Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward [Archive] - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

satansaloser2005

10-26-2016, 05:57 PM

As the sun rose over the city, many in its midst walked out into the crisp morning air with only a slight apprehension in their step. In the Ward, however, no one awoke early. The houses were silent and dark, though rustling leaves skittered across the roads and tree branches scraped against the walls of some of the residences.

A scream pierced the chilly air and the residents of the Ward burst from their temporary lodgings to see the source of the noise.

Even with the dim light creeping over the city walls, the corpse was unmistakable. As the guards lifted the body, his red hat fell from his head and a tearful Sally crouched to pick it up, roughly shoving the item in her bag.

"Sally! What's happened?" Lalaith emerged from her assigned cottage and tried to get a better look, but was blocked by the guards, who were hoisting Phantom into a small cart.

"The Black Breath took him," Sally sobbed. She wiped her face on her sleeve, turning her back on Phantom as she addressed the group. "Please, there's nothing you can do for him. I'll make some tea, and then you should all get some more rest."

"Unacceptable!" shouted McCaber. "He was fine yesterday. A bit grumpy maybe, but he made fun of Nilp, so I assumed he was doing okay."

"Uh, McCaber?" Dun nudged his neighbor, then pointed toward the dark building toward the edge of the Ward. "You know Nilp died a week ago, right? Don't you remember? He sang a love ballad at the wall, then fainted into a gigantic bowl of noodles and never woke up."

"That's not the point!" shrieked Sally. "Could you show a little respect for the dead?"

"She's right! And who will take our reports to the guards now?" cried Kuru. "Phantom was always our representative!"

"Don't remind me," muttered Nerwen, rolling her eyes. "Maybe my sun and stars could take the reports?"

"Not every time, my queen," replied Shasta nervously. "I don't feel up to it, and that's a lot of pressure for one person."

"After all," agreed Lottie, "not everyone is Phantom."

"Are we sure Phantom was human?" asked Boro, but no one heard him, for at that moment, the gates to the morgue creaked open and Phantom's body was taken inside to join Agan, Gal, Nogrod, Formendacil, and so many others who had fallen to darkness before him.

"What do we do now?" Lommy whispered, but Legate just shook his head and embraced her, turning away from the morgue entrance.

Silence fell over the remaining patients, and though someone eventually spoke, their voice was so weary, it was impossible to identify its owner.

"Only five more days...."

Patients
Nerwen
Kuru
McCaber
Lottie
Lalaith
Lommy
Legate
Dun
Boro
Shasta

The Morgue
Phantom (for posterity)

It is now Day 1. Please remember to highlight your votes for who you want to report to the guards.

Loslote

10-26-2016, 09:35 PM

What a mess we've got on our hands! I mean, not literally, what with the apparently sentient morgue and all, but figuratively. We are in a bind. I just don't know what to do. We were going along so peacefully before now... And really, if the Black Breath could take even Phantom, then who's next? :eek:

Boromir88

10-26-2016, 09:51 PM

Second post! I'm clearly not guilty.

Nerwen

10-26-2016, 09:59 PM

Second post! I'm clearly not guilty.
You would say that, wouldn't you? Remember, it's always one of the first three posters...

Wait, what did I say?:eek:

Nerwen

10-26-2016, 10:02 PM

You see, it's this dreadful Black Breath, giving me a death wish!:(

Nerwen

10-26-2016, 10:17 PM

What is even more depressing is the knowledge that there are those among us who want us to give up the will to live... creating a feedback loop of negativity and despair! How dreadful!

(Please note that I say "dreadful", not "terrible". If I were evil, I would have used the
phrase "terrible things" in order to torment Agan's departed spirit. Given this incontrovertible proof, I should obviously be considered a known innocent from now on.)

Nerwen

10-26-2016, 11:14 PM

WHERE IS EVERYONE?

Have you all succumbed to the Black Breath already? Am I the last?

AIIIEEE! Woe is me, all alone in my dreadful (but not terrible) dark despair!

Thinlómien

10-27-2016, 01:11 AM

So let's lynch Lottie, Boro and Nerwen and be done with it... :Merisu: wait! That's not how this particular game works, is it?

That being said, I'm still studying the rules. I'll be posting some thoughts on them when I have a little more time and a computer, hopefully on my lunch break.

So weird but good to be playing again, it's been more than a year since the last game on the 'downs! :eek:

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-27-2016, 01:45 AM

O-ho! Black Breath or no Black Breath, brace yourselves for a twelve-minute speech, because guess what? I have arrived!

..
...
....

Okay okay, maybe let's start more slowly. For one: if I got the rules right, then we should select a representative (yeah, a real pity about The Phantom). What I propose however is that also everyone suggests (maybe via a "normal" vote, i.e. bolded and not highlighted?) the name the representative should deliver to the Guards. It is, of course, then up to the Representative whether they behave like a democratically elected representative of the majority and deliver the name of the most suspected person, or whether they pick the person they choose themselves... and on top of everything, whether they are going to be honest about it. I can imagine several funny scenarios already, but let's not get too ahead of us.

As a sidenote, I realise this style of Day 1 may be helpful for the lazier existences among us who prefer not to cast a vote on Day 1, therefore delegating the responsibility on somebody else...

Also, since somebody has to mention this, and once again, the phantom isn't here to supply us with plans: since we are just waiting to get rescued, I wonder if a purposeful tie (or a purposeful miss of vote from the Representative) would actually be benefitial for the village. Meaning, the more there are of us, the greater chance we outnumber the Wolves, the bigger chance the Gifteds aren't mislynched, etc. Discuss?

Ha! See? That was a short post.

Nerwen

10-27-2016, 04:35 AM

Okay okay, maybe let's start more slowly. For one: if I got the rules right, then we should select a representative (yeah, a real pity about The Phantom). What I propose however is that also everyone suggests (maybe via a "normal" vote, i.e. bolded and not highlighted?) the name the representative should deliver to the Guards. It is, of course, then up to the Representative whether they behave like a democratically elected representative of the majority and deliver the name of the most suspected person, or whether they pick the person they choose themselves... and on top of everything, whether they are going to be honest about it. I can imagine several funny scenarios already, but let's not get too ahead of us.
Under most circumstances, we'd find out next Day if the Representative had picked someone else.

Also, since somebody has to mention this, and once again, the phantom isn't here to supply us with plans: since we are just waiting to get rescued, I wonder if a purposeful tie (or a purposeful miss of vote from the Representative) would actually be benefitial for the village. Meaning, the more there are of us, the greater chance we outnumber the Wolves, the bigger chance the Gifteds aren't mislynched, etc.
Do you mean we agree in advance for the Representative not to send in a target? Or what?

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-27-2016, 04:56 AM

Do you mean we agree in advance for the Representative not to send in a target? Or what?
Yes. If the Representative would respect that (but then I assume they would, resp. I assume we'd choose someone who we know would).

Nerwen

10-27-2016, 05:16 AM

Yes. If the Representative would respect that (but then I assume they would, resp. I assume we'd choose someone who we know would).
Would our Moddess accept this, though?

Sally, can we have a ruling on this, please?

satansaloser2005

10-27-2016, 05:59 AM

Would our Moddess accept this, though?

Sally, can we have a ruling on this, please?

The representative doesn't have to send in a name.

Lalaith

10-27-2016, 06:05 AM

Hello everyone. Just trying to get to grips with everyone and everything around here.

I wonder if a purposeful tie (or a purposeful miss of vote from the Representative) would actually be benefitial for the village. Meaning, the more there are of us, the greater chance we outnumber the Wolves, the bigger chance the Gifteds aren't mislynched, etc. Discuss?

I am not pretending to fully understand the rules, but I'm not clear on how this any different to deciding against having a lynching on the first day?

Inziladun

10-27-2016, 06:17 AM

Curse the Black Breath, and the black mouth from which it emerged!

For one: if I got the rules right, then we should select a representative (yeah, a real pity about The Phantom). What I propose however is that also everyone suggests (maybe via a "normal" vote, i.e. bolded and not highlighted?) the name the representative should deliver to the Guards. It is, of course, then up to the Representative whether they behave like a democratically elected representative of the majority and deliver the name of the most suspected person, or whether they pick the person they choose themselves... and on top of everything, whether they are going to be honest about it. I can imagine several funny scenarios already, but let's not get too ahead of us.

Well, not acceding to the wishes of the group will require some tall explaining and but the rep in for a fair amount of suspicion. Especially since, if I recall rightly, we won't know the alignment of the one the guards take.

Also, since somebody has to mention this, and once again, the phantom isn't here to supply us with plans: since we are just waiting to get rescued, I wonder if a purposeful tie (or a purposeful miss of vote from the Representative) would actually be benefitial for the village. Meaning, the more there are of us, the greater chance we outnumber the Wolves, the bigger chance the Gifteds aren't mislynched, etc.

But don't the baddies still get their evil whispering in the meantime?

The representative doesn't have to send in a name.

Ah, again I think not doing so would reflect poorly on the rep.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-27-2016, 07:01 AM

I am not pretending to fully understand the rules, but I'm not clear on how this any different to deciding against having a lynching on the first day?
My point is, most of all, that it doesn't have to be even just for the first Day. That's why I suggested to discuss this. We could, theoretically, keep doing it indefinitely - or at least until the situation would shift dramatically (e.g. we'd start losing Gifteds and so on. Although I just realised that has its own problems, such as that we don't know the roles of the dead, right?). But see also below in my reply to Zil...

But don't the baddies still get their evil whispering in the meantime?
They would. But the point of this was to minimalise the damage. According to the rules, the innocents can win just by surviving (as Sally now specified, five Days), providing there are more of them than Wolves and they have at least one of the Gifted still alive. Five Days, that's five Wolf-kills. If they don't kill the Gifteds (or at most one), and of course if nobody gets modfired (which could be the biggest concern), that leaves five people alive, out of which only two are Wolves. It is close, of course (and I guess that was the point so that the game remais balanced - btw good job, Sally, in any case), but given that we also have effectively two "Rangers", there is quite some chance that it might work out.

Basically what I am offering for discussion is: is it more dangerous for us to start lynching people (given that in this game, we do not have the traditional voting pattern to rely on and on top of everything, we do not know what was the dead person's role!!) and therefore the win-condition for us practically would become that we have to bag a Wolf (or preferrably both) to win; or, to not lynch people on our own and just let the WWs do the process of thinning the numbers of villagers; but if they don't manage to kill both Gifteds, they are guaranteed to lose.

I simply think this would be an interesting point to discuss, if nothing else.

Otherwise: I suggest we really do cast votes for the person we want as Representative as well as some "unofficial" votes (for example just boldened) for who we would like to see lynched (and we can do it even if we later decide not to lynch anyone in the end. It will lose the point of course, but better to have it than not to have it, anyway. It is still something that tells something about people's thinking, even if they were lying).

Ah, again I think not doing so would reflect poorly on the rep.
Unless we decided that they should do so (that was the question in that particular case).

Kuruharan

10-27-2016, 07:24 AM

"Oh woe, woooooooooooe!" a fearful sound echoed through the street.

"Woe Day One! Oh Woe! Wooooooooooe!"

"What is that awful sound?" someone asked.

"Sound like somebody is lamenting the fact that it is DAY ONE," replied another.

"Day One, Woe!"

"Well, I wish it would stop," commented the first.

Suddenly a terrible clattering and general rukus broke the air.

"Woe! Woe!!!!!!"

An out of control horse with a terrified Kuruharan clinging to the reins hurtled around the corner. "Woah! Woah Day One, you stupid horse! WOAH!!!!"

Horse and rider shot out of sight.

"Woah, Day One! WOOOOOOOOAH!"

A sound like a dwarf being hurled off the back of a horse and into a fruit stand came back down the street.

"What's the meaning of this," demanded an onlooker.

"This is my new horse Day One," replied Kuruharan.

"We're trapped in this ward. How did you get a horse?"

"It was necessary so it appeared," said Kuruharan.

The horse, Day One, abruptly disappeared into thin air.

"I've been sitting on that gag for eight months now waiting for the chance to use it and, by crackey, I was going to!" exclaimed Kuruharan.

(I promise to make a serious post soon.)

Inziladun

10-27-2016, 07:32 AM

According to the rules, the innocents can win just by surviving (as Sally now specified, five Days), providing there are more of them than Wolves and they have at least one of the Gifted still alive. Five Days, that's five Wolf-kills. If they don't kill the Gifteds (or at most one), and of course if nobody gets modfired (which could be the biggest concern), that leaves five people alive, out of which only two are Wolves. It is close, of course (and I guess that was the point so that the game remais balanced - btw good job, Sally, in any case), but given that we also have effectively two "Rangers", there is quite some chance that it might work out.

Hm. And those hit by the baddies' whisperings don't expire automatically, do they?

Basically what I am offering for discussion is: is it more dangerous for us to start lynching people (given that in this game, we do not have the traditional voting pattern to rely on and on top of everything, we do not know what was the dead person's role!!) and therefore the win-condition for us practically would become that we have to bag a Wolf (or preferrably both) to win; or, to not lynch people on our own and just let the WWs do the process of thinning the numbers of villagers; but if they don't manage to kill both Gifteds, they are guaranteed to lose.

Well, in an ordinary situation my feeling is that not voting/not lynching anyone plays into the hands of the wolves. But in this case, with a definite time period to shoot for that will ensure our survival, maybe not reporting anyone to the guards makes sense. At least for toDay I think I'd support that.

Otherwise: I suggest we really do cast votes for the person we want as Representative as well as some "unofficial" votes (for example just boldened) for who we would like to see lynched (and we can do it even if we later decide not to lynch anyone in the end. It will lose the point of course, but better to have it than not to have it, anyway. It is still something that tells something about people's thinking, even if they were lying).

Knowing who people thought should be reported though won't be as helpful, since we can't know the roles of the removed.

Loslote

10-27-2016, 08:03 AM

Nerwen

10-27-2016, 08:08 AM

They would. But the point of this was to minimalise the damage. According to the rules, the innocents can win just by surviving (as Sally now specified, five Days), providing there are more of them than Wolves and they have at least one of the Gifted still alive. Five Days, that's five Wolf-kills. If they don't kill the Gifteds (or at most one), and of course if nobody gets modfired (which could be the biggest concern), that leaves five people alive, out of which only two are Wolves. It is close, of course (and I guess that was the point so that the game remais balanced - btw good job, Sally, in any case), but given that we also have effectively two "Rangers", there is quite some chance that it might work out.
Just one problem- the admin thread says there's three conspirators, not two.

Edit:x'd with Lottie.

Nerwen

10-27-2016, 08:11 AM

Personally, I think we should lynch Kuru and the terrible pun he rode in on.:smokin:

Kuruharan

10-27-2016, 08:54 AM

Personally, I think we should lynch Kuru and the terrible pun he rode in on.:smokin:

I thank'ee kindly, ma'am! :smokin:

This will probably be a series of short serious posts since I am at work and can't stay on the board for extended periods.

I think we need to establish facts so the Ward is working from the same foundation. Some of this may seem obvious, but I think it should be stated for clarity.

1) We can assume that people who are Black Breathed are innocent. It would be one twisted group of...let's call them Wolves for the sake of brevity...who would do in one of their own in a game with this level of anonymity. Not to say it is utterly impossible, but we should assume they would not do this at the beginning.

2) We cannot trust the intentions of the representative! This is a vital point to establish. The Ward must make clear to the representative the appropriate target selection. The only way to hold the representative accountable is if the target is clear and then punish them if they deviate from the Ward's will.

3) While I am tentatively inclined to be supportive of Legate's suggestion of not lynching somebody toDAY...I believe the numbers dictate that we will have to eventually. We can't win by just passing the lynch each time.

I would like to run the numbers now, but I have a meeting. Hopefully we can have some people independently run the numbers to verify our possible scenarios.

I will do it myself when I have a chance.

4) This game would be more awesome with a Dead Thread! All games should have Dead Threads now! :D

Lalaith

10-27-2016, 08:55 AM

I don't even get the pun. I'm so embarrassed. Maybe just lynch me for sheer slow-wittedness.

Inziladun

10-27-2016, 09:51 AM

Ok, so the rules state:

The conspirators may only converse during Night phases. Each Night, they choose one person (by sending me a PM), to whom they whisper dark thoughts. Once demoralized by the conspirators, a patient lives through the Day, but if not treated, succumbs to their despair during the next Night and dies the following Dawn. (Example: Sally is targeted Night 2. I am notified of this by PM at the start of Day 3, and am dead at the start of Day 4.)

If the Conspirators' target isn't blocked by Bard or healed by the herbalist, xe is gone Day 2 after they are afflicted, right? So it would take six Days to take out three villagers? :confused:

Ten players, three Conspiarators. If no one is submitted to the guards for removal, is it possible to just wait things out?

Boromir88

10-27-2016, 10:00 AM

Second post! I'm clearly not guilty.

I lied. I am guilty. Guilty of not caring about the phantom's demise. If I was in the conspirators' shoes, I would have done the same. Let's be honest, it's a far quieter and headache reduced with his loss. Am I right?

I actually would like to give a reward to those who did us all a great service and favor. Come forward, collect your reward - all expenses-paid weekend passes to the beautiful Dol Amroth resort (once this nasty business of war is over). Plus, free muffins at Mablung's Magic Muffins for life.

Inziladun

10-27-2016, 10:04 AM

I lied. I am guilty. Guilty of not caring about the phantom's demise. If I was in the conspirators' shoes, I would have done the same. Let's be honest, it's a far quieter and headache reduced with his loss. Am I right?

I actually would like to give a reward to those who did us all a great service and favor. Come forward, collect your reward - all expenses-paid weekend passes to the beautiful Dol Amroth resort (once this nasty business of war is over). Plus, free muffins at Mablung's Magic Muffins for life.

Right! But oh, so wrong....:p

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-27-2016, 10:07 AM

Since what we suffer from most of all is a lack of information, I think we should all explicitly state our intentions in the case that we are elected representative. Maybe not names, necessarily, although I do think a name would be nice later in the day when we are close to voting, but we should spell out our general philosophies and strategies early in the Day so that we have a framework to build on later.
Good one. Even though I believe we should go a step further and actually say who we would vote for if we were elected the Representative.

My intentions for Day 1 as it is: I am not 100% sure about that, but I would consider not sending a lynch the first Day at all. I would, however, also support a public opinion (unless by some inexplicable chain of events it was absolutely contrary to all human logic in my opinion, but in that case I don't assume people would choose me in the first place).

MORE IMPORTANTLY: I believe we should elect someone we can trust. Basically the most innocent. If we get the opinions from everyone (preferably early enough before DL!), then the vote can also be based on that.

Just one problem- the admin thread says there's three conspirators, not two.
Ah, right. That makes it a slightly worse theory, then. Well, the question stands anyway. But that puts us much more back towards a "normal" game-style. We just have slightly better chances thanks to effectively having something like two Rangers, and slightly worse by having no info whatsoever.

1) We can assume that people who are Black Breathed are innocent. It would be one twisted group of...let's call them Wolves for the sake of brevity...who would do in one of their own in a game with this level of anonymity. Not to say it is utterly impossible, but we should assume they would not do this at the beginning.
The problem is that if I am not mistaken, nobody is supposed to say that aloud. They can only hint. (With which I would suggest that all innocents refrain from making any comments regarding their health unless they really are sick. In fact, if we already have one ill person here, maybe too late for toDay.)

2) We cannot trust the intentions of the representative! This is a vital point to establish. The Ward must make clear to the representative the appropriate target selection. The only way to hold the representative accountable is if the target is clear and then punish them if they deviate from the Ward's will.

That makes perfect sense.
3) While I am tentatively inclined to be supportive of Legate's suggestion of not lynching somebody toDAY...I believe the numbers dictate that we will have to eventually. We can't win by just passing the lynch each time.
After correcting my numbers, I agree. But we'll see what exactly we do.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil and Boro

Kuruharan

10-27-2016, 10:17 AM

The problem is that if I am not mistaken, nobody is supposed to say that aloud. They can only hint. (With which I would suggest that all innocents refrain from making any comments regarding their health unless they really are sick. In fact, if we already have one ill person here, maybe too late for toDay.)

Yes, that is correct.

My intention was to state that we could look at their posts after they are definitively gone and feel fairly confident of their innocence.

The utility of this will have to be left for us to determine later.

Kuruharan

10-27-2016, 10:18 AM

And when I say "utility" I mean that since we are all operating in the dark there is no guarantee that the innocents were speculating on good information.

But we must work with what we have.

Loslote

10-27-2016, 10:26 AM

Ok, so the rules state:

If the Conspirators' target isn't blocked by Bard or healed by the herbalist, xe is gone Day 2 after they are afflicted, right? So it would take six Days to take out three villagers? :confused:

Ten players, three Conspiarators. If no one is submitted to the guards for removal, is it possible to just wait things out?

We lose someone every Day starting on Day 2, and I'm pretty sure we only win if we survive with a Gifted, which makes it a much more risky strategy to try to wait out the plague. It's not just numbers vs numbers - we need to give our Gifteds the best possible chance of survival if we want to win.

Kuruharan

10-27-2016, 10:40 AM

There is an ambiguity here. O Moddess, please review this.

PURE NO LYNCH SCENARIO
DAY ONE
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY TWO
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1

DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1
Player 2

DAY FOUR
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3

DAY FIVE
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4

1) Everyone please review my numbers to make sure they are correct.

2) Oh Moddess, when does the game end? Do we get a DAY SIX where the last person with the Black Breath dies or might die?

3) If there is no DAY SIX death, then the potential for the Ward to win by just refusing to lynch each time is there...at least according to my potentially flawed counting. (Never trust me with numbers.)

4) My reading of the rules is that the wolves don't win simply by eliminating the gifteds. They have a win condition of eliminating both gifteds and having one of them survive.

Please review and discuss. This is important for the course of the game.

Kuruharan

10-27-2016, 10:43 AM

I don't even get the pun. I'm so embarrassed. Maybe just lynch me for sheer slow-wittedness.

Don't feel bad. The joke was quite stupid. :o

Loslote

10-27-2016, 11:12 AM

If I did my very quick math right, the probability that we lose both Gifteds is about 30%. I would estimate higher, because it isn't just a shot in the dark. All of us here know how to hunt Godteds, and that will be priority number one for the wolves. Not the best odds, in my opinion, but not insurmountable. I still don't like the plan, though. I think it leaves too much up to the wolves.

Inziladun

10-27-2016, 11:37 AM

We lose someone every Day starting on Day 2, and I'm pretty sure we only win if we survive with a Gifted, which makes it a much more risky strategy to try to wait out the plague. It's not just numbers vs numbers - we need to give our Gifteds the best possible chance of survival if we want to win.

But does calling the guards not endanger the Gifteds?

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-27-2016, 11:45 AM

Well the biggest problem I see in it is that even if the whole village agrees not to lynch anyone ever, then if a Wolf manages to infiltrate the Rep even once (for example the Day before the last), they would win. (Or would they? Anyway, you get the point - it basically depends on everyone keeping that strategy all the time. We'd have to keep in line, and not to chicken out at some wrong moment just because we lose a nerve.)

As a counter-argument, I still trust the Gifteds we have would be able to help as well. The WWs have to either try to kill them, or work around them so that they don't waste a kill, etc... so that balances out the lack of knowledge on the innocents' part.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-27-2016, 11:47 AM

But does calling the guards not endanger the Gifteds?

What calling the Guards? If I got it right, that's an event which happens on Day 5 spontaneously (or 6??? Clarification here, sally? When exactly does it happen? Evening of Day 5? Morning of Day 5? Morning of Day 6?). So the game ends on that Day in any case, just depends of what is the ratio in the village and whether the Gifteds are still alive. Am I reading it right?

satansaloser2005

10-27-2016, 11:49 AM

But does calling the guards not endanger the Gifteds?

The gifteds are not exempt from being dispatched by the guards; they will remove whomever they are instructed to by the representative.

