WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The game has begun! Am sending roles now and will post a list of players.

It is now Night 1. The three Wolves may PM and the Seer may dream.

Edit: Roles have been sent. If you did not receive a PM then you are an Ordo.

Player list -

Wilwa
Lottie
Boro
Sally
Nerwen
Elronhubbard
Eomer
Greenie
Inzil
Nogrod
Lommy
Legate
Nessa

[Shastanis Althreduin]

This is about an hour and a half late, but Day 1 has started. I'm going to make the deadline an hour later, unless people tell me not to, since this delay was unexpected. You can start posting. :)

[Loslote]

Since our dear Cup Cake is Internet-impaired, I thought I might as well do her a favor and link youtube videos obsessively for her.

You're welcome.

Vanilwuffin (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A49PPEk3fYQ) - Is an evil confectionary treat.

Lottie (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhjRUKCKIG4&feature=related) - Is innocent as can be, naturally.

Boro (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_kD5wF7NZA) - Nearly received a Spaceballs link instead, but didn't, which means he needs to be lynched.

Sally (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMrN3Rh55uM&feature=channel) - Is to blame for this post (sorta) and thus ought to be lynched.

Nerwen (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3qDnPzHFuo) - Ought to be lynched just 'cause.

Elronhubbard (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNjcuZ-LiSY&feature=related) - Is a fun newbie who should...um...be lynched!

Eomer (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZtSVDrlOPA) - I don't know why I gave him this exact link, but hey, it's a good link which totally means he should be lynched.

Greenie (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fDBl1wT2Lk) - I think this one may be a bit self-evident in its call for lynching. No?

Zil (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gldlyTjXk9A&feature=related) - Is, I'm sure, evil again.

Nog (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExigIpJ286w) - Had a birthday recently, and thus ought to be lynched as a belated birthday gift.

Lommy (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpgZegnBaic) - Clearly, is ebil and needs lynching.

Legate (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nm9o6DH_uzE) - Noms people, and thus ought to be lynched.

Nessa (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZXEtRzAucU) - Is someone I have seen but never met, and, thus, is deserving of lynching.

Shasta (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5_OSsawz4) - Is our dearly beloved mod and should not be lynched.

[Nerwen]

÷÷Lottie÷÷
:p:p:p

[Nerwen]

All quiet on the werewolf front, I see.

[Nerwen]

So still, so quiet. I believe I will sing.

"♩♫ La la la, la la la, la-la-la-la, la la la
LA! LAAAA!! LAAAAAAAA!!!♬♪"

There. Wasn't that beautiful?:):smokin::cool:

[A Little Green]

Absolutely lovely.

[Nerwen]

Why, thank you, my dear.

And now that three people have posted, I wonder which of us is the wolf?:eek:

[A Little Green]

You, naturally, since you're the one to ask. :Merisu:

[Inziladun]

Just remember, Lottie, "NO ONE EXPECTS THE SPANISH INQUISITION!". :p

Since it's so quiet, I'll amuse myself by singing all 18 minutes of Al Stewart's Love Chronicles. Those who have never heard of AL Stewart should be lynched. ;)

[elronds_daughter]

Erm...most impressive, Zil.

I think Lottie's being a tad unfair, saying I should be lynched right off the bat... Just because I'm new and different, that doesn't mean I'm evil.

Not that I'm asking for hugs and cake (or death! erm, I mean, what?)...I will happily settle for a wary tolerance. :)

[Nessa Telrunya]

Erm...most impressive, Zil.

I think Lottie's being a tad unfair, saying I should be lynched right off the bat... Just because I'm new and different, that doesn't mean I'm evil.

Not that I'm asking for hugs and cake (or death! erm, I mean, what?)...I will happily settle for a wary tolerance. :)

You mean a wary hug and a tolerance cake? :p

[elronds_daughter]

You mean a wary hug and a tolerance cake? :p

Sure. :)

[Nerwen]

Erm...most impressive, Zil.

I think Lottie's being a tad unfair, saying I should be lynched right off the bat... Just because I'm new and different, that doesn't mean I'm evil.
She said everyone should be (except herself and Shasta). Your failure to notice this speaks of a guilty conscience, young Elra. Clearly, you ought to be lynched.
÷÷Elra÷÷

[Nerwen]

The only thing that remains, really, is to think of a wolf-name for her.

Any objections to Wolfronhubbard?

[Thinlómien]

Okay I'm here and slightly confused that the game has started or that it's actually Day1 instead of Night1 already.

Me this morning, seeing Greenie with the laptop: Has the game started already?
Greenie: Yes, but not much is happening.
Me: *wonders if that was a slip* ...? Is it Day or Night?
Greenie: Day.
Me: *brain explodes with the information that it's Day1 already and I don't even know my role*

Anyway, now I'm here and not very confused anymore. Not that it seems like much is happening here either. Which is kind of annoying because I expected to find myself in the middle of some kind of discussion (other than whether Nerwen's singing is lovely) so that I could comment something instead of using lots of time and brain capacity to come up with a discussion out of nothing.

Which brings me to another issue. I don't know if I should have signed up because I really don't have much time this week for anything. But I'll do my best and there's always time for ww even if it means you don't sleep. :rolleyes:;) Anyway, that just means you won't see me writing any horridly long analyses at least any time soon or flood-posting much.

Okay, so now I'll check if I have anything more to say about the posts this far or about the rules or anything, but then I'll go back to bury my head in my school books.


edit: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Or what about elronds_wolf?

Or wolfronds_daughter?

Decisions, decisions!:eek:

EDIT:X'd with Lommy.

[Thinlómien]

Okay...

The Heir - well nothing much to speculate about. Sort of makes the game more even and gives leeway for whichever side fumbles first.

The posts this far - Lottie: suspects everybody and posts YouTube videos which I don't have time to watch. Tries to butter up Sally, obviously. Nerwen and Greenie banter and Nerwen is intent on coming up with a wolf name for Elron who made the typical newbie wolf mistake of overreacting by defending herself against Lottie who in fact accused everybody. Inziladun considers me a wolf but I shouldn't have told him that. Nessa plays with words and is already twisting other people's words. :p Tsk tsk. I wonder if I've played with her before. Everybody else is quiet as a grave.

Okay that's it from me for now unless I cross-post with something worth commenting on. I'll be back in some hours and will vote early (every day in this game) because the DL is 6am Finnish time...

[elronds_daughter]

Of course now everybody is suspecting me, just because of a little bit of self-preservational instinct (which was probably a bad idea, in hindsight...). Maybe next time I should just jump to someone else's defense, instead of my own. (Newbie wolf mistake, Lommy? You sure it's not just a plain old newbie mistake?)

Still, I won't exactly be surprised if I'm the first innocent lynched. And you'll have no one to blame but yourselves.

[Nerwen]

I know! Let's lynch all of her!:cool:

÷÷elronds_daughter÷÷
÷÷Wolfronhubbard÷÷
÷÷elronds_wolf÷÷
÷÷wolfronds_daughter÷÷
÷÷Wolfra÷÷
÷÷Elwolf÷÷

[elronds_daughter]

Rats. Am I really that suspiciois a character that you accuse me so readily? Or is it "let's pick on the newbie" day?

[Inziladun]

The Heir - well nothing much to speculate about. Sort of makes the game more even and gives leeway for whichever side fumbles first.

"Enemies of the Heir, beware. You'll be next, Mudbloods!" Wait, wrong fandom. ;)

Inziladun considers me a wolf but I shouldn't have told him that.

So you admit that you haven't heard of Al? Not even this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QM7LR46zrQU) song?

Of course now everybody is suspecting me, just because of a little bit of self-preservational instinct (which was probably a bad idea, in hindsight...). Maybe next time I should just jump to someone else's defense, instead of my own. (Newbie wolf mistake, Lommy? You sure it's not just a plain old newbie mistake?)

Still, I won't exactly be surprised if I'm the first innocent lynched. And you'll have no one to blame but yourselves.

I haven't played with you before, so I won't be voting for you toDay. Typical newbie pass. Hyper-nerviness is a common wolf-cub trait, however.

x/d with rondi, ED, ??

[Loslote]

"Enemies of the Heir, beware. You'll be next, Mudbloods!"

Maybe I should have given you the Draco Malfoy Puppet song...

Anywho, I'm all for wolf's_daughter as a wolf-name for dear elronhubbard. Not that I'll vote for her (like Zil said, newbie pass) but this really is an issue that must be cleared up early.

Also, I'mma dissapear right after making this post. Just so you know.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I must say, as somebody mentioned here before, I would have expected somewhat more posts around here. As in, I know that it's hard to say (Day 1, we all know the usual arguments and problems with it...) still, this looks entirely "uninterested". Except for the few comments by/about Hubbard's daughter, which I originally thought were just joke as well (but some people, including herself, seem to take it seriously? Or am I mistaken?), and Lommy's short evaluation of the Heir, there isn't very much to go with.

Speaking of the Heir, I think that does not have much of a practical use in the beginning, but perhaps if we managed to lynch our Seer or something as lovely as that, it might prove rather useful. It can of course serve the Wolves as well, but for me, the main point of it is a failsafe against random Day 1 Seer-lynch (which is what haunts me the most after my last game).

What else? Where are all the vocal players when we need them? It might be a small village on Day 1, but come on. If first 12 hours of the Day 1 are spent in banter, why not, but I think slowly we should try to move on...

Shall be around...

[elronds_daughter]

Except for the few comments by/about Hubbard's daughter, which I originally thought were just joke as well (but some people, including herself, seem to take it seriously? Or am I mistaken?)...

Well, Legate, it was honestly intended to be lighthearted. Nerwen seems to be taking it more seriously than originally planned.

x/d with rondi, ED, ??

Zil, you may call me what you wish. "Hubbard" seems to be coming out of the woodwork...

[Loslote]

Earlier toDay, I noted that, if elronhubbard did turn out to be a wolf, Zil would be a likely candidate for her packmate, based on this:

I haven't played with you before, so I won't be voting for you toDay. Typical newbie pass. Hyper-nerviness is a common wolf-cub trait, however.

being an almost wolfish response to a packmate coming under suspicion - start off pointing out why we should not lynch her, then saying 'but she could be a wolf' so that he could point to that if she was lynched anyway - but after re-reading the thread, I've come to the conclusion that they would be unlikely packmates, based on purely meta-lic reasoning. Elra calls him Zil, but Zil introduces himself as Inzil. If they were packmates, she'd have spent all last Night thinking of him as Inzil. But, because I call him Zil, that's what non-packmate!Elra would have first associated with ThePersonKnownAsInziladun - and what she would call her.

I have no idea if that makes any sense at all. To me, it sort of looks like my brain spewed onto the computer...but hey, we've got nothing else going on.

[elronds_daughter]

Thank you, Lottie. Your support is greatly appreciated. :)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Heir is going to cause a bit of havoc in this game. If we're exceptionally lucky the first special player to die will be the Hunter in taking down a wolf.

[Inziladun]

Earlier toDay, I noted that, if elronhubbard did turn out to be a wolf, Zil would be a likely candidate for her packmate, based on this:



being an almost wolfish response to a packmate coming under suspicion - start off pointing out why we should not lynch her, then saying 'but she could be a wolf' so that he could point to that if she was lynched anyway - but after re-reading the thread, I've come to the conclusion that they would be unlikely packmates, based on purely meta-lic reasoning. Elra calls him Zil, but Zil introduces himself as Inzil. If they were packmates, she'd have spent all last Night thinking of him as Inzil. But, because I call him Zil, that's what non-packmate!Elra would have first associated with ThePersonKnownAsInziladun - and what she would call her.

I have no idea if that makes any sense at all. To me, it sort of looks like my brain spewed onto the computer...but hey, we've got nothing else going on.

Decent reasoning, my dear, and the fact that you discount our being packmates based on meta-reasoning, instead of using that to build a case on either of us, might be a point in favour of your innocence. My point was that she does seem somewhat defensive, but I don't want a brand new player lynched on Day 1 just for that. As usual, however, newbie pass expires Day 2.

The Heir is going to cause a bit of havoc in this game. If we're exceptionally lucky the first special player to die will be the Hunter in taking down a wolf.

Indeed. With 13 players, seven of whom are either wolves or Gifteds (including the Heir), it's actually likely we'll hit a non-ordo toDay with the lynch. So the Heir could come into play very quickly.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, Legate, it was honestly intended to be lighthearted. Nerwen seems to be taking it more seriously than originally planned.
Hm, actually now looking at it, it seems to me that it was Lommy who sort of first took it more seriously, before, it seems to me like just a random exchange between Nerwen and you. Then you continued in considering Lommy seriously and so on... anyway, my point was that I think the whole affair seems to be sort of "overrated", as it seemingly rose from just a joke, and not any serious accusation.

I have no idea if that makes any sense at all. To me, it sort of looks like my brain spewed onto the computer...but hey, we've got nothing else going on.
Better than silence, definitely.

The Heir is going to cause a bit of havoc in this game. If we're exceptionally lucky the first special player to die will be the Hunter in taking down a wolf.

Well, I think given the numbers, it won't probably take very long until somebody of the possible "target groups" dies. I don't think the Heir is going to cause "havoc", unless he/she remains "unused" until some really late Day (but then, again, that really can't happen, as at least some Gifted/Wolf would be dead by then for sure). Otherwise, it will be just either a helpful thing, or it will be like having four Wolves in the first place.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil

[Thinlómien]

The Heir is going to cause a bit of havoc in this game. If we're exceptionally lucky the first special player to die will be the Hunter in taking down a wolf.I was thinking the same and actually, we don't have to be really worried about lynching gifteds toDay, which is a blessing because on Day1 it's especially difficult to tell a jumpy gifted from a wolf.

Now this makes me actually think whether the hunter should come out and we should lynch him/her and s/he could have a shot at a wolf and we could have another hunter and thus get the advantage of having the heir on our side as the new hunter.

Let's see...
- if we lynch an ordo toDay, we lose an ordo
- if we lynch a wolf toDay, we also lose an ordo (since we lose the heir to the evil side)
- if we lynch a gifted toDay, we also lose an ordo (since we lose the heir in exchange for the gifted)

So in any case, we lose an ordo toDay. So is it all the same who we lynch?

No, there are minor differences:
- if we lynch an ordo, the heir's power is still unused and in case the wolves kill a gifted next Night, we only lose an ordo instead of a gifted.
- if we lynch a wolf, we can analyse their interactions with people and try to figure out who are the two other original wolves.
- if we lynch a gifted, we can make sure the heir advantage doesn't go to the wolves.

Which is the wisest course? I'm not sure, but it seems like we can't avoid disadvantages toDay, which kind of sucks. But I guess it's the same for the other side...? Maybe we should ignore the whole heir.

Unless it really makes sense to lynch the hunter. Shasta, what are the actual details of the hunter's role? Does s/he take also innocents with her/him if s/he dies during the Day?

'Cos if s/he doesn't, it's worth a shot lynching her/him toDay...


edit: xed with Inzil and Legate

[Thinlómien]

Oh and as for my "suspicions" of Elron, I said she makes the newbie wolf mistake of being jumpy but I omitted on purpose the fact that it hardly equals here being a wolf as many newbie ordos are jumpy as well. Given that Nerwen was already putting pressure on her, I figured that if I put a bit more, we might see some interesting reactions that would reveal stuff about her. Unfortunately, Elron's reactions don't tell me much. Yes, she got more nervous so she could be a wolf, but on the other hand, she didn't turn hysteric which a newbie wolf could do in such a situation. So I'm afraid I didn't learn much and to repeat, I don't find Elron particularily suspicious while not particularily innocent either.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

As per usual in games I host, the Hunter is logical (kills their target if lynched, only kills their target if their target is evil if nightkilled) and the Ranger can self-protect once.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I would like to actually start getting some info as to whom I might vote, but there's been rather quiet today this far. Okay, so let me see:

Wilwa - no info
Lottie - one remark about possible relations of Inzil and LRH, seeming sort of innocent-ish to me, but nothing much in the end, really
Boro - no info
Sally - no info
Nerwen - a bit of chatter here and there, but nothing of substance. Possibly a bit of pressing on the LRH thing, but it seems more like she considered it fun all the time...
Elronhubbard - actually funny enough, being a newbie but posting basically the most. In any case, gets a newbie pass today, but even otherwise does not seem any suspicious straightaway.
Eomer - nothing much, a few remarks. If I was supposed to say from whom I am getting bad vibes, it is him, but it is simply the feeling and nothing more - so that means nothing.
Greenie - basically nothing
Inzil - attempt to engage in dialogue, but not really standing out in one way or another
Nogrod - no info
Lommy - tries to be active, in contrary to many others, and at least gives some opinions and such. I'd grant her pass just for that.
Legate - that's me
Nessa - nothing

So is there any idea whom I want to lynch today? No. No idea at all. What's wrong, folks?

Okay, it's of course likely that at least we could expect some Americans starting to come later, but for us Europeans, it might well be at the time when we are asleep already. I am really not going to wake up around 5 AM to vote, sorry...

If it goes like this, it might be actually the first time in my life when I will vote absolutely randomly out of like ten people. Great! (On the other hand, maybe with the Heir, it's the best of all games to do it...)

I'm actually wondering if some people, like Lommy said was her case, do actually even know that the game is running...

[Nogrod]

So it's finally on...

I kind of like Lommy's bold idea of removing the heir from the equation from the very beginning. But as the hunter will take anyone with her/him if lynched we (s/he) should be very careful with that option. Looked at from the "safety POV" it should be the ranger then (knowingly lynching the seer on D1 just sounds such bad :().

The pros & cons as I see them.

