WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Boromir88]

I'm going on a dream leave of absense Agan. Sorry, apparently my talents are not appreciated and I should be on to more werewolf killing.

I don't like the look of Skip's "I'm the hunter, oh nope...kidding. It's a joke." I was in the game he's talking about, was the cobbler, and final day before wolves win. I thought for sure he was a wolf, because once wilwa revealed as the hunter, I couldn't imagine a scenario where an innocent would do that. I think it was more of a desperate act to try to prove his innocence, since he was almost lynched the day before, and if a wolf wasn't lynched it was game over. This one looks like a flippant act that just led to brief unnecessary confusion.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Feel good about -

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
Cailin - Seems sharp and observant, no warning signs.
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.
Mac - Hope I'm not giving him a pass because he sounds logical, but I really have no reason to distrust Mac at the moment.
Kitanna - Obvious.
Lommy - No warning signs as of yet, seems typical innocent Lommy.

Feel ??? about -

ElRonHubbard - What I've seen looks decent, but there's not a lot of it. Need more.
Valier - Lots of froth and bubble - seems opinionated, but has yet to take any real stances on anyone that I can see.
Skip - Need to see more. The only thing that comes to mind when I try to recall Skip is his recent Hunter-joke, and being unmemorable is always a bad sign.
Greenie - ???
Blind Guardian - I don't really like BG's playstyle of "oh crap I'm busy let me vote real fast", but then, I never have. It's not really indicative of alignment.
Manwe - His one post looked good, but I need more than one post to go off of.

Feel slightly bad about -

Boro - Appeared to distance himself from Pitch after Mac's post.
Pitch - Groupthink and vibe, I'm sorry to say. I need to look at Pitch more in-depth - until I do, while I do feel slightly bad about him, he's in no danger of my vote.
Nessa - While I don't think she looks fur-and-fangs evil, there are some points against her, like the possible reason for the Ozban kill.
Wilwa - Her earlier post regarding her vote jumped out at me as being 'desperately calm', and yes, I know that's an oxymoron, but it just read to me as someone who expected to be asked about her vote and went 'oh crap', so prepared in advance.

Feel moderately bad about -

Lottie - What I didn't like about her Day 1 hasn't changed - she apparently still doesn't have any real suspicions, which isn't like her at all.
Inzil - Something about the way he's acted toDay just screams 'double-bluffing wolf'.

Feel no-nonsense bad about -

Legate - His flipflopping hardcore on Inzil and his refusal to take a stance on anyone so far without qualifying it in some form or fasion makes me think he's a waffling wolf, especially since I also moderately suspect Inzil (distancing?). His reaction to Skip's joke is something I disagree with Agan on - I think it looked incredibly forced, and while that in itself wouldn't be a reason to suspect him, it certainly doesn't help matters.

[skip spence]

As usual I'm getting really confused (and a headache from trying to concentrate)

some random thoughts:

I wouldn't have voted Sally if I didn't think she was suspicious AND that there was a chance that she would get lynched. That said, I was a little surprised to see all the late votes for her which might seem opportunistic (trying to save a fellow?) but for me to accuse the late-comers for it (Agan, Lottie, Lommy) would be throwing rocks in a glass-house. I also agree with Agan that the reasons stated to vote for Sally weren't as bad as they are made out to be in some quarters, especially given the Cobbler-thing, although I myself didn't think of that at the time.

Re: Pitch's #183 - Why would a Nessa Wolfrunya be hinting at a Seer-Rikae in the first place? I don't understand it.
Good point. A cobbler-Nessa might, though... Speaking of Nessa, I had a brief look at her posts and the feeling I got was... well, that of sloppiness. She doesn't seem all that engaged. I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt toDay I think but would like to hear a lot more from her toMorrow (if she's still alive, that is).

Lottie seems much more subdued that I remember her. Which is kinda worrying but I'm not comfortable voting her. Not

I'm be tempted to try Inzil. Not because I really suspect him, but rather because his identity could shed some light of yesterDay's voting.

Legate is, alright I guess. Seems genuine.

Boro seems a bit off though. He usually talk of himself all the time and has, well, has has now too hasn't he? Still, something unusual about him. Should be more direct perhaps?

But to be honest I feel pretty good about most of the loud people. My vote may well fall on one of the quiet submarine-types. Pretty sure you'd find at least one, probably two wolves among them.

Hm. Must eat something..

EDIT :x'ed with 2 Shasta and a Boro

[Loslote]

Lottie seems much more subdued that I remember her. Which is kinda worrying but I'm not comfortable voting her.

Yeah, with the big huge games I usually take a couple of Days to find my feet. You'll get her back eventually, I hope. :/

Now then. Legate and Mac bother me, but not in a wolf sense. Legate because the tone of his posts seems way different than usual, but I don't think he'd do that as a wolf. Mac because, despite the logic and all, he's misrepresenting some people. Not enough so that people would notice much, but enough to draw flawed conclusions with if he wanted to. He'd in a good spot for a wolf to be in, but I don't suspect him personally - it's more of a "if he were a wolf we'd be in so much trouble" sort of thing.

So, since neither of those two are really worth voting, I suppose I'll probably go with Kit so that the option is there if we decide to lynch her and see where her Hunt leaves us and whatnot.

++Kit

I might get a chance to pop in again, might not.

[Rikae]

PeeWee.

First post - 7 - Some nice IC.
9 - replying to Legate. Seems to be a bit too much attention to it; this is a subtle thing, and he's still half IC,
but I began to got a talking-just-to-talk feel from him here which is always a red flag to me.
15 - More bantery, stating-the-obvious-y talking in order to show he's present, as far as I'm concerned. Discussing
the cobbler with Agan. This whole "cobbler and wolves know something" business strikes me as odd... the only way
that knowledge is likely to come out is in wolf-on-wolf or wolf-cobbler sacrifice, something pretty unlikely early
in the game. It's the kind of point that seems to make sense, and offers opportunities for suspicion pretty much
anywhere, but doesn't actually hold much water. Pitch's response to Agan seems to be a reasonable one, for the most
part:
Well, the wolves obviously know more than we do, but the cobbler not so much, as of now - so xe will indeed probably want to make xyrself known to the pack in time.
On the other hand, I see our Mod has seen fit to grant the cobbler a means to send secret messages to the wolves, so I don't know how much 'open' hinting we're going
to see on the thread. Still worth keeping an eye open, to be sure...

Could be as easily an innocent finding the holes in Agan's point, or a wolf hoping the cobbler will act
sensibly.

Pitch then argues with Agan about the seer revealing. Again, makes sense, seems a bit too easy. If Agan is talking
nonsense, why not suspect her for it? It's all very calm and balanced. I admit, I have a prejudice against calm,
balanced posting. It is most in the wolves' interests not to create waves and the consequent backlash. The 'sucks
for us' bit especially disturbs me, as it seems most innocents probably wouldn't even think of adding the 'for us'
bit unless they were unusually self-conscious.
Some very general what-wolves-might-do talk with Boro. Again, safe.

18 - Cailin approves of Pitch's politeness. I'm not sure why she mentioned it in the first place. Something is odd about
this, somehow - as though she is mentioning him just to mention him? A very vague feeling, though, and there is nothing
inherently wrong with approving of politeness, of course. She votes for Agan.

22 - Pitch explains Cailin's vote. Also odd, since the only comment on it was Lottie, who thought it wasn't great but
didn't find it wolfish. Says Oz's post is easy. Funny, considering I would say that about Pitch's posts as well.

23 - I say Pitch makes me uneasy. Which he did. I was primarily interested in seeing his reaction to that statement
as well as others' reactions to my lack of explanation. If my intuition was correct, I thought I might play a decoy-seer,
and if not, wolves might latch on to it, or go after me, in hopes of a bandwagon.

27- Pitch wants an explanation from me as well as Sally. This is perfectly reasonable. Not so sure about the wording, which
once again feels very careful.

Care to explain? (Sally too, who seems to be sharing your feelings.)

29 - Pitchwife retires with IC banter. Nothing wrong with it.

37 - I refuse to explain, waiting for further reactions.

41 - Agan points to Pitch's "passive-aggressive phrasing". I'm not sure if I agree. It was, a bit, but it is also
to be expected that people will ask about suspicions against them, especially when two come up suddenly without
explanation.

43- Shasta distrustful of Pitch "bandwagon" though he doesn't like his "havens forfend" remark.

44- Lottie can see where people are coming from with Pitch, but wouldn't have thought of it on her own and therefore
doesn't want to point fingers at him. This is doubly odd, considering that there is a lot of unease, but not actual
arguments, about Pitch, and that she seems to be covering all her bases here in a fishy sort of way.

45 - Boro: Pitch hasn't been particularly jumpy, not sure where it's coming from.

46 - Kit: Pitch isn't jumpy, but does speak a lot without saying anything.

48 - Inzil says part of Pitch's second post feels forced (I agree on this, it does) and agrees on "no Blind Guardianing" -
which is a fine point in itself, but in Pitch's post added to what I felt was its safety and obviousness. Inzil
talks about the wolves having to narrow down the potential cobblers through hints, and the cobbler having to hint to
avoid being killed. I missed this before, but it makes me feel better about Inzil, as it seems he's trying to prevent
the cobbler and wolves from using Mac & Agan's plan (if they will forgive me for calling it that).

55- Nessa saying it's reasonable for Pitch to want answers, and that I seem to know something "we don't". Agree on
Pitch, I'm still not sure what she's driving at with me. That I'm a wolf who knows Pitch isn't? I would know that about
every non-wolf in the village, and he could still be the cobbler. That I'm a cobbler? Then I wouldn't know anything.
That I am the cobbler and going to hint Pitch to the wolves at night? That would be a pretty bad plan, as they would
probably take him for the cobbler. That I'm impersonating a seer? Innocents have reason to do that. In short,
the comment is either not fully thought out, or an attempt at casting suspicion (or suspected giftedness?) on me without
putting herself on the line. I'm leaning toward the "not thought out" option, though. It's a risk I took by being vague,
and I expected it.

58 - I'm becoming more OK with Pitch. Considering the timing, I guess I can see now why Nessa thinks her suspicion of
me is responsible, but it's prompted by Inzil's "forced", which struck me as opportunistic, and Lottie's "seeing where people are coming from" which, as I said, doesn't make sense.
This is the sort of circling-buzzard behavior I was looking for, even more so than Nessa's suspicion toward me.
On second look, Agan, who gave a bit of a "rubbing hands together evilly" feel in 41, looks even worse.

63 - Kit votes Pitch for trying to look helpful.

65 - Mac agrees with Kit on Pitch.

66 - Oz says Pitch is being himself, Nessa and Sally are more unhelpful.

67 - Oz questions Nessa on her post number 55.

68 - Legate doesn't think Pitch is Mr.Agreeable, nor does he do anything that "smells of Wolf" (if I read this
correctly). I'm really not sure why he thinks this. Discusses wolf-on-wolf voting with Pitch, reasonable.

69 - Agan acting oddly here, as if she's trying to pass off responsibility for her Pitch comments to me (which would
have been the reason it would have tempted a wolf in the first place: I started it)

I only started to pay attention to the post when Rikae quoted it. Alone, I think it looked somewhat jumpy in the sense that it seemed very carefully phrased


71 - Elrond's Daughter worried about Pitch's "list of words" to make it seem like he's contributing.

72 - Inzil thinks Kit's Pitch vote is an easy vote.

73 - Greenie finds Nessa's Pitch comments odd, my backing off innocent unless I thought my work was done.

77 - Wilwa defending Pitch, I think a bit over-the-top, like a wolf trying to wash her hands of a bandwagon.

80 - I clarify about Pitch. (I overlooked Agan's prominence in going after Pitch yesterDay - I
was focused on Inzil and Lottie).

82 - Pitch talking about my suspicion bearing fruit, me "backpedaling", and so forth. A bit too easy to see my
behavior as wolfish. Indeed. Of course, more people have defended him than suspected him at this point, if I'm
correct, but being suspected is no fun even for innocents, especially on Day one, so I'm not sure this post is
especially bad. He sees what I was doing, at least, which shows a certain detachment. This is good.

83 - Wilwa questions me suspecting her for agreeing with me. I suppose it might seem ungrateful of me(?) but
I do that all the time. Anyone can express pretty much any opinion; I tend to think how and when they express it tells
more about their motives than what it is or who they agree with.

87 - Eomer says Wilwa is "trying too hard" with the Pitch-wagon stuff.

89 - Wilwa explains the Pitch-wagon. I like this, it's sensible enough. I suppose I can see why an innocent might
get over-the-top trying to avoid what they see as a misguided Day one lynching. I've done it myself. Why, then,
did Wilwa's initial "Pitch wagon" post bother me? Looking back, I guess it must be the wording: "I refuse to jump on..."
as though she is being compelled to by someone. There is less of a "this wagon is wrong because..." and more of a
"look at me, I'm not a part of this!" feel to it.

95 - Boro talking about Pitch as Mr. Agreeable. Not sure where this comes from, since that doesn't seem to be the reason for most of
the suspicion.

96 - Pitch - Lommy and Greenie too quiet, Mac too focused on looking for the cobbler.

97 - Sally - Pitch too smooth.

98 - Inzil unsure about Pitch, will let that wagon pass him by.

101 - Pitch disagrees with Sally - wants to know what is bizarre about Kit and thinks Sally is twisting Skip's words.

In this and Pitch's previous post I get a sense of trying to deflect attention, without much actual wolf-hunting beyond that.

110 - Pitch suspects ED because her only post was basically agreeing with people and latching on to Pitch-suspicion.
(Which is a decent point. She is flying nicely under the radar).



111- Lommy likes Pitch's posts, but he's jumpy.

114 - Pitch - Philosopher talk with Lommy.

118 - Pitch - Here comes the alternative bandwagon (Lottie).

127 - Sally votes for Pitch "for shiftiness".

152 - ED votes for Pitch. Safe... says it feels like a shot in the dark. Careful...

Day Two

183 - Pitch suspecting Nessa because she may have thought Oz was the seer, and because of her comments about
me knowing something, but dismisses this because he is not (?) her packmate and she would otherwise be a cobbler.
Sidesteps the other problems with Nessa's comment, I think. It isn't necessary that he be her packmate. I don't
actually think that Nessa, if evil, thought I knew anything at all- just that the impression I did could be used
aganst me. If she thought I actually knew something, she would more likely have night-killed me.

188 - Pitch thinks Kath is a no-trace kill, unlikely to be killed by an Inzil wolf. I think that's unlikely too,
unless Inzil's first comment toDay is a planned double bluff ("no wolf would be so openly paranoid!" type thing).

189 - Backs up Cailin's point about wolves not starting bandwagons.

200 - ED still doesn't like Pitch's "vibes".

202 - Boro defends his defense of Pitch - Mr. Agreeable business. I can't conclude anything from this - can
see it as innocentish defense, but Boro's lack of substance does worry me.

210 - Skip suggests wolf in crowd in danger of lynching, including Pitch. Feels good, however, about Pitch.

Ok, so all this hasn't really clarified my feelings about Pitch - on a scale of innocent-1 to evil-10 he's still
about a 6.5 - but it has revealed an interesting web of pro-and-anti-Pitch sentiment that encompasses pretty much
the whole village. That could be useful.

[skip spence]

As a matter of fact I gotta dash. Social duties must be fulfilled.

++Elrond's Daughter

This may seem random, and it is to a large degree, but I'd rather try a shot in the dark at a submarine at this point than at a person who's contributed more.

[skip spence]

Not that happy about Lottie's vote by the way. Seems too safe a choice.

And Rikae. Wow!

[Rikae]

I am starting to like the idea of lynching a "quiet one" toDay myself. The loud ones are so intertwined, the death of one will tell us something about others; the quiet ones not so much. The wolves seem inclined toward no-trace kills, perhaps for this reason. We would force them to kill a loudmouth and leave a trail... if we lynch an evil quiet one, so much the better, but if we lynch a good quiet one, at least the remaining innocents will be the more helpful ones, alive or wolf-killed.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I will say I don't like the idea of lynching Kitanna as per my idea earlier. I might not be opposed to lynching, say, Greenie, whom I can never read, if a submarine is what we want. Plus I know how dangerous Mufasa can be :p.

[Cailín]

I am uncomfortable with Loslote's vote and I do not like how Wilwarin is abstaining at all.

Heading home now, so I will be back with my vote in a little while.

[Inziladun]

I am starting to like the idea of lynching a "quiet one" toDay myself. The loud ones are so intertwined, the death of one will tell us something about others; the quiet ones not so much. The wolves seem inclined toward no-trace kills, perhaps for this reason. We would force them to kill a loudmouth and leave a trail... if we lynch an evil quiet one, so much the better, but if we lynch a good quiet one, at least the remaining innocents will be the more helpful ones, alive or wolf-killed.

I'm not in favor of voting a submarine just for the heck of it. There are already three innocents gone. Going after a quiet player whom one has nothing else on is all right for a Day 1 tactic, but I'd prefer voting for someone who actually looks suspicious, if most don't want to vote Kit.

[Pitchwife]

Phew, sorry for coming back so late - had some shopping to do, and then our ducks led me on a merry chase through the garden for the better part of an hour before I could finally convince them to go to bed.:rolleyes::D
So there's been a lot of things happening in my absence. I believe Kit, if only because a wolf couldn't hope to achieve anything for her side by volunteering to be lynched if she's going to withdraw anyway whereas the Hunter could. It seems a waste to let her go without making use of her gift, but at this stage, I think the odds are too high that she hits an innocent, and besides, if we all vote for her there'll be zero conclusions to draw from the voting tomorrow.
Speaking of the Kit/hunterbusiness, I was beginning to suspect Shasta yesterDay for his latching on to Legate's suspicion of Lottie, but this makes me think much better of him:
Regarding Kitanna - I'm going to voice an idea no one seems to have come up with yet - given that there are currently five baddies and two kills a night, it doesn't really seem fair to the village to handicap them due to inactivity. I personally think the fair thing to do would be to redistribute Kitanna's role. *shrug*Can't see a baddie suggesting such a thing.

With that out of the way, I have some questions and answers for Mac.
Pitch defended Sally's quietness before, but then attacks her after her big post. What I don't like is that he continues saying that he doesn't know what to think of her. It's fishy.
I attacked some things she said which I found attackworthy, but couldn't digest her huge post thoroughly enough at the time to come to a proper conclusion. So this is fishy?

Please explain how you can say my vote for Nessa was "baddie-baddie-bad-bad" (which is an awful lot of emphasis) when you know neither my role (which you very obviously don't) nor hers.

Originally Posted by Pee-Wee
now some people have nothing better to do than looking for the cobbler? I'm looking at you, Mac.
It was by no means the only thing I talked about. I'd also say it's better than the bantering or endless role/rule discussion we see so much on Day1, so come on. ;)
1. I object to that nickname.
2. Right, I believe you said some other things too, although I can't at the moment recall any without going back and rereading (which I think says something), but you kept coming back to this time and again (with a lot of help from Agan herself, I admit). It's better than banter anytime of course, but for my taste you seemed to concentrate too much on the cobbler at a time when we still urgently need to get a wolf. (I forget, you think you've already caught one, don't you?)
I don't like it how you keep on saying I only talk about Aganzir and cobblers and that that makes you suspicious of me. The fact I suspected you is not the real reason, by any chance?
I'm not saying that didn't colour my perception of you in any way - not the fact that you suspected me per se, but how you did it for a rather flimsy reason which I get suspected for in any other game. In your first ever post on Day One, you put Rikae in "the nice place on the mantelpiece for putting their suspicion and vote in the right place", which pretty much looks like it's a foregone conclusion for you that I'm guilty, and now Boro apparently must be too for the mere reason that he defended me yesterDay. I just don't get how you got there in the first place.

EDIT: x-ed from #247 down
EDITEDIT: actually from #249, sorry for the mistake

[A Little Green]

I'm sharing the computer with dear Lommie toDay, means that my participation is again somewhat limited.

Interesting. When I accused you of doing exactly this, you didn't understand what I was talking about. Then you say this to Sally. I think if I had actually caught you doing this, you would not direct people's attention to somebody else doing it after "playing dumb" first. You're off the cobbler-hook for now.Funnily enough, the very post you are talking about here struck me as another cobbler hint. :rolleyes:
Now, I'm going to divide people in groups based on what they said of me yesterday.Only slight egoism, my dear?
No real hinting because the baddies didn't yet have any information that we don't. And I suppose that's fair enough, although I would never ever had said so, regardless of my role (innocent me doesn't want to give the baddies ideas while an evil me doesn't want the attention).For some reason I'm not buying that either, darling.
I might not be opposed to lynching, say, Greenie, whom I can never read, if a submarine is what we want. Plus I know how dangerous Mufasa can be .Shame on you, son. And Simba was more dangerous than Mufasa anyway.

List coming..

[Rikae]

I'm not in favor of voting a submarine just for the heck of it. There are already three innocents gone. Going after a quiet player whom one has nothing else on is all right for a Day 1 tactic, but I'd prefer voting for someone who actually looks suspicious, if most don't want to vote Kit.

There are submarines who look suspicious, though. Actually, being a submarine is in itself suspicious, but beyond that, there are ED and Lottie. Given a choice between a suspicious loud (in this case, Pitch) and quiet one, I'd go for the quiet one toDay for the reasons I mentioned.

Shasta, I wouldn't normally consider Greenie quiet... hm?

Definitely opposed to voting Kit.

[Aganzir]

No real hinting because the baddies didn't yet have any information that we don't. And I suppose that's fair enough, although I would never ever had said so, regardless of my role (innocent me doesn't want to give the baddies ideas while an evil me doesn't want the attention).For some reason I'm not buying that either, darling.
You're taking the word attention out of context and I don't like that one bit. It's entirely different to seek attention than to say something so obviously evil and try to wriggle out of it afterwards. Actually what's the whole point of your comment? What's the point in saying you don't believe me? As I see it, you take something I said out of context and then accuse me of lying.

I know Greenie and I have an history of suspecting each other, but that comment moved her right now from my Either category to Guilty.

[Pitchwife]

Rikae - I was waiting for you to finally give some reasons for your feeling about me, so the analysis is much appreciated, and unlike with Mac's foregone conclusions (see above), I can totally live with that, when I see somebody's actually weighing the pros and cons.

[A Little Green]

Eomer - I don't know if it's just because of the size of the village that he has slipped under my radar, or if he's doing it on purpose.
Elra - Under good old Rudolph as well.
Macalaure - Hmm. I don't agree with all he says, but he seems quite genuine.
Shasta - I'd say he looks innocent if I didn't remember how completely he's fooled me countless times before. Nah, I'll still say that. (And if you are, in fact, a wolf, I'm permitted to murder you with a chainsaw, eh? :Merisu: )
Loslote - The vibes I get from her are innocent, but I'm not sure I buy everything she's done.
Kitanna - I believe her Hunter claim, obviously, it would make no sense at all for anyone else. If it's possible for her I'd prefer to keep her around for longer.
Wilwa - I was uneasy with her yesterDay before the Sally-episode, I haven't thought it through whether it would have made sense for her to say that stuff if she was, in fact, a wolf, so I'm undecided.
Nessa - I'm not sure about the validity of the points against her - apart from the idea of the wolves possibly finding Ozzy seerish. I'd need to check this, not sure if I have the time.
Pitchwife - YesterDay it seemed to me like he was being suspected for being like he always is. He seems like a regular Pitch to me, meaning that I can't really say this or that about his role. :rolleyes:
Inziladun - Leaning bad - he's always driving me nuts because I can't read him at all, but though Lommy's point is almost too easy it makes sense. Three minutes is an awfully short time to read who died and figure all that out.
Rikae - I really can't say.
Boro - I'm finding him more innocent than not.
Blind Guardian - No read.
Skip - I'm not sure a Skipwolf would be so relaxed and would find the energy to make Hunter jokes. Then again, there was something fishy too, I don't have the quote so I have no idea what that was!
Mänwe - Posted once this far and baffles me a lot. Can't say this or that.
Valier - Her references to the little Maia are so cute I'm having a hard time seeing her as evil! Other than that, I don't have much on her.
Legate - Strangely enough I don't have much of an opinion of him. Usually I read him easier than this, which unnerves me a little.
Lommie - Seems ok this far.
Aganzir - She's either the cobbler or someone trying really hard to appear as one. At least she has an ego.
Caílin - Agh, no read on her either.

Conclusions? I think this village is just way too big. I can't handle entities of this size! It seems I'm flip-flopping or have no read on most of the people. I would have to check people one by one but will definitely not have the time for that toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Rikae, Agan and Pitch

[A Little Green]

You're taking the word attention out of context and I don't like that one bit. It's entirely different to seek attention than to say something so obviously evil and try to wriggle out of it afterwards. Actually what's the whole point of your comment? What's the point in saying you don't believe me? As I see it, you take something I said out of context and then accuse me of lying.

I know Greenie and I have an history of suspecting each other, but that comment moved her right now from my Either category to Guilty.That was a joke, love, though apparently badly phrased.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

All the loudmouths appear innocent to me. Inzi, Pitch, Rikae, Agan, Legate, Mac - nothing's ringing any bells for me. In any case, I'm happy to leave them all around and wait for the trails when we finally do get a wolf.

Nessa is still bothering me: she just feels like a wolf. The Ozban kill seems to tie in with it, so I'd be most inclined to kill Nessa today.

Skip feels less like a wolf today. Lommy is probably wicked but I can't get anything on her just yet. Elronds daughter and Blind Guardian, hmm... not sure. Valier does look pretty creepy. Too many people meaning it's difficult to separate feelings for everyone.

But still

++NESSA

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I've been sick and sharing computer with the totally not caught up with stuff Greenie, so my participation has been and will be quite diminished toDay... my apologies. Trying to do my best with the amount of concentration and time I have right now.

Excellent memory and quick brains? No offense to Inzil, but remembering who you were after and who was after you one Day ago is really not that much of a feat.I believe he remembered who agreed with him and who he voted. Not that it's such a big thing to remember, but honestly, I necessarily wouldn't and it takes some quick thinking to connect the facts together and to the dead people in three minutes (including typing).

Agan is annoying me slightly, so I'm starting to trust her. She tends to take that nitpicky Lobelia tone when she's innocent. This, however, doesn't make me agree with her. I don't really know what she achieved by analysing everybody's actions towards herself. (But I guess analysing that is better than analysing nothing. :rolleyes: )

[Valier]

Akkk Looks like I'm not going to have much time today to read. Thought I would get out a little list out there. I gotta say with a village this big it is really hard to gauge anyone yet. I also seem to be a little flip floppy, so most of my suspicions so far are just gut feelings or wolffy radar pings.

Eomer- Seems okish, slight ping there but nothing I can put my finger on, so he gets a pass...don't like his suspicions of me, saying I'm creepy...(thanks:rolleyes:) but who does like vague suspicions of them when you are indeed innocent. And his vote for Nessa seems a little off

Elrondsdaughter- Have no read at all yet

Mac- He seems sane to me and I agree with alot he says so I say Innocent for now

Shasta- also seems logical so not high on my suspect list.

Loslote- I agree on her suspicions of Legate but not those on Mac...hmmmm not sure.

Kit- Well I believe Kit and don't think we should lynch her today...because technically we would still be getting just one "kill" but it will be at the whim and choice of Kit (no offense) and not the village for who dies today.

Wilwa- not so sure either....dang this is beginning to be a list of I don't knows...but I agree with her about Aganzir I don't believe she is the cobbler.

Nessa- No clue but don't see how alot of people want her dead....doesn't seem quite right.

Pitch- Seems a little wolfish to me, something about the tone of his posts...

Inzil- I keep wanting to believe he is innocent but my gut keeps gnawing at me that he is badddd

Rikae- Was seeming a little odd yesterday to me, but after reading her posts today I tend to think she is innocent as well.

Boro- Actually seems a little less Boro to me some how....he is usually very verbose in his posts which always made me suspect him. this time he seems more tame... so definitely not good.

Greenie-No read yet and gotta say I love her a little bit for thinkin my little Maiar is cute.

BG- okkkkk nothing...no read. Don't like the vote for Nessa, so that puts him on my not so good side

Skip- WTH? ok that was the worst joke ever!!! Who does that and plans to stay alive? I think a very dumb move, but also a very clever one for someone who has done it before and was innocent. Were you hoping it would work again? That no one would think you a wolf now? I'm not fooled..I think you be wolffish

Manwe- and enigma...Also agree that he's quiet and talking about lynching a quiet one...weird

Legate- Something is not quite right with Legate. He's high on my suspect list.

Lommy- Seems ok to me so far, plus hate to see here gone so fast after my long ww absence, so a pass for now

Agan-seems ok. I don't think shes the cobbler...that just doesn't sit well with me so far.

Cailin- also seems ok for now


Ok so that wasn't the greatest list and I am sure I have cross posted with a bunch of you...but there it is. So my vote goes to Legate, Skip, Boro, Inzil or Pitch...not sure as of yet, but I'll be around.

[Thinlómien]

Innocentish
Mac - looks like innocent Mac as opposed to guilty Mac. I like his points although I don't agree with all of them. Have to add, though, that at times he's made me a bit wary toDay (compared to looking very innocent yesterDay) so I'm not totally sure.
Kitanna - obviously.
Rikae - has not been so light cavalry-ish toDay, so I think I can read her better and I'm not very worried atm.
Boro - like I said yesterDay, looks more like innocent Boro to me. A pity he doesn't seem as sincere and in your face as he did yesterDay but I'm not still having doubts yet.
Greenie - I think I can recognise the busy ordo Greenie and here we have her.

In between
Eomer - under my radar, like I've said before. I feel like I can't read him.
Shasta - seems more elusive and joke-y than usual which is weird. Reminds me of early wolf-Shastas, but recently he's been much smoother as a wolf (remembering especially that one horrid game which he won). So, I'm unsure.
Lottie - I feel like I should have an opinion on her but I really don't. People seem very opinionated about her but she's mostly under my radar or in the contradictory books. Another whose posts I'd like to check when I have time.
Pitch - a lot the same as Lottie. Rather edgy but somehow honest all the same. Difficult.
BG - confusing.
Mänwë - even more confusing.
Valier - won't judge before I see more. No alarm bells yet, though.
Legate - don't even pretend I can read him anymore. Not too worrying, whatsoever.
Cailín - posts a lot but leaves a somehow impersonal impression. Kind of reserved but somehow warm, difficult to figure out.
Agan - leaning innocent with the abrasive behaviour but not sure. Hasn't picked on me yet.

