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Old 11-26-2007, 01:55 PM   #1
Nogrod
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WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

Year 1429 Shire reckoning.

The eve of the tenth anniversary of the Battle of Bywater.


The hobbits had enjoyed years of plenty ever since the Travellers had returned and the Shire had been scoured. The Shire had become once again what it had always been. There was now even something for a visitor from far away to come and marvel in awe: the only mallorn between the sea and the mountains stood at the Party Field already strong and proud even if it was quite a youngster as trees go.

All the evil that Sauron had created and nurtured had been washed away from Middle-Earth, the last of it exactly here in the Shire with the death of Saruman the fallen wizard. The evil magic had disappeared and only the lesser evil of men – that which could be explained rather as the absence of goodness than pure evil itself - remained.

Or was it so?

Well, not exactly...

Saruman thought he knew what he was talking before his violent death in front of the Bag End but Frodo was right in claiming that his powers had been stripped away from him. But that was not the whole story.

Gandalf did possess the authority and the strength to strip Saruman from his powers at the ruins of Isengard but even he couldn’t undo all the evil planted in to the soul of Saruman by Sauron at the height of his powers. Small shards of evil magic were indeed left and when Saruman’s soul gathered as a grey mist about his body and was finally blown away four little breaths of the original evil of Sauron remained and immediately took new hosts.

They were small bits of evil, remnants of a far more powerful Gaur-spell harboured and hosted by Saruman. It had been the plan of Sauron that if his enemy would manage to overpower Saruman his violent death would create an army of mighty werewolves that drew power from Saruman’s soul and Sauron’s own magic, taking as a matter the body of Saruman. But as Sauron had been defeated and Saruman had waned the little evil spirits were not powerful enough to form anything on their own. So they needed bodies for their malice. And there were plenty of hobbits around for them to choose.

It took ten years for them to grow and to overcome their hosts.

The night of the eve of the Battle of Bywater draw closer.
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Old 11-27-2007, 05:06 PM   #2
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The Rules & Regulations

Dramatis personae:

Werewolves (4):
Each Night they choose a villager to kill. The werewolves may PM with each other during the Night phases. No PMing during the Day. One of the werewolves must PM the kill to me, preferably one hour before the deadline at least, so that the narration can be in time. The werewolves win when there are as many werewolves left as there are villagers – then they are just happy to devour the remaining villagers.

Seer (1):
Each Night chooses a person to dream of. The person’s role will be revealed to the seer. The seer PMs her/his dream choices to me each night. The seer is on the ordinary people’s side and wins if the werewolves are defeated.

Ranger (1):
Each Night the ranger chooses a person to protect. The chosen person can’t be killed by the werewolves that Night. The ranger plays on the ordinary people’s side and wins if the werewolves are defeated. The ranger can’t pick the same person to protect for two Nights in a row and cannot protect her/himself.

Ordinary Shirefolk (13):
Have the task of finding out the identities of the werewolves and lynching them. The ordinary Shirefolk win if the werewolves are defeated.



Miscellaneous Rules:

- The Days and the Nights last 24 hours.

- The deadline is 9 PM GMT.

- The roles will be revealed upon death.

- A double-lynch will take place when two persons have gained the same highest number of votes. Logically this makes it possible to also perform a triple-lynch or whatever number of lynchings on any given Day. It’s the duty of the Shirefolk to look after the reasonableness of the number of lynches.

- There are no retractable votes, so once you’ve voted, you can’t change it.

- There will be no clues about the identities of the players in the narrations. All unkonwn persons are referred to as a he in the narrations because that’s the traditional way of referring to an unknown (so no anti-feminist agenda here).

- The roles will be dealt with the cards and cards only so they are purely random.

- The dead players can’t post on the thread.

- No player can use PMs to verify anything they say.

- Editing is only allowed to correct spelling/grammar mistakes, to go back and bold/italicize something etc. or to mark cross-posts, so it’s not for changing the content of one’s posts.

- All players must be in the Invisible Mode.

- Players are forbidden to talk to each other about the game anywhere else but on the game thread. (And admin thread for off-game announcements.) Werewolves of course, make an exception.

- Absences etc. should be announced in the admin thread, which I hope all the players would check frequently.

- Players who fail to post or vote in two Days in a row will be removed from the game by modfire.

- The votes should be cast as follows:

++ Nogrod

(on a separate line, bolded, ++ in the beginning)


~*~

Players (19):

Thinlómien - Lommy Baggins
Legate of Amon Lanc - Legate Sackville-Baggins
Aganzir - Agan Sackville-Baggins
Meneltarmacil - Lupo Furryface
Volo - Justy Proudfoot
Macalaure - Mac Sandyman
The Might - Might of Greenholm
Mormegil - Mormegil Harrybelly
Feanor of the Peredhil - Belladonna Briarpatch
Brinniel - Brinn Burrows
Satansaloser2005 - Sally Shortbrush
Farael - Farael Twofoot
A Little Green - Lilla Greenhand
Nerwen - Nerwen Hornblower
Valier - Vallen FurryFoot
Kath - Kath Woodyend
Rikae - Rikae Took
Shastanis Althreduin - Shasta of the River
Kuruharan - Kuru Shrewthwacker

~*~

Please don’t post anything on this thread before Day1 starts. If you have something to say concerning the game, post it in the admin thread.

Night1 will start on November 28th, on 9pm GMT. The roles will be given out before that.
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Old 11-28-2007, 03:00 PM   #3
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The game begins

The Shire had been buzzing like a beehive all the day as the preparations for the tenth anniversary of the Battle of Bywater were taking place. There was no idle Baggins, Sackville-Baggins, Furryface, Proudfoot, Sandyman, Greenholm, Harrybelly, Briarpatch, Burrows, Shortbrush, Twofoot, Greenhand, Hornblower, Furryfoot, Woodyend, Took, River or a Shrewthwacker to be seen. Everyone was mending, bending, lending, repairing, faring, painting, hammering, screwing, carrying, following, crafting, planning, scanning, ramming, packing, folding, unfolding, whistling or just plain looking busy.

