WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Eönwë]

Also, having gone through, a vote-list:

Night 1
Wolf Kill: None
Seer Dream: Unknown. Nerwen as innocent most likely.

Day 1
Votes:
Lottie ++Shasta [Seer]
Shasta [Seer] ++Pitch [Innocent]
Legate ++Lottie
Inzil ++Shasta [Seer] (2)
Glirdy [Ranger] ++Shasta [Seer] (3)
Skip ++Shasta [Seer] (4)
Pitch [Innocent] ++Shasta [Seer] (5)
Boro ++Nerwen
Greenie ++Shasta [Seer] (6)
Nog ++Shasta [Seer] (7)
Ozzy ++Legate
Wilwa ++Wilwa

Did not vote: Eonwe, Nerwen


Night 2
Wolf Kill: None. Ranger save. Again, most likely Nerwen

Day 2
Votes:
Legate ++Lottie <2>
Nerwen ++Pitch [Innocent]
Greenie ++Skip
Ozzy ++Pitch [Innocent] (2)
Wilwa ++Pitch [Innocent] (3)
Inzil ++Pitch [Innocent] (4)
Skip ++Legate
Pitch [Innocent] ++Lottie (2)
Boro ++Pitch [Innocent] (5)
Lottie ++Pitch [Innocent] (6)
Nog ++Lottie (3)
Eonwe ++Lottie (4)

Did not vote: Glirdy [Ranger]

Night 3
Wolf Kill: Glirdy [Ranger]


Key:
(x) - number of votes
<x> - a repeat vote (i.e. number of times the same person has voted for the same person)
{x} - A revenge vote (i.e. voting for someone who voted for you)
[role] - role
Italics - Dead

edit: fixed one mistake in votes.

[Nerwen]

Okay to spell it out, I felt that this might be an Inzil-wolf trying to make himself look useful but without actually taking the discussion forwards in any productive way. That you are a likely Seer dream should be obvious to all innocents and I don't see the point talking too much about it. In fact, I didn't even see the need to bring it up in the first place, not even when Pitch was still alive, even less so now.
That he could be a wolf being "helpful" is, as I said, quite possible– however, it is, as I also said, usual to speculate.

EDIT:X'd since skip.

[Eönwë]

why is it such an interesting question how the wolves picked Glirdy as the ranger. I don't think it was a coincidence (since they could've taken the safe choice and killed off the protected person last night) but still, even if we can identify his slip, does that make it easier to find the culprits? And if so, how is that?
Is that a confession? It's just that the wording there sounds quite certain that that's why the wolves chose him.



edit: fixed quote. Wow. My formatting is terrible toDay.

[Nogrod]

Finally got the home-PC open...

Just a short one here. I'll eat and then come back for the rest of the Day...

But looking at the wagon itself which practically sealed Shasta's fate, it was made by:

Glirdyranger (3rd vote)
Skip (4th vote)
Pitchinnocent (5th vote)A note, I just love it how I say something in the middle of Day 2 and somebody pulls it as a huge discovery sometime in the middle of Day 3... this is not the first time it happened. I am just saying this out of curiosity, as I have never experienced anything like this before, but in this game it happens all the time, I say something and somebody else pulls it out of the sleeve as an incredible discovery a long time after...So you knew it in the middle of D2 that Pitch was innocent... you knew that? :eek:

I don't know what do you want me to "respond", as you say, because I have nothing to respond. You didn't ask me anything.The choice of the word here was probably bad. I mean that while more and more people started discussing how important it would be to have a stance on the Shasta - Pitch issue you seemed to not even notice it - and whenm you did, you felt being quite roundabout with it - like not thinking it important - or just trying not to comment on it.

But on another note, after reading your post I'm caught thinking that there is something wrong in this whole episode (including the way I have been thinking about it). I need to think of all this again...

What you write is your opinion, and if you find what I said suspicious, then it's your problem, not mine:D

[A Little Green]

As usual in my analyses, I have not a) mentioned all his posts (eg. clarifications on stuff said before or otherwise stuff I have nothing to comment on) or b) full quotes of all the posts I quote. So, in short, I've gathered here what I found noteworthy in going through Skip's posts.

Day 1

56: Long IC and the following: Right then. Time to hunt some wolves.I'm always unnerved when people say that, but since innocents do it as much as wolves one can't really hold it against him..

57 (in full):
Well then, I've read the thread and all this cobbler-talk obviously stands out. Some of it strikes me as silly, and some of it strikes me as right sinister, as it is strictly theoretical at this point without any cobbler suspects and is therefore a distraction from more important business, that is, deciding on a name. I fear that what we are hearing are the treacherous tongues of Sauron.

Some other impressions.

Green is being captain obvious.

Nerwen is the one most determined to stay in character whatever that means...

Boro chides people for posting too long then promptly posts a long, rather pointless and somewhat irrational post that in many ways repeats things already stated more than once.

I also agree with Legate that Nogrod's reasoning seems a bit dull toDay. Is the old master-hunter losing his touch, or is he no longer himself. Hard to say...

As it stands I might vote Shasta toDay for reasons I'd rather not disclose at this point... But I'll vote closer to the DL...

A question to Legate. What makes you single out Wilwa as especially reasonable? Hmm. I don't like the manner of this. Of course it's almost impossible to have more than vague uneasinesses (not proper English probably but since I like the sound of that I had to write it..) on Day 1, but Skip's vagueness is fishy - he's very careful not to say he suspects the people he mentions but rather leaves it at "this might be a bit odd, or might not be..."

82 (in full): hm, have been getting phone-calls all night, uhm Osanwe Kenta calls I mean, and never really had time for a closer look at people... Would rather see Shasta than Lottie go though...
94 (in full):You know, I'm fine with ...

++Shasta Easy, though innocents did that too. Don't like the phrasing.

Day 2

124 (in full):Oh dear. Has the Power of the Lord of Waters withdrawn from the Great River that flows beside this accursed isle at last? We have slain the one who could've been most useful for all of us!

But onwards, forwards!

I gotta sleep now but two things I leave for you to discuss if you will.

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point. A mistake, obviously.

But Lottie, I think you should explain to us again why you found Shasta suspicious.

Another thing. I suppose that had Shasta dreamed an innocent the first Night we'd find no clues as to who that was. But if he did dream a wolf, wouldn't he have left something for us should he chance to die? And Shasta's main suspect seem to have been Pitch. Could he have dreamed of him?


Aurë entuluva!The first paragraph strikes me as false - but then again could be only IC so I wouldn't read too much into it. The latter part is what interests me more. He "leaves things to discuss" while he's away. His demand of explanation from Lottie is reasonable, though could also be read as a wolf sniffing an easy lynch-candidate. Especially when coupled with the second "thing to discuss", Pitchie as Shasta's possible dream. Now there's nothing wrong with that, but what worries me is the same I pointed out in his Day 1 post of impressions: he is careful not to say he himself suspects somebody, but rather encourages others to. I don't like it. Also, this post looks a bit like the wolves have plotted at Night that getting either Lottie or Pitch lynched, and Skip starts the work. I'm not convinced a Skippywolf would be so obvious though.

172: Answering a question about why he didn't see Shasta's Pitch-suspicion as a possible sign of Seerism if he considered Lottie's Shasta-suspicion as such.Why not? I suppose that although Shasta's accusation of Pitch also did seem weak (something almost unavoidable on a Day 1 unless a wolf makes a very foolish and blatant mistake I think), Lottie's motivation to attack Shasta was just plain ridiculous if she had honest intentions and as she, as we now know, isn't the Seer.

I mean, what in the name of Eru Illuvatar could been seen as suspicious in that? Not sure if a wolf would be so careless though... Not convinced by this reasoning, but that's about differing opinions and not about innocent/guilty.

192 (in full): But okay, you do have a point too. It's better to have some alternatives, more might be learned from that.

So as the votes are now piling up in Pitch I'll go for:

++Legate

he says a lot but isn't really helpful (that theoretic Cobbler-talk is a prime example) I - don't - like this. He was among the very first to point out the obvious scenario that Pitch was Shasta's dream - he left it for us to discuss at the very beginning of the Day - and yet he doesn't vote Pitch when the voting time comes but instead makes an odd vote for Legate. If he truly considered it was a real possibility Pitch was Shasta's dream, where did this vote come from? There is a reason, sure enough, but it doesn't look as convincing as "potential Seer-dreamed wolf". And we can't assume Skip disagreed with the "Pitch was dreamed of" -theory since he was among the first to bring that up.


Day 3

228 (in full; underlining mine):Man, this has been a very unfortunate start to the game. First the Seer, and with him he takes an innocent, and now our ranger! I'm not too happy about how Shasta singled out someone he didn't know the role of, that made Day 2 an all too easy ride for the wolves.

What Nogrod says pretty much mirrors my spontaneous thoughts of how things have played out.
With the lucky strike of the seer, who attacked Pitchie full frontal with odd reasons and got lynched on D1, the wolves must have "known" that Pitchie was the lynch of the Day yesterDay.

So first I thought I should find those who went for lynching Pitchie the strongest, but then I realised that at least smart wolves would like to stress the opposite, or at least try to downplay the scenario to look good afterwards.

So here's why I'm looking at you Legate...

For now I'm thinking Boro and Nerwen look good both for their attitude towards Pitchie - seeing the situation, making a case of it but at the same time taking the innocent's reservations - and their general reasonableness (Nerwen also because of the probable seer dream).
Agreed that the wolves would have had no need to push the lynching of Pitch. Nor would they stand out for participating in it, mind you. Seeing how our Seer had singled him out on Day 1, The noose was tightening around Pitch's neck pretty much from the start.

I also agree that Legate is beginning to look bad. Will review his actions now... A few things I dislike in this post. First off, the tone of the first paragraph doesn't look genuine. That could be just my imagination though so I'm not giving too much weight to that. The rest is, once again, more noteworthy. I'm especially concerned about the underlined part. It doesn't only look like latching onto Nog supporting the same suspicion he had yesterDay in a very fishy manner, but also I'm wondering how come Legate is only beginning to look bad - considering that Skip found him bad enough yesterDay to vote over someone he himself had pointed out as a possible Seer-dreamed wolf.

He then proceeds to analyse Legate (lost the post numbers, too lazy to check), this being his conclusion: Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!Again, understandable if he's innocent, clever if he's a wolf: backing off a little but being "still worried" leaves a nice open door both ways, depending on what others think of Legate.

236 (in full):Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..

ToDay he focusses on why Glirdan was targeted. Why is this so important to us now, Inzil? This strikes me as slightly odd. To me it looks more or less like he's describing the usual Inzil, who's always careful and slippery regardless of role, and again, he's raising slight doubts without openly suspecting. Talking about treading carefully...

237 (in full):Yeah but didn't pretty much everyone vote Shasta anyway? And I wouldn't discount those first couple of votes either. Especially since the circumstances around Lottie's vote really was what set the whole thing in motion.
I don't like this either, the way he offhandedly discards the validity of suspecting him based on his Shasta-vote because everyone did it anyway, and then goes off to turn the suspicion instead to Lottie and the other first voters (for voting Shasta).


And that's it. The early parts are the things that made me vote Skip yesterDay, only organised. I have to say he hasn't exactly improved since then. Quite the contrary, after looking through his posts he looks even fishier than before. The major things I have against him are a) his easy yet crucially placed bandwagon-vote for Shasta and the easy discarding of any possible suspiciousness therein; b) his pointing out Pitch being a possible dreamed wolf, yet still voting Legate for lynch with rather weaker reasons; and c) his general manner of encouraging others to suspect instead of openly suspecting himself.


EDIT: wow, x'ed since Nerwen's 245. This took longer than I thought..

[wilwarin538]

Now wilwa's reply to Boro didn't seem very cobblerish, but her vote was a bit weird (or the explanation of it, in the light of the current events). She really was basically like "let's start the bandwaggon!" I would like to hear more from her, like, what was going through your mind at that moment, wilwa? Can you somehow elaborate or re-explain it?

You mean my vote from yesterDay I assume? My vote yesterDay for Pitch was because I thought he was a likely Seer dream, and I felt if we didn't lynch him we would just end up wasting today talking about him some more. I regret he was innocent, but I feel it was a good decision since the Seer suspected him strongly, and we would certainly have just wasted toDay talking about him some more and likely would have just done it toDay, and if he had ended up guilty and we didn't lynch him, that would have been dumb.

So I finished Day 1, I will now take a short break and go through yesterDay and today, and then hopefully have a better feel for everyone. I hadn't been around a lot Day 1, and this was my first chance to go through it a lot, so I noticed some things that had gone right past me, and I think it'll end up changing my opinions on a few people.

I for the most part skipped taking notes on the dead, I’m focusing on the living here, and I didn’t concentrate on Nerwen, cause it seems clear she’s innocent, and don’t summarise my own posts or anything that I don’t think is significant. This is not a play by play of everything that was said, just what I think is important. + means I feel good about this post, - means I don't like, = means I’m iffy/neutral.

Leg #5: brings up Cobbler, calls the existence of one ‘unusual’, warns about false reveals. Was just stirring discussion. +

Inzil #6: we shouldn’t dismiss the Cobbler as a lersser threat, even if identifies +

Nog #7: points out seer can dream cobbler, so we shouldn’t be too concerned if they false reveal, we’ll know soon enough if they are lying. stresses that cobbler should not be main target as long as we have wolfy suspects. Cobbler not really threat til later in game. +

Leg # 10: a bit long winded, but basically says that if a false reveal happens the legit Gifted should be very discerning about whether or not to step forward =

Nog # 11: says: “The wolves will try to be nice and friendly. The innocents will be brutal and openly attacking people (hopefully).” which I find....odd. And I don’t like it, though it does apply to some people, it’s not a rule, and I don’t like that he stated it as such. –

Leg # 14: says cobbler should be ‘ignored, ignored, ignored’...meh, I don’t think the cobbler should take precedence over a wolf regarding lynch choices, but I wouldn’t say we should ignore them, they can be a threat in end game. –

Inzil #16: says basically that, that they are not our biggest threat, but it’s unwise to ignore them. +

Lottie #17: says that same thing again. + (goodness, I had forgotten just how much we talked about the cobbler, that’s surprising)

Lottie #26: vague list, of note: “Shasta: Evil wolfykins” then in #29 she brings up how she didn’t like the way he worded his post when he corrected me on the Hunter. She says this though: “Of course, when he's a wolf, I can never tell, so he's probably innocent anyway. Best I've got so far as far as suspicion goes, though.” –

Lottie #32: after calling him non-confrontational, calls him aggressive. Says her suspicion is almost solely gut feeling. –

Legate #35: points out Lottie-Shasta thing, considers W-on-W, but not really suspicious of either. Another big paragraph about the Cobbler. it’s all just so wishy-washy, back and forth, like he doesn’t want to take a side on anything. –

Greenie #39: says this “I find it amusing that people keep saying the wolves are our top priority, and yet the main topic of discussion is the cobbler.” Things perhaps the cobbler himself is helping to carry along the cobbler discussion. Gives a list of the possibilities of Shasta-Lottie, which are basically all of the possibilities: IL-IS, IL-WS, WL-IS or WL-WS. So I like the start of the post, but not the end. =

(yay, page 2! *dances*)

Nog #42: agrees with me that the Hunter should be quiet and not reveal, at all. +

Boro #43: basically reiterates everything that had been said about the Cobbler, and thinks we should look for the Cobbler while also looking for wolves, instead of just one or the other at a time. Says the speech on no stupid lynches (psychic). +

Ozban #44: points out strangeness of Greenie’s list (I agree), doesn’t want to make a big deal of Shasta-Legate thing, and says priority should be Wolves, go after Cobbler only if we have a good idea. I really like Ozzy, he must have played a similar game on another board, cause he seems to have skillz. +

Leg #45: makes actually a good point of how discussion of anything, even pointless ones about Cobblers, can be useful just for judging people’s reactions. Says Hunter should certainly not reveal, except maybe at end so we have known innocents, but even then probably not (I agree). Was wary of Shasta-Lottie. +
Inzil #50: says: “Individually, Lottie and Shasta seem to me to be their usual selves, but the interplay between them could be said to have had a bit of a companionlike feel.” notes Shasta’s odd suspicion of Pitch. +

Skip #56: big IC thing, and then wants to hunt wolves. Seems like a bit of a waste of time, considering he says he won’t be around a lot and there were things to talk about, but his IC thing was amusing. =

Lottie #57: votes Shasta, admits her suspicion is mostly feeling. = (did this bandwagon seriously start because of a ‘feeling’, hmm)

Boro #62: likes Oz and Pitch, neutral about Leg, doesn’t get why Greeni’s scenarios were weird (uhm, because they were a bit obvious, and didn’t seem to accomplish anything). =

Leg #63: still talking about the Cobbler –

Skip #64: says “green is being captain obvious”, says he’ll vote Shasta for reasons he doesn’t want to disclose. =

Greenie #68: seems fine with Lottie, and confused about Shasta’s vote. =

Inzil #71: says “Right now, the obvious choices toDay would seem to be Shasta and Lottie. I can't see both being wolves together, and it seems a bit too easy to have a wolf there. I'm going to look at other options, then.” +

Greenie #72: list, points out Leggy’s wishy-washy-ness, considers him as Cobbler (wow, that was actually becoming my thought as well). Guesses Lottie innocent, but yet would not be surprised if she’s Wolf with Shasta (later says no, cause of Lottie’s vote). Doesn’t trust Shasta, doesn’t really give much of a reason. Feels good or neutral about everyone else. =

Nog #77: mentions his ‘nice-wolfies’ theory again, which I still don’t agree with. –

Leg # 78: suspects Lottie more than Shasta, but doesn’t want to lynch her cause she was lynched early last game (votes Lottie two posts later) =

(yay, page 3 *dances*)

Inzil #81: wants to give Shasta benefit of the doubt, but no one else looks as bad. So he votes him. –

Skip # 82: rather see Shasta go over Lottie (later votes him) =

Nog #83: says could vote for pitch, Shasta, skip, me or inzil. (last three because he hasn’t formed much opinion on us) (ends up going with Shasta). =

Greenie #95: wants to vote Shasta (she does), feels his death could give info next day since most people talked about him, meh –

Boro #97: says he’ll go random (ends up choosing Nerwen), since he doesn’t like any of the other options, I actually approve of this +

Ozzy #107: votes Leg, says this: “Right now, the obvious choices toDay would seem to be Shasta and Lottie. I can't see both being wolves together, and it seems a bit too easy to have a wolf there. I'm going to look at other options, then.” I approve. +

Eonwe #110: doesn’t find Shasta suspicious, doesn’t like Boro’s vote, mentions cobbler discussion, says people seem to be aligning their opinion with the majority, I like this. +


There. Oh, and I didn't really proof read this much, so sorry for any spelling/grammar mistakes.

Now off to do Day 2.

x'ed with greenie, and maybe others, I'll get back to all those posts soon

[Nerwen]

Is that a confession? It's just that the wording there sounds quite certain that that's why the wolves chose him.
We-ell... I think it has been pretty generally accepted by now– though only because of that speculation and analysis which Skip himself finds questionable.

Thought: could his irritation at this be that of a wolf who knows perfectly well why they killed Glirdan, thank you very much, and so can't understand why we're even bothering to talk about it? It wouldn't be the first time wolves have failed to take into account the gap between what they know and what the villagers do.

That said, I'm not all that inclined to trust Zil, either.

EDIT:X'd since Steve.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A short and basic list of what I feel about people right now:

NOT CONCERNED ABOUT

Nerwen - I think she is the dreamed innocent. We will most likely see after toNight, anyway!

Greenie - I have really no reading about her at all, but nothing suspicious at least.

Nog - I tend to think he is an innocent totally out of his mind. Because he sounds like a genuine Nogrod who catches on totally wrong things (like his suspicion of me) and gets a sort of tunnel vision and does not let go...

UNSURE ABOUT

Ozban - some of his posts seem like genuinely innocent newbie thinking (like the one thing Nog corrected about Eönwë seeming innocent because of his vote), but at times I am just worried whether he is not making one huuuuge bluff. I'd just need to sense his true motives a bit better.

Skip - some of his posts have genuine feel to them, some less...

Wilwa - I don't know, she generally has innocent-looking posts and then she has some more guilty-looking stuff and I don't know...

Steve - there is still rather little from him. He does not seem worrying to me generally, this far, but I want to see more from him... he's similar to Greenie, simply she's been just around a bit longer, and I can get a better read of her (which is still nothing much, but at least makes me feel a bit like something about her, whereas about him, I can't say anything)

Inzil - bleagh. You know what, he is a bit unreadable. If I was to say names of three Wolves right now, then after Boro and Lottie he would be my third, but it's really nothing specific now.

SUSPICIOUS ABOUT

Boro - a bit. See my post above.
Lottie - see also above.


So you knew it in the middle of D2 that Pitch was innocent... you knew that? :eek:
Nogrod! Seriously! One more silly comment from you in this game and I am thinking you are a Cobbler yourself... or actually wait! Now that would finally make sense! Honestly, you are sometimes incredibly off in this game. Did you read what I was talking about up there? You have even the quote right above it! Nothing about Pitch, but your words about Glirdy and Skip's votes being in the suspicious place (you seemed to pull it as an incredibly discovery that they, being in the middle, were the most suspicious, whereas I said that in the middle of Day 2). That's nothing to say about what I think now about them (since Glirdy's been obviously innocent). But anyway...

EDIT: x-ed with wilwa and Nerwen.

[skip spence]

Is that a confession? It's just that the wording there sounds quite certain that that's why the wolves chose him.
Oh come on!

Hm.

List of people I'd consider voting:
Lottie - Not liking her from Day One, and not liking her vote on me. I was one of the people to get a vote yesterDay and her vote on me toDay seems like an opportunistic way of starting another bandwagon to lynch an innocent. Would hate to see her lynched if she turns out innocent though, which is certainly a possibility.
Legate - Not a likely fellow of Lottie. I'm torn about him, but leaning towards guilty.
Inziladun - As I said, he seems very very careful. And the wolves have had little reason to take chances so far, it seems.

