Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[mormegil]

An addendum to my previous post:

Given that the ranger seems to still be in play (let's hope!), rest assured that my precious and I have a whole new plan (rather, an additional plan) in the works to protect xem should they need to reveal at any point. It doesn't make my beloved immune, but it does make my return a little more plausible.

Anyway. Off to reading now, sorry. *poofs*

What is xem? Between last night's events and Sally's reveal today I'm a bit perplexed and I get the sense that most of us are feeling the same. I want to make my list of all to help clarify my thoughts and not overlook somebody.

Innocent
Sally--Obvious
Nerwen--Seems sensible and overall trying to help the village
Firefoot--Same
Lal--Same

Unsure
Formendacil--He's gone up and down in my mind which is a bit eyebrow raising and something that needs to be watched.
McCaber--Not sure we've ever played together so he's hard to read. He seems a bit gruff but not alarming.
Boromir--Overall I clump him closer to innocent than guilty as he has spoken some sense today but I've also learned to never trust him and he was somewhat suspicious the first day or two.
Lommy--I am also close to putting her on the innocent list but can't quite bring myself to it. While this hasn't bothered me overly I think we shouldn't let go too quickly of how much she jumped on Agan after my joke. That incident alone began to cast a lot of suspicion on Agan and can be traced directly as a cause to her lynching
Shasta--I get a funky vibe from him that doesn't sit right with me. I believe he's been more reserved today.
Mith--Doesn't like suspicion cast her way but I think is deserving of some. I'd like to continue to watch her.
Kath--What can you say? If she doesn't come tomorrow do we lynch her or let Modfire take its course? I think the lynching would make sense only if we don't have a reasonable suspicion.

Suspicious
Loslote--Has risen in my ranking but the bottom of the 3.
Eomer --Seemed insistent that we auto-lynch the lover and may have forced Sally's hand a bit.
Nilp --As stated earlier something is off and I don't trust him. With Nilp, the first day's behavior is so prescribed that he can follow a script and nobody suspects him. After that we are busy looking elsewhere. His interactions and comments have caused me concern and right now is my top suspect.


x'ed with Shasta and Nerwen

[mormegil]

Okay, I have to go and it's possible I won't be able to get back online later, so I guess I can't sit on this any longer. I said I had a particular reason for wanting to hear everyone's opinion's of everyone else, and here it is:

I received a pm telling me that the Seer had dreamed two wolves, Macalaure and Lottie.

It was *not* explained to me why I was being sent this interesting communication, nor can I find anything about it in the rules. Maybe this is a once-off thing (on the Seer's death?), or maybe a different person has been sent dreams each Night. Maybe the Dead are involved, or the mystery role. I honestly have no idea.

I realise I have no way of backing any of this up, and am asking you all to take my word for it, but I do think there's decent circumstantial evidence against both Lottie and Mac.

I'm taken a back a bit by this. May we know who sent this message and what the context was?

Why also would you think Lottie and Mac couldn't be wolves? I suspected Mac and have begun to suspect Lottie. Please share anything that will help us know of the validity of this.

[mormegil]

Why also would you think Lottie and Mac couldn't be wolves? I suspected Mac and have begun to suspect Lottie. Please share anything that will help us know of the validity of this.

My mistake Nerwen. I misread what you said. I thought you were indicating both couldn't be together not both being wolves. I would agree that Lottie could be a wolf.

[McCaber]

Okay, I have to go and it's possible I won't be able to get back online later, so I guess I can't sit on this any longer. I said I had a particular reason for wanting to hear everyone's opinion's of everyone else, and here it is:

I received a pm telling me that the Seer had dreamed two wolves, Macalaure and Lottie.

It was *not* explained to me why I was being sent this interesting communication, nor can I find anything about it in the rules. Maybe this is a once-off thing (on the Seer's death?), or maybe a different person has been sent dreams each Night. Maybe the Dead are involved, or the mystery role. I honestly have no idea.

I realise I have no way of backing any of this up, and am asking you all to take my word for it, but I do think there's decent circumstantial evidence against both Lottie and Mac.

Well that changes some things. I think at this stage a wolf Nerwen would have no reason to throw that much of a twist, which leads me to think she's being legit.

In which case, I would much rather have sally alive as a confirmed innocent and insurance that her partner has some way to come back.

[McCaber]

Oh morm, "xem" is a newfangled gender-neutral way of saying him or her.

[Nerwen]

I'm taken a back a bit by this. May we know who sent this message and what the context was?
It came via our mod, of course, but he wouldn't tell me anything more than I've told you already. I really have no idea what it's all about- some secret rule at work, evidently.

[Lalaith]

Nerwen's revelation: goodness. This IS a turn up for the books. I can't find anything in the rules to explain it either except the 'particular power' of the secret role. Why the third death last night though?
The actual fact of Lottie and Mac being wolves does not seem at all far-fetched, mind you, so I would be willing to trust this revelation for now. Unless of course someone else has something else startling to say before deadline. Bear in mind though, that my RL bedtime is way before deadline so my vote will be early.

[mormegil]

It came via our mod, of course, but he wouldn't tell me anything more than I've told you already. I really have no idea what it's all about- some secret rule at work, evidently.

It makes me wonder if the secret role is a travelling role as has been discussed. Somehow it may have helped kill Mac last night and gave you this info today. It's good to know it came from mod.

x'ed with Lal

[satansaloser2005]

I swear, every time I refresh the Mirth forum I think, "Ooo, haven't read that thread!" and nearly click on the Dead Thread.

You (and the others) are making it worse, darling. Shut up already. :smokin:

On the whole, I agree with Mac; while the wolf packs will undoubtedly attempt to eliminate each other, we can't really afford to leave all wolf hunting to the Night kills and not use our vote.

Noted for a bit later, and also because the way she words this seems too careful to me.

My own opinion is that every day without a lynch is a day the wolves can build up an uncontested lead and a day that gives us no real information to build off of in the future. Early lynches, arguments, and voting patterns are how you build solid cases and catch inconsistencies. Delaying for three days just leaves us that far behind when it comes to detective work.

Of course a wolf looking to seem reasonable would say the same thing, but this strikes me as a genuine statement from McCaber and makes me think him rather innocent.

Also I enjoy plans I haven't thought up my self (especially if I can take some credit for them), long walks at the beach, and killing Europeans.

So perhaps this was just a silly comment, but between Greenie’s comment above, Rune’s comment here (with a minor emphasis on the fact that he said “kill” rather than “lynch”), and the events of the first Night and second Day, I’m wondering if Greenie suspected Rune of being a rival wolf.

Now I'm itching to turn these into confidence intervals.

....Is that the hint I think it is? It caught my eye, and with last Night’s events, I’m tempted to assume Mac is (rather, was) the special role, whatever that may be. I’d love to hear people’s thoughts on this. Lal (was it her?) mentioned the possibility of the special role shifting. It’s possible that if one uses the role’s power, they die the following cycle or something. I’m leaving this alone for the moment and will return to it sometime later.

We're not the only people trying to take out wolves. Other wolves will do it too, purposefully or by accident, by night kills.

This is noted purely because, given my above, it’s possible the subsequent Night’s events made Agan think as I did and therefore shift her pick to Greenie. (It could also just be a coincidence.)

But I also hadn't realised what aganzir said about Dead Thread voting not starting til Night 3 anyway, which means the fewer people sent there the better really, excepting wolves.

Kath, precious, would you mind explaining this comment? How is it good to have fewer people in the dead thread other than wolves? Wouldn’t that give the wolves an advantage in controlling the dead thread?

Also, not a fan of Kath’s vote for Form Day 1, as it seemed too convenient and an easy way for a wolf to hide, but I’m more confused by the above.

It seems the village tends away from a tied vote, so while I prefer that as a plan, I should probably come up with a Plan B.

The thing I can’t figure out is why Form would support the non-lynch yet vote himself to be lynched the same Day (rather than vote for someone to tie himself with). It doesn’t necessarily seem like an evil thing to do, but it’s....weird.


Not as much as I’d have liked to glean from Day 1, but these are also just the highlights I felt necessary to point out/question.

I’m beginning to envision some possible wolf pack combinations. More on that in a bit. When last I read the thread, it sounded like Nerwen had something important to share, so I’ll check in on that and then sink my lack of teeth into Day 2 after I grab some lunch.


x'd a way bunch

[McCaber]

It makes me wonder if the secret role is a travelling role as has been discussed. Somehow it may have helped kill Mac last night and gave you this info today. It's good to know it came from mod.

x'ed with Lal

Maybe instead of travelling, the role has something to do with communicating across the threads? It still doesn't explain Mac's death, but if the PM came in the Night rather than the Day it would have had more of an effect on the game because Mac would still have been alive and getting two wolves flushed out would go a long way towards equalizing.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Wow. Ok, that is quite something.

There had been a fair bit of suspicion against Loslote and it was certainly building after Rikae's death. Given that, we might well be tempted to just lynch her now as it would seem as if we have little to lose thereby.

But if Nerwen is up to some scheme then we need to think about how such a tactic could benefit her and her pack.

*ponders*

[Nerwen]

While you're all chewing over this...

If we all (or most of us) vote for Lottie it might actually be possible to follow
Nilp's suggestion (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697814&postcount=424) for how to arrange the bonus votes. I'llhave to leave organising this to the rest of you, as I'm running out of time and it's very late, or rather early, here.

++Loslote

Edit:x'd with Eomer.

[Mithalwen]

If what Nerwen says is true. then looking at Legate's lists it rather suggests he wasn't the seer. They don't figure prominently even enough to make them seem like likely dream choices for last night,,,

Morm I don't mind suspicion but was curious why .. you know feelings are all very well but ...

[Nerwen]

If what Nerwen says is true. then looking at Legate's lists it rather suggests he wasn't the seer. They don't figure prominently even enough to make them seem like likely dream choices for last night,,,

Morm I don't mind suspicion but was curious why .. you know feelings are all very well but ...

I don't know if they *were* dreamed last Night. As I said, I don't know what is going on or how it works.

[Mithalwen]

Wow. Ok, that is quite something.

There had been a fair bit of suspicion against Loslote and it was certainly building after Rikae's death. Given that, we might well be tempted to just lynch her now as it would seem as if we have little to lose thereby.

But if Nerwen is up to some scheme then we need to think about how such a tactic could benefit her and her pack.

*ponders*

Loslote her self said that false reveals were unlikely but would buy the wolves time. Would it buy enough already?

[McCaber]

Well, the dead wouldn't have had time to scry Mac yet. ToMorrow I think would be better to work a tie and let the dead choose, but toDay I can't see doing anything other than

++ Lottie

[Mithalwen]

Nerwen I don't disbelieve you it was just that I had begun to assume. Maybe the mystery role is a variant on the medium thing Kuru postulated and then didn't formally do... that it isn't a wandering role but the person has a choice of options from a skill set each cycle, to kill, to pass on information...

[satansaloser2005]

So....that happened.

I'm certainly inclined to trust the word of Mod (and Nerwen) on this.

++Lottie

Off to obtain food. Back a while later with some thoughts on Day 2.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nerwen voted Mac yesterday. Related?

Maybe Nerwen has the special role, and it involves receiving some sort of message from the other side as well as her vote acting as a sort of curse.

Why now, though? Something to do with the Seer recently joining the Dead?

[Lalaith]

Hmmm....again with the good points Eomer.
In fact Nerwen didn't vote at all on Day 1. I did wonder why....

[satansaloser2005]

Hmmm....again with the good points Eomer.
In fact Nerwen didn't vote at all on Day 1. I did wonder why....

Because she's Nerwen? :p

(Seriously, she very rarely votes on Day 1. It's a thing.)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

There's something that doesn't quite fit in my theory, though, which is rather annoying.

If indeed Rikae was the Seer, and, upon the Seer's death the last two dreams were sent to Unknown-Power-Nerwen, then wolf-Mac doesn't suit. Rikae specifically lumped Mac in with Agan and Morm as innocent during Day 2 - she certainly didn't dream about Loslote and Mac on the same night.

It might then be more likely that Legate was the Seer.

Or this could all just be way off, of course..

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hmmm....again with the good points Eomer.
In fact Nerwen didn't vote at all on Day 1. I did wonder why....

The plot thickens! I hadn't thought of that.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nerwen has already voted for Loslote. We could test the theory by lynching someone else today? Or is that stupid?

[Firefoot]

I was already inclined to vote for Lottie (in the absence of a lover scheme anyway) and this sort of seals the deal. I was already inclined to trust Nerwen, and the two people she named topped my suspect list anyway.

Don't have time for more now, sorry! And I will be voting earlier toDay, have plans for later.

[Firefoot]

Also does anyone have any thoughts on the voting schema for guiding the Dead vote that I posted? Especially if it ends up being a landslide vote today, the Dead aren't going to be influencing it anyway, so it would be good to get some information from their vote if possible. Seems like we should figure it out sort of soon, too, before they start voting en masse.

[Lalaith]

I was already inclined to vote for Lottie (in the absence of a lover scheme anyway) and this sort of seals the deal. (Firefoot)
Well yes, my feelings too...but I did want to try to hold off until Lottie herself turned up to explain herself.

We could test the theory by lynching someone else today? Or is that stupid? (Eomer)
How could we test it when we don't know the roles after death? Or am I now missing something and being stupid?

Seriously, she very rarely votes on Day 1. It's a thing. (Sally)
I didn't know that. But if Nerwen's vote is some kind of kiss of death, then that might explain a lot.

[Boromir88]

I'm on my lunch and still planning to be back an hour or so before the DL, but if not:

++Lottie

I'm going to trust Nerwen's revealed info. I can't think of a reason a wolf would want to make this info up at this time.

[Loslote]

Okay, I have to go and it's possible I won't be able to get back online later, so I guess I can't sit on this any longer. I said I had a particular reason for wanting to hear everyone's opinion's of everyone else, and here it is:

I received a pm telling me that the Seer had dreamed two wolves, Macalaure and Lottie.

It was *not* explained to me why I was being sent this interesting communication, nor can I find anything about it in the rules. Maybe this is a once-off thing (on the Seer's death?), or maybe a different person has been sent dreams each Night. Maybe the Dead are involved, or the mystery role. I honestly have no idea.

I realise I have no way of backing any of this up, and am asking you all to take my word for it, but I do think there's decent circumstantial evidence against both Lottie and Mac.

Well, that's just not fair. :rolleyes:

Anyway, in the interest of killing the other pack - who I hate with every bone in my furry little body - here's who I wanted to kill toMorrow Night, and why:

It seems likely to me that Rikae and phantom were killed by one pack and Rune and Legate by the other, in that the pairs can be categorized similarly - Rikae and phantom both being quite vocal and widely unsuspected, while Rune and Legate both seem to play a hazier role (Legate was generally not considered suspicious, I believe?). Might be worth taking a look at who Legate and Rikae suspected yesterDay - I would be pretty nervous at this point if I was a wolf and the seer was still running around, so that's who I would think they were going for.

Rikae's strongest suspicion seemed to be Lottie. She voted for Greenie. Day 1 she voted for Lommy and discussed continuing suspicion of her early in Day 2, but by the end of Day 2 Lommy no longer seemed under consideration for votes. She seemed to find Nog, Form, Agan, Mac, and I (late in the Day, changing her mind) probably innocent.

Firefoot is way, way too spot on here. Of course she knows who the other pack killed at Night - she was there. My pack killed Rune and Legate (I would like to take the credit for figuring out that Legate was likely the Seer, thank you, I was pretty pleased with that. Can't believe he got the info out anyway) and Mac's and, presumably, Firefoot's pack killed tp and Rikae. (I didn't know which of Rikae and Mac they had killed until Firefoot confirmed for me that Mac was one of her pack, by the way. Thanks for that.)

Also, notice how Firefoot plays down how much Rikae and Legate both suspected her? I remember last Night thinking that Legate would probably dream either her or me last Night, and Rikae definitely suspected her, so she wasn't nearly as well trusted as she is trying to pretend here, and she is just as implicated in the case that a wolf pack Night killed one of them as I was, even though she tried to pretend otherwise.

My pack, kill her. Village, kill her. She is a wolf, and a rival of mine, and I will not have competition for my own dearly beloved packmates. <3

[Lalaith]

++Loslote

What on earth was she saying about Mac in that rant? Can anyone else figure it out?

[mormegil]

Nerwen has already voted for Loslote. We could test the theory by lynching someone else today? Or is that stupid?

I'm not sure it's the best time to do that. It would give us some information but only to the nature of her power, which we suspect anyway. I still wonder if the power rotates people, ordos presumably, or if it changes what the power is each day. However with the Nerwen, no vote day 1 and Mac's death it's likely that she has a super vote or something like that.

As far as Lottie's implication of Firefoot, it's interesting and shouldn't be wholly discounted, despite my feelings that Firefoot has been mostly innocent looking. I suspect there is a fair amount of truth in what she said. We need to decipher what that truth is. I do think Lottie is genuinely upset at the other pack and would be happy to throw them under if possibly, hence my thought that Firefoot may be worth watching now.

[Lalaith]

Can't believe he got the info out anyway) and Mac's and, presumably, Firefoot's pack killed tp and Rikae.

Ok, there is now a possessive apostrophe after Mac which wasn't there before and the sentence/meaning is now clear. Previously I thought Loslote was somehow claiming two kills for her pack last night.

