WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Thinlómien]

"As your king, I do not forbid you to go. But as your friend, I advise you not to."
Lady Thinlómien looked up at Finrod Felgund, king of Nargothrond, a little defiantly.
"But Celegorm and Curufin are not hunting wolves. Soon they'll be running amok ever closer to Nargothrond." The words came out as an accusation although that was not the Lady's intention.
"They are your kinsmen, Thinlómien, and although I am their king they are their own lords and may hunt as they will."
"Then I will go, in their stead."
"My heart is heavy. I see only darkness ahead of you and those who may go with you."
Thinlómien knelt before him. Gently, she said: "Somebody has to go and stop the hounds of Sauron. Let me go, my king."
"Go then, friend. Anar kalúva tielyanna."

So Lady Thinlómien went and chose the fourteen best hunters of her household. Among them were her three childhood friends; the Four Singers they had been called in the West though few now remembered it. They accepted her invitations gravely, the one who sang great songs of growth and warding, the one to whom songs came in dreams and the singer who was even more fiery in spirit than Lady Thinlómien herself. Foreseeing an unknown evil, she asked her friends to keep their gifts in secret and use them only in the direst need.

So they set out, Thinlómien and the best hunters of her household and a dozen friends of hers. Once they had set out of the gates of Nargothrond, they were joined by Huan, the mighty hound of Thinlómien's kinsman Celegorm, who hunted even when his master chose not to.

Days they travelled in the wildernesses and desolate lands, bordering ever closer to the dreadful isle of Tol-in-Gaurhoth which had once been the beautiful fortress of Minas Tirith. They hunted down and slew many wolves, until they were waylaid by the great wolf Draugluin and a host of wargs and orcs. The Elves fought valiantly, but they were overpowered and instead of killing them, the enemies sought to take them captive. The noble hound Huan slew many wolves but before he could engage in a fight with their leader, Thinlómien turned to him and spoke: "Huan, you loyal friend! Flee now that you still can and take tidings of our fate to Nargothrond. Your fate lies still ahead of you while our path darkens. Go, there is no hope in this fight!" The wise hound bowed his head and reluctantly he slipped to the growing darkness and ran away.

Lady Thinlómien and those who remained of her folk - seven hunters; Eönwë and Wilwarin, solitary Shastanis, impatient Nerwen, young Ozban, old Green and the sleepy master Nogrod, Pitch the Furrier, the jeweller Legate and the weaponsmith Inziladun, Boromir the Gatewarden, Glirdan the Scholar, Skip who seeked to impress the Lady Finduilas and the youth Loslote who had pleaded to come along - were made captive and taken to the Tol-in-Gaurhoth, Isle of Werewolves.

They were taken to Sauron, the right hand of the Enemy and a lord of werewolves. He questioned them and wanted to know who they were and what they were doing. The Elves refused to tell him anything, and only when he threatened to torture her folk did Lady Thinlómien tell him who they were and what was their mission. And Sauron laughed, for he was pleased.
"Hunters of wolves, you say. Then I will save your lives - if you go to the north and steal the cubs of the dire wolves there and bring them to me to raise, I will save your lives and you can live here as respected servants of a mighty lord."
"We will never serve the dark!" Lady Thinlómien burst out.
"That we will see. Take the Elves to the dungeons and torture them to see if they yield. If they don't, take them to the pits and my wolves will devour them one by one until they do."
"You will not do this to me and my people! We will never yield!"
Sauron laughed again and angered by his mockery, Lady Thinlómien wove a great song into which she put all her power and all her love for the beautiful things of this world and of the world in the West and sought to bring the light of the other side into the dark castle. Threatened, Sauron wove his own song, and a mighty singer was he indeed. The love and beauty he destroyed with hate and cruelty and the light with a never-ending darkness. So was the Elven Lady's song shattered and broken, she was taken to the dungeons and her fourteen companions were taken with her.

Long they were tortured by Sauron's servants, but none of them faltered, none would give in. Enraged, Sauron took three of them and with a great spell of evil, destroyed all that was good in their minds and left only the vilest thoughts and darkest desires. Then he cloaked them in hides of great wolves. "You belong to me now. Every night, you shall slay one of them until they give in to me or until only you, my loyal ones, remain. You know who to start with."

By ill luck the most faint-hearted of Lady Thinlómien's folk happened to hear these words in the pit where she was shackled. A great despair settled on her and she knew there was no other chance for her to survive this than to give in to the Enemy. She begged him to take her as his servant but he scorned her and asked: "Why should I take as mine the most cowardly?" And she cried, shamed, and wished to die. There was only one path out of this for her now: to try to find the three the Lord of Werewolves had changed and gain their sympathy.

When night finally fell, all the Elves were taken to the deepest and darkest of all the dungeons on the isle. There the lay in quiet dread until they fell asleep.

~*~

Night 1 has now begun. Wolves, you may PM with each other. Seer, you may send me your first dream. Hunter, if you for some weird reason want to make a pick toNight, you are allowed to do so.

~*~

The Player List
A Little Green - veteran hunter with a striking resemblance to an opossum
Boromir88 - incompetent gatewarden
Eönwë - hunter
Glirdan - local batty scholar
Inziladun - weaponsmith
Legate of Amon Lanc - jeweller with an affinity to the colour white
Loslote - young tag-along girl with frizzy hair
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter who makes animal statues of wood and likes the colour green
Nogrod - narcoleptic master-hunter
Ozban - young and naive hunter and admirer of Finrod Felagund
Pitchwife - furrier
Shastanis Althreduin - orphan solitary hunter who moves silently, likes blue and has a pet snake
skip spence - an admirer of Finduilas's
wilwarin538 - hunter


The Admin Thread with the Rules (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=16861)

[Thinlómien]

It was pitch dark in the pit and all the sounds were muffled by the suffocating pressure that lay in the air. The three whose wills had been taken by the lord of wolves seeked each other out at the secret gate that led out of the pit. Now in their wolf skins they exchanged a few words - almost gnarls - and let their canine noses take them to her who was to die tonight.

Lady Thinlómien was not asleep and she could hear their soft paws on the stone floor. She sat up erect, looking up to where the sky and the stars should've been but where there was only black. She knew they were coming for her, but there was no strength left in her, she was all spent by the brief and terrible contest of wills with the dark so much beyond her power.

A warm wave of foul breath touched her face.
"So you have come," she said.
"Yes," whispered one of them.
"There are no words for the horror that befell you. I pity you," she said. She had heard their torture and had been unable to stop it. "The Eldar do not take their own lives willingly, but maybe you should do it this once."
"We are no Eldar. We are wolves now," said another of the foreign voices.
"Who were you?" Thinlómien said softly. Her voice was barely more than a whisper.
"We have no names now," said a third voice, and the first one said: "Not in the dark."
"Do what you came to do, then," Thinlómien said sharply. "There might be no hope for me anymore, but there will be hope for others."
"Hope? There is no hope in this place," said the second voice and with one graceful movement a wolf's claw across her throat, lady Thinlómien lay dead in the cold dungeon.

The wolves retreated and resumed their places along the walls of the pit. Slowly they drifted to dreamless sleep.

The Ranger, as she had once been called jokingly by her friends who were greatly amused of her protectivity, did not sleep that night. Something horrible was happening, she knew, but there was no way for her to stop it, not yet. Quietly she sang a great song of growth and warding until her hair reached to her toes. Then she told it to come off and made a great dark net out of it and wove all her strength as threads to a pattern of protection. All night she worked with her net of warding and when dawn finally came, she hid it among the shadows that crawled along the walls.

The Seer, as she had once been nicknamed by her childhood friend Thinlómien, did sleep. Among the nightmares of the terrible Isle of Werewolves, she forced the music of her dreams bring before her eyes the heart of one of her companions to see if there was evil there. When she woke up, she knew.

The Hunter, so called because she was the most courageous and cunning of all the hunters captured, was the first one to detect the faintest trace of sunlight in the air, invincibly streaming from a tiny crack in the roof. The light fell on the body of her friend, Lady Thinlómien. With a few quick steps she was with her and she knew she couldn't do anything to save her friend. So she only reached for the dead woman's boot and to her staisfaction, she noticed her friend had done as she had told her to do and hidden a dagger there. They had not dared to search the Lady as they had searched the Hunter herself and all the others. Gently, the Hunter closed her friend's eyes and kissed the dagger. "You will revenge," she whispered. Then she hid it in her own boot.

"Dawn is here," she said loudly. "And our courageous Lady is no more. It's time to wake up and find the culprits. I, for one, would have a word with them."

Slowly, the Elves opened their eyes to see it was not pitch dark anymore, only dark. For a while they saw the vague shape of a tall Elf standing in amidst the shadows but soon she had disappeared and blended with the rest of them. All the Elves huddled together and after a moment of quiet, one of them spoke.

~*~

Day1 has started! Wolves, stop PMing. Hunter, you may send a pick any time you want. Everybody, you may talk on this thread now.

The Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - murdered in cold blood on Night1

The Living
Green - veteran hunter with a striking resemblance to an opossum
Boromir - incompetent gatewarden
Eönwë - hunter
Glirdan - local batty scholar
Inziladun - weaponsmith
Legate - jeweller with an affinity to the colour white
Loslote - young tag-along girl with frizzy hair
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter who makes animal statues of wood and likes the colour green
Nogrod - narcoleptic master-hunter
Ozban - young and naive hunter and admirer of Finrod Felagund
Pitch - furrier
Shastanis - orphan solitary hunter who moves silently, likes blue and has a pet snake
Skip - an admirer of Finduilas's
Wilwarin - hunter

[Nogrod]

How about everyone just uncloaked and we could be done with it by judging on the hairyness of everyone...

Oh, no, you say? Well, let's talk then. Although it looks like a basic set up by Sauron, and so most of the dynamics-issues will be quite down-to-earth and familiar from our previous training-sessions.

So let's talk. After I finish my little C.S.I. nap... *falls down in narcolepsy*

[Boromir88]

How about everyone just uncloaked and we could be done with it by judging on the hairyness of everyone...


You had me at "let's get uncloaked"...now what? :p

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

How can we hope to defeat this terrible darkness, which douses all light, even if Lady Thinlómien could not? But we shall not let the darkness prevail, at least! As long as there is light in the world outside, as long as there is beauty of skill, creation and art, we have to stand against those soulless beasts in our midst. Even if we don't have the victory against the Dark One, we will not give up hope!

It is true what Nogrod said here, that we are lucky for no drastic twists which sometimes come from the minds of those who set-up such schemes as the one we have gotten ourselves into... If there is anything that troubles me now, it is the selection of people, because basically all of you, my friends, are the ones I consider of the most bold and clever, in one way or another, and I would not like any of you to be on the side of evil...

Nonetheless... to stir some discussion... there is only one "unusual" thing at most (or slightly unusual, as it mostly appears in such settings anyway, but sometimes not), and that is the traitor in our midst... who, although hasn't been mentioned in the nightly events, is among us, as is said elsewhere... generally I do not deem such person dangerous (here a possible stir for discussion?) by itself, but a thing to consider for example if any of our Gifted friends (especially the Seer) decided to come out, it is quite likely that e.g. this traitor - Cobbler - might do lots of things to create trouble, and one of these things is pretending to be a Seer or something like that (as it has happened many times in the past)... so if this happened, the contested Seer or whoever should be careful about it and judge for him/herself whether it is wise to contest the fake-Seer's claim or not at that point... I mean, I am not so worried about Cobbler revealing in such a way, because if he/she fakes a Seer and says "X is a wolf, lynch him" and we listen to him/her, then soon we will know whether he/she is lying or not...

I am saying, I believe, quite obvious, or easily recognisable things, but then, it is not so obvious, and just in case... and also, like I said, it's Day 1. We don't have any lead to start with, we should stir some discussion. So let's do it, so that by the end of the Day we can have some idea whom to vote...

We can, of course, discuss anything and I hope this will only be one pinch which will help this not to be a quiet and random Day 1. :)

I am going to hang around with you for a while yet, but I am probably soon going to join Nogrod in some sleep... nonetheless hope to see the discussion happening once I come back later on.

[Inziladun]

How about everyone just uncloaked and we could be done with it by judging on the hairyness of everyone...

As long as there is no uncloaking in the manner of Olórin in the West. :eek:

Nonetheless... to stir some discussion... there is only one "unusual" thing at most (or slightly unusual, as it mostly appears in such settings anyway, but sometimes not), and that is the traitor in our midst... who, although hasn't been mentioned in the nightly events, is among us, as is said elsewhere... generally I do not deem such person dangerous (here a possible stir for discussion?)

Though this person acts only during the Day and isn't as dangerous as the foul wolves of Sauron, they shall certainly be aiding evil whenever they can. We must take care not to dismiss them as a lesser threat if they are identified.

but a thing to consider for example if any of our Gifted friends (especially the Seer) decided to come out, it is quite likely that e.g. this traitor - Cobbler - might do lots of things to create trouble, and one of these things is pretending to be a Seer or something like that (as it has happened many times in the past)... so if this happened, the contested Seer or whoever should be careful about it and judge for him/herself whether it is wise to contest the fake-Seer's claim or not at that point... I mean, I am not so worried about Cobbler revealing in such a way, because if he/she fakes a Seer and says "X is a wolf, lynch him" and we listen to him/her, then soon we will know whether he/she is lying or not...

Such has ever been the case. It is for those Gifteds to guard themselves and their knowledge well, and not to be drawn out by the words of the false.

[Nogrod]

I was already letting my paranoic-self loose while listening to our Jeweler here saying how easy it would be to get rid of the cobbler - so something like a masterplan in the works from the get-go?

But as I went checking back into the rules to find out whether my idea was right and the cobbler doesn't know the identity of the wolves (which would mean a cobbler might falsely reveal and hit a wolf thus making us believe her/him for a moment - the problem being it could draw our seer into the open earlier s/he wanted), I actually stumbled on a more important issue I had forgotten.

The seer gets the identity of the cobbler this time for sure - so by playing the "revealment-card" the cobbler can at best distract us for one lynching (or another if the seer is really cold-blooded and thinks it wise in the general balance of the game), but s/he will be known to be the cobbler by the seer the next Night - which should hold the cobbler's willingness in check to try and meddle in that way...

It doesn't take away the chance the cobbler might fool us for one Day, but it will sure mean the cobbler will ensure s/he will walk to the gallows pretty soon if s/he's trying to pull out that kind of trick. I mean in a basic scenario, an ordinary elf could try to do the trick to save the seer and we'd be insecure if the seer just later said s/he is "an innocent". But in this game the cobbler will be seen as a cobbler by the seer.

So in the end I tend to agree with our Jeweler of Amon Lanc that the cobbler isn't that much of a threat (until the end of the game of course, if alive that is) - or someone we should try to go for in the first Days as our main target. So let's keep the wolves as our main targets and not get distracted with the cobbler-talk. I'm okay with lynching the cobbler anytime we have good reasons to believe someone is the cobbler and we have no idea who the wolves are - but on other situations, like having some credible suspicions on wolvery, especially early in the game, let's stick to hunting the wolves.

EDIT: X'd with Inzil

[Pitchwife]

How about everyone just uncloaked and we could be done with it by judging on the hairyness of everyone...
Indeed, I marvel at your audacity in suggesting such a thing, Master Nogrod. Holy Elbereth, there are ladies among us, and one of them a young maiden! Have you no decency?

If there is anything that troubles me now, it is the selection of people, because basically all of you, my friends, are the ones I consider of the most bold and clever, in one way or another, and I would not like any of you to be on the side of evil...
Flattery will get you nowhere.:p

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences. Now as you are no doubt aware, the best way for such a fake claimant to fool us would be to sacrifice a real wolf in order to gain our trust, and the cobbler is in no position to do that, even if they were willing to, being as much in the dark as to the wolves' identity as we are. They might, of course, get a wolf lynched by mistake, deeming said wolf innocent, but then that would ill save the evil side. Therefore I don't think the danger of a cobbler fake-revealing very high, considering all sides. A wolf doing it, however, would be quite a different matter, as they could use their knowledge of who is furry and who isn't to lend credibility to their pretended dreams.

On the other hand, the cobbler, or a wolf, might still risk it in the hope to thus draw out the true Seer for the wolves to kill, as you seem to be considering here:
so if this happened, the contested Seer or whoever should be careful about it and judge for him/herself whether it is wise to contest the fake-Seer's claim or not at that point...
This is a two-edged blade. A false claim that is uncontested for too long and not disproven by mislynchings might be believed over a delayed counter-reveal... I think there are precedences to that in the histories, too. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, and in the meantime I trust in the wisdom of our
Seer to handle these matters without our prompting.

(x-ed with Zil and Nogrod)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

The seer gets the identity of the cobbler this time for sure - so by playing the "revealment-card" the cobbler can at best distract us for one lynching (or another if the seer is really cold-blooded and thinks it wise in the general balance of the game), but s/he will be known to be the cobbler by the seer the next Night - which should hold the cobbler's willingness in check to try and meddle in that way...

It doesn't take away the chance the cobbler might fool us for one Day, but it will sure mean the cobbler will ensure s/he will walk to the gallows pretty soon if s/he's trying to pull out that kind of trick. I mean in a basic scenario, an ordinary elf could try to do the trick to save the seer and we'd be insecure if the seer just later said s/he is "an innocent". But in this game the cobbler will be seen as a cobbler by the seer.

That is indeed true! Well good to have realised that. This way, the cobbler-threat gets a lot smaller, although still of course we should not dismiss it... but yes, well. This also answers dear our dear Pitchfurrier's doubts (at least those concerning Cobblers - I definitely share his concerns about the uncloaking plan!)... my concern was just general, knowing such things might occur. Of course, if a fake-Gifted proved to be a nuisance, there would have been the need for radical turn, but fortunately indeed, the Seer can always dream of him/her. Even if it meant losing a Night of when he/she could have dreamed of a real Wolf - but I think it would depend on the situation whether it's affordable or not, and anyway, a person going around and saying he or she is the Seer should not be left unchecked, just for the sake of the village. And he/she might even be a Wolf him/herself, and not just a Cobbler (that is also one very, very important point to bear in mind!). Anyway, I guess the conclusion is: if somebody comes out claiming that he or she is something and is not, then the real person should not be too hasty, hum hom, as one of my very, very, very old friends used to say...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I am saying, I believe, quite obvious, or easily recognisable things, but then, it is not so obvious, and just in case... and also, like I said, it's Day 1. We don't have any lead to start with, we should stir some discussion. So let's do it, so that by the end of the Day we can have some idea whom to vote...
It's true, you are, and this very trait is what led me to think you evil when last we met. However, given that you've said that you're stirring up the rest of us here... I believe I'm okay with you, for now, Legate.

In other news, I'm finding something slightly off about Pitch. He's only made one post thus far, but as I read it there were points at which I felt he was being awfully... well, the pun is inevitable... agreeable. :p

[Nogrod]

If there is anything that troubles me now, it is the selection of people, because basically all of you, my friends, are the ones I consider of the most bold and clever, in one way or another, and I would not like any of you to be on the side of evil...
Flattery will get you nowhere.:pRight on spot Pitch. I paused at that while reading but got carried away by the cobbler-speculation... (but it did feed to my paranoia at the first read) The wolves will try to be nice and friendly. The innocents will be brutal and openly attacking people (hopefully). The wolves would love "friendliness-based lottery" of votes, while we innocents need to find out who the honey-tongued villains are.

Although I'm not too sure that quote merits as a reason to suspect Legate as you could read it as an IC comment as well.

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences.It depends on what is the definition of a "succesful false reveal". The cobblers - or wolves - doing a false reveal tend to die rather quick, but sometimes they have carried the game by that one or two Day delay they manage to create... So it is a real possibility, and a real threat.

But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, and in the meantime I trust in the wisdom of our Seer to handle these matters without our prompting.As I said earlier, let's go for any signs of wolvery for now, toDay, toMorrow... if we get a good hunch on a cobbler and if we are totally baffled with the wolves, let's then try to lynch the cobbler (it might be a wolf trying to act like a cobbler as well, not an unheard of scenario either).

It is good to note all suspicious acting - but that of the gifteds (there are such a number of sad examples). The gifteds should stay calm...

EDIT: X'd with Legate & Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It depends on what is the definition of a "succesful false reveal". The cobblers - or wolves - doing a false reveal tend to die rather quick, but sometimes they have carried the game by that one or two Day delay they manage to create... So it is a real possibility, and a real threat.

Oh, I can think of one off the top of my head... isn't that right, Boromir88? :p

[Pitchwife]

I was already letting my paranoic-self loose while listening to our Jeweler here saying how easy it would be to get rid of the cobbler - so something like a masterplan in the works from the get-go?
Sorry, I somehow completely fail to see where, in the speech of his you're replying to here, Legate said anything about a masterplan to get rid of the cobbler, or the easiness thereof, and what about that would make you paranoic. Care to enlighten me?

Unfortunately, dear friends, the time has come for me now to seek such sleep as may be found in this foul dungeon, and it will be a while ere I'll be able to rejoin the discourse. May the Valar aid you in your search for truth!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Right on spot Pitch. I paused at that while reading but got carried away by the cobbler-speculation... (but it did feed to my paranoia at the first read) The wolves will try to be nice and friendly. The innocents will be brutal and openly attacking people (hopefully). The wolves would love "friendliness-based lottery" of votes, while we innocents need to find out who the honey-tongued villains are.

Although I'm not too sure that quote merits as a reason to suspect Legate as you could read it as an IC comment as well.
It was partially in-character, but it was also stating the truth, although it was rather random: just if I put it in other words, the list of players does not look encouraging - in these numbers, whichever way the Wolf-team is built, there definitely is somebody really nasty, and I think we only miss the Saucepan Man and Roa for the fray.

As I said earlier, let's go for any signs of wolvery for now, toDay, toMorrow... if we get a good hunch on a cobbler and if we are totally baffled with the wolves, let's then try to lynch the cobbler (it might be a wolf trying to act like a cobbler as well, not an unheard of scenario either).
I am definitely for going for Wolves in general. And I think nobody ever said anything about going after a Cobbler. Cobbler should be ignored, ignored, ignored (as one Red Elf once used to say), but the point was to make sure the Gifteds don't do, hum hom, anything hasty.

EDIT: crossposted with Shasta and Pitch
EDITEDIT: And since I just looked at the clock and became horrified by the vision of the length of my sleep, I shall leave ye too... see you later...

[Nerwen]

Nerwen, as was her habit in idle moments, reached automatically for her knife so that she might do some carving, before remembering that their weapons had been taken from them, and that here there was no wood for her to whittle into the shape of soaring eagles or running stags. Without anything to occupy them, her hands felt strangely empty.

Master Nogrod had chided her many times for her inability to keep still– a serious defect in a Hunter. Now, unable to contain her restlessness, she rose and paced up and down the dank stone cell, thanking any Power that might still be looking out for the hapless Noldor that the cruel Sorcerer had, so far, neglected to chain them to the wall. That was something.

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences. Now as you are no doubt aware, the best way for such a fake claimant to fool us would be to sacrifice a real wolf in order to gain our trust, and the cobbler is in no position to do that, even if they were willing to, being as much in the dark as to the wolves' identity as we are. They might, of course, get a wolf lynched by mistake, deeming said wolf innocent, but then that would ill save the evil side. Therefore I don't think the danger of a cobbler fake-revealing very high, considering all sides. A wolf doing it, however, would be quite a different matter, as they could use their knowledge of who is furry and who isn't to lend credibility to their pretended dreams.

You seem to assume that this "Cobbler" person– how terrible to think there's treachery among us! Though, perhaps, hardly surprising. *sigh* It seems the Doom of Mandos will dog our people to the end of days... –Where was I? Oh yes. You seem to assume that the traitor, not to mention those of us whose souls have been taken by the accursed Lord of Wolves, would reveal only as the Seer. Why should that be?

I am definitely for going for Wolves in general. And I think nobody ever said anything about going after a Cobbler. Cobbler should be ignored, ignored, ignored (as one Red Elf once used to say), but the point was to make sure the Gifteds don't do, hum hom, anything hasty.
Nay, for this traitor may yet be a great help to the wolves in the end.

EDIT: typo.

[Inziladun]

I am definitely for going for Wolves in general. And I think nobody ever said anything about going after a Cobbler. Cobbler should be ignored, ignored, ignored (as one Red Elf once used to say), but the point was to make sure the Gifteds don't do, hum hom, anything hasty.

Nay, for this traitor may yet be a great help to the wolves in the end.

Indeed, yes, Nerwen. The traitor ought not be our greatest concern, but ignored? That would be unwise.

[Loslote]

I do believe I shall display the traditional youth's habit of sleeping in for remarkable lengths of time...and hopefully (*crosses fingers*) the traditional youth's habit of being awake late into the evening.

As for the Cobbler, I'd say ignore xem for now. If they want to false reveal, let them have fun, and then let them go "oh. Right. I'm dead now". Other than false revealing, I don't think they'll be all that much trouble until later on, so using up a lynch on them wouldn't be the best option.

Besides, how else are we going to make sure Boro's a wolf than letting him kill off the Cobbler during the Night? :p

[wilwarin538]

A Cobbler that doesn't know who the wolves are and can be detected by the Seer is really not that huge of a threat, until the end of the game when their vote can do harm. So I'm not overly concerned about them at the moment. Hopefully the wolves get him, I always love it when that happens. ;)



It depends on what is the definition of a "succesful false reveal". The cobblers - or wolves - doing a false reveal tend to die rather quick, but sometimes they have carried the game by that one or two Day delay they manage to create... So it is a real possibility, and a real threat.


A false reveal could potentially even end up helping us. I remember my only game as a cobbler I false revealed as the ranger and ended up accidently giving away who a wolf was and helping the village win. :rolleyes: But I suppose that's a rare occurence...

And about reveals in general. I think the only time a Seer should reveal are the following: a) they have a wolf, b) they are in danger of being lynched and have info and have not left any useful hints, or c) close to the end of the game, where even known innocents could come in handy. A time that the Seer should not reveal: a) when someone false reveals, since it'll be obvious they're lying eventually, so please don't give yourself away or b) just for the fun of it. :rolleyes:

I'm ok with a Ranger reveal if they are in danger of being lynched, and pretty much only then. I'm never ok with a Hunter reveal, since that defeats the whole purpose of the role, being that death is when they do their special thing, and since an innocent can't die with them when they are lynched (right?) then risk of lynch is not a valid reason to reveal. That's just my opinion.

Anyway, off to bed. I should be on randomly in the morning. I have a dentist appointment that ends very close to DL, so I may vote early just to be on the safe side.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

and since an innocent can't die with them when they are lynched (right?) then risk of lynch is not a valid reason to reveal.

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

Will comment on others momentarily.

[Loslote]

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

Her point still stands, though - the Hunter should not reveal. Well, except for that one time with Mira, but that was special (and annoying! :rolleyes::p).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, I entirely agree with Nerwen on the subject of the cobbler, and disagree with Legate - in no instance should the cobbler be 'ignored' (except of course in the case of a revealed cobbler, in which case we should 'ignore' everything they say should we not choose to lynch them immediately).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Her point still stands, though - the Hunter should not reveal. Well, except for that one time with Mira, but that was special (and annoying! :rolleyes::p).

Noted, I was just clarifying.

[Glirdan]

Other than false revealing, I don't think they'll be all that much trouble until later on, so using up a lynch on them wouldn't be the best option.

Fair enough. But should we have suspicion, I believe that it would be in the best interest for all of us to be rid of them. Of course, finding the Wolves is our main priority, but should we happen upon the Cobbler, even if it is early in the game, I think we should be rid of the nuisance. I've seen first hand (and in person :p ) how dangerous a false reveal late in the game can be.

[Boromir88]

How can you all jibber-jabber so much so quickly. Everyone's posting such long long paragraphs. *sigh* :rolleyes:

The only thing I read after my post (since I just scanned the page for bolded Boro's)

Oh, I can think of one off the top of my head... isn't that right, Boromir88? :p

I can think of more! :p

Guess I should read all the text that isn't bolded Boro's, eh.

[Glirdan]

How can you all jibber-jabber so much so quickly. Everyone's posting such long long paragraphs. *sigh*

And you had to go and ruin it! :p Now everyone's completely silent.

[Loslote]

And you had to go and ruin it! :p Now everyone's completely silent.

Hem, hem...

Anywho, first impressions (because it's too quiet! :eek:):

Shasta: Evil wolfykins...

Zil: I...I think you're okie...

Legate: ...good boy?

Pitchie: Oh so dis-Agreeable!

Nogrod: Scandalously non-evil! And just plain scandalous...

Boro: Can't skim for his own name properly. ;) So possily non-ebil...

Glirdy: I doesn't suspect him, precious.

And I have no read on the girls. At all.

[Nerwen]

It doesn't take away the chance the cobbler might fool us for one Day, but it will sure mean the cobbler will ensure s/he will walk to the gallows pretty soon if s/he's trying to pull out that kind of trick. I mean in a basic scenario, an ordinary elf could try to do the trick to save the seer and we'd be insecure if the seer just later said s/he is "an innocent". But in this game the cobbler will be seen as a cobbler by the seer.
Of course, if a fake-Gifted proved to be a nuisance, there would have been the need for radical turn, but fortunately indeed, the Seer can always dream of him/her.
As for the Cobbler, I'd say ignore xem for now. If they want to false reveal, let them have fun, and then let them go "oh. Right. I'm dead now". Other than false revealing, I don't think they'll be all that much trouble until later on, so using up a lynch on them wouldn't be the best option.
A Cobbler that doesn't know who the wolves are and can be detected by the Seer is really not that huge of a threat, until the end of the game when their vote can do harm.
Nerwen replied with her usual impatience:

"Look, my friends. you're thinking about this all wrong. Yes, even Master Nogrod– with all due respect.

'Question: what will the Seer do if she dreams the traitor early on?
Answer: Nothing.

'At least, she might encourage the rest of us to attack him– or not, depending on whether we seem likely to get an actual wolf at the time– but she certainly won't reveal just to get him; neither can he lead her to any wolves. Thus, false-revealing by the traitor is more of a risk than the rest of you seem to think."

EDIT:X'd with Lottie and Glirdan.

[Glirdan]

I think miss Lottie is a wolfykins for making a day 1 list :p

EDIT: Spelling

[Loslote]

I think miss Lottie is a wolfykins for making a day 1 list :p

Aww, nuts, caught me again! :p

Really, though, not liking Shasta. Too non-confrontational, and the way he words this especially:

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

Will comment on others momentarily.

Makes me a bit worried.

Of course, when he's a wolf, I can never tell, so he's probably innocent anyway. :rolleyes: Best I've got so far as far as suspicion goes, though.

[Glirdan]

Well, I'm off for now. I may sneak on in the next few hours if I don't fall asleep. If I do fall asleep, I'll be on a few hours before DL.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Lottie - That's silly. I clarified a rule for Wilwa. What about that should be worrying? I'll give you a hint - the answer's 'nothing'. And as for being 'nonconfrontational' - I was the first to evidence actual suspicion of a specific person (Pitch, to be precise), so I don't really know where you're getting 'nonconfrontational' from.

[Loslote]

Lottie - That's silly. I clarified a rule for Wilwa. What about that should be worrying? I'll give you a hint - the answer's 'nothing'. And as for being 'nonconfrontational' - I was the first to evidence actual suspicion of a specific person (Pitch, to be precise), so I don't really know where you're getting 'nonconfrontational' from.

Like I said, it's early in Day 1, and I'm probably wrong anyway. Total gut feeling, and I was trying to describe why...I'm hardly saying you're without question evil, just that you're my top (and only, really) suspect. As for your response, it sounds like the Wolf!Shastas I've seen before - really aggressive. As for the suspicion, you included a :p with it, so I didn't really pay much attention to that.

Repeat: Not solid proof that you're evil. Not even close. Complete gut feeling - but I don't trust you.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Like I said, it's early in Day 1, and I'm probably wrong anyway. Total gut feeling, and I was trying to describe why...I'm hardly saying you're without question evil, just that you're my top (and only, really) suspect. As for your response, it sounds like the Wolf!Shastas I've seen before - really aggressive. As for the suspicion, you included a :p with it, so I didn't really pay much attention to that.

Repeat: Not solid proof that you're evil. Not even close. Complete gut feeling - but I don't trust you.

Fair enough, but you don't get to call me 'nonconfrontational' in one breath and then 'aggressive' in the next. It doesn't work like that. :p

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler). I'm going to try and sleep now - although I don't hold out too much hope considering the dark dankness of this cell.

[Loslote]

Fair enough, but you don't get to call me 'nonconfrontational' in one breath and then 'aggressive' in the next. It doesn't work like that. :p

Aggressively nonconfrontational? You don't think so? :p

Actually, I meant to call your response post aggressive, and the posts before that nonconfrontational. Sort of careful, then switch to defensively aggressive, that sort of thing...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Now we are starting to talk, which is funny and at least starting to give some ideas of what people are like. My initial feeling is the best about wilwa, because all she says is reasonable and at the same time a thing I believe Wolves would not just say randomly, like, not the sort of "fake wisdom" Wolves often use to seem reasonable.