It would be a real party even on the Hobbit scale for it was a party commemorating the decennary of the freeing of the Shire or as it was called in the Red Book of Westmarch “The scouring of the Shire”.

All the pipeweed and ale that could be gathered from around the Shire had been stored to the newly renovated Green Dragon for the festivities and the few smaller fireworks by Gandalf found from a drawer in the Bag End were ready at the Party Field right beside the great mallorn. The flags had been hoisted and the festival stages put up. The stony roads had been polished and the grass cut, every garden was in a top shape and every window was cleaned. The mathoms were brought up from the cellars...

In the end the hobbits went to sleep waiting eagerly for the morning. So eagerly they waited for the festivities that many of them didn’t manage to fall asleep at first. But it was not only eagerness towards the jubilations that kept some of the hobbits awake...

Curious things were on the air.


~*~


The air was heavy to breathe and the darkness felt too animated even if it was basically quiet save the chirping of the crickets. A hobbit changed sides restlessly in his bed turning the sweat-stained pillow over.

Why can’t I just sleep?

The full moon stared through the window making the shadows stronger. The hobbit could see the room when he slightly opened his eyes. Everything seemed soft and fuzzy but at the same time all the things apeared to be more vivid. Like all the things in the moonlit room were dim and bright at the same time and those in the dark shadows were full of colour. It was a weird sight. And then there was the odd feeling all around his body.

What is this tingling? What’s going on?

The hobbit felt itchy and scratchy all over and finally gave in to his desire.

I have to scratch my back...

There his hand met the thick pelage.

The ex-hobbit rose up to sit in his bed shaking all over.

What is this?

Then he heard the inner voice calling him.

And he rose up.

After he had marvelled himself from the moonlit mirror for a moment he headed to the door and stepped outside silently as a shadow. He’d need to meet some others. The voice in his head told him so and that was what he had to do. That was what he now wished to do. That was now what he was.

So he was not the only one who had this kind of an experience that night.

They all met beside the mallorn when the moonlight was dimmed by the clouds.


~*~


A gentle breeze ran through Hobbitton. The four werewolves who had gathered around the mallorn sensed it clearly and shivered. That was a bad omen to them.

---
A hobbit in a cosy hobbithole stood up violently from his bed and hardly managed not to scream. There had been something in the room. Or was it a thing at all? It had been an eerie presence which had disturbed him when he had just been falling asleep... There was something terrible in the Shire. He knew that now. Something evil. But the breeze was not evil.

He had been just thinking about a certain neighbour at the time and now he saw clearly. Like he was seeing through the mind of that other Hobbit. He laid back down slowly wondering what this all was about.

---
Another hobbit was deep in sleep when he awoke to the faint breeze. He felt something calling him, calling him to arm himself and if in need to call for the sky to help him. But it was not this night... not this night.

He was totally baffled. And as it felt futile to try and sleep anymore with all the questions going to and fro in his mind he rose up and made himself a cup of tea to think and rethink what was going on.


~*~

Night1 has fallen.

Wolves feel free to get your team working. Seer let me know your choice.
Others, sleep well until the morning...

See you in 24 hours!
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Old 11-29-2007, 03:00 PM   #4
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Night1

The four werewolves greeted each other by grinning. They were in good spirits as they were finally free after the long years of imprisonment. They started walking slowly to the general direction of the Green Dragon looking for a suitable hobbithole to pick.

”Evil rules, brothers!”, said the Shard smiling cunningly as he hopped along the stonepath leading the bunch.

”Yeah, might makes right!”, added the Flame and winked his eye to the two others.

”Hey, aren’t we supposed to be the evil ones? So how can we make something right?”, asked the Breath in confusion.

”You mean... is our aim to do good then?”, asked the Drop not quite sure whether he had caught the point of what had been said.

”Of course not! Now drop it!”, snapped the Shard.

”C'mon, be fair brother”, defended the Drop while the others chuckled.

”That’s a good question. Can it be thought that an evil one could be fair? Or that he should?” the Breath asked the Drop giving him his widest grin.

”Wouldn’t it be ridiculous indeed if we all felt bad because we’re baddies?” continued the Flame trying to keep the discussion on track.

”Yeah, it kind of makes one wonder whether something’s wrong if you feel bad after killing a lousy hobbit...” the Breath thought out aloud.

”But we should do the wrong thing, right? So if we feel good when we do bad things that’s right. Otherwise we would be doing wrong – if we felt bad I mean. Simple as that.”, said the Shard now clearly annoyed.

”So which one do you mean exactly? You’re contradicting yourself... wrong is right... good is bad...”, murmured the Drop sounding a bit offended.

”Okay. Let me think this Shard. If something you do is right then it can’t be wrong at the same time. And now you say that if we feel good when we do bad things and that’s right. But if that’s the right thing to do then it follows that we shouldn’t do it because evil persons are wrong-doers”, continued the Flame trying to figure out himself at the same time what it exactly meant he was saying.

”Let’s drop this futile discussion. We have things to do!”, the Shard remainded.

”Yeah, let’s play football with someone. I’m quite good at it”, Said the Breath optimistically.

”Now don’t you start it again!”, snapped the Drop.

~*~

The werewolves reached Noggie Boffin’s hobbithole and dragged the poor hobbit out. The hobbit was frozen from panic.

”Catch the pass!”, shouted the Breath as he cut Noggie’s head with one sharp move of his claws and volleyed the falling skull before it reached the ground.

”I’ll take it, I’ll take it!”, yelled the Shard as he backstepped for a perfect header.

”This torso would make a decent goalie as hobbits go. I’ll place it to the doorway.”, the Drop explained as he settled Noggie’s headless body in the middle of the bloodstained doorway.