Would also consider Green or Steve considering what's come up lately, but we'll see about that.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

wilwa's explanation seems fair enough to me, sort of calms my feeling about her now. And btw a note to my list, I just realised I really wrote very little there... planned to write more into the mid-section especially, but like I said, it's really "short" overview... more like on making it clear for myself. (And it can serve you for easy orientation also when you read it if I am dead later and you are reviewing my posts, so that you can see what I thought of whom.)

EDIT: x-ed with skippy.

[A Little Green]

Skip, since you seem to be around: why did you vote Legate instead of Pitch yesterDay even though you had pointed Pitch out as a possible Seer-dreamed wolf?

[skip spence]

Well, Greenie, your points against me are terribly subjective and vague on the whole. It's sounds like you'd already made up your mind about the outcome of your analysis before even getting started. I mean, these are just a few examples of your "arguments":

A
56: Long IC and the following: I'm always unnerved when people say that, but since innocents do it as much as wolves one can't really hold it against him..
...
Hmm. I don't like the manner of this. Of course it's almost impossible to have more than vague uneasinesses...

...don't like the phrasing.

...the first paragraph strikes me as false - but then again could be only IC so I wouldn't read too much into it.

...Not convinced by this reasoning, but that's about differing opinions and not about innocent/guilty.

...the tone of the first paragraph doesn't look genuine. That could be just my imagination though so I'm not giving too much weight to that.

...Again, understandable if he's innocent, clever if he's a wolf: backing off a little but being "still worried"

This seems worth replying to though:

192 (in full): I - don't - like this. He was among the very first to point out the obvious scenario that Pitch was Shasta's dream - he left it for us to discuss at the very beginning of the Day - and yet he doesn't vote Pitch when the voting time comes but instead makes an odd vote for Legate. If he truly considered it was a real possibility Pitch was Shasta's dream, where did this vote come from? There is a reason, sure enough, but it doesn't look as convincing as "potential Seer-dreamed wolf". And we can't assume Skip disagreed with the "Pitch was dreamed of" -theory since he was among the first to bring that up.
I, much like all others it seems (bar the Wolves) though that Shasta could've dreamed Pitch, that this was a likely scenario. There are however three wolves out there still and as I also found Legate suspicious I felt another alternative could be wise to bring forwards, especially since the catastrophe of the Day 1 bandwagon. And the vote wasn't a throwaway, there was still enough people left to vote to change the outcome... In retrospect it would've been nice to have seen a closer voting too, wouldn't you say?

Edit: xed with Legate and Greenie whose question I've already answered.

[skip spence]

So, what's the vote-tally?

Okay, lazy I know;

Lottie -> skip
Boro -> Eonwe

That's it? :O

[Nerwen]

Hmmn. At the moment the problem for me is that everyone I suspect also suspects each other, whch makes it sort of hard to untangle...

I think I will vote
++Skip

Though bear in mind that Lottie has already voted him. and she's quite the dubious character herself. Let's not have everyone pile on one person again, shall we?:rolleyes:

I regret that I haven't been able to be around more on what I assume will be my last Day– I mean the wolves would be crazy not to come after me now– but that's how things fell out.

Good luck!

EDIT:X'd with Skip

[Nogrod]

Okay, back in the game with belly full...

you are sometimes incredibly off in this game. Did you read what I was talking about up there? You have even the quote right above it! Nothing about Pitch, but your words about Glirdy and Skip's votes being in the suspicious placeI was only looking at the thing you quoted from my post - which basically had the knowledge of Glirdyranger and Pitchocent; as that was the point of my post: that two of the most suspicious three were innocents!

Okay, 'nuff of that. I need to try and re-organise my thoughts.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A few notes still before the voting fray begins...

I have been looking at the list of votes people cast in both Days (thanks, Steve!!) and also noticed one thing - it's a question I am placing in front of the villagers, because I don't know an answer to it, myself:

Day 1, as we all know, was a basically all-over bandwaggon for Shasta. Only a few have voted otherwise, and one of them was Boro, who voted Nerwen. If I am right - as I assume that Nerwen is innocent, because of Seer's dream being probably her and also Glirdy talking about her the way he did - then Nerwen was in fact supposed to die that Night. So, what does that say about Boro? Would he be a Wolf? Imagining his thinking now if he was one: "We want to attack Nerwen toNight. I voted Nerwen today." What is between these two sentences? A worried "but"? Or "because"? Or "who cares"? Like, how would a Borowolf think? And related to this, would he do this, then? Because if Boro wouldn't do something like that (a thing I would think default for most Wolves, but maybe they had better arguments for otherwise), then it would make it more likely that he's innocent...
(I hope you are able to follow what I have in mind in this one.)

[Nerwen]

Tally:
Lottie --> Skip
Boro --> Eönwë
Nerwen --> Skip 2

So I just put you in the lead, Skip. Really not sure about you, though.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I was only looking at the thing you quoted from my post - which basically had the knowledge of Glirdyranger and Pitchocent; as that was the point of my post: that two of the most suspicious three were innocents!

Okay, in that case I have probably misread it too. Although it seemed to me that your point in the post was very largely about these three being in the suspicious place as in contrary to some people in the 7th or whatever place, something you've been kind of dementing by pointing out that it was these three, and not the 7th votes, who were suspicious... but okay, whatever, let's forget it...

[skip spence]

Ouch Nerwen, did not expect that!

Now maybe it's time after all to try Lottie. Actually, I'd be fine with Steve too - and yes, saving myslef is part of my reasoning. He's a submarine more or less but has done nothing to make me feel good about him

[Inziladun]

Gah, between sleep and RL this is the first chance I've had to look at this in quite a while. *hurries to try and catch up*

[Ozban]

This is called Silence before the storm...:p

[A Little Green]

Well, Greenie, your points against me are terribly subjective and vague on the whole. It's sounds like you'd already made up your mind about the outcome of your analysis before even getting started. I mean, these are just a few examples of your "arguments": The lines you quoted are mostly the exact parts in my analysis that are not arguments, and taken out of context.

I, much like all others it seems (bar the Wolves) though that Shasta could've dreamed Pitch, that this was a likely scenario. There are however three wolves out there still and as I also found Legate suspicious I felt another alternative could be wise to bring forwards, especially since the catastrophe of the Day 1 bandwagon. And the vote wasn't a throwaway, there was still enough people left to vote to change the outcome... In retrospect it would've been nice to have seen a closer voting too, wouldn't you say?This does not make sense. Why is it especially wise to bring up a new alternative if one of the already existing candidates is, quoting you, "likely" dreamed by the Seer as wolf - especially as the lynch was not quite certain yet? If you thought both Pitch and Legate were suspicious, you wouldn't worry about Pitch getting lynched.


EDIT: x-ed since Legate 180 - no sorry, 266 :D

[Nogrod]

Skip and Lottie come to my mind first.

Skip: I just can't believe the Shasta-wagon was totally innocent-built (well it could be, but really). Also I think Greenie had a few points of which especially the one that Skip said toDay that Legate is beginning to look suspiciopus - while he himself thought him the most suspicious yesterDay as much as to vote him instead of Pitchie or any other "argued for" candidate... So the short memory of the one who needs to lie?

Lottie: her explanation that she tried to pull out a seer-impression on D1 looks pretty dubious. Also her vote yesterDay for Pitchie while first driving for other solutions - and in the votepost suspecting Skip the most...

Others... well, a moment.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Funny. I am beginning to toy with the idea to join the bandwaggon for skip. I mean, look! Everybody had the possibility to have fun by joining some bandwaggon already, now I finally have the chance too, why not to use it? ;) Okay, such things should not be joked about after the last two Days, but...

The point is basically, otherwise I could vote Lottie again (I don't feel so strongly about Boro yet and anyway, I am not sure if there would be a chance to lynch him). I still think she is guilty and that hasn't changed - of all people, I have the most sound suspicion for her. But if there was no way to lynch her and the main decision of toDay was between somebody else, then I could vote skip. He is one of the half-suspects of mine, and I have been thinking about many things Greenie pointed out against him - I could agree with much of it. The problem is more like that still some of his posts seemed more genuine to me. His last explanation about his yesterDay's vote didn't seem as good to me.

I will probably wait and see... or what, are other people considering Lottie? Anybody?

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Eönwë]

Well, a few thoughts:

Positive:

Nerwen- Willing to accept her as innocent for now.

Wilwa- Seems genuine, and I seem to agree with quite a lot she has to say.

Legate- Looks much better in my eyes after his last post. He raises some interesting points and . On the other hand, he could be a wolf giving away some of last Night's thoughts in order to make himself look good, though this seems less likely to me.

Nogrod- He's finally gone back to normal-Nogrod-mode, so I feel better about him now.

Not sure:

Ozzy- Well, he seems generally alright, but I can't get a read on him at all.

Worried about:

Lottie- I found her very suspicious yesterDay, but now I'm not so sure. I need to reread her posts to see why I found her so evil.

Skip- Worries me. Sometimes he seems so innocent, while at others he seems almost certainly evil.

Inzil- Slippery, and more than usual. He makes sense, but he just worries me.

Boro- Not acting how I remember innocent-Boro. And more importantly, how is he third on the post count when nothing he's said has really stood out.


edit: x-ed since Wilwa's long post.

[skip spence]

This does not make sense. Why is it especially wise to bring up a new alternative if one of the already existing candidates is, quoting you, "likely" dreamed by the Seer as wolf - especially as the lynch was not quite certain yet? If you thought both Pitch and Legate were suspicious, you wouldn't worry about Pitch getting lynched.

Well now, would you have preferred that everyone voted Pitch? Because everyone (bar the wolves) must have considered Pitch a likely Seer dream (still haven't forgiven Shasta for that). Notice that likely doesn't translate to certain.

[Ozban]

Funny. I am beginning to toy with the idea to join the bandwaggon for skip. I mean, look! Everybody had the possibility to have fun by joining some bandwaggon already, now I finally have the chance too, why not to use it? ;) Okay, such things should not be joked about after the last two Days, but...


Hilarious :D But joining in crossed my mind too.

I have other options though, especially you!

[Nogrod]

Too late to make any big posts trying to consider everyone... But you can find my thoughts from the megapost I did earlier toDay.

So I'd be inclined to vote for Skip or Lottie - for the reasons stated in my earlier post.

[A Little Green]

Well now, would you have preferred that everyone voted Pitch? Because everyone (bar the wolves) must have considered Pitch a likely Seer dream (still haven't forgiven Shasta for that). Notice that likely doesn't translate to certain.Surely not, but I still don't get your reasoning. I have no preference about whether everyone should have voted Pitch or not, but I have concerns about your conduct concerning that affair and your explanation didn't help.

++ Skip

For reasons, check the analysis post.

[Ozban]

+ + Legate

Can't help myself, but to find him treacherous. I have repeated my reasons several times. So I'll refrain from doing it again.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Legate- Looks much better in my eyes after his last post. He raises some interesting points and .
Oh, thanks, even though I don't know what is the other part of why you think of me better :D

I have other options though, especially you!

And thanks too! ;)

But now! Actually if there are more people willing to vote Lottie, perhaps we can at last make it a competition? And if one of these two is innocent and anotehr is not, at least the voting could tell us something?

EDIT: Xed with two votes

[skip spence]

So if we lynch Lottie and she is innocent. what do we learn. Nothing.

She is guilty. Great, then Legate is probably innocent.

We lynch Legate and he is innocent. Could potentially teach us something but very bad still.

He's guilty. Great, then Lottie is probably okay.

[Nogrod]

I thought of bringing Lottie to the mix... Are there enough votes to make it a sensible idea?

Lottie --> Skip
Boro --> Eönwë
Nerwen --> Skip 2
Greeniw --> Skip 3
Ozban --> Legate

Edit: X'd with the few latest

[skip spence]

I guees I'd have to go with

++Legate

And Inzil, you have good reasons not to vote me regardless of your role!

[wilwarin538]

Day 2

Leg #118: says my random vote is better than Ozban’s. Which I must say is silly, my vote was for myself, a total throwaway, whil Oz actually had a legitimate suspicion for Legate. And I find it funny that Leg calls him ‘alibistic’, which is exactly what Ozzy had called him. Not comfortable with Noggins. –

Ozzy #120: says he would rather vote for who he suspects over voting with the crowd, I likey. + (I really like this kid, he amuses me)

Boro #123: quotes Shasta’s posts, and thinks that PitchWolf was the likely dream. It was a logical conclusion. +

Skip #124: explains that he felt Lottie could have been the Seer and had dreamt of ShastaWolf, also agrees Pitch could have been the dream. The Lottie Seer thing is odd, but I suppose I see where he was coming from . =

Nog #125: didn’t like Boro’s vote at all, and doesn’t really thing the Shasta lynch was ‘random’ as Legate had said. =

Leg #127: long detailed list, fine with Greenie, finds it odd that Lottie hadn’t received more votes than Shasta, uncomfortable with Nog, ok-ish with Pitch, thinks Skip is ‘lost in the crowd’, suspicious of Glirdypie, iffy about Inzil, questionmark Boro, fine with moi, not sure about Eonwe. What really stand out about this post is what he says about Ozzy: “Of Ozban I spoke above basically in my previous post... I think he has generally sort of good style, it just remains to be seen whether he is hiding fur behind some mask or not.” Uhm, what? I dislike this, it sounds weird, the whole ‘it remains to be seen’, cause that seems like it would apply to everyone. Just odd. –

Nog #129: doesn’t like that Legate seems to be saying that Shasta wasn’t at all suspicious, wants to hear more from Lottie. =

Leg # 130: says how hard it is to analys the votes, since they were mostly all for the same person (agreed). Says again that Lottie was more suspicious, hence his confusion over Shasta being the lynch (agreed). Thinks dream was either WolfPitch or OrdoNerwen. +

Inzil #134: agrees that Pitch could have been the dream +

Lottie #135: this: “First off - what the hey? What was that? That bandwagon has got to be one of the silliest bandwagons I've seen in a long time (and the fact that I've seen sillier is just sad. ). And by 'that bandwagon', I mostly mean the...five, was it, people who voted close to each other, towards the end. Did you guys see no problems in this situation?” and this: “Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer. Yeah. That went well. Now pardon me while I go head-desk for a few minutes...”. I feel like giving her 3 negatives for all that. - - -

Boro #139: describes his feelings about the bandwagon, and the reasoning for his random vote = frustration (ditto for me). Thinks perhaps a PitchWolf dream would be too obvious. +

(eek, only 38 minutes left til DL, going to speed this up a bit, and likely be a bit vague for stuff)

Inzil #142: also agrees about dream maybe being of Pitch +

Lottie #144: makes list, doesn’t trust Pitch, Nog, Legate and Ozzy, and in 146 says that Pitch isn’t suspicious on his own, the possibility of him being dreamed is the only reason to vote him. =

Legate #150: post about Lottie, that I agreed with quite a bit, made some good arguments against her. (votes her right after) +

Ozzy #154: suspicious of Lottie and Legate, thinks Nerwen the more likely dream, didn’t like Skip’s vote, feels good about Steve. (poem in 155, interesting) +

Boro #156: talks about Ranger save, more about bandwagon, accuses me of Cobblery because of my self-vote. =

Boro #160: note going to vote Leg, Lottie, Nerwen, Greenie, suspects Nog and I of Cobblery, and then lists everyone else as “The rest of the bunch who are neither coming off as people I would not want to vote for nor the cobbler, and thus possible wolves who I may cast a vote for...” =

(page 5, yaya!!!)

Lottie #161: defends her vote, still don’t like her reasoning –

Greenie #162: votes Skip, because of his ‘opportunistic’ Shasta vote =

Ozzy #164: votes Pitch +

Nog #165: talks about the wagon, thinks Glidy, Skip and Pitch’s votes look the worst =

Nog #168: debating about Pitch being the dream, seems very unsure (and today called me wavering, did he? how interesting) –

Eonwe #180: defends his vote, and says that the Ranger save didn’t make up for losing our Seer, I get his point, though I don’t totally agree. +

Nog #184: still suspicious of Glirdy and in 187 still unsure about whether or not to go for Pitch =

Inzil #188: votes Pitch, good reasoning. +

Skip #192: goes for Legate, so there are alternatives =

Boro #199: goes for Pitch, I don’t understand what he said before his vote, I *think* he was agreeing with me, but for some reasoning the wording makes no sense to me =

Eonwe #200: says Pitch lynch would make sense, and even if he’s innocent then atleast we could feel good about nerwen +

Lottie votes for Pitch, Nog votes for Lottie, Steve for Lottie

And I’ll just stop there, I don’t have enough time to go through today in that detail, I’m afraid.


Results? (taking into account the total +/=/- I gave to their posts, and my ultimate opinion on them)

Legate: 4 +, 1 =, 5 -.....I don't like. He's very wishy-washy, seems to go back in forth with his opinions, and just maybe wants to seem more useful then he is and wants to keep everyone happy. I'm leaning that he could be the Cobbler, but I'm suspicious enough of him to vote him.

Noggins: 2 +, 5 =, 3 -.....so I feel mostly good about him, in an iffy sorta way. It's like I want to trust him, but something just seems off.

Inzil: 7 +. I like Inzil. He's logical, and seems very honest to me.

Lottie: 1 +, 2 =, 6 -.....really not trusting Lottiepop, biggest reason being her reaction on Day 2 about the Shasta bangwaggon, getting all upset that we all voted the same as her, and then trying to say it was cause she was trying to make the wolves think she was the Seer. Didn't like any of that at all.

Skip: 4 =, I'm really unsure about him, som things I don't like, some things I do.

Steve: 3 +, hasn't posted too much, but what I've seen I've liked.

Ozzy: 5 +, I want him to be my new best friend (no offense Glirdypie ;) ). He's really cool, and I like how direct he is.

Greenie: 4 =, 1 -. Mostly neutral about her.

Boro: 3=, 4 +. Feel fairly good about him, mostly cause I agree with him on practically everything.

So right now, if I had to guess who our wolves are I would go with Legate and Lottie, and if I had to choose a third that would be Nog. I think I'm gonna vote either Legate or Lottie though.

x'ed with a bunch, and only I only have 2 minutes!!! *panics*

[Ozban]

Time's running out, lightning was seen, thunder's to be heard any moment.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nog, I think we can at least try. And if skip is Wolf and WWs want to save him, we'll give them the chance! By which they could be caught later...

Ok, but now probably x-ed... okay I see now... whatever...

[Nogrod]

Jesus wilwa!

You should be lynched for that!

[wilwarin538]

++ Legate

For previously stated reasons.

[Nogrod]

++ Lottie

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

++skip

Just in case somebody wanted to vote ME still. :rolleyes: I guess the lottie-plan should've started a bit earlier... again we are at bandwagon... but let's see what happesn...

EDIT: x-ed with wilwas and nogs and whatnot, and I see I've possibly done well to vote like I did...

[Ozban]

zzy #120: says he would rather vote for who he suspects over voting with the crowd, I likey. + (I really like this kid, he amuses me)


Kid? you are about 4 months older than me!! :D

[Eönwë]

Definitely not liking Lottie.

Just reread Day 1.

On her second post she suddenly (jokingly?) suspects Shasta, and then suddenly gets more serious about it in her next post, with the very wolvish "here is some evidence for why he could be evil, but I'm probably wrong, but still, look at this evidence" sort of approach. The classic trying-to-start-other-people-suspecting-someone tactic. And then votes him after a few posts, with not much more reasoning.

edit: x-ed with page.

[Eönwë]

So
++Lottie

again.

edit: didn't get a chance to read any other posts since the last, so basically another x with the page.

[Thinlómien]

Deadline, stop posting. Skip has been lynched unless I miscounted . Narration up as soon as I get it written.

[Inziladun]

A lot to digest in a short period of time. My apologies.

++Legate

[Nogrod]

A bit different one this time... :rolleyes:

[wilwarin538]

Jesus wilwa!

You should be lynched for that!

What? I wasn't going to put an hour into something and not post it.

x'ed with a bunch, wow, that was nuts...

[Eönwë]

Well it seems like that didn't happen then.

edit: x-ed with Modess, etc.

[Thinlómien]

Alright, since Zil xed with me and his vote does count, it's a tie. This means, I'm going to flip a coin and you're going to have even more suspense for the next 25-40 minutes... ;)

[Thinlómien]

Alright, Agan pointed out to me that I should tell you right now who died. So it's Legate, thanks to my choosing Agan's left hand. Off to write the narration...

[Thinlómien]

When the third day in the pit came closer to an end, the Elves had not reached an agreement.
"We want to lynch Skip," Loslote, Nerwen, Green and Legate said.
"We want to lynch Legate," Ozban, Skip, Wilwarin and Inziladun said.
Both parties were relentless, and the rest thought the conflict stupid because they wanted someone else entirely to die. No one listened to them.

"Well then if you can't reach a conclusion, why not let fate decide?" asked Boromir, one of those who took neither side.
"That would be the fairest," Nogrod said quickly, himself staying out of the quarrel as well.
"I say we have them arm-wrestle. That will tell us enough," said Eönwë with a cunning look on his face.

Not having better propositions, the crowd agreed. Skip and Legate sat down, locked their hands and started arm-wrestling. Neither of them wanted to die, and both of them were experinced as hunters and thus not light of arm. But in the end Legate beat Skip: after all, the jeweller was by profession also a smith and thus his arms were used to hard work, but Skip used most of his days just writing sonnets to his beautiful Lady Finduilas.

Eönwë smiled. "So let us kill Legate then."
"What?!" shouted Legate, Green, Nerwen and Loslote in a chorus.
"Yes," said Eönwë. "You saw what happened to Glirdan last night. These foul beings have incredible strength. Thus, one of them would be strong."
"I think that makes sense," Boromir agreed and the ones who had wanted to see Legate dead agreed eagerly.
"So let us kill Legate," said Nogrod, who tended to end up as a judge.

Legate wasn't very surprised when he heard his companions wanted to kill him. It seemed fitting to die in the darkness, to die of the darkness. Legate had never imagined he could survive days in a place like the pit, after all, one thing he cherised above many others was the pure white light.

"So I would die where our Seer died. Take me to the pit," he said.
"Not a werewolf with our brave hero!" Ozban protested, but Nerwen gave him such a sour look that he quit complaining.
"Isn't it enough he dies?" Loslote asked, irritated.