[McCaber]

Ok, there is now a possessive apostrophe after Mac which wasn't there before and the sentence/meaning is now clear. Previously I thought Loslote was somehow claiming two kills for her pack last night.

Yeah, Mac was in a different pack. Firefoot's pack, if we believe the wolf.

[Firefoot]

Firefoot is way, way too spot on here. Of course she knows who the other pack killed at Night - she was there. My pack killed Rune and Legate (I would like to take the credit for figuring out that Legate was likely the Seer, thank you, I was pretty pleased with that. Can't believe he got the info out anyway) and Mac's and, presumably, Firefoot's pack killed tp and Rikae. (I didn't know which of Rikae and Mac they had killed until Firefoot confirmed for me that Mac was one of her pack, by the way. Thanks for that.)

Also, notice how Firefoot plays down how much Rikae and Legate both suspected her? I remember last Night thinking that Legate would probably dream either her or me last Night, and Rikae definitely suspected her, so she wasn't nearly as well trusted as she is trying to pretend here, and she is just as implicated in the case that a wolf pack Night killed one of them as I was, even though she tried to pretend otherwise.

My pack, kill her. Village, kill her. She is a wolf, and a rival of mine, and I will not have competition for my own dearly beloved packmates. <3 You may, of course, take the word of a wolf. :rolleyes:

For the record, here were the last things Rikae and Legate said about me:

Rikae, #380: [After a post by post analysis]: Conclusions: very safe, very under-the-radar, but otherwise seems innocent enough.

Legate, #329: Personally I do not know what to make of Firefoot, it isn't particularly striking impression, but the bit of wishy-washiness is there. [And later]: I just mentioned Lottie above (and Firefoot too, in fact), I am not sure if I would really go so far to vote for them.

#340: Could just as well be in the yellow zone though, it is more a matter of distinction, I think it would be nice to reread the posts etc to get better opinion, but that's about it.

I'd also like to point out that I have been pretty consistent in my suspicion of Mac, and voted for him yesterday bringing him to three votes when Agan had only four.

[Loslote]

You may, of course, take the word of a wolf. :rolleyes:

For the record, here were the last things Rikae and Legate said about me:

The last things, but not the only things. You were on Rikae's radar:


Just popping in to say I'm not particularly happy with the options at the moment. I don't have much time but how do others feel about Firefoot, and about Lottie? These loud, controversial people - Agan, Mac - seem less and less wolfish to me, and I don't see much of a case against Morm.

In fact, you were one of two people she analyzed yesterDay. If I were you, and I thought she was the Seer, I would have been very concerned that she would dream of you the next Night, just to be sure.

Anyway, it doesn't matter too much whether or not you actually did worry that she was a Seer who had dreamt of you or not. You did try to distance yourself earlier toDay, and you did try to play down her suspicions of you, indicating that you knew going into the Day that you had to be careful not to link yourself to the Night kill.

I'd also like to point out that I have been pretty consistent in my suspicion of Mac, and voted for him yesterday bringing him to three votes when Agan had only four.

You might have crossed with Mac's vote for Agan, which brought her to five, but you did know he was around, and you had to know there was enough momentum against her and not enough against Mac, and that the lynch was basically already determined. I could easily see this as a safe but potentially effective bit of distancing yourselves.

None of this addresses the most important of my points: how did you know, without once suggesting something that was not correct, how the Night kills were distributed between the packs? You hit the nail on the head with your first swing, which would have been almost impossible if you only had access to the information the rest of the village does. You only could have know that that was how the kills fell out if you were, in fact, a member of one of the packs.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Does that confirm that the third-party role killed Mac? (Bit hard to follow on a phone, sorry.)

++Lottie

[Loslote]

Does that confirm that the third-party role killed Mac? (Bit hard to follow on a phone, sorry.)

Well, it wasn't my pack, and it sure wasn't his own pack, so I'm gonna go with yes.

[Loslote]

Oh, and Shasta -

Lottie is one I'd like to look at today; there's something she's normally done in games by now that she hasn't yet and I'm curious as to the reason.

What do I usually do that I had not done yet? It's been bugging me all game. :p

[Formendacil]

Good grief--work an honest day and come back to see... I don't even have a word for it.

++Loslote

Clearly, I need to do some rereading and digesting. Even if I had a cogent reason to think Nerwen anything other than truthful--and the Secret Role, whatever we call it and whatever its powers, seems to fit here--about this communication, Lottie's admission seems to be complete. And last I checked, this game has no Cobbler.

Definitely going to need to sift her (probably misleading) posts for nuggets of truth.

[Mithalwen]

When I did my bored/go out on my own terms reveal in Sauce's two pack game, I told the truth pretty much as far as I knew or believed. I certainly told no lies...

[Mithalwen]

Oh and as a side note, can I say that I am finding Kath hugely suspicious. She is never been verbose but she has literally done the minimum to stop herself being modkilled by voting for Formendacil and has only posted twice. Given that there was nothing really more than nostalgia and Form had offered himself as a sacrifice I can't help wondering if she is the lowest flying wolf ever. Obviously not the target for tonight but..

[Formendacil]

When I did my bored/go out on my own terms reveal in Sauce's two pack game, I told the truth pretty much as far as I knew or believed. I certainly told no lies...

Yes, but what is she selectively omitting?

Obviously, the big question is who her fellows are. I don't suppose you'll tell us, Lottie, if you ask nicely?

EDIT: If *we* ask nicely.

[Firefoot]

how did you know, without once suggesting something that was not correct, how the Night kills were distributed between the packs? You hit the nail on the head with your first swing, which would have been almost impossible if you only had access to the information the rest of the village does. You only could have know that that was how the kills fell out if you were, in fact, a member of one of the packs. Good guess? Just seemed like the most obvious pairing...

A further point - since Lottie has been so kind as to take credit for Legate's kill, our possible seer, I'm going to guess that Greenie and Lottie are in the same pack - otherwise Legate's suspicion of Greenie wouldn't really point to him being a seer.

So our current list of the living is:

Lottie - wolf by her own admission, maybe with Greenie

Innocent, if we believe Legate was the seer:
Nerwen
Lommy
Mith

And the rest of us - up to three wolves in this group:
Form
Sally
McCaber
Boro
Firefoot
Lal
Eomer
morm
Nilp
Shasta
Kath

If we can ferret out Lottie and Greenie's packmate, we'd be down to one kill a night (by the wolves anyway...).

[satansaloser2005]

I'm wondering where Kath is, honestly. I think she'd make some sort of effort to be here, even if it's just long enough to say she's busy. Total silence is worrisome. :(

[Firefoot]

But wait a minute... Legate was only killed last night, so the Dead Thread wouldn't have access to his information (if he was the seer) until toDay. Looking again at Nerwen's reveal post, she said: It was *not* explained to me why I was being sent this interesting communication, nor can I find anything about it in the rules. Maybe this is a once-off thing (on the Seer's death?), or maybe a different person has been sent dreams each Night. Maybe the Dead are involved, or the mystery role. I honestly have no idea. So if we're sticking with the idea that Legate was the seer, I think it must have something to do with his death, maybe with some obscure relation to the mystery role, but nothing to do with the Dead Thread.

The other option is that Legate was not the seer, his guess about Greenie was just lucky since it set Lottie off, and that the seer is dead, and somehow this message is coming from the Dead Thread (again, maybe with some relation to the mystery role).

[mormegil]

Definitely going to need to sift her (probably misleading) posts for nuggets of truth.

I urge skepticism, certainly, but even if there are omissions I think it's worth looking into. We can't turn our backs on something that could be so vital. It's odd that you summarily dismiss the idea, not seemingly in protection of Firefoot but of not trusting a wolf. I'm uncertain of Firefoot as a wolf but if she is I wonder if you are her mate. Also, it would seem that Lottie's motivation is that of not letting the other pack win, it seems a matter of pride really. It would fit, then, that she would give the info that she knew at the time.

Anyway,

++Loslote

[Loslote]

The other option is that Legate was not the seer, his guess about Greenie was just lucky since it set Lottie off, and that the seer is dead, and somehow this message is coming from the Dead Thread (again, maybe with some relation to the mystery role).

Or Legate could have just gotten lucky, and Nerwen is the Seer who made up a pm from Kuru so that her reveal would be a little less risky. Keep that possibility in mind, wolves!

[Firefoot]

Or Legate could have just gotten lucky, and Nerwen is the Seer who made up a pm from Kuru so that her reveal would be a little less risky. Keep that possibility in mind, wolves! That would be one of the cleverest lies I've ever heard of.

[Firefoot]

I guess there's no point in delaying it any longer:

++Lottie

[Loslote]

That would be one of the cleverest lies I've ever heard of.

Right? She could pretend to act as a conduit for any helpful dreams she might have had, and make us believe that the real Seer is still hidden somewhere else - maybe even in the Dead thread - so that the wolves are too busy chasing something that doesn't exist to bother killing her. One of the packs should probably kill her toNight, just to be safe.

[Formendacil]

I urge skepticism, certainly, but even if there are omissions I think it's worth looking into. We can't turn our backs on something that could be so vital. It's odd that you summarily dismiss the idea, not seemingly in protection of Firefoot but of not trusting a wolf. I'm uncertain of Firefoot as a wolf but if she is I wonder if you are her mate. Also, it would seem that Lottie's motivation is that of not letting the other pack win, it seems a matter of pride really. It would fit, then, that she would give the info that she knew at the time.

I'm unclear: who is "you" here? Assuming you mean me (Formendacil), I did not intend to "summarily dismiss" the idea of sifting through Lottie's posts, merely offering the caution that the sifting would, in fact, be sifting--Lottie's riverbed is not gravelled solely with gold nuggets.

I agree that Lottie may well be motivated to share her knowledge with the village out of professional pride or tribal rivalry, but if we assume she still has packmates living, her chief concern is probably as much to deflect attention from them as it is to help us find the other pack.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Koala
Nerwen - I noticed how she suddenly took the fore toDAY. I thought at first that she saw Boro's post regarding post count and thought to herself, 'Challenge accepted.' With her revelation that sudden shift now makes more sense. Am inclined to trust her information, at least.
Sally - Hmm...

Shark-infested waters
Formendacil - Shifted down a notch due to presence of 'confirmed' innocents. Done nothing to make me doubt him, though.
Boromir88 - Ditto.
Thinlómien - Her posts toDAY are substantive and has innocent villager-like vibes--the thinking out loud, the confusion, the frustration at the confusion, etc.
Mithalwen - Is worryingly detached, but nothing suspicious. (Also, is my mother.)
Lalaith - Feels innocent, but not strongly so. Focused on the narration detail as well as the Nog/Agan duelling waggons (the clearest clue available or laser focusing on one topic to avoid committing to other opinions? But she did provide a sort of list.)
mormegil - Is helping me fulfil my suspicion quota. Also, he makes his opinion known, which is something I'd trust in this village--Wolves would be try to be less open, I think.

Swarm of Killer Beers [sic]
Firefoot - Her death analysis as sharp (way too sharp even, according to Lottie), but in the absence of concrete role/alignment knowledge of the Dead, an analysis of why someone would be killed as a possible Seer seems a useful tool.
Shastanis Althreduin - Werewolf Psychic strikes again? (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697497#post697497) His narrow laser-like focus on certain topics is worrying, but is comprehensive in them.
McCaber - Too focused on the Agan/Lommy war; provided a halfhearted Rune death analysis (although I do understand the halfheartedness. This game is driving me insane.)
Eomer of the Rohirrim - Makes logical arguments against the Agan/Lommy war being suspicious. Is part of the Nogawagon (TM A Little Green). Makes a comment about how laser-like focus on a topic is used to camouflage Wolvish behaviour, but is laser-like in his posts as well (the war and Legate's case against Greenie). Hm?

Komodo Dragon
Kath - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Godzilla
Loslote - From her 'revealing' comment, I'm inclined to think that her Pack is in dire straits--probably down to one member after her death?
Nilpaurion Felagund - When can we lynch him?
Kuruharan

---

Now we need information from the Dead more than ever. If the Seer is indeed there, and they have indeed dreamt of the two people Nerwen mentioned, then that's an additional known innocent--in fact, she would be even more confirmed than Sally at this point (unless this dream transfer can happen to Wolves, and Nerwen used it to get a member of the other Pack killed...? Unlikely.)

Also, the effect this has on the other Pack's psyche--now they know that a member of the other Pack has been killed, and they (probably) now have numbers. Would they revert to more traditional Werewolvery posting and NIGHT killing?

Also, DEAD PEOPLE, please use Firefoot's list (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697939#post697939) to tell us what you know. kkthxbai

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

++Loslote

And I hope her Packmate/s go for Sally toNIGHT.

[McCaber]

Also, DEAD PEOPLE, please use Firefoot's list (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697939#post697939) to tell us what you know. kkthxbai

I will second asking for this. It's the best list that's been discussed toDay and because we're basically unanimous here you guys won't harm anything by throwing our totals off.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++loslote

[Thinlómien]

Celebration? Confusion?? First and foremost celebration!

++Lottie

I'm on my phone now and not sure how much I'll be around later if at all but:

1. Please guys talk to the dead thread, rather now than later. (DL is soon.)
2. We should look at what Lottie said, and properly. If her pack indeed killed Legate and Rune that's a lot of new info for us. Likewise, it would be interesting to see who would benefit from a bluff like that.
3. I find Firefoot's reaction to Lottie's accusations curious to put it mildly. I think an innocent would have just laughed it off!

[Kath]

My apologies for the radio silence. It has been ... a week.

Clearly, Lottie is going to be lynched toDay. This mysterious PM cannot be proven in any way, but if it is some kind of ruse then I take my hat off to Nerwen. It is one hell of a curve ball if so!

I have skimmed, not fully read. Along the way I grew suspicious of Firefoot and Aganzir. On Day 1, Firefoot decided to vote for Gwath because those who do not turn up should be lynched. Now this is a more than fair reason for a vote, but given all the discussion about vote tying and the fairly large pool of potential lynchees already in place, it felt throwaway.

Aganzir, at some point, then said she felt fairly secure about Firefoot's innocence. Actually, I think a wolf-Agan maybe wouldn't say this in a normal ww game if she was a ww, but with two packs it could be that Agan is suspicious of Firefoot as being a rival wolf and this would have thrown suspicion her way were Agan to be lynched and her posts looked at in detail.

I haven't quite figured out where the focus on Firefoot toDay has come in. On phone so will post this and read more closely.

[Kath]

Also Lommy what do you mean by 'talk to the dead thread'?

[Kath]

Just to make sure it is there:

++Lottie

[Firefoot]

Kath - Agan is dead and we're pretty sure she was the hunter.

Took a brief look at Green and Lottie's posts to try and find out any hints towards a third partner (still riding this theory on those two being in cahoots) and I think if there's anything it's going to be on p 7 when both of them were going into this morm/Sally thing... but both of them seemed to interact with mostly now-dead people the first day, and refrained from mentioning many suspicions.

Did not look yet at how other people have talked to/about them.

And now I'm out for the Day.

[Kath]

Aaah oops just realised Agan already bit the dust. Have at least realised Firefoot suspicion comes direct from the wolf's mouth.

To reply to something I saw on the way:
But I also hadn't realised what aganzir said about Dead Thread voting not starting til Night 3 anyway, which means the fewer people sent there the better really, excepting wolves.
Kath, precious, would you mind explaining this comment? How is it good to have fewer people in the dead thread other than wolves? Wouldn’t that give the wolves an advantage in controlling the dead thread?

I meant the fewer people, excepting wolves, there are in the Dead Thread, the more people, excepting wolves, there are alive. Given we need a numbers advantage against two packs having more innocents alive than dead seemed like a positive thing to me.

[Kath]

This extra Night kill is interesting. Assuming Agan was the Hunter (seems clear enough that she was) and took Greenie down with her, then the extra death may suggest that either Greenie has some special role that allows her to also take someone down with her. I think it was Eomer that floated the possibility of a were-bear. Rules for them vary with each mod, so I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that a Greenie-bear could cause a death after her own.

[Kath]

Sorry it must be fairly evident that I am doing train-of-thought posting here, and this may have already been answered somewhere along the way, but can the Seer and the Hunter come back from the Dead Thread, or just the Ranger and the Lovers?

[Kath]

Nerwen has already voted for Loslote. We could test the theory by lynching someone else today? Or is that stupid?

This was from Eomer (mobiles are not conducive to this game!). Eomer, given that roles are not revealed upon lynch, how would lynching someone else have tested the theory? I may have missed something here ...

[Kath]

Now, given that I am posting into a void and that any lurkers are probably fed up of my inane questions, I will take my leave.

[mormegil]

Kath is back. She must be guilty! :D

Only lovers and ranger come back as far as we know.

Eomer asked about lynching a second with the Nerwen vote to test the powers. It won't happen today obviously. This is s post from the phone too and it does stink.

[Boromir88]

My pack, kill her. Village, kill her. She is a wolf, and a rival of mine, and I will not have competition for my own dearly beloved packmates. <3

If that's the case, why doesn't your mates just kill her, or don't you feel like being THAT helpful?. :p

[Thinlómien]

Dear dead thread,

the most conclusive communication scheme today was the one suggested by Firefoot. We'll be keeping that in mind.

Dear fellow living,

if anyone has a better idea, please talk about it now. Or support it. Anything.

ToDay is safe for experiments as everyone's voting for Lottie.