The last exchange between Shasta and Lottie made me curious a bit, I wouldn't have thought Shasta strange by himself, but the way Lottie pointed it out seems rather weird - but Shasta's reaction likewise. His reaction was a bit, well, aggressive? To such a minor thing (or so it would seem). But the funniest part was Lottie's backing away after that. And the sort of repetitive "I think you are suspicious, BUT in fact I do not", which immediately made me think of Wolf-on-Wolf accusations, which are just a theatre for us... Not to say that Shasta's initial suspicion of Pitch could well be a simple random accusation made by a Wolf in order to have some good person to vote for toDay...

Well it's too early for any good suspicions, but this just raised my attention. As with everything, noting this down and looking forward to see how the Day continues, especially from the two...

Also, I entirely agree with Nerwen on the subject of the cobbler, and disagree with Legate - in no instance should the cobbler be 'ignored' (except of course in the case of a revealed cobbler, in which case we should 'ignore' everything they say should we not choose to lynch them immediately).
I knew there will be a discussion about this, simply because people have different opinions on this. Even considering what Nerwen said, I believe the Cobbler is not a threat. It can be so on some late Day, when there are few people left and he/she can vote with the Wolves to get rid of the villagers... Although okay, we are quite a small village here... hmm, I would have to count. Okay, I submit, maybe you are right and particularly in this village we should not ignore them for too long, but still, in the first Days it should not be our concern. And anyway, even in the later ones - I mean, we should look for WWs, not for Cobbler - once there are no WWs, the Cobbler has lost as well. So, still, I prefer to leave the Cobbler mostly because they tend to get themselves lynched pretty soon, usually, by themselves, because they just make a mess and thus, you can spot them. In any case, if you see somebody behaves suspiciously, you won't be able to say whether it's a Cobbler or not - or not necessarily (and it can be a Wolf faking to be a Cobbler etc.), so basically you vote for the person whoever it is, and learn their role once they hang, gibbets and crows, dotard, oh no, too bad, I guess we don't have any gibbets here in this dungeon and I think this wasn't my line anyway...

How can you all jibber-jabber so much so quickly. Everyone's posting such long long paragraphs. *sigh*

The only thing I read after my post (since I just scanned the page for bolded Boro's)



I can think of more!

Guess I should read all the text that isn't bolded Boro's, eh.

Just to make you read this post ;) :p And you hypocrite, don't pretend to make short posts just now, just wait when you get into some argument...

Gotta go now, will be around again...

EDIT: x-posted with Lottie

[Loslote]

The last exchange between Shasta and Lottie made me curious a bit, I wouldn't have thought Shasta strange by himself, but the way Lottie pointed it out seems rather weird - but Shasta's reaction likewise. His reaction was a bit, well, aggressive? To such a minor thing (or so it would seem). But the funniest part was Lottie's backing away after that. And the sort of repetitive "I think you are suspicious, BUT in fact I do not", which immediately made me think of Wolf-on-Wolf accusations, which are just a theatre for us...

I do suspect him. He's my only suspicion so far. But it's Day 1, and I have a rather extensive history of being very, very wrong and not letting go of that suspicion. So I've started trying not to 'witch-hunt' early on...

Anyway, I really have to go to sleep now. I'll be back...before DL...for a bit...:rolleyes:

[Glirdan]

The last exchange between Shasta and Lottie made me curious a bit, I wouldn't have thought Shasta strange by himself, but the way Lottie pointed it out seems rather weird - but Shasta's reaction likewise. His reaction was a bit, well, aggressive? To such a minor thing (or so it would seem). But the funniest part was Lottie's backing away after that. And the sort of repetitive "I think you are suspicious, BUT in fact I do not", which immediately made me think of Wolf-on-Wolf accusations, which are just a theatre for us... Not to say that Shasta's initial suspicion of Pitch could well be a simple random accusation made by a Wolf in order to have some good person to vote for toDay...

I had actually been thinking about that while trying to fall asleep (made difficult by this lovely cold I seem to have :rolleyes:) and was just coming on to voice that and noticed you beat me to it.

But I am glad that I am not the only one who's initial thought was Wolf-on-Wolf. Shasta's defensive aggressive response to Lottie aside, their whole conversation is giving off an almost banter kind of vibe, especially after Shasta's response.

I do suspect him. He's my only suspicion so far. But it's Day 1, and I have a rather extensive history of being very, very wrong and not letting go of that suspicion. So I've started trying not to 'witch-hunt' early on...

And yet I've seen you go two games in a row and peg the Wolves based of IC posts and go on and lynch them to help win the game for the village....I seem to remember being one of those lynchee's actually :rolleyes:

EDIT: Going to attempt sleep again...if I can't, well, I may post again within the next three hours or so :rolleyes:

[Nerwen]

So, still, I prefer to leave the Cobbler mostly because they tend to get themselves lynched pretty soon, usually, by themselves, because they just make a mess and thus, you can spot them. In any case, if you see somebody behaves suspiciously, you won't be able to say whether it's a Cobbler or not - or not necessarily (and it can be a Wolf faking to be a Cobbler etc.), so basically you vote for the person whoever it is, and learn their role once they hang, gibbets and crows, dotard, oh no, too bad, I guess we don't have any gibbets here in this dungeon and I think this wasn't my line anyway...
Oh we'll find a way. We Noldor are ingenious. And I'm agreed that we should concentrate on finding the wolves. Just as long as we don't end up giving anyone a free pass for being a (supposed) "known traitor", and therefore "harmless". The annals tell us this has often proved unwise.

But I am glad that I am not the only one who's initial thought was Wolf-on-Wolf. Shasta's defensive aggressive response to Lottie aside, their whole conversation is giving off an almost banter kind of vibe, especially after Shasta's response.

I'll third that. Note that it's not even clear why he's her top suspect– at least, this is the closest she gives to an explanation:

Actually, I meant to call your response post aggressive, and the posts before that nonconfrontational. Sort of careful, then switch to defensively aggressive, that sort of thing...
Which I think sounds awfully calculating. And then, the way she backs right off from suspecting him... it looks contrived. I can think of explanations other than Wolf-on-wolf, though. Cobbler testing the waters, for example.

[A Little Green]

A quick comment on the Day so far before dashing off again. First - I find it amusing that people keep saying the wolves are our top priority, and yet the main topic of discussion is the cobbler. Like, the cobbler is distracting the village already, and it's actually possible they haven't been around yet at all! :rolleyes: Though of course it's pretty boring and unfruitful to start the Day with everyone echoing "We need to kill the wolves!" But still, I wouldn't be surprised if our cobbler was in fact one of those keeping up the debate about how to deal with the cobbler.

Another thing: the exchange between Lottie and Shasta. Possible scenarios:
a) Lottiewolf relying on "gut-feeling" to justify easy suspicion on an innocent Shasta. I don't find this that likely, though it's definitely a possibility. Lottie's tone is quite genuine, and if she's a wolf I'd be more inclined to think Shasta is one too (= option d)).
b) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on a Shastawolf. Definitely possible.
c) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on an innocent Shasta. Definitely possible.
d) Lottiewolf and Shastawolf mess around with a neat Day 1 wolf-on-wolf show. Certainly wouldn't put it past the two of them.


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[wilwarin538]

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

Will comment on others momentarily.

Oh, you're right, I got it backwards, anyone can die with them in a lynch, but only a wolf during the night. Still though, a revealed hunter is less likely to be night killed, and then what good are they? Just saying, strongly opposed.

Anyway, be back when I am more fully awake.

[Nerwen]

Another thing: the exchange between Lottie and Shasta. Possible scenarios:
a) Lottiewolf relying on "gut-feeling" to justify easy suspicion on an innocent Shasta. I don't find this that likely, though it's definitely a possibility. Lottie's tone is quite genuine, and if she's a wolf I'd be more inclined to think Shasta is one too (= option d)).
b) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on a Shastawolf. Definitely possible.
c) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on an innocent Shasta. Definitely possible.
d) Lottiewolf and Shastawolf mess around with a neat Day 1 wolf-on-wolf show. Certainly wouldn't put it past the two of them.
I'd say any of the above is possible, plus what I suggested... except that I'm surprised you find her tone "quite genuine", because it sounds anything but to me (note that this doesn't rule out b) or c)– I mean, I suppose she could be scrabbling for reasons to justify her "gut-feeling").

[Nogrod]

Still though, a revealed hunter is less likely to be night killed, and then what good are they? Just saying, strongly opposed.A hunter-revelation would be problematic indeed, not as such as the hunter could serve as a known innocent which would help us a lot in the endgame, but I'm not so sure how we could deal with a "hunter counter-reveal"... That's actually a maddening scenario, especially if it happens late in the game. And a card the cobbler would just love to play (one more reason to get rid of her/him if possible).

So how about we just made a deal that the hunter doesn't reveal? That way we could then lynch the possible imposter. *looks at the hunter and puts a finger on his lips... shhh...*

It seems the only interesting thing toDay has been this Lottie - Shasta to and fro, so it's understandable they have gathered the most suspicion. But I'd be careful at least yet to make any further conclusions about it. I mean especially Lottie tends to gather a lot of suspicion more or less every game in the beginning (I should know that as I tend to be one of those suspecting her), so I would almost say that I find those more suspicious who second or third the suspicions as "easy target" suspicions. But sure it's early to say at this point.

Okay. This is a bad Day for me as I need to be off to choir rehersals, but I'll be back for the last two hours. I hope we have a bit more lively discussion going on when I return (although not so many pages I don't have time to read all... :rolleyes:).

[Boromir88]

Wow, Lottie, I do fail at even scanning for my name!.


Besides, how else are we going to make sure Boro's a wolf than letting him kill off the Cobbler during the Night?

I would die if that happened again, but I'm afraid fortunately for the Cobbler this time, I am no wolf.


Just to make you read this post. And you hypocrite, don't pretend to make short posts just now, just wait when you get into some argument...



Haha fairy 'nuff.

I find it ironic of all the protesting to just ignore the cobbler and focus on the wolves...the vast majority of the talk has been about ignoring the cobbler. So in a completely backwards way to avoid focusing on the Cobbler, everyone's doing it. Oh the irony.

I side with Nerwen and Shasta on this, if we see someone acting cobblerish lynch them. What kind of logic is, "wait until the end of the game when the cobbler could be the most dangerous until we do something about it?" Strike while the iron is hot, get him gone when we get the chance and where there is little damage! It is a nice perk to have the seer being able to ID the cobbler in dreams, but come now to suggest that the seer would do something as rash as jumping at any fake reveal to oust the cobbler while their are still 3 wolves abroad is kind pointless.

(but it did feed to my paranoia at the first read) The wolves will try to be nice and friendly. The innocents will be brutal and openly attacking people (hopefully).

I don't like those huge generalizations, because I think it's more depended on the player than the role. I mean I act brutal and attacking all the time because I know that's what keeps me around, regardless of role. Although too much brutishness also means some people are more likely support a bandwagon on me, then oppose, regardless of what they think my role is :p

As I said earlier, let's go for any signs of wolvery for now, toDay, toMorrow... if we get a good hunch on a cobbler and if we are totally baffled with the wolves, let's then try to lynch the cobbler (it might be a wolf trying to act like a cobbler as well, not an unheard of scenario either).

This isn't like using an oven, minute 20 flip the chicken over, roast again. Minute 38 remove and prod with a meat thermometer...drat it's not 180 degrees, stick back. Minute 47 done. Let rest, minute 55 bon appetit.

No no no, we stay the course. If we miss out on wolves the first few days, we don't switch it up to the cobbler. Why is there an assumption that we can't try to figure out the wolves and cobbler...ya know at the same time? If people are pressed for time (like usual) and don't have the time to do so then let's split up the work load.

We get a few people who can look for potential cobblers, and to protect from tricksy manipulation a few "fact" checkers. A couple to focus on the wolves, and again some more fact checkers to try and eliminate as much bias and twisted manipulation as possible. I'll check for possible cobblery anyone want to volunteer to examine me...ehem I mean my work? :rolleyes:

Because the thing is, as long as we hold up our job in buying the gifteds as many days as we can and avoid the irrationally, more often than not, extremely damaging emotional lynches, than we usually fair very well against the wolves. No stupid lynches, it really is that simple, because everyone's been a wolf here before correct? And don't you just smirk and jump for joy anytime the village manages to lynch one of their gifteds? No stupid lynches, don't do the wolves work for them, and honestly we'll be fine as our chances of winning dramatically go up.

Edit: crossed with Nog

[Ozban]

Greenie, great job summarizing what everyone knows already. We know nothing, whatever the reason their (meant Lottie and Shasta of course) exchange had, we can't know. Unless they care to explain. I keep wondering what led you to writing such a list...

And yes, traitor/cobbler can be anybody, possibly one of those Cobb-hunt theoretists. Again, we know not.

For my part: that Lottie-shasta conversation was most likely just a random recon. Wouldn't make too much fuzz around it.

Pitch:
As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences.

I hope you are not gonna change the history records. Would be troublesome you know, not that suprising though. ;)

Legate: I'm so glad we (more like Nerwen) convinced you about importance of cobbler, I'm so glad you won't be "ignoring" him.

Even considering what Nerwen said, I believe the Cobbler is not a threat. It can be so on some late Day, when there are few people left and he/she can vote with the Wolves to get rid of the villagers... Although okay, we are quite a small village here... hmm, I would have to count. Okay, I submit, maybe you are right and particularly in this village we should not ignore them for too long, but still, in the first Days it should not be our concern. And anyway, even in the later ones - I mean, we should look for WWs, not for Cobbler - once there are no WWs, the Cobbler has lost as well.


You know it would be a shame, ignoring threat of cobbler completely. On the other hand, from what i got, Cobbler tends to fall into pit by himself, we are just the pendulum. :) I wouldn't really assign any high priority to finding him. Just get rid of him eventually when he is revealed.

Aye, the false-reveal scenarios are dangerous, but is such a theory really worth such a witch-hunt? We are starting from the scratch. Without information of any sort we will probably witness several innocent die before we find a real cobbler.

Let's find WWs. That should be our priority. One point I'll agree on with Legate.

Later...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A quick comment on the Day so far before dashing off again. First - I find it amusing that people keep saying the wolves are our top priority, and yet the main topic of discussion is the cobbler. Like, the cobbler is distracting the village already, and it's actually possible they haven't been around yet at all! Though of course it's pretty boring and unfruitful to start the Day with everyone echoing "We need to kill the wolves!" But still, I wouldn't be surprised if our cobbler was in fact one of those keeping up the debate about how to deal with the cobbler.
That is indeed not improbable, and I think it is worth considering what people have said in relation to the topic. And I must say, it was part of the intention. And as for cobbler being the main topic, well, it does not matter what we talk about as long as we talk about something to which people can express their opinions! Especially on Day 1. I really like it when people say "let's focus on hunting Wolves!" but apart from that line, they say nothing else. :rolleyes: You can read a lot from people's reactions - actually, that's the only way you can read something on Day 1 (since you don't have any evidence yet from the Night-kills) - and that's what I planned to do (instead of just in-character banter or random "I think XY is a Wolf, because I don't like his avvie!"). And people react, speak their minds and so on, and that's the whole point...

A hunter-revelation would be problematic indeed, not as such as the hunter could serve as a known innocent which would help us a lot in the endgame, but I'm not so sure how we could deal with a "hunter counter-reveal"... That's actually a maddening scenario, especially if it happens late in the game. And a card the cobbler would just love to play (one more reason to get rid of her/him if possible).

So how about we just made a deal that the hunter doesn't reveal? That way we could then lynch the possible imposter. *looks at the hunter and puts a finger on his lips... shhh...*

I am puzzled by Nogrod in general, either your wit is a bit sleepy today or you are reading a different thread than me. Of course the Hunter should not reveal, and it's been said here already, so not sure what is inventive about your shh-ing ;) Hunter revealing him/herself will ruin the whole point, as you eventually conclude yourself. The only moment when I can think of Hunter-reveal to be good is when there are like three people left and every "known innocent" is important. But again, nobody could tell for sure that the Hunter is not faking anyway, and also, in fact even in this case of three people remaining, the Hunter would do better to stay hidden, as even if he is lynched, he can still take the last Wolf with him, leaving the single innocent to win. I am just wondering if you are not trying to suggest to the Cobbler to play a Hunter or something weird as that, although I can't see why it would make any sense. In any case, I think the topic should be just laid to rest.

But well! Sorta quiet, isn't it? I have to leave now and will be back only to vote, I think, so... I am not so happy with the turn of events and have to say that indeed aside from Shasta-Lottie there's been very little to go on with. I guess Boro is responsible with his unusual quietness :p Otherwise, I would like to hear still from those who haven't been around yet, that is, Eönwë (who said however that he unfortunately won't be around toDay until late), Ozban and skip. And preferrably from others too, but... well...

Right now I am wary of Shasta and Lottie, and curious about Nogrod... I mean, he says the kind of things that Wolves say if they want to participate but not really to be constructive... but it's more like that I am puzzled than suspicious, maybe he's just somehow skimming through the thread and not paying too much attention as to what he's reading or something. But something in his manner unnerves me too.

EDIT: x-ed with Boro and Ozban. Great! Seem like people are posting around, wonderful! Now gotta go, but will check...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.

Note - I'm fairly sure I'm going to have to vote in about three hours, and I won't be here for much of that time.

[Boromir88]

One thing I told myself I wanted to comment on but forgot that I told myself to comment on...

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences.

It's more about timing than anything. And of course once you've masterfully pulled off a great fake-reveal you've got this horrible reputation of being completely untrustworthy that follows you around for a while. It's quite a burden, because it's like everyone expects you at some point to just do some crazy fake reveal again and give pay back to deceiving them previously. But it's truly just about timing and doing the exact thing which no one expects.

My advice then, if you don't want that reputation of being absolutely untrustworthy, don't go for a successful fake reveal. Although, you're already "Mr. Agreeable" 'round these parts, and don't know if that's a rep you'll be able to shed...unless you pull off a great fake reveal. :p

[Pitchwife]

Awake and catching up...

In other news, I'm finding something slightly off about Pitch. He's only made one post thus far, but as I read it there were points at which I felt he was being awfully... well, the pun is inevitable... agreeable.
Let's see these points, please.

Right on spot Pitch. I paused at that while reading but got carried away by the cobbler-speculation... (but it did feed to my paranoia at the first read) The wolves will try to be nice and friendly. The innocents will be brutal and openly attacking people (hopefully). The wolves would love "friendliness-based lottery" of votes, while we innocents need to find out who the honey-tongued villains are.

Although I'm not too sure that quote merits as a reason to suspect Legate as you could read it as an IC comment as well.
Now what exactly are you doing here - just lecturing on general WW principles and saying they don't apply to the Legate-quote 'cause it's IC, or using my flippant remark to cast a shadow of doubt on Legate that doesn't quite amount to suspicion but could be exploited later? We wonders, my preciouss...
Oh, and wolves just lurve to hide their wolvery behind IC comments!

You seem to assume that the traitor, not to mention those of us whose souls have been taken by the accursed Lord of Wolves, would reveal only as the Seer. Why should that be?
Well, Legate used the Seer as an example, so I concentrated on that; besides, as wilwa has observed, the Ranger has less reason to reveal unless in mortal danger, and the Hunter less than the Ranger, so to fake-reveal as the Seer seems the most likely.
That's not to say the other two are impossible or unheard of... and might in fact be more dangerous than the Seer-act, as they can't be disproven like a fake Seer can. Actually, my remark about the danger of a counter-reveal delayed too long was inspired by legends of a wolf-hunt before my time, where I think a wolf revealed as the Ranger, and the true Ranger didn't contest the claim until he was threatened with being lynched... and wasn't believed and was lynched. So yes, fake reveals do have their dangers.

I remember my only game as a cobbler I false revealed as the ranger and ended up accidently giving away who a wolf was and helping the village win. But I suppose that's a rare occurence...
Ah, the game with the two Seers and two Rangers... *revels in fond memories*

In any case, if you see somebody behaves suspiciously, you won't be able to say whether it's a Cobbler or not - or not necessarily (and it can be a Wolf faking to be a Cobbler etc.), so basically you vote for the person whoever it is, and learn their role once they hang
Amen to that - we can't tell wolf from cobbler until they're dead, and that's the long and short of the whole discussion on whether we should concentrate on the cobbler (no we shouldn't) or ignore them (no we shouldn't).

On the Shasta-Lottie thing: Basically, Lottie's saying "I do suspect him in earnest, but I could be wrong" - and of course she could, such is the lot of an ordo, therefore it's trivial and she might as well not have bothered to say it. Peppering her suspicion with disclaimers like that does have a smell of wolvish caution, and it doesn't help that I don't see anything remotely worrying in that quote of Shasta she started her suspicion from.

Btw, I love Greenie's comment on the matter, presenting four scenarios and evaluating their respective probability as a) "definitely a possibility", b) "definitely possible", c) "definitely possible" and d) "certainly not past them". Makes everything so much clearer!:D

(x-ed with everything after #41)

[wilwarin538]

No stupid lynches, it really is that simple, because everyone's been a wolf here before correct? And don't you just smirk and jump for joy anytime the village manages to lynch one of their gifteds? No stupid lynches, don't do the wolves work for them, and honestly we'll be fine as our chances of winning dramatically go up.

Hear hear!

Well, not much new has been said. It seems agreed upon that we lynch the Cobbler if it is clear who they are, but WWs are the priority (now that I think about it the fact that this has even been discussed by most of us seems rather silly). And that Gifteds should shush (unless Seer has good info) and anyone revealing for a dumb reason will be swiftly lynched (especially if false revealing as the Hunter) since it's likely a false one.

Now that that's settled. Who do I find suspicious?

No one I'm afraid, which saddens me since I won't be around for a while. I'm going to try my hardest to get back in time for DL. I would vote now just to be on the safe side, but I have no idea who to vote for, so I'm going to wait and hope I get back in time to read up and make a good vote.

x'ed with a few, don't have time to read, so I'll catch up later

[Inziladun]

The last exchange between Shasta and Lottie made me curious a bit, I wouldn't have thought Shasta strange by himself, but the way Lottie pointed it out seems rather weird - but Shasta's reaction likewise. His reaction was a bit, well, aggressive? To such a minor thing (or so it would seem). But the funniest part was Lottie's backing away after that. And the sort of repetitive "I think you are suspicious, BUT in fact I do not", which immediately made me think of Wolf-on-Wolf accusations, which are just a theatre for us... Not to say that Shasta's initial suspicion of Pitch could well be a simple random accusation made by a Wolf in order to have some good person to vote for toDay...

Interesting points here. Individually, Lottie and Shasta seem to me to be their usual selves, but the interplay between them could be said to have had a bit of a companionlike feel. And Shasta's quick suspicion of Pitch does stand out as well.

In any case, if you see somebody behaves suspiciously, you won't be able to say whether it's a Cobbler or not - or not necessarily (and it can be a Wolf faking to be a Cobbler etc.), so basically you vote for the person whoever it is, and learn their role once they hang, gibbets and crows, dotard, oh no, too bad, I guess we don't have any gibbets here in this dungeon and I think this wasn't my line anyway...

You seemingly brought that up about the Cobbler to get discussion going, and that's appreciated. I didn't agree with your idea that they should be totally ignored. Now you've got the right stance. Suspicious behavor in general ought to be scrutinized, regardless of whether it looks more lupine or Cobblerish. It certainly has been heard of for wolves to emulate a Cobbler in the hopes they'll be dismissed as a threat.


A quick comment on the Day so far before dashing off again. First - I find it amusing that people keep saying the wolves are our top priority, and yet the main topic of discussion is the cobbler. Like, the cobbler is distracting the village already, and it's actually possible they haven't been around yet at all! :rolleyes: Though of course it's pretty boring and unfruitful to start the Day with everyone echoing "We need to kill the wolves!" But still, I wouldn't be surprised if our cobbler was in fact one of those keeping up the debate about how to deal with the cobbler.

Another thing: the exchange between Lottie and Shasta. Possible scenarios:
a) Lottiewolf relying on "gut-feeling" to justify easy suspicion on an innocent Shasta. I don't find this that likely, though it's definitely a possibility. Lottie's tone is quite genuine, and if she's a wolf I'd be more inclined to think Shasta is one too (= option d)).
b) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on a Shastawolf. Definitely possible.
c) Innocent Lottie getting her famous gut-feeling on an innocent Shasta. Definitely possible.
d) Lottiewolf and Shastawolf mess around with a neat Day 1 wolf-on-wolf show. Certainly wouldn't put it past the two of them.

Quite reasonable, this.


I find it ironic of all the protesting to just ignore the cobbler and focus on the wolves...the vast majority of the talk has been about ignoring the cobbler. So in a completely backwards way to avoid focusing on the Cobbler, everyone's doing it. Oh the irony.

Didn't Greenie say that already? :p


We get a few people who can look for potential cobblers, and to protect from tricksy manipulation a few "fact" checkers. A couple to focus on the wolves, and again some more fact checkers to try and eliminate as much bias and twisted manipulation as possible.

Like I said, the best bet is to look for evil-looking things in general, instead of trying to seperate them into "Cobbler things" and "wolf things". Wolves can look like Cobblers, and vice-versa.

x/d with Pitch and Wilwa

[Nerwen]

Actually, my remark about the danger of a counter-reveal delayed too long was inspired by legends of a wolf-hunt before my time, where I think a wolf revealed as the Ranger, and the true Ranger didn't contest the claim until he was threatened with being lynched... and wasn't believed and was lynched.
I recall a tragedy like that which occurred well within the time we've both been wolf-hunting. It involved a brave but ill-advised Ranger by the name of Rune and a vicious, ravening she-wolf named Lhuna. I believe your distant kinsman Kent was a witness.;)

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Pitchwife]

My advice then, if you don't want that reputation of being absolutely untrustworthy, don't go for a successful fake reveal. Although, you're already "Mr. Agreeable" 'round these parts, and don't know if that's a rep you'll be able to shed...unless you pull off a great fake reveal
Thanks for the advice, I've got no intention and no reason to (although it could be fun to try one day when I'm a wolf or cobbler). So I guess I'll just have to live with being Mr Agreeable...:rolleyes:

Legate - I'm not exactly comfortable with Nog myself, but I'm not exactly comfortable with you either, the way you now say ignore the cobbler, now don't, speak perfect sense at times but mostly weave those long convoluted word clouds which seem to drift any way the wind blows and are hard to get to the gist of... Another one to watch.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88
We get a few people who can look for potential cobblers, and to protect from tricksy manipulation a few "fact" checkers. A couple to focus on the wolves, and again some more fact checkers to try and eliminate as much bias and twisted manipulation as possible.
Like I said, the best bet is to look for evil-looking things in general, instead of trying to seperate them into "Cobbler things" and "wolf things". Wolves can look like Cobblers, and vice-versa.
Not to mention the fact that Boro's plan is totally over-complicated. He should stick to gatekeeping.:p

EDIT:X'd with Pitch.

[Pitchwife]

Er, Nerwen, you're quoting me there, not Boro. But yes, that's exactly the game I was thinking of.

[Nerwen]

Er, Nerwen, you're quoting me there, not Boro. But yes, that's exactly the game I was thinking of.
Oh, I don't know how I came to do that.:o I was really quite puzzled as to whether Boro had somehow forgotten he actually played in that game.

[skip spence]

The vision of fair Lady Thinlomien lying dead on the cold and rough stone-floor haunted skip as he paced to and fro in the dim half-light of the dungeon a stone’s throw away from the other prisoners. He stopped with a shudder of fear and disgust, and then drew a deep breath and closed his eyes in an effort to regain control of his mental faculties. And now, slowly, the horrid imagine on the back of his eyes would transform into the beloved shape of the princess Finduilas, and it was spring-time in a green, sunlit meadow, and she was running towards him wearing a white dress, smiling brightly with warm and loving affection, eyes keen and sparkling, her slender arms reaching out for him to embrace.

An epiphany, skip thought to himself as he opened his eyes again, and although he felt a brief but painful sting of guilt for momentarily thinking only of himself, he could not help to realize that this dreadful event was the perfect chance for him to achieve what he had set out to do, that this was the very reason he had come along on the perilous expedition in the first place. Courage returned to the Noldo. He would reveal and extinguish the lost souls among them, these dark shape-shifters, these cruel hounds of Sauron, and he would save his friends from certain death and emerge triumphantly out of the underground with them, and Finduilas would see him for the great hero that he truly was, and then she would surely love him as he loved her and they would finally be together, always. This is how it was meant to be.

Skip returned to the others with a determined look in his eyes.

Right then. Time to hunt some wolves. Will be around on and off the rest of the Day. First a shower (enough of the uncloaking jokes now!) and then I'll try to catch up!

[Loslote]

Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.

Since this is, in fact, Day 1, there are extremely few circumstances when I could have any reason that wasn't 'bunk'. Besides, I fail to see how my 'bunk'ish reasons affect my 'feeling genuine' at all. They're unrelated - I could have the best reasons in the world, but that doesn't mean I'd 'feel genuine'.

Anyway, I have to vote and run. I might be on in three hours or so, but don't count on it. :rolleyes:

++ Shasta

Have a good Day...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Indeed, I marvel at your audacity in suggesting such a thing, Master Nogrod. Holy Elbereth, there are ladies among us, and one of them a young maiden! Have you no decency?


Flattery will get you nowhere.:p

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences. Now as you are no doubt aware, the best way for such a fake claimant to fool us would be to sacrifice a real wolf in order to gain our trust, and the cobbler is in no position to do that, even if they were willing to, being as much in the dark as to the wolves' identity as we are. They might, of course, get a wolf lynched by mistake, deeming said wolf innocent, but then that would ill save the evil side. Therefore I don't think the danger of a cobbler fake-revealing very high, considering all sides. A wolf doing it, however, would be quite a different matter, as they could use their knowledge of who is furry and who isn't to lend credibility to their pretended dreams.

On the other hand, the cobbler, or a wolf, might still risk it in the hope to thus draw out the true Seer for the wolves to kill, as you seem to be considering here:

This is a two-edged blade. A false claim that is uncontested for too long and not disproven by mislynchings might be believed over a delayed counter-reveal... I think there are precedences to that in the histories, too. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, and in the meantime I trust in the wisdom of our
Seer to handle these matters without our prompting.

(x-ed with Zil and Nogrod)

Here you are, Pitch. Bolding mine. I've noticed several other points ("Thanks for the advice" sticks out most noticably) as I've read the Day, as well.

I have to vote in a few minutes. I'd prefer not to turn this into Shasta vs. Lottie, but I will if I have to.

[Boromir88]

Not to mention the fact that Boro's plan is totally over-complicated. He should stick to gatekeeping.:p


So I've been told before, but I question if I can even do that with how the wolves have managed to enter this cursed city.

But totally was not thinking about the organizational complications with that, I was more or less thinking...umm why can't we do both at the same time? *shrug*


Like I said, the best bet is to look for evil-looking things in general, instead of trying to seperate them into "Cobbler things" and "wolf things". Wolves can look like Cobblers, and vice-versa.


Hmm well cobblers tend to be intentionally confusing and all over the place to wreak havoc. And even if you choose not to listen to someone obviously stirring a pot of confusion, you're still faced with a conundrum of what do you do with someone who counts in the innocent tally but can mess the votes up later on. Where wolves at least try to make more reasonable and fair posts to try and sway the lynch in their favors.

But point taken, either through pure cobbler confusion or lying through wolf fangs yet still looking fair and reasonable, both are suspicious behaviors and that's what I will look for. No point to try to separate them.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Pitch

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.

Choose well, village.

[Pitchwife]

OK, Shasta , let's look at these points one by one:

Indeed, I marvel at your audacity in suggesting such a thing, Master Nogrod. Holy Elbereth, there are ladies among us, and one of them a young maiden! Have you no decency?
This is called IC banter, a thing not uncommon in the early posts of Day 1. (And if you're about to quote my words about wolves loving to hide behind that back at me, please point out the wolvish content hidden in this quote.)
Flattery will get you nowhere.
This is a semi-banter, semi-serious reply to something Legate said that made my eyebrows twitch briefly. Wolvishly agreeable? Don't think so.
On the other hand
This is called dialectics. Thesis and antithesis, that kind of stuff. If it means I'm a wolf, then so was Hegel.
and in the meantime I trust in the wisdom of our Seer to handle these matters without our prompting.
This may actually be the most 'agreeable' part of this post. Basically, it boils down to "It's OK for us to discuss all this, but the Gifteds can think for themselves and won't necessarily do what we tell them to". - This being my first post, I tried to be IC and use a somewhat lofty, Elvish style, which may have contributed to the impression of agreeability, I don't know.
"Thanks for the advice" - this is called irony.

Conclusion: I'm not yet convinced of my own wolvery. Not this time.;)

[Boromir88]

Current thoughts on people who've caught my attention before I go grab some lunch and then back to vote.

