I think it was actually a pretty good trap. Accuse somebody in a seerish way, and if you're right, have the wolves come for you and take one down. Bonus points if the wolf that goes down with you isn't the one you accused, since the accused one would sure be toast the next day.

And Shasta, I can't decide how I feel about you either. And you're not the only one, unfortunately.

As per usual, I have one person I don't want to execute (Greenie) and I'm okay...

Hmm.

More specific.

Form and Kath are probably my top two choices for execution; Form is my own pick because of the traction thing, while Kath is more a groupthink thing. But there are several others that bother me; Greenie had points about Lommy and Legate that I liked, Mac bothers me for reasons I stated already, and I still feel weird about Brinn's use of the word "risky" D1, even if I can't really articulate why that is.

I don't have that immediate flash of goodness that I got from Rikae last time, either, which probably means we should kill them on general principle. :p

Still in Pitchcobblerland, and haven't even looked at Sally really. Nilp I recall thinking was trending good, shallowly.

If I forgot anyone, I might just vote them on principle for that. :p

So your plan was literally just to avoid the lynch?

From the rules so I can get a handle on this:
Beast Hunter (1)- The BH sets a booby trap near 1 person's location each night in hopes that the trap will catch and kill a werewolf. The BH may put the trap near themself, but can not set it near themself or the same person 2 nights in a row. If victim of the NW's haunting, the BH receives a PM stating they were frozen by a horrible nightmare and could not set their booby trap that night.

Ok, so revealing before there is a NW is sensible, but revealing at all surely isn't? I can't see that Nilp was that close to being lynched toDay to then basically end up as a non-killable player. Because surely now the wolves won't go for him and so we have a useless Hunter. It's an annoyingly perfect hiding place for a wolf, too.

My instinct is always to believe Gifted reveals because what-if but I don't like it.

Oh no I misread it! The trap can be set in front of other people, too! Well ok then assuming Nilp is telling the truth, which I'm now much happier about, this all makes a lot more sense and will be a marvellously dangerous game of Beast Hunter roulette for the wolves.

Just as I went to pass the time by laying down with a book to read...power kicked back on.

I suppose the world is telling me this is where I need to be and read. So here’s to another eventful final 2 hours.

So, let's just envision a scenario where Form is a wolf and Brinn and Mac are innocent, shall we?

Who are Form's packmates? I have a feeling he's the NW and deliberately living dangerously, so I'm not ruling out some intense wolf-on-wolf.

Greenie- Added another name (Pitch) Day 1 when Form was in the lead with two votes (vs Nilp and Hui with one)
Kath - Put Hui firmly in the lead Day 1 with 4 votes, when Form & Nilp had 2. Form suggests she's a packmate of Pitch in #213.
Legate - Kept Form in the running Day 1 with his 3rd vote. Reasoning and vote look innocentish.
Nilp - I'm going to provisionally accept his reveal.
Pitch - Did some silly/bantery cobbler accusation of Form day 1, then ... conspicuously ignores him?
sally - Random looking bantery accusation of Form in her first post, then also, unless I'm missing something, ignores him?
Shasta- Form suggested he was gifted on Day 2. Obviously if he really thought so he could have said it at night. A "slip" to make Shasta look more innocent?
Put Form in the lead day 2 without comment, ahead of Nog (momentarily)
Lommy - Voted for Nilp day 1 tying him with Form, called Form her other main suspect, "Currently slightly leaning "innocent whose brain works in a way I don't understand"" To me this looks somewhat wolfy
Day 2: Pushed Form into a tie with Kath with his 2nd vote

Pitch, Sally, Lommy and Greenie are looking worth looking at, to me.

Rikae - don't think that's quite true regarding my vote, on account of Mac saying it didn't matter (honestly, that particular wording struck me as performatively dismissive, which is why I remember him saying it.)

That it put Form in the lead or "without comment"?

I happen to be oddly busy today, so sorry for the lack of chattiness. I'll still be around to vote, and I have a break coming up, so I'll catch up when I can. :)

I'm inclined to believe Nilp, for now.

How's that related to Hui and Lottie empowering Brinn?

