How many forum members?

[Mhoram]

On October 18, 2001 the Barrow-Downs forum hit 500 members. At the time of this post, only five months later, there are over 2,300.

This gave me an idea for a little game. You make your guess at how many members the forum will have on the day The Return of the King hits theaters. That's about 20 months from now. Some time in the next couple months we'll close the thread and lock the guesses until the day is nigh. (After all, as we get closer it will get easier and easier to guess and that isn't fair.)

So make your guesses and hold your breath as we wait to find out who the bigger winner will be!

P.S. You can change your bid as many times as you like up until the thread is locked, but we won't announce when that will be. So you can't try to wait around until the day before it gets locked, because you won't know why that will be.

[ April 01, 2002: Message edited by: Mhoram ]

[LadyArwen]

That's quite a good idea, Mho.
But The Return of the King comes out not far off two years from now. If we lock it sometime in between, let's say the end of this year, the winner is either going to have to be a mathematical genius or a pretty wild guesser.
Maybe we could make it The Two Towers?
Also, the movies come out on different dates in different countries. We'll have to make the date for checking all the guesses the date that TT comes out, in a particular country.

Good idea, Mho! You deserve a pat on the back. smilies/wink.gif

-LadyArwen

[Mhoram]

No, no, it's just for taking a stab at it and whoever is the closest(over or under) wins.

[Lush]

Wins what, though? That would be my question.
"...I should like to know about risks, out-of-pocket expenses, time required and remuneration, and so forth..."
I'll never get into a game until I know what I will get out of it! Perhaps there is some Baggins in me after all... smilies/biggrin.gif

[LadyArwen]

Ok, I see now. You'll have to present the idea to one of the ops, though, as we need a prize ...
smilies/smile.gif

-LadyArwen

[Lush]

I would nominate a lock of my hair, but am too greedy. smilies/wink.gif
How about a lock of LadyArwen's hair? Or Jimmy Page's? Can you get it for us, Mho?

[Orald]

My guess is that BD will be closed because it won't have enough bandwidth by then. But before it ends up shutting down, my guess is 7001.

I tacked on the 1 so it wouldn't look like too round of a number.

[Marileangorifurnimaluim]

Nah, Durelen, you've just watched the 'Price is Right' too often! (Or I have..) smilies/biggrin.gif

[Glenethor]

Lush

You crack me up... smilies/wink.gif

I'd predict that the rate will drop off a bit through the summer, and then rebound again leading up to the release of TTT. And that pattern will repeat t a lesser degree by the time of RoTK. Hoom...This is a hasty decision...but I'd say around 5,800 by RoTK. You must also bear in mind that a large percentage may just register and make only a few posts, if any (unlike me, who's got this many by just jabbering) smilies/wink.gif.

In any case, bandwidth is something that may have to be addressed, but it isn't really that expensive these days...25 gigs bandwidth and 2 gigs storage per month would likely see the BD through the expansion. The main issue will likely be the management of the number of threads, which can affect the operating efficiency of the UBB software.

[ April 01, 2002: Message edited by: Glenethor ]

[Belsirithil]

Ah, but you see... Like another popular Tolkien site, this one may clean out the system of folks who don't visit often enough. But if that doesn't happen, I must make a guess... smilies/wink.gif

Oh, I don't know... I'll be the wild guesser if I get this near right because I'm not doing any math today! smilies/eek.gif Say, 6500, I suppose...

[HerenIstarion]

10467

[ElfRayor]

why do you say its going to close?
well mho does it have to be exsactly?
i think it can be a bit hard....
i think it can be the closest to it? smilies/biggrin.gif smilies/evil.gif

[Belsirithil]

Zones, that's what Mho said... It is the nearest one, not exactly...