For:

If we lynch fex. the ranger toDay the heir will take the place of the ranger and there is no fear of the heir going to the dark side anymore and we have the ranger still - so we kind of start from scratch without the fear of an extra-unknown wolf popping up from somewhere - the mid-game turned wolves are the hardest to find out.

We can not lynch a wolf toDay (in a sense of lessening their numbers) so we're basically facing a one person reduction from our side anyway, whoever we lynch.

Against:

The ranger probably doesn't like the idea... :rolleyes: and we'd need enough votes to rally around the idea - and we Europeans will not be around the last hours before the DL (6AM in Finland).

Maybe we should just see how it goes and not make a mountain out of a molehill?


Any thoughts?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

As for what Lommy said, interesting suggestion of course, though given what Shasta said about the Hunter taking with him/her whoever dies, not sure if it's very advantageous, or even more dangerous than safe...

Myself, I'd at least prefer keeping the Heir as a "backup", like I said before, in case we managed to lynch a Gifted toDay, or even if we e.g. lynched an ordo and the WWs killed a Gifted at Night (which is not so unlikely scenario to happen, I think). Of course, like Lommy said, if we really lynched e.g. a Hunter now, we'd be sure that the Wolves don't use the Heir to their advantage. But then again, imagine if we lynch a Hunter and he kills the Seer...

EDIT: x-ed with Nogger. Yay!!!

[Loslote]

Thank you, Lottie. Your support is greatly appreciated. :)

Now, now, let's be clear - I did not say either you nor Zil could not be a wolf. I said it was unlikely you were both wolves.

Unless you mean giving you a newbie pass, in which case, sure, I'll take credit for an accepted practise. :p;)

EDIT: xed with Nog and Legate

[Loslote]

As for the Hunter/Heir debates, I could go either way. The Hunter, at least, has a chance of killing a wolf, while we as a village really don't. And then we still have another Hunter, so it's not like we're losing a big opportunity by killing our Hunter straight off. But there's not much for the Hunter to go off of yet. We've had a really quiet Day so far, and the chances of hitting a wolf? Not that great.

Still, it's better than killing the Ranger, in my opinion. We don't gain much in that case. The most that can be said for that is we don't risk the Hunter killing the wrong person - and I think, if we're going to tread on the safe side, we may as well just lynch an ordo, so that if the wolves kill a Gifted overNight, we still have the Heir to even that out.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Still, it's better than killing the Ranger, in my opinion. We don't gain much in that case. The most that can be said for that is we don't risk the Hunter killing the wrong person - and I think, if we're going to tread on the safe side, we may as well just lynch an ordo, so that if the wolves kill a Gifted overNight, we still have the Heir to even that out.

Well more or less what I think. Now that I think of it, it is a sort of paradox that we kind of don't want to kill a Wolf toDay - because if we do, we lose a Day, while the WWs don't. I think it all comes down to luck, anyway. There are so many options... Personally, I would prefer to leave the thing open, even with the risk of adding one more Wolf, but in fact, even in such a case we won't really "lose" anything - not more than the one Day's vote, whereas on the contrary, if we planned some Gifted-to-Heir sacrifice, we risk losing some Gifted to the WWs e.g. at Night afterwards. But okay, whatever, I am open to discussing this... I think it will be interesting to hear what others think about it, in any case.

[Nogrod]

We are now on 9-1-3 (goodies - the heir - baddies).

If we lynch a wolf toDay (and the wolves make a kill during the Night), we'll wake up to D2 with 8-3.

If we lynch a gifted (and the wolves kill during the Night), we'll wake up to D2 with 8-3.

So it's the same result!

If we lynch an ordinary innocent (+ the wolves kill an ordo), it's 7-1-3 - and the heir is still up for grabs... but the longer it takes for the heir to take sides, the harder the heir is to spot if s/he ends up with the bad side.

[Loslote]

If we lynch an ordinary innocent (+ the wolves kill an ordo), it's 7-1-3 - and the heir is still up for grabs... but the longer it takes for the heir to take sides, the harder the heir is to spot if s/he ends up with the bad side.

Or, if the wolves kill a gifted overNight, it's 8-3, which is, again, the same. So...free for all, anybody?

[Nogrod]

Or, if the wolves kill a gifted overNight, it's 8-3, which is, again, the same. So...free for all, anybody?Yeah. :confused:

So maybe... like Legate speculated, the first random vote ever?

I hope to do better than that though. Back in an hour or so. Hopefully we have some new faces around then.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

We are now on 9-1-3 (goodies - the heir - baddies).

If we lynch a wolf toDay (and the wolves make a kill during the Night), we'll wake up to D2 with 8-3.

If we lynch a gifted (and the wolves kill during the Night), we'll wake up to D2 with 8-3.

So it's the same result!

If we lynch an ordinary innocent (+ the wolves kill an ordo), it's 7-1-3 - and the heir is still up for grabs... but the longer it takes for the heir to take sides, the harder the heir is to spot if s/he ends up with the bad side.

Well, I personally would put a bit more stress on what happens to the Gifteds in each scenario, resp. what options are open for them there. As I think in the game of this size the roles of the Gifteds can prove decisive. But I guess it comes down to whether we are going to be optimistic or pesimistic, anyway. But like I said, it'll be interesting to hear some other peoples' thoughts on this...

EDIT: x-ed with the two

[Loslote]

So maybe... like Legate speculated, the first random vote ever?

Random might be fun. Anyway, I shall return several hours before DL. Do make a whole lot of noise, won't you?

[Inziladun]

Hmm. Interesting idea about getting the Heir on the good side straight away. This is a strange case where we actually have a disincentive to get a wolf on Day 1, because, as Nog noted, we'll lose an innocent simultaneously if we do. But still, I'd hate to start things off with two innocents down going into toNight, and the odds are for that at the moment if we lynch the Hunter. And here's a question: say the Hunter takes a Gifted or a wolf with xem. Who does the Heir replace, the actual first one dead, which would be the Hunter?

x/d with all since # 41

[A Little Green]

Right, I'm back, and I hope to be a bit more productive for the rest of the Day though I have an essay to write for tomorrow and should really be concentrating on that..

Anyway, I'm totally confused by the whole of the Heir discussion - though I'm glad the topic was brought up. Not only because it got people talking, but because a Day when lynching a wolf is not, in fact, a desirable option, merits some discussion on strategy.

The speculation is important, but I'm concerned about the practice. What do we do? Hunter comes out, we vote him/her? Ranger comes out, same thing? (Is that fair? And is that even possible? What if our Hunter/Ranger doesn't show up until late, or doesn't show up at all?) Everybody votes randomly and we see what happens? (Total insanity!) We act as normally, ergo try to lynch a wolf and in all probability don't hit anyway? (Technically as insane as the previous option - with the exception that this would give us more to analyse for toMorrow - since if we actually do lynch a wolf we get another.. And besides, if you really believe somebody is a wolf (not sure if anyone does though) you wouldn't want to lynch them!) And to add - most of us Europeans will be going to bed in a little while, so whatever decision we make should preferably be made rather soon.

Basically, we don't want to kill a wolf until we have killed a Gifted, right? Agh, this drives me nuts.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Interesting discussion. One other option is for the Seer to reveal immediately: we gain information on one person, we get a new Seer, and with certainty no additional wolf.

[Inziladun]

The speculation is important, but I'm concerned about the practice. What do we do? Hunter comes out, we vote him/her? Ranger comes out, same thing? (Is that fair? And is that even possible? What if our Hunter/Ranger doesn't show up until late, or doesn't show up at all?) Everybody votes randomly and we see what happens? (Total insanity!) We act as normally, ergo try to lynch a wolf and in all probability don't hit anyway? (Technically as insane as the previous option - with the exception that this would give us more to analyse for toMorrow - since if we actually do lynch a wolf we get another

To add to the madness, there's the idea that vote analysis toMorrow could be complicated by the fact that wolves could very happily vote for each other toDay. Could we see them jumping on a bandwagon to lynch one of their own? :rolleyes:

x/d with Eomer

[wilwarin538]

Now this makes me actually think whether the hunter should come out and we should lynch him/her and s/he could have a shot at a wolf and we could have another hunter and thus get the advantage of having the heir on our side as the new hunter.


I actually think that's a good idea. I've always been of the opinion that protecting the Hunter is pointless, and that the Hunter should want to die (it's the whole point of their role afterall). So they come forward, we lynch them, maybe get lucky and they bring a wolf down with them, then the Heir becomes the new Hunter. Hunter fulfills their purpose and the Heir is on our side, it's a good situation. Otherwise if we lynch a wolf today than they get replaced, and it's just a waste of a Day. BUT, one bad case scenario is if we do the Hunter thing and then the wolves get the Seer tonight, then we won't have the Heir to take over that role anymore. Or if the Hunter is unlucky enough to take the Ranger or Seer down with them. Hmm....there are too many scenarios here.

Basically, we don't want to kill a wolf until we have killed a Gifted, right?

Uhm...yes? It makes this game sound so nuts. "We don't want to lynch a Wolf! We want to lynch our Hunter!" We've all lost out minds...:rolleyes:

And here's a question: say the Hunter takes a Gifted or a wolf with xem. Who does the Heir replace, the actual first one dead, which would be the Hunter?

I was wondering the same, but I'm going to venture that it would be the Hunter, since that is the one that we are actively killing.

edit: x'ed with Eomer (interesting idea, especially good one if the Seer has already managed to get a wolf) and Inzil (that's possible, if two of them don't really like the third, or if one simply starts to attract too much attention, they may back stab them knowing that they would just be getting someone else to replace them, and then they are free to kill the Gifteds without any worries, and they look good to the village for having voted a wolf)

[Nessa Telrunya]

To add to the madness, there's the idea that vote analysis toMorrow could be complicated by the fact that wolves could very happily vote for each other toDay. Could we see them jumping on a bandwagon to lynch one of their own? :rolleyes:

x/d with Eomer

I didn't think about that. The wolves could easily vote their own just to look innocent when the one we lynch turns out to be a wolf. AND they'll end up with a replacement because of the heir.

[Boromir88]

If I understand this correctly, in theory, if we actually lynched the Seer on Day 1 in this village, it wouldn't be such a grave loss considering the heir is like an understudy. And if we lynch a wolf we're in the same boat tomorrow as we are today.

As it is my commitment today is going to be pretty poor, apologies.

I'm on a semi-random basis thinking of voting Lommy, cus that post about her conversation with Greenie gives me a bad feeling.

Or Lottie because I would have liked the Spaceballs clip much better. :p

Guess that means I'm going with one of the Ls, but not el.

[Thinlómien]

Lynching the seer might actually make the most sense, because then we get one confirmed seer dream for sure instead of the normal gamble situation (seer survives with multiple dreams or takes them to the grave).

But WAIT!

I at least have quite forgotten about one rule. The role of the one whose role the heir takes up is not revealed so we actually want to lynch an ordo toDay and leave the Heir to become a gifted, because

- if we lynch a wolf toDay, it's practically all in vain because we don't know it was a wolf or a gifted, but the wolves know this so it doesn't limit their search for gifteds at all.

- if we lynch a revealed gifted toDay, there's no way to prove his/her claim was right which might prove problematical later in case there are contesting reveals.

Actually, toDay is disgustingly good Day for a false reveal so I think we should possibly have no reveals at all. Because in the worst case there's a false reveal and a real reveal and then we lynch the wolf who gets another life and the gifted dies next Night and is not brought back.

Argh. Basically, it doesn't make much sense to do anything until we lose a gifted. But the thing that sucks is that usually a quicker game benefits the village and we just waste time if we wait for the first gifted kill.

I feel like slapping somebody.

Anyhow, it does make sense to suspect and accuse toDay because at least then we have reactions, reactions and reactions...

[A Little Green]

So should we come up with a decision of some sort? Or at least decide if we need to decide anything in the first place? Meaning, do we act normally and see what happens, or do we lynch a Gifted? (Never thought the day would come that we seriously consider that! :eek: ) In short, does everybody vote according to their own judgement, or do we try to vote together for a Gifted?

Oh. Another thought. Which just might prove a problem if we decide to lynch a Gifted. The village decides which Gifted we want lynched and kindly ask him/her to pretty please come out and sacrifice themselves. A sniggering wolf sees his/her chance and reveals. Even if the real one did, too, we'd have no effing way, on a Day 1, to know which is the real Gifted. And should that be the case, we will end up either a) accidentally lynching the wolf instead of the Gifted, thus having the Heir go to the dark side and one of our Gifted revealed, or b) succeeding in lynching the Gifted, which would leave us with a new Gifted replacing the old one, and a known wolf for the next Day.

It's a risk, in short. It's of course as much of a risk to the wolves as it is to us, and whether they want to take the risk really depends on who our wolves are. But what do you think? Do the wolves consider getting the Heir to the evil side worth potentially losing a fellow?


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy

[Nessa Telrunya]

This is shaping up to where the heir harms us almost as much as they help :confused:

If we lynch a wolf, we know we got one, but that the heir also comes out as another.

If we lynch a gifted, we don't have to worry about an extra wolf, but if it's the seer, we can also look back on everything they've said today.

Killing the heir gets rid of our backup, but also the wolves' as well.

And killing an ordo we get... Nothing.

But it's all null if we go on and ask for a reveal, because there's no way to validate before voting toDay.

EDIT: x-ed with A Little Green

[Thinlómien]

I wish I was a cobbler in this game. It would be an awful lot of fun, much more fun than trying to think creatively but avoid confusing people. :rolleyes:

[Nessa Telrunya]

I wish I was a cobbler in this game. It would be an awful lot of fun, much more fun than trying to think creatively but avoid confusing people. :rolleyes:

I bet the cobbler would have a blast in this kind of game XD

[Nogrod]

I feel like slapping somebody.Exactly...

So if the role of the one the heir inherits is not revealed, then we probably should just shut up and stop planning any "gifted-lynch" for toDay.

Actually I'd say let's go as we normally go, forget the heir for the time being and then keep our thumbs up for the heir to join our ranks eventually.

You're right, it would be a parfect game for a cobbler. Thank God we don't have one.

[Inziladun]

I at least have quite forgotten about one rule. The role of the one whose role the heir takes up is not revealed

You're right! That's a pretty good argument against trying to lynch a revealed Gifted. So, what do we do? Looks to me like random voting would probably be just as good as anything else at this point. :rolleyes:

x/d with Nog

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Yes, fair points. The wolves could manipulate any deliberate gifted-lynch to their ends.

Ok, now I'm struggling to see anything beneficial we could do. :rolleyes:

[Nessa Telrunya]

Yes, fair points. The wolves could manipulate any deliberate gifted-lynch to their ends.

Ok, now I'm struggling to see anything beneficial we could do. :rolleyes:

I guess just random-vote? There's no win-win situation :/

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I at least have quite forgotten about one rule. The role of the one whose role the heir takes up is not revealed so we actually want to lynch an ordo toDay and leave the Heir to become a gifted, because

- if we lynch a wolf toDay, it's practically all in vain because we don't know it was a wolf or a gifted, but the wolves know this so it doesn't limit their search for gifteds at all.

- if we lynch a revealed gifted toDay, there's no way to prove his/her claim was right which might prove problematical later in case there are contesting reveals.

Oh crap. Okay. Right. That makes it clear at least for me. I want to go to sleep soon anyway, as I suddenly became really tired. The problem is that I don't have any idea whom to lynch, basically... even though in the last half a page or something, people became more communicative, there still isn't much. I am a bit uncomfortable perhaps with Boro, because he wants to lynch Lommy, who seems sensible to me. But that's like the best shot I have. Okay, I shall hang around for a little while yet, but I'm afraid I will just have to vote soon.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil, Eomer and Nessa

[Nogrod]

But what do you think? Do the wolves consider getting the Heir to the evil side worth potentially losing a fellow?Potentially, yes. But it would depend on whether they thought they'd gain something from the early exchange; if it would make some of them look good, or something like that.

They, like us, have to balance the real benefit (getting one more to one's side) and the desirability of the chance of it extending further in time (so how the ratio evolves) and thus becoming less probable - and meaning all the hard targets of the other side are still alive.


So we just vote toDay for the one we think / find / feel / sense / ... the most suspicious and then hope for the best. At least to me the time is coming to do something like that as it's almost twenty to 1AM and I have to set my alarm on 6AM. Hopefully some of you others staying around to the DL can make better educated votes.

A moment...


EDIT: X'd with Nessa & Leg
EDIT2: Oops, forgot the most important part of the sentence of the second paragraph... (beginning with " - and meaning all...")

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So, what do we do? Looks to me like random voting would probably be just as good as anything else at this point. :rolleyes:

Well not really random, it doesn't mean we should completely put it off! I would just formulate it the way that random vote does not matter this time as much as it does normally (if we lynch a Gifted, it's not a disaster). And at the same time it in a way matters a lot more... but we cannot know the result until we have it.

Honestly, if we knew which role the Heir gets when he/she "rises", then it'd be far better... not to complain against our brilliant Mod, but this is just a mess.

Anyway, I just thought of, once again, of course, the problem that in fact we don't really need so much to lynch a Wolf now... but then again, still better to lynch a Wolf than an Ordo... well possibly... okay, okay, enough speculation, the scenarios are so many... I will just vote.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog

[Nessa Telrunya]

If lynching a wolf doesn't help, and we can't find out who the gifteds are, perhaps we should go for the uncommunicative? As terrible as that sounds, we can at least keep those who are helpful. :/

Should I feel terrible for saying that? :eek:

[Nogrod]

Trying to rationalise my feelings right now...

Nerwen overdid whatever she thought she was doing. Yes it was early and she just toyed around as there was little else to do... I see. But still the way she made it (and she could have done something else as well, at least instead of her last ones when there was some beginnings of a discussion coming forwards). It looks a little like that famous "X toys around too carelessly, can't be a wolf" -trick.