I won't vote for Ozban or Pitch today. I like Oz's first post, curious to see more how she plays. I like Pitch's response to me about fake revealing, looks pretty innocent.

Don't really trust or distrust Legate but he's chattery enough to give us tons of information so eventually to his benefit or not, I'll figure him out.

So far everyone else could get my vote for either failing to make any strong impressions or being eerily spunky for some reason *looks at Nog*

And I'm not exactly understanding what you're seeing in Greenie's post to prop her up on this pedestal. I mean for pointing out here's 4 scenarios with the Lottie-Shasta business, could be any one of them?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

What a pity this conversation seems to be taking shape and people are posting really a lot only when I don't have that much time to be around anymore... and probably won't until the DL... but I will vote still.

I side with Nerwen and Shasta on this, if we see someone acting cobblerish lynch them. What kind of logic is, "wait until the end of the game when the cobbler could be the most dangerous until we do something about it?" Strike while the iron is hot, get him gone when we get the chance and where there is little damage! It is a nice perk to have the seer being able to ID the cobbler in dreams, but come now to suggest that the seer would do something as rash as jumping at any fake reveal to oust the cobbler while their are still 3 wolves abroad is kind pointless.

If I understand it correctly, I don't get this at all - are you saying we should focus on the Cobbler? See above, please: if we lynch all the Wolves, we don't need to worry about any Cobblers anymore. So I don't see what you are talking about.

You know it would be a shame, ignoring threat of cobbler completely. On the other hand, from what i got, Cobbler tends to fall into pit by himself, we are just the pendulum. I wouldn't really assign any high priority to finding him. Just get rid of him eventually when he is revealed.

Aye, the false-reveal scenarios are dangerous, but is such a theory really worth such a witch-hunt? We are starting from the scratch. Without information of any sort we will probably witness several innocent die before we find a real cobbler.
Well, it is more like this - even if we were looking for a cobbler, we won't find him, or we couldn't be sure whether he is Cobbler or Wolf, and the point is anyway, we should find the Wolves first (see above). If I understood Boro's words, then he suggests that perhaps if you have free time, you can start looking for the Cobbler. But I think the Cobbler will really either reveal him/herself through some crazy Cobblery action (heedless kamikaze-type just in order to help the WWs), or just stay behind the scenes - where, however, he/she does not have as much power until the latter days.

But anyway, this was just for the clarification of this particular point.

It's more about timing than anything. And of course once you've masterfully pulled off a great fake-reveal you've got this horrible reputation of being completely untrustworthy that follows you around for a while. It's quite a burden, because it's like everyone expects you at some point to just do some crazy fake reveal again and give pay back to deceiving them previously. But it's truly just about timing and doing the exact thing which no one expects.

My advice then, if you don't want that reputation of being absolutely untrustworthy, don't go for a successful fake reveal. Although, you're already "Mr. Agreeable" 'round these parts, and don't know if that's a rep you'll be able to shed...unless you pull off a great fake reveal. :p
Okay, given that I am not 100% concentrating, I am not entirely sure what is this sort of dialogue with Pitch supposed to be, it just seems weird, or the point gets past me. Nonetheless, let me just say, as for horrible reputation, I think most people won't mind getting a bad reputation for a while if they happen to make a great bluff which will get them to win the game... as that's the goal, after all.

Legate - I'm not exactly comfortable with Nog myself, but I'm not exactly comfortable with you either, the way you now say ignore the cobbler, now don't, speak perfect sense at times but mostly weave those long convoluted word clouds which seem to drift any way the wind blows and are hard to get to the gist of... Another one to watch.

Only the Wolves don't ever change their opinions, Mr. Agreeable :p , because their "opinion" is fake, like everything they do. To see a flaw in one's thinking and to be willing to correct it is a way of the innocents, unless they are dumb bunch of people. Nonetheless, my basic stance has never changed in any radical way - it all stems from the basic understanding of what one means by "ignoring cobbler". I still think we should ignore the Cobbler. But basically simply because of what I said above (and what many have repeated so many times after me that I find it rather funny): we are not able to tell the Cobbler from a Wolf, usually. If there is someone suspicious, we just lynch him, and then we will know. Honestly, even when I consider my own experience, it is not common that we have so many suspects that we don't know whom to lynch first and start thinking which of them is the Cobbler and which one is Wolf.

Eurgh. I need to decide whom to vote, probably won't be posting anything long from now on... but I am reading...

EDIT: x.ed with Pitch and Boro. Boro, Ozban is a he :) And don't think you are going to confuse us with that, I am not going to discard the possibility of two of you being Wolves together, that's an old trick to pretend a gender-confusion while you know it already since last Night...

[skip spence]

Well then, I've read the thread and all this cobbler-talk obviously stands out. Some of it strikes me as silly, and some of it strikes me as right sinister, as it is strictly theoretical at this point without any cobbler suspects and is therefore a distraction from more important business, that is, deciding on a name. I fear that what we are hearing are the treacherous tongues of Sauron.

Some other impressions.

Green is being captain obvious. :p

Nerwen is the one most determined to stay in character whatever that means...

Boro chides people for posting too long then promptly posts a long, rather pointless and somewhat irrational post that in many ways repeats things already stated more than once.

I also agree with Legate that Nogrod's reasoning seems a bit dull toDay. Is the old master-hunter losing his touch, or is he no longer himself. Hard to say...

As it stands I might vote Shasta toDay for reasons I'd rather not disclose at this point... But I'll vote closer to the DL...

A question to Legate. What makes you single out Wilwa as especially reasonable?

[Ozban]

My friends, what is happening to you? Yesterday's friends turning suspicious at the first sign of danger. Shall we abandon all we were because of that damned Wolf Lord reigning these dungeons? Stand up for what you are, hold on to what we were through. Hunting wolves, we put our lives on the line many times. We relied on each other, now you seem forgeting our bonds. If there are traitors among us, we will find them, whatever the cost. But let's not accuse others without any solid evidence. "Yet hope remains while the Company is true." as Lord Felagund would say. And furthermore, I can't stand the thought of Sauron's amusement when he sees us turning on each other.

I'm not yet convinced of my own wolvery. Not this time.;)

I'm not convinced either. Neither that you are WW, neither that you aren't.

Wolvishly agreeable? Don't think so.

And do you really think someone would cease to suspect you because you disagree with them? Wouldn't convince me at least. ;)

I like Oz's first post, curious to see more how she plays.

I'm terribly sorry to disappoint you Boro but I'm actualy male.

And don't think you are going to confuse us with that, I am not going to discard the possibility of two of you being Wolves together, that's an old trick to pretend a gender-confusion while you know it already since last Night...

Aye Legate! You just uncovered our tactical masterpiece. :rolleyes:

[Pitchwife]

My thoughts on everyone up to now:
INNOCENT
Pitch - the unfurriest furrier you've ever seen

FEELING OK WITH
Boro - need to go through his posts at more leisure some time, but so far he looks unalarmingly Boroish to me
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter speaks words of wisdom beyond her years, and is actively engaged.
Ozban - one post (OK, two by now) which looks quite good, and besides he gets a newbie pass toDay (although he already seems to feel remarkably at home around these parts)

NO READ
Eönwë - absent
Greenie - just one post, half good sense, half "everything's possible". No idea.
Glirdan - nothing in his posts that really stood out to me, either pro or con.
Inziladun - I've given up all illusion about being able to read him. Sparse posts with good reason in them, involved in the discussion and still detached somehow, the usual Zil whatever his role. No clue.
skip - er, what?
wilwa - almost made it into the OK category, but not quite. Speaks a lot of common sense, but has no suspicions - really? I mean, come on, there's been quite a bit of discussion and controversy toDay, nothing there stood out to you?

FEELING QUEASY ABOUT
Legate - his response to my #52, second paragraph, looks fair enough, but still, he feels too vague to me, it's hard to get a grip on him, like grappling with a mollusc; makes me feel like, argh!
Nogrod - see #48, the second quote and my comment there; also calling for open suspicions but not giving any himself yet (as far as I could see); something's off there.

THERE BE A WOLF HERE?
Lottie
Shasta
These two deserve a post of their own, and I'm already x-ing with skip and Oz, so this goes out first.

[Glirdan]

All of this continued talk about the Cobbler is starting to give poor ol' Glirdy a headache on top of this nasty cold that has seemed to take control :(

Okay, back to serious.

I'm thankful that Legate brought up all this Cobbler talk as it has kept people talking, as was his intention. Yet Pitch has stirred some interesting points here about our conversation starter.

Legate - I'm not exactly comfortable with Nog myself, but I'm not exactly comfortable with you either, the way you now say ignore the cobbler, now don't, speak perfect sense at times but mostly weave those long convoluted word clouds which seem to drift any way the wind blows and are hard to get to the gist of... Another one to watch.

Yet this could simply be a very confused Legate....which I doubt. He is not the type of player to be confused easily. The wishy-washyness of his "Ignore the cobbler!" to his "Don't ignore the cobbler" has got me uneasy.

But I'm also rather uneasy about Pitch at the moment. His whole post defending himself against Shasta seems a little too defensive.....Yet I've suspected people of this before and it always turns out their innocent. I won't vote for PItch toDay, but will certainly be keeping an eye him.

And we have votes:

Lottie --------> Shasta
Shasta ------> Pitch

I would not put it past one of the three being a Wolf. The only question is which one.

EDIT: X'ed with Pitch

[A Little Green]

I'm back! We'll see if I can keep myself awake until DL..

Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk."Having a genuine-feeling tone" and "making sense" are not the same thing, not even close! Yes, Lottie's reasons for suspecting you weren't strong, but the tone in which she stated them struck me as more innocent than not.

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.Erm? You leave Lottie alone for toDay because what you suspect her for is largely what she always does - and go on to vote Pitch for being agreeable? I mean, what? :confused:


EDIT: x-ed with Glirdan

[Nogrod]

Logged in and reading: only one page but those posts are longish...

[Boromir88]

If I understand it correctly, I don't get this at all - are you saying we should focus on the Cobbler? See above, please: if we lynch all the Wolves, we don't need to worry about any Cobblers anymore. So I don't see what you are talking about.
No, no, saying I agreed with Nerwen and Shasta earlier that we shouldn't ignore the threat of the cobbler. I wasn't understanding the argument that "Well yeah, later on if the cobbler is alive he can be a real voting problem, so lets deal with it then." I was trying to say, why give the cobbler the chance to be a problem later? If someone is looking like the cobbler to me I'm going to vote for that person, believing they're the cobbler and thus someone we don't want to have around at any time.

Okay, given that I am not 100% concentrating, I am not entirely sure what is this sort of dialogue with Pitch supposed to be, it just seems weird, or the point gets past me. Nonetheless, let me just say, as for horrible reputation, I think most people won't mind getting a bad reputation for a while if they happen to make a great bluff which will get them to win the game... as that's the goal, after all.
I saw a chance to get a response from Pitch to see if I could figure him out. I'm glad he obliged to give me one.


I'm terribly sorry to disappoint you Boro but I'm actualy male.


Sorry for the mistake, and to have to disappoint you that this is actually not disappointing. :p

[Inziladun]

Since this is, in fact, Day 1, there are extremely few circumstances when I could have any reason that wasn't 'bunk'. Besides, I fail to see how my 'bunk'ish reasons affect my 'feeling genuine' at all. They're unrelated - I could have the best reasons in the world, but that doesn't mean I'd 'feel genuine'.

Anyway, I have to vote and run. I might be on in three hours or so, but don't count on it. :rolleyes:

++ Shasta

Hmm. That would seem to speak against those two being wolves together, at least.

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today.

As for Lottie, I seem to recall a recent circumstance where a 'contrived' Day 1 vote from her had evil intent and went horribly awry..:p

If I understand it correctly, I don't get this at all - are you saying we should focus on the Cobbler? See above, please: if we lynch all the Wolves, we don't need to worry about any Cobblers anymore. So I don't see what you are talking about.

I don't think that's what Boro meant. I took it as "If we see something that looks off, we shouldn't be fussed about whether the offender might be a wolf or merely the Cobbler", which is a sentiment I obviously agree with.


I still think we should ignore the Cobbler. But basically simply because of what I said above (and what many have repeated so many times after me that I find it rather funny): we are not able to tell the Cobbler from a Wolf, usually. If there is someone suspicious, we just lynch him, and then we will know. Honestly, even when I consider my own experience, it is not common that we have so many suspects that we don't know whom to lynch first and start thinking which of them is the Cobbler and which one is Wolf.

Hmm. That didn't seem to be what you were saying before, but all right.


Boro, Ozban is a he :) And don't think you are going to confuse us with that, I am not going to discard the possibility of two of you being Wolves together, that's an old trick to pretend a gender-confusion while you know it already since last Night...

I didn't know which Ozban was either. Good to have that clarified.

FEELING OK WITH
Boro - need to go through his posts at more leisure some time, but so far he looks unalarmingly Boroish to me
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter speaks words of wisdom beyond her years, and is actively engaged.
Ozban - one post (OK, two by now) which looks quite good, and besides he gets a newbie pass toDay (although he already seems to feel remarkably at home around these parts)

I'd agree about Ozban. He's fallen into the pattern quite nicely, considering this is his first game here.

Right now, the obvious choices toDay would seem to be Shasta and Lottie. I can't see both being wolves together, and it seems a bit too easy to have a wolf there. I'm going to look at other options, then.

x/d with Glirdan, Greenie, Nog, and Boro

[A Little Green]

Just to remind myself of who we have in the village and how many people are snugly dozing off under my reindeer..
Boro - Eurgh. Confuses me way too much right now.
Eönwë - Haven't seen.
Glirdan - No opinion yet.
Inzil - Likewise.
Legate - Seems somehow even more wishy-washy than usual - but then again, he also seems more wishy-washy than last game when he was a wolf, so I'm not sure if that's necessarily a sign of being a Leggywolf. Cobbler?
Lottie - Another eurgh. Right now I'd guess innocent, but then again I wouldn't be surprised if she turned out to be wolves with Shasta.
Nerwen - Can't read her yet.
Nogrod - Hasn't infuriated me yet. :p Seriously though, some good points have been raised against him and since I don't really have a read on him I'd love a closer look.
Ozban - Looks sharp, which I like. That isn't to say anything about "innocent" or "wolf", though.
Pitch - Not worried about him right now. (And he's safe from my vote toDay anyway, if only for that Hegel remark. :D)
Shasta - Don't trust him at the moment. I'd love to hear from him before having to vote, but since he has already voted I doubt he'll return. I feel worse about him than about anyone else in the village, but then again I'm doubtful whether - just in principle - it is possible to catch a psychic Shastawolf on Day 1... :rolleyes: In short, my head is exploding with scenarios and I'm sure it's unhealthy.
skip - Nothing alarming this far.
wilwa - Likewise.


EDIT: x-ed with Zil

[Nogrod]

Okay. A few people seem to be saying that I'm getting old, rusty and dumb. That might be true. But I'd also want to say that I posted a few posts in the very beginning when there were not too many posts to interact with, and then once in the afternoon when I just had time to read what had happened and had like ten minutes in my hands. So not the conditions for flaring arguments and deep insight based on actual analysis of the posting... :rolleyes:

Also I see some of you guys have read my discussions about the cobblers and hunters in quite an innovative way (which makes me suspect you for purposefully trying to paint something black which is actually white). But it may be I have not spelled out my thoughts in a definite and clear enough manner. Anyway, I suggest we discuss those things toMorrow if we are around to do that, for I wholeheartedly agree with those who say, that even if it was a good thing to have that cobbler-discussion et al, we now have some more important things to think about, there being an hour or so time left toDay.

EDIT: X'd with Greenie

[A Little Green]

Hmm. That would seem to speak against those two being wolves together, at least. Wow, I had forgotten Lottie actually voted for him. Well, that does make them being fellows a bit more improbable. Potentially sacrificing a fellow on Day 1 just like that would seem really stupid - the gain is not worth the risk. Especially seeing as Shasta wasn't really suspected at all until Lottie brought it up.. Everything's possible, for sure, but some scenarios are highly improbable compared to others.


EDIT: x-ed with Noggins

[Pitchwife]

Lottie
So she's abandoned the cautious disclaimers and is going after Shasta in earnest - but since she said he was her only suspect, she could hardly do anything else. Her reasons are still not the best - I mean, Shasta had what, two or three very short posts when she began to suspect him; to spot a wolf on such a small basis would be a psychic masterpiece. Which actually makes me wonder whether Shasta was such an easy suspect at all - wouldn't a Lottiewolf have found more and better suspicion-fodder in the whole cobbler-discussion? Or was she just being lazy and picking an (at the time) almost-submarine?
Problem is, she does have that genuine-sounding tone, and I'd be loth to see her lynched if she's really an innocent going on gut-feeling... Argh.

Shasta
OK, I'll try not to be biased here. Standing by his suspicion of me is OK, I'll give him that (especially as he could have voted for Lottie instead). His reasons - well... to me it looks like he singled me out in the morning as an easy suspect and pretty much ignored everybody else, except when defending himself against Lottie (which includes his passing suspicion of Greenie for supporting Lottie). As for his collection of evidence, I'll leave the evaluation to you.
I don't think his defense against Lottie was overly aggressive, as she claimed. But there's this:
Fair enough, but you don't get to call me 'nonconfrontational' in one breath and then 'aggressive' in the next.
I think it should have been clear that Lottie was referring to his behaviour before and after she suspected him, and muddling that difference to make it look like the person suspecting you is contradicting herself is exactly the kind of defense I would use myself as a wolf (and have).

I'll have to think this over once more, and then vote soonish.

EDIT: x-ed from #71 onwards.

[Eönwë]

Ok, well I'm here now.

I'll try to quickly read through the thread and see if anything jumps out at me...

[Nogrod]

skip - Nothing alarming this far.
wilwa - Likewise.Shouldn't this in itself be alarming?

I mean it goes to everyone anyone of you feel right now, "hmm, nothing alarming there", or "kind of nice, hard to form an opinion", "s/he's been there but not much to say" etc.

Boro was and is right when remarking that the personalities of different individual players determine a lot on whether the player is "Mr. Agreeable" or "Miss Confrontation". But I'd still claim that on most cases - and with most players - they tend to try and be a bit more nice when wolves. Pitch asked whether I was lecturing you guys about general WW-principles back there. Well maybe I was... so many people seem to forget that basic truth about werewolf-behaviour so often, even if they'd theoretically understand the concept.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Really short remarks, as I really don't have time:

I need to take a look toMorrow at those people who mostly just hang around and second others' suspicions or such. I don't recall correctly who all these people were, but I think at least Pitch to a certain extent, maybe Greenie, maybe skip? Not really sure (take this list as random attempt to remember names, I may be writing some totally unrelated name, confusing somebody with somebody else). In any case, I think there is a rather large amount of people who sort of "drift by" like this and sort of jumping on what others said (it may be genuine, just that they had the same idea, or it may not).

Secondly, as for Lottie's vote for Shasta... now of course it might be "they think we are W-on-W, now let's show them they were wrong, and in the best case, they will cease suspecting as and not even lynch any of us toDay!" I mean, just look at it, people really are dropping suspicions after this... I don't know if I shouldn't, too. I would, personally, now prefer to lynch Lottie to shasta, because she was the one who made the vote, so if it was like I just outlined above, then I find her more likely guilty (or if just one of them is a WW, she is more likely to be a Wolf just trying to lynch innocent shasta now, since all of the innocents would have two options, so of course she'd want to make us lynch the other person. But then again, if she is innocent, what else should she do). Why I don't want to lynch her so much, however, is also that she was lynched on Day 1 last game too... but well, well. I will now just take a look at the list of players and see if there isn't any other possible pick...

Hmph. *looks at the post* "Short".

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and onwards

[A Little Green]

Shouldn't this in itself be alarming?

I mean it goes to everyone anyone of you feel right now, "hmm, nothing alarming there", or "kind of nice, hard to form an opinion", "s/he's been there but not much to say" etc.

Boro was and is right when remarking that the personalities of different individual players determine a lot on whether the player is "Mr. Agreeable" or "Miss Confrontation". But I'd still claim that on most cases - and with most players - they tend to try and be a bit more nice when wolves. Pitch asked whether I was lecturing you guys about general WW-principles back there. Well maybe I was... so many people seem to forget that basic truth about werewolf-behaviour so often, even if they'd theoretically understand the concept.I'm not sure if I get your point, but if I do I think you're barking up the wrong tree here. I know that aggressive/contradictory doesn't equal wolf, or agreeable/making sense innocent. I seem to remember lecturing, in previous games, about how people vote for those who play in a different style or are aggressive, and leave the nice and slippery alone. When I say I'm not alarmed by someone, I mean that the person doesn't strike me as suspicious ("suspicious" as in "likely wolf", not "suspicious" as in "strange, contradictory, or aggressive"). Not sure if I made myself very clear, nor sure I responded to the right thing in the first place, but I hope I helped.


EDIT: x-ed with Legz

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I will just go with my initial idea.

++Loslote

Because generally she was the one who seemed to come there and back and back away from what she said in suspecting shasta etc... see my posts before.

Good Night, village... and vote well. And try to avoid any last-minute cross-voting chaos! :)

[Inziladun]

Bah. I'm at work right now, and expecting an appointment in a few minutes (:p @ Lommy), so I need to go ahead and vote.

I wanted to give Shasta the benefit of the doubt and entertain some other possibilities, but no one else really looks as potentially bad at the moment.


In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler). I'm going to try and sleep now - although I don't hold out too much hope considering the dark dankness of this cell.

He's "okay" with Pitch there, despite the earlier suspicion of him.

Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.

Now suspicious of Greenie.

++Pitch

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.

Votes Pitch. Because he wasn't talking of the Cobbler?

Well, then:

++Shasta

Not a lock by any means, but no one else jumps out as much.

x/d with all since # 77

[skip spence]

hm, have been getting phone-calls all night, uhm Osanwe Kenta calls I mean, and never really had time for a closer look at people... Would rather see Shasta than Lottie go though...

[Nogrod]

Okay. A hastily gathered "impressions-list" for now.

Most probably will not vote toDay(unless something drastic happens)

Ozban - newbie-pass, with quite a nice performance thus far
Glirdan - is kind of hypernervous when a wolf and doesn't look like that right now
Loslote -tends to get lynched early on most of the time; she seems to act suspiciously "by nature".

Eönwë - only came in, no idea as now, subject to change when he posts.

I'd lean not voting toDay at least on the possible suspicions I could have right now.

Legate of Amon Lanc - someone said he was wishy-washy (or something), I'd say he's explaining everyhing too much - and doing Legate 360's...
Boromir88 - acts a bit weird but maybe it's just this "new Boromir" we've seen in a few last games?

Total quetionmarks but would love to see more... (they have said things anyway)

Nerwen
A Little Green

Somewhat weary of or could vote...

Pitchwife - I'm a bit worried about his defencive-thoroughness, like there was a case to proof against Shasta's odd (bordering ridiculous) suspicions.
Shastanis Althreduin - makes me uneasy with his odd suspicions on Pitchie and all that jazz with Lottie (of the two I find Shasta more suspicious).

A bit anxious about these: they have been around, have posted but I still can't form an opinion on them... maybe because they haven't said anything? Prove me wrong!
skip spence
wilwarin538
Inziladun

I'd rather vote one of the last five toDay.

EDIT: X'd from my last post onwards

[Pitchwife]

He's "okay" with Pitch there, despite the earlier suspicion of him.
Read what you quote, please. Shasta said 'least okay', as in 'most not-okay', so whatever he's done, contradicting himself isn't among it. Mistake, or twisting words?
Not that I disagree so much with the vote itself...

[Ozban]

I mean it goes to everyone anyone of you feel right now, "hmm, nothing alarming there", or "kind of nice, hard to form an opinion", "s/he's been there but not much to say" etc.


Fair thought, There are quite a few "submarinish" guys out there. That's surely worth considering. Don't they have time? Or they just stay low purposefully?

Oh screw it! this is too much for my mind to analyze.

[skip spence]

Prove me wrong!

Don't really see how that's possible at this point.

[Glirdan]

Wow, I had forgotten Lottie actually voted for him. Well, that does make them being fellows a bit more improbable. Potentially sacrificing a fellow on Day 1 just like that would seem really stupid - the gain is not worth the risk. Especially seeing as Shasta wasn't really suspected at all until Lottie brought it up.. Everything's possible, for sure, but some scenarios are highly improbable compared to others.


As stupid as it would be (and I totally agree that the scenario I'm about to throw out there is highly unlikely at this stage in the game, but not unheard of), it is possible that they are doing just that.

A Lottiewolf and Shastawolf would be bold enough to throw one or the other under the bus on Day 1 if it actually came down to saving their own skin. I've been a victim of that before myself. :rolleyes:

However, as I said, the possibility and likelihood of that being the actual case is rather slim.

I am still inclined, however, to believe that at least one of the two is a Wolf.

At this point, I am more inclined to believe it to be Shasta.

When Lottie started accusing him, he became rather defensive, but it did not seem like an innocent trying to save himself.


Lottie - That's silly. I clarified a rule for Wilwa. What about that should be worrying? I'll give you a hint - the answer's 'nothing'. And as for being 'nonconfrontational' - I was the first to evidence actual suspicion of a specific person (Pitch, to be precise), so I don't really know where you're getting 'nonconfrontational' from.

It seems a little too aggressive to be an innocent trying to save himself.

Here are the next three post exchanges between him and Lottie:


Like I said, it's early in Day 1, and I'm probably wrong anyway. Total gut feeling, and I was trying to describe why...I'm hardly saying you're without question evil, just that you're my top (and only, really) suspect. As for your response, it sounds like the Wolf!Shastas I've seen before - really aggressive. As for the suspicion, you included a with it, so I didn't really pay much attention to that.

Repeat: Not solid proof that you're evil. Not even close. Complete gut feeling - but I don't trust you.

Fair enough, but you don't get to call me 'nonconfrontational' in one breath and then 'aggressive' in the next. It doesn't work like that.

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler). I'm going to try and sleep now - although I don't hold out too much hope considering the dark dankness of this cell.


Aggressively nonconfrontational? You don't think so?

Actually, I meant to call your response post aggressive, and the posts before that nonconfrontational. Sort of careful, then switch to defensively aggressive, that sort of thing...

Lottie also brings up the fact that he is being aggressive in his response.

Also, his accusation of Pitch at first is very playful banter.


In other news, I'm finding something slightly off about Pitch. He's only made one post thus far, but as I read it there were points at which I felt he was being awfully... well, the pun is inevitable... agreeable.

Later, when he mentions his suspicions of Pitch again, he says:


In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler). I'm going to try and sleep now - although I don't hold out too much hope considering the dark dankness of this cell.

There is no actual reasoning behind it and is okay with Nerwen (hmmmm....perhaps we've been barking up the wrong tree on who his fellow co-hort could be?)

He's gone (due to sleeping) for a few hours and when he comes back, all he has is this:


Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.

Note - I'm fairly sure I'm going to have to vote in about three hours, and I won't be here for much of that time.

Nothing mentioning Pitch whatsoever.

Disappears again (although gave us the note saying he would be gone for most of it) and when he comes back he FINALLY gives some reasoning of suspecting Pitch.



Indeed, I marvel at your audacity in suggesting such a thing, Master Nogrod. Holy Elbereth, there are ladies among us, and one of them a young maiden! Have you no decency?


Flattery will get you nowhere.

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences. Now as you are no doubt aware, the best way for such a fake claimant to fool us would be to sacrifice a real wolf in order to gain our trust, and the cobbler is in no position to do that, even if they were willing to, being as much in the dark as to the wolves' identity as we are. They might, of course, get a wolf lynched by mistake, deeming said wolf innocent, but then that would ill save the evil side. Therefore I don't think the danger of a cobbler fake-revealing very high, considering all sides. A wolf doing it, however, would be quite a different matter, as they could use their knowledge of who is furry and who isn't to lend credibility to their pretended dreams.

On the other hand, the cobbler, or a wolf, might still risk it in the hope to thus draw out the true Seer for the wolves to kill, as you seem to be considering here:

This is a two-edged blade. A false claim that is uncontested for too long and not disproven by mislynchings might be believed over a delayed counter-reveal... I think there are precedences to that in the histories, too. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, and in the meantime I trust in the wisdom of our
Seer to handle these matters without our prompting.

(x-ed with Zil and Nogrod)

Here you are, Pitch. Bolding mine. I've noticed several other points ("Thanks for the advice" sticks out most noticably) as I've read the Day, as well.

I have to vote in a few minutes. I'd prefer not to turn this into Shasta vs. Lottie, but I will if I have to.

All of that was Pitch's first post of the Day, most of which seems like IC banter. Seems to me like a Shastawolf trying to latch onto an easy prey.

And then his vote:


++Pitch

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.

Choose well, village.

He is voting based purely off Pitch's first post without taking the time to actually go through the other posts and seeing what else Pitch had posted.

So, without further ado, I know who I am voting for:

++Shasta


I will be around till the end of Day.

EDIT X'ed with everyone since end of Page 2

[skip spence]

So who are you guys leaning at, Nogrod, Pitch and Ozzy?

[Nogrod]

Don't really see how that's possible at this point.It was more of a metaphor trying to say that "convince us" you're making an effort... :)

EDIT: X'd with skip... heh...

[wilwarin538]

I'm here, I'm here! I'll skim through and try to make a mostly logical choice.

15 minutes than, right?

[Thinlómien]

Yep, it's 15min to go. :)

[Nogrod]

This should be right...

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3

[Inziladun]

Read what you quote, please. Shasta said 'least okay', as in 'most not-okay', so whatever he's done, contradicting himself isn't among it. Mistake, or twisting words?
Not that I disagree so much with the vote itself...

My appt. is late, naturally. And you're right, I misread that. I probably would still have voted for him, though.

[skip spence]

You know, I'm fine with ...

++Shasta

[A Little Green]

15 minutes? :eek: Does anyone have the tally? I feel most like voting Shasta right now, wouldn't object to voting someone nice and noncommittal either - except that lynching Shasta could give us more to analyze toMorrow, given that almost everyone has said something about him and he had some pretty strong interactions with a few villagers.


EDIT: x-ed since Lommy, thanks Nog for the tally!

[Pitchwife]

Actually, Zil's sketchy and bordering-on-skewed presentation of Shasta makes me have second thoughts now...

Still, Shasta looks most shady to me, and I think finding out his alignment will tell us something about several people (including Lottie, but not only her). So:

++Shasta

Á vala Manwë!

EDIT: x-ed from #85 down

[Boromir88]

I'm back too, been trying with a vote count...

Pitch
Lottie
Shasta - 5

Uhhhh I'm not too happy with any of those. I think I'm going go random with this vote

Edit crossed with everyone since Nog's. And adjusting the vote count.

[A Little Green]

Uhhhh I'm not too happy with any of those. I think I'm going go random with this vote???

[Nogrod]

Of those who have gathered votes thus far I think Lottie more probably innocent and Shasta looking the most suspicious. Of my five candidates for voting I'd probably wish to see wilwa and Pitch toMorrow with better time to discuss with them.

With Skip I'm not sure if that was a joke or is he deliberately doing something there - which would be a bit to drastic for a wolf... heh, reading the general feeling wishing to lynch Ozban? Really Skip?

[A Little Green]

So who are you guys leaning at, Nogrod, Pitch and Ozzy?With Skip I'm not sure if that was a joke or is he deliberately doing something there - which would be a bit to drastic for a wolf... heh, reading the general feeling wishing to lynch Ozban? Really Skip?Umm, Nog, I believe he addressed the question to Nogrod, Pitch, and Ozzy.

[Boromir88]

???

On a matter of principle, I'm throwing my vote away since this lynch seems set and I don't want to be apart of this runaway lynch Shasta accord.

++Nerwen

[A Little Green]

Not that it makes any difference now..

++ Shasta

Because of what I've said before, don't have the time or energy to repeat everything.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro

[skip spence]

Oh sorry Nogrod it was just sloppy phrasing/grammar...

Was just curious how you guys would vote.

"Nog, Pitch and Ozzy, who are you leaning towards voting for"

...would have been more comprehensible

[Glirdan]

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3
Skip - > Shasta 4
Pitch - > Shasta 5
Boro - > Nerwen
Greenie - > Shasta 6

EDIT: Added Greenie's vote

[Nogrod]

Okay. I hate bandwagons but Shasta is topping my suspicions. And it seems the result is already clear. So carrying my load of the burden.

++ Shasta


Ozzy? Have I lost something here? Who is Ozzy if not Ozban?

[A Little Green]

A quick note: if Shasta is a wolf, I doubt Boro is. Or I don't know actually. Could be. Agh, I'm flip-flopping, looks like it's bed-time. :rolleyes:


EDIT: wow, x-ed since my last

[Ozban]

It may be stupid, or completely out of the league, but...