[Mithalwen]

Sorrry dozed off again just remembered haven't voted which isn't important in itself but may confound the dear departed.

Oh good grief Kath really most bizarre... and that is from me.

++Loslote

[mormegil]

Despite Lottie's talk about Firefoot, it's still the most reasonable idea under the circumstances.

Dear dead thread,

the most conclusive communication scheme today was the one suggested by Firefoot. We'll be keeping that in mind.

Dear fellow living,

if anyone has a better idea, please talk about it now. Or support it. Anything.

ToDay is safe for experiments as everyone's voting for Lottie.

[satansaloser2005]

Dear dead thread,

the most conclusive communication scheme today was the one suggested by Firefoot. We'll be keeping that in mind.

Dear fellow living,

if anyone has a better idea, please talk about it now. Or support it. Anything.

ToDay is safe for experiments as everyone's voting for Lottie.

I concur. Firefoot's post can be found here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=697939#post697939).


x'd with Morm

[Loslote]

If that's the case, why doesn't your mates just kill her, or don't you feel like being THAT helpful?. :p

Well, they can, if they so chose. But considering I hadn't had the chance to tell them in private, I decided that if I was going down, I was going to drag whoever of the other pack I could down with me. I don't really care if my packmates kill her or if you lot do, just so long as she dies. ;)

[Mithalwen]

That's the spirit Loslote :rolleyes:

[Loslote]

That's the spirit Loslote :rolleyes:

I prefer The Dread Spirit Loslote, or Loslote the Fearsome Spirit, and anyway I'm not either for another half an hour. ;)

[Loslote]

++The Fanged Firefoot

[satansaloser2005]

That's the spirit Loslote :rolleyes:

I prefer The Dread Spirit Loslote, or Loslote the Fearsome Spirit, and anyway I'm not either for another half an hour. ;)

That was fabulous, my darling. Well done. :D

[Loslote]

That was fabulous, my darling. Well done. :D

:Merisu: Thank you! I couldn't believe she gave me the opening, it completely made my Day. :D

[satansaloser2005]

:Merisu: Thank you! I couldn't believe she gave me the opening, it completely made my Day. :D

I'm glad it gave you something to live for. Oops! Too soon? :smokin:

[McCaber]

I'm glad it gave you something to live for. Oops! Too soon? :smokin:

If anything, it was to die for.

[Loslote]

I'm glad it gave you something to live for. Oops! Too soon? :smokin:

--Firefoot

++Sally

:p

EDIT: xed with McCaber

--Sally

++MCCABER

[satansaloser2005]

If anything, it was to die for.

Ah, and there it is. That's my boy! You know, I've missed you. ;)

[Mithalwen]

:Merisu: Thank you! I couldn't believe she gave me the opening, it completely made my Day. :D

Je vous en prie. And actually your bravura performance made mine. You go out with style and my incarnation from the Anduin vale salutes you.

My incarnation in this village on the other hand disassociates herself from that since the Dead thread loolks set to overtake this one and should she go there soon it is going to be pointless losing the will to live.

Goodnight

[satansaloser2005]

*blows a kiss at her beloved, settles in for the Night*

[Loslote]

I hope you all die grisly, horrible deaths. <3

[satansaloser2005]

I hope you all die grisly, horrible deaths. <3

Ladies first. :Merisu:

[Kuruharan]

It had certainly been a day of stunning revelations, heated arguments, and bold defiance. Fortunately, this whole disaster was still being excellently catered.

As the frenzy grew, suddenly Shastanis Althreduin stood and with a loud voice cried, "I feel strangely EMPOWERED and believe Loslote must die!!" with a voice that echoed with the sound of a thousand lost souls.

As that was already the consensus of the group (and not wanting to argue with a clearly crazy person) the inmates seized Loslote, beat her savagely with a knout they happened to find handy (why does Kuru keep all this stuff in his house?), threw her on the guillotine, and pulled the lever.

CLUNK

Away rolled the head.

*scratch scratch scratch*

This time, that was all that happened before the lights went out.

The Missing or Dead:
Kuruharan
Nogrod
the phantom
Rune Son of Bjarne
Aganzir
A Little Green
Macalaure
Rikae
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote

The Living:
Formendacil
satansaloser2005
McCaber
Boromir88
Nerwen
Firefoot
Thinlómien
Lalaith
Eomer of the Rohirrim
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen
Kath

Illusion:
Gwathagor(Ordo)

[Kuruharan]

Light crept through the windows again.

The itching inmate had scratched all NIGHT making it hard to sleep...among other reasons.

Breakfast appeared and the inmates, with great dread of the results, began looking around.

It was a measure of the level of the catastrophie that finding what seemed like less gore spattered about seemed like a great thing.

They had, in fact, become so used to it that they all set to breakfast with great gusto and ate all of it.

I mean, obviously, Firefoot and Lalaith were not going to need it anymore and it would be criminal to let it go to waste.

The Missing or Dead:
Kuruharan
Nogrod
the phantom
Rune Son of Bjarne
Aganzir
A Little Green
Macalaure
Rikae
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Firefoot
Lalaith

The Living:
Formendacil
satansaloser2005
McCaber
Boromir88
Nerwen
Thinlómien
Eomer of the Rohirrim
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen
Kath

Illusion:
Gwathagor (Ordo)

[satansaloser2005]

Well....then.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Both Nerwen and Sally survived? Eh???

[McCaber]

So Lottie's pack took her advice about killing Firefoot, it looks like, but what did the other wolves see in Lalaith? Did they figure Nerwen would be protected last Night, or did they feel there was some other reason to ignore her? I'm going to read through Lal's posts and see if I can find some reason for targeting her.

I'm with Nilp on being really thrown for a loop here.

[satansaloser2005]

Hey, guys, I'm right here. :rolleyes: :p

I am confounded by the Lal kill though. I feel like that came out of nowhere.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

One thing about the narration that I noticed is that the "itching" has become even more prominent. I wonder if something happens if the hidden role lives to a certain day or night? Given the narration I'd say they're probably still alive, at the very least.

[McCaber]

Hey, guys, I'm right here. :rolleyes: :p

I am confounded by the Lal kill though. I feel like that came out of nowhere.

Hey sally. Depending on what shakes out toDay I think I'd still prefer you alive than temporarily deceased, just because it seems easier to me to protect someone you know versus someone staying hidden, and as there's still two kills a night flying around I would dislike risking both of you dying in the same cycle and us getting nothing from your reveal.

[mormegil]

As Shasta received the extra vote yesterday, we can assume Greenie was innocent, correct? There was never any real surety of it as she was the Hunter kill which was based on suspicion. I'll have to see what this means to us, thought I"m not how much we can tell when an innocent Agan killed an innocent Greenie.

I do wonder if we are down to one pack now with Lottie gone. There are essentially two options as it appears that the "itching inmate" had another kill last night, based on the narration. It could be that we are down to one pack or that we had a successful ranger protection. Or I suppose I could be reading the narration wrong and there are two packs with two kills and no itching syndrome.

I'm trying to make heads or tails of the Firefoot kill. The itching villager could have taken her out on suspicion of being a wolf off Lottie's accusation. I was going to look into that toDay but I guess not now. I wasn't convinced but I thought it was worth looking into. If anything I thought it was Lottie trying to protect a pack mate of Firefoot in a fairly bold move.

The Lalaith kill seems odd. She didn't stand out one way or the other. I felt she was mostly innocent and didn't strike me as gifted.

Yesterday Lottie, Nilp and Eomer were my top suspects with a few others near. So far they remain and I'd like to look into them more. Honestly though, I'm more confused toDay than yesterDay and slightly frustrated.

x'ed with McCaber 590 on

[mormegil]

Hey sally. Depending on what shakes out toDay I think I'd still prefer you alive than temporarily deceased, just because it seems easier to me to protect someone you know versus someone staying hidden, and as there's still two kills a night flying around I would dislike risking both of you dying in the same cycle and us getting nothing from your reveal.

Agreed, plus it's nice to have a known innocent around. I suppose two known with Nerwen, although somebody should look at her for a nasty skin rash.:rolleyes:

[mormegil]

Also (sorry for the triple post) who are the potential scry candidates among the dead? We should set up a similar system as we did yesterDay. That seemed to be useful and low risk.

[McCaber]

Also (sorry for the triple post) who are the potential scry candidates among the dead? We should set up a similar system as we did yesterDay. That seemed to be useful and low risk.

The only reason it was low-risk was that it was a unanimous pick. If there's contention as to whom to lynch, all of a sudden who gets the bonus vote becomes a much thornier proposition.

[satansaloser2005]

The only reason it was low-risk was that it was a unanimous pick. If there's contention as to whom to lynch, all of a sudden who gets the bonus vote becomes a much thornier proposition.

And with Firefoot gone, I doubt we can orchestrate such a thing again, unless we want to do some sort of wacky tie nonsense (which I'm not keen on for toDay without some convincing).

[satansaloser2005]

And with Firefoot gone, I doubt we can orchestrate such a thing again, unless we want to do some sort of wacky tie nonsense (which I'm not keen on for toDay without some convincing).

Whoops. I meant to add that I would make a list if it were not for this.

[Boromir88]

Lalaith? Puzzling.

[mormegil]

The only reason it was low-risk was that it was a unanimous pick. If there's contention as to whom to lynch, all of a sudden who gets the bonus vote becomes a much thornier proposition.

True, but we may be able to coordinate something and at the end of the day we could agree if it should be used.

[McCaber]

Looking at Lalaith:

Day 1
Post 120 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697206&postcount=120): Quick check-in, nothing more
Post 126 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697212&postcount=126): Votes Legate after saying just how little she likes Day 1s. Maybe if Legate's a wolf his pack remembered this and thought her the seer?

Day 2
Post 259 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697372&postcount=259): Some analysis on Nog's lynch saying that he seemed one of the most innocent, but suspects Agan instead.
Posts 315 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697450&postcount=315) and 318 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697455&postcount=318): Thinking on this mysterious "itch" and the door being shut.
Post 320 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697457&postcount=320): Maybe the itch has to do with the secret role? And still pondering the Nogwagon.
Post 334 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697480&postcount=334): Says Greenie, Nerwen, and Lottie look good (two out of three there, I guess), and ends up voting Aganzir.
Post 337 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697485&postcount=337): Again about the itch and the hidden role. It seemed to occupy a good chunk of her mindspace this Day.

Day 3
Post 455 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697874&postcount=455): More speculation on the special role and Aganzir's bear trap.
Post 457 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697876&postcount=457): Raising the idea of a wandering special role. This came a bit out of nowhere, so maybe the wolves thought she had inside knowledge from here?
Post 458 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697877&postcount=458): Speculates on Legate being the Seer.
Post 460 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697879&postcount=460): Reminding Mith of another instance of itching in the books, in this case Perrin's itching palms for the Palantir.
Post 485 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697923&postcount=485): In response to Nerwen, has positive feelings about Firefoot and suspicion of Lottie. Which is interesting, based on how the Day and Night turned out.
Post 486 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697924&postcount=486): Vote tally.
Post 496 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697942&postcount=496): Agreeing with Eomer about Legate's words not matching his categories, speculation that Rikae was the seer.
Post 507 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697973&postcount=507): Trusts Nerwen's information, and wonders where exactly it came from.
Post 520 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697998&postcount=520): Again agreeing with Eomer, this time about Nerwen's voting habits.
Post 527 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=698019&postcount=527): Short responses to previous conversations.
Post 530 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=698024&postcount=530): Votes Lottie.
Post 532 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=698032&postcount=532): Realizes what a point in Lottie's post is supposed to mean.

If Lal was killed for looking like a seer, I don't think these wolves are very perceptive. Hunting the ranger, maybe? Or maybe even wolves thinking they see a rival pack and offing her when they get the chance, but with Nerwen and sally still alive it seems like a terrible play. Basically I still have no clue why she was killed, and it's throwing me for a loop.

[satansaloser2005]

I had a think about Lal. She was playing it rather safe, so my guess (at least at the moment) is that a pack went after her with hopes of bagging the ranger. She also wasn't suspected too much, so best to get cleaner innocents (if she was one) out of the way.

I'm off for the night. Fair warning, my darlings: Tomorrow is packed for me, so I'll only be on over lunch (possible but unlikely) and for a short spurt in the evening.

[Boromir88]

One thing about the narration that I noticed is that the "itching" has become even more prominent. I wonder if something happens if the hidden role lives to a certain day or night? Given the narration I'd say they're probably still alive, at the very least.

It's those dang mosquitos out here. They love to eat me up.

I guess now is a good time as any, since information is going to be our best weapon during the DAY. And I've been keeping this secret for far too long.

I've been rather rubbish and cautious during the day, but quite deadly at night (and hopefully I snatched another wolf last night) I offed Mac Night 3 and Lalaith last night (didn't kill anyone NIGHT 2...the phantom and Rune must have been the wolf kills). I would like to try to convince the dead to believe me and check Lalaith next time. And try to organize the method again to relay that information.

I feel pretty good there's a few dead wolves...in fact it's been fun sort of bringing back memories of Sauce's blood bath game. Although last time I went on this wolf-slaying rampage and had to reveal, I died and we all lost. I won't say anything else about gifts (there may be a few more tricks up my sleeve, there may not be...wolves should be worried though ;) )

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Here are the legal scrying targets from the previous NIGHT:

Likely to be scried:
Nogrod
phantom
Rikae
Legate
Rune

Less likely/'confirmed' roles:
Loslote
Macalaure
Aganzir

We still have 12 people alive, which means we can ask the role of one of six Dead people with certainty, or some other permutation that would require trimming the message being sent.

We can assign ten of us to the five on the first list, and fit the other three on the second to the last two(?) Any other ideas?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I didn't cross-post with Boro, but I didn't read it past his first paragraph/sentence while composing my list. That changes a lot.

[McCaber]

So if Boro killed Lal, either we're down to one wolfpack or the Ranger made a save.

[Boromir88]

So if Boro killed Lal, either we're down to one wolfpack or the Ranger made a save.

Or Lottie was pulling our leg and they both targeted Firefoot (and thus Firefoot is innocent). Or Lottie's pack did kill Firefoot, and I was wrong about Lalaith and Firefoot's pack went for Lalaith. (Although, I'm not sure why Lalaith would be a wolf target...they might figure Nerwen would be protected, but why not kill sally? Unless they don't think they can get sally's lover before she returns from the dead)

There's several possibilities that I'm not sure can be answered all today. I hope it's one pack now or a Ranger save, but that might not be the case.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I offed Mac Night 3 and Lalaith last night

Or Lottie's pack did kill Firefoot, and I was wrong about Lalaith and Firefoot's pack went for Lalaith.

Boro, I'm confused... Did you, or did you not, kill Lalaith? And if so, why?

[Nerwen]

Hello, all!:)

Regarding Lottie: if we assume her pack killed Firefoot, I think we can also assume she was sincere in her suspicion, and the reasoning behind it- i.e. it was indeed Lottie and Co. who killed Rune and Legate.. As for why she would openly say that- because those kills didn't point directly to anyone in her pack. (Greenie being innocent.) For the rest, though- who knows? Wolves aren't always perfectly honest in extremis..

Lalaith is surprising. However, two things stand out about her.
1. She was very preoccupied with the special role, such that it may have been a flag to the wolves (if indeed the second pack killed her).
2. She shared Lottie's reasoning on Legate (#455 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697874&postcount=455) yesterDay). A packmate?

N.B. As I'm writing this, I see Boro has revealed as the special role (I think). I haven't read his post properly yet.
Edit: x'd with Nilp, Boro, McCaber and my heart.

[McCaber]

Boro, I'm confused... Did you, or did you not, kill Lalaith? And if so, why?

It appears that he tried to kill Lal. His powers only seem to work if he targets a wolf, so if she was innocent then it was the wolves who might have killed her instead.

[Boromir88]

Boro, I'm confused... Did you, or did you not, kill Lalaith? And if so, why?

I'm saying I'm responsible for the 3rd kill (Mac) on NIGHT 3, and that I also had a decision to make on to take someone else out last night, and decided Lalaith. But I have no way of confirming whether she's a wolf (and so I would request for the dead to check her on their next chance), or if I was wrong and one pack made the same selection.

I was more confident in the Mac choice, and probably took a bigger gamble with Lalaith. I took a shot at someone who was flying under my radar, but also someone who seemed to know too much, but I judged she wasn't the seer.

[Nerwen]

I just wanted to repost this exchange between Eomer and myself yesterDay, prior to my startling revelation.
#492.
The Legate-as-Seer theory, based on his Day 2 list, needs to be checked against his Day 1 list.

Green was the sole serious suspect both days.

Nerwen, Lommy and Mith were alone as innocents on Day 2, but were all in the innocent pile on Day 1 as well - along with a bunch of other people. So if Legate is the Seer, did he dream Green on the first night? Why then would he spend both his dreams on people he found innocent? Very unlikely. On the other hand, he might have just got very lucky (or is very good at hunting!) in focusing on Green on Day 1 and confirming his correct suspicion the next night. This is more likely but still a bit of a long shot.

Rikae's focus on Loslote on Day 2 seems more Seerish. She puts great effort into making a case against her (#338) while couching in the post prior that she wanted to take a closer look at Loslote and Firefoot. Interestingly, in that post (#325) she mentions exactly three names as innocents: Agan, Mac and Morm.

