Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[Galadriel55]

Could you please do it? Just one more time! Please?

I don’t want to, and it’s nothing new to you.

Please? Just once more!

Very well. Last time! Let’s go find something good.

In the last years of Numenor the King’s hatred for the Firstborn and the Valar grew black, and with it grew the hatred for the Elendili. King Ar-Pharazon –

Oh, this is boring, and you know it – I will skip to the interesting part.

Then, sensing that the time was right, Amandil the Faithful of the line of Elros bade all those still faithful to the Valar to gather in a deseted village not far from Romenna. He bade them to come in a guise, so that should they chance upon the King’s Men, they would not be discovered and their purpose revealed. Amandil believed that whilst there is still one voice to cry for the cause, hope is not lost.

So on the right day a crowd of people came to the village, and they spoke freely to each other, saying that somehow the King must be shown the wrong of his ways. But there were four men who spoke not but listened carefully. These were no Elendili, and with no invitation they followed the crowd to the village. Being fooled by their own guises, the Faithful took no heed, and thus revealed themselves to the King’s Men.


Night1 begins. KMs may PM, Elendil – send me your names.

ALIVE:
Morsul
Nerwen
Inzil
Lottie
Shasta
Manwe
PomPom
The Phantom
sally
Eomer
Boro
Steve
Brin

DEAD:

Don’t freak out and bombard me with PMs about the 4 KM. There are 3. You’ll find out everything soon enough.

[Galadriel55]

It was nearing night-time, so all the people settled down in the abandoned houses. Eventually, most sank into a deep sleep. Only four were still wandering about silently, thinking, pondering.

It was nearing dawn when the four men happened to come together at a crossroads in the middle of the village, and they recognized each other, and they spoke quietly of what to do.

“There is only one thing we can do,” said the first. “Are we not the King’s Men? Let us ride fast to Romenna and alert Ar-Pharazon of this gathering!”

“Nay,” said the second. “That way we shall only do harm. The Elendili will miss us before we deliver our news, and they will know that something is afoot. They will flee and scatter, and we know not who they really are. What is it to the King that they have met, if they cannot be caught? Nay. We shall destroy this rag-tag gathering from within. We shall single out one of them each night, and the one we choose shall never see the light of day again. We shall be bloody, bold, and resolute; we shall laugh to scorn the power of the Faithful, for none of them shall find out that there are King’s Men among them, for all their strength in numbers and tricks of the mind! And even if they do – what fools! They are wearing guises! They would not be able to recognize us amongst themselves. Today I heard them talking, and they said that none of them know exactly who and how many are to arrive. We shall triumph over them and stomp them into their own confusion!”

“Faithful...” spat the third, “We’ll show them how to be Faithful...to our King!”

But... was there really no way the King’s Men could be defeated? Was there really no hope?

Of course there was, silly. Otherwise they wouldn’t make such a long story out of it. Listen.

Yet the third man was dubious and hesitant to join his voice with his fellows.

“Do you really mean to kill them?” he finally said. “Kill them in their beds? They are disloyal to our King, and deserve a punishment. They should be hanged in the city square for all to see what happens to traitors. But to murder them? I will not...”

“If you will not be with us,” the first man interrupted, “then you are against us. You are too lily-livered to deal them their lot. But we are not so; we are not afraid to give a supporter of the Elendili what he deserves. And he deserves no better than they. We start tonight.”

The fourth man’s eyes widened. Before he could make a sound, he felt a dagger strike deep into his chest.

“The first one is done, then,” said the third man, wiping his dagger clean on the inside of his sleeve. “Who shall be next?”

“We do not have time. The sun will be rising in mere minutes and the folk will be coming out of their shelters. We ought to hide the body.”

But it was too late already. People were waking and peering outside. The most that the King’s Men could now do is pretend that they have just come out too and found the body lying there.

The crowd gathered around the dying man. Someone asked what evil is come to this place. Someone gently placed a pillow under his head. Someone brought a cup of water and cloth for bandaging. But it was to no avail. They could not save him.

The man started coughing. He was trying to say something. Everyone drew closer to hear his faint voice.

And what did he say? Did he say the truth?

Be quiet, and you’ll find out.

“Elendili...” they heard, “not all of you are so. Fear to be betrayed from within, for there are three King’s Men among you here. Do not take off your disguises, for that is all that they need to find a place for you in Ar Pharazon’s dungeons. Find them and destroy them before they destroy you!”

Everyone was dismayed. “Who are the men? Who are they?”

The dying man’s eyes groped around the circle of faces, looking for the guilty ones that only he knew, searching, searching, searching... He was dead before he completed a circle. Three men standing on the outer edge of the circle exchanged meaningful looks.

The people mourned and lamented, but they knew the dead man was right. They had to find the three traitors. They decided to vote every day and cast a vote, and the person with the most votes they would lynch. Through talk and careful investigation they were sure they would be able to identify the three traitors among them. And they did not lose any time on hesitation.

Day1 begins. KM, stop PMing. Villagers, post! Isildur, you may send in a name.

ALIVE:

Morsul
Nerwen
Inzil
Lottie
Shasta
Manwe
PomPom
The Phantom
sally
Eomer
Boro
Steve
Brin

DEAD:
G55, the hesitant King’s Man (modess) – stabbed on Night1

[Inziladun]

Ah, how Númenor has fallen from the ways of the Edain of old! Holding to rebellion against the West, and with violence forcing evil upon all, that in defense of our lives we must ourselves kill, the King's Men debase us in spirit as they seek to destroy us in body!
Nevertheless, care we must take, as much as we can, that we destroy not ourselves, doing the work of the King's Men for them.

*whew*

With IC done, let's go. Since I'm first posting, that makes me a baddie, it seems. Who wants to be second and third to round out the evil ones?

[the phantom]

Since I'm first posting, that makes me a baddie, it seems. Who wants to be second and third to round out the evil ones?
Yes indeed! I was just about to post-> "Does posting first mean I found the body first? Uh-oh" or something similar. :D

[Nerwen]

Ah, well, I'll have to be third, then.

[Morsul the Dark]

IC: Forsooth a comrade hath been slain.
Why why is our quest now in vain
are we all now in peral
I fear some of us are feral
tread lightly friends
I fear more death before this ends.

Moving along:

Does fourth make me the nonexistent CC?

We have 3King's Men right?

and 13 players? That means if we do really bad and don't catch any of them we have 7 day/nights. Not much time.

[the phantom]

Time to look at the roles...

KING'S MEN- A standard wolf-pack here, with the usual behaviors to look for and bluffs they can use.

AMANDIL- Essentially an Ordo with the added bonus of potentially being able to prove himself through a reveal. If the other Gifteds die quickly his "power" becomes rather useless, but early on it's a nice consolation if he's offed to know that some Ordo will know to trust some Gifted.

Frankly it makes me wonder if Amandil shouldn't just be super bold right from the start. I mean, that way we won't lynch him and if the baddies kill him they know that the result will be Elendil, Isildur, and Anarion surviving the night plus a random Ordo will know to trust one of them due to the death-power.

Thoughts from others on an extremely early Amandil reveal?

ELENDIL- Now this role is very interesting. He'll easily be able to find out what his dream recipient thinks of his dream target, but he won't know whether to trust the recipient as he very well could've handed information to a Baddie.

As far as ensuring that Elendil gets the opportunity to see what his dream-recipient thinks of his dream-target, that's relatively easy to set up- everyone simply say "these 3 are evil" and list 3 names. Elendil then looks at the names provided by the recipient and if his dream-target isn't there then the recipient is saying "they're good" and if they are there he's saying "they're evil".

This process can be repeated every day and right off hand I don't believe it would be particularly easy for the King's Men to trace the individual dreams or Elendil himself based on the lists, as the dream will originate from a different source every day and could be any of listed or unlisted names.

Thoughts on this plan? If no one can show that it would harm the village's chances I think we ought to agree to it as soon as possible, as it seems to be one of the few obvious constructive things we can do on Day 1.

ISILDUR- Now he has a straightforward and quite useful power- at a time of his choosing he can nullify the lynch! I think it's unlikely the power will be used early on unless he is defending himself or a dreamed-of Goodie if he's so lucky as to receive a dream. If he can stay alive to the point where reveals are made and suspicions are easier to come by etc. he could truly rescue the village from defeat. On the other hand if he's night-killed without using the power it'd be a total waste, so it's not as if he can say for certain that sitting on his power is best.

Or should he just bank on Day 1 being most likely an innocent and spare us the initial lynch right off the bat playing the percentages? Thoughts?

ANARION- The standard Ranger, here, except that there is a twice-per-game limit set on him. If not for that then the obvious percentage play on Night 2 would be self-protect, but if he survives the first couple days then still having a pair of self-protects in his pocket would be darn useful. This would also be another reason for an early Amandil reveal- with Anarion still alive the King's Men might feel a need to silence the trusted Amandil but they'd know the Ranger might be hovering over him. Thoughts on this?

[the phantom]

Well, I had hoped people would be around, but ah well... I'll check back in before I fall asleep at least.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Interesting point - a "super-early Amandil reveal" could give Elendil a public voice for his dreams, too, couldn't it?

[Nerwen]

What? Tp with a masterplan! Who'd a thunk?:rolleyes::p

Interesting point - a "super-early Amandil reveal" could give Elendil a public voice for his dreams, too, couldn't it?
Yes, that could work. And it might force the wolves to try and kill him, too, which would get rid of the main drawback to his revealing.

and 13 players? That means if we do really bad and don't catch any of them we have 7 day/nights. Not much time.
Actually that would be heaps of time– better than any village in WW history– but I think your calculations are a little out, there, Morsul.

[the phantom]

What? Tp with a masterplan! Who'd a thunk? :rolleyes: :p
Ever predictable Phantom....
a "super-early Amandil reveal" could give Elendil a public voice for his dreams, too, couldn't it?
Yes, that could work. And it might force the wolves to try and kill him, too, which would get rid of the main drawback to his revealing.
Ooo, now we're talking.

So- Amandil reveals, Anarion protects him, Elendil sends him a dream tonight, tomorrow Amandil reveals the result, then the night after the King's Men are forced to decide whether to kill him and hand an Ordo a trusted gifted and miss a chance to kill the other Gifteds....

Any drawbacks to that?

And how about my Elendil plan you two? Do you see any drawbacks to everyone randomly listing 3 "guilty" names each day thus providing Elendil a clear indication on whether his dream recipient found his dream target to be guilty?

To use the two of you as an example, Shasta is Elendil and selects Nerwen to dream of Phantom. She finds me to be innocent (but of course :D ). So the following day she (along with everyone else) posts a 3-name Elendil list- in her case let's say she posts Shasta-Inzil-Morsul.

So Elendil (Shasta) looks at her list and notices that his dream target (Phantom) is not on it, thus clearly indicating that- so long as Nerwen is not a lying baddie, Phantom is innocent.

There's no way the baddies could really spot anything under that system, correct? They certainly couldn't trace it to Elendil, but frankly I don't think they could even spot the dream recipient on a given day, as each person's guilt-list would randomly change every day and there would be bound to be countless correct answers on a given day.
Actually that would be heaps of time– better than any village in WW history– but I think your calculations are a little out, there, Morsul.
Yeah- if I'm not mistaken 3 consecutive incorrect lynches will pretty well kill us barring intervention from Gifteds. With the Ranger and a Healer out there though I'm thinking we'll have 4 chances to be wrong.

[the phantom]

Nighty-night, people. Hope to read your thoughts early tomorrow.

[Mänwe]

Good morning, ah looks as though a number of us haven't woken yet. Well if at the moment we're to be building a consensus on phantom's dream list then i'll not object, I don't see any drawbacks.

[Nerwen]

So- Amandil reveals, Anarion protects him, Elendil sends him a dream tonight, tomorrow Amandil reveals the result, then the night after the King's Men are forced to decide whether to kill him and hand an Ordo a trusted gifted and miss a chance to kill the other Gifteds....

Any drawbacks to that?
Well, it does effectively give the King's Men a free shot at anyone else toNight– but that probably doesn't matter much at this stage of the game.

And how about my Elendil plan you two? Do you see any drawbacks to everyone randomly listing 3 "guilty" names each day thus providing Elendil a clear indication on whether his dream recipient found his dream target to be guilty?

To use the two of you as an example, Shasta is Elendil and selects Nerwen to dream of Phantom. She finds me to be innocent (but of course ). So the following day she (along with everyone else) posts a 3-name Elendil list- in her case let's say she posts Shasta-Inzil-Morsul.

So Elendil (Shasta) looks at her list and notices that his dream target (Phantom) is not on it, thus clearly indicating that- so long as Nerwen is not a lying baddie, Phantom is innocent.

There's no way the baddies could really spot anything under that system, correct? They certainly couldn't trace it to Elendil, but frankly I don't think they could even spot the dream recipient on a given day, as each person's guilt-list would randomly change every day and there would be bound to be countless correct answers on a given day.
...unless hardly anybody posts that Day, in which case the dream-recipient would be left without cover– had you thought of that?

[Boromir88]

Amandil revealing, I think, would optimize his role. Since for all intents and purposes he's an ordo, but if he dies then the next in Amandil's line (at this point it would be Elendil) would be revealed to a randomly selected ordo.

The main difficulty is Elendil doesn't know if the person he selects to give the dream to each night is trustworthy. However, if Amandil were to reveal now, then it would set up a nice line of reveals that Elendil could trust.

Because going with the phantom's plan. If Amandil revealed today, and Anarion protects Amandil at night. Elendil could trust Amandil revealing the role of the person dreamed the next day. If it's a KM then perfect. But if it's not, say if Elendil picked someone who was revealed innocent to Amandil. Since the dream would go to Amandil, Elendil would know to trust it, and if the dream turns up innocent, then Elendil could send the next dream to that innocent, again knowing he could trust the result. And the process continues from there, setting up a way for Elendil to trust the information.

I like it.

As far as everyone making an "Elendil's list" (if the dreamed person is not on it = innocent. If dreamed person is on it = KM), I don't see much of a purpose. Perhaps it would be good today for everyone to do. Since only Elendil knows the person he picked and then to whom it would be revealed to. So then, Elendil will just have to decide whether to trust that person. However, if we go ahead with the Amandil reveal plan, then I don't see the benefit of continuing with everyone making an randomly generated "Elendil list." Since that, as I said above would set up a system that Elendil could trust completely.

It's not that I see any harm of it, but more of a hassle without any real benefit. I mean, I could see that I wouldn't be the only one who would turn Bombadil and in complete earnest just forget to make the list on some days. I suppose it would cover the tracks back to Elendil, but we'd already be setting up a track back to Elendil with Amandil revealing today and Elendil then sending Amandil the next person...right? The problem for the KM would be having a known and trusted innocent in Amandil, possibly Amandil giving another known and trusted innocent the next day (or a KM to lynch), as well as trying to find a way to break the chain, which as far as I can tell, could only be achieved by killing Elendil immediately.

I don't have anything against everyone doing it (it should be done today), but the question is would everyone remember to make the list for Elendil every day? And would someone necessarily be a KM if they forget? Seems like more of a hassle that could cause unintentional problems.

[Mänwe]

...unless hardly anybody posts that Day, in which case the dream-recipient would be left without cover– had you thought of that?

But people who don't post during the day run the risk of modfire no? I thought he'd be making the assumption that even if someone posts just the once then it should include this list.

~~

Boro, the point of tp's idea would be a way of communicating the role of the "dreamt" to Elendil without the "dreamer" and "dreamt" being given away too easily. This chain you speak of is fine in the event of Amandil revealing himself- and are you assuming that he then explicitly states the role of the "dreamt"? That makes that person an immediate target for the Kings Men and killing them (in the case that it was an innocent) off in the night would then break the chain resulting in Elendil having to make a stab in the dark as to who he chooses to send a dream to next.

[Morsul the Dark]

And how about my Elendil plan you two? Do you see any drawbacks to everyone randomly listing 3 "guilty" names each day thus providing Elendil a clear indication on whether his dream recipient found his dream target to be guilty?

To use the two of you as an example, Shasta is Elendil and selects Nerwen to dream of Phantom. She finds me to be innocent (but of course :D ). So the following day she (along with everyone else) posts a 3-name Elendil list- in her case let's say she posts Shasta-Inzil-Morsul.

So Elendil (Shasta) looks at her list and notices that his dream target (Phantom) is not on it, thus clearly indicating that- so long as Nerwen is not a lying baddie, Phantom is innocent.



Ok now I understand, I was immensely confused for a few posts, thanks for outlining that.

I think it's worth a shot. and if everyone posted a list it would hide the recipient. Clever, Clever.

and Nerwen I went with the worst possible scenario, I certainly hope we have more time! I'm off to work for now but I shall return in a while.

[Nerwen]

But people who don't post during the day run the risk of modfire no? I thought he'd be making the assumption that even if someone posts just the once then it should include this list.
Oh, I agree it all works in theory– but participation hasn't been great in recent games, and I can all too clearly imagine a scenario where half the village does those "no time to read the thread, must fly" posts.

Boro, the point of tp's idea would be a way of communicating the role of the "dreamt" to Elendil without the "dreamer" and "dreamt" being given away too easily. This chain you speak of is fine in the event of Amandil revealing himself- and are you assuming that he then explicitly states the role of the "dreamt"? That makes that person an immediate target for the Kings Men and killing them (in the case that it was an innocent) off in the night would then break the chain resulting in Elendil having to make a stab in the dark as to who he chooses to send a dream to next.
Yes– but we do have a Ranger. That's what they're for, after all.

EDIT:x'd with Morsul.

[Boromir88]

Well, it does effectively give the King's Men a free shot at anyone else toNight– but that probably doesn't matter much at this stage of the game.


Aye it would give the KM one free crack to kill Elendil and spoil the whole point of Amandil revealing. But with the chance to set up a system where Elendil can trust the dreams being relayed back to him, I think it would still be worth it.

If Amandil doesn't reveal it frees up Anarion to protect whoever, but it leaves Elendil with no basis of knowing if the people receiving the dreams can be trusted. Worst case scenario in the event of Elendil gets killed anyway is we're basically left with nothing.

If Amandil does reveal, and Elendil does go ahead sending the next dream to Amandil, Anarion would be pretty much obligated to protect Amandil and ensure the dream is "safe." This leaves the KM one free crack, and in worst case scenario they kill Elendil but we go to the next day having a trusted Amandil with one reliable dream. And in the event they don't get Elendil, then it sets up the system to get a chain of relaying trustworthy information back to Elendil.

Edit: crossed with Morsul and Nerwen

[Boromir88]

Boro, the point of tp's idea would be a way of communicating the role of the "dreamt" to Elendil without the "dreamer" and "dreamt" being given away too easily. This chain you speak of is fine in the event of Amandil revealing himself- and are you assuming that he then explicitly states the role of the "dreamt"? That makes that person an immediate target for the Kings Men and killing them (in the case that it was an innocent) off in the night would then break the chain resulting in Elendil having to make a stab in the dark as to who he chooses to send a dream to next.

Not necessarily. Still only Elendil and Amandil would know the person who was dreamed. Say Elendil chooses Brinn and sends it to the revealed Amandil. Only Elendil and Amandil would know it was Brinn. Amandil wouldn't have directly announce the next day "Brinn is innocent" to let Elendil know this. Amandil can disguise the result easily enough in his posts to let Elendil know the result and thus proceed from there. And as Nerwen pointed out, there's also the Ranger.

[Mänwe]

Oh, I agree it all works in theory– but participation hasn't been great in recent games, and I can all too clearly imagine a scenario where half the village does those "no time to read the thread, must fly" posts.