Suspicious-ish
Ed - there's something vaguely fishy in her tone, she rubs me the wrong way. Mostly under the radar though. Would like to check her posts but doesn't look like I'd have the time toDay.
Nessa - totally submarine-ish, could possibly be a wolf based on Ozban's death and wasn't exactly convincing yesterDay either. Lynching her would feel rather knee-jerk, though.
Wilwa - is being incredibly defensive and talking weird stuff. Like I said yesterDay, might be just some RL stress but today she's been giving me plain bad vibes.
Zil - his first post toDay was incredibly fishy and nothing can change that. Rather annoying/confusing though that he looked so innocent to me yesterDay.
Skip - slightly fishy toDay, I don't like his joking tone. But then again, he looked fishy to me in my own game where I certainly knew he was an ordo! Unsure, slightly leaning guilty.


edit: xed with Val

[Cailín]

I just read over Loslote's posts and I do not like what I see. She seems very unsure of herself (fair enough - most of us are), but her apologetic behaviour and her unwillingness to take responsibility for her choices seem particularly shady. Also, her vote for Kitanna, leaving judgment in the hands of one who has admitted that she can hardly be involved, rather than trusting to her own.

I am also okay lynching Nessa and clear up some confusion there. I have not had time to look at ED's posts and feel lynching her would be a stab in the dark that would tell us nothing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hum. I don't like Lottie's vote. At all.

++Lottie

And in any case there doesn't seem to be as much support for a Legate lynch as I'd hoped for, so.

[Pitchwife]

Sidesteps the other problems with Nessa's comment, I think. It isn't necessary that he be her packmate. I don't
actually think that Nessa, if evil, thought I knew anything at all- just that the impression I did could be used
aganst me. If she thought I actually knew something, she would more likely have night-killed me.
Not so much sidestepped it as didn't think it through to that level, but I you're right, she'd rather have killed you quietly than pointed it out in the thread and risk getting you ranger-protected. My bad.

Now, I concur with whoever it was that said it (Shasta, I think) that the sallywagon could point to a wolf among the people leading in the tally before her; which would be me, Zil and Nessa (plus possibly Lottie, but she had only two votes). At the time the sallywagon got rolling for good, Zil and I had three votes each, Nessa four. Leaving myself aside (as I'm obviously biased here), I still don't think Zil looks particularly wolvish (and I think suspecting him because his first post was made too quickly is rather flimsy), whereas Nessa not only was leading the votes, thus in most urgent need to be saved, but there are also the Rikae affair and the Ozzy kill against her. Taking that together, I think I'll stick with my "baddie-baddie-bad-bad" vote from yesterDay.

++Nessa

[Aganzir]

Okie dokie here's a list I've been working on for ages.

GUILTY
skip. He just rings false to me (seer shouldn't leave false trails; if we lynch the quiet the wolves can escape the noose by being loud). Then again, I'm starting to think I have a tendency to always suspect him... He voted for sally, but hadn't noticed her cobbler suggestion. And I think his hunter joke was exactly that - a joke - and we can't draw any conclusions about his role from it. I'll be watching him.

ed. I've never played with her before and don't know what to expect, but I don't like her #71. She's throwing in lots of names and agreeing with people (okay mainly Legate), but her attitude seems to be that of "I don't suspect these people (whom others have already suspected) yet but if and when I want to go after one of them, here's to show I already thought about them on day 1!" Today she's mildly worried about us who voted for sally because of lack of adequate reasoning. Pray tell, what do you consider adequate reasoning?

wilwa. The tone of her posts is pretty innocent, but that doesn't tell anything about her role because she just is sweet that way. I'm not convinced she would've voted for sally if a wolf, but I still think her reaction to my posts was somewhat fishy. Not voting for her today though.

Rikae. Yesterday, she said I could be anything. Today, I'm leaning towards the cobbler. The wolves probably know by now it's not me, so it would be very convenient for them to encourage the village to lynch me as the cobbler. Not voting for her either because I haven't gone through her posts properly and because suspecting her has ended badly before, but I'm wary of her.

Green. I found her pretty okay (although too quiet) until she started twisting my words and basically accusing me of lying about why an evil me wouldn't do something that I didn't do. I don't care if she says it was a joke - if she phrases it so that someone might easily jump on it, it looks evil.

INNOCENT
Mac. I don't think a wolf would bring out points against a possible cobbler (me) so early on, even to say "I saw your hint but won't do anything to you, just be nice now ok." Plus he's being reasonable. In spite of this all, I'm deeply amused he tops my innocent list.
Lommy. Has good points and seems generally very innocent.
Caílin. She voted for me yesterday but didn't say anything about me looking like the cobbler. My reason says a wolf wouldn't take the risk. Apart from that, she's being delightfully Cailínish which doesn't unfortunately tell us anything about her role.
Shasta. Comes across as genuine and doesn't look like he was trying to twist anything I say to suit any darker purposes.
Eomer. I can hardly ever read him, but I'm not overly worried about him at the moment.
Lottie. I'm okay with her for now.

EITHER
Legate. I still feel uneasy about him, but I'm not sure he would've chosen Ozban as his first kill. And I think his reaction to skip's hunter joke was pretty innocent. My assumption is that no one would lie about their role if they're dropping out of the game. A double reveal would have meant that either Kit or skip had been lying... and although there's a chance he's a wolf who thought Kit was the cobbler or the other way round, I find it unlikely. That would be some extremely good acting on Legate's part - it took him 14 minutes to write a long-ish post which, I think, isn't enough for a non-native speaker to successfully feign surprise.
Pitch. Wishy-washy reaction to my cobbler play yesterday. He's kind of all over the place in the sense that he talks about everybody and has something to say on everything. He's been getting a lot of attention and I'm simply too lazy to go through him myself at the moment.
Nessa. To be honest, I can't see what makes her so suspicious.
Inzil. There are a couple of things I don't like about him: his "Nessa seems off, why do maths on day 1?" vote, his quickness to draw a connection between himself and the dead, and the half-accusatory tone of "You sally-voters, what were you thinking!?" Apart from that, I'm not very concerned about him though.
Boro. Speaking a lot without saying much brings to mind a Cobblemir I seem to remember. He's up to something, only I'm not sure what. The thing is, I agree with him about role discussion not being a waste of time, but he was doing it really elaborately. I'm wavering on what to think of his "damage control defense" of Pitch. The Boro I know has no problem whatsoever throwing his fellows under the bus, but in this game the wolves have such an advantage while the four of them are still alive that I wouldn't put it past him to defend a fellow.
BG. I don't particularly like her style (pops in, votes and leaves without saying much) but that indicates neither guilt nor innocence.
Mänwe. Never played with him before and don't know what to expect. I know he had a reason to be absent on day 1, but I still find it amusing how he targets on the quiet players and says he'll refrain from commenting on us others for now.
Valier. As enigmatic as ever.

**

My non-Downer friend (who doesn't know my role) is lying on the floor next to my chair and trying to distract me: "Macalaure is a wolf. I know he is. I must be the seer. I hope the wolves don't come and eat me tonight. Do you suspect Macalaure? Let's lynch Macalaure! Don't write that!"

[Aganzir]

Nessa - Rikae
BG - Nessa
Lottie - Kit
skip - ed
Eomer - Nessa 2
Shasta - Lottie
Pitch - Nessa 3

Left: ed, Mac, Kit?, wilwa, Zil, Rikae, Boro, Green, Mänwe, Val, Legate, Lommy, Agan, Cailín

Didn't vote yesterday: Mac, Mänwe, Green (& BG)
I don't think any one of them is under the risk of being modfired, though.

[elronds_daughter]

Some scattered thoughts:

I've tried to read through as thoroughly as I can, but I don't think my brain has come to terms with it all yet.

I agree with (I think it was Shasta's's) point that we should wait on lynching Kit until toMorrow, if we even want to at all. There are pros and cons to consider.

Boro is a little worrisome, but Eomer and Pitch are more so.

Shasta is quieter than I expected him to be, which is a bit unnerving, but that's probably just unreasonable expectations on my part.

Inzil's first post toDay, and everyone's reactions to it, have begun to make me doubt his innocence somewhat.

Rikae could go either way. Having not played with her before, I'm very unsure.

I'll be back in a bit to vote. Hopefully I'll have made more sense of things by then.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I believe he remembered who agreed with him and who he voted. Not that it's such a big thing to remember, but honestly, I necessarily wouldn't and it takes some quick thinking to connect the facts together and to the dead people in three minutes (including typing).
That is true, on the other hand, maybe that's the instinct of an inspector, to quickly put up facts together (surprised you did not mention that).

Now, a list - more for myself than for anybody else, to see all the names in front of me at the same moment and to somewhat summarise what exactly I think of everybody - and whom could I vote:

Eomer - I am a bit worried about him from some things he says, but I don't think I'd have reason to vote him now
L. Ron Hubbard - submarine indeed, though I would prefer voting for somebody I suspect at least a bit to a random shot, even if at a sumbarine
Macalaure - looks good-ish enough to me
Shastanis Althreduin - he actually seems reasonable, I quite like him this far
Loslote - I am actually thinking quite well of her by now
Kitanna - a Hunter. At least until somebody else starts claiming otherwise. *eyes Skip*
wilwarin538 - flip-floppy about her, but at least for certain not going to vote her at least this far
Nessa Telrunya - a thing or two raised eyebrows, I'm wondering about the possible implications of the Night kills, but hard to say
Pitchwife - not much of an idea, not really suspicious
Inziladun - wary of, but not really strongly suspecting him
Rikae - creeps me out, like I said, she is hard to read in general
Boromir88 - unsure about, watching
A Little Green - I have just very little idea about her, need to start pay more attention to her. There's just too many people and she has not been posting so much.
Blind Guardian - little to go with...
Skip Spence - suspicious, but the Hunter-joke, like I said, makes me think a Wolf would not pull that off. I am sort of debating with myself whether I should not overcome this feeling and vote him anyway, the question is - would a Skipwolf be so careless/bold to post something like that even as a Wolf?
Mänwe - nice to see him around, this far did not have much chance to participate, setting him aside for now, shall evaluate on him later once there's more
Valier - there is something fishy about her, I am not sure
Thinlómien - I am actually rather suspicious of her this time, interestingly. She posts in a way that seems unusual in comparison to her innocent self.
Aganzir - it's Agan. Mind of a Wolf, for sure. Whether she is an actual Wolf is another thing. Watching her.
Caílin - could be either

Actually, this list is not very helpful. In fact, it is not helpful at all. I have very, very hazy idea about most of people. I would hope it to change soon. Anyway, there are some people from whom I will probably not select, than I can think about the others...

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy

[A Little Green]

The votes, reasons in italics:

BG –> Nessa - doesn't feel good, too confident
Lottie –> Kit - Legate and Mac bothersome but not worth voting, votes Kit ”so that the option is there”
Skip –> Elra - submarine
Eomer –> Nessa (2) - feels like a wolf, the Ozban-kill ties up
Shasta –> Lottie - dislike of her vote
Pitch –> Nessa (3) - the purpose of sallywagon was to save Nessa


EDIT: x-ed with Agan, elra and Legate, seems like I missed Nessa's vote for Rikae! My bad.

[Valier]

im posting this with one hand while i get screamed at....

i don't like the bandwagon for nessa

++ Skip

I think hes trying to be a clever wolf.

[Macalaure]

Nessa -> Rikae
BG -> Nessa
Lottie -> Kitanna
Skip -> elronds_daughter
Eomer -> Nessa(2)
Shasta -> Lottie
Pitch -> Nessa(3)


With the exception of Shasta, I dislike all of these votes. :rolleyes:


Pardon, but I don't believe that's what I said. What I was saying was 'the Sallywagon sprang up very late in the day - it wouldn't surprise me if there was a wolf in the running at the time'. I didn't say 'every person in the running before Sally is a wolf'.I know, but just because one wolf is in the running is no reason to come up with a new bandwaggon, since there were others to choose from. The Sally-waggon is only very suspicious if everybody else running was evil.

Please explain how you can say my vote for Nessa was "baddie-baddie-bad-bad" (which is an awful lot of emphasis) when you know neither my role (which you very obviously don't) nor hers.Pretty bad case of bandwaggoning by someone I suspect on someone I think is innocent.

I object to that nickname.:D

I just don't get how you got there in the first place.Mostly some things others said about you, Kitanna in particular, if I remember correctly. I'll have to go see for myself, which I probably won't be able to before the deadline.


So, Boro, how's toDay different to yesterDay? I'm waiting for something. ;)


Out of the ones who have a vote, I could imagine going for Lottie myself (apart from what I said before, her vote for Kitanna is a very easy way out, which could be wolfish). Otherwise, I'd prefer Boro, but could also go for Pitch, Eomer, or Skip.

edit: crossed with Valier, there's another vote I like.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So once again going through it (sorry for the lists)

Not voting (green zone): Kitanna (I suggest we keep her for toMorrow, if anybody considers it still valuable to lynch her, we might do so, or just let her modfired - which I would perhaps prefer now), Agan (her reasoning about my innocence sounds like something a Wolf would not come up with - the thing about 14 minutes and non-native speakers), Shasta, Mac (for both see above)

Not voting (for not enough data): LG, Mänwe

Not voting (yellow zone, i.e. not strong enough reason to want to see them gone): wilwa, Loslote

Could vote (if none of my top suspects seem to be available for lynching etc.): Rikae, Nessa, BG, Hubbard (written in decreasing order of willingness to lynch them)

Would like to vote: possibly Skip, possibly Lommy, possibly Valier, possibly Boro

Unsure to which cathegory to put: Inzil, Pitchwife (status pending...)

EDIT: xed since my last

[A Little Green]

I have to vote now so Lommy has time to post and vote too. I'm quite unsure about this, but it's the best lead I have and I'm lacking the time to come up with something better reasoned:

++ Inziladun


EDIT: x-ed with Legzy

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

im posting this with one hand while i get screamed at....

i don't like the bandwagon for nessa

++ Skip

I think hes trying to be a clever wolf.

Well this one I actually don't like, not at all, precious. Like, I suspect skip myself, but for some reason, I get the vibes from Val as if she was just picking him while at the same point staying away from the bandwaggons which are rolling.

*sigh* This is all too difficult... I might be for voting Valier, if that has any chance to get through. I am unsure about the Nessa-wagon myself, just because I am not sure if I understand correctly all the reasons of those who have put it in motion.

EDIT: x-ed with Bob.

[Aganzir]

I don't really know what she achieved by analysing everybody's actions towards herself. (But I guess analysing that is better than analysing nothing.)
Gosh you make me sound so self-centered! :p My innocence is the only thing I know for sure. And I hope people's reactions towards me and my little cobbler show might prove useful after I'm dead.

the sallywagon could point to a wolf among the people leading in the tally before her; which would be me, Zil and Nessa (plus possibly Lottie, but she had only two votes). At the time the sallywagon got rolling for good, Zil and I had three votes each, Nessa four.
I don't particularly like this... I guess it's possible a wolf or two wanted to save a fellow or two from the gallows, but you have to keep in mind we have only so many wolves, and there was a lot of cross posting. And the fact that at least in my opinion there were much better reasons for voting for sally than anyone else.

I'd much prefer some coherent thoughts instead of scattered from ed (like a list or something).

Also here's an updated tally with Nessa's vote in it.

Nessa - Rikae
BG - Nessa
Lottie - Kit
skip - ed
Eomer - Nessa 2
Shasta - Lottie
Pitch - Nessa 3
Val - skip
Green - Inzil

Left: ed, Mac, Kit?, wilwa, Zil, Rikae, Boro, Mänwe, Legate, Lommy, Agan, Cailín

[Cailín]

Innocent For Now

Eomer of the Rohirrim - I know him so well that I am sure I'd see through him. :Merisu:

Macalaure - Like I said earlier, he seemed to be thinking more or less along the same lines as yours truly.

Shastanis Althreduin - I think I might cry if he turns out to be guilty.

Kitanna - Obvious

Inziladun - Can anyone fake amateur paranoid wolf that way? I am not convinced.

Legate of Amon Lanc - He seems to respond to events in a very innocentish manner.

Thinlómien - I never suspect Lommy. Who could?

Aganzir - I like her approach and hope she is on the side of good.

Pitchwife - feels genuine.

Rikae - aggressive but interesting.

Guilty For Now

Loslote - as mentioned in my previous post

wilwarin538 - tricksy and difficult to read, but I do not trust her (and normally I always do)

Nessa Telrunya - not committed, quiet.

Boromir88 - makes me uncomfortable.

A Little Green - under the radar and therefore evil

Blind Guardian - under the radar and therefore evil

Skip Spence - bewildering

Mänwe - under the radar and therefore evil

Valier - I remember Valier quite well from the distant past. She does not give me a fuzzy feeling as of yet.

[Rikae]

I have to notice that both our psychics feel uneasy about Inzil and Legate.

[Thinlómien]

So

Nessa -> Rikae
BG -> Nessa
Lottie -> Kitanna
Skip -> elronds_daughter
Eomer -> Nessa 2
Shasta -> Lottie
Pitch -> Nessa 3
Valier -> Skip
Greenie -> Zil

Out of the people already voted, I would prefer Zil, followed by Skip and then Ed. Nessa is making me have second thoughts again because the fact that people are so eager to bandwagon against her without any very solid evidence makes me think she might be innocent after all.


edit: xed with Rikae who is :D

[Aganzir]

Out of those who already have votes, I'd prefer either skip or ed. I could also see myself voting for Nessa, but that'd be more like getting rid of an enigma because I don't really have an opinion on her. Also Pitch and Green are doable.

[Rikae]

++Loslote

For her Kitanna vote and for being a submarine. Also considered ED, whose vote yesterDay was a bit too safe and who is also a submarine, but my gut feeling is better about her.

Nessa could too easily be an ordo who made comments without thinking them through completely, and is also a bit too popular a target at the moment for my liking.

Edit - X'd with all since me.

[Inziladun]

Ok. I've skimmed over the past couple of hours. I guess no one wants to vote for Kitanna, eh? I wouldn't think her gift would be effective if she dies as the result of a modfire, so I guess we're just going to lose a Gifted, not with a bang but with a whimper?

I'm not impressed with Val's vote. Really, a skipwolf should have known that pulling a stunt like what he did might invite Seer attention. If he is evil, we might soon know. Looks like a bad vote to me.

[Thinlómien]

++Zil aka Nasty Dan

Let's see how this shapes up.

Btw I promise to be more contributive and analytic toMorrow (unless I'm still feverish which I hope not to be) if I'm still alive. Not very proud of my participation atm.

Might be hanging around until more or less until the deadline and commenting.


edit: xed with Rik and Zil

[Rikae]

Ok, what with the psychics and the creepiness of Zil's last post, I'm gonna...

--Loslote

++Inzil

Let's see what happens.

[Aganzir]

I guess no one wants to vote for Kitanna, eh? I wouldn't think her gift would be effective if she dies as the result of a modfire, so I guess we're just going to lose a Gifted, not with a bang but with a whimper?
Do we rather lose a gifted, or risk her also taking another innocent with her? I'd rather lose just Kit, the odds of her hitting a baddie being what they are.

Really, a skipwolf should have known that pulling a stunt like what he did might invite Seer attention. If he is evil, we might soon know.
Skip is proving to be quite a bold player so I wouldn't put it past him.

Nessa - Rikae
BG - Nessa
Lottie - Kit
skip - ed
Eomer - Nessa 2
Shasta - Lottie
Pitch - Nessa 3
Val - skip
Green - Inzil
Rikae - Lottie 2
Lommy - Inzil 2
Rikae - --Lottie 1
Rikae - Inzil 3

Left: ed, Mac, Kit?, wilwa, Zil, Boro, Mänwe, Legate, Agan, Cailín

[Cailín]

Because she seems so eager to wash her hands of all the blood that has been and will be spilled:

++ Loslote

[Macalaure]

Ok. I've skimmed over the past couple of hours. I guess no one wants to vote for Kitanna, eh? I wouldn't think her gift would be effective if she dies as the result of a modfire, so I guess we're just going to lose a Gifted, not with a bang but with a whimper?Is she removed toDay or modfired tomorrow? It's the latter, as far as I understand, so no rush toDay. It's better that we got our own brains going (also considering what we will know toMorrow), than to just lay back and rely on Kitanna.

I'm not impressed with Val's vote. Really, a skipwolf should have known that pulling a stunt like what he did might invite Seer attention. If he is evil, we might soon know. Looks like a bad vote to me.That is a good point.

[Macalaure]

++Loslote

Only sensible option from my point of view right now.

[Thinlómien]

Actually going to sleep because I suddenly started feeling very tired. Mr Mod, would you like to do me a special favour and send me an sms and tell who died and who they were so I see it if/when I'm still awake at the DL? :Merisu:

Leaving you guys with this:

Nessa -> Rikae
BG -> Nessa
Lottie -> Kitanna
Skip -> elronds_daughter
Eomer -> Nessa 2
Shasta -> Lottie
Pitch -> Nessa 3
Valier -> Skip
Greenie -> Zil
Rikae -> Lottie 2
Lommy -> Zil 2
Rikae -- Lottie 1
Rikae -> Zil 3
Cailín -> Lottie 2
Mac -> Lottie 3


Nessa & Zil & Lottie 3, Skip & Ed & Rikae & Kit 1.

Good night!


edit: xed with Mac, edited

[Aganzir]

I agree Zil's last post was creepy... mainly because I really disagree with him.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Of all people who have vote, I would be for Rikae. Not sure if that's doable, though. I am definitely not for Inzil - especially after his last post (in contrary to some others). Likewise, I am not so much for Lottie, like I said earlier.

I guess I will just wait and see where to place my vote.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[Inziladun]

I don't particularly want to vote for Lottie, but I would to save myself.

[elronds_daughter]

I have a feeling my "maybe I should just be quiet so I won't say something stupid in my second game" is working just as well as "maybe I should talk a lot so I don't seem suspiciously quiet" last time. Phooey.

Thus, I'm not inclined to let considerations and votes for me alter my opinion of people.

I still think Inzil's mostly all right.

So.

++ Lottie

She seems the shadiest of all. Her Kit vote after the consensus had been to not vote that direction just seems to much like an easy way out.

[Rikae]

So, Legate, what happened to Nessa? Or were you ever willing to vote her after all? :p

[Aganzir]

I find it amusing how Zil's last post splits opinions.

Does anyone else consider voting for skip or ed?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So, Legate, what happened to Nessa? Or were you ever willing to vote her after all? :p

Well she is the one I am likely voting, by elimination method, as you can see.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I find it amusing how Zil's last post splits opinions.

Does anyone else consider voting for skip or ed?

Might vote skip, but not really sure if I a) want now, b) if it makes any sense given how many votes other people have etc. So probably not really.

[Inziladun]

Does anyone else consider voting for skip or ed?

I could vote for ed, just because of her easy, go-with-the-flow votes.

[Aganzir]

Nessa - Rikae
BG - Nessa
Lottie - Kit
skip - ed
Eomer - Nessa 2
Shasta - Lottie
Pitch - Nessa 3
Val - skip
Green - Inzil
Rikae - Lottie 2
Lommy - Inzil 2
Rikae - --Lottie 1
Rikae - Inzil 3
Cailín - Lottie 2
Mac - Lottie 3
ed - Lottie 4

Left: Kit?, wilwa, Zil, Boro, Mänwe, Legate, Agan

Looks like it's down between Lottie, Inzil and Nessa then... I'm probably going for Nessa or maybe Inzil, not Lottie.

[Aganzir]

++Nessa

I don't really suspect any of them but she's the quietest.

Nessa - Rikae
BG - Nessa
Lottie - Kit
skip - ed
Eomer - Nessa 2
Shasta - Lottie
Pitch - Nessa 3
Val - skip
Green - Inzil
Rikae - Lottie 2
Lommy - Inzil 2
Rikae - --Lottie 1
Rikae - Inzil 3
Cailín - Lottie 2
Mac - Lottie 3
ed - Lottie 4
Agan - Nessa 4

Left: Kit?, wilwa, Zil, Boro, Mänwe, Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hey, noticed LRH's vote. Well, so if it goes like that, then

++Nessa

And hope my thoughts and feelings and so on are correct. And that others vote well.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[Nessa Telrunya]

I see why Inzil looks so suspicious, after his strange comments at the beginning of the day and the wavy reasoning in his last post. But, Lottie, I don't understand. It just seems like a convenient bandwagon.

And of course, I'm still suspicious of Rikae, but her input is a bit redeeming.

However, Cailin seems to be chiming in at the perfect moment to be inconspicuous.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmph, should have voted later...

edit: as in, hope for not being randomly outvoted now...

[Inziladun]

Legate 180.

++Lottie

[Nogrod]

Deadline!

Wait a moment...

[Nogrod]

Lottie will be dead in a moment...

[Nogrod]

Melkor looked very pleased. Actually he looked very much excited. And he couldn’t restraint himself from telling the Maiar why he was on such high spirits. He just had to share his fortunes.

“Excuse me for being a bit late, but I have been busy lately. I am the ever watchful, you know. The Firstborn are here! And the Valar have no clue – but I! And they are mortal at least in a way that they can be killed! I’ve tested that… Oh the day!

And you know what? Oromë is looking for them, sure, but he’s looking for them in totally wrong places… and I’ve set lying whispers around that those captured from among the Quendi – as they call themselves – were taken by a Great Rider with a wild horse to devour them… Cunning, eh?

I’ve brought hundreds of them here into the pits of Utumno, breaking them, corrupting and enslaving them with slow arts of cruelty. They will be the backbone of my swarming armies to come! My… dorks! My Quendblins! Hmm… I need to work on their name still.

But ha! Someone of you said earlier that Ilúvatar’s plans outshine mine and that it’s his blueprint that in the end is behind everything. Now I wonder did he plan to create the firstborn only to give me an army of slaves? Think about that…”

Melkor looked triumphant.


“So how about you Loslote? I’m in such a good mood I’d be happy to grant you a quick and only freakingly anguishing death."

Lottie stared back on the mighty Melkor and opened her mouth in a subdued defiance.

"Some things are in our control and others not. Things in our control are our opinions, pursuits, desires, aversions, and, in a word, whatever are our own actions. Things not in our control are body, reputation, command, and, in one word, whatever are not our own actions.

So what others - other prisoners or you - decide is outside my control and thus nothing to me.

We are disturbed, not by things themselves, but by the thoughts which we form concerning them. Death, for instance, is not terrible, else it would have appeared so to Sally as well. But the terror consists in our notion of death that it is terrible. When therefore we are hindered, or disturbed, or grieved, let us never attribute it to others, but to ourselves; that is, to our own principles. An uninstructed person will lay the fault of his own bad condition upon others. Someone just starting instruction will lay the fault on himself. Some who is perfectly instructed will place blame neither on others nor on herself."

"Okay... stop that gibberish." Melkor said quietly. And then he vanished.

Everyone was still, just looking for what would happen.

Nothing happened.

Many had started to feel the insecure relief, when Lottie suddenly started to melt in front of their eyes: first the skin, then the revealed organs, and finally the bones. All that was left of her was a pool of rainbow-coloured liquid on the floor which in turn started slowly turning black and evaporating as it did.

Lottie had been an ordinary innocent.



The living:

Eomer of the Rohirrim - An associate of Ossë, speciality: lochs and ponds, great alliance with frogs
elronds_daughter - A spirit of no-nonsense
Macalaure - Carmótar, the Maia of housework
Shastanis Althreduin - A spirit of water
Kitanna - A spirit of all things unimaginative
wilwarin538 - Belongs to Vána, cares for all the small garden dwelling, winged creatures
Nessa Telrunya - The patron of town criers across the world
Pitchwife - Tender of Oromë's dogs
Inziladun - A vassal of Námo, serving as a warden in Mandos
Rikae - A spirit in charge of silicon & static electricity
Boromir88 - A Maia of Mandos, the interpretter of dreams
A Little Green - A spirit in charge of aliens, hummingbirds and farming
Blind Guardian -A spirit of evil ways
Skip Spence - A follower of Aule with an avid interest in behavioural sciences
Mänwe - A spirit of short acquintances
Valier - A handmaiden of Yavanna, collecting the morning dew from the petals of flowers
Legate of Amon Lanc - A Maia associated with the unfathomed depths of the world's seas but also with the waters surrounding Arda in the outer space...
Thinlómien - A maia who lives in Lórien and paints the dreams of those sleeping there
Aganzir - Aka. Firebeck, a spirit of fire
Caílin - A spirit of secrecy


The dead:

Satansaloser2005 - (Innocent) A spirit of ducks, muffins and cookies; reduced to ashes and dust on D1.
Ozban – (Innocent) Yavanna's underling with inferiority complex. Caretaker of undergrowth and small bushes in general, especially blackberries; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Kath – (Innocent) A spirit of nostalgy; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Loslote - (Innocent) A spirit of sunshine and rainbows; melted down and turned into vapor on D2.


It's Night 3 now.

Hush everyone, except those who have legal errands...

[Nogrod]

The Maiar woke up to realize that the spell was gone. But there was the tumult of war up upon them. Some flashes of lighting even penetrated the vastness of the structures above them and for seconds lighted the hall of the dungeon they had been living for the last decades. More frightening than that though was the shaking of the grounds of the mountain itself which shook the floor and sent huge pieces of rock tumbling down the darkness. They couldn’t see the boulders approaching until the very last moment, but they could hear them. And when they fell the impacts deafened their ears.

“Pull back! Pull back!” Manwë cried.

“Retreat to the corridors!” Aganzir yelled.

“Everyone to safety!” Inzil wailed.

“We’ll be free?” Nessa whispered to herself, standing like hypnotized in the middle of the Hall, until Rikae pulled her back from the hailstorm of boulders raining down on them.

Fire and brimstone indeed.

Suddenly there was a loud and deep crack, filling the air from the lowest pitches none of them could hear to the very highest over their capabilities of perception. Something above them trembled, sending a number of smaller rocks and dust on them… then everything started shaking for real. With a loud boom and then ever thickening screeches something moved on top of them in the darkness… and the voice grew ever louder. The lowest frequencies trembled them bodily from inside.

“Wait! Kitanna!” Legate cried.

“She’s there! In the hall!” Shasta spotted her too.

“Run baby, run!” wilwa begged her.

But Kitanna just stood there. Even in the dim lighting they could see the gleaming tears flowing down her cheeks as she stared at the others – but she didn’t make a move.

There was a loud and low boom somewhere over above them. The walls of the dungeon shook violently throwing the Maiar on their backs.

“I will not use the damned gift of Melkor against you! I’m not ready to kill an innocent!” They heard Kitanna yelling from the distance.

It felt like the end of the world. The roof finally collapsed and came tumbling down. Tons after tons of solid rock fell down and sent a cloud of dust of pulverized stone all over the corridor the prisoners had taken refuge in. The pressure-wave sent them flying tens of meters back in the corridor.

Gathering themselves they could hear some loud crashes and screeches from above, then there was another violent shaking of the whole mountain sending them flying around in the corridor once again. But slowly the bangs died into a deep tremor. And then it was quiet.

It was totally quiet.


~*~


Boro was not sure he was alive or not… but he was conscious. Slowly, to his short-lived relief, he managed to move his hand. I’m not dead, but is that actually better?, he thought to himself. But suddenly, exploring his body with his hand, he came to a parchment in his pocket. He forced himself up and eyed the paper.

“Hey! Everyone! Listen to this! I have the last message from Kitanna in my pocket! She must have slipped it there while I slept…”

He could hear others working their way up in the dim-lit corridor. He read the letter out aloud.