[Mhoram]

Right now it's just for fun, maybe there will be a prize when the time gets closer but it shouldn't matter. smilies/smile.gif

[Shadowfax Clawson]

One could assume that the graph for members (me an my mathematical/analytical mind, here I go again) would look something like an extension on a bell curve, with the sharp increase due to release of the movies (as I have noticed a trend directly variant to the release of the movie) and leveling off for a while until another sharp increase. As for a guess, I'm afraid I'd have to overanalyze too much data to come up with too vague an estimate. (I've also written one of the most comprehensive guides by a student for picking a winner of a horserace, based entirely on Boulean Algebra and statistics). In this case, I'll just take a wild guess: 9,268. We'll see, I suppose. Sure hope the Durelen's prophecy doesn't come true!

[ April 01, 2002: Message edited by: Shadowfax Clawson ]

[zifnab]

My guess for memebers by the time ROTK hits the theater.

1. 6,876 members.

2. 11 members that have the letter "z" in the beginning of their nick.

3. 2,876 nicks that have some something to do with Legolas, Bloom, or Mirkwood.

4. 4,897 members that have to long of signatures.

5. 2,768 members that you only see post a few times.

6. 1, 008 members that will have interesting posts/thoughts and ideas.

7. 567 members that will request to be a room operator.

8. 3 actors from the movies. Or had something to do with the movie.

9. 87 more "acid trip" pictures under there nicks.

10. 1 member with a nick that has something to do with the A-Team.
http://www.plauder-smilies.de/person/mrt2.gif

[ April 11, 2002: Message edited by: zifnab ]

[Lush]

Ah, good zif, you're funn-ee! And congratulations on reaching 300 posts (of which most, if not all, are highly entertaining, informative, or both). I shall make no guesses today, because thinking mathematically on my day off is against my credo.

[ElfRayor]

yes congrats to zifnab!
i did not think there coud be soooooo many members......
and the list was cool!
did you do it with calculator? ¬_¬
lol! smilies/biggrin.gif smilies/evil.gif

[Orald]

Closest to it without going over. smilies/wink.gif maril

[Rinurion]

On the basis that most of the people who would ever enjoy this site would have been picked up by the first movie, im gonna go on the low side. 4728 smilies/smile.gif
Although i dont see why anyone wouldnt enjoy the barrowdowns smilies/wink.gif

[ April 01, 2002: Message edited by: Rinurion ]

[Mhoram]

Closest to it without going over. maril

Lets not confuse people! smilies/tongue.gif


Closest, over or under, doesn't matter.

[Belsirithil]

Okay, I've thought of all of your ideas, folks, but which is true?!?! smilies/eek.gif

[Sharkû]

Just FYI, if the growth rate from only inbetween the two above mentioned dates stays exactly the same, we'll end up with almost 8,500. Not taking into account that it took the forum from May 00 to October 01 to get 500 members.

[ April 01, 2002: Message edited by: Sharku ]

[Mhoram]

After much consideration I throw caution to the wind and guess 8,250

[ April 11, 2002: Message edited by: Mhoram ]

[Sharkû]

Some more stats to scare the bejeesus out of those that pay the servers smilies/wink.gif

New members last week:
Mon 25: 19
Tue 26: 17
Wed 27: 23
Thu 28: 22
Fri 29: 15
Sat 30: 22
Sun 31: 15
ave: 19

The math: 627 days until ROTK (maybe one or two more or less). At yesterdays rate, we'll end up with about 11,700; at last week's average rate it'd be around 14,000. For the total to end up with only 5 or 6k, the rate would have to drop from 15 to 5.

My guess?
11,000. We have seen that one new member often brings friends after him/her; the snowball system.... and cautious me didn't even take that into account.

[ April 01, 2002: Message edited by: Sharku ]

[pennhothwen]

and my guess is...... 7,443
for no real reason, i just can't imagine any way of really calculating it, so there's my wild guess. smilies/smile.gif and i sure hope the BD is still around!!!!
good one zif, lol smilies/biggrin.gif

[Bruce MacCulloch]

9,242
I worked that out with a careful scientific system of closing my eyes and hitting four numbers on my nymberpad, then putting the highest one first. http://www.plauder-smilies.de/happy/bdent.gif

[Nevtalathiel]

7,634 because its the first reasonably large number without being too big which popped into my head!