Yes– but we do have a Ranger. That's what they're for, after all.

EDIT:x'd with Morsul.

Ah well fair point, but if the purpose is merely to pick three random names- were it to be agree- i'm sure they could manage it in a "fly by post"..which leads me onto your next point about the Ranger as per Boro

Not necessarily. Still only Elendil and Amandil would know the person who was dreamed. Say Elendil chooses Brinn and sends it to the revealed Amandil. Only Elendil and Amandil would know it was Brinn. Amandil wouldn't have directly announce the next day "Brinn is innocent" to let Elendil know this. Amandil can disguise the result easily enough in his posts to let Elendil know the result and thus proceed from there. And as Nerwen pointed out, there's also the Ranger.

Hehe he might have just slipped my mind but yes true i'm sure it could be disguised its just with the Ranger not being able to save the same person twice in a row anyone outed would be dead the night after if the Kings Men so choose or could be eliminated in their hunt for the other special roles if they're prioritising.

I wondering can identities be passed on secretively and successfully or do they often become so cryptic the intended recipient is none the wiser? My point is though the list of three before night falls is still a good idea to continue.

[Inziladun]

Yes indeed! I was just about to post-> "Does posting first mean I found the body first? Uh-oh" or something similar. :D

Ah, well, I'll have to be third, then.

That's the spirit! Well, that's the game, then. ;)

Frankly it makes me wonder if Amandil shouldn't just be super bold right from the start. I mean, that way we won't lynch him and if the baddies kill him they know that the result will be Elendil, Isildur, and Anarion surviving the night plus a random Ordo will know to trust one of them due to the death-power.

Leave it to tp to induce a headache this early! :rolleyes:

Hm. I need to look it over carefully. The main issue I see is trusting the "revealed" Amandil. I think it's certainly something to consider, but ultimately it's Amandil's decision.

Still only Elendil and Amandil would know the person who was dreamed. Say Elendil chooses Brinn and sends it to the revealed Amandil. Only Elendil and Amandil would know it was Brinn. Amandil wouldn't have directly announce the next day "Brinn is innocent" to let Elendil know this. Amandil can disguise the result easily enough in his posts to let Elendil know the result and thus proceed from there. And as Nerwen pointed out, there's also the Ranger.

If Elendil can glean that information from Amandil's post, then presumably so could anyone else. Just something to keep in mind.

x/d with Mänwe

[Mänwe]

If Elendil can glean that information from Amandil's post, then presumably so could anyone else. Just something to keep in mind.
x/d with Mänwe

Yes, also what I was getting at.

[the phantom]

So, we're done on the Amandil issue then? Everyone agrees he can step forward? (We'll trust his reveal, Inzil, because what KM would fake reveal on Day 1 with a potential counter-reveal out there?)

Regarding the Elendil list, the main concern is that people's participation sucks? Ugh, that's really really annoying. It seems this game has changed since I last played...

Ah, well. If the rest of you don't mind, I'm going to do it anyway. At least that way if I happen to be selected as a recipient I'll have an established method for passing the info back. I suppose everyone else can do their own thing, so long as they believe it will work.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hey guys, how about those Elves, eh? I sure do appreciate those Elves. No question about that. :D

I am trying to work out how Phantom's plan could be used against the village, should he be evil. I don't think there is a way, and I'm inclined to agree with everything he said earlier.

But I need to think on it a bit more, because you can never fully trust a talented werewolver.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Should that be werewolfer? I think so.

[Boromir88]

Hm. I need to look it over carefully. The main issue I see is trusting the "revealed" Amandil. I think it's certainly something to consider, but ultimately it's Amandil's decision.

What tp said here, and why would a KM fake reveal when the only tradeoff is to possibly lynch Amandil? The fake could flop and lynch the KM, then everyone would know the real Amandil. In the event of the KM fake revealing and getting the real Amandil lynched, everyone knows one KM. Which would essentially leave 2 remaining KM to deal with Elendil, Isildur, and Anarion who are more powerful gifteds than Amandil. (No offense to Amandil). And the worst case scenario if the KM's fake reveal is successfu to lynching Amandil, then a random ordo will know learn who Elendil is.


Regarding the Elendil list, the main concern is that people's participation sucks? Ugh, that's really really annoying. It seems this game has changed since I last played...

Ah, well. If the rest of you don't mind, I'm going to do it anyway. At least that way if I happen to be selected as a recipient I'll have an established method for passing the info back. I suppose everyone else can do their own thing, so long as they believe it will work.

The problem is it requires everyone not only doing it, but remembering to do it every day. It adds another task to complete, and I could honestly see just forgetting to do it. And I don't want that to further lead anyone thinking "Oh Boro didn't create his list for Elendil, must be an obstinate KM." I'm fine with doing it myself, but I don't think it's necessary to have a hardline mandatory agreement to do it.

I will say, if we go forward with Amandil revealing (which ultimately will be up to Amandil now). Then the next day Amandil should do the "Guilty Elendil list," which should successfully transfer the dreamed of person to Elendil, and at the same time hide the dream from the KM. There isn't any further risk to Amandil, since he would be already revealed anyways. This making any sense?

[Pomegranate]

Not necessarily. Still only Elendil and Amandil would know the person who was dreamed. Say Elendil chooses Brinn and sends it to the revealed Amandil. Only Elendil and Amandil would know it was Brinn. Amandil wouldn't have directly announce the next day "Brinn is innocent" to let Elendil know this. Amandil can disguise the result easily enough in his posts to let Elendil know the result and thus proceed from there. And as Nerwen pointed out, there's also the Ranger.

Which means that, especially in the case of Amandil if not afterwards, Amandil could pretty explicitly just state "I dreamed of an innocent", since only Amandil and Elendil would know who's being thus labeled - no need for too much secret coding. Obviously the name of a KM can be shared. After Amandil the rest would need to be more concealed, and indeed the lists that tp suggested could come in handy. If we do want to keep them concealed - stating explicitly known innocents would indeed, as mentioned, put the KM in the situation where they either have to accept the amount of unknown roles getting smaller and smaller, as well as facing the threat of being found themselves, while hunting for Elendil; or keep killing the known innocents and know that nothing threats Elendil apart from lynch. If the innocents will stay known only to Elendil (and the current dreamer), there is the danger that when Elendil dies we are left with very little trustworthy information.

Regarding participation, it seems like there is more potential in this game than there has been in the past few. And anyone has time to put up a randomised list. If it would become a habit for everyone, I think it would also be harder to forget, as you'd keep seeing the lists in every post in the first part of the day.

I'd say yes to Amandil revealing. I'd also agree to lists today at the very least.

Just to confirm, there's no CC, right?

And just in case - if a KM decides to do a fake-reveal, Amandil, at least counter that! Otherwise we're stuck with a lot of problematicly full trust to a KM, and potentially to a chain of people after that.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Correct P, there is no CC.

[Inziladun]

What tp said here, and why would a KM fake reveal when the only tradeoff is to possibly lynch Amandil? The fake could flop and lynch the KM, then everyone would know the real Amandil. In the event of the KM fake revealing and getting the real Amandil lynched, everyone knows one KM. Which would essentially leave 2 remaining KM to deal with Elendil, Isildur, and Anarion who are more powerful gifteds than Amandil. (No offense to Amandil). And the worst case scenario if the KM's fake reveal is successfu to lynching Amandil, then a random ordo will know learn who Elendil is.

Well, I didn't say the possibility of a fake reveal should prevent the plan, it was just a thought I had.

The problem is it requires everyone not only doing it, but remembering to do it every day. It adds another task to complete, and I could honestly see just forgetting to do it. And I don't want that to further lead anyone thinking "Oh Boro didn't create his list for Elendil, must be an obstinate KM." I'm fine with doing it myself, but I don't think it's necessary to have a hardline mandatory agreement to do it.

But if everyone doesn't do the lists consistently, couldn't that be a means to for all to see the dream-recipient? I mean, if someone hasn't been doing it, then suddenly does it once, then stops again, wouldn't that expose them? I would think it would have to be done by all. Then again, maybe I'm missing something.

[Pomegranate]

But if everyone doesn't do the lists consistently, couldn't that be a means to for all to see the dream-recipient? I mean, if someone hasn't been doing it, then suddenly does it once, then stops again, wouldn't that expose them? I would think it would have to be done by all. Then again, maybe I'm missing something.

I don't know how much consistency would be necessary, though. I mean, yes, if someone never writes a list and then does it once, it would be obvious, but if someone forgets for one day I cannot see how that would point to anything really. Except of course if that one is the dreamer, in which case Elendil can make xis own assumptions. So it should be done usually, but it isn't the end of the world if forgotten once.

[Inziladun]

I don't know how much consistency would be necessary, though. I mean, yes, if someone never writes a list and then does it once, it would be obvious, but if someone forgets for one day I cannot see how that would point to anything really. Except of course if that one is the dreamer, in which case Elendil can make xis own assumptions. So it should be done usually, but it isn't the end of the world if forgotten once.

All right. I'm just looking for holes in this deal, before everyone just jumps in.

[the phantom]

But if everyone doesn't do the lists consistently, couldn't that be a means to for all to see the dream-recipient? I mean, if someone hasn't been doing it, then suddenly does it once, then stops again, wouldn't that expose them? I would think it would have to be done by all. Then again, maybe I'm missing something.
I get what you're saying here, and you're making me think Inzil....

Okay, so, here's what I'm thinking. Inzil has a point about consistency. If someone isn't doing much then suddenly says enough in which one could find an Elendil dream hint, that sticks out. Everyone ought to do something consistently- at the very least post enough in which to bury a hint.

And so my 3-name thing seems like the bare minimum, right? I mean honestly- if asking everyone to randomly list 3 people in their first post each day is too much, we may as well modfire everyone. Show up in the morning and say "Inzil-Shasta-Nerwen" and bang, you're done. Totally not difficult.

Now, for those that post more than others (e.g. me) I suppose it isn't technically necessary as I'm saying enough every day that slipping in a dream hint wouldn't be a problem, but I think the low-volume posters ought to be forced to agree to this plan. I mean- if they can't be bothered to type three people's names every 48 hours then we may as well lynch them.

Also- did anyone give any thoughts on my idea for Isildur to just save whoever gets lynched today given the simple odds at this point in the village?

Finally- are we ready for Amandil to step up?

[Pomegranate]

I agree that it is a good idea to go through every possible situation, Inzil, that's why I keep pointing out why it does work. So that every argument, pro and against, gets said. There is a reason why I haven't posted a list yet, that's because I don't want everyone to just jump blindly in, but I cannot come up with any proper problems; that doesn't mean that you or someone else couldn't.

[Boromir88]

Which means that, especially in the case of Amandil if not afterwards, Amandil could pretty explicitly just state "I dreamed of an innocent", since only Amandil and Elendil would know who's being thus labeled - no need for too much secret coding. Obviously the name of a KM can be shared. After Amandil the rest would need to be more concealed, and indeed the lists that tp suggested could come in handy.


Aye Amandil saying "I saw an innocent" or "I saw a KM" would also be the same as everyone creating an Elendil list. Either way, as long as it's done uniformly and consistently, that way there is no confusion with relaying dreams to Elendil then let's go with it.

If we do want to keep them concealed - stating explicitly known innocents would indeed, as mentioned, put the KM in the situation where they either have to accept the amount of unknown roles getting smaller and smaller, as well as facing the threat of being found themselves, while hunting for Elendil; or keep killing the known innocents and know that nothing threats Elendil apart from lynch. If the innocents will stay known only to Elendil (and the current dreamer), there is the danger that when Elendil dies we are left with very little trustworthy information.

Here's how I'm thinking about it...

Currently Elendil has one dream and sent it to one person. I would hope Elendil could rely on the information, but there's no way for Elendil to know this for sure. From what I understand, Elendil can double-check and send the same name to a different person, but that's wasting dream choices. And further, there would be no way for Elendil to know which person was telling the truth if he sent 2 people the same name and they relayed conflicting info.

Amandil revealing would establish that reliable chain of dreams. So, to expand on my earlier example.

1. Amandil reveals today, Elendil dreams Brinn and sends it to Amandil.

2. Amandil either with creating the list that's been talked about or just saying "I saw an innocent" will let Elendil know Brinn's innocent and it would not give the trail away to the KM.

3. Elendil proceeds to give the next name to Brinn and it continues on from there...

Now to your point Pom, what if in #3, Elendil is killed in the night. We could still follow the chain from Amandil who could say "The innocent I saw was Brinn" and then we would know to trust Brinn saying "I saw an innocent/KM." It wouldn't do much good for the KM to kill Amandil because the leaves Elendil still who could keep dreaming and continue the line of trustworthy dreams from Brinn.

This would seem to put under Elendil extreme risk of being discovered and having no Ranger protection, with Anarion being occupied protecting the dream-recipients (the innocent ones). Ideally it would be great to give Elendil as many chances as possible, but at the same time, there needs to be an established way to make sure Elendil is actually being relayed trustworthy dreams, otherwise Elendil (and thus the rest of us) is left in the dark, unsure if the relayed information is true or not.

[the phantom]

I'm still turning the implications of the roles over in my mind here- hope no one minds all this thinking out loud and asking for input. (To our moddess- seriously I find these rules/roles to be quite fun for providing Day 1 musings. Well done. :smokin: )

Lately I've been contemplating how bold dream recipients could potentially be even in the absence of Amandil. I mean- if last night's recipient admits to it and states the target, what are the baddies going to do about it? Kill him?

I don't think so, as that would then prove the dream-target's innocence/guilt and simultaneously leave Elendil alive for another dream. I'm thinking the KM's would most definitely not attack the dream recipient and target because those are two people guaranteed not to be Elendil.

Under this set up it would be ideal for Elendil to dream of the other gifteds or use them as recipients, as he simply has to be top priority for the Baddies thus they would as a rule shy away from killing his dreams. BUT how would the KMs even find Elendil given that he has zero secret verifiable information to pass on, as he himself is not the recipient? Seriously- I'm almost sorry for them.

And on my earlier point about Isildur just using his power on Day 1, if he does so might he just go ahead and Day 1 reveal? It would give another trustable figure, and also rule out the necessity of bothering to dream of him. The only downside I think would be the KMs could rule him out as Elendil. Any thoughts on this?

[the phantom]

Have not heard from these at all:
Lottie
Sally
Steve
Brin

[Pomegranate]

Phantom: That is pretty much what I was heading to with "stating explicitly known innocents would indeed, as mentioned, put the KM in the situation where they either have to accept the amount of unknown roles getting smaller and smaller, as well as facing the threat of being found themselves, while hunting for Elendil; or keep killing the known innocents and know that nothing threats Elendil apart from lynch." Either we'd get a new innocent every day (one that pretty much isn't under the threat of dying, as long as Elendil stays alive, given that KM would hunt for Elendil), or a new KM would be revealed. This would need the chain for it to work, though - otherwise there's no trusting the dreams. Or would it be worth it for the KM to fake dream reveals? If they are sent a dream, then yes - they can lie and no-one can prove it wrong.

I'll need to think about Isildur before having an opinion on it.

[the phantom]

Yeah, Pom- the chain thing would force the choice. I suppose Elendil will logically send Amandil a dream tonight of his previous recipient to start things off, then it'll be up to him whether or not to continue from the opposite end of the chain the next night- assuming that the opposite end has not already been found guilty, that is. Given that circumstance I suppose Amandil's dream target (last night's recipient) would request night protection and be granted a second dream to restart the innocent chain.

In rereading the rules on the Admin page I noticed this under Elendil-
May use gift on Night1.
Which I suppose means that it would be within his power not to use his gift Night 1. Do you think there's much of a chance that Elendil passed up his dream opportunity out of fear that he would reveal a Gifted to a Baddie on Night 1? I would understand some amount of hesitation given that Elendil had no Day activity to base suspicions off of, and given the number of Gifteds and their various useful powers he may have decided it would be wiser not to shoot the village in the foot with a potentially disastrous Night 1 selection.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

About Isildur's power to save a lynchee, what would happen if no-one in the village voted on Day One? Is this against the rules?

From the village perspective, it would be great to save Isildur's power, not lynch a gifted, and then have (hopefully) info to go on on Day Two.

Or is that completely ridiculous? Sorry, I'm cooking supper while thinking about this so it's probably not coherent. Also, my chili will probably turn out sub-standard due to lack of focus. :D

[Boromir88]

Which I suppose means that it would be within his power not to use his gift Night 1. Do you think there's much of a chance that Elendil passed up his dream opportunity out of fear that he would reveal a Gifted to a Baddie on Night 1? I would understand some amount of hesitation given that Elendil had no Day activity to base suspicions off of, and given the number of Gifteds and their various useful powers he may have decided it would be wiser not to shoot the village in the foot with a potentially disastrous Night 1 selection.

If we go with this, that's why it's vital to start with a revealed Amandil. If Elendil doesn't start from a known innocent, that runs the risk of him choosing a KM as a dream recipient. If a KM is a recipient, a bold one with a pack confident they can get rid of Elendil within 1 night or 2, could actually bluntly reveal "I was a recipient and ____ was the dream, is innocent."

This could be disastrous because Elendil wouldn't be able to refute the recipient's reveal. If the KM just tells the truth about the dream being innocent, that person can't refute "That's right I am innocent." KMs whack Elendil first, then the dreamed innocent the KM received next. And the KM recipient has the added defense "they're trying to get Elendil first, not go after the target or recipient" to stay alive longer. By the time everyone realizes the recipient was a KM it might be too late to correct it, all because the KM correctly admits to being the dream-recipient and then tells the truth about the target.

[Mänwe]

More likely that Elendil picks an ordo the first night than it is for any King's Men to correctly kill Elendil in the first night.

But yes, Amandil to reveal himself- with the hope the Ranger is watching to save him in the night.

As for Isuldur's power, I would say not to reveal himself- if we already have Amandil making himself known we're giving away two roles! You are wanting a very transparent game aren't you tp?

[Inziladun]

Also- did anyone give any thoughts on my idea for Isildur to just save whoever gets lynched today given the simple odds at this point in the village?

It's a gamble. I get that the odds favor an innocent being saved, but that's a waste of Isildur's gift. Might as well do what Eomer suggested and not vote, or deliberately tie, which will result in no death.

However, I'm always reluctant to avoid voting, even with slim suspicions. Votes are the only weapon for the village.

Finally- are we ready for Amandil to step up?

Is Amandil ready to step up?

Currently Elendil has one dream and sent it to one person. I would hope Elendil could rely on the information, but there's no way for Elendil to know this for sure. From what I understand, Elendil can double-check and send the same name to a different person, but that's wasting dream choices. And further, there would be no way for Elendil to know which person was telling the truth if he sent 2 people the same name and they relayed conflicting info.

I don't see what you mean by saying "I would hope Elendil could rely on the information, but there's no way for Elendil to know this for sure." Elendil gets his dream result from the Moddess, and shares them with the person of their choice, right? I feel like I'm missing something elementary. I have caffeine in front of me now though, so that's a help. ;)

And what happens to this plan if Amandil dies? He cannot be protected consecutive Nights.

As for Isuldur's power, I would say not to reveal himself- if we already have Amandil making himself known we're giving away two roles! You are wanting a very transparent game aren't you tp?

Known innocents are always a headache for baddies, but I do share some reluctance in having two Gifteds out so early in the game. Then again, there is Anarion. That's a lot on his shoulders, though.

[the phantom]

You are wanting a very transparent game aren't you tp?
Heh- just willing to float any idea to see if it'll give an edge.