You know guys, Nilp is right. The numbers are getting dire. Anyone too cheerful toDay... is likely not too worried about the fact that we haven't caught a wolf yet. Our seer has had two dreams. We can't expect them to win the game for us.

Touché. Let's put it this way: if Rikae and Legate had wanted to save just one of Kath/Form, surely it would have been easier to jump on the other than introduce Nog. Nog was widely suspected, but at the same time, a lot of people were having second thoughts about their suspicions of him.

That it put Form in the lead. It tied him with Nog, but wouldn't Nog still have died due to tiebreaker? That's the impression I got from Mac.

Did you read any of my posts from yesterDay at all? I mean, I questioned him quite a few times, so how you can write this without deliberately ignoring evidence eludes me. *ping*

Do you mean that Day or the entire game? Because I think I've made it consistently clear I suspect Form of cobblery at the very least.


Just saw this and wanted to get the clarification while I was thinking about it.

I'd be hesitant to jump on something like "cheerfulness", but that second is a good thought - if literally all four of them are evil together. It's possible. Is that where you're leaning, Lommy?

Form, because I said yesterDay that I'd look at him when I had time.

About Lottie - notes an absence that wasn't actually there. His spreadsheet failing him here. Could be a wolf who thought he noticed that at Night using it in the Day.

So the message here is: Voting for me made more sense than voting for Hui even though I'm innocent and I didn't know his role at the time. But therefore a wolf voted to lynch Hui. I'm not following this ...

Ah and there's the quote that I missed yesterDay and then Shasta pointed out and which I definitely don't like. He says this about both Shasta and Nog.

If I'm assuming his innocence, then Form thought Nog or Shasta was the Hunter, and therefore pointing them out to the wolves wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. If I'm assuming Form's guilt, this is not a good quote.

I'm intrigued as to why I got the vote when he'd earlier said Pitch was his top suspect.

Well, all in all, I can't say I'm finding Form very innocent looking at this point.

Nothing, just explains my general cheerfulness.

The Brinn thing was a fun joke after the antics in the dead thread last game.

I still think it's weird that you start a bandwagon that eventually lynched an ordo (when we have lynched no wolves yet) and when you post the next time you're not sorry/bummed at all but instead think it was hilarious that it happened? Like, regardless of how funny the dead empowering Brinn was (I don't think it was so funny but I was never big on humour anyway :p), wouldn't you at least have mixed feelings about it if it contributed to an ordo lynch? Especially if you yourself contributed too? That's why Rikae gives me the vibe that they don't really care too much about the wellbeing of the village.

As for Rikae-Legate-Form-Kath - that would be a pretty epic wolf pack hiding almost in plain sight. Not impossible, but I'm a bit hesitant to jump on a big conclusion like that. I haven't followed all their interactions well enough but it doesn't sound implausible.


edit: xed with Rik and Kath

Interesting.

A suspicion of cobblery is kind of protective, in effect.

Okay, fair enough. That actually works out to making your vote safer, though ... ?

Maybe I didn't. Maybe I had other reasons for saying it. Would that make me a wolf?

Actually the seer should have had three dreams by now. But that doesn't mean they are all alive. And so no, we shouldn't rely on the seer.

I find it frustrating that I'm having trouble reading many players. Formy and Pitch stick out as most suspicious. I lean towards Formy, however, if he's the NW as I suspect, then if we lynch him, he can prevent Nilp (assuming he's telling the truth) from setting a trap. But then again, a NW is always better than a non-wolf.

That seems to be the point of your post, though - if Rikae and Legate had wanted to save just one of Kath or Form, they'd have jumped on the other - but they didn't, they went for Nog. So they didn't want to save just one of them - they wanted to save them both. Which would make them all evil together. Right?

That is an interesting point about the NW and the Beast Hunter but I also agree that it doesn't mean lynching the NW isn't still a good idea. Ideally it would be great if they were the final wolf down, but any dead wolf is a good thing.

It might, though I didn't have time to see if I'd be crossing with anyone or not - just barely saw the last tally and went "no!" in my brain. But didn't want you working off something mechanically wrong.

