I don't like it! As soon as I bring up some, what I feel valid, points against Menel he changes his mind but for no real reason.

The reason I changed my mind was because I found the links between you and Green to not have as much of a basis as I thought they did. I also have not declared you innocent. That depends upon tomorrow morning's analysis of your posts.

Bah.

Of the following pairs, I feel about 75% sure that one of each is a wolf.

Mormegil and.... ugh, this is what I get for not taking notes. ><

Volo's there somewhere, and I think Brinniel might be.

Haha, I'm not very good at this.

Oh! The other was Lommy.

So it's:

Mormegil or Lommy

and

Volo or Brinniel

Of these, I'm leaning more towards Mormegil and Volo. I'm really not great at explaining, though, as has been mentioned by Brinniel and Menel. I am trying though. The last run of our play was tonight, so I should have some more time to read things. :)

Well, once again I have to vote early as I am not sure I'll be back before the deadline.

I think there's no doubt that Sally is the most suspicious-looking character right now. It's great that the village has been discussing other possibilities, but since I have to cast what I believe it's the first vote, I'll go after the biggest suspect on my list

++Satansaloser2005

I've already had to eat my two feet 'cos of Rikae's innocense, but if I'm wrong on this one then I'll have to eat my hat!

I'd recommend ketchup. Especially if you have a leather hat. Now a furry one would be hard. The fuzz might tickle your throat on the way down. And that's Sally to you, Farael. ;)



Okay now onto acutal matters at hand.

Interesting pairings, Shasta. I'll look into them in a bit and see how they work out. I still have a bit of a thing for Morm. One of those things that I can't explain, but I just feel him to be wolvish. Could be the sleep-deprivation, could be instincts, I don't know. I just feel him as a wolf. But voting him both the last two days seems to be unproductive, so I'm just going to change course and look at everyone else more in-depth.

I started this post about an hour ago and then I had to run to Walmart, so I have no idea what's been posted since then. Therefore I'm leaving my post here and I'll just make another one once I've caught up.


EDIT in advance: X'd with everything since Farael's vote

Um okay, it was an hour and a half, and no one posted. But I'll make a new post anyway. Quick analysis on everyone (sorry I need to finish, or rather start, my term paper that's due tomorrow that's one reason I'm so skittish). Cut and dried, simple, to the point-ish. There's been so much stuff I need to go through that I'll be posting in class tomorrow, so expect me to vote later in the "day", barring a sudden change of plans like yesterday.



Here's my commentary. For those of you lovely hecklers who wondered what the heck I've been doing, notice that some of the content is based off their responses to my odd posts. I didn't go crazy for nothing, don't worry. :rolleyes:

Lommy: Assumed the wolves went after Val because they thought she was the seer. i can see her logic, but it seems like she put it forward a little too soon, a little too quickly, and made slightly too big a deal out of it. leaning toward innocent but that could change easily.

Agan: just don't know. get back to her eventually.

Meneltarmacil: have additional commentary on Menel's potential role in the game, but we'll go with the general label of "think they're innocent". in fact, i'm almost positive. if i'm wrong may the wolves kill me, give me a bath in barbeque sauce, and put me to bed with an apple in my mouth.

Volo: says at some point that the wolves most likely would try to frame Morm with the killing of Val. one of those "if volo's a wolf, morm is too" kind of things. other than that I base my hunch off a lot of the other posts here. in short, volo takes off on a one-post suspicion of me because of how I have suspected Morm (also my general disposition throughout the game, but I believe it to be more about Morm) and seems overall too protective of him.

Mac: no. flipping. idea. i don't know if i'm on something or if he just has no appearance either way, but either way I can't get a read on the guy.

Might: still think Might's innocent. don't quote me on that though. during the great discussion about me, posts requesting that we broaden our scope of investigation, aka pay attention to more people. in my experience the wolves would be perfectly happy to see all the attention on me, although i could see it going either way.

Morm: I've covered this. nuf said. not leaning towards guilty, but rather tripping over it.

Fea: eeks. I don't know. One post strikes me as ordo, the next as wolf, and so on (you know what I mean.) I can't make up my mind.