And to Boro- yes, exactly, that's what I mean about Elendil electing not to have a Night 1 dream. Strategically he may have thought it better to play it safe and wait for Amandil to show up etc. I think really it's down to personality.
Elendil gets his dream result from the Moddess, and shares them with the person of their choice, right?
Nope. Elendil doesn't see any results. He chooses the dreamer and the dream and then it's out of his hands. He gets nothing. It's a very interesting role.
About Isildur's power to save a lynchee, what would happen if no-one in the village voted on Day One? Is this against the rules?
Hmmmm.... I'll have to think about that when I'm less distracted....

[Pomegranate]

I'd also feel bad not voting - votes tend to be the main thing to be read and interpreted, and somehow only relying on seer powers would make me feel like I'm cheating ;)

[Inziladun]

Nope. Elendil doesn't see any results. He chooses the dreamer and the dream and then it's out of his hands. He gets nothing. It's a very interesting role.

The missing link. I was stuck on this from the Admin Thread:

Every Night [Elendil] reveals the role of one other player to a third player.

By "reveals the role", I was reading that Elendil himself would know what he revealed. All righty then.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I had such plans for this role, too - I was going to be all quasi-Seerish and get murdered. Sigh.

Oh well. Hi, I'm your friendly neighborhood Amandil.

[Boromir88]

And to Boro- yes, exactly, that's what I mean about Elendil electing not to have a Night 1 dream. Strategically he may have thought it better to play it safe and wait for Amandil to show up etc. I think really it's down to personality.


True, but if there was a Night 1 recipient it would be easy enough for Elendil to check if Amandil reveals today. Send the Night 1 recipient to Amandil, and if KM then the possible damage would be minimized. If not, then Elendil knows he can trust the dream sent to the Night 1 recipient.

Edit: crossed with Shasta...well then

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Regarding Isildur... eh. I'm kind of on Inzil's side in that I'm also reluctant to have two Gifted revealed this early, and I also feel like we should still lynch someone today. But then I'm well known to be bloodthirsty. :smokin:

[Eönwë]

So, it looks like there's been more useful discussion that usual for a Day 1. And because of this, I'm inclined to believe that the phantom is innocent. It seems unlikely that a KM would suggest such ideas, but then, it is tp we're talking about.

As for the actual discussion points, I think we've already agreed that Amandil revealing himself would be a good idea. Of course, it's completely his choice, but it's definitely better for him to die when we still have gifteds.

As for the different ideas for dream revelations, it seems to me that the three options (that have been thought of so far) have their drawbacks. In the non-cooperative natural state, nothing significant happens unless someone reveals a KM, though this could be abused at a later stage by a desperate KM to buy an extra day. It also means that we could get unreliable claims of innocence when someone is on the verge of being lynched, which could be quite chaotic.

In phantom's 'three evils' suggestion, there's the possibility that Elendil could take the identities to his grave, as with the usual Seer, because in this scenario, he effectively acts as the normal Seer.

In the 'open chain' suggestion, where all the dreams are public, there's the problem that the chain can be permanently broken and gifteds can be exposed.

So I'm not sure what I think is best yet.

edit: *Waves at Shastamandil*

[satansaloser2005]

I had such plans for this role, too - I was going to be all quasi-Seerish and get murdered.

Not if I have anything to say about it. I need my darling psychic. *nuzzles you*

I'm here, kiddos. I'll be home in two hours or so and can actually manage more than just snark, but I am certainly around and reading.

[the phantom]

Shasta- you lucky dog! When looking over the roles I can tell you Amandil is the one that jumped out at me- "Gah! I should've looked this over sooner and begged the Moddess for that role! I could reveal immediately and push people around!" :D

But the task of pushing people around instead falls to you. So... any orders?

I assume you're nixing Eomer's idea for a no-vote after that last post.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Shasta- you lucky dog! When looking over the roles I can tell you Amandil is the one that jumped out at me- "Gah! I should've looked this over sooner and begged the Moddess for that role! I could reveal immediately and push people around!" :D

But the task of pushing people around instead falls to you. So... any orders?

I assume you're nixing Eomer's idea for a no-vote after that last post.

Well, yes. I don't feel like we should be wasting time - it almost always turns out poorly.

As for orders, though... hmm.

Dance for me, minions! :D

[Inziladun]

Ok, then. So Amandil is exposed. It's against my nature to trust Shasta, especially this early, but there you are. ;)

So, what now? I would still say we ought to vote today.

x/d with all since #50.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Supposing the KMs do ignore me in favor of looking for Elendil, though - as far as I could tell, Elendil can reveal to the same person twice in a row.

Actually, scratch that train of thought. If the KMs think they can kill me off and negate a dream, it might actually be worth it to them. Probably a good idea to vary the recipients. Or am I wrong?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Question for the consensus - suppose Elendil reveals someone to me and they end up being Anarion or Isildur. Ought I mention giftedness? Or stick with innocence?

[Loslote]

Hi, everyone! Sorry I'm late. I got held up by a vicious pack of squirrels - I swear, I've never seen them this mad before - and I had to sneak around the back way just to get here. So, what's going on?

Oh.

Right.

That whole 'murder' thing. Bit of a downer, that. And I was so looking forward to a relaxing weekend! I suppose it's not a total waste, though - we've just got to take care of those nasty King's Men quickly, is all. What are we waiting for?

[/IC]

So. Not bad for a Day 1. Amandil is out already, which narrows our choice for lynchings - if we even decide to lynch anyone at all. I think this is shaping up quite well. I'll be online...basically from here on out.

EDIT: xed with a lot of people. Also, lynchings tonight. Got it. ^.^

[Inziladun]

Supposing the KMs do ignore me in favor of looking for Elendil, though - as far as I could tell, Elendil can reveal to the same person twice in a row.

Per The Rules, it's no more than twice in a row.

Actually, scratch that train of thought. If the KMs think they can kill me off and negate a dream, it might actually be worth it to them. Probably a good idea to vary the recipients. Or am I wrong?

Sending to a different person each Night increases the odds of giving info to a baddie, but also could create havoc for them by having so much info in the hands of the village. I think it's the right way to go.

x/d with Shasta and Lottie

[Inziladun]

Question for the consensus - suppose Elendil reveals someone to me and they end up being Anarion or Isildur. Ought I mention giftedness? Or stick with innocence?

Innocent should be enough.

[the phantom]

Dance for me, minions!
If you don't mind, some LotR characters (http://youtu.be/F0jdNud33f4) would like to get in on the action. :p
Probably a good idea to vary the recipients. Or am I wrong?
If Elendil sent a dream Night 1 then logically he'll send you his dream recipient tonight. If you find the target innocent then you declare "Person X is innocent" and then they step up and say "and my Night 1 dream was Person Y and they were innocent/guilty".

Unless someone can think of a better suggestion I figure that's certain to happen.
Question for the consensus - suppose Elendil reveals someone to me and they end up being Anarion or Isildur. Ought I mention giftedness? Or stick with innocence?
I suppose just stick with innocence, for, as I said earlier, the KMs will logically avoid killing dream choices because they're guaranteed not to be Elendil, but if you straight up tell them "Gifted" then maybe they will take the opportunity?

Or actually... Hmm... I dunno if they would or not. It still doesn't rid them of Elendil.

But of course if they do successfully bump off Elendil they know where the next Gifted can be found. Bleh... I need time to think about this more clearly.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sending to a different person each Night increases the odds of giving info to a baddie, but also could create havoc for them by having so much info in the hands of the village. I think it's the right way to go.

The reason I mentioned it is, supposing Anarion protects me tonight, I'll be alive and unprotected tomorrow night. If Elendil elects to send me a second dream in order to have the public voice, the KM might bite the bullet and kill me when it will do the most damage by negating a dream.

Also, duly noted - "innocent" it is. Now that that's out of the way, it's probably a good idea to move on. I'll need to reread the thread - no one's jumped out at me yet.

[Loslote]

Sending to a different person each Night increases the odds of giving info to a baddie, but also could create havoc for them by having so much info in the hands of the village. I think it's the right way to go.

But, if Elendil sends his dreams, not to Amandil, but to those (s)he trusts - and (s)he would send them to the players (s)he trusted, for fear of sending the dream to a KM - then the KMs would be able to rule out (in a rough guess of who has been dreamed) the people who have received dreams. Similarly, the KMs would know, if they receive a dream, that Elendil is one of the people who trust him/her, and their list of people who could be Elendil would be shortened that much more. I think spreading out the information among too many people and then trying to piece it together afterwards leaves to much risk of the KMs getting a better grasp of the situation than we get.

EDIT: xed with tp and Shasta.

[Inziladun]

But, if Elendil sends his dreams, not to Amandil, but to those (s)he trusts - and (s)he would send them to the players (s)he trusted, for fear of sending the dream to a KM - then the KMs would be able to rule out (in a rough guess of who has been dreamed) the people who have received dreams. Similarly, the KMs would know, if they receive a dream, that Elendil is one of the people who trust him/her, and their list of people who could be Elendil would be shortened that much more. I think spreading out the information among too many people and then trying to piece it together afterwards leaves to much risk of the KMs getting a better grasp of the situation than we get.

But keeping the dreams going to one person risks that person getting killed, doesn't it?

[Eönwë]

Wait, so does that mean that we've decided on the open reveal option? Doesn't that mean that the KMs get a free kill every Night (unless Anarion is cunning)?

[Eönwë]

Do you think there's much of a chance that Elendil passed up his dream opportunity out of fear that he would reveal a Gifted to a Baddie on Night 1? This is an interesting idea to entertain, but we can't really do much about it, and it won't affect us until some sort of reveal.

[Brinniel]

Well, toDay seems a bit busier than most Day Ones I recall. At least I wasn't expecting to process so much info right away. But hey, substance is always a good thing. My brain's just feeling slightly overwhelmed...I don't know whether to attribute that to my headache or lack of WWing over the years. Maybe both.

Do you see any drawbacks to everyone randomly listing 3 "guilty" names each day thus providing Elendil a clear indication on whether his dream recipient found his dream target to be guilty?
This could work as long as these lists are truly regarded by everyone else as random. Because the only drawback I can see is that if other people start using these lists to judge guilt or innocence, that could lead to a big mess. Innocents have a difficult enough time guessing one guilty player early on so it's unlikely that they'll be able to give a strong reasoning to why they think three players are evil. So voting against someone simply because of their list could lead to a lot of innocent lynches. And later on, we certainly can't use a known wolf's lists to identify innocents.

As for not voting, as difficult as it may be to identify the baddies on Day 1, I'm not sure not voting anyone would be a good idea. For one thing, if anyone ends up missing the deadline toMorrow to vote, they would be modfired.

Also, was anything mentioned regarding retractable votes? It would be good to know considering retractable votes can greatly impact the outcome of a lynch.

[the phantom]

supposing Anarion protects me tonight, I'll be alive and unprotected tomorrow night. If Elendil elects to send me a second dream in order to have the public voice, the KM might bite the bullet and kill me when it will do the most damage by negating a dream.
I doubt Elendil will send you consecutive dreams because of that exact situation. But rather, he'll start at the end of the chain instead.

Meaning:
Night 1: player X finds player Y innocent
Night 2: Shasta finds player X innocent
Night 3: player Y finds player Z ???

So basically, Anarion protects you tonight and the next night he protects player Y (the person dreamed of on Night 1, assuming there was a dream and that the dream was innocent).

If player Y is guilty, then player X is selected to receive a second dream and will be protected by Anarion.

If Amandil finds player X to be guilty tonight, however, that will demand a restarting of the chain. And if the baddies don't kill Amandil Night 3 then Elendil can send him another dream Night 4 (under Anarion's protection) connecting him to the random dream he selected Night 3, thus restarting the chain.

(x-posted with many)

[Eönwë]

This could work as long as these lists are truly regarded by everyone else as random.
Yeah, I've been thinking about this. I think it's pretty neutral in terms of the rest of the gameplay if they are regarded as actually random, since it affects everyone the same way.

[Loslote]

Also, if we're ever going to use those lists, toDay would be the Day. After all, we know (almost for sure) that someone got a dream, and that Elendil didn't know who Amandil was. So...

Random People Who, If I Had Dreamed Them, Would Be Guilty - Or At Least Not Innocent
Eonwe
Pomegranate
Zil

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Not Innocent People If I Saw Them Under The Pale Moonlight
Boro
Lottie
Manwe

Fair enough.

[the phantom]

So, does anyone see a problem with the dream target/recipient outline I presented three posts up? If not then I suggest we assume it is in operation.

(I realize Elendil may feel like I'm taking away his freedom or something, but I think it makes sense to have him serve the village in a predictable and organized manner rather than shoot from the hip, particularly if he doesn't have ample time to strategize. Similarly, I hope you don't think I sabotaged your game too much by clamoring for a reveal, Shasta.)

Anyway, yeah, my list of three... I'll just go with the 3 I mentioned earlier, except one of them is the revealed Amandil so that would be just stupid. So... Inzil, Nerwen, Lottie then.

[Eönwë]

So, it looks like my didn't factor in last Night's dream when considering the positives and negatives of either Elendil-plan. The chain seems unbreakable as long as a dream goes through.

Three-people random list

Pros
*Keeps those found innocent safe.
*Elendil has more people to hide among.

Cons
*General knowledge dies with Elendil- each person given a dream could only know one identity, and so any claims would be impossible to prove until one of the two dies.
*Elendil has to reveal at some point to be of any use.

Neutral
*Gives everyone amnesty from their 3-people choice.



Open reveals

Pros
*People have innocents whose opinions they can trust.
*Wolves can be revealed straight away.
*Elendil doesn't have to reveal.

Cons
*Elendil has a dwindling number of people to hide behind.
*Gifteds become known innocents, and so become easier targets for the KMs.



I have an alternative suggestion: We do the 3-person thing, but when someone finds a KM they reveal. A person on the good side would die anyway that Night, so at least they take down a KM with them. And if there's a counter-claim of some sort, at least we have a known KM between the two of them.


edit: x-ed with Shasta

[Inziladun]

I'll go with:

1.Sally
2.Morsul
3.Nerwen

x/d with Steve

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So, does anyone see a problem with the dream target/recipient outline I presented three posts up? If not then I suggest we assume it is in operation.

(I realize Elendil may feel like I'm taking away his freedom or something, but I think it makes sense to have him serve the village in a predictable and organized manner rather than shoot from the hip, particularly if he doesn't have ample time to strategize. Similarly, I hope you don't think I sabotaged your game too much by clamoring for a reveal, Shasta.)

Anyway, yeah, my list of three... I'll just go with the 3 I mentioned earlier, except one of them is the revealed Amandil so that would be just stupid. So... Inzil, Nerwen, Lottie then.

Oh, the usual attitude of "Dangit Phantom, stop being so controlling!" is there, and I admit I do have the urge to go entirely contrary to the plan just to prove I can, but as stated already, my big plan was to look very Seer-ish and then get murdered early, so I imagine I'm helping out more in this capacity. :rolleyes:

[Pomegranate]

Lottie, Eonwe, Inzil. Now some more catching up - I'll need to go to bed pretty soon, it's been a long day, and thus will have to vote. I think I will indeed vote - if you guys decide it's better to not have a lynch today, you can just tie it.

[Boromir88]

My random, but perhaps not so random guilty list of 3:

Eomer
Inzil
Manwe

I say not so random because these are also the Top 3 I've been considering voting for.

Who I have no interest to vote for today:

Shasta
the phantom
Pom

Everyone else is undetermined/neutral.

Will explain these reasons after I eat.

[the phantom]

Oh, the usual attitude of "Dangit Phantom, stop being so controlling!" is there, and I admit I do have the urge to go entirely contrary to the plan just to prove I can
:D Heh heh... I'm going to claim I behaved somewhat tolerably based on the fact that I was nice enough to ask everyone else what they thought before getting more insistent.

I suppose the real question is, if everyone had given a resounding "no", would I have responded "whatever, do it anyway". :p

[Morsul the Dark]

King's Cronies
Manwe
Boro
Nerwen

I think I read these two pages 4 times before I figured out what was going on so simple yet I couldn't digest it:rolleyes:.

On a personal note number one priority for me not having tunnel vision this time around. It's gotten me into trouble in the past.

See phantom's dream plan seems solid and good for the villiage but revealing Isildur as well? That's just a bad idea I think.

I will be back in a bit gym and groceries...


Edit: bolded list
I'll be annoyingly present Friday, day off.

[Inziladun]

My (random?) list notwithstanding, at the moment Steve is probably my top lynch pick, mainly because I think not voting plays to the baddies more often than not.

[Loslote]

Of the list I posted earlier, Eonwe topped the list because I actually did (and still do) feel a tiny bit off about him. Nothing anywhere near suspicion, just Day 1 guy feeling. Pomegranate made it on because I have always liked...her?...name. Zil was complete hat-draw.


All this goes to say, if I had to vote now, I'd go for Eonwe. I just feel like your posts are a bit too...careful.

EDIT: xed with Zil. Um. Oh. Right. Hi there.

[the phantom]

Okay, so... I'd better start forming suspicions for voting, right? I'm going to blame it on not playing for so long, but I've seriously been forgetting to read with any sense of guilt/innocence in mind- as if we've just been having a pregame strategy discussion or something. :rolleyes: *sigh* Time to reread.... Back soon with thoughts....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

My list of three is: Manwe, Inzil and Morsul.

But I am going to vote for Sally. That 'just checking in' post rubs me the wrong way. Though I would be happy to lynch anyone but Shasta, I suppose. :p

++SALLY

[Eönwë]

My (random?) list notwithstanding, at the moment Steve is probably my top lynch pick, mainly because I think not voting plays to the baddies more often than not.
What? I never suggested not voting.

edit: Oh, wait, you mean that you feel like you need to vote someone.

[Pomegranate]

So, what we have here.

Shasta is obviously off my radar at the moment.

I don't want to vote for the phantom - partially because this is a very useful system and I can't see how it would work pro-KM and partially because I don't like voting amusing/interesting/loud players on the first Day.

Everyone else... yeah.

It seems to me there are a couple of people who have in general only been slightly confused: Brin, to a degree Morsul. Convincing enough in their innocent baffledness so I don't want to vote for them now.

Boro: I'm not any better in this than usual, but he brings up and elaborates good points and thus I'm reluctant to look at him today. The only confusing thing is his big opposition against the pretty harmless lists.

Sally: hasn't been around enough for me to have anything to say about her.

Eonwe: my gut-feeling of him is not bad, if not good. Some good analysis on the reveals and chains and such. Nothing to make him lean to the negative side too much.

Eomer: Brings up the 'if we'd not lynch anyone', which is always a bit creepy. Apart from that doesn't really do much- tries to find loopholes in phantom's plan (but don't we all?). I think he's leaning towards negative in my chart, but not by much.

Lottie: Can't say much. Neutral so far.

Manwe: Brings up a couple of points, but forgets the ranger so they are a bit irrelevant. Would a baddie forget the ranger? Or act as if he had? Neutral so far.

I'd say the ones I feel worst about are Inzil and Nerwen.

Nerwen comments smart points but mainly points out other people's mistakes, miscalculations or rules. Makes her seem sharp without any comment on the actual gaming and decisionmaking.

Inzil seems to me slightly more confused than normal, as well as more - explanatory. When we were giving counterarguments to her loophole-hunt, she was quick to make sure we knew she wasn't actually against it, just

All right. I'm just looking for holes in this deal, before everyone just jumps in.

and

Well, I didn't say the possibility of a fake reveal should prevent the plan, it was just a thought I had.