+ + Legate

To clarify, which I feel I should, at least rudimentary:
I can't be sure of anybody. Eventhough Shasta and Lottie seem strange, mostly that Shasta's opinions of Pitch which seem to strangely fluctuate, (ad. Glirdan's post above).
Legate attacks, but always leaves himself some "escape path", he's too eager to back down. He does seem to try not to offend anyone. Eventhough it's not what I mean exactly, He's way too agreeable (or alibistic, your choice).

Anyway, my sixth sense tells me to vote for him.

I hurry to pub now. But will be back soon.

Later...

[wilwarin538]

So....after quick skim.

Pitch looks fine to me, especially the one that he did in response to one of Shastas (sorry, forgot to quote it and dont want to waste time finding the post number)

Lottie kind of always seems suspicious on Day 1s, it's like a natural thing for her, so I'd rather not vote her.

Shasta, the only thing I don't like is the post where he quoted Pitch and highlighted stuff, cause like Pitch pointed out, none of the highlighted stuff looks bad to me.

Gah, so I don't want to vote any of them, and I haven't had time to look closely at anyone else, and I have 4 minutes. I hate Day 1s, everyone always looks fine to me.

So I'm going to do this:

++Wilwa

Cause I've never done it before, and this seems like a good oppurtunity to.

x'ed with a bunches

[Nogrod]

On a matter of principle, I'm throwing my vote away since this lynch seems set and I don't want to be apart of this runaway lynch Shasta accord.Let this not be forgotten toMorrow if Shasta is innocent!

[Eönwë]

Ok, well I've kind of caught up, but I had to skim read most of the second page.

There's a few comments I'd like to make before anything else.

1. Why Shasta? I really don't find him suspicious at all. I mean, yes, he's defensive, but he just seems like normal innocent Shasta. In fact, he just seems like an easy Day 1 lynch, and I think it's quite likely that one of the Shasta-voters is a wolf who had to vote early.

But then again, this is worse:
I think I'm going go random with this vote
Saying your about to make a random vote is never good, because it seems like your covering yourself against any future effects that might have. So even a little suspicion right now is better than voting randomly.


2. Secondly, all this Cobbler-talk is quite interesting- especially seeing as some people seem like they're changing what their saying to seem more innocent and in line with the crowd.

As for my opinion, I think we should just vote for who seems suspicious, because generally the cobblers seem even more suspicious than wolves, so we'll probably lynch them before the wolves- though obviously it would be much better for us if the wolves kill the cobbler first.

edit: x-ed since Nog's #92

[Thinlómien]

Stop posting.

Shasta has been lynched. Narration will be up in half an hour or so...

[Eönwë]

Well, since Shasta's going to vote and there's no chance of changing anything, I might as well not vote, especially since I haven't really got any true suspicions yet.

edit: x-ed with Moddess and finished sentence

[skip spence]

Ozzy? Have I lost something here? Who is Ozzy if not Ozban?
The very same. I'd though it was a selfevident nick. Bat-references not withstanding.

[Thinlómien]

So they sat down and talked and accusations slowly gathered speed, until when the hint of light grew almost undectable half of the Elves were convinced Shastanis, one of the hunters, was evil.

"He is a strange guy," Loslote said in a quiet voice.
"Yes, just keeps to himself," echoed Inziladun.
"Poor boy! It must be his lack of parents and proper upringing that made him like that," speculated Glirdan.
"It's not the lack of parents that makes him disturbing," said Pitch. "It's the snake."
"Yes," said Green decisively. Which such a likeness to an opossum, she was secretly afraid Shastanis's pet snake might eat her.
"So we shall kill him to save ourselves and his soul," Nogrod concluded solemnly.

Upon hearing his doom, Shastanis stood up quietly. He knew there was no changing the opinion of his companions, yet he wondered...

"I believe you are making a grave mistake," he said quietly. "You can still stop this folly."
"No one can stop this folly," Wilwarin said. "I wish I was safely in the Halls of Mandos..."
"That's where he shall be soon!" the girl Loslote cried out and everybody turned to her. She said: "There is a crack on the floor next to the place I sleep. I do not know how deep it is, but it is deep. Let us cast him there."
"Yes," confirmed Inziladun, and that was all that was needed for Glirdan and Skip to grasp Shastanis and lead him to the direction Loslote was pointing to.

"Please, let me have my last word to you, my friends..." Shastanis said, but Pitch covered his mouth with his hand. "Enough of these evil words, let him be silenced for ever."
Shastanis tried to fight, but Glirdan and Skip held onto him and dragged him to the edge of the crack, the pit in a pit.
The small green snake, hiding until now, darted out from the layers of Shastanis's folded hood, but even quicker than it, the veteran hunter Green snatched it and broke its neck. "Done with the devil," she muttered.
Shastanis let out a wail that was barely muffled by Pitch's hand.
"Let Mandos judge you fairly," Nogrod said. "Namárië."
And with those words Glirdan and Skip pushed Shastanis to the pit.

He screamed, and then there was sickening thump.

"I think he's dead," Ozban said quietly.

Just at the same moment, they heard a few broken notes echoing from the pit. With sickening hearts, they recalled they had heard the tune before, last night and it had brought a little comfort to their nightmare-ridden sleep. Now it was fading away.

"I... I am sorry... so sorry I failed you..." they heard Shastanis's voice echo from the bottom of the pit. Every syllable was an effort for the dying man. "I... I was meaning to tell you that... that last night... I discovered... in a dream... that..."

There was a silence.

"That what?" Boromir shouted.

Only the dulled echo of his words answered. The dreamer of dreams once know as the Seer was gone.


~*~


Night2 has started. Wolves, feel free to start PMing and you and the remaining gifteds may send your picks. Everybody shush up on the thread until dawn!

The Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - murdered in cold blood on Night1
Shastanis (seer) - cast to the pit in the pit on Day1

The Living
Green - veteran hunter with a striking resemblance to an opossum
Boromir - incompetent gatewarden
Eönwë - hunter
Glirdan - local batty scholar
Inziladun - weaponsmith
Legate - jeweller with an affinity to the colour white
Loslote - young tag-along girl with frizzy hair
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter who makes animal statues of wood and likes the colour green
Nogrod - narcoleptic master-hunter
Ozban - young and naive hunter and admirer of Finrod Felagund
Pitch - furrier
Skip - an admirer of Finduilas's
Wilwarin - hunter

[Thinlómien]

Once again, the three tormented souls slipped away to conspire in the silent darkness. The coward sat long awake, wishing she could see or hear something and mortally afraid. Then she too fell asleep. The Hunter slept with her dagger at hand, and the Ranger left her place quietly, wrapped in the cloak she had woven out of her hair. When people had gone to sleep, she had memorised where one of them had laid down and now she crept to him. She could hear his steady breathing: he was already asleep. With a small smile on her lips, she draped her cloak lightly around him. He would be safe tonight, she would take care of that. She sat down and would have watched him sleep if she had only been able to see anything in the pitch dark.

Hours passed, and her concentration started to fail. She was tired. When she was just about to doze off, she heard the barely noticable steps of something big and soft-footed. Suddenly she was all alert. She could hear sniffing noises very close to her and then, the yelp of a scared animal.

"There is something here," she heard an uncertain voice say, definitely Elvish but wolvishly distorted. She couldn't recognise it although it did sound familiar.
"Oh just get on with it and kill him," another voice said, similar to the first one.
"I don't want to. There's some strange power that scares me," the first voice said, defiant.
The Ranger heard two more sets of soft wolf-paws approach. She kept still, hoping her magic would conceal her as well as it protected the sleeping one.
Sniffing sounds. "Enchantments of the West," a third voice said, one that had not spoken before. There was fear in his voice.
"There is some power against us we haven't foreseen," the first voice said, and edge of despair in it.
"You are right..." the second voice said grudgingly. "Let's sleep on it, I do not dare touch this one tonight."

The soft sound of the paws moved away. In the dark, the Ranger smiled. She had scared them away. For a while more, she sat there, then she gently took her cloak from the Elf who was still sleeping, blissfully unaware his life had been within a hair's breadth from being taken to him tonight. Quietly, she resumed her sleeping place by the walls of the pit and had a few hours of sleep before dawn.


~*~


The Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - murdered in cold blood on Night1
Shastanis (seer) - cast to the pit in the pit on Day1

The Living
Green - veteran hunter with a striking resemblance to an opossum
Boromir - incompetent gatewarden
Eönwë - hunter
Glirdan - local batty scholar
Inziladun - weaponsmith
Legate - jeweller with an affinity to the colour white
Loslote - young tag-along girl with frizzy hair
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter who makes animal statues of wood and likes the colour green
Nogrod - narcoleptic master-hunter
Ozban - young and naive hunter and admirer of Finrod Felagund
Pitch - furrier
Skip - an admirer of Finduilas's
Wilwarin - hunter


Day2 has stated. Wolves, stop PMing. Hunter, you may change your pick if you wish. Everybody, you may talk now.

[Boromir88]

At least some good bit of news in that mess of a voting yesterday. :rolleyes: *raises spear in toast to the Ranger*

[Nogrod]

Well, some justice! It's not so dark anymore.

And if the ranger keeps up that work s/he can take the task of our seer in the Days to come! One innocent revealed already.

Oh, sorry, my C.S.I narcolepsy again (it's a commercial break right now). Back soonish...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Great thing, at least this! I must say the yesterDay's complete failure was not very much boosting the hope, but a Night-save is good. I think this had hindered the Wolves quite a lot. Either they have to go for the same person next Night, or just go for somebody else, risking that the same thing might happen again. Ha! I can only think of one downside for the lack of Night-kill: we cannot make any conclusions from it. But I think this is certainly better than a Night-kill: we have basically one Day more.

So about yesterDay... I am still disappointed that by the time the real conversation started, I wasn't able to be around very much, and unfortunately, it will be similar toDay (I will have to vote early - see the admin thread), though I hope that the discussion at least has already started yesterDay so now it will already be in flow while I am here...

The worst thing about the Seer-lynch yesterDay is that it was totally random (obviously, as half of village voted for him), so basically we don't even have any clear lead from the lynch. I think I should look at the voting tally, or somebody should make it (I think Glirdy made one yesterDay). If there are people I am suspicious about, they are especially among the "throwaway voters". Of course, once there was basically unisono lynch, there wasn't much of a thing to do even for an innocent who disagreed: you could either join the mob or just cast your vote elsewhere. From the top of my head, I must say that wilwa seemed okay to me from those people who voted randomly - she sounded genuinely frustrated, while Ozban sort of stood out as the negative example - he voted while there was no real chance of lynching me, and was doing it in the sort of "normal" way, as if his vote could still accomplish something, but most of all with the sort of "alibistic" style the Wolves sometimes have, saying "my hands are clean from the blood of this one". Boro could be either way. Eönwë, who appeared like few minutes before DL and started contemplating on whom to vote, might have been genuine - seems he had a lot to catch up with.

I think there definitely was at least one Wolf among the Shasta-voters, trying to hide in the crowd (unless it was even Lottie who started it, for example). I don't like especially Glirdan and Skip there, their votes are in the sort of convinient place: somewhere in the middle, neither initiators, but still not just the "whatever random last nails to the coffin at the time when it doesn't matter anymore". I have been somewhat suspicious of those two already yesterDay, skip at least was the kind of a person who seemed to echo a lot of thoughts others said without adding much of his own. There was something that unnerved me about Glirdy, but I have to re-read his posts again, especially what he had said about the Lottie-Shasta thing.

And I am also not quite comfortable with Nogrod's vote - in fact, like I said yesterDay, I am not entirely comfortable with him in general - he seems to me a bit more calculative than he usually is as an innocent. Like, when he said "I suspect Shasta, and although I don't like bandwaggons, I will vote him" - that sounded a bit fake. I would have expected the innocent Nogrod to be sort of more, hmm, self-reflective, like, to ask himself: "Oh really? Is it right that I suspect him if all the village wants to lynch him?" And not to just shrug it like this. I would like to take a look at when he first started to suspect Shasta...

Okay, so now on to do it :) And on to see if people post...

EDIT: x-ed with people. But if people post something, I meant...

[Boromir88]

If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.

[Ozban]

Legate I have been voting in synch with my conscience. Eventhough my vote can't accomplish anything, I won't hide in the crowd, I'm not such a hypocrite. I'm not afraid to speak up and fight for what i believe.

As for the ranger, Te Saluto!

And cause everything is said,
Oz retires to his bed.

Good night, fellow corpses.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.
You can try, if you wish. I didn't spot anything this far, at least on first sight; though I am basically rereading the thread now so there is lot of time still...

Legate I have been voting in synch with my conscience. Eventhough my vote can't accomplish anything, I won't hide in the crowd, I'm not such a hypocrite. I'm not afraid to speak up and fight for what i believe.

Fair enough. Of course if people vote like that, it is okay. But Wolves do that too, or a certain kind of them, if they want to seem "noble". I have no problem imagining you as one of that sort - also given that you have never suspected Shasta and Lottie in the first place, not by the slightest bit. It has two edges - you can be either just really having your own mind and seeing things correctly from the very beginning, in that case, fine. But it can also be that you knew they were innocent - because you are not innocent yourself. I don't have any 100% suspicion about you or anything like that, but of the non-Shasta votes, yours is one that looks the most suspicious to me. So I will be watching you carefully.

[Pitchwife]

Yep, go Ranger! And ouch for the lynch.:(

If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.
Unless I'm overlooking something, he didn't talk about or suspect anybody very much except for myself (for reasons which baffle me more than ever now that his role is known), Lottie (defending himself against her) and Greenie (for saying Lottie sounded genuine). Apart from that, he was okay with Nerwen, disagreed with Legate about the cobbler and replied to you about past fake-reveals (the latter more banter than anything else). Nothing that sticks out as a Seer hint to me, so it seems most likely to me he'd dreamed an innocent (possibly Nerwen?) - unless you think he'd dreamed a Pitchwolf and masked the dream behind that bogus case he made against me; which I know he didn't, but obviously I can't prove it.

Speaking of hints, I've got a question for skip:
As it stands I might vote Shasta toDay for reasons I'd rather not disclose at this point...
Care to disclose them now, and explain what this was about? For if it wasn't a fake Seer hint (and implying you might have dreamed a Shastawolf) I don't know what it was.

[Boromir88]

You can try, if you wish. I didn't spot anything this far, at least on first sight; though I am basically rereading the thread now so there is lot of time still...


Well my only reaction so far was it doesn't look good for Pitch.

Post 10.

It's true, you are, and this very trait is what led me to think you evil when last we met. However, given that you've said that you're stirring up the rest of us here... I believe I'm okay with you, for now, Legate.

"I believe I'm ok" and "for now" doesn't sound like a seer-dream on Legate. Just an innocent stating a general innocent-vibe about someone.

However same post...

In other news, I'm finding something slightly off about Pitch. He's only made one post thus far, but as I read it there were points at which I felt he was being awfully... well, the pun is inevitable... agreeable. :p

Now that's odd, he's quick to point out Pitch's only post and then be "slightly off" about him for being...well Pitch.

His next few posts one is a joke to me about a prior game and then clarifying the hunter role with Wilwa. And entirely agreeing with Nerwen (disagreeing with Legate) about the cobbler business. Nothing seems seer hinty to me.

Post 31.

Lottie - That's silly. I clarified a rule for Wilwa. What about that should be worrying? I'll give you a hint - the answer's 'nothing'. And as for being 'nonconfrontational' - I was the first to evidence actual suspicion of a specific person (Pitch, to be precise), so I don't really know where you're getting 'nonconfrontational' from.

The response is to Lottie, but he also points out that he was the first to point any actual suspicion towards anyone and remarks again that the person was Pitch. So I hardly think his Post 10 when he says Pitch was "slightly off" was a bantering, joke suspicion.

Post 33.

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler). I'm going to try and sleep now - although I don't hold out too much hope considering the dark dankness of this cell.

Least ok with Pitch, most ok with Nerwen. The thing about this post is he provides a reason for being most ok with Nerwen, and continues to repeat suspicion on Pitch for no stated reason.

Post 46.

Not really liking Greenie at the moment - mostly for saying Lottie 'feels genuine' when I already pointed out her reasons for suspecting me are bunk.

This would seem to point the possible dream to Lottie and not to Greenie. Greenie's kind of the middle person who got her head stuck into a curfluffle, because Shasta's reasons for not liking Greenie were for what Greenie said about Lottie.

Although the Lottie dream doesn't seem all that probable because Shasta seemed more annoyed that she was suspecting him. Doesn't look much like a dream for Lottie.

Post 58. He quotes a long post from Pitch only to say...

Here you are, Pitch. Bolding mine. I've noticed several other points ("Thanks for the advice" sticks out most noticably) as I've read the Day, as well.

I have to vote in a few minutes. I'd prefer not to turn this into Shasta vs. Lottie, but I will if I have to.

Here again it doesn't seemed like his dream was of Lottie, because he specifically says he doesn't want this to turn into "Shasta vs. Lottie." The "I will if I have to" was probably more that he would of course want to save himself if it came to that.

Post 60.

++Pitch

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.

Make of it what you will, but he seemed stuck on suspicions for Pitch for the entire day. Where Greenie and Lottie he seemed more annoyed with and not particularly suspicious of. And none of the people he said he "liked" didn't seem like very confident "likes" at the time.

Edit: crossed with Pitch. But dinner time for me shall be back late late tonight.

[skip spence]

Oh dear. Has the Power of the Lord of Waters withdrawn from the Great River that flows beside this accursed isle at last? We have slain the one who could've been most useful for all of us!

But onwards, forwards!

I gotta sleep now but two things I leave for you to discuss if you will.

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point. A mistake, obviously.

But Lottie, I think you should explain to us again why you found Shasta suspicious.

Another thing. I suppose that had Shasta dreamed an innocent the first Night we'd find no clues as to who that was. But if he did dream a wolf, wouldn't he have left something for us should he chance to die? And Shasta's main suspect seem to have been Pitch. Could he have dreamed of him?


Aurë entuluva!

Edit: Xed with a few people including Pitch whose question I've answered.

[Nogrod]

It seems we're getting into this old discussion I haven't seen in a long time. So what is the right thing to do when the vote is more or less clear? Do you go with whom you suspect the most plain and simple whatever the result is going to be ("not being a hypocrite" even if it means that someone whom you think is more innocent than others facing the gallows in real terms will die - but you keep your own posture of integrity) or do you choose from those who are near the chopping block and pick the one you're most suspicious of - even if it isn't your number one suspect - or try to drive the lynch to save the one you think the most innocent of the probable lynchees?

Or, which is even better a question: who would like to pose as someone who is right and self-assuredly denying to take part in the lynching of an innocent? Well, only those who know the one that is going to be lynched in fact is an innocent! I do suspect Boro heavily on his last minute declaration of moral highground - and to a slightly lesser degree also Steve (what Legate said him seemingly being in a hurry). Ozban I'm not so sure about: an idealistic newbie or a calculating wolf? I'd lean towards the former at the moment.

And btw. Legate: I'm quite ready to admit that I did suspect Shasta and voting him with what information I had then was the most reasonable thing to do, wagon or not. I said that I don't like bandwagons, but if the wagoned one is one of the few I'd feel even little confidence in voting for, then I'll vote thus.

And anyway, if half the village votes for someone, then it isn't quite so random Legate seems to think (or would like us to think?). Even if all the wolves were included (which I doubt), it would still leave at least four innocents thinking him suspicious - most probably five or even six (I agree at least one wolf must have bite the chance). So what were you aiming at Legate claiming that randomness? You can't say Shasta wasn't looking suspicious with his odd to and fro with Lottie and "out of the blue" suspicions (made incredibly poorly) on Pitch?

Okay, needs to take a short break... too much coming fore puzzling my mind.

EDIT: x'd with many

[Pitchwife]

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point. A mistake, obviously.
OK then, that makes sense... especially as I had the same idea at the time, although her repeated disclaimers about having no proof, possibly being mistaken etc. made me doubt it - but then again, these could have been meant to keep the wolves from guessing her. Then, when you wrote those mysterious lines, I thought it could be you, or at least it was probably one of you two... and together, we got the real Seer lynched in the process:rolleyes:. Bigtime failure.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I have spent now quite some time with re-reading the thread, here are my conclusions about people based on yesterDay. Then I will see the posts of those who posted meanwhile (since my last post) and then go to sleep. So:

Greenie - she is somewhat, hmm, chaotic, there is very little actually from her, but it seems more like her innocent self. Also when I look at her several times remembered list of four options from yesterDay, I don't think she would post something so self-evident if she was a Wolf, it really looks like a sort of personal thought-process; a real one.

Lottie - I don't know what to think. What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her, as she was definitely far more suspicious than Shasta, who, of course in retrospect, didn't really do anything... I am curious to hear more from her, and what she thinks now that her initial gut-feeling suspect turned out to be the Seer.

Nerwen - Nerwen, a question. Whom would you have voted in case you happened to be around earlier? I know it doesn't matter so much anymore and you can make up whatever you wish, but anyway I would like to hear the answer...

Nogrod - like I said, somewhat uncomfortable with him. It is also interesting that in the beginning (post 42), he wanted to be careful about making conclusions about Shasta and Lottie, but later he basically straightaway switched into suspecting Shasta (while leaving Lottie be, saying she gets innocently lynched usually, which is true, though).

Pitchwife - I am wondering about him. I do not find him any particularly innocent, but neither particularly suspicious... one thing seems clear to me: he and Boro are not the Wolves together. Unless there is some Cobbler-signal between them in this, the matter is just very untransparent to me still. Anyway, he seems reasonable in some way... his analysis of Lottie and Shasta close to the end of yesterDay seems genuine. Certainly not my first-hand pick now or anything like that.

Skip - like I said, somewhat "riding the tidal wave". His first post repeats mostly things already said - that won't be bad by itself, but he is hardly constructive (although it's possible he doesn't have time or strength for it, but still); later he is sort of submarinish and his vote for Shasta in a kind of "who cares" manner. Lost in the crowd. Might be he just had a lot to do, but...

Glirdy - okay, here is another of our rather suspicious people. Firstly, he is agreeable ("thanks to Legate for starting the conversation and to Pitch for questioning him") and at the same time (as already hinted in the previously mentioned quote) lays down some basis for suspicion, possibly in case if later it came handy. And he does the same for Pitch too. And joins the sort of suspicion bandwaggon on Shasta and Lottie. Really, honestly?
If there is somebody really suspicious now to me, it is him.

Inzil is another peculiar person. Very, sort of, unreadable. Hard to say anything concrete about him. Mostly he says "okay, thanks, nice" to people who clarify something which they said before to him - it happened two or three times. Sort of, well, it just catches one's attention that he is doing mostly that, of all things. Also, he says it will be too easy to see a Wolf among Shasta and Lottie, and he straightaway dismisses the possibility of them being Wolves both. Just seems a bit too sure, in a similar matter to Ozban. The point is that he does not even question the possibility of their wolfishness on the basis of "no, I think it's just banter" (like Ozzy did) or something concrete, but just "it's too easy". I mean, what kind of a reasoning is that?

Of Boro I can't say much. He remains a questionmark for me, which is slightly unnerving, but well - hope to see more from him in the future, this far he is in no-idea cathegory.

Similar with wilwa, with the fact that generally her actions seem innocentish to me.

Of Ozban I spoke above basically in my previous post... I think he has generally sort of good style, it just remains to be seen whether he is hiding fur behind some mask or not.

And Eönwë... his only and rather late appearence didn't say much, he could have been genuinely clueless innocent or just a Wolf who was also genuinely clueless as well, since he hasn't been around all day. So hope to see more from him still.

Now on to all those I x-ed with...

[Pitchwife]

I've been a bit under the weather all day, so I'm going to bed now and find out whether I'm going to come down with the flu or not. See you tomorrow (hopefully with a clearer head).

[Nogrod]

Well, I need to take back my words on Boro - or then he is the worst fellow-pusher I've ever seen (the stuff was there anyway, and someone would have inevitably found it, so why not do it oneself?).

Lottie - I don't know what to think. What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her, as she was definitely far more suspicious than Shasta, who, of course in retrospect, didn't really do anything... I am curious to hear more from her, and what she thinks now that her initial gut-feeling suspect turned out to be the Seer.Okay, two things with one quote...

I share the anticipation of hearing what Lottie has to say. She tends to be "naturally suspicious" (as I think I phrased it yesterDay) and so her looking that way is no news and says nothing about her lupinity. Also I think that the probability of her being a wolf rested on the scenario of them having a wolf-on-wolf yesterDay. Now as it turned out it wasn't a w-on-w... well, let us hear.

I see Legate keeps repeating this "Shasta was in no way suspicious-looking" -mantra - and it makes me worried. It does feel like the wisdom of the Owl of Minerva only taking to flight after the fact - or of someone who wishes others not to see the facts as they are - namely what Boro brought forwards from yesterDay.

I suspected Shasta for real yeaterDay - and was wrong, and sadly know better now. But him being the seer quite so explains the "out of the blue" consistent attacks on Pitchie - and the oddish case he made against him, and why he didn't vote for Lottie but Pitchie in the end. So those things that made him look so suspicious...

The only thing that bothers me with this interpretation is that it makes Shasta quite a reckless seer. That for sure merits some consideration as well. Is there any better explanation to his dream from N1?


Anyway, bedtime for me as I have an early morning call (1.20am now), but I should have plenty of time later the Day to do some real digging for the first time in this game.

EDIT: X'd with Pitchie

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

And anyway, if half the village votes for someone, then it isn't quite so random Legate seems to think (or would like us to think?). Even if all the wolves were included (which I doubt), it would still leave at least four innocents thinking him suspicious - most probably five or even six (I agree at least one wolf must have bite the chance). So what were you aiming at Legate claiming that randomness? You can't say Shasta wasn't looking suspicious with his odd to and fro with Lottie and "out of the blue" suspicions (made incredibly poorly) on Pitch?
No, not at all. By "randomness" I was referring to the fact that we are unable to track Wolves very well from the lynch - since basically everybody has voted for the same person. But actually I have revised my point about this since then, as there are at least a few votes that stand out in one way or another. But still, it is "randomness" in the sense that we can't say "well this vote made the difference between lynching person X and person Y, what does it say about the voter?"

The wonder about so many people voting Shasta was unrelated to this. I can see why people suspected him, especially e.g. Pitch's questioning of his points was justified, I think (regardless of Shasta's innocence, the points he raised had objectively poor grounds), but I am more like wondering - and I said that if you have read correctly - that I thought Lottie far more suspicious, and wondered why of these two who were in the center of things, people mostly picked Shasta.

I must say now, that from the recent posts I feel a bit better about skip and Nog - the former gives a sort of believable explanation of his thoughts (an explanation less likely for a Wolf to make up, I think) and the latter's response to me sounds also rather genuine. I am getting somewhat more concerned about Boro, but that is mostly because of his strong pressing against Pitch.

As for Shasta's dream, I find it equally possible that he dreamed of guilty Pitch or innocent Nerwen. I see that Boro's points are rather convincing, but still they are not 100% and I am inclined to believe Pitch innocent, so it seems more acceptable for me to think that Shasta dreamed of innocent Nerwen. But nothing is set in stone, I am not going to put anything down as given now. I will however keep considering these two as the most likely options.

EDIT: x-ed with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Left my PC open while getting ready to sleep...
No, not at all. By "randomness" I was referring to the fact that we are unable to track Wolves very well from the lynch - since basically everybody has voted for the same person. But actually I have revised my point about this since then, as there are at least a few votes that stand out in one way or another. But still, it is "randomness" in the sense that we can't say "well this vote made the difference between lynching person X and person Y, what does it say about the voter?"
The wonder about so many people voting Shasta was unrelated to this. I can see why people suspected himOkay. I think I see now what you mean. I read it differently in the beginning ("random" added to how you claimed Shasta was "in no way suspicious").

But as I think we see, the issue seems now to be what Shasta said, and did he leave any hints; did he dream of an innocent or a wolf; did he play carefully or recklessly etc.? And I think a few of us should take an independent look back there so that we could compare what people see.

Okay, off for now.

[Inziladun]

Firstly, hats off to the Ranger and sharp intuition.

If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.

I haven't found anything, beyond what's already been stated: Strong suspicion and a vote for Pitch, some mild suspicion toward Greenie, and apparent trust of Nerwen.

Also, he says it will be too easy to see a Wolf among Shasta and Lottie, and he straightaway dismisses the possibility of them being Wolves both. Just seems a bit too sure, in a similar matter to Ozban. The point is that he does not even question the possibility of their wolfishness on the basis of "no, I think it's just banter" (like Ozzy did) or something concrete, but just "it's too easy". I mean, what kind of a reasoning is that?

I thought it rather evident why they were unlikely to be packmates: Lottie's vote for Shasta seemed too unnecessarily reckless to have been wolf-on-wolf.

Also, I was very curious what skip would say to explain his comment about possibly voting for Shasta and not wanting to give the reasons. That, though I didn't want to say so at the time, was another point in favor of my voting for Shasta. I thought skip could be intimating he was the Seer, especially when coupled with something I'd seen from him earlier. And skip's explanation for that comment was that he had wondered if Lottie wasn't the Seer. A disaster all way round.

x/d with Nog

[Glirdan]

Sorry I'm just waking up from having slept as I worked and have to work again so I will be absent for the better part of the Day.

First off, props to the Ranger! Great intuition on their part

With Shasta being the Seer, I have three possible scenarios running through my mind.

1) He dreamt of Pitch who is a Wolf.

2) His trust in Nerwen (which I had originally thought to be wolfish) could have been because he dreamt of her.

3) Lottie is a Wolf for having had no real suspicion of him in the first place.

Now, it is quite possible that two or all three of these scenarios is right, and it's even more probable that they're all wrong.

However, I am more inclined to believe that at least one of them is correct and that is that the second one.

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).

That is all he ever had to say on the subject of Nerwen (which I do believe I mentioned in my vote post :rolleyes: ). Why else bring it up?

For now I must depart and getting for work, I'll be back on afterwards and post some more and get caught up before leaving for eight hours :rolleyes:

[Inziladun]

With Shasta being the Seer, I have three possible scenarios running through my mind.

1) He dreamt of Pitch who is a Wolf.

2) His trust in Nerwen (which I had originally thought to be wolfish) could have been because he dreamt of her.

3) Lottie is a Wolf for having had no real suspicion of him in the first place.

Now, it is quite possible that two or all three of these scenarios is right, and it's even more probable that they're all wrong.

However, I am more inclined to believe that at least one of them is correct and that is that the second one.

It's certainly plausible that the second interpretation is correct. But what I can't understand is Shasta's persistent targeting of Pitch, which otherwise appears inexplicable. To me, Pitch looked (and still does look) fairly good otherwise.


That is all he ever had to say on the subject of Nerwen (which I do believe I mentioned in my vote post :rolleyes: ). Why else bring it up?

Possibly for the reason he said: Nerwen agreed with him about the Cobbler.

[Loslote]

First off - what the hey? What was that? That bandwagon has got to be one of the silliest bandwagons I've seen in a long time (and the fact that I've seen sillier is just sad. :rolleyes:). And by 'that bandwagon', I mostly mean the...five, was it, people who voted close to each other, towards the end. Did you guys see no problems in this situation?

But Lottie, I think you should explain to us again why you found Shasta suspicious.

I said repeatedly yesterDay: Total. Gut. Feeling. I thought he felt off. As it happens, I was right - he was off. Just in the wrong sort of way. :(

OK then, that makes sense... especially as I had the same idea at the time, although her repeated disclaimers about having no proof, possibly being mistaken etc. made me doubt it - but then again, these could have been meant to keep the wolves from guessing her. Then, when you wrote those mysterious lines, I thought it could be you, or at least it was probably one of you two... and together, we got the real Seer lynched in the process. Bigtime failure.

Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer. Yeah. That went well. Now pardon me while I go head-desk for a few minutes... :rolleyes:

EDIT: xed with Zil

[Glirdan]

Final Post Count from yesterDay:

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3
Skip - > Shasta 4
Pitch - > Shasta 5
Boro - > Nerwen
Greenie - > Shasta 6
Nog - > Shasta 7
Ozzy - > Legate
Wilwa - > Wilwa

Did not vote:
Eonwe, Nerwen

Out of those who voted for Shasta, I'm more inclined to believe that a Wolf is hiding in the later voters, more so in Greenie and Nog. At the time of their voting, Shasta had already garnered enough votes to have him lynched seeing as after Boro had voted, it only left those two along with Ozzy and Wilwa. Even if they had all voted for the same person and had tied up the votes, our Mod Goddess would have flipped a coin as there are no double lynchings, therefore, still a fifty/fifty chance of Shasta being lynched. The placement of both those votes just seems to safe.

I don't know if any of that make sense to anybody else, but I've always had a hard time writing my thoughts out in coherent sentences for this game. :rolleyes:

The worst thing about the Seer-lynch yesterDay is that it was totally random (obviously, as half of village voted for him), so basically we don't even have any clear lead from the lynch.