#495.
This is the post in question.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Just popping in to say I'm not particularly happy with the options at the moment. I don't have much time but how do others feel about Firefoot, and about Lottie? These loud, controversial people - Agan, Mac - seem less and less wolfish to me, and I don't see much of a case against Morm.
The comment about Morm does sound rather like classic seer-phrasing, but I'm not so sure about the rest. Though, Rikae was very strongly against lynching Agan on Day One, to the extent of voting Lommy for "fabricating" a case against her- that could mean something.
Now, at this point I had not yet decided what to do with the knowledge I had been given, and was more concerned about letting the village consider the late unlamented Macwolf a dreamed innocent. But Eomer does have a point- naming those three as looking innocent *could* have looked like a hint- but only to a pack that did not contain Macalaure.Now Lottiewolf says that Mac was one of her rivals, and that it was his pack, not hers, that killed Rikae. Doesn't really add up- unless we assume, as she seemingly did, that Firefoot was a wolf and that it was *only* the comment about her to which the other pack reacted, and not the comments about Agan, Morm, Mac or herself.
I think we should consider the possibility that either Lottie switched the kills in her accusation of Firefoot and that it was Lottie's pack who killed tp and Rikae, or that Mac was her fellow.

[Nerwen]

I'm saying I'm responsible for the 3rd kill (Mac) on NIGHT 3, and that I also had a decision to make on to take someone else out last night, and decided Lalaith. But I have no way of confirming whether she's a wolf (and so I would request for the dead to check her on their next chance), or if I was wrong and one pack made the same selection.

I was more confident in the Mac choice, and probably took a bigger gamble with Lalaith. I took a shot at someone who was flying under my radar, but also someone who seemed to know too much, but I judged she wasn't the seer.
It is quite possible, though, that I was targeted. I haven't told you *everything* yet...:smokin:

Anyway, for the moment I suggest we re-read Lalaith through wolf-coloured glasses and see where that gets us (if anywhere).

[Nerwen]

Wait a moment-
Reminding Mith of another instance of itching in the books, in this case Perrin's itching palms for the Palantir.
Perrin? Perrin?
Your Tolkien license is revoked, McCaber!:mad:

[McCaber]

Wait a moment-

Perrin? Perrin?
Your Tolkien license is revoked, McCaber!:mad:

Oh man I am a fool. I'm in the middle of a Wheel of Time reread and I guess I just don't know what I was thinking. Obviously I meant to say young Peregrin. Mea culpa.

Nerwen, did you get any more helpful PMs last night?

And Boro, were you able to do anything after Day 1, or was killing Mac the first special thing you did? Because man, if you work like a vigilante seer that would blow this game wide open.

[Nerwen]

Oh man I am a fool. I'm in the middle of a Wheel of Time reread and I guess I just don't know what I was thinking. Obviously I meant to say young Peregrin. Mea culpa.

Nerwen, did you get any more helpful PMs last night?
I did, but it was *really* weird this time- an actual riddle! I'm not going to say anything more just yet- anyway there's still parts I'm trying to work out.

[Nerwen]

Pretty sure Firefoot was innocent, though- can't hurt to let you know that.

[Mithalwen]

Well I did wonder if there had been a ranger save even before Boromir revealed his need for a flea collar. As far as I can see there is no advantage to wolves killing a lover. They won't want the village to get more concrete information and they will want us to waste a lynch on an innocent for it.

Very perplexed by Kath's desperate stream of posts last thing last night not sure what is the most plausible explanation... had really found her suspicious but can't help thinking a wolf reengaging with the game would have tried to play it cooler.. anyway aware of crossposts so will post and read..

[Formendacil]

Only one post before I head out to work.

Boro--obviously, we'd like all the details of this special role we can get: anything that helps us winnow down what's actually happened in the village so far. I don't know if you're saving that or if you've been instructed to hide it or if it's part of a strategy to hide it, but clearly we'd all like more--like, what is the name of the role?

The other thing I'd like confirmation on is these secret messages Nerwen has been receiving. The impression I've got from Boro's posts is that he's had nothing to do with them, but I'd rather that were confirmed if possible.

Sheesh! Every Day there's something in this game...

[Mithalwen]

I wouldn't. I am inclined to believer Boro and Nerwen at the moment and appreciate there may be operational reasons that may limit what it is wise to disclose. Obviously I shall keep an open mind at least until I have read back and see how previous behaviour ties in with current claims

[Nerwen]

So, Lalaith. There's little more about her, really, than what I mentioned already. Neither of our known wolves made any significant reference to her, indeed neither did any player, living or dead- mostly, she is listed under "no idea" , though on Day Three Morm listed her in his "innocent" category, along with me, Firefoot and Sally. , On Day One she cast an early vote on Legate for being "confusing". This would be a safe wolf-on-wolf vote, but who knows?

On Day Two she played a part (though not the only part) in getting the Agan-waggon rolling again (after it had more-or-less ground to a halt); the timing is consistent with an attempt to help Mac, but "consistent with" is all, and she had already theorised about Agan's guilt earlier in the Day:
#259.
Originally Posted by Lalaith
At 2.30am Phantom proposes a lynching of Nogs - then Boro, Loslote follow this - and then, in the last five minutes before deadline, we have Eomer, Shasta and Sally all piling in. Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir. (Form has fallen behind)
So, we have a couple of possible scenarios*. Either Phantom was right - Nogs was furry and Aganzir rightfully saved. Or perhaps Nogs was right and Agan was furry. His guesses might even have been so accurate that the wolves suspected him of being the Seer. Hence the flurry to get him lynched?
Anyway, I am inclined to think that Nogs was innocent, and thus Aganzir is looking suspicious to me as a result of all this.

This is quoted by three other players- Legate at #270, who says she has "good points there" but is overall ambiguous, Mac at #281, who incorporates it into his own case against Agan, and myself at #262 (http://http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697377&postcount=262), where I asked her how she knew both candidates weren't furry. She never replied to this, and indeed that part may have been simply poorly thought out. It may, however have been a minor slip.

Her speculations on the special role might be equivalent to Mac's stats- a way of looking busy and helpful without really doing anything. It is hard to say.

On Day three she argues for Legate as Seer, using, as noted already, the same reasoning as Lottie. After I asked for opinions on other players, particularly Lottie, she said she had become suspicious of her and also of the deceased Mac. #262 (http://http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697377&postcount=262). This was before I revealed what I knew, however I had implied I knew something. She said she "felt good" about Firefoot and had "no idea" about Boro and Eomer. She was impressed by Eomer's Rikae as Seer theory (#496).
Later she readily accepted my revelations about Lottie and Mac. Was equally receptive to Eomer's theory about me having a special role where I Night-kill people by voting them (!) (#520, #527). This was before Lottie confessed and could perhaps have been a tentative look at a way out for a fellow.

Conclusion: Lalaith might have been a wolf, but if so she and her comrades were very careful indeed to leave no strong links between them. Most likely packmates would be Lottie, Mac, and Nog, with Legate as an outside chance. Nothing to link her to any living player.

[mormegil]

I'm saying I'm responsible for the 3rd kill (Mac) on NIGHT 3, and that I also had a decision to make on to take someone else out last night, and decided Lalaith. But I have no way of confirming whether she's a wolf (and so I would request for the dead to check her on their next chance), or if I was wrong and one pack made the same selection.

I was more confident in the Mac choice, and probably took a bigger gamble with Lalaith. I took a shot at someone who was flying under my radar, but also someone who seemed to know too much, but I judged she wasn't the seer.

I wake up to read Boro's reveal!

I want to trust that you will reveal what will be helpful to us but please understand if the powers your wield make me slightly nervous. It seems you can pick a target you suspect and strike at them. My greatest fear on that is it's been one man's opinion as to who to take out without any sure knowledge or even quick way to check the results.

I applaud you for exercising caution on Night 1. I think similar caution should be exercised, else you become a pawn of the wolves. I can understand the Mac kill as I suspected him and we've since been able to confirm with identity with Nerwen. With that said I do think those powers are relatively safe in your hands. I think you are shrewd in judgement but you understand my concerns. Also, would you share why you suspected Lalaith? She seemed innocent to me.

Like Form, I would like to understand more about your powers to make sure you have the best intentions of the village in mind but then I need to trust your judgement on what you should reveal or not. There's a balance you are walking, I'm sure.

I guess I get to check Boro off my suspect list.

So the top 5 suspects on my list today are Nilp, Eomer, Form, Mith, and Shasta in that order.

We have 3 known innocents in Sally, Nerwen and Boro out of 12 total...not bad actually.

Lommy and Kath have been silent today, not sure if it means anything but it's note worthy. A wolf may be a bit silent after the craziness of the last 2 Days...although it looks like all the loud mouths are in the Dead Thread...have you seen the count? :eek::rolleyes:

[Boromir88]

Ok. So, let me esplain, no that will take too long, lemme sum up:

If the wolves are thinking about trying to put doubt to my claims, and get the village to lynch me as a wolf, that theory wouldn't hold, because there is no other explanation for Mac's death other than I assassinated him NIGHT 3 (and I left clues to my activities/thoughts, which I will get to in a moment).

If they want to try to kill me in the night (Ranger don't ever consider protecting me), I may have a another trick, or I may not, that I'm taking to the grave with me. Their choice. No risk. No reward. :p If they convince the village I'm just a wolf who's full of it and I'm lynched, kudos to them, and it would be a rather poor decision for the village to lose a night-time weapon against the wolves.

Let's start with Day 1. If you notice I've been dropping pet names on occasion, that signals my plans, just in case I need to ever go back to use it.

Day 1: I called Nog a "furry-biter" if there was a tied vote I most likely would have decided to kill Nog at night. But he was lynched and I decided now wasn't a good time to make a kill choice. But I had other decisions...

I called the phantom "strategy-maker" and that was a clue that he was someone I trusted (and believed he was an ordo) but since he made such a huge KILL ME sign all day and did get killed by the wolves, nothing special happened. The wolves got to him first.

Day 2: I called Mac "number-cruncher". This was a clue signaling I was debating on targeting Mac the next chance I got, because he was playing like the carefree, "I accept I'm going to be lynched or killed soon" Macwolf that I've seen before. So NIGHT 3 I did decide to make a kill, I had not way of knowing whether I hit a wolf or not, and so an early post from

Day 3:

If I had to put on my guessing hat...Rikae and Legate make the most sense as being wolf-kills. Rikae was widely accepted as an innocent (maybe gifted?), either way, she was a vocal player that was also one of the most trusted in the first couple days. Legate really started going after Greenie, last night, which caught everyone off guard. Agan, took care of Greenie, and if there's a way to discover her role soon, perhaps the wolves were gunning for the Seer.

As far as a pack-kill...Mac is the one that wouldn't make sense. He had been coming under some suspicion, and a growing uneasy feeling. I'm not sure why one of the wolf-packs would target him, unless he tipped off some gifted clue?

I sure hope this special unknown role isn't some maniac assassin. It would be nice to have a weapon against the wolves that can bite them in the night, but it would be most dreadful if it was just kind of blind night-time killer. This could be a really quick game if there's 2 wolf packs, and a blood-thirsty night maniac. It begs the question is this only a once every other night killer? Or maybe that "individual itch" in the DAY 2 narration was the hint, that the target (either Rune or the phantom) was the same, and thus only 2 kills.

This is all me trying to tell people I killed Mac, but I had no way of knowing if I hit a wolf. So, I'm poking fun at myself as some kind of maniac assassin (I only criticize how I play my role, I wouldn't do it if it's not my role to play). I wasn't going to say anything yet, because I didn't know Mac's role and I could have just put us in a terrible spot with 5 deaths in one full DAY/NIGHT turn.

Later on Nerwen though revealed Mac and Lottie were wolves. And I must say I was jumping up and down with glee. And today, since I think the more information the better, I'm saying I targeted Lalaith last night, but like the previous night with Mac...I have no way of confirming her role. All I know is I was 98% confident she wasn't the seer, and yet she seemed to know a little too much. I'll try to go back and find her post talking about Lottie and Mac, but I'm pressed for time and wont be back from work until about an hour before the DL again.

Now yesterday I actually called Eomer "den-dweller" and my idea was to follow my pattern of pet names. I didn't like the way he was talking about lynching the lovers earlier, but I decided rather later to go for Lalaith, because I always still remember Mith's words from being a wolf "don't act like you know so much."

I'm really at a loss on who to lynch today and I won't be around to defend myself from any dubious wolves who might want to try to take a stab at claiming I'm full of it and get me lynched. If that's the case, so be it, but I figured this information now will help in a lynch today and thus decided to come out. Yes, I'm still keeping certain things secret, but I have my own reasons.

[Nerwen]

Boro, I had actually thought you might be the secret role for some time, and I don't doubt your reveal, and that you are not on the side of the wolves. I hope you'll understand, though, if I point out that we can't really be sure you're on the side of the village. Just something everyone needs to bear in mind.

[Thinlómien]

On my phone again - having a busy day so I'll only be around in the European late evening/night.

Quick comment:

When I first read Boro's reveal in the morning I was quite doubtful but his newest post makes me feel better about his reveal - I'm not saying he couldn't have planned a fake reveal as a wolf since day 1 but it's maybe not the likeliest explanation. Also I'm not sure how eager a wolf would be to fake reveal and set himself up for the other pack's next night kill.

(I'm having a horrible idea of Nerwen and Boro being wolves together. :eek:I haven't done the maths today but I would think that a little too risky for them.)

Not sure what to make of the night kills. Firefoot was in the middle of controversy created by wolf-Lottie. Lalaith I thought was killed because nobody was really suspecting her and she would've been a plausible ranger candidate, but now that Boro's claimed responsibility over that (not sure I'm very grateful about that - Lalaith was one of the people I trusted the most) the speculation is over. I guess our ranger made a save last night then. Well done and good to know you're still alive!

I'll be back and properly around in 5-7h.

[Nerwen]

You know what would be hilarious? If Rikae and Legate were both Seer-impersonating wolves who managed to fool their rivals a little too well.:cool:

Anyway, from what I can work out, we should be looking for the remaining wolves amongst the following people:

Formendacil
McCaber
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Mithalwen
Kath



This is assuming Boro and Sally are telling the truth, of course, but there's good reason to think so.

Edit: x'd with Lommy.

[Nerwen]

I guess our ranger made a save last night then. Well done and good to know you're still alive!
Actually, the Ranger could have been killed last Night and still made a save- that's the way it usually works, isn't it? But let's hope not.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well... things appear to be going well.

There's a bunch of people I've been overlooking recently, and most of them are pretty suspicious. I still have uneasy feelings toward Form and, though I'm not sure this has ever happened, I'm even starting to feel bad about Nilp! Sorry cuz! :p

Nerwen and Boro and Sally, hmm.

Shasta and Lommy are not setting off any alarm bells. That's very weird for me, normally I enjoy their deaths immensely (;)) so I'm not sure if I'm being hoodwinked or not.

[mormegil]

You know what would be hilarious? If Rikae and Legate were both Seer-impersonating wolves who managed to fool their rivals a little too well.:cool:

Anyway, from what I can work out, we should be looking for the remaining wolves amongst the following people:

Formendacil
McCaber
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Mithalwen
Kath



This is assuming Boro and Sally are telling the truth, of course, but there's good reason to think so.

Edit: x'd with Lommy.

Any reason you are leaving off Lommy, Eomer, and Shashta? Both Eomer and Shashta are some of my suspects and I don't overlook Lommy.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I was already leaning toward Morm being innocent after the Loslote interactions earlier in the game. He needs to re-assess his priorities, though. :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Another thought about the Lovers: we will not be informed when/if one returns from the Dead, correct? So the one that returns will not need to post in the thread but can instead just relay all info to the living Lover via PM.

This might be unlikely but it might also be happening right now.

[Nerwen]

Any reason you are leaving off Lommy, Eomer, and Shashta? Both Eomer and Shashta are some of my suspects and I don't overlook Lommy.
Of course. They're cute. Lommy is a dear little penguin, Eomer is a fluffy-widdle puppy warg, and sure you don't expect me to lynch my king?:Merisu:
I would have left Nilp off, too, save for his sorely-deluded views on koalas.

...Er, I mean, no, I can't tell you. The riddle-message I was sent indicates a certain course of action, but that's as much as I say just now.

Edit:x'd with Eomer.

[mormegil]

Another thought about the Lovers: we will not be informed when/if one returns from the Dead, correct? So the one that returns will not need to post in the thread but can instead just relay all info to the living Lover via PM.

This might be unlikely but it might also be happening right now.

Not sure, I had understood the returned lover could indeed post that one day but I may misunderstand the role.

[Mithalwen]

Well... things appear to be going well.

There's a bunch of people I've been overlooking recently, and most of them are pretty suspicious. I still have uneasy feelings toward Form and, though I'm not sure this has ever happened, I'm even starting to feel bad about Nilp! Sorry cuz! :p

Nerwen and Boro and Sally, hmm.

Shasta and Lommy are not setting off any alarm bells. That's very weird for me, normally I enjoy their deaths immensely (;)) so I'm not sure if I'm being hoodwinked or not.

I think he means that they can post but not obliged too and could be merely passing on information via the lover who never died. Since we are honour bound not to examine the dead thread and its post cound we wouldn't notice an absence there.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, I wouldn't mind being lynched. I'm sure you all know that. :)

In fact, I'll help you along by giving you something I found in my rudimentary analysis of the votes.

