WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
Legate starts off by saying that he would've expected Zil and Pitch to be more serious. He says this is about the only game he considers the cobbler significant enough to lynch, and in the next paragraph he states the wolves probaby care more about the cobbler in a game like this. Sorry. I just had to point that out. :p

Legate is mildly wary about Inzil and mentions that Pitch and I talked about the cobbler. Kath looks genuine, interested and active to him, and of the others he has no opinion. Sally hadn't appeared so far. He also defends Menel against Lommy and Nog, saying he seemed only to be bantering, and remembers he was often lynched early because of something trivial. Legate concludes by saying he'd be wary of that, especially on day 1.
Later he finds G55's reaction to the Menel case awkward, as if she was fueling the flames even though she ended up not voting for him. He goes to a length to defend Menel against what he sees as unjust accusations. I can understand that because I too remember Menel as an easy victim for an early lynch, so one's being a wolf doesn't necessarily point at the other's guilt.

He doesn't like Nog who, he says, reacted jumpily to something Pitch said and keeps going after Menel, but takes back his suspicion in his next post a couple of hours later because he has good points. Choosing between those who already have votes, he thinks about voting for G55 even though Pitch is also an option and he'll be looking hard at Lommy for her Menel suspicion and general harshness. He ends up voting for G55 who is still creepier than Pitch.

DAY 2
Legate accuses Nog of stretching when he speculates on Inzil's possible Menel/G55 dream. He says G55 is very defensive, but even though he questions her, he isn't going very hard against her at first but also points out that some of her responses look genuine. He maintains a vague suspicion of Nogrod and says Nerwen has sharp and genuine-looking points.

After reading Inzil's posts, he concludes that if Inzil dreamed of somebody, it was probably Menel. He keeps questioning G55 (to the extent that she gets quite exasperated with him - no wonder because he asks the same questions in different words in four posts), and acknowledges that if G55 is a wolf, it might point at Nog and/or sally being wolves as well because they tried to save her. He then says that he could also vote for Nog because he's still the wariest about him, and raises eyebrows at sally who thinks Nog and G55 can't be wolves together, asking if she only thinks so because one could compare her to Nog based on their voting behaviour on day 1.

He quotes me when I listed points against sally and says there's something to it, sally is just throwing around ideas, for example saying I act weirdly, which has some merit. Basically he turns it over and ends up calling me stubborn for voting sally (retaliation he calls it). And he's a bit worried about Lommy following my vote for sally because "this sudden turn away from G55 might be actually another attempt to save a fellow Wolf." To him, the suspicious part was that Lommy had been suspecting G55 during the day and then suddenly just changed her mind without prior warning.

He then makes a list and concludes that some of G55's posts looked genuine, some suspicious (he mentions confusing answers, the possible slip and the self-vote, the significance of which he can't tell); Nog stays on his suspicion list (for casting around suspicion - day 1 on Menel & Pitch, day 2 on G55 and sally); and Lommy is awkward because of her jump on sally. Nerwen is the only one he seems to find innocent - she's sharp and witty, so he doesn't have a reason to say anything against her, unless he wants to be paranoid. He'd prefer voting for G55 and Nog and doesn't want to jump on the sallywagon because it would be too random and she hasn't said enough to analyse.

Legate keeps accusing Nog and speculates a tiny bit on the possibility of G55, Nog and sally being wolves together, but then says they can't be because Nog wouldn't start suspecting sally all of a sudden if he wanted to keep the village off his fellows. He agrees with Nerwen that it might even be plausible that sally was the cobbler, but repeats that he'd like to see more from her. And he considers voting for Nog and G55 again, saying G55's role might clarify sally & Nog's roles as well (ie. make them look more innocent, right?) He ends up voting for G55 because he doesn't want to start a third bandwagon.

DAY 3
He says the only thing G55's death clarified was that Nog and sally weren't wolves saving a fellow on day 1 (even though of course they could still be wolves). He suggests one of the reasons Lommy was killed was voting for someone else than G55 so we could make even less out of day 2's voting.

Legate amuses me because the more I read, the better I can see him and sally as fellows. He doesn't fail to mention that even though Lommy voted for sally, she found G55 and who else than Nogrod even more suspicious than her, and that she also suspected me! And that because Lommy thought Menel was a dreamt of innocent, he wouldn't have wanted to kill her if he's a wolf. Legate suggests Lommy was killed for suspecting at least one wolf, because the people she suspected were those Legate suspected too. This would mean Nog and/or I were wolves. You decide if this is plausible.

He's still the most suspicious of Nogrod, and wants to take a look at Kath, Shasta and me. I'm getting bored with these long posts. He eventually takes a look at us. I'm apparently not suspicious any more (even though I say random stuff), it was just my vote for sally on day 2 that made me look bad. Shasta might be an under the radar villain, but not necessarily. Kath looked good at the beginning but became quieter then, but in spite of that she looks good, partly because of meta-reasoning after her confusion about Pitch's death. So basically none of us are very suspicious. Legate explains his reasons for considering a vote for Nog again, and I'm linking it here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=670987&postcount=188) because there's no sense for me to sum it up in this post. There's some more back and forth with Nog, and in the end Legate votes for him because he has to leave.

DAY 4
Legate needs to reevaluate his opinion of Nogrod.

[Meneltarmacil]

If you're wondering why I didn't vote, I had moved to a different timezone the Night before Day 3 and hadn't accounted for the change in deadline as a result.

[Aganzir]

If you're wondering why I didn't vote, I had moved to a different timezone the Night before Day 3 and hadn't accounted for the change in deadline as a result.
I'm actually wondering more what you think of everyone... ;)

[Nogrod]

I'm actually wondering more what you think of everyone... ;)Seconded.

And do not only tell us that you have a theory into which person A or B fits into, but tell us about your theory as well so that we can appreciate it to its worth.

For a moment football wins werewolf :), but I'll be back after the game...

[Nogrod]

Just before the game (Netherlands - Portugal) begins...

What Agan just said could reveal a part of the puzzle why there was no major effort to save Sally near the DL. A part, to be sure - but it seems Legate did what he could to persuade others to vote a "not-Sally" when he still was around...

Okay, the game started. Back later.

[Aganzir]

Here are some things that made me concerned about Nerwen.

So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss.
It's similar to sally's later "I wonder if Agan is a baddie. Discuss."

After Lommy and my votes for sally, Nerwen quoted her question about finding the cobbler, called it odd and suggested sally's behaviour might fit her being the cobbler (but then, so might Lommy's).

On day 3, I analysed sally, and Nerwen commented (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=671004&postcount=201) demurely on a minor point (the quote should be mine, not sally's). That was the first thing that alarmed me about her because that's exactly how she tends to react to a fellow wolf getting under suspicion - agreeing but not agreeing, if you know what I mean. She continutes it in a later post:
Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.

However later, in 211, she offers Nog (who had suggested a pack of Shasta, Legate and Nerwen) a compromise - Shasta, Legate and sally. Yes sally had received some suspicion, but then Nerwen had been suspicious of Nog herself. Anyway I'm not quite sure she'd be that willing to bus a fellow because it was by no means certain we'd lynch sally.

So yeah, I'm far more certain of Legate's guilt. It's impossible to ever accuse Nerwen with absolute certainty (except when she starts off by saying that terrible things have happened - this is what you get for reminding me of my slips :p), but I don't think her being a wolf is far-fetched. Even though it could of course also be Menel or Kath. The latter was acting weirdly yesterday (actually all of the game to be honest), while we haven't seen much of the former... But then, if Kath was a wolf, wouldn't she have voted for Nogrod with Legate?

[Meneltarmacil]

Nogrod and Shasta don't look like wolves. Their cross-posted votes for Sally put her in the lead to be lynched, and Sally's vote for Nog instead of Agan leads toward that direction as well.

Kath's silence makes her pretty unreadable. Could go either way; there just isn't enough information to tell.

Nerwen voted very late and voted for Sally. She was beyond saving, though, so it could potentially be a wolf-on-wolf.

Yet something really bothers me about yesterday's voting. If even one innocent did vote for another, the three wolves could have banded together to take that number up to four. Even if the other villagers all voted for an alternative lynch, the wolves would still win.

But after Legate voted for Nogrod and Kath voted for Aganzir, no such wolf-pile occurred. Sally did try to add to the Nogrod votes, but the other wolves didn't. Either we've got some rather unintelligent wolves, or either Legate or Kath is a wolf who voted too early.

All in all, I'd really like to see some answers regarding the wolves' actions.

[Nogrod]

Half-time...

if Kath was a wolf, wouldn't she have voted for Nogrod with Legate?Exactly.

The wolves knew they could more or less nail it yesterDay so why not use the chance? There had been enough stated suspicions coming my way Kath could have easily picked up and voted with. Being forced to vote that early she could have gotten away with it...

But she didn't. So a reason for me to trust on her toDay at least (well, unless things go very complicated).

I'm also trusting Agan's revelation as long as there are no counter-claims. And even if there is, they must be followed by some exceptionally believable stuff looking at both Agan's vote yesterDay (the same fits to her vote as with Kath's, or even more as it was already the third vote and she herself already had a vote when introducing a new votée) and all the sense she has been making toDay.

I was ready to vote Legate already yesterDay and (unless something unpredictable happens or unforeseen arguments come forwards) and reading through Agan's analysis hasn't exactly weakend my stance on that.

But even if Legate is a wolf (and I hope to delve into that myself as well later on) we still miss the third.

And if I'm right about the three I have been talking about, then it is one from Shasta, Nerwen, Meneltarmacil... and it could be anyone, really.

I hope to go through yesterDay in regards Shasta & Nerwen to look at ther reactions to Sally getting nearer the gallows, but was it Menel, the riddle of why Sally was left alone to die would have been solved.

EDIT: X'd with Menel... back with you after the game...

[Aganzir]

Either we've got some rather unintelligent wolves, or either Legate or Kath is a wolf who voted too early.
Exactly. And this is one of the reasons I'm really suspicious of Legate.

I'm also trusting Agan's revelation as long as there are no counter-claims.
Oh come on, I'll be dead tonight anyway so no need to doubt. ;)

I hope to go through yesterDay in regards Shasta & Nerwen to look at ther reactions to Sally getting nearer the gallows, but was it Menel, the riddle of why Sally was left alone to die would have been solved.
Nope. At least one innocent would've had to vote for you, Nog. Even if Nerwen (or Shasta) is a wolf, they couldn't very well just give you a vote and wait for the other (or Menel) to follow suit. There was no chance they could've saved sally, what with the general opinion leaning towards lynching her rather than you.

Nog brought up a good point about Kath. Yes obviously if she was a wolf, she would've voted for Nogrod with Legate instead of me. Shasta looks relatively good, especially after yesterday. Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him), plus I have a hard time seeing Legate defending a fellow so outrageously obviously. Method of elimination (plus the points I mentioned earlier) leave Nerwen as the remaining wolf.

++LEGATE OF AMON LANC

Because there's no chance he's not a wolf.

I may or may not pop in before work tomorrow depending on how early I get up. Now I'm going to bed with Lovecraft. ;)

Good luck.

[Nogrod]

I'm also trusting Agan's revelation as long as there are no counter-claims.
Oh come on, I'll be dead tonight anyway so no need to doubt. ;)Heh. I did actually continue from where you quoted with this: And even if there is, they must be followed by some exceptionally believable stuff looking at both Agan's vote yesterDay (the same fits to her vote as with Kath's, or even more as it was already the third vote and she herself already had a vote when introducing a new votée) and all the sense she has been making toDay.So it takes some game-changing arguments for me to not trust you here Agan. Like let's say Legate is lynched and is not a wolf, and you are alive toMorrow - and there's another ranger-reveal... or something of that scope. I mean never say never, but yeah, thus far I have no reason not to trust your revelation.

I'll check the late part of yesterDay if there is anything worth noticing. And I do encourage others to do that too.

[Kath]

Oy, I have not been silent. I have been struggling with this deadline. Feels like I'm always playing catch up. And I'll be voting within half an hour again.

My vote yesterDay was based on the fact that I thought the wolves must have seen something in Lommy's posts to bother killing her. She was by no means trailless. I had to vote early and I wanted to make sure her posts were looked at in case she was on to something. Don't think I really succeeded but hey.

Agan's ranger reveal I'm willing to take at face value. If she's a wolf it's an impressive ploy but (I think) all the players have turned up now and I would have thought there would have been a counter reveal by now if she wasn't the real one.

So, this leaves me with:
Nog
Nerwen
Shasta
Legate
Menel

As potential wolves. Off to look at the thread.

[Meneltarmacil]

As for me, my major suspects at the moment are Nerwen, Legate, and Kath.

[Kath]

Day 1:
Nog - feels that Menel going on about influential players is a crusade to stop people talking. This is pretty far fetched. Oddly defensive against Pitch, who hadn't actually threatened to vote for him. Now very aggressive against Pitch. Also aggressive against Menel. Suspicions of Pitch and G55 (new suspicion of G55 here) and states that he won't vote Menel. Said G55's vote for Pitch made it unlikely both are wolves, but they come up as his main vote possibilities.

Nerwen - sarcastic about Menel. Defends Agan's use of her - fair enough.

Shasta - defends Menel a little. Suspects Pitch for being suspicious about people talking of the Cobbler. Doesn't like G55's suspicion of Menel. Suspected G55 for backtracking on her suspicions and for faulty reasoning behind her vote. Fair reasons, but obviously a wolf can twist reasons to their liking.

Legate - expected more from Inzil and Pitch. This is 10 posts in. Even the most serious players can have one banter post surely! Makes the point I was trying to get to about the Cobbler needing to be lynched rather than Night killed. Pretty much defends Menel, and quite strongly. Looks at Nog and Lommy for focusing on him. Again defends Menel, this time against G55. Suspects Nog for his jumpy reaction to Pitch. Backtracks on Nog saying he has calmed down. Is looking to vote G55.

Menel - was talked about a lot for his 'Captain obvious' comments. I mean, they were obvious, but on Day 1 where conversation needs to be pushed so you don't get a list of 'oh no it's Day 1' posts I don't think this was too deeply suspicious. Reiterates Captain obvious statements. Reiterates Captain obvious statements again. Reiterates Captain obvious statements yet again. (I know he was trying to explain his point, but to be honest I think everyone had got it by now, we were more looking for some opinions on who these influential wolves are then just hearing the theory again.) Aha! Suspects Inzil. Votes him.

