Quote:
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Originally Posted by Kuruharan
I’d like to ask Fordim to explain why he thinks we should go after the quiet ones first rather than the loud ones?
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Simply because I am convinced we have a better shot at bagging a Wolf. At this moment, I am convinced that at least two of the following are Wolves:
Oddwen
Holbytlass
Shelob
Azaielia
Even without working to narrow it down a bit more, that gives me a 50/50 chance of bagging a fuzzy.
On the other hand, I can't imagine that there is any more than one Wolf among:
TORE
mormegil
Saucepan
Kuruharan
And I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were
no wolves on this list! So that gives me, at best, a one in four chance of getting it right.
So I suppose, as always, it comes back to the numbers for me: as far as I am concerned this DAY, I am twice as likely to get a Wolf from among the quiets than I am from among the loudmouths (50% versus 25%).