They took Legate there, and Skip and Wilwarin grabbed his shoulders.
"Any last words?" asked Inziladun.
"Only this," said Legate. "Here it's darkness, darkness, darkness. Always the darkness, not even the briefest period of light, just the hours of slightly lesser darkness where you can see vague shapes if you really try. It's difficult to see anything clearly in the dark, and thus I forgive you."
"I see," said Nogrod.
"I think that's enough," said Boromir.
"Let him go," said Eönwë, and Wilwarin and Skip pushed Legate over the side.

Long he fell and he cried when he hit the bottom of the pit. There wasn't the slightest echo of wolvish howl to his death cry.

~*~

The Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - murdered in cold blood on Night1
Shastanis (seer) - cast to the pit in the pit on Day1
Pitch (ordo) - driven crazy and throttled in his fur scarf on Day2
Glirdan (ranger) - decapitated by a wolf's paw on Night3
Legate (ordo) - fell to the pit on Day3

The Living
Green - veteran hunter with a striking resemblance to an opossum
Boromir - incompetent gatewarden
Eönwë - hunter
Inziladun - weaponsmith
Loslote - young tag-along girl with frizzy hair
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter who makes animal statues of wood and likes the colour green
Nogrod - narcoleptic master-hunter
Ozban - young and naive hunter and admirer of Finrod Felagund
Skip - an admirer of Finduilas's
Wilwarin - hunter


Night4 has started. You all know what to do.

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen had never been one to have vivid and elaborate dreams. Mostly she woke up remembering nothing of her dreams and the dreams she remembered were simple: she had dreamt of skinning a rabbit, or of climbing a tree and seeing the beautiful green light in the leaves. But this place had changed everything, now she dreamt every night, of weird things and frightening things, and she remembered it all in the morning.

Tonight, Nerwen was walking in a hall filled with gigantic wooden statues, just like the figurines she tended to carve when she had free time, only a hundred times bigger. She could recognise the swan she had carved for her nephew, the bear she kept on her windowsill and the eagle that she had brought to her father's grave one night. She didn't know what they were doing here, for it seemed to her as if she still walked somewhere in the fortress of Tol-in-Gaurhoth.

On the Isle of Werewolves there must be a wolf... she thought and her eyes indeed found a massive wolf of beechwood poised as if ready to jump at its prey. She started walking towards it, not knowing why. She stood at the foot of the statue and looked up. The wolf looked almost benevolent, or at least there was a smile playing on its face. As she watched, the wolf statue started falling towards her, as inevitable as death...

...and she woke up to a second of relief before heavy paws landed on her chest and jaws closed around her neck. There was a rush of pain more terrible than she had ever experienced, and then everything was gone.

In the morning, the Elves found Nerwen's body torn in pieces.


~*~


The Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - murdered in cold blood on Night1
Shastanis (seer) - cast to the pit in the pit on Day1
Pitch (ordo) - driven crazy and throttled in his fur scarf on Day2
Glirdan (ranger) - decapitated by a wolf's paw on Night3
Legate (ordo) - fell to the pit on Day3
Nerwen (ordo) - killed in a nightmare come true on Night4

The Living
Green - veteran hunter with a striking resemblance to an opossum
Boromir - incompetent gatewarden
Eönwë - hunter
Inziladun - weaponsmith
Loslote - young tag-along girl with frizzy hair
Nogrod - narcoleptic master-hunter
Ozban - young and naive hunter and admirer of Finrod Felagund
Skip - an admirer of Finduilas's
Wilwarin - hunter


Day4 has now begun. Talk. Hunter hunt. Wolves no private talk. And so on. Good luck to both teams! ;)

[skip spence]

*sigh*

This isle truly is accursed! And the Doom of Mandos keeps haunting us until the end of time! Was really hoping that Legate was guilty, but after the DL had passed and it was revealed that I’d live I immediately got the feeling we’d lynch another innocent. It’s just been that kind of game. Don’t I wish I tried with Lottie instead!

But seriously people, we need to hit a wolf today, or at the very least, the cobbler. If we don’t, we’re as good as dead. And yes, I am the Hunter. Felt I had to reveal and put the fear of death in Inziladun in order to save my own life over an unknown I believed could be a wolf (my pick was actually Legate *double-sigh*)

It both worked and misfired, because while it did save my life (as it seems) it also cost another innocent's life. I now almost feel it’s a shame I wasn’t the one who died, because I understand that you can’t trust my words just like that, and with Legate a proven innocent, I fear that I might seem the obvious lynch today (though in actuality there no good reason why it should be so). But really, if you lynch me, the baddies are 4 against 3 toMorrow and the wolves win the game, it’s that simple. And I urge you, be wary of any who pushes the idea of lynching me. The wolves are at the verge of victory and will be eager for closure.

I do have another reason to reveal too, apart from saving my life, and that is one I feel should come out into the open given how this game has developed.

[skip spence]

First, a few additional comments on Greenie's case against me now that I've time to reply to them (I wrote this ahead of the DL), and then, well maybe simultaneously, I believe I'll return the favour and have a look at her too.

First of all, she suspects me for jumping on the bandwagon to lynch Shasta. I gave him his forth vote after having expressed the intention to vote for him much earlier. It seemed logical at the time.

But isn't it ironic, in the light of this accusation, that Green's record that Day is almost identical to mine?

First she singles Shasta out as her main suspect:
Shasta - Don't trust him at the moment. I'd love to hear from him before having to vote, but since he has already voted I doubt he'll return. I feel worse about him than about anyone else in the village, but then again I'm doubtful whether - just in principle - it is possible to catch a psychic Shastawolf on Day 1... In short, my head is exploding with scenarios and I'm sure it's unhealthy.

Then she votes him shortly after I did:
Not that it makes any difference now..

++ Shasta

Because of what I've said before, don't have the time or energy to repeat everything.

Then comes an accusation that I stirred up suspicion and left others to do the dirty work on Day 2, after I asked Lottie why she suspected Shasta in the first place (which I still find very odd) and raised the possibility that Pitch was a dreamed of wolf.
He "leaves things to discuss" while he's away. His demand of explanation from Lottie is reasonable, though could also be read as a wolf sniffing an easy lynch-candidate. Especially when coupled with the second "thing to discuss", Pitchie as Shasta's possible dream. Now there's nothing wrong with that, but what worries me is the same I pointed out in his Day 1 post of impressions: he is careful not to say he himself suspects somebody, but rather encourages others to
Well, first of all, when I wrote that post it was early Day 2 and bedtime, and as I work I knew I'd have no chance of participating again until the last couple of hours of that Day. What can I do but leave it for others to carry on?

Secondly, you agree that asking Lottie for an explanation was reasonable. And that Pitch potentially looked as a dreamed of wolf was universally agreed upon (even Pitch himself knew it looked bad for him, poor thing!) though I may have been one of the first to raise the possibility...

Now this strikes me as plain silly:
I'm wondering how come Legate is only beginning to look bad - considering that Skip found him bad enough yesterDay to vote over someone he himself had pointed out as a possible Seer-dreamed wolf.
I said he is beginning to look bad. That doesn't mean that he, at that very moment, just started to look bad, and that he didn't minutes earlier. Like, if you observe a cyclist on the Tour de France, you don't describe him as beginning to look tired, the first instance he grins badly. You say that when he's been showing signs of weariness for some time, perhaps losing a few metres on the peloton, apparently struggling to keep up... I was perfectly aware that I voted Legate the previous Day, and you, Miss Green, are splitting hairs!

Then she blames me for finding Inzil suspicious...
Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..

This strikes me as slightly odd. To me it looks more or less like he's describing the usual Inzil, who's always careful and slippery regardless of role, and again, he's raising slight doubts without openly suspecting. Talking about treading carefully...
Once again a case of double standards... Remember, she herself accuses me of the very same thing that I accuse Inzil of, that is: raising slight doubts without openly accusing (though I'd argue that Inzil have been more careful than I have and making subtle distractions as well)...:(

And it's once again ironic how she first chides me for joining in on the bandwagon to lynch innocent Shasta (she did the same) and then for not joining the bandwagon to lynch innocent Pitch (once again, she did the same, voting me and not Pitch). Takes one to know one, one might argue...

I also find it odd that I apparently is the only one Greenie suspects based on this very brittle case, and with the personal knowledge that I am in fact innocent. Odd if we imagine a small and cute and honest Green, trying to save the hunters from this horrid dungeon. More understandable if she's a wolf smelling blood, becoming bolder, more aggressive and going for an easy lynch to finish us off once and for all. Then again, since I suspected Legate (and ended up voting him, arguably causing his death) and he turned out innocent, her aggressive attack on me could look unnecessary. Then again, she could have felt that Lottie risked getting lynched, and that attacking me was a good way of avoiding that. That makes a lot of sense actually: Lottie and Green as fellows.

In that 'it could be this it could be that or it could be something in between' post of hers, she actually defended Lottie in a subtle way, especially in light of Shasta's now proved innocence.

Notice how she downplays the a) scenario: a lupine Lottie attacking innocent Shasta...

a) Lottiewolf relying on "gut-feeling" to justify easy suspicion on an innocent Shasta. I don't find this that likely, though it's definitely a possibility. Lottie's tone is quite genuine, and if she's a wolf I'd be more inclined to think Shasta is one too (= option d)).
b) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on a Shastawolf. Definitely possible.
c) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on an innocent Shasta. Definitely possible.
d) Lottiewolf and Shastawolf mess around with a neat Day 1 wolf-on-wolf show. Certainly wouldn't put it past the two of them.

[Boromir88]

Well, as much as I was agreeing with Wilwa earlier about how the hunter's purpose is taken away when being revealed, I was going to throw out today that we may have no choice but to have our hunter known. So, I can certainly understand your reasons Skip for wanting to reveal. For most of the game you've been highly defensive, which usually indicated either wolf or gifted. I'm gonna believe you, barring someone else saying..hold on I'm the hunter! Then my brain would be in a real mess, in trying to figure that one out. And even if you did have to reveal you could still make the wolves completely terrified to get rid of you.

Anyway it's dire right now. We need a wolf, or at least the cobbler TODAY. Another ordo, and it's as good as over tomorrow. Shall finish catching up on everything I missed yesterday. I'm having difficulties understanding this Legate lynch, or how it happened.

Edit: crossed with Skip

[Nogrod]

Okay Skip, I tend to trust your reveal as it looks quite unlikely a wolf or even a cobbler would try that kind of a trick - at least I can't see any benefit in them doing it (correct me if I'm wrong). And I think it's good you did that because now we can narrow down our hunt with one person toDay.

I'm not so sure the wolves would be eager to get you lynched either. You are the only risk to them aside with lynches.

But speaking of numbers... you're quite right that we need a wolf toDay. Getting the cobbler would still give us a chance the next Day but even then it would just take one wrong vote and we'd be done. So a wolf rather than a cobbler.

The downside of your revelation: the wolves will not accidentally kiil you the coming Night so that you could have hunted one of them down with you.


Anyway. There is the added problem of them having three votes against our five - and then there is the cobbler with a vote as well. So even toDay they can arrange things if we give them the chance for it.

So please, let's not vote like the previous Days, at last minute and without declaring our intentions. They'd love to steer the voting toDay with last minute surprises...

EDIT: X'd with Boro

[wilwarin538]

Ok, well that was a dissapointment, I was really sure of Legate. :(

Now we have 9 people: 3 wolves, 1 Hunter, 4 Ordos and 1 Cobbler. If we get it wrong both today and tomorrow, we lose.

Now Skippy. Hmm. I don't like this, cause I thought we had decided that the Hunter should NOT reveal, and we only have the one Gifted left.

Now lets think about this. If we don't get a wolf today and the wolves kill the Hunter tonight (and the hunter is hunting an innocent) then tomorrow we are left with 3 wolves, 3 Ordos and a Cobbler. The Cobbler will vote with the Wolves and we lose. If they kill the Hunter and the Hunter is hunting a wolf then we'll have a bit of a better chance.

If we don't get a wolf today and they just kill an Ordo tonight then tomorrow we'll be left with 3 Wolves, 1 Hunter, 1 Cobbler and 2 Ordos. Again though the Cobbler could vote with all 3 wolves and we'd lose (unless they lynch the Hunter, in which case he may take a wolf with him and we'd get another day).

Gah, my head hurts. Basically we need to get a wolf today, right?

Now back to Skip, again, I don't like this reveal at all. I'm very strongly against the Hunter revealing and I can't help but think that he's the Cobbler or Wolf trying to get the real Hunter to come out. The whole thing just doesn't sit right with me.

Let's say he's lying and the real Hunter comes out. Then we lynch Skip. If he's the Cobbler then they will kill some Ordo tonight (they won't risk going after the Hunter) and tomorrow we'd have 3 wolves, 1 Hunter and 3 Ordos. They could easily win that. If he's the wolf, well that would be actually a dumb thing for the wolves to do right now, so if Skip isn't the Hunter, he's the Cobbler, either way we shouldn't lynch him.

I don't know. I say leave him be and if he is lying the real Hunter should stay quiet, and then we just hope we get a wolf today.

x'ed with Nog and Boro, who are trusting Skip way to easily...

[Boromir88]

The problem though wilwa, is this is do or die day, where an unknown hunter could be far more harmful to the lynch today than a benefit to us at night. We need to worry about doing the job today in lynching a wolf, or in the very least the cobbler, or you can stick a phorc in us.

The situation calls that since we need, and I mean absolutely need, a baddie today there really is no choice but for the hunter to step out (which is also why it makes no sense for a wolf to make this reveal). Cobbler possibly. But if someone is actually the hunter, they absolutely 100% have to step out and say so now. We need a baddie and if Skip's not the hunter, this means he's one, and the real hunter has to step out and say so.

As it stands, Skip's been highly defensive all game, which usually to me says wolf or gifted. It could be that he's a wolf and knows today he could very easily be lynched, so might as well sacrifice and drag out the last gifted. However, I'm not sure why a wolf would do so right from the start. How many times has the 2nd leading vote getter from the previous day been basically forgotten the next? More than once. Maybe he is the cobbler, either way, if he's not the real hunter than the real hunter absolutely has to reveal now so we can take care of business today in lynching an evil Skipper.

However, I'm buying the reveal as it stands right now, because I completely understand his reasoning behind it. Yes, it means the wolves probably won't risk trying to kill him at night now (but what's the point of worrying about the night when we have to worry about lynching a wolf today?), but the situation is this desperate. Because of the desperation today, the hunter really has no other choice but to reveal, and since Skip was nearly lynched yesterday, not wanting to waste our time acquiring suspicions nad votes today, it's really understandable.

[Nogrod]

I skimmed through the last moments of yesterDay getting a feel of it but didn't start taking notes as yet as I'm going to be away for an hour. It's kind of chaotic to say the least.

But if someone is going to analyse the voting while I'm away, do put in the voting times and something about why people did what they did. The bare list doesn't tell us much and might even mislead at times. If none is going to do that, I'll do it as I come back.

And like I said in my earlier post: please, let's not do the voting that way again.

EDIT: X'd with Boro who speaks sense.

[Ozban]

I feel really bad, I blame myself for the Legate's death. Now there are nine of us left, four of that Bad-guys. We really are screwed.

Let's go all out: there's not much option left, is there? I got nothing to lose anyway, everything i did was wrong so far. And this is the only day to save the game.

During yesterDay my opinion on Legate has risen significantly. I was able to belive, that he was innocent. It was my personal-180, can't list any specific reasons, but just the change in his style caught my attention and than I reconsidered.
In that moment I started looking for wolves elsewhere, Skip being my first new choice.
After first votes were cast I was convinced that Skip's fate is sealed and evethough I deemed him a wolf, I opted not to join the wagon. My reasons were:

a) I seemed obvious that he'll be lynched even without my contribution.
b) I wanted to lay low, not to draw much attention from hairy side.
c) And finally, as I was convinced of Skip's furriness, I wanted to give puppies a tempting offer whom to vote, to try to save their comrade. I wanted to lure them to a "trap", having them to reveal their desire to save Skip. Skip cast vote for Legate right after and that sealed my suspicion of him.

Things turned out different, unfortunately. And what shocked me most was Inzil's vote. Last moment Skip-saviour. That stroke me as wolf pulling wolf out of the trouble at the last moment. Until reading skip's toDay's post I was convinced that they are wolves together, not knowing who the third is wasn't of much importance, eventhough I had few candidates.

Now I realize that my plan was naive at best, I did not consider Skip's eventual innocence. He must not be necesarily innocent though, his hunter-claim is hardly a proof. And my theory can still apply, I'm not that sure about it anymore, though.

I know this what i described can look false, It's a fragile construction, I realize that. Furthermore I got no proof on the matter, but please, consider it at least.

If someone can bring any light as to Skip's innocence/guilt, please do.

Damn It!! My head's gonna explode. That is, unless I drown in my pesonal sea of shame.

X'ed since #306. Will catch up to it now.

[wilwarin538]

But Boro, I know we need to focus on toDay, but we also have to think about what will happen later on if we make a mistake today.

If he's actually the Cobbler and not the Hunter, and the real Hunter comes forward and then we lynch Skip, then tomorrow we will be left with 3 wolves, a Hunter and 3 Ordos. Only 1 of the 4 innocents need to vote differently then the other 3 and the Wolves can then latch on and win. Ya know how hard it'll be to get everyone to agree like that? Not impossible, but hard.

So if something goes wrong today our Hunter is still our secret weapon (unless it is in fact Skip), and could end up being the Night kill and could take a wolf down with them (whether we lynch one toDay or not). So no, I don't think they should come forward if Skip is lying. It would completely defeat the purpose of the Hunter, cause no one will want to kill them, and Skip would likely just end up being a Cobbler, when we could have gotten a Wolf toDay instead.

I say Hunter shut it, let's temporarily ignore Skip, and just try to get a Wolf. Then at least if we fail today we still have a chance at an advantage if our Hunter is still unknown (if it isn't Skip).

x'ed with Nog and Ozzy...

[skip spence]

Wilwa, I understand what you are saying and find you genuine, but I still believe that I made the right decision in revealing.

One thing you keep ignoring too is that if I die (whether lynched or night-killed) and make the mistake of hunting an innocent (and gawd, haven't I been making mistakes!) the wolves win there and then.

[Inziladun]

And yes, I am the Hunter. Felt I had to reveal and put the fear of death in Inziladun in order to save my own life over an unknown I believed could be a wolf (my pick was actually Legate *double-sigh*)

I understand someone wanting to save himself. After all, that's why I voted Legate, despite having no real idea that he might be a wolf.
It makes sense that if you saw an opportunity to get your hunt-target lynched instead of you having to die too, you'd want the first option.
I would say that if skip is somehow not the real Hunter, xe should remain quiet for the best chance of getting a wolf. I'd very much hate to lynch the Hunter, though, since xir target dies regardless of alignment of xe is lynched. :rolleyes:
That is to say, I agree with Wilwa.

After first votes were cast I was convinced that Skip's fate is sealed and evethough I deemed him a wolf, I opted not to join the wagon. My reasons were:

a) I seemed obvious that he'll be lynched even without my contribution.
b) I wanted to lay low, not to draw much attention from hairy side.
c) And finally, as I was convinced of Skip's furriness, I wanted to give puppies a tempting offer whom to vote, to try to save their comrade. I wanted to lure them to a "trap", having them to reveal their desire to save Skip. Skip cast vote for Legate right after and that sealed my suspicion of him.

When you cast your vote for Legate, skip only had three votes. You thought his "fate was sealed" with that?

x/d with skip

[Loslote]

I won't be here long, just popping in briefly.

Skip rubs me the wrong way. Not in the way where I think he's a wolf, because I don't, but...gah. I just think there's something off about threatening to Hunt someone in order to save your own life - especially when it ends up with us killing an ordo. If he hadn't, and had died, he might have managed to take a wolf with him. Actually, I really don't know why a Hunter would be so adverse to dying. It's the point of the role. But Vanilwuffin makes sense, so I'd agree with her that we should not lynch skip.

Also, by process of elimination, the wolf pack I came up with is Nog, Boro, and Steve. But I don't think that's right, so I must be wrong about some of the people I semi-trust, which means I have to look really closely at Greenie, Ozzy, Vanilwuffin, and Zil. Greenie I'm least sure about, and could very well be a wolf, I just don't currently think she is. I still think it'd be insanely awesome/awful if Ozzy was a wolf. Zil I could easily be wrong in trusting. Easily. Vanilwuffin I'm pretty confident about, but I'll look at her anyway if I get a chance.

Also, may I go head-desk for a while? I may? Wonderful...

EDIT: xed with Skip and Zil

[skip spence]

And what shocked me most was Inzil's vote. Last moment Skip-saviour. That stroke me as wolf pulling wolf out of the trouble at the last moment. Until reading skip's toDay's post I was convinced that they are wolves together, not knowing who the third is wasn't of much importance, eventhough I had few candidates.

Leaving your rather dodgy post aside for now I can comment on this. I believe the reason Inzil voted Legate was because I strongly suggested that he'd die if I did (ie that I was the hunter hunting him). That semi-bluff was my last desperate attempt to stay alive and (as I hoped) lynching a wolfish Legate.

[Loslote]

It makes sense that if you saw an opportunity to get your hunt-target lynched instead of you having to die too, you'd want the first option.

But, if I understand correctly, he wasn't hunting Legate. He was hunting you:

And Inzil, you have good reasons not to vote me regardless of your role!

EDIT: xed with Skip, who (I think) cleared that up

[Inziladun]

But, if I understand correctly, he wasn't hunting Legate. He was hunting you:

He said here he was really hunting Legate.

And yes, I am the Hunter. Felt I had to reveal and put the fear of death in Inziladun in order to save my own life over an unknown I believed could be a wolf (my pick was actually Legate *double-sigh*)

[Ozban]

When you cast your vote for Legate, skip only had three votes. You thought his "fate was sealed" with that?
[/B]

It was three against one and public opinion was favoring Skip as the beast, as I said, I was being naive. But I was so certain of my reasoning at that moment, not so much now.


I still think it'd be insanely awesome/awful if Ozzy was a wolf.


Agreed, I would be going to win. Not any such luck though.

[skip spence]

I should point out that Inzil's last ditch vote says nothing about his allegiances, as far as I'm concerned. It made as much sense for an innocent Inzil as it would for a wolfish or cobblerish Inzil.