Day 2:
Nog - very reluctant to give clear theories on Inzil's possible dreams. Understandable. But I feel like given how strong he was on all his ideas the Day before that the wishy-washyness is odd. Given that none of G55, Inzil, Pitch or Agan (assuming on that last one) was a wolf, Nog's last vote for Pitch was not any kind of 'saving' vote, which would look suspicious by now, but was just the nail in the coffin. Suspicious simply for doing that, Nog is not a cowardly wolf. Was very gleeful after having decided G55 was definitely suspicious and then this 'Galwolf slip' which now clearly wasn't. He was right about sally though not based on what she said about G55. Sudden deep suspicion of sally for not suspecting him. It's so sudden I'm not sure it is wolf on wolf, unless he suddenly saw sally had put him as not suspicious and worried it would come back to bite him in later Days. Still determined G55 is a wolf but is equally suspicious of sally. Repeats this.

Nerwen - pushing G55 as a wolf idea. Nerwen's 'what is Nog? Discuss' comment is rather ... lazy. Feels like 'I can't be bothered to work it out'. But then Nerwen isn't a cowardly wolf either. If Nog is a wolf not sure Nerwen would be. Half-hearted suspicion doesn't feel like her. Slightly defends G55. Thinks sally or Lommy could be the Cobbler.

Shasta - points out sally's comment makes G55's early comment into more of a drama than it maybe would have been otherwise. Defends G55. Points out Menel ignores Nog but thinks sally suspicious based on the voting. Suspicion of sally. Had u-turned on G55 after her 'Galwolf' thing and decides we have to know her role now.

Legate - thinks Nog is stretching a lot, which is interesting given how vague Nog was about what Inzil might have dreamt. Had good points about G55 maybe not being a wolf as she was only going to come under suspicion again. Thinks Inzil dreamt Menel, is confused by G55. Slightly defends G55. If he and Nog are both wolves this kind of works - Nog attacks and Legate defends. Looks to see if Nerwen will vote with him on Nog. Probably unlikely that Legate and Nerwen are both wolves based on that. Wants to vote Nog or G55, discounting sally because he feels he needs to hear more from her. Wants to vote G55 as it will make the roles of others clearer. I don't see that voting Nog wouldn't have had largely the same effect but then he wasn't up for the lynch.

Menel - agrees with the suspicion about G55 and says it implicates sally.

Day 3:
Nog - very defeatist. I mean, this whole thing could have been a carefully done ploy, especially as he was first in. It's a hell of an effort though. Says Legate is pushing Day 1 voting. As I read it, he wasn't, but this could easily be a language barrier thing. Shouts: Shasta, Legate, Nerwen. Well we know it can't be all three now. And still suspects sally, so this isn't a serious list anyway. Sad face after 'the cobbler is no more' ... weird. Defends himself, was pretty reasonable, got aggressive again at the end. Haven't played in a while - is this how Nog plays now? Willing to vote sally or Legate - with sally having already received a vote. Though Nog then shows himself willing to go for Agan, which would be using my vote. And backtracks a little on sally. Yet now states he'll vote her.

Nerwen - didn't like Shasta's excuse of voting G55 to remove a distraction. Again wishy-washy on Nog. Doesn't like Agan's out-of-context quote and my suspicion of Agan (which, by the way, I hadn't realised at all that Agan was apparently joking). Suggests Shasta, Legate and sally as a trio. Possible I think.

Shasta - questions Menel, suggests sally is suspicious. Interesting point about votes not being jumped on, points the finger at Legate. Legate voted for Nog, so if Nog is a wolf it makes sense no one would have jumped on it. Not jumping on Agan would probably be down to not being able to make it stick. Shasta discounts Agan, and nearly discounts sally.

Legate - looks at Lommy. Thinks she probably had a wolf on her suspect list somewhere to have bothered being killed. Suspicion of Nog and possibly Shasta.

Menel - intends to look at the G55 bandwagon. Hmm now Menel suspects Nog and sally. Very unlikely then to be a Nog, sally, Menel trio. But two of the three is possible. Don't know what Menel is like as a wolf. Brave enough for this? Or following the lead of a brave Nog or a nihilistic sally? Argues he wouldn't follow a Nog-wolf lead. Then point out he mentioned sally too.

Day 4:
Nog - states it was actually Legate who was suggesting people other than sally. Well so was he.
Legate - thinks Nog could have voted to save sally if they were packmates. I think this is pretty unlikely. With everyone going for her why bother?
Menel - suggests Legate is a wolf who voted too early so the wolves couldn't create a bandwagon. This was mentioned elsewhere yesterDay. States Nerwen, Legate and Kath are the wolves. Well, I am not, but I'd be willing to go with the other two names at the moment.

Votes:
Day 1: Menel --> Inzil; Shasta --> G55; Nog --> Pitch; Legate --> G55 (crossed with Nog)
Day 2: Menel --> G55; Legate --> G55; Shasta --> G55 (crossed with Legate); Nog --> G55; Nerwen --> G55 (crossed with Nog)
Day 3: Legate --> Nog; Nog --> sally; Shasta --> sally (crossed with Nog); Nerwen --> sally

Posting this, coming back with quick thoughts and vote.

[Kath]

Silent in-flipping-deed. :rolleyes:

[Kath]

Yep, I'm happy with the idea that Legate voted early for someone who the wolves couldn't then get a bandwagon going on (Nog). Thus sally had to be sacrificed to avoid suspicion.

++LEGATE

[Nogrod]

Hmm... I took clearly a too big a task for myself and the time is running (about 2 AM now as I write this first sentence), but I went back to read yesterDay picking up every suspicion voiced and towards the end of the Day the "defences" as well (not that there were many). And yes the picture blurs a bit.

Interestingly it seemes Shasta was the most active person talking against lynching Sally, especially after I "dared" the wolves suggesting we lynch Sally (#223).

But he was also suggesting Legate might be more suspicious (even though he already backtracked that in the same post saying we should not spread the votes any more - which is reasonable and a good idea in a situation where three people already had votes).

Also Nerwen had an interesting point about Shasta and Legate not being keen to lynch G55 before Sally came in as an alternative - which is a point we should check. I mean if that is true, then it looks bad for Shasta.

I still think our best bet toDay is Legate as there are so many questionmarks there with the others; like that an innocent Shasta might have said what he did just being indecisive, or that Nerwen might have been just a very subtle wolf I know she is cabable of, or that Menel after all, with a theory built to pick a predetermined person fails to acknowledge that it actually fitted a (now) known wolf as well...

But well, that all is very indecisive as now. If I have energy, I try to make a kind of summa of my notes from yesterDay, if not, then I'll be back tomorrow aka on the second half of the Day.

[Nerwen]

Hmm... I took clearly a too big a task for myself and the time is running (about 2 AM now as I write this first sentence), but I went back to read yesterDay picking up every suspicion voiced and towards the end of the Day the "defences" as well (not that there were many). And yes the picture blurs a bit.

Interestingly it seemes Shasta was the most active person talking against lynching Sally, especially after I "dared" the wolves suggesting we lynch Sally (#223).
I'll say this: I held my vote so long waiting for my heart to come back and tell us what this "something" was– then realised time had run out.

But he was also suggesting Legate might be more suspicious (even though he already backtracked that in the same post saying we should not spread the votes any more - which is reasonable and a good idea in a situation where three people already had votes).

Also Nerwen had an interesting point about Shasta and Legate not being keen to lynch G55 before Sally came in as an alternative - which is a point we should check. I mean if that is true, then it looks bad for Shasta.
I checked– not as much of that as I'd thought.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Been checking the thread sporadically from my phone. I'll make a decent post later when I'm at my computer, but I noticed a luminescent gleam mentioning my behavior at the end of yesterday, so I thought I'd clarify that, in my paranoia, I was momentarily convinced that Sally was hinting at being the Ranger. That sane paranoia was also sure that Agan was a wolf that had spent the early part of the game posing as the cobbler. :rolleyes:

[Nogrod]

I checked– not as much of that as I'd thought.That would be exactly what I would have said. :)

I decided to go and check through D2 for that as it felt important (more important than my notes on yesterDay which I can still type tomorrow aka later toDay if it feels like something that helps).

Now both Legate and Shasta voted G55 on D1.

ON D2 they both are quite ambiguos about her, more suspecting than not (there's a clear difference on that Legate discusses her over and over again ending up in that limbo while Shasta posted very little on D2 in general).

An interesting exchange happens between Lommy and Legate when Lommy notes to him that if G55 is a wolf not only me (whom Legate had concentrated) but also Sally could be a wolf. Legate accepts it as "theoretically" possible (how nice) but thinks it so much speculation it would be better revealed with G55's role...

After I (and few others) started pushing for Sally to be a candidate, Legate says he's not willing to jump into Sallywagon.

I pressed on my #159 & #160 (15 to 10 minutes before the DL) for a pick between the two believing they were both wolves (votes then G55/3, Sally/2)... and Legate and Shasta voted, at the same minute (five minutes before the DL) making it 5 vs. 2 and thus basically nailing it down.

So the two nailed it, to be honest. But what does it tell us? Or does it tell anything?

Well it strengthens my belief in Legate being a wolf (the answer to Lommy mentioned above!). But with Shasta it leaves me quite out in the open still

[Nerwen]

I hope to go through yesterDay in regards Shasta & Nerwen to look at ther reactions to Sally getting nearer the gallows, but was it Menel, the riddle of why Sally was left alone to die would have been solved.
Nope. At least one innocent would've had to vote for you, Nog. Even if Nerwen (or Shasta) is a wolf, they couldn't very well just give you a vote and wait for the other (or Menel) to follow suit. There was no chance they could've saved sally, what with the general opinion leaning towards lynching her rather than you.
Look at the timing of the last votes: Sally nearly was saved, and Nogrod lynched by default (though I doubt that could have been planned). And I would say Sally must have had hopes of turning the vote away from herself, even at the last. What I mean is, I don't think the outcome of yesterDay's lynch was quite as certain beforehand as you think.

Nog brought up a good point about Kath. Yes obviously if she was a wolf, she would've voted for Nogrod with Legate instead of me. Shasta looks relatively good, especially after yesterday. Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him), plus I have a hard time seeing Legate defending a fellow so outrageously obviously. Method of elimination (plus the points I mentioned earlier) leave Nerwen as the remaining wolf.
Agan, you know I hate to use "if I were a wolf" reasoning... but I suppose there's a time and a place for everything. For what it's worth, then: if I were a wolf, I believe I'd have thrown Sally under a bus a lot quicker than I did.

More to the point– since, as it happens, I'm not a wolf :p , I know you must have wrongly eliminated someone from your list of possibilities.

Now, it seems likely enough the wolves knew that they would not be able to count on each other being around in time to secure the vote. If both Legate and Kath are wolves, and both *had* to vote early, the latter may not have *dared* follow the former's vote, for fear of the village catching on– which might well have done for them. Do you see what I'm saying? I don't know if that was the case, of course– but I don't think it's safe simply to rule Kath out yet, anyway.

Then, Menel:
Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him)
If you mean at #257– well, I would say it's more that *he's* agreeing with *you*, Agan;). That has been Menel all game: he mostly just repeats other people's points.

EDIT:X'd with Nog.

[Meneltarmacil]

I'm going to have to reevaluate my suspicion of Nerwen now that I see that all but the first vote for Sally were cross-posted. Occurring within one minute of each other, in fact, which makes it highly improbable that she was lying about it being a cross-post.

Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are.

Which leaves us with Legate and Kath. Although I think only one of them's a wolf, or Kath probably wouldn't have voted for Legate so early today.

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, then. I'm voting for

++Legate of Amon Lanc

because of how defensive he was about Sally and the aforementioned voting patterns.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The wolves knew they could more or less nail it yesterDay so why not use the chance? There had been enough stated suspicions coming my way Kath could have easily picked up and voted with. Being forced to vote that early she could have gotten away with it...
Hmm. Had Kath been suspicious of you herself prior to that, though? I think I'll go back and check that.

I was ready to vote Legate already yesterDay and (unless something unpredictable happens or unforeseen arguments come forwards) and reading through Agan's analysis hasn't exactly weakend my stance on that.
Nothing really to say about this, other than that I agree. Particularly because there wasn't a four-man-pileup of votes later in the day.

Interestingly it seemes Shasta was the most active person talking against lynching Sally, especially after I "dared" the wolves suggesting we lynch Sally (#223).
It was at about that point my paranoia about Agan had started to kick in. It really took off after Sally made that post with those vague Ranger-hints. But at the very end I decided to go with my gut over last-minute worries.

and Legate and Shasta voted, at the same minute (five minutes before the DL) making it 5 vs. 2 and thus basically nailing it down.

So the two nailed it, to be honest. But what does it tell us? Or does it tell anything?

What pushed it over the edge for me, combined with what I'd thought D1, was that "slip" that it was pointed out G55 made. I thought, as frustrated as she'd been all day, she'd been frustrated right into blowing her cover.

If you mean at #257– well, I would say it's more that *he's* agreeing with *you*, Agan. That has been Menel all game: he mostly just repeats other people's points.

This, along with really concentrating on "influential" people and (it seems) completely discounting wolf-on-wolf as a tactic - which bothers me, because the only real pointer towards Menel's innocence seems to be the possibility that he was Inzil's first dream. It kind of seems like he's been coasting under that particular cloud for a while. I think I'll go look at him next.

Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are.

Which leaves us with Legate and Kath. Although I think only one of them's a wolf, or Kath probably wouldn't have voted for Legate so early today.
If you're only left with Legate and Kath, and think only one is a wolf... then where's the third wolf, Menel?

[Meneltarmacil]

If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Unless Kath and I are wolves together, and Legate's innocent. But if you think Legate really is innocent, why haven't his other attackers merited your suspicions?

As for the remaining wolf, assuming Legate is guilty, this was my logic:
Not Aganzir, she's the Ranger.
Not Kath or me, they voted for Legate.
Not Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen, as they got Sally lynched.

Obviously that would eliminate everybody, and so one of the following has to have happened:

A: Agan is lying about being the Ranger.
B: Kath or I decided to kill a fellow wolf for some reason.
C: Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen played wolf-on-wolf yesterday.

Since no Ranger came forward to dispute Agan's claim, we can eliminate A.

