[The Only Real Estel]

I am, like SpM, trying to review the thread right now but I do have a few things to say in response to some of the things that have been voiced lately.

Originally posted by Fordim"

At the risk of hubris I rather suspect that I might have been the beneficiary of our brave guardian's aid that night. Firefoot voted against me the first DAY, but then began to support me. And if my theory is right about the quiet wolves, I (or someone like me: perhaps TORE) would have been the obvious choice for the wolves to kill. It would have got the loudmouths all pointing fingers at one another

Although I believe I did include the phrase 'if I am not killed during the night' in two of my earlier posts, I stopped that because I began to realize a simple fact - it would take an incredibly stupid werewolf to waste a kill on me during the night. In fact, I don't think that any werewolf would waste a kill on any of the 'loudmouths,' we have all been hanging some suspicions out there about eachother, & if you draw on common sense it would be wise for the wolves to leave those innocents that are suspicous of eachother alive so that they have targets during the DAY. Also, I think the 'loudmouths' are pointing enough fingers at one another as it is, perhaps for good reason, perhaps not.

Originally posted by Morm:

2. The Only Real Estel
Again that's not to say that 1 to 3 are set and that's who I'm voting for they could definately change come voting time

I hope so. If you've heard any especially compelling evidence against me, then please, spell it out for me & I'll give you my reasonings behind what is in question. It's so much easier to give a good defense when you know you're defending good intentions & not having to stretch to cover your tracks.

Originally posted by Kuru (questioning Fordim about his defenses of SpM):

You seem convinced of his innocence. Why? His opinions are only of value if he is innocent and even if he is innocent he has been grievously wrong a number of times. Why are you so unwilling to consider the possibility of his guilt? You voted against him on the first day and have done everything possible to avoid it ever since. Estel’s theory becomes more appealing

I would like to hear some good reasons behind your support of SpM, Fordim. And it is actually SoN's theory (someone that we know was innocent, for what that's worth), I just added a few things that I thought spoke to his theory.

Originally posted by Kuru:

I've not changed my argument since DAY TWO, even at considerable risk to myself (risk that I welcomed because it would test what I said).

As I noted above, I think my consistency in arguing this says that my theory should be put to the test.

He does have a good point here. I am not going to condemn Saucey solely because he has voted for three innocents, but it does bear watching. And I think perhaps Kuru has earned the right to have his theory tried out. Besides, I am not nearly convinced of SpM's innocence, and his defense of his vote of the innocent phantom doesn't speak a lot to me. Any wolf (we're speaking hypothetically here) in question could wait until the vote was a tie or close to a tie & then vote for the innocent he was being tried against & say he did it in the interest of saving himself/preventing a double hanging. That does not necessarily make him innocent.

Originally posted by Estel:

It seems like SpM continued to suspect Fordim for sticking to his plan earlier, but then later decided Fordim was innocent for...uh, sticking to his plan.

Originally posted by SpM:

I see your point Estel. It occurred to me at the time. But those two statements were made at different times, with things being said and done in between.

And, although that sounds like I am being defensive (which I counselled against), there is a more general point to be made. We should not just be looking at specific statements and trying to find contradictions. Not at this stage. Eveyone here has, I think, changed their mind at some point or another (even Kuru, early on ). Our views have to change to respond to changing circumstances. I am not saying that specific statements are not important, but we should now be using them to form broader theories based on patterns of behaviour.

Of course changing your mind & theories is a part of the game. But it just didn't seem like there was all that much explanation for it, not to me at least. And I also hear you about specific statements, that is why I am trying to chew on SoN's broader theory of you & Fordim - with the help of some specific statements.