Let me repeat: it looks A LITTLE like that.

Funnily I both share Legate's concern on Boro - and Boro's concern on Lommy, which in turn seems to be the reason for Legate to suspect Boro in the first place... :confused:

Then again, I'd hate to lose anyone of them on D1 voting that is this odd.

Needs to do a fast check on others.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If lynching a wolf doesn't help, and we can't find out who the gifteds are, perhaps we should go for the uncommunicative? As terrible as that sounds, we can at least keep those who are helpful. :/

Should I feel terrible for saying that? :eek:

Works for me. :smokin:

[Thinlómien]

If lynching a wolf doesn't help, and we can't find out who the gifteds are, perhaps we should go for the uncommunicative? As terrible as that sounds, we can at least keep those who are helpful. :/

Should I feel terrible for saying that? :eek:NOOO! Not the loud vs quiet debate!!!

[Nogrod]

Well then.

Ms. Hubbard will get the D1 free-pass, even if I have to say the slightly more serious suspicions on her in the early posting were not totally ungrounded. But anyway.

Also I don't remember Nessa that well - or how many games has she played. I'd say pass toDay as well, especially for her last post about the "uncommunicative" ones. *high fives*

Sally seems to be the most uncommunicative thus far but I wouldn't like to vote for someone who hasn't said anything but could as well say after I leave.

Greenie seems oddly out of the clue - not all of the time but several times. Which means nothing, actually (busy?). More or less the same goes with Wilwa (the same explanation as well?).

Careful ones? Eomer and Inzil, and naturally Legate. One of them should be a wolf...

Lottie makes sense but her activeness makes me a bit worried (all those funny YouTube -clips and that - like she wishes very much to be liked, that in case of choice she'd get the sympathy-points).

Checking back, I'm not that suspicious of Boro after all, as he said he's busy toDay. He's holding the brake on to be sure but maybe, just maybe, it's the RL.

Lommy speaks probably the most sense here. And still the way she started with that narrative about her not knowing the game had started (possibly willing to let us understand she had not received a PM to notify her) and the discussion with Greenie really looks like something I'd not think an innocent would do. Why to take that posture about your innocence in your first post of the game?

And then there is Nerwen who overdid it like I said in my previous post. And why all that wannabe-voting? Just to look like someone who doesn't care if someone suspects you for acting randomly? I mean it's not that good a joke after all... :confused:

A cigarette to collect my thoughts. And then a vote.

[Nogrod]

NOOO! Not the loud vs quiet debate!!!NOt seen that in a long time! :cool:

But hey, let's not debate it? :rolleyes:

[Thinlómien]

Lommy speaks probably the most sense here. And still the way she started with that narrative about her not knowing the game had started (possibly willing to let us understand she had not received a PM to notify her) and the discussion with Greenie really looks like something I'd not think an innocent would do. Why to take that posture about your innocence in your first post of the game?No, you misunderstand me. I wasn't around at all so I wouldn't have known the game had started even if I had got a role PM so I was just worried I had gotten a role PM which required Nightly action and missed Night1. So, the conversation doesn't prove (or disprove) my innocence/guilt. At most it suggests I'm not fellow wolves with Greenie. It was just a funny story to share and an example of the extent of my confusion...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Do you reckon there's a back-up heir, in case he/she chokes first? There must be. :p

[A Little Green]

It's past time for me to start seriously thinking about my vote. I think Nessa makes sense in suggesting we lynch someone uncommunicative. I'm not sure, though, if she meant 'uncommunicative' as in 'absent' (which might be considered unsportsmanlike) or 'uncommunicative' as in 'not productive' (which I'm more than fine with).

So let's see:

Won't vote for:
Elronhubbard - Won't vote her since it's her first game.
Nessa - Is this her first game too, or have I just not played with her before? Either way, I won't vote her.

The two I have some kind of moral dilemma with:
Sally - Absent; wouldn't like to vote her until she shows up. Did she say something about internet problems?
Nerwen - Can't say she's been productive, but to be fair, she was around at the time of Day when nothing productive could really be said.

And the rest have all been posting on topic, at least a little, or a lot in some cases, and whether I agree with what they say or not I have nothing really to say about their possible alignments. In sum, all sensible and cute and I don't want to vote any one of them.
Wilwa
Lottie
Lommy
Boro
Eomer
Inzil
Nogrod
Legate

So basically, I don't want to vote anyone. I would love to reread but it's outrageously late and I seriously need some sleep.

For the record, I hate this deadline.


EDIT: x-ed since Lommie's epic NOOOOOOOOOOO! <3

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, a fine mess we're in, Mr Baggins, and no mistake.

++LEGATE

Gotta kill someone, right? Bloodlust to sate, and all that. :smokin:

[satansaloser2005]

Sally - Absent; wouldn't like to vote her until she shows up. Did she say something about internet problems?

More like no internet at all. The only way I can get online? My blackberry.

I'm on now though, and I'll do what I can while I'm here (at my mum's doing laundry).

[Thinlómien]

Wilwa - under the reindeer. Quite honestly no idea but more positive than negative vibes, maybe.
Lottie - active and helpful but maybe even too nice as Nog said.
Boro - I don't remember anything he said except that he suspects me for some vague reasons. No good, Mr88, my bororadar doesn't flash innocent - but not guilty either, given your inactivity this far.
Sally - hasn't been around, or...?
Nerwen - weird and overtly bantery and slightly aggressive. Err???
Elronhubbard - kind of touchy, but maybe we should give her the newbie pass.
Eomer - sneaky but maybe more innocent than guilty.
Greenie - no read. Seems slightly confused but eager to make a point.
Inzil - funny (in the ordinary sense of the word). But that's it, mostly.
Nogrod - philosophering all around in a slightly artificial manner. Makes me raise my eyebrows a bit.
Legate - philosophering around in sort of "I have already given up" manner. Not sure what to make of it.
Nessa - chirpy. Sort of tries to make people like her? Anyway I'd be sad to see her go before I have had enough time to study her and save the data in my werewolf lorebook for next time we play together. ;)

Summa summarum: I don't seem to be suspecting anybody. Tough luck, especially as I'd prefer to vote and be gone in half an hour.


edit: xed with everyone

[A Little Green]

Greenie seems oddly out of the clue - not all of the time but several times. Which means nothing, actually (busy?).Well, your observation is pretty justified since I am currently both clueless and busy. :rolleyes:

Also, Eomer? Why Legate? Or, is there a reason other than that we gotta kill someone?


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen - Can't say she's been productive, but to be fair, she was around at the time of Day when nothing productive could really be said.Disagree. She could have started the discussion about the heir, for example, like I did only a few hours later and with just as little material, but she didn't. (And I hope this does not look like I'm hypocritically underlining my own productivity because it's more like meant to demonstrate Nerwen's "laziness" and this was the first example that occurred to me.)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I simply see more of a wolvish look in his posts. Nothing substantial, though. Or maybe I'm subconsciously detecting a Hunter-vibe in him.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That's pretty much the only good thing we can do, actually. All, set your Hunter-detectors on full blast; we'll kill him or her now and take the small chance that we'll be one wolf down tomorrow.

But how do we catch a Hunter? Enkhuizer Almanak states that hunters have slightly pointed tongues, a professional grasp of dramatic irony, and a penchant for slivovitsj uncommon in wolves.

But Sinterklaas presents are usually pretty cheap and so may be unreliable.

G'night.

[Thinlómien]

++Nerwen

Has been very weird and slightly unconstructive.

Plus early Nerwen lynch is damage control regardless of her role because she's always the agonizing questionmark in the endgame and often a wolf. :rolleyes:

Okay, that was probably one of my least reasoned votes in recent ww history. My apologies for that, but I really need to go to bed and get done with my remaining 20 pages of history.

Good night!


edit: xed with Eomer

[Nogrod]

I was about to vote when the exchange between Lottie #26 and Zil #29 caught my eye. I spent a time pondering whether there is something or not...
Check it with keener eyes (too late now for me).

I do hate the DL as well...

Blah. Between the messing around and not taking the initiative vs. trying to look pleasing and involved, I'll pick the pleasing one. That's at least a reason to vote and I need to go to sleep now.

++ Lottie


EDIT: X'd with the last few on the previous page

[Loslote]

Totally Innocent:
Lottie

Basically Innocent:
Nessa (her contributions look geniune)
Eomer (for once, he's not looking suspicious to me)
Boro (I don't see anything suspicious yet)
Lommy (she comes off as rather innocent so far)

Entirely Unsure:
Zil (I can either tell his role perfectly, or I can't tell it at all)
Nog (I don't particularly trust him, but I don't particularly suspect him, either)
Legate (he posts a lot, but I can't seem to get a read on him from that)
Greenie (after I finished the list, I realized I'd totally forgotten her - and that about sums it up)

No Clue Due To Quietness:
Wilwa
Sally

o.O:
Nerwen (the tone of her posts feels...off)
Elronhubbard (twitchy and jumpy)

And, as Elra gets the famous newbie pass, my vote is likely to go to Nerwen thus far...although, I do still have five hours, so hopefully I'll get a bit more to go on.

EDIT: xed with an Eomer, a Lommy, and a Nog

[satansaloser2005]

I think Lottie's being a tad unfair, saying I should be lynched right off the bat... Just because I'm new and different, that doesn't mean I'm evil.

Not that I'm asking for hugs and cake (or death! erm, I mean, what?)...I will happily settle for a wary tolerance.

Cake? Yes please. As long as it's not Sally cake. That would make a sad (but of course tasty) Sally. :/

Also, she's totally kidding (at least so far), so don't fret, my precious.

She said everyone should be (except herself and Shasta). Your failure to notice this speaks of a guilty conscience, young Elra. Clearly, you ought to be lynched.
÷÷Elra÷÷

Actually, this isn't a terribly bad catch (except for again, kidding). Let's remember, kids, to NOT GIVE THE NEWBIES A BLOODY PASS. Well, for now, yes, of course, because otherwise we'll never actually get to play with her, but not forever.

The only thing that remains, really, is to think of a wolf-name for her.

Any objections to Wolfronhubbard?

I like Old Wolfer Hubbard myself. ^_^

The Heir is going to cause a bit of havoc in this game. If we're exceptionally lucky the first special player to die will be the Hunter in taking down a wolf.

If only we could be so lucky....but I think, given our recent luck as villagers, that isn't very likely to happen.

Also, I'm not voting for Dun today, because....well, you just have to keep around the guy with the Harry Potter references (if only because I'm not around to make them myself, boohoo).


Erm, I have to vote now, don't I? Rats. I'll re-read and be back with a decision (and hopefully a list). I'm sorry I can't be of more use; I'll try my best, but I can't promise much alas. :(

[satansaloser2005]

And, as Elra gets the famous newbie pass, my vote is likely to go to Nerwen thus far...although, I do still have five hours, so hopefully I'll get a bit more to go on.

Four hours, princess. You have four hours.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I think the discussion is getting better lately, but now I really need to go to sleep.

I will go with the person I have the "best" reasons to suspect still as I said, that be

++Boro

Good Night. Sleeping village, cockerel's cry, soft wind blowing in the trees, peace of mind, feel at ease...

EDIT: x-ed with like five people, great...

[A Little Green]

Bed-time.

++ Eomer

I promise an explanation toMorrow if I'm still alive. (Oh, don't I hate it when other people do this! :rolleyes:)


EDIT: x-ed with Leggings

[Loslote]

Four hours, princess. You have four hours.

Still. Plenty of time, and I'll be here for quite a bit of it.

Not this particular hour or so, though. Play nice and talk lots, mkay?

[satansaloser2005]

++Shady She-Penguin


Because she seems to me like she is, and I don't think her vote's legit.

That's probably it for me, kids. I may or may not check the thread, but I likely won't post unless I see something I really need to reply to, so if you have something you want to say to me and you want me to actually reply, put my name all in caps; I'll keep an eye out so that I know which bits of the thread are urgent and which aren't.


Also, I'm making this announcement/offer now. If you must, kill me. I'm an ordo and I won't be of much use anyway. No, seriously, no tricks. I don't want to be killed, but rather me than a gifted (although of course if you lynch me and it's not a tie you're going to lose, going by statistics anyway, so do make sure to read up on what happens in a tie, as I don't have time to do so). Anyway, yeah. If all else fails, I'm expendable. I won't be offended if I'm jumped on to save someone else; the village comes first, my own survival second, especially when I won't be around much.

Also also, I will NOT be quoting posts, as my data plan is rubbish and I'll be typing up posts on Abigail and then copy pasting to my blackberry. I don't want to misquote a post, which means I'm not going to quote at all (unless I get on at work, which is highly unlikely because I don't like to fiddle around while I'm there). I'll of course reference which post number I'm talking about (as I can of course look at my cell and my computer at the same time) but that'll likely be it. Meep.

Again, I'm sincerely sorry for my lack of participation, and I'll do my best to service the village before either our victory or my demise (though of course hopefully the former).


EDIT: x'd since my last

[satansaloser2005]

That's it. I'm gone. I'll check my phone at an hour before DL, and then again at about ten before, but otherwise I won't be around. Gah, I feel awful. :(

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm quite enjoying watching this, by the way. :Merisu:

In the case of a tie, the last person who receives the most votes is lynched.

[Nerwen]

Just a note; my poking at Elra was in part a joke, because I was getting bored with no-one around, and in part a test. I'm leaning slightly towards "wolf", actually, from her reaction, though it's hard to be sure.

Lommy's jumping on me for this looks... a little dubious from here. Otherwise seems all right, though, so maybe she's just hunting for a reason for a Day One vote.

This is a reach, though:
Plus early Nerwen lynch is damage control regardless of her role
Really, I'm insulted by that one. Damage control for whom?

...Anyway, I'm trying to sort out this 'Heir" business myself. I wonder, can we assume that the wolves won't try to save the first of their number to get into trouble? (But then, if they wanted to, they could do it pretty safely, as the role won't be revealed.)

EDIT:X'd with many.

[Nerwen]

I've really only had time to give this thread a once-over, but as it is my general impression that there is an odd atmosphere in this village. A sort of almost cosy feel, at least with certain players, like a meeting of the Tol-in-Gaurhoth Mutual Appreciation Society.

X: Y can't be a wolf because of such-and-such. Tea?

Y: Thanks, X, don't mind if I do! Your way of arguing that I can't be a wolf shows that you, too, must be innocent. Mind if I take the last jam scone? Delicious! Is this your own recipe?

Odd. I mean, people– wolves and innocents– are usually a bit reluctant to commit themselves too much on Day One. Another result of the Heir business? (That is, less reason to fear being tarred by association.)

[Nessa Telrunya]

I've really only had time to give this thread a once-over, but as it is my general impression that there is an odd atmosphere in this village. A sort of almost cosy feel, at least with certain players, like a meeting of the Tol-in-Gaurhoth Mutual Appreciation Society.

X: Y can't be a wolf because of such-and-such. Tea?

Y: Thanks, X, don't mind if I do! Your way of arguing that I can't be a wolf shows that you, too, must be innocent. Mind if I take the last jam scone? Delicious! Is this your own recipe?

Odd. I mean, people– wolves and innocents– are usually a bit reluctant to commit themselves too much on Day One. Another result of the Heir business? (That is, less reason to fear being tarred by association.)

Everyone's probably trying to be nice because with the heir, the odds don't really change no matter who you kill, and we all want to feel safe in a game environment like this.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On a modly note, I approve of Nessa's signature. That is all.

(We just did Romeo and Juliet.)

[Loslote]

Really, I'm insulted by that one. Damage control for whom?

Really? That offended you? I assumed it was a compliment - acknowledging that you are a deadly WW player and all that. For that matter, I'm rather confused about you - as a wolf, you are quite impossible to catch, so I don't know that my suspicions can really add up to anything at all.

I think I'll go read through Nog's posts again...

[Inziladun]

Ok, so it's not especially helpful that we can't know the role of who the Heir replaces.
Back to the usual Day 1 dodgy-poster hunting then.

Let's see, what's the vote tally at the moment?

Eomer--> Legate (1)

Lommy--> Nerwen (1)

Nog--> Lottie (1)

Legate--> Boro (1)

Greenie--> Eomer (1)

Sally--> Lommy (1)

Six votes and all for different people? You've got to be kidding. :rolleyes:

[Boromir88]

Six votes and all for different people? You've got to be kidding. :rolleyes:

Shall I make it 7 for 7 or be kind and keep the list as is?

[Inziladun]

Shall I make it 7 for 7 or be kind and keep the list as is?

That's up to you. I wonder if an 13-way tie has ever happened before? ;)

[Loslote]

After looking at Nog some, I've added another suspect to my 'o.O' category. Some of what he says (killing the Ranger, for example) seems almost silly. It's possibly one of the worst options - it doesn't give us a shot at a wolf (Hunter), it doesn't give us any information to go on (wolf) and it doesn't leave us the Heir in case of a Gifted kill overNight (ordo). Then he talks about statistics for a couple of posts before making several posts that mostly just agree with other people. His next post isn't too bad - it speculates on whether or not the wolves would try to kill off one of their own in exchange for the Heir. He then suspects Nerwen, but qualifies it with

it looks A LITTLE like that

and agrees with Legate's slight suspicion of Boro, which he rescinds in the next post (honestly, not that alarming to me). That post is a list, where he's somewhat neutral on everyone. Next is a banter post about the quiet/loud debates, before he votes for me, based on an early interacted between me and Zil where I say that I don't think Zil and Elra are packmates and Zil says that I look more innocent because of it. Admittedly there's not much to go on, but you'd think he'd go with one of the people he'd mentioned suspicion of beforehand. *shrugs*

Anyway, Nog has shot up to the top of my suspect list. If it weren't that we're too spread out already, I'd like to vote him, so if anyone else wants to, as well, I probably would.