With one wolf down already, B would put the wolves in unnecessary danger. I would be inclined to point the finger at Kath if Agan and I have made a mistake and Legate turns out to be innocent, though.

C now looks like the most likely possibility. Sally would not have been lynched with only two votes, and the result of such a vote by a wolf (should Sally be lynched at some point) would lead to the wolf being trusted by the villagers. Unfortunately, the wolf cross-posted with a couple of innocents and lynched a packmate by mistake.

As for which of Nogrod, Shasta, and Nerwen is likely to be a wolf, I would not suspect Nogrod as Legate voted for him when he knew there were other strong anti-Nogrod sentiments.

So our wolf is probably Shasta or Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

Oh no. What if it's Kath and Menel!:eek: Look at his last post!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Unless Kath and I are wolves together, and Legate's innocent. But if you think Legate really is innocent, why haven't his other attackers merited your suspicions?


Hold it. I never "claimed you were the third wolf", I said I was going to look at you next. And I pretty clearly stated that I do find Legate suspicious, so obviously I don't "think Legate really is innocent."

You're also completely discounting Kath, based on her vote for Legate. Given the high amounts of suspicion Legate has gathered today, I'd say wolf-on-wolf is likelier than it was yesterday - and since your "most likely possibility" is that Nog, Nerwen, or I did it yesterday, why are you completely ignoring it today?

Edit: crossed with my dear one, as I left this up while going to get a drink. :rolleyes:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh no. What if it's Kath and Menel!:eek: Look at his last post!

For the remaining wolves to be Kath and Menel, Legate would have to be innocent. Personally, I'm much more suspicious of Legate than I am of Kath. I suppose it could be, though.

[Nerwen]

For the remaining wolves to be Kath and Menel, Legate would have to be innocent. Personally, I'm much more suspicious of Legate than I am of Kath. I suppose it could be, though.

No, you're probably right– I just freaked, rather, when I saw that last post.

But just from his recent posting, I'd say Menel stands a pretty good chance of being the third wolf.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

No, you're probably right– I just freaked, rather, when I saw that last post.

But just from his recent posting, I'd say Menel stands a pretty good chance of being the third wolf.

The problem I'm having with that is, what does Wolftarmacil gain by obviously discounting/trusting Kath, if Legate is a wolf?

[Nerwen]

The problem I'm having with that is, what does Wolftarmacil gain by obviously discounting/trusting Kath, if Legate is a wolf?
Well, to get her trust, I suppose... it's true this isn't the greatest time to use that kind of ploy, as it would leave him fewer options for the next Day– but then whatever Menel is, I don't think his naivete about tactics is necessarily an act.

[Meneltarmacil]

You're also completely discounting Kath, based on her vote for Legate. Given the high amounts of suspicion Legate has gathered today, I'd say wolf-on-wolf is likelier than it was yesterday - and since your "most likely possibility" is that Nog, Nerwen, or I did it yesterday, why are you completely ignoring it today?
Because wolf-on-wolf only works when voting for one's fellow wolf will create a favorable outcome. The wolves have already lost someone, and Legate is already under suspicion. It's one thing to vote for a fellow wolf when they're behind someone else by three votes and there are three wolves remaining. It's another situation entirely when there are only two wolves left and the village is quite likely to lynch one of your number.

[Nerwen]

And look at #271. A lupine "counting-slip"? You know what I mean: wolves sometimes accidentally subtract themselves from the total number of baddies left.

I don't say that's proof– innocents can make "wolf-slips" too– as we've seen all too recently– but it is another reason for Menel to be looking a lot worse to me all of a sudden.

EDIT:X'd with Menel.

[Nerwen]

Because wolf-on-wolf only works when voting for one's fellow wolf will create a favorable outcome. The wolves have already lost someone, and Legate is already under suspicion. It's one thing to vote for a fellow wolf when they're behind someone else by three votes and there are three wolves remaining. It's another situation entirely when there are only two wolves left and the village is quite likely to lynch one of your number.
...You can't be serious...

[Meneltarmacil]

...You can't be serious...

...What did I do?

[Meneltarmacil]

Okay, a wolf would certainly throw its packmate under the train if there were enough votes that said beast would have died anyway, but Legate only had two votes by the time I'd posted. That's really early to abandon Legate to the noose.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nerwen
...You can't be serious...
...What did I do?
Do you really mean you didn't know that voting a packmate already on the way to the gallows is part of the ABC of Wolf Tactics? And if you didn't, then on what grounds is it that you suspect me or Shasta?

EDIT:X'd with Menel.

[Nerwen]

Okay, a wolf would certainly throw its packmate under the train if there were enough votes that said beast would have died anyway, but Legate only had two votes by the time I'd posted. That's really early to abandon Legate to the noose.

And who else did you suppose was likely to be lynched toDay?

[Nerwen]

Okay, a wolf would certainly throw its packmate under the train if there were enough votes that said beast would have died anyway, but Legate only had two votes by the time I'd posted. That's really early to abandon Legate to the noose.

Besides– jumping on the bandwaggon when one's packmate has already received so many votes that he is *certain* to die... barely counts as a tactic at all, since it won't make you look the least bit more innocent. Again, do you really not know this?

[Meneltarmacil]

My apologies. I honestly cannot remember a wolf ever doing this.

Although I have been away from the site for three years, and there is probably a lot I have missed.

I suppose, then, that I will have to keep Kath as a possible wolf even if Legate is innocent.

[Nerwen]

My apologies. I honestly cannot remember a wolf ever doing this.

Although I have been away from the site for three years, and there is probably a lot I have missed.

I suppose, then, that I will have to keep Kath as a possible wolf even if Legate is innocent.
All right... I have no idea what to think about you now, Menel. Wolves were certainly doing what I described three years ago– but I don't think you were playing much then. And if you're a wolf, you've been in a pack with The Evil Cupcake + someone else at least equally experienced for several Nights– you'd think they'd have given you some lessons.

So that speaks against you being a baddie... but then there's the other things I've mentioned. I don't know...

[Meneltarmacil]

Three years ago, I got killed on Day 1 a lot.

[Nerwen]

Oh, and Menel, I'd appreciate an answer to my earlier question: if you didn't know this was a tactic, how is it that you thought Shasta or I might have been using it yesterDay?:confused:

EDIT:X'd with Menel.

[Meneltarmacil]

I figured that it was the very end of the day and bringing Sally's post count to two would not affect the outcome due to Nogrod already having two votes. It was down to the last few minutes before dawn and a three-way cross-post, so the wolf only thought it was contributing one vote.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Back and reading. Menel, what...? :eek:

[Nerwen]

I figured that it was the very end of the day and bringing Sally's post count to two would not affect the outcome due to Nogrod already having two votes. It was down to the last few minutes before dawn and a three-way cross-post, so the wolf only thought it was contributing one vote.
Actually, I had just seen Nog's vote when I posted mine, and thus thought I was casting the third vote on Sally– but that's rather beside the point. Are you saying that, in your eyes, this supposed solitary wolf would have been actually making a safe vote on Sally?

[Meneltarmacil]

Actually, I had just seen Nog's vote when I posted mine, and thus thought I was casting the third vote on Sally– but that's rather beside the point. Are you saying that, in your eyes, this supposed solitary wolf would have been actually making a safe vote on Sally?

Perhaps. Although, the way you put it, that would eliminate you and make Shasta the wolf.

[Aganzir]

Agan, you know I hate to use "if I were a wolf" reasoning... but I suppose there's a time and a place for everything. For what it's worth, then: if I were a wolf, I believe I'd have thrown Sally under a bus a lot quicker than I did.
I believe so too... but I'm not sure you would've been as quick to turn against me in wilwa's fairytale game when I made the slip you mentioned earlier if our victory had only been a question of the whole pack surviving through the day.

If you mean at #257– well, I would say it's more that *he's* agreeing with *you*, Agan;). That has been Menel all game: he mostly just repeats other people's points.
I'm only ever good at finding wolves when they start suspecting or disagreeing with me. ;)

If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?
Just pointing out that this looks like Menel knew Legate is a wolf. But then, slips are not always slips, and my gut is still more concerned about Nerwen.

[Aganzir]

Okay I'm going now. Goodbye, and good luck.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nerwen
Actually, I had just seen Nog's vote when I posted mine, and thus thought I was casting the third vote on Sally– but that's rather beside the point. Are you saying that, in your eyes, this supposed solitary wolf would have been actually making a safe vote on Sally?
Perhaps. Although, the way you put it, that would eliminate you and make Shasta the wolf.
The point I am making, Menel, is that even if there was wolf-on-wolf voting at the DL, it could not have been "safe" voting. Unless you think a Shastawolf was *sure* Nog wouldn't vote for Sally after all, or that I would vote for Nog... or... something...:confused:

[Meneltarmacil]

The point I am making, Menel, is that even if there was wolf-on-wolf voting at the DL, it could not have been "safe" voting. Unless you think a Shastawolf was *sure* Nog wouldn't vote for Sally after all, or that I would vote for Nog... or... something...:confused:

Umm... OK, I admit I had already written you off for voting that close to the deadline and had to think of the most likely possibility out of the alternatives I mentioned previously.

My brain has officially turned to mud now. I think I'm going to go to sleep before I start babbling insanities on this threaOOH LOOK BUNNIES*crash*

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Menel is mind-bogglingly confusing and it's gone nearly four in the morning. I'll re-read when I wake up.

++Legate

Edit: X'ed with the mindboggler himself.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil
If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?
Just pointing out that this looks like Menel knew Legate is a wolf.
It does, however he follows it with
Unless Kath and I are wolves together, and Legate's innocent. But if you think Legate really is innocent, why haven't his other attackers merited your suspicions?
Which looks bad enough in its own right, I think– but doesn't have quite the significance of that sentence taken by itself.

Still not liking Menel one bit, though...

EDIT:X'd with Menel and he who is more radiant than the sun

[Nerwen]

Anyway–
++Legate of Amon Lanc

Hopefully, he will sprout fur.

...If he doesn't after all, though, we're going to have re-think matters– I would be seriously considering my Menel + Kath theory, for a start (even if it did come out of a panic). Just a thought.

[Nogrod]

Well, I see no reason to not vote as well.

++ Legate

Hopefully, he will sprout fur.

...If he doesn't after all, though, we're going to have re-think mattersThat would be something I'd call an understatement... :)

But unlike Day2 when everyone just used their time discussing G55 and ended up lynching her, I think this Day has been much more productive in actually looking ahead in case Legate is a wolf (which to me is hard to believe he's not). But even like it is, we still have a lots of food for thought for toMorrow.

It really seems the absence of a wolf-wagon yesterDay is the key. So why didn't it happen, because the wolves were tactically inept, not bold enough to go for it, unable to do it (early voting), went for a more complicated way... :smokin:

[Nerwen]

It really seems the absence of a wolf-wagon yesterDay is the key. So why didn't it happen, because the wolves were tactically inept, not bold enough to go for it, unable to do it (early voting), went for a more complicated way... :smokin:

Well, the simplest explanation is that the remaining wolves are Legate (had to vote early) + Menel (lost in timezone limbo). At the time Legate voted, you, Nogrod, must have looked pretty lynchable.

However, we should consider other possibilities, certainly.

Legate + Kath

As I've said already, it could in fact be Legate + Kath, with both having to vote early, before any innocent, and Kath deciding following Legate's vote on Nog would be too much of a giveaway. Against this is– well, probably other things, too, but the one that occurs to me is the tone of Sally's vote-post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=671036&postcount=229), where she sounds like she thinks she has decent chance of surviving. Likely she was still expecting rescue at that time (13 minutes to DL). It is possible, though, that she was relying completely on her Ranger-hints to frighten off voters.

Menel + Kath
If Menel is a wolf, some of his statements toDay might fit his being Kath's packmate rather than Legate's, in which case the early-voter plus lost-in-time voter scenario would still apply. We must wonder though, why Kath did not follow Legate's vote, which, in this scenario, would then have been the desired innocent-on-innocent vote.

Shasta + ?
*shrugs* Well, my treasure might have decided that trying to rescue Sally at that point just wasn't worth the risk. While I am fairly satisfied now with his account of himself, it's true that some of his actions near the DL could be seen as stalling.

Nog + ?
Well, I suppose Nog versus Sally might really be one of those apparently insane wolf-on-wolf acts that can actually pay off in the end, just because after that nobody will ever believe the survivor can be furry.

Nerwen + ?
Sure. Like I'm going to make a case on myself.:p

Agan + ?
...All right, this is getting silly. ('Course if she turns up alive in the morning, that might be different.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, sorry for completely losing toDay, folks. On the good side, I am done with my exams for this term, so I can't really feel bad in any way now. The village still has a couple of Days before becoming totally doomed. In any case, it was nice to play, and I turned out to play a lot more, at least in the first two Days, than I had hoped to, so pretty good.

Since I am going to the gallows anyway, I think there is not much more for me to do. I can self-vote in order not to get modfired before I manage to get lynched or somesuch ;) And just in order to make it an unambiguous vote.

++Legate of Amon Lanc

Autographs only at the airport, please.

I wish y'all fun for the rest of the game... and I wish all luck to the side I am on. (So that I don't give away any spoilers.) I shall be following the game's progress with great interest.

[Nerwen]

Farewell, Legate. Whatever you are, thanks for being such a good sport about it all.:)

[Kitanna]

The morning began with cheers. The good ranger had bought them another day of survival. The celebrations were short-lived. Two fiends remained, it was their duty to preserve what was left of their village.

“Who voted Sally?” “Who defended Sally?” “Who ate all the cheese?” These questions bounced off the walls all day.

“It's Legate,” eventually became the rallying cry. The local bard was working with Sally.

Legate scratched his head. He knew better than to fight the tide. While his neighbors deliberated on just how to string him up he quietly slipped out the door. He had a chance of survival if he moved fast enough. Running as best he could against the snow, ice and wind Legate made his way to the Brandywine.

The white wolves were waiting on the far side. It dawned on Legate they hadn't been fed their nightly Hobbit yet. He did an about face and took off back toward the village. The wolves were much faster. The alpha male ran across the frozen river, jumped him and with the help of his mate they dragged Legate back. A small contract fell out of his pocket as he was taken away to be devoured.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf
Legate – Devoured by wolves on Day 4, Wolf

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Nerwen
Nogrod
Aganzir
Kath

[Kitanna]

Agan sat up, sharpening her sword. She had been lucky the night before, but she knew her luck couldn't last. She just waited.