[Loslote]

He said here he was really hunting Legate.

Ahhh. I hadn't noticed that.

[wilwarin538]

Wilwa, I understand what you are saying and find you genuine, but I still believe that I made the right decision in revealing.


Well.....no, I don't think you did. Sorry, but I don't. And I don't trust you.

And I believe you just slipped up. Here:

One thing you keep ignoring too is that if I die (whether lynched or night-killed) and make the mistake of hunting an innocent (and gawd, haven't I been making mistakes!) the wolves win there and then.

Cause if the Hunter gets Night killed while Hunting an innocent, only the Hunter dies.

So yeah. Definitely don't believe you now buddy.

[wilwarin538]

*headdesk*

Ignore that last part, I just realised what he actually meant there, and it's not what I thought. Sorry Skip.

But I still don't trust you.

[skip spence]

Yeah, I was just about to point that out, Wilwa.

To Whom It May Concern:

Don't be hasty now, please! We can ill afford another mistake...


And wouldn't it be fab to turn this thing around!

Bedtime for me now, but should be able to return around 6-7 CET

[Nogrod]

Okay... and interesting. I've always thought deep emotionally written regrets more or less fishy but this self-bashing going on is just weird! :confused:


Anyway. How about we made a deal toDay, that everyone would pick at least one person who is flying under her/his radar? And then we'd do some analysing. I mean we have as a whole suspected harder only a few people (and most of them are now dead) and what have we got? So I think we need to spread the suspicions to include more people.

I don't say that means Lottie and Skip - the only two left who have been heavily suspected and voted for - are innocents just because they have been suspected and no baddies are dead.

If we'd had to vote right now, I'd probably vote for Lottie as she still seems the most suspicious of you (and I tend to trust Skip's revealment unless someone shows me a motive for the baddies to try that out). But even if I was right, only concentrating on Lottie and Skip we let the other two to smirk and smile in the background - or in the foreground, whatever: with no fear of getting caught.

So everyone promises to pick at least one person they haven't looked more closely as yet?

*going to check the voting now*

[Loslote]

So everyone promises to pick at least one person they haven't looked more closely as yet?

Either you or Boro. You've been posting a ton and all, but you two seem to slip past into "dunno" categories.

[Nogrod]

Either you or Boro. You've been posting a ton and all, but you two seem to slip past into "dunno" categories.Good. Others? Any picks? I have no preference myself as whom to pick as it feels like most of you have went under my radar.

And surely we don't need to try and organise this in a way that everyone really gets a task - and no overlapping allowed - and will report on certain hour or anything.

I mainly wished people started also looking elsewhere they have done thus far - and do something about it.


On another note... why do you guys always vote saying "for previously stated reasons" - it takes a maddening amount of time to go back for pages there and actually find them... :rolleyes:

(Okay, honestly I know, it's in a hurry people vote at last minutes, but it still is a task to get them. But I should be readu shortly.)

[Nogrod]

Here's the voting from yesterDay. I have added a few comments there but my main comments will come in a separate post.

about 12 hours before DL
Lottie -> Skip
Because his tone feels off, his votes thus far have been rather poor (basically cementing Shasta at four votes and introducing Legate when there hadn't been much suspicion of him and there really was no chance of lynching him at all) and because I don't have any stronger suspicions.

about 3 hours before DL
Boro -> Eönwë
I know it's kind of crappy to do this, but I'm going to gone for the rest of the day. Those last minute, right before the DL posts are just confusing me and impossible to read before the DL is up. Also, his voting has been suspect with abstaining from voting on Day 1. Although, understandable because at that point no vote would have mattered. But then then Day 2's vote for Lottie which he cryptically said he'd explain today. I was hoping he'd be on sooner to explain it this time, but appears not.

from this on only the minutes before DL in front of the votes

0:30
Nerwen -> Skip 2
Dead innocent…

The last minute's frenzy begins...

0:06
Green -> Skip 3
A case built up in post #255 (page 7)
*someone please remind me how to make links to individual posts!*

0:06
Ozban -> Legate
I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.

0:03
Skip -> Legate 2
I guess I'd have to go with Legate (survival reasons?)
There is the huge Legalysis on posts #229 & #230 (page 6). The outcome of it seemed to boil down on this:
Here we go, it's the Shasta-Lottie-Pitch thing once again. So far everything coming out of that triad has been very unfortunate for us Elves, the first two turning out to be a Seer and an ordo. Wouldn't it be horrible if we went on to lynch Lottie and she too turned out innocent!?

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

0:01
wilwa -> Legate 3
I don't like. He's very wishy-washy, seems to go back in forth with his opinions, and just maybe wants to seem more useful then he is and wants to keep everyone happy. I'm leaning that he could be the Cobbler, but I'm suspicious enough of him to vote him.

0:01
Nog -> Lottie
her explanation that she tried to pull out a seer-impression on D1 looks pretty dubious. Also her vote yesterDay for Pitchie while first driving for other solutions - and in the votepost suspecting Skip the most...
But also the fact that Legate suggested voting Lottie and I wanted to see competition with the voting - not knowing wilwa had voted for Leg...

0:01
Legate -> Skip 4
Dead innocent’s self-preservation
Just in case somebody wanted to vote ME still. I guess the lottie-plan should've started a bit earlier... again we are at bandwagon...

0:00
Eönwë -> Lottie 2
Definitely not liking Lottie. Just reread Day 1.On her second post she suddenly (jokingly?) suspects Shasta, and then suddenly gets more serious about it in her next post, with the very wolvish "here is some evidence for why he could be evil, but I'm probably wrong, but still, look at this evidence" sort of approach. The classic trying-to-start-other-people-suspecting-someone tactic. And then votes him after a few posts, with not much more reasoning.

0:00
Inzil -> Legate 4
A lot to digest in a short period of time. My apologies.
A self-preservation vote?

[wilwarin538]

I read through yesterDay again since I had spent most of the little time I had on looking over the previous two days, and this stood out to me, I don't know why I didn't notice it before (he's talking about myself in this post)

But I agreed with her about Pitch yesterday, and despite what Nog said earlier today, she never wavered. A wolf could push for the easy lynch, but I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else. I would have expected the cobbler to waver and be unsure on how to deal with Pitch.


Why it doesn't make sense: he says I never wavered about Pitch, then says I looked more cobblerish, and then says he'd expect the cobbler to waver. Hmm?

Anyway, there are many that I have no opinion about for one reason or another: Inzil, Steve, Greenie. I still get good vibes from Ozzy....and Boro, Nog and Lottie just greatly worry me. And I think Skip is the Cobbler, cause I don't trust his reveal, but I won't be voting him cause I want to get a wolf.

Basically I have no idea and I won't be around much tomorrow, I'll probably even need to vote really early, and that's bugging me. I don't have time to look more closely, so I'll likely base my vote on the analyses I did on everything yesterDay and then whatever happens today.

x'ed with Noggins

[Nogrod]

A few comments on the voting.

Lottie - Nothing stands out from there, although most of us have really poor voting records so to single out Skip for it... Also - and there might be a perfectly reasonable answer to this - it is interesting that Lottie seems to vote early but can be around on the Daybreak... so are you avoiding the last minute voting or is it just the scheduals?

Boro says himself his vote is kind of crappy, but actually I understand it quite well. If you have no good suspects and no time why not go for a quiet enigma? ToDay it's probably different because we can't afford blind-lynchings and I think Steve has talked a bit more so maybe he could be read now? On the other hand - if Lottie and / or Skip were his packmates that would have been quite a nice idea to try and open up that kind of waggon earlyish (I mean I actually thought of taking on that yesterDay - but in the end it seemed we had better candidates under votes).

Greenie clearly made an effort to find the wolf or to back her suspicion in public. The question is, which one was she doing?

Ozban is a curios one. His voting looks quite so understandable, but somehow I feel that not everything is quite right there. When voting he said he had "repeated his reasons several times" but the only thing I found from yesterDay was him agreeing on Skip's thoughts on Leg. And his first post toDay about how he had started thinking Leg better and actually suspecting Skip (deep in his mind but not talking of it to us) is just so confusing...

Now it all might be genuine. I do see that possibility. But would also fit with a Wolfban who needed to talk himself out from the suspicions as an innocent-killer. And even if I dislike bringing up this kind of points as I do think every newbie to the game should be taken in as himself and what he says, it kind of smells like someone had adviced him last Night (like in the previous Nights?). It is - as he says - quite a "Legate 180" he performs there from the cool Legate lyncher with his many times stated reasons to this person who "almost knew" he was innocent - and who actually suspected the other guy near the gallows who survived - but still failed to act on that. Hard to say.

Skip's vote is easy to see as a self-preservation measure. Both wolves and innocents like to survive - and I still think he's the hunter.

Wilwa's vote basically doesn't raise eyebrows: she had brought forwards this massive analysis and acted probably on that (although she really didn't give us others a chance to read the conclusion-part of it posting the mega-post two minutes before the DL :)). I'm not going to go through those analysis right now (it's way too late), but I do think there is a structural problem with ner nice point system (if she's innocent; it is a meant failure if she's a wolf); as I skimmed through her analysis of D1 yesterDay I saw that I got a fair amount of minuses from just having a different opinion in an issue of principle (I got fex. two minuses for saying twice that the wolves in general tend to want to please people and be nice, to rub them the right way!). So are you sure about your system wilwa - or are you doing something completely different with it?

My vote... okay I'm not the one to comment on that in this way. But therefore I left a short reasoning in the actual vote-post.

Legate: a dead innocent's self-preservation vote.

Eönwë seems to come in late and vote as the last or second last. On D1 I thought it was okay and understandable but I'm beginning to get more and more suspicious. Why vote on the basis of D1 on D3? So a lazy ordo or a cynical wolf?

Zil's vote seems to have been a self-preservation vote as well. As such it doesn't tell one of his affinities though.


Boro asked earlier how the Le Wagon happened. I can give you at least a partial explanation: two out of four votes to Leg were self-preservation votes...


NB. These speculations concern only the voting yesterDay. I need to try and look how they fit the larger picture later toDay. But now bedtime is reaching me.


EDIT: X'd with wilwa... and what, did I spent over an hour on that? Uh-oh.

[Boromir88]

But I agreed with her about Pitch yesterday, and despite what Nog said earlier today, she never wavered. A wolf could push for the easy lynch, but I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else. I would have expected the cobbler to waver and be unsure on how to deal with Pitch.

Why it doesn't make sense: he says I never wavered about Pitch, then says I looked more cobblerish, and then says he'd expect the cobbler to waver. Hmm?

Are you feeling ok? Because this is now the second reading error you've made in a short time. What you quote I said yesterday. So when I said yesterday "I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else" I was talking about what I said the day before about your self-vote looking cobblerish. However, yesterday I would have expected the cobbler to waver about Pitch, which you didn't do. Meaning, the day yesterday I previously thought you were the cobbler for your vote, but yesterday I know longer felt you were because you never wavered about Pitch. Long story short, I haven't thought you were wolf, either cobbler or innocent, and since you didn't do what I expected a cobbler to do yesterday, what does that leave? :rolleyes:

I'm beginning to change that "I haven't thought of you as a wolf" though, because you're making some unusual errors here. Getting anxious at seeing a victory within your grasp, are ye?

So, for your idea Nogrod. I think it's good. I shall check wilwa and Eonwe. Most likely that'll come sometime in the afternoon, since I've gotta be up early and will be heading to rest earlier than usual.

I also think no one's done a good hard look at Greenie, if I have time I shall try, she hasn't posted a great amount due to being rushed, so shouldn't be a problem. Anyone think they can do a fair analysis of Lottie? I had read through Day 1 again, basically everything she said came off evil looking and I'm afraid when I continue onto Day 2 and Day 3 that will block my more sensible judgement. So, many times we've left a wolf who was almost lynched skate on through for the rest of the game. :rolleyes: On the other hand, I need not get carried away and go completely panicky and unhinged when in these do or die situations. It tends to cause more trouble than good.

On that note, that makes me think too that Nog's idea is a very good one. Particularly picking someone who's been submarining for you, because if you focus on the person you are extremely suspicious of this could cloud our rationality and you start letting high emotions steer a lynch...not what we need today.

[Loslote]

it is interesting that Lottie seems to vote early but can be around on the Daybreak... so are you avoiding the last minute voting or is it just the scheduals?

Scheduals - DL is noon my time. My church usually goes until one (counting chatting afterwards) so I couldn't make it yesterDay. Wednesday and Thursday are also bad (Thursday more so). And I actually like last-minute voting better than early voting by quite a large margin. :p

EDIT: x'd with Boro

[wilwarin538]

Are you feeling ok? Because this is now the second reading error you've made in a short time. What you quote I said yesterday. So when I said yesterday "I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else" I was talking about what I said the day before about your self-vote looking cobblerish. However, yesterday I would have expected the cobbler to waver about Pitch, which you didn't do. Meaning, the day yesterday I previously thought you were the cobbler for your vote, but yesterday I know longer felt you were because you never wavered about Pitch. Long story short, I haven't thought you were wolf, either cobbler or innocent, and since you didn't do what I expected a cobbler to do yesterday, what does that leave? :rolleyes:

I'm beginning to change that "I haven't thought of you as a wolf" though, because you're making some unusual errors here. Getting anxious at seeing a victory within your grasp, are ye?



Now that makes sense, I brought that quote forward because the way it was worded was confusing, and I couldn't figure out what you were trying to say. It just seemed to go against itself. But I get it now.

And yeah I am a bit anxious, but not for that reason (victory for my side seems quite out of grasp at the moment). I'm anxious because of Skip's unusual reveal, the reason for which doesn't make sense to me since the Hunter is our only Gifted left, our 'secret weapon', and revealing renders them useless, and no one else seems very concerned about that, in fact two players that I consider to be two of the smartest are all fine and dandy and believe him no problem, think that if he is lying the real Hunter should just play into his little trap and hand over our only advantage. This greatly concerns me.

Gah, I need to sleep, I'm starting to get snippy. :rolleyes: I'll try to be on as much as I can tomorrow, but that sadly won't be a lot (school and other such nonsense).

[Boromir88]

Well.....no, I don't think you did. Sorry, but I don't. And I don't trust you.


Either way you try to break it down, we don't have the luxury to use the hunter to his greatest strength because of the situation we're in.

Earlier, yes, a revealed hunter means he most likely can't use his gift because the wolves would be wary to attack the known hunter. But today we need known innocents to make it to tomorrow. And even if we lynch a wolf today we're still going to be behind the 8-ball. The wolves will be in a jam to either keep the known hunter around or risk killing him at night. So, the notion that a revealed hunter is completely useless is a terrible one.

I revealed as the hunter in on of Nogrod's villages and kept daring them to kill me each night. They wouldn't, so they kept around a known innocent day after day, and then missed the opportunity to kill me when I didn't have a wolf picked. This notion that if Skip's the hunter he made a bad decision is completely false. In the best situations, yes we'd want the hunter to stay hidden, get picked by the wolves and take one down. We no longer have this luxury and a known hunter is still useful in giving us an innocent, as well as someone the wolves will be hardpressed to take the risk in killing. Because if we manage to kill a wolf today, we still got a mighty climb and if the wolves want to keep the known hunter around to help during the day, that still a bigger benefit to us than them.

I said why I understood his reasons and how it makes sense considering his actions so far. I'm going to trust that unless any one says they're the hunter. You think this makes him the cobbler. Do his actions at the lynch yesterday look Cobblerish? Would a cobbler really fight that hard to stay alive and be that defensive throughout when a cobbler who doesn't know who the wolves are, basic purpose would be to die at some point?

Edit: crossed with wilwa. Me need sleepy too, I've exhausted this debate over the hunter role. Ideally, yeah we'd want to keep the hunter unknown, but I firmly believe with how things have played out in this situation, a known hunter (despite now giving up his greatest gift) is still a larger benefit to us today, and in the following days, than to the wolves. I'll say no more about the best uses of roles.

[wilwarin538]

Basically, from what I can tell, if we get it wrong today our best chance is for the Hunter to get chosen by the wolves tonight and take down a wolf. Any other scenario if we get it wrong toDay, will result in 3 wolves being around with 4 innocents (or 3 innocents and a cobbler) and that will make it easy for the wolves to control the lynch. I know that's me being pessimistic, but I just don't want to hand over our only gifted, considering the luck we've had so far.

But if I'm the only one that feels this way, and everyone else thinks that the real Hunter should come forward if Skip is lying, then maybe the Hunter should. And if the majority says they feel that way, and no one comes forward, then we can assume Skip is telling the truth. Until then, I'm very doubtful of his honesty.

Now I'm really going to bed.

[Inziladun]

Day 1:

Most smilies removed.

Greenie, great job summarizing what everyone knows already. We know nothing, whatever the reason their (meant Lottie and Shasta of course) exchange had, we can't know. Unless they care to explain. I keep wondering what led you to writing such a list...

First post. Yes, what Greenie summarised about the Shasta / Lottie deal wasn't much of a revelation, but I still don't see anything wrong with it.

And yes, traitor/cobbler can be anybody, possibly one of those Cobb-hunt theoretists. Again, we know not.

For my part: that Lottie-shasta conversation was most likely just a random recon. Wouldn't make too much fuzz around it.

Dismisses the whole thing as "random recon". What exactly does that mean?

Pitch:

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences.

I hope you are not gonna change the history records. Would be troublesome you know, not that suprising though.

Legate: I'm so glad we (more like Nerwen) convinced you about importance of cobbler, I'm so glad you won't be "ignoring" him.


You know it would be a shame, ignoring threat of cobbler completely. On the other hand, from what i got, Cobbler tends to fall into pit by himself, we are just the pendulum. I wouldn't really assign any high priority to finding him. Just get rid of him eventually when he is revealed.

Aye, the false-reveal scenarios are dangerous, but is such a theory really worth such a witch-hunt? We are starting from the scratch. Without information of any sort we will probably witness several innocent die before we find a real cobbler.

Let's find WWs. That should be our priority. One point I'll agree on with Legate.

Can't really find fault with that bit.

My friends, what is happening to you? Yesterday's friends turning suspicious at the first sign of danger. Shall we abandon all we were because of that damned Wolf Lord reigning these dungeons? Stand up for what you are, hold on to what we were through. Hunting wolves, we put our lives on the line many times. We relied on each other, now you seem forgeting our bonds. If there are traitors among us, we will find them, whatever the cost. But let's not accuse others without any solid evidence. "Yet hope remains while the Company is true." as Lord Felagund would say. And furthermore, I can't stand the thought of Sauron's amusement when he sees us turning on each other.

This strikes me as odd, but maybe it's just an innocent IC effort. Still, it almost sounds like a lupine "C'mon guys, let's get those wolves!" spoken in Tolkien-like prose.



I'm not convinced either. Neither that you are WW, neither that you aren't.



And do you really think someone would cease to suspect you because you disagree with them? Wouldn't convince me at least.



I'm terribly sorry to disappoint you Boro but I'm actualy male.



Aye Legate! You just uncovered our tactical masterpiece.

Some back-and-forth with Pitch and Boro. Legate noted that Boro's mistake about Ozban's gender was an old wolf-ploy between mates. No way to know here.

Fair thought, There are quite a few "submarinish" guys out there. That's surely worth considering. Don't they have time? Or they just stay low purposefully?

Oh screw it! this is too much for my mind to analyze.

Response to Nog.

It may be stupid, or completely out of the league, but...

+ + Legate

To clarify, which I feel I should, at least rudimentary:
I can't be sure of anybody. Eventhough Shasta and Lottie seem strange, mostly that Shasta's opinions of Pitch which seem to strangely fluctuate, (ad. Glirdan's post above).
Legate attacks, but always leaves himself some "escape path", he's too eager to back down. He does seem to try not to offend anyone. Eventhough it's not what I mean exactly, He's way too agreeable (or alibistic, your choice).

Anyway, my sixth sense tells me to vote for him.

A vote for Legate, which seemed rather out of the blue. I didn't pick up on the "sixth sense" remark at the time. Setting the stage for a false Seer-claim, maybe? Hmm. He's new, so it's impossible to tell if the phrasing is usual for him.

Day 2:


Legate I have been voting in synch with my conscience. Eventhough my vote can't accomplish anything, I won't hide in the crowd, I'm not such a hypocrite. I'm not afraid to speak up and fight for what i believe.

As for the ranger, Te Saluto!

And cause everything is said,
Oz retires to his bed.

Good night, fellow corpses.

The first part was responding to Legate, who'd said of Oz's vote the day before:

I must say that wilwa seemed okay to me from those people who voted randomly - she sounded genuinely frustrated, while Ozban sort of stood out as the negative example - he voted while there was no real chance of lynching me, and was doing it in the sort of "normal" way, as if his vote could still accomplish something, but most of all with the sort of "alibistic" style the Wolves sometimes have, saying "my hands are clean from the blood of this one".

The vote did look like a "hands clean" thing, but he certainly was direct and confident with his explanation.

After reading whole thread through again, I tend to suspect Lottie. Especially his toDay's posts sound crooked. Then again, I'd say that if Lottie'd be a wolf, she wouldn't cast a vote first. And even without any firm accusation, just a "gut-feeling"? Such an approach seem to risky for a wolf to try it.

Hmm. Just saw this. Mixed up Lottie's gender, but then got it right in the same paragraph? Odd.

I'm not really fond of Legate either, he's still seems somehow... someone described it as "too smooth". His toDay's post did fix his reputation partly, but I shall still observe him closer than the others.

Pitch never sounded wolfish, but that scenario of him being dreamt unnerves me. eventhough it seems to me more likely, that Nerwen was dreamt about. From Shasta's formulation of his trust towards her... Still can't now. (Actually I begin to think it's motto of this whole game: Do something when you know nothing.)

Legate seems a bit better to him, though he'll still "observe him closer". Also thinks Nerwen more likely to have been Shasta's dream. As it looks now, she almost certainly was, but that surely didn't appear to be the most likely scenario to me at the time.

Those last two votes, Nog n Greenie, are quite suspicious. Reading through Nog's posts, he remains active, but refrains from attacking anybody. Now I'd really need comparison with some of his older games, whether it's totaly normal or not.


This speaks for him though, doesn't it?

