Ehem. Where was I. Balrogs. There's no use throwing non-random suspicions if a lot still have not spoken up, so I will wait. I have some mining work to do that will take at least ten hours straight, anyway. :rolleyes:

[Rikae]

Well, I have a feeling of déjà vu all over again! Something about this situation looks so familiar... I think I had a dream like this once, except that it involved Dr. Evil holding basketball games in a German university.
I can't say I agree with The Might. "No use blaming each other", eh? What do you suggest instead - blaming ourselves? That would look extremely cobblerish.
Then again, Nogrod seems to be doing just that. He has always been a sober and realistic werewolfer, not prone to wild conspiracy theories or in-character nonsense. What's good enough for Nogrod is good enough for me.
Therefore, I wholeheartedly suggest that we lynch Rikae. She has played ten games over the past year and has never been lynched - I say it's her turn. Besides, she is evil: she smashed my finger in a car door once. Oh, that's anachronistic - make it a van. She also is acting erratic and bizarre, which is clearly a sign of Balroggery.
Or, if you prefer, we could lynch 'the quiet ones':
Gil-Galad, Kath, Lhunardawen, Macalaure, Naria, Nerwen, satansaloser2005, Shastanis Althreduin and Volo. What the heck, we could throw in The Might, Rikae and Brinniel as well. Then again, that could be counter-productive.

Enough silliness. As the weaver, I am certain that Rikae is a balrog, and Mithalwen and Lhuna are her companions in crime.

++Rikae

EDIT - X'd with Lhuna

[The Might]

What's the point of me saying that?
Well, I could just as well start thinking if Lhunardawen really means it when she says "we innocent miners" implying she's a good person or if she only wants to mislead us, or if it's reverse-reverse-reverse-psychology.
I personally wouldn't be so hasty so as to start such accusations, since really to little has been said.

See, now you could think I'm afraid you think I'm a bad guy and try to explain my last post hoping to make the night or maybe I'm simply telling my opinion.
Who knows? That's the point.

Unfortunately I must go off to bed now and I'm back tomorrow only an hour before the deadline, so I'm not sure if I'll manage to post anything but the vote before the night starts.

[Brinniel]

Isn't this just the problem? If everyone just pops in and says "oh, there's so little to say, let's wait if someone comes along", aren't we just postponing the actual start of the arguments - to back our own tails? If everyone acted like this we would be only blind-guessing at things. So people need to take risks, to commit themselves for the game to exist. Otherwise we could just run a lottery for votes and stop this posting altogether. But where's the fun then?
Yes, but if I don't have much to say, then what am I supposed to say? I'd much rather drop in and make a few short serious comments than waste my time bantering.

I don't like to form my opinions on someone based on joking and bantering. It's really hard to know what to expect from it. And when several people do it, it's easy for a wolf (or balrog) to hide within that group. Often, I've found first Day mistakes are made from misinterpreted bantering and joking.

At least I've said something. I could've just not posted at all and waited for more people to come along and provide more substance (and I wouldn't be surprised if there are players doing that at this very moment).

EDIT: X-ed with Rikae and Might

[The Might]

I must say, I agree with Brinniel on this one.
I'll take a look tomorrow and see if any posts have been made that might help make my decision.

Though I must say, Rikae has a very...special way of starting the game. :D

[Brinniel]

Rikae, I know you're not being serious, but why would you waste your vote like that? Remember, there are no retractions.

Going suicidal is not going to help us find the werebalrogs...

[Nerwen]

Greeting, my fellow-miners.

In principle, I'm inclined to suspect the "quiet ones". After all, if I were a werebalrog I'd be lying low at this point, waiting for somebody to accuse an innocent miner so I could jump on the bandwagon.

But we must remember that these mines are full of strange pockets of temporal anomaly. I, for example, have been trapped in one for several hours and have only recently been able to find my way out. So I don't think silence is incriminating– yet.

As everyone else has said, we don't have much to go on. And yet... and yet... I'd like to share my thoughts on Rikae's behaviour.

At first glance, her vote against herself appears to be either a joke or an act of self-sacrifice. But a single vote against her doesn't really endanger her very much. Let's look at its immediate effect– to divert suspicion from herself.

Witness other people's reactions:

Rikae, I know you're not being serious, but why would you waste your vote like that? Remember, there are no retractions.

Going suicidal is not going to help us find the werebalrogs...

Though I must say, Rikae has a very...special way of starting the game. :D

Of course, an innocent villager could also benefit from such a clever double bluff. I'm not accusing Rikae, just pointing out that we shouldn't be assuming she's not guilty.

[satansaloser2005]

Indeed, Nerwen, Rikae's apparent self-sacrifice my be merely an attempt to divert suspicion, yet at the same time may just be her way of spicing up the game. I have yet to decide if she is harboring balrog tendencies or if she's just baking up some cobbler with which to bait the balrogs. My apologies, I like to make stupid jokes. :)


I, on the other hand, am quite certain of my standing as a poor miner, although I realize I could do nothing to convince you, my fellow villagers, of such things. In the meantime, I shall simply watch and wait, and perhaps even stumble over a balrog or two over the course of the day's voting and discussion.



p.s. what are the odds I could be listed in the village numbers as sally? just because my full username is so long. i may change it, but i'm not really sure if i can yet or not. i'm going to go investigate that :)

[Nerwen]

I have yet to decide if she is harboring balrog tendencies or if she's just baking up some cobbler with which to bait the balrogs. My apologies, I like to make stupid jokes. :)

*scratches head* Er... don't get it, Sally. I think we have a language problem. Do you mean you think she's the cobbler, or that she's acting as a target in the hope of drawing the balrogs into the open?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hello and welcome, all ye merry gentlemen.

Or something.

I'd just like to say that I have arrived, and find Rikae's vote to be extremely odd, given the "no retractions" rule.

Rikae? A comment?

[Volo]

Which reminds me, unfortunately, the first Day is going to be a little bit tight for me, because it may happen that I am not going to be around here at the deadline so I'd be bound to vote somewhat early (wasn't it also Tuesday the first day in Gil's game?). And that would be in the morning, which is about 10 hours from now, so, not much fun. So, this is one more reason for everyone to talk, so that I may choose my vote based on some real evidence and not just randomly.
Yup, it was. Like in the preveous game, I'll be able to play only near the end of the Day. Timewise the game is uncomfortable for me... I might get to a computer during the Day for a short time.

Anyway, no unthought accusations from me, yet.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, seems at least something is starting to happen. The main crisis is behind us.

Nogrod, as always, had a very nice "kick in". Now, of course, the problem is that with him, you never know whether he seems joking, helpful, or whatever he just seems, because he is joking, helpful or whatever; or because he is hiding behind this mask. But personally, he gives out "normal" vibes to me, at least nothing too suspicious.

Brinniel seems quite all right to me, with her reaction to Nogrod - I believe a guilty Brinn would act differently.

Now Rikae... I can quite imagine her looks when she was posting that, she was laughing aloud - but then it's still the question whether she is a cobbler (Nerwen, I believe cobbler is some sort of a pie or something... is that correct?) or something else...
And I would like to bring forward that she's lying (about not being lynched in ten previous games): I can remember very well that in the first game I was playing, she was lynched the first day. And that was, if I'm correct, WW XXX, so it's only nine games ago.

The Might is a new one around here, so there is nothing much to compare his behavior with. He has this interesting double-triple-whatever-combination theory that I know very well (using that often :rolleyes:), but this does not signify anything by itself, only a style of playing (maybe). It will need more input. I'm a little bit afraid to let this out of my lips, because people may start sticking to that, and some balrogs the most, and that's not good; but I'll be probably reluctant to vote for someone of the new ones on the first day. Though, it is true that this far, they all seem quite active (or at least, make that impression), so maybe with enough input, there will be enough evidence to lynch one of them even toDay :p

But sally and Nerwen, to this point, seem quite genuine to me. Maybe sally... I don't know, maybe it's his style, the second paragraph of his post does not fit the whole frame of his post, or so it seems to me... we all know that saying "I am innocent" is the most ambivalent thing to be done... but whatever. Let's wait yet.

Heck, I don't have time now, have to leave. But I will be back in a few hours, finish my thoughts (mainly on Rikae, for I did not have chance to finish it all; and on Mith, about whom I'll surely say something), and then probably vote.

[Brinniel]

So far:

Nogrod- So far, most of him posts seem to be banter. Up until he criticises the "just dropping in" posts that have little substance. Could be a balrog hiding among harmless joking, but at this point it is hard to say.

Mithalwen- Taps in on the thought that we cannot discard anyone; non-participation could be a strategy. Not sure what to think...I alway have a hard time forming opinions of Mith, and usually when I do, I am wrong. :rolleyes:

Lhuna- Haven't really heard from her except for her comment on lovers.

Legate- Appears to be the most helpful poster so far. And I happen to agree with mostly what he says. At this point, he doesn't ring any alarms.

Might-

Well, I could just as well start thinking if Lhunardawen really means it when she says "we innocent miners" implying she's a good person or if she only wants to mislead us, or if it's reverse-reverse-reverse-psychology.
Okay, I find this quote here to be rather confusing. I don't want to simply disregard newbies, but I don't know Might's style, so I'm not sure whether this confusing behaviour is suspicious or not...

Volo- So far, he has given no real substance.

Nerwen- I do agree with her thoughts on Rikae. So far, she gives off an innocentish vibe.

Shasta- Comments on Rikae's self-vote. Otherwise, no real substance.

Sally- At first I was really confused with her cobbler comment because I thought she was talking about the cobbler role, but now I realise she was just creating a metaphor with dessert. Silly me. :rolleyes:

Anyways, I don't get any vibes from her just yet, but I would like to hear more from her.

Rikae- Oh, Rikae. I think her post was meant to cause controversy, and certainly it has. The possibilites:

-She is an innocent who either doesn't care much for her own survival, or she simply won't be able to return before deadline, therefore she chooses to accuse herself rather than point fingers at random players for no real reason.
-She is a cobbler and is trying to confuse us all (and hey, it's working).
-She is a balrog who thinks her self-vote will be viewed as too attention drawing and foolish to actually be suspicious and disregarded by most players.

Err...I'm not sure what to think. I really hope she comes back to explain herself.

So far, Gil, Mac, Kath, and Naria have yet to speak. I really hope they do turn up; we can't afford yet another game of no-shows.

It's way too late and I must go to bed now. Just a heads up: I have to vote 2 1/2 hours early. So if you have something to say, say it before then.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Huh? What? Nothing happened while I was away? Or are you all waiting for me to finish? How nice of you. :)

So, a few more thoughts. First, Rikae:

At first glance, her vote against herself appears to be either a joke or an act of self-sacrifice. But a single vote against her doesn't really endanger her very much. Let's look at its immediate effect– to divert suspicion from herself.
Hmm... it may be so. One could say, having in mind what you said, that she is really asking to be lynched. You want to be lynched? Okay, we'll give you that! If you are a cobbler, no harm done. If you are a balrog, here we go - we caught you! However, this point of view would be a little oblivious to the possibility that Rikae is innocent. Personally, I don't see an ordo Rikae likely to risk in such a manner in order to divert suspicion from herself (if anything, it would have to be a joke). However, since she did not comment on her behavior this far, one cannot drop in too much conclusions...

Second, Mithalwen. There is something on her behavior that seems a little bit... confusing to me (or is it: confused?). That sort of a jumpylooking-jokinglyaccusing-nothingsaying-deepvalleyblack-deepvalleyforested gloomyland, err, wait, that was something else... anyway; what was I saying, her posts seem, well yes, confusing. Though on second look, there is something of real value inside them (like what she says about some people not willing to lynch the ones who did not have the chance to speak), but nevertheless, it's confusing.

People like Shasta, Volo, and who knows who else was here and slips under my radar, is slipping under my radar, for there was hardly anything that caught my attention about them. Now if that itself could be taken as a sign of danger... I'm leaving this thought to others. Currently, I'm afraid that I don't have ANY high suspect, which is really bad.
Oh, now, really! I just noticed one person whom I totally left out. Lhuna is one of those I have not noticed at all. Interesting. *points up* What does that say, that either I am just oblivious or that she is so inconspicious... (maybe intentionally...)

But, good news at least, it looks like I'll be able to make it for the DL after all, even though it might be in a hurry, but still I believe something that will point me in some direction may show up meanwhile.

And where are those who did not post at all yet?

EDIT: just x-ed with Brinn. Shame, you destroyed the effect of my opening of the post, having two posts in line...

[Macalaure]

I don't have much time right now, but here are a few thoughts.


Nogrod is a little too happy for my liking. He ridiculously over-analyses the first 10 posts, making it look like a parody of "looking helpful while not being helpful". I can see his traffic-jam argument, but something about him doesn't entirely sit right with me - at least this early. We'll see.


I'm tempted to call "cobbler" on Rikae, but I can't help but to think she would play that role differently, staying calm and waiting to make a devastating impact late in the game. Rikae, my dear, you leave me confused.
Good points about her by Nerwen and Legate.


The Might says little and then snaps at the first little suspicion against him. Though it's not very helpful, it feels rather innocent.

Brinn starts by saying nothing and only agreeing. She then snaps at the first criticism, too. In her case, it seems less innocent than in TM's. Her later thoughts appear much better, though.


There's no use throwing non-random suspicions if a lot still have not spoken up

There isn't? :rolleyes:

[Kath]

I'm here, but I won't be for long I'm afraid. I've got to get on a train in about an hour and then I won't be able to get on a computer before the deadline. It's going to mean a very early vote though, so time to look at what's been going on.

Noggie ~ I'm tempted to try and kill him off already just to keep the number of pages down! Has posted nothing while posting a lot. Keeps calling for people to talk which, yeah, great, but we know that and after the third post asking for chat you don't really need to do it again. Plus, that post that concluded everyone he'd looked at was a possible balrog? I don't know, maybe it's just his playing style this game, but it's making me suspicious.

Mith ~ Being a little down in the dumps, but then the numbers often look bad from the start.

Legate ~ The xyzzy comment, am I missing something? Seems to have the opposite opinion of Noggie to me, but then so do most people usually. He is being a bit pedantic about Rikae though. 9 games is very close to 10. Maybe there was a miscount, or he missed a junior game. It just feels like suspecting for the sake of suspecting.

The Might ~ Has definitely picked up 'how to be confusing' from someone. I'd say Nilp but it looks like Rikae it the one who has taken advice from him!

Brinn ~ I'm liking her posts. Straightforward and not worrying a point to death.

Lhuna ~ I think we might be wise to follow Lhuna's advice on lovers. She's been one so many times she probably does know how to deal with them! Of course, she knows how to deal with them from the inside so we might actually want to do the opposite of whatever she says!

Rikae ~ Well, as I said, someone's been taking lessons from Nilp! Are you one who dislikes Day 1's or did you just have no time and decide to vote for yourself because so few people had spoken?

Nerwen ~ Not sure I understand her. She said Rikae voting for herself was a way to divert suspicion, and then asks us to look at others reactions as proof of that. Yet if we look at Brinn's reaction in particular there is definitely no diverting of suspicion there, more the opposite. I would actually say it was an attempt to divert suspicion from other people if there's anything sinister at all. Perhaps Rikae is the cobbler? Unlikely to draw attention to herself so early on though.

Sally ~ Had the thought about Rikae being the cobbler too. But also says 'oh yes, I'm an innocent' right from the start, which just immediately makes me suspect her.

Shasta ~ Mentions Rikae's vote.

Volo ~ Pops up with an excuse for not being here but adds nothing constructive.

Mac ~ Well, I have some support for my suspicion of Noggie at least. His points seem pretty well made.

We have, what, three newbies this game? The Might, Sally and Nerwen. Unless one of them actually comes out and says 'I'm a balrog, please lynch me' I'm pretty much going to ignore them in terms of possible lynchees for toDay at least because I've been killed first Day as a newbie and it sucks.

Otherwise my suspects seem to consist of Noggie, Legate and very possibly Lhuna. Ignore the lovers she says, perhaps too bold for someone who actually is one, but it's still worth looking at.

Now, since I really do have to go and he is my top suspect:

++NOGGIE

[Nerwen]

I don't have much time right now, but here are a few thoughts.

I'm tempted to call "cobbler" on Rikae, but I can't help but to think she would play that role differently, staying calm and waiting to make a devastating impact late in the game. Rikae, my dear, you leave me confused.

Well, I don't really know any of you people yet, but I agree that it doesn't make sense for the cobbler to try and get lynched at this point.

On the other hand, if she merely wants to get us hopelessly confused... it's working.

[Mithalwen]

Very quick post ..... Either Nog is over analysing or suspicious ..... I am not that calculating believe me ... I just believe one should particiapate as much as possible and in the early hours of the game stating ther only thing to talk about was the basic situation and possibilities (apart to flippant refs to those who have bamboozled me in the past). Given the non retractable votes I thought it particulary important to remind of a few possibilities...

RIkae -Cobbler? crazy or genius? discuss....

[Nogrod]

Oh Kath... you're on it again. :(

I've only had time to skim through the posting toDay and need to attend a meeting in half an hour. I will be back with hopefully more elaborate points then for the last couple of hours of the Day and with some actual time to do something.

This far I'm feeling pretty good about Brinn and Nerwen. They both have made good points and contributed to important questions. Same could be said of Legate as well, but with him I would be a step more cautious.

Shasta and Volo I'm a bit disappointed about this far but I hope they will straighten their backs and get into the fray yet toDay.

Of those posted I'm somewhat worried over Rikae, Mith and Lhuna, possibly Sally too.

With Rikae it's pretty clear she's no gifted so in a sense we can lynch her with no fear of losing an important aiding role to us. But Rikae can be an important aid as a player when the game gets going. So I'm a bit reluctant to vote her on Day1.

Mith I talked about earlier and must say I still have the same points that bother me. But that's somewhat weak in any case.

Lhuna just feels foul. I don't know why in any analytical measures. Maybe it's because she has once already tricked me by being just like she is now - going under radar as a sensible person and then on the right moment attacking ruthlessly. I may counting too much on my previous experiences though.

Sally's way of discussing Rikae can easily be read as a balrog-defence of another balrog. Also her point that she is "quite certain" about her innocense sounds odd indeed. But that's not much I admit.

Sorry. Have to go now. I'll be back.

[Volo]

Nogrod is a little too happy for my liking. He ridiculously over-analyses the first 10 posts, making it look like a parody of "looking helpful while not being helpful". I can see his traffic-jam argument, but something about him doesn't entirely sit right with me - at least this early. We'll see.
Nogrod is a bit too happy, but that seems normal. I don't think he there is anything alarming in his actions -exept for the promise:
Well I'm around but there seems to be quite a little to pay heed to. I'll try anyhow. Just a moment.
After which he writes a joke analysis that I wouldn't call contributing.

Volo ~ Pops up with an excuse for not being here but adds nothing constructive.I thought of posting that in the admin-thread, but decided to put it here as I quoted Legate.

With Rikae it's pretty clear she's no gifted so in a sense we can lynch her with no fear of losing an important aiding role to us. But Rikae can be an important aid as a player when the game gets going. So I'm a bit reluctant to vote her on Day1. Yeah, no way is she gifted. She might be a cobbler, though it feels more like a trick of an ordo. Good that she did that on Day1 and not later on when time and thought really is precious.

I'll try posting more in an hour or so, after I get home.

[Macalaure]

I think there is quite a bit which can be seen from the way people deal with Rikae.

There's the baffled ones, like TM, Shasta, Sally, Kath.

There's the analysers, like Legate, Brinniel, and Nerwen.

Their reactions are the common ones and, I think, rather unsuspicious.

Then there's Nogrod and Volo. I don't like the argument that Rikae is in no way gifted. I don't think we can be entirely sure. The argument also has an aftertaste of "She's not gifted, so when in doubt, we can lynch her without much of a loss." Even though they both denies this, it's in there nevertheless. I'm not saying Rikae is innocent, by no means, but by talking like this we're running in danger of making her an easy target for convenient throwaway-votes from which we cannot deduce anything tomorrow.

I'm also a wary of Mith, who mainly points out a just how confusing Rikae is, while (yet) contributing little to de-confuse. One could get the idea she urge us to discuss her so we won't get to discuss the more important matter of who the balrogs are. Nerwen pointed out her confusion once too often, too.

[Volo]

"She's not gifted, so when in doubt, we can lynch her without much of a loss."
More of "Don't kill her at Night"... :rolleyes: So to be honest, I don't see why a Gifted wouldn't bluff like that, if an ordo would.

I am somewhat suspicious of this Mac-person (Though last time I did so, I was wrong...)

Nerwen on the other hand feels the most innocent.

Just gut-feeling.

[Nogrod]

I don't like the argument that Rikae is in no way gifted. I don't think we can be entirely sure. The argument also has an aftertaste of "She's not gifted, so when in doubt, we can lynch her without much of a loss." Even though they both denies this, it's in there nevertheless. I'm not saying Rikae is innocent, by no means, but by talking like this we're running in danger of making her an easy target for convenient throwaway-votes from which we cannot deduce anything tomorrow.One cannot be sure about anything practically. Your point looks like a well considered one. And as I said, I'm reluctant to vote for Rikae toDay anyway. If innocent, she can be of great help to us and that overweights my possible suspicions about her self-vote toDay (at least for the time being).

But.

Most of us have already said something on the subject and thence changing one's point of view to make a "safe" vote would be looked carefully toMorrow if Rikae would be lynched and turns out innocent. So not so safe after all. Also: everytime people make points about others there's a chance that some vile creatures might go and hide behind that reasoning to vote "safe". So I'm not sure about the validity of that argument.

Now Mac may have his personal reasons to be the gallant knight rescuing his maiden. And that's just sweet. I hope there are no other darker reasons behind that.

[Nogrod]

Houston, we have a problem!

What I don't like right now is that we have basically no candidates for lynching and it is 2½ hours to the deadline. Rikae has been suspected, I've received a vote (Kath's remarkably fishy one... I'll explain this thought in my next post) and Mith has been suspected as well by a few.

We'd need two-four believable candidates so that the choices people make would leave some tracks as there would be an actual and meaningful choice involved.

If we just run rampant at the last hour it easily leads to a confusing band-waggoning which will leave us absolutely trackless toMorrow.

Also: no sight of Gil or Naria... As always I'd rather vote for someone who's not going to play rather than vote a person who actually plays unless there are good grounds on voting certain person of course.

[Macalaure]

Most of us have already said something on the subject and thence changing one's point of view to make a "safe" vote would be looked carefully toMorrow if Rikae would be lynched and turns out innocent.

Maybe. So far, most people who mentioned Rikae (including me) said neither that she's innocent nor that she's evil. Right now (for a good reason, because there's nothing else to say) most are sitting on fences, and could easily justify a vote for her. Discussing (un-)giftedness in such a situation is suspicious, I think.

Now Mac may have his personal reasons to be the gallant knight rescuing his maiden.I did not defend her, or at least I didn't intend to. Note that I did not comment on the reasons anybody found her suspicious or not. All I said was that the ways some people commented on Rikae were telling. Also, I can't find anything else to go after at this point. :rolleyes:

[Brinniel]

Then there's Nogrod and Volo. I don't like the argument that Rikae is in no way gifted. I don't think we can be entirely sure. The argument also has an aftertaste of "She's not gifted, so when in doubt, we can lynch her without much of a loss." Even though they both denies this, it's in there nevertheless. I'm not saying Rikae is innocent, by no means, but by talking like this we're running in danger of making her an easy target for convenient throwaway-votes from which we cannot deduce anything tomorrow.
I do have to disagree with this. I really doubt Rikae is a gifted; why would she want to confuse the village when she is so important to them? Of course, this doesn't make an ordinary Rikae expendable. No ordinaries are expendable. But we're not even sure Rikae is an ordinary innocent.

I have to go to class. For awhile I was thinking about taking the laptop with me, but even then I probably couldn't post without my professor noticing I wasn't paying attention. I get out 15 minutes before deadline, so there is a possibility I'll be back before deadline, but that's a bit risky. So it's best I vote early:

++Rikae

I'm not entirely confident, but she is the most suspicious right now. If we wait until Day 2, a balrog Rikae could come back and say she did it because she didn't have time and didn't have any suspects, sounding entirely innocent all of sudden. I'm not sure I want to risk that.

Nogrod is my second-choice suspect mainly for his earlier posts, but there really isn't enough evidence to back up my suspicions at the moment.