It was after midnight and nothing had so much as sniffed at her door. She continued to wait. Somehow she dozed off and awoke to the sound of breaking glass. Gathering up her weapons Agan pulled on a cloak and went out to face her foe.

The wind kicked up the freshly fallen snow. Its bitter gusts cut through her clothing, but still she soldiered on. There were shapes in the darkness. She'd be a fool not to know that the final fiend had brought the wolves into town. Steeling herself for the worst she brought out her sword and ran for the moving shadows before her.

In the morning her cloak was found, ripped and bloody. The villages' only source of protection was gone.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf
Legate – Devoured by wolves on Day 4, Wolf
Aganzir – Walked out to meet her fate on Night 5, Ranger

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Nerwen
Nogrod
Kath

Day 5 Begins

[Nogrod]

Just popping in to state the obvious for now... :rolleyes:

So five people, one of them a wolf: 4-1.

That means we have two attempts to get it right (heh, I have played that three-player last Day poker for two or three times and have always being an innocent and ended up being on the losing side... so let's hope we can win it already toDay).

So let's keep all the possibilities open and try to suspect everyone. And none should take those suspicions personally or get annoyed / hurt because of them as what we need the least toDay is retaliatory action between innocents.

To me the situation looks kind of two-fold: either there is a lame-duck wolf (Kath or Menel) who was not able to try and save Sally, or then a sneaky one who thought trying to save her at the last moments would have been too risky (aka. Shasta or Nerwen).

I'll try to take a decent look of all those possibilities & re-read yesterDay later in the evening.

But it would be nice to hear from you others as well...


PS. I'm going to be helping my mom with the laundry tomorrow the few hours around the DL so I might not be able to concentrate any deeper into the game then, but I should be able to take part at some level.

[Kath]

I have no idea toDay. Nog, Shasta, Menel, Nerwen.

Day 4:
Nog - states no one tried to save sally and thought this was odd. Then responds to Agan's post about Legate possibly being a wolf who had to vote early. Says if Menel was the last wolf it would make sense that sally was left alone to die - I didn't follow this yesterDay. Can you explain further Nog? Says Shasta had both gone against sally and spoken of Legate as being suspicious - so perhaps not the third wolf.

Shasta - despite being pretty determined about Legate, suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves. Would like to see his opinion on this toDay now we know Legate is a wolf. Arguing more against Menel being a wolf. Points out we have slightly been assuming Menel innocent based on the feeling Inzil might have dreamt him.

Menel - thinks Nog and Shasta aren't wolves as their votes put sally in the lead. Thinks Nerwen's late vote for sally could be wolf-on-wolf - fair enough, weren't many options by that point. Votes Legate following the general reasoning of yesterDay. All these possibility/elimination posts are a bit off. He did seem to discount everyone but Legate at one point, leaving no third wolf. Then almost re-did it and came up with Nerwen and Shasta as other options. I mean, I agree, I just think it was oddly done. Votes Legate.

Nerwen - points out that sally nearly was saved and Nog nearly died instead. It was only the exact last minute votes of Shasta, Nog and Nerwen that stopped it and it seems they pretty much all cross posted. Was the rule that whoever hit the most votes first was lynched? Nog voting for sally to put them at a draw could have been an attempt to limit the damage from sally's POV the next day if both were wolves. Shasta and Nerwen's simply throwing a wolf under the bus because they believed the other innocent was going for sally. Asks if the last wolves are Kath and Menel, thus ignoring Legate. Can't believe this would be deliberate but might just not have thought about it. Takes back idea but thinks Menel could be the last wolf. A 'lupine counting slip' in 271 - well, potentially.

To me, Nerwen or Menel feel more likely. Menel is perhaps getting a little overwhelmed with last wolf duties. Legate wasn't around yesterDay to give any guidance or give Menel something to go with. I think Nerwen's sudden 'Menel and Kath' thing was a bit like her earlier Day's 'so and so is suspicious - go' thing. Poking for reaction and seeing whether she can run with it.

This is where I am right now. There is another hour before I have to vote. If anyone else could talk in the meantime that would be fab.

[Kath]

Seems that was a vain hope then.

++NERWEN

There felt to have been a bit of a forced push for a Menel-wagon, largely led by Nerwen and Shasta. I had seen more to worry me in Nerwen thus the vote.

[Nogrod]

Oh my... after a busy day I have spent the evening both watching football and writing Arda Cup match-ups - and totally forgotten about this. :(

Soo, we have the first vote (one out of five) already. And no one else posting but Kath thus far, and she is voting early again... Bad. (yes RL is nasty with some deadlines, but still)

I need to take at least some time now to try and give my two cents on this - even if the Arda Cup match I'm writing is in a really tight situation... :rolleyes:


Hoping to hear from you others as well!

[Nogrod]

Kath - probably isn't a wolf. For mainly two reasons.

First she didn't follow Legate's vote on me on D3 when she had a chance - and the wolves were so close to winning the game at that point that she should have tried it were she a wolf. Now I think it was Shasta who asked whether she had suspected me earlier aka. would that have been a too hard a turnaround from her to suddenly vote me. But I think there were enough reasons to vote me on D3 as I had been one of the leading forces lynching two innocents in a row: so I don't think it would have been too risky for her to say "Yeah, Nog looks so bad now that I'm going with him as I'm short on time"...

Secondly she voted Legate quite early (again) yesterDay, but there was already a vote on Legate by Agan and at least I had voiced suspicion on him. So if she is a wolf, she would have wilfully aided with the downfall of her only mate - and on that Day she had actually made a more or less full analysis of us people left in the game, so she could have picked any other line of reasoning if she needed to help her comrade and willing not to be left alone...


Menel - I do find quite suspicious. At times I'm kind of feeling he's just a bit out of touch (see his discussion with Nerwen yesterDay) but there are things making me suspect him - apart from the general suspicion he seems to gather now as he did then years ago...

First, him having time-zone changing problems when Sally was lynched would fit nicely into the question why was Sally not helped (or why Sally possibly looked forwards to someone saving her at the last minutes - as she didn't know about the problems Menel was having?), as he didn't vote at all on D3 when Sally was lynched.

Secondly this little quote from yesterDay spotted by Aganzir really makes all my radars go red (if she hit it right, I will bow to her for that, helping us from beyond the grave): If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?Just how on earth could anyone but a wolf-fellow of Legate say something like that?

Actually it looks so bad I'm almost ready to vote Menel now... (didn't know it when I started this post intending to make a few checks on all of you)

Well, I'll try to check Nerwen and Shasta for a few points I have in mind as well, but Menel looks pretty bad, I must say.

[Nogrod]

Shasta - I was a bit amazed by you talking about Sally's "ranger hints" which made you wawer... and I had hard time spotting it until I found this like now: Voted now. Sleeping now. Would be nice not to die now. That would be bad. Sleeping now.So was that it?

Well, to be straight I can understand it coming 10+ minutes from the DL, but anyway... you sound pretty jumpy if that was what alerted and confused you for real. At least I took it as a normal Sally-talk and more like a sign of guilt than an innocent role (wouldn't she have cried a lot louder if she was the ranger?). :)


Nerwen - I know you are the sneaky one if you need or want to, and I could persuade myself to think you saved me on D3 just to make yourself look better by lynching Sally at the last minute (when I had already given up and thought I was lynched a minute before the DL as I was then the first to gain the highest vote).

Also, Kath suggested you were trying to suggest Menel and Kath ignoring Legate yesterDay, but after checking that I find that was readable from your post, but perhaps not exactly to the point.

And it is hard for me to believe you were wilfully lynching your mates in crime two times in a row, especially as you had suspected me a lot from the very beginning and when the competition was between myself and Sally, it would have been easy for a lupine-Nerwen to vote me on that Day the wolves were so near victory...


So it leaves Menel as my top suspect toDay.

If we lynch him and he is not a wolf, then it requires some further thought and throwing away many of the premises I have now, but unless some extraordinary things or arguments come to light, I'd say Menel is our best bet.

[Meneltarmacil]

So far, I've viewed Nogrod as innocent and I have no reason to change my views on him.

Kath, I agree, probably isn't a wolf because of her helping to lynch both Sally and Legate.

That leaves Nerwen, Shasta, and yours truly.

I am not a wolf.

Nerwen and Shasta both voted for Legate and Sally, but only when both were beyond salvation. Nerwen was the last of the two to vote, but I don't know how much that signifies.

All in all, I'm pretty sure the last wolf is either Shasta or Nerwen, and I'm leaning more toward Nerwen.

[Nogrod]

All in all, I'm pretty sure the last wolf is either Shasta or Nerwen, and I'm leaning more toward Nerwen.Because of a reason X or because she has one vote already?

So why Nerwen over Shasta by you?

[Meneltarmacil]

Because of a reason X or because she has one vote already?

So why Nerwen over Shasta by you?

As mentioned above, she voted for Sally after having read your vote-post for her, unlike Shasta who was cross-posting instead. As the debate was mostly whether or not to vote for you or Sally, she was probably hoping to kick you off instead. Once votes were adding up for Sally with the deadline in sight, that's when she decided it was a lost cause.

Again, that's simply an expansion of why her having the last vote might make her slightly more suspicious, but not by much.

That said, I am also considering Shasta as the last wolf, especially for the way he jumped on "Galwolf" in the G55 bandwagon after the latter's "frustrated innocent" post started to sway some people.

[Nerwen]

#257. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=671076&postcount=257)
Nog and Shasta "don't look like wolves". Thinks I might still be, as Sally was "beyond saving" when I voted. Either Kath or Legate might be a wolf who voted too early.


#262. As for me, my major suspects at the moment are Nerwen, Legate, and Kath.


#271 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=671115&postcount=271) Menel has now re-thought his suspicion of me. Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are (because our votes crossed.) Menel now thinks either Legate or Kath is a wolf, but "only one of them". [To quote Shasta at #273, "Where's the third wolf, Menel?"]


#274 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=671122&postcount=274) Suddenly "our wolf is probably Shasta or Nerwen". This is because wolf-on-wolf voting at DL on Day 3 is "the most likely possibility". (Wolf-on-wolf voting Day 4 is, on the other paw, almost inconceivable, therefore Kath cannot be a wolf– and neither canMenel himself.)


[After some back-and-forth with Shasta and myself]
#289. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=671141&postcount=289) Kath is now a possible wolf again.


[After more dialogue with me]
#293 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=671146&postcount=293) Late Day 3 Sally voters are suspicious because "the wolf" must have thought Sally safe from lynching, anyway.


[After I pointed out that my vote crossed with Shasta's only.]
#296. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=671149&postcount=296)Still believes Sally was "safe" at DL, but "that would eliminate you and make Shasta the wolf".


After I argue that, whether there was wolf-on-wolf on not, it could not have been the "safe" voting he insists it was, he finally concedes:
#300 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=671157&postcount=300)
Umm... OK, I admit I had already written you off for voting that close to the deadline and had to think of the most likely possibility out of the alternatives I mentioned previously.

My brain has officially turned to mud now. I think I'm going to go to sleep before I start babbling insanities on this threaOOH LOOK BUNNIES*crash*

[Nerwen]

And toDay, as you see, I'm Menel's chief suspect again. For, as far as I can work out, the very reason he finally eliminated me from suspicion yesterDay. Amazing.:smokin:

[Nerwen]

Look, there's one thing I think I had best get out of my system now: Kath, I know it probably just reflects your being short of time, but in this, as in some other games, I find myself getting quite irritated and frustrated by your habit of forming opinions from what appears to be a very quick skim of the thread.


Nog - states no one tried to save sally and thought this was odd. Then responds to Agan's post about Legate possibly being a wolf who had to vote early. Says if Menel was the last wolf it would make sense that sally was left alone to die - I didn't follow this yesterDay. Can you explain further Nog? Says Shasta had both gone against sally and spoken of Legate as being suspicious - so perhaps not the third wolf.
Menel got confused about timezones the day Sally died, and didn't get back in time to vote. This is a key point.

Shasta - despite being pretty determined about Legate, suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves. Would like to see his opinion on this toDay now we know Legate is a wolf. Arguing more against Menel being a wolf. Points out we have slightly been assuming Menel innocent based on the feeling Inzil might have dreamt him.
Technically correct, but still a subtle misrepresentation: Shasta actually argued strongly *against* "Kath + Menel", and *for* Legate, and merely added "I suppose you might be right, though"


Menel - thinks Nog and Shasta aren't wolves as their votes put sally in the lead. Thinks Nerwen's late vote for sally could be wolf-on-wolf - fair enough, weren't many options by that point. Votes Legate following the general reasoning of yesterDay. All these possibility/elimination posts are a bit off. He did seem to discount everyone but Legate at one point, leaving no third wolf. Then almost re-did it and came up with Nerwen and Shasta as other options. I mean, I agree, I just think it was oddly done. Votes Legate.
Actually, by the end of yesterDay Menel had decided I must be innocent, and you and Shasta the only possible wolves.


Nerwen - points out that sally nearly was saved and Nog nearly died instead. It was only the exact last minute votes of Shasta, Nog and Nerwen that stopped it and it seems they pretty much all cross posted. Was the rule that whoever hit the most votes first was lynched? Nog voting for sally to put them at a draw could have been an attempt to limit the damage from sally's POV the next day if both were wolves. Shasta and Nerwen's simply throwing a wolf under the bus because they believed the other innocent was going for sally. Asks if the last wolves are Kath and Menel, thus ignoring Legate. Can't believe this would be deliberate but might just not have thought about it. Takes back idea but thinks Menel could be the last wolf. A 'lupine counting slip' in 271 - well, potentially.
About your points against me here: um, well you know what? A number of them are factually incorrect, in ways I already pointed out yesterDay. If I sound annoyed here, I am.

Do I think Kath is a wolf? Well, probably not– the arguments against that have been put so many times I don't think it's worth stating them again. But even from an innocent, this kind of thing is a potential aid to the evil side.

All right, I just had to get that off my chest.

EDIT: typo.

[Meneltarmacil]

When I made that statement yesterday about Kath, I had failed to consider her actions on the previous Day. In failing to start a wolfwagon with Legate, she's basically proven her innocence.

And Nerwen when I sad "That would make you innocent and Shasta the wolf," I was referring to a theory that I was finding increasingly tenuous.