[Telchar]

I wote 10.007 - because it's the closest Prime to 10.000 - and The Barrowdowns can NEVER BE DIVIDED !!! smilies/biggrin.gif smilies/biggrin.gif smilies/biggrin.gif

[Dwarin Thunderhammer]

I'm going to go with an outlandish 12,000 just for fun! As an editorial note, imagine iff all the CURRENT members actually posted on a regular basis. Now imagine if they all had something insightfulll or interesting to say, interesting eh? Right now would estimate we only have about 100 regular posters.

[ElanorGamgee]

I'm guessing 5,500 members by Christmas 2003.

[Eärendil]

I guess...7824.

[dragongirlG]

8,000.

[Ahanarion]

Here's my two cents.

Liberal Estimate: 11,129.25
Conservative Estimate: 8,600
Average of the two a.k.a. The one I'm gonna keep: 9,864.625

[Rimbaud]

7315

Seven is the highest of all numbers.
Three also has vast significance numerically and is the most popular 'lucky number'.
Fifteen is my lucky number, and its constituent parts 1 and 5 and very important both religiously and with reference to numeracy.

Oh, ok, I just picked them randomly...but you already knew that, right?

[QuickSlash]

I'll take a guess at... 9,764. I want it high, but not too high, since there are only so many Tolkien enthusiasts out there. If I took out all the people who are just here to drool over an actor (/actress), though, I'd say 4,365. smilies/biggrin.gif

[Nevfeniel]

14! Just kidding. smilies/eek.gif Maybe 8,950. Just my random thoughts, though.

[Niere-Teleliniel]

7,278.7 (and there is a reason...)

[Starbreeze]

I will guess at 10600. Totally ramdom but taking into account all of the other guesses.

[Sharkû]

Three weeks should be enough for making guesseses, so in purest scientific spirit, I'll close this thread now (before you can see that all our guesses may go awry) smilies/smile.gif

2682 members at the time of this post, btw.

On second thought, no need to close it, just all estimates beyond that point are invalid.

[ April 21, 2002: Message edited by: Sharku ]

[ArwenBaggins]

i guess 8,641.5

Random guesser here

[Mhoram]

************************************************** *
************************************************** *
************************************************** *

NOTICE - NOTICE - NOTICE

The time for guessing has passed! Now we just sit back, chat, watch, and wait. No futher guesses will be considered, sorry if you missed your chance.

AND

Any above guess post that is shown as having been editted after April 21st, 2002 will not be considered. Do not try to get tricky, you are stuck with the guess you have or none at all.

************************************************** *
************************************************** *
************************************************** *

[Mhoram]

Just an update: Exactly 4 months after the initial post of this thread, the forum has grown from 2300 to nearly 3800, a gain of 1500 members.

[the phantom]

My guess is 10000. I don't know why.
Also, I don't think the prize for the winner was ever settled on. How about a date with Lush?

PS I think I should be allowed to guess because I wasn't even a member when the guessing was over. I probably won't win anyway.

[ August 02, 2002: Message edited by: the phantom ]

[Telchar]

Mhoram Said:
The time for guessing has passed! Now we just sit back, chat, watch, and wait. No futher guesses will be considered, sorry if you missed your chance.

Aww Mho thats a shame. I was going to change my guess to 6.000 too many!

[The Green Ringwraith]

5,250

[Lady_Báin]

hahaha you can't stop me i guess 7,865 hahaha

but hmmm thats interesting.... the topic was not closed as stated so who ever wants to can make a guess interesting....hmmm...

[ August 02, 2002: Message edited by: Lady_Báin ]

[Telchar]

See what I mean?

[Mhoram]

They can guess if they want, but the only ones that really count are from before April 21, 2002. Like I said, if people can guess and guess whenever they want, it totally throws out the point, as getting closer to the mark makes the guesses easier.

[Elenna]

No matter how big this forum gets, here will be the amount of people with a) knowledge and b) something to say.

TOO BLOODY FEW!!!!

Same goes for RPers who are willing to play something besides Elven shieldmaidens.

[Ithaeliel]

Too true.

Anyway, if I could guess, I'd have to say around 3800 now.

