Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Loslote]

Well, that's interesting. Better than it could have been, though. Maybe the wolves were convinced by Shasta's Nog-seer sort of theory (it rested, after all, on Nog being last Night's kill choice, and clearly he wasn't), which might indicate that Eomer is more likely to be TBW. Only if Agan is evil, though, really.

Although, you'd think TB might have tried to hunt Eomer last Night...in which case, Eomer might be a wolf.

[Inziladun]

Well, that's interesting. Better than it could have been, though. Maybe the wolves were convinced by Shasta's Nog-seer sort of theory (it rested, after all, on Nog being last Night's kill choice, and clearly he wasn't), which might indicate that Eomer is more likely to be TBW. Only if Agan is evil, though, really.

Eomer I might agree on, but why does Eomer being the BW depend on Agan's alignment?
I don't think Shasta's a likely wolf at this point, but I'm wondering if he might not be Ferny.

Although, you'd think TB might have tried to hunt Eomer last Night...in which case, Eomer might be a wolf.

It's a pretty big "if", trying to guess who Tom was looking for, really. Eomer looks shady enough on his own.

[Loslote]

Eomer I might agree on, but why does Eomer being the BW depend on Agan's alignment?

Because the wolves might have thought he looked like the Seer. They killed someone last Night who looked like the Seer - Nog. Two people were talked about as possible TBW candidates yesterDay - Nog and Eomer - because the wolves might have thought they looked like Seers. Since they went after Nog, who was, of the two, less likely to look like a Seer, that suggests that they knew Eomer wasn't the Seer. They could only know that if he was a) TBW or b) a wolf. If Eomer is TBW, it suggests that Agan is evil, because in order to look like the Seer, his vote for Agan would have had to be right. If Eomer is a wolf, it says little about Agan's role, but suggests that she is not particularly likely to be Eomer's packmate.

[Nerwen]

Eomer I might agree on, but why does Eomer being the BW depend on Agan's alignment?
I don't think Shasta's a likely wolf at this point, but I'm wondering if he might not be Ferny.
Only if he's really cleaned up his act since last time.:p

Originally Posted by Loslote
Although, you'd think TB might have tried to hunt Eomer last Night...in which case, Eomer might be a wolf.
It's a pretty big "if", trying to guess who Tom was looking for, really. Eomer looks shady enough on his own.
I have to agree: if TB followed the arguments put forward yesterDay, it's probably about 50-50 whether he picked Nog or Eomer.

Because the wolves might have thought he looked like the Seer. They killed someone last Night who looked like the Seer - Nog. Two people were talked about as possible TBW candidates yesterDay - Nog and Eomer - because the wolves might have thought they looked like Seers. Since they went after Nog, who was, of the two, less likely to look like a Seer, that suggests that they knew Eomer wasn't the Seer. They could only know that if he was a) TBW or b) a wolf. If Eomer is TBW, it suggests that Agan is evil, because in order to look like the Seer, his vote for Agan would have had to be right. If Eomer is a wolf, it says little about Agan's role, but suggests that she is not particularly likely to be Eomer's packmate.
In fact, we're now in the same position we were only hypothetically in yesterDay, as regards the wolves picking Nogrod. So I guess all the "what-if" arguments now actually apply. Funny.

[The Elf-warrior]

++Shasta

I think he tried to frame Nogrod as the BW. Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

This statement sticks in my craw, How are we supposed to come up with suggestions for Tom Bombadil if we shouldn't look for the Barrow-Wight? :rolleyes: You're amusing, Little Lottie.

But really, knowing that the wolves attacked the Wight Night 1 is actually a pretty big piece of information for us. I don't see why we shouldn't pursue it. That is not what Lottie had been advocating and I think you know it. One way or another, you're goin' down boy.

One last thing, I'm a he. This is the Elf-warrior, signing off. Death to lycanthropes!!

[Loslote]

I think he tried to frame Nogrod as the BW. Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

The only thing is, why would they? After all, TBW is hardly on their side. Xe wants the wolves dead, too. What could a Shastawolf have gained from framing Nog as TBW - especially considering he would have killed him the very next Night? I'm not overly pleased with Elfie right now. He has been very quiet, and what he does say seems very much off.

[Nerwen]

The Volo-waggon.

Nine minutes before DL, our ill-fated ranger had no votes whatever. (Then-vote count: Eomer, Agan, EW, wilwa and Form at one each.)

At 9:52 GMT, Wilwa votes Volo:
I definitely want to go for a quieter person, and he seems like one of those loud quiet people, ya know the ones that say a lot without actually saying much, and what he does say doesn't make a lot of sense.

9:54. Aganzir follows suit (Volo 2):
As opposed to Nog & sally, there seems to be a chance to lynch him. I feel semi-bad doing this because he hasn't played in a long time, but if he's innocent, he can only blame himself for being so weird.

9:55. Pitchwife votes Eomer (Eomer 2):
He hasn't come back and delivered the more reasoned vote he promised us, and it looks like he's not going to, and he could well be a quiet wolf or Wight, and I'd rather be able to stop wondering what the heck he's up to.

(Next three posts have the same time stamp, but I give them in order.)
9:57. Inziladun votes Volo (Volo 3). No explanation given with this vote; earlier he had mentioned Volo "pinged his radar".

9:57. Volo reveals as the Ranger.

9:57. Shasta votes Volo (Volo 4).
Got to be...

++Volo, then.
Note: Had previously said little about Volo, other than that he "could vote for him". Vote-post is not marked as having crossed with Volo's reveal. An oversight? [EDIT: Yes, he did cross. Sorry.]

9:58. Nogrod (known innocent) votes Volo (Volo 5):
Eomer makes more sense than Volo...

++ Volo
Uh... so why did he vote Volo, then?:confused: Vote crossed with reveal and previous two votes.

In the remaining two minutes, all five Volo-voters expressed dismay, Shasta (9:58) and Agan (10:10) suggesting the remaining players (Volo, Greenie, Eomer and Sally) all vote for Eomer. However, only Volo himself did so.

So quite a peculiar last-minute bandwaggon there. I don't say it was completely out of the blue– Volo had been talked about quite a bit on Days One and Two– but other than the initial vote (Wilwa's) all the votes on Volo look quite nastily opportunistic.

I say "all" advisedly, however– the fact that one vote came from a known innocent is a useful reality check. Nonetheless, I think it likely that one or more villains had been waiting around until the last minute– it would make sense in a situation when no player had had more than one vote, so they couldn't even guess how the lynch would go. The wolves would of course have the most reason for doing this, especially if one of their own was among the earlier candidates.

EDIT:X'd with EW and Lottie.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's been a long night and is now four in the morning. All I know at the moment is that I'm not even going to bother responding to EW because if he's going to vote this early in the day for 'reasons' (such as they were) like that, he's no better than Morsul and thus not worth my time.

Nerwen, darling, you say my vote post wasn't marked as crossing with Volo's reveal, but it is. Please look again.

Shasta, signing off (with the beginnings of a royal hangover, and no that's not a reference to Nogrod, ask Mira).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hi all. Apologies for lack of participation yesterday but a family commitment lasted longer than I had anticipated. Came back home too late.

Not at all surprised to see I nearly got lynched; what is it about me that rubs people up the wrong way? :p

Back soon with some insights.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

[U]So quite a peculiar last-minute bandwaggon there. I don't say it was completely out of the blue– Volo had been talked about quite a bit on Days One and Two– but other than the initial vote (Wilwa's) all the votes on Volo look quite nastily opportunistic.

I say "all" advisedly, however– the fact that one vote came from a known innocent is a useful reality check. Nonetheless, I think it likely that one or more villains had been waiting around until the last minute– it would make sense in a situation when no player had had more than one vote, so they couldn't even guess how the lynch would go. The wolves would of course have the most reason for doing this, especially if one of their own was among the earlier candidates.

Just to say that I agree with Nerwen's interpretation here; chances are indeed good that one or even two wolves stuck around this late.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

#134 - rants against Shasta about how he's obviously not the seer.

#168 - "Stop speculating about who the seer is. Thank you." It's possible the wolves thought he was bluffing on these two points, rather than any convictions he had about guilt and innocence.

#169 - continues arguing with Aganzir

#174 - lessens his suspicion of Pitchwife

#228 - suspects Volo (ok) but also mentions he'd like to vote Sally.


-------

Don't really see anything Seerish about Nogrod. Odd kill by the wolves, if you ask me.

[Pitchwife]

Well, I suppose it would have been expecting too much to hope that the wolves would kill Ferny, so I have to agree that Barley's death was the second best thing that could have happened.
Losing our Ranger sucks, however... And in this light, I'll have to reconsider about some of the people I've thought innocent up to now (especially wilwa and Agan).

Speaking of Volo and wilwa:

Ok, I see where this is leading. Don't vote for me. I'm the Ranger. wilwa is not the BW.
Snap.

Well, I'm inclined to believe him, since his last statement is in fact correct.
We now know he was what he said, but as the Ranger, he couldn't have known what you were, could he? Therefore I neither understand his statement nor your reply.

TEW's vote was very hasty indeed... and what was that bit about 'signing off' about? Does that mean he's not coming back toDay? In this case, such an early vote would be understandable.
Anyway, I don't think his reason quite as bad as Lottie and Shasta make it look - I mean, if Shastawolf thought Nog could be the real Seer instead of BW masquerading as one, trying to frame him would make sense, as would the Night-kill after that didn't work. Problem with that is, I don't know that I in his place would be so daring as to go after a supposed Seer in broad Daylight and risk provoking a reveal, instead of killing them quietly; and it would also point quite strongly to both Shasta himself and Agan... but maybe they considered getting rid of the Seer worth the risk.

(x-ed with two Eomers)

(EDIT: make that three.)

[Nerwen]

Nerwen, darling, you say my vote post wasn't marked as crossing with Volo's reveal, but it is. Please look again.
My apologies, my treasure. I was reading it with the "reply" window already opened, and I think in that mode those "reason for editing" comments don't appear.

[wilwarin538]

We now know he was what he said, but as the Ranger, he couldn't have known what you were, could he? Therefore I neither understand his statement nor your reply.


Because he was protecting me that Night, if he was protecting me there's no way I can be the BW because the wolves got close enough to their kill to see who it was, if the Ranger was involved the narration would have said so.


I was really hoping to have more to comment on this morning. I need to go to Church now, and I will be there for quite a while. I should be back on for the last few hours and hopefully have a lot to say.

[Nerwen]

Just to say that I agree with Nerwen's interpretation here; chances are indeed good that one or even two wolves stuck around this late.

It doesn't have to be so from a statistical point of view: there's five unknowns among the late voters, versus eight among those who voted earlier or not at all. But a last-minute flurry like that tends to mean something. Unfortunately, it's not that easy to work out who in that group would be the villains (technically, at least, it could be all of them). So, the main questions for me are: were the wolves trying to save someone, and if so, who?

[Nerwen]

I'm going to have to vote in the next ten minutes. Just letting you all know.

[Nerwen]

Quiet, aren't you all?

Well–

++Agan again.

[Inziladun]

Not much time right now, but I should be back in a couple of hours.


The only thing is, why would they? After all, TBW is hardly on their side. Xe wants the wolves dead, too. What could a Shastawolf have gained from framing Nog as TBW - especially considering he would have killed him the very next Night?

Unless the pack was tired of trying to get Nog lynched, or maybe, like I said, Shasta is Ferny. I need to think about it though, whether Nog's innocence makes Shasta look better, worse, or neutral.

Speaking of Volo and wilwa:

We now know he was what he said, but as the Ranger, he couldn't have known what you were, could he? Therefore I neither understand his statement nor your reply.

I saw it the way Wilwa explained: Volo took the time to say Wilwa wasn't the BW because he had protected her Night 2 and knew she wasn't targeted by the wolves.

TEW's vote was very hasty indeed... and what was that bit about 'signing off' about? Does that mean he's not coming back toDay? In this case, such an early vote would be understandable.
Anyway, I don't think his reason quite as bad as Lottie and Shasta make it look - I mean, if Shastawolf thought Nog could be the real Seer instead of BW masquerading as one, trying to frame him would make sense, as would the Night-kill after that didn't work. Problem with that is, I don't know that I in his place would be so daring as to go after a supposed Seer in broad Daylight and risk provoking a reveal, instead of killing them quietly; and it would also point quite strongly to both Shasta himself and Agan... but maybe they considered getting rid of the Seer worth the risk.

With Agan though, Nog was repeatedly saying she was a Cobbler. If she's a wolf, what else did he say that drew the pack's attention?

[wilwarin538]

Anyway, I don't think his reason quite as bad as Lottie and Shasta make it look - I mean, if Shastawolf thought Nog could be the real Seer instead of BW masquerading as one, trying to frame him would make sense, as would the Night-kill after that didn't work. Problem with that is, I don't know that I in his place would be so daring as to go after a supposed Seer in broad Daylight and risk provoking a reveal, instead of killing them quietly; and it would also point quite strongly to both Shasta himself and Agan... but maybe they considered getting rid of the Seer worth the risk.

Yeah, the whole thing is a bit odd. I have a hard time believing that a Shastawolf would go through all that just to frame someone, only to then kill them. Like you said, if he legitimately thought Nog was the Seer he could just stay quiet about it until the following Night and kill him then, instead of drawing attention to it and risking Nog coming forward. The scenario of Shastawolf thinking Nog was the Seer just does not seem likely to me, and to me seems to make Shasta look a bit better (assuming that the wolves thought Nog to be the Seer). Continuing with that assumption (goodness, I sound like Shasta now) then that would make Agan look good too, since he clearly pegged her as a Cobbler (so an Aganwolf would never think him the seer for that reason). Of course there could very well have been a completely different reason that the wolves went for Nog, so I'm not saying that I completely trust either of them..

I also don't like the way EW popped in like that (he did that yesterDay too, didn't he?). He may just be busy, but the tone of it doesn't sound like he feels bad about not coming back, he just seems like "oh, well whatever, I'll just vote and leave and they won't even notice me".

There are way too many quiet people with indifferent attitudes in this game. :rolleyes:

[Aganzir]

Well, at least the wolves are good at picking out the special roles. :p

Since they went after Nog, who was, of the two, less likely to look like a Seer, that suggests that they knew Eomer wasn't the Seer. They could only know that if he was a) TBW or b) a wolf.
I'm not sure I get your reasoning. Shouldn't it be enough that they know I'm not a wolf? Nog attacked me for being "the cobbler, of course" but Eomer only said I was "guilty as sin". As a wolf, I'd be more concerned about a person who was sure someone was the cobbler than about someone who just thought she was guilty.

What could a Shastawolf have gained from framing Nog as TBW - especially considering he would have killed him the very next Night?
Especially considering that everyone now seems to think we should give Tom a try on a suspected Barrow-Wight before lynching them. Getting Tom to check Nog would've wasted a chance to get rid of the real one which I find it hard to believe the wolves want. Unless they want to keep her around at least as long as the three of them are still alive...

Speaking of the Barrow-Wight, I won't be very surprised if she's on my suspect list. Just sayin'. (Of course I might be wrong though.)

As for EW, I definitely don't like his quietness either but I must say his behaviour doesn't look very suspicious/atypical of him to me per se.

Nerwen, just so you know I xed with wilwa's vote. I voted for Volo after Shasta and Zil had said they considered it.

but other than the initial vote (Wilwa's) all the votes on Volo look quite nastily opportunistic.
How so? Yes, I voted for him because he seemed more likely to be lynched than my other suspects, if that's what you call opportunism. How come the Volowagon was opportunistic but the Glirdywagon wasn't? Just because we lynched the ranger instead of the cobbler? I really don't like the way Nerwen seems to be twisting it, and the same goes for Eomer.

he's no better than Morsul and thus not worth my time.
I am deeply amused by this comparison. :D

Just to say that I agree with Nerwen's interpretation here; chances are indeed good that one or even two wolves stuck around this late.
It's pretty interesting that Eomer goes on to suspect the Volo voters when he himself was the runner-up (and chances were good he would've been lynched instead, even without Volo's reveal). I'm not sure what to make of it, though.

Don't really see anything Seerish about Nogrod. Odd kill by the wolves, if you ask me.
Except he seemed to be certain I was the cobbler? If the wolves don't know who their cobbler is, they may well have thought it was me and that he was the seer.

and what was that bit about 'signing off' about? Does that mean he's not coming back toDay?
Given how much he's posted before, I believe it means he's gone for the day... :rolleyes:

Problem with that is, I don't know that I in his place would be so daring as to go after a supposed Seer in broad Daylight and risk provoking a reveal, instead of killing them quietly
I think that would be foolhardy for a wolf: seer Nog probably wouldn't have waited till the very last minute to reveal so it's unlikely he would have been lynched (even more so given that only a few people suspected him), and since the ranger was still alive it would've brought the wolves gambling they could easily have avoided.

Next I'm going to have a look at Inzil, but before that, tea-time!

[Loslote]

TEW's vote was very hasty indeed... and what was that bit about 'signing off' about? Does that mean he's not coming back toDay? In this case, such an early vote would be understandable.

Thing is, it's not the early vote - it's that early votes and about one short, not-particularly helpful post a Day is all he's really done.

I'm still not feeling particularly good about Pitchie, and I think he and Elfie could well be packmates - but I don't think I'll vote for Pitchie toDay. It's possible my suspicion is primarily because I disagree with almost every word he says. But he is posting and contributing, so I'd be much more likely to vote for Elfie again.

Another one I'd consider is Eomer, who still seems off.

I have to vote early again - I have to run booths and pass out candy to hyper kids after church. :p I don't know when I'll be back, but it'll hopefully be around DL. In any case, I'll vote soon, just to be sure.

[Pitchwife]

Because he was protecting me that Night, if he was protecting me there's no way I can be the BW because the wolves got close enough to their kill to see who it was, if the Ranger was involved the narration would have said so.
Hm, my thought was that since the wolves couldn't kill Barry anyway, it would have made no difference whether xe was protected or not, so even if he protected you (and there's no reason to doubt his last words on that) you could still have been that Night's target.
But yeah, I suppose the narration would have mentioned it if the Ranger had been somehow involved in that Night's happenings. Instead it explicitely said that the Ranger was nowhere around (which I had forgotten when I asked you that question) - so we can actually derive a small boon from Volo's death and remove you from the list of possible BW-candidates.

About the Shastawolf-Nogseer theory, I'm aware that it would have been a rather risky manœuver and not awfully likely. Still I understand how it could have seemed plausible to TEW if for some reason he didn't have time to think it through thoroughly. And from the two games I've played with TEW, it's usual for him to be this quiet until well into the game both as an innocent and as a wolf (not that I approve of this style, and I wouldn't mind getting rid of a submarine if we've got no better options).

(x-ed with Lottie)

[Aganzir]

First off, let me say that I too am always amused when Inzil plays WW at work. :p

Inzil starts off on day 1 by saying that a suspected cobbler should be lynched in absence of a lupine target. I like it, but it doesn't tell me anything about his role because I pursue my tirade against cobblers even if I'm one, or a wolf, myself. He also thinks that a BW lynch is okay if we don't have other strong suspects because it might be difficult to leave her to Tom entirely, but she shouldn't be our priority. I'm inclined to agree, mostly because we can't know who Tom has already checked.

He questions Volo for saying the BW will have educated hunches about the roles, says he finds him shifty, and states he doesn't like the bandwagon against me. He considered voting Volo (who hadn't played in a long time, though) or Eomer. In the end he voted for Glirdan (who had a nervy edge to his posts).

On day 2, he said Nog as a wolfkill was a possibility, but he didn't see why his suspicion of me stood out from the others - also Eomer's suspicion seemed pretty explicit, while Nog had said I was the cobbler.

He analyses the votes, saying he would've expected Eomer of the Wargs at least to qualify his with a gut feeling; sally posted little so it's hard to say if her reasons were opportunistic (for the sake of consistency I should probably ask what makes a vote opportunistic, but as I've said of sally's vote before, it looked like she simply didn't care who got lynched); points out that to Form, entertaining was more valuable than useful; wilwa's reasons for her vote were better than Kath's (who voted for her for a lack of reasoning).

Then he argues with Shasta on whether Aganwolf would've been more likely to target Nog or Eomer, saying that a wolf is usually more worried of someone who votes for her for little or no reason than of someone who has an actual case against her. Shasta says Inzil was defending Nog but I don't think so, in my opinion he had a fair point. Still, I don't think the argument makes either of them look very bad, it looks more like they had differences in views and the argument just escalated.