Although, come to think of it, there is only one person who has remained on my suspect list throughout the Nerwen-Kath uncertainty: Shasta. Interesting...

[Nerwen]

So, I've been making my own analysis of Legwolf, from the point of view of finding links to his fellow. I got as far as the end of Day One, and even that is, as Legate himself would say, "a novel". Here it is:


Legate, Day One

#10. IC banter. Will not be able to post much due to exams.


#22. Speculates about the Cobbler, in response to Zil (#16) and Kath (#19).


#23. More on the Cobbler, in response to Agan (#20). Responds to Pitch (#21), who considers that Kath’s (still cobbler-related) question (#19) suspicious.
Hm, good spot. But then again, I think even innocents can speculate on theoretical basis - after all, what else is all this cobbler-pick debate about...
Makes a list, from which I extract his comments on the living:– not that I think there’s much to be gleaned there:
Shasta - exactly one of the no show folks
Menel - nothing special this far, I have no intention to get rid of him for no special reason when playing with him after such a long time
Nerwen - again, nothing there
Nogrod - I fear of seeing him posting at 5 AM, when I am no longer here...
Kath - ha, actually, I think I am sort of forming an opinion about her - which is most unusual, because normally I have no clue about her whatsoever! She seems in any case very active and interested, in fact, she was one of the main talkers this far... there is an air of genuine interest and activity about her, I'd say.


#40. Makes a couple of what he describes as “really brief” remarks. The first is on the “she-cobbler” affair– he find neither Agan nor G55 suspicious. Second is a response (of some length, actually) to Lommy’s (#34) and Nog’s (#35) suspecion of Menel.
More interestingly, what's up with Lommy and Nog suspecting Menel? I think he said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance. I just wonder if this is the thing I remember from ages ago, when Menel was playing and very often he ended up victim of some random accusation. I'd be wary of that, especially on Day 1.
Note: What Lommy actually said was that she found Menel suspicious “for some reason”, but would reserve judgement on him; at #31 she thought G55’s case on him “flimsy”. So this seems quite an over-reaction on Legate’s part, as far as Lommy is concerned.


#72. At some length, defends Menel against G55 (#52) and Nogrod (#49, #50). Again interprets (or re-interprets) several of Menel’s “Captain Obvious” statements, explaining what he thinks Menel *really meant*. Sample:
Originally Posted by Galadriel55
There's a difference between being sensible and being sensible and obvious. Saying "wolves are bad" is also a pretty logical and sensible thing. Where I'm getting at, is that I get what you're saying about Menel's posts being true and substancial, but I also get the other side of it, that they are what is to be understood without having to say it.
I think he was saying a sensible thing, I mean, if we dissect everything, then everything is already a known fact, one way or another. Nothing new under the sun. Yet saying "if we keep mislynching due to certain people leading the discussion, we should turn our eyes on them" is a reasonable thing to say, so why shouldn't he say it.

Meanwhile, Nog is “standing out”, his reaction to Pitch’s vote for him being “somewhat too jumpy”


#81. Considers whom to vote. Dismisses Nog as his later posts are “very moderate”. (Can only refer to #74, where Nog partly backs off Menel, and subsequent posts where he goes after G55 and Pitch instead). Pitch and Agan are somewhat suspect for “cobbler-talk” and Lommy for “Menel-waggoning” and “harshness”. But G55 is the “best pick”.


#84. Votes G55.


#86. Mildly disputes Nogrod’s point (#85) that G55 tends to be an easy target.


And… that’s pretty much Legate’s entire contibution to Day One: Counsel for The Defence in the Case of The Village vs Meneltelmacil. He is not the only one to take Menel’s side, of course, or to express suspicion of his attackers– cf. Zil, for example– but he devotes by far the greatest amount of time and energy to it. He brings out every point in Menel's favour, he expresses concern about Menel's (but not G55's) track record of being an easy lynch, he turns suspicion back on his attackers– he even, repeatedly, puts words in Menel’s mouth in order to make his statements look better! (I think he did that later on in the game as well.)

So, what is going on here? At face value, this looks quite damning for Menel– and, which I suppose is a paradox, it's about the only thing that's stopping me voting him right now. If they’re wolves together, this is stunningly unsubtle playing on Legwolf’s part- and he's about the last person of whom you'd expect such a thing. But then, what else could it be? Wolf-fawning-on-innocent? Using one as a cover for something else? Or is it just a double-bluff?

EDIT:X'd with the man himself. EDIT2: typo

[Meneltarmacil]

Excuse me, but Legate was openly defending somebody who is already attracting suspicion, right when most people consider him a wolf and are about to lynch him. In other words, he knew people would regard his words as wolfish lies and sought to make the village lynch me after his death.

At least, that's how I would regard him.

[Meneltarmacil]

Oh, you were speaking of Day One, not yesterday. I suppose I'm going to be lynched for that.

[Nerwen]

When I made that statement yesterday about Kath, I had failed to consider her actions on the previous Day. In failing to start a wolfwagon with Legate, she's basically proven her innocence.
And yet, you had all yesterDay to reach that conclusion, and were certainly perfectly aware of how and when she'd voted, because you mentioned it yourself...

And Nerwen when I sad "That would make you innocent and Shasta the wolf," I was referring to a theory that I was finding increasingly tenuous.
???And how does that logically justify your re-instating me as "top suspect"?

Although, come to think of it, there is only one person who has remained on my suspect list throughout the Nerwen-Kath uncertainty: Shasta. Interesting...
Very interesting...:rolleyes:

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[Meneltarmacil]

Nerwen, considering there is really nothing more I can do that will convince you I'm not a werewolf, all I can really say is this.

I am innocent. If you lynch me and find that out the hard way, your crusade against me today will probably put you in the noose tomorrow.

Also, I notice it has been largely Nerwen making the attacks against me while Shasta hides out in her shadow and supports her from time to time. If there is a Menel-lynch today, Nerwen becomes top suspect tomorrow, and Shasta, due to more limited anti-Menel participation, will be left behind to lick his wolfish chops as the village continues toward its doom.

Just a thought.

[Nerwen]

Nerwen, considering there is really nothing more I can do that will convince you I'm not a werewolf, all I can really say is this.

I am innocent. If you lynch me and find that out the hard way, your crusade against me today will probably put you in the noose tomorrow.

Also, I notice it has been largely Nerwen making the attacks against me while Shasta hides out in her shadow and supports her from time to time. If there is a Menel-lynch today, Nerwen becomes top suspect tomorrow, and Shasta, due to more limited anti-Menel participation, will be left behind to lick his wolfish chops as the village continues toward its doom.

Just a thought.
*sigh* I don't *want* to lynch you if you're innocent, Menel. Did you not see my reservations after the Legalysis? On the other hand, I don't see how responding to your extremely ill-reasoned and seemingly opportunistic "case" on me constitutes a "crusade", nor why it would necessarily put me in the noose tomorrow, should you turn out innocent. (In case you hadn't noticed, Nogrod had all but decided to lynch you toDay, before I ever posted.) Also, how is it that you're suddenly convinced of my innocence?

Look, can you actually make a case against anyone else, Menel? A real one, I mean?

[Meneltarmacil]

*sigh* I don't *want* to lynch you if you're innocent, Menel. Did you not see my reservations after the Legalysis? On the other hand, I don't see how responding to your extremely ill-reasoned and seemingly opportunistic "case" on me constitutes a "crusade", nor why it would necessarily put me in the noose tomorrow, should you turn out innocent. (In case you hadn't noticed, Nogrod had all but decided to lynch you toDay, before I ever posted.) Also, how is it that you're suddenly convinced of my innocence?

Look, can you actually make a case against anyone else, Menel? A real one, I mean?

Constantly prodding me about a couple statements I made (the first of which was more of a "if my previous, ill-played theory was true") is more than just responding. I don't remember any one person grilling G55 so much about her "galwolf" comment, for instance.

And in any case, it's not just you I'm suspicious of. As I've mentioned all Day, both you and Shasta are under suspicion, and I'm beginning to think Shasta might get my vote today considering what I've said above. As for Nogrod, Shastawolf wouldn't really care whether you or Nogrod gets lynched tomorrow as long as it isn't him, which leads me to think he's going to kill Kath tonight.

[Meneltarmacil]

As for why I'm "suddenly convinced of your innocence" as you put it, I'm not. It just occurred to me that a wolf wouldn't attack an innocent this much if there was a good chance that innocent would get lynched. That would put the wolf under a lot of uncomfortable scrutiny the next Day.

Somebody who's quietly but consistently supporting an misguided innocent, though? That's another story.

[Meneltarmacil]

I think I've said my piece for now. I'm going to vote for

++Shastanis Althreduin

even though it probably won't do any good because I'll be lynched anyway.

When tomorrow comes and there are only three left, remember everything I have said here. Shasta will probably leave one of my outspoken critics alive and try to convince whoever he didn't eat to lynch the critic for lynching me. Don't believe him. Hang his furry hide out to dry.

[Nerwen]

Constantly prodding me about a couple statements I made (the first of which was more of a "if my previous, ill-played theory was true") is more than just responding. I don't remember any one person grilling G55 so much about her "galwolf" comment, for instance.

And in any case, it's not just you I'm suspicious of. As I've mentioned all Day, both you and Shasta are under suspicion, and I'm beginning to think Shasta might get my vote today considering what I've said above. As for Nogrod, Shastawolf wouldn't really care whether you or Nogrod gets lynched tomorrow as long as it isn't him, which leads me to think he's going to kill Kath tonight.
I am "prodding" you for a satisfactory answer to the points I've raised. That is all, Menel! Do you think I'd treat anyone else differently?

For the record, I have given scenarios already whereby the wolf could, theoretically, be any of the other players. None of them are at all likely, but then, if it's not you, we must, by definition, be dealing with a skilled and experienced villain who has covered his or her tracks very carefully– and are thus in for a particularly tricky endgame.

Very well, then: why has Shasta now replaced me at the top of your list? This is an honest question. To put it bluntly, Menel, you've whirled from suspicion to suspicion so often, and given so many often contradictory reasons for them, that you're starting to make me postively dizzy!

EDIT:X'd with 2 Menels.

[Nerwen]

Nerwen, considering there is really nothing more I can do that will convince you I'm not a werewolf, all I can really say is this.
Actually, there's plenty you could do. You just haven't been doing it.

[Nerwen]

Nog, Kath, Shasta–

I've barely played with Menel before. How likely is it that he would do all this as an innocent? I know he has a reputation for attracting suspicion, but that's about all I do know.

[Meneltarmacil]

Very well, then: why has Shasta now replaced me at the top of your list? This is an honest question. To put it bluntly, Menel, you've whirled from suspicion to suspicion so often, and given so many often contradictory reasons for them, that you're starting to make me postively dizzy!

EDIT:X'd with 2 Menels.

Because I don't think a wolf would be this fixated on bringing me down. That would attract unwanted attantion the next Day.

Shasta has been more careful and more quiet in his suspicion of me. Staying low and providing support to the loud, misguided innocents sends up red flags where I'm concerned. He could avoid a lynch more easily by claiming he wasn't the one to blame.

And with that, I think I'll be on my way. On a last note, I'm sorry if anyone has taken my defensiveness personally.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here, and appear to be the most convenient person for Menel to suspect, since Nerwen actually fought back. I'm going to need a few minutes to get through all this.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Shasta - despite being pretty determined about Legate, suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves. Would like to see his opinion on this toDay now we know Legate is a wolf. Arguing more against Menel being a wolf. Points out we have slightly been assuming Menel innocent based on the feeling Inzil might have dreamt him.
Nerwen has pretty much answered this for me, but yeah, I was pretty clear yesterday that I thought Legate a wolf, ergo the last two wolves couldn't be you and Menel.

Also, it's a little odd to me that your two candidates for wolvery are Nerwen and Menel... and then you vote Nerwen largely because she was suspicious of Menel.

Kath - probably isn't a wolf. For mainly two reasons.

First she didn't follow Legate's vote on me on D3 when she had a chance - and the wolves were so close to winning the game at that point that she should have tried it were she a wolf. Now I think it was Shasta who asked whether she had suspected me earlier aka. would that have been a too hard a turnaround from her to suddenly vote me. But I think there were enough reasons to vote me on D3 as I had been one of the leading forces lynching two innocents in a row: so I don't think it would have been too risky for her to say "Yeah, Nog looks so bad now that I'm going with him as I'm short on time"...

Secondly she voted Legate quite early (again) yesterDay, but there was already a vote on Legate by Agan and at least I had voiced suspicion on him. So if she is a wolf, she would have wilfully aided with the downfall of her only mate - and on that Day she had actually made a more or less full analysis of us people left in the game, so she could have picked any other line of reasoning if she needed to help her comrade and willing not to be left alone...
To me, these both seem like you're saying the same thing - "Kath isn't a wolf because I don't think she'd wolf-on-wolf as much as Kathwolf would have had to have done in this situation."

Why?

So was that it?

Well, to be straight I can understand it coming 10+ minutes from the DL, but anyway... you sound pretty jumpy if that was what alerted and confused you for real. At least I took it as a normal Sally-talk and more like a sign of guilt than an innocent role (wouldn't she have cried a lot louder if she was the ranger?)
Yes, that was it, and one of the reasons I eventually decided on her over Agan. And you're one to talk about me "wawering" (is that how they spell it in Finland? We spell it "waver" here.) when you said this:
Well Shasta, you have just made wawer a bit... as I just remembered that one of the things that made me suspect Sally the most was on D2 when she appeared to say she wishes to see G55 to simmer but not be lynched when she had just made her "wolf-slip" and when people acknowledged it she turned on her heels pretty fast.

Now wolves often are opportunists as well, but some of the weight of that suspicion clearly lightens when G55 turned out ordo...



I've decided not to quote Menel's every post, since Nerwen has already done most of that. I'll just talk about the ones that catch my eye. Like this one -
Kath, I agree, probably isn't a wolf because of her helping to lynch both Sally and Legate.

That leaves Nerwen, Shasta, and yours truly.

I am not a wolf.

Nerwen and Shasta both voted for Legate and Sally, but only when both were beyond salvation.
I'll grant you Sally wasn't a lock until the end of the day, when Nog and I crossvoted (which you yourself have mentioned before.) However, since that is what killed off Sallywolf, I'm afraid I don't see why that's suspicious.