Which is true, but that's what we were all doing - throwing ideas forth and back. No need to explain your actions there.

I'll say the normal day 1 "These are obviously no serious suspicions, we don't have enough material etc etc" and vote for ++Inzil. The couple of quotes and gut feeling are enough to make me feel uncomfortable at this time of Day 1, and I cannot stay for longer.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Though I would be happy to lynch anyone but Shasta, I suppose.
I'm going to take a screenshot of this, print it out, and frame it, for it will surely never be said again. :Merisu:

I'm still thinking about a vote.

[the phantom]

Well, it doesn't help that I'm not familiar with everyone. It takes time to get a feel for new folks. Anyone that gets a "free pass" means I'd probably vote to save them (not just that I wouldn't vote for them). Plus there are a lot of distractions here- sorry if some of this is incoherent...

Sally & Morsul- I'd really like to see more from them. I feel like one good reactionary post would let me put them as free pass or vote-worthy.

Eomer- He rubbed me the right way with his comment about not voting. Not the suggestion itself, but the way he said it. He gets a free pass.

Inzil- I'm not super comfortable with #22 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=676701&postcount=22)- something to do with the way he speaks of distrusting Amandil. But in two other posts I have him marked as sounding rather innocent. Meh... Probably not voting for him...

Steve- I don't exactly like his Amandil comments here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=676730&postcount=50). The comment about revealing because an early death would be great just feels slightly off, because frankly I don't think there's any possibility of an early death unless Elendil is lynched today, as Amandil will have protection through the night and his death would hand the village another weapon and ensure Elendil's survival.... So when the KMs don't take their free shot at Amandil Night 3 people can suddenly act surprised by the choice despite the fact that it's clearly the right call. But his summary post of the options was quite clear and accurate and I don't exactly want to off him yet. *sigh*

Boro- I see a couple little ploys he has working. It's too early to say if he's legit at this point, but the effort is there and I like the thought. Free pass.

Shasta- Not lynching him. Obviously. Free pass.

Brin- Hasn't played in a while, so automatically has a pass from me until tomorrow. Free pass.

I'm coming away with not much of an impression of Nerwen, Lottie, Manwe, and PomPom. I'd almost lean towards voting one of them for the sake of convenience. (I'm perfectly aware that's not at all fair.)

Seriously- I need to go someplace quieter to do this. *starts skimming again*

[Boromir88]

Eomer was the first one who suggested to not lynch anyone today, and a generally bad feeling from someone who has been looking fairly distant throughout the day. I mean there's been a nice prompting of talk for Day 1, and Eomer's stayed back with a sentence here and sentence there about the topics. And the vote for sally, looks safe and easy. Yes sally has only popped in with an "I'm here post," but that seems like a typical sally, who I expect will be back to add more before the day's end.

Pom's thoughts on Inzil are basically the same as mine. The positive is he's been involved with a fairly clear stance (unlike Eomer). Yet, he's been the only one reading that just has not convinced me he likes the Amandil revealing plan. Yes, many have been prodding questions and thinking of possible scenarios to flesh out the plan in full, but I've got this impression Inzil is grudgingly going along with it.

Manwe's been kind of similar to Eomer in a few critical questions here and there about the phantom's brainstorming. Yet I haven't gotten a good idea where he stands on it/how he feels about all of it.

---

The who I won't vote for today...Shasta and the phantom should be pretty self-explanatory.

With Pom, I've been quite comfortable bouncing all the ideas back and fourth with her. I suppose I should be paranoid that a wolf-Pom could still have enough guile to make me feel comfortable, but not going to worry and be paranoid about that possiblity today.

Edit: crossed with the phantom

[satansaloser2005]

Eomer, your three theoretical guilty parties are all young lads and yet, instead of voting for one of them, you attempt to sink your noose into the neck of a wee lass whose only apparent crime is saying hello? You hooligan. A pox on you and possibly your king.

I was going to defy Phantom's plan just to be difficult, but I'm in rather high spirits today, so I'll play nice. As always, however, I must constantly remind myself that a clever Phantom isn't necessary a Phantom who has my best interests at heart. (Note that this is just as much the case outside of Werewolf. He's really quite a horrible man. :p)

Assuming I heard anything last Night, which I absolutely didn't, I may have reason to point a finger at Dun, Steve, and my sweet prince Boro. Not my finger, necessarily, but a finger.

Meanwhile, annoyance at typical phananigans aside, I won't have any part in a lynch that involves Phantom, Brinn, Shasta (obviously), Pom, or myself (also obviously).

Finishing dinner and then back with more specific thoughts.

EDIT: x'd since Eomer's vote, which means I have a bit of catching up to do

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think I'm going to go ahead and vote -

++Eonwe

- because some of his posts earlier, after the Amandil-plan was pretty much already dealt with, he seemed to continue the discussion a bit over-much. Shaky thread, I know, but it reminded me a bit of a wolf looking for something to say to seem helpful.

[Brinniel]

My list of three:
Eomer
Manwe
Nerwen

[the phantom]

Probably goes without saying, but Isildur probably ought to be around near the deadline if at all possible, even if he elects to be silent so as to mask his presence. Just being there would be helpful in the event that we're set to lynch Player X and he can prove somewhat convincingly that he's Gifted at the end.

Also, it just occurred to me we may want some sort of contingency plan should Elendil end up lynched somehow. With no dream to receive, Amandil would no longer be an absolute priority. He'd still be on the kill list I'd say, but not necessarily an immediate necessity, thus leaving Anarion free to bluff his protection. Any obvious suggestions for such a situation?

[Inziladun]

Just getting home after a thankfully minor traffic accident, only to realize I confused Steve with Eomer in my last post. Must be the E's. Let's get caught up now.

[satansaloser2005]

I think Isildur should try to save his power for when it's absolutely necessary (for instance, as Phantom just mentioned, the accidental near lynch of a gifted). And yes, I'm equally hopeful Isildur's able to either be around near DL or accurately predict the mood swings of the village so as to help if needed.

As counterintuitive as this sounds, I'd love for the power to never be used, though I'm sure we'll have some situation in which we'll need it. Saving it for the opportune moment is key, however. Thus, the mentions of possibly nullifying a likely useless lynch toDay? I'm vehemently opposed to such an idea. In fact, such a suggestion looks pretty fishy to me, as it gives a legitimate-sounding excuse for an idea that actually hurts the village in the long run.

More food. Less Werewolf.

EDIT: x'd with Dun

[satansaloser2005]

Just getting home after a thankfully minor traffic accident, only to realize I confused Steve with Eomer in my last post. Must be the E's. Let's get caught up now.

Goodness, dear. I'm glad you're all right.

[Eönwë]

Also, it just occurred to me we may want some sort of contingency plan should Elendil end up lynched somehow. With no dream to receive, Amandil would no longer be an absolute priority. He'd still be on the kill list I'd say, but not necessarily an immediate necessity, thus leaving Anarion free to bluff his protection. Any obvious suggestions for such a situation?
Well, if Elendil gets lynched toDay, there's really not much we can do. Amandil's status is reduced to known innocent (albeit with a bonus power) in that case.

One thing that would need to be sorted out, though, is the Night 1 dream. Would it be advisable to have a reveal? And could such a reveal even be trusted?

[Loslote]

Just getting home after a thankfully minor traffic accident,

Oh! I hope you're alright! :eek:

I can see the points against Eomer, but I think it can probably be passed off mostly as Day One banter. If he keeps up like this past toDay, I'd raise a few eyebrows (not necessarily my own), but for now, I'll give him a pass.

Eonwe still rubs me the wrong way. Nothing really concrete, but I don't get a very innocent reading off his posts.

I'm not thrilled with Boro - he seems too keyed into popular opinion - passing off tp as 'not voting for' with the same level of surety as Shasta doesn't seem particularly innocent to me. I would think, as a wolf, you'd find both Shasta and tp untouchable due to popular opinion towards them, but as an innocent, you'd find Shasta untouchable and tp generally innocent-seeming but not beyond consideration.

Pom...good job Pom. You make me happy with your postings. :D

Anyway, I'd go for Eonwe and Boro at this point.

EDIT: xed since Zil's accident post.

[Inziladun]

Goodness, dear. I'm glad you're all right.

Thanks much. You too, Lottie. No one injured, minimal damage, and I wasn't at fault. As good as it could have been.

So yeah, I think I'm leaning toward Eomer for what I said before. No one else looks terribly shifty at this point.

++Eomer

[the phantom]

A few more tidbits from reading page 1-

Morsul asking about how many KMs there are in #6 doesn't look the best. "I can't be a KM. I don't even know how many of us there are!" But then something about his pessimism in the next line seems on level. But then in #17 his "hope we have more time!" comment seems to say "I'm an Ordo!" too forcibly, and his "clever clever" might be a bit of an attempt to ingratiate himself. Has not earned a pass from me.

Nerwen- I think I'm tipping her into my free pass category at this point. Still don't have a read, but looking back I think that's more my fault than hers. Give it time.

Manwe- Also gets a Day 1 pass after rereading. The reactions on page 1 were either innocent or faked rather well (which deserves a reward naturally).

Inzil- His comment in #22 about Amandil's reveal being his decision in the end still doesn't feel right to me- almost like a KM that's worried about what such a thing could mean for him.

[satansaloser2005]

Morsul asking about how many KMs there are in #6 doesn't look the best. "I can't be a KM. I don't even know how many of us there are!"

I'm equally hesitant to believe any defense that is based off alleged naivete.

[Eönwë]

Just getting home after a thankfully minor traffic accident, only to realize I confused Steve with Eomer in my last post.
Ah, that makes sense. Glad you're ok.

Also, my 3-list for toDay is:
Phantom
Nerwen
Eomer

[the phantom]

VOTES
Eomer ++ Sally
Pom ++ Inzil
Shasta ++ Steve
Inzil ++ Eomer

VOTERS REMAINING
Morsul
Nerwen
Lottie
Manwe
Phantom
sally
Boro
Steve
Brin

[Galadriel55]

It is an hour before DL. Please remember to vote!

[Boromir88]

Votes are:

Sally - 1 (Eomer)
Inzil - 1 (Pom)
Eonwe - 1 (Shasta)
Eomer - 1 (Inzil)

---

Oi, glad you're ok Inzil at least it sounds very similar to my accident a few days ago...when I was at a stop sign and someone rear-ended me. Still dealing with the other motorists insurance was a bit of hastle, so best wishes.

If Elendil is lynched that would be downright crummy, but as far as I can tell there is nothing we can do about it. We just have to proceed with out a seer and a revealed Shastamandil on Day 2. It would torpedo the chance of getting reliable dreams, but seer's have been lynched Day 1 before, and we'll have to live with the fact of making a really poor lynch choice to hopefully make better decisions in the future.

[Inziladun]

Ah, that makes sense. Glad you're ok.

Thank you, sir.

Oi, glad you're ok Inzil at least it sounds very similar to my accident a few days ago...when I was at a stop sign and someone rear-ended me. Still dealing with the other motorists insurance was a bit of hastle, so best wishes.

Glad you were all right as well. I was actually stopped in traffic when the other vehicle hit me from behind. The damage is really barely noticeable, but just enough that it needs to be fixed. It's an inconvenience, but thankfully nothing more.

If Elendil is lynched that would be downright crummy, but as far as I can tell there is nothing we can do about it. We just have to proceed with out a seer and a revealed Shastamandil on Day 2. It would torpedo the chance of getting reliable dreams, but seer's have been lynched Day 1 before, and we'll have to live with the fact of making a really poor lynch choice to hopefully make better decisions in the future.

The risk that's always there, to be sure. But failure to vote just helps the baddies.

[the phantom]

Page 2 & 3 tidbits-

Inzil again is potentially squirmy about Amandil stepping up in #43. And there's a bit of the "defense of naivete" thing going on later when he doesn't realize that Elendil doesn't actually see the dream. I'm struggling with this one... On principle I dislike such defenses, but wow is this a good one, and well executed if it's in fact a ploy. (KMs after a full night of discussion would have to know the functioning of their primary enemy, right?) As annoying as it is I'm actually wanting to pass him through due to this. *grumble* Mind versus heart, you know...

Lottie's first post #57 is... weird. And I honestly don't know what I think of it.

Pom gets a pass due to unfamiliarity combined with participation.

Sally- I like the word "phananigans". Leaning towards free pass on those grounds...
One thing that would need to be sorted out, though, is the Night 1 dream. Would it be advisable to have a reveal? And could such a reveal even be trusted?
Nope, couldn't really be trusted. But yeah, I figure the dreamer will feel the need to reveal if under pressure- particularly if there's evidence to point back to that would support the claim. Or heck- maybe reveal and just hope you're trusted? If there's info out there may as well try to use it, right?

[Galadriel55]

Boro, Inzil - I'm glad you're both alright!

[Loslote]

I'll go with a gut feeling rather than a surface argument and vote for

++Eonwe

Not that I'm all that certain that he's a KM, but he's the best bet I've got right now.

[Nerwen]

Well, here's my list: Morsul, Lottie, Brin.

Now, do I actually vote on Day One, or would that cause the universe to implode? Decisions, decisions...

[the phantom]

Okay, so, if I combined my readthrough posts together I get something like this-

Will defend with the fury of a thousand suns-
Shasta
Phantom

Will defend with the fury of one largish sun-
Pom
Boro
Manwe
Brin

Will defend with the fury of a forest fire-
Sally
Inzil
Nerwen
Eomer

Will defend with the fury of a medium sized campfire-
Lottie
Steve

Will defend with the fury of a lighter-
Morsul

Honestly I don't like my list very much. *sigh* I think I forgot how difficult Day 1 is. :rolleyes:

[satansaloser2005]

Now, do I actually vote on Day One, or would that cause the universe to implode? Decisions, decisions...

I think the 'verse could handle the shock waves. ;)

[Eönwë]

People that are slightly unsettling/a bit off:

Eomer- Posts nothing of substance except for the post suggesting not getting a lynch at all today.

Sally- Her post on Isildur is pretty good, but other than that, I'm not really getting a good feeling from her other posts.

Other than that, the phantom and Pom seem pretty good, Shasta has revealed and there hasn't been a counter, I'm not sure whether I like whatBoro's doing or not, I'm feeling mixed about Zil, and I'm really uncertain about anyone else.

[Morsul the Dark]

Well Oviously I Like Phantom and shasta that goes without saying.

The two I'm most worried about are Sally mostly because Phantom made some pretty good points(even if they're wrong) and Sally readily jumped in to join him. Looks like a possible attempt at bandwagoning to me.The other person who worries me a bit is Nerwen not much suspicious but almost too clean. Besides which she has a record of flying under my radar...



Eonwe is a bit fishy but not vote worthy

basically I can only rule out who Not to vote for at this point.

Aw heck it's day one and frankly I have to go with my gut...

++ Sally

Edit: xed a bunch

[Eönwë]

I think the 'verse could handle the shock waves. ;) But what if she's a Reav- Oh, wait, wrong fandom... :rolleyes:

[satansaloser2005]

But what if she's a Reav- Oh, wait, wrong fandom... :rolleyes:

Win. ^_^

You seem a decent fellow. I hate to kill- Wait. Also wrong fandom....

[the phantom]

VOTES
Eomer ++ Sally
Pom ++ Inzil
Shasta ++ Steve
Inzil ++ Eomer
Lottie ++ Steve (2)
Morsul ++ Sally (2)

VOTERS REMAINING
Nerwen
Manwe
Phantom
sally
Boro
Steve
Brin

[satansaloser2005]

The two I'm most worried about are Sally mostly because Phantom made some pretty good points(even if they're wrong) and Sally readily jumped in to join him. Looks like a possible attempt at bandwagoning to me.

Looks like a possible attempt at saving your own hide to me.


I'm having difficulty deciding, and for the sake of safety and sanity, I'm going to take a few minutes away and then I'll be back to vote.

[the phantom]

By the way, is there any sad trend that's happened in Werewolf games in my absence lynch-wise that would matter to me? (E.g. Steve always gets lynched first so cut him a break.)

[satansaloser2005]

By the way, is there any sad trend that's happened in Werewolf games in my absence lynch-wise that would matter to me? (E.g. Steve always gets lynched first so cut him a break.)

Hilariously, exactly that.

[Brinniel]

I feel a bit off about Manwe, but since that is only based on gut feeling alone, I don't feel inclined to vote for him toDay.

I do agree to some extent with phantom about Morsul. The tone of his posts from the very beginning is slightly suspicious.

I don't know if it'd do any good to put anymore candidates into play and end up spreading out the votes too much. Of those that already have a vote, I'm most inclined to vote Eomer. I don't like that he suggested a no-vote then suddenly voted Sally out of nowhere. I know it's Day 1, but surely there could've been a better pick than someone who hadn't really gotten a chance to post anything yet.

[the phantom]

Hilariously, exactly that.
Seriously? :eek: :D

[satansaloser2005]

Seriously? :eek: :D

As serious as a harpoon through the heart of a wise-cracking pale person. Which, incidentally, should also not happen at the end of toDay, for different reasons (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrZHPOeOxQQ).

[Boromir88]

I don't know if it'd do any good to put anymore candidates into play and end up spreading out the votes too much. Of those that already have a vote, I'm most inclined to vote Eomer. I don't like that he suggested a no-vote then suddenly voted Sally out of nowhere. I know it's Day 1, but surely there could've been a better pick than someone who hadn't really gotten a chance to post anything yet.

I was considering adding Lottie, because that post 57 looked creepily cheerful (taking out the IC banter)

So. Not bad for a Day 1. Amandil is out already, which narrows our choice for lynchings - if we even decide to lynch anyone at all. I think this is shaping up quite well. I'll be online...basically from here on out.

EDIT: xed with a lot of people. Also, lynchings tonight. Got it. ^.^

Which seems like she fully agreed with it from the start, yet call it revenge, I don't like her insinuation I'm playing Mr. Nice Boro by taking the popular choices.

Edit: tagging the 2nd quote as Lottie's Post 57

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark
The two I'm most worried about are Sally mostly because Phantom made some pretty good points(even if they're wrong) and Sally readily jumped in to join him. Looks like a possible attempt at bandwagoning to me.
Looks like a possible attempt at saving your own hide to me.
Yes, and there has been something a bit "off" about Morsul's posting since the start– at least, I was thinking about voting him even before I logged on again– only, I'm not sure about the wisdom of bringing another candidate into play *now*.

EDIT:'d x'd with many.

[Morsul the Dark]

Looks like a possible attempt at saving your own hide to me.


I'm having difficulty deciding, and for the sake of safety and sanity, I'm going to take a few minutes away and then I'll be back to vote.

Day one had to take what very little information and intuition(because that's helped me so much in the past) and try to get a least a semi-not random vote in.

As for my first page posts itwas mostly based on we had so few players and then got more last minute just wanted to double check that we still had 3KM also I was excited first game in about 2 years.

And to be perfectly honest Phantom's plan is brilliant and I had to read it a few times to get it, brain function is low before coffee.

x'ed a bunch

[Boromir88]

Ok I've been over in my head about either Lottie or Inzil enough...

++Lottie

[the phantom]

Wait, wait... Has Morsul not played in forever? If so I should probably pass him Day 1...

[Eönwë]

Of those that already have a vote, I'm most inclined to vote Eomer. I don't like that he suggested a no-vote then suddenly voted Sally out of nowhere. I'm inclined to agree with you on this. While I'm not too keen on Zil at the moment, I do agree with him about Eomer seeming suspicious.