('Known' innocents in italics, 'known' baddies in underline. Other than that, no time to make it look fancy. Apologies to the fans of my formatting (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=657686&postcount=188) skills (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=609704&postcount=200).)

DAY 1

Nilp -> Nilp
Rune -> Form
morm -> Mac
Lalaith -> Legate
Kath -> Form 2
Aganzir -> Lommy
Lommy -> Aganzir
Legate -> Greenie
Nogrod -> Agan 2
Form -> Form 3
Mith -> Agan 3
McCaber -> Agan 4
Firefoot -> Gwath
Boro -> Nog
Rikae -> Lommy 2
Mac -> Agan 5
TP -> Nog 2
Lottie -> Nog 3
Eomer -> Nog 4
Shasta -> Nog 5
Sally -> Nog 6

With the knowledge of Agan's role, the Nogawagon people weren't trying to save a Wolf (one of my indicators for Wolvish voting activity, and the more useful indicator in this game). It sure would be nice to know Noggie's role, though.

DAY 2

Lottie -> morm
Nerwen -> Mac
Greenie -> Aganzir
Lalaith -> Agan 2
Lommy -> Agan 3
Legate -> Greenie
McCaber -> Agan
morm -> Mac
Agan -> Greenie 2
Mac -> Agan 4
Firefoot -> Mac 3
Nilp -> Agan 5
Mith -> Rikae
Rikae -> Greenie 3
Eomer -> Agan 6
Boro -> Agan 7
Shasta -> Lottie

I, Nilp, put Agan in a firm lead ahead of Greenie and (more importantly) Mac. So I guess I'd see why you'd say you think Mac and I are Packmates.

What was that? You said nothing of the sort? And what do you mean, have I forgotten the fifth amendment?

(Also, for what it's worth, this is twice that Eomer's been among the last voters for a lethal bandwaggon. Well, thrice, counting...)

DAY 3

Everyone -> Lottie
Lottie -> Firefoot

Yeah, not much to see there.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, that wasn't helpful. And my opinion of y'all hasn't changed (so far) since yesterDAY. Which means I'm most suspicious of cousin Eomer, then McCaber, but they're not so much suspicions of evil as ill-defined feelings of untrustworthiness.

...So yep, I'm still the best lynch victim available toDAY. :D

Anyway, I'm going to bed. Would someone mind putting the details in the Dead extra vote communication thing? I have the list of probable scries here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=698365&postcount=605).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Having been a lover in the previous Mandos game, if it's at all like the first one Kuru will mention someone being resurrected in the narration. Since he hasn't, I think it's fair to assume that both Lovers and the Ranger are still alive (provided, of course, that neither Firefoot nor Lalaith is a Lover or Ranger as they haven't had a chance to resurrect yet.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Of course. They're cute. Lommy is a dear little penguin, Eomer is a fluffy-widdle puppy warg, and sure you don't expect me to lynch my king?:Merisu:
I would have left Nilp off, too, save for his sorely-deluded views on koalas.

...Er, I mean, no, I can't tell you. The riddle-message I was sent indicates a certain course of action, but that's as much as I say just now.

Edit:x'd with Eomer.

Also I must say I'm having a lot of fun with the mental image of Eomer as a "fluffy-widdle puppy warg". Spot on, she who rules the waves. :Merisu:

[Nerwen]

Also I must say I'm having a lot of fun with the mental image of Eomer as a "fluffy-widdle puppy warg". Spot on, she who rules the waves. :Merisu:
Why, thank you, O Monarch of the Watery Deep.:Merisu:

[Nerwen]

Did I mention it looks as though tp was indeed innocent?

[Nerwen]

Now I may have some more to add later. For now, though, in case I can't get online again, I'll just say that the Ranger had better not waste a protection on me. Among other things I don't think I'll be getting any more pms anyway and we've got (effectively) a whole bunch of known innocents now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'd have to concur with McCaber's post #602 and suppose that it's highly likely that Boro killed Lalaith.

Depending on the Ranger situation - and obviously the Ranger will know best - it doesn't seem unlikely that Nerwen would have been protected last night, or that she would have been targetted. If so then it's still very plausible that we have two wolf-packs still (or maybe not if Lalaith was the last of hers?) Still, I'd love to know what the Ranger's been up to as it might give an indication of how many wolves remain.

I'm babbling. I don't do responsibility well. :rolleyes:

[mormegil]

Still, I'd love to know what the Ranger's been up to as it might give an indication of how many wolves remain.



I'm curious on this part Eomer. How would the benefit of knowing who the ranger has protected and if they were successful last night, as I think it sounds like, outweigh having the ranger in the open? Yes it would give us one known innocent but it would remove a powerful member of the team within a Night or two. Granted they would come back somewhat more powerful but again would last a limited amount of time. As you say the ranger would know best but I find it odd that you are requesting the ranger to tell us what they've been up to.

[Kath]

I am on a residential trip with no wifi access and limited signal!

Therefore I am simply going to vote. I will not be around for Nerwen to explain what she knows, so I am going take her list at face value and vote for the person at the top.

++Formendacil[/QUOTE]

My sincere apologies for non attendance. Bad timing.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Morm, I'm simply wondering out loud about the status of the Ranger last night and if we could learn anything certain from such info. If we can indeed pin the Lalaith-kill on Boro, which seems very reasonable at the moment, then it would be lovely to know if one of the packs has been eliminated.

But I don't see any sure way to get that info today.

In any case, are we going to arrange something similar to what happened yesterday, so we can get some info from the Dead?

For what it's worth, I'm also much concerned by Formendacil, so I approve of Kath's vote - random though it may have been.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm totally unsuited to such schemes, but: :p

So, the Dead will have found out about either: Phantom, Nogrod, Rune, Legate or Rikae. Not Mac and not Agan as that would be wasteful; hopefully not Phantom as we seem to know about him already, but the Dead were not to know that this info was forthcoming.

So that's 10 options to spread around 12 voting villagers. No problem. We even have two more spaces for wacky possibilities, like: empower X if you know Kuru is still alive and planning something devilish.

[mormegil]

Yes and give two options per person. We could have the 3 known be separate if needed. Which it will likely need be. Certainly not 100% fool proof but worth the shot. It was nice to learn of Greene that way.

I'm totally unsuited to such schemes, but: :p

So, the Dead will have found out about either: Phantom, Nogrod, Rune, Legate or Rikae. Not Mac and not Agan as that would be wasteful; hopefully not Phantom as we seem to know about him already, but the Dead were not to know that this info was forthcoming.

So that's 10 options to spread around 12 voting villagers. No problem. We even have two more spaces for wacky possibilities, like: empower X if you know Kuru is still alive and planning something devilish.

[Formendacil]

Well, that was less to catch up on than I was expecting--I guess Monday is a busy day (and/or all the talkative people are over on the Dead Thread).

It seems that Boro has declined to establish or deny a connection to Nerwen's PM--fair enough, even if I'd have preferred at least a verbal "I'm not going to confirm or deny it."

Looking at the current List of the Living, here are my current impressions:

Definitely Innocent:
Formendacil
satansaloser2005

--I suppose the theoretical possibility exists that Sally is faking being the lover, but I don't see that this is at all likely unless the Lovers both died right away, in which case how would the wolf playing at it even know that?

Most Likely Innocent:
Boromir88
Nerwen

--It's possible Boro is not the Special Role, but that's not why I put him here. I'm willing to believe he is; my tiny hesitation is due more to the fact that I don't know if the Special Role is on the side of the Village. It keeps making me thinking Werebear more than any other existing role, with a few special twists to make up for the fact that the Bear has no team. I don't think it likely, but I do think it possible.

Nerwen's apparent innocence is, similarly, convincing but not definitive. Not knowing where her PM came from (something that she may be forbidden to reveal anyway or which may have come through the proxy of our late, beloved Kuru), it's not impossible that she IS a wolf AND has relayed all information about this PM in complete, transparent honesty. Again, though, the fact that her lycanthropy remains possible isn't sufficient reason to think that it is.

The Rest:
Eomer of the Rohirrim
McCaber
mormegil
Thinlómien
Nilpaurion Felagund
Kath
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen

--These are in order of most suspicious to least suspicious, but it's no more than a Hobbit's cubit between the first and last of them.

The frustrating thing is that we don't know how many wolves are left--let alone which packs. If we've actually eliminated an entire pack (hence the one death less), then we could have as few as one wolf in eight here. On the other hand, if both packs are alive and one simply failed (either via Ranger kill or by going for the same target) to get its victim, AND assuming that we've killed two wolves in Lottie and Mac, we could have as many as four wolves left--a 1 in 2 statistic out of these remaining eight.

That seems less likely, simply going by gut feeling. One thing I wonder about is the Ranger. If the Ranger is still alive, their self-revelation would give us a third Known Innocent AND a record of their protections/guesses. Which is not to say that I think the Ranger should out themself (especially if they think we still have something like 4 wolves abroad), but I'm wondering if we could examine our recent dead and find a Ranger candidate. If I understand the rules aright, they have to remain dead a complete Day (so anyone lynched yesterDay or killed last Night would be a candidate) and could return. Both of last night's kills, Lalaith and Firefoot don't seem completely implausible (Lottie does seem to be rather beyond the pale there). And, in any case, it's probably worth going over their posts again just in case there's something to be found that might suggest Giftedness--even in Lalaith's case, if Boro *IS* on our side, nothing yet suggests he's omniscient, and who knows if he might have coincided with a kill from a wolfpack.

[Formendacil]

I'm totally unsuited to such schemes, but: :p

So, the Dead will have found out about either: Phantom, Nogrod, Rune, Legate or Rikae. Not Mac and not Agan as that would be wasteful; hopefully not Phantom as we seem to know about him already, but the Dead were not to know that this info was forthcoming.

So that's 10 options to spread around 12 voting villagers. No problem. We even have two more spaces for wacky possibilities, like: empower X if you know Kuru is still alive and planning something devilish.

If we want ten-for-ten we could subtract Boro and Sally, our two "Known Roles" (well, more so than the rest--substitute Nerwen in place of one of them, if you prefer) and leave the ten votes for the ten unknowns. We could do a strict alphabetical correspondence.:

Aganzir..........................................E omer of the Rohirrim
A Little Green................................Formendacil
Firefoot.........................................K ath
Lalaith........................................... McCaber
Legate of Amon Lanc....................Mithalwen
Macalaure.....................................morm egil
Nogrod..........................................Ne rwen
Rikae............................................. Nilpaurion Felagund
Rune Son of Bjarne.......................Shastanis Althreduin
the phantom.................................Thinlómien
If his vote is for a known wolf.......Boromir88
If her vote is for a known wolf......satansaloser2005


A similar scheme (put the Living column in reverse alphabetical order, swap out Nerwen for Boro, etc) could easily be mocked up.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm not sure what to make of that from Form. I mean, there's no way a wolf has missed what's gone down today; but I guess evil-Form would make such an effort to paint himself as an ignorant innocent.

So is it genuine? Or a bold attempt at disguise?

[Thinlómien]

...? what???

Form, what are you suggesting?

Say, the dead empower Kath, then Firefoot what?? Is one whose role is known by the dead? But is she innocent or guilty???

[Formendacil]

...? what???

Form, what are you suggesting?

Say, the dead empower Kath, then Firefoot what?? Is one whose role is known by the dead? But is she innocent or guilty???

Heh. I actually got so caught up in lining up names alphabetically, I forgot about making anything actually WORK.

That said, I think it could be made to work. If we ask that the Dead confirm one of their number as known Wolf, we could potentially discover a third wolf (which tangentially makes me realise that Loslote was somehow left off my list. I guess only Sally gets left off--or should it be Boro, since he seems to have special knowledge).

Or is it better to discover a definitive innocent among the Dead? Depending on who it is--and I assume the Dead would have inquired about the most interesting names first--that might be more valuable for us in looking over the voting records.

[Thinlómien]

(yeah, that's how I feel like, not knowing anything and having to trust people with really weird reveals - and not really having the time to mull them over - and having probably been wrong about the three people I've suspected the most - Agan the Hunter, Sally the Lover and Boro the Itch Man /end rant)

So assuming no one who's done a reveal is lying and we can trust the dead and some common sense:

Alive Innocent
Sally
Nerwen
Boro
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

Alive Unknown
Form
McCaber
morm
Nilp
Mith
Kath

Dead Innocent
Aganzir
Greenie
the phantom
Firefoot

Dead Unknown
Rikae
Nogrod
Rune
Lalaith
Legate

Dead Guilty
Mac
Lottie

The good thing is that if we've been doing badly this far (Lottie and Mac would be the only wolves we've got rid of), then we have a 2/3 chance of bagging a wolf toDay. That is of some comfort.

Personally, I'm the most worried about kawaii Nilp and McSneaky. Form and morm have seemed like their innocent selves throughout the game - and now Form is so confused I'm not sure he can be a wolf and morm has been helpfully sharp in a way that genuinely suggests an innocent trying to think things through. Mith and Kath? Not much data, but I kind of think both would be more involved as wolves...

[Thinlómien]

Heh. I actually got so caught up in lining up names alphabetically, I forgot about making anything actually WORK.

That said, I think it could be made to work. If we ask that the Dead confirm one of their number as known Wolf, we could potentially discover a third wolf (which tangentially makes me realise that Loslote was somehow left off my list. I guess only Sally gets left off--or should it be Boro, since he seems to have special knowledge).

Or is it better to discover a definitive innocent among the Dead? Depending on who it is--and I assume the Dead would have inquired about the most interesting names first--that might be more valuable for us in looking over the voting records.
Not sure I understand. We can't ask the dead to give us a dead wolf's name, because they might not have any.

What if we just upgrade Firefoot's scheme [original version (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697939&postcount=493)] from yesterDay:

(just deleted dead people from the voting options and replaced the phantom and Greenie with Rikae and Legate)

If Nog is a wolf, give your extra vote to Form or McCaber
If Nog is innocent, give your extra vote to Nerwen
If Rikae is a wolf, give your extra vote to Boro
If Rikae is innocent, give your extra vote to Lommy
If Legate is a wolf, give your extra vote to Eomer or morm
If Legate is innocent, give your extra vote to Nilp or shasta
If Rune is a wolf, give your extra vote to Mith or Kath
If Rune is innocent, give your extra vote to Sally

I think this will create the least confusion, in case the dead have started voting already (TIMEZONES) and I don't think it's implausible they went with Firefoot's scheme again if the person they scried was on it...

I also strongly suggest figuring this out in the first half of the Day toMorrow.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm hopeful that today's votes are gonna give us more to go on. I can't tell anything about McCaber, Mith, Kath or Nilp at the moment. Morm has very interesting interactions with both Loslote and Mac early in the game; normally I'd be very suspicious of this but in a game like this I can't tell if wolves would be covering their tracks in such a way from Day 1. I think it's probable that he's innocent.

My opinion on Form changes by the minute.

[Thinlómien]

The only vote toDay yet is Kath for Form?

I need to go to sleep soon (I know; I only just came back!), so if anyone's around, which one of Nerwen's options would you prefer?

They were

Form
McCaber
morm
Nilp
Mith
Kath

Personally I'd actually prefer a stab in the dark with Nilp or McCaber, as I said in my list post. The rest of you guys actually seem fairly innocent to me. It's pretty optimistic to think there are only two wolves remaining though...

Argh.

Somebody bring forwards a good argument against somebody? I'm at loss.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lommy, I'm concerned Nerwen is away for the day without voting. I forget where she's based, but doesn't she normally vote early in the day? Might be better to pair her up with someone else in your scheme.

It would be nice to know that everyone is voting today.

[mormegil]

I was going to post something similar to what Lommy posted and I'm thoroughly confused by Form. The outline he laid out would be impractical as we know some of the role already of those who he proposed. Plus with only an option of one it creates a situation that makes it more possible to have a negative outcome. His behavior is extremely odd. He's quickly overtaking Eomer and Nilp for my top spot.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy, I'm concerned Nerwen is away for the day without voting. I forget where she's based, but doesn't she normally vote early in the day? Might be better to pair her up with someone else in your scheme.What happens if the dead give an extra vote to a person who didn't vote? I assume we would still be told they picked her?

edi: xed with morm

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Not much has been said since I've been gone. Hm. I'm not a hundred percent on why it's been narrowed down to six (my moon and stars has been busy, it seems), but I'm sure there's some sort of reason behind it. Of the six listed, I'd like to look more closely at Nilp, so I'll probably go and do that.

[mormegil]

What happens if the dead give an extra vote to a person who didn't vote? I assume we would still be told they picked her?

edi: xed with morm

Not sure, but I assume if we don't put a plan together we agree on soon, they won't have time to react.

[Thinlómien]

Not sure, but I assume if we don't put a plan together we agree on soon, they won't have time to react. That's why I suggested continuing Firefoot's scheme as closely as possibly - given that the dead Europeans (*makes a face at Agan if she's reading the living thread*) may well have voted already, they might have gone with Firefoot's scheme since we hadn't come up with a new one. I think I may have muddled it up by removing the phantom though - Nerwen told us only toDay he was innocent, so the dead might well have checked him earlier. But I'm not sure what to change in order not to muddle it up even worse.

#more reasons we should do this earlier toMorrow

[Mithalwen]

I am around but a bit uncertain.. well very uncertain really...