As for Legate - realistically, with all the suspicion on him, and given that the vote on him was entirely unanimous, he was pretty clearly "beyond salvation" from the get-go. So by that standard, Kath's vote doesn't look that much better than anyone's.

Therefore, you're using the same reason to clear Kath as you are to paint Nerwen and myself as suspicious, and you're not allowed to do that.

That said, I am also considering Shasta as the last wolf, especially for the way he jumped on "Galwolf" in the G55 bandwagon after the latter's "frustrated innocent" post started to sway some people.
I'd been suspicious of G55 long before that. Granted, I was starting to think her more innocent because of how she was acting prior to the "slip", but I'd never been completely trusting of her.

In failing to start a wolfwagon with Legate, she's basically proven her innocence.
This is a point I've seen quite a bit, from both Nog and Nerwen as well. I personally don't buy it as an ironclad proof of her innocence. Wolves can have RL time constraints just as much as anyone else can, and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that a Kathwolf decided not to follow Legate's vote because of how they'd be linked later. It's not as if a lynch on anyone could have been assured as early in the day as they voted.

Also, I notice it has been largely Nerwen making the attacks against me while Shasta hides out in her shadow and supports her from time to time. If there is a Menel-lynch today, Nerwen becomes top suspect tomorrow, and Shasta, due to more limited anti-Menel participation, will be left behind to lick his wolfish chops as the village continues toward its doom.

You notice that because I haven't been here today, and my pearl has been. I'm more than happy to attack you now that I'm here, though, since I'm becoming more and more certain you're a wolf with no way out. :rolleyes:

Also, scrolling back up a second -

So, what is going on here? At face value, this looks quite damning for Menel– and, which I suppose is a paradox, it's about the only thing that's stopping me voting him right now. If they’re wolves together, this is stunningly unsubtle playing on Legwolf’s part- and he's about the last person of whom you'd expect such a thing. But then, what else could it be? Wolf-fawning-on-innocent? Using one as a cover for something else? Or is it just a double-bluff?
Given that Menel hasn't played in three years, I don't think it's too unsubtle for a Legwolf to try avoid a Menelwolf lynch on the first day. That's assuming Legate cares about his pack, though.

And in any case, it's not just you I'm suspicious of. As I've mentioned all Day, both you and Shasta are under suspicion, and I'm beginning to think Shasta might get my vote today considering what I've said above.
So, you're suspicious of me based entirely on the fact that Nerwen has been around more? Okay. :rolleyes: It looks to me more like you've decided I'm a better alternate lynch, since my darling one has been around defending herself from your attacks.

It just occurred to me that a wolf wouldn't attack an innocent this much if there was a good chance that innocent would get lynched. That would put the wolf under a lot of uncomfortable scrutiny the next Day.
It's incredibly hard to determine what a wolf would and would not do and be entirely certain of the answer. It's definitely not a good idea to be so iron-clad specific.

I've barely played with Menel before. How likely is it that he would do all this as an innocent? I know he has a reputation for attracting suspicion, but that's about all I do know.
I've probably played less with him than you have, and remember less. I remember Nog mentioning something earlier about Menel having a reputation for attracting suspicion, but that's about it.

Shasta has been more careful and more quiet in his suspicion of me.
I'll say this once more - there's a difference between being "careful and quiet" and simply not being here. You'll notice that I'm almost never here except during the latter half of the day - that's because I'm in a different timezone than most of the rest of you (definitely on the part of Nog, Nerwen, and [b]Kath[/b) - I generally don't even get here until the rest of them have gone to bed.


I think that's most of everything thus far.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Menel
In failing to start a wolfwagon with Legate, she's basically proven her innocence.
This is a point I've seen quite a bit, from both Nog and Nerwen as well. I personally don't buy it as an ironclad proof of her innocence. Wolves can have RL time constraints just as much as anyone else can, and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that a Kathwolf decided not to follow Legate's vote because of how they'd be linked later.
*coughing fit* Actually, my little turtledove, I believe I made that point myself already.:Merisu:


Originally Posted by Menel
Shasta has been more careful and more quiet in his suspicion of me.
I'll say this once more - there's a difference between being "careful and quiet" and simply not being here. You'll notice that I'm almost never here except during the latter half of the day - that's because I'm in a different timezone than most of the rest of you (definitely on the part of Nog, Nerwen, and [b]Kath[/b) - I generally don't even get here until the rest of them have gone to bed.

Well, I suppose he's talking about yesterDay, not toDay. Even so, this–
Somebody who's quietly but consistently supporting an misguided innocent, though? That's another story.
Shasta has been more careful and more quiet in his suspicion of me. Staying low and providing support to the loud, misguided innocents sends up red flags where I'm concerned. He could avoid a lynch more easily by claiming he wasn't the one to blame.
–while a good tactic in principle, doesn't seem to describe your actions yesterDay particularly well, either.

EDIT:added quote.

[Nerwen]

Oh! And it also doesn't fit at all well with Menel's previously displayed level of tactical knowledge, does it?

[Nerwen]

Also, it's a little odd to me that your two candidates for wolvery are Nerwen and Menel... and then you vote Nerwen largely because she was suspicious of Menel.

It's more than that– what she says in her vote-post is this:
There felt to have been a bit of a forced push for a Menel-wagon, largely led by Nerwen and Shasta. I had seen more to worry me in Nerwen thus the vote.

Which, to the best of my knowledge, bears absolutely no relation to what happened yesterDay. Well– that's Kath, though. When she's in a hurry, she'll quote and make analyses and all that, but quite frequently they seem to emanate from a slightly different plane of reality.:p I think she either skims, or just picks a random sample of posts to look at, or something. (Yes, I am still annoyed, Kath. Can't you tell?)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

*coughing fit* Actually, my little turtledove, I believe I made that point myself already.
Fair enough, sun in splendour. :Merisu:

Oh! And it also doesn't fit at all well with Menel's previously displayed level of tactical knowledge, does it?
You mean his tenuous grasp of wolf-on-wolf voting? Or something else?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

In any case, I work fairly early, so should probably be heading to bed soon. I'm feeling fairly good about Nog and Nerwen (as in, both Kath and Menel have raised more red flags recently than those two have) and so;

++Menel

Good night.

[Nogrod]

I only had time to skim through the posting since I left and will not probably have a second chance before the DL, so here it goes...

++ Meneltarmacil

Between the different scenarios it looks like the most promising one.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nerwen
Oh! And it also doesn't fit at all well with Menel's previously displayed level of tactical knowledge, does it?
You mean his tenuous grasp of wolf-on-wolf voting? Or something else?
That, and the general "Captain Obvious" statements.

Anyway. I have been looking through the other Days, and haven't seen any pressing reason *not* to lynch Menel now. Obviously, if he turns out innocent, I'll need to take a closer look toMorrow (assuming I'm still alive).

++Menel

There. Now you're dead. And if you're innocent after all– well, I'm sorry, but what can I say? You pretty much went and stuck your head in the noose toDay and yesterDay– I don't know how else to put it.

Note: As I go to post this, I see Nog just voted.

[Kitanna]

Menel had been considered innocent for too long. His luck had run out.

“Let's string him up by the river! Let the wolves see what we do to those who help them!” Shasta said.

“It's too cold,” Nerwen argued. “Let's throw him in an oven. The wolves can have a hot meal before we drive them back over the Brandywine.”

“What do you think Kath?” Nogrod turned to the woodsmith.

She held a bloody fork. Menel was at her feet writhing in pain. Her neighbors exchanged confused and worried expressions. “He made fun of my gammy leg,” was the answer Kath offered up.

“We may as well finish the job then."

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf
Legate – Devoured by wolves on Day 4, Wolf
Aganzir – Walked out to meet her fate on Night 5, Ranger
Menel – Forked over on Day 5, Ordo

The Living
Shasta
Nerwen
Nogrod
Kath

[Kitanna]

The retired barkeep woke from a chill. How had his home suddenly became so drafty? He pulled his robe on and padded out of the bedroom.

The door was open. So this was how it was going to be. “Show yourself! I've survived worse than you.” He snarled into the darkness. He closed the door. It provided him some sense of security, though he guessed his attacker was in the house already.

From the shadows stepped the final villagers to sign a pact with the wolves. “I should have known it'd be you. You'll not have me and I'll see to it you're strung up tomorrow.” Nogrod knew better. His spoken as though he'd actually see tomorrow.

With his attention focused to the front Nogrod missed the silent footfalls of padded and furred feet coming from behind. The alpha and his mate attacked from behind before Nogrod had the chance to respond.

He poked an eye here and kicked a ribcage there. Even in retirement he was a formidable Hobbit. He refused to go down without a fight. “Give it,” the fiend said. “You're embarrassing yourself.”

Nogrod had managed to punch the alpha in the face, distracting him, but the female had latched onto his leg. Blood coated her jaws. Even if he broke free he'd not make it very far with his injuries. Still, he wouldn't give in. He pulled his arm back to slap her muzzle. Her mate grabbed hold and gave him a shake before clamping down on his jugular.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf
Legate – Devoured by wolves on Day 4, Wolf
Aganzir – Walked out to meet her fate on Night 5, Ranger
Menel – Forked over on Day 5, Ordo
Nogrod – Distracted and mauled on Night 6, Ordo

The Living
Shasta
Nerwen
Kath

Day 6 Begins

[Nerwen]

Well, that's something I got right: I knew Kath would be alive regardless. Is it her, then, or has my jewel let her live, in hopes of profiting by her early voting + suspicion of me?

I'll have to think.

[Nerwen]

Back again.

I'd say it points more to Shasta, insofar as leaving Kath and me alive would definitely be a good move for a Shastawolf, whereas I'm not sure a Kathwolf would have wanted to eat Nogrod last Night. Or at least, she'd be in quite a dilemma, wouldn't she? He'd be unlikely to attract votes toDay– but also unlikely to vote *her*.

I'll not be voting yet of course.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Nog, hmm? A fairly logical choice, I suppose, considering the Legate/Sally combo of votes from a few days ago.

I suppose the question now is, who profits more from a Nog-death? Given the conversation and agreement about how Kath wasn't as clear as people thought she was, a Nerwolf would make sense.

On the other hand, it is the last day. Killing Nog would be a relatively bold ploy, to be sure, but if it is Kathwolf then it's working beautifully thus far, given what my heart has posted already. I just need to decide which is more likely.

[Kath]

Dilemma. Do I vote Nerwen because she was so rude yesterDay and decide in response that I won't actually bother even trying? Or do I put the limited amount of time I have into attempting to find a wolf? Really, really tempted to go with the former after reading the thread since I left. Right now wouldn't actually care if meant the villagers lost.

Therefore I'm taking an hour away.

[Kath]

Menel - three posts:
1) As for me, my major suspects at the moment are Nerwen, Legate, and Kath.

2) I'm going to have to reevaluate my suspicion of Nerwen now that I see that all but the first vote for Sally were cross-posted. Occurring within one minute of each other, in fact, which makes it highly improbable that she was lying about it being a cross-post.

Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are.

Which leaves us with Legate and Kath. Although I think only one of them's a wolf, or Kath probably wouldn't have voted for Legate so early today.

3) If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Unless Kath and I are wolves together, and Legate's innocent. But if you think Legate really is innocent, why haven't his other attackers merited your suspicions?

As for the remaining wolf, assuming Legate is guilty, this was my logic:
Not Aganzir, she's the Ranger.
Not Kath or me, they voted for Legate.
Not Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen, as they got Sally lynched.

Obviously that would eliminate everybody, and so one of the following has to have happened:

A: Agan is lying about being the Ranger.
B: Kath or I decided to kill a fellow wolf for some reason.
C: Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen played wolf-on-wolf yesterday.

Since no Ranger came forward to dispute Agan's claim, we can eliminate A.

With one wolf down already, B would put the wolves in unnecessary danger. I would be inclined to point the finger at Kath if Agan and I have made a mistake and Legate turns out to be innocent, though.

C now looks like the most likely possibility. Sally would not have been lynched with only two votes, and the result of such a vote by a wolf (should Sally be lynched at some point) would lead to the wolf being trusted by the villagers. Unfortunately, the wolf cross-posted with a couple of innocents and lynched a packmate by mistake.

As for which of Nogrod, Shasta, and Nerwen is likely to be a wolf, I would not suspect Nogrod as Legate voted for him when he knew there were other strong anti-Nogrod sentiments.

So our wolf is probably Shasta or Nerwen.

Tell me again how I misinterpreted that to end up with Menel first seeming to end up without any third wolf and then ended up with suspicion of Shasta and Nerwen.

Later he says:
My apologies. I honestly cannot remember a wolf ever doing this.

Although I have been away from the site for three years, and there is probably a lot I have missed.

I suppose, then, that I will have to keep Kath as a possible wolf even if Legate is innocent.

Perhaps. Although, the way you put it, that would eliminate you and make Shasta the wolf.

I had ignored these posts as they seemed entirely based on responses to supposition brought up by you. Menel was replying to possibilities rather than stating his actual suspicions. Perhaps less so with the first one but hey I know I'm innocent.

Shasta:
For the remaining wolves to be Kath and Menel, Legate would have to be innocent. Personally, I'm much more suspicious of Legate than I am of Kath. I suppose it could be, though.
--> suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves
(Emphasis mine. To me this is him suggesting you might be right. It isn't going 'Woah what? You're dead wrong missy' which would be suggesting you were wrong.)

The problem I'm having with that is, what does Wolftarmacil gain by obviously discounting/trusting Kath, if Legate is a wolf?
--> Arguing more against Menel being a wolf.

And I'm done defending. Just wanted to show you where my 'factually incorrect' information is coming from.

After that massive time-waste I'll go look at the actual thread now.

[Kath]

Yeah I will also learn how to quote posts properly one day too. :D

[Shastanis Althreduin]

After re-reading the thread, I found something of interest.

If the wolf is Kath, then Sally's vote the day she died doesn't make sense - she would have known that she was the last wolf voting, therefore she couldn't have expected any last-minute help to lynch Nogrod, so why would she vote him? This scenario makes more sense if Sally was hoping for some help from Nerwolf.

However, the counterpoint to that is, Nog was also one of the last to vote, and obviously wasn't going to vote himself - and was pretty obviously going to vote Sally - so on the surface it doesn't look like there was much point in Sally voting Nog either way. It's possible she was just going for the misdirection factor, though I don't know how likely it is she voted specifically to implicate Nerwen. Probably not too likely.