[Galadriel55]

Wait, wait... Has Morsul not played in forever? If so I should probably pass him Day 1...

Forever and a Day. :D

[the phantom]

VOTES
Eomer ++ Sally
Pom ++ Inzil
Shasta ++ Steve
Inzil ++ Eomer
Lottie ++ Steve (2)
Morsul ++ Sally (2)
Boro ++ Lottie

VOTERS REMAINING
Nerwen
Manwe
Phantom
sally
Steve
Brin

[Brinniel]

++Eomer

For reasons stated in my previous post.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005
Looks like a possible attempt at saving your own hide to me.


I'm having difficulty deciding, and for the sake of safety and sanity, I'm going to take a few minutes away and then I'll be back to vote.
Day one had to take what very little information and intuition(because that's helped me so much in the past) and try to get a least a semi-not random vote in.

As for my first page posts itwas mostly based on we had so few players and then got more last minute just wanted to double check that we still had 3KM also I was excited first game in about 2 years.

And to be perfectly honest Phantom's plan is brilliant and I had to read it a few times to get it, brain function is low before coffee.

x'ed a bunch

The problem I have with this is that you didn't deny my "accusation" of you just trying to save your own skin.

However, given Eomer's flip flop about not voting (and then voting me, of all the scandalous notions), I believe I'll have to choose him over Morsul; it's simply too risky to spread the vote so close to deadline.

++Eomer

[the phantom]

++Lottie

[Galadriel55]

Deadline. Please Stop Posting.

[Eönwë]

So I suppose it's

++Eomer

edit: x-ed with mod.

[Nerwen]

Well, hey, looks like the universe is safe after all...:o:o:o

(Sorry, O Moddess– I really, really, honestly meant to vote this time– just lost track...)

[Galadriel55]

Steve's vote counts but anything after (?) does not.

Eomer is lynched with a clear majority of votes. Narration to come in a short while. I'll edit it into this post.

Nerwen and Manwe - please do not forget to vote toMorrow. (Nerwen, you are, of course, forgiven, but PLEASE vote toMorrow!)

Edit: whoops, never mind about editing the narration into the post! :o

[Galadriel55]

The crowd was gathered around the place where they found the dying man that morning. Accusations flew high, and chaos was among the people. One knew not what to do or how to proceed. Among the confusion stood an aged man, proud and silent. His eyes were thoughtful and his beard almost white. So wise the men deemed him to be that the people begged him, all as one, to give them counsel.

“Counsel you shall have from me,” he said, “and more”. All were now looking intently at him, even the youngsters, surveying his face. The more they looked the more wisdom the old man seemed to attain. “You have heard your neighbours speak among themselves,” the man began, and the people nodded their agreement. “You know what a true Faithful would say.” More nods from the people. “I know what a true Faithful would say.” Shouts of “Aye!” are heard. “Yet there are three among us who cannot possibly say it, for they are not of the Faithful. Therefore I say to you: think! Which people do not speak like the Faithful should? Which ones sound like frauds?” His eyes went around the circle of men and stopped on one face. The others followed his gaze.

“What say you to that?” someone asked the man.

“I say that there is no taint on me!” he replied with heat, and with a trace of fear. Men around him began to shout. He protested. He reasoned with them. He replied to one of them, but for each answer he gave ten new accusations were thrown at him. Finally, the old man said,

“Are you a King’s Man in disguise?”

“I am not!”

“But do you not think that with all the evidence these good people have gathered you cannot not be a King’s Man?”

“...I think... Therefore I am – according to you! To you and all the rest of you! What happened to my brothers? My brothers, who but a day ago would have risked their life for mine! And now I am a King’s Man!” His anger and resentment was beyond words. With a desperate gleam in his eyes, he raised his fists and looked about like an animal trapped in a cage. Someone laughed.

A stone whizzed through the air and hit him on the head. Another followed. The man hid his head under his arms. More stones flew. In a matter of ten minutes, it was done. And nothing happened. The villagers perceived now with horror that they have indeed killed one of their own, an innocent ordinary man. The old man closed his eyes.

ALIVE:

Morsul
Nerwen
Inzil
Lottie
Shasta
Manwe
PomPom
The Phantom
sally
Boro
Steve
Brin

DEAD:
G55, the hesitant King’s Man (modess) – stabbed on Night1
Eomer (ordo) – stoned on Day1


Night people, do your job. KMs, PM me your kill. Elendil, Anarion - names.

[Galadriel55]

The night was still and silent. Then, a door opened. The glow of a candle illuminated the street. The candle moved steadily along the street, to the town square. The square was surrounded by buildings and had a well in the middle. All the ways met there, people once said – which was true enough about the village.

The well creaked and groaned as a bucket of water was pulled up. The man with the candle unhooked it from the rope and stood it on the ground. Hearing footsteps behind him, he turned around to face the three approaching men. He laughed quietly. It had no mirth to it.

“What would such a noble man be doing outside at this hour?” one of the King’s Men asked sweetly.

“No less and no more than getting a drink of water, good sirs,” the man replied, with a hint of mockery in his voice.

“A drink of water? What a small thing to pay for with your life, lordling,” the second man said.

“At the least my life will be worth more than all of yours put together!” the man replied steadfastly.

“Your life? Life, say you? Life? Bah! It has no value. Of cheap things it is the cheapest,” the third King’s Man laughed. “Life! What is life? A chicken has life too, and yet you will not hesitate to eat it!” He laughed again. “Two men have lost their lives by our hands. Now it will be three. And there will be more – all of this beggarly brood, and more – all of the Elendili! What is their life but a thing bound to be lost?”

“You are a fool, if you speak so,” the lone man replied majestically. “You do not know how dear life is. You will not know – not until you lose it yourselves. The only reason my life is worth naught to you,” he continued, “is because by taking it you save your own. You are nothing but cowards! Craven!”

“If you think this will aid you, you are mistaken, and you will pay dearly for your mistake.” The King’s Men smiled as they advanced. The man stood silent and proud, as though he was not, weaponless and outnumbered, facing the last minutes of his life, but as though he was a king in the head of an army leading his men to victory.

They struggled with each other for a long time. But the man was one, when the King’s Men were three. Eventually they held him fast between them, and he, exhausted, could not escape. Two of the men gripped his arms and shoulders, so that he could not move, and the third forced his head into the bucket of water that the man himself raised from the well.

“Drink, man, drink!” the King’s Men taunted. “We would not be indebted to you!”

And he drank. He breathed in deeply. Once, twice. His body went limp. A pale mist rose over his body and floated slowly to the West, where the last stars still showed against the pale of dawn. The King’s Men stared at his body, unbelieving. How could a man who valued life so much part with it so easily? The stood for a few more minutes, and then walked away, still pondering, leaving the body untouched. When the villagers woke up, they found it lying there, with the face still in the water.

ALIVE:

Morsul
Nerwen
Inzil
Lottie
Shasta
Manwe
PomPom
The Phantom
sally
Steve
Brin

DEAD:
G55, the hesitant King’s Man (modess) – stabbed on Night1
Eomer (ordo) – stoned on Day1
Boro (gifted) – drowned on Night2


Night people - stop your nightly duties! Day people - begin your daily tasks!

[satansaloser2005]

Boro (gifted) – drowned on Night2

That is not permitted.

[the phantom]

Well crap. I suppose that means that stunt he was pulling in #20 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=676699&postcount=20) was legit, then? I was hoping that he was an Ordo doing a distraction, or perhaps a Baddie laying something false, but I feared he was totally on the level with his hinting, and obviously the baddies agreed....

*sigh*

Was he the dream chain, Shasta?

[Morsul the Dark]

Well, starting off with yesterday's result. I can't deny I'm relieved. I honestly thought Eomer was Erendil . His vote for Sally was so random based on a post with a promise to return later. I looked at everyone's lists and saw Sally on Zil's I Thought maybe zil was the dreamer revealing Sally to Eomer... apparently not the case.

I voted Sally for some suspicion but mostly that theory, which I tried to hide to protect Eomer. when the votes started coming in I hoped for an Isildur save(thankfully they must have been smarter than me.)

Now that doesn't mean I don't find Sally suspicious after all she's trying to call me out for protecting myself(kind of the point of an innocent.) I do however have no plans to vote her again at least today unless something crazy happens.

Voted fo Eomer
Eonwe
Brinn
ZIl
Sally

Brinn and Zil mention Eomer's flip-floppyness on voting as reasons I get that.
Eonwe kind of parrots their reasons.
Sally votes Eomer because the votes are too close she votes to save herself(that thing I'm supposedly evil for doing)

Now to last night's results:

Boro gone. A gifted. but which one? if I'm reading into the narration right it's Isildur? Well that stinks but it means That Elendil is still out there which would be good.

We'll have to see how this day progresses but things might be getting interesting...

[Loslote]

Well crap. I suppose that means that stunt he was pulling in #20 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=676699&postcount=20) was legit, then? I was hoping that he was an Ordo doing a distraction, or perhaps a Baddie laying something false, but I feared he was totally on the level with his hinting, and obviously the baddies agreed....

I read that post a dozen times just now, and I can't make heads or tails out of any hints in there. I might just be bad at hints, though. If it's something that'll help understand where we're at and what's going on, would you mind explaining it a bit for me?

[the phantom]

Boro gone. A gifted. but which one? if I'm reading into the narration right it's Isildur?
Yeah- that's definitely what I'm thinking.

And I seem to remember someone *ahem* being told that his idea was horrible- the idea about Isildur just going ahead and using his Gift on the Day 1 lynch, because he was probably innocent. Well... The lynch was innocent and Isildur is now dead.

Can I say it? Can I say it? :p

[Morsul the Dark]

I read that post a dozen times just now, and I can't make heads or tails out of any hints in there. I might just be bad at hints, though. If it's something that'll help understand where we're at and what's going on, would you mind explaining it a bit for me?

I was about to post this.

Are we trying to say Brinn is evil? Honestly that's the only thing that jumps out but that's part of an example. also well I supposed Boro could be the dreamer And a gifted but what are the chances?

but even if that was the case he voted Lottie...

EDIT X'ed with Phantom

[the phantom]

Lottie and Morsul, regarding post #20- assume that Boro dreamed about Brin and then reread the post. I believe you'll see it's suddenly shouting "Kill me! Break the chain!" Hence my appeal to Shasta to tell us if things are truly that bad, or if Boro was bluffing in order to preserve the Elendil dreams.

[Inziladun]

So, an ordo down and a Gifted. We don't know which Gifted, but neither do the baddies.

YesterDay, at two minutes before DL, Steve and Sally were tied with two votes, and Eomer had one (mine).

Brinn and Sally brought Eomer into the lead, and Steve put it away.

I wonder what might be the chances of Brinn, with either Sally or Steve (though probably not both) being packmates?

x/d with two phantoms and Morsul

[Loslote]

Lottie and Morsul, regarding post #20- assume that Boro dreamed about Brin and then reread the post. I believe you'll see it's suddenly shouting "Kill me! Break the chain!" Hence my appeal to Shasta to tell us if things are truly that bad, or if Boro was bluffing in order to preserve the Elendil dreams.

I could maybe see it being Boro the Dreamer hiding the message "Brinn is innocent" and knowing Elendil would understand. I fail to see anything about 'kill me' or 'break the chain'.

[Loslote]

Are we trying to say Brinn is evil?

Evil? If Boro did dream of Brinn, I'd say that post would mean that exact opposite - that Brinn is innocent.

[the phantom]

I could maybe see it being Boro the Dreamer hiding the message "Brinn is innocent" and knowing Elendil would understand.
You got it, Lottie. In a post talking about dream hints to Elendil he specifically says that it would be easy to hint, just do it like this, and then declares Brin innocent.

Yesterday I think I was strongly leaning towards "innocent ploy", but during the Night I reread and I just got very uncomfortable about it, thinking he may have actually given himself away.

The "kill me, break the chain" translation- I'm saying that's what the KMs would see within his post (do you follow me?), as setting yourself up as the dreamer (and therefore the dream target the following night) would clearly put oneself at risk if the KMs opted for the chain-breaking option as opposed to the blind shot at Elendil option.

[the phantom]

But anyway- I'm not going to stress any more about it. Perhaps Boro outwitted the KMs and it was strictly a bluff (a risky one as he was Gifted, but still a very good one if it protects both Elendil and the dreams). I'll hope for that until Shasta can tell us what vision he saw.

[Inziladun]

You got it, Lottie. In a post talking about dream hints to Elendil he specifically says that it would be easy to hint, just do it like this, and then declares Brin innocent..

That's something to think about, but I wouldn't take it as a given, at this point.

x/d with phantom

[Loslote]

The "kill me, break the chain" translation- I'm saying that's what the KMs would see within his post (do you follow me?), as setting yourself up as the dreamer (and therefore the dream target the following night) would clearly put oneself at risk if the KMs opted for the chain-breaking option as opposed to the blind shot at Elendil option.

Ahhhh. I thought you mean that Boro himself was actively and purposefully calling for his death, and that just made no sense. ;)

EDIT: xed with Zil

[satansaloser2005]

Okay. Calmer now. Although, hold on. Shasta's a gifted, and Boro too? If Phantom makes three, Gal deserves a prize from me four having the best taste in gifted selection.

EDIT: x'd since #142

[Morsul the Dark]

Evil? If Boro did dream of Brinn, I'd say that post would mean that exact opposite - that Brinn is innocent.

Indeed, reread it more carefully. Maybe I shouldn't play words with friends and WW at the same time concentrate morsul concentrate.

We'll have to wait for shasta to see if that was the case. if shasta was sent a dream about boro that would mean a wasted chance for us to get another role. revealed. Dang...

x'ed a bunch: phantom I'm seeing what you mean with the bluff that'd be an interesting decision. I don't know if I buy it though a gifted would be messing with fire like that. he must've known it would draw attention if that's what he was attempting to do, just hint.

[Inziladun]

I find it difficult to see a Borondil putting himself out like that on Day One, whether accidentally or with intent. I like to think we still have Elendil with us.

x/d with Morsul

[the phantom]

Shasta's a gifted, and Boro too? If Phantom makes three, Gal deserves a prize from me four having the best taste in gifted selection.
Ah, she must've based her Gifted selections on charm. :smokin:

So- the KMs are probably socially awkward types.

I'm interested in debating guilt/innocence based on this premise and seeing how long it can go before things get ugly...

[Loslote]

I find it difficult to see a B]Borondil[/B] putting himself out like that on Day One, whether accidentally or with intent. I like to think we still have Elendil with us.

Though, if he were Elendil, his oh-so-famous post makes a whole 'nother level of sense: Elendil specifically telling his Dreamer how to tell him the role of the Dreamed.

EDIT: xed with tp.

[Inziladun]

We'll have to wait for shasta to see if that was the case. if shasta was sent a dream about boro that would mean a wasted chance for us to get another role. revealed. Dang...

The assumption of failure here and accompanying "dismay" looks a bit odd.

x/d with tp and Lottie

[Loslote]

Though, if he were Elendil, his oh-so-famous post makes a whole 'nother level of sense: Elendil specifically telling his Dreamer how to tell him the role of the Dreamed.

EDIT: xed with tp.

Not to mention, specifically telling the Dreamer who *he* is.

EDIT: xed with Zil.

[the phantom]

I find it difficult to see a B]Borondil[/b] putting himself out like that on Day One, whether accidentally or with intent. I like to think we still have Elendil with us.
Oh, definitely. No way would he have done that as Elendil. Elendil doesn't have to do anything remotely risky. I realize there's the double-bluff angle, but given the importance of the role I don't think Boro would be one to make that particular bluff.

[the phantom]

Though, if he were Elendil, his oh-so-famous post makes a whole 'nother level of sense: Elendil specifically telling his Dreamer how to tell him the role of the Dreamed.
....
Not to mention, specifically telling the Dreamer who *he* is.
He definitely wouldn't do that, seeing as for all Elendil knows the person he sent his first dream to was a KM. Reveal to them and game over. He'd want to avoid identification at all costs at that stage- before Amandil has gotten a chance to check his recipient.

[Galadriel55]

Boro gone. A gifted. but which one? if I'm reading into the narration right it's Isildur?

Yeah- that's definitely what I'm thinking.

And I seem to remember someone *ahem* being told that his idea was horrible- the idea about Isildur just going ahead and using his Gift on the Day 1 lynch, because he was probably innocent. Well... The lynch was innocent and Isildur is now dead.

I did not specify which gifted it is and I am not planning to. I do not believe "drinking water" refers to either of the gifteds' gifts, and neither should you. The narration does not hint at the role, and is not supposed to - so I'm warning all of you now, before you all get crazy about some detail there and start arguing if it's Isildur or Elendil or Anarion: the story in the narration is irrelevant to Boro's role, so don't try to look for clues and hints in it.

[Morsul the Dark]

The assumption of failure here and accompanying "dismay" looks a bit odd.

x/d with tp and Lottie

BEcause what I really wanted to say would be censorred.

if Shasta dreamed Boro and boro was killed that means the KM anticipated Elendil's dream which in turn means they's is clever and I don't like clever wolves/KM they're tricky. To your point about the packmates in the voters I'd say probably only one KM voted Eomer... I just think it's too early for them to act too closely to each other this early. Though you are right Eonwe and Sally wereboth front runners before the last two minutes.

X'ed with moddess: see i was looking at his kingly stance and such not the drowning(though I get that now)

Well my hope for us just dropped a notch not to put down Isildur but his was probably the least needed power...(though useful in a pinch).

[the phantom]

The narration does not hint at the role, and is not supposed to
Bleh. Since he was weaponless I assumed not the Ranger and since he drowned I figured "Isildur in the Anduin".... but apparently not.

So in other words- possibly Elendil is dead? :rolleyes:

[Loslote]

He definitely wouldn't do that, seeing as for all Elendil knows the person he sent his first dream to was a KM. Reveal to them and game over. He'd want to avoid identification at all costs at that stage- before Amandil has gotten a chance to check his recipient.

Fair point. Unless Borendil had somehow managed to send his first dream to Shastarion, he would have had no way of knowing - and actually, we didn't even know Shastarion was Anarion yet. I'd forgotten that bit.

EDIT: xed with Morsul and tp.

[the phantom]

Well double crap- actually that makes some sense then. I just realized....

IF Boro assumed that the KMs would logically gun for Elendil until he was dead, then perhaps the safest thing to do would be to hint that you were a dreamer, because then it's a guarantee that you aren't Elendil!

Ugh...

Okay- I'm going to reread a bit...

[the phantom]

Question: If Elendil dies, does his dream still come through since it's not actually him dreaming?

[Brinniel]

I could maybe see it being Boro the Dreamer hiding the message "Brinn is innocent" and knowing Elendil would understand.
Honestly, I kept wondering why Boro kept referring to me as an example in those posts. Yet, if he were the dreamer, I think he'd find a more subtle way to hint his dream. So perhaps phantom is right about him possibly bluffing? Or maybe he didn't mean anything by it.

Btw, you people post way too much. I can never keep up. :p

[Galadriel55]

Bleh. Since he was weaponless I assumed not the Ranger and since he drowned I figured "Isildur in the Anduin".... but apparently not.

So in other words- possibly Elendil is dead? :rolleyes:

Possibly. :cool:

[Galadriel55]

Question: If Elendil dies, does his dream still come through since it's not actually him dreaming?

Yes. I guess he prays to the Valar before he is killed, so the dream will be sent regardless of the Night's outcome.

[Morsul the Dark]

Who I have no interest to vote for today:

Shasta
the phantom
Pom

Everyone else is undetermined/neutral.