He keeps questioning Volo for his weird suspicion of me and points out that on day 1 he voted for someone Nog was suspicious of even though he (according to himself) thought Nog could be a wolf. He considers voting for Eomer or Volo again, but says EW's vote for Eomer doesn't look too good, either. Shasta is either evil, insane or both, and he could possibly vote for Form too. In the end he gave Volo his third vote (just before his reveal). In her vote analysis, Nerwen says Inzil had only said Volo pinged his radar, but he had in fact been quite consistent with his suspicion since day 1.

Today he wonders if Shasta might be Ferny. That's possible I guess. It just seemed so useless to suggest we try to figure out whom the wolves targeted. Also, Eomer looks shady although we can't know if Tom targeted him or not. I agree, especially after his last posts.

I wonder if I should be concerned about Inzil because he is reasonable and makes sense - almost too much so. :p Anyway I don't find him suspicious at all at the moment.

[Aganzir]

Hm, my thought was that since the wolves couldn't kill Barry anyway, it would have made no difference whether xe was protected or not
Yes it would. If the ranger had stopped them, they would probably have gone after the BW again the next night because they didn't know they couldn't kill her (that would've been super :D). And if we had just been told, "No kill, the wolves targeted the BW" even though the ranger had protected her, the wolves would've learned her identity. So at least I'm willing to believe wilwa isn't the BW. ;)

And from the two games I've played with TEW, it's usual for him to be this quiet until well into the game both as an innocent and as a wolf (not that I approve of this style, and I wouldn't mind getting rid of a submarine if we've got no better options).
I've played with him a couple of times and he's always quiet - in this game he's actually probably posted more than usually. That's why I thought he was innocent on day 1; the previous time I played with him, he was a wolf and posted like two one-liners.

With no kill tomorrow night, I think we can afford to lynch another quiet player today. My first choice at the moment is sally, if for nothing else, for the sheer annoyance that I have over 12 times more posts than she. :rolleyes:

[Pitchwife]

Zil's stated reasons for voting Volo look better at first sight than at the second, in my opinion. He questioned why Volo would have voted for Agan when he thought Nog a wolf, but Volo actually said this:
When going Day1 through in my head yesterday, I had a feeling that Nogrod was a Wolf.
(my bolding)
From these words, I think Volo clearly meant that Nog started feeling wolvish to him when he was reexamining Day 1 during the Night, i.e. after his vote for Agan; and I remember a Zilwolf used a similar technique - trying to construe another player as self-contradicting when they weren't - last game. As far as I can see, he hasn't made any other substantial point against Volo yesterDay before voting him with no further comment. Now this pings my radar!

[Loslote]

++Elfie

Because he's practically the definition of submarine - he doesn't post much, what he does is not very helpful, and his tone feels very showy (as in, he's doing everything for show and not because he really means it).

[A Little Green]

Phew. I'm here now at last, trying to catch up on yesterDay and toDay. Sorry for the epic computer fail yesterDay (though I guess it wasn't my own fault), I very much hope it won't repeat itself. ToDay I'll be more or less around until DL. Now off to read, comments to come.

[Aganzir]

Whoops, thanks Pitch. I was lazy and only skimmed the quotes because I thought I remembered what they said. :o

However Inzil was initially suspicious of Volo because of the way he went after me, ie. didn't say a word about me but voted for me because I thought Greenie, whom he suspected, was innocent (this happened mainly on day 1). So even though the quote you provided makes his yesterday attack on Volo look fishier than I originally thought, I don't think I can blame him for suspecting Volo.

edit: xed with Greenie who is strongly encouraged to come and visit me if her computer crashes. ;)

[Inziladun]

From these words, I think Volo clearly meant that Nog started feeling wolvish to him when he was reexamining Day 1 during the Night, i.e. after his vote for Agan; and I remember a Zilwolf used a similar technique - trying to construe another player as self-contradicting when they weren't - last game.

I thought of interpreting Volo's words the way you say, Pitch, but the "yesterday" made it look to me as if he was saying he'd suspected Nog during the Day.

YesterDay I was considering four people for my vote: Eomer, TEW, Form, and Volo.
I couldn't make up my mind whether Eomer or TEW looked worse, since I didn't think they both were likely to be wolves. I didn't like Form's votes, but he seemed as if he was genuinely busy, and I didn't have a lot of time to think. I decided on someone I'd already been wondering about, Volo.

Do you really think a vote for Sally would be constructive, Agan? Perhaps we can technically "afford to lynch another quiet player", but that doesn't mean we should.

[A Little Green]

I'd prefer to think that speaks for my innocence, given that I tend to be more invested in things as a wolf--and as the Days go on, and there's more to analyze--but that's just me.Might be true, but we can't know that.
My vote then is going to be essentially a throw-away, and I accept full association with the scorn that will be heaped upon me in Day 3 (if I survive that long). In the interests of economy, we'll stick with yesterday's vote then...

++ wilwarin

Who actually DOES feel slightly more "off" toDay to me, but not in any sort of way that I'm actually going to be able to pin down.Not scorn, but genuine curiosity.
I have this strange fear that Form, Kath and Eomer are wolves together, and they are all being quiet and distant and pretending to want to kill each other, just cause they know how awesome they are and that we won't want to kill them right away. Ouch. I believe you just made me paranoid, because that's actually a horrific scenario - and not all that impossible.
++Volo

As opposed to Nog & sally, there seems to be a chance to lynch him. I feel semi-bad doing this because he hasn't played in a long time, but if he's innocent, he can only blame himself for being so weird. This strikes me as slightly off - she seems to vote Volo for being weird, while she quite well knows he is more or less that every game whatever his role. It's rather like voting Lommy for being flip-floppy, Kath for missing Day 1, or Pitch for being agreeable. :p
Looking back now, both Greenie and Sally, two of the remaining three voters, had indicated they would not be around. That left Eomer, who wasn't likely to vote for himself at that point even if he'd been innocent. True. A revealed ranger is pretty much a goner anyway since they can't protect themselves.

[Aganzir]

Do you really think a vote for Sally would be constructive, Agan? Perhaps we can technically "afford to lynch another quiet player", but that doesn't mean we should.
More constructive than she has been thus far. And just in case you don't remember, I've suspected her since day 1. ;) (Although it's probably silly to phrase it this way because she hasn't posted since day 1.)

Almost half the players have 10 posts or less, and I'd much rather lynch a quiet one.

[Aganzir]

This strikes me as slightly off - she seems to vote Volo for being weird, while she quite well knows he is more or less that every game whatever his role. It's rather like voting Lommy for being flip-floppy, Kath for missing Day 1, or Pitch for being agreeable. :p
I'm used to Volo being eccentric but I'm not used to anyone voting for a player just because she doesn't suspect a player they suspect.

[A Little Green]

I'm used to Volo being eccentric but I'm not used to anyone voting for a player just because she doesn't suspect a player they suspect.Fair enough. Looking back, you did have a pretty sensible reason for suspecting Volo - the phrasing of your vote-post just made it look like you voted him for being weird.

[Aganzir]

Fair enough. Looking back, you did have a pretty sensible reason for suspecting Volo - the phrasing of your vote-post just made it look like you voted him for being weird.
To be honest, that would have served him right - after all, he voted for me for talking about the cobblers. ;) :D

[wilwarin538]

Almost half the players have 10 posts or less, and I'd much rather lynch a quiet one.

I agree, I mean there are only 3 hours left of the Day and there have been less than 40 posts (that's less than 2 posts an hour). That's lame, and if we get rid of the louder people then every day will get quieter.

So if we split the village up into 3 groups (now I'm not going off post count, I'm doing this in a fairly arbitrary way based on who stands out to me from all 3 Days, feel free to argue this) it sort of looks like this:


Loud
Agan
Inzil
Nerwen
Pitch
Shasta

Moderately Loud
Wilwa
Greenie
Lottie

Quiet
Eomer
Formendacil
Kath
Sally
The Elf-Warrior

So I kind of want to go for someone in that last group.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading. :)

[Inziladun]

I wanted to look at someone who hasn't been talked about much. Smilies removed.

Day 1

*waves*

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!) and that if deadline is 11pm GMT then I should, bar any unforeseen circumstances, be here at deadline.

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form. It's been way too long since I played with them.

Intro post.

Well thanks so much Eomer for that kind greeting. Let's all suspect him now for saying he was going to kill me and Form but then going after Agan! That's suspicious right?

Can someone throw a vote count at me? I have skimmed not read and that's going to stay the same really. So I'd like to know who's for the gallows and have a better look at them.

Ah and so I make no unfortunate errors ... Pitchwife - male or female?

Not much to say about that. The first part is apparently joking.

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2

Thanks Agan, missed that as I went through. I added wilwa's vote on. Our Canadians are voting against each other. Interesting?

We know now Glirdy was Harry Goatleaf, but that says nothing about Wilwa's alignment.

Well we apparently know the lynch choices for toDay then! So I'll go look at their posts and then vote.

Agan - suggests the person stunned reveals. Interesting idea, it would narrow down possibilities ... does it end up revealing Gifteds though and thus helping the wolves more? Basically saying just don't forget TBW in case it comes back to bite you later. Takes against Glirdan as well. Her and wilwa as buddies sounds unlikely given that they both suspect him. Suspects Nog for twisting her words or at least continuing to misunderstand them. Says 'trust me' waaaay too much.

Wilwa - saw the downsides of having the stunned person reveal. Says focusing on TBW distracts from the more immediate danger of wolves and cobblers. Seems to have pretty clear and thought through reasons against Agan's revealing plan. I thought she was looking pretty good but then she takes against Glirdan for no reason I can particularly see.

Glirdan - says focus on the wolves and cobblers and let the less obviously dangerous Gifted's sort themselves out. Makes sense to me though in these early Days we're as likely to get one of them as we are anything else! Adapts Agan's TBW outing plan to work for cobblers.

Right, well. To be honest none of them seem desperately suspicious! I'd be more tempted to go for wilwa because to be honest I can't see the reasoning behind Glirdan being suspicious. He's doing stream-of-consciousness posting but it doesn't seem particularly guilt-ridden.

So:

++WILWA

I noted before that Wilwa certainly didn't "take against Glirdan for no reason".

Day 2

*waves at Nog from my little yellow submarine*

And I have to take back what I said yesterDay about wilwa's vote for Glirdan. I thought it was based on pretty much nothing other than feelings, but clearly she has much more of a gut-based grasp on Glirdan than I do!

Let's lynch Agan. It'll make everyone happy ... except Agan ... and then we can finish that argument!

Only joking. I was about to make a proper post but I've just been informed that dinner is ready. So I'll be back in a bit to actually say something (hopefully) useful.

Retracts her reasoning behind the vote for Wilwa (which I'd pointed out was wrong).

Moi?!

Right, I'm going to wander through Day 2 now, have a look at what's been going on.

Ooh one thing though. There was some argument between Agan and .... someone. I want to say Nerwen but I can't remember. It was about not knowing the rules and that being a really guilty thing to do. Just wanted to put it out there that I disagree. These games with experimental roles are complicated. If even Boro is altering/clarifying the rules still then I don't think not being totally certain on them counts as particular grounds for suspicion. This might have been laid to rest already but I just suddenly remembered it.

I don't remember discussions of one not understanding rules making them suspicious. I'm not saying for certain that no one mentioned it, but this seems an odd thing for her to bring up here.

Day 2:

Shasta: I actually love him for his first comment. Assumption 1: The wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. And suggested Nog for being sure about Agan, while questioning this as Agan went after Nog. Bit of a non-thought maybe? Says not only the BW would pose as the Seer, other roles may well do it too. Says Inzil is defending Nog. Well, technically yes, but I think more what he's doing is arguing that other people should be looked at as well. Now I don't like the way Shasta leaps on this comment of Inzil's, but nor do I much like these attempts to 'out' the Seer by either of them. Assumption 2: The wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace. Mentioned by others already and yeah fair point.

wilwa: Says the wolves went for the Barrow Wight. Suggests we look at quiet players or look for Seer hints. Prefers the former as the latter will be harder. Given that there was no kill so there are no 'safe' players to look for Seer hints in I do think that the latter would also be a bit more dangerous for the Seer. Interesting idea of something to do with Shasta's throwaway comment. Good point that actually the BW isn't going to know anything really. Say Nog was the Ranger and the BW stunned him, unless it's made explicit in the narration that the Ranger's role was affected, the BW isn't going to be able to deduce that the Ranger must be Nog.

Nog: I'm ... not quite sure what he was arguing here. Seems to be saying that Shasta was totally wrong to suggest he might be Seer ... but that actually Shasta wasn't saying that, but rather that he (Nog) was the BW pretending to be the Seer so the Seer would waste a dream on him. Is that right? I got lost in this. Says it is in the opposite interests of the BW to attract Seer attention. Pushes the quiet players = evil theory as per usual! About half a Day after everyone else this time. I'm hating this 'code' - I can't remember what any of the letters stand for. Won't vote Greenie as she can't be here. Won't vote Agan because though he thinks she's a Cobbler he thinks she gets good discussion going. To be honest, if you think someone is evil I'd say go after them, but I suppose it's good reasoning.

Inzil: Don't get it. Why bring a comment on Volo in to suggest Nog was the Seer when the comment had no 'certainty' to it. Throws Eomer in as a possible Seer candidate for being 'certain' about Agan - fair point actually. Says that Glirdan voting wilwa means he didn't think her a wolf - I actually wouldn't bet on that. Where I argue with Inzil is the idea that Shasta was 'pushing' Nog as a suggestion. Actually, Shasta's suggestions about Nog were within the same post and then any other discussion was in answer to other people's comments on that post. So I wouldn't have said he was 'pushing' the idea. "Oh, I think potential Seers are a priority for wolves, certainly. But Shasta zeroing in on Nog the way he did to the apparent exclusion of all else is what struck me. " This I feel is inflammatory and unfair.

Lottie: Thinks quieter people or early voters would be more likely Night kills, suggesting Eomer, Form and Elfie (I like that shortening!). Well fair point. Says Eomer might be the BW but that we should leave the BW up to TB. In these early days it is more important to go wolf hunting, but as Shasta says talking about the BW does give TB more information to go on. Thinks Nog and Shasta innocent, thinks Eomer is the BW, thinks wilwa and Inzil are ok and is tempted to vote for Elfie for being quiet or Pitch after yesterDay. Votes Elfie because Pitch hasn't spoken - I like that, giving someone a chance to defend themselves.

Nerwen: Says if Nog were the Wight then Agan would be a cobbler not a wolf anyway. Um, why? Says Eomer doesn't count as a no-trace kill. I'm glad she was as confused by Nog as I was. Votes Agan for overplaying the Cobbler thing, being overly defensive and going after the BW too much.

Elfie: Just one post? Says Lottie seems ok and votes Eomer because he (?) has no idea what he might be. Erm, right, odd. And says Volo seems ok on further consideration. Really strange little post this.

Eomer: Says let TB go after Nog toNight and ignore him from now on. Yeah why not?

Greenie: Doesn't trust people who don't make an effort with their vote, for example Form and Eomer. "Other than that, I'm quite at a loss with why Nog calling Agan a cobbler makes it probable Aganwolf and her pack would think him the Seer who had dreamed her." I love this comment because I think this is the crux of the argument and is where I'm totally lost.

Volo: Thinks Nog might be a wolf because he's tense, but thinks if he were a wolf then he'd be hiding this better. Doesn't think he's the BW. Thinks Agan suspicious for putting forth a way to out the BW which would take attention away from the lynch itself. Well it's a fair reason. Thinks Shasta innocent. Interesting idea that the BW may take against the innocents if outed that way. Thinks Greenie and wilwa look ok, not sure on anyone else. Will likely vote a quiet player.

Form: Nothing in that post except complaints. And a second one!

wilwa: I'm reading these posts having seen Shasta explain that he wasn't only focusing on Nog, he just hadn't had a chance to get further. I don't know whether, had I not seen this already, I'd have read the argument in the same way as wilwa - who says Shasta seemed to think only Nog was a possibility. That said, I still agree that we need to be careful when talking about possible Seers.

Agan - ah, I've realised I've been skimming Agan's posts and not commenting. Well I probably commented on most of what she said when talking about other people. Anyway. Finds Nog, sally, Volo, Nerwen and Shasta guilty. Finds Greenie, wilwa, Pitch and Lottie innocent. Likely to vote Nog, Volo or sally. She has reasoning for everyone, and based on how many discussions and arguments she's been involved in with most of the people named it is pretty extensive.

Votes:
Nerwen - Agan

By the way - Volo made a Freudian slip? What was that?

Oh and Pitch. I didn't mean to offend with my appalling lack of memory. Our dear mod has to give me daily reminders that the game is going on just so I remember to turn up so please don't think it's just you!

Ah and it was Pitch not Nerwen who had that argument with Agan about the rules. Which is funny given this later comment by Pitch: Right. I just checked the rules to find that the Seer, in this game, can actually find out the Cobbler.

Right, posting this then I'll think about a vote.

I wonder why she takes me to task for saying Shasta was too focused on Nog, but seems to give Wilwa a pass for the same thing.

Leaning guilty:
Shasta - I think it's great that he's around with ideas and I do think his words have been taken out of context a lot. That said, I think he focuses on the Seer too much and could potentially be a Cobbler taking attention away from the wolves.

Nog - Confusing and rude in tone to Agan.

Inzil - Well maybe being in the middle of the argument alters your view but as I said I thought some of his comments were inflammatory and unfair.

Elfie: Didn't like that single post. Unlikely to vote her because she said she won't be back.

Volo - Is going to be in deep trouble if his style keeps getting him on to this side of the lists. Because that's why he's here - what he's actually said seems ok, but there's something running the wrong way there.

Leaning innocent:
Lottie - Think she's ok.
Eomer.
Greenie.

No idea:
Nerwen
wilwa
Form - and I'm oh so tempted to vote him so the hardship of being here is removed for him.
Agan - there's almost too much surrounding her to be able to decide what to do there. I'm still half inclined to suggest lynching her and be done with it!

Haha I accidentally wrote about wilwa twice! In the first section I conclude she's pretty innocent, in the section I get rather suspicious! I've put her in no idea as a result.

Back in a minute with a vote. Want to check any cross posts first.

Under "Leaning Guilty", has Shasta, Nog, Me, TEW, and Volo. Form is under "No idea".


Argh I missed Pitch off - I'm seriously going to be hated soon. :D If it's any consolation the last post made me think you innocent.

So, vote:

[++FORM
I'm going on principles. Don't want to play? Feel free to leave.

The obvious question is why she voted for Form over someone she actually found suspicious.

*sigh* And of course my vote cross posts with Form. Oh well.

Would it have made a difference? :rolleyes:

Overall, I'm rather worried about her, mainly for her votes and the reasoning therein.

x/d with Wilwa and Shasta

[A Little Green]

Agan – Seems generally reasonable, and I like it that she really puts an effort into the game. Don't agree with everything she says though.

Eomer – Still not much on him. Not surprised if he's a wolf sitting back and taking it easy. Might deserve a closer look.

Formendacil – Confuses me to no end. I have a hard time seeing him as a wolf, but almost as hard seeing him innocent.

Inziladun – Enigmatic as ever.

Kath – Pays a lot of attention to fair play which I appreciate. In her list post three of her five guilties were there mainly due to being rude or unfair to others. While I'm strictly of the opinion that such behaviour needs to be pointed out and criticised, I don't see it as a sign of wolvery. I can't help thinking that her ”going on principles” -vote would have been the perfect move for a wolf: a reasoned vote that isn't really risky whatever happens later. Her tone seems genuine but I can't shrug off the idea that she might be just fooling me big time. And Inzil's analysis didn't make me feel any better.

Loslote – Hmm. I usually ”catch” her when she's innocent. Now she's been flying under my radar which has me slightly worried, but I have nothing on her apart from that.

Nerwen – Shrewd and smooth as always, no idea as to what her role could be. Might deserve a closer look.

Pitchwife – Quite frankly no idea.

Sally – Haven't seen much of her, which is a pity. Her Day 1 vote wasn't fabulous but I'd be unwilling to vote her unless she turns up as that wouldn't be quite fair, given that her absence is probably due to being ill.

Shasta – I have not ignored the possibility that he might be a wolf, which I do every time he actually is one. Feeling ok at the moment.

The Elf-Warrior – Not sure I like this One Post per Day -attitude though he might be just busy. His posts don't look too good either though there's too little substance to base any proper reasoned opinions on. Might check his posts though, it's not as if that's too big a project.

Wilwa – Seems very genuine to me.