As for the other question at hand, the game will end at the dawn of Day 6, which means any fates sealed over the previous Night will affect the outcome of the game.

X'd with Legate, as I finally beat my phone into submission

Inziladun

10-27-2016, 12:16 PM

What calling the Guards? If I got it right, that's an event which happens on Day 5 spontaneously (or 6??? Clarification here, sally? When exactly does it happen? Evening of Day 5? Morning of Day 5? Morning of Day 6?). So the game ends on that Day in any case, just depends of what is the ratio in the village and whether the Gifteds are still alive. Am I reading it right?

I was talking about this:

The representative informs me (by private message) of one person they wish to have removed from the Ward. During the Night, the target will be dispatched; like with those who succumb to the Black Breath, no body will be left as evidence, leaving no indication of whether the person was a conspirator or a victim.

On an unrelated note, I propose that anyone afflicted by the Black Breath, fearful as they may be, not announce their condition in an appeal to the Herbalist. I can see an easy way for Conspirators to sow confusion that way.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-27-2016, 01:23 PM

On an unrelated note, I propose that anyone afflicted by the Black Breath, fearful as they may be, not announce their condition in an appeal to the Herbalist. I can see an easy way for Conspirators to sow confusion that way.
I disagree. (Technical note: according to the rules, nobody is allowed to actually "announce" it, but they can make hints, of course.) If all the villagers, from the next Day on, avoid saying things like "I am not feeling well" just as a banter and only say it when they are actually being affected by the Black Breath, then it could be a decent tool for the village, if the Herbalist cooperates. Because then if one Wolf decides to sow confusion into this and pretends to be sick, then we have two people on the thread who say "oh I slept really badly toNight", and it is clear one of them is probably sick and the other probably an impostor Wolf. Granted, we don't know the roles, so it may be a problem, and if neither of them dies, we don't know whether it is because they were cured, resp which of them was cured, or if they are both Wolves, or whatever. But it is at least something to process; like if one person keeps constantly whining how sick they are and still they aren't dying, then it is bound to become suspicious. But of course, that's just my opinion.

Kuruharan

10-27-2016, 02:07 PM

Well, that answers that.

On balance, my opinion is that we should not lynch somebody toDAY. Given the dynamics of this game I think we need to stretch the game (as it were).

That, and we have precious little to go on toDAY. We are more likely to shoot an innocent than a wolf by firing wildly in the dark.

However, I am still open to persuasion.

We will have to nominate a representative toDAY and we may need to start serious discussions in that line before too much longer.

Shastanis Althreduin

10-27-2016, 02:15 PM

Silver lining - at least maybe we'll get a nursery rhyme named after us, like the plague did? :Merisu:

Sorry for my lateness. Here and reading.

Shastanis Althreduin

10-27-2016, 02:28 PM

Inziladun

10-27-2016, 02:34 PM

I disagree. (Technical note: according to the rules, nobody is allowed to actually "announce" it, but they can make hints, of course.)

Ok, I missed that. I knew roles couldn't be told, truthfully or not.

If all the villagers, from the next Day on, avoid saying things like "I am not feeling well" just as a banter and only say it when they are actually being affected by the Black Breath, then it could be a decent tool for the village, if the Herbalist cooperates. Because then if one Wolf decides to sow confusion into this and pretends to be sick, then we have two people on the thread who say "oh I slept really badly toNight", and it is clear one of them is probably sick and the other probably an impostor Wolf. Granted, we don't know the roles, so it may be a problem, and if neither of them dies, we don't know whether it is because they were cured, resp which of them was cured, or if they are both Wolves, or whatever. But it is at least something to process; like if one person keeps constantly whining how sick they are and still they aren't dying, then it is bound to become suspicious. But of course, that's just my opinion.

It just seems to me more trouble than benefit. There's already enough ambiguity without giving more opportunity for confusion.

On balance, my opinion is that we should not lynch somebody toDAY. Given the dynamics of this game I think we need to stretch the game (as it were).

That, and we have precious little to go on toDAY. We are more likely to shoot an innocent than a wolf by firing wildly in the dark.

At this point, the odds of hitting an innocent are certainly better than getting a Conspirator. I still see sense in waiting, but I'm not sold on it totally.

x/d with Shasta

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-27-2016, 02:46 PM

We will have to nominate a representative toDAY and we may need to start serious discussions in that line before too much longer.

Agreed. As for myself, I am willing to nominate someone who isn't a wild shot, i.e. probably someone who has been around and posting and whom I have clearer reading on. It is a positive thing that it does not matter that much (at this point) that the person in question must be 100% innocent, because if they turn out to be a Wolf, they still can't act wilfully without having to answer for it.

I am also leaning towards not "lynching" ("sending message to the Guards") anyone at least toDay. After all, it's Kuruharan's horse. I mean, it's Day 1.

Loslote

10-27-2016, 02:55 PM

Yes, I agree that we should hold off toDay, and start booting people toMorrow. I may vote for Legate or Kuru, since I trust that they would abstain from selecting someone toNight.

As far as those who hear whispers go, I think that if we have a competing 'reveal', we should also vote for which one the Herbalist should protect. If we get it right, no one will die, and we will know for sure who is innocent and who is evil. If we get it wrong, the unprotected person will die, and we will know that the person we asked the Herbalist to protect was lying.

That relies, of course, on both the cooperation of the Herbalist and the representative, since if the representative decides to muddle around with the deaths, we could mistake the information. In this test, then, we would need to be explicit as to who the representative should kill, and if the representative did not follow instructions, we probably could take that as a red flag about the representative's alignment. I think overall this strategy would work fairly well, so I'm not too worried about competing claims.

Also, according to the Admin thread,

Anyone can claim to have been targeted at any time.

Which is why, while I am very worried about these bothersome fainting spells I've started having, I am not worried about modfire should our dearest Sally grow annoyed by my persistent cough. ;)

Kuruharan

10-27-2016, 02:59 PM

Rules question: (I'm sorry, I know we've had 8 months to ask...but I didn't think of it till now)

For clarification, can people be nominated for Representative multiple times? Or sequential times? Can one nominate oneself?

we should also vote for which one the Herbalist should protect.

I don't agree with this so much. I think the Herbalist should have freedom to exercise their judgment.

Loslote

10-27-2016, 03:09 PM

I don't agree with this so much. I think the Herbalist should have freedom to exercise their judgment.

We don't want the Herbalist to reveal, ever, since we very badly need to keep them alive. The only way we get any information from the Herbalist at all is if we have a scenario where the Herbalist has a choice to protect two competing claimants and we can decide which one they choose. In this scenario, we can know who was telling the truth and who was lying, which immediately gives us a wolf. If we do know who the Herbalist protected and neither die, we have a known innocent and a known wolf. If we know who was protected and the other dies, we have a known wolf and a dead known innocent. Either of these scenarios is much, much better than if we don't know who the Herbalist protected and they get it right, because then, no one dies, and we end up needing to kill both people, because we know that one is innocent and the other a wolf, but we can never know which.

Freedom to exercise judgement is all well and good, but we should never willingly throw away information.

Lalaith

10-27-2016, 03:15 PM

I've read through everyone's posts, I'm still feeling confused and it's nearly my bedtime. I will accept the Wards majority verdict.

Inziladun

10-27-2016, 03:44 PM

We don't want the Herbalist to reveal, ever, since we very badly need to keep them alive.

Unless I'm badly mistaken, the Herbalist can't reveal.

Loslote

10-27-2016, 03:46 PM

Unless I'm badly mistaken, the Herbalist can't reveal.

Oh, true! Still, that means that there is literally no way to get information from the Herbalist aside from organizing in this thread and trusting the Herbalist to go along with what we agree on.

satansaloser2005

10-27-2016, 03:50 PM

Still reading, but I wanted to mention (mostly regarding Legate and Kuru talking about hinting as to whether or not you're demoralized) - I'd be careful with that. Sally hosted a game similar to this a while back with delayed kills (Shelob and her spiderlings) and there was a bit of an issue regarding secretiveness of privileged information. Sally was fairly lenient that time; she might be a bit more strict this time.

If Peter Jackson calls you asking if you have a mace he can borrow, you're probably overdoing it. Otherwise it should be fine.

As a reminder, I did say people could tell everyone whether or not they're demoralized, but they can also, you know, totally lie about that, so make of that what you will.

Thinlómien

10-27-2016, 03:53 PM

Sorry, I've been super busy (and distracted) today, but I'm here now! The game looks like quite an interesting kettle of fish.

Okay okay, maybe let's start more slowly. For one: if I got the rules right, then we should select a representative (yeah, a real pity about The Phantom). What I propose however is that also everyone suggests (maybe via a "normal" vote, i.e. bolded and not highlighted?) the name the representative should deliver to the Guards. It is, of course, then up to the Representative whether they behave like a democratically elected representative of the majority and deliver the name of the most suspected person, or whether they pick the person they choose themselves... Good idea. This is such a small village that we can't really afford to lose the evidence provided by traditional votes.

Also, since somebody has to mention this, and once again, the phantom isn't here to supply us with plans: since we are just waiting to get rescued, I wonder if a purposeful tie (or a purposeful miss of vote from the Representative) would actually be benefitial for the village. Meaning, the more there are of us, the greater chance we outnumber the Wolves, the bigger chance the Gifteds aren't mislynched, etc. Discuss?That's a no from me. No votes = less interested people, less leads to follow, general drop in the vigilance of the masses, also less fun game.

Even though now that I think of it, given that we do not learn the roles of the dead, the evidence votes provide is even more murky than usual. So it's maybe not worth it to take a shot in the dark. But should we really only relay on the kills? And I don't want not to vote just in principle :p because that goes contrary to all my values!

As for representative, I would favour Legate. He's kinda volunteered by initiating the discussion on the rules, and seems to be up to date with them unlike many others. :D

edit: xed with the last couple of posts

Thinlómien

10-27-2016, 04:04 PM

And oops, I just looked at the clock. Having an adult working schedule and playing werewolf with Americans don't really mix. Vote(s) in a minute, off to brush my teeth etc.

Does anyone else find it strange there has been literally no fingers pointed at anyone during the whole Day? Sure it's Day1 and we have been preoccupied by discussing the rules, but it's still weird. Three of us are still guilty. We should be already be trying to figure out who.

(Even though, if we were just sitting this one out, wouldn't it be hilarious to have a werewolf game where no one voiced a single suspicion against anyone ever? :D)

Kuruharan

10-27-2016, 04:18 PM

Does anyone else find it strange there has been literally no fingers pointed at anyone during the whole Day? Sure it's Day1 and we have been preoccupied by discussing the rules, but it's still weird. Three of us are still guilty. We should be already be trying to figure out who.

If it is any consolation, there *are* people who have pinged my radar toDAY in not-a-good-way.

However, I have grown convinced that we should not lynch somebody toDAY. This is a very small Ward and we will have little certain information. We are far more likely to do ourselves a mischief by lynching the wrong person toDAY. We have a target date to get to and by erroneous lynches now we can cut ourselves off from reaching that target date. Erroneous lynches are far more likely to happen toDAY than not.

I also, as it turns out, will have to make my vote for representative soon as I have to leave a computer and I may not be able to come back before the deadline.

I am prepared to nominate Legate if he is on board with not lynching somebody toDAY.

Inziladun

10-27-2016, 04:19 PM

Shastanis Althreduin

10-27-2016, 04:20 PM

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-27-2016, 04:22 PM

Looking at the clock, Or more like feeling how sleepy I am becoming, I will probably also vote in a matter of minutes.

Freedom to exercise judgement is all well and good, but we should never willingly throw away information.
I think that should basically be a motto for this game, given how little info we have in general.

Three of us are still guilty.
Confession? :)

Anyway: as for the Rep, if I happen to be elected, I will definitely pass the wish of the majority, especially if the said wish is not to lynch anyone toDay at all. That is, also, what I would prefer to do myself. Also because lynching is quite an abrupt process, and many people did not get much chance to speak yet (like if we suddenly randomly decided to lynch someone, they wouldn't have much chance to defend themselves).

Otherwise, I would be willing to entrust Lottie with the task. She's been fairly active especially in the second half, and making good points. Among other people I found genuinely active and having good points, there is Kuru. Of the others who have been more active, Inzil I had some strange feelings about in the beginning, and I still cannot completely shake it off (at one point I was just confused about what he was thinking about the rules, though). I must say that despite the above thing being a joke, there is something a bit off about Lommy, too. But there. Preliminary feelings. And what's with other I-would-suspect-to-be-loud people like Boro?

Off to think for a bit and then my rep vote is coming.

EDIT: Oho! x-ed since Lommy.

Shastanis Althreduin

10-27-2016, 04:23 PM

Shastanis Althreduin

10-27-2016, 04:25 PM

Oh, and for the Finns that have to vote soon - I think I'd prefer Lottie as representative myself, honestly. That's where I'm leaning, anyway.

Kuruharan

10-27-2016, 04:28 PM

Okay, I'm going to go on record here as being the dissenting voice as far as no-lynches go; I've never been a fan, to be honest. Lynching is the only tool we have, mechanically, to win the game; it's always seemed counter-intuitive to me to intentionally disarm ourselves in such a way.

This game is fairly different than a normal werewolf game, though, theoretically, and I haven't dissected the numbers as much as some others have, so if it's the will of the majority that we decide not to lynch today, I'll go with it. I suppose it's a bit late in the day anyway, considering no one's suspected anyone else.

But I don't like it. :eek:

I'm not arguing to like it. I don't particularly like it myself. You are correct that ultimately it is our only tool to secure victory.

What I am arguing is that because DAY ONE lynches usually (not always, obviously) are not positive for the village that we take a deliberate step to slow down the pace of the killing.

I would not be arguing this line if we did not have a DAY FIVE/SIX target that has a scenario for a Ward win. Given how little information we will have through the course of the game, I think we need to keep as many options for victory open as possible.

Having this definite end date changes the dynamics of this game, in my estimation.

Thinlómien

10-27-2016, 04:29 PM

At least this deadline isn't something ridiculous like 3 am for you guys!It's exactly 3am Finnish time. I was supposed to be in bed at the very latest half an hour ago. A least it's not 6am like in some games. :p

++Legate

for a rep.

As for the rest

++Inzil

if I actually had to cast a lynch vote toDay. Something a little off about him and his polite and detached yet a little too soup-stirring discussion of the rules. I also found Kuru a tad weird until his latest post which made me feel a lot better about him, and I'm a little conflicted about Lottie but when am I not.

edit: xed with Shasta x2 and Kuru

Loslote

10-27-2016, 04:32 PM

I'm not arguing to like it. I don't particularly like it myself. You are correct that ultimately it is our only tool to secure victory.

What I am arguing is that because DAY ONE lynches usually (not always, obviously) are not positive for the village that we take a deliberate step to slow down the pace of the killing.

I agree - I am usually for lynching Day 1, too. I want to hold our fire toDay partially because we want to keep our numbers up as long as we can, partially because Day 1 lynches can be particularly dangerous for Gifteds, and we desperately need to keep those alive, and partially because we will gain no real information about the person we lynch. We will not learn their alignment, and they probably will not have said enough to tie them back to their fellow wolves even if they did end up being wolves. I think a Day 2 lynch would be much more telling. So, yes, not lynching anyone leaves a bad taste in my mouth, but I do think it would be the best choice to hold off this time, just for toDay.

Edit: Xed with Lommy

Inziladun

10-27-2016, 04:33 PM

I'll go with the majority on whether the rep should send a name.

Like I said before, I'm usually of a mind with Shasta in that not voting helps the baddies. This game does have its quirks that skew my feelings a bit though.

If Legate has some nebulous misgivings about me, I would say I reciprocate. It's mainly a feel, though I didn't (don't) agree with him that those receiving notice they're afflicted by the Breath should say so (see my earlier).

x/d with Kuru, Lommy, and Lottie

Inziladun

10-27-2016, 04:37 PM

++Kuru

Because he seems to have been around enough to know people's thoughts.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-27-2016, 04:40 PM

Oh, and for the Finns that have to vote soon - I think I'd prefer Lottie as representative myself, honestly. That's where I'm leaning, anyway.
I agree. That said,

++Lottie

For the reference then, if I *had* to vote for lynch at this point, I would probably go with

++Inzil (but objectively speaking: NO LYNCH TODAY.)

as vaguely outlined in my post above. Vote for him would be a Day 1 vote, so, really based on very little. His style just generally felt different from a classic, innocent Inzil. But that's about that.

I would not be arguing this line if we did not have a DAY FIVE/SIX target that has a scenario for a Ward win. Given how little information we will have through the course of the game, I think we need to keep as many options for victory open as possible.

Having this definite end date changes the dynamics of this game, in my estimation.
Basically like that. This is, for future reference, the example of the way I like Kuru's thinking to go. But, there we are. We shall see what the situation seems like toMorrow, whether the no-lynch is still a good idea, and whatnot.

Good Night folks, let's hope we're gonna get through this nightmare.

EDIT: x-ed with Lottie and Inzils

Shastanis Althreduin

10-27-2016, 04:40 PM

++Lottie

I'm okay with her being the representative today. I think I'd also be okay with Inzil. I'm going to be heading out here in a bit and I likely won't be here for deadline.

Shastanis Althreduin

10-27-2016, 04:45 PM

Clarification, since I X'ed with my last post - I would also be okay with Inzil as representative. The faux-votes on him for lynch were strange to me, when there is at least one better candidate for a Day 1 throwaway lynch. Not that we're lynching anyone, apparently, but wanting to lynch someone who's been active as opposed to someone like Lal who has been less so, on the first day, seems counterproductive.

Loslote

10-27-2016, 04:46 PM

I would be happy with either Legate or Kuru as representative, since they've both been around, active, and making good points for a while toDay, but I think I'll go with

++Legate

since I agree with more of what he's said thus far. I would not want to vote Inzil, though - he hasn't pinged on my radar, and I think it would be too hasty to vote for him given the village and rules we're playing with this game.

Edit: xed with Shasta

Kuruharan

10-27-2016, 04:53 PM

I'm nailing my colors to the mast for toDAY with...

++Legate for Representative on a platform of no lynch for toDAY.

*bows*

Good luck to the Ward and confusion to the Conspirators!

I might be back but I wanted to make sure I got a vote in.

Boromir88

10-27-2016, 04:56 PM

My dear sally, some of us are in a constant state of demoralization

I would think the conspirators are going to be active in vying for being a representative. Gives them control of what name to send to the guard. And with no knowing of role upon death, there's no way to verify the intentions of the representative.

There's always that fall back excuse of "well I didn't go with the majority because I felt differently, obviously." And there's really no way to confirm if that's true or not.

Voting for a rep, and clearly stating if you become the rep who would you report to the guards should be a requirement.

For Representative:

++Shasta

Those who don't seek to have the power of deciding another's fate are the most deserving of being a representative.

And who's name I would send in toDay? None. I usually show no mercy when it comes to these things, but this time feels different. A cautious, hold out and stay the course seems like a logical (and winnable) approach. For the time being.

Edit: Writing from my phone means I crossed with a lot of people...last post I read was Kuru's #60

Nerwen

10-27-2016, 05:07 PM

I am in favour of no-lynch toDay, and perhaps on any Day when we feel collectively clueless.

For the entire game? I think not. Firstly, it requires basically everything to go our way- the odds of it working aren't actually that good. Secondly- well, what Lommy said- we're not really playing if we just sit passively waiting for rescue, are we?

EDIT:x'd with Kuru and Boro.

Nerwen

10-27-2016, 05:19 PM

Anyway-
++Legate for Representative on a "no-lynch" platform.

Nerwen

10-27-2016, 05:43 PM

My dear sally, some of us are in a constant state of demoralization

I would think the conspirators are going to be active in vying for being a representative. Gives them control of what name to send to the guard. And with no knowing of role upon death, there's no way to verify the intentions of the representative.

There's always that fall back excuse of "well I didn't go with the majority because I felt differently, obviously." And there's really no way to confirm if that's true or not.

Voting for a rep, and clearly stating if you become the rep who would you report to the guards should be a requirement.
Also, recall that in this game we have no "official" way of distinguishing between lynch victim and Night-kill- we just get two dead people each morning (barring saves and no-lynches). So knowing which was *supposed* to be the lynch would help.

satansaloser2005

10-27-2016, 06:03 PM

After much discussion, the population of the Ward had made a decision, which was....not to decide much of anything at all.

"We can wait it out," said some.

"We have to take action!" others insisted. "We can't sit around and accept our fate."

"Look at my horse," interjected Kuru. "My horse is-"

"Okay, I guess," said Boro.

One thing everyone agreed on was that the loss of Phantom was truly a tragic one, but even then, there were dissenting voices.

Some time later, the group decided they should select someone to present a message to the guards, but that that person shouldn't actually say anything.

Legate sat cross-legged on a small box full of spare rope pieces. In the end, he stood on it, and the others elected that he would be the one to report to the guards. Still, discussion continued, with some despairing over numbers and others finding some hope in their chances of surviving the next few days.

"The sun is setting," Sally reminded everyone after a time. "You should all turn in for the night."

Legate stayed behind, mulling over what he should, or perhaps should not, tell the guards.

Patients
Nerwen
Kuru
McCaber
Lottie
Lalaith
Lommy
Legate
Dun
Boro
Shasta

The Morgue
Phantom (for posterity)

satansaloser2005

10-28-2016, 06:00 PM

Throughout the night, patients tossed and turned, unable to rest for fear that yet another of them would be gone by the dawn.

In the darkness, three of the Ward crept from their respective homes, meeting in a small alley behind an empty cottage.

"Tonight we have to try harder. They mourn for Phantom, and tonight's loss will be great as well, but we must take even more."

"How much more?"

"Well, obviously all of them eventually, but for tonight....well, come with me."

The house they approached had cheery flowers outside, though these were wilting from the cold. Peeking inside the window, they could see a sleeping figure curled in bed, mumbling inaudibly mid-dream.

"Perfect. There will be panic in the streets when they find this one."

"More than Phantom?"

"Don't be ridiculous. You will curse the day, blah blah. Better than Nilp though. Everyone assumed he did that to himself. There will be no such mistake this time."