[Nogrod]

I'm a bit worried about Kath and here are my reasons for it. Nb. it's not the fact that she voted me but because of the way she did it.

Here's Kath's "argument" in full:
Noggie ~ I'm tempted to try and kill him off already just to keep the number of pages down! Has posted nothing while posting a lot. Keeps calling for people to talk which, yeah, great, but we know that and after the third post asking for chat you don't really need to do it again. Plus, that post that concluded everyone he'd looked at was a possible balrog? I don't know, maybe it's just his playing style this game, but it's making me suspicious.
1. The argument of posting a lot. Sham in two ways. Firstly at that time I had posted quite moderately. Secondly she should know as a veteran to these games that the villages become absolutely boring after a few days if all the more active people are lynched & killed early on. And what's better place for baddies to be than a silent village? And if it was a joke? Joking that way and leading it to a vote is a bit too risky on Day1 for anyone actually interested about the fate of the innocents.

2. Posting nothing while posting a lot -argument. Just look what had been posted overall at the time I was online last night (RL). There wasn't much to say at that time (my last was post #16). So pretty ridiculous argument indeed. And if this wouldn't be a game I might be a bit insulted when someone says that my posting is noncommittal or unfruitful or not saying anything... :) But yeah, it's a game so no problem there.

3. Seeing balrogs everywhere -argument. An innocent needs to see balrogs everywhere. Only by looking at the possible balrogs around oneself can one find hints about there actually being one there. It's only the balrogs who don't need to see possible enemies everywhere as they know where they are unlike us. Kath knows this very well.

4. The argument of the playting style. Which basically is no argument on anything.

So why do I wish to bring all this forwards? Because all of Kath's "arguments" are sham and she is experienced enough to know it. That means she has other motives to get rid of me in this game. Fabricating arguments like this to affect the village is most fishy indeed. Also I'm reading a malicious intent behind her words (especially points 1. & 3.).

[Gil-Galad]

I do have to disagree with this. I really doubt Rikae is a gifted; why would she want to confuse the village when she is so important to them? Of course, this doesn't make an ordinary Rikae expendable. No ordinaries are expendable. But we're not even sure Rikae is an ordinary innocent.

Hmm... we all know the roles of Ordinary Civilians before we even begun this madness and for stating that out loud seems like someone trying to be on the nice side of ordinaries... congrats Brinniel you just made my suspect list!

Kath doesn't strike me as anything right now... a very stupid WereBalrog move if she was it by striking Nogrod right away...i feel we let her live for today, if she does this burst of randomness again tomorrow then i will have no guilt voting her mainly as a nuisance.

But for my vote, if Rikae really wants to commit suicide then sure for nobody else has any sufficent misgivings towards them.


Oh and Brinniel is on my list not for voting Rikae but for taking advantage of that if Rikae indeed turns to be an innocent, then Brinniel can play off that again...

++Rikae

[Nogrod]

I did not defend her, or at least I didn't intend to. That happens... but you must admit your post ends up saying that we should not vote for Rikae as that would be voting without leaving a trace... :)

All I said was that the ways some people commented on Rikae were telling.You're right in doing that and it's a good viewpoint but you should also note that most of the people do not wish to restate things some others have already pointed out. It would be a boring read indeed if everyone always told all they thought even if others had stated that already (I know I'm guilty of this sometimes but I have tried to avoid it lately). So when making this kind of comparisons one would need to take account also of when people have posted their points and to see which points had already been made a few times before.


I'm a bit weary of Gil's last post. I don't seem to understand any of his arguments or his vote. So is he just confused - or am I confused - or is there something else in there as well? That needs to be thought.

[Rikae]

The quality of nothing hath not such need to hide itself.
Nothing will come from nothing, Brinniel, and a cobbler is not nothing, but rather a tasty half-baked dessert.
I have always felt that those who declare themselves innocent are newbies, or guilty, though this does not mean that newbies are not guilty. Some newbies may seem less new than they seem; and yet post too much of the obvious. If I was not a balrog, I would suspect such.
Macalaure is too kind - but that is only because he is the cobbler-lover. Do not listen to him.
Legate especially should not listen to all he hears, and can say what he likes about what he knows no more of than he does of pies. If death at night, at the hands of baddies, is lynching, then I admit was lynched in WW XXX.
Those who bark up the wrong tree are often of the canine variety, but we have balrogs here, so I don't know... I don't know.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose... :) ... good night, sweet ladies, goodnight.

EDIT - X'd with Brinn, Nog, Mac, Gil & Nog (I think that's all)

[Volo]

Umm... Gil, you're putting yourself into the situation you're saying that Brinniel is in.

If Rikae is Innocent, you'll be able to attack Brinniel with the explanation you just gave us.

Looks pretty Balrogish to me.


I don't agree about Kath, Nogrod. She gives me the same vibes as in my first game, modded by Glirdan, where she was an ordo. I won't vote for her toDay.

[Volo]

Xd with Nogrod and Rikae there.

What is that all about, Rikae?? If you have a role that leads you to victory by being lynched the first, I think you'll achieve your goal. Really, what was that about??

++Rikae

[Nogrod]

An hour and a quarter to go.

Rikae -> Rikae
Kath -> Nogrod
Brinniel -> Rikae
Gil -> Rikae (Rikae3, Nogrod1)
Volo -> Rikae (Rikae4, Nogrod1)

Naria has yet to enter the stage. It's been a long time she has been with us and it would be sad to lose her immediately but then again if she won't play then it wouldn't be the worst choice we can make.

Shasta posted basically nothing but I have promised him not to vote him on Day1 in this game as he has been lynched quite a few times in a row on D1 lately. I'll stick to my word here.

I will not vote for Legate or Nerwen because of their reasonableness and good feeling they arouse in me at this stage. Just a while ago I would have included Brinn to make a trio but now I'm not so sure any more. Something broke the spell with her last post. Macalaure probably won't receive my vote either toDay. He's too good to be lost on some whimsy Day1 speculation.

I'm very reluctant to vote for Sally or The Might as like Kath said, lynched on Day1 in the first game you're in just sucks.

Volo I see as a bit weird but then that's what I usually get from his Day1 posting.

That leaves as my candidates for voting: Kath, Mith, Lhuna, Rikae, Gil

If I'd have to vote right now and to do it following my thoughts only it would probably be Kath.

Gil's post was somewhat fishy and strange. He's probably my candidate number two right now.

Rikae seems to play it her own way right now. It's hard to say whether she's just having fun or whether she's playing a very bold baddie - which is indeed possible. (btw. why do you Mac think that I'm too happy so that you might suspect me but Rikae doesn't raise those same thoughts? :p)

Of Mith and Lhuna I'm more unsure about. There's not much more than some bad vibes I get from them (okay a few possible points on Mith but I'd hesitate to act on them at the moment)

I do hope you others would play your cards more openly as well. A last minute frenzy seldomly results in anything good for the villagers.

EDIT: corrected the tally to include Volo's vote

[The Might]

Nice to see that I'm confusing you all right now, though I must onestly say I didn't really intend to.

Well, it seems that except Rikae's strange decision nothing else happened that could really make you think someone is a balrog or not. So I must admit, making the vote isn't easy, but I'll just follow my Gondolindrim instinct and vote

++Nogrod

[Mithalwen]

::
I'm also a wary of Mith, who mainly points out a just how confusing Rikae is, while (yet) contributing little to de-confuse. One could get the idea she urge us to discuss her so we won't get to discuss the more important matter of who the balrogs are. Nerwen pointed out her confusion once too often, too.


Err - I think looking at Rikae was a fair p[oint in the circs ..I did only have a few minutes ... she is clearly cobblerish at best but a cobbler counts as an ordo for the village so it is not in our interests to kill her - however if she is distracting I suggest we each put her on the ignore list for the duration of the game. However behav ing thus could be a cover for a wolf or... anyway I must finish catching up since time is pressing ..and some of us have been working today.... :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

I'm afraid we are having a contest with two innocents going on... I don't know about Rikae but as I've said I'm not very comfortable with lynching her as we'd have better candidates out there.

And we're doing the classical mistake of lazily voting for the easy targets ie. those who have talked / those who have been talked about. With possibly the balrogs giving the boost at the right moments.

Well all those alive should think of these toMorrow. And the innocents should take a look on the mirror...

I'd go for Kath. With her I think we might have a go for a balrog - or at least the cobbler. Just check my post #43 for some points I think will actually hold. She clearly has no arguments and even jokes about them and still votes. She's clever enough to know what she is doing. Thence my suspicions for it doesn't look like action from someone who has the well-being of the village in her sight.

Or Gil then? His post fills all the requirements of jumping on the train already running with some totally baffling arguments. And if he's innocent and acts like that (looks at the bandwagon moving and jumps along) he's as dangerous to the village as the balrogs during the Day. What I mean is I'd risk Gil for Rikae thinking of the Days to come.

The silent balrogs seem to have won the Day once again which is a pity indeed.

[Nerwen]

Look, Rikae, I wasn't going to do anything until you'd had a chance to speak for yourself. Now that you have... I've really very little idea what you are or what you're trying to achieve.

You're certainly not making any effort to get your neck out of the noose. Either you're treating the whole thing as a joke, or you think you're done for anyway so there's no point resisting, or you really are deliberately trying to get lynched.

I can't say that you or anyone else has done anything that definitely says "balrog" to me– but time is running out. In the absence of a better candidate–

++Rikae

[Mithalwen]

I really don't like Nogrod using me as his human shield and trying to create an illusion mass of suspicion about me when there has been very little save his. Attack the best form of defence methinks... And he is doing that pseudo helpful thing... .my guess is he could well be a gung-ho wolf becaus of his possible major absence later in the game.

Kath - I don't think any of the new players have done anything to deserve a vote - in fact they have spoken intelligently and reasonably.

I am tempted to keep Rikae for the entertainment value .... we can always deal with her later .....

[Nogrod]

Rikae -> Rikae
Kath -> Nogrod
Brinniel -> Rikae
Gil -> Rikae (Rikae3, Nogrod1)
Volo -> Rikae (Rikae4, Nogrod1)
The Might -> Nogrod (Rikae 4, Nogrod2)
Nerwen -> Rikae (Rikae5, Nogrod2)

Not voted yet: Legate, Lhuna, Mac, Mith, Naria, Nogrod, Sally, Shasta

Of these Naria is a questionmark.

But that would leave still seven votes to come. With seven votes we can change the situation.

Speak up people. Don't just pop in with a vote.

I'd encourage everyone to take a close look toMorrow at those who just popped in and voted. That betrays an attitude that says "I'm actually not interested about our chances but wish to wash my hands from it". A balrog would think like that.

[Mithalwen]

I find Gil's criticism of Kath a bit suspicious... I know to my cost that a WereKath is nigh on incapapble of putting a paw wrong:(

[Nogrod]

So is it just you and me once again around Mith? Looks pretty familiar...

I really don't like Nogrod using me as his human shield and trying to create an illusion mass of suspicion about me when there has been very little save his.That's basically not true but you're still reading a bit too much on this. Our foremost goal is to get either a balrog toDay or at least not to weaken our chances in Days to come. That's why I've not followed my initial suspicions on you any further as they're weak indeed (which I have confessed a couple of times already).

And he is doing that pseudo helpful thing...Let's make a frank comparison, shall we? :)

In case you end up following these non-arguments and lynch me I better start preparing something like a testament for toMorrow that will be the only document from toDay you can trust... :(
(Yeah, I may be wrong like anyone else but you will know then there is no malice behind it.)

[Mithalwen]

And really dashing in and voting for Rikae is a total cop out vote ....

I see Nogrod is again asking for a third candidate but does not get the ball rolling... the last time he did that I recall he was a wolf (ok so was I but I was still right ;) )*



*NB for Newcomers - SpM's game had two opposing teams of wolves....

[Mithalwen]

[QUOTE=Nogrod;535904]
That's basically not true but you're still reading a bit too much on this. Our foremost goal is to get either a balrog toDay or at least not to weaken our chances in Days to come. That's why I've not followed my initial suspicions on you any further as they're weak indeed (which I have confessed a couple of times already).

So why repeat them time and time again? To start a bandwaggon against me? Getting me lynched will not help the village ....it really is unreasonably to grumble that noone talks and then attacking anyone who talks despite material as suspicious...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay folks, with the little time that remains and the fact that I was able to just skim through the posts that appeared since my last visit, I'll probably leave long analyses for the next day - providing that I'm here toMorrow, of course.

Only a few words about Rikae. If anything seemed fishy from the posts around her, then it was Mac's reaction. I don't think he defended her at all, as anyway he himself said. But that reaction had sort of negative-tone against those who commented around her. I indeed understood Volo's words as "Don't kill her at night", as he put it later, and there are things that a gentleman just does not speak about - that is, like playing with the idea that she's a gifted. Which was started by Mac, not Volo, from my point of view - if I thought that Rikae could be a gifted, I'd say exactly what Volo did. Nevertheless, Rikae's behavior is still very strange (her answer is not an answer at all), so it just looks that she's a cobbler or whatever kind of madness. So probably I'm going to vote for her - with hope that we get rid of a cobbler by this.

Swiftly concerning some others. Kath was a little bit jumpy to my liking. But given that there's only one post from her, AND with a vote, which really seems that she was in a hurry, I'm not going to vote her toDay, but will check on her toMorrow. Another slightly suspicious person to me is Mac, whom I already mentioned (see above).
I don't see anything much suspicious on Nogrod this far (however he is not an easy bit, so...).
And also I could note that The Might's last appearance makes the impression of the "cloak and dagger"-type person. I mean, he appears,says nothing and stabs. But okay, let's quit this and wait for better time.

Guess I x-ed with quite some people and maybe even votes, but whatever...

[Nogrod]

I see Nogrod is again asking for a third candidate but does not get the ball rolling...I may need that vote to save myself if things go really bad for I know I'm innocent and then it's better to try Rikae instead if I can do it.

So why repeat them time and time again? To start a bandwaggon against me? Getting me lynched will not help the village Are we speaking the same language? I've said it over and over again that I have no reason to try to lynch you as things stand right now. I might have those thoughts during the first part of the Day but not so much any more... unlessl you continue in this manner... :confused:

[Rikae]

All right, I suppose I owe it to the village to say something somewhat straight.
I was just having a little fun. Here you go again, bandwaggoning on day one against the most obvious person. When will you people learn? Going for the person who looks most odd is almost always a mistake; it also tends to flatten the game.
I suspect Nerwen. I also somewhat suspect Macalaure; he's too nice. That said, an innocent Nogrod is more valuable than I am, and he looks innocent to me - so you should probably lynch me anyway.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmm... interesting proposal, Nogrod, about another lynchee. But, I'm afraid, that there will be hard time choosing which one. Out of my suspects, for example, I'd feel the most now to vote Mac, but even if I did, I doubt there would have been enough votes for him, as he is certainly not going to vote himself... Not to say that I would, because my suspicion on him is based just on the last events, maybe I will look at him totally differently when I have time to read all his posts in quiet and calm state.

One more thing concerning Rikae, or another reason to vote her. I am a little bit afraid that if she remains an enigma and remains alive, or even worse, if she's a cobbler and remains alive, she will only make the situation troublesome as she will spread our forces, so to say. We will still have this "What is she? Is she a cobbler?" back in our minds, and we'll spend a large part of discussion about that. Of course getting a balrog on the first day would be nice, and I am somewhat reluctant to think that she is one, but if she is a cobbler, then on the first day, it's in fact still quite a success, or at least small compensation for not catching a balrog.

[Mithalwen]

At least 3 mentions in the past couple of hours.... it is a drip effect .....good wolf tactics....

But Gil is as suspicious as ever and it is very seldom a bad move to resolve the perrenial gil problem early.,.but I don't think that is a goer...

Rikae is a very bold player ..... so bold I wonder if there isn't something special going on - we have not had full disclosure ..so if it is her or you Nogrod,it will be you...

[Mithalwen]

Cross post .... with Rikae and Legate ........ hmm

[Mithalwen]

Legate ..if Rikae was to survive the Seer would probably choose her to dream of.. Rikae is right ther has been a lot of laziness today.. classic Day 1

[Mithalwen]

Well to late to get a swing vote for Gil so

++ Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Category 1.

Kath is the most suspicious to me. I've told you why already.

Mith also gives me bad vibes again. She may not be a balrog but her nervousness and one-track mindedness at the last moments talk on behalf of themselves. Watch out!

Mac I find a hard one to crack once again. I'd definitively have my eyes on him toMorrow. He's kind of around and gets involved but there's something fishy in there I can't formulate right now - and don't have time to go back to his posts.

Category 2.

Brinn's last addendum about me being her suspicion number two looks pretty bad as well as it was softened (based only on the early posting) but still voiced in a situation it was clear I might turn to be a real contender to be lynched. So why if not because she thought it good to see me on the lynchline (like a balrog would probably love to see as they know I'm not one of them)?

Lhuna I still feel bad about but that's only a feeling. Nothing more.

The Might and Volo just popped in to vote. I'd look after them as well.

Cat. 3.

Gil probably is more confused than guilty even if you never know.

And time's out...

[Nogrod]

Rikae is right ther has been a lot of laziness today.. classic Day 1Absolutely. And you think the best option is to vote for the least lazy then? :p

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmm... Rikae, if you are innocent, you took it from the wrong end, maybe. I think we are going to learn soon. But on one thing I agree with you, about the flattening of the game. But unfortunately, it looks now that the state of the village is that questions about you won't give us rest until you are dead, if I say it very nastily.

Legate ..if Rikae was to survive the Seer would probably choose her to dream of.. Rikae is right ther has been a lot of laziness today.. classic Day 1
Which is another waste. Of course the Seer won't come in front of the village and say "Rikae is this and this", because he will reveal himself. Therefore, the uncertainity would last.

So it's her or Nogrod definitively? It's clearer then...

++Rikae

[Mithalwen]

Not nervous... just irritated by spin and economy with the facts... frankly I have so much on getting lynched would make my life easier but I am an ordo so shall endeavour to stay alive ...:cool:

[Rikae]

Also, Legate... "lied" about me. I was killed by baddies in WW XXX.

[Macalaure]

I thought I'd be back sooner, but now I'm in a hurry.


leaning suspicious
Gil
Nogrod

confused about
Legate
Mith
Volo

leaning unsuspicious
Brinniel
Kath
Nerwen
Rikae
TM

unknown
Lhuna
Naria
Sally
Shasta


Nogrod is an option, but lynching Nogrod on Day One with little evidence? But Gil is a shot into the dark...

But then, there's no real option anymore but Rikae and Nogrod.

++Nogrod

[Nogrod]

++ Rikae

That's so sad it lead to this as I don't think she is a balrog (a cobbler possibly but probably not even that).

I was just having a little fun. Here you go again, bandwaggoning on day one against the most obvious person. When will you people learn? Going for the person who looks most odd is almost always a mistake; it also tends to flatten the game.READ THIS CLOSELY!

But I know myself unlike Rikae...

[Mithalwen]

Which is another waste. Of course the Seer won't come in front of the village and say "Rikae is this and this", because he will reveal himself. Therefore, the uncertainity would last.

[/B]


I never said they would unless at dire need but a skilled seer can usually leave clues.. even if only in hindsight...

Your argument doesn't work for me...

[Rikae]

By flattening I mean everyone cowers in a corner and does what's safe; the evil most of all... as you see.

[Thinlómien]

Stop discussing. Rikae is dead. Narration to come.

[Nogrod]

By flattening I mean everyone cowers in a corner and does what's safe; the evil most of all... as you see.Seconded indeed!

[satansaloser2005]

My apologies for not posting or voting. The college's network died about 10pm last night and I was unable to post until now. It does however appear that the day's lynching has occured, so I will now retreat back into my little cavern without discussion of the day's events.

[Thinlómien]

Ever since Rikae had had the terrible dream of Dr. Evil holding basketball games in a German university, she had known she would die soon. Thus, when Nogrod insisted the bad guys must remain on the right, she remained. ”I wholeheartedly suggest that we lynch Rikae. She has played ten games over the past year and has never been lyn...”
”Yes, she was! She's lying, she was lynched in WW XXX!” Legate interrupted.
”No, I wasn't.”
”Yes, you were.”
”No, I wasn't.”
”Yes, you were.”
”No.”
”Yes.”
”No.”
”Yes.”
”Look, this is not an argument, this is just a contradiction”, Rikae said, frustrated.
”No it isn't.”
”Yes it is.”

”Stop!” shouted thirteen voices in unison.

”Let's lynch Rikae”, suggested Nogrod.
”Let's lynch Nogrod”, suggested Kath.

”I think we should put them in a cobbler-eating contest”, Sally said.
”What? Isn't Rikae the cobbler? Are you saying they should eat Rikae?” Nerwen asked, confused.
”Cobbler is a pie”, Legate explained.
”No, it isn't”, Rikae said sourly.
”Yes, it is.”
”No, it isn't.”
”Yes, it is.”

Before Rikae could protest, Brinniel smashed a cobbler at her face. ”Eat it”, she suggested sweetly. ”And Nogrod too”, Kath insisted. So Rikae and Nogrod started eating cobblers. When they both had eaten twenty or so cobblers, Nogrod sighed. ”I can't eat any more of them. Let's call it a draw?”

But Rikae didn't hear anything, she was so enthusiastically eating the cobblers. She grew bigger and bigger and showed no sign of stopping.

”Shouldn't we stop her?” Mith asked, horrified.
”Nah, didn't we want to kill her anyway?” Volo asked, scratching his jaw.

”Rikae, no!” Mac shouted, but he was too late. Rikae, who now filled the whole cave from floor to roof, popped in a loud bang. When the pieces of Rikae landed on the stony ground alongside with the thousand crumbs of cobbler, they realised she was not a werebalrog, and the only cobblers they could identify were those eaten by Rikae and Nogrod.

There was a shocked silence. Then The Might opened his mouth. ”But the question remains...who is it?"

~*~

Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - killed by a wingless balrog on Night1
Rikae (ordo) - ate too many cobblers on Day1

Living
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lhunardawen
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Naria
Nerwen
Nogrod
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
The Might
Volo


Night2 begins. Lovers and wolves, you may PM. Seer, ranger and wolves, send me your picks. Hunter, you may do that also.

[Thinlómien]

"Maeglin..." a sweet voice called in the darkness.
"Is it you, my love? Have you come to see me again, Idril?" Maeglin (better known as Volo) asked.
"Of course it's me. Come here."
Hearing his beloved's call, Volo hastened towards the voice. "It was dangerous for you to come to see me", he rebuked his lover who remained unseen in the shadows.
"Incorrect. It was dangerous for you to come to see me. Fatal, even", the voice said, not so sweet anymore. Volo blinked his eyes and instead of his sweet Idril, he saw three balrogs before him.
"Will you come to have a night flight, darling?" the Balrog with Swing mocked and all the three balrogs burst laughing.

The Balrog who Sings picked Volo up and the balrogs did fly (NOTE: whether I mean some kind of floating with wings or escaping, you readers may decide according to your beliefs) out of the cave by a secret route. They started circling around the three-peaked mountain.

"Isn't it a beautiful night?" the Balrog with Swing asked in a pretty voice.
Before Volo could reply, the Balrog with Bling cut in: "Do balrogs have wings?"
"You seem to have", Volo replied, feeling a bit safer.
"Oh, a pity, I'm going to drop you anyway", the Balrog who Sings said and let go of Volo. Screaming, he fell to the abyss. The Balrog who Sings started singing:

"When there's a smile in your heart
There's no better time to start
It's a very simple plan
You can do what the birdies can
At least it's worth a try

You can fly! You can fly!
You can fly! You can fly!"

But unfortunately Volo couldn't fly and his body smote the mountainside thrice before it could not be seen any longer. The balrogs left the crime scene, still whistling the merry tune.

~*~

"Idril, my love, what are you doing here?" Tuor asked when he found her kneeling by the great chasm and weeping.
"Go away", she said.
"What's wrong, my love?", Tuor asked, baffled and tried to embrace her.
"I said go away!" Idril shouted, rebuffing him, "Maeglin is dead. I saw them take him and cast him to the chasm."
"Maeglin? I'm sorry, love. But you never really liked him, did you?"
"You blind fool. I loved him. At least as much as I ever loved you."
"You treacherous liar! He was your cousin! That's disgusting!" he roared. "Sika!" he cursed in the ancient language of men. "You never actually loved me, did you? You loved him all these years. Everything there was between us was merely a fraud. I don't know what I'm doing here anymore. I'm going. You said 'go away' and I'll take that advice. Maybe I'll go to the place where only Men can go, you may follow your beloved Maeglin to Mandos." He turned to leave, but Idril fell on his neck, weeping.
"Please! Forgive me! I'm just a weak woman whose heart has been torn into two parts! And if you were to abandon me or die, it would be my end also."
Tuor looked into her eyes and saw but grief and honesty in there.
"Forgive me", she whispered.
"Nothing can come between us anymore."

~*~

When the Day dawned, the miners couldn't find Volo anywhere. There were no signs of fighting in the place where Volo had been sleeping – all Volo’s things were in their places, his bed looked unslept. On a flat rock were the remnants of a single candle that had seemingly gone out during the night.
“Looks almost like he has decided to leave willingly.”
“Did he know of some secret pathway out?”
“But why would he have left without us?”
“Or left all his things here? He has taken nothing with him.”

“Hey, what’s this?”
“Has he been baking something, eh?”

Volo’s little black notebook was lying on the rock, opened. On the page was a recipe written with clear handwriting:

The best cobbler ever

Take one Eöl & one Aredhel and blend them. Brood in a dark forest until ready.

The villagers looked at each other and knew that wherever Volo was now, he was the cobbler.

~*~

Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - killed by a wingless balrog on Night1
Rikae (ordo) - ate too many cobblers on Day1
Volo (Maeglin the Cobbler Lover) - dropped by a winged balrog on Night2

Living
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lhunardawen
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Naria
Nerwen
Nogrod
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
The Might


Day2 begins. Feel free to discuss, dear citizens.

[Nogrod]

Even if it's bad for our numbers I'm somewhat happy that we lost the cobbler. After all it was the best possible outcome after the possibility of the ranger denying the kill (or the hunter taking one of them with her/him).

So it's a triangle-story then and the third part only dies after both her lovers are dead or something... but as someone (Lhuna?) said already yesterDay we probably shouldn't bother our minds too much with this lover thing unless something dramatic is revealed.

That's because we still have all the three balrogs around with us. It would be a fine Day to start picking them up. So let's do it toDay.

[Kath]

Just popping in quickly. I'm off out in about 5 minutes so ...

The Cobbler is dead and that's good. Extra lovers is not so good. Still, on this one I do agree with Noggie, it's the Balrogs we need to concentrate on. We actually got lucky last Night, they took out someone that would have been harmful to us, but we can hardly rely on that happening again!

I will be back later toDay to add more.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmm. That was... interesting. Seems that the word "cobbler" is following us everywhere. In fact, yes, losing a cobbler is a good thing. However, as Nogrod said, I don't quite understand the love triangle that seems to be unfolded here. But yes, let's leave it at that - seems that this should not concern us much, at least now it seems that there is no need to.

Now, however the balrogs killed one of their helpers, they probably had some reason to choose Volo. Personally, I saw him quite innocent yesterDay, but still quiet enough not to leave much tracks. Which is just what I fear. I'm going to check his posts if there can be anything that could lead us to someone, but... well, let's see.

EDIT: x-ed with Kath.

[Nogrod]

Now, however the balrogs killed one of their helpers, they probably had some reason to choose Volo. Personally, I saw him quite innocent yesterDay, but still quiet enough not to leave much tracks. Which is just what I fear. I'm going to check his posts if there can be anything that could lead us to someone, but... well, let's see.Good. I'm doing a little analysis on the votes, their timing (and reasons for that timing) and the reasons given to them. Let's see if we can find anything interesting from there.

[The Might]

Well, I must admit I feel I've been wrong about my last vote. I actually doubt Nogrod is a bad guy right now, just kinda feeling that. Yes, know it sounds somewhat stupid to change my mind so fast, but I hope I won't be wrong about this.
Nor do I think that Legate is bad. Looking through their past posts it doesn't seem there is any planning happening.
Hmmm...not sure what to believe of many others, hopefully with more posts from others I'll be able to make my mind.

[Macalaure]

They killed the cobbler? Has it ever happened before that the wolves took their cobbler down?

And why am I not surprised that a cobbler lover was a part of this game. ;)

No time to gloat, though, while the three chief baddies are still around.


This post is somewhat defensive, I know, but I want it out of the way.

There's the issue about talking about giftedness. In my opinion, talking about whether somebody is not gifted and talking about whether somebody is gifted is equally bad. All I wanted to say yesterday was that Rikae could be gifted just like anybody else could be, not any more - after Nogrod and Volo claimed she probably isn't. The idea of reverse psychology (suspecting Rikae of giftedness and saying she is not gifted so that the balrogs won't take her) didn't occur to me then, to be honest.

I indeed understood Volo's words as "Don't kill her at night", as he put it later, and there are things that a gentleman just does not speak about - that is, like playing with the idea that she's a gifted. Which was started by Mac, not Volo, from my point of view - if I thought that Rikae could be a gifted, I'd say exactly what Volo did.

Ok, the reverse psychology part I now understand. But I still don't get what you're talking about. Neither Volo nor I started it, but Nogrod. The fact that Volo was the cobbler and wanted to confuse us makes this statement look a little bad.


But that reaction had sort of negative-tone against those who commented around her.

Care to explain?


Back soon - with interesting stuff, hopefully.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Here's for the freaks of this game: the facts (I have tried to pick up the relevant quotes but feel free to disagree and we can see whether I missed some important arguments). Some thoughts on these to follow later...

11PM Rikae -> Rikae (pops in and votes)
She has played ten games over the past year and has never been lynched - I say it's her turn. Besides, she is evil: she smashed my finger in a car door once. Oh, that's anachronistic - make it a van. She also is acting erratic and bizarre, which is clearly a sign of Balroggery.

1PM Kath -> Nogrod (the only chance to be online)
I'm tempted to try and kill him off already just to keep the number of pages down! Has posted nothing while posting a lot. Keeps calling for people to talk which, yeah, great, but we know that and after the third post asking for chat you don't really need to do it again. Plus, that post that concluded everyone he'd looked at was a possible balrog? I don't know, maybe it's just his playing style this game, but it's making me suspicious.

4.45PM Brinn -> Rikae (goes to class not sure whether able to come back)
I really doubt Rikae is a gifted; why would she want to confuse the village when she is so important to them?
I'm not entirely confident, but she is the most suspicious right now. If we wait until Day 2, a balrog Rikae could come back and say she did it because she didn't have time and didn't have any suspects, sounding entirely innocent all of sudden. I'm not sure I want to risk that.

5.15PM Gil -> Rikae (In a hurry and far away from a computer)
if Rikae really wants to commit suicide then sure for nobody else has any sufficent misgivings towards them.
Oh and Brinniel is on my list not for voting Rikae but for taking advantage of that if Rikae indeed turns to be an innocent, then Brinniel can play off that again...


5.40PM Volo -> Rikae (an hour and a half to the deadline, didn’t appear after the vote)
What is that all about, Rikae?? If you have a role that leads you to victory by being lynched the first, I think you'll achieve your goal. Really, what was that about??


5.46PM The Might -> Nogrod (popped in to vote with this explanation)
Well, it seems that except Rikae's strange decision nothing else happened that could really make you think someone is a balrog or not. So I must admit, making the vote isn't easy, but I'll just follow my Gondolindrim instinct and vote

6.12PM Nerwen -> Rikae (popped in to vote...)
Look, Rikae, I wasn't going to do anything until you'd had a chance to speak for yourself. Now that you have... I've really very little idea what you are or what you're trying to achieve.
You're certainly not making any effort to get your neck out of the noose. Either you're treating the whole thing as a joke, or you think you're done for anyway so there's no point resisting, or you really are deliberately trying to get lynched.
I can't say that you or anyone else has done anything that definitely says "balrog" to me– but time is running out. In the absence of a better candidate–


6.55PM Mith -> Nogrod (partook the final discussion and stayed to the end)
I really don't like Nogrod using me as his human shield and trying to create an illusion mass of suspicion about me when there has been very little save his. Attack the best form of defence methinks... And he is doing that pseudo helpful thing... .my guess is he could well be a gung-ho wolf becaus of his possible major absence later in the game.
Rikae is a very bold player ..... so bold I wonder if there isn't something special going on - we have not had full disclosure ..so if it is her or you Nogrod,it will be you...
Well to late to get a swing vote for Gil so

6.57PM Legate -> Rikae (partook the final discussion and stayed to the end)
Nevertheless, Rikae's behavior is still very strange (her answer is not an answer at all), so it just looks that she's a cobbler or whatever kind of madness. So probably I'm going to vote for her - with hope that we get rid of a cobbler by this.
One more thing concerning Rikae, or another reason to vote her. I am a little bit afraid that if she remains an enigma and remains alive, or even worse, if she's a cobbler and remains alive, she will only make the situation troublesome as she will spread our forces, so to say. We will still have this "What is she? Is she a cobbler?" back in our minds, and we'll spend a large part of discussion about that. Of course getting a balrog on the first day would be nice, and I am somewhat reluctant to think that she is one, but if she is a cobbler, then on the first day, it's in fact still quite a success, or at least small compensation for not catching a balrog.
But unfortunately, it looks now that the state of the village is that questions about you won't give us rest until you are dead, if I say it very nastily.
So it's her or Nogrod definitively? It's clearer then...


6.59PM Macalaure -> Nogrod (popped in to vote with a list of suspicion)
Nogrod is an option, but lynching Nogrod on Day One with little evidence? But Gil is a shot into the dark...
But then, there's no real option anymore but Rikae and Nogrod.

6.59PM Nogrod -> Rikae (partook the final discussion and stayed to the end)
That's so sad it lead to this as I don't think she is a balrog (a cobbler possibly but probably not even that).

PS. some of the quotes are gathered from a few different posts and some are from a single post... basically the vote post then.

PS.2. The times are GMT

[Nogrod]

Btw. if I needed to vote right now I might go for Macalaure indeed.

Look at his last post yesterDay posted one minute before the deadline.

Now he clearly had
a) time to think
b) time to type
what he did. A full list of suspicions in different categories.

So why did he use his precious time to post a list instead of taking part in the discussion and trying to make any points he might have had for the good of the village?

I once caught a wolf-Morm from this very same behaviour. Because it didn't matter to him who was lynched as he knew both of the candidates were innocents! So as he was not actually concerned as we were on the last minutes he thought it better to clean his image by trying to look helpfulf and make a list - because he was not worried about the outcome!

A slight blunder then, a lapse on the concentration it was or something you didn't come to think?

It could be added that his first post toDay doesn't look too sincere either. It's not a problem if someone sees he needs to defend himself from suspicion. But to underline the fact that one's post is a defencive one looks a bit overdoing it. I mean a baddie thinks about these things all the time and wonders how his posts look in the eyes of the others. So they become easily oversensitive and feel the need to explain and back themselves up. I know it from experience... :rolleyes:

Also I had I slowly growing bad feelings about Mac already yesterDay. I need to go back to them later toDay to see whether there is something more than just bad feelings.

Back to looking at the votes...

[satansaloser2005]

First of all, what fortune for us to have the cobbler killed last night. I think that finding the hairy killers will be much easier with their little friend out of the way. Second of all, who perhaps looks the hairiest and balrogiest among us? As of yet I have no solid grasp on the identities of the hairy little beasts, although plenty of discussion has been thrown out by Nogrod in particular. Not to imply necessarily that he is a murderer in need of a shave, only that he's giving us a plethera of information which leads to no set conclusion, excluding his last post, which does require consideration. Further observation is needed before I cast my vote to end the life of ANY villager, be they miner or balrog, as I believe we must present a united front against our furry foes.



p.s. I may not be able to vote tomorrow! i have a class until almost 3pm CT so i may try to sneak out in the middle and go down to the library to check things out so i don't miss the deadline :)

[The Might]

Interesting idea Nogrod and the argument you make is quite convincing, I must admit.
Not so sure about the defensive part though, but then again, you're the more experienced player I guess.
Definitely good point, and I am quite interested to see what Mac will answer. Seems something does start to happen in here after all.

[Nogrod]

Things picked up from the voting yesterDay...

Kath I discussed with length already yesterDay and will not go back to her. See my post #43.

Brinn says:If we wait until Day 2, a balrog Rikae could come back and say she did it because she didn't have time and didn't have any suspects, sounding entirely innocent all of sudden. I'm not sure I want to risk that.And if she is a balrog she is telling the truth here. For she knows that if Rikae is alive on Day2 and becomes her sensible and intelligent self it would be hard to lynch her anymore and she might even be witty enough to cause the balrogs some trouble. (I have a few points on Brinn to come but I'll bring them forwards later as I first end up with these votes from yesterDay).

Gil looks like very confused indeed. And it's not the first time. I'm leaning towards his innocence at the moment as it would be astonishingly bold balrog-tactics to draw attention to oneself with such a weird logic.

Nerwen and The Might just popped in to vote and vanished. They didn't say they were in a hurry or otherwise unable to take part in the last deliberations (there were a lots of votes still to cast at the time they voted). So why did they just voted and left? A balrog would like to withdraw from the hot situations of the last minutes so as not to tumble there. So voting about an hour before the deadline and vanishing is the safe way to go.

I said already yesterDay that Mith's one-track mindedness and nervousness brought me back suspecting her towards the end of the Day but I must also say to her honour that she really stood to the end and tried to have an effect which looks more innocent than balrogish to me. So it's hard to say.

Legate sounds sensible and consistent. That would be the most dangerous kind of balroggery there is and I wouldn't put it past him to be able to pull that kind of bluff. But there seems to be a host of better candidates to look after right now.

Mac I already discussed in my last post. Maybe I could add that his speculation with Gil looks pretty odd. With one minute to go there was no real chance to lynch Gil! So why was that speculation there? Maybe he had written that part already earlier (ten minutes, fifteen minutes?) when there still was a chance to gather enough votes to lynch Gil instead of Rikae or myself? Maybe he just felt he needed to add something to the post as not to seem too happy with the choices? Whatever the reason the speculation on Gil looks strange from an innocent miner at that point.

Not voted: Sally (came forwards with apologies), Lhuna and Shasta
Not seen around: Naria

If Naria is not seen toDay she will be modfired so let's leave her to the graces if she doesn't appear.

EDIT: only that he's giving us a plethera of information which leads to no set conclusionI hope you're a bit more satisfied with rthis post even if I can't give you the certain identities of the Balrogs as yet...

[Macalaure]

A few things, mostly about Nogrod. There are some things he said that seem odd.

While I agree with what Kath said about him, I wouldn't automatically conclude it's very suspicious. But he makes a lot of fuss around her suspicion and I think his defence is a little over the top (you mean mine was, too? Maybe, but that doesn't matter :p)

All I said was that the ways some people commented on Rikae were telling.You're right in doing that and it's a good viewpoint but you should also note that most of the people do not wish to restate things some others have already pointed out.I don't understand what his comment has to do with mine. :confused:

The silent balrogs seem to have won the Day once again which is a pity indeed.How do you know the balrogs were silent?


Neither of these gives me a truly suspicious impression, but my overall picture of him is just fuzzy. The way Mith went after Nogrod is strange as well. I'm confused about both of them.


Oh, and I made that list of suspects while skim-reading the thread within a few minutes. I simply copied from the list of players and rearranged the names. The list wasn't meant to look helpful (it didn't even include any comment!), just to help me make up my mind.


I don't have time to look at others closer right now. See you tomorrow.

edit: crossed with Nogrod

[Macalaure]

Well, as I said, I wrote it while skim-reading. And at the end of it, Gil and you ended up being at the top of the list.

[The Might]

After these posts Macalaure seems pretty suspicious.
First he posts, saying that he must quickly leave and has no time to comment on anything else, so it looks to me as if he was kind of in a hurry.
Still, he finds time 5 minutes later to post again in a quite defensive trying to explain why Nogrod and Gil ended up as those he suspected most.

Again, I hope those that have posted less will find time to do that till tomorrow.
See you tomorrow!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay. I didn't have time to go through yesterDay's posts concerning Volo much after all, because in the last two hours some important things just popped at me and I did not have time to do anything else. And I'm going to sleep soon, so nothing much from me now, and what more, I'm not so sure with my toDay's participation at large. What I can say for certain already is that I'm not going to be here for the whole second half of the Day, including DL :( And this time it's definite, so I am voting probably in the morning.

Now, what I would like to solve primarily:

In reply to Mac:
Ok, the reverse psychology part I now understand. But I still don't get what you're talking about. Neither Volo nor I started it, but Nogrod. The fact that Volo was the cobbler and wanted to confuse us makes this statement look a little bad.
Oh, sorry, I forgot mentioning Nogrod. But I did not focus on Nogrod or Volo back then, but you, mainly. What I posted was referring to the moment when I was pondering (while reading the thread) whether Rikae could not be, let's say, a Seer disguising herself. I did not think it's like that, but that was the second possibility (the 10% after the 80% that she's a cobbler).
What you said seemed to me as if you are not speaking about Rikae much, but trying to, in a wolfy-way make it seem that Volo and/or Nogrod are suspicious:
Then there's Nogrod and Volo. I don't like the argument that Rikae is in no way gifted. I don't think we can be entirely sure. The argument also has an aftertaste of "She's not gifted, so when in doubt, we can lynch her without much of a loss." Even though they both denies this, it's in there nevertheless.
The second part of it. To me it seemed like slight way of rising suspicion against them.

Kath. Going through her post of yesterday, it still gives me that feeling of "you are all bad". But if she wrote it in a hurry, it's explainable that she could not write too much. Her post toDay is not helping much to get a clearer picture on her, so hopefully she posts during (my) night so that I have more info in the morning. One thing that puzzles me on her yesterDay's post is this:
[Legate] is being a bit pedantic about Rikae though. 9 games is very close to 10. Maybe there was a miscount, or he missed a junior game. It just feels like suspecting for the sake of suspecting.
I did not speak about it yesterDay, so if anyone is still interested in that, with the lynches of Rikae I was mistaken. But she actually was almost lynched, but people retracted and she was killed during the night. But I was a Wolf back then so what mattered to me was that she's dead, you see :) Anyway, and this is what I wanted to say, I don't see how this should concern us now, and my words about Rikae lying was only a joke. Otherwise I was meditating about her being a cobbler or not. Now I don't see why would Kath mention exactly this, unless she is joking as well, but again, if she is, then why she uses so much space for it in her only post? So if anything, this looks suspicious, or strange at least.

The Might. From his posts, I have the worse and worse feeling. He appears, says to the person who posted before him "I agree with you" and sometimes, as we have seen yesterDay, votes. BUT, given the pattern how he does that, I'm getting the feeling that despite it looks suspicious, it's his style of playing. Or, if not anything better, then at least his adopted style of playing as a balrog. This being his first game we have nothing to compare this with, but I'm willing to leave him without suspecting for now (though I am watching him. In the first game I played, I was a Werewolf and made it to the end partially, I believe, because I was a newbie).

Sally is making me nervous toDay. She was making me feel somewhat unsettled yesterDay, but her funny chatter about hairy balrogs is sort of disturbing. "What's with the haircut?" Too much hair, too little substance, I'd say. But again, as she says she's not going to be around much toDay, I'm putting her away for now.

Mr. Nogrod is actually quite fine, helpful, nice, polite (he provides info even about himself). He's known to do that, but. But there is one but and that is that he can be using the Voice of Saruman-tactics, even on me, trying to rally masses to his cause. For example, picking Mac as suspect when he knows I have suspected him, and making a crusade against him. There is the question what would a Nogrog (or Balrod?) do if Mac was lynched and turned innocent. Of course, there would be the possiblity that they are both balrogs and Mac would be making a sacrifice for the greater good. But to be honest, I believe this is not probable. If you look at them, it would take much effort to come up with a plan leading to the situation in which we are now. Not that I am underrating them, but it just does not seem probable. Even though the Mods we currently have are capable of making a balrog team Nogrod-Mac-someone.

Others have not spoken this far. I'm really leaving now. I am very curious about the other people's reaction on toDay, but that remains to be seen. Good whatever to you.

[Nogrod]

Brinniel:

#15 Says she’d hoped for more talk and will wait if someone talks... Everyone must be watched closely.

#20 After I had asked her why did she just complain that no one was saying anything rather than saying something herself she says she had made “serious comments”. Says that baddies might hide within bantering – which is true of course. Defends herself once again by saying she had actually “said something” – which can be questioned indeed. I find this post most self-defencive taking into account that there were no open suspicions on her at that moment.

#22 Questions Rikae’s self-vote. Says going suicidal doesn’t help us finding the balrogs. This is most true but also something a balrog would love to say given the opportunity... Oh, how it looks good!

#29 Makes analysis / tells us what she thinks of the people. Basically she thinks that she has no opinion or that people have said nothing of substance. Makes a good analysis on Rikae’s possible roles and says of me that “at this point it is hard to say”.

#42 Votes for Rikae and disagrees with Mac in a way that leaves me quite baffled. Were they talking about the same thing in the first place? Says I’m her second suspicion because of the early posts but that she has not enough evidence to back it up. Now I wondered this back up pointing to the “early posts” already earlier: if she wasn’t so sure any more / if there was no later suspicion so why did she boost the choice that was emerging thanks to Kath (whose points I still find the most fabricated in here)? So I was a bit disturbed how she was ready to kind of ensure the choices we would pick to lynch would be Rikae and myself. I know now that we both are innocents (and if she is a balrog she would know it too) and that kind of choice would be very practical and happy one for the baddies indeed.

So there are things in here that make me a bit worried about Brinn but I have to say that I’m not so sure about this as I was while I skimmed the posts making the vote-analysis. Darn this is hard... and fun!

A short comment to follow and then I need to sleep.

[Nogrod]

So just for the (RL)night a short list clarifying what I have been trying to say and also of what I have left unsaid as there's a limit to my time too. (Just believe it! :))

I find suspicious:
Kath
Macalaure

I find somewhat suspicious:
Brinniel

I'm pretty much undecided as I haven't thought of them close enough (my own fault that needs correcting):
The Might
Nerwen
Sally

We don't have enough to say this or that - which will soon become a damning feature if it continues:
Lhuna
Shasta

Will solve by itself if she does not appear:
Naria

I'm leaning more towards innocence at the moment:
Gil
Mith - I've rethought yesterDay evening's last moments
Legate

[Brinniel]

It could be added that his first post toDay doesn't look too sincere either. It's not a problem if someone sees he needs to defend himself from suspicion. But to underline the fact that one's post is a defencive one looks a bit overdoing it. I mean a baddie thinks about these things all the time and wonders how his posts look in the eyes of the others. So they become easily oversensitive and feel the need to explain and back themselves up.
Indeed. Any baddie who feels they've been put under a hot fire can become overly defensive. And often, such behaviour only digs them a deeper hole. Isn't that what happened in the last game with Lommy?

Anyways, Nogrod does seem to be making a lot more sense toDay, but I'm still not entirely sure if I should trust him.

After these posts Macalaure seems pretty suspicious.
First he posts, saying that he must quickly leave and has no time to comment on anything else, so it looks to me as if he was kind of in a hurry.
Still, he finds time 5 minutes later to post again in a quite defensive trying to explain why Nogrod and Gil ended up as those he suspected most.

I honestly don't understand why you find his timing to be suspicious. I got the impression his comment, "I don't have time to look at others closer right now" meant he didn't have time to make any lengthy analyses. Mac obviously cross-posted and had a few spare moments to skim Nogrod's post before leaving....I know I like to read any cross posts before I go, otherwise I might forget about them when I come back.

To answer Nogrod's question:
Says I’m her second suspicion because of the early posts but that she has not enough evidence to back it up. Now I wondered this back up pointing to the “early posts” already earlier: if she wasn’t so sure any more / if there was no later suspicion so why did she boost the choice that was emerging thanks to Kath (whose points I still find the most fabricated in here)?
Your earlier posts consisted mainly of banter, and you said a lot without providing any useful information and I found that somewhat suspicious. There wasn't enough evidence to back that up because none of your later posts screamed guilty. It doesn't change the fact that I was still uncomfortable from your first posts. But I won't vote for someone based only off banter and nothing else.
Anyways, I hope that clears things up.

Ugh, I'm afraid I've been crazy exhausted lately with schoolwork. Let me go clear my head with a nap and I'll come back with more thoughts later.

[Kath]

Well, I'm back, and I suppose I should answer Noggie since he does seem intent on continuing this suspicion of me.

I think the main point is that I came up with fabricated suspicion against him. I don't really know how to answer that, except to say that I didn't. It was Day 1, I had about an hour free to post and not that many posts to base any suspicion. I wanted to make a useful vote rather than just flinging any old name into the hat so I did try to put reasoning behind it.

Ah! I've just found a numbered post. Now I can answer in order. :)

1) Posting a lot ~ yes, you had. Compared to everyone else at least. I think only Mith was close on you there. It wasn't a joke, because while you have seen baddies hide in silent villages, I have seen them hide in plain and very noisy sight. There is absolutely no reason why a balrog wouldn't be the most talkative person in a village. Also, your assertion that killing off the loudmouths lead to a silent village is true, but I'd rather a silent village with only one baddie left to find than a noisy village with all the baddies left. I'd rather a boring game than a higher chance of being slaughtered in my sleep.

2) Posting a lot while saying nothing ~ you have often called for substance in posts, especially on Day 1, so when I find you not doing that yourself it startles me. It may well just be a difference in opinion, you think they're full of substance, I don't. Since then you have written a lot of helpful and substantive posts, so this claim at least I will relinquish. :)

3) Seeing balrogs everywhere ~ it wasn't the fact that you were, it was the style you were doing it in. It was too blase for you. I don't know whether you're trying to change your playing style or something you're just really rubbing me up the wrong way so far. Er, which is also the answer to point 4. No, it's not an argument, unless one can make an argument which says you're behaving differently therefore you may have a different role.

Look, basically, to me my arguments aren't sham. They were what I came up with after reading the posts that had been written so far. My only motive is to find out whether you are, as per my suspicion, a balrog. I don't know why you're jumping on this quite so fiercely considering that I hardly started a bandwagon for you and the suspicion wasn't even that intense, it was just the most intense of any of the suspicions I'd gathered.

[satansaloser2005]

EDIT: I hope you're a bit more satisfied with rthis post even if I can't give you the certain identities of the Balrogs as yet...


Certainly. My apologies if I seem offended or put off by your overposting, as this is certainly not the case. I'm just used to being the only one in games that is talking, analyzing, or in my case making jokes to see what kind of reactions they garner. And I don't expect you to hand us a balrog outright (unless you are one, in which case go ahead and tighten your noose! :P) it's just that I've been tired the last couple days and therefore too lazy to make my own judgements.



With that said, or rather not said as I am not completely in my right mind, I will throw out my own suspicion list, which is basically just who looks like they either have something to hide or something to cover up with clever banter. Could be totally off, as I've just woken up from a nap, but after requesting that Nogrod post a more decisive thought I believe I should do so myself. The list is not all inclusive as I haven't formed an opinion on everyone yet. If I should live til the next day perhaps I can be of more help.


Harboring Hairy Tendencies, or at least in need of a shave:
Kath
Mac
Brinn (huge question mark!)

Leaning innocent, at least for the moment:
Nogrod
Gil
Mith

Where have they gone:
Shasta
Lhuna
Naria


I may update this when I return from church this evening, so feel free to comment while I'm gone. :)


p.s. I took a nap this afternoon and dreamt that I checked on here and everyone was voting me. just thought i'd shared that cuz i couldnt believe i'd dreamed about the game :)

[Nerwen]

Nerwen and The Might just popped in to vote and vanished. They didn't say they were in a hurry or otherwise unable to take part in the last deliberations (there were a lots of votes still to cast at the time they voted). So why did they just voted and left? A balrog would like to withdraw from the hot situations of the last minutes so as not to tumble there. So voting about an hour before the deadline and vanishing is the safe way to go.

Yes, I owe you all an explanation for that. I was in fact in a hurry, and should have said so; however, I was also very tired from having pulled an all-nighter working on a project. I think I should say here that time zones are an issue for me, and mean that I'm mostly going to have to vote either very early or at the last minute.

I'll get back to you when I've had time to read through everything.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here! I'm here!

My deepest, deepest apologies. x_x;

I've been extreeeeemely busy designing props for the upcoming play at my college. But I'm here now, promise!

Off to read up...

Edit: Okay, after even just a glance, there's something about The Might that immediately sets me on edge. I'll see if I can get something concrete.

[Gil-Galad]

Well now i am offically confused.

Last Day Nogrod was throwing suspicion at me now today hes practically protecting me... this irrational behaviour scares me quite a bit. though i know Nogrod has his reasons that most of us can not seem to understand... i don't want to say too much about him that gives him away.

Well, as I said, I wrote it while skim-reading. And at the end of it, Gil and you ended up being at the top of the list.

I did not see any reference to me during your post this day so i don't see how adding me to top of list for little reason seems relevant... and by attacking two people at the same time, you know that is dangerous in any WW game and it will get you on many suspicion lists...

And i really want to hear more from Mith, last day she really made me uneasy...

Brinniel is acting quiet and collected today... which i say is a rather good move for a wolf and a civilian so i am rather more calm about her...

so i will wait for Mith to talk, if not then i feel my vote will probably go for her, but if she does and brings something relative to us Mac might receive it instead, mainly for being weird today... like trying too hard to spread accusations... and that leads to Brinniel's quiet defense of Mac... its a vicious cycle.

so if Mac=Wolf then i might look at Brinniel=Wolf too for trying to defend him in that subtle way...

OOC: Oh and i am not confused and i'm getting tired of every game you calling me that. i miss things yes. your the ones that are confused because you don't understand what i said last game... i'm talking serious RL Gil here. it is really getting annoying as being the confused one every time i play so if you want clarifcation just ask, don't immediately go for "hes confused as usual".

...

/End Rant.

[Naria]

You can stop bouncin' off the walls now Noggy...I'm here:D I will offer my apologies to everyone, but I am not going to make any excuses...cuz quite frankly, I don't think anyone really cares:rolleyes:

Sooo Nog seems to be off on his usual ranting about useless individuals and so on. Not too surprising there. What I'm not understanding is even when people make a contribution you still aren't satisfied. TM and Nerwen are new, at least to me, it looks like they are trying and some of the things said have made quite a bit of sense.

You see, this is what has always bugged me in these villages. If one does not make a good enough post one is chastised for it? Tell me, what is a good enough post? As you well know, I for one, will not do a huge analytical post. I will not list a whole friggin village and make a three or four sentence comment on each. I do what I can, even if it means a small post just commenting. Who knows, maybe that comment will lead to the capture of a baddy. But *shrugs*, you couldn't be bothered with those types of posts right?

Now that I got that off my chest. I'm going to go back to reading and see if I can't find something a little more...hmm constructive?:p

[Brinniel]

Some analysis:

Well, it seems almost everyone has spoken toDay. We still haven't heard from Lhuna or Mith. Mith I'm still confused about. I'm not too worried about her for the time being, mainly because I'm sure we'll hear more from her later. Lhuna, with her single post, I have absolutely no idea. Hopefully, she'll still show up, or she may be mod-fired (it's after two Days of no voting, right?).

It's good to see that Naria's shown up. That makes zero no-shows for this game (a first in awhile, I think). Anyways, I've never played with Naria before, so I don't know her style. But nothing jumps out at me for the time being.

Gil has this style of being very up front about his suspicions. He doesn't beat around the bush, but just says what he thinks, if that makes any sense. It can be a dangerous style to play as it can turn many heads. Yet, I don't think it's balrog behaviour...he's just way too obvious. I don't want to completely eliminate the possibilty that Gil may be a balrog and let him fall under my radar, but for now I just don't find him suspicious.

Shasta has said very little of substance except for a few side comments. Not enough to know anything.

So far Nerwen's word and tone seem to be sincere. I still find her most likely innocent.

Sally's use of the word "hairy" makes me wonder: Do balrogs have hair? :rolleyes: Anyways, I don't like how she's made up a suspicion list, but has not explained the reasons behind them. Now, I understand it mainly has to do with time constraints, so I hope she manages to find time to return and explain her suspicions before the Day is over.

Kath is honestly still a big question mark for me. Her arguments make sense and I don't see anything fishy about them. I just don't know whether they are sincere, or simply one big bluff. A Were-Kath has fooled me before; I won't make the mistake of letting her slide under my radar.

As I briefly mentioned earlier, Nogrod makes some good points against Mac. But what worries me about him is the same thing Legate mentioned:
But there is one but and that is that he can be using the Voice of Saruman-tactics, even on me, trying to rally masses to his cause. For example, picking Mac as suspect when he knows I have suspected him, and making a crusade against him.
Nogrod is always quite persuasive in his arguments, innocent or not. As a baddie, finding allies is essential and so far it seems that Nogrod is managing to do just that. Then again, persuading others to lynch an innocent Mac could be quite dangerous if he's a balrog...unless he's got something else up his sleeve.

Coming to Legate, I find his posts to be helpful and genuine. Perhaps he is a very cunning balrog, but right now I'm inclined to think him innocent.

There's something fishy to me about The Might. I don't like how he's so quick to bandwagon with Nogrod about Mac. His last post almost seemed like he was looking for his own excuse to accuse Mac and it just felt fabricated. Maybe it's because I don't know his playing style, but we cannot disregard newbies just for the sake that they are new. Otherwise, we might let a possible balrog slide by.

ToDay, Mac's posts are all overly defensive and he seems to feel the need to explain or clarify anything that has been questioned. He just doesn't feel like the typical Mac, and I find that worrisome.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, not much time, but on those who posted since I was last here:

Brinniel - well, not that I would be particularly settled with her, but she is not particularly suspicious. Currently, I have nothing much to say on her.

Kath - cannot say that I'd be settled, but after her last post I feel somewhat better about her. That does not mean dropping her from my suspicions rightaway, but waiting how she acts in the future.

Sally - Again, not helping much in my decisions. But I'm leaving her now be, there is still enough people to focus on, she can wait till later.

Nerwen - I don't know. My opinion on her from the second part of yesterDay were not very clear. They are not still.

Shasta - looks genuine. But that's about all I can say now.

Gil - confusing as always. Like this: and by attacking two people at the same time, you know that is dangerous in any WW game and it will get you on many suspicion lists... I believe not, Gil. It's quite normal having more than one high suspect, because there are also more than one balrog. Having always only one suspect could mean that one is a balrog picking always one innocent who seems that he'd be a good scrapegoat.
And
Brinniel is acting quiet and collected today... which i say is a rather good move for a wolf and a civilian so i am rather more calm about her...
Emphasise mine. What's that supposed to mean?

OOC: Oh, and I just read the bottom of your post, Gil. I understand what you mean and will heed it. But also note that in this post, I am saying you are confusING, not confused (anyway, how could anyone know that you are confused when he's not you? Unless you say "I am confused" we have no reason to say you are).

Naria! Wonderful, you are here. :) Good points, though nothing that would exactly help to form an opinion on her. Of course - from one post...

And one technical thing:
Hopefully, she'll still show up, or she may be mod-fired (it's after two Days of no voting, right?).
I am not sure if this rule applies in this particular game. Was it stated on the admin thread or at the beginning of this one? I believe not.

Okay, so, I'll check back in let's say two hours and probably vote. Probably I'll go for someone of those whom I mentioned in my previous post, though it's not necessary. Well, who knows, let's see.

[Nerwen]

Now that we know Volo was in truth the cobbler, a.k.a. Maeglin, what, if anything, can we learn from his actions and his terrible fate?

Here's a summary:

First post: Notes he won’t be able to post until the end of the Day.

Second post: Defends Nogrod against Macalaure, then is himself mildly critical of some of Nogrod's early comments. Agrees with Nogrod that Rikae cannot be gifted. States his belief that she may be the cobbler, but is probably an ordo.

Third post: Answering Macalaure's charges, claims that his reason for saying Rikae could not be gifted was, not to imply she was disposable, but to put the balrogs off her trail. Expresses suspicion of Macalaure. Qualifies this by saying that "last time I did this, I was wrong". Says he has a "gut feeling" that I (Nerwen) am innocent.

Fourth post: Points out that Gil-galad's remarks about Brinniel are silly and possibly incriminating. Defends Kath against Nogrod.

Fifth post: Casts the fourth vote for Rikae, already the clear favourite.


On the whole, Volo/Maeglin seems to have been playing it pretty safe, mostly chiming in with other people's suggestions or stating the obvious. For what it's worth, though, here's the score:

Attacked:
Macalaure
Gil-galad
Rikae

Defended:
Nogrod
Rikae (again)
Nerwen
Brinniel
Kath.

This may reflect Volo's beliefs about the identity of the werebalrogs– but as he knew no more than the other miners, what he thought isn't all that relevant. (Yes, I am bound to say that– but it's also true.)

The question: did he do something that signed his death-warrant? *dramatic chords*

Some scenarios to play with:

1. Gil-galad and Macalaure are werebalrogs. Volo was killed for accusing them. Simple– and rather dumb.

2. Ditto, but Volo was killed as a double-bluff.

3. They're innocent. The real balrogs killed Volo to cast suspicion on them.

4. One of them is a balrog, the other isn't. Any of the above possibilities could apply.

5. Volo was killed because he defended someone the balrogs plan to have lynched.

6. Volo was picked more-or-less at random. I'm afraid that's just as likely a scenario as any.

That's all I have time for now.

[Nogrod]

You can stop bouncin' off the walls now Noggy...I'm here:D Good to see you Naria!

Although I'm afraid we have been reading different threads this far as I can't quite recognize your outburst's relation to my posting in this game. :)

Just a few comments as I'm in a hurry right now.

Sally's post raises eyebrows indeed. Brinn on the contrary has managed to bring my suspions on her down a lot. Gil's post makes me think about him as an innocent even more strongly than I did earlier.

Please people. ToDay we should have more than two viable candidates to choose from. With only two people to choose from there is a great probability that they both are innocents (like yesterDay) and we stand only to lose. Also with some actual choices to be made we'd have something to read from the voting on the Days to come.

[Brinniel]

I am not sure if this rule applies in this particular game. Was it stated on the admin thread or at the beginning of this one? I believe not.

Stated on the second post of this thread among the rules:
Players who don’t post or vote in two Days in a row will be removed from the game
So unless our Mod-God decides to be lenient, anyone who didn't vote yesterDay needs to vote toDay in order not to get mod-killed.

[Kath]

Although I'm afraid we have been reading different threads this far as I can't quite recognize your outburst's relation to my posting in this game.
Actually Nog, Naria isn't the only one to have garnered such a reaction from your posts. I am glad that it's not just me, and it does begin to make me wonder if it is just your playing style rather than anything balrogish, but you have been clashing with people. Brinn said much the same thing yesterDay. I suppose it doesn't really matter, but I think it's good for you to see where people are coming from.

But now, who is dead and what can we learn from them?

Rikae ~ It is unfortunate that either no one remembered Nilp yesterDay or everyone was just waiting for the chance to leap on a self-presenting victim. It is also unfortunate that such a bandwagon popped up because I don't think we're going to get a lot out of the voting. The ones thats do look a but suspicious though are Noggie (surprise, surprise :rolleyes:) because he actually says 'I don't think she's a balrog' and then votes for her anyway. So far as I can see there was no reason to if he didn't think she was evil, the votes weren't really close enough for him to have been lynched if he didn't vote for her and you should never vote for someone you don't think has a chance of being evil. Nerwen did a similar thing too, seemingly taking offense at Rikae's playing style and lynching her 'for want of a better candidate', which I don't like. There were enough votes left to come that the bandwagon for Rikae could have been stopped in it's tracks, and it's votes that are based on the idea that 'oh well it's going to happen anyway, might as well help' that allow it to continue.

As for Volo, considering he was the Cobbler we have to take everything he said with a pinch of salt. As fo why he was killed, well he wasn't here much yesterDay, there is hardly a trail to find. Indeed, barely anyone is talking about him because there is just so little to base anything off.

Now, what was the other thing? Oh yes, Mith. She really is very jumpy. I want to see more from her toDay because yesterDay almost everything she posted was a reaction to something someone else said, and it was always quite defensive. Possibly just fear of a Day 1 lynching but really she was never in danger of that so it is a bit odd. But I do thank her for this comment:

I know to my cost that a WereKath is nigh on incapapble of putting a paw wrong.
If only you knew the hell I go through every time I'm a wolf, Mith, trying to make sure that's actually true! But I'm pleased I'm so fearsome when evil. :D

[Nogrod]

you have been clashing with people.Not at all Kath dear. Show me where I do clash with people. What I'm doing is trying to find anything that could be considered suspicious and then tell it to you. That means that I have to suspect each and everyone of you and to try to sort out which of those suspicions are good ones and which are faulty. That's what we innocents need to do. We can't afford hunkering down and wishing people would not lynch / kill us by agreeing with everyone else. That's what the gifteds and baddies need to consider for in the end we basic miners need to be ready also to die as that ensures a moment more time for the gifteds.

So I'm all ready to ba a lynching candidate toDay and I'd like to add Kath to that list as well. So we'd need two other candidates still. Any ideas?


Oh, yes and this one... kind of makes me wonder even more what you are up to Kath:
The ones thats do look a but suspicious though are Noggie (surprise, surprise :rolleyes:) because he actually says 'I don't think she's a balrog' and then votes for her anyway. So far as I can see there was no reason to if he didn't think she was evil, the votes weren't really close enough for him to have been lynched if he didn't vote for her and you should never vote for someone you don't think has a chance of being evil.Happily I got only one vote on the last minute but there were so many votes pending at that time that it was a vote with which I was securing my back. I'd have cursed a lot if I hadn't voted her and the last minute votes would have turned the tables. I've seen those last minute frenzies where everything turns upsidedown at the last minute.

And anyway. What's the point of that suspicion in the first place? Why would that action talk of being a baddie exactly? Beats me...

So you're once again laying nonexistant cases before our eyes. And that looks suspicious.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, folks. As I said before, this is the last time I am here today. I consider it very unfortunate, because it seems that now something may start to happen and toDay's voting may be important. And Mith and Lhuna did not appear toDay yet.

First one thing. I was re-thinking everything over and over and over again while writing this post, and there is no time to explain the thoughts that were going through my mind. The only thing I can say is that there were these names swirling through my mind: Macalaure, The Might, and even Sally.

Currently, my most probable votes are either Mac or The Might. Funnily enough, I believe that if I knew that Mac is innocent, I'd vote for Nogrod. I'd end with Mac rather than The Might. Mainly because:

1. Reasons in my post where I spoke about TM.
2. I don't want to accuse TM without actually giving him the opportunity to react. And since I'm not going to be here toDay anymore, I won't have the chance to read his response. Mac, on the other hand, already from his on initiative defended himself from certain points of view. In fact, that's not a good reasoning, however noble towards TM it may be. But I've been thinking several minutes about that, and I must choose.

What speaks for me against voting Mac? Well, mainly I would name the fact that it seems that there can be an easy bandwaggon created by it, and if Noggins is a balrog, the worse.

There is still the possibility that I may skip toDay's voting at all, or at least not vote now and wait if I miraculously don't have chance to appear at the end of the Day. But I really doubt it.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog. Really, really... what I said... I have the feeling that I'm going to miss something when I'm not going to be here for the DL...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I'm really torn. And there are about five minutes for me to decide whether to vote Mac now or hope that a miracle happens and I'll be able to check internet somewhere. I really must leave because there is a guest lecture by professor... whatever is his name... from Germany and no way I am coming late there.

Speak up, someone! Quick!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

They killed the cobbler? Has it ever happened before that the wolves took their cobbler down?

No time to gloat, though, while the three chief baddies are still around.

This post is somewhat defensive, I know, but I want it out of the way.

Okay, whatever. I just looked at this whole post once again. Seems really balrog-made. I'm voting. Que sera sera...

++Macalaure

Goodbye.

[Macalaure]

An unsuspected lack of time has hit me this week, so I have to make it brief. I'll be there about an hour from the deadline.

I could make a long analysis of Legate and why he is out of his mind in this game so far, but I won't, because a) there's no time and b) I have a feeling I would end up with the conclusion that he's confused, but innocently confused, so it's probably not worth doing anyway.

At the moment, I trust Kath, Nerwen and maybe Mith, but that's all, sadly.

It's even sadder that many have still contributed too little for me to draw conclusions from (Lhuna, Shasta, Naria, Gil).

I don't know where to put Sally and the Might.

Be very wary of Nogrod, my dear friends, be very wary of Nogrod!

And while I'm 'only' very wary of Nogrod, I am very suspicious of Brinniel. I will come back to that when I'm back.

[The Might]

Well, back home and I notice that quite many posts have been regarding me being a bad guy, due to the fact that I agreed with Nogrod and also with Legate about Mac.
However, I had had my own suspicions about Mac from the start of the 2nd day. I felt that this constant need to explain the own decisions (lol, seems I'm doing that now) was a bit exaggerated and seems quite balrogish. And also, I must admit that as a new player in the game I do rather tend to somewhat trust the intuition of more experienced players. This of course does not mean that I would do anything an older player tries to convince me to, but as already said, since I already had my own suspicions abut Mac and some other god arguments were brought against him, I agreed with the others.
Since I was suspicious about Mac and he and Nogrod didn't seem to be on the best terms, I also felt that both he and Legate were and are innocent, as as Legate already pointed out, I somehow doubt the balrogs would sacrifice one of them just to make us feel safe from one of them. Of course, it is possible, but not really a good early game strategy in my opinion.

All in all, I've made up my mind, and am voting out

++Macalaure

I am quite certain about my vote and also am suspicious about Kath, but I'm not entirely sure about that one.

Sorry that I need to vote early again today and it's not because I want to avoid the ending discussion but because I'm invited to a friend who is turning 19 today. I mean, WW is nice, but I'm not saying no to cake. :D Anyway, he's got a computer with Internet so I might make a post later on if I have the chance to, but can't promise anything.

[Kath]

Nog, I can't believe you just called me 'dear'! I love this new patronising air you've popped up with. Look, by all means suspect people, it is after all the point of the game, it's the manner in which you're doing it that I meant clashes with people. Naria said something to that effect before you'd really even mentioned her so it isn't just a reaction to having suspicion put on you.

Anyway, I don't want to argue that point any more. It's obviously we both have very different ideas on it and I don't want to create a two-way fight, it's just boring. So let's look at the other things you said.

I'd have cursed a lot if I hadn't voted her and the last minute votes would have turned the tables.
You claim that you're innocent, and we know now that Rikae was, so in terms of numbers it actually doesn't matter which one of you died, if one of you was going to. So why the cursing?

And the reason for the suspicion was that you voted for someone you considered to be innocent to save your own life, which is something I consider suspicious.

[Nogrod]

Oh, Mac! You're not making this easier... :confused:

But I'm glad you posted. I have done some rethinking during the pauses today and well, at one time I was almost ready to say we stick to Kath and forget you from the lynchlist but...

I'd say you and Legate are not both innocents and probably not both balrogs either. Now some things which Legate has said toDay have really started to make me wonder about his game (and in that case he has played this sooo beautifully - hats off to him). But now as I read your post I'm afraid I'm back on square one again.

---

And please people, bring forwards more suspects! I'm waiting to see what you have on Brinn, Mac as I've thought her a bit more unsuspicious lately - but I haven't given her any serious thought of late.

Also let's remember that having only vocal players on the lynch-row might in the end prove to be a bad decision.

So let's also consider some enigmas toDay.

OOC: I've a lot of work to do at home this evening but I will try to shove some of them aside to play this as well.

[Nogrod]

Anyway, I don't want to argue that point any more. It's obviously we both have very different ideas on it Wholeheartedly agreed with! And as this seems to cover also the case of "patronising" (which meaning I had no idea about!) I guess we should discuss these semantic-emotional sides of English language after the game. But my intent is not to clash with anyone.


You claim that you're innocent, and we know now that Rikae was, so in terms of numbers it actually doesn't matter which one of you died, if one of you was going to. So why the cursing?Because I would have been out of the game after Day1 - as happend in the game before the last one... I like this game so it's not nice to get out of it on Day1. Simple as that. And remember, we didn't know then Rikae was innocent but I knew I am.

And the reason for the suspicion was that you voted for someone you considered to be innocent to save your own life, which is something I consider suspicious.There was no way my one vote would have saved her and even with a last minute flow of votes to me I didn't know whether Rikae was a goodie or a baddie... And I tried to have alternative candidates forwards. No one just paid heed to my calls.

But now I think we need some fresh ideas. I do agree with you about the duels... and they are not only boring but oftentimes also counterproductive as well.

[Gil-Galad]

I am voting:

++Macalaure

If he turns into a wolf then i will be staring more at Brinniel and i am sad of Mith's quietness...

[Brinniel]

Okay, those I find suspicious/somewhat suspicious right now:

Mac for his odd behaviour. First, he was overly defensive and now he just seems to have this "I give up" attitude.

Nogrod whom I keep wobbling back and forth on. Some of his comments make me worrisome, while I find some of his arguments quite sensible.

Kath for her persistance on Nogrod. At first, I found her arguments against him reasonable, but she just keeps going at him and that irks me.

The Might for his bandwaggoning. Though I must admit, his last post makes me less suspicious. Perhaps, he is just a confused newbie.

I'm a little wary of Gil for his two Days of very safe voting (comfortably staying in the bandwagon). I don't know if I want to use the word suspicious just yet, but it does bother me.

[Nogrod]

Legate -> Mac
The Might -> Mac
Gil -> Mac3

Aaargh!

So let's just shoot ourselves to the leg now shall we? There will be no trace left from this vote if we continue like this...

I'll try to look at some other possibilities we could still consider - besides Kath that is. :)

[Macalaure]

I'm leading by three already? Oh, come on.... :rolleyes:

Well, I have little hope I can escape this, since I think it's probably not even the deed of the balrogs that got me here, and they surely won't save me. Anyway, here are my thoughts on Brinniel. Tomorrow, when you know this came from an innocent, they might be worth something. Or not.

I actually started suspecting her from her first post (#15) on (check my #31). She says she has nothing to say and then just agrees with Mith on something. This was too much of a feel-good feeling. When Nogrod criticised her, she reacted quite thin-skinned in #20. But then she made some reasonable analysis in #29, and I didn't pursue her anymore. In #42 she comes back and blows the "Rikae isn't gifted" horn that others used before to justify her vote for Rikae, adding the obligatory "I'm not entirely confident".

Today, her behaviour towards Nogrod and me is very suspicious.

She completely turned around on him today. First, in #99, she practically dropped her suspicion of him and explains/defends herself against his accusation. So far so good. She then picks up Legate's Voice-of-Saruman comment in #106, and while she said she's worried by it, she basically defends Nogrod that if it was the case, he's playing very dangerous.
It's subtle, yes, but after she appeased Nogrod she's clearly trying to associate herself with him and - surprise - it's working.

She first defends me from TM's weak 5-minute point in #99. Yesterday, she had some suspicion against me, then interrupts it with a defense, only to go for it again in #106. Note especially that none of the points she raised against me are genuine. She congratulates Nogrod(!) for his points against me, she notes that I've been defensive (which I was in exactly one post) and said I "didn't feel like the typical Mac" (which is basically taken from Rikae's last comments yesterday).

Oh, and she's also the ever-helpful model citizen by quoting the rules to Legate in #110.


I wrote this before I saw Brinn's new one. Hmmmm...

[Mithalwen]

Neither of these gives me a truly suspicious impression, but my overall picture of him is just fuzzy. The way Mith went after Nogrod is strange as well. I'm confused about both of them.



With our history?

I don't know why I am accused of being jumpy ... I have nothing to be jumpy about at least as far as the game goes and I would love some specific examples ... I know I can be thin skinned but my main emotion was frustration at the Groundhog end of the day situation with just me and Nogrod around and sniping at each other....

I have only been able to skim through todays posts so far but I do wonder that if we had a Cobbler lover, if we might have a gifted Lover (as opposed to the usual Werewolf / Ordo combo). I don't know if that gets us further since obviously it is not helpful to speculate about the identity of gifteds... just a ponder.

I am sorry that I haven't been here more ... I hope to rectify that....

[Mithalwen]

Sorry just noticed the triangle lover thang .... didn't read the narration properly...

[Nerwen]

Nerwen did a similar thing too, seemingly taking offense at Rikae's playing style and lynching her 'for want of a better candidate', which I don't like.

Maybe I should have put it this way: I felt that whether Rikae was a balrog, cobbler or just a loose cannon, she was more dangerous to the miners' side than to the enemy. Note that I didn't lynch her until after she had had her chance to explain herself and had chosen to post gibberish. In other words, she asked for it.

Okay, let's look at the field. This is more like it. :) Now everyone's managed to act suspiciously at some point– except the non-contributors, who are suspicious by default.

Unfortunately, we seem to have another bandwagon starting up. Since there have been three votes to lynch Macalaure already, I propose

++Gil-Galad

No offence, Gil. But you've said some pretty strange things. Maybe it's just your way– I don't know you. Anyway, I'm mainly doing this because I don't want a repeat of yesterDay. There's no reason to have only one or two lynching prospects toDay. As I said, we're all suspect now. ;)

[Macalaure]

I don't know why I am accused of being jumpyI didn't say you're jumpy, just that the whole thing between you and Nogrod had some weirdness in it. But now that you mentioned it, yes, it does has some Groundhog Day resemblance. It's not the first game in which I found your conversation strange. :D

[Nogrod]

What I found out in a hurry...

Lhuna, Naria, Shasta and Sally may get modfired toDay. So let's not use our short time on them unless they appear.

The Might seems to be very eager to jump on the right horse all the time. It can be seen all the time. It looks like he tries to see who's got the winning horse on a Day and then expresses his agreement with that. I'd be ready to bring him forwards as a candidate toDay.

Gil I still think is innocent. Just read him.

[Mithalwen]

I didn't say you're jumpy, :D

That was Kath actually.......

[Nerwen]

What I found out in a hurry...

Lhuna, Naria, Shasta and Sally may get modfired toDay. So let's not use our short time on them unless they appear.

Good to hear, because I had been considering voting for one of the rank outsiders. Out of curiosity, where did you hear that? It's not in the admin thread.

[Nogrod]

I'd offer The Might, Kath or Mac to the fore.

What do you say?

If Mac is innocent I'd look very closely the relationship between Legate and The Might as it looks like Legate handles him with soft gloves and backs away from suspecting him so much as to vote for different reasons while still making an appearance that he suspects him generally.

[Nogrod]

Good to hear, because I had been considering voting for one of the rank outsiders. Out of curiosity, where did you hear that? It's not in the admin thread.If one doesn't vote or post in two Days in a row. None of them voted yesterDay and none has voted toDay neither.

[Mithalwen]

, where did you hear that? It's not in the admin thread.

Parental prerogative I suspect.....

[Brinniel]

The Might seems to be very eager to jump on the right horse all the time. It can be seen all the time. It looks like he tries to see who's got the winning horse on a Day and then expresses his agreement with that. I'd be ready to bring him forwards as a candidate toDay.
Well yes, and I've stated my suspicions about him too, as he has been troubling me all Day. Legate almost seemed to let him off the hook only because he's a newbie, but I wouldn't be so quick to do that.

It's a toss-up because I don't exactly see Mac as innocent either....his posts just get weirder and weirder. The only thing that holds me back is that I worry this will be another repeat of yesterDay and we don't need that.

My vote will either be for Might or Mac.

[Nogrod]

Hopefully five votes coming in still.

Mac3
Gil1

Where are you hiding people? Comments now! Please...

[Macalaure]

....his posts just get weirder and weirder.Could you possibly make this more vague? Would you care to specify? ;)

And is really nobody following me in my suspicion on Brinniel? *shakes head*

Gil is the only co-bandwaggon so far. Even though he voted me, he's also one of the few who's suspicious of Brin, so I would only vote him if I really had to save myself.

I understand the suspicions about the Might, but I hesitate because much of it comes from Nogrod and Brin...

[Nogrod]

I'd agree with Brinn as I could try both Mac and The Might.

Choosing The Might might clear some issues with Legate as well (if he is a balrog I'd bet Legate is as well).

[Nogrod]

And is really nobody following me in my suspicion on Brinniel? *shakes head*It'd take time which we don't seem to have right now.

[Naria]

Sorry, I really need to get used to playing ww again.

I see that Mac is garnering toDay's votes. I'm not finding Mac to be overly suspicous right now. He is acting a bit odd and I will take the chatter into consideration if alive next Day. So I'll vote for the newbie that has bothered me for a bit now.

++Nerwen

Her last post is just...hmm harsh? You think m'dear that one asks to be lynched, then I think that you are asking for it. Doesn't make sense? Well neither does your reasoning for your two votes. Rikae asked for it and now you are willing to kill someone else just for the heck of it? IF you truly think someone is guilty then by all means jump on the wagon, but if you have someone else in mind that you are truly suspicous of then put that person's name down. Not because you are opening the playing field.

I have some other points to make about her and the other newbies that I read previous to my last post, but time is of the essence right now.

[Nogrod]

Let's try it then...

++ The Might

EDIT: X'd with Naria!

[Mithalwen]

Good to hear, because I had been considering voting for one of the rank outsiders. Out of curiosity, where did you hear that? It's not in the admin thread.

Kath is making me uneasy ... but that may be history ...don't quite see whey Mac is so suspicious but I accept that my grasp on the situation may be awry.....


Noone is really figuring on my radar too much apart from usual suspects ... can I ever trust Nogrod, Kath or gil ..?

[Brinniel]

Either Mac is a desperate balrog or sorely mistaken.

Choosing The Might might clear some issues with Legate as well (if he is a balrog I'd bet Legate is as well).
Hmm...the idea of a Were-Might and a Were-Legate as his mentor is a bit scary...

[Mithalwen]

No time to think .... don't need a new candidate ..

++ Gil galad

[Brinniel]

Ack...we can't spread out these votes anymore...

Urgh, which one: Might or Mac? I don't know.

[Macalaure]

The Might is both more suspicious to me and more likely to overtake me in the number of votes.

++The Might

I hate to vote newbies so early, though.

x-ed with Mith's vote

[Nogrod]

Mac3
Gil2
Nerwen1
Might2

[Mithalwen]

Vote swiftly or it will be Mac by default

[Brinniel]

I need more time to think....

++Might

Ah, well.

[Mithalwen]

A positive decision is better than letting it happen usually...

[Thinlómien]

Mac is lynched. Role revelation and narration to follow.

Special people, you may start your nightly activities if you wish...

[Brinniel]

Well, I don't know if that made much difference....

[satansaloser2005]

Dang it! I got here as soon as I could. I swear, I'll never get to vote if my schedule keeps up this way. *shuts up*

[Thinlómien]

Lhunardawen was banging her head against the wall. "I'm too tired, I'm too tired, I'm too tired...", she hummed in an endless mantra. Bang. Bang. Bang. Her head hit the stony wall again and again. The banging grew louder until it was swallowed by Lhuna's screaming: "Ouch! Ouch! Ouch!" The villagers heard a huge cracking sound and there was blood everywhere. Lhuna had smashed her own head so hard against the wall that her skull had broken.
"Messy", commented Shasta, summarizing it all quite nicely.

~*~

In a long and noisy acclamation, Legate, The Might and Gil-Galad managed to be the noisiest and so it was agreed that Macalaure would be killed.

”Killed? Me?” he asked, ”Oh, come on...”

”We're entirely serious”, the villagers told him.
”Oh, a pity”, he said, making an elegant turn on his heels and casting off his garb at the same time.

”No! We don't want to see Mac Uncloaked! Gandalf was terrible enough!” Mith wailed, but it was too late. Where the miner Macalaure had stood, now a mighty shape of flame and shadow rose to fill the room.

The villagers screamed. Mac the Balrog with Swing smiled down to them. Then, he started singing in a groovy voice:

”Wie sie geh'n und steh'n
wie sie dich anseh'n
und schon öffnen sich Tasche und Herz
und dann kaufst du 'n Ring und 'n Nerz
ein lasziver Blick
und schon ändert sich deine Politik
kein Boss und kein Actionheld
kein Staat und kein Mafiageld
Balrogs regiern die Welt”

Walking moonwalk, doing pirouettes and setting off his show with gorgeous pyrotechnics, his show no doubt captured every single villager's attention. Actually, after the fantastic show, they no longer harbored thoughts of killing this genious showman. Why, it would have been a great loss to the world. Instead, they applauded and whistled. This was definitely the best show seen in Gondolin in ages.

”Bravo! Bravo!” shouted Naria.
”Oh, he's so amazing” Nerwen sighed.
”A true star”, Kath agreed.
”I wish I was as good as he is”, Nogrod said with a regretful tone.

By that time, two enthusisatic fangirls had already surrounded Mac with Swing.
”Mac! Mac!” Sally shouted, ”the hairy balrog!”
”Oh, but do you balrogs have hair?” Brinn asked, her eyes shining.
"Do you think I'm some kind of a werewolf or so, eh?" Macalaure asked, insulted, "I'll go back to Angband, it seems here even my fans are all second class!"

He turned his back to the miners to hide his tears. There was nothing left of his great show anymore. He shambled away, humming a sad tune: "I'm a poor lonesome balrog..."

That was the last what was ever heard of him in Gondolin.

~*~

Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - killed by a wingless balrog on Night1
Rikae (ordo) - ate too many cobblers on Day1
Volo (Maeglin the Cobbler Lover) - dropped by a winged balrog on Night2
Lhunardawen (ordo) - committed suicide by smashing her own head on Day2
Macalaure (The Balrog with Swing) - left after being insulted by his low-class fans on Day2

Living
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Naria
Nerwen
Nogrod
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
The Might

Night3 starts.
Like I said, you gifteds, balrogsies and lovers may now do what you will.

[Thinlómien]

The Might is on the three-peaked mountain. He has a feeling he’s been here before. When he looks back he sees the lights of the city of Gondolin. But something pulls him forward, some unknown force. He can't resist. He wants to stop but his feet don't obey him. He’s going deeper to the dark. He’s afraid. They are waiting for him, as if summoned by his fear. They feel him approaching, they hear the blood pounding in his ears, they smell his sweat. He’s trying to turn back, but even if he could, it would be too late. There's one behind him, there's one before him. He stops. They come closer. Flame and shadow, shadow and flame, merging into one, parting into two. The Might screams.

~*~

Through a small hole in the roof, the miners could see a piece of sky. When the day dawned a bright star, never seen before, lingered above Gondolin after all the other stars had gone.

Weeping for the innocent little boy, the miners sang a song:

“Twinkle, twinkle, little star,
How I wonder what you are!
Up above the world so high,
Like a diamond in the sky!
Twinkle, twinkle, little star,
How I wonder what you are!”

And two of them wept more than the others (and two less than the others, but another one of them was a very good singer).

~*~

Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - killed by a wingless balrog on Night1
Rikae (ordo) - ate too many cobblers on Day1
Volo (Maeglin the Cobbler Lover) - dropped by a winged balrog on Night2
Lhunardawen (ordo) - committed suicide by smashing her own head on Day2
Macalaure (The Balrog with Swing) - left after being insulted by his low-class fans on Day2
The Might (Eärendil the Seer) - became the miners' shining star on Night3

Living
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Naria
Nerwen
Nogrod
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin

Day 3 begins. Stop your nightly activities and start talking immediately! :Merisu:

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So we have lost a Seer. That is a large setback. There are two main questions that come to my mind now:

1. Has he posted anything on the thread that could be useful to us? Any hints of possible balrogs he dreamt about during the Nights?

2. One thing that could be easily overlooked, why was he killed? Did the balrogs somehow guess his role? Or was it just a luck from their part? What were the motives? That may help in revealing the identity of the balrogs.

There were three nights. First before the game started, second after Day 1 and third after Day 2. On each of these nights (unless he forgot, which I doubt) TM aka Eärendil, may his light ever shine, has Seen someone. From Night 3, unfortunately, there's no information to be gathered. But if we can, we should try to conclude of whom he dreamt the Nights before.

To the second question, TM was, I believe, suspected quite enough for the balrogs to be left alive to create a possible subject for the lynch for the others. Or what do you others think about that? Whatever the case, I'd say we look for something that could have led the balrogs to think that he's a Seer. Who knows what we may learn by that - if such a thing exists, that is.

Now to the first question. But for this I really need to look through TM's posts.

[Nogrod]

We got a balrog but we lost the seer. Great and sad at the same time.

But how did they pick him? Did he leave any clues?

I have read The Might's posts once again and there are a few things I'd like to share.

I said yesterDay that The Might looked like he was betting on the winning horse all the time and thence looked suspicious. I must say he really did then. But if you are indeed the seer you don't wish to get suspected. So that's undesrstandable.

With a closer look I made an interesting find. The Might had actually talked just about a few people. And there are interesting wordings & changes in his attitudes.

On Day1 he speculated as an example Lhuna to make his point of reverse-reverse-reverse psychology and agreed with Brinn bantering / serious posting -issue. He said Rikae had a special way of starting a game and voted me on "Gondolindrim instinct".

He began Day2 by the following:
Well, I must admit I feel I've been wrong about my last vote. I actually doubt Nogrod is a bad guy right now, just kinda feeling that. Yes, know it sounds somewhat stupid to change my mind so fast, but I hope I won't be wrong about this.
Nor do I think that Legate is bad. Looking through their past posts it doesn't seem there is any planning happening.
Hmmm...not sure what to believe of many others
Now my gut reaction is that he had dreamt of Legate on Night1 (yes he had a dream on Night1) and of me on Night2. That would fit nicely what he said.

His second post offers us a new possibility for interpretation. He jumps pretty fast on my suspicion on Mac - which was a good case *gloats just a bit* - but was just a well grounded suspicion. So was it that he had indeed had dreamt of Mac and was happy to see someone giving him a ride to make a case against a balrog known to him? After that he continued hammering Mac down (possibly strengthening the latter interpretation of his dreams). Then he goes defencive. He tells he had suspected Mac already on Day1 and that he feels myself and Legate are innocents.

Then he votes Mac with the following:I am quite certain about my vote and also am suspicious about Kath, but I'm not entirely sure about that one.I'm quite sure what he said about Kath was not seer knowledge but his thoughts as a villager. But the wording "I am quite certain" looks like he knew indeed.

So what should we think about this?

Back in a minute.

EDIT: X'd with Legate
EDIT2: changed italics to underlining as the quotes are in italics anyway and thence can't be seen...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

First one thing. Good to see that Nog had posted before me, because I was waiting for that. I had my opinion formed already, and thus the following is made without any influence of his post on mine and, of course, his is without any influence of mine on his. So, TM's posts, with two addittions in italics from me:

DAY 1

#9
Says absolutely nothing.

#19
Explains why he said nothing. The only person he mentions is Lhuna who, as we know, is already dead, and he says nothing of concern to us.

#21
Agrees with Brinn on that it's better to say something that has little or no value than saying completely nothing. Says that Rikae's way of starting the game is very "special :D".

#50
Says that he didn't want to seem confusing (when people say he is). Says that except Rikae's vote nothing that could make him think whether someone is a balrog or not has happened. Says that he's going to "follow his Gondolindrim instinct and vote". Votes Nogrod. (At that time, there were four votes for Rikae by Rikae, Brinn, Gil and Volo and one vote for Nogrod by Kath.)

DAY 2

#86
Says he actually doubts Nogrod is a bad guy. To be precise, he adds:
Well, I must admit I feel I've been wrong about my last vote. I actually doubt Nogrod is a bad guy right now, just kinda feeling that. Yes, know it sounds somewhat stupid to change my mind so fast, but I hope I won't be wrong about this.

Also says that he does not think I (Legate) am bad and that it does not seem that I am planning something with Nogrod.

This to me looks as if he has Seen Nogrod at Night 2. This quick change of mind on Nogrod could also be something that the Balrogs may have noticed and thus, attacked him.

#91
Says that Nogrod's points in analysis of Mac are interesting and convincing, is looking forward to what Mac has to say.

#95
After a few posts from Mac, TM concludes that he's indeed suspicious.

#117
Notices many people regard him as bad guy due to the fact he agrees with me and Nogrod about Mac. Says that he had his own suspicions on Mac from the start of the 2nd day.
However, I had had my own suspicions about Mac from the start of the 2nd day.
Now this sentence may also look like saying "I dreamt of Mac toNight."
Votes Mac (after there was only one vote before, by me, also for Mac). Says that he is quite certain about his vote and adds that he is suspicious about Kath, but not entirely sure on that one.

And that was the last from him.

Please everyone make your own conclusions based on this. I don't want any of my opinions to influence you.

Now, as you see, there are two points of mine in italics that are contradictory. TM's change of opinion on Nogrod at the beginning of Day 2 is indeed shocking. However, what about his suspicion on Mac? That also arose, as he says, from the beginning of Day 2 (Day 2! Not Day 1, as Nogrod says!!!). Now what? He couldn't have two dreams at night. But after the situation on Day 1, when he voted Nog, I'd guess it's only logical to conclude that he voted him. Could it be that he concluded that no way, if Nog is innocent, Mac could be as well? Possibly. This is why he was so sure. Because, I believe had he dreamt of Mac on Day 1 already, he would've voted him, and not Nog, that Day.

But one thing remains - whom he dreamt of on Day 1? Well, given TM is a newbie here, and I daresay of all the players he's probably the most familiar with me (from the outside), it could be that with nothing else to guide him, he chose to dream of me on Day 1. Well, then, I am innocent, of course. But he never mentioned me on Day 1. In fact, there are only a few people whom he mentioned on Day 1. Nevertheless, one thing is undiscutable: TM certainly did not dream of Nog on Day 1. Had Nog been innocent, he wouldn't have voted for him. Had Nog been a balrog, TM wouldn't have changed his opinion of him on Day 2.

[Nogrod]

I'm bent to to believing that the balrogs thought The Might had dreamt of Mac.

That means he couldn't have dreamt of both me and Legate. So he trusted one of us and dreamt of another. I'm not too happy to speculate with this any more as we should leave the balrogs some hard decisions to the next Night.

What I kind of wonder right now is whether his last point about Kath was the thing that brought the alarm bells ringing with the balrogs or was his confidence on Mac enough? I wouldn't be surprised if Kath indeed is a balrog and they just had to eliminate him because they feared that he was getting too effective.

I need to think this a bit more while I pack my things for an early wake up tomorrow. I will vote very early (around 3-4AM GMT) before I leave for the airport. But I'll try to make a few posts before I go to sleep.

EDIT: X'd with Legate, again... ;)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Now, what did TM leave us here as a legacy? Probably nothing to point us towards a balrog, as it seems that the only balrog he could have eventually dreamt of was lynched. But even then I believe his vote for Mac was influenced by his trust put in Nogrod.

In contrary to Nog, I believe whatever he said about Kath in his last post does not necessarily have to be a reason for his kill. Remember that once the balrogs learned that TM is a Seer, they would have attacked him whether he was close to revealing one of them or not. So I'd be careful before making conclusions like this.

I have to think. Will be back soon.

[Mithalwen]

Sorry I am here for a little while ...I think TM might have left a clue... I must look back but when I was thinking about the game this morning I wondered if he was the seer and hoped that if he were that the Ranger might have protected him :( ...

but I can't quite remember what it was .....must look... sorry to be useless...

[Kath]

Losing the Seer, well that sucks. And the candidates for dreaming are Legate, Mac and Nog.

I thought at first it was possible that The Might dreamt of Nog on Night 1 and found him to be evil, but the turnaround on Day 2 puts that theory down and, depressingly for me, means I might have to let go my suspicion of Noggie, as such a switch does look like The Might dreamt of him and found him innocent. Though, it's good really as an innocent Noggie is an asset to the village. And then Day 2 it looks like he dreamt of Legate and found him innocent as well. I don't think he dreamt of Mac, I think he just found him suspicious. If you look at his post where he explains his vote he states that he is happy with being suspicious of Mac because Legate and Noggie are. It looks like he's decided to side with those he knows to be innocent.

Oh and something from yesterDay. Brinn, I'm sorry that you felt I was 'going on' at Nogrod but I would rather be accused of that than of letting a balrog walk the village unmolested. I've decided I don't want to do analyses this game, so I'm trying something else but still trying to helpful. My apologies if it isn't coming across that way.

[Nogrod]

In contrary to Nog, I believe whatever he said about Kath in his last post does not necessarily have to be a reason for his kill. Remember that once the balrogs learned that TM is a Seer, they would have attacked him whether he was close to revealing one of them or not. I didn't say she necessarily is a balrog...
I kind of wonder right now is whether his last point about Kath was the thing that brought the alarm bells ringing with the balrogs or was his confidence on Mac enough?

So I'd be careful before making conclusions like this.I am most careful. Just check my wording above. Now don't make me suspect you on this moment Legate. That's the last thing I need in the RL packing I'm in.

EDIT: X'd with Kath this time

[Nogrod]

Gah, forgot the mid-part of what I meant to say...

Remember that once the balrogs learned that TM is a Seer, they would have attacked him whether he was close to revealing one of them or not.Darn you balrog you or then you're just somehow losing your grip here! So the balrogs "learned" that The Might was the seer? Right? Now how do you know that my friend? You said something like "we should be careful before making conclusions". :D

Maybe it was because it was no conclusion but personal knowledge you just slipped away there?

Okay. I'm not sure I wish to press on this.

But you really make me wonder Legate. You do, even if I'm inclined to think you innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh dear. To have lost the seer is quite a blow. No doubt the balrogs are feeling quite proud of themselves for their slaying last night.

I have to be to work in a bit, but I'll be back in a few hours and will post when I get back for the evening. Definitely a lot to consider in Might's posts. *wanders off mumbling and contemplating*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I didn't say she necessarily is a balrog...

I am most careful. Just check my wording above. Now don't make me suspect you on this moment Legate. That's the last thing I need in the RL packing I'm in.

I didn't say you say she necessarily is a balrog. I was speaking generally, not about you - that we should be careful with quick conclusions. What you said is a matter that's good to be considered, but in no way apparent.

Pack up quick, so that you can fully focus on posting and we avoid things like that, that's really the last we need.

EDIT: after seeing Nog's second post. :eek: No, I am not saying anything anymore. Nog, really, either the packing is making you nervous or you are a balrog after all. Let's stop it! That's really the last thing we need.

Anyway, I probably said all I had in mind. I'm waiting for others to post. Till then, bye.

[Mithalwen]

I am not sure if this is the hint that the balrogs picked up on or whether it was his change of opinion on Nogrod. But the Might Said "See now" in his first post and uses "look" a lot ... this isn't as mad as it sounds. Some people are visually orientated, others aural or emotional and their language can reflect this - an aurally orientated person might have said "It sounds as if.".. an emotional one " I feel that"
... but it could have been an indication that he was the seer.

My suspicions of Nogrod has lessened - I get the feeling that the wolves were untroubled about who died save perhaps Macalaure who might have personal reasons for not voting Rikae. It was certainly quiet save for those who we know about or who have possibly been cleared (Noggin or legate..)
but I am uneasy about Brinniel because of her reluctance to vote last night..... torn perhaps between which would look worse to jump on the bandwaggon and seal a fellow fiends fate or not to vote?

I also am beginning to suspect Nerwen ... Macalaure is careful to mention her in his Day one summaries a couple of times, and she makes a big deal of being fair to Rikae, yesterday she attempts to widen the field from Macalaure ...

Could be a flying under the radar wolf?

Not terribly certain of any of this but about ready to go for a while ... I won't have ot vote before tomorrow lunchtime at the earliest so I hope there is some reaction to read.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, I'm here, again.

Will someone please tell me how long before execution, so I don't mess up and not vote (again)? :(

[Kath]

I think you have 21 and a half hours until the deadline, so call it 21 hours to make sure you're back in time. :)

[Nogrod]

Well, whatever we have talked this far it is my main concern toDay - with the lack of time I have with this - that we are fast losing vocal players and that makes the game boring and easier for the balrogs.

I'd rather a boring game than a higher chance of being slaughtered in my sleep.I do disagree wholeheartedly. I'd rather lose a magnificient game than win a lousy one...

Okay, I saw your edit Legate. Enough for me too. But in case I'm dead soon and the balrogs somehow leave you alive Night after Night, I wish to make it known that some people should look at you and Kath as well. I started this Day pretty confident you were innocent, even dreamt of (thence it would have been N1 Legate, N2 Mac - that was the scheme I myself believed to be true untill you posted...), but there's the uncertainty with The Might's total turn around with me on the beginning of Day2 (and it's perfectly possible that he dreamt of Mac the first Night but didn't dare to raise the issue as not to reveal himself - there was little to actually say against Mac on Day1 even if you and I noted there was something wrong in him but we couldn't argue about it either).

But back to the issue.

We need the talkers now with all these absences both experienced and foretold by people.

And it's also statistically quite believable that we have at least one - if not two - balrogs among the quieter folk.

Let's not kill this game by leaving alive only people who post once a Day - if even that much.

And we have other leads as well.

Mith said she was uneasy about Brinn. That I think is a case in point. Not the least because Mac made something of a show with his "attack" on Brinn in the end of yesterDay. I think there was no actual threat Brinn would have been lynched at that time of the Day - and if she was Mac would then be alive himself. So that could a nice balrog-on-balrog thing?

Okay. I need a break to finish my packing. I'll drop in before I go to sleep.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right. I plan to use the time I have toDay (resp. tomorrow my time) to make some analyses of all people, or at least those that are more suspicious to me. Only from what I gathered by skimming through the threads, I:

- am trusting Nogrod now
- believe Gil innocent
- definitely have to take a look at Brinn
- will look at Sally, but I believe there is very little to collect
- will look at Kath
- will look at Mith
and finally, believe Nerwen could be a balrog.

Shasta&Naria seem more dead than alive, so I'm skipping them completely - it's no use. Otherwise, I hope I have not missed anyone.

Now, why Nerwen. I was going through Mac's posts and compared some things. I will send what I found in the following, separate post.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

What follows is an analysis of Nerwen's posts, along with comparing some of them to Mac's and why I think she could be a balrog.

Nerwen's posts:

#23
Nerwen starts with "Greeting, fellow miners." and such stuff in a way that reminds me of "Hello, I am one of you, I be your friend." Then she says - no, I have to quote it all:
In principle, I'm inclined to suspect the "quiet ones". After all, if I were a werebalrog I'd be lying low at this point, waiting for somebody to accuse an innocent miner so I could jump on the bandwagon.
First sentence: saying "my tactics is going to be that I suspect people who do this and this" is a very good baddie-program, because one can hide behind this. Second sentence: this is rightaway saying in the same paragraph "If I were a werebalrog, I'd be doing something else than I'm doing now", so logical conclusion - I am not a balrog. Now that's a nice cover.

Then she continues a little bit safer and says that of course silence is not incriminating yet, because not everyone could post.

Then she says Rikae maybe diverts suspicion by this, which may be very nicely using the vote Rikae made on herself to emphasise the fact that there can be sinister intentions behind Rikae's self-vote.

Other posts are not much better.

#33
In response to Mac - she speaks about Rikae (meaning she does not know her style of playing):
Well, I don't really know any of you people yet, but I agree that it doesn't make sense for the cobbler to try and get lynched at this point.
She speaks about Rikae in particular, but that's also saying "I don't know you people, and especially I don't know you, Mac, to whom I am responding". That's a way for a balrog to cover that she knows her accomplice from Night talks.

#53
Votes Rikae, but in a way of proving how honest she is:
Look, Rikae, I wasn't going to do anything until you'd had a chance to speak for yourself.
Then she makes another safe-comment:
I can't say that you or anyone else has done anything that definitely says "balrog" to me– but time is running out. In the absence of a better candidate– [votes Rikae] Saying that you do something because you don't have better candidate gives you the chance to vote without explaining your motives, sooner or later. You just say you didn't know. So if anything, this could be a good post for a balrog.

Day 2:
#103
Explains the swiftness of her vote the Day before. Nothing much to be said about that.

# 127
That's her last post and also her vote for Day 2.
Unfortunately, we seem to have another bandwagon starting up. Since there have been three votes to lynch Macalaure already, I propose [votes Gil-Galad]
Now this is mainly what made me think she is the balrog. Because Mac seemed to gather votes far too fast, she tried to save him by starting another bandwagon. Or whatever, only that she would not vote for him, because there were many votes to come still and voting Mac would 1) be safe bandwagoning from her, 2) will heighten the danger that was upon her comrade.

And what said Mac on Nerwen?
#31
Only a short sentence sideways:
Good points about her [Rikae] by Nerwen and Legate.

Day 2:
#116
Says he trusts her (names her among the few, that being Kath, Mith and Nerwen).

#137
Does not mention Nerwen, but speaks about his situation. I mention it because it was after Nerwen voted for Gil. It was Mac 3, Gil 1 at that time.
Gil is the only co-bandwaggon so far. Even though he voted me, he's also one of the few who's suspicious of Brin, so I would only vote him if I really had to save myself.

All in all: I think Mac was very careful towards Nerwen. They mention each other in positive sense, but maintaining some sort of distance - enough distance not to be too personal towards each other.

All right. So that's it. I'm saying rightaway that I got sort of carried off when I was writing this and that I did that with a zeal. But the zeal was provoked by the finds I made and that I did when I was still absolutely calm and undecided. Simply, this post is looking at everything from the most suspecting angle. What makes me wary is the fact that I once made a mistake, similar analysis with similar zeal and it ended wrong. But now it seems quite probable to me that Nerwen could be a balrog. You must judge for yourselves. Now, I am a little tired, so I'm going to sleep. Will be back in about 8 or 10 hours.

Oh, and, this thing also makes me think better of Mith, who mentioned Nerwen as suspicious on her own account (#168). If Nerwen shows to be guilty, then I'd say Mith is leaning to innocence.

[Nogrod]

I'm saying rightaway that I got sort of carried off when I was writing this and that I did that with a zeal. But the zeal was provoked by the finds I made and that I did when I was still absolutely calm and undecided. Simply, this post is looking at everything from the most suspecting angle.That's the way it works... one gets pretty confident one is right. :rolleyes:

I find this a hard nut to crack. Nerwen could be read as innocent and a caring one (she indeed started a alternate-voting pattern which we needed after only Mac had gathered votes). But the difference between voting Rikae as "there were no better candidates" to her quite proactive idea of starting a new lynchline could be interpreted quite balroggishly.

Also your points on how Mac traeted her do raise suspicions.

Mith's easy leap for Gil I do find a bit odd as well.

Also it's interesting why Mac chose The Might instead of Gil... Looks like at least he thought he knew... or thought he knew

Okay. I need a few hours of sleep.

Please post people!

I'm pretty lost right now as I don't have time to look back with care people like Shasta or Sally.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Phew, 21 hours. Okay, I'll go back and read some stuff. :)

[Kath]

Um, Shasta you know that time was from when you last posted right? From now you've only about 17 hours I think.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay. So I like Legate's points on Nerwen, but I'd rather go back and read for myself. Reading up one or two posts, Nogrod seems to be rather defensive of Nerwen. More later.

[Nerwen]

I guess I'm bound to reply to this. Legate, is (wilfully?) distorting my comments.

1. My "for want of a better candidate" comment on Rikae did not mean: "I think you're innocent but I'm going to lynch you anyway". It meant: "I'm voting against you because you're the only one I suspect at this point, in preference to some random person who has done nothing to arouse my suspicions."

On the whole I thought she was more likely to be the cobbler than the balrog– or if not, that she was acting as a de facto cobbler, and as such was a liability.

(That suggestion originally came from Legate, by the way.)

What am I, new here, to make of people telling me, "Oh, it's just her playing style"? How am I to know whether to believe you?

Once again– I voted for Rikae because she was the only one I suspected at all.

I may have cast the first suspicion on her, but it was other people who built that up into a case in my absence. I seem to recall Legate being one of the prime movers, but I'll have to go back and check.

Because Mac seemed to gather votes far too fast, she tried to save him by starting another bandwagon.

2. I did not "try to save" Mac. I suspected a number of people; he was just one of them. Gil was another. (I now think he's innocent.) It was looking to me as though we were going to get a repeat of the "no trace" voting of the first Day, so I decided to widen the field. As simple as that. (I was actually following Nogrod's lead, in case no-one has noticed.)

3. Legate, in his list of my posts, has left out one. He says I only made two posts. I made three.

The one he has left out (#108) was the one where I analysed Volo's posts and suggested his death might point to Macalaure and/or Gil-Galad. Someone– Kath, I think– was dismissive of my effort, saying that Volo hadn't said enough to be worth considering. However, we now know Mac was indeed a balrog. So... why did Legate not mention that post?

Oversight?

Deliberate oversight?

Legate, with his "weasel words" and twisting of facts, is starting to smell balroggish to me.

[Nogrod]

I'm wishing to see Nerwen alive also toMorrow. I'm somewhat happy with her reaction.

I've just enough time to vote... :(

From the enigmatic people I find most suspicious

++ Sally


I'm not altogether happy with my vote but as I need to fly now I'll have to settle with it.

I hope to meet you toMorrow, hopefully with one balrog less among us.

[Brinniel]

Of any clues that The Might might've left us, it seems most obvious that he dreamt of Nogrod Night 2. The way he went from suspecting and voting for him Day 1 to completely trusting him on Day 2...it only makes sense. So for now, I'm ready to believe Nogrod's innocent. As for who Might dreamt of the first Night, it's not so clear. I agree it is possible he dreamt of Mac. Though he gathered some suspicion, Mac clearly was not going to be lynched Day 1 and if Might had voted him, it would just been a throwaway vote. So, he went with his next suspect at the time: Nogrod. Of course, it is quite possible he dreamt of someone else entirely Night 1, but we can't know for sure.

Legate is a complete toss-up right now. Either he's innocent, or he's a balrog taking advantage of the fact that the seer thought Legate was innocent. For the time being, I find Legate leaning more on the innocent side, mainly because I haven't really had a reason to suspect him before. But I won't eliminate the possibility he could be a baddie.

Kath I remain suspicious of for her ongoing arguments against Nogrod the previous Days. She really did keep going on about him, and said relatively little about anyone else. I don't recall she even mentioned Mac, who was obviously receiving the most suspicion at the time. And upon everyone discovering that Nogrod is most likely innocent, any balrog could say, "Whoops, my bad."

Legate makes some excellent points against Nerwen, and I'm beginning to think she's not as innocent as I once thought. I would like to take a closer look at her, though it will have to be done later.

About our "enigmas": There's so little substance from them right now, I feel like voting for one would have to come from wild guess. But even scarier is letting a possible balrog among Sally and Shasta slip under the radar. I'm still not sure what to do about them.

I also need to take a look at Mac's posts and see if it's possible to pick up anything from them.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hey, I /am/ trying to be more active. Honest! :(

Anyway, I'm not good at in-depth analysis. It's hard for me to type out things like that.

Some mental notes I made, reading back through the thread:

It's pretty clear that Might dreamt of Nogrod on Night 2, as has been said. However, Legate is a mystery to me. Helpful, yet if Nerwen is to be believed, a bit word-twisty. I think I'll go back and look at him in particular.

[Nerwen]

At the risk of protesting too much, I'd like to address the “Nerwen lynched Rikae! She must be evil!” argument in a bit more detail.

Seriously, what is going on? I did not lynch Rikae all by my lonesome.

Rikae was lynched by the following seven people, in order of voting:

Rikae.
Brinniel.
Gil-Galad.
Volo.
Nerwen.
Legate of Amon Lanc.
Nogrod.

I've re-read the Day 1 posts, and it looks as though a lot of the push to lynch Rikae came from Legate of Amon Lanc himself. Remember his "Rikae's a liar" business?

Legate is, at the very least, being a bit of a hypocrite.

I'm not accusing him of balrog-hood at this point, even though he's making what I think is a very dubious case against me. He may have, as he says, got carried away– if so, I feel that what set him off was not really anything I did, but the fact that Macalaure stated his belief in my innocence, more than once.

Well yes, that does look bad for me. Except– would Mac have been so vocal in support of a fellow balrog? Remember, no-one was accusing me then. There was no reason for him to defend me. My own opinion is that his comments about me were simply a blind.

I will be back later with some more general comments.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, I've gone over pages 1 and 2 with a fine tooth-comb and I must say that Legate and Brinniel are seeming the most suspicious to me at the moment.

I'm going to side with Nerwen, at least for the moment; the lynch of Rikae Day 1... well, it seems to me that Legate pushed it more than Nerwen did.

Also, a statement of Brinniel's discomfits me. On page 2. I believe it was (I'm bad at quotes, sorry) the statement about "not wanting to risk Rikae coming back on Day 2 and sounding innocent", which translated to me as "not wanting Rikae coming back on Day 2 and defending herself".

[satansaloser2005]

Legate seems to be garnering quite a bit of conversation today. My take on the matter? I can't decide if he's balroggy or if he's just stirring up the conversation for the rest of us. My suspicion still lies with Brinniel. I can't quite put my finger on it, but she just appears to be....what's the word....odd. Only word I can think of right now.

Alas, I need to cast my vote now, so that I ensure my ability to do so at all today. If I am incorrect in my suspicions or if I am lynched today by some drastic turn of events, I have but to wish you all good luck in your balrog-finding endeavors. Here goes:

++Brinniel


I'll try to get back in the morning (my time) and post some more discussion. Sorry I've been so short postwise. Both the day phases have taken place on the days when I am busiest. Anyway I'm going to head off to the wonderful world of sleep so I can get up and try to post in the morning :)

[Gil-Galad]

i totally agree for Brinniel being the next logical choice as a balrog, her subtle defense of Mac last day shows to me that she was indeed trying to protect him.

sorry for my shortness i will have a longer one tomorrow when i am no longer under the weather.

++Brinniel

in case i miss it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm about to go to bed, and there's a good possibility that I'll sleep right through the deadline, so I'll vote now. As there are already two votes on Brinniel, and there's been some lamentation on earlier days about only the one choice of lynching, I'll go with my other suspicion, and let those more informed than I make the choice.

++ Legate

Good night, everyone.

[Naria]

After getting really really confused over Noggy's and Legate's posts and reading the confusion in the last few; I have decided to give my take on things. I don't think that TM died in vain. I least in my opinion he gave us two people we can trust.

I believe that TM dreamt of Legate on pre-game Night one. He then dreamt of Mac on Night one, then dreamt of Nog Night two. I got a friggin headache trying to figure out the confusion over why Legate was being mentioned as being an ordo. So I went back and looked for the post that would solidify this. And I believe post #117 where he states that "he and Legate", meaning Nogrod and Legate, "were and are innocent". TMalso puts all his trust in both of them. Which if he really wasn't sure about one of them, just going by gut feeling(as some have mentioned), then as a Seer he wouldn't have been so trusting.

I don't know if that made any sense at all(I have a hard time getting my point across in alot of RL situations too), but it has cleared my mind about Legate.

[Brinniel]

On Nerwen. Some comments that caught my attention:

I'm not accusing Rikae, just pointing out that we shouldn't be assuming she's not guilty.
This seems very safe. Pointing out to others that we should suspect Rikae, without trying to sound fully suspicious herself.

She voted fifth for Rikae (Nogrod only had 2 at the time) for the reason that there wasn't anyone better. Very safe indeed.

Post 108 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=536070&postcount=108) she seemingly tries to be helpful analysing Volo the cobbler. Yet, while she may seem helpful in doing this, in reality there wasn't ever much information to take from Volo. She even states this:
This may reflect Volo's beliefs about the identity of the werebalrogs– but as he knew no more than the other miners, what he thought isn't all that relevant.
Why analyse if what he thought wasn't all that relevant? Perhaps she is a balrog just trying to confuse us...

She votes for Gil only for the sake of avoiding a bandwagon. She doesn't really seem to have a strong case against Gil in the first place. All she says is:
No offence, Gil. But you've said some pretty strange things. Maybe it's just your way– I don't know you.

ToDay in Post 178, Nerwen becomes entirely defensive of Legate's accusations saying:
I guess I'm bound to reply to this. Legate, is (wilfully?) distorting my comments.
At the end of the post, she continues:
Legate, with his "weasel words" and twisting of facts, is starting to smell balroggish to me.
Accusing her accuser. Now that's what worries me most about her.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Said I was going to bed, decided I couldn't sleep.

Why does that seem odd to you, Brinn? This is an honest question. Maybe I'm just new-ish at this still, but it seems to me that Nerwen defending herself against Legate is what anyone would do.

[Brinniel]

I believe that TM dreamt of Legate on pre-game Night one. He then dreamt of Mac on Night one, then dreamt of Nog Night two.
Wait...that doesn't make any sense. There have only been three possible Nights to dream so far. Night 1 was pre-game basically, if you consider pre-game prior to a Day phase. Then came Night 2. And Night 3, we'll never know who The Might dreamt of. There's no way he could've dreamt of three different people before Day 2.

her subtle defense of Mac last day shows to me that she was indeed trying to protect him.
When was I trying to defend Mac? He was one of my top suspects...

Why does that seem odd to you, Brinn?his is an honest question. Maybe I'm just new-ish at this still, but it seems to me that Nerwen defending herself against Legate is what anyone would do.
Mainly because not only does she defend herself, but she turns it around on Legate. Legate accuses her, and suddenly he is suspicious.

It's good to see our enigmas are at least trying be a little more vocal toDay than previous Days, even if it isn't by much. My guess is that it's mostly out of fear of getting mod-killed.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's good to see our enigmas are at least trying be a little more vocal toDay than previous Days, even if it isn't by much. My guess is that it's mostly out of fear of getting mod-killed.

No, it's that I know what the deadline is now. I believe I've already stated that, and your aspersions make me sad. :(

[Nerwen]

Here is my list of people I suspect currently:


Legate: For reasons which I've already stated. I'm not sure, though. I could also see him as just being over-enthusiastic (same with the Rikae business).


Kath: The first Day, I interpreted her Nogrod vote as an attempt to widen the field (as I did later with Gil-Galad.) But the next Day she kept on at him. Now, people seem to think that Nogrod is a very sneaky player, and I’m prepared to believe it. The fact is, though, that all Kath’s arguments were just plain weird.

I certainly felt there was something strange going on there. I don’t know, though, maybe it was a grudge match...

In contrary to Nog, I believe whatever he said about Kath in his last post does not necessarily have to be a reason for his kill. Remember that once the balrogs learned that TM is a Seer, they would have attacked him whether he was close to revealing one of them or not.

Yes... unless that was what finally made up their minds.


Brinniel: Like Legate, she helped make the case against Rikae, and she cast the first vote against her. Yet she, too, apparently sees nothing wrong with pointing at me for having done much the same thing that she did.

Then there was that whole thing with her and Macalaure. I could certainly read that as her making a false, half-hearted attack on him, to cover the fact that she was really going after The Might.

At the moment I can't decide which of them I suspect most. If nothing else comes up to influence my decision, I’ll probably be going for the one with the most votes already, to save my own skin.

For the last time: that is not the same as lynching someone I think is innocent. Do people understand now?

[Nerwen]

Mainly because not only does she defend herself, but she turns it around on Legate. Legate accuses her, and suddenly he is suspicious.

Oh? So why didn't I attack Mithalwen? Or Naria?

I found the nature of Legate's accusation to be highly suspicious. I have already said why.

[Brinniel]

Oh? So why didn't I attack Mithalwen? Or Naria?
Because Legate was the first to make a full analysis of you. He made a pretty strong case against you which is likely to make anyone nervous.

Anyways, why do you feel the need to save your own skin? You may have gathered suspicion (as many other have too), but no one has actually voted for you or said they intend to. :confused:

Your defensive behaviour makes me nervous. It bears a resemblence to how Mac acted yesterDay.

[Nerwen]

I disagree that Legate made a full case against me. I think he made a badly flawed case, but one that might convince people who couldn't be bothered re-reading what I had actually said.

Anyways, why do you feel the need to save your own skin?

Because I'm the only one I know for certain is innocent.

Brinniel, I wasn't saying I'd vote purely to save myself, I was saying that if I truly can't decide between you, Legate and Kath, then I will go for the most popular candidate, rather than split the vote.

I most likely won't be around near the deadline, you see, and I need to guard against a late bandwagon against me. For the same reason, I'm defending myself heavily now, in case I'm not there to do it later.

Now let me say it again: I am not making a counter-attack on Legate because he attacked me, but because he said things that have made think he could be a balrog.

Okay?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nerwen. You are not making yourself look any better in my eyes, and it seems to me that you are trying to grasp on straws and twist them with some of your responses to me (and going rightaway from defensive against me to offensive against me). Like this:

On the whole I thought she was more likely to be the cobbler than the balrog– or if not, that she was acting as a de facto cobbler, and as such was a liability.

(That suggestion originally came from Legate, by the way.)
Yes, and safe as you always are. Adding words like "by the way" make it seem that you don't rely on this thing, but still you had to say that thing - so that other people notice and may, for example, start to suspect me. That is balrogish.

And similar things.
I've re-read the Day 1 posts, and it looks as though a lot of the push to lynch Rikae came from Legate of Amon Lanc himself. Remember his "Rikae's a liar" business?
That's funny, because all I have posted about Rikae before people started to vote for her, was just in two posts. And I returned and started to speak more after she already gathered about 5 or 6 or so votes, one of them from Nerwen herself. And the "liar" business was a joke, as I said, was a joke, was a joke, was a joke, for some reporters with bad ears once again: was a joke (that's not my invention, these are words said by our prime minister several years ago). And I was not the one who first said she can be a cobbler, either - it was mentioned before by sally. In the second post I made before that, I said that we cannot drop in too many conclusions since Rikae did not comment on her behavior till that time.

In general, in her defense Nerwen looks that she's kinda exaggerating, maybe intentionally, like in #182:
At the risk of protesting too much, I'd like to address the “Nerwen lynched Rikae! She must be evil!” argument in a bit more detail.
Now this is clearly twisting what I said. Mainly, as I said, my suspicion does not lay on you lynching Rikae, but on you acting as a whole. And the Rikae-thing is one of the lesser ones. And it does not have anything to do with the fact that you (and obviously only you, as you interpretate my words) lynched Rikae, indeed, there were many and many people doing that. It's the way HOW you did it; what you said when doing it, the commentary you added.
Nerwen's vote for Rikae was the FIFTH for her on Day 1. Thus very, very safe.

Legate is, at the very least, being a bit of a hypocrite.
I'm not accusing him of balrog-hood at this point, even though he's making what I think is a very dubious case against me. He may have, as he says, got carried away– if so, I feel that what set him off was not really anything I did, but the fact that Macalaure stated his belief in my innocence, more than once.
Again, acting this safe-way. "I am not accusing him of balrogishness, even though he seems like he is one, see how nice I am?"

Well yes, that does look bad for me. Except– would Mac have been so vocal in support of a fellow balrog? Remember, no-one was accusing me then. There was no reason for him to defend me. My own opinion is that his comments about me were simply a blind.
But Nerwen, he was not "so vocal". He mentioned you always sideways. On Day 2, when you voted Gil, he did not mention you at all. As I said, he still kept reasonable distance.

Just look how carefully Nerwen plays. Yes, it could be that she is just careful, but I think as a balrog, she could be, yes, honey-tongued, that's the word. And then, after the person whom she voted for is lynched and learned innocent, she says "Oh, poor one, I did not want to kill him."

How to put that. Nerwen's behavior seems like coming from the book "How to act as balrog". That is:
1. Voting for people for whom lots of others may also vote, so her vote gets lost among others.
2. Adding nice comments that make her stay reserved in the cases she builds. If people are not willing to catch on the hook she's putting forward, she can always say "Ah yes, true, I'm not going to vote for that one after all, anyway I already said before that it's not a balrog."

Oh, and concerning the "missing post" thing.
Legate, in his list of my posts, has left out one. He says I only made two posts. I made three.
I did not say you only made two posts, I mentioned only two posts. The other was an analysis of Volo and I believe it had nothing specially important to say to us (or different from what stemmed from the other posts). Yes, I could have mentioned it at least, but I was really tired to go through it better (Volo did not know whether Nerwen is a balrog or not and vice versa, so hardly anything to conclude*) and I was copying and still a bit re-writing the post as I split it into two (as I'm saying in the post before the one where I analyze Nerwen).

*Hey, maybe yes! Now when you mentioned it, Nerwen, thanks for mentioning that. Since this post (#108) was sent at the time Volo was revealed to be a Cobbler, your (if you were a balrog) post analyzing a Cobbler could have differenced yourself from him subconsciously in the minds of the others. You in fact also disqualified Mac as a balrog saying:

Some scenarios to play with:
1. Gil-galad and Macalaure are werebalrogs. Volo was killed for accusing them. Simple– and rather dumb.
And it might have served you that Volo, as you say in your post, "attacked" (your words) Macalaure, but "defended" you. Also a tiny thing, but the ambivalent view is not putting you and Mac together.
As I said, I do not give much value to this one post, but the above states whether and how you could have used it had you been a balrog.

Now, only one technical thing:
I believe that TM dreamt of Legate on pre-game Night one. He then dreamt of Mac on Night one, then dreamt of Nog Night two.
A note, Naria, we don't know of whom he dreamt on Night 2 - he died before he could tell us. On Day 2, he had two dreams to work with.

I am going to look at other people than Nerwen now. But I guess I said what I wanted about her and you can make a picture out of that.

[Mithalwen]

Nogrod - I do understand why you suspect my vote for Gil but please bear in mind my entirely genuine problems that day. HAving had the chance to look back (obviously with the benefit of hindsight, I can see why Mac seemed suspicious but on my very superficial reading I didn't. I suspect Gil rather less now due to his fairly early vote for Mac but he had been more involved and when that happens it suggest he is not an ordo.

I realise I may have seemed a bit flaky but that is not due to the stress of an in game role. Obviously look at my posts but ... remember the context.

[Nerwen]

Legate, so you've largely abandoned your previous case against me, is that what you're saying? And made up a new one more-or-less from scratch?

First, let's look at your peripheral arguments:

Originally Posted by Nerwen
"On the whole I thought she was more likely to be the cobbler than the balrog– or if not, that she was acting as a de facto cobbler, and as such was a liability.

(That suggestion originally came from Legate, by the way.)"

Yes, and safe as you always are. Adding words like "by the way" make it seem that you don't rely on this thing, but still you had to say that thing - so that other people notice and may, for example, start to suspect me. That is balrogish.

I know Sally started the cobbler thing. You were the one who suggested that Rikae was a liability whatever she was. That's what I was referring to– I mentioned it because Naria thought I'd come up with it. I'm sorry if I was unclear.

You in fact also disqualified Mac as a balrog saying:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Some scenarios to play with:
1. Gil-galad and Macalaure are werebalrogs. Volo was killed for accusing them. Simple– and rather dumb.

No, I didn't. I said it would be a dumb thing to do, not that nobody would do it. I wanted people to look at all the possibilties. I didn't want to point too strongly at Mac and/or Gil because firstly, I wasn't sure, and secondly, I didn't want to make myself an obvious target if one of them was guilty.

Your new main argument is apparently that because I play carefully, and am wary of accusing people outright, you think I'm a balrog.

How about an ordo who is afraid of lynching the wrong person, being wrongly lynched, or being killed in the night?

Take this, for example:

Legate is, at the very least, being a bit of a hypocrite.
I'm not accusing him of balrog-hood at this point, even though he's making what I think is a very dubious case against me. He may have, as he says, got carried away– if so, I feel that what set him off was not really anything I did, but the fact that Macalaure stated his belief in my innocence, more than once.

Again, acting this safe-way. "I am not accusing him of balrogishness, even though he seems like he is one, see how nice I am?"

No, I was actually saying I wasn't sure about you, and that there could be an innocent explanation– which I put forward– so I wasn't ready to accuse you. Really. That's all.

Legate, if you're not guilty, please think about what I'm saying. We can't afford to lose more innocent miners.

[Mithalwen]

Just a remider of the situation. There are ten of us left.

Two balrogs
A logical hunter
A ranger
6 ordos

but at least one (probably 2 ) of whom are lovers whose priority is each other not their team (presumably - though only they and lommy know for certain).

I would guess that the remaining lovers are balrog/ ordo since Volo was a cobbler ... Oh Eru ... have we considered that ? If the lovers know each other's identity then Volo knew perhaps of one ordo and a balrog unlike a normal cobbler who has to guess.

As long as the hunter doens't go mad and isn't a lover things aren't too bad.

It seems that we have at least 1 known ordo assuming Mac dreamed of Noggin or Legate - but it doesn't stop them being an ordinary lover:cool:

[Nerwen]

How does this love-triangle thing (if that's what it is) work, anyway?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Legate, so you've largely abandoned your previous case against me, is that what you're saying? And made up a new one more-or-less from scratch?
No. I am stating other things that stem from what you said in your posts after my last one. They are in continuity to how you acted before - playing "safe" is what I pointed out at your posts even in the first analysis I made about you.

I know Sally started the cobbler thing. You were the one who suggested that Rikae was a liability whatever she was. That's what I was referring to– I mentioned it because Naria thought I'd come up with it. I'm sorry if I was unclear.
But that thing I suggested at the very end of Day 1, after many people, including you, already voted for her. It was about quarter an hour before the DL.

Look, I have somewhat calmed down and try to look at it from restrained point of view, but things like this do not make you seem better - it seems as if you are trying to twist my words.

How about an ordo who is afraid of lynching the wrong person, being wrongly lynched, or being killed in the night?
Of course you could be that, but what you do is very typical-wolfy, and combined with how Mac acted towards you, you seem suspicious. That is, in short, the main suspicion I have against you.

Legate, if you're not guilty, please think about what I'm saying. We can't afford to lose more innocent miners.
I definitely agree. And I'm trying to look at you from cold point of view. But if you continue with what looks to me as twisting my words, you are not going to help that.

[Mithalwen]

We don't know .... unfortunately ... never happened before - can only guess :(

[Nerwen]

Here's a couple of ways I can think of–

1. Each of the lovers dies if both the others are killed.

2. "Idril" dies if both her lovers do. "Tuor" and "Maeglin" die if "Idril" does.

You're right, anyway, we need to start considering the lovers.

[Nerwen]

Legate, I owe you an apology. I was confusing your late post, where you made the remark about Rikae being a menace whatever she was, with this early one (#30):


One could say, having in mind what you said, that she is really asking to be lynched. You want to be lynched? Okay, we'll give you that! If you are a cobbler, no harm done. If you are a balrog, here we go - we caught you! However, this point of view would be a little oblivious to the possibility that Rikae is innocent. Personally, I don't see an ordo Rikae likely to risk in such a manner in order to divert suspicion from herself (if anything, it would have to be a joke). However, since she did not comment on her behavior this far, one cannot drop in too much conclusions...

In fact, you're right– you didn't say the thing I've been talking about until just before voting, at the end of the Day, and not until after there had been several votes cast for Rikae already.

I don't know how I came to make that mistake, because I re-read everything. I'm really sorry.

So, Legate, you're starting to look much less balroggish to me now. I don't think you'll get my vote.

I'm sure you'll find some way to interpret this apology as yet another example of my diabolical honey-tongued duplicity. (Ah, Saruman and I... we're like peas in a pod...)

Your arguments against me are the same as before: I'm cautious, threfore I'm guilty.

And then there's Mac's behaviour. First that was the linchpin of your case, then it was unimportant, now it's Exhibit A again. Do make up your mind.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

As I promised, my analysis on Brinniel.

And please folks forgive if this post looks stupid to you. I was making it mainly for myself, so I did not bother with giving it a complex and easily readable form.

DAY 1
#15
Has nothing to say. says even innocent-seeming and newbies should be watched.

#20
After being criticised by Nogrod for saying nothing, says she at least said something.

#22
Tells Rikae that using vote such as that is a waste.
This far, nothing suspicious to me at all. From the following posts, there could be something that could be ambivalent, but you'll see.

#29
Analysis of all who have posted that far. Mac was not among them, so I'm skipping that now (you can look at it yourselves). Names three possibilities why Rikae acted as he acted.

#42
Quotes and disagrees with Mac. This seems very innocentish to me. Has to go, votes Rikae. Then she says that controversial thing about Rikae. Or: the thing that several people thought suspicious. I don't think so. What she said does not seem actually in any way innormal. Says Nog is her second suspect.

Overall, on Day 1, she puts everything in a very calm way and no way raises suspicion for me. This could also mean that she is a very careful balrog. But since there is no evidence in the beginning, I cannot accuse her of anything.

DAY 2
#99
Says Nog is making far more sense that Day. In this post, she explains one thing about Mac (instead of letting him do that, but many people do that, including me) but quite logically, from my point of view. Tries to clear things between her and Nog (why she suspected him).
This could be trying to side with Nog. But if she's a balrog, why? Had she realized that TM is the Seer after what he said and that he dreamt of Nog? But her defense of Mac is very mild, in fact, I wouldn't even call it a defense.

#106
Analyzes a few people, from my POV nothing worth mentioning. Only says that Nog has good points about Mac, but is wary of the possibility of rallying masses - tactics from him. She tends to agree with me, which could be somewhat suspicious (picking the good horses), but otherwise nothing suspicious here to me. Does not like TM is so quick to bandwagon against Mac. Says Mac does not feel like typical Mac and is too defensive.
Here she starts to be suspicious about Mac. Not suspicious at that moment.

#110
Only helps to clear up some rules.

#122
A list of whom she finds suspicous, at least partially: Mac, Nog (keeps switching thoughts on him), Kath for her attitude to Nog, TM for bandwaggoning, Gil for two safe-votes in two days.

#135
Says she'll vote for Mac or TM, whom she does not want to simply leave as I did.

#143
Says Mac is most probably a desperate balrog (and that me and TM being a master and an apprentice is a really scary idea).
Now this may be, if she were a balrog, that she already dropped Mac as a collateral damage.

#145
Says we cannot spread votes anymore (Mac 3, Gil 2, Nerwen 1, TM 2). Mac or Might?
Does not know whom to choose. Now, if she's a balrog, getting TM lynched would be nice, especially if she knows he's a seer. But, that would also get her suspicious. Could it be that this post was a vanguard of the post that was about to come? That would make sense for a balrog.

#149
Votes TM in the very last second. Note, this would not save Mac unless someone else voted (and also it did not - it was the last vote that day, 2 minutes before DL). A balrog could have hoped to save a comrade this way if someone appeared in the last minutes. It could be that Brinn, if she were a balrog, could have waited if she could safely vote for Mac or that she did not know what to do and in the last second tried to desperately save Mac? The former looks too complicated on me. I think Mac's co-balrog would have acted with more sureness, either for Mac or TM, but no need to prolongate this pondering. Only whether she was waiting for something to happen.

#152
(xed with Lommy's stop post) Sees that it did not make much difference.

I am going to stop here on posts #145 and #149. First, Brinn says "I don't know. Mac or Might?" Then Mac votes for TM, making the votes for TM 2. Then Brinn votes TM.

Now, this is what troubles me, for this can be balrogish. Let's see this scenario: Start of Day 2. TM says he suddenly switched his opinion on Nogrod. Brinn concludes he is the Seer and Nog innocent. She sides with Nog. People start to go for Mac. She is prepared to leave him die, but as she sees suspicion against TM, sees an opportunity to lynch the Seer (or if she did not realize his role, then at least opportunity to lynch an innocent instead of Mac. But the Seer thing would be more logical, as we'll see - it's a stronger reason). She's waiting whether to vote Mac or TM: if she votes Mac, she can be the one to seal the fate of her comrade - she does not want to abandon hope. But if she votes in the way that it saves Mac from the gallows, then she will be definitely suspicious. But if she's sure that she lynches the Seer AND saves her friend, I'd say that's worth it. She really does not want to spread votes anymore: she wants everyone to vote Gil or TM, if possible. And she does not know yet how Mac is going to vote. Then, when she sees Mac voting for TM, she decides and votes also in hope that someone else joins the cause, saving Mac from gallows.
That's just a scenario, however. I don't know whether it's plausible. There are other good reasons why she acted how she did - simply, because she was indeed undecided.

Let's move on:
DAY 3
#179
Says it's obvious that TM dreamt of Nog on night 2, as only that makes sense (with this I agree). Speaks about several people, including myself, to the situation. Agrees with me on Nerwen.

#187
Speaks about Nerwen, the new thing she adds to what I said are some things about Nerwen's analysis of Volo and her "accusing her accuser" (me).

#189
Clears up things to Naria (about TM's dreams - I said the same thing also as I overlooked it). Clears up some other things about Gil (who said she was defending Mac), replies to Shasta... Says that it's good to see the "enigmas" are more vocal, probably out of fear of modkill.

#193
Says Nerwen's defensive behavior resembles Mac's yesterDay.

In these last posts, she openly sides with me against Nerwen. Again, this can be the "betting on a good horse", now hoping (as a balrog) that by siding with me she wins the day.

So, Brinn, if you are a balrog, I give you the permission to burst with evil laughter now. I am not decided on you being too suspicious.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Legate, I owe you an apology. I was confusing your late post, where you made the remark about Rikae being a menace whatever she was, with this early one (#30):
Apology accepted, Captain Needa.

I'm sure you'll find some way to interpret this apology as yet another example of my diabolical honey-tongued duplicity. (Ah, Saruman and I... we're like peas in a pod...)
Yes, I could. Let's say - now you are behaving again safe, backing away. But there's one thing, you behave like that always - I would expect a change in your behavior had you been a balrog. So maybe, maybe it's indeed your style. But that's still not leaving it.

Your arguments against me are the same as before: I'm cautious, threfore I'm guilty.

And then there's Mac's behaviour. First that was the linchpin of your case, then it was unimportant, now it's Exhibit A again. Do make up your mind.
I said: both.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sort of a finish to my Brinn-analyse.

#31
Brinn starts by saying nothing and only agreeing. She then snaps at the first criticism, too. In her case, it seems less innocent than in TM's. Her later thoughts appear much better, though.

#37
I think there is quite a bit which can be seen from the way people deal with Rikae.
There's the baffled ones, like TM, Shasta, Sally, Kath.
There's the analysers, like Legate, Brinniel, and Nerwen.
Their reactions are the common ones and, I think, rather unsuspicious.
(then he continues on Mith&Nog who are suspicious to him. And mentions Nerwen: "Nerwen pointed out her confusion once too often, too." - I don't know if I mentioned this in my analysis of Nerwen.)

#73
leaning unsuspicious
Brinniel
Then there is a new Day, and about five posts nothing but silence on her.

What to make out of it? He's keeping very consistent and logical about her (see on next Day). Is it possible that she's an ordo and he already made some decision on how to approach to her, or that she is a balrog and he acts the way that they keep enough distance? May be so. He tries to mention her enough, but not too much. But of course no one can mention everyone in all his posts.

DAY 2
#116 about 3 and half an hour before DL (so, quite late)
And while I'm 'only' very wary of Nogrod, I am very suspicious of Brinniel. I will come back to that when I'm back.

#124 is an analysis of Brinn. You'd have to look at it as a whole, I'm not quoting it here.

Then one post nothing, then #137 he starts by quoting and replying to Brinn and then says that he would like to go for Brinn, but no one else wants to. I also suggest you read it whole if you are interested in the Brinn-case.

Then he voted TM for reasons above (he was the only co-bandwaggon that could save him, and he said one post before that he does not want to vote for Gil).

Yes, the things in #116 and #124 look really strange. It's either that he wants to drag innocent Brinn down with him, or that it's a double-trick and he wants us to think that she's not a fellow balrog because he would not put a fellow balrog to such danger.

I need to read, read, read and see also what others think about it, if they have any points about things I overlooked and then I need to think, think, think.

[satansaloser2005]

First of all, Legate I thank you for your handy little post a bit ago. It makes my post SO much easier, especially since I've just woken up. So if I seem a little fuzzy, it's because I am.

Really condensed nutshell version:
Brinn tells Rikae her vote is a waste (nonretractable and all that)
Brinn is the FIRST ONE to vote Rikae (not including Rikae herself of course)

That alone makes her suspicious in my eyes. She says she doesn't want Rikae to come back the next day and look innocent. I'm thinking Brinn didn't want her to come back at all. (yeah obvious I know. again, I'm tired)




Also I'm not terribly at ease with the fact that everyone assumes Might has dreamed about certain people. Now it does make sense from Might's posts that he DID dream about Nogrod, but perhaps it was just his voting of Mac that cleared him in Might's eyes. Besides Nogrod however, and even that is fuzzy, I am very uncertain as to who Might might have dreamed of. I just felt the need to throw that out there.


Updated suspect list (very subject to change)
Brinn (see above posts by several people)
Kath (still makes me uneasy....don't know why though)
Mith (post 148 Mith says everyone needs to vote or Mac will die by default....protecting her balrog brother?)


Not really sure WHAT to think
Legate
Gil
Nerwen

Thinking they're probably innocent (or not worth my trouble)
Nogrod (assuming that Might DID indeed dream of him)
Shasta
Naria


be back tomorrow night (after the next day starts) with more comments. also may be able to borrow a friend's internet connection right before deadline if i am needed. good luck all~!

[Nerwen]

Hey, Legate, you realize that your cautious, unwilling-to-commit-yourself analysis of Brinniel is, according to you, a symptom of balroggery? In fact you've been playing pretty darn carefully most of the time. I find it... interesting that you claim to see your own playing style as evidence of guilt in somebody else.

I'm also noting that though I've taken back part of my argument, you were the one who made the main case against Rikae– so I still think it's odd that you went after me for my actions that Day. Now you say the Rikae angle isn't important, but in your original accusation it most certainly was.

However, I've been reading through the posts at the end of yesterDay, and I'm inclining towards thinking Brinniel's more suspicious.

What's bugging me, though, is that the two people who have already voted Brinniel are both ones I'm doubtful about, especially Sally with her modus operandi of "pop up from nowhere, make bizarre comment, disappear again". Still, she seems to have got better.

Hmmn. I don't know what to think, yet. I have to make up my mind very soon.

[Nerwen]

I have to go now, so

++Brinniel.

I've been reading through her anti-me posts from earlier. Some very twisted logic there.

I'm still dubious about Legate, though.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nerwen! You seem to be misusing the fact that I tried to look at you in somewhat calmer way...

Anyway, seems I don't have time to make analyses on anyone else toDay, in fact I'm rather exhausted... and I'm not even going to reply to Nerwen, because all she says I have already answered before so there's no need to repeat myself hundred times over... I'm going to appear before the DL and then vote, and most probably for Nerwen. There is still time for people to post whatever they think might be helpful...

One thing I can say as very probable is that if Nerwen is not a balrog, Brinniel is. And if we lynch Brinniel and she is not a balrog, I say we lynch Nerwen. Simple as that.

[Mithalwen]

Mith (post 148 Mith says everyone needs to vote or Mac will die by default....protecting her balrog brother?)



Sally, you are free to suspect me but I fear you misunderstandand misrepresent me . That is not what my post says at all. "Vote swiftly or it will be Mac by default" was aimed specifically at Brinniel's dithering between Mac and the Might a couple of posts earlier .

I wasn't trying to protect Mac.. I wanted Brinniel to nail her colours to the mast. Not vote to save Mac but a vote to leave an "audit trail". If people leave voting to late then abstain on the grounds that it wasn't going to make a difference it is a bit shifty to me.

If for arguments sake Brinniel and Mac were both wolves and they had already a strong suspicion that the Might was the seer - not impossible given the various possible hints, Brinniel was in an awkward situation last night - either to put Mac's vote quite beyond reach or to vote for the seer. Either could look bad when the role was revealed on death... but not voting looks bad too. Of course ordos dither too but you have to folow up what leads you can.
But to take that post so out of context and twist it .... and make it grounds for major suspicion? That is a little suspicious...

[Nerwen]

One thing I can say as very probable is that if Nerwen is not a balrog, Brinniel is. And if we lynch Brinniel and she is not a balrog, I say we lynch Nerwen. Simple as that.

Agreed. And if we both get lynched, and neither of us are balrogs... I think you all know who to lynch next, right? ;)

Now I really have to go. Good night, all.

[Brinniel]

A half an hour left til deadline....where is everyone? Five votes have been made, so five more should be coming in.

I was going to go after Nerwen or even Kath, but it seems now I will have to vote for either Legate or Sally if there's any chance of saving myself. :(

I still don't find Legate all that suspicious. Sally I'm not so sure.

[Kath]

I'm sorry, I know I've barely been here toDay but I've been out since midday and only just got back and I want to go watch what's left of Come Dancing so I'm gonna vote quickly and go. I will try to be much more active tomorrow as I shouldn't be as busy!

The Day has seemed mostly to be an argument between Nerwen and Legate, but I don't actually think either is suspicious for it. It reminds me of my argument with Noggie, so I can hardly accuse them on that basis.

The suspects of the Day seem to be Nerwen and Brinn. Well, I don't find Nerwen suspicious and I'm not sure about Brinn. I've seen analyses of her and I can see the arguments against her, and I've also not managed to get a feel on her yet and that, well, lack of anything does suggest some suspicion to me. But I'm not convinced.

Mith has suddenly become very calm but then she hasn't really been under suspicion toDay. Still she answered Nerwen very calmly, so I'm thinking she's innocent at the moment.

Argh, where have I got to.

Probably innocent:
Mithalwen
Legate of Amon Lanc
Nogrod
Nerwen

Really can't get a grip on:
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Naria
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin

Huh, so basically I think everyon who speaks is innocent and everyone that doesn't is suspicious. Wrong way round for me!

But, of those I'm left with. Oh I really don't know toDay. Actually, I think I might put Shasta into the innocent list, as reading back over her posts quickly they actually look pretty good. And Naria, I don't think a balrog would have such confusion over how many Night's we've had so I guess she's eliminated. Which leaves Brinn, Gil and Sally.

I don't want to vote Gil. He's really getting involved this game and that's hardly something to be discouraged. It does generally mean he has a role of some kind but I haven't seen enough yet to know if it's a good or bad one.

Brinn or Sally, Brinn or Sally. I've gone over their posts. Brinn's mostly analytical, Sally's a little lacking in substance. So:

++SALLY

Because of the comments around The Might mostly I think. We all know that everything we assume about who he dreamt of is just that, an assumption, so this seems an odd comment:

I just felt the need to throw that out there.

Right, I'm off.

[Mithalwen]

A post count ...correct me if I am wrong

Brinniel 3 (Sally, Gol, Nerwen)
Sally 1 (Nogrod)
Legate 1 (Shasta)


Not voted

Legate, Me, Kath, Naria, Brinniel.

Every has at least turned up, still open .... hmmm

[Mithalwen]

Ok.... hmmI was thinking about voting Sally sinceI didn't like her twisting my words but I can never not suspect Kath.. and that makes Sally less suspicious gah.... and I while I can't say I am certain about Brinniel..I am suspicious enough to be cautious about letting her off the hook... 20 minutes....

[Brinniel]

Alright then.

++Sally

To have any shot of saving myself. She does have a bit of an odd behaviour, though I'm not sure I would actually call it suspicious. Yet, I think Legate is more likely to be innocent anyway.

[Mithalwen]

I don't want to vote Gil. He's really getting involved this game and that's hardly something to be discouraged. It does generally mean he has a role of some kind but I haven't seen enough yet to know if it's a good or bad one.


Yep a 2 posts per day average must be a record ....:p

[satansaloser2005]

To be truthful, I'm a little concerned about getting voted. But alas, if you all wish to kill me, that will be your decision.

To clarify, I don't find Nogrod suspicious really. I just don't like to assume things too quickly, thus I question Might's clues to us. They could be completely random, but indeed the odds are in favor of Nogrod's innocence. Either way, I don't think he's harboring balrog tendencies.

[satansaloser2005]

Brinn seems fairly happy to sacrifice someone else to save herself by the way. Although I agree with her, Legate is leaning toward innocence in my book too.

[Mithalwen]

Oh mandos .... I get stuck with the casting vote .... and I can never make decisions ..... 2 suspects and I trust some of the voters in both camps more than others ...

[Brinniel]

Sally, did you change your post? I swear it read something differently a second ago...

[satansaloser2005]

Alas it appears this will be my dying post, so I shall wish you all good luck in your balrog hunting endeavors, just in cae. I hope to play again with you all soon either way!

Yeah I did. Sorry I miscounted the votes and was saying a quick goodbye was all. Basically "good luck guys" but since I miscounted I just edited my post so I didnt have to post again about Legate and stuff.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

*steps in* So I guess no one goes for Nerwen after all, eh?

Okay. So it's probably Sally or Brinn. It's interesting - I just swiftly looked through Sally's posts and, well, she's not much vocal. The current idea is that I'd rather lose a quieter player than a vocal one. It now find the idea of vocal balrog Brinn around better than that of quiet Sally. But Sally does not seem suspicious - well, she does not seem like anything, because she posts almost nothing. And Nerwen-Sally balrogs could be possible maybe also? (no, I have not dropped that case yet :) ) Anyway, however it ends, if Brinn is lynched and she's innocent, I say we look at Nerwen tomorrow.

[Mithalwen]

Gah that is making it hard from me ... that kind of post is really inappropriate and changing it....

[Mithalwen]

Given that I saw the content I don't know what to do - faux naive... Nerwen, legate is quite good to have around ..... this lovers thing bothers me - makes it hard to be definite about folk

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry about that, just a little jumpy today. I put the original information back in. My mistake :S

[Brinniel]

Not making up your mind is going to look very bad tomorrow...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

It's a try... a random roll whether someone crossposts with me or not

++Sally

EDIT: x-ed with Brinn. Now I wonder what I have done by this.

[Mithalwen]

++Brinniel...

I tossed a coin not a dwarf

[Thinlómien]

Please, stop discussing. Sally is dead. Role revelation and narration to follow.

[Mithalwen]

I changed my m ind even as I posted ... or the coin did

[Thinlómien]

The day passed in heated debates and accusations were flying around like lime-coloured rectangular flying saucers. In the end, the miners found it really difficult to choose whether to lynch Brinniel or Sally. They obviously couldn't settle the matter by voting as there were precisely as many for lynching Brinn and for lynching Sally. ”What shall we do?” Gil-Galad voiced the popular thought.

”I know!” Mith said, ”Let's toss a coin!”
”A coin?” Nerwen asked sceptically.
”But of course! Not a real coin, but we make a coin of them!” Kath said, ”Brinniel, which one you'd prefer to be, heads or tails?”
”Heads...”, she said, wondering what kind of trap she was walking into.
”I'll have tails then”, Sally said.

So the miners took a rope and tied Brinn and Sally back against back.
”Now, we should just somehow toss them and see which one lands on the top”, Nogrod observed.
”Let's take them to that high rock over there and throw upwards”, Shasta suggested.
No one except Sally and Brinn disagreed so they brought the two young ladies to the rock.

”One”, said Naria,
”Two”, said Mith,
”THREE!” said Kath and the miners thusted Brinniel and Sally in the air. The young women screamed while the other miners applauded wildly.

THUMP. Brinniel and Sally hit the ground. Sadly for Sally, Brinniel landed on the top. Even though Brinniel was not heavy, her weight, the considerable height and the speed had performed their task. Sally was no longer among the living.
Laying in a pool of blood and broken bones, Brinniel passed out.

”Now I wonder what we have done by this”, Legate muttered.

~*~

Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - killed by a wingless balrog on Night1
Rikae (ordo) - ate too many cobblers on Day1
Volo (Maeglin the Cobbler Lover) - dropped by a winged balrog on Night2
Lhunardawen (ordo) - committed suicide by smashing her own head on Day2
Macalaure (The Balrog with Swing) - left after being insulted by his low-class fans on Day2
The Might (Eärendil the Seer) - became the miners' shining star on Night3
satansaloser2005 (ordo) - landed face down on Day3

Living
Brinniel
Gil-Galad
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Naria
Nerwen
Nogrod
Shastanis Althreduin

Night4 has begun. Lovers and balrogs may discuss. Balrogs and remaining gifteds may send me their picks.

[Thinlómien]

The two balrogs crept closer to the place where Gil-Galad was sleeping. ”Time to die, dude”, the Balrog with Bling whispered evilly. The balrogs raised their fiery weapons to finish the miner, but their deadly whips were tangled around an unsheathed sword. ”Not yet”, Gil-Galad said softly, his eyes burning with ardent anger. He swung his sword in a mighty arch and both balrogs lost grip of their weapons.

”I am Glorfindel of the Golden Flower, a High Noldorin Lord! You won't slaughter me like a maggot like you have slaughtered my people. Deal with my blade!” Gil-Galad shouted. Furious because of the loss of their weapons and being confronted, the balrogs attacked the elf. He parried their attacks easily, and managed to get between the two balrogs. He raised his sword and charged towards the Balrog with Bling, chanting: ”Ei múmitaloa lucita yócsi, hei múmí! Cun hamara hípú yo tahtien vyócsi, hei múmí...! Nyt carceloi cansa ya cunnailla soi, cas múmeilta elamá opia voi... hei múmí!”

Screaming, the Balrog with Bling ran. She ran to the balrogs' secret exit and up to the mountain slope. Behind her, Gil-Galad ran, swinging his gleaming sword and after him, the Balrog who Sings, uncharacteristically silent.

The Balrog with Bling realised she was in a dead end. She could not escape anymore. The High Elf was right behind her and her fellow balrog was still too far away to be of any assistance. Screaming hideously, she turned to attack Gil-Galad. Their eyes locked.

”I knew it was you”, the elf said, ”nice to meet you in your true form, Brinniel.”
”You know nothing, dude”, she said, ”we are da werebalrogs and you're gonna lose!”
”I don't think so”, Gil-Galad said, aiming a mighty blow towards the balrog.
Brinniel parried the blow with her arm and it was lopped away. ”Just a flesh wound”, she hissed, ready to retaliate. But she never got the chance. Gil-Galad cast her to the gorge. She fell, but she managed to swing her big golden bling chain around his feet and dragged him with her to the abyss.

Even when he died, Gil-Galad was laughing. ”Fly, you fool”, he told Brinn, ”if you can.” But because the Moddess Goddess had decreed balrogs don't have wings, Brinniel could do nothing to help her situation, only to curse her cruel fate and the cruel Mod.

~*~

Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - killed by a wingless balrog on Night1
Rikae (ordo) - ate too many cobblers on Day1
Volo (Maeglin the Cobbler Lover) - dropped by a winged balrog on Night2
Lhunardawen (ordo) - committed suicide by smashing her own head on Day2
Macalaure (The Balrog with Swing) - left after being insulted by his low-class fans on Day2
The Might (Eärendil the Seer) - became the miners' shining star on Night3
satansaloser2005 (ordo) - landed face down on Day3
Gil-Galad (Glorfindel the Hunter) – died in a duel on Night4
Brinniel (The Balrog with Bling) – died in a duel on Night4


Living
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Naria
Nerwen
Nogrod
Shastanis Althreduin

Day 4 has started. You may start chatting.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Very nice. Gil, if you hear us where you are now, know you did a great job. Now I guess our situation is far, far better and also far, far clearer.

First, now that Brinn is dead, we can make conclusions depending on her attitude towards people and other people's towards her, and on yesterday's voting. What strikes me immediately is that we can say Mith is not probably a balrog - unless she read my vote before she posted, which I find very, very, very unlikely.

My favourite suspect's, Nerwen's, vote also looks quite innocentish at the moment, which makes me think that I probably indeed got carried off with her case:o Of course, unless she wanted to seal the fate of her companion, knowing that it's either her or Brinn. So it's not 100%, but I'm ceasing my ongoing suspicious analysis on her, at least for the moment.

If we hold to the thing that TM dreamt of Nogrod and saw him innocent, then we can leave Nog also out of our suspects.

Now that would leave us with Kath, Naria and Shasta. I will do some post analyses.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I start with Naria who has posted the less of all. Only three posts.

Day 2

#105
Says Nog "seems to be off on his usual ranting about useless individuals and so on" and does not see why he is never content, mentioning TM and Nerwen seem that they are trying and their posts make sense.
Then, elaborates on being incontent with classifying which posts are "good ones" and which are "bad ones".

#140
Saying that seeing Mac is gathering votes (he had 3), she is not finding him too suspicious. Votes for Nerwen, saying she does not like her offensive post (meaning probably #127).

#186
Says that confused by me and Nog, decided "to give her take on things". Presents her opinion on TM's dreams (but is wrong in the count of the nights). Says this helped her clear her mind on me.

That's really very little. Let's wait if she appears toDay (generally she does around 5-7 AM GMT). If she does not and/or does not vote, she may be ModKilled. If she's a balrog, this would be nice. Otherwise, her posts are really too few to make something out of them. The only thing that could be thought about is her unwillingness to vote for Mac on Day 2, creating a co-bandwaggon (there was no other candidate than Mac at that time). But, hmph, let's see what's to be found at the others...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

*applauds* Nice work, Gil!

This leaves the Balrog who Sings left, correct? That could point to me, I suppose: I happen to love to sing. :D

Hm. Now that we know that Brinniel was bad, I'm inclined to trust Nerwen more, and wonder about Legate... although he seems less Balrog-ish to me than he did yesterday.

If we go by Legate's list, then my suspicions are firmly on Kath for the moment, as I know I'm innocent, and I'm not sure Naria has been active enough (pot calling kettle, anyone? :rolleyes: ) for baddieship. I think I'll go back and look at her, if Legate hasn't already done so while I've been typing this. :p

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Kath

DAY 1

#32
Her only post that Day. Makes some short comment on everyone. I quote just what she says about the balrogs:
Brinn ~ I'm liking her posts. Straightforward and not worrying a point to death.
Mac ~ Well, I have some support for my suspicion of Noggie at least. His points seem pretty well made.
Votes Nogrod (she suspects him earlier in the post).

DAY 2
#83
Says it's good that the cobbler is dead and lovers around are not good, but agrees with Nog that the balrogs are more important.

#100
Explains her suspicion of Noggins, mainly: posting a lot, calling for substance in posts while not doing that himself, "seeing balrogs everywhere". Wonders why Nog is jumpy about that when she only wants to clear up whether he's a balrog.

#111
In response to Nog, mentions Naria and Brinn saying the same things about him before. Says Rikae bandwagon was a mistake that could have been avoided. Mentions Nog's vote as suspicious and also Nerwen. Says that there is little to be gathered from Volo. Says also that Mith is jumpy and wants to see more from her.

#118
Continues debate with Nogrod, mainly suspecting him because of him willing to sacrifice Rikae to save his own skin even though he says he thought her innocent.

DAY 3

#162
Starts with thoughts about TM mentioning me, Mac and Nog as candidates for dreaming. Concludes that TM dreamt of me and Nog, thus, leaving her Nog-case. Explains to Brinn her on-going case with Nog, apologizing to her.

#169
Replies to Shasta about how much till DL.

#175
Again clears up the time for Shasta.

#214
Apologizes for not being around, sums the Day as arguing between me and Nerwen. Does not think either of us suspicious. On the Day's subjects, she does not find Nerwen suspicious and is not sure about Brinn. People remaining to vote for her are Brinn, Gil and Sally. Does not want to vote Gil because it seems he's trying, then chooses Sally over Brinn because of her comments around TM (it was Brinn 3, me 1, Sally 1 at that time).

That's all. Well, in general, I don't find at least her early posts suspicious. Her arguing with Nog is still arguing with only one subject, which is interesting and I don't know what to think of that. But what's innocent-seeming to me are her exchanges with Brinn - I don't think a balrog would discuss that openly with his comrade. Also, she mentions especially Brinn and Mac supporting her case against Nogrod on Day 2 - well that would be very dangerous thing to do, connect themselves in the eyes of the others. Only her last vote for Sally could have been an attempt to support the bandwaggon to save Brinn, but apart from that, there is nothing to support this idea.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Shasta
Note: I still can't remember that Shasta is HE; I corrected it in the PM after I wrote it, but if I missed it anywhere, please correct it in your minds when you read it. Sorry, Shasta.

DAY 1

#26
Finds Rikae's vote odd given the no-retraction rule and asks her to comment on that.

DAY 2

#103
Apologizes for not posting and explains - RL issues. Says that there's "something about TM that immediately sets him on edge".
He did not vote that day because he mixed up that DL, Lommy left him alive.

DAY 3

#168
Asks how long remains till DL.

#174
Says "phew, 21 hours".

#176
Says he likes my posts on Nerwen, but will rather go back and read for himself. Nog seems to him defensive of Nerwen.

#180
Says he's trying to be more active, and that he's not good in in-depth analysis.
Says it's clear TM dreamt of Nog on Night 2. I am a mystery to him, maybe word-twisty if Nerwen is to be believed.

#182
Says me and Brinn are the most suspicious to her now.

#185
Votes me because there were already two votes on Brinn and "there has been lamentation on earlier days about the one choice of lynching", so he goes out with his other suspicion and "let the others make the choice".

#188
Says to Brinn that he doesn't find Nerwen's behavior of defending against myself suspicious.

Yes, and his last post I believe everyone sees. It seems quite ok to me. Okay, now... Shasta overall seems relatively okay to me. And a balrog, I believe, would not vote me yesterDay just as simply.

I'm probably going asleep soon, but to finish these thoughts: the most suspicious of these three now to me seems Naria. Or, better said: the least less suspicious, if you know what I mean. Imagine that the balrogs would have had easier work when they did not have to mention her at all, as she did almost never show. The solution is easy. If she does not show up, she's modkilled. But if she does, I'd go for lynching her.

[Nogrod]

Alright then.

++Sally

To have any shot of saving myself. She does have a bit of an odd behaviour, though I'm not sure I would actually call it suspicious. Yet, I think Legate is more likely to be innocent anyway.Okay. Don't take everything Legate says uncritically... :p

I'm sadly not having time to do more right now but I have read the posts that had come after I flew away.

Only three minutes left with the computer. I try to come back later toDay.

I still wouldn't forget Kath either...

[Kath]

Oh yes way to go Gil! I must admit I hadn't been convinced that Brinn was guilty but thank goodness our fabulous Hunter did. Only one balrog left! One out of seven is not bad odds at all.

I'm not going to do a lot tonight (RL) 'cause I'm not feeling great and so not up for analyses or even much thinking in general, but I'll be around, and I'll get some proper thinking done tomorrow.

What I will say is that I still think it fair to consider Legate and Noggie as known innocents, and that does narrow the field of potential balrogs down for me, leaving me with:

Mith
Naria
Nerwen
Shasta

[Nerwen]

Let us have a moment of silence for Gil-Galad, who made the ultimate sacrifice, and Sally, tragic victim of circumstance.

...What the hell was in that post of hers, anyway? I missed the end of the voting.

In fact, I'm rather perplexed by what happened. I logged on last Night to check whether Brinniel or I had been lynched... and it's... Sally?!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Ugh, have to vote early again. Going with my highest suspicion:

++Kath

[Naria]

The solution is easy. If she does not show up, she's modkilled. But if she does, I'd go for lynching her.

Whatever, being stuck between a rock and a hard place is really cozy...you should try it sometime:p

I would go with Shasta and vote for Kath. She has been vocal and has managed to stay under the radar at the same time. Kath can be very tricksy, but meh...I feel like showin her some love, so I'm going to leave her alone.

I work early tomorrow morning and I won't be home till way after Days end. So I am forced to make my vote now.

I am going to go for Legate *gasps of awe and shock from the audience*:rolleyes: Yes I did say that what TM said made Legate look more innocent to me, but in light of yesterDays blunder...I'm not convinced anymore. I can't quite put my finger on it...hmm I think it's the way that he has be so sure of what he is doing(to me at least--a little abnormally sure) with little or no wavering. This might be his style of play, but I'm not ready to just accept that either.

It's late and I need to go to bed...

++Legate

[Nerwen]

Kath, when you voted Sally, you had this to say:

++SALLY

Because of the comments around The Might mostly I think. We all know that everything we assume about who he dreamt of is just that, an assumption, so this seems an odd comment:

Quote:
I just felt the need to throw that out there.

Now, I disagree. I think Sally actually made quite a good suggestion. I believe it’s worth thinking about what the Might said again. In case people’s memories are getting hazy, here are the facts:

The Might did practically nothing the first Day, finally popping in to vote Nogrod (#50) on the grounds that it was his "instinct".

On the second Day, he made comments about four people:

He made a sudden about-face on Nogrod, again claiming it was based on “feeling” (#86).

He said he thought Legate was a good guy, but that this was based on examining his posts (#86).

(He states his support for these two again at #117.)

Apparently following Nogrod’s lead, he expressed suspicion of Macalaure (#91), which he repeated at #95, this time saying it was because

After these posts Macalaure seems pretty suspicious.
First he posts, saying that he must quickly leave and has no time to comment on anything else, so it looks to me as if he was kind of in a hurry.
Still, he finds time 5 minutes later to post again in a quite defensive trying to explain why Nogrod and Gil ended up as those he suspected most.

He voted against Mac at #117.

In passing he said he found Kath suspicious, but didn’t say why (#117).

We know the Seer only dreamed twice before he was foully murdered, so no more than two of his comments can be based on direct knowledge. In the case of Legate and Mac, he gave only fairly slight reasons for his beliefs. For the other two, Kath and Nogrod, none at all.

He says he is

not entirely sure

about Kath, but

quite certain

about Mac (#117).

That sounds as if he doesn't have any special knowledge about Kath.

The consensus view (not sure who said what, and I don’t have time to check) seems to be that The Might probably dreamed of Nogrod (innocent), plus either Legate (innocent) or Mac (guilty).

That seems a reasonable conclusion, and yet– what’s really worrying me now is that when Sally said,

Also I'm not terribly at ease with the fact that everyone assumes Might has dreamed about certain people. Now it does make sense from Might's posts that he DID dream about Nogrod, but perhaps it was just his voting of Mac that cleared him in Might's eyes. Besides Nogrod however, and even that is fuzzy, I am very uncertain as to who Might might have dreamed of. I just felt the need to throw that out there.

Kath suddenly went after her (#214).

So, I'm not liking the look of you right now, Kath.

I also want to look at Naria, if I have time.

[Nerwen]

One thing though: Kath did state explicitly that her reason for voting Sally was Sally's caution against making assumptions.

Would she be that obvious if she were a balrog? I don't know.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay. Since Naria has appeared and voted, so no modfiring on her, I'm 99% going to vote for her. I'm inclined to think both Shasta and Kath innocent. They both had exchanges with Brinniel in the way that it would be really strange for balrogs to openly chat like that. And also, Naria's scarce appearance makes her a very dangerous quantity to count with in the game. And if her vote on me was a balrog's retaliation on my suspicions of her, then the more.
This might be his style of play, but I'm not ready to just accept that either.
Which seems quite stubborn.

What do you others think?

Oh, I'm leaving now, and I guess I'll be back around... eh... four (or three and half or something) hours or so before DL. Maybe I will get a chance to sneak in once again on a computer in the school library, but that's not for sure - one is lucky when there is a free computer...

[Nerwen]

Okay. Since Naria has appeared and voted, so no modfiring on her, I'm 99% going to vote for her. I'm inclined to think both Shasta and Kath innocent. They both had exchanges with Brinniel in the way that it would be really strange for balrogs to openly chat like that. And also, Naria's scarce appearance makes her a very dangerous quantity to count with in the game. And if her vote on me was a balrog's retaliation on my suspicions of her, then the more.

These are all good points you make, Legate.

What I don't like is that twice she's voted to lynch people without giving proper reasons. That could mean she hasn't had time to read through the posts and was casting "donkey votes" to avoid being mod-fired. However, in her vote against me (#140) she says I've been bothering her "for some time". So... has she been paying more attention than she's making out?

There is this to consider, though:

And Naria, I don't think a balrog would have such confusion over how many Night's we've had so I guess she's eliminated.

Still, I'll think about it.

[Nerwen]

Something I'd like to mention now, in case I die toDay or toNight– I have an impression that Kate and Legate support and defend each other an awful lot. People may want to read through their posts on previous Days.

They can't both be balrogs.

Are they the lovers?

Edit: Don't assume that, if so, one of them's a balrog. I'm not sure how the love-triangle-whatever-thing works.

[Nogrod]

Interesting thoughts Nerwen. Sadly I don´t have time or energy to go deep in to them but I´m feeling quite good about your contributions right now.

And I do agree with you wholeheartedly. We really should remember that practically no one TM spoke about we can´t be sure about.

It´s also interesting to consider the choices of the balrogs: Volo, The Might, Gil-Galad. And look at the accuracy! A cobbler, the seer, the hunter...

I´d say that´s not too bad! :eek:

It´s also interesting to see fex. both myself and Legate still alive, untouched by those creatures of fire and flame. So have they been afraid of the ranger or is Legate the remaining one?


They can't both be balrogs.
Are they the lovers?
Edit: Don't assume that, if so, one of them's a balrog. I'm not sure how the love-triangle-whatever-thing works.Allright. Maybe we should then speak openly about our beliefs about Legate and Kath - and anyhow Nerwen brought it to the fore already so it´s not hidden anymore.

I thought that already yesterDay. But as I was afraid that the lover-triangle would have been the cobbler - the hunter - an ordo* I was afraid to speak it out (thinking Legate as the hunter then) as there were chances the balrogs hadn´t noticed their seeming alliance.

The dilemma number 1 now is whether we should think the other part of the duo to be a balrog or not. According to that belief we should then either try to protect them or lynch them...

Dilemma no. 2 is for the ranger to make the decision conserning #1 if they´re still alive in a situation where I´m probably also alive.

With only one balrog left the balrog knows exactly what the situation is.

The fundamental dilemma surely goes: do we have a correct interpretation here about The Legate and Kath as lovers. We can be wrong about it as well.



*That would have been quite balanced as both the cobbler and the hunter are double-edged creatures able of doing good and harm to the side they represent.