Pre-Edit: I've xed since Zil's vote tally

[wilwarin538]

Sorry I haven't been around, this managed to start right at the beginning of my exam time, so I've been studying all day. I should be around more on Day 2 if I'm likely, since my hardest exam will be done by then. But overall my participation in this game won't be awesome.

This Heir thing still makes little sense to me. Best case scenario seems to be we lynch someone randomly toDay and hope for the best (which would be, what, an ordo? any volunteers? :rolleyes:), and then perhaps the Wolves will get the Hunter toNight. That would be nice because than the there's no risk of him taking down an innocent and then the Heir would definitely be on our side. But that's a lot of luck.

I guess I may just end up voting randomly, though I won't add another name into the mix.

x'ed with Lottie

[Boromir88]

Anyway, Nog has shot up to the top of my suspect list. If it weren't that we're too spread out already, I'd like to vote him, so if anyone else wants to, as well, I probably would.


Simply going by the read I'm getting on your posts, I'm more willing to trust you than Nog at this point. But I don't think that in and of itself is enough for me to cast a vote for Nog today.

[wilwarin538]

Ugh, I have to go. I honestly haven't the slightest idea who to vote for. So this is totally random. Sorry!

++Lottie

[Inziladun]

Next is a banter post about the quiet/loud debates, before he votes for me, based on an early interacted between me and Zil where I say that I don't think Zil and Elra are packmates and Zil says that I look more innocent because of it. Admittedly there's not much to go on, but you'd think he'd go with one of the people he'd mentioned suspicion of beforehand. *shrugs*

I might go for Nog. It is funny how he didn't really say just why that "caught his eye". And he tends to be difficult for me to get a handle on as well.

Then again, I could consider Nerwen also. I want to trust Lommy at this point, since she's the one who reminded us about the rule regarding the Heir's new role not being revealed. That would seem to have been counterproductive for a wolf to have brought up.

[Loslote]

I might go for Nog. It is funny how he didn't really say just why that "caught his eye". And he tends to be difficult for me to get a handle on as well.

Then again, I could consider Nerwen also. I want to trust Lommy at this point, since she's the one who reminded us about the rule regarding the Heir's new role not being revealed. That would seem to have been counterproductive for a wolf to have brought up.

If it weren't for the fact that this is exactly what I'm thinking right now, I'd almost say your tone reminds me of wolf!you again. Not saying I suspect you - not really - I'm just saying that I'm leaning in that direction...quite unfortunate, given that you're saying exactly the same things I'm thinking.

My brain is being troublesome again today, isn't it? :rolleyes:

[Nessa Telrunya]

Well, I figure, with the votes coming up, I may as well do an analysis. Even if the material is meager...:rolleyes:

Wilwa-Has only posted once, but there was some real substance to what she was saying. I don't feel a lot of wolfy vibes right now, but that may be because she's been pretty quiet. She did a random vote of Lommie, but it's understandable when exams limit WW time.

Lottie-Started off by posting a lot of Youtube vids, and saying nearly everyone should be lynched. But that only makes sense, because she was the first poster, and it was pretty quiet. Then she adds some input on -Elronhubbard's possible wolf name, and thinks aloud about the possiblity of Inzil being a possible packmate. Then retraces her steps to disprove what had just been stated; an altogether confusing post, but maybe that's just me. She then goes on to suggest a free for all, after the discussion of sacrificing the Hunter, and later makes an analysis, which can be good for evidence later.

Boro-Has posted thinking about voting for Lommy based on the conversation with Greenie, which was about... If the game had started?

Sally-Conversed a bit, then voted for Lommy, based on a feeling, and the vote she'd done.

Nerwen-Started off with the regular banter, but then seemed to go out to provoke Elronhubbard. Could be either wolf putting ordo out to the dogs based on the usual newbie nervousness, or just livening things up. The discussion about a possible wolf name went on for a while, probably a bit longer than I would've liked, had I been the subject. All over the place in her posts, and already has a vote, but this is apparently normal :rolleyes:

Elronhubbard-I understand the concern about people joking about lynching her, but it sounded a bit defensive. I don't really get bad feelings from her now, though.

Eomer-Has had some helpful input, but never really gave a reason for voting Leggy. :/

Greenie-Voted Eomer promising a reason tomorrow. Talked about possible lynching of a gifted, but then backed off when saying a wolf could easily take advantage. Not sure here.

Inzil-Began by siding with Elronhubbard. We may need to remember this, just in case, but then he showed a bit of favor for random voting.

Nogrod-Showed weird support of lynching the ranger to get rid of the heir, but wouldn't the hunter make more sense? He definitely seems in favor of a Nerwen lynch, based on her earlier interactions, but then votes Lottie because of apparently trying to look pleasing. Although he did express earlier concern, but he's been all over the place.

Lommy-Started out with a nice little story and seems to be trying to look good. But I can't vote based on that, because at least there's a lot of substance to work with on her.

Legate-Made a nice list at the beginning, but there wasn't really that much to it. Said there were some bad vibes from Boro, then later votes him as well. Consistent, if nothing else.

Nessa-Is me. And in response to some other posts, I have played before, it's just been awhile. :D Newbie pass would be a little unfair.

I'll stick around for a bit longer, in case anything interesting happens.For now, I'm suspicious of Nogrod, Eomer, and Nerwen based on what I said above. But are we trying to vote a wolf? I mean, no matter who gets lynched, unless it's an ordo, we don't find out their role because of the heir, and that won't get out of the way until we get rid of multiple gifteds. Yet, is getting rid of the nonwolves worth finding out a role? Or possibly sending the wolves a replacement?

[Loslote]

Wilwa-Has only posted once, but there was some real substance to what she was saying. I don't feel a lot of wolfy vibes right now, but that may be because she's been pretty quiet. She did a random vote of Lommie, but it's understandable when exams limit WW time.

Just thought I'd point out - she voted me, not Lommy. ;)

Otherwise, your participation, plus general tone, does make me inclinded to trust you. And by trust you, I mean not suspect you.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Just thought I'd point out - she voted me, not Lommy. ;)

Otherwise, your participation, plus general tone, does make me inclinded to trust you. And by trust you, I mean not suspect you.

Thanks for pointing that out. Must've been the similar nicknames :eek:

I'm trying to get in as much participation as possible. This particular game really calls for it. When we don't even know if we're trying to vote for a wolf, what with the heir and all, it's sort of important to at least have something to work with on each person.

[Inziladun]

If it weren't for the fact that this is exactly what I'm thinking right now, I'd almost say your tone reminds me of wolf!you again. Not saying I suspect you - not really - I'm just saying that I'm leaning in that direction...quite unfortunate, given that you're saying exactly the same things I'm thinking.

My brain is being troublesome again today, isn't it? :rolleyes:

Troublesome? Nah. Just Lottie, who I tend to think is more likely than not to be innocent.

I'll stick around for a bit longer, in case anything interesting happens.For now, I'm suspicious of Nogrod, Eomer, and Nerwen based on what I said above. But are we trying to vote a wolf? I mean, no matter who gets lynched, unless it's an ordo, we don't find out their role because of the heir, and that won't get out of the way until we get rid of multiple gifteds. Yet, is getting rid of the nonwolves worth finding out a role? Or possibly sending the wolves a replacement?

Voting for the suspicious is the best bet now, since we won't know whose role the Heir takes.

Speaking of which....

I have some other things to do now, so it's time to vote.

I think I'm going with

++Nerwen

Like I said, I think Lommy looks fairly innocent, and there's the added appeal of not adding another name to the mix. I'm not as keen on voting any of the others who already have votes.

x/d with Lottie and Nessa

[Nessa Telrunya]

It's getting a bit late, and I'd love to stay until DL, but the fatigue is getting me :( So I need to go ahead and vote.

++Nerwen If only because I don't understand what she'd get out of provoking Elronhubbard, and it's really a suspicious move to me, even if it's on Day 1.

[Nerwen]

Ha! I bet the wolves are Zil, Nessa and Elra.

Oh, well, I won't bother trying to save myself, as it might end up just creating a tie.

[Loslote]

Eomer--> Legate
Lommy--> Nerwen
Nog--> Lottie
Legate--> Boro
Greenie--> Eomer
Sally--> Lommy
Vanilwuffin--> Lottie (2)
Zil--> Nerwen
Nessa--> Nerwen (3)

Left to vote: Nerwen, Boro, Elronhubbard, and Lottie

I'm still all for a Nog lynch, if anyone else is around.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Boromir88]

Nessa-Is me. And in response to some other posts, I have played before, it's just been awhile. :D Newbie pass would be a little unfair.


Huh, interesting, but if you insist...

++Nessa

[Loslote]

Ha! I bet the wolves are Zil, Nessa and Elra.

Oh, well, I won't bother trying to save myself, as it might end up just creating a tie.

If there's a tie, last person to get the votes dies. Don't worry about making a tie.

EDIT: xed with Boro

[Nerwen]

Especially Nessa. That's a most evilly opportunistic vote there. Plus, I explained my reasons for poking at Elra quite clearly.

Now listen, people: unless the wolves get a gifted toNight, you will be in exactly the same position toMorrow. So you will have to deal with that. I'm saying this in case anyone still thinks it's a good idea to try and lynch ordos.

EDIT:X'd with Lottie and Boro.

[Nerwen]

I'm still all for a Nog lynch, if anyone else is around.
I don't particularly like the look of him either, but since I can vote to save myself (sorry, I hadn't paid enough attention to the rules– very busy right now), I'll go with

++Nessa.

Yes, I know you haven't played for a while, Nessa, but like I said, that vote looked bad.

[satansaloser2005]

Well this interesting (and most definitely irksome). Harrumph. :/

[Loslote]

So my options are between letting Nerwen, who I don't really suspect, die, or tieing the vote (and thus killing) Nessa, who I also don't suspect. Give me a minute here. :rolleyes:

EDIT: xed with Sallycakes

[Loslote]

DL is in ten minutes, right?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

DL is in ten minutes, right?

Well, it was originally, but yesterday I changed it to be an hour and a half later, since I started Day an hour and a half late.

[Loslote]

Well, it was originally, but yesterday I changed it to be an hour and a half later, since I started Day an hour and a half late.

...brilliant. I'm off to look at Nerwen and Nessa, then.

[Loslote]

I don't see anything too horribly suspicious about Nerwen, especially her later posts. There's a possibility of Nessa being a *teensy* bit off, but I do *not* want her lynched toDay. :( I'll probably be back to vote closer to DL.

[elronds_daughter]

In slight explanation for my defensiveness earlier - I blame teh Real Lifes. It was early. My brain was fuzzy, having not gotten its coffee yet.

Also, RL is to blame for my absence from then 'til now. Terribly busy afternoon/evening. But now that I'm as caught up as I can be...

++ Nerwen

She seems shady(est) to me at the moment. (Terribly sorry if I'm wrong.)

[Loslote]

In slight explanation for my defensiveness earlier - I blame teh Real Lifes. It was early. My brain was fuzzy, having not gotten its coffee yet.

Also, RL is to blame for my absence from then 'til now. Terribly busy afternoon/evening. But now that I'm as caught up as I can be...

[b]++ Nerwen[/b*]

She seems shady(est) to me at the moment. (Terribly sorry if I'm wrong.)

Well. I don't have to choose anymore, at least. I'm not tremendously pleased by this, but. :rolleyes: As there's really no way to affect the vote now, I'm just going to go with

++Nog

because he looks worst to me.

[Nerwen]

Well. I don't have to choose anymore, at least. I'm not tremendously pleased by this, but. :rolleyes: As there's really no way to affect the vote now, I'm just going to go with

++Nog

because he looks worst to me.
Fair enough, but I think the Seer should consider checking out that trio I mentioned before.

Now that Elra's voted for me, it's not likely they're all three wolves– I mean, if she's a cub, her packmates would probably have told her, "hey, let's not all three vote for the same person".

Her vote's bad though, even for a newbie– she votes me for what? Poking at her earlier? And yet in the same breath she admits she was defensive!

Now, Nessa was of course in danger then– could Elra have been trying to save her?

I realise I'm not sure whether my role will be revealed on death or not, but anyway all of you who play with me regularly should know you'd never have got me this easily were I a wolf, so I think you may as well regard me as a known innocent toMorrow anyway. That should help.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Deadline. Stop posting.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I lent my book out and it hasn't come back yet. I'll edit the scene in as soon as I get it back.

Nerwen was lynched. She was an ordo. And lynching Nerwen is not the way to get on Shasta's good side. :p

Night 2 begins.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Wolf 1: Why are we chasing down this ring, again?

Wolf 2: ...Sauron told us to?

Wolf 3: And we're getting paid? In hobbit meat?

Wolf 1: Oh yeah. So who did we decide had it?

Sally: [skipping by] Ring around the rosie, a pocket full of posies, insert joyous innocent laughter here etc...

Wolf 2: [Shrugs] I guess she's as good a target as any.

Wolf 3: So let's chomp her then?

Wolf 1: Sounds good.

Sally: And now for another rendition of - heeeeey, you guys aren't a captive audience at all! I CALL SHENANIGANS!

Wolf 3: Could you call for a waiter while you're at it? We'd like our check.

------------------

Sally has been eaten. She was an ordo.

Day 2 begins.

[Loslote]

I didn't have time to put together a list of youtube links, so you'll have to settle for this one (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ordo Sally, eh? That means the heir-related craziness of yesterday shall continue. :cool:

Now, the only person the wolves really don't want to kill is the guardian because then a replacement jumps straight into the same place.

However, they definitely want to kill the Seer, even though another will appear, because otherwise - as has happened - our seer has info on (probably) two people. Just hope dreams weren't spent on Nerwen or Sally.

Will check out Sally later, to see what the wolves spotted; participation will be a bit intermittent while I'm at work.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Just remember, Lottie, "NO ONE EXPECTS THE SPANISH INQUISITION!". :p

Ha! Couldn't watch those videos until last night - funny stuff. I would say, however, that I always expect the Spanish inquisition. :p

Didn't really understand my video but I'm sure it was inappropriate. ;)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, here we go - we are not much further than yesterDay, basically the same question remains. I think it's a matter of time, but the Wolves have effectively won a day, because once again, if we lynch one of them now, he/she would be replaced...

Now, the only person the wolves really don't want to kill is the guardian because then a replacement jumps straight into the same place.

However, they definitely want to kill the Seer, even though another will appear, because otherwise - as has happened - our seer has info on (probably) two people. Just hope dreams weren't spent on Nerwen or Sally.
That's all rather self-evident. I also think that the WWs might try to avoid killing the Hunter, as it poses a threat to them with a replacement for the Hunter - which basically means theoretically, in the best case, trading two dead Gifteds for two dead Wolves (if both Hunters hit the target).

Will check out Sally later, to see what the wolves spotted; participation will be a bit intermittent while I'm at work.
Curiously, sally wasn't one of the most vocal players, for certain. Looking at her posts, I am somewhat doubtful about whether there was something that the WWs might have considered a sign of Giftedness (most of all, Seerishness). Let's see:

She said everyone should be (except herself and Shasta). Your failure to notice this speaks of a guilty conscience, young Elra. Clearly, you ought to be lynched.
÷÷Elra÷÷Actually, this isn't a terribly bad catch (except for again, kidding). Let's remember, kids, to NOT GIVE THE NEWBIES A BLOODY PASS. Well, for now, yes, of course, because otherwise we'll never actually get to play with her, but not forever.
If we go with the hypothesis that the WWs killed Sally because they thought she was the Seer, this one could perhaps be considered that: like a Seer speaking about a dreamed Wolf. But that would work only in case LRH was really a Wolf, and even then I think it's somewhat overstretched (the "kidding" remark and all... the Wolves might have seen it as an attempt to cover the Seer's trace, but well...).

Also, I'm not voting for Dun today, because....well, you just have to keep around the guy with the Harry Potter references (if only because I'm not around to make them myself, boohoo).
This is also one possibility, like that the WWs saw this as a Seerish remark about a dreamed innocent... but that's possibly even more random than the previous.

There is of course sally's vote for Lommy, but sally did not say anything outright Seerish to her vote:
Because she seems to me like she is, and I don't think her vote's legit.

And at last, this thing:
Also, I'm making this announcement/offer now. If you must, kill me. I'm an ordo and I won't be of much use anyway. No, seriously, no tricks. I don't want to be killed, but rather me than a gifted (although of course if you lynch me and it's not a tie you're going to lose, going by statistics anyway, so do make sure to read up on what happens in a tie, as I don't have time to do so). Anyway, yeah. If all else fails, I'm expendable. I won't be offended if I'm jumped on to save someone else; the village comes first, my own survival second, especially when I won't be around much.
I am really wondering about this one - so would this look to the WWs like sally being a Seer? If anything, a Hunter, I'd imagine, but would they really think that the Seer give herself up in such way, unless they thought she would be trying to bluff in such a way? But it seems a bit overstretched already. And then again, if they'd think sally was the Hunter, I really cannot think why would they kill her.

Summa summarum, if Ron Weasley Hubbard is a Wolf, or if Lommy is a Wolf, then it might be possible that the WWs would have thought "ha, Seer, and a dangerous one, let's get her!" But it is also possible that it was simply meant as a non-trace kill, as sally really hasn't been around much, which I find even somewhat more plausible (the question then rises, however, what would they get by a non-trace kill in a situation where nobody has any trace anyway). Or they are simply "sportish" and killed the one who asked for being lynched...

I didn't have time to put together a list of youtube links, so you'll have to settle for this one (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ).

"Due to copyright, the video cannot be showed in your country." Ah well.