Brinn: keep wanting to compare her to the last game. blast. need to read over her posts again and form a harder opinion. get back to you on her, but for now leaning innocent. just read a little more, and she also seems to be for the idea of not concentrating too much on lil old me, but focusing on finding other potential furry foes. thus leaning innocent, but on the fence somewhat

Sally: that's me. nuf said. :)

Farael: in post 180, wanted us to look at everyone, not just morm. fine and dandy, especially since I THINK that's the day we beat the tar out of Greenie (correct me if I'm wrong), but managed (not on her own though) to turn the discussion away from morm. and to me, but that was my own doing. :p
Oh I remember now! Not to be defensive but....look at post 284. Says hes' voting me unless the seer tells him to do otherwise. First of all, go ahead and vote me. No problem there, just so I cover the whole post. Second of all, the seer's not going to come out and say "oh she's innocent" or "oh she's a wolf," unless I am the seer myself, which isn't likely and even if I was I wouldn't say that. So pretty much you're going to kill me no matter what. Again, I'm willing to make the sacrifice. Prefer not to, but if necessary I'll go for it. Third of all, takes my discussion of Morm and I and completely disregards it. Fair enough as I would not want myself tied to Morm if I was a wolf, but I (even being a bit of a newbie to this particular type of play) would not make it quite so public that I wanted nothing to do with him. To be honest, that was more of a setup for the tie between Volo and Morm, alas the post that never was. To summarize, if Morm does die and is a wolf, Farael wants to make sure that I look bad right along with him.

Kath: kath's not really said a ton, so I'm leaving her be for now. Not that she hasn't said anything interesting, but I'm not looking at her exclusively. leaning guilty, but more worried about other potential wolves at the moment.

Shasta: interesting posts, some stuff to talk about, but I'm not leaning either way.

Kuru: another leaning slightly guilty category not because of the contents of his posts, just because I could see me doing a lot of the same things if I was a wolf.


Okay it's 1:30am almost and I have to be at work before 8am. Still need to write a ten page paper and try to fit sleep into there somewhere. So this is where I leave you for now.

Quick summary, then. If I had to vote for three people, they would be:

Morm
Farael
Volo

in that order.

I'm voting a bit early as well.

I'm in complete agreement that Morm needs to be lynched, and soon. I, for one, am not willing to take the chance that this whole situation about Morm is a double-, triple-, or whatever-number-we're-on-now bluff. Besides, even if he does turn out to be innocent (which I'm seriously doubting at the moment), we can't afford to waste another day hemming and hawing about it. This will be the third now, and it seems to me that we're doing nothing by narrowly focusing on Morm other than letting the other wolves slip past.

I will say, though, off-topic, that I hope the Drop is the last wolf we kill. Water's my favorite. <3

++ Mormegil

Okay, I said I'd look over the Green voters and I did. Who looks most suspicious based only on their vote for A Little Green:

Aganzir: Earlier on she does talk about Green:
While something troubles her about Green, she makes no indication of seriously suspecting her until post #226. Her vote broke the tie between Volo and Green, so while the placement of her vote looks better, there were a lot of votes yet to come in. It's possible she made a wolf-on-wolf vote.

Volo: He does suspect Green earlier in the Day, but includes two other suspects in that post:
At that point, I don't recall that Green was gathering that much suspicion. In a list of suspects, a wolf would easily place a fellow wolf somewhere in that list to mislead everyone else. If Volo is a wolf, he could've easily done that, and if that's so, then Sally and morm are probably innocent. Later on, he debates between Sally and Green and chooses the latter. Now if he's a wolf, that would mean that two wolves were getting the most votes (along with morm). Green was getting the most votes, and in an effort to keep himself safe, he could easily vote for his mate and if she's lynched, hopefully choosing her over morm would divert attention from him the next Day. Still very suspicious to me.

Mac: He does list Green as slightly suspicious early on, but doesn't seriously consider her until the bandwagon's rolling. His vote for her is very safe. Still, I hesitate to suspect Mac because so far his words seem very genuine and I simply don't get any wolfish vibes from him. So in spite of his vote, he still seems innocentish to me.

Might: He doesn't really seem to even mention Green until the end of the Day when he's debating his vote.
I don't really like how he admits he's voting for someone he doesn't suspect only to jump the bandwagon. He should've voted for someone he really thought was suspicious because his vote really didn't matter regardless. Might has so far seemed like a confused innocent to me, but it could all be easily just an act. His vote alone has bumped him into Slightly Suspicious.

EDIT: X-ed with Shasta

A closer look at Menel (who along with Volo, is a top suspect):

Some quotes that grabbed my attention starting at the end of yesterDay and going into toDay:

His thoughts on Volo:
He finds Volo suspicious, but simply decides to watch him carefully. This whole theory about if morm's a wolf, then Volo's innocent I don't like. If morm is lynched and turns out innocent, it gives him the opportunity to say, "hey, if morm's innocent, then Volo must be guilty." If it is a wolf-on-wolf attack and Volo's lynched and proven guilty, then it could easily put Menel in the clear because he was right about his theory.