I hate to be the one to blatantly point out the obvious, but all Day 1 lynches are completely random unless a Seer were to stupidly reveal themselves on Day 1 for one Wolf. And what do you mean, "the worst thing about the Seer-lynch"? You mean there WAS something good in lynching our Seer on Day 1? Because if there is I would very much like to hear what. I see no upside to having lynched our Seer yesterDay. Yes I know I was one of those advocating for it, but that is because I actually had suspicions of him on Day 1.

Ozban sort of stood out as the negative example - he voted while there was no real chance of lynching me, and was doing it in the sort of "normal" way, as if his vote could still accomplish something, but most of all with the sort of "alibistic" style the Wolves sometimes have, saying "my hands are clean from the blood of this one".

I see you're point at the end. Yet he could simply be a mere innocent who did not want to join the mob. May I ask why you are more suspicious of him then say, Wilwa, who not only did the exact same thing as he, but even more so as she was the last to vote?


I don't like especially Glirdan and Skip there, their votes are in the sort of convinient place: somewhere in the middle, neither initiators, but still not just the "whatever random last nails to the coffin at the time when it doesn't matter anymore". I have been somewhat suspicious of those two already yesterDay

Well that's funny because I just went back through your posts and nowhere do you mention having any form of opinion on myself and I think you only mentioned Skip once and that was asking to hear more of him in post #45 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640425&postcount=45)

If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.

I agree and I think this might be it:

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).

He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.

Here's a thought. Maybe it was Nerwen who the Ranger protected? The Wolves would be smart and go through the game thread and examine every last post and think of the possible meanings, especially after having Shasta revealed as the Seer. They already know that Nerwen is innocent, so why not tie up any loose threads and be done with her so that we couldn't have a known innocent? Maybe the Ranger also picked up on it and that's who he/she chose to protect?

\Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point.

Interesting, I never thought of this possibility....But now that we know, it is quite possible that we have ourselves a Lottiewolf attempting a bluff at a Seer and had that ruined Day 1 (well, not ruined if she is a Wolf seeing as it did end up lynching the Seer). Or possibly the Cobbler. Hmmmm.....

What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her, as she was definitely far more suspicious than Shasta, who, of course in retrospect, didn't really do anything...

What I find curious is that you seem to fail noticing that there were some of us who had actual suspicions of him.


And joins the sort of suspicion bandwaggon on Shasta and Lottie.

If by join the bandwagon you mean I went with something that I had actually thought to be suspicious to begin with, then yeah, I guess I did that.

wondered why of these two who were in the center of things, people mostly picked Shasta.

If you would like to know, I generally found more suspicion in Shasta than I did in Lottie and even posted about it with my vote. However, as it stands, I will most certainly like to look into Lottie a little more toDay (if I have the time) after yesterDay's events. But you, sir, are raising my eyebrow more and more and would also like to take a closer look at you as well.

I am getting somewhat more concerned about Boro, but that is mostly because of his strong pressing against Pitch.


Perhaps his strong pressing against Pitch would have something to do with the fact that our dead Seer was strongly against Pitch. I don't know just a theory. I find this suspicion rather disconcerting.

Okay, now to get caught up on the OTHER posts that have been made since I started writing this.

In other words, I know I've cross posted with x amount of people since my last. :rolleyes:

EDIT: Okay I was wrong, x'ed with Zil and Lottie

[Loslote]

He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.

I'd just like to say that, if Pitchie is a dream'd wolf, a packmate would press the Nerwen-dream. But in general Glirdy's tone in this game has been very non-wolfish, and I'm inclined to trust him...or at least, not vote him. ;)

[Glirdan]

Okay, well I sadly must depart for work shortly and will be unable to post until I get off. Hopefully some conversation might happen whilst I'm away

[Boromir88]

Lottie - I don't know what to think. What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her

That was the strangest thing to me about the voting yesterday. I mean usually there's a pretty wide spread and you can be lynched with 3 or 4 votes, but that has got to be one of the biggest Day 1 bandwagons I've ever seen.

I haven't seen that type of vast majority agreement in the village, unless the Seer stepped out to reveal a wolf. Usually once someone gets 1 or 2 votes, with the close nature of Day 1 someone who doesn't agree will step up to defend and warn against a bandwagon. There was no one who did, which means either villagers took the easy vote for someone they thought was acting weird or the wolves bandwagoned the heck out of that to push Shasta as the clear lynch.

For myself, my random vote became more frustration than anything. Because when I went to do a vote count the votes were: Shasta - 3, Pitch - 1and Lottie - 1. I wasn't suspicious of any of those choices and was trying to put another name into the list. At the time my strongest suspect was Nogrod, not particularly strong reasons though. I couldn't get this image out of my head that Nog had this gigantic smirking grin on his face every time he posted. No joke about that, I just imagine him having this massive smirk across his face all Day 1. The reason I didn't vote for him is simply because I think someone is up to something doesn't mean they are necessarily evil. And with Day 1's I tend to let the people who look up to something go and do their thing, just watch them until I can figure them out, and then vote for someone who hasn't left any real impressions.

Then before I even know it Shasta's got another two votes giving him 5 and by that time I basically threw my hands up for the night. He was all but dead and buried. That's the shame about the lynch is by that point when Shasta has the 5 votes, everyone's vote after is virtually useless. I was hoping to try and add some competition and make the last voters votes mean more as they'd be faced with a more difficult choice, but before I could blink Shasta went from 3 to 5 and you can stick a phorc in him at that point.

That Day 1 would make a good psych study though, because usually once you get one dissenter those after the dissenter are more likely to dissent themselves. However, no one dissented, and without a dissenter the rocks just keep piling. Morrrre weight!


Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer. Yeah. That went well. Now pardon me while I go head-desk for a few minutes... :rolleyes:


Oddly enough I actually believe those were your intentions. Complete and total failure on your part. I've been there and done that too though, so yeah, know the feeling.


He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.


And that's what makes me the most wary. I mean would a seer Shasta who dreamt of a Pitchwolf continually just pile on weak, unreasoned suspicions like that on Day 1? Quite bold and reckless indeed and heck if I'd know that.

The only scenario I can come up with that would be Shasta did not dream of Pitch is something that probably would belong in Werewolf twisted lore :rolleyes:. That is, Shasta was doing some twisted double bluff in looking like the seer, but giving a wrong clue to throw the wolves off. I mean when I try to bluff to be the seer, I pick one person for random junk reasons and if I'm right I hope the wolf is nervous enough to bite and if I'm wrong then obviously the wolves know I'm not the seer. So, with Shasta actually being the seer, in order to still look seerish but protect himself from the wolves, his continued pressing on Pitch was almost like a false clue or red herring. And that he was suspicious of Pitch, but hadn't dreamed of him and possibly telegraphing his next dream?

I want to point out that my previous post, which went through Shasta's posts was NOT a "lynch Pitch campaign." We have a dead seer, I want to try and figure out what his 1 dream was so we could get something useful from the mess. The fact still remains he only suspected Pitch for what at the time to everyone else looked like complete junk reasons. I have no clue what it means, or whether his dream was Pitch or not. That's not the purpose of my post, my purpose was to try to organize the Seer's posts into one and find out what, if any, clues were in them.

Edit: crossed with Glirdan

[wilwarin538]

First off, I'd like to say I don't completely understand why Shasta was voted for by soooo many people. I didn't really think he was that suspicious (his case against Pitch was weird, I'll get back to that, but not *that* suspicious) and then everyone just pounced on him. I mean a couple votes would have made sense, but like 7? Seriously...

So I initially thought that Pitchwolf must have been Shasta's dream, but the more I think about it the more it seems way too obvious to me. I don't know if Shasta would be quite so obvious, since that would paint a huge target on his head for the wolvies. An innocent Nerwen dream seems more likely to me, I'll look at his posts again though once I've slept.

And...I'll stop there. I'm going to go sleep and I have the day off tomorrow (save for a nice little pile of homework) so I should be on fairly regularly.

x'ed with Boro

[Nerwen]

Nerwen - Nerwen, a question. Whom would you have voted in case you happened to be around earlier? I know it doesn't matter so much anymore and you can make up whatever you wish, but anyway I would like to hear the answer...
All right. I would have probably voted for Lottie or Greenie (i.e. a throwaway– Nog can make of that what he likes). No, not Shasta. I'm not just saying this to play that annoying game of, "Ooo, look, I kept my hands clean by not voting, now I will act like this makes me morally superior". While I did agree that his and Lottie's interactions might be wolf-on-wolf, I also thought if it was only one of them, Lottie was more likely.

On that note, I think the "Shasta looks wolfier" meme of yesterDay needs examining. I couldn't see that at the time and I don't see it now.

I share the anticipation of hearing what Lottie has to say. She tends to be "naturally suspicious" (as I think I phrased it yesterDay) and so her looking that way is no news and says nothing about her lupinity. Also I think that the probability of her being a wolf rested on the scenario of them having a wolf-on-wolf yesterDay.
No, not at all. Why do you think that?

I see Legate keeps repeating this "Shasta was in no way suspicious-looking" -mantra - and it makes me worried. It does feel like the wisdom of the Owl of Minerva only taking to flight after the fact - or of someone who wishes others not to see the facts as they are - namely what Boro brought forwards from yesterDay.

I suspected Shasta for real yeaterDay - and was wrong, and sadly know better now. But him being the seer quite so explains the "out of the blue" consistent attacks on Pitchie - and the oddish case he made against him, and why he didn't vote for Lottie but Pitchie in the end. So those things that made him look so suspicious...
Oh, yes, I understand why Shasta looked suspicious– and obviously voting for him can't in itself be a sign of guilt– but the thing is, everything you could say about him you could also say about Lottie, and then some. (No, I'm not saying Lottie's necessarily guilty, either– just making a point.) So, I'm honestly quite puzzled why he was the one lynched.

The only thing that bothers me with this interpretation is that it makes Shasta quite a reckless seer. That for sure merits some consideration as well. Is there any better explanation to his dream from N1?
It's been said already– he could have dreamed me as an innocent. However, let us suppose Shasta did in fact dream Pitch– perhaps he was trying to provoke Mr Agreeable Wolf into a response? Or trying to leave a trail back to him in case he died? A bit clumsy, yes, but it was my jewel's first time as a Seer.

EDIT:X'd with Wilwa.

[Inziladun]

Here's a thought. Maybe it was Nerwen who the Ranger protected? The Wolves would be smart and go through the game thread and examine every last post and think of the possible meanings, especially after having Shasta revealed as the Seer. They already know that Nerwen is innocent, so why not tie up any loose threads and be done with her so that we couldn't have a known innocent? Maybe the Ranger also picked up on it and that's who he/she chose to protect?

No reason why it couldn't have played out that way. Only a few know for sure though.


Perhaps his strong pressing against Pitch would have something to do with the fact that our dead Seer was strongly against Pitch. I don't know just a theory. I find this suspicion rather disconcerting.

Seconded. We don't know what Shasta was up to, but his dreaming a Pitchwolf must at least be a strong possibility. Why is someone discussing that a cause for alarm?

All right. I would have probably voted for Lottie or Greenie (i.e. a throwaway– Nog can make of that what he likes).

I think you've said why Lottie would have been an option for you, but out of curiosity, why Greenie?

[Nerwen]

I think you've said why Lottie would have been an option for you, but out of curiosity, why Greenie?

I didn't like the way she said Lottie sounded "very genuine", or whatever it was. I know one can't expect everyone to see things the same way, but I thought it pretty obvious that Lottie, whatever her role, was up to something, and that the reasons she gave for suspecting Shasta were quite contrived– c.f. her own explanation toDay. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640540&postcount=135)

At least, they're the people I was thinking about when I signed off yesterDay. I might have thrown some others into the mix if I'd been around later.

I maintain that bandwagon was weird, and that those saying, "yes, but he WAS suspicious!" are missing the point. Everyone involved was moderately to highly experienced– did it really occur to none of you that a big, near-unanimous bandwagon on Day One probably wasn't the best idea?*

Apparently not. So– I say there was some pretty skilful manipulation going on yesterDay. We may be able to find traces.




*If someone's extremely suspicious, that's different– but once again, I don't see that Shasta was.

[Loslote]

Nerwen's explanation makes a lot of sense, and Greenie hadn't been untalked about - more than one person commented on her post. Coupled with her late bandwagon-vote, she doesn't exactly make my list of people I'm not voting for - which, in case anyone was wondering (doubtful :p) consists primarily of:

Glirdy and Zil as not-evil;
Boro and Nerwen (as intelligent).

Not-trusted:
Pitchie because of uncertainty as to whether Shasta dreamed him evil or not;
Nog because he makes me uneasy;
Legate because he seems just a bit too smooth (don't really suspect him for it, but don't trust him because of it, either);
Ozzy because I don't know him well enough to read him yet (and I can just see the wolves pulling off a brilliant double-bluff by making a newbie seem totally well adjusted);
Everyone Else because I haven't noticed anything about them.

SO yeah. Not going to vote for People I Am Not Voting For. Probably not Ozzy, Nog, Pitchie, or most of the people I haven't noticed. Which leaves Legate, Greenie, or a random sub-ish person. Preferably not random sub-ish person. :rolleyes:

I'll be on again in the morning, but I don't know how much. It won't be sleep time for another hour or so, either, so I'll be around...some...toDay...:rolleyes:

[Nerwen]

Nerwen's explanation makes a lot of sense, and Greenie hadn't been untalked about - more than one person commented on her post. Coupled with her late bandwagon-vote, she doesn't exactly make my list of people I'm not voting for - which, in case anyone was wondering (doubtful :p) consists primarily of:

Glirdy and Zil as not-evil;
Boro and Nerwen (as intelligent).

Not-trusted:
Pitchie because of uncertainty as to whether Shasta dreamed him evil or not;
Nog because he makes me uneasy;
Legate because he seems just a bit too smooth (don't really suspect him for it, but don't trust him because of it, either);
Ozzy because I don't know him well enough to read him yet (and I can just see the wolves pulling off a brilliant double-bluff by making a newbie seem totally well adjusted);
Everyone Else because I haven't noticed anything about them.

SO yeah. Not going to vote for People I Am Not Voting For. Probably not Ozzy, Nog, Pitchie, or most of the people I haven't noticed. Which leaves Legate, Greenie, or a random sub-ish person. Preferably not random sub-ish person. :rolleyes:
Hang on. Why Legate and Greenie over the others in you "not-trusted" list?

[Loslote]

Hang on. Why Legate and Greenie over the others in you "not-trusted" list?

Because the only reason not to trust Pitchie is that he might have been dreamed. Other than that, he looks fine to me. Ozzy is just a "what it" sort of suspicion - hardly a good reason for a vote. And Nog just makes me feel uneasy, which he usually does anyway, so I'm not reading all that much into it. And I do not want to randomly vote for someone I've got no read on on Day 2.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I don't have so much time now, replying to some posts, but not to all... will look at the rest when I come back...

I hate to be the one to blatantly point out the obvious, but all Day 1 lynches are completely random unless a Seer were to stupidly reveal themselves on Day 1 for one Wolf. And what do you mean, "the worst thing about the Seer-lynch"? You mean there WAS something good in lynching our Seer on Day 1? Because if there is I would very much like to hear what. I see no upside to having lynched our Seer yesterDay. Yes I know I was one of those advocating for it, but that is because I actually had suspicions of him on Day 1.
There is of course nothing good at lynching the Seer, but the worst (which is worse than "bad", in case you were wondering) is that it cannot even give us much material to analyse. There would have been something sort-of positive if we could at least get clues from it. But this is pointless, as I have already concluded that there already is something to find there. See above...

I see you're point at the end. Yet he could simply be a mere innocent who did not want to join the mob. May I ask why you are more suspicious of him then say, Wilwa, who not only did the exact same thing as he, but even more so as she was the last to vote?

It is the way it is phrased and the way they use it. The main point is not just the vote itself, but also how the people explain it. Wilwa's explanation seemed innocent, whereas Ozzy seemed more likely fake to me, see above the posts toDay where I am discussing with him.

Well that's funny because I just went back through your posts and nowhere do you mention having any form of opinion on myself and I think you only mentioned Skip once and that was asking to hear more of him in post #45 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640425&postcount=45)
It is possible I didn't mention you, but I was curious about you. Late in the Day, as you know, I didn't have time and so didn't post anything long where I could list my opinions on everybody.

Here's a thought. Maybe it was Nerwen who the Ranger protected? The Wolves would be smart and go through the game thread and examine every last post and think of the possible meanings, especially after having Shasta revealed as the Seer. They already know that Nerwen is innocent, so why not tie up any loose threads and be done with her so that we couldn't have a known innocent? Maybe the Ranger also picked up on it and that's who he/she chose to protect?
That's not a bad idea, of course given if Nerwen is innocent. I am not 100% sure neither of Boro's strong suggestion that it is evil Pitch who was the dream (okay, but now I see he clarified it and said it was meant differently), nor Glirdy's who seems to suggest rather strongly that it was innocent Nerwen... but we'll see. I'll think of it when I come back.

There is something unnerving me about Lottie's recent post, if I say it shortly, sort of hypocrisy or what... it looks like that... ("oh you lynched shasta"). I know an innocent can start a bandwaggon unwillingly, but still this looks fake.

Whatever... gotta really run now! Will be back in several hours.

[Nerwen]

Because the only reason not to trust Pitchie is that he might have been dreamed.
But calling that the only reason is not unlike saying that we are now being held captive by the only evil Maia on this island* It isn't exactly a mere trifle. You went after Shasta in the first place because of his strange vehemence against Pitchwife. Others noticed it too. It seems to have been Zil (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640465&postcount=81) and Glirdan's (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640471&postcount=87) main reason for voting him.

And now we know Shasta was the Seer...

EDIT:X'd with Legate.





*I don't care if the rest of you have given up on ic-posting. I'll do it if I want to. Nyahhh.:p

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I actually have more time than I originally thought I would have and I am back already, so a few comments: I'm starting to feel quite well about Boro (especially his post 139, which seems both okay to me when it comes to its substance as well as it seeming genuinely innocent, which is the main point) and also Nerwen because of her posts and responses (sort of similar case). I am not still so sure about Lottie. For that matter, I would still like to know more about her picks - so is it just choosing the best possible pick for lynch since you don't actually have much of an idea about anybody, do I get it right?

For that matter, I will really have to vote soon (in, say, two hours at most), so I should just start slowly deciding... I have basically two main options right now, that being Glirdy and Lottie.

Otherwise: Boro, Nerwen, Pitch I feel quite good about at the moment, wilwa also although now she hasn't posted much and her last post was nothing special, but I probably won't be around to hear more from her; Ozban I am watching, but convinced to leave him be for the time being and just observe; skip I feel a bit better about from his early toDay posting, Nogrod has still some questionmarks but likewise he is not so heavily alarming now, Greenie and Eönwë I have very little idea about and Inzil too, with some more like gut-feeling of uneasiness with him, but that's mostly it.

I'm thinking that at least one Wolf might be among the two I am considering to vote right now, Glirdy looks a bit more likely to be a baddie to me, but we shall see. I'll check a few times if anybody posts anything, and then I will have to vote and go.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, time to vote is getting near for me. Actually upon reading her posts, I am now inclined to vote Lottie toDay. Seriously, especially her toDay's posts are just... bad. (And that said, the suspicion for the strange way she behaved in relation to Shasta yesterDay still holds, of course, too.)

First off - what the hey? What was that? That bandwagon has got to be one of the silliest bandwagons I've seen in a long time (and the fact that I've seen sillier is just sad. :rolleyes:). And by 'that bandwagon', I mostly mean the...five, was it, people who voted close to each other, towards the end. Did you guys see no problems in this situation?
This is one of the things. I know and can understand, like I have said already, that an innocent can start a bandwaggon which ends up with lynching the Seer, and she does not even know what she does will turn into a bandwaggon (of course she does not!). She can also still scorn the people for lynching the Seer. Of course, she has the right to, it is a harm to everyone in the village. But this way Lottie does it is incredible hypocrisy, I say. "Did you guys see no problem in the bandwaggon I have started?" I mean, I am really curious what would you say had you been around yesterDay at that time. Only if you said "wait, now I am beginning to doubt whether I voted well", I would be able to let you pass with the above. But generally if you vote for somebody, you want them lynched, right? But this way... no word about one's own role in the stuff, although I don't expect you to come crying and begging us for forgiveness, still this is like totally forgetting that you were the one who started it all.

Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer. Yeah. That went well. Now pardon me while I go head-desk for a few minutes... :rolleyes:
I just don't believe it. That looks fake. There's been, btw, already about half a dozen people claiming they voted as they did because they thought somebody was the Seer or something... but this one looks just the least credible of all. It looks fabricated. (And just as a sort of addendum, these rolleyes-smileys all over the place also don't add to the credibility.)

I'd just like to say that, if Pitchie is a dream'd wolf, a packmate would press the Nerwen-dream. But in general Glirdy's tone in this game has been very non-wolfish, and I'm inclined to trust him...or at least, not vote him.

This is one typical thing the Wolves just do: "btw, you people might also want to start suspecting this one, because he did XY, you know. But actually I am not suspecting him. I am just saying, so that you know." Don't like it either.

Nerwen's explanation makes a lot of sense, and Greenie hadn't been untalked about - more than one person commented on her post. Coupled with her late bandwagon-vote, she doesn't exactly make my list of people I'm not voting for - which, in case anyone was wondering (doubtful) consists primarily of:

Glirdy and Zil as not-evil;
Boro and Nerwen (as intelligent).

Not-trusted:
Pitchie because of uncertainty as to whether Shasta dreamed him evil or not;
Nog because he makes me uneasy;
Legate because he seems just a bit too smooth (don't really suspect him for it, but don't trust him because of it, either);
Ozzy because I don't know him well enough to read him yet (and I can just see the wolves pulling off a brilliant double-bluff by making a newbie seem totally well adjusted);
Everyone Else because I haven't noticed anything about them.

SO yeah. Not going to vote for People I Am Not Voting For. Probably not Ozzy, Nog, Pitchie, or most of the people I haven't noticed. Which leaves Legate, Greenie, or a random sub-ish person. Preferably not random sub-ish person. :rolleyes:

And then this last one with the list of people... agreeing with Nerwen and sort of emphasising "pardoning" her (cf. what's been said about agreeable Wolves here, and Wolves can be really nice and pardon people, especially since they know who is innocent and who probably really didn't mean anything wrong by what they did, etc.)...

And where did this Greenie suspicion come from anyway? I don't see her even in Lottie's list. Isn't it per any chance picking on what Nerwen just said about suspecting her, or a slip of mind where she noted to herself - as a Wolf - "Nerwen seemed to suspect Greenie, from now on I am pretending to trust her because of that explanation" and accidentally then messing it up in her head and writing her among the suspects? I can see that happening to a Wolf...

All in all, my vote probably goes there... just going to look if perchance anybody didn't post meanwhile and then I go...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, for epic triple-post...

++Lottie

Vote well, village, and hopefully see you on the following Day... (and in the best case, with a dead Wolf there.)

[Nerwen]

I keep thinking about the "who did Shasta dream?" question. I think it has to be either me (innocent) or Pitch (wolf).

In support of the theory that it was me we have the fact that the wolves and Ranger both picked the same person, suggesting that they were following the same line of reasoning. Now, the wolves, unlike the Ranger obviously wouldn't have seen me as a "dreamed innocent" if they knew that the Seer's dream had been one of them.

In support of the theory that it was Pitch, we have Shasta's otherwise inexplicable "case" on him. We also have, perhaps, the fact of the huge bandwagon. I'm still not sure who was driving the thing, but it surely had wolfish involvement– could the wolves have picked him as the Seer, and taken the opportunity to get rid of him?

Reading through yesterDay, I can't see any good reason for Shasta to act as he did unless he'd got a wolf– and yet Pitch nowhere sounds wolfish, except perhaps in his vote-post.

As for the Shasta-voters... actually they all look quite suspicious after another read-though. I'm not sure what to think yet.

EDIT:X'd with 2 Legates.

[wilwarin538]

That Day 1 would make a good psych study though, because usually once you get one dissenter those after the dissenter are more likely to dissent themselves. However, no one dissented, and without a dissenter the rocks just keep piling. Morrrre weight!

Hmm, perhaps this is what I should do my honours thesis on? ;) But yes, it was a super strange bandwaggon. Look at this:

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3
Skip - > Shasta 4
Pitch - > Shasta 5
Boro - > Nerwen
Greenie - > Shasta 6
Nog - > Shasta 7
Ozzy - > Legate
Wilwa - > Wilwa

Looking at just the placement of the votes I'd say Skip, Pitch, Greenie and Nog have the worst ones. (though I would need to look at their actual reasoning before I could say whether it was actually suspicious) And has anyone realised that nobody else yesterday had more than one vote. Shasta was not that suspicious, at least not so much more so than Lottie. So I don't understand. I'm going to go back and take a closer look at all this.


First off - what the hey? What was that? That bandwagon has got to be one of the silliest bandwagons I've seen in a long time (and the fact that I've seen sillier is just sad. ). And by 'that bandwagon', I mostly mean the...five, was it, people who voted close to each other, towards the end. Did you guys see no problems in this situation?
This is one of the things. I know and can understand, like I have said already, that an innocent can start a bandwaggon which ends up with lynching the Seer, and she does not even know what she does will turn into a bandwaggon (of course she does not!). She can also still scorn the people for lynching the Seer. Of course, she has the right to, it is a harm to everyone in the village. But this way Lottie does it is incredible hypocrisy, I say. "Did you guys see no problem in the bandwaggon I have started?" I mean, I am really curious what would you say had you been around yesterDay at that time. Only if you said "wait, now I am beginning to doubt whether I voted well", I would be able to let you pass with the above. But generally if you vote for somebody, you want them lynched, right? But this way... no word about one's own role in the stuff, although I don't expect you to come crying and begging us for forgiveness, still this is like totally forgetting that you were the one who started it all.


I agree with Legate's point. Like she's saying "what were you guys thinking when you agreed with me about his suspiciousness?". Seriously? Anyone who actually voted for him is not allowed to say "what were you guys thinking". You vote for someone, you obviously want them dead, you can't chastise other people who also voted for them. Admittedly the later voters do look worse, but putting all the blame on them is silliness.


It's been said already– he could have dreamed me as an innocent. However, let us suppose Shasta did in fact dream Pitch– perhaps he was trying to provoke Mr Agreeable Wolf into a response? Or trying to leave a trail back to him in case he died? A bit clumsy, yes, but it was my jewel's first time as a Seer.



And that's what makes me the most wary. I mean would a seer Shasta who dreamt of a Pitchwolf continually just pile on weak, unreasoned suspicions like that on Day 1? Quite bold and reckless indeed and heck if I'd know that.


Ok, I know that it looks too obvious to be Pitch, but are we seriously going to gamble with this? There's a chance that he was Shasta's dream, that should be enough to lynch him. We know Shasta obviously had a dream, and I would think he'd leave some sort of clue somewhere.

See one thing that goes through a wolf's head when they are choosing who to kill is to look for Seer hints that point to them. If we hadn't of killed Shasta and Pitchwolf was indeed his dream just think of what may have happened last Night. Pitchwolf and his mates looking for possible Seers, see Shasta's blatant attack on him, and maybe think "wow, he could be the Seer, but if we kill him and we're right than that will point straight to Pitch" or "he could be the Seer, but Shasta would never be that obvious, he's bluffing". I actually think it would be a smart thing to be overly obvious about a dream like that, it may have protected him from the wolves. Savvy?

And I have to say, knowing Shasta, that if Pitchwolf was his dream and we decide to ignore the hints, Shasta will mass murder us out of frustration. :rolleyes:

x'ed with Nerwen, and just had a thought, Nerwen would be a likely Night 1 dream for Shasta, but I still think we shouldn't let Pitch get by

[Ozban]

After reading whole thread through again, I tend to suspect Lottie. Especially his toDay's posts sound crooked. Then again, I'd say that if Lottie'd be a wolf, she wouldn't cast a vote first. And even without any firm accusation, just a "gut-feeling"? Such an approach seem to risky for a wolf to try it.

I'm not really fond of Legate either, he's still seems somehow... someone described it as "too smooth". His toDay's post did fix his reputation partly, but I shall still observe him closer than the others.

Pitch never sounded wolfish, but that scenario of him being dreamt unnerves me. eventhough it seems to me more likely, that Nerwen was dreamt about. From Shasta's formulation of his trust towards her... Still can't now. (Actually I begin to think it's motto of this whole game: Do something when you know nothing. :) )

Those last two votes, Nog n Greenie, are quite suspicious. Reading through Nog's posts, he remains active, but refrains from attacking anybody. Now I'd really need comparison with some of his older games, whether it's totaly normal or not.

Let this not be forgotten toMorrow if Shasta is innocent!
This speaks for him though, doesn't it?

Serching for traces of some manipulation, as Nerwen suggested, I tend to think that it wasn't Nog's doing. I'm convinced though, that among Shasta-voters were at least one, more likely two wolves.

If there has been any silent intrigues, I'd say that Zil and Gilr were most active at accusing pauvre Seer. It may be genuine, of course, but in a way it seem too concentrated on Shasta, leaving Lottie out, why? Cover?

Also...
You know, I'm fine with ...

++Shasta
What the hell???
I don't know. Seems too carefree, too crowd-loving if you know what I mean.

And...
Not that it makes any difference now..

++ Shasta

Because of what I've said before, don't have the time or energy to repeat everything.
Same.

In the end Eönwë was only one of us that defended Shasta. For that he has my trust. As much as is possible in this game.

Truth is, sadly I know none of you, in-game at least. So it's hard to guess peoples intentions, without comparision with their previous styles.

Later...

[Ozban]

X'ed previous with Wilwa.

You seem quite bloodthirsty ya know?
Your logic is sound though.
Is it your Lupine hunger?
About that we should ponder.
Or you may really fear for your skin.
In that case, we shall protect your kin.
Considering danger upon our head,
we need now more to be said.
Only then we may truth discern,
And to Nargothrond return.

Later...

[Boromir88]

I keep think about the "who did Shasta dream?" question. I think it has to be either me (innocent) or Pitch (wolf).

In support of the theory that it was me we have the fact that the wolves and Ranger both picked the same person, suggesting that they were following the same line of reasoning. Now, the wolves, unlike the Ranger obviously wouldn't have seen me as a "dreamed innocent" if they knew that the Seer's dream had been one of them.

Hmm, usually the early kills are either set for who the wolves think the Seer is, or to be trailless. We know the former option wasn't on their mind last night.

The ranger's mind was on the same page as the wolves last night, but I don't think the seer dream would have been much of a consideration. Like you said, if one of the wolves thought they were dreamed, then they wouldn't be considering killing a "dreamed innocent." But even if they didn't think one of them was Shasta's dream, with how trailless and little Shasta's posts were, they couldn't find any obvious clues that would lead us to the "dreamed innocent" to be all that concerned about killing the "dreamed innocent." That's a bit jumpled, but in summary, I think now you're over-complicating it. :p

In support of the theory that it was Pitch, we have Shasta's otherwise inexplicable "case" on him. We also have, perhaps, the fact of the huge bandwagon. I'm still not sure who was driving the thing, but it surely had wolfish involvement– could the wolves have picked him as the Seer, and taken the opportunity to get rid of him?

Reading through yesterDay, I can't see any good reason for Shasta to act as he did unless he'd got a wolf– and yet Pitch nowhere sounds wolfish, except perhaps in his vote-post.

I agree that band-wagon had wolvery written all over it. With regards to Pitch, the only thing that looks more worse for him is his first response to Lottie (about Shasta) was...

On the Shasta-Lottie thing: Basically, Lottie's saying "I do suspect him in earnest, but I could be wrong" - and of course she could, such is the lot of an ordo, therefore it's trivial and she might as well not have bothered to say it. Peppering her suspicion with disclaimers like that does have a smell of wolvish caution, and it doesn't help that I don't see anything remotely worrying in that quote of Shasta she started her suspicion from.

He would later adjust his tune to suspecting Shasta more and eventually voting for him. Of course people change and waffle back and forth, but it may be worthy to point out. He first seems to regard the Lottie-Shasta trifle as a trivial row between 2 innocents, but changes to suspecting Shasta.

I'm beating on the same drum about that band-wagon (and I'm skeptical of Nogrod suggesting it was justified because Shasta was so obviously suspicious), but Nerwen's absolutely right that's got wolf prints all over it. I think Legate, or Nerwen, or someone had mentioned this early but worth saying again. When you have that type of attention and battle between two people usually there is a much mroe even split and division, and there was none, which suggests wolves pushed a bandwagon onto Shasta.

Now this doesn't mean they were protecting a bandwagon against a wolf-Lottie, maybe they saw an opportunity to implicate both by getting a bandwagon against Shasta, but at the same time framing an innocent-Lottie to make it look like they were protecting her.

I can't tell who drove it either, but I do know this. Greenie gives her 4 possibilities and seems to take the side that Lottie looks more innocent than Shasta. Nerwen interprets it differently and seems to think of the two Shasta looks more innocent (correct?) So there's the split, and you've got Shasta of course saying Greenie's reasons for defending Lottie were junk.