[Thinlómien]

"Due to copyright, the video cannot be showed in your country." Ah well.I assure you, it was nothing worth seeing. :rolleyes:;)

I am really wondering about this one - so would this look to the WWs like sally being a Seer? If anything, a Hunter, I'd imagine, but would they really think that the Seer give herself up in such way, unless they thought she would be trying to bluff in such a way? But it seems a bit overstretched already. And then again, if they'd think sally was the Hunter, I really cannot think why would they kill her.You quote a passage where Sally claims to be an ordo and effectively suggest theories of the wolves considering her anything but that. That's incredibly funny, and makes you look innocent and confused because you're ignoring what seems to me by far the most viable option: the wolves believed what Sally said and decided to kill her so as to avoid killing gifteds (ie avoid the heir's power taking effect) and kind of throwing the ball back to us.

Which makes us have the ball. (Wow what a wonderful speech this is shaping to be! :D) I'm inclined to follow Nerwen's lead in what she said before she died: we're facing the same dilemma toDay as we faced yesterDay, so we had better accept the grim situation and start hunting wolves. Otherwise the wolves devour us while we wait them to hit the heir first. On the positive side, I think they can't try to avoid gifteds much longer either because basically all the gifteds become more dangerous for the evil side as the game proceeds.

Now I'm off to play Age of Empires II because I just feel like that. I'll be back in an hour or two anyway and then I'll have a proper look at yesterDay.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Ouch. Two ordos :(

Perhaps the wolves went for sally because of her Vote yesterDay?

[Thinlómien]

Really, I'm insulted by that one. Damage control for whom?My apologies, it was meant as a compliment on your wolfing skills and as a joke about you always being such an enigma in the end-game. If it offended, I'm sorry, I didn't mean it that way.

To be honest I don't know what sense voting Nerwen made - aren't weirdness and "unproductiveness" much more usual signs of ordoishness than of wolvishness? I think the voting reasons of everybody in the nerwagon (including myself) are silly, but so were mostly the reasons of other votes. I think the biggest dilemma regarding analysing yesterDay is whether we can use the votes as valid anything or not, because a big part of the village was thinking they might as well vote random...

Ps. Currently suspecting Zil (too happy, for example: "I wonder if an 13-way tie has ever happened before?") and Nog (somehow artificial, can't pharse it better).

[Inziladun]

Sorry about that, Nerwen. :rolleyes:

Curiously, sally wasn't one of the most vocal players, for certain. Looking at her posts, I am somewhat doubtful about whether there was something that the WWs might have considered a sign of Giftedness (most of all, Seerishness).

I think that's a reach. The things you cite as items that might interest the wolves would only have done so if we have an exceptionally jumpy or newbie pack. I'm inclined to think Lommy has the answer.

You quote a passage where Sally claims to be an ordo and effectively suggest theories of the wolves considering her anything but that. That's incredibly funny, and makes you look innocent and confused because you're ignoring what seems to me by far the most viable option: the wolves believed what Sally said and decided to kill her so as to avoid killing gifteds (ie avoid the heir's power taking effect) and kind of throwing the ball back to us.

Indeed. Sally pretty much begged them to kill her.

Ouch. Two ordos :(

Perhaps the wolves went for sally because of her Vote yesterDay?

Which would make Lommy a wolf. However, like I said, I doubt an experienced pack would have seen anything in what Sally said to have panicked them that she was a Seer.

To be honest I don't know what sense voting Nerwen made - aren't weirdness and "unproductiveness" much more usual signs of ordoishness than of wolvishness? I think the voting reasons of everybody in the nerwagon (including myself) are silly, but so were mostly the reasons of other votes. I think the biggest dilemma regarding analysing yesterDay is whether we can use the votes as valid anything or not, because a big part of the village was thinking they might as well vote random...

Well, I gave my reasons yesterDay. You're right in that the votes yesterDay were generally even more capricious than usual for Day 1.

Currently suspecting Zil (too happy, for example: "I wonder if an 13-way tie has ever happened before?") and Nog (somehow artificial, can't pharse it better).

I wasn't particularly happy, more bemused at the fact that the votes were so spread out.

[Loslote]

You quote a passage where Sally claims to be an ordo and effectively suggest theories of the wolves considering her anything but that. That's incredibly funny, and makes you look innocent and confused because you're ignoring what seems to me by far the most viable option: the wolves believed what Sally said and decided to kill her so as to avoid killing gifteds (ie avoid the heir's power taking effect) and kind of throwing the ball back to us.

I agree with this scenario - Sally's done the exact same thing before, and anyone who'd seen her do that (including, if I remember correctly, Nessa as well as the usual lot) would recognize that as a genuine offer. So the wolves, not wanting to hit a Gifted, go for the all but confirmed ordo.

Ps. Currently suspecting Zil (too happy, for example: "I wonder if an 13-way tie has ever happened before?") and Nog (somehow artificial, can't pharse it better).

Why are you saying everything I am thinking? :eek: :p

[Boromir88]

I will more or less have to vote randomly again today as I'm going to be swamped with busyness for the remainder of the week, as I'm needed to moderate for this academic/jeopardy-like tournament area schools are competing in.

So, with my apologies of apalling inactivity and to to the Master Mod. I may be on late may not...

++Lommy


To be honest I don't know what sense voting Nerwen made - aren't weirdness and "unproductiveness" much more usual signs of ordoishness than of wolvishness? I think the voting reasons of everybody in the nerwagon (including myself) are silly, but so were mostly the reasons of other votes. I think the biggest dilemma regarding analysing yesterDay is whether we can use the votes as valid anything or not, because a big part of the village was thinking they might as well vote random...


This logic just seems all too suspicious, and rather clever. Lommy's in fact pointing attention to the strange Nerwen votes, which she herself was a part of. It looks like an attempt to be fair and reasonable by drawing suspicion on something she did, in an attempt to exonerate herself from voting Nerwen.

[elronds_daughter]

I concur, Boro. Lommy and Legate are both looking a bit unfriendly to me at the moment... Legate mostly because of the completely fallible logic in trying to reason out why Sally got dead. Those kinds of reverse-psychology leaps are just plain weird. But, I may be reading too much into it. (Especially since Lommy herself pointed out how little sense Legate was making.)

But it's still entirely possible that I'm wrong on both accounts.

[Loslote]

This logic just seems all too suspicious, and rather clever. Lommy's in fact pointing attention to the strange Nerwen votes, which she herself was a part of. It looks like an attempt to be fair and reasonable by drawing suspicion on something she did, in an attempt to exonerate herself from voting Nerwen.

I don't really follow this. There's a bit of a jump - that is, we'd have to jump from "she brings up suspicions that could be used against herself" and then manage to make it to "she must be innocent". I don't think we'd make that jump, and I highly doubt Lommy would expect us to.

Legate mostly because of the completely fallible logic in trying to reason out why Sally got dead. Those kinds of reverse-psychology leaps are just plain weird. But, I may be reading too much into it. (Especially since Lommy herself pointed out how little sense Legate was making.)

And yet, I have a hard time seeing a wolf spend that much time talking about logic he did not use overNight. If he were a wolf, I imagine he'd touch on it, maybe hesitantly point to a possible wolf, but not go into it in quite that much detail.

Examining possible Gifted hints has become almost a habit - and often a helpful one - and someone would probably have done it eventually.

[elronds_daughter]

And yet, I have a hard time seeing a wolf spend that much time talking about logic he did not use overNight. If he were a wolf, I imagine he'd touch on it, maybe hesitantly point to a possible wolf, but not go into it in quite that much detail.

Examining possible Gifted hints has become almost a habit - and often a helpful one - and someone would probably have done it eventually.

Noted. Like I said, I'm potentially wrong on both accounts... Legate's logic just seemed odd to me. But maybe it wasn't a bad odd and my interpretation is off.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

what seems to me by far the most viable option: the wolves believed what Sally said and decided to kill her so as to avoid killing gifteds (ie avoid the heir's power taking effect) and kind of throwing the ball back to us.

Which makes us have the ball. (Wow what a wonderful speech this is shaping to be! :D) I'm inclined to follow Nerwen's lead in what she said before she died: we're facing the same dilemma toDay as we faced yesterDay, so we had better accept the grim situation and start hunting wolves. Otherwise the wolves devour us while we wait them to hit the heir first. On the positive side, I think they can't try to avoid gifteds much longer either because basically all the gifteds become more dangerous for the evil side as the game proceeds.

Hmm, it is a tricky one. How many ordos have we left? (I'll count in a minute.)

Should we just accept that we have to hunt wolves or should we perhaps think about lynching our Hunter today? It guarantees that the Heir becomes another Hunter, and it takes a shot at killing someone else at the same time. Could be a wolf, could not; but it's the same chance as getting a wolf as our lynching would be, and it gets us the Heir as guaranteed.

Just thinking out loud here; please judge the idea critically.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Five ordos left, one of whom is the heir. Surely it won't go back and forth too long. :p

[Loslote]

Should we just accept that we have to hunt wolves or should we perhaps think about lynching our Hunter today? It guarantees that the Heir becomes another Hunter, and it takes a shot at killing someone else at the same time. Could be a wolf, could not; but it's the same chance as getting a wolf as our lynching would be, and it gets us the Heir as guaranteed.

It'd be better to lynch the Hunter toDay than yesterDay would have been, certainly - we worry less about the Hunter choosing wrongly.

Technically, the Heir doesn't actually need to ever come in play - in the wolves' minds. With three (three? I think three) Gifteds, if the wolves kill off all the ordos, that's it. We either need to hope the wolves accidentally hit a Gifted overNight, or we lynch a Gifted ourselves. The wolves won't take care of the problem for us, at least not if they can help it.

[Inziladun]

I will more or less have to vote randomly again today as I'm going to be swamped with busyness for the remainder of the week, as I'm needed to moderate for this academic/jeopardy-like tournament area schools are competing in.

So, with my apologies of apalling inactivity and to to the Master Mod. I may be on late may not...

++Lommy



This logic just seems all too suspicious, and rather clever. Lommy's in fact pointing attention to the strange Nerwen votes, which she herself was a part of. It looks like an attempt to be fair and reasonable by drawing suspicion on something she did, in an attempt to exonerate herself from voting Nerwen.

I don't really follow the line of reasoning here. I thought Lommy was just saying in general that she thought analysing the Day 1 votes would have limited value because most were so ill-reasoned as to seem nearly random. I didn't pick up anything furry there.

Should we just accept that we have to hunt wolves or should we perhaps think about lynching our Hunter today? It guarantees that the Heir becomes another Hunter, and it takes a shot at killing someone else at the same time. Could be a wolf, could not; but it's the same chance as getting a wolf as our lynching would be, and it gets us the Heir as guaranteed.

I might support this, at this point. In addition to giving the chance of hitting a wolf and putting the Heir on the innocent side, there's something else I hadn't considered before: it would also be the only way we'd have of knowing for certain whether a revealed Gifted was legitimate or not, since obviously only the real Hunter will be able to take someone with him. The Heir replacing any other role leaves a lot of room for doubt as to the alignment of the one killed, unless the wolves Night-kill our first Gifted. If that happened, the most we'd know is that the deceased was innocent.

[Loslote]

I might support this, at this point. In addition to giving the chance of hitting a wolf and putting the Heir on the innocent side, there's something else I hadn't considered before: it would also be the only way we'd have of knowing for certain whether a revealed Gifted was legitimate or not, since obviously only the real Hunter will be able to take someone with him. The Heir replacing any other role leaves a lot of room for doubt as to the alignment of the one killed, unless the wolves Night-kill our first Gifted. If that happened, the most we'd know is that the deceased was innocent.

You may be potentially evil, but that's actually a good point. :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It'd be better to lynch the Hunter toDay than yesterDay would have been, certainly - we worry less about the Hunter choosing wrongly.

Technically, the Heir doesn't actually need to ever come in play - in the wolves' minds. With three (three? I think three) Gifteds, if the wolves kill off all the ordos, that's it. We either need to hope the wolves accidentally hit a Gifted overNight, or we lynch a Gifted ourselves. The wolves won't take care of the problem for us, at least not if they can help it.

Loslote, I am most happy to assume and believe that our wonderful and clever Hunter is going to choose correctly. ;)

I am going to look at Sally's posts as I didn't have the chance to do it earlier. Not that I doubt the analysis of my fellow villagers but it's always good to check the evidence for yourself. A seer hint is still possible.

[Nogrod]

I have only managed to read the rest of yesterDay thus far but I'm going to go back into the thread in a moment. But before that I think I wish to raise a general point about our best interests and some quite suspicious behaviour related to it.

I don't understand why some of you wish to lynch the hunter. If the hunter is lynched s/he will take anyone with her/him. So early on there is a very imminent possibility lynching the hunter will mean losing two goodies with one lynch. If the wolves kill the hunter during the night s/he will not kill an innocent in retaliation but can take a wolf (and we'd gain a new hunter).

So let's hope the wolves get the hunter and not us.

If we need to consider lynching a gifted - which is an option we might face soon enough - I do suggest we go for the ranger (if the ranger is willing to sacrifice her/himself) because s/he is immediately re-installed and the new one can continue in the role.

Obviously the importance of the heir grows every lynching/killing-chance going by. Basically, the later it gets for the heir to jump in, the more decisive that event is.

I'm not sure if we'd need to try that already toDay (needs to do some counting and thinking), but if no wolf or gifted is dead by toMorrow I think we have no choice.

Okay, back to read.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nah, I reckon Lommy called it. Good kill from the wolves. Nothing progresses.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I don't understand why some of you wish to lynch the hunter. If the hunter is lynched s/he will take anyone with her/him. So early on there is a very imminent possibility lynching the hunter will mean losing two goodies with one lynch. If the wolves kill the hunter during the night s/he will not kill an innocent in retaliation but can take a wolf (and we'd gain a new hunter).

So let's hope the wolves get the hunter and not us.

Yes, but it guarantees there will be no additional wolf. It gives us a chance of taking down a wolf today (which is exactly the same as a normal lynch would give). All it really does differently is speed up the process of dead goodies, but with one certain benefit as compensation.

[Nogrod]

This is plain crazy.

The wolves don't wish to kill the gifteds and we probably should hesitate lynching the wolves... especially if the game goes on for a Day or two. On the contrary, we need to consider lynching a gifted and the wolves probably hope at least in a half-hearted way that we'd get one of them before any gifted is dead...

This makes no sense.
:smokin:

In a way getting over and done with the heir would be most happy thing and we could start a real game. This just frustrates me. I mean really: I don't know whether lynching a wolf toDay is a good thing, I don't know if sacrifying a gifted is a good idea, I don't know how many ordinaries we can afford losing before the game turns into one where the balance of the whole game hangs on a thread of just good/bad luck with one decision either side makes...

[Nogrod]

Yes, but it guarantees there will be no additional wolf. It gives us a chance of taking down a wolf today (which is exactly the same as a normal lynch would give). All it really does differently is speed up the process of dead goodies, but with one certain benefit as compensation.Lynching the ranger does the "compensation" (that we get the heir: the role of the gifted we lynch stays in the game) as well without the risk of losing two innocents.

[Nogrod]

Don't get me wrong though. Unless we have better ideas, let's go for the wolves with all we have. If not for anything else, it's according to the spirit of the game.

The problem - if you haven't thoiught about it - is that if we lynch a wolf we don't know we have done that, and thus we can't make any deductions on the basis of the relations that the lynched "role-haver" had with others + we'll have a "newborn" wolf which are always the hardest to hunt down as you can't use the first Days as basis of trying to figure them out.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Don't get me wrong though. Unless we have better ideas, let's go for the wolves with all we have. If not for anything else, it's according to the spirit of the game.

The problem - if you haven't thoiught about it - is that if we lynch a wolf we don't know we have done that, and thus we can't make any deductions on the basis of the relations that the lynched "role-haver" had with others + we'll have a "newborn" wolf which are always the hardest to hunt down as you can't use the first Days as basis of trying to figure them out.

That's the beauty of killing the hunter, as Inzi pointed out. We would know exactly where we stand. :)

We don't have that with the guardian, though I accept it would be preferable.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

This is plain crazy.

The wolves don't wish to kill the gifteds and we probably should hesitate lynching the wolves... especially if the game goes on for a Day or two. On the contrary, we need to consider lynching a gifted and the wolves probably hope at least in a half-hearted way that we'd get one of them before any gifted is dead...

This makes no sense.
:smokin:

In a way getting over and done with the heir would be most happy thing and we could start a real game. This just frustrates me. I mean really: I don't know whether lynching a wolf toDay is a good thing, I don't know if sacrifying a gifted is a good idea, I don't know how many ordinaries we can afford losing before the game turns into one where the balance of the whole game hangs on a thread of just good/bad luck with one decision either side makes...

I don't know whether Shasta invented this role or just borrowed it, but it's really great! :D

[A Little Green]

Phew, what a day, only got here now, will try my best. So.

First off, I agree with Lommy on why Sally was killed - to find her seerish would have required the wolves assuming a double-bluffing Sally-seer.

To be honest I don't know what sense voting Nerwen made - aren't weirdness and "unproductiveness" much more usual signs of ordoishness than of wolvishness? I think the voting reasons of everybody in the nerwagon (including myself) are silly, but so were mostly the reasons of other votes. I think the biggest dilemma regarding analysing yesterDay is whether we can use the votes as valid anything or not, because a big part of the village was thinking they might as well vote random...I agree with pretty much everything she says here, but I also get Boro's point about why there's something off here. It goes without saying that an honest villager can admit to making mistakes. However, the tone reminds me a bit of someone hastily pointing out their own flaws so that others can't do it. But then again, some of the stuff she has said has struck me as stuff a wolf wouldn't want to say.