Again, I don't like his post in #238 where he debates between morm and Green, and then chooses morm. Still could be a wolf save. I won't quote that post since I already did earlier.

He mentions dead Rikae as a suspect here and later admits it was an honest mistake (post #319). While that is possible, he could've also purposely made reading mistakes to make him look unobservant and less suspicious.

I can't remember who else mentioned this, but I agree, he's very quick to take notice of this which I find strange.

He's way too eager to agree with Kuru here.

Okay, I really don't like that comment and it looks very suspicious to me.

He takes that comment back, but flip-flopping really doesn't help at this point.

He's really on morm's tail. He's so persistant, I would almost say that makes him look less wolfish because his actions do seem a little too bold for a wolf.

But then, suddenly he loses his boldness and changes his mind about morm, second-guessing his suspicions.

I must say, you're just looking furrier and furrier to me, Menel. :rolleyes:

Not to sound defensive? you are defending yourself, after explicitly claiming that you would not waste time on such things!

What's going on... an ordo realizing that she was hurting the village, or a wolf scared that people are ready to call her bluff?

It's not up to me (solely, that is). But if I could, yes I would.

What discussion is this? the one where you claim that you are an ordo using some neat circular logic? "either Morm or I is a wolf, an ordo wouldn't say this hence I'm an ordo" That's what tipped me that you are furry!!!

Here we go again... "if I was a wolf"... please, I believe I mentioned before that hypotheticals aren't of much use, I could say "if I was the seer I'd dreamt about you and we wouldn't be having this discussion" but I am not the Seer, so does it matter what I would've done if I had been it?

No... if YOU die and turn out a wolf, it'd make Morm look kinda fishy(er).

Look, if you truly are a newbie who thinks that people will take her for her word on this game I apologise... but it takes less than a full game to learn that, unless proven an ordo beyond doubt no-one trusts what other people claim, unless they support their claims.




And most often, the way to prove someone an ordo (or a wolf) is to lynch them.

But of course, I'm not saying "let's lynch her and see if she was saying the truth"... you've been acting in a disruptive manner for the last two days and added nothing of essence up until your last post.

And even then, it was an "analysis" post that says a lot with little substance. Ok, so now we know, briefly, what you think of others... but I'd much rather see you come up with a good analysis of ONE suspect than a blurb about fifteen of us.

So in conclusion, since only three of the "villagers" want to disrupt the village and muddle discussion, while the rest of us wants to work with what little we've got to find us another wolf, I believe that your behaviour fits more with the wolves than the hobbits.

Not that it has anything to do with....well with anything, but what time is it there Brinn? It's like 3:30am here and I was wondering who else would be crazy enough to be up at this hour besides me. :p

EDIT: x'd with Farael

X-ed with this post... I just wanted to note that I believe there is a certain degree of "sportsmanship" left in these games... No-one would (or should anyway) use an out-of-game event to further their in-game agenda. Meaning that no-one should (for example) pretend not to notice Rikae's withdrawal to look more innocent. And hey, I made the same mistake 'cos the Admin. thread did not appear bolded when I checked.

Sorry, I just wanted to say that before going to bed, otherwise Brinniel's post is fine by me. Something to chew on for tomorrow (RL... and prolly game-wise as well).

Tehee... we're on the timezone, 3 20 AM here to be precise ;)

[/sillyness]

night y'all

Farael, I'm not making those points to defend myself, but rather to show how you are indeed acting quite hairy yourself. Note how I didnt' defend myself, I in fact quite gave you permission to lynch me if that's what you feel will most benefit you personally, I just left all possibilities open for consideration. Yet again, a case of words quite twisted.

And to be honest I've played quite a lot of mafia (aka mainstream werewolf) over the years and realize that people aren't to be taken for their word. That's why A: I don't bother to defend myself, unless it is in the realm of clarification or unless I did something truly stupid or obvious, which fortunately hasn't happened to me yet, and B: I make all my posts under the assumption that I am an ordo, at least when I am such. Hypothetically speaking (I will give consideration to this if only momentarily)if I do in fact turn out to be a wolf, you will be able to see quite a lot from my posts based on the connotations I will leave behind about other players. Hypotheticals aren't normally worth my time, but to be fair and balanced I like to inlcude them occasionally.