I am inclined to trust Nerwen and Boro probably stupid of me but. I pretty much suspect everyone else

. I still can't see what function Sally's reveal served so am inclined not to trust it implicitly. Kath may well be having the week from Mordor but I gave her the benefit of the doubt too long under comparable circumstances and she was an unavoidably absent wolf. Would hate to vote for my boy but while I love him to bits I can't profess to understand or read Nilp.

morm worries me because apart from the notable occasion when he declared me an innocent in a cross post with my bored confession in Saucepan's game, he normally reads me correctly. And unsubstantiated accusations of suspicious posting are.. well suspicious. And of course I know I am not a wolf. The others I am yet to get a handle on... maybe I am just very rusty. But given the timezone compatibility I have had a reist earlier and am now had a usualy ill advised midnight strong coffee... you do realise that I am sacrificing the good worl of six months good "sleep hygiene" after 15 years insomnia for this... oh well self inflicted injury can't expect sympathy.

[mormegil]

Not sure I understand. We can't ask the dead to give us a dead wolf's name, because they might not have any.

What if we just upgrade Firefoot's scheme [original version (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697939&postcount=493)] from yesterDay:

(just deleted dead people from the voting options and replaced the phantom and Greenie with Rikae and Legate)

If Nog is a wolf, give your extra vote to Form or McCaber
If Nog is innocent, give your extra vote to Nerwen
If Rikae is a wolf, give your extra vote to Boro
If Rikae is innocent, give your extra vote to Lommy
If Legate is a wolf, give your extra vote to Eomer or morm
If Legate is innocent, give your extra vote to Nilp or shasta
If Rune is a wolf, give your extra vote to Mith or Kath
If Rune is innocent, give your extra vote to Sally

I think this will create the least confusion, in case the dead have started voting already (TIMEZONES) and I don't think it's implausible they went with Firefoot's scheme again if the person they scried was on it...

I also strongly suggest figuring this out in the first half of the Day toMorrow.

I saw this is our best option for now and we go with it as a guide for the dead to use.

[Thinlómien]

If Nog is a wolf, give your extra vote to Form or McCaber
If Nog is innocent, give your extra vote to Lottie or Nerwen
If phantom is a wolf, give your extra vote to Boro
If phantom is innocent, give your extra vote to Lommy
If Rikae is a wolf, give your extra vote to Eomer
If Rikae is innocent, give your extra vote to morm
If Legate is innocent, give your extra vote to Nilp
If Legate is guilty, give your extra vote to Shasta
If Rune is a wolf, give your extra vote to Mith or Kath
If Rune is innocent, give your extra vote to Sally

This way if the dead followed Firefoot's original instructions from yesterDay while voting, we would still get the correct result. (Unless they scried someone who wasn't on the instructions yesterDay, and had to improvise.)

The worst thing about the scheme above is that the dead are going to add a total wild card to the lynch vote toDay.

[Formendacil]

Not sure I understand. We can't ask the dead to give us a dead wolf's name, because they might not have any.

To be honest, I'm not sure I understand either. I'm constantly trying to get my mind around how everything in this game works and the normal milestones of a regular game, which I might use to get my bearings, are mostly missing. If we did try to salvage my scheme, they would at least be able to give us the name of Mac or Lottie if they had no other wolves--and if they did, that would be evidence (though not quite confirmation) that no other wolves were still alive.

What if we just upgrade Firefoot's scheme [original version (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697939&postcount=493)] from yesterDay:

That's fine with me--it does seem to have been better thought out than mine. It doesn't invalidate using it, but I agree with Eomer that we may have to consider Nerwen a lost voice this late in the day.

Morm and Eomer both seem to find me very confusing. Fair enough: I find Eomer suspicious and Morm oddly under my radar for someone who both posts a fair bit and finds me suspicious. The whole metaphor of being under the radar is that of concealment, so I sort of do worry about Morm, but not for any particular reason I can lay my finger on (well, other than suspicion of me, but that's hard a ground on which I can convince anyone else).

[Thinlómien]

Okay I need to go very soon. Voting Nilp in 10 minutes unless someone has a very convincing argument or I get magically enlightened while brushing my teeth.

Also I strongly advocate my newer suggestion for the dead thread communication to minimize confusion, as it involves the phantom whom the dead may have checked last Night even though it isn't that helpful to us anymore. (Unless we learn he was a wolf and we need to question everything Nerwen said...?)


edit: xed with Form

[satansaloser2005]

Hello. *whimpers* I'm here.

I'm going to catch up a bit, but the odds of me being terribly useless toDay are slim to none due to work and other plans.

I'll be back in a bit.

[Mithalwen]

Okay I need to go very soon. Voting Nilp in 10 minutes unless someone has a very convincing argument or I get magically enlightened while brushing my teeth.

Also I strongly advocate my newer suggestion for the dead thread communication to minimize confusion, as it involves the phantom whom the dead may have checked last Night even though it isn't that helpful to us anymore. (Unless we learn he was a wolf and we need to question everything Nerwen said...?)


edit: xed with Form

I certainly think a decision should be made and stuck to.

[mormegil]

If Nog is a wolf, give your extra vote to Form or McCaber
If Nog is innocent, give your extra vote to Lottie or Nerwen
If phantom is a wolf, give your extra vote to Boro
If phantom is innocent, give your extra vote to Lommy
If Rikae is a wolf, give your extra vote to Eomer
If Rikae is innocent, give your extra vote to morm
If Legate is innocent, give your extra vote to Nilp
If Legate is guilty, give your extra vote to Shasta
If Rune is a wolf, give your extra vote to Mith or Kath
If Rune is innocent, give your extra vote to Sally

This way if the dead followed Firefoot's original instructions from yesterDay while voting, we would still get the correct result. (Unless they scried someone who wasn't on the instructions yesterDay, and had to improvise.)

The worst thing about the scheme above is that the dead are going to add a total wild card to the lynch vote toDay.

I'm okay with final version...everyone else?

[satansaloser2005]

I'm okay with final version...everyone else?

Dropping in long enough to say I'm okay with this.

[Formendacil]

Good enough for me.

[mormegil]

morm worries me because apart from the notable occasion when he declared me an innocent in a cross post with my bored confession in Saucepan's game, he normally reads me correctly. And unsubstantiated accusations of suspicious posting are.. well suspicious.

There is a reason I've done that dear Mith and you are somebody I read well. I needed to put some suspicion on you to get a better read. Please forgive the no substance accusations of you, they were necessary for me to know where you stand. I am leaning innocent now based on your reactions.

[mormegil]

Good enough for me.

Dead thread, it sounds like we have a quorum.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Why Nilp, though? Anything about his votes or interactions, or just a general sense of discomfort that he's survived this long?

As a fellow Warg-enthusiast, and my cousin, I am uneasy about him being the 'shot in the dark.'

[satansaloser2005]

Why Nilp, though? Anything about his votes or interactions, or just a general sense of discomfort that he's survived this long?

As a fellow Warg-enthusiast, and my cousin, I am uneasy about him being the 'shot in the dark.'

The same goes for me. I'm honestly concerned about both the vote for Form and the vote for Nilp. They seem rather baseless to me. I know Kath can't return to explain, but could someone enlighten me on why Nilp is perhaps so sinister?

[satansaloser2005]

Also, I just caught Boro's reveal post. That's certainly interesting. Anyone else care to reveal any secrets while we're here? :Merisu:

[Thinlómien]

Well, Nerwen gave us the list of options.

Out of those, morm and Form seem innocent to me.

Kath and Mith have posted too little to judge anything by.

That leaves McCaber, who is a tiny bit fishy. Hard to explain why, but something about him strikes me as not genuine, and it's for example interesting how he got stuck on talking about me and Agan, or how toDay he decided to focus on Lalaith (not his pack's choice so safe ground for analyzing?)

The other person left is Nilp. He just seems too nice and innocent to actually be nice and innocent? I mean, that's how he's wolfed his way through a game before.

Now that I started typing I actually made McCaber sound more suspicious to myself. I may vote him after all.

(Yeah, not going sleep, got stuck discussing the Game of Thrones writers' questionable adaptational choices on tumblr...)


edit: xed with Sally's latter

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm leaning toward voting Form myself. But I'll wait around to see if anyone else offers some bright ideas.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, if you guys don't want to lynch Nilp, I think

++McCaber

is a better option than Form.

In any case, remember that a tie means no lynch, and the dead may still provide an extra vote somewhere. Be careful.

[Formendacil]

Lommy's reasoning seems to come down to no more than this:

Personally I'd actually prefer a stab in the dark with Nilp or McCaber, as I said in my list post.

A stab in the dark isn't the worst idea ever--particularly if you weed out the Probable Innocents--but we're not even in a d Day 1 situation of having an idea of what odds that is. Mind you, it's not like we'll know one way or another unless the game comes to a sudden end overNight.

My own preference right now is the vote for Eomer, on the grounds of not being an Innocent and seeming the most suspicious by a slight margin. My main problem with him is along the lines of something Nilp said earlier today:

(Also, for what it's worth, this is twice that Eomer's been among the last voters for a lethal bandwaggon. Well, thrice, counting...)


Voting record is the fallback for discerning furriness in a regular game and in the absence of anything else, I'll stick with it here.

Boro also had some concern about him:

Now yesterday I actually called Eomer "den-dweller" and my idea was to follow my pattern of pet names. I didn't like the way he was talking about lynching the lovers earlier, but I decided rather later to go for Lalaith, because I always still remember Mith's words from being a wolf "don't act like you know so much."

For what it's worth, I can see Eomer being the sort to ignore the sort of advice Boro is quoting of Mith.


Mind you, Nilp raised the same concern about himself--self-deprecating or not, he has a point:


I, Nilp, put Agan in a firm lead ahead of Greenie and (more importantly) Mac. So I guess I'd see why you'd say you think Mac and I are Packmates.


X-ed with Sally, Lommy, Eomer, and Lommy.

[satansaloser2005]

Here's a wacky notion. We recall the way Lottie jumped at Morm when he jumped at me for my thoughts on Rune. It occurred to me as I was reading through some of her posts that she might have been setting up for some solid wolf-on-wolf with that exchange. I don't have time to properly cite posts and such, alas, but I've seen Lottie pull some conniving moves, and the way she defended me and began suspecting Morm seems rather wolfy to me. That combined with my own general uneasiness with Morm this game makes him pretty high on my suspect list.

Speaking of which, I'll make that in a moment.


x'd since my last

[mormegil]

The same goes for me. I'm honestly concerned about both the vote for Form and the vote for Nilp. They seem rather baseless to me. I know Kath can't return to explain, but could someone enlighten me on why Nilp is perhaps so sinister?

While it's been great to be back on the Downs in general, it's been very exciting to be back in werewolf. With the changes in life since my WW prime I have less time to do deep analysis. With that said I have read every word at least once. I think through the years I've developed a better sense of people and how to read them. So I may not do the analysis in writing but rather the body of work is stored in my mind. It comes in general feelings and impressions. Hey I was right about Mac on Day 1! It's certainly not fool proof but it's all I have time to offer.

With that said both Nilp and Eomer haven't been sitting right for some time now. Form to a lesser degree but much more so i the last few posts. I will likely vote Nilp.

[Thinlómien]

Form, Nerwen asked us not to vote Eomer toDay. If you trust her, you should vote either Nilp, McCaber, Morm, Kath, Mith or yourself.

Good night, folks, it's 3.15 am in Finland!

[mormegil]

Here's a wacky notion. We recall the way Lottie jumped at Morm when he jumped at me for my thoughts on Rune. It occurred to me as I was reading through some of her posts that she might have been setting up for some solid wolf-on-wolf with that exchange. I don't have time to properly cite posts and such, alas, but I've seen Lottie pull some conniving moves, and the way she defended me and began suspecting Morm seems rather wolfy to me. That combined with my own general uneasiness with Morm this game makes him pretty high on my suspect list.

Speaking of which, I'll make that in a moment.


x'd since my last

Fairly wacky indeed. I don't see the benefit of wolves in the same pack going after each other in this game, especially so early. Remember at this stage we didn't have any known wolves so it doesn't make sense to me. It wasn't until this point that Lottie began to be suspicious to many. Again, why the risk of wolf on wolf. I think it was an attempt on her part to cast doubt on me, it seems to be working posthumously. This certainly doesn't acquit me of guilt but I cannot see that a wolf one wolf interaction would have occurred so early on.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Are you guys honestly not getting what Nerwen was telling us today? :confused:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Nilp

#122 - Nilp's first post of the game that references him being suspicious of anyone, calling out Mac for
pooh-poohing (is that a word? It is now!) phantom's plan of transferring information from the Dead to the Living without suggesting an alternative or even a modification to the original.

It's interesting to me that Mac is the first person Nilp elects to go after, given what we (think we) know about Mac now. It's hard to say - I certainly wouldn't put it past Nilp to suspect his packmate, but the feel of the suspicion here (based as it is on information) feels genuine. Of course, we have two wolfpacks, so it being a genuine suspicion doesn't in and of itself absolve Nilp of wolfery... bah. Moving on.

#210 - Nilp's first list. There's a bit of a sameness to this list, honestly, between people he's neutral (?) on and people he has no read on. The only definitive people he might suspect here, as far as I can tell, are -

Swarm of killer beers [sic]

Aganzir
Thinlómien - The Finnish friends' little spat... well, they are friends, and I generally have a shorter fuse when it comes to my friends. But I echo others' sentiment that it looks Wolf-on-Wolf. (Remember, 'Wolf-on-Wolf' in this village doesn't necessarily mean 'artificially contrived'. Two Packs!) I trust Lommy more because list.
Nogrod - Oh, man... I initially had him in the previous section (pulling out the Voltaire quote even), but... his vehement argument against some form of clue-giving between the living and the Dead is troubling. Post-Mandos game trauma?


Agan and Lommy had been talked about for most of the latter part of the day, as I recall. As far as Nog goes, I think this might be a teensy bit of misrepresentation. Nog surely wasn't shy about pointing out the possible pitfalls of a plan (that's a lot of p's) to derive information from the dead thread, but I don't know if I'd go so far as to say he was arguing against doing it entirely.


Day 2:

#255 - Nilp is less certain that Nog was evil (possibly just stubborn). Also, Agan might exonerated on the grounds that

Anyway, surely, no one can be that blatantly evil, especially in a game like this, where losing one of the Pack would put the rest under immense pressure to catch an opposing Baddie. Probably.

#377 - Nilp's second list. The only person he's suspicious of is Agan. Again, Agan was pretty much the lynch target du jour all day long - Nilp does have this to say regarding his own reason for voting her, however;

Aganzir - I have an evil(!) idea drafted called 'Agan as test case' where knowledge of her role and Nogrod would help clear up plenty of confusion regarding yesterDAY's vote. Since she remains fairly suspicious, I'd not mind going through with this plan. I'd most likely vote for her toDAY


Still, I find it a tad strange how seemingly detached he is.



I'll cut this short and post it so people can start reading - it's only 2 hours till deadline and people have probably been posting while I've been doing this, so I'll need to read that, too...

[satansaloser2005]

Fishy
Morm - For general uneasiness and the (I believe false) rivalry between himself and Wolflote
Mith - I feel an innocent Mith would be less condescending and more willing to listen to others' ideas, but as it is, she immediately refused to take part in the Day 1 discussion of votes and has reacted to various posts (my reveal, for instance) in a way that makes it seem like she's not actually invested in the village's best interest
Kath - For voting Form both Day 1 and toDay when, at least toDay, there were better options
Shasta - For no reason other than I have no idea what he is and therefore he must be evil ;)

Confused
Boro - My prince says he has an uncomfortable tickle, and I'm willing to believe he killed Lal, but it's a matter of whether the itch is his gift or his fur (a decision I can't make toDay)
Nilp - The general read is innocent, but also oddly blank, as if there's not much invested for him in this game (hence leaning innocent, as I feel a Wolfaurion would play more high stakes and less silliness)
Eomer - Holding off toDay at Nerwen's request, and don't really have a read anyway
Lommy - She feels innocent and guilty to me in shifts, which means I need to take time to read through her posts again and make up my flipping mind
Form - He clearly deserves a closer read as well, but I find him rather innocent at the moment

Innocent
McCaber - As previously stated, he feels quite innocent to me (perhaps because there's no cobble for him to McCobbler with this game :p)
Nerwen - Because reasons
Sally - Because reasons


x'd like a way bunch or something

[Formendacil]

Form, Nerwen asked us not to vote Eomer toDay. If you trust her, you should vote either Nilp, McCaber, Morm, Kath, Mith or yourself.

Good night, folks, it's 3.15 am in Finland!

I saw that she didn't put him on her list, but unless I missed something (possible), she had no reason beyond this post:

Of course. They're cute. Lommy is a dear little penguin, Eomer is a fluffy-widdle puppy warg, and sure you don't expect me to lynch my king?:Merisu:
I would have left Nilp off, too, save for his sorely-deluded views on koalas.

...Er, I mean, no, I can't tell you. The riddle-message I was sent indicates a certain course of action, but that's as much as I say just now.

Edit:x'd with Eomer.

Granted, Nerwen could be in possession of information she hasn't revealed, but my understanding was that she had been given the names of two Wolves--not the roles of everyone in the village. And while I'm willing to assume that the reception of this message means she's an innocent, I don't see how it indicates that her guesses are necessarily better than the rest of ours--so I continue to think Eomer suspicious.