[Pitchwife]

However Inzil was initially suspicious of Volo because of the way he went after me, ie. didn't say a word about me but voted for me because I thought Greenie, whom he suspected, was innocent (this happened mainly on day 1).
continued from
Also, he only suspects Greenie but votes for me (when I already have a vote).
which was based on
Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?
As you see, he was pondering the possibility of your being evil in the very same post. It's not really like he 'didn't say a word about' you and 'only suspected Greenie' but then all of a sudden voted you for no reason than you already had a vote. Some more twisting going on here?
And to be fair, I think he had a point - you Finns all have a long tradition of being at each other's throats in almost every single game, and Volo knows you all quite well, so I think I understand why your lack of suspicion of Greenie seemed eyebrow-raising to him, maybe pointing to you two being packmates.

(x-ed from #286 down)

[Inziladun]

The next few hours are looking to be very busy, so I probably won't be around anymore toDay.

TEW has not done himself any favours in my view, and I can see the temptation to vote for him. Seems too easy though, and I'm not convinced he's not merely a busy innocent.

And to get away from those who have been in the spotlight most, let's go with

++Kath

Dodgy votes and a demeanor that feels different than innocent-Kath

Vote well, folks.

x/d with Pitch

[A Little Green]

Oh, and I agree with Agan and Wilwa that this quietness is not constructive, and more than that, it's dangerous. (A pity Nog is dead, I'm sure he would agree too.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Now, perhaps we can put Shasta's theory to rest.

At least there's no kill toNight.
I can't help but pull a Lottie here and say that this seems oddly showy for Inzil (Wilwa's post above is similar, but gives off a different sort of feel than this casual one-liner). However, I've been after Inzil a lot, so maybe I'm just biased here.

Looking back now, both Greenie and Sally, two of the remaining three voters, had indicated they would not be around. That left Eomer, who wasn't likely to vote for himself at that point even if he'd been innocent.
...And this looks like Inzil is pulling the most mundane parts out of people's posts to respond to to look helpful. :rolleyes: My next comment will be about someone else other than jittery Inzil, I promise.

Only if he's really cleaned up his act since last time.
What's that supposed to mean, dear one? :p

Skipping over the drivel in #255 like I said I would...

I notice the only thing Eomer's put forth today is that he agrees with Nerwen about the possibility of wolves holding their votes until late, and doesn't see anything Seerish about Nog. It's been a while since I played with Eomer, but I seem to remember him being more... involved, as a wolf. He's striking me as 'bored ordo' right now, but I could still vote him on principle! *mean look*

It just seemed so useless to suggest we try to figure out whom the wolves targeted.
And I still disagree with you.

Perhaps we can technically "afford to lynch another quiet player", but that doesn't mean we should.
Why shouldn't we, Inzil? It's a given fact that quiet players are harder to catch at anything than loud players simply because of the amount of talking they do. Plus I'm for lynching lurkers on principle and always have been. :p I'm not saying I'm going to today (though I am considering it; Eomer for his constant "I'll say more" and not living up to it]), but I don't understand why you seem to be so against it.

I can't help thinking that her ”going on principles” -vote would have been the perfect move for a wolf:
I don't really see why having principles automatically makes you wolvish.

TEW has not done himself any favours in my view, and I can see the temptation to vote for him. Seems too easy though, and I'm not convinced he's not merely a busy innocent.
TEW as a vote is "too easy", yet voting for someone who hasn't shown up today (Kath) isn't? Need I remind you that that's practically identical to how I got lynched as the Seer last game?

Inzil is currently topping my "will vote for" list, followed by Eomer. In fact, why don't I just make that list...

Would like to vote for -
Inzil
Eomer
TEW
Agan

Won't be voting for -
Wilwa
Lottie
Greenie

Currently neutral on -
Pitch
Nerwen

Would be a principle vote, but probably won't be voting unless circumstances change -
Sally
Kath
Form

[Aganzir]

Quiet
Eomer
Formendacil
Kath
Sally
The Elf-Warrior
I'd consider putting Kath into the Moderately Loud group, just to be fair. I think she has posted more of substance than the others.

And as for sally, if she doesn't show up today, she'll be modfired.

It's not really like he 'didn't say a word about' you and 'only suspected Greenie' but then all of a sudden voted you for no reason than you already had a vote.
As I see it, that hardly counts as suspicion. The possibility of me doing something as a baddie doesn't make me a baddie, and someone saying so doesn't make me think they are actually suspecting me. And I never said he only voted for me because I already had a vote!

And to be fair, I think he had a point - you Finns all have a long tradition of being at each other's throats in almost every single game
Hahaha! :D We might abide by the stereotype of Finns being aggressive and violent, but at least we aren't quiet! ;)

[A Little Green]

I don't really see why having principles automatically makes you wolvish.Don't over-interpret me, darling. Of course it doesn't, nor did I say so. Every one of us (hopefully) has some moral principles concerning this game, and they generally don't change with role. What I was talking about was Kath voting on those principles. It just occurred to me that while perfectly logical for an innocent Kath too, voting on principles rather than suspicion would be pretty clever for a wolf, and once I had thought of that I couldn't shrug off the feeling.

[Aganzir]

It's been a while since I played with Eomer, but I seem to remember him being more... involved, as a wolf.
Last time I played with him, he was a wolf and I don't think he was much more involved.

Why shouldn't we, Inzil?
And still you have the two people with the highest post count on your Would like to vote list...

I don't really see why having principles automatically makes you wolvish.

I don't think she said "automatically", she only said it would be convenient for a wolf.

More tea for me now.

[Aganzir]

It just occurred to me that while perfectly logical for an innocent Kath too, voting on principles rather than suspicion would be pretty clever for a wolf
I'd be careful with that kind of assumptions, though. It isn't basically any better than saying "I can imagine Aganwolf possibly doing that, hmm I wonder if I should vote for her now!"

[wilwarin538]

I'd consider putting Kath into the Moderately Loud group, just to be fair. I think she has posted more of substance than the others.

And as for sally, if she doesn't show up today, she'll be modfired.

Yes, Kath has posted a bit more (though not toDay, but yesterDay she did have some longer ones). Even though her reasoning for her vote on Day 1 still bothers me, because I felt I gave a good reason to vote for Glirdan and she said I didn't, and then she said something about him adapting Agan's plan to find the cobblers, which is not correct, he mentioned the idea but never explained how it would work. Perhaps she was too busy to really look closely, I don't know.

I would feel bad about voting Sally, cause she seems to only be absent due to sickness, and like you said, she may be mod-fired anyway so there's no point in wasting the lynch.

So I'm leaning towards Form, Eomer and TEW. All three of them have given some shoddy reasoning for one or more of their votes, and they all of this careless air about them. I feel like one of them could be a wolf (or the BW) just trying to skate through unnoticed. I'm leaning most towards Eomer now out of the three, but I would be willing to vote any of them.

edit: x'ed with a Greenie and 2 Agans...I want tea now...

[A Little Green]

I'd be careful with that kind of assumptions, though. It isn't basically any better than saying "I can imagine Aganwolf possibly doing that, hmm I wonder if I should vote for her now!"Hold it, love, I never mentioned voting Kath. Neither did I say I assumed Kath's vote was by a wolf, I mentioned it as a possibility because it occurred to me.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Last time I played with him, he was a wolf and I don't think he was much more involved.


And still you have the two people with the highest post count on your Would like to vote list...


I don't think she said "automatically", she only said it would be convenient for a wolf.

More tea for me now.

I never said honest suspicion shouldn't trump lurking, Agan. What's your point here?

[Pitchwife]

I don't remember discussions of one not understanding rules making them suspicious. I'm not saying for certain that no one mentioned it, but this seems an odd thing for her to bring up here.
The discussion Kath referred to in this quote was between Agan and me on Day 1, and was brought up again on Day 2, so I see why Kath commented on it.
I wonder why she takes me to task for saying Shasta was too focused on Nog, but seems to give Wilwa a pass for the same thing.
Hmm, I'm afraid I'll have to go back to that debate and see whether there was any difference between wilwa's position and yours which Kath could have seen. At the moment, however, I'm not awfully inclined to take your analysis at face falue. Sorry.

Moreover, of the quiet ones, Kath has meanwhile made more of an effort to play and give us some reasoned opinions as the others, so if we go for a submarine, I don't think we should start with her.

(x-ed with a load)

[Aganzir]

I would feel bad about voting Sally, cause she seems to only be absent due to sickness, and like you said, she may be mod-fired anyway so there's no point in wasting the lynch.
Yeah that's true, I just mentioned it because I hadn't thought of it before. I probably won't vote for her today but I really disapprove if she keeps posting so little. My next best option is Eomer - I'm also suspicious of Nerwen and a bit less so of Shasta, but I'm not sure I want to vote at least for Shasta today because he's actually posting, so I might even go for Form or EW.

Hold it, love, I never mentioned voting Kath. Neither did I say I assumed Kath's vote was by a wolf, I mentioned it as a possibility because it occurred to me.
I know, the way you phrased it in your explanation post to Shasta just reminded me of the people who seemed to suspect me only because I "might" do something as a wolf, so I felt like pointing it out.

I never said honest suspicion shouldn't trump lurking, Agan. What's your point here?
The thing is, I agree with your point but it just somehow seemed slightly self-contradictory.

[Pitchwife]

I notice the only thing Eomer's put forth today is that he agrees with Nerwen about the possibility of wolves holding their votes until late, and doesn't see anything Seerish about Nog. It's been a while since I played with Eomer, but I seem to remember him being more... involved, as a wolf. He's striking me as 'bored ordo' right now, but I could still vote him on principle! *mean look*
Remember the game when Eowolf and I made you our first Night-kill? (Rhetoric question, I don't think you've forgotten it so soon...:p) He was almost as lazy then as he is now, mostly going after Greenie in an apodictic way with no clearly explained reasons, exactly like he voted Agan on Day1. I certainly wouldn't rule him out as a wolf... or maybe a Wight.


Perhaps we can technically "afford to lynch another quiet player", but that doesn't mean we should.
Why shouldn't we, Inzil? It's a given fact that quiet players are harder to catch at anything than loud players simply because of the amount of talking they do. Plus I'm for lynching lurkers on principle and always have been.
Agreed. And it's interesting Zil said this, given his vote for Kath. Another brick in the wall.

Inzil is currently topping my "will vote for" list, followed by Eomer.
You know what, I could actually get behind this.:eek:

[wilwarin538]

Ok, so I definitely want to go for a submarinish type person today. Not Kath, because she participated much more yesterDay, not Sally cause she's sick, not Form cause he hasn't been on yet toDay and out of the 3 guys I get the most innocent vibes from him (despite the fact that I greatly dislike his votes). So that leaves it to TEW and Eomer, and out of the two I feel like TEW is more likely to be just a busy innocent, while Eomer just....erks me, too quiet and doesn't seem to care all that much, like he'll just be able to skate through.

So here it goes:

++Eomer

I might be able to come back on close to the end of the Day, just want to vote now before I get distracted with other things and forget :rolleyes:.

x'ed with Pitch

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Inziladun

I'm more bothered by what he's said today than what he's said previously, and that's saying something. :p

I'm voting now because I'll be around, but extremely sporadically, and I'd hate to not vote at all.

[A Little Green]

Since no one seems to have done this yet - unless I've missed something our current vote tally looks like this:

Elf-Warrior – Shasta
Nerwen – Agan
Loslote – Elf-Warrior
Inzil – Kath
Wilwa – Eomer
Shasta – Inzil

So no one with more than one vote.

[Aganzir]

I'd rather we didn't lynch Inzil today, even with Pitch's comments on how he suspected Volo I don't think he looks too bad (I mean, no one who reputedly looks like me can look too bad :p) and he at least talks.

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil

Left: Agan, Eomer, Form, Greenie, Kath, Pitch, sally

[Aganzir]

I just realised Eomer will be modfired too if he doesn't show up. Let's see how this goes...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You mean if he doesn't vote, right? He has posted today.

[Aganzir]

You mean if he doesn't vote, right? He has posted today.
Yeah. I meant it like, "if he doesn't show up before deadline."

I almost wish that happened... just because I'm mean like that. At least I wouldn't have to wonder about them anymore.

[Kath]

I have to say if you consider me quiet NOW Inzil then you're in for a shocker. I've been downright loud this game!

Also, yes it would have made a difference to my vote yesterDay if I'd seen Form's post before I voted because I was voting for him based on the fact that he'd made two posts with absolutely no helpfulness in them that in fact only contained complaining about the situation. My 'guilty' and 'innocent' lists were 'leaning toward' not 'certain' and having just read Form's posts he'd wound me up.

Whoever said I gave wilwa a free pass, I included her in my analysis twice and got confused about what I thought about her. As I seemed to have come to two totally different conclusions I decided to leave it be.

My battery is about to die so I'll be back in about 10 minutes or so. Can't promise a major look at the Day as I'm pushed for time. I'll also answer any questions I've missed along the way, or if you have more throw them my way.

[satansaloser2005]

Many (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdxkVQy7QLM&feature=related) things (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtY0fE7z9Yc) about (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iF6kWgkq448) this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ) are not (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQFKtI6gn9Y&feature=related) good (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA5GkLM5C7M). (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDidHzwYu3E)

No, seriously. Yes, there’s no kill toNight, and that’s super, but Nog was a good solid player, and one of the few loud people was have left (until my return, of course, lol). I don’t think the wolves thought he was the seer -well, it’s possible, but I doubt that was their main reason- but if not, he had to have something correct somewhere. Either that or they wanted to keep people’s minds off of other things by killing someone who would lead to a lot of discussion (which it clearly has, so congrats on that).

And now to the previous Night’s kill. That is some BAD STUFF, people. The wolves now have one person who they know the role of, and whom they need to get lynched. Thus, obviously, if we catch all/most of the wolves, it should be fairly easy to spot the BW, because the odds are that the wolves will be going after them heavily. Until then, however, we’re flying blind, and the wolves will know later on in the game who not to kill, which gives them a better chance of hitting our seer or Tom Bombadil. So really, I guess it’s not a HORRIBLE thing, but it isn’t the best time for them to hit the BW, because they now have additional knowledge and thus power.

Basically, good on us for getting rid of a cobbler, and for the lack of a kill tonight, but we need to get wolves, and we need to dwindle their numbers as soon as possible, because the further we get into the game the more powerful the wolves will be, and the less risks they will have to take in making kills, thus giving them an advantage.

Also, how is Agan still alive? I said she was a wolf on Day One and you all just left her? YesterDay she was a possible candidate as well, and yet still, she lives. Unacceptable. She’s at the very least a cobbler (see my list below) and as such needs to die. Let’s take care of that.

Nutshell version: killing wolves is good (http://www.youtube.com/user/freedomworksfilms#p/search/6/c6SHsF1n9Qw). (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6n1PMZ-TBs) Let’s do it (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jT3_UCm1A5I). (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiKcd7yPLdU) Do my points make sense? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfCJgC2zezw) Epic (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jOu-5ebDpc). (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DngUU1MlLcQ)


And now, a list of everyone and a snippet of my feelings on them.



Agan (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOZuxwVk7TU)
I shan’t lie, Agan is playing a good game, but it’s so terribly obvious to me that she’s evil. From her plans to her attitude toward the whole BW thing (my mostly joking “ah, look, she said the BW is a girl!” aside), I can’t see how she could be a goodie. On the other hand, I very nearly want to keep her around just to argue with her later. ;)

Eomer (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6c-umQ_hlc)
I think that a wolf!Eomer may be more vocal, wanting to help out his pack and whatever, but perhaps he could be the BW? Alternatively, he could be our other cobbler. Still, he needs to die, because he’s totally up to something, and I don’t think it’s a good something.

Form (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sekLEG8xsOs)
No read, which is depressing. I’m guessing, however, that Form isn’t changing form at Night.

Greenie (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco)
Her recent interactions with Agan make me think strange things about her, but she’s a low priority for me right now. I’d totally buy her as a cobbler, but I’m still really blah on her. o_O

Dun (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8S_82ZXyTfc)
Too loud! He makes my ears bleed! *smirks* Other than that, however, I’m not feeling a distinct evil or good vibe from him. He may become a priority later, but for now I’ll leave him alone. Basically I’ve overestimated his guilt before and since I have other people to worry about I’ll leave him alone for right now. However, I also wouldn’t be opposed to his lynch; I just wouldn’t probably go in on it at the moment.

Kath (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10P_PC_Vjnc)
She looks reasonable enough, but I think that sweet innocent act could be exactly that.

Lottie (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLdcGSRHaaY&feature=related)
I’m just waiting for someone to mount a campaign against her, or for her to be randomly killed at Night, but neither are happening. Generally a non-suspected Lottie is a guilty Lottie, so we’ll have to see how the game progresses. For now, however, I’ve not seen much that she’s actually done that would make me suspect her. It’s more of a “why is she still alive?” thing which may happen later on, and will make me headdesk at end game if she is in fact evil.

Nerwen (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EkBuKQEkio)
Sense, she makes it, and for that reason I shall keep her alive for now. Besides, I think she’s being sneaky, which means she’s innocent.

Pitchie (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80O0q9e-mHQ)
I’m getting no read on him, though he’s posted enough. I need to look at him more closely, but I have other people who are a higher priority right now, so let’s just consider him on the discussion table and a possible lynch choice later on in the game (which I just lost).

Sally (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9qYF9DZPdw)
Nuf said.

Shasta (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b8mXwSsfdc&feature=related)
I think it’s been said, but his interactions with Nog yesterDay are interesting, and to me clear him of at least direct wolvery. He could be the BW, or the other cobbler, but I’m fairly certain that he’s not a proper wolf. Of course, he’s been helpful, so he needs to die anyway. Whoops. :/

Elfie (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjmjtOnDyYs)
What the whatting what is all I have to say here. His vote toDay makes no sense, unless I’m missing something major, and he’s been far too much of a submarine. Reindeer aside, however, I think that what he does say has a feel of fur to it. Then again, this would be some okay BW behavior, as he comes and goes as he pleases and clearly doesn’t fear being a no-trace Night kill. I think either is a possibility, or perhaps even a cobbler, but I certainly don’t think he’s innocent.

Wilwa (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL3Gf8GqRHw)
I’m fairly certain that Vanilwa has the village’s best interest in mind. Volo’s statement at the end of yesterDay is interesting too, though I need to think about it more. Let’s keep in mind, for the sake of argument, that just because Volo protected her doesn’t mean she’s innocent. She could be a wolf, thus negating Volo’s protection on her while still giving him the idea that she is obviously not the BW. Just putting that out there; I’ll say more about it later. But yeah, pretty much, I think Wilwa’s a good one to keep around. On the other hand, let’s not write her off as a known innocent. We know (or at least can assume) that she’s not the BW. That doesn’t mean she’s not evil, and anyone who DOES make that assumption will look fishy in my eyes.

And now the mods....

Boro (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWXcDZNgOWs)
Son of a proud mother and father. May his modly reign be everlasting.

Fea (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUAXSzYfDGs&feature=related)
Again, enough said.






Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand that's a happy 4,000th post to me. Back soon with more thoughts (and less youtube links). ^_^



ETA: I should mention that not all those links are little ghoul friendly. Most of them are just random though. :)

[A Little Green]

A QUICK LOOK AT THE ELF-WARRIOR. (I accidentally typed "the wlf-warrior" - wonder if that's a signal from my unconscious? :D)

Uncharacteristical to an analysis made by me, I will quote all his posts. After all, there are but eight of them in total with a significant percentage of one-liners. So here goes:

Day 1

All I know is we can't all be wolves.

Actually, I meant we as in all the villagers, but I do know I'm not a wolf, so the statement is correct, even if you two are wolves. These two first ones are basically just Day 1 banter, not really noteworthy.

I say we lynch a suspected BW anyhow. He or she may actually be a wolf. The same goes for suspected cobblers.
Come to think about it, I think Lottie and Glirdan are right. The BW isn't a priority. We should let Tom Bombadil deal with BW suspects. Let us focus on finding wolves. This Legate-180 concerning the BW makes me feel a bit better about EW - I'd think a wolf would try to be consistent and avoid such open changes of mind.

Thing is, though, what do we all suppose to be the distinguishing features of Wightish evil, as opposed to the wolvish or cobblerish kind?
A BW would be extremely concerned about not being lynched. Also, xe would try to prevent either the innocents or the wolves from winning.

A wolf would be concerned about the safety of fellow packmates.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Mr. Goatleaf does have an incentive to stay alive; he probably would want to stay alive long enough for Mr. Ferny to find him and thus be able to communicate with him. It's not that there was much (or any) discussion on other topics than cobblers and barrow-wights at that point, but EW never talks about his suspicions before his vote post:

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta. Referring, I think, to Volo talking about some baddie being killed "silently during the Night" (can't remember the exact quote though). Not a very strong reason but compared to some other votes that Day it can't really be faulted for that.