“If a spirit possessed a letter which she knew or believed contained information concerning what she had to consider the blessedness for her being, but the written characters were thin and faded, and the handwriting almost illegible, she would read it and reread it, with anxiety and disquiet certainly, but with passion. At one moment she would get one meaning out of it, the next another. When she was quite sure she had managed to read a word, she would interpret everything in the light of that word. But she would never pass beyond the same uncertainty with which she began. She would stare, more and more anxiously, but the more she stared the less she saw; sometimes her eyes filled with tears, but the more that happened, again the less she saw. In due course the writing would became weaker and less distinct; finally the paper itself would crumble away and she’d have nothing left but eyes blinded with tears.”

That kind of nailed it for everyone.


After a moment’s silence Blind Guardian finally dared to make the obvious question: “Anyone else missing?”

They all looked around. Suddenly Greenie fell on her knees to the floor and started shaking.

“Oh my, Lommy is not here…” Cailín muttered. Legate fell on his knees as well. You traitors kill the two I care about… this is getting personal... he muttered.

“I can’t see Valier either” Boro whispered.

“So their bodies have been buried down under the collapsed mountain?” elrond’s daughter asked looking at the rocky wall that now stood at the end of the corridor, in place of the hall they had retreated from..

“Well, they’re somewhere there…” Aganzir whispered, her voice breaking.

There was a pressing silence.

“So what now?” Mac asked and knew there would be no easy answer to his question.

Greenie stood up and tried to wipe her tears but it was in vain for more poured out uncontrollably. “I’ll sing to my sister” she said her voice trembling, “… and to Valier. You know the Misery song? Anyone? I’ll sing the soprano-solo.”

Eomer, Cailín, Boromir, Macalaure, Rikae, wilwa, Legate and Aganzir arranged themselves around Greenie. And they sang of their misery (http://nogrod.xanga.com/audio/a7dec3952963/). They sang from the bottom of their heart’s misery. The narrow corridor echoed with heavenly voices of the Maiar. It seemed that even the dim yellowish light got a little more radiant with the song.

But as the last chord of the song died down in the corridor, it was painfully quiet again.


The living:

Eomer of the Rohirrim - An associate of Ossë, speciality: lochs and ponds, great alliance with frogs
elronds_daughter - A spirit of no-nonsense
Macalaure - Carmótar, the Maia of housework
Shastanis Althreduin - A spirit of water
wilwarin538 - Belongs to Vána, cares for all the small garden dwelling, winged creatures
Nessa Telrunya - The patron of town criers across the world
Pitchwife - Tender of Oromë's dogs
Inziladun - A vassal of Námo, serving as a warden in Mandos
Rikae - A spirit in charge of silicon & static electricity
Boromir88 - A Maia of Mandos, the interpretter of dreams
A Little Green - A spirit in charge of aliens, hummingbirds and farming
Blind Guardian -A spirit of evil ways
Skip Spence - A follower of Aule with an avid interest in behavioural sciences
Mänwe - A spirit of short acquintances
Legate of Amon Lanc - A Maia associated with the unfathomed depths of the world's seas but also with the waters surrounding Arda in the outer space...
Aganzir - Aka. irebeck, a spirit of fire
Caílin - A spirit of secrecy


The dead:

Satansaloser2005 - (Innocent) A spirit of ducks, muffins and cookies; reduced to ashes and dust on D1.
Ozban – (Innocent) Yavanna's underling with inferiority complex. Caretaker of undergrowth and small bushes in general, especially blackberries; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Kath – (Innocent) A spirit of nostalgy; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Loslote - (Innocent) A spirit of sunshine and rainbows; melted down and turned into vapor on D2.
Kitanna - (Hunter) A spirit of all things unimaginative; committed a willful suicide on N3.
Thinlómien - (innocent) A maia who lives in Lórien and paints the dreams of those sleeping there; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Valier - (Innocent) A handmaiden of Yavanna, collecting the morning dew from the petals of flowers; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.



Day 3 has begun.

[Aganzir]

Inzil what was your Legate-180 about? I kept refreshing the thread at the deadline and his vote appeared only when my clock already said it was 12:01, so he really waited till the last possible minute. I can't help wondering if both he and Nessa are actually wolves and he decided to buy them one more night with a double kill.

I am not particularly surprised about Lommy's death because almost everybody found her innocent, but Valier is more difficult. She's certainly not a no trace kill but I'm not sure if they thought she was the seer, found her too dangerous to keep alive or just wanted to frame someone.

Okay I need to go now, will be back later.

[Inziladun]

Ach, I'm sorry Lottie. I let myself be swayed at the last second by Nessa. :( Her defense of you looked genuine. Hats off to her if she's a wolf.

I can understand where the desire to lynch me might be present. If you feel you just can't deal with the uncertainty, or you can't find anyone else who looks worse, go for it. I rather wish you wouldn't, because it won't net you a baddie, and these double kills are fast mounting up.
I'm off work tomorrow, so I'll do my best to be as productive as possible.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, how should I put this: I am not that sad about the two deaths toNight, because it has eliminated two people I have been rather unsure about. Which sort of clears the field.

Nonetheless, I think it is about time for us to get a Wolf. The village is getting smaller, too small for four Wolves AND two kills per Night. Also, the fact that even the Cobbler is still around makes me rather nervous.

So... what about those of my suspects, then, who are still alive. Skip, Boro, Rikae? Nessa, who escaped the gallows yesterDay, and what about again Zil, her gallant savior? And who knows about Pitchwife? Or what about all the quieter folk? Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills. Maybe if I scratch Greenie from that and make it one of the five, it would make the most sense, as there is a slight chance Greenie would not like to kill Ozban or Kath.)

I guess I will just leave now - I am actually feeling quite tired and sleepy; I would like to look at and consider why Lommy and Val have been targeted. I am not really in the mood right now, though, I will do it in the morning - I am sure meanwhile somebody else will look at it too, but still. In any case, it will be also interesting to read what other people think.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan and Zil

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ach, I'm sorry Lottie. I let myself be swayed at the last second by Nessa. :( Her defense of you looked genuine. Hats off to her if she's a wolf.

I can understand where the desire to lynch me might be present. If you feel you just can't deal with the uncertainty, or you can't find anyone else who looks worse, go for it. I rather wish you wouldn't, because it won't net you a baddie, and these double kills are fast mounting up.
I'm off work tomorrow, so I'll do my best to be as productive as possible.

Zil, after reading this (especially the underlined part - underlining mine, of course) - I cannot help to ask: Aren't you perchance the Cobbler?

Nonetheless, I really have to wait for your answer (unless it is super-fast) till morning, I really have to go to sleep...

[Inziladun]

Zil, after reading this (especially the underlined part - underlining mine, of course) - I cannot help to ask: Aren't you perchance the Cobbler?

Nonetheless, I really have to wait for your answer (unless it is super-fast) till morning, I really have to go to sleep...

No, I am not the Cobbler.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

No, I am not the Cobbler.

What else could you say, anyway. Okay, will be back in some later hours.

[Inziladun]

What else could you say, anyway.

Precisely. I don't think it's likely people are going to simply take my word for it. :rolleyes:

[Rikae]

Well, Inzil ought to to a bit better job of explaining than "swayed by Nessa" if he wants to be let off the hook. Clearly the outcome was very important to him, but he wasn't the one being lynched at the end there.

Lommy voted for him, and Valier suspected him. Continued framing attempt? It's pretty extreme, for that. Double bluff? The way the lynch went yesterDay, it would seem at least one of Nessa or Inzil has to be a wolf, or at least at the time I was thinking "there wouldn't be these many waiting until the last minute unless a wolf was on the line". Still, I suppose it's always possible that the wolves are trying to push the predictable lynch of Inzil because they can (rather than because Nessa is a wolf); and, on the other hand, I don't like his passive response at all. It doesn't strike me as innocentish, certainly not framed-innocentish.

[Rikae]

Well, Inzil ought to to a bit better job of explaining than "swayed by Nessa" if he wants to be let off the hook. Clearly the outcome was very important to him, but he wasn't the one being lynched at the end there.

Lommy voted for him, and Valier suspected him. Continued framing attempt? It's pretty extreme, for that. Double bluff? The way the lynch went yesterDay, it would seem at least one of Nessa or Inzil has to be a wolf, or at least at the time I was thinking "there wouldn't be these many waiting until the last minute unless a wolf was on the line". Still, I suppose it's always possible that the wolves are trying to push the predictable lynch of Inzil because they can (rather than because Nessa is a wolf); and, on the other hand, I don't like his passive response at all. It doesn't strike me as innocentish, certainly not framed-innocentish.

[Inziladun]

Well, Inzil ought to to a bit better job of explaining than "swayed by Nessa" if he wants to be let off the hook. Clearly the outcome was very important to him, but he wasn't the one being lynched at the end there.

The outcome was important because I wanted to make the right choice. If Nessa hadn't chimed in when she did I would have gone with her.

Still, I suppose it's always possible that the wolves are trying to push the predictable lynch of Inzil because they can (rather than because Nessa is a wolf); and, on the other hand, I don't like his passive response at all. It doesn't strike me as innocentish, certainly not framed-innocentish.

You know, since I've been suspected by some from the start, and that last vote wasn't exactly a shining example of my innocence, I was feeling fairly confident I'd be a main target toDay. Like I said, I'm not going to merely fade away, but I'm resigned to the fact that this Day could be my last.

[Macalaure]

A look at the votes first.

Nessa -> Rikae (no solid reason - needs to contribute more, or eventually she'll wind up lynched)
BG -> Nessa (didn't contribute much either, but avoided the spotlight so far)
Loslote -> Kitanna
skip -> e_d (not happy with him. One I'd like to look at closer toDay)
Eomer -> Nessa(2) (not too happy with him either, but I recall that I'm always worried about him, so unless he worries me a lot, I'll let him be)
Shasta -> Lottie (I should have a closer look at his case before I pass judgement)
Pitch -> Nessa(3) (confused about him - definitely need a closer look)
Valier -> Skip
Greenie -> Inzil (not sure, not sure)
Rikae -> Lottie(2), then Inzil (3) (I don't see why wolf-Rikae would have done this; Inzil's guilt would clear her)
Lommy -> Inzil(2)
Cailín -> Lottie(2) (she thought she gave Lottie her third vote, not sure what to think of her at this point)
Mac -> Lottie(3) (I was getting worried about all the people thinking I'm innocent - sometimes giving a crucial vote for an innocent pays off :rolleyes: )
e_d -> Lottie (4) (don't know what to think at all)
Aganzir -> Nessa (4) (alright)
Legate -> Nessa(5) (alright)
Inzil -> Lottie(5) (Nessa=wolf => Inzil=bad)

Nessa's guilt would more or less clear all her voters. She was an unlikely wolf-on-wolf victim, since a bandwaggon against her was very probable from the beginning on.

Back later with thoughts about the killed and what I said above.

[Rikae]

Ok, so I double posted because of something weird going on with the site - sorry about that. Anyway:

Inzil, how does making the right choice necessitate waiting until the very last second? Also, what is "Legate 180" supposed to mean?

At any rate, it makes perfect sense IF the wolves thought Inzil was seer-dreamed to go after the possible seer(s) and sacrifice him toDay to save the rest. So it may indeed be in our best interests to go with the obvious choice, but I, for one, intend to take a close look at everyone I can.

[Mänwe]

Or what about all the quieter folk? Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills.


Quieter folk are the easiest to tarnish with the same brush and leave the greater possibility for a judgement error on behalf of their would be jurors. Although I would concede the more quiet the less likely you are to say something that'll give you away. But this reminds me of something Rikae mentioned that irked me a little

...but if we lynch a good quiet one, at least the remaining innocents will be the more helpful ones, alive or wolf-killed

I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it :p

Quiet can't be so black or white, for in those names that Legate mentioned there are those who have made the odd post, and those that have popped in to vote; two very different quiet "strategies" if you will...elronds_daughter being case in point with two very wild votes.

Also, Legate

Maybe if I scratch Greenie from that and make it one of the five, it would make the most sense, as there is a slight chance Greenie would not like to kill Ozban or Kath.)

May I ask you to clarify this point about Greenie not wanting to vote Oz or Kath?

Maybe more questions ought to be asked of the two extremes, those who just pop into vote and those who do the most talking..

[Inziladun]

Inzil, how does making the right choice necessitate waiting until the very last second? Also, what is "Legate 180" supposed to mean?

Initially, I was waiting around to see if I would get any more votes, and vote to save myself accordingly. The "Legate 180" referred to my sudden opinion change.

At any rate, it makes perfect sense IF the wolves thought Inzil was seer-dreamed to go after the possible seer(s) and sacrifice him toDay to save the rest. So it may indeed be in our best interests to go with the obvious choice, but I, for one, intend to take a close look at everyone I can.

I think I'd be a likely Seer-dream, but it doesn't concern me.

[Pitchwife]

Ach, I'm sorry Lottie. I let myself be swayed at the last second by Nessa. :( Her defense of you looked genuine. Hats off to her if she's a wolf.
Er, pardon? You think Nessa's defense of Lottie was genuine, and this prompts you to vote the one she defended? Does not compute.

I can understand where the desire to lynch me might be present. If you feel you just can't deal with the uncertainty, or you can't find anyone else who looks worse, go for it. I rather wish you wouldn't, because it won't net you a baddie, and these double kills are fast mounting up.

If you're indeed innocent, I don't think it would be such a terribly bright idea to lynch you just to know for sure, for precisely the reason you mention. Just saying.

In other news, I'm beginning to have second thoughts about Nessa. I mean, it all fits - two innocents lynched to save her two Days in a row, with a Night-kill pointing to her sandwiched between them - but isn't it all a bit obvious? And I've got to admit that her last minute defense of Lottie, at a time when it looked like she'd most likely be lynched, is a point in her favour.

Anyway, I feel I've been concentrating on her a bit too exclusively and need to have a look at some other people - after some hours of sleep. See ya.

[Inziladun]

Er, pardon? You think Nessa's defense of Lottie was genuine, and this prompts you to vote the one she defended? Does not compute.

According to the standings at the time, Nessa had five votes, Lottie had four. When Nessa came back at the last second, I acted on a gut feeling and decided to save her by voting Lottie. As I'd said, I didn't really want to vote for Lottie, but if I hadn't Nessa would have been killed. If she turns out to be a wolf, I was fooled, plain and simple.

In other news, I'm beginning to have second thoughts about Nessa. I mean, it all fits - two innocents lynched to save her two Days in a row, with a Night-kill pointing to her sandwiched between them - but isn't it all a bit obvious? And I've got to admit that her last minute defense of Lottie, at a time when it looked like she'd most likely be lynched, is a point in her favour.

I'd like Nessa to explain her vote for Rikae a bit more, myself.

Also, I think it's ironic that it's being considered that Nessa and I are packmates, when the first thing people really started suspecting me for was my criticism of her "numbers" post. :rolleyes:

[Rikae]

I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it :p

I don't mean "helpful" in the sense of actually actively doing things to help, although, of course, the louder people tend to do more of that as well, but "helpful" because we actually have something to go on. As you said, quiet people leave a greater possibility for judgment error. If I'm going to be left alive as one of three on the last Day (as seems to happen to me a lot, but I mean this in the case of anyone), I don't want to be left with two quiet players to choose between! I want plenty of evidence through which to sift, and we're all better off on any day when we have that.

If' you're going to start "TLDNR"ing, we might as well just quit. It defeats the whole purpose of WW.

Initially, I was waiting around to see if I would get any more votes, and vote to save myself accordingly. The "Legate 180" referred to my sudden opinion change.
Maybe I missed something. Is "Legate 180" a common expression these days?

Er, pardon? You think Nessa's defense of Lottie was genuine, and this prompts you to vote the one she defended? Does not compute.
My first thought on this was "good catch", and my second thought was "wait a minute. Nessa could very well genuinely defend someone and be totally wrong about them."

If I were a Pitchwolf, I'd back off Nessa now, too, if she were innocent.

Edit: X'd with Zil.

[Rikae]

I guess this is the defense of Lottie that rang with such sincerity:
But, Lottie, I don't understand. It just seems like a convenient bandwagon.

*shrug* I don't really see it. It makes sense for a wolf to proclaim the innocence of an ordo about to be lynched. Now, if she was aware that her fate was in Inzil's hands, that would be extremely selfless, weirdly so even for an innocent, but if I recall correctly, there were a few non-voters.

[Nogrod]

Maybe I missed something. Is "Legate 180" a common expression these days?More or less, yes.

I think I was in the game myself and it had to do something with Legate changing his opinion into the opposite.. and there were some drastic consequences if I recall it right.

Someone else with better memory might be able to fill you up.

But yes, I'd say it means changing your view on some issue to the opposite nowadays...

[Inziladun]

Maybe I missed something. Is "Legate 180" a common expression these days?

As a matter of fact, it's in the official glossary (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=16791).

My first thought on this was "good catch", and my second thought was "wait a minute. Nessa could very well genuinely defend someone and be totally wrong about them."

Which is how I saw it.

I guess this is the defense of Lottie that rang with such sincerity:


*shrug* I don't really see it. It makes sense for a wolf to proclaim the innocence of an ordo about to be lynched. Now, if she was aware that her fate was in Inzil's hands, that would be extremely selfless, weirdly so even for an innocent, but if I recall correctly, there were a few non-voters.

Well, I don't claim that it was a smart move on my part.

[Macalaure]

Lommy was after Inzil quite a bit, but I don't think in a way that looks seerish. Other than that, her suspicions are rather wide-spread (#272). Nessa, Skip, e_d, and Wilwa are her other main suspects, quite a few of which gathered votes yesterDay. Unless Lommy was very correct and the wolves wanted her out of the way, I think this points the other way: we were completely off and the wolves wanted us to remain off. Lommy will later back off Nessa slightly.

There were a few people who were starting to suspect Valier, so this kill is interesting. Valier thinks the wolves might be framing Inzil and later she starts suspecting Skip. In her list, she suspects Pitch, Inzil, Boro, Legate to varying degrees. Prime suspect is Skip, who she votes. I don't think her suspicion of Skip seems seer-ish either. There aren't any very strong cases except Skip, so a kill with the idea of leaving only one wrong trail seems possible.

Two people who suspected Skip more or less strongly are dead. I find it hard to believe that the wolves would be so obvious in killing off dangerous villagers. I mean, if you have two kills, would you dare to get rid of two who suspect one particular wolf at once? I would think that's too obvious.

Both also suspected Inzil. Either the wolves really enjoy torturing Inzil, or Inzil is one heck of a cocky wolf, or the wolves identified Inzil as the cobbler and are putting him to work accordingly.

Of course, it's highly unlikely that there wasn't a wolf or two in Lommy's and Valier's rather long lists of suspects, but I can't tell who it might have been.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.

But after a few Days have passed, and more substantial information is appearing...

Okay, how should I put this: I am not that sad about the two deaths toNight, because it has eliminated two people I have been rather unsure about. Which sort of clears the field.

This really gives me a strange feeling. That's an odd thing to say after losing the Hunter and two ordos in one go.

[Rikae]

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.
I'm a decent player, but I don't actually have the ability to control the whole village. That conversation about/suspicion of Pitch was just what had me placing him in a slightly more innocent category (looked like wolves were after him).

This really gives me a strange feeling. That's an odd thing to say after losing the Hunter and two ordos in one go.
You know, on the one hand, it looks like something no wolf would dare say. And, on the other hand, it looks like something a wolf would say, knowing no wolf would be expected to dare.

[Rikae]

You know what's funny? I suspect everyone else that has posted so far (and where is everyone else? We're three hours in!) except Mac.
Perhaps I should suspect him as well.

Mac, why are you sitting over there looking so suspicious? Oh yeah, the goatee. Explain it!

There, my obligatory wolf on wolf... er, I mean... :D

[Mänwe]

I don't mean "helpful" in the sense of actually actively doing things to help, although, of course, the louder people tend to do more of that as well, but "helpful" because we actually have something to go on...If I'm going to be left alive as one of three on the last Day (as seems to happen to me a lot, but I mean this in the case of anyone), I don't want to be left with two quiet players to choose between! I want plenty of evidence through which to sift, and we're all better off on any day when we have that.

Point noted.

Now, i'm off to sleep before work tomorrow.

[Nessa Telrunya]

You know what's funny? I suspect everyone else that has posted so far (and where is everyone else? We're three hours in!) except Mac.
Perhaps I should suspect him as well.

Mac, why are you sitting over there looking so suspicious? Oh yeah, the goatee. Explain it!

There, my obligatory wolf on wolf... er, I mean... :D

Perhaps everyone has weekendy things to attend to? I myself am more able to post, precisely because it is the weekend.

Goatees are only incriminating on females, not so sure about Mac. :p:p

[Rikae]

Now you did it. Now no one wants to post because it will reveal them as losers with nothing to do on the weekend!

:D

[Cailín]

Just some quick notes because the hour is late here and I should go to sleep.

I am sorry Lommy was killed. I had her down as an innocent from Day 1, and I know most people trusted her. I'll have a look at her posts but think she was a target simply because of that.

Valier however... I think the wolves might have seen a potential Seer in her. She's always been very good at uncovering wolves and her suspicion of Skip was random enough (as in, she did not give any empirical evidence or analysis and she was the only one really singling him out as a wolf). I don't think we should disregard that - even if she did not dream of him, I would not ignore InnocentValier's suspicions. Definitely will be looking at Skip toDay.

Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills.

As if. When I am a wolf I don't kill awkwardly. I kill with poise, always.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Now you did it. Now no one wants to post because it will reveal them as losers with nothing to do on the weekend!

:D

Or everyone went to Medieval Times without us. :eek:

Ouch. That hurt just to think about. Everyone meeting knights without me? :Merisu:

When I am a wolf I don't kill awkwardly. I kill with poise, always.

The Night kills have all been very strangely-placed; everyone is either no-trace, tied to someone with a high profile case going on, or overtly conspicuous.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I would just like to point out that a nearly-indecent amount of discussion this game has been about things that 'just HAVE to be too obvious for a wolf to do'. I'm not sure what it means, but I felt it needed to be pointed out.

Back later.

[Macalaure]

I need to clear my head about him.

Pitchwife

Day 1

#15Well, the wolves obviously know more than we do, but the cobbler not so much, as of now - so xe will indeed probably want to make xyrself known to the pack in time.Hint to the cobbler?
Yep, the double Night-Kill sucks for us, and getting rid of it is imperative. I'm not sure if I'd like to risk the Seer for it - as long as the Ranger is still alive, maybe it's worth it.Very carefully pushing the idea that the seer should reveal after the first dreamt wolf.

#22 - defends Cailín's early vote.

#27 - asks Sally and Rikae regarding their suspicion, understandably.

Early Day1 in general - much role/rule talk, but a few actual points, so that's good - his tone is oddly relaxed though, but maybe that's just him. He looks pretty well for the rest of the day until voting time

He clears his mind in #110, but then the next few posts are just chat, like he's killing time for an opportune moment to cast the vote. (1h time between #110 and his vote in #132, with a few meaningless posts in between.) Usually an innocent would use the time to make up their mind some more.

His vote makes sense considering what he said before (with me and e_d in the running other than Nessa), but why the unproductive waiting period?


Day 2

Starts out using Ozban's death to go after Nessa more (all of #183). This looks like it could have been planned. His second post is about Kath, but he finds nothing of note. Goes after Inzil a bit.

#189 implies that he thinks the Sally-waggon was innocently fueled, which is odd, since it overtook the waggon he himself fueled. It's uncommon to clear an opposing bandwaggon of suspicion, especially without much reasons. Attempt not to ruffle innocent feathers?

#262 - his q&a for me looks innocent.

#275
I still don't think Zil looks particularly wolvish (and I think suspecting him because his first post was made too quickly is rather flimsy)This might be nitpicky, but I don't like the "still" here. I understand why one might step away from Inzil based on flimsy reasons, but he sounds defensive here, without any reason.

Inzil was the only person other than Nessa he brought forth any reasons against. This fits with the "not ruffling innocent feathers". He predictably votes for Nessa again.


Day 3

#333 today he backs away from Nessa and instead goes after Inzil again. Not much variation.


I can't condemn him - there are too many stretches where he looks rather innocent. However, I think there are some points which paint a dark picture.

[Boromir88]

Two people who suspected Skip more or less strongly are dead. I find it hard to believe that the wolves would be so obvious in killing off dangerous villagers. I mean, if you have two kills, would you dare to get rid of two who suspect one particular wolf at once? I would think that's too obvious.


Unless Skip feared he has been dreamed of, and with double the chances of killing the seer, went for two people who suspected him.

More on that.

[Rikae]

Same goes for Inzil, as I mentioned.

[Boromir88]

Same goes for Inzil, as I mentioned.

The thing with Inzil's clear 180 flip is it's an extremely obvious tip-off. I don't know if the wolves would stick out their neck that far to save another, even with the 2-kill incentive, since that basically condemns both of them.

Unless, with his packmate Nessa being the one in danger, and in order to preserve the 2-kills saved her, and then went after two people who suspected him, fearing the seer had dreamed of him already?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Quieter folk are the easiest to tarnish with the same brush and leave the greater possibility for a judgement error on behalf of their would be jurors. Although I would concede the more quiet the less likely you are to say something that'll give you away. But this reminds me of something Rikae mentioned that irked me a little

I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it :p

Quiet can't be so black or white, for in those names that Legate mentioned there are those who have made the odd post, and those that have popped in to vote; two very different quiet "strategies" if you will...elronds_daughter being case in point with two very wild votes.

Also, Legate

May I ask you to clarify this point about Greenie not wanting to vote Oz or Kath?

Maybe more questions ought to be asked of the two extremes, those who just pop into vote and those who do the most talking..

Okay, since I am answering your question, first a comment also to the first part - of course I am not putting all the quiet ones into the same cathegory, and I in fact usually don't make such generalising suspicions, but this was just a thought: and for this time, of all, it would make sense. Because of the awkward kills, indeed. So I am actually considering such possibility, or at least, thinking that the "quiet" ones might be the key. Anything is possible.

And as for the thing about Greenie not killing Oz and Kath: I am not 100% sure (well, not by far! more like 50%, but still), I believe Greenie might have raised some objections to Ozzy being killed so early on, given that they haven't been playing together much, and this is Ozzy's second game. It is slightly meta-reasoning, and I am not giving it that much weight, like I said, but if the kills were made completely randomly (as it seems to me - no real Seer-reasoning, etc.), I could imagine she would have chosen somebody else for a random first kill. Similarly with Kath, I could imagine her wanting to play with her for longer time than just one Day, if possible. Of course, like I have already said before about similar subject, one Wolf's choices can be overriden by packmates etc., but still, it is a factor: usually, if one Wolf says: "No, I would prefer not to kill XY", then others usually follow it, unless they have really good and really important reasons to do it.

I think I was in the game myself and it had to do something with Legate changing his opinion into the opposite.. and there were some drastic consequences if I recall it right.

Someone else with better memory might be able to fill you up.
Indeed, drastic consequences; just to clarify it, I was innocent and ended up lynched after being accused of unexplainably changing my opinions.

Two people who suspected Skip more or less strongly are dead. I find it hard to believe that the wolves would be so obvious in killing off dangerous villagers. I mean, if you have two kills, would you dare to get rid of two who suspect one particular wolf at once? I would think that's too obvious.
I agree with that. I am really wondering what kind of Wolves we have. What makes the most sense would be WWs who are quite logical and are trying to lead us away by planting fake baits (Nessa, Zil...) in front of us: but in that case, who would that be?

This is most puzzling, as basically most my suspects turn somewhat less likely to be actually Wolves. Skip would now make a lot less sense. There is still Rikae or Boro. I am just... puzzled.

And for that matter, I would really most likely drop Zil for toDay. Let's also not forget what he himself had said, that he was the likely target for a Seer dream after what he has done. Maybe we should not worry about that.

As if. When I am a wolf I don't kill awkwardly. I kill with poise, always.
Well, haven't played with you much, so I cannot say how would you kill, but in any case, you haven't been playing recently, which means that you would not probably make any difference between killing Ozban was here just in his second game and others who haven't likely been around when you have last played (quite several people, I'd imagine).

The thing with Inzil's clear 180 flip is it's an extremely obvious tip-off. I don't know if the wolves would stick out their neck that far to save another, even with the 2-kill incentive, since that basically condemns both of them.

Unless, with his packmate Nessa being the one in danger, and in order to preserve the 2-kills saved her, and then went after two people who suspected him, fearing the seer had dreamed of him already?

If the latter was the case, we are living inside a horror. *dreads* I mean, if the WWs are already for two Nights doing nothing more than worrying about that they have been basically all caught this far and it is only a matter of time before they are lynched one by one, and yet still we in fact don't lynch either of them this far, it must be a rather pleasing picture for them.

But in general, I agree with the preceding statement - that is, it indeed condemns both of them, and it would mean at most one more Day of life - unless they indeed counted it being so obvious that we would not dare to count it as a Wolf-save. A true double-bluff.

[A Little Green]

Inzil looks bad. I don't know if the wolves would really take so much pains to frame a single innocent. To state the obvious, he is either

a) a misguided innocent who honestly made a mistake at the end of yesterDay. Possible, I suppose. However, the timing of his vote is as last minute as can be, it looks calculated. The resigned attitude toDay doesn't look innocent to me, either. We need to catch a wolf, and if he is innocent he should speak out for himself so we don't make the wrong choice.

b) a wolf. If Inzil is a wolf, it would point to Nessa being one too, otherwise he wouldn't have bothered. It would have been a pretty extreme move for a wolf though, since in saving one wolf he would have two of them highly suspected the next Day. Is the two kills per Night advantage that important to them? Or do we have an insanely bold pack who decided to sacrifice half of them to cause havoc and let the other half slip by unnoticed? No, it wouldn't make sense unless Inzil believed himself already seer-dreamed, but the Night's kills speak against that - neither Valier nor Lommy seemed like Seers who had dreamed Inzilwolf. Or was he just otherwise certain he and Nessa were going to be suspected the next Day anyway?

c) a cobbler. This is actually beginning to look like the most sensible option to me. A cobbler would be ready to make a drastic move to save a believed wolf from the gallows - or even, come to think of it, an innocent, thus misleading the village royally. His "kill me if you like, but you're wasting your time" -attitude looks quite cobblerish, too. If I have the time I might go through Inzil's early posts to see if there is anything resembling a cobbler hint. His previous behaviour struck me more wolvish than cobblerish though.

Gah. Enough about Inzil, there are sixteen other people to look at. Well, fifteen. For example, I haven't seen any talk at all about the Lottie-wagon. What, exactly, were the arguments for lynching her?

Nonetheless, I think it is about time for us to get a Wolf. The village is getting smaller, too small for four Wolves AND two kills per Night. Also, the fact that even the Cobbler is still around makes me rather nervous.