That said, if the village prefers to follow the lead of a known innocent, I understand that motivation--I just don't see how it removes a name completely from contention.

[satansaloser2005]

I also have to leave in about ten minutes. I *might* be able to check the Downs, but it's unlikely. I'll try to sneak in a vote, at the least (even if it ends up being a vote purely for the purposes of triggering the dead's information).


x'd with Form

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

All right, Sally, that seems pretty helpful.

Form, Nerwen wasn't the special role. Boro is. Think about it. Either your act is truly stupendous, or you must be innocent.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Nilp, Continued


#552 - Nilp's third list.

Swarm of Killer Beers [sic]

Firefoot - Her death analysis as sharp (way too sharp even, according to Lottie), but in the absence of concrete role/alignment knowledge of the Dead, an analysis of why someone would be killed as a possible Seer seems a useful tool.
Shastanis Althreduin - Werewolf Psychic strikes again? His narrow laser-like focus on certain topics is worrying, but is comprehensive in them.
McCaber - Too focused on the Agan/Lommy war; provided a halfhearted Rune death analysis (although I do understand the halfheartedness. This game is driving me insane.)
Eomer of the Rohirrim - Makes logical arguments against the Agan/Lommy war being suspicious. Is part of the Nogawagon (TM A Little Green). Makes a comment about how laser-like focus on a topic is used to camouflage Wolvish behaviour, but is laser-like in his posts as well (the war and Legate's case against Greenie). Hm?


Firefoot being there is a given after the events of the previous several hours. He also mentions being suspicious of Eomer, McCaber, and myself (I'm assuming, here, that that's what being in that category means) but I'm having trouble figuring out what the reasons are - as far as I can tell, he's suspicious of McCaber and I for being narrowly focused, and Eomer for slight hypocrisy?

#636 - vote analysis post. While there's not a lot regarding suspicions from Nilp here, he does offhandedly mention -

Also, for what it's worth, this is twice that Eomer's been among the last voters for a lethal bandwaggon.

It bothers me a bit that Nilp won't actually come out and say that he's suspicious of Eomer. This feels more like he's throwing the idea out to see if anyone will bite.


Summary - Almost everything Nilp has said thus far has been about the mechanics of the game (roles, the dead thread, plans for getting information, et cetera). I'm not sure that he's suspicious of anyone (except perhaps Eomer), and I do think it's worth noting that Nilp was on both the Nog and Agan wagons just as much as Eomer was, first day self-vote notwithstanding. Or at least I couldn't find anyone Nilp suspected on Day 1 more than Nog.

[Formendacil]

All right, Sally, that seems pretty helpful.

Form, Nerwen wasn't the special role. Boro is. Think about it. Either your act is truly stupendous, or you must be innocent.

I haven't said Nerwen is the special role. As far as I know, though, Boro's revelation did not disprove that she'd received the PMs she says she received. What is it I am missing here?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Good posts, Shasta, and with McCaber and now Form (for different reasons) slipping down my suspicion list, I have no hesitation in thinking about lynching Nilp today.

Kath and Mith are obviously very hard to read.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lommy called me 'kawaii'. I don't know how to respond to that. (http://puu.sh/ihGmU/e9ea6c0c43.gif)

Anyway, do we still have enough votes to lynch me? If some people *cough* are being audacious, I might as well be, even though I'm a helpless and lonely innocent party member.

[Formendacil]

Lommy called me 'kawaii'. I don't know how to respond to that. (http://puu.sh/ihGmU/e9ea6c0c43.gif)

Anyway, do we still have enough votes to lynch me? If some people *cough* are being audacious, I might as well be, even though I'm a helpless and lonely innocent party member.

Are we SURE this game doesn't have a Cobbler? Because at this stage in the game, that's the attitude I'd expect of a Cobbler protecting Wolves.


Since we don't (right? We don't?)--I don't know what to make of this except a wolf trying to plea-bargain his way out. Perhaps Nilp's pack can survive a loss?

Or he's an ordo... I'll grant he feels less innocent to me now, but I'd still rather lynch Eomer or--if we want to go Lommy-style and stab in the dark, I'd rather go McCaber than Nilp. At least Nilp's entertaining.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

It bothers me a bit that Nilp won't actually come out and say that he's suspicious of Eomer. This feels more like he's throwing the idea out to see if anyone will bite.I can't believe you missed the bigger idea I was throwing out--that based on the DAY 2 vote, I look suspicious. :Merisu:

Now, to see if anyone will bite on that.

Are we SURE this game doesn't have a Cobbler? Because at this stage in the game, that's the attitude I'd expect of a Cobbler protecting Wolves.Well... if you're trying to catch Wolves, you're barking up the wrong tree by lynching me, but I assure you you're not lynching a Gifted.

But seriously, normally I'd refute any accusation of me with information. I have very little right now (and even that incriminates me).

Worst case scenario, 6 wolves + 6 villagers now, you lynch me, we lose.

Mid case scenario, the Gifted get to do Gifted things for one more NIGHT.

Best case scenario... well, if you lynch me, the party is not winning the game toDAY. Maybe toNIGHT, though?

_____

Also, DEAD PEOPLE, I echo the other's agreement and would ask you to follow Lommy-chan's list (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=698612&postcount=666). (Just don't mind the name 'Lottie' on the second line.)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I feel like Bilbo among the Trolls just now. I can at least hope that the wolves are (or wolf is) being befuddled by all this - and it might even give us a day extra with our superiors.

++NILPAURION FELAGUND

I'd apologise, cuz, but I know it's what you'd want. :p Also, this is how I signed up in the admin thread.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, goodness gracious. :rolleyes:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Nilp

Best I have to go on, at the moment (although I confess his current attitude is making me second guess myself.)

[mormegil]

Kath -> Form
Lommy -> McCaber
Eomer -> Nilp
Shashta -> Nilp 2

Out of those 3 Nilp is my top then Form, despite the fact I will miss the gifs he keeps posting.

x'ed Shasta, updated list

[Formendacil]

Starting a vote tally, because it's getting to be bedtime and I don't want to just throw away my vote.

Kath -> Formendacil
Thinlómien -> McCaber
Eomer -> Nilp


And, uh, that's it...

None of these options look great to me. Nilp is raising my suspicions, but the thrashings of a wolf accruing lynch votes look a lot like an Ordo trying to stave off village defeat. McCaber raises my suspicions by his quietness, but every WW game ever has a lurker who turns out to be innocent.

I still like Eomer, but there's no point turning this into a FOUR-way race.


X-ed since Eomer's vote. Nilp is now up by one.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Oh, I forgot one way to stave off accusations in this village.

I could reveal myself as a Gifted. No one would know, except the Gifted themselves. And if that Gifted is already Dead (and you wouldn't know that), then I could have you dancing in the palm of my hands. And even if they're alive, they'd have to reveal themselves to refute me, exposing them to all sorts of NIGHT problems.

...

...

...But no, I'm not doing that.

Hope you're still alive, real Gifted people. This one's for you.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If you trust our two reveals (Boro doesn't seem to be around) then don't vote me or McCaber. Lommy voted McCaber but obviously before Sally got here.

[satansaloser2005]

I mean, of the options that are currently available, I guess I find Nilp the most....ridiculous, basically?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I mean, of the options that are currently available, I guess I find Nilp the most....ridiculous, basically?

Any thoughts on Mith or Kath? More for tomorrow, really...

[mormegil]

I don't know what to make of Nilp's self vote. It makes me almost want to believe him but if I feel that way I'm sure others do; so is it a way of self-preservation?

[Formendacil]

If you trust our two reveals (Boro doesn't seem to be around) then don't vote me or McCaber. Lommy voted McCaber but obviously before Sally got here.

I still don't get it. I've missed some post where our Known Innocents said "these people aren't evil" and I'm clearly failing to understand how they would KNOW that. At this point I'd almost rather try to tie the lynching again since killing an innocent is likely to be more fatal than successfully killing a would would be helpful... but I don't see that going anywhere and now is the time for me to vote--before I fall asleep at the computer.

Apparently McCaber is out and Eomer is out... and while suspicious Nilp is the only currently-voted candidate left. The votes stand:

Kath -> Form
Lommy -> McCaber
Eomer -> Nilp
Shasta -> Nilp 2
Nilp -> Nilp 3

That's 5 votes... my vote makes 6... and Nerwen at least may not be timezone-appropriate before the deadline.

++mormegil

I don't really know if he's guilty--I'm barely on the cusp of thinking he is, but he isn't McCaber, he isn't Eomer, he isn't Nilp, and he isn't me--and a couple of people have wondered about him, so maybe I'm not off my rocker in wondering.

[satansaloser2005]

Any thoughts on Mith or Kath? More for tomorrow, really...

Suspicious and worryingly curious respectively. I'd be up for lynching Mith, I suppose? I don't know. I'm not into widening the options unless we can make it count.

[Boromir88]

++Form

Just got in and caught up. His posts look the sketchiest today.

[Nerwen]

May I suggest that it won't accomplish very much for the dead to give a vote to Lottie?

[mormegil]

May I suggest that it won't accomplish very much for the dead to give a vote to Lottie?

Missed that. She is doubled up with you so either way.

[Nerwen]

Now I'm just going to skim the thread before voting. One thing I'd like to suggest is that toMorrow we try to set up a way of asking about Living players? What do you think?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ach, Lommy was sleepy when she made that list. It won't affect anything. ;)

[satansaloser2005]

May I suggest that it won't accomplish very much for the dead to give a vote to Lottie?


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

[mormegil]

++Nilp

I think he has bothered me for a while. His self vote almost changed my mind.

[satansaloser2005]

++Nilp

I can't deny my friends their dreams. ;)

[Nerwen]

Okay, it is now Mr Felagund regardless.

++Nilp
x'd with Sally.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Winning for the Baddies is defined as the number of surviving villagers being equal to the number of surviving members of the most populated pack.Apparently, my worst-case scenario is a product of my illiterate (and innumerate) imagination.

I feel much better about this. :)

[Kuruharan]

Narration to follow.

[Kuruharan]

The debate this DAY was a bit slower, more delibrative than previous.

The inmates took plenty of time for hearty meals and pauses for thought.

Certainly today would see a solid, well-thought result. I mean, this would be the last sort of DAY when one of the inmates might suddenly jump up, throw himself on the guillotine, and pull the lever.

Wouldn't it be..?

At least the scratching continued.

Nice to have stability, after all.

The Missing or Dead:
Kuruharan
Nogrod
the phantom
Rune Son of Bjarne
Aganzir
A Little Green
Macalaure
Rikae
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Firefoot
Lalaith
Nilpaurion Felagund

The Living:
Formendacil
satansaloser2005
McCaber
Boromir88
Nerwen
Thinlómien
Eomer of the Rohirrim
mormegil
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen
Kath

Illusion:
Gwathagor (Ordo)

[Kuruharan]

Due to unforeseen circumstances, I'm starting DAY 5 early (all NIGHT folks reported in, don't worry, I'm not skipping anyone).

It was a sedate NIGHT.

The sun returned to herald the return of DAY rather early but with it came breakfast and other than the earliness nothing seemed to be amiss...except for a faint but pervasive red mist that seemed to hang over everything.

With no new corpses to discover everyone ate with renewed appitite and for a time believed they had finally overcome their situation.

But then they realized that Kuru had not come back and he had promised to do so.

Then they realized that Nerwen was missing. They hunted for her high and low, but there was no sign of her.

The red mist was becoming quite distracting and the inmates were becoming damp with it.

They set to the DAY's task to the continued sound of scratching.

The Missing or Dead:
Kuruharan
Nogrod
the phantom
Rune Son of Bjarne
Aganzir
A Little Green
Macalaure
Rikae
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Firefoot
Lalaith
Nilpaurion Felagund
Nerwen

The Living:
Formendacil
satansaloser2005
McCaber
Boromir88
Thinlómien
Eomer of the Rohirrim
mormegil
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen
Kath

Illusion:
Gwathagor (Ordo)

[Mithalwen]

Well no extra vote yesterday presumably because it wasn't exactly clear what we wanted. Can only assume that they had more sense and decided no information was better than misinformation.

Maybe it would be an idea to get that sorted early today. Ideally so that those east of the Sea aren't in the "you didn't get up this morning because you didn't go to bed, you were watching the whites of you eyes turn red" type situation. On which subject.. I did try to stay awake to the end of yesterday but woke five minutes past deadline gazing at a lit bulb and clutching the flaptop... not my finest hour.

Hopefully the single kill means one pack has been eliminated and Nerwen can be trusted.. not that I didn't before but.... not only option though. Especiallly since there isn't a body so maybe not a proper kill... or a sign that She will be back

And now I shall probably catch up on sleep, since Kuru has been kind.

[satansaloser2005]

Well, that was unexpected. I figured both of us would be dead.

More thoughts later. Nuzzles, gaming, and sleep now. The good news is that I'll be around more toDay.

[McCaber]

Well, I didn't vote yesterDay, so if I was the one the dead empowered it might not have shown up in the narration.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm going to assume that Boro didn't kill Nerwen, and that a wolf pack did. I wouldn't let down our guard quite yet, though - it wouldn't surprise me if there are still two packs and they both targeted my fair queen last night.

[Mithalwen]

Well that may be the case but we have to meet the dead part way here. We have ten living as options and ideally they should have choice since with reduced numbers the extra vote may decide the voting.

[McCaber]

Going off of Nerwen's list (are we allowed to call her the seer now that she's dead?), the potential wolves still around are:

Formendacil
mormegil
Mithalwen
Kath
and myself.

At a maximum there are three wolves on that list thanks to Boro and Nerwen's efforts, and if we managed to get even one ourselves earlier (or if the wolves killed one off in their internecine feuding) we are looking at a rather short game ahead of us.

[mormegil]

Not a surprise about Nerwen. I'm still puzzled why she didn't give more info yesterday. It seemed fairly obvious it would be her last Day with us. The question now is do we have two packs that hunted her, one pack left (how many?) or 2 packs with a ranger protection? It makes me hopeful that we only have one pack and Nilp was the sole survivor of his pack, though I don't think he would have self-voted in that case. He was either the member of a pack with more than 1 or innocent, although he acted quite oddly.

I hope we can assume that Boro didn't go after Nerwen.

McCaber, I disagree with your list. Nerwen said to hold off on Eomer but not dismiss him. She indicated he was part of a riddle that she hadn't puzzled out yet. To me this isn't the free pass card. The other problem is that she never confirmed the others innocent. In fact she only told us those that are dead were innocent i.e. phantom and Firefoot. Also, it's important to note that in 625 it would seem she knew something of Boromir but didn't know the full picture. She had a bit of distrust in the role too. We don't really know Boro's motives which makes me nervous.

As far as making a list, I think we've reached the point where doing so would be challenging to pull off without fear of wolfish influence. We have potentially 3 to 4 wolves dead and with so many potential scry targets now it will be a one to one ratio at best, right? This could give the dead an unfavorable situation in deciding whom to give the extra vote to. I would suggest they take the information they have and use it as best they see fit.

I'll try and think more on this tomorrow when I wake up, but in full disclosure, I've got a very busy morning at work tomorrow so I may be limited in my time. Anyway what I'm thinking is we need to make sure we give the dead options to choose from. If they only have one person but that person is evil and giving them the vote will negatively influence the outcome we are at a loss. Could we ask the question in a way that would give them two candidates for each option?

[McCaber]

McCaber, I disagree with your list. Nerwen said to hold off on Eomer but not dismiss him. She indicated he was part of a riddle that she hadn't puzzled out yet. To me this isn't the free pass card. The other problem is that she never confirmed the others innocent. In fact she only told us those that are dead were innocent i.e. phantom and Firefoot. Also, it's important to note that in 625 it would seem she knew something of Boromir but didn't know the full picture. She had a bit of distrust in the role too. We don't really know Boro's motives which makes me nervous.

This is true, looking back and reading the text of Nerwen's posts instead of just the list. I am still assuming that sally is as she claims, because at this point one of the two lovers would have said something if she wasn't.

Do you think Boro might be a werebear working against the village? Nerwen said that she hadn't checked him yet, and without that guarantee it seems at least plausible that he might be an independent agent.

___

Re: the dead thread--

I think we've reached the point in the game where we can stop using their vote as a source of information and instead rely on them to use their extra information to make appropriate choices on who to lynch. There are still enough wolves left in this reduced village that I wouldn't put it past one of them to cook up a list where the most likely possibilities the dead can give us correspond to empowering a wolf. Because we don't have enough living voters to give the dead a second option for most of the possible people they could scry, I think we're better off relying on them to make the proper calls themselves.

[Formendacil]

(are we allowed to call her the seer now that she's dead?)

Wait... seer? I can only assume this is why Eomer was calling me denser than dense yesterDay, but--just so I'm clear here--she didn't actually say "I'm the seer" anywhere, right? That's just the inference people have made: Boro is the special, so Nerwen can't be the special, ergo she must be the Seer?

Okay, that's logical.


I feel rather overwhelmingly idiotic. But was this really never actually put into words by anyone?


Okay, on to toDay...