The third figure drew some rope from under their cloak. "Let's get to work...."

~~~~~~~~

Though sleep did not come easily to any in the Ward, one in particular had been desperate for peace since the previous day. Surprisingly, dreams were pleasant, and in the morning, the sense of dread had lessened. Once out in the sunlight, it seemed like maybe, just maybe, everything would turn out all right.

A new day had come, and with it, new challenges, but also new hope.

Patients
Nerwen
Kuru
McCaber
Lottie
Lalaith
Lommy
Legate
Dun
Boro
Shasta

The Morgue
Phantom (for posterity)

Inziladun

10-28-2016, 06:42 PM

So Bard was successful, and no one was dispatched to the guards. Not a bad start.

Ok, I guess it wouldn't hurt for the would-be afflicted to out themselves (cue Legate-180™.

Loslote

10-28-2016, 06:56 PM

So Bard was successful, and no one was dispatched to the guards. Not a bad start.

Ok, I guess it wouldn't hurt for the would-be afflicted to out themselves (cue Legate-180™.

Give credit to the proper person - I do believe the Herbalist is the person responsible for last Night's miracle. ;)

Kuruharan

10-28-2016, 06:59 PM

Thank you, Legate for keeping your word. You are clearly a cut above most legislative representatives throughout history!

/removes hat

So Bard was successful, and no one was dispatched to the guards. Not a bad start.

Ok, I guess it wouldn't hurt for the would-be afflicted to out themselves (cue Legate-180™.

The way the narration reads to me, it sounds like the Herbalist saved the day.

Xed with Lottie.

satansaloser2005

10-28-2016, 07:00 PM

Give credit to the proper person - I do believe the Herbalist is the person responsible for last Night's miracle. ;)

I can neither confirm nor deny this.

x'd with Kuru

Loslote

10-28-2016, 07:00 PM

I don't agree with this so much. I think the Herbalist should have freedom to exercise their judgment.

In the light of the new Day, one free of the clouds of despair, this does strike me as suspicious - why would you immediately balk at the idea that the Herbalist and the village should plot together unless that makes your job, as a wolf, that much harder? This kind of plan makes it almost impossible for wolves to false reveal as afflicted by the black breath, which makes it much, much more difficult for the wolves' kills to stick. I wouldn't be surprised if this was Kuruwolf panicking a little when he realized how much harder the game would be if we did implement that kind of plan in the event of a false reveal.

Edit: xed with Kuru and with our dear moddess

Kuruharan

10-28-2016, 07:15 PM

In the light of the new Day, one free of the clouds of despair, this does strike me as suspicious - why would you immediately balk at the idea that the Herbalist and the village should plot together unless that makes your job, as a wolf, that much harder? This kind of plan makes it almost impossible for wolves to false reveal as afflicted by the black breath, which makes it much, much more difficult for the wolves' kills to stick. I wouldn't be surprised if this was Kuruwolf panicking a little when he realized how much harder the game would be if we did implement that kind of plan in the event of a false reveal.

Edit: xed with Kuru and with our dear moddess

Simple, I was concerned yesterday with the wolves being able to vote together as a block to direct treatment away from ailing ordos, thereby whittling down our numbers to reach their target on DAY SIX. I didn't want to mention it yesterDAY on the off chance that the wolves wouldn't be able to think of it in time.

I also thought that yesterDAY the Herbalist probably already had enough to go on, and as it turned out I was right.

Now, over the past NIGHT I have had a re-think and to some extent I have kind of changed my mind on the matter. At the very least we should discuss the possibilities further.

However, I think it more important at the moment to state my belief that people who have the Black Breath must indicate so. Otherwise there could potentially be ambiguity as far as lynches vs. Black Breath deaths and that is something the Ward must avoid. We need as many threads to follow here as possible.

Now, this obviously opens the door for imposters, but I think we have a good Herbalist in our midst and the rest of us can certainly weigh in on who we think is more trustworthy.

And also, imposterdom bears great risks for the wolves as well.

Loslote

10-28-2016, 07:20 PM

Simple, I was concerned yesterday with the wolves being able to vote together as a block to direct treatment away from ailing ordos, thereby whittling down our numbers to reach their target on DAY SIX. I didn't want to mention it yesterDAY on the off chance that the wolves wouldn't be able to think of it in time.

Oh, actually, that makes a lot more sense. I had meant that we would only tell the Herbalist what to do in the case that we had two competing reveals - namely, we would tell the Herbalist which of the two reveals to protect, so that we could learn the roles of both. I didn't mean that we would tell the Herbalist what to do if we didn't have competing reveals, and I can see how you wouldn't have liked that suggestion.

Kuruharan

10-28-2016, 07:36 PM

Oh, actually, that makes a lot more sense. I had meant that we would only tell the Herbalist what to do in the case that we had two competing reveals - namely, we would tell the Herbalist which of the two reveals to protect, so that we could learn the roles of both. I didn't mean that we would tell the Herbalist what to do if we didn't have competing reveals, and I can see how you wouldn't have liked that suggestion.

Well, I'm still not totally sold on the idea. We need to talk about the potential hiccups a bit more before implementing.

I also want to hasten to add before I must step away from the computer for some time my belief that the Herbalist's identity must stay as close to an absolute secret as possible. No hints, no nothing. Not unless things are just absolutely desperate.

I realize that may seem counter-intuitive to the overall drive for maximizing our information, and I will admit that to some extent it is, but I believe that survival of the maximum number of Ward inmates is critical to our success and the Herbalist has the most power in preventing deaths.

Nerwen

10-28-2016, 07:38 PM

"Woe! Woe!" Nerwen staggered from her house. "Night Two, woe!"

She stumbled over her wilted flower bed and shook herself awake. "Sorry, I was having a terrible nightmare about a terrible night mare- Night Two, Day One's mate. A great black equine monster, like the very steeds of the Nazgul (before they took to the air I mean), galloping off to Mordor with me helpless on her back! I know it was just a dream, but even in daylight, the horror of it clings to me like a shroud."

Nerwen covered her face with her shaking hands. "Whatever will become of us? It all seems so hopeless..."

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 01:41 AM

Am I still alone in my redoubled misery? Has even he whom I love forsaken me? AAAIIIEEEE! Alone! All, all aloooone!

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 03:32 AM

Originally Posted by Loslote
Oh, actually, that makes a lot more sense. I had meant that we would only tell the Herbalist what to do in the case that we had two competing reveals - namely, we would tell the Herbalist which of the two reveals to protect, so that we could learn the roles of both. I didn't mean that we would tell the Herbalist what to do if we didn't have competing reveals, and I can see how you wouldn't have liked that suggestion.

Well, I'm still not totally sold on the idea. We need to talk about the potential hiccups a bit more before implementing.

I also want to hasten to add before I must step away from the computer for some time my belief that the Herbalist's identity must stay as close to an absolute secret as possible. No hints, no nothing. Not unless things are just absolutely desperate.

I realize that may seem counter-intuitive to the overall drive for maximizing our information, and I will admit that to some extent it is, but I believe that survival of the maximum number of Ward inmates is critical to our success and the Herbalist has the most power in preventing deaths.
Regarding a matter which is now of great interest to me- I think it needs to be pointed out that the Herbalist can't save everyone. We don't (I think) know how many "saves" he or she gets, but given how small the village is, I'd say no more than two or three- and it seems one has been used. Thus, it's not a simple matter of "which one to save" in the case of competing reveals, as by then the Herbalist might no longer have the option at all, or might want to reserve it for the end game.

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 03:41 AM

And now back to our usual programme.

Aaaiieee! Woe is me, for doom has come upon me! Woe, for the fiends who walk among us have brought me dreams of blackest despair! All is lost! All must perish!
:eek::eek::eek:

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 05:15 AM

Further (dark, despairing) thoughts.

WHY MEEEEE? WHYYYYYYY?

No seriously, why? If I were a wolf, there's people I'd have targeted first- I won't say who they are at this point, of course.

WHAT DID I DOOOOO?

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-29-2016, 05:21 AM

Well this is certainly a much more positive Day start than one would think. In this light, the possibilities to "wait it out" seem just that much better.

Which brings me back to the question we had on the Day before. On personal level, I would prefer an "active" game, but I am still wondering whether, under the circumstances (we just got a Day extra, basically) "waiting it out" isn't a better strategy. Of course, the problem with the WWs being able to kill the Gifteds and winning that way still stands. On the other hand, if they are reduced to one kill per Night, and higher number of people to choose from, their chances are thinning considerably. I am not the one for statistics, in fact I plainly dislike such "probability" calculations because real world doesn't operate that way, but still it is clear to me that less dead people = more chances for the WWs to pick a wrong kill. Also, less chance to accidentally lynch a Gifted.

Ok, I guess it wouldn't hurt for the would-be afflicted to out themselves (cue Legate-180™.
Welcome to the club.

Thank you, Legate for keeping your word. You are clearly a cut above most legislative representatives throughout history!
You're certainly welcome. Maybe I should have done a career in politics, after all.

And also, imposterdom bears great risks for the wolves as well.
That is the main thing that makes me think it's a good idea if Blackbreathed people make their condition known. It's a very risky thing for the WWs to do so.

And that also, incidentally, makes me think that the "waiting out" approach would force the WWs to fight on the defensive, so to say. They would be (well, I think they already are) forced to be pro-active, which means that they would have to e.g. exactly try to be impostors, try to push people towards something, simply, put themselves in danger.

It would be a "strategic" game for the village, rather than "tactical", so to say. Like I am not saying we should not lynch anyone, even toDay. Like I said, from the "playing" perspective, I would prefer that (as in, more interesting), plus there is still the fact that we pick what is our "win condition" the same way as the WWs do. But generally, we don't really learn anything from the deaths (lynches), and so on... so... well, what do you people think?

(Of course, nothing prevents us from discussing potential suspects and in the end decide that we don't want to lynch anyone toDay after all, either. Actually that might be preferable. But whatever.)

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

Inziladun

10-29-2016, 06:50 AM

I also thought that yesterDAY the Herbalist probably already had enough to go on, and as it turned out I was right.

Quite a supposition!

Oh, actually, that makes a lot more sense. I had meant that we would only tell the Herbalist what to do in the case that we had two competing reveals - namely, we would tell the Herbalist which of the two reveals to protect, so that we could learn the roles of both. I didn't mean that we would tell the Herbalist what to do if we didn't have competing reveals, and I can see how you wouldn't have liked that suggestion.

How do we 'learn the roles of both'?

And we have Nerwen, 'afflicted', then better, then relapsing? Also, if the Herbalist was indeed responsible for her protection, then xe has a quandary toNight whether to see to her again.

Boromir88

10-29-2016, 07:17 AM

Legate, Lommy...why would you have gone with Inzil yesterday, if we had to make a lynch?

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 07:28 AM

Well this is certainly a much more positive Day start than one would think. In this light, the possibilities to "wait it out" seem just that much better.

Which brings me back to the question we had on the Day before. On personal level, I would prefer an "active" game, but I am still wondering whether, under the circumstances (we just got a Day extra, basically) "waiting it out" isn't a better strategy. Of course, the problem with the WWs being able to kill the Gifteds and winning that way still stands. On the other hand, if they are reduced to one kill per Night, and higher number of people to choose from, their chances are thinning considerably. I am not the one for statistics, in fact I plainly dislike such "probability" calculations because real world doesn't operate that way, but still it is clear to me that less dead people = more chances for the WWs to pick a wrong kill. Also, less chance to accidentally lynch a Gifted.
They already only have one kill per Night. The other kill is ours, i.e. the lynch (unless, of course, a wolf became representative- and a wolf could subvert any general strategy). Your way, the wolves can kill us freely, while we have *no* chance to kill *any* wolves.

And that also, incidentally, makes me think that the "waiting out" approach would force the WWs to fight on the defensive, so to say. They would be (well, I think they already are) forced to be pro-active, which means that they would have to e.g. exactly try to be impostors, try to push people towards something, simply, put themselves in danger.
Why? We're not even really looking for them, in this scenario. All they have to do is keep killing us and hope to hit the gifteds- and gifteds are rather prone to inadvertent "tells".

It would be a "strategic" game for the village, rather than "tactical", so to say. Like I am not saying we should not lynch anyone, even toDay. Like I said, from the "playing" perspective, I would prefer that (as in, more interesting), plus there is still the fact that we pick what is our "win condition" the same way as the WWs do. But generally, we don't really learn anything from the deaths (lynches), and so on... so... well, what do you people think?
What I said yesterDay: we should exercise the no-lynch option if we simply have no idea, but we do our best to hunt wolves.

Note also that in your scenario the number of wolves vs innocents *certainly* increases (rather than possibly, as in a normal game), making it ever easier for them to control the vote- and there may well come a point where a wolf-rep could safely lynch at will.

Thiis a potential problem whatever we do, but it definitely happens if no wolves die.

(Of course, nothing prevents us from discussing potential suspects and in the end decide that we don't want to lynch anyone toDay after all, either. Actually that might be preferable. But whatever.)

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen
As I said, I think this decision of whether or not to lynch should be on a Day by Day basis rather than an over-arching strategy for the whole game.
Edit: x'd with Zil & Boro.

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 07:33 AM

Quite a supposition!

How do we 'learn the roles of both'?

And we have Nerwen, 'afflicted', then better, then relapsing? Also, if the Herbalist was indeed responsible for her protection, then xe has a quandary toNight whether to see to her again.
Hang on. What do you suppose has happened, Zil?

Kuruharan

10-29-2016, 08:38 AM

Don't have a lot of time at this specific moment, will later.

But I wanted to pop in and say that I am in favor of considering the no-lynch tactic again toDAY.

However, that being said, unless McCaber turns up toDAY we are going to lose him.

And also note, I said "consider." I'm not advocating adoption of it at this time.

satansaloser2005

10-29-2016, 08:59 AM

I've just sent a message to McCaber (which my phone insists is supposed to be macabre) on FB.

Inziladun

10-29-2016, 09:42 AM

Hang on. What do you suppose has happened, Zil?

A bad lot of sweet galenas?

Inziladun

10-29-2016, 09:54 AM

Really though, what am I missing here?

Herbalist – The herbalist is able to reduce the effects of the Black Breath by creating a soothing brew from rare herbs. One leaf of said herb will bring someone back from the brink of despair, returning them to their previous state. Since the Ward is locked, the herbalist's supply is limited, and they are the only one who is capable of administering the herbs.

The herbalist may brew during both Day and Night phase, but their picks must be submitted one hour prior to the deadline in order to be valid. The herbalist is not required to choose a target during each phase. They are allowed to treat themselves, and they may heal the same person as many times in a row as they wish, but they have a finite number of herbs (which will be determined by the final size of the village) and can only assist one person per phase.

Note: If the herbalist treats someone on the same Night they are targeted by the conspirators, the herbs have no effect, as the person is not officially under the effects until the morning.

Why does someone protected relapse? And according to this, the Herbalist could not have caused the Conspirator's target to feel better that Night.

Am I being incredibly thick? I could blame it on pain meds, only I haven't had any for days.

Lalaith

10-29-2016, 10:15 AM

Hello everyone. So pleased to see we are all still here - well done, Herbalist or Bard!
On the subject of which, can someone explain how the healing powers of our two Gifteds differ in practice?
The only difference I can work out is that the Bard cannot heal him/herself and the Herbalist's supplies are limited....however, there might be an argument for the two to work together and protect each other in tandem while we wait it out?
I'm sure this thesis has flaws - please someone point them out. The main flaw I can see is that it seems rather unsporting.

Lalaith

10-29-2016, 10:19 AM

And according to this, the Herbalist could not have caused the Conspirator's target to feel better that Night.

the way I read it, the Herbalist couldn't have protected Lottie on Night One, when she was breathed on. They could however dose her up during Day One, once she had told us how poorly she was, as long as they got their dose in an hour before deadline.
But I may be wrong.

Lalaith

10-29-2016, 10:36 AM

Hmmm.
I've just been reading the rules again and have managed to spot an obvious flaw in my thesis - there are no reveals allowed so any co-operation would have to be done on the basis of 'hints and speculation' which could be very risky.
However, that being said, unless McCaber turns up toDAY we are going to lose him.
Good point. And on that note I will make sure to vote toDay. Sorry about yesterDay - I really was too tired and confused to make a decision. Being on GMT will mean me having to vote very early each Day, btw.

Loslote

10-29-2016, 11:08 AM

The Bard protects their target, preventing them from being demoralized. The Herbalist heals their target after they have been demoralized, and can only do so a finite number of times. I had been demoralized and would have been dead toDay, except that the Herbalist healed me. Nerwen has, apparently, been demoralized now. I am a little suspicious, though - since McCaber hasn't shown up, the wolves may have taken this opportunity to try to give one of their own "known innocent" status by targeting McCaber, then having Nerwen reveal herself as the afflicted, then letting McCaber be modfired, leaving no one to die the following night - which we would interpret as another successful Herbalist save. This may not be the case, of course, but I am wary.

Lalaith

10-29-2016, 11:16 AM

The Bard protects their target, preventing them from being demoralized.
Right - so the Bard has to guess beforehand who the Conspirators will target, but the Herbalist can act on information given?

Kuruharan

10-29-2016, 11:36 AM

Lalaith

10-29-2016, 11:43 AM

I am a little dismayed at the lack of conversation today.
I think people have been turning up and finding themselves alone.
Poor Nerwen talking to herself all morning, then I was just nattering on to myself just now...

Thinlómien

10-29-2016, 12:17 PM

I'm kinda having hard time getting into this game - I wonder if it's been too long since there was a game or if it's just the new rules. Waiting out seems a smart overall strategy if we're unsure, but I feel like there must be some catch we haven't figured out. (Not to mention I don't like not voting.)

The one thing that is pretty obvious to me Lottie should be our representative toDay. But that's about as far as my clarity of mind goes.

Legate, Lommy...why would you have gone with Inzil yesterday, if we had to make a lynch? I said I find his polite and distanced yet slightly confusion mongering way of discussing the rules stood out to me, but other than that there really wasn't anything dramatic. What are you getting at? Noted something interesting about him?

The McCaber situation is something to consider. In general, I like to ignore modkills because they are not, in a sense, part of the actual game. Lottie's theory about Nerwen's fake despair is interesting. I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.

I also have to echo Kuru about the silence. It's creepy. (Not that I have been around toDay either, but I'm going to now.) And I would also like to echo myself from yesterDay about the general lack of suspicion being thrown around. I can't help but to think it's playing into the wolves' hands (paws?).

Inziladun

10-29-2016, 12:36 PM

The one thing that is pretty obvious to me Lottie should be our representative toDay. But that's about as far as my clarity of mind goes.

Maybe. I wouldn't say it's obvious, but I would consider it.

I said I find his polite and 'Distanced yet slightly confusion mongering way of discussing the rules' stood out to me, but other than that there really wasn't anything dramatic.

That addled, huh? Wow. :eek:

I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.

I'm a bit leery of Nerwen. But as you said, the lack of a counter is something to think about. And indeed why Cab?

I also have to echo Kuru about the silence. It's creepy. (Not that I have been around toDay either, but I'm going to now.) And I would also like to echo myself from yesterDay about the general lack of suspicion being thrown around. I can't help but to think it's playing into the wolves' hands (paws?).

At this point I'm wondering if someone shouldn't be reported by the Rep toNight.

Loslote

10-29-2016, 12:48 PM

I'm a bit leery of Nerwen. But as you said, the lack of a counter is something to think about. And indeed why Cab?

Well, if the wolves realized that their kills probably weren't going to go through until they used up the Herbalist's healing ability, why not try a risky strategy? Bank on McCaber not showing up, and using him being modfired as cover for one of their own to become a "known innocent". Obviously, if McCaber comes back, they'd be out a wolf, but it's the best shot they'd have of a fake Black Breath reveal all game. And I agree with Lommy - Nerwen's despairing posts felt disingenuous to me, as well.

Kuruharan

10-29-2016, 12:50 PM

Behold my Creation!

UPDATED NO LYNCH SCENARIO – WORST CASE OF NO SUCCESSFUL SAVES
Day One
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

Day Two
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

Day Three
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1

Day Four
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1
Player 2

Day Five
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3

Day Six – Ride of the Rohirrim
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
Player 1
Player 2
Player 3
Player 4

The passive route is more doable now. If the gifteds can block/save one more time and one of them lives, then the wolves can't kill us fast enough to win.

But, and it is a big but, both gifteds have to survive.

Inziladun

10-29-2016, 12:54 PM

Well, if the wolves realized that their kills probably weren't going to go through until they used up the Herbalist's healing ability, why not try a risky strategy? Bank on McCaber not showing up, and using him being modfired as cover for one of their own to become a "known innocent". Obviously, if McCaber comes back, they'd be out a wolf, but it's the best shot they'd have of a fake Black Breath reveal all game.

I'd say that was a very risky strategy, but maybe the firm deadline could make it a bit more attractive?

And I agree with Lommy - Nerwen's despairing posts felt disingenuous to me, as well.

At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen.

x/d with Kuru

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 01:15 PM

Nerwen has, apparently, been demoralized now. I am a little suspicious, though - since McCaber hasn't shown up, the wolves may have taken this opportunity to try to give one of their own "known innocent" status by targeting McCaber, then having Nerwen reveal herself as the afflicted, then letting McCaber be modfired, leaving no one to die the following night - which we would interpret as another successful Herbalist save. This may not be the case, of course, but I am wary.
You're saying the wolves would deliberately miss a kill, in such a numbers-based game? Does that make sense? And if they were willing to try that, for some reason, why would a modfire candidate be needed, when they could just not send in a kill?

I said I find his polite and distanced yet slightly confusion mongering way of discussing the rules stood out to me, but other than that there really wasn't anything dramatic. What are you getting at? Noted something interesting about him?
Just a bit eyebrow-raising, especially the last sentence. Could be read as Wolflomien testing the waters of suspicion on either an innocent Zil or a Wolfzil.

The McCaber situation is something to consider. In general, I like to ignore modkills because they are not, in a sense, part of the actual game. Lottie's theory about Nerwen's fake despair is interesting. I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.
Very eyebrow-raising, given that Lottie's "case" against me really doesn't make much sense- but what wolf could resist encouraging one almost-known-innocent to go after the other?

It may be nothing more than rusty playing, of course- but still, I think "something to consider".

Edit: x'd since Lommy at #105.

Loslote

10-29-2016, 01:23 PM

You're saying the wolves would deliberately miss a kill, in such a numbers-based game? Does that make sense? And if they were willing to try that, for some reason, why would a modfire candidate be needed, when they could just not send in a kill?

Well, not sending in a name would work, too, and would be much less risky, but the narration indicated that the wolves did whisper their poison in someone's ear last night, so either it was you or it was someone else who the wolves didn't think would be around to contradict your story. I'm not saying you are for sure evil, either - just that I would not be quick to assume that someone is innocent just because they say they are demoralized and no one else jumps in to say they're wrong.

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 01:25 PM

I'd say that was a very risky strategy, but maybe the firm deadline could make it a bit more attractive?

At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen.

x/d with Kuru
And what I said about Lommy applies to Zil, and harder.

No, this is not just because I'm the target- look how his "suspicion" just builds out of thin air.

Edit: x'd with Lottie.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-29-2016, 01:27 PM

Legate, Lommy...why would you have gone with Inzil yesterday, if we had to make a lynch?