Lastly, you seem quite a bit defensive yourself. Notice all, if you will, that the part of my post he found most disturbing was the part in which I discuss his own actions in the game? Nervous are we, perhaps, that you've left a bit too much of a trail, light and easy to misinterpret it may be? ;) Thank you for your post, Farael, as I think you've helped me clean up my suspect list a little bit. You are now tied with Morm for first place in the hairy villager competition. :)

hehe niiiiice. I think we need to go to bed. If only I could figure out how to write my blasted paper in my sleep ;)

Not saying anyone should do that, but of course it's still possible. Anyways, I would never dare suspect anyone based only on that assumption. I'm just saying we shouldn't overlook Menel because he seems unobservant and made a mistake.

Heehee...then you must know that I'm very crazy. :p I live on EST and it's 4:34am now. I'm still awake for no good reason except WW. Apparently, I don't sleep at night anymore. :rolleyes:

If I was mean, I would sarcastically turn that comment into an admission of guilt werewolf-wise, but it's late and I'm too lazy. Besides, I've had my fun of stirring up havoc and getting everyone wondering what the heck I'm doing anyway.

Hey since you don't sleep you wanna finish my Shakespeare homework for me? I need like 6 more pages on the antic disposition by 7:30am central time when I go to work. :eek:

I will elaborate on why I believe those three are wolves in a few hours, when I have more time. However, I'd like to make a few short comments.

About every single post by Sally seems very wolvish to me. She does not seem innocent at all and she doesn't even deny being a wolf! :eek: I think we should lynch her toDay, but like someone said, let's not concentrate only on her today.

Fea's post #277 seemed a bit too elaborate coming from an innocent's mouth (or keyboard), especially as she posted just 20 minutes after the deadline.

Clueless? Me? :p

That's precisely what I said yesterDay about wolves not defending themselves...

Allow? How would you have prevented it?

I think I should read through Legate's posts but it qould be quite a massive operation so I'm not very enthusiastic about it. :D I think it's odd (and somewhat worrysome) how little we've talked about his death. I mean, wolf kills are a huge part of any evidence we can get so we really shouldn't disregard them.

And unless my opinion changes greatly during toDay, I'm ready to risk a Sally+morm double lynch.

EDIT: xed with the early birds Brinn and Sally...

Early birds? I believe you mean late birds, love. ;) I need to respond to the last few posts, but right now I feel a nap coming on for at least a few minutes. Maybe if I get a chance before I head to work I'll post, it depends on how things are going paper-wise.



And again, I've had my fun and stirred the debate which I wanted stirred. May not make sense now, but it will. So lynch me if you must. Everyone knows there's nothing I can do to prove that I'm an ordo, so why even try? You'll just have to take my word for it, much like the last game, where I made quips and cracks to get reactions, and got them mind you, and got lynched towards the end of the game, only to be revealed as an innocent. Yay for me for having skills to look suspicious. If nothing else, provided that I survive day rounds I can be pretty sure that the wolves won't kill me during the night. I'm too juicy to not have stick around. :p



Thoughts....trailing....off....need....sleep....ge tting mental pictures of the werewolves playing soccer with Yorick's skull....weird....*zonks*

Okay, admittingly I've been waiting up the last several hours to take a shower, but for some stupid reason I still have no hot water, so it looks like I'm going to have to give up and turn in for now.

Just wanted to maked some final input before I go with another innocent/suspicious list:

Leaning Innocent
Mac
Kath
Mormegil

Neutral
Farael
Lommy
Fea
Kuru
Shasta

Slightly Suspicious
Aganzir
Sally

Very Suspicious
Menel
Volo

At this point, it looks like I'll probably be voting Menel or Volo unless something comes up that makes me change my mind. Sally is very very confusing...perhaps she's off the wall from lack of sleep, I don't know. But I still think that if she is a wolf, it's a very risky game she's playing here. I'd rather not lynch her toDay though; I'm just too uncertain about her right now and more confident about my other suspects.

I'll be back to read more posts later in the morning, though I can't guarantee I'll have time to post before class. But I will promise you I will return to vote before deadline.

You did not offend me in any way, that was a bad joke concerning the beginning of your first post. It was about 12 am here and I was tired and more tactless than I should have been. I'm sorry.

**

I disagree. Jumping in a bandwagon that ends up killing a wolf doesn't mean anything. And what about those who voted so late it didn't matter anymore if they voted Greenie or someone else?

Something I couldn't put my finger on was troubling me about a certain post of Greenie's, not Greenie herself. About her I had a more or less bad feeling since Day 1.

I think I'm going to take a look at Legate now - at least to see how he mentioned and was mentioned by people. A complete analysis of his posts would take more time than I have at the moment.

That was supposed to be sardonic and mean comment, you know... :p

She's playing a risky and silly game, whether she is innocent (which I doubt) or a wolf...