So... what about those of my suspects, then, who are still alive. Skip, Boro, Rikae? Nessa, who escaped the gallows yesterDay, and what about again Zil, her gallant savior? And who knows about Pitchwife? Or what about all the quieter folk? Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills. Maybe if I scratch Greenie from that and make it one of the five, it would make the most sense, as there is a slight chance Greenie would not like to kill Ozban or Kath.)I'm not fond of Legate's tone here. The first paragraph is pessimistic, which is doubtlessly how the wolves want us to feel. The second is the classic wishy-washy Legate, he pretty much says that everyone could be a wolf actually, without being definite about anyone. And, like Cailín, I don't quite approve of him saying that us as wolves would account for awkward kills!


EDIT: ouch, x-ed with Legate's novel! :D

[A Little Green]

And as for the thing about Greenie not killing Oz and Kath: I am not 100% sure (well, not by far! more like 50%, but still), I believe Greenie might have raised some objections to Ozzy being killed so early on, given that they haven't been playing together much, and this is Ozzy's second game. It is slightly meta-reasoning, and I am not giving it that much weight, like I said, but if the kills were made completely randomly (as it seems to me - no real Seer-reasoning, etc.), I could imagine she would have chosen somebody else for a random first kill. Similarly with Kath, I could imagine her wanting to play with her for longer time than just one Day, if possible. Of course, like I have already said before about similar subject, one Wolf's choices can be overriden by packmates etc., but still, it is a factor: usually, if one Wolf says: "No, I would prefer not to kill XY", then others usually follow it, unless they have really good and really important reasons to do it.I'm not sure how relevant this is but there's a point I want to make. For the first thing, yes, a wolf-me probably wouldn't have killed Ozzy that early since it was only his second game and he plays rather seldom, unless of course I suspected him to be the Seer. As for Kath though, I love her, but regardless of my role I don't make choices in WW based on who are my friends in RL. I don't think that's fair. (It's the same thing as why I get annoyed if people use reasons like "I like him/her, therefore I won't vote them" even early in the game. It's wolves we're hunting, not people who aren't our special friends.) Sorry, out of proportion rant. This is just a topic I feel rather strongly about.

[A Little Green]

I will probably have to vote really early toDay, maybe something like three or four hours from now. I might be back before DL but since I can't be sure I rather vote early to be on the safe side. I can then use my retraction if I return in time and if I consider it necessary. I'd like to have a look at Eomer, Elra, Wilwa and Cailín at least, I'm not sure if I have time for all of that. They are not necessarily submarines, but they are people I have no opinion of, and people that are not really talked about much.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back with some general thoughts...

This far, as I said, I'd be suspicious of Rikae, but be it not for her retraction yesterDay. Since Lottie is innocent, it is somewhat hard to imagine Wolf to retract like this.

I went through Greenie's posts now too and they also look more innocent-ish to me than not.

I might really want to focus on and possibly vote for some of the "quiet ones" toDay. But that means LRH (whose vote yesterDay was rather suspiciously placed, at least, and question is about the first Day, as we don't know about Pitch's guilt or innocence) BG, possibly Mänwe (though I am careful about suspecting him too easily, after the last fiasco I remember from when playing with him, it was all too easy to lynch him). I am going to focus on them a bit.

I also should try to take once again a new, "from-scratch", objective look at Nessa...

I don't want to lynch Zil just now. Only if I don't come up with anything better.

Also wondering if I should start looking at Shasta more closely. He's been slipping under my radar quite interestingly enough.

Will be around or back later...

[Macalaure]

Unless Skip feared he has been dreamed of, and with double the chances of killing the seer, went for two people who suspected him.But you don't just fear to be dreamed of, you usually suspect one particular person to have dreamed of you (by their behaviour towards you) and kill that one. A lone wolf might get extremely nervous and behave like that, but with three comrades to keep him in check? This would only make sense if the wolves decided to throw Skip under the bus, subtly, but with the second kill tied to the fourth wolf, that's nonsense.

I agree with that. I am really wondering what kind of Wolves we have. What makes the most sense would be WWs who are quite logical and are trying to lead us away by planting fake baits (Nessa, Zil...) in front of us: but in that case, who would that be?Maybe we need to be logical as well. :D

[Macalaure]

I might really want to focus on and possibly vote for some of the "quiet ones" toDay.

I don't mean to imply that quiet players can't be logical, but doesn't what I quoted from you up there suggest that there are at least two seasoned loud ones in the pack?

[Aganzir]

My first thought on this was "good catch", and my second thought was "wait a minute. Nessa could very well genuinely defend someone and be totally wrong about them."
Which is how I saw it.
So you thought Nessa was wrong about Lottie - whom you didn't particularly want to lynch either? :p

As I said Lommy's death doesn't come as a surprise - but according to my notes, nobody thought Valier was innocent. I'm wondering if they went for her as a potential seer - or if their real target was Lommy as a potential seer and they threw in Valier just to confuse us. I don't like the situation too much: the kills seem to implicate certain people who have been suspected anyway, but we can't tell if they are actually wolves or if the wolves just want us to believe so, and we never lynch any of them.

a wolf. If Inzil is a wolf, it would point to Nessa being one too, otherwise he wouldn't have bothered.
Actually it would be very convenient for a wolf to frame an innocent like that, and I wouldn't put it past Zil. He's been under a lot of suspicion and knew he's probably going down sooner or later.
And even if they're both wolves, I think it would have been worth it to save her. As far as I recall, neither of them had been attacking the other strongly, so giving the decisive vote wouldn't necessarily have cleaned them. And if two wolves are suspected heavily, their actions are often damage control rather than trying to wriggle out of the noose.

And, like Cailín, I don't quite approve of him saying that us as wolves would account for awkward kills!
I misread this as "I don't quite approve of him saying that us wolves would account for awkward kills!" You should've seen my face. :p

By the way, if we don't get any wolves (or ranger saves), it will be 5-6 the day after tomorrow.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I don't mean to imply that quiet players can't be logical, but doesn't what I quoted from you up there suggest that there are at least two seasoned loud ones in the pack?
That is option 1. Basically the options, as I see it, are two: Either we have a pack composed fully of quiet ones, and then the kills are indeed rather of the "simple" sort, or then we have a pack with some truly seasoned players as you say, and then, who knows. But in any case, at least after looking at LRH and BG, they have rather interesting way of voting, particularly the former, like I said. But that's not all yet, I have to think about it.

Actually it would be very convenient for a wolf to frame an innocent like that, and I wouldn't put it past Zil. He's been under a lot of suspicion and knew he's probably going down sooner or later.
That's another look at the situation.

Hmm. Basically the point is that we need to lynch a Wolf. I think that will at least make us determine a bit what kind of logic the WWs were using during the kills etc. That way, it would be good to lynch e.g. Inzil or Nessa, but again, maybe that's exactly what the WWs want us to do. And that's not to say, if for example Zil is a Cobbler...

[Macalaure]

Would like to skip for now
Nessa
Inzil
Skip

I don't think so
Aganzir (only one who's really looking innocent to me at the moment)
Greenie (innocent feeling, too)

No idea
e_d
Mänwe

Not unthinkable
Shasta
Wilwa
Rikae
BG
Cailín

Possible
Eomer (always have a hard time figuring him out. There's no question about him being a shrewd and logical wolf, though)
Legate (I suddenly have a bad feeling and I'm not sure why)

Very possible
Pitch
Boro
(as I said before)

I'm very uncomfortable with my large grey zone. One problem is, I think, that with a pack of four, we likely have some leader and some follower types in the pack. How do you detect a follower wolf unless they slip up during the day?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I'm very uncomfortable with my large grey zone. One problem is, I think, that with a pack of four, we likely have some leader and some follower types in the pack. How do you detect a follower wolf unless they slip up during the day?

The main point in this game this far is, with "leader" and "followers", you need to have such a "leader" that he/she approves of the kills which have been made. That really makes it a lot more difficult to figure it out with some quick and simple scheme. There are several people I cannot imagine doing it - unless it is just the reason why they are doing it. That all comes down to what I have said a few posts before, once we could lynch one Wolf, it would shed some light on the way they might have been planning this to be.

[A Little Green]

That is option 1. Basically the options, as I see it, are two: Either we have a pack composed fully of quiet ones, and then the kills are indeed rather of the "simple" sort, or then we have a pack with some truly seasoned players as you say, and then, who knows. But in any case, at least after looking at LRH and BG, they have rather interesting way of voting, particularly the former, like I said. But that's not all yet, I have to think about it.I don't like the assumption that quiet wolves make simple kills, or that seasoned players are loud by default. It doesn't make sense to me.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate

[A Little Green]

ALMOST COMFORTABLE WITH
Macalaure - Nothing alarming this far, seems genuine.
Shasta - Likewise, though past experience has taught me never to trust him.
Rikae - Seems okay this far.
Boro - Could go either way. At the moment I'm leaning innocent on him, too. (Though I began having second thoughts as soon as I had written that.. Agh, I might use a closer look at him, too.)

NO IDEA
Eomer - Curiously enough he's under my radar, among the first I'll check when I have the time.
Wilwa - Looked slightly suspicious early on Day 1, then had a small quarrel with Agan that left me really confused, and now she's under dear Rudolph.
Ed - A classic submarine for me, no idea.
Pitchwife - Still no idea.
Blind Guardian - Too little to go on.
Mänwe - Too little to go on.
Aganzir - A headache. I'm leaving her alone for toDay.
Caílin - See Eomer.

NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
Nessa - I'm not comfortable with her track record. Her role could tell us a lot about others. The thing that bothers me most about her is that she's being too calm for an innocent openly framed by the wolves.
Inziladun - Agh. I think I've ranted enough about him already. Leaning wolf or cobbler at this point. I found him suspicious already before the Legate 180 -episode, and I'm still unconvinced an innocent Zil would have done that.
Skip - If he's a wolf, he's a daring one. But he has done bold moves before, and Valier's death does point at him.
Legate - Makes me uneasy. He's fishy on top of his normal wishy-washy.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I don't like the assumption that quiet wolves make simple kills, or that seasoned players are loud by default. It doesn't make sense to me.

It is not like that, but I am speaking about BG, LRH, who definitely are quiet, and possibly Mänwe, of whom I don't know, but he has not been around for long.

Let me explain it once again. The point is not only about quiet wolves or something, but more about who would make the kills like these that were done. I would expect seasoned players - those who have been Wolves many times - to go mainly after the Seer. Which does not seem to be the case at least of the first Day, in my opinion. Ergo, for this reason, it would make more sense to suspect the players like LRH, BG, Nessa, perhaps Mänwe, and others, but not e.g. Mac, Rikae, Pitch, Zil, Agan, Boro... those are the people whom I would expect to make more "logical" kills.

The puzzling thing about this is that it makes it really difficult to find four Wolves among the rest of the players: there won't be too many left.

But of course, aside from that, a bit of meta-reasoning, I find it unlikely that some of the people who have been playing lately would kill Ozzy if they did not have good reason for it (which it seems to me that they didn't). That would rule out most of the people who have been playing lately, and would point more towards people who haven't been playing for some time or who themselves are not around very long: Rikae, Cailín, Mänwe, Mac, of those who have been playing recently but are not long for such a long time yet or whom I could imagine not minding as much whom they kill, maybe BG, LRH, Nessa, possibly also Eomer (?) or Wilwa (?)...

So basically, if I somehow combine this, then that gives the scope of my suspects. Which points more to the "quiet" ones.

But, to finish fully and give all that I am considering, there is the other possibility of the Wolves being fully logical and really following something with their kills - only we don't know what (framing Zil or Nessa, etc, etc), that's why we really desperately need to lynch first at least one of them (that's what I have said already several times, now it is in full context and I hope clear what I have in mind). Because then we might be able to figure out what is that they were doing.

EDIT: xed with one Green.

[Aganzir]

Inzil, why did you leave voting until so late?

10 minutes before the DL Inzil says he doesn't particularly want to vote for Lottie but he would to save himself.

8 minutes before the DL, I ask if anyone considers skip or ed. The votes are Lottie-4, Inzil-3, Nessa-3 while both skip & ed (and a couple of others) have one.

6 minutes before the DL Legate replies he might vote for skip but not in that situation.

5 minutes before the DL Inzil replies he could vote for ed because of her easy votes.
I say I'm probably voting for Nessa but might also go for Inzil.

4 minutes before the DL I vote for Nessa. Nessa-4, Lottie-4, Inzil-3. Five people are still left to vote.

3 minutes before the DL Legate votes for Nessa. Nessa-5, Lottie-4, Inzil-3. Four people left to vote, one of them Inzil himself (the remaining three hadn't posted to say they were here).

1 minute before the DL Nessa posts.

At the DL, Legate says he should've waited until later with his vote (I was very confused at first, thinking he would've voted for someone else instead if he had seen Nessa's post, but he clarified he was afraid of being outvoted).
Inzil waits till it's almost DL:01 and votes for Lottie without an explanation other than "Legate-180". I suppose that was a necessary addition given that he had expressed concern of Nessa in #222 - but he hadn't given any inclination that he considered voting for her, unlike Lottie (whom he could have voted to save himself), so it feels somehow self-conscious to me.

This doesn't really help me make up my mind about Inzil though. I'd be inclined to lynch him (at least rather than Nessa) just to be on the safe side but I'm worried what happens if he isn't a baddie after all.

[Aganzir]

I don't like Legate's meta-reasoning. It makes me feel a bit better about him though because I think a wolf would actually bother to come up with more appropriate reasons to suspect people.

Also, just saying that I could kill Ozban on night 2 even in my first game with him if I had a reason to. And that as long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they found seerish.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Also, just saying that I could kill Ozban on night 2 even in my first game with him if I had a reason to. And that as long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they found seerish.

I would not give that much credit to it either. But exactly as you said, you would kill him if you had reason to. I was not able to see any good reason to, even for possible Seerishness which somebody brought up, I believe he surely must not have been the only one, and maybe somebody would have had even more Seerish-looking personality.

I really don't know about Zil, because I can imagine that a) he might be just being framed, b) he might be a Cobbler (even more likely) - and in such case, I would prefer to lynch a Wolf to a Cobbler still. (And I know, I know, let's not start the debate about the dangerousness of the Cobbler, the point this time is, that I do not even know for sure if he is a Cobbler... basically it all comes down to if I can find anybody better to vote, anybody who looks more like a Wolf. My best pick would have been Rikae, but then again, we are back at the question if she would have taken part in the kills as they were - rather cluelessly-seeming - and also her retraction, as I said above, makes it look more like what innocent would do. So, now what...).

[A Little Green]

Ah. Thanks Legate, you're making much more sense now. (Or rather, I understand what you're saying now.) I don't know about the Ozzy kill though, it's a bit strange how you don't consider the possibility of that being an attempt to get the Seer. It's like Agan said, until we know who the wolves are we can't know who they found Seerish.

If a wolvish master plan to mess with our heads exists, I'm pretty convinced Legate is evil. If it doesn't, he's looking slightly better.

[Aganzir]

Nessa --- The thing that bothers me most about her is that she's being too calm for an innocent openly framed by the wolves.
But not too calm to be a wolf who's twice been the runner-up for the lynch?

I was not able to see any good reason to, even for possible Seerishness which somebody brought up
How about "Agan wouldn't surely kill him first, therefore she's probably innocent?"

Inzil might be the cobbler. Or he might be a wolf pretending to be the cobbler. Or an innocent with extremely bad luck.
However if he turns out to be the cobbler, or Nessa to be a wolf, we need to find out why he saved her. Did someone tip him off?

My best pick would have been Rikae, but then again, we are back at the question if she would have taken part in the kills as they were - rather cluelessly-seeming - and also her retraction, as I said above, makes it look more like what innocent would do.
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, but I don't think the kills look clueless. True, they haven't caught the seer yet - but I think they're being very efficient at bewildering us. (So I disagree on any notion of "quiet"/newbie wolves.)

As for Rikae's retraction, it certainly doesn't make me think her more innocent (even if it doesn't make me more suspicious of her either). Rikae knows full well how to appear innocent whatever her role.

[A Little Green]

But not too calm to be a wolf who's twice been the runner-up for the lynch?When you put it like that it sounds silly, yes. What I meant was that a wolf would have the time to get her bearings. She would know what is happening and why. In contrast to an innocent who is being constantly suspected by the village and framed by the wolves.

Ok, I need to dash now. Will see if I x-posted and then vote and be off.

[A Little Green]

Alrighty, then. I'm going with the best lead I have and vote

++ Inziladun

I hope to be able to make it back before DL, but I'm not sure.

[Inziladun]

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.

This, at least, is consistent with what she said earlier (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=645744&postcount=147).

So you thought Nessa was wrong about Lottie - whom you didn't particularly want to lynch either?

Already explained that. Nessa's last post induced me to want to save her, even though I didn't see Lottie as all that suspicious.

And even if they're both wolves, I think it would have been worth it to save her. As far as I recall, neither of them had been attacking the other strongly, so giving the decisive vote wouldn't necessarily have cleaned them. And if two wolves are suspected heavily, their actions are often damage control rather than trying to wriggle out of the noose.

That's true. And in this game, I think the wolves would not be so quick to "bus" one another. They want the double kills to go on as long as possible.


Inzil, why did you leave voting until so late?

I was at work. Believe it or not, though I do my best to prioritize and not let things interfere with WW, there are times when I have to get some other things done. ;)

Inzil waits till it's almost DL:01 and votes for Lottie without an explanation other than "Legate-180". I suppose that was a necessary addition given that he had expressed concern of Nessa in #222 - but he hadn't given any inclination that he considered voting for her, unlike Lottie (whom he could have voted to save himself), so it feels somehow self-conscious to me.

I'd said in other places that I wasn't comfortable with Nessa. Here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=645848&postcount=196) I'd suggested to Kit that Nessa could be her hunt. So yes, I thought "Legate 180" might explain what I was doing.

Speaking of Kit, nothing from her toDay. Gone for good, then? :(

This doesn't really help me make up my mind about Inzil though. I'd be inclined to lynch him (at least rather than Nessa) just to be on the safe side but I'm worried what happens if he isn't a baddie after all.

I'm telling you that evil as I may appear, killing me will not help this village.

[Cailín]

Valier

#25 Confused about the deadline. Says Boromir88 perhaps looks too reasonable and asks Aganzir for an explanation of her feminist statement on the gender identity of the Seer (sort of a bewildering thing to do).

#81 Nothing

#90 Thinks Pitch and Nessa look fairly innocent. Wilwa looks ok. Expresses some suspicion of Rikae and Shasta, and thinks Lommy and Greenie are quiet in an OOC kind of way.

#91 Agrees with Wilwa.

#102 Suspects Inzil because of his vote for Nessa, and thinks she will vote Inzil or Rikae. (she is pretty consistently defending Nessa here)

#107 Some Seer-related comments. Does not approve of people trying to tell the Seer what to do.

#109 Agrees with Wilwa again

#139 & 140 Questions Lottie. Still suspicious of Inzil because of the vote for Nessa. Votes Inzil.

#146 Accepts Lottie's answer

#167 Thinks Inzil might be being framed by the death of Kath and Oz, or trying to be clever

#199 Agrees with Mac and thinks Kath and Oz were easy, traceless kills. Wonders why the wolves did not go for the Seer (honestly, if our wolf pack is incompetent - which is doubtful in this village - they will definitely after all the remarks we made about it). Defends herself and proclaims her Innocence.

#247 suspects Legate and Skip

#271 A list. Most of the people are don't knows - this is a very vague list for someone whom the wolves might have believed to be the Seer. The only possible Seer statement is on Rikae (whom she suspected yesterDay and thinks innocent now) and Skip whom she suddenly suspects quite strongly. Then again, she does not immediately vote for skip but mentions a whole list of possibles.

#281 Still defends Nessa and votes Skip.

So if the wolves thought Valier was the Seer, then Nessa and Rikae are looking fairly good, and Skip looks bad. I am not convinced - Valier was obviously not the Seer and I cannot quite see how the wolves would have confused her for one - but I will keep this in mind as I go over the posts of those of us actually still alive.

[Rikae]

Mac, I don't think it's so unlikely for a wolf to think either of two people might be a seer who dreamt him. Thinking that, the pack might eliminate both at once and plan to pass it off as a bluff, and, if that doesn't work, throw the "almost certainly dreamed" wolf under the bus. I would, anyway.

I keep disagreeing with Mac, but I find him innocentish. In his favor, he's very conscientious about new players, so I doubt he would have been OK with killing Oz so early.

I have bad feelings, still, about Pitch and Inzil, and also, although less formed, about Legate and Skip. I fear, though I can't imagne there isn't a wolf among them, that I don't judge between them well since I tend to place them all in the same "group" mentally - skillful, logical male players who joined the 'downs after I did and make rather controlled posts (although Skip's hunter joke might edge him out of that group).

I don't see much use in trying to determine the makeup of the pack with regard to loud and quiet... the village is roughly half and half, but wolves choose based on their individual paranoias, hunches, prejudices, etc. - not how loud or quiet they are - and a pack tends to zero in on someone multiple wolves want to kill, even if it's for different reasons. At least, in my experience, that's how it is - a voting sort of process. Trying to reconstruct it from the village side of things tends to be a bit of a distraction, actually, although there are some things - like who would not likely have killed Oz - that we can deduce.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I don't know about the Ozzy kill though, it's a bit strange how you don't consider the possibility of that being an attempt to get the Seer. It's like Agan said, until we know who the wolves are we can't know who they found Seerish.
Of course it might have been, I would just imagine that the WWs could have had other targets too.

But anyway, maybe I am overcombinating stuff too and perhaps the WWs are simply going for those who suspect them, in which case it would be really simple and the Wolves are like Nessa, Zil and some others and we are just wasting days worrying about nothing when we should just lynch them.

How about "Agan wouldn't surely kill him first, therefore she's probably innocent?"
That's of course one of the main reasons why I am not suspecting you yet ;)

Speaking of Kit, nothing from her toDay. Gone for good, then? :(
Her death (of her own resignation) is in the narration, I figure she told Nog she was pulling off for good.

I will be gone soon probably for a few hours, but will appear before DL for sure, and then vote.

[Cailín]

Went over Lommy's posts too, of course. She changed her mind about Inzil and Nessa over Night - both going from innocent to guilty in her eyes. Her first list was unSeerish with no certain statements, though she has consistently singled out Boromir88 as guiltless (and some others, but Boromir with the most constant conviction). Her second list was equally unSeerish and she had a reasonable argument for her suspicion of Zil (believing him to know who was going to be killed before it was announced because of his fast response to the Night's events). She was flip-flopping on Nessa.

Lommy was almost certainly not a we-are-looking-for-the-Seer kill but a let's-get-her-now-before-she-starts-making-sense kill or something involving Inzil (bluff, double bluff, you all know the drill).

[Inziladun]

I find it curious that two of the most quiet players, who would seemingly be good "no-trail" kills, are still with us. I thought I'd look at ed.

Day 1

Right, well, I had been content to sit and watch everyone else debate and glean what I could (mostly because I'm no good at thinking strategically at all), but I should probably say a brief piece before DL.

Mac and Boro have amused me greatly. In an unrelated item, they also make the most sense to me. I can't pinpoint why, but there doesn't seem anything particularly wolfish about them.

I agree with Legate's point about Inzil not coming across as suspiciously as last time.

So. Not voting any of those four. Yet.

Pitch seems shady, for reasons others have mentioned. If it was just "Hey, wait, why me?", then I wouldn't be so worried, but it's been "Hey, wait, why me? Also, here's a lot of words to make me seem like I'm contributing."

Agan doesn't look too bad to me, maybe a little shifty, but I'll have to go back and read through things again. I'll do the same with Lottie, since I'm not entirely sure where Legate's vote came from...

Right, that's it from me for now. I'll be back briefly before DL to vote, but likely not much more; I have to do rather a lot of driving today.

I guess the noteworthy thing here is that she finds Pitch "shady", when many others had already cast suspicion on him as well.

Nothing else until a late vote:

++ Pitch

Sorry for cutting it so close. And I sincerely hope I'm not wrong...this feels like a shot in the dark...

At that time, Nessa was in the lead with four votes. I had three, and Pitch had two. It's unlikely at least that ed and Nessa are packmates, since ed's obvious move to save her would have been to vote for me instead of Pitch.

Day 2

I'll try to give a more substantial post once I've had some sleep, but my feelings at the moment are...

Mac makes sense to me, and I can't seem him being guilty.

Inzil is behaving not at all like the Inzilawolf I have seen before, so I'm inclined to trust him.

I'm mildly worried about almost everyone who killed Sally. The lack of adequate reasoning bewilders me; but, then again, it may just have been Day-1 paranoia.

I still don't like the vibes I'm getting from Pitch.

Eomer worries me. There is a bit too much defensiveness...

Not really sure about other people. Legate is very analytical, but seems to me he's usually like that.

On the whole Kitanna situation...this is highly tragic. There may be tears.

Right, well. Now I've said my piece and I'm off to bed.

So, she's still not liking Pitch. Also worried about Eomer, and the people on the Sally-wagon. Says she doesn't think Mac looks guilty, and is inclined to trust me.

Some scattered thoughts:

I've tried to read through as thoroughly as I can, but I don't think my brain has come to terms with it all yet.

I agree with (I think it was Shasta's's) point that we should wait on lynching Kit until toMorrow, if we even want to at all. There are pros and cons to consider.

Boro is a little worrisome, but Eomer and Pitch are more so.

Shasta is quieter than I expected him to be, which is a bit unnerving, but that's probably just unreasonable expectations on my part.

Inzil's first post toDay, and everyone's reactions to it, have begun to make me doubt his innocence somewhat.

Rikae could go either way. Having not played with her before, I'm very unsure.

I'll be back in a bit to vote. Hopefully I'll have made more sense of things by then.

Doesn't want to lynch Kit. Still worried about Pitch and Eomer, but she's now added Boro to the list of suspects. She now thinks I'm suspicious for my first post of the Day, which, honestly, is a silly reason to suspect me. It really isn't that difficult to scan the previous Day's votes, you know. She admits that other people thinking I looked bad for that post have influenced her thinking.

I have a feeling my "maybe I should just be quiet so I won't say something stupid in my second game" is working just as well as "maybe I should talk a lot so I don't seem suspiciously quiet" last time. Phooey.

Thus, I'm not inclined to let considerations and votes for me alter my opinion of people.

I still think Inzil's mostly all right.

So.

++ Lottie

She seems the shadiest of all. Her Kit vote after the consensus had been to not vote that direction just seems to much like an easy way out.

Apparently decided I was all right after all. Disregarded earlier suspects in favor of Lottie, not liking her vote for revealed Hunter Kit. Rikae had said the same thing and had voted for Lottie, before retracting and voting for me. When ed voted, Nessa, Lottie and I were tied at three.

Conclusions? The votes have been easy ones, and both Days they've come in very near DL. What she's said has been consistent, though following in the tracks of others.
My gut wants to say she's innocent, but I could see a wolf there, too.

[Blind Guardian]

I am here. Sorry about not being around very much, I'm kinda incline just to quit. Mom wouldn't let me on the computer. -_-


Anyways, I still suspect Nessa, even more now. To me she looks wolf-ish. Now if you will excuse me, I'm going to look as Inzil...

[Cailín]

Thanks for that, Inzil.

I agree: elronds_daughter's posts and votes do not look good, but then skip (whom I now distrust because of Valier's death) voted for her yesterDay in what seemed to be an attempt at a convenient and excusable bandwagon, though he adequately described it as a random stab in the dark (not something that seems particularly useful right now). Of course, you yourself are a dodgy character as well. ;)

[Aganzir]

What I meant was that a wolf would have the time to get her bearings. She would know what is happening and why. In contrast to an innocent who is being constantly suspected by the village and framed by the wolves.
I'm not sure about that, I think it's more of a playing style thing. I get mad when suspected regardless of my role, and I suppose some people always stay calm.

Already explained that. Nessa's last post induced me to want to save her, even though I didn't see Lottie as all that suspicious.
I know but that isn't what I meant - I thought your phrasing looked funny.

I was at work.
:D I still think it was fishy to leave voting till the very last second but I guess that's fair enough.

That's of course one of the main reasons why I am not suspecting you yet
Wait, what? I say "I could be a wolf" and you say "That's why I don't suspect you"?

Lommy was almost certainly not a we-are-looking-for-the-Seer kill but a let's-get-her-now-before-she-starts-making-sense kill
:D

I find it curious that two of the most quiet players, who would seemingly be good "no-trail" kills, are still with us.
I don't think that's so curious. The less they speak, the less of a danger they are to the wolves. Even if they're right, they won't convince anyone if they don't post enough.

As an aside, I totally know why we chose Pericles for Rikae. :p

I was planning to analyse one of my Either people, but I'm feeling okay about Legate, Pitch has already been analysed twice, I'm tired of thinking about Nessa & Inzil, I want Boro to post more, and I have absolutely nothing on BG & Mänwe. This annoys me, so I suppose I'll just go through skip's posts. I'm starting now but it might take me long because I'm off to the grocery as soon as my seer friend (who randomly asked yesterday if we've already lynched Mac) gets out of the shower.

[Blind Guardian]

Inzil


#24- jokes inrole, says he will return
# 48 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=645616&postcount=48) Agrees with Agan on getting a wolf soon. Suspects Pitch. Will not lynch me on Day! :D SOmeother things...comments on DL.

#50 Jokes with Lottie

# 54 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=645627&postcount=54) responds to Mac about wolves and the cobbler hinting early.

#59- Jokes with Boro and Rikae

#72 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=645662&postcount=72)- Comments on Kits 'easy vote' of Pitch Jokes on Ozban's Satan mistake.

#98 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=645695&postcount=98) Votes nessa, says she sounds off.

DAY2

#166 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=645793&postcount=166) 'interesting' kills, wants to know why. Both had something to do with him...

#169 - jokes with Legate, does not like Sally-wagon

#193 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=645844&postcount=193) Agrees that Ozban's death is strange. Did not think Sally as evil. Is not comfterble with Nessa or Mac.

#194 Might suspect Val

#196 Does not know why a baddie would false reveal as a hunter

#198 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=645850&postcount=198) Is joking...?

#222- Doesn't know if Kit will be back after a day or never. Seems to think Kit wants to use her gift. (hunter) Is concerned about Val, nessa, Pitch and Mac

#232 responds to Skips joke-reveal as the Hunter. Jokes

#237 responds to Skip 's Hunter reveal

#261 doesn't want to vote for Kit or a quiet one.

#292 Doesn't like Val's vote.

302 Doesn't want to vote for Lottie

308 Would vote for ed

Votes for Lottie

Is sorry for voting for Lottie

Doesn't think people are going to listen to him

Comments on his vote

More vote comments

Sums up elronds_daughter's role. (took attention off himself it looks like)


Edit: xed since me


Edit2: That was my longest post ever!

[elronds_daughter]

I wish I had something substantial to contribute, but I'm afraid this is all still sort of a jumbled mess in my head, and other people are making more sense out of it than I can. Thus, I haven't made much of an account of myself, and it appears I've let myself get swept up in a most unfortunate bandwagon. Rats. Now the only person I still have any sort of a clear idea on is Mac, and that's mostly because he's seeming the most objective. I still don't think Inzil is a wolf, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's the cobbler. My formerly neutral feelings on Rikae are tending towards "seems innocent to me".