As per usual, I won't be back until the waning hours. In the meantime, I am wondering where we're at for possible Night Kill permutations:

1. Wolves I, Wolves II, and Boro all tried to kill Nerwen.

2. Two of the above went for Nerwen, the third was stopped killing someone else by the Ranger.

3. 1 of the above went for Nerwen, one was stopped by the Ranger, one is eliminated.

4. 1 of the above went for Nerwen, two were eliminated.


Since Boro is still here, I think we can assume he hasn't been eliminated, and it seems unlikely in the extreme that all six wolves are gone, so I will say we can provisionally exclude #4... but beyond that, we'd need Boro to tell us who--if anyone--he tried to kill last night (assuming he can be trusted) and possibly a ranger reveal.

The only scenario in which a Ranger reveal would help--that I can see--is if the Ranger protected someone last night who was not Nerwen and Boro did not attempt to kill. That would indicate that two non-Boro killers are still active.

[Boromir88]

Nope I didn't kill anyone last night.

I was considering Form because of his previous days posting, which got really creepy, really quickly. But I'm trying to exercise a little bit of restraint and caution. I'm completely off today so I can dedicate some additional effort to lynching wolves during the day as well.

We need to find out what the dead know. Can anyone think of a reason the Dead would not have checked Lalaith last night?

And again I'm going to assume the Ranger is still alive. In which case I will say again don't protect me. I may, or may not still have some more to take down before I'm gone. Feels good knowing I at least got one.

[mormegil]

Boro, you've still not indicated your allegiance. Is it to yourself or the village? Dumb question, I know, because you can simply tell us the village and we have no way of verifying. I commend you for your kill of Macwolf; however I'm still uncertain of Lalwolf and you never indicated what you felt suspicious about her.

Additionally, I've been thinking about Kath and there are two major concerns that are brought to my mind. First, she could be a wolf who is hiding by posting minimally. A viable strategy to be sure and she has been somewhat immune to any major suspicion up to this point. It's also a strategy that helps ensure you don't get to be a target of a seer dream. Second, if she is innocent, she becomes a liability the further we go. We will need all villagers to be present and up to speed on what's going on. Overall, this is a concern we need addressed.

Boromir, to your question about Lal being a target for the dead, it would seem probable. A situation like that should be easy enough to orchestrate.

Something like this:

If Lalaith is a wolf give your vote to:
Form
Sally
McCaber


If she's not, give the vote to:
Boromir88
Thinlómien
Eomer


If you don't know give your vote to:
mormegil
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen
Kath

Thoughts? Approval?

[Mithalwen]

Not sure that Lalaith is the most useful information at this point. If Nerwen were the Seer she may have had her dreams before she died. Wouldn't it be more useful to contrive something to find out something out abput the living since we must be nearing a very delicate stage.

Personally speaking, while it would make days easier to be a proven innocent such identification post lynch vote might be counterproductive in that it pins a nice target for the wolves. So maybe only ask them to identify a known wolf.. obviously not by giving them the bonus vote but with either prearranged "pairs" or other system?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I don't know if this is a stretch, but did anyone else have the feeling that Nilp may have been empowered by the Dead yesterday? If so, the narration is quite cryptic; but it does mention that Nilp jumped up and pulled the lever on himself - he didn't cast the deciding vote as a few people voted him after his self-vote, so I'm puzzled that he's described as pulling the lever.

Could be nothing more than a joke, of course, but if not then it would indicate that Legate was innocent.

Depending on who the Ranger is and who they tried to save (if still in the village) we might be able to narrow it down from 4 (Morm, Form, Mith & Kath) to 3 or 2. Then I'd say it's just a matter of killing them off one by one.

Note that I'm taking Sally's post yesterday as proof of a certain someone's innocence, but if that was some sort of in-joke then we should really get that confirmed. ;)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh, and Form: yes. :p

I must say it was brilliant stuff from Nerwen. I so wanted my earlier theory about the special role to be right, though!

[Mithalwen]

Well I that is the case there there are enough living to give a choice of 2 for each wolf candidate plus single option for no positively identified wolves living and "you are working on wrong assumptions"

As for Kath, though I rued giving her the benefit of the doubt all those years ago - I think in Di's wereduck game..- I think there is a good chance she will be back on Friday. Maybe back off til then? Personally I am a bit concerned about mormegil still and Form .. just doesn't seem himself.is For someone so intelligent he hasn't been at his brightest,

As for morm... well his non reasons for suspecting me are suspicious to me at least. Just seemed like the sort of thing a wolf might do to draw fire. I am not saying I regard myself as above suspicion, on the contrary a case could have been made from the first days when I was bored and frustrated from having no certainties, pointless philosophising and being expected to be no more than a playing piece in the phantom's game. But shall read back and see if anything becomes more concrete,

[Boromir88]

Not sure that Lalaith is the most useful information at this point. If Nerwen were the Seer she may have had her dreams before she died. Wouldn't it be more useful to contrive something to find out something out abput the living since we must be nearing a very delicate stage.

Personally speaking, while it would make days easier to be a proven innocent such identification post lynch vote might be counterproductive in that it pins a nice target for the wolves. So maybe only ask them to identify a known wolf.. obviously not by giving them the bonus vote but with either prearranged "pairs" or other system?

Ahh this is an excellent idea. Makes me feel a whole lot better about you too. I have no idea right now on Eomer, Kath, and morm. I feel pretty good about Shasta's innocence and Form's guilt but neither are certainties in my mind. I'm inclined to trust sally's one of the lovers still. So now, I guess it comes down to whether we can get on the same page.



Boro, you've still not indicated your allegiance. Is it to yourself or the village? Dumb question, I know, because you can simply tell us the village and we have no way of verifying. I commend you for your kill of Macwolf; however I'm still uncertain of Lalwolf and you never indicated what you felt suspicious about her.~morm
I've been intentionally cryptic I know...but don't doubt there's nothing I want to do more right now than kill wolves...either through the lynch or more personal hands-on. Preferably both.

So, if you trust that fact about me...then I think Mith's suggestion of trying to uncover Nerwen's previous dreams and uncover the living players is a great idea. It only works though if you lot trust my desire is to purge this place of wolves.

Mith, are you thinking of something like...

If Nerwen dreamed...

-Form a wolf, than dead give their bonus vote to me

-Eomer a wolf, give the bonus vote to sally

The one thing is we don't have enough current trusted innocents to cover the living unknown players. :confused:

[Mithalwen]

It depends on whose reckoning you take as trusted innocent. If you get down to four suspects then you can have vote x or y for each and have a couple spares for zero wolf and pigs ear options. However if the presumptions of innocence are less certain then it is harder. We could make an educate guess on who a Nerwen seer would have chosen maybe... if we have the 2 most certain innocents as the single options and pair a more innocent seeming player with the main targets it gives the dead a chance to send a clear message without empowering a strong wolf candidate.

I

[mormegil]

I've been intentionally cryptic I know...but don't doubt there's nothing I want to do more right now than kill wolves...either through the lynch or more personal hands-on. Preferably both.

Will you please tell us if you are on our side? This response did not reassure me of that. A werebear type role would want the wolves eliminated too.





Mith, are you thinking of something like...

If Nerwen dreamed...

-Form a wolf, than dead give their bonus vote to me

-Eomer a wolf, give the bonus vote to sally

The one thing is we don't have enough current trusted innocents to cover the living unknown players. :confused:

It's a fine idea, however I would recommend having at least two options for the dead to pick who the vote goes to. Again, you are asking we trust you, when I simply cannot at this stage. You have too many variables about you. I trust Sally and I trusted Nerwen. While we can assume you are not a wolf (unless you are a lone wolf type scenario) we don't know you are innocent. We know you can kill whom you pick at night.

[mormegil]

As for morm... well his non reasons for suspecting me are suspicious to me at least. Just seemed like the sort of thing a wolf might do to draw fire. I am not saying I regard myself as above suspicion, on the contrary a case could have been made from the first days when I was bored and frustrated from having no certainties, pointless philosophising and being expected to be no more than a playing piece in the phantom's game. But shall read back and see if anything becomes more concrete,

Mith, go back and read my earlier post on this. I think you will understand why I've done what I've done on this matter. It's to help me read you and gauge your reaction.

[Thinlómien]

Mith, are you thinking of something like...

If Nerwen dreamed...

-Form a wolf, than dead give their bonus vote to me

-Eomer a wolf, give the bonus vote to sally

The one thing is we don't have enough current trusted innocents to cover the living unknown players. :confused:This is an excellent idea (kudos to Mith).

However, not sure I'm following through. I always thought Nerwen dreamed of me, Shasta and Eomer as well - why would she otherwise have told the village not to vote any of us? Just because she was personally leaning towards considering us innocent? Wouldn't that have been a rather reckless move from a seer? Given that she didn't say "I would prefer not lynching x, y or z" but rather "trust me, let's not lynch these folks toDay" (not a direct quote but you get the drift).

I want to check Nerwen's posts and do a little maths anyway. I have a feeling something doesn't add up, and I'm most baffled about her telling the ranger not to protect herself and not explicitly saying she was the seer if she was so certain she's going to die anyway. (I mean, it was a brilliant move not to say it in the beginning, but not saying it late-ish yesterDay makes me scratch my head a little.)

And I'm not saying Nerwen wasn't the seer. I still believe she was. There's just something weird going on. Also, by checking again whose roles she cleared or indicated and how many dreams she'd have had maybe we can achieve a mutual agreement whether she dreamed of me, Eomer and Shasta or not.

Lastly but not least, I'm still a tiny bit unsure about Boro. What he's doing would be a bold but pretty good move from a wolf. I'm definitely not suggesting lynching him anytime soon, but I'm not sure we should trust him 100%.

I am sorry this game is making me paranoid, but to be honest I'm mostly sorry for myself.

[Mithalwen]

Lommy, don't quite get you... that is Boro's variant not mine.. I was thinking of the 4/5 including me listed by Eomer...

However I have had an idea that is either bonkers or genius and I am not sure which. We know that there must be a majority of innocents in the dead thread now and that they seem to be horrifically active. I know given my vehement opposition to rigged voting day one but if we arranged a tie either of the unknowns or even go the whole hog and all just self vote then the dead can either take out a known wolf or if they don't know any leave us all to bicker another day. Too much of a risk of something going wrong?

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen straightforwardly said innocent
[the phantom]
[Firefoot]

Nerwen said don't vote
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

Nerwen said guilty
[Mac]
[Lottie]

Otherwise notable
Nerwen was very quick to believe Boro - another seer dream? My memory is a little fuzzy, but she may have said the same about Sally.

Including Boro or Sally would add up to 8 seer dreams, the correct amount for 4 nights. If Nerwen had dreamed of someone else (probably a dead person), I don't see why she wouldn't have mentioned it.

I'm still going to read her posts, but this is a good starting point.

This would also mean our remaining wolves are among

Morm
Form
Kath
Mith
McCaber

possibly but probably not Boro

(not Sally if we take her reveal at face value, which I still would)

Personally the ones I'm urgently worried about are Morm, Form and Kath.

[Thinlómien]

Mith, I just meant that it's a good idea to try to find out dead Nerwen's dreams like you suggested. Okay, it may be kind of obvious but it didn't occur to me. I wouldn't follow Boro's concrete suggestion. As far as I can see, we should set up you, Kath, morm, Form and possibly Boro himself as the dream options. We are exactly 10 now, so setting up a system to figure out any of the five seer dream options would mean using all the ten of us, including the unknown, as empowering options. Also I'm not sure if we shouldn't add an option for "hey living you completely misinterpreted Nerwen's posts, halt!"

[Mithalwen]

[. Also I'm not sure if we shouldn't add an option for "hey living you completely misinterpreted Nerwen's posts, halt!"

OK that was what I meant by the pig's ear option (as in the British colloquial expression "you've made a pig's ear of that" meaning messed it up. However that was when I was working on the basis that Mc Caber was regarded as innocent.

[mormegil]

Nerwen said don't vote
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

.

Here's the problem with that and something I keep coming back to, she said don't vote for them today but never did she indicate innocence. I think we are doing a great disservice by not looking at them. Shasta and Eomer have been a particular concern of mine on those list of 3 so I'm not willing to give them a pass which seems others are.

[mormegil]

Is this what you are thinking:

If:
morm is a wolf give vote to Form or McCaber
Form is a wolf give vote to morm or Lommy
Kath is a wolf give vote to Eomer or Mith
Mith is a wolf give vote to Kath or Shasta
McCaber is a wolf give vote to Boro
No dreams on this list as wolf give vote to Sally

That spreads it out and I'm willing to give Boro the single vote as well as it's known that he's at least not a wolf though his motivations are unclear.

[Thinlómien]

[B]Day1

Absolutely no indication of who she dreamed. Only a couple of posts, discussing rules and strategies. No suspicions or trusted people named.

Conclusion: Nerwen decided to lay low for Day1.


Day2


I'll look Rune's posts over. (Not phantom's. I mean, come on!)

In other news, I think the narration indicates both Lovers are still alive.You could read this as indication she dreamed of tp on Night2 when he died and that's why she's not going over his posts.

Mild suspicion of Rikae, no clear opinion on dead Rune. Finds Macalaure fishy. Considers morm's behaviour "eyebrow-raising". Jokingly tells Shasta not to leave her, which might or might not be a clue to his innocence. Finds the first Agan-wagon suspicious and doesn't want to indicate Agan is guilty. Wonders if morm and Mac were interacting wolf-on-wolf. Inclined to think tp was an ordo. Confused about Form. Doesn't think Lommy-Agan was wolf-on-wolf. More suspicion of Mac and votes him. Not "entirely easy" on Firefoot and morm.

Conclusion: dreams this far the phantom and Mac, I'm pretty sure about that. Apart from that: Shasta? Agan? Myself? Looks like up next: Firefoot? Maybe myself? I'm really baffled btw that she never checked morm.


Day3

*the day she started talking about her special role*

Assumes Agan was the hunter. Notes Eomer's cryptic statements.

Okay. So that’s what you are, Sally. Let me think about this. Also she doesn't think a wolf would have revealed as a lover. I'm getting the vibe she didn't dream of Sally.

Says the dead should check Greenie. Wants opinions on Nilp. Keeps assuming Legate was innocent (possibly as a ruse to hide her own seerdom). Asks opinions about Lottie. Also asks about Eomer and Firefoot. Lommy and Boro are among those she asks opinions from. Also asks thoughts about Boro and Mac. Mildly agrees with theories advocating morm and Agan's innocence. Names Mac and Lottie as wolves.

Conclusion: dreamed this far: the phantom, Mac and Lottie. Possible: Eomer, Firefoot, Boro, Shasta, Lommy, Agan.


Day 4

Not knowledgeable about Lalaith.

Pretty sure Firefoot was innocent, though- can't hurt to let you know that. That's a dream right there, probably from the Night before.

Boro, I had actually thought you might be the secret role for some time, and I don't doubt your reveal, and that you are not on the side of the wolves. I hope you'll understand, though, if I point out that we can't really be sure you're on the side of the village. Just something everyone needs to bear in mind. Iiiinteresting. Had she dreamed of him, she'd have received a message saying "PREDATOR" or "PREY", right? So did she dream of him and get a PM saying something that's not written in the rules? Does that mean we should be worried about Boro's allegiance? Or is she just saying this because she just thought (no seer dreams involved) he was the special role?

Anyway, from what I can work out, we should be looking for the remaining wolves amongst the following people:

Formendacil
McCaber
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Mithalwen
Kath

This is assuming Boro and Sally are telling the truth, of course, but there's good reason to think so.Indication she has cleared me, Eomer and Shasta. Indication she has a reason to trust Boro and Sally??

Any reason you are leaving off Lommy, Eomer, and Shashta? Both Eomer and Shashta are some of my suspects and I don't overlook Lommy.
Of course. They're cute. Lommy is a dear little penguin, Eomer is a fluffy-widdle puppy warg, and sure you don't expect me to lynch my king?
I would have left Nilp off, too, save for his sorely-deluded views on koalas.

...Er, I mean, no, I can't tell you. The riddle-message I was sent indicates a certain course of action, but that's as much as I say just now.This should be ample proof she dreamed of me, Eomer and Shasta. Really curious about Nilp.

Did I mention it looks as though tp was indeed innocent? Her making a single post only saying this (combined with what she said about Firefoot earlier) makes me think she would have told us had she dreamed of more dead innocents. I mean, why only tell us about the phantom and Firefoot but not others?

Side note:
Now I may have some more to add later. For now, though, in case I can't get online again, I'll just say that the Ranger had better not waste a protection on me. Among other things I don't think I'll be getting any more pms anyway and we've got (effectively) a whole bunch of known innocents now. This still baffles me. Did Kuru decide to stop giving her dreams because she'd have cleared the wolves too quickly for the game to stay balanced and tell her but not us? Or what? Also "whole bunch of known innocents" again points at me, Eomer and Shasta, not only Boro and Sally. In fact anyone ignoring the proof for me, Shasta and Eomer's innocence looks mighty fishy to me (looking at morm atm). Nerwen is making it very clear.

Another side note:One thing I'd like to suggest is that toMorrow we try to set up a way of asking about Living players? What do you think? That's a massive hint hint that we should try to ask about her dreams. I'm not sure why she's still so cryptic though...

Votes Nilp and says it's him "regardless".

Conclusion: Dreamed the phantom, Firefoot, Lottie, Mac, Lommy, Eomer and Nilp. Last dream either Boro or Agan. I really wish I knew...


edit: xed with a bunch