Will explain these reasons after I eat.

Now if we are assuming his "example" was actually a hint can't we assume Brinn would be on this list as well. Or would Boro assume the first post was enough of a hint?

EDIT: x-ed Brinn and Modess

[the phantom]

Now if we are assuming his "example" was actually a hint can't we assume Brinn would be on this list as well.
No. She'd be OFF the list because he said she was innocent.

[Morsul the Dark]

No. She'd be OFF the list because he said she was innocent.

Ah but this was his "no interest in voting for" list

[the phantom]

Yes. I guess he prays to the Valar before he is killed, so the dream will be sent regardless of the Night's outcome.
Okay, so no matter what Shasta will have info. Well then- that's at least one leg of a plan accomplished.

[the phantom]

Ah but this was his "no interest in voting for" list
Oh, gotcha. Sorry, I thought you were talking about his "list of 3" thing.

Perhaps he thought it would be overkill at that point to point at Brin again by listing her innocent?

But going off of my more recent formulation- that it was just a bluff to cover up a Boro-Elendil- that actually makes me feel slightly better about the likelihood of him being Elendil (in the sense that he wasn't Elendil), as if it was intended as a sure-fire bluff "Look at me, I had a dream thus I can't possibly be Elendil" then surely he would've stuck with consistency and put Brin on the innocent list.

Seriously, that seems right, doesn't it? If he was bluffing for the sake of protection wouldn't he have stuck to his guns a little more obviously?

[Morsul the Dark]

Oh, gotcha. Sorry, I thought you were talking about his "list of 3" thing.

Perhaps he thought it would be overkill at that point to point at Brin again by listing her innocent?

But going off of my more recent formulation- that it was just a bluff to cover up a Boro-Elendil- that actually makes me feel slightly better about the likelihood of him being Elendil (in the sense that he wasn't Elendil), as if it was intended as a sure-fire bluff "Look at me, I had a dream thus I can't possibly be Elendil" then surely he would've stuck with consistency and put Brin on the innocent list.

Seriously, that seems right, doesn't it? If he was bluffing for the sake of protection wouldn't he have stuck to his guns a little more obviously?

I'd think so, we'll have shasta let us know what she found. I think we mentioned trying to just use innocent for gifteds to protect them but if she did dream boro and get his role that'd be surely useful. In fact if Boro wasn't the dreamed then I hate to while not conclusive that may point to boro being elendil(why dream yourself right?)

[Loslote]

Seriously, that seems right, doesn't it? If he was bluffing for the sake of protection wouldn't he have stuck to his guns a little more obviously?

I dunno, though. Would he have wanted to attract that much attention? After all, it's one thing to make the KMs think "oh, it looks like he might have been the Dreamer - better not kill him, he's probably not Elendil" and quite another to hand them information on a silver platter. If they didn't have a solid Elendil prospect, they'd likely go after a semi-known Dreamer more than a suspected potential one. I'd think he'd be more likely to make perceptible hints but lay low.

EDIT: xed with Morsul

[satansaloser2005]

I'd think so, we'll have shasta let us know what she found. I think we mentioned trying to just use innocent for gifteds to protect them but if she did dream boro and get his role that'd be surely useful. In fact if Boro wasn't the dreamed then I hate to while not conclusive that may point to boro being elendil(why dream yourself right?)

Psssst. Shasta's a sweet, handsome, psychic, wolf-catching boy child, not a wee lass like me.

Also, I'm thinking Elendil, like Isildur, can't affect himself with his gift. Accurate, yes/no? I may correct myself when I go poke at the admin thread, but I'm working on a post right now and am being quite lazy.

[Morsul the Dark]

Psssst. Shasta's a sweet, handsome, psychic, wolf-catching boy child, not a wee lass like me.
.

I think someone's told me that before too... misconception still stuck in my brain apparently.

[Nerwen]

Oh, gotcha. Sorry, I thought you were talking about his "list of 3" thing.

Perhaps he thought it would be overkill at that point to point at Brin again by listing her innocent?

But going off of my more recent formulation- that it was just a bluff to cover up a Boro-Elendil- that actually makes me feel slightly better about the likelihood of him being Elendil (in the sense that he wasn't Elendil), as if it was intended as a sure-fire bluff "Look at me, I had a dream thus I can't possibly be Elendil" then surely he would've stuck with consistency and put Brin on the innocent list.

Seriously, that seems right, doesn't it? If he was bluffing for the sake of protection wouldn't he have stuck to his guns a little more obviously?
I'd think so– and even without that, it would be a pretty risky bluff, even from a bold player like Boro. I mean, he couldn't know what the KM's priority would be.

–I've only skimmed the thread so far, so I'll have more to say in a moment.

EDIT:What the–? How did I put that heading in?

[the phantom]

If they didn't have a solid Elendil prospect, they'd likely go after a semi-known Dreamer more than a suspected potential one. I'd think he'd be more likely to make perceptible hints but lay low.
Yeah, and honestly that's a factor that I haven't quite figured out yet. In most of my KM thinking that I've tried I'm perpetually thinking Elendil is the only target, as his dreams simply must be silenced. But as an individual that has attracted far more than my share of very early (Night 1 or 2) dreams over the years, I think perhaps I'm hyper-threatened by a Seer role as a Baddie, and I can recall in the past Wolfpacks throwing me off my game a bit by not going with a Seer-first mentality.

So basically I always pay some sort of lip service to the possibility that maybe the Baddies are trying some other kill strategy, but I spend very little time actually following through on such alternatives to see how they would function. But let's try it....

So- let's assume for a moment that the Baddies believed Boro was not Elendil, but rather a dreamer. What then is their endgame? They must realize that by killing the dreamer they would not be killing Elendil (if their calculation was correct that is), thus what are they hoping for other than negating a dream? Elendil can still have another. And of course Shasta is still there waiting for them.

Okay- assume for a moment that the Baddies were correct and Boro was the dreamer and Brin is innocent. Then tonight she'll receive Ranger protection and she will dream, so they kill Shasta. Then tomorrow Brin reveals her dream, meaning we'll have 2 known innocents or 1 known inn and 1 known baddie.

With option number 1 the Ranger transfers protection to the dream target and the cycle repeats. Option 2 the baddies would take out Brin and Elendil would have to select a brand new recipient at random, which would possibly be a KM... And assuming a continuation of option 1 the dream would increasingly be more likely to be of the Ranger if he hadn't been dreamed of already, thus proceeding down the dream-chain killing would in fact kill him eventually thus freeing the KMs of his meddling.

Okay... I can maybe kinda see that strategy as an attempt to win, but wow would that have potential for danger. What if Boro and Brin are both Ordos? Then quite quickly Gifteds outnumber KMs and likely they could reveal with some amount of success, and the number of known innocents would simply be overwhelming.

I realize the odds of hitting Elendil would be lower assuming he did nothing to mark himself, but it still seems the logical choice, especially if you have some amount of confidence in your abilities to feel people out. If you hit him Night 2- bang. The game really turns.

[Morsul the Dark]

I'm wondering if Boro is Anarion. that could potentially be as bad if not worse than elendil.

If elendil died then no dreams which stinks but it Anarion died and Shasta reveals an innocent, the next dreamer of the chain, the KM can take them out forcing elendil to play russian roulette with dreamers...

[Loslote]

Alright, guys, I'd love to stick around longer, but I have class in nine hours, and work before and after that, and then more - a lot more - class after that, so I need sleeps now. I'll be online again around six and a half hours before DL. G'night!

[satansaloser2005]

Morsul doesn’t say much for a while, mostly bantery things, thanking people for clearing things up, and signing on for the three person list plan. He does note that he doesn’t think revealing Isildur so soon is a good idea (one that I strongly agree with), but otherwise he likes Phantom (and even explicitly says so in one post) and his plan.

An interesting thing to note is his reaction to me. Here is what Phantom and I said:

Morsul asking about how many KMs there are in #6 doesn't look the best. "I can't be a KM. I don't even know how many of us there are!"

I'm equally hesitant to believe any defense that is based off alleged naivete.

And here is Morsul’s response to our thoughts.

The two I'm most worried about are Sally mostly because Phantom made some pretty good points(even if they're wrong) and Sally readily jumped in to join him. Looks like a possible attempt at bandwagoning to me.

At no point in that post did I indicate I planned to vote for Morsul; rather, I said I was hesitant to believe “any defense” based off alleged lack of knowledge. And, no offense, Master Phantom, but those “pretty good points” were not points so much as brief observations with no conclusion made from them. It looks like a Morsul being afraid of suspicion more than me trying to bandwagon, given that Phantom moved right along and my comment was made in passing.

After that he votes for me (following Eomer's lead and creating a tie between me and Steve), defends his vote and other comments, compliments Phantom’s plan again, and then vamooses.

Making a note now that I’m having a gut feeling about ties between Steve and Morsul.

Well, starting off with yesterday's result. I can't deny I'm relieved. I honestly thought Eomer was Erendil . His vote for Sally was so random based on a post with a promise to return later. I looked at everyone's lists and saw Sally on Zil's I Thought maybe zil was the dreamer revealing Sally to Eomer... apparently not the case.

I’d actually like this explained to me, if possible. Dun didn’t vote for me. If he were revealing me to Eomer with his list post, wouldn't he have also found sense in voting for me?

I voted Sally for some suspicion but mostly that theory, which I tried to hide to protect Eomer. when the votes started coming in I hoped for an Isildur save(thankfully they must have been smarter than me.)

Clearly. But which was your reason, Morsul? Were you doing it because you thought I was guilty, because I was “bandwagoning” on you, or because you wanted to save Eomer? If it’s the third, why not just vote Steve? Oh, right. He looked fishy to you yesterDay but not vote-worthy. Why is that? If you were so concerned about saving Eomer, why go for a case that depended on Dun not following through with information instead of putting Steve further in the lead to protect Eomer?

After that, I am accused of being suspicious for suspecting him (which I officially do at this point in the thread). Brinn and Zil are given a pass for voting Eomer, but Steve and myself? Steve’s a bird and I was only voting to save myself, apparently. Once again, I must fault Morsul for not actually reading the words that are coming out of others’ fingers. Assuming he read my post, he would have seen this:

Given Eomer's flip flop about not voting (and then voting me, of all the scandalous notions), I believe I'll have to choose him over Morsul; it's simply too risky to spread the vote so close to deadline.

I cited the same reasons as the other three Morsul mentioned in his post, yet he disregards my post and claims I simply wanted to save myself. Fair enough, I suppose, as I have no other way to save myself from a lynch, but those weren’t my reasons, and I said so. Why so sore about me suspecting you, sir?

After that there’s a bunch of talking about Boro’s possible role (most of it just being speculation and/or that thing where we thought the narrations might actually mean stuff) and some mistaken gender identity and the like.

In short, a very touchy creature, that much is clear. A vague "suspicion" from me and he seems to think I’ll show up at his house with a pitchfork. Now that the passing sarcasm has turned into actual suspicion, I wonder how he’ll react. He certainly doesn’t seem like someone who has nothing to hide though, and his desire to push for my lynch rather than Steve’s (despite that being counterproductive to the goal he says he had) doesn’t make him look any better in my eyes. The important question is: how does he appear in the eyes of the king?

[the phantom]

Well, I was hoping Shasta might be around tonight, but I can't stick around much longer. I'm a bit sick and I'm starting to feel like I could fall asleep finally so I'm going to go ahead and get some rest...

See you all tomorrow.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I'm around. I'm just.... debating, if you will.

[satansaloser2005]

Mänwe agrees with the three person plan, speaks of it in more detail, has good points about the ranger’s role in said plan, and urges caution and discretion. He is against Isildur revealing, like me, but his points on the mechanics of the game are lessened by the little to no commentary on those playing in it. I’m hoping he’ll be around more toDay.

Wonderful Mänwe
(I now say Stanley)
Seeing what he could see
He had no real chances
To suspect the masses
And so he decided to flee

Steve mostly speaks of the game’s mechanical issues as well, though he does have bad feelings about Eomer (whom he eventually votes, for considering skipping the lunch -I mean lynch- for the Day) and me (for a general bad feeling). He barely votes in time for it to count, and it certainly didn’t seal Eomer’s fate, but I’ll give him consistency for yesterDay. Other than that, not much I can say.

The lynches! The lynches! Who will we believe?
Maybe the thoughts of articulate Steve?
The Night kills! The Night kills! Could Boro not stay?
At least for now let us not blame Eönwë

In both cases, I'm afraid I don't have a very strong pull toward guilt or innocence, at least based on their own merits. I promised our moddess a tune or seven(teen), and I always keep my promises, so there's that. Not a song so much as a rhyme, but it should do the trick, at least for now. Speaking of now, it’s sleepy time. I’d hoped to accomplish more, but at least I’ve crossed three people off my list, and I’ll hopefully have most of tomorrow to look at other people and see what I can see.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

See, the thing is, the person revealed to me was an innocent Phantom, so I could definitely see Boro being a dead Elendil. Which... is sad.

[satansaloser2005]

See, the thing is, the person revealed to me was an innocent Phantom, so I could definitely see Boro being a dead Elendil. Which... is sad.

Whichever gifted Boro was, it seems he was one we needed. Well, crap....

[Brinniel]

I'm wondering if Boro is Anarion. that could potentially be as bad if not worse than elendil.

If elendil died then no dreams which stinks but it Anarion died and Shasta reveals an innocent, the next dreamer of the chain, the KM can take them out forcing elendil to play russian roulette with dreamers...
If this were the case, then Elendil would have to choose between sending the dream to phantom or Shasta once more...so yeah, I see what you're getting at. But Elendil wouldn't even know for sure if Boro was the ranger (a 50/50 chance in this scenario). Of course the baddies cannot know the exact role of the gifteds either, so they'd have to take a risk to assume Anarion is dead.

It's good to know phantom is indeed innocent. Not that I had a reason to suspect him, but after previous games, I tend to have trust issues when it comes to him. :rolleyes:

[Pomegranate]

I will only be able to be around for the mid-Day today, will have to vote early and made it here just now.

I shall keep reading and re-reading, but initial thoughts:

Given that Shasta dreamed us an innocent phantom, this would mean that tp should have us an innocent from the first night, assuming that Elendil gave a dream then.

Votes: Brinniel and Nerwen made points on not adding new people to the voting. I'll need to check the times, but I don't like that point - if you don't believe anyone on the voting list is a KM, it's better to (potentially) lose a vote than to vote an innocent. And if you do, why keep mentioning that you only vote within the already-voted, since you'd then have other things to say as well.

What is fascinating is also Eomer's race to the top - three votes very close to the end, two from people who thus saved themselves and each other. I'm pondering whether it would be worth considering that Sally and Eonwe be packmates, or just to suspect that at least one of the three late-voters is a KM. I'll need to read more in order to elaborate.

Regarding the night-kill: I wonder why did Boro's plan not work? Did they, indeed, want to kill the dreamer (which would point to Brinniel indeed being innocent, for otherwise KM would know he's bluffing)? Did they see through his bluff (which might show that Brinniel's guilty, but not very clearly)? Did they ignore the bluff and want to kill him for some other reason? And why would that be?

[Nerwen]

Mmmn, well that was more than a minute, wasn't it? Sorry, real life happens to the best of us, you know.

So phantom was the Night One Dreamer, then? His earlier posting toDay is then some kind of elaborate ploy (but what do you expect?) Or did Elendil depart from the plan?

[Pomegranate]

Okay, all Nerwen, Brinn, sally and phantom suspected Morsul, yet the two first ones decided that it is unwise to bring a new candidate in? Whilst I can see that it is scary not to leave someone time to defend themselves, I'm not sure if the rush against Eomer was any better in that aspect. There clearly was support to the idea, no-one just started voting.

[Galadriel55]

I'd think so, we'll have shasta let us know what she found. I think we mentioned trying to just use innocent for gifteds to protect them but if she did dream boro and get his role that'd be surely useful. In fact if Boro wasn't the dreamed then I hate to while not conclusive that may point to boro being elendil(why dream yourself right?)

Another reminder: the gifteds' roles are not revealed, not in narrations and not in dreams.

Also, I'm thinking Elendil, like Isildur, can't affect himself with his gift. Accurate, yes/no? I may correct myself when I go poke at the admin thread, but I'm working on a post right now and am being quite lazy.

That's right. Elendil doesn't actually have any information himself, and no one dreams about him.



Today I'm coming home quite late and I'm afraid I'll only skim through the thread before DL. So if you have any other questions I'd ask you to please bold or highlight them so that I don't miss them accidentally.

[Pomegranate]

This is coming in bits now.

So, Eonwe suspects sally and Eomer, votes for Eomer (thus pretty much saving sally). What made you decide between the two?

Brinn, as already mentioned, suspects Morsul, yet votes for Eomer. Were you hoping that someone would take your lead and vote Morsul, so that you wouldn't be the first one? Or what?

Sally votes for Eomer though she too suspects Morsul. Is this mainly a revenge vote?

[Nerwen]

Votes: Brinniel and Nerwen made points on not adding new people to the voting. I'll need to check the times, but I don't like that point - if you don't believe anyone on the voting list is a KM, it's better to (potentially) lose a vote than to vote an innocent. And if you do, why keep mentioning that you only vote within the already-voted, since you'd then have other things to say as well.
??? :confused: Firstly, Pom, I didn't say "I don't believe anyone on the voting list is a KM". And secondly, I didn't say I "only vote with the already-voted" even once, let alone "keep mentioning" it. Where did all that come from?

What is fascinating is also Eomer's race to the top - three votes very close to the end, two from people who thus saved themselves and each other. I'm pondering whether it would be worth considering that Sally and Eonwe be packmates, or just to suspect that at least one of the three late-voters is a KM.
I don't think the circumstances require a Sally + Steve theory to explain them, no. It's always likely enough that a substantial bandwagon on an innocent includes a wolf. If I had to pick *one* of them right now, I think Steve would be my guess– though that's more a feeling at the moment (and, to be fair, I may be picking it up from other people– I need to read back over yesterDay).

Regarding the night-kill: I wonder why did Boro's plan not work? Did they, indeed, want to kill the dreamer (which would point to Brinniel indeed being innocent, for otherwise KM would know he's bluffing)? Did they see through his bluff (which might show that Brinniel's guilty, but not very clearly)? Did they ignore the bluff and want to kill him for some other reason? And why would that be?
*shrugs* Well, the usual, I suppose: he's always a dangerous player, and no doubt his death frames someone-or-other– but neither of those seem adequate, do they?
EDIT:X'd Since last post.

[Pomegranate]

Nerwen: this is what I was referring to. 'Keep mentioning' is too strong, I admit, that's just the impression I got since there were a few of you using the same point.

Yes, and there has been something a bit "off" about Morsul's posting since the start– at least, I was thinking about voting him even before I logged on again– only, I'm not sure about the wisdom of bringing another candidate into play *now*.

EDIT:'d x'd with many.

And on Boro-kill: indeed, a dangerous player, but given that phantom is innocent, if dangerous-ness would've been the criterion, surely KM would've gone that way.

But yeah, my brain seems to be a bit off at the moment - I'm feeling like catching a cold, and everything seems stuffy. I'll get some coffee and go to school for a bit, but after that I won't have too much time before I have to leave and vote - I'll keep pondering. Right now I have no idea who'd be my candidate.

[Loslote]

Nerwen: this is what I was referring to. 'Keep mentioning' is too strong, I admit, that's just the impression I got since there were a few of you using the same point.