This game makes my head hurt. :(

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, this is a slow day. I have to go to work, but I'll be back in a few hours.

[Kath]

Shasta:
Day 1 - thinks it unlikely Menel would ask questions he could have got answered by wolf-mates during the Night. Thinks the wolves would benefit from keeping attention off the Cobbler - this was continuing the earlier debate. Was suspicious of Pitch for questioning the conversation around the Cobbler. Says G55 was the third to throw suspicion at Menel - well technically yes but as she cross posted with Nerwen they were joint second really and so equally pingy for that. Didn't like Agan's hypocritical attitude toward talking about the Cobbler. Wonders why Inzil wasn't hounded for captain obvious statements. Good point about voting Pitch despite saying his vote was reasonable. Bad point about backing off Menel - based on assumption entirely from Shasta.
Vote: G55

Day 2 - points out that sally blew G55's 'savage blow' comment into something much bigger. sally is in no danger at this point so a Shasta-wolf has nothing to lose by point this out. Thinks G55 looks innocent. Questions my stupid Pitch moment. You were following my train of thought I'm afraid - thought could be wolf buddies, then thought that it was unlikely because G55 had voted for him ... then realised he was dead ... Questions about Nog, Menel and Lommy. Suspicious of sally. This could begin a build up to later throwing sally to the lynch mob. At the end of the post before the list post he has G55 down as being innocent. In the next post he says after Nog catching the last slip she now looks suspicious. But there is no mention of cross posting and Nog had not posted in between. This is odd.
Vote: G55

Day 3 - points out that sally fits Menel's wolf description. Continuing build up of suspicion to avoid it himself? Good forward planning if so! Points out he voted for G55 the Day before as well so he actually had wanted to lynch G55. Points out that either Legate or Kath must have been a wolf for the wolves not to jump on an early vote. Correct as it turns out. Despite earlier point sally out himself is now reluctant to agree that she is suspicious given she has been around so little. Seriously stalled at the end. I know he gave an explanation but he pushed and pushed that deadline with 'ooh but wait' comments.
Vote: sally (cross-posting with Nog on the deadline)

Day 4 - explains that he'd suddenly thought sally was the Ranger. Suspicion of Menel as he may have been coasting under the radar and because he appeared to leave himself as the third wolf in his post.
Vote: Legate

Day 5 - thinks Menel is picking on him because he wasn't around to defend himself. Shasta says I can't be considered innocent just because I didn't follow Legate's vote. I entirely disagree here. Had I been a wolf and knew we could have won the game this Day I would have.
Vote: Menel (looks like I would have been second choice)

Nerwen:
Day 1 - second person who says Menel is stating the obvious but perhaps this is due to not having played in a while. Explains Agan's use of 'her' to G55. Points out to Inzil that G55 had cross posted with her - thus two consecutive complaints about Menel. Mentions Menel again, saying he repeated his statements and so got more attention for it than Inzil. Still questions G55's confusion about Agan.
No vote.

Day 2 - So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss. Not a fan of this comment as previously mentioned. Asks why G55 doesn't think the wolves saw Inzil as the Seer. Questions G55 a lot over a comment which looks fairly clear. G55 thought the wolves hadn't definitely determined that Inzil was the Seer, but rather thought he'd be a good kill who might happen to be the Seer. Catches G55 saying 'Galwolf'. This did look pretty damning at the time, though Nerwen is still leaving an out. Says Nog is high on her list of wolf suspects toDay - despite saying nothing about him since that first comment. Reluctantly says sally could be the Cobbler, or Lommy might be.
Vote: G55

Day 3: Can't figure out why we're 'doomed'. If a wolf ought to have a good grasp of the numbers so makes sense. Points out sally has misunderstood Nog. Didn't like Shasta or G55's 'remove the distraction' theory. I kind of agree but at the same time we'd have had another full Day of it if G55 hadn't been lynched. Questions Nog - without giving an opinion. Pooh-poohs Agan's sally suspicion. Defends herself against me. Now explains Nog suspicion - basically that he explained himself too many times. At the time, maybe, but Nog is particularly verbose and circular. Questions Menel for not thinking about wolf-on-wolf votes. Says Shasta, Legate and sally could be the wolves as they hadn't wanted to vote G55 until sally was an option. Totally spot on or giving two out of three?
Votes: sally (cross posted with Shasta - not Nog - knew she was lynching sally with this vote)

Day 4 - rescinds idea that Shasta hadn't wanted to vote G55, after Nog says he'll look at it. Points out the sally lynch wasn't a sure-fire thing. Says Legate being a wolf does not rule Kath out. Says Menel just repeats other people's points. Attacks Menel for not thinking about wolf-on-wolf votes.
Vote: Legate (with massive caveat)

Day 5 - dealt with all that jazz. Still opposes Menel's wolf-on-wolf/not wolf-on-wolf voting system thing. Wonders if Legate's massive defense of Menel makes him a wolf. No. I mean we know that now, but no anyway. Twisty turny Menel round in circles. He said he thought it was interesting that Shasta had remained suspicious to him the whole time, at this point only one person can be a wolf, he thinks then that it is Shasta, putting Nerwen in the clear. Why is this a problem to Nerwen? Aaah, am now understanding problems from yesterDay - didn't collate my end suspicions into 'not my brain' format. 'Largely led by Nerwen and Shasta' did not mean I thought both were wolves - indeed, how could they be? It should be been followed by 'and of the two I think Nerwen is the wolf doing this and Shasta less likely to be'.
Vote: Menel (again with the caveat)

Posting. Reading.

[Kath]

Nerwen has ripped into those lynchees who were innocent. Those who were wolves got off pretty lightly in comparison. G55 and Menel got hounded. sally and Legate didn't.

[Kath]

Don't like Shasta's wavering around sally at the last minute. Suddenly realised she could be saved but had to hold off other votes? Too risky really, and he'd shown no 'ready to vote' suspicion of Nog so couldn't go down that route. Would have been less suspicious really to have just voted and have done with it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Checking in from phone.

Kath, don't you think it's a little odd that I'd spend all that time being suspicious of Sally, as a wolf, only to turn around and try to save her at the last second? This is one of those "if I were a wolf" moments, but I like to think I wouldn't be that obvious. :p

[Nerwen]

Nerwen has ripped into those lynchees who were innocent. Those who were wolves got off pretty lightly in comparison. G55 and Menel got hounded. sally and Legate didn't.

I didn't "rip into" G55, in my opinion. I did "rip into" Menel– because he was behaving horribly suspiciously and couldn't give a decent account of himself– and I was the only one around for much of that time.

[Nerwen]

Oh, and "factually incorrect", Kath– well, for a start, that we all x-posted at the Day 3 deadline. I had already explained that this was not the case, and that therefore *as far as I knew*, I was casting the kill-vote on Sally.

I'm sorry if I was rude, but frankly I was getting quite fed-up by that kind of thing from you, Kath, and as I said I had to get it off my chest in the hope of not being prejudiced against you later on.

EDIT:word left out

[Nerwen]

If the wolf is Kath, then Sally's vote the day she died doesn't make sense - she would have known that she was the last wolf voting, therefore she couldn't have expected any last-minute help to lynch Nogrod, so why would she vote him? This scenario makes more sense if Sally was hoping for some help from Nerwolf.

However, the counterpoint to that is, Nog was also one of the last to vote, and obviously wasn't going to vote himself - and was pretty obviously going to vote Sally - so on the surface it doesn't look like there was much point in Sally voting Nog either way. It's possible she was just going for the misdirection factor, though I don't know how likely it is she voted specifically to implicate Nerwen. Probably not too likely.
Yes– Sally's last post makes more sense if there was a wolf left to vote– I've said that myself. But you see: from my point of view I can easily substitute "Shasta" for "Nerwen" in the above, can't I? Only if you're the last wolf, why would you throw the lynch like that? All you'd have had to do was follow Sally's vote on Nogrod– with the tiebreaker rule, that would have been almost certain death for him. After that, he could have been saved only if he and I had voted for Sally *and* Menel had turned up at the last minute and followed suit. But then, if you don't realise that now, my dearest, I don't suppose you realised that then...

Checking in from phone.

Kath, don't you think it's a little odd that I'd spend all that time being suspicious of Sally, as a wolf, only to turn around and try to save her at the last second? This is one of those "if I were a wolf" moments, but I like to think I wouldn't be that obvious. :p

Thing is, my heart– it's now clear that the wolves did *something* darned odd on Day 3.

Which is actually re-stating the puzzle we've had before us ever since: theoretically, the wolves could have won on Day 3, with a co-ordinated effort– but no such effort was made. Why not? Menel's being furry would have provided a simple answer– but we now know he wasn't.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Yes– Sally's last post makes more sense if there was a wolf left to vote– I've said that myself. But you see: from my point of view I can easily substitute "Shasta" for "Nerwen" in the above, can't I? Only if you're the last wolf, why would you throw the lynch like that? All you'd have had to do was follow Sally's vote on Nogrod– with the tiebreaker rule, that would have been almost certain death for him. After that, he could have been saved only if he and I had voted for Sally *and* Menel had turned up at the last minute and followed suit. But then, if you don't realise that now, my dearest, I don't suppose you realised that then...



Thing is, my heart– it's now clear that the wolves did *something* darned odd on Day 3.

Which is actually re-stating the puzzle we've had before us ever since: theoretically, the wolves could have won on Day 3, with a co-ordinated effort– but no such effort was made. Why not? Menel's being furry would have provided a simple answer– but we now know he wasn't.

Which is something I still disagree on with Kath -

Shasta says I can't be considered innocent just because I didn't follow Legate's vote. I entirely disagree here. Had I been a wolf and knew we could have won the game this Day I would have.

Much like things my pearl and I have said today, this is an 'if I were a wolf, this is how I'd act' statement. Which may be true, but isn't something provable.

I think I'm beginning to see the answer to that puzzle, though, bright shining moon. It may simply lie in the fact that the remaining wolf wasn't willing to link herself to Legate and Sally irreparably with a vote for Nogrod (obvious, I know - but no one could have foreseen the fact that Menel would forget to vote entirely.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

As for this -
Bad point about backing off Menel - based on assumption entirely from Shasta.
(regarding G55 backing off of Menel in her list, as far as I can tell - Kath wasn't clear)

Well, she did. The "assumption" I think you're talking about, Kath, is when I said "(because of the opposition?)" which is, rather, a possible reason for why G55, as a wolf, would have stopped going after Menel so hard. I don't see why that was a bad point.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, my reason for living, it pretty well appears that anything that could be said of a Shastawolf could also be said of a Nerwolf, at least regarding the end of Day 3. Considering that Nogrod wasn't going to vote for himself, after all.

Which is, of course, what you just got finished saying. Forgive me for restating the obvious. :rolleyes:

[Nerwen]

After re-reading: up till toDay, the person who makes the most sense as a wolf– or the least amount of nonsense, perhaps that would be better– is actually Kath, not Shasta. Once you stop seeing the placing of the Day 2 vote as a sign of innocence, and look at the vote itself, it doesn't appear so good after all:

So Lommy voted for Agan and sally. I'm tempted to go the same way. I feel like she was on to something. I haven't looked at sally and she's only just around while I'm disappearing. Therefore:

++AGAN

To recap: Lommy voted Agan on Day One. She was not attacked that Night. She voted Sally on Day Two. She was killed the following Night. Which one does that point to? (Hint: not Agan.)

Now, at that point, there was no telling who'd be lynched– but the next Day, a hypothetical Kathwolf would have returned to a quite nasty situation– one comrade dead, the other heavily suspected, herself the only one to have cast a vote for someone other than the known wolf, and the person she did vote revealed as the Ranger. I'd say some damage control would have been in order– and this in turn makes her case and early Day 4 Legate-vote look quite a bit less shiny.

So far, so good. Only– again, why on Earth would a Kathwolf have eaten Nogrod last Night– the one person convinced of her innocence? It would make sense to keep me alive, since she'd already got herself into a position where she could vote me toDay without raising any eyebrows– but why make things hard for herself by not eating Shasta? Whereas killing Nog and leaving Kath and me alive would make plenty of sense for a Shastawolf.

[Nerwen]

See, I honestly find myself struggling to control my irritation at some of the things Kath has said, like her continued misrepresentation of my posts ["reluctantly says Sally might be the cobbler", "pooh-poohs Agan's sally suspicion"], or her apparent obliviousness to the idea that anything she does could be considered suspect, even when she sees it that way in others [e.g. pursuing/voting G55]. And I've seen her hide behind the whole too-rushed-to-check-anything-must-fly persona as a wolf, so it doesn't really cut that much ice with me.

–And for just that reason I find myself wary of Shasta toDay. Because I am quite certain he knows I'm feeling this way, and knew it last Night, too...

[Kath]

'Cause sally hadn't been around that Day and as I had to vote so early my aim was to get people focusing on Lommy after I had to go.

Not saying I don't appear suspicious. I have made many mistakes, fine. It's the last Day. 2/3 of us are innocents. Why are we alive unless there was a chance of making a case against us?!

Nerwen:
It is true, though, that the Cobbler is probably to be found *somewhere* in the current mess. In fact I could even say Sally's behaviour might fit her being the Cobbler, unable to make up her mind if G55 is a wolf or not. –That's "might fit", mind you– I could perhaps say the same thing of Lommy, too.
'Might fit'. Repeated twice. = reluctance.

Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.
'Quite invalid suspicion' = pooh pooh's Agan's suspicion. Not 'points against sally', 'suspicion'.

This word misrepresentation - I do not think it means what you think it means. It may be that I term things differently, simple language use difference, but I'm not deliberately altering the meaning of your words.

I didn't want to vote last night because if I vote for the innocent the wolf is obviously going to piggyback straight on that vote. Didn't want to end up losing the game so early if that happened.

I've genuinely run out of time though. I go to work in fifteen minutes.

++NERWEN

I can't make a case for Shasta. Why would he have prevaricated around the deadline trying to save sally and then given in and voted for her? 'Cause the tactic didn't work - Nog and Nerwen held too long - and it was the less suspicious way out? It felt delaying but ...