Serching for traces of some manipulation, as Nerwen suggested, I tend to think that it wasn't Nog's doing. I'm convinced though, that among Shasta-voters were at least one, more likely two wolves.

If there has been any silent intrigues, I'd say that Zil and Gilr were most active at accusing pauvre Seer. It may be genuine, of course, but in a way it seem too concentrated on Shasta, leaving Lottie out, why? Cover?

Also...

What the hell???
I don't know. Seems too carefree, too crowd-loving if you know what I mean.

And...

Same.

In the end Eönwë was only one of us that defended Shasta. For that he has my trust. As much as is possible in this game.

Truth is, sadly I know none of you, in-game at least. So it's hard to guess peoples intentions, without comparision with their previous styles.

He didn't like the manner in which skip and Greenie voted, thinking it was "carefree" and "crowd-loving". If I get his meaning, I would agree about skip's but not necessarily Greenie's. Then thought Eönwë was trustworthy for defending Shasta? Why was that? If I recall correctly, Shasta was done for by the time Steve got there. Standing up for Shasta at that point was meaningless.

X'ed previous with Wilwa.

You seem quite bloodthirsty ya know?
Your logic is sound though.
Is it your Lupine hunger?
About that we should ponder.
Or you may really fear for your skin.
In that case, we shall protect your kin.
Considering danger upon our head,
we need now more to be said.
Only then we may truth discern,
And to Nargothrond return.

Later...

Hmm. Poetry. Seems odd, but maybe he just does this. It's hard to judge with a new player.

++Pitchwife

Got to hurry now, so I won't explain myself entirely. Simply it's too stupid to let it get away.

Won't probably be back before DL.

Choose wisely.

Later...

Votes Pitch, despite saying earlier he thought Nerwen was probably Shasta's dream. He left the door open for Pitch in that same post, granted.

Day 3"

Reading through all that is surely puzzling. I've had few Legate-180s.
Thing is that there is still eleven of us, 3 puppies, 1 traitor, a hunter and 6 ordo's.

From what I think:

trust: Nog
Nerwen
Eonwe

suspects: Legate
Skip
Inzil
Lottie

Puzzled by: Boro
Wilwa

Greenie is somehow quiet, or so it seems, but i don't have anything against her.

I'll be here later in the afternoon. So I'll try to sum more then.

Later...

Has Legate, skip, me, and Lottie for his "suspect" list.

What a "funny" thought.

I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.

Interesting. Opens the door for voting Legate, and now is quite happy with skip seemingly, despite having him in the "suspect" category the previous post. And Oz himself "doubted Pitch's furriness" by saying Nerwen was likely Shasta's dream and that Pitch "never sounded wolvish".


He didn't vote for Shasta actually (D1), but he started discussion that led to it, and then he voted Lottie, but not sooner than first Shasta-vote was cast (by Lottie actually)

I just don't trust him, I will probably vote for him if something big doesn't happen.

Later...

This is called Silence before the storm...

Might seem a bit flippant, there.

Hilarious :D But joining in crossed my mind too.

I have other options though, especially you!

Ok. Responds to Legate saying he was considering joining the bandwagon for skip. Back to suspecting him, again?

+ + Legate

Can't help myself, but to find him treacherous. I have repeated my reasons several times. So I'll refrain from doing it again.

First vote for Legate. We know how that turned out.

Time's running out, lightning was seen, thunder's to be heard any moment.

Kid? you are about 4 months older than me!!

Banter with Wilwa.


Day 4

I feel really bad, I blame myself for the Legate's death. Now there are nine of us left, four of that Bad-guys. We really are screwed.

Let's go all out: there's not much option left, is there? I got nothing to lose anyway, everything i did was wrong so far. And this is the only day to save the game.

During yesterDay my opinion on Legate has risen significantly. I was able to belive, that he was innocent. It was my personal-180, can't list any specific reasons, but just the change in his style caught my attention and than I reconsidered.
In that moment I started looking for wolves elsewhere, Skip being my first new choice.
After first votes were cast I was convinced that Skip's fate is sealed and evethough I deemed him a wolf, I opted not to join the wagon. My reasons were:

a) I seemed obvious that he'll be lynched even without my contribution.
b) I wanted to lay low, not to draw much attention from hairy side.
c) And finally, as I was convinced of Skip's furriness, I wanted to give puppies a tempting offer whom to vote, to try to save their comrade. I wanted to lure them to a "trap", having them to reveal their desire to save Skip. Skip cast vote for Legate right after and that sealed my suspicion of him.

I already mentioned this earlier, but three votes, with many left to go, doesn't seem to be a surefire lynch on someone you think is a wolf. And he was "convinced of skip's furriness" despite using skip's analysis as a reason to suspect Legate again?

Things turned out different, unfortunately. And what shocked me most was Inzil's vote. Last moment Skip-saviour. That stroke me as wolf pulling wolf out of the trouble at the last moment. Until reading skip's toDay's post I was convinced that they are wolves together, not knowing who the third is wasn't of much importance, eventhough I had few candidates.

Now I realize that my plan was naive at best, I did not consider Skip's eventual innocence. He must not be necesarily innocent though, his hunter-claim is hardly a proof. And my theory can still apply, I'm not that sure about it anymore, though.

I know this what i described can look false, It's a fragile construction, I realize that. Furthermore I got no proof on the matter, but please, consider it at least.

If someone can bring any light as to Skip's innocence/guilt, please do.

Damn It!! My head's gonna explode. That is, unless I drown in my pesonal sea of shame.

It was three against one and public opinion was favoring Skip as the beast, as I said, I was being naive. But I was so certain of my reasoning at that moment, not so much now.

Explains his "mistakes" as naïveté. Yet he's seemed to be very at home and savvy to the game, for a newbie. I don't know if he's played WW before, but he surely doesn't act like he's new.

Conclusions: Some concerns could be written off as personality quirks, but there's been a deal of inconsistancy too. I'm rather worried about him, at the moment.

[skip spence]

But if I'm the only one that feels this way, and everyone else thinks that the real Hunter should come forward if Skip is lying, then maybe the Hunter should. And if the majority says they feel that way, and no one comes forward, then we can assume Skip is telling the truth. Until then, I'm very doubtful of his honesty.

Listen Wilwa, I really do understand your concern, and don't blame you for it. I'm aware that it takes a measure of faith on your part, but if you clear your mind and think about it again, I think you will find that is makes sense for us, it really does.

[Loslote]

Listen Wilwa, I really do understand your concern, and don't blame you for it. I'm aware that it takes a measure of faith on your part, but if you clear your mind and think about it again, I think you will find that is makes sense for us, it really does.

It's not that she's not thinking clearly, skip. She just disagrees on what would be best for the village. It happens pretty often, and what's best one game might not be best another game - but most players keep their general Werewolfing...for lack of a better word, ideals during every game. Take our lovely co-moddess Agan for instance. Her views about the cobbler stay pretty much constant - and get her into trouble sometimes. But if she ever advocated another view on the cobbler, we'd all know something was up. :p

[Eönwë]

Well we pretty much need to get a Wolf toDay or we're practically defeated. Even if we do get the Cobbler toDay (or the wolves kill them by mistake toNight), they're still going to be 3 against 4, which means they only need two of us to vote differently and they've already got the vote tied. So we need to think hard about who we want to vote and vote together, toDay and toMorrow (whatever toDay's outcome).

Okay Skip, I tend to trust your reveal as it looks quite unlikely a wolf or even a cobbler would try that kind of a trick - at least I can't see any benefit in them doing it (correct me if I'm wrong). And I think it's good you did that because now we can narrow down our hunt with one person toDay.

I can actually see a very good reason for it. As a revealed Hunter, a wolf could avoid lynching and the question of why he wasn't Night-killed for at least a few Days, more than enough to win the game in this case. That said, I do believe skip, because, like Boro said, he has been acting quite like a possible gifted. And it is the time for the Hunter to step out, because having someone as a known innocent (And pretty much un-Night-killable) at this point is invaluable.

[Eönwë]

Eönwë seems to come in late and vote as the last or second last. On D1 I thought it was okay and understandable but I'm beginning to get more and more suspicious. Why vote on the basis of D1 on D3? So a lazy ordo or a cynical wolf?
Well, it seems that this DL is not good for me. I only get back home about three hours before DL (I have a free morning today), and at that point I was rereading Lottie's posts and I had only just finished Day 1.

And I wanted to look more closely at Legate before even thinking about voting him. Of course, now we know he's innocent.

Ok, I have about 20 minutes left, I'll try to do a list of what I think of people.

[Eönwë]

Relatively Safe:
Skip - Well, I believe his hunter reveal.
Boromir - Though at first I thought he was evil, he seems to be becoming more and more innocent, and with the best interests of the village at heart.
Wilwarin - She always seems innocent to me at first, but after the Skip thing I'm not so sure that she really has the best interests of the village at heart.


Unsure:
Ozban - Well, he seems well acquainted with this game for newbie, and quite cunning. That said, I'm not really convinced he's evil.
Inziladun - Sleek and cunning as ever, I still am not really sure on his role, but I think we need to watch out for anything suspicious. I think I'll also try to take a closer look at him later.


Dangerous:
Loslote - Probably my greatest suspicion now.
Green - She scares me. Seems like she's trying to be genuine, but something's just a little off. Though I think her early suspicion of skip redeems her somewhat. But not enough to get her out of this category.
Nogrod - Scares me almost as much as Greenie. Almost as loud and attacking as normal Nogrod, but something seems a little more calculating than usual.

[Eönwë]

New thoughts on Wilwa:

Though I'm inlcined to believe that she genuinely does disagree with Skip's reveal for the good of the village, her talk of the true hunter (if it's not Skip) staying hidden could be a clever wolvish ploy to seem as innocent as she does, yet would also make sure that the Hunter says hidden at this point when we need xem to reveal most. But she does seem genuine. I don't know. I suppose my doubts of her innocence due to this point arise from the fact that I adisagree and don't think that what she's saying would be best for the village. That said, I've finally come to the conclusion that I think she's innocent, or at least innocent enough for me not to vote her unless something drastic happens before the end of the Day.


And I leave you now, at the end of this quadruple post.

[wilwarin538]

It's not that she's not thinking clearly, skip. She just disagrees on what would be best for the village. It happens pretty often, and what's best one game might not be best another game - but most players keep their general Werewolfing...for lack of a better word, ideals during every game. Take our lovely co-moddess Agan for instance. Her views about the cobbler stay pretty much constant - and get her into trouble sometimes. But if she ever advocated another view on the cobbler, we'd all know something was up. :p


I can actually see a very good reason for it. As a revealed Hunter, a wolf could avoid lynching and the question of why he wasn't Night-killed for at least a few Days, more than enough to win the game in this case. That said, I do believe skip, because, like Boro said, he has been acting quite like a possible gifted. And it is the time for the Hunter to step out, because having someone as a known innocent (And pretty much un-Night-killable) at this point is invaluable.

You two as well? Alrighty, I guess that's it then. Seems I'm the only one who thinks I shouldn't do this, so I'll trust that I'm missing something and go along with you guys.

I am the real Hunter. A frustrated one who is a bit stressed at being the final gifted with a role she's had only once (and failed at) and I wasn't really willing to render myself useless, but if everyone wants that then there you have it.

That's why I don't believe Skip. That's why I jumped at what I thought was a slip on his part, I was excited that I could show he was lying without actually having to reveal. But, well, he didn't slip. So here I am.

[Nogrod]

Particularly picking someone who's been submarining for you, because if you focus on the person you are extremely suspicious of this could cloud our rationality and you start letting high emotions steer a lynch...not what we need today.Exactly.

I could take a look at wilwa as I have no idea of her at the moment (she looks quite innocent and reasonable most of the time, but). I can also take a look at Greenie as there shouldn't be too many posts to read and she has totally flown under my radar. Although that will take place in the afternoon.


I thought I wouldn't come back to this issue any more, but maybe one more time... I'm anxious because of Skip's unusual reveal, the reason for which doesn't make sense to me since the Hunter is our only Gifted left, our 'secret weapon', and revealing renders them useless, and no one else seems very concerned about that, in fact two players that I consider to be two of the smartest are all fine and dandy and believe him no problem, think that if he is lying the real Hunter should just play into his little trap and hand over our only advantage. This greatly concerns me.Well, obviously Skip revealed because he was facing a lynching yesterDay at the last minutes - and a hunter doesn't want to die lynched because there is a possibility he takes an innocent with him. Looking at our numbers we hardly can afford losing two innocents in one lynch.

If we had lynched Skip-hunter yesterDay (and he had taken Leg with him as he says), we'd now be 5-3 with no "known innocent" around. Or think if he'd still be hidden and we'd lynch him and he'd miss his kill - we'd be on 4-3 facing the Night and wolves would win immediately.

So I'd say he's better out in the open now.


On the other hand, I have said that I trust him because I don't see any benefit for a baddie pulling out that kind of trick. After a night slept I must say I can see one scenario though.

So, for the argument's sake, let's suppose he is a wolf in danger of lynching yesterDay. He then comes up with this brilliant idea of posing as the hunter and threathening Inzil with taking him with if he votes for him. So now he has to continue the game as the hunter. That scenario would put this odd mistake in place: One thing you keep ignoring too is that if I die (whether lynched or night-killed) and make the mistake of hunting an innocent (and gawd, haven't I been making mistakes!) the wolves win there and then.Although I must say that it would be odd if a wolf who poses as the hunter and had the whole Night time to prepare for his act wouldn't have checked the rules concerning the hunter (although it looks pretty weird that someone being the hunter for three Days wouldn't know them...). So it's an odd mistake whichever Skip's leanings are.

Well, if Skip is only posing, the real hunter knows that and thus more or less knows that Skip is a wolf or a cobbler. Considering that - and our dire need to lynch a baddie toDay - I'd say the hunter should really think about revealing this betrayal.* Especially if s/he faces lynching.

But without a real hunter coming forwards I think we should not lynch Skip as he could take away an innocent and we do an innocent double-lynch.



* There are of course many aspects to the hunter's decision, like how sure he is of his target for the Night if he would get attacked by the wolves, how sure he is about us getting a baddie toDay without his involvement in the affairs, or does he think we're lynching someone he really thinks is innocent...


Hey, I just found an optimistic scenario! If Skip is a wolf and we lynch a wolf toDay (other than him), then the wolves try to kill the real hunter the next Night and he takes one of them with him - then we just lynch Skip toMorrow and we win! :)


EDIT: X'd with wilwa!!!

[Nogrod]

Well, this changes things considerably... and well, my gut reaction would be to trust wilwa actually as my theory about a baddie Skip coming up with a nice trick started to look like a believable one as I wrote it down. *needs to think*

[Boromir88]

I am the real Hunter. A frustrated one who is a bit stressed at being the final gifted with a role she's had only once (and failed at) and I wasn't really willing to render myself useless, but if everyone wants that then there you have it.


Oh how so very convenient this is... :rolleyes: *knocks head off wall brain matter splatters everywhere*

If you are the hunter who wants to use your gift so bad, we should just lynch you and let you hunt Skip, that'll put this matter to rest. Or you're a wolf trying some type of risky counter now to get us to lynch the real Hunter, Skip. I'm not sure how this benefits the wolves though, since this would just mean if we lynch Skip, you'd be the one he picks. So, cobbler? The theory being you now see an opportunity to get us to lynch the true hunter, Skip, but since you countered he would target you, the cobbler, and take you down with him, thus sealing basically the win for the wolves. Am I on to something here my lady?

[Nogrod]

All right. What would wilwa and the bad side accomplish if wilwa was a cobbler or a wolf and came forwards disputing Skip's reveal?

If we lynch the real hunter Skip toDay because of wilwa's fake-reveal what happens? Skip takes with him wilwa of course as not to risk an innocent dying.
- If wilwa is a wolf it will be 4-1-2 (cobbler included); so in the next morning either 3-1-2, or 4-2.
- If wilwa is the cobbler it will be 4-3 and in the next morning 3-3!!! :eek:

If we lynch a real hunter wilwa, the same maths apply ie. if Skip is a wolf we might have some fighting chances toMorrow (if they kill their cobbler during the night) but if he's the cobbler we lose automatically.

Uh-oh...

Well what would happen if we lynched one of them right?

We'd get a cobbler or a wolf. And here I think there are different probabilities between Skip and wilwa. For I think it would have been not a good idea from a wolwilwa to make a fake-reveal but as a cobbler move it would be fantastic.
- So with wilwa correctly lynched we'd probably be in 5-3 - and thus 4-3 the next Day, with a known innocent (Skip) with us.
How about Skip then? With him I could see also the scenario where he tries to save himself form lynching also as a wolf. So he might be either one as well (he was really facing lynching there).
- If Skip is a cobbler we make it the same as with wilwacobbler; 4-3 toMorrow + a known innocent (wilwa).
- With Skipwolf we make it to 5-1-2 in the end of the Day and thus either 4-1-2 or 5-2 toMorrow (with a known innocent wilwa).

Now the question becomes, whether we can afford to not lynch one of them or whether we can take the risk of doing that? And how confident we can be to pick the right one? The last question has a bearing to the first one to be sure.

So what are our chances if we leave them both be?

Out of 9 people left we'd have a pool of 7 possible lynchées - so every innocent would have 6 possibilities to choose - and 3 of them would be baddies (3 wolves or 2 wolves & 1 cobbler). So a 50% chance to pick a baddie.

- If we'd lynch a wolf we'd be in 5-1-2, then either 4-1-2 or 5-2 toMorrow.
- If we'd lynch a cobbler we'd be in 5-3 and then toMorrow in 4-3.
- If we'd lynch an innocent we'd be in 4-1-3 and then toMorrow in 3-1-3 or 4-3.

In this scenario one must note, that toMorrow's situation includes us having there two known persons (wilwa & Skip) of which one is the hunter and another is either a wolf or a cobbler.

Quite scary scenarios...

EDIT: X'd with Boro

EDIT2: Underlined those scenarios for toMorrow that lead to a straight wolf-win or a situation where only one wrong vote would lead to wolf-victory.

[wilwarin538]

Am I on to something here my lady?

No you aren't. At all. Y'all thought I should come forward, so I have.

If you lynch me I will take Skip down with me, and if he ends up being the Cobbler then we will lose. If you lynch me and I choose someone else I might get lucky and hit a wolf, but maybe I won't and an innocent could go down with me (and we lose). Basically it's riskier to lynch me. But of course you will now say "well if Skip's the real Hunter it would be risky to lynch him too", well yes, if he is the real Hunter. But he isn't, and I'm thinking that it would actually have been a smart thing for a wolf to fake reveal, knowing that we might be too scared to kill him and knowing it wouldn't be weird if he was still alive the next day, hence keeping him quite safe.

I suppose you just have to trust me. You say it would still be ok to get the Cobbler today, but a wolf would be better. Well Skip is one of them, so that's our best bet.

Not that this is much of proof, but yesterDay I decided I should start leaving hints for who I'm hunting at night, incase I were to die and no one went down with me, then my choice would be known to not be a wolf. But I only thought of it yesterDay, so if you go back and see my Legate vote there's an arrow icon, something I never use, and that was because Legate was my hunt choice at the time, and I was planning to continue with him during the Night.

And my vote Day 1 was a hint. I went on and on all day that the Hunter is only special when they die. And then I voted myself. I thought it was poetic...

x'ed with Nog

[Boromir88]

The thing is Nog, I still can't fathom a reason why a wolf would make the hunter reveal at this time. With having a significant voting advantage (and already showing the capability of controlling the lynches) I can't see them wanting to make a hunter reveal.

Which means out of wilwa or Skip, one is the hunter, the other is the cobbler who has now seen his/her opportunity to die for the wolves. I think best case, we lynch one of them today if we lynch the cobbler, we are still in a must lynch wolf scenario, but we've taken away the traitor who can follow the wolves vote (or just self-vote and let the wolves tag on).

If we lynch the hunter, because at this point my head is completely scrambles and will have to try and sort this out. I guarantee whether it Skip or wilwa, if they target the other one, they'll only find the cobbler and it's game over. Since going into the night this would make 3 wolves and 4 innocents, they make their kill and it's 3-3. So if we choose wrong and lynch the hunter, the hunter should choose someone else as a shot in dark for a wolf. But at this stage whoever the real hunter is, is going to be extremely peeved off if we wind up lynching them and probably not in any mood to help us, seeing as that would mean we've managed to lynch 2/3rds of our gifteds. :rolleyes:

My head's going to take a break. I don't see much of a choice other than wilwa or Skip today though, even if one is most certainly the cobbler. And if we hit the cobbler, than barring the wolves doing something completely crazy and killing the hunter, we'll have a known innocent in the count and no more cobbler who can just tack on a vote with the wolves.

Edit: crossed with wilwa

[wilwarin538]

For I think it would have been not a good idea from a wolwilwa to make a fake-reveal but as a cobbler move it would be fantastic.

Well, you know I'm a smart wolf, so that's not a possibility. And I've been a Cobbler once and my fake reveal as a Ranger ended up keeping the real Ranger alive for 2 days and ultimately giving away one of the wolves and handing the victory over to the village. I don't think I'd ever try a fake reveal as a Cobbler, ever again, no matter how good the situation is. But that's just my word, which you don't seem to trust...

x'ed with Boro, maybe I won't hunt Skip then, I'll hunt someone else and if y'all want to lynch me then hopefully I choose a wolf....still think it was a good idea for me to come forward? I'm not sure anymore...

[Inziladun]

Oh, bloody hell. A counter-reveal. :rolleyes: At least it didn't come at the end of the Day.

Time to go back and look at them both.

[Nogrod]

But that's just my word, which you don't seem to trust...Basically I don't so much as to trust more or less anyone at this point... but did you read the part you quoted? I said it would be a bad move... meaning: less believable you did it (as a wolf, that is). So I don't think you are a wolf. You might be the cobbler. As could Skip. Hard to say.

In any case, as I said, if one of them is a wolf, then it is Skip as he was in dire straits last minutes in the game yesterDay - and that would be a good way to get himself clear from the situation (also as a cobbler).

Anyway. Greenie is actually going to pass by here and then I have things to do, but I'll be back later.