Day 2

Lottie, you seem OK to me.

I'm voting
++Eomer

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad. I'm gonna flip flop some more and say that Volo seems OK to me after further consideration. I think he's just a little off his game.

I probably won't post any more toDay. I have to work past the deadline and I'd better get some sleep. Bye. His only post of the Day. He does seem notably flip-floppy and points it out himself.

Day 3

++Shasta

I think he tried to frame Nogrod as the BW. Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

This statement sticks in my craw,
How are we supposed to come up with suggestions for Tom Bombadil if we shouldn't look for the Barrow-Wight? You're amusing, Little Lottie.

But really, knowing that the wolves attacked the Wight Night 1 is actually a pretty big piece of information for us. I don't see why we shouldn't pursue it.
That is not what Lottie had been advocating and I think you know it. One way or another, you're goin' down boy.

One last thing, I'm a he. This is the Elf-warrior, signing off. Death to lycanthropes!!And again, a new suspect out of the blue.

Aaand that's it! Conclusions? EW seems consistent in being inconsistent if you know what I mean. I'm slightly uneasy with how much he's flip-flopping. Flip-flopping in itself is by no means evil, and for example in the Barrow-Wight issue it looked like a genuine change of opinion, but I don't like the way he suspects somebody and completely drops it the next Day. Of course people's suspicions change, they are bound to, but I'm at a loss with what happened to suspecting Eomer between Days 2 and 3 - though it's of course possible he simply suspected Shasta more than Eomer toDay. He's certainly acting odd, but still I'm not sure a Wolf-Warrior would be so overtly and openly inconsistent.


EDIT: x-ed with Agan, Kath and Sally

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally!!!!!!

I am so proud of you (and love my video :D), but what does this mean -

Of course, he’s been helpful, so he needs to die anyway. Whoops. :/

This wouldn't be a thlip of the tongue, would it? :p

In any case, welcome back (and don't forget to vote today or you'll get MKed). <3

[satansaloser2005]

It means I love you (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQaCy2lgb0I&feature=related), my little snow cone. <3


ETA: Added youtube link, which took me a bit longer to find than I expected. Huh.

[Pitchwife]

Two hours to DL, is that right? (I'm not quite sure because daylight serving time has ended in Germany last night)

OK, some thoughts on the Volowagon.
wilwa voted Volo for being weird and illogical and talking without saying anything helpful. Fair enough, and she was the first to vote him, so no wolvish bandwagoning here.
Agan found Volo weird too, and voted him for voting her after he'd suspected Greenie, on which I've commented above. She also has some possibly cobblerish behaviour from Day 1 against her. I don't know, I keep excusing her just because we get along so well, and I agree with many things she keeps saying inbetween. Note that she's also agreed with me a lot, which should worry me as it could be wolvish buttering-up. I don't think I'll vote for her toDay, but I'm not sure I'd raise a hand to save her either.
Zil - third vote on the wagon, and his previously stated suspicion of Volo looks shaky bordering on fishy to me. Not so happy with his vote toDay either.
Shasta - x-ed with Zil, could be a bandwagoning wolf as well, and I don't at the moment remember whether he'd talked that much about Volo earlier. His posts toDay make me more inclined to think him innocent, however (which is quite alarming - last time I thought that he turned out to be a wolf...)
(Nog - known innocent)

From the above, I think I could vote Zil. Other than that, I could vote for Eomer again; on the other hand it would be quite nice to leave him (and sally?) to Modfire and not waste a lynch on a submarine, giving us a chance to get a louder wolf instead.

(x-ed with sally pp.)

[satansaloser2005]

Two hours to DL, is that right?

Half an hour until DL, pumpkin.

[Aganzir]

I'm tempted not to vote for sally today because she's just freaking hilarious. :D Thanks a lot for the song. :p

Seriously though, her post hasn't lessened my suspicion at all. It looks... contrived.

That is some BAD STUFF, people. The wolves now have one person who they know the role of, and whom they need to get lynched.
I fail to see what's so bad if the wolves try to lynch the BW. First, it's one baddie down. Second, doing so might lead back to them. I don't think the wolves would go heavily after the BW (all of them at least), just because people might pay attention to such behaviour later - but it should be possible to find things in their posts that suggest they know more than the rest of us. It looks like you're intentionally trying to make it sound like the wolves would behave in a certain way, and it's dangerous.

Also, how is Agan still alive? I said she was a wolf on Day One and you all just left her?
That probably tells more about you than me. :Merisu:

I'd rather maybe not lynch EW today either.

[Aganzir]

I'm not sure I'd raise a hand to save her either.
Pitch! I thought you were a gentleman. :( :Merisu:

My thoughts in a nutshell:

GUILTY
sally
Nerwen
Eomer
Shasta

INNOCENT
Greenie
wilwa
Pitch
Lottie
Zil

EITHER
Form
Kath
EW

I'd prefer to vote for one on my Guilty list, preferably sally or Eomer.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm tempted not to vote for sally today because she's just freaking hilarious. :D Thanks a lot for the song. :p

You're welcome! :)

I fail to see what's so bad if the wolves try to lynch the BW. First, it's one baddie down. Second, doing so might lead back to them. I don't think the wolves would go heavily after the BW (all of them at least), just because people might pay attention to such behaviour later - but it should be possible to find things in their posts that suggest they know more than the rest of us. It looks like you're intentionally trying to make it sound like the wolves would behave in a certain way, and it's dangerous.

But why wouldn't they go after the BW? Seriously, think about it. The only way to get rid of the BW is to get him/her lynched. And no, they might not all go for him/her, but the people who are saying "yay, look, they tried to kill the BW!" aren't taking into account that the wolves now KNOW who the BW is. Thus, they're not going to kill him/her at Night, which means they'll be going after the rest of us, including our seer and Tom Bombadil, and having a better chance of hitting them than they would have had they not eliminated the BW from their Nightly equation. Hence, not good. Not really bad, either, but also not shiny.

And I have no idea what the wolves would do. I just know that it's a possibility, and thus we need to consider it. Besides, why are you trying to discount my idea when you agree that they will know more than the rest of us? Are you trying to hide something? I can't help but wonder if you're the BW, and not a wolf as I am currently suspecting. Still, you look mighty twitchy, which makes me think I also could have just nailed your battle plan on the head and you're (even more) nervous.


I'd rather maybe not lynch EW today either.

Good. Me neither. I'd much rather lynch you.

[Pitchwife]

Half an hour? Oops, thanks for the correction, sally (and I'm 'pumpkin' now, am I?:D) And congratulations on your epic 4000th post!

[satansaloser2005]

GUILTY
sally

Yes, clearly, because I've caught you in your guilt in the what, three posts I've made all game? Goodness, you've got me! *feigns unease*

Also, I laugh heartily at that Pitch comment. :)


Need to leave soon-ish, or at least get ready to do so, so I'll be away for a few minutes.

[Aganzir]

But why wouldn't they go after the BW?
Because it might lead back to them? In my opinion it'd make more sense to keep their hands clear and wait for Tom to take care of her.

Thus, they're not going to kill him/her at Night, which means they'll be going after the rest of us, including our seer and Tom Bombadil, and having a better chance of hitting them than they would have had they not eliminated the BW from their Nightly equation. Hence, not good. Not really bad, either, but also not shiny.
Yeah but they already wasted a kill on the BW which means the seer got one more dream. So I wouldn't go so far as to call it "BAD STUFF".

And I have no idea what the wolves would do. I just know that it's a possibility, and thus we need to consider it. Besides, why are you trying to discount my idea when you agree that they will know more than the rest of us?
Because I think you look mighty suspicious and your idea looks intentionally misleading.

Yes, clearly, because I've caught you in your guilt in the what, three posts I've made all game? Goodness, you've got me! *feigns unease*
Sally, if you want to suspect someone with fabricated-looking reasons, I'm not the right person to choose. Know this.

[A Little Green]

Ah, silly me, I had kind of miscounted the daylight savings thing and was expecting DL in two and a half hours. :o Don't know how that's possible, but maths is really not my thing...

So. I don't feel like adding any more candidates for the lynch as there are fine enough ones already. I'd put them in the following order of preference (least desired lynch being on top and most desired on the bottom):

Agan
Shasta
Kath
Inzil
Elf-Warrior
Eomer

I could think of voting either of the two last. I'm guessing Agan is innocent, Shasta and Kath seem similarly genuine but I'm not at all certain about them. Inzil I'm at a loss with.


EDIT: x-ed with loads

[Aganzir]

Under 10 minutes till deadline, where is everybody?

I'd really like to vote for sally but unfortunately I don't think enough others will and I don't want to throw away my vote.

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil

Left: Agan, Eomer, Form, Greenie, Kath, Pitch, sally

[satansaloser2005]

Sally, if you want to suspect someone with fabricated-looking reasons, I'm not the right person to choose. Know this.

Excellent. I'll be sure to only use my legitimate ones then, which are still enough to get you exposed as the baddie you are. Buh-bye.

++Agan (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnzHtm1jhL4)





And just in case Boro is cranky and it matters that I linked that....

++Agan

[Boromir88]

Bit under 10 minutes left.

Also popping in to say that Fea is being a good girl in completing her school work today so I'll be doing the narration. It won't be anything like her amusing videos, so whoever does die, sorry you'll have to make due with a written by me. I've got family business right after so as soon as I close the DL and confirm who's got the most votes, the role will be revealed.

[A Little Green]

Does anyone else find the thing between Agan and Sally more than a bit off? Not sure what's going on there but it makes me feel worse about both.

[Kath]

Yay for no Night kill coming by the way. Form will likely be spitting though.

wilwa: States the obvious but I'm not complaining, it's good to know where we stand. Oh answered Pitch anyway. Not a fan of ElfHe either. Supports lynching a quiet player. Sure since it means you're safe. :rolleyes:

Inzil: Says we can put Shasta's theory to rest. Sure, but let's not just ignore all the debate around it - such talk can often hold clues in later Days once we know more roles. Thinks Shasta may be a Cobbler. Bit of a defence of sally after Agan said 'let's lynch a quiet player'. Analyses me! Exciting. Someone answered the 'rules' thing already.

Lottie: Is she saying that because Nog wasn't TBW that means Eomer is more likely to be? Not sure about that logic. And why does Agan have to be evil for that to be possible? Have I just missed an explanatory post somewhere on this? Ah ok, got it. I can sort of see where she's coming from ... if we're accepting that wolves follow blindly the suggestions of the Day. Given the potential wolves we have I'm not sure that's the case. I like the thinking-through though. "What could a Shastawolf have gained from framing Nog as TBW - especially considering he would have killed him the very next Night?" <-- No sorry I'm confused again. If Nog were being framed and had actually been lynched yesterDay Shastawolf would have been able to move on and kill someone else. The fact that Nog wasn't lynched may have led Shastawolf to suggest killing him so the village goes 'oh well unlikely Shasta is a wolf to have done that'. But we're on to double/triple bluffing tactics and that just gets impossible. Says she might vote for ElfHe or Eomer. Votes ElfHe for being a submarine.

Nerwen: Following Lottie's ideas better than I was! Volo-voters analysis. As a thought, I thought Nog meant that Eomer made more sense as in his meaning-making was better not that Eomer made more sense as a wolf. Votes Agan ... um? Wish people would put reasons in their vote-posts, I'm assuming this is for being a Volo-voter.

ElfHe: Well there's some reasoning in here at least. Votes Shasta for twisting Lottie's words. Why such a strenuous defence of Lottie I don't know, but he seems pretty convinced about Shasta. I don't like the playing style I must say, this popping in and out with single posts.

Eomer: Agrees with Nerwen that a wolf is likely in the Volo-voters. Says he didn't see Nog as Seerish and thus odd wolf kill. Easy to say in hindsight.

Pitch: Volo as Ranger could have known wilwa wasn't TBW. If he protected her Night 1, when the wolves went after TBW, then clearly wilwa isn't TBW as there was no mention of the Ranger in the narration. That's how I read it anyway. He didn't though know her actual role. Says Inzil had tried to make Volo look self-contradictory which is suspicious.

Agan: Not quite a defence of ElfHe but pretty close. Analyses Inzil and finds him non-suspicious. Suggests lynching a quiet player, specifically sally. Says Inzil's reasons may be less innocent looking but that his suspicion of Volo was fair.

Greenie: Thinks Agan voting for Volo was odd because she knows he always plays in the way she suspected him for. Apart from Shasta and wilwa has no concrete thoughts. So if she's a wolf, one of those two is a packmate and the other an innocent. Some good thoughts in there.

Oh and can I mention how much I LOVE this game for the fact that there are only two pages to catch up on! Bliss. <-- Wrote that before I realised I was out of time. I've not got to the end so will have to vote based on what I have got.

[Aganzir]

Excellent. I'll be sure to only use my legitimate ones then, which are still enough to get you exposed as the baddie you are. Buh-bye.

++Agan (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnzHtm1jhL4)
Haha looking forward to that.

++Eomer

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil
sally - Agan 2
Agan - Eomer 2
Left: Eomer, Form, Greenie, Kath, Pitch

[Pitchwife]

Unfortunately, it looks like both of my top vote candidates won't be back toDay:(. Voting someone in absence always seems unsportsmanlike, but sometimes you have nothing better.

Eomer's probably going to be modfired, so

++Zil
It's a long time since I've had any suspicion on him, but I there's a chance I won't be fooled this time.

EDIT: x-ed with the last two, so this wasn't me being gentlemanly!!!

[satansaloser2005]

Does anyone else find the thing between Agan and Sally more than a bit off? Not sure what's going on there but it makes me feel worse about both.

It's called "I wasn't around the last Day or two and I'm not letting her escape a lynch again because she should have been dead yesterDay" if you've not heard of it. ;)

Of course her end is a just pretty rubbish frame job. Trying to kill me based on like two posts when Elf has nearly the same number and has actually been suspicious? Heh. Nice try. :p

[A Little Green]

++ Elf-Warrior

Since I just remembered that Eomer might be modfired anyway, and EW was second-lowest on my list. His inconsistency might be genuine but it seems too off to be so. And he's a submarine and he's somewhat unhelpful.


EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Aganzir]

Eomer's probably going to be modfired, so
I know but he's the only one who already has a vote that I actually suspect.

Trying to kill me based on like two posts when Elf has nearly the same number and has actually been suspicious? Heh. Nice try. :p
I would disagree with this, you're by far more suspicious than he.

[Aganzir]

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil
sally - Agan 2
Agan - Eomer 2
Pitch - Zil 2
Greenie - EW 2

Left: Eomer, Form, Kath

[satansaloser2005]

I would disagree with this, you're by far more suspicious than he.

Only because you know I'm right and thus you need me dead. Mind you, I completely understand what you're doing, and I'd probably do the same thing, but it's not going to work. Sorry, muffin. And actually, I wish you weren't evil, because then I wouldn't have to kill you. You never stick around to play anymore. :(

[satansaloser2005]

This....

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil
sally - Agan 2
Agan - Eomer 2
Pitch - Zil 2
Greenie - EW 2

Left: Eomer, Form, Kath


....is unacceptable. Someone better bloody well break the tie.

[Kath]

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil

Wow 5 lynch candidates? Well form those I'd be tempted to go for ElfHe for being a bit submarine and non-useful. But somebody said he gets louder as the game goes and I don't recall playing with him before (yeah yeah shoot me if I've forgotten) so if this is true I'm willing to give him another Day.

Argh a minute! Um, ok, I odn't want to lynch the others so:

++ElfHE
Despite what I just said.

[Aganzir]

Only because you know I'm right and thus you need me dead. Mind you, I completely understand what you're doing, and I'd probably do the same thing, but it's not going to work. Sorry, muffin. And actually, I wish you weren't evil, because then I wouldn't have to kill you. You never stick around to play anymore. :(
Erm what?

[Boromir88]

Deadline. No more chatter nor voting.

I'll count the votes, cus right now I have no clue and role should be revealed within about 5 minutes.

[satansaloser2005]

Erm what?

You're evil, and I've clearly caught you. Thus, the easiest way to save your skin is to discredit me. I don't have a problem with it, really. It's just not going to work is all.

Also, Kath....interesting. This could shed some funny-colored lights on things.



EDIT: x'd with Boro. Terribly sorry, my lord.

[Pitchwife]

No quadruple tie! Noooo!

EDIT: x-ed with the Mod and DL

[Kath]

Wow lucky cross posting there! I think? I broke the tie right?

EDIT: Oops sorry Boro-mod.

[Boromir88]

No quadruple tie! Noooo!

Well from my count it has been broken and Elfie is lynched.

Edit:

Yep tis Elfie and wow you lot have a huge tendancy to kill your gifteds.

Seer be dead. Carry on with night activities narration later.

[Boromir88]

I'm also going to be "opening" the day a little ahead of usual since I'm having dinner a little earlier than normal.

Wolves you may continue to chatter til 6pm EST if need be.

But for all intents and purposes, it is now Day 4. Elfie was lynched yesterday. RIP Bree's seer and because of Butterbur's death the previous night there was no kill during the night.

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
Wilwa

DEAD
Boro (Mod) - knocked out stone-cold - Night 1
Fea (honorary co-mod) - nommed by wolfies - Night 1
Glirdan (cobbler) - Harry Goatleaf - Day 1
No death! - Night 2
Volo (innocent) - Ranger - Day 2
Nogrod (innocent) - Butterbur - Night 3
Elf-Warrior (innocent - Seer - Day 3
No death! - Night 4

[Inziladun]

Looking at TEW's votes, it's pretty clear to me where my vote toDay should go.

Day 1

I'm gonna go with ++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

He hadn't dreamed of Volo then, obviously, so this was apparently just based on his feelings.

Day 2

Lottie, you seem OK to me.

I'm voting
++Eomer

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad. I'm gonna flip flop some more and say that Volo seems OK to me after further consideration. I think he's just a little off his game.

I'm not sure if he dreamed of Eomer or not. TEW is very vague about what he thinks Eomer is here. This vote could be, like the one for Volo, merely based on his thoughts.
The fact that he singled out Lottie to tell her she "seemed OK", and Volo to say that he also "seems OK" at that point leads me to think it's possible he dreamed of Lottie Night 1, and Volo Night 2. Since TEW had suspected Volo enough to vote for him Day 1, it seems logical he would have dreamed Volo the next Night.

On the other hand....

Day 3

++Shasta

I think he tried to frame Nogrod as the BW. Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

This statement sticks in my craw, That is not what Lottie had been advocating and I think you know it. One way or another, you're goin' down boy.

One last thing, I'm a he. This is the Elf-warrior, signing off. Death to lycanthropes!!

It doesn't get much clearer than this. He flat out accused Shasta of being a wolf. Coupled with Shasta's forced case against me, it makes even more sense.

So, my vote toDay requires no more thought.

++Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

After looking at all (eight) of the Elf-Warrior's posts, I've come to the conclusion that he had a nasty habit of voting people before dreaming them.

Now, I have no idea who EW dreamt Night 1, but his Day 1 vote was for Volo, as shown here -
I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.
The "slip" I found was that Volo said something about 'killing quietly at night'. Not the most impressive reasons to vote someone out of the blue.

Moving on to Night 2. I'm fairly sure EW dreamt of Volo here and found him innocent - he dropped off Volo pretty handily (in true Legate style), as shown here -
Lottie, you seem OK to me.

I'm voting
++Eomer

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad. I'm gonna flip flop some more and say that Volo seems OK to me after further consideration. I think he's just a little off his game.
(bolding mine)
As an aside, could EW have dreamt of Lottie Night 1? My only gripe with that is, why would EW have waited a day to say so?

In any case, EW jumps rather quickly from Volo onto Eomer. However, the wishy-washyness of this statement argues against EW having already dreamt Eomer.

Which brings us to Night 3, and Day 3, in which EW posted once, as seen here -
++Shasta

I think he tried to frame Nogrod as the BW. Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

This statement sticks in my craw,
That is not what Lottie had been advocating and I think you know it. One way or another, you're goin' down boy.

One last thing, I'm a he. This is the Elf-warrior, signing off. Death to lycanthropes!!
Notice how EW completely drops his suspicion of Eomer here (doesn't even mention him, in fact) and jumps onto me. I'm fairly certain he dreamt of Eomer and found him innocent. He probably would have jumped onto someone else tomorrow after dreaming me, but we lynched him.