I'm not sure what to make of all this talk about the quiet ones, me being one of that number. I'm still trying to get my feet (which at this point in the game had better happen fast or I may doom the village). Twenty-four people was a lot to get my brain around. Now we're down to seventeen, but that's still a lot for my non-strategical mind.

I think I need a cup of tea to clear my head.

[skip spence]

Here and reading. That said today is going to be a bad day for participation for me. Have a bit of time now, that's all.

[wilwarin538]

Ok, I'm here, and I've tried to process everything.

I notice there's a lot of talk about the kills and how they don't seem to make a lot of sense, but I think everyone is forgetting something: the Cobbler sends in a suggestion.

Think about it; perhaps the wolves together are only deciding on 1 person, and then whoever the Cobbler suggests is who their 2nd person is (as long as it's not them, obviously). If they do that they may not really have their own reasons to kill the 2nd person, they're just trusting that perhaps the Cobbler spotted something (a Gifted hint perhaps) that they missed. This would also kind of seperate themselves from one of the kills, making it harder to track back to them. So perhaps we should be considering the kills from a Cobbler's perspective? I'm not sure if that all makes complete sense, and it depends on the wolf pack, they could just be ignoring the Cobbler, but we shouldn't forget that there's a 5th person who has a say at Night.

I also noticed lots of us (including myself) have been saying that some things are "too obvious" and I think we have to get out of that mindset. Sometimes things really are just as they seem, and wolves can easily do things that seem too obvious, hoping the village thinks that and ignores it.

I'm afraid I have to go to work in an hour, I thought toDay would be much better for me for participation, but it's not turning out that way. I'm going to skim back through and try to find a suspect.

x'ed since Agan

[Blind Guardian]

I have to go so i am going to vote

++Nessa

I have had a feeling about her since the beginning and it's not getting better.

(By the way, this game ends in the middle of my day, thus my early votes.)

[Rikae]

As an aside, I totally know why we chose Pericles for Rikae. :p


The big head?

[Rikae]

I just noticed something.
Pitch, why were you hinting at/about Boro late in Day one?

[wilwarin538]

So, I have to go I'm afraid. I need to vote, and I don't have time to look at everyone closely, so I'm going to give my opinion on the two people who seem to be the ones everyone is considering.

I still don't get the Nessa thing, do people even have legitimate reasons to suspect her, or has she just become a fallback? I've just had the chance to skim through yesterDay, so maybe I just missed something, but I don't really get it. I know she said a couple odd things Day 1, but I don't really see anything else that is so incriminating that everyone keeps going for her. I definitely need to take my own close look at her, I just don't have the time to do that right now.

Inzil makes more sense to me. His last minute vote was strange (and if he's guilty Nessa does looks pretty bad), and his tone at the beginning of the Day today is really weird. His whole "I'll understand it if you lynch me". To me it always seems like innocents get a bit more upset when they're in danger of being lynched, and don't just sit back and take it (when you're innocent you don't want to get lynched because it's no good for the village, so if you really want to win you fight to stay alive so that the lynch can hopefully be used in a more useful manner, atleast that's how I see it). While a wolf may try to be understanding, saying that they don't mind dying to get some sympathy and maybe skate by. That's why I never get why people see defensiveness as a sign of guilt, because it's not just the wolves that want to stay alive, and wolves are less likely to want to make a big scene out of their defense. Him being a Cobbler would also make sense. His whole tone just seems like he's trying to be too cooperative, and is afraid to cause trouble.

So since I'm very quickly running out of time, I'm gonna go for Inzil, even if it is mostly on a gut thing:

++ Inzil

[Pitchwife]

A look at one of our quieter people:

Eomer

D1
#62 Joking banter. Observes that no one wants to stick out. Will not vote for Zil (for humour's sake) and Cailín (for obvious reasons); Ozzy could be "a potential nutter" (whatever that means).

#87 questions wilwa about the 'Pitch wagon'.

#117 complains of "over-analysis" (not sure to what this refers). Getting wolf vibes from Nessa, skip and Lottie. Jokes that he "always wants to kill" Kit, Greenie, Lommy and Kath.

#136 "Day One reasoning is, and ought to be, the slave of the passions."

#148 Would rather let Zil live. Votes Nessa because she "looks a bit funny".

#157 Replies to Lommy, who said that the Nessa-wagon felt wrong: "I didn't bother covering my tracks. You think it'll make you look better?"
Weird remark, if it wasn't meant as banter. From this and his last post it looks like he voted Nessa, at least in part, in order to save Zil, putting her in the lead by one vote.


D2
#175 Thinks Ozzy was killed because of a "definite seer hint"; Kath's dead not so interesting, but he promises to look at Kath. Defends the sallywagon, it was understandable without hindsight. Confused about the argument between wilwa and Agan over sally's cobbler comments. I thought more or less the same at the time.

#180 Kath didn't look like a Seer, but perhaps the wolves feared her wolf hunting powers. Ozzy's verses and his vote for Nessa could have looked giftedish to the wolves. Repeats that Nessa had already felt wolvish to him on Day 1. Again, my thoughts exactly.

#218 Thinks Lommy's observation about Zil's quick first post was a "good spot". Doesn't want to lynch Kit. He was a bit either-or about the matter of Zil's first post here.

#269 "All the loudmouths" (meaning Zil, me, Rikae, Agan, Legate and Mac) feel innocent. Nessa still feels wolvish, corroborated by the Ozzy kill. skip feels less wolvish. Unsure about Lommy, LR's daughter and BG. "Valier does look pretty creepy." Votes Nessa. I'm not sure where Valier's 'creepiness' came from - I noticed that several people (Legate for one, if I'm not mistaken) expressed uneasiness about her yesterDay, which I couldn't and can't see a real reason for. Anybody care to explain?

Conclusion so far: on Day 1, mostly commenting, some quaint humour; on Day 2, much more focussed. He went after Nessa consistently, for reasons I can find no fault with. As a personal observation, the Eowolf I was packmates with some games ago was both crazier and less relaxed, if that makes sense - this looks more like the innocent Eomer from our last game together.
Noteworthy is his early connection to Zil on Day 1. If Zil is guilty and Nessa innocent, he could be Zil's packmate. If Zil is innocent and Nessa guilty, he'd be a very unlikely wolf in my opinion.

[Pitchwife]

I just noticed something.
Pitch, why were you hinting at/about Boro late in Day one?
I'm not aware of doing any such thing. Where was that?

[Macalaure]

I would expect seasoned players - those who have been Wolves many times - to go mainly after the Seer. Which does not seem to be the case at least of the first Day, in my opinion. Ergo, for this reason, it would make more sense to suspect the players like LRH, BG, Nessa, perhaps Mänwe, and others, but not e.g. Mac, Rikae, Pitch, Zil, Agan, Boro... those are the people whom I would expect to make more "logical" kills.What if you don't have any leads regarding the seer? Then the logical choice is to go after one that gives you an advantage during the Day.

Anyway, if we think the wolves went after the seer, then toDay's lynch is a total no-brainer: Skip, not any of the ones you list.


Mac, I don't think it's so unlikely for a wolf to think either of two people might be a seer who dreamt him. Thinking that, the pack might eliminate both at once and plan to pass it off as a bluff, and, if that doesn't work, throw the "almost certainly dreamed" wolf under the bus. I would, anyway.With the extra kill as long as they're all together, I find it extremely unlikely that any bus-throwing is taking place at the moment.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm here now! Let me see.

Valier did not strike me as a seer. I suppose the wolves feared her reputation as a formidable wolf-spotter, and decided to end things.

I need to go through Lommy's posts but, as far as my memory serves me, this strikes me as another odd kill.

Could be exactly what they want, and I'm loathe to fall into a trap, but I think they would have killed me by now if Nessa was a wolf. Could be time for a re-think on my part. Need to start looking critically at these helpful, co-operative loudmouths.

[Aganzir]

I wish I had something substantial to contribute, but I'm afraid this is all still sort of a jumbled mess in my head, and other people are making more sense out of it than I can.
Ah but you have. You don't have to come up with anything original, just your opinions on everybody suffice for now. That means we have an easier time figuring out your fellows if you turn out to be a wolf. :p

I'm not sure what to make of all this talk about the quiet ones, me being one of that number.
It's mostly just rubbish as Greenie pointed out (although with kinder words). I like to lynch a quiet player if I don't have a better suspect because it's often easier for them to slide by unnoticed while the louder ones tear each other apart. But speculating on whether a certain kill points at a quiet or a loud player... that's of no importance whatsoever.

I think I need a cup of tea to clear my head.
Cobbler hint! :D

perhaps the wolves together are only deciding on 1 person, and then whoever the Cobbler suggests is who their 2nd person is
If the wolves decide to go with the cobbler's suggestion, it means they've weighed the situation and the consequences of the kill and know exactly what they are doing. They wouldn't follow the cobbler blindly just to distance themselves from the kill. I guess your suggestion is reasonable enough, but the first thing it brought to my mind was either a wolwarin or a wibbler (sorry :D) telling the other(s), "See, you and I know we've been doing this!"

The big head?
Aww no! It's just that your influence in this village covers... just about everything.

Okay continuing my skip analysis now.

[skip spence]

l've had a look at yesterDay with a focus on the voting which eventually led to the lynching of Lottie. Sorry if the formatting comes out a bit messy!

The Day starts at 11.03 PM with Interesting kill choices, I think. Kath, who voted for me, and Ozban, who followed my vote for Nessa. Why them? Legate and Lottie comments early that this makes them feel better about Inzil. Leg's suspicions are later aroused though: I am starting to suspect Inzil. A bit, but anyway. Which is horrible, thinking that in such a case it would be, what, the fifth time in a row he was a Wolf?

Nessa makes an early vote for Rikae (for the second time). I never quite understood why Nessa's after Rikae? Care to explain?

#246 BG votes Nessa. "a feeling" and "too much confidence" is the explanation. Don't really understand that confidence thing to be honest...

#248 Mac says Inzil is an "amateur-wolf" if he'd make that first post as a wolf. Or is this what he'd have us think? Mac adds...

#254 Lottie votes Kit because she very uncharacteristically has no suspects at all

#256 I vote Elrond's daughter for being a submarine. This was a spur-of-the-moment decision as I got a call from a friend who needed help and had to leave.

#269 Eomer votes Nessa (2) "Nessa is still bothering me: she just feels like a wolf. The Ozban kill seems to tie in with it, so I'd be most inclined to kill Nessa today."

#274 Shasta votes Lottie because he doesn't like that Kit-vote. Me and Cailin has already expressed the same sentiment.

#275 Pitch votes Nessa (3) He thinks there might have been a wolf in the running on Day 1 but don't think it was Inzil.

#281 Val says she doesn't like the bandwagon against Nessa and votes Me (mostly because of that joke it seens)

#284 Greenie votes Inzil, mostly because that very quick comment on the kills and their significance. Thinks this is a bad sign. Lommy earlier made the same
point.

#291 Rikae votes Lottie (2) "For her Kitanna vote and for being a submarine."

#293 Lommy votes Inzil (2), I assume mostly because that early comment.

#294 Rikae retracts her Lottie-vote and goes for Inzil (3) instead

#296 Cailin votes Lottie (2) (eager to wash her hands ie the Kit-vote)

#298 Mac votes Lottie (3) "the only sensible option" ??

#303 elrond's daughter defends Inzil and votes Lottie (4)

#305 Agan asks for support: anyone into voting skip or ed? Inzil says maye ed; Legate maybe skip

#310 Agan votes Nessa (4) because the is the most quiet among the suspects.

#311 Legate votes Nessa (5) Think I missed why.. Why?

#314 On the deadline Inzil votes Lottie (5) who is lynched, because he was swayed be Nessa who popped up and defended Lottie.

If Nessa and Inzil are fellows this would be a very bold move. Yet it makes sense I guess. Perhaps he figured that one of them were bound to get lynched for this sooner or later, and which later a better alternative in this case with the double kills. Need to think more about this.

All this is giving me a bad feeling actually. If we lynch Inzil and he is innocent, what do we do then?

Another thing: I find it curious that Nessa did not retract her Rikae-vote and voted for say Lottie or Inzil to save herself. Why didn't you, Nessa?

[skip spence]

Okay continuing my skip analysis now
I have no doubt you'll find me guilty, sweetheart ;)

[Cailín]

Well, I've been pondering some more and all I have come up with is a list of reasons why I stopped playing werewolves in the first place. Won't share that one with you though.

Those Who Appear Innocent

Eomer of the Rohirrim - I am honestly just mentioning him first because he's top of the list and all. I would love to suspect him, but I am fairly sure he is either innocent or will in the next few days declare his wolvery in some obvious way.

Macalaure - I find him sensible.

A Little Green - Her contributions today have been helpful and I found myself agreeing with many of her points.

Shasta - He has been fairly quiet though. I wonder why?

Aganzir - Could fool me.

Those Who Are Silent

elronds_daughter - Yea, she's quiet. Yea, she made some shady calls. I do not yet see evil.

Blind Guardian - a relentless and somewhat thoughtless pursuit of Nessa here. I find this suspicious.

Nessa - We talk about her a lot, but there's no answer. Could she really be a wolf?

Manwe - has been completely flying under the radar so far. One to watch.

The Unpopular Ones

Pitchwife - seems to have gathered a lot of suspicion, backed off, changed ways... I find his analyses convincing and lucid enough, but his self preservation instincts may seem subtle wolf rather than shocked innocent.

Inziladun - has without a doubt been a distraction: strange.

Skip Spence - looks worst after last night though I cannot find the double Seer attempt story convincing - Lommy's suspicion of him was so unfixed.

The Others

Rikae - She could be either. Or. And dangerous.

Boromir88 - Strangely silent. Whether he is trying a new technique and hide in the crowd - banking on his reputation to see him through for a while - or just uninterested... I am not sure.

Legate of Amon Lanc - I do not like how he is basing all his reasoning on meta-game hunches. His posts also seem jumbled, unstructured and filled with awkward sentences: either he is being overly deliberate (wolvish behaviour) or just confused.

Wilwarin - I am not convinced of her guilt but I do not like any of her posts (to which I will add a sorry Wilwa, because you have always been quite friendly really).

[Rikae]

I'm not aware of doing any such thing. Where was that?
When you repeatedly and prominently used a word associated with him in one particular post.
With the extra kill as long as they're all together, I find it extremely unlikely that any bus-throwing is taking place at the moment.
If they consider one of their number doomed anyway, why shouldn't they use him to make themselves look good?

[Nessa Telrunya]

Another thing: I find it curious that Nessa did not retract her Rikae-vote and voted for say Lottie or Inzil to save herself. Why didn't you, Nessa?

Because my desire to see Rikae lynched outweighed my desire to live. You see, I figured that once everyone saw that I was innocent, they would be inclined to take a second look at the person who I'd consistently voted.

Although, my suspicion for Rikae is beginning to wane in light of her overall helpfullness, and that nothing else she's said has resulted in stirring the pot-so to speak. It also helps that Legate's giving me the chills.

I also continue to believe that Inzil is innocent. After playing with Inzilwolf in the last game, I'm getting a different tone from him, not to mention the style of the wolves feels quite different in this game. And his some of his actions have been way too radical to come from a wolf who had double-kills to risk, should anyone take his words the wrong way.

Nessa makes an early vote for Rikae (for the second time). I never quite understood why Nessa's after Rikae? Care to explain?

This should suffice:

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.

:D:D

[skip spence]

Quick spontaneous list.

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Has voted Nessa twice now with sound reasoning. Innocent-leaning.

elronds_daughter - submarine and therefore hard to read. Don't care for that.

Macalaure - One of the loudest people. Doesn't always make that much sense to me though, will try to look closer at him if I find the time

Shastanis Althreduin - Seems rational and objective when he shows up. Wary of Shasta though.

wilwarin538 - Doesn't seem all that convincing to me.

Nessa Telrunya - Might well be a wolf I think. Evidence against her not favourable.

Pitchwife - Could be anything. Leaning innocent.

Inziladun - If he is innocent I feel sorry for him. Quite a bit stacked up against
him though.

Rikae - Innocent-feeling, but there's also this doubt in the back of my mind.

Boromir88 - Where is Boro and what happened to his attention-seeking?

A Little Green - No read.

Blind Guardian - Submarine and no read.

Mänwe - Has posted what twice? And very cryptically. Never voted. Tempted to vote him just because but probably won't.

Legate of Amon Lanc - Seems pretty genuine...

Aganzir - Looks less evil than she usually does which makes me wonder...

Caílin - Under the radar. Would like to have a better look at her.

Scary that there are 5 baddies in there. Will return soon with a vote.

[Cailín]

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Has voted Nessa twice now with sound reasoning. Innocent-leaning.

Ha! I like him too, but sound reasoning is strange praise for a "funny feeling". :p

I am fairly puzzled by skip's list, to be honest. However, Nessa´s claim that she would rather sacrifice herself so that we might take her suspicions of Rikae seriously is simply baffling, especially as she then continues to withdraw that apparently worthy-to-turn-myself-into-a-martyr-for suspicion.

[Boromir88]

If the latter was the case, we are living inside a horror. *dreads* I mean, if the WWs are already for two Nights doing nothing more than worrying about that they have been basically all caught this far and it is only a matter of time before they are lynched one by one, and yet still we in fact don't lynch either of them this far, it must be a rather pleasing picture for them.


That would be a nightmare, so have we reached the stage where Pitch, Nessa, and Inzil are just huge question marks we have to find them out or they will forever haunt us? Or do you think we should start widening the search, Legate?

If it has been as you say, then even with the few bad lynchings so far, the wolves are in a rather precarious, teetering on the edge situation, where once you remove one card, the entire house crumbles. I wouldn't expect things to be that simple, but I would regret letting Inzil and Nessa slip away at this point. I'm still not convinced on what got Pitch under suspicion, but I admit to forgetting about him after Day 1, so I'll have another look.

But you don't just fear to be dreamed of, you usually suspect one particular person to have dreamed of you (by their behaviour towards you) and kill that one. A lone wolf might get extremely nervous and behave like that, but with three comrades to keep him in check? This would only make sense if the wolves decided to throw Skip under the bus, subtly, but with the second kill tied to the fourth wolf, that's nonsense.


Second kill tied to the fourth wolf? Who are the other three?

[Pitchwife]

When you repeatedly and prominently used a word associated with him in one particular post
And that was what? Sorry, I've got no clue what you're talking about.

[skip spence]

++Nessa

I think the points against her are strong enough for testing out.

I will try to log in later (and might even change my vote if if seems best) but more likely, this is it for me for toDay.

[Nessa Telrunya]

++Nessa

I think the points against her are strong enough for testing out.

I will try to log in later (and might even change my vote if if seems best) but more likely, this is it for me for toDay.

Does anyone care to tell what points are these? I've seen speculation, but nothing stronger than "wolvish vibes" or "bad feelings".

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
Skip agrees with Boro that the wolves probably want to stay quiet early on. I don't think that's actually what Boro said: he seemed to be more of the opinion that the wolves don't want to bus each other early on. Skip however uses this as an excuse to consider voting for a quiet player - but expresses doubt because if the consensus is to vote off a non-contributor, the wolves can escape by being louder. Why is that a bad thing? A loud wolf is easier to catch than a quiet one and also leaves more trails.

He adds we should spread the votes unless there's a reason not to, and brings up the unfortunate Shastawagon (Shasta the seer was lynched in his absence by an exceptionally unanimous bandwagon).

He also agrees with Pitch, saying the cobbler's ability to send messages to the wolves will probably make her increasingly dangerous as the game progresses because they can identify each other more easily with the method of elimination. This comment makes me somewhat uneasy because he doesn't actually say anything new... It's more like talking about the cobbler just for the sake of it, not because he had anything new to say.

He then discusses the seer, saying she "should not be sacrificed lightly" and basically suggests the seer should wait with the reveal as long as possible ("I'd wait with the open reveal unless I faced the gallows"). He has a point, the only thing is it's reasonable for both a wolf and an innocent to suggest it.
The Seer must however be very careful to not leave any false trails should he/she happen to get killed. If we lose the Seer and the trail points to an innocent, we're in big trouble.
This makes me raise my eyebrows. No, we're not in big trouble if the seer suspects someone she hasn't dreamed of - unless it happens very late in the game, but seers don't usually survive that long. It's essential for the seer's survival that she not leave too obvious clues, and it isn't in the village's interests to say she should. The one or two known innocents aren't worth much if the seer dies early on. Sally accused skip of trying to hush the seer instead of using her, and skip countered by saying sally was twisting his words (unintentionally or not).
In his defense, though, he has a bad past experience about lynching the seer.

He proceeds to give the second vote for sally: "Just got this icky feeling about her misrepresenting my words." Several people had expressed willingness to vote for her before, though. At that point Nessa was leading with 4 while Zil had 3 and Lottie & Pitch 2. Skip's guilt would point away from Nessa & Zil because if he had wanted to save one of them, it would've made more sense to vote for Lottie, or Pitch if he's innocent.

Sally was the only person he expressed suspicion towards on day 1. He named a couple of others but mostly just agreed with them instead of having an actual opinion on them. This, I think, isn't particularly wolfish (in my experience, wolves prefer to hoard a list of suspicious people they can attack later on if need me). It's rather his views on certain things (the seer, for instance) that worry me.

DAY 2
He explains he didn't see sally's cobbler idea when voting for her so my argument about wolves not wanting to vote for her because of it doesn't apply to him. He speculates on whether one of the most voted (Pitch, Lottie, Nessa, Inzil) might be a wolf and if yes, how would their fellows react. Skip thinks Nessa looks the worst but it's also possible she's being framed. Lottie's "over-the-top defence" of Ozban was suspicious. He criticises ed for saying Inzil doesn't remind her of his wolfish self but adds Inzil doesn't worry him much.

He thinks Pitch, Rikae and Mac make sense & seem helpful and therefore considers them innocent whereas Legate, Nessa and a quiet wolf hiding in the crowd are starting to worry him.

After Kit's reveal, skip says he doesn't like the idea of just lynching her. His reasoning is the following:
Even though I think this statistically favours the village over the wolves (the latter lose their influence over the voting) it seems like a Day wasted and today's game ruined.
I agreed with him on not lynching Kit, but I find it more likely her lynch would've favoured the wolves - after all the odds of her hitting an innocent were higher, and the wolves don't really mind who dies as long as it isn't one of them. Therefore this argument sounds weird, even if innocentish. If skip turns out to be a wolf we should check Kitanna's suspects because in that case there probably is another wolf among them.

Skip then makes his fake hunter reveal. It was obviously a joke referring to his last game, but reactions to it are interesting as well. Rikae had posted shortly before it but gave no inclination of being around until later, therefore the people to comment on it were Inzil, Legate, me and Shasta. Shasta and I immediately pinned it as the joke it was, but Legate and Inzil seemed to think he was serious. I am 99% certain skip and Legate aren't fellows. As I said, it would have taken outstanding acting from Legate to react the way he did. He believed skip and started to discuss things from that perspective, and I can see no holes in his post that would indicate any extra knowledge.
Inzil's reaction is fishier than Legate's but not necessarily wolfish either:
Really, skip? So what does that mean: Kit's trying to get us to waste a lynch on her, instead of getting modfired? I'm not sure that I buy it. How about we lynch you, and you then hunt Kit? That would take care of the question. :rolleyes:
I can understand his skepticism because skip's claim would have seemed outrageous if he had been serious, but it can also be seen as quickly distancing oneself from a fellow who has blundered. It doesn't make me suspect Inzil more (or less), but it makes me doubt they're a wolf & cobbler pair because if that was the case, Inzil probably wouldn't have questioned him the way he did.

As I said before, I don't think we can deduce anything from skip's hunter joke. I'm disinclined to think he wouldn't do it as a wolf because of the attention he might get because as everyone who played in his last game know, he's a bold player.

Later skip discussed the sallywagon shortly, saying he was a bit surprised by all the late votes for her but can't really accuse us who lynched her because he found her suspicious too, and that the reasons for lynching her weren't as bad as some people implied. Sally was voted by wilwa, skip, Lottie, Lommy & me - two of them dead innocents, two of them unknowns (to me). I find his comment innocentish. Wilwa voted for sally because of her cobbler idea, something I doubt a wolf would've done. If skip is a wolf, he would have been semi-defending at least three innocents, possibly four. It just doesn't pay off for a wolf. So if skip or wilwa is guilty, the other might be worth a look as well.

In the same post, he says Nessa seems sloppy but he'll give her the benefit of doubt for that day; Lottie worries him but he won't vote for her; Inzil's identity might shed on light on the day 1 voting; Legate seems genuine; and Boro seems off. He adds he feels pretty good about most of the loudmouths and might vote for a submarine because there probably is a wolf or two among them.
He votes for ed, saying it's a shot in the dark but he rather tries a submarine than a heavy contributor. If one of them is a wolf the other looks better because a couple of people had started suspecting ed and there was a chance she might receive more votes. When he voted, Rikae, Nessa & Kit already had a vote (he xed with Lottie's vote for Kit though).

**

Skip looks more innocent than I originally thought but I'm not sure I'd be ready to consider him innocent yet. I think his behaviour towards other players doesn't look very wolfish - he just doesn't seem particularly careful. On the other hand, some of the things he said don't sound innocent to me, but to be honest I suppose my growing WW enmity (:p) towards him might be to blame for that.

The kills point towards him, but that was actually more likely than not given that about half the village expressed concern about him according to my notes.

I'm torn because my gut tells me to suspect skip but my reason not to.

[Rikae]

And that was what? Sorry, I've got no clue what you're talking about.

Never mind. I must be mistaken.

[Pitchwife]

Does anyone care to tell what points are these? I've seen speculation, but nothing stronger than "wolvish vibes" or "bad feelings".
The death of Ozzy, who suspected and voted you, plus the fact that Zil, who is himself widely suspected, climbed out on a limb to save you by getting innocent Lottie lynched, plus the dubious business with Rikae on Day 1.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's difficult to play werewolf on a phone, but I do have a couple of thoughts.

Legate, after rereading, is not as suspicious as I thought he was. (Sorry!)

Honestly after three days of this crap, I think its high time we lynch one of the two inherently confusing people. I will probably vote for Inzil/Nessa.

[Nessa Telrunya]

The death of Ozzy, who suspected and voted you, plus the fact that Zil, who is himself widely suspected, climbed out on a limb to save you by getting innocent Lottie lynched, plus the dubious business with Rikae on Day 1.

Thank you. However, I hardly think a Day1 suspicion is substantial evidence. :rolleyes:

[Aganzir]

I have no doubt you'll find me guilty, sweetheart
Should I have? :p

If they consider one of their number doomed anyway, why shouldn't they use him to make themselves look good?
Exactly.

I'm worried about nobody paying attention to Mac & Shasta (other than "they look innocent"), not because I suspect them but because I know how sneaky they can be. I'd like to take a look at them at some point, however I won't have time for it today. I'm also torn about Boro who hasn't been posting enough substance for me to form a solid opinion on him - he worries me but not enough to justify a vote.

Here's a list of people I might vote today. I'd prefer one from the first category but a lynch from the 2nd or 3rd might prove more helpful. I think there's more of a case against Inzil than Nessa so it's probably either him or a quiet player.

Suspicious-ish but not enough substance: ed, wilwa, BG, Mänwe (who'll be modfired if he doesn't vote today)
The enigmatic pair: Inzil, Nessa
Would be more of a gut thing: Pitch, Rikae, skip

I'm going now, will be back to vote some time before the deadline.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Elaboration on Legate (now that I'm at a computer) - Basically, (duh) Legate is known for 180-ing, and in hindsight that was my main reason to suspect him.

Elaboration on Inzil/Nessa - honestly, at this point, the pattern's just going to repeat itself again. If one of them don't go today, they're going to be all the discussion will be about tomorrow - which does make me wonder if clever wolves aren't leaving them alive for precisely that reason, but still.

[Macalaure]

Boro worries me a lot. If you have limited time to play, you try to come up with something helpful when you're around, trying to figure out what's going on. The points he does make are not up to his standards. Just compare Boro posts to the posts of time-challenged Skip toDay. Boro hasn't done anything of consequence since my analysis yesterDay, and my mind remains unchanged.

I don't have time toDay, since I have to go now, but Cailín worries me a bit. Not sure why. I'll need to have a look at her toMorrow.

If they consider one of their number doomed anyway, why shouldn't they use him to make themselves look good?The only persons in perpetual trouble are Nessa and Inzil. Nessa has not been incriminated by the wolves except by the Ozban kill. Inzil only got into the situation in the first place by the wolves' actions and his strange behaviour around it. Any other wolf has no special reason to be worried at this point.

Greenie -> Inzil
BG -> Nessa
Wilwa -> Inzil(2)
Skip -> Nessa(2)

Looking at this and people's stated suspicions, I guess your mind is made up. I think neither Nessa nor Inzil are good options, so I might as well stick with my actual top suspect.

++Boromir88

[Inziladun]

Because my desire to see Rikae lynched outweighed my desire to live. You see, I figured that once everyone saw that I was innocent, they would be inclined to take a second look at the person who I'd consistently voted.

Why would people go after someone you'd voted for just because you were found to be innocent? Unless you're the Seer who dreamed of Rikae, but your next words belie that:

Although, my suspicion for Rikae is beginning to wane in light of her overall helpfullness, and that nothing else she's said has resulted in stirring the pot-so to speak. It also helps that Legate's giving me the chills.

I also continue to believe that Inzil is innocent. After playing with Inzilwolf in the last game, I'm getting a different tone from him, not to mention the style of the wolves feels quite different in this game. And his some of his actions have been way too radical to come from a wolf who had double-kills to risk, should anyone take his words the wrong way.

You're right in that I am indeed innocent. However, your apparent reluctance to hop on the bandwagon against me, like your not changing your vote yesterDay to save yourself, now has me wondering if you aren't the Cobbler, convinced that I'm a wolf.

[Rikae]

I'm inclined to think, at this point, that the seer must know something about either Nessa or Inzil, and, knowing that, has the key to the other's identity as well. Unless, of course, xe decided to avoid dreaming a likely lynch target, which is also possible...
Still, I have a feeling like those two, although unknown now, are sort of taken care of, in that everyone has an opinion on them and therefore there are tons of trails.

I have had a really bad feeling about Legate for some time now and almost am ready to vote him for that reason. It isn't logical. He just seems to manage to stay on the edges of trouble, nudging it onwards somehow... but that is not solid, might be innocent, and psychic Shasta doesn't suspect him. He gets a pass for now, but I'm going to analyze him next chance I get.

Not really as suspicious of Skip as those others listed above. He seems cheerful, almost giddy, which could be a bad sign when the wolves are doing well so far, but I don't really feel like I have much to go on where he's concerned.

Those top suspects aside, I think I'll actually have to follow the old ball and chain and vote for someone who should be loud, but isn't, and who is making me uneasy, and who I have other reasons to wonder about, namely:

++Boro

Now, I have a date for Saturday night (not being a loser at all! :D) and so won't be back until after deadline. Vote wisely, folks.