[wilwarin538]

Oh, and one more thought before people come on and start voting. Let's say there hadn't been any Hunter reveals today, which out of me and Skip would have more likely been lynched? I haven't gotten very much suspicion this whole game, Skip has, perhaps there's a reason for that?

I won't be able to come on again for a few more hours because of classes and such, but I'll be on to vote (likely for Skip, unless something more crazy happens) in about 3 hours.

[Boromir88]

Oh, and one more thought before people come on and start voting. Let's say there hadn't been any Hunter reveals today, which out of me and Skip would have more likely been lynched? I haven't gotten very much suspicion this whole game, Skip has, perhaps there's a reason for that?

I won't be able to come on again for a few more hours because of classes and such, but I'll be on to vote (likely for Skip, unless something more crazy happens) in about 3 hours.

I'm staying back from who to trust for now until I see what Skip has to say 'bout all this...

I will say the hints you've left aside, your argument that "Nog you know I'm a smart wolf, ergo I'm not a wolf and I've failed at a cobbler before. I would not try fake reveals as a cobbler again, ergo I'm not a cobbler. Means I must be hunter" isn't all that convincing. In the very least doesn't look anymore convincing than Skip's reasons for revealing. Different situation this time mah dear, simply because you've had a bad go your previous time as cobbler doesn't mean you aren't playing it brilliantly this time around. We all know your brilliance as a villain.

With that being said, the Legate hint you left in your post does speak in your favor (unless now seeing as the hunter was the only gifted left yesterday you decided to plant hints as the cobbler for a situation like this). Plus your self-vote on Day 1 could still be a signal to the wolvsies. And your general attitude today with the combined frustration of everything looks genuine, as opposed to Skip's more defeatist attitude of "Well this is a mess, I've got no choice now."

As to whether I'm happy you still revealed? Yes, because if you're the hunter this means Skips the baddie and we can lynch him. If you're not this means you're the baddie and we lynch you. If Skip's not the hunter, and you left his claim uncontested, with the wolves advantage in voting today, if we proceeded to lynch an innocent today it's all over.

Ok. Say if Skip is the cobbler here and his claim was not contested by hunter-Wilwa. The wolves wouldn't know which one of you is the cobbler or not and with the wolves numbers today could easily steer it towards an innocent we still lose 1 in the innocent count. Meaning we go into the night with 3 wolves, 5 innocents (one being the unknown hunter). Let's then Wilwa you are the hunter, and not having to reveal, the wolves picked you to kill at night, and you took one of them down. We're still in a must lynch wolf the following day, because at this point, your gift would just balance it. This would just make it 2 wolves to 4 innocents (no hunter). It's still a must lynch wolf the following day or, during the night it goes to 3 to 2, and then the wolves make it 2-2 with their night kill.

If you're the real hunter you made a good choice. If you left Skip's claim uncontested, we likely wouldn't lynch him, but the wolves + cobbler-Skip could have steered it toward another innocent. Where even if you stayed hidden, and they by chance killed you and you killed a wolf with you, the next day is still, lynch a wolf or it's over for the village. I hope you can follow that jumbled bit of math. If you're the hunter, I never said it wouldn't be a headache to come forward and see who's telling the truth, but now we know at least one of you is false.

[wilwarin538]

Ok. Yeah, I guess I see your point. I just didn't like the idea of revealing because the baddies manipulated me into a situation where I was forced to, I prefered the idea of revealing because I wanted to, you know? But yes, I see that the situation did call for me to.

"Nog you know I'm a smart wolf, ergo I'm not a wolf and I've failed at a cobbler before. I would not try fake reveals as a cobbler again, ergo I'm not a cobbler. Means I must be hunter" isn't all that convincing.

I know. But I felt I had to try every argument I could come up with, no matter how lame they may be, since it's kind of important for you guys to pick the right person here.

*goes back to paying attention in class*

[Loslote]

I am the real Hunter.

This makes sense to me. I thought I was just being silly, thinking that skip reeked of evil. Of course, it might still be me picking up on gifted vibes (again), but I really don't trust skip, I didn't really even when I thought he was the Hunter, and I trusted Vanilwuffin even before this.

I'll be back before DL toDay, so I don't have to vote yet.

[skip spence]

Okay, I see that Wilwa has come out in the open...

Was hoping that she'd understand what I was trying to do is and stay hidden, or stay hidden because she'd deem it wiser as it long seemed, but it is understandable that she didn't in the end...

Wilwa is the real hunter, of that I'm 95 % sure. I understood that already from the beginning, which is why I urged her to consider what's going on.

Listen Wilwa, I really do understand your concern, and don't blame you for it. I'm aware that it takes a measure of faith on your part, but if you clear your mind and think about it again, I think you will find that is makes sense for us, it really does.

So, why then?

In my first post of the Day I mentioned a second reason for revealing:

I do have another reason to reveal too, apart from saving my life, and that is one I feel should come out into the open given how this game has developed.
Yes, I wanted the real hunter to reveal herself, if only for me, so our chances of getting a wolf toDay would increase.

Now I know Wilwa's innocent. I hope that you can believe me too when I say that I'm not a bad guy, not a wolf nor a cobbler, but a mere ordo.

If you think about what I did, but yesterDay and toDay, it makes little sense for a wolf to do so, wouldn't you say? It makes much more sense for a desperate innocent. Especially what I'm doing now. If I were a baddie, I'd have no reason whatsoever (bar a crazy double-bluff) to go out and say that Wilwa is right and that I bluffed.

[skip spence]

Of course, I had hoped that Legate would turn out to be a wolf. If he did, I'd quickly go out and say that my bluff yesterDay was false. Now, with Legate a proven innocent, I feared that I would seem the obvious lynch toDay if I didn't do anything drastic to stop it.

[skip spence]

I had also hoped that the real hunter would turn out to be somebody else than Wilwa, the person most universally trusted up until toDay. Still I think a lot can be learned from all this.

[Boromir88]

Jimminy crickets oh for crying out loud. Yes, what have we learned from this Skip? Other than my brain matter has not just been splattered from banging it off a brick wall, but now you and wilwa have stomped on it and mushed it up out of pure joy it seems.

*Gives up*

[Boromir88]

In my first post of the Day I mentioned a second reason for revealing:


Right, second reason...and I have the super secret special wolhuncentler role :rolleyes:

[skip spence]

Jimminy crickets oh for crying out loud. Yes, what have we learned from this Skip? Other than my brain matter has not just been splattered from banging it off a brick wall, but now you and wilwa have stomped on it and mushed it up out of pure joy it seems.

*Gives up*

Haha, I won't lie to you and say I'm not amused. :D

But I'd hate to lose this game like this. I'm having dinner now but then I'm going to have a look at toDay's proceedings. Stay cool now!

[Nogrod]

Uhh... :confused:

Finland - Hungary footballgame's second half started a minute ago. I'll be back in 45 minutes...

[A Little Green]

I'm the real hunt..

No. I'm not. I'm just getting a bit too confused. :rolleyes:
Haha, I won't lie to you and say I'm not amused. :DHope you'll excuse me for not being amused at all. I was already kind of starting to make sense of the two reveals when you turned the whole thing upside down again. The thing is, I can't see why an ordo would fake a reveal. If you wanted the hunter to come out so we had a known innocent, fine, so did many others, and that would almost make sense in some twisted way. Instead, you said you didn't want the hunter to reveal, so - what? I haven't thought this through yet, but this far I haven't come up with a plausible reason for an innocent to make a fake reveal. It would, though, make sense if you were a wolf almost facing the gallows and deciding to pose as Hunter to survive through yesterDay's voting (that would point to Zil's innocence?) and this Day. Then when the real Hunter comes out, you realise she's more credible than you, so you turn the whole thing around again and claim you're just an ordo who revealed as Gifted. Repeat: I haven't thought this through, in fact I'm still processing things, just wanted you guys to be aware of my thought processes.

That said, my massive collection of quotes I wanted to comment on has mostly lost its importance due to recent developments. A few things though.
Do his actions at the lynch yesterday look Cobblerish? Would a cobbler really fight that hard to stay alive and be that defensive throughout when a cobbler who doesn't know who the wolves are, basic purpose would be to die at some point?A good point. If Skip is a baddie, he's most likely a wolf who took desperate measures to avoid getting lynched.

I understand someone wanting to save himself. After all, that's why I voted Legate, despite having no real idea that he might be a wolf.
Zil's vote seems to have been a self-preservation vote as well. As such it doesn't tell one of his affinities though.I have the feeling I'm seriously missing something, but unless I am, nobody had voted Inzil so how was his a self-preservation vote? Please someone tell me what I've missed.
Though I'm inlcined to believe that she genuinely does disagree with Skip's reveal for the good of the village, her talk of the true hunter (if it's not Skip) staying hidden could be a clever wolvish ploy to seem as innocent as she does, yet would also make sure that the Hunter says hidden at this point when we need xem to reveal most. But she does seem genuine. I don't know. I suppose my doubts of her innocence due to this point arise from the fact that I adisagree and don't think that what she's saying would be best for the village. That said, I've finally come to the conclusion that I think she's innocent, or at least innocent enough for me not to vote her unless something drastic happens before the end of the Day.I don't know why but this passage struck me as strange, especially the underlined part. Not sure if I can explain it so that anyone can understand what I mean, but I'll try. Somehow, from the tone of that, it looks as if he knows Skip isn't the hunter even though he had said, in his previous post, that he believes the reveal. I know he's just making a scenario of under what conditions it would make sense for a Wilwawolf (wow, I love that word!) to disagree with Skip's reveal. Rather, in his scenario he is assuming Wilwawolf knows Skip is not the real hunter, but a wolf would have no way of knowing that! He is clearly not suggesting that Skip and Wilwa are fellows, though, either. What pops into my mind is that Eonwe is Skip's fellow, and the knowledge of that kind of slipped into Wilwawolf's thinking in his scenario.

[wilwarin538]

Okay, I see that Wilwa has come out in the open...

Was hoping that she'd understand what I was trying to do is and stay hidden, or stay hidden because she'd deem it wiser as it long seemed, but it is understandable that she didn't in the end...

Wilwa is the real hunter, of that I'm 95 % sure. I understood that already from the beginning, which is why I urged her to consider what's going on.


Listen Wilwa, I really do understand your concern, and don't blame you for it. I'm aware that it takes a measure of faith on your part, but if you clear your mind and think about it again, I think you will find that is makes sense for us, it really does.

So, why then?

In my first post of the Day I mentioned a second reason for revealing:


I do have another reason to reveal too, apart from saving my life, and that is one I feel should come out into the open given how this game has developed.

Yes, I wanted the real hunter to reveal herself, if only for me, so our chances of getting a wolf toDay would increase.

Now I know Wilwa's innocent. I hope that you can believe me too when I say that I'm not a bad guy, not a wolf nor a cobbler, but a mere ordo.

If you think about what I did, but yesterDay and toDay, it makes little sense for a wolf to do so, wouldn't you say? It makes much more sense for a desperate innocent. Especially what I'm doing now. If I were a baddie, I'd have no reason whatsoever (bar a crazy double-bluff) to go out and say that Wilwa is right and that I bluffed.

Are you kidding me?

Let me get this straight. You are an innocent who decided to pretend to be the Hunter to force me to reveal myself?!? Ya know you could have just come on this morning and said "I think the Hunter should reveal" and maybe I would have (though, probably not), but faking a reveal to make me come out? I don't appreciate that kind of manipulation, especially since the only reason I did end up revealing was cause I thought that would convince people to vote you since I assumed you were guilty. I would not have revealed otherwise.

I'm so confused. I don't understand what you thought this would accomplish...

...if your innocent. Which I'm not inclined to believe. But if you were guilty it'd be pretty dumb to take back the reveal, since you could have convinced people today to go after me or someone else. But still.....it's weird.

Oh my goodness my brain hurts. And there are only 3 hours left, and I won't be here for the last of them.

x'ed with Greenie, and her first line made me laugh out loud in the middle of class :p

[Ozban]

I am puzzled by today's development. I like Inzil's summary of my actions, but I have nothing to add. He's got everything there.

Leaving that matter aside: I agree with Boro's post #349 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640818&postcount=349).

Way I see It, we shouldn't lynch Skip nor Wilwa today. I trust Wilwa, I dunno about Skip, but It's not worth the risk. And even with all that Skip's innocent forced gifted fake-reveal, in attempt to lure the real gifted out? What the hell that was? :mad: It's all just way too crazy.

[Eönwë]

Was hoping that she'd understand what I was trying to do is and stay hidden, or stay hidden because she'd deem it wiser as it long seemed, but it is understandable that she didn't in the end...

Yes, I wanted the real hunter to reveal herself, if only for me, so our chances of getting a wolf toDay would increase.

Wait, what? I sense a contradiction here. So you wanted her to stay hidden, but also to reveal?

This really doesn't help you case, Skippy.




Also, excuse me while my brain explodes.


edit: x-ed with Greenie

[skip spence]

You keep forgetting how this whole craziness begun. I faced the gallows and was trying to bring down Legate instead. The hunter-reveal was a spur of the moment ploy that would have been greatif Legate was guilty. Since he wasn't that put me and the village in a tricky spot and I deemed that keeping up the fake hunter-claim had it's advantages. If Wilwa had stayed hidden, which seemed likely for a good while, the scenario was perfect. I would not risk getting lynched, and Wilwa, who I now knew to be the hunter, wasn't suspected anyway. Now, with the present situation, we at least know that Wilwa truly is the hunter, right?

Will post more with my take on who the baddies are (at least for me the fog is beginning to lift, or so it seems)...

[wilwarin538]

Way I see It, we shouldn't lynch Skip nor Wilwa today. I trust Wilwa, I dunno about Skip, but It's not worth the risk. And even with all that Skip's innocent forced gifted fake-reveal, in attempt to lure the real gifted out? What the hell that was? :mad: It's all just way too crazy.

Yeah well ya know what ended up happening because of this whole thing? People spent most of the day talking about whether to go for me or Skip, and now 3 hours before DL we have to look elsewhere, with not a lot of time to do so.
He caused us to waste our Day with that little scheme, and I'm not impressed.

Our options then, assuming no one plans to lynch me, and assuming we're all too paranoid to lynch Skip (despite how badly I want too)

Nogrod
Boromir
Ozban
Lottie
Eonwe
Inziladun
Greenie

And I don't know. Everyone goes back and forth to looking bad and looking good, and you're all just too good at this game. I need to think more.

x'ed with Steve and Skip

[Inziladun]

Coming back into the latest soap opera development...

I'm the real hunt..

Heh. I almost did that too.

A good point. If Skip is a baddie, he's most likely a wolf who took desperate measures to avoid getting lynched.

Agreed. It seems a convoluted ploy for an innocent to make. And a Cobbler should have been ready to take a lynch for the wolves yesterDay, instead of saving xemself.

I have the feeling I'm seriously missing something, but unless I am, nobody had voted Inzil so how was his a self-preservation vote? Please someone tell me what I've missed.

Right before yesterDay's DL, skip, who was looking like the lynchee of the Day, told me directly that I "had good reason not to vote for him". I took that as him saying he was the Hunter and had chosen me, which is why I voted Legate.

Way I see It, we shouldn't lynch Skip nor Wilwa today. I trust Wilwa, I dunno about Skip, but It's not worth the risk. And even with all that Skip's innocent forced gifted fake-reveal, in attempt to lure the real gifted out? What the hell that was? :mad: It's all just way too crazy.

You don't want to lynch either of them? Who, then?

x/d with Steve, skip, and Wilwa

[Nogrod]

Finland lost 1-2 with a goal on the very last second of the game... :(

So I'm not willing to lose this as well toDay.

I do have a problem with all this now. I really do. I'll check a few things and will be back shortly.

Greenie: I can tell you what you are missing - Skip threathened Zil at the last minutes yesterDay - that was his "hunter-reveal" - and Inzil made sure Skip doesn't die (at least that is what it looks like). Today he only "came open" with it.

[Ozban]

You don't want to lynch either of them? Who, then?


Like the hell I know!

Whom do you want to see on the stake?

[A Little Green]

Right before yesterDay's DL, skip, who was looking like the lynchee of the Day, told me directly that I "had good reason not to vote for him". I took that as him saying he was the Hunter and had chosen me, which is why I voted Legate.Ah. Figured. I noticed that too but somehow my brain didn't connect it to this "self-protection vote" -thing. Makes much more sense now. Thanks.

[wilwarin538]

OK, I think I'm going to vote for a quieter person or someone who doesn't stand out to me as much, because all the louder ones today I feel better about (ie Boro, Nog and Lottie).

So I think I'll vote for someone out of Eonwe, Inzil, Ozban and Greenie. Though I'd love to vote Skip, but in the off chance he's telling the truth or is just a Cobbler, I kind of want to gamble to get a Wolf.

I'd really like to get more people's thoughts on people other than me and Skip, cause I need to vote in the next 25ish minutes (basically before my class ends).

x'ed with Greenie

[Boromir88]

Our options then, assuming no one plans to lynch me, and assuming we're all too paranoid to lynch Skip (despite how badly I want too)

Nogrod
Boromir
Ozban
Lottie
Eonwe
Inziladun
Greenie


Well if we want someone from there, I am currently the most uncomfortable with Lottie, followed by Nogrod. Lottie has seemed all too sure about this madness today. If Skip's not a wolf, and he did this scheme as an innocent which dragged out the real hunter, the wolves are having a field day today.

With the way these lynches have completely been botched so far, sure it's risky to Skip and he turns up innocent...but what about the risk in not voting for someone who as Eonwe has now pointed out just seems to be crappin' out answers as he goes along. Doesn't matter how much he contradicts himself now, it just seems like he's throwin' out whatever "don't lynch me" excuse he can come up with at this point.

[Boromir88]

Whatever it is that we decide to go with today, Skip's going in my personal time out corner list. After this stunt, if you're innocent I really don't care, I'm just going to pretend you're in timeout and thus can't speak. :rolleyes:

[skip spence]

Okay here's the people left (I'm excluding me):

Wilwa
Boro
Nogrod
Greenie
Eonwe
Inziladun
Ozban
Lottie

Of those I scratch Wilwa immediately. She is the hunter I'm sure.

Boro and Nogrod have been complete question-marks for me up until now, but at present I'm willing to bet that none of them are wolves. They both seem genuine today. It is not beyond the realm of possibilities that one of them have been fooling me so far, but if so, I can only applaud.

That leaves:
Greenie, Inziladun, Ozban, Lottie and Eonwe.

If I'm right, only one out of those five are innocent.

Now I was impressed with Inziladun's analysis on Ozban here: #336 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640801&postcount=336)

Inzil sharply list many of the unnerving inconsistencies in Ozban's voting and reasoning. He looks even worse to me since I know I'm innocent. Also, Inzil's choice of questioning Ozban suggests that at least they are not wolves together.

Eonwe has also voted Lottie repeatedly, and suspecting her for most of the game. Am I not right Eonwe?

This would suggest that Lottie and Eonwe aren't wolves together, especially since Lottie has been suspected rather heavily right from the start.

So between between Inzil, Ozban, Lottie and Eonwe, there are probably two wolves I think. Feel best about Inzil at the moment.

Which leaves me with Greenie.

I am almost certain she is a wolf.

Please have a look at my detailed post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640764&postcount=305) on her earlier toDay as well. She's evil I tell you!

I understand you (innocents) can't share that feeling wholeheartedly and I'm sorry for putting you thought this. But I did what I felt I had to do.

[skip spence]

Wait, what? I sense a contradiction here. So you wanted her to stay hidden, but also to reveal?

Not a contradiction. I immediately understood that Wilwa was the hunter judging by her behaviour after my fake-reveal. That's what I mean by revealing to me. I also felt that an immediate open counter-reveal would be okay (though less preferable) as we then would get a known innocent, and I hoped that you would believe my explanation too.

[wilwarin538]

Gah, class is over early. I have to go and won't be back before DL. :confused:

So I'm going to vote

++Lottie

I know I just finished saying that I feel ok with her today, but that's only been today, I've suspected her every other day and hunted her twice. We have gotten close to lynching her more than once, and I think the fact that we've consistently suspected her means we should just go for it, there must be a reason we kept going back to her.

Good luck everyone. *crosses fingers*

x'ed with Skip, whom I still do not trust at all...

[Inziladun]

Whom do you want to see on the stake?

You, perhaps?

Whatever it is that we decide to go with today, Skip's going in my personal time out corner list. After this stunt, if you're innocent I really don't care, I'm just going to pretend you're in timeout and thus can't speak. :rolleyes:

Or lynch him Day 1 to be on the safe side. :rolleyes:

x/d with skip and Wilwa

[skip spence]

So, it's football here too, and in order to make my intentions clear:

++Greenie

Edit; xed with Wilwa and Inzil and I'm sorry for it. It's a shame we voted differently. By all means, innocent people, go for Lottie if you want to (she is very suspicious) but don't spread you votes I beg of you!

[Eönwë]

Now what if I were to say that I am the real Hunter?
Ok, ok, just joking. :p



*Picks up pieces of brain scattered around the room*

Ok, but seriously: :eek:


So, in reality, I think it makes more sense that Wilwa is really the hunter. Skip, on the other hand, I'm not sure.

These are the possibilities (all of the ones possible):

Wilwa is the hunter and Skip is innocent.
Wilwa is the hunter and Skip is a Cobbler.
Wilwa is the hunter and Skip is a Wolf.
Wilwa is an innocent and Skip is the Hunter.
Wilwa is an innocent and Skip is a Wolf.
Wilwa is an innocent and Skip is the Cobbler.
Wilwa is an innocent and Skip is an innocent.
Wilwa is the Cobbler and Skip is the Hunter.
Wilwa is the Cobbler and Skip is an innocent.
Wilwa is the Cobbler and Skip is a wolf.
Wilwa is a Wolf and Skip is the Hunter.
Wilwa is a Wolf and Skip is an innocent.
Wilwa is a Wolf and Skip is the Cobbler.
Wilwa is a Wolf and Skip is a Wolf.


Ok, now the scenario for each:

1. What Skip wants us to believe is the truth. We have no other proof, but it is a possibility, as innocents may sometimes pretend to be Gifteds in order to try to help the village, but if you like at his reasoning it is contradictory, so it doesn't really seem as though he's thought it through enough for this.

