Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right... so first mandatory question - why Lottie?

One observation: when rereading her posts, what stands out to me perhaps the most is her belief in the innocence of Hui, which... would not make any sense as any motive for anyone to kill her, rather the contrary (as in, if the Wolves thought she was the Seer, then big deal, she just dreamed of a lynched innocent, so?). Unless of course they took her overall fairly confident tone for Seerishness and thought they just hit a jackpot by killing the Seer after she just dreamed a person who ended up lynched. It's possible, but it's a pile of big "if"s already.

I am not ruling out that her vote for me could be used to frame me, but to be sure, that would hardly constitute as enough reason for the Wolves to kill her. Besides, she decided to vote me only in the end, so it isn't like such a framing would make much sense to begin with. Most of all, the WWs would be by all logic first and foremost bound on finding the Seer, and this would hardly constitute as such.

She indicated her thoughts about all people in the greatest length in this post:

Originally Posted by Loslote

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about Kath or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about Nog, Legate, and Lommy by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

The thing is, Lottie did not single out any person that would seem like "I dreamed of this one". Would it be enough if a Wolf was randomly mentioned in the last group? One could similarly say that any of the former group would be unlikely to kill Lottie because she would have just considered them innocent. Perhaps if we wanted to distill some bare minimum out of this, then it would be that at least one of the people categorised by Lottie in one of the groups is correct. But that's basically nothing.

Therefore I find it more likely that the Wolves would simply opted for her as a solid, fairly innocent-seeming person with clear opinions, who therefore could be the Seer. Also perhaps her remark in the middle of the final rush that "I don't really think Hui is a Wolf" was seen as a Seer-slip after all. That actually makes sense, the more I think about it.

Even if that was not a factor, however, that means however another thing - which may be perhaps more worth considering - that not only did the Wolves think Lottie a good pick, but that they did not consider anybody else a better one. Now one could probably spend a Day analysing all the permutations of this, but it may be something worth keeping in mind.

Otherwise: the lynch yesterDay. Given the high amount of votes, I can imagine the Hui bandwagon being a good place for Wolves to jump on. However, that isn't to say Wolves wouldn't have happily cast votes elsewhere, especially given the spread. Will have a break, then look at these.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie