View Full Version : WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die
Legate of Amon Lanc
05-06-2009, 04:36 PM
Funny that the seer and a ringwraith are having a dialogue with all others still sleeping or something.
Or a fake seer and an innocent, yea... :p
But for one, of course I agree - somebody should be here and post. (Unless the real Seer ponders whether to come out or not.)
Nogrod
05-06-2009, 04:52 PM
Then to what I think now.
My candidates for the dream at the last minutes of the Night were Nerwen, Nienna and Kent.
I must confess that I did think it already in the end of Day2 that I might not check Nerwen but first count the probabilities of how you baddies would act whether she was a mate of yours or not if I called it openly I'm going to dream of her.
I was really baffled why Lhuna was still alive after Night2 as I knew Legate was a baddie and Lhuna made quite a one-track-minded attack on him on Day1 - and I can now see you baddies trying to capitalise on that choice of yours on N2.
Lhuna being one of the pack is a possibility though. I did entertain that possibility for a good time but after reading the thread again I felt there were better choices than her. And the sudden talk about wolves being afraid of a hunter trying to look like a seer (coming from Nerwen and Legate) seemed to fit - if Nerwen was a baddie that is. Now that she's not the question of Lhuna should be raised again.
Nienna and Kent I suspected from being overly careful on Day1 voting - and look at them on Day2: they were both there in the end making their mark! That made me suspect them a lot even if I thought it would be absurd they both were wolves. But which one of them?
Well, you wolves answered that question.
So I'd be looking at Nienna as well toDay.
Although I must add this: the fact that Legate made his last post at the last moment where he said he felt a bit better about Nienna was probably written as crosspost to my revealment so he probably didn't know at that time that I had come open with his role. And that was one of the last factors that made me decide checking on Nerwen rather than Nienna. I mean a confident wolf might say something like that of his mate in the end of the Day but I was unsure whether that would be a reasonable thing to do as I don't think there was any heavy suspicion on her anyway. And Legate would know he would be in the higher end of the list of seer dreams (unless some more interesting seer tactics would be involved).
Sally is one candidate more. I lost track of her yesterDay as her attitude towards people who suspected her was so joking. And as I suspected Nerwen a lot then her suspicion of Sally kind of baffled me as well. The same can be said of Nienna as well. It kind of made me feel sahe could be innocent after all and just having fun around.
But now as Nerwen has turned out innocent - and if Nienna is too - then I'd need to reconsider Sally once again as a baddie.
And the whole Eomer's "suspicion-bandwagon" calls for a closer look. It will be not one but at least two - and probably three wolves - who were bringing their effort into that (I counted at least 7 people suspecting him and making comments that added to the feeling that he should be lynched). THe wolves were feeling fine with that as they knew he was innocent. Just how to separate the innocents taking hold of something others talk about from those baddies deliberately keeping the topic up?
Oh my... needs to go to sleep now. Eönwë, Shasta? Wilwa?
Too many questionmarks...
I'll try to do something later toDay as it will be my last Day anyway - but sadly I have a full day tomorrow from early morning to the late evening. I try to read & post during the midday as I have a short break there and hope to get home before the DL.
EDIT: X'd with Legate x2. And agree with him: this is stupid. Where are you people?
Nogrod
05-06-2009, 04:59 PM
Anyway Nogrod, you are just impossible.I could say the same of you... :rolleyes:
But I'm not going to say it.
I do appreaciate your effort. People do not call you a good player for nothing. You get ten points. But you're a baddie still. Sorry.
satansaloser2005
05-06-2009, 05:21 PM
Well this is....interesting. Veeeery interesting. The question is whether I should comment or not, at the risk of saying something I shouldn't. Does that make sense? No? Good, me neither.
Well from what I see there's one thing in this game that's for sure. The question is whether to vote for the nassssty Legate now or wait until some discussion's been had.
For now though I need to go, so I'll be back in four hours or so with some feedback.
Nogrod
05-06-2009, 05:37 PM
One more thing about this subject of Kent's death.
As I said I thought him somewhat suspicious in the end of yesterDay. But his last post quite left me totally baffled.
What he did at the last minute (voted Eönwë) was of course a right thing to do as it was a reaction to my revealment-post and I had shown that a baddie was actually trying to kill someone. There was no need for you Legate to sacrifice a fellow wolf there - and looking at how you played it was something you dared.
He got it and voted for Eönwë as he was the only other candidate to vote to save Eomer - who looked really innocent at that moment because of wolf-Legate's vote. (Which is not saying anything about Eönwë's guilt or innocence.)
But was he just a very clever and able villager or was he a baddie who was cunning enough to show himself being a good one at the last minute? That was what I wondered a lot as I did (and do) think he could be cabable of it.
Well, we know it now.
So you took away a cabable player who was able to react fast and do the right thing. Like you did with Kath. Lower profile but cabable. That's what you guys go for. Hah, I can see you calling for this tactics Legate...
And you were not after me last Night because you thought the ranger would save me and that a "no kill" last Night would basically prove my point. (Just hoping the ranger took a risk now - or that fex. Groin is the ranger and now comes up to do his duty)
Why you didn't pick Nerwen as she's innocent and also fits the description of lower profile but also cabable still beats me - unless it was because you really wanted to play this masquerade to the fullest and wished to give Legate a chance to make a game for it.
A good choice I must say. You play well as I've said already.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-06-2009, 05:51 PM
If Nogrod really is the seer, then we have both him and Legate with special roles in Lommy's game. . .
Maybe one should make theories based on the mods preferences instead of what has been said and done? Just a though. . .
satansaloser2005
05-06-2009, 06:02 PM
If Nogrod really is the seer, then we have both him and Legate with special roles in Lommy's game. . .
Maybe one should make theories based on the mods preferences instead of what has been said and done? Just a though. . .
As far as I understand Lommie randomized the roles. No special treatment was given to anyone regardless of their relationship to her.
In other news, I need to dash, because I'm already going to be late. I'll be back later tonight (my night, Noggie ;)) and will have comments then.
wilwarin538
05-06-2009, 06:23 PM
So.......wow....
First, I can't believe how wrong I was about Eomer, I feel so foolish for pursuing him so strongly and then being so terribly wrong.
Secondly, I trust Nogrod. That may seem odd considering that yesterDay I was unsure of him, and very sure of Legate. But I was also very sure of Eomer and was wrong, so....yeah. I'm gonna probably vote Legate.
I think either Sally, Rune or Eonwe would be good choices for a dream toNight, since they seem to have gotten the most attention over the last few Days.
I'm saying all this now because it will be another very busy Day for me, I seriously doubt I'll be able to make it back on tonight, and I'll only be able to jump on for about 15 minutes tomorrow (my morrow) to vote. Sorry about this. Day 4 I'll be on as much, if not more, as I was yesterDay.
Nienna
05-06-2009, 08:20 PM
My thoughts:
I think the village would be foolish not to trust Nogrod on this one. If he is not the seer and we kill off an innocent Legate then at least we will know that Nogrod is a wolf and can kill him the next day. If Nog is the seer and Legate is a wolf then killing him off is can only be good for the village. This means that after toDay we will know at least one wolf. We will then be able to analyze people's voting and playing with at least some concrete knowledge in hand. A final option would be if both Legate and Nogrod are wolfs and they are sacrificing Legate to keep Nog alive... but since no one was really suspecting Nog and since then the real seer would probably come forward... I'm thinking it's not this last option.
++Legate
I should be around for a while tomorrow my time to add input.
Nerwen
05-06-2009, 08:29 PM
Quick note: a lot of evil-looking posting happened after I was gone yesterDay... they can't all be wraiths, but I think especially Wilwa, Eönwë and Brinniel need looking at. Also possibly Shasta, just from the way Legate talks about him.
I do not have time to say much now, and in fact I'm mildly surprised to be still alive... but then I was surprised to find Lhuna alive yesterDay. Looks like the wolves are too afraid of the Ranger to pick anyone half-obvious. (Or else Lhuna's one of them.)
–Well, that's my theory. I want to hear others.
And let's not forget Sally... (Yes, half the village is looking evil!:rolleyes:)
Well this is....interesting. Veeeery interesting. The question is whether I should comment or not, at the risk of saying something I shouldn't. Does that make sense? No? Good, me neither.
Well from what I see there's one thing in this game that's for sure. The question is whether to vote for the nassssty Legate now or wait until some discussion's been had.
Why? Do you have some specific reason to think that Nogrod's making a false reveal, and that it isn't wolf-on-wolf?
Anyway–
++Legate of Amon Lanc.
I hope to be back later, but I can't promise anything– busy day ahead.
satansaloser2005
05-06-2009, 08:53 PM
Quick note: a lot of evil-looking posting happened after I was gone yesterDay... they can't all be wraiths, but I think especially Wilwa, Eönwë and Brinniel need looking at. Also possibly Shasta, just from the way Legate talks about him.
I do not have time to say much now, and in fact I'm mildly surprised to be still alive... but then I was surprised to find Lhuna alive yesterDay. Looks like the wolves are too afraid of the Ranger to pick anyone half-obvious. (Or else Lhuna's one of them.)
–Well, that's my theory. I want to hear others.
And let's not forget Sally... (Yes, half the village is looking evil!:rolleyes:)
Why? Do you have some specific reason to think that Nogrod's making a false reveal, and that it isn't wolf-on-wolf?
Anyway–
++Legate of Amon Lanc.
I hope to be back later, but I can't promise anything– busy day ahead.
I know it seems odd but I don't want to share all my thoughts on the subject. For now though, let's just say that I am almost positive it isn't wolf on wolf, and that I will (unless something completely random happens that I haven't foreseen) be voting for Legate. Nogrod's information is accurate, the end. I just don't like the way things are unfolding, etc. I know, it doesn't make much sense, but then again apparently I never do.
I'll put together a vote count from yesterDay when I get a chance. Until then!
satansaloser2005
05-06-2009, 08:57 PM
Sorry, that last post didn't quite come out right. I mean that as far as I know Noggie's information is accurate. I'm fallible like everyone else, doncha know.
I need a nap before I post any more or I'm gonna make even less sense than less sense than usual. ;)
satansaloser2005
05-06-2009, 09:01 PM
Oh, and Noggie, what do you think of all the other players? Not what do you 'know', but what are your opinions? I'd like to hear them in some detail, if you don't mind terribly. Thanks much, dear.
ETA: Triple post. Oh, joy. Anyway, I'll get to work on that vote count before I (hopefully) head to supper.
Nilpaurion Felagund
05-06-2009, 11:07 PM
May I be allowed to speak before Your Majesty, Werewolf, forty-fifth of that name?
Will we have a DAY where little is done save speculate on Nogrod and Legate, and afterwards voting for Legate? Will this not be an aid to those three others who wish to hide in the shadows? Will we waste a DAY given to us by the One in such manner?
I say nay to all these, respected members of the court of Werewolf. Therefore I propose that we use this DAY to analyse the words of Legate, and those who were somehow connected to him, or those he chose to ignore. Also, should we not be more fervent in looking among ourselves where these Wraiths would hide? We shall reconvene tomorrow less one foe, certainly, but also without our most powerful ally. (Unless the Ranger has risked not protecting our Seer, but I will not count on that.) I have witnessed the reigns of the noble ancestors of our esteemed Werewolf, and I have witnessed the fall of many an innocent after having a prophet revealed before them. Now the danger is greater for us, for our foes are more numerous. We must remain vigilant.
Your Highness, most esteemed members of his court, that is all.
Lhunardawen
05-06-2009, 11:38 PM
I'm terribly sorry to have missed yesterDay. And I've missed a lot! :eek:
But straight on to the most significant development:
Thanks for that, Nogrod. I trusted in your innocence Day 1, and I'm glad my trust had not been in vain. At first I wasn't sure it was such a good idea, bringing yourself forward this early into the game - considering that you've only caught a fourth of the wraiths - but then we could use the inevitable exchanges generated by your reveal to help us determine who may be Legate's fellow wraiths.
That said, sally is not looking too innocent right now. In fact, she's very suspicious. Why would an innocent hold her thoughts in this situation? It would have been quite careless of you as a wraith to say out loud that you don't want to say something you shouldn't, but that could be panic-induced. It's probably easy to panic when one of your colleagues has been revealed for what he is.
Anyway, I'll re-read yesterDay's votes and what I think of them.
satansaloser2005
05-06-2009, 11:43 PM
I'm terribly sorry to have missed yesterDay. And I've missed a lot! :eek:
But straight on to the most significant development:
Thanks for that, Nogrod. I trusted in your innocence Day 1, and I'm glad my trust had not been in vain. At first I wasn't sure it was such a good idea, bringing yourself forward this early into the game - considering that you've only caught a fourth of the wraiths - but then we could use the inevitable exchanges generated by your reveal to help us determine who may be Legate's fellow wraiths.
That said, sally is not looking too innocent right now. In fact, she's very suspicious. Why would an innocent hold her thoughts in this situation? It would have been quite careless of you as a wraith to say out loud that you don't want to say something you shouldn't, but that could be panic-induced. It's probably easy to panic when one of your colleagues has been revealed for what he is.
Anyway, I'll re-read yesterDay's votes and what I think of them.
What can I say? I don't trust it when things seem too simple. Everything's going too smoothly for my taste. (I'm not complaining so much as waiting for the inevitable problems we'll encounter later).
I need to go to bed. Good night, all! :)
Lhunardawen
05-06-2009, 11:48 PM
What can I say? I don't trust it when things seem too simple. Everything's going too smoothly for my taste. (I'm not complaining so much as waiting for the inevitable problems we'll encounter later).
I need to go to bed. Good night, all! :)
Ever heard of Ockham's Razor, dearie? ;)
Lhunardawen
05-07-2009, 12:03 AM
Oh, another thing. I was really baffled why Lhuna was still alive after Night2 as I knew Legate was a baddie and Lhuna made quite a one-track-minded attack on him on Day1 - and I can now see you baddies trying to capitalise on that choice of yours on N2.
Lhuna being one of the pack is a possibility though. I did entertain that possibility for a good time but after reading the thread again I felt there were better choices than her. And the sudden talk about wolves being afraid of a hunter trying to look like a seer (coming from Nerwen and Legate) seemed to fit - if Nerwen was a baddie that is. Now that she's not the question of Lhuna should be raised again.
I'm not sure we're speculating along the same lines here, Nogrod - maybe this is another issue of differing playing styles. Wouldn't they want NOT to kill me all the more for fear of being implicated in my death? I'm not certain of Legate's bluffing abilities so I can't say if he could have succeeded in defending himself after killing me.
Of course you can't take my word for it - although that's what you have your dreams for, eh? - but I will tell you anyway that I am innocent.
Nerwen
05-07-2009, 01:20 AM
I'm not sure we're speculating along the same lines here, Nogrod - maybe this is another issue of differing playing styles. Wouldn't they want NOT to kill me all the more for fear of being implicated in my death?
I think Nogrod means he's surprised you weren't killed as a suspected Seer.
Anyone around?
Nerwen
05-07-2009, 01:26 AM
Oh, and I want to hear more from you, Sally.
If you know, or suspect, something, then you'd better come out with it.
Otherwise, you know, it looks a lot like you're stalling...;)
Nilpaurion Felagund
05-07-2009, 01:59 AM
I have had my servant search the archives for the previous votings, and this is what he has gathered:
On DAY 1, Legate has voted for Izzy eight minutes before the deadline, giving her a second vote (first was from Rune), and putting her in a shared lead with Sally and Nogrod. Had Sally been a Wraith he would probably have voted for Nogrod instead . . . There are many loopholes with this idea, like other Wraiths being around to lead the vote to a conclusion more desirable to them, however there is that plain fact.
On DAY 2, Legate has voted for Eomer three minutes before the deadline, giving him his third vote (Brinn and Wilwa giving him the first two), and putting him in the lead (with Sally in second place). When Nogrod and Kent voted for Eönwë, putting him in a shared lead with Eomer, Eönwë came and voted to save himself, sealing Eomer's fate. It is interesting to note that, this time, Legate 'saved' Sally, and once again gave a fatal vote for another innocent.
Also, I seem to be detecting some strange collusion between Wilwa and Legate, especially on DAY 2. (Not just in the voting.) I would like to think, however, that Wilwa might have found her DAY 1 vote an easy way to cast a Wraith-on-Wraith--but the fact remains that the DAY 1 voting was a tight race until the very end, and therefore a second vote for someone would have possibly been a fatal one. An interesting idea I would follow up on.
Legate's posts will be next on the analysis. He seems to have made a list each day, c'est interessant.
Nilpaurion Felagund
05-07-2009, 02:21 AM
DAY 2 (times are in GMT +8, known innocents are underlined.)
23:56 Nerwen - Sally
Sally - 1
00:35 Rune - Eönwë
Sally - 1, Eönwë - 1
01:38 Wilwa - Eomer
Sally - 1, Eönwë - 1, Eomer - 1
02:10 Brinn - Eomer
Sally - 1, Eönwë - 1, Eomer - 2
03:12 Eomer - Brinn
Sally - 1, Eönwë - 1, Eomer - 2, Brinn - 1
03:53 Nienna - Sally
Sally - 2, Eönwë - 1, Eomer - 2, Brinn - 1
03:55 Nilp - Eönwë
Sally - 2, Eönwë - 2, Eomer - 2, Brinn - 1
03:57 Legate - Eomer
Sally - 2, Eönwë - 2, Eomer - 3, Brinn - 1
03:59 Nogrod - Eönwë
Sally - 2, Eönwë - 3, Eomer - 3, Brinn - 1
04:00 Kent - Eönwë
Sally - 2, Eönwë - 4, Eomer - 3, Brinn - 1
04:00 Eönwë - Eomer
Sally - 2, Eönwë - 4, Eomer - 4, Brinn - 1
Did not vote: Groin, Lhuna, Shasta.
I see, so the dashing Scot's fate was decided by the Fortunes. How cruel.
Nogrod
05-07-2009, 04:17 AM
Wouldn't they want NOT to kill me all the more for fear of being implicated in my death?Well they would love to not kill you if they suspected you being the seer going after one of them in a way you did. But they couldn't afford not to kill you if they actually suspected you. Yeah, Legate would probably be dead meat after you turned out the seer but that's a price they need to pay not to give the seer a chance to get more of them.
Now the interesting part is why didn't they kill you Lhuna? Either they didn't believe you to be the seer strongly enough. Or then you are one of the baddies and that was a preplanned thing you did on Day1.
Sorry, I got to run again.
Nilpaurion Felagund
05-07-2009, 06:12 AM
I just realised Wilwa voted before Lhuna.
Which means if she intended a Wraith-on-Wraith she could have done so.
But since in Lhuna's only post before Wilwa's vote she mentioned only Legate in a negative light, a Wilwawraith would have avoided casting that risky second vote.
In any case, a perusing of the archives indicates Wilwa's innocence--that is, she is helpful, thinking, and, more importantly, she is not being vague with her suspicions.
Nerwen
05-07-2009, 06:19 AM
Now the interesting part is why didn't they kill you Lhuna? Either they didn't believe you to be the seer strongly enough. Or then you are one of the baddies and that was a preplanned thing you did on Day1.
This is Legate yesterDay (#148), replying to my post on possible reasons why Kath had been killed:
The Hunter idea is interesting - however, would the Wraiths really be so much afraid of that? (In that case, they shouldn't dare to kill anybody at all! - Well, not that there would be anything wrong about that ;) ) I mean, there is still the full number of us (okay, now minus two; it was minus one at Night) - so I think mathematically it's not that big chance. The less if the Hunter would manage to pick a Wraith as his target. Okay, another thing to consider might be, let's say, avoiding people who might be likely to be protected by the Ranger - but again, not quite sure who would that be after yesterDay, and also, the same problem as with the Hunter - there's still quite many of us, so the chance is quite small. So I really cannot think of such a reason being this. It really might be just some Wraiths playing it safe from the very beginning, or something else, like there being no better pick as everybody else would suspect some Wraith etc... but that seems a bit farfetched to me too. Hmm... maybe the opportunities to frame somebody else were just too small, so the Wraiths simply would not use the chance? Can't say.
This looks rather as if it might be something let slip from the Nightly discussion... so maybe the reason's in there somewhere?
Note, though, that he seems awfully obtuse about my theory (that the wraiths were afraid that a Seer-like person might really be the Hunter), apparently not realising that it would make him the main suspect. I thought at the time, "Well, he's probably not a wraith then, or he'd be jumpier". But this is Legate we're talking about; I should have known how cool he can play it. The rest may be just him babbling to distract me.
EDIT: X'd with Nilp
wilwarin538
05-07-2009, 07:31 AM
I just realised Wilwa voted before Lhuna.
Which means if she intended a Wraith-on-Wraith she could have done so.
But since in Lhuna's only post before Wilwa's vote she mentioned only Legate in a negative light, a Wilwawraith would have avoided casting that risky second vote.
In any case, a perusing of the archives indicates Wilwa's innocence--that is, she is helpful, thinking, and, more importantly, she is not being vague with her suspicions.
Thank you.
So I just had time to skim everything. It seems everyone is trusting Nogrod, which is good. And like someone said earlier (Nerwen? Nienna? Always get those two confused), even if he's lying and Legate is innocent, then we'll have a Wraith tomorrow. So:
++ Legate
Hope to see you all next Day.
Brinniel
05-07-2009, 08:11 AM
I'm inclined to trust Nogrod, though I still don't really get why he revealed when he did. Was he really that concerned he'd be a potential Night kill? I couldn't see that. Anyway, we'll know the truth soon enough. And if this is wolf-on-wolf, we'll figure it out if Noggie doesn't die or get attacked in the next few Nights.
++Legate
Btw, a comment about Sally's behaviour. She's acting odd, but I don't think it's wolfish behaviour; it seems a bit too obvious. She's been busy I think, so perhaps she's just deprived of sleep.
That's all from me toDay. I agree that this Day should be used to find the other wolves. I'm sorry I can't be of help with that; explanation on the admin thread.
Nilpaurion Felagund
05-07-2009, 08:36 AM
In my previous post I was referring to the first DAY's voting. So clarified, I shall proceed to my actual post.
~*~
Ah, the power of the nebulous . . .
First of all, I sympathise with Nogrod's frustration when he urges others to post, but for a rather more circumspect reason. In Legate's two lists he dismisses more than half of the village as silent; some of his kind might easily be hiding among them.
This (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595159&postcount=44) is Legate's DAY 1 list. Setting aside the dead, the prophet and Nerwen, and the silent:
Nienna - despite the first sort of exchange with Nog, I am inclined now to see her behavior as genuine, and not as a particular intention to fly under the radar. Thus, hope to see her posting more in the future: like I said, this far, the picture seems genuine.
. . .
wilwarin538 - the first impression is somewhat positive, I think she is trying to make some input, I only once again hope that there will be more in the future. It is yet quite some time till the end of Day 1, so let's see...
. . .
Rune Son of Bjarne - he actually reminds me of the typical Rune who weighs arguments of everybody... so he makes me feel him as rather innocent.
Lhunardawen - I guess my dear wife should learn her place, but now I would like to see more than one-(or few-)liner input from her.
. . .
satansaloser2005 - this far, she's being more or less like her usual self, though it seems to me a bit defensive with her reaction to Brinn's vote, which was, like Brinn said, random. Well, whatever - let's see what comes in the future.He is being ambiguous with his statements, but it is merely 14 hours since the opening of the court, so I suppose that would account for some of that.
This (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595478&postcount=190) is Legate's DAY 2 list. Once again, setting aside the dead, the prophet and Nerwen, and the silent:
wilwarin538 - with the recent posting with Eomer and all I am becoming again a bit more confused, so I don't know. Maybe it would do good to look at her in total... or then maybe who knows, as sometimes she seems to me quite hard to get. "Chaotic."
. . .
Rune Son of Bjarne - looks still more or less the same to me, like a good Rune
. . .
satansaloser2005 - posts a bit more scarcely, so it's hard to say now. I would certainly like her to post more: otherwise, just sticking with my feelings from yesterDay.He says even less about the members of the court, which is a mark of an evil being not wishing to hide in silence, but in the spoken word instead. (Of course, having a silent village does not help. I fear much blood would be shed by the silence ere this court closes.)
I shall continue to examine the archives for more of his statements.
Legate of Amon Lanc
05-07-2009, 09:23 AM
Okay, well, I am here, but I guess this is over for me already - practically everybody voted for me now, and I am not very sure if it can be changed.
That said, I could vote too, although it will be seemingly only symbolical:
++Nogrod
But you all will be doing the same toMorrow just as soon as you see that you lynched an Ordo.
Okay, it is really silly that everybody is so easy to believe Nogrod: I think you should use some thinking of your own and at least ponder the other possibility, but most people (except perhaps for Rune or something) basically appear and dump me immediately. If you act like this, then practically any charismatic enough person could manipulate you folks. Like Brinn said:
I'm inclined to trust Nogrod, though I still don't really get why he revealed when he did. Was he really that concerned he'd be a potential Night kill? I couldn't see that. Anyway, we'll know the truth soon enough.
Well that's exactly what I am saying, and you will see. What reason did he really have to reveal? Moreover, the fact that he did it by the end of the Day basically prevented any reaction among the people and so everybody went to sleep at Night with the idea of me being a Wraith already there with no contest.
Nogrod's relation to Nerwen should be looked at, too.