TLDR; I think EW's dreams were:
N1 - Lottie? - innocent
N2 - Volo - innocent
N3 - Eomer - innocent

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Looking at TEW's votes, it's pretty clear to me where my vote toDay should go.

Day 1



He hadn't dreamed of Volo then, obviously, so this was apparently just based on his feelings.

Day 2



I'm not sure if he dreamed of Eomer or not. TEW is very vague about what he thinks Eomer is here. This vote could be, like the one for Volo, merely based on his thoughts.
The fact that he singled out Lottie to tell her she "seemed OK", and Volo to say that he also "seems OK" at that point leads me to think it's possible he dreamed of Lottie Night 1, and Volo Night 2. Since TEW had suspected Volo enough to vote for him Day 1, it seems logical he would have dreamed Volo the next Night.

On the other hand....

Day 3



It doesn't get much clearer than this. He flat out accused Shasta of being a wolf. Coupled with Shasta's forced case against me, it makes even more sense.

So, my vote toDay requires no more thought.

++Shasta

1. Voting this early in the day is never a good thing, and smacks of nasty cobblerism. Which doesn't surprise me, considering. :rolleyes:

2. So what's your explanation for EW's flat dropping of Eomer as a suspect overNight, then?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I made the following notes at work and emailed them home. May not include complete sentences. ;)

------

Elf

Votes Volo but then retracts suspicion “after further consideration”. Possibly dreamed about him on Night 2.

Mentions that Loslote “seems OK to him”. Dreamed about her first night?

Votes Eomer.

Next day votes Shasta. Very convinced. Shasta clearly a wolf.





Reactions to EW’s vote for Shasta.

Loslote tries to discredit him immediately (within 15 minutes).

Shasta himself refuses to argue with EW.

Inziladun mentions it in a neutral manner, then goes on to discuss other matters.

Wilwa not best pleased with EW’s method perhaps genuinely exasperated at players not posting much?

Aganzir doesn’t see anything too off with EW.

Loslote starts the chain of voting which would kill EW.

Inziladun makes sure to mention EW’s name as a potential lynch but votes for Kath instead.

Sally very suspicious of EW, but would rather vote Aganzir.

Green and Kath also vote EW.





Shasta wants to kill TEW, Inziladun, Eomer and Aganzir. This is before he is heavily suspected due to EW’s vote and death. He won’t be voting for Wilwa, Loslote or Green and he’s neutral on Pitch and Nerwen.

Sally, Kath and Form unclear to him.

Shasta votes for Inziladun.



Wolves: Shasta.

Probably not Inzi or Loslote. Not Aganzir.



I say probably between: Wilwa, Green, Sally, Kath, Pitch, Nerwen and Form.

Don’t think it’s Form. Don’t think it’s Kath.

Inclined to think that Wilwa is guilty.

[Inziladun]

1. Voting this early in the day is never a good thing, and smacks of nasty cobblerism. Which doesn't surprise me, considering. :rolleyes:

Vote for me, then!

2. So what's your explanation for EW's flat dropping of Eomer as a suspect overNight, then?

Maybe it was something you said....:rolleyes:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It doesn't get much clearer than this. He flat out accused Shasta of being a wolf.

And another thing. He didn't, actually. According to what EW said in his post, he voted me for the following two reasons -

1. "I think he tried to frame Nog as the BW"

and

2. "This statement sticks in my craw" (re: my statement about Lottie which was quite obviously banter).

Both contrived, since reason 1 was discussed yesterDay and the question raised was "why would a Shastawolf go to all that trouble to frame Nog just to kill him?" :rolleyes:

Someone's twisting words, and it's not me. :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nice try Shasta, but if EW made such a strong accusation against you, as the Seer, based on zero evidence then, well, we'd all just hunt him down in RL and burn him at the stake. And I don't believe, in all this time on the Downs, that we've ever noticed a death wish in EW.

I'm afraid you're toast. :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Vote for me, then!



Maybe it was something you said....:rolleyes:

What does this even mean?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Nice try Shasta, but if EW made such a strong accusation against you, as the Seer, based on zero evidence then, well, we'd all just hunt him down in RL and burn him at the stake. And I don't believe, in all this time on the Downs, that we've ever noticed a death wish in EW.

I'm afraid you're toast. :p

The reasons he gave for voting me are just as contrived as the reasons he gave for voting you Day 2. Just saying.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

2. So what's your explanation for EW's flat dropping of Eomer as a suspect overNight, then?

He had dreamed of two innocents; he needed to vote for someone, so chose me; he then decided not to dream about me and instead chose you. His suspicion of me probably wasn't that high, or perhaps it was so high he knew I'd get lynched anyway. :p

[Inziladun]

What does this even mean?

That he abandoned anyone he might have planned to dream Night 3 in favor of you.

Like I said Shasta, this is just the icing on the cake. The way you and Pitch went about attacking me already had me suspicious.

Let everyone choose what they want to do. If people think I'm evil, fine. I'm not. I have nothing to lose here.

x/d with Eomer

[Shastanis Althreduin]

He had dreamed of two innocents; he needed to vote for someone, so chose me; he then decided not to dream about me and instead chose you. His suspicion of me probably wasn't that high, or perhaps it was so high he knew I'd get lynched anyway. :p

That doesn't make any sense. Given EW's obvious (in hindsight) pattern of dream-telegraphing (I mean, everyone so far has basically agreed that he dreamt Volo Night 2), there's no reason for him not to have dreamt you Night 3. You forget I've played several games with EW - there's something wrong if he's not calling for my blood by Day 3. :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That he abandoned anyone he might have planned to dream Night 3 in favor of you.

Like I said Shasta, this is just the icing on the cake. The way you and Pitch went about attacking me already had me suspicious.

Let everyone choose what they want to do. If people think I'm evil, fine. I'm not. I have nothing to lose here.

x/d with Eomer

Nasty Shasta coming to the fore for a moment -

Inzil, I don't think you could be any more annoying if you tried. I mean, 'icing on the cake'? Really? I find this comment egregiously offensive. Contrary to what you may think, the game doesn't revolve entirely around you. :)

Now that that's out of my system, back to your regularly scheduled program.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The reasons he gave for voting me are just as contrived as the reasons he gave for voting you Day 2. Just saying.

Dude, if he was straining to get some reasons for his vote then he would not have implicated you so forcefully. His post is clear as day; the seer would not do that.

I hope EW did dream about Loslote. He mentioned people by name so rarely. Surely he knew his responsibilities to the village? I found Loslote's immediate attack on EW (after his vote for Shasta) a wee bitty suspicious; but I suppose an innocent could easily mistake EW's seerish discovery for evil inconsistency.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Dude, if he was straining to get some reasons for his vote then he would not have implicated you so forcefully. His post is clear as day; the seer would not do that.

I hope EW did dream about Loslote. He mentioned people by name so rarely. Surely he knew his responsibilities to the village? I found Loslote's immediate attack on EW (after his vote for Shasta) a wee bitty suspicious; but I suppose an innocent could easily mistake EW's seerish discovery for evil inconsistency.

Dude, EW does it all the time. Would you like me to go dig up examples? Because I will.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That doesn't make any sense. Given EW's obvious (in hindsight) pattern of dream-telegraphing (I mean, everyone so far has basically agreed that he dreamt Volo Night 2), there's no reason for him not to have dreamt you Night 3.

My dear Shasta: it makes perfect sense, and the reason for not dreaming about me is that there are almost a dozen people he can dream of. I know it's tempting to see patterns, but first: one example (that of Volo) does not a pattern make; and second: patterns can change anytime anyway.

You could shoehorn your theory in there, but that would ignore the fact that the Seer screamed your guilt from the rooftop.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Dude, EW does it all the time. Would you like me to go dig up examples? Because I will.

Would it be cruel of me to request that you do this? :p

I'm off to bed.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My dear Shasta: it makes perfect sense, and the reason for not dreaming about me is that there are almost a dozen people he can dream of. I know it's tempting to see patterns, but first: one example (that of Volo) does not a pattern make; and second: patterns can change anytime anyway.

You could shoehorn your theory in there, but that would ignore the fact that the Seer screamed your guilt from the rooftop.

I believe you're the one shoehorning. Or do you expect us to believe that he voted you just for kicks and giggles? :rolleyes:

[Nerwen]

I believe you're the one shoehorning. Or do you expect us to believe that he voted you just for kicks and giggles?

He went out of his way to make it clear that he did not know Eomer's role:

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad.
In your case, my jewel, not so much:

++Shasta

I think he tried to frame Nogrod as the BW. Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

This statement sticks in my craw,
That is not what Lottie had been advocating and I think you know it. One way or another, you're goin' down boy.

One last thing, I'm a he. This is the Elf-warrior, signing off. Death to lycanthropes!!
Rather a startling change of tone.


And another thing. He didn't, actually. According to what EW said in his post, he voted me for the following two reasons -

1. "I think he tried to frame Nog as the BW"

and

2. "This statement sticks in my craw" (re: my statement about Lottie which was quite obviously banter).

Both contrived, since reason 1 was discussed yesterDay and the question raised was "why would a Shastawolf go to all that trouble to frame Nog just to kill him?" :rolleyes:

Someone's twisting words, and it's not me. :p
I quite agree. But, my dearest, when THE SEER has to come up with contrived reasons for voting someone, it tends to mean that his real reason is something else. SO that's not exactly a point in your favour.

[Nerwen]

I bloody well hope Shasta's a wolf, anyway, because I don't see how we can't lynch him now.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

He went out of his way to make it clear that he did not know Eomer's role:


In your case, my jewel, not so much:


Rather a startling change of tone.



I quite agree. But, my dearest, when THE SEER has to come up with contrived reasons for voting someone, it tends to mean that his real reason is something else. SO that's not exactly a point in your favour.

Except, darling one, EW also came up with contrived reasons for voting both Volo and Eomer (especially in Volo's case) and I think we're all in agreement that he voted Volo and then dreamt him.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

He went out of his way to make it clear that he did not know Eomer's role:

The quote you refer to, shining sapphire, was made before (I believe) EW dreamt Eomer, which points to a clear pattern.

[Loslote]

If I had to guess, I'd go with the
1. Me
2. Volo
3. Shasta

...but I don't know why he'd dream me. *shrugs*

Sorry, Shasta, but there's really no other conclusion I can come to. His vote for Eomer does not look like a Seer dream. His vote for you, did. He even said explicitly that you were a wolf:

I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

And he gave his reason for dreaming you. You said something that jumped out to him. If we go with the theory that he'd dreamt of me, then you mentioning his known innocent would have drawn his eye, and it "stuck in his craw". It doesn't get much clearer than this.

++Shasta

[Inziladun]

The quote you refer to, shining sapphire, was made before (I believe) EW dreamt Eomer, which points to a clear pattern.

The "pattern", was that TEW voted two people without saying they were definitely evil (and one of them was later revealed to be innocent). That pattern was broken with you.

x/d with Lottie

[satansaloser2005]

I'm here, and I have popcorn. Anyone want a bite? :rolleyes:

[Inziladun]

I'm here, and I have popcorn. Anyone want a bite? :rolleyes:

Just had chili, but thanks anyway. ;)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The "pattern", was that TEW voted two people without saying they were definitely evil (and one of them was later revealed to be innocent). That pattern was broken with you.

x/d with Lottie

Um, no, the pattern is that EW voted people before dreaming them, as I've said... thrice, now. I still see no plausible reason for his Eomer-vote except for the one I've brought up myself - in fact, no one's even bothering to think about it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

If I had to guess, I'd go with the
1. Me
2. Volo
3. Shasta

...but I don't know why he'd dream me. *shrugs*

Sorry, Shasta, but there's really no other conclusion I can come to. His vote for Eomer does not look like a Seer dream. His vote for you, did. He even said explicitly that you were a wolf:



And he gave his reason for dreaming you. You said something that jumped out to him. If we go with the theory that he'd dreamt of me, then you mentioning his known innocent would have drawn his eye, and it "stuck in his craw". It doesn't get much clearer than this.

++Shasta

Precisely. He voted Eomer before dreaming him - I really don't see any other reason for completely dropping him the next day (other than that I'm a wolf, but I happen to know I'm not, so...) And 'accusations' have been made in that manner before and haven't been true, so latching onto this one makes no sense.

[satansaloser2005]

++Agan

I don't plan on voting any differently until she's dead, so why wait?


Besides, I'm going to get sick of all this Shasta discussion fairly quickly. If we're going to lynch him, let's lynch him, but stop dwelling on it. If he's a wolf, he's not the only wolf, and if he's not a wolf, then there are other wolves to catch. (If he's the BW, of course, we need to kill him, but if we use that EW quote as evidence then Shasta being the BW is highly unlikely.)

Dinner time. Back soon. Behave while I'm gone, k? :)

[satansaloser2005]

Clarification: I'm totally okay with testing this Shasta theory, but I don't want us to get too single-minded. Besides, Agan's totally evil. Can we kill both of them? ;)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Clarification: I'm totally okay with testing this Shasta theory, but I don't want us to get too single-minded. Besides, Agan's totally evil. Can we kill both of them? ;)

Love you too, babe.

[Loslote]

Um, no, the pattern is that EW voted people before dreaming them, as I've said... thrice, now. I still see no plausible reason for his Eomer-vote except for the one I've brought up myself - in fact, no one's even bothering to think about it.

So you think he voted people just to show who he dreamed? I think it's more likely that he voted the people he suspected. Eomer was so universally suspected, he wasn't really worth the dream. You weren't even close to being universally suspected. Even if he suspected you already, you weren't going to be lynched. Eomer might have been, which makes Eomer the better choice to vote and you the better choice to dream.

EDIT: xed with Sally and Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So you think he voted people just to show who he dreamed? I think it's more likely that he voted the people he suspected. Eomer was so universally suspected, he wasn't really worth the dream. You weren't even close to being universally suspected. Even if he suspected you already, you weren't going to be lynched. Eomer might have been, which makes Eomer the better choice to vote and you the better choice to dream.

No, I think he voted people to show who he was going to dream. You can say Eomer wasn't worth the dream, but that's entirely your opinion.

[Inziladun]

So you think he voted people just to show who he dreamed? I think it's more likely that he voted the people he suspected.

No, I don't really see why a Seer would indicate he'd dreamed an innocent by not only voting for them, but in Shasta's case outright calling them a wolf.

x/d with Shasta: So a Seer would think it logical to show who he intended to dream by voting for them? And if he looked over the thread during the Night and changed his mind, what then?

[Loslote]

No, I think he voted people to show who he was going to dream. You can say Eomer wasn't worth the dream, but that's entirely your opinion.

I think that's awfully complicated, and not necessarily likely for people to catch on about. Yeah, you did (assuming this scenario is correct) but how many people would have noticed that? It might be that, or it might be a coincidence. Like someone said (Pitchie or Zil, maybe?), we only "know" (and I'm using know in the most non-certain way here) that's what happened with Volo. It's not a pattern; it's a guess.

Also, I know I've xed.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

No, I don't really see why a Seer would indicate he'd dreamed an innocent by not only voting for them, but in Shasta's case outright calling them a wolf.

x/d with Shasta: So a Seer would think it logical to show who he intended to dream by voting for them? And if he looked over the thread during the Night and changed his mind, what then?

Twisting again. Did I, ever, say 'that's what a Seer would do'? No. That's what I think EW did, and obviously that's the theory I advocate, since the other is obviously wrong (from my point of view). If you could stop twisting everything I say to suit your cobblerish desire to have me lynched, I'd appreciate it.

[Nerwen]

Um, no, the pattern is that EW voted people before dreaming them, as I've said... thrice, now.
Twice that the rest of us know of– and I don't know why a Seer would feel the need to follow such a strict modus operandi on a relatively minor point, yet break the golden rule of "never directly accuse someone you haven't dreamed".

And 'accusations' have been made in that manner before and haven't been true, so latching onto this one makes no sense.

You're the Seer, you haven't dreamed any villains– how do you vote? In a non-committal way, preferably hinting that you don't actually know anything: "Well, I'll have to go with A", "B is certainly acting funny, though I could be wrong".

You're the Seer, you've dreamed a wolf– how do you vote? Well, unless you're revealing, you don't actually say, "I dreamed C and he's a wolf"– but you come as close to it as you dare. "Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night" is about as explicit as it gets, particularly when followed by "you're going down, boy," and "death to lycanthropes".

Of course, it is true that EW is inexperienced, and might not have taken into consideration how things would look after he died. All I can say, my flawless diamond, is that in that case we're going to need to add a "Tips for Newbie Seers" section to the Guidelines thread.:rolleyes:

EDIT:X'd since Shasta at #372.

[Inziladun]

Clarification: I'm totally okay with testing this Shasta theory, but I don't want us to get too single-minded. Besides, Agan's totally evil. Can we kill both of them? ;)

There's only two ways you could know Agan is evil: you're a wolf who knows she's the BW because you tried to kill her; or you're Ferny who knows she's a wolf because you guessed her.

Which is it? :p

x/d with all since my last

[satansaloser2005]

There's only two ways you could know Agan is evil: you're a wolf who knows she's the BW because you tried to kill her; or you're Ferny who knows she's a wolf because you guessed her.

Which is it? :p

x/d with all since my last

Neither of the above. I've said she's a wolf more likely than the BW, which rules out your first thought, and if I was Ferny, wouldn't I be protecting her?

Sense, you make none. Please try again. ;)

[Inziladun]

Neither of the above. I've said she's a wolf more likely than the BW, which rules out your first thought, and if I was Ferny, wouldn't I be protecting her?

Sense, you make none. Please try again. ;)

Merely being flippant, Popcorn Princess. ;)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Neither of the above. I've said she's a wolf more likely than the BW, which rules out your first thought, and if I was Ferny, wouldn't I be protecting her?

Sense, you make none. Please try again. ;)

At least someone agrees with me!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Twice that the rest of us know of– and I don't know why a Seer would feel the need to follow such a strict modus operandi on a relatively minor point, yet break the golden rule of "never directly accuse someone you haven't dreamed".



You're the Seer, you haven't dreamed any villains– how do you vote? In a non-committal way, preferably hinting that you don't actually know anything: "Well, I'll have to go with A", "B is certainly acting funny, though I could be wrong".

You're the Seer, you've dreamed a wolf– how do you vote? Well, unless you're revealing, you don't actually say, "I dreamed C and he's a wolf"– but you come as close to it as you dare. "Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night" is about as explicit as it gets, particularly when followed by "you're going down, boy," and "death to lycanthropes".

Of course, it is true that EW is inexperienced, and might not have taken into consideration how things would look after he died. All I can say, my flawless diamond, is that in that case we're going to need to add a "Tips for Newbie Seers" section to the Guidelines thread.:rolleyes:

EDIT:X'd since Shasta at #372.

Looked like flippancy to me. EW said this about Eomer -
I'd bet he's bad.
- does this, by implication, mean Eomer's a wolf?

Answer - no. I don't see why situation A apparently gives results B and C just because of a slight change in unrelated variable D.

[wilwarin538]

Longest day ever, I'm so exhausted...

So I can just pop on quickly now for a few comments before I fall asleep for a good 8 hours. I don't think I'll be able to come on that often tomorrow because of work and school, but I'll try my hardest.

I agree with the Shasta thing, I mean I get what he's saying about EW's little pattern, and if he is innocent then that would be a very annoying situation for him, but it's a bad idea to ignore the Seer who clearly felt very strongly about Shasta's guilt. So it's definitely the most logical choice.

And remember back on day 1 and Agan had that idea that whoever gets stunned should come forward the next Day, but then I said that the BW could just say it was him if the Night kill was the stun choice, and so the plan went out the window? Well since we all know I'm not the BW, and since there was no Night kill anyways you can trust this: I got stunned last Night, so that, along with any hints over who may have been a Night 2 kill choice, could help us narrow down who the BW is.

Now I need to sleep....so badly....I'll try to show up as much as I can later.

x'ed with Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

if he is innocent then that would be a very annoying situation for him

Yeah, almost as annoying as a Day 1 lynch as the Seer for clarifying a rule for someone.

[Inziladun]

Of course, it is true that EW is inexperienced, and might not have taken into consideration how things would look after he died. All I can say, my flawless diamond, is that in that case we're going to need to add a "Tips for Newbie Seers" section to the Guidelines thread.:rolleyes:

There's always a chance TEW was an inexperienced Seer who unintentionally misled us, sure. But I see no other logical way to interpret what we've been left with than Shasta is a wolf.

x/d with Wilwa and Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

There's always a chance TEW was an inexperienced Seer who unintentionally misled us, sure. But I see no other logical way to interpret what we've been left with than Shasta is a wolf.

x/d with Wilwa and Shasta


No one has said why my theory is illogical. I think it's just that you've already closed off to anything I have to say. Maybe if I have Nerwen copy-paste everything I say...?