Greenie and/or Nerwen could be wolves here to put more focus on the two, however for now I think they were both commenting on the first spark of action in the day that wasn't cobbler talk. What's more suspicious is everything after the split of opinion, everyone piles onto Shasta.

The talk evolves into a "wolf on wolf" between Lottie and Shasta, and in those situations it really should be 50-50, with how people interpret things differently, but instead it was all a thumbs up for Greenie's post and Shasta looks more suspicious. Which, is also suspicious, I mean what was so spectacular about Greenie's post (no offense Greenie)? What it essentially was is...here's 4 possibilities between Lottie and Shasta, any one of them is equally possible? I also recall a lot of Shasta is getting very aggressive and defensive (so latching onto Lottie's self-admitted "gut feelings") to pile against Shasta.

That whole situation after Greenie and Nerwen's differing opinions (and it's important to add Legate's vote for Lottie because he felt of the two Lottie was more suspicious) is wolvish. You should see a continued even-split in votes and what we get is consistent several pats on the back for Greenie's post, and a move to "Lottie and Shasta look wolf-on-wolf...Shasta looks like the wolf more than Lottie!)

One thing away from the band-wagon yesterday, to say to is about Wilwa's self-vote. It may be the frustration of having a meaningless vote, but it looks pretty weird and flippant. More like a cobbler signal to the wolves though than a wolf casting a meaningless vote. She said she never had the chance to vote for herself, seems to have wanted to and now was as good of a chance as any, but also find yourself a good opportunity to say "Here's your cobbler wolvsies," Wilwa?

Pre-edit: because I've got distracted by an outside convo and this post has taken longer than anticipated, so I'm sure I've crossed. Nerwen's post that I reply to here is the last one I read.

[Nerwen]

I agree with Legate's point. Like she's saying "what were you guys thinking when you agreed with me about his suspiciousness?". Seriously? Anyone who actually voted for him is not allowed to say "what were you guys thinking". You vote for someone, you obviously want them dead, you can't chastise other people who also voted for them. Admittedly the later voters do look worse, but putting all the blame on them is silliness.
To some extent I do see Lottie's point– she just cast the first vote, whereas the actual bandwaggoning happened later. All the same, it wasn't as if she'd made an early semi-random vote and everyone jumped on it– she in fact played quite a role in building up suspicion on Shasta.

Ok, I know that it looks too obvious to be Pitch, but are we seriously going to gamble with this? There's a chance that he was Shasta's dream, that should be enough to lynch him. We know Shasta obviously had a dream, and I would think he'd leave some sort of clue somewhere.
I concur. But it's a bit of a dilemma– do we lynch Lottie, who has behaved suspiciously, or Pitch, who hasn't at all, but who has a major piece of evidence against him?
I'm thinking at the moment it should be one of those two. At least they're not mutually exclusive as villains.

And I have to say, knowing Shasta, that if Pitchwolf was his dream and we decide to ignore the hints, Shasta will mass murder us out of frustration. :rolleyes:
Unless his head explodes first...:D

x'ed with Nerwen, and just had a thought, Nerwen would be a likely Night 1 dream for Shasta, but I still think we shouldn't let Pitch get by
I forgot to say that in my last post, but it's bugging me too.

After reading whole thread through again, I tend to suspect Lottie. Especially his toDay's posts sound crooked. Then again, I'd say that if Lottie'd be a wolf, she wouldn't cast a vote first. And even without any firm accusation, just a "gut-feeling"? Such an approach seem to risky for a wolf to try it.
Actually, casting the first vote is something wolves quite like to do– nobody can really blame you when that person is lynched and turns out innocent. And "gut-feeling" is something wolves can fall back on when they can't fake-up a better case on an innocent.

I'm not really fond of Legate either, he's still seems somehow... someone described it as "too smooth". His toDay's post did fix his reputation partly, but I shall still observe him closer than the others.
I don't like the way Legate went back and forth and seemed to contradict himself yesterDay... but that's all I've got on him at the moment.

If there has been any silent intrigues, I'd say that Zil and Gilr were most active at accusing pauvre Seer. It may be genuine, of course, but in a way it seem too concentrated on Shasta, leaving Lottie out, why? Cover?
It could be. Those two, from memory, were in fact the ones who most pushed the notion that "if one of them's a wolf it's Shasta". ANd Zil was quite twisty.

EDIT:X'd with Boro and Ozban-turned-poet.
EDIT2: word left out.

[Nerwen]

Here's something from early in the Day that I meant to comment on.

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not.
Fair enough, and the point did occur to me too– though I rejected it when she started saying "but I could be wrong". However, why didn't Shasta's flimsy accusation of Pitch also strike you as Seerish?

[Nerwen]

Well, I have to vote now, so–

++Pitchwife the (hopefully) Furry Furrier

Good luck!

[Boromir88]

My Not going to vote for List because they aren't coming off as cobblery or wolfy.

Legate
Lottie
Nerwen
Greenie

Because out of the entire Shasta-Lottie thing they come out looking the most innocent. Nerwen and Greenie could be wolves who wanted to draw attention to it, but it looks more like just commenting on the first real action of the day. What happens afterwards is far more suspicious. Legate because he was the only one who voted (and said) for Lottie, saying she looked more wolvish. He could be a wolf just evening the votes up and seeing whatever way the wind blows, but he was the only one who actually stepped up for Shasta and put some action behind his words by voting for Lottie.

Lottie, I seriously think she is an innocent bystander caught up in a sneaky wolf plot. Because the other thing that is suspicious yesterday is how the convo turned into Lottie and Shasta being "wolf on wolf attack." Leaving the door open for when Shasta turned up innocent the wolves can just say "That must mean Lottie's the wolf!" for the same equally weak reasons that were used against Shasta.

Cobbler suspects and could possibly vote for if I'm not entirely confident in a wolf.

Wilwa
Nogrod

I mentioned Wilwa and my last post and shall wait for a response, but right now that self-vote looks like a cobbler signaling wolves more than anything.

I didn't say much about Nogrod yesterday because I thought then he was acting differently, "different" as in strange and cobblery. However, I didn't want to draw much attention to it because it wouldn't be the first time the seer pretended to be the cobbler to protect from being killed at night. We know now Nog isn't the seer so all of his strange behavior and today insistance to look at those he thinks chose the "moral high ground" to not vote for Shasta just looks straight up cobblery. I mean if I was the cobbler, I would definitely assume there were some wolves hiding in all those Shasta votes, and not knowing who they would be, would try to get attention to those who didn't bandwagon.

The rest of the bunch who are neither coming off as people I would not want to vote for nor the cobbler, and thus possible wolves who I may cast a vote for...

Glirdan
Skip
Inzil
Pitch
Ozban
Eonwe

I don't think I've left out anyone if I did they will also fall under this last list since that means I've clearly forgotten that you are even in this village.

Of 'em Inzil and Pitch look the most wolvish. Pitch for Shasta's posts and how he changed his position on the Shasta-Lottie affair. I'd like to hear from him, but he seems under the weather today. Hope you feel better, but I'll consider it only equally fair treatment to vote for you without being able to come on and say anything in defense. I will now and forever refer to this act as giving someone "The Shasta treatment."

Inzil because he was one of the ones who gave a pat to Greenie's post and vote Shasta. Even if it was only the 2nd vote on him, on Day 1, 2 votes usually a bandwagon doth make and that sparked the end result.

[Loslote]

There is something unnerving me about Lottie's recent post, if I say it shortly, sort of hypocrisy or what... it looks like that... ("oh you lynched shasta"). I know an innocent can start a bandwaggon unwillingly, but still this looks fake.

I voted for the only suspicion I had. I knew it wasn't a strong case. I have never seen this immense of a bandwagon before. Considering that there really weren't very strong reasons at all, I'd have expected another candidate with at least a few other votes. Yeah, it might be hypocritical, but there's a big difference from giving someone their first vote (and not seeing people starting to bandwagon before I left) and voting for someone after a definite bandwagon had already started.

You went after Shasta in the first place because of his strange vehemence against Pitchwife.

No. I went after him because his tone felt off - too defensive/aggresive. As it happens, that was because he was the Seer. I had no real reasons. The Pitchie-thing came after I first started to suspect him, and as far as I remember, was never a consideration in my suspicion.

I mean, I am really curious what would you say had you been around yesterDay at that time. Only if you said "wait, now I am beginning to doubt whether I voted well", I would be able to let you pass with the above.

If it helps, when I read through, I was muttering "are you serious?" and "guuuuuys!" to myself. But, of course, there's no way to prove that, as it was already Nighttime.

And where did this Greenie suspicion come from anyway? I don't see her even in Lottie's list. Isn't it per any chance picking on what Nerwen just said about suspecting her, or a slip of mind where she noted to herself - as a Wolf - "Nerwen seemed to suspect Greenie, from now on I am pretending to trust her because of that explanation" and accidentally then messing it up in her head and writing her among the suspects? I can see that happening to a Wolf...

My suspicion of Greenie started in the first paragraph of that post, and the list led off of that. Possibly not the clearest, but that's the way my thoughts ended up looking.

I agree with Legate's point. Like she's saying "what were you guys thinking when you agreed with me about his suspiciousness?". Seriously? Anyone who actually voted for him is not allowed to say "what were you guys thinking". You vote for someone, you obviously want them dead, you can't chastise other people who also voted for them. Admittedly the later voters do look worse, but putting all the blame on them is silliness.


Agreeing with me is never a smart move, Vanilwuffin. ;) Really, though, I don't mean to put all the blame on them - I'm fully aware that I made a huge mistake yesterDay - but, since I know that I'm innocent, it would not be helpful for me to make posts explaining why I look suspicious as opposed to looking for suspiciousness in other people. ;)

EDIT: xed with Boro and I will be back later, but in a few hours, probably - and *whispers* I'm not really here now.

[A Little Green]

Agh, I was supposed to have hours and hours in early afternoon for playing, turned out I was desperately needed at work, and now I have to run again... Sorry for participating so crappily toDay, will definitely be more active toMorrow! This was totally unexpected and stupid.

So just a quick post - I have read the thread through, not as carefully as I'd like, and at the moment my top suspect is Skip, and I wouldn't mind trying Pitchwife either. Skip's Shasta-vote was opportunistic-looking, and his tone toDay strikes me as false. I'd provide you guys with exact quotes but I'm really in a hurry now. So here we go..

++ Skip

I hope I'm rather less catastrophically wrong than yesterDay. Choose well, sorry for being so inactive toDay, and good Night!

[wilwarin538]

I mentioned Wilwa and my last post and shall wait for a response, but right now that self-vote looks like a cobbler signaling wolves more than anything.

I wasn't around that much yesterDay due to school and dentist, and got home about 15 minutes before DL. I tried to skim through as best as I could, but basically all I saw was a bunch of Shasta votes and I didn't have a full understanding as to why everyone was voting him, and I didn't really see anyone else who looked suspicious (clearly, neither did many others). At that point as well it was going to be him, no matter who I voted for there was not much I could do about it, and I hadn't had the chance to really look at anyone else.

So I could either jump on the bandwaggon, vote randomly for someone else who I didn't find suspicious, I could not vote at all, or I could vote myself. First two were not an option to me, and so I decided to have a bit of fun rather than do nothing, and to me self-voting is very amusing. ;)

There's your response. I'll be back on in a bit once I've eaten.

[Ozban]

++Pitchwife

Got to hurry now, so I won't explain myself entirely. Simply it's too stupid to let it get away.

Won't probably be back before DL.

Choose wisely.

Later...

[Nogrod]

Okay just a few short points from the last posts as I've just read them. Then hopefully something more substantial...

It seems we have a new word in our ww-vocabulary - and there is use for it to be true! The latest mantra I find quite odd is this "those latest votes to Shasta look the most suspicious, don't they?"

We all I think share the amazement looking at the 7-vote tally for Shasta - and that it screams wolf (although let's not totally blind our eyes to the possibility that the wolves just sat back and enjoyed the events...). But by the time myself and Greenie were voting (we x'd our votes) there was little to choose from.

So if we want to look for wolvish hands steering the wagon we're already late looking at those last votes (when I voted Shasta had 5, Lottie & Pitchie 1 each) - the wagon was already out of control.

Just based on "wagonery", I'd say the following are the ones to build it...

Glirdy (3rd vote)
Skip (4th vote)
Pitch (5th vote)

Whatever the alignment of each and everyone of them, here anyway is our wagon.
Lottie started, Inzil made the second (in situation 1-1-1), I'm not saying they are innocents because they were not the actual wagon-builders (well, we can discuss whether giving the second vote is wagoning). Greenie & myself closed it in a situation where it really didn't make a difference anymore.


In the end Eönwë was only one of us that defended Shasta. For that he has my trust. As much as is possible in this game.You still have some things to learn - and you have time. But really.Eönwë's last post was rather horribly suspicious than trustworthy. Don't let the hindsight you have now mix with what you think - and remember, the wolves knew all the time we were lynching an innocent - so they could afford playing the "noble" or "moral highground" who'd be proven right in retrospect - and thus look so shiny in their white armour without any blood on their shirts.

Talking of which: insistance to look at those he thinks chose the "moral high ground" to not vote for Shasta just looks straight up cobbleryOf course we should look at the Shasta voters - we have a dead seer here so of course we have to. It would be the most stupid thing not to. I mean it should go without saying we look closely at such wagons. *enough?*

I have only said we should not forget the others or give them a free pass. I could bet quite a lot at least one wolf markedly did not vote for Shasta. And I might also guess that that person would have made some noise about it (I haven't checked that, but will).

Anyway, back to bussiness now. I raised my eyebrow quite a few times earlier toDay while reading the thread. I'll get back to those issues.


EDIT: bah, Ozban seems to have gone - just as he'd need to read something...

[skip spence]

Okay I'm here now, more or less until DL, though I can't give this my full attention.

Will be reviewing Day 1 first...

[Nogrod]

Shasta's dream?

Looking back at all that Shasta posted on D1 and considering possible hints from the seer, I think we have basically three options: Pitchwolf, Nerwinnocent and Innogate.

Of Legate he says in his first post (with a quote from Legate about him willing to stir discussion):
It's true, you are, and this very trait is what led me to think you evil when last we met. However, given that you've said that you're stirring up the rest of us here... I believe I'm okay with you, for now, Legate.


He refers to both Legate and Nerwen:
I entirely agree with Nerwen on the subject of the cobbler, and disagree with Legate

Of Nerwen he says:
[I'm] most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).

Well?

He thinks he's okay (for now!) with Leg; he has suspected him because of his style but if it's just stirring the discussion, then okay, for now.

Then he disagrees (on the subject of cobbler) with Legate - and agrees (on the subject of cobbler) with Nerwen.

Then he says he's most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).


What about Pitchie then? Well, this was it.
In other news, I'm finding something slightly off about Pitch. He's only made one post thus far, but as I read it there were points at which I felt he was being awfully... well, the pun is inevitable... agreeable.

I was the first to evidence actual suspicion of a specific person (Pitch, to be precise)

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment

Indeed, I marvel at your audacity in suggesting such a thing, Master Nogrod. Holy Elbereth, there are ladies among us, and one of them a young maiden! Have you no decency?


Flattery will get you nowhere.

As for the matter of fake reveals which you broach there, I have yet to witness such an attempt being made successfully, but historical chronicles do mention precedences. Now as you are no doubt aware, the best way for such a fake claimant to fool us would be to sacrifice a real wolf in order to gain our trust, and the cobbler is in no position to do that, even if they were willing to, being as much in the dark as to the wolves' identity as we are. They might, of course, get a wolf lynched by mistake, deeming said wolf innocent, but then that would ill save the evil side. Therefore I don't think the danger of a cobbler fake-revealing very high, considering all sides. A wolf doing it, however, would be quite a different matter, as they could use their knowledge of who is furry and who isn't to lend credibility to their pretended dreams.

On the other hand, the cobbler, or a wolf, might still risk it in the hope to thus draw out the true Seer for the wolves to kill, as you seem to be considering here:

This is a two-edged blade. A false claim that is uncontested for too long and not disproven by mislynchings might be believed over a delayed counter-reveal... I think there are precedences to that in the histories, too. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, and in the meantime I trust in the wisdom of our
Seer to handle these matters without our prompting.
Here you are, Pitch. Bolding mine. I've noticed several other points ("Thanks for the advice" sticks out most noticably) as I've read the Day, as well.

I have to vote in a few minutes. I'd prefer not to turn this into Shasta vs. Lottie, but I will if I have to.

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc. Well?

He singles out Pitchie in the first post with quite a sleight of hand - and comes back stressing that he had made the first actual suspicion of a specific person (and even added that it was Pitchie). And he repeats it and then goes to produce that odd piece of quotes from Pitchie which at least I can't find a decent suspicion even if I try my best.

Finally he will not vote for Lottie to help save himself but goes for Pitchie instead...

Uh-oh.

Some conclusions in a separate post shortly...

[Nogrod]

So?

To me it seems he is acting more or less straightforwardly with Legate and Nerwen. Anyway, it's hard for me to take anything from there as a seer-hint. And if he was leaving hints here, well, ge did make it hard for us to read.

How he deals with Pitchie looks quite monomaniac and out of any proportion to being a straightforward play. It is hard to see that coming out from just Pitchie's posting and Shasta really trying his best to form a suspicion and vote on it - especially as there was a slight possibility some people might vote him because of the attacks of Lottie.


The question then becomes is Pitchie a dreamt wolf or was Shasta trying to accomplish something different?

Someone suggested that he might have tried to pose as the seer to the wolves with a wrong target and thus cover himself from them. But isn't that quite a dangerous tactics? Why single oneself out as a seer - even if a false one in the first place? He might have figured they'd think of him as the cobbler though. But then again, what if he accidentally picked a real wolf? That would be really dangerous - or did he just trust on his psychic abilities not to pick one? Okay, maybe he dreamt of an innocent Pitchie and then used him as his target? Possible...

On the other hand, wouldn't it be just too reckless from him in the first place to come that openly out with a bogus-case if he had a wolf? But like someone (Nerwen?) mentioned, it was his first game as a seer. It is rather unnerving to be one and have a wolf in your hands and feel people suspecting you - and knowing you have to leave early... (heh, when I was a seer the first time I dreamt of wolf-Roa and just couldn't stand quiet but went after her like a raving mad :)). Anyway he shouldn't have been so confident of him being alive the next Day when he left that it feels he'd rather have a pressure to leave something than just play the odd one and leave... Or then not. :confused:


*my brain hurts.*

[Pitchwife]

Back and feeling better, but had no time to more than skim through what has gone on in my absence, so just a few words I want to get out:

According to Occam's razor, the 'dreamed-Pitchwolf-theory' looks like the most probable at the moment, so I can't really fault anybody for wanting to test it. I'd of course rather lynch a wolf, so if I can save myself in any way I will, but if it takes death to clear me, so be it (and then you can all join me wondering what the Udûn our Seer, may he rest in peace, thought he was doing), and maybe the Ranger will choose wisely again and compensate for the lynching of yet another innocent.

I'd just like to say that, if Pitchie is a dream'd wolf, a packmate would press the Nerwen-dream. But in general Glirdy's tone in this game has been very non-wolfish, and I'm inclined to trust him...or at least, not vote him.
Or they might do the same if I'm innocent, hoping for the moral high ground tomorrow; but I guess one or two of them won't be able to resist the temptation to push what looks like falling. As to me, I know he can't have dreamed me, and I think Nerwen is the most likely dream, especially since she looks fine to me in general.
There's still the cobbler, of course, who is in an interesting position now, not knowing whether I'm a dreamed wolf or not, but will probably rather err on the side of caution and try to save me. That in mind, I don't really trust Legate now, who doesn't seem to ponder the possibility that Shasta dreamed me very seriously at all - I mean, I do of course appreciate the support, but really?

EDIT: x-ed from #166 down

[Inziladun]

So just a quick post - I have read the thread through, not as carefully as I'd like, and at the moment my top suspect is Skip, and I wouldn't mind trying Pitchwife either. Skip's Shasta-vote was opportunistic-looking, and his tone toDay strikes me as false. I'd provide you guys with exact quotes but I'm really in a hurry now. So here we go..

++ Skip

That looks a bit odd, really. I don't see how skip could have more against him than Pitch at the moment. If Pitch turns out to be a wolf, Greenie needs some scrutiny.

You still have some things to learn - and you have time. But really.Eönwë's last post was rather horribly suspicious than trustworthy. Don't let the hindsight you have now mix with what you think - and remember, the wolves knew all the time we were lynching an innocent - so they could afford playing the "noble" or "moral highground" who'd be proven right in retrospect - and thus look so shiny in their white armour without any blood on their shirts.

I don't know that I'd go as far as to say Steve was "horribly suspicious" there, but I agree that it doesn't make him look especially good either, despite Ozban's words.

x/d with Nog and Pitch

[Pitchwife]

A question for those (that's you, Zil and skip) who allegedly made the same mistake as me, thinking Lottie had seerish reasons to suspect Shasta: didn't it at least occur to you to give Shasta the same benefit of doubt? I naturally didn't consider it myself, knowing his suspect to be innocent (and was utterly flabbergasted when I read the narration), but since none of you could have known that (except, of course, if you're a wolf!), didn't the possibility at least occur to you?
By the way, in this respect I tend to find skip more genuine, since he gave this explanation without anybody suggesting it and it fits his line about undisclosed reasons yesterDay, whereas Zil only came up with it after both skip and me had already talked about it. For that reason, I'm not so happy with Greenie's vote.

[skip spence]

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not.


Fair enough, and the point did occur to me too– though I rejected it when she started saying "but I could be wrong". However, why didn't Shasta's flimsy accusation of Pitch also strike you as Seerish?

Why not? I suppose that although Shasta's accusation of Pitch also did seem weak (something almost unavoidable on a Day 1 unless a wolf makes a very foolish and blatant mistake I think), Lottie's motivation to attack Shasta was just plain ridiculous if she had honest intentions and as she, as we now know, isn't the Seer.


Really, though, not liking Shasta. Too non-confrontational, and the way he words this especially:

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

I mean, what in the name of Eru Illuvatar could been seen as suspicious in that? Not sure if a wolf would be so careless though...

[Boromir88]

I'm here til the DL. Right now, my vote is leaning towards Pitch.

Where's everyone buggered off to? I was actually hoping for a bit more chatter by the time I got back.

[skip spence]

This passage struck me as rather unnerving:

Because the thing is, as long as we hold up our job in buying the gifteds as many days as we can and avoid the irrationally, more often than not, extremely damaging emotional lynches, than we usually fair very well against the wolves. No stupid lynches, it really is that simple, because everyone's been a wolf here before correct? And don't you just smirk and jump for joy anytime the village manages to lynch one of their gifteds? No stupid lynches, don't do the wolves work for them, and honestly we'll be fine as our chances of winning dramatically go up.
What exactly are you talking about Boro? No stupid lynches?? As if we wanted to be stupid and lynch our gifteds...

[wilwarin538]

So I see people are still rather confused about the possiblity of Pitch being Shasta's dream (I'm seeing lots of "he went after him so much, but that's just so obvious") and I feel the exact same way. So the solution to me seems to be to lynch Pitch. No, he may not look overly suspicious on his own, but our Seer thought he was, and we lynched the poor guy, so maybe we should do what he wanted to do?

If we're wrong than that will suck, and Shasta will have some explaining to do about why he went after Pitch so hard; if we're right than awesome, and we can move on to someone else toMorrow. Cause if we don't do this now, Pitch will still be a major point of discussion tomorrow, and I'd rather not waste so much time. Let's just find out.

++Pitchwife

If he turns up innocent than we can assume that Shasta dreamt Nerwen (or possibly Legate) and then we'll have someone we feel fairly good about, which is a good thing too. It just seems to me to be the most logical course of action, and the only way to have a better idea of who Shasta actually dreamed of, instead of just speculating indefinetely.

x'ed with Boro and Skip

[Nogrod]

While I was reading through the thread earlier I did also take some notes on the developement of the Shasta-wagon. I'm not promising this has every comment on the issue (and will not take on hour to re-check), but it should be quite exhaustive.

Also I have not included my own comments on it as I was doing this (on paper) just to help myself see how it goes. I - or maybe even better, someone else - might go and check them if interested.

I'll drop bolding to save time. Also S = Shasta & L = Lottie. Note also: unless in parentheses, they are not exact quotes but my shorthand...


Here we go.


Leg #35 notes that S&L act curious, like w-on-w; S accuses Pitch randomly like wolves.

Glirdy #37 "I was thinking the same" (about w-on-w).

Nerwen #38 Thirds the idea.

Green #39 the infamous 4 scenarios, stays neutral.

Ozban #44 L&S "just a random recon".

Leg #46 weary of S&L.

Pitch #48 suspects L, finds S innocentish.

Zil #50 S&L "usual selves", but "interplay companionlike". S's quick suspicion on Pitch stands out.

Lottie votes Shasta (#57)

Shasta votes Pitch (#60)

Boro #62 comments on who have stood out but doesn't mention either S or L (I thought of adding this here as it looks interesting in concerto with what he did later).

skip #64 the infamous "might vote S for reasons I'd rather not disclose at this point".

Pitch #66 list-post; puts S&L together "there be a wolf there?"

Glirdy #67 S&L&Pitch, one of the three a wolf?

Green #68 questions S.

Zil #71 L's vote for S speak for them not both being wolves; L&S obvious, too easy?

Green #72 S most suspicious, L quess innocent; not surprised if both wolves.

Green #74 L actually did vote for S? More improbable they both are wolves.

Pitch #75 gives his resons to suspect both S&L.

Leg #78 L more suspicious but lynched on D1 on the previous game.

Legate votes Lottie (#80)

Zil votes Shasta 2 (#81)
"no one else looks potentially as bad".

skip #82 would like to see S rather than L go.

Glirdy votes Shasta 3 (#87)
S&L could both ber wolves but believe S to be one; S on Pitch suspicious.

skip votes Shasta 4 (#94)

Green #95 could vote for S

Pitchie votes Shasta 5 (#96)

Boro #97 not liking the votes, will go random.


And well that's the story of the wagon developing. Rest is history.

Okay. I need a short break now but I'll be back soonish.

Feel free to look at the story meanwhile. I'll have a few comments on it too as I come back.

[Inziladun]

A question for those (that's you, Zil and skip) who allegedly made the same mistake as me, thinking Lottie had seerish reasons to suspect Shasta: didn't it at least occur to you to give Shasta the same benefit of doubt? I naturally didn't consider it myself, knowing his suspect to be innocent (and was utterly flabbergasted when I read the narration), but since none of you could have known that (except, of course, if you're a wolf!), didn't the possibility at least occur to you?

As I already said here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640536&postcount=132), I didn't think Lottie could be the Seer. I considered that skip might be. Since Shasta already looked odd, skip seemed more believable.

By the way, in this respect I tend to find skip more genuine, since he gave this explanation without anybody suggesting it and it fits his line about undisclosed reasons yesterDay, whereas Zil only came up with it after both skip and me had already talked about it. For that reason, I'm not so happy with Greenie's vote.

So skip explained his vote for Shasta without being asked? You (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640526&postcount=122) asked him to explain it, did you not?

x/d with Wilwa and Nog

[Inziladun]

Scratch the last bit. I think I know what Pitch meant now.

[Pitchwife]

Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer.
Fair enough, but I don't think you've convincingly explained yet why you picked out Shasta in the first place. And this
No. I went after him because his tone felt off - too defensive/aggresive.
is not a good answer, for his tone only changed after you accused him first for that utterly unsuspicious rules clarification.

Since somebody (I think Boro, but can't be bothered to check now) pointed out that I changed my mind about the Shasta-Lottie affair yesterDay - yep, I did, and I'm afraid Shasta going after me like he did played a part in that. I probably should have shrugged it off, and was quite willing to do so in the beginning (what Nog has called my 'defensive thoroughness' was mostly for the relish of demolishing that ridiculous case); it was only later in the Day that I had the misguided idea that Lottie could be the Seer, which made the balance shift against Shasta.

As for the building of the bandwagon, if it still matters:
EDIT: x-ed from #85 down
Glirdan's was #87 (but he x-ed himself with a lot of people)
(And yes, I really wavered that long over these few lines. Believe it. I wouldn't lie about technicalities even as a wolf.)

[Eönwë]

Ok, well, I'm still finishing to read, but...

Ouch. Seer. Dead. :( (And I won't take the whole "I-told-you-so" approach, because my non-vote yesterDay was hardly better)

And I don't really think that the Ranger save, however good it was (and let me say here "Good work, Ranger") is really worth the seer, so I disagree with those people in the beginning of the Day who made it sound like that. On the bright side though, it does buy us a Day, so I'm not saying that it's not a reason to celebrate.

Anyway...

How about everyone just uncloaked and we could be done with it by judging on the hairyness of everyone...
*Begins to uncl-* Oh, was that a no? Sorry.



But to more serious business now.

I do suspect Boro heavily on his last minute declaration of moral highground - and to a slightly lesser degree also Steve (what Legate said him seemingly being in a hurry).
Well I had two options:

1. Join in the Shasta-waggon, which I didn't agree with (he just didn't seem any guiltier than he usually does on Day 1).
2. Cast a throwaway vote based on no good reasons, as I hadn't been around for most of the Day.

So I chose option 3: none of the above.


Possibly for the reason he said: Nerwen agreed with him about the Cobbler.Is that really a good enough reason? Especially for a Seer. Then again, you could say the same about Pitch, which wasn't really that convincing.


More to come...

[Pitchwife]

As I already said here, I didn't think Lottie could be the Seer. I considered that skip might be. Since Shasta already looked odd, skip seemed more believable.
Sorry, I got that mixed up. Still, I mentioned that other possibility as well before you did.

So skip explained his vote for Shasta without being asked? You asked him to explain it, did you not?
As you've apparently realized, I asked him to explain his undisclosed reasons, but I didn't suggest the answer he gave. That's what I meant.

[wilwarin538]

This passage struck me as rather unnerving:

Because the thing is, as long as we hold up our job in buying the gifteds as many days as we can and avoid the irrationally, more often than not, extremely damaging emotional lynches, than we usually fair very well against the wolves. No stupid lynches, it really is that simple, because everyone's been a wolf here before correct? And don't you just smirk and jump for joy anytime the village manages to lynch one of their gifteds? No stupid lynches, don't do the wolves work for them, and honestly we'll be fine as our chances of winning dramatically go up.


What exactly are you talking about Boro? No stupid lynches?? As if we wanted to be stupid and lynch our gifteds...

I remember reading that yesterday, I believe I quoted it and said 'hear hear!', because it's so true. And he said it before the whole bandwaggon thing happened; he was warning us not to get in to such a situation, he wasn't chastising us for already being in the situation. If it was the latter I could maybe see why you don't like it, but since it's the former I don't see anything wrong with what he said. (it just makes me wonder if he's psychic)

He just was saying we should pay attention and not let things go out of control, since that usually leads to disaster, and clearly he was right. If more people had been concerned with the fact that votes were piling on to one person way too quickly, maybe it wouldn't have happened. It was a very 'stupid lynch'.

x'ed with 2 Pitch and Eonwe

[Eönwë]

Perhaps his strong pressing against Pitch would have something to do with the fact that our dead Seer was strongly against Pitch. I don't know just a theory. I find this suspicion rather disconcerting.
Erm, isn't that what you're meant to do with the Seer's suspicions?

I thought skip could be intimating he was the Seer, especially when coupled with something I'd seen from him earlier.
What exactly was it that you saw? Tell us now, since we know he isn't the Seer.

However, let us suppose Shasta did in fact dream Pitch– perhaps he was trying to provoke Mr Agreeable Wolf into a response?
Or even if he hadn't dreamed pitch and just suspected him he could have been doing the same.

Final Post Count from yesterDay:

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3
Skip - > Shasta 4
Pitch - > Shasta 5
Boro - > Nerwen
Greenie - > Shasta 6
Nog - > Shasta 7
Ozzy - > Legate
Wilwa - > Wilwa

Did not vote:
Eonwe, Nerwen

Out of those who voted for Shasta, I'm more inclined to believe that a Wolf is hiding in the later voters, more so in Greenie and Nog. At the time of their voting, Shasta had already garnered enough votes to have him lynched seeing as after Boro had voted, it only left those two along with Ozzy and Wilwa. Even if they had all voted for the same person and had tied up the votes, our Mod Goddess would have flipped a coin as there are no double lynchings, therefore, still a fifty/fifty chance of Shasta being lynched. The placement of both those votes just seems to safe.
That's not exactly true, because if they would all have voted for someone that had already been voted and I had too then there wouldn't have been a tie. Just pointing that out.

On the other hand, it's always very unlikely to get everyone to vote the same, especially on Day 1, which is why this much-too-easy-looking bandwaggon is so strange.