Will we have a DAY where little is done save speculate on Nogrod and Legate, and afterwards voting for Legate? Will this not be an aid to those three others who wish to hide in the shadows? Will we waste a DAY given to us by the One in such manner?
Now that's a good point, yes. But seems nobody did anything much.
And I just hope the real Seer remains alive for some just reasonable amount of time.
satansaloser2005
05-07-2009, 09:32 AM
And I just hope the real Seer remains alive for some just reasonable amount of time.
If I have anything to say about it, they will. And no, that wasn't a ranger hint, so don't even try it. I rather like it when seers stay alive, doncha know. Very handy creatures. :)
Nice try, Leggie darling, but you're toast. French, erm, Czech Toast. :p
Let's start discussing who'll be our suspects toMorrow, okay? That way we're more productive than we've been. I like this plan! :)
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-07-2009, 10:25 AM
++Legate
I never liked him anyway. . .
Lommy might have said it was random, but I cannot let the thought go that maybe the special roles where picked after some criteria. Unfortunately I have not been around the werewolf games much or the downs in genneral, so I don't know much about who interacts much or what people have done in ww games.
I could imagine Brinn as a person Lommy would give a special role, maybe Sally as well.
Ok I know this theory has very little merrit, but I just cannot seem to let it go.
Lhunardawen
05-07-2009, 10:40 AM
The Eomer voters:
wilwa: Eomer's post in which he speculates on Kath's dead didn't sit well with her, serious misremembering (if such a word exists) of his posts which she later admitted, "I still don't feel too awesome about you. Therefore, I'm just gonna leave it at that."
It's an early vote, so it could be anything, but the reasoning is...odd. Oh well, can't say I never voted based on gut feel myself.
Brinn: gut feeling, he was acting overly defensive and seemed to go after those who suspect or disagree with him.
This is a more sensible (albeit still wrong) vote.
Legate: wraith. no need for this.
Eonwe: to save his "innocent" self
Fair enough, but after posting that joke list shortly before DL I'm inclined to suspect him.
As for the others, I'm still not too sure about Nienna, Rune is present but slipping my radar and this is scary, and sally is most likely my target for tomorrow. YesterDay she had quite a few posts, barely any of which were helpful. And I still find that "no comment" remark she had earlier toDay suspicious.
So what's the technical term for killing your own husband again?
++LEGATE OF AMON LANC
Good night (already morning, actually), everyone.
Nerwen
05-07-2009, 11:35 AM
So what's the technical term for killing your own husband again?.
It your case, it's regicide.:cool:
Legate of Amon Lanc
05-07-2009, 11:52 AM
Lommy might have said it was random, but I cannot let the thought go that maybe the special roles where picked after some criteria. Unfortunately I have not been around the werewolf games much or the downs in genneral, so I don't know much about who interacts much or what people have done in ww games.
No, and now completely truthfully, she randomised the votes totally.
So what's the technical term for killing your own husband again?
Disgusting.
All right, whatever. It's been nice to play with you all people, really it was :) I actually remained alive for far longer than I did in the last few games I played. And it's been quite refreshing and enjoyable to play.
I wish you all remaining ones to have a nice rest of the game... and to some of you (but certainly not Nogrod) good luck.
Nerwen
05-07-2009, 12:03 PM
All right, whatever. It's been nice to play with you all people, really it was :).
The pleasure is mutual, your Majesty.:)
Nogrod
05-07-2009, 12:12 PM
My last meeting closed earlier than I feared so I can take part in the last hours at least to read through toDay's posting and trying to give you my views on people.
Sadly I know only the roles of Nerwen and Legate, so of others I can only give you my impressions and suspicions - which are susceptible to be wrong as with anyone. But you'll be able to trust there is no malicious intent there behind my ponderings and that I have no "tactical" reasons to withold any suspicions trying to cover my own life for the Night to come.
I wish you all remaining ones to have a nice rest of the game... and to some of you (but certainly not Nogrod) good luck.:)
Well, luck will have nothing to do with my death on the coming Night - unless all your mates forget to send the kill to Lommy. :D
Okay, I'll go back reading what's been happening so far to toDay since I left.
Eönwë
05-07-2009, 12:23 PM
Good...erm... evening... to you all.
I don't really like trusting seer reveals too often, so I don't really like the way the village immediately believes him. He could just be a manipulative wolf with a well-though-out case. Werewolf is after all a manipulative game so it's best to be wary.
Nevertheless, I've thought before that something seems a little wrong with Legate this game, and I guess this is our chance to test it (I doubt we could lynch anyone else by now anyway). At least then we will know the identity of at least one wolf (Legate or Nogrod).
And even if Nogrod is a wolf, and the real seer hasn't spoken up yet (and why should they, they're in no danger) then at least the true identity of the seer will be kept hidden and they can continue finding out roles.
However, I am inclined to believe Nogrod, so:
++Legate
edit: x-ed with Nerwen #283 et après- something strange happened to my computer
satansaloser2005
05-07-2009, 12:59 PM
Hey, I'm sorry to slack but this day (day, not Day, mind you) turned really sour so I'm not really in the mood to analyze a bunch of stuff. Assuming I'm alive toMorrow and that I'm able to talk more I will give you some hopefully lovely opinions on things, but for now I just need to relax. Sorry again.
My vote is obvious though:
++Legate
You were clever, but not quite clever enough for the seer. Have a nice death. :)
Nogrod
05-07-2009, 01:10 PM
I think either Sally, Rune or Eonwe would be good choices for a dream toNight, since they seem to have gotten the most attention over the last few Days.I'll consider your suggestion... :rolleyes:
If Nogrod really is the seer, then we have both him and Legate with special roles in Lommy's game. . .You bet that occured to me too at the moment Lommy told me Legate's role... So following that logic you'd be quite right with Brinn and maybe Sally; but then we should also consider you Rune! :D
Will we have a DAY where little is done save speculate on Nogrod and Legate, and afterwards voting for Legate? Will this not be an aid to those three others who wish to hide in the shadows? Will we waste a DAY given to us by the One in such manner?Exactly. More could have been done toDay... and more still can be done. Just come forwards people and share your ideas. ToMorrow you need to lynch someone so why not get into it already?
I think I may have found something interesting from Nilp's listings... Just a minute and I'll go back and check.
Nogrod
05-07-2009, 01:28 PM
Nienna - despite the first sort of exchange with Nog, I am inclined now to see her behavior as genuine, and not as a particular intention to fly under the radar. Thus, hope to see her posting more in the future: like I said, this far, the picture seems genuine.
Nienna - is basically not around. Now, I would not like to start about that, but I think people who are silent should try not to be that silent anymore, because otherwise nobody is able to read anything about them.
But then after voting three minutes before the DL he thinks it fir to post this at the .00 hours: Now, one more thing to say - I feel quite somewhat better about Nienna right now, basically because she started to post. People like Shasta though make me slightly uncomfortableSo why did he feel the need to say that as he had never actually said he suspects her or feels bad about her? Just feel-good factor stuff towards Nienna or what? It's hard to believe he'd make that kind of eyebrow-raising comment on his mate at that kind of situation... (eyebrow-raising in a sense that as he'd be found out pretty soon everyone would notice that little bit) Or then again? *drives me crazy*
So yeah, it was interesting but sadly very inconclusive.
Nogrod
05-07-2009, 01:36 PM
Oh my. The time is running.
Now where is everyone? *A sudden feeling of dejá-vu*
Eönwë
05-07-2009, 01:54 PM
Where is everyone! only 10 minutes to DL!
By the way Noggie, I believe it's "déjà vu"
Nogrod
05-07-2009, 01:56 PM
Okay, I said quite a lot about people in my post #252 (on page seven).
Also from toDay I would say that those who were keenest to lynch Legate or to mention how much they trust me are probably the ones you should watch out for the most. :(
There might have been a sort of incubation period in the beginning of the Day where the wolves looked how the minds of people would develop before taking any real stance *coughSallycough*, but they might have already made a deal during the Night who would rush to back me so that person would look really good later if there was actual skirmishing about the issue - as the truth would be revealed soon enough whichever way toDay's voting would go.
Looked at from that angle...
Sally yes, oddly fades the situation...
Rune looks grumpy and indeed innocentish (or then he is just clecverly waiting for how people will react first before committing himself to either view).
Wilwa is interesting as well: First, I can't believe how wrong I was about Eomer, I feel so foolish for pursuing him so strongly and then being so terribly wrong.
Secondly, I trust Nogrod. That may seem odd considering that yesterDay I was unsure of him, and very sure of Legate. But I was also very sure of Eomer and was wrong, so....yeah. I'm gonna probably vote Legate. Looks a bit deliberate to mee if you ask.
Later she still added this (adding then approval for Nienna's idea that this will be safe anyway): It seems everyone is trusting Nogrod, which is good.
Nienna sounds at least reasonable: I think the village would be foolish not to trust Nogrod on this one. If he is not the seer and we kill off an innocent Legate then at least we will know that Nogrod is a wolf and can kill him the next day.Which sure is no mark of innocence. But it looks pretty good.
Nilp calls us to action and kind of takes the situation for granted. Looks pretty good indeed. But he could pull that.
But Lhuna really raises my eyebrows: Thanks for that, Nogrod. I trusted in your innocence Day 1, and I'm glad my trust had not been in vain.A bit overdone?
Brinn looks like pretty safe and cosiderate: I'm inclined to trust Nogrod, though I still don't really get why he revealed when he did. Was he really that concerned he'd be a potential Night kill? I couldn't see that. Anyway, we'll know the truth soon enough. And if this is wolf-on-wolf, we'll figure it out if Noggie doesn't die or get attacked in the next few Nights.Which would be perfect for a wolf as well.
Eönwë indeed looks pretty good with all his reservations!
The reason for this little excercise? The wolves know I'm right and they feel some pressure to be on the goiod side of people toMorrow so they might overexaggerate their enthusiasm. But an ordo should be actually a bit suspicious about things going this smoothly (I would be at least).
Try to cross-examine these with fex. how Eomer suspicions were born, kept up and deepened yesterDay and look if you see the same people in similar kind of roles.
And check yesterDay's voting, especislly the last suspicions & votes (and discrepancies within them) - and add them to these two issues.
Something could be found from there.
Nogrod
05-07-2009, 01:59 PM
By the way Nggie, I believe it's "déjà vu"You maybe right. Something looked wrong there...
Well, even if no one's around (except Eönwë), good night and good luck!
It was fun as long as it lasted.
I'll be holding my thumb to you from the tomb! :)
Have fun!
Thinlómien
05-07-2009, 02:00 PM
Stop posting. Legate was lynched and the narration is coming in five minutes...
Thinlómien
05-07-2009, 02:12 PM
Captain Nogrod had everybody's undivided attention when he told about the visions he had received in his sleep. ”Queen Nerwen – good, King Legate – no good,” he explained. ”Nogrod no good,” Legate grumbled, but no one quite believed his claims of innocence and insistences that Nogrod must be lying.
So, when the night drew closer, the guests were one-minded about who should go. Even Legate's wife, Queen Lhuna was happy to advocate the death of her husband. ”So what's the technical term for killing your own husband again? ” she asked in a sweet voice. ”Regicide,” said Nerwen. ”Disgusting,” said Legate.
”So, how shall we kill him?” asked Eönwë.
”I think we should go for the democratic model – everybody can take a dagger and stab the murderer,” said Rune.
”Let's just get it done,” sighed Sally.
Some of the guests drew daggers of their own, and a few went to the kitchen to find heavy kitchen knives.
Legate looked at the dozen people surrounding him, a small sea of short blades glimmering in the light of the setting sun. A small sea of pitifully short blades. He laughed. ”Am I to die like this?” He shook his head. ”Stabbed by twelve people, some of them wielding kitchen knives?” He laughed again. ”I always had my enemies, but I expected to die on the battlefield with a sword in my hand... how naive of me, I see that now.” With a smooth move, he drew a sword that had been cleverly hidden in his clothes. The blade was long, elegant and slightly curved... several people were gasping for air when they recognised it as one of the swords that had been left by the table with Lady Lómiel's body.
”You will not kill me like that!” Legate said. ”Truly, I am not any random petty king whom you can displace as you will, I am the greatest king and the most powerful warrior in all of the southern lands and I will have eternal glory! Is there anyone who dares to fight me in a duel? Or are you all cowards?”
There were angry murmurs, and before anyone else could react, Captain Nogrod stood up. He drew his cutlass and eyed King Legate viciously. ”Aye, I will fight you and kill you and cut that pitiful babbling about your own excellence!”
Reluctantly, others made way and the two paced around, swinging their blades and keeping close eye contact. Then Legate struck. The blow was easily parried by Nogrod. Then Nogrod struck and Legate parried. Striking, parrying, striking, parrying, nothing seemed to happen. Until Legate hit Nogrod's blade so hard that the pirate captain dropped it. With a malicious grin, the Haradian aimed a vicious blow at the direction of his unprotected enemy.
”Noooooooo!” cried the warlord Groin. ”Let me die instead!” And with a terrible speed, he dashed between the two fighters and Legate's blade hit him instead Nogrod, cutting deep into his stomach. Meanwhile, Nogrod used the distraction to his advance, picked his cutlass and attacked Legate again. Too late the rebelling king realised his sword was stuck on Groin and he had nothing to lift in between himself and Nogrod's cutlass. He fell with the strength of Nogrod's blow and lay on the floor, a pool of blood forming around him.
”There... will be... revenge,” he managed to say before drawing his last breath.
To their horror, the others saw his body vanish into thin air as if it had never been: only a pile of clothes remained. There was terrible cry piercing the air and a cold wind in the hall.
They had got rid of one enemy, but no one felt like cheering.
”I say we go to sleep,” Nerwen said after a while.
”Yeah, good idea,” Nienna agreed.
”What about poor Groin?” Brinniel asked.
”He seems pretty dead,” Lhuna said. ”Let's have the housekeeper take care of him and that... pile of rugs.”
~*~
Dead
Lommy (mod) - Lady Lómiel Starbrow, the hostess – killed on Night1
Isabellkya (ordo) - lynched on Day1
Kath (ordo) – killed on Night2
Eomer of the Rohirrim (ordo) - lynched on Day2
Kent2010 (ordo) - Black Númenórean scam artist - killed on Night3
Legate of Amon Lanc (ringwraith) - rebelling Haradian King - lynched on Day3
Groin Redbeard (ordo) - Variag Warlord of Khand - modfired on Day3
Alive
Nienna - pirate
Nogrod - Corsair Captain "The Cat O' Nine tails of Ethir Anduin"
Shastanis Althreduin - King of the Sea
wilwarin538 - sorceress
Nerwen - Queen of the Sea
Nilpaurion Felagund - fussy courtier
Rune Son of Bjarne - Tivo the Sorceror
Lhunardawen - rebelling Haradian Queen
satansaloser2005
Eönwë
Brinniel
It's Night4 now. Ringwraiths, you may plot. RW's and gifteds, you may send me your picks.
Thinlómien
05-08-2009, 02:01 PM
Tonight, there were only three of them in the salon.
”Do you feel any different?” one of them asked after a long silence.
”A bit more lonesome,” another replied. No one laughed at the feeble joke.
There was another silence.
”I don't like this,” the first speaker said. ”I feel as if I wasn't in total control of all my thoughts... I'm losing grasp of reality. The world seems hazy and only at night everything seems sharp... almost too sharp. And...”
”Enough,” said the third cloaked figure, shifting uncomfortably in his chair.
A third silence.
”So, who shall we kill tonight?” asked the one who had attempted a joke earlier.
”I have a brilliant idea,” said the first speaker, grinning.
”I think we know...” said the third speaker, grinning back.
~*~
In the morning, the guests walked downstairs again. To their surpise, they saw Lord Thinroz sitting at the table. ”Good morning,” he said. ”Again somebody missing, is there?” he asked and laughed grimly.
They looked around. Everybody seemed to be there. Except... ”Where's my Nilp?” asked Sally. At the very same moment, the housekeeper appeared a doorstep, her face pale, holding a blood-stained pillow.
”He's gone, I'm afraid,” Brinn concluded.
~*~
Dead
Lommy (mod) - Lady Lómiel Starbrow, the hostess – killed on Night1
Isabellkya (ordo) - lynched on Day1
Kath (ordo) – killed on Night2
Eomer of the Rohirrim (ordo) - lynched on Day2
Kent2010 (ordo) - Black Númenórean scam artist - killed on Night3
Legate of Amon Lanc (ringwraith) - rebelling Haradian King - lynched on Day3
Groin Redbeard (ordo) - Variag Warlord of Khand - modfired on Day3
Nilpaurion Felagund (ordo) - fussy courtier - killed on Night4
Alive
Nienna - pirate
Nogrod - Corsair Captain "The Cat O' Nine tails of Ethir Anduin"
Shastanis Althreduin - King of the Sea
wilwarin538 - sorceress
Nerwen - Queen of the Sea
Rune Son of Bjarne - Tivo the Sorceror
Lhunardawen - rebelling Haradian Queen
satansaloser2005
Eönwë
Brinniel
Day4 has started. Everybody, you may discuss. Hunter, you may change your pick if you wish.
satansaloser2005
05-08-2009, 02:02 PM
Nilp! My sweet, darling husband! *weeps* Okay, that tears it. For him to not only die, but to die at the hands of his sister, is just too much to bear.
I'll do a vote count in a bit, but first an announcement. Stay tuned.
satansaloser2005
05-08-2009, 02:03 PM
Okay, so here's what I know.
Brinn: innocent
Nog: innocent
Legate: wolf
Lhuna: wolf
Everything should be in order, and if you have questions feel free to ask. First, an explanation....
I appreciate Noggie's devotion the last Day or so, and imagine my surprise when he posts and says that he's dreamt Legate! :eek: However, since I already knew he was innocent and that Legate was in fact a wolf I didn't want to say anything to the contrary. That was of course the reason for my hesitation though, and I'm saying something toDay because:
A: I'm not sure how long the entire fake seer thing (handy though it was) can last
B: since Lhuna's now confirmed as a wolf as well as Legate, I think it's worth the risk
C: hopefully there will be some confusion about who to kill, since it's possible that they may not know who to believe (for example, it's possible that I'm faking instead of Noggie)
D: I'm stressed because of finals and frankly I'd rather like to get the stress of all the secrecy off my system. Besides, if I die I'll have more time for finals. ;) Also, I've been rather skittish (as you all know I am when I have a role) and I'm afraid if I don't say something now you won't believe me later. Besides, at least now I can impart some knowledge to you before I (or Nog, though preferrably neither) go.
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 02:06 PM
What the...!!! :confused:
These wolves keep on making surprises...
Wilwa is innocent.
I'm going to watch the ice-hockey game to the end but will then be around for more.
EDIT: X'd with Sally's second post...
satansaloser2005
05-08-2009, 02:08 PM
Wilwa is innocent.
I'm of much the same opinion. Great minds and all that. :)
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 02:10 PM
This is getting weird indeed... Very much so.
The wolves play a very intricicate game I see.
Back soon.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-08-2009, 02:12 PM
I too am the seer, but I have dreamt of my self every night. . . well, and about Jean Claude Van Damme once, but that was not intentional.
Seriously guys, you are making my head hurt. . . I am at a total loss.
satansaloser2005
05-08-2009, 02:16 PM
I too am the seer, but I have dreamt of my self every night. . . well, and about Jean Claude Van Damme once, but that was not intentional.
Seriously guys, you are making my head hurt. . . I am at a total loss.
Oh, really? I tried to dream of him and didn't get a PM back from Lommie. What's his role? :p
*hugs you*
Don't worry, I'll make it all better, dearie.
Speaking of which, I'll be here for the next hour or two but after that I'll be gone for several hours. Just as an FYI.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-08-2009, 03:15 PM
*reappears from the closet*
No, I'm the Seer.
...What do you mean you don't believe me?
...In any case, I'm back. *goes to find something to post about*
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 05:31 PM
Sorry this took so long. I was distracted by an interesting radio program... but no one seems to be around anyway...
Where are you guys? *one more déjà vu*
Seriously guys, you are making my head hurt. . . I am at a total loss.Just check my avvie... I have kind of thought whether I should change it back to some more traditional "Nogrod-avvie" but now I think I have to keep it. *My brain hurts*
So maybe you Sally are now trying to sway the baddies off me by volunteering to be a seer toDay... That is indeed the tactics I hoped the baddies would think about me in relation to Lhuna yesterDay, even if I never actually believed the wolves would bite that (well I tried to overdo my seerness and the fact I was not going to be with you players any more to raise their suspicions that I was actually faking it but I never believed it would work).
But did you baddies after all belive I was actually an ordo protecting Lhuna (my dream come true!!!)? That would explain the boldness you Sally came forwards at the first moments of the Day.
Well, there you made a mistake because I am actually the seer indeed. And now the ranger may help me the Night to come.
But why didn't you kill Lhuna then? Back to that in a moment...
Well, if you and your friends had a better plan - which I think highly probable - you still made a mistake proposing that Lhuna is a wolf. It's not a question of who you claim is a wolf; it's that you claim you know a wolf when you just can't know it.
If you try to dress as a seer and you're just a plain ordo you can't say someone is a wolf. Really. If people will believe in you they will kill that someone you can't know who s/he is. An innocent would not do that in her first (well, second) post of the Day if she was just pretending to be the seer.
Now you actually "gave us a wolf" meaning you were ready to get her lynched if we believed you. So as there could be a possibility people believed in you (as there is no cobbler-role involved) then Lhuna must be a wolf in the end? Otherwise your plan would backfire immediately.
I know not what Lhuna is, but I know you can't know it either as I'm the seer and you're not - unless you're a wolf and she is one as well.
*Goddammit, I wawered between Sally and Wilwa (and Brinn) for my seemingly insignificant dream and ended up with Wilwa after a choice of a minute... thinking that the strong previous reactions to her might tell something. Had I just checked you Sally instead!*
So sorry Sally. You must be a wolf now or a very-very clumsy innocent. Being totally clumsy is the only explanation I can find for your "reveal" if you're not a ringwraith. And I don't believe you to be the first one.
And especially if you'd nevertheless be that clumsy, you wouldn't have never thought of playing the mirror-image of the phantasy I had the wolves could think I was doing with Lhuna and play the "false-seer" in that way... and to try to lure the baddies onto yourself with that - and being confident enough to pick Lhuna as a baddie to go for it. And somehow your culprit - of all the people around just happened to be Lhuna!
That's not the thinking of a clumsy player!
And it's pretty near to the scenario where you would have tried to make one of you two to look innocent making us believe that the one staying alive after another one was dead must be innocent!
So if you're a wolf indeed, then I will really start suspecting Lhuna... But I'd start with you Sally first.
Happily you put me into the category of an innocent, as trying to rub me the right way? Well that was a bad move. I was not impressed by you calling me an innocent. And your scheme will backfire as from now on you can't try to argue I'm a baddie during this Day (or any other) even if I jump on you or Lhuna as you've already claimed me innocent by your "dream"... :)
... just wondering whether it would be possible you really didn't think of that... :o :confused:
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-08-2009, 06:03 PM
If Nogrod is the seer, then what sense does it make for the wraiths to leave him alive? Obviously it would be lovely for them to watch as we lynched our own seer, but still. . .
Of course Nogrod could be a wraith, with their relatively high numbers they could definitly afford to sacrifice one in order to draw out the seer. (but obviously then non of them would be the seer)
Then there is the chance of Sally being an ordo trying to draw attention away from the seer, but what kind of sense would that make?
What I am trying to say is this: the more I think about this situation the less sense it makes.
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 06:14 PM
I needed to check the rules as I became a bit insecure.
But there is only one seer in this game.
So sorry Sally. You can't be one as I'm the one.
Also as you say you have one baddie it means you can't be a goodie trying to "fake the seer" to protect me as an ordo would not fake being sure who to kill.
I will not vote for you just now as I will have time tomorrow to look at how things are going but I will strongly advice you being lynched.
But you people should post indeed! What is this?
Also your suggestion Sally that Lhuna is a wolf bears to be marked down as if you're a ringwraith it might be Lhuna is one as well. Otherwise your act would be plain suicidal.
Hey Rune, you seem to address just the same question I'm trying to cope with. And btw. this is not the first instance the wolves have tried to baffle us... :confused:
But what you say about numbers... I think that might be important indeed. I thought of going to sleep but maybe I'll give it a time to check the scenarios...
wilwarin538
05-08-2009, 06:34 PM
Wow, uhm, just popping in quickly, I'll be able to read everything more thorougly later on.
Just wanted to say one thing. Perhaps Lommy messed with the roles without telling us, just to cause the confusion, so added a second seer? Or perhaps there is a wolf-seer?? Or someone who knows the seer's dreams?
I don't know, it's so weird.....I'll be back a little later to look at everything far closer.
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 06:38 PM
Okay, here's the deal from my point of view...
Known innocents:
Nogrod - the seer
wilwarin538 - ordo
Nerwen - ordo
Unknown (three of whom be wolves and including the ranger & the hunter):
Nienna
Shastanis Althreduin
Rune Son of Bjarne
Lhunardawen - a wolf by implication?
satansaloser2005 - lying eg. a wolf?
Eönwë
Brinniel
But the basic numbers are now 7-3
The worst case scenario:
We miss toDay = 6-3
Ranger doesn't get it during the Night = 5-3
We miss the lynch toMorrow = 4-3
Ranger misses at Night = Game over.