I just had boooooring physics lesson and the time we weren't watching the Pink Panther (which was sadly about 90% of the lesson), I was thinking about ww, mostly Legate and his death. Now - without going through his posts - I think he might have been believed to be the seer.

All in all, I have a bad feeling I keep aiding the wolves unintentionally. I mean, I was the first one to highlight Valier's seerishly comment that was probably the cause of her death and now I have an uncanny feeling Legate's death might have something to do with my observations as well. (Maybe I should stop talking at all...) I mean, I did raise the issue of he trusting me through the whole game. So maybe he might have been thought to be the seer who had dreamt of me on Night1...? I think that if someone looked through his posts, there might be found other people the wolves might have believed him to have dreamed of. Now, I'm well aware this argument sounds pretty futile without Legate's words about anyone else than me myself (sounds suspiciously convenient, I know) to back up my argument. But I thought I'd mention that as a possibility.

If I have time, I'd be very interested to have a look if this hypothesis of mine holds water at all, but for a while, I think I'm going to concentrate on presenting my case on why I think Greenie, Sally, morm and Fea were the original wolf square (for they surely can't be called a triangle, right? :D) ...

EDIT: xed with Aganzeer

Physics? Oh that must have been why I took a nap. I felt your pain.

I need to post basically just to get a bit of wits about me so I can continue writing. Apparently either people aren't understanding my posts or not liking them or something, I don't know. They make sense to me, but then again that's because i wrote them. :rolleyes: I'll go with plain English then. I'm not going to relook up all my evidence because some of it's been talked about repeatedly and some of it in light of recent posts doesn't matter.



My suspicion list: basically the same but I added Brinn. Here's why.

I still think Morm to be a wolf. I know, I'm stubborn, but it's a gut thing. He strikes me as fuzzy. Thus in my sleepy logic the ones trying to help him are either in cahoots with him or just believe him. Either way she's added just based on that. Definitely not enough to vote her or anything, just something to consider if/when Morm is revealed as a wolf. Again, I have my one hunch and can't let go of it, which isn't wrong in itself because surprisingly I'm normally right, but the problem is that Brinn isn't necessarily guilty or innocent based on that one action;' I'm just reminding myself to check into her again later.


And yeah I know I'm playing kind of on the edge this game. It's finals week next week and all so I have enough stuff on my plate. Makes it hard to put 2+2 and get 4 and then write it in a sensical fashion. So I figured I'd give the "let all heck break loose and see who says something interesting" approach. It's quite interesting actually, because I do this almost every game I play in and have never gotten reactions quite like this before. I'll have to change it up and adapt a little to better suit this particular board, but for now I'll have to use my sarcasm theory to find the hairy little beasts until my actual brain comes back

The post I'm writing will be megalomaniac... couldn't finish it now so I have to finish it later which doesn't mean soon... :(

Don't fret Lommy. I keep making snippets of posts but never enough time to actually arrange them all in order and such so that I can say "a, b, c, etc." and have it make sense. hopefully during class I'll be able to post, whilst hearing Purdon speak on and on about the Tempest. Don't be suprised if I call someone Ariel. ;)


Oh yes and for those of you from the last game, I had had that strange dream regarding the game? Well I had one whilst I napped this "morning". It was quite amusing when I woke up and realized that I wasn't really on my computer, then had to check the game to make sure that I had indeed been dreaming. Quite fun indeed. Alrighty, back to paper land, and then leaving for work in half an hour. I'll be able to post a couple hours before deadline so if you have questions for me or if I need to respond to something be patient, and I'll be back online as soon as I can.

DUH! It just hit me why Green attached herself to me. *hits himself for being so dim-witted* She knew she was a wolf and knew I am innocent, but it looked highly probable when she kept asking why I seem guilty that I would be lynched. What a better way to look good, though it does backfire occasionally, than to question why the main lynch suspect is well...the main lynch suspect when you know him to be innocent.

Shasta I don't think you guilty at the time just a bit lazy in your analysis. You are allowing the wolves to influence you friend and for that I feel sorry for you.

Brinn, this is another common tactic for wolves. They lay the pressure and make a phony case against somebody and about midday they pull out of it changing their mind so when I am lynched and proved to be innocent they can put on a false show of sadness and say something like "while I felt him guilty the more I looked and thought about it the less I felt like he was. I feel so bad". It's a good attempt at helping them look innocent. They start the bandwagon and let misguided innocents (shasta and others) do the work for them.