[Pitchwife]

An hour to DL. Where is everybody?

Shasta's right, that messy Zil/Nessa business needs to be cleared up toDay. I guess I should stick to my guns and vote Nessa after all, but Zil actually looks worse toDay, if not by much.
The one thing that can't be part of a frame attempt by the wolves is Zil's 180 vote yesterDay. As far as that is concerned, Zil's and Nessa's respective suspiciousness equally depends on the other in my mind, so that's not much help deciding...

[Nessa Telrunya]

++Legate

Because of how weirdly he's been acting. I can't explain it too thoroughly until tomorrow, as I have to go now.

[Nogrod]

An hour to DL.Half an hour, to be more exact... :)

[Inziladun]

All right. Going out now, and won't make it back by DL.

I actually agree with Rikae. I think Nessa is hardly likely to be ignored by the Seer at this point, and I'm seriously considering her as the Cobbler. At any rate, BG and skip, neither of whom I particularly trust, have voted for Nessa. And we now have another viable candidate in Boro, whose vote for me on Day was for a rather questionable reason. He doesn't seem to be his usual, aggressive wolf-hunting self, either.

++Boro

Choose well, folks.

Auf Wiedersehen.

[Cailín]

I am not sure what to do (quite unlike me, really).

I agree that Inzil and Nessa will continue to be a distraction and I am unhappy to see they have the focus of so much debate toDay. It might be best, as Boromir88, Shasta and others have said, to get them out of the way. I am not sure what Mac and Rikae are up to but I have nothing on Boromir88 and I find him mysterious but not particularly nasty looking. I also feel uncomfortable about Legate and still am suspicious of skip, but it doesn't look as if he will be an option for the gallows toDay.

I will make up my mind in a few minutes.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hum. Inzil going after Nessa at this late stage makes me uneasy, almost as if he's preparing a vote for her in advance.

My mind's made up.

++Inzil

[Pitchwife]

Bah. Might as well flip a coin.

++Zil

Á vala Manwë!


EDIT: x-ed from #420

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, Inzil now jumping on Boro? Really?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nessa, Inziladun or Skip? I would agree that Skip looks the most likely guy to be set up (by Valier's slaying). Inzil looks the most like a cobbler to me.

I really want to kill Nessa but, like I said earlier, wouldn't they have killed me (or one of the other Nessa voters) if she was guilty? It's quite possible she is the sacrifical wolf.

Macalaure looks most like the standard 'straight guy'.

Cailin, Agan, Green and Shasta all look pretty innocent to me.

BG and Manwe - possibly a wolf in there but we need to first get a wolf who leaves a trail.

Rikae and Pitch are puzzles to me. Wilwa probably innocent. Legate could go either way.

I know I've forgotten a couple but I'll come back for you. :p

[Aganzir]

Green - Zil
BG - Nessa
wilwa - Zil 2
skip - Nessa 2
Mac - Boro
Rikae - Boro 2
Nessa - Legate
Inzil - Boro 3
Shasta - Inzil 4
Pitch - Inzil 5

Left: Eomer, ed, Boro, Mänwe, Legate, Agan, Caílin

[Cailín]

It's a bandwagon, but I concede. There is something up with Inzil. First that analysis of elronds_daughter looks like he was fishing for another easy lynch of a quiet player. Now this sudden vote for Boromir whom he has not mentioned before. His behaviour yesterDay was strange for sure. Basically it boils down to whether you trust his statements or not. I do not - would not trust anyone really.

++ Inzil

[Mänwe]

I think I'll actually have to follow the old ball and chain and vote for someone who should be loud, but isn't, and who is making me uneasy, and who I have other reasons to wonder about, namely:

++Boro

One for you Rikae when you're back (hope you had a wonderful evening out!) - or indeed anyone who has played in more than two WW games with a person who is currently playing - does the pattern of a players behaviour really not change often from game to game, such that any change makes them suspect?

Either way, I won't vote for Boro yet I don't think he's said anything more suspicious that marks him out more than some other players.

At the moment I am inclined to remain watchful of the extremes, and will vote against the establishment here who seem to have overlooked by and large the players i've mentioned in my past posts. I wish I were the seer in order to confirm a couple of suspicions ive held since the beginning. A wolf hides in the extremes...

++elronds_daughter is someone i've mentioned in my posts, largely popping in to vote only, i'm voting for an extreme.

~~

Pitch- tsk ala Mr. Anton "what's the most you ever lost on a coin toss" Chigurh.

[Aganzir]

I don't know what to think of the sudden Borowagon. I agree he isn't the Boro I know, but he's usually a lot smoother as a wolf. He does remind me of his cobbler self though... But personally I'd still like to see more before lynching him.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Around, but don't have much time to comment on stuff... maybe I will manage to comment on two or three things people have said, but probably most will have to wait till toMorrow if I am still alive.

I would have wanted to vote for El Ron Hubbard now, also after looking at the analysis of her. But she does not seem to get so much votes, so not sure if it has any sense to do it.

Could btw anybody post a voting tally now?

I could vote Nessa, but I'm not entirely comfortable with it simply because I am wondering if she could be sort of framed and all that, I'm worried if it is not all just "bandwaggoning" on some suspicion raised by Wolves. I am not right now 100% fond with voting Boro, even though I have suspected him earlier, lately he has dropped a bit. I am not sure about voting Zil more or less for the same reasons as what I said about Nessa and also because possibly he's just a Cobbler (see what I have said in one of my posts above about this subject).

EDIT: x.ed with people from Pitch onwards and a tally, thanks!

[Cailín]

Coin tosses are bad but a throwaway vote for a silent player is not much better really.

[Aganzir]

largely popping in to vote only, i'm voting for an extreme.
Says who? :rolleyes::p

I might vote for ed but lynching her would mean an extra day of having to wonder about the Inzil/Nessa thing and I'm not sure I want that.

[Nogrod]

Agan: your tally seems to have foreseen Cailín's vote for Inzil (aka Inzil had a mysterious added vote there) :)

Here's the tally.

Greenie -> Inzil
Blind G -> Nessa
wilwa -> Inzil2
Skip -> Nessa2
Mac -> Boro
Rikae -> Boro2
Nessa -> Legate
Inzil -> Boro3
Shasta -> Inzil3
Pitchie -> Inzil4
Cailín -> Inzil 5
Mänwe -> Elron Hub

[elronds_daughter]

I don't know what to think of the sudden Borowagon. I agree he isn't the Boro I know, but he's usually a lot smoother as a wolf. He does remind me of his cobbler self though... But personally I'd still like to see more before lynching him.

I concur. I'm not ready to lynch Boro yet. Nor am I ready to jump on the Inzilwagon. Yet.

A few more minutes of thought...

Edit: x'ed with Legate, Agan, Cailin, and the Mod-God.

[Aganzir]

Agan: your tally seems to have foreseen Cailín's vote for Inzil (aka Inzil has a mysterious added vote there)
Whoops, it was Boro-3 so I accidentally wrote Inzil-4 after that. :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++NESSA

But I'm happy enough with Inzi too.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

++elronds_daughter is someone i've mentioned in my posts, largely popping in to vote only, i'm voting for an extreme.

I would have seconded that, alas, I think it'd be a throwaway vote at this point, now that I see how many people are left to vote. I am not objecting either of Zil or Nessa, like I said, though if I could, I'd have preferred others... but let's just hope that the death of either of them will bring something good.

I will probably go for Nessa, then. Just a last look...

(probably xed since my last)

[Mänwe]

Says who? :rolleyes::p

I've only popped in to vote once...E_D has twice and soon to be thrice :p

[Aganzir]

This is damn annoying because I'm actually feeling worse about Nessa than Inzil at the moment... But Inzil's vote yesterday was weird. Not the Legate 180 but the timing. Argh.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here goes my vote, and I won't probably have time to comment on anything at all in the end, but then, hopefully toMorrow if I am alive...

++Nessa

*hopes for the best*

[Boromir88]

Here. I think Inzil and/or Nessa would clear up the weight hanging over the council so far and clear things up for my own head.

[Aganzir]

Greenie -> Inzil
Blind G -> Nessa
wilwa -> Inzil2
Skip -> Nessa2
Mac -> Boro
Rikae -> Boro2
Nessa -> Legate
Inzil -> Boro3
Shasta -> Inzil3
Pitchie -> Inzil4
Cailín -> Inzil 5
Mänwe -> Elron Hub
Eomer - Nessa 3
Legate - Nessa 4

Hmm.

[Aganzir]

++Inzil

Nessa didn't even try to save herself yesterday. Not sure a wolf would do that.

[Boromir88]

Guess this cements it

++Inzil

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Just vote early enough, folks... not to miss the DL.. and right now I'll really prefer Nessa to go, I think...

EDIT: x-ed, all right...

[Nogrod]

Deadline.

Inzil dies in a moment

[elronds_daughter]

I've only popped in to vote once...E_D has twice and soon to be thrice :p

I don't only "pop in"...I'm around all day reading, I just generally don't have any input worth putting in. No lightbulbs, and my non-strategical brain is still getting the hang of this. I'm not nonexistent, I'm just not particularly vocal. Mostly I'm afraid of sticking my foot in my mouth like I did last game.

But. Vote.

++Nessa

If we're wrong, we're wrong (and that's mostly terrible), but at least my biggest question mark will answered.

[Nogrod]

The years passed. Although the Maiar had no way of checking on the time as there were no connection to the world outside their narrow corridor of doom – and the pale yellow light stayed the same all the time – they were quite confident the twenty years had gone a long time ago. But still, there was nothing but more of the same.

And more of the same.

And more of the same.

And more of the same.

“Okay. What do you think happened out there?”, Inzil queried finally.

“Utumno was attacked… and destroyed upon us. That’s my two cents. And they have forgotten us.” Boro said looking resignedly.

“Maybe they just don’t know we’re here?”, Mänwe suggested.

“They will not forget us… now will they?”, Cailín thought aloud.

There was a silence.

“I refuse to believe they would forget us!”, wilwa stood up and yelled.

“They will be searching for us through the ruins!”, Greenie added with a glimmer of hope in her voice.

“They will be here any day now!”, Blind Guardian shouted.

There was yet another depressing silence. Everyone knew that was not the case. Through the years there had been no sounds of any search whatsoever.


~*~

Decades went by.

A century went by.

And another.

And almost a third.


~*~

Suddenly they heard sounds from outside.

“They are coming!” Skip yelled and rushed up.

“They are coming to rescue us, Eru be blessed!” Legate added in joy.

“I never stopped believing in this, I really didn’t…”, Shasta muttered shaking with joy.

“A group-hug! Everyone!” Eomer yelled.

“The joy!” Elronds daughter cried.

There was a loud boom and dust blinded their eyes. First thing they were able to see was a glimmer of fire, and a familiar figure standing in front of them surrounded by the subdued flames.

“Sauron…”, Mac and Rikae noted in unison,shivering.

“Long time, no see”, Sauron nodded to them and smiled widely. “Things are advancing...” He added with a triumphant look. “My Lord is coming back soon, stronger than ever. He will just finish a few blows to those goody-goodies first. But meanwhile he has reminded me about you and the experiment. There is rumour about time coming ripe for the second-born to appear. And lord Melkor is more than keen to be there in time, with the right means.

So it’s you then Inziladun. Any last thoughts?”

“Well, I was kind of ready to vote for someone else to save my life at one point, but then I was quite ready to take the axe instead of them others focusing on the baddies… I was just resigned, I guess… and then, well she looked suspicious but because she begged for my other suspect I just thought to save her… *sigh* It’s been a rollercoaster-ride. I’m not sure what I think or want.” Inziladun burst and slowly shook his head. “I’m innocent, though. Like I said.”

“I know you are.” Sauron laughed. “And you guys are showing interesting signs of confusion and resignation. It seems mortals don’t know what they want from their life and try to mirror it from others… who don’t know it either… and then it will be just random, like which voice surfaces on top. I will report these interesting things to my Lord alongside the tapes.”

“Oh, and before I forget.” He took his sword and slashed Zil in two.

With that Sauron vanished.

Inzil's body lay there on the floor, in two pieces, and slowly started hissing, turning into stone.


The living:

Eomer of the Rohirrim - An associate of Ossë, speciality: lochs and ponds, great alliance with frogs
elronds_daughter - A spirit of no-nonsense
Macalaure - Carmótar, the Maia of housework
Shastanis Althreduin - A spirit of water
wilwarin538 - Belongs to Vána, cares for all the small garden dwelling, winged creatures
Nessa Telrunya - The patron of town criers across the world
Pitchwife - Tender of Oromë's dogs
Rikae - A spirit in charge of silicon & static electricity
Boromir88 - A Maia of Mandos, the interpretter of dreams
A Little Green - A spirit in charge of aliens, hummingbirds and farming
Blind Guardian -A spirit of evil ways
Skip Spence - A follower of Aule with an avid interest in behavioural sciences
Mänwe - A spirit of short acquintances
Legate of Amon Lanc - A Maia associated with the unfathomed depths of the world's seas but also with the waters surrounding Arda in the outer space...
Aganzir - Aka. Firebeck, a spirit of fire
Caílin - A spirit of secrecy


The dead:

Satansaloser2005 - (Innocent) A spirit of ducks, muffins and cookies; reduced to ashes and dust on D1.
Ozban – (Innocent) Yavanna's underling with inferiority complex. Caretaker of undergrowth and small bushes in general, especially blackberries; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Kath – (Innocent) A spirit of nostalgy; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Loslote - (Innocent) A spirit of sunshine and rainbows; melted down and turned into vapor on D2.
Kitanna - (Hunter) A spirit of all things unimaginative; committed a willful suicide on N3.
Thinlómien - (innocent) A maia who lives in Lórien and paints the dreams of those sleeping there; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Valier - (Innocent) A handmaiden of Yavanna, collecting the morning dew from the petals of flowers; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Inziladun - (Innocent) A vassal of Námo, serving as a warden in Mandos; cut in half and turned to stone by Sauron on D3.


It's now Night 4.

Sauron will see that you sleep... well, most of you.

[Nogrod]

Eä Herald - Narvinyë 19, 7th age

For today’s human, the fact that the Maiar remained relatively sane during that period of almost three hundred years in the narrow and dark corridor with no knowledge of their future, sounds incredible. Maybe that is why they are Maiar and we are not. But from the next recordings one can actually find traces of what is nowadays called the “Stockholm syndrome”, the odd psychological phenomenon where a hostage starts to feel warmly towards his or her kidnapper. Is that something to do with mortality, the total loss of one’s control to another person, and what does that tell of things like love? That will be for the future psychologists to research on.

Anyway, Melkor was back after the imprisonment – and a few other tasks he had managed to undertake after getting free. But even if he had been away, he wasn’t overlooking the experiment. With the promised advent of the forefathers and –mothers of our humanity, it was clear he wished to get even more out of the experiment.

That is probably the reason why he introduced the new element into it, to the absolute horror of all still present Maiar. It is oftentimes said that Melkor’s twisting of the firstborn was the greatest evil he had done – and the one that made Eru Ilúvatar the most mad. But it is quite clear that turning the uncorrupted Maiar into kinslayers – inspired by the his corrupted elves even if it probably was – stands dark rivalling the worst of Morgoth’s cruelty.

But let’s now go and follow the final moments of the encounter between Melkor and his captives.


~*~


“So, you wanted to know about the outside world? Well, they destroyed this place – which is just good from the point of view of the experiment, as now no one knows you’re here as everyone thinks Utumno was totally demolished. I did serve some time in captivity but I used my time well. After I was released I managed to corrupt the most powerful Quendi who then rebelled against the Valar, and a great darkness has fallen upon Valinor with the destroying of those annoying trees, Telperion and Laurelin. Let’s say it’s like tit-for-tat. Although I think I’m leading in what comes to swaying the newcomers…”

Melkor laughed so that the walls shook.

“The most powerful Quendi have already taken part in a kinslaying – and my balrogs have killed the most powerful of them. Oh, the world out there abounds in lament, hate, sorrow, ire, death, revenge, mutilation, cruelty… What a wonderful world!”

After some ranting like that Melkor became finally a bit more serious.

“But now, I have a new plan for you, or it’s just a slight alteration if you wish to see it that way. From now on, you will need to kill those you pick by yourselves! For that my servant Sauron has brought you some utensils you can use in whichever way you wish…”

Melkor waved his hand and Sauron took a step forwards throwing a heap of weapons to the floor in front of the astonished Maiar. There were swords, halberds, spears, axes, knives, flails, maces, tongs, scissors, pikes…

“That should be enough for even a more demanding taste…” Melkor laughed.

“And to just encourage you to use them as well… have you seen what my loyal servants have done to two of you we sleeping? You haven’t have time? Well follow me then”

Melkor lead them deeper into the corridor where they finally found a hole on the floor of stone. It was filled with some dark liquid – and there was something in the liquid as well.

“That’s what my dear servants do to you during the Nights. So do not be too restrained to get rid of them. Else, that will be the destiny of each and every one of you.”

Melkor and Sauron turned to leave, but Sauron glanced back to the Maiar. “Well done lads, well done!”



The Maiar came closer to the hole and realized there were the remains of their two friends – soaked in their own blood. They recognized the pale skin of the Blind guardian and the garments of the gallant Eomer. Their bodies had been mutilated.

It was outrageous.



The living:


elronds_daughter - A spirit of no-nonsense
Macalaure - Carmótar, the Maia of housework
Shastanis Althreduin - A spirit of water
wilwarin538 - Belongs to Vána, cares for all the small garden dwelling, winged creatures
Nessa Telrunya - The patron of town criers across the world
Pitchwife - Tender of Oromë's dogs
Rikae - A spirit in charge of silicon & static electricity
Boromir88 - A Maia of Mandos, the interpretter of dreams
A Little Green - A spirit in charge of aliens, hummingbirds and farming
Skip Spence - A follower of Aule with an avid interest in behavioural sciences
Mänwe - A spirit of short acquintances
Legate of Amon Lanc - A Maia associated with the unfathomed depths of the world's seas but also with the waters surrounding Arda in the outer space...
Aganzir - Aka. Firebeck, a spirit of fire
Caílin - A spirit of secrecy



The dead:

Satansaloser2005 - (Innocent) A spirit of ducks, muffins and cookies; reduced to ashes and dust on D1.
Ozban – (Innocent) Yavanna's underling with inferiority complex. Caretaker of undergrowth and small bushes in general, especially blackberries; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Kath – (Innocent) A spirit of nostalgy; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Loslote - (Innocent) A spirit of sunshine and rainbows; melted down and turned into vapor on D2.
Kitanna - (Hunter) A spirit of all things unimaginative; committed a willful suicide on N3.
Thinlómien - (innocent) A maia who lives in Lórien and paints the dreams of those sleeping there; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Valier - (Innocent) A handmaiden of Yavanna, collecting the morning dew from the petals of flowers; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Inziladun - (Innocent) A vassal of Námo, serving as a warden in Mandos; cut in half and turned to stone by Sauron on D3.
Eomer of the Rohirrim – (Innocent) An associate of Ossë, speciality: lochs and ponds, great alliance with frogs; skinned, gutted and sank into his own blood on N4.
Blind Guardian –(Innocent) A spirit of evil ways; skinned, gutted and sank into her own blood on N4.



Day 4 has started.

[skip spence]

Oh dear.

At least the seer is still alive.

Going to check up on what Eomer and BG have been up to.

[Macalaure]

Sooo, shall we lynch Nessa next and secure the wolf victory? :rolleyes:

Seriously, people. Inzil was a very obvious frame by the wolves, and we fell right into the trap, marching and singing 'Hurrah!'. :rolleyes: It happens way to often that the strange ones are lynched, not the sinister ones...

Can we all please re-think your suspicions now? I haven't looked at the dead yet, but they seem to me like another no-trail kill. The wolves are very, very content with the way things have been going. We need to get our act together!

PS: First one to say something along the lines of "Even though Inzil was innocent, it's still good that we lynched him and found out. Now the distraction is gone. / We can learn a lot from it." will get my vote. The easiest way to get rid of the distraction is to realize it's a distraction and let it be. Best way to learn something is to lynch a wolf, not a distraction.

[/vent]

[Aganzir]

It seems the wolves really want us to concentrate on Nessa... She's pretty much the only person Eomer and BG suspected. Either they're trying to frame her or want us to believe they're framing her. I find this deeply irritating.

If we don't get a wolf today, we're pretty much screwed. This is why I don't think we should lynch Nessa - just to be on the safe side.

There are a couple of people I'd love to see post more. I'm mainly talking about ed (I know you haven't played much but instead of writing how you have nothing to say you could actually go ahead and tell your opinions on everybody, and stuff), Shasta (way too smooth), Mänwe (self-explanatory) and Boro.

I am afraid of Rikae. Very afraid.

Will be back later.

[Aganzir]

Seriously, people. Inzil was a very obvious frame by the wolves, and we fell right into the trap, marching and singing 'Hurrah!'. :rolleyes:
This wouldn't be the first time I saw a Macwolf trying to stop us lynching an innocent and say "I told you so" afterwards. :p

[Aganzir]

I think the strongest argument for Nessa's innocence is the fact that she didn't retract in order to save herself the day Inzil pulled a Legate-180. A wolf would care more.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sooo, shall we lynch Nessa next and secure the wolf victory? :rolleyes:

Seriously, people. Inzil was a very obvious frame by the wolves, and we fell right into the trap, marching and singing 'Hurrah!'. :rolleyes: It happens way to often that the strange ones are lynched, not the sinister ones...

Can we all please re-think your suspicions now? I haven't looked at the dead yet, but they seem to me like another no-trail kill. The wolves are very, very content with the way things have been going. We need to get our act together!
It is totally disgusting, and yes, I am going to re-think my suspicions. Basically straightaway I could start from people like you, Aganzir, Rikae, okay, Eomer is dead, otherwise I would have said him, but then possibly Shasta for example. If the bunch of you four is it, then I am going to be disgusted beyond comprehension.

Speaking of this: could the kills possibly be not simply kills which are aiming at killing possible Seer picks? Like, BG was one I have suspected somewhat, likewise Eomer was sort of the enigma hovering in the background. Nessa, unless being a Wolf herself, would in such case probably have been left alive because she provides a suspect possible for the lynch. Anyway, I think the idea of killing possible Seer picks (among other things) is plausible, because with two kills, the WWs could afford doing that, in my opinion... That way, they'd get a lot of advantage.

Now I can be left to ponder if Mac's outpour is genuine, I am right now most worried that it's not. Likewise the person who posted after him. It seems the wolves really want us to concentrate on Nessa... She's pretty much the only person Eomer and BG suspected. Either they're trying to frame her or want us to believe they're framing her. I find this deeply irritating.

If we don't get a wolf today, we're pretty much screwed. This is why I don't think we should lynch Nessa - just to be on the safe side.
I can just see a Wolf-Agan saying this, of course. Especially with Nessa as her packmate. "A reasonable suggestion, let's not lynch Nessa, really, people". Of course, it all can be in many ways, Agan being really innocent (but no, I just cannot believe that because she is still alive and well), Nessa being innocent, and all that...

(Well I must say about this post in general, the question is again, how much I am getting generally paranoid. Like, I am now, I think, in the mood to switch into suspecting some people just because I don't want them to gloat after the game - and yes, that's exactly like Agan and Mac - so I would in fact prefer to e.g. lynch Agan out of purely "selfish" reasons, so that if she is a Wolf and is lynched, even if the Wolves managed to win later, I could say "ha, I told you so". But okay, okay, I think right now I should probably do it the way that I will go to sleep and post again in the morning, when I can actually think about things more "seriously". Because right now I honestly fear of making up horrible nonsenses if I continue to be here.)

edit: x-ed with one Agan

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I think the strongest argument for Nessa's innocence is the fact that she didn't retract in order to save herself the day Inzil pulled a Legate-180. A wolf would care more.

Maybe she just forgot. I mean, it isn't so common to have a retraction in a game, I believe, so...

Gah, this post sounded rather innocent-ish again. But maybe it's good and will filter off my bloodthirstiness and make me actually think rationally (seriously, now the previous post was just... guh. But the idea about the kills of Seer picks, at least, might be possible, don't you think? It occured to me actually yesterDay already, but I forgot about it and then couldn't write it later as I didn't have time).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, also a possible triple-post, but just a note before I go to sleep.

Let's not be really too pessimistic. We can still win this and quite brigthly, I believe. We just need to get a Wolf toDay. Simple as that. But I mean, we can really do it, can't we? Let's keep the spirits up, at least a bit. And then focus on finding out who the heck they are.

(That's to make up for my initial pessimism, which I hope will fade away.)

Okay, going.

[skip spence]

Blind Guardian:

Day 1:
Makes one insignificant post; says she won't vote.

Day 2:
Makes four insignificant posts; votes Nessa because of a "feeling" and because she "is too confident".

Day 3:
Makes two insignificant posts plus a summary of Inzil's actions; still suspects Nessa and again votes her

Eomer:

Day 1:
He has as a pretty quiet first Day. The posts with constructive contents:
Getting somewhat wolvish vibes from Nessa, Skip and Loslote; I always want to kill Kitanna, Greenie, Lommy and Kath and nothing's changed on that count, though traditional feelings are rarely valid in any given game

Well, I'd rather let Inzi live. Nessa looks a bit funny to me, so...

++NESSA

Day 2:

Thinks that the Ozban kill suggests a seer hint. (Ozban voted Nessa on Day 1) Then follows up with this:

All the loudmouths appear innocent to me. Inzi, Pitch, Rikae, Agan, Legate, Mac - nothing's ringing any bells for me. In any case, I'm happy to leave them all around and wait for the trails when we finally do get a wolf.

Nessa is still bothering me: she just feels like a wolf. The Ozban kill seems to tie in with it, so I'd be most inclined to kill Nessa today.

Skip feels less like a wolf today. Lommy is probably wicked but I can't get anything on her just yet. Elronds daughter and Blind Guardian, hmm... not sure. Valier does look pretty creepy. Too many people meaning it's difficult to separate feelings for everyone.

But still

++NESSA

Day 3:
Valier did not strike me as a seer. I suppose the wolves feared her reputation as a formidable wolf-spotter, and decided to end things.

I need to go through Lommy's posts but, as far as my memory serves me, this strikes me as another odd kill.

Could be exactly what they want, and I'm loathe to fall into a trap, but I think they would have killed me by now if Nessa was a wolf. Could be time for a re-think on my part. Need to start looking critically at these helpful, co-operative loudmouths.

Nessa, Inziladun or Skip? I would agree that Skip looks the most likely guy to be set up (by Valier's slaying). Inzil looks the most like a cobbler to me.

I really want to kill Nessa but, like I said earlier, wouldn't they have killed me (or one of the other Nessa voters) if she was guilty? It's quite possible she is the sacrifical wolf.

Macalaure looks most like the standard 'straight guy'.

Cailin, Agan, Green and Shasta all look pretty innocent to me.

BG and Manwe - possibly a wolf in there but we need to first get a wolf who leaves a trail.

Rikae and Pitch are puzzles to me. Wilwa probably innocent. Legate could go either way.

++NESSA

But I'm happy enough with Inzi too.

It takes no Sherlock Holmes to see the pattern here...

Two alternatives:
Nessa is a part of a Wolf-pack trying to get rid of the seer who they believed is either BG or Eomer.

The wolf-pack is setting us up (again). That seems all too likely eh?

It really is time to have a fresh look at the people left alive.

EDIT: x'ed with Leg and Agan

[Shastanis Althreduin]

elronds_daughter - A spirit of no-nonsense
Macalaure - Carmótar, the Maia of housework
Shastanis Althreduin - A spirit of water
wilwarin538 - Belongs to Vána, cares for all the small garden dwelling, winged creatures
Nessa Telrunya - The patron of town criers across the world
Pitchwife - Tender of Oromë's dogs
Rikae - A spirit in charge of silicon & static electricity
Boromir88 - A Maia of Mandos, the interpretter of dreams
A Little Green - A spirit in charge of aliens, hummingbirds and farming
Skip Spence - A follower of Aule with an avid interest in behavioural sciences
Mänwe - A spirit of short acquintances
Legate of Amon Lanc - A Maia associated with the unfathomed depths of the world's seas but also with the waters surrounding Arda in the outer space...
Aganzir - Aka. Firebeck, a spirit of fire
Caílin - A spirit of secrecy

Right then. A list, to first get my thoughts in order, one by one.

elronds_daughter - Quiet. Second, after Manwe, on my list of "people Shasta will analyze today".
Macalaure - Intermediate. I've been giving him a pass thus far on the basis of his outspoken-ness. This needs to stop.
wilwarin538 - I honestly don't remember much of anything that's she's said or done in the last couple of days. This is a problem - she's slipping under my radar.
Nessa Telrunya - The wolf-frame-favorite, it seems. Lots of the talk the last few days has been about her, and thinking back, I don't recall her ever passionately defending herself. Contrary to what I said about Inzil yesterday, I'm not sure lynching her is the best option today.
Pitchwife - Under my radar. I need to have a closer look at him today.
Rikae - Interesting. A lot of what she's done has made me think she's being her typical wild-ordo self. As of right now I'm okay with her.
Boromir88 - Pinging my radar a bit. I need to go back and see exactly why, but I need to see more of him today.
A Little Green - I stand by the fact that I think she's being quieter than usual. Another one pinging my radar.
skip spence - A bit farther under my radar than I'd like. One I will be looking at today.
Manwe - Tops my list of 'players to analyze' today. I don't think anyone has paid much attention to him at all, and I don't like that.
Legate of Amon Lanc - I thought him suspicious in the beginning, but what I've seen since makes me think he's more innocent. A conundrum, but I think I'm okay with him right now.
Aganzir - Entirely too evil to be evil, if that makes sense. Possibly a cobbler, but I sincerely doubt she's a wolf. (More likely cobbler than innocent, though.)
Cailin - I like her style, but I'm afraid I may have been giving her a pass due to that. One I'll be looking at today.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Now, taking the above information and putting it in a form that makes sense -

Green

Legate
Aganzir
Rikae

Green-Yellow

Nessa
Wilwa
Cailin

Yellow

Skip
Elronhubbard
Mac

Yellow-Orange

Boro
Greenie
Pitch
Manwe

Red

None

[Boromir88]

PS: First one to say something along the lines of "Even though Inzil was innocent, it's still good that we lynched him and found out. Now the distraction is gone. / We can learn a lot from it." will get my vote. The easiest way to get rid of the distraction is to realize it's a distraction and let it be. Best way to learn something is to lynch a wolf, not a distraction.


Obviously you want the lynched-distraction to be a wolf. And are you seriously suggesting we just let Nessa walk away now? :rolleyes: Time to get yourself new glasses because the wolves are standing right in front of you, but you're not seeing them. The wolves are just taunting and bluffing us at this point, but you're too focused on me. Now I know I haven't been playing up to my standards, but you'll only have yourself to blame when this is over.