[Nerwen]

Looked like flippancy to me. EW said this about Eomer -
Originally Posted by EW
I'd bet he's bad.
- does this, by implication, mean Eomer's a wolf?

- does this, by implication, mean Eomer's a wolf?

Answer - no. I don't see why situation A apparently gives results B and C just because of a slight change in unrelated variable D.
Actually, it might have been a subtle accusation– if that's all EW had said in his vote-post. But in fact he had had just taken pains to make it clear that he did not have any special knowledge of Eomer's role.

Here's the rest of it:
Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta at #386.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Actually, it might have been a subtle accusation– if that's all EW had said in his vote-post. But in fact he had had just taken pains to make it clear that he did not have any special knowledge of Eomer's role.

Here's the rest of it:

And that's why I think he dreamt Eomer on last night - otherwise he'd still have been on him yesterDay! He didn't mention Eomer at all, which to me says only one thing - he found him innocent another way. There's no other reason for EW to have dropped Eomer as a suspect so totally and completely.

[Nerwen]

No one has said why my theory is illogical. I think it's just that you've already closed off to anything I have to say.
No, your theory isn't illogical. It's just that the alternative makes more sense.

EDIT:X'd with Shasta.

[Nerwen]

And that's why I think he dreamt Eomer on last night - otherwise he'd still have been on him yesterDay! He didn't mention Eomer at all, which to me says only one thing - he found him innocent another way. There's no other reason for EW to have dropped Eomer as a suspect so totally and completely.
Unless he'd dreamt you, of course. I mean, he only made one post yesterDay anyway– he just turned up, voted and disappeared. The previous Day he specially mentioned that he no longer suspected Volo–
I'm gonna flip flop some more and say that Volo seems OK to me after further consideration.
But yesterDay EW didn't bother to clear Eomer. I wouldn't say he "totally and completely" dropped him as a suspect– rather, we just don't know what he thought about anyone except you and Lottie yesterDay.

My radiant star, wouldn't this game-plan that you ascribe to our late Seer, of always voting for the person he planned to dream that Night, require him to give some hint of the result next Day? Wouldn't that be the point of it?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Unless he'd dreamt you, of course. I mean, he only made one post yesterDay anyway– he just turned up, voted and disappeared. The previous Day he specially mentioned that he no longer suspected Volo–

But yesterDay EW didn't bother to clear Eomer. I wouldn't say he "totally and completely" dropped him as a suspect– rather, we just don't know what he thought about anyone except you and Lottie yesterDay.

My radiant star, wouldn't this game-plan that you ascribe to our late Seer, of always voting for the person he planned to dream that Night, require him to give some hint of the result next Day? Wouldn't that be the point of it?

It would indeed, light of the east, if one planned to make more than one post per day. I think it was pretty obvious that EW was pressed for time, no?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sally practically ignores the whole Shasta thing and just votes for Aganzir, even this early. Would a wolfy Sally be so obviously wolfy?

[wilwarin538]

Yeah, almost as annoying as a Day 1 lynch as the Seer for clarifying a rule for someone.

Hmm, and about that same game, after we did lynch you, we went after Pitch because you had expressed so much suspicion for him, so we assumed he must have been your dream. But he hadn't been, he was innocent. So yeah, it's very possible that he never dreamt you, but since he dreamt only innocents he needed someone to suspect, so in his busy rush he picked you. BUT, he went after you really hard, it wasn't just a "I think he might be guilty, but maybe not" thing like when he voted Eomer, it was a "die wolfie die" thing.

[satansaloser2005]

Sally practically ignores the whole Shasta thing and just votes for Aganzir, even this early. Would a wolfy Sally be so obviously wolfy?

A cranky Sally is cranky that everyone is letting the evil one live. Besides, you've proven my point. The only discussion toDay is going to be about Shasta, which is letting the other wolves (or all the wolves, if he isn't one, and don't even get me started on the BW) get another Day free and clear. I'm not happy about that.

Also, for what it's worth, I know I've had major hunches as seer before, and acted on them because I didn't have anything else to go on at the time. Perhaps EW did the same thing; he may have cleared only innocents, or most of his dreams could have been dead. I'm not saying it's the case, but I've seen other seers go 'WOLF, DIE, I KEEL YOU' and it's just a major hunch because they've eliminated other suspects and thus see the person they're voting for as an obvious choice. Of course, it's a bit early in the game for that type of strategy, so either way is possible, but it's something to consider.

Also also, if Shasta does turn up innocent, we know who else we need to look at. I'm not saying that following possible seer hints is a bad idea, but when that's all people will talk about, without allowing for doubt or other suspicion, it makes me think that they either feel threatened or that they're preparing to sacrifice and innocent. Just something to consider should Shasta be good in the end, as I do so love to prepare for every possibility.


Also also....also, apologies. I fell asleep last night and now I need to get off to work. I may be around when/if I go somewhere for lunch, but other than that I won't be back until right before the deadline. Please have more discussion while I'm gone, and please don't make it all about Shasta. Thanks. :)


P.S. I just woke up, so I'm sorry if this is rambly and a bit nonsensical. :/

x'd with Muffin

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sally,

Day had been going only a couple of hours and Shasta had been arguing pretty forcefully. Why shouldn't we concentrate on sorting that out?

Also, why are you so sure Aganzir is guilty? Why vote so early? You're behaving pretty strangely.

[satansaloser2005]

Sally,

Day had been going only a couple of hours and Shasta had been arguing pretty forcefully. Why shouldn't we concentrate on sorting that out?

Also, why are you so sure Aganzir is guilty? Why vote so early? You're behaving pretty strangely.

The Day's over halfway over, and no one has discussed anything else. Again, try again. If he's a wolf, lynch him and move on. Otherwise he can just argue all Day and you'll ignore everyone else in the village.

Because she is. It's her attitude, the way she's going after me for suspecting her (which she has consistently done when she's guilty, whereas when she's innocent she sort of agrees to disagree), and the way that no one else is paying her any mind. And I'm not entirely sure I'll be back (I may work late, etc.), so I don't want to wait to vote when I already know who I'll be voting for.

I'm behaving strangely? I'm behaving rationally. You're refusing to see anything but the evidence the seer has HANDED you. Use your brain. Accuse someone else toDay, rather than just blindly following the seer's (possible) dreams. That's all I ask.


And I'm now severely late for work. Crap. Best be off. :/

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You were worried about it becoming a Shasta-show after around 3 hours of the new day. What's happened since then has nothing to do with how odd your comments were then.

I say you're behaving strangely; you say you're behaving rationally. The two are not mutually exclusive: of course it's perfectly rational to vote for your top suspect. But to do it in light of an interesting developing situation (the Shasta debate) so early on is a bit strange.

And I'm not refusing anything. I dealt with the issue that's number one on my priority list; now I've already moved on to my next suspect (which you should probably have noticed by now :p )

[Inziladun]

Hmm, and about that same game, after we did lynch you, we went after Pitch because you had expressed so much suspicion for him, so we assumed he must have been your dream. But he hadn't been, he was innocent. So yeah, it's very possible that he never dreamt you, but since he dreamt only innocents he needed someone to suspect, so in his busy rush he picked you. BUT, he went after you really hard, it wasn't just a "I think he might be guilty, but maybe not" thing like when he voted Eomer, it was a "die wolfie die" thing.

Exactly. This isn't an instance of a Seer voting for someone and saying "I think xe's evil". I don't see why TEW would have been so specific if he hadn't dreamed Shasta. If he only had suspicions on Shasta, why not couch them in terms as he did with Eomer?

Also also, if Shasta does turn up innocent, we know who else we need to look at. I'm not saying that following possible seer hints is a bad idea, but when that's all people will talk about, without allowing for doubt or other suspicion, it makes me think that they either feel threatened or that they're preparing to sacrifice and innocent. Just something to consider should Shasta be good in the end, as I do so love to prepare for every possibility.

If Shasta turns up innocent, the ones to immediately consider perhaps should be Lottie, Eomer, and me, as the ones who pushed for Shasta's lynch toDay.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

#110 - suspects Inziladun, Aganzir and Pitch. His fight with Inzi then became well-documented.

#133 - more suspicion on Agan and Pitch, and also some on Wilwa & Green.

#182 - argues with Wilwa

#184 - steps back somewhat from his suspicion of Agan/Green/Wilwa/Pitch

#216 - flirts with Kath, then gets exasperated by her.


----------


Ok, less likely to suspect the worst in Wilwa and Pitch now.

Kath and Green I am more concerned about. Kath, Green, Form, Sally & Nerwen - a double dose o' wolvery in that lot, I'll wager!

[Aganzir]

First off, don't expect much participation from me today, at least compared to the previous days - I'm dead tired (painting seemed like such a good idea last night) and I have some schoolwork to take care of.

I'm not going to take part in the Shasta debate because it would just give me a headache and at least to me EW's vote for Shasta is a sufficient reason to lynch him.

Well since we all know I'm not the BW, and since there was no Night kill anyways you can trust this: I got stunned last Night, so that, along with any hints over who may have been a Night 2 kill choice, could help us narrow down who the BW is.
I know there's no way you can be sure I'm telling the truth, but it was me the night before. Hence my comment about the BW possibly being on my suspect list - I'd guess she tries to stun people who might, if the seer, cause problems to her. I admit that's not a waterproof theory and it also depends on who the BW is, but to me it would make the most sense.

Sally practically ignores the whole Shasta thing and just votes for Aganzir, even this early. Would a wolfy Sally be so obviously wolfy?
I don't think that's "obviously wolfy". It's pretty certain Shasta is going down so voting for someone else doesn't really count as an attempt to save him.

Because she is. It's her attitude, the way she's going after me for suspecting her (which she has consistently done when she's guilty, whereas when she's innocent she sort of agrees to disagree), and the way that no one else is paying her any mind.
That's ridiculous. I started to suspect you because your suspicion of me is crappy - no offense but if it's actually genuine, I'll cut my nails or something. Here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=641735&postcount=69)'s the post sally first talked about me, go and see for yourselves (and it's only gotten worse after that). And please elaborate what you mean by "agrees to disagree" because I have no idea.

Next I'm going to do a sally analysis (although the more accurate term would probably be "a case against sally") because she arouses way more feelings in me than Shasta.

[wilwarin538]

I know there's no way you can be sure I'm telling the truth, but it was me the night before. Hence my comment about the BW possibly being on my suspect list - I'd guess she tries to stun people who might, if the seer, cause problems to her. I admit that's not a waterproof theory and it also depends on who the BW is, but to me it would make the most sense.


Since the Seer is gone, now the only people that the stun thing would harm is Tom, Ferny and the Wolves (though for the wolves it only stops one from communicating with the others, they still get a kill as long as there's more then 1). So really the BW is trying to hit Tom, because he doesn't want him to be able to kill him. Ferny I don't think is much of a threat, he only finds out whether someone is a wolf or not, but maybe BW doesn't want him to find all the wolves since that is helpful to the wolves (who he wants dead).

So, likely the BW is someone who thought I'd be a threat if I was Tom, and therefore he must be someone I suspect in some way, right? But that's a lot of assumptions, but it's still something.

Gotta go back to class, and my laptop is dying. I'll try to come back on in a bit to vote.

[Aganzir]

Sally was fairly inactive the first two days. I was her only suspect (that she mentioned, at least) on day 1, but she didn't bring up points of her own against me but rather repeated what others had said before. She voted for me because my BW plan (she didn't specify which) "could be evil," her reasoning going that I wouldn't think so far ahead as an ordo and would try to keep my head down as a gifted, thus leaving me as evil. Of course she's entitled to speculate on how I'd behave, but she makes it seem way too simple and straightforward.
And as I've said before, I think there's something off with this quote. It looks like she doesn't care about anything, but I'm used to innocents being wary of day 1 bandwagons.
EDIT: x'd since Agan's last, and thus with Volo's vote. Seems like there'll be a wagon banding together. Hope it's a good one!

On to day 3. Sally doesn't think the wolves killed Nog for finding him seerish. I don't know how sally usually chooses her kills, but I'd say most wolves are alarmed by a player who seems certain someone is the cobbler. Also, in hindsight Nog probably wanted the wolves to believe he was the seer and attack him, so I don't see where sally is coming from (unless she's afraid she'd be connected to Nog's death if it was agreed he was considered the seer because he suspected her).

Interestingly enough, sally finds it BAD STUFF that the wolves targeted the BW - even though it means they missed one kill & the seer got one more dream. According to her, it's worse that the wolves know who the BW is so they won't attack her later on in the game (and might hit a gifted instead) and have to lynch her now. Saying the wolves will try to lynch the BW and are probably going heavily after her looks twisted, somehow. It looks as if a wolfish sally is looking at the people who are suspicious of the BW, rubbing her hands and grinning. Because as I said before, it'd be risky for the wolves to try to lynch the BW when all they need to do is leave her for Tom so there will be no tracks that lead back to them when Tom gets her. I questioned her about it before, and here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=642199&postcount=319) is her reply which I don't bother to paraphrase here because it's wishy-washy and there isn't anything new there.

She's still suspicious of me, finding me "at the very least a cobbler." She still hasn't given any proper reasons for it, only saying it's so terribly obvious to her that I'm evil - and when I try to question her, she downplays it with "Oh you're just mad I caught you!" Well guess what? I am annoyed. Not because you suspect me but because your attitude towards me is belittling and really damn irritating. I'm currently wondering if sally is Ferny who has spied on me and now tries to get me lynched. (That would also explain why she didn't think Nog looked seerish - she knew he couldn't have dreamed me a cobbler.)

She lists me, Eomer & EW as guilty; Form & Nerwen as innocent; and doesn't know about Greenie, Zil, Kath, Lottie, Pitch, Shasta (could be the cobbler or the BW, but not a wolf) and wilwa. Note that she talks a lot about everyone but doesn't reach conclusions, it's more like "could be x but I'm not going to write off the possibility of y, etc." I think this looks quite cobblerish too - granted, she couldn't have spied on everyone she says are guilty/innocent, but her unknown list is far too long to my liking.

She votes for me, saying she also has legitimate reasons for suspecting me that should be enough to expose me as a baddie. I wonder if she was going to do a fake reveal as the seer - an idea thwarted by EW's death. Also this quote where she gives her interpretation for why I found her suspicious speaks for it:
Only because you know I'm right and thus you need me dead. Mind you, I completely understand what you're doing, and I'd probably do the same thing, but it's not going to work. Sorry, muffin. And actually, I wish you weren't evil, because then I wouldn't have to kill you.

Today she votes for me instead of the basically certain wolf Shasta. As I said, it doesn't look so much like an attempt to save him (because I doubt it's possible), but it would be a good way for the cobbler to signal to the wolves: "Hey guys, I'm voting for someone else, see!"

However, she also says we shouldn't only talk about Shasta today. I kind of agree with this, but I don't know what she's trying to get at by suggesting it... Is she hoping we find someone else to lynch than Shasta? She's also semi-defending Shasta, saying seers sometimes have major hunches that look like they had in fact dreamed someone.

And I see she still hasn't told us her legitimate points against me.

I'd strongly consider lynching sally tomorrow.

[Aganzir]

Agan Day 2 (unknown) suspects: sally, Nerwen. Later I also added that something (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=641915#post641915) Eomer said would be convenient if he was the BW, and I considered voting for sally or Eomer.

Wilwa Day 3 "could lynch" (given their scarce posting): Eomer, Form, Kath, sally. She suspected the first three already on day 2.

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if it's Eomer.

[wilwarin538]

Laptop died and I can't use the school computers for the Downs so I'm doing this on my iPod touch and it's really hard. Going to keep it brief.

So I think it is clear that Shasta will be lynched, and it would suck if he turned up innocent but we shouldn't ignore the Seer.

++Shasta

don't think I'll be able to come back again today, sorry I wasn't very helpful. Good luck!

Edit: x'ed with Agan (ya it could very well be him)

[satansaloser2005]

You were worried about it becoming a Shasta-show after around 3 hours of the new day. What's happened since then has nothing to do with how odd your comments were then.

No, I actually predicted the direction of discussion, and said that I didn't like where it was headed. Now I don't like where it's gone. Big difference.

However, I'm happy to see that other people are being considered (even if one of them is me). Thanks very much for broadening your horizons a bit. :)


And Agan's still just cranky. I showed up for like ten minutes on the first Day and did the best I could in the time I had, and have been very consistent since then. She's cross that I've caught her, even though I've said she's playing a very good game; I just have seen her tell and know that she's most likely evil, and thus am not going to back down on the subject. And by "agree to disagree" I mean that as an innocent you usually shrug off my suspicions, rather than jump right back at me and insist I must be evil for suspecting you.


This is likely all from me until right before DL, if I'm able to return at all. We'll see.

[satansaloser2005]

Agan Day 2 (unknown) suspects: sally, Nerwen. Later I also added that something (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=641915#post641915) Eomer said would be convenient if he was the BW, and I considered voting for sally or Eomer.

Wilwa Day 3 "could lynch" (given their scarce posting): Eomer, Form, Kath, sally. She suspected the first three already on day 2.

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if it's Eomer.

I think that a wolf!Eomer may be more vocal, wanting to help out his pack and whatever, but perhaps he could be the BW? Alternatively, he could be our other cobbler. Still, he needs to die, because he’s totally up to something, and I don’t think it’s a good something.

Finally we agree on something?

[satansaloser2005]

Also, all this circus aside, I have to say, my frozen goodness, I don't think your idea of "EW votes for someone, then dreams them" is a very valid one. It could happen, but I don't think it's the case here. It leaves too much room for things like this to happen, and it would be a big risk, especially if he voted for the ranger and then dreamed his role, only to be killed that Night and have the village go after their only remaining gifted (which obviously didn't happen here, but that's not the point).

tl;dr. Possible!theory is possible, but probably not the case here. Sorry, love.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, I'm done. I need to get back to work, and I won't be back until about ten minutes before the DL (if that long), so if you have anything you want me to answer when I return please mark it with a little Merisu face or something so I see it. Thanks!

*dashes off to RL land*

[A Little Green]

I'm having a busy day (again :rolleyes: ) but I'll do my best, I have a little moment now and another before Deadline.

Re: Shasta. Well, it's as Wilwa said: it absolutely sucks if he's innocent, but I don't think we can ignore this clear a lead from our Seer. I'll be voting him toDay unless something even more drastic than this turns up. Sally is right, though, we shouldn't spend all Day talking about Shasta when there are two other wolves at large - three if EW didn't dream Shasta after all.

Sally herself is making a spectacular show of not making sense in the least. She suspects Agan, I get that much, but her insistence upon it compared to the weight of her arguments is plain crazy. And not in the silly Sally way, either. Her continuous rebukes to the village for not having lynched Agan yet despite her, Sally, finding her guilty are more off than I can articulate here. My guess right now would be that Sally is a cobbler, possibly one who has dreamed Agan innocent, as that's pretty much the only sense-making scenario I can think of. But then again, she would have had to think Agan was a possible wolf at some point to dream her, and she has been insistent upon accusing her all through the game, a thing a cobbler wouldn't do to a wolf suspect, so I'm not sure this theory makes sense, either. All I know is that I've never seen an innocent Sally behave like she does now, never, and I have no idea why a wolf, or let alone the BW, would behave in a way so evidently attention-seeking.

I have to dash now, back later.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, it's clear there's no point keeping up this charade any longer. This is why I hate Seers - the moment one has a success, everyone shuts their brains off for a nice nap the rest of the day. Blah, blah, blah.

Anyway, I can tell you why Sally's acting so strangely - she's the Barrow-Wight. Sorry, love, but if you expected me to go down all by my lonesome then you're sadly mistaken.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, to Ferny - you really should pay more attention to the hints that have been fired at you like ICBMs all game long. :rolleyes: It's lucky we know who you are, but do get with the program, won't you?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I suppose there's nothing to do now but up my post count. I guess revealed baddies do have the most fun, although I hate reading my own death scenes. :( You're taking me away from the love of my life, you do realize? Limey cowards.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also I don't think Lottie has ever made a parody for me. I find this extremely disappointing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

A good time for a quintuple-post? I think so. :smokin:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I feel sorry for Boro and Fea, though. The Seer they picked turned out to be well-nigh useless, with that 'one-post-a-day' crap. I'd never have done that.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, Form and Agan should be modkilled. Form because he's currently being silly and useless, and Agan because she dared to ignore me today. Boo hiss.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Tum te tum. Any chance we can lynch Sally instead of me today? And forget the fact that you've got Bombadil? Maybe?