Basically. Massive well done Shasta if it is you! You've been as slippery as a very slippery thing and if even innocent-all knowing-clean as the driven snow-Nerwen can't figure you out how is poor-stupid-thick as two short planks-Kath supposed to? If it's Nerwen. Good.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm not sure I even want to now, but I owe my teammates for this being the second game I've fed them to the village.

++Kath

I'll let my pearl decide, though.

[Nerwen]

Well, Kath, you voted for the innocent and the wolf– if it's not you– *is* going to piggyback straight onto it.

Therefore, I must hope that is *is* you, as otherwise the game is already lost.

Very well–

++Kath

Whichever of you is really the wolf has been very clever, anyway.

P.S., Kath, I said "misrepresentation", not "deliberate misrepresentation". There is a difference.

EDIT:X'd with Shasta.

[Nerwen]

So it was you, Shasta.

Oh well, at least I was the first to pick the correct wolf-line-up.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So it was you, Shasta.

Oh well, at least I was the first to pick the correct wolf-line-up.

You were. And you gave me an incredible fright when, two minutes after the day opened, you asked the one question I was so scared you were going to - "why Nog, if Kath?"

[Kitanna]

“Well Kath, this is it.” Shasta remarked. He'd found a rope in Inzil's storeroom and was knotting it while Nerwen tied Kath's hands together.

“You know I'm innocent!” Kath had originally struggled against them. She had done nothing wrong and they had no right to harm her. But her efforts were futile and she realized this. At least she'd be dead and wouldn't see what was left of the village fall into ruin.

Shasta threw the rope over a beam on the ceiling. He fiddled with the height for a few moments before he placed a chair under the noose, content with his work. “Bring her over, Nerwen.”

The two forced Kath to stand on the back of the chair. It was a balancing act, causing her to stand up on her toes. At least the awkwardness of it all wouldn't last long. Shasta and Nerwen kicked out the chair together. The drop was short and the jolt of the drop cracked the woodsmith's neck.

The body swung there. Silence fell over the bar. Uncomfortable, Nerwen approached the body of Kath. She searched her pockets. No contract.

“I suppose I'm screwed now.”

“Yes, I suppose you are,” Shasta responded. Outside the wolves bayed.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf
Legate – Devoured by wolves on Day 4, Wolf
Aganzir – Walked out to meet her fate on Night 5, Ranger
Menel – Forked over on Day 5, Ordo
Nogrod – Distracted and mauled on Night 6, Ordo
Kath – Hanged on Day 6, Ordo

The Living
Shasta - Survived to reign over the remaining foodstores, Wolf
Nerwen – Survived only to be betrayed, Ordo

[satansaloser2005]

That's my flaming wolf boy. <3

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

That's my flaming wolf boy. <3

I say! Wonderful performance, shasta, you managed to sneak your way through the remaining Days fairly enough without us.

I am so sorry for the very scattered performance of mine especially on the last Day I was playing, though maybe it was for the best. Sadly, there was no time for me to attempt to drown a few more ships along with mine :)

I have still enjoyed the first Days so much, especially, like I have already told her (and I should probably apologize for it once more), questioning G55 over and over again about the same stuff to the point of frustration, and I believe the famous slip of hers can be attributed to that. Yes, I know, not nice at all.

In any case, great job from my colleagues' part, it was lovely to play with you. As with everyone else. I must say, Nog, you were clinging to your life really nail and tooth, and I have to take hat off to you for making it that far. I was thinking you might be gone by Day 2 already. And of course, nice job from Agan. We were debating what you might be (Shasta thought you might be the Hunter posing as Cobbler until I pointed out to him that there is no Hunter in this game, but he managed to freak me out with that possibility for a second, too :) ), although I think my colleagues did not believe you were the Cobbler so much. I thought so on the first Day, but later I wasn't so sure anymore. The weirdest thing was we (or at least I) didn't think you might be a Ranger posing as Cobbler, somehow that didn't occur to me (I was operating under the logic "Ranger wants to stay quiet").

Lommy's death on Night 3 was, if I recall correctly, partially with the hope of her being a Ranger.

And before somebody asks, no, we did not really spot any Seer hints from Inzil as far as I know, but we just thought he might be a good target, and possibly a Seer. But, of course, the main reason was that our resident psychic just happened to randomly throw the name in. As it happens ;) We still had no idea what would happen after we decided the kill. It was a surprise, but a pleasant one, to quote one of my favourite scheming Galactic senators. It's funny, at the moment I saw Shasta listing Zil's name as a possibility for our Night kill, I felt like "hey! This looks like some psychic pick!" And so it was...

Last of all, thanks to Kitanna. It was really enjoyable game, a pity the Cobbler didn't work out so much, but then again, even though its abilites were not successfully utilised (or were they?) it was present at least "theoretically", in discussions, which was enough...

[Inziladun]

Wow, what a failure on my part. Looks like I managed to do just enough on Day 1 to get the wolves' attention, but not enough to keep Menel safe. Definitely not how I envisioned my debut as a Seer. :(

Menel was indeed my Night 1 dream, and Nog nailed the reason why: since I'd never played with him before, I saw him as more of an unknown than the rest.

Night 2 I went for Agan, learning of course that she was the Ranger. Going into Day 2 I was pondering how I would play it if the time came to reveal. That turned out to not be an issue. :rolleyes:

I was focused on avoiding my perennial hazard: getting lynched. Being Night-killed usually isn't something I have to worry about, especially early on.

I wasn't able to follow this very closely after my demise, but it appears to have been very well-played on the pack's part.

Thanks for the game, Kit, and for the opportunity to be Seer.

[Nerwen]

And before somebody asks, no, we did not really spot any Seer hints from Inzil as far as I know, but we just thought he might be a good target, and possibly a Seer. But, of course, the main reason was that our resident psychic just happened to randomly throw the name in.
We should have known. How does he *do* it?

[Galadriel55]

First and foremost, well done, wolves! You deserve it!

Shasta, that was :eek:. Just, WOW.

Legate, no worries. :-) Looking back at the Days when you were around more, your subtle pushes - and that they worked - were just scary.

sally: *sends cupcakes*

Agan, that was neat! I figured out on Night4 that you are either wolf or Ranger, and when I saw that there was a Ranger save I went "I knew it! Way to go Agan!"

A question to the wolves: I thought you would bluff and double-bluff with Agan. I was half-convinced that you would let her live and get her lynched for that (since she could only have 2 roles: Ranger or wolf). Were you afraid the village would ask for a counter-reveal before lynching the potential Ranger? Or that Agan would make another save while you twist and scheme around her?

Zil, it's not your fault Shasta was a wolf. :cool: You got the message about Menel across, so don't blame yourself that it didn't work in the end.

I wish I could say something on the cobbler role, other than that I wish it worked. :( Glirdy, did you get to do something on N1, though?

Nerwen - every game that we have played together (excluding the one that you modded, but that's not really playing) you were either a Ranger or a Wolf. This game broke the pattern. I'm glad it did - not at least I know how you play as ordo. :-)

Nog, I'm sorry about that. I think I'm somehow getting into this state of mind where I convince myself that you can't be innocent, and I try to prove it. I have to really stop it. The Day after my lynch I was fairly sure you were innocent, and I had a feeling you'd be killed on N6, but that was no use to the game as I was sound in my grave at that point.

Menel - it's a shame that your first game after the break went this way - that you were basically a proven innocent and you were still lynched. I think it is your playing style that irritates me and some others (and is an excuse for those with evil intentions) - one usually takes a peg and searches for a hole it can fit in to, but you pick a hole and look for a peg that might go in.


I think I'll kick myself a few times, or more than a few, now that the game is over.

Legate - makes me alert, but no red light yet. Can't really say where the ill-at-ease feeling is comming from.

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

Why is it the wrong suspicions that always stick?


Well, it was a good (and educational for me) game, well played everyone! And thanks Kit for modding and the awesome narrations! I loved them!

[Galadriel55]

A couple things I made a note to myself about:

G55's #143 takes the frustrated innocent vibe up to eleven - it's like she's Brinniel, combined with Rikae, with a little bit of Morsul thrown in.

Well, now I know my recipe. :p Except that I've never played with Brinn and Morsul, and both times I've played with Rikae she was Night-killed rather than lynched, so I don't actually know what Shasta means about my playing. xD

*waves to dead players reading the thread*

Well, Pitch, Zil, G55, Lommy, Glirdan–

I'm sure you've by now worked out that I, Shasta and Nog can't possibly be packmates.

*waves to Nerwen* Actually, at that point I was so paranoid that everyone was a packmate. :eek:

The worst thing about dying early is that I manage to come up with the best suspicions and observations after my death. :rolleyes:


ETA: unrepped people - it's coming.

[Nerwen]

A question to the wolves: I thought you would bluff and double-bluff with Agan. I was half-convinced that you would let her live and get her lynched for that (since she could only have 2 roles: Ranger or wolf). Were you afraid the village would ask for a counter-reveal before lynching the potential Ranger? Or that Agan would make another save while you twist and scheme around her?
They probably didn't think the village would fall for it– after all, why wouldn't the real Ranger have counter-revealed immediately, if Agan was a fake? (If you, being a gifted, wait too long before challenging a false reveal, usually everyone believes the monster and lynches you.)

[Meneltarmacil]

It was great to be back. Although it's really too bad that I didn't realize what was going on until it was too late.

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, now I know my recipe. :p Except that I've never played with Brinn and Morsul, and both times I've played with Rikae she was Night-killed rather than lynched, so I don't actually know what Shasta means about my playing. xD

I was the Seer once, and dreamed of Rikae. Upon finding out she was a wolf, I spent the next Day trying everything to get her lynched. She put on a very convincing "I'm just a frustrated innocent and Menel's being mean to me" routine.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

They probably didn't think the village would fall for it– after all, why wouldn't the real Ranger have counter-revealed immediately, if Agan was a fake? (If you, being a gifted, wait too long before challenging a false reveal, usually everyone believes the monster and lynches you.)

Except in certain cases. *coughBorocough*

And as for the Day 3 shenanigans - well, I've been screwed over by last-minute out-of-nowhere votes before (see - wintywinty), and with Menel not around anywhere to gauge, I felt it was too risky to vote Nog then.

[Kitanna]

I had hoped to write longer death narrations, but the day the game started was the day my co-worker decided she needed surgery and so I got extra stress piled on. Then of course when she deems she's healthy enough to come back the game ends. Oh well, no more excuses ;) I do hope you all enjoyed the short narrations.

I'm happy with the way this game turned out well. Congratulations to everyone for a game well played.

[Galadriel55]

I had hoped to write longer death narrations, but the day the game started was the day my co-worker decided she needed surgery and so I got extra stress piled on. Then of course when she deems she's healthy enough to come back the game ends. Oh well, no more excuses ;) I do hope you all enjoyed the short narrations.

They were wonderful! :) I hope you're not as stressed anymore, now that your co-worker is back...

[Meneltarmacil]

Menel - it's a shame that your first game after the break went this way - that you were basically a proven innocent and you were still lynched. I think it is your playing style that irritates me and some others (and is an excuse for those with evil intentions) - one usually takes a peg and searches for a hole it can fit in to, but you pick a hole and look for a peg that might go in.

My reasoning was this:

1. What would a wolf most likely be doing, given the current situation?

2. Is anyone doing that now? If so, lynch them.

Sorry if it seemed irritating, but that's the way I work best.

[Nerwen]

Ye-es... but Menel, if you pretty much only do that, it just seems you're trying to find "reasons" to suspect whoever is most convenient at the time– and to everyone else, of course, that looks a lot like "what a wolf would be doing, given the current situation". See?;)

[Galadriel55]

Sorry if it seemed irritating, but that's the way I work best.

You weren't irritating at all on a personal level, sorry if I sounded like that. You were more, like, irritating the wolfy radar. ;)

[Nerwen]

You weren't irritating at all on a personal level, sorry if I sounded like that. You were more, like, irritating the wolfy radar. ;)

"Pinging", surely? I don't think a radar can be irritated...

[Nogrod]

Kudos Shasta!

We were really bad (we=innocents) in the beginning, then we geared up only to lose at the last possible moment... But hey, that's the fun of the game, a rollercoaster-ride!

Lommy knew you were a wolf after she and Legate had dropped out of the game and when it was revealed I was killed she was here and asked whether I wanted to know the last wolf. I wanted to make a quess and went to and fro for a while ending up with you Shasta because of what I wrote in my post about you trying to systematically ignore and/or divert the Sally-lynch back there. So you were the only one I had "reasons" to suspect, others I just had bad hunches etc. :rolleyes:

Not that I would have been able to turn the tables on the last Day had you decided to kill someone else. Probably not... as I'm not sure I would have voted that way in the first place. Who knows.


But I do think this game strengthened - for a long while - the belief that you can actually reason the wolves out and that you can trust some others, at least partially or for the time being. And that is just, well, nice. :cool:

Thanks for especially Agan & Nerwen for a half-decent try for co-operation (and this is not intended as a joke) & sorry for Pitch & G55 for a really misguided start!

Thanks for Kitanna as well. It's so much more fun to play when you can trust the moddess to do her job punctually and give a nice scenario! It was sad your quite interesting cobbler-role was soo wasted. But these things happen (I know).

And thanks everyone for playing! It was fun once again!


PS. Extra thanks to Legate for forcing me into a playing-mode... :)

[Kitanna]

It was sad your quite interesting cobbler-role was soo wasted. But these things happen (I know).


Maybe if I ever have the chance to mod again the cobbler will have the chance to shine.

[Aganzir]

Thanks for the game everybody! I was out of town until today and only saw now how it ended, and I must say Shasta's being the last wolf took me by surprise. So yes, good job and congratulations!

Night 2 I went for Agan, learning of course that she was the Ranger. Going into Day 2 I was pondering how I would play it if the time came to reveal. That turned out to not be an issue.
That's such a pity. If you'd survived and found a way to get my attention, we could've done some wonderful in-thread plotting on the days to come!

But I do think this game strengthened - for a long while - the belief that you can actually reason the wolves out and that you can trust some others, at least partially or for the time being. And that is just, well, nice. :cool:
Definitely. It was an interesting experience, especially for someone who's so used to constantly second-guessing herself.

I don't think I've ever before had such a clear vision of somebody's guilt, but in this game, after a couple of days of being totally in the dark, I suddenly just knew sally and Legate had to be wolves. I was almost as equally convinced of Nerwen's guilt later, though...