I know I haven't been much use in forming suspicions, but I've tried what I can, by keeping up on reading everything and by not throwing away votes. I've been wrong in voting so far too, but I can't believe you're seriously saying we just let Nessa go.

[Rikae]

Even though Inzil was innocent, it's still good that we lynched him and found out. Now the distraction is gone. / We can learn a lot from it.

[elronds_daughter]

Bah. So upset with myself for just barely missing DL yesterday. I just couldn't make up my mind. And when I finally did it was too late. Not that it would've saved poor Inzil anyways...

Not sure how often I will be able to be around toDay. Tomorrow starts the first day back to school, and my Mondays are very long. I may have to just pop in to vote a few hours early, though I sincerely hope that won't be the case. I think it would probably be better for me to not vote toDay if I don't end up having the time to make it an informed vote.

[Aganzir]

Maybe she just forgot. I mean, it isn't so common to have a retraction in a game, I believe, so...
And do wolves forget that kind of stuff? I wouldn't.

Shasta why am I green if I'm more likely the cobbler than innocent? :p

I think Boro is the cobbler (or a wolf posing as one, but it seems unlikelier). He is being useless and he knows it. I've been disinclined to go after him thus far because I thought he might be a gifted, but we're now four days into the game and I find it impossible he'd be so blatantly unhelpful if innocent.

[Macalaure]

Yes, this is a long one. I can't help it. Feel free to skip past the boring stuff. ;)

I went through what (still living) people said about Lottie, Inzil, and Nessa since Day2, and assigned negative numbers to suspicious comments and positive numbers to innocent-looking ones.

Lottie might have been an all-innocent lynch, but there were evil bystanders at least. Considering the set-up against Inzil, I find it hard to believe that wolves had no part in his actual lynch. Nessa is a bit of a question mark, since we don't know her role, but her innocence would fit the picture perfectly.


Day2

#168 Legate brings up Inzil's strange Day2 entry. (fair point, but very back-and-forth-y) -1

#174 Legate says if the votes point to anybody, it's Nessa and Inzil -1 (for slight fishiness

#178 Cailín makes a solid point about Lottie (0)

#179 Legate comments to Lottie and says she now sounds innocent. +2

#182 Rikae argues with Nessa a bit, but it doesn't give me a bad feeling. Says Lottie might have been hiding behind her vote (not solid) -1

#183 Pitch analyses Ozban's death, which leads into a whole post against Nessa (0, since a wolf might not post so condemningly)

#186 Cailín agrees with Pitch casually -2

#188 Pitch states that Inzil was self-conscious based on Kath's suspicion, but doesn't go as far as to really suspect him. (0)

#200 e_d says Inzil doesn't look like a wolf. +2

#202 Boro, among many things, repeats his Inzil-pillowtalk (which doesn't make any sense) to me. -1

#206 Legate repeats that he doesn't suspect Lottie anymore. +1
He also says he's "somewhat wary" of Inzil. -1

#210 Skip fence-sits on whether Ozban's kill incriminates Nessa. -2

#219 Rikae list: back-and-forth on Lottie (-1), pondering Nessa, inconclusive on Inzil

#221 Cailín analyses Nessa, finds nothing of remark, but closes with "she has done nothing to make her look innocent" -1

#231 Legate is displeased about Nessa. -1

#234 Shasta criticises point Pitch and Cailín made about Nessa. +2

#252 Shasta list: feels slightly bad about Nessa (there are some points against her), and moderately bad about Lottie (refers back to Day1) and Inzil(screams double-bluff wolf) -2

#253 Skip gives Nessa the benefit of the doubt (+1), very fishy statement about Lottie (-2), and "I'm be tempted to try Inzil. Not because I really suspect him, but rather because his identity could shed some light of yesterDay's voting." (-3)

#257 Skip is unhappy about Lottie's vote (too safe). (-1)

#260 Shasta is, too. (-1)

#267 Greenie list: Lottie's innocent but she doesn't buy everything (0), questions the validity of the evidence against Nessa (+1), leaning bad about Inzil, and fishily so (-2)

#273/274 Cailín goes after Lottie (somewhat fishily) and votes for her (-2) and considers Nessa "to clear up some confusion" (-2)

#275 Pitch doesn't like the evidence against Inzil (+1), sticks to his Day1 vote Nessa (-2)

#276 Agan list: Lottie innocent (+1), can't see what makes Nessa suspicious (+1), lists a few bad things about Inzil, then says she's not concerned about him (-2)

#278 e_d: fishy comment about Inzil (-1)

#279 Legate list: inconclusive statement about Nessa (-1), positive about Lottie (+1), wary of Inzil, but not suspecting (0)

#283 Legate won't vote Lottie (+1), could vote Nessa (-1), "unsure which category to put in": Inzil (-3)

#284 Greenie votes Inzil, but is "quite unsure" about it (-3)

#287 Cailín list: Inzil innocent (+1), Lottie guilty (prev. post) (-1), Nessa (not committed, quiet) (-1)

#288 Rikae notes that both "psychics" feel uneasy about Inzil (-1)

#290 Agan could vote Nessa to get rid of an enigma (-2)

#291 Rikae votes Lottie (straighforwardly) (-1), discourages Nessa suspicions (+1)

#294 Rikae switches to Inzil (0) (the reasons are suspicious, but why would a wolf make a big deal about switching from one ordo to another)

#296 Cailín votes Lottie. (0) she's consistent in it, which makes it not suspicious.

#300 Agan: Zil's last post was creepy (-1)

#301 Legate: Definitely not for Inzil, not for Lottie (+3)

#303 e_d: Inzil mostly alright (+1), votes for Lottie (-1)

#310 Agan votes for Nessa (-1), casually stating that she doesn't actually suspect any of the leading candidates. I'd give more points for this, but she did explore other options before.

#311 Legate votes for Nessa (0) (makes sense considering his previous statements)


Day3

#319 Agan wonders whether both Nessa and Inzil are wolves, because of the Legate-180 (-3)

#322 Legate suspects Inzil to be the cobbler (-1)

#326 Rikae is dissatisfied by Inzil's explanation of his vote (-1), considers whether both Inzil and Nessa could be wolves (-1)

#330 Rikae goes after Inzil more (-1)

#333 Pitch questions Inzil on a few things (-1), has second thoughts about Nessa (too wish-washy to get + points)

#354 Greenie gives a whole lot against Inzil (-1) (not more, since I don't think the wolves would be this elaborate)

#361 Legate is very undecided about Inzil and Nessa (-1)

#365 Greenie list: Very shady suspicion about Nessa (-3), still suspicious of Inzil (0)

#367 Agan talks about Inzil's last 10 minutes on Day2 (-1) (as with Greenie before, would a wolf follow up the nightly frame this openly?)

#369 Legate is still undecided about Inzil (-2) (creates subtle confusion, which I think is something the wolves might want)

#371 Agan: fishy comments about Inzil and Nessa (-1)

#373 Greenie is the first to vote Inzil (0)

#375 Cailín: "if the wolves thought Valier was the seer, then Nessa looks good" (+1)

#377 Legate: But anyway, maybe I am overcombinating stuff too and perhaps the WWs are simply going for those who suspect them, in which case it would be really simple and the Wolves are like Nessa, Zil and some others and we are just wasting days worrying about nothing when we should just lynch them.
Radar go *ping* (-3)

#382 Agan lets go of Inzil a bit (+1)

#384 e_d wouldn't be surprised if Inzil was the cobbler (-1)

#390 Wilwa "doesn't get the Nessa thing", which would be good, except that she puts a host of unsure comments after it (-1), gives reasons against Inzil and votes for him. (a bit easy, -1)

#396 Skip analyses Day2 voting and ends up being suspicious of Nessa and Inzil in a very back-and-forthy way (-2)

#398 Cailín list:
"Nessa - We talk about her a lot, but there's no answer. Could she really be a wolf?"
"Inziladun - has without a doubt been a distraction: strange."
Very fishy comments. (-3)

#401 Skip list:
"Nessa Telrunya - Might well be a wolf I think. Evidence against her not favourable."
"Inziladun - If he is innocent I feel sorry for him. Quite a bit stacked up against him though."
Trying to beat Cailín in fishiness. (-3)

#402 Cailín doesn't like Nessa's martyr-thing. (-1)

#403 Boro: Calls Pitch, Nessa, Inzil big question marks that will forever haunt us, then asks Legate whether they should widen the search. Says he would regret letting Nessa and Inzil slip by. (-3)

#405 Skip votes Nessa "I think the points against her are strong enough for testing out". (-3)

#410 Shasta:
Honestly after three days of this crap, I think its high time we lynch one of the two inherently confusing people. I will probably vote for Inzil/Nessa.
(-3) (you might notice the pattern: people who suspect/vote Inzil/Nessa without being actually suspicious of them themselves get a lot of points)

#412 Agan (had ignored Nessa and Inzil for a while at this point) wants to vote for Inzil or a quiet one (-1)

#413 Shasta repeats what he said before: if we don't lynch Nessa/Inzil, we'll keep on talking about them (-3)

#416 Rikae suggests forgetting about Nessa/Inzil for now (+1)

#417 Pitch agrees with Shasta (coming up with the idea is bad enough, but passively agreeing?). Pitch repeats his intention to vote for Nessa (hasn't given a new point on her in a while), but says Inzil looks even worse. (-4)

#421 Cailín agrees as well (-3)

#422 Shasta adds a fishy reason and votes for Inzil (-2)

#423 Pitch flips a coin between Inzil and Nessa and votes Inzil (-2)

#424 Shasta adds another fishy reason against Inzil (-1)

#427 Cailín concedes that it's a bandwaggon (if she seriously suspected him, it wouldn't be a problem, would it?) and votes Inzil (-2)

#430 Legate is unsure about voting Nessa or Inzil (-1)

#434 e_d is not ready to jump on the Inzil-waggon (0)

#437 Legate is swayed towards Inzil or Nessa. He seems genuinely unhappy with the decision, though. He then votes for Nessa (0)

#441 Boro repeats that lynching Nessa/Inzil would "clear up the weight hanging over the council" (-2) (and -1 for melodrama)

#443 Agan votes Inzil (-1), since she hesitates about Nessa (+1)

#444 Boro votes Inzil, waiting til others decided it for him (-2)

#447 e_d votes for Nessa (-1)


Final Count:

Cailín -18 +2 (-16)
Skip -16 +1 (-15)
Shasta -12 +2 (-10)
Agan -13 +4 (-9)
Boro -9 +0 (-9)
Legate -17 +8 (-9)
Greenie -9 +1 (-8)
Pitch -9 +1 (-8)
Rikae -6 +2 (-4)
wilwa -2 +0 (-2)
e_d -4 +3 (-1)
Mänwe -0 +0 (0)

Alright, you can certainly argue whether each point I assigned is deserved or not, but all in all I think I got the picture right. Obviously, frequent posters look worse here, which the other way around means that infrequent posters should be higher. According to this, our wolf-pack is Cailín, Skip, Shasta, and Boro, with Agan, Legate, Greenie and Pitch other possibilities. I'd like to clear Rikae and e_d, but I hesitate to clear wilwa and Mänwe, who stayed almost completely outside of the discussion.


I only noticed this now while re-reading:
My non-Downer friend (who doesn't know my role) is lying on the floor next to my chair and trying to distract me: "Macalaure is a wolf. I know he is. I must be the seer. I hope the wolves don't come and eat me tonight. Do you suspect Macalaure? Let's lynch Macalaure! Don't write that!"
:D :D

[Rikae]

Mac and Boro clearly both have agendas, and one of them is the wolves' agenda. Let's toss a coin and lynch one.

Well, not toss a coin, but Boro is treating Nessa as a known wolf, and Mac is treating her as a known innocent. I think it would be a bad idea to lynch her toDay for the same reason I thought it was to lynch her or Inzil yesterDay, but when it comes to everyone else I just find myself wondering how many cobblers this village has (of course, looking cobblerish is everyone's safest bet, but come on...)

[Rikae]

A few more things.

Clearly by now people know things. The wolves almost certainly have identified the cobbler, who probably has a good idea of them in turn. The seer knows a few people's roles, unless xe had the bad luck to choose those who are already dead. The wolves and cobbler probably feel an easy victory is nearly in hand. I certainly feel as though they're herding, or leading this village at this point, and I don't like it one bit.

I have an idea about someone who might know something, and I hope xe knows what I mean. If xe can in some way let me know if it's safe to mention this, I will; if anyone wonders, I, as the werebear Nog erroneously called an ordo :p, don't know anything at all (except that I know nothing).

[Macalaure]

I think Boro is the cobbler

I wish I would have thought of that yesterDay, but you're right. Certainly his behaviour toDay strongly suggests it.

[A Little Green]

Shasta why am I green if I'm more likely the cobbler than innocent?Shasta why am I not green? :Merisu:

Ahem. I should have more time toDay than any of the previous Days, I've been busy but since I'm only supposed to write an essay today I know myself well enough to guess I'll be playing werewolf all day instead.. There are a few things and people I'd like to have a look at. I'd be interested in taking a look at Shasta, Ed, Wilwa, Cailín and Nessa. (I can already hear a cry of "She wants to look at Nessa! She's a wolf!" But the thing I'm interested in is what Nessa herself has said and done, not what the wolf kills have been or who has voted her / saved her fishily.)

[skip spence]

Lunch-time and a quick pop-in.

My non-Downer friend (who doesn't know my role) is lying on the floor next to my chair and trying to distract me: "Macalaure is a wolf. I know he is. I must be the seer. I hope the wolves don't come and eat me tonight. Do you suspect Macalaure? Let's lynch Macalaure! Don't write that!"
I'm beginning to think your lovely non-downer friend might have a point.

Had a quick look at Mac's long analysis-post and I'm rather disturbed that he seems to regard Nessa as an innocent. Yes she might well be, but frankly, I fail to see how voting or suspecting Nessa (an unknown and ie possible baddie) objectively is much worse than voting and suspecting a now proven innocent. Huh, Mac?

When I get back I should like to have a proper look at Mac, Rikae and Agan. Also Shasta and Cailin, I suppose. Mostly because these people never really have worried me before.

It would be nice to get a summary of the voting record of the people left alive too.

Edit: Guess that Boro as the cobbler makes sense. If he is, do we let him get away with that?

[A Little Green]

It would be nice to get a summary of the voting record of the people left alive too.I can provide that at some point, right now I'm working on gathering all the votes from all the Days with the reasoning behind them included. I was always of the opinion that just the names and numbers don't tell us much. But since it proved a bigger project than I anticipated, I'm going to post it one Day at a time. I'll post comments of my own only until I have the whole picture. So here we go:

Day 1 votes (known innocents in italics)

Cailín – Agan
(”Because I know she can take it and I owe her one anyway.”)

Kit – Pitch
(”I feel, though he's said a lot trying to look helpful, but hasn't really helped anything at all.”)

Legate – Lottie
(”Now if we are speaking of Cobbler hints, THIS might be one.” and ”This was just a very well possibly Wolfy post. I mean, the sort of quiet raising of suspicion, putting in a few names and then saying you don't actually suspect them, but if any people follow your opinion, then you join the bandwaggon and point at that 'I have been saying that I suspect them all along'.”)

Rikae – Wilwa
(”Wilwa's seeming desire to admonish the village (yes, based on something I said, but I didn't say much) and wash her hands of the Pitch-wagon both strike me as evil attempts at being involved and positioning oneself in an innocentish way without actually having to go out on a limb.”)

Inzil – Nessa
(”Nessa seems off; the "oddsmaking" post just looks like trying to seem helpful.”)

Shasta – Lottie 2
(”Lottie always suspects someone. It bothers me that she apparently doesn't right now.”)

Boro – Inzil
(”They [Eomer and myself] usually aren't the chatty posters, but still get involved and in the action early on. Same can be said about Inzil who I realized has as many posts as me, but the only thing I can recall about him is the dream and eating his pillow...”)

Sally – Pitch 2
(”For shiftiness and wanting (on my part) to not just vote for one of the people who is attacking me.”)

Ozban – Nessa 2
(”As the air grows gravely stinky
this may seem like out of blue
I ask advice of my pinky:
'cause I know not half of you
"I shall not vote Agan kinky."
and the end is nearly due.”)

Wilwa – Sally
(Cobbler hint; ”With that said, I think Sally is at the top of my list. With the incorrect representation of what Skip said about the Seer, and the fact that she seems to be a bit all over the place with dislikes and likes, either by going from liking someone to not, or some are just a "yay, this person is shiny" or "no, I don't like this", without really giving any reasons. I know all that is a bit superficial, and on it's own I wouldn't likely suspect her, but that isn't all I have against her....so yeah, I'm really suspecting her right now.”)

Pitch – Nessa 3
(”For mathematical pseudo-helpfulness and attempted Seer-outing.”)

Kath – Inzil 2
(”faintly shoddy reasoning against Pitch compared to everyone else and he came to it late.”)

Valier – Inzil 3
(”Just don't like his Nessa vote because of her math, I didn't find her overly suspicious and I just get this itching feeling that he may well be a baddie”)

Nessa – Rikae
(”My hint was that if she knows something we don't, it's suspicious. After all, the wolves all know something we don't: who to kill. She got quite jumpy after being called out, and hastily backtracked, which seems really strange to me, not to mention how much discussion and sidetracking has resulted from her first post about Pitch. Perfect opportunity for a wolf.”)

Eomer – Nessa 4
(”looks a bit funny to me”)

Skip – Sally 2
(”Just got this icky feeling about her misrepresenting my words.”)

Elra – Pitch 3
(”Pitch seems shady, for reasons others have mentioned. If it was just "Hey, wait, why me?", then I wouldn't be so worried, but it's been "Hey, wait, why me? Also, here's a lot of words to make me seem like I'm contributing.””)

Lottie – Sally 3
(”Sally still worries me”, ”Sorry, dear, but you're the best hunch I've got.”)

Lommy – Sally 4
(”gives me a little fishy vibes. Something off with that long post of hers, but can't really pinpoint it.”)

Agan – Sally 5
(”No. It won't work - unless the Cobbler says it in the thread. So if the wolves get sally's name tonight, they can go back and realise "Hey, she said this!" I really really really don't like this point.”)

So Sally 5, Nessa 4, Pitch 3, Inzil 3, Lottie 2, Rikae 1, Wilwa 1, Agan 1.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So, what do we have here.
Obviously you want the lynched-distraction to be a wolf. And are you seriously suggesting we just let Nessa walk away now? :rolleyes: Time to get yourself new glasses because the wolves are standing right in front of you, but you're not seeing them. The wolves are just taunting and bluffing us at this point, but you're too focused on me. Now I know I haven't been playing up to my standards, but you'll only have yourself to blame when this is over.

I know I haven't been much use in forming suspicions, but I've tried what I can, by keeping up on reading everything and by not throwing away votes. I've been wrong in voting so far too, but I can't believe you're seriously saying we just let Nessa go.
I am not sure, was that serious? If yes, then Boro looks suddenly really bad to me - because this sort of "GET OFF ME!" reaction is typical for him when he is a Wolf.

Or, as somebody has said, he might actually be the Cobbler, which would make sense too.

And do wolves forget that kind of stuff? I wouldn't.
And what of newbie Wolves? I can imagine it.

Well, not toss a coin, but Boro is treating Nessa as a known wolf, and Mac is treating her as a known innocent. I think it would be a bad idea to lynch her toDay for the same reason I thought it was to lynch her or Inzil yesterDay, but when it comes to everyone else I just find myself wondering how many cobblers this village has (of course, looking cobblerish is everyone's safest bet, but come on...)
I must say, in one way I really really dislike the fact that Nessa was almost lynched for like, what, three consecutive days. On the other hand, perhaps if she is a Wolf, she deserves the title of the "survivalist" and a credit for that. It would be nice to hear also from herself, for that matter. I have to say that I think there definitely are people more suspicious than her, she just seems to be the one whom most people have agreed on.

Clearly by now people know things. The wolves almost certainly have identified the cobbler, who probably has a good idea of them in turn. The seer knows a few people's roles, unless xe had the bad luck to choose those who are already dead. The wolves and cobbler probably feel an easy victory is nearly in hand. I certainly feel as though they're herding, or leading this village at this point, and I don't like it one bit.

I have an idea about someone who might know something, and I hope xe knows what I mean. If xe can in some way let me know if it's safe to mention this, I will; if anyone wonders, I, as the werebear Nog erroneously called an ordo :p, don't know anything at all (except that I know nothing).
I am really curious what is going to come out of this, because if you are on the village's side, I cannot see why you don't speak plainer, or what the thing you have in mind is. Okay, really curious.

skip looks fairly good to me now, by his posting.
Greenie does too.
Shasta's last post... well, on first sight, I wasn't sure, I didn't like all the "this and this is under my radar, this one as well," sort of detachedness which could be like "I don't know anything, don't mind me, just lynch somebody and then we'll see, if we are lucky, you have lynched one of your own and us Wolves will laugh into your face". But on the other hand, reading the stuff actually, he looks like might be really commited to that. Well, I think I will have a better picture of him after he does what he promised and takes a look at LRH and such, that would show that he is not just making stuff up but really doing it.

If Boro is the Cobbler, then I would say either Rikae and/or Mac and/or Agan are Wolves, or maybe all of them.

I don't know about LRH (still have the reasons for suspecting her as I had yesterDay, but the question is who are her packmates), Cailín and Mänwe are practically nonexistant (though Mänwe looks more innocent to me than not, while in Cailín's case I have no idea), and wilwa, well... I cannot say. I am completely at loss with Pitch. From the beginning till now. Totally under my radar. Pitch, where are you?

Let us not forget now, the Wolves will be reluctant to give up one of their packmates right now. They'll prefer us to lynch some totally random person. Therefore, everybody who is innocent, I suggest making it clear for you whom you suspect and whom you want to lynch, at least roughly, and not let yourselves swayed too much by that e.g. XY randomly mentioned this one, or another person suddenly randomly mentioned that one... Or, try to at least make it clear whom you don't want to lynch, I think that should be good enough for the beginning as well.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie, Valar bless you for the voting summary - I have been actually thinking about the same, since with this huge game, it is really annoying that I could not review the votes properly all at once.

[A Little Green]

Day 2 votes (known innocents in italics)

Nessa – Rikae
(”I'm still really worried about Rikae, and it wouldn't sit right with me to vote some of the other speculated people when it's a whole mess in there.”)

BG – Nessa
(”Since yesterday I haven't felt really good with nessa since yesterday, more of a feeling that is hard to explain... She seems to have to much confidence in herself.”)

Lottie – Kit
(”I suppose I'll probably go with Kit so that the option is there if we decide to lynch her and see where her Hunt leaves us and whatnot.”)

skip – ed
(”This may seem random, and it is to a large degree, but I'd rather try a shot in the dark at a submarine at this point than at a person who's contributed more.”)

Eomer - Nessa 2
(”Nessa is still bothering me: she just feels like a wolf. The Ozban kill seems to tie in with it, so I'd be most inclined to kill Nessa today.”)

Shasta – Lottie
(”I don't like Lottie's vote. At all.”)

Pitch - Nessa 3
(”Now, I concur with whoever it was that said it (Shasta, I think) that the sallywagon could point to a wolf among the people leading in the tally before her; which would be me, Zil and Nessa (plus possibly Lottie, but she had only two votes). At the time the sallywagon got rolling for good, Zil and I had three votes each, Nessa four. Leaving myself aside (as I'm obviously biased here), I still don't think Zil looks particularly wolvish (and I think suspecting him because his first post was made too quickly is rather flimsy), whereas Nessa not only was leading the votes, thus in most urgent need to be saved, but there are also the Rikae affair and the Ozzy kill against her. Taking that together, I think I'll stick with my "baddie-baddie-bad-bad" vote from yesterDay.”)

Val – skip
(I think hes trying to be a clever wolf.)

Green – Inzil
(”Leaning bad - he's always driving me nuts because I can't read him at all, but though Lommy's point is almost too easy it makes sense. Three minutes is an awfully short time to read who died and figure all that out.”)

Rikae - Lottie 2
(”For her Kitanna vote and for being a submarine.”)

Lommy - Inzil 2
(”his first post toDay was incredibly fishy and nothing can change that.”)

Rikae - --Lottie 1
Rikae - Inzil 3
(”Ok, what with the psychics and the creepiness of Zil's last post”)

Cailín - Lottie 2
(”Because she seems so eager to wash her hands of all the blood that has been and will be spilled”)

Mac - Lottie 3
(”I could imagine going for Lottie myself (apart from what I said before, her vote for Kitanna is a very easy way out, which could be wolfish).” What he said before was ”Lottie -> Sally(3) (not good)” in a vote analysis and placing her in a list as ”Not really suspicious, but not really innocent either.”)

ed - Lottie 4
(”She seems the shadiest of all. Her Kit vote after the consensus had been to not vote that direction just seems to much like an easy way out.”)

Agan - Nessa 4
(”I don't really suspect any of them but she's the quietest.”)

Legate – Nessa 5
(”Well she is the one I am likely voting, by elimination method, as you can see.”)

Inzil – Lottie 5
(”Legate 180.”)

So Lottie 5, Nessa 5, Inzil 3, Skip 1, Ed 1, Kit 1, Rikae 1.

[A Little Green]

Day 3 votes (known innocents in italics)

Greenie – Inzil
(”Leaning wolf or cobbler at this point. I found him suspicious already before the Legate 180 -episode, and I'm still unconvinced an innocent Zil would have done that.”)

BG – Nessa
(”I have had a feeling about her since the beginning and it's not getting better.”)

Wilwa – Inzil 2
(”His last minute vote was strange (and if he's guilty Nessa does looks pretty bad), and his tone at the beginning of the Day today is really weird. His whole "I'll understand it if you lynch me".”)

Skip – Nessa 2
(”I think the points against her are strong enough for testing out.”)

Mac – Boro
(”Boro worries me a lot. If you have limited time to play, you try to come up with something helpful when you're around, trying to figure out what's going on. The points he does make are not up to his standards. Just compare Boro posts to the posts of time-challenged Skip toDay. Boro hasn't done anything of consequence since my analysis yesterDay, and my mind remains unchanged.”)

Rikae – Boro 2
(”Those top suspects aside, I think I'll actually have to follow the old ball and chain and vote for someone who should be loud, but isn't, and who is making me uneasy, and who I have other reasons to wonder about”)

Nessa – Legate
(”Because of how weirdly he's been acting. I can't explain it too thoroughly until tomorrow, as I have to go now.”)

Inzil – Boro 3
(”And we now have another viable candidate in Boro, whose vote for me on Day was for a rather questionable reason. He doesn't seem to be his usual, aggressive wolf-hunting self, either.”)

Shasta – Inzil 3
(”Elaboration on Inzil/Nessa - honestly, at this point, the pattern's just going to repeat itself again. If one of them don't go today, they're going to be all the discussion will be about tomorrow - which does make me wonder if clever wolves aren't leaving them alive for precisely that reason, but still.” and ”Inzil going after Nessa at this late stage makes me uneasy, almost as if he's preparing a vote for her in advance. My mind's made up.”)

Pitch – Inzil 4
(”Shasta's right, that messy Zil/Nessa business needs to be cleared up toDay. I guess I should stick to my guns and vote Nessa after all, but Zil actually looks worse toDay, if not by much.” and ”Bah. Might as well flip a coin.”)

Cailín – Inzil 5
(”It's a bandwagon, but I concede. There is something up with Inzil. First that analysis of elronds_daughter looks like he was fishing for another easy lynch of a quiet player. Now this sudden vote for Boromir whom he has not mentioned before. His behaviour yesterDay was strange for sure.”)

Manwe – Ed
(”At the moment I am inclined to remain watchful of the extremes, and will vote against the establishment here who seem to have overlooked by and large the players i've mentioned in my past posts. I wish I were the seer in order to confirm a couple of suspicions ive held since the beginning. A wolf hides in the extremes...

++elronds_daughter is someone i've mentioned in my posts, largely popping in to vote only, i'm voting for an extreme.”)

Eomer – Nessa 3
(”I really want to kill Nessa but, like I said earlier, wouldn't they have killed me (or one of the other Nessa voters) if she was guilty? It's quite possible she is the sacrifical wolf.”)

Legate – Nessa 4
(”I am not objecting either of Zil or Nessa, like I said, though if I could, I'd have preferred others... but let's just hope that the death of either of them will bring something good.”)

Agan – Inzil 6
(”Nessa didn't even try to save herself yesterday. Not sure a wolf would do that.”)

Boro – Inzil 7
(”Guess this cements it”)

after DL: Elra – Nessa 5
(”If we're wrong, we're wrong (and that's mostly terrible), but at least my biggest question mark will answered.”)

So Inzil 7, Nessa 4 or 5 (depending on whether or not Elra's vote counts), Boro 3, Elra 1, Legate 1.

[Macalaure]

Had a quick look at Mac's long analysis-post and I'm rather disturbed that he seems to regard Nessa as an innocent. Yes she might well be, but frankly, I fail to see how voting or suspecting Nessa (an unknown and ie possible baddie) objectively is much worse than voting and suspecting a now proven innocent. Huh, Mac?

Inzil and Nessa have been mentioned in the same breath or interchangeably a lot yesterDay. (In fact, it might be worth another close look at who did this in the worst way.) I'm almost certain that Nessa is innocent and handed to us as a scapegoat.

Anyway, I never said that voting or suspecting Nessa is worse. That's your addition, and it doesn't make me feel better one bit.

But just to satisfy you, this is roughly the count excluding everything about Nessa:

-9 Shasta -9
-8 Cailín -9+1
-8 Skip -8
-7 Agan -9+2
-6 Boro -6
-6 Greenie -6
-6 Legate -13+7
-6 Rikae -7+1
-4 Pitch -5+1
-1 wilwa -1
0 e_d -3+3

Only real difference is that Pitch looks better.

[A Little Green]

So here you are Skip, the votes of the remaining players, with my comments in italics where I had something to say:

elronds_daughter: Day 1 Pitch (3), Day 2 Lottie (4), Day 3 late Nessa (5)
Just going by the votes, Elra looks like a classic bandwagoner.

Macalaure: Day 1 no vote, Day 2 Lottie (3), Day 3 Boro

Shastanis Althreduin: Day 1 Lottie (2), Day 2 Lottie, Day 3 Inzil (3)
The curious part is that he votes Lottie twice in a row but seemingly for different reasons.

wilwarin538: Day 1 Sally, Day 2 no vote, Day 3 Inzil (2)

Nessa Telrunya: Day 1 Rikae, Day 2 Rikae, Day 3 Legate
At least she can't be blamed for bandwagoning. Every Day, a vote for someone no one else votes.

Pitchwife: Day 1 Nessa (3), Day 2 Nessa (3), Day 3 Inzil (4)
Votes only for the two "enigmas" Nessa and Inzil.

Rikae: Day 1 Wilwa, Day 2 Lottie (2), retraction to Inzil (3), Day 3 Boro (2)

Boromir88: Day 1 Inzil, Day 2 no vote, Day 3 Inzil (7)

A Little Green: Day 1 no vote, Day 2 Inzil, Day 3 Inzil

Skip Spence: Day 1 Sally (2), Day 2 Ed, Day 3 Nessa (2)
Easy votes, I'd say.