“Let’s see who scores!”, the Breath put in before he received the Shard’s header with his chest and passed it to the Flame with his knee.

”Watch out!”, called the flame who caught the Breath’s pass and hammered the head in from the open door with a blasting shot that blew the “goalie” with it deep inside the hobbithole.

”Gooooool!”, yelled the Breath.

”No rebounds for the defence!”, chuckled the Shard.

”Funny... I feel a strong urge to take my shirt off and run around... sadly I don’t have one”, the Flame wondered mostly to himself.

”Okay lads. One more thing...”, the Drop said mysteriously and went inside the hole. He came back soon with a can of white paint.

He made a few marks on the bloodied doorway and looked at the other wolves. They all nodded to each other and then outright laughed. They retired back to their holes in good moods... or were they bad moods after all?

~*~

The hobbits woke up after a Night of uneasy sleep but their hearts were full of anticipation. It would be the Day they had all waited for. Time to have a real celebration which meant good company, a feast of food, ale and puffing the pipe; song and dance, flirting and joking and finally some fireworks.

Gathering to the Party Field to assign the last preparatory tasks for everyone they realised that Noggie Boffin was missing. The consensus was that he had overslept. It wasn’t the first time.

The hobbits walked to his house to wake him up with a bucket of very cold water. It was a shock to to see the bloody ground and a trampled garden. The door was off the hinges and this was what was written to the wall beside it.






~*~

The dead:
Nogrod (mod) - Noggie Boffin - beheaded and played soccer with on Night1

The living:
Thinlómien - Lommy Baggins
Legate of Amon Lanc - Legate Sackville-Baggins
Aganzir - Agan Sackville-Baggins
Meneltarmacil - Lupo Furryface
Volo - Justy Proudfoot
Macalaure - Mac Sandyman
The Might - Might of Greenholm
Mormegil - Mormegil Harrybelly
Feanor of the Peredhil - Belladonna Briarpatch
Brinniel - Brinn Burrows
Satansaloser2005 - Sally Shortbrush
Farael – Farael Twofoot
A Little Green - Lilla Greenhand
Nerwen - Nerwen Hornblower
Valier - Vallen FurryFoot
Kath – Kath Woodyend
Rikae – Rikae Took
Shastanis Althreduin – Shasta of the River
Kuruharan -Kuru Shrewthwacker


Day1 dawns.

You are welcome to start the discussion. Have fun!
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Old 11-29-2007, 03:11 PM   #5
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Urgh... That was grotesque.

What was the Ranger thinking last Night, really, drinking tea. Wasn't it mighty obvious that if the calling came then one of us would die. And wasn't it even more mightily obvious that poor ol' Noggie would be the one to die. After all, he was the wisest of us all and had the ability to see the evildoers with only one glance. Not a good start, wouldn't you think? Lazy Rangers shouldn't be allowed to live in our proud village. Drinking tea in the middle of the night, phew...
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Old 11-29-2007, 03:29 PM   #6
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Macalaure is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.Macalaure is battling Black Riders on Weathertop.
My dear Bagginses and Greenholms, and my dear Tooks and Shortbrushes, and Briarpatches, and Shrewthwackers, and Burrowses, and Hornblowers, and Greenhands, Furryfaces, Harrybellies, Woodyends, and Furryfoots...

"FurryFeet!"

Furryfeet. Also my good Sackville-Bagginses, *looks at notes* Proudfeet, Twofeet, and Rivers.

I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I trust seventy-eight percent of you half as well as you deserve.

Both of which is more than sad. And worse, four among the eighteen of you would indeed deserve even much more of my distrust!

And we shall see who those will turn out to be...
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Old 11-29-2007, 03:53 PM   #7
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The Might is a guest at the Prancing Pony.The Might is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
Indeed grotesque.
Anyway, to start the discussion off I hope that all will post as often as possible, because even though I am quite the newb here in the game I do regret not voting for quieter ones when I had the chance, since they might well be wolves.
So to make it clear, if I have no real reason to vote anyone today, I'll take whoever remains quiet.
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Old 11-29-2007, 04:00 PM   #8
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Ouch. That's just....brutal. Alas poor Noggie, I didn't know him well.


Really nothing to say yet, just wanted to make my presence known to the masses


I'll try to get back here later this afternoon and check the posts, get a feel for you fine people, all that.
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Old 11-29-2007, 04:13 PM   #9
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'Ello all you Hobbits! What a tragic day, poor ol' Noggie....
I for one am not sold on your tactic my dear Might. picking off the quieter ones is always the easy answer, since they aren't around enough to defend themselves...but looking among the chatty Hobbits, is far more likely to get results. It is way easier for a Wolf to stay hidden by being loud and opinionated than it is to stay quiet and subdued.
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Old 11-29-2007, 04:43 PM   #10
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I doubt it...I think anyone will eventually leave some kind of a trace (ok, maybe not everyone, but probably anyone here) and so I personally see the quieter ones as more suspicious then the others.
I am also not threatening anyone. Just a wish that all will post often, so I can get a better opinion of who is who.

Somehow sorry that Nogrod is the mod, I'm going to miss the interesting information from him, but maybe Legate will help again with his analyses...then again he might be a wolf. (hopefully not)
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Old 11-29-2007, 05:04 PM   #11
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Hi kids.

Here I am, just got home, still covered in paint, and...

Nogrod? OH MY GOD! How could this have happened? Alas, woe is us, we're all going to die.

Now, on to the most important part...

Why soccer and not curling?

Who are these uncultured felons?

I say it's Kuruharan. But that's just an old grudge talking...
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Old 11-29-2007, 05:08 PM   #12
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Kuruharan is a guest at the Prancing Pony.Kuruharan is a guest at the Prancing Pony.
*thwack*

"Squeek"

*thwack*

"Squeek"

Hmm...I see I stand accused already. *checks watch*

What took you so long?
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Old 11-29-2007, 05:12 PM   #13
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It might be a bit nasty to say, but usually if a quiet person isn't lynched on Day1, Day2 will be more chaotic and in the end the poor quiet fellow will be lynched then just to be on the sure side as on Day3 we discuss the louder ones more. That is if the person lynched on Day1 isn't Wolf. (Assumptions, sadly.) I will lynch a quiet one rather than a loud one if I can't form a true suspicion, which I hope won't be the case.