The best scenario:
We lynch a wolf toDay = 7-2
Ranger protects me = 7-2 (or 6-2 if the wolves continue their line - but then there should be added one more known innocent or a wolf)
We lynch another wolf = 7-1 (6-1)
etc...
Okay. I can see now why the wolves are ready to play it "all or nothing" as the scenarios are like live and die within two Days/Nights.
Funny: it looked like our odds were really bad in then beginning - and I had the feeling of us being against the wall all the time - but looking at the numbers we're looking pretty good right now - if we just pick one toDay.
And with all the probabilities the ranger can save me the next Night as well so even if we miss toDay we will have 6(5)-3 tomorrow with either two known innocents and a wolf - or three known innocents. And that is going to ease our voting a lot.
So I just need to pull my act together and start delivering. But even if I can't do it, the growing numbers of innocents will make our choices better.
But we should start with a lynch that goes to the right address toDay.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-08-2009, 06:46 PM
Sally is the type of person who would do exactly as she's doing now as a bored Ordo, attempting to protect the person she thought was the Seer. Nogrod, I think you're being overly paranoid.
In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.
Given that I'm just now getting back into the swing of things, can anyone tell me exactly what time the deadline is (aka: how many hours I have to vote?)
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 06:52 PM
Perhaps Lommy messed with the roles without telling us, just to cause the confusion, so added a second seer? Or perhaps there is a wolf-seer?? Or someone who knows the seer's dreams?I don't think so. I think Lommy said quite plainly that this will be an ordinary (or basic) game. At least I'm counting on that as that was the information we were given.
I hope you Wilwa have time toDay as you're a known innocent. So everyone can trust there's no malice in your analysis or any thoughts you give.
We should be able to pull this one out!
Any unknown innocent (4 of them) can now pick a wolf from 3/6 eg. ½ probability!
The three "known" innocents to make the very same choice from 3/7 which is only slightly less.
The three wolves have their three votes of course... and they may try to twist our ideas. And they know when to add their votes together if they think they need to do it... which we can't ever do trusting each other as they can.
So we should be able to win but it will require some effort.
Given that I'm just now getting back into the swing of things, can anyone tell me exactly what time the deadline is (aka: how many hours I have to vote?)It would be something like 19 hours from now... (the Day started about 5 hours ago)
Brinniel
05-08-2009, 06:55 PM
Just wanted to say one thing. Perhaps Lommy messed with the roles without telling us, just to cause the confusion, so added a second seer?
Indeed. I can just see that evil Lommy giggling behind the computer screen at all of us (or trying to suppress giggles if she happens to be at Noggie's place). :p
But really this is quite confusing. Who's telling the truth? And are both of them innocent?
If Sally is the truthful one, then both are innocent and we should lynch Lhuna. If Noggie is the real seer, then he is innocent, but Sally could go either way.
If Sally is a wolf, this is a pretty risky move the wolves are playing. Because if Lhuna is a wolf, she is sacrificing a mate, and if Lhuna turns up innocent then Sally would surely expect herself to be a goner once Lhuna was lynched.
Yet if one is an ordo playing a seer, that's also a risky move which can backfire. Because if Noggie were an ordo, that was a very lucky guess he made about Legate, and if Sally is an ordo, then she also is really taking a chance calling Lhuna a wolf when she can't know for sure. And although an ordo may think it's a clever move to make a false claim in order to distract the wolves, it becomes even more confusing to the villagers.
There aren't any cobblers in this game, are there?
Of the three, I'd say Noggie looks the most innocent since if either claim is accurate than he isn't a wolf, and anyway, I'm more likely to believe him. So the question lies between Lhuna and Sally. I say it'd probably be best to lynch one of them toDay because it's more likely a wolf is among the two and also the death of either of them is more likely to answer questions than if we were to lynch anyone else. The question is, which one?
Why didn't Nogrod die? I thought it was odd at first, but I'm guessing the wolves worried that the ranger didn't protect him the Night before and would last Night. If Sally's a wolf, it wouldn't make sense to keep him alive in order to make her claim because if she were to do that, then surely she wouldn't have confirmed Noggie to be innocent in order to add to the confusion.
I suppose Nogrod could be a wolf in the scenario that he sacrificed Legate, then an ordo Sally made a false claim and under the assumption he was actually telling the truth, added him to her dream list. But that's a bit of a stretch.
Now, if Sally and Nogrod both turn out to be wolves playing some sort of game, I'd have to applaud them for putting on such a show. Of course that doesn't seem quite likely either, but if there are any third seers out there, do make your claim now. :rolleyes:
Anyway, let's hope there's no more modfire since with the numbers we have right now, it seems we only have toDay to get this wrong before game over...so I'd rather get it right.
Brinniel
05-08-2009, 06:57 PM
In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.
If Sally is lying, how is Lhuna still definitely a wolf?
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 07:03 PM
Sally is the type of person who would do exactly as she's doing now as a bored Ordo, attempting to protect the person she thought was the Seer. Nogrod, I think you're being overly paranoid.
Why would she then claim Lhuna is a wolf if she doesn't know it? Any ideas Shasta? Why didn't she say X is innocent or take anyone already dead innocent to be one of her "dreams"? Why is she for lynching someone she is not sure of if an innocent - weith the false pretext of being the seer?
In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.Now do you have a reason for your claim? Why should Lhuna be lynched?
EDIT:X'd with Brinn X2
Nienna
05-08-2009, 07:10 PM
I'm epically confused.
I'm also not going to be around hardly at all toDay. I'll be back in the morning my time to read anything new and then I will have to vote then.
First a question:
Sally are you the seer? If so why would you reveal if Nog was doing so well by himself?
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 07:13 PM
OMG I'm so much afraid of you Brinn...
You could be the one masterminding all of this (especially with Legate)! But you speak sense as you always do.
You're so smooth and reasonable... and you speak sense. :eek:
But anyway, as I'm going to sleep now my top candidates at the moment would be Sally, Shasta and Lhuna... in that order.
I hope I'll be having something to add to my thoughts on all of you as I come back later.
= please post people! It's not nice if just a few post!
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 07:14 PM
Sally are you the seer? If so why would you reveal if Nog was doing so well by himself?Read the thread Nienna... it might help you to figure out the possibilities... :rolleyes:
Nienna
05-08-2009, 07:25 PM
Read the thread Nienna... it might help you to figure out the possibilities... :rolleyes:
I've read the thread... and think I know all the possibilities but my problem most lies with the fact that Sally never openly stated that she was in fact the seer. She made a seer dream list and said who was guilty and who was innocent so far and she said she has a role but she did not say what that role was. By reading her post it can be inferred that she is the Seer but I would believe her more if she said openly that she is the seer. Does that make sense?
I've been getting evil vibes from Sally for some time now and I've been keeping my eyes on her but a seer reveal now seems like it would be too risky for one of the wolves.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-08-2009, 07:25 PM
What Lhuna Said:
#34 - Recommends keeping Eomer alive. Wishy-washy about Nogrod. Has bad feelings about Legate.
#62 - Says that Nogrod and Eomer feel "genuinely innocent". Thinks Legate is "saying too much, and not being too careful about it". Also thinks I'm suspicious, calling my vote for Nogrod "safe". Considers Sally's reaction to being voted by Brinn "suspicious". Thinks Nerwen seems alright.
#64 - Votes Legate.
#265 - Praises Nogrod. Considers Sally quite suspicious for holding her thoughts.
#268 - Argues with Nogrod about why she hasn't been killed. Points out that the wolves might have implicated themselves if they'd killed her. Reiterates her innocence.
#282 - Analyzes the Eomer voters. Thinks Wilwa was odd, Brinn more sensible, Legate pointless, and suspects Eonwe. Unsure about Nienna, thinks Rune is under her radar, and will be targeting Sally. Votes Legate.
What was said about Lhuna:
#39 - Brinn won't vote for Lhuna as she hasn't played in a while.
#44 - Legate thinks she should "learn her place" and would like to see more from her than one-liners.
#49 - Rune has Lhuna on his list.
#53 - Eomer thinks she seems "a bit sneaky".
#81 - Nogrod thinks that Lhuna could be "a wolf playing it consistently & intelligently", but thinks she deserves to play more than those innocents who do nothing (don't think I didn't catch that, Nog.)
#86 - Izzy has no idea about Lhuna.
#101 - Eomer, on Lhuna's vote: "thats' ok."
#137 - Wilwa thinks Lhuna is consistent, and is not getting any overly negative vibes.
#147 - Eomer thinks Lhuna vote was sensible, calls her a potential smart Wraith.
#152 - Wilwa is okay with Lhuna.
#153 - Rune gets a generally innocent feel from Lhuna based on her second post.
#185 - Nerwen notes that the continued existence of Lhuna could point away from Nogrod as a Wraith.
#189 - Sally is "still" getting bad vibes from Lhuna. Huh?
#199 - Nilp thinks Lhuna is "probably innocent".
#211 - Eonwe thinks Lhuna suspicious (I think that's what he's saying, anyway)
#217 - Nienna has no idea about Lhuna.
#227 - Eomer thinks of Lhuna: "allright, I suppose"
#235 - Eonwe says that Lhuna is being quiet.
#252 - Nogrod entertains the possibility of Lhuna being a Wraith since she's not dead.
#260 - Nerwen; same thing.
#293 - Nogrod thinks Lhuna's praise of him is overdone.
#299 - Sally calls Lhuna out as a wolf.
#310 - Nogrod considers Lhuna a "wolf by implication"... which makes me wonder why he's so keen to vote for Sally instead. Why vote a possible wolf when you already admit you have a probable wolf?
Shastanis Althreduin
05-08-2009, 07:33 PM
If Sally is lying, how is Lhuna still definitely a wolf?
Case 1: Sally is truthful. I believe Nogrod to be the Seer - this case is improbable. However, should this be the true case, then obviously Lhuna was dreamt by Sally-seer as a Wraith.
Case 2: Sally is an Ordo, lying to protect Nogrod-seer. In this case, you are right; Sally could not know for sure that Lhuna is a wolf. However, there is no reason for Sally to make such a claim without some sort of knowledge. In this case, Lhuna is still much more likely to be a wolf than an innocent simply because it would be A: suicidal and B: insanely stupid for Sally to claim such for no reason (and she's not insanely stupid, nor is she suicidal as far as I know).
Case 3: Sally is a Wraith, lying to protect another Wraith or attempting to undermine Nogrod-seer. In this case, calling out Lhuna as a Wraith is, in the most probable case, a way to both make Sally look innocent and back up her claim as Seer and sacrifice an already-suspected comrade. Also to be noted is that, should Lhuna actually turn out innocent once lynched, we would immediately proceed to lynch Sally the day after and, as I have already said, Sally's not suicidal.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-08-2009, 07:35 PM
Why would she then claim Lhuna is a wolf if she doesn't know it? Any ideas Shasta? Why didn't she say X is innocent or take anyone already dead innocent to be one of her "dreams"? Why is she for lynching someone she is not sure of if an innocent - weith the false pretext of being the seer?
Now do you have a reason for your claim? Why should Lhuna be lynched?
EDIT:X'd with Brinn X2
In all three of the cases possible (as I posted above), Lhuna is much more likely to be a wolf than an innocent. Either Lhuna or Sally is going to be lynched today; I simply say that it's more efficient to lynch Lhuna (the probable Wraith) instead of Sally (the possible Wraith).
wilwarin538
05-08-2009, 07:38 PM
I hope you Wilwa have time toDay as you're a known innocent. So everyone can trust there's no malice in your analysis or any thoughts you give.
I should, I'll be popping on randomly for the next few hours, but then I need to sleep. But in the morning I'll have like 4-5 hours straight for me to be on, my vote will be early but I should still be able to contribute quite a bit.
I need to read everything over again, I'm so confused....but I'm backing with Nogrod, so Sally is freaking me out. But it is possible that she could be innocent and trying to take the attention off the real seer, it's a little odd but definitely not impossible. I just think it's improbable.
So yeah...I will be back, but don't expect most of participation until about 9:30 am EST (GMT -4), which is a good 8 hours before the deadline.
wilwarin538
05-08-2009, 07:39 PM
One more thing....I don't quite understand why everyone seems to be assuming Lhuna is guilty. Did I miss something??
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 07:58 PM
She made a seer dream list and said who was guilty and who was innocent so far and she said she has a role but she did not say what that role was. By reading her post it can be inferred that she is the Seer but I would believe her more if she said openly that she is the seer. Does that make sense?It makes perfect sense but is not the issue: sending a seer list (who was dreamt at which Night) and saying it out aloud "I'm the seer" is the same thing.
I've been getting evil vibes from Sally for some time now and I've been keeping my eye on her but a seer reveal now seems like it would be too risky for one of the wolves.Not if Lhuna is her mate and she thence would make herself good / make Lhuna look good if she was caught.
Or just plain counting - here I look at Shasta's sudden inspiration of seeing a need to lynch Lhuna toDay.
If we make it wrong toDay - and if the ranger misses the next Night - it will be 5-3 toMorrow and the sheer voting-power of the ringwraiths will carry it as we probably can't hold our ranks as innocents as we don't know the situation unlike they do.
#310 - Nogrod considers Lhuna a "wolf by implication"... which makes me wonder why he's so keen to vote for Sally instead. Why vote a possible wolf when you already admit you have a probable wolf?Just because of that.
A) a wolf by implication is much less than finding out someone is lying (and not lying for good but looking forwards to kill someone she can't know is innocent or a baddie - unless she is a wolf knowing the other) and therefore - according to that lie - someone might be a wolf "by implication" but the first culprit is the one posing as the seer and claiming to be able to kill when she's not in the position of doing that. Yeah, only I know why she can't be it for sure. But I think I have made ten times the case why a reasonable person should not believe her.
B) Because you - whom I suspect at least as much as I do suspect Sally - seem to defend the liar so consistently.
Just to answer... #81 - Nogrod thinks that Lhuna could be "a wolf playing it consistently & intelligently", but thinks she deserves to play more than those innocents who do nothing (don't think I didn't catch that, Nog.)Easy. On Day1 someone actually plays unlike some others who just hunker down and either do not post at all or just post one post saying "let's catch the wolves". I would trade any first kind of player to any latter anytime - whatever their role is.
This is a game and game needs to be played. I don't care if I'm on the winning or the losing side but I want to play. Those who just hide in the shadows make games only lousy.
I don't want to throw a dice. That's soo booring! You can do it at your home and alone.
I want to play werewolf eg. a game of accusation, deceit, suspicion, rhetorics... with others playing the same game.
Catch it now?
Shastanis Althreduin
05-08-2009, 08:00 PM
Implicitly. You're being contrary; no more, no less.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-08-2009, 08:05 PM
Oh, and -
B) Because you - whom I suspect at least as much as I do suspect Sally - seem to defend the liar so consistently.
How many errors do you count in that statement? I count... two.
1. You suspect me. Why? I can't have given you anything to suspect me on - I haven't been able to post. The only reason you say you suspect me is because you don't like that I haven't been able to participate as much as I normally do, Nogrod, admit it.
2. I defend the liar so consistently. ...Wait, consistently? I make one post offering an alternate explanation as to why Sally has been saying what she's been saying - one, mind you, that you seem to have rejected out-of-hand - and not only do you say I'm "defending" her, but that I'm doing it "consistently"? With one post? Rethink that, maybe, and get back to me.
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 08:06 PM
Looking at the insistence of Sally and Shasta - the most suspicious people around to my view - I'm thinking we should not lynch Lhuna.
But I would be happy to vote either of them. A wolf down I'd say.
I'm not saying Lhuna is an innocent, but I think she is a lot less suspicious than these two. (If Sally is a wolf then Lhuna might be one as well - but that's only "by implication", not suspicious as such on that issue - there are other things though but let's think of them later *needs to go to sleep finally*)
EDIT: Blah: I seem to have missed some actual arguing... Sorry. I'll comment on those.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-08-2009, 08:10 PM
Can I just point out, Nogrod, that you're making absolutely no sense?
For one thing, you call me one of the most suspicious people around - a fact I've already addressed. For another, you think Lhuna innocent (which, in itself, could make sense under specific circumstances), but then you turn right around and say that she could be a wolf, by implication, but only if Sally is a wolf? When Sally has been proclaiming from the rooftops that Lhuna is a wolf?
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 08:31 PM
In a comment to your #321 I had basically raised those issues in my #306. Although I know she is not the seer which you naturally can't know.
But I need to ask you Shasta a question. Sally is an Ordo, lying to protect Nogrod-seer. In this case, you are right; Sally could not know for sure that Lhuna is a wolf.However, there is no reason for Sally to make such a claim without some sort of knowledge. In this case, Lhuna is still much more likely to be a wolf than an innocent simply because it would be A: suicidal and B: insanely stupid for Sally to claim such for no reason (and she's not insanely stupid, nor is she suicidal as far as I know).Now what kind of knowledge might that be that an ordo would have? What kind of other "knowledge" is there around? Why are you speculating with impossibilities?
Sally is a Wraith, lying to protect another Wraith or attempting to undermine Nogrod-seer. In this case, calling out Lhuna as a Wraith is, in the most probable case, a way to both make Sally look innocent and back up her claim as Seer and sacrifice an already-suspected comrade.If Sally is a baddie we should lynch the person she claims to be a baddie? Because Sally is not suicidal? If you think Sally is trying to make her mate in crime look bad to make herself look good why don't you say let's lynch Sally first - and let's consider Lhuna then if Sally turns out to be a wolf? Why are yu so keen to lynch the "implication" (eg. whom Sally suspects) over from who actually says something she can't know for sure (unless she is a baddie which should be reason enough to lynch her)?
Also to be noted is that, should Lhuna actually turn out innocent once lynched, we would immediately proceed to lynch Sally the day after and, as I have already said, Sally's not suicidal.Why the marching order should be this? Sally lies. If she's not a baddie she can't have "any sort of knowledge" on her.
You have been counting, haven't you? If we lynch an innocent toDay you wolves have a much better future, but if we get one of you toDay your future looks very grim indeed. So let's try Lhuna first, right?
Funny, I was quite sure Lhuna was evil a few hours ago, but thanks to your campaign Shasta I'm beginning to think the contrary. Not because you suspect Lhuna but becasue you support Sally so heavily...
Sorry Shasta: I'm still "late" with my arguments. I'll try to catch up...
Shastanis Althreduin
05-08-2009, 08:37 PM
You seem to be fixated on the fact that Sally's claim to be the Seer is absolute proof of her guilt, Nogrod. I'm supporting her because I think there's a chance she could be an ordo attempting to divert attention from the real Seer, there's no one else around to support her, and you seem to be unwilling to consider any theories but the one you've chosen.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-08-2009, 08:40 PM
In answer to your question, Nogrod, I think you should be asking Sally that question, because I have no idea. There ought to be something, though; it's quite poor play if she's accusing Lhuna for no reason. All I'm saying is that there is some reason that Sally is accusing Lhuna so heavily, and that it might not be an evil one.
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 09:12 PM
Either Lhuna or Sally is going to be lynched todayThat sure you are? How about we lynched you indeed? :rolleyes:
I simply say that it's more efficient to lynch Lhuna (the probable Wraith) instead of Sally (the possible Wraith).Now where do you pick these labels of "probable" and "possible" - and the easy-going evaluation between them? Do you have a reason for that order of procedures? What might it be? I still haven't seen your case against Lhuna which would be better than cases made against Sally. Indeed I think I do not remember a single point you would have made... (maybe you have, but you sure don't triumph with those).
Sally is freaking me out. But it is possible that she could be innocent and trying to take the attention off the real seer, it's a little odd but definitely not impossible. I just think it's improbable."Possible", yes. But how "probable" is it that as an ordo she decided she would act like knowing that Lhuna is a baddie as she didn't know it (there's no way for an ordo to know that)? She could have easily said that she had "dreamt" of someone already dead in Lhuna's place, if she were an innocent. But her wish to kill someone she shouldn't know about if she were true innocent looks pretty bad. More bad than the person she wishes to kill - even if she turned out wolf as well which I still find plausible (otherwise there would be no point in her fake-reveal).
I don't quite understand why everyone seems to be assuming Lhuna is guilty. Did I miss something??Well, Sally could play a game naming Lhuna (her mate in crime) as a wolf and thence whichever way the voting goes another one of them would look good as the other was a baddie. A cool act by wolves and perfectly reasonable when only two Days separate them from victory if they play it right (there confidence with someone who delivered us a wolf would be worth their weight in gold).
But happily we're alert here.
Implicitly. You're being contrary; no more, no less.
Sorry, I have no idea where / what you are referring to.
The only reason you say you suspect me is because you don't like that I haven't been able to participate as much as I normally do, Nogrod, admit it.No I won't admit that. Your activity on Day1 was really bad and I would have loved to lynch you for that but toDay - well lately - you have been playing indeed. I do appreciate it! Indeed I feel you've posted more than in the last game. Maybe we need an impartial judge for this "attendance" if you feel different.
But my problem with you is the way you try to save Sally (whom I think now as the #1 wolf around) for whichever cost.
For another, you think Lhuna innocent (which, in itself, could make sense under specific circumstances), but then you turn right around and say that she could be a wolf, by implication, but only if Sally is a wolf?I don't darn know about Lhuna! I did suspect her from Day1 already and do even now, but then again if you and Sally are wolves then the third could be Brinn who's your last fellow... or basically anyone...
I don't think Lhuna innocent. As an innocent myself I can't afford thinking someone innocent without a very good cause. So why do you try to make the impression I think Lhuna innocent? Look at my posts backwards and you see I suspect her every noew and then.
Suspecting someone more than X does not mean one doesn't suspect X. Basic logic.
But I do see Sally and you a lot more suspicious than her - even if we lynch Sally toDay and she turns out a wolf I would say it like 50-50 with you and Lhuna, looking at your insistence with Sally maybe 70-30 for you to be honest. But yes, she's third in my list.
But really: When Sally has been proclaiming from the rooftops that Lhuna is a wolf?How about this one: Okay, so here's what I know.
Brinn: innocent
Nog: innocent
Legate: wolf
Lhuna: wolf:rolleyes:
So where might that have been? No... it was not from the rooftops... she just carefully hinted it from between the lines.
Give up mate. :)
EDIT: X'd with Shasta x2
Nogrod
05-08-2009, 09:25 PM
I think you should be asking Sally that question, because I have no idea.Which question?
Please mate, this is not the first time. What are you referring to? You can't think others will run through the whole thread to find out what are you asking to answer your questions... :rolleyes:
You seem to be fixated on the fact that Sally's claim to be the Seer is absolute proof of her guiltYou don't seem to read the thread now do you? I have said this maybe ten times and this will be the last one.
An ordo pretending to be the seer to save the real one would not place another player into danger by claiming she's a wolf. That's far from absolute, but a fairer deduction than some others.
Had she made her list like this:
Okay, so here's what I know.
Brinn: innocent
Nog: innocent
Legate: wolf
XXX: innocentI might have believed her trying to help. But now in the place of the XXX she had Lhuna as a wolf which she can't know as she's no seer.
So she wanted to get Lhuna lynched although she didn't know what she is. That is no innocent behaviour.
Lhuna maybe a fellow baddie and this is all an opera trying to fool us. But it's Sally we should lynch first as she's the one who clearly lies / tries to fool us. We should consider Lhuna after that.
If you don't understand this argument now, then don't.
Off to bed.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-08-2009, 10:21 PM
Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did.
I'll be around to vote tomorrow, but I'm going to sit down and shut up because all that's come of me being active today is I've been A) chastised for not being active during the first few days and B) suspected for being active today and bringing an alternative idea to the table.
Nerwen
05-08-2009, 11:30 PM
Greetings, all. Oh, and welcome to the "known innocent" club, Wilwa. Sorry for suspecting you.
Well, toDay has been... interesting.
I have only skimmed the thread so far (will re-read more thoroughly when I have a moment) but here are my thoughts so far:
Sally is surely a wraith.
1. If she were an innocent trying to draw fire from Nogrod she would not have named Lhuna as a baddie.
2. If her scenario– that she was the Seer and Nogrod an innocent impersonating the Seer– were correct, Nogrod would have confessed by now.
3. Everyone– apart from Nogrod– is either defending her or expressing confusion. Is it likely that not one of the wolves would take advantage of the most perfect chance to lynch an innocent in WW history?
Shasta is probably her fellow
He seems desperate to save her... and knowing he's pretty smart, I don't see how he can honestly believe his own argument. (It relies, after all, on ordo-Sally "somehow" knowing for certain that Lhuna is evil.)
Presumably, the wraith-team thought Sally was likely to be dreamed last Night, and she decided to go down fighting.
Here's the puzzle, though: why did she not accuse Nogrod of being a wraith? It seems to me that that's the only way her plan could have worked.
Did she think he would believe her a well-intentioned ordo, and go along with her in the hope of surviving another Night? But then, why say she dreamt Lhuna? (As I said, an ordo would not do this.)
And what is Lhuna?
Now, the talk has been that maybe she's the wraith sacrifice, and they're hoping she'll get lynched and thus buy Sally some credibility. That would rely on the wraiths killing Nogrod toNight... and on Nogrod going along with Sally toDay. (And also requires the third step of Sally being able to convince us ToMorrow that she really was just an ordo trying to save the Seer.)
Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself.
Or is the whole scheme simply to get an innocent Lhuna lynched, instead of guilty Sally? But again, how could it work once Sally has declared Nogrod innocent?
*brain hurting*
EDIT: X'd with Shasta.