Mänwe: Day 1 not present, Day 2 no vote, Day 3 Ed

Legate of Amon Lanc: Day 1 Lottie, Day 2 Nessa (5), Day 3 Nessa (4)
Ends up voting Nessa twice though insists that he would rather have voted for someone else.

Aganzir: Day 1 Sally (5), Day 2 Nessa (4), Day 3 Inzil (6)
Just going by the votes, looks as much of a bandwagoner as Elra - but both two always vote late which we should take into account.

Caílin: Day 1 Agan, Day 2 Lottie (2), Day 3 Inzil (5)
The Day 1 vote for Agan did not have a game-related reason, she was busy. The other two votes look very easy to me.

[Mänwe]

Coin tosses are bad but a throwaway vote for a silent player is not much better really.

Silent but potentially deadly in my opinion :p - everyone really has (as has now been mentioned a number of times after last nights lynchings and murders) overlooked the quiet players vote wise.

I would have seconded that, alas, I think it'd be a throwaway vote at this point, now that I see how many people are left to vote. I am not objecting either of Zil or Nessa, like I said, though if I could, I'd have preferred others... but let's just hope that the death of either of them will bring something good.

"Throwaway" because she hasn't "said" as much as other players and so there isn't much to go on? My vote is based on suspicion like anyone elses, not to mention the fact it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted and not to mention the fact that every majority vote has ended in an innocent being lynched so i'm glad i'm not listening to the majority :p

Just for my own record, people who have been getting votes "wrong", (and who are still alive)

Dead Sally: Wilwa, skip, Agan

Dead Loslote: Shasta, Cailín, Mac, e_d

Dead Inzil: LG, wilwa, Shasta, Pitch, Cailín, Aganzir, Boro

I don't only "pop in"...I'm around all day reading, I just generally don't have any input worth putting in. No lightbulbs, and my non-strategical brain is still getting the hang of this. I'm not nonexistent, I'm just not particularly vocal. Mostly I'm afraid of sticking my foot in my mouth like I did last game.

That's all I meant, my intention was to just highlight your style in this game so far, that you don't post often other than to vote (like me to be fair)..(and you list the reasons why, be they true or not :p)

~~

[Aganzir]

I think it would be a bad idea to lynch her toDay for the same reason I thought it was to lynch her or Inzil yesterDay
I agree. The wolves obviously want us to check her out which points at her being innocent. But even if she's actually a wolf and they're double bluffing, we can afford to wait.

I am wondering about Rikae. She's the first to spring to mind when I think of a wolf genius who could easily manipulate the village with kills like these, but I'm still not sure she would've taken all the actions she has if she's a wolf. My paranoid side would like to lynch her, but I'm not going to do that just because "she could also have done that as a wolf."

I'm beginning to think your lovely non-downer friend might have a point.
I don't, at least for now. But I'm seriously going to kill Mac & Rikae if they're wolves together. (Oh and I'm also going to be mad if Shasta is a wolf because Sappho was originally assigned to me and I would therefore be a wolf if we hadn't changed it.)

Guess that Boro as the cobbler makes sense. If he is, do we let him get away with that?
If we lynch an innocent today, it's 5-6 tomorrow. If we lynch a wolf, it's 4-8, with a tiny tiny chance the baddies can't yet communicate. If we lynch the cobbler, it's 4-7.
And if we lynch an innocent today and the cobbler tomorrow (or the other way round), it won't be of any help because it will be 4-4 the day after tomorrow.

If it wasn't for the double kills I'd be willing to try our luck with Boro today, but this time getting rid of the wolves is so much more important I'm not sure.

And what of newbie Wolves? I can imagine it.
I'm under the impression Nessa isn't exactly a newbie.

If Boro is the Cobbler, then I would say either Rikae and/or Mac and/or Agan are Wolves, or maybe all of them.
What's your explanation for Rikae & Mac voting for their cobbler yesterday when there were more convenient lynch candidates?
Also just saying that if Boro was my cobbler, I could definitely find a more discreet way of contacting him than saying "he reminds me of Cobblemir of old."

Speaking of which... I asked (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=646163&postcount=382) you something, Legate. I'd like to get an answer/clarification.

I need to go soon but I'll be back in some hours.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, looking now at the list of votes, and comparing it to my current suspicions, some of them are generally supported by it, or at least, there is not anything that would place them away. Mac really makes me raise eyebrows now, Elra, Pitch, Cailín too. Aganzir still remains a question. Boro is a Cobbler, if anybody is. Once again thinking of Rikae with her retraction or stuff, I should keep it in mind, that actually makes her look more innocent. I am actually inclined to rather believe in skip's innocence too. Similarly with Greenie herself. Interested about Shasta.

Nessa Telrunya: Day 1 Rikae, Day 2 Rikae, Day 3 Legate
At least she can't be blamed for bandwagoning. Every Day, a vote for someone no one else votes.

Well, one could of course say "that is detaching oneself from the lynch and bandwaggons for innocents", but I am actually of the opinion that it would make Nessa more like independant voter than a Wolf who tries to detach herself from lynches (also given that she voted early).

"Throwaway" because she hasn't "said" as much as other players and so there isn't much to go on? My vote is based on suspicion like anyone elses, not to mention the fact it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted and not to mention the fact that every majority vote has ended in an innocent being lynched so i'm glad i'm not listening to the majority :p

No, I meant that voting her at that point was throwaway because it did not seem very likely that elra could be lynched by that time (and I think that's rather clear from the fact that I wanted to vote her myself, but didn't exactly for this reason - actually by the time I voted, it was totally impossible to lynch her). I see your point being brave and noble and keeping your own mind, but at the points when the WWs are annoying us with two kills per Night, if I realise I cannot vote the person I want to, then I would try to vote probably one of those who still can be lynched, one whom I think to be more likely a Wolf. Unless of course I believe them all innocent.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[A Little Green]

Oh, just remembered to ask this: Nessa, what were your reasons for voting Legate yesterDay?


EDIT: x-ed with Legs

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I'm under the impression Nessa isn't exactly a newbie.
I believe this is just her, like, third game or something?

What's your explanation for Rikae & Mac voting for their cobbler yesterday when there were more convenient lynch candidates?
Well, maybe they thought he won't be going, or did not know, or did not care so much for lynching the Cobbler.

But I am really having contradictory thoughts about both of them. Right now thinking actually better of Rikae because of her voting, though generally I would consider her more suspicious by her posting. Mac, on the other hand, has - or had - rather sensible posting and all, but lately I am wondering if he has not been misleading us all the time. This is just giving me a headache.

Speaking of which... I asked (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=646163&postcount=382) you something, Legate. I'd like to get an answer/clarification.

Yes, I didn't have time to answer it yesterDay. But actually not sure what you mean by it. You didn't say you are a Wolf, you said that you are innocent because you wouldn't kill Ozban. And that's what I think, so I said yes, that's one of the main reasons why I am not suspecting you (among several others, of course).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Now a sort of general summary:

More like innocent
Aganzir
Rikae
Greenie
Skip
Mänwe

More like suspicious
LRH

More like Cobbler
Boro

No idea or not sure
wilwa
Nessa

More like suspicious, though I don't have much of an idea
Pitchwife
Cailín
(I am really worried about these two and would like to see them POSTING!)

Can be either a Wolf or innocent (brilliant idea, isn't it)
Mac
Shasta

The point with the last two basically is: I give myself the question "there has been somebody fooling us all the time. Now, who was it." These two are in some way suspicious, but in some way I think that perhaps I am just suggesting something to myself. With Shasta, I am waiting for him to post (see my early posts toDay). With Mac, I just don't know.

[wilwarin538]

I agree that we would be best to leave Nessa alone for now. It really feels like a set-up on the part of the wolves, and I don't want to walk in to that. Even if she actually was a wolf, there are still 3 others that we could get instead. I just think Nessa is a bit of a risk.

Boro could be the Cobbler, he's likely not Gifted or a Wolf because he would be far more helpful. Perhaps he's a bored ordo? But I don't remember Boro ever acting that way as an Ordo. So yes, Cobbler seems the most likely. And according to Agan's math (Math?!? she must be a wolf! :p ) lynching the Cobbler does no good, so we leave him be.

What's your explanation for Rikae & Mac voting for their cobbler yesterday when there were more convenient lynch candidates?

That's asuming the Wolves know who their Cobbler is. Though I do believe the Cobbler likely sent in their own name the first Night, there is a chance they didn't, or that the Wolves didn't realise that's what they were doing. We can't totally assume the Wolves know their Cobbler (and hope that they don't).

I'm going to go make my own list, try to figure out how I feel about everyone (I already know that there will be quite a few I'm unsure of, partly because I haven't been around enough, and partly cause there are a few who also haven't been around enough)

x'ed with 1 Legate

[A Little Green]

Elra - Her votes are rather bandwagonish, like I said before, even their reasons are often either directly or indirectly relying on arguments made by others. Her phrasings look somewhat fishy and her votes are easy. I'm not convinced though, she says it's her style, and I'm not sure a wolf would be going with the flow so blatantly.

Macalaure - His "apart from what I said before" in reasoning his Lottie vote on Day 2 is interesting. He does say that her vote the Day before was "not good", but after that he lists her as "not really suspicious, but not really innocent either". An innocent can have their opinion change and forget that he didn't actually say it anywhere in the thread. However, I could also see a Macwolf trying to make his vote look like it was grounded on some earlier suspicion that doesn't seem to be there after all. I'd like some thoughts on this one, I'm puzzled. Boro does look cobblerish, which would speak against Mac being a wolf. His vote for Boro out of the blue yesterDay would be a foolish move if he was a wolf and Boro the cobbler.

Shasta - Has only voted for known innocents this far. (That applies to myself as well though, so I'm not the one to start suspecting him for that alone.) He's an enigma to me at the moment, I'd like to look through his posts at some point. I'd like to know, though, if it was a consistent suspicion or simple coincidence that made him vote Lottie twice but with different reasons.

Wilwa - Also has voted for only known innocents this far. Her Day 1 vote for Sally makes me think her innocent, she voted Sally for supposedly leaving a cobbler hint. Sally's post did look like one, which makes me inclined to think a wolf would not have wanted to lynch Sally. Wilwa was the first to vote Sally, and seemed to take the whole issue rather seriously, not talking openly about it at first in hopes of the wolves missing the hint. She also gave more elaborate reasons for voting Inzil than most others.

Nessa - She has voted very independently. I'm not sure of the soundness of her arguments against Rikae, and would love to hear why she voted Legate. Could be a wolf distancing herself from the lynches, could be independent-minded innocent.

Pitchwife - Has only voted for the two "enigmas" Nessa and Inzil, and the votes are always placed 3rd or 4th (which might also have to do with time issues). If both Inzil and Nessa were set up by the wolves to distract the village, Pitch looks pretty bad. If Nessa is a wolf, Pitch likely isn't - bandwagoning against a fellow in danger twice in a row would be foolish, considering how big an advantage the pack gets from being all together.

Rikae - The retraction on Day 2 would have been a pointless move for a wolf (which, if she is a wolf, would be precisely why she did it). The same thing as with Mac though: if Boro is indeed the cobbler, she is likely not a wolf.

Boro - Possible cobbler. I have a hard time seeing him as a wolf, he seems too uninvolved and too disinclined to manipulate. Could be bored ordo as well, but then, I remember Borordos who have been really involved and in the middle of things.

Skip - Has a track record of easy votes. Day 1 he votes Sally on an "icky feeling", Day 2 Elra for being a submarine, Day 3 Nessa. I'm still of the opinion that a wolf would not have wanted to lynch Sally on Day 1 unless they missed the hint that wasn't a hint. Other than that, Skip doesn't look too good to me.

Mänwe - There's still a bit too little to go on here to say anything for sure.

Legate - He has this miserable air of always ending up voting Nessa against his will. If Nessa is a wolf, I doubt Legate is one, because it would seem foolish that in tight voting situations he would end up voting a fellow wolf by elimination method. He's giving me good vibes in general right now.

Aganzir - Her votes look fishy by themselves, but taking into account her reasons for them they look a lot better I think. And the Sally thing is also true of Agan, who sealed Sally's fate with her vote. Also, I wonder - she made quite a show of dropping cobbler hints on Day 1, and then gets really upset when Sally does the same. Leaning innocent.

Cailín - Looks fishy. Her votes are no more bandwagonish than, say, Agan's, but her reasons behind them look fabricated to me. I'll be going through her posts toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with two Legs and a Butterfly

[wilwarin538]

So mostly on feeling, or just on their tone. I'll take a closer look at the people in my last two categories, to get a stronger feeling, when I get back.

Think are probably fine
Nessa
Greenie
Skip
Agan

Haven't the slightest
Mac & Rikae (putting them here because I want to trust them, but am now paranoid that one of them is being sneaky)
Pitch
Legate (again, want to trust, but not sure)
Cailin

Feel off
e_d
Shasta
Boro (though I'm leaning Cobbler)
Manwe (this might sound weird, but it's because he doesn't post much, but posts as if he's contributing a lot...I hope that makes sense)

x'ed with Greenie

[Pitchwife]

Present and reading to catch up.

[Rikae]

Edit: Guess that Boro as the cobbler makes sense. If he is, do we let him get away with that?

Are you suggesting lynching a cobbler would be a good idea at this point? :rolleyes:

I voted Boro because I thought he might be a seer-dreamed wolf. Legate, you should know better than to ask why an innocent would be so mysterious, and the fact that you ask makes me more distrustful of you.

As for Mac and I being more wolvish if Boro is the cobbler, that makes no sense at all, since the whole theory rests on us trying to lynch our cobbler knowingly and yet you're trying to explain it as voting for him unknowingly. There is a theory that collapses on itself. I suppose Boro as an alternative bandwagon because we didn't want to dirty our hands with the Inzil lynch would make sense, but for two wolves to vote on each others' heels like that merely to have an alternative wagon seems silly. Sure, I might. I might do anything. You're just going to have to live with that. :p
It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, though.

Boro, since you think lynching Nessa toDay is so important, can you give us your reasons?

[skip spence]

Anyway, I never said that voting or suspecting Nessa is worse. That's your addition, and it doesn't make me feel better one bit.

Actually you're probably right. When I skimmed your analysis earlier I got the impression that you deducted more points from those who voted or suspected Nessa than those who voted or suspected Inzil which made me draw that conclusion. Now looking at it again I see it is now quite so, at least not in a conspicuous way.

Still that analysis of yours makes me wary. As far as I know voting Nessa might have a good vote. Yes it certainly seems like the wolves are offering her of a plate for us - and I agree that is the most likely scenario - but Nessa might also be a wolf, let's not forget that. Your analysis treats her as an innocent.

If we assume that Boro is the cobbler, a Mac-wolf's vote for Boro-cobbler (whom he probably knows the identity of) also makes sense to me, given that his long analysis is built on the Inzil/Nessa trail as an obvious set-up, and that he is casting suspicion on just about everyone who's partaken in it, and by implication making it a moral high-ground to stay away from it. He wouldn't have thought Boro would go end up lynched anyway I think, and if an accident were to happen, that wouldn't have been that bad for team-evil anyway. Hardly a problem at all in fact, given Agan's maths.

No, I'm not very happy about Mac. However, I feel I'm also reeling myself up. I should be around for most of the rest of the Day. Will step back and do some serious reading before drawing any serious conclusions.

Also, nice work with the vote-summaries Greenie!

Edit: x'ed with a few

(not saying that makes her look better, mind you, she is also one who we should have a closer look at)

[Nessa Telrunya]

Oh, just remembered to ask this: Nessa, what were your reasons for voting Legate yesterDay?


EDIT: x-ed with Legs

Something about the phrasing is starting to set off those little mental alarms I have. After the Night kills, Legate sounds astoundingly like a gloating wolf. Also, with my Rikae suspicion waning, the obvious candidates would have been the major bandwagons(Inzil) but I can't in good conscience vote in the middle of a bandwagon. I've found that mostly they rely on popular opinion rather than solid evidence, and it's too easy to get sucked in without really thinking about what you're doing. And since I didn't want to vote otherwise, I figured I may as well go with my suspicion of Legate, and get a new name out for consideration.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I voted Boro because I thought he might be a seer-dreamed wolf. Legate, you should know better than to ask why an innocent would be so mysterious, and the fact that you ask makes me more distrustful of you.
If you think what I think you think, then let me basically say that I see no reason for the innocents not to speak plainly, because the WWs know as much as the innocents do anyway, and why I have been wondering is because what you said could have been a hint to a cobbler for all I know. Anyway, let's not speak of this further, I agree, but see my previous sentence (unless you have something totally different in mind. I'd just want to know, once the matter is settled, what it was).

EDIT: xed with skip and Nessa

[skip spence]

Are you suggesting lynching a cobbler would be a good idea at this point? :rolleyes:

At the time I didn't have time to think it though, so it was an honest question ie "should we?" Seeing Agan's maths I think it wouldn't be a very good idea no.

And regarding your criticism of Legate, those little tricks you do Rikae, they are not very subtle, are they? If you are innocent, the wolves can plainly see them unless they are incompetent which I very much doubt. It certainly seems like something an innocent, possibly gifted, would try rather than a wolf, and I've seen you as a likely innocent because of this, but you would know this well also.

[skip spence]

I can't in good conscience vote in the middle of a bandwagon. I've found that mostly they rely on popular opinion rather than solid evidence, and it's too easy to get sucked in without really thinking about what you're doing. And since I didn't want to vote otherwise, I figured I may as well go with my suspicion of Legate, and get a new name out for consideration.
You know, it's hard to lynch anyone without a bandwagon.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Manwe

#213 - Mentions that he'd like to see more from anyone with three or less posts, which is funny, because this is his first post of the game. Specifically mentions Cailin, BG, Greenie, and Elronhubbard. Of these, Cailin is "accountable, just" and the rest are "unaccountable".

#331 - Defends the quieter folk, here -
Quieter folk are the easiest to tarnish with the same brush and leave the greater possibility for a judgement error on behalf of their would be jurors. Although I would concede the more quiet the less likely you are to say something that'll give you away. But this reminds me of something Rikae mentioned that irked me a little

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
...but if we lynch a good quiet one, at least the remaining innocents will be the more helpful ones, alive or wolf-killed
I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it

Quiet can't be so black or white, for in those names that Legate mentioned there are those who have made the odd post, and those that have popped in to vote; two very different quiet "strategies" if you will...elronds_daughter being case in point with two very wild votes.
...which seems odd to me, considering his only previous post calls out the quiet ones.

He also asks Legate to clarify a question regarding Kath/Ozban and Greenie not wanting to vote either one.

#343 - Notes Rikae' clarifcation about the point he mentioned not liking earlier.

#428 - Asks if playstyles really don't change that much from game to game. Won't vote for Boro. Wishes he were the Seer [?]. Will vote for an 'extreme' because a wolf hides there. Votes Elronhubbard. Makes a point of saying that she's 'one he has mentioned in his posts' as if he's defending his vote before ever being asked - "It's okay that I voted her, I mentioned her as slightly suspicious already!"

#438 - Defends his vote.
I've only popped in to vote once...E_D has twice and soon to be thrice

#477 - Mentions that everyone has 'overlooked the quiet players, vote-wise'. I wonder why he mentions this - it's another flipflop on quiet players, in my opinion. Three posts ago he was defending the quiet players, and a post before that he was calling them out.
"Throwaway" because she hasn't "said" as much as other players and so there isn't much to go on? My vote is based on suspicion like anyone elses, not to mention the fact it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted and not to mention the fact that every majority vote has ended in an innocent being lynched so i'm glad i'm not listening to the majority
Regarding his Elronhubbard vote. Now, to me, this looks like a rather hasty defense, and what does 'it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted' mean? Are we keeping our hands clean, Manwe? :p The third point has no bearing on anything.
He mentions people that are alive and have been getting votes "wrong" -

Dead Sally: Wilwa, skip, Agan

Dead Loslote: Shasta, Cailín, Mac, e_d

Dead Inzil: LG, wilwa, Shasta, Pitch, Cailín, Aganzir, Boro
That's rather a lot of players to throw suspicion on.

Oh, and he immediately backtracks when Elronhubbard herself comments on his vote -
Quote:
Originally Posted by elronds_daughter View Post
I don't only "pop in"...I'm around all day reading, I just generally don't have any input worth putting in. No lightbulbs, and my non-strategical brain is still getting the hang of this. I'm not nonexistent, I'm just not particularly vocal. Mostly I'm afraid of sticking my foot in my mouth like I did last game.
That's all I meant, my intention was to just highlight your style in this game so far, that you don't post often other than to vote (like me to be fair)..(and you list the reasons why, be they true or not)

Conclusion - Manwe's opinion on quiet players changes three times in six posts. He asks Legate for clarification on a point that he never follows up on (to act like he's being active, maybe? Asking questions does look like activity), his several defenses of his Elronhubbard vote look jumpy to me AND there's backtracking going on (and the reason for that vote to begin with was shoddy), he tries to throw suspicion on about eight people at once with his 'getting votes wrong' post. I think Manwe is the first person to enter my 'Red' category.

[Macalaure]

Except for a little skirmishing with Pitch at the beginning, people were thinking I'm innocent all the time. Glad that seems to be changing now. ;)

*takes off velvet gloves*

Your analysis treats her as an innocent.As I've shown, the conclusions are almost identical even if Nessa is not included.

If we assume that Boro is the cobbler, a Mac-wolf's vote for Boro-cobbler (whom he probably knows the identity of) also makes sense to me, given that his long analysis is built on the Inzil/Nessa trail as an obvious set-up, and that he is casting suspicion on just about everyone who's partaken in it, and by implication making it a moral high-ground to stay away from it. He wouldn't have thought Boro would go end up lynched anyway I think, and if an accident were to happen, that wouldn't have been that bad for team-evil anyway. Hardly a problem at all in fact, given Agan's maths.Your argument fails in multiple ways:
-If I just wanted to stay away from the Nessa/Inzil waggons, I could have voted anybody. Why needlessly endanger the cobbler?
-You seem to assume that I already had the whole Nessa/Inzil analysis ready before Inzil was actually dead, and before people started acting extremely suspicious after I left.
-I am not suspecting everybody who took a part in it: I suspect Pitch, Agan, and Legate significantly less than you, Cailín, and Shasta.


I like how you probe into the possibility of lynching the cobbler and immediately jump away from it after Rikae called you on it. Nice try Skipwolf :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Cailin

#10 - IC banter.

#18 - likes Boro. Approves of Pitch. Wary of Eomer. Votes Agan, 'because I owe her one'. Typical random reason for a Day 1 vote, looks like.

#178 - Thought Sally looked fairly innocent. This comment pings my radar a tiny bit, but it's a Lottie-reason. Thinks Lottie looks shady, looking at the Sallywagon.
Feels good about Legate, Lommy, Rikae, Inzil, Boro, Eomer, Kitanna, and Agan. Says the wolves are Mac, Greenie, Lottie, and Nessa.

#186 - The start of an exchange with Rikae regarding wolfish behavior and easy lynches. Cailin thinks wolves are less likely to actively push bad lynches, feeling instead that it's more sensible to 'go with the flow and come up with a mildly credible explanation afterward'.
Also mentions Nessa looks fairly bad after Ozban's death.

#205 - Continuance. Rikae wonders why a wolf wouldn't be actively seeking reasons to suspect someone, but would make unfounded accusations that were easily attackable. Cailin responds with -
I just think that completely unfounded accusations on Day 1 are actually easier and more convincingly defended.
I'm torn here. Part of me is thinking that this exchange looks innocent for both Rikae and Cailin, but then part of me is thinking Cailin looks like someone who has just realized she's pulling more attention that she would like, and so ends her conversation.
Feels better about Mac for much the same reasons I did, and would rather not lynch Kitanna-hunter.

#220 - Continuance. Rikae persists and Cailin does more peacemaking "can we drop the subject" here.

#221 - Analyzes Wilwa and Nessa. As a conclusion, thinks Wilwa is innocent ("I doubt she is evil") and Nessa she says "has done little to make herself look innocent". I think I've said this before, but I don't really like the way this is worded, as if Nessa being a wolf is a foregone conclusion.

#260 - Uncomfortable with Lottie's vote and doesn't like Wilwa's abstention - a bit of a flip flop from her previous post, where she says she doubts Wilwa is evil.

#273 - Doesn't like what she sees of Lottie, gives several reasons. Would not be averse to lynching Nessa, either. Suspecting Cailin for being against Lottie is hypocritical of me, but I will say I'm not sure I like how she leaves herself open to vote Nessa if the bandwagon swings that way.

#287 - A list of players: Guilty and Innocent. Of interest are the fact that Wilwa and Boro are "guilty", as opposed to how Cailin felt about them earlier, and Valier appears on the "guilty" side for a reason I'm not sure I understand.
Valier - I remember Valier quite well from the distant past. She does not give me a fuzzy feeling as of yet.
I generally take 'fuzzy' to mean 'wolfish', which would make it odd that Valier is there for not being 'fuzzy'. Am I just misreading?

#296 - Votes Lottie.

#346 - Says she had Lommy down as innocent from the start. Will be looking at Skip because she thinks Valier was a suspected Seer.

#375 - Quick and dirty analysis of Valier - says if the wolves thought she was the Seer, Nessa and Rikae look good and Skip looks bad.

#378 - Mentions she went over Lommy as well.
Lommy was almost certainly not a we-are-looking-for-the-Seer kill but a let's-get-her-now-before-she-starts-making-sense kill or something involving Inzil (bluff, double bluff, you all know the drill).
I don't necessarily disagree, but I'm not sure I'd use the words 'almost certainly' in a werewolf game. :p

#381 - Thanks Inzil for his Elronhubbard analysis (I think?). Agrees, but pushes her suspicion of Skip here, saying that his vote for Elronhubbard looked like an attempt at a bandwagon.

#398 - Another list. Wilwa is under 'others' as Cailin doesn't like any of her posts (which comes as a surprise, considering her early analysis of Wilwa, but Cailin has been consistent regarding Wilwa for a few days now, so I'm unsure). The rest of the list seems to be okay, but I confess I'm still waiting for the skip analysis we were promised.

#402 - Puzzled by skip's list, and puzzled by Nessa's attitude. This post kind of feels like 'posting-for-the-sake-of-posting'.

#421 - Agrees that Inzil and Nessa will continue to be a distraction. Doesn't see any reason to vote Boro. Still suspicious of skip - what I'm not liking is that Cailin continues to be 'suspicious' of skip but makes no real effort to push said suspicion.

#427 - Votes Inzil. Honestly, the reason about Inzil's vote for Boro at the last second is one I agree with - it did look shady.

#431 - Coin tosses are bad but a throwaway vote for a silent player is not much better really.
Haha. I agree.


Conclusions - Cailin is definitely someone to watch. She's got both good and bad points for her - I don't necessarily see full-blown lupinity here, but she's definitely more suspicious than I thought she was. (Wow, don't I sound wishy washy? :p)

[Rikae]

And regarding your criticism of Legate, those little tricks you do Rikae, they are not very subtle, are they? If you are innocent, the wolves can plainly see them unless they are incompetent which I very much doubt. It certainly seems like something an innocent, possibly gifted, would try rather than a wolf, and I've seen you as a likely innocent because of this, but you would know this well also.

They must be very subtle, since I have no idea what trick you were talking about.

[skip spence]

Except for a little skirmishing with Pitch at the beginning, people were thinking I'm innocent all the time. Glad that seems to be changing now. ;)

*takes off velvet gloves*

*picks up one of Mac's velvet gloves and slaps him across the cheek with it*
As I've shown, the conclusions are almost identical even if Nessa is not included.
That's hardly the point. You accuse the people who went with the Inzil/Nessa trail, regardless of who they accuse (gives them negative points) and credit those who stayed away from it, that's the point.

Your argument fails in multiple ways:
-If I just wanted to stay away from the Nessa/Inzil waggons, I could have voted anybody. Why needlessly endanger the cobbler?
Because if you vote for the cobbler and not an ordo, there is no vindictive innocent to deal with the next Day?

Because, like Agan has shown, the loss of the cobbler is not that heavy a blow for the wolves, and that you'd look better afterwards lynching a cobbler rather than an innocent?

Because either Nessa or Inzil looked very likely to get lynched regardless of your vote for Boro?

Because you didn't know or suspect Boro was the cobbler (I certainly don't)

Each one of these explanations seem plausible to me.
-You seem to assume that I already had the whole Nessa/Inzil analysis ready before Inzil was actually dead, and before people started acting extremely suspicious after I left.
Once again: The usual suspects Nessa and Inzil did look very likely to get lynched from early on (as far I can remember anyway),
-I am not suspecting everybody who took a part in it: I suspect Pitch, Agan, and Legate significantly less than you, Cailín, and Shasta.
But you did consistently award negative points (ie a suspicion) for anyone who favoured either Nessa or Inzil.

I like how you probe into the possibility of lynching the cobbler and immediately jump away from it after Rikae called you on it. Nice try Skipwolf
:p
That not how it was, and you know it, Mac-wolf! :p

Now dinner, and then I'll read though Shasta's analysis of Mänwe. I'll try to have a look at another person as well, maybe Greenie or Agan.

Edit: x'ed with shasta and rikae (fine, have it that way!)

[Pitchwife]

Ouch. That lynch yesterDay was ein Griff ins Klo, as we say in German (roughly 'grabbed from the loo', in the sense that you get a handful of - well, you know what). Poor Zil, that was a nasty set-up by the wolves.

So far, I'm afraid we've made the wolves' job pretty easy, and our numbers are dwindling rapidly. Our big assets are that our two remaining gifteds are still alive, so there's still hope.

Speaking of Zil, sadly there's not as much to learn from knowing his role as I hoped there would, now I think it over with a clearer mind. OK, we know that the vote that saved Nessa on Day 2 wasn't made by a packmate, but we still don't know whether he was swayed by an innocent or evil Nessa.
But at the moment, I tend to leave Nessa to the Seer. Like Eomer said yesterDay, chances are high they've already dreamed her (I certainly would have if it was me), and if they haven't, I think they should.
(By the way, I think it's quite possible the wolves interpreted that comment as a seer hint from Eomer himself, hence his death.)

As to Rikae's mysterious #467 and the speculations about it - I think I see what she's driving at (or let's say I have a hypothesis), and if I'm right, I'd much rather nobody had mentioned it, least of all said "It certainly seems like something an innocent, possibly gifted, would try rather than a wolf" (skip! Really?:rolleyes:).

EDIT: x-ed from #495 down

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, re: Agan - if you're 'green' it means I don't plan to vote you - and I wouldn't plan to vote the cobbler in any case. :p

[Rikae]

Skip, I can only assume that you're saying I couldn't have spotted any seer hint the wolves would have missed, since I'm not nearly as clever as they are. Well, if you say so. I can only assume you know what you're talking about...