Speak up! While I show bad example and retreat to sleep...
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Old 11-29-2007, 05:27 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuruharan View Post
Hmm...I see I stand accused already. *checks watch*

What took you so long?
I had a painting class until 4:50. Since I wasn't quite finished with what I was doing (happily and haphazardly smearing Payne's Grey where Veridian and Cadmium Red used to be), I stayed late. Then I needed to trim three bowls and two cups I threw this morning in Ceramics. Then I went back to the painting studio to get my coat and clean up a bit. Then it was a ten minute walk to the campus center, where I purchased pasta and steamed vegetables because I was hungry, then it was five minutes or so until I got to my room, where I needed to briefly converse with my room mate (and steal some of her Goldfish crackers) before she left for night class. I then checked my e-mail, ate my dinner, and got here.

Since you asked.
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Old 11-29-2007, 05:44 PM   #15
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A quiet person is not more suspicious than anyone else here. Quite often, someone who doesn't show (particularly on Day 1) has reasons that aren't necessarily sinister.

It's true, I've found at least one wolf tends to hide among the quiet ones. But usually a wolf wants to participate and be influential so they can swing the votes their way. I'd say while there may be one quiet wolf, there's mostly likely 2-3 wolves among the active participants. On Day 1, if there are several no shows, picking one of them to lynch will be a completely random guess. While I agree we cannot ignore the quiet ones, I notice that suspicions against them tend to be more accurate later in the game. So perhaps it would be smarter to hold off on attacking them until a later Day.

In my previous experience, a Day 1 lynchee usually ends being someone who says or does something wildly absurd, or it is a quiet person. Which one will it be toDay? Or can we find a middle ground for once and vote for someone completely different? As unlikely as it may be, a Fenris wolf would be nice, especially with four wolves hiding among us.
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Old 11-29-2007, 06:04 PM   #16
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At the moment I'm inclined to agree with Brinniel about being uncomfortable with the arbitrary nature of picking out and lynching quiet ones. Seems like an easy way for the wolves to thin out the ranks without notice.

Course, on the other hand...same thing could be said about lynching loud ones.

And I always reserve the right to change my mind with little to no provocation.
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Old 11-29-2007, 06:08 PM   #17
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I agree with Brinniel on the "one quiet wolf" idea to a certain extent. However, I'd also suggest it may be more like "1 to 2 quiet wolves."

There is another high probability here, though. There have been exceptions before, but usually there tends to be one really loud Wolf who manages to confuse everyone for quite a while until they figure out who it is. Sometimes they never do, which is something I'd really like to avoid.I'd like to switch gears from my ancestors for a bit here, as most of you have probably grown tired of listening to old Grampa Furryface babbling on about "Make 'em all talk and lynch the quiet ones! Draw 'em out in the open!" While this is still good advice, I'd suggest looking at the ringleaders if bad things start happening. The loud wolf is usually the most dangerous wolf, and that's usually where you'll find him.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Kuruharan
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Old 11-29-2007, 06:27 PM   #18
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I'm here. *pokes* But I'm going again. I have a thousand things (well, 8) to do tomorrow so I need to be awake! I will check in tomorrow but it'll be a little off and on. See you then.
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Old 11-29-2007, 06:35 PM   #19
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Just a reminder that some very strange things are happening in the Shire (apart from werewolves eating our citizens). We seem to have developed time zones! Over in Bywater, for example, it's already time for second breakfast when it's still midnight in Hobbiton.

I don't know what we're coming to!

Anyway, I think we need a Day to work out who is really being quiet and who is merely lost.


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Old 11-29-2007, 07:01 PM   #20
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Because a flatiron takes so much longer, duh!


I'm happy to get back and see so many posts. And on the note of whether or not to lynch the quiet people, keep in mind that on the last game the last baddie was silent almost the entire game, even to the point of almost being modfired. So we need to pay attention not only to how often people post, but when and what they post (e.g. popping in and voting in a close vote situation, appearing and making an accusation and then vanishing, etc.)
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Old 11-29-2007, 08:21 PM   #21
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I agree we need to keep an eye on quiet ones, I think it just really sucks when a person who is either always quiet or just has other priorities, is a wolf. It always irks me when they get by for so long. But sometimes getting rid of at least the ones who have no excuse for their quietness is best. Day one is always a little irksome, having nothing to go on.

I do have to work all day tomorrow, so I will be voting at least 4 hours before the deadline. I will be lurking around most of the evening, reading what people have to say, before I make a decision on who to vote for.
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Old 11-29-2007, 08:43 PM   #22
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*comes in peddling cheap answers*

I have the solution. Let's lynch the first person who spoke as assuredly they are the wolf. That means Volo is dead in my eyes.

Accordingly the third person is equally guilty, which means the Might is, of course, guilty.

One can easily assume that Macalaure is therefore innocent.

The other two that are guilty are likely Kath and Fea as they usualy are guilty.

Volo does give me a guilty feeling though

*glares at Volo's eyes trying to glare into his soul*
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Old 11-29-2007, 11:21 PM   #23
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...or maybe the first person who speaks *assuredly*...
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Old 11-29-2007, 11:53 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
And on the note of whether or not to lynch the quiet people, keep in mind that on the last game the last baddie was silent almost the entire game, even to the point of almost being modfired. So we need to pay attention not only to how often people post, but when and what they post (e.g. popping in and voting in a close vote situation, appearing and making an accusation and then vanishing, etc.)
This is indeed something to keep in mind. Mind you, the baddie in question really didn't do much to give herself away until the second last Day. Before that it looked more like she was genuinely confused.
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Old 11-30-2007, 01:03 AM   #25
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Very true Nerwen. It was hard to tell whether she was a baddie or just blonde. *can't believe how lame a joke that is*



Anyway, I'm ready to lynch a werewolf. Any volunteers? If not I'm slightly reluctant to pick someone so quickly, seeing how no one has said anything of extreme consequence yet. Maybe Stan is a werewolf. He looks suspicious. *winks at Noggie* Meh I'll just go to bed and see what develops whilst I sleep.