EDIT2:clarification.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-08-2009, 11:57 PM
I lied. I have a response to Nerwen.
Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me.
And can I say again, I'm not "desperate to save Sally". I simply think there could be an alternate explanation to her actions.
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 12:21 AM
Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did.
And your explanation for a good Sally doing what she did is...? And don't just repeat your suggestion that she has "some sort of knowledge". If she's an ordo, she can't. The only way you can believe her is by not believing Nogrod... and you say you do believe him!
EDIT: X'd with Shasta.
satansaloser2005
05-09-2009, 12:51 AM
Can't talk much now -long day and all that- but before I go to bed.
Everyone (or at least some of you) seem to be forgetting the possibility that I am the seer, Nog is faking (for the good of the village), and that we really should be working together, not against each other, in this matter.
In other news, I'm going to bed. Vote for Lhuna. That is all. Enjoy yourselves until I get back, and I will have further commentary when I'm awake. :)
satansaloser2005
05-09-2009, 01:00 AM
Oh, and to add. I honestly believe that Nog has nothing but good intentions for the village, so if you believe me trust him. Well, at least trust that he's innocent. :rolleyes:
Really going to bed now. Good night all!
Brinniel
05-09-2009, 01:15 AM
Everyone (or at least some of you) seem to be forgetting the possibility that I am the seer, Nog is faking (for the good of the village), and that we really should be working together, not against each other, in this matter.
Sorry, but if Nogrod was faking for the good of the village, why would he be considering lynching you? It's possible for an ordo to fake something in order to confuse the wolves, but no one with good intentions would continue to do so to the point where it'd misdirect the Day's lynch. And if Nogrod was just an ordo, then he would know you were the real seer and wouldn't be accusing you of wolvery.
I'm a bit concerned with this sudden suspicion being thrown at Shasta. He's made a weak argument maybe, and with his defenses he seems to only be digging himself deeper. But I've seen an innocent Shasta get lynched for that before. I can understand what he's trying to say, and perhaps his words just got misinterpreted. His latest posts look to me more like they're coming from a frustrated innocent than anything.
I won't consider voting for Lhuna until she posts. She hasn't shown up yet, and I'd like to hear her reaction to all this. Meanwhile, Sally only looks worse to me with that latest posts.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-09-2009, 01:43 AM
And your explanation for a good Sally going what she did is...? And don't just repeat your suggestion that she has "some sort off knowledge". If she's an ordo, she can't. The only way you can believe her is by not believing Nogrod... and you say you do believe him!
EDIT: X'd with Shasta.
Dearheart, I already said to Nogrod's rather more aggressive version of that same statement, "Ask Sally." I already said I don't claim to know the reason behind Sally's actions. All I'm saying is that there is one, and it's not necessarily evil. I just hate that everyone's accusing Sally out of hand and not even considering the fact that she could be innocent when there is in fact an alternate explanation.
Although I will confess I'm a little irritated that, given a chance to post, Sally said nothing about her reasoning. Here I am being accused of sticking my neck out for her; the least she could have done is be a little more forthright. :rolleyes:
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 01:54 AM
Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me.
Numbers. It's at the stage where it makes quite a difference whether a wraith gets lynched "eventually" or now.
Now, the question of Brinniel–
I don't want to jump to conclusions here, but it strikes me that #341 (while sounding quite reasonable) is consistent with what Brinn would do if the remaining wraiths were herself and Shasta:
1. Throw Sally under the bus.
2. Try to save Shasta.
3. Try to make the village focus again on Lhuna as a lynch-candidate.
EDIT: X'd with Shasta.
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 02:03 AM
I just hate that everyone's accusing Sally out of hand and not even considering the fact that she could be innocent when there is in fact an alternate explanation.
O my beloved, the fact is that I asked you for this "alternative explanation" in the post you quote... and it seems not to be forthcoming.
Do tell me what it is, my darling.:Merisu:
Shastanis Althreduin
05-09-2009, 02:18 AM
Pearl of my heart, I suppose I haven't stated it in so many words, but it's quite apparent if you read between the lines of what I've been saying. I suppose I could have been remiss in that fact.
Put simply, my darling, it's that an innocent-Sally had a pressing reason to claim Seer when Nogrod is a much better candidate, and the same reason for accusing Lhuna so. As for that reason, you would have to ask Sally.
I will say that the longer Sally withholds this reason, the more inclined I am to side with the majority...
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 02:25 AM
Put simply, my darling, it's that an innocent-Sally had a pressing reason to claim Seer when Nogrod is a much better candidate, and the same reason for accusing Lhuna so. As for that reason, you would have to ask Sally.
But, light of my life, what– other than her indeed being the real Seer– could this possibly be? And yet you say you believe Nogrod.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-09-2009, 02:33 AM
But, light of my life, what– other than her indeed being the real Seer– could this possibly be? And yet you say you believe Nogrod.
Beloved one, I must confess all manner of ideas have passed through my head. Perhaps Sally is a secret role. Perhaps Sally's attempting to be helpful. Perhaps Lhuna-wraith mis-sent a PM. I really can't fathom her reasoning. I simply wish not to exclude alternative explanations out of hand.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-09-2009, 03:43 AM
"If we make it wrong toDay - and if the ranger misses the next Night - it will be 5-3 toMorrow and the sheer voting-power of the ringwraiths will carry it as we probably can't hold our ranks as innocents as we don't know the situation unlike they do."
The thing that does not make sense in all the scenarios is why you where left alive. . . If Sally is a wolf, it seems like a very bad strategy not to kill you and then make a seer claim her self. If they had just killed you one of the nights Sally would live, but by making this claim she is sure to die.
There is also the possebility that Sally is the seer and deliberatly chose to give wrong information about Nogrod. so that the wraith would think her an ordo. That way she could get 1 wraith lynched (Lhuna) and one more dream before revealing that Nogrod was a baddie.
You see. . .no possible explenation makes sense. No matter which one we chose it will involve what seems as poor tactics from the wolves or weird choises made by the seer.
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 04:11 AM
Beloved one, I must confess all manner of ideas have passed through my head. Perhaps Sally is a secret role.
...Secret cobbler? Village Suicide?
Perhaps Sally's attempting to be helpful.
My treasure, the reasons why her actions are anything but helpful have already been stated several times.
The point is, if Sally were an ordo trying some weird ploy (whether to save the Seer, or to test Lhuna like Kent did with Nilp last game, or whatever) she would surely have backed down by now.
And if she's the real Seer, and Nogrod an ordo, he would have backed down.
Lhuna-wraith mis-sent a PM.
Then Sally ought to have dropped out of the game.
really can't fathom her reasoning. I simply wish not to exclude alternative explanations out of hand.
Of course, of course... but the real question is: can we afford not to lynch her now?
EDIT: X'd with Rune.
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 04:29 AM
There is also the possebility that Sally is the seer and deliberatly chose to give wrong information about Nogrod. so that the wraith would think her an ordo. That way she could get 1 wraith lynched (Lhuna) and one more dream before revealing that Nogrod was a baddie.
That's suicidal, plus it carries a tremendous risk of leaving a Nogwraith as a "known innocent", thus dooming the village.
see. . .no possible explenation makes sense. No matter which one we chose it will involve what seems as poor tactics from the wolves or weird choises made by the seer.
Indeed. But, as I said, I don't see how we can not lynch her now.
My guess at the moment is that Sally-wraith simply acted on impulse at the start of the Day, and hadn't thought things through properly.
Nienna
05-09-2009, 05:14 AM
As I mentioned before I'm going to be away for the rest of toDay so I will vote way early.
++Sally
She has been acting all weird... which might just be her normal playing style but it still rubbed me the wrong way. She is also being very criptic. I also think that we would learn the most from her death.
wilwarin538
05-09-2009, 07:35 AM
Oh, and to add. I honestly believe that Nog has nothing but good intentions for the village, so if you believe me trust him. Well, at least trust that he's innocent. :rolleyes:
What??? But if you're the seer and he's just an ord, which seems to be what you're suggesting, then how did he possibly know Legate was a wolf? Making such a claim would be a pretty odd thing for an ord to do. Which is why I'm not believing you.
Sorry, just saw that and had to comment.....I just find it so rediculous....I'll be back, I wasn't quite done reading yet....
wilwarin538
05-09-2009, 07:48 AM
K....wow.
So what I know (no, this is not another seer reveal :rolleyes:) :
Nog: seer
Nerwen: ord
Me: ord
Sally: confusing
Ok.....so I don't agree with Shasta, but I understand where he's coming from, so I'm not jumping on thinking him guilty right now.
So most likely I will be voting for Sally. I need to go eat some breakfast, then I will be back and make a nice little list.
Oh, and the lovey dovey talk between Shasta and Nerwen is totally cracking me up.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-09-2009, 08:18 AM
To me these two scenarios are the most likely:
Nogrod is the seer and the wraiths were stupid not to kill him, Sally is Ordo or Wraith.
and
Nogrod is a wraith who sacrificed a mate and Sally is an ordo trying to help the seer.
. . .wait. . .forget it, the only thing I can conclude is that the scenario Sally = Seer, Nogrod = Wraith is not likely.
My problem is that I can easily see Nogrod as a wraith bluffing, but the same goes for Sally.
Eönwë
05-09-2009, 08:27 AM
Woah... *head explodes*
Ok, I'm going to have to reread toDay's talk before I can say much.
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 08:27 AM
To me these two scenarios are the most likely:
Nogrod is the seer and the wraiths were stupid not to kill him, Sally is Ordo or Wraith.
and
Nogrod is a wraith who sacrificed a mate and Sally is an ordo trying to help the seer.
By trying to get Lhuna killed, when she cannot know her role?
EDIT: X'd with Steve.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-09-2009, 08:38 AM
By trying to get Lhuna killed, when she cannot know her role?
yes
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 08:43 AM
And you consider this to be one of the two most likely scenarios?
EDIT: X'd with Rune.
Eönwë
05-09-2009, 08:50 AM
Ok, though, before I do, some things people have said which I would just like to comment on...
I don't think Lhuna innocent. As an innocent myself I can't afford thinking someone innocent without a very good cause. So why do you try to make the impression I think Lhuna innocent? Look at my posts backwards and you see I suspect her every noew and then.
Ok, this just seems a little strange to me... if he wasn't the seer (well, as far as we know), I would definately be going after him. Seems like a slip. Why would he be suspecting Lhuna every now and then? Like he's trying to distance himself from her. Nogrod being the relentless WW player that he is would either mention her as seeming more innocent, or would go after her, at least a little bit (because she wasn't his main target).
Also, the logic here seems a little bit strange:
Now, the talk has been that maybe she's the wraith sacrifice, and they're hoping she'll get lynched and thus buy Sally some credibility. That would rely on the wraiths killing Nogrod toNight... and on Nogrod going along with Sally toDay. (And also requires the third step of Sally being able to convince us ToMorrow that she really was just an ordo trying to save the Seer.)
What would a wraith-Sally have to gain from just being looked upon as a a "lucky innocent", who just happened to be right about Lhuna? It isn't as much of a safeguard from lynching as the seer (and as Nogrod would be a proven seer in your scenario). Also it would lead her actions to be scrutinised much more by everyone else- look what happpens in the games where an innocent Shasta is right about the wolves.
Also, very risky, but then again, Sally is a risky player.
How about a crazy theory:
Nogrod, Nerwen (a "proven" innocent) and Sally/Shasta are all wolves and are just trying to confuse us. Nogrod puts Wilwa in the "proven innocent" category to gain the support of a true innocent (or possibly even a gifted- they're all still alive I believe).
Not very likely, but it's best to think of every option. If it is true, they're amazing.
I also don't like the fact that everyone seems to be agreeing with everyone, even though the general idea is shifting throughout the Day. Something doesn't seem right there.
Now for that reread...
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-09-2009, 08:59 AM
And you consider this to be one of the two most likely scenarios?
It was a thought process and I chose not to delete my ideas after I partially discarded them. . .There are things that does not add up in every scenario, so I keep on changing my mind.
Anyways I am not going to reply again, if this is the way you intend to debate.
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 09:06 AM
What would a wraith-Sally have to gain from just being looked upon as a a "lucky innocent", who just happened to be right about Lhuna? It isn't as much of a safeguard from lynching as the seer (and as Nogrod would be a proven seer in your scenario). Also it would lead her actions to be scrutinised much more by everyone else- look what happpens in the games where an innocent Shasta is right about the wolves.
If anyone wants to go back and read that post (#336) they will see that I'm looking at different scenarios and raising points against each one.
My next line was, "Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself".
Your quoting me out of context in order to criticise my "strange logic" does not make me think well of you, Eönwë.
Not at all well of you.
Eönwë
05-09-2009, 09:09 AM
If anyone wants to go back and read that post (#336) they will see that I'm looking at different scenarios and raising points against each one.
My next line was, "Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself".
Your quoting me out of context in order to criticise my "strange logic" does not make me think well of you, Eönwë.
Not at all well of you.
The "Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself", I took to mean that it would be hard to do, as opposed to anything else.
What I said is that it wouldn't be beneficial.
Just clarifying.
edit: fixed italic stuff
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 09:09 AM
It was a thought process and I chose not to delete my ideas after I partially discarded them. . .There are things that does not add up in every scenario, so I keep on changing my mind.
Anyways I am not going to reply again, if this is the way you intend to debate.
Hey... I'm sorry if I offended you... but all you said was a a plain "yes"... so it seemed you were saying you still thought that likely. See?
EDIT: X'd with Steve.
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 09:21 AM
The "Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself", I took to mean that it would be hard to do, as opposed to anything else.
What I said is that it wouldn't be beneficial.
Just clarifying.
What's the difference? I was looking at the already-proposed wraith-on-wraith theory (I didn't come up with it) and explaining what I thought was wrong with it.
Considering that your out-of-context quoting leads up to your "crazy theory" that Nogrod and I are wolves together... I'm still not thinking well of you.
Eönwë
05-09-2009, 09:27 AM
I read it again, but the more I read it, the more confusing it is- I'm coming up with even crazier scenarios in my head!
It just seems to me that Sally did not plan ahead enough. If she's a wraith, then what she did risks her life and will probably result in her lynching within the next few Days, lowering their numbers, and if she's an ordo, then with all the suspicion on her, she's just wasting one of our valuable lynches.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-09-2009, 09:29 AM
Hey... I'm sorry if I offended you... but all you said was a a plain "yes"... so it seemed you were saying you still thought that likely. See?
EDIT: X'd with Steve.
Not offended as such. . .just very confused and slightly annoyed.
Anyways I have to vote within 15 min, so I need to start forming some opinions and stop being confused.
wilwarin538
05-09-2009, 09:31 AM
One thought before my list. So if we consider ours odds right now, there are 3 wraiths among 7 possible people to lynch (I'm not counting myself, Nerwen and Nogrod, since I'd be surprised if anyone voted for us). So that is almost a 50/50 chance of lynching a wraith. Pretty good I have to say.
So my thoughts on everyone, now this is looking back from pages 7-9, cause I don't want to read more then that right now, especially since I know I'm gonna vote Sally. I just want everyone to know my thoughts regarding everyone.
Nienna: Not too much, just pops in here and there...a possible baddie I suppose, but for some reason I can't see it...
Nogrod: seer
Shasta: Interesting, I'm enjoying his back and forth with Nerwen....I don't agree with him, but I can tell that he's just trying to consider all possibilities. So I don't really suspect him, I don't think....
Nerwen: innocent and ordinary, just like me
Rune: Seems just as confused as me. I don't know.
Lhuna: I still don't understand, now I'm seeing that yesterDay people were confused over why she hadn't been Night killed, I definitely missed something in here.
Sally: K, one thing I noticed in my re-reading, when Nogrod revealed my innocence she was all like "I'm of much the same opinion", are you claiming you "dreamt" me aswell?? Or you're just agreeing with him....I don't know. I really don't believe her, at all. So I'll be voting her, most probably.
Eönwë: Not liking, really more gut then anything....I'm actually really not trusting anyone.
Brinniel: Makes sense, I want to trust her, and because of that I feel like I shouldn't....I'm getting so paranoid. I honestly don't know about her...
Other thoughts.
Eonwe said this:
Nogrod puts Wilwa in the "proven innocent" category to gain the support of a true innocent (or possibly even a gifted- they're all still alive I believe).
If I was a gifted then Nog would just say I was innocent, but since he said ord then that means he knows I'm not gifted. I think a wraith pretending to be a seer wouldn't say "this person is an ord", cause they risk the chance that that person is actually a gifted (and if a gifted is being called an ord then they know the seer reveal is faked), they would say "this person is innocent", cause anyone who isn't one of their mates is an innocent, so there's no chance of being wrong. Does that make sense?? Basically it's that logic that is leading me to trust Nog, even if it doesn't seem completely logical.
That's all for now...gonna go eat me some Greek pizza, then I'll be back.
X'posted with Eonwe and Rune.
Eönwë
05-09-2009, 09:34 AM
What's the difference? I was looking at the already-proposed wraith-on-wraith theory (I didn't come up with it) and explaining what I thought was wrong with it.
Considering that your out-of-context quoting leads up to your "crazy theory" that Nogrod and I are wolves together... I'm still not thinking well of you.
That was just what was building up in my head at the time- and not very plausible, as I said in my post. It wasn't meant to be connected.
Anyway, part of the point of WW is to come up with theories... I was just putting it out there.
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 09:41 AM
Lhuna: I still don't understand, now I'm seeing that yesterDay people were confused over why she hadn't been Night killed, I definitely missed something in here.
Because she went after Legate so strongly. If it's not wolf-on-wolf, it would have made her look very Seerish to the baddies... so it's strange they didn't kill her. (But then, Nogrod is also still alive...)
Possibly, as I suggested, they were afraid she was really the Hunter, or else that she was Ranger-protected.
EDIT: X'd with Eönwë.
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 09:44 AM
Anyway. I have to go now, so–
++Sally.
Good night.
Nerwen
05-09-2009, 09:51 AM
Oh, and don't lynch Lhuna toDay. Yes, wraith-on-wraith is a possibility– but it could just as easily be a plot to get an innocent killed.
Sally is a much better risk– plus, her death gives us more information than anyone else's.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-09-2009, 09:53 AM
OK I chose to belive that the wraiths made a mistake and did not kill Nogrod 2 nights ago. . .Now if Sally turns out to be the Seer, then somebody has been acting very weird.
++Sally
Lhunardawen
05-09-2009, 09:54 AM
Of all the times that I will have practically no time to post... :rolleyes: I'm really sorry. I have to make this short and sweet. Well, maybe not sweet.
Nice try, sally. That was a bold move, because you had to know that it'll be almost impossible to let this fly. But it was ingenious of you, really, to aim to take an innocent down with you, so you wraiths can stand a slightly better chance in the numbers game in the end.
My guess is that sally is a sort of sacrificial wraith thrown out to deflect attention from at least one of her last two fellow wraiths and give them a better chance of winning the game for their side. She could have been bold enough to include wraith-Brinn in her list of innocents, and wraith-Eonwe or wraith-Rune could be slipping under our radars while we argue. I do not know, and unfortunately I do not have the time to further explore possibilities toDay.
At least one thing we know for sure is that we've caught a wraith in sally.
++satansaloser2005
wilwarin538
05-09-2009, 09:55 AM
K, thanks Nerwen.
I'm just gonna vote now cause I'm not positive that I'll be back, but I'll try.
++Sally
X'posted with Nerwen, Rune and Lhuna
satansaloser2005
05-09-2009, 11:39 AM
You try to help your team out and look what they to do you....Typical.
If Nogrod is the seer, then what sense does it make for the wraiths to leave him alive? Obviously it would be lovely for them to watch as we lynched our own seer, but still. . .
Of course Nogrod could be a wraith, with their relatively high numbers they could definitly afford to sacrifice one in order to draw out the seer. (but obviously then none of them would be the seer)
Then there is the chance of Sally being an ordo trying to draw attention away from the seer, but what kind of sense would that make?
What I am trying to say is this: the more I think about this situation the less sense it makes.
Rune darling, it's me. Do I ever make sense? (And I'm not saying I'm the seer impersonator, I'm just pointing out that I'm a bit far from typical. Kthnkx.)
Sally is the type of person who would do exactly as she's doing now as a bored Ordo, attempting to protect the person she thought was the Seer. Nogrod, I think you're being overly paranoid.
In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.
Given that I'm just now getting back into the swing of things, can anyone tell me exactly what time the deadline is (aka: how many hours I have to vote?)
Well at least someone sees reason. Whether I'm an innocent or the real seer it's silly to be persecuted like this.
++Shasta for representative!
Sally are you the seer? If so why would you reveal if Nog was doing so well by himself?
Why let Nog go down for no reason? Besides, I was rather afraid (as I said earlier) that if I didn't say anything very soon no one would believe me. Too late, obviously.
One more thing....I don't quite understand why everyone seems to be assuming Lhuna is guilty. Did I miss something??
Because I said so. If they don't believe me then they have no way to know this information.
Although I will confess I'm a little irritated that, given a chance to post, Sally said nothing about her reasoning. Here I am being accused of sticking my neck out for her; the least she could have done is be a little more forthright. :rolleyes:
Sorry, love. I was absolutely exhausted when I got home and I'd made a list of posts to reply to and just didn't feel like getting around to them, so I kept it short and sweet so I could get to bed.
Lhuna: I still don't understand, now I'm seeing that yesterDay people were confused over why she hadn't been Night killed, I definitely missed something in here.
Sally: K, one thing I noticed in my re-reading, when Nogrod revealed my innocence she was all like "I'm of much the same opinion", are you claiming you "dreamt" me aswell?? Or you're just agreeing with him....I don't know. I really don't believe her, at all. So I'll be voting her, most probably.
Brinniel: Makes sense, I want to trust her, and because of that I feel like I shouldn't....I'm getting so paranoid. I honestly don't know about her...
In response to both your post and your question. There's a reason Lhuna hasn't been Night killed, I didn't dream of you just my opinion, and do trust Brinn, because she's innocent. Enjoy.
Currently I think I have....five votes? That means there's at least the chance to make this a tie and leave it to chance. Vote Lhuna and I assure you we will kill a baddie.
++Lhuna
ETA: I thought I had more posts quoted to respond to, so I know something's missing. If you asked me a question and I didn't answer it pose it again and I'll be sure to respond. Epic reply fail on my part, sorry.
Nogrod
05-09-2009, 12:07 PM
Well this looks like being quite a game indeed!
I do approve different theories - and think that I have entertained a few versions myself as well. But I do not approve of clinging into illogical ones with all you can come up with. When someone defends his theory with someone sending PM's to wrong people it looks more like the end-result of the theory is more important than the evidence and the actual believability of it.
Yes Sally acts pretty weird whether as a wraith or as an innocent. But for innocent she acts even more weirder.
But I could see Legate's signature behind all this indeed. He had one Night to plot with the other wolves before his last Day broke and he might have suggested that if he is taken the others should leave me alive for one or two Nights so that you others would start mistrusting me and would eventually lynch me (and if we'd use all our Daily time into discussing my role the other wolves could hide more easily in the shadows).
Now this - even if it's a bit clumsy - could actually speak for that kind of an interpretation: Oh, and to add. I honestly believe that Nog has nothing but good intentions for the village, so if you believe me trust him. Well, at least trust that he's innocent. :rolleyes:I mean if and when we lynch her and find out she's a ringwraith that might just be thought of adding some pressure on my status.
That's at least the best explanation I could come up with at the moment. And that being the case I do agree with Rune that it has been an epic failure.
Also I think Nerwen might be up to something by suggesting that Sally decided to act on an instinct in the morning without thinking it more closely where it would lead her. For otherwise her action sure looks odd. Or did she actually believe I would take the bait?
Anyway. Some thougths on other issues than Sally to follow.
Nogrod
05-09-2009, 12:39 PM
Okay and Shasta then.
First he says: In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.Now this already raises some eyebrows. How comes he think that even if Sally is lying Lhuna must be a baddie? And that is quite an unconditional way of putting it: "whether or not, Lhuna is a wolf".
Then he elaborates it a bit: there is no reason for Sally to make such a claim without some sort of knowledge.
But on the next one he undermines his earlier suggestion about special knowledge by defending Sally as an ordo: I'm supporting her because I think there's a chance she could be an ordo attempting to divert attention from the real Seer
A bit later he still "knows" there is a reason behind Sally's actions but by this time it's only "not necessarily evil": I already said I don't claim to know the reason behind Sally's actions. All I'm saying is that there is one, and it's not necessarily evil.
Ending up with this: Perhaps Sally is a secret role. Perhaps Sally's attempting to be helpful. Perhaps Lhuna-wraith mis-sent a PM.
Okay. I'm a bit confused about Shasta. At times, especially early into the Day he looked soo evil. Really urging us to lynch Lhuna and looking confident about it & assuring us that Sally must be having good intentions. The growing frustration on his part makes me wonder though. But then again, if he's an innocent why would he stick so forcefully to his alternative which makes no sense? It looks like all that matters is that we lynch Lhuna and save Sally and everytime people point to him a flaw in his reasoning he tries to come up with a new, a bit diluted one... *Baffled*
Hah, no explanation I can come by actually makes sense in this game either... :rolleyes: But I still think we have actually about believable theories in contrast to absurd or highly impossible ones.