Well, there were four minutes to DL at that point. Hardly enough time to reasonably expect a bandwagon to occur - that vote would probably have been a throw-away, so I can see Nerwen not wanting to do that.


And on Boro-kill: indeed, a dangerous player, but given that phantom is innocent, if dangerous-ness would've been the criterion, surely KM would've gone that way.

I believe the 'dangerousness' being referred to is his playing yesterDay, not his playing in general. He put himself out there a bit too much, hinted a bit too strongly, and the KMs picked up on it.

EDIT: Oh, and I'm not actually here. Just re-reading the thread quickly before I head out.

[Morsul the Dark]

Sally: Given Eomer's flip flop about not voting (and then voting me, of all the scandalous notions), I believe I'll have to choose him over Morsul; it's simply too risky to spread the vote so close to deadline.

I'm referring to the bolded line, I didn't ignore the rest just found that second reason far more telling.

And my theory clearly wasn't perfect it just seemed to me that Eomer's vote was too random to be random so I looked for a reason for the sudden vote. YEs I probably should've looked at Zil's Vote. Truth is didn't even occur to me, it should have but it didn't.

I'm in a position I'm all too familiar with lots of people suspect me, I'm innocent , but the more I defend it the more suspicious I am. The good old Morsul logic works for me every time.:rolleyes: I think that may be the real reason I was spared a few votes yesterday I tend to be an easy lynch down the road at a more critical time.

Moving on:

phantom is innocent, well That's good. I do hope Shasta is wrong on Boro's role. sadly we won't know unless the others reveal(a plan I do NOT advocate at all.)

Been rereading yesterday and today so far a few times. post more in a bit more pondering to do.

[Eönwë]

So, I did start a post a few hours ago, but then I had a random powercut so I lost it. Catching up now.

[Inziladun]

Lots to do today, but I'm trying to keep up.

Honestly, I kept wondering why Boro kept referring to me as an example in those posts. Yet, if he were the dreamer, I think he'd find a more subtle way to hint his dream. So perhaps phantom is right about him possibly bluffing? Or maybe he didn't mean anything by it.

This makes Brinn look a little better to me.

Right, so we apparently have an innocent Shasta, and an innocent phantom. I was leaning toward the latter anyway, just because that's the way he was coming across.

I still think it likely there was at least one evil vote behind Eomer's death. Doubtless, all will take it for granted it wasn't mine. :rolleyes: I'll try to make it a point to focus on the other three when I get a chance.

[Eönwë]

So, who was Boro?

Perhaps Boro outwitted the KMs and it was strictly a bluff (a risky one as he was Gifted, but still a very good one if it protects both Elendil and the dreams).
Well, the only gifted I could see pulling such a ploy that could lead to dying this early would be Amandil, which I could see potential hints for at the beginning of his first post (bolding mine):Amandil revealing, I think, would optimize his role. Since for all intents and purposes he's an ordo, but if he dies then the next in Amandil's line (at this point it would be Elendil) would be revealed to a randomly selected ordo. and here (boldding mine again): Aye Amandil saying "I saw an innocent" or "I saw a KM" would also be the same as everyone creating an Elendil list. Either way, as long as it's done uniformly and consistently, that way there is no confusion with relaying dreams to Elendil then let's go with it.
However, the fact that he didn't take it further or counter-reveal could suggest that he'd be quite worried that it'd backfire, which I would normally expect from an innocent that doesn't want to get the real gifted killed. However, since we know he's a gifted, it's possible that he was worried about getting lynched/killed himself, which would make him most likely to be either Elendil or Anarion, but Isildur is also very possible. Let's hope he's the latter. I will look into this more when I return in a few hours.

[Eönwë]

So, Eonwe suspects sally and Eomer, votes for Eomer (thus pretty much saving sally). What made you decide between the two?
Like Lottie, who also seemed to gain a sudden rush of votes at the end (suspicious? I'll need to look when I come back), she came into the game quite late, so I thought she deserved a chance to prove herself today.

[Eönwë]

Also, Sally, you're a terrible person for writing this:
As serious as a harpoon through the heart of a wise-cracking pale person.
I bet after posting it, yours was an evil laugh. Your other post was rather inconceivable, though.

[Morsul the Dark]

I've been trying to figure out Phantom's vote.

With Phantom clearly innocent I'm wondering if he saw something we didn't... Phantom really only mentions Lottie once saying her post #57 is odd. Then goes and votes her. May have just been a day 1 throw away vote but otherwise I can't see a reason.

x'ed with Eonwe 3x

[Pomegranate]

Lottie-votes are hardly suspicious, as the two people who cast them are known innocents (Boro and phantom).

[Morsul the Dark]

I'm not saying they're suspicious. I'm wondering what they saw that was suspicious enough for a vote. Lottie looks fine to me so far but I'm wondering if I'm missing something they saw is my point.

[Pomegranate]

Sorry, Morsul, I was reacting to Steve's post rather than yours ^^

Agh. I should be voting pretty much now, and I feel I'm going to be badly off due to the fact that we haven't heard of phantom and his dream (or none?) yet. I think I'll go for one of the three late Eomer-voters, for I don't think I have time and energy to go through everyone today and I'm pretty sure there's at least one KM in there.

The problem is, all of them look decent to me at the moment - or at least reasonable in the way they've seemed reasonable to me before. However, there's something in sally's behaviour that's fishy - the same fishy as always or a wolfy one, I dare not say, but fishy anyways.

Indeed, Morsul was relatively jumpy. However, I feel like that's something that is easy to grab as a wolf and start elaborating from that. And, not knowing Morsul outside of this game, his logic would still seem valid enough, and I feel like sally's tearing it apart just for the sake of the process. Also there was a lot of suspicion towards Morsul yesterday - maybe sally's following from that, assuming that it will be easy enough to get people to hunt Morsul down.


Clearly. But which was your reason, Morsul? Were you doing it because you thought I was guilty, because I was “bandwagoning” on you, or because you wanted to save Eomer? If it’s the third, why not just vote Steve? Oh, right. He looked fishy to you yesterDay but not vote-worthy. Why is that? If you were so concerned about saving Eomer, why go for a case that depended on Dun not following through with information instead of putting Steve further in the lead to protect Eomer?


Did you read what Morsul wrote? He assumed that Eomer was a seer and you were guilty, these two parts of the same set of interpretations? It would make sense to vote for you then instead of Steve. Two relatively reachable goals at once - saving the seer, lynching a KM.

[Pomegranate]

On Eonwe I can't really get a good read, but he's definitely less suspicious than sally. And Brin, I feel like I'd need to understand the situation with Boro and the KM and why exactly was Boro killed a lot more to decide that Brin is either innocent or quilty, though I feel like there's a hint there for either. My brain just can't get around it, and even though I try and try to grasp it is escapes. I think I'm leaning to voting for sally pretty strongly, but I'll have a moment still, so if someone has any reasonable objections or points to make about it, I'll listen before I cast my vote, which will happen in about 30 minutes.

[Morsul the Dark]

Agh. I should be voting pretty much now, and I feel I'm going to be badly off due to the fact that we haven't heard of phantom and his dream (or none?) yet.
.

I think last night's dream went to Shasta. Unless I read it wrong:

See, the thing is, the person revealed to me was an innocent Phantom, so I could definitely see Boro being a dead Elendil. Which... is sad.


Which would mean in phantom's chain he'd be the dreamer tonight if hopefully Boro was isildur and not Elendil or Anarion. in which case it's a tossup which I hopes comes heads up for the villiage not the other way around.

[Pomegranate]

thus the first night's should've gone to phantom, but i'll leave that for someone else to explain. I'll have to go, so ++sally, do catch some baddies while i'm gone, please!

[the phantom]

Awake and feeling much better than yesterday. Trying to get caught up...

[Morsul the Dark]

So Nerwen posts a bit discussing Phantom's plan.

A while later posts her list then mentions suspicions on me but doesn't vote me because it'd be bad to bring another candidate forward.

Ends up not voting at all.

Not much to go on rather careful and with no vote nothing to really discuss about her. the play first day was very clean. As I've said before almost too clean.

[Brinniel]

Votes: Brinniel and Nerwen made points on not adding new people to the voting. I'll need to check the times, but I don't like that point - if you don't believe anyone on the voting list is a KM, it's better to (potentially) lose a vote than to vote an innocent. And if you do, why keep mentioning that you only vote within the already-voted, since you'd then have other things to say as well.
I disagree. For one, I never said I didn't suspect anyone already on the voting list...obviously I'd never vote for someone I didn't suspect. And I mentioned it because I do believe spreading the votes out too much unnecessarily is a bad idea. When the votes are spread out too much it makes it easier to end with a multiple person tie and I hate ties. Now if someone doesn't suspect anyone already voted for, yes it's worth spreading out the votes to bring in a candidate you actually suspect. But if you suspect multiple people, why not vote for the player among your suspects that has already been voted for and increase the chances that one of your suspects gets lynched.

Brinn, as already mentioned, suspects Morsul, yet votes for Eomer. Were you hoping that someone would take your lead and vote Morsul, so that you wouldn't be the first one? Or what?
Morsul was one among three suspects I listed in my post. What makes you think I suspected Morsul more than Eomer? Because I didn't.

[the phantom]

See, the thing is, the person revealed to me was an innocent Phantom, so I could definitely see Boro being a dead Elendil. Which... is sad.
Yeah...
So phantom was the Night One Dreamer, then? His earlier posting toDay is then some kind of elaborate ploy (but what do you expect?) Or did Elendil depart from the plan?
Check the "elaborate ploy" option. Sorry if that's annoying, but I just wanted to float as many kill strategies as possible to see if people would toss out other interesting possibilities, or if anyone would agree with one of them in such a way that indicated a bit too much familiarity. Additionally I wanted to see what reactions would be to Boro being assumed to be various Gifteds (if the KMs hoped he was Elendil but then he appeared only to have been Anarion would perhaps a trace of disappointment leak through?). Etc. etc....

Yeah, Night 1 I dreamed of Brin. :rolleyes: Thus Boro was almost certainly Elendil, and frankly he had me squirming from the very start. His "I dreamed Brin innocent" bit I found both helpful and perplexing, as there was no possible way he could've known to trust me. Had I been a KM he was totally outing himself to me on the first day!

Really the only explanation I could think of was recalling things he'd said in previous villages, along the lines of- "You may as well just trust Phantom from the start, as he can be quite beneficial. If you're wrong and he's evil, you're screwed anyway, so you may as well trust him and hope for the best."

So in light of such comments what he was doing made perfect sense, but it was still a bit annoying.

So yeah- that's why I was most definitely concerned with passing info to Elendil, because I had the info. But naturally I wasn't about to appear as if I had info, particularly after I came to suspect that Boro was purposefully pretending to be a dreamer so as to clearly not be Elendil in the eyes of the KMs, which frankly was a pretty good idea. (Unfortunately this group of KMs seems not to be operating within the restraints of logic. :rolleyes: )

Anyway, Shasta- thanks for giving me that time at the beginning to run my little games. I sort of figured you'd sit back and watch for a while since you held the trump cards...

[Morsul the Dark]

So confirmed innocents:
Phantom
Shasta
Brinn

Leaves :
Nerwen
Inzil
Lottie
Manwe
PomPom
sally
Eonwe

3km 2 hidden gifteds. Looking like Elendil is down... but we have two protectors left so yay for that...

I suppose if there's one tiny silver lining. If Elendil is down and Anarion is still around that frees him or her to defend who they'd like instead of following a predictable pattern which might put some pressure on the KM.

[satansaloser2005]

Did you read what Morsul wrote? He assumed that Eomer was a seer and you were guilty, these two parts of the same set of interpretations? It would make sense to vote for you then instead of Steve. Two relatively reachable goals at once - saving the seer, lynching a KM.

I can certainly understand wanting to keep Eomer's role under wraps, but the alleged logic of this falls apart under further inspection.

1. Dun put Sally on his three person list. Fair enough. Everyone had a list, and everyone's bound to be on one or two people's lists at least, so no problems here.

2. Eomer voted for Sally. The logic holds up so far. If Eomer is (or rather was) the seer, it makes absolute sense for him to vote for a guilty Sally if Dun had her on that list.

3. Dun voted for Eomer. If Dun received a dream, he'd know the results, but not who sent it to him, so there's little chance he would know not to vote for Eomer. However, if he's the one who received the dream and it said Sally was guilty, why wouldn't he vote for Sally? Therein lies my biggest problem with the way Morsul is explaining his motives. He's claiming to act upon information that the person who had it didn't even act upon.

4. Morsul voted for Sally. As far as his suspicions go, that's fine, as he had voiced his suspicion of both Sally and Steve, and Eomer wasn't actually in too much danger at the time, so it's not a huge issue, but when he further "explains" his vote, he refers to his vote as "try to get a least a semi-not random vote in." If he were basing it off the dream chain listed above, it wouldn't be random at all.

So yes, him voting for me kept Eomer "safe" for the Day (except for the part where Eomer was lynched at the end of it). However, voting for me rather than Steve also gave Steve a better chance of survival. It's often convenient for a villain to suspect their fellows, yet in the end decide an innocent is a better lynch option. It's not a new trick.

Am I ready to say without doubt that Steve and Morsul are fellows? Certainly not, but if one turns out to be against us, I'll not be surprised if the other is as well. Morsul's quasi-guilty behavior is definitely not a notion that should be tossed aside as Pom is doing, which is another concern entirely.



Not x'd, but I do need to read everything since the quoted post in more detail.

[Brinniel]

Well, it sounds rather likely now that Boro was Elendil, which is certainly disappointing. If not, then phantom or me would probably receive the next dream, so by toMorrow (assuming both of us survive), we will probably know Boro's identity for sure.

On the bright side, at least the village has three known innocents and the baddies can't eliminate us all at once. Plus, they still have the ranger to worry about.

Btw, after mentioning ties in my last post, I just noticed this in the rules:

In case of a tie, neither party is lynched.
Which is an interesting concept I don't believe I've seen before. Certainly better than having both parties lynched, though a no-lynch isn't exactly helpful either. I suppose if multiple candidates are neck and neck, and a player doesn't think any of them are guilty and putting another candidate into play would be a throwaway (or a KM wants to save a packmate), creating a tie could prove useful...though also risky.

[Morsul the Dark]

"try to get a least a semi-not random vote in." If he were basing it off the dream chain listed above, it wouldn't be random at all.
.

I wasn't 100% on the idea hence semi-not-random. It was just the only thing I could see that would explain his vote at all. And you're right I Should have looked at Zil's vote but I didn't because I didn't think to. Luckily I'm not any police force, solve rates would be awful.

Sally's suspicions of me today seem much better than yesterday. and she's right Pom sort of tossed them aside fairly easily... a bit suspicious. (I know someone not suspecting me is more suspicious than the person who does, welcome to my brain)

[Inziladun]

I wasn't 100% on the idea hence semi-not-random. It was just the only thing I could see that would explain his vote at all. And you're right I Should have looked at Zil's vote but I didn't because I didn't think to. Luckily I'm not any police force, solve rates would be awful.

I find the last sentence amusing. I actually have solved one today, with what seems like 100 other things going on. ;)

I'm glad to see the focus on Boro has eased somewhat. Yes, it was important to take a look at what might have made him a target, but that only takes us so far.
It's only useful in ferreting out baddies if he said something that we can narrow down as alarming to one in particular. Otherwise, they went after him for A. Looking like Elendil; or B. Looking like a Gifted.

Anyway, I think YesterDay's votes are more helpful. Also, just skimming the last few hours, I think people have some interesting points about Pom. Some of her suspicions look rather forced.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[the phantom]

As soon as I get back I'll do a look at the voting yesterday and give impressions...

[satansaloser2005]

Do we have any idea if Mänwe will be back before deadline? I'd hate for someone to be modfired so early in the game. :confused:

[the phantom]

Okay, general thoughts on voting alone. First, the votes-

VOTES
Eomer ++ Sally
Pom ++ Inzil
Shasta ++ Steve
Inzil ++ Eomer
Lottie ++ Steve (2)
Morsul ++ Sally (2)
Boro ++ Lottie
Brin ++ Eomer (2)
Sally ++ Eomer (3)
Phantom ++ Lottie (2)
Steve ++ Eomer (4)

DID NOT VOTE
Nerwen
Manwe

Okay, when I write down some basic assumptions regarding the vote, I find most of them are ridiculously obvious (which in itself says something perhaps). But I'll say them anyway just so you see the evolution of my thinking.

If one of Steve or Sally is a KM it is unlikely that Brin, Boro, and Phantom are since they didn't seem concerned enough about their tied lead that they sided with the opposite choice. But well- all three of those are known innocents. Duh.

That means the only people up for consideration in the late stages of voting would be Sally and Steve then, who both voted Eomer. BUT they have the obvious excuse that they themselves were threatened. Self-preservation is perfectly logical for an innocent.

Which means in the end that voting alone tells us nothing of Eomer's lynch (the actual execution which was secured late in the day), meaning that early voting is the place we are forced to look for clues...

--After Lottie elevates Steve to the top position, Morsul places Sally into a tie.

--After Eomer votes Sally he is given a vote by Inzil potentially under the assumption that Sally could justifiably help retaliate given her threatened position.

--When Lottie gives Steve his second vote there are 4 candidates with one vote each, which makes it somewhat probable that a KM has a vote, therefore it is logically time to send one innocent into the lead. We know the KM with a vote is not Eomer, so it has to be either Inzil or Sally.

So, given the above three observations, we are left with three basic hypotheses-

1) If Steve is then Morsul is.
2) If Sally is then Inzil is.
3) If Inzil and/or Sally is then Lottie is.

Now obviously a single day of voting can hardly be deemed overwhelming evidence, particularly with Manwe and Nerwen not voting at all (they could both be KMs thus rendering all theories void). But still- we have to start forming theories somewhere.

I'm off to work, but I'll be rereading Day 1 and today if at all possible with those potential links in mind and see if anything jumps out and sabotages them or corroborates them....

(Should be able to check in periodically from work, and I'll be off in time to vote, no worries there.)

[Morsul the Dark]

I can certainly understand wanting to keep Eomer's role under wraps, but the alleged logic of this falls apart under further inspection.

1. Dun put Sally on his three person list. Fair enough. Everyone had a list, and everyone's bound to be on one or two people's lists at least, so no problems here.

2. Eomer voted for Sally. The logic holds up so far. If Eomer is (or rather was) the seer, it makes absolute sense for him to vote for a guilty Sally if Dun had her on that list.

3. Dun voted for Eomer. If Dun received a dream, he'd know the results, but not who sent it to him, so there's little chance he would know not to vote for Eomer. However, if he's the one who received the dream and it said Sally was guilty, why wouldn't he vote for Sally? Therein lies my biggest problem with the way Morsul is explaining his motives. He's claiming to act upon information that the person who had it didn't even act upon.

4. Morsul voted for Sally. As far as his suspicions go, that's fine, as he had voiced his suspicion of both Sally and Steve, and Eomer wasn't actually in too much danger at the time, so it's not a huge issue, but when he further "explains" his vote, he refers to his vote as "try to get a least a semi-not random vote in." If he were basing it off the dream chain listed above, it wouldn't be random at all.

So yes, him voting for me kept Eomer "safe" for the Day (except for the part where Eomer was lynched at the end of it). However, voting for me rather than Steve also gave Steve a better chance of survival. It's often convenient for a villain to suspect their fellows, yet in the end decide an innocent is a better lynch option. It's not a new trick.