Simply - out of all the people, not that anybody said anything much, it was Day 1 and all, you know the drill - out of all the people, he would be the one whose way of acting seemed the most worthy of suspicion to me. It was the general tone of his posts which seemed to me different from the innocent Inzil I know, but that's about it. Also (but that is not a suspicion-worthy thing overall, just something that marked him in the limited field of Day 1) has been a certain confusing tone to him which actually persists until toDay (I totally didn't get his questions regarding Nerwen?), although that is purely just confusing and I don't know what to make of it. So that is not the question. As for now, I still have some raised eyebrow over him, but that may be a residue from yesterDay and partly also the confusion (as in, what is he trying to say? Moreover, for what purpose?).

They already only have one kill per Night. The other kill is ours, i.e. the lynch (unless, of course, a wolf became representative- and a wolf could subvert any general strategy). Your way, the wolves can kill us freely, while we have *no* chance to kill *any* wolves.
Point taken. That's really what I said about the game being now a question of "strategy" rather than "tactics". The balance is on the long-term rather than short-term stuff. The WWs of course can kill us freely, however, that's the only thing they can do - and, as we have seen this morning, even that might not work at all! We still have two "Rangers", effectively. If I now take the basic non-vote case as an example: we lynch nobody and WWs kill people on Night 3, Night 4 and Night 5. If they don't manage to kill the two Gifteds, we are ok in numbers. And on top of everything, there is still a chance the Gifteds protect some of the people.

Whereas if we lynch people, therefore making the village smaller, we are also giving the WWs bigger chance of targeting the Gifteds (if I discount the risk of accidentally lynching a Gifted ourselves).

Why? We're not even really looking for them, in this scenario. All they have to do is keep killing us and hope to hit the gifteds- and gifteds are rather prone to inadvertent "tells".
I suggest to look for Wolves. For certain. That's even why I stated who I would want to vote for yesterDay to lynch if I had to, even though at that point it was really based on almost zero info (Day 1...). I think if we all do it and voice our opinions as if this were a "normal" game, it helps us to get the general picture and it may help us bag a Wolf if we decide (at any point) to actually lynch someone after all.

The disadvantage I see in this is that we are not going to even learn whether we lynched correctly.

What I said yesterDay: we should exercise the no-lynch option if we simply have no idea, but we do our best to hunt wolves.
I agree with this. However, I would like to point out that so far more or less nobody seemed to be doing that. It won't do if we start debating two hours before DL (or ten minutes before somebody needs to go to sleep) who we find suspicious AND ALSO who we want to select as Rep. So if yes, please let's start doing it now.

I said as much already yesterDay: People should say whom do they suspect, early enough, and then also select the Rep. If we are hunting Wolves, the game forces us to actually go through the process of selecting a candidate twice, because first we should decide who we suspect, and then cast the vote for the Rep. (That, granted, can be done pretty quickly if we see who is the most "trustworthy" when it comes to sending in the name of the person we want to see lynched, but it does require everyone saying who they would lynch, because that way we can know whom to vote as Rep!!!)

Note also that in your scenario the number of wolves vs innocents *certainly* increases (rather than possibly, as in a normal game), making it ever easier for them to control the vote- and there may well come a point where a wolf-rep could safely lynch at will.
Well it won't happen by pure numbers (if we don't lynch anyone ever, there will still be more innocents than Wolves). On top of that (pure theoretical scenario here, but just to make the point) if we decided never ever to lynch anyone and just sit for the rest of the game, then the WWs could not control the vote, because the vote would only serve the purpose not to vote anyone. And at the moment the Rep betrayed our trust (i.e. lynched someone when it was stated that there should be no lynch), they would get lynched the next Day, obviously. So the WWs could - in the ideal state - do it only on the very last Day, and (hopefully, presumably, statistically) that should not save them if both Gifteds were still alive. (But yes, I acknowledge that is a risk.)

As I said, I think this decision of whether or not to lynch should be on a Day by Day basis rather than an over-arching strategy for the whole game.
Agreed agreed, as has been said many times. Just for the time being, I am not yet decided what would my preference for toDay be. If we don't get a clear picture whom we want to lynch, we can afford not doing it and it might be fine. We got ourselves an extra Day, after all. But if we get some good idea whom to lynch, let's do it, by all means.

I'm kinda having hard time getting into this game - I wonder if it's been too long since there was a game or if it's just the new rules. Waiting out seems a smart overall strategy if we're unsure, but I feel like there must be some catch we haven't figured out. (Not to mention I don't like not voting.)
Well one obvious catch, as Nerwen mentioned, is the fact that the Wolves will be here in full strength, all the time. And that they can theoretically win just by killing two Gifteds. But they can do it in any case, of course. It is really mostly about what do we decide to do.

The one thing that is pretty obvious to me Lottie should be our representative toDay. But that's about as far as my clarity of mind goes.
That, actually, seems like a reasonable thing. Even though I hasten to point out that people we consider likely to be innocent do not need to always be right in their opinions (e.g. if we wanted to make a lynch), but at least they should not be Wolves (and I would therefore expect them to honor whatever the village decides to do - and if they didn't, to bear the consequences, i.e. lynch the next Day).

And at least as long as we don't get a competing sick-person, we should probably assume that whoever is sick is sick. The same goes for Nerwen toDay. I can imagine a scenario where a Wolf might try to fake it, but I think it would require too much risk on their part. Unless, of course, unless they felt already threatened by the danger of being "waited out" by the village. If so, they probably would want to act as soon as possible. For that particular reason, speaking of that, I would not recommend Nerwen (or always the "sick" person anyway) to be selected for the Rep on this Day, just in case.

The McCaber situation is something to consider. In general, I like to ignore modkills because they are not, in a sense, part of the actual game. Lottie's theory about Nerwen's fake despair is interesting. I mean, when I saw Nerwen's posts, they seemed really fishy to me, but since there's been no counter-claim I thought it's nothing. But if the wolves indeed went for McCaber, it would make sense. Not sure it'd make sense for them to go for McCaber in the first place though.
This just as an addendum to what I just said; I also think it unlikely the WWs would target Cab, and it would be fairly complicated. But see above.

But anyway: we are probably losing McCaber toNight, so that is one more point to consider in regards to the ratio of living people vs. total of WWs etc., so... well.

My thoughts about people toDay to follow... maybe rather in a different post, this is probably long already, and maybe someone will post meanwhile.

EDIT: x-ed after Lommy... whoa whoa, what an activity suddenly

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 01:34 PM

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 01:41 PM

Well it won't happen by pure numbers (if we don't lynch anyone ever, there will still be more innocents than Wolves). On top of that (pure theoretical scenario here, but just to make the point) if we decided never ever to lynch anyone and just sit for the rest of the game, then the WWs could not control the vote, because the vote would only serve the purpose not to vote anyone. And at the moment the Rep betrayed our trust (i.e. lynched someone when it was stated that there should be no lynch), they would get lynched the next Day, obviously. So the WWs could - in the ideal state - do it only on the very last Day, and (hopefully, presumably, statistically) that should not save them if both Gifteds were still alive. (But yes, I acknowledge that is a risk.)
The trouble is, I can think of a way a Wolf-rep could, potentially, get away with lynching someone regardless. For obvious reasons I am not going to say what it is.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-29-2016, 01:42 PM

Well, not sending in a name would work, too, and would be much less risky, but the narration indicated that the wolves did whisper their poison in someone's ear last night, so either it was you or it was someone else who the wolves didn't think would be around to contradict your story. I'm not saying you are for sure evil, either - just that I would not be quick to assume that someone is innocent just because they say they are demoralized and no one else jumps in to say they're wrong.
Hey, good perception there! Because that crossed my mind as well, that the WWs might forgo a kill, but now this actually is out of question. And I really, really find it hard that they would bet on killing McCaber. That's too much overcombination to begin with, and too risky if he turned up. Or even a risk if modfires actually are written into the narration as normal deaths, or as something else.

Hmm. I flip-flopped a couple of times while reading the previous stuff, but I am more inclined to trust Nerwen for the time being. She is being somewhat defensive, to be sure, but overall - after considering what Lottie just pointed out - I would think it more likely that Nerwen's utterly dismayed state is genuine.

I'd say that was a very risky strategy, but maybe the firm deadline could make it a bit more attractive?
Not sending a name would be a risky strategy worth trying. But since that didn't happen... sending Cab's name would be much riskier strategy and not worth trying, in my opinion. Of course depends on the Wolves, but really - if they wanted to do that, the logical thing would be not to send a name and then pretend to be sick, not to send a name and hope the person is modfired.

At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen.
Why? I think this certainly does not make any sense whatsoever. At least not at this point.

EDIT: x-ed with two Nerwens

Shastanis Althreduin

10-29-2016, 01:51 PM

Lalaith

10-29-2016, 01:53 PM

It won't do if we start debating two hours before DL (or ten minutes before somebody needs to go to sleep) who we find suspicious AND ALSO who we want to select as Rep. So if yes, please let's start doing it now.
Yes - sound and sensible talk here, Legate. This has been what's worrying me, too. We've got a split village in terms of time zones and we don't know on which side of the sundering seas the majority of wolves are on. So we need to have set up some kind of decision/strategy before the Europeans go to bed.
I do agree that Lottie should be representative tonight, I can't logically see that she could be guilty.

Loslote

10-29-2016, 01:56 PM

While I do think the wolves would be very eager to get away with a fake reveal, I also agree that at this point in the game the fake-reveal theory would be way over-complicated, and probably did not happen last Night. Especially because it would have been easier to just send in no name, which I hadn't thought of at first.

I initially suggested the fake-reveal theory at least in part because I felt that her despairing posts felt off. Her more recent, more serious posts have felt much more like the Nerwen I'm used to. I do think we should look at Zil's At this point, if there was to be a lynch I'd probably say Nerwen. That struck me as jumping the gun by quite a lot. I hadn't even suggested lynching her - just taking a step back and considering the possibilities before we trusted her reveal completely.

Edit: xed with Shasta and Lalaith

Thinlómien

10-29-2016, 02:03 PM

Okay, now I'm pretty conflicted about Nerwen, I didn't expect such an outburst.

I think if we all do it and voice our opinions as if this were a "normal" game, it helps us to get the general picture and it may help us bag a Wolf if we decide (at any point) to actually lynch someone after all.
The disadvantage I see in this is that we are not going to even learn whether we lynched correctly.Very much agreed. I don't want to give the wolves free passes, and besides, throwing around suspicion never fails to liven up the discussion. I mean, look at toDay. ;) Seriously though, I agree we should start the lynch discussions earlier. The only problem as I see it is that with no lynch yesterDay and no kill last Night, we are virtually having another Day1 as far as evidence goes (and this situation will last, even though other kind of evidence will slowly keep gathering).

The one thing that is pretty obvious to me Lottie should be our representative toDay. But that's about as far as my clarity of mind goes.
That, actually, seems like a reasonable thing. Even though I hasten to point out that people we consider likely to be innocent do not need to always be right in their opinions (e.g. if we wanted to make a lynch), but at least they should not be Wolves (and I would therefore expect them to honor whatever the village decides to do - and if they didn't, to bear the consequences, i.e. lynch the next Day).Lottie, you up for some democracy?

Loslote

10-29-2016, 02:08 PM

Lottie, you up for some democracy?

Sure! Tis the season.

Kuruharan

10-29-2016, 02:09 PM

Well, I had hoped to get some more conversations in before doing this, but time is beginning to dwindle and I think I’m going to have to do this now.

Here is my analysis of the players (mostly) in order of their first post.

Boromir88

Boro has been mostly absent and rather odd when he is around. He has made only one truly substantive post, post 70 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705537&postcount=70), where he says some okay things but is also self-contradictory in his vote.

Conclusion: I don’t know what to make of him. Should not be a priority target at the moment in my estimation.

Thinlómien

Lommy has also been mostly absent, but hasn’t said anything that has been really odd or off either.

I don’t know what else to say about her.

Conclusion: Should not be a priority target.

Legate of Amon Lanc

To my mind, Legate has a lot of positive points so far in this game. Everything he has said and argued for has tended toward keeping the population of the Ward high and pushing us toward the endpoint of the game. Other than one mistake regarding number of wolves (which might be bad but might also have been honest) everything he has said has tended toward making information available and making information less murky. These all earn high points in my book.

Conclusion: I will not at this juncture support any representative that wants to eject Legate.

Lalaith

Was mostly absent yesterDAY and did not vote. Has been more present and talkative toDAY, which is good. However, I don’t feel entirely good about her. She has a way of seeming harmless when she is dangerous and I’ve been getting some of that vibe from her. She has seemed more obstructive than helpful with information to my mind.

Conclusion: Might be an ordo, but I am wary of her. Should not be a priority at the moment.

McCaber

Conclusion: Boy, I wish he’d show up.

And now, this is where things begin to get really tricky.

Inziladun

In my book Inzil has a high number of both negative and positive marks in his register. And I’m begin literal when I say I have a book… ;)
Inzil has the highest number of bad marks but he has the second highest number of good marks. I *really* did not like his post 38 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705505&postcount=38) because hiding information and potential trails is the last thing that we need. I also do not like the fact that he’s a bit crosswise with Legate, and I like the things Legate has been saying.

That being said, he has been an engaged player and he stuck up for his idea from post 38 in post 43 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705510&postcount=43), which in a weird way made me think better of him. My gut impression is that a wolf might not want to stick so noticeably to an idea that could be proved bad if they were just trying to cause trouble.

Just as a gut reaction, I feel better about him toDAY than I did DAY ONE.

Conclusion: Inzil needs watching. My read of him might be all wrong and to some extent I want to give him the benefit of the doubt since he has been participating and talking. However, he might need ejection at some point down the road. Should not be an immediate priority.

Shastanis Althreduin
I do not feel good about Shasta. His first substantive post (post 42 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705509&postcount=42)) related to suppressing information and that does not sit well with me.

He also defended (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705534&postcount=67) Inzil, which maybe unfairly, is something that makes me edgy.

This last note is a bit silly, but I am going to make it anyway. There has been none of his usual banter with Nerwen. That in and of itself is enough to make me suspicious given how close to the center of events Nerwen currently is. Two wolves would not want to draw attention to a connection, especially if one is noisy.

In my book he has no positive marks, not many negatives, but no positive.

Conclusion: He needs lots and lots of watching.

Loslote

I will fully admit to not feeling too good about Lottie during the course of DAY ONE.

However, in the course of my read through during the NIGHT I have come to feel a lot better about her…which has consequently made me feel worse about Nerwen. I even wondered to myself what we would do on DAY TWO if both of them were still alive.

Lo and Behold! :o

On the whole, the things Lottie has said have been sensible and tended toward the accumulation of information that would benefit the Ward. I even have kind of come around to see some merit in one of her suggestions that I did not originally agree with.

Conclusion: Was seemingly the person cured last NIGHT. Should not be a target unless something REALLY weird happens.

Nerwen

Ahh…yes…well…

I had the distinct impression yesterDAY that she was trying to signal that she had the Black Breath. I might have been off, but I had that impression. That does not make her look good to my mind toDAY.

Now, I’m just going to copy/paste my notes that I wrote for myself regarding her last NIGHT.

“Interesting, ambiguous character. She doesn’t have any directly bad marks, in fact she has two good ones for pointing out Legate’s error but then voting for Legate as rep on no lynch platform. The problem is that her vs. Lottie circumstances reflects worse on her.”

Conclusion: I am *deeply* uncomfortable with her. Lottie’s suggestion regarding a potential plan exploiting McC seems a little chancy to want to risk for the wolves…but it would explain a lot to my mind. With the lack of a competing sick claim though, Nerwen’s claims cannot be discounted.
I can’t emphasize enough how uncomfortable on many, many fronts I am with her.

Nerwen vs. Lottie
Is it possible they are both baddies and have concocted some kind of scheme?

All that being said, I still think we should consider no lynch toDAY.

And I have taken so long to write this that I have no doubt that I have Xed with a host...or at least I hope I have.

Also, I hope I didn't forget anyone. If I am, I apologize. It took me like an hour and a half to make this post.

EDIT: As I suspected Xed with a ton - which, of course, included Shasta and Nerwen banter...slightly invalidating one of my points in here...oh well. I shall of course leave it A) because fair play and B) I think my point still has validity.

Inziladun

10-29-2016, 02:09 PM

Why? I think this certainly does not make any sense whatsoever. At least not at this point.

Because I see with Palantíric vision.

Actually, just because I can't think of anyone at the moment who I find more sketchy.

x/d with Lottie and Kuru

Kuruharan

10-29-2016, 02:23 PM

For that particular reason, speaking of that, I would not recommend Nerwen (or always the "sick" person anyway) to be selected for the Rep on this Day, just in case.

I haven't managed to catch up to all the posts I missed while posting earlier, but I had to pause and say a million times this.

Whatever else we decide to do toDAY, no Nerwen for rep toDAY!

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 02:26 PM

Be not bereaved, dear one, all is not yet lost! Is not the sky the bluest we've seen in weeks? Is not your own flowerbed responding to the sunlight - look there, how the colors dance! All will yet be well, if you just keep looking on the bright side.

(No, this isn't a bardic hint or anything like that. It's just... I mean, it's Nerwen. :( )

In other news, I apologize for my absence. I'm afraid I won't be around much today - Saturday is the busiest day of the week for me. As such, I'm going to vote for my representative fairly early, probably in the next hour or two. It's likely to be for Lottie or my moon and stars, given the obvious. I'll follow along as I can, though.
My priceless treasure...! You have almost rekindled the waning light of my spirit. Almost...:(

While I do think the wolves would be very eager to get away with a fake reveal, I also agree that at this point in the game the fake-reveal theory would be way over-complicated, and probably did not happen last Night. Especially because it would have been easier to just send in no name, which I hadn't thought of at first.

I initially suggested the fake-reveal theory at least in part because I felt that her despairing posts felt off. Her more recent, more serious posts have felt much more like the Nerwen I'm used to. I do think we should look at Zil's That struck me as jumping the gun by quite a lot. I hadn't even suggested lynching her - just taking a step back and considering the possibilities before we trusted her reveal completely.

Edit: xed with Shasta and Lalaith
Let's look at the most *likely* wolf strategy for toDay, hmmn? Isn't it going be "build suspicion against last Night's target"? I think it's quite possible a Zilwolf got a little too excited by your theory...

Very much agreed. I don't want to give the wolves free passes, and besides, throwing around suspicion never fails to liven up the discussion. I mean, look at toDay. ;) Seriously though, I agree we should start the lynch discussions earlier. The only problem as I see it is that with no lynch yesterDay and no kill last Night, we are virtually having another Day1 as far as evidence goes (and this situation will last, even though other kind of evidence will slowly keep gathering.)
Actually, if we decide to give the wild theorizing a rest- then yes, we did have a kill last Night. Me. Everyone need not accept my story 100% while I'm still alive, but at least we can examine it from that point of view.

I don't think I said anything particularly "gifted" sounding yesterDay, though.
Edit: accidentally quoted wrong person.
Edit: x'd since Lottie at #121.

Kuruharan

10-29-2016, 02:37 PM

Ok, now I've caught up.

I agree with the seemingly building consensus that Lottie should be Rep toNIGHT.

I also am tilting more toward supporting the idea of no lynch toNIGHT.

I know, I kind of want to roll my eyes at myself for saying it...so I will. :rolleyes:

Yes, there are dangers, and the possibility of a reduced evidence trail high on that list...but think of the upsides.

1) Keeping as many people as possible alive in the Ward, pushing us one DAY closer to the Ride of the Rohirrim (I don't think I've ever longed for their coming or sympathized with the plight of the Gondorians in Minas Tirith quite as much as I do now).

2) If Nerwen is telling the truth (a definite possibility) we will still have 9 inmates in here with us, outnumbering the wolves 2-1, and making it harder for them to vote as a block. We might have 10 still if McC should yet appear.

3) There seems to be great disagreement on a potential candidate for a lynch toDAY...and a resolution to the argument might not be forthcoming at any time in the near future.

Just food for thought, but please everyone think on it.

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 02:38 PM

Because I see with Palantíric vision.

Actually, just because I can't think of anyone at the moment who I find more sketchy.

x/d with Lottie and Kuru
Oh. Why am I "sketchy"?

I think you jumped on Lottie's suggestion veeery quickly...

Edit: x'd with Kuru.

Kuruharan

10-29-2016, 02:40 PM

Made a bit of a misstatement on point 2 above regarding items in favor of a no lynch.

2) If Nerwen is telling the truth and the Herbalist heals her...the rest reads the same as the original.

Edit: Xed with Nerwen

Things have livened up a bit. :)

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-29-2016, 02:43 PM

Because I see with Palantíric vision.

Actually, just because I can't think of anyone at the moment who I find more sketchy.
Well not exactly the explanation I was hoping for :rolleyes: But ok, fair enough about the subjective part - I understand if you find her the most suspicious, but objectively speaking, there is not much logic in lynching her if she is supposedly dying of Black Breath.

Anyway, just a quick list then, too, so that I can lead by example, resp. since Kuru already posted his, that I hopefully inspire others.

Green zone:
Lottie - sensible and all, plus most probably innocent, based on how things look.
Kuru - feels mostly okay. Is active and everything, there were a couple of times when I was like "but what if!!!", but there is no objective reason for me to suspect him.

Sub-green zone:
Nerwen - for the time being, I am okay with believing her. I understand the suspicions some are having and if there is anyone to pull off some awful thing, it would be her. But it makes no sense to lynch her now.

Yellow zone:

Lommy - generally having good points, or if not good, then at least being fairly contributive to the discussion and all. If nothing else, I am not afraid of her being a "quiet Wolf". So, not any priority lynch for the time being.

Lalaith - like with Zil, I just have sometimes these on-off vibes from her that I am not sure what I am dealing with. But generally nothing dramatic, I would like to get more reading on her.

Shasta - I don't see the points Kuru brings against him as very much valid. His vote was x-ed with all the other votes, so in that sense, it is just as well. As a note, I disagree with his lobbying to send in Nerwen toDay (and like I said, we probably should not do that - not yet, just in case, also while we have probably a better choice on our hands). If I believed any Nerwen-conspiration theory, then he would fall right in (lobbying for a packmate to be elected, if they already made such an effort to pretend she was about to die).

Orange zone (undecided and if it came to lynching, not opposed to any of the below, of course with some more, some less):

Inziladun - what I said above. Confusing, most of all (the same with his last one-liner of an answer to me about Nerwen. I mean, that's all good and well, but who are you? xyzzy?)

Boro - okay, first of all, where is the active Boro? Secondly, what kind of a behavior it is if you are being inactive and when you post, it is to ask one question of two players who said who they wanted to lynch the Day before?

...but as you can see, it is mostly about not having a reading on those, or rather not getting what they are up to.

Zero zone:
McCaber - it would be nice if he showed up.

If I had to name our Wolves now, I would say Shasta, Boro, and somebody. But that would also mean a very quiet pack.

In any case, I am up for electing Lottie toDay, not Nerwen. Let's give Nerwen a "probatory time", especially since she's been the source of some controversion; I see no reason to elect her on top of everything.

EDIT: x-ed with all the Kurus and Nerwens after Zil's post

Inziladun

10-29-2016, 02:44 PM

Oh. Why am I "sketchy"?

I think you jumped on Lottie's suggestion veeery quickly...

Ah, dueling suspicions. Nice. ;)

I never said you were a super-odd-evil-Conspirator, but if I had to pick one for a lynch it's be you.

x/d with Kuru and Legate

Inziladun

10-29-2016, 02:52 PM

Inziladun - what I said above. Confusing, most of all (the same with his last one-liner of an answer to me about Nerwen. I mean, that's all good and well, but who are you? xyzzy?)