Should we just accept that we have to hunt wolves or should we perhaps think about lynching our Hunter today? It guarantees that the Heir becomes another Hunter, and it takes a shot at killing someone else at the same time. Could be a wolf, could not; but it's the same chance as getting a wolf as our lynching would be, and it gets us the Heir as guaranteed.

Just thinking out loud here; please judge the idea critically.Right now I think that is as good a plan as any. However if we want to do that the Hunter should come out rather soon because European bed-time is approaching.

I don't understand why some of you wish to lynch the hunter. If the hunter is lynched s/he will take anyone with her/him. So early on there is a very imminent possibility lynching the hunter will mean losing two goodies with one lynch. If the wolves kill the hunter during the night s/he will not kill an innocent in retaliation but can take a wolf (and we'd gain a new hunter).

So let's hope the wolves get the hunter and not us.

If we need to consider lynching a gifted - which is an option we might face soon enough - I do suggest we go for the ranger (if the ranger is willing to sacrifice her/himself) because s/he is immediately re-installed and the new one can continue in the role.Like Inzil said, killing the Hunter has the advantage that we can actually tell what role the Heir assumes. If we go with your plan and lynch the Ranger, there's always the possibility we lynch a false Ranger instead and would never be any the wiser. (Though how probable is it that the wolves want to take the risk and have one of them fake-reveal?) In any case, leaving the Hunter to the wolves would include an assumption that the wolves hit the exact one person they want to avoid of the ten-ish possibilities.

Nog is bothering me a little. Maybe it's just because I don't see his point, but my initial reaction was as follows. A wolf would really object to lynching the Hunter, if only deep inside his furry self. A bold wolf would say it aloud and hope to turn the village around.


EDIT: x-ed with Egg-nog and 2x Eomer

[wilwarin538]

Ok. I'm sorta here now. This is really the worst time for me to be playing a game (got 3 exams in the next 4 days, and I work for a greeting card company so Christmas season + Greeting cards = a busy busy me). I'm really sorry!

So I think the Hunter plan is still our best bet. Like Eomer said it still gives us the option of getting a wolf today and we guarantee that the Heir is on our side, and like Inzil said it's the only Gifted where we know for sure who it is, with the other's there's no way of knowing whether they were good or bad.

If we don't get this Heir business out of the way soon we're all going to go mad. Right now we're all trying not to kill a Wolf, and the Wolves are trying not to kill Gifteds, it's all screwy and so none of us know what to do. I think it's worth taking the chance.

I'll try to come back soon!

[Nogrod]

Like Inzil said, killing the Hunter has the advantage that we can actually tell what role the Heir assumes. If we go with your plan and lynch the Ranger, there's always the possibility we lynch a false Ranger instead and would never be any the wiser. (Though how probable is it that the wolves want to take the risk and have one of them fake-reveal?) We will not be any wiser whomever we lynch if that person has a role, but the hunter of course. But lynching the hunter on D2 gives a great probability of losing another innocent - or even a gifted. The hunter would have a 30% chance of getting a wolf against 60% (70%) to kill an innocent, to be exact. That's hardly worth the risk. If we're in this situation tomorrow (meaning only innocents have been killed) I'd reconsider my stance as the odds of getting a wolf (and the desperation of getting rid of this "hanging situation") would be bigger then.

But actually, you bring out a hair-rising prospect: if I was a wolf I'd be more than happy to sacrifice myself. That would guarantee the heir takes the wolves' side and the murky new wolf would be just an ace to their game - not forgetting that we'd be still in darkness about whether I was a gifted or a wolf so nothing conclusive could be said about my interactions with others... So I mean, if they want to do that, they can do it.

In any case, leaving the Hunter to the wolves would include an assumption that the wolves hit the exact one person they want to avoid of the ten-ish possibilities.That's a chance among others. I'm not claiming it would be an obvious or probable choice - but it would be a much more preferable way for the hunter to go than going by lynching.

A wolf would really object to lynching the Hunter, if only deep inside his furry self. A bold wolf would say it aloud and hope to turn the village around.
Here I do disagree. If I was a wolf I'd love the scenario where the innocents would take a 2/3 chance to kill an additional innocent. I'd understand wolves being afraid of killing the hunter on D4 (if there was this situation then aka. the heir wouldn't have yet been picked).

EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa

[A Little Green]

Here I do disagree. If I was a wolf I'd love the scenario where the innocents would take a 2/3 chance to kill an additional innocent. I'd understand wolves being afraid of killing the hunter on D4 (if there was this situation then aka. the heir wouldn't have yet been picked).The way I look at it, fear of the Hunter successfully picking a wolf when lynched is only a part of why the wolves would want to avoid us lynching the Hunter. The bigger part, I think, is that they a) lose the possibility of getting the Heir on their side, and b) lose the advantage of the current situation where they are pretty much safe since we don't really dare to go for them and if we do they gain a new fellow anyway. Not to mention all the distraction and confusion the entire Heir-business is causing.. So yes, the wolves definitely have a reason not to like this plan.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I'm getting even more confused... :confused:

I do not think that lynching the hunter is a good idea just because it let's us know who was lynched (or that it gives us a possibility of getting a wolf as well - as the chances are quite thin indeed and the risks are great), but reading Wilwa's post there has a good point: lynching the hunter would get us rid from this nausea and we could start playing.

If we think a 2/3 chance of an additional death of an innocent (including a 20% chance of killing either the ranger or the seer) is price worth paying to get rid of this stalemate, then it might be considered. I'm not sure I'm happy with that, but I'm also willing to get this heir-bussiness out of the way asap.

EDIT: X'd with Greenie

[A Little Green]

On another note - I want to go to sleep like about now. If the Hunter is around and wants to come out, I'd prefer it if s/he did it really really soon. Otherwise I'll just vote somebody I either find suspicious - at this point the ones I have something on are Lommy and Nog (yay for a happy family! :D) though they both are productive and I'd feel more like going after a submarine - or a possible Hunter (which would be weird).


EDIT: x-ed with Nog

[A Little Green]

Nog is a bal-rog.

On a slightly more serious note, I really want some sleep now. If there's still no action once I've posted this, I'll have to vote all on my own. :( How sad.

[A Little Green]

Argh. Bed-time.

++ Eomer

Hunch. G'night.

[Nogrod]

Thinking out aloud now...

If the seer has two dreams of people who are still living, s/he could come forwards and give us two names. Then we'd reward her/him with a lynch. On the next Night we'd have a new seer the wolves couldn't guess at in any way as that person has not acted seerish in any way so far and our ranger could protect one of the two making it possible the wolves miss a kill.

Well, the wolves might counter-reveal (or even take the initiative). How bad would that be? The consequences would be quite big whichever way we'd end up voting. If we lynch the real seer it's a success (we still have a seer and the wolves will not be replenished), but if we lynch the wolf we not only give them the heir but also risk losing the seer as well. The ranger could protect the not-lynched one though, but then the wolves would have a free kill of a known innocent the coming Night... In the longer run the ranger would be able to protect the lving revealed innocent the next Night though.

But we'd not be able to know anything, right?

We must be able to deduct things at some point of the game. So how probable it is on D4 (for example) we don't know who was lynched toDay if we lynch someone with a role? Thus far only ordos have been killed but we are fast running out of ordos and after the heir takes a role we start knowing things.

This makes me crazy.

Because of the false-reveal possibilities and the risks it involves I'm slightly against the seer revealing (and if the seer only has one or no names to give s/he should definitively stay quiet).

You are turning me towards thinking the hunter-lynch would be a good idea... But then again, a wolf might wish to do the false reveal (or take the initiative) here as well. And if we lynch a wolf as a hunter we give them the heir. The only positive thing is that we'd know we have done that. :o

On a more positive note: if there are two contestants for the hunter-role and we manage to lynch the right one we can lynch the impostor-wolf toMorrow.

Hmm.... (add there the risk of losing a gifted - or just an ordo - and weigh it against the chance of getting another wolf by the hunter) You've come up with a wicked game Shasta! ;)

[Nogrod]

How cynical would it be to try and think who is a plain ordo and try to lynch her/him toDay throwing the ball back to the wolves for the Night hoping they would get one of our gifteds?

Well, I need to decide on that pretty soon as my bedtime is approaching as well.

Where is everyone?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

An Ordo could reveal: we give 'the ball' back to the wolves, letting them possibly (probably, at this stage?) turn the Heir into a gifted, maybe even picking the Hunter who kills one of them (very lucky).

A wolf could bluff and reveal as an Ordo but then we'd at least be down to 3 wolves and no heir - and we'd have all the information required to march on with the game.

[Nogrod]

Let's lynch the heir.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here I am, I'll just post swiftly remarks to what's been said on the thread, and later maybe something more constructive...

I agree with this scenario - Sally's done the exact same thing before, and anyone who'd seen her do that (including, if I remember correctly, Nessa as well as the usual lot) would recognize that as a genuine offer. So the wolves, not wanting to hit a Gifted, go for the all but confirmed ordo.
Okay, point taken. Well I was counting on the idea of the WWs trying to get the Seer (as that's the one they'd want to get in any case, I believe, Heir or no Heir, it can be dangerous for them): that was a hypothesis I was verifying. The explanation that they just wanted the situation to keep as it is makes a lot of sense, although that means the pack is not very bold, but tries to sort of make the waters still and wait for us to make the first slip. Or, they could be just sportish and merely accepted sally's offer to be lynched for their own (which I find plausible).

Should we just accept that we have to hunt wolves or should we perhaps think about lynching our Hunter today? It guarantees that the Heir becomes another Hunter, and it takes a shot at killing someone else at the same time. Could be a wolf, could not; but it's the same chance as getting a wolf as our lynching would be, and it gets us the Heir as guaranteed.

Just thinking out loud here; please judge the idea critically.
To dangerous place, this will take us, but of course we cannot prolongate this Heir-stalemate forever. A Hunter killed at Night would be far more benefitial for us, though of course, we are not the masters of the fate in this. I have to think about this...

Lynching the ranger does the "compensation" (that we get the heir: the role of the gifted we lynch stays in the game) as well without the risk of losing two innocents.
Well what, in such case, would prevent a Wolf from coming to you and saying: "Hi, I'm the Ranger?"

Like Inzil said, killing the Hunter has the advantage that we can actually tell what role the Heir assumes. If we go with your plan and lynch the Ranger, there's always the possibility we lynch a false Ranger instead and would never be any the wiser. (Though how probable is it that the wolves want to take the risk and have one of them fake-reveal?
Not any less, I'm afraid - if there was ever a game suitable for fake revealing, I guess this is it...

We will not be any wiser whomever we lynch if that person has a role, but the hunter of course. But lynching the hunter on D2 gives a great probability of losing another innocent - or even a gifted. The hunter would have a 30% chance of getting a wolf against 60% (70%) to kill an innocent, to be exact.
Quoting Han Solo, "Never tell me the odds!" Honestly, I don't see so much in statistics, simply because real life (and WW too) does not really operate like that. Okay, of course in some basic way, but for this case, I think the difference does not really make a difference (? interesting). But anyway, the fact is that there is the risk of the Hunter killing somebody during the Day, the question is not "how many percent" but more like "is it worth it?"

EDIT: x-ed with some Greenie, her vote, few Nogrods, Eomer and such...

[Nogrod]

A wolf could bluff and reveal as an Ordo but then we'd at least be down to 3 wolves and no heir - and we'd have all the information required to march on with the game.Sorry Eomer, but we wouldn't have "all the information required to march on with the game". We wouldn't know if we lynched a wolf or a gifted, and thus the game would be anything but a normal one. Therefore it would be the most important we'd let the wolves kill a gifted first. That happening we'd know the killed was a goodie and has been replaced. From lynches we can't say this or that.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Okay, I'm gathering multiple possibilites for whichever coordinated vote-if any-we'd go for. And these are all assuming that no ordos are jumping in, for whatever reason. Right now, we are 7-1-3

So let's assume we're going for the hunter.

One person comes forward.
A-It's the real hunter, and we kill them. They take someone with them, so we know they were telling the truth, and that, unless they were the Hunter's kill, the heir will join our side. The wolves lose the heir advantage, and make a kill with their regular logic. If the hunter takes a villager with them, it's 6-3. If they take a wolf, it's 7-2

B-Or, for some reason the hunter is scared, and a wolf comes out. We lynch them, no one else dies so we know they faked and are highly possible to be a wolf to look at their posts, and the heir goes to the baddies and they use normal logic. 7-3

Two people come forward..

C-It's a Hunter and a Wolf. We lynch the Hunter, and their kill afterwards confirms it. The other is obviously a wolf, so we have an idea of who to examine/lynch. The heir is our new hunter. The wolves have to use normal logic. If the hunter takes a villager, it's 6-2, if a wolf, it's 7-2.

D-It's a Hunter and a wolf. We lynch the Wolf. There is no other kill, so we know the Hunter didn't die. We know who the real Hunter is, so they either die the next Night(6-3), or we lynch them the next day(either 6-2 or 5-3). The heir goes to the baddies.

E-Two Wolves. We kill one, know it's a wolf, think the other is a hunter, if they don't die in the night, we know they're not, and lynch them toMorrow. (6-2)

I won't go into the specifics if we get three or four coming forward, but we'll know if we lynch the hunter, and that at least one is the real one(in the case of four). To be honest, lynching the ranger won't get us an extra kill OR any sense of security in the role of who we killed. My calculations may be off, but I tried.

And this is all assuming we go for a Hunter reveal.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sorry Eomer, but we wouldn't have "all the information required to march on with the game". We wouldn't know if we lynched a wolf or a gifted, and thus the game would be anything but a normal one. Therefore it would be the most important we'd let the wolves kill a gifted first. That happening we'd know the killed was a goodie and has been replaced. From lynches we can't say this or that.

But no gifted should come forward and reveal as an Ordo. Only Ordos or wolves would do it, and therefore we'd see the result.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

How cynical would it be to try and think who is a plain ordo and try to lynch her/him toDay throwing the ball back to the wolves for the Night hoping they would get one of our gifteds?

Hey, certainly not that! I say that's really the worst thing we could do. If we do this, and the WWs do this, and we do this, and the WWs do this, then the WWs eventually win. Like, imagine the newspaper headlines: "Village lost by intentionally lynching only ordos!" Honestly!!!

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Let's be honest: we don't have a clue who could be a wolf. Absolutely no clue. Nothing done so far can allow us useful speculation, given the nature of this game.

That's why we might as well allow the Hunter a free kill; it's as likely to be accurate as any village lynch - perhaps more so as it's uninfluenced by wolves. Let's just get this heir-business over with!

If the Hunter's still around, that is. :/

[Nessa Telrunya]

Let's be honest: we don't have a clue who could be a wolf. Absolutely no clue. Nothing done so far can allow us useful speculation, given the nature of this game.

That's why we might as well allow the Hunter a free kill; it's as likely to be accurate as any village lynch - perhaps more so as it's uninfluenced by wolves. Let's just get this heir-business over with!

If the Hunter's still around, that is. :/

Wait, Nerwen or Sally could have been gifteds, only because of the heir, their roles weren't revealed. Is that possible?

This throws a whole new perspective on things

[Shastanis Althreduin]

This is enjoyable to watch. That is all. :)

[Nogrod]

Any revelation is probably going to be followed by a counter-reveal - or the wolves could even trigger that themselves. Whatever gifted-role we talk about.

And it would be a mess.

So after all the thinking this evening I'd say no reveals!

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.


What kind of player the heir could be? I think s/he'd wish not to get lynched or killed by Night. It is such a great role to play that the one having it would love to see the Day when it takes effect. So the heir would probably be very careful not to make anyone think s/he should be lynched or Night-killed but also visible enough not to be taken as a possible submarine wolf/seer by either side & involved enough not be the "no trace left behind Night-kill"...

A few names spring into my mind immediately: Lommy, Legate, Greenie, maybe Inzil...

EDIT: X'd from my last post onwards

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.

Nog, do you realise one thing, that the Heir does not know their role???

[Nessa Telrunya]

Any revelation is probably going to be followed by a counter-reveal - or the wolves could even trigger that themselves. Whatever gifted-role we talk about.

And it would be a mess.

So after all the thinking this evening I'd say no reveals!

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.


What kind of player the heir could be? I think s/he'd wish not to get lynched or killed by Night. It is such a great role to play that the one having it would love to see the Day when it takes effect. So the heir would probably be very careful not to make anyone think s/he should be lynched or Night-killed but also visible enough not to be taken as a possible submarine wolf/seer by either side & involved enough not be the "no trace left behind Night-kill"...

A few names spring into my mind immediately: Lommy, Legate, Greenie, maybe Inzil...

EDIT: X'd from my last post onwards

Wait, I thought the heir doesn't know who they are, and are just told that they're an ordo.

[Inziladun]

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.


What kind of player the heir could be? I think s/he'd wish not to get lynched or killed by Night. It is such a great role to play that the one having it would love to see the Day when it takes effect. So the heir would probably be very careful not to make anyone think s/he should be lynched or Night-killed but also visible enough not to be taken as a possible submarine wolf/seer by either side & involved enough not be the "no trace left behind Night-kill"...

A few names spring into my mind immediately: Lommy, Legate, Greenie, maybe Inzil...

Except for this from The Rules:

The Heir - The Heir is a special role, randomly assigned to an ordo at the beginning of the game. The Heir will not be aware that he or she is the Heir. Regarding the Heir's function - the Heir is nothing more than an ordo until the first non-ordo dies. At that point, the Heir takes on whatever the non-ordo's role was - either becoming a Seer, Ranger, Hunter, or Wolf. In the narration where the Heir's power activates, the role of the deceased player will not be revealed.

The Heir doesn't know they have that role, so how do we possibly find them?

x/d with Legate and Nessa, who bring the same point.