2. More likely. Skip tries to stay alive until toMorrow (his reveal is so that the wolves don't kill him until then), and can then assist the wolves in order to let them clinch the game. In addition, it adds more confusion, and would allow him to say things that the rest of the village would trust as an almost certain Innocent. Luckily, Wilwa intervened.

3. Skip tries to save himself yesterDay, and has to back it up toDay with a Hunter reveal. Benefits are that he is likely not to get lynched and that him not getting killed would not raise any suspicion (though it wouldn't really, what with him being a top suspect yesterDay, but maybe he thought to just in case). On the other hand, it is risky, especially if the real Hunter does eventually reveal, as was the case.

4. Wilwa is trying to shield Skip the Hunter, so wolves won't see a threat in him in the hope that they would vote him in the Night, to the same effect (but with less risk). Or she could be trying to get him lynched to let him possibly take down a wolf, and make it a Now-or-never situation at the end of toDay. On the other hand, she could think he's a Wolf or Cobbler and is trying to call him out on it and get him lynched. That is also an option.

5. See 4.

6. See 4.

7. Both are innocent. Both are trying to shield the true Hunter. Each may think it's the other (more likely on Wilwa's reveal) or think that the Hunter is still out there. Any of them might also be trying to draw out wolves, but this is a much more likely possibility for Skip's reveal, and he's not saying Wilwa is suspicious. Or, as Skip suggested for himself, any of them might be trying to get the Hunter out in the open (again, more likely for Skip's but Wilwa may just be intensifying it).

8. Wilwa counter-reveals to cast us into doubt over Skip's reveal. Mass confusion ensues. Skip then tries to hide himself, hoping he can hide behind a hopefully innocent person trying to help him, but may be trying to get Night-killed.

9. Skip may be telling the truth, and then Wilwa may have just been trying to confuse us all by counter-revealing instead of the real Hunter, in order to stay alive another Day and Night.

10. Skip fake-reveals to save himself and has to back it up. Wilwa realises he is a wolf and tries to cover him, and he accepts. Unlikely because it requires some co-ordination. Or maybe Wilwa thinks he's innocent and tries to get him lynched. Or Wilwa thinks he really is the hunter and tries to undermine him, which he uses to use advantage by hiding behind her.

11. Skip reveals because he feels he needs to, for whatever reason (claim yesterDay, the right time, etc.). Wilwa tries to undermine him (very risky) so that he both isn't trusted, and so that effectively has lynch-protection, and won't arouse suspicion if not killed. Alternatively, she could be trying to test whether he really is the Hunter so that she knows whether to avoid him at Night. Or she thinks he is the Cobbler, and is somehow trying to co-ordinate something for toMorrow or might be sacrificing him for the good of her wolf-pack. Or she thinks he's innocent and shielding the Hunter, and just wants to discredit him, or maybe help bring out the real Hunter.

12. Skip is telling the truth. Wilwa thinks he is the Hunter and tries to undermine him. Or Wilwa thinks he's an innocent trying to shield the Hunter and wants to bring out the Hunter. Or Wilwa thinks he's a Cobbler and is trying to show him that she knows he's one.

13. Wilwa knows he's the cobbler and tries to show him. Wilwa thinks he is the Hunter and tries to undermine him. Wilwa thinks he is an innocent and tries to force him to admit that he's not really the Hunter, and so discredits him.

14. Both Wolves. A cunning plan to confuse us all for the rest of the Day and hopefully both survive.




I personally think 1 or 2 is the most likely, but because of what Wilwa said earlier, I don't think we should dismiss 4 totally. And 7 is always an option.


Note: I started this post about an hour ago, so my thoughts may have slightly progressed by the end from what they had in the beginning.


edit: actually x-ed with Greenie too (same post as last time, i.e., the long one).

[Ozban]

I understand you (innocents) can't share that feeling wholeheartedly and I'm sorry for putting you thought this. But I did what I felt I had to do.

My english may be getting rusty, but you don't count yourself as innocent?

Actualy this whole post seems as something only a wolf would write.

I could also state my knowledge of my innocence, but realizing I have no way to convince you, I do not. You keep only repeating: "I'm innocent! I'm innocent!" Scared puppy I say.

[Nogrod]

Okay, let me be straight with this.

So you Skip say you are an innocent who came up with this great idea of fakely threathening another player to be taken with you if you die ie. pretending to be the hunter - and you decided to pick Inzil as your target. And you did that in the last minute hassle?

Okay, even if I do find this threathening others at last minute panic as quite an odd way for an innocent to behave, I do admit that even innocents might play it rough and tough to stay alive sometimes. But if you're innocent, did it ever occur to you that Leg could be the hunter? In the worst case scenario we might have lost two innocents because of your trick.

This gives me some headache too: If Wilwa had stayed hidden, which seemed likely for a good while, the scenario was perfect. I would not risk getting lynched, and Wilwa, who I now knew to be the hunter, wasn't suspected anyway.How did you "know" she was the hunter before she revealed? Some suitable hindsight to boost the cleverness of your "theory"?

Okay. I hope you see it makes perfect sense to see you as a wolf who had to make a panic-save yesterDay and after looking at how people seemed to trust wilwa realised you had good chances of facing the gallows... and needed to change tactics?


Ooops! A lot of x'posting and voting going on....

[Loslote]

If you think about what I did, but yesterDay and toDay, it makes little sense for a wolf to do so, wouldn't you say? It makes much more sense for a desperate innocent. Especially what I'm doing now. If I were a baddie, I'd have no reason whatsoever (bar a crazy double-bluff) to go out and say that Wilwa is right and that I bluffed.

No. Because you were, again, in danger of being lynched. This threw another wrench into things, and it looks like it's working - there's a lot of talk now about lynching someone else entirely. So, for a wolf, it does, in fact, make sense.

What pops into my mind is that Eonwe is Skip's fellow,

Wanted to mention that this theory makes a lot of sense. Not sure why else I quoted...I think there was a pressing reason at the time...

Let me get this straight. You are an innocent who decided to pretend to be the Hunter to force me to reveal myself?!? Ya know you could have just come on this morning and said "I think the Hunter should reveal" and maybe I would have (though, probably not), but faking a reveal to make me come out? I don't appreciate that kind of manipulation, especially since the only reason I did end up revealing was cause I thought that would convince people to vote you since I assumed you were guilty. I would not have revealed otherwise.

Skip has been manipulating people a lot lately - first Zil with his baseless threat, and now you with his fake reveal. I can't see an innocent (other than tp) doing that. A wolf, maybe.

I deemed that keeping up the fake hunter-claim had it's advantages.

This did not have advantages for the village as a whole. It had advantages for you.

Which leaves me with Greenie.

I am almost certain she is a wolf.

Please have a look at my detailed post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640764&postcount=305) on her earlier toDay as well. She's evil I tell you!

I understand you (innocents) can't share that feeling wholeheartedly and I'm sorry for putting you thought this. But I did what I felt I had to do.

And the fact that she's suspected you for Days has nothing to do with it?

The underlined part is what caught my eye. It sounds forced and almost like he's a paniced wolf. Your detailed post did not convince me at all. The only thing persuasive about this persuades me that you're evil. Sorry, but I don't buy it.

EDIT: x'd since the Skip post I quoted

[Ozban]

Someone stated before, that in order to prevail, we need to lynch a wolf tonight, and to do that we need all innocents to vote together.

I trust Wilwa and she voted already. Lottie would not be my first pick, but I should probably vote her, "for the sake of the crew".

What do others think?

[skip spence]

OBut if you're innocent, did it ever occur to you that Leg could be the hunter? In the worst case scenario we might have lost two innocents because of your trick. I was highly suspicious of Legate already and voted him the previous day. So, no, it didn't occur to me.

This gives me some headache too: How did you "know" she was the hunter before she revealed? Some suitable hindsight to boost the cleverness of your "theory"?
She did squirm like a worm on the hook, while all others seemed to believe me.

[Ozban]

The underlined part is what caught my eye. It sounds forced and almost like he's a paniced wolf. Your detailed post did not convince me at all. The only thing persuasive about this persuades me that you're evil. Sorry, but I don't buy it.


Aye, scared puppy as I said above.

Do we have enough space left to lynch Skip? Still there's possibility of him being cobbler, this Greenie-accusation would be fitting his goals in that case.

[Nogrod]

Okay, time-out for me... really.

I admit, I love this game because of these situations where the different scenarios, bluffs and all that stuff just blow your mind off. But this is just plain crazy. :confused:

[Loslote]

Not a contradiction. I immediately understood that Wilwa was the hunter judging by her behaviour after my fake-reveal. That's what I mean by revealing to me. I also felt that an immediate open counter-reveal would be okay (though less preferable) as we then would get a known innocent, and I hoped that you would believe my explanation too.

This comes off as somewhat arrogant. Sorry, but yeah. I'm still wanting to lynch you. Is everyone else agreed that we absolutely will not? Because otherwise, I'm pretty sure we'll get a wolf here.

Edit; xed with Wilwa and Inzil and I'm sorry for it. It's a shame we voted differently. By all means, innocent people, go for Lottie if you want to (she is very suspicious) but don't spread you votes I beg of you!

Yes, it's a shame they all decided to vote for their suspicions instead of blindly following you.

By the way, don't lynch me. I'm an ordo. Lynching me toDay would be bad. Of course you can't believe me. But I've sort of got to put it out there.

[Loslote]

Aye, scared puppy as I said above.

Do we have enough space left to lynch Skip? Still there's possibility of him being cobbler, this Greenie-accusation would be fitting his goals in that case.

I'd vote him. But I don't know about anyone else, and I'll be holding my vote for a while yet. Not until a minute before DL, though - that'd be chaotic and more likely than not would end up with a bad choice.

[skip spence]

Oh man, I just counted and that double post just does it. We're doomed now. The best we can do is match the baddies and hope to get lucky with the flip of the coin.

*gives up and leaves for the football match*

[Boromir88]

By the way, don't lynch me. I'm an ordo. Lynching me toDay would be bad. Of course you can't believe me. But I've sort of got to put it out there.

Yep, it requires whether I believe that or not. For as much as I've looked through the messy lynch Day 1 and have not been trusting of your involvement in it...you've definitely been more trusty than Skip. Not sure if that's much comfort though, because now Skip is looking unhinged I can't see the wolves going crazy like this when they have this game completely wrapped around their paws so far. Even if he was nearly lynched yesterday, surely the wolves wouldn't get panicky about trying to escape that situation?

I do suggest no matter his role, just pay no attention to him. If you're innocent, no offense Skip, but I think it's a well deserved ignorance. If you're the cobbler or a wolf, then good, don't want to hear what you have to say anyway.

[skip spence]

But hey, vote Lottie, she's definitely bad to the bone!

xed with Boro and added: or Greenie but don't spread the votes

[A Little Green]

If Skip isn't a wolf, he's being totally absurd. His stunt makes no sense for an innocent. I'd feel most confident about lynching him, but if he's telling the truth it absolutely sucks. Of the others, I'd prefer Eonwe. I'm not really fond of trying Lottie.


EDIT: x-ed with Ozban's 386

[Loslote]

But hey, vote Lottie, she's definitely bad to the bone!


Yeah. That sounds like you believe it. "Definitely"? You can't say that unless you're the Seer. You're not. So you can't say it. You haven't even mentioned that you looked at me. You've barely mentioned that you suspect me. And now I'm "definitely" evil? Riiiight.

EDIT: x'd with and agree'd with Greenie

[Ozban]

Skip... You know what. So be so good, please.

Boro your suggestion isn't that helpful, we got no idea whom to lynch, we could go with lottie, since wilwa started it, but do we want to?

:eek: I'm gonna go nuts soon!

[Ozban]

But lately has Skip been acting, as if he wanted us to lynch him, that can either be cobbler trick, or wolfish double trick to lead us into believing he's a cobb, thus to ignore him.

[Boromir88]

Boro your suggestion isn't that helpful, we got no idea whom to lynch, we could go with lottie, since wilwa started it, but do we want to?

:eek: I'm gonna go nuts soon!

That was said more out of frustration to Skip if he is really innocent. But you and me both.

I need more time and tea. Tea will be of great help. Gimme half an hour.

Edit: crossed with Ozzy

[Nogrod]

It is possible both Skip and wilwa are innocents.

But I do think it more probable they are not. In that case I'd say Skip is the baddie.

To me the question becomes then: is the risk of lynching Skip worth taking?

The answer to me is: if we find a candidate that looks more like a wolf than him, then let's go. If not, then rather Skip than wilwa (Skip has already confessed he has lied and that wilwa is the hunter).

EDIT: X'd with a host once again...

[Inziladun]

If we don't want to go with skip, Ozban still looks like a good bet to me. And his lynch could tell us something about others, perhaps, namely skip and Eönwë.

[Loslote]

I'd prefer Skip to Steve or Ozzy, but I'm guessing that those three are our pack (wild guess, but a guess nonetheless) so I'd be okay with any of them.

[Ozban]

I'm not finding anyone more likely. Only that Wilwa's vote baffles me. :(

[A Little Green]

Skip, take it down a notch and be sensible. We can't believe you just like that, and I believe we'd all benefit if you'd try to explain yourself once more, because you - are - not - making - sense. You're starting to look cobbler to me, but the problem is that a cobbler taking desperate measures to save themselves doesn't make sense.


EDIT: x-ed with a host

[A Little Green]

I'd prefer Skip to Steve or Ozzy, but I'm guessing that those three are our pack (wild guess, but a guess nonetheless) so I'd be okay with any of them.I've been thinking along the same crazy lines, actually, though I'm not convinced in the slightest. I doubt we'll find a likelier wolf candidate than Skip though, the way he's going.

[Inziladun]

Skip, take it down a notch and be sensible. We can't believe you just like that, and I believe we'd all benefit if you'd try to explain yourself once more, because you - are - not - making - sense. You're starting to look cobbler to me, but the problem is that a cobbler taking desperate measures to save themselves doesn't make sense.

That's the problem. Skip's ploy doesn't make a lot of sense from any angle, but it's even more bizarre to have been a Cobbler stunt. If he's the Cobbler, I don't see why he didn't just take the lynch for the wolves.

x/d with Greenie

[Eönwë]

If we vote the hunter and they choose someone innocent we've lost the game. If they choose a Wolf, we have two more Days, I believe, in order to catch one.

If we vote someone else and they're an Ordo, just two separate votes from innocents toMorrow will seal our fate. If we vote a Wolf, we have two more Days, I think.

So do we go for Skip or Wilwa, or do we go for someone else entirely?

[A Little Green]

That's the problem. Skip's ploy doesn't make a lot of sense from any angle, but it's even more bizzare to have been a Cobbler stunt. If he's the Cobbler, I don't see why he didn't just take the lynch for the wolves.Exactly. I see most sense in a Skippywolf doing that than an innocent or a cobbler. Not convinced, though.


EDIT: x-ed with Steve

[Nogrod]

the problem is that a cobbler taking desperate measures to save themselves doesn't make sense.But a wolf making desperate steps would make sense.

If Skip is a wolf and pulled himself out from the lynch yesterDay with that hunter-impression he had to come up with something toDay - later the Day - when wilwa had counter-revealed and it started looking that maybe more people tended to trust wilwa than him. And that is a nice plan indeed - and makes sense.

EDIT: X'd with a few

[skip spence]

All that I will add is that the wolves (and the cobbler who'll probably hold his/her vote until very late) can afford to vote together today if they have to, but if one more innocent votes for another person than those who have votes already, namely Green and Lottie, they don't have to and they win. So, again, don't spread your votes, fellow ordos! We're as good as dead, but there's still a slim hope...

[Boromir88]

Skip, take it down a notch and be sensible. We can't believe you just like that, and I believe we'd all benefit if you'd try to explain yourself once more, because you - are - not - making - sense. You're starting to look cobbler to me, but the problem is that a cobbler taking desperate measures to save themselves doesn't make sense.


That's what made sense yesterday I mean if Skip is the cobbler and wouldn't know the wolves. Unless he was outright sure about his judgement that Legate was not a wolf and then threatened Inzil into not voting for him.

However the cobbler can be a giant mess in the voting the last days when it's this tight. And by really unexpectedly fighting to not get lynched he's done just that today.

Argh, even if we get the cobbler today it's still a must kill wolf situation tomorrow. Almost seems like prolonging the inevitable. Or we just go out all for broke today, go for someone else if it's a wolf we get ourselves a bit more time (2 wolves, 6 innocents - including hunter and cobbler). If we're wrong then well we're wrong and this game ends. Drag out this seemingly long torture or go all or nothing?

Edit: crossed with a bunch

[Ozban]

There is hardly anyone 100% convinced. And there is hardly any way to do so now in such a short time. I shall vote with the majority. That seems only thing reasonable in this whole situation. Decide yourself, I'm gonna grab something to drink. Be right back.

[A Little Green]

But a wolf making desperate steps would make sense.

If Skip is a wolf and pulled himself out from the lynch yesterDay with that hunter-impression he had to come up with something toDay - later the Day - when wilwa had counter-revealed and it started looking that maybe more people tended to trust wilwa than him. And that is a nice plan indeed - and makes sense.Exactly. It's still kind of insane but certainly makes more sense than an innocent doing that. Or a cobbler.


EDIT: x-ed with Skip, Boro and Ozzy

[Ozban]

All that I will add is that the wolves (and the cobbler who'll probably hold his/her vote until very late) can afford to vote together today if they have to, but if one more innocent votes for another person than those who have votes already, namely Green and Lottie, they don't have to and they win. So, again, don't spread your votes, fellow ordos! We're as good as dead, but there's still a slim hope...

I fear he might actually be right. :(

[Loslote]

I fear he might actually be right. :(

Random thought: This dismalism is pretty much only used by Skip and Ozzy. It's possibe that the wolves are so sure of their victory, that they think the innocents are, too - so they're trying not to seem confident and excited, but unconfident and depressed. Just a thought.

[Inziladun]

I fear he might actually be right. :(

But skip is saying that we must vote for Lottie or Greenie. More manipulation?

[A Little Green]

All that I will add is that the wolves (and the cobbler who'll probably hold his/her vote until very late) can afford to vote together today if they have to, but if one more innocent votes for another person than those who have votes already, namely Green and Lottie, they don't have to and they win. So, again, don't spread your votes, fellow ordos! We're as good as dead, but there's still a slim hope...You seem awfully sure that the ones who voted for me and Lottie were doing the right thing. I can say for myself that voting me was stupid. I don't think Lottie is a wolf though for all I know she could be. I'd rather vote you.

Besides, if one of the votes already given is by a wolf (meaning you), it means we still have seven people to vote, only two of whom are wolves. It would be a mistake to believe the lynch is settled, or that it has to be either me or Lottie, because the case is anything but that.


EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Boromir88]

This is when I really need wilwa around. Innocent or not, refuse to trust Skip's judgement, and I'm wary of what Lottie and Nog have to do in all this...

I was going to I'd trust what Ozban wanted, but it seems like he also is stuck and confused as I am. At this point my heads scrabbled. I haven't given the look at Greenie today like I wanted, and now it's probably late. I usually have an excellent read on Zil and I've had an innocent feeling through most of this game...so Zil, your last ideas here about what you want t do? (Sorry if I missed it and you have to repeat it. There's been so much hectic cross posting)

[A Little Green]

Oh, and the cobbler is still out there, but can we assume the cobbler knows who the wolves are and can vote with them?


EDIT: x-ed with Boro

[Inziladun]

I think my first preference might be skip, with Ozban a very close second.

[A Little Green]

Could we get enough people to vote Skip? He's our best bet I'd say. I'll vote Lottie to avoid getting lynched myself if I have to, but I don't find her all that suspicious, but like I said I'd prefer Skip.


EDIT: x-ed with Inzil

[Loslote]

Could we get enough people to vote Skip? He's our best bet I'd say. I'll vote Lottie to avoid getting lynched myself if I have to, but I don't find her all that suspicious, but like I said I'd prefer Skip.

I think we could. I'd vote him. I don't suspect you, either, and I absolutely don't trust skip.

[skip spence]

Arg! now Holland is destroying Sweden too...

You seem awfully sure that the ones who voted for me and Lottie were doing the right thing.
I'm not sure that you and Lottie are wolves. I'm pretty certain.

I was just stating the stone cold truth. There are three wolves and a cobbler out there and they will vote together if they have to (if the cobbler isn't stupid which I doubt) because they have nothing to lose from it if they get an innocent. Then they win. That makes four votes. If they all vote me (which I find certain at this point) the remaining three ordos must vote for the same person, you Greenie or Lottie, to force a draw. Then we ordos might get lucky with the coin-toss.

It is possible that one or both of you are innocent, but I highly doubt it.

[A Little Green]

I was just stating the stone cold truth. There are three wolves and a cobbler out there and they will vote together if they have to (if the cobbler isn't stupid which I doubt) because they have nothing to lose from it if they get an innocent. then they win. That makes four votes. If they all vote me (which I find all but certain at this point) the remaining three ordos must vote for the same person, you Greenie or Lottie, to force a draw. Then we ordos might get lucky with the coin-toss.

It is possible that one or both of you are innocent, but I highly doubt it.Unless you're a wolf, meaning that we only have two wolves and a cobbler to vote, as opposed to four ordos.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Now back for the rest of the Day.

And this is just crazy.

Skip's maths probably work - in case he is an innocent and there are four evil-intended votes to come. But if he's not an innocent - and a wolf - and happy with the choices... that would be his best bet to kind of force us to lynch an innocent.

But even if there were four votes to come it is not the end of the game. I'm not sure if the wolves would be too happy to vote in concerto toDay as they'd still need to manage it toMorrow...

[Loslote]

I'd suggest voting sooner rather than later. Last-minute voting flurries often end up with cross-posting and confusion. It'd be better, I think, to vote together now (or soon) instead of right at DL.

[Boromir88]

Thing is Zil I think Skip is the cobbler and Ozban, well I'm feeling better about than some others so...

I think we could. I'd vote him. I don't suspect you, either, and I absolutely don't trust skip.

I don't trust Skip because I think he's the cobbler. I don't trust you in all this because weren't you the one who came in after Day 1 to say you tried to look like the seer? I thought "Makes sense I've tried that before," but now not that sure.