Well, I think the xyzzy era preceded my WW involvement. Anyway, I'm afraid I'm just not very analytical at the moment. Being at work doesn't help.

I guess I'd be on board with Lottie-rep. I can't think of a better candidate.

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 02:59 PM

Nerwen

Ahh…yes…well…

I had the distinct impression yesterDAY that she was trying to signal that she had the Black Breath. I might have been off, but I had that impression. That does not make her look good to my mind toDAY.
Meaning my early Day One banter? Well you see, at the time I assumed victims were allowed to reveal outright- which they are, so actually it would be better to say I failed to guess that other players would assume they weren't. The point is that it didn't occur to me that it would be taken as a "hint".
Conclusion: I am *deeply* uncomfortable with her. Lottie’s suggestion regarding a potential plan exploiting McC seems a little chancy to want to risk for the wolves…but it would explain a lot to my mind. With the lack of a competing sick claim though, Nerwen’s claims cannot be discounted.
I can’t emphasize enough how uncomfortable on many, many fronts I am with her.
Hmmn. Lottie's theory on McCaber makes so little sense to my mind that I am myself rather "uncomfortable" with anyone who thinks it does. This is not really personal... it's just that a logical inference from the game dynamic is that, having targeted me last Night, the baddies will be trying hard to discredit me toDay... so when I see people doing what seems to me like clutching at straws, well it makes me wonder, even about you, who have otherwise seemed pretty innocent.

Also-
Nerwen vs. Lottie
Is it possible they are both baddies and have concocted some kind of scheme?
Come on, how could that work?

Edit: x'd since last post.
Edit2: typo

Kuruharan

10-29-2016, 03:07 PM

Come on, how could that work?

Would you be understanding if I said I didn't want to explain?

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 03:11 PM

Ah, dueling suspicions. Nice. ;)

I never said you were a super-odd-evil-Conspirator, but if I had to pick one for a lynch it's be you.

x/d with Kuru and Legate
Except that under the present circumstances it would make absolutely no sense to lynch me toDay.

You know what would make sense? One or more wolves pushing the notion that I am a Very Suspicious Character, on whom no healing should be wasted toNight. It's such an obvious strategy that I'd have been quite surprised if no one had tried it.

Edit: x'd with Kuru.
Edit 2: word left out.

Lalaith

10-29-2016, 03:22 PM

Right, I'm going to vote for rep now to avoid any risk of modfire.
++Loslote for rep please.

I don't have any strong feelings about a lynching candidate. I'm not feeling the Nerwen suspicion myself. If things get more interesting/revealing later on, it will be past my bedtime :(
However, barring any major excitements - if McCaber hasn't turned up maybe vote for him as he'll be modfired anyway?

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 03:22 PM

Would you be understanding if I said I didn't want to explain?
I'm not sure, actually. I get that you might be afraid of helping the evil side by doing so.

And look, I'm not getting any particular bad vibes from you, Kuru... it's just, well, what I said about the wolves' likely strategy of trying to discredit targets means I don't think I can just let this go.

Can I put it this way: do you truly, honestly have a theory that would account for two false claims and no counterclaims? You don't have to explain it, just "yes" or "no".

Edit: x'd with Lalaith.

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 03:26 PM

I'll follow suit
++Lottie for rep.

Thinlómien

10-29-2016, 03:28 PM

Okay, let's get a least one ball rolling.

++Lottie for representative

As for the suspicions, then, I think making a list will help me sort my thoughts out:

Nerwen - there's something a little off about her and if there's a wolvish scheme going on right now I'd bet she's involved. I find it puzzling that she's made black breath hints on both Days, even though her explanation for her behaviour yesterDay kinda makes sense. Mostly I'm just really confused as for what on earth she'd be trying to achieve as a wolf, but I'm not discounting the option she's thought things through more than I have.

Kuru - I keep flip-flopping on him. Some of the things he says sound pretty shady, sometimes he sounds very honest and, un-scheming? Definitely not a lynch priority in my mind however.

McCaber - would be nice if he appeared, but I'm getting a little pessimistic here.

Lottie - I think she's innocent.

Lalaith - hard to read, quiet and friendly. Could be anything, but would a wolf really be so confused about the rules? (Okay, we all are a bit confused about them, but she seems more than most.)

Legate - looks like innocent Legate to me so far, and I like his keeping the discussion alive and rolling.

Dun - probably on the top of my suspicion list. I am well aware I might just be jumping on a bandwgon here, but he is the one who sort of stands out as fishy. There's just something wrong about the way he questions people and their points in a kind of happily polite manner. Like, if we had a cobbler in the village, I'd be pointing fingers at him. It sort of feels like he's trying to sidetrack the discussion. (Or maybe he's just taking part and we have different priorities. :D But he just rubs me the wrong way.)

Boro - very quiet, appears with a ninja question about Inzil, then disappears again. Very weird. Definitely keeping an eye on him.

Shasta - so far seems like basic Shasta, slightly lurkery, loud when he gets in the mood, sharp and a little angry. (Sorry my friend. :D) Not on the top of my suspicion list, but he's fooled me before.

I'll be off now for a while, then come back to mock vote. I hope everyone else will mock vote too.

edit: xed with Nerwens and Lalaiths

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 03:28 PM

Lalaith, we don't actually have to lynch anyone.
Edit: x'd with Lommy.

Kuruharan

10-29-2016, 03:38 PM

Right, I'm going to vote for rep now to avoid any risk of modfire.
++Loslote for rep please.

Thank you, Lalaith for voting. I was beginning to worry you had fallen asleep on us.

Can I put it this way: do you truly, honestly have a theory that would account for two false claims and no counterclaims? You don't have to explain it, just "yes" or "no".

Yes.

How about this:

"O Great and Wise 'erbalist, we thy 'umble charges express our great gratitude to thee for last NIGHT's good work. I, Kuruharan, son of Khoreth of Durin's Folk do 'umbly beseech thee to 'eal Nerwen of the Folk of Oz of whatever foul disease 'ath smote 'er. Unless, of course, McCaber the Absent happens to appear and claim to be sick.

I do beseech this with 'and on 'eart and in all sincerity in spite of my funny accent, which just seemed too amusing not to adopt.

Unless, of course, being Great and Wise you 'ave a better idea."

And I mean every word of it...which will hopefully further set Lottie's mind at rest about me too.

Now...on the subject of Lottie I would happily vote for her right now...except I would really like some idea of what she will vote for because there are some potential lynch victims I will absolutely not support.

And I'd prefer not to lynch anybody today.

Xed with some additional votes

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 03:40 PM

One thing I agree with Lommy about is the mock-lynches:

So:

++Zil for the lynch.

Though it might be better to refrain altogether.

Edit: x'd with Kuru.

Inziladun

10-29-2016, 03:46 PM

Oh. Why am I "sketchy"?

I think you jumped on Lottie's suggestion veeery quickly...

I'll follow suit
++Lottie for rep.

Ah. I say I agree with Lottie about you, which you see as suspicious, then you vote her for rep, and put me up for a mock lynch.

Who's railroading who now? :rolleyes:

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 04:00 PM

Okay, that makes me feel better about you, Kuru.

I'd like to say again, though, that there is a real possibility that the Herbalist is very short of supplies and will need to sacrifice some people. Thus, I am certainly not counting on being saved.

However, the main thing is that if I die I will be a known innocent toMorrow; if I live a 99% likely one. Either way, I hope the village will take a good hard look at the people who climbed on Lottie's far-fetched theory toDay, especially the ones bolstering it by muttering vaguely about how I'm "fishy" or "sketchy". (Kuru gets a bit of a pass for having actually had a concrete reason, though I think I've explained that adequately.)

Edit:x'd with Zil.

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 04:12 PM

I am not really telling Lottie how to vote, Zil- it sounds as if she will go for the no-lynch option, which as I said might be best at this point. What I am doing is making my preference clear. See, the difference is that I have some rather definite and well-reasoned, non-opportunistic suspicions of you, which I have set out (I believe) clearly and logically. It is not just a case of "OMGUS".

Loslote

10-29-2016, 04:34 PM

I would probably go for a non-lynch at present, because while I think we've had a lot of friction this afterNoon which has brought a lot of interesting points to light, I don't think they have led to a generally agreed upon candidate. Unless matters change, I think last Night's Herbalist save has bought the village more time, and I think avoiding over hasty lynches really does need to be avoided in this game.

That being said, Zil has seemed...off balance all game. I don't necessarily know if that seems wolvish - if I recall correctly, he tends towards being overly smooth as a wolf, doesn't he? Off balance isn't something I'm used to seeing from him, and I'm not sure how to read it. I wouldn't lynch him toDay, but I would keep an eye on him in future.

Lommy has also struck me as a little bit more go-with-the-flow than I think I remember from her, but again, not enough for concrete suspicion at this point.

I'm inclined to trust Legate and Kuru, but I almost feel like they are too good to be true right now - active, helpful, making good points, and I agree with most of what they're saying? Gotta be wolves. :D Seriously, though, I don't suspect them even a little, and I find myself having to remind myself not to trust them too far.

Boro, Shasta, and Lalaith are all total toss ups at this point, which is concerning, since Lalaith at least has been posting. I'm wary about how under the radar she's flying, and I want to take a closer look at her later.

Nerwen looks better to me now - I think her early posts pinged my radar just because they were so overdramatic, which apparently is necessary, since not everyone was 100% clear on my reveal yesterDay, even though I thought it was very clear myself. :rolleyes: I would definitely not lynch her.

tldr: I would consider Zil or Lalaith if I see some sort of conclusive evidence against them, but if nothing new comes up, I would probably not lynch anyone toDay to keep the village's numbers up and Gifteds safe.

Inziladun

10-29-2016, 04:41 PM

In case something comes up:

++Lottie

Kuruharan

10-29-2016, 04:43 PM

tldr: I would consider Zil or Lalaith if I see some sort of conclusive evidence against them, but if nothing new comes up, I would probably not lynch anyone toDay to keep the village's numbers up and Gifteds safe.

That's good enough for me.

Time for me to put my money where my mouth is.

++Loslote for Representative on a platform of No-Lynch on DAY 2.

(Be honest, how many of you are sitting there hitting the refresh key waiting for somebody to say something. I know I am. :cool:)

Shastanis Althreduin

10-29-2016, 04:53 PM

++Lottie 4 rep

I promise to be more active tomorrow (whether I'm sick or not).

Thinlómien

10-29-2016, 04:57 PM

I don't have much to add currently. Kuru is acting a little strange.

++Zil

...yeah, I'm actually glad I don't have to stand behind this vote like in a normal game. I mean, he *is* fishy, but hardly in a way that would merit voting him twice in a row. Then again, no one else seems as fishy to me, so there we go.

I would still be in favour of a lynch toDay. Both because I like lynching people (sorry :p) and just sitting around doesn't make for a very meaningful game for anyone who doesn't have a special role. Also, it does stir up the dicussion and give us more evidence.

edit: xed with Shazzy

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-29-2016, 05:02 PM

Okay, for the sake of clarity then

++Lottie for the rep.

And if I had to vote, I might again vote

++Zil for lynch - purely theoretically;

because as it stands, I am still inclined that we should not have a lynch toDay. So it is with this that I am giving my Rep vote to Lottie.

Let me just say this one thing: if the team of Wolves is something like Kuru, Nerwen and Lottie, they are playing the village brilliantly and we are probably all dead (but if that were the case, it would be deserved to be sure).

Loslote

10-29-2016, 05:03 PM

I would still be in favour of a lynch toDay. Both because I like lynching people (sorry :p) and just sitting around doesn't make for a very meaningful game for anyone who doesn't have a special role. Also, it does stir up the dicussion and give us more evidence.

I mean, it doesn't, though. Roles are not revealed upon death, so don't learn anything. In this game, killing people doesn't give you anything, it just makes them dead. So unless we have a very good reason to suspect someone is a wolf, a lynch is just an unnecessary risk.

Loslote

10-29-2016, 05:06 PM

The consensus seems to be ++no lynch today. If I'm reading the vibe totally wrong, now is the time to let me know! ;)

Nerwen

10-29-2016, 05:45 PM

satansaloser2005

10-29-2016, 06:26 PM

As on the day before, indecision ran rampant around the Ward.

Lommy spoke up, urging the others to action. "It's time to put this to a vote, don't you think?"

"This is a democracy!" agreed Lottie.

Sally's head popped out from a nearby window. "I'm sorry, what country do you think I live in?" :smokin:

Despite the delicious sarcasm, Lottie's cheeriness seemed infectious, and in no time, she had been decided as the gate visitor for the day.

"Hey," Lottie said suddenly. "Where's McCaber?"

Everyone looked around, but McCaber was nowhere to be found. Night was coming, and it was time for all to turn in. After wishing Lottie luck and wisdom, the rest of the Ward turned in for the night, leaving Lottie to approach the guards and give a report.

A light shone weakly from the windows of one of the houses. Lottie hesitantly crept up to the sill and looked in. "McCaber?" she whispered, but there was no response, though she could clearly see the book he had been reading sitting on the table. She knocked on the door and waited for several moments, but still she received no answer. After a time, she silently walked away, resolving to bring up his absence to the guards.

McCaber was never seen again.

Patients
Nerwen
Kuru
Lottie
Lalaith
Lommy
Legate
Dun
Boro
Shasta

The Morgue
Phantom (for posterity)
McCaber

My apologies for the delay. The Day is now closed. Lottie is the rep for toNight.

satansaloser2005

10-30-2016, 06:03 PM

The morning came silently, with most sleeping in. Only Sally awoke early, a certain feeling of unease pulling her from her bed much earlier than she liked.

Every house was peaceful and in order, except that of Nerwen, whose door was partway open, her flowers uprooted and scattered across the lawn.

"Nerwen?" Sally called when a few knocks returned no response. "Nerwen, it's just me. Is everything all right?" Finally Sally nudged the door the rest of the way open, revealing a blanket-clad Nerwen curled up in the corner by the fireplace.

Flowers were clutched in her hand, the blooms near her face as if she had just been smelling them. Beside her body was a small bag, the sleeve of one of her shirts hanging out of the edge. When Sally knelt at her side, she found a roughly scrawled note in what was clearly Nerwen's handwriting.

"WOE IS MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!" the note read in over-sized letters. Below that, the writing continued. "I wish I could stay. I'm sorry."

Sally covered Nerwen with a spare blanket, reluctantly leaving her home and locking the door before going to report her passing to the group. As she approached the center of the Ward, she thought back to Nerwen's packed bag. Perhaps, just this once, a lie would be easier than the truth.

Patients
Kuru
Lottie
Lalaith
Lommy
Legate
Dun
Boro
Shasta

The Morgue
Phantom (for posterity)
McCaber
Nerwen

It is now Day 3.

Kuruharan

10-30-2016, 06:20 PM

Well, that's interesting.

Apparently our Herbalist didn't think Nerwen trustworthy enough to save or perhaps has fewer abilities to save than we thought and believed it necessary to save some for later. That second one is not good...especially for me since I was hit with the Black Breath last NIGHT.

We probably need to assume the worst case scenario and assume that McCaber was an ordo. Now Nerwen is confirmed as having been one. I don't think I will be able to do a numbers post tonight (I will tomorrow, which is still part of toNIGHT ;)) but we may have reached a point where we are going to have to try some lynches. Something I did not want to say before now is that lynches are not just a tool of the village, they are also a tool of the wolves and we are now in a precarious position. If we do lynch toDAY we need to do it right.

The question I think we should start off asking ourselves is why did the wolves target Lottie and Nerwen first? Are the wolves people who would feel particularly threatened by them in some way?

Inziladun

10-30-2016, 07:12 PM

Well, so much for suspicions. :o

Apparently our Herbalist didn't think Nerwen trustworthy enough to save or perhaps has fewer abilities to save than we thought and believed it necessary to save some for later. That second one is not good...especially for me since I was hit with the Black Breath last NIGHT.

What do you mean by the second option? We know the Herbalist has a limited supply of herbs.

We probably need to assume the worst case scenario and assume that McCaber was an ordo.

I agree that the assumption should be Cab was innocent. It doesn't really matter anyway, as the focus should still ferreting out the Conspirators.

Something I did not want to say before now is that lynches are not just a tool of the village, they are also a tool of the wolves and we are now in a precarious position. If we do lynch toDAY we need to do it right.

I think a lynch needs to happen at this point. The odds are at least better now of striking evil.

This statement has a bit of an Captain Obvious air though, like evil trying to look nice and helpful.

The question I think we should start off asking ourselves is why did the wolves target Lottie and Nerwen first? Are the wolves people who would feel particularly threatened by them in some way?

Maybe Nerwen gave off Gifted vibes? That's the only reason I can come up with.

Kuruharan

10-30-2016, 07:52 PM

What do you mean by the second option? We know the Herbalist has a limited supply of herbs.

I meant that the number of Herbalist saves might be limited to as few as three or four. They might also be lost when used regardless of if the target was genuinely afflicted or not.

Loslote

10-30-2016, 08:25 PM

I meant that the number of Herbalist saves might be limited to as few as three or four. They might also be lost when used regardless of if the target was genuinely afflicted or not.

I would even go lower - I wouldn't be surprised if the Herbalist only had two or three. With only five Nights to survive, three or four saves would make it too easy. I would guess the Herbalist has only one or two saves left.

I want to take a look at Zil, Lommy, and maybe Lalaith toDay, but I might not end up having a lot of time to really dig in. I should be around, though.

Shastanis Althreduin

10-30-2016, 09:50 PM

I don't think the Herbalist has any saves left. There wasn't any reason not to save Nerwen last night, based on the stall factor alone.

More to come when I'm not on mobile.

Inziladun

10-31-2016, 05:37 AM

Well, if the Herbalist is at the end of the herbs, it's down to Bard to save.

In light of that distinct possibility, I still think lynching should start now.
If there's no counter to Kuru's Breath claim, there are obviously better picks than he.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-31-2016, 05:59 AM

We probably need to assume the worst case scenario and assume that McCaber was an ordo.
That should be the basic approach.

Now Nerwen is confirmed as having been one. I don't think I will be able to do a numbers post tonight (I will tomorrow, which is still part of toNIGHT ;)) but we may have reached a point where we are going to have to try some lynches. Something I did not want to say before now is that lynches are not just a tool of the village, they are also a tool of the wolves and we are now in a precarious position. If we do lynch toDAY we need to do it right.
Indeed, that is the biggest problem I see here. It would probably still be possible to wait things out if we still have the Gifteds around (I think at least we could rule out the possibility of Nerwen being the Herbalist, since the rules say "they are allowed to treat themselves" - unless she had only one power to use, but really, I don't believe the role would be that useless. Same thing also goes for Cab, unless Lottie has been a Wolf all along, because somebody had to heal her). There are eight of us, so probably three Wolves and five innocents. If we lynch well, it will go much better, if not, then so much worse, of course. But I think in any case, it's about time we started trying to make sense of who might be a Wolf.

That's why, incidentally, I think people should say whom they would like to see lynched as soon as possible (can of course change later. But maybe we should agree on a pre-deadline for that kind of voting, say ten hours from now, so that a Rep can be chosen afterwards? Or, of course, if we choose a trustworthy Rep early enough - I would not be opposed to choosing Lottie again, btw - and if that Rep then promises to pass on the vote of the majority, it would work as well? And maybe that would even be better?).

The question I think we should start off asking ourselves is why did the wolves target Lottie and Nerwen first? Are the wolves people who would feel particularly threatened by them in some way?
I think that should be the thing to do now, because that is literally the only evidence we have about how the Wolves might think. With Lottie however, I think the selection would be rather arbitrary - given that it had to happen on Night 1, i.e. before the game even started. I would assume they'd simply pick someone whom they thought was not likely to be protected by the Bard, i.e. not too "obvious" target, but also not too "unobvious"... I think Lottie fits the bill.

I think a lynch needs to happen at this point. The odds are at least better now of striking evil.
Just as a remark, I am uncomfortable with that rhetoric. "Must" and "evil" sound very zealous, which would be a nice guise for a WW.

This statement has a bit of an Captain Obvious air though, like evil trying to look nice and helpful.
I was actually thinking the same. However, I am thinking also another thing - that Inzil seems to be very happy now that Nerwen, whom he suspected yesterDay, died, to start immediately quite aggressively question Kuru.

Maybe Nerwen gave off Gifted vibes? That's the only reason I can come up with.
I guess that would be the main thing the WWs would go after. But the question would be, what kind of vibes? I must say it crossed my mind yesterDay morning that she might be Gifted since she shouted "woe is me, we will ALL die" as opposed to something that would concern only herself, but that was after she had already been targeted, so that would not qualify as a reason for the WWs. And apparently (or hopefully) that was misinterpretation anyway.
Also, the thing about this game is that if somebody gave too obvious vibes, they would likely not be targeted because the WWs would have a good reason to assume the Bard might notice as well and they might be protected. Nonetheless, there would probably be reasons why her and not somebody else.

...ok, I actually wanted to look through her posts later, but now did it even before finishing this post, so: the general feel from Nerwen's Day 1 posts is that she probably just looked innocent and helpful. Because she really does not say very much most of the time, and most of all, she is not really in a conflict with anybody. So that does not really seem like there would be traces to anyone, positive or negative, before the WWs picked her. Afterwards, the Day 2 is of course more dynamic, but that is a completely different cup of tea.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil

Inziladun

10-31-2016, 06:21 AM

I think people should say whom they would like to see lynched as soon as possible (can of course change later. But maybe we should agree on a pre-deadline for that kind of voting, say ten hours from now, so that a Rep can be chosen afterwards? Or, of course, if we choose a trustworthy Rep early enough - I would not be opposed to choosing Lottie again, btw - and if that Rep then promises to pass on the vote of the majority, it would work as well? And maybe that would even be better?).

I would go with Lottie again as rep.

As for lynch choices, I would say no for Legate and Kuru (unless his Breath claim is challenged).

Based on that, and the fact that it's hard to see Lalaith as a Conspirator, I would put the lynch for Boro, Lommy, or Shasta in that order.

Just as a remark, I am uncomfortable with that rhetoric. "Must" and "evil" sound very zealous, which would be a nice guise for a WW.

I had a reason for putting it that way. For the moment I'm leaving it at that.

I was actually thinking the same. However, I am thinking also another thing - that Inzil seems to be very happy now that Nerwen, whom he suspected yesterDay, died, to start immediately quite aggressively question Kuru.

I was disappointed that the only one I had any strong negative feel for wasn't evil. Aside from that, crowing over her demise would have been recklessly stupid were I a Conspirator.

Kuruharan

10-31-2016, 07:14 AM

I don't think the Herbalist has any saves left.

Just a quick chime in before I go to work but I don't think this can be correct.

This is only DAY THREE. We've had one confirmed save. The way the rules read it strongly implies that the Herbalist has multiple saves. Now Sally could be yanking our chain in some way, but that seems an odd way to do it. That's the sort of thing people might be angry about after the game rather than thinking is a good joke and I don't think Sally would do something like that.

I would also like to note that this is exactly the sort of post that is bugging me about Shasta this game. Almost everything he says seems to have an unduly pessimistic slant.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-31-2016, 08:45 AM

Based on that, and the fact that it's hard to see Lalaith as a Conspirator
This just caught my eye, care to share why you think so?

I would put the lynch for Boro, Lommy, or Shasta in that order.
Actually, whereas I have my uneasiness about Inzil, there is something to this as well. For example in regards to Boro, I have had similar vibes from him, and at least Inzil is talking and contributive and all. Whereas Boro is just sitting somewhere and not speaking at all. Also as a general thought, I would not be surprised to have at least a couple silent WWs (although I still think at least in the previous few Days, the village's plan of seemingly not lynching and just waiting it out would rather have forced them out to be active, methinks. That is, if I go back, also the reason why I am partly suspicious of Inzil being rather vocal on lynching. On the other hand, pushing a lynch would really make sense for the WWs only in case they weren't threatened (!) - important note).

I was disappointed that the only one I had any strong negative feel for wasn't evil.
Understood. I can imagine that; having experienced similar situation in many games.

I would also like to note that this is exactly the sort of post that is bugging me about Shasta this game. Almost everything he says seems to have an unduly pessimistic slant.

Well, I think there is a certain generic approach Shasta has like this, almost always. Speaking of generic approaches however, where his proverbial psychic powers are in this game?

Kuruharan

10-31-2016, 08:58 AM

Here is the latest run of numbers on a no-lynch scenario, discounting any saves.

DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen

DAY FOUR
Player 4
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3

DAY FIVE
Player 5
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4

DAY SIX
Player 6
Player 7
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5

Now, my belief is we still have a few saves left in the can...at least I sure hope so. :D

That being said, I think we have reached the point where serious consideration has to be given to lynching.

I also want to say right now that I think Legate or Lottie are the only viable choices for Representative toDAY.

Player analysis post to come.

Kuruharan

10-31-2016, 09:59 AM

Welp...here goes.

KNOWN/LIKELY INNOCENT
Kuru
Legate
Lottie

UNKNOWN
Boro
Inzil
Lalaith
Lommy
Shasta

Somewhere amongst those bottom five I am convinced we have our three wolves.

Boro
I don’t know what to make of Boro. His play in this game has been noticeably odd. He has been so noticeably odd, in fact, that it tends to make me think he is innocent. I would think a wolf, even a highly distracted and busy one, would make more of an effort to appear more normal and helpful.

CONCLUSION FOR THE MOMENT: He is in danger of modfire if he doesn’t vote toDAY. I don’t think he should be a lynch priority.

Inzil
Inzil continues to rub me the wrong way while at the same time doing and saying some helpful things. He is, quite possibly, the most enigmatic player in the game right now. I could easily see him as a wolf but I can also easily see him as an ordo.

CONCLUSION FOR THE MOMENT: He might be a good lynch target…but for the time being I’d really rather not…and I will get to why in a minute.

Lalaith
DAY TWO she was still giving the impression of being helpful…without actually being helpful. While she seems ordoish my spidey-sense is going crazy about her. She always seems to me to be the sort of player whose level of seeming harmlessness and level of actual dangerousness share the exact same progression.

She got a negative strike in my book yesterDAY for suggesting we lynch McCaber because he might be modfired.

CONCLUSION: She might be a wolf. Not sure she’s the best lynch target, but she definitely might be a wolf.

Lommy
I don’t feel as good about Lommy after yesterDAY. She seems a bit too wishy-washy and trying to go with the flow for my mental comfort.

In Post 105 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705587&postcount=105)she says she wants more suspicions going around…which superficially seems like a good thing, except suspicions flying around is exactly the circumstance needed by wolves for them to manipulate lynches and at the time the Ward was trying to not lynch people.

In Post 138 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705620&postcount=138)she defends Lalaith a bit more strenuously than necessary to my mind. This post and Lalaith’s general behavior are two things that make me uncomfortable about Lalaith and consequently about Lommy. And I am also uncomfortable with her analysis of Shasta but I can’t really put much of a finger on it other than it just sounds like wolf defending wolf to me.

She’s also a bit crosswise with Inzil. And this is why I’m unsure about suggesting Inzil as a lynch target. Is it the sort of squabbling that suggests they are unlikely pack mates or is it the sort of squabbling that suggests they are trying to fan the public flames of rivalry too keep the heat off one or the other of them? She seems to have gone after Inzil more than Inzil has gone after her.

In this game format, is there any benefit to this sort of public wolf on wolf? I really don’t think so…but I might be wrong.

So, given that I feel worse about Lommy this makes me feel better about Inzil. But I could be totally wrong and they could be in it together.

However, I think the odds are one or the other of them has to be bad. I have a hard time believing that both of these 2 are our 2 remaining Innocents in the 5 Unknowns.

CONCLUSION: Unsure. Could well be a wolf…but might not be.

Shasta
I have a feeling that my opinions on this are going to be controversial.

On DAY ONE his first substantive post was about suppressing information.

Also on DAY ONE He defended Inzil, which could potentially be suspicious.

YesterDAY he was substantively absent.

ToDAY he starts off with a post that I think is far too pessimistic for the situation and seems designed to encourage defeatism.

Now for the controversial part…I think the attack on Nerwen points at him. Nerwen was not particularly forward in discussing plans or ideas on DAY ONE and yet she was the first person struck after the game got underway. That’s been bothering me. Why was that? Nerwen herself seemed puzzled by it.

They have a lot of familiarity with each other and if anybody would be able to smoke him out quickly if he was bad it would be her. Shasta might have feared this and persuaded his packmates that Nerwen had to be the priority to eliminate. Also, his relative absence while Nerwen was still in the game makes me uneasy about him on this point.

CONCLUSION: I might be completely off base on this one. I admit that, and am certainly open to discussion and persuasion on this, but out of all the players in the game right now, I feel worst about him.

Inziladun

10-31-2016, 10:07 AM

This just caught my eye, care to share why you think so?

I guess it's just that she hasn't been very involved. That could also be said for the ones I said I would consider for a lynch.

Loslote

10-31-2016, 10:08 AM

First off, I regret to inform you that I will be even less available than I had hoped toDay. It turns out tonight is going to be the only clear night all week, so I have to run an observing session for the class I'm TAing - which means I will have to leave an hour before DL, and won't have as much time in between classes as I thought I might. :(

Since I don't know how much I'll be on, I will say that I do think we need to start lynching - the numbers for the passive scenario are no longer in our favor, so we need to start making moves. If I had to vote for someone to lynch toDay, I would say ++Lommy. I don't think Boro is playing very wolf-like - he's playing a lot quieter than usual, that's for sure, but when he's a wolf, I'm pretty sure he tends to be a louder, more aggressive wolf, not a quieter one. I wouldn't go for a lynch on him just based on him being quiet so far. Similarly with Shasta - I just don't think we have enough on him yet, and what I have seen doesn't strike me as being too far off the norm for him.

Lalaith and Zil I am concerned about, but I think my suspicion of Lommy is the more concrete of the three. Her tone in general has felt like she's trying to play it cool and like she always does, and she's been jumping on suspicions (like my Nerwen idea) too readily. I would go for her if I had to choose right now.

I would be happy with Legate or maybe even Kuru for rep toDay. I see no reason thus far to distrust Kuru's claim, and Legate has seemed trustworthy all game - and I trust that both of them will not deviate very far from the will of the people. ;)

Edit: xed with Kuru and Zil

Loslote

10-31-2016, 10:17 AM

I agree with Kuru that a Lommy-Lalaith pack would make a lot of sense, with how they've interacted and how they've almost played around each other, avoiding stepping on each other's toes. I don't know that Lommy and Zil are likely packmates - they both jumped on my Nerwen idea, and I think were the two loudest supporters of it, and I think if they were packmates they would have tried to split their forces rather than throwing all of their wolves into the same basket. That would leave either Shasta or Boro as the third packmate, and I am inclined to say it would be Shasta, since I don't think a Borowolf would be playing as quietly as he has been thus far.

(Also I keep imaging what would happen if Kuru and Legate were wolves, and it remains a horrifying thought. :eek: If you two are wolves, massive kudos, guys. :rolleyes:)

Kuruharan

10-31-2016, 10:20 AM

(Also I keep imaging what would happen if Kuru and Legate were wolves, and it remains a horrifying thought. :eek: If you two are wolves, massive kudos, guys. :rolleyes:)

Right back at you. If you and Legate are wolves I will take my hat off to both of you any day of the week.

Kuruharan

10-31-2016, 10:27 AM

I would be happy with Legate or maybe even Kuru for rep toDay. I see no reason thus far to distrust Kuru's claim, and Legate has seemed trustworthy all game - and I trust that both of them will not deviate very far from the will of the people. ;)

I would also like to remove my name from consideration for Rep toDAY.

I have been smote by foul humors and the last thing we need is for somebody to counter-claim and then have a huge mess with that and having my name in the mix for Rep at the same time.

Loslote

10-31-2016, 10:33 AM

I would also like to remove my name from consideration for Rep toDAY.

I have been smote by foul humors and the last thing we need is for somebody to counter-claim and then have a huge mess with that and having my name in the mix for Rep at the same time.

Yeah, that's why I said "maybe even" - I'm more than happy to trust your claim right now, but not everyone's checked in yet. Also, the wolves could have not sent in a kill last Night - we have no narration to say otherwise - so unless you die/are saved, it's always possible that you are lying. However, you were pretty trusted before you claimed to be Stricken, so you wouldn't really gain anything from lying, so I'm pretty sure you're telling the truth.

Inziladun

10-31-2016, 10:38 AM

Also, the wolves could have not sent in a kill last Night - we have no narration to say otherwise -

If no Breath was attempted, I can only see that as an error, rather than a deliberate act. What motive would there be to hold off?

Loslote

10-31-2016, 10:45 AM

If no Breath was attempted, I can only see that as an error, rather than a deliberate act. What motive would there be to hold off?

If no one was afflicted by the Black Breath, a wolf can claim that they were afflicted, and there will be no counter claim. The next day, they can say that the Herbalist must have saved them, and so long as the narration doesn't contradict that, there is no reason not to believe them - and we would think they were a known innocent. I don't think this is the case with Kuru, since he was pretty trusted yesterDay, so there would be no reason for him to try to cement his status as an innocent by pretending to be afflicted. Therefore, I am pretty confident that he's telling the truth about his brush with the Black Breath.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-31-2016, 10:59 AM

I guess it's just that she hasn't been very involved. That could also be said for the ones I said I would consider for a lynch.
Wait, now that confuses me - because you said you can't see her as Conspirator, but it is because of reasons which, in case of others, don't cause the same conclusion? ??
First off, I regret to inform you that I will be even less available than I had hoped toDay. It turns out tonight is going to be the only clear night all week, so I have to run an observing session for the class I'm TAing - which means I will have to leave an hour before DL, and won't have as much time in between classes as I thought I might. :(
But you will be able to send in a lynch vote during the Night, if we elect you so?

Since I don't know how much I'll be on, I will say that I do think we need to start lynching - the numbers for the passive scenario are no longer in our favor,
Basically agreed, but just a remark with looking at Kuru's numbers - if we still get at least one more save (and have living Gifteds, of course), it is still possible for us to win by the numbers (since if the numbers are equal, the village still wins). I don't however mind lynching toDay. We should, like Nerwen had said, review on Day-to-Day basis.

The problem might be if, like Kuru said, Boro is really at risk of being modfired. That is something we don't really need at all. But we shall see. There are still several Days ahead of us.

I would be okay with the lynch being either of those names that have been brought up - Lalaith, on review, really strikes me as a possibility of a quiet Wolf. Zil concerns me, but like I said earlier, at least he is active. About Lommy it is hard to say. I would not dramatically object to it, because it is a possibility. Maybe I would prefer others. In any case I would hope to see her and Lal (and others, like Boro and Shasta) to post soon.

I would also like to remove my name from consideration for Rep toDAY.

I have been smote by foul humors and the last thing we need is for somebody to counter-claim and then have a huge mess with that and having my name in the mix for Rep at the same time.

Reasonable point, even though I don't think it very likely. (Btw if this is all a scheme to gain our trust, what a scheme.)

EDIT: x-ed after Kuru's post

Loslote

10-31-2016, 11:14 AM

But you will be able to send in a lynch vote during the Night, if we elect you so?

Yes, I just won't be around *at* the deadline.

I would be okay with the lynch being either of those names that have been brought up - Lalaith, on review, really strikes me as a possibility of a quiet Wolf. Zil concerns me, but like I said earlier, at least he is active. About Lommy it is hard to say. I would not dramatically object to it, because it is a possibility. Maybe I would prefer others. In any case I would hope to see her and Lal (and others, like Boro and Shasta) to post soon.

I would be okay with Lalaith, if that's what people agree on. I would prefer Lommy, but I find it highly likely that they are packmates, so I think we probably will end up needing to lynch both eventually.

Kuruharan

10-31-2016, 11:16 AM

I would like to ask everyone, if at all possible, to post a player analysis some time in the near future and not wait until the tail end of the DAY to do so...or fail to do player analysis at all.

We know there are Innocents in the Unknown column so please be helpful and share your thoughts. If we lynch toDAY we need to do our best to make sure we get it right.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but for the Unknown Innocents it is in your own self-interest to do so.

Inziladun

10-31-2016, 11:30 AM

Wait, now that confuses me - because you said you can't see her as Conspirator, but it is because of reasons which, in case of others, don't cause the same conclusion? ??

Well, she has also expressed some confusion about the roles similar to what I've felt, though admittedly that could be a ploy. I'd think though a baddie might not appear so 'at sea'.

Lalaith

10-31-2016, 11:39 AM

Sorry, work and differing time zones have necessitated a late arrival toDay .But anyway, I’ve been thinking about our no-shows and the effect they might have had on game play.
I agree that the assumption should be Cab was innocent. Kuru

Yes, that’s been an assumption lots of people have made, but then I got thinking, what if he'd been a wolf? I remembered someone had thought there were just two wolves - I went back and checked, and it was Legate . So then I thought, lets say McCaber was a wolf who hadn’t showed up – might this be a slip from a fellow wolf who knew they were only two around?
I know he's a top-grade player and so unlikely have made such a careless slip were he a wolf. But you never know. Legate seems to be very widely trusted at the moment. I know he carried out the will of the village on the first day and I do think he appears very helpful, but I don’t want to trust him blindly - I personally would much prefer Lottie as representative.

Then there’s our current sick patient, Kuru. No-one has come forward to counterclaim against him, but might the no-show of Boro yesterday tempt the wolves to risk breathing on him (Boro I mean) and then sending one of their number in to make a false claim? There is no reason that the wolves might not assume what most of the rest of us did, that Nerwen would be saved by the herbalist last night, in which case their situation would be getting desperate and they’d be prepared to take risks in order to get a kill.
An appearance by Boro himself would therefore be very welcome for a number of reasons.

Lalaith

10-31-2016, 12:01 PM

Reading over everyone's posts today as well...
However, I am thinking also another thing - that Inzil seems to be very happy now that Nerwen, whom he suspected yesterDay, died, to start immediately quite aggressively question Kuru.

Yes, this was something that I noticed as well.
Gah, none of this fits. Would it work that Zil and Kuru would be in a pack together - or Legate and Zil,or Legate and Kuru? The old wolf-on-wolf bickering routine wouldn't be so needful in this kind of game when there are no role-reveals after death.
I wish everyone would show up so we could at least eliminate Kuru more categorically from suspicion. On reflection I do think his reluctance to be rep does make his claim seem more credible.

Thinlómien

10-31-2016, 01:33 PM

First off, a general apology for being so lame in this game. I have unfortunately discovered why people with adult jobs often drop out of ww games, and being in dark about the rules and the roles is always highly unmotivating to me. When there's nothing you can do and feels like the actual game is in the hands of the wolves and gifteds, I find it really hard to actually focus on the game, especially when there's a gazillion other things happening in my life at the same time. ANYWAY I decided I am trying to try a bit more now, and I'm glad most people seem to finally favour a lynch today. Now, let's get some blood flowing... *insert maniacal grin* *anyway it's Halloween don't look at me*

if we choose a trustworthy Rep early enough - I would not be opposed to choosing Lottie again, btwI will side eye anyone who supports someone else than Lottie. Granted, it's not 100% certain she's a known innocent, but she should definitely not be a suspect priority. Also I don't think it's a problem she's not around at the actual deadline.

I see no reason not to believe Kuru's claim for toDay - we should see soon if he's telling the truth or not. I keep being a little paranoid about something huge going on, probably because the game has been so uneventful on the surface. I mean, we have one dead person who was probably innocent (RIGHT? like there's no way Nerwen could've been guilty? I've spent embarassingly long thinking about this) and one modfire, and everyone else is still here - and half of the village has been very quiet (not that I should really point any fingers there).

I'm a bit worried about Boro not turning up. I think he's most likely to be an ordo given his inactivity, but in that case his modfire will play straight into the wolves' hands, and it would be the second one. That makes me think we should really think our lynch through toDay and play it as safe as we can.

Next up: a list to sort out my thoughts.

Thinlómien

10-31-2016, 01:57 PM

Kuru - claims to be last Night's victim, fair enough. I've been conflicted about him all game and this hardly makes it easier as I'm creating scenarios in my head where the wolves targeted absentee Boro to make Kuru "a known innocent" but I don't know how likely that is. I think we should just wait and see and definitely not lynch him toDay.

Lottie - well, if she isn't innocent, the other option is that the wolves targeted McCaber on Night1 and wolf!Lottie went for the opening when McCaber didn't appear on Day1. That would have been a nice stroke of luck for them, and a risky strategy. It's hard to see Lottie as a wolf - if she is, then hats off for the bold play.

Lalaith - I still think she's likely to be innocent given how generally clueless she's been all game - unless the cluelessness is deliberate, but that's a bit of a dirty strategy in my book and I don't know if Lalaith would go for it. I suppose it's still not impossible for her to be a wolf.

Legate - okay now we get to the funny part. First off, no I don't really find him particularly suspicious - he's been helpful, reasonable, open about his thoughts unlike many others. But what I find suspicious is that he seems to have achieved some sort of a known innocent status, and by what exactly?? It would be a very nice wolf strategy to put one of them on a pedestal like that and then keep clapping him on the back like "look at this innocent guy isn't he marvelous". So anyone who gives Legate a free pass gets a massive side eye from this direction.

Dun - to be entirely honest, he keeps occupying my top suspicion slot. He's nothing but fishy, the only thing I'm wondering about is if he isn't too fishy to be fishy, if you get my meaning.

Boro - like I said, a wolf!ordo might feel a little more "honor-bound" to play and assuming he's innocent is going to be the better option if he gets modfired, but the actual truth could be anything. The couple of posts he made didn't really tell me much, and they didn't really scream innocent to me like innocent Boro's posts often do - but it was probably literally two posts.

Shasta - I keep forgetting he's playing at all, he's been so quiet. Busy, shady or suffering from ordoly lack of motivation? Who knows. But looking at my own list, by pure process of elimination I should find him mightily suspicious. We aren't that many in this village, but we do have three wolves (unless McCaber was indeed one - side note, that might have been a reason for Sally to limit the herbalists powers more than she originally planned). Shasta is a much more likely wolf in my book than, well, almost anyone bar Inzil, so I think he bears more looking at than we've done so far.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-31-2016, 02:19 PM

Good to see at least someone. The above couple of posts make me feel a bit better about Lommy - it feels like her innocent self, and the way of thinking sorta seems like it. It can still go either way, but it made me feel better.

The same goes for Lalaith, to a certain extent.

That would bring me back to considering Inzil for the lynch toDay. Hmm.

Shasta is nowhere to be seen very much. He would be of course a possible Wolf, but I would so much like to see him appear at first, especially as he had promised to come back with some more ideas.

I trust Kuru, I trust Lottie. Boro is nowhere to be seen.

Lottie - well, if she isn't innocent, the other option is that the wolves targeted McCaber on Night1 and wolf!Lottie went for the opening when McCaber didn't appear on Day1. That would have been a nice stroke of luck for them, and a risky strategy. It's hard to see Lottie as a wolf - if she is, then hats off for the bold play.
Wait, this does not make any sense. If the WWs had targeted McCaber on Night 1, he would have died on Night 2. But he died only on Night 3. Like, I can imagine a situation where the WWs would intentionally forgo the first kill in order to make Lottie look good (it's about the only "conspiracy theory" scheme I really consider possible at all so far, but that's also one extra reason for me to entrust Lottie with the vote so far as she seems trustworthy).

Shastanis Althreduin

10-31-2016, 02:38 PM

I'm here, and will (hopefully) be around until deadline.

I'll go and pull some things to respond to momentarily, but regarding the Herbalist and why I think they're out of power - didn't I already say? There was very little reason not to heal Nerwen if the Herbalist had the power to do so - especially considering the stalling strategy we've implemented. Every blocked kill sets the wolves back seriously - after all, this game has a hard limit on Days. Sally said the amount of power the Herbalist has would be based on the number of people playing - with the game for sure ending on Day 6 and the low number of players, I think it very likely that the Herbalist only had one save. That's not being a pessimist - that's being a realist. :p

Kuruharan

10-31-2016, 02:45 PM

There are some curious harmonies to the posts of Lalaith that I find suspicious.

but might the no-show of Boro yesterday tempt the wolves to risk breathing on him (Boro I mean) and then sending one of their number in to make a false claim?

And

as I'm creating scenarios in my head where the wolves targeted absentee Boro to make Kuru "a known innocent"

Food for thought.

But what I find suspicious is that he seems to have achieved some sort of a known innocent status, and by what exactly?? It would be a very nice wolf strategy to put one of them on a pedestal like that and then keep clapping him on the back like "look at this innocent guy isn't he marvelous". So anyone who gives Legate a free pass gets a massive side eye from this direction.

Fair enough.

Legate is likely innocent (and at this point in the game, pretty much has to be treated as one) because he was the first to publically advocate the risky and controversial plan of Not Lynching. He stuck to his guns on this point and the plan is/was a tactically and strategically sound one given the parameters of this game. If you want further explanation of why this is so, please go back and review our posts on the subject as I really don’t want to rehash the whole thing here.

Now, it is possible that this is all a cunning plot on his part, but if it is he deliberately set himself a steep challenge by making the game much harder on himself on a fundamental level so if he pulls it off, good on him.

But I don’t think that is at all likely and we can’t behave like it is.

I'm also growing concerned that the ordos are going to end up essentially forfeiting the game through modfiring which would be a very disappointing outcome on an intriguing and as far as I know fairly unique set-up for a game.

EDIT: Xed with Shasta

Boromir88

10-31-2016, 02:50 PM

Loslote

10-31-2016, 02:55 PM

Kuru

Yes, that’s been an assumption lots of people have made, but then I got thinking, what if he'd been a wolf? I remembered someone had thought there were just two wolves - I went back and checked, and it was Legate . So then I thought, lets say McCaber was a wolf who hadn’t showed up – might this be a slip from a fellow wolf who knew they were only two around?
I know he's a top-grade player and so unlikely have made such a careless slip were he a wolf. But you never know. Legate seems to be very widely trusted at the moment. I know he carried out the will of the village on the first day and I do think he appears very helpful, but I don’t want to trust him blindly - I personally would much prefer Lottie as representative.

Then there’s our current sick patient, Kuru. No-one has come forward to counterclaim against him, but might the no-show of Boro yesterday tempt the wolves to risk breathing on him (Boro I mean) and then sending one of their number in to make a false claim? There is no reason that the wolves might not assume what most of the rest of us did, that Nerwen would be saved by the herbalist last night, in which case their situation would be getting desperate and they’d be prepared to take risks in order to get a kill.
An appearance by Boro himself would therefore be very welcome for a number of reasons.

How would Legate have known that McCaber wasn't going to show up? I didn't know the game was starting until our dearest moddess messaged me on Facebook about it - it wouldn't have been reasonable at that point to assume that just because McCaber didn't show up on Night One that he wasn't going to show up at all. Your point about Legate seems to be grasping at straws, and so does your point about Kuru. A Kuruwolf would have nothing to gain from faking a claim. He was already widely trusted. You seem to be scrambling for reasons to suspect Legate and Kuru, possibly because in a village this small, eliminating two people from the pool of possible wolves is a very bad thing - for the wolves. This post makes me feel much, much worse about you.

Good to see at least someone. The above couple of posts make me feel a bit better about Lommy - it feels like her innocent self, and the way of thinking sorta seems like it. It can still go either way, but it made me feel better.

The same goes for Lalaith, to a certain extent.

I agree with you about Lommy, but not Lalaith. I'd say my priorities have shifted: I would much prefer to lynch Lalaith toDay at this point. Lommy's more recent posts have felt much more like her usual innocent self.

Edit: xed with Boro - good to see you!

Kuruharan

10-31-2016, 02:59 PM

The weekend snuck up and smacked me hard. But I promise I'm only mostly dead, which means I'm slightly alive. I just need a miracle to figure out what the heck has happened in the last 1.5-2 days. (No this isn't a counter to Kuru'a black breath, the weekend thoroughly tried to kill me...but not dead enough!)

Yay Boro's back!

My joy is nearly inexpressible!

I say "nearly" because there is the possibility that he might be bad. ;)