Day 1

Legate found (more or less) suspicious:
mormegil
The Might
Nerwen
Kuru

Legate found (more or less) innocent:
Menel
Brinniel
Lommy

Was considered suspicious by:
Volo
Rikae

Was considered innocent by:
Aganzir
Lommy
Mac

Day 2

Legate found (more or less) suspicious:
sally
Greenie
Aganzir
Kath
Kuru
Menel
morm
The Might

Legate found (more or less) innocent:
Farael
Lommy
Volo
Fea (the only one on his Yellow zone I include, as she's the only one he clearly considered innocentish)

Was considered suspicious by:
morm (based on the thought Legate didn't vote)
Mac
The Might

Was considered innocent by:
Lommy
Volo
Brinniel
Aganzir

**

If Legate was killed because of being considered the seer, it would point at Lommy's innocence. But on the other hand, a Lommy-wolf could well pick someone who thought she was innocent and say the next day "I guess the wolves thought he was the seer who had dreamt of me." I'm not willing to lynch Lommy only because of such a two-sided thing, but it doesn't make me feel much better about her.

Even after spending quite a lot of time with this, I have no idea who the ones responsible for Legate's death are. I have my suspicions about werewolves, but not about Legate's killers and their motives. I'm too tired (at the moment) and too bad at guessing why somebody died (always).

However, after all the things posted while my absence, I feel slightly better about Menel, and that's enough not to vote him toDay. Brinniel's worrying me more.

I wouldn't like risking a double lynch. After either sally or morm is dead (and that seems to happen toDay anyway), it's easier to analyse their intentions.

Sally doesn't look as wolfish as she did previously. That doesn't make me suspect her less though. She's clearly realised she'll be lynched if she goes on behaving like she did, and that's a good reason to change tactics.

I have to vote really early again. Sorry; last week of classes and I'm swamped, plus I didn't sleep last night.

++Sally

I feel like the regression back into 'normalcy' was more like a flinch. I still don't know what to think of her earlier "Am I a wolf? Am I not a wolf? Lalala." It's gutsy/stupid for a wolf and irresponsible/stupid for an innocent. Either way, not the sort of likely action I'm comfortable keeping around. I wish I had time to stick around and analyze/watch/etcetera. But I'm not really sure of my suspicions right now. I'm comfortable lynching Sal and hoping she's lupine. Even if she's not, I'd say the village is probably better off without the chaos (I know, this coming from me!).

I can't see any effort in that post what so ever. At that point the only use of such Wolf is to cause confusion. It may have been a wolf-on-wolf but just as equally it might have been a wolf-on-innocent (Except that I know that it was wolf-on-innocent.).
I'm not saying that they look Innocent because they voted for Lily. Sure thing Wolves vote Wolves, but I just suspected the other players more.

I nearly totally, because they are pretty impossible to organise in advance, because it needs the whole village's co-operation. Though if I there is a chance of lynching both morm and Sally, I'd take it.

To me you are making no sense now. I with such a serious suspicion I'd dig out a fellow Wolf and lynch her instead of an (would-be-)Innocent Sally (or morm, but Sally was more lynchable.). At the end of the Day changing the tide to get Sally lynched would probably been possible.


Farael looks much more Innocent to me now that I've gone through his posts. He has talked general sense as well as accusing in a way that doesn't look Wolf-like in the least - I'm referring to his suspicion about Lommy. It generates genuinly and seems to fall back genuinly.

About Menel I can't form a clear idea. He at the same time stays with the flow and tosses in wild conspiracy theories. I don't like either of these a lot. He does manage to make his words look more Innocent than Wolf.


Innocent:
Lommy
Farael
Aganzir

Innocentish:
Might
Fea
Kuru

Unsure:
Menel
Mac
Brinn
Kath
Shasta

Wolf:
Sally
morm

This is great! As I think Volo is a wolf this helps clarify that Menel is too. It's the approach I've spoken about where Volo gets done giving his list of suspects and finds fault in many...mostly innocents...but has to include at least one wolf in his talk but he finds him suspicious but probably innocent...classic werewolf tactic and it's a mess up in my mind.

I'm back, but I have to vote in a little more than an hour. I'll try to make the best of it.

I'll warn you now that I'm going to have to vote early again. Why is it that the second a game of werewolf starts I suddenly have a hundred more things to do?

My suspicion of Menel is rising by the second. His sudden switch from morm when popular opinion started to change a bit and no explanation. He says it's forthcoming because he hasn't analysed his posts yet, but there must be a reason for this change in opinion.

The other sudden change has come from Sally, and that's also pretty alarming. I can't decide whether it's wolvish or not though. If we had a Cobbler I would say that was what she was. I might keep judgement back on her for now, especially since Menel looks a chunk more suspicious right now.