++Sally

[Shastanis Althreduin]

To my fellow wolves - it might be a good idea to take out Bombadil tonight. Make them waste a lynch on Sally tomorrow. For more fun and giggles, I could totally tell Sally who we think it is so she stuns them. Sound fun? Knock once for yes, twice for no. :)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hyper!Shasta is hyper. I just revealed this momentous bit of information and there's no one around to commiserate with? This. Is. Bollocks.

[/rant]

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well this is boring. *mashes refresh button*

Normally I'd fight to the death, but then again, no one bought my well-thought out, plausible theory of the Seer's dreams, preferring instead to vote in favor of demented ramblings. Oh well.

[Pitchwife]

Shasta, if you're innocent, I feel your pain, and we can ask TEWie What Twisted Folly he was up to when the game's over, but you'd also know we have hardly another choice, hard as it is on you. If you're a wolf, you've put up a repworthy fight.
Nobody expects you to self-vote, and if we find you innocent, we'll be happy to follow your suspicions toMorrow. But for toDay,

++Shasta

And now on to other matters.

EDIT: Oops, x-ed with a bunch of Shastas. OK then...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The best part of this game has been the fact that the village has lynched both their ranger and their seer with virtually no help from the wolves. It's been awesome.

[Loslote]

Also I don't think Lottie has ever made a parody for me. I find this extremely disappointing.

But I have! Ages ago! ...I'll redo it, though. :p

Shasta Daisy

Shasta Daisy, please oh please oh won't you not, kill me
Been an awful good girl
Shasta Daisy, so hurry to the gallows tonight

Shasta Daisy, you could maybe freeze to death too,
I'll wait up for your death
Shasta Daisy, so hurry to the gallows tonight

Think of all the fun I've missed
Think of all the fellas that I haven't killed
Next Day I could be just as good
If you'd not kill me overNight
Boo doo bee doo

Shasta Daisy, I wanna lynch and really that's
Not so bad
Been an angel all year
Shasta Daisy, so hurry to the gallows tonight

Shasta 'Cle, one thing I really do need, the names
Of your packmates, oh please
Shasta Daisy, so hurry to the gallows tonight

Shasta Wolfie, I am so thankful for Sally's name, and more
For your imminent death
Shasta Daisy, and hurry to the gallows tonight

Come and give me evil names
With the special knowledge bought with innocent blood
I really do believe in you
Let's see if you believe in me
Boo doo bee doo

Shasta Daisy, forgot to mention one little thing, a vote
I don't mean in real life
Shasta Daisy, so hurry to the gallows tonight
Hurry to the gallows tonight
Hurry ... tonight

(Side note: Not really here yet, but I should be around at DL for once! :D

[Formendacil]

Also, Form and Agan should be modkilled. Form because he's currently being silly and useless, and Agan because she dared to ignore me today. Boo hiss.

You know... reading through toDay's (*cough*andYesterDay's*cough*) posts, I wondered when my name was going to come up. I'm not sure how I should take it that it's Shasta who's bringing it up--no offence, Shasta, love, but you're the premium lynching prospect today. You're in the position of "well, if he's not innocent, we still have to lynch him anyway to be sure, and if he IS innocent, then we shall curse the dead Seer's name."

Therefore, without further ado,

++ Shastanis Althreduin

Consequently, it seems to me that bringing me and Agan up can only be a way to mess up tomorrow's analysis--my guess, since I know I'm innocent and a VERY easy target since I've been so quiet, is that he's shielding Agan by mentioning her in context with me, in the hope that mentioning me with draw more ire in my direction, and that mentioning Agan will deflect attention away from her... and that mentioning us together will just confuse everyone.

It may well work. I daresay it'd be even more confusing if the wolves ate me tonight.

As to the mod-firing charges... my dear, apparently dying, Shasta, you know that one can't be mod-fired for being useless, provided one votes every day (a single absence is permitted--more, if Boromod88 is so disposed). It may be playing with fire to keep a low profile--sure, it can allow you to slip under the radar for a day or two, but it makes you a nice, trackless, kill for the wolves. That's a decision that just has to be made: do you try and stay off people's radar so that you're around and the village has another Innocent voice on Day 6, or whenever you poke your head up? Or do you worry that, having said nothing, no one will believe you're innocent?

In my case, I have--thus far--gone with the laying-low tack. It is a decision, of course, that has been prompted in large part by Real Life circumstances, but it has definitely been a decision. I guess I'm at the point where I ought to be paying for that... and if so, then I hope the Wolves eat me, and spare our remaining Gifted and/or "near-proven" Innocents. That will, in my opinion, have been a productive role to play in the village--but, of course, having said this aloud, it seems unlikely that the wolves would eat me... except, of course, that I'm a traceless kill.

However, I'm not 100% a traceless kill. No one is, by Day 4, if they have a voting record, and have said anything. And I'm saying a bit now: I think the Sally/Agan feud has a villain in it somewhere (maaaaaaybe the Wight, though I incline otherwise), and Shasta's deliberate interferential mention of Agan with me in the post quoted makes me think Agan... and then makes me question myself and think maybe it CAN'T be Agan.

I also totally don't think Eomer is innocent, as I would not put it past the Wolves to have plotted to use this day as a way to turn Shasta's death into Eomer's immunity.

Beyond that... I have no thoughts, and you likely won't hear from me again toDay.

EDIT: X-ed with Lottie and a veritable bevy of Shastas.

[Inziladun]

Well, it's clear there's no point keeping up this charade any longer. This is why I hate Seers - the moment one has a success, everyone shuts their brains off for a nice nap the rest of the day. Blah, blah, blah.

I'm frankly disappointed. I wanted to see what you'd come up with next. :rolleyes:

Anyway, I can tell you why Sally's acting so strangely - she's the Barrow-Wight. Sorry, love, but if you expected me to go down all by my lonesome then you're sadly mistaken.

How lovely if you're telling the truth. It might actually be true, since the BW is as much a threat to wolves as it is to the village.

I feel sorry for Boro and Fea, though. The Seer they picked turned out to be well-nigh useless, with that 'one-post-a-day' crap. I'd never have done that.

Well, if he got us a wolf, I wouldn't exactly call him "useless".

To my fellow wolves - it might be a good idea to take out Bombadil tonight. Make them waste a lynch on Sally tomorrow. For more fun and giggles, I could totally tell Sally who we think it is so she stuns them. Sound fun? Knock once for yes, twice for no. :)

Can Tom be Night-killed before he does his thing? I thought only the BW could stop Tom by stunning him at the beginning of the Night.

x/d with Shasta, Lottie, and Form

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hahahaha. Where'd you get 'daisy' from, though? I'm no wilting flower!

If you'd not kill me overNight

See, now I'm considering this. :p

[Inziladun]

Assuming Shasta is indeed a wolf, the TEW voters from yesterDay should be looked at very closely. TEW's post in which he voted Shasta would have sent up alarm bells, and they knew they couldn't kill him last Night.

[Loslote]

Hahahaha. Where'd you get 'daisy' from, though? I'm no wilting flower!

Aren't you? Aren't you really? :p

See, now I'm considering this. :p

*cowers in fear of the dead guy* :Merisu:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Inzil, Inzil, Inzil. You'd have been dead a long time ago for the sheer annoyance factor, but I thought I could get you lynched. Obviously I overestimated myself, but kicking a man while he's down? Really?

Anyway. Regarding Sally's Wight-ness - I confess I did have a plan at the beginning of lying in order to steer the lynch at a possible gifted, but... thanks to you guys, there are no possible Gifteds to steer the lynch at! :rolleyes: And since we can't kill Sally ourselves (as evidenced by Night 1)...

But see, now I'm considering outing Bombadil so Sally can stun them, letting my packmates kill Bombadil tonight, so that you guys are forced to lynch her tomorrow. :)

Packmates, I expect you to use CobblerCode (tm) to tell me whether you think this is a good idea or not!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Aren't you? Aren't you really? :p



*cowers in fear of the dead guy* :Merisu:

Hey, I have two friends who are more than willing to rip up people on my say so! Who do you think the Alpha was in the narrations? ;)

[Aganzir]

She's cross that I've caught her
Bwahaha! Who caught whom? :p ;)

I assume Shasta is telling the truth because the BW is actually more of a threat to the evil team now that the only gifted still around is Tom.

Assuming Shasta is indeed a wolf, the TEW voters from yesterDay should be looked at very closely. TEW's post in which he voted Shasta would have sent up alarm bells, and they knew they couldn't kill him last Night.
I agree. Technically we could probably start it even now (however I'm busy writing a paper).

++Shasta

[Loslote]

Hey, I have two friends who are more than willing to rip up people on my say so! Who do you think the Alpha was in the narrations? ;)

Job requirements: obey Shasta. I knew I was glad I wasn't a wolf! :p;)

EDIT: xed with Agan and I really do have to go now, but I shall return before DL.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hey, everything I've said until now? Just a product of a crazy Shasta's tormented imagination. I'm just an ordo and wanted reactions. Really. I promise. *nodnod*

[Kath]

Question: If sally's the BW ... double lynch possible?

Also (and this is a little off topic but still) - did we not have a discussion about the language in werewolf games when we were all talking about it a while back? Only there seems to be a fair amount of low level swearing going on.

I'm not going to be around much this evening. Exhausted. Will try to keep up and will definitely vote.

[Aganzir]

Who do you think the Alpha was in the narrations?
Does this explain why you attacked both the Barrow-Wight and Butterbur? :p (I mean, your psychic powers and all.)

Question: If sally's the BW ... double lynch possible?
Nope, in case of a tie there's a coin flip. It's good because otherwise yesterday would almost have been a catastrophe, but it's bad in a situation like this.

[Inziladun]

Inzil, Inzil, Inzil. You'd have been dead a long time ago for the sheer annoyance factor, but I thought I could get you lynched. Obviously I overestimated myself, but kicking a man while he's down? Really?

Should that be emended to "you and Pitch" thought you could get me lynched? It's odd how he latched onto your "case" against me.

But see, now I'm considering outing Bombadil so Sally can stun them, letting my packmates kill Bombadil tonight, so that you guys are forced to lynch her tomorrow. :)

Fortunately all you can do is hazard a guess at who Tom is. You have no way to be certain, and neither does the BW.

x/d with Shasta, Kath, and Agan

[Inziladun]

Nope, in case of a tie there's a coin flip. It's good because otherwise yesterday would almost have been a catastrophe, but it's bad in a situation like this.

Which makes me wonder again about Kath. Her question about the conditions of a tie notwithstanding, it was her vote that sealed TEW's fate yesterDay.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++SHASTA

Hope he's telling the truth about Sally. Would love to think the wolves are silly enough to try a coded message right when we're all looking for one. :)

[Kath]

I should also mention the end of yesterDay. I cross posted with everything from the post that contained the list of potential lynch candidates that is within my vote post. I had no idea it was a tie until I posted and realised I'd broken it.

EDIT: Ah, which I think answers Inzil.

[Aganzir]

Hope he's telling the truth about Sally. Would love to think the wolves are silly enough to try a coded message right when we're all looking for one. :)
Well as I said I think the chances are fairly good he is - the wolves should have no reason to not reveal the BW. And me too, although I'd take everything Shasta says with a pinch of salt because he knows he's going down.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Does this explain why you attacked both the Barrow-Wight and Butterbur? :p (I mean, your psychic powers and all.)


Nope, in case of a tie there's a coin flip. It's good because otherwise yesterday would almost have been a catastrophe, but it's bad in a situation like this.

Have I hit an ordo yet? Answer - nooooo. :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, I'm going with a tentative "no" on the "reveal Bombadil" plan. Is this right, wolf brethren? Cobblercode for "yes, don't reveal" and Giftedcode for "no, do reveal". :)

[Nerwen]

Back again. I haven't had time to re-read everything, but from the last few posts it appears that my heart of hearts has decided to confess. There, there, dearest, it feels so much better now, doesn't it?;)

Anyway–
++Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Back again. I haven't had time to re-read everything, but from the last few posts it appears that my heart of hearts has decided to confess. There, there, dearest, it feels so much better now, doesn't it?;)

Anyway–
++Shasta

OW! There's a gaping hole where my heart used to be, dumpling, where you ripped it out and stomped on it just now. :(

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Ahhh, topping the post count list feels divine. :Merisu:

[Nerwen]

OW! There's a gaping hole where my heart used to be, dumpling, where you ripped it out and stomped on it just now. :(
My sweet, what else could I do?:(

I'll miss you.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My sweet, what else could I do?:(

I'll miss you.

You could have voted for Sally, a bigger baddie than I. :( But no.

I actually considered having you killed, my love, but out of the goodness of my heart, decided valorously against it! And this is my repayment?

[Nerwen]

You could have voted for Sally, a bigger baddie than I. :( But no.

I actually considered having you killed, my love, but out of the goodness of my heart, decided valorously against it! And this is my repayment?
Oh my dearest, you're right: I could have voted Sally! I just didn't think of it. Can you forgive me?:(

Also, though, I'd have needed a little more time to consider how likely it is that you're telling the truth about her.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh my dearest, you're right: I could have voted Sally! I just didn't think of it. Can you forgive me?:(

Also, though, I'd have needed a little more time to consider how likely it is that you're telling the truth about her.

Why, true-hearted one, I find repulsive and repugnant the intimation that I would lie about anything! :Merisu:

Seriously, though. Sally's the Barrow-Wight.

[Nerwen]

Why, true-hearted one, I find repulsive and repugnant the intimation that I would lie about anything! :Merisu:

Seriously, though. Sally's the Barrow-Wight.
We-ell, the way she's been acting toDay, you'd be very silly to try and take her down with you if you didn't know her role, just in case her real name was Ferny. So I'm inclined to think you may be telling the truth. We'll see, my sun in splendour.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

We-ell, the way she's been acting toDay, you'd be very silly to try and take her down with you if you didn't know her role, just in case her real name was Ferny. So I'm inclined to think you may be telling the truth. We'll see, my sun in splendour.

A small but noted consolation, moon's pearlescent gleam.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ugh, it goes on. Can't wait 'til Shasta dies. Can we make the lynch a particularly gruesome one?

[Pitchwife]

Well, if he got us a wolf, I wouldn't exactly call him "useless".
Amen to that.
Can Tom be Night-killed before he does his thing? I thought only the BW could stop Tom by stunning him at the beginning of the Night.
Bombadil can be stunned by the B-W, and if he is, then Bombadil can not send in a name that night. Bombadil may be lynched or night-killed by the wolves and he may never reveal.
Should that be emended to "you and Pitch" thought you could get me lynched? It's odd how he latched onto your "case" against me.
Hm, fair point. I've got to admit I was badly mistaken about Shasta (not for the first time:rolleyes:). Whether I was as badly mistaken about you, remains to be seen... but for the moment, you look a lot better.

Sorry for being such a submarine toDay, had to take a bitch to the doctor and some household chores to do, promise to amend toMorrow.

[Loslote]

A list!

Undeniably Good
Lottiepop

Deniably Good, But I Don't Deny It
Agan
Nerwen

Deniably Good, And I Might Deny It
Vanilwuffin
Greenie
Kath

Deniably Evil, And I Might Deny It
Zil
Formy

Deniably Evil, But I Don't Deny It
Eomer
Pitchie

Undeniably Evil
Shasta
Sallycake

So. TB can haz kill toNight? ^.^

[Nerwen]

Ugh, it goes on. Can't wait 'til Shasta dies. Can we make the lynch a particularly gruesome one?

No. How horrid of you to want to torment my little turtledove. Especially if you're on the same team, which wouldn't greatly surprise me, actually.:p

–Farewell, my dearest one! This village will be much emptier (and safer) without you!:Merisu:

[Kath]

++ SHASTA

Because I'm very tired. And he says he's a wolf.

[Aganzir]

I probably shouldn't drink yerba mate at this hour if I'm planning to go to sleep early, but it's the only thing that keeps my brain going long enough for me to post... :smokin:

A couple of things worth pointing out.

I don't understand why Form made such a fuss of Shasta mentioning us both in a post.

I'm feeling good about Lottie (not the least because EW called her OK), wilwa & Zil. However if I'm still alive tomorrow, I'm going to take a new look at the others I've been thinking innocent (namely Greenie & Pitch). I'm going to dare a guess there's at least one wolf among Eomer, Nerwen, Form and Kath (listed in order of suspiciousness).

There was something Eomer said before that caught my eye... Oh yes.
Inclined to think that Wilwa is guilty.
I don't think her fight with Shasta looked staged.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Reading through Shasta's posts today, Aganzir, I've changed my mind about Wilwa. I think she's probably innocent.

[A Little Green]

Darn daylight savings!! Sorry!

++ Shasta

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Let's gather my thoughts, as of this moment.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Guilty: Shasta and Sally

Other two wolves, between: Greenie, Formendacil, Kath, Nerwen.

Leaning towards innocent: Inziladun, Loslote, Wilwa, Pitch.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Darn daylight savings!! Sorry!

++ Shasta

That was, what, four days ago? Get with the times. :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

If you guys could lynch/kill Eomer, too, as a parting gift to me, that'd be just dandy. :)

Jerk.

[Aganzir]

Reading through Shasta's posts today, Aganzir, I've changed my mind about Wilwa. I think she's probably innocent.
Oh yeah that's true. I only remembered there was something I wanted to comment on.

Let's gather my thoughts, as of this moment.
What about me? :(

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Forgot about you. :D That's terrible.

Agan is innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm not even going to comment on Shasta's lame attempt to frame me (oooo, I rhymed!) except to say that it is, of course, ludicrous (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mk7VWcuVOf0).

ETA: Added link, now that my webs are sort of working again. Possible language warning on that link; I can't recall the whole scene exactly. :/

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Last Post Of The Day Belongs To A Wolf Bwahahaha.

[Boromir88]

Deadline. Stop the chatter.

Seeing as he's confessed this will be far less climatic than usual, but Shasta is indeed a wolf. Fea will follow with one of her narrations.

Tis Night. Anyone with anything to do begin. :D

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Love you, Shasticle (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7544069/)!

[Boromir88]

The wolves were feeling down from the loss of their fallen comrade. They wanted a messy blood-soaked evening tonight to make up for the day. Even with Ranger lynched, the Seer dealt with, and Butterbur's enchanted ale finally wearing off it seemed like the wolves still had an uphill climb to win. There was afterall Bombadil, and that nuisance of a Barrow-wight.

"I hope Bombadil listened to our dearly beloved Shasta yesterday." said one of the wolves.

"I can't believe we are seeking the help of that feather-capped buffoon." snarled the other wolf.

"Yes, but Bombadil is no trouble to us during the night, the Wight has been a pain and we need his help to get rid of that pain. Don't worry my tasty-looking darling, once he takes care of the Wight, his use is up and we'll feast on that yellow-booted ninny next. In the mean time, Inzil looks good to me. You?"

"Mmm I could go for some Inzil 'N chips right now indeed."

The wolves approached Inziladun's room and it was still a frosty chill in the air. It appears the Wight had chosen its victim and just left. When the wolves entered the room, their thoughts were confirmed. Inzil lay on the bed as limp as a deboned fish.

"Oh boo...that takes the fun out of it. He was such a feisty hyena during the day. I was looking forward to eating him." pouted one of the wolves.

"Think of it as a fridge." shrugged the other wolf. "He's kept nice and fresh for us, we can make this a messy all-night affair."

Meanwhile....

Hey Dol! Merry ole Bombadillo!
Where be that Wighty-o!?
Oh-hey-o found you have Bombadillo.

"No fair!" shrieked sally. "You would never have found me had that weasel Shasta-wolf not given me up!"

Makes no difference to Bombadillo!
Wighty back to your grave you go!

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Greenie
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Pitchwife
Wilwa

DEAD
Boro (Mod) - knocked out stone-cold - Night 1
Fea (honorary co-mod) - nommed by wolfies - Night 1
Glirdan (cobbler) - Harry Goatleaf - Day 1
No death! - Night 2
Volo (innocent) - Ranger - Day 2
Nogrod (innocent) - Butterbur - Night 3
Elf-Warrior (innocent - Seer - Day 3
No death! - Night 4
Shasta (evil) - wolf - Day 4
Inzil (innocent) - ordo - Night 5
Sally (evil) - Barry Wight - Night 5

It's now Day 5. Commence talking on the eventful night.
In a village of 9: 2 wolves, Ferney, Bombadil, and 5 ordos remain

(I wanted it a bit longer and more epic for our departed Miss Wight, but about 15 minutes before DL my connection went out - must have been that nasty Wight anyway :p and I lost most the narration.)