Brinniel
05-09-2009, 12:50 PM
I don't want to jump to conclusions here, but it strikes me that #341 (while sounding quite reasonable) is consistent with what Brinn would do if the remaining wraiths were herself and Shasta:
1. Throw Sally under the bus.
2. Try to save Shasta.
3. Try to make the village focus again on Lhuna as a lynch-candidate.
1. Yeah, that's something I would do. But seeing how Sally's behaving, who wouldn't? :rolleyes:
2. Do you really think I'd be that obvious?
3. Where did I ever try to make the village focus on Lhuna as a candidate? If anything, I was leaning further away from her and more towards Sally.
I must say Nerwen, you're behaviour is very suspicious. Bandwagoning with Noggie, faulty reasoning, aggression, and a hint of overconfidence in your posts. If Nogrod hadn't cleared you, I'd be thinking you were a wolf. Actually, your behaviour is so strange, it almost makes me want to question Nogrod. Good grief, I'm confused enough as it is, and all this weird behaviour from multiple people is just making paranoid..
We've heard from Lhuna now, though I'm still not quite satisfied. I'm not sure what exactly I expected from her, but her response seems pretty typical and tells me nothing. I guess I just hate voting someone before they have a chance to respond to an accusation, but at this point I don't think I'd vote her anyway.
Sally just looks more wolfish with every post. Honestly, I'd be surprised if it turns out she was telling the truth. It still seems odd that Sally would want to sacrifice herself like this (since she surely predicted that she'd eventually get lynched for such actions). She and Lhuna could be wolves together, but that'd mean placing two more wolves into the spotlight after already losing one. If that's so, they must be pretty confident in their final wolf (which would mean looking at someone who hasn't received much attention yet). Anyway, if Sally is a wolf, we ought to be careful who we suspect next. A wolf in her position would most likely take advantage of this time to frame some innocents or perhaps make a double bluff. Sally's a bit of a loose cannon regardless of her role, so there's no predicting exactly what she might do.
Nogrod
05-09-2009, 01:10 PM
Lhuna is making my head ache.
It all started in practise when she was alive on Day2. Knowing that Legate was a wolf it really baffled me to see her around safe and sound. Yes, her death - whether she turned out to be the seer or not - would point towards Legate but the wraiths should have taken that risk as a living seer is the most dangerous person there is.
... just a minute...
Were Legate and Lhuna thinking of this two Nights ago? That would be a nice one indeed: If one wished to argue against Lhuna as a fellow wolf (because they couldn't afford leaving a possible seer alive she must be their mate) then one should eye my continuing presence as a similar case (well a stronger case even as I'm not a possible seer to them but in fact a self-confessed and wraith delivering one eg. my continuing existence among the living proves I'm a baddie myself)?
Okay. That would make some sense indeed. Even if it looks quite a daring tactics.
But why then Sally went berserk this Morning instead of starting to suspect me on these grounds? :confused:
Back to Lhuna then.
Now the fact than Sally chose her as the target whom she claimed to know is a wolf is interesting. In her last post (which looks a lot like a baddie saying bye-bye to the game -post with the last nudges) Sally says: There's a reason Lhuna hasn't been Night killed
...
Vote Lhuna and I assure you we will kill a baddie.Looking very much like trying to make us not to lynch Lhuna. Sadly these farewell posts by baddies are always readable in too many different ways.
But anyway, choosing Lhuna (continuing to assume Sally's lupinity) might point either way. Either Sally was trying to fool us into lynching an inncent and giving us really tough time with numbers toMorrow - and risking all into my possible taking of her bait (which sounds foolish indeed). Or then she must have been trying to get either of them lynched and with a baddie revealed the other might look good enough so that you'd trust her a bit more and I wouldn't "waste" a dream on her - which might be crucial with numbers dwindling down.
Okay, the latter sounds the more likely but I'm not sure I'm ready to buy it as such. At least yet.
Nogrod
05-09-2009, 01:20 PM
Nice to see someone else around! It has been a bit lonely out here lately...
Well Brinn, what would you say if I dream of you on the Night to come? (taken out of the context this would sound a bit... :))
Nogrod
05-09-2009, 01:30 PM
Getting this out of the way then while no one else seems to bother playing... :(
++ Sally
Nogrod
05-09-2009, 01:34 PM
If I've counted it right the ranger should be able to cover me this Night so I'll have one more dream.
Any ideas and / or grounds as to whom it should be?
If I have time tomorrow I may check the few votings & the Eomer-wagon & stuff like that before making the decision. But at this moment I'd say it would be either Lhuna or Shasta, or then actually Brinn (if she's a wolf she's really hard to catch as she's so reasonable and if she's a known innocent she would really be an asset).
Do you feel good or bad about the choices? Should I really consider someone else, someone who would be hard to spot later fex.?
Brinniel
05-09-2009, 01:51 PM
Well Brinn, what would you say if I dream of you on the Night to come?
I'd say if you want to dream of me, go for it since I have nothing to hide. :)
While it can be much simpler to dream of a wolf instead, having another known innocent to trust can be just as helpful as I learned back when I was a seer and able to find wolves via process of elimination. If you're that worried about me, I'd much rather have you dream of me so that you know you can trust me rather than waste any time suspecting me come toMorrow.
Eönwë
05-09-2009, 01:52 PM
First of all:
++Sally
As much as I'd like things not to be so simple (blindly following the seer), it has to be done.
Now, with our last minutes toDay I think that instead of dwelling on toDay we should start thinking about we're going to do toMorrow.
edit: x-ed with Brinn
Nogrod
05-09-2009, 01:54 PM
I thought it was too late in the Day to try and do any listings or analysis so while waiting for someone to pop up I counted the good news for the end of the Day.
If and when we bag a wolf toDay it will be 7-2. (It looks highly likely as to top the other things Sally's last post looks so much a baddie's resignation post)
If the wolves play it safe during the Night and kill an innocent it will be 6-2 toMorrow.
But then there will be either four known innocents against four unknowns (two wolves there) eg. fifty-fifty chances - or then three known innocents, one known wolf and four unknowns (of whom one is a wolf).
If the wolves try me and fail we'll have 7-2 toMorrow. And we have either four known innocents or three + one wolf.
Not too bad I'd say.
Nogrod
05-09-2009, 01:56 PM
As much as I'd like things not to be so simple (blindly following the seer), it has to be done.You shouldn't follow blindly a seer on a matter where he has no dream to back his opinion! With those people seers are just as susceptible to error as anyone.
Now, I think with our last minutes toDay I think that instead of dwelling on toDay we should start thinking about we're going to do toMorrow.Exactly. We would have had ample time to do it but it's getting a bit late right now...
But let us hear you thoughts.
And everyones.
satansaloser2005
05-09-2009, 01:59 PM
Oooo, this is working out even better than I planned. Well, sort of....
To my packmates: Stage One is complete. Stage Two and beyond is up to you. You know who to kill and who to save for later, so keep to our plan and all will work out. I'm sorry I couldn't stay longer, but as discussed this was hopefully for the best. Best of luck to you and the village, and may the best side win.
*cackles maniacally and rides off into the sunset*
Oh, and kudos to Nienna for knowing me better than the rest of you. Job well done, darling. I'll ship you some cookies. (Though I wouldn't eat them if I were you.)
To Shasta. Thanks so much for trying to stick up for me, but you know my heart will always belong to my darling Nilp. Besides, I'm too evil for you. ;)
To Lhuna and Brinn. Quoth Mrs. Lovett, "Die! Die! God in Heaven, die!"
To Nog. The same, only with a giggle on the end. I loved flustering you, dear one.
And now, I die. Enjoy being pillaged, village!
~~Sally the Insufferable~~
Thinlómien
05-09-2009, 02:00 PM
Stop posting, dear guinea pigs.
You lynched Sally and she was a ringwraith.
Night5 has now begun and you know what to do.
The narration will be posted sometime in the future...
Nogrod
05-09-2009, 02:00 PM
While it can be much simpler to dream of a wolf instead, having another known innocent to trust can be just as helpful as I learned back when I was a seer and able to find wolves via process of elimination.Right. In some ways four known innocents looks very good against four unknowns (two wolves included). But then again, being able to reduce the wolves into one would be great indeed even if toMorrow would be even more quiet a Day... The chances would just be great in that case.
Thinlómien
05-10-2009, 02:01 PM
Night5 falls
”Okay, ladies and gentlemen, this is what we do today...” started Cap Nogrod in a manner that had become habitual.
”Excuse me, Cap Nog, I'll take it from here,” Lady Sally said, smiling sweetly. ”Thanks for covering me but I'm ready to stand up for myself now.”
”What? Nonsense! You're a ringwraith!” Nogrod insisted.
”Yes, she is!” echoed many.
”No, she isn't necessarily,” said some.
”Lhuna is one,” Sally suggested.
”Yes, she is!” echoed many.
”No, she necessarily isn't,” said some.
”This is leading nowhere,” Shasta protested.
”And this doesn't make any sense,” said Eönwë.
”And Sally's nuts,” commented Nerwen.
”Everything's nuts,” corrected Nienna.
"I say we just throw Sally off a cliff and be done with it," said Wilwa.
Others agreed and they took Sally, dragged her out and took her to the rocky shores of the Isle of the Dead. She did not fight, just smiled as the stromy wind played with her hair and cloak. Then she started laughing.
"She's mad," Rune exclaimed in disgust.
"Yeah, let's just throw her off the cliff," said Brinn.
"Byebye," said Lhuna and the three of them advanced on her. She flashed a grin and jumped.
"Bye!" she cried. And then the cry transformed into a wild, ear-piercing howl. They saw Sally's body go down. They waited a few minutes. Her clothes appeared on the surface, but there was no sign of the body.
"She's a mermaid," Nogrod said rolling his eyes.
"Or something else," commented Shasta.
There was a cold wind on them, and it was exactly the same kind of cold wind that had followed ringwraith Legate's passing,
~*~
Dead
Lommy (mod) - Lady Lómiel Starbrow, the hostess – killed on Night1
Isabellkya (ordo) - lynched on Day1
Kath (ordo) - killed on Night2
Eomer of the Rohirrim (ordo) - lynched on Day2
Kent2010 (ordo) - Black Númenórean scam artist - killed on Night3
Legate of Amon Lanc (ringwraith) - rebelling Haradian King - lynched on Day3
Groin Redbeard (ordo) - Variag Warlord of Khand - modfired on Day3
Nilpaurion Felagund (ordo) - fussy courtier - killed on Night4
satansaloser2005 (ringwraith) – lynched on Day4
Alive
Nienna - pirate
Nogrod - Corsair Captain "The Cat O' Nine tails of Ethir Anduin"
Shastanis Althreduin - King of the Sea
wilwarin538 - sorceress
Nerwen - Queen of the Sea
Rune Son of Bjarne - Tivo the Sorceror
Lhunardawen - rebelling Haradian Queen
Eönwë
Brinniel
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day5 dawns
This night there were only two of them in the salon.
"So, it has come down to just you and me," the taller one of them smiled.
"Yes, our numbers are going down fast," the other replied, looking rather grim.
"You gone by next nightfall?" the other asked cheerfully.
"Oh shut up..."
They sat there in silence, surrounded by uncomfortability.
They both felt it. They were being watched. There did not seem to be enough space for their one thoughts in their heads, daylight made things fuzzy and they could sense odd things in the dark.
"We cannot disappoint him," the shorter of the two said after a while.
"No we can't," agreed the other.
"We have to kill someone toNight yet again."
"Yes, we have to. Any preferences?"
"Yes..."
~*~
They strode along the corridors, swords unsheathed, making hardly any noise. They stopped a bit before the door of the guest they had chosen. "You go first," said the tall wraith. The other wraith nodded and took a step towards the door.
"No one goes anywhere," snarled a voice from the shadows. The two wraiths could see a figure stepping to the moonlight. She was clad in a cloak like them and holding a huge sword that was shining dangerously. The wraiths eyed each other.
"You aren't going to stop us..." they hissed.
The stranger laughed and her laugh echoed in the hallway. "My sword will stop you. You are not match for me." She swung her sword dangerously and they could see she was a magnificient swordsman. With hisses and curses, they retreated back to the shadows.
~*~
In the morning, the guests woke up, walked downstairs and met each other downstairs. No one was missing. They only started to wonder when there was no breakfast to be served. They ventured into the kitchen and were faced by a horrible sight. The body of the housekeeper lay on the floor, hacked into pieces as if in a terrible blast of frustration.
~*~
Dead
Lommy (mod) - Lady Lómiel Starbrow, the hostess – killed on Night1
Isabellkya (ordo) - lynched on Day1
Kath (ordo) – killed on Night2
Eomer of the Rohirrim (ordo) - lynched on Day2
Kent2010 (ordo) - Black Númenórean scam artist - killed on Night3
Legate of Amon Lanc (ringwraith) - rebelling Haradian King - lynched on Day3
Groin Redbeard (ordo) - Variag Warlord of Khand - modfired on Day3
Nilpaurion Felagund (ordo) - fussy courtier - killed on Night4
satansaloser2005 (ringwraith) – lynched on Day4
Alive
Nienna - pirate
Nogrod - Corsair Captain "The Cat O' Nine tails of Ethir Anduin"
Shastanis Althreduin - King of the Sea
wilwarin538 - sorceress
Nerwen - Queen of the Sea
Rune Son of Bjarne - Tivo the Sorceror
Lhunardawen - rebelling Haradian Queen
Eönwë
Brinniel
Everybody, you may discuss. Hunter, you can change your pick whenever you feel like it.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-10-2009, 02:10 PM
I hope Nogrod dreamt me. Otherwise I was probably better off not being active and getting modkilled. :o
Nogrod
05-10-2009, 03:18 PM
Sorry this took longer I expected but my modem just broke down and I had to wander here to my neighbourhood pub to make a post or two before going to sleep.
First things first.
Brinn is an ordo.
Secondly: well done ranger.
We are now 7-2 with four known innocents. Not bad at all, especially when we are probably going to see some real voting once more in the Days to come (the last two Days have given us a great result but has left a little to read afterwards as everyone has agreed).
Thridly: sorry Shasta but I thought one from the pair Brinn / Lhuna was more important to find out. You have to show us your qualities by yourself now as I'm not probably around to dream of anything toMorrow.
Nogrod
05-10-2009, 03:56 PM
Otherwise I was probably better off not being active and getting modkilled. :oThat depends on you Shasta. You must admit that your "crusade" yesterDay looked a lot like you were trying to save Sally and to get Lhuna lynched instead with reasons you never quite managed to spell out. But as it later seemed to turn out, that there were none, your earlier assuredness looks pretty bad indeed.
But there are other candidates as well - and we should discuss all the five with equal rigor if possible.
Lhuna being one of the most urgent.
Has anyone noticed this from Day1? It's so late her that it's early, so I'll vote in a bit. Shasta or Legate or sally? Hmm.Now considering that the line of suspects contains two dead ringwraiths and one of the most suspicious ones for toDay one might ask the question whether it's just a coincidence. :eek:
Now either Lhuna is a wolf and played something very brave, fun and dangerous or then the baddies actually thought that a) she is not the seer (her suspicion of Legate was just good luck as the other(s), and b) if she is a hunter she'd be too dangerous to kill. So that would explain her continued living. But were she a wolf she would be alive as well.
And anyway, she got two right from three on Day1, just like that!!! And possibly she got them all right? Either way it's just fantastic. Maybe too fantastic (see guys, no "ph" this time just to avoid the philological discussion :)).
Of the others we should look more closely toDay I'd say Rune and Eönwë share some nice grumpiness that I'd like to see as backing their innocence. But then again one could also interpret that as careful sowing of disbelief and looking if it would take root without looking too much like pushing it - which would be wise for a wolf.
Nienna is the one flying totally under my radar at this point. The only thing I can come up with her right now (without reading back that is) is that she looked overly careful in the beginning (like avoiding the end of the Day discussion to be safe) but after I remarked on it she was there to the end the next Day. Which an innocent could do as well to be sure.
Okay two of these five are ringwraiths, we just need to figure out which two.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-10-2009, 04:21 PM
Well, the main reason I was campaigning on that particular platform yesterday was because everyone else dismissed it out of hand, you know. :rolleyes:
Seriously, though, no matter what I say, I hardly think it will be listened to. After not being here for the first three days and then my abysmal performance yesterday, I feel like I deserve to be lynched. :(
At least if you do, you'll still have one day to find the other two ringwraiths, and you won't be wasting any more time on me.
wilwarin538
05-10-2009, 06:01 PM
Good job Ranger!! Yay!
Ok, so Sally's last post is kinda odd:
To my packmates: Stage One is complete. Stage Two and beyond is up to you. You know who to kill and who to save for later, so keep to our plan and all will work out. I'm sorry I couldn't stay longer, but as discussed this was hopefully for the best. Best of luck to you and the village, and may the best side win.
*cackles maniacally and rides off into the sunset*
Oh, and kudos to Nienna for knowing me better than the rest of you. Job well done, darling. I'll ship you some cookies. (Though I wouldn't eat them if I were you.)
To Shasta. Thanks so much for trying to stick up for me, but you know my heart will always belong to my darling Nilp. Besides, I'm too evil for you. ;)
To Lhuna and Brinn. Quoth Mrs. Lovett, "Die! Die! God in Heaven, die!"
To Nog. The same, only with a giggle on the end. I loved flustering you, dear one.
And now, I die. Enjoy being pillaged, village!
~~Sally the Insufferable~~
Now, my theory may be a little far fetched, especially cause I know Sally must be smarter then this, but just bare with me for a minute. So a list of everyone left:
Nienna
Nogrod
Shasta
Wilwa
Nerwen
Rune
Lhuna
Eönwë
Brinniel
Now cross off everyone mentioned in Sally's post, and you get:
Wilwa
Nerwen
Rune
Eönwë
Now cross off the two known innocents, and you get:
Rune
Eonwe
And there are 2 wraiths left......so, uhm. ya. Interesting isn't it?
All I have for now, I know it seems weird, and it could all be part of their plan....but still, the way it adds up, it seems possible.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-10-2009, 06:31 PM
Yeah, I think your theory is a bit weak Wilwa. . . It would be very unlike Wraith-Sally to totaly avoid talking about her wraith-mates. Obviously one of the reasons I am so convinced about this, is because I know that i am innocent.
Also Nogrod's theory on Lhuna's day 1 comment seems a bit far fetched, I don't see what she would gain by mentioning all her wraith-mates in a single post. Surely it would make more sense to either not mention them at all or to mix innocents with mates.
I will probably focus on Nienna and Eönwë during this day. . .but, I need some sleep now.
wilwarin538
05-10-2009, 06:57 PM
I know it is Rune, but still, I find it odd that she mentioned specific people like that.
Although, perhaps she knew someone would deduce that so she did mention one/more of her pals in that post. Which means either Lhuna, Shasta or Nienna could be wraiths, though atleast one probably is anyway. But why would she wish Lhuna dead if she was a wraith?? Unless she's trying to confuse us....and it worked...
OK, I have to stop......breathe.
So our possible wraiths then: Eonwe, Shasta, Nienna, Rune and Lhuna.
I'm gonna take a bit to read back at what these ones said, mainly yesterDay and the Day before, and then I'll also go back to see Sally's too...and maybe Legate's if I have time.
Lhunardawen
05-10-2009, 07:49 PM
I'm sorry, there will still be rather minimal participation from me toDay.
So possible wraiths include Nienna, Shasta, Rune, Eonwe, and for the sake of argument, Lhuna.
First off, I'll try to answer some of the suspicions directed at me. Nogrod, if I were a wraith I won't be so bold or careless as to heavily suspect a fellow wraith, much less two, on Day 1 and risk them getting lynched so early. You know me, I'm hopeless as a baddie and I can't work alone. Maybe they did fear then that I could be the Hunter - which I'm not - but if that saved my life then thanks for their mistake. And I'm as surprised as, if not more than, all of you that I got the two of them first Day. I just really found them both suspicious. (Whoa, this has got to be a first. :smokin: Sorry, just had to gloat at myself there for a while. :D)
But maybe I was wrong about Shasta - at least right now I'm leaning towards that. Somehow I really have a feeling that the last two wraiths are relatively unsuspected ones, which was why sally was bold enough to try yesterDay's ruse. Personally, the three remaining unknowns are all slipping under my radar. So for me it's two of the three of them.
I wish I had time to go through each of their posts. (Darn med school.) But right now all I can say is that from what little I can guess of sally and based on her last post, Nienna isn't looking too good.
I hope to be back earlier than I expect so that I'll have time to look around.
Lhunardawen
05-10-2009, 07:57 PM
One last thing before I leave:
I am the Ranger. So please don't lynch me.
It probably seems rash but look at it this way: Now we only have four unknowns.
wilwarin538
05-10-2009, 07:59 PM
Ok (done fairly quickly, sorry if anything here isn't accurate):
Eonwe: Did that odd list on Day 2 I believe, at the time was not suspicious of Sally or Legate. Followed Legate (and Rune) with the Izzy vote. Voted Eomer last minute on Day 2, caused a tie. Also considered the possiblity that Sally was innocent, or that Nogrod was guilty. Voted Sally. I'm fairly suspicious of him.
Rune: Voted same as Legate Day 1 (for Izzy). Very sure of Lhuna's innocence on Day 2, and Eonwe's guilt. Voted Eonwe. Had mixed feelings of Legate and Sally at the end of the Day 2. Had that idea of Lommy giving roles to people she was closer too. Voted Legate. And Sally next Day. I'm very unsure of him.
Lhuna: Voted Legate Day 1, when there was still many votes to come. No vote Day 2. Voted Legate when it was expected. And Sally. I'm definitely leaning towards innocent, mainly cause of the Legate vote Day 1 and cause Sally was trying so hard to get her killed.
Nienna: On Day 1 voted for Sally when there were still tons of votes to be had, could have been a risky wraith-on-wraith vote. The next Day in a list Sally was the only one she saw as being completely Evil, was good with Legate. Voted Sally again that day, putting her tied with Eomer, again when there were many votes to be had. Voted Legate Day 3, but that was expected. Voted Sally yesterDay, also expected. Because of how strong she was against Sally I'm leaning innocent, but she's very under the radar so that makes me unsure.
Shasta: Hadn't posted too too much, until yesterDay he did more, was trying to say that Sally could be an ord trying to protect the seer, kinda understandable I suppose. Was quick to jump on Lhuna being guilty. Said this toDay:
I hope Nogrod dreamt me. Otherwise I was probably better off not being active and getting modkilled.
If he was guilty and Nog revealed that, there would be no reason for him to post, thus being just as useful as if he was modkilled. If he was innocent and Nog revealed that then he could give his oppinion and be far more useful then being modkilled. Therefore, he was only better off being modkilled if he`s guilty. Right? So....I'm leaning guilty.
Ok, so I'm thinking that atleast one of the two baddies was mentioned in Sally's last post, cause that's seeming more logical to me now (more I think about it more my theory from earlier makes no sense). I doubt she'd have mentioned both, and I doubt she'd have left both out. So that means one of Lhuna, Shasta and Nienna are evil, and one of Rune and Eonwe are evil. My personal opinion is thinking Shasta and Eonwe.
So....I'm off to bed, I should be on quite a bit tomorrow, especially the last 4ish hours of the Day.
X'posted with Lhuna....well I believe her, I was actually thinking she was the Ranger anyway, so this doesn't really come as a surprise to me.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-10-2009, 08:08 PM
If he was guilty and Nog revealed that, there would be no reason for him to post, thus being just as useful as if he was modkilled. If he was innocent and Nog revealed that then he could give his oppinion and be far more useful then being modkilled. Therefore, he was only better off being modkilled if he`s guilty. Right? So....I'm leaning guilty.
What I meant was, if I'd just been modkilled, I wouldn't have been around yesterday to muddy things about Sally and I wouldn't have gotten so much wasted innocent attention focused on me instead of the wraiths. That's all.
Nienna
05-10-2009, 09:38 PM
Instead of doing my school work I will commence analyzing the unknown villagers. For obvious reasons I am leaving myself for someone else to analyze.
First Lhuna
Day One:
Nog and Eomer feel innocent, Legate and Shasta worrisome, Sally being creepy, Nilp being bored, Nerwen alright, thinking of voting Sally, Shasta, or Legate (62 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595190&postcount=62))
Votes Legate as having her strongest suspicion (first vote for Legate I believe) (64 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595196&postcount=64))
Day Two: Didn't post or vote
Day Three:
Glad trusted Nog, Sally looking very suspicious (265 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595761&postcount=265))
Says innocent (268 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595765&postcount=268))
Analyzes Eomer voters: (of the unknown people) inclined to suspect Eonwe because of weird list shortly before DL. Of the rest not sure of Nienna or Rune votes Legate (282 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595812&postcount=282))
Day Four:
No real time to post, told Sally she was ingenious to try and take down an innocent with you, thinks there could be a wraith-Eonwe or a wraith-Rune slipping under the radar, sure about Sally being a wraith and votes Sally (373 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596104&postcount=373))
Day Five:
Is sorry about minimal participation toDay, responds to Nog’s comments about having a list including two wraiths…says she just got lucky and they were acting suspicious, thinks is wrong about Shasta from aforementioned list, most suspicious from Sally’s final post is Nienna (398 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596208&postcount=398))
Comes out as Ranger (399 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596210&postcount=399))
My thoughts are that she is looking pretty innocent for me. It would have been really risky for Sally to give up another wraith. Then again I thought it was really risky for a wraith to come out as seer. The only other thing that worries me about Lhuna is that Sally said that if we lynch Lhuna she assures us that we will catch a baddie. But this really depends on how we should take Sally's assurances and definitions of 'baddie.'