[Loslote]

If we need to consider lynching a gifted - which is an option we might face soon enough - I do suggest we go for the ranger (if the ranger is willing to sacrifice her/himself) because s/he is immediately re-installed and the new one can continue in the role.

We gain nothing if we lynch the Ranger. If we lynch the Seer, we gain two names. If we lynch the Hunter, we get a kill that's not complicated by this mess. If we lynch the Ranger, we lose an ordo.

Lynching the ranger does the "compensation" (that we get the heir: the role of the gifted we lynch stays in the game) as well without the risk of losing two innocents.

But we don't know that we got the Heir, not for certain, so it's a moot point. And if you never risk anything...

E-Two Wolves. We kill one, know it's a wolf, think the other is a hunter, if they don't die in the night, we know they're not, and lynch them toMorrow. (6-2).

The wolves might not kill the Hunter for fear of being killed. According to this, we'd lynch them anyway, and lynching the Hunter, for the wolves, is safer than Night-killing xem.

I'm all for the Hunter theory.

EDIT: xed since Moddly Dude

[Nessa Telrunya]

We gain nothing if we lynch the Ranger. If we lynch the Seer, we gain two names. If we lynch the Hunter, we get a kill that's not complicated by this mess. If we lynch the Ranger, we lose an ordo.



But we don't know that we got the Heir, not for certain, so it's a moot point. And if you never risk anything...



The wolves might not kill the Hunter for fear of being killed. According to this, we'd lynch them anyway, and lynching the Hunter, for the wolves, is safer than Night-killing xem.

I'm all for the Hunter theory.

The whole thing really depends on how many people reveal if called for. And I doubt a wolf would be the FIRST of two reveals, merely if they end up being the only one to do so.

[Nogrod]

Nog, do you realise one thing, that the Heir does not know their role???Oops... No, I didn't think about it. Is it so?

Well that makes the things once again "a bit more complicated". :smokin:

Wait, Nerwen or Sally could have been gifteds, only because of the heir, their roles weren't revealed. Is that possible?

This throws a whole new perspective on thingsI think these are quite plain talking...
Nerwen was lynched. She was an ordo.
Sally has been eaten. She was an ordo.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lottie, you mentioned that Lommy is saying what you were thinking; now you're saying what I'm thinking. :D

I expect that your focus is correct.

Oh, I forgot about your youtube video for today - going to watch now. :)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh, I forgot about your youtube video for today - going to watch now. :)

Blocked! It must have been racy indeed to be banned in this country. :p

[Nogrod]

Lottie, you should bring yourself up to date before you beat a dead horse.

Okay, I see what you suggested now Nessa.
The Heir will not be aware that he or she is the Heir. Regarding the Heir's function - the Heir is nothing more than an ordo until the first non-ordo dies.So would Shasta tell us if the heir died before any non-ordo died or would the heir just show as an ordo if she was not turned into anything?

His constant remarks on how funny it is to follow this game could suggest the heir is already dead...

[Nessa Telrunya]

Oops... No, I didn't think about it. Is it so?

Well that makes the things once again "a bit more complicated". :smokin:

I think these are quite plain talking...

My reasoning was that if a gifted is killed, the heir takes over. I thought we don't get a reveal on whoever the heir takes over for, but it would only make sense to call them an ordo. It wouldn't work for Shasta to say "no-role"

[Loslote]

Lottie, you mentioned that Lommy is saying what you were thinking; now you're saying what I'm thinking. :D

I expect that your focus is correct.

Why thank you...also,

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.

Oh, I forgot about your youtube video for today - going to watch now. :)

:Merisu:

EDIT: xed since the post I quoted

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lottie, you should bring yourself up to date before you beat a dead horse.

Okay, I see what you suggested now Nessa.
So would Shasta tell us if the heir died before any non-ordo died or would the heir just show as an ordo if she was not turned into anything?

His constant remarks on how funny it is to follow this game could suggest the heir is already dead...

My guess is that the heir will, if need be, miraculously turn out to be the last surviving Ordo. :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Why thank you...also,

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.



:Merisu:

EDIT: xed since the post I quoted

Ok...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, for now a general list of my impression about people after toDay's posting...

Wilwa - not really so much to go with, but when she is around, at least speaks, does not set off any alarms
Lottie - seems quite thoughtful, also does not really set off any alarms
Boro - okay, his vote today was rather weird, but I am not really going to judge him based on that... I think it'd be nice to see more from him, and possibly our village'd have needed his sort of decisive spirit in matters such as "lynch-or-not-to-lynch-whomever"...
Elronhubbard - became a bit more active at some point, not bad, I think there was something a bit curious about some of her posts, but nothing really "big"
Eomer - looks active to me, possibly with somewhat daring behavior, could be either, but does not really make me think him any highly suspicious
Greenie - seems sort of like Alice in the Wonderland, either confused, or acting it very well. It could be many of the under-the-rader-Greenwolves, but there's no real other evidence for that.
Inzil - contributive, but some of his posts especially earlier toDay made me think of him as if he assumed the role of "Mr.Agreeable" here, which might be a smoothy-Wolfdoing
Nogrod - I don't know what to think of him, on one hand, he seems active, but more strongly, he brings some rather dangerous suggestions which would, in my opinion, benefit only the WWs if being advocated - on the other hand, he is sometimes advocating things which are just confused-seeming (lynching the Heir), which would point more to innocence; but overall I am worried about him probably more than less
Lommy - I don't see anything suspicious about her
Nessa - has some interesting points. For some reason though, I think when reading her posts, I keep mixing her up with LRH (sorry both), I think one "homework" for me is to go through the posts of them both carefully to make a really proper opinion...

That all said, this does not bring me any closer to whom to vote, because... (see the above fifty posts of discussion whether we want to lynch a Hunter or whomever. Neverhteless, the list has its merit anyway...)

EDIT: x-ed with many, hey so what, is something actually happening?

[Inziladun]

Why thank you...also,

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.



:Merisu:

Still at work and only peripherally following things at the moment, but I think I do see where this is going.

++Lottie

x/d with Eomer and Legate

[Loslote]

++Lottie

PS: I was totally planning on doing that yesterDay instead of voting for Nerwen or Nessa. Then I couldn't, but still. :p

EDIT: xed with Legate and Zil

[Thinlómien]

Beep beep beep! Boromir88 is a wolf let's lynch him. Honestly, this is not a joke. He is just false. I admit part of my reason to think him weird is that he is not around as much as normal, but what he says seems weird. He is non-committal and doesn't give me the good solid honest Boro (who might be annoyingly tricksy but who's still always nice) feeling. He just seems off. And no, this is not knee jerk suspicion, although 1) his suspicion seems weird and 2) I'd be tempted to say he's a wolf and anxious to see me go because I have scared him enough by boasting about my infallible bororadar. :p (Which is not btw infallible but rather good! I tend to figure him out but at times I'm unsure and thenm it can go either way.)

Kind of agreeing with Eomer and Zil though. The problem is, I have to go to sleep soon and I'm not the hunter, so I don't know who to vote. So might be I'll go for Boro.

(Though how probable is it that the wolves want to take the risk and have one of them fake-reveal?)And what's the risk of it for them? The false revealer may die, but he will be replaced with a newborn wolf, who is harder to detect for the village. I think false reveals are a big reason why we shouldn't lynch the ranger or the seer.

Nog we shouldn't wait to lynch the hunter, if we do it, we should do it toDay. Because otherwise we probably either lose another ordo or lynch a wolf which is nice but creates a new one. And the situation is the same every effing Day unless a gifted is killed at Night, so we'd better get rid of the heir business. Otherwise the wolves just win this because all the ordos die.

Let's lynch the heir.:D Haha. Another idea btw - I wonder if everybody seems so half-hearted because they are ordos and they don't know if they are the heir or not so they are thinking they might have to change sides so they don't want to be too helpful...? That'd be stupid imo, but just throwing that out.

Wait, Nerwen or Sally could have been gifteds, only because of the heir, their roles weren't revealed. Is that possible?No. Everybody else's role is revealed normally except the one's whose role the heir inherits.


edit: xed since Lottie... !!!

[Inziladun]

PS: I was totally planning on doing that yesterDay instead of voting for Nerwen or Nessa. Then I couldn't, but still. :p

Well, I'm inclined to trust you. If you're a wolf, we'll soon know, if everyone else follows through with this.

x/d with Lommy

[Nogrod]

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.
It depends on what your working hypotheses about the best course of action for toDay is and thus are you

a) an ordo willing to throw the ball back to the wolves
b) a gifted willing to get lynched as to secure us the heir
c) a wolf willing to give the impression of either a or b to secure the heir to the dark side

The fact that you do it that way more or less cancels the options a and b to me.

And if the heir is already dead as seems to be possible we probably should lynch you Lottie. And heh, I would have been right yesterDay!


EDIT: X'd since Eomer

[Nessa Telrunya]

.

No. Everybody else's role is revealed normally except the one's whose role the heir inherits.


edit: xed since Lottie... !!!

Well, I figured if one of them had been a gifted and the heir had taken over, wouldn't they just be revealed as an ordo?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

PS: I was totally planning on doing that yesterDay instead of voting for Nerwen or Nessa. Then I couldn't, but still. :p

EDIT: xed with Legate and Zil

It just showed up, by the way. You made a good choice!

Legate's list is interesting me now, amidst all the Loslote-excitement. Something seems a bit off there; will try to put my finger on it.

[Loslote]

It depends on what your working hypotheses about the best course of action for toDay is

I'm all for the Hunter theory.

Answer your question? ;)

EDIT: xed since Nog

[Thinlómien]

Well, I figured if one of them had been a gifted and the heir had taken over, wouldn't they just be revealed as an ordo?Aiee! I just thought Shasta would say something like "the heir took over their role". Dear Mr Mod, care to clarify? :Merisu:

Probably voting Lottie today.


edit: xed with the two last ones

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

My reasoning was that if a gifted is killed, the heir takes over. I thought we don't get a reveal on whoever the heir takes over for, but it would only make sense to call them an ordo. It wouldn't work for Shasta to say "no-role"
I hope not - I have imagine it the way that that's how he does it, simply writing "no-role", indeed, or something like that. I mean, you will know that the Heir is "activated", but you don't know what exactly happened...
Why thank you...also,

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.

Brilliant, well, as good lead as any, at least something is happening. I just hope it's not the case of what Nessa said (quote above) - lynching our Gifted when we in fact don't want to would be really incredible stupidity.

In any case, as it was said, when lynching the Hunter, we will know for sure if you are not bluffing, and also if nothing else, we move on, so... well, fine. If so, for that matter, should we "vote" whom we'd like to see Hunted, or something like that? If even just for the record...

EDIT: x-ed more or less since my last

[Thinlómien]

If so, for that matter, should we "vote" whom we'd like to see Hunted, or something like that? If even just for the record...Good idea. let's do that.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

This is enjoyable to watch. That is all. :)

*shakes fist on behalf of everyone*

[Loslote]

If so, for that matter, should we "vote" whom we'd like to see Hunted, or something like that? If even just for the record...

If you like. I can't promise that I'll listen, but I'll think about maybe paying attention to what you guys think. ;)

EDIT: xed with Eomer and I'll probably disappear for another couple of hours.

[Nessa Telrunya]

.If so, for that matter, should we "vote" whom we'd like to see Hunted, or something like that? If even just for the record...

EDIT: x-ed more or less since my last

This sounds great. That way, we use the hunter idea to get the heir out of the way, but also get a semi-normal "vote" in which we can actually go for a wolf.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++loslote

[Nogrod]

Shasta. I need to go to sleep in a short time. So if you are online, please answer this.

If the heir would die before she got a chance to acquire a new role would she have been reported to have died as an ordo or as the heir?

That would be quite important information indeed.

If there is a chance the heir is dead we might just go back to wolf-hunting and cut the crap. If there isn't a chance for that we're totally stuck.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

It depends on what your working hypotheses about the best course of action for toDay is and thus are you

a) an ordo willing to throw the ball back to the wolves
b) a gifted willing to get lynched as to secure us the heir
c) a wolf willing to give the impression of either a or b to secure the heir to the dark side

The fact that you do it that way more or less cancels the options a and b to me.

Hmm, care to explain why?

[Thinlómien]

Wilwa - quiet, and nicely under the radar.
Lottie - is most probably <3
Boro - see what I said earlier. My top suspect atm.
Elronhubbard - slightly weird, touchy and making kind of eyebrow-raising choices. Then again, didn't we all do that first time? Difficult.
Eomer - kind of like him and his logic. I tend to suspect him too easily so for now I'm just ignoring his style.
Greenie - mostly seems like her busy and uninvolved ordo self who nevertheless brings up good points.
Inzil - seems more reliable toDay, and not only because I agreed with him about the hunter issue.
Nogrod - slightly difficult to read. I wonder if he's evil or if we just disagree. Wondering if he'd known that any ordo can be the heir if he was one himself.
Legate - difficult again. Leaning innocent, but also kind of under the radar.
Nessa - umm... no idea to be honest.

So, if I had to guess: the wolves are Boro, Nog and Nessa.

+ Boro for hunter pick

++ LOTTIE

I'm googling a few things for tomorrow's exam (the downsides of making brief notes with just noting down the terminology) and brush my teeth so I'll be keeping an eye on this thread for a moment, but then I'm off to bed. Have to wake up tomorrow!


edit: xed with everyone on this page and maybe more

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Wilwa - sweet and innocent, seemingly designed to trick me
Lottie - willing to believe she's our hunter
Boro - very hard to tell due to lack of time - I give a pass for now
Elronhubbard - she seems fishy but it's all mysterious with her
Greenie - I always think she's evil but I guess it's possible she's not a wolf
Inzil - yeah, um, tricksssy... I'll let the Hunter decide on him
Nogrod - I've played with Nogrod many times, and he seems innocent to me
Lommy - I've played with Lommy many times and I always want to kill her
Legate - really unsure about him, could go either way
Nessa - I think she could be evil and wolvish



Sorry about that, but I often like to leave a list before bed. ;)

[Thinlómien]

Nog, Shasta is not online. I asked him to be on the visible mode so we can contact him better if needs be - that's something I prefer mods to do - and he apparently did so for his profile says he was last active some 40 minutes ago.

edit: xed with Eomer

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

If you like. I can't promise that I'll listen, but I'll think about maybe paying attention to what you guys think. ;)
Of course, the point was mainly to get a bit of "record". Of course, we cannot give it a 100% credibility, people can outright lie, but still, it is at least more information - better than nothing.

As for me, right now I'd probably go for Nog - but let's see still for a short while. I am going to go to sleep soon-ish, in fact I can do it just as soon as I cast my vote, but I'd like to see at least reply from Nog if that's possible...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Okay, good luck village! It's been a most enjoyable night of Werewolf: cheers Shasta. :smokin:

[Nogrod]

Answer your question? ;)No. If I was a wolf who actually read the speculation we went through the last few hours I would have claimed to be the hunter. More or less nothing to lose for the wolves but lots to gain.

And you others... you just go for that, just that easily? Isn't that what a wolf would love to do?

I mean she can be the hunter, but this one-minded agreement scares me a lot.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

No. If I was a wolf who actually read the speculation we went through the last few hours I would have claimed to be the hunter. More or less nothing to lose for the wolves but lots to gain.

And you others... you just go for that, just that easily? Isn't that what a wolf would love to do?

I mean she can be the hunter, but this one-minded agreement scares me a lot.
Well it's not at least that I'd completely trust her, but I figure that if she is not the Hunter, it will show by that she does not take anybody with her, no? I think that was one thing there. But in any case, at least for now there is no counter-claim... at least for myself (and I think Europeans in general), I am not going to wait for it (not to speak of that it could've been Greenie or somebody who's away...)

It will remain to be seen in the future whether it was a good choice...

[Nogrod]

Hmm, care to explain why?Because the wolves have all to gain from a revealment. Read back what we discussed the last two hours or so.

Revealments are a no-no because we don't know what's the result - with the case of the hunter we'll know the result, but the milk has been spilt already by then when we know if we get it wrong.

A wise wolf would take the initiative in this kind of case as the probability with conflicting revelations seems to favour the one who revealed first.

[Nogrod]

Well it's not at least that I'd completely trust her, but I figure that if she is not the Hunter, it will show by that she does not take anybody with her, no?Yes it will, and the wolves will have bagged the heir in the worst scenario as well...

It will remain to be seen in the future whether it was a good choice...A good choice for who?

[Thinlómien]

Nog, seriously, what does a wolf gain from fake-revealing as the hunter? We know they were a wolf, so we get clues. Yes, they get the heir, but given that we cannot really play so that our first aim is not to let them have him (otherwise we'd just be lynching ordos) the chance is rather big anyway.


xed with Leg and Nog

[Nessa Telrunya]

Because the wolves have all to gain from a revealment. Read back what we discussed the last two hours or so.

Revealments are a no-no because we don't know what's the result - with the case of the hunter we'll know the result, but the milk has been spilt already by then when we know if we get it wrong.

A wise wolf would take the initiative in this kind of case as the probability with conflicting revelations seems to favour the one who revealed first.

Well, as unpredictable as revealments are, in this case, we can get either wolves or the hunter revealing, because the others would have the sense not to, and the kill the hunter gets gives us some stable info as to their role and gets the heir out of the equation and on our side.

I'm all for a hunter-reveal.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Because the wolves have all to gain from a revealment. Read back what we discussed the last two hours or so.

Revealments are a no-no because we don't know what's the result - with the case of the hunter we'll know the result, but the milk has been spilt already by then when we know if we get it wrong.

A wise wolf would take the initiative in this kind of case as the probability with conflicting revelations seems to favour the one who revealed first.