[Loslote]

No way I'm the first person to post. :eek:

Butbut...yay for SallyWight being deadful. :p

Butbutbut...one thing that jumped out at me from yesterDay was this:

Hey, I have two friends who are more than willing to rip up people on my say so! Who do you think the Alpha was in the narrations? ;)

which seems to indicate that the other two wolves are people who are more likely to let Shasta take the lead. Of course, he may be throwing us a bit of a red herring, but it's something to take into consideration, and would tend to implicate people like Formy, Eomer, and Pitchie as opposed to people like Agan and maybe Kath...chances are it doesn't mean much, though.

[Nerwen]

No way I'm the first person to post. :eek:

Butbut...yay for SallyWight being deadful. :p

Butbutbut...one thing that jumped out at me from yesterDay was this:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin
Hey, I have two friends who are more than willing to rip up people on my say so! Who do you think the Alpha was in the narrations?

which seems to indicate that the other two wolves are people who are more likely to let Shasta take the lead. Of course, he may be throwing us a bit of a red herring, but it's something to take into consideration, and would tend to implicate people like Formy, Eomer, and Pitchie as opposed to people like Agan and maybe Kath...chances are it doesn't mean much, though.

I wouldn't want to pay too much attention to what an exposed wolf says. True, he was telling the truth about Sally *blows Shasta a kiss* but then she wasn't one of his comrades. There's no way of telling whether that's a bluff, a double-bluff, or what. Probably not an accidental slip, anyway.

–So apparently the wolves think they know who Bombadil is. Or is that just a flight of fancy for narration purposes, plus bluffing on Shasta's part?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I had marked Inziladun down as innocent so the kill doesn't surprise me. Obviously, everyone should go analyse Shasta's posts to see his interaction with other villagers.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

which seems to indicate that the other two wolves are people who are more likely to let Shasta take the lead. Of course, he may be throwing us a bit of a red herring, but it's something to take into consideration, and would tend to implicate people like Formy, Eomer, and Pitchie as opposed to people like Agan and maybe Kath...chances are it doesn't mean much, though.

It could mean something, but Pitch and I both have plenty more posts than Kath, so not sure how you draw this conclusion.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I guess our remaining villains are Green, Formendacil and Kath; though only a fool would gladly give Nerwen the benefit of the doubt. :p

[wilwarin538]

Wow, our first dead ordo (on Night 5, how odd).



Hey, I have two friends who are more than willing to rip up people on my say so! Who do you think the Alpha was in the narrations?

which seems to indicate that the other two wolves are people who are more likely to let Shasta take the lead. Of course, he may be throwing us a bit of a red herring, but it's something to take into consideration, and would tend to implicate people like Formy, Eomer, and Pitchie as opposed to people like Agan and maybe Kath...chances are it doesn't mean much, though.

Actually the narration from Night 5 referred to all of the wolves as Alpha, and I don't think Shasta would give a hint like that anyway. He was asking them for permission to do something yesterDay (with his little code), if he was in charge he would have just done it instead of finding out if it was ok.

I have a really crazy day today with school and work, and my computer keeps acting up so I may not be able to come on at school if it happens again (and going on here on my iPod is annoying, so anything I do say will be very brief). This will likely be a very bad day for me to participate.

[Aganzir]

Butbut...yay for SallyWight being deadful.
Seconded. Kudos to Tom! ;)

It could mean something, but Pitch and I both have plenty more posts than Kath, so not sure how you draw this conclusion.
Dear Eomer, what she means is that you and Pitch are totally not Alpha-worthy wolves. :p

Actually the narration from Night 5 referred to all of the wolves as Alpha, and I don't think Shasta would give a hint like that anyway. He was asking them for permission to do something yesterDay (with his little code), if he was in charge he would have just done it instead of finding out if it was ok.
Where did it refer to them as Alpha? The only thing I noticed about it was the lack of mention of Alpha... It's probably not a very important thing to pursue though, if there's an Alpha it's more likely some twist of Boro's than something the wolf pack has decided based on who form it.
I wonder why Shasta did not do as he threatened, though... The most likely scenario is that he just wanted to confuse us - at least I can't see any possible hints in anyone's interaction with him.

I'll go through Shasta's posts when I get home (I'm sitting on the tram, and although the public transport wireless works just fine, this is not the easiest place to type).

[wilwarin538]

Here (the previous Night he had referred to one Alpha):


"I can't believe that just happened" grinned the other Alpha. "Now we know who the Wight is, so it shall be easy to avoid and with no guardian, looks like our fortunes are finally beginning to change."

"Aye" said the last Alpha. "And let us hope it's a seer snack tonight. That will more than fill my hungry stomach."

It was actually from Night 3, but yeah, probably not all that important.

*goes back to taking notes*

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Who do we suspect people? Let's start fighting with each other! Way too nice today. :p

[Loslote]

It could mean something, but Pitch and I both have plenty more posts than Kath, so not sure how you draw this conclusion.

I wasn't thinking of post count when I said that. Closer to this:

Dear Eomer, what she means is that you and Pitch are totally not Alpha-worthy wolves. :p

But even that's not quite it. More that you, Pitchie, and Formy are, from what I've seen, more laid-back and less confrontational. I don't know Kath that well, so I said maybe on her. Agan, we all know, is a bit confrontational. ;)

Also, it's Thursday again, so...I'll be voting way early again. Maybe for Eomer or Pitchie (and not because of the Alpha theory, but because I actually do find them suspicious).

[Aganzir]

Shasta went quite consistently after Inzil and me since day 1 (his initial reason being BW confusion), and also didn't trust Pitch. He considered voting for either Glirdan or me and went for Glirdan in the end (mwahaha).

On day 2, he suggests the BW is someone who looked seerish, mentioning Nog as a potential candidate (which would "point at one or more of Greenie, Pitch, Wilwa, and Agan as wolves," me being the most likely wolf in the bunch - later he says an Aganwolf doesn't make sense in the context of the theory which also casts doubt on the other three being wolves). He and Inzil argued about Eomer after Inzil suggested Eomer looked more like the seer who had dreamed me a wolf than Nog did because Nog was so explicit that I was the cobbler.
Anyway he pushed Nog's being the BW very strongly (although he also mentioned the no trace people Eomer, sally, Kath & Form as possible kills). I'm inclined to think he was trying to take a distance from sally in case she died before him so we wouldn't find a link back to Shasta... and he says it'd be useful to speculate on who the BW is because the fact that the wolves attacked her is a big piece of information. And because sally was pretty much a no trace kill, it would've been convenient for the wolves to make us focus on that.

Shasta finds EW's vote for Eomer fabricated-looking and safe, and calls wilwa and me wolfish for saying there's no use trying to find the BW before we know more. He argues with wilwa and to a lesser degree also me and Pitch, and expresses contempt for Form's motivation. He's neutral on Eomer but "inclined to see if he steps it up tomorrow (last chance, Eomer!)"

You don't want to vote for my dear one or I, and yet you find us both guilty? How interesting.
There's something weird about this comment. It's a reply to me after I said I suspected both Nerwen and Shasta but didn't want to vote for them that day. It's oddly... self-conscious, if you know what I mean. It looks like he was accusing me of not voting either of them... or kind of like "She doesn't want to vote for people she suspects! Guilty!" And it actually makes me feel worse about Nerwen.

Out of Eomer, me, EW, wilwa and Form I looked the worst and wilwa the best, but he ended up voting for Volo (crossing with his reveal). He then called for three more votes for Eomer, but it didn't basically mean anything because Volo was the only remaining voter around.

I wonder how much we can make of Shasta's day 3 posts because EW voted for him quite early (and his post must have alarmed the wolves, Shasta included, so he might have been preparing for his death already then).
He banters with Nerwen in a friendly tone, says he seems to remember Eomer is more involved as a wolf but he might still vote for him on principle, and disagrees with Greenie: "I don't really see why having principles automatically makes you wolvish." They were talking about Kath, and that's not what Greenie said, she just pointed out it would be convenient for a wolf. He criticised Inzil for calling EW an easy vote and voting for Kath himself (who hadn't shown up yet that day). He wanted to vote for Eomer & me (plus a couple of dead innocents), didn't want to for wilwa, Lottie & Greenie, and could vote for Kath & Form (and sally) on principle but probably wouldn't unless things changed. He was neutral on Pitch and Nerwen. I'm not going to start any "he probably didn't put his fellows in the same category" stuff because it's impossible to know what a wolf would do in a certain situation... but it's worth pointing out that he probably knew he'd die if EW was revealed as the seer, and his intent was therefore to ensure that his fellows survive. However there are a million ways for that, and if someone wants to analyse it, go ahead, but I won't.

And I'm going to ignore everything Shasta said yesterday because it was meant just to confuse us, and I think the only thing we might be able to find there is the cobbler (and even that's not a given).

**

Shasta suspects (but never votes - everyone he actually voted is dead by now):
Eomer
Agan

Friendly with:
Nerwen

Quarrels with:
wilwa
Pitch
(Agan)

Very little interaction:
Form
Greenie
Kath
Lottie

Based on this, I'd put people (myself excluded, obviously) in this order. From the most likely fellow to the least:
Eomer - an enigma that could go either way, but to me he looks more wolfish than innocent. The way Shasta keeps bringing him up but never acts on it doesn't really speak in his favour (but then, he did the same with me).
Kath - very little interaction but Shasta's subtle defense of her by semi-questioning Greenie doesn't look too good.
Nerwen - not much game-related interaction except occasional agreeing with each other which would be convenient for them as a wolf-pair. Plus the quote I provided above.
Form - nothing speaks for his being Shasta's fellow, but nothing speaks against it, either.
Pitch - an argument but not much else.
Greenie - because he twisted what she said of Kath.
wilwa - her argument with Shasta looks quite innocent.
Lottie - because I'm willing to consider her a known innocent, anyway.

Note that this is only based on what Shasta said of people, not what they said of him. I might take a look at it later unless someone else would like to (which, to be honest, I wouldn't much mind :p).

[Aganzir]

Agan, we all know, is a bit confrontational. ;)
I hope this proves my innocence because I totally wouldn't let Shasta be the Alpha. :Merisu:

Maybe for Eomer or Pitchie (and not because of the Alpha theory, but because I actually do find them suspicious).
I find the part in brackets hilarious. :D

[Loslote]

I hope this proves my innocence because I totally wouldn't let Shasta be the Alpha. :Merisu:

Really, though, I'm inclined to think you mostly innocent. Regardless of the Alpha thing, I don't see you and Shasta being packmates, and you haven't been very suspicious.

Since I don't know if I'll have another chance to get on today...

++Eomer

Good wolf hunting, O village!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Less confrontational? Today I have demanded that we all start being nastier to each other; previously I urged the mods to give Shasta a particularly gruesome death; and I earlier admitted that my bloodlust was so that I could barely think of anything other than lynching Kath - and Kath's reply to this last statement was good-humoured!

So I take that claim, coupled with your vote, with the greatest offence! :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, seriously, are we giving Loslote a free pass because of what EW said? I tend to think yes and that we have to trust our Seer to make his dreams apparent. Opinions?

[A Little Green]

Wow, our first dead ordo (on Night 5, how odd).Whoa, that's true actually. What a strange game.
There's something weird about this comment. It's a reply to me after I said I suspected both Nerwen and Shasta but didn't want to vote for them that day. It's oddly... self-conscious, if you know what I mean. It looks like he was accusing me of not voting either of them... or kind of like "She doesn't want to vote for people she suspects! Guilty!" And it actually makes me feel worse about Nerwen. I don't get this point really, but then again I don't think I get the quote it's about either.. :rolleyes:
Shasta suspects (but never votes - everyone he actually voted is dead by now):
Eomer
Agan

Friendly with:
Nerwen

Quarrels with:
wilwa
Pitch
(Agan)

Very little interaction:
Form
Greenie
Kath
Lottie This, though, is really interesting. Especially the first category. Shasta was quite consistent in suspecting both Agan and Eomer, and yet never voted either. I doubt both two are his fellows, that would be a very odd move from Shasta's part, but I'll be a bit surprised if neither of them is. Suspecting without actually doing anything about it points to wolf-on-wolf, though as I said that's likely not the case with both (which brings into question if it's the case with either). Agh, I've got a feeling I'm not making much sense, but I'm trying.
Ok, seriously, are we giving Loslote a free pass because of what EW said? I tend to think yes and that we have to trust our Seer to make his dreams apparent. Opinions?I agree with you on this point. It would have made absolutely no sense at all for EW to single her out like that while mentioning no one else if he hadn't dreamed her innocent. So I, at least, am leaving Lottie alone.

[Pitchwife]

Butbut...yay for SallyWight being deadful.
Well, technically she was deadful to begin with, but yay for her being doubleplusdeadful. Well done, Tom!
(By the way, I think we can assume that Tom is not somebody whom she could have stunned last Night, and not who she apparently thought he was, right? In this case, I'm quite at a loss what to make of her vendetta against Agan. Any ideas?)

And R.I.P. Zil. Rereading yesterDays proceedings, it became clear even to me that he had to be innocent - with that temper on both sides of his fight with Shasta, no way it could have been staged. So his death wasn't really a big surprise.:(
(Although, in principle, with TEW's role revealed it must have been clear to the wolves that Shasta would be yesterDay's lynch, so it would have made sense for his packmates to push it in order to increase their own chances. Those who argued the most for it - i.e. Lottie, Eomer, Nerwen , among the living - obviously look good now, but there could still be a wolf in there (not saying there has to).)

Zil suggested looking at the TEW voters from Day 3, and I've started going through Lottie's posts from the beginning, because I suspected her quite heavily on Day 1 but haven't concentrated on her since. It does look like TEW dreamed her innocent on Night 2, mainly because I think he would have made sure to leave some clues in the few words he posted, but I'd just like to see for myself.

[wilwarin538]

Computer dead, doing this on iPod, won't be able to come on again, sorry!

++Pitch

Kind of random I'm afraid! Good luck!

[Nerwen]

There's something weird about this comment. It's a reply to me after I said I suspected both Nerwen and Shasta but didn't want to vote for them that day. It's oddly... self-conscious, if you know what I mean. It looks like he was accusing me of not voting either of them... or kind of like "She doesn't want to vote for people she suspects! Guilty!" And it actually makes me feel worse about Nerwen.I don't get this point really, but then again I don't think I get the quote it's about either.. :rolleyes:
Me neither. It seems like a bit of a reach on Agan's part, really.

This, though, is really interesting. Especially the first category. Shasta was quite consistent in suspecting both Agan and Eomer, and yet never voted either. I doubt both two are his fellows, that would be a very odd move from Shasta's part, but I'll be a bit surprised if neither of them is. Suspecting without actually doing anything about it points to wolf-on-wolf, though as I said that's likely not the case with both (which brings into question if it's the case with either). Agh, I've got a feeling I'm not making much sense, but I'm trying.
No, that makes sense– and I don't know which of them (if it is one) it would be.

However, since I have to go now I'll vote

++Eomer

Apologies if you're innocent, Eomer, because you really helped lynch Shasta yesterDay– but I'm afraid your interactions rubbed me the wrong way, especially towards the end. Like you were overplaying the role of an innocent gloating over a trapped wolf, if you see what I mean.

And I'm sorry for my lack of participation toDay, but I spent the morning and afternoon driving around the country getting footage for a video I'm making, and the evening logging it. So I just wasn't able to be around much.

EDIT:X'd since Greenie.

[Nerwen]

Well, technically she was deadful to begin with, but yay for her being doubleplusdeadful. Well done, Tom!
(By the way, I think we can assume that Tom is not somebody whom she could have stunned last Night, and not who she apparently thought he was, right?
Sally stunned Zil last Night. It's in the narration.

In this case, I'm quite at a loss what to make of her vendetta against Agan. Any ideas?)

Unless I dreamed this, Agan said she was stunned the Night before.
The B-W may not stun the same person twice in a row.
So I'd guess Sally did think Agan was Bombadil (whether rightly or wrongly ), but simply wasn't able to stun her last Night.

[Kath]

I'm mildly confused about this focus on Shasta being Alpha meaning that he was 'in charge'. Especially after someone posted that part of the narration in which ALL the wolves were referred to as Alpha. So surely the term has no meaning beyond being a kind of title. As for Shasta saying 'I have two wolf buddies who will rip apart anyone I say' (ish) ... so far as I saw that was just a caught wolf blustering. Can't quite see why people are reading so much into it.

[Aganzir]

Ok, seriously, are we giving Loslote a free pass because of what EW said? I tend to think yes and that we have to trust our Seer to make his dreams apparent. Opinions?
Yes. If she actually is a wolf and wins the game, we can blame EW. ;)

(By the way, I think we can assume that Tom is not somebody whom she could have stunned last Night, and not who she apparently thought he was, right? In this case, I'm quite at a loss what to make of her vendetta against Agan. Any ideas?)
What do you mean with the first sentence?
Anyway it occurred to me that the wolves might have thought Inzil was Tom - after all sally clearly seemed to... at least if they decided to go by Shasta's plan. That would explain why Lottie is still alive, I was expecting her to die because of how EW singled her out.
As for her attack against me, the easiest explanation is that she thought I was actually a wolf, although I'm pretty sure the fact that I suspected her played a part in it.

Me neither. It seems like a bit of a reach on Agan's part, really.
If it looks odd to me, I rather point it out than regret it afterwards.

[Aganzir]

Unless I dreamed this, Agan said she was stunned the Night before.
Yes. EDIT: No, it was wilwa the night before, I was before that.

So I'd guess Sally did think Agan was Bombadil (whether rightly or wrongly ), but simply wasn't able to stun her last Night.
I don't think she would've attacked me the way she did if she had thought I was Tom. It would've made more sense for her to butter me up, just so I wouldn't get suspicious and check her.

[Aganzir]

Okay I'm now going to go through everyone's (at least if I have the energy) posts and see how they talked of Shasta.

OOC: Pitch, they miss you in Palantir of Fortune. ;)

[A Little Green]

I don't think she would've attacked me the way she did if she had thought I was Tom. It would've made more sense for her to butter me up, just so I wouldn't get suspicious and check her.Makes sense. I'm at a loss, though, with what could have made Sally-Wight go so heavily after someone just randomly. The thing is, it wasn't just strong suspicion, it was an absolute and aggressive conviction of Agan's furriness. I'm off for a walk now anyway, will try to give that some thought.

[Pitchwife]

Sally stunned Zil last Night. It's in the narration.
Aw, you're right, I'd forgotten.

Unless I dreamed this, Agan said she was stunned the Night before.

So I'd guess Sally did think Agan was Bombadil (whether rightly or wrongly ), but simply wasn't able to stun her last Night.
I think wilwa said she was stunned the Night before yesterDay, and Agan said she was the Night before that, so sally could have stunned her last Night but didn't, hence my conclusion that sally was either wrong about Agan or changed her mind, or both. I brought it up because I thought it could help me see clearer about Agan, but as things are, it doesn't very much.

Agan - OK, buttering up would be a viable tactic, but I think she'd have wanted Tom dead before xe could get her, hence it looks to me like she thought it was you. But that might have been too obvious.

About the Alpha thing - Lottie's right that I generally wouldn't mind letting an experienced wolf like Shasta take the lead, but I don't know that we'd have exactly gotten on like a house on fire. Clashing personalities, I'm afraid.

OOC: Pitch, they miss you in Palantir of Fortune.

Well, wilwa at least seems to have pity on them...

[Formendacil]

So... I came on the Downs approximately 3 hours ago, intending to post here, and completely got sidetracked by the genealogy of the sons of Eärendil, and then got distracted by a process of tangentially related ideas such that... I'm only here now, and with other things to do.

Hopefully, though, you expect nothing else from me at this point, given how the game has gone so far.

This, though, is really interesting. Especially the first category. Shasta was quite consistent in suspecting both Agan and Eomer, and yet never voted either. I doubt both two are his fellows, that would be a very odd move from Shasta's part, but I'll be a bit surprised if neither of them is.

In my read-through of posts so far, this is what stuck out to me... largely because I tend to agree--although I'm a bit more willing than Greenie to think they could both be wolves, while conceding that one is, in fact, more likely.

In keeping then, with my yesterDay suspicions about Agan (namely that she was listed with me in Shasta's post for the purposes of exonerating her, convicting me, doing both, or just confusing the village), I'll lean in her direction, though Eomer is giving me bad vibes as well.

++ Aganzir

I may be on later... but I'm not committing to it.