Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I’d like to ask Fordim to explain why he thinks we should go after the quiet ones first rather than the loud ones?

Simply because I am convinced we have a better shot at bagging a Wolf. At this moment, I am convinced that at least two of the following are Wolves:

Oddwen
Holbytlass
Shelob
Azaielia

Even without working to narrow it down a bit more, that gives me a 50/50 chance of bagging a fuzzy.

On the other hand, I can't imagine that there is any more than one Wolf among:

TORE
mormegil
Saucepan
Kuruharan

And I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were no wolves on this list! So that gives me, at best, a one in four chance of getting it right.

So I suppose, as always, it comes back to the numbers for me: as far as I am concerned this DAY, I am twice as likely to get a Wolf from among the quiets than I am from among the loudmouths (50% versus 25%).