Nerwen
05-10-2009, 09:38 PM
Regarding Sally's "Mwa-ha-ha! Everything is going according to my evil plan!" speech :
Look, it could be a bluff. While I think there may be some general plan behind the wraiths' conduct, I also suspect Sally was largely acting on her own yesterDay. They may have decided during the Night that she would impersonate the Seer, but my guess is that he details were left to her, and that she basically messed them up.
Alternatively, she may have been simply trying to make as much noise and create as much confusion as possible, in order to draw attention away from her fellows... suggesting that at least one of them has a chance of slipping through.
So, who are the last two wraiths? Well, unless they're Shasta and Lhuna, then at least one of them is among the currently "under-the-radar" group of Nienna, Eönwë and Rune.
Now cross off the two known innocents, and you get:
Rune
Eonwe
And there are 2 wraiths left......so, uhm. ya. Interesting isn't it?
All I have for now, I know it seems weird, and it could all be part of their plan....but still, the way it adds up, it seems possible.
Okay... I'll second Rune here: it's more likely that Sally would mention one and not the other.
However, we can't dismiss the possibility that she did what you (Wilwarin) suggest just because it's unlikely.
Regarding Lhuna's reveal:
Not sure, but I'm currently more inclined to believe her than not. We'll see. I said yesterDay why the "wraith-on-wraith" theory doesn't really make sense... with the caveat that I can't see any way of getting what Sally did to make complete sense.
EDIT: X'd with Nienna.
Nerwen
05-10-2009, 09:47 PM
My thoughts are that she is looking pretty innocent for me. It would have been really risky for Sally to give up another wraith. Then again I thought it was really risky for a wraith to come out as seer. The only other thing that worries me about Lhuna is that Sally said that if we lynch Lhuna she assures us that we will catch a baddie. But this really depends on how we should take Sally's assurances and definitions of 'baddie.'
Look, I think there is a limit to how much we can deduce from what Sally did yesterDay. As I said in my last post, either she was deliberately saying stuff that didn't add up, or she had a plan and it backfired.
Her closing remark about Lhuna could be a bluff... or a double-bluff... or a triple-bluff... no way of telling.
Brinniel
05-10-2009, 09:56 PM
I am the Ranger. So please don't lynch me.
Yeah, I guessed you were probably innocent. It just didn't make sense to me that Sally would place two wolves in the spotlight; it seemed more likely she was just trying to get an innocent lynched (maybe they guessed you were the ranger). I don't think it was necessary for you to reveal since I doubt you would've been lynched; at least I wouldn't have voted you. But I can understand your concern and indeed it does narrow down our options.
So our two wolves are either:
Shasta
Nienna
Eonwe
Rune
The good news is that we still have our hunter around; the longer they stay alive, the better chance they'll kill a wolf. If we do lynch an ordo toDay and the hunter happens to be among the unknowns, then they will have no doubt about who the two wolves are by Night. If this situation were to occur, it'd be a good idea for the hunter to reveal toMorrow so that we would know the final two for certain.
Of course, it'd be nicer if we lynched a wolf toDay and we do have a 50% shot. Three out of four of those unknowns have fallen under my radar, so they definitely need looking at. Shasta may look bad after yesterDay, but I don't think he's a wolf. He'd be a lot smoother than that I think were he evil, and not so obvious. Actually Rune concerns me most because he has fallen under my radar, which normally doesn't happen (that, and he never tried to get me lynched in this game :p ). I've actually never played with an evil Rune, so I really have no clue how he'd behave as a wolf.
Unfortunately, my participation will be minimal again. I'm starting my internship tomorrow which goes like a normal workday, so the late afternoon deadline is a lot worse for me compared to when I was in school. I'm gonna vote tonight since I really can't be late tomorrow and WW tends to delay me. However, I'll try to take a close look at our suspects before I vote since there aren't many of them.
Nerwen
05-10-2009, 10:36 PM
We can narrow toDay's lynch down further, I think:
The unknowns.
Lhuna– no. Too much risk she's telling the truth.
Nienna– no. May be a sneaky, low-profile wraith– but for the moment, she hasn't done anything to warrant being lynched. (Again, Sally's parting remarks aren't evidence either way.)
That leaves–
Shasta
Rune
Eönwë
I have to go now, but I'll be back with my thoughts on each of them.
Brinniel
05-10-2009, 10:58 PM
++ Sally
*sorry dear* *cough cough* "I mean ... GARRRR... Walk the Plank"
Your vote for Nog worries me a bit. It almost seems like a bandwagon vote and those are never good. Nog was being a little zealous but I addressed my issue with that and he doesn't seem suspicious to me.
Would there be a wolf-on-wolf vote on Day 1? Possibly. This was the second vote for Sally, but I don't think there was much risk of her getting lynched.
Legate of Amon Lanc - No Idea - I'm not really really sure whats up with him. I'm not getting any overly good or bad vibes. Voted Izzy Day One. He is being reasonable.
Shastanis Althreduin - No Idea - Voted Nog Day One
Rune Son of Bjarne - No Idea - voted Izzy Day One. I have really no idea... could go either way.
satansaloser2005 - Evil - Voted Nog day One with no real reason and voted I'm getting terrible evil vibes from her. This could be just the way she is playing or that she can't post much but if she is innocent she needs to post something helpful really really soon for me to not vote for her.
Eönwë - No Idea - Voted Izzy at the last minute.
Hmm...still pursuing Sally. Thoughts on the other wolves/unknowns are a bit vague.
++ Sally
Now would a wolf pursue a mate multiple Days? It's happened before, though I think it less likely.
First a question:
Sally are you the seer? If so why would you reveal if Nog was doing so well by himself?
I've read the thread... and think I know all the possibilities but my problem most lies with the fact that Sally never openly stated that she was in fact the seer. She made a seer dream list and said who was guilty and who was innocent so far and she said she has a role but she did not say what that role was. By reading her post it can be inferred that she is the Seer but I would believe her more if she said openly that she is the seer. Does that make sense?
I've been getting evil vibes from Sally for some time now and I've been keeping my eyes on her but a seer reveal now seems like it would be too risky for one of the wolves.
Her statement that Sally never actually revealed is rather odd since I think the implication was pretty obvious. She suspected Sally the first two Days, but slightly backtracks when everyone else starts suspecting her, which concerns me slightly.
Brinniel
05-10-2009, 11:19 PM
Very little from him on the first Days aside from banter and a random vote.
Sally is the type of person who would do exactly as she's doing now as a bored Ordo, attempting to protect the person she thought was the Seer. Nogrod, I think you're being overly paranoid.
In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.
This does look pretty bad, but I doubt he'd be so obvious like that.
How many errors do you count in that statement? I count... two.
1. You suspect me. Why? I can't have given you anything to suspect me on - I haven't been able to post. The only reason you say you suspect me is because you don't like that I haven't been able to participate as much as I normally do, Nogrod, admit it.
2. I defend the liar so consistently. ...Wait, consistently? I make one post offering an alternate explanation as to why Sally has been saying what she's been saying - one, mind you, that you seem to have rejected out-of-hand - and not only do you say I'm "defending" her, but that I'm doing it "consistently"? With one post? Rethink that, maybe, and get back to me.
Defensiveness. Could come from either side.
I'll be around to vote tomorrow, but I'm going to sit down and shut up because all that's come of me being active today is I've been A) chastised for not being active during the first few days and B) suspected for being active today and bringing an alternative idea to the table.
Sounds like a frustrated ordo here.
Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me.
Good point, though he could be double bluffing. He acts with obviously wolfish behaviour because others might not expect a wolf to be that obvious. Possible, but less likely I think.
Beloved one, I must confess all manner of ideas have passed through my head. Perhaps Sally is a secret role. Perhaps Sally's attempting to be helpful. Perhaps Lhuna-wraith mis-sent a PM. I really can't fathom her reasoning. I simply wish not to exclude alternative explanations out of hand.
These possible explanations do seem rather absurd.
I hope Nogrod dreamt me. Otherwise I was probably better off not being active and getting modkilled.
A pity post. Could go either way.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-10-2009, 11:28 PM
For what it's worth (not much), I think the last wraiths are Nienna and Rune.
Re: the last post Brinn quoted - I wasn't looking for pity. I was being serious, as I explained later.
Brinniel
05-10-2009, 11:33 PM
Well, lets see. We have a three way tie. If people are just going to go last minute crazy then I don't know what'll happen. I don't want to kill Nog yet, and I've been killing Sally off too much in the past when she's innocent, so
++Izzy
Perhaps a wolf saving a mate from possible lynching?
Nienna - A pirate eh? You know what we do to pirates...
Kent2010 - He might scam us into joining him
Legate of Amon Lanc - rebels are never good for a stable society. I saw giive 'im the same treatment as pirates"
Nogrod - I don't fancy bein' hit by 'is famous The Cat O' Nine tails
Shastanis Althreduin - Pshhh! King?
wilwarin538 - A magic doer. Evil most likely.
Nerwen - See Shasta
Nilpaurion Felagund - can't be too fussy when lynchin'
Rune Son of Bjarne - See Wilwa. Only he has a more dramatic name.
Lhunardawen - See Legate
Eomer of the Rohirrim - Rohan? I dont like them thar people.
Groin Redbeard - The warlord is quiet. Who know what he plots
satansaloser2005 - Who is she? No fancy title? Why is she here?
Brinniel - See Sally
A lot of people found that post suspicious. I think he was harmlessly trying to be funny, but was unsuccessful due to bad timing. A mistake that could be made from either a wolf or an innocent.
Nienna - Seems like she's trying to help, but maybe a little false. However she may just not be getting any vibes like me, so I'm not ready to incriminate her yet.
Legate of Amon Lanc - Mixed. There are many things he says that seem reasonable and helpful, while some things he says just seem a little sinister, but there's nothing I can pin down.
Shastanis Althreduin - hasn't said much. Not enough for me to say anything on.
Rune Son of Bjarne - I have no idea. He just comes and goes in waves. A very grey area for me.
satansaloser2005 -Seems a little victimised to me. She hasn't really said anything I find suspicious.
Doesn't really tell much.
I don't really like trusting seer reveals too often, so I don't really like the way the village immediately believes him. He could just be a manipulative wolf with a well-though-out case. Werewolf is after all a manipulative game so it's best to be wary.
Nevertheless, I've thought before that something seems a little wrong with Legate this game, and I guess this is our chance to test it (I doubt we could lynch anyone else by now anyway). At least then we will know the identity of at least one wolf (Legate or Nogrod).
And even if Nogrod is a wolf, and the real seer hasn't spoken up yet (and why should they, they're in no danger) then at least the true identity of the seer will be kept hidden and they can continue finding out roles.
This post sounds a bit like a cautious wolf.
++Sally
As much as I'd like things not to be so simple (blindly following the seer), it has to be done.
Again, this post gives a wolfish vibe. Seems like he's begrudgingly voting her...perhaps he's not happy about it because she's his mate.
Nerwen
05-10-2009, 11:39 PM
[Nienna's] statement that Sally never actually revealed is rather odd since I think the implication was pretty obvious. She suspected Sally the first two Days, but slightly backtracks when everyone else starts suspecting her, which concerns me slightly.
Ah, yes. I'd forgotten about that. It could even be read as Nienna trying to suggest a way out to Sally. (Bear in mind, though, that she's a relative newbie.)
EDIT:X'd with Brinn.
Brinniel
05-10-2009, 11:46 PM
Nogrod is more agressive than normal and not bringing anything new to the game, but is that a good enough reason to lynch him on day 1? probably not.
Legate seemed resonable, but then there is small inconsistensies. . .
I think I will go for a person I have not been able to read at all, you know people who have posted, but you feel completely indifferent about their posts.
That would make my list look like this:
Kent
Kath
Isabel
Brinn
Lhuna
Wilwa
Of these Isabel seems to be the most careful. . .could be a sign of an evil doer trying not to expose her self. (Or it could just be a day 1 post)
So basicly this vote is 98% random.
++Isabellkya
All players on that list are innocent. Coincidence? Or perhaps the list of a wolf?
I knew I did not have a good case and that more often than not, it is an ordo who is lynched on day 1. . . Why would I go out and try to convince everyone to vote Isabel, when I was not at all sure of her guilt?
I am only obligated to tell why I vote as I do, I don't have to campaign for others to do the same.
A lot of back and forth with Nogrod and defending himself. Could be the response of an innocent or wolf.
++Eönwë
His way of playing so far don't sit right with me. He needs to say more about what he thinks and not just comment on what other people say. The only problem I have with voting this way, is that I have a feeling that this could just be the way Eönwë plays, no matter if he is bad or good.
Eonwe was at risk of getting lynched that Day, though considering he was the first to vote him, they could still be wolves together.
Nogrod is the seer and the wraiths were stupid not to kill him, Sally is Ordo or Wraith.
and
Nogrod is a wraith who sacrificed a mate and Sally is an ordo trying to help the seer.
. . .wait. . .forget it, the only thing I can conclude is that the scenario Sally = Seer, Nogrod = Wraith is not likely.
My problem is that I can easily see Nogrod as a wraith bluffing, but the same goes for Sally.
He's very reasonable in his posts regarding the possible scenarios of yesterDay, but also a bit careful.
Brinniel
05-10-2009, 11:48 PM
Meh, they all look like possible wolves to me. But from looking back at their posts, the most suspicious to me is:
++Eonwe
Someone should take a look at the known wolves' posts. I would, but I really need to get to bed, so I'm afraid this is all from me.
Nienna
05-11-2009, 12:01 AM
On Eönwë:
Day One:
Comes ish-late to day one (72 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595206&postcount=72))
Tries to look at things from multiple sides (74 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595208&postcount=74))
'Ph’ discussion (83 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595218&postcount=83))
Thinks Brinn vote for Sally looks suspicious, more ‘ph’ (88 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595224&postcount=88))
Not sure about Kent (100 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595236&postcount=100))
Votes Izzy at DL because he doesn’t want to kill Nog and he tends to vote Sally a lot and she turns out to be innocent (115 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595252&postcount=115))
Day Two:
Thinks Kath was killed as a no trail kill/typical night one kill (127 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595366&postcount=127))
Something about Eomer and being jumpy, does think Eomer speaks reason (198 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595496&postcount=198))
Backing up what he said about Brinn’s Sally vote to Nog (209 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595523&postcount=209))
Non-serious list 22 minutes before DL (211 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595527&postcount=211))
Responds to Nog some more (213 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595529&postcount=213))
Gives a real list 1 minute before DL: mixed feelings on Legate, Shasta he doesn’t have much to go on, Lhuna under his radar, doesn’t find Sally suspicious (235 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595551&postcount=235)).
Votes Eomer to save himself a self-proclaimed innocent at last moment to tie votes (239 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595555&postcount=239))
Day Three:
Doesn’t think that people should blindly follow the seer, is inclined to think Legate guilty anyway, votes Legate (287 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595827&postcount=287))
Day Four:
Would be suspicious of Nog if he wasn’t the seer, think’s Nerwen’s logic is strange on a Sally scenario, gives his own scenario with Nog, Nerwen, and Sally/Shasta as the three wolves (359 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596083&postcount=359))
Has and clears up some confusion based on his thoughts of Sally/seer/wraith scenarios (365 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596093&postcount=365))
Thinking his theory is less and less plausible but that WW is about theories (368 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596097&postcount=368))
Votes Sally (384 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596133&postcount=384))
Day Five: Has not yet posted toDay
My thoughts are a bit mixed. I'm glad that he doesn't want us to blindly follow but his suspicions of Nog even though he thinks Nog is the seer are vaguely counterproductive. He has also had some strange and suspicious voting.
Nienna
05-11-2009, 12:02 AM
These massive post by post analyzations are taking me forever. I desperately need sleep so I will finish the other two tomorrow but it will be later in the Day.
Nerwen
05-11-2009, 01:40 AM
So, leaving aside Nienna, who may be evil but who I can't see getting lynched toDay, we've got Shasta, Rune and Eönwë.
Firstly, I don't see why Shasta is sliding off people's suspicion-lists. Sure, his behaviour is almost too obviously wolfish... but so was Sally's!
However, I talked about Shasta yesterDay, and now I want to say more about the other two.
Basically, yesterDay they both did a "minor-Shasta", in that they came up with implausible theories of Sally's innocence. (Or, in Eönwë's case, a "they're all in it together" scenario.)
Now, Nogrod may think well of Eönwë for refusing to "blindly follow" his lead in lynching Sally... but I beg to differ.
For my part, I can say that I was not simply following Nogrod's lead. Did anyone say, "Yeah, I'll lynch Sally because Nog says so"?
No. Her behaviour was highly suspicious... so much so that the wilful blindness of these three to it looks very bad indeed. (Of course, it has to be innocent in at least one case!)
True, Rune and Eönwë did not go all out defending Sally, but here's what they did say:
There is also the possebility that Sally is the seer and deliberatly chose to give wrong information about Nogrod. so that the wraith would think her an ordo. That way she could get 1 wraith lynched (Lhuna) and one more dream before revealing that Nogrod was a baddie.
To be fair, he does conclude that "no possible explanation makes sense"... so he could be trying to feel his way through different possibilities.
To me these two scenarios are the most likely:
Nogrod is the seer and the wraiths were stupid not to kill him, Sally is Ordo or Wraith.
and
Nogrod is a wraith who sacrificed a mate and Sally is an ordo trying to help the seer.
. . .wait. . .forget it, the only thing I can conclude is that the scenario Sally = Seer, Nogrod = Wraith is not likely.
My problem is that I can easily see Nogrod as a wraith bluffing, but the same goes for Sally.
Now, by this time it had been pointed out multiple times why Sally's behaviour was extremely unlikely to stem from a desire to help the village. So even if it wasn't self-evident to Rune, he's got no excuse simply to ignore the points already made by others.
Ok, this just seems a little strange to me... if he wasn't the seer (well, as far as we know), I would definately be going after him. Seems like a slip. Why would he be suspecting Lhuna every now and then? Like he's trying to distance himself from her. Nogrod being the relentless WW player that he is would either mention her as seeming more innocent, or would go after her, at least a little bit (because she wasn't his main target).
He then quotes me out of context in order to criticise my "strange logic", followed by:
How about a crazy theory:
Nogrod, Nerwen (a "proven" innocent) and Sally/Shasta are all wolves and are just trying to confuse us. Nogrod puts Wilwa in the "proven innocent" category to gain the support of a true innocent (or possibly even a gifted- they're all still alive I believe).
Not very likely, but it's best to think of every option. If it is true, they're amazing.
Firstly, note that the "crazy theories" of these two (unlike Shasta's) seem to be aimed at the one thing that would really help the wraith team: discrediting Nogrod as the Seer and thus also taking away my and Wilwa's credibility as known innocents. (The second worst thing for the evil side, after being dreamed themselves, is to have such a high ratio of known to unknown players around that they'll get caught just by elimination.)
Now, I don't rule out that they may be genuinely worried that there's something strange going on (in fact, judging from the Night kills, there is something strange going on). Again to be fair, the wording of the quote of Nogrod's that Eönwë objects to does look rather wolfish.
That said, it just looks too much like they're throwing out these suggestions just to see if anyone will bite on them.
I'm particularly not rapt in this last bit (from the same post by Eönwë):
also don't like the fact that everyone seems to be agreeing with everyone, even though the general idea is shifting throughout the Day. Something doesn't seem right there.
Oh really? Just because most people came to the logical and obvious conclusion that whatever Sally was up to, she had to be guilty?
EDIT: X'd with two Niennas.
EDIT2: Clarification.
Nerwen
05-11-2009, 02:03 AM
I'll be out for a few hours, but I'll just leave everyone this quote to ponder:
From yesterDay:
Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did.
Is that in fact why Sally did it, Wraithta Althreduin?
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-11-2009, 03:13 AM
Talk about bad timing. . . I will have to do alot of writting today and from the looks of it I will also have to defend my self today.
So Lhuna is our Ranger. . .it is a shame that she has revealed her self, a ranger is very nice to have arround in the closing stages. A hunter revealing would have been much nicer, as it is a person the wolves would have to think twice before attacking.
The stage is set and looks like it is going to be a fight between me and Eonwe. Which is odd, because the wraiths have been acting very strange, so I think it is a distinct possebility that Shasta is a wraith that attached him self to Sally. Normally I would guess that the two wraiths left was of the more silent type, but with this bunch anything is possible.
wilwarin538
05-11-2009, 06:38 AM
Alright, I'm seeing lots of analysis on the mysterious 5, good good, I'm gonna go back and look at the known baddie posts abit more throughly. Then I shall return...
Nogrod
05-11-2009, 07:06 AM
For starters...
So Lhuna is our Ranger. . .it is a shame that she has revealed her self, a ranger is very nice to have arround in the closing stages. A hunter revealing would have been much nicer, as it is a person the wolves would have to think twice before attacking.You're right about it being good to have a ranger in the end as she could really make a difference but no can do.
But the hunter should really think about the following.
The hunter is one from the four last unknowns as my dreams have turned out plain ordos. So the hunter coming forwards now might be pretty nice indeed as it would reduce our chances of lynching an innocent into 1/3 (three unknowns of which two are wolves) and nice lynching list toMorrow and the Day after if we miss!
Also if a wraith tries a fake-revealment we'd have 100% kill as the hunter could take away the faking villain with her and leave the village as our wraith-killing hero!
What do you say hunter? Your pick!
I'l go reading the thread now. Back with hopefully some more ideas after a while.
wilwarin538
05-11-2009, 07:33 AM
OK, Sally first, just took some random posts that seemed to have something valuable, most of her others didn`t really say much regarding other players:
Eomer's being rather snobbish; I thought that was Nilpie's role.
Kath's being quiet, so is Nienna. No change there. Same for Wilwa.
Cap'n Nog's being a bit of a brute, and I'm not sure I like it. Is he still paranoid from his last voyage or does he have darker motives for being so accusatory?
Rune has picked up on this behavior, and for now I think he'll be allowed to stay, if only because he's very astute and I think he can bring order to this mess.
Nilpie hasn't shown up, but I'm assured he's innocent. He couldn't possibly be otherwise, the sweet thing. Together we'll make this little band of miscreants a bit more ship shape, if you'll excuse the pun. Then again, you'll probably not even get it, so why bother to explain? *sighs, fans herself* I think these proceedings are a bit much for my delicate constitution. Hopefully Nilp will bring me a drink when he returns. He's always so considerate. And did I mention innocent?
Shasta and Nerwen are dirty, thieving pirates. It wouldn't surprise me if they're murderers as well.
Seemed good with Rune, and against Shasta, but that doesn't really mean much, especially cause this is a pretty random Day 1 post.
The weird thing is that although I think Eomer's acting very suspicious, at the moment I don't think he's a wolf. Does that make sense?
I'm still troubled by Noggie, and I've still been getting bad vibes from Lhuna. In my book my beloved Nilpiekins is innocent and I'm sure Brinn is too. Lhuna's crossed over to the dark side, though. I'll look over her posts again, but I think I may be voting her toDay. Maybe....I don't know. I'll have to see.
With Nog though, I think it's just the general mistrust (or rather, hesitation to trust him) that I always have for the poor kid. YesterDay he looked really off the wall and he still does, but I'm a bit doubtful that it's for dark purposes now. I'll have to make my final decision later, but I think I'll leave him alone for the rest of the Day and see how things shape up after the vote toDay.
Again, not much.
Okay, so here's what I know.
Brinn: innocent
Nog: innocent
Legate: wolf
Lhuna: wolf
Everything should be in order, and if you have questions feel free to ask. First, an explanation....
I appreciate Noggie's devotion the last Day or so, and imagine my surprise when he posts and says that he's dreamt Legate! However, since I already knew he was innocent and that Legate was in fact a wolf I didn't want to say anything to the contrary. That was of course the reason for my hesitation though, and I'm saying something toDay because:
A: I'm not sure how long the entire fake seer thing (handy though it was) can last
B: since Lhuna's now confirmed as a wolf as well as Legate, I think it's worth the risk
C: hopefully there will be some confusion about who to kill, since it's possible that they may not know who to believe (for example, it's possible that I'm faking instead of Noggie)
D: I'm stressed because of finals and frankly I'd rather like to get the stress of all the secrecy off my system. Besides, if I die I'll have more time for finals. ;) Also, I've been rather skittish (as you all know I am when I have a role) and I'm afraid if I don't say something now you won't believe me later. Besides, at least now I can impart some knowledge to you before I (or Nog, though preferrably neither) go.
Hmmm....yeah, not really much here either I suppose, expect now we know for sure she was definitely trying to get rid of an innocent Lhuna.
Oooo, this is working out even better than I planned. Well, sort of....
To my packmates: Stage One is complete. Stage Two and beyond is up to you. You know who to kill and who to save for later, so keep to our plan and all will work out. I'm sorry I couldn't stay longer, but as discussed this was hopefully for the best. Best of luck to you and the village, and may the best side win.
*cackles maniacally and rides off into the sunset*
Oh, and kudos to Nienna for knowing me better than the rest of you. Job well done, darling. I'll ship you some cookies. (Though I wouldn't eat them if I were you.)
To Shasta. Thanks so much for trying to stick up for me, but you know my heart will always belong to my darling Nilp. Besides, I'm too evil for you.
To Lhuna and Brinn. Quoth Mrs. Lovett, "Die! Die! God in Heaven, die!"
To Nog. The same, only with a giggle on the end. I loved flustering you, dear one.
And now, I die. Enjoy being pillaged, village!
~~Sally the Insufferable~~
There`s gotta be something here. I`m still sure that atleast one of the last wraiths is mentioned here, I doubt both and I doubt she`d leave both out.
So...Sally didn`t give us much.
Legate, lots of posts, but here`s two lists he made:
Right, I am here, and have read all, it seems most of the people have shown and even contributed, at least to some point. So, here is now a short list of what I think of the situation this far. Already some thoughts are beginning to crystallize (shoton, as people say in my homeland), so I hope by the end of the Day I should have enough to come up with at least partially clear picture.
Kath - so far little input. Kath already makes me feel uncomfortable, as always, and I can't read her. As always.
Nienna - despite the first sort of exchange with Nog, I am inclined now to see her behavior as genuine, and not as a particular intention to fly under the radar. Thus, hope to see her posting more in the future: like I said, this far, the picture seems genuine.
Kent2010 - he did not say practically anything this far. I don't know whether I should take the "let's make a deal" as anything worth considering: actually, I thought that it is a mere in-role talk and thus did not give it any in-game value. Well, though of course, I don't know him, so it may be possible that he would try to win people's favour in this way, "buddying" with them. But anyway, I would need to see more from him to be able to judge anything.
Nogrod - Nogrod is being his normal quiet-people-chasing self, and seemingly something has happened in recent games that made him pursue this habit even more forcefully. Let me say in this place that I agree with him, but this far it seems that hopefully people will post. Nogrod himself does not particularly raise my suspicion: if something happened to him, he's perhaps a bit more of a zealot?
Shastanis Althreduin - posted a bit and even voted, but just a little; so I can only hope that there will be this more participation that he promised in the future.
Isabellkya - stating obvious and dismissing Day 1, well that's quite simple and everybody could do that: I would like to see more.
wilwarin538 - the first impression is somewhat positive, I think she is trying to make some input, I only once again hope that there will be more in the future. It is yet quite some time till the end of Day 1, so let's see...
Nerwen - well hey, I would like some more out-role input...
Nilpaurion Felagund - not have been around yet
Rune Son of Bjarne - he actually reminds me of the typical Rune who weighs arguments of everybody... so he makes me feel him as rather innocent.
Lhunardawen - I guess my dear wife should learn her place, but now I would like to see more than one-(or few-)liner input from her.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - well that is one I cannot quite relate with, okay, he has this "offensive" mask, but overall, I am not quite sure what he's up to. Unclear, I'd say: sort of casting suspicion, or something, or rousing feelings, in a bit unclear way. So is there anything he is okay with, except for hating everybody, or what part of it is actually just roleplaying? Or what part could be casting wraith-y nets with hiding behind roleplaying? (By the way, I think people should slowly quit roleplaying after second, third post they make anyway. Or at least try to not mix the reality with roleplaying to the point that it is unclear.)
Groin Redbeard - not around yet
satansaloser2005 - this far, she's being more or less like her usual self, though it seems to me a bit defensive with her reaction to Brinn's vote, which was, like Brinn said, random. Well, whatever - let's see what comes in the future.
Eönwë - not around yet
Brinniel - all right, seems that she is now mostly busy with RL stuff, so I'm leaving her out for now, hope to see her around more in the future!
Okay, actually, all in all, for Day 1, it is quite good. Might have been worse. I am probably going to leave in a short while, but I will be around perhaps for a minute or two yet. Anyway, I shall be back in the evening (several hours before DL), so then. Hope that by that time, people who haven't posted yet will post, and those who posted will post more so that the picture of the may become clearer to me. So, till later...
Seemed good with Nienna and Rune here...pretty iffy about most though.
Okay, I'm around just for a little bit, so I'm very very quickly posting a short summary of people as to toDay...
Nienna - is basically not around. Now, I would not like to start about that, but I think people who are silent should try not to be that silent anymore, because otherwise nobody is able to read anything about them.
Kent2010 - I was somewhat unsettled by something in his posts at the beginning of this Day, but otherwise the feeling of him reasonable and trying remains.
Nogrod - still looks quite like a typical Nogrod, and even his recent sort of outburst does not seem any suspicious to me or anything.
Shastanis Althreduin - did he post anything toDay?
wilwarin538 - with the recent posting with Eomer and all I am becoming again a bit more confused, so I don't know. Maybe it would do good to look at her in total... or then maybe who knows, as sometimes she seems to me quite hard to get. "Chaotic."
Nerwen - somewhat hard to say, she gets harder to read when she posts, though basically the feeling I'm getting about her is genuine
Nilpaurion Felagund - not posted much more, hope to see more in the future
Rune Son of Bjarne - looks still more or less the same to me, like a good Rune
Lhunardawen - did not post toDay yet
Eomer of the Rohirrim - okay, I probably really do not get him, but whatever. I could understand if he was trying to lay traps for Wraiths, but the way he posted really does not make much sense to me. He makes me feel uneasy... have to think more. Because really making no sense in some ways... if there was a Cobbler, it would have been easier to say.
Groin Redbeard - did not post AT ALL... I hope he shows up :(
satansaloser2005 - posts a bit more scarcely, so it's hard to say now. I would certainly like her to post more: otherwise, just sticking with my feelings from yesterDay.
Eönwë - he showed for a bit in the beginning, I think, but did not really say much. Hope he will show up yet too.
Brinniel - also did not quite show up yet toDay either, unless I missed something?
Overall, one thing I don't like is that this far - the really lack of posting from many people, just basically today only some posted - hope the following almost-four hours will make a difference... (well, I can also imagine that when I come back home there will be two more pages :rolleyes: ) I will be hopefully back at some two hours before DL for certain, and then keep around...
edit: x-ed with nerwen&sally
Basically he just says that he wants everyone to talk more...
So I have not gotten much from them, except that both seemed good with Rune. Perhaps others can see something I did not.
I have to go to work for a few hours, I`ll be back about 4-5 hours before the deadline.
X`posted with Nog
wilwarin538
05-11-2009, 07:38 AM
But the hunter should really think about the following.
The hunter is one from the four last unknowns as my dreams have turned out plain ordos. So the hunter coming forwards now might be pretty nice indeed as it would reduce our chances of lynching an innocent into 1/3 (three unknowns of which two are wolves) and nice lynching list toMorrow and the Day after if we miss!
Also if a wraith tries a fake-revealment we'd have 100% kill as the hunter could take away the faking villain with her and leave the village as our wraith-killing hero!
What do you say hunter? Your pick!
I'l go reading the thread now. Back with hopefully some more ideas after a while.
Oooh, good plan. I was gonna say it earlier but I was scared that it would cause a fake reveal. I hadn`t thought of it that far. Makes sense.
I personally think that is a wonderful idea. Either way though, I believe we have this. There are 9 players,including 2 baddies, 3 unknowns and like 5 known innocents. Is it even possible to lose now?
Alright, I'm gone for real now.
Nogrod
05-11-2009, 08:11 AM
Good posting toDay, interesting thoughts and some good spotting.
Just a few notions on Sally to begin with - just to ease my mind and have some sense in what hapened yesterDay.
Good point Lhuna in thinking that Sally's mates have been relatively unsuspected as that would make her amok-run more understandable. If she would have succeeded then there would have been a lot ot buzz around Lhuna, Brinn (& possible other innocents she had mentioned) and her on Days to come. But now we have managed to counter it leaving Sally dead, Brinn known innocent and Lhuna a very believable ranger. So that just backfired - if there was a plan after all.
For even if you Brinn are sceptical about it, your mentioning of the possibility that Sally felt uneasy just seems to fill the place of the missing motive for her to go for it with a full risk. Look at how much she has been suspected on earlier Days! She probably really feared she was going to get lynched and thus tried the spectacular way - and if she felt confident with her mates then why not?
Okay. Then to more pressing matters.
Nerwen
05-11-2009, 08:16 AM
Okay, now that everyone's posted and there's been no counter-claim, I guess Lhuna is officially a known innocent.
That's a good idea about the Hunter, Nogrod.
And, Hunter– apologies for the following insult to your intelligence:
whatever you decide to do, please make sure your pick is one of the unknowns!
EDIT: X'd with Nogrod.
Nogrod
05-11-2009, 08:23 AM
Okay, now that everyone's posted and there's been no counter-claim, I guess Lhuna is officially a known innocent.Has Eönwë posted Today, after Lhuna's revealment?
EDIT: Checked it out. Eönwë has not posted toDay. So let's wait for him before declaring the situation. But for now I would still recomend concentrating the search into the four others...
Nerwen
05-11-2009, 08:27 AM
Has Eönwë posted Today, after Lhuna's revealment?
Ah, now that you mention it, no he hasn't. I thought he had.
Nogrod
05-11-2009, 08:57 AM
Sorry Shasta, but I will start with you once more.
There is a lot in your posting that shouts you're an innocent who is just a bit messed up with things (which would be understandable taken your limited participation so far).
Like Brinn said, there are many posts that would be either be too daring or too genuine / frustrating -looking which might point to your innocence.
But there are bad ones as well. Like Nerwen said it's improbable you didn't get the argument quite a many of us tried to bring forwards - namely that if an innocent and bluffing Sally wouldn't have acted in a way of presenting us a "baddie" to lynch when she couldn't have known Lhuna's role (why sacrifice a possible innocent if your sole task is to bluff to save the actual seer?). Just remember that at the same time you said you believed in my seerness. So your thoughts don't make sense while ours do.
No you could argue for a point that I am a false-seer who fools all of you and sarifices his mates. That would be a fair reason to defend Sally's "knowledge". But you never did say that out aloud. On the contrary you said you trusted me and just looked for different explanations. That is a bit weird. Why didn't you take that "obvious step" if you actualy believed Sally?
Also I'm a bit uncomfortable with this one with which you started the whole Day:
I hope Nogrod dreamt me. Otherwise I was probably better off not being active and getting modkilled.Now if you were an innocent that would be just venting off some frustration - which is totally believable or at least within limits of it. But why start the Day like that as it would be known pretty soon anyway whom I dreamt of?
But if you were a wraith that might be a decent try. Had I not dreamt of you, you might do better looking such frustrated and disappointed to yourself.
Also there is this possibly a minor "slip" (if it is one) that one should never overlook - even if one should not base one's voting solely on these kinds of things. (bolding mine) you'll still have one day to find the other two ringwraithsNow I'm not a native-speaker and you should correct me if I'm wrong, but using the word "other" there really looks like a slip! Even if the number (two) is right the term "other" really bothers me there. Even classy hero-wolves (Roa hates me for life for nailing her that way :)) have been known to make that kind of slips.
But to refrain a little, I must beg either Nerwen or Shasta to answer to following: Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did.
Is that in fact why Sally did it, Wraithta Althreduin?How do wraiths detect rangers and be such cool with it that they pull out a campaign like Sally did to lynch them?
My problem with lynching you Shasta is that the wolves might be sneakier and better to hide. Both Rune and Nienna have been quite careful - which can be seen from the fact that one can't make points against them as easily as with you (and Eönwë I think stands somewhere between).
If you're an innocent you shouldn't leave us Shasta even if your frustrated. Come forwards and speak your mind, especially about the other unknowns.
Nogrod
05-11-2009, 09:14 AM
Blah, have to go now even if I only had time for Shasta. Look at the admin. thread.
If anyone has time, please continue looking at Nienna, Rune and Eönwë as well.
And hunter, please do consider.
Hoping to be back sooner than later...
Nerwen
05-11-2009, 09:32 AM
Also there is this possibly a minor "slip" (if it is one) that one should never overlook - even if one should not base one's voting solely on these kinds of things. (bolding mine) Now I'm not a native-speaker and you should correct me if I'm wrong, but using the word "other" there really looks like a slip! Even if the number (two) is right the term "other" really bothers me there.
I wouldn't read too much into that, Nogrod. It probably just means "the remaining wolves".
to refrain a little, I must beg either Nerwen or Shasta to answer to following: How do wraiths detect rangers and be such cool with it that they pull out a campaign like Sally did to lynch them?
No idea, actually– I quoted that precisely because it's such a weird suggestion and seems to come out of nowhere. It made me wonder whether it could have reflected a last minute PM from Sally: "Fine, kill Nilp then... but I've just got this hunch Lhuna's the Ranger... what if I try to get her lynched toMorrow...?" Or something along those lines.
So... I'm still waiting for Shasta's answer.
EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.
Nienna
05-11-2009, 10:35 AM
Ok I have weighed the options and I believe that revealing as the Hunter will be only productive for the village.
I am the Hunter.
We now only have three unknowns and two of those are wolves.
I'll continue to look at Rune and Shasta who I have not yet analyzed but I'm not sure how much time I will have because they seem to take me forever.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-11-2009, 10:37 AM
Ok I am at the internet place now. . .I payed for 1 hour so far, but I will stay for longer if that is needed (although it is expensive).
I will go read through the posts now.
Lhunardawen
05-11-2009, 10:54 AM
Whew. Thanks, Nienna.
So we're down to three...
I haven't got much time for anything, so I'll do a quick re-read and then vote.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-11-2009, 11:33 AM
Hmm I am in kind of a weird situation. . . I am obviously one of the main suspects today, yet I am not faced with serious accusations.
Tell me, is it even possible for us to loose now? How many unknown do we have 3? With 2 wraiths. . .surely we can kill all 3 before the wraiths can kill the rest of the village. Is there any loopholes that I have not spottet?
Since Nienna is the hunter, it leaves me with Eonwe. When I see the way he plays i just keep on thinking "wraith wraith wraith", but as I stated earlier (one of the earlier days) he seems to play in this way all the time.
Lhunardawen
05-11-2009, 11:47 AM
If I stick to my theory of sub-radar wraiths, then it's possible that Rune and Eonwe are the final two.
I'm not comfortable with voting for Eonwe without him having posted toDay. Since we're playing a numbers game now, albeit one turned to our favour, I think we should be hearing from all sides. But I do have to vote now and get some sleep. This leaves me with
++RUNE SON OF BJARNE
Compared to Eonwe, he seems to be more careful and guarded. I'm not used to him being like this.
Good night y'all.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-11-2009, 11:54 AM
Have I played the quiet game?
I know I "fell" under Brinn's radar and that freaking hurt, but other than that. . . (sorry bad joke)
I have been fairly quiet since the seer reveal and that is not something I normally do, but before that I was resonable loud.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-11-2009, 11:55 AM
and btw I have half an hour left here at the cafe. . .I really do not want to spend more money here, but it seems that I have to.
(please show up and start posting/voting)
Nerwen
05-11-2009, 11:55 AM
I don't like voting someone who hasn't posted, but after another re-read,
++ Eönwë looks the evillest of the lot.
EDIT:X'd with Rune (twice).
Nerwen
05-11-2009, 12:01 PM
Since Nienna is the hunter, it leaves me with Eonwe.
And Shasta, remember... surely you haven't forgotten him?
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-11-2009, 12:05 PM
And Shasta, remember... surely you haven't forgotten him?
No, but Nienna and Eonwe was the people I thought was our remaining wraiths.
Shasta is complicated. . .
Nerwen
05-11-2009, 12:06 PM
Anyway, village, unless something goes very badly wrong, we'll either get a wraith toNight or know the last two toMorrow.
Good night.
X'd with Rune.
Nerwen
05-11-2009, 12:10 PM
No, but Nienna and Eonwe was the people I thought was our remaining wraiths.
Shasta is complicated. . .
Well, if it's not you, and if you accept Lhuna and Nienna's reveals...
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-11-2009, 12:12 PM
Well, if it's not you, and if you accept Lhuna and Nienna's reveals...
I know. . . I know. . .
wilwarin538
05-11-2009, 12:16 PM
Wonderful, thank you Nienna!
So out of the last three I'm most sure of Eonwe being guilty.
Then out of Rune and Shasta I'm leaning towards Shasta, but that can be left for discussion tomorrow. Unless the majority votes Rune.
Ok, well I'll be around on and off for the next hour and a half or so, I think I'll hold off my vote for now.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-11-2009, 12:23 PM
++Eönwë
(I will be here for 10 more min.)
Eönwë
05-11-2009, 12:26 PM
Has Eönwë posted Today, after Lhuna's revealment?
No, I haven't. But since everyone else no-one has tried to counter-claim, then I suppose it means that Lhuna is the ranger, unless we have a really quiet ranger who doesn't yet want to be revealed. I would guess that the real ranger would have come out by now if Lhuna had been faking. So yes. Now it is everyone.
Nogrod
05-11-2009, 12:40 PM
We seem to be agreeing all of us once more... That doesn't exactly help us as theremaining wolf / wolves can easily follow that. If we had competition they would have to choose sides - one of thembeing under pressure.
That would be better.
(Back in and about - now some more re-reading or discussing if anyone's around)
Eönwë
05-11-2009, 12:50 PM
Oh really? Just because most people came to the logical and obvious conclusion that whatever Sally was up to, she had to be guilty?
No.
People suspected Sally from the beginning. Then people attack Shasta. Yes, he did defend Sally a bit but only because no-one even considered that she could be innocent. I think he was making a point more than defending her. But that's not all I'm talking about. On a smaller scale there were all sorts of things that seemed to just suddenly spring out of nowhere and suddenly have everyone agree. Including the Lhuna thing where people suspected her and unsuspected her together (I'm going to need to reread and get some quotes, but that's how it felt when I came in)
Also, this uniformity is the same toDay. I know that the reveals seem like they make sense but no-one has even questioned them. This is partly what I mean about following. Where's the independence? Everyone just seems to trust anyone that "reveals". What if the real gifteds want to remain silent. What if one of Nogrod's "chosen ones" or me or Rune is a gifted and just doesn't want to reveal at such a risky time?
edit: x-ed
Eönwë
05-11-2009, 12:51 PM
Also
Anyway, village, unless something goes very badly wrong, we'll either get a wraith toNight or know the last two toMorrow.
Why toNight? Surely you mean toDay?
PS. Will be back in around 20 minutes
Nogrod
05-11-2009, 12:51 PM
If I got it right the votes thus far are (known innocents bolded):
Brinn -> Eönwë
Lhuna -> Rune
Nerwen -> Eönwë 2
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Now Rune's vote is more than understandable given the situation but as it has been mainly known innocents voting I'd appreciate you others would come up with other cases as well as to see how the remaining wolf/wolves would react in a more competitive situation.
Also let's see if Nienna will face some competition... :)
Anyway, Eönwë has been argued for, Shasta has been for and against; then how about Rune?
Nienna
05-11-2009, 12:51 PM
On Shasta:
Day One:
Votes Nog I think because of picking fights – first vote for Nog (42 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=595157&postcount=42))
Day Two: Didn't vote or post
Day Three: Didn't vote or post
Day Four:
Thinks Sally’s probably a bored ordo and that Lhuna is definitely a wolf (311 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596009&postcount=311))
Analyzes Lhuna, wonders why Nog’s going to vote Sally who is only a possible wolf when Lhuna is a probable wolf (320 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596021&postcount=320))
Gives 3 scenarios all detailing why Lhuna is probably a wolf: Sally’s the seer, Sally ’s an ordo lying to protect Nog so probably has good reason for throwing Lhuna under the bus, and Sally as a wraith who is trying to protect Lhuna (321 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596022&postcount=321))
Defends his three scenarios and says that Lhuna is the more probable wolf (322 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596024&postcount=322))
Doesn’t understand why Nog suspects him as he hasn’t posted much, only presents an alternate story to Nog about Sally (327 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596029&postcount=327))
Doesn’t think that Nog makes any sense in not suspecting Lhuna (329 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596032&postcount=329))
Still thinks Sally could be an ordo trying to protect the seer (331 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596037&postcount=331))
Gives one more scenario which is that a Sally–Wraith is trying to get a Lhuna–Ranger killed (335 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596044&postcount=335))
Says not desperate to save Sally but to put alternate theories on the table (337 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596050&postcount=337))
Doesn’t like how people were just assuming that Sally was guilty, irritated that Sally isn’t defending herself after he’s stuck his neck out for her (342 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596055&postcount=342))
Because of Sally’s lack of defense he is starting to go with the majority (345 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596058&postcount=345))
Didn’t vote
Day Five:
Thinks he might have been better off being mod-killed (391 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596186&postcount=391))
Thinks he deserves to be lynched (394 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596200&postcount=394))
Thinks the last wraiths are Nienna and Rune (409 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=596220&postcount=409))
This isn't looking very good for Shasta having only voted once and that for our Seer. He was also very vocal all Day Four and yet failed to vote. He actively tries to get Lhuna killed for a good portion of yesterDay. He is being really defensive and there is also the chance that he is just an unfortunate innocent who is just trying to help the village win. He said he was willing to be lynched because then we will at least know the other wolves.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-11-2009, 12:59 PM
What if the real gifteds want to remain silent. What if one of Nogrod's "chosen ones" or me or Rune is a gifted and just doesn't want to reveal at such a risky time?
This "risky time" was the whole point of Lhuna and Nienna revealing. We've narrowed the lynch list down to three, and since I know (even if no one else does) that I am innocent, that leaves Rune and Eonwe. Now it's just a matter of which one goes first. Eonwe has more votes, so...
++Eonwe
Nogrod
05-11-2009, 01:05 PM
There is a time and place for everything dear Eönwë.Also, this uniformity is the same toDay. I know that the reveals seem like they make sense but no-one has even questioned them. This is partly what I mean about following. Where's the independence? Everyone just seems to trust anyone that "reveals". What if the real gifteds want to remain silent. What if one of Nogrod's "chosen ones" or me or Rune is a gifted and just doesn't want to reveal at such a risky time?Funny how Legate also called for independent thinking before he went down... :rolleyes:
But anyway. There are probable scenarios, believable scenarios, possible scenarios, problematic scenarios, mad scenarios and downright impossible ones.
If you think that this common consesus that exists is just a great plot you should show us the plot and how the details would fit in to explain things from D1 to this moment better than the one we seem to most of us believe is the case.
Then I would be ready to hear your mur-mur and consider looking at the things a new - although I will not think again what I know, eg. that Wilwa, Nerwen and Brinn are ordos & I'm the seer. Those are things I have learned from Lommy and could not believe she would have fooled me.
But can you come up with even one reasonable explanation why the real ranger - or hunter to that matter - would like to remain silent at this kind of a moment when we are so near winning the whole game?
If you're the hunter it would be your duty almost to reveal now. Then we could lynch you and you could then take the lying Nienna with you. And we would cheer you as our champion toMorrow as it would be revealed to us when you heroaically die.
And if you're the ranger you might as well reveal as you can't protect me the next Night anyway and if Lhuna is lying the village needs to know it (if you leave your reveal too late it may become 50-50 vote in a decising situation where people may choose wrong as it's a flip of coin in the worst instance).
So if you can come up with a plausible theory I will listen to it in earnest. But before that I'm going to take Lhuna's and Nienna's revelations as believable enough to guide my actions toDay.
And must say your last post did raise my suspicions on you quite a lot...
EDIT: X'd with Nienna & Shasta
wilwarin538
05-11-2009, 01:07 PM
Yes, well I will vote now, I need to get some work done:
++Eonwe
Even if he isn't then we know who the other two are. Quite wonderful really. We had 4 wolves to start , and it took us a few days to get a wraith, but we're still doing quite well.
x'posted with Nog
Nogrod
05-11-2009, 01:17 PM
Oh, and adding to the earlier one: If you Eönwë are the seer - or anyone - you really should come clear right now. The ranger defended me the last Night so s/he might help you the next one (and you should have some new knowledge to turn the tables with five dreams of which at least a few should be alive) as with this small numbers the chances you'll be killed on the next Night are pretty high indeed! You'd do with the protection, right, unless you're a wolf who doesn't need it?
So how do I not see anyone of you three coming forwards? :rolleyes: (Facing death is always the easiest situation to speak openly)
Eönwë
05-11-2009, 01:36 PM
If you think that this common consesus that exists is just a great plot you should show us the plot and how the details would fit in to explain things from D1 to this moment better than the one we seem to most of us believe is the case.
I'm not saying that everything is just a plot. I'm saying that the Lhuna and Nienna reveals have been taken for granted.
But you want a plot, here's an idea...
How come you're still alive? You revealed a while ago and you're still alive after something like 3 Days? Let me ask something. Why haven't the wolves killed you? Legate could have just been a sacrifice to cement your seerishness, allowing you to take charge of the village. Every day you claim a new person to be innocent, yet even in Day 1 you vote Sally yet claim that you haven't dreamt her? And obviously, being a wolf, you would know exactly who was innocent and who was guilty so everyone you cleared would believe you and support you. You could even throw one of your fellow packmates into it, to keep them safe. I'm sure they wouldn't object to it either. Also, I'm sure the real seer could be quietly working away, and not need to reveal, and if they did (they wouldn't need to toDay because its obvious the wolves are voting you toNight and if they don't they're you're probably one. And an extra Night is always useful. And if they're one of the ones you cast suspicion on, then you may actually be the one to keep them alive another day- wanting not to waste a kill but to get them lynched.) you could overrule it, after gaining the support of over half of the village. And then you're on the unstoppable march to victory, with the innocents and maybe even gifteds backing you.
Happy now?
But can you come up with even one reasonable explanation why the real ranger - or hunter to that matter - would like to remain silent at this kind of a moment when we are so near winning the whole game?