And I want to say again, no double lynching! Lommy I'm looking right at you here. We have the numbers at the moment. The wolves can only kill one a Night. If we start killing two a Day we're far more likely to help them than help us.

Morm your initially stated reason for voting against Volo was…

Followed by…

And

And yet you never really explain why.

And you’ve been talking an awful lot about what wolves “would” do and wolf tactics. Here’s another wolf tactic: To talk about targets rather vaguely to look helpful but do nothing to get yourself put in the forefront of the action. And you seem to be doing a good job of staying out of the forefront of the action.

Why do you think Volo is guilty?

For the moment I’m willing to give Volo the benefit of the doubt because a known wolf voted against him. Doesn’t mean he’s innocent, but I think he’s not as high on the threat list as you seem (for reasons you can’t seem to clearly articulate) to insist that he is.

But I'm open to persuasion.

And I think Sally is still odd.

Okay, my analysis of momegil:

Post 22: Tosses out random accusations against Volo, Might, Mac, Kath, and Fea. Especially suspicious of Volo.

Post 60: Criticizes Lommy for wanting to keep helpful, interesting people alive. Calls for the lynching of Fea on Day 1 because "she generally only causes problems the later it goes."

Post 74: Criticizes Kuruharan for not realizing Nerwen was joking.

Post 95: Votes for Valier, saying she's too interested in keeping herself aliv to be innocent. Uneasy about Lommy for contradicting herself. Defends his comment about lynching Fea, saying it's "on principle." Says Rikae and Mac are innocent.

Post 119: Agrees with Volo about Valier looking "desperate."

Post 125: Criticizes me after I voted for him. His first point about me misunderstanding his Valier vote is reasonable, but the other points seem suspicious. Mainly, his criticism of my sarcastic joke looks like he's trying to read too much into me, and the last part about "What if I'm innocent?" suggests he wants me to make a comment similar to those that got my ancestors lynched.

Post 128: Criticizes Lommy for comments regarding her vote.

Post 133: Continues to attack Lommy for the same reason as before. Agrees with Kuruharan about looking at her carefully.

Day 1 impression: I don't like this. He starts the Day with an ill-founded suspicion of Volo that intensifies as the day goes on. He votes for an innocent because her posts seem to be directed at keeping her alive (what's wrong with wanting to stay alive?), actually agrees with Volo the guy who appeared to be Mr. Suspicious, about her, and then goes after me with two of his three statements very suspicious-looking. Not good at all. His position on Lommy is understandable, but considering that he builds up suspicion about her before the comment that really got him going, he could have been looking for an excuse.

Post 145: States that Lommy is a wolf and that she killed Valier to frame him. Also mentions that he could have pulled off a bluff like that. Mentions that the voting will come down to either him or Lommy. Suggests that the wolves probably didn't talk much about Valier on Day 1.

Post 175: Continues to lay suspicion on Lommy, claiming that she "came on to the scene seemingly screaming that Morm must be guilty!" Looking at what Lommy actually said, this seems like exaggeration to me. Thinks Farael looks good for not suspecting him. Backs off a little on Lommy after Farael criticizes him. Lists people who didn't vote for Nerwen, then says that out of these, Sally, Fea, and I are most likely to be wolves. Suspects Legate for not voting.

Post 215: Still suspects Fea, but not as much as before. Repeats his claim that Lommy is trying to frame him. "Goes with his gut," and votes for Volo.

Day 2 impression: I still don't like it. He really seems worried that few people beileve him about Lommy, and he continues to suspect Fea and Volo for little reason. I'm thinking that he may have been bluffing in an attempt to get rid of Lommy, but is now worried because it's not working the way he planned. As for Volo and Fea, he's been claiming suspicion of Volo and a desire to lynch Fea since Day 1, and giving only instinct (Volo) and "principle" (Fea) as reasons. Looking worse and worse now.

Post 308: Says that Brinn makes sense to him and agrees with her on Volo and me. Still maintains suspicion of Lommy. Suspects Kuru for going after him based on Green's defense of him.

Post 309: Accuses me of being lazy, denies ever agreeing with Green. Asks me to tell him when he agreed withGreen despite the fact that I've already mentioned specific points.

Post 311: Doesn't want a double lynch, but uses the opportunity to reiterate his suspicion of me and Volo.

Post 314: After I answer his request for quotes, he calls my reasoning "specious," but does acknowledge that he and Green had "similar suspects for similar reasons." However, earlier he claimed that he and [B]Green never agreed on anything!