By the way, my apologies if I'm not able to vote tomorrow. Presentations and assignments due and all that, so I'll try my best to sneak away and vote in between it all if possible. Just a happy little disclaimer from a tired little Hobbit.
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Old 11-30-2007, 01:14 AM   #26
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Well, here we are again. Same old day one discussions - let's hope they don't lead us to a typical day one error.

I have never understood why people seem to think of day one's lynching as a sort of "throw away", which can, at best, catch a wolf by chance. In my experience, wolves are caught as often by analysis as by seers, and analysis on subsequent days is not often significantly aided by knowing the wolves' choice of a kill. I think it is entirely possible to catch a wolf on day one through skill, rather than mere luck. A wolf usually does elicit suspicion on Day 1, but is saved by one of the typical diversions: someone who stands out becomes an easy scapegoat, even though he or she may not, on reflection, look particularly wolfish.
I'm just as opposed to the tired "loud/quiet" dichotomy some trot out on Day 1's. It should be clear that such a blunt instrument basically amounts to pseudo-analysis. There are so many possible nuances of playing style, and these vary from one game to the next. Each wolf blunders differently, and there is not only a continuum between the 'loudest' and 'quietest' players, but every player who posts has the entire English language at his/her disposal, and therefore, no two posts are alike. Although it takes time and effort, I vote for carefully sifting each post, using our intuition and logic to the utmost, and actually doing some serious wolf-hunting toDay. It is not only more fun, it will give us better chances of catching a wolf now and more to go on in Day 2.
That said, I should practice what I preach! So here are my thoughts:

Volo's banter is right up my alley, and I'm not going to take issue with it.

Macalaure - This may not be quite kosher, but I talk to Mac every day and can read him fairly well, if I say so myself. He's given none of his typical "hiding something" vibes so far.

The Might - Newbie or no newbie, I dislike his "I don't know who to vote for, so I'll vote a quiet one" statement. As the 3rd post of the day, that's a cop-out if I ever saw one. Of course you don't know yet; but why set up an easy vote when hardly anyone has even spoken? As he IS a newbie, I'm inclined to view this as a reaction to the last game and nothing more -- for now.

Sally - 1st post - after Might states his intent to vote for quiet ones, she has to "make her presence known"? It shows a skittishness that isn't entirely reassurring.

Valier's contradiction of The Might seems too easy. The Might has taken one extreme, Valier the other - it seems almost scripted, and I don't like it - especially since Valier should know it isn't that simple (loud innocents seem to be the most typical Day 1 lynches.) It also continues the fruitless loud/quiet debate.

[rant]Although after the last game, quiet wolves may be at the forefront of everyone's minds, Naria was unlikely to have been caught early on anyway. Macalaure and Brinniel were neither particularly quiet nor particularly loud, and could have been tracked down sooner by careful reading!!![/rant]

The Might's second post seems newbie-ish-ly innocent to me, and makes me feel better about him.

Fea & Kuru give us banter and nothing to go on yet.

Volo is right about quiets being often lynched on Day 2 (usually after an outlandish innocent gets the noose on Day 1), but fails to mention that such a reactive lynch rarely catches a wolf either. The "talk" of "loud ones" on Day 3 is usually most productive - all the more reason to avoid posting-volume-motivated lynches, in my opinion.

Fea gets completely out of character (or in character?) and still gives us nothing to go on. Oh well...

Brinniel speaks good hobbit sense, and Kuru knows more about WWing than Sandyman does of boating. Both of them go up on my innocence-scale, however, I hope to see these wise words are backed up by some solid discussion!

Menel - *sigh*. He's so often unjustly lynched on Day 1, I hate to go after him now. However, he shifts the discussion back into loud/quiet territory while suggesting he intends to do otherwise, and I can't just let that slide. Slightly suspicious.

Kath - I always slightly distrust the "just checking in" post (as with Sally above.) Not a big deal, though.

Nerwen doesn't say anything, really. We have to work out who's lost and who's quiet? Well, sure, and....? There seems to be less content here then there ought to be - I'm not sure, but it feels like a "look at me, I'm posting, I'm contributing, lynch someone else..." sort of thing.

Sally is 100% right about what constitutes wolfish quietness. However, simply continuing this debate is beginning to look nonproductive, even deliberately so.

Valier basically excuses herself from not participating in further discussion (I will be lurking around) and establishes herself as a slightly threatening figure (getting rid of the ones who have no excuse.) I can't say it doesn't look at least half wolfish.

Morm just jokes around - nothing there - and Kuru is funny.

Nerwen - just jumping in with a spontaneous response like this tends to look innocent in my eyes, but the content, which seems to advocate arbitrary "quiet one lynching", doesn't.

At this point, Valier and Nerwen seem somewhat dubious to me, but this is very preliminary -- I look forward to seeing what others have to say and hope this post gets discussion moving in a constructive direction. Even if we don't get a wolf toDay, we will certainly be closer to catching one on Day 2, the more we analyse now.

EDIT: X'd with Stan.
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Old 11-30-2007, 01:28 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Nerwen - just jumping in with a spontaneous response like this tends to look innocent in my eyes, but the content, which seems to advocate arbitrary "quiet one lynching", doesn't.
Excuse me, Rikae. Where have I said that?

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Old 11-30-2007, 02:34 AM   #28
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I'm here, I'm here. Had a horrible night; locked myself out of the Green Room, had to call the stage manager and the makeup assistant to let me back in, turns out someone sabotaged the keyhole, so blah.