However, in all seriousness and semi-OCC, I really don't want to see anybody else get modfired. I want to see how this game genuinely plays out.

Shastanis Althreduin

10-31-2016, 03:24 PM

Well, I think there is a certain generic approach Shasta has like this, almost always. Speaking of generic approaches however, where his proverbial psychic powers are in this game?

They're still around, because I'll be honest - I still don't see what's so suspicious about Inzil. I think the most recent point against him was made by you, Legate, and it was a very Lottie-esque "well he just sounds overzealous"-type thing to say.

Boromir88

10-31-2016, 03:28 PM

Yay Boro's back!

My joy is nearly inexpressible!

I say "nearly" because there is the possibility that he might be bad. ;)
.

I wouldn't be throwing any parties. I'm likely to be pretty useless for as long as I'm still around, just a tired soul who's going to be an body for the cold stone tomb whenever the conspirators get into a sticky spot. (I see it's kinda started to happen).

But rest assured I won't go out THAT way (mod-firing). The conspirators will have to stick their necks out if they want me gone...I just can't see (nor should anyone expect) myself doing anything to make them want to get rid of me this time. :/

Inziladun

10-31-2016, 03:34 PM

Hm. Lal's latest does make her look sketchier. I have to remember though, as others have noted, there's no reason Legate should have a free pass. He certainly wouldn't be my lynch choice though.

I have to say too, this game thus far has done a fantastic (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_fJUg0eiZ8) job of keeping me wondering about everyone.

Kuruharan

10-31-2016, 03:40 PM

I have to remember though, as others have noted, there's no reason Legate should have a free pass.

I wouldn't describe it as a free pass. More like an earned pass. I just posted this...so why not post it again:

Legate is likely innocent (and at this point in the game, pretty much has to be treated as one) because he was the first to publically advocate the risky and controversial plan of Not Lynching. He stuck to his guns on this point and the plan is/was a tactically and strategically sound one given the parameters of this game. If you want further explanation of why this is so, please go back and review our posts on the subject as I really don’t want to rehash the whole thing here.

Now, it is possible that this is all a cunning plot on his part, but if it is he deliberately set himself a steep challenge by making the game much harder on himself on a fundamental level so if he pulls it off, good on him.

Seriously though, focusing on Legate at this point is counterproductive at the very least...possibly malicious.

Shastanis Althreduin

10-31-2016, 03:40 PM

I think it's worth talking about which win condition we want to fulfill.

From the admin thread -

The Ward is evacuated safely under two conditions:
1. All conspirators are eliminated before reinforcements arrive.
2. Either the bard or the herbalist is still alive when reinforcements arrive, and the population of innocent souls in the Ward either outnumbers or equals that of the conspirators.

Now, the game ends on Day 6. We aren't going to get a lynch that day, but conversely, the person whom the conspirators demoralize the Night before won't have had time to die. This means, in game terms, that we have five lynches to play with.

Now, we've already given up two of those with our no-lynch plan the past two days. In order to fulfill the first win condition, we'd have to be right each time we lynch, the next three days. That's certainly something we can try for, if we think we can pull it off, but it might be worth considering the second condition.

There are nine people alive - it's currently a 6/3 split in our favor. By tomorrow, Day 4, (if we no-lynch) it'll be 5/3 (assuming no Herbalist save). If we no-lynch again, on Day 5 (the final day) it'll be 4/3. Someone will likely die that night (all of this is assuming no more Gifted saves), but 3/3 is still equal; provided either the Herbalist or the Bard is still alive, we'll win.

I'm not sure it's the spirit of the game to never lynch anyone, but I do think it's an option that should be discussed. Anyone can check my math in case I'm wrong.

Kuruharan

10-31-2016, 03:51 PM

I think it's worth talking about which win condition we want to fulfill.

From the admin thread -

Now, the game ends on Day 6. We aren't going to get a lynch that day, but conversely, the person whom the conspirators demoralize the Night before won't have had time to die. This means, in game terms, that we have five lynches to play with.

Now, we've already given up two of those with our no-lynch plan the past two days. In order to fulfill the first win condition, we'd have to be right each time we lynch, the next three days. That's certainly something we can try for, if we think we can pull it off, but it might be worth considering the second condition.

There are nine people alive - it's currently a 6/3 split in our favor. By tomorrow, Day 4, (if we no-lynch) it'll be 5/3 (assuming no Herbalist save). If we no-lynch again, on Day 5 (the final day) it'll be 4/3. Someone will likely die that night (all of this is assuming no more Gifted saves), but 3/3 is still equal; provided either the Herbalist or the Bard is still alive, we'll win.

I'm not sure it's the spirit of the game to never lynch anyone, but I do think it's an option that should be discussed. Anyone can check my math in case I'm wrong.

I ran the scenario in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705655&postcount=166). According to that scenario, we would need at least one save for the no lynch scenario to work.

Time is beginning to wane.

What should we do toDAY?

Inziladun

10-31-2016, 03:56 PM

I'll go ahead and do this, since I don't foresee another rep candidate coming to mind.

++Lottie

As for the lynch, maybe

++Lalaith or

++Shasta (maybe because he isn't suspecting me :eek:)

Boro is here and being confusing.

Shastanis Althreduin

10-31-2016, 04:00 PM

I ran the scenario in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705655&postcount=166). According to that scenario, we would need at least one save for the no lynch scenario to work.

Time is beginning to wane.

What should we do toDAY?

You're right, the McCaber modfire threw me off. :rolleyes: Well, there goes that.

As far as a lynch goes, though, I think the two days of getting to be lazy because of the no-lynching has messed with my head a bit, because I can't think of anyone I suspect. I'll go take a look at Lommy and Lalaith, I suppose. Still don't suspect Inzil (even though he suspects me for not suspecting him, rude.)

Shastanis Althreduin

10-31-2016, 04:23 PM

Well, it can't be Kuru or Lottie.

It could be Legate, regardless of whether or not he proposed the early no-lynches; I personally am dealing with the repercussions of that (complacency) and I don't think I'm the only one. I haven't looked very seriously at much that he's said, to be honest, because the majority seems to think him a cleared innocent - and that's dangerous. It's a bit late in the day to do anything about that right now, though.

I don't think it's Inzil mostly because of the early out-of-nowhere suspicion on him that I didn't understand (and at this point, I'm not going to lie - I may be clinging to this impression of his innocence because I don't like being wrong.) I wouldn't want to see him lynched today, though.

Lalaith - I've only played a couple games with her, as I recall, and she reminds me a bit of G55 in that quasi-helpful way that she has, that almost looking-for-approval tone. Trouble is, I almost always think G55's innocent unless given some actual evidence, and I don't see any of that to say Lal is evil, so... tentatively think she's innocent.

Lommy I tend to trust more now that I have a more solid opinion on Legate, because she seems to be the only other person thus for who's entertained the notion. She also seems to be fully behind Lottie as rep, which is the sensible (if boring) option - and I'd think, this far into the game, having missed a kill, the wolves would be trying harder to wrest control of the lynch. I'm okay with her.

Boro is a total mystery. Process of elimination tells me he's probably a conspirator given my reads on everyone else. There's not a lot else to say here.

So, if I had to pick three... eesh. Boro for sure. Legate, because I'm not as sold as everyone else seems to be and it'd be a masterful play if he actually is evil (also, I've catapulted to "cleared" status before as evil - he remembers.) And... I don't know. I so don't want to be wrong on Inzil, but I suppose I could be.

That took far too long.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-31-2016, 04:24 PM

Great to see people around!

I am also very much happier about Shasta - he sounds reasonable and all, and seems genuine and genuinely thinking about the game.

Boro not much so far, I see. But at least he is around.

I guess we should keep a tally on the "votes" for who we want to see lynched. (Those can of course be "retracted" and so on, but I'm thinking mainly so that we know who seems to be wanted by the majority. And also by whom!) I will try to take a look at that in a second...

EDIT: x-ed with one Shasta

Lalaith

10-31-2016, 04:25 PM

How would Legate have known that McCaber wasn't going to show up?
He wouldn't of course, but if he were a wolf worrying about the third wolf not having shown up during Night one, it might explain why he said two wolves on Day One - it was an odd thing to say.
It's certainly not enough to make me want to lynch him but I was concerned about the consensus forming around his innocence - such unchallenged consensus is dangerous.
Boro's timely arrival has calmed my concerns about Kuru.
Speaking of which - I was going to say, whether Boro turned up or not, I don't believe in reading so much into Boro's possible role based on his absence - RL issues can affect gifted, wolves and ordos alike.
Anyway, despite her current bloodlust in my direction, I am going to vote
++Loslote as rep, as I think she is the only more or less safe bet to be innocent.
As I said, now Boro has confirmed he is breath-free I am no longer worried about Kuru - but I still believe that we have at least one noisy wolf among us, and of the three I was trying to fit into a pattern earlier, the most wolfy is Zil, and I would be inclined to vote there.

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-31-2016, 04:36 PM

Okay, there aren't really "clear" votes as far as I can see apart from Zil's.

Inzil => ++Lalaith, or maybe ++Shasta

But:
Lottie was originally for ++Lommy, but now would prefer ++Lalaith (right?) So it would effectively be for Lalaith from you at the moment?

I am not sure if I would like to lynch Lalaith, it is an option I would not oppose, but I might prefer Zil or even Boro (yeah, now that he is nicely here, we can happily lynch him, right... ;) )

EDIT: x-ed since my last (i.e., Lalaith)

Loslote

10-31-2016, 04:37 PM

I'll have to leave soon, so since I'm getting rep votes again, I wanted to leave you all with a summary of my current state of mind.

I do think we need to lynch today, and I will listen to the will of the village within reason. (If you all try to tell me to have Legate or Kuru killed, I'm not gonna do it, sorry not sorry.) I would lean towards Lalaith, but I also feel shaky about Shasta and Lommy. If everyone insists on Zil, I would go with the will of the majority, but I don't think I would go for Boro at this point.

Please, when you vote, also include who you would like to lynch toDay! I don't want to mess up and have the wrong person killed, and I won't be around at the deadline to confirm with you all what the final decision is. Transparency is the best way to be sure no unfortunate mistakes are made!

Also, if you decide not to go with me, I would be perfectly happy with

++Legate

as rep. I don't know where this recent suspicion came from - it appears to have come from the fact that no one does suspect him, which I think is a little ridiculous and a lot suspicious - but I still trust him.

Edit: xed with Legate

Thinlómien

10-31-2016, 04:46 PM

Just when I thought I had a hang of this game, you guys start messing with my head again. Mostly just the mats though.

Wait, this does not make any sense. If the WWs had targeted McCaber on Night 1, he would have died on Night 2. But he died only on Night 3. Like, I can imagine a situation where the WWs would intentionally forgo the first kill in order to make Lottie look good (it's about the only "conspiracy theory" scheme I really consider possible at all so far, but that's also one extra reason for me to entrust Lottie with the vote so far as she seems trustworthy). You're right, my bad. But it doesn't sound very likely that the wolves would skip their first kill just for funsies, does it? Well, if they did, it was rather brilliant. But I'm not really considering that. Not now.

Legate is likely innocent (and at this point in the game, pretty much has to be treated as one) because he was the first to publically advocate the risky and controversial plan of Not Lynching. He stuck to his guns on this point and the plan is/was a tactically and strategically sound one given the parameters of this game. If you want further explanation of why this is so, please go back and review our posts on the subject as I really don’t want to rehash the whole thing here.I agree he's most likely innocent, but you being so adamant about it makes me think that if you don't succumb to the black breath and there's no clear indication of a save, Legate should be definitely looked at too. This (and the totally unnecessary follow up in #193) is exactly the kind of patting on the back that's weirding me out in this game. But it's a bit pointless to speculate that toDay as your fate remains to be seen (okay, that sounded cold, I was just playing an rpg with a ruthless bounty hunter character and maybe the attitude stuck :D) and Legate is hardly a primary problem toDay for the reasons you mention.

The weekend snuck up and smacked me hard. But I promise I'm only mostly dead, which means I'm slightly alive. I just need a miracle to figure out what the heck has happened in the last 1.5-2 days. (No this isn't a counter to Kuru'a black breath, the weekend thoroughly tried to kill me...but not dead enough!)*waves* Good to have you back! At least for the time being. :p

Shasta's advocating for a no lynch, huh? That doesn't sound very good to me. Like it sounds stupid (and boring), and doesn't make me think better of Shasta either.

++Lottie for rep

edit: xed with "198 and everything onwards :eek:

Thinlómien

10-31-2016, 04:57 PM

Lalaith's latest got me like :confused::confused:. And by that I mean it sounded so contrived that perhaps I'm mistaken about her after all. I don't know. I still think she's probably a very confused innocent.

++Inzil

for lynch. Like I've said before, he keeps stirring the discussion in the weirdest ways, while being very glib and not always making much sense (okay, few of us do in this weird game, sorry about that mate). Something's just wrong about him.

Also, Shasta's pretty high on my suspicion list too and his reluctance to lynch Inzil makes me raise my eyebrows quite a lot too - it's easy to see wolf!Shasta trying to avoid the lynch of fellow Inzil (who's been quite widely suspected since Day1).

Shastanis Althreduin

10-31-2016, 05:05 PM

Shasta's advocating for a no lynch, huh? That doesn't sound very good to me. Like it sounds stupid (and boring), and doesn't make me think better of Shasta either.

I am doing no such thing. I presented it as an option without taking the modkill into account, and let go of that plan when it was pointed out by Kuru. This sort of spin makes me think quite badly of Lommy suddenly.

Boromir88

10-31-2016, 05:08 PM

Why are we voting Lottie for rep?

Shastanis Althreduin

10-31-2016, 05:11 PM

Why are we voting Lottie for rep?

Cause we're boring.

(She was saved by the Herbalist.)

Legate of Amon Lanc

10-31-2016, 05:22 PM

Okay, it's bedtime for me as well, so.

++Loslote for the Rep

I am for lynching Boro primarily, or secondarily Zil. If there is a majority for either of those, I would support that one (Zil seems to be more probable, so I guess if I were to cast a "real vote", it would be
++Zil
). If there is a majority for Lalaith, I could go with that (and if I end up being elected, I'd honor that if it would be a majority wish).

I am certainly against lynching Shasta, Kuru or Loslote.

So far, I believe our "tally" for the lynch would be:

Loslote=>Lalaith
Zil=>Lalaith
Lommy=>Inzil
Legate=>Inzil

Correct me if I am wrong, I am really really going to sleep now, but I trust people will see it if I'm blatantly wrong. I think I am not.

That's roughly it. Good Night.

P. S. And I really appeal on all of you to do the "mock lynch vote" here. Because it also makes it much easier to figure out who really said what and all that.

Kuruharan

10-31-2016, 05:27 PM

++Lottie for Rep although I believe that is academic now.

As much as it would have been cool to be the first village in the history of...ever to possibly win a game without making any lynches...circumstances dictate that we do so.

Make no mistake about it, I do not trust Inzil. He may very well be bad and we may need to eject him.

However, of the realistic candidates on offer, I feel worse about ++Lalaith. :(

Sorry, Lalaith. You know I love you. :cool:

Edit: Forgot my vote pluses.

Boromir88

10-31-2016, 05:29 PM

In that case...

++Lottie for rep

As for the lynch. I'm all for informing the guards a name today. I'm not going to have a clue who, so I will leave it to the hands of our chosen member. She seems to have a rational and logical mind for her choices, much better than the random guesses I would throw out right now.

Lalaith

10-31-2016, 05:41 PM

I too need to go to sleep. I vote for ++Inzil.
Kuru, there's only one thing to say and that's :Merisu:

Shastanis Althreduin

10-31-2016, 05:51 PM

++Lottie 4 Rep

I'd go with Lommy or Boro, at this point. Outside shot at Inzil, I suppose, but the first two (mostly after Lommy's most recent spin on things I've done).

Kuruharan

10-31-2016, 05:57 PM

Whatever else may be said, Inzil's right about one thing...not enough video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8NAYW-Z54o) links this game.

EDIT: That first cat may have been reading this game...

satansaloser2005

10-31-2016, 06:01 PM

++youtube links for representative

The Day has ended. It occurs to me I haven't been clearly numbering the Days and Nights, so I'll fix that once I'm not on mobile.

Lottie is the rep. Kindly send me your report at your convenience.

Sweet dreams, everyone.

satansaloser2005

11-01-2016, 06:04 PM

Dun tossed and turned in his bed. The nightmares had gotten worse over the last couple of nights; it was nearly impossible for him to sleep without seeing Nerwen or Phantom.

A loud thud echoed through Dun's room as he fell from his bed. He groggily rolled over, his bedding joining him on the floor and covering his body. A moment later, he was wrenched from the floor by sharp-nailed fingers. He screamed, but the blankets muffled his voice.

"Help me!" he shouted again. "What's happening?"

The pressure on his legs tightened, claws digging into his calves as another hand clamped over his mouth. He was being carried somewhere, clearly, but where, and by whom?

"Mmmph mmmm didn't mmph!"

"Silence!" a gravelly voice demanded, and when Dun struggled again, the fingers on his face thrust into his cheeks, blood spilling down his face.

He tried to ask what they wanted, but before he could do anything else about his predicament, he was slammed to the floor.

The floor of his bedroom was cold. Dun shivered, attempting to recover his bearings. He was covered in sweat, but definitely uninjured.

"It was just a dream," he reminded himself. "I'm going to be just-"

A hand closed over his mouth, and the room was silent once more.

Patients
Kuru
Lottie
Lalaith
Lommy
Legate
Boro
Shasta

The Morgue
Phantom (for posterity)
McCaber
Nerwen
Dun

It is now Day 4.

Loslote

11-01-2016, 07:26 PM

You guys left me with a very close vote - 4/3, arguably 3.5/3 in favor of Zil - which left me with a difficult decision! I argued (https://youtu.be/vdNSi07T5GQ?t=6)with myself for a long time last Night, but ultimately decided that the will of the majority should rule even in the event of a close tie. And if I'm reading the narration right, I think Zil having nightmares about tp and Nerwen means he was, in fact, evil? So yay for staying calm and not flying off the handle. :p

Also, I woke up this morning with a dreadful headache and this weird, oozy rash (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4rR-OsTNCg)...wonder what that's about...

(It's the Black Breath, in case I wasn't clear enough. I am not long for this world, my friends, not long indeed...)

Also, I'm assuming the Herbalist saved Kuru, probably to even out the odds in case we end up with the Day Six winning condition. Thanks, Herbalist.

Loslote

11-01-2016, 07:57 PM

I also wonder if my being targeted last Night suggests that there is at least one wolf in the people pushing for suspicion against Legate. The wolves couldn't have chosen one of the unknown innocents, since that would just make it obvious who the wolves are, but they could have chosen Legate without tipping their hand - unless they're still hoping to swing the tide and orchestrate suspicion against him. I do think the people who pushed for that yesterDay (Shasta and Lalaith, primarily) deserve a closer look.

I also think the way Shasta tried to defend Zil and then suddenly put him in his top three for lynching looks very suspicious. Now that the narration seems to suggest that Zil was a wolf, I would argue that Shasta looks likely to be his packmate.

Kuruharan

11-01-2016, 08:58 PM

First off, yay, I'm still alive!

And if I'm reading the narration right, I think Zil having nightmares about tp and Nerwen means he was, in fact, evil?

I hope so, and it was possible, but I don't read the narration as necessarily implying that.

However, that is neither here nor there.

(It's the Black Breath, in case I wasn't clear enough. I am not long for this world, my friends, not long indeed...)

Alas.

I do think the people who pushed for that yesterDay (Shasta and Lalaith, primarily) deserve a closer look.

I wholeheartedly agree.

Legate of Amon Lanc

11-02-2016, 05:31 AM

And if I'm reading the narration right, I think Zil having nightmares about tp and Nerwen means he was, in fact, evil? So yay for staying calm and not flying off the handle. :p
Funny, because I read it completely in the opposite way. "It looks as if he was good, being haunted in the same way they were." Although I see now that it would make equal, if not more sense if that was that those he had contributed to killing haunted him. But I assume it's meant to be ambiguous anyway. So I am not sure.

Also, I'm assuming the Herbalist saved Kuru, probably to even out the odds in case we end up with the Day Six winning condition. Thanks, Herbalist.
Speaking of that, would that mean the option of "waiting it out" might be feasible again? Of course there is the ambiguity whether Zil was good or evil (if evil, then it should be fairly good in our favor, though). Can somebody do the maths? Are we once again in the "if one kill can be prevented..." situation? Because then it might be better to avoid the lynching. It would be close though, I bet.

I also think the way Shasta tried to defend Zil and then suddenly put him in his top three for lynching looks very suspicious. Now that the narration seems to suggest that Zil was a wolf, I would argue that Shasta looks likely to be his packmate.
I would not be too hasty about that. First, let's keep in mind that we really don't know whether Zil was a Wolf or not. Second, I don't actually think Shasta put Zil among his top three in any striking manner.

In fact, I was sorta surprised Zil got lynched in the end, because it started to look like he wasn't a very popular target. Obviously, Lalaith's vote for him was self-preservation. But that Shasta was indeed a "0.5", because he simply did not want to lynch Lalaith more.

Anyway, I have generally fairly good feeling about Shasta, myself. Whether I agree with his opinions or not, he seems to be thinking things through and it feels like it is genuine.

Boromir88

11-02-2016, 07:25 AM

I'm likely going to have to vote very, very early today. Unless something dramatically changes in the next few hours, I want Kuru for rep.

No matter Inzil's role, Lottie, you did the best with what you were given and with the knowledge you had at the time. It's all any of us could ask from a representative. Your conscience is clear. Sleep in peace if the herbalist can't cure your affliction tonight.

Kuruharan

11-02-2016, 07:30 AM

Anyway, I have generally fairly good feeling about Shasta, myself. Whether I agree with his opinions or not, he seems to be thinking things through and it feels like it is genuine.

See, I don't get where you are picking that up. As I will demonstrate in a post later toDAY, he at the very least is not reading the thread with a great deal of care, which is a classic wolf tell.

Who is your wolf pack?

My worst case scenario wolf pack is Shasta, Lalaith, and Lommy.

My better case scenario wolf pack is Shasta, Lalaith, and Inzil.

Kuruharan

11-02-2016, 08:39 AM

Loslote

11-02-2016, 08:59 AM

See, I don't get where you are picking that up. As I will demonstrate in a post later toDAY, he at the very least is not reading the thread with a great deal of care, which is a classic wolf tell.

Who is your wolf pack?

My worst case scenario wolf pack is Shasta, Lalaith, and Lommy.

My better case scenario wolf pack is Shasta, Lalaith, and Inzil.

I agree with your pack scenarios. I don't think Boro is a wolf, which means it has to be one of the other four (Lommy, Lalaith, Zil, or Shasta). Since we killed one last Night, if we kill another toNight, I think we are just about guaranteed to have killed at least one wolf, which is why I think we definitely should have another lynch toNight.

Also, I will be in and out today, but I will be around closer to dl.

Boromir88

11-02-2016, 11:00 AM

I would also like to propose that Lottie be our representative for the DAY so that if she isn't healed she can go out with a bang and hopefully take a wolf down too.

I mean, there can't be any doubt that she is innocent.

In that case...

++Lottie for rep.

I agree with having another lynch chosen today. If Inzil was a conspirator, we are in a good spot. If he wasn't, and we decide no lynch today it seems we'll be hard pressed to hold on til the reinforcements.

The ones who make me most nervous of conspiracy are Shasta and Legate.

Kuruharan

11-02-2016, 11:10 AM

Looks like everyone is like me and doesn't have much time to play the game today.

Shasta posts from yesterday

Post 185 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705674&postcount=185) - Says the Herbalist might only have one save and seems...unduly happy about this for an ordo.

Post 190 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705679&postcount=190)- Still defends Inzil rather strenuously.

Post 194 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705683&postcount=194) - This is the post that gives me the strongest impression that he is not paying attention to the thread. He somehow managed to miss my Post 166 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705655&postcount=166) which from visual style alone is one of the most noticeable posts in the thread. Not actually reading the thread is a potential wolfish tell because wolves can subconsciously not read the thread because they don't need to. They already know who is guilty.

Also, at that stage, no-lynch was detrimental to the Ward because we couldn't win that way at that point.

Post 197 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705686&postcount=197) - He says he doesn't really suspect anybody. Says with almost a "ho-hum" that he will take a look at Lommy and Lalaith.

Post 198 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705687&postcount=198) - Suspicious of Legate for no other reason than it would be really cleverly evil of Legate to be evil in this game. Still defending Inzil.

Post 207 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705696&postcount=207) - Why does he write disparagingly about the Ward behaving sensibly?

Post 212 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705701&postcount=212) - Suddenly says there might be an outside shot at Inzil being a wolf...but why at that point all of a sudden when Inzil had been deeply suspected from the beginning?