Post 316: Says that Green mentioned suspicion of Lommy and Volo but never brought any hard evidence against them. Suspects a wolf-on-wolf, and accuses Volo again. Fails to mention that he's been doing the same thing to Volo, as the only "evidence" he's given against Volo has been gut reactions and bad feelings.

Post 318: Observes that Legate was supicious of him, then uses this to claim the wolves are setting him up. Accuses Kuru and me of being wolves and working out a plan to bring him down.

Post 321: Accuses me of flip-flopping. True, my suspicions were not as sure as they had been, which is why I decided to go back and read all his posts.

Post 347: Says Green agreed with him in order to help get him lynched.

Post 348: Agrees with Brinn that my flip-flopping makes me look wolfish.

Post 352: Says that Volo's statement that I'm probably innocent makes us both look like wolves.

Okay, I think this helps clarifies things. Mormegil is a wolf. He suspected both Fea and Volo without any evidence against either, probably tried to make Lommy look like a wolf without success, and then went to accusing me because I attacked him, while bringing his unfounded ("gut feelings" are not hard evidence) accusations of Volo with him (oddly enough, he sees Green making accusations against Volo with no evidence, yet he sees none of that in himself. The only evidence he gives against Volo comes extremely late, and only shows that Volo doesn't think I'm a wolf. He also tried to hide behind Brinniel, probably a misguided innocent, and come up with conspiracy theories about how the wolves have been trying to frame him the whole time. Plus, his denial that he ever agreed with Green despite my mention of specific points on which they agreed is telling.

I think I've made things pretty clear.

++mormegil

EDIT: cross-posted with a few people, notably Kuruharan

I still don't see why so many people are confident both morm and Sally are wolves. Surely there is a manipulative wolf among that group somewhere.

Anyways, I'm totally against a double lynching. Perhaps one of them is a wolf, but I don't think I've ever heard of two wolves being the lynchees of a double lynching. And if both of them are then I'll have to join Farael in a clothes eating party and eat my socks (because they're so much tastier than hats ;) ). When it comes down to it, I'll do what I can to prevent a double lynching from happening.

If there is a double lynching and at least one of them is innocent (and especially if both), I would take a close look at those who were for a double lynching come toMorrow.

It looks like we're going that route so far... we need to keep a close tab of the vote tallies toDay to prevent confusion:

Farael: ++Sally (Sally 1)
Shasta: ++morm (Sally 1, morm 1)
Fea: ++Sally (Sally 2, morm 1)
Menel: ++morm (Sally 2, morm 2)

(A tie already, ugh)

Right, voting time. I'm not convinced of morm's wolvishness. It felt forced yesterDay and now it seems that everyone is running with it just for the sake of it. I'm not too sure about Sally either, though I can certainly see the arguments for her, so:

++MENEL

As he is my current top suspect for his flip flopping ways. While I am used to this from Lommy I am not used to them from him.

I know I'm adding another lynchee here and leaving it at a tie, but I think I'm voting early enough that future votes will be able to avoid causing a double lynch.

I only had a quick read-through. Basing on that:


Innocent(-ish)

Lommy (because I find her interaction with Lily innocent and because I trust an innocent Legate)
Kuru (because he simply didn't do anything that would make me suspicious)
Brinniel (I'm not sure about her, but I can't find anything against her)
Menel (he isn't always right, but he feels genuine to me, so no alarms)
mormegil (honestly, I don't really see what you find suspicious about him, apart from being paranoid to be framed by the wolves, which I think is silly. But then, I'm almost willing to lynch him out of curiousity :p: his role will shed light on the roles of many others)


Somewhere in the middle

Sally (I can neither imagine a wolf nor an innocent to act like this, but my gut says innocent today. She deserves to be lynched for unhelpfulness ;), but that doesn't help us either)
Fea (I felt her to be innocent so far, but that feeling is waning. Can't put my finger on it, though)
Farael (is after Sally too much. Could be scapegoating, could be just him´. If she is evil, he's probably innocent)
Aganzir (I'm not satisfied with the read I can get of her, which is little to none)
Kath (same comment as above)
Shasta (Shasta?)


Suspicious(-ish)

Volo (felt fishy since day one. His interaction with Lily is suspicious)
The Might (suspicious interaction with Lily. First copied Rikae, now copied Fea. Overall fishiness)
The two also act too friendly towards each other.


PS: I've seen an all-ordo quadruple lynching once, so:
--double lynchings

Here are the people who have spoken favorably of a double lynch or at some point said they were willing to risk it...

The Might post 298
Menel post 301
Lommy post 339

Everyone else has at least expressed reservations or outright opposition to the idea...

And yet somehow we keep drifting down that road...and now have a third candidate.