I agree with Legate's point. Like she's saying "what were you guys thinking when you agreed with me about his suspiciousness?". Seriously? Anyone who actually voted for him is not allowed to say "what were you guys thinking". You vote for someone, you obviously want them dead, you can't chastise other people who also voted for them. Admittedly the later voters do look worse, but putting all the blame on them is silliness.
I have to agree with this, which is why Lottie looks a bit self-contradictory, and in this case, maybe a bit suspicious too. Though it could be an innocent's confusion and change of mind as well (along the lines of "Well, if it was so obvious that Shasta looked innocent, why didn't you so something about it?"). It's hard to tell.

And I agree with whoever said that all the talk of people voting because of who they thought might be the seer is a little suspicious too.

[Nogrod]

Looking at the wagon one more time...

I'd say Glirdy and Legate were the people who made it move forwards at crucial points - fex. when some others had posted against suspecting them so much or cooling down - followed by Pitch.

Especially Glirdy looks quite bad with all those "I was thinking the same" and just popping in "one of the three is a wolf" + making the wagon rolling with the third vote. But even he didn't do it alone.

[Inziladun]

What exactly was it that you saw? Tell us now, since we know he isn't the Seer.

His first post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640436&postcount=56) was strange, to say the least. I didn't know what to make of it at the time, but when he hinted he had reasons for wanting to vote Shasta it came back to me.

x/d with Nog

[Boromir88]

What exactly are you talking about Boro? No stupid lynches?? As if we wanted to be stupid and lynch our gifteds...

Are you being serious? I think yesterday's lynch is clear enough to classify as a stupid lynch. :rolleyes: But you're reading me wrong and interpretting stuff that just isn't there. I'm not saying anything about, "oh hoi there we like being stupid and lynch our own gifteds." I was trying to remind everyone of the dangers of Day 1.

We can't know a bad lynch from a good lynch until the outcome, but we can at least be a bit more reasonable than piling votes onto one person for trivial and weak reasons.

However, usually if someone can't be around to say anything or defend themselves from weak accusations they're usually given the benefit of the doubt for the day and allowed to respond the next. To keep piling up the posts onto a person who can't defend themselves is a bad decision. (It has nothing to do with taking a "moral high ground" it's just something that more often than not turns out badly. Pitch should know this from his first go as a seer. When he couldn't be at the DL to speak for himself and a bandwagon happened against him).

Also, being "defensive" doesn't necessarily mean a guaranteed wolf sign. So the multiple people ooh...Shasta's aggressive and defensive he's obviously suspicious, without considering he could have very good reasons to not want to be lynched is also a bad decision. It's the same thing when you get the feeling that someone is "up to something"...well yes a seer would probably be up to something, not everyone up to something = wolf.

That is why on Day 1's, I typically try to vote for someone who has left absolutely no impressions on me, because when we can't know anything for sure, voting for the person being "defensive" or the person "up to something," might be a wolf but wolvish behavior and gifted behavior is more similar than they are different. Where someone who is submarining is more than likely an ordo or a wolf trying to hide. Yeah, it sucks if the submarine is an ordo, but it's not nearly as bad of a decision as a vote for somebody who is leaving strong impressions on Day 1. And when you're just starting from scratch you can't tell, it's much safer to watch the person for a day or so, until you get a better idea of what he/she is doing. Instead of basing votes more on emotion because someone's aggressiveness or defensiveness or whatever random easy excuse someone can drum up.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Skip's post this responds to.

[Nogrod]

Tally, anyone?

Suggestions?

As Pitchie himself notes he is the favourite by Ockham's razor - the least complicated theory.

If we're not going for Pitchie (actually his own post of him being the evident choice made me back a step or two from wishing to lynch him), then who?

I was defending Lottie yesterDay because she just get lynched early so often and is for many the "easy lynch". But I must say what she has done toDay hasn't exactly helped me to stand by and defend her.

I could also consider lynching Glirdy for working the wagon at the right times and being the opportunist.

[Inziladun]

All right, I have to go ahead and vote.

Whatever Shasta was thinking yesterDay, there's only one way to be sure of Pitch. If we give him a pass, I feel it'll be hanging over us the rest of the game.

++Pitch

Sorry if you're innocent, mate. But I can't come up with a plausible scenario for Shasta to have done what he did which doesn't involve you being a wolf.

[skip spence]

Argh! too much to read!


He just was saying we should pay attention and not let things go out of control, since that usually leads to disaster, and clearly he was right. If more people had been concerned with the fact that votes were piling on to one person way too quickly, maybe it wouldn't have happened. It was a very 'stupid lynch'.

Still don't get it I'm afraid. It was day 1. As it chanced, unfortunate circumstances (and/or devious calculation) made us lynch our Seer. Had he turned out to be a wolf (which obviously seemed likely to many back then), we'd be cheering and calling it a job well done.

[Boromir88]

If we're not going for Pitchie (actually his own post of him being the evident choice made me back a step or two from wishing to lynch him), then who?


Yeah...and would it be the wisest of things to have another massive bandwagon of votes? Umm, at least in this situation, there's not much risk to lose. If Pitch's is a wolf it's possible the wolves just want to go ahead and sacrifice him for the day and so that's why there hasn't been much opposition? And Pitch himself has kind of thrown in his accepted fate. But that is making me wary to have another 7-8+ votes onto one person where what can we then figure out from the votes.

Although, there's also the risk of passing up on a wolf because we're too nervous that it's so "obvious."

[Loslote]

Erm...I'm back...took longer than I'd thought. Still don't really have much of what could be called suspicion. I'd be willing to vote Greenie still - Legate not so much anymore. Is it just me, or is the same thing as happened yesterDay starting to happen to Pitchie? Yeah, there are better reasons, but I'd like to see at least some other options on the board toDay.

EDIT: xed since Boro's 186.

[skip spence]

But okay, you do have a point too. It's better to have some alternatives, more might be learned from that.

So as the votes are now piling up in Pitch I'll go for:

++Legate

he says a lot but isn't really helpful (that theoretic Cobbler-talk is a prime example)

[wilwarin538]

I believe it is:

Legate -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Pitch
Greenie -> Skip
Ozzy -> Pitch (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch (3)
Inzil -> Pitch (4)
Skip -> Legate

x'ed with a few, added Skip's vote

[Nogrod]

Whatever Shasta was thinking yesterDay, there's only one way to be sure of Pitch. If we give him a pass, I feel it'll be hanging over us the rest of the game. You're quite right. But if Shasta was playing a game after all? And another 7 votes would be kind of disaster if we got it wrong.

Pitchie 4
skip & Lottie & Legate1

is the tally...

X'd & corrected the tally

[Nogrod]

But okay, you do have a point too. It's better to have some alternatives, more might be learned from that. It didn't exactly help to bring in a new one...

EDIT: oops I realised the other one of those who had votes was you yourself skip... so if you really believe Lottie is innocent, then understandable.

[Pitchwife]

Didn't really have time to look at everybody thoroughly, so these are rather impressionistic...

TRUST
Nerwen
Boro (for now, but I still have to look at him closer if I survive this)
Nog (no matter what I thought about him yesterDay, he looks like impartially trying to find out the truth toDay)

GREYISH AREA
Greenie
Zil
Glirdan

DON'T TRUST
Lottie (now I know she wasn't the Seer)
Legate (I have a strong hunch he's the cobbler)

NO CLEAR IDEA ABOUT
everybody else

[wilwarin538]

Although, there's also the risk of passing up on a wolf because we're too nervous that it's so "obvious."

The chance of that is the reason I'm ok with this bandwaggon. Yes, it could be a disaster, but if we don't go for it then we'll just be talking about it again tomorrow, and there is a pretty good reason to lynch him (possible Seer dream), when for Shasta there wasn't as strong of a reason. It's not the same situation.

x'ed with Nog and Pitch

[Pitchwife]

Ah what the heck, it's worth a try...

++Lottie

If I die, good luck village, and I'll keep my fingers crossed for the Ranger. Down with the wolves!

[Boromir88]

The chance of that is the reason I'm ok with this bandwaggon. Yes, it could be a disaster, but if we don't go for it then we'll just be talking about it again tomorrow, and there is a pretty good reason to lynch him (possible Seer dream), when for Shasta there wasn't as strong of a reason. It's not the same situation.

Also, what will we learn from these last votes which artificially make it closer so there is no "bandwagon" again? Then people can cop out easily and say "hey, I was just trying to make this a bit closer and meaningful?" Nah, I'll stand by this one today...

++Pitch

[Eönwë]

Well, these are the options as I see them, in terms of the Pitch and Nerwen thing:


1. Nerwen is a wolf and Pitch is innocent. If we take any of Shasta's suggestions as hints, this is very unlikely.
2. Pitch is a wolf and Nerwen is innocent. Obviously, both would go for Nerwen's innocence.
3. Both are wolves. Both would go for Nerwen's innocence.
4. Both are innocent. Pitch would go for Nerwen's innocence, Nerwen would be unsure and wouldn't want to be become a wolf target.

Cobblers, on the other hand:

1. Pitch is a Cobbler and thinks Nerwen is a wolf. Would go for Nerwen's innocence.
2. Pitch is a Cobbler and thinks Nerwen is innocent. Would again go for Nerwen's innocence
3. Nerwen is a Cobbler and thinks Pitch innocent. Would go for Pitch's guiltiness.
4. Nerwen is a Cobbler and thinks Pitch wolvish. Would go for her innocence.

In summary:
Pitch will always go for Nerwen's innocence. Nerwen is more likely to go for her innocence too as a wolf, and as an innocent may be undecisive.

Also, if we lynch Pitch we will almost know whether Nerwen is innocent or not. Don't know whether that's a good idea.


PS. This post got messed up so I had to rewrite it. I probably x-ed with hundreds.

edit: I did.

[Nogrod]

Of skip, Legate and Lottie I could go for Lottie.

[Loslote]

Skip is starting to look a bit off, but I don't know that I want to vote for him without having a chance to really look at him. I think I might end up voting Pitchie, simply because there is a reason for it, and I, once again, have no real suspects. Bleh...fine...

++Pitchie

If you're innocent, sorry.

EDIT: xed since Vanilwuffin

[Nogrod]

Dratted pageturn....

++ Lottie

[Eönwë]

++Lottie

Will explain later.

edit: x-ed with many.

[Thinlómien]

It's DL, please stop posting. Pitch has been lynched. Narration to follow...

[Thinlómien]

When the second day in the horrible pit came closer to an end, they decided to do away with Pitch, the furrier. Some of the Elves thought he was the one Shastanis had tried to warn them about, some of them said he hadn't exactly said anything like that and other interpretations of his lost message were more likely.

"I have to say I understand if you want to kill me," Pitch said solemnly. "After all, I have all this fur on me." He pointed to his clothes which were mostly made of beautiful furs.
"This is getting furrier and furrier..." Nerwen mused.
"Very funny," Pitch retorted. "I may be a furrier but under all these furs I'm not any furrier than any of you, actually, I am less furry than three of you for sure."
Ozban exchanged glances with Nerwen. "It might not be getting furrier all the time but it's sure getting blurrier all the time, if you get my drift."
"Stop making silly jokes!" Wilwarin said. "It's getting dark. If we want to kill him as long as we can still see something, we're in a hurry."
"In a hurry to find out if he's furry," Inziladun agreed, nodding sagely.
"But let's not let this turn into a flurry," Boromir said, grinning.

"Now that was outrageously bad!" Pitch burst out. "I've had enough! What do you want to see?"
Without waiting for an answer, he took of his cloak. "Let's see... linings of - squirrel fur." No one said anything.
He removed his beautiful white vest. "The best you can get... ermine fur."
Everyone watched him in dull silence. He laughed. "What about my boots then? Fur linings here too. Blue fox fur, rare and silky."
The other Elves exchanged glances. The man must be crazy. Then he took his scarf, a heavy scarf of rough grey fur, not beautiful but warm and definitely something of a status symbol.
"Do you know what this is?" he asked.
"Err... fur?" Loslote suggested.
"Hey that rhymes..." Nerwen whispered, but her voice was topped by Pitch's shrill shout:
"Yes it's fur. It's wolf fur. You got me, didn't you? Now what should I do? Throttle myself with it?" His tone was mocking, but the folly of the proud house of Fëanor burned in his eyes.
"Yes," said Ozban quickly, before anyone else could say anything.

"So be it! Have what you will and you'll see that an Elf can wear a wolf's fur and not be one himself!"
With these words, Pitch wrapped the scarf around his neck and pulled from both ends.
The others watched him in horror, knowing he would not succeed, some of them wanting him dead all the same.
"Let me give you a helping hand," Wilwarin said, almost gently, and grabbed one end of the scarf. Without any words, Inziladun was there with her, pulling the other end. Soon, Pitch collapsed on the stone floor, breathing no more.

In the disappearing light, they looked at his body, wondering if he would transform into a foul beast. But Pitch's body was not any furrier than any of theirs save the wolf skin scarf around his neck.


~*~


The Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - murdered in cold blood on Night1
Shastanis (seer) - cast to the pit in the pit on Day1
Pitch (ordo) - driven crazy and throttled in his fur scarf on Day2

The Living
Green - veteran hunter with a striking resemblance to an opossum
Boromir - incompetent gatewarden
Eönwë - hunter
Glirdan - local batty scholar
Inziladun - weaponsmith
Legate - jeweller with an affinity to the colour white
Loslote - young tag-along girl with frizzy hair
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter who makes animal statues of wood and likes the colour green
Nogrod - narcoleptic master-hunter
Ozban - young and naive hunter and admirer of Finrod Felagund
Skip - an admirer of Finduilas's
Wilwarin - hunter


Night2 has started. Wolves may talk with each other and they, ranger and hunter may send me their picks any time.

[Thinlómien]

As the shadows settled on the pit, all the Elves resumed their nightly habits: most of them went to sleep, but four stayed awake. The three werewolves crept to hold their dark council, the Ranger took his net of hair and made his way where one of the Elves was sleeping.

He had chosen a different Elf tonight, one he feared was in danger. He sat by her head and spread the enchanted cloth over her. He leant against the wall, smiling again. It felt so good to do good, to keep up hope in this abode of despair. He fingered his hair, cropped short. He remembered his mother and how she had taught him to use his own body as a vessel of his power. She too had once made an enchanted cloth of her hair although of course there had been nothing to fear in the West.

Then he had started his long path on the lore of power and music, all the ancient arts. People had started to think him a bit weird, but he had never minded. He had strength in him and he could make his beautiful and potent music. It was enough for him, it had always been.

He had almost lost track of time musing his past when he heard the soft paws. He was not surprised or afraid this time, he knew what was to come. So he just kept his calm and his smile - he would manage to save another life. How sweet was that?

"There he is. Apparently sought a bedmate tonight..." an amused voice whispered.
"You didn't expect us tonight, did you?" a second one chuckled. "And we didn't expect to catch such a big fish, did we?"
"No answers, eh? Is our little spell-weaver perhaps afraid?" a third voice said.

A cold dread settled in the Ranger's heart. Finally he realised they had come for him, not for her. He tried to come up with anything in his lore that might help him, but he couldn't think of anything. Not in this dark place, surrounded by these dark beasts. He tried to reach for the net of hair, but a heavy clawed foot stepped on his wrist.

He sat still for an eyeblink and then a powerful paw came whizzing through the air, a wolf's paw hit his head with supernatural strength and chopped it off his shoulders.

In the morning, the Elves found Glirdan's bloody body and his mutilated head in the middle of the pit. Remains of a torn cloth of hair were scattered around him, and when they touched them, they could feel a hint of some great protective power and the presence of Glirdan. The man himself, though, was uncompromisingly dead.


~*~


The Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - murdered in cold blood on Night1
Shastanis (seer) - cast to the pit in the pit on Day1
Pitch (ordo) - driven crazy and throttled in his fur scarf on Day2
Glirdan (ranger) - decapitated by a wolf's paw on Night3

The Living
Green - veteran hunter with a striking resemblance to an opossum
Boromir - incompetent gatewarden
Eönwë - hunter
Inziladun - weaponsmith
Legate - jeweller with an affinity to the colour white
Loslote - young tag-along girl with frizzy hair
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter who makes animal statues of wood and likes the colour green
Nogrod - narcoleptic master-hunter
Ozban - young and naive hunter and admirer of Finrod Felagund
Skip - an admirer of Finduilas's
Wilwarin - hunter

Day3 has started. You know what to do and what not to do.

[Loslote]

...man. The wolves just have all the luck. :(

Anyway, I'll be around for a very short while, but then I'll be gone for an undetermined (probably long) time. ToDay will not be a good Day for Lottie!Participation.

[Inziladun]

...man. The wolves just have all the luck. :

The luck of Gorthaur himself, it would seem. Why Glirdan?, is the question.

[Nogrod]

A rollercoaster-ride...

Okay. My narcolepsy has turned worse, from C.S.I. to 24... I'll be in when I wake up from it, like an hour+. (I lost the last two episodes of 24 last week and they are re-showing them both right now)

See you soon.

Why Glirdy? Indeed. And not taking the "free kill" Nerwen?

[Boromir88]

The luck of Gorthaur himself, it would seem. Why Glirdan?, is the question.

And should we try to see who he guarded the previous night, or would that be a fruitless endeavor?

Edit: Crossed with Nog...you're going to have to explain how Nerwen would have been the "free kill?" That seems like a pretty strong assumption of who the wolves selected the previous night, as if you know?

[Nogrod]

*Great they have long commercial breaks*
Edit: Crossed with Nog...you're going to have to explain how Nerwen would have been the "free kill?" That seems like a pretty strong assumption of who the wolves selected the previous night, as if you know?After Pitch turned innocent (not Shasta's wolf-dream), I thought it was either Nerwen or Legate who was Shasta's dream... and I'm now quite positive it was Nerwen the Night before.

I was writing in a hurry... like I am now. *Goes off to be back*

[Inziladun]

First off, props to the Ranger! Great intuition on their part

Agreed. Well done, mate.

With Shasta being the Seer, I have three possible scenarios running through my mind.

1) He dreamt of Pitch who is a Wolf.

2) His trust in Nerwen (which I had originally thought to be wolfish) could have been because he dreamt of her.

3) Lottie is a Wolf for having had no real suspicion of him in the first place.

Now, it is quite possible that two or all three of these scenarios is right, and it's even more probable that they're all wrong.

However, I am more inclined to believe that at least one of them is correct and that is that the second one.



That is all he ever had to say on the subject of Nerwen (which I do believe I mentioned in my vote post :rolleyes: ). Why else bring it up?

Now, here he says he thinks Shasta dreamed of an innocent Nerwen, and not a Pitchwolf. On the last bit, he was saying that Shasta's precious few words about Nerwen didn't make sense unless he'd dreamed of her. Actually, there could have been other possibilities, a fact I brought up myself to him.
Now others, namely Legate, had also been pushing for the Nerwen stance, so I don't see why they'd have keyed on this.

Some of this next was a post count, which I edited out.

He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.

Here's a thought. Maybe it was Nerwen who the Ranger protected? The Wolves would be smart and go through the game thread and examine every last post and think of the possible meanings, especially after having Shasta revealed as the Seer. They already know that Nerwen is innocent, so why not tie up any loose threads and be done with her so that we couldn't have a known innocent? Maybe the Ranger also picked up on it and that's who he/she chose to protect?

This had to have been what sealed Glirdy's fate, since I don't think he posted anything else at all that Day. Since he's dead, it would seem the wolves found his description of the save accurate enough to believe he was the Ranger, as proved true.

[Nogrod]

Ok, Jack Bauer is still alive... but the Western civilization, as we know it, is still hanging on a loose thread. *wonders how come?*


Boro, here's my explanation you asked for - and I think it has enough ideas to be shared in length for other people to reflect on.

So I was reading the thread through two hours before the game started more or less secure it was not me whom the ranger saved the Night before - and thus more or less confident I'd be alive toDay.

It all seemed to go down to Nerwen being the one.

Pitchie was not a wolf so that was not Shasta's dream. That was what I thought his "hint" was yesterDay, as you can read from there. His other comments all seemed to be in-discussion like. So where was I wrong?

I still agreed with what you said Boro, that knowing Shasta, he would have left a hint of some kind, and if it was not Pitchie, there had to be another one. So armed with that I went back to the thread and well, there seems to be no better candidate for his N1 dream than Nerwen.

Why so?

Shasta said of Legate that he's okay, for now, because of what he was trying to do (stirring the discussion). Well, a seer would not say that ("for now") of someone he has dreamt of - but rather on someone whom he might check out later. Later he strongly disagreed with him on the cobbler, but I'd not take it as anything else than just disagreeing on a subject. The "for now" seems to propose he was maybe considering to dream of him but had not done it on N1. How he talked of Legate would surely be an odd and inconclusive way for a seer to say "this guy is innocent" - I mean surely the posterity would not have caught that.

Also her suspicion with Greenie was clearly based - underlinedly so - on her thinking Lottie (who attacked him) to be genuine.

What he said about Lottie you all can see was from pure annoyance... and him not wishing to vote for her is a point indeed. (Well, now as I rethink this for the hundreth time I do actually see another scenario here: Shasta dreamt her an innocent and was frustrated seeing her doing what she did - and therefore declined on voting her in the grandiose manner he did, with the risk of worsening his own chances of survival)

Not taking in the latest scenario (which I came to think of only now), it seemed that Nerwen was the clear answer - as he had to leave a hint of a kind.

What I thought was specifically this:
I entirely agree with Nerwen on the subject of the cobbler
Now that bolded word seems like unnecessary thing. And add to that, that he made a special declaration later that he is "most okay with Nerwen". It's like two notes on the same thing, Nerwen's innocence.

Keeping in mind that was all he said of others, it was the evident conclusion. And I had just reached that conclusion when the Day broke... and 24 started...



Anyway, I think there are more interesting questions to be made.

Like why didn't they kill Nerwen, or if it was someone else who was protected on N1, how did they come up with killing Glirdan? (Inzil seems to have a scaringly ready answer to that!) Or were they up for Glirdan already the Night before? And if so, then why? Is there any evidence against them from Glirdan?

Or how did the wolves react to the "easy scenario" -voting yesterDay? Did they just join the flock or did they try to get away from it - knowing Pitchie was innocent as they did? I do think the voting was odd, once again, and there were more than enough good excuses for the wolves to vote this way or that.


Okay, it's late and I need to go to sleep quite soon but I'll go back to look at the voting at least before I resign for a while.

[Nogrod]

In retrospect it is easy to say, that the beginning of D2 was really odd as no one seemed to pay heed to the issue we'd face that Day. Though for wolves it was not a retrospective thing: they must have known the situation and its implications from the get go...

There was a serious issue with Pitch to be dealt with - like he himself said that by the Ockham's razor he's the one to check out... and to be fair, we hit the ideas only when we do.


So how did it start?


Boro and I just commented on the ranger-save.

Legate made a long post speculating on this and that but not touching the issue.

Boro says Shasta would have left a hint.

Ozban answers Leg's question on him.

Legate says he didn't find anything from Shasta's posting. (!!!) And comments on Ozban's answer.

Pitchie says Shasta might have hinted on innocent Nerwen because he couldn't have hinted at Pitchwolf (which we now know is true). NB. See how a known innocent acts in comparison!!!

Boro comes with his analysis of Shasta's posting and saying the inevitable: on the basis of Shasta's posting, Pitchie is the one to suspect.

Skip crossposts with Boro and defends his "not willing to disclose the reasons" by saying he thought Lottie was the seer. Wonders if Shasta would have left some hints, maybe Pitch! NB. That was a sneaky way of hinting at it (remember he crossposted) while not committing to it!

Nog speculates about the interpretation of last-minute votes - and goes out saying "too much coming fore puzzling my mind" (I had seen Boro's post about Shasta & Pitch and skip's defence while previewing the post).

Pitch comments on Skip.

Legate makes a list of people - for Pitchie, no mention of his possible role in relation to Shasta! Light defence of him - but in a roundabout way...

Nog comments on Shasta's actions and says him being the seer could explain his suspicious-looking attack "out of the blue" on Pitch - but feels it problematic interpraetation as it would mean Shasta was quite a reckless seer.

Legate answers a question to him by me, wonders why people thought Shasta more guilty than Lottie, then says: it is equally possible Shasta dreamt of Pitchwolf or Nerwinnocent; says Boro's points are convincing but still thinks Pitchie is innocent (what?), believes Shasta dreamt of Nerwinnocent (what? compare to the earlier "equally possible").



Bah... I'm not going to continue on this as it looks like it takes hours and I think I've found enough for the work for now. I really would like to hear what Legate has to say of this record.

To me it looks like someone who knew very well Pitchie was innocent but who wished to lay low as not to be seen as one not too keen on raising the discussion or hammering it out. I know him to be such an intelligent guy that it totally baffles me he does not entertain the possibility Pitchie is a wolf earlier - and when he feels forced to take sides he nicely takes "the right side" against "all evidence" we had thus far (and not discussing the evidence but just taking sides).

Or is he the cobbler? That could explain a lot as well...

[Boromir88]

Nogrod good enough for me. :) When I asked it was kind of a spur of the moment thought, like...wait why would he assume Nerwen was the "free kill?" Not thinking about the lynch yesterday where we now know Shasta could not have dreamt of Pitch.

Also, taking into account what Inzil has found today (readily available indeed!) it appears our Ranger was telling us he guarded Nerwen the previous night. Which the wolves would probably have been looking for and thus were able to target Glirdan.

Edit: crossed with Nog

[Boromir88]

To me it looks like someone who knew very well Pitchie was innocent but who wished to lay low as not to be seen as one not too keen on raising the discussion or hammering it out. I know him to be such an intelligent guy that it totally baffles me he does not entertain the possibility Pitchie is a wolf earlier - and when he feels forced to take sides he nicely takes "the right side" against "all evidence" we had thus far (and not discussing the evidence but just taking sides).

Or is he the cobbler? That could explain a lot as well...

Could be. I believe it was Pitch who brought that up yesterday. The cobbler would have been in a peculiar situation of what he/she should do. Not knowing anyone's role whether to defend him and focus everything away from Pitch or just go on with what was turning out to be the easy lynch yesterday.

[Inziladun]

Like why didn't they kill Nerwen, or if it was someone else who was protected on N1, how did they come up with killing Glirdan? (Inzil seems to have a scaringly ready answer to that!) Or were they up for Glirdan already the Night before? And if so, then why? Is there any evidence against them from Glirdan?

"Ready answer"? Not at all. I'm going on the assumption that Glirdan had to have done something to paint a target on himself, and since he posted so little, and talked quite a bit of the Ranger and the Ranger's picks, it doesn't seem to need a lot of deductive acumen to find the reason he was picked. My point is that his scenario of "what if Shasta dreamt of Nerwen" apparently had some merit to it, since they obviously did target him. That would seem to look good for Nerwen, also.

x/d with Boro

[Nogrod]

I'm off to sleep, but here's my two cents on the situation.

With the lucky strike of the seer, who attacked Pitchie full frontal with odd reasons and got lynched on D1, the wolves must have "known" that Pitchie was the lynch of the Day yesterDay.

So first I thought I should find those who went for lynching Pitchie the strongest, but then I realised that at least smart wolves would like to stress the opposite, or at least try to downplay the scenario to look good afterwards.

So here's why I'm looking at you Legate...

For now I'm thinking Boro and Nerwen look good both for their attitude towards Pitchie - seeing the situation, making a case of it but at the same time taking the innocent's reservations - and their general reasonableness (Nerwen also because of the probable seer dream).

Legate and wilwa look suspicious on the account of trying to evade the Pitch-issue. And Lottie, for other reasons (=yesterDays posting with all those scenarios of her intentionally playing the seer after getting caught).

I first added Zil to this list for his "ready quotes" for what the wolves thought... but looking at his answer here I must agree it wouldn't take but a look back at what Glirdy said... something I haven't done myself.

Back later toDay.

Someone should check the voting - and especially the reasons given, and how they relate to what the people have said earlier. I'm not sure how much we can read from those as it would have been easy for a wolf to either back the lynching of Pitch or be against it, but it would be good to have that on our sight for review anyway. Sometimes the small details open the answers...

[wilwarin538]

Gah, and I felt so good about Glirdypie this game.

I think this is the likely scenario:

ShastaSeer dreams of an innocent Nerwen, and leaves his various hints.

GlirdyRanger catches the hints and protects Nerwen.

Wolfies also catch the hints and try to kill Nerwen. Fail.

Next Day, Glirdy basically outlines that same scenario.

Wolfies see that as a Ranger hint. They could go for Nerwen who is basically a proven innocent and can't be protected a second Night in a row, or they could go after a likely Ranger and not have to worry about him anymore. Choice B is clearly what they went for.

So now we have a very likely innocent in Nerwen, but no Ranger or Seer, and Nerwen will likely be killed toNight. The Hunter definitely should not reveal any time soon.

I'm gonna sleep, then I have Church in the morning, but I'll be on all afternoon. I'll list some suspects then.

x'ed with nog

[wilwarin538]

Legate and wilwa look suspicious on the account of trying to evade the Pitch-issue.

Evade? I was one of the firsts to vote for him! I was going on all Day about how there was a chance he was guilty so we had to lynch him to find out. He sadly turned out innocent, but we had a very good reason to go for him.

[Nogrod]

Just a minute... (they always say smoking is bad for you, but once again a cigarette gave me a question)

After the Night-kill is announced people wish to find out who were after the deed and why they picked the one they did. Some go for the previous Day's votes, some go for hints, seer-hints, what have you, some go for general patterns, some for what the killed said, some for what others said of the killed etc...

So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.

Okay, I'm not sure I can express what I want to say... but it just feels odd you only come up with those quotes... and kind of do nothing else to constructively help bringing any ideas to the fore. Blah. Language fails me here.


Wilwa: Now this is a complicated issue... I read the early hours of the Day2 (I had no time to read it through to the end) and you did downplay the idea - while keeping the door open when the discussion was brewing. I don't remember when you voted or with what reasons, but it is a delicate thing.

Let's put it this way: not all those who voted Pitch were wolves and not all those who voted someone else were not innocents. Or vice versa. We can't make our judgements based on that alone. In this kind of situation we have to look at who reacted and in which way on which part of the Day (the general feeling being this or that at that exact time). So voting him as one of the first is no explanation.

Actually, if you think of it, it would be a good place for a wolf... :)

Yeah, time-issues etc... I mean it is not simple.

[Inziladun]

So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.

Why look at Glirdan? Do you really need an answer to that?
And what I found out? That he probably would have looked like the Ranger and that's why he was killed.

As for anything else he said on Day 2, (which amounted to three posts, only two of substance), he did say (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640542&postcount=136) that he thought the wolves in the Shasta voters would have been the later ones, and he singled out yours and Greenie's. Is that the 'summary' you had in mind? :rolleyes:
Also, he questioned Legate some, and said he wanted to "take a closer look at [Legate]". However, since it was known at that point that Glirdan could not be the Seer, I see little chance the wolves would have killed him for that, if Legate was one of them.

[wilwarin538]

Wilwa: Now this is a complicated issue... I read the early hours of the Day2 (I had no time to read it through to the end) and you did downplay the idea - while keeping the door open when the discussion was brewing. I don't remember when you voted or with what reasons, but it is a delicate thing.

Let's put it this way: not all those who voted Pitch were wolves and not all those who voted someone else were not innocents. Or vice versa. We can't make our judgements based on that alone. In this kind of situation we have to look at who reacted and in which way on which part of the Day (the general feeling being this or that at that exact time). So voting him as one of the first is no explanation.

Actually, if you think of it, it would be a good place for a wolf... :)

Yeah, time-issues etc... I mean it is not simple.

Well, I'm not sure what you're seeing. My first post I wasn't positive about Pitch, I talked about Nerwen maybe being the dream, but all my posts after that I stressed that Pitch should be the lynch, very strongly. I guess you must really just be looking at the very start of the day (when I only had the one post).

And I agree that the way that lynch went it will be much harder to look at people based on votes. Even if not everyone agreed on his suspiciousness, it was still pretty clear he'd end up being the lynch. It was like no one really wanted to, since the only reason was because of the possibility of him being Shasta's dream (he wasn't overly suspicious on his own) but everyone kind of knew it was still a good idea to do it (even Pitch realised that).

So a wolf could easily vote him and say 'oh well, he seemed to be a seer dream, of course we had to give it a try', while a wolf could have also voted for someone else and say 'Pitch wasn't suspicious enough on his own, and the seer hints were too obvious'. So a wolf could have gone either way and their votes wouldn't look that bad.

These were the votes yesterDay, just to see:

Legate -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Pitch
Greenie -> Skip
Ozzy -> Pitch (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch (3)
Inzil -> Pitch (4)
Skip -> Legate
Pitch -> Lottie (2)
Boro -> Pitch (5)
Lottie -> Pitch (6)
Nog -> Lottie (3)
Eonwe -> Lottie (4)

So all but Greenie and Skip voted for either Pitch or Lottie.