We have five (five!) runthroughs of the show tomorrow, so don't expect me to be around too much.

All I can say for now is that to me, Rikae seems on the innocent side.
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Old 11-30-2007, 02:55 AM   #29
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Excuse me, Rikae. Where have I said that?
You didn't. But your post in response to Sally's "So we need to pay attention not only to how often people post, but when and what they post"-- an argument against indiscriminate votes for 'quiet ones' -- included:
"Mind you, the baddie in question really didn't do much to give herself away until the second last Day."
And therefore constitutes a (slight) push toward the "lynch the quiets" side, unless my reading comprehension ability is going.
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Old 11-30-2007, 03:05 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin
All I can say for now is that to me, Rikae seems on the innocent side.
I agree, but on the other hand I think we shouldn't trust people judging merely by one long and clever post. Good analysis anyway Rikae, I admire people who can find so much to say from such pointless discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo
It might be a bit nasty to say, but usually if a quiet person isn't lynched on Day1, Day2 will be more chaotic and in the end the poor quiet fellow will be lynched then just to be on the sure side as on Day3 we discuss the louder ones more. That is if the person lynched on Day1 isn't Wolf. (Assumptions, sadly.)
Now you must excuse me, Volo, I didn't quite grasp that point. Could you clarify it a little?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
I agree we need to keep an eye on quiet ones, I think it just really sucks when a person who is either always quiet or just has other priorities, is a wolf.
True again. But how is it possible to keep an eye on someone who never turns up?

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Curling would require more heads than one, I think
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Old 11-30-2007, 03:52 AM   #31
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It must be! I was making the same point as you, Rikae, namely, that we could not have caught Naria in the first few days except by chance. That does not mean, "So let's lynch people at random until we get the right one!" I'm rather puzzled as to why you think it does.

In fact, I'm puzzled by a couple of other things you've said.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Macalaure - This may not be quite kosher, but I talk to Mac every day and can read him fairly well, if I say so myself. He's given none of his typical "hiding something" vibes so far.
Why tell us this? The rest of us can hardly take it into account.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Sally - 1st post - after Might states his intent to vote for quiet ones, she has to "make her presence known"? It shows a skittishness that isn't entirely reassurring.
I don't know, it seems a natural enough reaction to me. The same goes for the rest of us who posted in a hurry after this "lynch the quiet ones" thing started up.

(I notice you give all the jokers a pass, even though their posts are fairly empty of content. Why?)

I agree with you, though, that Valier is sounding a little suspicious at the moment.

EDIT: X'd with A Little Green.
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Old 11-30-2007, 04:19 AM   #32
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Hullo all! Good to be here. Now, to the annoyance of Rikae, I'm going to continue the loud/quiet talk and add my two cents.

In the two latest games I was first a wolf and then a mod. I must say I learned something of those experiences. I was, as a mod, quite annoyed because numerous people claimed they could not say anything about Naria who was a quiet wolf. I disagreed with them and I still do. As long as someone doesn't post just one onliner post per day, there's no reason to grumble about having no clues. You can really get surprisingly much out of just a few posts (as long as they're substantial) and even if the quiet person in question is too quiet for that, you can always look at how the dead wolves treated him/her (given that there are dead wolves, of course). I know I used to complain about relatively silent people to some extent, but I hope I'll manage to play according to what I said in this post, now that I've seen the light.

Another thing I learned was that I really should drop the loud & famous people from a certain pedestal I've lifted them to. I still think it's challenging & nice to play with them and it is sad to lose them early and that one should be careful about lynching them because they're great assets to the village, BUT I think my past attitude of even somewhat overlooking their suspicious behaviour based on those things I just mentioned is just a bit ridiculous. I mean, surely you shouldn't get away with anything just because you're known to be a good and helpful player?

Lastly, my tactics will probably again involve paying extra attention to those I know from RL, as wolvish as it may sound. They just seem to be the ones who manage to fool me the best.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
It is way easier for a Wolf to stay hidden by being loud and opinionated than it is to stay quiet and subdued.
I disagree. The more you talk, the more probably you make a slip or contradict yourself (trust me, I have enough experience of both being a loudmouth and of being a hopelessly poor wolf ).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
It's true, I've found at least one wolf tends to hide among the quiet ones.
Yet that might be purely chance or mod's fault. I think the quiet wolf - loud wolf ratio is about the same as the quiet villager - loud villager ratio. Also, I think that loud people make loud wolves and quiet people make quiet wolves, and if Nogrod claims to have chosen the roles at random, we hardly can divide people into "quiet people" and "loud people" and say that this and this percent of these are wolvish or something like that. I don't think classifying people to loud and quiet ones is going to help us one bit, on the contrary.

Now let's hope this discussion really starts rolling (I don't mean discussion about loud and quiet people, but discussion in general) and those who haven't had the chance to turn up, do so, and those who haven't talked so much (or so much of substance) would speak more. There's plenty of time, still...

Oh, I maybe should add a few words about who I suspect. Brinn looks a bit suspicious with her quiet wolf -arguments, since making the assumption that at least one wolf is quiet seems a bit dangerous (see what I said above). Also, I can't really phrase it, but her last statement
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel
In my previous experience, a Day 1 lynchee usually ends being someone who says or does something wildly absurd, or it is a quiet person. Which one will it be toDay? Or can we find a middle ground for once and vote for someone completely different? As unlikely as it may be, a Fenris wolf would be nice, especially with four wolves hiding among us.
feels somewhat furry to me, especially the tone of that last sentence. So far, she's the only one who has seemed even vaguely wolvish. I'm happy to repeat that fortunately there's still time, except that I must add in the same sentence that we should not think we always have tme later and because of that do nothing right now. Now that is the famous Lommy flip-flopping, isn't it?