I haven't had time toDAY to run a numbers scenario, and I am not sure that I will. That being said, I am not sure not-lynching is a winning strategy for the Ward at this point. To borrow the analogy from Thucydides, by starting to lynch we have taken a tiger by the tail (our lynches might be wrong). It might have been dangerous for us to seize the tiger by the tail but it is more dangerous for us to let it go now (i.e. the only way for us to correct a bad lynch at this point is a correct lynch).

Now, if somebody wants to run a few scenarios and post them here, I strongly encourage that to happen. I'm just not sure I will be able to get to it as I am very busy at work today.

Xed with Boro

Kuruharan

11-02-2016, 11:11 AM

I would also like to say that my preference for a lynch toDAY would be Lalaith as she seems the most likely wolf suspect to achieve a solid consensus.

Lalaith

11-02-2016, 11:13 AM

Unless something dramatically changes in the next few hours, I want Kuru for rep.

Now why would you say that? It's evidently clear that Lottie is innocent - Kuru is probably innocent but there is a scenario where he could be guilty. So why choose Kuru over Lottie?

(The scenario where Kuru could be guilty is as follows: desperate wolves would be needing to replace known innocent Lottie with one of their own - how would they do this? Well, once Lottie was finally out of the way, the next 'survivor' would take her place - thus having a conspirator controlling the lynching. It would be possible to stage-manage by simply not breathing on anyone on Night 2 and then having Kuruwolf claiming to be sick).
No, I'm not putting anyone in the known innocent pile other than Lottie and myself. I do think Zil was probably a wolf. I think Boro, Lommy, Legate and [B]Shasta could be wolves. And think even Kuru, far-fetched as it might be, could be a wolf. He has been so adamant about Legate being innocent because of the no-lynching plan, but what if that had been hatched as a wolfy plan to keep the conspirators safe until night-kills put them in the majority to control lynchings? It doesn't seem to have worked out that way, what with Lottie being such a great survivor. But that doesn't mean I'm giving Legate a clean bill of health.
(Thought - if Legate and Kuru turn out to be wolves they will have played with such wily elegance that frankly they deserve to win)

Loslote

11-02-2016, 11:49 AM

At this point, I am not super worried about Lommy. She has seemed much more innocent in the past couple Days than she had at first, and I think Shasta and Lalaith are by far the most sinister seeming of the four unknowns. Could Legate be a wolf? Maybe - but if the only argument against him is that there is no proof that he's for sure innocent, I would be wary of anyone who seriously suggested him as a target toDay.

Legate of Amon Lanc

11-02-2016, 12:55 PM

Ok, very short time so I will try to be brief and say as much as possible at the same time. I'll be back later in a couple of hours, but for now...
I'm likely going to have to vote very, very early today. Unless something dramatically changes in the next few hours, I want Kuru for rep.
That was random - why was the initial choice this and not Lottie? Just curious.
See, I don't get where you are picking that up. As I will demonstrate in a post later toDAY, he at the very least is not reading the thread with a great deal of care, which is a classic wolf tell.
I actually believe reading the thread carefully is the mark of a Wolf, because they are trying to "stay on top of things". But it depends on the Wolf, I guess. Anyway, after reading your analysis of Shasta, really at least half of it is absolutely the case of "I see a guilty person, now everything he does is evil". That's not to say I don't see reasonably based accusations among some of those, but many of them I don't see as suspicious or think they can be interpreted either way. In any case, I would not base any suspicion on what he has read or not. Many people can read half on the run, from the mobile, whatnot, and this has happened before. Like, I also don't understand how somebody can skip a post like your analysis which takes about half a page, but however frustrating it is, it has happened before. And if it's so visible, then why would a Wolf skip that, of all things. So that actually is one of the (tiny, admitted) things that speak actually for me in Shasta's favor.

Who is your wolf pack?
Probably in the positive case something like Lalaith, Boro and Inzil. In case Zil was innocent, then something like Lalaith, Boro and Lommy. Boro more so than Lalaith.

My AbsoluteWorstNightmareScenarioOfAll(TM) is Loslote, Kuru and Boro, given how well you just all seemed to agree on everything just among yourselves now (but I understand there was nobody around). But that is just good ol' paranoia right now. I hope.

But, on the subject of Boro, he seems really flip-floppy now, and I don't really trust him. I wish to see more from Lommy and Lal however. My pick for lynch toDay will probably be among them.

Kuruharan

11-02-2016, 01:10 PM

But, on the subject of Boro, he seems really flip-floppy now, and I don't really trust him. I wish to see more from Lommy and Lal however. My pick for lynch toDay will probably be among them.

I wouldn't say that Boro is trustworthy. Far from it.

I would say that trying to lynch him would be the biggest shot in the dark of everyone for toDAY and I do not believe we can afford to gamble like that if we want to win.

Kuruharan

11-02-2016, 01:11 PM

Also, the numbers today are in the danger zone for serious wolf manipulation if the likely innocents do not present a unified front, especially if Inzil was innocent.

Legate of Amon Lanc

11-02-2016, 02:13 PM

Also, the numbers today are in the danger zone for serious wolf manipulation if the likely innocents do not present a unified front, especially if Inzil was innocent.

I was thinking the same. In that way, having one generally trusted elected representative helps a lot. Because the WWs can't very well manipulate vote at least in that way.

Shastanis Althreduin

11-02-2016, 03:00 PM

I'm here. And to be perfectly frank, I trust Kuru about as far as I can throw him (hint: not far). I'll reply to his points in #225 first -

Post 185 - Says the Herbalist might only have one save and seems...unduly happy about this for an ordo.
I still believe this, for the record. I'll explain below. Also, you said yesterDay that you were suspicious of me for making this comment because it was "overly pessimistic". You can't have it both ways.
Post 190 - Still defends Inzil rather strenuously.
I didn't think he was evil. I'll be the first to admit I've had more innocent-reads than guilty-reads this game - Inzil was one of them. As Legate has said today, I only quasi-voted for Inzil over Lalaith because I tend to have a stronger innocent-read on her. Could I be wrong? Of course I could be - anyone could. I don't think I am, though.
Post 194 - This is the post that gives me the strongest impression that he is not paying attention to the thread. He somehow managed to miss my Post 166 which from visual style alone is one of the most noticeable posts in the thread. Not actually reading the thread is a potential wolfish tell because wolves can subconsciously not read the thread because they don't need to. They already know who is guilty.

Also, at that stage, no-lynch was detrimental to the Ward because we couldn't win that way at that point.
I already admitted that the McCaber modfire is what threw off my calculations. Honestly, I put that scenario together during the Night. This is the only game we've ever played where innocents can be certain of surviving the Night, and I couldn't be here during the proper Day, so I took advantage. Also, it's easy to scroll past things when you're playing on mobile.
Post 197 - He says he doesn't really suspect anybody. Says with almost a "ho-hum" that he will take a look at Lommy and Lalaith.
I didn't, at the time. Like I already said, the first two lazy days played havoc with my Werewolf radar. :p I didn't really suspect either Lommy or Lalaith, and neither had said overly much in any case (I know, pot meet kettle) - it wasn't until the very end of the day yesterDay that I began to suspect Lommy.
Post 198 - Suspicious of Legate for no other reason than it would be really cleverly evil of Legate to be evil in this game. Still defending Inzil.
Defending Inzil isn't suspicious unless you know for a fact he's evil - which you can't, unless you're evil yourself. Odd, that. In any case, Legate is scary when left unlooked at and I had to narrow it down to three.
Post 207 - Why does he write disparagingly about the Ward behaving sensibly?
Cause it's boring. No one's denying it was the sensible option - you'll notice I voted for Lottie in the end. But Lottie's been rep every day and I'm playing this game to have fun. :p
Post 212 - Suddenly says there might be an outside shot at Inzil being a wolf...but why at that point all of a sudden when Inzil had been deeply suspected from the beginning?
Already explained this. The quasi-voting had given every appearance of coming down to Inzil and Lalaith - of the two, I was more confident in Lalaith being innocent.

----------

Now then. Why's Kuru a wolf? Well, it's actually fairly devious.

Firstly, let's examine the Herbalist. I believe the Herbalist had one save. The reason for this is slightly meta, but I think it's fairly strong - if the Herbalist had more than one save, it becomes nearly impossible for the wolves to win in this setup. I don't think Sally would do that. As already has been established, the wolves only get 5 kills this game. Combine that with the delayed kill (establishing cleared innocents every day), the ability to no-lynch (denying the wolves possible mislynches), and an Herbalist with two saves, and you end up with the wolves only having three chances to take down the Bard and Herbalist (and that's not even factoring in possible Bard saves). The wolves' other option is to outnumber the village, but the same limiting factors apply to that scenario as well. It's doable, but only just. The setup makes much more sense, in my opinion, if the Herbalist can only save once.

In either case, the wolves need mislynches in order to win. Reporting someone to the guards is a much better method of killing than demoralization (which clears an innocent every day unless counterclaimed). Look at the numbers (the ones Kuru is so fond of crunching :p) - even having "missed" two kills, we're still in a possible 4v3 situation today if Inzil was indeed innocent. All the wolves need is a single innocent vote to go their way and they've got a majority.

What I think happened is this. The wolves deliberately targeted no-one two Nights ago. Kuru then claimed to be demoralized - no one counterclaimed him, because the wolves didn't actually target anyone. When he (obviously) didn't die toDay, well, that must have been the Herbalist's second save, right? Presto! Cleared innocent Kuru.

And Boro, who I think must be a wolf based on process of elimination, started the day by suggesting Kuru be representative, which leads back to the "single innocent vote" above. He's voted Lottie by now, of course, after being called on it.

Shastanis Althreduin

11-02-2016, 03:07 PM

I admit to skimming a bit in order to get my post in as quickly as I could. Reading back, I see Lal has already mentioned the possibility of a wolf no-kill and Kuru claiming to be demoralized. It's a good thought. :Merisu:

Also, there's this, from Kuru -
I wouldn't say that Boro is trustworthy. Far from it.

I would say that trying to lynch him would be the biggest shot in the dark of everyone for toDAY and I do not believe we can afford to gamble like that if we want to win.

- which is flip-floppy in and of itself, in my opinion. If you think Boro is "far from trustworthy", it seems to me as though you'd want to lynch him. But you obviously don't.

Shastanis Althreduin

11-02-2016, 03:13 PM

So then, if we have a wolfpack of three, I think two of them are Kuru and Boro. For the third... well, it's obviously not Lottie. It's technically possible it's Lalaith - but after thinking her fairly innocent all game, and then her mentioning the possible no-kill... I doubt it. Could it be Legate? Well, I suppose it could - Kuru's been fairly vocal about Legate being "clear" most of the game, as far as I can tell, and the no-lynch being the optimal strategy was fairly clear from the beginning - no reason a canny wolf couldn't pounce on that to seem innocent. That's only a "maybe", though. I think, after yesterday's attempt to throw shade on me alongside Kuru out of nowhere, Lommy's probably more likely to be the third wolf. I'd probably prefer a Kuru/Boro/Lommy lynch order.

I'll go on record again as not particularly wanting to vote for Lottie a fourth time in a row. But at this point, she's already got a vote (albeit from a probable wolf) and it's better to capitalize at this point in the game.

++Lottie 4 repz.... again, I guess

Kuruharan

11-02-2016, 03:19 PM

Firstly, let's examine the Herbalist. I believe the Herbalist had one save. The reason for this is slightly meta, but I think it's fairly strong - if the Herbalist had more than one save, it becomes nearly impossible for the wolves to win in this setup.

Sounds like a stymied and frustrated wolf to me.

In either case, the wolves need mislynches in order to win.

Hence the frustration. The Ward's initial adopted tactic of not lynching was specifically designed to counter this problem.

What I think happened is this. The wolves deliberately targeted no-one two Nights ago. Kuru then claimed to be demoralized - no one counterclaimed him, because the wolves didn't actually target anyone. When he (obviously) didn't die toDay, well, that must have been the Herbalist's second save, right? Presto! Cleared innocent Kuru.

Why would the wolves fail to make a demoralization choice when as you say...

As already has been established, the wolves only get 5 kills this game. Combine that with the delayed kill (establishing cleared innocents every day), the ability to no-lynch (denying the wolves possible mislynches), and an Herbalist with two saves, and you end up with the wolves only having three chances to take down the Bard and Herbalist (and that's not even factoring in possible Bard saves).

Failing to make demoralization choices could easily lead the wolves into a position where it is physically impossible for them to win.

The alternative is this risky scenario where for some reason I concoct this plan to become a known innocent so that...I as a wolf am unable to win the game because there are no longer enough possible kills...

That does not compute.

I admit to skimming a bit in order to get my post in as quickly as I could. Reading back, I see Lal has already mentioned the possibility of a wolf no-kill and Kuru claiming to be demoralized. It's a good thought. :Merisu:

Or a sign of a plot developed in the NIGHT so that the wolves will be on the same page and saying the same thing during the DAY attacking one of the players that poses the greatest threat to them.

Xed with the last Shasta

Kuruharan

11-02-2016, 03:21 PM

which is flip-floppy in and of itself, in my opinion. If you think Boro is "far from trustworthy", it seems to me as though you'd want to lynch him. But you obviously don't.

Can only lynch one at a time.

Priorities and probabilities.

Shastanis Althreduin

11-02-2016, 03:27 PM

Failing to make demoralization choices could easily lead the wolves into a position where it is physically impossible for them to win.

The alternative is this risky scenario where for some reason I concoct this plan to become a known innocent so that...I as a wolf am unable to win the game because there are no longer enough possible kills...

That does not compute.

Risk vs. reward, which I'm sure you know all about - giving up one kill attempt -that has a major drawback in clearing someone, and isn't strictly necessary in any case, as today's situation proves - in order to set yourself up to enjoy major influence on the better method of killing (as you did, with Inzil's lynch). And, also, look at the situation you're in today, as has been pointed out - one vote away from winning the game entirely. Not a bad return on giving up one kill attempt, wouldn't you say?

Shastanis Althreduin

11-02-2016, 03:28 PM

Why would the wolves fail to make a demoralization choice

Same reason the innocents would "fail" to lynch someone. Different strategies for different setups.

Thinlómien

11-02-2016, 03:32 PM

So I think we can further confirm Lottie and Kuru are innocent. That makes me feel a teeny bit less worried about the option of Legate being a wolf after all, because these two have been his most adamant supporters.

Boro is kinda... ominous?

I haven't had time toDAY to run a numbers scenario, and I am not sure that I will. That being said, I am not sure not-lynching is a winning strategy for the Ward at this point. To borrow the analogy from Thucydides, by starting to lynch we have taken a tiger by the tail (our lynches might be wrong). It might have been dangerous for us to seize the tiger by the tail but it is more dangerous for us to let it go now (i.e. the only way for us to correct a bad lynch at this point is a correct lynch).Please, let's not start the not lynching business again. Until the game is over we won't know if it was a smart move or not, but I'm 99% sure it's not a smart move now, and it's very frustrating in any case.

Shasta's interesting? His outside-the-box thinking does make him look better in my eyes, even though I feel like Inzil-Shasta would have been a very likely wolf combo.

General thoughts at this point? I still think Legate the Benevolent Mastermind and Lalaith the Clueless (sorry dears) feel innocent, but I'm not leaving them out of my calculations. Shasta? Not so sure, especially if Inzil was indeed a wolf. Boro? Has hardly been here but the little we have seen isn't particularly convincing. I kinda agree with Kuru that lynching Boro would be a huge shot in the dark, but I don't like the idea of an inactive Borowolf being given a pass just because of his inactivity either. If Boro and Shasta are packmates, Shasta's recent attack on Boro could be a wolf-on-wolf distancing attempt. Note he puts Kuru first in his suspicions.

Yeah, so kinda leaning towards Inzil-Shasta-Boro at the moment, even though there's a lot of unsure in that. Of course the obvious solution is often wrong, so I definitely hope it's not something like Legate-Lalaith-Kuru. :eek:

I definitely want to hear more from Boro, (and also Lalaith). Like, if Boro doesn't post more I might advocate lynching him just because he's a liability.....

edit: xed with Kuru's #236 and onwards

Kuruharan

11-02-2016, 03:37 PM

- in order to set yourself up to enjoy major influence on the better method of killing (as you did, with Inzil's lynch).

That is not true.

I did not want Inzil lynched yesterday and argued against it. See Post 167 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705656&postcount=167) and Post 209 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=705698&postcount=209).

Shastanis Althreduin

11-02-2016, 03:53 PM

Do you mean these?

CONCLUSION FOR THE MOMENT: He might be a good lynch target…but for the time being I’d really rather not…and I will get to why in a minute.

Indeed. You said much the same about Lalaith -

CONCLUSION: She might be a wolf. Not sure she’s the best lynch target, but she definitely might be a wolf.

- and Lommy -

CONCLUSION: Unsure. Could well be a wolf…but might not be.

- lots of "mights" there. In fact, I think your strongest candidate was, well -

CONCLUSION: I might be completely off base on this one. I admit that, and am certainly open to discussion and persuasion on this, but out of all the players in the game right now, I feel worst about him.

- me.

When it came down to Inzil versus Lalaith, though -

Make no mistake about it, I do not trust Inzil. He may very well be bad and we may need to eject him.

However, of the realistic candidates on offer, I feel worse about ++Lalaith.

Sorry, Lalaith. You know I love you.

I'd almost argue you seem to have felt worse about Inzil earlier - it's a bit hard to tell, though, with all the "mights" floating around. However, at the time you quasi-voted, the votes stood thusly -

Loslote=>Lalaith
Zil=>Lalaith
Lommy=>Inzil
Legate=>Inzil

- with Lalaith, Boro, and myself to vote. Lalaith could obviously be expected to vote for Inzil in self-preservation, and Boro abstained (eyebrow-raising; I'd have expected him to care more, I suppose). In any case, it's an interesting tie to have made; your vote kept the votes tied for as long as possible, and you made it fairly plain in your post that you'd be fine with Lalaith or Inzil. It seems disingenuous that you'd then try to use that as evidence today that you didn't want Inzil lynched.

Kuruharan

11-02-2016, 04:05 PM

However, at the time you quasi-voted, the votes stood thusly

You are continuing with your transparent attempts to twist my words. I in no way quasi-voted. When I voted I flat out stated that I wanted Lalaith lynched yesterDAY.

There are three wolves, therefore, I am allowed to suspect more than one person at a time.

We are, however, only allowed to lynch one person at a time. So I have to make a choice about which potential candidate to support at any one time, based on factors such as the intensity of my belief in their guilt and the likelihood of my vote tipping the scales toward lynching the candidate I feel most strongly to be guilty.

For the record, a quasi-vote looks like this...

++Lottie 4 Rep

I'd go with Lommy or Boro, at this point. Outside shot at Inzil, I suppose, but the first two (mostly after Lommy's most recent spin on things I've done).

Talk about wishy-washy...

It seems disingenuous that you'd then try to use that as evidence today that you didn't want Inzil lynched.

Inzil might have been bad...and given that we've lynched him I hope he was!

What I object to is your implication that my alleged support of lynching Inzil yesterDAY, an allegation that is not backed up by the easily examined facts, is somehow indicative of my participation in some elaborate and torturous plot to deceive the Ward and win the game as a wolf.

What I pointed out was that your assertion fell flat on its own merits.

Shastanis Althreduin

11-02-2016, 04:06 PM

I suppose another good question would be, why would a Borowolf use his vote on the cleared innocent Lottie so early on in the day, when the game hinges on a single vote (assuming an innocent Inzil)?

Well, voting anyone but Lottie at this stage is silly. Although he did try, early on, as has been pointed out. Regardless, look at who Lottie has suspected today - Lalaith and myself, for the most part. Whereas Lommy and Kuru are basically given a pass - it's a reasonable assumption to think she'd continue going after Lalaith and I today and leave his packmates alone.

Shastanis Althreduin

11-02-2016, 04:14 PM

You are continuing with your transparent attempts to twist my words. I in no way quasi-voted. When I voted I flat out stated that I wanted Lalaith lynched yesterDAY.

I'm not twisting anything. You're overreacting a bit, I'm afraid. Each time I've used the phrase "quasi-vote", I've used it to mean the vote that we would cast if we were voting traditionally. In which case your "vote" for Lalaith was a "quasi-vote" - because you didn't have to adhere to it.

My own quasi-vote was in no way "wishy-washy", either - Lommy had very recently acted in a way which made me suspect her and I'd suspected Boro based purely on process of elimination. Inzil was there purely because I thought Lalaith looked better, and they were the two on the chopping block, but I specifically put him last. How is that "wishy-washy"?

What I object to is your implication that my alleged support of lynching Inzil yesterDAY, an allegation that is not backed up by the easily examined facts, is somehow indicative of my participation in some elaborate and torturous plot to deceive the Ward and win the game as a wolf.

I think I've already pointed out that your support of Inzil's lynch was something more than "alleged". Yes, you ended up plus-plusing Lalaith, but you did so in a manner that shifted responsibility for the eventual choice entirely off of you and you made it patently clear that you were okay with either candidate.

Kuruharan

11-02-2016, 04:15 PM

Anyway, as entertaining as this is, we are reaching voting time.

Since, Heaven Knows, I wouldn't want to be accused of quasi-voting, I'd like to be able to make all my votes clearly and in one post.

As I said at the start of the DAY, I think both Shasta and Lalaith are wolves.

It seems like Lalaith is on quite a number of people's suspicion lists so can we accumulate enough votes to tell our Rep to lynch her?

Kuruharan

11-02-2016, 04:22 PM

I'm not twisting anything. You're overreacting a bit, I'm afraid. Each time I've used the phrase "quasi-vote", I've used it to mean the vote that we would cast if we were voting traditionally. In which case your "vote" for Lalaith was a "quasi-vote" - because you didn't have to adhere to it.

Fair enough. I interpreted that you meant the phrase as a short hand for implying that I was not being clear in who I wanted to see lynched yesterDAY.

My apologies on that.

My own quasi-vote was in no way "wishy-washy", either - Lommy had very recently acted in a way which made me suspect her and I'd suspected Boro based purely on process of elimination. Inzil was there purely because I thought Lalaith looked better, and they were the two on the chopping block, but I specifically put him last. How is that "wishy-washy"?

It is wishy-washy because you did not state one specific preference for yesterDAY's lynch.

Again, we can only lynch one at a time and one of the first things I said in this game is that...

2) We cannot trust the intentions of the representative! This is a vital point to establish. The Ward must make clear to the representative the appropriate target selection. The only way to hold the representative accountable is if the target is clear and then punish them if they deviate from the Ward's will.

I was adhering to my own principles.

I think I've already pointed out that your support of Inzil's lynch was something more than "alleged". Yes, you ended up plus-plusing Lalaith, but you did so in a manner that shifted responsibility for the eventual choice entirely off of you and you made it patently clear that you were okay with either candidate.

No. That's just a lie. I wanted Lalaith lynched, still do, in fact. I voted that way.

Shastanis Althreduin

11-02-2016, 04:23 PM

"Quite a number"? That's stretching things just a tad, don't you think? Lottie has said she suspects Lal, that's true, and Lal shows up on Legate's list as well... but Legate has said he thinks Boro a more likely wolf, Lommy doesn't appear to suspect Lalaith much at all and seemed to come down on the side of suspecting Boro (distancing, in my own opinion, but based purely on what's been said today...), and I think my feelings on Boro vs. Lalaith are pretty clear at this point.

So why you'd continue to push Lalaith over Boro when the facts clearly show that more people suspect Boro escapes me.

Loslote

11-02-2016, 04:24 PM

Shasta, I disagree so strongly with your interpretations of what's been going on that it's almost like we're playing totally different games. :confused:

I do think the wolves *need* to attack at least one of Legate or Kuru toDay, simply because of the way the numbers currently stand. If all three of Legate, Kuru, and I are out of the running for the lynch toDay, then that leaves only four people - Lommy, Lalaith, Boro, and Shasta. We have between three and two wolves in those four people, depending on Zil's alignment. The chances of us hitting a wolf are really very good so long as we stick to only these four people. If we suddenly expand that to include Legate and Kuru, then our chances go way down. So I'm very suspicious of the people trying to cast suspicion on either of those two - yesterDay it was mostly on Legate, toDay it seems to mostly be on Kuru, but both Days the suspicion was flaky and unsubstantiated.

I feel much worse about Shasta following his attacks on Kuru and Boro toDay, both because of the potential motivation behind the attacks and the manner of the attacks themselves. He seemed almost desperate to swing the momentum back against Kuru, and kept picking at little things like why Boro didn't vote yesterDay (which made sense to me, he didn't have enough time to read through properly and didn't think he had a good idea of who might be guilty yet) or why Kuru didn't want to lynch Boro toDay despite suspecting him (again, makes perfect sense, we have targets that deserve higher lynching priority). I would put Shasta at the top of my list toDay.

Edit: xed since Shasta's #244