Now those who didn't vote for Pitch. If we hadn't of lynched him we could have wasted a whole other day discussing the possibility of him being the Seer dream. Did some people perhaps want us to kill someone else so that we'd waste another Day talking about Pitch? I'd see that as being something the wolves would like. Get us to kill a different innocent, and than know that we'd go after InnocentPitch toDay. That's two Days safe for them. That may be stretching a bit, but it's not an impossible scenario.

x'ed with Inzil

[Loslote]

Right, well, I was hoping to see a bit more before I got back...as it happens, I generally find myself agreeing with Vanilwuffin and Nog, trusting Zil, and flip-flopping about Boro. I won't have any chance at all to get on in the morning, so I'll have to vote insanely early toDay. :(

So far, I'm not going to vote for:
Zil
Vanilwuffin
Nerwen
Nog

I probably won't vote for:
Boro, who's been making sense and posting a lot, and hasn't struck me as at all wolvish.
Ozzy, who, for a newbie, is doing extraordinarly well and has given me nothing suspicious to worry about.
Greenie, actually - after looking back over her posts, I'm feeling a lot better about her.

Which leaves:
Steve
Legate
Skip

None of those three am I particularly suspicious of. :( I dunno...maybe Skip more so than the other three, but still, I don't have much on him.

Oh, and just a note - Nog could easily fit in the 'probably' section better than the 'definitely' section in terms of trust, but since he's making a lot of sense, he got bumped up a section.

[Loslote]

Really? Nothing? Right, well, I have to vote now, so after reading through the thread, I'm going to:

++Skip

Because his tone feels off, his votes thus far have been rather poor (basically cementing Shasta at four votes and introducing Legate when there hadn't been much suspicion of him and there really was no chance of lynching him at all) and because I don't have any stronger suspicions.

[Ozban]

Reading through all that is surely puzzling. I've had few Legate-180s.
Thing is that there is still eleven of us, 3 puppies, 1 traitor, a hunter and 6 ordo's.

From what I think:

trust: Nog
Nerwen
Eonwe

suspects: Legate
Skip
Inzil
Lottie

Puzzled by: Boro
Wilwa

Greenie is somehow quiet, or so it seems, but i don't have anything against her.

I'll be here later in the afternoon. So I'll try to sum more then.

Later...

[skip spence]

Man, this has been a very unfortunate start to the game. First the Seer, and with him he takes an innocent, and now our ranger! I'm not too happy about how Shasta singled out someone he didn't know the role of, that made Day 2 an all too easy ride for the wolves.

What Nogrod says pretty much mirrors my spontaneous thoughts of how things have played out.

With the lucky strike of the seer, who attacked Pitchie full frontal with odd reasons and got lynched on D1, the wolves must have "known" that Pitchie was the lynch of the Day yesterDay.

So first I thought I should find those who went for lynching Pitchie the strongest, but then I realised that at least smart wolves would like to stress the opposite, or at least try to downplay the scenario to look good afterwards.

So here's why I'm looking at you Legate...

For now I'm thinking Boro and Nerwen look good both for their attitude towards Pitchie - seeing the situation, making a case of it but at the same time taking the innocent's reservations - and their general reasonableness (Nerwen also because of the probable seer dream).

Agreed that the wolves would have had no need to push the lynching of Pitch. Nor would they stand out for participating in it, mind you. Seeing how our Seer had singled him out on Day 1, The noose was tightening around Pitch's neck pretty much from the start.

I also agree that Legate is beginning to look bad. Will review his actions now...

[skip spence]

Legate Day 1:

His first post includes this paragraph which in retrospect made my hair stand up, there is something very unnerving about it.
It is true what Nogrod said here, that we are lucky for no drastic twists which sometimes come from the minds of those who set-up such schemes as the one we have gotten ourselves into... If there is anything that troubles me now, it is the selection of people, because basically all of you, my friends, are the ones I consider of the most bold and clever, in one way or another, and I would not like any of you to be on the side of evil...
A possible parallel is how Glirdan was caught as the ranger for talking about the ranger in third person... Very clever wolves indeed :rolleyes:

He then went on to start this cobbler talk that took up much of Day One as far as discussions went.

Then, after some seemingly meaningless chatter Legate is first to raise concerns about that Shasta-Lottie exchange.
The last exchange between Shasta and Lottie made me curious a bit, I wouldn't have thought Shasta strange by himself, but the way Lottie pointed it out seems rather weird - but Shasta's reaction likewise. His reaction was a bit, well, aggressive? To such a minor thing (or so it would seem). But the funniest part was Lottie's backing away after that. And the sort of repetitive "I think you are suspicious, BUT in fact I do not", which immediately made me think of Wolf-on-Wolf accusations, which are just a theatre for us... Not to say that Shasta's initial suspicion of Pitch could well be a simple random accusation made by a Wolf in order to have some good person to vote for toDay...

Well it's too early for any good suspicions, but this just raised my attention. As with everything, noting this down and looking forward to see how the Day continues, especially from the two...

Later Leggy responds to Greenie who voices concerns that this talk concerning cobblers in general is a distraction.

You can read a lot from people's reactions - actually, that's the only way you can read something on Day 1 (since you don't have any evidence yet from the Night-kills) - and that's what I planned to do (instead of just in-character banter or random "I think XY is a Wolf, because I don't like his avvie!"). And people react, speak their minds and so on, and that's the whole point...
Yes, but what can people's reaction to general ideas on how to deal with a cobbler, that we have yet no idea who he or she is, do to help us? I fail to see any use in that discussion, it strikes me as a distraction only.

Legate than post a few longish but pretty hollow posts. No strong opinions on anybody or anything, and seems content to continue to discuss general game-play and such...

Eventually he votes Lottie rather apologetically:

Secondly, as for Lottie's vote for Shasta... now of course it might be "they think we are W-on-W, now let's show them they were wrong, and in the best case, they will cease suspecting as and not even lynch any of us toDay!" I mean, just look at it, people really are dropping suspicions after this... I don't know if I shouldn't, too. I would, personally, now prefer to lynch Lottie to shasta, because she was the one who made the vote, so if it was like I just outlined above, then I find her more likely guilty (or if just one of them is a WW, she is more likely to be a Wolf just trying to lynch innocent shasta now, since all of the innocents would have two options, so of course she'd want to make us lynch the other person. But then again, if she is innocent, what else should she do). Why I don't want to lynch her so much, however, is also that she was lynched on Day 1 last game too... but well, well. I will now just take a look at the list of players and see if there isn't any other possible pick...
...
++Lottie

Also of interest is how Ozban votes Legate
+ + Legate

To clarify, which I feel I should, at least rudimentary:
I can't be sure of anybody. Eventhough Shasta and Lottie seem strange, mostly that Shasta's opinions of Pitch which seem to strangely fluctuate, (ad. Glirdan's post above).
Legate attacks, but always leaves himself some "escape path", he's too eager to back down. He does seem to try not to offend anyone. Eventhough it's not what I mean exactly, He's way too agreeable (or alibistic, your choice).

Anyway, my sixth sense tells me to vote for him.

Day 2 to come...

[skip spence]

Legate Day 2.

Starts by saying how bad it is that the Seer was lynched and how good it is that the ranger made a save.

Also singles out three people whom he suspects based on the events of day 1, namely Me, Glirdy and Nogrod.
I think there definitely was at least one Wolf among the Shasta-voters, trying to hide in the crowd (unless it was even Lottie who started it, for example). I don't like especially Glirdan and Skip there, their votes are in the sort of convinient place: somewhere in the middle, neither initiators, but still not just the "whatever random last nails to the coffin at the time when it doesn't matter anymore". I have been somewhat suspicious of those two already yesterDay, skip at least was the kind of a person who seemed to echo a lot of thoughts others said without adding much of his own. There was something that unnerved me about Glirdy, but I have to re-read his posts again, especially what he had said about the Lottie-Shasta thing.

And I am also not quite comfortable with Nogrod's vote - in fact, like I said yesterDay, I am not entirely comfortable with him in general - he seems to me a bit more calculative than he usually is as an innocent. Like, when he said "I suspect Shasta, and although I don't like bandwaggons, I will vote him" - that sounded a bit fake. I would have expected the innocent Nogrod to be sort of more, hmm, self-reflective, like, to ask himself: "Oh really? Is it right that I suspect him if all the village wants to lynch him?" And not to just shrug it like this. I would like to take a look at when he first started to suspect Shasta...

Leggy then has a short exchange with Ozzy questioning his vote and motivations for it.

With post #127 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640531&postcount=127) he makes a list, with rather lengthy explanations which basically boils down to him suspecting everyone a little bit without making any strong commitments. He fails to see anything particularly bad about Pitch despite Shasta's trail that most everyone else picked up on. He also maintains that Shasta was not that suspicious.

Here he does acknowledge that Shasta might well have dreamed Pitch though, interestingly...
As for Shasta's dream, I find it equally possible that he dreamed of guilty Pitch or innocent Nerwen. I see that Boro's points are rather convincing, but still they are not 100% and I am inclined to believe Pitch innocent, so it seems more acceptable for me to think that Shasta dreamed of innocent Nerwen. But nothing is set in stone, I am not going to put anything down as given now. I will however keep considering these two as the most likely options.

Then he makes a 360 and seemingly concludes that nothing can be learned from Shasta's lynch (though the phrasing here is a bit muddy, not sure if I follow what you mean, Legate)
There is of course nothing good at lynching the Seer, but the worst (which is worse than "bad", in case you were wondering) is that it cannot even give us much material to analyse. There would have been something sort-of positive if we could at least get clues from it. But this is pointless, as I have already concluded that there already is something to find there. See above...
His case agaist Lottie is quite convincing though. Does raise a few good points against her:

Okay, time to vote is getting near for me. Actually upon reading her posts, I am now inclined to vote Lottie toDay. Seriously, especially her toDay's posts are just... bad. (And that said, the suspicion for the strange way she behaved in relation to Shasta yesterDay still holds, of course, too.)
First off - what the hey? What was that? That bandwagon has got to be one of the silliest bandwagons I've seen in a long time (and the fact that I've seen sillier is just sad. ). And by 'that bandwagon', I mostly mean the...five, was it, people who voted close to each other, towards the end. Did you guys see no problems in this situation?
This is one of the things. I know and can understand, like I have said already, that an innocent can start a bandwaggon which ends up with lynching the Seer, and she does not even know what she does will turn into a bandwaggon (of course she does not!). She can also still scorn the people for lynching the Seer. Of course, she has the right to, it is a harm to everyone in the village. But this way Lottie does it is incredible hypocrisy, I say. "Did you guys see no problem in the bandwaggon I have started?" I mean, I am really curious what would you say had you been around yesterDay at that time. Only if you said "wait, now I am beginning to doubt whether I voted well", I would be able to let you pass with the above. But generally if you vote for somebody, you want them lynched, right? But this way... no word about one's own role in the stuff, although I don't expect you to come crying and begging us for forgiveness, still this is like totally forgetting that you were the one who started it all

Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer. Yeah. That went well. Now pardon me while I go head-desk for a few minutes...
I just don't believe it. That looks fake. There's been, btw, already about half a dozen people claiming they voted as they did because they thought somebody was the Seer or something... but this one looks just the least credible of all. It looks fabricated. (And just as a sort of addendum, these rolleyes-smileys all over the place also don't add to the credibility.Okay, for epic triple-post...

++Lottie

Vote well, village, and hopefully see you on the following Day... (and in the best case, with a dead Wolf there.)

Here we go, it's the Shasta-Lottie-Pitch thing once again. So far everything coming out of that triad has been very unfortunate for us Elves, the first two turning out to be a Seer and an ordo. Wouldn't it be horrible if we went on to lynch Lottie and she too turned out innocent!?

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

[Nogrod]

I have some time in my hands right now and will go checking the voting from yesterDay.

Just two points before I do that (and you can thus see where I'm coming from reading the votes).

I do think that for a wolf the most persuasive option yesterDay was voting Pitchie with the crowd. It gathers the least attention and is easy to explain the next Day. So I'd bet that at least two of our three wolves voted for Pitch - or would be very surprised if they went the other way. Voting someone else would be just too reckless attention-grabbing.

Although I must say that wilwa has a good point there in saying that the wolves (and the cobbler) might have wanted to see someone else lynched yesterDay. If that would have happened we'd have Pitchie along and there'd be the same insecurities on him. But had they dared to try that so openly, grabbing all the attention? I mean they could win one Day but in the worst situation expose themselves, basically cancelling any advance they'd gained by not lynching Pitchie?

Okay. Going in to read back.

[Boromir88]

I found out I can't be here for the DL today and won't have much time, so I'm going to catch up in the thread and then gotta vote.

[wilwarin538]

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

I agree with this. They could both end up being innocent, but I see it very unlikely that they are both wolves. I feel very mixed up about the two of them. Some things they say seem very innocent to me, while others jump out as guilty. I think I'll need to take another look at them, but as it stands now I wouldn't object to voting for either of them.

Now for everyone else, I have some vague opinions. I'll be going back through everything soon so this could change, but just off memory and gut feelings, this is where I'm at:

Leaning guilty:

Lottie
Legate
Eönwë (I'll admit, that is purely a gut thing, this could change once I go back and look more closely)

Leaning innocent:

Nerwen
Boro
Nog

Very neutral:

Greenie
Inziladun
Ozban
Skip

[Nogrod]

I'm still reading yesterDay's posting but while doing that I ran to my own post discussing the oddity of D1 Shasta-wagon.

So Lottie gave Shasta the very first vote in the game. Inzil gave him the second personal vote (making it 2-1-1). Technically I'd say those are not yet bandwagoning - which doesn't mean they are innocents.

But looking at the wagon itself which practically sealed Shasta's fate, it was made by:

Glirdyranger (3rd vote)
Skip (4th vote)
Pitchinnocent (5th vote)

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents. :confused:

[Boromir88]

Well, that was of little help. I'm having no idea what to think or feel as my creative streak has now been lost with my mind. :rolleyes:

Other than I think Nerwen was the one protected by Glirdan the previous night and is therefor most likely innocent. She could still be the cobbler of course (what rotten luck would that be?), but is not in anyway looking like one right now. I'd still like to see more posts from her, because overall I've liked reading her posts.

Wilwa seems a bit feistier and aggressive than her normal charming, relaxing butterfly persona. This could be from a combination of past experiences as a queen wolf with Zeus and now Glirdan's death. :p But I agreed with her about Pitch yesterday, and despite what Nog said earlier today, she never wavered. A wolf could push for the easy lynch, but I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else. I would have expected the cobbler to waver and be unsure on how to deal with Pitch.

Oi, who to suspect though...all I ever was warry on Nog about was uneasy gut feelings. Feeling better by him today. His voting has certainly been questionable, but I think he always showed fair caution towards Pitch yesterday and tried offering different ideas. One of the wolves then could have piggy-backed on to claim they weren't going to vote for Pitch because of what happened with Day 1 on Shasta.

Although, like wilwa said yesterday that is a completely different situation. At least the way I see it, we had substantial enough reasons to suspecting and voting for Pitch, and Pitch knew it too. He really had no defense, other than having no clue why Shasta suspected him the way he did.

++Eonwe

I know it's kind of crappy to do this, but I'm going to gone for the rest of the day. Those last minute, right before the DL posts are just confusing me and impossible to read before the DL is up. Also, his voting has been suspect with abstaining from voting on Day 1. Although, understandable because at that point no vote would have mattered. But then then Day 2's vote for Lottie which he cryptically said he'd explain today. I was hoping he'd be on sooner to explain it this time, but appears not.

[skip spence]

Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..

ToDay he focusses on why Glirdan was targeted. Why is this so important to us now, Inzil?

[skip spence]

I
If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents. :confused:
Yeah but didn't pretty much everyone vote Shasta anyway? And I wouldn't discount those first couple of votes either. Especially since the circumstances around Lottie's vote really was what set the whole thing in motion.

[A Little Green]

Phew, back here at last. Again, my apologies for yesterDay - toDay I should be here more or less until DL.

I think this is the likely scenario:

ShastaSeer dreams of an innocent Nerwen, and leaves his various hints.

GlirdyRanger catches the hints and protects Nerwen.

Wolfies also catch the hints and try to kill Nerwen. Fail.

Next Day, Glirdy basically outlines that same scenario.

Wolfies see that as a Ranger hint. They could go for Nerwen who is basically a proven innocent and can't be protected a second Night in a row, or they could go after a likely Ranger and not have to worry about him anymore. Choice B is clearly what they went for.Wilwa's scenario nicely sums up what I was thinking about. There is something off in the exchange between Nog and Inzil. I'll check that more thoroughly if I have time - I want to compose a list of some kind and read Skip.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro and two Skips

[Eönwë]

What!? It seems we must have some psychic wolves... *would glare at Shasta but he's sadly not here any more*

The Hunter definitely should not reveal any time soon.
I don't think the Hunter should reveal at all unless in danger of being lynched, as then we'd have a known innocent that the wolves hopefully won't attack out of fear (if this does happen, then hopefully it will be later on, when the hunter's more likely to choose correctly).

Anyway, I'm going to reread yesterDay before I do anything else.

[Ozban]

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents. :confused:

What a "funny" thought. :(

I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.


Then, after some seemingly meaningless chatter Legate is first to raise concerns about that Shasta-Lottie exchange.


He didn't vote for Shasta actually (D1), but he started discussion that led to it, and then he voted Lottie, but not sooner than first Shasta-vote was cast (by Lottie actually)

I just don't trust him, I will probably vote for him if something big doesn't happen.

Later...

Edit: X'ed from 235 onwards.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I am back and around... to my surprise and partially delight, it seems you people haven't been overactive toDay, although I must say, even though it really delights me that I don't have million pages to catch up, still perhaps I would have preferred people posting more than less...

But not saying anything until I read what is that that's been discussed...

[A Little Green]

Looking at who we have here...

TRUST:
Nerwen - Well it seems pretty likely that she was Glirdan's Night 2 protection, possibly also Shasta's dream - but be the latter as it may it's unlikely she's a wolf. Will leave her alone for the time being.

MORE INNOCENT THAN NOT:
Legate - Looks like his innocent self to me.
Lottie - I'm still inclined to find her more innocent than not, though I'm not that sure anymore.
Ozban - Seems nicely independent-minded - a very rare trait in a new wolf, but then again I wouldn't put it past him. No arguments against him, nor a bad feeling, though.

(A freakish in-between category for those between "leaning innocent" and "headache"):
wilwa - Feels innocentish, though I couldn't say what I base that on. Might deserve a closer look as well actually, just because I realised I never really even considered the possibility that she's a wolf..

HEADACHE:
Boro - Scares me. First hunch: innocent. Second hunch: wolf. I'd prefer a closer look at him, we'll see if I have time.
Eönwë - Quite frankly I have no idea. I'm expecting him to turn up and explain a bit about his yesterDay's vote...
Inzil - Hmm. He is as impossible to read as always. Was the first to point out Glirdan's obvious hinting to having protected Nerwen. That could go both ways.
Nogrod - Agh. Confuses me to no end. Has been less aggressive than usual I think, and his exchange with Zil toDay was weird (don't know which of the two was the one who was off, though).

MORE EVIL THAN NOT:
skip - The one I'm currently feeling worst about, I'll make a separate post about him in a minute.

I don't like the size of my headache-category, and especially the number of people I have no idea about. Gah.


EDIT: x-ed with Eonwe, Ozzy and Leg

[wilwarin538]

Wilwa seems a bit feistier and aggressive than her normal charming, relaxing butterfly persona. This could be from a combination of past experiences as a queen wolf with Zeus and now Glirdan's death. :p

Haha, definetely both. I think after working so closely with my dear Zeusykins, I've taken on a bit of his attitude. ;) And for once I felt good about my BFF, and I think he felt good about me, so I'm super annoyed that he's gone, and him being the Ranger just makes it that much worse. To be left with only 1 of the 3 Gifteds, the Hunter certainly is not the most useful of them (no offense).

Anyway, I have a notebook in front of me and will be going back to the beginning to take some notes and try to get a better idea of everything. As long as my mild ADD doesn't kick in, I should get this done fairly efficiently and have something useful to say.

x'ed with Legate and Greenie, and yes it did take me over 10 minutes to type this, I'm telling you, ADD....

[Nogrod]

It was much larger job I thought but I've finally read through yesterDay taking notes of people's attitudes towards the Shasta - Pitchie dream scenario.

But reading it is just crazy as we can have wolves willing to press for Pitchie's lynch (none of the wolves is lynched and with a nice wagon the have a place to hide) and wolves willing to caustion us from Pitchie-lynch (as not to look too over-eager or to look good toDay). Also innocents could be either willing to drive for Pitchie lynch just to be sure, or caution against it as it is unbelievable (making Shasta a reckless seer) and thus possibly a lynch wasted.


Here are my notes then, in the order of their votes coming in - and a short comment of mine in italics.

Legate seems to downplay Pitch-issue basically with not mentioning it in the beginning and then later going for “could be this, could be that”, belives in the end Nerwen is the innocent dream. Is not "100% sure" Pitchie is the wolf (sic!). Says he will vote for either Glirdy or Lottie – of Pitch he says only he feels quite good! Votes Lottie (1)

It really looks strange. He looks a lot like a cobbler to me - not sure if he's a wolf though (it might depend a lot on what Lottie is as I don't think they are on the same side, unless innocents both - which I strongly suspect being the case).

Nerwen seems to understand why Shasta could have been dreaming of Pitch (nervous, first time seer). Has hard times between the two interpretations (well the other includes herself as an innocent so I hats off if she is innocent!). Says it is a dilemma: suspicious Lottie or not suspicious but possibly dreamt of Pitch. Votes Pitch (1)

It would be really unfortunate if Shasta has not dreamt of Nerwen and we tke her innocence for granted because of his posts... but she looks pretty innocent and reasonable so I'd say she's not on the top of my suspicions.

Greenie comes in in haste, says skip is the most suspicious and “wouldn’t mind” Pitchie gone either. Votes Skip (1)

Had she not been in a hurry I'd say this would be really suspicious, but looking at it as a vote made in a hurry I'd think it not that suspicious.

Ozban wavers between interpretations (the possibility vs. Pitchie looking good & Nerwen more likely dream). Votes Pitche (2) as it would be too stupid to let him get away.

Otherwise quite good, but I do wonder how come he earlier stressed the fact that a) Nerwen was the more likely dream to him, and b) Pitchie looked so good - and still ended up with voting Pitchie. Some risen eyebrows here.

wilwa says an innocent Nerwen looks more likely. After a pause comes and asks is someone really thinking we should gamble on Pitchie: the possibility of a dreamt wolf is enough to lynch him. Cut the crap and check Pitch. Votes Pitch (3)

Interesting change of mood there from early Day to late one - but is logical and considerate on everything else... Hard to say, but my guts say more innocent than not.

Inzil only comments on the possibilities. Is careful of possibilities, thinks Pitchwolf is a “strong possibility”. Wonders about Greenie’s vote: if Pitch turns out a wolf we should look at Greenie. There’s only one way of being sure with Pitch… Votes Pitchie (4)

Well he's careful indeed - and if you were looking for a careful wolf Zil might be our guy?

Skip seems to be on the map, but puts it in the tone of “maybe it was Pitchie?” Wants to see alternatives. Votes Legate (1)

Interesting choice... It really does stand out - would a wolf want to do that only not to be seen as someone with innocent blood in his hands? If Lottie is a wolf it might make sense, but I'm not that confident if voting Legate would make sense for a wolf even then...

Pitchie understandably votes for Lottie (2)

Dead and innocent.

Boro was the first to spell out the Shasta – Pitchie –case. Next (after opposite ideas had been entertained he withdraws from it somewhat). Later says he’s leaning towards Pitch. Ponders about the reasonableness of yet another bandwagon of 7… Rejects the idea of competition and votes Pitchie (5)

Came up with the scenario quite boldly but then clearly tried to withdraw himself from it's conclusions (I was not making a Pitchie lynch call). Also goes to and fro with the choices in the end but decides finally to go for Pitchie. Hard to say. Maybe a last minute "joining the crowd" move from a wolf. Or a "hands up" (well, let's check it then) from an innocent? In general he looks quite good but...

Lottie says if Pitch is the dreamt one, a wolf a packmate would press for Nerwen-dream interpretation. Considers Pitchie as a lynchee on the same level with various others. Stresses the only reason not to trust Pitchie is a possible dream. Would like to see some other options than Pitchie. Suspects Skip but votes Pitchie (6)

Among other things she did yesterDay this looks quite bad to me. Like she tried to look calm and gathered, not driving for the Pitch-lynch. Even goes on to suspect Skip in her last post - and then votes Pitchie to blend in to the crowd?

Nog goes to and fro with Pitch-scenario: it is tempting but it goes against what Shasta would be as the seer... Doesn't like the idea of yet another 7-vote wagon and finally thinks Lottie a better chance. Votes Lottie (3)

Not knowing of the last two votes if I may add.

Steve comes in late and discusses things from D1… Evades the Pitch-subject. Votes Lottie (4)

As hasty, odd and maddening as he was on D1. I'd really like to hear his promised explanation to his vote - and why does he use his precious few minutes discussing things from D1 in the end of D2 - especially as they seem to have little bearing with what we have at stake there, in the end of D2?


Jesus! But I did it!

I'm in for a break now, but will be back later.

[Nerwen]

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents. :confused:
It's happened before.

Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..
This is true, and I find him rather creepy. However–

ToDay he focusses on why Glirdan was targeted. Why is this so important to us now, Inzil?
I don't like this, skip– it looks as if you're just latching on to this:
So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.
In fact, earlier in the Day, when Zil was talking about it, it was a pretty obvious question. So what you just did looks... also rather creepy.

I do like your analysis of Legate, though. I'm torn.

What!? It seems we must have some psychic wolves... *would glare at Shasta but he's sadly not here any more*
You had better not be a wolf, Steve. "It seems we must have some psychic wolves" *pats self on back*" :rolleyes:

EDIT:X'd since Steve.

[skip spence]

In fact, earlier in the Day, when Zil was talking about it, it was a pretty obvious question. So what you just did looks... also rather creepy.

Okay, quickly responding to this: I fail to see why this was such an obvious question. Maybe it's my lack of ww experience, but why is it such an interesting question how the wolves picked Glirdy as the ranger. I don't think it was a coincidence (since they could've taken the safe choice and killed off the protected person last night) but still, even if we can identify his slip, does that make it easier to find the culprits? And if so, how is that?

Will be off for a short bit but should be back soonish.

Curious to her from Greenie why she suspects me too...

[Nerwen]

Okay, quickly responding to this: I fail to see why this was such an obvious question. Maybe it's my lack of ww experience, but why is it such an interesting question how the wolves picked Glirdy as the ranger. I don't think it was a coincidence (since they could've taken the safe choice and killed off the protected person last night) but still, even if we can identify his slip, does that make it easier to find the culprits?
It's usual to speculate a bit on why someone was killed, especially in a case where it's unexpected. Also, Nogrod raised the point first. Also, it's an argument for my being a known innocent. So I still don't see what you're worrying about.

None of this, of course, means that Zil couldn't be a wolf helpfully explaining the reasons for the kill. They do that sometimes.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

First one thing. As for Glirdy's death, if you take the facts - only the fact we have are enough! - it is only logical: I don't see why people did not see it earlier, I mean, you had all Day and nobody mentioned what seems obvious to me: if Nerwen is innocent, which now after PW turned not to be guilty seems clear, then the WWs know it. Okay? And they know the Ranger protected her. Okay? So they just look who said what about Nerwen the Day before. And I remember how the beginning of the Day was, because I was there: Boro came, and started talking about the options, and saying Pw is the most likely. And then Glirdy came and was pressing really strongly the Nerwen-case. Now, what would one think...

Otherwise, comments about yesterDay and the little bit of toDay, too:

I am once again starting to doubt Boro. Largely because of his speculation about the kill the Day before. Even though later he said he didn't really advocate it, he at least mentioned Pitch being dreamed of as the most probable scenario. And if nothing else, that would lead Glirdy-Ranger to state the opposite, since Glirdy would know whom he was protecting: if I am right about my conclusions, innocent Nerwen (whom I now find most likely to be his protectee and thus innocent).

And the analysis Boro made yesterDay in #156 seemed just very much interpretative with the addendum that "perhaps wilwa is the Cobbler", which could be even Borowolf himself checking here whether it wasn't supposed to be a Cobbler signal (the phrasing):
One thing away from the band-wagon yesterday, to say to is about Wilwa's self-vote. It may be the frustration of having a meaningless vote, but it looks pretty weird and flippant. More like a cobbler signal to the wolves though than a wolf casting a meaningless vote. She said she never had the chance to vote for herself, seems to have wanted to and now was as good of a chance as any, but also find yourself a good opportunity to say "Here's your cobbler wolvsies," Wilwa?

Note please he starts to speak in third person and then he switches into talking to her directly, as if "Yes, Wilwa? Is it so? Are you a cobbler?") Later, he wrote that he was "waiting for response"... so was he, indeed?

Now wilwa's reply to Boro didn't seem very cobblerish, but her vote was a bit weird (or the explanation of it, in the light of the current events). She really was basically like "let's start the bandwaggon!" I would like to hear more from her, like, what was going through your mind at that moment, wilwa? Can you somehow elaborate or re-explain it?

Boro's vote toDay and sometimes his sort of "addendum" to the existing suspicions of other players seem eyebrow-raising, but especially with the vote I am not sure if it is a Wolf-y thing. Unless he is following something by this random voting, if it's his style now or something.

I still don't quite trust Lottie based on yesterDay's later responses to me (post 161). It seems to me more like it's just covering the tracks.

Bah... I'm not going to continue on this as it looks like it takes hours and I think I've found enough for the work for now. I really would like to hear what Legate has to say of this record.

To me it looks like someone who knew very well Pitchie was innocent but who wished to lay low as not to be seen as one not too keen on raising the discussion or hammering it out. I know him to be such an intelligent guy that it totally baffles me he does not entertain the possibility Pitchie is a wolf earlier - and when he feels forced to take sides he nicely takes "the right side" against "all evidence" we had thus far (and not discussing the evidence but just taking sides).

Or is he the cobbler? That could explain a lot as well...

I don't know what do you want me to "respond", as you say, because I have nothing to respond. You didn't ask me anything. What you write is your opinion, and if you find what I said suspicious, then it's your problem, not mine. I merely stated, and I believe you can see clearly what I was thinking from my posts: that I think pitch is innocent and thought so based on his behavior (from earlier and still at that time) and that the only reason why I could doubt him is the possibility that he was dreamt of. Imagine the situation: you find somebody innocent, and then you hear he's possibly the Seer's dream. What do you do? I did the thing I did: I said I am not dismissing the chance, as based on the evidence of Shasta's posts it was equally possible for me that it was Nerwen or him, but my personal opinion was that definitely I am not voting him, and I thought the dream was Nerwen - largely because I found it more likely that she is innocent than that Pw is wolf! Is that clear now?

But looking at the wagon itself which practically sealed Shasta's fate, it was made by:

Glirdyranger (3rd vote)
Skip (4th vote)
Pitchinnocent (5th vote)
A note, I just love it how I say something in the middle of Day 2 and somebody pulls it as a huge discovery sometime in the middle of Day 3... this is not the first time it happened. I am just saying this out of curiosity, as I have never experienced anything like this before, but in this game it happens all the time, I say something and somebody else pulls it out of the sleeve as an incredible discovery a long time after...

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwens and skip

[skip spence]

It's usual to speculate a bit on why someone was killed, especially in a case where it's unexpected. Also, Nogrod raised the point first. Also, it's an argument for my being a known innocent. So I still don't see what you're worrying about.
Okay to spell it out, I felt that this might be an Inzil-wolf trying to make himself look useful but without actually taking the discussion forwards in any productive way. That you are a likely Seer dream should be obvious to all innocents and I don't see the point talking too much about it. In fact, I didn't even see the need to bring it up in the first place, not even when Pitch was still alive, even less so now.

[Eönwë]

Steve comes in late and discusses things from D1… Evades the Pitch-subject. Votes Lottie (4)
Really? (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640621&postcount=200) And actually, on my other post (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640604&postcount=183), there was actually only actually one thing that was not completely relevant to the end of Day 2.


As for why I voted Lottie, well, other than Shasta's accusations (which didn't seem Seer-hintish to me anyway), I didn't see any reason to suspect Pitch, and thought that it was far more likely that Shasta had dreamed Nerwen. And more importantly, I thought that if we killed Pitch and found out he was innocent (as was the case), the wolves would go after Nerwen, who was basically a proven innocent, and I was worried because I thought that she was the Ranger.

For one thing, I thought that maybe that was why Shasta tried to draw so little attention to his calling Nerwen innocent (by covering it with all the Pitchwife stuff). It's one thing to try not to make it too obvious that someone is an innocent, but if they're a gifted then you need even more care, and that's what I thought was going on. And her first post (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=640393&postcount=15) seemed like it could be a Ranger hint too. And even though I admit that that maybe wasn't solid proof of her being a Ranger, I didn't want to risk. It turned out that the Ranger ended up dead anyway, so I suppose I failed.

And also, Lottie seemed (and still does seem) more than a little suspicious.


edit: x-ed since the Nog post I quoted and fixed one sentence.