So, the likely cobbler-Skip or a shot in the dark for a chance at a wolf? Cobbler would still put us in a desperate situation tomorrow. I'm going all or nothing and not putting my head through another desperate situation the next day.

++Lottie

Either a wolf where tomorrow we can regather and relax from this psychotic day today or innocent and in that case it's over.

[A Little Green]

Ack, since I'm pretty sure Skip is a wolf and can't say that about anyone else - and if I'm right and he's a wolf we still have more innocent than evil votes to come. Besides, we can't afford a last-minute voting chaos now.

++ Skip


EDIT: x-ed with Lottie and Boro - ouch, if Boro is innocent we're goners..

[skip spence]

Unless you're a wolf, meaning that we only have two wolves and a cobbler to vote, as opposed to four ordos.
Yes obviously. I'm aware that the ordos don't know that I'm not a wolf, unfortunately. But I know the truth. And I'm sure you do too.

But think of me as a wolf as an experiment. Who would my fellows be?

Then think of me as an innocent. Who would attack me?

[Nogrod]

To me then...

It could be Lottie whom I have suspected a long time now and whom we have failed to lynch thus far.

It could be Skip whose acts toDay look wolvish - or at least suicidal-cobblerish.

Of others I'm not too sure about.


EDIT: X'd with two votes...

[Inziladun]

All right. I guess someone has to take the plunge.

There doesn't seem to be any support for going after Ozban, and neither Greenie nor Lottie look as bad as skip.

++skip

x/d with Boro, Greenie, skip, and Nog

[Loslote]

But think of me as a wolf as an experiment. Who would my fellows be?

Steve and Ozzy.

Then think of me as an innocent. Who would attack me?

If you were an innocent, you wouldn't have acted this way. At least, I don't think you would have. Because, you see, for an innocent, this is insane.

++Skip

[skip spence]

Okay. Now back for the rest of the Day.

And this is just crazy.

Skip's maths probably work - in case he is an innocent and there are four evil-intended votes to come. But if he's not an innocent - and a wolf - and happy with the choices... that would be his best bet to kind of force us to lynch an innocent.

But even if there were four votes to come it is not the end of the game. I'm not sure if the wolves would be too happy to vote in concerto toDay as they'd still need to manage it toMorrow...

Nogrod, the cobbler can sit back, wait and follow the wolves lead. They'd know each other toMorrow and be 4 against 3. It would be the end.

[skip spence]

Ozzy and Nogrod, now I know you are innocent. Go for Lottie!

[A Little Green]

Nogrod, the cobbler can sit back, wait and follow the wolves lead. They'd know each other toMorrow and be 4 against 3. It would be the end.How can you be so sure in your pessimistic scenario that the cobbler will see who the wolves are?

[Loslote]

Nogrod, the cobbler can sit back, wait and follow the wolves lead. They'd know each other toMorrow and be 4 against 3. It would be the end.

At the moment, I'm thinking either Boro or Nog is the cobbler, and I'm leaning towards Boro. Thought you ought to know.

Also, don't vote me. Mkay?

EDIT: x'd with Greenie

[skip spence]

Hold on, I miscounted, didn't I? There's still one baddie out there.

[Loslote]

How can you be so sure in your pessimistic scenario that the cobbler will see who the wolves are?

Well, it's not that hard to tell at the moment...just follow Skip's lead, ala Boro - who, you'll recall, wanted us to ignore Skip instead of lynching him.

[Ozban]

+ + Skip

Hope you're not ordo, you scared puppy.

[A Little Green]

Ozzy and Nogrod, now I know you are innocent. Go for Lottie!How do you "know" they are innocent? Because they haven't voted for you? Has it crossed your mind at all that an innocent might find your actions alarming too?


EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Boromir88]

Simple solution. Tie the vote between Lottie and Skip and let this go to a coin-flip. My heavens both are you are going to be the death of me.

[Nogrod]

Hold on, I miscounted, didn't I? There's still one baddie out there.What? :confused:

[Eönwë]

So it's make or break time.

Lottie or Skip, that's the question.

I've found Lottie suspicious the whole time, but toDay she looks a bit better, while with Skip it's the other way 'round.

[Eönwë]

How do you "know" they are innocent? Because they haven't voted for you? Has it crossed your mind at all that an innocent might find your actions alarming too?

I was just about to say that!

[Nogrod]

Okay. The last "appeals" by Skip - and the flood of votes - made it quite clear...

++ Skip

Let's see a wolf burn.

[skip spence]

I suppose the cobbler could be missing his mark, Greenie. But I doubt it.

And Nogrod and Eonwe are the remaining ordos...

[Nogrod]

A coin-toss, Boro, really? :smokin:

[Loslote]

Hold on, I miscounted, didn't I? There's still one baddie out there.

Actually, the fact that he forgot about Steve makes it less likely that they're packmates...

EDIT: x'd with a couple of Nogs and a Skip

[Eönwë]

Wilwa -> Lottie
Skip -> Greenie
Boro-> Lottie (2)
Greenie -> Skip
Zil -> Skip (2)
Lottie -> Skip (2)
Nog -> Skip (3)

[Nogrod]

Actually, the fact that he forgot about Steve makes it less likely that they're packmates...If you miss the number of baddies (the count, the number of them), how come you to a conclusion it was Steve he forgot? :eek:

Have I missed something?

[skip spence]

Argh! Still I don't regret it. I would have been lynched anyway had I not done my fake reveal, quite certain of that. But I am disappointed. If Wilwa had remained hidden we'd gotten a wolf today, or at least been in with a good chance of that. Now it's all over.

Good night!

[Eönwë]

Ok. That's it. If we go by toDay, with all the revelations and reactions, I think I have to say that:

++Skip

Looks the most evil of the two.

edit: x-ed since my last post.

[Nogrod]

Steve: Skip has four votes, not three...

EDIT: well five...

[skip spence]

And it's Holland 4 Sweden 0 :(

[A Little Green]

Argh! Still I don't regret it. I would have been lynched anyway had I not done my fake reveal, quite certain of that. But I am disappointed. If Wilwa had remained hidden we'd gotten a wolf today, or at least been in with a good chance of that. Now it's all over.

Good night!That's a little hypocritical - we failed your great scenario? I mean, what?

[Eönwë]

Steve: Skip has four votes, not three...

Oh yeah, sorry.

The final vote count:

Wilwa -> Lottie
Skip -> Greenie
Boro-> Lottie (2)
Greenie -> Skip
Zil -> Skip (2)
Lottie -> Skip (3)
Nog -> Skip (4)
Ozzy -> Skip (5)
Steve -> Skip (6)


edit: fixed voting again. Ironically.

[Ozban]

Did you counted mine?

P.S.: Boro's change of heart, from ignoring skip to coin-flipping is also worth of noting.

[Boromir88]

And it's Holland 4 Sweden 0 :(

At least I have something to be happy about today. :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

And it's Holland 4 Sweden 0 :(Well, Sweden beat Hungary 2-0, Finland lost to them 1-2 (they were the side that crearted the chances but Hungary made the goals on the few counterattacks).

And Finland has 0 points from three matches... :(

[Loslote]

If you miss the number of baddies (the count, the number of them), how come you to a conclusion it was Steve he forgot? :eek:

Have I missed something?

Because he previously said that you and Ozzy were the remaining ordos.

EDIT: x'd with Nog

[Eönwë]

Did you counted mine?
Maybe I'm not made for vote-counting. :o

[A Little Green]

Guys, cut the soccer, please. :D

[Nogrod]

Because he previously said that you and Ozzy were the remaining ordos.Okay... the old semantical mix between ordo and innocent. Got it now.

[Ozban]

Modest proposal: Could someone check Zil's analysis of me, and tell me if it's any convincing of my hairyness?

[Boromir88]

Modest proposal: Could someone check Zil's analysis of me, and tell me if it's any convincing of my hairyness?

How hairy exactly are you?

[Ozban]

That I crave to know. :D

[Nogrod]

Modest proposal: Could someone check Zil's analysis of me, and tell me if it's any convincing of my hairyness?If you don't know it yourself I'll be sure there will be people willing to help...

[Loslote]

Modest proposal: Could someone check Zil's analysis of me, and tell me if it's any convincing of my hairyness?

It's not the analysis that makes you look furry, Little One (:p;)). For me, it's your assumption that we're done.

Anyway, I would, but there's not enough time before DL.

EDIT: x'd since the post I quoted.

[Boromir88]

Guys, cut the soccer, please. :D

Please don't do that. It's good to have some down time now...and my Dutch peoples are winning! :p

[Eönwë]

Guys, cut the soccer, please. :D
It's not really an Elvish sport, is it?

That said... Oranje!

Not that I actually support the Netherlands...

[Ozban]

I give up, one of us is obviously "Somewhere far beyond" :)

[Nogrod]

And it is good to have this peaceful moment in the end for change - even if the future is unknown. Some light entertainment instead of panic and hassle for the last few minutes...

[Eönwë]

It's not the analysis that makes you look furry, Little One (:p;)). For me, it's your assumption that we're done.
Good point. I'm glad I didn't vote you toDay.

[Thinlómien]

It's deadline, laddies and gentlewomen, please stop posting. Skippety skip has been lynched, narration will follow.

[skip spence]

Well, congrats wolves! You did well but were damn lucky too!

Edit: xed with modess

[Thinlómien]

No posting after deadline, please.

[Thinlómien]

Always, someone has to go. Tonight, the Elves thought they had had enough of Skip's pining after Finduilas, the beautiful lady of Nargothrond. He himself, of course, called it courtly love.

"Besides, you cannot kill me, I'm a hunter!" he protested.
"We are all hunters," Greenie pointed out. "That's why were chosen for this expedition in the first place."
"But I am the hunter," Skip clarified.
"That you are not," said Wilwarin, coldly.
"No, I'm not," Skip admitted. "But I'm still an innocent man."
"I don't believe that," said Inziladun.
"Puppy eyes?" Skip tried, desperate.
"Puppy eyes? Does that mean you're a werewolf?" Lottie asked sharply.
"No! I'm innocent! Please believe me! Please! Don't let the wolves kill us all!" But no one believed him, of course.

Ozban and Nogrod grabbed Skip, ready to escort him to the edge of the crack in the floor.
"Please don't make me fall. Let me die in some other way, die like a man."
"There aren't many options," Eönwë said. "Unless you want to be stoned. There should be spare rocks around."

"Stoned...," sighed Skip.
"Like a stone I was before I first saw thee,
before thy sunlight set my soul free.
You are a maiden most beautiful,
to thee belongs my heart, so faithful.
Oh Finduilas! Thy beauty like the spring morning,
my heart full of love and yearning.
Oh Finduilas! Thy..."

"I say we get done with it," said Greenie and picked a stone. Hastily, Nogrod and Ozban retreated, and soon the air was full of flying stones, and Skip's poetry and burning love were silenced for ever.

When the last rock clattered on the floor the Elves finally saw Skip's remains. There wasn't much there, mostly blood and no trace of fur or anything else unordinary.


~*~



The Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - murdered in cold blood on Night1
Shastanis (seer) - cast to the pit in the pit on Day1
Pitch (ordo) - driven crazy and throttled in his fur scarf on Day2
Glirdan (ranger) - decapitated by a wolf's paw on Night3
Legate (ordo) - fell to the pit on Day3
Nerwen (ordo) - killed in a nightmare come true on Night4
Skip (ordo) - stoned by a mob disapproving of his poetry on Day4

The Living
Green - veteran hunter with a striking resemblance to an opossum
Boromir - incompetent gatewarden
Eönwë - hunter
Inziladun - weaponsmith
Loslote - young tag-along girl with frizzy hair
Nogrod - narcoleptic master-hunter
Ozban - young and naive hunter and admirer of Finrod Felagund
Wilwarin - hunter


Night5 has started. Wolves, feel free to conspire. Hunter, feel free to hunt. Others, please sleep.

[Thinlómien]

Green had trouble sleeping. She had always been a light sleeper, quick to wake up to the changes of weather or movements of animals around her. It was a good quality for a hunter and something she had never been disturbed by. In this place, though, it just turned the nights worse.

She knew the unnatural darkness was swallowing all sound but if she tried really hard, she could almost hear gnarling whispers or soft sounds of wolf paws. She could not locate the sounds, but little help that would've been to her: she was a hunter, yes, but they had taken her bow and her beautiful knives and now she was unarmed on hostile ground and would be no match for three wolves. She was afraid.

As a veteran hunter she knew fear was something that kept you alive, but here it only kept her awake. She was tired during the days and when she managed to fall asleep she succumbed to wild and restless nightmares which always made her wake up before long. She wished she could just have sleep, a few hours of honest Elvish sleep in enchanted paths full of comforting twilight, but she was denied that pleasure. Only half awake she felt only half alive and she could never figure out how to get out of here.

Again, she heard the voices in the dark. As hard as it was to her instincts hardened by the years, she ignored them. No good came out of listening to them. By now she knew they meant someone would most likely be found dead in the morning - no use trying to guess who it would be this night. She felt a coward in hoping it would not be her although death would finally release her from this torment in the dark.

"Little opossum..." whispered a voice very close to her left ear. She jerked away from it, horrified that they had come up so close without her noticing it. "Are you not sleepy tonight?" the voice asked.
"Watch your language, kid," old Green said harshly. She knew her death was approaching and it made her cold, rational. And although she knew her resemblance to the small marsupial, she definitely would not have strangers making jokes about it.
There was a snarling sound. Green didn't know if it was a laugh or a threat. Maybe both.
"Little opossum will be eaten tonight..." whispered another voice, now by her right ear.
"And our hunger will be satisfied," said a third voice, in front of her.
"Three against one, how fair," Green remarked.
"What is fairness?" asked the first voice. "Where was fairness when we were chosen to become these beasts and you were not?"
Green did not answer.
"There is no fairness here. No good, no hope, no life. Only death," said the second voice.
"Get on with it, then," Green said quietly. With one leap, a wolf was on her, pressing its sharp white teeth into her neck. Within seconds, she was torn to pieces and savoured by the three beasts.

When the Elves woke up, it was almost as dark as during the night. They couldn't see a thing, and only by making a roll call did they find out Green was missing. They never found her remains if there were any.


~*~


The Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - murdered in cold blood on Night1
Shastanis (seer) - cast to the pit in the pit on Day1
Pitch (ordo) - driven crazy and throttled in his fur scarf on Day2
Glirdan (ranger) - decapitated by a wolf's paw on Night3
Legate (ordo) - fell to the pit on Day3
Nerwen (ordo) - killed in a nightmare come true on Night4
Skip (ordo) - stoned by a mob disapproving of his poetry on Day4
Green (ordo) - eaten by hungry wolves on Night5

The Living
Boromir - incompetent gatewarden
Eönwë - hunter
Inziladun - weaponsmith
Loslote - young tag-along girl with frizzy hair
Nogrod - narcoleptic master-hunter
Ozban - young and naive hunter and admirer of Finrod Felagund
Wilwarin - hunter


Day5 has started. Feel free to talk, but wolves stop PMing. Hunter, you may change your pick anytime.

[Inziladun]

I am one of the wolves. My fellows are Eönwë and Nogrod. We, and you, can win this toDay. All you have to do is vote for Boro, Lottie, or Ozban, and it's ours.

[Nogrod]

Wicked! :eek::cool::rolleyes:

So cobbler, here's the deal.

Me and my mates Inzil and Steve would like to invite you to win the game.

So pick one of those innocents who is not you and vote her/him.

Here's the list:

Boro
Lottie
Ozban


Do not vote for wilwa or any of us.

We'll follow your vote.


You played well and Sauron will appreciate it - like we do.

[Eönwë]

Inziladun is correct. He, Nogrod and I are the wolves. Vote for Boro, Lottie, or Ozban and we shall take this village.

edit: x-ed with my fellow. Do as he says.

[Boromir88]

Did someone call for their cobbler? *Raises hand...erm shoe*

Will today be a lame duck day? I would prefer actually not to die, since I think I've been such a lovely cobbler for you three. (The only one I had down as a wolf though was Nog, I'm afraid). After Skip's stunt I thought for sure he was a wolf, and you saw my desperate attempts to save him. So, I went for the one person I thought was most likely NOT a wolf (aside from the hunter of course) and that was Lottie. :p I'm so evil.

However, I am here to do your 3's will...if it is to self vote and die, so be it. Yay!

[Nogrod]

Boro: just vote one of you three innocent ordo's.

You can pick your choice: Ozban (it would be memorable to him to die this way in his first ww-game!!!) or Lottie. Or if you prefer a self vote... be our guest.

Heh, I was quite confident you were the cobbler. Skip looked so much like a wolf and you didn't vote him yesterDay - and all that talk about preferring dices... :cool:

Thanks Skip, btw. :D

[Boromir88]

Good point about Ozban.

++Ozban

[Nogrod]

But I can tell you it was not that easy...

I read through the previous Day and tried to search for any hints to us as to who is the cobbler - as I thought s/he'd had to try to give us something to not kill her/him last Night.

And there was so little... except you Boro. But then again you would be exactly the person who could pull that off trying to look like the cobbler to us so as to heighten the possibilities of us hitting the real cobbler by Night... :rolleyes:

But there was little the others offered - and they all voted for Skip. And that I think sealed it in the end.


X'posted...

++ Ozban

Hey, good game Ozban! Fine performance for someone who hasn't played before!


EDIT: I'm off for a moment but will be back seeing how this... :p

[wilwarin538]

No, I'm the real cobbler....

[wilwarin538]

Thanks Skip, btw. :D

Gah, I'm so mad at him right now. And at you and Boro for actually convincing me to come forward. I should have followed my gut and stayed quiet. :rolleyes:

I'm never listening to anything you boys say ever again. Just so you know. ;)

[Boromir88]

Nog, hehe I just didn't know what clues to leave. The first couple days I just kind of stayed back, not wanting to get a wolf lynch. I wavered on what to do about Pitch because I thought he was going to be the clear lynch for the day. Then when I saw his reaction that looked like a defeated innocent who realized he had no choice because of Shasta's suspicions, it was ok to go ahead and lynch him.

My comments about me imagining Nog was smirking the entire time behind your computer were true, and I hoped you would at least realize if I wasn't the cobbler, you'd really think I'd just let that go and not unleash an all out assault to see you lynched? :p Anyway, after I was thorougly convinced you were one of the wolves, I just thought I'd follow your lead and then sacrifice when needed. Thought that opportunity was yesterday, because I thought Skip was a wolf and if he was, then the other 2 wolves should know I'm the cobbler. As it turns out though, yes I can see how it was a difficult thing to figure out?

I was wavering about Inzil, wolf or not could have gone either way. That's why I asked you towards the end of the day what you wanted to do with the lynch. I wanted to give you an "I trust you nod," but at the time was operating under the assumption Skip was a wolf, and I was still unsure about you so decided not to follow.

Aww wilwa! :( Nice try, but it's too late. :p

[Eönwë]

No, I'm the real cobbler....

If you hadn't revealed, that would've been such a good move.

Oh, and

++Ozban

[wilwarin538]

Aww wilwa! :(

Haha. I've decided I still love you guys. ;)

Well, this is well deserved. I really felt quite good about all 4 of you, so I have to say I'm surprised all of you are evil, I was sure either Greenie or Lottie had to be, and I was prepared for Ozzy to be one just because he was so good for his first game, I started to wonder if he was getting some guidance behind the scenes.

And it's my own fault for revealing, though I have to say I would have felt better if Skip was evil, cause him being innocent just really makes me feel silly. :rolleyes:

[Inziladun]

Is this my cue?

++Ozban

[Inziladun]

And well done, Boro! I was wavering about your being the Cobbler because you didn't seem that enthusiastic about helping Pitch. But your help in flushing out the Hunter was very much appreciated. ;)

[wilwarin538]

My useless vote then

++Nogorozilwe

:p

[Nogrod]

Love you wilwa!

EDIT: Believe it or not, but this was a crosspost!!!

[Nogrod]

Boro: I really thought I screwed up massively after we killed Glirdan-ranger and you pointed it out. Your answer to my improvised explanation was something along the lines "Enough for me on that subject". That was a place I thought you might be the cobbler. I had kind of forgotten that, but when it came down to finding our cobbler for real, your quickness to point that out worried me a bit: like you had the nerves to keep it quiet and then throwing us those cobbler hints yesterDay to just unleash everything toDay! Playing the "all or nothing" as you claimed when voting Lottie... :)

PS. To those who don't remember, I'm referring to my first post of that Day when I added there that it's intersting how the wolves went to Glirdy and not after the "innocent Nerwen"... :rolleyes:

Of course we knew why we went after him, he was the ranger, and it was quite easy to see with our knowledge. But I tried to be as one with no clue hoping someone else would come up with the explanation... I was in a hurry as the TV-show was starting and I only added it when I almost had submitted the reply already... Never make last second additions to your posts! (ww-handbook, rule 5; §17) :D

[Loslote]

So, I went for the one person I thought was most likely NOT a wolf (aside from the hunter of course) and that was Lottie. :p I'm so evil.

Could I point out that I KNEW IT? I can? Yay. :p But yeah, I guessed Boro for cobbler end of yesterDay. This consoles me somewhat, as, other than you and Steve, I totally flubbed with wolf-hunting this game. :rolleyes:

++Skip

Again, because I still don't know what he was doing yesterDay.

[Ozban]

Checkmate! :(

This is the end
My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end
Of everything that stands, the end
The end of laughter and soft lies
The end of nights we tried to die
This is the end.

[Ozban]

Anyway, we're not dead yet...

++Inzil

[Ozban]

Hey, good game Ozban! Fine performance for someone who hasn't played before!



Not really good at all, since you won. ;)

I suspected Inzil at times, I was almost sure about him after he posted his Ozban-analysis. But never really suspected Nog nor Eonwe. Waaay too tricky. But I enjoyed the game.

Later...

[Inziladun]

Not really good at all, since you won. ;)

I suspected Inzil at times, I was almost sure about him after he posted his Ozban-analysis. But never really suspected Nog nor Eonwe. Waaay too tricky. But I enjoyed the game.

Hey, I thought my analysis was reasonable enough. I fully intended to push hard for your lynch if we'd killed the Cobbler. :p

And I'd like to echo those saying you really did very well for your first game. You didn't seem like a newbie at all.