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen
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Old 11-30-2007, 04:25 AM   #33
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Oh, seems that I have arrived just at the right time: something is stirring up. If I am to speak to the matter, I didn't see anything strange on Nerwen's post(s) and I'd say Rikae is making more of it than it seems. On the other hand, I don't necessarily think this must be a bad omen for Rikae: she has always been strange (sorry, Rik ) and this quite fits her.
So, what quite puzzles me is that there is hardly anything that would say to me "Wolf" at least vaguely. Which is a bad omen. I know the game just started, but I am somewhat satisfied when I have at least certain outline of what's going on, and often I have that even on Day 1. This time, nothing much.
And The Might, you should not rely on what other people post as much, even though it flatters me, I may always be a wolf. Try to use your thoughts independantly.
That is, if you are not a wolf yourself. You could be.

Anyway, let's add some more rant when I'm already at it. Menel does not seem suspicious to me, whatever was said about him. Brinniel seems very genuine to me (though I know how I was mistaken not as long time ago), but her post seems sensible, not forced, thoughtful. A Little Green's post seems very, let's say, genuinely structured, and if we have a wolf in here after all, then it's a wolf who tries to behave "normally". Fea, hope you will come back with some little more substance, please (same could be said about some others). Kuru seems strange, though I can't say how exactly. Maybe with his "ambivalent" answer to Brinniel.

I picked just some examples that left a trace in my mind. There are other ideas, but they need yet to "blossom".

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy. Few words on that coming, probably...
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Old 11-30-2007, 04:39 AM   #34
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Now Lommy's post seems the most calming I have seen here, also with the most substance. While I appreciate Rikae's activity, her list of people I don't really consider to be much helpful for us. Or: not at the moment. When we lynch a wolf, or when we lynch Rikae and learn that she was a wolf, then these views of other people can be really helpful. But this far, Lommy's post seems nice, and worth considering, it seems to give hope, though of course she might be a wolf and in that case it's a dead end track. The other post I nominate as good one, as I said, is Brinniel's. How to explain the contradictions between them is left to the good old "different villagers' personalities" thing. In fact, I like that - reminds me of "polemic inside the canon", which is quite reassuring. "Where there is not strife, there is only stagnation" (that's not a good life motto, but it works in WW very well, I believe).

So you see, this does not make too much of a conclusion, but at least something, I hope. Now I also looked back at Valier's post and let me say only that she seems a little getting close to the contradicting - herself edge. I must say I will keep an eye out and hopefully she appears yet (from what she says it seems she will).
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Old 11-30-2007, 05:18 AM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
I think the quiet wolf - loud wolf ratio is about the same as the quiet villager - loud villager ratio. Also, I think that loud people make loud wolves and quiet people make quiet wolves, and if Nogrod claims to have chosen the roles at random, we hardly can divide people into "quiet people" and "loud people" and say that this and this percent of these are wolvish or something like that.
If fully agree with you on this. I'm just saying there tends to be one wolf among the silent, but it does not necessarily mean it's always this way. I think it's quite silly to vote for someone just because they are loud or quiet...we should be basing our votes on the content within their posts, not by how much they are posting. One-liners or not, we should be seeing at least one post and vote from everyone. And if not, they will eventually be modfired.

Anyways, some first impressions:

The Might's behaviour, starting with the "let's lynch a quiet person" attitude does make me a bit uneasy. Yet, I'm thinking this is more likely to be newbie behaviour than suspicious.

Rikae was the first to make a truly help and analysing post. I agree with most of what she says, so I see no reason to suspect her at this point. Lommy also seems to be sincere in her first post. I get an innocentish vibe from her...let's just hope I'm not being completely deceived here.

Nerwen is a bit defensive...but then again, she was also in the last game and turned out innocent...

I agree that Valier's two posts seem rather contradictory, but I'm not sure that's enough to form an actual suspicion. But I will be watching her closely.

I don't find anything strange about Menel (aside from his name...Lupo Furryface ). And I don't intend to vote for him toDay simply because I feel bad for the poor guy.

Others I have not mentioned, I don't currently have enough to form an opinion on yet. I do not actually have any suspicions at this point of time, but hopefully that'll change by the time I wake up tomorrow.
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Old 11-30-2007, 05:37 AM   #36
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I really can't get what's so suspicious about Valier. I think she seems quite normal. Besides I'd be sad to lose her early if she hasn't lost her incredible hunches and also because she hasn't played for a while. Actually, I might say a few words on that topic. Unless she, Kuru, Fea, Farael or morm do something really suspicious or there has to be made a choice between some of them and someone who seems more innocent, I'm reluctant to lynch them today. I won't, of course, be as merciful later, but I'd be very sad to see one of them go early since I haven't played with them for a long time. (Now that I think of it, have I ever played with Kuru actually? I'm not sure, probably not.) I have a bit similar attitude towards A Little Green, since this is her first game.

Nerwen seems slightly suspicious to me: there's something in her tone that I don't like, something that tickles my radar. This:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Why tell us this? The rest of us can hardly take it into account.
almost made it beep. I mean, that's a very odd comment. If we liked to do so, we could take Rikae's word for it. But more importantly, why should Rikae refrain from saying something she feels? Just because we can't consider it a serious point for Mac's innocence? Surely we get more idea where Rikae and her opinions stand, so it is valuable information to us others? And I really think people shouldn't overlook gut-feelings, they're right surprisingly often (which does not, of course, mean always ). Lastly, by saying that Rikae states an opinion and I don't think you necessarily have to have a good reasoning-based case just to think someone's innocentish or suspicious.

Though, I'm not sure if the feel I get from Nerwen's latest post indicates she might be guilty or that I've picked up the old bad habit of suspecting people I disagree with again... Neverthelesss, I'm keeping an eye on her.