Okay, point taken... but what better thing can we do right now anyway, once she has revealed? Wait for the next Day if there isn't a counter-claim?

Also, I must say, there is one reason why I'd be inclined to think she is not a Wolf, because (with all respect, Lottie :) ), in the scenario you outline, do you think she would be the "initiative-Wolf"?

EDIT: x-ed since the quoted

[Thinlómien]

Now that I'm certain what "historicism" means and who Juhani Suomi is, I'm off to sleep. My exam starts in nine hours.

Good luck Lottie!

[Nogrod]

Nog, seriously, what does a wolf gain from fake-revealing as the hunter? We know they were a wolf, so we get clues.If she manages to get the real hunter to reveal it's a mess. But yes, you're right. If she's a wolf and the real hunter stays low now we'll have something. The wolves would gain a lot more by revealing as some other role, that's actually true.

But they get the heir. That's something as well. A new wolf is the hardest to track and we lose our chance of getting the one. If that one is alive in the first place...

Okay, I don't like this at all and I need to go to sleep. I'll relocate and hopefully vote then.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I wouldn't be that cruel. If the Heir had already died I'd have said something (and it wouldn't have been a nice-sounding something, either, if you'd taken out my special role!).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, fine, here we go...

++Lottie

*crosses fingers*

Good Night, folks.

[elronds_daughter]

Hrmmm. This heir business is incredibly confusing.

I suppose I don't see much harm in the hunter-reveal, even if Lottie's is fake. If she's the hunter, we'll know, and odds seem fairly good that she'd get a wolf on her way out, and then we can resume playing as usual, with all this heir stuff over and done with. If she's a wolf, we'll know it and start playing with a more normal mentality (if this can ever be called "normal"), albeit at a disadvantage.

Either way, though, the heir will be out of the way and everyone's confusion will lessen considerably (mine probably most of all).

Right. Much to think about before I vote. Hopefully Supreme Overlord Shasta will be around soon to answer the questions directed his way...I would rather not vote without the answers.

[Nogrod]

I wouldn't be that cruel. If the Heir had already died I'd have said something.Thanks for the info. Allright. We're deep in trouble.

- We don't want to lynch an ordo as the numbers are dwindling fast.
- We don't want to lynch a wolf as it would only give them a new one we had no take on thus far and we'd be unsure whether we lynched a wolf or not and thus couldn't basically read anything from the death.
- In terms of numbers we'd like to kill a gifted, but the lack of knowledge on the dead would give us little else (ie. something to deduce from). Unless it is the hunter we kill, but that way we risk 2/3 chance of killing one more innocent (or gifted) with the same blow.

So who should we lynch? All the options look bad.

If there were reasons to believe the heir is already dead I would have gone for the wolves whatever the consequences, just out of pure frustration.

But now Lottie-option is starting to look like the only one available (unless there is a competing revealment). If she's a wolf, that's masterly played.

As I need to leave this early, I would have liked to leave another option for those who vote after me, if there'd be some new evidence, but as she seems to have already 5 votes out of 11 possible, and one for Lommy and another for Eomer it looks like a done deal. *blah*

Well as it is so, I'll vote for a wolf then (with the working hypothesis that Lottie is lynched and is either the hunter or a wolf).

Eomer is up to no good.

Lommy's going for Boro bothers me.

Legate's detachment bothers me.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I suppose Lottie's the big choice... I REALLY wonder what she meant, but..

++Lottie

She did ask for it.

[elronds_daughter]

Nog, I'm starting to see your point about all this blind agreement...

[Nogrod]

Writing of the previous post took me over half an hour (at this time of night) as my computer seems to just get jammed, jammed, jammed, jammed...

So without further ado.

++ Eomer

He's most probably a wolf and ripe for taking with you Lottie - had you powers for that. You'll find the reason from the thread (not from me though) if you just read closely enough.


On another note. If I'm not around toMorrow, do remember that those with confident understanding of the game-mechanics are more likely those who have gone through different options together. My learning curve toDay is a prime example of what happens when one just plunges in and starts to think in situ.


Okay. I hope Lottie is the hunter and picks well.

I fear she is the hunter and picks badly - and I have a nagging feeling she could be a wolf from a bold bunch (see killing Sally last Night and "throwing the ball back to us").

Well, nothing to be done about that now.

[wilwarin538]

I fear she is the hunter and picks badly - and I have a nagging feeling she could be a wolf from a bold bunch (see killing Sally last Night and "throwing the ball back to us").


Hmm, I don't see that likely being the case (her being a wolf), the wolves really wouldn't have all that much to gain by doing that. Yeah, they get the Heir, but then the village would know right away that Lottie wasn't the real hunter, so we'd look at her posts tomorrow and maybe be able to narrow down her mates, and we'd still have all 3 of our original Gifteds. Atleast with lynching the Hunter the wolves can hope that another innocent is taken down with them, but if the Hunter is left up for them to kill then they are the only one's at risk.

Plus, I would think if she was lying the real Hunter would have come forward and said something by now, so that they could be sure to be the one lynched instead of the fake one (gosh, that is a weird thing to say, wanting to lynch the real Hunter instead of the known wolf :rolleyes:). Actually, that's another reason Lottie is likely not a wolf. The real Hunter could have easily come forward, been lynched instead, and taken her down with him (giving the Heir to the village, and accomplishing nothing positive for the wolves).

So basically I still think this was a good idea. We just hope Lottie is lucky enough to take a wolf, and then we get the Heir (so we still have all of our Gifteds), then tomorrow we can just start playing like usual.

I don't think I'll be able to come on again, I am so sorry at my awful participation, hopefully Day 3 will be better for me.


++Lottie

[Loslote]

But now Lottie-option is starting to look like the only one available (unless there is a competing revealment). If she's a wolf, that's masterly played.

...

Well as it is so, I'll vote for a wolf then (with the working hypothesis that Lottie is lynched and is either the hunter or a wolf).

If you think I'm a wolf, why did you vote for someone you thought was a wolf? Clearly, if your other option is to wolf-hunt, wolf-hunt the person you've repeated claimed to think is a wolf - me, and if I turn out to be the Hunter, yay, if I turn out to be a wolf, you've still done what you said you would do - wolf hunt.

I suppose Lottie's the big choice... I REALLY wonder what she meant, but..

I meant I was the Hunter, Ness. ;)

[Nessa Telrunya]

If you think I'm a wolf, why did you vote for someone you thought was a wolf? Clearly, if your other option is to wolf-hunt, wolf-hunt the person you've repeated claimed to think is a wolf - me, and if I turn out to be the Hunter, yay, if I turn out to be a wolf, you've still done what you said you would do - wolf hunt.



I meant I was the Hunter, Ness. ;)

Clever, you :smokin:

[Loslote]

Aren't (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrzMhU_4m-g) you (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvmZ9SPcTzU) going (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtTDUXHAU5Y) to (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrsM9WggCdo&feature=related) miss (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMiM0O1YiMo) me (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8sZcmQr6KY)? :p

[Loslote]

Also, I hunted Zil last Night, and I'm hunting Nog toDay.

Adieu, ma ville! :p

[elronds_daughter]

Well, it seems there's nothing can be done about it now.

++ Lottie

for lack of any better ideas.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Deadline, since I have things I Need to do and no one's changing their votes, I'm sure. You lynched Lottie. Now, I can't reveal her role for whatever reason, but Nogrod also died and he was an ordo.

Night 3 begins.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm sorry for the delay. I've been trying to load this page since Night ended.

To compensate, I'll just tell you that Aragorn smacked the wolves on the noses with a rolled up newspaper when they tried to kill someone.

Day 3 begins.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That does not surprise me. ;)

Westu, Aragorn, hal!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hey, so at least something positive! I guess we could sort of take it the way that this compensates well for the loss of Nog yesterDay. Still, I think whatever the outcome of yesterDay's lynch was, at least we got the business with the Heir done. Now we still need to catch our first Wolf, but now at least we can start playing "properly", like not thinking about whether or not to lynch Wolves or whatnot...

As for the Aragorn-action, definitely it bought us more time. Whether it was a coincidence or not that somebody was targeted and protected, I think might be shown, but after reading this and the last bit of yesterDay, I actually have a certain suspicion now.

In any case, I hope toDay is going to be successful - we definitely should not go to any kind of inactivity, quite the opposite, as now we finally can do something. I am going to review some things and will be around from time to time during the day...

EDIT: x-ed with Eomer

[A Little Green]

A total of two posts this far? Are you kidding me? :confused: Anyway, I have really limited time toDay - I'll have to be gone for good in an hour, which sucks. I might be back before DL but can't be sure so I'm going to vote super-early to be on the safe side.

I'll read the end of yesterDay again now to get some proper idea of what happened - I've skimmed it but that's all - but one thing first. Well, two. No, three, actually. First, yay for the Hunter thing working (but not yay for Nog being an ordo). Second, yay for the Ranger! Third, sorry, Eomer, for voting for you twice in a row with terrible reasons, I was pretty sure you were the Hunter. Well, obviously I was wrong. :(

[A Little Green]

Wilwa - Good vibes from the little I've seen.
Boro - Hmm. I'd like a closer look if I have time, there's a vague nagging something I can't put my finger on.
Elronhubbard - Could go either way. Maybe leaning good, though I'm not at all sure.
Eomer - Leaning good.
Legate - I agree with whoever it was who said there's something off about his list. He's being fishy. He's always kind of wishy-washy, but it looks calculated this time. Another I'd take a closer look at if I had the time.
Inzil - Sneaky as ever, I have no idea.
Lommy - Good vibes from her too.
Nessa - I'm uneasy with her. She's the third I would like a closer look at.

So if I had to hazard a guess at who our three villains are, I'd say Legate, Nessa and Boro - but knowing the general accuracy of my guesses I'm probably wrong about at least one and probably two. I'm not surprised if Zil and/or Hubbard are wolves. However, if the wolves are Wilwa, Eomer and Lommy, I'm going to eat my hat.

[A Little Green]

Right, I had a quick look at Boro - with only five posts from him it didn't take that much time. He's busy, obviously, which might explain a lot. He votes Nessa on Day 1, not based on any valid reason I can detect. Quite a lot of people voted randomly that Day, but I still don't like it. Day 2 he votes Lommy based on an argument about her pointing out the silliness of voting Nerwen being fishy. He had suspected Lommy already on Day 1 because her RL conversation with me (that she related in her first post) had a fishy tone.

So? I was about to write "could be wolf, could be innocent" but realised that's a bit Captain Obvious-y.. His consistence on Lommy looks odd - the way he suspects her for something on Day 1 and a completely different thing the next. Brings me in mind of a wolf who has decided on a suspect and tries to be consistent with it. It's kind of weird that pretty much the only one he suspects is Lommy, and both times based on a different detail. Then again, it could also be that he's innocent, and the Day 1 suspicion guided him to read the next thing she said as wolvish as well? Argh.

I think my conclusion will be "leaning bad". I wish I had time to look at Leggy or Nessa, I think I'll try if there's still no one around when I post this..

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Right, I had a quick look at Boro - with only five posts from him it didn't take that much time. He's busy, obviously, which might explain a lot. He votes Nessa on Day 1, not based on any valid reason I can detect. Quite a lot of people voted randomly that Day, but I still don't like it. Day 2 he votes Lommy based on an argument about her pointing out the silliness of voting Nerwen being fishy. He had suspected Lommy already on Day 1 because her RL conversation with me (that she related in her first post) had a fishy tone.

So? I was about to write "could be wolf, could be innocent" but realised that's a bit Captain Obvious-y.. His consistence on Lommy looks odd - the way he suspects her for something on Day 1 and a completely different thing the next. Brings me in mind of a wolf who has decided on a suspect and tries to be consistent with it. It's kind of weird that pretty much the only one he suspects is Lommy, and both times based on a different detail. Then again, it could also be that he's innocent, and the Day 1 suspicion guided him to read the next thing she said as wolvish as well? Argh.

I think my conclusion will be "leaning bad". I wish I had time to look at Leggy or Nessa, I think I'll try if there's still no one around when I post this..

Boro's an interesting one, as is Legate. I wouldn't worry about Nessa, though.

[A Little Green]

Boro's an interesting one, as is Legate. I wouldn't worry about Nessa, though.Actually, having taken a look at Nessa, I'm inclined to agree. She looks better after inspection, though I'm not entirely convinced yet. Won't vote for her toDay. I don't have time for checking Legate's posts now - he has as many as Nessa but his tend to be quite lengthy.

[A Little Green]

So, looks like it's going to be Boro or Legate for me toDay. I'm rather torn right now - I suspect Legate a bit more, but I might feel better voting Boro since I have actually checked his posts.

[A Little Green]

Gah. Since I don't like voting without checking first..

++ Boro

I'm sorry for the lack of activity and the flood-posting toDay, I don't think I'll be back anymore. I should have a lot more time toMorrow if I'm still alive. Good luck guys!

[Inziladun]

Well done, Ranger! That moves toDay away from being make-or-break, which it could have been.

Pity that Lottie was wrong about Nog, but at least we still have another Hunter, and a Seer and a Ranger still. With nine of us left that makes it 6:3 against the wolves.

I wonder if anything can be made of yesterDay's votes. We know an innocent (Lottie) was supportive of the Hunter-lynch plan and another innocent (Nog was rather hesitant about it. Does that say anything about the stance people took on it? A wolf would have a reason to have been for it, with the possibility of two innocents at once going down, and to fear it, as xe or xyr packmate could have been targeted by the Hunter.

I'll be shortly going to work and have a doctor's appointment in a few hours as well , but I'll try to check in as often as possible during the workday.


x/d with the previous three

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well done, Ranger! That moves toDay away from being make-or-break, which it could have been.

Ha! You are striking me as pretty much the definition of a smooth, agreeable, eager-to-please wolf, Inzi.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

In fact, I think it's that tactic which moved Loslote to switch her vote from you to Nogrod. A mistake, I believe.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Whoops, that was fast, Greenie...

Okay, but as for me, as I intended, I have now looked at LRH and Nessa to get some clearer idea about them...

So, first, Elrond-Hubby:

Day 1 - on Lottie's list of why everyone should be lynched, reacts with saying that she's being "a tad unfair", to which Nerwen reacts with joke-vote for her and Lommy with not-as-much-joke note about that being "typical newbie wolf mistake", to which LRH reacts with a bit of defence about simply newbie mistake.

Then continues with a bit of sad impression, whether acted or serious, "am I supposed to be the first innocent to be lynched?", later changing to cheering Lottie for her "support". Vote for Nerwen with not much reasoning behind it.

Generally: her vote is neutral, as much as basically everybody's was at that point. Her remarks and behaviour could be a deliberate Wolf action like "poor me" and later trying to "buddy up" with Lottie in order to get a supporter. If there is anything suspicious about her, it would be this.

Day 2: Does not like my reasoning and Lommy's (? not sure what exactly, maybe simply "unfriendly"), but says that she might be wrong. Later is confused by the Heir and hunter-reveal, but generally thinks lynching Lottie is okay. At some point, when Nog spoke against it, it seems she started considering what he said, but then Lottie was clearly going to be lynched and so she just followed suit.

Generally: not so much to go with, a bit of a wishy-washy behavior. I could see a Wolf possibly starting to consider Nog's idea in order to avoid lynching a Hunter (and thus giving the innocents the Heir and risking a Wolf being killed), but not sure what would she have expected of that, so I think that does not really bring any point. I will be very interested to see her post more.

**

Nessa:

Day 1 - some general remarks, saying WWs could vote W-on-W in this situation as they'd look innocent and also get the Heir, speculating about which role to lynch, later resigning and suggesting going with random-vote, then going for the uncommunicative, saying that everybody wants to be nice because of the Heir, suspecting Eomer, Nog and Nerwen, voting Nerwen.

Generally: If she was a Wolf, I could see some strategy in e.g. the advocating of lynching the uncommunicative (provided that her fellows were not among the uncommunicative), or in using the speculations about the lynch for her ends (now the question'd be what exactly those ends would be). But by itself, it does not mean anything.

Day 2 - saying WWs possibly went for sally because of her vote (for Lommy), speculating about the outcomes of lynching the Hunter, then throwing in the idea about Nerwen or sally being gifteds, only we don't know about it; and later being "all for hunter-revealment" (although in right the next post, she asked what Lottie meant when she voted herself). Voted Lottie.

Generally: There's not really anything that could be labeled as "suspicious", in my opinion. Her few moments of confusion sort of speak more for her innocence too (although she can be a confused Wolf as well, it just seems less probable).

Altogether, I don't find either of these two especially suspicious or especially innocent. I also cannot somehow imagine that they would be Wolves together (though that's more like just a "feeling of compatibility", anything is possible). They are in some way similar to each other (but maybe that's the newbie status of them in my eyes). Generally, I'd like to see more from them to get some better idea.

Otherwise, I think I might take a look at some other people too, when I am at it. I concur with Eomer's remark about Zil, that's what I meant about him sort of seeming to take the role of "Mr. Agreeable" (although this particular post does not strike me as much, but in some yesterDay ones it seemed to me more like that).

Off to browse the thread a bit...

[Thinlómien]

Ok I have to say my participation will suck toDay. I'll be back later to vote and say a few things but don't expect wonders, I've had work from morning and now I'm off to four hours' drive away to see a friend...

Anyway, kudos for the ranger! That kind of compensates for the extra ordo death yesterDay.

Now off.

[Thinlómien]

A thought before I go (got a few minutes extra time since my friend is late):

can somebody count if toDay would be a Day for reveals? If both seer and ranger revealed themselves and their information, we could have 3-6 known roles. :eek: :D Of course there is the danger of false reveals, somebody should also count if we can afford it.

Will be back to see what happens! Exciting.