I know you like to poke for reactions (much like our deceased Hui), put something out to see who latches on to it, and I'm fine with that on D1, but when it's two Days later and half the village seems to think I'm the cobbler for noticing one I get a bit touchy about being misrepresented. I don't know if it makes you a wolf, but if doesn't, what DOES it make you? You tell me.

I'm willing to be trapless for a NIGHT. The narration will make it clear if he's the NW anyway, and the Ranger could act accordingly.

This is what I see from Pitch on Form yesterday (and a comment after his vote that he was reconsidering him). Ignoring is the wrong word, but here Pitch is questioning Form on suspicious behavior (openly speculating about gifteds) but treating it as kind of a heads-up-this-is-the-correct-way-to-WW, not a suspicion. Maybe I'm wrong but that's how I read it. I get an overall downplaying vibe. Cleaning up a mess, even.


Indeed. Although they'll have had four toMorrow in any case (right, Boro)?

Double post?
 

Actually, being trapless and protected would be better because then you'd actually believe me. :D

Someone who would like some leads before the end of the day.

Correct. Seer has had 3 dreams so far.

Quotes I picked out earlier, in no particular order -
I’m flip-flopping like a madwoman here trying to decide if this sounds like an innocent explaining a late night thought process or a bad guy wriggling. I’d be leaning towards the former if it wasn’t for that last sentence. It makes it sound like he even considered voting someone he didn’t have an impression on rather than either of his top suspects because they were suspecting each other. This is weird, though it’s also possible I’m reading him wrong here.

Fair point, but more than half the village were still left to vote at that point so she could have figured the situation was likely to change. Also she didn’t actually add a new lynch candidate, Nilp already had one vote so she tied him with herself and Form. Admittedly she could have voted Form, too, but this would have looked pretty fishy for her the next Day if she hadn’t suspected Form previously (I don’t actually remember if she did). I’m trying to just type quick answers so I can get off the computer asap, and my argumentation is seriously deteriorating from not being able to go back and check things!

I’m not sure why not – if anything, wolves can sometimes be more clear and assured and consistent than ordos, given that they know basically everyone’s alignment already.

I wish. That would have been epic. :smokin: As for the comment about last minute voting, I admit I've been frustrated with it in this game and might have gone on a bit of a tirade there :D But I do think it's a legitimate concern - I mean, yesterDay all but one vote came within the last hour, all but two in the last half an hour, and more than half the village voted in the last 9 minutes - including the entire bandwagon that got innocent Nog lynched.

Not sure if this holds water. First-post-of-the-Day comments on what happened at the end of the Day before (the lynch, the Medium) are not knee-jerk reactions. People’s actual reactions to the events, whether it’s feeling gleeful or bummed, happen behind their screens, 24 hours before they write those posts the next Day. So you might feel really bummed about the lynch, but 24 hours later not feel compelled to say you feel bummed about the lynch. (Personally I almost never do, whatever my role – I just don’t see the point. That doesn’t mean I don’t feel bummed when we lynch an innocent.) What I’m trying to say is, I’d be wary of reading too much into that kind of thing since I think it indicates personality/posting style more than alignment.

Finally, I like that Rikae and Shasta are back and I think they both sound like their innocent selves poking around for reactions (and getting them). Lommy is still worrying me, and Mac is still a headache. I’m voting soon and unless someone gives me a better argument in the next fifteen minutes it’s going to be for either Kath or Legate.

I've got to go now. I would have liked to look at Greenie in more detail but I'm loathe to poke at someone who I know can't really be around today.

So, given the Form-alysis made me not very happy with him:
++FORM

Nilp, I'm going with believing you, but I would like to ask why Legate is your planned vote? Sorry if you've already answered and I missed it.

A thought: if the seer is night-killed the dead thread will have access to info we don't (their last dream, even if they thoroughly hinted the rest), so let's make sure, in that case, to do the fake-vote thing so they can be sure to empower someone who's voting correctly.

Nog's Lottie question (if voting for Legate was what got her mistaken for a Seer) and from here:
My reading of DAY 1 (still at page 4) has added nothing significant to my notes so far.