BUT I WASN'T EVEN REGISTERED ON APRIL 21ST!!!

[Davin]

Hmm....I think that I will go with 8011

What do I get if I win, a DVD pack of all three movies??

smilies/biggrin.gif

[ August 06, 2002: Message edited by: Davin ]

[Ithaeliel]

You get the satisfaction of knowing you are a good guesser. smilies/tongue.gif Congrats!

[Orald]

It is already halfway to the number i predicted. Soon, very soon, the forum will come crashing down in a hellish inferno, or not.

[Mhoram]

You could pay BW to periodically delete one-post members in order to keep the number closer to your guess smilies/smile.gif

[Mhoram]

Update time. Here are some stats.

*rounding up one day to the next month*

April 2002: 2300 members
August 2002: 3800 members
November 2002: 4800 members

the number of members more than doubled in 7 months, wow.

about 14 months until ROTK is released in theaters

so at the pace above, there will be 9800 members at that time. We shall see.

Sharku feel free to correct me if my math is fuzzy anywhere smilies/smile.gif

[Dwarin Thunderhammer]

Hey, I realized I have the highest guess, so if the number goes over 12,000 I automatically win wohoo!

[Mhoram]

This isn't the price is right, closest over or under, so don't count your winnings yet. Quickslash guessed 9764, so if the rate from the past 7 months were to substain itself, he'd be almost dead on.

Edit: Wait, I see, you're right, if it were over 12,000 you would be the closest no matter what. doh.

[ November 27, 2002: Message edited by: Mhoram ]

[White gold wielder]

Since admin until now has never deleted members who have never posted, it will pretty much invalidate this entire contest.

When registering, your password is sent to your email address. If you mistyped or used a bogus email, your password will never get to you, thus you can never post. Unless admin intervenes, that username is in limbo forever.

Some people like to register their handle in every forum they can just to stake their claim, even if they never plan to post there. Banned members can register with profane names just so it appears on the forum summary and they can get they petty revenge. Novice users often use an incorrect email address, only to register multiple times before they get it right. Some lame people just register and then forget all about the site and simply never come back.

Since anyone can register as many times as they want with bogus emails, the totals can get padded quickly. A couple people can add over a hundred bogus members in an hour with a minimal effort. A few losers with a free weekend can jack it up significantly!

The only way to prevent bogus registrations is to ask admin to remove them.

In my own admin duties, I remove any members who haven't made their first post a month after registering. Once they post once, I know they are a valid user and they are in for life.

There are probably hundreds of bogus members now. If admin were to remove them, it might seriously change the growth curve and I'm sure everyone would change their guess!

[Mhoram]

Not even a nod of reconition to a fellow Steven Donaldson fan? You know he's working on the Final Thomas Covenant Chronicals? He's already done some public reading. Linden Avery is in it for sure, and most likely the Unbeliever himself. Can't wait.

[Sharkû]

Have no fear, even with the reduction of the actual member number we have undertaken, the contest can still perfectly work, since the 'internal' UBB number counts registrations, not actual current members. We will just have to use that number then for judging the winner (me).


Quick update: New members on:

11/25: 9
11/26: 19
11/27: 8
11/28: 5
11/29: 9
11/30: 10
12/1: 12
total: 72

[ December 02, 2002: Message edited by: Sharkû ]

[The Barrow-Wight]

If you look at the NEWEST MEMBER on the front page and click that person's name, you'll see their registration (Member) number.

We are now at 5111

[Galadrie1]

So.... Who won?

[The Barrow-Wight]

I have no idea.

[Rimbaud]

Still waiting for ROTK to hit theatres, Galadrie1. Last member number that I saw was 6437. There are eleven or so months to go. If there are 878 new members in that time, I'll have been spot on. Um. Oh well.

[ February 05, 2003: Message edited by: Rimbaud ]

[Galadrie1]

Oops, sorry, I thought it was only until TTT. smilies/rolleyes.gif

[ February 05, 2003: Message edited by: Galadrie1 ]

[The Saucepan Man]

I only joined less than a month ago, and ther's already about 700 new Members since then. smilies/eek.gif

Just wanted to check. Does anyone know if there's a capacity limit or anything, or can the BD just go on accumulating new Members ad infinitum?