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Old 11-30-2007, 06:01 AM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien View Post
I mean, that's a very odd comment. If we liked to do so, we could take Rikae's word for it. But more importantly, why should Rikae refrain from saying something she feels? Just because we can't consider it a serious point for Mac's innocence? Surely we get more idea where Rikae and her opinions stand, so it is valuable information to us others?
I mentioned it because Rikae herself has been critical of comments that she sees as lacking substance. That one struck me as being rather pointless, that's all. She also seems to be very arbitrary about how she applies her "empty post = suspicious" rule.
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Old 11-30-2007, 06:36 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen View Post
I mentioned it because Rikae herself has been critical of comments that she sees as lacking substance. That one struck me as being rather pointless, that's all. She also seems to be very arbitrary about how she applies her "empty post = suspicious" rule.
I don't see especially that point as strange either. I can see where you are coming from, but I'd say whatever anyone says, be it only his own opinion, is worth something - at least to us others. We can later use that for analysis. Or eventually say "Rikae and Mac were wolves and they needed an easy reason why not to supect each other". Otherwise, I did not notice the "rule" you mention to be as apparent. I personally thought about that as well, but sally does that (already behaved like that the game before) and f.ex. Kath appears only to say she will be back later - now what kind of playing is that, really? - but one has to understand that. Also, this is the first day (to quote the refrain once more) and there was not much to speak of if they didn't have that much time.
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Old 11-30-2007, 06:46 AM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Well, here we are again. Same old day one discussions - let's hope they don't lead us to a typical day one error...
You're forgetting that the highly analytial discussion doen't start on its own. You wouldn't have had anything to analyse if the quiet/loud discussion hadn't started before your post. I agree that the quiet/loud discussion itself rarelly leads to anything, but it does make people louder, and thence easier to analyse.

As much as you have said, I don't feel too safe with you, Rikae. The stuff you have is not special - except for the fact that you were the first to bring up such a post - anyone who bothers can write an analysis on each post and sounds reasonable, even a Wolf. And this is what a Wolf would want to write, because quite often such posts bring followers and trust. Some players don't have the nerve not to trust anybody except themselves and it's the easiest to trust a person who makes more sense than others. I hope I said this clearly.

I agree with you on Valier. She was the first person who gave out a Wolf-feeling while I was reading through the thread. There's not much to go on, but somehow both of us got the feeling that she might be a Wolf. The "lurking around" sounds nasty and somehow I have a feeling that the ones to give clear times when they can't play are Wolves.


Quote:
Originally Posted by MeVolo View Post
It might be a bit nasty to say, but usually if a quiet person isn't lynched on Day1, Day2 will be more chaotic and in the end the poor quiet fellow will be lynched then just to be on the sure side as on Day3 we discuss the louder ones more. That is if the person lynched on Day1 isn't Wolf. (Assumptions, sadly.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Volo is right about quiets being often lynched on Day 2 (usually after an outlandish innocent gets the noose on Day 1), but fails to mention that such a reactive lynch rarely catches a wolf either. The "talk" of "loud ones" on Day 3 is usually most productive - all the more reason to avoid posting-volume-motivated lynches, in my opinion.
Here's what I was trying to say:
If people are unsure of whom to lynch on Day1 and end up lynching a loud Ordo, the person most likely to be lynched on Day2 is quiet. And probably also an Ordo - like Rikae pointed out - because the quiet/loud discussion won't end on Day1 but will continue on Day2 leading to none very thought decisions. Quiet players who survive to the later Days are more safe, because there will be much more to analyse about the loud players and Day3 -> is known for analysing and not quiet/loud discussion.
That is just an assumption based on how things usually go and I'm not saying that lynching a quiet person on Day1 is a solution to everything. All players aren't sure of whom to vote on Day1 and often claim their vote random. I think Day1 "random" votes should rather be directed at quiet players, because otherwise they'll be directed at the quiet players on later Days for paranoia more than clear thoughts.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy View Post
I think that loud people make loud wolves and quiet people make quiet wolves
Except Gil-Galad. Good point though!


Legate, you make me suspect you (#33, 34) . I know you're a friendly player, but this is seems a bit too friendly, although I too would like to thank for good posts... The feeling that you're backing up others more than showing yourself is what makes me wonder. Please, would you try to say your thoughts a bit clearer.


It seems that the suspicion is leaning to Valier. Maybe what she said was just badly phrased, but she's one of suspects too.


#36, #37: I'd trust an Innocent Rikae's gut feelings about Mac. Which isn't saying much at this point... :/


Brinniel is a question mark for now.


EDIT: Xd with Legate
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Old 11-30-2007, 07:01 AM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
Fea, hope you will come back with some little more substance, please (same could be said about some others).
Good morning.

^not substance^

I have classes from 9:10 until 12:30, so you won't see me during my morning.

^not substance^

But it's Friday, which means that you will see me after I grab lunch! How yay is that?

^still not^

Okay, time to admit: this post isn't going to have substance.

Nor will any subsequent posts today, probably.

Though I might redeem myself (insomuch as I can) as follows:

The reason my Day One posts won't have substance is because I (and I always have) subscribe to the belief that you can't learn anything from Day One until AFTER Day One.

You won't find me seriously probing posts until Day Two. After the wolves make a legitimate kill. Once there's something to go on.

There is no way to find objective evidence for somebody else's guilt in what is basically a suicide. Wolves have nothing to do with the mod's death, therefore until Day Two, they have nothing to hide. Which means that unless they're really stupid, they're not going to give us anything to go on. First day comments can often lead to accurate assumptions, but not until later. As in, stuff we say on Day One usually makes a lot more sense in retrospect.

So yeah. Today I have classes until lunch time. Since they'll be boring, I'll spend them drawing and trying to come with a decision of who is the best choice to lynch without evidence.

My choice, so you can be prepared, will probably be of a villager who has historically concerned me. Whether or not the person is guilty makes no real difference to me. I'll be voting based on my confidence in my own ability to tell now or later on whether or not they're guilty.

Shower. Breakfast. Classes. See you before Day ends.
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