I forgot that was a thing, so thank you for the reminder.


I'll probably vote for Form, unsurprisingly. I still have concerns about Kath, Legate, and Mac, and Rikae's posts toDay have piqued my interest in them, but I'd rather stay on track rather than having surprises this late in the day.


Also, I'm talking on the phone as I'm typing this post, so I hope it makes sense.


x'd with my beloved Nilp

Oh for crying out loud, you do realise that this was in answer to him basically saying "Yeah, well, but what does it matter, I was only speculating?" and I tried to explain how & why it does matter? How is that 'cleaning up a mess' rather than explaining why the mess is a mess in the first place?
If you're saying I should have given more weight to this when deciding my vote, that's a valid criticism. But that's it.

But unless the seer dreamed of a wolf, how would they know for sure if someone is voting correctly? Or what if no one votes for a wolf the seer dreamt of?

Maybe if the seer is killed the Dead Thread empowers a known innocent?

The way I'm thinking, we can ask, if X is an innocent, empower Y. Or if M is a wolf, empower N.

Well, I was going to take a close look at Legate, but I guess Shasta wants to go first. :p

He posted a lot, and since it's difficult to summarize one-liners, I'm sticking to what he said about others.

On Day 1 he

says Pitch looks like the cobbler since he looked like hinting it at the wolves
says he likes a post of Legate, but still thinks it might've been wolfish
says that posts of Form and Hui look strange, and does that again for Hui a while later, and then suggests he's the NW since he thinks Hui is trying to get lynched.
says he's unsure about Kath due to difference in opinion on NW tactic
starts to suspect Brinn because of "risky"
and then he votes for Hui

What he says makes sense to me, though I'd disagree on the Brinn thing. The reason for his vote still doesn't sit right with me, but I don't want to open that can of worms again.


Day 2 he

noted that Form does not get the same scrutiny for discussing gifteds as others did.
still thinks Pitch is the cobbler
complains to me about misrepresenting his vote

Yet the day before he says that Hui is actually trying to get lynched. Even if he felt like at the time of his vote the risk of a waggon had become less, it was very apparently still there. This one does not sit right with me.

votes for Form right at the deadline


ToDay he

is surprised that the village went for Nog and lists Pitch, Kath, or Form as more likely.
suspects wolves among Nog's voters (something he didn't point out after Hui's death)
still thinks Pitch is the cobbler
thinks Form not dying makes him more suspicious and he thinks he keeps getting saved*
can't make his mind up about me since I can't make up my mind about him
doesn't want to lynch Greenie
still has Form and Kath atop his list
also is unhappy with Lommy, Legate, and me
doesn't get good vibes from Rikae
still thinks Pitch is the cobbler
doesn't know about Sally
feels better about Nilp

I also keep being mentioned in posts between him and Rikae and I'm confused about what's going on there.

Again, I can't really find any fault with the points he raises, except for where I mention it above. And while I don't even necessarily disagree, the fact that he repeats again and again that Pitch is the cobbler feels weird. There's also a touchiness to him, but maybe that's just me.

In conclusion, I'm not super suspicious of him, but I'm not at ease either. So essentially he stays in the middle, and he's just gonna have to live with that. :p


*Shasta is not the only one I remember saying things to that effect, and for all of my own suspicion of Form, I'm really not sure how valid that is.

Correctly, as in voting for a wolf ideally, but at least not voting for a (dead thread known) innocent.

++ Legate

Again somewhat meta, but Kath's confusion about the BH rules is enough to give me vague second thoughts about her. Meanwhile, I'm still suspicious of Legate for a) the Lottie kill, b) his weird reaction to the Lottie kill that I agree looks rehearsed, c) his role in the Nog lynch, d) woefulness about late voting without effort to actually change it that essentially amounts to less accountability for votes, and e) general feeling of Mr Agreeableness (sorry Pitch, I know it's a trigger word :p) or something not quite right - I recall innocent Legate being bigger on grand theories and generally giving more of an active vibe rather than mournful witness of unfolding last-minute chaos.

A quick tally

Kath > Form
Greenie > Legate

1 hour to go.

Edit: Crossed with Greenie.