The ranger wouldn't have any need to come out unless threatened. And who would believe them? (Well, actually, this village would). And what of tactics? People have all sorts of strange plans.
And I'm not saying that no-one came out.
Nienna
05-11-2009, 01:52 PM
++ Eonwe
Nogrod
05-11-2009, 01:53 PM
Of Shasta and Rune I think Shasta looks more bad but Rune feels fouler.
I've been arguing about Shasta enough I think so just a few short ones on Rune topping what you others have said this far.
For you to consider toMorrow.
Especially the early comment like this make me feel bad about Rune:
Legate seemed resonable, but then there is small inconsistensies. . .Added with his gentle (:rolleyes:) but consistent suspicion of me whatever happened (untill I was relly believed to be the seer) it makes him look a bit suspicious. Careful but suspicious just because of that.
Also when he voted for Legate - after my revealment of course - he said as his only reason for voting: I never liked him anyway. . .Now even taking Rune's manner of being grumpy that is a bit too much for someone with whom he plays on the other side of...
From the beginning I thought he was too defencive, even if he countered that by saying that he always wishes to answer things said of him. It let me feel a bit strange with him.
Added with his interesting martyrdom toDay being at a "costly" internet-cafe saying (bolding mine): and btw I have half an hour left here at the cafe. . .I really do not want to spend more money here, but it seems that I have to.I have not seen Rune taken such an effort for this game ever before. So he must have something going on there?
Funny he should have been the first to suggest that Lommy had "chosen" people she knew better to have roles (eg. me and Legate). Now if he turns out a wraith, then... *ditto* :p
Nogrod
05-11-2009, 01:59 PM
But you want a plot, here's an idea...
How come you're still alive? You revealed a while ago and you're still alive after something like 3 Days? Let me ask something. Why haven't the wolves killed you? Legate could have just been a sacrifice to cement your seerishness, allowing you to take charge of the village. Every day you claim a new person to be innocent, yet even in Day 1 you vote Sally yet claim that you haven't dreamt her? And obviously, being a wolf, you would know exactly who was innocent and who was guilty so everyone you cleared would believe you and support you. You could even throw one of your fellow packmates into it, to keep them safe. I'm sure they wouldn't object to it either. Also, I'm sure the real seer could be quietly working away, and not need to reveal, and if they did (they wouldn't need to toDay because its obvious the wolves are voting you toNight and if they don't they're you're probably one. And an extra Night is always useful. And if they're one of the ones you cast suspicion on, then you may actually be the one to keep them alive another day- wanting not to waste a kill but to get them lynched.) you could overrule it, after gaining the support of over half of the village. And then you're on the unstoppable march to victory, with the innocents and maybe even gifteds backing you.
Happy now?Much more happy than I was before. Sad I only now realised there was that post of yours (I was writing my earlier post into the admin. thread... :().
Now I'm going to be very sorry if you turn out innocent - which I don't believe by the way.
But there's spirit and I do like that. Way to go Eönwë! And btw. no sarcasm involved. That was the best I hve sen this far.
Although inspired by Eönwë here I dare you wolves to try and leave me alive this Night. Let's see if you have the nerve for it. :D
Eönwë
05-11-2009, 01:59 PM
Also, funny how Nogrod hasn't "dreamt" of any of the gifteds. One could easily be hiding under the safety of the innocent title.
Beware! Nogrod might be using you!
edit:x-ed
Thinlómien
05-11-2009, 02:00 PM
You lynched Eönwë, who was a ringwraith.
Night6 has now begun and I need the pics from the seer, the ranger, the hunter and the remaining ringwraith.
Narration will be posted before I go to sleep (in two hours).
Nogrod
05-11-2009, 02:00 PM
okay, even if it's a bit dull now
++ Eönwë
Remember guys, Shasta looks bad but Rune might be worse even if he didn't look like it imediately.
Eönwë
05-11-2009, 02:00 PM
Oh well... *dies*
Thinlómien
05-12-2009, 02:30 AM
Gloomily, they sat around the round table. They felt they had ruled out most possibilities, but no one felt really hopeful. That might have been because Lord Thinroz had joined them shortly after noon and his mood was not of the most pleasant sort. He was upset with the death of his innocent housekeeper, to say the least.
”Do you have any opinion on the identity of the remaining murderers?” Lady Brinniel tried to enquire.
”Yes,” Lord Thinroz said. ”But I'm not going to share them. Carry on!”
No one felt like upsetting the host further, so they didn't say anything. Only Rune the Sorceror muttered: ”What a helpful attitude he has...”
”Shhh he's almost certainly not a murderer – not sane enough to do anything, I dare say - so let's not talk about him, but others,” Rune's fellow sorceror, Wilwarin, whispered.
And talk they did, and discovered many interesting things, until the sun started to set and they had to make a decision.
”Lord Eönwë, you'd better walk the plank,” Nienna said.
”Aye,” said Captain Nogrod.
”What plank?” Eönwë asked coolly. ”I cannot see any planks to be walked here.”
The two pirates eyes each other unsurely. The infamous Queen of the Sea, Nerwen, came to their rescue.
”This might serve as a plank,” she said and gave them a chair.
”Walk the plank, loser!” growled Shasta, Nerwen's husband.
Eönwë rolled his eyes and sat down on the chair. ”This is how you intend to kill me?”
”No, they said you have to walk the plank, not sit on it,” interfered Queen Lhuna from Harad.
So, Eönwë climbed to stand on the chair. Then he took one step and was standing on the floor.
”Happy now?” he asked.
”Hmm the idea did not quite work...” Nerwen muttered.
”It only needs some fine-tuning, my love,” Shasta comforted her.
”I know!” said Brinn suddenly. ”Let's use a rope!”
”A rope?” asked Nogrod, looking a bit puzzled.
”If someone has a rope when he walks the plank, he can use it to climb back onboard,” Nienna said, looking equally puzzled.
”Even if he has the rope around his neck?” Brinn asked sweetly.
”Good idea!” said Lhuna. ”I will go and see if there's a rope somewhere.”
After a while, she returned with a beautiful black rope. ”Is this good?” she asked.
”Excellent,” Brinniel smiled and tied it around Eönwë's neck.
”Now, climb back on the plank and jump again,” Nienna told Eönwë.
”You mean the chair?” Eönwë asked.
”Yarr!” said Cap Nog and threatened him with his cutlass.
”Alright...” said Eönwë and climbed on the chair again and came down just as before.
”And then?” he asked.
”It still didn't quite work,” Nerwen observed.
”Just because the bloody rope was not tied anywhere,” Shasta grumbled.
”Oh, good point!” the others agreed.
They looked up. The roof of the hall did actually have a few good places to attach the rope to, but it was very high.
”That might prove a problem...” Lhuna sighed.
”Not with me around,” said Wilwa who had remained silent so far.
”Nor with me,” said Rune.
Together, the two sorcerors made a simple spell that attached the rope to the roof.
”Now you can climb on the chair again,” Wilwa told Eönwë.
”Last time it was a plank,” he muttered, but climbed on it anyway.
Rune went to him and adjusted the rope. ”Now it should be tight enough to reach the ground once he jumps.”
”1, 2, 3, go!” said Nerwen.
Without any ceremonies, Eönwë stepped down from the chair once more. This time, the rope tightened around his neck and his face started to turn red. His feet were desperately trying to find the chair.
”I'll confiscate this,” Shasta said and moved the chair away from Eönwë.
They watched him struggle until his movements grew weaker and then he did not move at all. A wail escaped his dead lips and a pile of clothes dropped on the floor. Eönwë himself was nowhere to be seen, but there was a cold wind in the hall.
~*~
Dead
Lommy (mod) - Lady Lómiel Starbrow, the hostess – killed on Night1
Isabellkya (ordo) - lynched on Day1
Kath (ordo) – killed on Night2
Eomer of the Rohirrim (ordo) - lynched on Day2
Kent2010 (ordo) - Black Númenórean scam artist - killed on Night3
Legate of Amon Lanc (ringwraith) - rebelling Haradian King - lynched on Day3
Groin Redbeard (ordo) - Variag Warlord of Khand - modfired on Day3
Nilpaurion Felagund (ordo) - fussy courtier - killed on Night4
satansaloser2005 (ringwraith) – lynched on Day4
Eönwë (ringwraith) – lynched on Day5
Alive
Nienna - pirate
Nogrod - Corsair Captain "The Cat O' Nine tails of Ethir Anduin"
Shastanis Althreduin - King of the Sea
wilwarin538 - sorceress
Nerwen - Queen of the Sea
Rune Son of Bjarne - Tivo the Sorceror
Lhunardawen - rebelling Haradian Queen
Brinniel
Thinlómien
05-12-2009, 02:00 PM
The moonlight came from the high window and only one tall shadow was cast on the floor. He was alone, and he could feel it as a heavy burden on his shoulders. Their success was dependendent on him now, and hope was failing him. But it was no use sitting here alone. He took his sword, his beautiful blade, his only remaining ally and stepped into the corridor.
Meanwhile, Captain Nogrod was sitting on his bed and not sleeping. True, he had prepared a drink for himself, like all the nights before, and even drunk it, but he had not been able to fall asleep. He had slept badly last night and he suspected he had only narrowly escaped death then. Now he had a feeling he would not escape. He caressed his cutlass and sighed. He knew he could have run, but there was nowhere on the island to run to, and it would still be at least a week before his crew would come to fetch him home.
The door opened with a soft crash and a tall, hooded figure stepped into the room holding a long, fine sword. In the pale moonlight the figure looked unnaturally dark and hazy, as if not quite from this world. ”I have come for you, Cat O' Nine Tails of Ethir Anduin,” he smiled. Captain Nogrod was filled with dread, but he gripped his cutlass and stood up. ”You may try to take me!” he shouted and swung his weapon. The cloaked one parried it easily, and his hood fell back.
”You!” Nogrod exclaimed. He could recognise the features of the pale and unearthly face. The wraith laughed. ”Yes, it's me, and I will not waste my time fighting with you and make the same mistake as King Legate did!” Nogrod attempted another blow at the wraith's direction. ”I have learned a new trick. How do you like it?” He leaned closer to Nogrod, and breathed, and the pirate captain felt like falling, falling somewhere deep, dark and cold, falling into despair. Trying to cling to consciousness, he could hear the cold laugh ringing in his room and see a flash when the moonlight was reflected on the sword.
~*~
In the morning, the guests were waken by Lord Thinroz himself. The old man was singing an old lullaby absent-mindedly while wandering from room to room and waking his guests by loud ”wake up!” cries. The sleepy lords and sorcerors wandered into the corridor.
”What's happened?” Wilwarin the Sorceress wondered.
”What's wrong with him?” King Shasta demanded.
No one had an answer.
”Are we all here?” asked Lady Brinniel.
They looked around. Captain Nogrod was nowhere to be seen. They made it for his room, and saw Lord Thinroz standing by the body of the pirate captain. ”They killed him,” he said. ”More blood under my roof. More blood in my house! How dare you?” He eyed his guests viciously, eyes glowing with rage. None of the guests made a reply.
”Look!” said Queen Lhuna. ”There's a weird-looking bottle on his table.”
Queen Nerwen picked it up. "Some herbal potion," she concluded with slight disgust.
Rune the Sorceror bent to examine it. ”Dreamflower extract,” he said. ”Those who can truly use it can make it give them dreams of especial clarity and meaning.”
The guests exchanged glances. So, Captain Nogrod had truly been what he had claimed to be, and now they would have to do without him. ”Dead? Him?” asked Lord Thinroz. ”Now you lost the only one who sees in the dark.” He laughed, and it was a hollow laugh, devoid of joy or even malice.
~*~
Dead
Lommy (mod) - Lady Lómiel Starbrow, the hostess – killed on Night1
Isabellkya (ordo) - lynched on Day1
Kath (ordo) – killed on Night2
Eomer of the Rohirrim (ordo) - lynched on Day2
Kent2010 (ordo) - Black Númenórean scam artist - killed on Night3
Legate of Amon Lanc (ringwraith) - rebelling Haradian King - lynched on Day3
Groin Redbeard (ordo) - Variag Warlord of Khand - modfired on Day3
Nilpaurion Felagund (ordo) - fussy courtier - killed on Night4
satansaloser2005 (ringwraith) – lynched on Day4
Eönwë (ringwraith) – lynched on Day5
Nogrod (seer) - Corsair Captain "The Cat O' Nine tails of Ethir Anduin"
Alive
Nienna - pirate
Shastanis Althreduin - King of the Sea
wilwarin538 - sorceress
Nerwen - Queen of the Sea
Rune Son of Bjarne - Tivo the Sorceror
Lhunardawen - rebelling Haradian Queen
Brinniel
wilwarin538
05-12-2009, 02:21 PM
Poor Nogrod. He did such a wonderful job!
So what we know:
Nienna: Hunter
Wilwa: Ord
Nerwen: Ord
Lhuna: Ranger
Brinniel: Ord
Rune and Shasta: one Ord, one baddie
Doing pretty well I think. I'm going to go back through yesterDay's and see what I can see about these two. And even if we guess wrong then we'll just get the other next Day! Pretty wonderful I have to say.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-12-2009, 02:23 PM
1 wraith left, right?
It should be fairly easy. . . Just lynch Lhuna.
I am the Ranger!
When Lhuna made her false claim yesterday, I decided not to counter claim at once until I had considered all options. . .plus people have a tendency to belive the person who makes the claim first. Unfortunately I lost my internet connection and when I finally got to the internet cafe, there was no way I could counter claim without looking like a wolf trying to escape death. Also I hoped that Lhuna would vote for somebody else than me and thus reveal the other wraiths identity.
If you don't want to lynch Lhuna, then lynch me. . .that way you can see for yourself that I am the Ranger. Just don't lynch Shasta, we would gain very little from it.
Hopefully my internet will be up and running before the deadline.
wilwarin538
05-12-2009, 02:41 PM
Uhm....yeah, I still believe Lhuna, mainly cause I had a very strong feeling that she was the Ranger even before she revealed.
So, I say lynch Rune. And lets say that he actually is the Ranger, which I doubt, then we lynch Lhuna tomorrow and still win.
Nienna
05-12-2009, 04:08 PM
Sounds like a plan to me.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-12-2009, 04:15 PM
I came to post, but then realized... there's not a lot to say, is there? Good try, Rune.
Brinniel
05-12-2009, 07:17 PM
Haha, I was about to get on and say our final ringwraith might as well give up now since they'd be exposed by toMorrow if not toDay, but I see he sort of already has.
Well I suppose you might as well go down fighting; it's more fun that way, but I had figured the last baddie was probably you Rune. :smokin:
Nerwen
05-12-2009, 08:15 PM
Well, that makes it simpler, doesn't it?:smokin:
After reading through Rune's and Shasta's posts from Day 1, I'd come to the conclusion that it would have to come down to a coin toss, since they both looked equally bad.
Not that it matters, really, since it's now only a question of how soon we finish.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-12-2009, 10:44 PM
Nerwen doesn't really love me. :(
*grumblegrumbleLadyMacbethgrumble*
Brinniel
05-12-2009, 11:19 PM
Ooh, I guess I shall be the first to vote (again). :rolleyes:
++Rune
I'm interning again tomorrow so I shouldn't be around for the rest of the game (unless I have time to drop by in the morning). So I'll see everyone on the other side...
Nerwen
05-13-2009, 03:10 AM
Nerwen doesn't really love me. :(
Aww... there, there. I was just trying to teach you a lesson, my dearest.;)
Oh, yes, and–
++Rune Son of Bjarne (AKA Tivo the Sorcerer)
I never did trust that landlubber of a wizard!
EDIT: fixed quotes.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-13-2009, 03:33 AM
Uhm....yeah, I still believe Lhuna, mainly cause I had a very strong feeling that she was the Ranger even before she revealed.
So, I say lynch Rune. And lets say that he actually is the Ranger, which I doubt, then we lynch Lhuna tomorrow and still win.
Well, your feeling is wrong.
And yes we will win no matter what, but I would like to actually make it to the end and not give Lhuna the satisfaction of getting me killed.
I knew Brinn would not trust me, but to be frank I thought that Nerwen would belive me. . .I base that on our talk yesterday about who to lynch.
I don't know if any of you remember this, but a long time ago I sugested that we looked at who the mod might pick instead of what had been done in the game. I did that because I found it unbelivable that me, Legate and Nogrod had gotten special roles by chance. . .Would I draw atention to such a thing if I was a wraith?
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-13-2009, 03:36 AM
Why do I bother. . .I am dead anyway. Lhuna will defenitly vote for me and so will Wilwa from the looks of it, then my destiny is sealed.
I will be expecting appology rep from everyone who votes for me today.
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-13-2009, 03:53 AM
Night2: Lhuna (I was torn between her and Kath, but chose Lhuna because we had not played together for a long time)
Night3: Nogrod
Night4: None (It seemed clear that the wraiths would kill Nogrod and I did not want to limit my options for the next night)
Night5: Nogrod (Succes)
Night6: Nienna (Just in case)
Nerwen
05-13-2009, 04:23 AM
*shrugs* Well, sorry, Rune, if you really are the Ranger... but don't you understand that revealing this late leaves the village no choice?
Nerwen
05-13-2009, 04:28 AM
I don't know if any of you remember this, but a long time ago I sugested that we looked at who the mod might pick instead of what had been done in the game. I did that because I found it unbelivable that me, Legate and Nogrod had gotten special roles by chance. . .Would I draw atention to such a thing if I was a wraith?
Why not? Or, to put it another way, why draw attention to it if you're a gifted?
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-13-2009, 04:34 AM
*shrugs* Well, sorry, Rune, if you really are the Ranger... but don't you understand that revealing this late leaves the village no choice?
No I don't understand. . . Just because you make your claim first it does not mean that you are right.
As I said I lost my internet connection shortly after I read Lhuna's post, if I had revealed it just before deadline I would surely look like a wraith and it would take focus away from figuring out who of Eonwe and Shasta was the remaining wraith.
Well, if it's not you, and if you accept Lhuna and Nienna's reveals...
When you said this and I replied "I know, I know", I felt it was a complete give away. . . by only focusing on one of the last two "unknown" i felt that I had given away that I was considering a "known innocent".
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-13-2009, 04:38 AM
Why not? Or, to put it another way, why draw attention to it if you're a gifted?
Good question. I was kind of torn, because I did not want to go out and say "look at me, I am the Ranger", but catching wraiths was still top priority and I thought that I had found a way to do it. (and it was not all wrong, I guessed Sally on that basis)
Also there was a vauge hope that Nogrod would think "maybe he has a special role as well" and not vaste time on dreaming about me
Nerwen
05-13-2009, 05:42 AM
No I don't understand. . . Just because you make your claim first it does not mean that you are right.
Hence my original comment about "currently believing her... we'll see..." I was waiting to see if there'd be a counter-reveal.
But Rune, this is what you said after Lhuna's reveal (and before your internet connection went down– at least it was a long time before you showed up again):
So Lhuna is our Ranger. . .it is a shame that she has revealed her self, a ranger is very nice to have arround in the closing stages.
Now, you say you were afraid to counter-claim later... well, yes, quite rightly. Not because no-one ever believes a counter-claim, but because you had already accepted her claim, and in a completely unambiguous way.
Yes, of course we're going to lynch you now. :rolleyes:
If you turn out to be telling the truth, we'll know to lynch Lhuna tomorrow. Simple.
EDIT: punctuation and emphasis
Nerwen
05-13-2009, 05:50 AM
Good question. I was kind of torn, because I did not want to go out and say "look at me, I am the Ranger", but catching wraiths was still top priority and I thought that I had found a way to do it. (and it was not all wrong, I guessed Sally on that basis)
You did? When was that?
there was a vauge hope that Nogrod would think "maybe he has a special role as well" and not vaste time on dreaming about me
Errr... weren't you afraid the wraiths might think that too?
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-13-2009, 06:07 AM
indeed I accepted her claim at first, I was not sure if I was going to counter it yet.
it must have been on day 3 that I said that Sally and Brinn could be special roles.
And of course I was afraid of that, but that is always a problem with leaving hints, there is no way of telling who will pick up on it. I did however consider it most likely that Nogrod and Legate would think those thoughts and Legate's faith was sealed.
I know that it is simple and that no matter who is lynched the outcome will be the same, but I am sure that Lhuna will come out still claiming to be the ranger even though she is bound to loose. It is always more fun to stay alive to the end or go out in a magnificent way.
I cannot remember the last time I was survived a game with village victory, also it would hurt to see Lhuna's fraud getting me lynched.
--------------------------
OK, lets say I had counter claimed at once, what would the village have done?
My guess is that you would have used the whole day focusing on me and Lhuna, in the end you would lynch me and then Lhuna the next day.
By playing like I did, I have enabled my self to hand you the last wraith on a silver plate, now you have the chance to end this game without further loss of innocent lives.
Shastanis Althreduin
05-13-2009, 06:36 AM
++Rune
Going to collapse now. G'night. (at 7:36 AM)
Nerwen
05-13-2009, 06:39 AM
indeed I accepted her claim at first, I was not sure if I was going to counter it yet.
Well, didn't it occur to you that the way you were accepting it would make it well-nigh impossible to counter later?
must have been on day 3 that I said that Sally and Brinn could be special roles.
Rune, suggesting Sally might have an unspecified role is not equivalent to picking her as a wraith! (Other people already suspected her true role for in-game reasons, so, quite frankly, I don't see why you think your approach was so useful.)
, lets say I had counter claimed at once, what would the village have done?
My guess is that you would have used the whole day focusing on me and Lhuna, in the end you would lynch me and then Lhuna the next day.
Maybe, maybe not. Lhuna had been under heavy suspicion... why did you assume even a reasonable claim from you would be rejected in favour of hers?
EDIT: X'd with Shasta.
wilwarin538
05-13-2009, 06:53 AM
Well....I don't really have anything more to say, so I'll just vote now:
++Rune aka Tivo
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-13-2009, 06:55 AM
Well, didn't it occur to you that the way you were accepting it would make it well-nigh impossible to counter later?
I don't see why it would. . .I thought it was the best thing to do until I decided on what exactly to do.
Rune, suggesting Sally might have an unspecified role is not equivalent to picking her as a wraith! (Other people already suspected her true role for in-game reasons, so, quite frankly, I don't see why you think your approach was so useful.)
I did not say it was extremely useful, but that is not the point anyway. . .you are twisting the debate in another direction now. The point was that I would not have drawn atention to this had I been a wraith.
Maybe, maybe not. Lhuna had been under heavy suspicion... why did you assume even a reasonable claim from you would be rejected in favour of hers?
EDIT: X'd with Shasta.
Because that is how it normally goes. . . I did not want to do anything rash.
Anyways my only chance of survival is if Lhuna decides she does not want to play an extra day.
(I will be arround for another hour, then I have to leave my fathers office that he is currently letting me use. My internet might be up and running when I get home, but I cannot promise anything)
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-13-2009, 06:57 AM
Fair play. . . I am a dead Ranger :(
Nerwen
05-13-2009, 07:09 AM
Okay... then you did your bit by saving Shasta, and we'll lynch Lhuna toMorrow, like I said.:smokin:
Happy?
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-13-2009, 07:27 AM
I am not happy. . . I wanted to live!
I am content because we win, but the ending still sucks. (From my view)
Lhunardawen
05-13-2009, 07:53 AM
Anyways my only chance of survival is if Lhuna decides she does not want to play an extra day.
I love you, Rune. :)
++RUNE SON OF BJARNE
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-13-2009, 08:02 AM
++Lhuna
Nienna
05-13-2009, 08:17 AM
++ Rune
If you are in fact the Ranger you will have died knowing that you have sealed the victory for the village. Someone has to die today and your death will definitely tell us enough information to win the game.
Nerwen
05-13-2009, 09:33 AM
Nerwen doesn't really love me. :(
*grumblegrumbleLadyMacbethgrumble*
My darling, in the interests of research, I did this quiz (http://www.bbc.co.uk/drama/shakespeare/quiz.shtml)
and despite answering "no" to all the questions intended to elicit a preference for haggis, bagpipes and highland scenery... guess what result I got?:eek:
Rune Son of Bjarne
05-13-2009, 09:42 AM
++ Rune
If you are in fact the Ranger you will have died knowing that you have sealed the victory for the village. Someone has to die today and your death will definitely tell us enough information to win the game.
Of course I am the Ranger, it would make no sense for me to keep claiming it now that I have no chance of survival.
This is turning out to be a great day, I was just informed that we will not have internet for another 2 weeks.
wilwarin538
05-13-2009, 11:46 AM
Wow...there isn't really much else to say is there....
Except that the suspense is killing me. ;)
Nerwen
05-13-2009, 12:53 PM
Just to clear something up–
I did not say it was extremely useful, but that is not the point anyway. . .you are twisting the debate in another direction now.
No, I was questioning you for a purpose– i.e. finding whether or not you were trying to mislead us– with the idea that the people yet to vote could read it and make up their own minds.
Nerwen
05-13-2009, 12:55 PM
Wow...there isn't really much else to say is there....
Except that the suspense is killing me. ;)
Well, there's no reason now for Rune to maintain he's the Ranger if he's not... (except to screw with our heads, of course).
Thinlómien
05-13-2009, 02:01 PM
Deadline stop posting.
vBulletin® v3.8.9 Beta 4, Copyright ©2000-2025, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.