Am I ready to say without doubt that Steve and Morsul are fellows? Certainly not, but if one turns out to be against us, I'll not be surprised if the other is as well. Morsul's quasi-guilty behavior is definitely not a notion that should be tossed aside as Pom is doing, which is another concern entirely.



Not x'd, but I do need to read everything since the quoted post in more detail.

See this while incorrect conclusion makes sense to me. If I was Sally I'd suspect me. It was my careless research that's at fault but there it is. Does this clear Sally for me? No but this looks like a lot of work just to throw an innocent under the bus for a KM.

I'm looking through Pom's posts righ now but so far, one thing that's interesting is his suspicion of Brinn, granted this is before phantom confirms her innocence but for the most part it seemed most agreed she probably was innocent based on Boro's post.

X'ed phantom

[Inziladun]

If one of Steve or Sally is a KM it is unlikely that Brin, Boro, and Phantom are since they didn't seem concerned enough about their tied lead that they sided with the opposite choice. But well- all three of those are known innocents. Duh.

How is Brinn a known innocent? I get the argument that Boro may have been hinting at that, but it's just a possibility at this point.

That means the only people up for consideration in the late stages of voting would be Sally and Steve then, who both voted Eomer. BUT they have the obvious excuse that they themselves were threatened. Self-preservation is perfectly logical for an innocent.

Self-preservation is equally an interest of baddies. Just saying.

Which means in the end that voting alone tells us nothing of Eomer's lynch (the actual execution which was secured late in the day), meaning that early voting is the place we are forced to look for clues...

--After Lottie elevates Steve to the top position, Morsul places Sally into a tie.

--After Eomer votes Sally he is given a vote by Inzil potentially under the assumption that Sally could justifiably help retaliate given her threatened position.

--When Lottie gives Steve his second vote there are 4 candidates with one vote each, which makes it somewhat probable that a KM has a vote, therefore it is logically time to send one innocent into the lead. We know the KM with a vote is not Eomer, so it has to be either Inzil or Sally.

It's also possible that none of the KM's were seriously in trouble; just that Eomer got a vote or two from them because he was in peril and innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

How is Brinn a known innocent? I get the argument that Boro may have been hinting at that, but it's just a possibility at this point.

She's a known innocent because Phantom received information about her on Night One, dear.

[Morsul the Dark]

How is Brinn a known innocent? I get the argument that Boro may have been hinting at that, but it's just a possibility at this point.

.

Phantom said this:
Yeah, Night 1 I dreamed of Brin. Thus Boro was almost certainly Elendil, and frankly he had me squirming from the very start. His "I dreamed Brin innocent" bit I found both helpful and perplexing, as there was no possible way he could've known to trust me. Had I been a KM he was totally outing himself to me on the first day!

So did you just happened to miss it or trying to avoid it? probably the first I know the feeling:p

EDITX'ed with Sally

[Inziladun]

She's a known innocent because Phantom received information about her on Night One, dear.

So did you just happened to miss it or trying to avoid it? probably the first I know the feeling:p

Ah. Missed that. Sorry. That's what sometimes comes from a quick skim.

[Loslote]

I'm looking through Pom's posts righ now but so far, one thing that's interesting is his suspicion of Brinn, granted this is before phantom confirms her innocence but for the most part it seemed most agreed she probably was innocent based on Boro's post.

And yet, that very fact speaks to the innocence of an examination of Brinn - since most people thought she was innocent, it would be fruitless for a wolf to try to raise suspicion against her - especially so early in the game, when there are so many other players who would be easier to frame.

EDIT: xed with Zil

[Morsul the Dark]

And yet, that very fact speaks to the innocence of an examination of Brinn - since most people thought she was innocent, it would be fruitless for a wolf to try to raise suspicion against her - especially so early in the game, when there are so many other players who would be easier to frame.

EDIT: xed with Zil

That is an interesting thought. Didn't think of it that way. Still not an inkling of who to vote for. Sally seems pretty innocent, Pom is more suspicious but Lottie makes a good point.

Most others don't have enough to go on yet. Will look at Eonwe seemed a tad off yesterday maybe I'll see something new in yet another read.

[satansaloser2005]

Players I will not vote for toDay:
Shasta (known innocent/gifted)
Phantom (known innocent)
Brinn (known innocent)
Sally (innocent and also too shiny and adorable to kill)
Mänwe (he may be modfired anyway, and what he has said isn't lynch-worthy)
Nerwen (no worries about her at present, whatever that means, and she's not around, so I'd like to not risk it)


Players who remain:
Morsul
Dun
Lottie
Pom
Steve


I really, really don't like how Pom shoved aside my suspicions of Morsul, as well as her attitude toward Brinn and Lottie. As of this moment, I'd say my top suspects are Morsul, Pom, and Steve, though I'll admit that my suspicion of them as a whole would lessen slightly if one of the others were shown to be innocent. I can't get any clear read on Lottie, and Dun isn't ringing any bells, so, at least as of now, I have my top three suspects (Pom and Morsul being a higher priority than Steve at present) and will be voting accordingly. If someone has a better idea, I'll gladly listen to it.


And now I need to go make dinner. Let's hope I don't burn my hand again. Seriously, I'm a clumsy cupcake....



EDIT: x'd since my last

[Mänwe]

I'm here now-thankfully its the weekend. Thoughts to come soon!

[Loslote]

Innocent as the bright morning star or something poetical like that
Lottie
Shasta
tp
Brinn

I see no *reason* to suspect
Manwe
Nerwen
Sally
Pom

I see no reason to suspect...but feel like I maybe ought to
Zil
Morsul
Steve

Unless I start seeing actual reasons for suspicion, I'll have to go with one of the three from the latter group. I don't like voting on 'well, he feels like he maybe might be a wolf...' so I'll be looking through the thread, seeing if I can't maybe find any more substantial reasons for voting. I don't have anything else to do until DL, so I should be around.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I said I was here and reading, and then got pulled away. Let me get a few thoughts in order real fast.

[Inziladun]

And yet, that very fact speaks to the innocence of an examination of Brinn - since most people thought she was innocent, it would be fruitless for a wolf to try to raise suspicion against her - especially so early in the game, when there are so many other players who would be easier to frame.

Certainly there were other targets for a Pomwolf, but to seemingly discount her as a threat based on her suspicion of Brinn seems unwarranted.

As a matter of fact, I still feel Pom is somewhat dodgy and her suspicions seem forced. Barring new developments, that's probably where my vote will go.

[Loslote]

Certainly there were other targets for a Pomwolf, but to seemingly discount her as a threat based on her suspicion of Brinn seems unwarranted.

Certainly not - but as an argument against Pom, her suspicion of Brinn is not a particularly valid one. I haven't really seen much evidence against Pom besides the 'well, she feels evil' argument I've been trying to avoid. Moreover, she does not, in fact, feel evil when I read her posts, so, while I'm making no arguments for her innocence, I'm also not blindly accepting any faulty arguments for her guilt.

[Inziladun]

Then again, there are Sally and Steve's late votes for Eomer. Hm.

x/d with Lottie

[Inziladun]

Certainly not - but as an argument against Pom, her suspicion of Brinn is not a particularly valid one. I haven't really seen much evidence against Pom besides the 'well, she feels evil' argument I've been trying to avoid. Moreover, she does not, in fact, feel evil when I read her posts, so, while I'm making no arguments for her innocence, I'm also not blindly accepting any faulty arguments for her guilt.

Like I said, I just think the suspicions don't look genuine.

So to you, who does have a "valid" case against them?

[Loslote]

So to you, who does have a "valid" case against them?

No one. That's my problem. :rolleyes:

[Brinniel]

Pom earlier discusses her disapproval of Nerwen and me not wanting to spread out the lynch candidates and I don't like how she jumped to conclusions (saying several people pushed aside their suspicion of Morsul to vote Eomer instead...you can have multiple suspects, you know). However, I'm not sure that's cause for her to be a baddie. And I wouldn't think a baddie would feel the need to be so forceful in her opinions at this point.

If Pom is innocent, I could see as a prime target for a baddie to try to get her lynched. After all, she directs some suspicion toward a now known innocent and makes some illogical statements. That could easily give reason for someone to vote her. Plus, she won't be around for the rest of toDay, so she can't even defend herself from suspicion. So yeah, I might watch those attempting to bandwagon against her. So far that would be Inzil and Morsul.

Of course, this would all be invalid if Pom is in fact a baddie. But regardless, I'd rather not vote for her because I would like to hear from her more toMorrow.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Pomegranate

#28 - Posts about what Amandil and Elendil should do. Sides with an Amandil reveal and random lists Day 1. This -
And just in case - if a KM decides to do a fake-reveal, Amandil, at least counter that! Otherwise we're stuck with a lot of problematicly full trust to a KM, and potentially to a chain of people after that.
-strikes me as odd and I'm not sure why, unless it's just that a KM revealing as Amandil that day would have been incredibly suicidal.

#31 - more about dream lists.

#34 - defends him/herself to Inzil. This -
There is a reason why I haven't posted a list yet, that's because I don't want everyone to just jump blindly in
- confuses me; what harm was there at this point in time to actually doing what you wanted everyone else to do, post a list? This almost looks overly concerned with wanting to go with whatever the majority wants.

#38 - more about dreams.

#45 - wants to vote. I agree.

#75 - finally posts list.

#84 - posts a feeling-list about everyone. Is pretty noncommittal about everyone except Nerwen and Inzil. The interesting part to me is that Pom says [/b]Inzil[/b] looks too "explanatory", basing part of this on this quote by Inzil -
All right. I'm just looking for holes in this deal, before everyone just jumps in.
- which looks eerily like something Pom him/herself said earlier. This brand of hypocrisy always makes me raise an eyebrow.

#191 - This bit, I'm bothered by.
Votes: Brinniel and Nerwen made points on not adding new people to the voting. I'll need to check the times, but I don't like that point - if you don't believe anyone on the voting list is a KM, it's better to (potentially) lose a vote than to vote an innocent. And if you do, why keep mentioning that you only vote within the already-voted, since you'd then have other things to say as well.

It's actually pretty acceptable to not spread out votes late in the day; any baddies that have saved their votes have that much more control of the lynch. Also, this is before phantom mentioned he'd dreamed of Brinn.

#193 - reiterates suspicion of not wanting to bring in a new candidate for lynch close to DL.

#195 - this is the second time Pom has mentioned people suspecting Morsul but voting Eomer.

#197 - explains him/herself to Nerwen (and backtracks a bit?) Thinks if Boro was killed for being dangerous, then the KMs should have rightly gone for phantom.

#208 - states intention to vote for one of the later Eomwer-voters in general, and Sally in particular. Seems to be mostly because Sally suspected Morsul earlier, and Pom thinks she's just jumping on other people's suspicions. But didn't Sally suspect Morsul yesterday too? Something to look into.

#209 - considers Eonwe to be much less suspicious than Sally.

#210 - votes Sally.



Conclusions -

There's definitely something weird there. I'll need to go back and see what Sally has said, but it seemed to me that Pom was pushing her a bit hard on not really much. In addition, I feel like his Day 1 vote for Inzil was based on a double standard. I wouldn't be opposed to lynching him today, but I do want to look at some other people.

[Inziladun]

I have to leave for a bit, and should have time to consider the vote.

I do think either Sally or Steve could well be evil. Of the two, Sally has been pretty sensible it seems the past few hours, so of the twain I'd prefer Steve as the better bet. Like I said though, I wouldn't be opposed to Pom either.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally

#51 - banter.

#88 - It's always hard to tell what's banter with Sally, but she makes a point about Eomer here -
Eomer, your three theoretical guilty parties are all young lads and yet, instead of voting for one of them, you attempt to sink your noose into the neck of a wee lass whose only apparent crime is saying hello? You hooligan. A pox on you and possibly your king.
A wrong point, as it turns out, but she did have at least a reason to vote Eomer.

#93 - weighs in on Isildur possibly using his power today - is vehemently against it.

#94 - hopes Inzil is all right. :)

#99 - agrees with Phantom about Morsul -
I'm equally hesitant to believe any defense that is based off alleged naivete.

#110 - banter.

#114 - banter.

#116 - suspicious of Morsul being suspicious of Sally for being suspicious of him.

#118 - replies to Phantom, letting him know Eonwe is often lynched first.

#121 - banter.

#131 - Votes Eomer, after replying to Morsul. Hmm.
The problem I have with this is that you didn't deny my "accusation" of you just trying to save your own skin.

However, given Eomer's flip flop about not voting (and then voting me, of all the scandalous notions), I believe I'll have to choose him over Morsul; it's simply too risky to spread the vote so close to deadline.

The problem I have with this is, okay, Morsul didn't specifically deny trying to save himself (by suspecting you). ...So? Whether he did or didn't is immaterial, considering how much weight saying so would carry (read: none.) Also, I can buy not spreading the votes so close to deadline, but had you even looked at any of the other possible lynch candidates? I'm sorry, Sally, but your vote does kind of look opportunistic.

#139 - banter.

#153 - flirtatious banter.

#178 - banter and rule clarification.

#184 - analyzes Morsul and comes up actually suspecting him. I have to say, I agree with a lot of what Sally says here. However... it is Morsul...

#187 - mentions Manwe and Eonwe - noncommittal on both.

#189 - states the obvious.

#217 - this is another post that makes a lot of sense. Darn it, Sally. :p

#223 - banter, and a post that early-days Lottie would have been all over.

#227 - clarification.

#232 - "who I will vote for" list. Still thinks Pom, Morsul, and Eonwe look most suspicious - this is what she's been saying all along, so points for consistency.



Conclusions -

Sally started off neutral, then dipped into "suspicious", but climbed out of that and rose into my "innocent" zone. However, I'd still like to hear from her regarding her Day 1 vote for Eomer and why she didn't even mention any other candidates.

[Morsul the Dark]

I've been trying to figure out if Pom Is indeed evil what would defending me get him?

I think it's a reach But here goes: Pom defends me votes Sally I being inclined to help him because of his defense vote Sally try to get others to do the same. Sally lynched innocent. Day three I get set up as a fall guy lynched innocent finally day four Pom lynched. that would give potentially 4 more deaths before a KM is gone.

I think I'm leaning Pom right now but waiting to see more from others.

[Loslote]

I've been trying to figure out if Pom Is indeed evil what would defending me get him?

I think it's a reach But here goes: Pom defends me votes Sally I being inclined to help him because of his defense vote Sally try to get others to do the same. Sally lynched innocent. Day three I get set up as a fall guy lynched innocent finally day four Pom lynched. that would give potentially 4 more deaths before a KM is gone.

I think I'm leaning Pom right now but waiting to see more from others.

How do you know Sally is innocent?

[Morsul the Dark]

I don't I'm assuming If Pom is Evil Sally is innocent if Pom is innocetn I think Sally is evil.

Sorry, I thought it was clear it was hypothetical.

I just think Sally is putting too much effort into suspecting me as a KM to be one. I tend to end up lynching myself at some point so I don't think she'd need that much effort to frame me;)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Morsul

#6 - naive banter; however, right off the bat, we find this -
Moving along:

Does fourth make me the nonexistent CC?

We have 3King's Men right?
I'm grabbing at straws here, I realize that, but it's just weird to me that Morsul refers to the CC as "nonexistent" here (meaning he knows G55 took it out) but asks for clarification on the number of baddies... which ought to have been in the exact same place as the CC-removal.

#17 - compliments phantom.

#78 - posts list of three, agrees with "phantom's dream plan" but thinks revealing Isildur is a bad idea.

#112 - worried about Sally - "possible bandwagoning" - and Nerwen - "too clean" - while thinking Eonwe is "a bit fishy but not vote worthy." Votes Sally.

#124 - defends his vote a bit, compliments phantom again, and defends his double checking of the baddie numbers (which is still odd to me).

#141 - explains his real reason for voting Sally - he thought Eomer was Erendil, and Zil the dreamer that saw Sally's guilt. Sally has actually already said most of what needs to be said regarding this. It doesn't really hold up if one looks at it too close, but again, Morsul thinks like this all the time.

#144 - confused by Lottie a bit. Mentions Boro could have been the dreamer.

#154 - banter, obviousness, and phantom.

#163 - obviousness. Thinks probably only one KM voted for Eomer in response to Inzil.

#171 - gets it wrong regarding if Boro was the N1 dreamer.

#173 - obviousness.

#176 - nothing useful.

#179 - grr.

#182 - continues speculating as to which Gifted Boro was.

#199 - continues being Morsul.

#205 - speculates about Phantom's day 1 vote.

#207 - corrects Pom.

#210 - clarification, obviousness, and a Lottie-ism.

#213 - still thinks Nerwen is "too clean".

#216 - obviousness.

#219 - is Morsul, and thus confusingly, arbitrarily contrary. Sally's suspicions of him are better, and Pom defending him is suspicious.

#228 - questions Inzil about having missed where Phantom dreamed Brinn.

#231 - doesn't know who to vote for. Sally "seems innocent", Pom suspicious, but Lottie makes a good point relating to Pom's innocence.


Conclusions -

It's always hard for me to say anything about Morsul. He's almost always self-deprecatingly wrong, but it's practically impossible to tell how much of that is intentional (read: wolvish) and how much of that is just typical Morsul.

[the phantom]

Just so we're clear of the position here-

Population: 11
Good vs Bad: 8 vs 3
Known Innocents: 3

Assuming an incorrect lynch-
10
7 vs 3
3

The baddies kill Amandil tonight, as he is the one guaranteed not to be protected tonight. Thus tomorrow-
9
6 vs 3
2

If the Baddies elect to leave Amandil alive to avoid his power and go after Brin or I and guess wrong (Anarion will be protecting one of us no doubt), then we'll sit here tomorrow-
10
7 vs 3
3

And in that circumstance the Baddies would then be forced to attempt a repeat kill the following night as Anarion would split duties between Amandil and the remaining known, meaning even with yet another bad lynch-
8
5 vs 3
2

At that point things would be ridiculously weighted against he Baddies despite lynches favoring them, and particularly if Anarion and/or Isildur is still alive, as that would leave even in a simple dice roll situation a 60-75% chance of lynching a Baddie, and it would be ridiculous to think that absolutely no decent suspicions would emerge by that point.

In short, due to the untenable situation the KMs would be in with a failed kill, we'll almost certainly lose Shasta tonight, which sucks, but at least we get a teensy kickback from his death. And if we can lynch correctly either today or tomorrow I think we have a puncher's chance of winning even without Elendil, so I don't think we need be overly depressed.

[Loslote]

I don't I'm assuming If Pom is Evil Sally is innocent if Pom is innocetn I think Sally is evil.

Sorry, I thought it was clear it was hypothetical.

I just think Sally is putting too much effort into suspecting me as a KM to be one. I tend to end up lynching myself at some point so I don't think she'd need that much effort to frame me;)

Ah! I'm sorry, I read your post wrong. Also, I don't think putting effort into formulating arguments against someone is ever a waste of time - even if they do draw suspicion like nothing else. After all, even if you are easy to lynch, Sally can't just vote for you without putting forward an argument and considering the issue carefully. You are easy to lynch, but that doesn't mean the people doing the lynching can afford to be complacent about it. If the lynchers are innocent, they'd better have a good reason for voting for you - actual reasons, not just 'he seems furry' - and if they're KM, they have to at least look like they've got reasons. Throwing away a vote on you is a sure sign of not really caring about the lynch - or just trying to lynch someone, anyone, who isn't a packmate.

All that goes to say, I don't suspect Sally for how much effort she's putting in. If anything, it makes her look more innocent to me.

EDIT: xed since Morsul