[Mhoram]

Well here we are, one year anniversary of the original post for this thread. Here are the stats:

October 18, 2001 - 500 members.

March 31, 2002 - 2,300 members.

July 31, 2002 - 3,800 members.

October 31, 2002 - 4,800 members.

March 31, 2003 - 7,273 members.

In 12 months, the number of members has more than tripled. There are a little less than 9 months remaining until ROTK hits theaters. At the rate of growth for the past 12 months the number of members would just break 11,000. Guess what number Sharku picked? 11,000. smilies/eek.gif

9 months and the winner of our little game shall be known.

[HerenIstarion]

10467 was my guess. It will bring me the prize [mad laughter]

[Eärendil]

7308 is the number of the newest member.
And thinking that it is more than 8 months left...I will not win. *sniff*
I was *so* sure I would win I was already celebrating! smilies/wink.gif

[Mhoram]

Alright, yet another update. Just under 3 months to go till the Dec. 17th release of ROTK. Here are the stats:

October 18, 2001 - 500 members.

March 31, 2002 - 2,300 members.

July 31, 2002 - 3,800 members.

October 31, 2002 - 4,800 members.

March 31, 2003 - 7,273 members.

Sept. 26, 2003 - 9,115 members.


And, unless I overlooked someone, here are those that still have a chance to win:

Bruce - 9,242
QuickSlash - 9,764
Ahanarion - 9,864
Telchar - 10,007
HI - 10,467
Starbreeze - 10,600
Sharku - 11,000
Dwarin - 12,000

It's really going to come down to the wire, good luck to all.

**P.S. On a personal side note, I think you may again see me around here on a regular basis starting early November. That includes the chat. I look foward to catching up with everyone. -Mho**

[HerenIstarion]

I told you that pillow you distribute as a prize will be mine smilies/evil.gif

[HerenIstarion]

as for today, the newest fellow (Buldolf) in the right upper corner bears number 9386 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_profile&u=00009386)

[HerenIstarion]

Live update:

9523 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_profile&u=00009523)

[Mhoram]

One month left update: 9580

Our game that started 19 and a half months ago is almost over.


Still in the hunt:

QuickSlash - 9,764
Ahanarion - 9,864
Telchar - 10,007
HI - 10,467
Starbreeze - 10,600
Sharku - 11,000
Dwarin - 12,000

[HerenIstarion]

we'll end up tough, I reckon

live update:9692 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_profile&u=00009692)

[Mhoram]

One week left!!

Update: 9770

Ahanarion - 9,864
Telchar - 10,007
HI - 10,467
Starbreeze - 10,600
Sharku - 11,000
Dwarin - 12,000

Ahanarion looks like a lock unless we have a huge burst of new members. No cheating Telchar smilies/biggrin.gif

[Mhoram]

*************************************************
The time has come to announce a winner!


Here are the stats:

October 18, 2001 - 500 members.

March 31, 2002 - 2,300 members.

July 31, 2002 - 3,800 members.

October 31, 2002 - 4,800 members.

March 31, 2003 - 7,273 members.

Sept. 26, 2003 - 9,115 members.

Nov. 18, 2003 - 9,580 members

And finally, our newest member:

PrincessOfMirkwood
Ghostly Wanderer
Member Number: 9,848

And the winner is....


Ahanarion! With an amazingly close guess of 9,864! The game started March 31, 2002, 20 and a half months ago, what a guess!

Congratulations Ahanarion, you are the object of envy by all!

Well, it was a long and somewhat amusing game, I thank everyone for their participation. Enjoy the movie and merry christmas everyone!

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Moonmaid, member Nr. 10,000 registered today - congratulations!

[HerenIstarion]

I still feel I have won this sofa in a sense, you know. Remember my guess - it was 10,400. Today's newest member proudly bears 10,428 on her coat of arms, another thing being that RoTK was shown on January 22 in Georgia. I should have made show latitude correction smilies/tongue.gif